000
FXUS61 KGYX 180328
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1128 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THEN
STALL TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...STAYING JUST BEYOND THE
GULF OF MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL RACE
EASTWARD AND BRING MILD BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
1130PM UPDATE... HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY POP GRIDS TO SHOW A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS... AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE.
THIS IS THE REGION WHERE THE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED AND A FEW
BATCHES OF SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

930PM UPDATE: THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS ARE DRYING UP BUT WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS FORECAST. ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT FEW HOURS OTHERWISE NO CHANGES
NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION;
UPDATED TO DROP THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NOW THAT
ALL THE STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. PSM REPORTED WIND
GUST TO 54 KNOTS AS THE ONLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IN OUR FORECAST
AREA MOVED THROUGH JUST BEFORE 430 PM.

A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS
THE EVENING WEARS ON THE CONVECTION SHOULD END OR AT LEAST DROP
OFF DRAMATICALLY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
SEE RAINFALL. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH TO THE 50S
SOUTH AS WINDS DROP OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT SETTLES JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE RIDES EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES WHILE OUR NORTHERN ZONES WILL BE A BIT TOO FAR NORTH TO BE
IMPACTED BY THESE SYSTEMS AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING AN END TO ANY RAIN OVER SOUTHERN ZONES. ON TUESDAY THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER SOUTH WHILE
COOLER AIR COMING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME IN THE NORTH. OVERALL EXPECT HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE SLOWLY
IMPROVING WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY ON LONGWAVE
PATTERN BEFORE DIFFERENCES ARISE. THE GFS SHIFTS THE RIDGE AXIS
EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE
AXIS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE DIFFERENCES EXIT IN THE LONGWAVE SOLUTION...THE
MODEL SUITE DOES ADVERTISE A MEAN JET LOCATION NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER WHICH ALSO SERVES TO INCREASE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY FROM
THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND. A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS SUGGESTS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD.

IN THE DAILIES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL RACE
EASTWARD AND BRING MILD BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THEN VFR EXCEPT FOR AREAS
OF FOG LOWERING TO IFR OR MAYBE LOCALLY TO LIFR. VFR ON TUESDAY
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR IFR DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN AREAS THEN
IMPROVING AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

FRI...SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 4
FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL SLOWLY LOWER AS WINDS TURN OFFSHORE.
EXPECT THAT WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KBOX 180220
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1020 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

1030 PM UPDATE...

DIFFUSE COLD FRONT LINGERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MAINE. SOME RENEWED
ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...BUT WHILE
THE 0Z CHATHAM SOUNDING EXHIBITS THE POTENTIAL THREAT OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS...THE BROADER SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT WHILE CYCLONIC
CONTAINS LITTLE LIFT. NOT SEEING ANY INDICATIONS OF ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL ENERGY...NOR SUPPORT FROM UPPER-LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS. QUIET AND DRY FORECAST INTO MORNING...PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SHOWER TO COVER THE BASES.

SO ATTENTION TURNS TO OTHER POTENTIAL THREATS...NAMELY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG.

11-3.9 SATELLITE SHOWS A LOW CLOUD DECK OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND...
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN WITH OBSCURING MID-HIGH CLOUD. HRRR/RUC HAS
DONE VERY WELL THIS EVENING WITH HANDLING EARLIER THUNDERSTORM
REMNANTS. MODEL FORECAST SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE LOW CLOUDS DRIFTING
INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE TOWARDS MORNING...AND WILL
FOLLOW SUIT ACCORDINGLY. LOW STRATUS ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE.

ALSO...AM CONCERNED OVER THE ANTECEDENT RAINS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS
SETTING THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS TEMPERATURES DROP...BEST
CHANCES ALONG THE SHORES. WHILE THE HRRR/RUC DOES NOT FEEL THIS TO
BE THE CASE...WILL KEEP FOG IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN ON TRACK. LOOKS TO REMAIN MILD
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO THE DEWPOINT ALLOWING FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER RATHER TRICKY FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
BULK OF TUESDAY MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE DRY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS...HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND POSITION OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE SOUTH OF THE
MA TURNPIKE. THE BIGGER CONCERN MAY BE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING...AS PWAT VALUES WILL STILL BE ON THE ORDER OF
1.5 INCHES.

THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END
SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

BIG PICTURE/PREFERENCES...

UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WITH A SMALL AMOUNT
OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT.  BUILDING HEIGHTS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS EDGES EAST.  EVEN WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS...A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES SWEEP AROUND BAFFIN ISLAND UPPER LOW AND ACROSS
QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET...AND 70 PERCENT RH LINGERS AT 800-850 MB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING MAX
HEATING. FOR THIS REASON WE HAVE 40-60 PCT SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY.  THIS WILL BRING LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY.
MIXING DEPTHS WILL REACH 800 MB WEDNESDAY AND 800-850 MB THURSDAY.
MIXING THE TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THESE LAYERS WILL SUPPORT MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEAST WIND WEDNESDAY MAY BUFFER ANY
MIXING IN EASTERN MASS AND HOLD TEMPS THERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DUE TO THE ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH...FORECAST GRIDS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY...MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH
COOLING SEABREEZES EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT. WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH OFF THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST BY LATE EVENING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL PROBABLY GIVE WAY TO LOCALIZED
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANY PATCHY GROUND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. THE BULK OF
THE ACTIVITY ENDS SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING...BUT IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY GROUND FOG.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS.  ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS.  ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LINGERING SWELL OF AROUND 5 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE
NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY AFFECT SOME OF OUR COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WEDNESDAY BUT SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY.  WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. NE WINDS MAY
GUST TO 20 KT WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER AT
DOVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
RIVER WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING FROM CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THEM ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER STREAMS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK
MARINE...WTB/FRANK
HYDROLOGY...WFO BOX STAFF

000
FXUS61 KGYX 180130
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
930 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THEN
STALL TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...STAYING JUST BEYOND THE
GULF OF MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL RACE
EASTWARD AND BRING MILD BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930PM UPDATE: THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS ARE DRYING UP BUT WILL KEEP
THE CHC OF SHWRS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS FCST. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
TO TEMPS FOR NEXT FEW HRS OTRW NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISC;
UPDATED TO DROP THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NOW THAT
ALL THE STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. PSM REPORTED WIND
GUST TO 54 KNOTS AS THE ONLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IN OUR FORECAST
AREA MOVED THROUGH JUST BEFORE 430 PM.

A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS
THE EVENING WEARS ON THE CONVECTION SHOULD END OR AT LEAST DROP
OFF DRAMATICALLY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
SEE RAINFALL. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH TO THE 50S
SOUTH AS WINDS DROP OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT SETTLES JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE RIDES EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES WHILE OUR NORTHERN ZONES WILL BE A BIT TOO FAR NORTH TO BE
IMPACTED BY THESE SYSTEMS AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING AN END TO ANY RAIN OVER SOUTHERN ZONES. ON TUESDAY THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER SOUTH WHILE
COOLER AIR COMING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME IN THE NORTH. OVERALL EXPECT HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE SLOWLY
IMPROVING WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY ON LONGWAVE
PATTERN BEFORE DIFFERENCES ARISE. THE GFS SHIFTS THE RIDGE AXIS
EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE
AXIS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE DIFFERENCES EXIT IN THE LONGWAVE SOLUTION...THE
MODEL SUITE DOES ADVERTISE A MEAN JET LOCATION NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER WHICH ALSO SERVES TO INCREASE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY FROM
THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND. A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS SUGGESTS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD.

IN THE DAILIES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL RACE
EASTWARD AND BRING MILD BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THEN VFR EXCEPT FOR AREAS
OF FOG LOWERING TO IFR OR MAYBE LOCALLY TO LIFR. VFR ON TUESDAY
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR IFR DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN AREAS THEN
IMPROVING AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

FRI...SCT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 4
FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL SLOWLY LOWER AS WINDS TURN OFFSHORE.
EXPECT THAT WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KBOX 172345
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
742 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.  ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

740 PM UPDATE...

THE REST OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE
ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED.  A LINE OF WEAKENING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT RHODE ISLAND/SOUTHEAST
MA FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS MOVING OFF THE COAST.

A FEW OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NY STATE MAY WORK THERE
WAY INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THEY WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY.  EITHER WAY...AREAL
COVERAGE OF THEM WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.

OTHERWISE...THE MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD END UP DRY
ALTHOUGH WE CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SPOT SHOWER OR TWO.  THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP LATE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS WITH THE WET GROUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER RATHER TRICKY FORECAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE BULK OF TUESDAY MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE
DRY.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
 THIS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.  BASED ON THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION.

AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND POSITION OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS.  THEREFORE...WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE SOUTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE.  THE BIGGER CONCERN MAY BE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING...AS PWAT VALUES WILL STILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 INCHES.

THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END
SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING.  HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE/PREFERENCES...

UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WITH A SMALL AMOUNT
OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT.  BUILDING HEIGHTS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS EDGES EAST.  EVEN WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS...A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES SWEEP AROUND BAFFIN ISLAND UPPER LOW AND ACROSS
QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET...AND 70 PERCENT RH LINGERS AT 800-850 MB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING MAX
HEATING.  FOR THIS REASON WE HAVE 40-60 PCT SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY.  THIS WILL BRING LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY.
MIXING DEPTHS WILL REACH 800 MB WEDNESDAY AND 800-850 MB THURSDAY.
MIXING THE TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THESE LAYERS WILL SUPPORT MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEAST WIND WEDNESDAY MAY BUFFER ANY
MIXING IN EASTERN MASS AND HOLD TEMPS THERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... DUE TO THE ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH...FORECAST GRIDS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY... MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH
COOLING SEABREEZES EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT.  WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH OFF THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST BY LATE EVENING.  OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL PROBABLY GIVE WAY TO LOCALIZED MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS IN PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANY PATCHY GROUND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS.  THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ENDS SOMETIME TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY GROUND FOG.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS.  ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS.  ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LINGERING SWELL OF AROUND 5 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING.  OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE
NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MA.  ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY AFFECT SOME OF OUR COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WEDNESDAY BUT SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY.  WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. NE WINDS MAY
GUST TO 20 KT WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER AT
DOVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD.  LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
RIVER WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING FROM CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  HOWEVER...GIVEN RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THEM ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER STREAMS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/WTB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...FRANK/WTB
HYDROLOGY...STAFF

000
FXUS61 KBOX 172236
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
634 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.  ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...

630 PM UPDATE...

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM EASTERN
CONNECTICUT NORTHWARD NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90 EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS PRODUCED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL REPORTS OF PEA TO 3/4 INCH HAIL...BUT HAS BEEN
SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND. HEAVY RAIN WAS ALSO RESULTING IN AREAS OF
POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING.

THE LINE OF ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND EXIT MOST OF
THE REGION AFTER 9 OR 10 PM.  LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING WELL AHEAD OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...SO WE
EXPECT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND TO CONTINUE.  WILL CONTINUE TO
CANCEL THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH.

A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE.  THEY MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING...BUT
DIMNISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS ACTIVITY BELOW SEVERE
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LATE TONIGHT...
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD WIND DOWN BY LATE THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO MAY LINGER A BIT PAST MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...EXPECT MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO BE DRY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER RATHER TRICKY FORECAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE BULK OF TUESDAY MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE
DRY.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
 THIS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.  BASED ON THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION.

AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND POSITION OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS.  THEREFORE...WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE SOUTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE.  THE BIGGER CONCERN MAY BE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING...AS PWAT VALUES WILL STILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 INCHES.

THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END
SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING.  HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE/PREFERENCES...

UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WITH A SMALL AMOUNT
OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT.  BUILDING HEIGHTS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS EDGES EAST.  EVEN WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS...A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES SWEEP AROUND BAFFIN ISLAND UPPER LOW AND ACROSS
QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET...AND 70 PERCENT RH LINGERS AT 800-850 MB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING MAX
HEATING.  FOR THIS REASON WE HAVE 40-60 PCT SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY.  THIS WILL BRING LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY.
MIXING DEPTHS WILL REACH 800 MB WEDNESDAY AND 800-850 MB THURSDAY.
MIXING THE TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THESE LAYERS WILL SUPPORT MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEAST WIND WEDNESDAY MAY BUFFER ANY
MIXING IN EASTERN MASS AND HOLD TEMPS THERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... DUE TO THE ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH...FORECAST GRIDS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY... MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH
COOLING SEABREEZES EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT.  WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT...THE MAIN
CONCERN IS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE TIMING OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESULTING IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CONDITIONS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO ADVANCE EAST AND AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z.  TIMING IS STILL TRICKY...BUT ACTIVITY HITS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND FIRST AND THEN THE COASTAL PLAIN BY THIS EVENING.

THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE EVENING.
THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE BUT LOCALLY LOWERED
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY DOMINATE IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.  THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ENDS
SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING...BUT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
LATE IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY GROUND FOG.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS.  BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINAL ARE BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z THIS EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS.  BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINAL ARE BETWEEN
20Z AND 23Z.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LINGERING SWELL OF AROUND 5 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING.  OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE
NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MA.  ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY AFFECT SOME OF OUR COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WEDNESDAY BUT SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY.  WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. NE WINDS MAY
GUST TO 20 KT WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER AT
DOVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD.  LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
RIVER WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING FROM CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  HOWEVER...GIVEN RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THEM ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER STREAMS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/WTB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...FRANK/WTB
HYDROLOGY...STAFF

000
FXUS61 KGYX 172052
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
452 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THEN
STALL TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...STAYING JUST BEYOND THE
GULF OF MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL RACE
EASTWARD AND BRING MILD BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED TO DROP THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NOW THAT ALL THE
STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. PSM REPORTED WIND GUST TO 54
KNOTS AS THE ONLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IN OUR FORECAST AREA MOVED
THROUGH JUST BEFORE 430 PM.

A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS
THE EVENING WEARS ON THE CONVECTION SHOULD END OR AT LEAST DROP
OFF DRAMATICALLY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
SEE RAINFALL. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH TO THE 50S
SOUTH AS WINDS DROP OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT SETTLES JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE RIDES EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES WHILE OUR NORTHERN ZONES WILL BE A BIT TOO FAR NORTH TO BE
IMPACTED BY THESE SYSTEMS AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING AN END TO ANY RAIN OVER SOUTHERN ZONES. ON TUESDAY THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER SOUTH WHILE
COOLER AIR COMING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME IN THE NORTH. OVERALL EXPECT HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE SLOWLY
IMPROVING WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY ON LONGWAVE
PATTERN BEFORE DIFFERENCES ARISE. THE GFS SHIFTS THE RIDGE AXIS
EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE
AXIS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE DIFFERENCES EXIT IN THE LONGWAVE SOLUTION...THE
MODEL SUITE DOES ADVERTISE A MEAN JET LOCATION NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER WHICH ALSO SERVES TO INCREASE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY FROM
THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND. A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS SUGGESTS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD.

IN THE DAILIES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL RACE
EASTWARD AND BRING MILD BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THEN VFR EXCEPT FOR AREAS
OF FOG LOWERING TO IFR OR MAYBE LOCALLY TO LIFR. VFR ON TUESDAY
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR IFR DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN AREAS THEN
IMPROVING AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

FRI...SCT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 4
FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL SLOWLY LOWER AS WINDS TURN OFFSHORE.
EXPECT THAT WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KBOX 172039
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
439 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.  ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...

***SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
  THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING***

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  SPC MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS.  THE
MLCAPE VALUES WERE ONLY BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG SINCE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.  SO FAR...THIS
HAS RESULTED IN MANY THUNDERSTORMS STRUGGLING TO ATTAIN SEVERE
LIMITS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS DO SOME OF THESE STORMS BECOME SEVERE.  STILL
THINK THAT THERE IS STILL A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY ACROSS THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY IF THE DEWPOINTS INCREASE A FEW DEGREES LIKE
SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW.  STRONG SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...SO IF WE CAN INCREASE THE CAPES A BIT
MORE IT MAY NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO GET A FEW GOOD STORMS GOING.

THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM
THIS EVENING FOR ALL BUT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.  THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS.  HEAVY
RAIN AND LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

LATE TONIGHT...
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD WIND DOWN BY LATE THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO MAY LINGER A BIT PAST MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...EXPECT MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO BE DRY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER RATHER TRICKY FORECAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE BULK OF TUESDAY MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE
DRY.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
 THIS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.  BASED ON THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION.

AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND POSITION OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS.  THEREFORE...WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE SOUTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE.  THE BIGGER CONCERN MAY BE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING...AS PWAT VALUES WILL STILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 INCHES.

THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END
SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING.  HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE/PREFERENCES...

UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WITH A SMALL AMOUNT
OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT.  BUILDING HEIGHTS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS EDGES EAST.  EVEN WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS...A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES SWEEP AROUND BAFFIN ISLAND UPPER LOW AND ACROSS
QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET...AND 70 PERCENT RH LINGERS AT 800-850 MB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING MAX
HEATING.  FOR THIS REASON WE HAVE 40-60 PCT SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY.  THIS WILL BRING LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY.
MIXING DEPTHS WILL REACH 800 MB WEDNESDAY AND 800-850 MB THURSDAY.
MIXING THE TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THESE LAYERS WILL SUPPORT MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEAST WIND WEDNESDAY MAY BUFFER ANY
MIXING IN EASTERN MASS AND HOLD TEMPS THERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... DUE TO THE ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH...FORECAST GRIDS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY... MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH
COOLING SEABREEZES EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT.  WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT...THE MAIN
CONCERN IS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE TIMING OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESULTING IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CONDITIONS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO ADVANCE EAST AND AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z.  TIMING IS STILL TRICKY...BUT ACTIVITY HITS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND FIRST AND THEN THE COASTAL PLAIN BY THIS EVENING.

THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE EVENING.
THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE BUT LOCALLY LOWERED
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY DOMINATE IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.  THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ENDS
SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING...BUT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
LATE IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY GROUND FOG.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS.  BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINAL ARE BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z THIS EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS.  BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINAL ARE BETWEEN
20Z AND 23Z.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LINGERING SWELL OF AROUND 5 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING.  OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE
NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MA.  ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY AFFECT SOME OF OUR COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WEDNESDAY BUT SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY.  WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. NE WINDS MAY
GUST TO 20 KT WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER AT
DOVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD.  LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
RIVER WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING FROM CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  HOWEVER...GIVEN RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THEM ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER STREAMS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/WTB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...FRANK/WTB
HYDROLOGY...STAFF

000
FXUS61 KGYX 171912
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
312 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THEN
STALL TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...STAYING JUST BEYOND THE
GULF OF MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL RACE
EASTWARD AND BRING MILD BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM THIS
EVENING FOR OUR THREE SOUTHERN MOST NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES.
ELSEWHERE CONVECTION WON`T BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS INSTABILITY IS
MUCH LOWER. NOT MUCH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BUT FAIRLY STRONG SPEED
SHEAR WITH WESTERLY WINDS FAIRLY STRONG ALOFT. THIS COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHORT LINES AND BOW ECHOES TO PRODUCE STRONG/POSSIBLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SOME HAIL POSSIBLE...GETTING REPORTS OF PEA
SIZE HAIL IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

AS THE EVENING WEARS ON THE CONVECTION SHOULD END OR AT LEAST DROP
OFF DRAMATICALLY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
SEE RAINFALL. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH TO THE 50S
SOUTH AS WINDS DROP OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT SETTLES JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE RIDES EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES WHILE OUR NORTHERN ZONES WILL BE A BIT TOO FAR NORTH TO BE
IMPACTED BY THESE SYSTEMS AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING AN END TO ANY RAIN OVER SOUTHERN ZONES. ON TUESDAY THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER SOUTH WHILE
COOLER AIR COMING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME IN THE NORTH. OVERALL EXPECT HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE SLOWLY
IMPROVING WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY ON LONGWAVE
PATTERN BEFORE DIFFERENCES ARISE. THE GFS SHIFTS THE RIDGE AXIS
EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE
AXIS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE DIFFERENCES EXIT IN THE LONGWAVE SOLUTION...THE
MODEL SUITE DOES ADVERTISE A MEAN JET LOCATION NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER WHICH ALSO SERVES TO INCREASE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY FROM
THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND. A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS SUGGESTS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD.

IN THE DAILIES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL RACE
EASTWARD AND BRING MILD BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THEN VFR EXCEPT FOR AREAS
OF FOG LOWERING TO IFR OR MAYBE LOCALLY TO LIFR. VFR ON TUESDAY
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR IFR DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN AREAS THEN
IMPROVING AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

FRI...SCT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 4
FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL SLOWLY LOWER AS WINDS TURN OFFSHORE.
EXPECT THAT WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KBOX 171801
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
200 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE
OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THROUGH
9 PM THIS EVENING***

2 PM UPDATE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
UPSTATE NEW YORK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
HEADING EAST INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.  0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL
COMBINED WITH MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG IN
OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...A POTENT UPPER JET BETWEEN 90 AND 100
KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION.  THE INGREDIENTS ARE
CERTAINLY IN PLACE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
ACTIVITY WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL LAST UNTIL AROUND 8 PM
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT SOME OF THE ACTIVITY
PERSISTING ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WIND GUSTS.  IN FACT...A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE
WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS GIVEN GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR
AND COLD 500 MB TEMPS.  THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW GIVEN MAINLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS...BUT CAN/T RULE ONE OUT GIVEN MAGNITUDE
OF SHEAR AND IF SOME MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS CAN OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALLS IN VICINITY OF
CT/RI AND SE MA AS IT PARALLELS UPPER LVL FLOW. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AND THEN DIMINISH TO
-SHRA AS THE BL DECOUPLES DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. A FEW STORMS MAY
LINGER TO THE COAST LINES SO MAY NEED TO WATCH THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT EVEN AS STORMS WEAKEN OVERLAND. OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED -SHRA AROUND
GIVEN THE LIFT THE FRONT PROVIDES AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLUMN
MOISTURE. DWPTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THE THE
FRONT...SO EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
HAVE RAIN RAISING SFC MOISTURE.

TUESDAY...
TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DAY. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR LIFT...AND DWPTS WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CAPE VALUES TO ONCE AGAIN REBOUND TO
1000+ J/KG...THE QUESTION WILL BE AVAILABLE SUNSHINE. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME BKN CLOUDS IN THE REGION THROUGH
SUNRISE WHICH WOULD SLOW DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SUN
BREAK OUT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AS MUCH IF NOT
MORE INSTABILITY THAN MONDAY. SHEAR WILL BE MUCH THE SAME AS
WELL...40-50 KT FROM 0-6 KM. SPC STILL FOCUSES A SEE TEXT SO WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WHICH AT LEAST HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG-SEVERE.

TEMPS UNDER BKN-OVC SKIES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN MON...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ALTHOUGH UNDER SUNSHINE COULD REACH CLOSER TO 80+
ESPECIALLY S OF THE STALLED FRONT. HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH DWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
FRONT...BUT IN NH THE DWPTS WILL BE LOWER FURTHER BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

BIG PICTURE/PREFERENCES...

UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WITH A SMALL AMOUNT
OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT.  BUILDING HEIGHTS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS EDGES EAST.  EVEN WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS...A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES SWEEP AROUND BAFFIN ISLAND UPPER LOW AND ACROSS
QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET...AND 70 PERCENT RH LINGERS AT 800-850 MB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING MAX
HEATING.  FOR THIS REASON WE HAVE 40-60 PCT SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY.  THIS WILL BRING LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY.
MIXING DEPTHS WILL REACH 800 MB WEDNESDAY AND 800-850 MB THURSDAY.
MIXING THE TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THESE LAYERS WILL SUPPORT MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEAST WIND WEDNESDAY MAY BUFFER ANY
MIXING IN EASTERN MASS AND HOLD TEMPS THERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... DUE TO THE ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH...FORECAST GRIDS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY... MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH
COOLING SEABREEZES EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT.  WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT...THE MAIN
CONCERN IS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE TIMING OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESULTING IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CONDITIONS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO ADVANCE EAST AND AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z.  TIMING IS STILL TRICKY...BUT ACTIVITY HITS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND FIRST AND THEN THE COASTAL PLAIN BY THIS EVENING.

THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE EVENING.
THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE BUT LOCALLY LOWERED
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY DOMINATE IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.  THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ENDS
SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING...BUT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
LATE IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY GROUND FOG.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS.  BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINAL ARE BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z THIS EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS.  BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINAL ARE BETWEEN
20Z AND 23Z.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY..

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW TODAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 10-15 KT ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR 20-25 KT AGAIN NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW THE
5-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATER S OF RI/MA TO PERSIST SO WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME T-STORMS WHICH MAY REACH THE COASTLINE
BY THE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG AND
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME REDUCTION IN VSBYS.

TUESDAY...
A STALLED FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY OF THESE STORMS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WEDNESDAY BUT SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY.  WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. NE WINDS MAY
GUST TO 20 KT WED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER
AT DOVER AND THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE HEAVY RAIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD AND MAY ALTER THE TIMING
OF RIVERS OR EVEN ALLOW THEM TO RISE AGAIN AS WELL. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED.

RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 400AM.

IN MA... CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND REMAINS STEADY

THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI
HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER HAS FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE.

REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...KJC/WTB
HYDROLOGY...STAFF

000
FXUS61 KBOX 171745
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
  AND EVENING***

1225 PM UPDATE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
UPSTATE NEW YORK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
HEADING EAST INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.  0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL
COMBINED WITH MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG IN
OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...A POTENT UPPER JET BETWEEN 90 AND 100
KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION.  THE INGREDIENTS ARE
CERTAINLY IN PLACE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO MARCH ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AFTER 1 PM.  THE ACTIVITY WILL FIRST AFFECT
INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THEN MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
LAST UNTIL AROUND 8 PM THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
OF THE ACTIVITY PERSISTING ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WIND GUSTS.  IN FACT...A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE
WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS GIVEN GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR
AND COLD 500 MB TEMPS.  THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW GIVEN MAINLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS...BUT CAN/T RULE ONE OUT GIVEN MAGNITUDE
OF SHEAR AND IF SOME MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS CAN OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALLS IN VICINITY OF
CT/RI AND SE MA AS IT PARALLELS UPPER LVL FLOW. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AND THEN DIMINISH TO
-SHRA AS THE BL DECOUPLES DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. A FEW STORMS MAY
LINGER TO THE COAST LINES SO MAY NEED TO WATCH THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT EVEN AS STORMS WEAKEN OVERLAND. OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED -SHRA AROUND
GIVEN THE LIFT THE FRONT PROVIDES AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLUMN
MOISTURE. DWPTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THE THE
FRONT...SO EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
HAVE RAIN RAISING SFC MOISTURE.

TUESDAY...
TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DAY. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR LIFT...AND DWPTS WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CAPE VALUES TO ONCE AGAIN REBOUND TO
1000+ J/KG...THE QUESTION WILL BE AVAILABLE SUNSHINE. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME BKN CLOUDS IN THE REGION THROUGH
SUNRISE WHICH WOULD SLOW DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SUN
BREAK OUT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AS MUCH IF NOT
MORE INSTABILITY THAN MONDAY. SHEAR WILL BE MUCH THE SAME AS
WELL...40-50 KT FROM 0-6 KM. SPC STILL FOCUSES A SEE TEXT SO WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WHICH AT LEAST HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG-SEVERE.

TEMPS UNDER BKN-OVC SKIES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN MON...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ALTHOUGH UNDER SUNSHINE COULD REACH CLOSER TO 80+
ESPECIALLY S OF THE STALLED FRONT. HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH DWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
FRONT...BUT IN NH THE DWPTS WILL BE LOWER FURTHER BEHIND THE
FRONT.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CHC SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY S OF THE MASS PIKE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO
THE COAST. THE FRONT AND ANY SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

BIG PICTURE/PREFERENCES... UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT.  BUILDING
HEIGHTS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSRUE OVER THE PLAINS EDGES EAST.  EVEN
WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES SWEEP AROUND
BAFFIN ISLAND UPPER LOW AND ACROSS QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET...AND 70 PERCENT RH LINGERS AT 800-850 MB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING MAX
HEATING.  FOR THIS REASON WE HAVE 40-60 PCT SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY.  THIS WILL BRING LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY.
MIXING DEPTHS WILL REACH 800 MB WEDNESDAY AND 800-850 MB THURSDAY.
MIXING THE TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THESE LAYERS WILL SUPPORT MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEAST WIND WEDNESDAY MAY BUFFER ANY
MIXING IN EASTERN MASS AND HOLD TEMPS THERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... DUE TO THE ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH...FORECAST GRIDS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY... MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH
COOLING SEABREEZES EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT.  WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
           LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/T-STORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY

VFR IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY FORM
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PARTICULARLY INLAND
AND AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AND
WET RUNWAYS.

THE STORMS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
TO BE AROUND AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD THE W
AGAIN. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS...WITH SOME
STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE S COAST
PRODUCING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

VFR ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES TUE OUTSIDE OF FOG/STRATUS...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...THIS TIME IT MAY
APPROACH THE COASTLINES.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/T-STORM LATE TODAY OR
OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE EVENING. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY..

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW TODAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 10-15 KT ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR 20-25 KT AGAIN NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW THE
5-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATER S OF RI/MA TO PERSIST SO WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME T-STORMS WHICH MAY REACH THE COASTLINE
BY THE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG AND
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME REDUCTION IN VSBYS.

TUESDAY...
A STALLED FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY OF THESE STORMS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WEDNESDAY BUT SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY.  WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. NE WINDS MAY
GUST TO 20 KT WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER
AT DOVER AND THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE HEAVY RAIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD AND MAY ALTER THE TIMING
OF RIVERS OR EVEN ALLOW THEM TO RISE AGAIN AS WELL. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED.

RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 400AM.

IN MA... CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND REMAINS STEADY

THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI
HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER HAS FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE.

REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK
MARINE...WTB/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KGYX 171729
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
129 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...PUSHING
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT....BRINGING SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL
FINALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE TO ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR OUR FOUR SOUTHERN
MOST NEW HAMPSHIRE ZONES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST AND INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS... COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE... WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL CAPE VALUES OF 400 TO 800 ARE EXPECTED BY
EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING UNCAPPED BY AROUND
NOON. ANY AREAS WHICH CAN HOLD OFF ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY COULD POTENTIALLY TAP INTO BETTER INSTABILITY.
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
ARRIVE AROUND MID AFTERNOON AND WILL TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WIND PROFILES
TODAY SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SPEED SHEAR WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD GAIN BETTER ORGANIZATION INTO
LINES OR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER... THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT... DO NOT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY... THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS OR SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IF THUNDERSTORMS
GET ORGANIZED INTO LINES OR CLUSTERS OR IF CONVECTION IS
SUPPRESSED UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY LEADING TO GREATER INSTABILITY.
THE GREATEST THREAT AREA WOULD PROBABLY BE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. MAV
FORECAST HIGH OF 86 IN CONCORD SEEMED A BIT TOO HIGH... BUT IF
SHOWERS AND STORMS DO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY THEN MID 80S
ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
EXPECT AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN BY THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND IT TO THE NORTH... BUT
THE HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG RIDGE AT 500 MB WILL HOLD IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...WEAKLY AMPLIFIED
TROUGHING WILL HOLD TO OUR NORTH...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD.
SO...AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT...LOOK FOR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...MAXES IN THE 70S...MINS IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH GENERALLY DRY AIR...FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING THE
RIDGING ALOFT TO SHIFT EAST. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT WORKS THROUGH. WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR WORKS IN FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE AS TO HOW
QUICKLY AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...BUT ULTIMATELY THIS COULD
PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION/CONVECTION SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START
THE DAY... BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY FORM BY
16-20Z. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS AT EACH TERMINAL IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN MOST TAFS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE EAST THIS EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ON TUESDAY IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE.

LONG TERM...SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG...AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS ON
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...WILL UPDATE TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT BUOY
REPORTS. MOSTLY A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AND
SEAS UP TO 4 FEET OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF
A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH COULD INCREASE SWELL LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KBOX 171629
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1226 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
  AND EVENING***

1225 PM UPDATE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
UPSTATE NEW YORK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
HEADING EAST INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.  0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL
COMBINED WITH MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG IN
OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...A POTENT UPPER JET BETWEEN 90 AND 100
KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION.  THE INGREDIENTS ARE
CERTAINLY IN PLACE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO MARCH ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AFTER 1 PM.  THE ACTIVITY WILL FIRST AFFECT
INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THEN MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
LAST UNTIL AROUND 8 PM THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
OF THE ACTIVITY PERSISTING ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WIND GUSTS.  IN FACT...A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE
WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS GIVEN GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR
AND COLD 500 MB TEMPS.  THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW GIVEN MAINLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS...BUT CAN/T RULE ONE OUT GIVEN MAGNITUDE
OF SHEAR AND IF SOME MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS CAN OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALLS IN VICINITY OF
CT/RI AND SE MA AS IT PARALLELS UPPER LVL FLOW. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AND THEN DIMINISH TO
-SHRA AS THE BL DECOUPLES DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. A FEW STORMS MAY
LINGER TO THE COAST LINES SO MAY NEED TO WATCH THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT EVEN AS STORMS WEAKEN OVERLAND. OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED -SHRA AROUND
GIVEN THE LIFT THE FRONT PROVIDES AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLUMN
MOISTURE. DWPTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THE THE
FRONT...SO EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
HAVE RAIN RAISING SFC MOISTURE.

TUESDAY...
TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DAY. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR LIFT...AND DWPTS WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CAPE VALUES TO ONCE AGAIN REBOUND TO
1000+ J/KG...THE QUESTION WILL BE AVAILABLE SUNSHINE. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME BKN CLOUDS IN THE REGION THROUGH
SUNRISE WHICH WOULD SLOW DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SUN
BREAK OUT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AS MUCH IF NOT
MORE INSTABILITY THAN MONDAY. SHEAR WILL BE MUCH THE SAME AS
WELL...40-50 KT FROM 0-6 KM. SPC STILL FOCUSES A SEE TEXT SO WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WHICH AT LEAST HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG-SEVERE.

TEMPS UNDER BKN-OVC SKIES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN MON...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ALTHOUGH UNDER SUNSHINE COULD REACH CLOSER TO 80+
ESPECIALLY S OF THE STALLED FRONT. HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH DWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
FRONT...BUT IN NH THE DWPTS WILL BE LOWER FURTHER BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
* MORE HUMID NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS

OVERVIEW...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH POLAR JET
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE N BUT BROAD TROF REMAINING ACROSS THE
NE...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. GFS AND
ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT DURING NEXT WEEKEND AS MIDWEST RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD EWD.  GFS BRINGS A PIECE OF THIS HEAT INTO SNE AS IT
IS DEPICTING MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS GT LAKES INTO NEW ENG...
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM TROF AND NW
FLOW ACROSS SNE WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT AND HEAT TO THE SW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT WE LEANED
TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION.  THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL INCREASE BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
CHC SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY S OF THE
MASS PIKE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST.  THE FRONT AND ANY
SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER NEAR
THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WED MORNING AS
CLEARING MOVES INTO NORTHERN ZONES. THIS CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS REST OF SNE DURING WEDNESDAY.  NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE 70S EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH NE FLOW AND SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH
PRES IN CONTROL.  TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH COOLING SEABREEZES
EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT.  WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
           LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/T-STORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY

VFR IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY FORM
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PARTICULARLY INLAND
AND AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AND
WET RUNWAYS.

THE STORMS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
TO BE AROUND AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD THE W
AGAIN. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS...WITH SOME
STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE S COAST
PRODUCING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

VFR ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES TUE OUTSIDE OF FOG/STRATUS...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...THIS TIME IT MAY
APPROACH THE COASTLINES.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/T-STORM LATE TODAY OR
OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE EVENING. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY..

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW TODAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 10-15 KT ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR 20-25 KT AGAIN NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW THE
5-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATER S OF RI/MA TO PERSIST SO WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME T-STORMS WHICH MAY REACH THE COASTLINE
BY THE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG AND
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME REDUCTION IN VSBYS.

TUESDAY...
A STALLED FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY OF THESE STORMS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE
WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER
AT DOVER AND THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE HEAVY RAIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD AND MAY ALTER THE TIMING
OF RIVERS OR EVEN ALLOW THEM TO RISE AGAIN AS WELL. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED.

RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 400AM.

IN MA... CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND REMAINS STEADY

THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI
HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER HAS FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE.

REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...STAFF

000
FXUS61 KGYX 171606
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1206 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...PUSHING
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT....BRINGING SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL
FINALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
PER LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR. ECHOES SHOWING UP IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES BUT NOT ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE JUST
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST AND INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS... COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE... WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL CAPE VALUES OF 400 TO 800 ARE EXPECTED BY
EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING UNCAPPED BY AROUND
NOON. ANY AREAS WHICH CAN HOLD OFF ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY COULD POTENTIALLY TAP INTO BETTER INSTABILITY.
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
ARRIVE AROUND MID AFTERNOON AND WILL TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WIND PROFILES
TODAY SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SPEED SHEAR WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD GAIN BETTER ORGANIZATION INTO
LINES OR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER... THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT... DO NOT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY... THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS OR SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IF THUNDERSTORMS
GET ORGANIZED INTO LINES OR CLUSTERS OR IF CONVECTION IS
SUPPRESSED UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY LEADING TO GREATER INSTABILITY.
THE GREATEST THREAT AREA WOULD PROBABLY BE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. MAV
FORECAST HIGH OF 86 IN CONCORD SEEMED A BIT TOO HIGH... BUT IF
SHOWERS AND STORMS DO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY THEN MID 80S
ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
EXPECT AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN BY THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND IT TO THE NORTH... BUT
THE HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG RIDGE AT 500 MB WILL HOLD IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...WEAKLY AMPLIFIED
TROUGHING WILL HOLD TO OUR NORTH...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD.
SO...AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT...LOOK FOR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...MAXES IN THE 70S...MINS IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH GENERALLY DRY AIR...FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING THE
RIDGING ALOFT TO SHIFT EAST. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT WORKS THROUGH. WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR WORKS IN FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE AS TO HOW
QUICKLY AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...BUT ULTIMATELY THIS COULD
PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION/CONVECTION SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START
THE DAY... BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY FORM BY
16-20Z. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS AT EACH TERMINAL IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN MOST TAFS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE EAST THIS EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ON TUESDAY IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE.

LONG TERM...SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG...AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS ON
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...WILL UPDATE TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT BUOY
REPORTS. MOSTLY A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AND
SEAS UP TO 4 FEET OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF
A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH COULD INCREASE SWELL LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KGYX 171353
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
953 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...PUSHING
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT....BRINGING SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL
FINALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL UPDATE TO LOWER CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST AND INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS... COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE... WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL CAPE VALUES OF 400 TO 800 ARE EXPECTED BY
EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING UNCAPPED BY AROUND
NOON. ANY AREAS WHICH CAN HOLD OFF ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY COULD POTENTIALLY TAP INTO BETTER INSTABILITY.
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
ARRIVE AROUND MID AFTERNOON AND WILL TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WIND PROFILES
TODAY SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SPEED SHEAR WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD GAIN BETTER ORGANIZATION INTO
LINES OR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER... THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT... DO NOT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY... THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS OR SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IF THUNDERSTORMS
GET ORGANIZED INTO LINES OR CLUSTERS OR IF CONVECTION IS
SUPPRESSED UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY LEADING TO GREATER INSTABILITY.
THE GREATEST THREAT AREA WOULD PROBABLY BE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. MAV
FORECAST HIGH OF 86 IN CONCORD SEEMED A BIT TOO HIGH... BUT IF
SHOWERS AND STORMS DO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY THEN MID 80S
ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
EXPECT AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN BY THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND IT TO THE NORTH... BUT
THE HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG RIDGE AT 500 MB WILL HOLD IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...WEAKLY AMPLIFIED
TROUGHING WILL HOLD TO OUR NORTH...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD.
SO...AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT...LOOK FOR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...MAXES IN THE 70S...MINS IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH GENERALLY DRY AIR...FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING THE
RIDGING ALOFT TO SHIFT EAST. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT WORKS THROUGH. WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR WORKS IN FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE AS TO HOW
QUICKLY AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...BUT ULTIMATELY THIS COULD
PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION/CONVECTION SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START
THE DAY... BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY FORM BY
16-20Z. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS AT EACH TERMINAL IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN MOST TAFS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE EAST THIS EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ON TUESDAY IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE.

LONG TERM...SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG...AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS ON
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...WILL UPDATE TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA. WILL LOWER THE SEAS FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
BASED ON CURRENT BUOY REPORTS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GUST AROUND 20
KNOTS AND SEAS BUILD TO 4 FEET OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH COULD INCREASE SWELL LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KBOX 171343
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
938 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

935 AM UPDATE...

***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING***

A RATHER INTERESTING SETUP FOR OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A MIXTURE
OF CLOUDS AND SUN THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE
CAPE/ISLANDS.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  SPC MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWING 50 KNOTS
OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE.  THE UPPER JET IS ALSO QUITE
IMPRESSIVE WITH 90 TO 100 KNOTS. WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE NOT HAS HIGH AS
WE LIKE TO SEE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...ITS QUITE COLD ALOFT WITH 500 MB
TEMPS AROUND -14C. THIS SHOULD YIELD 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON.

GIVE THE FACT THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT DECENT CAPE COMBINED WITH VERY
GOOD WIND FIELDS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS AND/OR LARGE
HAIL.  THE PRIMARY TIME OF CONCERN IS BETWEEN 2 PM AND 10 PM THIS
EVENING.

WE DID NOTICE THAT MANY MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH QPF THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  THAT MAY BE A RESULT OF A LACK OF FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH MAY LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...THAT MAY ALLOW ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION TO BECOME SEVERE
RATHER QUICKLY GIVEN LESS COMPETITION BETWEEN STORMS.  IN FACT...A
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
GOLF BALLS GIVEN GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND COLD 500 MB TEMPS.
THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW GIVEN MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
FIELDS...BUT CAN/T RULE ONE OUT GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR AND IF SOME
MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS CAN OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALLS IN VICINITY OF
CT/RI AND SE MA AS IT PARALLELS UPPER LVL FLOW. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AND THEN DIMINISH TO
-SHRA AS THE BL DECOUPLES DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. A FEW STORMS MAY
LINGER TO THE COAST LINES SO MAY NEED TO WATCH THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT EVEN AS STORMS WEAKEN OVERLAND. OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED -SHRA AROUND
GIVEN THE LIFT THE FRONT PROVIDES AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLUMN
MOISTURE. DWPTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THE THE
FRONT...SO EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
HAVE RAIN RAISING SFC MOISTURE.

TUESDAY...
TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DAY. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR LIFT...AND DWPTS WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CAPE VALUES TO ONCE AGAIN REBOUND TO
1000+ J/KG...THE QUESTION WILL BE AVAILABLE SUNSHINE. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME BKN CLOUDS IN THE REGION THROUGH
SUNRISE WHICH WOULD SLOW DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SUN
BREAK OUT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AS MUCH IF NOT
MORE INSTABILITY THAN MONDAY. SHEAR WILL BE MUCH THE SAME AS
WELL...40-50 KT FROM 0-6 KM. SPC STILL FOCUSES A SEE TEXT SO WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WHICH AT LEAST HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG-SEVERE.

TEMPS UNDER BKN-OVC SKIES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN MON...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ALTHOUGH UNDER SUNSHINE COULD REACH CLOSER TO 80+
ESPECIALLY S OF THE STALLED FRONT. HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH DWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
FRONT...BUT IN NH THE DWPTS WILL BE LOWER FURTHER BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
* MORE HUMID NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS

OVERVIEW...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH POLAR JET
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE N BUT BROAD TROF REMAINING ACROSS THE
NE...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. GFS AND
ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT DURING NEXT WEEKEND AS MIDWEST RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD EWD.  GFS BRINGS A PIECE OF THIS HEAT INTO SNE AS IT
IS DEPICTING MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS GT LAKES INTO NEW ENG...
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM TROF AND NW
FLOW ACROSS SNE WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT AND HEAT TO THE SW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT WE LEANED
TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION.  THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL INCREASE BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
CHC SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY S OF THE
MASS PIKE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST.  THE FRONT AND ANY
SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER NEAR
THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WED MORNING AS
CLEARING MOVES INTO NORTHERN ZONES. THIS CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS REST OF SNE DURING WEDNESDAY.  NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE 70S EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH NE FLOW AND SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH
PRES IN CONTROL.  TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH COOLING SEABREEZES
EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT.  WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
           LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/T-STORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY

VFR IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY FORM
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PARTICULARLY INLAND
AND AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AND
WET RUNWAYS.

THE STORMS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
TO BE AROUND AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD THE W
AGAIN. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS...WITH SOME
STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE S COAST
PRODUCING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

VFR ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES TUE OUTSIDE OF FOG/STRATUS...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...THIS TIME IT MAY
APPROACH THE COASTLINES.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/T-STORM LATE TODAY OR
OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE EVENING. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY..

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW TODAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 10-15 KT ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR 20-25 KT AGAIN NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW THE
5-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATER S OF RI/MA TO PERSIST SO WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME T-STORMS WHICH MAY REACH THE COASTLINE
BY THE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG AND
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME REDUCTION IN VSBYS.

TUESDAY...
A STALLED FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY OF THESE STORMS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE
WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER
AT DOVER AND THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE HEAVY RAIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD AND MAY ALTER THE TIMING
OF RIVERS OR EVEN ALLOW THEM TO RISE AGAIN AS WELL. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED.

RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 400AM.

IN MA... CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND REMAINS STEADY

THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI
HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER HAS FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE.

REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...STAFF

000
FXUS61 KBOX 171338
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
938 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

935 AM UPDATE...

***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING***

A RATHER INTERESTING SETUP FOR OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A MIXTURE
OF CLOUDS AND SUN THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE
CAPE/ISLANDS.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  SPC MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWING 50 KNOTS
OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE.  THE UPPER JET IS ALSO QUITE
IMPRESSIVE WITH 90 TO 100 KNOTS. WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE NOT HAS HIGH AS
WE LIKE TO SEE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...ITS QUITE COLD ALOFT WITH 500 MB
TEMPS AROUND -14C. THIS SHOULD YIELD 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON.

GIVE THE FACT THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT DECENT CAPE COMBINED WITH VERY
GOOD WIND FIELDS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS AND/OR LARGE
HAIL.

WE DID NOTICE THAT MANY MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH QPF THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  THAT MAY BE A RESULT OF A LACK OF FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH MAY LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...THAT MAY ALLOW ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION TO BECOME SEVERE
RATHER QUICKLY GIVEN LESS COMPETITION BETWEEN STORMS.  IN FACT...A
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
GOLF BALLS GIVEN GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND COLD 500 MB TEMPS.
THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW GIVEN MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
FIELDS...BUT CAN/T RULE ONE OUT GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR AND IF SOME
MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS CAN OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALLS IN VICINITY OF
CT/RI AND SE MA AS IT PARALLELS UPPER LVL FLOW. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AND THEN DIMINISH TO
-SHRA AS THE BL DECOUPLES DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. A FEW STORMS MAY
LINGER TO THE COAST LINES SO MAY NEED TO WATCH THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT EVEN AS STORMS WEAKEN OVERLAND. OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED -SHRA AROUND
GIVEN THE LIFT THE FRONT PROVIDES AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLUMN
MOISTURE. DWPTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THE THE
FRONT...SO EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
HAVE RAIN RAISING SFC MOISTURE.

TUESDAY...
TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DAY. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR LIFT...AND DWPTS WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CAPE VALUES TO ONCE AGAIN REBOUND TO
1000+ J/KG...THE QUESTION WILL BE AVAILABLE SUNSHINE. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME BKN CLOUDS IN THE REGION THROUGH
SUNRISE WHICH WOULD SLOW DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SUN
BREAK OUT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AS MUCH IF NOT
MORE INSTABILITY THAN MONDAY. SHEAR WILL BE MUCH THE SAME AS
WELL...40-50 KT FROM 0-6 KM. SPC STILL FOCUSES A SEE TEXT SO WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WHICH AT LEAST HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG-SEVERE.

TEMPS UNDER BKN-OVC SKIES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN MON...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ALTHOUGH UNDER SUNSHINE COULD REACH CLOSER TO 80+
ESPECIALLY S OF THE STALLED FRONT. HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH DWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
FRONT...BUT IN NH THE DWPTS WILL BE LOWER FURTHER BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
* MORE HUMID NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS

OVERVIEW...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH POLAR JET
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE N BUT BROAD TROF REMAINING ACROSS THE
NE...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. GFS AND
ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT DURING NEXT WEEKEND AS MIDWEST RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD EWD.  GFS BRINGS A PIECE OF THIS HEAT INTO SNE AS IT
IS DEPICTING MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS GT LAKES INTO NEW ENG...
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM TROF AND NW
FLOW ACROSS SNE WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT AND HEAT TO THE SW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT WE LEANED
TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION.  THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL INCREASE BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
CHC SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY S OF THE
MASS PIKE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST.  THE FRONT AND ANY
SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER NEAR
THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WED MORNING AS
CLEARING MOVES INTO NORTHERN ZONES. THIS CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS REST OF SNE DURING WEDNESDAY.  NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE 70S EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH NE FLOW AND SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH
PRES IN CONTROL.  TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH COOLING SEABREEZES
EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT.  WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
           LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/T-STORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY

VFR IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY FORM
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PARTICULARLY INLAND
AND AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AND
WET RUNWAYS.

THE STORMS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
TO BE AROUND AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD THE W
AGAIN. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS...WITH SOME
STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE S COAST
PRODUCING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

VFR ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES TUE OUTSIDE OF FOG/STRATUS...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...THIS TIME IT MAY
APPROACH THE COASTLINES.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/T-STORM LATE TODAY OR
OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE EVENING. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY..

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW TODAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 10-15 KT ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR 20-25 KT AGAIN NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW THE
5-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATER S OF RI/MA TO PERSIST SO WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME T-STORMS WHICH MAY REACH THE COASTLINE
BY THE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG AND
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME REDUCTION IN VSBYS.

TUESDAY...
A STALLED FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY OF THESE STORMS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE
WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER
AT DOVER AND THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE HEAVY RAIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD AND MAY ALTER THE TIMING
OF RIVERS OR EVEN ALLOW THEM TO RISE AGAIN AS WELL. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED.

RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 400AM.

IN MA... CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND REMAINS STEADY

THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI
HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER HAS FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE.

REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...STAFF

000
FXUS61 KBOX 171125
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
725 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
715 AM UPDATE...
CI SHIELD ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IS MOVING TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT
LOTS OF MORNING SUNSHINE...WITH SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH IS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE KEY AND LATEST FORECASTS SUGGEST MLCAPES
OF 1000+ J/KG WHICH WOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE WX.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE OTHER ISSUE OF NOTE TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT
SLIDES S WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN KIND OF
BACK AND FORTH ON THIS POTENTIAL BUT RECENT RUNS ARE ALL
BEGINNING TO  CONVERGE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF UP TO 1000 J/KG
SBCAPE BY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WITH SUNSHINE /WHICH IS EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY/. NAM IS A BIT MORE ROBUST HERE BUT IS KEYING
ON HIGHER DWPTS THAN MUCH OF THE MESOSCALE AND GFS/ECMWF
MODELS...SO LEANED AWAY FROM IT/S SOLUTION FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE
TO WATCH THIS BECAUSE DWPTS CLOSER TO THE MID 60S ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING 1500+ J/KG INSTEAD. LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST AT ABOUT
6-6.5C/KM ALTHOUGH GFS HAS STEEPENED THESE SOMEWHAT.

WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AM NOTING UP TO 20-30 KT AND
40-50 KT OF SHEAR AT 0-3 AND 0-6 KM RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE...EVEN
THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS ONE MIGHT NORMALLY LOOK
FOR...THE SHEAR SUGGESTS STORMS COULD BECOME ORGANIZED INTO AT
LEAST ORGANIZED MULTI-CELLS STRUCTURES. COMBINE THIS WITH DECENT
D-CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR A WIND
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. HELD OFF ON HAIL THREAT /ALTHOUGH ITS
NON-ZERO/ DUE TO SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THEIR MAY BE A BIT OF A MID
LVL WARM LAYER LIMITING HAIL CAPE. PWAT VALUES OF 1.0 INCHES PLUS
COULD ALSO CREATE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN.

TAKING ALL OF THIS INTO ACCOUNT...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST SOME
ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. MASS FIELDS SAYS THIS FIELD RIGHT AROUND PEAK
HEATING. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER UPGRADING THIS WORDING AS NEW MESO-
SCALE GUIDANCE COMES IN AS THERE IS DEFINITE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONG- SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALLS IN VICINITY OF
CT/RI AND SE MA AS IT PARALLELS UPPER LVL FLOW. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AND THEN DIMINISH TO
-SHRA AS THE BL DECOUPLES DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. A FEW STORMS MAY
LINGER TO THE COAST LINES SO MAY NEED TO WATCH THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT EVEN AS STORMS WEAKEN OVERLAND. OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED -SHRA AROUND
GIVEN THE LIFT THE FRONT PROVIDES AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLUMN
MOISTURE. DWPTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THE THE
FRONT...SO EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
HAVE RAIN RAISING SFC MOISTURE.

TUESDAY...
TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DAY. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR LIFT...AND DWPTS WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CAPE VALUES TO ONCE AGAIN REBOUND TO
1000+ J/KG...THE QUESTION WILL BE AVAILABLE SUNSHINE. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME BKN CLOUDS IN THE REGION THROUGH
SUNRISE WHICH WOULD SLOW DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SUN
BREAK OUT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AS MUCH IF NOT
MORE INSTABILITY THAN MONDAY. SHEAR WILL BE MUCH THE SAME AS
WELL...40-50 KT FROM 0-6 KM. SPC STILL FOCUSES A SEE TEXT SO WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WHICH AT LEAST HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG-SEVERE.

TEMPS UNDER BKN-OVC SKIES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN MON...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ALTHOUGH UNDER SUNSHINE COULD REACH CLOSER TO 80+
ESPECIALLY S OF THE STALLED FRONT. HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH DWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
FRONT...BUT IN NH THE DWPTS WILL BE LOWER FURTHER BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
* MORE HUMID NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS

OVERVIEW...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH POLAR JET
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE N BUT BROAD TROF REMAINING ACROSS THE
NE...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. GFS AND
ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT DURING NEXT WEEKEND AS MIDWEST RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD EWD.  GFS BRINGS A PIECE OF THIS HEAT INTO SNE AS IT
IS DEPICTING MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS GT LAKES INTO NEW ENG...
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM TROF AND NW
FLOW ACROSS SNE WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT AND HEAT TO THE SW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT WE LEANED
TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION.  THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL INCREASE BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
CHC SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY S OF THE
MASS PIKE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST.  THE FRONT AND ANY
SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER NEAR
THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WED MORNING AS
CLEARING MOVES INTO NORTHERN ZONES. THIS CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS REST OF SNE DURING WEDNESDAY.  NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE 70S EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH NE FLOW AND SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH
PRES IN CONTROL.  TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH COOLING SEABREEZES
EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT.  WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
           LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/T-STORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY

VFR IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY FORM
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PARTICULARLY INLAND
AND AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AND
WET RUNWAYS.

THE STORMS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
TO BE AROUND AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD THE W
AGAIN. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS...WITH SOME
STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE S COAST
PRODUCING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

VFR ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES TUE OUTSIDE OF FOG/STRATUS...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...THIS TIME IT MAY
APPROACH THE COASTLINES.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/T-STORM LATE TODAY OR
OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE EVENING. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY..

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW TODAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 10-15 KT ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR 20-25 KT AGAIN NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW THE
5-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATER S OF RI/MA TO PERSIST SO WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME T-STORMS WHICH MAY REACH THE COASTLINE
BY THE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG AND
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME REDUCTION IN VSBYS.

TUESDAY...
A STALLED FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY OF THESE STORMS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE
WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER
AT DOVER AND THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE HEAVY RAIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD AND MAY ALTER THE TIMING
OF RIVERS OR EVEN ALLOW THEM TO RISE AGAIN AS WELL. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED.

RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 400AM.

IN MA... CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND REMAINS STEADY

THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI
HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER HAS FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE.

REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KBOX 170749
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
349 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER SHORTWAVE IS ALREADY OFFSHORE
THIS MORNING. ONLY REMNANTS ARE A FEW MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS
ALONG AND S OF THE MASS PIKE. EXPECT THAT THESE TOO WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE WITH TIME THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH SUNRISE. WITH H85 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND +13C
TODAY...THIS FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD MIX THESE VALUES DOWN EASILY.
EXPECTING HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 70S INTO THE MID 80S.
DWPTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...SO EXPECT SOMEWHAT
MUGGY CONDITIONS AS WELL.

THE OTHER ISSUE OF NOTE TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT
SLIDES S WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN KIND OF
BACK AND FORTH ON THIS POTENTIAL BUT RECENT RUNS ARE ALL BEGINNINGTO
CONVERGE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF UP TO 1000 J/KG SBCAPE BY THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD WITH SUNSHINE /WHICH IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY/. NAM IS A BIT MORE ROBUST HERE BUT IS KEYING ON HIGHER DWPTS
THAN MUCH OF THE MESOSCALE AND GFS/ECMWF MODELS...SO LEANED AWAY
FROM IT/S SOLUTION FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS BECAUSE
DWPTS CLOSER TO THE MID 60S ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1500+ J/KG
INSTEAD. LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST AT ABOUT 6-6.5C/KM ALTHOUGH GFS
HAS STEEPENED THESE SOMEWHAT.

WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AM NOTING UP TO 20-30 KT AND
40-50 KT OF SHEAR AT 0-3 AND 0-6 KM RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE...EVEN
THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS ONE MIGHT NORMALLY LOOK
FOR...THE SHEAR SUGGESTS STORMS COULD BECOME ORGANIZED INTO AT
LEAST ORGANIZED MULTI-CELLS STRUCTURES. COMBINE THIS WITH DECENT
D-CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR A WIND
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. HELD OFF ON HAIL THREAT /ALTHOUGH ITS
NON-ZERO/ DUE TO SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THEIR MAY BE A BIT OF A MID
LVL WARM LAYER LIMITING HAIL CAPE. PWAT VALUES OF 1.0 INCHES PLUS
COULD ALSO CREATE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN.

TAKING ALL OF THIS INTO ACCOUNT...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST SOME
ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. MASS FIELDS SAYS THIS FIELD RIGHT AROUND PEAK
HEATING. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER UPGRADING THIS WORDING AS NEW MESO-
SCALE GUIDANCE COMES IN AS THERE IS DEFINITE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONG- SEVERE STORMS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALLS IN VICINITY OF
CT/RI AND SE MA AS IT PARALLELS UPPER LVL FLOW. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AND THEN DIMINISH TO
-SHRA AS THE BL DECOUPLES DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. A FEW STORMS MAY
LINGER TO THE COAST LINES SO MAY NEED TO WATCH THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT EVEN AS STORMS WEAKEN OVERLAND. OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED -SHRA AROUND
GIVEN THE LIFT THE FRONT PROVIDES AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLUMN
MOISTURE. DWPTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THE THE
FRONT...SO EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
HAVE RAIN RAISING SFC MOISTURE.

TUESDAY...
TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DAY. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR LIFT...AND DWPTS WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CAPE VALUES TO ONCE AGAIN REBOUND TO
1000+ J/KG...THE QUESTION WILL BE AVAILABLE SUNSHINE. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME BKN CLOUDS IN THE REGION THROUGH
SUNRISE WHICH WOULD SLOW DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SUN
BREAK OUT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AS MUCH IF NOT
MORE INSTABILITY THAN MONDAY. SHEAR WILL BE MUCH THE SAME AS
WELL...40-50 KT FROM 0-6 KM. SPC STILL FOCUSES A SEE TEXT SO WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WHICH AT LEAST HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG-SEVERE.

TEMPS UNDER BKN-OVC SKIES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN MON...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ALTHOUGH UNDER SUNSHINE COULD REACH CLOSER TO 80+
ESPECIALLY S OF THE STALLED FRONT. HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH DWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
FRONT...BUT IN NH THE DWPTS WILL BE LOWER FURTHER BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
* MORE HUMID NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS

OVERVIEW...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH POLAR JET
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE N BUT BROAD TROF REMAINING ACROSS THE
NE...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. GFS AND
ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT DURING NEXT WEEKEND AS MIDWEST RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD EWD.  GFS BRINGS A PIECE OF THIS HEAT INTO SNE AS IT
IS DEPICTING MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS GT LAKES INTO NEW ENG...
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM TROF AND NW
FLOW ACROSS SNE WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT AND HEAT TO THE SW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT WE LEANED
TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION.  THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL INCREASE BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
CHC SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY S OF THE
MASS PIKE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST.  THE FRONT AND ANY
SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER NEAR
THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WED MORNING AS
CLEARING MOVES INTO NORTHERN ZONES. THIS CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS REST OF SNE DURING WEDNESDAY.  NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE 70S EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH NE FLOW AND SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH
PRES IN CONTROL.  TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH COOLING SEABREEZES
EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT.  WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
           LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/T-STORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY

VFR IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY FORM
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PARTICULARLY INLAND
AND AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AND
WET RUNWAYS.

THE STORMS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
TO BE AROUND AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD THE W
AGAIN. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS...WITH SOME
STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE S COAST
PRODUCING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

VFR ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES TUE OUTSIDE OF FOG/STRATUS...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...THIS TIME IT MAY
APPROACH THE COASTLINES.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/T-STORM LATE TODAY OR
OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE EVENING. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY..

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW TODAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 10-15 KT ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR 20-25 KT AGAIN NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW THE
5-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATER S OF RI/MA TO PERSIST SO WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME T-STORMS WHICH MAY REACH THE COASTLINE
BY THE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG AND
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME REDUCTION IN VSBYS.

TUESDAY...
A STALLED FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY OF THESE STORMS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE
WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER
AT DOVER AND THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE HEAVY RAIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD AND MAY ALTER THE TIMING
OF RIVERS OR EVEN ALLOW THEM TO RISE AGAIN AS WELL. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED.

RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 400AM.

IN MA... CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND REMAINS STEADY

IN ADDITION...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI WHERE THE LOWER PAWCATUCK
RIVER REMAINS IN FLOOD THIS MORNING...BUT WILL LIKELY BE BELOW
FLOODSTAGE BY MID MORNING.

REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...STAFF

000
FXUS61 KGYX 170726
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
326 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY AND TUESDAY...BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN
NORTHERN LOCATIONS BEFORE 10 AM.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST AND INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS... COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE... WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL CAPE VALUES OF 400 TO 800 ARE EXPECTED BY
EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING UNCAPPED BY AROUND
NOON. ANY AREAS WHICH CAN HOLD OFF ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY COULD POTENTIALLY TAP INTO BETTER INSTABILITY.
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
ARRIVE AROUND MID AFTERNOON AND WILL TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WIND PROFILES
TODAY SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SPEED SHEAR WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD GAIN BETTER ORGANIZATION INTO
LINES OR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER... THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT... DO NOT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY... THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS OR SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IF THUNDERSTORMS
GET ORGANIZED INTO LINES OR CLUSTERS OR IF CONVECTION IS
SUPPRESSED UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY LEADING TO GREATER INSTABILITY.
THE GREATEST THREAT AREA WOULD PROBABLY BE SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. MAV
FORECAST HIGH OF 86 IN CONCORD SEEMED A BIT TOO HIGH... BUT IF
SHOWERS AND STORMS DO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY THEN MID 80S
ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
EXPECT AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN BY THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND IT TO THE NORTH... BUT
THE HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG RIDGE AT 500 MB WILL HOLD IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...WEAKLY AMPLIFIED
TROUGHING WILL HOLD TO OUR NORTH...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD.
SO...AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT...LOOK FOR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...MAXES IN THE 70S...MINS IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH GENERALLY DRY AIR...FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING THE
RIDGING ALOFT TO SHIFT EAST. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT WORKS THROUGH. WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR WORKS IN FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE AS TO HOW
QUICKLY AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...BUT ULTIMATELY THIS COULD
PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION/CONVECTION SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START THE DAY... BUT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY FORM BY 16-20Z. CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDERSTORMS AT EACH TERMINAL IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN
MOST TAFS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE
EAST THIS EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
COULD SEE MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ON TUESDAY IN SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE.

LONG TERM...SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG...AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS ON
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE
WATERS TODAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUESDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH COULD INCREASE SWELL LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEMPA
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/KIMBLE
MARINE...CEMPA/KIMBLE

000
FXUS61 KBOX 170536
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
136 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA...MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH
HIGHER DWPTS...POSSIBILITY FOR FOG IS A BIT HIGHER EARLY THIS
MORNING HOWEVER AM NOTING WINDS ARE REMAINING ABOVE 5KT AT MANY
OBS SITES SO FOG WILL LIKELY BE RELEGATED TO THE TYPICALLY PRONE
AREAS. OTHERWISE... A BIT MORE MILD AND MUGGY MORNING BUT WITH
SUNSHINE EXPECTED AT DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...
ONE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER QUEBEC AND EXTENDS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST USA. A 105
KNOT UPPER JET MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND DRIVES A SECOND COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND/NY.

STABILITY PARAMETERS TELL A FAVORABLE STORY WITH LI AT
-1/-2...TOTALS 46-50...SBCAPE REACHING 200-500 J/KG. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS DEVELOPING INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND SPREADING SOUTH/EAST DURING THE EVENING. TEMPS AT
850 MB 12-14C AND GOOD MIXING DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON SHOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL BE FADING...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
UPPER JET NEARBY WITH FAVORABLE UPPER VENTING TO MAINTAIN SOME
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. WE HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS DURING TUESDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY
  MOVES ACROSS REGION.
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SIGNALING BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES ACROSS
QUEBEC AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...KEEPING A LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS NY STATE INTO PA WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW. GENERAL W-SW FLOW WILL CAUSE A COLD
FRONT TO ONLY SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION...BUT SHOULD MOVE OFF AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E BY ABOUT MID WEEK. LOOKS
LIKE A DRY W-NW FLOW ALONG WITH LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BRING
SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS. NOTING
INCREASING VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS THE HIGH BUILDS OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST AROUND NEXT WEEKEND AS THEIR HANDLING OF ANOTHER
APPROACHING FRONT. WENT ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE
FRONT TO THE NW OF THE REGION...WHICH MEANS MODERATING TEMPS WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY AT THIS POINT.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...
SECOND FRONT TENDING TO RUN PARALLEL TO THE W-SW UPPER FLOW IN
PLACE...SO WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION. KEPT CHANCE POPS
GOING. WILL ALSO SEE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SO KEPT MENTION OF
ISOLD TSTMS AS WELL. DOES LOOK LIKE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
SHIFT E LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT...SO FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AS HIGH
PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM NW-SE
TUE NIGHT...THOUGH MAY LINGER INTO WED ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OUT OF NY STATE.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGHS WILL START OFF
CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR WED...THEN WILL
REBOUND TO THE LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE
DURING FRIDAY...SO WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO S-SW WHICH WILL
HELP TO BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION.

MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ON
FRI AS WEAK TROUGH TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH BUT WEAKENS. MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH LL MOISTURE TO KICK OFF DIURNAL CONVECTION. ONLY MENTIONED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
WITH INCREASING SOLUTION SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS...NOT QUITE AS
CONFIDENCE WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WITH RETURN SW FLOW
IN PLACE AND INCREASING HUMIDITIES...COULD SEE WIDELY SCT DIURNAL
SHOWERS DEVELOP ON SATURDAY. FOR NEXT SUNDAY...MAY SEE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACH. AGAIN...KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
GOING BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
           LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/T-STORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY

VFR IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY FORM
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PARTICULARLY INLAND
AND AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AND
WET RUNWAYS.

THE STORMS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
TO BE AROUND AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD THE W
AGAIN. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS...WITH SOME
STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE S COAST
PRODUCING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

VFR ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES TUE OUTSIDE OF FOG/STRATUS...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...THIS TIME IT MAY
APPROACH THE COASTLINES.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/T-STORM LATE TODAY OR
OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE
AT TIMES IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...
REPORTED WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN 20 KNOTS OR LESS OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS. WE HAVE OPTED TO DROP SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES IN THOSE
AREAS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS TONIGHT. THE STEADY SOUTHWEST
WIND WILL BUILD SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS WITH
HEIGHTS REACHING 5-6 FEET. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY APPROACH
25 KNOTS BUT THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND EXPANDED IT INTO THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATES. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. WEATHER ON THE
WATERS WILL BE QUIET MUCH OF THE DAY WITH DIMINISHING SEAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP INLAND AND MAY BECOME A
FACTOR ON THE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS DURING THE NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUESDAY
MORNING AND STALL. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET.  WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF ANY TSTMS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. N-NE WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED
ON THE OUTER WATERS E AND S OF CAPE COD ALONG WITH MARGINAL 5 FOOT
SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS ALLOWING RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO
CREST AND RECEDE. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS
MONDAY WHERE RUNOFF COULD CHANGE THE TIMING FOR THE RECEDING
WATERS.

RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 800 PM. ALL EXCEPT THE CHARLES RIVER MAY BE ENDED SOMETIME
THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.

IN CT...
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND FALLING

IN MA...
CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND STEADY

IN RI...
PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND FALLING

IN ADDITION...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI WHERE THE LOWER PAWCATUCK
RIVER REMAINS IN FLOOD.

REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KGYX 170400
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1200 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH MONDAY WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...
HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS PRIMARILY TO POP GRIDS TO REFLECT THE FACT
THAT SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DRIFTING ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER
INTO VERMONT AND MAY MOVE INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHWEST MAINE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S... TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT AND HAVE RAISED
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

PREVIOUS UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDDED FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. LATEST
RADAR ANIMATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
AREAS BEGINNING TO EXIT NEAR THE PENOBSCOT VALLEY REGION AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF MAINE. WHILE SOME OF THIS IS DRYING UP WITH
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND IN SOME AREAS. HAVE
LOWERED POPS FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES...AND ADDED PATCHY
FOG FOR MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE HRRR FOR THE TIMING OF THE EXITING
PRECIPITATION FIELDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST FROM NY STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN EVAPORATING
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AREAS. AIR
OVER MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS SHOULD SATURATE...SO EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAIN IN THOSE AREAS THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND AS AIR IS VERY DRY.
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN AREAS THAT GET A SHOWER THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES IN
SOUTHERN AREAS COULD REACH THE MID 80S. ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A BIT
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRONT
MOVES VERY THROUGH REGION WITH SHOWER THREAT CONTINUING MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD IN STORE. SHOULD BE A WEAK BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING THAT COULD PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS TRYING TO DROP A WEAK BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT OUT OF CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY BUT
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER. WILL NOT GIVE IT TOO MUCH WEIGHT YET
BUT IT WILL REMAIN A FEATURE TO LOOK FOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN SHOWERS AND IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE

000
FXUS61 KGYX 170127
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
927 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH MONDAY WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDDED FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. LATEST
RADAR ANIMATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
AREAS BEGINNING TO EXIT NEAR THE PENOBSCOT VALLEY REGION AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF MAINE. WHILE SOME OF THIS IS DRYING UP WITH
EVAP COOLING...RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND IN SOME AREAS. HAVE
LOWERED POPS FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES...AND ADDED PATCHY
FOG FOR MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE HRRR FOR THE TIMING OF THE EXITING PCPN
FIELDS.

PREV DISC...
AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST FROM NY STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE INITIAL PRECIP HAS BEEN EVAPORATING BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AREAS. AIR OVER MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS SHOULD SATURATE...SO EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN IN
THOSE AREAS THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND AS AIR IS VERY DRY. PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN AREAS THAT GET A SHOWER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPS IN SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD REACH THE MID 80S. ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A BIT UNSTABLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRONT
MOVES VERY THROUGH REGION WITH SHOWER THREAT CONTINUING MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD IN STORE. SHOULD BE A WEAK BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING THAT COULD PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS TRYING TO DROP A WEAK BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT OUT OF CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY BUT
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER. WILL NOT GIVE IT TOO MUCH WEIGHT YET
BUT IT WILL REMAIN A FEATURE TO LOOK FOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN SHOWERS AND IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KBOX 170010
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
810 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
800 PM UPDATE...
MOST OF THE PRECIP AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS DISSIPATED
AND MOVED OFFSHORE. NOTING ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG S COAST OF RI/S MA AT 00Z...BUT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP NOTED
OVER NY STATE AND MOST OF PA.

BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE REGION
AND HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED PRECIP. MAY SEE A COUPLE OF POCKETS OF
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS THROUGH 03Z AS INSTABILITY
MOVES OFFSHORE. HAVE CONTINUED TO BRING IN PATCHY FOG AS DEWPTS
REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE
SOME LOW CLOUDS WORK INTO PORTIONS OF CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

HAVE ALSO UPDATED REMAINING GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

OVERNIGHT...
CLEARING IS ENTERING FAR WESTERN NY BUT WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
EXPECT THIS CLEARING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIMINISHED WIND MAY ALLOW FOG
PATCHES TO FORM OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM ARE 55-60...WHICH IS
A GOOD TARGET FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. WE USED A BLEND OF MOS
VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
ONE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER QUEBEC AND EXTENDS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST USA. A 105
KNOT UPPER JET MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND DRIVES A SECOND COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND/NY.

STABILITY PARAMETERS TELL A FAVORABLE STORY WITH LI AT
-1/-2...TOTALS 46-50...SBCAPE REACHING 200-500 J/KG. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS DEVELOPING INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND SPREADING SOUTH/EAST DURING THE EVENING. TEMPS AT
850 MB 12-14C AND GOOD MIXING DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON SHOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL BE FADING...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
UPPER JET NEARBY WITH FAVORABLE UPPER VENTING TO MAINTAIN SOME
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. WE HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS DURING TUESDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY
  MOVES ACROSS REGION.
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SIGNALING BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES ACROSS
QUEBEC AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...KEEPING A LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS NY STATE INTO PA WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW. GENERAL W-SW FLOW WILL CAUSE A COLD
FRONT TO ONLY SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION...BUT SHOULD MOVE OFF AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E BY ABOUT MID WEEK. LOOKS
LIKE A DRY W-NW FLOW ALONG WITH LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BRING
SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS. NOTING
INCREASING VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS THE HIGH BUILDS OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST AROUND NEXT WEEKEND AS THEIR HANDLING OF ANOTHER
APPROACHING FRONT. WENT ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE
FRONT TO THE NW OF THE REGION...WHICH MEANS MODERATING TEMPS WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY AT THIS POINT.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...
SECOND FRONT TENDING TO RUN PARALLEL TO THE W-SW UPPER FLOW IN
PLACE...SO WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION. KEPT CHANCE POPS
GOING. WILL ALSO SEE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SO KEPT MENTION OF
ISOLD TSTMS AS WELL. DOES LOOK LIKE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
SHIFT E LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT...SO FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AS HIGH
PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM NW-SE
TUE NIGHT...THOUGH MAY LINGER INTO WED ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OUT OF NY STATE.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGHS WILL START OFF
CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR WED...THEN WILL
REBOUND TO THE LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE
DURING FRIDAY...SO WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO S-SW WHICH WILL
HELP TO BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION.

MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ON
FRI AS WEAK TROUGH TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH BUT WEAKENS. MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH LL MOISTURE TO KICK OFF DIURNAL CONVECTION. ONLY MENTIONED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
WITH INCREASING SOLUTION SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS...NOT QUITE AS
CONFIDENCE WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WITH RETURN SW FLOW
IN PLACE AND INCREASING HUMIDITIES...COULD SEE WIDELY SCT DIURNAL
SHOWERS DEVELOP ON SATURDAY. FOR NEXT SUNDAY...MAY SEE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACH. AGAIN...KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
GOING BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
MOST OF LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY 02Z. COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND 06Z WITH CLEARING BEHIND.
THE CLEARING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST REGION. MAY ALSO SEE BRIEF IFR CIGS AS LOW CLOUDS
MOVE IN OFF THE OCEAN ACROSS OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...BUT
SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT APPROACHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT. THIS MAY TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN FOG MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE
AT TIMES IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...
REPORTED WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN 20 KNOTS OR LESS OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS. WE HAVE OPTED TO DROP SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES IN THOSE
AREAS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS TONIGHT. THE STEADY SOUTHWEST
WIND WILL BUILD SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS WITH
HEIGHTS REACHING 5-6 FEET. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY APPROACH
25 KNOTS BUT THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND EXPANDED IT INTO THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATES. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. WEATHER ON THE
WATERS WILL BE QUIET MUCH OF THE DAY WITH DIMINISHING SEAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP INLAND AND MAY BECOME A
FACTOR ON THE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS DURING THE NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUESDAY
MORNING AND STALL. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET.  WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF ANY TSTMS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. N-NE WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED
ON THE OUTER WATERS E AND S OF CAPE COD ALONG WITH MARGINAL 5 FOOT
SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS ALLOWING RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO
CREST AND RECEDE. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS
MONDAY WHERE RUNOFF COULD CHANGE THE TIMING FOR THE RECEDING
WATERS.

RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 800 PM. ALL EXCEPT THE CHARLES RIVER MAY BE ENDED SOMETIME
THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.

IN CT...
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND FALLING

IN MA...
CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND STEADY

IN RI...
PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND FALLING

IN ADDITION...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI WHERE THE LOWER PAWCATUCK
RIVER REMAINS IN FLOOD.

REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
HYDROLOGY...WTB

000
FXUS61 KGYX 162041
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
441 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH MONDAY WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDDED FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. LATEST
RADAR ANIMATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AREAS OF RAIN OVER NH SPREADING
EAST INTO MAINE. WHILE SOME OF THIS IS DRYING UP WITH EVAP
COOLING...RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND IN MANY AREAS. HAVE UPPED
POPS FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...ALBIET THE RAIN WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS MUCH OF THE PCPN EXITING ERN PORTIONS OF
MANIE BY ABOUT 01Z OR 02Z.

PREV DISC...
AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST FROM NY STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE INITIAL PRECIP HAS BEEN EVAPORATING BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AREAS. AIR OVER MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS SHOULD SATURATE...SO EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN IN
THOSE AREAS THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND AS AIR IS VERY DRY. PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN AREAS THAT GET A SHOWER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPS IN SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD REACH THE MID 80S. ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A BIT UNSTABLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRONT
MOVES VERY THROUGH REGION WITH SHOWER THREAT CONTINUING MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD IN STORE. SHOULD BE A WEAK BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING THAT COULD PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS TRYING TO DROP A WEAK BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT OUT OF CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY BUT
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER. WILL NOT GIVE IT TOO MUCH WEIGHT YET
BUT IT WILL REMAIN A FEATURE TO LOOK FOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN SHOWERS AND IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KBOX 162040
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
440 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH 1 MB/HOUR PRESSURE FALLS OVER
THE HUDSON VALLEY AT MID AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS LEADING
THIS FRONT...WITH MOST OF THE ACTION OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHERN VT/NH MOVING EAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST. SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN VT WILL CROSS CHESHIRE AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES BY 6 PM.
TRAILING SHOWERS MORE PROXIMATE TO THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
SOUTHERN NH BETWEEN 7 AND 10 PM.

FARTHER SOUTH...JUST SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS UNTIL EVENING.
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS CLOSE TO THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
REGION WEST-EAST 6-9 PM AND EXIT WEST-EAST 7-10 PM.

UPSTREAM RAINFALL FROM THE BROADER NORTHERN AREA HAS TOTALED 0.2
TO 0.5 INCHES. MEANWHILE RAINFALL SOUTH OF THE NY THRUWAY HAS BEEN
LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES.

OVERNIGHT...
CLEARING IS ENTERING FAR WESTERN NY BUT WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
EXPECT THIS CLEARING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIMINISHED WIND MAY ALLOW FOG
PATCHES TO FORM OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM ARE 55-60...WHICH IS
A GOOD TARGET FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. WE USED A BLEND OF MOS
VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
ONE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER QUEBEC AND EXTENDS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST USA. A 105
KNOT UPPER JET MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND DRIVES A SECOND COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND/NY.

STABILITY PARAMETERS TELL A FAVORABLE STORY WITH LI AT
-1/-2...TOTALS 46-50...SBCAPE REACHING 200-500 J/KG. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS DEVELOPING INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND SPREADING SOUTH/EAST DURING THE EVENING. TEMPS AT
850 MB 12-14C AND GOOD MIXING DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON SHOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL BE FADING...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
UPPER JET NEARBY WITH FAVORABLE UPPER VENTING TO MAINTAIN SOME
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. WE HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS DURING TUESDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY
  MOVES ACROSS REGION.
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SIGNALING BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES ACROSS
QUEBEC AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...KEEPING A LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS NY STATE INTO PA WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW. GENERAL W-SW FLOW WILL CAUSE A COLD
FRONT TO ONLY SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION...BUT SHOULD MOVE OFF AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E BY ABOUT MID WEEK. LOOKS
LIKE A DRY W-NW FLOW ALONG WITH LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BRING
SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS. NOTING
INCREASING VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS THE HIGH BUILDS OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST AROUND NEXT WEEKEND AS THEIR HANDLING OF ANOTHER
APPROACHING FRONT. WENT ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE
FRONT TO THE NW OF THE REGION...WHICH MEANS MODERATING TEMPS WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY AT THIS POINT.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...
SECOND FRONT TENDING TO RUN PARALLEL TO THE W-SW UPPER FLOW IN
PLACE...SO WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION. KEPT CHANCE POPS
GOING. WILL ALSO SEE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SO KEPT MENTION OF
ISOLD TSTMS AS WELL. DOES LOOK LIKE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
SHIFT E LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT...SO FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AS HIGH
PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM NW-SE
TUE NIGHT...THOUGH MAY LINGER INTO WED ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OUT OF NY STATE.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGHS WILL START OFF
CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR WED...THEN WILL
REBOUND TO THE LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE
DURING FRIDAY...SO WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO S-SW WHICH WILL
HELP TO BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION.

MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ON
FRI AS WEAK TROUGH TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH BUT WEAKENS. MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH LL MOISTURE TO KICK OFF DIURNAL CONVECTION. ONLY MENTIONED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
WITH INCREASING SOLUTION SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS...NOT QUITE AS
CONFIDENCE WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WITH RETURN SW FLOW
IN PLACE AND INCREASING HUMIDITIES...COULD SEE WIDELY SCT DIURNAL
SHOWERS DEVELOP ON SATURDAY. FOR NEXT SUNDAY...MAY SEE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACH. AGAIN...KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
GOING BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THROUGH 00Z...
AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NEW YORK IS MOSTLY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
QUEBEC AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF
THERE WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF LIGHT PRECIP. BEST CHANCE OF THIS
ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS WOULD BE LATE AFTN/EVENING. BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE AT MHT...LEAST CHANCE AT ACK.

TONIGHT...
LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AROUND 06Z WITH CLEARING BEHIND. THE CLEARING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST REGION.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT APPROACHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT. THIS MAY TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN FOG MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE
AT TIMES IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...
REPORTED WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN 20 KNOTS OR LESS OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS. WE HAVE OPTED TO DROP SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES IN THOSE
AREAS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS TONIGHT. THE STEADY SOUTHWEST
WIND WILL BUILD SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS WITH
HEIGHTS REACHING 5-6 FEET. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY APPROACH
25 KNOTS BUT THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND EXPANDED IT INTO THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATES. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. WEATHER ON THE
WATERS WILL BE QUIET MUCH OF THE DAY WITH DIMINISHING SEAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP INLAND AND MAY BECOME A
FACTOR ON THE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS DURING THE NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUESDAY
MORNING AND STALL. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET.  WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF ANY TSTMS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. N-NE WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED
ON THE OUTER WATERS E AND S OF CAPE COD ALONG WITH MARGINAL 5 FOOT
SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS ALLOWING RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO
CREST AND RECEDE. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS
MONDAY WHERE RUNOFF COULD CHANGE THE TIMING FOR THE RECEDING
WATERS.

RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 330 PM. ALL EXCEPT THE CHARLES RIVER MAY BE ENDED SOMETIME THIS
EVENING OR TONIGHT.

IN CT...
FARMINGTON RIVER AT SIMSBURY IS NEAR FLOOD STAGE AND FALLING
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND FALLING

IN MA...
CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND STEADY

IN RI...
PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND FALLING

IN ADDITION...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI WHERE THE LOWER PAWCATUCK
RIVER REMAINS IN FLOOD.

REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB/EVT
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
HYDROLOGY...WTB

000
FXUS61 KBOX 162000
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
400 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
LATE MONDAY AND STALL ALONG THE SOUTH COAST MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN A WEAK
FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH 1 MB/HOUR PRESSURE FALLS OVER
THE HUDSON VALLEY AT MID AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS LEADING
THIS FRONT...WITH MOST OF THE ACTION OVER THE ADIRONDAKS AND
NORTHERN VT/NH MOVING EAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST. SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN VT WILL CROSS CHESHIRE AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES BY 6 PM.
TRAILING SHOWERS MORE PROXIMATE TO THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
SOUTHERN NH BETWEEN 7 AND 10 PM.

FARTHER SOUTH...JUST SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS UNTIL EVENING.
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS CLOSE TO THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
REGION WEST-EAST 6-9 PM AND EXIT WEST-EAST 7-10 PM.

UPSTREAM RAINFALL FROM THE BROADER NORTHERN AREA HAS TOTALED 0.2
TO 0.5 INCHES. MEANWHILE RAINFALL SOUTH OF THE NY THRUWAY HAS BEEN
LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES.

OVERNIGHT...
CLEARING IS ENTERING FAR WESTERN NY BUT WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
EXPECT THIS CLEARING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIMINISHED WIND MAY ALLOW FOG
PATCHES TO FORM OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM ARE 55-60...WHICH IS
A GOOD TARGET FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. WE USED A BLEND OF MOS
VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY...
ONE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER QUEBEC AND EXTENDS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST USA. A 105
KNOT UPPER JET MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TDURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND DRIVES A SECOND COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND/NY.

STABILITY PARAMETERS TELL A FAVORABLE STORY WITH LI AT
-1/-2...TOTALS 46-50...SBCAPE REACHING 200-500 J/KG. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS DEVELOPING INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND SPREADING SOUTH/EAST DURING THE EVENING. TEMPS AT
850 MB 12-14C AND GOOD MIXING DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON SHOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL BE FADING...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
UPPER JET NEARBY WITH FAVORABLE UPPER VENTING TO MAINTAIN SOME
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. WE HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT AND TUE BUT NOT A WASHOUT
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  DECENT MID LEVEL TROF PASSES TO THE NORTH TUE
WITH THE ASSOCD COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NEW ENG. HOW QUICKLY THIS
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH SUBSEQUENT CLEARING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
AS COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH WHICH MAY SLOW
ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH. THINK THE GFS IS TOO QUICK IN PUSHING THE FRONT
S...AND WE LEANED TOWARD ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTION WHICH IS SLOWER AND
KEEPS UNSETTLED PATTERN TUE POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO TUE NIGHT ALONG
THE COAST.  THEREAFTER...DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN OCCURS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE POLAR JET LIFTS
TO THE NORTH AND RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS.  A PIECE OF THIS
MIDWEST HEAT WILL TRY TO SNEAK INTO SNE NEXT WEEKEND BUT WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN TO THE SW.

TUESDAY INTO TUE NIGHT... AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION WITH FRONT LIKELY STALLING ACROSS NEW ENG
TUE. EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS TUE WITH CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
WHICH MAY LINGER NEAR THE S COAST TUE EVENING AS THE FRONT TAKES
ITS TIME MOVING OFFSHORE. EVENTUALLY CLEARING WILL MOVE IN FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING DRY AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS. MODERATION EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE S WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.

SATURDAY...
MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE SW...BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN AT DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THROUGH 00Z...
AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NEW YORK IS MOSTLY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
QUEBEC AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF
THERE WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF LIGHT PRECIP. BEST CHANCE OF THIS
ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS WOULD BE LATE AFTN/EVENING. BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE AT MHT...LEAST CHANCE AT ACK.

TONIGHT...
LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AROUND 06Z WITH CLEARING BEHIND. THE CLEARING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST REGION.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT APPROACHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT. THIS MAY TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN FOG MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...
REPORTED WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN 20 KNOTS OR LESS OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS. WE HAVE OPTED TO DROP SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES IN THOSE
AREAS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS TONIGHT. THE STEADY SOUTHWEST
WIND WILL BUILD SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS WITH
HEIGHTS REACHING 5-6 FEET. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY APPROACH
25 KNOTS BUT THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND EXPANDED IT INTO THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATES. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. WEATHER ON THE
WATERS WILL BE QUIET MUCH OF THE DAY WITH DIMINISHING SEAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP INLAND AND MAY BECOME A
FACTOR ON THE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS DURING THE NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUESDAY
MORNING AND STALL. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET.  WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF ANY TSTMS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS AND SEAS MOSTLY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH N/NE WIND
GUSTS COULD APPROACH 25 KT LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS ALLOWING RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO
CREST AND RECEDE. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS
MONDAY WHERE RUNOFF COULD CHANGE THE TIMING FOR THE RECEDING
WATERS.

RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 330 PM. ALL EXCEPT THE CHARLES RIVER MAY BE ENDED SOMETIME THIS
EVENING OR TONIGHT.

IN CT...
FARMINGTON RIVER AT SIMSBURY IS NEAR FLOOD STAGE AND FALLING
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND FALLING

IN MA...
CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND STEADY

IN RI...
PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND FALLING

IN ADDITION...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI WHERE THE LOWER PAWCATUCK
RIVER REMAINS IN FLOOD.

REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/KJC
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KGYX 161906
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
306 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH MONDAY WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST FROM NY STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE INITIAL PRECIP HAS BEEN EVAPORATING BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AREAS. AIR OVER MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS SHOULD SATURATE...SO EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN IN
THOSE AREAS THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND AS AIR IS VERY DRY. PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN AREAS THAT GET A SHOWER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPS IN SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD REACH THE MID 80S. ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A BIT UNSTABLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRONT
MOVES VERY THROUGH REGION WITH SHOWER THREAT CONTINUING MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD IN STORE. SHOULD BE A WEAK BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING THAT COULD PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS TRYING TO DROP A WEAK BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT OUT OF CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY BUT
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER. WILL NOT GIVE IT TOO MUCH WEIGHT YET
BUT IT WILL REMAIN A FEATURE TO LOOK FOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN SHOWERS AND IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JENSENIUS
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...JENSENIUS
LONG TERM...POHL

000
FXUS61 KBOX 161812
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
212 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT THEN WEAKEN.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND STALL DURING TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. CONTINUE TO
EXPECT DIMINISHING SUN...BUT EVEN WHERE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN THERE
SHOULD BE BREAKS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON.

LOWER THICKER CLOUDS HAVE REACHED CENTRAL NY/EASTERN PA AND WILL
PROGRESS EAST. FORWARD PROGRESS WOULD BRING THEM TO THE CT VALLEY
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM/CENTRAL HILLS 3 TO 430 PM/COASTAL PLAIN 430 TO
6 PM.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FALLING FROM A
MID LEVEL DECK...ANY NON-TRACE AMOUNTS FROM THIS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT PCPN WITH THE THICKER CLOUDS TO THE WEST.
THESE WOULD MOVE IN DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AGAIN...NOT
EXPECTING

LATE MORNING TEMPS 65 WEST TO 75 EAST. TWIN CONCERNS THAT MAX
TEMP FORECAST BE COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO WARM IN THE WEST DUE TO
CLOUDS AND A COUPLE TOO COOL IN THE EAST DUE TO SUN. ALY MORNING
RAOB SHOWED 10.5C AT 850 MB AND 6.2C AT 800 MB...AND SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE AT STANDARD ATMOSPHERE. SO A FULLY MIXED MAX TEMP
WOULD BE AROUND 80 OR IN THE LOWER 80S. LATE MORNING TEMPS IN THE
MID 70S AND SUN IN THE EAST SHOULD FULLY REALIZE THIS VALUE. MAX
TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THESE TWO CONCERNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE WEAK LOW PRES WILL MOVE INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...DRAGGING A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT OVER THE
REGION DURING THE 00Z-06Z TIMEFRAME. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A MODEST 30 KT LLJ...AS WELL AS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES /6.5+C/KM
BY ABOUT 06Z/ THANKS TO SOME COOLING APPARENT AT ABOUT H5.
THEREFORE...STILL A THREAT FOR SOME /ELEVATED/ CONVECTION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM INLAND TO THE
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NOT A WASHOUT HERE BUT AN
OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOUR THANKS TO 1.0-1.5 INCH PWATS AND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. MAY NEED TO WATCH THIS ONLY BECAUSE
OF THE RECENT RAINS WHICH HAS AFFECTED THE REGION.

WITH THE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SAVE FOR SOME GROUND FOG AND POSSIBLE STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE S COAST THANKS TO RISING DWPTS AND RETURN SW
FLOW.

MONDAY...
TRICKY SITUATION REGARDING POTENTIAL THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE DAY. GUIDANCE ALL SHOWS ANOTHER FAIRLY
ROBUST SHORTWAVE WRAPPING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DRAGGING
WITH IT YET ANOTHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES NOW IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS
FOR LIFT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS. THE KEY WILL BE
THE INSTABILITY. SHOULD ENOUGH SUN BREAK OUT...MODELS SB CAPE
VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG...WHICH IS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED.
THIS WOULD OF COURSE BE PREDICATED ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS LEFT
OVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INITIALLY AS IT COULD EASILY LIMIT
THE INSTABILITY. AM NOTING 30-40 KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR HOWEVER...WHICH
SHOULD AN UPDRAFT FORM...WOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO
BE IN THE WEST...WHERE SKIES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING
DURING THE MORNING AS THE OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT SHIFTS TO THE W.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THREAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OF
FORECAST UPDATES AS NEW DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT AND TUE BUT NOT A WASHOUT
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  DECENT MID LEVEL TROF PASSES TO THE NORTH TUE
WITH THE ASSOCD COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NEW ENG. HOW QUICKLY THIS
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH SUBSEQUENT CLEARING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
AS COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH WHICH MAY SLOW
ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH. THINK THE GFS IS TOO QUICK IN PUSHING THE FRONT
S...AND WE LEANED TOWARD ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTION WHICH IS SLOWER AND
KEEPS UNSETTLED PATTERN TUE POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO TUE NIGHT ALONG
THE COAST.  THEREAFTER...DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN OCCURS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE POLAR JET LIFTS
TO THE NORTH AND RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS.  A PIECE OF THIS
MIDWEST HEAT WILL TRY TO SNEAK INTO SNE NEXT WEEKEND BUT WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN TO THE SW.

MON NIGHT...
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTION SPILLING INTO SNE MON
EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT SHEAR IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE
WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE/SUSTAIN ANY STORMS THAT MOVE INTO NEW
ENG.  NOT CERTAIN THERE WILL BE STORMS BUT ANY THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
OTHERWISE...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

TUESDAY INTO TUE NIGHT...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION WITH FRONT
LIKELY STALLING ACROSS NEW ENG TUE.  EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS TUE WITH
CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WHICH MAY LINGER NEAR THE S COAST TUE
EVENING AS THE FRONT TAKES ITS TIME MOVING OFFSHORE. EVENTUALLY
CLEARING WILL MOVE IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING DRY AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS. MODERATION EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE S WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.

SATURDAY...
MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE SW...BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN AT DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THROUGH 00Z...
AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NEW YORK IS MOSTLY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
QUEBEC AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF
THERE WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF LIGHT PRECIP. BEST CHANCE OF THIS
ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS WOULD BE LATE AFTN/EVENING. BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE AT MHT...LEAST CHANCE AT ACK.

TONIGHT...
LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AROUND 06Z WITH CLEARING BEHIND. THE CLEARING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST REGION.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT APPROACHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT. THIS MAY TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN FOG MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NEAR SHORT
WATERS SURROUNDING CAPE COD...THE ISLANDS AND NARRAGANSETT BAY
THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A BRIEF AFTERNOON SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GIVEN AN OTHERWISE GOOD BOATING DAY.

OVERNIGHT...A COLD FRONT COULD BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED VSBY AND WIND ISSUES.
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW TODAY...SEAS MAY APPROACH 5-6 FT ON
SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS SO HAVE AN OVERNIGHT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THIS THREAT AS WELL.

FINALLY...ON MONDAY...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM OVER LAND AND
GRADUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY OVER THE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS AND SEAS MOSTLY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH N/NE WIND
GUSTS COULD APPROACH 25 KT LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE CRESTED AND ARE GRADUALLY
RECEDING THANKS TO A DAY+ OF DRY WEATHER. FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION REGARDING ANY FLOOD WARNINGS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT SEE
THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT. THE LIST BELOW IS A GENERAL LIST OF
THOSE RIVERS THAT STILL REMAIN ABOVE MINOR FLOOD.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. RUNOFF FROM THIS PCPN COULD CHANGE
THE TIMING FOR THE RECEDING WATERS.

RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 230 PM...

IN CT...
FARMINGTON RIVER AT SIMSBURY ABOVE FS AND FALLING
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM ABOVE FS AND FALLING

IN MA...
CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST

IN RI...
PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON ABOVE FS AND FALLING

IN ADDITION...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI WHERE THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER REMAINS IN
FLOOD.

REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KGYX 161640
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1240 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO OUR NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 PM UPDATE... MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS. AREA OF STEADY RAIN HEADED TOWARD MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS HEADED TOWARD COAST.

10 AM UPDATE...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE BREAKS ACROSS ALL AREAS.
TEMPS ARE COOLEST WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BLOCKED THE WARMING SUN (LIKE
SOUTHERN NH) ...HOWEVER WITH SOME PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED NEXT
FEW HOURS...THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM. PRECIP STILL WELL
BACK TO OUR WEST SO HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY JUST A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES OVER SOMERSET COUNTY. DEW POINTS ARE ACTUALLY A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY BUT SHOULD REACH THE
50S BY THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK WAVE OVER
NY STATE PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THERE WITH ANOTHER MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IT IS THIS
FEATURE THAT WILL SPARK SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL NOT
BE VERY ORGANIZED BUT A 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG WITH A 25 KT
LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP INTENSIFY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS STAY BELOW A HALF
INCH THROUGH TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY
DUE TO SW WINDS AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. NORTH OF THE OCCLUSION
CENTER TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY SLOT CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FROM THE SW WHILE SKIES TO
THE NORTH AND EAST REMAIN CLOUDY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. LOW LEVEL SATURATION WILL REMAIN HIGH AND
CONTRIBUTE TO PATCHY DENSE FOG.

A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL DEVELOP MONDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
CROSSING SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND TRIGGERING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY MID
MORNING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL INCREASE
SURFACE BASED CAPE AND RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY THANKS TO
MORE INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY... BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. NAM MODEL STALLS
THE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY... LEADING TO
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. BUT MOST OTHER MODELS PUSH THE FRONT TO
THE EAST BY EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY MAINLY FOR COASTAL AREAS IN CASE THE FRONT DOES HANG BACK
A LITTLE BIT AS THE NAM ADVERTISES.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND QUIET WEATHER FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WHEN 40S WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA... AND SOME MID TO UPPER 30S ARE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
ONCE RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING FOG WILL DEVELOP WITH MVFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. AFTERWARD EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. NOCTURNAL FOG WILL BE
MOST LIKELY AT LEB AND HIE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA...HOWEVER
SEAS PICK UP AROUND THE MIDCOAST ON MONDAY AND WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS WITH NO
STRONG PRESSURE SYSTEMS PRESENT TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR SEAS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...

000
FXUS61 KBOX 161435
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1035 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT THEN WEAKEN.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND STALL DURING TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. CONTINUE TO
EXPECT DIMINISHING SUN...BUT EVEN WHERE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN THERE
SHOULD BE BREAKS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON.

LOWER THICKER CLOUDS HAVE REACHED CENTRAL NY/EASTERN PA AND WILL
PROGRESS EAST. FORWARD PROGRESS WOULD BRING THEM TO THE CT VALLEY
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM/CENTRAL HILLS 3 TO 430 PM/COASTAL PLAIN 430 TO
6 PM.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FALLING FROM A
MID LEVEL DECK...ANY NON-TRACE AMOUNTS FROM THIS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT PCPN WITH THE THICKER CLOUDS TO THE WEST.
THESE WOULD MOVE IN DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AGAIN...NOT
EXPECTING

LATE MORNING TEMPS 65 WEST TO 75 EAST. TWIN CONCERNS THAT MAX
TEMP FORECAST BE COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO WARM IN THE WEST DUE TO
CLOUDS AND A COUPLE TOO COOL IN THE EAST DUE TO SUN. ALY MORNING
RAOB SHOWED 10.5C AT 850 MB AND 6.2C AT 800 MB...AND SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE AT STANDARD ATMOSPHERE. SO A FULLY MIXED MAX TEMP
WOULD BE AROUND 80 OR IN THE LOWER 80S. LATE MORNING TEMPS IN THE
MID 70S AND SUN IN THE EAST SHOULD FULLY REALIZE THIS VALUE. MAX
TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THESE TWO CONCERNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE WEAK LOW PRES WILL MOVE INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...DRAGGING A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT OVER THE
REGION DURING THE 00Z-06Z TIMEFRAME. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A MODEST 30 KT LLJ...AS WELL AS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES /6.5+C/KM
BY ABOUT 06Z/ THANKS TO SOME COOLING APPARENT AT ABOUT H5.
THEREFORE...STILL A THREAT FOR SOME /ELEVATED/ CONVECTION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM INLAND TO THE
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NOT A WASHOUT HERE BUT AN
OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOUR THANKS TO 1.0-1.5 INCH PWATS AND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. MAY NEED TO WATCH THIS ONLY BECAUSE
OF THE RECENT RAINS WHICH HAS AFFECTED THE REGION.

WITH THE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SAVE FOR SOME GROUND FOG AND POSSIBLE STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE S COAST THANKS TO RISING DWPTS AND RETURN SW
FLOW.

MONDAY...
TRICKY SITUATION REGARDING POTENTIAL THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE DAY. GUIDANCE ALL SHOWS ANOTHER FAIRLY
ROBUST SHORTWAVE WRAPPING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DRAGGING
WITH IT YET ANOTHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES NOW IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS
FOR LIFT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS. THE KEY WILL BE
THE INSTABILITY. SHOULD ENOUGH SUN BREAK OUT...MODELS SB CAPE
VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG...WHICH IS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED.
THIS WOULD OF COURSE BE PREDICATED ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS LEFT
OVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INITIALLY AS IT COULD EASILY LIMIT
THE INSTABILITY. AM NOTING 30-40 KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR HOWEVER...WHICH
SHOULD AN UPDRAFT FORM...WOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO
BE IN THE WEST...WHERE SKIES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING
DURING THE MORNING AS THE OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT SHIFTS TO THE W.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THREAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OF
FORECAST UPDATES AS NEW DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT AND TUE BUT NOT A WASHOUT
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  DECENT MID LEVEL TROF PASSES TO THE NORTH TUE
WITH THE ASSOCD COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NEW ENG. HOW QUICKLY THIS
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH SUBSEQUENT CLEARING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
AS COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH WHICH MAY SLOW
ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH. THINK THE GFS IS TOO QUICK IN PUSHING THE FRONT
S...AND WE LEANED TOWARD ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTION WHICH IS SLOWER AND
KEEPS UNSETTLED PATTERN TUE POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO TUE NIGHT ALONG
THE COAST.  THEREAFTER...DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN OCCURS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE POLAR JET LIFTS
TO THE NORTH AND RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS.  A PIECE OF THIS
MIDWEST HEAT WILL TRY TO SNEAK INTO SNE NEXT WEEKEND BUT WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN TO THE SW.

MON NIGHT...
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTION SPILLING INTO SNE MON
EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT SHEAR IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE
WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE/SUSTAIN ANY STORMS THAT MOVE INTO NEW
ENG.  NOT CERTAIN THERE WILL BE STORMS BUT ANY THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
OTHERWISE...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

TUESDAY INTO TUE NIGHT...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION WITH FRONT
LIKELY STALLING ACROSS NEW ENG TUE.  EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS TUE WITH
CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WHICH MAY LINGER NEAR THE S COAST TUE
EVENING AS THE FRONT TAKES ITS TIME MOVING OFFSHORE. EVENTUALLY
CLEARING WILL MOVE IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING DRY AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS. MODERATION EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE S WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.

SATURDAY...
MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE SW...BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN AT DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY.

TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
VFR EXPECTED TO DOMINATE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM W TO
E IN -SHRA BEGINNING AFTER 19Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 04Z.
SOME THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AIRPORTS THAT RECEIVE
DRAIN.

MONDAY...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSHOWERS ESPECIALLY AT INTERIOR SRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF -SHRA THIS LATE IN THE DAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF -SHRA THIS LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG MON NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
OTHERWISE MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NEAR SHORT
WATERS SURROUNDING CAPE COD...THE ISLANDS AND NARRAGANSETT BAY
THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A BRIEF AFTERNOON SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GIVEN AN OTHERWISE GOOD BOATING DAY.

OVERNIGHT...A COLD FRONT COULD BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED VSBY AND WIND ISSUES.
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW TODAY...SEAS MAY APPROACH 5-6 FT ON
SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS SO HAVE AN OVERNIGHT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THIS THREAT AS WELL.

FINALLY...ON MONDAY...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM OVER LAND AND
GRADUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY OVER THE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS AND SEAS MOSTLY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH N/NE WIND
GUSTS COULD APPROACH 25 KT LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE CRESTED AND ARE GRADUALLY
RECEDING THANKS TO A DAY+ OF DRY WEATHER. FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION REGARDING ANY FLOOD WARNINGS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT SEE
THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT. THE LIST BELOW IS A GENERAL LIST OF
THOSE RIVERS THAT STILL REMAIN ABOVE MINOR FLOOD.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE LATE DAY/EVENING HOURS TODAY AND
LATE DAY MONDAY TIMEFRAMES FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. NOT EXPECTING
NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AS FELL LAST WEEK...BUT SOME
ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY NEED
TO BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER URBAN FLOODING.

RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 1030 AM...

IN CT...
FARMINGTON RIVER AT SIMSBURY ABOVE FS AND FALLING
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT HARTFORD ABOVE FS BUT NEAR AND FALLING
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM ABOVE FS AND FALLING

IN MA...
ASSABET RIVER AT MAYNARD AT FLOOD STAGE AND FALLING
CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST

IN RI...
PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON ABOVE FS AND FALLING

IN ADDITION...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI WHERE THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER REMAINS IN
FLOOD.

REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KGYX 161412
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1012 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO OUR NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE BREAKS ACROSS ALL AREAS.
TEMPS ARE COOLEST WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BLOCKED THE WARMING SUN (LIKE
SOUTHERN NH) ...HOWEVER WITH SOME PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED NEXT
FEW HOURS...THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM. PRECIP STILL WELL
BACK TO OUR WEST SO HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY JUST A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES OVER SOMERSET COUNTY. DEW POINTS ARE ACTUALLY A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY BUT SHOULD REACH THE
50S BY THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK WAVE OVER
NY STATE PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THERE WITH ANOTHER MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IT IS THIS
FEATURE THAT WILL SPARK SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL NOT
BE VERY ORGANIZED BUT A 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG WITH A 25 KT
LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP INTENSIFY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS STAY BELOW A HALF
INCH THROUGH TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY
DUE TO SW WINDS AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. NORTH OF THE OCCLUSION
CENTER TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY SLOT CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FROM THE SW WHILE SKIES TO
THE NORTH AND EAST REMAIN CLOUDY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. LOW LEVEL SATURATION WILL REMAIN HIGH AND
CONTRIBUTE TO PATCHY DENSE FOG.

A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL DEVELOP MONDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
CROSSING SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND TRIGGERING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY MID
MORNING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL INCREASE
SURFACE BASED CAPE AND RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY THANKS TO
MORE INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY... BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. NAM MODEL STALLS
THE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY... LEADING TO
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. BUT MOST OTHER MODELS PUSH THE FRONT TO
THE EAST BY EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY MAINLY FOR COASTAL AREAS IN CASE THE FRONT DOES HANG BACK
A LITTLE BIT AS THE NAM ADVERTISES.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND QUIET WEATHER FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WHEN 40S WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA... AND SOME MID TO UPPER 30S ARE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
ONCE RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING FOG WILL DEVELOP WITH MVFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. AFTERWARD EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. NOCTURNAL FOG WILL BE
MOST LIKELY AT LEB AND HIE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA...HOWEVER
SEAS PICK UP AROUND THE MIDCOAST ON MONDAY AND WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS WITH NO
STRONG PRESSURE SYSTEMS PRESENT TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR SEAS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...

000
FXUS61 KBOX 161102
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
702 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT THEN WEAKEN.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND STALL DURING TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT THICKER
CLOUDS STILL TO THE WEST SO EXPECT SUNSHINE THIS MORNING THEN
BECOMING MOCLDY FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT
FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE W...EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY TO SHIFT TO THE N...BUT WITH THE OCCLUSION PROCESS
UNDERWAY...GUIDANCE NOW AGREES THAT SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL LIKELY BE
UNABLE TO REALIZE THE WARM SECTOR. THEREFORE...INSTABILITY WAINS
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. BEST
INSTABILITY/LIFT AND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UPSTREAM FOR MOST
OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...EXPECT THAT AFTER
18Z...SOME -SHRA /POSSIBLY FROM WEAKENED CONVECTION/ TO MAKE ITS
WAY ACROSS IN THE W AND GRADUALLY EXPAND E AS THE FRONT WASHES
OUT. WILL INCLUDE SOME ISO THUNDER AS LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARD THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT /MORE ON THIS BELOW/.

GIVEN ALL OF THESE FACTORS...EXPECT A AT LEAST SOME SUN TO START
GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE BY LATE DAY. NOT A WASHOUT...BUT SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY
SEE DAMP GROUND BEFORE SUNSET. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SAT
ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE WEAK LOW PRES WILL MOVE INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...DRAGGING A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT OVER THE
REGION DURING THE 00Z-06Z TIMEFRAME. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A MODEST 30 KT LLJ...AS WELL AS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES /6.5+C/KM
BY ABOUT 06Z/ THANKS TO SOME COOLING APPARENT AT ABOUT H5.
THEREFORE...STILL A THREAT FOR SOME /ELEVATED/ CONVECTION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM INLAND TO THE
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NOT A WASHOUT HERE BUT AN
OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOUR THANKS TO 1.0-1.5 INCH PWATS AND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. MAY NEED TO WATCH THIS ONLY BECAUSE
OF THE RECENT RAINS WHICH HAS AFFECTED THE REGION.

WITH THE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SAVE FOR SOME GROUND FOG AND POSSIBLE STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE S COAST THANKS TO RISING DWPTS AND RETURN SW
FLOW.

MONDAY...
TRICKY SITUATION REGARDING POTENTIAL THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE DAY. GUIDANCE ALL SHOWS ANOTHER FAIRLY
ROBUST SHORTWAVE WRAPPING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DRAGGING
WITH IT YET ANOTHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES NOW IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS
FOR LIFT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS. THE KEY WILL BE
THE INSTABILITY. SHOULD ENOUGH SUN BREAK OUT...MODELS SB CAPE
VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG...WHICH IS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED.
THIS WOULD OF COURSE BE PREDICATED ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS LEFT
OVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INITIALLY AS IT COULD EASILY LIMIT
THE INSTABILITY. AM NOTING 30-40 KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR HOWEVER...WHICH
SHOULD AN UPDRAFT FORM...WOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO
BE IN THE WEST...WHERE SKIES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING
DURING THE MORNING AS THE OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT SHIFTS TO THE W.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THREAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OF
FORECAST UPDATES AS NEW DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT AND TUE BUT NOT A WASHOUT
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  DECENT MID LEVEL TROF PASSES TO THE NORTH TUE
WITH THE ASSOCD COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NEW ENG. HOW QUICKLY THIS
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH SUBSEQUENT CLEARING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
AS COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH WHICH MAY SLOW
ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH. THINK THE GFS IS TOO QUICK IN PUSHING THE FRONT
S...AND WE LEANED TOWARD ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTION WHICH IS SLOWER AND
KEEPS UNSETTLED PATTERN TUE POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO TUE NIGHT ALONG
THE COAST.  THEREAFTER...DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN OCCURS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE POLAR JET LIFTS
TO THE NORTH AND RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS.  A PIECE OF THIS
MIDWEST HEAT WILL TRY TO SNEAK INTO SNE NEXT WEEKEND BUT WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN TO THE SW.

MON NIGHT...
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTION SPILLING INTO SNE MON
EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT SHEAR IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE
WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE/SUSTAIN ANY STORMS THAT MOVE INTO NEW
ENG.  NOT CERTAIN THERE WILL BE STORMS BUT ANY THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
OTHERWISE...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

TUESDAY INTO TUE NIGHT...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION WITH FRONT
LIKELY STALLING ACROSS NEW ENG TUE.  EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS TUE WITH
CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WHICH MAY LINGER NEAR THE S COAST TUE
EVENING AS THE FRONT TAKES ITS TIME MOVING OFFSHORE. EVENTUALLY
CLEARING WILL MOVE IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING DRY AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS. MODERATION EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE S WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.

SATURDAY...
MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE SW...BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN AT DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY.

TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
VFR EXPECTED TO DOMINATE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM W TO
E IN -SHRA BEGINNING AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 04Z.
SOME THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AIRPORTS THAT RECEIVE
DRAIN.

MONDAY...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSHOWERS ESPECIALLY AT INTERIOR SRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF -SHRA THIS LATE IN THE DAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF -SHRA THIS LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG MON NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
OTHERWISE MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NEAR SHORT
WATERS SURROUNDING CAPE COD...THE ISLANDS AND NARRAGANSETT BAY
THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A BRIEF AFTERNOON SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GIVEN AN OTHERWISE GOOD BOATING DAY.

OVERNIGHT...A COLD FRONT COULD BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED VSBY AND WIND ISSUES.
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW TODAY...SEAS MAY APPROACH 5-6 FT ON
SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS SO HAVE AN OVERNIGHT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THIS THREAT AS WELL.

FINALLY...ON MONDAY...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM OVER LAND AND
GRADUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY OVER THE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS AND SEAS MOSTLY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH N/NE WIND
GUSTS COULD APPROACH 25 KT LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE CRESTED AND ARE GRADUALLY
RECEDING THANKS TO A DAY+ OF DRY WEATHER. FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION REGARDING ANY FLOOD WARNINGS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT SEE
THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT. THE LIST BELOW IS A GENERAL LIST OF
THOSE RIVERS THAT STILL REMAIN ABOVE MINOR FLOOD.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE LATE DAY/EVENING HOURS TODAY AND
LATE DAY MONDAY TIMEFRAMES FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. NOT EXPECTING
NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AS FELL LAST WEEK...BUT SOME
ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY NEED
TO BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER URBAN FLOODING.

RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 430 AM...

IN CT...
FARMINGTON RIVER AT SIMSBURY
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT HARTFORD
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM

IN MA...
ASSABET RIVER AT MAYNARD - EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE MID MORN
CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER

IN RI...
PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON

IN ADDITION...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI WHERE THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER REMAINS IN
FLOOD.

REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KBOX 160757
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
351 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT THEN STALL IN
THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL DURING TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN A WEAK FRONT
MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CI AND MID LVL ALTO-CU IS GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER FROM THE W THIS
MORNING IN ADVANCE OF OCCLUDING LOW PRES. THIS LOW IS THE RESULT
OF ENERGY LEFT OVER FROM A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WHICH WAS AFFECTING
THE OH VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IT WILL BE THIS SYSTEM
WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIMEFRAME.

WITH CLOUDS ALREADY BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER FROM THE W...EXPECT
ONLY A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY TO GIVE WAY TO BKN-OVC CIGS BY ABOUT MID
DAY. AS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE W...EXPECT THE BULK OF
THE ENERGY TO SHIFT TO THE N...BUT WITH THE OCCLUSION PROCESS
UNDERWAY...GUIDANCE NOW AGREES THAT SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL LIKELY BE
UNABLE TO REALIZE THE WARM SECTOR. THEREFORE...INSTABILITY WAINS
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. BEST
INSTABILITY/LIFT AND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UPSTREAM FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...EXPECT THAT
AFTER 18Z...SOME -SHRA /POSSIBLY FROM WEAKENED CONVECTION/ TO MAKE
ITS WAY ACROSS IN THE W AND GRADUALLY EXPAND E AS THE FRONT WASHES
OUT. WILL INCLUDE SOME ISO THUNDER AS LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARD THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT /MORE ON THIS BELOW/.

GIVEN ALL OF THESE FACTORS...EXPECT A AT LEAST SOME SUN TO START
GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE BY LATE DAY. NOT A WASHOUT...BUT SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY
SEE DAMP GROUND BEFORE SUNSET. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SAT
ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE WEAK LOW PRES WILL MOVE INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...DRAGGING A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT OVER THE
REGION DURING THE 00Z-06Z TIMEFRAME. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A MODEST 30 KT LLJ...AS WELL AS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES /6.5+C/KM
BY ABOUT 06Z/ THANKS TO SOME COOLING APPARENT AT ABOUT H5.
THEREFORE...STILL A THREAT FOR SOME /ELEVATED/ CONVECTION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM INLAND TO THE
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NOT A WASHOUT HERE BUT AN
OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOUR THANKS TO 1.0-1.5 INCH PWATS AND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. MAY NEED TO WATCH THIS ONLY BECAUSE
OF THE RECENT RAINS WHICH HAS AFFECTED THE REGION.

WITH THE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SAVE FOR SOME GROUND FOG AND POSSIBLE STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE S COAST THANKS TO RISING DWPTS AND RETURN SW
FLOW.

MONDAY...
TRICKY SITUATION REGARDING POTENTIAL THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE DAY. GUIDANCE ALL SHOWS ANOTHER FAIRLY
ROBUST SHORTWAVE WRAPPING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DRAGGING
WITH IT YET ANOTHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES NOW IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS
FOR LIFT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS. THE KEY WILL BE
THE INSTABILITY. SHOULD ENOUGH SUN BREAK OUT...MODELS SB CAPE
VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG...WHICH IS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED.
THIS WOULD OF COURSE BE PREDICATED ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS LEFT
OVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INITIALLY AS IT COULD EASILY LIMIT
THE INSTABILITY. AM NOTING 30-40 KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR HOWEVER...WHICH
SHOULD AN UPDRAFT FORM...WOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO
BE IN THE WEST...WHERE SKIES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING
DURING THE MORNING AS THE OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT SHIFTS TO THE W.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THREAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OF
FORECAST UPDATES AS NEW DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT AND TUE BUT NOT A WASHOUT
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  DECENT MID LEVEL TROF PASSES TO THE NORTH TUE
WITH THE ASSOCD COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NEW ENG. HOW QUICKLY THIS
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH SUBSEQUENT CLEARING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
AS COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH WHICH MAY SLOW
ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH. THINK THE GFS IS TOO QUICK IN PUSHING THE FRONT
S...AND WE LEANED TOWARD ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTION WHICH IS SLOWER AND
KEEPS UNSETTLED PATTERN TUE POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO TUE NIGHT ALONG
THE COAST.  THEREAFTER...DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN OCCURS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE POLAR JET LIFTS
TO THE NORTH AND RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS.  A PIECE OF THIS
MIDWEST HEAT WILL TRY TO SNEAK INTO SNE NEXT WEEKEND BUT WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN TO THE SW.

MON NIGHT...
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTION SPILLING INTO SNE MON
EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT SHEAR IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE
WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE/SUSTAIN ANY STORMS THAT MOVE INTO NEW
ENG.  NOT CERTAIN THERE WILL BE STORMS BUT ANY THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
OTHERWISE...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

TUESDAY INTO TUE NIGHT...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION WITH FRONT
LIKELY STALLING ACROSS NEW ENG TUE.  EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS TUE WITH
CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WHICH MAY LINGER NEAR THE S COAST TUE
EVENING AS THE FRONT TAKES ITS TIME MOVING OFFSHORE. EVENTUALLY
CLEARING WILL MOVE IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING DRY AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS. MODERATION EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE S WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.

SATURDAY...
MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE SW...BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN AT DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY.

TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
VFR EXPECTED TO DOMINATE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM W TO
E IN -SHRA BEGINNING AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 04Z.
SOME THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AIRPORTS THAT RECEIVE
DRAIN.

MONDAY...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSHOWERS ESPECIALLY AT INTERIOR SRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF -SHRA THIS LATE IN THE DAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF -SHRA THIS LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG MON NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
OTHERWISE MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NEAR SHORT
WATERS SURROUNDING CAPE COD...THE ISLANDS AND NARRAGANSETT BAY
THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A BRIEF AFTERNOON SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GIVEN AN OTHERWISE GOOD BOATING DAY.

OVERNIGHT...A COLD FRONT COULD BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED VSBY AND WIND ISSUES.
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW TODAY...SEAS MAY APPROACH 5-6 FT ON
SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS SO HAVE AN OVERNIGHT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THIS THREAT AS WELL.

FINALLY...ON MONDAY...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM OVER LAND AND
GRADUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY OVER THE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS AND SEAS MOSTLY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH N/NE WIND
GUSTS COULD APPROACH 25 KT LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE CRESTED AND ARE GRADUALLY
RECEDING THANKS TO A DAY+ OF DRY WEATHER. FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION REGARDING ANY FLOOD WARNINGS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT SEE
THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT. THE LIST BELOW IS A GENERAL LIST OF
THOSE RIVERS THAT STILL REMAIN ABOVE MINOR FLOOD.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE LATE DAY/EVENING HOURS TODAY AND
LATE DAY MONDAY TIMEFRAMES FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. NOT EXPECTING
NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AS FELL LAST WEEK...BUT SOME
ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY NEED
TO BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER URBAN FLOODING.

RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 430 AM...

IN CT...
FARMINGTON RIVER AT SIMSBURY
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT HARTFORD
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM

IN MA...
ASSABET RIVER AT MAYNARD - EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE MID MORN
CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER

IN RI...
PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON

IN ADDITION...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI WHERE THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER REMAINS IN
FLOOD.

REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...STAFF

000
FXUS61 KBOX 160751
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
351 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT THEN STALL IN
THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING
TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL
DURING TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CI AND MID LVL ALTO-CU IS GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER FROM THE W THIS
MORNING IN ADVANCE OF OCCLUDING LOW PRES. THIS LOW IS THE RESULT
OF ENERGY LEFT OVER FROM A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WHICH WAS AFFECTING
THE OH VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IT WILL BE THIS SYSTEM
WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIMEFRAME.

WITH CLOUDS ALREADY BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER FROM THE W...EXPECT
ONLY A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY TO GIVE WAY TO BKN-OVC CIGS BY ABOUT MID
DAY. AS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE W...EXPECT THE BULK OF
THE ENERGY TO SHIFT TO THE N...BUT WITH THE OCCLUSION PROCESS
UNDERWAY...GUIDANCE NOW AGREES THAT SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL LIKELY BE
UNABLE TO REALIZE THE WARM SECTOR. THEREFORE...INSTABILITY WAINS
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. BEST
INSTABILITY/LIFT AND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UPSTREAM FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...EXPECT THAT
AFTER 18Z...SOME -SHRA /POSSIBLY FROM WEAKENED CONVECTION/ TO MAKE
ITS WAY ACROSS IN THE W AND GRADUALLY EXPAND E AS THE FRONT WASHES
OUT. WILL INCLUDE SOME ISO THUNDER AS LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARD THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT /MORE ON THIS BELOW/.

GIVEN ALL OF THESE FACTORS...EXPECT A AT LEAST SOME SUN TO START
GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE BY LATE DAY. NOT A WASHOUT...BUT SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY
SEE DAMP GROUND BEFORE SUNSET. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SAT
ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE WEAK LOW PRES WILL MOVE INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...DRAGGING A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT OVER THE
REGION DURING THE 00Z-06Z TIMEFRAME. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A MODEST 30 KT LLJ...AS WELL AS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES /6.5+C/KM
BY ABOUT 06Z/ THANKS TO SOME COOLING APPARENT AT ABOUT H5.
THEREFORE...STILL A THREAT FOR SOME /ELEVATED/ CONVECTION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM INLAND TO THE
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NOT A WASHOUT HERE BUT AN
OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOUR THANKS TO 1.0-1.5 INCH PWATS AND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. MAY NEED TO WATCH THIS ONLY BECAUSE
OF THE RECENT RAINS WHICH HAS AFFECTED THE REGION.

WITH THE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SAVE FOR SOME GROUND FOG AND POSSIBLE STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE S COAST THANKS TO RISING DWPTS AND RETURN SW
FLOW.

MONDAY...
TRICKY SITUATION REGARDING POTENTIAL THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE DAY. GUIDANCE ALL SHOWS ANOTHER FAIRLY
ROBUST SHORTWAVE WRAPPING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DRAGGING
WITH IT YET ANOTHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES NOW IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS
FOR LIFT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS. THE KEY WILL BE
THE INSTABILITY. SHOULD ENOUGH SUN BREAK OUT...MODELS SB CAPE
VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG...WHICH IS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED.
THIS WOULD OF COURSE BE PREDICATED ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS LEFT
OVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INITIALLY AS IT COULD EASILY LIMIT
THE INSTABILITY. AM NOTING 30-40 KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR HOWEVER...WHICH
SHOULD AN UPDRAFT FORM...WOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO
BE IN THE WEST...WHERE SKIES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING
DURING THE MORNING AS THE OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT SHIFTS TO THE W.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THREAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OF
FORECAST UPDATES AS NEW DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT AND TUE BUT NOT A WASHOUT
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  DECENT MID LEVEL TROF PASSES TO THE NORTH TUE
WITH THE ASSOCD COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NEW ENG. HOW QUICKLY THIS
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH SUBSEQUENT CLEARING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
AS COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH WHICH MAY SLOW
ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH. THINK THE GFS IS TOO QUICK IN PUSHING THE FRONT
S...AND WE LEANED TOWARD ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTION WHICH IS SLOWER AND
KEEPS UNSETTLED PATTERN TUE POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO TUE NIGHT ALONG
THE COAST.  THEREAFTER...DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN OCCURS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE POLAR JET LIFTS
TO THE NORTH AND RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS.  A PIECE OF THIS
MIDWEST HEAT WILL TRY TO SNEAK INTO SNE NEXT WEEKEND BUT WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN TO THE SW.

MON NIGHT...
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTION SPILLING INTO SNE MON
EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT SHEAR IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE
WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE/SUSTAIN ANY STORMS THAT MOVE INTO NEW
ENG.  NOT CERTAIN THERE WILL BE STORMS BUT ANY THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
OTHERWISE...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

TUESDAY INTO TUE NIGHT...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION WITH FRONT
LIKELY STALLING ACROSS NEW ENG TUE.  EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS TUE WITH
CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WHICH MAY LINGER NEAR THE S COAST TUE
EVENING AS THE FRONT TAKES ITS TIME MOVING OFFSHORE. EVENTUALLY
CLEARING WILL MOVE IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING DRY AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS. MODERATION EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE S WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.

SATURDAY...
MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE SW...BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN AT DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY.

TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
VFR EXPECTED TO DOMINATE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM W TO
E IN -SHRA BEGINNING AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 04Z.
SOME THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AIRPORTS THAT RECEIVE
DRAIN.

MONDAY...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSHOWERS ESPECIALLY AT INTERIOR SRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF -SHRA THIS LATE IN THE DAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF -SHRA THIS LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG MON NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
OTHERWISE MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NEAR SHORT
WATERS SURROUNDING CAPE COD...THE ISLANDS AND NARRAGANSETT BAY
THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A BRIEF AFTERNOON SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GIVEN AN OTHERWISE GOOD BOATING DAY.

OVERNIGHT...A COLD FRONT COULD BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED VSBY AND WIND ISSUES.
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW TODAY...SEAS MAY APPROACH 5-6 FT ON
SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS SO HAVE AN OVERNIGHT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THIS THREAT AS WELL.

FINALLY...ON MONDAY...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM OVER LAND AND
GRADUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY OVER THE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS AND SEAS MOSTLY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH N/NE WIND
GUSTS COULD APPROACH 25 KT LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE CRESTED AND ARE GRADUALLY
RECEDING THANKS TO A DAY+ OF DRY WEATHER. FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION REGARDING ANY FLOOD WARNINGS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT SEE
THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT. THE LIST BELOW IS A GENERAL LIST OF
THOSE RIVERS THAT STILL REMAIN ABOVE MINOR FLOOD.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE LATE DAY/EVENING HOURS TODAY AND
LATE DAY MONDAY TIMEFRAMES FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. NOT EXPECTING
NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AS FELL LAST WEEK...BUT SOME
ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY NEED
TO BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER URBAN FLOODING.

RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 430 AM...

IN CT...
FARMINGTON RIVER AT SIMSBURY
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT HARTFORD
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM

IN MA...
ASSABET RIVER AT MAYNARD - EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE MID MORN
CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER

IN RI...
PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON

IN ADDITION...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI WHERE THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER REMAINS IN
FLOOD.

REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...STAFF

000
FXUS61 KGYX 160652
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
252 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO OUR NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CURRENTLY JUST A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES OVER SOMERSET COUNTY. DEW POINTS ARE ACTUALLY A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY BUT SHOULD REACH THE
50S BY THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK WAVE OVER
NY STATE PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THERE WITH ANOTHER MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IT IS THIS
FEATURE THAT WILL SPARK SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL NOT
BE VERY ORGANIZED BUT A 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG WITH A 25 KT
LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP INTENSIFY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS STAY BELOW A HALF
INCH THROUGH TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY
DUE TO SW WINDS AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. NORTH OF THE OCCLUSION
CENTER TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
DRY SLOT CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FROM THE SW WHILE SKIES TO
THE NORTH AND EAST REMAIN CLOUDY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. LOW LEVEL SATURATION WILL REMAIN HIGH AND
CONTRIBUTE TO PATCHY DENSE FOG.

A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL DEVELOP MONDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
CROSSING SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND TRIGGERING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY MID
MORNING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL INCREASE
SURFACE BASED CAPE AND RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY THANKS TO
MORE INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY... BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. NAM MODEL STALLS
THE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY... LEADING TO
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. BUT MOST OTHER MODELS PUSH THE FRONT TO
THE EAST BY EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY MAINLY FOR COASTAL AREAS IN CASE THE FRONT DOES HANG BACK
A LITTLE BIT AS THE NAM ADVERTISES.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND QUIET WEATHER FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WHEN 40S WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA... AND SOME MID TO UPPER 30S ARE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
ONCE RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING FOG WILL DEVELOP WITH MVFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. AFTERWARD EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. NOCTURNAL FOG WILL BE
MOST LIKELY AT LEB AND HIE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA...HOWEVER
SEAS PICK UP AROUND THE MIDCOAST ON MONDAY AND WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS WITH NO
STRONG PRESSURE SYSTEMS PRESENT TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR SEAS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

HANES/KIMBLE