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000
FXUS61 KBOX 311105
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
705 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AHEAD A COLD FRONT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY AND MUCH
COLDER SUNDAY. STILL COOL WITH A CHANCE OF A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER
ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
7 AM UPDATE...

MADE MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND SPED UP THE ONSET OF INCREASING CLOUDS. OTHERWISE
CURRENT FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK. A FEW LOW AND MID CLOUDS
CONTINUED ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WAS PASSING THROUGH. DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COLD
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO FALLING H85
TEMPS...PREVENTING DAYTIME HIGHS FROM REACHING SEASONAL NORMALS.
MAINLY THE MID-UPPER 40S ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM
THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WITH CP ORIGINS WILL BE RIDING STALLED
BAROCLINIC ZONE S OF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND WATERS DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT ODDS IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS HOW FAR N
THE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL REACH.
YESTERDAY/S RUNS WERE OFFSHORE. TONIGHT...A SHIFT BACK TO THE
N...EVEN IN AVAILABLE MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE. NOTE A MODEST LOW-MID
LVL F-GEN AXIS WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT PROFILES AS A CHANNEL
OF NEGATIVE OMEGA BETWEEN H8 AND H6. DRY AIR WILL BE ENTRAINING
INTO THE LOW-LVLS FROM THE N THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD.

GIVEN THESE FACTORS...LOOKS LIKE A LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM SW THEN DUE E THROUGH THE EVENING-
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE DRY AIR WINS ANYWHERE
S OF A LINE DRAWN ACROSS THE CT/RI BORDER WITH MA AND SE MA. THE
CLOSER TO THE COAST THAT ONE GETS...THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
STEADY PRECIP...SO IT/S LIKELY SOME AREAS TOWARD THE EDGE OF THE
SHIELD RECEIVE SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AT BEST.

REGARDING P-TYPE...LOW-LVL TEMP PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A RAINY
START IN CT THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW AS THE PRECIP SHIELD SHIFTS E. THERE IS SOME MODERATE
LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITE ZONE ALOFT...SO IT/S POSSIBLE THE CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW COULD OCCUR FASTER IN AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIP THANKS
TO DYNAMIC COOLING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE ENDING. ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT TO NIL...AND MAINLY ON GRASSY
SFCS.

WEDNESDAY...
COLD ADVECTION AND HIGH PRES FOLLOWS THE DEVELOPING CLIPPER
OFFSHORE. SKIES CLEAR...BUT WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING BACK TO -8C TO
-10C SUSPECT ANOTHER DAY WHERE HIGH TEMPS REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. MAINLY LOW-MID 40S EXPECTED...BREEZY WITH WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR NORMAL THU AND ABOVE NORMAL FRI
* STORM SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDING
CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS IN THE 20S.

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...IN THE LOWER 50S
EXCEPT COOLER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...REACHING 50 KNOTS AT 925 MB. AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO 20-25 MPH TOWARD EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND STALLS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...WITH THE GFS FASTEST
AND ECMWF SLOWEST. NEVERTHELESS...IT WILL BE A CLOUDY PERIOD WITH
A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS TO BELOW ZERO
THU NIGHT BUT OTHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION...
SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY ELEVATED THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 40S THU NIGHT...AND DESPITE
CLOUDINESS..SHOULD RISE TO ACTUAL SPRINGLIKE READINGS...IN THE
LOWER 60S FRI (UPPER 40S TO MID 50S CAPE AND ISLANDS) AS 850 MB
TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +10C. GFS MEX GUIDANCE ACTUALLY GIVES 66 FOR
BDL FRI BUT WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...HAVE HELD
CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTENSIFY ALONG
THE STALLED FRONT AS IT REACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF ABOUT 0.5 INCHES...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF 1 INCH OF RAIN. THE GFS
STRENGTHENS THE LOW TO 995 MB AND HAS IT MOVING INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE WITH ENOUGH PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND TO CAUSE A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF MA. THE ECMWF HAS
TRENDED COLDER...BUT NOT THAT COLD. YESTERDAY IT HAD AN INTENSE
STORM OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AND THIS MORNING/S RUN HAS IT OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE...CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. HOWEVER...
ANY LEFTOVER SNOW WOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THAT IS HOW WE CURRENTLY PLAYED THIS.  THE
PRECIPITATION CLEARS OUT BY ABOUT NOON ON SATURDAY. HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY...MAINLY SUNNY AND DRY BUT MUCH COLDER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S...BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
PASSING FLURRY IN THE MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES
THROUGH.

MONDAY...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN...OR
POSSIBLY MIXED PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN MA...BY LATE MONDAY.
THE ECMWF IMPLIES THAT THIS COULD BE A LONG DURATION EVENT INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BECAUSE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM CANADA. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE
ORIENTATION OF THAT HIGH. ANYWAY...THAT IS A WHOLE WEEK AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME W WINDS GUSTING TO 20+ KT AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY E MA.

THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ESPECIALLY S OF AN
HFD-IJD-PYM LINE. VFR TO THE N. CONDITIONS IMPROVE DURING EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ANY SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT...AND MAINLY ON GRASS
RATHER THAN RUNWAYS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF...AT ISSUE IS THE CHANCE FOR
A WINDOW OF MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR BECOMING
MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 10-20 KT
INCREASING TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 55-65 KT AT 5000 FT.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

7 AM UPDATE...
HAVE LOWERED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MASS BAY...IPSWICH
BAY...CAPE COD BAY...AND NANTUCKET SOUND AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
TO ABOUT 20 KT OR LESS. AS SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH OFFSHORE
TODAY...THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...
LOW PRES WILL SLIDE S OF THE WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE W
TO N EARLY WED MORNING WITH GUSTS INCREASING AS THEY SHIFT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS ALSO INCREASE SUCH THAT 5-7 FT
SEAS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON WED. THEREFORE...AFTER A
BRIEF LULL TODAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY NEEDED LATE
TONIGHT...BUT WITH ONGOING HEADLINE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH STALLS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND THEN AS A
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVES INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SHIFTING TO THE TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS AT LEAST ON THE OUTER WATERS...IF NOT ON THE INTERIOR BAYS
AND SOUNDS AT TIMES. LOW PROBABILITY OF A GALE FORCE GUST OR TWO
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/GAF
NEAR TERM...DOODY/GAF
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...DOODY/GAF
MARINE...DOODY/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 311105
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
705 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AHEAD A COLD FRONT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY AND MUCH
COLDER SUNDAY. STILL COOL WITH A CHANCE OF A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER
ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
7 AM UPDATE...

MADE MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND SPED UP THE ONSET OF INCREASING CLOUDS. OTHERWISE
CURRENT FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK. A FEW LOW AND MID CLOUDS
CONTINUED ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WAS PASSING THROUGH. DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COLD
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO FALLING H85
TEMPS...PREVENTING DAYTIME HIGHS FROM REACHING SEASONAL NORMALS.
MAINLY THE MID-UPPER 40S ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM
THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WITH CP ORIGINS WILL BE RIDING STALLED
BAROCLINIC ZONE S OF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND WATERS DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT ODDS IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS HOW FAR N
THE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL REACH.
YESTERDAY/S RUNS WERE OFFSHORE. TONIGHT...A SHIFT BACK TO THE
N...EVEN IN AVAILABLE MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE. NOTE A MODEST LOW-MID
LVL F-GEN AXIS WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT PROFILES AS A CHANNEL
OF NEGATIVE OMEGA BETWEEN H8 AND H6. DRY AIR WILL BE ENTRAINING
INTO THE LOW-LVLS FROM THE N THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD.

GIVEN THESE FACTORS...LOOKS LIKE A LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM SW THEN DUE E THROUGH THE EVENING-
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE DRY AIR WINS ANYWHERE
S OF A LINE DRAWN ACROSS THE CT/RI BORDER WITH MA AND SE MA. THE
CLOSER TO THE COAST THAT ONE GETS...THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
STEADY PRECIP...SO IT/S LIKELY SOME AREAS TOWARD THE EDGE OF THE
SHIELD RECEIVE SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AT BEST.

REGARDING P-TYPE...LOW-LVL TEMP PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A RAINY
START IN CT THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW AS THE PRECIP SHIELD SHIFTS E. THERE IS SOME MODERATE
LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITE ZONE ALOFT...SO IT/S POSSIBLE THE CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW COULD OCCUR FASTER IN AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIP THANKS
TO DYNAMIC COOLING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE ENDING. ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT TO NIL...AND MAINLY ON GRASSY
SFCS.

WEDNESDAY...
COLD ADVECTION AND HIGH PRES FOLLOWS THE DEVELOPING CLIPPER
OFFSHORE. SKIES CLEAR...BUT WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING BACK TO -8C TO
-10C SUSPECT ANOTHER DAY WHERE HIGH TEMPS REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. MAINLY LOW-MID 40S EXPECTED...BREEZY WITH WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR NORMAL THU AND ABOVE NORMAL FRI
* STORM SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDING
CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS IN THE 20S.

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...IN THE LOWER 50S
EXCEPT COOLER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...REACHING 50 KNOTS AT 925 MB. AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO 20-25 MPH TOWARD EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND STALLS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...WITH THE GFS FASTEST
AND ECMWF SLOWEST. NEVERTHELESS...IT WILL BE A CLOUDY PERIOD WITH
A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS TO BELOW ZERO
THU NIGHT BUT OTHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION...
SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY ELEVATED THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 40S THU NIGHT...AND DESPITE
CLOUDINESS..SHOULD RISE TO ACTUAL SPRINGLIKE READINGS...IN THE
LOWER 60S FRI (UPPER 40S TO MID 50S CAPE AND ISLANDS) AS 850 MB
TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +10C. GFS MEX GUIDANCE ACTUALLY GIVES 66 FOR
BDL FRI BUT WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...HAVE HELD
CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTENSIFY ALONG
THE STALLED FRONT AS IT REACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF ABOUT 0.5 INCHES...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF 1 INCH OF RAIN. THE GFS
STRENGTHENS THE LOW TO 995 MB AND HAS IT MOVING INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE WITH ENOUGH PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND TO CAUSE A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF MA. THE ECMWF HAS
TRENDED COLDER...BUT NOT THAT COLD. YESTERDAY IT HAD AN INTENSE
STORM OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AND THIS MORNING/S RUN HAS IT OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE...CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. HOWEVER...
ANY LEFTOVER SNOW WOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THAT IS HOW WE CURRENTLY PLAYED THIS.  THE
PRECIPITATION CLEARS OUT BY ABOUT NOON ON SATURDAY. HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY...MAINLY SUNNY AND DRY BUT MUCH COLDER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S...BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
PASSING FLURRY IN THE MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES
THROUGH.

MONDAY...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN...OR
POSSIBLY MIXED PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN MA...BY LATE MONDAY.
THE ECMWF IMPLIES THAT THIS COULD BE A LONG DURATION EVENT INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BECAUSE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM CANADA. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE
ORIENTATION OF THAT HIGH. ANYWAY...THAT IS A WHOLE WEEK AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME W WINDS GUSTING TO 20+ KT AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY E MA.

THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ESPECIALLY S OF AN
HFD-IJD-PYM LINE. VFR TO THE N. CONDITIONS IMPROVE DURING EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ANY SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT...AND MAINLY ON GRASS
RATHER THAN RUNWAYS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF...AT ISSUE IS THE CHANCE FOR
A WINDOW OF MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR BECOMING
MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 10-20 KT
INCREASING TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 55-65 KT AT 5000 FT.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

7 AM UPDATE...
HAVE LOWERED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MASS BAY...IPSWICH
BAY...CAPE COD BAY...AND NANTUCKET SOUND AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
TO ABOUT 20 KT OR LESS. AS SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH OFFSHORE
TODAY...THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...
LOW PRES WILL SLIDE S OF THE WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE W
TO N EARLY WED MORNING WITH GUSTS INCREASING AS THEY SHIFT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS ALSO INCREASE SUCH THAT 5-7 FT
SEAS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON WED. THEREFORE...AFTER A
BRIEF LULL TODAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY NEEDED LATE
TONIGHT...BUT WITH ONGOING HEADLINE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH STALLS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND THEN AS A
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVES INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SHIFTING TO THE TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS AT LEAST ON THE OUTER WATERS...IF NOT ON THE INTERIOR BAYS
AND SOUNDS AT TIMES. LOW PROBABILITY OF A GALE FORCE GUST OR TWO
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/GAF
NEAR TERM...DOODY/GAF
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...DOODY/GAF
MARINE...DOODY/GAF



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KGYX 311036 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
636 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY
WITH A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. SHOWERY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN
OR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SECONDARY S/WV TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA
THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED A SMALL SURGE IN UPSLOPE SHSN
ACTIVITY AS IT CROSSES THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THRU SUNRISE ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS AND NRN ZONES.

AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...WE WILL SEE
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING IN THE N...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S
NEAR THE COAST. NW FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TRAILING S/WV TROF CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEVELOP A WEAK
LOW PRES TONIGHT. THIS WILL CROSS VERY NEAR SRN NEW ENGLAND...BUT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO REMAIN S OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLOUD
COVER MAY WORK INTO SRN ZONES...BEFORE CLEARING LATE. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL TRY AND BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE...AND MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL BE
A CHILLY NIGHT...WITH READINGS SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
A NICE CONTINUATION OF THE THEME ESTABLISHED FOR THIS MARCH SO
FAR.

ON WED THE ONLY FOOLS WILL BE THOSE LOOKING FOR SPRING...AS TEMPS
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL YET AGAIN TO START THE NEW MONTH. WITH
COOL HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AND LITTLE MIXING...TEMPS WILL ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE HIGH 30S NEAR THE COAST AND LOW 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND LOW 20S IN SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A SOUTHWEST
FLOW BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES... MAINLY IN THE 40S.

UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL JUST
OFFSHORE... KEEPING SHOWERY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SOME DISCREPANCY EXISTS AS TO WHETHER THIS LOW WILL TRACK NEAR THE
MASSACHUSETTS/NEW HAMPSHIRE LINE OR WHETHER IT WILL TRACK OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK WOULD ALLOW MORE
OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO FALL AS SNOW
ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. CURRENTLY EXPECT SNOW TO PRIMARILY
BE LIMITED TO NORTHERN AREAS... THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW EVEN TO THE COAST BEFORE ENDING ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THRU WED. NW
FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS IS LEADING TO MVFR
CIGS...AND OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS IN UPSLOPE SHSN FOR AREAS NEAR
KHIE. THIS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING...AND EVENTUALLY ALL
TERMINALS GO VFR THRU WED. GUSTS WITHIN NW FLOW AROUND 17 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WED.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN SHOWERY
WEATHER COULD BRING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH RAIN OR SNOW LEADING TO
POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS EARLY TODAY
WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS S OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WILL HELP TO
REINVIGORATE NW FLOW. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY LINGER THRU WED.

LONG TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW DIMINISHES AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE
GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY MORNING. BUT FLOW QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHENS AGAIN LATER ON THURSDAY WITH ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND SPEEDS POSSIBLE. A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
STRENGTHEN WIND SPEEDS A BIT BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW GALE FORCE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 311036 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
636 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY
WITH A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. SHOWERY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN
OR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SECONDARY S/WV TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA
THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED A SMALL SURGE IN UPSLOPE SHSN
ACTIVITY AS IT CROSSES THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THRU SUNRISE ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS AND NRN ZONES.

AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...WE WILL SEE
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING IN THE N...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S
NEAR THE COAST. NW FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TRAILING S/WV TROF CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEVELOP A WEAK
LOW PRES TONIGHT. THIS WILL CROSS VERY NEAR SRN NEW ENGLAND...BUT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO REMAIN S OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLOUD
COVER MAY WORK INTO SRN ZONES...BEFORE CLEARING LATE. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL TRY AND BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE...AND MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL BE
A CHILLY NIGHT...WITH READINGS SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
A NICE CONTINUATION OF THE THEME ESTABLISHED FOR THIS MARCH SO
FAR.

ON WED THE ONLY FOOLS WILL BE THOSE LOOKING FOR SPRING...AS TEMPS
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL YET AGAIN TO START THE NEW MONTH. WITH
COOL HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AND LITTLE MIXING...TEMPS WILL ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE HIGH 30S NEAR THE COAST AND LOW 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND LOW 20S IN SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A SOUTHWEST
FLOW BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES... MAINLY IN THE 40S.

UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL JUST
OFFSHORE... KEEPING SHOWERY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SOME DISCREPANCY EXISTS AS TO WHETHER THIS LOW WILL TRACK NEAR THE
MASSACHUSETTS/NEW HAMPSHIRE LINE OR WHETHER IT WILL TRACK OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK WOULD ALLOW MORE
OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO FALL AS SNOW
ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. CURRENTLY EXPECT SNOW TO PRIMARILY
BE LIMITED TO NORTHERN AREAS... THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW EVEN TO THE COAST BEFORE ENDING ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THRU WED. NW
FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS IS LEADING TO MVFR
CIGS...AND OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS IN UPSLOPE SHSN FOR AREAS NEAR
KHIE. THIS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING...AND EVENTUALLY ALL
TERMINALS GO VFR THRU WED. GUSTS WITHIN NW FLOW AROUND 17 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WED.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN SHOWERY
WEATHER COULD BRING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH RAIN OR SNOW LEADING TO
POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS EARLY TODAY
WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS S OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WILL HELP TO
REINVIGORATE NW FLOW. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY LINGER THRU WED.

LONG TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW DIMINISHES AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE
GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY MORNING. BUT FLOW QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHENS AGAIN LATER ON THURSDAY WITH ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND SPEEDS POSSIBLE. A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
STRENGTHEN WIND SPEEDS A BIT BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW GALE FORCE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KBOX 310900
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
500 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AHEAD A COLD FRONT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY AND MUCH
COLDER SUNDAY. STILL COOL WITH A CHANCE OF A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER
ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
A FEW LOW-MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THEN CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING. DRY WX
PREVAILS THROUGH THE DAY. THE COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL LEAD TO FALLING H85 TEMPS...PREVENTING DAYTIME HIGHS
FROM REACHING SEASONAL NORMALS. MAINLY THE MID-UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WITH CP ORIGINS WILL BE RIDING STALLED
BAROCLINIC ZONE S OF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND WATERS DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT ODDS IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS HOW FAR N
THE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL REACH.
YESTERDAY/S RUNS WERE OFFSHORE. TONIGHT...A SHIFT BACK TO THE
N...EVEN IN AVAILABLE MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE. NOTE A MODEST LOW-MID
LVL F-GEN AXIS WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT PROFILES AS A CHANNEL
OF NEGATIVE OMEGA BETWEEN H8 AND H6. DRY AIR WILL BE ENTRAINING
INTO THE LOW-LVLS FROM THE N THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD.

GIVEN THESE FACTORS...LOOKS LIKE A LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM SW THEN DUE E THROUGH THE EVENING-
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE DRY AIR WINS ANYWHERE
S OF A LINE DRAWN ACROSS THE CT/RI BORDER WITH MA AND SE MA. THE
CLOSER TO THE COAST THAT ONE GETS...THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
STEADY PRECIP...SO IT/S LIKELY SOME AREAS TOWARD THE EDGE OF THE
SHIELD RECEIVE SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AT BEST.

REGARDING P-TYPE...LOW-LVL TEMP PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A RAINY
START IN CT THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW AS THE PRECIP SHIELD SHIFTS E. THERE IS SOME MODERATE
LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITE ZONE ALOFT...SO IT/S POSSIBLE THE CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW COULD OCCUR FASTER IN AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIP THANKS
TO DYNAMIC COOLING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE ENDING. ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT TO NIL...AND MAINLY ON GRASSY
SFCS.

WEDNESDAY...
COLD ADVECTION AND HIGH PRES FOLLOWS THE DEVELOPING CLIPPER
OFFSHORE. SKIES CLEAR...BUT WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING BACK TO -8C TO
-10C SUSPECT ANOTHER DAY WHERE HIGH TEMPS REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. MAINLY LOW-MID 40S EXPECTED...BREEZY WITH WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR NORMAL THU AND ABOVE NORMAL FRI
* STORM SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDING
CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS IN THE 20S.

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...IN THE LOWER 50S
EXCEPT COOLER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...REACHING 50 KNOTS AT 925 MB. AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO 20-25 MPH TOWARD EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND STALLS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...WITH THE GFS FASTEST
AND ECMWF SLOWEST. NEVERTHELESS...IT WILL BE A CLOUDY PERIOD WITH
A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS TO BELOW ZERO
THU NIGHT BUT OTHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION...
SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY ELEVATED THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 40S THU NIGHT...AND DESPITE
CLOUDINESS..SHOULD RISE TO ACTUAL SPRINGLIKE READINGS...IN THE
LOWER 60S FRI (UPPER 40S TO MID 50S CAPE AND ISLANDS) AS 850 MB
TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +10C. GFS MEX GUIDANCE ACTUALLY GIVES 66 FOR
BDL FRI BUT WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...HAVE HELD
CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTENSIFY ALONG
THE STALLED FRONT AS IT REACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF ABOUT 0.5 INCHES...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF 1 INCH OF RAIN. THE GFS
STRENGTHENS THE LOW TO 995 MB AND HAS IT MOVING INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE WITH ENOUGH PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND TO CAUSE A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF MA. THE ECMWF HAS
TRENDED COLDER...BUT NOT THAT COLD. YESTERDAY IT HAD AN INTENSE
STORM OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AND THIS MORNING/S RUN HAS IT OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE...CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. HOWEVER...
ANY LEFTOVER SNOW WOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THAT IS HOW WE CURRENTLY PLAYED THIS.  THE
PRECIPITATION CLEARS OUT BY ABOUT NOON ON SATURDAY. HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY...MAINLY SUNNY AND DRY BUT MUCH COLDER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S...BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
PASSING FLURRY IN THE MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES
THROUGH.

MONDAY...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN...OR
POSSIBLY MIXED PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN MA...BY LATE MONDAY.
THE ECMWF IMPLIES THAT THIS COULD BE A LONG DURATION EVENT INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BECAUSE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM CANADA. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE
ORIENTATION OF THAT HIGH. ANYWAY...THAT IS A WHOLE WEEK AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME W
WINDS GUSTING 20+ AT TIMES ESPECIALLY E MA.

THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ESPECIALLY S OF AN
HFD-IJD-PYM LINE. VFR TO THE N. CONDITIONS IMPROVE DURING EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ANY SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT...AND MAINLY ON GRASS
RATHER THAN RUNWAYS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF...AT ISSUE IS THE CHANCE FOR
A WINDOW OF MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR BECOMING
MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 10-20 KT
INCREASING TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 55-65 KT AT 5000 FT.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TODAY...
W WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KT THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
SEAS OFFSHORE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THEREFORE...CURRENT ONGOING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...
LOW PRES WILL SLIDE S OF THE WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE W
TO N EARLY WED MORNING WITH GUSTS INCREASING AS THEY SHIFT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS ALSO INCREASE SUCH THAT 5-7 FT
SEAS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON WED. THEREFORE...AFTER A
BRIEF LULL TODAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY NEEDED LATE
TONIGHT...BUT WITH ONGOING HEADLINE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH STALLS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND THEN AS A
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVES INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SHIFTING TO THE TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS AT LEAST ON THE OUTER WATERS...IF NOT ON THE INTERIOR BAYS
AND SOUNDS AT TIMES. LOW PROBABILITY OF A GALE FORCE GUST OR TWO
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ231-232-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/GAF
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...DOODY/GAF
MARINE...DOODY/GAF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310900
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
500 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AHEAD A COLD FRONT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY AND MUCH
COLDER SUNDAY. STILL COOL WITH A CHANCE OF A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER
ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
A FEW LOW-MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THEN CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING. DRY WX
PREVAILS THROUGH THE DAY. THE COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL LEAD TO FALLING H85 TEMPS...PREVENTING DAYTIME HIGHS
FROM REACHING SEASONAL NORMALS. MAINLY THE MID-UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WITH CP ORIGINS WILL BE RIDING STALLED
BAROCLINIC ZONE S OF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND WATERS DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT ODDS IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS HOW FAR N
THE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL REACH.
YESTERDAY/S RUNS WERE OFFSHORE. TONIGHT...A SHIFT BACK TO THE
N...EVEN IN AVAILABLE MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE. NOTE A MODEST LOW-MID
LVL F-GEN AXIS WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT PROFILES AS A CHANNEL
OF NEGATIVE OMEGA BETWEEN H8 AND H6. DRY AIR WILL BE ENTRAINING
INTO THE LOW-LVLS FROM THE N THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD.

GIVEN THESE FACTORS...LOOKS LIKE A LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM SW THEN DUE E THROUGH THE EVENING-
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE DRY AIR WINS ANYWHERE
S OF A LINE DRAWN ACROSS THE CT/RI BORDER WITH MA AND SE MA. THE
CLOSER TO THE COAST THAT ONE GETS...THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
STEADY PRECIP...SO IT/S LIKELY SOME AREAS TOWARD THE EDGE OF THE
SHIELD RECEIVE SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AT BEST.

REGARDING P-TYPE...LOW-LVL TEMP PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A RAINY
START IN CT THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW AS THE PRECIP SHIELD SHIFTS E. THERE IS SOME MODERATE
LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITE ZONE ALOFT...SO IT/S POSSIBLE THE CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW COULD OCCUR FASTER IN AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIP THANKS
TO DYNAMIC COOLING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE ENDING. ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT TO NIL...AND MAINLY ON GRASSY
SFCS.

WEDNESDAY...
COLD ADVECTION AND HIGH PRES FOLLOWS THE DEVELOPING CLIPPER
OFFSHORE. SKIES CLEAR...BUT WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING BACK TO -8C TO
-10C SUSPECT ANOTHER DAY WHERE HIGH TEMPS REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. MAINLY LOW-MID 40S EXPECTED...BREEZY WITH WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR NORMAL THU AND ABOVE NORMAL FRI
* STORM SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDING
CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS IN THE 20S.

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...IN THE LOWER 50S
EXCEPT COOLER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...REACHING 50 KNOTS AT 925 MB. AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO 20-25 MPH TOWARD EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND STALLS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...WITH THE GFS FASTEST
AND ECMWF SLOWEST. NEVERTHELESS...IT WILL BE A CLOUDY PERIOD WITH
A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS TO BELOW ZERO
THU NIGHT BUT OTHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION...
SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY ELEVATED THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 40S THU NIGHT...AND DESPITE
CLOUDINESS..SHOULD RISE TO ACTUAL SPRINGLIKE READINGS...IN THE
LOWER 60S FRI (UPPER 40S TO MID 50S CAPE AND ISLANDS) AS 850 MB
TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +10C. GFS MEX GUIDANCE ACTUALLY GIVES 66 FOR
BDL FRI BUT WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...HAVE HELD
CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTENSIFY ALONG
THE STALLED FRONT AS IT REACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF ABOUT 0.5 INCHES...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF 1 INCH OF RAIN. THE GFS
STRENGTHENS THE LOW TO 995 MB AND HAS IT MOVING INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE WITH ENOUGH PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND TO CAUSE A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF MA. THE ECMWF HAS
TRENDED COLDER...BUT NOT THAT COLD. YESTERDAY IT HAD AN INTENSE
STORM OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AND THIS MORNING/S RUN HAS IT OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE...CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. HOWEVER...
ANY LEFTOVER SNOW WOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THAT IS HOW WE CURRENTLY PLAYED THIS.  THE
PRECIPITATION CLEARS OUT BY ABOUT NOON ON SATURDAY. HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY...MAINLY SUNNY AND DRY BUT MUCH COLDER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S...BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
PASSING FLURRY IN THE MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES
THROUGH.

MONDAY...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN...OR
POSSIBLY MIXED PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN MA...BY LATE MONDAY.
THE ECMWF IMPLIES THAT THIS COULD BE A LONG DURATION EVENT INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BECAUSE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM CANADA. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE
ORIENTATION OF THAT HIGH. ANYWAY...THAT IS A WHOLE WEEK AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME W
WINDS GUSTING 20+ AT TIMES ESPECIALLY E MA.

THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ESPECIALLY S OF AN
HFD-IJD-PYM LINE. VFR TO THE N. CONDITIONS IMPROVE DURING EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ANY SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT...AND MAINLY ON GRASS
RATHER THAN RUNWAYS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF...AT ISSUE IS THE CHANCE FOR
A WINDOW OF MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR BECOMING
MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 10-20 KT
INCREASING TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 55-65 KT AT 5000 FT.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TODAY...
W WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KT THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
SEAS OFFSHORE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THEREFORE...CURRENT ONGOING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...
LOW PRES WILL SLIDE S OF THE WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE W
TO N EARLY WED MORNING WITH GUSTS INCREASING AS THEY SHIFT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS ALSO INCREASE SUCH THAT 5-7 FT
SEAS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON WED. THEREFORE...AFTER A
BRIEF LULL TODAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY NEEDED LATE
TONIGHT...BUT WITH ONGOING HEADLINE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH STALLS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND THEN AS A
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVES INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SHIFTING TO THE TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS AT LEAST ON THE OUTER WATERS...IF NOT ON THE INTERIOR BAYS
AND SOUNDS AT TIMES. LOW PROBABILITY OF A GALE FORCE GUST OR TWO
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ231-232-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/GAF
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...DOODY/GAF
MARINE...DOODY/GAF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310747
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
347 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS WEEK THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
A FEW LOW-MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THEN CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING. DRY WX
PREVAILS THROUGH THE DAY. THE COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL LEAD TO FALLING H85 TEMPS...PREVENTING DAYTIME HIGHS
FROM REACHING SEASONAL NORMALS. MAINLY THE MID-UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WITH CP ORIGINS WILL BE RIDING STALLED
BAROCLINIC ZONE S OF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND WATERS DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT ODDS IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS HOW FAR N
THE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL REACH.
YESTERDAY/S RUNS WERE OFFSHORE. TONIGHT...A SHIFT BACK TO THE
N...EVEN IN AVAILABLE MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE. NOTE A MODEST LOW-MID
LVL F-GEN AXIS WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT PROFILES AS A CHANNEL
OF NEGATIVE OMEGA BETWEEN H8 AND H6. DRY AIR WILL BE ENTRAINING
INTO THE LOW-LVLS FROM THE N THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD.

GIVEN THESE FACTORS...LOOKS LIKE A LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM SW THEN DUE E THROUGH THE EVENING-
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE DRY AIR WINS ANYWHERE
S OF A LINE DRAWN ACROSS THE CT/RI BORDER WITH MA AND SE MA. THE
CLOSER TO THE COAST THAT ONE GETS...THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
STEADY PRECIP...SO IT/S LIKELY SOME AREAS TOWARD THE EDGE OF THE
SHIELD RECEIVE SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AT BEST.

REGARDING P-TYPE...LOW-LVL TEMP PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A RAINY
START IN CT THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW AS THE PRECIP SHIELD SHIFTS E. THERE IS SOME MODERATE
LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITE ZONE ALOFT...SO IT/S POSSIBLE THE CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW COULD OCCUR FASTER IN AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIP THANKS
TO DYNAMIC COOLING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE ENDING. ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT TO NIL...AND MAINLY ON GRASSY
SFCS.

WEDNESDAY...
COLD ADVECTION AND HIGH PRES FOLLOWS THE DEVELOPING CLIPPER
OFFSHORE. SKIES CLEAR...BUT WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING BACK TO -8C TO
-10C SUSPECT ANOTHER DAY WHERE HIGH TEMPS REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. MAINLY LOW-MID 40S EXPECTED...BREEZY WITH WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD SCALE WITH SOME EXPECTED
DETAIL DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS/COLD FRONTS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. EXCELLENT MIXING...
COUPLED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR
ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT...LOOKING AT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF QPF. THERE ARE STILL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS PERIOD SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN THEY WILL ACTUALLY
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY GIVING US OUR FIRST 60+ DEGREE DAY OF
THE SPRING. TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY...DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS THE LAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

MONDAY...ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE ONCE AGAIN...CREEPING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME W
WINDS GUSTING 20+ AT TIMES ESPECIALLY E MA.

THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ESPECIALLY S OF AN
HFD-IJD-PYM LINE. VFR TO THE N. CONDITIONS IMPROVE DURING EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ANY SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT...AND MAINLY ON GRASS
RATHER THAN RUNWAYS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF...AT ISSUE IS THE CHANCE FOR
A WINDOW OF MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT IN FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TODAY...
W WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KT THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
SEAS OFFSHORE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THEREFORE...CURRENT ONGOING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...
LOW PRES WILL SLIDE S OF THE WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE W
TO N EARLY WED MORNING WITH GUSTS INCREASING AS THEY SHIFT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS ALSO INCREASE SUCH THAT 5-7 FT
SEAS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON WED. THEREFORE...AFTER A
BRIEF LULL TODAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY NEEDED LATE
TONIGHT...BUT WITH ONGOING HEADLINE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS TWO SEPARATE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND THEIR COLD FRONTS APPROACH THE WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS AT LEAST ON THE
OUTER WATERS...IF NOT ON THE INTERIOR BAYS AND SOUNDS AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ231-232-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...DOODY/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 310747
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
347 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS WEEK THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
A FEW LOW-MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THEN CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING. DRY WX
PREVAILS THROUGH THE DAY. THE COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL LEAD TO FALLING H85 TEMPS...PREVENTING DAYTIME HIGHS
FROM REACHING SEASONAL NORMALS. MAINLY THE MID-UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WITH CP ORIGINS WILL BE RIDING STALLED
BAROCLINIC ZONE S OF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND WATERS DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT ODDS IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS HOW FAR N
THE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL REACH.
YESTERDAY/S RUNS WERE OFFSHORE. TONIGHT...A SHIFT BACK TO THE
N...EVEN IN AVAILABLE MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE. NOTE A MODEST LOW-MID
LVL F-GEN AXIS WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT PROFILES AS A CHANNEL
OF NEGATIVE OMEGA BETWEEN H8 AND H6. DRY AIR WILL BE ENTRAINING
INTO THE LOW-LVLS FROM THE N THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD.

GIVEN THESE FACTORS...LOOKS LIKE A LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM SW THEN DUE E THROUGH THE EVENING-
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE DRY AIR WINS ANYWHERE
S OF A LINE DRAWN ACROSS THE CT/RI BORDER WITH MA AND SE MA. THE
CLOSER TO THE COAST THAT ONE GETS...THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
STEADY PRECIP...SO IT/S LIKELY SOME AREAS TOWARD THE EDGE OF THE
SHIELD RECEIVE SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AT BEST.

REGARDING P-TYPE...LOW-LVL TEMP PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A RAINY
START IN CT THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW AS THE PRECIP SHIELD SHIFTS E. THERE IS SOME MODERATE
LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITE ZONE ALOFT...SO IT/S POSSIBLE THE CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW COULD OCCUR FASTER IN AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIP THANKS
TO DYNAMIC COOLING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE ENDING. ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT TO NIL...AND MAINLY ON GRASSY
SFCS.

WEDNESDAY...
COLD ADVECTION AND HIGH PRES FOLLOWS THE DEVELOPING CLIPPER
OFFSHORE. SKIES CLEAR...BUT WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING BACK TO -8C TO
-10C SUSPECT ANOTHER DAY WHERE HIGH TEMPS REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. MAINLY LOW-MID 40S EXPECTED...BREEZY WITH WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD SCALE WITH SOME EXPECTED
DETAIL DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS/COLD FRONTS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. EXCELLENT MIXING...
COUPLED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR
ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT...LOOKING AT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF QPF. THERE ARE STILL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS PERIOD SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN THEY WILL ACTUALLY
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY GIVING US OUR FIRST 60+ DEGREE DAY OF
THE SPRING. TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY...DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS THE LAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

MONDAY...ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE ONCE AGAIN...CREEPING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME W
WINDS GUSTING 20+ AT TIMES ESPECIALLY E MA.

THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ESPECIALLY S OF AN
HFD-IJD-PYM LINE. VFR TO THE N. CONDITIONS IMPROVE DURING EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ANY SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT...AND MAINLY ON GRASS
RATHER THAN RUNWAYS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF...AT ISSUE IS THE CHANCE FOR
A WINDOW OF MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT IN FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TODAY...
W WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KT THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
SEAS OFFSHORE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THEREFORE...CURRENT ONGOING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...
LOW PRES WILL SLIDE S OF THE WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE W
TO N EARLY WED MORNING WITH GUSTS INCREASING AS THEY SHIFT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS ALSO INCREASE SUCH THAT 5-7 FT
SEAS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON WED. THEREFORE...AFTER A
BRIEF LULL TODAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY NEEDED LATE
TONIGHT...BUT WITH ONGOING HEADLINE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS TWO SEPARATE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND THEIR COLD FRONTS APPROACH THE WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS AT LEAST ON THE
OUTER WATERS...IF NOT ON THE INTERIOR BAYS AND SOUNDS AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ231-232-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...DOODY/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 310747
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
347 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS WEEK THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
A FEW LOW-MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THEN CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING. DRY WX
PREVAILS THROUGH THE DAY. THE COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL LEAD TO FALLING H85 TEMPS...PREVENTING DAYTIME HIGHS
FROM REACHING SEASONAL NORMALS. MAINLY THE MID-UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WITH CP ORIGINS WILL BE RIDING STALLED
BAROCLINIC ZONE S OF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND WATERS DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT ODDS IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS HOW FAR N
THE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL REACH.
YESTERDAY/S RUNS WERE OFFSHORE. TONIGHT...A SHIFT BACK TO THE
N...EVEN IN AVAILABLE MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE. NOTE A MODEST LOW-MID
LVL F-GEN AXIS WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT PROFILES AS A CHANNEL
OF NEGATIVE OMEGA BETWEEN H8 AND H6. DRY AIR WILL BE ENTRAINING
INTO THE LOW-LVLS FROM THE N THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD.

GIVEN THESE FACTORS...LOOKS LIKE A LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM SW THEN DUE E THROUGH THE EVENING-
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE DRY AIR WINS ANYWHERE
S OF A LINE DRAWN ACROSS THE CT/RI BORDER WITH MA AND SE MA. THE
CLOSER TO THE COAST THAT ONE GETS...THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
STEADY PRECIP...SO IT/S LIKELY SOME AREAS TOWARD THE EDGE OF THE
SHIELD RECEIVE SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AT BEST.

REGARDING P-TYPE...LOW-LVL TEMP PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A RAINY
START IN CT THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW AS THE PRECIP SHIELD SHIFTS E. THERE IS SOME MODERATE
LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITE ZONE ALOFT...SO IT/S POSSIBLE THE CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW COULD OCCUR FASTER IN AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIP THANKS
TO DYNAMIC COOLING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE ENDING. ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT TO NIL...AND MAINLY ON GRASSY
SFCS.

WEDNESDAY...
COLD ADVECTION AND HIGH PRES FOLLOWS THE DEVELOPING CLIPPER
OFFSHORE. SKIES CLEAR...BUT WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING BACK TO -8C TO
-10C SUSPECT ANOTHER DAY WHERE HIGH TEMPS REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. MAINLY LOW-MID 40S EXPECTED...BREEZY WITH WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD SCALE WITH SOME EXPECTED
DETAIL DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS/COLD FRONTS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. EXCELLENT MIXING...
COUPLED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR
ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT...LOOKING AT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF QPF. THERE ARE STILL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS PERIOD SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN THEY WILL ACTUALLY
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY GIVING US OUR FIRST 60+ DEGREE DAY OF
THE SPRING. TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY...DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS THE LAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

MONDAY...ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE ONCE AGAIN...CREEPING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME W
WINDS GUSTING 20+ AT TIMES ESPECIALLY E MA.

THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ESPECIALLY S OF AN
HFD-IJD-PYM LINE. VFR TO THE N. CONDITIONS IMPROVE DURING EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ANY SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT...AND MAINLY ON GRASS
RATHER THAN RUNWAYS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF...AT ISSUE IS THE CHANCE FOR
A WINDOW OF MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT IN FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TODAY...
W WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KT THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
SEAS OFFSHORE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THEREFORE...CURRENT ONGOING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...
LOW PRES WILL SLIDE S OF THE WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE W
TO N EARLY WED MORNING WITH GUSTS INCREASING AS THEY SHIFT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS ALSO INCREASE SUCH THAT 5-7 FT
SEAS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON WED. THEREFORE...AFTER A
BRIEF LULL TODAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY NEEDED LATE
TONIGHT...BUT WITH ONGOING HEADLINE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS TWO SEPARATE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND THEIR COLD FRONTS APPROACH THE WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS AT LEAST ON THE
OUTER WATERS...IF NOT ON THE INTERIOR BAYS AND SOUNDS AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ231-232-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...DOODY/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 310747
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
347 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS WEEK THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
A FEW LOW-MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THEN CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING. DRY WX
PREVAILS THROUGH THE DAY. THE COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL LEAD TO FALLING H85 TEMPS...PREVENTING DAYTIME HIGHS
FROM REACHING SEASONAL NORMALS. MAINLY THE MID-UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WITH CP ORIGINS WILL BE RIDING STALLED
BAROCLINIC ZONE S OF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND WATERS DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT ODDS IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS HOW FAR N
THE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL REACH.
YESTERDAY/S RUNS WERE OFFSHORE. TONIGHT...A SHIFT BACK TO THE
N...EVEN IN AVAILABLE MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE. NOTE A MODEST LOW-MID
LVL F-GEN AXIS WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT PROFILES AS A CHANNEL
OF NEGATIVE OMEGA BETWEEN H8 AND H6. DRY AIR WILL BE ENTRAINING
INTO THE LOW-LVLS FROM THE N THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD.

GIVEN THESE FACTORS...LOOKS LIKE A LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM SW THEN DUE E THROUGH THE EVENING-
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE DRY AIR WINS ANYWHERE
S OF A LINE DRAWN ACROSS THE CT/RI BORDER WITH MA AND SE MA. THE
CLOSER TO THE COAST THAT ONE GETS...THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
STEADY PRECIP...SO IT/S LIKELY SOME AREAS TOWARD THE EDGE OF THE
SHIELD RECEIVE SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AT BEST.

REGARDING P-TYPE...LOW-LVL TEMP PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A RAINY
START IN CT THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW AS THE PRECIP SHIELD SHIFTS E. THERE IS SOME MODERATE
LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITE ZONE ALOFT...SO IT/S POSSIBLE THE CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW COULD OCCUR FASTER IN AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIP THANKS
TO DYNAMIC COOLING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE ENDING. ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT TO NIL...AND MAINLY ON GRASSY
SFCS.

WEDNESDAY...
COLD ADVECTION AND HIGH PRES FOLLOWS THE DEVELOPING CLIPPER
OFFSHORE. SKIES CLEAR...BUT WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING BACK TO -8C TO
-10C SUSPECT ANOTHER DAY WHERE HIGH TEMPS REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. MAINLY LOW-MID 40S EXPECTED...BREEZY WITH WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD SCALE WITH SOME EXPECTED
DETAIL DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS/COLD FRONTS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. EXCELLENT MIXING...
COUPLED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR
ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT...LOOKING AT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF QPF. THERE ARE STILL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS PERIOD SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN THEY WILL ACTUALLY
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY GIVING US OUR FIRST 60+ DEGREE DAY OF
THE SPRING. TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY...DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS THE LAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

MONDAY...ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE ONCE AGAIN...CREEPING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME W
WINDS GUSTING 20+ AT TIMES ESPECIALLY E MA.

THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ESPECIALLY S OF AN
HFD-IJD-PYM LINE. VFR TO THE N. CONDITIONS IMPROVE DURING EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ANY SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT...AND MAINLY ON GRASS
RATHER THAN RUNWAYS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF...AT ISSUE IS THE CHANCE FOR
A WINDOW OF MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT IN FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TODAY...
W WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KT THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
SEAS OFFSHORE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THEREFORE...CURRENT ONGOING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...
LOW PRES WILL SLIDE S OF THE WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE W
TO N EARLY WED MORNING WITH GUSTS INCREASING AS THEY SHIFT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS ALSO INCREASE SUCH THAT 5-7 FT
SEAS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON WED. THEREFORE...AFTER A
BRIEF LULL TODAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY NEEDED LATE
TONIGHT...BUT WITH ONGOING HEADLINE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS TWO SEPARATE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND THEIR COLD FRONTS APPROACH THE WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS AT LEAST ON THE
OUTER WATERS...IF NOT ON THE INTERIOR BAYS AND SOUNDS AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ231-232-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...DOODY/RLG



000
FXUS61 KGYX 310746
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
346 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY
WITH A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. SHOWERY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN
OR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
SECONDARY S/WV TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS HAS
ALLOWED A SMALL SURGE IN UPSLOPE SHSN ACTIVITY AS IT CROSSES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THRU SUNRISE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS AND NRN ZONES.

AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...WE WILL SEE
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING IN THE N...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S
NEAR THE COAST. NW FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
TRAILING S/WV TROF CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEVELOP A WEAK
LOW PRES TONIGHT. THIS WILL CROSS VERY NEAR SRN NEW ENGLAND...BUT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO REMAIN S OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLOUD
COVER MAY WORK INTO SRN ZONES...BEFORE CLEARING LATE. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL TRY AND BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE...AND MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL BE
A CHILLY NIGHT...WITH READINGS SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
A NICE CONTINUATION OF THE THEME ESTABLISHED FOR THIS MARCH SO
FAR.

ON WED THE ONLY FOOLS WILL BE THOSE LOOKING FOR SPRING...AS TEMPS
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL YET AGAIN TO START THE NEW MONTH. WITH
COOL HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AND LITTLE MIXING...TEMPS WILL ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE HIGH 30S NEAR THE COAST AND LOW 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND LOW 20S IN SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A SOUTHWEST
FLOW BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES... MAINLY IN THE 40S.

UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL JUST
OFFSHORE... KEEPING SHOWERY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SOME DISCREPANCY EXISTS AS TO WHETHER THIS LOW WILL TRACK NEAR THE
MASSACHUSETTS/NEW HAMPSHIRE LINE OR WHETHER IT WILL TRACK OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK WOULD ALLOW MORE
OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO FALL AS SNOW
ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. CURRENTLY EXPECT SNOW TO PRIMARILY
BE LIMITED TO NORTHERN AREAS... THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW EVEN TO THE COAST BEFORE ENDING ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THRU WED. NW
FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS IS LEADING TO MVFR
CIGS...AND OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS IN UPSLOPE SHSN FOR AREAS NEAR
KHIE. THIS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING...AND EVENTUALLY ALL
TERMINALS GO VFR THRU WED. GUSTS WITHIN NW FLOW AROUND 17 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WED.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN SHOWERY
WEATHER COULD BRING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH RAIN OR SNOW LEADING TO
POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS EARLY TODAY
WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS S OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WILL HELP TO
REINVIGORATE NW FLOW. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY LINGER THRU WED.

LONG TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW DIMINISHES AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE
GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY MORNING. BUT FLOW QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHENS AGAIN LATER ON THURSDAY WITH ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND SPEEDS POSSIBLE. A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
STRENGTHEN WIND SPEEDS A BIT BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW GALE FORCE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM... LEGRO
SHORT TERM... LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 310746
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
346 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY
WITH A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. SHOWERY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN
OR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
SECONDARY S/WV TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS HAS
ALLOWED A SMALL SURGE IN UPSLOPE SHSN ACTIVITY AS IT CROSSES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THRU SUNRISE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS AND NRN ZONES.

AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...WE WILL SEE
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING IN THE N...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S
NEAR THE COAST. NW FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
TRAILING S/WV TROF CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEVELOP A WEAK
LOW PRES TONIGHT. THIS WILL CROSS VERY NEAR SRN NEW ENGLAND...BUT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO REMAIN S OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLOUD
COVER MAY WORK INTO SRN ZONES...BEFORE CLEARING LATE. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL TRY AND BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE...AND MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL BE
A CHILLY NIGHT...WITH READINGS SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
A NICE CONTINUATION OF THE THEME ESTABLISHED FOR THIS MARCH SO
FAR.

ON WED THE ONLY FOOLS WILL BE THOSE LOOKING FOR SPRING...AS TEMPS
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL YET AGAIN TO START THE NEW MONTH. WITH
COOL HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AND LITTLE MIXING...TEMPS WILL ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE HIGH 30S NEAR THE COAST AND LOW 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND LOW 20S IN SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A SOUTHWEST
FLOW BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES... MAINLY IN THE 40S.

UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL JUST
OFFSHORE... KEEPING SHOWERY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SOME DISCREPANCY EXISTS AS TO WHETHER THIS LOW WILL TRACK NEAR THE
MASSACHUSETTS/NEW HAMPSHIRE LINE OR WHETHER IT WILL TRACK OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK WOULD ALLOW MORE
OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO FALL AS SNOW
ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. CURRENTLY EXPECT SNOW TO PRIMARILY
BE LIMITED TO NORTHERN AREAS... THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW EVEN TO THE COAST BEFORE ENDING ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THRU WED. NW
FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS IS LEADING TO MVFR
CIGS...AND OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS IN UPSLOPE SHSN FOR AREAS NEAR
KHIE. THIS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING...AND EVENTUALLY ALL
TERMINALS GO VFR THRU WED. GUSTS WITHIN NW FLOW AROUND 17 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WED.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN SHOWERY
WEATHER COULD BRING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH RAIN OR SNOW LEADING TO
POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS EARLY TODAY
WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS S OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WILL HELP TO
REINVIGORATE NW FLOW. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY LINGER THRU WED.

LONG TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW DIMINISHES AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE
GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY MORNING. BUT FLOW QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHENS AGAIN LATER ON THURSDAY WITH ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND SPEEDS POSSIBLE. A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
STRENGTHEN WIND SPEEDS A BIT BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW GALE FORCE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM... LEGRO
SHORT TERM... LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 310746
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
346 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY
WITH A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. SHOWERY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN
OR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
SECONDARY S/WV TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS HAS
ALLOWED A SMALL SURGE IN UPSLOPE SHSN ACTIVITY AS IT CROSSES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THRU SUNRISE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS AND NRN ZONES.

AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...WE WILL SEE
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING IN THE N...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S
NEAR THE COAST. NW FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
TRAILING S/WV TROF CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEVELOP A WEAK
LOW PRES TONIGHT. THIS WILL CROSS VERY NEAR SRN NEW ENGLAND...BUT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO REMAIN S OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLOUD
COVER MAY WORK INTO SRN ZONES...BEFORE CLEARING LATE. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL TRY AND BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE...AND MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL BE
A CHILLY NIGHT...WITH READINGS SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
A NICE CONTINUATION OF THE THEME ESTABLISHED FOR THIS MARCH SO
FAR.

ON WED THE ONLY FOOLS WILL BE THOSE LOOKING FOR SPRING...AS TEMPS
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL YET AGAIN TO START THE NEW MONTH. WITH
COOL HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AND LITTLE MIXING...TEMPS WILL ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE HIGH 30S NEAR THE COAST AND LOW 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND LOW 20S IN SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A SOUTHWEST
FLOW BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES... MAINLY IN THE 40S.

UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL JUST
OFFSHORE... KEEPING SHOWERY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SOME DISCREPANCY EXISTS AS TO WHETHER THIS LOW WILL TRACK NEAR THE
MASSACHUSETTS/NEW HAMPSHIRE LINE OR WHETHER IT WILL TRACK OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK WOULD ALLOW MORE
OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO FALL AS SNOW
ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. CURRENTLY EXPECT SNOW TO PRIMARILY
BE LIMITED TO NORTHERN AREAS... THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW EVEN TO THE COAST BEFORE ENDING ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THRU WED. NW
FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS IS LEADING TO MVFR
CIGS...AND OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS IN UPSLOPE SHSN FOR AREAS NEAR
KHIE. THIS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING...AND EVENTUALLY ALL
TERMINALS GO VFR THRU WED. GUSTS WITHIN NW FLOW AROUND 17 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WED.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN SHOWERY
WEATHER COULD BRING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH RAIN OR SNOW LEADING TO
POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS EARLY TODAY
WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS S OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WILL HELP TO
REINVIGORATE NW FLOW. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY LINGER THRU WED.

LONG TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW DIMINISHES AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE
GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY MORNING. BUT FLOW QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHENS AGAIN LATER ON THURSDAY WITH ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND SPEEDS POSSIBLE. A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
STRENGTHEN WIND SPEEDS A BIT BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW GALE FORCE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM... LEGRO
SHORT TERM... LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 310746
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
346 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY
WITH A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. SHOWERY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN
OR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
SECONDARY S/WV TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS HAS
ALLOWED A SMALL SURGE IN UPSLOPE SHSN ACTIVITY AS IT CROSSES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THRU SUNRISE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS AND NRN ZONES.

AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...WE WILL SEE
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING IN THE N...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S
NEAR THE COAST. NW FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
TRAILING S/WV TROF CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEVELOP A WEAK
LOW PRES TONIGHT. THIS WILL CROSS VERY NEAR SRN NEW ENGLAND...BUT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO REMAIN S OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLOUD
COVER MAY WORK INTO SRN ZONES...BEFORE CLEARING LATE. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL TRY AND BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE...AND MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL BE
A CHILLY NIGHT...WITH READINGS SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
A NICE CONTINUATION OF THE THEME ESTABLISHED FOR THIS MARCH SO
FAR.

ON WED THE ONLY FOOLS WILL BE THOSE LOOKING FOR SPRING...AS TEMPS
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL YET AGAIN TO START THE NEW MONTH. WITH
COOL HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AND LITTLE MIXING...TEMPS WILL ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE HIGH 30S NEAR THE COAST AND LOW 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND LOW 20S IN SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A SOUTHWEST
FLOW BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES... MAINLY IN THE 40S.

UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL JUST
OFFSHORE... KEEPING SHOWERY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SOME DISCREPANCY EXISTS AS TO WHETHER THIS LOW WILL TRACK NEAR THE
MASSACHUSETTS/NEW HAMPSHIRE LINE OR WHETHER IT WILL TRACK OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK WOULD ALLOW MORE
OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO FALL AS SNOW
ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. CURRENTLY EXPECT SNOW TO PRIMARILY
BE LIMITED TO NORTHERN AREAS... THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW EVEN TO THE COAST BEFORE ENDING ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THRU WED. NW
FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS IS LEADING TO MVFR
CIGS...AND OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS IN UPSLOPE SHSN FOR AREAS NEAR
KHIE. THIS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING...AND EVENTUALLY ALL
TERMINALS GO VFR THRU WED. GUSTS WITHIN NW FLOW AROUND 17 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WED.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN SHOWERY
WEATHER COULD BRING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH RAIN OR SNOW LEADING TO
POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS EARLY TODAY
WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS S OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WILL HELP TO
REINVIGORATE NW FLOW. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY LINGER THRU WED.

LONG TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW DIMINISHES AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE
GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY MORNING. BUT FLOW QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHENS AGAIN LATER ON THURSDAY WITH ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND SPEEDS POSSIBLE. A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
STRENGTHEN WIND SPEEDS A BIT BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW GALE FORCE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM... LEGRO
SHORT TERM... LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KBOX 310538
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
138 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET NIGHT OF WEATHER PRIOR TO A CLIPPER-LOW SWEEPING SOUTH OF
THE REGION BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SOUTHERN-MOST
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS WEEK THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
MAY SEE A FEW OF THE REMNANT SHRA/SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT STILL JUST TO THE W SPILL INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES AND PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY UNTIL MAINLY ABOUT 1 AM.
AT WHICH POINT DRIER AIR AND THE LACK OF ADDITIONAL SUPPORT SHOULD
BRING MOST OF THESE TO AN END. FORECAST ON TRACK OTHERWISE. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS ARE TO BRING POPS UP TO PEED WITH THIS THINKING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

QUIET WEATHER. SCATTERED RAIN / SNOW SHOWERS CONCLUDE WITH ONLY
REMNANT MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING. BREEZY W-WINDS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND THE LOW-30S...NEAR-
SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DEPENDENCE OF THE FORECAST UPON THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ITS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE REFLECTION IN AREAS OF FAVORABLE BAROCLINICITY / THERMAL
PACKING. THE CLOSER TO THE S NEW ENGLAND SHORELINE...THE GREATER THE
IMPACT. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE NOTING
THE EC / NAM ALONG THE N-END OF THE ENVELOP WITH ALL OTHER FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SWING AND A MISS.

FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS CLIPPER LOW TRACK OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST ALONG A W-E ZONAL-FLOW. OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION APPEARS
LARGELY ABSENT THOUGH W-E SETUP...DISCREET OUTCOMES APPARENT WITH
FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING ALONG THE PARENT WARM FRONT TO THE CLIPPER
LOW AROUND H7-8. IN ADDITION BETTER MOISTURE AND QG-FORCING MAINTAIN
S OF NEW ENGLAND PARENT WITH THE LOW WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE.

SO FEEL THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIGHT MOSTLY S OF THE MASS-PIKE. SUBSEQUENTLY WITH DRY LOW-
LEVELS AT ONSET FEEL WETBULBING / DYNAMIC COOLING OF LOW-LEVELS WILL
BE MINIMAL AGAINST HIGHS THAT ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW- TO
MID-40S WITH DAYTIME HEATING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STORM WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE LATE. YET PROCEEDING INTO A EVENING ALONG WITH AN
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF WINDS THAT WILL FUNNEL OUT OF THE N ABSENT
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...FEEL PRECIP-TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN RAIN /
SNOW FROM WHICH AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
IF ANY...A TRACE AT MOST ON LINGERING SNOWPACK / ELEVATED SURFACES.

GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND ISLANDS.
MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH
SNOW...IF ANYTHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD SCALE WITH SOME EXPECTED
DETAIL DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS/COLD FRONTS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. EXCELLENT MIXING...
COUPLED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR
ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT...LOOKING AT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF QPF. THERE ARE STILL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS PERIOD SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN THEY WILL ACTUALLY
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY GIVING US OUR FIRST 60+ DEGREE DAY OF
THE SPRING. TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY...DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS THE LAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

MONDAY...ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE ONCE AGAIN...CREEPING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME W
WINDS GUSTING 20+ AT TIMES ESPECIALLY E MA.

THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ESPECIALLY S OF AN
HFD-IJD-PYM LINE. VFR TO THE N. CONDITIONS IMPROVE DURING EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ANY SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT...AND MAINLY ON GRASS
RATHER THAN RUNWAYS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF...AT ISSUE IS THE CHANCE FOR
A WINDOW OF MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT IN FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING HRS. SW-WINDS
BACKING NW DURING WHICH TIME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THOUGH COULD BE
SOME LINGERING ISSUES FOR RI / BI SOUND.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...
10 PM UPDATE...
HAVE EXTENDED TIMING OF E INTRA-COASTAL WATERS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AS RECENT TREND SUGGESTS STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH THE
FROPA LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WENT THROUGH 12Z FOR
NOW TO ALLOW FOR BETTER ASSESSMENT OF OVERNIGHT MODEL TRENDS.
ALSO...WILL BE ADDING NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BOSTON HARBOR WITH THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS S OF NEW ENGLAND. N/NW FLOW...WHICH WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL BE A LULL IN
WIND AND WAVE ACTION DURING WHICH TIME A RAIN / SNOW MIX WILL BE
AN ISSUE MOSTLY FOR THE S-WATERS WITH POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT.
THEN WAVES INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH ENHANCING N/NW-FLOW.

SMALL-CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE INNER-WATERS EXPIRE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS TWO SEPARATE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND THEIR COLD FRONTS APPROACH THE WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS AT LEAST ON THE
OUTER WATERS...IF NOT ON THE INTERIOR BAYS AND SOUNDS AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...DOODY/RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 310538
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
138 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET NIGHT OF WEATHER PRIOR TO A CLIPPER-LOW SWEEPING SOUTH OF
THE REGION BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SOUTHERN-MOST
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS WEEK THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
MAY SEE A FEW OF THE REMNANT SHRA/SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT STILL JUST TO THE W SPILL INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES AND PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY UNTIL MAINLY ABOUT 1 AM.
AT WHICH POINT DRIER AIR AND THE LACK OF ADDITIONAL SUPPORT SHOULD
BRING MOST OF THESE TO AN END. FORECAST ON TRACK OTHERWISE. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS ARE TO BRING POPS UP TO PEED WITH THIS THINKING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

QUIET WEATHER. SCATTERED RAIN / SNOW SHOWERS CONCLUDE WITH ONLY
REMNANT MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING. BREEZY W-WINDS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND THE LOW-30S...NEAR-
SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DEPENDENCE OF THE FORECAST UPON THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ITS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE REFLECTION IN AREAS OF FAVORABLE BAROCLINICITY / THERMAL
PACKING. THE CLOSER TO THE S NEW ENGLAND SHORELINE...THE GREATER THE
IMPACT. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE NOTING
THE EC / NAM ALONG THE N-END OF THE ENVELOP WITH ALL OTHER FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SWING AND A MISS.

FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS CLIPPER LOW TRACK OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST ALONG A W-E ZONAL-FLOW. OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION APPEARS
LARGELY ABSENT THOUGH W-E SETUP...DISCREET OUTCOMES APPARENT WITH
FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING ALONG THE PARENT WARM FRONT TO THE CLIPPER
LOW AROUND H7-8. IN ADDITION BETTER MOISTURE AND QG-FORCING MAINTAIN
S OF NEW ENGLAND PARENT WITH THE LOW WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE.

SO FEEL THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIGHT MOSTLY S OF THE MASS-PIKE. SUBSEQUENTLY WITH DRY LOW-
LEVELS AT ONSET FEEL WETBULBING / DYNAMIC COOLING OF LOW-LEVELS WILL
BE MINIMAL AGAINST HIGHS THAT ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW- TO
MID-40S WITH DAYTIME HEATING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STORM WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE LATE. YET PROCEEDING INTO A EVENING ALONG WITH AN
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF WINDS THAT WILL FUNNEL OUT OF THE N ABSENT
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...FEEL PRECIP-TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN RAIN /
SNOW FROM WHICH AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
IF ANY...A TRACE AT MOST ON LINGERING SNOWPACK / ELEVATED SURFACES.

GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND ISLANDS.
MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH
SNOW...IF ANYTHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD SCALE WITH SOME EXPECTED
DETAIL DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS/COLD FRONTS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. EXCELLENT MIXING...
COUPLED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR
ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT...LOOKING AT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF QPF. THERE ARE STILL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS PERIOD SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN THEY WILL ACTUALLY
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY GIVING US OUR FIRST 60+ DEGREE DAY OF
THE SPRING. TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY...DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS THE LAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

MONDAY...ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE ONCE AGAIN...CREEPING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME W
WINDS GUSTING 20+ AT TIMES ESPECIALLY E MA.

THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ESPECIALLY S OF AN
HFD-IJD-PYM LINE. VFR TO THE N. CONDITIONS IMPROVE DURING EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ANY SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT...AND MAINLY ON GRASS
RATHER THAN RUNWAYS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF...AT ISSUE IS THE CHANCE FOR
A WINDOW OF MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT IN FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING HRS. SW-WINDS
BACKING NW DURING WHICH TIME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THOUGH COULD BE
SOME LINGERING ISSUES FOR RI / BI SOUND.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...
10 PM UPDATE...
HAVE EXTENDED TIMING OF E INTRA-COASTAL WATERS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AS RECENT TREND SUGGESTS STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH THE
FROPA LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WENT THROUGH 12Z FOR
NOW TO ALLOW FOR BETTER ASSESSMENT OF OVERNIGHT MODEL TRENDS.
ALSO...WILL BE ADDING NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BOSTON HARBOR WITH THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS S OF NEW ENGLAND. N/NW FLOW...WHICH WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL BE A LULL IN
WIND AND WAVE ACTION DURING WHICH TIME A RAIN / SNOW MIX WILL BE
AN ISSUE MOSTLY FOR THE S-WATERS WITH POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT.
THEN WAVES INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH ENHANCING N/NW-FLOW.

SMALL-CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE INNER-WATERS EXPIRE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS TWO SEPARATE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND THEIR COLD FRONTS APPROACH THE WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS AT LEAST ON THE
OUTER WATERS...IF NOT ON THE INTERIOR BAYS AND SOUNDS AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...DOODY/RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 310538
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
138 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET NIGHT OF WEATHER PRIOR TO A CLIPPER-LOW SWEEPING SOUTH OF
THE REGION BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SOUTHERN-MOST
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS WEEK THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
MAY SEE A FEW OF THE REMNANT SHRA/SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT STILL JUST TO THE W SPILL INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES AND PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY UNTIL MAINLY ABOUT 1 AM.
AT WHICH POINT DRIER AIR AND THE LACK OF ADDITIONAL SUPPORT SHOULD
BRING MOST OF THESE TO AN END. FORECAST ON TRACK OTHERWISE. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS ARE TO BRING POPS UP TO PEED WITH THIS THINKING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

QUIET WEATHER. SCATTERED RAIN / SNOW SHOWERS CONCLUDE WITH ONLY
REMNANT MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING. BREEZY W-WINDS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND THE LOW-30S...NEAR-
SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DEPENDENCE OF THE FORECAST UPON THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ITS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE REFLECTION IN AREAS OF FAVORABLE BAROCLINICITY / THERMAL
PACKING. THE CLOSER TO THE S NEW ENGLAND SHORELINE...THE GREATER THE
IMPACT. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE NOTING
THE EC / NAM ALONG THE N-END OF THE ENVELOP WITH ALL OTHER FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SWING AND A MISS.

FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS CLIPPER LOW TRACK OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST ALONG A W-E ZONAL-FLOW. OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION APPEARS
LARGELY ABSENT THOUGH W-E SETUP...DISCREET OUTCOMES APPARENT WITH
FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING ALONG THE PARENT WARM FRONT TO THE CLIPPER
LOW AROUND H7-8. IN ADDITION BETTER MOISTURE AND QG-FORCING MAINTAIN
S OF NEW ENGLAND PARENT WITH THE LOW WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE.

SO FEEL THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIGHT MOSTLY S OF THE MASS-PIKE. SUBSEQUENTLY WITH DRY LOW-
LEVELS AT ONSET FEEL WETBULBING / DYNAMIC COOLING OF LOW-LEVELS WILL
BE MINIMAL AGAINST HIGHS THAT ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW- TO
MID-40S WITH DAYTIME HEATING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STORM WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE LATE. YET PROCEEDING INTO A EVENING ALONG WITH AN
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF WINDS THAT WILL FUNNEL OUT OF THE N ABSENT
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...FEEL PRECIP-TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN RAIN /
SNOW FROM WHICH AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
IF ANY...A TRACE AT MOST ON LINGERING SNOWPACK / ELEVATED SURFACES.

GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND ISLANDS.
MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH
SNOW...IF ANYTHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD SCALE WITH SOME EXPECTED
DETAIL DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS/COLD FRONTS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. EXCELLENT MIXING...
COUPLED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR
ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT...LOOKING AT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF QPF. THERE ARE STILL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS PERIOD SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN THEY WILL ACTUALLY
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY GIVING US OUR FIRST 60+ DEGREE DAY OF
THE SPRING. TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY...DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS THE LAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

MONDAY...ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE ONCE AGAIN...CREEPING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME W
WINDS GUSTING 20+ AT TIMES ESPECIALLY E MA.

THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ESPECIALLY S OF AN
HFD-IJD-PYM LINE. VFR TO THE N. CONDITIONS IMPROVE DURING EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ANY SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT...AND MAINLY ON GRASS
RATHER THAN RUNWAYS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF...AT ISSUE IS THE CHANCE FOR
A WINDOW OF MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT IN FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING HRS. SW-WINDS
BACKING NW DURING WHICH TIME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THOUGH COULD BE
SOME LINGERING ISSUES FOR RI / BI SOUND.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...
10 PM UPDATE...
HAVE EXTENDED TIMING OF E INTRA-COASTAL WATERS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AS RECENT TREND SUGGESTS STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH THE
FROPA LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WENT THROUGH 12Z FOR
NOW TO ALLOW FOR BETTER ASSESSMENT OF OVERNIGHT MODEL TRENDS.
ALSO...WILL BE ADDING NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BOSTON HARBOR WITH THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS S OF NEW ENGLAND. N/NW FLOW...WHICH WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL BE A LULL IN
WIND AND WAVE ACTION DURING WHICH TIME A RAIN / SNOW MIX WILL BE
AN ISSUE MOSTLY FOR THE S-WATERS WITH POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT.
THEN WAVES INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH ENHANCING N/NW-FLOW.

SMALL-CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE INNER-WATERS EXPIRE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS TWO SEPARATE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND THEIR COLD FRONTS APPROACH THE WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS AT LEAST ON THE
OUTER WATERS...IF NOT ON THE INTERIOR BAYS AND SOUNDS AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...DOODY/RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310538
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
138 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET NIGHT OF WEATHER PRIOR TO A CLIPPER-LOW SWEEPING SOUTH OF
THE REGION BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SOUTHERN-MOST
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS WEEK THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
MAY SEE A FEW OF THE REMNANT SHRA/SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT STILL JUST TO THE W SPILL INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES AND PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY UNTIL MAINLY ABOUT 1 AM.
AT WHICH POINT DRIER AIR AND THE LACK OF ADDITIONAL SUPPORT SHOULD
BRING MOST OF THESE TO AN END. FORECAST ON TRACK OTHERWISE. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS ARE TO BRING POPS UP TO PEED WITH THIS THINKING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

QUIET WEATHER. SCATTERED RAIN / SNOW SHOWERS CONCLUDE WITH ONLY
REMNANT MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING. BREEZY W-WINDS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND THE LOW-30S...NEAR-
SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DEPENDENCE OF THE FORECAST UPON THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ITS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE REFLECTION IN AREAS OF FAVORABLE BAROCLINICITY / THERMAL
PACKING. THE CLOSER TO THE S NEW ENGLAND SHORELINE...THE GREATER THE
IMPACT. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE NOTING
THE EC / NAM ALONG THE N-END OF THE ENVELOP WITH ALL OTHER FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SWING AND A MISS.

FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS CLIPPER LOW TRACK OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST ALONG A W-E ZONAL-FLOW. OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION APPEARS
LARGELY ABSENT THOUGH W-E SETUP...DISCREET OUTCOMES APPARENT WITH
FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING ALONG THE PARENT WARM FRONT TO THE CLIPPER
LOW AROUND H7-8. IN ADDITION BETTER MOISTURE AND QG-FORCING MAINTAIN
S OF NEW ENGLAND PARENT WITH THE LOW WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE.

SO FEEL THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIGHT MOSTLY S OF THE MASS-PIKE. SUBSEQUENTLY WITH DRY LOW-
LEVELS AT ONSET FEEL WETBULBING / DYNAMIC COOLING OF LOW-LEVELS WILL
BE MINIMAL AGAINST HIGHS THAT ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW- TO
MID-40S WITH DAYTIME HEATING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STORM WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE LATE. YET PROCEEDING INTO A EVENING ALONG WITH AN
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF WINDS THAT WILL FUNNEL OUT OF THE N ABSENT
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...FEEL PRECIP-TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN RAIN /
SNOW FROM WHICH AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
IF ANY...A TRACE AT MOST ON LINGERING SNOWPACK / ELEVATED SURFACES.

GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND ISLANDS.
MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH
SNOW...IF ANYTHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD SCALE WITH SOME EXPECTED
DETAIL DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS/COLD FRONTS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. EXCELLENT MIXING...
COUPLED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR
ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT...LOOKING AT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF QPF. THERE ARE STILL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS PERIOD SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN THEY WILL ACTUALLY
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY GIVING US OUR FIRST 60+ DEGREE DAY OF
THE SPRING. TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY...DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS THE LAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

MONDAY...ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE ONCE AGAIN...CREEPING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME W
WINDS GUSTING 20+ AT TIMES ESPECIALLY E MA.

THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ESPECIALLY S OF AN
HFD-IJD-PYM LINE. VFR TO THE N. CONDITIONS IMPROVE DURING EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ANY SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT...AND MAINLY ON GRASS
RATHER THAN RUNWAYS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF...AT ISSUE IS THE CHANCE FOR
A WINDOW OF MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT IN FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING HRS. SW-WINDS
BACKING NW DURING WHICH TIME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THOUGH COULD BE
SOME LINGERING ISSUES FOR RI / BI SOUND.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...
10 PM UPDATE...
HAVE EXTENDED TIMING OF E INTRA-COASTAL WATERS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AS RECENT TREND SUGGESTS STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH THE
FROPA LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WENT THROUGH 12Z FOR
NOW TO ALLOW FOR BETTER ASSESSMENT OF OVERNIGHT MODEL TRENDS.
ALSO...WILL BE ADDING NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BOSTON HARBOR WITH THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS S OF NEW ENGLAND. N/NW FLOW...WHICH WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL BE A LULL IN
WIND AND WAVE ACTION DURING WHICH TIME A RAIN / SNOW MIX WILL BE
AN ISSUE MOSTLY FOR THE S-WATERS WITH POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT.
THEN WAVES INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH ENHANCING N/NW-FLOW.

SMALL-CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE INNER-WATERS EXPIRE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS TWO SEPARATE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND THEIR COLD FRONTS APPROACH THE WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS AT LEAST ON THE
OUTER WATERS...IF NOT ON THE INTERIOR BAYS AND SOUNDS AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...DOODY/RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KGYX 310212
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1012 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG IT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...DOWNSLOPING BEHIND THE FRONT HAS CLEARED OUT
CLOUDS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...SO UPDATED SKY COVER
BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO
UPDATED BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...WITH CLEARING SOUTH OF
THE MOUNTAINS...THESE AREAS WILL RADIATE QUITE NICELY SO ADJUSTED
LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

7 PM UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO SKY AND TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS AND SATELLITE DATA. ALSO BOOSTED POP IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1ST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
WILL BE DEPARTING THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST DEVELOPING DURING
THE EVENING HOURS DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT CLOUDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE A
DRY NIGHT BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
THROUGH THE 20S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY TUESDAY SETTING UP A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 30S IN THE NORTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKING MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN
5 AND 10 DEGREES NORTH AND WILL RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEK.

ON WEDNESDAY THE COLDER AIR AND TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA.
AS IT DOES A WEAK STORM WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
BRINING CLOUD COVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. CLEAR
SKIES TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE
AGAIN FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH AND MID 20S SOUTH.

BY THURSDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM ALOFT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AROUND A HIGH SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. FOR NEW
HAMPSHIRE SOUTH OF THE NOTCHES AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY THIS SOUTH
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 50. ALONG THE MAINE
COAST FROM PORTLAND THROUGH PENOBSCOT BAY THAT SAME SOUTH WIND
WILL FLOW OVER THE 37 DEGREE OCEAN, KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW 40
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY WILL SEE MORE WARMING... WITH SOUTHERN NH REACHING 60
DEGREES. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON BRINGING SHOWERS. THAT FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER LOW REDEVELOPS ALONG IT ON
SATURDAY. STILL A BIT OF A SPREAD ON TIMING WITH THE SHOWERS,
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFF SHORE WHICH WOULD KEEP JUST SOUTHERN
SECTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS SEE JUST CLOUDS,
HOWEVER EXACT LOCATION IS A BIT SUSPECT AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THE MOUNTAINS HOLD ONTO THE RAIN A BIT LONGER. NO MATTER
THE TIMING, THE RESULT IS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH WARM TEMPS FRIDAY... IT WILL FALL AS
RAIN FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHEST SUMMITS. BUT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
FURTHER THROUGH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON COLD AIR WILL SWITCH THE
PRECIP OVER TO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SUNDAY WILL
SEE COLDER HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...00Z UPDATE...COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AND ALL AREAS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR OTHER THAN HIE WHERE
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY EARLY THIS
EVENING... IMPROVING TO VFR. VFR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM... CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR ON THURSDAY
NIGHT... WITH LIFR IN FOG POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL SITES. WILL SEE A
MIX OF MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO
VFR LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SCA POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KISTNER
AVIATION...KISTNER



000
FXUS61 KGYX 310212
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1012 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG IT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...DOWNSLOPING BEHIND THE FRONT HAS CLEARED OUT
CLOUDS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...SO UPDATED SKY COVER
BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO
UPDATED BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...WITH CLEARING SOUTH OF
THE MOUNTAINS...THESE AREAS WILL RADIATE QUITE NICELY SO ADJUSTED
LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

7 PM UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO SKY AND TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS AND SATELLITE DATA. ALSO BOOSTED POP IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1ST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
WILL BE DEPARTING THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST DEVELOPING DURING
THE EVENING HOURS DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT CLOUDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE A
DRY NIGHT BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
THROUGH THE 20S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY TUESDAY SETTING UP A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 30S IN THE NORTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKING MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN
5 AND 10 DEGREES NORTH AND WILL RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEK.

ON WEDNESDAY THE COLDER AIR AND TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA.
AS IT DOES A WEAK STORM WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
BRINING CLOUD COVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. CLEAR
SKIES TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE
AGAIN FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH AND MID 20S SOUTH.

BY THURSDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM ALOFT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AROUND A HIGH SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. FOR NEW
HAMPSHIRE SOUTH OF THE NOTCHES AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY THIS SOUTH
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 50. ALONG THE MAINE
COAST FROM PORTLAND THROUGH PENOBSCOT BAY THAT SAME SOUTH WIND
WILL FLOW OVER THE 37 DEGREE OCEAN, KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW 40
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY WILL SEE MORE WARMING... WITH SOUTHERN NH REACHING 60
DEGREES. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON BRINGING SHOWERS. THAT FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER LOW REDEVELOPS ALONG IT ON
SATURDAY. STILL A BIT OF A SPREAD ON TIMING WITH THE SHOWERS,
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFF SHORE WHICH WOULD KEEP JUST SOUTHERN
SECTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS SEE JUST CLOUDS,
HOWEVER EXACT LOCATION IS A BIT SUSPECT AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THE MOUNTAINS HOLD ONTO THE RAIN A BIT LONGER. NO MATTER
THE TIMING, THE RESULT IS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH WARM TEMPS FRIDAY... IT WILL FALL AS
RAIN FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHEST SUMMITS. BUT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
FURTHER THROUGH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON COLD AIR WILL SWITCH THE
PRECIP OVER TO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SUNDAY WILL
SEE COLDER HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...00Z UPDATE...COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AND ALL AREAS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR OTHER THAN HIE WHERE
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY EARLY THIS
EVENING... IMPROVING TO VFR. VFR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM... CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR ON THURSDAY
NIGHT... WITH LIFR IN FOG POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL SITES. WILL SEE A
MIX OF MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO
VFR LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SCA POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KISTNER
AVIATION...KISTNER



000
FXUS61 KGYX 310212
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1012 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG IT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...DOWNSLOPING BEHIND THE FRONT HAS CLEARED OUT
CLOUDS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...SO UPDATED SKY COVER
BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO
UPDATED BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...WITH CLEARING SOUTH OF
THE MOUNTAINS...THESE AREAS WILL RADIATE QUITE NICELY SO ADJUSTED
LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

7 PM UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO SKY AND TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS AND SATELLITE DATA. ALSO BOOSTED POP IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1ST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
WILL BE DEPARTING THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST DEVELOPING DURING
THE EVENING HOURS DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT CLOUDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE A
DRY NIGHT BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
THROUGH THE 20S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY TUESDAY SETTING UP A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 30S IN THE NORTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKING MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN
5 AND 10 DEGREES NORTH AND WILL RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEK.

ON WEDNESDAY THE COLDER AIR AND TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA.
AS IT DOES A WEAK STORM WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
BRINING CLOUD COVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. CLEAR
SKIES TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE
AGAIN FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH AND MID 20S SOUTH.

BY THURSDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM ALOFT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AROUND A HIGH SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. FOR NEW
HAMPSHIRE SOUTH OF THE NOTCHES AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY THIS SOUTH
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 50. ALONG THE MAINE
COAST FROM PORTLAND THROUGH PENOBSCOT BAY THAT SAME SOUTH WIND
WILL FLOW OVER THE 37 DEGREE OCEAN, KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW 40
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY WILL SEE MORE WARMING... WITH SOUTHERN NH REACHING 60
DEGREES. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON BRINGING SHOWERS. THAT FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER LOW REDEVELOPS ALONG IT ON
SATURDAY. STILL A BIT OF A SPREAD ON TIMING WITH THE SHOWERS,
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFF SHORE WHICH WOULD KEEP JUST SOUTHERN
SECTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS SEE JUST CLOUDS,
HOWEVER EXACT LOCATION IS A BIT SUSPECT AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THE MOUNTAINS HOLD ONTO THE RAIN A BIT LONGER. NO MATTER
THE TIMING, THE RESULT IS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH WARM TEMPS FRIDAY... IT WILL FALL AS
RAIN FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHEST SUMMITS. BUT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
FURTHER THROUGH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON COLD AIR WILL SWITCH THE
PRECIP OVER TO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SUNDAY WILL
SEE COLDER HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...00Z UPDATE...COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AND ALL AREAS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR OTHER THAN HIE WHERE
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY EARLY THIS
EVENING... IMPROVING TO VFR. VFR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM... CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR ON THURSDAY
NIGHT... WITH LIFR IN FOG POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL SITES. WILL SEE A
MIX OF MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO
VFR LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SCA POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KISTNER
AVIATION...KISTNER



000
FXUS61 KGYX 310212
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1012 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG IT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...DOWNSLOPING BEHIND THE FRONT HAS CLEARED OUT
CLOUDS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...SO UPDATED SKY COVER
BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO
UPDATED BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...WITH CLEARING SOUTH OF
THE MOUNTAINS...THESE AREAS WILL RADIATE QUITE NICELY SO ADJUSTED
LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

7 PM UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO SKY AND TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS AND SATELLITE DATA. ALSO BOOSTED POP IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1ST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
WILL BE DEPARTING THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST DEVELOPING DURING
THE EVENING HOURS DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT CLOUDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE A
DRY NIGHT BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
THROUGH THE 20S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY TUESDAY SETTING UP A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 30S IN THE NORTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKING MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN
5 AND 10 DEGREES NORTH AND WILL RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEK.

ON WEDNESDAY THE COLDER AIR AND TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA.
AS IT DOES A WEAK STORM WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
BRINING CLOUD COVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. CLEAR
SKIES TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE
AGAIN FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH AND MID 20S SOUTH.

BY THURSDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM ALOFT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AROUND A HIGH SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. FOR NEW
HAMPSHIRE SOUTH OF THE NOTCHES AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY THIS SOUTH
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 50. ALONG THE MAINE
COAST FROM PORTLAND THROUGH PENOBSCOT BAY THAT SAME SOUTH WIND
WILL FLOW OVER THE 37 DEGREE OCEAN, KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW 40
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY WILL SEE MORE WARMING... WITH SOUTHERN NH REACHING 60
DEGREES. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON BRINGING SHOWERS. THAT FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER LOW REDEVELOPS ALONG IT ON
SATURDAY. STILL A BIT OF A SPREAD ON TIMING WITH THE SHOWERS,
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFF SHORE WHICH WOULD KEEP JUST SOUTHERN
SECTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS SEE JUST CLOUDS,
HOWEVER EXACT LOCATION IS A BIT SUSPECT AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THE MOUNTAINS HOLD ONTO THE RAIN A BIT LONGER. NO MATTER
THE TIMING, THE RESULT IS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH WARM TEMPS FRIDAY... IT WILL FALL AS
RAIN FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHEST SUMMITS. BUT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
FURTHER THROUGH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON COLD AIR WILL SWITCH THE
PRECIP OVER TO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SUNDAY WILL
SEE COLDER HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...00Z UPDATE...COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AND ALL AREAS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR OTHER THAN HIE WHERE
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY EARLY THIS
EVENING... IMPROVING TO VFR. VFR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM... CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR ON THURSDAY
NIGHT... WITH LIFR IN FOG POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL SITES. WILL SEE A
MIX OF MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO
VFR LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SCA POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KISTNER
AVIATION...KISTNER



000
FXUS61 KGYX 310212
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1012 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG IT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...DOWNSLOPING BEHIND THE FRONT HAS CLEARED OUT
CLOUDS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...SO UPDATED SKY COVER
BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO
UPDATED BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...WITH CLEARING SOUTH OF
THE MOUNTAINS...THESE AREAS WILL RADIATE QUITE NICELY SO ADJUSTED
LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

7 PM UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO SKY AND TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS AND SATELLITE DATA. ALSO BOOSTED POP IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1ST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
WILL BE DEPARTING THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST DEVELOPING DURING
THE EVENING HOURS DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT CLOUDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE A
DRY NIGHT BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
THROUGH THE 20S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY TUESDAY SETTING UP A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 30S IN THE NORTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKING MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN
5 AND 10 DEGREES NORTH AND WILL RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEK.

ON WEDNESDAY THE COLDER AIR AND TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA.
AS IT DOES A WEAK STORM WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
BRINING CLOUD COVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. CLEAR
SKIES TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE
AGAIN FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH AND MID 20S SOUTH.

BY THURSDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM ALOFT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AROUND A HIGH SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. FOR NEW
HAMPSHIRE SOUTH OF THE NOTCHES AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY THIS SOUTH
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 50. ALONG THE MAINE
COAST FROM PORTLAND THROUGH PENOBSCOT BAY THAT SAME SOUTH WIND
WILL FLOW OVER THE 37 DEGREE OCEAN, KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW 40
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY WILL SEE MORE WARMING... WITH SOUTHERN NH REACHING 60
DEGREES. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON BRINGING SHOWERS. THAT FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER LOW REDEVELOPS ALONG IT ON
SATURDAY. STILL A BIT OF A SPREAD ON TIMING WITH THE SHOWERS,
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFF SHORE WHICH WOULD KEEP JUST SOUTHERN
SECTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS SEE JUST CLOUDS,
HOWEVER EXACT LOCATION IS A BIT SUSPECT AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THE MOUNTAINS HOLD ONTO THE RAIN A BIT LONGER. NO MATTER
THE TIMING, THE RESULT IS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH WARM TEMPS FRIDAY... IT WILL FALL AS
RAIN FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHEST SUMMITS. BUT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
FURTHER THROUGH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON COLD AIR WILL SWITCH THE
PRECIP OVER TO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SUNDAY WILL
SEE COLDER HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...00Z UPDATE...COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AND ALL AREAS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR OTHER THAN HIE WHERE
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY EARLY THIS
EVENING... IMPROVING TO VFR. VFR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM... CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR ON THURSDAY
NIGHT... WITH LIFR IN FOG POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL SITES. WILL SEE A
MIX OF MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO
VFR LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SCA POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KISTNER
AVIATION...KISTNER



000
FXUS61 KGYX 310212
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1012 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG IT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...DOWNSLOPING BEHIND THE FRONT HAS CLEARED OUT
CLOUDS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...SO UPDATED SKY COVER
BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO
UPDATED BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...WITH CLEARING SOUTH OF
THE MOUNTAINS...THESE AREAS WILL RADIATE QUITE NICELY SO ADJUSTED
LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

7 PM UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO SKY AND TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS AND SATELLITE DATA. ALSO BOOSTED POP IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1ST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
WILL BE DEPARTING THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST DEVELOPING DURING
THE EVENING HOURS DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT CLOUDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE A
DRY NIGHT BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
THROUGH THE 20S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY TUESDAY SETTING UP A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 30S IN THE NORTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKING MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN
5 AND 10 DEGREES NORTH AND WILL RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEK.

ON WEDNESDAY THE COLDER AIR AND TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA.
AS IT DOES A WEAK STORM WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
BRINING CLOUD COVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. CLEAR
SKIES TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE
AGAIN FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH AND MID 20S SOUTH.

BY THURSDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM ALOFT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AROUND A HIGH SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. FOR NEW
HAMPSHIRE SOUTH OF THE NOTCHES AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY THIS SOUTH
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 50. ALONG THE MAINE
COAST FROM PORTLAND THROUGH PENOBSCOT BAY THAT SAME SOUTH WIND
WILL FLOW OVER THE 37 DEGREE OCEAN, KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW 40
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY WILL SEE MORE WARMING... WITH SOUTHERN NH REACHING 60
DEGREES. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON BRINGING SHOWERS. THAT FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER LOW REDEVELOPS ALONG IT ON
SATURDAY. STILL A BIT OF A SPREAD ON TIMING WITH THE SHOWERS,
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFF SHORE WHICH WOULD KEEP JUST SOUTHERN
SECTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS SEE JUST CLOUDS,
HOWEVER EXACT LOCATION IS A BIT SUSPECT AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THE MOUNTAINS HOLD ONTO THE RAIN A BIT LONGER. NO MATTER
THE TIMING, THE RESULT IS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH WARM TEMPS FRIDAY... IT WILL FALL AS
RAIN FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHEST SUMMITS. BUT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
FURTHER THROUGH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON COLD AIR WILL SWITCH THE
PRECIP OVER TO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SUNDAY WILL
SEE COLDER HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...00Z UPDATE...COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AND ALL AREAS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR OTHER THAN HIE WHERE
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY EARLY THIS
EVENING... IMPROVING TO VFR. VFR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM... CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR ON THURSDAY
NIGHT... WITH LIFR IN FOG POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL SITES. WILL SEE A
MIX OF MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO
VFR LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SCA POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KISTNER
AVIATION...KISTNER




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310159
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET NIGHT OF WEATHER PRIOR TO A CLIPPER-LOW SWEEPING SOUTH OF
THE REGION BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SOUTHERN-MOST
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS WEEK THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
MAY SEE A FEW OF THE REMNANT SHRA/SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT STILL JUST TO THE W SPILL INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES AND PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY UNTIL MAINLY ABOUT 1 AM.
AT WHICH POINT DRIER AIR AND THE LACK OF ADDITIONAL SUPPORT SHOULD
BRING MOST OF THESE TO AN END. FORECAST ON TRACK OTHERWISE. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS ARE TO BRING POPS UP TO PEED WITH THIS THINKING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

QUIET WEATHER. SCATTERED RAIN / SNOW SHOWERS CONCLUDE WITH ONLY
REMNANT MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING. BREEZY W-WINDS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND THE LOW-30S...NEAR-
SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DEPENDENCE OF THE FORECAST UPON THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ITS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE REFLECTION IN AREAS OF FAVORABLE BAROCLINICITY / THERMAL
PACKING. THE CLOSER TO THE S NEW ENGLAND SHORELINE...THE GREATER THE
IMPACT. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE NOTING
THE EC / NAM ALONG THE N-END OF THE ENVELOP WITH ALL OTHER FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SWING AND A MISS.

FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS CLIPPER LOW TRACK OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST ALONG A W-E ZONAL-FLOW. OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION APPEARS
LARGELY ABSENT THOUGH W-E SETUP...DISCREET OUTCOMES APPARENT WITH
FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING ALONG THE PARENT WARM FRONT TO THE CLIPPER
LOW AROUND H7-8. IN ADDITION BETTER MOISTURE AND QG-FORCING MAINTAIN
S OF NEW ENGLAND PARENT WITH THE LOW WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE.

SO FEEL THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIGHT MOSTLY S OF THE MASS-PIKE. SUBSEQUENTLY WITH DRY LOW-
LEVELS AT ONSET FEEL WETBULBING / DYNAMIC COOLING OF LOW-LEVELS WILL
BE MINIMAL AGAINST HIGHS THAT ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW- TO
MID-40S WITH DAYTIME HEATING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STORM WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE LATE. YET PROCEEDING INTO A EVENING ALONG WITH AN
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF WINDS THAT WILL FUNNEL OUT OF THE N ABSENT
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...FEEL PRECIP-TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN RAIN /
SNOW FROM WHICH AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
IF ANY...A TRACE AT MOST ON LINGERING SNOWPACK / ELEVATED SURFACES.

GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND ISLANDS.
MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH
SNOW...IF ANYTHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD SCALE WITH SOME EXPECTED
DETAIL DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS/COLD FRONTS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. EXCELLENT MIXING...
COUPLED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR
ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT...LOOKING AT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF QPF. THERE ARE STILL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS PERIOD SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN THEY WILL ACTUALLY
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY GIVING US OUR FIRST 60+ DEGREE DAY OF
THE SPRING. TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY...DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS THE LAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

MONDAY...ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE ONCE AGAIN...CREEPING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

LINGERING SCT -SHRA/-SHSN CONCLUDING TOWARDS 02Z. VFR. COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND
WHICH WINDS VEER W/NW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SWEEPING S OF NEW ENGLAND. LOWEST CONDITIONS ACROSS S-MOST
NEW ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL IFR WITH -SN. OTHERWISE LOW-END VFR /
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MOSTLY S OF THE CT-RI-MA BORDER. N/NW WINDS
INCREASING LATE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

KBOS TAF...GUSTY W-WINDS OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TAF...QUIET WEATHER PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT IN FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING HRS. SW-WINDS
BACKING NW DURING WHICH TIME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THOUGH COULD BE
SOME LINGERING ISSUES FOR RI / BI SOUND.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...
10 PM UPDATE...
HAVE EXTENDED TIMING OF E INTRA-COASTAL WATERS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AS RECENT TREND SUGGESTS STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH THE
FROPA LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WENT THROUGH 12Z FOR
NOW TO ALLOW FOR BETTER ASSESSMENT OF OVERNIGHT MODEL TRENDS.
ALSO...WILL BE ADDING NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BOSTON HARBOR WITH THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS S OF NEW ENGLAND. N/NW FLOW...WHICH WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL BE A LULL IN
WIND AND WAVE ACTION DURING WHICH TIME A RAIN / SNOW MIX WILL BE
AN ISSUE MOSTLY FOR THE S-WATERS WITH POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT.
THEN WAVES INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH ENHANCING N/NW-FLOW.

SMALL-CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE INNER-WATERS EXPIRE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS TWO SEPARATE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND THEIR COLD FRONTS APPROACH THE WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS AT LEAST ON THE
OUTER WATERS...IF NOT ON THE INTERIOR BAYS AND SOUNDS AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310159
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET NIGHT OF WEATHER PRIOR TO A CLIPPER-LOW SWEEPING SOUTH OF
THE REGION BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SOUTHERN-MOST
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS WEEK THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
MAY SEE A FEW OF THE REMNANT SHRA/SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT STILL JUST TO THE W SPILL INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES AND PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY UNTIL MAINLY ABOUT 1 AM.
AT WHICH POINT DRIER AIR AND THE LACK OF ADDITIONAL SUPPORT SHOULD
BRING MOST OF THESE TO AN END. FORECAST ON TRACK OTHERWISE. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS ARE TO BRING POPS UP TO PEED WITH THIS THINKING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

QUIET WEATHER. SCATTERED RAIN / SNOW SHOWERS CONCLUDE WITH ONLY
REMNANT MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING. BREEZY W-WINDS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND THE LOW-30S...NEAR-
SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DEPENDENCE OF THE FORECAST UPON THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ITS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE REFLECTION IN AREAS OF FAVORABLE BAROCLINICITY / THERMAL
PACKING. THE CLOSER TO THE S NEW ENGLAND SHORELINE...THE GREATER THE
IMPACT. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE NOTING
THE EC / NAM ALONG THE N-END OF THE ENVELOP WITH ALL OTHER FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SWING AND A MISS.

FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS CLIPPER LOW TRACK OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST ALONG A W-E ZONAL-FLOW. OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION APPEARS
LARGELY ABSENT THOUGH W-E SETUP...DISCREET OUTCOMES APPARENT WITH
FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING ALONG THE PARENT WARM FRONT TO THE CLIPPER
LOW AROUND H7-8. IN ADDITION BETTER MOISTURE AND QG-FORCING MAINTAIN
S OF NEW ENGLAND PARENT WITH THE LOW WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE.

SO FEEL THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIGHT MOSTLY S OF THE MASS-PIKE. SUBSEQUENTLY WITH DRY LOW-
LEVELS AT ONSET FEEL WETBULBING / DYNAMIC COOLING OF LOW-LEVELS WILL
BE MINIMAL AGAINST HIGHS THAT ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW- TO
MID-40S WITH DAYTIME HEATING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STORM WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE LATE. YET PROCEEDING INTO A EVENING ALONG WITH AN
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF WINDS THAT WILL FUNNEL OUT OF THE N ABSENT
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...FEEL PRECIP-TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN RAIN /
SNOW FROM WHICH AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
IF ANY...A TRACE AT MOST ON LINGERING SNOWPACK / ELEVATED SURFACES.

GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND ISLANDS.
MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH
SNOW...IF ANYTHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD SCALE WITH SOME EXPECTED
DETAIL DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS/COLD FRONTS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. EXCELLENT MIXING...
COUPLED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR
ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT...LOOKING AT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF QPF. THERE ARE STILL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS PERIOD SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN THEY WILL ACTUALLY
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY GIVING US OUR FIRST 60+ DEGREE DAY OF
THE SPRING. TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY...DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS THE LAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

MONDAY...ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE ONCE AGAIN...CREEPING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

LINGERING SCT -SHRA/-SHSN CONCLUDING TOWARDS 02Z. VFR. COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND
WHICH WINDS VEER W/NW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SWEEPING S OF NEW ENGLAND. LOWEST CONDITIONS ACROSS S-MOST
NEW ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL IFR WITH -SN. OTHERWISE LOW-END VFR /
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MOSTLY S OF THE CT-RI-MA BORDER. N/NW WINDS
INCREASING LATE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

KBOS TAF...GUSTY W-WINDS OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TAF...QUIET WEATHER PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT IN FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING HRS. SW-WINDS
BACKING NW DURING WHICH TIME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THOUGH COULD BE
SOME LINGERING ISSUES FOR RI / BI SOUND.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...
10 PM UPDATE...
HAVE EXTENDED TIMING OF E INTRA-COASTAL WATERS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AS RECENT TREND SUGGESTS STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH THE
FROPA LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WENT THROUGH 12Z FOR
NOW TO ALLOW FOR BETTER ASSESSMENT OF OVERNIGHT MODEL TRENDS.
ALSO...WILL BE ADDING NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BOSTON HARBOR WITH THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS S OF NEW ENGLAND. N/NW FLOW...WHICH WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL BE A LULL IN
WIND AND WAVE ACTION DURING WHICH TIME A RAIN / SNOW MIX WILL BE
AN ISSUE MOSTLY FOR THE S-WATERS WITH POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT.
THEN WAVES INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH ENHANCING N/NW-FLOW.

SMALL-CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE INNER-WATERS EXPIRE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS TWO SEPARATE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND THEIR COLD FRONTS APPROACH THE WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS AT LEAST ON THE
OUTER WATERS...IF NOT ON THE INTERIOR BAYS AND SOUNDS AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310159
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET NIGHT OF WEATHER PRIOR TO A CLIPPER-LOW SWEEPING SOUTH OF
THE REGION BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SOUTHERN-MOST
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS WEEK THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
MAY SEE A FEW OF THE REMNANT SHRA/SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT STILL JUST TO THE W SPILL INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES AND PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY UNTIL MAINLY ABOUT 1 AM.
AT WHICH POINT DRIER AIR AND THE LACK OF ADDITIONAL SUPPORT SHOULD
BRING MOST OF THESE TO AN END. FORECAST ON TRACK OTHERWISE. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS ARE TO BRING POPS UP TO PEED WITH THIS THINKING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

QUIET WEATHER. SCATTERED RAIN / SNOW SHOWERS CONCLUDE WITH ONLY
REMNANT MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING. BREEZY W-WINDS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND THE LOW-30S...NEAR-
SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DEPENDENCE OF THE FORECAST UPON THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ITS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE REFLECTION IN AREAS OF FAVORABLE BAROCLINICITY / THERMAL
PACKING. THE CLOSER TO THE S NEW ENGLAND SHORELINE...THE GREATER THE
IMPACT. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE NOTING
THE EC / NAM ALONG THE N-END OF THE ENVELOP WITH ALL OTHER FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SWING AND A MISS.

FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS CLIPPER LOW TRACK OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST ALONG A W-E ZONAL-FLOW. OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION APPEARS
LARGELY ABSENT THOUGH W-E SETUP...DISCREET OUTCOMES APPARENT WITH
FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING ALONG THE PARENT WARM FRONT TO THE CLIPPER
LOW AROUND H7-8. IN ADDITION BETTER MOISTURE AND QG-FORCING MAINTAIN
S OF NEW ENGLAND PARENT WITH THE LOW WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE.

SO FEEL THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIGHT MOSTLY S OF THE MASS-PIKE. SUBSEQUENTLY WITH DRY LOW-
LEVELS AT ONSET FEEL WETBULBING / DYNAMIC COOLING OF LOW-LEVELS WILL
BE MINIMAL AGAINST HIGHS THAT ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW- TO
MID-40S WITH DAYTIME HEATING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STORM WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE LATE. YET PROCEEDING INTO A EVENING ALONG WITH AN
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF WINDS THAT WILL FUNNEL OUT OF THE N ABSENT
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...FEEL PRECIP-TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN RAIN /
SNOW FROM WHICH AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
IF ANY...A TRACE AT MOST ON LINGERING SNOWPACK / ELEVATED SURFACES.

GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND ISLANDS.
MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH
SNOW...IF ANYTHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD SCALE WITH SOME EXPECTED
DETAIL DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS/COLD FRONTS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. EXCELLENT MIXING...
COUPLED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR
ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT...LOOKING AT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF QPF. THERE ARE STILL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS PERIOD SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN THEY WILL ACTUALLY
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY GIVING US OUR FIRST 60+ DEGREE DAY OF
THE SPRING. TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY...DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS THE LAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

MONDAY...ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE ONCE AGAIN...CREEPING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

LINGERING SCT -SHRA/-SHSN CONCLUDING TOWARDS 02Z. VFR. COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND
WHICH WINDS VEER W/NW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SWEEPING S OF NEW ENGLAND. LOWEST CONDITIONS ACROSS S-MOST
NEW ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL IFR WITH -SN. OTHERWISE LOW-END VFR /
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MOSTLY S OF THE CT-RI-MA BORDER. N/NW WINDS
INCREASING LATE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

KBOS TAF...GUSTY W-WINDS OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TAF...QUIET WEATHER PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT IN FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING HRS. SW-WINDS
BACKING NW DURING WHICH TIME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THOUGH COULD BE
SOME LINGERING ISSUES FOR RI / BI SOUND.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...
10 PM UPDATE...
HAVE EXTENDED TIMING OF E INTRA-COASTAL WATERS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AS RECENT TREND SUGGESTS STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH THE
FROPA LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WENT THROUGH 12Z FOR
NOW TO ALLOW FOR BETTER ASSESSMENT OF OVERNIGHT MODEL TRENDS.
ALSO...WILL BE ADDING NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BOSTON HARBOR WITH THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS S OF NEW ENGLAND. N/NW FLOW...WHICH WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL BE A LULL IN
WIND AND WAVE ACTION DURING WHICH TIME A RAIN / SNOW MIX WILL BE
AN ISSUE MOSTLY FOR THE S-WATERS WITH POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT.
THEN WAVES INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH ENHANCING N/NW-FLOW.

SMALL-CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE INNER-WATERS EXPIRE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS TWO SEPARATE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND THEIR COLD FRONTS APPROACH THE WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS AT LEAST ON THE
OUTER WATERS...IF NOT ON THE INTERIOR BAYS AND SOUNDS AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 310159
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET NIGHT OF WEATHER PRIOR TO A CLIPPER-LOW SWEEPING SOUTH OF
THE REGION BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SOUTHERN-MOST
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS WEEK THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
MAY SEE A FEW OF THE REMNANT SHRA/SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT STILL JUST TO THE W SPILL INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES AND PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY UNTIL MAINLY ABOUT 1 AM.
AT WHICH POINT DRIER AIR AND THE LACK OF ADDITIONAL SUPPORT SHOULD
BRING MOST OF THESE TO AN END. FORECAST ON TRACK OTHERWISE. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS ARE TO BRING POPS UP TO PEED WITH THIS THINKING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

QUIET WEATHER. SCATTERED RAIN / SNOW SHOWERS CONCLUDE WITH ONLY
REMNANT MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING. BREEZY W-WINDS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND THE LOW-30S...NEAR-
SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DEPENDENCE OF THE FORECAST UPON THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ITS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE REFLECTION IN AREAS OF FAVORABLE BAROCLINICITY / THERMAL
PACKING. THE CLOSER TO THE S NEW ENGLAND SHORELINE...THE GREATER THE
IMPACT. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE NOTING
THE EC / NAM ALONG THE N-END OF THE ENVELOP WITH ALL OTHER FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SWING AND A MISS.

FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS CLIPPER LOW TRACK OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST ALONG A W-E ZONAL-FLOW. OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION APPEARS
LARGELY ABSENT THOUGH W-E SETUP...DISCREET OUTCOMES APPARENT WITH
FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING ALONG THE PARENT WARM FRONT TO THE CLIPPER
LOW AROUND H7-8. IN ADDITION BETTER MOISTURE AND QG-FORCING MAINTAIN
S OF NEW ENGLAND PARENT WITH THE LOW WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE.

SO FEEL THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIGHT MOSTLY S OF THE MASS-PIKE. SUBSEQUENTLY WITH DRY LOW-
LEVELS AT ONSET FEEL WETBULBING / DYNAMIC COOLING OF LOW-LEVELS WILL
BE MINIMAL AGAINST HIGHS THAT ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW- TO
MID-40S WITH DAYTIME HEATING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STORM WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE LATE. YET PROCEEDING INTO A EVENING ALONG WITH AN
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF WINDS THAT WILL FUNNEL OUT OF THE N ABSENT
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...FEEL PRECIP-TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN RAIN /
SNOW FROM WHICH AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
IF ANY...A TRACE AT MOST ON LINGERING SNOWPACK / ELEVATED SURFACES.

GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND ISLANDS.
MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH
SNOW...IF ANYTHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD SCALE WITH SOME EXPECTED
DETAIL DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS/COLD FRONTS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. EXCELLENT MIXING...
COUPLED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR
ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT...LOOKING AT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF QPF. THERE ARE STILL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS PERIOD SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN THEY WILL ACTUALLY
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY GIVING US OUR FIRST 60+ DEGREE DAY OF
THE SPRING. TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY...DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS THE LAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

MONDAY...ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE ONCE AGAIN...CREEPING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

LINGERING SCT -SHRA/-SHSN CONCLUDING TOWARDS 02Z. VFR. COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND
WHICH WINDS VEER W/NW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SWEEPING S OF NEW ENGLAND. LOWEST CONDITIONS ACROSS S-MOST
NEW ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL IFR WITH -SN. OTHERWISE LOW-END VFR /
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MOSTLY S OF THE CT-RI-MA BORDER. N/NW WINDS
INCREASING LATE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

KBOS TAF...GUSTY W-WINDS OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TAF...QUIET WEATHER PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT IN FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING HRS. SW-WINDS
BACKING NW DURING WHICH TIME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THOUGH COULD BE
SOME LINGERING ISSUES FOR RI / BI SOUND.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...
10 PM UPDATE...
HAVE EXTENDED TIMING OF E INTRA-COASTAL WATERS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AS RECENT TREND SUGGESTS STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH THE
FROPA LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WENT THROUGH 12Z FOR
NOW TO ALLOW FOR BETTER ASSESSMENT OF OVERNIGHT MODEL TRENDS.
ALSO...WILL BE ADDING NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BOSTON HARBOR WITH THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS S OF NEW ENGLAND. N/NW FLOW...WHICH WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL BE A LULL IN
WIND AND WAVE ACTION DURING WHICH TIME A RAIN / SNOW MIX WILL BE
AN ISSUE MOSTLY FOR THE S-WATERS WITH POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT.
THEN WAVES INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH ENHANCING N/NW-FLOW.

SMALL-CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE INNER-WATERS EXPIRE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS TWO SEPARATE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND THEIR COLD FRONTS APPROACH THE WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS AT LEAST ON THE
OUTER WATERS...IF NOT ON THE INTERIOR BAYS AND SOUNDS AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 302304
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
704 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET NIGHT OF WEATHER PRIOR TO A CLIPPER-LOW SWEEPING SOUTH OF
THE REGION BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SOUTHERN-MOST
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS WEEK THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN JUST A FEW MINUTES OF PRECIP
THEN COMING TO AN END. HAVE DECREASED POPS AS THESE SHOWERS ARE
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

QUIET WEATHER. SCATTERED RAIN / SNOW SHOWERS CONCLUDE WITH ONLY
REMNANT MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING. BREEZY W-WINDS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND THE LOW-30S...NEAR-
SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DEPENDENCE OF THE FORECAST UPON THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ITS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE REFLECTION IN AREAS OF FAVORABLE BAROCLINICITY / THERMAL
PACKING. THE CLOSER TO THE S NEW ENGLAND SHORELINE...THE GREATER THE
IMPACT. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE NOTING
THE EC / NAM ALONG THE N-END OF THE ENVELOP WITH ALL OTHER FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SWING AND A MISS.

FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS CLIPPER LOW TRACK OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST ALONG A W-E ZONAL-FLOW. OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION APPEARS
LARGELY ABSENT THOUGH W-E SETUP...DISCREET OUTCOMES APPARENT WITH
FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING ALONG THE PARENT WARM FRONT TO THE CLIPPER
LOW AROUND H7-8. IN ADDITION BETTER MOISTURE AND QG-FORCING MAINTAIN
S OF NEW ENGLAND PARENT WITH THE LOW WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE.

SO FEEL THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIGHT MOSTLY S OF THE MASS-PIKE. SUBSEQUENTLY WITH DRY LOW-
LEVELS AT ONSET FEEL WETBULBING / DYNAMIC COOLING OF LOW-LEVELS WILL
BE MINIMAL AGAINST HIGHS THAT ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW- TO
MID-40S WITH DAYTIME HEATING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STORM WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE LATE. YET PROCEEDING INTO A EVENING ALONG WITH AN
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF WINDS THAT WILL FUNNEL OUT OF THE N ABSENT
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...FEEL PRECIP-TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN RAIN /
SNOW FROM WHICH AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
IF ANY...A TRACE AT MOST ON LINGERING SNOWPACK / ELEVATED SURFACES.

GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND ISLANDS.
MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH
SNOW...IF ANYTHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD SCALE WITH SOME EXPECTED
DETAIL DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS/COLD FRONTS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. EXCELLENT MIXING...
COUPLED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR
ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT...LOOKING AT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF QPF. THERE ARE STILL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS PERIOD SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN THEY WILL ACTUALLY
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY GIVING US OUR FIRST 60+ DEGREE DAY OF
THE SPRING. TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY...DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS THE LAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

MONDAY...ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE ONCE AGAIN...CREEPING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

LINGERING SCT -SHRA/-SHSN CONCLUDING TOWARDS 02Z. VFR. COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND
WHICH WINDS VEER W/NW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SWEEPING S OF NEW ENGLAND. LOWEST CONDITIONS ACROSS S-MOST
NEW ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL IFR WITH -SN. OTHERWISE LOW-END VFR /
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MOSTLY S OF THE CT-RI-MA BORDER. N/NW WINDS
INCREASING LATE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

KBOS TAF...GUSTY W-WINDS OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TAF...QUIET WEATHER PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT IN FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING HRS. SW-WINDS
BACKING NW DURING WHICH TIME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THOUGH COULD BE
SOME LINGERING ISSUES FOR RI / BI SOUND.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS S OF NEW ENGLAND. N/NW FLOW...WHICH WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL BE A LULL IN
WIND AND WAVE ACTION DURING WHICH TIME A RAIN / SNOW MIX WILL BE
AN ISSUE MOSTLY FOR THE S-WATERS WITH POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT.
THEN WAVES INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH ENHANCING N/NW-FLOW.

SMALL-CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE INNER-WATERS EXPIRE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS TWO SEPARATE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND THEIR COLD FRONTS APPROACH THE WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS AT LEAST ON THE
OUTER WATERS...IF NOT ON THE INTERIOR BAYS AND SOUNDS AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ233-234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 302304
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
704 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET NIGHT OF WEATHER PRIOR TO A CLIPPER-LOW SWEEPING SOUTH OF
THE REGION BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SOUTHERN-MOST
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS WEEK THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN JUST A FEW MINUTES OF PRECIP
THEN COMING TO AN END. HAVE DECREASED POPS AS THESE SHOWERS ARE
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

QUIET WEATHER. SCATTERED RAIN / SNOW SHOWERS CONCLUDE WITH ONLY
REMNANT MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING. BREEZY W-WINDS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND THE LOW-30S...NEAR-
SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DEPENDENCE OF THE FORECAST UPON THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ITS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE REFLECTION IN AREAS OF FAVORABLE BAROCLINICITY / THERMAL
PACKING. THE CLOSER TO THE S NEW ENGLAND SHORELINE...THE GREATER THE
IMPACT. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE NOTING
THE EC / NAM ALONG THE N-END OF THE ENVELOP WITH ALL OTHER FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SWING AND A MISS.

FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS CLIPPER LOW TRACK OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST ALONG A W-E ZONAL-FLOW. OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION APPEARS
LARGELY ABSENT THOUGH W-E SETUP...DISCREET OUTCOMES APPARENT WITH
FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING ALONG THE PARENT WARM FRONT TO THE CLIPPER
LOW AROUND H7-8. IN ADDITION BETTER MOISTURE AND QG-FORCING MAINTAIN
S OF NEW ENGLAND PARENT WITH THE LOW WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE.

SO FEEL THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIGHT MOSTLY S OF THE MASS-PIKE. SUBSEQUENTLY WITH DRY LOW-
LEVELS AT ONSET FEEL WETBULBING / DYNAMIC COOLING OF LOW-LEVELS WILL
BE MINIMAL AGAINST HIGHS THAT ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW- TO
MID-40S WITH DAYTIME HEATING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STORM WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE LATE. YET PROCEEDING INTO A EVENING ALONG WITH AN
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF WINDS THAT WILL FUNNEL OUT OF THE N ABSENT
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...FEEL PRECIP-TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN RAIN /
SNOW FROM WHICH AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
IF ANY...A TRACE AT MOST ON LINGERING SNOWPACK / ELEVATED SURFACES.

GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND ISLANDS.
MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH
SNOW...IF ANYTHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD SCALE WITH SOME EXPECTED
DETAIL DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS/COLD FRONTS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. EXCELLENT MIXING...
COUPLED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR
ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT...LOOKING AT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF QPF. THERE ARE STILL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS PERIOD SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN THEY WILL ACTUALLY
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY GIVING US OUR FIRST 60+ DEGREE DAY OF
THE SPRING. TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY...DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS THE LAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

MONDAY...ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE ONCE AGAIN...CREEPING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

LINGERING SCT -SHRA/-SHSN CONCLUDING TOWARDS 02Z. VFR. COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND
WHICH WINDS VEER W/NW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SWEEPING S OF NEW ENGLAND. LOWEST CONDITIONS ACROSS S-MOST
NEW ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL IFR WITH -SN. OTHERWISE LOW-END VFR /
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MOSTLY S OF THE CT-RI-MA BORDER. N/NW WINDS
INCREASING LATE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

KBOS TAF...GUSTY W-WINDS OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TAF...QUIET WEATHER PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT IN FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING HRS. SW-WINDS
BACKING NW DURING WHICH TIME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THOUGH COULD BE
SOME LINGERING ISSUES FOR RI / BI SOUND.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS S OF NEW ENGLAND. N/NW FLOW...WHICH WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL BE A LULL IN
WIND AND WAVE ACTION DURING WHICH TIME A RAIN / SNOW MIX WILL BE
AN ISSUE MOSTLY FOR THE S-WATERS WITH POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT.
THEN WAVES INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH ENHANCING N/NW-FLOW.

SMALL-CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE INNER-WATERS EXPIRE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS TWO SEPARATE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND THEIR COLD FRONTS APPROACH THE WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS AT LEAST ON THE
OUTER WATERS...IF NOT ON THE INTERIOR BAYS AND SOUNDS AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ233-234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 302304
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
704 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET NIGHT OF WEATHER PRIOR TO A CLIPPER-LOW SWEEPING SOUTH OF
THE REGION BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SOUTHERN-MOST
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS WEEK THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN JUST A FEW MINUTES OF PRECIP
THEN COMING TO AN END. HAVE DECREASED POPS AS THESE SHOWERS ARE
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

QUIET WEATHER. SCATTERED RAIN / SNOW SHOWERS CONCLUDE WITH ONLY
REMNANT MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING. BREEZY W-WINDS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND THE LOW-30S...NEAR-
SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DEPENDENCE OF THE FORECAST UPON THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ITS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE REFLECTION IN AREAS OF FAVORABLE BAROCLINICITY / THERMAL
PACKING. THE CLOSER TO THE S NEW ENGLAND SHORELINE...THE GREATER THE
IMPACT. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE NOTING
THE EC / NAM ALONG THE N-END OF THE ENVELOP WITH ALL OTHER FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SWING AND A MISS.

FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS CLIPPER LOW TRACK OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST ALONG A W-E ZONAL-FLOW. OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION APPEARS
LARGELY ABSENT THOUGH W-E SETUP...DISCREET OUTCOMES APPARENT WITH
FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING ALONG THE PARENT WARM FRONT TO THE CLIPPER
LOW AROUND H7-8. IN ADDITION BETTER MOISTURE AND QG-FORCING MAINTAIN
S OF NEW ENGLAND PARENT WITH THE LOW WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE.

SO FEEL THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIGHT MOSTLY S OF THE MASS-PIKE. SUBSEQUENTLY WITH DRY LOW-
LEVELS AT ONSET FEEL WETBULBING / DYNAMIC COOLING OF LOW-LEVELS WILL
BE MINIMAL AGAINST HIGHS THAT ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW- TO
MID-40S WITH DAYTIME HEATING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STORM WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE LATE. YET PROCEEDING INTO A EVENING ALONG WITH AN
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF WINDS THAT WILL FUNNEL OUT OF THE N ABSENT
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...FEEL PRECIP-TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN RAIN /
SNOW FROM WHICH AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
IF ANY...A TRACE AT MOST ON LINGERING SNOWPACK / ELEVATED SURFACES.

GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND ISLANDS.
MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH
SNOW...IF ANYTHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD SCALE WITH SOME EXPECTED
DETAIL DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS/COLD FRONTS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. EXCELLENT MIXING...
COUPLED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR
ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT...LOOKING AT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF QPF. THERE ARE STILL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS PERIOD SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN THEY WILL ACTUALLY
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY GIVING US OUR FIRST 60+ DEGREE DAY OF
THE SPRING. TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY...DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS THE LAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

MONDAY...ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE ONCE AGAIN...CREEPING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

LINGERING SCT -SHRA/-SHSN CONCLUDING TOWARDS 02Z. VFR. COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND
WHICH WINDS VEER W/NW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SWEEPING S OF NEW ENGLAND. LOWEST CONDITIONS ACROSS S-MOST
NEW ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL IFR WITH -SN. OTHERWISE LOW-END VFR /
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MOSTLY S OF THE CT-RI-MA BORDER. N/NW WINDS
INCREASING LATE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

KBOS TAF...GUSTY W-WINDS OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TAF...QUIET WEATHER PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT IN FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING HRS. SW-WINDS
BACKING NW DURING WHICH TIME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THOUGH COULD BE
SOME LINGERING ISSUES FOR RI / BI SOUND.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS S OF NEW ENGLAND. N/NW FLOW...WHICH WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL BE A LULL IN
WIND AND WAVE ACTION DURING WHICH TIME A RAIN / SNOW MIX WILL BE
AN ISSUE MOSTLY FOR THE S-WATERS WITH POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT.
THEN WAVES INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH ENHANCING N/NW-FLOW.

SMALL-CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE INNER-WATERS EXPIRE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS TWO SEPARATE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND THEIR COLD FRONTS APPROACH THE WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS AT LEAST ON THE
OUTER WATERS...IF NOT ON THE INTERIOR BAYS AND SOUNDS AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ233-234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 302304
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
704 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET NIGHT OF WEATHER PRIOR TO A CLIPPER-LOW SWEEPING SOUTH OF
THE REGION BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SOUTHERN-MOST
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS WEEK THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN JUST A FEW MINUTES OF PRECIP
THEN COMING TO AN END. HAVE DECREASED POPS AS THESE SHOWERS ARE
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

QUIET WEATHER. SCATTERED RAIN / SNOW SHOWERS CONCLUDE WITH ONLY
REMNANT MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING. BREEZY W-WINDS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND THE LOW-30S...NEAR-
SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DEPENDENCE OF THE FORECAST UPON THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ITS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE REFLECTION IN AREAS OF FAVORABLE BAROCLINICITY / THERMAL
PACKING. THE CLOSER TO THE S NEW ENGLAND SHORELINE...THE GREATER THE
IMPACT. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE NOTING
THE EC / NAM ALONG THE N-END OF THE ENVELOP WITH ALL OTHER FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SWING AND A MISS.

FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS CLIPPER LOW TRACK OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST ALONG A W-E ZONAL-FLOW. OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION APPEARS
LARGELY ABSENT THOUGH W-E SETUP...DISCREET OUTCOMES APPARENT WITH
FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING ALONG THE PARENT WARM FRONT TO THE CLIPPER
LOW AROUND H7-8. IN ADDITION BETTER MOISTURE AND QG-FORCING MAINTAIN
S OF NEW ENGLAND PARENT WITH THE LOW WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE.

SO FEEL THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIGHT MOSTLY S OF THE MASS-PIKE. SUBSEQUENTLY WITH DRY LOW-
LEVELS AT ONSET FEEL WETBULBING / DYNAMIC COOLING OF LOW-LEVELS WILL
BE MINIMAL AGAINST HIGHS THAT ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW- TO
MID-40S WITH DAYTIME HEATING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STORM WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE LATE. YET PROCEEDING INTO A EVENING ALONG WITH AN
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF WINDS THAT WILL FUNNEL OUT OF THE N ABSENT
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...FEEL PRECIP-TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN RAIN /
SNOW FROM WHICH AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
IF ANY...A TRACE AT MOST ON LINGERING SNOWPACK / ELEVATED SURFACES.

GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND ISLANDS.
MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH
SNOW...IF ANYTHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD SCALE WITH SOME EXPECTED
DETAIL DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS/COLD FRONTS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. EXCELLENT MIXING...
COUPLED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR
ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT...LOOKING AT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF QPF. THERE ARE STILL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS PERIOD SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN THEY WILL ACTUALLY
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY GIVING US OUR FIRST 60+ DEGREE DAY OF
THE SPRING. TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY...DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS THE LAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

MONDAY...ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE ONCE AGAIN...CREEPING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

LINGERING SCT -SHRA/-SHSN CONCLUDING TOWARDS 02Z. VFR. COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND
WHICH WINDS VEER W/NW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SWEEPING S OF NEW ENGLAND. LOWEST CONDITIONS ACROSS S-MOST
NEW ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL IFR WITH -SN. OTHERWISE LOW-END VFR /
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MOSTLY S OF THE CT-RI-MA BORDER. N/NW WINDS
INCREASING LATE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

KBOS TAF...GUSTY W-WINDS OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TAF...QUIET WEATHER PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT IN FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING HRS. SW-WINDS
BACKING NW DURING WHICH TIME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THOUGH COULD BE
SOME LINGERING ISSUES FOR RI / BI SOUND.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS S OF NEW ENGLAND. N/NW FLOW...WHICH WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL BE A LULL IN
WIND AND WAVE ACTION DURING WHICH TIME A RAIN / SNOW MIX WILL BE
AN ISSUE MOSTLY FOR THE S-WATERS WITH POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT.
THEN WAVES INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH ENHANCING N/NW-FLOW.

SMALL-CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE INNER-WATERS EXPIRE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS TWO SEPARATE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND THEIR COLD FRONTS APPROACH THE WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS AT LEAST ON THE
OUTER WATERS...IF NOT ON THE INTERIOR BAYS AND SOUNDS AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ233-234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 302304
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
704 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET NIGHT OF WEATHER PRIOR TO A CLIPPER-LOW SWEEPING SOUTH OF
THE REGION BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SOUTHERN-MOST
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS WEEK THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN JUST A FEW MINUTES OF PRECIP
THEN COMING TO AN END. HAVE DECREASED POPS AS THESE SHOWERS ARE
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

QUIET WEATHER. SCATTERED RAIN / SNOW SHOWERS CONCLUDE WITH ONLY
REMNANT MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING. BREEZY W-WINDS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND THE LOW-30S...NEAR-
SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DEPENDENCE OF THE FORECAST UPON THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ITS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE REFLECTION IN AREAS OF FAVORABLE BAROCLINICITY / THERMAL
PACKING. THE CLOSER TO THE S NEW ENGLAND SHORELINE...THE GREATER THE
IMPACT. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE NOTING
THE EC / NAM ALONG THE N-END OF THE ENVELOP WITH ALL OTHER FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SWING AND A MISS.

FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS CLIPPER LOW TRACK OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST ALONG A W-E ZONAL-FLOW. OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION APPEARS
LARGELY ABSENT THOUGH W-E SETUP...DISCREET OUTCOMES APPARENT WITH
FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING ALONG THE PARENT WARM FRONT TO THE CLIPPER
LOW AROUND H7-8. IN ADDITION BETTER MOISTURE AND QG-FORCING MAINTAIN
S OF NEW ENGLAND PARENT WITH THE LOW WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE.

SO FEEL THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIGHT MOSTLY S OF THE MASS-PIKE. SUBSEQUENTLY WITH DRY LOW-
LEVELS AT ONSET FEEL WETBULBING / DYNAMIC COOLING OF LOW-LEVELS WILL
BE MINIMAL AGAINST HIGHS THAT ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW- TO
MID-40S WITH DAYTIME HEATING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STORM WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE LATE. YET PROCEEDING INTO A EVENING ALONG WITH AN
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF WINDS THAT WILL FUNNEL OUT OF THE N ABSENT
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...FEEL PRECIP-TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN RAIN /
SNOW FROM WHICH AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
IF ANY...A TRACE AT MOST ON LINGERING SNOWPACK / ELEVATED SURFACES.

GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND ISLANDS.
MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH
SNOW...IF ANYTHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD SCALE WITH SOME EXPECTED
DETAIL DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS/COLD FRONTS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. EXCELLENT MIXING...
COUPLED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR
ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT...LOOKING AT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF QPF. THERE ARE STILL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS PERIOD SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN THEY WILL ACTUALLY
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY GIVING US OUR FIRST 60+ DEGREE DAY OF
THE SPRING. TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY...DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS THE LAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

MONDAY...ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE ONCE AGAIN...CREEPING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

LINGERING SCT -SHRA/-SHSN CONCLUDING TOWARDS 02Z. VFR. COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND
WHICH WINDS VEER W/NW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SWEEPING S OF NEW ENGLAND. LOWEST CONDITIONS ACROSS S-MOST
NEW ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL IFR WITH -SN. OTHERWISE LOW-END VFR /
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MOSTLY S OF THE CT-RI-MA BORDER. N/NW WINDS
INCREASING LATE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

KBOS TAF...GUSTY W-WINDS OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TAF...QUIET WEATHER PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT IN FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING HRS. SW-WINDS
BACKING NW DURING WHICH TIME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THOUGH COULD BE
SOME LINGERING ISSUES FOR RI / BI SOUND.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS S OF NEW ENGLAND. N/NW FLOW...WHICH WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL BE A LULL IN
WIND AND WAVE ACTION DURING WHICH TIME A RAIN / SNOW MIX WILL BE
AN ISSUE MOSTLY FOR THE S-WATERS WITH POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT.
THEN WAVES INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH ENHANCING N/NW-FLOW.

SMALL-CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE INNER-WATERS EXPIRE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS TWO SEPARATE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND THEIR COLD FRONTS APPROACH THE WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS AT LEAST ON THE
OUTER WATERS...IF NOT ON THE INTERIOR BAYS AND SOUNDS AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ233-234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 302304
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
704 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET NIGHT OF WEATHER PRIOR TO A CLIPPER-LOW SWEEPING SOUTH OF
THE REGION BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SOUTHERN-MOST
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS WEEK THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN JUST A FEW MINUTES OF PRECIP
THEN COMING TO AN END. HAVE DECREASED POPS AS THESE SHOWERS ARE
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

QUIET WEATHER. SCATTERED RAIN / SNOW SHOWERS CONCLUDE WITH ONLY
REMNANT MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING. BREEZY W-WINDS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND THE LOW-30S...NEAR-
SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DEPENDENCE OF THE FORECAST UPON THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ITS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE REFLECTION IN AREAS OF FAVORABLE BAROCLINICITY / THERMAL
PACKING. THE CLOSER TO THE S NEW ENGLAND SHORELINE...THE GREATER THE
IMPACT. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE NOTING
THE EC / NAM ALONG THE N-END OF THE ENVELOP WITH ALL OTHER FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SWING AND A MISS.

FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS CLIPPER LOW TRACK OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST ALONG A W-E ZONAL-FLOW. OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION APPEARS
LARGELY ABSENT THOUGH W-E SETUP...DISCREET OUTCOMES APPARENT WITH
FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING ALONG THE PARENT WARM FRONT TO THE CLIPPER
LOW AROUND H7-8. IN ADDITION BETTER MOISTURE AND QG-FORCING MAINTAIN
S OF NEW ENGLAND PARENT WITH THE LOW WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE.

SO FEEL THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIGHT MOSTLY S OF THE MASS-PIKE. SUBSEQUENTLY WITH DRY LOW-
LEVELS AT ONSET FEEL WETBULBING / DYNAMIC COOLING OF LOW-LEVELS WILL
BE MINIMAL AGAINST HIGHS THAT ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW- TO
MID-40S WITH DAYTIME HEATING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STORM WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE LATE. YET PROCEEDING INTO A EVENING ALONG WITH AN
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF WINDS THAT WILL FUNNEL OUT OF THE N ABSENT
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...FEEL PRECIP-TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN RAIN /
SNOW FROM WHICH AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
IF ANY...A TRACE AT MOST ON LINGERING SNOWPACK / ELEVATED SURFACES.

GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND ISLANDS.
MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH
SNOW...IF ANYTHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD SCALE WITH SOME EXPECTED
DETAIL DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS/COLD FRONTS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. EXCELLENT MIXING...
COUPLED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR
ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT...LOOKING AT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF QPF. THERE ARE STILL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS PERIOD SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN THEY WILL ACTUALLY
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY GIVING US OUR FIRST 60+ DEGREE DAY OF
THE SPRING. TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY...DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS THE LAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

MONDAY...ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE ONCE AGAIN...CREEPING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

LINGERING SCT -SHRA/-SHSN CONCLUDING TOWARDS 02Z. VFR. COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND
WHICH WINDS VEER W/NW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SWEEPING S OF NEW ENGLAND. LOWEST CONDITIONS ACROSS S-MOST
NEW ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL IFR WITH -SN. OTHERWISE LOW-END VFR /
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MOSTLY S OF THE CT-RI-MA BORDER. N/NW WINDS
INCREASING LATE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

KBOS TAF...GUSTY W-WINDS OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TAF...QUIET WEATHER PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT IN FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING HRS. SW-WINDS
BACKING NW DURING WHICH TIME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THOUGH COULD BE
SOME LINGERING ISSUES FOR RI / BI SOUND.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS S OF NEW ENGLAND. N/NW FLOW...WHICH WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL BE A LULL IN
WIND AND WAVE ACTION DURING WHICH TIME A RAIN / SNOW MIX WILL BE
AN ISSUE MOSTLY FOR THE S-WATERS WITH POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT.
THEN WAVES INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH ENHANCING N/NW-FLOW.

SMALL-CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE INNER-WATERS EXPIRE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS TWO SEPARATE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND THEIR COLD FRONTS APPROACH THE WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS AT LEAST ON THE
OUTER WATERS...IF NOT ON THE INTERIOR BAYS AND SOUNDS AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ233-234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KGYX 302300
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
700 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG IT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO SKY AND TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS AND SATELLITE DATA. ALSO BOOSTED POP IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1ST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
WILL BE DEPARTING THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST DEVELOPING DURING
THE EVENING HOURS DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT CLOUDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE A
DRY NIGHT BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
THROUGH THE 20S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY TUESDAY SETTING UP A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 30S IN THE NORTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKING MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN
5 AND 10 DEGREES NORTH AND WILL RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEK.

ON WEDNESDAY THE COLDER AIR AND TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA.
AS IT DOES A WEAK STORM WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
BRINING CLOUD COVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. CLEAR
SKIES TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE
AGAIN FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH AND MID 20S SOUTH.

BY THURSDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM ALOFT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AROUND A HIGH SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. FOR NEW
HAMPSHIRE SOUTH OF THE NOTCHES AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY THIS SOUTH
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 50. ALONG THE MAINE
COAST FROM PORTLAND THROUGH PENOBSCOT BAY THAT SAME SOUTH WIND
WILL FLOW OVER THE 37 DEGREE OCEAN, KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW 40
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY WILL SEE MORE WARMING... WITH SOUTHERN NH REACHING 60
DEGREES. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON BRINGING SHOWERS. THAT FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER LOW REDEVELOPS ALONG IT ON
SATURDAY. STILL A BIT OF A SPREAD ON TIMING WITH THE SHOWERS,
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFF SHORE WHICH WOULD KEEP JUST SOUTHERN
SECTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS SEE JUST CLOUDS,
HOWEVER EXACT LOCATION IS A BIT SUSPECT AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THE MOUNTAINS HOLD ONTO THE RAIN A BIT LONGER. NO MATTER
THE TIMING, THE RESULT IS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH WARM TEMPS FRIDAY... IT WILL FALL AS
RAIN FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHEST SUMMITS. BUT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
FURTHER THROUGH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON COLD AIR WILL SWITCH THE
PRECIP OVER TO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SUNDAY WILL
SEE COLDER HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...00Z UPDATE...COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AND ALL AREAS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR OTHER THAN HIE WHERE
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY EARLY THIS
EVENING... IMPROVING TO VFR. VFR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM... CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR ON THURSDAY
NIGHT... WITH LIFR IN FOG POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL SITES. WILL SEE A
MIX OF MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO
VFR LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SCA POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KISTNER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 302300
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
700 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG IT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO SKY AND TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS AND SATELLITE DATA. ALSO BOOSTED POP IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1ST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
WILL BE DEPARTING THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST DEVELOPING DURING
THE EVENING HOURS DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT CLOUDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE A
DRY NIGHT BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
THROUGH THE 20S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY TUESDAY SETTING UP A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 30S IN THE NORTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKING MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN
5 AND 10 DEGREES NORTH AND WILL RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEK.

ON WEDNESDAY THE COLDER AIR AND TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA.
AS IT DOES A WEAK STORM WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
BRINING CLOUD COVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. CLEAR
SKIES TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE
AGAIN FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH AND MID 20S SOUTH.

BY THURSDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM ALOFT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AROUND A HIGH SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. FOR NEW
HAMPSHIRE SOUTH OF THE NOTCHES AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY THIS SOUTH
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 50. ALONG THE MAINE
COAST FROM PORTLAND THROUGH PENOBSCOT BAY THAT SAME SOUTH WIND
WILL FLOW OVER THE 37 DEGREE OCEAN, KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW 40
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY WILL SEE MORE WARMING... WITH SOUTHERN NH REACHING 60
DEGREES. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON BRINGING SHOWERS. THAT FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER LOW REDEVELOPS ALONG IT ON
SATURDAY. STILL A BIT OF A SPREAD ON TIMING WITH THE SHOWERS,
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFF SHORE WHICH WOULD KEEP JUST SOUTHERN
SECTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS SEE JUST CLOUDS,
HOWEVER EXACT LOCATION IS A BIT SUSPECT AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THE MOUNTAINS HOLD ONTO THE RAIN A BIT LONGER. NO MATTER
THE TIMING, THE RESULT IS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH WARM TEMPS FRIDAY... IT WILL FALL AS
RAIN FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHEST SUMMITS. BUT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
FURTHER THROUGH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON COLD AIR WILL SWITCH THE
PRECIP OVER TO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SUNDAY WILL
SEE COLDER HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...00Z UPDATE...COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AND ALL AREAS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR OTHER THAN HIE WHERE
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY EARLY THIS
EVENING... IMPROVING TO VFR. VFR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM... CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR ON THURSDAY
NIGHT... WITH LIFR IN FOG POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL SITES. WILL SEE A
MIX OF MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO
VFR LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SCA POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KISTNER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 302300
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
700 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG IT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO SKY AND TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS AND SATELLITE DATA. ALSO BOOSTED POP IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1ST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
WILL BE DEPARTING THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST DEVELOPING DURING
THE EVENING HOURS DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT CLOUDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE A
DRY NIGHT BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
THROUGH THE 20S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY TUESDAY SETTING UP A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 30S IN THE NORTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKING MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN
5 AND 10 DEGREES NORTH AND WILL RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEK.

ON WEDNESDAY THE COLDER AIR AND TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA.
AS IT DOES A WEAK STORM WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
BRINING CLOUD COVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. CLEAR
SKIES TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE
AGAIN FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH AND MID 20S SOUTH.

BY THURSDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM ALOFT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AROUND A HIGH SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. FOR NEW
HAMPSHIRE SOUTH OF THE NOTCHES AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY THIS SOUTH
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 50. ALONG THE MAINE
COAST FROM PORTLAND THROUGH PENOBSCOT BAY THAT SAME SOUTH WIND
WILL FLOW OVER THE 37 DEGREE OCEAN, KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW 40
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY WILL SEE MORE WARMING... WITH SOUTHERN NH REACHING 60
DEGREES. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON BRINGING SHOWERS. THAT FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER LOW REDEVELOPS ALONG IT ON
SATURDAY. STILL A BIT OF A SPREAD ON TIMING WITH THE SHOWERS,
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFF SHORE WHICH WOULD KEEP JUST SOUTHERN
SECTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS SEE JUST CLOUDS,
HOWEVER EXACT LOCATION IS A BIT SUSPECT AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THE MOUNTAINS HOLD ONTO THE RAIN A BIT LONGER. NO MATTER
THE TIMING, THE RESULT IS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH WARM TEMPS FRIDAY... IT WILL FALL AS
RAIN FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHEST SUMMITS. BUT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
FURTHER THROUGH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON COLD AIR WILL SWITCH THE
PRECIP OVER TO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SUNDAY WILL
SEE COLDER HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...00Z UPDATE...COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AND ALL AREAS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR OTHER THAN HIE WHERE
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY EARLY THIS
EVENING... IMPROVING TO VFR. VFR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM... CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR ON THURSDAY
NIGHT... WITH LIFR IN FOG POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL SITES. WILL SEE A
MIX OF MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO
VFR LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SCA POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KISTNER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 302300
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
700 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG IT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO SKY AND TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS AND SATELLITE DATA. ALSO BOOSTED POP IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1ST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
WILL BE DEPARTING THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST DEVELOPING DURING
THE EVENING HOURS DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT CLOUDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE A
DRY NIGHT BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
THROUGH THE 20S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY TUESDAY SETTING UP A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 30S IN THE NORTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKING MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN
5 AND 10 DEGREES NORTH AND WILL RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEK.

ON WEDNESDAY THE COLDER AIR AND TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA.
AS IT DOES A WEAK STORM WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
BRINING CLOUD COVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. CLEAR
SKIES TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE
AGAIN FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH AND MID 20S SOUTH.

BY THURSDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM ALOFT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AROUND A HIGH SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. FOR NEW
HAMPSHIRE SOUTH OF THE NOTCHES AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY THIS SOUTH
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 50. ALONG THE MAINE
COAST FROM PORTLAND THROUGH PENOBSCOT BAY THAT SAME SOUTH WIND
WILL FLOW OVER THE 37 DEGREE OCEAN, KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW 40
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY WILL SEE MORE WARMING... WITH SOUTHERN NH REACHING 60
DEGREES. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON BRINGING SHOWERS. THAT FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER LOW REDEVELOPS ALONG IT ON
SATURDAY. STILL A BIT OF A SPREAD ON TIMING WITH THE SHOWERS,
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFF SHORE WHICH WOULD KEEP JUST SOUTHERN
SECTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS SEE JUST CLOUDS,
HOWEVER EXACT LOCATION IS A BIT SUSPECT AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THE MOUNTAINS HOLD ONTO THE RAIN A BIT LONGER. NO MATTER
THE TIMING, THE RESULT IS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH WARM TEMPS FRIDAY... IT WILL FALL AS
RAIN FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHEST SUMMITS. BUT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
FURTHER THROUGH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON COLD AIR WILL SWITCH THE
PRECIP OVER TO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SUNDAY WILL
SEE COLDER HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...00Z UPDATE...COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AND ALL AREAS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR OTHER THAN HIE WHERE
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY EARLY THIS
EVENING... IMPROVING TO VFR. VFR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM... CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR ON THURSDAY
NIGHT... WITH LIFR IN FOG POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL SITES. WILL SEE A
MIX OF MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO
VFR LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SCA POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KISTNER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 302300
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
700 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG IT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO SKY AND TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS AND SATELLITE DATA. ALSO BOOSTED POP IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1ST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
WILL BE DEPARTING THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST DEVELOPING DURING
THE EVENING HOURS DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT CLOUDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE A
DRY NIGHT BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
THROUGH THE 20S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY TUESDAY SETTING UP A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 30S IN THE NORTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKING MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN
5 AND 10 DEGREES NORTH AND WILL RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEK.

ON WEDNESDAY THE COLDER AIR AND TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA.
AS IT DOES A WEAK STORM WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
BRINING CLOUD COVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. CLEAR
SKIES TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE
AGAIN FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH AND MID 20S SOUTH.

BY THURSDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM ALOFT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AROUND A HIGH SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. FOR NEW
HAMPSHIRE SOUTH OF THE NOTCHES AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY THIS SOUTH
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 50. ALONG THE MAINE
COAST FROM PORTLAND THROUGH PENOBSCOT BAY THAT SAME SOUTH WIND
WILL FLOW OVER THE 37 DEGREE OCEAN, KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW 40
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY WILL SEE MORE WARMING... WITH SOUTHERN NH REACHING 60
DEGREES. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON BRINGING SHOWERS. THAT FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER LOW REDEVELOPS ALONG IT ON
SATURDAY. STILL A BIT OF A SPREAD ON TIMING WITH THE SHOWERS,
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFF SHORE WHICH WOULD KEEP JUST SOUTHERN
SECTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS SEE JUST CLOUDS,
HOWEVER EXACT LOCATION IS A BIT SUSPECT AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THE MOUNTAINS HOLD ONTO THE RAIN A BIT LONGER. NO MATTER
THE TIMING, THE RESULT IS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH WARM TEMPS FRIDAY... IT WILL FALL AS
RAIN FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHEST SUMMITS. BUT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
FURTHER THROUGH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON COLD AIR WILL SWITCH THE
PRECIP OVER TO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SUNDAY WILL
SEE COLDER HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...00Z UPDATE...COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AND ALL AREAS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR OTHER THAN HIE WHERE
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY EARLY THIS
EVENING... IMPROVING TO VFR. VFR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM... CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR ON THURSDAY
NIGHT... WITH LIFR IN FOG POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL SITES. WILL SEE A
MIX OF MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO
VFR LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SCA POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KISTNER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 302300
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
700 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG IT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO SKY AND TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS AND SATELLITE DATA. ALSO BOOSTED POP IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1ST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
WILL BE DEPARTING THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST DEVELOPING DURING
THE EVENING HOURS DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT CLOUDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE A
DRY NIGHT BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
THROUGH THE 20S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY TUESDAY SETTING UP A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 30S IN THE NORTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKING MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN
5 AND 10 DEGREES NORTH AND WILL RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEK.

ON WEDNESDAY THE COLDER AIR AND TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA.
AS IT DOES A WEAK STORM WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
BRINING CLOUD COVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. CLEAR
SKIES TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE
AGAIN FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH AND MID 20S SOUTH.

BY THURSDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM ALOFT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AROUND A HIGH SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. FOR NEW
HAMPSHIRE SOUTH OF THE NOTCHES AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY THIS SOUTH
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 50. ALONG THE MAINE
COAST FROM PORTLAND THROUGH PENOBSCOT BAY THAT SAME SOUTH WIND
WILL FLOW OVER THE 37 DEGREE OCEAN, KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW 40
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY WILL SEE MORE WARMING... WITH SOUTHERN NH REACHING 60
DEGREES. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON BRINGING SHOWERS. THAT FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER LOW REDEVELOPS ALONG IT ON
SATURDAY. STILL A BIT OF A SPREAD ON TIMING WITH THE SHOWERS,
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFF SHORE WHICH WOULD KEEP JUST SOUTHERN
SECTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS SEE JUST CLOUDS,
HOWEVER EXACT LOCATION IS A BIT SUSPECT AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THE MOUNTAINS HOLD ONTO THE RAIN A BIT LONGER. NO MATTER
THE TIMING, THE RESULT IS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH WARM TEMPS FRIDAY... IT WILL FALL AS
RAIN FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHEST SUMMITS. BUT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
FURTHER THROUGH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON COLD AIR WILL SWITCH THE
PRECIP OVER TO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SUNDAY WILL
SEE COLDER HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...00Z UPDATE...COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AND ALL AREAS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR OTHER THAN HIE WHERE
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY EARLY THIS
EVENING... IMPROVING TO VFR. VFR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM... CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR ON THURSDAY
NIGHT... WITH LIFR IN FOG POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL SITES. WILL SEE A
MIX OF MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO
VFR LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SCA POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KISTNER



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301918
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
318 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A QUIET NIGHT OF WEATHER PRIOR TO A CLIPPER-LOW SWEEPING SOUTH OF
THE REGION BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SOUTHERN-MOST
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS WEEK THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

QUIET WEATHER. SCATTERED RAIN / SNOW SHOWERS CONCLUDE WITH ONLY
REMNANT MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING. BREEZY W-WINDS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND THE LOW-30S...NEAR-
SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DEPENDENCE OF THE FORECAST UPON THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ITS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE REFLECTION IN AREAS OF FAVORABLE BAROCLINICITY / THERMAL
PACKING. THE CLOSER TO THE S NEW ENGLAND SHORELINE...THE GREATER THE
IMPACT. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE NOTING
THE EC / NAM ALONG THE N-END OF THE ENVELOP WITH ALL OTHER FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SWING AND A MISS.

FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS CLIPPER LOW TRACK OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST ALONG A W-E ZONAL-FLOW. OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION APPEARS
LARGELY ABSENT THOUGH W-E SETUP...DISCREET OUTCOMES APPARENT WITH
FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING ALONG THE PARENT WARM FRONT TO THE CLIPPER
LOW AROUND H7-8. IN ADDITION BETTER MOISTURE AND QG-FORCING MAINTAIN
S OF NEW ENGLAND PARENT WITH THE LOW WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE.

SO FEEL THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIGHT MOSTLY S OF THE MASS-PIKE. SUBSEQUENTLY WITH DRY LOW-
LEVELS AT ONSET FEEL WETBULBING / DYNAMIC COOLING OF LOW-LEVELS WILL
BE MINIMAL AGAINST HIGHS THAT ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW- TO
MID-40S WITH DAYTIME HEATING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STORM WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE LATE. YET PROCEEDING INTO A EVENING ALONG WITH AN
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF WINDS THAT WILL FUNNEL OUT OF THE N ABSENT
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...FEEL PRECIP-TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN RAIN /
SNOW FROM WHICH AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
IF ANY...A TRACE AT MOST ON LINGERING SNOWPACK / ELEVATED SURFACES.

GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND ISLANDS.
MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH
SNOW...IF ANYTHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD SCALE WITH SOME EXPECTED
DETAIL DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS/COLD FRONTS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. EXCELLENT MIXING...
COUPLED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR
ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT...LOOKING AT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF QPF. THERE ARE STILL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS PERIOD SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN THEY WILL ACTUALLY
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY GIVING US OUR FIRST 60+ DEGREE DAY OF
THE SPRING. TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY...DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS THE LAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

MONDAY...ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE ONCE AGAIN...CREEPING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

18Z UPDATE...

LINGERING SCT -SHRA/-SHSN CONCLUDING TOWARDS 21Z ALONG WITH LOW-
END VFR / MVFR CIGS ACROSS E-TERMINALS. COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS
THE TERMINALS LATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK
W/NW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SWEEPING S OF NEW ENGLAND. LOWEST CONDITIONS ACROSS S-MOST
NEW ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL IFR WITH -SN. OTHERWISE LOW-END VFR /
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MOSTLY S OF THE CT-RI-MA BORDER. N/NW WINDS
INCREASING LATE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

KBOS TAF...-SHRA CLEARING OUT BY 21Z. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT
THEREAFTER. GUSTY W-WINDS OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TAF...QUIET WEATHER PERIOD. LOW-END VFR LIFTING TOWARDS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT IN FOG.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING HRS. SW-WINDS
BACKING NW DURING WHICH TIME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THOUGH COULD BE
SOME LINGERING ISSUES FOR RI / BI SOUND.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS S OF NEW ENGLAND. N/NW FLOW...WHICH WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL BE A LULL IN
WIND AND WAVE ACTION DURING WHICH TIME A RAIN / SNOW MIX WILL BE
AN ISSUE MOSTLY FOR THE S-WATERS WITH POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT.
THEN WAVES INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH ENHANCING N/NW-FLOW.

SMALL-CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE INNER-WATERS EXPIRE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS TWO SEPARATE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND THEIR COLD FRONTS APPROACH THE WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS AT LEAST ON THE
OUTER WATERS...IF NOT ON THE INTERIOR BAYS AND SOUNDS AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ233-234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301918
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
318 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A QUIET NIGHT OF WEATHER PRIOR TO A CLIPPER-LOW SWEEPING SOUTH OF
THE REGION BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SOUTHERN-MOST
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS WEEK THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

QUIET WEATHER. SCATTERED RAIN / SNOW SHOWERS CONCLUDE WITH ONLY
REMNANT MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING. BREEZY W-WINDS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND THE LOW-30S...NEAR-
SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DEPENDENCE OF THE FORECAST UPON THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ITS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE REFLECTION IN AREAS OF FAVORABLE BAROCLINICITY / THERMAL
PACKING. THE CLOSER TO THE S NEW ENGLAND SHORELINE...THE GREATER THE
IMPACT. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE NOTING
THE EC / NAM ALONG THE N-END OF THE ENVELOP WITH ALL OTHER FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SWING AND A MISS.

FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS CLIPPER LOW TRACK OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST ALONG A W-E ZONAL-FLOW. OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION APPEARS
LARGELY ABSENT THOUGH W-E SETUP...DISCREET OUTCOMES APPARENT WITH
FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING ALONG THE PARENT WARM FRONT TO THE CLIPPER
LOW AROUND H7-8. IN ADDITION BETTER MOISTURE AND QG-FORCING MAINTAIN
S OF NEW ENGLAND PARENT WITH THE LOW WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE.

SO FEEL THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIGHT MOSTLY S OF THE MASS-PIKE. SUBSEQUENTLY WITH DRY LOW-
LEVELS AT ONSET FEEL WETBULBING / DYNAMIC COOLING OF LOW-LEVELS WILL
BE MINIMAL AGAINST HIGHS THAT ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW- TO
MID-40S WITH DAYTIME HEATING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STORM WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE LATE. YET PROCEEDING INTO A EVENING ALONG WITH AN
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF WINDS THAT WILL FUNNEL OUT OF THE N ABSENT
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...FEEL PRECIP-TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN RAIN /
SNOW FROM WHICH AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
IF ANY...A TRACE AT MOST ON LINGERING SNOWPACK / ELEVATED SURFACES.

GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND ISLANDS.
MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH
SNOW...IF ANYTHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD SCALE WITH SOME EXPECTED
DETAIL DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS/COLD FRONTS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. EXCELLENT MIXING...
COUPLED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR
ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT...LOOKING AT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF QPF. THERE ARE STILL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS PERIOD SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN THEY WILL ACTUALLY
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY GIVING US OUR FIRST 60+ DEGREE DAY OF
THE SPRING. TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY...DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS THE LAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

MONDAY...ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE ONCE AGAIN...CREEPING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

18Z UPDATE...

LINGERING SCT -SHRA/-SHSN CONCLUDING TOWARDS 21Z ALONG WITH LOW-
END VFR / MVFR CIGS ACROSS E-TERMINALS. COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS
THE TERMINALS LATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK
W/NW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SWEEPING S OF NEW ENGLAND. LOWEST CONDITIONS ACROSS S-MOST
NEW ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL IFR WITH -SN. OTHERWISE LOW-END VFR /
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MOSTLY S OF THE CT-RI-MA BORDER. N/NW WINDS
INCREASING LATE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

KBOS TAF...-SHRA CLEARING OUT BY 21Z. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT
THEREAFTER. GUSTY W-WINDS OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TAF...QUIET WEATHER PERIOD. LOW-END VFR LIFTING TOWARDS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT IN FOG.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING HRS. SW-WINDS
BACKING NW DURING WHICH TIME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THOUGH COULD BE
SOME LINGERING ISSUES FOR RI / BI SOUND.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS S OF NEW ENGLAND. N/NW FLOW...WHICH WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL BE A LULL IN
WIND AND WAVE ACTION DURING WHICH TIME A RAIN / SNOW MIX WILL BE
AN ISSUE MOSTLY FOR THE S-WATERS WITH POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT.
THEN WAVES INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH ENHANCING N/NW-FLOW.

SMALL-CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE INNER-WATERS EXPIRE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS TWO SEPARATE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND THEIR COLD FRONTS APPROACH THE WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS AT LEAST ON THE
OUTER WATERS...IF NOT ON THE INTERIOR BAYS AND SOUNDS AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ233-234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301838
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
238 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG IT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1ST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
WILL BE DEPARTING THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST DEVELOPING DURING
THE EVENING HOURS DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT CLOUDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE A
DRY NIGHT BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
THROUGH THE 20S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY TUESDAY SETTING UP A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 30S IN THE NORTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKING MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN
5 AND 10 DEGREES NORTH AND WILL RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEK.

ON WEDNESDAY THE COLDER AIR AND TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA.
AS IT DOES A WEAK STORM WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
BRINING CLOUD COVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. CLEAR
SKIES TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE
AGAIN FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH AND MID 20S SOUTH.

BY THURSDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM ALOFT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AROUND A HIGH SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. FOR NEW
HAMPSHIRE SOUTH OF THE NOTCHES AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY THIS SOUTH
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 50. ALONG THE MAINE
COAST FROM PORTLAND THROUGH PENOBSCOT BAY THAT SAME SOUTH WIND
WILL FLOW OVER THE 37 DEGREE OCEAN, KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW 40
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY WILL SEE MORE WARMING... WITH SOUTHERN NH REACHING 60
DEGREES. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON BRINGING SHOWERS. THAT FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER LOW REDEVELOPS ALONG IT ON
SATURDAY. STILL A BIT OF A SPREAD ON TIMING WITH THE SHOWERS,
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFF SHORE WHICH WOULD KEEP JUST SOUTHERN
SECTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS SEE JUST CLOUDS,
HOWEVER EXACT LOCATION IS A BIT SUSPECT AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TOSEE THE MOUNTAINS HOLD ONTO THE RAIN A BIT LONGER. NO MATTER
THE TIMING, THE RESULT IS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH WARM TEMPS FRIDAY... IT WILL FALL AS
RAIN FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHEST SUMMITS. BUT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
FURTHER THROUGH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON COLD AIR WILL SWITCH THE
PRECIP OVER TO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SUNDAY WILL
SEE COLDER HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY EARLY THIS EVENING...
IMPROVING TO VFR. VFR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM... CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR ON THURSDAY
NIGHT... WITH LIFR IN FOG POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL SITES. WILL SEE A
MIX OF MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO
VFR LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SCA POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 301838
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
238 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG IT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1ST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
WILL BE DEPARTING THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST DEVELOPING DURING
THE EVENING HOURS DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT CLOUDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE A
DRY NIGHT BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
THROUGH THE 20S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY TUESDAY SETTING UP A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 30S IN THE NORTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKING MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN
5 AND 10 DEGREES NORTH AND WILL RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEK.

ON WEDNESDAY THE COLDER AIR AND TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA.
AS IT DOES A WEAK STORM WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
BRINING CLOUD COVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. CLEAR
SKIES TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE
AGAIN FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH AND MID 20S SOUTH.

BY THURSDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM ALOFT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AROUND A HIGH SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. FOR NEW
HAMPSHIRE SOUTH OF THE NOTCHES AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY THIS SOUTH
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 50. ALONG THE MAINE
COAST FROM PORTLAND THROUGH PENOBSCOT BAY THAT SAME SOUTH WIND
WILL FLOW OVER THE 37 DEGREE OCEAN, KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW 40
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY WILL SEE MORE WARMING... WITH SOUTHERN NH REACHING 60
DEGREES. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON BRINGING SHOWERS. THAT FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER LOW REDEVELOPS ALONG IT ON
SATURDAY. STILL A BIT OF A SPREAD ON TIMING WITH THE SHOWERS,
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFF SHORE WHICH WOULD KEEP JUST SOUTHERN
SECTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS SEE JUST CLOUDS,
HOWEVER EXACT LOCATION IS A BIT SUSPECT AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TOSEE THE MOUNTAINS HOLD ONTO THE RAIN A BIT LONGER. NO MATTER
THE TIMING, THE RESULT IS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH WARM TEMPS FRIDAY... IT WILL FALL AS
RAIN FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHEST SUMMITS. BUT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
FURTHER THROUGH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON COLD AIR WILL SWITCH THE
PRECIP OVER TO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SUNDAY WILL
SEE COLDER HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY EARLY THIS EVENING...
IMPROVING TO VFR. VFR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM... CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR ON THURSDAY
NIGHT... WITH LIFR IN FOG POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL SITES. WILL SEE A
MIX OF MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO
VFR LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SCA POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301348
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
948 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY BRINGING A FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

WEAK FORCING WITHIN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ON UP TO AROUND H7 IS LENDING TO A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2 MILES OR
LESS...OTHERWISE THE ROADS REMAIN WET. SNOW DRAGGING DOWN COLDER
AIR AND BLUSTERY WINDS TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. WILL
SEE SNOW PUSH OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ALLOWING FOR A
LULL IN THE WEATHER AND SW-FLOW TO PUSH TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND
THE MID-40S...ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW-NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH RESPECT TO HIGHS.

THEREAFTER FOCUS BECOMES ALONG THE COLD FRONT PRESENTLY SITUATED
ACROSS THE E GREAT LAKES. AS IT SWEEPS SE COULD SEE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOP WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. MAIN FORCING OFFSHORE OF W-ATLANTIC MOISTURE WITH A
STRENGTHENING H3 JET AXIS AND ATTENDANT LEFT-EXIT-REGION. PWATS
AND H7 MOISTURE SHIFTING E WITH AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES THAT ARE
SUCCINCT WITH THE PRESENT SNOW-BAND OVER E NEW ENGLAND.

YET MAIN MID-LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT
SHOULD YIELD ENHANCED ASCENT ALONG THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT.
ENOUGH ALTOGETHER TO WARRANT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. NEAR-TERM
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE MIXED ON OUTCOMES LIKELY DUE TO THE DIAGNOSIS
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WHICH IN SOME CASES IS VERY DRY. YET
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY IS PRESENT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ALONG THE
W-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC TENDENCIES...AND ACROSS
FAR SE NEW ENGLAND WHERE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FORCING IS MORE
APPARENT.

SW-FLOW CONTINUING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT 20-25 MPH...
BACKING OUT OF THE W/NW GUSTING 20-30 MPH BEHIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MIXING INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS...EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

TUESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CLIPPER LOW THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECASTS
FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY WITH
THE ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH. ALL MODELS BRING SOME MEASURABLE PCPN
INTO CT BY EVENING...THE GFS COVERS AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...AND THE NAM HAS MEASURABLE PCPN EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN MOST PLACES EXCEPT SNOW IN THE
HILLS. TIMING OF THE PCPN WOULD BE AFTER 21Z. WE HAVE SHIFTED
OUR POPS FARTHER NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS REACHING TO ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE BY 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WED INTO THURSDAY. WESTERN TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CONUS AS A COLD FRONT REACHING THE NORTHEAST
LATE THUR THROUGH SAT. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO AIDED BY AN UPPER LOW
CIRCLING AROUND HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHEAST
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

OVERALL TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS LEAD TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THE RUN FOR THE ALBERTA CLIPPER
INCREASING PRECIP FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE ON WED BUT THE OVERALL COLD FRONT IS SPLIT
AMONGST GUIDANCE. THE GFS REMAINS QUICKER WITH THE SFC FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC FRI COMPARED TO THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. THEREFORE CONTINUED TO BLEND WITH WPC UNTIL THE MODELS
ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARDS WHICH IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN/SNOW WILL
OCCUR. BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMS ONCE TEMPS DROP DUE TO
WETBULBING. STILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AS THERE IS
STILL SPREAD AMONGST THE MODELS. RIGHT NOW ANTICIPATE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLAND.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS SLOW TO MOVE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND MID 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT CHANGEABLE TEMPERATURES... MODULATED
BY THE SFC COLD FRONT THU INTO SAT. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE ON
THE MILD SIDE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETTING ABOVE
FREEZING FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT TEMPERATURES COULD BE THE WARMEST
THEY HAVE BEEN IN OVER FOUR MONTHS FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER AS THE
FRONT PASSES EXPECT TEMPS TO RETURN TO BELOW AVG BY ABOUT 5-15F.

ANTICIPATE THIS COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY
NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC AND CMC. APPEARS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY OR SAT. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING
DIFFERENCE...DECIDED TO BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND
HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE
FORECAST. CAN STAY THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES LOOK WARM SO EXPECT PRECIP
TYPE TO BE MORE OF THE RAIN FORM. HOWEVER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
FRONT COULD SEE SOME WET FLAKES.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MVFR-IFR WITH -SN. OTHERWISE LOW-END VFR TO MVFR CIGS. COLD FRONT
SWEEPS TERMINALS AROUND MID-AFTERNOON WITH SOME SCT -SHRA. GUSTY
SW-FLOW AHEAD WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS...BACKING W/NW WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS.

TONIGHT...
VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

TUESDAY...
VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND RI TOWARD EVENING.

KBOS TAF...-SN AND IFR VSBYS CLEARING BY 14Z. SCT -SHRA/-SHSN
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...BUT FEEL IMPACTS WILL
BE NO LOWER THAN MVFR.

KBDL TAF...WILL HOLD IMPACTS AT LOW-END VFR. COULD SEE BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS...COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS BY FRI EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

TODAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WEST WINDS TRAILING THE
FRONT WILL GUST 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLANDS/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BRIEFLY OVER THE WATERS. LINGERING SMALL CRAFTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF GALES FORCE WINDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-233-234-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301348
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
948 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY BRINGING A FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

WEAK FORCING WITHIN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ON UP TO AROUND H7 IS LENDING TO A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2 MILES OR
LESS...OTHERWISE THE ROADS REMAIN WET. SNOW DRAGGING DOWN COLDER
AIR AND BLUSTERY WINDS TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. WILL
SEE SNOW PUSH OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ALLOWING FOR A
LULL IN THE WEATHER AND SW-FLOW TO PUSH TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND
THE MID-40S...ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW-NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH RESPECT TO HIGHS.

THEREAFTER FOCUS BECOMES ALONG THE COLD FRONT PRESENTLY SITUATED
ACROSS THE E GREAT LAKES. AS IT SWEEPS SE COULD SEE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOP WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. MAIN FORCING OFFSHORE OF W-ATLANTIC MOISTURE WITH A
STRENGTHENING H3 JET AXIS AND ATTENDANT LEFT-EXIT-REGION. PWATS
AND H7 MOISTURE SHIFTING E WITH AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES THAT ARE
SUCCINCT WITH THE PRESENT SNOW-BAND OVER E NEW ENGLAND.

YET MAIN MID-LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT
SHOULD YIELD ENHANCED ASCENT ALONG THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT.
ENOUGH ALTOGETHER TO WARRANT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. NEAR-TERM
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE MIXED ON OUTCOMES LIKELY DUE TO THE DIAGNOSIS
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WHICH IN SOME CASES IS VERY DRY. YET
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY IS PRESENT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ALONG THE
W-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC TENDENCIES...AND ACROSS
FAR SE NEW ENGLAND WHERE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FORCING IS MORE
APPARENT.

SW-FLOW CONTINUING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT 20-25 MPH...
BACKING OUT OF THE W/NW GUSTING 20-30 MPH BEHIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MIXING INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS...EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

TUESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CLIPPER LOW THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECASTS
FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY WITH
THE ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH. ALL MODELS BRING SOME MEASURABLE PCPN
INTO CT BY EVENING...THE GFS COVERS AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...AND THE NAM HAS MEASURABLE PCPN EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN MOST PLACES EXCEPT SNOW IN THE
HILLS. TIMING OF THE PCPN WOULD BE AFTER 21Z. WE HAVE SHIFTED
OUR POPS FARTHER NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS REACHING TO ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE BY 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WED INTO THURSDAY. WESTERN TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CONUS AS A COLD FRONT REACHING THE NORTHEAST
LATE THUR THROUGH SAT. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO AIDED BY AN UPPER LOW
CIRCLING AROUND HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHEAST
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

OVERALL TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS LEAD TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THE RUN FOR THE ALBERTA CLIPPER
INCREASING PRECIP FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE ON WED BUT THE OVERALL COLD FRONT IS SPLIT
AMONGST GUIDANCE. THE GFS REMAINS QUICKER WITH THE SFC FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC FRI COMPARED TO THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. THEREFORE CONTINUED TO BLEND WITH WPC UNTIL THE MODELS
ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARDS WHICH IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN/SNOW WILL
OCCUR. BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMS ONCE TEMPS DROP DUE TO
WETBULBING. STILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AS THERE IS
STILL SPREAD AMONGST THE MODELS. RIGHT NOW ANTICIPATE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLAND.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS SLOW TO MOVE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND MID 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT CHANGEABLE TEMPERATURES... MODULATED
BY THE SFC COLD FRONT THU INTO SAT. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE ON
THE MILD SIDE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETTING ABOVE
FREEZING FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT TEMPERATURES COULD BE THE WARMEST
THEY HAVE BEEN IN OVER FOUR MONTHS FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER AS THE
FRONT PASSES EXPECT TEMPS TO RETURN TO BELOW AVG BY ABOUT 5-15F.

ANTICIPATE THIS COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY
NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC AND CMC. APPEARS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY OR SAT. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING
DIFFERENCE...DECIDED TO BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND
HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE
FORECAST. CAN STAY THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES LOOK WARM SO EXPECT PRECIP
TYPE TO BE MORE OF THE RAIN FORM. HOWEVER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
FRONT COULD SEE SOME WET FLAKES.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MVFR-IFR WITH -SN. OTHERWISE LOW-END VFR TO MVFR CIGS. COLD FRONT
SWEEPS TERMINALS AROUND MID-AFTERNOON WITH SOME SCT -SHRA. GUSTY
SW-FLOW AHEAD WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS...BACKING W/NW WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS.

TONIGHT...
VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

TUESDAY...
VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND RI TOWARD EVENING.

KBOS TAF...-SN AND IFR VSBYS CLEARING BY 14Z. SCT -SHRA/-SHSN
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...BUT FEEL IMPACTS WILL
BE NO LOWER THAN MVFR.

KBDL TAF...WILL HOLD IMPACTS AT LOW-END VFR. COULD SEE BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS...COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS BY FRI EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

TODAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WEST WINDS TRAILING THE
FRONT WILL GUST 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLANDS/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BRIEFLY OVER THE WATERS. LINGERING SMALL CRAFTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF GALES FORCE WINDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-233-234-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301348
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
948 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY BRINGING A FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

WEAK FORCING WITHIN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ON UP TO AROUND H7 IS LENDING TO A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2 MILES OR
LESS...OTHERWISE THE ROADS REMAIN WET. SNOW DRAGGING DOWN COLDER
AIR AND BLUSTERY WINDS TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. WILL
SEE SNOW PUSH OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ALLOWING FOR A
LULL IN THE WEATHER AND SW-FLOW TO PUSH TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND
THE MID-40S...ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW-NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH RESPECT TO HIGHS.

THEREAFTER FOCUS BECOMES ALONG THE COLD FRONT PRESENTLY SITUATED
ACROSS THE E GREAT LAKES. AS IT SWEEPS SE COULD SEE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOP WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. MAIN FORCING OFFSHORE OF W-ATLANTIC MOISTURE WITH A
STRENGTHENING H3 JET AXIS AND ATTENDANT LEFT-EXIT-REGION. PWATS
AND H7 MOISTURE SHIFTING E WITH AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES THAT ARE
SUCCINCT WITH THE PRESENT SNOW-BAND OVER E NEW ENGLAND.

YET MAIN MID-LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT
SHOULD YIELD ENHANCED ASCENT ALONG THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT.
ENOUGH ALTOGETHER TO WARRANT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. NEAR-TERM
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE MIXED ON OUTCOMES LIKELY DUE TO THE DIAGNOSIS
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WHICH IN SOME CASES IS VERY DRY. YET
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY IS PRESENT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ALONG THE
W-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC TENDENCIES...AND ACROSS
FAR SE NEW ENGLAND WHERE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FORCING IS MORE
APPARENT.

SW-FLOW CONTINUING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT 20-25 MPH...
BACKING OUT OF THE W/NW GUSTING 20-30 MPH BEHIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MIXING INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS...EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

TUESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CLIPPER LOW THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECASTS
FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY WITH
THE ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH. ALL MODELS BRING SOME MEASURABLE PCPN
INTO CT BY EVENING...THE GFS COVERS AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...AND THE NAM HAS MEASURABLE PCPN EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN MOST PLACES EXCEPT SNOW IN THE
HILLS. TIMING OF THE PCPN WOULD BE AFTER 21Z. WE HAVE SHIFTED
OUR POPS FARTHER NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS REACHING TO ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE BY 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WED INTO THURSDAY. WESTERN TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CONUS AS A COLD FRONT REACHING THE NORTHEAST
LATE THUR THROUGH SAT. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO AIDED BY AN UPPER LOW
CIRCLING AROUND HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHEAST
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

OVERALL TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS LEAD TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THE RUN FOR THE ALBERTA CLIPPER
INCREASING PRECIP FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE ON WED BUT THE OVERALL COLD FRONT IS SPLIT
AMONGST GUIDANCE. THE GFS REMAINS QUICKER WITH THE SFC FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC FRI COMPARED TO THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. THEREFORE CONTINUED TO BLEND WITH WPC UNTIL THE MODELS
ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARDS WHICH IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN/SNOW WILL
OCCUR. BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMS ONCE TEMPS DROP DUE TO
WETBULBING. STILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AS THERE IS
STILL SPREAD AMONGST THE MODELS. RIGHT NOW ANTICIPATE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLAND.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS SLOW TO MOVE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND MID 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT CHANGEABLE TEMPERATURES... MODULATED
BY THE SFC COLD FRONT THU INTO SAT. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE ON
THE MILD SIDE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETTING ABOVE
FREEZING FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT TEMPERATURES COULD BE THE WARMEST
THEY HAVE BEEN IN OVER FOUR MONTHS FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER AS THE
FRONT PASSES EXPECT TEMPS TO RETURN TO BELOW AVG BY ABOUT 5-15F.

ANTICIPATE THIS COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY
NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC AND CMC. APPEARS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY OR SAT. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING
DIFFERENCE...DECIDED TO BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND
HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE
FORECAST. CAN STAY THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES LOOK WARM SO EXPECT PRECIP
TYPE TO BE MORE OF THE RAIN FORM. HOWEVER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
FRONT COULD SEE SOME WET FLAKES.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MVFR-IFR WITH -SN. OTHERWISE LOW-END VFR TO MVFR CIGS. COLD FRONT
SWEEPS TERMINALS AROUND MID-AFTERNOON WITH SOME SCT -SHRA. GUSTY
SW-FLOW AHEAD WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS...BACKING W/NW WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS.

TONIGHT...
VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

TUESDAY...
VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND RI TOWARD EVENING.

KBOS TAF...-SN AND IFR VSBYS CLEARING BY 14Z. SCT -SHRA/-SHSN
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...BUT FEEL IMPACTS WILL
BE NO LOWER THAN MVFR.

KBDL TAF...WILL HOLD IMPACTS AT LOW-END VFR. COULD SEE BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS...COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS BY FRI EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

TODAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WEST WINDS TRAILING THE
FRONT WILL GUST 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLANDS/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BRIEFLY OVER THE WATERS. LINGERING SMALL CRAFTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF GALES FORCE WINDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-233-234-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301348
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
948 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY BRINGING A FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

WEAK FORCING WITHIN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ON UP TO AROUND H7 IS LENDING TO A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2 MILES OR
LESS...OTHERWISE THE ROADS REMAIN WET. SNOW DRAGGING DOWN COLDER
AIR AND BLUSTERY WINDS TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. WILL
SEE SNOW PUSH OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ALLOWING FOR A
LULL IN THE WEATHER AND SW-FLOW TO PUSH TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND
THE MID-40S...ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW-NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH RESPECT TO HIGHS.

THEREAFTER FOCUS BECOMES ALONG THE COLD FRONT PRESENTLY SITUATED
ACROSS THE E GREAT LAKES. AS IT SWEEPS SE COULD SEE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOP WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. MAIN FORCING OFFSHORE OF W-ATLANTIC MOISTURE WITH A
STRENGTHENING H3 JET AXIS AND ATTENDANT LEFT-EXIT-REGION. PWATS
AND H7 MOISTURE SHIFTING E WITH AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES THAT ARE
SUCCINCT WITH THE PRESENT SNOW-BAND OVER E NEW ENGLAND.

YET MAIN MID-LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT
SHOULD YIELD ENHANCED ASCENT ALONG THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT.
ENOUGH ALTOGETHER TO WARRANT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. NEAR-TERM
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE MIXED ON OUTCOMES LIKELY DUE TO THE DIAGNOSIS
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WHICH IN SOME CASES IS VERY DRY. YET
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY IS PRESENT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ALONG THE
W-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC TENDENCIES...AND ACROSS
FAR SE NEW ENGLAND WHERE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FORCING IS MORE
APPARENT.

SW-FLOW CONTINUING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT 20-25 MPH...
BACKING OUT OF THE W/NW GUSTING 20-30 MPH BEHIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MIXING INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS...EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

TUESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CLIPPER LOW THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECASTS
FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY WITH
THE ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH. ALL MODELS BRING SOME MEASURABLE PCPN
INTO CT BY EVENING...THE GFS COVERS AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...AND THE NAM HAS MEASURABLE PCPN EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN MOST PLACES EXCEPT SNOW IN THE
HILLS. TIMING OF THE PCPN WOULD BE AFTER 21Z. WE HAVE SHIFTED
OUR POPS FARTHER NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS REACHING TO ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE BY 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WED INTO THURSDAY. WESTERN TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CONUS AS A COLD FRONT REACHING THE NORTHEAST
LATE THUR THROUGH SAT. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO AIDED BY AN UPPER LOW
CIRCLING AROUND HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHEAST
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

OVERALL TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS LEAD TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THE RUN FOR THE ALBERTA CLIPPER
INCREASING PRECIP FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE ON WED BUT THE OVERALL COLD FRONT IS SPLIT
AMONGST GUIDANCE. THE GFS REMAINS QUICKER WITH THE SFC FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC FRI COMPARED TO THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. THEREFORE CONTINUED TO BLEND WITH WPC UNTIL THE MODELS
ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARDS WHICH IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN/SNOW WILL
OCCUR. BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMS ONCE TEMPS DROP DUE TO
WETBULBING. STILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AS THERE IS
STILL SPREAD AMONGST THE MODELS. RIGHT NOW ANTICIPATE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLAND.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS SLOW TO MOVE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND MID 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT CHANGEABLE TEMPERATURES... MODULATED
BY THE SFC COLD FRONT THU INTO SAT. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE ON
THE MILD SIDE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETTING ABOVE
FREEZING FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT TEMPERATURES COULD BE THE WARMEST
THEY HAVE BEEN IN OVER FOUR MONTHS FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER AS THE
FRONT PASSES EXPECT TEMPS TO RETURN TO BELOW AVG BY ABOUT 5-15F.

ANTICIPATE THIS COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY
NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC AND CMC. APPEARS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY OR SAT. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING
DIFFERENCE...DECIDED TO BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND
HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE
FORECAST. CAN STAY THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES LOOK WARM SO EXPECT PRECIP
TYPE TO BE MORE OF THE RAIN FORM. HOWEVER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
FRONT COULD SEE SOME WET FLAKES.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MVFR-IFR WITH -SN. OTHERWISE LOW-END VFR TO MVFR CIGS. COLD FRONT
SWEEPS TERMINALS AROUND MID-AFTERNOON WITH SOME SCT -SHRA. GUSTY
SW-FLOW AHEAD WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS...BACKING W/NW WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS.

TONIGHT...
VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

TUESDAY...
VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND RI TOWARD EVENING.

KBOS TAF...-SN AND IFR VSBYS CLEARING BY 14Z. SCT -SHRA/-SHSN
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...BUT FEEL IMPACTS WILL
BE NO LOWER THAN MVFR.

KBDL TAF...WILL HOLD IMPACTS AT LOW-END VFR. COULD SEE BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS...COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS BY FRI EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

TODAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WEST WINDS TRAILING THE
FRONT WILL GUST 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLANDS/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BRIEFLY OVER THE WATERS. LINGERING SMALL CRAFTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF GALES FORCE WINDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-233-234-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301055
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY BRINGING A FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS ALLOWED FOR THE RADAR TO BLOSSOM
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING SUPPORT
SNOW. IN FACT...A FEW BANDS HAVE SET UP...ONE CROSSING THE
BERKSHIRES WHILE ANOTHER IS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST CT. PER WEBCAMS
AND ASOS OBSERVATIONS THESE BANDS WILL DROP VSBYS NEAR 3 SM AND
COAT THE GROUND QUICKLY. EXPECT THESE BANDS/SHOWERS TO EXPAND
EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS STILL
MARGINAL SO EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MORE SCT IN NATURE.

ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS STILL BACK BY PITTSBURGH...AND SHOULD BE
CROSSING THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR MORE SCT SHOWERS. YET BY THIS TIME TEMPS SHOULD WARM
UP INTO THE 40S TO ALLOW FOR P-TYPES TO BE IN THE LIQUID FORM.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 25 MPH.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP WARM TEMPS AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST...REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. AS THE FRONT
PASSES...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND GUST BETWEEN
20-30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MIXING INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS...EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

TUESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CLIPPER LOW THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECASTS
FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY WITH
THE ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH. ALL MODELS BRING SOME MEASURABLE PCPN
INTO CT BY EVENING...THE GFS COVERS AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...AND THE NAM HAS MEASURABLE PCPN EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN MOST PLACES EXCEPT SNOW IN THE
HILLS. TIMING OF THE PCPN WOULD BE AFTER 21Z. WE HAVE SHIFTED
OUR POPS FARTHER NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS REACHING TO ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE BY 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WED INTO THURSDAY. WESTERN TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CONUS AS A COLD FRONT REACHING THE NORTHEAST
LATE THUR THROUGH SAT. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO AIDED BY AN UPPER LOW
CIRCLING AROUND HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHEAST
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

OVERALL TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS LEAD TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THE RUN FOR THE ALBERTA CLIPPER
INCREASING PRECIP FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE ON WED BUT THE OVERALL COLD FRONT IS SPLIT
AMONGST GUIDANCE. THE GFS REMAINS QUICKER WITH THE SFC FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC FRI COMPARED TO THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. THEREFORE CONTINUED TO BLEND WITH WPC UNTIL THE MODELS
ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARDS WHICH IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN/SNOW WILL
OCCUR. BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMS ONCE TEMPS DROP DUE TO
WETBULBING. STILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AS THERE IS
STILL SPREAD AMONGST THE MODELS. RIGHT NOW ANTICIPATE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLAND.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS SLOW TO MOVE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND MID 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT CHANGEABLE TEMPERATURES... MODULATED
BY THE SFC COLD FRONT THU INTO SAT. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE ON
THE MILD SIDE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETTING ABOVE
FREEZING FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT TEMPERATURES COULD BE THE WARMEST
THEY HAVE BEEN IN OVER FOUR MONTHS FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER AS THE
FRONT PASSES EXPECT TEMPS TO RETURN TO BELOW AVG BY ABOUT 5-15F.

ANTICIPATE THIS COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY
NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC AND CMC. APPEARS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY OR SAT. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING
DIFFERENCE...DECIDED TO BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND
HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE
FORECAST. CAN STAY THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES LOOK WARM SO EXPECT PRECIP
TYPE TO BE MORE OF THE RAIN FORM. HOWEVER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
FRONT COULD SEE SOME WET FLAKES.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH 25-30
KNOTS.

TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND RI TOWARD
EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. INCREASING WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. LOW PROB OF ACCUM SNOW ON RUNWAYS AND MVFR CONDITION.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS...COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS BY FRI EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WEST WINDS TRAILING THE
FRONT WILL GUST 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLANDS/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BRIEFLY OVER THE WATERS. LINGERING SMALL CRAFTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF GALES FORCE WINDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-233-234-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301055
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY BRINGING A FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS ALLOWED FOR THE RADAR TO BLOSSOM
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING SUPPORT
SNOW. IN FACT...A FEW BANDS HAVE SET UP...ONE CROSSING THE
BERKSHIRES WHILE ANOTHER IS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST CT. PER WEBCAMS
AND ASOS OBSERVATIONS THESE BANDS WILL DROP VSBYS NEAR 3 SM AND
COAT THE GROUND QUICKLY. EXPECT THESE BANDS/SHOWERS TO EXPAND
EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS STILL
MARGINAL SO EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MORE SCT IN NATURE.

ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS STILL BACK BY PITTSBURGH...AND SHOULD BE
CROSSING THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR MORE SCT SHOWERS. YET BY THIS TIME TEMPS SHOULD WARM
UP INTO THE 40S TO ALLOW FOR P-TYPES TO BE IN THE LIQUID FORM.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 25 MPH.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP WARM TEMPS AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST...REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. AS THE FRONT
PASSES...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND GUST BETWEEN
20-30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MIXING INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS...EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

TUESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CLIPPER LOW THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECASTS
FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY WITH
THE ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH. ALL MODELS BRING SOME MEASURABLE PCPN
INTO CT BY EVENING...THE GFS COVERS AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...AND THE NAM HAS MEASURABLE PCPN EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN MOST PLACES EXCEPT SNOW IN THE
HILLS. TIMING OF THE PCPN WOULD BE AFTER 21Z. WE HAVE SHIFTED
OUR POPS FARTHER NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS REACHING TO ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE BY 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WED INTO THURSDAY. WESTERN TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CONUS AS A COLD FRONT REACHING THE NORTHEAST
LATE THUR THROUGH SAT. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO AIDED BY AN UPPER LOW
CIRCLING AROUND HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHEAST
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

OVERALL TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS LEAD TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THE RUN FOR THE ALBERTA CLIPPER
INCREASING PRECIP FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE ON WED BUT THE OVERALL COLD FRONT IS SPLIT
AMONGST GUIDANCE. THE GFS REMAINS QUICKER WITH THE SFC FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC FRI COMPARED TO THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. THEREFORE CONTINUED TO BLEND WITH WPC UNTIL THE MODELS
ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARDS WHICH IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN/SNOW WILL
OCCUR. BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMS ONCE TEMPS DROP DUE TO
WETBULBING. STILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AS THERE IS
STILL SPREAD AMONGST THE MODELS. RIGHT NOW ANTICIPATE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLAND.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS SLOW TO MOVE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND MID 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT CHANGEABLE TEMPERATURES... MODULATED
BY THE SFC COLD FRONT THU INTO SAT. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE ON
THE MILD SIDE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETTING ABOVE
FREEZING FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT TEMPERATURES COULD BE THE WARMEST
THEY HAVE BEEN IN OVER FOUR MONTHS FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER AS THE
FRONT PASSES EXPECT TEMPS TO RETURN TO BELOW AVG BY ABOUT 5-15F.

ANTICIPATE THIS COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY
NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC AND CMC. APPEARS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY OR SAT. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING
DIFFERENCE...DECIDED TO BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND
HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE
FORECAST. CAN STAY THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES LOOK WARM SO EXPECT PRECIP
TYPE TO BE MORE OF THE RAIN FORM. HOWEVER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
FRONT COULD SEE SOME WET FLAKES.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH 25-30
KNOTS.

TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND RI TOWARD
EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. INCREASING WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. LOW PROB OF ACCUM SNOW ON RUNWAYS AND MVFR CONDITION.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS...COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS BY FRI EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WEST WINDS TRAILING THE
FRONT WILL GUST 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLANDS/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BRIEFLY OVER THE WATERS. LINGERING SMALL CRAFTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF GALES FORCE WINDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-233-234-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301021
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
621 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST TODAY. AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THE FRONT WILL LOITER
NEARBY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. ASOS EQUIPMENT AROUND THE HUDSON VALLEY ARE JUST NOW
STARTING TO DETECT PCPN...DESPITE THE RADAR PRESENTATION. EXPECT
THAT MUCH OF THE PCPN THIS MORNING WILL BE VERY LIGHT OR NOT AT
ALL...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS ON
THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TO SHOW THIS TREND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY BACK ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES...WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. SLY TO SWLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW SRN NH AND PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR OF WRN ME TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL. WINDS OFF THE WATER
HOWEVER WILL LIKELY KEEP COASTAL ME BELOW NORMAL.

MORE OR LESS MOISTURE STARVED...QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT...AND BEST
CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 0.1 INCH WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AIR MASS IS DRY ENOUGH THAT MOST PCPN SHOULD FALL AS
SN...THOUGH A MIX WITH RA ACROSS SRN ZONES IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY.

ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY NRN ZONES...THE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT
OF THE WIND MAY HELP TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
GUSTS...NEAR 35-40 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH LOW PRES PULLING N THRU
QUEBEC. WHAT MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE WILL BE FORCED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND RESULT IN AREAS
OF SHSN CONTINUING INTO TUE. A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE FOR NRN ZONES.

ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MORE OR LESS MIXED OVERNIGHT...KEEPING TEMPS ON
THE MILDER SIDE. COLDEST AIR WILL DELAY UNTIL TUE TO ARRIVE...SO
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE ABLE TO CLIMB TOWARDS 40 NEAR THE COAST WITH
SOME SUNNY SKIES. ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE FOR
FREEZING HOWEVER...AS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ALREADY WORKED INTO
THOSE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE WHILE COLD AIR
CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST IT WILL
STRENGTHEN AND COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST TO PRODUCE SOME STRONGER WINDS ON WEDNESDAY... THOUGH GUSTS
SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA... ONLY IN THE 20 TO 30
MPH RANGE. IT WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER THOUGH AS TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE TO RISE OUT OF THE 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A WARMING
TREND TO COMMENCE ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A WARM FRONT WILL FORM
PRIMARILY TO OUR WEST... BUT COULD EXTEND EASTWARD INTO NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY AND AID IN THE PRODUCTION
OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA ON FRIDAY THOUGH MOST OF THE
FORCING STAYS TO THE NORTH. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THEIR WARMEST LEVELS OF THE SEASON SO
FAR. READINGS IN THE 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 60 DEGREE
READINGS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BEFORE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY BUT WILL STALL
SOMEWHERE OFFSHORE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT UPPER
TROUGH WILL GENERATE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY. NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WOULD BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THIS LOW TRACK... AND THUS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY COULD FALL AS SNOW. IT MAY BE DIFFICULT
TO GET ENOUGH COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. FOR THE
MOST PART THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...AND THUS DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS FOR MOST TERMINALS. GREATEST
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER SHRASN WILL BE AT KLEB AND
KHIE LATE THIS MORNING THRU THE EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST A
BROKEN DECK OF MVFR CIGS TO TRANSITION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. GUSTY SWLY BECOMING WLY WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE
FRONT. THIS WILL PROLONG UPSLOPE SHSN NEAR KHIE INTO TUE.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH STRENGTHENING
NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COULD SEE MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS SHOWERY
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS INTO
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRENGTHENING
OFFSHORE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW
NORTHWEST WINDS TO STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS TO 25 OR 30 KT
ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...KIMBLE/LEGRO
MARINE...KIMBLE/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301021
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
621 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST TODAY. AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THE FRONT WILL LOITER
NEARBY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. ASOS EQUIPMENT AROUND THE HUDSON VALLEY ARE JUST NOW
STARTING TO DETECT PCPN...DESPITE THE RADAR PRESENTATION. EXPECT
THAT MUCH OF THE PCPN THIS MORNING WILL BE VERY LIGHT OR NOT AT
ALL...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS ON
THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TO SHOW THIS TREND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY BACK ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES...WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. SLY TO SWLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW SRN NH AND PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR OF WRN ME TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL. WINDS OFF THE WATER
HOWEVER WILL LIKELY KEEP COASTAL ME BELOW NORMAL.

MORE OR LESS MOISTURE STARVED...QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT...AND BEST
CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 0.1 INCH WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AIR MASS IS DRY ENOUGH THAT MOST PCPN SHOULD FALL AS
SN...THOUGH A MIX WITH RA ACROSS SRN ZONES IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY.

ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY NRN ZONES...THE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT
OF THE WIND MAY HELP TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
GUSTS...NEAR 35-40 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH LOW PRES PULLING N THRU
QUEBEC. WHAT MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE WILL BE FORCED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND RESULT IN AREAS
OF SHSN CONTINUING INTO TUE. A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE FOR NRN ZONES.

ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MORE OR LESS MIXED OVERNIGHT...KEEPING TEMPS ON
THE MILDER SIDE. COLDEST AIR WILL DELAY UNTIL TUE TO ARRIVE...SO
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE ABLE TO CLIMB TOWARDS 40 NEAR THE COAST WITH
SOME SUNNY SKIES. ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE FOR
FREEZING HOWEVER...AS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ALREADY WORKED INTO
THOSE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE WHILE COLD AIR
CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST IT WILL
STRENGTHEN AND COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST TO PRODUCE SOME STRONGER WINDS ON WEDNESDAY... THOUGH GUSTS
SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA... ONLY IN THE 20 TO 30
MPH RANGE. IT WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER THOUGH AS TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE TO RISE OUT OF THE 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A WARMING
TREND TO COMMENCE ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A WARM FRONT WILL FORM
PRIMARILY TO OUR WEST... BUT COULD EXTEND EASTWARD INTO NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY AND AID IN THE PRODUCTION
OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA ON FRIDAY THOUGH MOST OF THE
FORCING STAYS TO THE NORTH. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THEIR WARMEST LEVELS OF THE SEASON SO
FAR. READINGS IN THE 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 60 DEGREE
READINGS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BEFORE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY BUT WILL STALL
SOMEWHERE OFFSHORE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT UPPER
TROUGH WILL GENERATE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY. NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WOULD BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THIS LOW TRACK... AND THUS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY COULD FALL AS SNOW. IT MAY BE DIFFICULT
TO GET ENOUGH COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. FOR THE
MOST PART THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...AND THUS DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS FOR MOST TERMINALS. GREATEST
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER SHRASN WILL BE AT KLEB AND
KHIE LATE THIS MORNING THRU THE EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST A
BROKEN DECK OF MVFR CIGS TO TRANSITION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. GUSTY SWLY BECOMING WLY WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE
FRONT. THIS WILL PROLONG UPSLOPE SHSN NEAR KHIE INTO TUE.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH STRENGTHENING
NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COULD SEE MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS SHOWERY
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS INTO
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRENGTHENING
OFFSHORE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW
NORTHWEST WINDS TO STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS TO 25 OR 30 KT
ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...KIMBLE/LEGRO
MARINE...KIMBLE/LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300805
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
405 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY BRINGING A FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT CROSSING ONTARIO AND OHIO DURING THE NIGHT WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY...CROSSING NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER JET WILL BE IN POSITION DURING THIS TIME WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PROVIDE UPPER
VENTING OVERLAID ABOVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE FRONT. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS. A FEW LIGHT ONES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
OVERNIGHT MAY REACH OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD COME ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TRANSITING COLD FRONT.
TIMING WOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID AFTERNOON
EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR SNOW. BUT EXPECTED WARMING IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING SHOULD CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS...MOSTLY
LESS.

PRESSURE FALLS OF 1MB/HR OR MORE LEAD THIS FRONT. EXPECT
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY.
PRESSURES RISE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT AS STRONGLY. BUT COLD
ADVECTION MAY INDUCE MIXING OF 25 KNOT GUSTS TO THE SURFACE AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MIXING INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS...EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

TUESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CLIPPER LOW THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECASTS
FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY WITH
THE ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH. ALL MODELS BRING SOME MEASURABLE PCPN
INTO CT BY EVENING...THE GFS COVERS AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...AND THE NAM HAS MEASURABLE PCPN EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN MOST PLACES EXCEPT SNOW IN THE
HILLS. TIMING OF THE PCPN WOULD BE AFTER 21Z. WE HAVE SHIFTED
OUR POPS FARTHER NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS REACHING TO ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE BY 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WED INTO THURSDAY. WESTERN TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CONUS AS A COLD FRONT REACHING THE NORTHEAST
LATE THUR THROUGH SAT. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO AIDED BY AN UPPER LOW
CIRCLING AROUND HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHEAST
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

OVERALL TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS LEAD TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THE RUN FOR THE ALBERTA CLIPPER
INCREASING PRECIP FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE ON WED BUT THE OVERALL COLD FRONT IS SPLIT
AMONGST GUIDANCE. THE GFS REMAINS QUICKER WITH THE SFC FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC FRI COMPARED TO THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. THEREFORE CONTINUED TO BLEND WITH WPC UNTIL THE MODELS
ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARDS WHICH IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN/SNOW WILL
OCCUR. BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMS ONCE TEMPS DROP DUE TO
WETBULBING. STILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AS THERE IS
STILL SPREAD AMONGST THE MODELS. RIGHT NOW ANTICIPATE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLAND.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS SLOW TO MOVE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND MID 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT CHANGEABLE TEMPERATURES... MODULATED
BY THE SFC COLD FRONT THU INTO SAT. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE ON
THE MILD SIDE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETTING ABOVE
FREEZING FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT TEMPERATURES COULD BE THE WARMEST
THEY HAVE BEEN IN OVER FOUR MONTHS FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER AS THE
FRONT PASSES EXPECT TEMPS TO RETURN TO BELOW AVG BY ABOUT 5-15F.

ANTICIPATE THIS COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY
NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC AND CMC. APPEARS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY OR SAT. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING
DIFFERENCE...DECIDED TO BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND
HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE
FORECAST. CAN STAY THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES LOOK WARM SO EXPECT PRECIP
TYPE TO BE MORE OF THE RAIN FORM. HOWEVER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
FRONT COULD SEE SOME WET FLAKES.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH 25-30
KNOTS.

TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND RI TOWARD
EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS...COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS BY FRI EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WEST WINDS TRAILING THE
FRONT WILL GUST 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLANDS/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BRIEFLY OVER THE WATERS. LINGERING SMALL CRAFTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF GALES FORCE WINDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300805
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
405 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY BRINGING A FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT CROSSING ONTARIO AND OHIO DURING THE NIGHT WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY...CROSSING NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER JET WILL BE IN POSITION DURING THIS TIME WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PROVIDE UPPER
VENTING OVERLAID ABOVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE FRONT. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS. A FEW LIGHT ONES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
OVERNIGHT MAY REACH OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD COME ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TRANSITING COLD FRONT.
TIMING WOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID AFTERNOON
EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR SNOW. BUT EXPECTED WARMING IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING SHOULD CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS...MOSTLY
LESS.

PRESSURE FALLS OF 1MB/HR OR MORE LEAD THIS FRONT. EXPECT
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY.
PRESSURES RISE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT AS STRONGLY. BUT COLD
ADVECTION MAY INDUCE MIXING OF 25 KNOT GUSTS TO THE SURFACE AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MIXING INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS...EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

TUESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CLIPPER LOW THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECASTS
FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY WITH
THE ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH. ALL MODELS BRING SOME MEASURABLE PCPN
INTO CT BY EVENING...THE GFS COVERS AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...AND THE NAM HAS MEASURABLE PCPN EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN MOST PLACES EXCEPT SNOW IN THE
HILLS. TIMING OF THE PCPN WOULD BE AFTER 21Z. WE HAVE SHIFTED
OUR POPS FARTHER NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS REACHING TO ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE BY 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WED INTO THURSDAY. WESTERN TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CONUS AS A COLD FRONT REACHING THE NORTHEAST
LATE THUR THROUGH SAT. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO AIDED BY AN UPPER LOW
CIRCLING AROUND HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHEAST
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

OVERALL TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS LEAD TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THE RUN FOR THE ALBERTA CLIPPER
INCREASING PRECIP FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE ON WED BUT THE OVERALL COLD FRONT IS SPLIT
AMONGST GUIDANCE. THE GFS REMAINS QUICKER WITH THE SFC FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC FRI COMPARED TO THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. THEREFORE CONTINUED TO BLEND WITH WPC UNTIL THE MODELS
ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARDS WHICH IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN/SNOW WILL
OCCUR. BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMS ONCE TEMPS DROP DUE TO
WETBULBING. STILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AS THERE IS
STILL SPREAD AMONGST THE MODELS. RIGHT NOW ANTICIPATE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLAND.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS SLOW TO MOVE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND MID 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT CHANGEABLE TEMPERATURES... MODULATED
BY THE SFC COLD FRONT THU INTO SAT. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE ON
THE MILD SIDE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETTING ABOVE
FREEZING FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT TEMPERATURES COULD BE THE WARMEST
THEY HAVE BEEN IN OVER FOUR MONTHS FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER AS THE
FRONT PASSES EXPECT TEMPS TO RETURN TO BELOW AVG BY ABOUT 5-15F.

ANTICIPATE THIS COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY
NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC AND CMC. APPEARS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY OR SAT. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING
DIFFERENCE...DECIDED TO BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND
HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE
FORECAST. CAN STAY THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES LOOK WARM SO EXPECT PRECIP
TYPE TO BE MORE OF THE RAIN FORM. HOWEVER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
FRONT COULD SEE SOME WET FLAKES.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH 25-30
KNOTS.

TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND RI TOWARD
EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS...COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS BY FRI EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WEST WINDS TRAILING THE
FRONT WILL GUST 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLANDS/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BRIEFLY OVER THE WATERS. LINGERING SMALL CRAFTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF GALES FORCE WINDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300805
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
405 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY BRINGING A FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT CROSSING ONTARIO AND OHIO DURING THE NIGHT WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY...CROSSING NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER JET WILL BE IN POSITION DURING THIS TIME WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PROVIDE UPPER
VENTING OVERLAID ABOVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE FRONT. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS. A FEW LIGHT ONES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
OVERNIGHT MAY REACH OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD COME ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TRANSITING COLD FRONT.
TIMING WOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID AFTERNOON
EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR SNOW. BUT EXPECTED WARMING IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING SHOULD CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS...MOSTLY
LESS.

PRESSURE FALLS OF 1MB/HR OR MORE LEAD THIS FRONT. EXPECT
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY.
PRESSURES RISE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT AS STRONGLY. BUT COLD
ADVECTION MAY INDUCE MIXING OF 25 KNOT GUSTS TO THE SURFACE AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MIXING INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS...EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

TUESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CLIPPER LOW THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECASTS
FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY WITH
THE ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH. ALL MODELS BRING SOME MEASURABLE PCPN
INTO CT BY EVENING...THE GFS COVERS AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...AND THE NAM HAS MEASURABLE PCPN EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN MOST PLACES EXCEPT SNOW IN THE
HILLS. TIMING OF THE PCPN WOULD BE AFTER 21Z. WE HAVE SHIFTED
OUR POPS FARTHER NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS REACHING TO ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE BY 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WED INTO THURSDAY. WESTERN TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CONUS AS A COLD FRONT REACHING THE NORTHEAST
LATE THUR THROUGH SAT. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO AIDED BY AN UPPER LOW
CIRCLING AROUND HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHEAST
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

OVERALL TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS LEAD TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THE RUN FOR THE ALBERTA CLIPPER
INCREASING PRECIP FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE ON WED BUT THE OVERALL COLD FRONT IS SPLIT
AMONGST GUIDANCE. THE GFS REMAINS QUICKER WITH THE SFC FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC FRI COMPARED TO THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. THEREFORE CONTINUED TO BLEND WITH WPC UNTIL THE MODELS
ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARDS WHICH IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN/SNOW WILL
OCCUR. BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMS ONCE TEMPS DROP DUE TO
WETBULBING. STILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AS THERE IS
STILL SPREAD AMONGST THE MODELS. RIGHT NOW ANTICIPATE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLAND.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS SLOW TO MOVE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND MID 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT CHANGEABLE TEMPERATURES... MODULATED
BY THE SFC COLD FRONT THU INTO SAT. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE ON
THE MILD SIDE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETTING ABOVE
FREEZING FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT TEMPERATURES COULD BE THE WARMEST
THEY HAVE BEEN IN OVER FOUR MONTHS FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER AS THE
FRONT PASSES EXPECT TEMPS TO RETURN TO BELOW AVG BY ABOUT 5-15F.

ANTICIPATE THIS COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY
NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC AND CMC. APPEARS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY OR SAT. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING
DIFFERENCE...DECIDED TO BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND
HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE
FORECAST. CAN STAY THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES LOOK WARM SO EXPECT PRECIP
TYPE TO BE MORE OF THE RAIN FORM. HOWEVER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
FRONT COULD SEE SOME WET FLAKES.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH 25-30
KNOTS.

TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND RI TOWARD
EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS...COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS BY FRI EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WEST WINDS TRAILING THE
FRONT WILL GUST 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLANDS/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BRIEFLY OVER THE WATERS. LINGERING SMALL CRAFTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF GALES FORCE WINDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KGYX 300738
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
338 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST TODAY. AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THE FRONT WILL LOITER
NEARBY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY BACK ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WILL
PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. SLY TO SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW SRN NH AND PARTS OF THE INTERIOR OF WRN ME TO WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL. WINDS OFF THE WATER HOWEVER WILL LIKELY KEEP COASTAL
ME BELOW NORMAL.

MORE OR LESS MOISTURE STARVED...QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT...AND BEST
CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 0.1 INCH WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AIR MASS IS DRY ENOUGH THAT MOST PCPN SHOULD FALL AS
SN...THOUGH A MIX WITH RA ACROSS SRN ZONES IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY.

ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY NRN ZONES...THE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT
OF THE WIND MAY HELP TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
GUSTS...NEAR 35-40 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH LOW PRES PULLING N THRU
QUEBEC. WHAT MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE WILL BE FORCED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND RESULT IN AREAS
OF SHSN CONTINUING INTO TUE. A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE FOR NRN ZONES.

ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MORE OR LESS MIXED OVERNIGHT...KEEPING TEMPS ON
THE MILDER SIDE. COLDEST AIR WILL DELAY UNTIL TUE TO ARRIVE...SO
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE ABLE TO CLIMB TOWARDS 40 NEAR THE COAST WITH
SOME SUNNY SKIES. ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE FOR
FREEZING HOWEVER...AS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ALREADY WORKED INTO
THOSE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE WHILE COLD AIR
CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST IT WILL
STRENGTHEN AND COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST TO PRODUCE SOME STRONGER WINDS ON WEDNESDAY... THOUGH GUSTS
SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA... ONLY IN THE 20 TO 30
MPH RANGE. IT WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER THOUGH AS TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE TO RISE OUT OF THE 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A WARMING
TREND TO COMMENCE ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A WARM FRONT WILL FORM
PRIMARILY TO OUR WEST... BUT COULD EXTEND EASTWARD INTO NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY AND AID IN THE PRODUCTION
OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA ON FRIDAY THOUGH MOST OF THE
FORCING STAYS TO THE NORTH. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THEIR WARMEST LEVELS OF THE SEASON SO
FAR. READINGS IN THE 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 60 DEGREE
READINGS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BEFORE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY BUT WILL STALL
SOMEWHERE OFFSHORE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT UPPER
TROUGH WILL GENERATE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY. NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WOULD BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THIS LOW TRACK... AND THUS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY COULD FALL AS SNOW. IT MAY BE DIFFICULT
TO GET ENOUGH COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. FOR THE
MOST PART THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...AND THUS DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS FOR MOST TERMINALS. GREATEST
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER SHRASN WILL BE AT KLEB AND
KHIE LATE THIS MORNING THRU THE EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST A
BROKEN DECK OF MVFR CIGS TO TRANSITION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. GUSTY SWLY BECOMING WLY WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE
FRONT. THIS WILL PROLONG UPSLOPE SHSN NEAR KHIE INTO TUE.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH STRENGTHENING
NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COULD SEE MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS SHOWERY
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS INTO
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRENGTHENING
OFFSHORE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW
NORTHWEST WINDS TO STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS TO 25 OR 30 KT
ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 300738
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
338 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST TODAY. AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THE FRONT WILL LOITER
NEARBY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY BACK ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WILL
PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. SLY TO SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW SRN NH AND PARTS OF THE INTERIOR OF WRN ME TO WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL. WINDS OFF THE WATER HOWEVER WILL LIKELY KEEP COASTAL
ME BELOW NORMAL.

MORE OR LESS MOISTURE STARVED...QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT...AND BEST
CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 0.1 INCH WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AIR MASS IS DRY ENOUGH THAT MOST PCPN SHOULD FALL AS
SN...THOUGH A MIX WITH RA ACROSS SRN ZONES IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY.

ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY NRN ZONES...THE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT
OF THE WIND MAY HELP TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
GUSTS...NEAR 35-40 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH LOW PRES PULLING N THRU
QUEBEC. WHAT MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE WILL BE FORCED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND RESULT IN AREAS
OF SHSN CONTINUING INTO TUE. A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE FOR NRN ZONES.

ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MORE OR LESS MIXED OVERNIGHT...KEEPING TEMPS ON
THE MILDER SIDE. COLDEST AIR WILL DELAY UNTIL TUE TO ARRIVE...SO
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE ABLE TO CLIMB TOWARDS 40 NEAR THE COAST WITH
SOME SUNNY SKIES. ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE FOR
FREEZING HOWEVER...AS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ALREADY WORKED INTO
THOSE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE WHILE COLD AIR
CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST IT WILL
STRENGTHEN AND COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST TO PRODUCE SOME STRONGER WINDS ON WEDNESDAY... THOUGH GUSTS
SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA... ONLY IN THE 20 TO 30
MPH RANGE. IT WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER THOUGH AS TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE TO RISE OUT OF THE 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A WARMING
TREND TO COMMENCE ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A WARM FRONT WILL FORM
PRIMARILY TO OUR WEST... BUT COULD EXTEND EASTWARD INTO NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY AND AID IN THE PRODUCTION
OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA ON FRIDAY THOUGH MOST OF THE
FORCING STAYS TO THE NORTH. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THEIR WARMEST LEVELS OF THE SEASON SO
FAR. READINGS IN THE 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 60 DEGREE
READINGS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BEFORE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY BUT WILL STALL
SOMEWHERE OFFSHORE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT UPPER
TROUGH WILL GENERATE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY. NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WOULD BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THIS LOW TRACK... AND THUS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY COULD FALL AS SNOW. IT MAY BE DIFFICULT
TO GET ENOUGH COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. FOR THE
MOST PART THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...AND THUS DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS FOR MOST TERMINALS. GREATEST
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER SHRASN WILL BE AT KLEB AND
KHIE LATE THIS MORNING THRU THE EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST A
BROKEN DECK OF MVFR CIGS TO TRANSITION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. GUSTY SWLY BECOMING WLY WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE
FRONT. THIS WILL PROLONG UPSLOPE SHSN NEAR KHIE INTO TUE.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH STRENGTHENING
NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COULD SEE MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS SHOWERY
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS INTO
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRENGTHENING
OFFSHORE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW
NORTHWEST WINDS TO STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS TO 25 OR 30 KT
ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 300738
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
338 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST TODAY. AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THE FRONT WILL LOITER
NEARBY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY BACK ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WILL
PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. SLY TO SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW SRN NH AND PARTS OF THE INTERIOR OF WRN ME TO WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL. WINDS OFF THE WATER HOWEVER WILL LIKELY KEEP COASTAL
ME BELOW NORMAL.

MORE OR LESS MOISTURE STARVED...QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT...AND BEST
CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 0.1 INCH WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AIR MASS IS DRY ENOUGH THAT MOST PCPN SHOULD FALL AS
SN...THOUGH A MIX WITH RA ACROSS SRN ZONES IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY.

ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY NRN ZONES...THE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT
OF THE WIND MAY HELP TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
GUSTS...NEAR 35-40 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH LOW PRES PULLING N THRU
QUEBEC. WHAT MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE WILL BE FORCED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND RESULT IN AREAS
OF SHSN CONTINUING INTO TUE. A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE FOR NRN ZONES.

ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MORE OR LESS MIXED OVERNIGHT...KEEPING TEMPS ON
THE MILDER SIDE. COLDEST AIR WILL DELAY UNTIL TUE TO ARRIVE...SO
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE ABLE TO CLIMB TOWARDS 40 NEAR THE COAST WITH
SOME SUNNY SKIES. ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE FOR
FREEZING HOWEVER...AS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ALREADY WORKED INTO
THOSE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE WHILE COLD AIR
CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST IT WILL
STRENGTHEN AND COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST TO PRODUCE SOME STRONGER WINDS ON WEDNESDAY... THOUGH GUSTS
SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA... ONLY IN THE 20 TO 30
MPH RANGE. IT WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER THOUGH AS TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE TO RISE OUT OF THE 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A WARMING
TREND TO COMMENCE ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A WARM FRONT WILL FORM
PRIMARILY TO OUR WEST... BUT COULD EXTEND EASTWARD INTO NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY AND AID IN THE PRODUCTION
OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA ON FRIDAY THOUGH MOST OF THE
FORCING STAYS TO THE NORTH. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THEIR WARMEST LEVELS OF THE SEASON SO
FAR. READINGS IN THE 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 60 DEGREE
READINGS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BEFORE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY BUT WILL STALL
SOMEWHERE OFFSHORE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT UPPER
TROUGH WILL GENERATE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY. NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WOULD BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THIS LOW TRACK... AND THUS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY COULD FALL AS SNOW. IT MAY BE DIFFICULT
TO GET ENOUGH COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. FOR THE
MOST PART THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...AND THUS DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS FOR MOST TERMINALS. GREATEST
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER SHRASN WILL BE AT KLEB AND
KHIE LATE THIS MORNING THRU THE EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST A
BROKEN DECK OF MVFR CIGS TO TRANSITION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. GUSTY SWLY BECOMING WLY WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE
FRONT. THIS WILL PROLONG UPSLOPE SHSN NEAR KHIE INTO TUE.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH STRENGTHENING
NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COULD SEE MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS SHOWERY
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS INTO
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRENGTHENING
OFFSHORE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW
NORTHWEST WINDS TO STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS TO 25 OR 30 KT
ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 300738
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
338 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST TODAY. AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THE FRONT WILL LOITER
NEARBY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY BACK ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WILL
PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. SLY TO SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW SRN NH AND PARTS OF THE INTERIOR OF WRN ME TO WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL. WINDS OFF THE WATER HOWEVER WILL LIKELY KEEP COASTAL
ME BELOW NORMAL.

MORE OR LESS MOISTURE STARVED...QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT...AND BEST
CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 0.1 INCH WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AIR MASS IS DRY ENOUGH THAT MOST PCPN SHOULD FALL AS
SN...THOUGH A MIX WITH RA ACROSS SRN ZONES IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY.

ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY NRN ZONES...THE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT
OF THE WIND MAY HELP TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
GUSTS...NEAR 35-40 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH LOW PRES PULLING N THRU
QUEBEC. WHAT MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE WILL BE FORCED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND RESULT IN AREAS
OF SHSN CONTINUING INTO TUE. A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE FOR NRN ZONES.

ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MORE OR LESS MIXED OVERNIGHT...KEEPING TEMPS ON
THE MILDER SIDE. COLDEST AIR WILL DELAY UNTIL TUE TO ARRIVE...SO
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE ABLE TO CLIMB TOWARDS 40 NEAR THE COAST WITH
SOME SUNNY SKIES. ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE FOR
FREEZING HOWEVER...AS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ALREADY WORKED INTO
THOSE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE WHILE COLD AIR
CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST IT WILL
STRENGTHEN AND COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST TO PRODUCE SOME STRONGER WINDS ON WEDNESDAY... THOUGH GUSTS
SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA... ONLY IN THE 20 TO 30
MPH RANGE. IT WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER THOUGH AS TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE TO RISE OUT OF THE 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A WARMING
TREND TO COMMENCE ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A WARM FRONT WILL FORM
PRIMARILY TO OUR WEST... BUT COULD EXTEND EASTWARD INTO NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY AND AID IN THE PRODUCTION
OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA ON FRIDAY THOUGH MOST OF THE
FORCING STAYS TO THE NORTH. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THEIR WARMEST LEVELS OF THE SEASON SO
FAR. READINGS IN THE 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 60 DEGREE
READINGS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BEFORE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY BUT WILL STALL
SOMEWHERE OFFSHORE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT UPPER
TROUGH WILL GENERATE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY. NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WOULD BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THIS LOW TRACK... AND THUS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY COULD FALL AS SNOW. IT MAY BE DIFFICULT
TO GET ENOUGH COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. FOR THE
MOST PART THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...AND THUS DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS FOR MOST TERMINALS. GREATEST
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER SHRASN WILL BE AT KLEB AND
KHIE LATE THIS MORNING THRU THE EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST A
BROKEN DECK OF MVFR CIGS TO TRANSITION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. GUSTY SWLY BECOMING WLY WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE
FRONT. THIS WILL PROLONG UPSLOPE SHSN NEAR KHIE INTO TUE.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH STRENGTHENING
NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COULD SEE MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS SHOWERY
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS INTO
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRENGTHENING
OFFSHORE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW
NORTHWEST WINDS TO STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS TO 25 OR 30 KT
ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 300738
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
338 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST TODAY. AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THE FRONT WILL LOITER
NEARBY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY BACK ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WILL
PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. SLY TO SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW SRN NH AND PARTS OF THE INTERIOR OF WRN ME TO WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL. WINDS OFF THE WATER HOWEVER WILL LIKELY KEEP COASTAL
ME BELOW NORMAL.

MORE OR LESS MOISTURE STARVED...QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT...AND BEST
CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 0.1 INCH WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AIR MASS IS DRY ENOUGH THAT MOST PCPN SHOULD FALL AS
SN...THOUGH A MIX WITH RA ACROSS SRN ZONES IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY.

ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY NRN ZONES...THE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT
OF THE WIND MAY HELP TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
GUSTS...NEAR 35-40 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH LOW PRES PULLING N THRU
QUEBEC. WHAT MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE WILL BE FORCED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND RESULT IN AREAS
OF SHSN CONTINUING INTO TUE. A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE FOR NRN ZONES.

ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MORE OR LESS MIXED OVERNIGHT...KEEPING TEMPS ON
THE MILDER SIDE. COLDEST AIR WILL DELAY UNTIL TUE TO ARRIVE...SO
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE ABLE TO CLIMB TOWARDS 40 NEAR THE COAST WITH
SOME SUNNY SKIES. ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE FOR
FREEZING HOWEVER...AS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ALREADY WORKED INTO
THOSE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE WHILE COLD AIR
CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST IT WILL
STRENGTHEN AND COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST TO PRODUCE SOME STRONGER WINDS ON WEDNESDAY... THOUGH GUSTS
SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA... ONLY IN THE 20 TO 30
MPH RANGE. IT WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER THOUGH AS TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE TO RISE OUT OF THE 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A WARMING
TREND TO COMMENCE ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A WARM FRONT WILL FORM
PRIMARILY TO OUR WEST... BUT COULD EXTEND EASTWARD INTO NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY AND AID IN THE PRODUCTION
OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA ON FRIDAY THOUGH MOST OF THE
FORCING STAYS TO THE NORTH. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THEIR WARMEST LEVELS OF THE SEASON SO
FAR. READINGS IN THE 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 60 DEGREE
READINGS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BEFORE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY BUT WILL STALL
SOMEWHERE OFFSHORE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT UPPER
TROUGH WILL GENERATE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY. NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WOULD BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THIS LOW TRACK... AND THUS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY COULD FALL AS SNOW. IT MAY BE DIFFICULT
TO GET ENOUGH COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. FOR THE
MOST PART THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...AND THUS DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS FOR MOST TERMINALS. GREATEST
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER SHRASN WILL BE AT KLEB AND
KHIE LATE THIS MORNING THRU THE EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST A
BROKEN DECK OF MVFR CIGS TO TRANSITION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. GUSTY SWLY BECOMING WLY WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE
FRONT. THIS WILL PROLONG UPSLOPE SHSN NEAR KHIE INTO TUE.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH STRENGTHENING
NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COULD SEE MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS SHOWERY
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS INTO
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRENGTHENING
OFFSHORE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW
NORTHWEST WINDS TO STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS TO 25 OR 30 KT
ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 300738
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
338 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST TODAY. AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THE FRONT WILL LOITER
NEARBY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY BACK ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WILL
PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. SLY TO SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW SRN NH AND PARTS OF THE INTERIOR OF WRN ME TO WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL. WINDS OFF THE WATER HOWEVER WILL LIKELY KEEP COASTAL
ME BELOW NORMAL.

MORE OR LESS MOISTURE STARVED...QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT...AND BEST
CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 0.1 INCH WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AIR MASS IS DRY ENOUGH THAT MOST PCPN SHOULD FALL AS
SN...THOUGH A MIX WITH RA ACROSS SRN ZONES IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY.

ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY NRN ZONES...THE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT
OF THE WIND MAY HELP TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
GUSTS...NEAR 35-40 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH LOW PRES PULLING N THRU
QUEBEC. WHAT MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE WILL BE FORCED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND RESULT IN AREAS
OF SHSN CONTINUING INTO TUE. A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE FOR NRN ZONES.

ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MORE OR LESS MIXED OVERNIGHT...KEEPING TEMPS ON
THE MILDER SIDE. COLDEST AIR WILL DELAY UNTIL TUE TO ARRIVE...SO
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE ABLE TO CLIMB TOWARDS 40 NEAR THE COAST WITH
SOME SUNNY SKIES. ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE FOR
FREEZING HOWEVER...AS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ALREADY WORKED INTO
THOSE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE WHILE COLD AIR
CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST IT WILL
STRENGTHEN AND COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST TO PRODUCE SOME STRONGER WINDS ON WEDNESDAY... THOUGH GUSTS
SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA... ONLY IN THE 20 TO 30
MPH RANGE. IT WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER THOUGH AS TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE TO RISE OUT OF THE 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A WARMING
TREND TO COMMENCE ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A WARM FRONT WILL FORM
PRIMARILY TO OUR WEST... BUT COULD EXTEND EASTWARD INTO NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY AND AID IN THE PRODUCTION
OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA ON FRIDAY THOUGH MOST OF THE
FORCING STAYS TO THE NORTH. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THEIR WARMEST LEVELS OF THE SEASON SO
FAR. READINGS IN THE 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 60 DEGREE
READINGS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BEFORE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY BUT WILL STALL
SOMEWHERE OFFSHORE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT UPPER
TROUGH WILL GENERATE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY. NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WOULD BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THIS LOW TRACK... AND THUS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY COULD FALL AS SNOW. IT MAY BE DIFFICULT
TO GET ENOUGH COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. FOR THE
MOST PART THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...AND THUS DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS FOR MOST TERMINALS. GREATEST
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER SHRASN WILL BE AT KLEB AND
KHIE LATE THIS MORNING THRU THE EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST A
BROKEN DECK OF MVFR CIGS TO TRANSITION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. GUSTY SWLY BECOMING WLY WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE
FRONT. THIS WILL PROLONG UPSLOPE SHSN NEAR KHIE INTO TUE.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH STRENGTHENING
NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COULD SEE MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS SHOWERY
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS INTO
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRENGTHENING
OFFSHORE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW
NORTHWEST WINDS TO STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS TO 25 OR 30 KT
ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300705
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
305 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY BRINGING A FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT CROSSING ONTARIO AND OHIO DURING THE NIGHT WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY...CROSSING NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER JET WILL BE IN POSITION DURING THIS TIME WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PROVIDE UPPER
VENTING OVERLAID ABOVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE FRONT. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS. A FEW LIGHT ONES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
OVERNIGHT MAY REACH OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD COME ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TRANSITING COLD FRONT.
TIMING WOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID AFTERNOON
EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR SNOW. BUT EXPECTED WARMING IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING SHOULD CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS...MOSTLY
LESS.

PRESSURE FALLS OF 1MB/HR OR MORE LEAD THIS FRONT. EXPECT
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY.
PRESSURES RISE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT AS STRONGLY. BUT COLD
ADVECTION MAY INDUCE MIXING OF 25 KNOT GUSTS TO THE SURFACE AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MIXING INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS...EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

TUESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CLIPPER LOW THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECASTS
FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY WITH
THE ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH. ALL MODELS BRING SOME MEASUREABLE PCPN
INTO CT BY EVENING...THE GFS COVERS AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...AND THE NAM HAS MEASURABLE PCPN EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN MOST PLACES EXCEPT SNOW IN THE
HILLS. TIMING OF THE PCPN WOULD BE AFTER 21Z. WE HAVE SHIFTED
OUR POPS FARTHER NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS REACHING TO ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE BY 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING...SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 29/12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES
WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WITH A
MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO A
FAVOR A CONSENSUS APPROACH UNTIL THESE DETAILS OF THESE SYSTEMS
COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MAJORITY 29/12Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS STORM WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH
ALMOST NO IMPACT AT ALL ON OUR WEATHER. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST AND
FARTHEST NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THAT SAID...WILL TREND THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SINCE THE PASSAGE OF THIS STORM WILL BE AT NIGHT...THAT RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SNOWFALL IF TEMPERATURES LOWER FAST ENOUGH.
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE
IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD THE TRACK BE FARTHER NORTH.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS FOR MOST
OF THE DAY THURSDAY TO REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BREAKS
DOWN.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A FEW WAVES WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...SO DECIDED TO NOT
TRY TO TIME PRECIPITATION TO SPECIFICALLY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND A
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

* SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IT HAS TO WORK WITH. KEPT THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST DRY...FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH 25-30
KNOTS.

TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND RI TOWARD
EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WEST WINDS TRAILING THE
FRONT WILL GUST 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLANDS/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BRIEFLY OVER THE WATERS. LINGERING SMALL CRAFTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...WTB/BELK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300705
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
305 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY BRINGING A FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT CROSSING ONTARIO AND OHIO DURING THE NIGHT WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY...CROSSING NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER JET WILL BE IN POSITION DURING THIS TIME WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PROVIDE UPPER
VENTING OVERLAID ABOVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE FRONT. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS. A FEW LIGHT ONES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
OVERNIGHT MAY REACH OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD COME ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TRANSITING COLD FRONT.
TIMING WOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID AFTERNOON
EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR SNOW. BUT EXPECTED WARMING IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING SHOULD CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS...MOSTLY
LESS.

PRESSURE FALLS OF 1MB/HR OR MORE LEAD THIS FRONT. EXPECT
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY.
PRESSURES RISE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT AS STRONGLY. BUT COLD
ADVECTION MAY INDUCE MIXING OF 25 KNOT GUSTS TO THE SURFACE AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MIXING INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS...EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

TUESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CLIPPER LOW THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECASTS
FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY WITH
THE ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH. ALL MODELS BRING SOME MEASUREABLE PCPN
INTO CT BY EVENING...THE GFS COVERS AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...AND THE NAM HAS MEASURABLE PCPN EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN MOST PLACES EXCEPT SNOW IN THE
HILLS. TIMING OF THE PCPN WOULD BE AFTER 21Z. WE HAVE SHIFTED
OUR POPS FARTHER NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS REACHING TO ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE BY 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING...SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 29/12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES
WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WITH A
MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO A
FAVOR A CONSENSUS APPROACH UNTIL THESE DETAILS OF THESE SYSTEMS
COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MAJORITY 29/12Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS STORM WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH
ALMOST NO IMPACT AT ALL ON OUR WEATHER. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST AND
FARTHEST NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THAT SAID...WILL TREND THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SINCE THE PASSAGE OF THIS STORM WILL BE AT NIGHT...THAT RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SNOWFALL IF TEMPERATURES LOWER FAST ENOUGH.
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE
IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD THE TRACK BE FARTHER NORTH.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS FOR MOST
OF THE DAY THURSDAY TO REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BREAKS
DOWN.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A FEW WAVES WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...SO DECIDED TO NOT
TRY TO TIME PRECIPITATION TO SPECIFICALLY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND A
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

* SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IT HAS TO WORK WITH. KEPT THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST DRY...FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH 25-30
KNOTS.

TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND RI TOWARD
EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WEST WINDS TRAILING THE
FRONT WILL GUST 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLANDS/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BRIEFLY OVER THE WATERS. LINGERING SMALL CRAFTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...WTB/BELK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300705
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
305 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY BRINGING A FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT CROSSING ONTARIO AND OHIO DURING THE NIGHT WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY...CROSSING NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER JET WILL BE IN POSITION DURING THIS TIME WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PROVIDE UPPER
VENTING OVERLAID ABOVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE FRONT. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS. A FEW LIGHT ONES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
OVERNIGHT MAY REACH OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD COME ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TRANSITING COLD FRONT.
TIMING WOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID AFTERNOON
EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR SNOW. BUT EXPECTED WARMING IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING SHOULD CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS...MOSTLY
LESS.

PRESSURE FALLS OF 1MB/HR OR MORE LEAD THIS FRONT. EXPECT
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY.
PRESSURES RISE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT AS STRONGLY. BUT COLD
ADVECTION MAY INDUCE MIXING OF 25 KNOT GUSTS TO THE SURFACE AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MIXING INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS...EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

TUESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CLIPPER LOW THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECASTS
FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY WITH
THE ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH. ALL MODELS BRING SOME MEASUREABLE PCPN
INTO CT BY EVENING...THE GFS COVERS AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...AND THE NAM HAS MEASURABLE PCPN EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN MOST PLACES EXCEPT SNOW IN THE
HILLS. TIMING OF THE PCPN WOULD BE AFTER 21Z. WE HAVE SHIFTED
OUR POPS FARTHER NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS REACHING TO ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE BY 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING...SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 29/12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES
WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WITH A
MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO A
FAVOR A CONSENSUS APPROACH UNTIL THESE DETAILS OF THESE SYSTEMS
COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MAJORITY 29/12Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS STORM WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH
ALMOST NO IMPACT AT ALL ON OUR WEATHER. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST AND
FARTHEST NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THAT SAID...WILL TREND THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SINCE THE PASSAGE OF THIS STORM WILL BE AT NIGHT...THAT RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SNOWFALL IF TEMPERATURES LOWER FAST ENOUGH.
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE
IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD THE TRACK BE FARTHER NORTH.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS FOR MOST
OF THE DAY THURSDAY TO REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BREAKS
DOWN.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A FEW WAVES WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...SO DECIDED TO NOT
TRY TO TIME PRECIPITATION TO SPECIFICALLY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND A
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

* SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IT HAS TO WORK WITH. KEPT THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST DRY...FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH 25-30
KNOTS.

TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND RI TOWARD
EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WEST WINDS TRAILING THE
FRONT WILL GUST 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLANDS/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BRIEFLY OVER THE WATERS. LINGERING SMALL CRAFTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...WTB/BELK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300703
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
303 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY BRINGING A FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

COLD FRONT CROSSING ONTARIO AND OHIO DURING THE NIGHT WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY...CROSSING NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER JET WILL BE IN POSITION DURING THIS TIME WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PROVIDE UPPER
VENTING OVERLAID ABOVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE FRONT. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS. A FEW LIGHT ONES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
OVERNIGHT MAY REACH OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD COME ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TRANSITING COLD FRONT.
TIMING WOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID AFTERNOON
EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR SNOW. BUT EXPECTED WARMING IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING SHOULD CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS...MOSTLY
LESS.

PRESSURE FALLS OF 1MB/HR OR MORE LEAD THIS FRONT. EXPECT
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY.
PRESSURES RISE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT AS STRONGLY. BUT COLD
ADVECTION MAY INDUCE MIXING OF 25 KNOT GUSTS TO THE SURFACE AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MIXING INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS...EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

TUESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CLIPPER LOW THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECASTS
FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY WITH
THE ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH. ALL MODELS BRING SOME MEASUREABLE PCPN
INTO CT BY EVENING...THE GFS COVERS AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...AND THE NAM HAS MEASURABLE PCPN EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN MOST PLACES EXCEPT SNOW IN THE
HILLS. TIMING OF THE PCPN WOULD BE AFTER 21Z. WE HAVE SHIFTED
OUR POPS FARTHER NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS REACHING TO ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE BY 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING...SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 29/12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES
WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WITH A
MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO A
FAVOR A CONSENSUS APPROACH UNTIL THESE DETAILS OF THESE SYSTEMS
COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MAJORITY 29/12Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS STORM WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH
ALMOST NO IMPACT AT ALL ON OUR WEATHER. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST AND
FARTHEST NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THAT SAID...WILL TREND THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SINCE THE PASSAGE OF THIS STORM WILL BE AT NIGHT...THAT RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SNOWFALL IF TEMPERATURES LOWER FAST ENOUGH.
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE
IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD THE TRACK BE FARTHER NORTH.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS FOR MOST
OF THE DAY THURSDAY TO REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BREAKS
DOWN.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A FEW WAVES WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...SO DECIDED TO NOT
TRY TO TIME PRECIPITATION TO SPECIFICALLY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND A
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

* SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IT HAS TO WORK WITH. KEPT THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST DRY...FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH 25-30
KNOTS.

TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND RI TOWARD
EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WEST WINDS TRAILING THE
FRONT WILL GUST 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLANDS/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BRIEFLY OVER THE WATERS. LINGERING SMALL CRAFTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...BELK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300703
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
303 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY BRINGING A FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

COLD FRONT CROSSING ONTARIO AND OHIO DURING THE NIGHT WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY...CROSSING NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER JET WILL BE IN POSITION DURING THIS TIME WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PROVIDE UPPER
VENTING OVERLAID ABOVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE FRONT. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS. A FEW LIGHT ONES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
OVERNIGHT MAY REACH OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD COME ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TRANSITING COLD FRONT.
TIMING WOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID AFTERNOON
EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR SNOW. BUT EXPECTED WARMING IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING SHOULD CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS...MOSTLY
LESS.

PRESSURE FALLS OF 1MB/HR OR MORE LEAD THIS FRONT. EXPECT
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY.
PRESSURES RISE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT AS STRONGLY. BUT COLD
ADVECTION MAY INDUCE MIXING OF 25 KNOT GUSTS TO THE SURFACE AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MIXING INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS...EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

TUESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CLIPPER LOW THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECASTS
FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY WITH
THE ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH. ALL MODELS BRING SOME MEASUREABLE PCPN
INTO CT BY EVENING...THE GFS COVERS AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...AND THE NAM HAS MEASURABLE PCPN EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN MOST PLACES EXCEPT SNOW IN THE
HILLS. TIMING OF THE PCPN WOULD BE AFTER 21Z. WE HAVE SHIFTED
OUR POPS FARTHER NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS REACHING TO ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE BY 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING...SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 29/12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES
WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WITH A
MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO A
FAVOR A CONSENSUS APPROACH UNTIL THESE DETAILS OF THESE SYSTEMS
COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MAJORITY 29/12Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS STORM WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH
ALMOST NO IMPACT AT ALL ON OUR WEATHER. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST AND
FARTHEST NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THAT SAID...WILL TREND THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SINCE THE PASSAGE OF THIS STORM WILL BE AT NIGHT...THAT RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SNOWFALL IF TEMPERATURES LOWER FAST ENOUGH.
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE
IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD THE TRACK BE FARTHER NORTH.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS FOR MOST
OF THE DAY THURSDAY TO REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BREAKS
DOWN.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A FEW WAVES WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...SO DECIDED TO NOT
TRY TO TIME PRECIPITATION TO SPECIFICALLY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND A
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

* SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IT HAS TO WORK WITH. KEPT THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST DRY...FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH 25-30
KNOTS.

TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND RI TOWARD
EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WEST WINDS TRAILING THE
FRONT WILL GUST 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLANDS/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BRIEFLY OVER THE WATERS. LINGERING SMALL CRAFTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...BELK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300703
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
303 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY BRINGING A FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

COLD FRONT CROSSING ONTARIO AND OHIO DURING THE NIGHT WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY...CROSSING NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER JET WILL BE IN POSITION DURING THIS TIME WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PROVIDE UPPER
VENTING OVERLAID ABOVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE FRONT. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS. A FEW LIGHT ONES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
OVERNIGHT MAY REACH OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD COME ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TRANSITING COLD FRONT.
TIMING WOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID AFTERNOON
EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR SNOW. BUT EXPECTED WARMING IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING SHOULD CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS...MOSTLY
LESS.

PRESSURE FALLS OF 1MB/HR OR MORE LEAD THIS FRONT. EXPECT
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY.
PRESSURES RISE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT AS STRONGLY. BUT COLD
ADVECTION MAY INDUCE MIXING OF 25 KNOT GUSTS TO THE SURFACE AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MIXING INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS...EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

TUESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CLIPPER LOW THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECASTS
FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY WITH
THE ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH. ALL MODELS BRING SOME MEASUREABLE PCPN
INTO CT BY EVENING...THE GFS COVERS AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...AND THE NAM HAS MEASURABLE PCPN EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN MOST PLACES EXCEPT SNOW IN THE
HILLS. TIMING OF THE PCPN WOULD BE AFTER 21Z. WE HAVE SHIFTED
OUR POPS FARTHER NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS REACHING TO ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE BY 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING...SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 29/12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES
WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WITH A
MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO A
FAVOR A CONSENSUS APPROACH UNTIL THESE DETAILS OF THESE SYSTEMS
COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MAJORITY 29/12Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS STORM WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH
ALMOST NO IMPACT AT ALL ON OUR WEATHER. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST AND
FARTHEST NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THAT SAID...WILL TREND THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SINCE THE PASSAGE OF THIS STORM WILL BE AT NIGHT...THAT RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SNOWFALL IF TEMPERATURES LOWER FAST ENOUGH.
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE
IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD THE TRACK BE FARTHER NORTH.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS FOR MOST
OF THE DAY THURSDAY TO REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BREAKS
DOWN.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A FEW WAVES WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...SO DECIDED TO NOT
TRY TO TIME PRECIPITATION TO SPECIFICALLY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND A
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

* SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IT HAS TO WORK WITH. KEPT THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST DRY...FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH 25-30
KNOTS.

TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND RI TOWARD
EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WEST WINDS TRAILING THE
FRONT WILL GUST 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLANDS/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BRIEFLY OVER THE WATERS. LINGERING SMALL CRAFTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...BELK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300703
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
303 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY BRINGING A FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

COLD FRONT CROSSING ONTARIO AND OHIO DURING THE NIGHT WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY...CROSSING NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER JET WILL BE IN POSITION DURING THIS TIME WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PROVIDE UPPER
VENTING OVERLAID ABOVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE FRONT. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS. A FEW LIGHT ONES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
OVERNIGHT MAY REACH OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD COME ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TRANSITING COLD FRONT.
TIMING WOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID AFTERNOON
EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR SNOW. BUT EXPECTED WARMING IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING SHOULD CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS...MOSTLY
LESS.

PRESSURE FALLS OF 1MB/HR OR MORE LEAD THIS FRONT. EXPECT
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY.
PRESSURES RISE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT AS STRONGLY. BUT COLD
ADVECTION MAY INDUCE MIXING OF 25 KNOT GUSTS TO THE SURFACE AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MIXING INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS...EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

TUESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CLIPPER LOW THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECASTS
FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY WITH
THE ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH. ALL MODELS BRING SOME MEASUREABLE PCPN
INTO CT BY EVENING...THE GFS COVERS AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...AND THE NAM HAS MEASURABLE PCPN EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN MOST PLACES EXCEPT SNOW IN THE
HILLS. TIMING OF THE PCPN WOULD BE AFTER 21Z. WE HAVE SHIFTED
OUR POPS FARTHER NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS REACHING TO ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE BY 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING...SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 29/12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES
WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WITH A
MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO A
FAVOR A CONSENSUS APPROACH UNTIL THESE DETAILS OF THESE SYSTEMS
COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MAJORITY 29/12Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS STORM WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH
ALMOST NO IMPACT AT ALL ON OUR WEATHER. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST AND
FARTHEST NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THAT SAID...WILL TREND THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SINCE THE PASSAGE OF THIS STORM WILL BE AT NIGHT...THAT RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SNOWFALL IF TEMPERATURES LOWER FAST ENOUGH.
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE
IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD THE TRACK BE FARTHER NORTH.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS FOR MOST
OF THE DAY THURSDAY TO REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BREAKS
DOWN.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A FEW WAVES WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...SO DECIDED TO NOT
TRY TO TIME PRECIPITATION TO SPECIFICALLY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND A
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

* SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IT HAS TO WORK WITH. KEPT THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST DRY...FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH 25-30
KNOTS.

TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND RI TOWARD
EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WEST WINDS TRAILING THE
FRONT WILL GUST 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLANDS/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BRIEFLY OVER THE WATERS. LINGERING SMALL CRAFTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...BELK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300212
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1012 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT...THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM CANADA
AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRINGING
MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES EAST OF US OVERNIGHT. THAT SHOULD KEEP
THE WEATHER DRY. COLD FRONT AND UPPER TORUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MOVES EAST. CIRRUS ALREADY ENTERING WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. LOWER
CLOUDS IN WESTERN NEW YORK SHOULD REACH THE BERKSHIRES 3-4
AM...PCPN 5-6 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
SHOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND MID TO LATE MORNING IN
THE EAST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALLOW FOR SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BUT EXPECT WARMING DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL
CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH EXCELLENT MIXING IN
PLACE. EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING...SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 29/12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES
WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WITH A
MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO A
FAVOR A CONSENSUS APPROACH UNTIL THESE DETAILS OF THESE SYSTEMS
COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE
WIND...IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MAJORITY 29/12Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS STORM WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH
ALMOST NO IMPACT AT ALL ON OUR WEATHER. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST AND
FARTHEST NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THAT SAID...WILL TREND THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SINCE THE PASSAGE OF THIS STORM WILL BE AT NIGHT...THAT RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SNOWFALL IF TEMPERATURES LOWER FAST ENOUGH.
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE
IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD THE TRACK BE FARTHER NORTH.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS FOR MOST
OF THE DAY THURSDAY TO REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BREAKS
DOWN.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A FEW WAVES WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...SO DECIDED TO NOT
TRY TO TIME PRECIPITATION TO SPECIFICALLY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND A
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

* SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IT HAS TO WORK WITH. KEPT THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST DRY...FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH
25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS FOR A COMBINATION
OF WINDS AND SEAS. SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL
PICK UP IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING BUT MAY
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY...REACHING NEAR 30 KT. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300212
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1012 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT...THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM CANADA
AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRINGING
MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES EAST OF US OVERNIGHT. THAT SHOULD KEEP
THE WEATHER DRY. COLD FRONT AND UPPER TORUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MOVES EAST. CIRRUS ALREADY ENTERING WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. LOWER
CLOUDS IN WESTERN NEW YORK SHOULD REACH THE BERKSHIRES 3-4
AM...PCPN 5-6 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
SHOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND MID TO LATE MORNING IN
THE EAST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALLOW FOR SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BUT EXPECT WARMING DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL
CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH EXCELLENT MIXING IN
PLACE. EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING...SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 29/12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES
WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WITH A
MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO A
FAVOR A CONSENSUS APPROACH UNTIL THESE DETAILS OF THESE SYSTEMS
COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE
WIND...IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MAJORITY 29/12Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS STORM WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH
ALMOST NO IMPACT AT ALL ON OUR WEATHER. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST AND
FARTHEST NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THAT SAID...WILL TREND THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SINCE THE PASSAGE OF THIS STORM WILL BE AT NIGHT...THAT RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SNOWFALL IF TEMPERATURES LOWER FAST ENOUGH.
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE
IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD THE TRACK BE FARTHER NORTH.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS FOR MOST
OF THE DAY THURSDAY TO REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BREAKS
DOWN.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A FEW WAVES WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...SO DECIDED TO NOT
TRY TO TIME PRECIPITATION TO SPECIFICALLY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND A
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

* SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IT HAS TO WORK WITH. KEPT THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST DRY...FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH
25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS FOR A COMBINATION
OF WINDS AND SEAS. SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL
PICK UP IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING BUT MAY
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY...REACHING NEAR 30 KT. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KGYX 300055
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
855 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
850 PM UPDATE...JUST MINOR CHANGES MADE TO SKY COVER AND
TEMPERATURES BASED ON METSAT AND CURRENT OBS/TRENDS.

6 PM UPDATE...TEMPS WERE STILL RUNNING QUITE WARM ACROSS THE
AREA...SO INCREASED THEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD PUT THEM BACK ON TRACK. ALSO...HELD OFF
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING AS ALL THE MESO MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PICK UP AROUND
SUNRISE ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MORE MID MORNING FOR MAINE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
AND THE CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY.
LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
THE DAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH AND RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES.
EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IN SOUTHERN AREAS BUT AN
INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S.

COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MONDAY EVENING. WILL SEE A
CONTINUING CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS UPSLOPE WINDS
KICK IN. ELSEWHERE LOOKING FOR PARTIAL CLEARING AND JUST A CHANCE
OF AN EVENING SNOW SHOWER. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S TO
NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER A LONG WINTER OF COLD AIR ITS NICE TO SEE THE CORE OF THE
HEMISPHERIC COLD AIR HAS RETREATED TO BAFFIN ISLAND. THIS LEAVES
THE OVERALL PATTERN AS FAIRLY ZONAL THROUGH NORTH AMERICA...
ALTHOUGH WE STILL HANG ONTO A BIT OF OUR EAST COAST TROUGH. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW OVER THE NEXT
WEEK AS THE GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES.

AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, TUESDAY WILL SEE
US RETURN TO OUR FAVORITE POST-FRONTAL PATTERN WITH UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS. THE APRIL SUN WILL MAKE THIS DAY CONSIDERABLY MILDER THAN
THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST BUT NEVERTHELESS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 AT THE SEACOAST AND 30S
INLAND. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE MORNING... BUT THE
GENERALLY WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MEAN WINDS WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY A WEAK SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH... BRINING SOME
CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK COUNTY MAINE. FROM THERE
WE TRY TO BRING IN SOME WEAK RIDGING OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE CRESTS TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING US SOME WARM AIR WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 50S
SOUTH TO 40S NORTH UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE
TIMING...WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT OR AS
LATE AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT FRIDAY IS LIKELY
TO BE A WET DAY AS A LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTH AND DRAGS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
00Z UPDATE...COLD FRONT THAT IS PUSHING INTO THE
AREA WILL BRING SOME LOWER CEILING DECKS STARTING MONDAY MORNING.
IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT COULD
BRING VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS DOWN A BIT LOWER...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD NOT DROP BELOW MVFR...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WHERE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS. THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY EVENING AND
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR...HOWEVER UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VFR TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR VSBY/CIGS ON
MONDAY....IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
DECREASING TO MVFR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S WILL BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL
GO THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS WILL DECREASE TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KISTNER
AVIATION...KISTNER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 300055
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
855 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
850 PM UPDATE...JUST MINOR CHANGES MADE TO SKY COVER AND
TEMPERATURES BASED ON METSAT AND CURRENT OBS/TRENDS.

6 PM UPDATE...TEMPS WERE STILL RUNNING QUITE WARM ACROSS THE
AREA...SO INCREASED THEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD PUT THEM BACK ON TRACK. ALSO...HELD OFF
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING AS ALL THE MESO MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PICK UP AROUND
SUNRISE ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MORE MID MORNING FOR MAINE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
AND THE CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY.
LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
THE DAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH AND RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES.
EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IN SOUTHERN AREAS BUT AN
INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S.

COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MONDAY EVENING. WILL SEE A
CONTINUING CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS UPSLOPE WINDS
KICK IN. ELSEWHERE LOOKING FOR PARTIAL CLEARING AND JUST A CHANCE
OF AN EVENING SNOW SHOWER. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S TO
NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER A LONG WINTER OF COLD AIR ITS NICE TO SEE THE CORE OF THE
HEMISPHERIC COLD AIR HAS RETREATED TO BAFFIN ISLAND. THIS LEAVES
THE OVERALL PATTERN AS FAIRLY ZONAL THROUGH NORTH AMERICA...
ALTHOUGH WE STILL HANG ONTO A BIT OF OUR EAST COAST TROUGH. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW OVER THE NEXT
WEEK AS THE GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES.

AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, TUESDAY WILL SEE
US RETURN TO OUR FAVORITE POST-FRONTAL PATTERN WITH UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS. THE APRIL SUN WILL MAKE THIS DAY CONSIDERABLY MILDER THAN
THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST BUT NEVERTHELESS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 AT THE SEACOAST AND 30S
INLAND. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE MORNING... BUT THE
GENERALLY WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MEAN WINDS WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY A WEAK SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH... BRINING SOME
CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK COUNTY MAINE. FROM THERE
WE TRY TO BRING IN SOME WEAK RIDGING OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE CRESTS TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING US SOME WARM AIR WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 50S
SOUTH TO 40S NORTH UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE
TIMING...WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT OR AS
LATE AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT FRIDAY IS LIKELY
TO BE A WET DAY AS A LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTH AND DRAGS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
00Z UPDATE...COLD FRONT THAT IS PUSHING INTO THE
AREA WILL BRING SOME LOWER CEILING DECKS STARTING MONDAY MORNING.
IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT COULD
BRING VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS DOWN A BIT LOWER...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD NOT DROP BELOW MVFR...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WHERE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS. THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY EVENING AND
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR...HOWEVER UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VFR TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR VSBY/CIGS ON
MONDAY....IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
DECREASING TO MVFR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S WILL BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL
GO THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS WILL DECREASE TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KISTNER
AVIATION...KISTNER



000
FXUS61 KGYX 300055
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
855 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
850 PM UPDATE...JUST MINOR CHANGES MADE TO SKY COVER AND
TEMPERATURES BASED ON METSAT AND CURRENT OBS/TRENDS.

6 PM UPDATE...TEMPS WERE STILL RUNNING QUITE WARM ACROSS THE
AREA...SO INCREASED THEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD PUT THEM BACK ON TRACK. ALSO...HELD OFF
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING AS ALL THE MESO MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PICK UP AROUND
SUNRISE ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MORE MID MORNING FOR MAINE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
AND THE CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY.
LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
THE DAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH AND RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES.
EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IN SOUTHERN AREAS BUT AN
INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S.

COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MONDAY EVENING. WILL SEE A
CONTINUING CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS UPSLOPE WINDS
KICK IN. ELSEWHERE LOOKING FOR PARTIAL CLEARING AND JUST A CHANCE
OF AN EVENING SNOW SHOWER. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S TO
NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER A LONG WINTER OF COLD AIR ITS NICE TO SEE THE CORE OF THE
HEMISPHERIC COLD AIR HAS RETREATED TO BAFFIN ISLAND. THIS LEAVES
THE OVERALL PATTERN AS FAIRLY ZONAL THROUGH NORTH AMERICA...
ALTHOUGH WE STILL HANG ONTO A BIT OF OUR EAST COAST TROUGH. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW OVER THE NEXT
WEEK AS THE GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES.

AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, TUESDAY WILL SEE
US RETURN TO OUR FAVORITE POST-FRONTAL PATTERN WITH UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS. THE APRIL SUN WILL MAKE THIS DAY CONSIDERABLY MILDER THAN
THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST BUT NEVERTHELESS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 AT THE SEACOAST AND 30S
INLAND. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE MORNING... BUT THE
GENERALLY WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MEAN WINDS WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY A WEAK SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH... BRINING SOME
CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK COUNTY MAINE. FROM THERE
WE TRY TO BRING IN SOME WEAK RIDGING OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE CRESTS TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING US SOME WARM AIR WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 50S
SOUTH TO 40S NORTH UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE
TIMING...WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT OR AS
LATE AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT FRIDAY IS LIKELY
TO BE A WET DAY AS A LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTH AND DRAGS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
00Z UPDATE...COLD FRONT THAT IS PUSHING INTO THE
AREA WILL BRING SOME LOWER CEILING DECKS STARTING MONDAY MORNING.
IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT COULD
BRING VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS DOWN A BIT LOWER...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD NOT DROP BELOW MVFR...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WHERE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS. THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY EVENING AND
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR...HOWEVER UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VFR TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR VSBY/CIGS ON
MONDAY....IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
DECREASING TO MVFR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S WILL BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL
GO THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS WILL DECREASE TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KISTNER
AVIATION...KISTNER



000
FXUS61 KGYX 300055
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
855 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
850 PM UPDATE...JUST MINOR CHANGES MADE TO SKY COVER AND
TEMPERATURES BASED ON METSAT AND CURRENT OBS/TRENDS.

6 PM UPDATE...TEMPS WERE STILL RUNNING QUITE WARM ACROSS THE
AREA...SO INCREASED THEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD PUT THEM BACK ON TRACK. ALSO...HELD OFF
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING AS ALL THE MESO MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PICK UP AROUND
SUNRISE ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MORE MID MORNING FOR MAINE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
AND THE CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY.
LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
THE DAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH AND RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES.
EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IN SOUTHERN AREAS BUT AN
INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S.

COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MONDAY EVENING. WILL SEE A
CONTINUING CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS UPSLOPE WINDS
KICK IN. ELSEWHERE LOOKING FOR PARTIAL CLEARING AND JUST A CHANCE
OF AN EVENING SNOW SHOWER. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S TO
NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER A LONG WINTER OF COLD AIR ITS NICE TO SEE THE CORE OF THE
HEMISPHERIC COLD AIR HAS RETREATED TO BAFFIN ISLAND. THIS LEAVES
THE OVERALL PATTERN AS FAIRLY ZONAL THROUGH NORTH AMERICA...
ALTHOUGH WE STILL HANG ONTO A BIT OF OUR EAST COAST TROUGH. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW OVER THE NEXT
WEEK AS THE GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES.

AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, TUESDAY WILL SEE
US RETURN TO OUR FAVORITE POST-FRONTAL PATTERN WITH UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS. THE APRIL SUN WILL MAKE THIS DAY CONSIDERABLY MILDER THAN
THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST BUT NEVERTHELESS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 AT THE SEACOAST AND 30S
INLAND. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE MORNING... BUT THE
GENERALLY WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MEAN WINDS WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY A WEAK SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH... BRINING SOME
CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK COUNTY MAINE. FROM THERE
WE TRY TO BRING IN SOME WEAK RIDGING OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE CRESTS TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING US SOME WARM AIR WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 50S
SOUTH TO 40S NORTH UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE
TIMING...WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT OR AS
LATE AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT FRIDAY IS LIKELY
TO BE A WET DAY AS A LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTH AND DRAGS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
00Z UPDATE...COLD FRONT THAT IS PUSHING INTO THE
AREA WILL BRING SOME LOWER CEILING DECKS STARTING MONDAY MORNING.
IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT COULD
BRING VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS DOWN A BIT LOWER...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD NOT DROP BELOW MVFR...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WHERE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS. THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY EVENING AND
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR...HOWEVER UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VFR TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR VSBY/CIGS ON
MONDAY....IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
DECREASING TO MVFR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S WILL BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL
GO THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS WILL DECREASE TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KISTNER
AVIATION...KISTNER




000
FXUS61 KBOX 292315
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
715 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM
CANADA AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY
BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
715 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES REQUIRED TO FORECAST THIS EVENING. DID TWEAK NEXT
FEW HOURS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY QUIET OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
SHOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND MID TO LATE MORNING IN
THE EAST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALLOW FOR SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BUT EXPECT WARMING DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL
CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH EXCELLENT MIXING IN
PLACE. EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING...SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 29/12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES
WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WITH A
MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO A
FAVOR A CONSENSUS APPROACH UNTIL THESE DETAILS OF THESE SYSTEMS
COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE
WIND...IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MAJORITY 29/12Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS STORM WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH
ALMOST NO IMPACT AT ALL ON OUR WEATHER. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST AND
FARTHEST NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THAT SAID...WILL TREND THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SINCE THE PASSAGE OF THIS STORM WILL BE AT NIGHT...THAT RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SNOWFALL IF TEMPERATURES LOWER FAST ENOUGH.
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE
IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD THE TRACK BE FARTHER NORTH.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS FOR MOST
OF THE DAY THURSDAY TO REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BREAKS
DOWN.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A FEW WAVES WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...SO DECIDED TO NOT
TRY TO TIME PRECIPITATION TO SPECIFICALLY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND A
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

* SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IT HAS TO WORK WITH. KEPT THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST DRY...FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH
25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR A
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL PICK
UP IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING BUT MAY
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY...REACHING NEAR 30 KT. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 292315
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
715 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM
CANADA AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY
BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
715 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES REQUIRED TO FORECAST THIS EVENING. DID TWEAK NEXT
FEW HOURS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY QUIET OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
SHOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND MID TO LATE MORNING IN
THE EAST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALLOW FOR SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BUT EXPECT WARMING DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL
CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH EXCELLENT MIXING IN
PLACE. EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING...SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 29/12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES
WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WITH A
MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO A
FAVOR A CONSENSUS APPROACH UNTIL THESE DETAILS OF THESE SYSTEMS
COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE
WIND...IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MAJORITY 29/12Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS STORM WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH
ALMOST NO IMPACT AT ALL ON OUR WEATHER. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST AND
FARTHEST NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THAT SAID...WILL TREND THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SINCE THE PASSAGE OF THIS STORM WILL BE AT NIGHT...THAT RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SNOWFALL IF TEMPERATURES LOWER FAST ENOUGH.
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE
IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD THE TRACK BE FARTHER NORTH.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS FOR MOST
OF THE DAY THURSDAY TO REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BREAKS
DOWN.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A FEW WAVES WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...SO DECIDED TO NOT
TRY TO TIME PRECIPITATION TO SPECIFICALLY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND A
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

* SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IT HAS TO WORK WITH. KEPT THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST DRY...FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH
25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR A
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL PICK
UP IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING BUT MAY
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY...REACHING NEAR 30 KT. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 292315
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
715 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM
CANADA AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY
BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
715 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES REQUIRED TO FORECAST THIS EVENING. DID TWEAK NEXT
FEW HOURS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY QUIET OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
SHOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND MID TO LATE MORNING IN
THE EAST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALLOW FOR SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BUT EXPECT WARMING DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL
CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH EXCELLENT MIXING IN
PLACE. EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING...SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 29/12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES
WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WITH A
MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO A
FAVOR A CONSENSUS APPROACH UNTIL THESE DETAILS OF THESE SYSTEMS
COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE
WIND...IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MAJORITY 29/12Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS STORM WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH
ALMOST NO IMPACT AT ALL ON OUR WEATHER. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST AND
FARTHEST NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THAT SAID...WILL TREND THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SINCE THE PASSAGE OF THIS STORM WILL BE AT NIGHT...THAT RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SNOWFALL IF TEMPERATURES LOWER FAST ENOUGH.
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE
IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD THE TRACK BE FARTHER NORTH.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS FOR MOST
OF THE DAY THURSDAY TO REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BREAKS
DOWN.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A FEW WAVES WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...SO DECIDED TO NOT
TRY TO TIME PRECIPITATION TO SPECIFICALLY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND A
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

* SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IT HAS TO WORK WITH. KEPT THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST DRY...FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH
25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR A
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL PICK
UP IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING BUT MAY
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY...REACHING NEAR 30 KT. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 292315
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
715 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM
CANADA AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY
BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
715 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES REQUIRED TO FORECAST THIS EVENING. DID TWEAK NEXT
FEW HOURS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY QUIET OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
SHOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND MID TO LATE MORNING IN
THE EAST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALLOW FOR SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BUT EXPECT WARMING DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL
CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH EXCELLENT MIXING IN
PLACE. EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING...SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 29/12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES
WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WITH A
MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO A
FAVOR A CONSENSUS APPROACH UNTIL THESE DETAILS OF THESE SYSTEMS
COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE
WIND...IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MAJORITY 29/12Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS STORM WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH
ALMOST NO IMPACT AT ALL ON OUR WEATHER. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST AND
FARTHEST NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THAT SAID...WILL TREND THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SINCE THE PASSAGE OF THIS STORM WILL BE AT NIGHT...THAT RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SNOWFALL IF TEMPERATURES LOWER FAST ENOUGH.
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE
IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD THE TRACK BE FARTHER NORTH.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS FOR MOST
OF THE DAY THURSDAY TO REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BREAKS
DOWN.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A FEW WAVES WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...SO DECIDED TO NOT
TRY TO TIME PRECIPITATION TO SPECIFICALLY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND A
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

* SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IT HAS TO WORK WITH. KEPT THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST DRY...FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH
25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR A
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL PICK
UP IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING BUT MAY
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY...REACHING NEAR 30 KT. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 292315
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
715 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM
CANADA AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY
BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
715 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES REQUIRED TO FORECAST THIS EVENING. DID TWEAK NEXT
FEW HOURS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY QUIET OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
SHOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND MID TO LATE MORNING IN
THE EAST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALLOW FOR SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BUT EXPECT WARMING DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL
CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH EXCELLENT MIXING IN
PLACE. EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING...SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 29/12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES
WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WITH A
MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO A
FAVOR A CONSENSUS APPROACH UNTIL THESE DETAILS OF THESE SYSTEMS
COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE
WIND...IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MAJORITY 29/12Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS STORM WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH
ALMOST NO IMPACT AT ALL ON OUR WEATHER. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST AND
FARTHEST NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THAT SAID...WILL TREND THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SINCE THE PASSAGE OF THIS STORM WILL BE AT NIGHT...THAT RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SNOWFALL IF TEMPERATURES LOWER FAST ENOUGH.
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE
IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD THE TRACK BE FARTHER NORTH.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS FOR MOST
OF THE DAY THURSDAY TO REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BREAKS
DOWN.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A FEW WAVES WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...SO DECIDED TO NOT
TRY TO TIME PRECIPITATION TO SPECIFICALLY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND A
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

* SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IT HAS TO WORK WITH. KEPT THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST DRY...FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH
25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR A
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL PICK
UP IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING BUT MAY
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY...REACHING NEAR 30 KT. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 292315
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
715 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM
CANADA AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY
BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
715 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES REQUIRED TO FORECAST THIS EVENING. DID TWEAK NEXT
FEW HOURS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY QUIET OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
SHOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND MID TO LATE MORNING IN
THE EAST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALLOW FOR SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BUT EXPECT WARMING DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL
CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH EXCELLENT MIXING IN
PLACE. EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING...SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 29/12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES
WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WITH A
MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO A
FAVOR A CONSENSUS APPROACH UNTIL THESE DETAILS OF THESE SYSTEMS
COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE
WIND...IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MAJORITY 29/12Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS STORM WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH
ALMOST NO IMPACT AT ALL ON OUR WEATHER. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST AND
FARTHEST NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THAT SAID...WILL TREND THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SINCE THE PASSAGE OF THIS STORM WILL BE AT NIGHT...THAT RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SNOWFALL IF TEMPERATURES LOWER FAST ENOUGH.
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE
IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD THE TRACK BE FARTHER NORTH.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS FOR MOST
OF THE DAY THURSDAY TO REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BREAKS
DOWN.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A FEW WAVES WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...SO DECIDED TO NOT
TRY TO TIME PRECIPITATION TO SPECIFICALLY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND A
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

* SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IT HAS TO WORK WITH. KEPT THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST DRY...FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH
25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR A
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL PICK
UP IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING BUT MAY
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY...REACHING NEAR 30 KT. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KGYX 292200
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
600 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...TEMPS WERE STILL RUNNING QUITE WARM ACROSS THE
AREA...SO INCREASED THEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD PUT THEM BACK ON TRACK. ALSO...HELD OFF
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING AS ALL THE MESO MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PICK UP AROUND
SUNRISE ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MORE MID MORNING FOR MAINE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
AND THE CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY.
LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
THE DAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH AND RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES.
EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IN SOUTHERN AREAS BUT AN
INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S.

COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MONDAY EVENING. WILL SEE A
CONTINUING CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS UPSLOPE WINDS
KICK IN. ELSEWHERE LOOKING FOR PARTIAL CLEARING AND JUST A CHANCE
OF AN EVENING SNOW SHOWER. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S TO
NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER A LONG WINTER OF COLD AIR ITS NICE TO SEE THE CORE OF THE
HEMISPHERIC COLD AIR HAS RETREATED TO BAFFIN ISLAND. THIS LEAVES
THE OVERALL PATTERN AS FAIRLY ZONAL THROUGH NORTH AMERICA...
ALTHOUGH WE STILL HANG ONTO A BIT OF OUR EAST COAST TROUGH. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW OVER THE NEXT
WEEK AS THE GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES.

AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, TUESDAY WILL SEE
US RETURN TO OUR FAVORITE POST-FRONTAL PATTERN WITH UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS. THE APRIL SUN WILL MAKE THIS DAY CONSIDERABLY MILDER THAN
THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST BUT NEVERTHELESS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 AT THE SEACOAST AND 30S
INLAND. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE MORNING... BUT THE
GENERALLY WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MEAN WINDS WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY A WEAK SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH... BRINING SOME
CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK COUNTY MAINE. FROM THERE
WE TRY TO BRING IN SOME WEAK RIDGING OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE CRESTS TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING US SOME WARM AIR WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 50S
SOUTH TO 40S NORTH UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE
TIMING...WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT OR AS
LATE AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT FRIDAY IS LIKELY
TO BE A WET DAY AS A LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTH AND DRAGS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR VSBY/CIGS ON
MONDAY....IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
DECREASING TO MVFR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S WILL BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL
GO THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS WILL DECREASE TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KISTNER



000
FXUS61 KGYX 292200
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
600 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...TEMPS WERE STILL RUNNING QUITE WARM ACROSS THE
AREA...SO INCREASED THEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD PUT THEM BACK ON TRACK. ALSO...HELD OFF
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING AS ALL THE MESO MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PICK UP AROUND
SUNRISE ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MORE MID MORNING FOR MAINE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
AND THE CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY.
LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
THE DAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH AND RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES.
EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IN SOUTHERN AREAS BUT AN
INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S.

COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MONDAY EVENING. WILL SEE A
CONTINUING CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS UPSLOPE WINDS
KICK IN. ELSEWHERE LOOKING FOR PARTIAL CLEARING AND JUST A CHANCE
OF AN EVENING SNOW SHOWER. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S TO
NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER A LONG WINTER OF COLD AIR ITS NICE TO SEE THE CORE OF THE
HEMISPHERIC COLD AIR HAS RETREATED TO BAFFIN ISLAND. THIS LEAVES
THE OVERALL PATTERN AS FAIRLY ZONAL THROUGH NORTH AMERICA...
ALTHOUGH WE STILL HANG ONTO A BIT OF OUR EAST COAST TROUGH. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW OVER THE NEXT
WEEK AS THE GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES.

AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, TUESDAY WILL SEE
US RETURN TO OUR FAVORITE POST-FRONTAL PATTERN WITH UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS. THE APRIL SUN WILL MAKE THIS DAY CONSIDERABLY MILDER THAN
THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST BUT NEVERTHELESS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 AT THE SEACOAST AND 30S
INLAND. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE MORNING... BUT THE
GENERALLY WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MEAN WINDS WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY A WEAK SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH... BRINING SOME
CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK COUNTY MAINE. FROM THERE
WE TRY TO BRING IN SOME WEAK RIDGING OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE CRESTS TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING US SOME WARM AIR WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 50S
SOUTH TO 40S NORTH UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE
TIMING...WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT OR AS
LATE AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT FRIDAY IS LIKELY
TO BE A WET DAY AS A LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTH AND DRAGS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR VSBY/CIGS ON
MONDAY....IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
DECREASING TO MVFR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S WILL BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL
GO THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS WILL DECREASE TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KISTNER




000
FXUS61 KBOX 292026
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
426 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM
CANADA AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY
BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
215 PM UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES HAS BROUGHT SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S. SHOULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 40 BY THE END OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY QUIET OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
SHOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND MID TO LATE MORNING IN
THE EAST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALLOW FOR SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BUT EXPECT WARMING DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL
CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH EXCELLENT MIXING IN
PLACE. EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING...SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 29/12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES
WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WITH A
MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO A
FAVOR A CONSENSUS APPROACH UNTIL THESE DETAILS OF THESE SYSTEMS
COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE
WIND...IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MAJORITY 29/12Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS STORM WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH
ALMOST NO IMPACT AT ALL ON OUR WEATHER. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST AND
FARTHEST NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THAT SAID...WILL TREND THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SINCE THE PASSAGE OF THIS STORM WILL BE AT NIGHT...THAT RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SNOWFALL IF TEMPERATURES LOWER FAST ENOUGH.
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE
IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD THE TRACK BE FARTHER NORTH.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS FOR MOST
OF THE DAY THURSDAY TO REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BREAKS
DOWN.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A FEW WAVES WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...SO DECIDED TO NOT
TRY TO TIME PRECIPITATION TO SPECIFICALLY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND A
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

* SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IT HAS TO WORK WITH. KEPT THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST DRY...FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SEA BREEZE AT BOSTON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH
25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR A
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL PICK
UP IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING BUT MAY
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY...REACHING NEAR 30 KT. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 292026
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
426 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM
CANADA AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY
BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
215 PM UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES HAS BROUGHT SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S. SHOULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 40 BY THE END OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY QUIET OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
SHOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND MID TO LATE MORNING IN
THE EAST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALLOW FOR SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BUT EXPECT WARMING DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL
CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH EXCELLENT MIXING IN
PLACE. EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING...SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 29/12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES
WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WITH A
MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO A
FAVOR A CONSENSUS APPROACH UNTIL THESE DETAILS OF THESE SYSTEMS
COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE
WIND...IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MAJORITY 29/12Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS STORM WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH
ALMOST NO IMPACT AT ALL ON OUR WEATHER. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST AND
FARTHEST NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THAT SAID...WILL TREND THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SINCE THE PASSAGE OF THIS STORM WILL BE AT NIGHT...THAT RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SNOWFALL IF TEMPERATURES LOWER FAST ENOUGH.
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE
IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD THE TRACK BE FARTHER NORTH.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS FOR MOST
OF THE DAY THURSDAY TO REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BREAKS
DOWN.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A FEW WAVES WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...SO DECIDED TO NOT
TRY TO TIME PRECIPITATION TO SPECIFICALLY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND A
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

* SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IT HAS TO WORK WITH. KEPT THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST DRY...FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SEA BREEZE AT BOSTON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH
25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR A
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL PICK
UP IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING BUT MAY
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY...REACHING NEAR 30 KT. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291944
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
344 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM
CANADA AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORM MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
215 PM UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES HAS BROUGHT SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S. SHOULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 40 BY THE END OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY QUIET OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
SHOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND MID TO LATE MORNING IN
THE EAST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALLOW FOR SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BUT EXPECT WARMING DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL
CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH EXCELLENT MIXING IN
PLACE. EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW
ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM AND
AGAIN ON THE THURS/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
FARTHEST NORTH ON THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING TUESDAY NIGHT COMPARED
TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THREW THE NAM OUT AND DID A BLEND OF
THE GFS/CMC WHICH GIVES A GOOD RUN IN THE MIDDLE. FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE EC BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS
AND HAS SLOWED DOWN BY 24 HOURS. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TOWARDS WPC AS THERE IS TO MUCH UNCERTAIN STILL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS LONG TERM
EXPECT BY THE THURS INTO SAT TIMEFRAME WHERE A BRIEF WARM-UP...MAY
OCCUR.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CAA TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT...NEAR 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST EC HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE GFS IN PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH IMPACTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER THE NAM DRAGS THE CLIPPER RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE CMC IS CLOSE TO THE EC ENSEMBLES. OVERALL
BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING
PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE
A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC.. APPEARS THERE
COULD BE A FEW WAVES THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT SO DECIDED TO
BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALLOWING FROM SPOTS TO FINALLY
GET ABOUT 60F. TEMPS WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
SAT OR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SEA BREEZE AT BOSTON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH
25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR A
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL PICK
UP IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING BUT MAY
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...DUNTEN/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291944
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
344 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM
CANADA AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORM MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
215 PM UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES HAS BROUGHT SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S. SHOULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 40 BY THE END OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY QUIET OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
SHOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND MID TO LATE MORNING IN
THE EAST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALLOW FOR SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BUT EXPECT WARMING DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL
CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH EXCELLENT MIXING IN
PLACE. EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW
ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM AND
AGAIN ON THE THURS/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
FARTHEST NORTH ON THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING TUESDAY NIGHT COMPARED
TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THREW THE NAM OUT AND DID A BLEND OF
THE GFS/CMC WHICH GIVES A GOOD RUN IN THE MIDDLE. FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE EC BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS
AND HAS SLOWED DOWN BY 24 HOURS. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TOWARDS WPC AS THERE IS TO MUCH UNCERTAIN STILL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS LONG TERM
EXPECT BY THE THURS INTO SAT TIMEFRAME WHERE A BRIEF WARM-UP...MAY
OCCUR.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CAA TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT...NEAR 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST EC HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE GFS IN PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH IMPACTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER THE NAM DRAGS THE CLIPPER RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE CMC IS CLOSE TO THE EC ENSEMBLES. OVERALL
BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING
PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE
A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC.. APPEARS THERE
COULD BE A FEW WAVES THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT SO DECIDED TO
BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALLOWING FROM SPOTS TO FINALLY
GET ABOUT 60F. TEMPS WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
SAT OR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SEA BREEZE AT BOSTON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH
25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR A
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL PICK
UP IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING BUT MAY
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...DUNTEN/RLG



000
FXUS61 KGYX 291827
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
227 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND THE CHANCE OF A SNOW
SHOWER IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.
EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH
THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
THE DAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH AND RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES.
EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IN SOUTHERN AREAS BUT AN
INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S.

COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MONDAY EVENING. WILL SEE A
CONTINUING CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS UPSLOPE WINDS
KICK IN. ELSEWHERE LOOKING FOR PARTIAL CLEARING AND JUST A CHANCE
OF AN EVENING SNOW SHOWER. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S TO
NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER A LONG WINTER OF COLD AIR ITS NICE TO SEE THE CORE OF THE
HEMISPHERIC COLD AIR HAS RETREATED TO BAFFIN ISLAND. THIS LEAVES
THE OVERALL PATTERN AS FAIRLY ZONAL THROUGH NORTH AMERICA...
ALTHOUGH WE STILL HANG ONTO A BIT OF OUR EAST COAST TROUGH. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW OVER THE NEXT
WEEK AS THE GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES.

AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, TUESDAY WILL SEE
US RETURN TO OUR FAVORITE POST-FRONTAL PATTERN WITH UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS. THE APRIL SUN WILL MAKE THIS DAY CONSIDERABLY MILDER THAN
THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST BUT NEVERTHE LESS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 AT THE SEACOAST AND 30S
INLAND. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE MORNING... BUT THE
GENERALLY WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MEAN WINDS WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY A WEAK SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH... BRINING SOME
CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK COUNTY MAINE. FROM THERE
WE TRY TO BRING IN SOME WEAK RIDGING OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE CRESTS TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING US SOME WARM AIR WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 50S
SOUTH TO 40S NORTH UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE
TIMING...WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT OR AS
LATE AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT FRIDAY IS LIKELY
TO BE A WET DAY AS A LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTH AND DRAGS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR VSBY/CIGS ON
MONDAY....IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
DECREASING TO MVFR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S WILL BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL
GO THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS WILL DECREASE TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AN150>AN154 FROM 4 AM MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 291827
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
227 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND THE CHANCE OF A SNOW
SHOWER IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.
EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH
THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
THE DAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH AND RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES.
EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IN SOUTHERN AREAS BUT AN
INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S.

COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MONDAY EVENING. WILL SEE A
CONTINUING CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS UPSLOPE WINDS
KICK IN. ELSEWHERE LOOKING FOR PARTIAL CLEARING AND JUST A CHANCE
OF AN EVENING SNOW SHOWER. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S TO
NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER A LONG WINTER OF COLD AIR ITS NICE TO SEE THE CORE OF THE
HEMISPHERIC COLD AIR HAS RETREATED TO BAFFIN ISLAND. THIS LEAVES
THE OVERALL PATTERN AS FAIRLY ZONAL THROUGH NORTH AMERICA...
ALTHOUGH WE STILL HANG ONTO A BIT OF OUR EAST COAST TROUGH. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW OVER THE NEXT
WEEK AS THE GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES.

AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, TUESDAY WILL SEE
US RETURN TO OUR FAVORITE POST-FRONTAL PATTERN WITH UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS. THE APRIL SUN WILL MAKE THIS DAY CONSIDERABLY MILDER THAN
THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST BUT NEVERTHE LESS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 AT THE SEACOAST AND 30S
INLAND. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE MORNING... BUT THE
GENERALLY WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MEAN WINDS WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY A WEAK SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH... BRINING SOME
CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK COUNTY MAINE. FROM THERE
WE TRY TO BRING IN SOME WEAK RIDGING OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE CRESTS TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING US SOME WARM AIR WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 50S
SOUTH TO 40S NORTH UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE
TIMING...WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT OR AS
LATE AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT FRIDAY IS LIKELY
TO BE A WET DAY AS A LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTH AND DRAGS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR VSBY/CIGS ON
MONDAY....IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
DECREASING TO MVFR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S WILL BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL
GO THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS WILL DECREASE TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AN150>AN154 FROM 4 AM MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 291827
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
227 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND THE CHANCE OF A SNOW
SHOWER IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.
EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH
THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
THE DAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH AND RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES.
EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IN SOUTHERN AREAS BUT AN
INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S.

COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MONDAY EVENING. WILL SEE A
CONTINUING CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS UPSLOPE WINDS
KICK IN. ELSEWHERE LOOKING FOR PARTIAL CLEARING AND JUST A CHANCE
OF AN EVENING SNOW SHOWER. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S TO
NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER A LONG WINTER OF COLD AIR ITS NICE TO SEE THE CORE OF THE
HEMISPHERIC COLD AIR HAS RETREATED TO BAFFIN ISLAND. THIS LEAVES
THE OVERALL PATTERN AS FAIRLY ZONAL THROUGH NORTH AMERICA...
ALTHOUGH WE STILL HANG ONTO A BIT OF OUR EAST COAST TROUGH. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW OVER THE NEXT
WEEK AS THE GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES.

AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, TUESDAY WILL SEE
US RETURN TO OUR FAVORITE POST-FRONTAL PATTERN WITH UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS. THE APRIL SUN WILL MAKE THIS DAY CONSIDERABLY MILDER THAN
THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST BUT NEVERTHE LESS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 AT THE SEACOAST AND 30S
INLAND. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE MORNING... BUT THE
GENERALLY WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MEAN WINDS WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY A WEAK SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH... BRINING SOME
CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK COUNTY MAINE. FROM THERE
WE TRY TO BRING IN SOME WEAK RIDGING OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE CRESTS TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING US SOME WARM AIR WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 50S
SOUTH TO 40S NORTH UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE
TIMING...WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT OR AS
LATE AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT FRIDAY IS LIKELY
TO BE A WET DAY AS A LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTH AND DRAGS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR VSBY/CIGS ON
MONDAY....IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
DECREASING TO MVFR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S WILL BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL
GO THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS WILL DECREASE TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AN150>AN154 FROM 4 AM MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 291827
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
227 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND THE CHANCE OF A SNOW
SHOWER IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.
EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH
THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
THE DAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH AND RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES.
EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IN SOUTHERN AREAS BUT AN
INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S.

COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MONDAY EVENING. WILL SEE A
CONTINUING CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS UPSLOPE WINDS
KICK IN. ELSEWHERE LOOKING FOR PARTIAL CLEARING AND JUST A CHANCE
OF AN EVENING SNOW SHOWER. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S TO
NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER A LONG WINTER OF COLD AIR ITS NICE TO SEE THE CORE OF THE
HEMISPHERIC COLD AIR HAS RETREATED TO BAFFIN ISLAND. THIS LEAVES
THE OVERALL PATTERN AS FAIRLY ZONAL THROUGH NORTH AMERICA...
ALTHOUGH WE STILL HANG ONTO A BIT OF OUR EAST COAST TROUGH. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW OVER THE NEXT
WEEK AS THE GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES.

AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, TUESDAY WILL SEE
US RETURN TO OUR FAVORITE POST-FRONTAL PATTERN WITH UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS. THE APRIL SUN WILL MAKE THIS DAY CONSIDERABLY MILDER THAN
THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST BUT NEVERTHE LESS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 AT THE SEACOAST AND 30S
INLAND. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE MORNING... BUT THE
GENERALLY WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MEAN WINDS WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY A WEAK SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH... BRINING SOME
CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK COUNTY MAINE. FROM THERE
WE TRY TO BRING IN SOME WEAK RIDGING OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE CRESTS TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING US SOME WARM AIR WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 50S
SOUTH TO 40S NORTH UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE
TIMING...WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT OR AS
LATE AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT FRIDAY IS LIKELY
TO BE A WET DAY AS A LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTH AND DRAGS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR VSBY/CIGS ON
MONDAY....IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
DECREASING TO MVFR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S WILL BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL
GO THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS WILL DECREASE TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AN150>AN154 FROM 4 AM MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291813
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
213 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM
CANADA AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORM MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
215 PM UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES HAS BROUGHT SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S. SHOULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 40 BY THE END OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY QUIET OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
SHOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND MID TO LATE MORNING IN
THE EAST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALLOW FOR SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BUT EXPECT WARMING DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL
CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH EXCELLENT MIXING IN
PLACE. EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW
ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM AND
AGAIN ON THE THURS/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
FARTHEST NORTH ON THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING TUESDAY NIGHT COMPARED
TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THREW THE NAM OUT AND DID A BLEND OF
THE GFS/CMC WHICH GIVES A GOOD RUN IN THE MIDDLE. FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE EC BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS
AND HAS SLOWED DOWN BY 24 HOURS. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TOWARDS WPC AS THERE IS TO MUCH UNCERTAIN STILL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS LONG TERM
EXPECT BY THE THURS INTO SAT TIMEFRAME WHERE A BRIEF WARM-UP...MAY
OCCUR.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CAA TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT...NEAR 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST EC HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE GFS IN PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH IMPACTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER THE NAM DRAGS THE CLIPPER RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE CMC IS CLOSE TO THE EC ENSEMBLES. OVERALL
BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING
PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE
A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC.. APPEARS THERE
COULD BE A FEW WAVES THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT SO DECIDED TO
BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALLOWING FROM SPOTS TO FINALLY
GET ABOUT 60F. TEMPS WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
SAT OR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SEA BREEZE AT BOSTON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH
25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY BRINGING DIMINISHING
WIND. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS
INITIALLY ON THE EXPOSED WATERS AND LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
ON MOST WATERS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD EXPIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE SEAS SUBSIDE.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY...SWINGING ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FREQUENT GUSTS
25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD WITH 5-8 FOOT HEIGHTS POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN AT THAT
TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291813
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
213 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM
CANADA AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORM MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
215 PM UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES HAS BROUGHT SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S. SHOULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 40 BY THE END OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY QUIET OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
SHOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND MID TO LATE MORNING IN
THE EAST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALLOW FOR SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BUT EXPECT WARMING DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL
CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH EXCELLENT MIXING IN
PLACE. EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW
ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM AND
AGAIN ON THE THURS/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
FARTHEST NORTH ON THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING TUESDAY NIGHT COMPARED
TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THREW THE NAM OUT AND DID A BLEND OF
THE GFS/CMC WHICH GIVES A GOOD RUN IN THE MIDDLE. FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE EC BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS
AND HAS SLOWED DOWN BY 24 HOURS. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TOWARDS WPC AS THERE IS TO MUCH UNCERTAIN STILL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS LONG TERM
EXPECT BY THE THURS INTO SAT TIMEFRAME WHERE A BRIEF WARM-UP...MAY
OCCUR.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CAA TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT...NEAR 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST EC HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE GFS IN PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH IMPACTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER THE NAM DRAGS THE CLIPPER RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE CMC IS CLOSE TO THE EC ENSEMBLES. OVERALL
BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING
PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE
A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC.. APPEARS THERE
COULD BE A FEW WAVES THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT SO DECIDED TO
BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALLOWING FROM SPOTS TO FINALLY
GET ABOUT 60F. TEMPS WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
SAT OR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SEA BREEZE AT BOSTON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH
25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY BRINGING DIMINISHING
WIND. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS
INITIALLY ON THE EXPOSED WATERS AND LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
ON MOST WATERS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD EXPIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE SEAS SUBSIDE.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY...SWINGING ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FREQUENT GUSTS
25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD WITH 5-8 FOOT HEIGHTS POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN AT THAT
TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291813
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
213 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM
CANADA AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORM MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
215 PM UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES HAS BROUGHT SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S. SHOULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 40 BY THE END OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY QUIET OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
SHOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND MID TO LATE MORNING IN
THE EAST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALLOW FOR SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BUT EXPECT WARMING DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL
CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH EXCELLENT MIXING IN
PLACE. EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW
ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM AND
AGAIN ON THE THURS/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
FARTHEST NORTH ON THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING TUESDAY NIGHT COMPARED
TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THREW THE NAM OUT AND DID A BLEND OF
THE GFS/CMC WHICH GIVES A GOOD RUN IN THE MIDDLE. FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE EC BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS
AND HAS SLOWED DOWN BY 24 HOURS. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TOWARDS WPC AS THERE IS TO MUCH UNCERTAIN STILL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS LONG TERM
EXPECT BY THE THURS INTO SAT TIMEFRAME WHERE A BRIEF WARM-UP...MAY
OCCUR.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CAA TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT...NEAR 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST EC HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE GFS IN PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH IMPACTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER THE NAM DRAGS THE CLIPPER RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE CMC IS CLOSE TO THE EC ENSEMBLES. OVERALL
BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING
PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE
A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC.. APPEARS THERE
COULD BE A FEW WAVES THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT SO DECIDED TO
BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALLOWING FROM SPOTS TO FINALLY
GET ABOUT 60F. TEMPS WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
SAT OR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SEA BREEZE AT BOSTON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH
25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY BRINGING DIMINISHING
WIND. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS
INITIALLY ON THE EXPOSED WATERS AND LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
ON MOST WATERS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD EXPIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE SEAS SUBSIDE.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY...SWINGING ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FREQUENT GUSTS
25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD WITH 5-8 FOOT HEIGHTS POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN AT THAT
TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291813
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
213 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM
CANADA AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORM MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
215 PM UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES HAS BROUGHT SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S. SHOULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 40 BY THE END OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY QUIET OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
SHOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND MID TO LATE MORNING IN
THE EAST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALLOW FOR SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BUT EXPECT WARMING DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL
CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH EXCELLENT MIXING IN
PLACE. EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW
ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM AND
AGAIN ON THE THURS/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
FARTHEST NORTH ON THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING TUESDAY NIGHT COMPARED
TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THREW THE NAM OUT AND DID A BLEND OF
THE GFS/CMC WHICH GIVES A GOOD RUN IN THE MIDDLE. FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE EC BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS
AND HAS SLOWED DOWN BY 24 HOURS. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TOWARDS WPC AS THERE IS TO MUCH UNCERTAIN STILL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS LONG TERM
EXPECT BY THE THURS INTO SAT TIMEFRAME WHERE A BRIEF WARM-UP...MAY
OCCUR.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CAA TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT...NEAR 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST EC HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE GFS IN PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH IMPACTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER THE NAM DRAGS THE CLIPPER RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE CMC IS CLOSE TO THE EC ENSEMBLES. OVERALL
BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING
PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE
A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC.. APPEARS THERE
COULD BE A FEW WAVES THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT SO DECIDED TO
BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALLOWING FROM SPOTS TO FINALLY
GET ABOUT 60F. TEMPS WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
SAT OR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SEA BREEZE AT BOSTON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH
25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY BRINGING DIMINISHING
WIND. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS
INITIALLY ON THE EXPOSED WATERS AND LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
ON MOST WATERS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD EXPIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE SEAS SUBSIDE.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY...SWINGING ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FREQUENT GUSTS
25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD WITH 5-8 FOOT HEIGHTS POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN AT THAT
TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291813
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
213 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM
CANADA AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORM MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
215 PM UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES HAS BROUGHT SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S. SHOULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 40 BY THE END OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY QUIET OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
SHOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND MID TO LATE MORNING IN
THE EAST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALLOW FOR SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BUT EXPECT WARMING DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL
CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH EXCELLENT MIXING IN
PLACE. EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW
ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM AND
AGAIN ON THE THURS/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
FARTHEST NORTH ON THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING TUESDAY NIGHT COMPARED
TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THREW THE NAM OUT AND DID A BLEND OF
THE GFS/CMC WHICH GIVES A GOOD RUN IN THE MIDDLE. FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE EC BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS
AND HAS SLOWED DOWN BY 24 HOURS. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TOWARDS WPC AS THERE IS TO MUCH UNCERTAIN STILL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS LONG TERM
EXPECT BY THE THURS INTO SAT TIMEFRAME WHERE A BRIEF WARM-UP...MAY
OCCUR.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CAA TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT...NEAR 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST EC HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE GFS IN PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH IMPACTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER THE NAM DRAGS THE CLIPPER RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE CMC IS CLOSE TO THE EC ENSEMBLES. OVERALL
BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING
PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE
A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC.. APPEARS THERE
COULD BE A FEW WAVES THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT SO DECIDED TO
BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALLOWING FROM SPOTS TO FINALLY
GET ABOUT 60F. TEMPS WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
SAT OR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SEA BREEZE AT BOSTON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH
25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY BRINGING DIMINISHING
WIND. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS
INITIALLY ON THE EXPOSED WATERS AND LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
ON MOST WATERS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD EXPIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE SEAS SUBSIDE.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY...SWINGING ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FREQUENT GUSTS
25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD WITH 5-8 FOOT HEIGHTS POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN AT THAT
TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291813
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
213 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM
CANADA AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORM MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
215 PM UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES HAS BROUGHT SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S. SHOULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 40 BY THE END OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY QUIET OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
SHOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND MID TO LATE MORNING IN
THE EAST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALLOW FOR SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BUT EXPECT WARMING DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL
CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH EXCELLENT MIXING IN
PLACE. EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW
ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM AND
AGAIN ON THE THURS/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
FARTHEST NORTH ON THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING TUESDAY NIGHT COMPARED
TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THREW THE NAM OUT AND DID A BLEND OF
THE GFS/CMC WHICH GIVES A GOOD RUN IN THE MIDDLE. FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE EC BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS
AND HAS SLOWED DOWN BY 24 HOURS. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TOWARDS WPC AS THERE IS TO MUCH UNCERTAIN STILL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS LONG TERM
EXPECT BY THE THURS INTO SAT TIMEFRAME WHERE A BRIEF WARM-UP...MAY
OCCUR.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CAA TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT...NEAR 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST EC HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE GFS IN PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH IMPACTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER THE NAM DRAGS THE CLIPPER RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE CMC IS CLOSE TO THE EC ENSEMBLES. OVERALL
BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING
PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE
A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC.. APPEARS THERE
COULD BE A FEW WAVES THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT SO DECIDED TO
BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALLOWING FROM SPOTS TO FINALLY
GET ABOUT 60F. TEMPS WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
SAT OR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SEA BREEZE AT BOSTON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH
25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY BRINGING DIMINISHING
WIND. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS
INITIALLY ON THE EXPOSED WATERS AND LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
ON MOST WATERS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD EXPIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE SEAS SUBSIDE.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY...SWINGING ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FREQUENT GUSTS
25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD WITH 5-8 FOOT HEIGHTS POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN AT THAT
TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KGYX 291530
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1130 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND WILL SET OFF
SCATTERED SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO OUR WEST BRINGS A THREAT FOR RAIN
OR SNOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

15Z UPDATE...
ISSUING QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPS AND DEW POINTS...OTHERWISE NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS BRUSHING NORTHERN ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOOON...EXPECT
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVERHEAD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
540 AM...QUICK UPDATE FOR T/TD JUST TO REFLECT CURRENT TEMPS AND
BETTER CAPTURE THE EARLY MORNING LOWS AND SUBSEQUENT RISE IN TEMPS
THIS MORNING. STILL LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY...BUT ON THE
CHILLY SIDE FOR LATE MARCH.

PREVIOUSLY...LARGE RANGE OF TEMPS EARLY THIS AM AS NW FLOW IS
KEEPING MANY LOCATIONS ON THE COASTAL PLAIN MIXED EARLY THIS AM
WITH READINGS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S...WHILE THE SHELTERED AREAS IN
THE MTNS HAVE DECOUPLED AND ARE IN THE 10-15 F RANGE.

FOR TODAY...LOOK FOR SFC RIDGE TO BUILD IN WITH LIGHT NW FLOW
DIMINISHING THIS MORNING...AND SHIFTING TO SW THIS AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED....WITH SCT CIRRUS OVERHEAD...BUT
BLO NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW 30S N...TO UPPER 30S
S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT...WITH COMPACT 500 MB WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE NRN STREAM. SHOULD SEE SOME MID-
UPPR LVL WAA MOVE THRU THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD
SET OFF A FEW SHSN IN THE MTNS AND CT VLY TOWARD DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY...BUT MOST PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK.

SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING AND
CROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL SEE SOME SHSN IN THE
MTNS...AND SHSN OR SHRA ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. COULD SEE AN INCH
OR SO IN THE MTNS...BUT A COATING AT BEST ELSEWHERE AS TEMPS RISE
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS
THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND SHOWERS END OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME UPSLOPE SHSN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
THE MTNS THOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN
THRU AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BROAD TROF ACROSS THE E
WITH AN ACTIVE NRN STREAM WILL KEEP US YO-YO-ING BETWEEN NEAR
NORMAL AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. ONE COLD SHOT ARRIVES MON
NIGHT...WITH NWLY CAA AND UPSLOPE SHSN LINGERING INTO TUE. A
FOLLOW UP WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL PASS S OF THE AREA TUE...WITH
MAINLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS SRN ZONES. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND RETURN FLOW WILL HELP SOME MORE MILD
AIR WORK BACK NWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITH PLENTY OF SN LEFT AROUND

FORECAST BECOMES MORE LOW CONFIDENCE AFTER THU...AS NWP STRUGGLES
TO CONSISTENTLY HANDLE A STRONGER S/WV TROF EJECTING FROM LARGER
L/WV TROF DROPPING INTO THE WRN CONUS. IN GENERAL LATE IN THE WEEK
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THRU SRN CANADA. INITIALLY WE CAN
EXPECT SOME MILDER AIR AHEAD OF THAT...BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THRU THE REGION. THE TIMING OF THAT FEATURE IS MORE LOW
CONFIDENCE THAN THE EVOLUTION AT THIS TIME. KICKER S/WV TROF
DROPPING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRES MAY TRY AND INTERACT
WITH LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE EAST COAST. WHETHER
RESULTING CYCLOGENESIS CAN TAKE PLACE BEFORE SLIPPING TOO FAR E TO
RESULT IN MUCH PCPN REMAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION. GIVEN THE ECMWF
SEEMING PENCHANT TO OVERDEVELOP SYSTEMS IN THE LONGER TIME
RANGES...I FAVOR THE FLATTER GFS SOLUTION...BUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT. SHRA AND SHN COULD BRING
CONDS DOWN TO MVFR AT TIMES MON MORNING...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...UPSLOPE SHSN NEAR KHIE MAY KEEP LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
GOING INTO EARLY TUE BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR. HIGH PRES WILL
CONTROL THE AREA THRU MIDWEEK...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. SCA
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO TUE BEFORE HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE WEEK
MAY TRY AND BRING WINDS AND SEAS BACK CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 291530
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1130 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND WILL SET OFF
SCATTERED SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO OUR WEST BRINGS A THREAT FOR RAIN
OR SNOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

15Z UPDATE...
ISSUING QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPS AND DEW POINTS...OTHERWISE NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS BRUSHING NORTHERN ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOOON...EXPECT
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVERHEAD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
540 AM...QUICK UPDATE FOR T/TD JUST TO REFLECT CURRENT TEMPS AND
BETTER CAPTURE THE EARLY MORNING LOWS AND SUBSEQUENT RISE IN TEMPS
THIS MORNING. STILL LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY...BUT ON THE
CHILLY SIDE FOR LATE MARCH.

PREVIOUSLY...LARGE RANGE OF TEMPS EARLY THIS AM AS NW FLOW IS
KEEPING MANY LOCATIONS ON THE COASTAL PLAIN MIXED EARLY THIS AM
WITH READINGS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S...WHILE THE SHELTERED AREAS IN
THE MTNS HAVE DECOUPLED AND ARE IN THE 10-15 F RANGE.

FOR TODAY...LOOK FOR SFC RIDGE TO BUILD IN WITH LIGHT NW FLOW
DIMINISHING THIS MORNING...AND SHIFTING TO SW THIS AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED....WITH SCT CIRRUS OVERHEAD...BUT
BLO NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW 30S N...TO UPPER 30S
S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT...WITH COMPACT 500 MB WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE NRN STREAM. SHOULD SEE SOME MID-
UPPR LVL WAA MOVE THRU THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD
SET OFF A FEW SHSN IN THE MTNS AND CT VLY TOWARD DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY...BUT MOST PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK.

SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING AND
CROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL SEE SOME SHSN IN THE
MTNS...AND SHSN OR SHRA ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. COULD SEE AN INCH
OR SO IN THE MTNS...BUT A COATING AT BEST ELSEWHERE AS TEMPS RISE
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS
THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND SHOWERS END OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME UPSLOPE SHSN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
THE MTNS THOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN
THRU AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BROAD TROF ACROSS THE E
WITH AN ACTIVE NRN STREAM WILL KEEP US YO-YO-ING BETWEEN NEAR
NORMAL AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. ONE COLD SHOT ARRIVES MON
NIGHT...WITH NWLY CAA AND UPSLOPE SHSN LINGERING INTO TUE. A
FOLLOW UP WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL PASS S OF THE AREA TUE...WITH
MAINLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS SRN ZONES. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND RETURN FLOW WILL HELP SOME MORE MILD
AIR WORK BACK NWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITH PLENTY OF SN LEFT AROUND

FORECAST BECOMES MORE LOW CONFIDENCE AFTER THU...AS NWP STRUGGLES
TO CONSISTENTLY HANDLE A STRONGER S/WV TROF EJECTING FROM LARGER
L/WV TROF DROPPING INTO THE WRN CONUS. IN GENERAL LATE IN THE WEEK
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THRU SRN CANADA. INITIALLY WE CAN
EXPECT SOME MILDER AIR AHEAD OF THAT...BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THRU THE REGION. THE TIMING OF THAT FEATURE IS MORE LOW
CONFIDENCE THAN THE EVOLUTION AT THIS TIME. KICKER S/WV TROF
DROPPING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRES MAY TRY AND INTERACT
WITH LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE EAST COAST. WHETHER
RESULTING CYCLOGENESIS CAN TAKE PLACE BEFORE SLIPPING TOO FAR E TO
RESULT IN MUCH PCPN REMAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION. GIVEN THE ECMWF
SEEMING PENCHANT TO OVERDEVELOP SYSTEMS IN THE LONGER TIME
RANGES...I FAVOR THE FLATTER GFS SOLUTION...BUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT. SHRA AND SHN COULD BRING
CONDS DOWN TO MVFR AT TIMES MON MORNING...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...UPSLOPE SHSN NEAR KHIE MAY KEEP LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
GOING INTO EARLY TUE BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR. HIGH PRES WILL
CONTROL THE AREA THRU MIDWEEK...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. SCA
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO TUE BEFORE HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE WEEK
MAY TRY AND BRING WINDS AND SEAS BACK CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291358
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
958 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA TODAY BRINGING DRY
WEATHER. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND CROSSES NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY. FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR.
A FEW CLOUDS LINGER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW
TO REBOUND WITH VALUES STILL IN THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS BUT OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

TODAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE EASTERN USA. COULD BE SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS BUT THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT
MID TO LATE MORNING. COLD TEMPS ALOFT THIS MORNING SHOULD MODERATE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIXING TO 925 MB WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND THEN SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET MOVES IN TOWARD SUNRISE. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND SWINGS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE COLUMN EXTENDS UP TO 600
MB WITH ABOUT 10 MB/HR OF LIFT.

EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BASED ON UPPER
JET...SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND
MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE EAST. THE COLD FROPA WOULD BE AROUND
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES MIGHT ALLOW SNOW INITIALLY BUT EXPECT WARMING
DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW
ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM AND
AGAIN ON THE THURS/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
FARTHEST NORTH ON THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING TUESDAY NIGHT COMPARED
TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THREW THE NAM OUT AND DID A BLEND OF
THE GFS/CMC WHICH GIVES A GOOD RUN IN THE MIDDLE. FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE EC BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS
AND HAS SLOWED DOWN BY 24 HOURS. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TOWARDS WPC AS THERE IS TO MUCH UNCERTAIN STILL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS LONG TERM
EXPECT BY THE THURS INTO SAT TIMEFRAME WHERE A BRIEF WARM-UP...MAY
OCCUR.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CAA TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT...NEAR 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST EC HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE GFS IN PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH IMPACTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER THE NAM DRAGS THE CLIPPER RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE CMC IS CLOSE TO THE EC ENSEMBLES. OVERALL
BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING
PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE
A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC.. APPEARS THERE
COULD BE A FEW WAVES THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT SO DECIDED TO
BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALLOWING FROM SPOTS TO FINALLY
GET ABOUT 60F. TEMPS WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
SAT OR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS SWITCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY EVENING
HOURS.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LINGERING MVFR WILL INCREASE TO VFR.
GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY BRINGING DIMINISHING
WIND. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS
INITIALLY ON THE EXPOSED WATERS AND LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
ON MOST WATERS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD EXPIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE SEAS SUBSIDE.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY...SWINGING ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FREQUENT GUSTS
25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD WITH 5-8 FOOT HEIGHTS POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN AT THAT
TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-
     235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291358
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
958 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA TODAY BRINGING DRY
WEATHER. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND CROSSES NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY. FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR.
A FEW CLOUDS LINGER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW
TO REBOUND WITH VALUES STILL IN THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS BUT OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

TODAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE EASTERN USA. COULD BE SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS BUT THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT
MID TO LATE MORNING. COLD TEMPS ALOFT THIS MORNING SHOULD MODERATE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIXING TO 925 MB WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND THEN SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET MOVES IN TOWARD SUNRISE. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND SWINGS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE COLUMN EXTENDS UP TO 600
MB WITH ABOUT 10 MB/HR OF LIFT.

EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BASED ON UPPER
JET...SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND
MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE EAST. THE COLD FROPA WOULD BE AROUND
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES MIGHT ALLOW SNOW INITIALLY BUT EXPECT WARMING
DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW
ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM AND
AGAIN ON THE THURS/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
FARTHEST NORTH ON THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING TUESDAY NIGHT COMPARED
TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THREW THE NAM OUT AND DID A BLEND OF
THE GFS/CMC WHICH GIVES A GOOD RUN IN THE MIDDLE. FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE EC BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS
AND HAS SLOWED DOWN BY 24 HOURS. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TOWARDS WPC AS THERE IS TO MUCH UNCERTAIN STILL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS LONG TERM
EXPECT BY THE THURS INTO SAT TIMEFRAME WHERE A BRIEF WARM-UP...MAY
OCCUR.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CAA TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT...NEAR 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST EC HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE GFS IN PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH IMPACTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER THE NAM DRAGS THE CLIPPER RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE CMC IS CLOSE TO THE EC ENSEMBLES. OVERALL
BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING
PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE
A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC.. APPEARS THERE
COULD BE A FEW WAVES THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT SO DECIDED TO
BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALLOWING FROM SPOTS TO FINALLY
GET ABOUT 60F. TEMPS WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
SAT OR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS SWITCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY EVENING
HOURS.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LINGERING MVFR WILL INCREASE TO VFR.
GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY BRINGING DIMINISHING
WIND. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS
INITIALLY ON THE EXPOSED WATERS AND LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
ON MOST WATERS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD EXPIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE SEAS SUBSIDE.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY...SWINGING ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FREQUENT GUSTS
25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD WITH 5-8 FOOT HEIGHTS POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN AT THAT
TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-
     235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291358
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
958 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA TODAY BRINGING DRY
WEATHER. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND CROSSES NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY. FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR.
A FEW CLOUDS LINGER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW
TO REBOUND WITH VALUES STILL IN THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS BUT OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

TODAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE EASTERN USA. COULD BE SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS BUT THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT
MID TO LATE MORNING. COLD TEMPS ALOFT THIS MORNING SHOULD MODERATE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIXING TO 925 MB WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND THEN SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET MOVES IN TOWARD SUNRISE. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND SWINGS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE COLUMN EXTENDS UP TO 600
MB WITH ABOUT 10 MB/HR OF LIFT.

EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BASED ON UPPER
JET...SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND
MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE EAST. THE COLD FROPA WOULD BE AROUND
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES MIGHT ALLOW SNOW INITIALLY BUT EXPECT WARMING
DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW
ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM AND
AGAIN ON THE THURS/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
FARTHEST NORTH ON THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING TUESDAY NIGHT COMPARED
TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THREW THE NAM OUT AND DID A BLEND OF
THE GFS/CMC WHICH GIVES A GOOD RUN IN THE MIDDLE. FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE EC BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS
AND HAS SLOWED DOWN BY 24 HOURS. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TOWARDS WPC AS THERE IS TO MUCH UNCERTAIN STILL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS LONG TERM
EXPECT BY THE THURS INTO SAT TIMEFRAME WHERE A BRIEF WARM-UP...MAY
OCCUR.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CAA TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT...NEAR 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST EC HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE GFS IN PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH IMPACTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER THE NAM DRAGS THE CLIPPER RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE CMC IS CLOSE TO THE EC ENSEMBLES. OVERALL
BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING
PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE
A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC.. APPEARS THERE
COULD BE A FEW WAVES THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT SO DECIDED TO
BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALLOWING FROM SPOTS TO FINALLY
GET ABOUT 60F. TEMPS WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
SAT OR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS SWITCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY EVENING
HOURS.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LINGERING MVFR WILL INCREASE TO VFR.
GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY BRINGING DIMINISHING
WIND. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS
INITIALLY ON THE EXPOSED WATERS AND LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
ON MOST WATERS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD EXPIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE SEAS SUBSIDE.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY...SWINGING ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FREQUENT GUSTS
25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD WITH 5-8 FOOT HEIGHTS POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN AT THAT
TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-
     235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291358
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
958 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA TODAY BRINGING DRY
WEATHER. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND CROSSES NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY. FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR.
A FEW CLOUDS LINGER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW
TO REBOUND WITH VALUES STILL IN THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS BUT OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

TODAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE EASTERN USA. COULD BE SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS BUT THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT
MID TO LATE MORNING. COLD TEMPS ALOFT THIS MORNING SHOULD MODERATE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIXING TO 925 MB WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND THEN SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET MOVES IN TOWARD SUNRISE. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND SWINGS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE COLUMN EXTENDS UP TO 600
MB WITH ABOUT 10 MB/HR OF LIFT.

EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BASED ON UPPER
JET...SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND
MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE EAST. THE COLD FROPA WOULD BE AROUND
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES MIGHT ALLOW SNOW INITIALLY BUT EXPECT WARMING
DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW
ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM AND
AGAIN ON THE THURS/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
FARTHEST NORTH ON THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING TUESDAY NIGHT COMPARED
TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THREW THE NAM OUT AND DID A BLEND OF
THE GFS/CMC WHICH GIVES A GOOD RUN IN THE MIDDLE. FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE EC BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS
AND HAS SLOWED DOWN BY 24 HOURS. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TOWARDS WPC AS THERE IS TO MUCH UNCERTAIN STILL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS LONG TERM
EXPECT BY THE THURS INTO SAT TIMEFRAME WHERE A BRIEF WARM-UP...MAY
OCCUR.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CAA TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT...NEAR 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST EC HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE GFS IN PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH IMPACTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER THE NAM DRAGS THE CLIPPER RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE CMC IS CLOSE TO THE EC ENSEMBLES. OVERALL
BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING
PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE
A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC.. APPEARS THERE
COULD BE A FEW WAVES THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT SO DECIDED TO
BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALLOWING FROM SPOTS TO FINALLY
GET ABOUT 60F. TEMPS WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
SAT OR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS SWITCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY EVENING
HOURS.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LINGERING MVFR WILL INCREASE TO VFR.
GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY BRINGING DIMINISHING
WIND. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS
INITIALLY ON THE EXPOSED WATERS AND LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
ON MOST WATERS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD EXPIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE SEAS SUBSIDE.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY...SWINGING ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FREQUENT GUSTS
25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD WITH 5-8 FOOT HEIGHTS POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN AT THAT
TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-
     235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



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