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000
FXUS61 KBOX 042312
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
712 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SCATTERED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. BECOMING MORE HUMID TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND MORE GENERALLY
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY. BECOMING DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND MOVE OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. A FEW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS IN
UPSTATE NEW YORK SHOULD RUN INTO AN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WELL BEFORE REACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAY JUST
SEE SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES PARTIAL CLEARING CONTINUING TO CAPE AND ISLANDS THIS
EVENING. MASS OF LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER NY STATE AND PA
APPEARS TO BE ERODING ON THE NE SIDE. WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT
BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROF AND SURFACE WAVE CROSSING GEORGES
BANK BUT NOT ENOUGH RAIN FELL TO COME CLOSE TO SATURATING LOWER
LAYERS OF ATMOSPHERE. THUS...IT SEEMS AT THIS TIME UNLIKELY THAT
ANY STRATUS WILL FORM GIVEN NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BE TRAPPED.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS MAY TEND TO BE FROM N OR NW MOST
LOCATIONS EXCEPT MAY BECOME LOCALLY OFFSHORE AS LIGHT LAND BREEZE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER THAN FORECAST AND SO HAVE
TWEAKED DOWNWARD A TAD...ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FOR TONIGHT...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA. UPPER SHORTWAVE SWINGS
OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH THE BEST DYNAMICAL SUPPORT MOVING OFFSHORE
EARLY. EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND FOR ANY REMAINING SHOWERS AS
THEY MOVE OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY A CLEARING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DEW POINTS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE 50S...THIS SHOULD ALLOW MIN SFC
TEMPS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS BUILDS EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.
CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRY AIR ABOVE 800 MB...AND A MOIST LAYER
AT 800-850 MB. MIXING SHOULD REACH ABOVE 850 MB. THIS SUGGESTS
SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND DISSIPATING SUNDAY
EVENING. TEMPERTURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT
MAX SURFACE TEMPS OF 80-85.

FAIR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEW POINTS RISE A LITTLE TO AROUND 60. EXPECT MIN SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THIS MAY SUPPORT PATCHES OF FOG
DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * WARM FRONT MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST TUE
 * LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAIN POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON WED

OVERVIEW...SEVERAL PLAYERS INFLUENCE THE WEATHER PATTERN AFFECTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THIS COMING WEEK. OUR AREA WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT STRONG EASTWARD MOVING TROUGH ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA AND EJECTING FROM CLOSED LOW SLOWLY APPROACHING CA.
AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...H50 HEIGHTS ARE RELATIVELY
HIGH...BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE LARGE SCALE FLOW IS CHARACTERIZED
BY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SUSCEPTIBILITY FOR TROUGHING ACROSS
THE E CENTRAL CONUS. MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS ON THE
MID WEEK PERIOD WHEN A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH A HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OR PWAT ENVIRONMENT MAY SET THE STAGE FOR
CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAIN BANDS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL PROBABLY FEATURE RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE TO CHALLENGE OF RESOLVING SHORT WAVE TROFS
IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THAT FAR OUT. ALSO...AS NOTED IN THE PRIOR
FORECAST DISCUSSION...NEW ENGLAND MAY AT SOME POINT BY NEXT
WEEKEND OR A LITTLE BEYOND BE SITUATED ON THE PERIPERY OF A RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CONUS AND BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY MCS
ACTIVITY ON THAT PERIPHERY.

DETAILS...

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRY CONDITIONS AS MODELS AGREE UPON
SHORT WAVE RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. H85 TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS COMBINED WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE SUPPORT CURRENT FORECASTS
OF TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE TROF AND WARM FRONT USHER IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
AND MUCH HIGHER PWATS. WILL INDICATE CHANCE POPS ROUGHLY W OF AN
AFN-ORH-IJD LINE ON TUE WHERE K INDICES RISE TO ABOVE 30 FOR A
TIME AND SUGGESTIVE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS. AIR MASS LOOKS
DRIER AND MORE STABLE FURTHER EAST WHERE WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OR LESS POPS. IN DEFERENCE TO SOME INSTABILITY NOTED ON THE
LATEST GFS...WILL INDICATE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUE NIGHT NEAR
THE VT AND NH BORDERS.

WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A CONCERN OF ONE OR BANDS OF SIGNIFICANT TO EXCESSIVE
RAFL SETTING UP AS COLD FRONT DEACCELERATES ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWATS
OVER 2 INCHES. MODEL CONSENSUS ALSO INDICATES K INDICES IN THE MID 30S.
ISOBARS BECOME BAGGY AT THE SURFACE AS A WEAK WAVE ATTEMPTS TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND THE H70 AND
H50 FLOWS ARE PARALLEL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS EVEN
A HINT OF DIVERGENCE WITH THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS. ALL OF THIS IN
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY
TRAINING OF CELLS. THE INSTABILIY AND WIND SHEAR LOOK QUITE MODEST AND
SO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW. THE SIGNAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY/EXCESSIVE
RAIN LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH...HOWEVER...TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE CHANGED POSITIONS FROM 24 HOURS AGO WITH
THE GFS HANGING RAFL OVER THE AREA FOR A TIME WITH A WAVE WHEREAS
THE ECMWF IS NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE. FOR THE POPS HAVE GONE WITH A
MODEL BLEND WITH A SLIGHT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS WHICH SEEMS TO
HAVE BEEN DEMONSTRATING A LITTLE MORE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY THAN
THE ECMWF. ANTICIPATING LOWER DEWPOINTS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE LOWER SINCE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SHORT WAVE TROFS DAYS 6 AND 7 ESPECIALLY IN THE WARM
SEASON. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPS NOT TOO FAR FROM THE LONG TERM
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD WITH
SCT OCCASIONAL BKN MID CLOUDS. SEE ONLY A SLIGHT RISK FOR PATCHES
OF MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND TO
WEST/NORTHWEST TOWARD MORNING.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHES OF IFR IN LATE NIGHT
FOG POSSIBLE IN THE CT VALLEY OF MASSACHUSETTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS W OF AFN-ORH-IJD LINE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH AREAS OF
IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG ALONG THE S COAST. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS.
POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS AS
WELL AS IN FOG PATCHES ALONG THE S COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING TO VFR EXCEPT MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS MAY PERSIST IN SHOWERS AND FOG ALONG SE COASTAL AREAS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR OR BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 PM UPDATE...
CONTINUING WITH PRIOR FORECAST. NOTED RECENT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT
IN NW FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRES AND SEAS NOW 5 FEET AT
NANTUCKET SHOALS BUOY. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH HEADLINE FOR NOW
BUT SUSPECT IT MAY BE ABLE TO BE LOWERED SOONER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FOR TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND MOVES OFF SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT FROM EAST TO NORTH AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD A
LITTLE WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.
TIMING ON THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO A LATER START TIME BUT
OTHERWISE THE HEADLINE REMAINS THE SAME.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS WITH LIGHT WIND AND DIMINISHING SWELL. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL END AROUND MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG WITH POCKECTS OF VISIBILITY A MILE
OR LESS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING...MAINLY ALONG SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS. POSSIBLY AREAS OF FOG AGAIN WED NIGHT ALONG THE S COAST.
SCATTERED TSTMS MAY OCCUR LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KBOX 042312
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
712 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SCATTERED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. BECOMING MORE HUMID TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND MORE GENERALLY
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY. BECOMING DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND MOVE OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. A FEW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS IN
UPSTATE NEW YORK SHOULD RUN INTO AN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WELL BEFORE REACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAY JUST
SEE SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES PARTIAL CLEARING CONTINUING TO CAPE AND ISLANDS THIS
EVENING. MASS OF LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER NY STATE AND PA
APPEARS TO BE ERODING ON THE NE SIDE. WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT
BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROF AND SURFACE WAVE CROSSING GEORGES
BANK BUT NOT ENOUGH RAIN FELL TO COME CLOSE TO SATURATING LOWER
LAYERS OF ATMOSPHERE. THUS...IT SEEMS AT THIS TIME UNLIKELY THAT
ANY STRATUS WILL FORM GIVEN NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BE TRAPPED.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS MAY TEND TO BE FROM N OR NW MOST
LOCATIONS EXCEPT MAY BECOME LOCALLY OFFSHORE AS LIGHT LAND BREEZE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER THAN FORECAST AND SO HAVE
TWEAKED DOWNWARD A TAD...ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FOR TONIGHT...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA. UPPER SHORTWAVE SWINGS
OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH THE BEST DYNAMICAL SUPPORT MOVING OFFSHORE
EARLY. EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND FOR ANY REMAINING SHOWERS AS
THEY MOVE OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY A CLEARING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DEW POINTS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE 50S...THIS SHOULD ALLOW MIN SFC
TEMPS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS BUILDS EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.
CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRY AIR ABOVE 800 MB...AND A MOIST LAYER
AT 800-850 MB. MIXING SHOULD REACH ABOVE 850 MB. THIS SUGGESTS
SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND DISSIPATING SUNDAY
EVENING. TEMPERTURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT
MAX SURFACE TEMPS OF 80-85.

FAIR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEW POINTS RISE A LITTLE TO AROUND 60. EXPECT MIN SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THIS MAY SUPPORT PATCHES OF FOG
DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * WARM FRONT MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST TUE
 * LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAIN POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON WED

OVERVIEW...SEVERAL PLAYERS INFLUENCE THE WEATHER PATTERN AFFECTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THIS COMING WEEK. OUR AREA WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT STRONG EASTWARD MOVING TROUGH ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA AND EJECTING FROM CLOSED LOW SLOWLY APPROACHING CA.
AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...H50 HEIGHTS ARE RELATIVELY
HIGH...BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE LARGE SCALE FLOW IS CHARACTERIZED
BY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SUSCEPTIBILITY FOR TROUGHING ACROSS
THE E CENTRAL CONUS. MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS ON THE
MID WEEK PERIOD WHEN A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH A HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OR PWAT ENVIRONMENT MAY SET THE STAGE FOR
CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAIN BANDS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL PROBABLY FEATURE RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE TO CHALLENGE OF RESOLVING SHORT WAVE TROFS
IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THAT FAR OUT. ALSO...AS NOTED IN THE PRIOR
FORECAST DISCUSSION...NEW ENGLAND MAY AT SOME POINT BY NEXT
WEEKEND OR A LITTLE BEYOND BE SITUATED ON THE PERIPERY OF A RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CONUS AND BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY MCS
ACTIVITY ON THAT PERIPHERY.

DETAILS...

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRY CONDITIONS AS MODELS AGREE UPON
SHORT WAVE RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. H85 TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS COMBINED WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE SUPPORT CURRENT FORECASTS
OF TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE TROF AND WARM FRONT USHER IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
AND MUCH HIGHER PWATS. WILL INDICATE CHANCE POPS ROUGHLY W OF AN
AFN-ORH-IJD LINE ON TUE WHERE K INDICES RISE TO ABOVE 30 FOR A
TIME AND SUGGESTIVE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS. AIR MASS LOOKS
DRIER AND MORE STABLE FURTHER EAST WHERE WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OR LESS POPS. IN DEFERENCE TO SOME INSTABILITY NOTED ON THE
LATEST GFS...WILL INDICATE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUE NIGHT NEAR
THE VT AND NH BORDERS.

WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A CONCERN OF ONE OR BANDS OF SIGNIFICANT TO EXCESSIVE
RAFL SETTING UP AS COLD FRONT DEACCELERATES ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWATS
OVER 2 INCHES. MODEL CONSENSUS ALSO INDICATES K INDICES IN THE MID 30S.
ISOBARS BECOME BAGGY AT THE SURFACE AS A WEAK WAVE ATTEMPTS TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND THE H70 AND
H50 FLOWS ARE PARALLEL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS EVEN
A HINT OF DIVERGENCE WITH THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS. ALL OF THIS IN
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY
TRAINING OF CELLS. THE INSTABILIY AND WIND SHEAR LOOK QUITE MODEST AND
SO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW. THE SIGNAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY/EXCESSIVE
RAIN LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH...HOWEVER...TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE CHANGED POSITIONS FROM 24 HOURS AGO WITH
THE GFS HANGING RAFL OVER THE AREA FOR A TIME WITH A WAVE WHEREAS
THE ECMWF IS NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE. FOR THE POPS HAVE GONE WITH A
MODEL BLEND WITH A SLIGHT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS WHICH SEEMS TO
HAVE BEEN DEMONSTRATING A LITTLE MORE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY THAN
THE ECMWF. ANTICIPATING LOWER DEWPOINTS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE LOWER SINCE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SHORT WAVE TROFS DAYS 6 AND 7 ESPECIALLY IN THE WARM
SEASON. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPS NOT TOO FAR FROM THE LONG TERM
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD WITH
SCT OCCASIONAL BKN MID CLOUDS. SEE ONLY A SLIGHT RISK FOR PATCHES
OF MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND TO
WEST/NORTHWEST TOWARD MORNING.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHES OF IFR IN LATE NIGHT
FOG POSSIBLE IN THE CT VALLEY OF MASSACHUSETTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS W OF AFN-ORH-IJD LINE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH AREAS OF
IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG ALONG THE S COAST. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS.
POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS AS
WELL AS IN FOG PATCHES ALONG THE S COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING TO VFR EXCEPT MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS MAY PERSIST IN SHOWERS AND FOG ALONG SE COASTAL AREAS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR OR BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 PM UPDATE...
CONTINUING WITH PRIOR FORECAST. NOTED RECENT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT
IN NW FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRES AND SEAS NOW 5 FEET AT
NANTUCKET SHOALS BUOY. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH HEADLINE FOR NOW
BUT SUSPECT IT MAY BE ABLE TO BE LOWERED SOONER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FOR TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND MOVES OFF SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT FROM EAST TO NORTH AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD A
LITTLE WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.
TIMING ON THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO A LATER START TIME BUT
OTHERWISE THE HEADLINE REMAINS THE SAME.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS WITH LIGHT WIND AND DIMINISHING SWELL. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL END AROUND MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG WITH POCKECTS OF VISIBILITY A MILE
OR LESS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING...MAINLY ALONG SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS. POSSIBLY AREAS OF FOG AGAIN WED NIGHT ALONG THE S COAST.
SCATTERED TSTMS MAY OCCUR LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KBOX 042312
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
712 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SCATTERED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. BECOMING MORE HUMID TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND MORE GENERALLY
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY. BECOMING DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND MOVE OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. A FEW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS IN
UPSTATE NEW YORK SHOULD RUN INTO AN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WELL BEFORE REACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAY JUST
SEE SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES PARTIAL CLEARING CONTINUING TO CAPE AND ISLANDS THIS
EVENING. MASS OF LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER NY STATE AND PA
APPEARS TO BE ERODING ON THE NE SIDE. WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT
BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROF AND SURFACE WAVE CROSSING GEORGES
BANK BUT NOT ENOUGH RAIN FELL TO COME CLOSE TO SATURATING LOWER
LAYERS OF ATMOSPHERE. THUS...IT SEEMS AT THIS TIME UNLIKELY THAT
ANY STRATUS WILL FORM GIVEN NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BE TRAPPED.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS MAY TEND TO BE FROM N OR NW MOST
LOCATIONS EXCEPT MAY BECOME LOCALLY OFFSHORE AS LIGHT LAND BREEZE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER THAN FORECAST AND SO HAVE
TWEAKED DOWNWARD A TAD...ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FOR TONIGHT...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA. UPPER SHORTWAVE SWINGS
OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH THE BEST DYNAMICAL SUPPORT MOVING OFFSHORE
EARLY. EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND FOR ANY REMAINING SHOWERS AS
THEY MOVE OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY A CLEARING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DEW POINTS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE 50S...THIS SHOULD ALLOW MIN SFC
TEMPS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS BUILDS EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.
CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRY AIR ABOVE 800 MB...AND A MOIST LAYER
AT 800-850 MB. MIXING SHOULD REACH ABOVE 850 MB. THIS SUGGESTS
SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND DISSIPATING SUNDAY
EVENING. TEMPERTURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT
MAX SURFACE TEMPS OF 80-85.

FAIR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEW POINTS RISE A LITTLE TO AROUND 60. EXPECT MIN SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THIS MAY SUPPORT PATCHES OF FOG
DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * WARM FRONT MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST TUE
 * LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAIN POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON WED

OVERVIEW...SEVERAL PLAYERS INFLUENCE THE WEATHER PATTERN AFFECTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THIS COMING WEEK. OUR AREA WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT STRONG EASTWARD MOVING TROUGH ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA AND EJECTING FROM CLOSED LOW SLOWLY APPROACHING CA.
AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...H50 HEIGHTS ARE RELATIVELY
HIGH...BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE LARGE SCALE FLOW IS CHARACTERIZED
BY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SUSCEPTIBILITY FOR TROUGHING ACROSS
THE E CENTRAL CONUS. MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS ON THE
MID WEEK PERIOD WHEN A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH A HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OR PWAT ENVIRONMENT MAY SET THE STAGE FOR
CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAIN BANDS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL PROBABLY FEATURE RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE TO CHALLENGE OF RESOLVING SHORT WAVE TROFS
IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THAT FAR OUT. ALSO...AS NOTED IN THE PRIOR
FORECAST DISCUSSION...NEW ENGLAND MAY AT SOME POINT BY NEXT
WEEKEND OR A LITTLE BEYOND BE SITUATED ON THE PERIPERY OF A RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CONUS AND BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY MCS
ACTIVITY ON THAT PERIPHERY.

DETAILS...

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRY CONDITIONS AS MODELS AGREE UPON
SHORT WAVE RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. H85 TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS COMBINED WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE SUPPORT CURRENT FORECASTS
OF TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE TROF AND WARM FRONT USHER IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
AND MUCH HIGHER PWATS. WILL INDICATE CHANCE POPS ROUGHLY W OF AN
AFN-ORH-IJD LINE ON TUE WHERE K INDICES RISE TO ABOVE 30 FOR A
TIME AND SUGGESTIVE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS. AIR MASS LOOKS
DRIER AND MORE STABLE FURTHER EAST WHERE WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OR LESS POPS. IN DEFERENCE TO SOME INSTABILITY NOTED ON THE
LATEST GFS...WILL INDICATE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUE NIGHT NEAR
THE VT AND NH BORDERS.

WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A CONCERN OF ONE OR BANDS OF SIGNIFICANT TO EXCESSIVE
RAFL SETTING UP AS COLD FRONT DEACCELERATES ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWATS
OVER 2 INCHES. MODEL CONSENSUS ALSO INDICATES K INDICES IN THE MID 30S.
ISOBARS BECOME BAGGY AT THE SURFACE AS A WEAK WAVE ATTEMPTS TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND THE H70 AND
H50 FLOWS ARE PARALLEL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS EVEN
A HINT OF DIVERGENCE WITH THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS. ALL OF THIS IN
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY
TRAINING OF CELLS. THE INSTABILIY AND WIND SHEAR LOOK QUITE MODEST AND
SO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW. THE SIGNAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY/EXCESSIVE
RAIN LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH...HOWEVER...TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE CHANGED POSITIONS FROM 24 HOURS AGO WITH
THE GFS HANGING RAFL OVER THE AREA FOR A TIME WITH A WAVE WHEREAS
THE ECMWF IS NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE. FOR THE POPS HAVE GONE WITH A
MODEL BLEND WITH A SLIGHT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS WHICH SEEMS TO
HAVE BEEN DEMONSTRATING A LITTLE MORE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY THAN
THE ECMWF. ANTICIPATING LOWER DEWPOINTS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE LOWER SINCE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SHORT WAVE TROFS DAYS 6 AND 7 ESPECIALLY IN THE WARM
SEASON. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPS NOT TOO FAR FROM THE LONG TERM
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD WITH
SCT OCCASIONAL BKN MID CLOUDS. SEE ONLY A SLIGHT RISK FOR PATCHES
OF MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND TO
WEST/NORTHWEST TOWARD MORNING.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHES OF IFR IN LATE NIGHT
FOG POSSIBLE IN THE CT VALLEY OF MASSACHUSETTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS W OF AFN-ORH-IJD LINE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH AREAS OF
IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG ALONG THE S COAST. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS.
POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS AS
WELL AS IN FOG PATCHES ALONG THE S COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING TO VFR EXCEPT MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS MAY PERSIST IN SHOWERS AND FOG ALONG SE COASTAL AREAS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR OR BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 PM UPDATE...
CONTINUING WITH PRIOR FORECAST. NOTED RECENT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT
IN NW FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRES AND SEAS NOW 5 FEET AT
NANTUCKET SHOALS BUOY. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH HEADLINE FOR NOW
BUT SUSPECT IT MAY BE ABLE TO BE LOWERED SOONER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FOR TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND MOVES OFF SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT FROM EAST TO NORTH AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD A
LITTLE WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.
TIMING ON THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO A LATER START TIME BUT
OTHERWISE THE HEADLINE REMAINS THE SAME.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS WITH LIGHT WIND AND DIMINISHING SWELL. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL END AROUND MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG WITH POCKECTS OF VISIBILITY A MILE
OR LESS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING...MAINLY ALONG SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS. POSSIBLY AREAS OF FOG AGAIN WED NIGHT ALONG THE S COAST.
SCATTERED TSTMS MAY OCCUR LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KBOX 042312
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
712 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SCATTERED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. BECOMING MORE HUMID TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND MORE GENERALLY
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY. BECOMING DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND MOVE OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. A FEW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS IN
UPSTATE NEW YORK SHOULD RUN INTO AN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WELL BEFORE REACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAY JUST
SEE SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES PARTIAL CLEARING CONTINUING TO CAPE AND ISLANDS THIS
EVENING. MASS OF LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER NY STATE AND PA
APPEARS TO BE ERODING ON THE NE SIDE. WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT
BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROF AND SURFACE WAVE CROSSING GEORGES
BANK BUT NOT ENOUGH RAIN FELL TO COME CLOSE TO SATURATING LOWER
LAYERS OF ATMOSPHERE. THUS...IT SEEMS AT THIS TIME UNLIKELY THAT
ANY STRATUS WILL FORM GIVEN NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BE TRAPPED.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS MAY TEND TO BE FROM N OR NW MOST
LOCATIONS EXCEPT MAY BECOME LOCALLY OFFSHORE AS LIGHT LAND BREEZE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER THAN FORECAST AND SO HAVE
TWEAKED DOWNWARD A TAD...ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FOR TONIGHT...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA. UPPER SHORTWAVE SWINGS
OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH THE BEST DYNAMICAL SUPPORT MOVING OFFSHORE
EARLY. EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND FOR ANY REMAINING SHOWERS AS
THEY MOVE OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY A CLEARING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DEW POINTS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE 50S...THIS SHOULD ALLOW MIN SFC
TEMPS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS BUILDS EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.
CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRY AIR ABOVE 800 MB...AND A MOIST LAYER
AT 800-850 MB. MIXING SHOULD REACH ABOVE 850 MB. THIS SUGGESTS
SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND DISSIPATING SUNDAY
EVENING. TEMPERTURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT
MAX SURFACE TEMPS OF 80-85.

FAIR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEW POINTS RISE A LITTLE TO AROUND 60. EXPECT MIN SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THIS MAY SUPPORT PATCHES OF FOG
DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * WARM FRONT MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST TUE
 * LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAIN POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON WED

OVERVIEW...SEVERAL PLAYERS INFLUENCE THE WEATHER PATTERN AFFECTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THIS COMING WEEK. OUR AREA WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT STRONG EASTWARD MOVING TROUGH ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA AND EJECTING FROM CLOSED LOW SLOWLY APPROACHING CA.
AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...H50 HEIGHTS ARE RELATIVELY
HIGH...BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE LARGE SCALE FLOW IS CHARACTERIZED
BY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SUSCEPTIBILITY FOR TROUGHING ACROSS
THE E CENTRAL CONUS. MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS ON THE
MID WEEK PERIOD WHEN A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH A HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OR PWAT ENVIRONMENT MAY SET THE STAGE FOR
CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAIN BANDS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL PROBABLY FEATURE RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE TO CHALLENGE OF RESOLVING SHORT WAVE TROFS
IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THAT FAR OUT. ALSO...AS NOTED IN THE PRIOR
FORECAST DISCUSSION...NEW ENGLAND MAY AT SOME POINT BY NEXT
WEEKEND OR A LITTLE BEYOND BE SITUATED ON THE PERIPERY OF A RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CONUS AND BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY MCS
ACTIVITY ON THAT PERIPHERY.

DETAILS...

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRY CONDITIONS AS MODELS AGREE UPON
SHORT WAVE RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. H85 TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS COMBINED WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE SUPPORT CURRENT FORECASTS
OF TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE TROF AND WARM FRONT USHER IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
AND MUCH HIGHER PWATS. WILL INDICATE CHANCE POPS ROUGHLY W OF AN
AFN-ORH-IJD LINE ON TUE WHERE K INDICES RISE TO ABOVE 30 FOR A
TIME AND SUGGESTIVE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS. AIR MASS LOOKS
DRIER AND MORE STABLE FURTHER EAST WHERE WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OR LESS POPS. IN DEFERENCE TO SOME INSTABILITY NOTED ON THE
LATEST GFS...WILL INDICATE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUE NIGHT NEAR
THE VT AND NH BORDERS.

WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A CONCERN OF ONE OR BANDS OF SIGNIFICANT TO EXCESSIVE
RAFL SETTING UP AS COLD FRONT DEACCELERATES ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWATS
OVER 2 INCHES. MODEL CONSENSUS ALSO INDICATES K INDICES IN THE MID 30S.
ISOBARS BECOME BAGGY AT THE SURFACE AS A WEAK WAVE ATTEMPTS TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND THE H70 AND
H50 FLOWS ARE PARALLEL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS EVEN
A HINT OF DIVERGENCE WITH THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS. ALL OF THIS IN
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY
TRAINING OF CELLS. THE INSTABILIY AND WIND SHEAR LOOK QUITE MODEST AND
SO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW. THE SIGNAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY/EXCESSIVE
RAIN LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH...HOWEVER...TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE CHANGED POSITIONS FROM 24 HOURS AGO WITH
THE GFS HANGING RAFL OVER THE AREA FOR A TIME WITH A WAVE WHEREAS
THE ECMWF IS NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE. FOR THE POPS HAVE GONE WITH A
MODEL BLEND WITH A SLIGHT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS WHICH SEEMS TO
HAVE BEEN DEMONSTRATING A LITTLE MORE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY THAN
THE ECMWF. ANTICIPATING LOWER DEWPOINTS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE LOWER SINCE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SHORT WAVE TROFS DAYS 6 AND 7 ESPECIALLY IN THE WARM
SEASON. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPS NOT TOO FAR FROM THE LONG TERM
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD WITH
SCT OCCASIONAL BKN MID CLOUDS. SEE ONLY A SLIGHT RISK FOR PATCHES
OF MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND TO
WEST/NORTHWEST TOWARD MORNING.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHES OF IFR IN LATE NIGHT
FOG POSSIBLE IN THE CT VALLEY OF MASSACHUSETTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS W OF AFN-ORH-IJD LINE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH AREAS OF
IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG ALONG THE S COAST. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS.
POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS AS
WELL AS IN FOG PATCHES ALONG THE S COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING TO VFR EXCEPT MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS MAY PERSIST IN SHOWERS AND FOG ALONG SE COASTAL AREAS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR OR BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 PM UPDATE...
CONTINUING WITH PRIOR FORECAST. NOTED RECENT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT
IN NW FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRES AND SEAS NOW 5 FEET AT
NANTUCKET SHOALS BUOY. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH HEADLINE FOR NOW
BUT SUSPECT IT MAY BE ABLE TO BE LOWERED SOONER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FOR TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND MOVES OFF SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT FROM EAST TO NORTH AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD A
LITTLE WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.
TIMING ON THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO A LATER START TIME BUT
OTHERWISE THE HEADLINE REMAINS THE SAME.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS WITH LIGHT WIND AND DIMINISHING SWELL. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL END AROUND MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG WITH POCKECTS OF VISIBILITY A MILE
OR LESS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING...MAINLY ALONG SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS. POSSIBLY AREAS OF FOG AGAIN WED NIGHT ALONG THE S COAST.
SCATTERED TSTMS MAY OCCUR LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KBOX 042312
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
712 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SCATTERED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. BECOMING MORE HUMID TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND MORE GENERALLY
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY. BECOMING DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND MOVE OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. A FEW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS IN
UPSTATE NEW YORK SHOULD RUN INTO AN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WELL BEFORE REACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAY JUST
SEE SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES PARTIAL CLEARING CONTINUING TO CAPE AND ISLANDS THIS
EVENING. MASS OF LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER NY STATE AND PA
APPEARS TO BE ERODING ON THE NE SIDE. WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT
BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROF AND SURFACE WAVE CROSSING GEORGES
BANK BUT NOT ENOUGH RAIN FELL TO COME CLOSE TO SATURATING LOWER
LAYERS OF ATMOSPHERE. THUS...IT SEEMS AT THIS TIME UNLIKELY THAT
ANY STRATUS WILL FORM GIVEN NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BE TRAPPED.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS MAY TEND TO BE FROM N OR NW MOST
LOCATIONS EXCEPT MAY BECOME LOCALLY OFFSHORE AS LIGHT LAND BREEZE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER THAN FORECAST AND SO HAVE
TWEAKED DOWNWARD A TAD...ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FOR TONIGHT...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA. UPPER SHORTWAVE SWINGS
OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH THE BEST DYNAMICAL SUPPORT MOVING OFFSHORE
EARLY. EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND FOR ANY REMAINING SHOWERS AS
THEY MOVE OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY A CLEARING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DEW POINTS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE 50S...THIS SHOULD ALLOW MIN SFC
TEMPS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS BUILDS EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.
CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRY AIR ABOVE 800 MB...AND A MOIST LAYER
AT 800-850 MB. MIXING SHOULD REACH ABOVE 850 MB. THIS SUGGESTS
SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND DISSIPATING SUNDAY
EVENING. TEMPERTURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT
MAX SURFACE TEMPS OF 80-85.

FAIR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEW POINTS RISE A LITTLE TO AROUND 60. EXPECT MIN SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THIS MAY SUPPORT PATCHES OF FOG
DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * WARM FRONT MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST TUE
 * LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAIN POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON WED

OVERVIEW...SEVERAL PLAYERS INFLUENCE THE WEATHER PATTERN AFFECTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THIS COMING WEEK. OUR AREA WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT STRONG EASTWARD MOVING TROUGH ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA AND EJECTING FROM CLOSED LOW SLOWLY APPROACHING CA.
AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...H50 HEIGHTS ARE RELATIVELY
HIGH...BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE LARGE SCALE FLOW IS CHARACTERIZED
BY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SUSCEPTIBILITY FOR TROUGHING ACROSS
THE E CENTRAL CONUS. MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS ON THE
MID WEEK PERIOD WHEN A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH A HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OR PWAT ENVIRONMENT MAY SET THE STAGE FOR
CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAIN BANDS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL PROBABLY FEATURE RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE TO CHALLENGE OF RESOLVING SHORT WAVE TROFS
IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THAT FAR OUT. ALSO...AS NOTED IN THE PRIOR
FORECAST DISCUSSION...NEW ENGLAND MAY AT SOME POINT BY NEXT
WEEKEND OR A LITTLE BEYOND BE SITUATED ON THE PERIPERY OF A RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CONUS AND BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY MCS
ACTIVITY ON THAT PERIPHERY.

DETAILS...

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRY CONDITIONS AS MODELS AGREE UPON
SHORT WAVE RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. H85 TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS COMBINED WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE SUPPORT CURRENT FORECASTS
OF TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE TROF AND WARM FRONT USHER IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
AND MUCH HIGHER PWATS. WILL INDICATE CHANCE POPS ROUGHLY W OF AN
AFN-ORH-IJD LINE ON TUE WHERE K INDICES RISE TO ABOVE 30 FOR A
TIME AND SUGGESTIVE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS. AIR MASS LOOKS
DRIER AND MORE STABLE FURTHER EAST WHERE WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OR LESS POPS. IN DEFERENCE TO SOME INSTABILITY NOTED ON THE
LATEST GFS...WILL INDICATE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUE NIGHT NEAR
THE VT AND NH BORDERS.

WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A CONCERN OF ONE OR BANDS OF SIGNIFICANT TO EXCESSIVE
RAFL SETTING UP AS COLD FRONT DEACCELERATES ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWATS
OVER 2 INCHES. MODEL CONSENSUS ALSO INDICATES K INDICES IN THE MID 30S.
ISOBARS BECOME BAGGY AT THE SURFACE AS A WEAK WAVE ATTEMPTS TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND THE H70 AND
H50 FLOWS ARE PARALLEL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS EVEN
A HINT OF DIVERGENCE WITH THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS. ALL OF THIS IN
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY
TRAINING OF CELLS. THE INSTABILIY AND WIND SHEAR LOOK QUITE MODEST AND
SO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW. THE SIGNAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY/EXCESSIVE
RAIN LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH...HOWEVER...TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE CHANGED POSITIONS FROM 24 HOURS AGO WITH
THE GFS HANGING RAFL OVER THE AREA FOR A TIME WITH A WAVE WHEREAS
THE ECMWF IS NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE. FOR THE POPS HAVE GONE WITH A
MODEL BLEND WITH A SLIGHT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS WHICH SEEMS TO
HAVE BEEN DEMONSTRATING A LITTLE MORE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY THAN
THE ECMWF. ANTICIPATING LOWER DEWPOINTS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE LOWER SINCE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SHORT WAVE TROFS DAYS 6 AND 7 ESPECIALLY IN THE WARM
SEASON. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPS NOT TOO FAR FROM THE LONG TERM
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD WITH
SCT OCCASIONAL BKN MID CLOUDS. SEE ONLY A SLIGHT RISK FOR PATCHES
OF MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND TO
WEST/NORTHWEST TOWARD MORNING.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHES OF IFR IN LATE NIGHT
FOG POSSIBLE IN THE CT VALLEY OF MASSACHUSETTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS W OF AFN-ORH-IJD LINE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH AREAS OF
IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG ALONG THE S COAST. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS.
POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS AS
WELL AS IN FOG PATCHES ALONG THE S COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING TO VFR EXCEPT MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS MAY PERSIST IN SHOWERS AND FOG ALONG SE COASTAL AREAS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR OR BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 PM UPDATE...
CONTINUING WITH PRIOR FORECAST. NOTED RECENT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT
IN NW FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRES AND SEAS NOW 5 FEET AT
NANTUCKET SHOALS BUOY. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH HEADLINE FOR NOW
BUT SUSPECT IT MAY BE ABLE TO BE LOWERED SOONER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FOR TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND MOVES OFF SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT FROM EAST TO NORTH AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD A
LITTLE WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.
TIMING ON THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO A LATER START TIME BUT
OTHERWISE THE HEADLINE REMAINS THE SAME.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS WITH LIGHT WIND AND DIMINISHING SWELL. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL END AROUND MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG WITH POCKECTS OF VISIBILITY A MILE
OR LESS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING...MAINLY ALONG SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS. POSSIBLY AREAS OF FOG AGAIN WED NIGHT ALONG THE S COAST.
SCATTERED TSTMS MAY OCCUR LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 042312
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
712 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SCATTERED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. BECOMING MORE HUMID TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND MORE GENERALLY
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY. BECOMING DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND MOVE OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. A FEW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS IN
UPSTATE NEW YORK SHOULD RUN INTO AN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WELL BEFORE REACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAY JUST
SEE SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES PARTIAL CLEARING CONTINUING TO CAPE AND ISLANDS THIS
EVENING. MASS OF LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER NY STATE AND PA
APPEARS TO BE ERODING ON THE NE SIDE. WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT
BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROF AND SURFACE WAVE CROSSING GEORGES
BANK BUT NOT ENOUGH RAIN FELL TO COME CLOSE TO SATURATING LOWER
LAYERS OF ATMOSPHERE. THUS...IT SEEMS AT THIS TIME UNLIKELY THAT
ANY STRATUS WILL FORM GIVEN NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BE TRAPPED.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS MAY TEND TO BE FROM N OR NW MOST
LOCATIONS EXCEPT MAY BECOME LOCALLY OFFSHORE AS LIGHT LAND BREEZE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER THAN FORECAST AND SO HAVE
TWEAKED DOWNWARD A TAD...ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FOR TONIGHT...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA. UPPER SHORTWAVE SWINGS
OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH THE BEST DYNAMICAL SUPPORT MOVING OFFSHORE
EARLY. EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND FOR ANY REMAINING SHOWERS AS
THEY MOVE OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY A CLEARING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DEW POINTS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE 50S...THIS SHOULD ALLOW MIN SFC
TEMPS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS BUILDS EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.
CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRY AIR ABOVE 800 MB...AND A MOIST LAYER
AT 800-850 MB. MIXING SHOULD REACH ABOVE 850 MB. THIS SUGGESTS
SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND DISSIPATING SUNDAY
EVENING. TEMPERTURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT
MAX SURFACE TEMPS OF 80-85.

FAIR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEW POINTS RISE A LITTLE TO AROUND 60. EXPECT MIN SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THIS MAY SUPPORT PATCHES OF FOG
DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * WARM FRONT MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST TUE
 * LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAIN POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON WED

OVERVIEW...SEVERAL PLAYERS INFLUENCE THE WEATHER PATTERN AFFECTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THIS COMING WEEK. OUR AREA WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT STRONG EASTWARD MOVING TROUGH ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA AND EJECTING FROM CLOSED LOW SLOWLY APPROACHING CA.
AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...H50 HEIGHTS ARE RELATIVELY
HIGH...BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE LARGE SCALE FLOW IS CHARACTERIZED
BY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SUSCEPTIBILITY FOR TROUGHING ACROSS
THE E CENTRAL CONUS. MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS ON THE
MID WEEK PERIOD WHEN A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH A HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OR PWAT ENVIRONMENT MAY SET THE STAGE FOR
CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAIN BANDS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL PROBABLY FEATURE RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE TO CHALLENGE OF RESOLVING SHORT WAVE TROFS
IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THAT FAR OUT. ALSO...AS NOTED IN THE PRIOR
FORECAST DISCUSSION...NEW ENGLAND MAY AT SOME POINT BY NEXT
WEEKEND OR A LITTLE BEYOND BE SITUATED ON THE PERIPERY OF A RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CONUS AND BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY MCS
ACTIVITY ON THAT PERIPHERY.

DETAILS...

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRY CONDITIONS AS MODELS AGREE UPON
SHORT WAVE RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. H85 TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS COMBINED WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE SUPPORT CURRENT FORECASTS
OF TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE TROF AND WARM FRONT USHER IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
AND MUCH HIGHER PWATS. WILL INDICATE CHANCE POPS ROUGHLY W OF AN
AFN-ORH-IJD LINE ON TUE WHERE K INDICES RISE TO ABOVE 30 FOR A
TIME AND SUGGESTIVE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS. AIR MASS LOOKS
DRIER AND MORE STABLE FURTHER EAST WHERE WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OR LESS POPS. IN DEFERENCE TO SOME INSTABILITY NOTED ON THE
LATEST GFS...WILL INDICATE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUE NIGHT NEAR
THE VT AND NH BORDERS.

WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A CONCERN OF ONE OR BANDS OF SIGNIFICANT TO EXCESSIVE
RAFL SETTING UP AS COLD FRONT DEACCELERATES ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWATS
OVER 2 INCHES. MODEL CONSENSUS ALSO INDICATES K INDICES IN THE MID 30S.
ISOBARS BECOME BAGGY AT THE SURFACE AS A WEAK WAVE ATTEMPTS TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND THE H70 AND
H50 FLOWS ARE PARALLEL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS EVEN
A HINT OF DIVERGENCE WITH THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS. ALL OF THIS IN
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY
TRAINING OF CELLS. THE INSTABILIY AND WIND SHEAR LOOK QUITE MODEST AND
SO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW. THE SIGNAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY/EXCESSIVE
RAIN LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH...HOWEVER...TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE CHANGED POSITIONS FROM 24 HOURS AGO WITH
THE GFS HANGING RAFL OVER THE AREA FOR A TIME WITH A WAVE WHEREAS
THE ECMWF IS NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE. FOR THE POPS HAVE GONE WITH A
MODEL BLEND WITH A SLIGHT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS WHICH SEEMS TO
HAVE BEEN DEMONSTRATING A LITTLE MORE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY THAN
THE ECMWF. ANTICIPATING LOWER DEWPOINTS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE LOWER SINCE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SHORT WAVE TROFS DAYS 6 AND 7 ESPECIALLY IN THE WARM
SEASON. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPS NOT TOO FAR FROM THE LONG TERM
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD WITH
SCT OCCASIONAL BKN MID CLOUDS. SEE ONLY A SLIGHT RISK FOR PATCHES
OF MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND TO
WEST/NORTHWEST TOWARD MORNING.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHES OF IFR IN LATE NIGHT
FOG POSSIBLE IN THE CT VALLEY OF MASSACHUSETTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS W OF AFN-ORH-IJD LINE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH AREAS OF
IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG ALONG THE S COAST. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS.
POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS AS
WELL AS IN FOG PATCHES ALONG THE S COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING TO VFR EXCEPT MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS MAY PERSIST IN SHOWERS AND FOG ALONG SE COASTAL AREAS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR OR BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 PM UPDATE...
CONTINUING WITH PRIOR FORECAST. NOTED RECENT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT
IN NW FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRES AND SEAS NOW 5 FEET AT
NANTUCKET SHOALS BUOY. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH HEADLINE FOR NOW
BUT SUSPECT IT MAY BE ABLE TO BE LOWERED SOONER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FOR TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND MOVES OFF SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT FROM EAST TO NORTH AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD A
LITTLE WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.
TIMING ON THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO A LATER START TIME BUT
OTHERWISE THE HEADLINE REMAINS THE SAME.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS WITH LIGHT WIND AND DIMINISHING SWELL. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL END AROUND MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG WITH POCKECTS OF VISIBILITY A MILE
OR LESS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING...MAINLY ALONG SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS. POSSIBLY AREAS OF FOG AGAIN WED NIGHT ALONG THE S COAST.
SCATTERED TSTMS MAY OCCUR LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KGYX 042301
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
701 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SHOWERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE: QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT DRY SLOT ALLOWING CLEAR
SKIES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NH AND NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN
MAINE. THESE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD EAST AND PERSIST
THE REST OF THE NIGHT OVER ALL AREAS WHERE SOME GENTLE DOWNSLOPING
OCCURS. NO OTHER CHANGES. PERFECT NIGHT HAS SET UP FOR OUTDOOR
FIREWORKS AND FESTIVITIES.

545 PM UPDATE: QUICK UPDATE TO TAKE OUT ANY MENTION OF THE LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS EARLY
THIS EVENING AS THEY HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST. FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT MAYBE A SHOWER LATER
IN THE EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
CURRENT BATCH OF -SHRA OVER SRN AND CENTRAL NH IS THE RESULT OF
700MB DEFORMATION ZONE ON ASSOCIATED UPPER LVL TROUGH TO OUR NW
AND SFC LOW TO THE S. MODELS DO INDICATE THAT THIS FORCING PEAKS
AROUND 18Z AND WEAKENS THRU THIS EVENING AS THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY FROM THE NRN SYSTEM. ALSO...THE MODELS AGREE THAT WE
HAVE PRETTY MUCH SEEN THE FARTHEST EWD AND NWD PROGRESSION OF THE
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES WORKING
INTO INTERIOR YORK/ CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THRU ABOUT 5 PM.
OTHERWISE... THE RAIN OVER SRN NH WILL DIMINISH THRU ABOUT
21-22Z...LEADING TO A MAINLY DRY EVENING HERE...AND ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA.

EVENING TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-UPPR 60S. THE MID-
HIGH CLOUDS ARE LKLY TO LINGER THRU THE EVE...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT.. MINS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 IN THE N...TO AROUND 60
ALONG THE COAST AND IN URBAN SRN NH. THE SECOND UPPER LVL TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO SWING JUST N OF THE CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND COULD
START SEEING A FEW SHRA POPPING UP IN THE MTNS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSES N OF THE CWA AROUND MIDDAY...SO
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHRA IN THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS A FEW TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...GIVEN SOME LOWERING 500MB HEIGHTS...AND INCREASING LOW LVL
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY-PARTLY SUNNY DAY IN THE
SRN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL TOP IN THE MID 70S N...AND ON THE
COAST...TO THE LOW 80S IN SRN NH AND INTERIOR SW ME.

SUN NIGHT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY CLEAR...BUT TDS WILL BE CREEPING UP
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY EVENING...AND THIS WILL KEEP MINS
GENERALLY IN THIS RANGE AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE A HOT DAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR
14-16 C OVER PORTIONS OF NH AND MAINE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS. A SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. OTHERWISE MID 80S ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND MOVES OFFSHORE. A SHORT
WAVE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS HELPING A SURFACE LOW DEEPEN
AND EJECT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES AND WARM SHOWERS WILL KICK OFF ACROSS
NH TUESDAY MORNING... REACHING MAINE BY THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND IN THE HEAT OF THE
DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WELL NORTH BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND FRONTOGENESIS
FOR SOME STRONG STORMS.

SHOWERS MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BEFORE WE SEE
ANOTHER INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK UNDERNEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE DOME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME IFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
CREATING MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME ENHANCED S-SW FLOW ALONG THE SHORE IN
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SUN AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS WILL
STILL SEE SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 3-4 FT.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AND THEN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF
THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AS DO SEAS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION... MARINE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 042301
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
701 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SHOWERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE: QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT DRY SLOT ALLOWING CLEAR
SKIES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NH AND NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN
MAINE. THESE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD EAST AND PERSIST
THE REST OF THE NIGHT OVER ALL AREAS WHERE SOME GENTLE DOWNSLOPING
OCCURS. NO OTHER CHANGES. PERFECT NIGHT HAS SET UP FOR OUTDOOR
FIREWORKS AND FESTIVITIES.

545 PM UPDATE: QUICK UPDATE TO TAKE OUT ANY MENTION OF THE LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS EARLY
THIS EVENING AS THEY HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST. FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT MAYBE A SHOWER LATER
IN THE EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
CURRENT BATCH OF -SHRA OVER SRN AND CENTRAL NH IS THE RESULT OF
700MB DEFORMATION ZONE ON ASSOCIATED UPPER LVL TROUGH TO OUR NW
AND SFC LOW TO THE S. MODELS DO INDICATE THAT THIS FORCING PEAKS
AROUND 18Z AND WEAKENS THRU THIS EVENING AS THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY FROM THE NRN SYSTEM. ALSO...THE MODELS AGREE THAT WE
HAVE PRETTY MUCH SEEN THE FARTHEST EWD AND NWD PROGRESSION OF THE
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES WORKING
INTO INTERIOR YORK/ CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THRU ABOUT 5 PM.
OTHERWISE... THE RAIN OVER SRN NH WILL DIMINISH THRU ABOUT
21-22Z...LEADING TO A MAINLY DRY EVENING HERE...AND ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA.

EVENING TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-UPPR 60S. THE MID-
HIGH CLOUDS ARE LKLY TO LINGER THRU THE EVE...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT.. MINS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 IN THE N...TO AROUND 60
ALONG THE COAST AND IN URBAN SRN NH. THE SECOND UPPER LVL TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO SWING JUST N OF THE CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND COULD
START SEEING A FEW SHRA POPPING UP IN THE MTNS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSES N OF THE CWA AROUND MIDDAY...SO
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHRA IN THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS A FEW TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...GIVEN SOME LOWERING 500MB HEIGHTS...AND INCREASING LOW LVL
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY-PARTLY SUNNY DAY IN THE
SRN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL TOP IN THE MID 70S N...AND ON THE
COAST...TO THE LOW 80S IN SRN NH AND INTERIOR SW ME.

SUN NIGHT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY CLEAR...BUT TDS WILL BE CREEPING UP
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY EVENING...AND THIS WILL KEEP MINS
GENERALLY IN THIS RANGE AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE A HOT DAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR
14-16 C OVER PORTIONS OF NH AND MAINE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS. A SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. OTHERWISE MID 80S ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND MOVES OFFSHORE. A SHORT
WAVE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS HELPING A SURFACE LOW DEEPEN
AND EJECT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES AND WARM SHOWERS WILL KICK OFF ACROSS
NH TUESDAY MORNING... REACHING MAINE BY THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND IN THE HEAT OF THE
DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WELL NORTH BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND FRONTOGENESIS
FOR SOME STRONG STORMS.

SHOWERS MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BEFORE WE SEE
ANOTHER INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK UNDERNEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE DOME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME IFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
CREATING MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME ENHANCED S-SW FLOW ALONG THE SHORE IN
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SUN AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS WILL
STILL SEE SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 3-4 FT.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AND THEN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF
THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AS DO SEAS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION... MARINE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 042301
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
701 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SHOWERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE: QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT DRY SLOT ALLOWING CLEAR
SKIES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NH AND NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN
MAINE. THESE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD EAST AND PERSIST
THE REST OF THE NIGHT OVER ALL AREAS WHERE SOME GENTLE DOWNSLOPING
OCCURS. NO OTHER CHANGES. PERFECT NIGHT HAS SET UP FOR OUTDOOR
FIREWORKS AND FESTIVITIES.

545 PM UPDATE: QUICK UPDATE TO TAKE OUT ANY MENTION OF THE LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS EARLY
THIS EVENING AS THEY HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST. FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT MAYBE A SHOWER LATER
IN THE EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
CURRENT BATCH OF -SHRA OVER SRN AND CENTRAL NH IS THE RESULT OF
700MB DEFORMATION ZONE ON ASSOCIATED UPPER LVL TROUGH TO OUR NW
AND SFC LOW TO THE S. MODELS DO INDICATE THAT THIS FORCING PEAKS
AROUND 18Z AND WEAKENS THRU THIS EVENING AS THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY FROM THE NRN SYSTEM. ALSO...THE MODELS AGREE THAT WE
HAVE PRETTY MUCH SEEN THE FARTHEST EWD AND NWD PROGRESSION OF THE
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES WORKING
INTO INTERIOR YORK/ CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THRU ABOUT 5 PM.
OTHERWISE... THE RAIN OVER SRN NH WILL DIMINISH THRU ABOUT
21-22Z...LEADING TO A MAINLY DRY EVENING HERE...AND ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA.

EVENING TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-UPPR 60S. THE MID-
HIGH CLOUDS ARE LKLY TO LINGER THRU THE EVE...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT.. MINS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 IN THE N...TO AROUND 60
ALONG THE COAST AND IN URBAN SRN NH. THE SECOND UPPER LVL TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO SWING JUST N OF THE CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND COULD
START SEEING A FEW SHRA POPPING UP IN THE MTNS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSES N OF THE CWA AROUND MIDDAY...SO
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHRA IN THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS A FEW TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...GIVEN SOME LOWERING 500MB HEIGHTS...AND INCREASING LOW LVL
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY-PARTLY SUNNY DAY IN THE
SRN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL TOP IN THE MID 70S N...AND ON THE
COAST...TO THE LOW 80S IN SRN NH AND INTERIOR SW ME.

SUN NIGHT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY CLEAR...BUT TDS WILL BE CREEPING UP
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY EVENING...AND THIS WILL KEEP MINS
GENERALLY IN THIS RANGE AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE A HOT DAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR
14-16 C OVER PORTIONS OF NH AND MAINE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS. A SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. OTHERWISE MID 80S ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND MOVES OFFSHORE. A SHORT
WAVE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS HELPING A SURFACE LOW DEEPEN
AND EJECT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES AND WARM SHOWERS WILL KICK OFF ACROSS
NH TUESDAY MORNING... REACHING MAINE BY THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND IN THE HEAT OF THE
DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WELL NORTH BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND FRONTOGENESIS
FOR SOME STRONG STORMS.

SHOWERS MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BEFORE WE SEE
ANOTHER INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK UNDERNEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE DOME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME IFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
CREATING MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME ENHANCED S-SW FLOW ALONG THE SHORE IN
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SUN AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS WILL
STILL SEE SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 3-4 FT.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AND THEN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF
THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AS DO SEAS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION... MARINE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 042301
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
701 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SHOWERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE: QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT DRY SLOT ALLOWING CLEAR
SKIES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NH AND NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN
MAINE. THESE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD EAST AND PERSIST
THE REST OF THE NIGHT OVER ALL AREAS WHERE SOME GENTLE DOWNSLOPING
OCCURS. NO OTHER CHANGES. PERFECT NIGHT HAS SET UP FOR OUTDOOR
FIREWORKS AND FESTIVITIES.

545 PM UPDATE: QUICK UPDATE TO TAKE OUT ANY MENTION OF THE LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS EARLY
THIS EVENING AS THEY HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST. FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT MAYBE A SHOWER LATER
IN THE EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
CURRENT BATCH OF -SHRA OVER SRN AND CENTRAL NH IS THE RESULT OF
700MB DEFORMATION ZONE ON ASSOCIATED UPPER LVL TROUGH TO OUR NW
AND SFC LOW TO THE S. MODELS DO INDICATE THAT THIS FORCING PEAKS
AROUND 18Z AND WEAKENS THRU THIS EVENING AS THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY FROM THE NRN SYSTEM. ALSO...THE MODELS AGREE THAT WE
HAVE PRETTY MUCH SEEN THE FARTHEST EWD AND NWD PROGRESSION OF THE
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES WORKING
INTO INTERIOR YORK/ CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THRU ABOUT 5 PM.
OTHERWISE... THE RAIN OVER SRN NH WILL DIMINISH THRU ABOUT
21-22Z...LEADING TO A MAINLY DRY EVENING HERE...AND ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA.

EVENING TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-UPPR 60S. THE MID-
HIGH CLOUDS ARE LKLY TO LINGER THRU THE EVE...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT.. MINS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 IN THE N...TO AROUND 60
ALONG THE COAST AND IN URBAN SRN NH. THE SECOND UPPER LVL TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO SWING JUST N OF THE CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND COULD
START SEEING A FEW SHRA POPPING UP IN THE MTNS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSES N OF THE CWA AROUND MIDDAY...SO
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHRA IN THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS A FEW TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...GIVEN SOME LOWERING 500MB HEIGHTS...AND INCREASING LOW LVL
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY-PARTLY SUNNY DAY IN THE
SRN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL TOP IN THE MID 70S N...AND ON THE
COAST...TO THE LOW 80S IN SRN NH AND INTERIOR SW ME.

SUN NIGHT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY CLEAR...BUT TDS WILL BE CREEPING UP
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY EVENING...AND THIS WILL KEEP MINS
GENERALLY IN THIS RANGE AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE A HOT DAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR
14-16 C OVER PORTIONS OF NH AND MAINE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS. A SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. OTHERWISE MID 80S ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND MOVES OFFSHORE. A SHORT
WAVE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS HELPING A SURFACE LOW DEEPEN
AND EJECT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES AND WARM SHOWERS WILL KICK OFF ACROSS
NH TUESDAY MORNING... REACHING MAINE BY THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND IN THE HEAT OF THE
DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WELL NORTH BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND FRONTOGENESIS
FOR SOME STRONG STORMS.

SHOWERS MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BEFORE WE SEE
ANOTHER INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK UNDERNEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE DOME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME IFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
CREATING MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME ENHANCED S-SW FLOW ALONG THE SHORE IN
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SUN AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS WILL
STILL SEE SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 3-4 FT.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AND THEN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF
THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AS DO SEAS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION... MARINE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 042151
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
551 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SHOWERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
545 PM UPDATE: QUICK UPDATE TO TAKE OUT ANY MENTION OF THE LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS EARLY
THIS EVENING AS THEY HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST. FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT MAYBE A SHOWER LATER
IN THE EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
CURRENT BATCH OF -SHRA OVER SRN AND CENTRAL NH IS THE RESULT OF
700MB DEFORMATION ZONE ON ASSOCIATED UPPER LVL TROUGH TO OUR NW
AND SFC LOW TO THE S. MODELS DO INDICATE THAT THIS FORCING PEAKS
AROUND 18Z AND WEAKENS THRU THIS EVENING AS THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY FROM THE NRN SYSTEM. ALSO...THE MODELS AGREE THAT WE
HAVE PRETTY MUCH SEEN THE FARTHEST EWD AND NWD PROGRESSION OF THE
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES WORKING
INTO INTERIOR YORK/ CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THRU ABOUT 5 PM.
OTHERWISE... THE RAIN OVER SRN NH WILL DIMINISH THRU ABOUT
21-22Z...LEADING TO A MAINLY DRY EVENING HERE...AND ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA.

EVENING TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-UPPR 60S. THE MID-
HIGH CLOUDS ARE LKLY TO LINGER THRU THE EVE...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT.. MINS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 IN THE N...TO AROUND 60
ALONG THE COAST AND IN URBAN SRN NH. THE SECOND UPPER LVL TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO SWING JUST N OF THE CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND COULD
START SEEING A FEW SHRA POPPING UP IN THE MTNS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSES N OF THE CWA AROUND MIDDAY...SO
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHRA IN THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS A FEW TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...GIVEN SOME LOWERING 500MB HEIGHTS...AND INCREASING LOW LVL
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY-PARTLY SUNNY DAY IN THE
SRN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL TOP IN THE MID 70S N...AND ON THE
COAST...TO THE LOW 80S IN SRN NH AND INTERIOR SW ME.

SUN NIGHT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY CLEAR...BUT TDS WILL BE CREEPING UP
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY EVENING...AND THIS WILL KEEP MINS
GENERALLY IN THIS RANGE AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE A HOT DAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR
14-16 C OVER PORTIONS OF NH AND MAINE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS. A SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. OTHERWISE MID 80S ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND MOVES OFFSHORE. A SHORT
WAVE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS HELPING A SURFACE LOW DEEPEN
AND EJECT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES AND WARM SHOWERS WILL KICK OFF ACROSS
NH TUESDAY MORNING... REACHING MAINE BY THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND IN THE HEAT OF THE
DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WELL NORTH BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND FRONTOGENESIS
FOR SOME STRONG STORMS.

SHOWERS MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BEFORE WE SEE
ANOTHER INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK UNDERNEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE DOME.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME IFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
CREATING MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME ENHANCED S-SW FLOW ALONG THE SHORE IN
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SUN AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS WILL
STILL SEE SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 3-4 FT.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AND THEN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF
THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AS DO SEAS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION... MARINE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 042151
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
551 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SHOWERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
545 PM UPDATE: QUICK UPDATE TO TAKE OUT ANY MENTION OF THE LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS EARLY
THIS EVENING AS THEY HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST. FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT MAYBE A SHOWER LATER
IN THE EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
CURRENT BATCH OF -SHRA OVER SRN AND CENTRAL NH IS THE RESULT OF
700MB DEFORMATION ZONE ON ASSOCIATED UPPER LVL TROUGH TO OUR NW
AND SFC LOW TO THE S. MODELS DO INDICATE THAT THIS FORCING PEAKS
AROUND 18Z AND WEAKENS THRU THIS EVENING AS THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY FROM THE NRN SYSTEM. ALSO...THE MODELS AGREE THAT WE
HAVE PRETTY MUCH SEEN THE FARTHEST EWD AND NWD PROGRESSION OF THE
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES WORKING
INTO INTERIOR YORK/ CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THRU ABOUT 5 PM.
OTHERWISE... THE RAIN OVER SRN NH WILL DIMINISH THRU ABOUT
21-22Z...LEADING TO A MAINLY DRY EVENING HERE...AND ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA.

EVENING TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-UPPR 60S. THE MID-
HIGH CLOUDS ARE LKLY TO LINGER THRU THE EVE...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT.. MINS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 IN THE N...TO AROUND 60
ALONG THE COAST AND IN URBAN SRN NH. THE SECOND UPPER LVL TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO SWING JUST N OF THE CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND COULD
START SEEING A FEW SHRA POPPING UP IN THE MTNS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSES N OF THE CWA AROUND MIDDAY...SO
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHRA IN THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS A FEW TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...GIVEN SOME LOWERING 500MB HEIGHTS...AND INCREASING LOW LVL
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY-PARTLY SUNNY DAY IN THE
SRN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL TOP IN THE MID 70S N...AND ON THE
COAST...TO THE LOW 80S IN SRN NH AND INTERIOR SW ME.

SUN NIGHT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY CLEAR...BUT TDS WILL BE CREEPING UP
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY EVENING...AND THIS WILL KEEP MINS
GENERALLY IN THIS RANGE AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE A HOT DAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR
14-16 C OVER PORTIONS OF NH AND MAINE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS. A SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. OTHERWISE MID 80S ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND MOVES OFFSHORE. A SHORT
WAVE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS HELPING A SURFACE LOW DEEPEN
AND EJECT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES AND WARM SHOWERS WILL KICK OFF ACROSS
NH TUESDAY MORNING... REACHING MAINE BY THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND IN THE HEAT OF THE
DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WELL NORTH BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND FRONTOGENESIS
FOR SOME STRONG STORMS.

SHOWERS MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BEFORE WE SEE
ANOTHER INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK UNDERNEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE DOME.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME IFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
CREATING MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME ENHANCED S-SW FLOW ALONG THE SHORE IN
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SUN AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS WILL
STILL SEE SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 3-4 FT.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AND THEN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF
THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AS DO SEAS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION... MARINE




000
FXUS61 KBOX 042025
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
425 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SCATTERED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. BECOMING MORE HUMID TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND MORE GENERALLY
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY. BECOMING DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH 8 PM...MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS OVER WESTERN
MASS/CONNECTICUT. RADAR SHOWS PATCHY YELLOWS AND ORANGES WHICH ARE
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW VSBYS AROUND
10 MILES...EXCEPT A BRIEF 4-5 MILES IN THE BERKSHIRES DURING
MIDAFTERNOON. WITH CLOUD BASES 9-10 THOUSAND FEET...EXPECT MUCH
OF THE RAIN ON RADAR IS EVAPORATING ON THE WAY DOWN. WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE EVENING.

TONIGHT...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA. UPPER SHORTWAVE SWINGS OVER
NEW ENGLAND WITH THE BEST DYNAMICAL SUPPORT MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY.
EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND FOR ANY REMAINING SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE
OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY A CLEARING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEW POINTS
UPSTREAM ARE IN THE 50S...THIS SHOULD ALLOW MIN SFC TEMPS IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS BUILDS EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.
CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRY AIR ABOVE 800 MB...AND A MOIST LAYER
AT 800-850 MB. MIXING SHOULD REACH ABOVE 850 MB. THIS SUGGESTS
SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND DISSIPATING SUNDAY
EVENING. TEMPERTURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT
MAX SURFACE TEMPS OF 80-85.

FAIR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEW POINTS RISE A LITTLE TO AROUND 60. EXPECT MIN SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THIS MAY SUPPORT PATCHES OF FOG
DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * WARM FRONT MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST TUE
 * LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAIN POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON WED

OVERVIEW...SEVERAL PLAYERS INFLUENCE THE WEATHER PATTERN AFFECTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THIS COMING WEEK. OUR AREA WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT STRONG EASTWARD MOVING TROUGH ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA AND EJECTING FROM CLOSED LOW SLOWLY APPROACHING CA.
AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...H50 HEIGHTS ARE RELATIVELY
HIGH...BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE LARGE SCALE FLOW IS CHARACTERIZED
BY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SUSCEPTIBILITY FOR TROUGHING ACROSS
THE E CENTRAL CONUS. MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS ON THE
MID WEEK PERIOD WHEN A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH A HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OR PWAT ENVIRONMENT MAY SET THE STAGE FOR
CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAIN BANDS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL PROBABLY FEATURE RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE TO CHALLENGE OF RESOLVING SHORT WAVE TROFS
IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THAT FAR OUT. ALSO...AS NOTED IN THE PRIOR
FORECAST DISCUSSION...NEW ENGLAND MAY AT SOME POINT BY NEXT
WEEKEND OR A LITTLE BEYOND BE SITUATED ON THE PERIPERY OF A RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CONUS AND BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY MCS
ACTIVITY ON THAT PERIPHERY.

DETAILS...

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRY CONDITIONS AS MODELS AGREE UPON
SHORT WAVE RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. H85 TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS COMBINED WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE SUPPORT CURRENT FORECASTS
OF TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE TROF AND WARM FRONT USHER IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
AND MUCH HIGHER PWATS. WILL INDICATE CHANCE POPS ROUGHLY W OF AN
AFN-ORH-IJD LINE ON TUE WHERE K INDICES RISE TO ABOVE 30 FOR A
TIME AND SUGGESTIVE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS. AIR MASS LOOKS
DRIER AND MORE STABLE FURTHER EAST WHERE WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OR LESS POPS. IN DEFERENCE TO SOME INSTABILITY NOTED ON THE
LATEST GFS...WILL INDICATE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUE NIGHT NEAR
THE VT AND NH BORDERS.

WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A CONCERN OF ONE OR BANDS OF SIGNIFICANT TO EXCESSIVE
RAFL SETTING UP AS COLD FRONT DEACCELERATES ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWATS
OVER 2 INCHES. MODEL CONSENSUS ALSO INDICATES K INDICES IN THE MID 30S.
ISOBARS BECOME BAGGY AT THE SURFACE AS A WEAK WAVE ATTEMPTS TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND THE H70 AND
H50 FLOWS ARE PARALLEL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS EVEN
A HINT OF DIVERGENCE WITH THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS. ALL OF THIS IN
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY
TRAINING OF CELLS. THE INSTABILIY AND WIND SHEAR LOOK QUITE MODEST AND
SO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW. THE SIGNAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY/EXCESSIVE
RAIN LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH...HOWEVER...TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE CHANGED POSITIONS FROM 24 HOURS AGO WITH
THE GFS HANGING RAFL OVER THE AREA FOR A TIME WITH A WAVE WHEREAS
THE ECMWF IS NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE. FOR THE POPS HAVE GONE WITH A
MODEL BLEND WITH A SLIGHT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS WHICH SEEMS TO
HAVE BEEN DEMONSTRATING A LITTLE MORE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY THAN
THE ECMWF. ANTICIPATING LOWER DEWPOINTS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE LOWER SINCE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SHORT WAVE TROFS DAYS 6 AND 7 ESPECIALLY IN THE WARM
SEASON. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPS NOT TOO FAR FROM THE LONG TERM
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 8 PM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LARGE AREA OF RAIN ON RADAR BUT
ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS REACHING THE GROUND. THIS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
BOS-PVD 6-630 PM AND EAST OF THE CAPE AROUND 8 PM. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LINGERING RAIN TAPERS OFF EARLY IN
THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WE THINK
DRY AIR BELOW 5000 FEET WILL OVERCOME MOST OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR. DRIER AIR MOVING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES
BY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS TREND TO WEST/NORTHWEST TOWARD MORNING.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHES OF IFR IN LATE NIGHT
FOG POSSIBLE IN THE CT VALLEY OF MASSACHUSETTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS W OF AFN-ORH-IJD LINE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH AREAS OF
IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG ALONG THE S COAST. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS.
POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS AS
WELL AS IN FOG PATCHES ALONG THE S COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING TO VFR EXCEPT MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS MAY PERSIST IN SHOWERS AND FOG ALONG SE COASTAL AREAS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR OR BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE
WATERS AND MOVES OFF SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT
FROM EAST TO NORTH AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW 25 KNOTS. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD A LITTLE WITH HEIGHTS AROUND
5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. TIMING ON THE ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO A LATER START TIME BUT OTHERWISE THE HEADLINE
REMAINS THE SAME.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS WITH LIGHT WIND AND DIMINISHING SWELL. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL END AROUND MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG WITH POCKECTS OF VISIBILITY A MILE
OR LESS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING...MAINLY ALONG SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS. POSSIBLY AREAS OF FOG AGAIN WED NIGHT ALONG THE S COAST.
SCATTERED TSTMS MAY OCCUR LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 042025
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
425 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SCATTERED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. BECOMING MORE HUMID TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND MORE GENERALLY
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY. BECOMING DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH 8 PM...MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS OVER WESTERN
MASS/CONNECTICUT. RADAR SHOWS PATCHY YELLOWS AND ORANGES WHICH ARE
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW VSBYS AROUND
10 MILES...EXCEPT A BRIEF 4-5 MILES IN THE BERKSHIRES DURING
MIDAFTERNOON. WITH CLOUD BASES 9-10 THOUSAND FEET...EXPECT MUCH
OF THE RAIN ON RADAR IS EVAPORATING ON THE WAY DOWN. WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE EVENING.

TONIGHT...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA. UPPER SHORTWAVE SWINGS OVER
NEW ENGLAND WITH THE BEST DYNAMICAL SUPPORT MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY.
EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND FOR ANY REMAINING SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE
OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY A CLEARING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEW POINTS
UPSTREAM ARE IN THE 50S...THIS SHOULD ALLOW MIN SFC TEMPS IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS BUILDS EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.
CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRY AIR ABOVE 800 MB...AND A MOIST LAYER
AT 800-850 MB. MIXING SHOULD REACH ABOVE 850 MB. THIS SUGGESTS
SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND DISSIPATING SUNDAY
EVENING. TEMPERTURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT
MAX SURFACE TEMPS OF 80-85.

FAIR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEW POINTS RISE A LITTLE TO AROUND 60. EXPECT MIN SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THIS MAY SUPPORT PATCHES OF FOG
DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * WARM FRONT MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST TUE
 * LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAIN POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON WED

OVERVIEW...SEVERAL PLAYERS INFLUENCE THE WEATHER PATTERN AFFECTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THIS COMING WEEK. OUR AREA WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT STRONG EASTWARD MOVING TROUGH ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA AND EJECTING FROM CLOSED LOW SLOWLY APPROACHING CA.
AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...H50 HEIGHTS ARE RELATIVELY
HIGH...BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE LARGE SCALE FLOW IS CHARACTERIZED
BY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SUSCEPTIBILITY FOR TROUGHING ACROSS
THE E CENTRAL CONUS. MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS ON THE
MID WEEK PERIOD WHEN A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH A HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OR PWAT ENVIRONMENT MAY SET THE STAGE FOR
CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAIN BANDS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL PROBABLY FEATURE RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE TO CHALLENGE OF RESOLVING SHORT WAVE TROFS
IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THAT FAR OUT. ALSO...AS NOTED IN THE PRIOR
FORECAST DISCUSSION...NEW ENGLAND MAY AT SOME POINT BY NEXT
WEEKEND OR A LITTLE BEYOND BE SITUATED ON THE PERIPERY OF A RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CONUS AND BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY MCS
ACTIVITY ON THAT PERIPHERY.

DETAILS...

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRY CONDITIONS AS MODELS AGREE UPON
SHORT WAVE RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. H85 TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS COMBINED WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE SUPPORT CURRENT FORECASTS
OF TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE TROF AND WARM FRONT USHER IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
AND MUCH HIGHER PWATS. WILL INDICATE CHANCE POPS ROUGHLY W OF AN
AFN-ORH-IJD LINE ON TUE WHERE K INDICES RISE TO ABOVE 30 FOR A
TIME AND SUGGESTIVE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS. AIR MASS LOOKS
DRIER AND MORE STABLE FURTHER EAST WHERE WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OR LESS POPS. IN DEFERENCE TO SOME INSTABILITY NOTED ON THE
LATEST GFS...WILL INDICATE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUE NIGHT NEAR
THE VT AND NH BORDERS.

WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A CONCERN OF ONE OR BANDS OF SIGNIFICANT TO EXCESSIVE
RAFL SETTING UP AS COLD FRONT DEACCELERATES ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWATS
OVER 2 INCHES. MODEL CONSENSUS ALSO INDICATES K INDICES IN THE MID 30S.
ISOBARS BECOME BAGGY AT THE SURFACE AS A WEAK WAVE ATTEMPTS TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND THE H70 AND
H50 FLOWS ARE PARALLEL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS EVEN
A HINT OF DIVERGENCE WITH THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS. ALL OF THIS IN
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY
TRAINING OF CELLS. THE INSTABILIY AND WIND SHEAR LOOK QUITE MODEST AND
SO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW. THE SIGNAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY/EXCESSIVE
RAIN LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH...HOWEVER...TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE CHANGED POSITIONS FROM 24 HOURS AGO WITH
THE GFS HANGING RAFL OVER THE AREA FOR A TIME WITH A WAVE WHEREAS
THE ECMWF IS NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE. FOR THE POPS HAVE GONE WITH A
MODEL BLEND WITH A SLIGHT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS WHICH SEEMS TO
HAVE BEEN DEMONSTRATING A LITTLE MORE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY THAN
THE ECMWF. ANTICIPATING LOWER DEWPOINTS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE LOWER SINCE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SHORT WAVE TROFS DAYS 6 AND 7 ESPECIALLY IN THE WARM
SEASON. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPS NOT TOO FAR FROM THE LONG TERM
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 8 PM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LARGE AREA OF RAIN ON RADAR BUT
ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS REACHING THE GROUND. THIS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
BOS-PVD 6-630 PM AND EAST OF THE CAPE AROUND 8 PM. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LINGERING RAIN TAPERS OFF EARLY IN
THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WE THINK
DRY AIR BELOW 5000 FEET WILL OVERCOME MOST OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR. DRIER AIR MOVING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES
BY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS TREND TO WEST/NORTHWEST TOWARD MORNING.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHES OF IFR IN LATE NIGHT
FOG POSSIBLE IN THE CT VALLEY OF MASSACHUSETTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS W OF AFN-ORH-IJD LINE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH AREAS OF
IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG ALONG THE S COAST. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS.
POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS AS
WELL AS IN FOG PATCHES ALONG THE S COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING TO VFR EXCEPT MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS MAY PERSIST IN SHOWERS AND FOG ALONG SE COASTAL AREAS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR OR BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE
WATERS AND MOVES OFF SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT
FROM EAST TO NORTH AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW 25 KNOTS. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD A LITTLE WITH HEIGHTS AROUND
5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. TIMING ON THE ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO A LATER START TIME BUT OTHERWISE THE HEADLINE
REMAINS THE SAME.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS WITH LIGHT WIND AND DIMINISHING SWELL. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL END AROUND MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG WITH POCKECTS OF VISIBILITY A MILE
OR LESS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING...MAINLY ALONG SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS. POSSIBLY AREAS OF FOG AGAIN WED NIGHT ALONG THE S COAST.
SCATTERED TSTMS MAY OCCUR LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KBOX 042012
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
412 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SCATTERED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. BECOMING MORE HUMID TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND MORE GENERALLY
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY. BECOMING DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 8 PM...MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS OVER WESTERN
MASS/CONNECTICUT. RADAR SHOWS PATCHY YELLOWS AND ORANGES WHILE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW VSBYS AROUND 10 MILES...EXCEPT 4-5 MILES IN THE
BERKSHIRES. WITH CLOUD BASES 9-10 THOUSAND FEET...EXPECT MUCH OF
THE RAIN ON RADAR IS EVAPORATING ON THE WAY DOWN. WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN OUR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS...SCATTERED SPRINKLES IN THE EAST.

EARLY AFTERNOON OBSERVED TEMPERATURES SHOW A RANGE OF 65 TO 75.
UPPER 60S AND 70S SHOULD COVER THE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS.

TONIGHT...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA. UPPER SHORTWAVE SWINGS OVER
NEW ENGLAND. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET
WILL BE RIGHT OVER US AT 00Z/8 PM CREATING UPPER VENTING. IF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LINGERS THEN WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE WIDELY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. BUT THE
AMOUNT OF EVAPORATION IN PROGRESS SUGGESTS A FACTOR COUNTERACTING
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS.

WE WILL MAKE OUR FINAL CALL ON EVENING POPS BASED ON THE RADAR
DISPLAY BETWEEN 3 AND 4 PM. BUT THE TREND ON THE FORECAST IS FOR
DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER IT WILL
BE STARTING AT 70 PERCENT OR 20 PERCENT OR 5 PERCENT.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AXIS SWEEPS EAST OF OUR AREA BY MORNING...SO
EXPECT A TREND TO CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEW POINTS
UPSTREAM ARE IN THE 50S...THIS SHOULD ALLOW MIN SFC TEMPS IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS BUILDS EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.
CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRY AIR ABOVE 800 MB...AND A MOIST LAYER
AT 800-850 MB. MIXING SHOULD REACH ABOVE 850 MB. THIS SUGGESTS
SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND DISSIPATING SUNDAY
EVENING. TEMPERTURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT
MAX SURFACE TEMPS OF 80-85.

FAIR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEW POINTS RISE A LITTLE TO AROUND 60. EXPECT MIN SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THIS MAY SUPPORT PATCHES OF FOG
DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * WARM FRONT MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST TUE
 * LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAIN POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON WED

OVERVIEW...SEVERAL PLAYERS INFLUENCE THE WEATHER PATTERN AFFECTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THIS COMING WEEK. OUR AREA WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT STRONG EASTWARD MOVING TROUGH ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA AND EJECTING FROM CLOSED LOW SLOWLY APPROACHING CA.
AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...H50 HEIGHTS ARE RELATIVELY
HIGH...BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE LARGE SCALE FLOW IS CHARACTERIZED
BY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SUSCEPTIBILITY FOR TROUGHING ACROSS
THE E CENTRAL CONUS. MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS ON THE
MID WEEK PERIOD WHEN A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH A HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OR PWAT ENVIRONMENT MAY SET THE STAGE FOR
CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAIN BANDS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL PROBABLY FEATURE RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE TO CHALLENGE OF RESOLVING SHORT WAVE TROFS
IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THAT FAR OUT. ALSO...AS NOTED IN THE PRIOR
FORECAST DISCUSSION...NEW ENGLAND MAY AT SOME POINT BY NEXT
WEEKEND OR A LITTLE BEYOND BE SITUATED ON THE PERIPERY OF A RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CONUS AND BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY MCS
ACTIVITY ON THAT PERIPHERY.

DETAILS...

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRY CONDITIONS AS MODELS AGREE UPON
SHORT WAVE RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. H85 TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS COMBINED WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE SUPPORT CURRENT FORECASTS
OF TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE TROF AND WARM FRONT USHER IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
AND MUCH HIGHER PWATS. WILL INDICATE CHANCE POPS ROUGHLY W OF AN
AFN-ORH-IJD LINE ON TUE WHERE K INDICES RISE TO ABOVE 30 FOR A
TIME AND SUGGESTIVE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS. AIR MASS LOOKS
DRIER AND MORE STABLE FURTHER EAST WHERE WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OR LESS POPS. IN DEFERENCE TO SOME INSTABILITY NOTED ON THE
LATEST GFS...WILL INDICATE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUE NIGHT NEAR
THE VT AND NH BORDERS.

WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A CONCERN OF ONE OR BANDS OF SIGNIFICANT TO EXCESSIVE
RAFL SETTING UP AS COLD FRONT DEACCELERATES ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWATS
OVER 2 INCHES. MODEL CONSENSUS ALSO INDICATES K INDICES IN THE MID 30S.
ISOBARS BECOME BAGGY AT THE SURFACE AS A WEAK WAVE ATTEMPTS TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND THE H70 AND
H50 FLOWS ARE PARALLEL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS EVEN
A HINT OF DIVERGENCE WITH THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS. ALL OF THIS IN
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY
TRAINING OF CELLS. THE INSTABILIY AND WIND SHEAR LOOK QUITE MODEST AND
SO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW. THE SIGNAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY/EXCESSIVE
RAIN LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH...HOWEVER...TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE CHANGED POSITIONS FROM 24 HOURS AGO WITH
THE GFS HANGING RAFL OVER THE AREA FOR A TIME WITH A WAVE WHEREAS
THE ECMWF IS NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE. FOR THE POPS HAVE GONE WITH A
MODEL BLEND WITH A SLIGHT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS WHICH SEEMS TO
HAVE BEEN DEMONSTRATING A LITTLE MORE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY THAN
THE ECMWF. ANTICIPATING LOWER DEWPOINTS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE LOWER SINCE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SHORT WAVE TROFS DAYS 6 AND 7 ESPECIALLY IN THE WARM
SEASON. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPS NOT TOO FAR FROM THE LONG TERM
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 8 PM...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LARGE AREA OF RAIN ON
RADAR BUT ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS REACHING THE GROUND. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH EVENING. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BUT MAINLY IN NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS WHERE
1000-1500 FOOT CIGS AND 4-5 MILE VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LINGERING RAIN TAPERS OFF EARLY IN
THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WE THINK
DRY AIR BELOW 5000 FEET WILL OVERCOME MOST OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR. DRIER AIR MOVING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES
BY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS TREND TO WEST/NORTHWEST TOWARD MORNING.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHES OF IFR IN LATE NIGHT
FOG POSSIBLE IN THE CT VALLEY OF MASSACHUSETTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS W OF AFN-ORH-IJD LINE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH AREAS OF
IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG ALONG THE S COAST. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS.
POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS AS
WELL AS IN FOG PATCHES ALONG THE S COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING TO VFR EXCEPT MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS MAY PERSIST IN SHOWERS AND FOG ALONG SE COASTAL AREAS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR OR BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE
WATERS AND MOVES OFF SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT
FROM EAST TO NORTH AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW 25 KNOTS. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD A LITTLE WITH HEIGHTS AROUND
5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. TIMING ON THE ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO A LATER START TIME BUT OTHERWISE THE HEADLINE
REMAINS THE SAME.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS WITH LIGHT WIND AND DIMINISHING SWELL. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL END AROUND MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG WITH POCKECTS OF VISIBILITY A MILE
OR LESS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING...MAINLY ALONG SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS. POSSIBLY AREAS OF FOG AGAIN WED NIGHT ALONG THE S COAST.
SCATTERED TSTMS MAY OCCUR LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 042012
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
412 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SCATTERED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. BECOMING MORE HUMID TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND MORE GENERALLY
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY. BECOMING DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 8 PM...MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS OVER WESTERN
MASS/CONNECTICUT. RADAR SHOWS PATCHY YELLOWS AND ORANGES WHILE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW VSBYS AROUND 10 MILES...EXCEPT 4-5 MILES IN THE
BERKSHIRES. WITH CLOUD BASES 9-10 THOUSAND FEET...EXPECT MUCH OF
THE RAIN ON RADAR IS EVAPORATING ON THE WAY DOWN. WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN OUR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS...SCATTERED SPRINKLES IN THE EAST.

EARLY AFTERNOON OBSERVED TEMPERATURES SHOW A RANGE OF 65 TO 75.
UPPER 60S AND 70S SHOULD COVER THE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS.

TONIGHT...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA. UPPER SHORTWAVE SWINGS OVER
NEW ENGLAND. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET
WILL BE RIGHT OVER US AT 00Z/8 PM CREATING UPPER VENTING. IF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LINGERS THEN WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE WIDELY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. BUT THE
AMOUNT OF EVAPORATION IN PROGRESS SUGGESTS A FACTOR COUNTERACTING
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS.

WE WILL MAKE OUR FINAL CALL ON EVENING POPS BASED ON THE RADAR
DISPLAY BETWEEN 3 AND 4 PM. BUT THE TREND ON THE FORECAST IS FOR
DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER IT WILL
BE STARTING AT 70 PERCENT OR 20 PERCENT OR 5 PERCENT.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AXIS SWEEPS EAST OF OUR AREA BY MORNING...SO
EXPECT A TREND TO CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEW POINTS
UPSTREAM ARE IN THE 50S...THIS SHOULD ALLOW MIN SFC TEMPS IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS BUILDS EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.
CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRY AIR ABOVE 800 MB...AND A MOIST LAYER
AT 800-850 MB. MIXING SHOULD REACH ABOVE 850 MB. THIS SUGGESTS
SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND DISSIPATING SUNDAY
EVENING. TEMPERTURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT
MAX SURFACE TEMPS OF 80-85.

FAIR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEW POINTS RISE A LITTLE TO AROUND 60. EXPECT MIN SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THIS MAY SUPPORT PATCHES OF FOG
DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * WARM FRONT MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST TUE
 * LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAIN POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON WED

OVERVIEW...SEVERAL PLAYERS INFLUENCE THE WEATHER PATTERN AFFECTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THIS COMING WEEK. OUR AREA WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT STRONG EASTWARD MOVING TROUGH ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA AND EJECTING FROM CLOSED LOW SLOWLY APPROACHING CA.
AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...H50 HEIGHTS ARE RELATIVELY
HIGH...BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE LARGE SCALE FLOW IS CHARACTERIZED
BY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SUSCEPTIBILITY FOR TROUGHING ACROSS
THE E CENTRAL CONUS. MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS ON THE
MID WEEK PERIOD WHEN A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH A HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OR PWAT ENVIRONMENT MAY SET THE STAGE FOR
CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAIN BANDS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL PROBABLY FEATURE RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE TO CHALLENGE OF RESOLVING SHORT WAVE TROFS
IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THAT FAR OUT. ALSO...AS NOTED IN THE PRIOR
FORECAST DISCUSSION...NEW ENGLAND MAY AT SOME POINT BY NEXT
WEEKEND OR A LITTLE BEYOND BE SITUATED ON THE PERIPERY OF A RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CONUS AND BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY MCS
ACTIVITY ON THAT PERIPHERY.

DETAILS...

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRY CONDITIONS AS MODELS AGREE UPON
SHORT WAVE RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. H85 TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS COMBINED WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE SUPPORT CURRENT FORECASTS
OF TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE TROF AND WARM FRONT USHER IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
AND MUCH HIGHER PWATS. WILL INDICATE CHANCE POPS ROUGHLY W OF AN
AFN-ORH-IJD LINE ON TUE WHERE K INDICES RISE TO ABOVE 30 FOR A
TIME AND SUGGESTIVE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS. AIR MASS LOOKS
DRIER AND MORE STABLE FURTHER EAST WHERE WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OR LESS POPS. IN DEFERENCE TO SOME INSTABILITY NOTED ON THE
LATEST GFS...WILL INDICATE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUE NIGHT NEAR
THE VT AND NH BORDERS.

WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A CONCERN OF ONE OR BANDS OF SIGNIFICANT TO EXCESSIVE
RAFL SETTING UP AS COLD FRONT DEACCELERATES ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWATS
OVER 2 INCHES. MODEL CONSENSUS ALSO INDICATES K INDICES IN THE MID 30S.
ISOBARS BECOME BAGGY AT THE SURFACE AS A WEAK WAVE ATTEMPTS TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND THE H70 AND
H50 FLOWS ARE PARALLEL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS EVEN
A HINT OF DIVERGENCE WITH THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS. ALL OF THIS IN
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY
TRAINING OF CELLS. THE INSTABILIY AND WIND SHEAR LOOK QUITE MODEST AND
SO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW. THE SIGNAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY/EXCESSIVE
RAIN LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH...HOWEVER...TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE CHANGED POSITIONS FROM 24 HOURS AGO WITH
THE GFS HANGING RAFL OVER THE AREA FOR A TIME WITH A WAVE WHEREAS
THE ECMWF IS NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE. FOR THE POPS HAVE GONE WITH A
MODEL BLEND WITH A SLIGHT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS WHICH SEEMS TO
HAVE BEEN DEMONSTRATING A LITTLE MORE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY THAN
THE ECMWF. ANTICIPATING LOWER DEWPOINTS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE LOWER SINCE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SHORT WAVE TROFS DAYS 6 AND 7 ESPECIALLY IN THE WARM
SEASON. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPS NOT TOO FAR FROM THE LONG TERM
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 8 PM...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LARGE AREA OF RAIN ON
RADAR BUT ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS REACHING THE GROUND. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH EVENING. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BUT MAINLY IN NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS WHERE
1000-1500 FOOT CIGS AND 4-5 MILE VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LINGERING RAIN TAPERS OFF EARLY IN
THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WE THINK
DRY AIR BELOW 5000 FEET WILL OVERCOME MOST OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR. DRIER AIR MOVING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES
BY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS TREND TO WEST/NORTHWEST TOWARD MORNING.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHES OF IFR IN LATE NIGHT
FOG POSSIBLE IN THE CT VALLEY OF MASSACHUSETTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS W OF AFN-ORH-IJD LINE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH AREAS OF
IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG ALONG THE S COAST. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS.
POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS AS
WELL AS IN FOG PATCHES ALONG THE S COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING TO VFR EXCEPT MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS MAY PERSIST IN SHOWERS AND FOG ALONG SE COASTAL AREAS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR OR BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE
WATERS AND MOVES OFF SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT
FROM EAST TO NORTH AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW 25 KNOTS. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD A LITTLE WITH HEIGHTS AROUND
5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. TIMING ON THE ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO A LATER START TIME BUT OTHERWISE THE HEADLINE
REMAINS THE SAME.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS WITH LIGHT WIND AND DIMINISHING SWELL. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL END AROUND MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG WITH POCKECTS OF VISIBILITY A MILE
OR LESS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING...MAINLY ALONG SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS. POSSIBLY AREAS OF FOG AGAIN WED NIGHT ALONG THE S COAST.
SCATTERED TSTMS MAY OCCUR LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KGYX 041902
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
302 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SHOWERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY/...
CURRENT BATCH OF -SHRA OVER SRN AND CENTRAL NH IS THE RESULT OF
700MB DEFORMATION ZONE ON ASSOCIATED UPPER LVL TROUGH TO OUR NW
AND SFC LOW TO THE S. MODELS DO INDICATE THAT THIS FORCING PEAKS
AROUND 18Z AND WEAKENS THRU THIS EVENING AS THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY FROM THE NRN SYSTEM. ALSO...THE MODELS AGREE THAT WE
HAVE PRETTY MUCH SEEN THE FARTHEST EWD AND NWD PROGRESSION OF THE
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES WORKING
INTO INTERIOR YORK/ CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THRU ABOUT 5 PM.
OTHERWISE... THE RAIN OVER SRN NH WILL DIMINISH THRU ABOUT
21-22Z...LEADING TO A MAINLY DRY EVENING HERE...AND ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA.

EVENING TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-UPPR 60S. THE MID-
HIGH CLOUDS ARE LKLY TO LINGER THRU THE EVE...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT.. MINS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 IN THE N...TO AROUND 60
ALONG THE COAST AND IN URBAN SRN NH. THE SECOND UPPER LVL TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO SWING JUST N OF THE CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND COULD
START SEEING A FEW SHRA POPPING UP IN THE MTNS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSES N OF THE CWA AROUND MIDDAY...SO
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHRA IN THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS A FEW TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...GIVEN SOME LOWERING 500MB HEIGHTS...AND INCREASING LOW LVL
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY-PARTLY SUNNY DAY IN THE
SRN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL TOP IN THE MID 70S N...AND ON THE
COAST...TO THE LOW 80S IN SRN NH AND INTERIOR SW ME.

SUN NIGHT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY CLEAR...BUT TDS WILL BE CREEPING UP
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY EVENING...AND THIS WILL KEEP MINS
GENERALLY IN THIS RANGE AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE A HOT DAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR
14-16 C OVER PORTIONS OF NH AND MAINE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS. A SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. OTHERWISE MID 80S ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND MOVES OFFSHORE. A SHORT
WAVE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS HELPING A SURFACE LOW DEEPEN
AND EJECT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES AND WARM SHOWERS WILL KICK OFF ACROSS
NH TUESDAY MORNING... REACHING MAINE BY THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND IN THE HEAT OF THE
DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WELL NORTH BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND FRONTOGENESIS
FOR SOME STRONG STORMS.

SHOWERS MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BEFORE WE SEE
ANOTHER INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK UNDERNEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE DOME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME IFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
CREATING MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME ENHANCED S-SW FLOW ALONG THE SHORE IN
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SUN AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS WILL
STILL SEE SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 3-4 FT.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AND THEN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF
THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AS DO SEAS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

CEMPA/HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 041902
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
302 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SHOWERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY/...
CURRENT BATCH OF -SHRA OVER SRN AND CENTRAL NH IS THE RESULT OF
700MB DEFORMATION ZONE ON ASSOCIATED UPPER LVL TROUGH TO OUR NW
AND SFC LOW TO THE S. MODELS DO INDICATE THAT THIS FORCING PEAKS
AROUND 18Z AND WEAKENS THRU THIS EVENING AS THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY FROM THE NRN SYSTEM. ALSO...THE MODELS AGREE THAT WE
HAVE PRETTY MUCH SEEN THE FARTHEST EWD AND NWD PROGRESSION OF THE
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES WORKING
INTO INTERIOR YORK/ CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THRU ABOUT 5 PM.
OTHERWISE... THE RAIN OVER SRN NH WILL DIMINISH THRU ABOUT
21-22Z...LEADING TO A MAINLY DRY EVENING HERE...AND ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA.

EVENING TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-UPPR 60S. THE MID-
HIGH CLOUDS ARE LKLY TO LINGER THRU THE EVE...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT.. MINS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 IN THE N...TO AROUND 60
ALONG THE COAST AND IN URBAN SRN NH. THE SECOND UPPER LVL TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO SWING JUST N OF THE CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND COULD
START SEEING A FEW SHRA POPPING UP IN THE MTNS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSES N OF THE CWA AROUND MIDDAY...SO
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHRA IN THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS A FEW TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...GIVEN SOME LOWERING 500MB HEIGHTS...AND INCREASING LOW LVL
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY-PARTLY SUNNY DAY IN THE
SRN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL TOP IN THE MID 70S N...AND ON THE
COAST...TO THE LOW 80S IN SRN NH AND INTERIOR SW ME.

SUN NIGHT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY CLEAR...BUT TDS WILL BE CREEPING UP
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY EVENING...AND THIS WILL KEEP MINS
GENERALLY IN THIS RANGE AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE A HOT DAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR
14-16 C OVER PORTIONS OF NH AND MAINE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS. A SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. OTHERWISE MID 80S ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND MOVES OFFSHORE. A SHORT
WAVE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS HELPING A SURFACE LOW DEEPEN
AND EJECT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES AND WARM SHOWERS WILL KICK OFF ACROSS
NH TUESDAY MORNING... REACHING MAINE BY THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND IN THE HEAT OF THE
DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WELL NORTH BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND FRONTOGENESIS
FOR SOME STRONG STORMS.

SHOWERS MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BEFORE WE SEE
ANOTHER INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK UNDERNEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE DOME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME IFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
CREATING MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME ENHANCED S-SW FLOW ALONG THE SHORE IN
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SUN AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS WILL
STILL SEE SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 3-4 FT.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AND THEN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF
THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AS DO SEAS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

CEMPA/HANES




000
FXUS61 KBOX 041820
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
220 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SCATTERED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. A TRANSITION PERIOD IS LIKELY
MID NEXT WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THROUGH 8 PM...MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS OVER WESTERN
MASS/CONNECTICUT. RADAR SHOWS PATCHY YELLOWS AND ORANGES WHILE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW VSBYS AROUND 10 MILES...EXCEPT 4-5 MILES IN THE
BERKSHIRES. WITH CLOUD BASES 9-10 THOUSAND FEET...EXPECT MUCH OF
THE RAIN ON RADAR IS EVAPORATING ON THE WAY DOWN. WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN OUR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS...SCATTERED SPRINKLES IN THE EAST.

EARLY AFTERNOON OBSERVED TEMPERATURES SHOW A RANGE OF 65 TO 75.
UPPER 60S AND 70S SHOULD COVER THE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS.

TONIGHT...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA. UPPER SHORTWAVE SWINGS OVER
NEW ENGLAND. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET
WILL BE RIGHT OVER US AT 00Z/8 PM CREATING UPPER VENTING. IF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LINGERS THEN WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE WIDELY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. BUT THE
AMOUNT OF EVAPORATION IN PROGRESS SUGGESTS A FACTOR COUNTERACTING
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS.

WE WILL MAKE OUR FINAL CALL ON EVENING POPS BASED ON THE RADAR
DISPLAY BETWEEN 3 AND 4 PM. BUT THE TREND ON THE FORECAST IS FOR
DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER IT WILL
BE STARTING AT 70 PERCENT OR 20 PERCENT OR 5 PERCENT.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AXIS SWEEPS EAST OF OUR AREA BY MORNING...SO
EXPECT A TREND TO CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEW POINTS
UPSTREAM ARE IN THE 50S...THIS SHOULD ALLOW MIN SFC TEMPS IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS BUILDS EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.
CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRY AIR ABOVE 800 MB...AND A MOIST LAYER
AT 800-850 MB. MIXING SHOULD REACH ABOVE 850 MB. THIS SUGGESTS
SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND DISSIPATING SUNDAY
EVENING. TEMPERTURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT
MAX SURFACE TEMPS OF 80-85.

FAIR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEW POINTS RISE A LITTLE TO AROUND 60. EXPECT MIN SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THIS MAY SUPPORT PATCHES OF FOG
DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...WITH 04.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
COMING IN...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MID AND LONG TERM
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...ALTHOUGH TYPICAL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
LONG TERM. STRONG RIDGING EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ON THE SW QUADRANT OF A STRONG NRN STREAM VORTEX
DEVELOPING ACROSS N CENTRAL CANADA. THE FLATTENING WAVE WILL
ARRIVE MID WEEK...WITH HIGH PWATS AND INSTABILITY IN TOW WHICH MAY
NEED TO BE WATCHED. THERE ARE TIMING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY REGARDING
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FOR TUE...BUT WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THIS ROUND OF GUIDANCE A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL MODELS
WILL WORK WELL AS A BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON INTO MON NIGHT...WARM RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND
WITH HIGH PRES AT THE SFC. MAINLY DRY WX PREVAILS WITH MODERATING
HIGHS/LOWS AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY LATE
MON. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W. MODELS
INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE AS PWATS APPROACH 2 STD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL WITH K-VALUES OVER 30. A WARM FRONT WILL BE THE
INITIAL SFC REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH PRES REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF
TUE. THEREFORE...CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/T-STORM WITH THE WARM
FRONTAL APPROACH MAY BE QUITE LOW TO NEAR ZERO THE FURTHER E ONE
GOES. IN FACT...THE BEST AXIS OF SFC CAPE/THETA-E RIDGE IS MAINLY
W OF THE MA/NY BORDER. THEREFORE...CHANCE POPS W WILL BE LOWERED
TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO NIL POPS FURTHER E. WILL INCLUDE THUNDER WITH
THIS FORECAST GIVEN THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS.

WED...AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...THIS IS WHERE THE MODEL
SOLUTION DIVERGENCE BEGINS TO SHOW MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. MAINLY WITH
THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GFS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE
WHILE ECMWF/CMC CONTINUES TO LINGER AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
PARALLEL THE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SINCE
THE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT
SOME SFC BASED CAPE EXCEEDING 1000J/KG AND HIGH K-VALUES...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE TS...BUT GIVEN THE LACKING SHEAR...REMAIN
SOMEWHAT DUBIOUS OF SEVERE CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

THU...THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
FURTHER SOUTHEAST...ALBEIT SLOWLY. WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE POPS FROM
N-S DURING THE DAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT BEFORE WE CAN NAIL DOWN
TIMING FOR THE LATE WEEK.

FRI AND SAT...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS BUT WITH ZONAL FLOW...A SERIES
OF RIDGE/TROUGH COUPLETS IS LIKELY TO YIELD PERIODS OF
DRY/POTENTIALLY WET PERIODS ARE LIKELY. INTERESTINGLY...WITH SRN
NEW ENGLAND ON THE RIDGE PERIPHERY MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR MCS
STEERING FLOW AS WELL. STILL WAY TOO MANY VARIABLES TO NAIL
ANYTHING DOWN...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOW TO NIL POPS SHOULD
COVER THE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 8 PM...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LARGE AREA OF RAIN ON
RADAR BUT ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS REACHING THE GROUND. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH EVENING. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BUT MAINLY IN NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS WHERE
1000-1500 FOOT CIGS AND 4-5 MILE VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LINGERING RAIN TAPERS OFF EARLY IN
THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WE THINK
DRY AIR BELOW 5000 FEET WILL OVERCOME MOST OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR. DRIER AIR MOVING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES
BY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS TREND TO WEST/NORTHWEST TOWARD MORNING.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHES OF IFR IN LATE NIGHT
FOG POSSIBLE IN THE CT VALLEY OF MASSACHUSETTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH HIGH PRES. SEA BREEZES LIKELY.

TUE AND WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. FIRST A WARM FRONT TUE...THEN A
COLD FRONT WED MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH PERIODIC MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE VFR. SOME FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE
WATERS AND MOVES OFF SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT
FROM EAST TO NORTH AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW 25 KNOTS. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD A LITTLE WITH HEIGHTS AROUND
5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. TIMING ON THE ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO A LATER START TIME BUT OTHERWISE THE HEADLINE
REMAINS THE SAME.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS WITH LIGHT WIND AND DIMINISHING SWELL. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL END AROUND MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LINGERING SWELL RECEDES BELOW 5 FT SUN
NIGHT. HIGH PRES THEN BRINGS QUIET BOATING WEATHER TO THE WATERS
THROUGH MON.

TUE AND WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WARM FRONT ON TUE...THEN A COLD
FRONT ON WED WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W. WHILE WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE S-SE...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SEAS IS ALSO LIKELY TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR
FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM
     EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 041820
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
220 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SCATTERED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. A TRANSITION PERIOD IS LIKELY
MID NEXT WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THROUGH 8 PM...MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS OVER WESTERN
MASS/CONNECTICUT. RADAR SHOWS PATCHY YELLOWS AND ORANGES WHILE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW VSBYS AROUND 10 MILES...EXCEPT 4-5 MILES IN THE
BERKSHIRES. WITH CLOUD BASES 9-10 THOUSAND FEET...EXPECT MUCH OF
THE RAIN ON RADAR IS EVAPORATING ON THE WAY DOWN. WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN OUR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS...SCATTERED SPRINKLES IN THE EAST.

EARLY AFTERNOON OBSERVED TEMPERATURES SHOW A RANGE OF 65 TO 75.
UPPER 60S AND 70S SHOULD COVER THE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS.

TONIGHT...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA. UPPER SHORTWAVE SWINGS OVER
NEW ENGLAND. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET
WILL BE RIGHT OVER US AT 00Z/8 PM CREATING UPPER VENTING. IF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LINGERS THEN WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE WIDELY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. BUT THE
AMOUNT OF EVAPORATION IN PROGRESS SUGGESTS A FACTOR COUNTERACTING
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS.

WE WILL MAKE OUR FINAL CALL ON EVENING POPS BASED ON THE RADAR
DISPLAY BETWEEN 3 AND 4 PM. BUT THE TREND ON THE FORECAST IS FOR
DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER IT WILL
BE STARTING AT 70 PERCENT OR 20 PERCENT OR 5 PERCENT.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AXIS SWEEPS EAST OF OUR AREA BY MORNING...SO
EXPECT A TREND TO CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEW POINTS
UPSTREAM ARE IN THE 50S...THIS SHOULD ALLOW MIN SFC TEMPS IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS BUILDS EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.
CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRY AIR ABOVE 800 MB...AND A MOIST LAYER
AT 800-850 MB. MIXING SHOULD REACH ABOVE 850 MB. THIS SUGGESTS
SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND DISSIPATING SUNDAY
EVENING. TEMPERTURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT
MAX SURFACE TEMPS OF 80-85.

FAIR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEW POINTS RISE A LITTLE TO AROUND 60. EXPECT MIN SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THIS MAY SUPPORT PATCHES OF FOG
DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...WITH 04.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
COMING IN...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MID AND LONG TERM
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...ALTHOUGH TYPICAL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
LONG TERM. STRONG RIDGING EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ON THE SW QUADRANT OF A STRONG NRN STREAM VORTEX
DEVELOPING ACROSS N CENTRAL CANADA. THE FLATTENING WAVE WILL
ARRIVE MID WEEK...WITH HIGH PWATS AND INSTABILITY IN TOW WHICH MAY
NEED TO BE WATCHED. THERE ARE TIMING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY REGARDING
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FOR TUE...BUT WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THIS ROUND OF GUIDANCE A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL MODELS
WILL WORK WELL AS A BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON INTO MON NIGHT...WARM RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND
WITH HIGH PRES AT THE SFC. MAINLY DRY WX PREVAILS WITH MODERATING
HIGHS/LOWS AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY LATE
MON. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W. MODELS
INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE AS PWATS APPROACH 2 STD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL WITH K-VALUES OVER 30. A WARM FRONT WILL BE THE
INITIAL SFC REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH PRES REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF
TUE. THEREFORE...CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/T-STORM WITH THE WARM
FRONTAL APPROACH MAY BE QUITE LOW TO NEAR ZERO THE FURTHER E ONE
GOES. IN FACT...THE BEST AXIS OF SFC CAPE/THETA-E RIDGE IS MAINLY
W OF THE MA/NY BORDER. THEREFORE...CHANCE POPS W WILL BE LOWERED
TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO NIL POPS FURTHER E. WILL INCLUDE THUNDER WITH
THIS FORECAST GIVEN THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS.

WED...AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...THIS IS WHERE THE MODEL
SOLUTION DIVERGENCE BEGINS TO SHOW MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. MAINLY WITH
THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GFS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE
WHILE ECMWF/CMC CONTINUES TO LINGER AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
PARALLEL THE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SINCE
THE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT
SOME SFC BASED CAPE EXCEEDING 1000J/KG AND HIGH K-VALUES...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE TS...BUT GIVEN THE LACKING SHEAR...REMAIN
SOMEWHAT DUBIOUS OF SEVERE CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

THU...THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
FURTHER SOUTHEAST...ALBEIT SLOWLY. WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE POPS FROM
N-S DURING THE DAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT BEFORE WE CAN NAIL DOWN
TIMING FOR THE LATE WEEK.

FRI AND SAT...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS BUT WITH ZONAL FLOW...A SERIES
OF RIDGE/TROUGH COUPLETS IS LIKELY TO YIELD PERIODS OF
DRY/POTENTIALLY WET PERIODS ARE LIKELY. INTERESTINGLY...WITH SRN
NEW ENGLAND ON THE RIDGE PERIPHERY MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR MCS
STEERING FLOW AS WELL. STILL WAY TOO MANY VARIABLES TO NAIL
ANYTHING DOWN...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOW TO NIL POPS SHOULD
COVER THE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 8 PM...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LARGE AREA OF RAIN ON
RADAR BUT ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS REACHING THE GROUND. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH EVENING. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BUT MAINLY IN NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS WHERE
1000-1500 FOOT CIGS AND 4-5 MILE VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LINGERING RAIN TAPERS OFF EARLY IN
THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WE THINK
DRY AIR BELOW 5000 FEET WILL OVERCOME MOST OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR. DRIER AIR MOVING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES
BY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS TREND TO WEST/NORTHWEST TOWARD MORNING.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHES OF IFR IN LATE NIGHT
FOG POSSIBLE IN THE CT VALLEY OF MASSACHUSETTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH HIGH PRES. SEA BREEZES LIKELY.

TUE AND WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. FIRST A WARM FRONT TUE...THEN A
COLD FRONT WED MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH PERIODIC MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE VFR. SOME FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE
WATERS AND MOVES OFF SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT
FROM EAST TO NORTH AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW 25 KNOTS. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD A LITTLE WITH HEIGHTS AROUND
5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. TIMING ON THE ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO A LATER START TIME BUT OTHERWISE THE HEADLINE
REMAINS THE SAME.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS WITH LIGHT WIND AND DIMINISHING SWELL. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL END AROUND MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LINGERING SWELL RECEDES BELOW 5 FT SUN
NIGHT. HIGH PRES THEN BRINGS QUIET BOATING WEATHER TO THE WATERS
THROUGH MON.

TUE AND WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WARM FRONT ON TUE...THEN A COLD
FRONT ON WED WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W. WHILE WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE S-SE...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SEAS IS ALSO LIKELY TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR
FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM
     EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 041820
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
220 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SCATTERED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. A TRANSITION PERIOD IS LIKELY
MID NEXT WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THROUGH 8 PM...MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS OVER WESTERN
MASS/CONNECTICUT. RADAR SHOWS PATCHY YELLOWS AND ORANGES WHILE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW VSBYS AROUND 10 MILES...EXCEPT 4-5 MILES IN THE
BERKSHIRES. WITH CLOUD BASES 9-10 THOUSAND FEET...EXPECT MUCH OF
THE RAIN ON RADAR IS EVAPORATING ON THE WAY DOWN. WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN OUR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS...SCATTERED SPRINKLES IN THE EAST.

EARLY AFTERNOON OBSERVED TEMPERATURES SHOW A RANGE OF 65 TO 75.
UPPER 60S AND 70S SHOULD COVER THE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS.

TONIGHT...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA. UPPER SHORTWAVE SWINGS OVER
NEW ENGLAND. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET
WILL BE RIGHT OVER US AT 00Z/8 PM CREATING UPPER VENTING. IF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LINGERS THEN WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE WIDELY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. BUT THE
AMOUNT OF EVAPORATION IN PROGRESS SUGGESTS A FACTOR COUNTERACTING
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS.

WE WILL MAKE OUR FINAL CALL ON EVENING POPS BASED ON THE RADAR
DISPLAY BETWEEN 3 AND 4 PM. BUT THE TREND ON THE FORECAST IS FOR
DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER IT WILL
BE STARTING AT 70 PERCENT OR 20 PERCENT OR 5 PERCENT.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AXIS SWEEPS EAST OF OUR AREA BY MORNING...SO
EXPECT A TREND TO CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEW POINTS
UPSTREAM ARE IN THE 50S...THIS SHOULD ALLOW MIN SFC TEMPS IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS BUILDS EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.
CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRY AIR ABOVE 800 MB...AND A MOIST LAYER
AT 800-850 MB. MIXING SHOULD REACH ABOVE 850 MB. THIS SUGGESTS
SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND DISSIPATING SUNDAY
EVENING. TEMPERTURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT
MAX SURFACE TEMPS OF 80-85.

FAIR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEW POINTS RISE A LITTLE TO AROUND 60. EXPECT MIN SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THIS MAY SUPPORT PATCHES OF FOG
DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...WITH 04.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
COMING IN...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MID AND LONG TERM
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...ALTHOUGH TYPICAL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
LONG TERM. STRONG RIDGING EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ON THE SW QUADRANT OF A STRONG NRN STREAM VORTEX
DEVELOPING ACROSS N CENTRAL CANADA. THE FLATTENING WAVE WILL
ARRIVE MID WEEK...WITH HIGH PWATS AND INSTABILITY IN TOW WHICH MAY
NEED TO BE WATCHED. THERE ARE TIMING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY REGARDING
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FOR TUE...BUT WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THIS ROUND OF GUIDANCE A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL MODELS
WILL WORK WELL AS A BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON INTO MON NIGHT...WARM RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND
WITH HIGH PRES AT THE SFC. MAINLY DRY WX PREVAILS WITH MODERATING
HIGHS/LOWS AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY LATE
MON. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W. MODELS
INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE AS PWATS APPROACH 2 STD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL WITH K-VALUES OVER 30. A WARM FRONT WILL BE THE
INITIAL SFC REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH PRES REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF
TUE. THEREFORE...CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/T-STORM WITH THE WARM
FRONTAL APPROACH MAY BE QUITE LOW TO NEAR ZERO THE FURTHER E ONE
GOES. IN FACT...THE BEST AXIS OF SFC CAPE/THETA-E RIDGE IS MAINLY
W OF THE MA/NY BORDER. THEREFORE...CHANCE POPS W WILL BE LOWERED
TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO NIL POPS FURTHER E. WILL INCLUDE THUNDER WITH
THIS FORECAST GIVEN THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS.

WED...AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...THIS IS WHERE THE MODEL
SOLUTION DIVERGENCE BEGINS TO SHOW MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. MAINLY WITH
THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GFS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE
WHILE ECMWF/CMC CONTINUES TO LINGER AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
PARALLEL THE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SINCE
THE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT
SOME SFC BASED CAPE EXCEEDING 1000J/KG AND HIGH K-VALUES...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE TS...BUT GIVEN THE LACKING SHEAR...REMAIN
SOMEWHAT DUBIOUS OF SEVERE CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

THU...THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
FURTHER SOUTHEAST...ALBEIT SLOWLY. WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE POPS FROM
N-S DURING THE DAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT BEFORE WE CAN NAIL DOWN
TIMING FOR THE LATE WEEK.

FRI AND SAT...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS BUT WITH ZONAL FLOW...A SERIES
OF RIDGE/TROUGH COUPLETS IS LIKELY TO YIELD PERIODS OF
DRY/POTENTIALLY WET PERIODS ARE LIKELY. INTERESTINGLY...WITH SRN
NEW ENGLAND ON THE RIDGE PERIPHERY MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR MCS
STEERING FLOW AS WELL. STILL WAY TOO MANY VARIABLES TO NAIL
ANYTHING DOWN...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOW TO NIL POPS SHOULD
COVER THE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 8 PM...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LARGE AREA OF RAIN ON
RADAR BUT ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS REACHING THE GROUND. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH EVENING. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BUT MAINLY IN NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS WHERE
1000-1500 FOOT CIGS AND 4-5 MILE VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LINGERING RAIN TAPERS OFF EARLY IN
THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WE THINK
DRY AIR BELOW 5000 FEET WILL OVERCOME MOST OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR. DRIER AIR MOVING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES
BY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS TREND TO WEST/NORTHWEST TOWARD MORNING.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHES OF IFR IN LATE NIGHT
FOG POSSIBLE IN THE CT VALLEY OF MASSACHUSETTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH HIGH PRES. SEA BREEZES LIKELY.

TUE AND WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. FIRST A WARM FRONT TUE...THEN A
COLD FRONT WED MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH PERIODIC MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE VFR. SOME FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE
WATERS AND MOVES OFF SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT
FROM EAST TO NORTH AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW 25 KNOTS. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD A LITTLE WITH HEIGHTS AROUND
5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. TIMING ON THE ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO A LATER START TIME BUT OTHERWISE THE HEADLINE
REMAINS THE SAME.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS WITH LIGHT WIND AND DIMINISHING SWELL. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL END AROUND MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LINGERING SWELL RECEDES BELOW 5 FT SUN
NIGHT. HIGH PRES THEN BRINGS QUIET BOATING WEATHER TO THE WATERS
THROUGH MON.

TUE AND WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WARM FRONT ON TUE...THEN A COLD
FRONT ON WED WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W. WHILE WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE S-SE...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SEAS IS ALSO LIKELY TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR
FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM
     EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 041820
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
220 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SCATTERED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. A TRANSITION PERIOD IS LIKELY
MID NEXT WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THROUGH 8 PM...MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS OVER WESTERN
MASS/CONNECTICUT. RADAR SHOWS PATCHY YELLOWS AND ORANGES WHILE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW VSBYS AROUND 10 MILES...EXCEPT 4-5 MILES IN THE
BERKSHIRES. WITH CLOUD BASES 9-10 THOUSAND FEET...EXPECT MUCH OF
THE RAIN ON RADAR IS EVAPORATING ON THE WAY DOWN. WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN OUR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS...SCATTERED SPRINKLES IN THE EAST.

EARLY AFTERNOON OBSERVED TEMPERATURES SHOW A RANGE OF 65 TO 75.
UPPER 60S AND 70S SHOULD COVER THE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS.

TONIGHT...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA. UPPER SHORTWAVE SWINGS OVER
NEW ENGLAND. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET
WILL BE RIGHT OVER US AT 00Z/8 PM CREATING UPPER VENTING. IF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LINGERS THEN WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE WIDELY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. BUT THE
AMOUNT OF EVAPORATION IN PROGRESS SUGGESTS A FACTOR COUNTERACTING
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS.

WE WILL MAKE OUR FINAL CALL ON EVENING POPS BASED ON THE RADAR
DISPLAY BETWEEN 3 AND 4 PM. BUT THE TREND ON THE FORECAST IS FOR
DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER IT WILL
BE STARTING AT 70 PERCENT OR 20 PERCENT OR 5 PERCENT.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AXIS SWEEPS EAST OF OUR AREA BY MORNING...SO
EXPECT A TREND TO CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEW POINTS
UPSTREAM ARE IN THE 50S...THIS SHOULD ALLOW MIN SFC TEMPS IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS BUILDS EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.
CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRY AIR ABOVE 800 MB...AND A MOIST LAYER
AT 800-850 MB. MIXING SHOULD REACH ABOVE 850 MB. THIS SUGGESTS
SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND DISSIPATING SUNDAY
EVENING. TEMPERTURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT
MAX SURFACE TEMPS OF 80-85.

FAIR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEW POINTS RISE A LITTLE TO AROUND 60. EXPECT MIN SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THIS MAY SUPPORT PATCHES OF FOG
DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...WITH 04.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
COMING IN...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MID AND LONG TERM
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...ALTHOUGH TYPICAL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
LONG TERM. STRONG RIDGING EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ON THE SW QUADRANT OF A STRONG NRN STREAM VORTEX
DEVELOPING ACROSS N CENTRAL CANADA. THE FLATTENING WAVE WILL
ARRIVE MID WEEK...WITH HIGH PWATS AND INSTABILITY IN TOW WHICH MAY
NEED TO BE WATCHED. THERE ARE TIMING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY REGARDING
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FOR TUE...BUT WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THIS ROUND OF GUIDANCE A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL MODELS
WILL WORK WELL AS A BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON INTO MON NIGHT...WARM RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND
WITH HIGH PRES AT THE SFC. MAINLY DRY WX PREVAILS WITH MODERATING
HIGHS/LOWS AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY LATE
MON. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W. MODELS
INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE AS PWATS APPROACH 2 STD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL WITH K-VALUES OVER 30. A WARM FRONT WILL BE THE
INITIAL SFC REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH PRES REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF
TUE. THEREFORE...CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/T-STORM WITH THE WARM
FRONTAL APPROACH MAY BE QUITE LOW TO NEAR ZERO THE FURTHER E ONE
GOES. IN FACT...THE BEST AXIS OF SFC CAPE/THETA-E RIDGE IS MAINLY
W OF THE MA/NY BORDER. THEREFORE...CHANCE POPS W WILL BE LOWERED
TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO NIL POPS FURTHER E. WILL INCLUDE THUNDER WITH
THIS FORECAST GIVEN THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS.

WED...AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...THIS IS WHERE THE MODEL
SOLUTION DIVERGENCE BEGINS TO SHOW MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. MAINLY WITH
THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GFS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE
WHILE ECMWF/CMC CONTINUES TO LINGER AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
PARALLEL THE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SINCE
THE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT
SOME SFC BASED CAPE EXCEEDING 1000J/KG AND HIGH K-VALUES...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE TS...BUT GIVEN THE LACKING SHEAR...REMAIN
SOMEWHAT DUBIOUS OF SEVERE CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

THU...THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
FURTHER SOUTHEAST...ALBEIT SLOWLY. WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE POPS FROM
N-S DURING THE DAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT BEFORE WE CAN NAIL DOWN
TIMING FOR THE LATE WEEK.

FRI AND SAT...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS BUT WITH ZONAL FLOW...A SERIES
OF RIDGE/TROUGH COUPLETS IS LIKELY TO YIELD PERIODS OF
DRY/POTENTIALLY WET PERIODS ARE LIKELY. INTERESTINGLY...WITH SRN
NEW ENGLAND ON THE RIDGE PERIPHERY MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR MCS
STEERING FLOW AS WELL. STILL WAY TOO MANY VARIABLES TO NAIL
ANYTHING DOWN...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOW TO NIL POPS SHOULD
COVER THE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 8 PM...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LARGE AREA OF RAIN ON
RADAR BUT ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS REACHING THE GROUND. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH EVENING. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BUT MAINLY IN NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS WHERE
1000-1500 FOOT CIGS AND 4-5 MILE VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LINGERING RAIN TAPERS OFF EARLY IN
THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WE THINK
DRY AIR BELOW 5000 FEET WILL OVERCOME MOST OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR. DRIER AIR MOVING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES
BY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS TREND TO WEST/NORTHWEST TOWARD MORNING.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHES OF IFR IN LATE NIGHT
FOG POSSIBLE IN THE CT VALLEY OF MASSACHUSETTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH HIGH PRES. SEA BREEZES LIKELY.

TUE AND WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. FIRST A WARM FRONT TUE...THEN A
COLD FRONT WED MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH PERIODIC MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE VFR. SOME FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE
WATERS AND MOVES OFF SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT
FROM EAST TO NORTH AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW 25 KNOTS. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD A LITTLE WITH HEIGHTS AROUND
5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. TIMING ON THE ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO A LATER START TIME BUT OTHERWISE THE HEADLINE
REMAINS THE SAME.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS WITH LIGHT WIND AND DIMINISHING SWELL. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL END AROUND MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LINGERING SWELL RECEDES BELOW 5 FT SUN
NIGHT. HIGH PRES THEN BRINGS QUIET BOATING WEATHER TO THE WATERS
THROUGH MON.

TUE AND WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WARM FRONT ON TUE...THEN A COLD
FRONT ON WED WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W. WHILE WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE S-SE...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SEAS IS ALSO LIKELY TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR
FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM
     EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KGYX 041609
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1209 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND COULD BRING A STRAY
SHOWER TO THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE
TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1205 PM...RADAR ECHOES LOOK MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN WHATS ACTUALLY
REACHING THE GROUND...AND COULD SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN IN SHOWERS THRU ABOUT MID AFTERNOON IN SW NH...WITH SOME
SPKLS JUST TO THE N AND E OF THERE. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS...AT
LEAST RAP/HRRR...ALONG WITH 12Z NAM12...SHOW THAT TREND WELL THRU
THE AFTERNOON...WITH ANY PRECIP WINDING DOWN AFTER 18-19Z. ALSO
LOWERED MAXES A DEGREE OR SO BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND THE CLOUD
COVER.

920 AM...SOME FINE TUNING OF POPS/SKY THRU TODAY AS WE GET SOME
OVERRUNNING FROM DEVELOPING SFC LOW S OF NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN VERY
DRY LOW LEVELS...EXPECTING ANY SHRA THAT MAKE INTO CWA TO BE
LIGHT /OR JUST SPRINKLES/ AS THEY FALL FROM MID-DECK...MAINLY S
AND W OF A LINE FROM KHIE-KCON-KPSM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE WINDING
DOWN BETWEEN 21Z AND SUNSET. MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SUNNY BREAKS IN MOST
SPOTS. EXPECT THE THE MOST SUN WILL BE IN INTERIOR WRN AND CENTRAL
ME.

640 AM...BASED ON SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENT RADAR
MOSAIC...I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD POPS UPWARD OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1ST PERIOD GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT THE LATEST MESONET VALUES FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. A
1010 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA. FOR TODAY...CLOUDS
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SURFACE
LOW PASSING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST IN THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ALOFT AND
EVENTUALLY AT THE SURFACE AS WELL. ON MONDAY THERE SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD 80S AND EVEN POTENTIALLY A FEW 90S. A SEA BREEZE WILL
BE LIKELY AT THE COAST AND WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
THERE.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES BUT A SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT OVER MUCH OF MAINE
AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BEYOND THIS THE TWO MAIN FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE A BIT.
GFS PUSHES THE TROUGH AND FRONT THROUGH FULLY WHILE THE ECMWF
LINGERS THE BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH
THE FRONT LINGERING OFFSHORE... VARIOUS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT AND BRING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PRIMARILY
TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/SCHWIBS
SHORT TERM...SCHWIBS
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 041609
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1209 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND COULD BRING A STRAY
SHOWER TO THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE
TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1205 PM...RADAR ECHOES LOOK MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN WHATS ACTUALLY
REACHING THE GROUND...AND COULD SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN IN SHOWERS THRU ABOUT MID AFTERNOON IN SW NH...WITH SOME
SPKLS JUST TO THE N AND E OF THERE. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS...AT
LEAST RAP/HRRR...ALONG WITH 12Z NAM12...SHOW THAT TREND WELL THRU
THE AFTERNOON...WITH ANY PRECIP WINDING DOWN AFTER 18-19Z. ALSO
LOWERED MAXES A DEGREE OR SO BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND THE CLOUD
COVER.

920 AM...SOME FINE TUNING OF POPS/SKY THRU TODAY AS WE GET SOME
OVERRUNNING FROM DEVELOPING SFC LOW S OF NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN VERY
DRY LOW LEVELS...EXPECTING ANY SHRA THAT MAKE INTO CWA TO BE
LIGHT /OR JUST SPRINKLES/ AS THEY FALL FROM MID-DECK...MAINLY S
AND W OF A LINE FROM KHIE-KCON-KPSM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE WINDING
DOWN BETWEEN 21Z AND SUNSET. MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SUNNY BREAKS IN MOST
SPOTS. EXPECT THE THE MOST SUN WILL BE IN INTERIOR WRN AND CENTRAL
ME.

640 AM...BASED ON SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENT RADAR
MOSAIC...I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD POPS UPWARD OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1ST PERIOD GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT THE LATEST MESONET VALUES FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. A
1010 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA. FOR TODAY...CLOUDS
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SURFACE
LOW PASSING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST IN THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ALOFT AND
EVENTUALLY AT THE SURFACE AS WELL. ON MONDAY THERE SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD 80S AND EVEN POTENTIALLY A FEW 90S. A SEA BREEZE WILL
BE LIKELY AT THE COAST AND WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
THERE.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES BUT A SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT OVER MUCH OF MAINE
AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BEYOND THIS THE TWO MAIN FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE A BIT.
GFS PUSHES THE TROUGH AND FRONT THROUGH FULLY WHILE THE ECMWF
LINGERS THE BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH
THE FRONT LINGERING OFFSHORE... VARIOUS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT AND BRING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PRIMARILY
TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/SCHWIBS
SHORT TERM...SCHWIBS
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 041609
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1209 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND COULD BRING A STRAY
SHOWER TO THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE
TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1205 PM...RADAR ECHOES LOOK MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN WHATS ACTUALLY
REACHING THE GROUND...AND COULD SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN IN SHOWERS THRU ABOUT MID AFTERNOON IN SW NH...WITH SOME
SPKLS JUST TO THE N AND E OF THERE. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS...AT
LEAST RAP/HRRR...ALONG WITH 12Z NAM12...SHOW THAT TREND WELL THRU
THE AFTERNOON...WITH ANY PRECIP WINDING DOWN AFTER 18-19Z. ALSO
LOWERED MAXES A DEGREE OR SO BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND THE CLOUD
COVER.

920 AM...SOME FINE TUNING OF POPS/SKY THRU TODAY AS WE GET SOME
OVERRUNNING FROM DEVELOPING SFC LOW S OF NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN VERY
DRY LOW LEVELS...EXPECTING ANY SHRA THAT MAKE INTO CWA TO BE
LIGHT /OR JUST SPRINKLES/ AS THEY FALL FROM MID-DECK...MAINLY S
AND W OF A LINE FROM KHIE-KCON-KPSM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE WINDING
DOWN BETWEEN 21Z AND SUNSET. MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SUNNY BREAKS IN MOST
SPOTS. EXPECT THE THE MOST SUN WILL BE IN INTERIOR WRN AND CENTRAL
ME.

640 AM...BASED ON SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENT RADAR
MOSAIC...I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD POPS UPWARD OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1ST PERIOD GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT THE LATEST MESONET VALUES FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. A
1010 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA. FOR TODAY...CLOUDS
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SURFACE
LOW PASSING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST IN THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ALOFT AND
EVENTUALLY AT THE SURFACE AS WELL. ON MONDAY THERE SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD 80S AND EVEN POTENTIALLY A FEW 90S. A SEA BREEZE WILL
BE LIKELY AT THE COAST AND WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
THERE.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES BUT A SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT OVER MUCH OF MAINE
AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BEYOND THIS THE TWO MAIN FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE A BIT.
GFS PUSHES THE TROUGH AND FRONT THROUGH FULLY WHILE THE ECMWF
LINGERS THE BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH
THE FRONT LINGERING OFFSHORE... VARIOUS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT AND BRING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PRIMARILY
TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/SCHWIBS
SHORT TERM...SCHWIBS
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 041609
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1209 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND COULD BRING A STRAY
SHOWER TO THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE
TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1205 PM...RADAR ECHOES LOOK MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN WHATS ACTUALLY
REACHING THE GROUND...AND COULD SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN IN SHOWERS THRU ABOUT MID AFTERNOON IN SW NH...WITH SOME
SPKLS JUST TO THE N AND E OF THERE. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS...AT
LEAST RAP/HRRR...ALONG WITH 12Z NAM12...SHOW THAT TREND WELL THRU
THE AFTERNOON...WITH ANY PRECIP WINDING DOWN AFTER 18-19Z. ALSO
LOWERED MAXES A DEGREE OR SO BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND THE CLOUD
COVER.

920 AM...SOME FINE TUNING OF POPS/SKY THRU TODAY AS WE GET SOME
OVERRUNNING FROM DEVELOPING SFC LOW S OF NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN VERY
DRY LOW LEVELS...EXPECTING ANY SHRA THAT MAKE INTO CWA TO BE
LIGHT /OR JUST SPRINKLES/ AS THEY FALL FROM MID-DECK...MAINLY S
AND W OF A LINE FROM KHIE-KCON-KPSM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE WINDING
DOWN BETWEEN 21Z AND SUNSET. MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SUNNY BREAKS IN MOST
SPOTS. EXPECT THE THE MOST SUN WILL BE IN INTERIOR WRN AND CENTRAL
ME.

640 AM...BASED ON SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENT RADAR
MOSAIC...I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD POPS UPWARD OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1ST PERIOD GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT THE LATEST MESONET VALUES FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. A
1010 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA. FOR TODAY...CLOUDS
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SURFACE
LOW PASSING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST IN THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ALOFT AND
EVENTUALLY AT THE SURFACE AS WELL. ON MONDAY THERE SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD 80S AND EVEN POTENTIALLY A FEW 90S. A SEA BREEZE WILL
BE LIKELY AT THE COAST AND WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
THERE.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES BUT A SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT OVER MUCH OF MAINE
AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BEYOND THIS THE TWO MAIN FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE A BIT.
GFS PUSHES THE TROUGH AND FRONT THROUGH FULLY WHILE THE ECMWF
LINGERS THE BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH
THE FRONT LINGERING OFFSHORE... VARIOUS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT AND BRING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PRIMARILY
TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/SCHWIBS
SHORT TERM...SCHWIBS
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 041432
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1032 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
SCATTERED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND
LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. A TRANSITION PERIOD IS LIKELY MID NEXT
WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

TWO AREAS OF CONCERN...ONE OVER CAPE COD AND ISLANDS AND THE
SECOND OVER WESTERN MASS. LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE HAS SPREAD
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS AND COULD SIMILARLY EFFECT CAPE
COD THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS THROUGH AFTERNOON. THE SECOND AREA IS MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM NEW YORK INTO WESTERN MASS AND WESTERN CT. OBSERVED PCPN
UPSTREAM HAS BEEN LIGHT...ROUGHLY .01 TO .10 INCHES. DEW POINTS
HAVE MOISTENED IN NEW ENGLAND BUT WILL BE DRY ENOUGH TO EAT AWAY
AT THE PCPN. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET IS MOVING INTO THE
REGION...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN/SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS. THE
CHANCE OF .01 INCHES IN WESTERN MASS IS REASONABLY HIGH...ENOUGH
TO BOOST POPS TO 65-70 PCT FOR THE AFTERNOON. PARTS OF NORTHERN CT
MAY ALSO BE AFFECTED. BACK EDGE OF THE LIGHT RAIN TRENDS ACROSS
WESTERN MASS AROUND 3-4 PM.

LATE MORNING TEMPS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 2-4F LOWER THAN FORECAST. WE
HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS LOWER BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE HOURLY
TEMPS AND IN OVERALL MAX SFC TEMP FOR THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...MOVING SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANY RAINFALL TO AN
END LATE THIS EVENING. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF
US BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING A CLEARING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD MEAN DRY WEATHER WITH HIGHER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...WITH 04.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
COMING IN...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MID AND LONG TERM
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...ALTHOUGH TYPICAL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
LONG TERM. STRONG RIDGING EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ON THE SW QUADRANT OF A STRONG NRN STREAM VORTEX
DEVELOPING ACROSS N CENTRAL CANADA. THE FLATTENING WAVE WILL
ARRIVE MID WEEK...WITH HIGH PWATS AND INSTABILITY IN TOW WHICH MAY
NEED TO BE WATCHED. THERE ARE TIMING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY REGARDING
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FOR TUE...BUT WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THIS ROUND OF GUIDANCE A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL MODELS
WILL WORK WELL AS A BASELINE.

DETAILS...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...WARM RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRES AT THE SFC. MAINLY DRY WX PREVAILS WITH
MODERATING HIGHS/LOWS AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETWEEN +12C AND
+14C BY LATE MON. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUE...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W. MODELS
INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE AS PWATS APPROACH 2 STD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL WITH K-VALUES OVER 30. A WARM FRONT WILL BE THE
INITIAL SFC REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH PRES REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF
TUE. THEREFORE...CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/T-STORM WITH THE WARM
FRONTAL APPROACH MAY BE QUITE LOW TO NEAR ZERO THE FURTHER E ONE
GOES. IN FACT...THE BEST AXIS OF SFC CAPE/THETA-E RIDGE IS MAINLY
W OF THE MA/NY BORDER. THEREFORE...CHANCE POPS W WILL BE LOWERED
TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO NIL POPS FURTHER E. WILL INCLUDE THUNDER WITH
THIS FORECAST GIVEN THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS.

WED...AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...THIS IS WHERE THE MODEL
SOLUTION DIVERGENCE BEGINS TO SHOW MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. MAINLY WITH
THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GFS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE
WHILE ECMWF/CMC CONTINUES TO LINGER AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
PARALLEL THE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SINCE
THE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT
SOME SFC BASED CAPE EXCEEDING 1000J/KG AND HIGH K-VALUES...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE TS...BUT GIVEN THE LACKING SHEAR...REMAIN
SOMEWHAT DUBIOUS OF SEVERE CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

THU...THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
FURTHER SOUTHEAST...ALBEIT SLOWLY. WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE POPS FROM
N-S DURING THE DAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT BEFORE WE CAN NAIL DOWN
TIMING FOR THE LATE WEEK.

FRI AND SAT...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS BUT WITH ZONAL FLOW...A SERIES
OF RIDGE/TROUGH COUPLETS IS LIKELY TO YIELD PERIODS OF
DRY/POTENTIALLY WET PERIODS ARE LIKELY. INTERESTINGLY...WITH SRN
NEW ENGLAND ON THE RIDGE PERIPHERY MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR MCS
STEERING FLOW AS WELL. STILL WAY TOO MANY VARIABLES TO NAIL
ANYTHING DOWN...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOW TO NIL POPS SHOULD
COVER THE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH
THE HIGHEST RISK BEING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST LATER TODAY.
VERY LOW CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY ON COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MASS/RI SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF
RAIN/FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLOUD BASES LIFTING/CLEARING.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH HIGH PRES.  SEA
BREEZES LIKELY MON.

TUE AND WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. FIRST A WARM FRONT TUE...THEN A
COLD FRONT WED MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH PERIODIC MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE VFR. SOME FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS
OVER OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. FARTHER NORTH
THE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST...BUT WITH LIGHTER SPEEDS. AS THIS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND TURN
NORTH OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
SUNDAY.

PERSISTENT WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. THERE HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT SIGNAL THE PAST FEW DAYS FOR 5
FT SEAS. WHILE MARGINAL...DECIDED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
DUE TO THIS PERSISTENT SIGNAL.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LINGERING SWELL RECEDES
BELOW 5 FT SUN NIGHT.  HIGH PRES THEN BRINGS QUIET BOATING WEATHER
TO THE WATERS THROUGH MON.

TUE AND WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WARM FRONT ON TUE...THEN A COLD
FRONT ON WED WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W. WHILE WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE S-SE...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SEAS IS ALSO LIKELY TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR
FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 041432
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1032 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
SCATTERED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND
LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. A TRANSITION PERIOD IS LIKELY MID NEXT
WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

TWO AREAS OF CONCERN...ONE OVER CAPE COD AND ISLANDS AND THE
SECOND OVER WESTERN MASS. LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE HAS SPREAD
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS AND COULD SIMILARLY EFFECT CAPE
COD THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS THROUGH AFTERNOON. THE SECOND AREA IS MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM NEW YORK INTO WESTERN MASS AND WESTERN CT. OBSERVED PCPN
UPSTREAM HAS BEEN LIGHT...ROUGHLY .01 TO .10 INCHES. DEW POINTS
HAVE MOISTENED IN NEW ENGLAND BUT WILL BE DRY ENOUGH TO EAT AWAY
AT THE PCPN. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET IS MOVING INTO THE
REGION...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN/SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS. THE
CHANCE OF .01 INCHES IN WESTERN MASS IS REASONABLY HIGH...ENOUGH
TO BOOST POPS TO 65-70 PCT FOR THE AFTERNOON. PARTS OF NORTHERN CT
MAY ALSO BE AFFECTED. BACK EDGE OF THE LIGHT RAIN TRENDS ACROSS
WESTERN MASS AROUND 3-4 PM.

LATE MORNING TEMPS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 2-4F LOWER THAN FORECAST. WE
HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS LOWER BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE HOURLY
TEMPS AND IN OVERALL MAX SFC TEMP FOR THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...MOVING SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANY RAINFALL TO AN
END LATE THIS EVENING. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF
US BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING A CLEARING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD MEAN DRY WEATHER WITH HIGHER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...WITH 04.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
COMING IN...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MID AND LONG TERM
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...ALTHOUGH TYPICAL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
LONG TERM. STRONG RIDGING EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ON THE SW QUADRANT OF A STRONG NRN STREAM VORTEX
DEVELOPING ACROSS N CENTRAL CANADA. THE FLATTENING WAVE WILL
ARRIVE MID WEEK...WITH HIGH PWATS AND INSTABILITY IN TOW WHICH MAY
NEED TO BE WATCHED. THERE ARE TIMING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY REGARDING
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FOR TUE...BUT WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THIS ROUND OF GUIDANCE A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL MODELS
WILL WORK WELL AS A BASELINE.

DETAILS...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...WARM RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRES AT THE SFC. MAINLY DRY WX PREVAILS WITH
MODERATING HIGHS/LOWS AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETWEEN +12C AND
+14C BY LATE MON. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUE...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W. MODELS
INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE AS PWATS APPROACH 2 STD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL WITH K-VALUES OVER 30. A WARM FRONT WILL BE THE
INITIAL SFC REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH PRES REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF
TUE. THEREFORE...CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/T-STORM WITH THE WARM
FRONTAL APPROACH MAY BE QUITE LOW TO NEAR ZERO THE FURTHER E ONE
GOES. IN FACT...THE BEST AXIS OF SFC CAPE/THETA-E RIDGE IS MAINLY
W OF THE MA/NY BORDER. THEREFORE...CHANCE POPS W WILL BE LOWERED
TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO NIL POPS FURTHER E. WILL INCLUDE THUNDER WITH
THIS FORECAST GIVEN THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS.

WED...AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...THIS IS WHERE THE MODEL
SOLUTION DIVERGENCE BEGINS TO SHOW MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. MAINLY WITH
THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GFS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE
WHILE ECMWF/CMC CONTINUES TO LINGER AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
PARALLEL THE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SINCE
THE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT
SOME SFC BASED CAPE EXCEEDING 1000J/KG AND HIGH K-VALUES...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE TS...BUT GIVEN THE LACKING SHEAR...REMAIN
SOMEWHAT DUBIOUS OF SEVERE CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

THU...THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
FURTHER SOUTHEAST...ALBEIT SLOWLY. WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE POPS FROM
N-S DURING THE DAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT BEFORE WE CAN NAIL DOWN
TIMING FOR THE LATE WEEK.

FRI AND SAT...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS BUT WITH ZONAL FLOW...A SERIES
OF RIDGE/TROUGH COUPLETS IS LIKELY TO YIELD PERIODS OF
DRY/POTENTIALLY WET PERIODS ARE LIKELY. INTERESTINGLY...WITH SRN
NEW ENGLAND ON THE RIDGE PERIPHERY MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR MCS
STEERING FLOW AS WELL. STILL WAY TOO MANY VARIABLES TO NAIL
ANYTHING DOWN...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOW TO NIL POPS SHOULD
COVER THE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH
THE HIGHEST RISK BEING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST LATER TODAY.
VERY LOW CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY ON COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MASS/RI SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF
RAIN/FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLOUD BASES LIFTING/CLEARING.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH HIGH PRES.  SEA
BREEZES LIKELY MON.

TUE AND WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. FIRST A WARM FRONT TUE...THEN A
COLD FRONT WED MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH PERIODIC MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE VFR. SOME FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS
OVER OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. FARTHER NORTH
THE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST...BUT WITH LIGHTER SPEEDS. AS THIS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND TURN
NORTH OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
SUNDAY.

PERSISTENT WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. THERE HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT SIGNAL THE PAST FEW DAYS FOR 5
FT SEAS. WHILE MARGINAL...DECIDED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
DUE TO THIS PERSISTENT SIGNAL.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LINGERING SWELL RECEDES
BELOW 5 FT SUN NIGHT.  HIGH PRES THEN BRINGS QUIET BOATING WEATHER
TO THE WATERS THROUGH MON.

TUE AND WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WARM FRONT ON TUE...THEN A COLD
FRONT ON WED WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W. WHILE WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE S-SE...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SEAS IS ALSO LIKELY TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR
FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 041432
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1032 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
SCATTERED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND
LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. A TRANSITION PERIOD IS LIKELY MID NEXT
WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

TWO AREAS OF CONCERN...ONE OVER CAPE COD AND ISLANDS AND THE
SECOND OVER WESTERN MASS. LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE HAS SPREAD
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS AND COULD SIMILARLY EFFECT CAPE
COD THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS THROUGH AFTERNOON. THE SECOND AREA IS MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM NEW YORK INTO WESTERN MASS AND WESTERN CT. OBSERVED PCPN
UPSTREAM HAS BEEN LIGHT...ROUGHLY .01 TO .10 INCHES. DEW POINTS
HAVE MOISTENED IN NEW ENGLAND BUT WILL BE DRY ENOUGH TO EAT AWAY
AT THE PCPN. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET IS MOVING INTO THE
REGION...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN/SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS. THE
CHANCE OF .01 INCHES IN WESTERN MASS IS REASONABLY HIGH...ENOUGH
TO BOOST POPS TO 65-70 PCT FOR THE AFTERNOON. PARTS OF NORTHERN CT
MAY ALSO BE AFFECTED. BACK EDGE OF THE LIGHT RAIN TRENDS ACROSS
WESTERN MASS AROUND 3-4 PM.

LATE MORNING TEMPS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 2-4F LOWER THAN FORECAST. WE
HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS LOWER BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE HOURLY
TEMPS AND IN OVERALL MAX SFC TEMP FOR THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...MOVING SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANY RAINFALL TO AN
END LATE THIS EVENING. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF
US BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING A CLEARING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD MEAN DRY WEATHER WITH HIGHER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...WITH 04.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
COMING IN...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MID AND LONG TERM
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...ALTHOUGH TYPICAL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
LONG TERM. STRONG RIDGING EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ON THE SW QUADRANT OF A STRONG NRN STREAM VORTEX
DEVELOPING ACROSS N CENTRAL CANADA. THE FLATTENING WAVE WILL
ARRIVE MID WEEK...WITH HIGH PWATS AND INSTABILITY IN TOW WHICH MAY
NEED TO BE WATCHED. THERE ARE TIMING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY REGARDING
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FOR TUE...BUT WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THIS ROUND OF GUIDANCE A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL MODELS
WILL WORK WELL AS A BASELINE.

DETAILS...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...WARM RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRES AT THE SFC. MAINLY DRY WX PREVAILS WITH
MODERATING HIGHS/LOWS AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETWEEN +12C AND
+14C BY LATE MON. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUE...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W. MODELS
INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE AS PWATS APPROACH 2 STD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL WITH K-VALUES OVER 30. A WARM FRONT WILL BE THE
INITIAL SFC REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH PRES REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF
TUE. THEREFORE...CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/T-STORM WITH THE WARM
FRONTAL APPROACH MAY BE QUITE LOW TO NEAR ZERO THE FURTHER E ONE
GOES. IN FACT...THE BEST AXIS OF SFC CAPE/THETA-E RIDGE IS MAINLY
W OF THE MA/NY BORDER. THEREFORE...CHANCE POPS W WILL BE LOWERED
TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO NIL POPS FURTHER E. WILL INCLUDE THUNDER WITH
THIS FORECAST GIVEN THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS.

WED...AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...THIS IS WHERE THE MODEL
SOLUTION DIVERGENCE BEGINS TO SHOW MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. MAINLY WITH
THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GFS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE
WHILE ECMWF/CMC CONTINUES TO LINGER AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
PARALLEL THE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SINCE
THE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT
SOME SFC BASED CAPE EXCEEDING 1000J/KG AND HIGH K-VALUES...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE TS...BUT GIVEN THE LACKING SHEAR...REMAIN
SOMEWHAT DUBIOUS OF SEVERE CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

THU...THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
FURTHER SOUTHEAST...ALBEIT SLOWLY. WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE POPS FROM
N-S DURING THE DAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT BEFORE WE CAN NAIL DOWN
TIMING FOR THE LATE WEEK.

FRI AND SAT...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS BUT WITH ZONAL FLOW...A SERIES
OF RIDGE/TROUGH COUPLETS IS LIKELY TO YIELD PERIODS OF
DRY/POTENTIALLY WET PERIODS ARE LIKELY. INTERESTINGLY...WITH SRN
NEW ENGLAND ON THE RIDGE PERIPHERY MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR MCS
STEERING FLOW AS WELL. STILL WAY TOO MANY VARIABLES TO NAIL
ANYTHING DOWN...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOW TO NIL POPS SHOULD
COVER THE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH
THE HIGHEST RISK BEING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST LATER TODAY.
VERY LOW CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY ON COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MASS/RI SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF
RAIN/FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLOUD BASES LIFTING/CLEARING.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH HIGH PRES.  SEA
BREEZES LIKELY MON.

TUE AND WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. FIRST A WARM FRONT TUE...THEN A
COLD FRONT WED MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH PERIODIC MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE VFR. SOME FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS
OVER OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. FARTHER NORTH
THE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST...BUT WITH LIGHTER SPEEDS. AS THIS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND TURN
NORTH OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
SUNDAY.

PERSISTENT WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. THERE HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT SIGNAL THE PAST FEW DAYS FOR 5
FT SEAS. WHILE MARGINAL...DECIDED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
DUE TO THIS PERSISTENT SIGNAL.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LINGERING SWELL RECEDES
BELOW 5 FT SUN NIGHT.  HIGH PRES THEN BRINGS QUIET BOATING WEATHER
TO THE WATERS THROUGH MON.

TUE AND WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WARM FRONT ON TUE...THEN A COLD
FRONT ON WED WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W. WHILE WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE S-SE...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SEAS IS ALSO LIKELY TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR
FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 041432
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1032 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
SCATTERED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND
LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. A TRANSITION PERIOD IS LIKELY MID NEXT
WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

TWO AREAS OF CONCERN...ONE OVER CAPE COD AND ISLANDS AND THE
SECOND OVER WESTERN MASS. LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE HAS SPREAD
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS AND COULD SIMILARLY EFFECT CAPE
COD THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS THROUGH AFTERNOON. THE SECOND AREA IS MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM NEW YORK INTO WESTERN MASS AND WESTERN CT. OBSERVED PCPN
UPSTREAM HAS BEEN LIGHT...ROUGHLY .01 TO .10 INCHES. DEW POINTS
HAVE MOISTENED IN NEW ENGLAND BUT WILL BE DRY ENOUGH TO EAT AWAY
AT THE PCPN. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET IS MOVING INTO THE
REGION...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN/SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS. THE
CHANCE OF .01 INCHES IN WESTERN MASS IS REASONABLY HIGH...ENOUGH
TO BOOST POPS TO 65-70 PCT FOR THE AFTERNOON. PARTS OF NORTHERN CT
MAY ALSO BE AFFECTED. BACK EDGE OF THE LIGHT RAIN TRENDS ACROSS
WESTERN MASS AROUND 3-4 PM.

LATE MORNING TEMPS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 2-4F LOWER THAN FORECAST. WE
HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS LOWER BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE HOURLY
TEMPS AND IN OVERALL MAX SFC TEMP FOR THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...MOVING SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANY RAINFALL TO AN
END LATE THIS EVENING. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF
US BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING A CLEARING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD MEAN DRY WEATHER WITH HIGHER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...WITH 04.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
COMING IN...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MID AND LONG TERM
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...ALTHOUGH TYPICAL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
LONG TERM. STRONG RIDGING EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ON THE SW QUADRANT OF A STRONG NRN STREAM VORTEX
DEVELOPING ACROSS N CENTRAL CANADA. THE FLATTENING WAVE WILL
ARRIVE MID WEEK...WITH HIGH PWATS AND INSTABILITY IN TOW WHICH MAY
NEED TO BE WATCHED. THERE ARE TIMING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY REGARDING
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FOR TUE...BUT WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THIS ROUND OF GUIDANCE A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL MODELS
WILL WORK WELL AS A BASELINE.

DETAILS...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...WARM RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRES AT THE SFC. MAINLY DRY WX PREVAILS WITH
MODERATING HIGHS/LOWS AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETWEEN +12C AND
+14C BY LATE MON. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUE...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W. MODELS
INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE AS PWATS APPROACH 2 STD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL WITH K-VALUES OVER 30. A WARM FRONT WILL BE THE
INITIAL SFC REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH PRES REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF
TUE. THEREFORE...CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/T-STORM WITH THE WARM
FRONTAL APPROACH MAY BE QUITE LOW TO NEAR ZERO THE FURTHER E ONE
GOES. IN FACT...THE BEST AXIS OF SFC CAPE/THETA-E RIDGE IS MAINLY
W OF THE MA/NY BORDER. THEREFORE...CHANCE POPS W WILL BE LOWERED
TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO NIL POPS FURTHER E. WILL INCLUDE THUNDER WITH
THIS FORECAST GIVEN THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS.

WED...AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...THIS IS WHERE THE MODEL
SOLUTION DIVERGENCE BEGINS TO SHOW MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. MAINLY WITH
THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GFS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE
WHILE ECMWF/CMC CONTINUES TO LINGER AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
PARALLEL THE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SINCE
THE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT
SOME SFC BASED CAPE EXCEEDING 1000J/KG AND HIGH K-VALUES...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE TS...BUT GIVEN THE LACKING SHEAR...REMAIN
SOMEWHAT DUBIOUS OF SEVERE CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

THU...THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
FURTHER SOUTHEAST...ALBEIT SLOWLY. WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE POPS FROM
N-S DURING THE DAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT BEFORE WE CAN NAIL DOWN
TIMING FOR THE LATE WEEK.

FRI AND SAT...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS BUT WITH ZONAL FLOW...A SERIES
OF RIDGE/TROUGH COUPLETS IS LIKELY TO YIELD PERIODS OF
DRY/POTENTIALLY WET PERIODS ARE LIKELY. INTERESTINGLY...WITH SRN
NEW ENGLAND ON THE RIDGE PERIPHERY MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR MCS
STEERING FLOW AS WELL. STILL WAY TOO MANY VARIABLES TO NAIL
ANYTHING DOWN...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOW TO NIL POPS SHOULD
COVER THE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH
THE HIGHEST RISK BEING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST LATER TODAY.
VERY LOW CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY ON COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MASS/RI SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF
RAIN/FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLOUD BASES LIFTING/CLEARING.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH HIGH PRES.  SEA
BREEZES LIKELY MON.

TUE AND WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. FIRST A WARM FRONT TUE...THEN A
COLD FRONT WED MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH PERIODIC MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE VFR. SOME FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS
OVER OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. FARTHER NORTH
THE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST...BUT WITH LIGHTER SPEEDS. AS THIS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND TURN
NORTH OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
SUNDAY.

PERSISTENT WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. THERE HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT SIGNAL THE PAST FEW DAYS FOR 5
FT SEAS. WHILE MARGINAL...DECIDED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
DUE TO THIS PERSISTENT SIGNAL.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LINGERING SWELL RECEDES
BELOW 5 FT SUN NIGHT.  HIGH PRES THEN BRINGS QUIET BOATING WEATHER
TO THE WATERS THROUGH MON.

TUE AND WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WARM FRONT ON TUE...THEN A COLD
FRONT ON WED WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W. WHILE WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE S-SE...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SEAS IS ALSO LIKELY TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR
FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KGYX 041328
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
928 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND COULD BRING A STRAY
SHOWER TO THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE
TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
920 AM...SOME FINE TUNING OF POPS/SKY THRU TODAY AS WE GET SOME
OVERRUNNING FROM DEVELOPING SFC LOW S OF NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN VERY
DRY LOW LEVELS...EXPECTING ANY SHRA THAT MAKE INTO CWA TO BE
LIGHT /OR JUST SPRINKLES/ AS THEY FALL FROM MID-DECK...MAINLY S
AND W OF A LINE FROM KHIE-KCON-KPSM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE WINDING
DOWN BETWEEN 21Z AND SUNSET. MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SUNNY BREAKS IN MOST
SPOTS. EXPECT THE THE MOST SUN WILL BE IN INTERIOR WRN AND CENTRAL
ME.

640 AM...BASED ON SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENT RADAR
MOSAIC...I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD POPS UPWARD OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1ST PERIOD GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT THE LATEST MESONET VALUES FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. A
1010 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA. FOR TODAY...CLOUDS
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SURFACE
LOW PASSING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST IN THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ALOFT AND
EVENTUALLY AT THE SURFACE AS WELL. ON MONDAY THERE SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD 80S AND EVEN POTENTIALLY A FEW 90S. A SEA BREEZE WILL
BE LIKELY AT THE COAST AND WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
THERE.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES BUT A SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT OVER MUCH OF MAINE
AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BEYOND THIS THE TWO MAIN FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE A BIT.
GFS PUSHES THE TROUGH AND FRONT THROUGH FULLY WHILE THE ECMWF
LINGERS THE BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH
THE FRONT LINGERING OFFSHORE... VARIOUS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT AND BRING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PRIMARILY
TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/SCHWIBS
SHORT TERM...SCHWIBS
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 041328
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
928 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND COULD BRING A STRAY
SHOWER TO THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE
TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
920 AM...SOME FINE TUNING OF POPS/SKY THRU TODAY AS WE GET SOME
OVERRUNNING FROM DEVELOPING SFC LOW S OF NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN VERY
DRY LOW LEVELS...EXPECTING ANY SHRA THAT MAKE INTO CWA TO BE
LIGHT /OR JUST SPRINKLES/ AS THEY FALL FROM MID-DECK...MAINLY S
AND W OF A LINE FROM KHIE-KCON-KPSM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE WINDING
DOWN BETWEEN 21Z AND SUNSET. MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SUNNY BREAKS IN MOST
SPOTS. EXPECT THE THE MOST SUN WILL BE IN INTERIOR WRN AND CENTRAL
ME.

640 AM...BASED ON SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENT RADAR
MOSAIC...I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD POPS UPWARD OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1ST PERIOD GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT THE LATEST MESONET VALUES FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. A
1010 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA. FOR TODAY...CLOUDS
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SURFACE
LOW PASSING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST IN THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ALOFT AND
EVENTUALLY AT THE SURFACE AS WELL. ON MONDAY THERE SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD 80S AND EVEN POTENTIALLY A FEW 90S. A SEA BREEZE WILL
BE LIKELY AT THE COAST AND WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
THERE.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES BUT A SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT OVER MUCH OF MAINE
AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BEYOND THIS THE TWO MAIN FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE A BIT.
GFS PUSHES THE TROUGH AND FRONT THROUGH FULLY WHILE THE ECMWF
LINGERS THE BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH
THE FRONT LINGERING OFFSHORE... VARIOUS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT AND BRING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PRIMARILY
TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/SCHWIBS
SHORT TERM...SCHWIBS
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 041121
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
721 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND MAY BRINGING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTH COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. A TRANSITION PERIOD IS LIKELY
MID NEXT WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
THE FIRST OF SOME REMNANT SHOWERS FROM UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ARE JUST
SPILLING INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVE E. LIKELY JUST A
SPRINKLE HITTING THE GROUND IN CT AND W MA AT THIS POINT. THIS
SAME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE LARGER
BAND OF RAIN TO THE W TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BUT GRADUALLY
DISSIPATES AS IT DOES SO. CURRENT POPS REFLECT THIS THINKING
RATHER WELL...SO ONLY UPDATES WERE TO BRING POPS UP A LITTLE BIT
IN THE W EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH THE SHOWERS ONGOING.
OTHERWISE...INCREASED TEMPS A BIT ACROSS THE E WHICH WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE FOR A TIME THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RACES SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE

LATEST GUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS. THE MORE GLOBAL MODELS
ARE MOSTLY DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THE HI-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING RAINFALL TO
WESTERN MA...AS WELL AS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

BASED ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...AM THINKING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN MA AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES OUR REGION.
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE...AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. GIVEN THE TIMING...
AM THINKING THE DRIEST CONDITIONS WILL BE TOWARD NORTHEAST MA...
WHICH IS THE FARTHEST AWAY FROM THE LOW TO THE SOUTH.

THIS SOLUTION IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED
CAMPS. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY...SO NOT THINKING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AN ISSUE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...MOVING SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANY RAINFALL TO AN
END LATE THIS EVENING. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF
US BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING A CLEARING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD MEAN DRY WEATHER WITH HIGHER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...WITH 04.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
COMING IN...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MID AND LONG TERM
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...ALTHOUGH TYPICAL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
LONG TERM. STRONG RIDGING EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ON THE SW QUADRANT OF A STRONG NRN STREAM VORTEX
DEVELOPING ACROSS N CENTRAL CANADA. THE FLATTENING WAVE WILL
ARRIVE MID WEEK...WITH HIGH PWATS AND INSTABILITY IN TOW WHICH MAY
NEED TO BE WATCHED. THERE ARE TIMING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY REGARDING
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FOR TUE...BUT WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THIS ROUND OF GUIDANCE A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL MODELS
WILL WORK WELL AS A BASELINE.

DETAILS...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...WARM RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRES AT THE SFC. MAINLY DRY WX PREVAILS WITH
MODERATING HIGHS/LOWS AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETWEEN +12C AND
+14C BY LATE MON. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUE...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W. MODELS
INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE AS PWATS APPROACH 2 STD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL WITH K-VALUES OVER 30. A WARM FRONT WILL BE THE
INITIAL SFC REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH PRES REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF
TUE. THEREFORE...CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/T-STORM WITH THE WARM
FRONTAL APPROACH MAY BE QUITE LOW TO NEAR ZERO THE FURTHER E ONE
GOES. IN FACT...THE BEST AXIS OF SFC CAPE/THETA-E RIDGE IS MAINLY
W OF THE MA/NY BORDER. THEREFORE...CHANCE POPS W WILL BE LOWERED
TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO NIL POPS FURTHER E. WILL INCLUDE THUNDER WITH
THIS FORECAST GIVEN THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS.

WED...AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...THIS IS WHERE THE MODEL
SOLUTION DIVERGENCE BEGINS TO SHOW MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. MAINLY WITH
THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GFS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE
WHILE ECMWF/CMC CONTINUES TO LINGER AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
PARALLEL THE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SINCE
THE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT
SOME SFC BASED CAPE EXCEEDING 1000J/KG AND HIGH K-VALUES...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE TS...BUT GIVEN THE LACKING SHEAR...REMAIN
SOMEWHAT DUBIOUS OF SEVERE CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

THU...THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
FURTHER SOUTHEAST...ALBEIT SLOWLY. WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE POPS FROM
N-S DURING THE DAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT BEFORE WE CAN NAIL DOWN
TIMING FOR THE LATE WEEK.

FRI AND SAT...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS BUT WITH ZONAL FLOW...A SERIES
OF RIDGE/TROUGH COUPLETS IS LIKELY TO YIELD PERIODS OF
DRY/POTENTIALLY WET PERIODS ARE LIKELY. INTERESTINGLY...WITH SRN
NEW ENGLAND ON THE RIDGE PERIPHERY MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR MCS
STEERING FLOW AS WELL. STILL WAY TOO MANY VARIABLES TO NAIL
ANYTHING DOWN...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOW TO NIL POPS SHOULD
COVER THE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH
THE HIGHEST RISK BEING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST LATER TODAY.
VERY LOW CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY ON COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MASS/RI SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF
RAIN/FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLOUD BASES LIFTING/CLEARING.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH HIGH PRES.  SEA
BREEZES LIKELY MON.

TUE AND WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. FIRST A WARM FRONT TUE...THEN A
COLD FRONT WED MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH PERIODIC MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE VFR. SOME FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS
OVER OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. FARTHER NORTH
THE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST...BUT WITH LIGHTER SPEEDS. AS THIS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND TURN
NORTH OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
SUNDAY.

PERSISTENT WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. THERE HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT SIGNAL THE PAST FEW DAYS FOR 5
FT SEAS. WHILE MARGINAL...DECIDED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
DUE TO THIS PERSISTENT SIGNAL.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LINGERING SWELL RECEDES
BELOW 5 FT SUN NIGHT.  HIGH PRES THEN BRINGS QUIET BOATING WEATHER
TO THE WATERS THROUGH MON.

TUE AND WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WARM FRONT ON TUE...THEN A COLD
FRONT ON WED WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W. WHILE WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE S-SE...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SEAS IS ALSO LIKELY TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR
FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 041121
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
721 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND MAY BRINGING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTH COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. A TRANSITION PERIOD IS LIKELY
MID NEXT WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
THE FIRST OF SOME REMNANT SHOWERS FROM UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ARE JUST
SPILLING INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVE E. LIKELY JUST A
SPRINKLE HITTING THE GROUND IN CT AND W MA AT THIS POINT. THIS
SAME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE LARGER
BAND OF RAIN TO THE W TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BUT GRADUALLY
DISSIPATES AS IT DOES SO. CURRENT POPS REFLECT THIS THINKING
RATHER WELL...SO ONLY UPDATES WERE TO BRING POPS UP A LITTLE BIT
IN THE W EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH THE SHOWERS ONGOING.
OTHERWISE...INCREASED TEMPS A BIT ACROSS THE E WHICH WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE FOR A TIME THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RACES SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE

LATEST GUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS. THE MORE GLOBAL MODELS
ARE MOSTLY DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THE HI-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING RAINFALL TO
WESTERN MA...AS WELL AS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

BASED ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...AM THINKING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN MA AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES OUR REGION.
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE...AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. GIVEN THE TIMING...
AM THINKING THE DRIEST CONDITIONS WILL BE TOWARD NORTHEAST MA...
WHICH IS THE FARTHEST AWAY FROM THE LOW TO THE SOUTH.

THIS SOLUTION IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED
CAMPS. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY...SO NOT THINKING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AN ISSUE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...MOVING SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANY RAINFALL TO AN
END LATE THIS EVENING. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF
US BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING A CLEARING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD MEAN DRY WEATHER WITH HIGHER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...WITH 04.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
COMING IN...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MID AND LONG TERM
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...ALTHOUGH TYPICAL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
LONG TERM. STRONG RIDGING EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ON THE SW QUADRANT OF A STRONG NRN STREAM VORTEX
DEVELOPING ACROSS N CENTRAL CANADA. THE FLATTENING WAVE WILL
ARRIVE MID WEEK...WITH HIGH PWATS AND INSTABILITY IN TOW WHICH MAY
NEED TO BE WATCHED. THERE ARE TIMING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY REGARDING
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FOR TUE...BUT WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THIS ROUND OF GUIDANCE A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL MODELS
WILL WORK WELL AS A BASELINE.

DETAILS...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...WARM RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRES AT THE SFC. MAINLY DRY WX PREVAILS WITH
MODERATING HIGHS/LOWS AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETWEEN +12C AND
+14C BY LATE MON. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUE...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W. MODELS
INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE AS PWATS APPROACH 2 STD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL WITH K-VALUES OVER 30. A WARM FRONT WILL BE THE
INITIAL SFC REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH PRES REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF
TUE. THEREFORE...CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/T-STORM WITH THE WARM
FRONTAL APPROACH MAY BE QUITE LOW TO NEAR ZERO THE FURTHER E ONE
GOES. IN FACT...THE BEST AXIS OF SFC CAPE/THETA-E RIDGE IS MAINLY
W OF THE MA/NY BORDER. THEREFORE...CHANCE POPS W WILL BE LOWERED
TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO NIL POPS FURTHER E. WILL INCLUDE THUNDER WITH
THIS FORECAST GIVEN THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS.

WED...AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...THIS IS WHERE THE MODEL
SOLUTION DIVERGENCE BEGINS TO SHOW MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. MAINLY WITH
THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GFS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE
WHILE ECMWF/CMC CONTINUES TO LINGER AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
PARALLEL THE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SINCE
THE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT
SOME SFC BASED CAPE EXCEEDING 1000J/KG AND HIGH K-VALUES...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE TS...BUT GIVEN THE LACKING SHEAR...REMAIN
SOMEWHAT DUBIOUS OF SEVERE CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

THU...THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
FURTHER SOUTHEAST...ALBEIT SLOWLY. WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE POPS FROM
N-S DURING THE DAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT BEFORE WE CAN NAIL DOWN
TIMING FOR THE LATE WEEK.

FRI AND SAT...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS BUT WITH ZONAL FLOW...A SERIES
OF RIDGE/TROUGH COUPLETS IS LIKELY TO YIELD PERIODS OF
DRY/POTENTIALLY WET PERIODS ARE LIKELY. INTERESTINGLY...WITH SRN
NEW ENGLAND ON THE RIDGE PERIPHERY MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR MCS
STEERING FLOW AS WELL. STILL WAY TOO MANY VARIABLES TO NAIL
ANYTHING DOWN...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOW TO NIL POPS SHOULD
COVER THE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH
THE HIGHEST RISK BEING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST LATER TODAY.
VERY LOW CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY ON COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MASS/RI SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF
RAIN/FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLOUD BASES LIFTING/CLEARING.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH HIGH PRES.  SEA
BREEZES LIKELY MON.

TUE AND WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. FIRST A WARM FRONT TUE...THEN A
COLD FRONT WED MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH PERIODIC MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE VFR. SOME FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS
OVER OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. FARTHER NORTH
THE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST...BUT WITH LIGHTER SPEEDS. AS THIS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND TURN
NORTH OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
SUNDAY.

PERSISTENT WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. THERE HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT SIGNAL THE PAST FEW DAYS FOR 5
FT SEAS. WHILE MARGINAL...DECIDED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
DUE TO THIS PERSISTENT SIGNAL.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LINGERING SWELL RECEDES
BELOW 5 FT SUN NIGHT.  HIGH PRES THEN BRINGS QUIET BOATING WEATHER
TO THE WATERS THROUGH MON.

TUE AND WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WARM FRONT ON TUE...THEN A COLD
FRONT ON WED WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W. WHILE WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE S-SE...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SEAS IS ALSO LIKELY TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR
FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KGYX 041047
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
647 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE WELL OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH AND COULD BRING A STRAY SHOWER TO THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND
GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING
TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

640 AM...BASED ON SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENT RADAR
MOSAIC...I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD POPS UPWARD OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1ST PERIOD GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT THE LATEST MESONET VALUES FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. A
1010 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA. FOR TODAY...CLOUDS
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SURFACE
LOW PASSING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST IN THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ALOFT AND
EVENTUALLY AT THE SURFACE AS WELL. ON MONDAY THERE SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD 80S AND EVEN POTENTIALLY A FEW 90S. A SEA BREEZE WILL
BE LIKELY AT THE COAST AND WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
THERE.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES BUT A SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT OVER MUCH OF MAINE
AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BEYOND THIS THE TWO MAIN FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE A BIT.
GFS PUSHES THE TROUGH AND FRONT THROUGH FULLY WHILE THE ECMWF
LINGERS THE BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH
THE FRONT LINGERING OFFSHORE... VARIOUS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT AND BRING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PRIMARILY
TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 041047
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
647 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE WELL OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH AND COULD BRING A STRAY SHOWER TO THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND
GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING
TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

640 AM...BASED ON SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENT RADAR
MOSAIC...I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD POPS UPWARD OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1ST PERIOD GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT THE LATEST MESONET VALUES FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. A
1010 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA. FOR TODAY...CLOUDS
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SURFACE
LOW PASSING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST IN THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ALOFT AND
EVENTUALLY AT THE SURFACE AS WELL. ON MONDAY THERE SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD 80S AND EVEN POTENTIALLY A FEW 90S. A SEA BREEZE WILL
BE LIKELY AT THE COAST AND WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
THERE.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES BUT A SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT OVER MUCH OF MAINE
AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BEYOND THIS THE TWO MAIN FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE A BIT.
GFS PUSHES THE TROUGH AND FRONT THROUGH FULLY WHILE THE ECMWF
LINGERS THE BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH
THE FRONT LINGERING OFFSHORE... VARIOUS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT AND BRING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PRIMARILY
TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 041047
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
647 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE WELL OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH AND COULD BRING A STRAY SHOWER TO THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND
GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING
TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

640 AM...BASED ON SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENT RADAR
MOSAIC...I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD POPS UPWARD OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1ST PERIOD GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT THE LATEST MESONET VALUES FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. A
1010 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA. FOR TODAY...CLOUDS
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SURFACE
LOW PASSING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST IN THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ALOFT AND
EVENTUALLY AT THE SURFACE AS WELL. ON MONDAY THERE SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD 80S AND EVEN POTENTIALLY A FEW 90S. A SEA BREEZE WILL
BE LIKELY AT THE COAST AND WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
THERE.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES BUT A SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT OVER MUCH OF MAINE
AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BEYOND THIS THE TWO MAIN FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE A BIT.
GFS PUSHES THE TROUGH AND FRONT THROUGH FULLY WHILE THE ECMWF
LINGERS THE BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH
THE FRONT LINGERING OFFSHORE... VARIOUS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT AND BRING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PRIMARILY
TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 041047
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
647 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE WELL OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH AND COULD BRING A STRAY SHOWER TO THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND
GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING
TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

640 AM...BASED ON SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENT RADAR
MOSAIC...I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD POPS UPWARD OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1ST PERIOD GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT THE LATEST MESONET VALUES FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. A
1010 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA. FOR TODAY...CLOUDS
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SURFACE
LOW PASSING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST IN THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ALOFT AND
EVENTUALLY AT THE SURFACE AS WELL. ON MONDAY THERE SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD 80S AND EVEN POTENTIALLY A FEW 90S. A SEA BREEZE WILL
BE LIKELY AT THE COAST AND WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
THERE.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES BUT A SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT OVER MUCH OF MAINE
AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BEYOND THIS THE TWO MAIN FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE A BIT.
GFS PUSHES THE TROUGH AND FRONT THROUGH FULLY WHILE THE ECMWF
LINGERS THE BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH
THE FRONT LINGERING OFFSHORE... VARIOUS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT AND BRING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PRIMARILY
TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 041047
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
647 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE WELL OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH AND COULD BRING A STRAY SHOWER TO THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND
GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING
TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

640 AM...BASED ON SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENT RADAR
MOSAIC...I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD POPS UPWARD OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1ST PERIOD GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT THE LATEST MESONET VALUES FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. A
1010 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA. FOR TODAY...CLOUDS
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SURFACE
LOW PASSING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST IN THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ALOFT AND
EVENTUALLY AT THE SURFACE AS WELL. ON MONDAY THERE SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD 80S AND EVEN POTENTIALLY A FEW 90S. A SEA BREEZE WILL
BE LIKELY AT THE COAST AND WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
THERE.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES BUT A SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT OVER MUCH OF MAINE
AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BEYOND THIS THE TWO MAIN FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE A BIT.
GFS PUSHES THE TROUGH AND FRONT THROUGH FULLY WHILE THE ECMWF
LINGERS THE BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH
THE FRONT LINGERING OFFSHORE... VARIOUS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT AND BRING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PRIMARILY
TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 041047
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
647 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE WELL OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH AND COULD BRING A STRAY SHOWER TO THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND
GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING
TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

640 AM...BASED ON SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENT RADAR
MOSAIC...I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD POPS UPWARD OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1ST PERIOD GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT THE LATEST MESONET VALUES FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. A
1010 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA. FOR TODAY...CLOUDS
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SURFACE
LOW PASSING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST IN THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ALOFT AND
EVENTUALLY AT THE SURFACE AS WELL. ON MONDAY THERE SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD 80S AND EVEN POTENTIALLY A FEW 90S. A SEA BREEZE WILL
BE LIKELY AT THE COAST AND WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
THERE.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES BUT A SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT OVER MUCH OF MAINE
AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BEYOND THIS THE TWO MAIN FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE A BIT.
GFS PUSHES THE TROUGH AND FRONT THROUGH FULLY WHILE THE ECMWF
LINGERS THE BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH
THE FRONT LINGERING OFFSHORE... VARIOUS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT AND BRING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PRIMARILY
TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KBOX 040813
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
413 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND MAY BRINGING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTH COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. A TRANSITION PERIOD IS LIKELY
MID NEXT WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RACES SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE

LATEST GUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS. THE MORE GLOBAL MODELS
ARE MOSTLY DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THE HI-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING RAINFALL TO
WESTERN MA...AS WELL AS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

BASED ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...AM THINKING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN MA AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES OUR REGION.
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE...AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. GIVEN THE TIMING...
AM THINKING THE DRIEST CONDITIONS WILL BE TOWARD NORTHEAST MA...
WHICH IS THE FARTHEST AWAY FROM THE LOW TO THE SOUTH.

THIS SOLUTION IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED
CAMPS. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY...SO NOT THINKING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AN ISSUE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...MOVING SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANY RAINFALL TO AN
END LATE THIS EVENING. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF
US BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING A CLEARING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD MEAN DRY WEATHER WITH HIGHER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...WITH 04.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
COMING IN...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MID AND LONG TERM
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...ALTHOUGH TYPICAL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
LONG TERM. STRONG RIDGING EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ON THE SW QUADRANT OF A STRONG NRN STREAM VORTEX
DEVELOPING ACROSS N CENTRAL CANADA. THE FLATTENING WAVE WILL
ARRIVE MID WEEK...WITH HIGH PWATS AND INSTABILITY IN TOW WHICH MAY
NEED TO BE WATCHED. THERE ARE TIMING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY REGARDING
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FOR TUE...BUT WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THIS ROUND OF GUIDANCE A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL MODELS
WILL WORK WELL AS A BASELINE.

DETAILS...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...WARM RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRES AT THE SFC. MAINLY DRY WX PREVAILS WITH
MODERATING HIGHS/LOWS AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETWEEN +12C AND
+14C BY LATE MON. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUE...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W. MODELS
INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE AS PWATS APPROACH 2 STD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL WITH K-VALUES OVER 30. A WARM FRONT WILL BE THE
INITIAL SFC REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH PRES REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF
TUE. THEREFORE...CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/T-STORM WITH THE WARM
FRONTAL APPROACH MAY BE QUITE LOW TO NEAR ZERO THE FURTHER E ONE
GOES. IN FACT...THE BEST AXIS OF SFC CAPE/THETA-E RIDGE IS MAINLY
W OF THE MA/NY BORDER. THEREFORE...CHANCE POPS W WILL BE LOWERED
TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO NIL POPS FURTHER E. WILL INCLUDE THUNDER WITH
THIS FORECAST GIVEN THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS.

WED...AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...THIS IS WHERE THE MODEL
SOLUTION DIVERGENCE BEGINS TO SHOW MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. MAINLY WITH
THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GFS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE
WHILE ECMWF/CMC CONTINUES TO LINGER AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
PARALLEL THE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SINCE
THE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT
SOME SFC BASED CAPE EXCEEDING 1000J/KG AND HIGH K-VALUES...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE TS...BUT GIVEN THE LACKING SHEAR...REMAIN
SOMEWHAT DUBIOUS OF SEVERE CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

THU...THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
FURTHER SOUTHEAST...ALBEIT SLOWLY. WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE POPS FROM
N-S DURING THE DAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT BEFORE WE CAN NAIL DOWN
TIMING FOR THE LATE WEEK.

FRI AND SAT...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS BUT WITH ZONAL FLOW...A SERIES
OF RIDGE/TROUGH COUPLETS IS LIKELY TO YIELD PERIODS OF
DRY/POTENTIALLY WET PERIODS ARE LIKELY. INTERESTINGLY...WITH SRN
NEW ENGLAND ON THE RIDGE PERIPHERY MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR MCS
STEERING FLOW AS WELL. STILL WAY TOO MANY VARIABLES TO NAIL
ANYTHING DOWN...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOW TO NIL POPS SHOULD
COVER THE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS,,,MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GREATEST RISK FOR MVFR IS AT TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING IFR
CONDITIONS AT BOSTON TOWARD EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MASS/RI SHOULD
TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF RAIN/FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLOUD BASES
LIFTING/CLEARING.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECTING VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOW CONFIDENCE LOWER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP IN ONSHORE
FLOW LATER TODAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EVEN IF A FEW SPRINKLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH HIGH PRES.  SEA
BREEZES LIKELY MON.

TUE AND WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. FIRST A WARM FRONT TUE...THEN A
COLD FRONT WED MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH PERIODIC MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE VFR. SOME FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS
OVER OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. FARTHER NORTH
THE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST...BUT WITH LIGHTER SPEEDS. AS THIS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND TURN
NORTH OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
SUNDAY.

PERSISTENT WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. THERE HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT SIGNAL THE PAST FEW DAYS FOR 5
FT SEAS. WHILE MARGINAL...DECIDED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
DUE TO THIS PERSISTENT SIGNAL.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LINGERING SWELL RECEDES
BELOW 5 FT SUN NIGHT.  HIGH PRES THEN BRINGS QUIET BOATING WEATHER
TO THE WATERS THROUGH MON.

TUE AND WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WARM FRONT ON TUE...THEN A COLD
FRONT ON WED WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W. WHILE WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE S-SE...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SEAS IS ALSO LIKELY TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR
FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 040813
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
413 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND MAY BRINGING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTH COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. A TRANSITION PERIOD IS LIKELY
MID NEXT WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RACES SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE

LATEST GUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS. THE MORE GLOBAL MODELS
ARE MOSTLY DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THE HI-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING RAINFALL TO
WESTERN MA...AS WELL AS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

BASED ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...AM THINKING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN MA AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES OUR REGION.
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE...AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. GIVEN THE TIMING...
AM THINKING THE DRIEST CONDITIONS WILL BE TOWARD NORTHEAST MA...
WHICH IS THE FARTHEST AWAY FROM THE LOW TO THE SOUTH.

THIS SOLUTION IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED
CAMPS. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY...SO NOT THINKING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AN ISSUE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...MOVING SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANY RAINFALL TO AN
END LATE THIS EVENING. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF
US BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING A CLEARING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD MEAN DRY WEATHER WITH HIGHER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...WITH 04.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
COMING IN...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MID AND LONG TERM
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...ALTHOUGH TYPICAL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
LONG TERM. STRONG RIDGING EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ON THE SW QUADRANT OF A STRONG NRN STREAM VORTEX
DEVELOPING ACROSS N CENTRAL CANADA. THE FLATTENING WAVE WILL
ARRIVE MID WEEK...WITH HIGH PWATS AND INSTABILITY IN TOW WHICH MAY
NEED TO BE WATCHED. THERE ARE TIMING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY REGARDING
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FOR TUE...BUT WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THIS ROUND OF GUIDANCE A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL MODELS
WILL WORK WELL AS A BASELINE.

DETAILS...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...WARM RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRES AT THE SFC. MAINLY DRY WX PREVAILS WITH
MODERATING HIGHS/LOWS AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETWEEN +12C AND
+14C BY LATE MON. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUE...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W. MODELS
INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE AS PWATS APPROACH 2 STD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL WITH K-VALUES OVER 30. A WARM FRONT WILL BE THE
INITIAL SFC REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH PRES REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF
TUE. THEREFORE...CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/T-STORM WITH THE WARM
FRONTAL APPROACH MAY BE QUITE LOW TO NEAR ZERO THE FURTHER E ONE
GOES. IN FACT...THE BEST AXIS OF SFC CAPE/THETA-E RIDGE IS MAINLY
W OF THE MA/NY BORDER. THEREFORE...CHANCE POPS W WILL BE LOWERED
TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO NIL POPS FURTHER E. WILL INCLUDE THUNDER WITH
THIS FORECAST GIVEN THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS.

WED...AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...THIS IS WHERE THE MODEL
SOLUTION DIVERGENCE BEGINS TO SHOW MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. MAINLY WITH
THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GFS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE
WHILE ECMWF/CMC CONTINUES TO LINGER AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
PARALLEL THE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SINCE
THE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT
SOME SFC BASED CAPE EXCEEDING 1000J/KG AND HIGH K-VALUES...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE TS...BUT GIVEN THE LACKING SHEAR...REMAIN
SOMEWHAT DUBIOUS OF SEVERE CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

THU...THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
FURTHER SOUTHEAST...ALBEIT SLOWLY. WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE POPS FROM
N-S DURING THE DAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT BEFORE WE CAN NAIL DOWN
TIMING FOR THE LATE WEEK.

FRI AND SAT...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS BUT WITH ZONAL FLOW...A SERIES
OF RIDGE/TROUGH COUPLETS IS LIKELY TO YIELD PERIODS OF
DRY/POTENTIALLY WET PERIODS ARE LIKELY. INTERESTINGLY...WITH SRN
NEW ENGLAND ON THE RIDGE PERIPHERY MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR MCS
STEERING FLOW AS WELL. STILL WAY TOO MANY VARIABLES TO NAIL
ANYTHING DOWN...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOW TO NIL POPS SHOULD
COVER THE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS,,,MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GREATEST RISK FOR MVFR IS AT TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING IFR
CONDITIONS AT BOSTON TOWARD EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MASS/RI SHOULD
TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF RAIN/FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLOUD BASES
LIFTING/CLEARING.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECTING VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOW CONFIDENCE LOWER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP IN ONSHORE
FLOW LATER TODAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EVEN IF A FEW SPRINKLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH HIGH PRES.  SEA
BREEZES LIKELY MON.

TUE AND WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. FIRST A WARM FRONT TUE...THEN A
COLD FRONT WED MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH PERIODIC MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE VFR. SOME FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS
OVER OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. FARTHER NORTH
THE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST...BUT WITH LIGHTER SPEEDS. AS THIS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND TURN
NORTH OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
SUNDAY.

PERSISTENT WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. THERE HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT SIGNAL THE PAST FEW DAYS FOR 5
FT SEAS. WHILE MARGINAL...DECIDED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
DUE TO THIS PERSISTENT SIGNAL.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LINGERING SWELL RECEDES
BELOW 5 FT SUN NIGHT.  HIGH PRES THEN BRINGS QUIET BOATING WEATHER
TO THE WATERS THROUGH MON.

TUE AND WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WARM FRONT ON TUE...THEN A COLD
FRONT ON WED WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W. WHILE WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE S-SE...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SEAS IS ALSO LIKELY TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR
FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KGYX 040704
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
304 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE WELL OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH AND COULD BRING A STRAY SHOWER TO THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND
GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING
TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. A
1010 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA. FOR TODAY...CLOUDS
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SURFACE
LOW PASSING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST IN THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ALOFT AND
EVENTUALLY AT THE SURFACE AS WELL. ON MONDAY THERE SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD 80S AND EVEN POTENTIALLY A FEW 90S. A SEA BREEZE WILL
BE LIKELY AT THE COAST AND WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
THERE.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES BUT A SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT OVER MUCH OF MAINE
AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BEYOND THIS THE TWO MAIN FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE A BIT.
GFS PUSHES THE TROUGH AND FRONT THROUGH FULLY WHILE THE ECMWF
LINGERS THE BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH
THE FRONT LINGERING OFFSHORE... VARIOUS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT AND BRING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PRIMARILY
TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/KIMBLE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 040704
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
304 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE WELL OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH AND COULD BRING A STRAY SHOWER TO THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND
GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING
TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. A
1010 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA. FOR TODAY...CLOUDS
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SURFACE
LOW PASSING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST IN THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ALOFT AND
EVENTUALLY AT THE SURFACE AS WELL. ON MONDAY THERE SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD 80S AND EVEN POTENTIALLY A FEW 90S. A SEA BREEZE WILL
BE LIKELY AT THE COAST AND WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
THERE.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES BUT A SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT OVER MUCH OF MAINE
AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BEYOND THIS THE TWO MAIN FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE A BIT.
GFS PUSHES THE TROUGH AND FRONT THROUGH FULLY WHILE THE ECMWF
LINGERS THE BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH
THE FRONT LINGERING OFFSHORE... VARIOUS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT AND BRING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PRIMARILY
TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 040435
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1230 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST MESONET...AS
WELL AS SATELLITE TRENDS IN FIRST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
1040 PM UPDATE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

625 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLEAR SKIES
WILL BE THE RULE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

PREVIOUSLY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
ALSO A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM OF SYSTEMS. WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THE MOUNTAINS
OF ME/NH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

REGARDING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH KEEPING A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF NH AND ME WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ALL
CONSIDERATION...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TIMING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS. EVEN THE WETTER AND FURTHEST NORTH GFS MODEL
HAS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS WERE ALL
CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO A BLENDED
SOLUTION SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRENGTHENING OF THE 500 MB WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THRU NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHRA OR A TSRA MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT
COULD COULD SEE SOME POP UP ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLYS
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SWIGS THRU AND NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START TO DRY AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT. MON INTO MOST OF TUE LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING MOVES THRU
WITH RH RISING ON MONDAY...AND TDS CREEPING INTO THE LOW 60S BY
TUE /AND MAYBE MID-UPPR 60S BY MID WEEK/. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE IN NH. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WED AND
WED NIGHT AS 500 MB PASSES N AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. THE 12Z EURO WANTS HANG UP THE FRONT TO OUR S AS A WAVE
TRACKS ALONG IT...WHICH WOULD MEAN CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU
TOO...BUT THIS IS TOO FINE A POINT TO HOOK ONTO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON LOWERING CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN THRU TUE...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE
SUN AND MON NIGHT.  WED COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER GUSTS AROUND 20 KT SUBSIDE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN THRU WED. WILL
SEE A SURGE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...WHICH
WILL BRINGS WIND TO NEAR SCA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 040435
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1230 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST MESONET...AS
WELL AS SATELLITE TRENDS IN FIRST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
1040 PM UPDATE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

625 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLEAR SKIES
WILL BE THE RULE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

PREVIOUSLY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
ALSO A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM OF SYSTEMS. WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THE MOUNTAINS
OF ME/NH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

REGARDING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH KEEPING A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF NH AND ME WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ALL
CONSIDERATION...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TIMING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS. EVEN THE WETTER AND FURTHEST NORTH GFS MODEL
HAS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS WERE ALL
CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO A BLENDED
SOLUTION SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRENGTHENING OF THE 500 MB WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THRU NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHRA OR A TSRA MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT
COULD COULD SEE SOME POP UP ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLYS
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SWIGS THRU AND NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START TO DRY AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT. MON INTO MOST OF TUE LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING MOVES THRU
WITH RH RISING ON MONDAY...AND TDS CREEPING INTO THE LOW 60S BY
TUE /AND MAYBE MID-UPPR 60S BY MID WEEK/. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE IN NH. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WED AND
WED NIGHT AS 500 MB PASSES N AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. THE 12Z EURO WANTS HANG UP THE FRONT TO OUR S AS A WAVE
TRACKS ALONG IT...WHICH WOULD MEAN CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU
TOO...BUT THIS IS TOO FINE A POINT TO HOOK ONTO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON LOWERING CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN THRU TUE...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE
SUN AND MON NIGHT.  WED COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER GUSTS AROUND 20 KT SUBSIDE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN THRU WED. WILL
SEE A SURGE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...WHICH
WILL BRINGS WIND TO NEAR SCA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 040435
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1230 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST MESONET...AS
WELL AS SATELLITE TRENDS IN FIRST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
1040 PM UPDATE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

625 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLEAR SKIES
WILL BE THE RULE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

PREVIOUSLY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
ALSO A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM OF SYSTEMS. WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THE MOUNTAINS
OF ME/NH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

REGARDING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH KEEPING A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF NH AND ME WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ALL
CONSIDERATION...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TIMING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS. EVEN THE WETTER AND FURTHEST NORTH GFS MODEL
HAS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS WERE ALL
CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO A BLENDED
SOLUTION SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRENGTHENING OF THE 500 MB WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THRU NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHRA OR A TSRA MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT
COULD COULD SEE SOME POP UP ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLYS
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SWIGS THRU AND NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START TO DRY AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT. MON INTO MOST OF TUE LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING MOVES THRU
WITH RH RISING ON MONDAY...AND TDS CREEPING INTO THE LOW 60S BY
TUE /AND MAYBE MID-UPPR 60S BY MID WEEK/. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE IN NH. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WED AND
WED NIGHT AS 500 MB PASSES N AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. THE 12Z EURO WANTS HANG UP THE FRONT TO OUR S AS A WAVE
TRACKS ALONG IT...WHICH WOULD MEAN CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU
TOO...BUT THIS IS TOO FINE A POINT TO HOOK ONTO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON LOWERING CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN THRU TUE...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE
SUN AND MON NIGHT.  WED COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER GUSTS AROUND 20 KT SUBSIDE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN THRU WED. WILL
SEE A SURGE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...WHICH
WILL BRINGS WIND TO NEAR SCA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 040435
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1230 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST MESONET...AS
WELL AS SATELLITE TRENDS IN FIRST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
1040 PM UPDATE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

625 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLEAR SKIES
WILL BE THE RULE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

PREVIOUSLY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
ALSO A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM OF SYSTEMS. WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THE MOUNTAINS
OF ME/NH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

REGARDING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH KEEPING A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF NH AND ME WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ALL
CONSIDERATION...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TIMING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS. EVEN THE WETTER AND FURTHEST NORTH GFS MODEL
HAS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS WERE ALL
CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO A BLENDED
SOLUTION SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRENGTHENING OF THE 500 MB WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THRU NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHRA OR A TSRA MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT
COULD COULD SEE SOME POP UP ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLYS
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SWIGS THRU AND NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START TO DRY AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT. MON INTO MOST OF TUE LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING MOVES THRU
WITH RH RISING ON MONDAY...AND TDS CREEPING INTO THE LOW 60S BY
TUE /AND MAYBE MID-UPPR 60S BY MID WEEK/. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE IN NH. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WED AND
WED NIGHT AS 500 MB PASSES N AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. THE 12Z EURO WANTS HANG UP THE FRONT TO OUR S AS A WAVE
TRACKS ALONG IT...WHICH WOULD MEAN CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU
TOO...BUT THIS IS TOO FINE A POINT TO HOOK ONTO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON LOWERING CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN THRU TUE...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE
SUN AND MON NIGHT.  WED COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER GUSTS AROUND 20 KT SUBSIDE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN THRU WED. WILL
SEE A SURGE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...WHICH
WILL BRINGS WIND TO NEAR SCA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 040242
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1042 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1040 PM UPDATE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

625 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLEAR SKIES
WILL BE THE RULE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

PREVIOUSLY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
ALSO A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM OF SYSTEMS. WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THE MOUNTAINS
OF ME/NH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

REGARDING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH KEEPING A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF NH AND ME WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ALL
CONSIDERATION...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TIMING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS. EVEN THE WETTER AND FURTHEST NORTH GFS MODEL
HAS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS WERE ALL
CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO A BLENDED
SOLUTION SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRENGTHENING OF THE 500 MB WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THRU NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHRA OR A TSRA MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT
COULD COULD SEE SOME POP UP ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLYS
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SWIGS THRU AND NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START TO DRY AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT. MON INTO MOST OF TUE LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING MOVES THRU
WITH RH RISING ON MONDAY...AND TDS CREEPING INTO THE LOW 60S BY
TUE /AND MAYBE MID-UPPR 60S BY MID WEEK/. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE IN NH. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WED AND
WED NIGHT AS 500 MB PASSES N AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. THE 12Z EURO WANTS HANG UP THE FRONT TO OUR S AS A WAVE
TRACKS ALONG IT...WHICH WOULD MEAN CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU
TOO...BUT THIS IS TOO FINE A POINT TO HOOK ONTO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON LOWERING CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN THRU TUE...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE
SUN AND MON NIGHT.  WED COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER GUSTS AROUND 20 KT SUBSIDE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN THRU WED. WILL
SEE A SURGE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...WHICH
WILL BRINGS WIND TO NEAR SCA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER



000
FXUS61 KGYX 040242
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1042 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1040 PM UPDATE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

625 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLEAR SKIES
WILL BE THE RULE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

PREVIOUSLY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
ALSO A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM OF SYSTEMS. WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THE MOUNTAINS
OF ME/NH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

REGARDING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH KEEPING A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF NH AND ME WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ALL
CONSIDERATION...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TIMING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS. EVEN THE WETTER AND FURTHEST NORTH GFS MODEL
HAS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS WERE ALL
CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO A BLENDED
SOLUTION SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRENGTHENING OF THE 500 MB WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THRU NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHRA OR A TSRA MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT
COULD COULD SEE SOME POP UP ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLYS
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SWIGS THRU AND NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START TO DRY AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT. MON INTO MOST OF TUE LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING MOVES THRU
WITH RH RISING ON MONDAY...AND TDS CREEPING INTO THE LOW 60S BY
TUE /AND MAYBE MID-UPPR 60S BY MID WEEK/. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE IN NH. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WED AND
WED NIGHT AS 500 MB PASSES N AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. THE 12Z EURO WANTS HANG UP THE FRONT TO OUR S AS A WAVE
TRACKS ALONG IT...WHICH WOULD MEAN CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU
TOO...BUT THIS IS TOO FINE A POINT TO HOOK ONTO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON LOWERING CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN THRU TUE...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE
SUN AND MON NIGHT.  WED COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER GUSTS AROUND 20 KT SUBSIDE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN THRU WED. WILL
SEE A SURGE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...WHICH
WILL BRINGS WIND TO NEAR SCA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER




000
FXUS61 KBOX 040239
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1039 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON JULY 4TH
AND MAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTH COASTAL AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
ON TUESDAY AND COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1039 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS
SPILLING OVER SHORTWAVE RIDGE. WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING TROF.

WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST STILL ON TRACK...ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS
TO BRING FORECAST BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
INDEPENDENCE DAY...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RACES SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE

HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE 18Z GFS RUN AND IT
SUPPRESSES THE RAIN A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE IN LINE WITH
OTHER MODELS. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF POPS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME AND HAVE NOT MODIFIED FROM PRIOR FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND THE PAST 24 HOURS
REGARDING THE HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW THAT PASSES SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS
ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE NAM AND GGEM CLIP CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. THE ECMWF COMPROMISES WITH PCPN ACROSS RI AND SE MASS. WE
FAVORED THE ECMWF PLACEMENT IN SETTING UP OUR POPS...LIKELY POPS
ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST...CHANCE POPS IN SE MASS/RI/NE
CT...SLIGHT CHANCE NE MASS AND NCENTRAL MASS. CONVECTION FROM NEW
YORK MAY CROSS INTO WESTERN MASS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN WESTERN MASS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE COASTAL LOW CROSSES 40N/70W IN THE EVENING AND MOVES SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANY PCPN TO AN END
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF US BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING A CLEARING TREND
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP AREA DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
   THROUGH MONDAY.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
   LINGERING INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW...AS ONE WOULD EXPECT IN JULY...ANY ROBUST SHORT WAVES PASS
NORTH OF REGION WITH HEIGHTS RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY ZONAL BUT WITH A TENDENCY
FOR WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MAIN ISSUES INCLUDE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...OFTEN MORE PROBLEMATIC IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW...AND WHETHER OR NOT WEAK SURFACE WAVES MAY FORM ALONG
PASSING COLD FRONTS.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH KEEPING THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WITH POSSIBLY MODEST INSTABILITY BURST ALOFT
PER K INDEX SIGNATURE MOVES THROUGH REGION. AIR MASS MOISTENS
WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ON THE GFS. THINKING CHANCE
POPS NW TWO THIRDS OF AREA WHERE A HINT OF A LITTLE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND SLIGHT CHANCE MOST OF SE THIRD. BELIEVE LESS
CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT MAY SEE A FEW
AIR MASS TSTMS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN NW MA.
WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IN TURN LEADS TO SOME ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES FOR WED. EVEN THE FASTER
GFS...HOWEVER...DEPICTS SOME LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS ON WED. MAY SEE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS THAT MOVE
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR
SUGGESTS FOR NOW THAT CONVECTION WILL NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED.
THURSDAY...A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THU GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES. ECMWF DEVELOPS WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND HOLDS RAFL
BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH POPS IN THE UPPER END OF THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THU...REFLECTING THE RELATIVELY HIGH
UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY...HAVE GONE WITH CONTINUITY OF DRY WEATHER FOR FRI BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES A PASSING
SHORT WAVE TROF AND DEVELOPS STILL ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WAS NOT REFLECTED IN THE 00Z VERSION.
IF THE LATEST ECMWF RUN WERE TAKEN LITERALLY...IT WOULD HAVE A
SOAKING RAIN SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND SE MA FOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IN CONTRAST KEEPS ANY FRONTAL
WAVE ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY A FEW ENSEMBLE
RUNS SUGGESTING ANYTHING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST THE FRI FORECAST AS WE DRAW CLOSER AND GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM S
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WE
ARE MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CONDITIONS AT BOSTON TOWARD
EVENING DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THAT TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MASS/RI SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF
RAIN/FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLOUD BASES LIFTING/CLEARING
OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EVEN IF A FEW SPRINKLES LATE SAT AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. POCKETS OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/FOG ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS.

SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS
OVER OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. FARTHER NORTH
THE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST BUT AT LIGHTER SPEEDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THOSE WATERS. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
TURN NORTH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSIDING SWELL SUN MORNING...PROBABLY JUST UNDER 5 FEET...OVER THE
OUTER S AND SE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AREAS OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IN FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/BELK/THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KBOX 040239
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1039 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON JULY 4TH
AND MAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTH COASTAL AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
ON TUESDAY AND COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1039 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS
SPILLING OVER SHORTWAVE RIDGE. WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING TROF.

WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST STILL ON TRACK...ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS
TO BRING FORECAST BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
INDEPENDENCE DAY...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RACES SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE

HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE 18Z GFS RUN AND IT
SUPPRESSES THE RAIN A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE IN LINE WITH
OTHER MODELS. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF POPS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME AND HAVE NOT MODIFIED FROM PRIOR FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND THE PAST 24 HOURS
REGARDING THE HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW THAT PASSES SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS
ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE NAM AND GGEM CLIP CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. THE ECMWF COMPROMISES WITH PCPN ACROSS RI AND SE MASS. WE
FAVORED THE ECMWF PLACEMENT IN SETTING UP OUR POPS...LIKELY POPS
ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST...CHANCE POPS IN SE MASS/RI/NE
CT...SLIGHT CHANCE NE MASS AND NCENTRAL MASS. CONVECTION FROM NEW
YORK MAY CROSS INTO WESTERN MASS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN WESTERN MASS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE COASTAL LOW CROSSES 40N/70W IN THE EVENING AND MOVES SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANY PCPN TO AN END
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF US BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING A CLEARING TREND
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP AREA DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
   THROUGH MONDAY.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
   LINGERING INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW...AS ONE WOULD EXPECT IN JULY...ANY ROBUST SHORT WAVES PASS
NORTH OF REGION WITH HEIGHTS RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY ZONAL BUT WITH A TENDENCY
FOR WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MAIN ISSUES INCLUDE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...OFTEN MORE PROBLEMATIC IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW...AND WHETHER OR NOT WEAK SURFACE WAVES MAY FORM ALONG
PASSING COLD FRONTS.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH KEEPING THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WITH POSSIBLY MODEST INSTABILITY BURST ALOFT
PER K INDEX SIGNATURE MOVES THROUGH REGION. AIR MASS MOISTENS
WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ON THE GFS. THINKING CHANCE
POPS NW TWO THIRDS OF AREA WHERE A HINT OF A LITTLE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND SLIGHT CHANCE MOST OF SE THIRD. BELIEVE LESS
CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT MAY SEE A FEW
AIR MASS TSTMS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN NW MA.
WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IN TURN LEADS TO SOME ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES FOR WED. EVEN THE FASTER
GFS...HOWEVER...DEPICTS SOME LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS ON WED. MAY SEE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS THAT MOVE
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR
SUGGESTS FOR NOW THAT CONVECTION WILL NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED.
THURSDAY...A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THU GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES. ECMWF DEVELOPS WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND HOLDS RAFL
BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH POPS IN THE UPPER END OF THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THU...REFLECTING THE RELATIVELY HIGH
UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY...HAVE GONE WITH CONTINUITY OF DRY WEATHER FOR FRI BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES A PASSING
SHORT WAVE TROF AND DEVELOPS STILL ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WAS NOT REFLECTED IN THE 00Z VERSION.
IF THE LATEST ECMWF RUN WERE TAKEN LITERALLY...IT WOULD HAVE A
SOAKING RAIN SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND SE MA FOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IN CONTRAST KEEPS ANY FRONTAL
WAVE ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY A FEW ENSEMBLE
RUNS SUGGESTING ANYTHING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST THE FRI FORECAST AS WE DRAW CLOSER AND GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM S
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WE
ARE MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CONDITIONS AT BOSTON TOWARD
EVENING DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THAT TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MASS/RI SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF
RAIN/FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLOUD BASES LIFTING/CLEARING
OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EVEN IF A FEW SPRINKLES LATE SAT AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. POCKETS OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/FOG ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS.

SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS
OVER OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. FARTHER NORTH
THE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST BUT AT LIGHTER SPEEDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THOSE WATERS. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
TURN NORTH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSIDING SWELL SUN MORNING...PROBABLY JUST UNDER 5 FEET...OVER THE
OUTER S AND SE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AREAS OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IN FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/BELK/THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KBOX 040239
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1039 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON JULY 4TH
AND MAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTH COASTAL AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
ON TUESDAY AND COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1039 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS
SPILLING OVER SHORTWAVE RIDGE. WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING TROF.

WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST STILL ON TRACK...ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS
TO BRING FORECAST BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
INDEPENDENCE DAY...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RACES SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE

HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE 18Z GFS RUN AND IT
SUPPRESSES THE RAIN A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE IN LINE WITH
OTHER MODELS. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF POPS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME AND HAVE NOT MODIFIED FROM PRIOR FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND THE PAST 24 HOURS
REGARDING THE HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW THAT PASSES SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS
ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE NAM AND GGEM CLIP CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. THE ECMWF COMPROMISES WITH PCPN ACROSS RI AND SE MASS. WE
FAVORED THE ECMWF PLACEMENT IN SETTING UP OUR POPS...LIKELY POPS
ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST...CHANCE POPS IN SE MASS/RI/NE
CT...SLIGHT CHANCE NE MASS AND NCENTRAL MASS. CONVECTION FROM NEW
YORK MAY CROSS INTO WESTERN MASS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN WESTERN MASS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE COASTAL LOW CROSSES 40N/70W IN THE EVENING AND MOVES SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANY PCPN TO AN END
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF US BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING A CLEARING TREND
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP AREA DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
   THROUGH MONDAY.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
   LINGERING INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW...AS ONE WOULD EXPECT IN JULY...ANY ROBUST SHORT WAVES PASS
NORTH OF REGION WITH HEIGHTS RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY ZONAL BUT WITH A TENDENCY
FOR WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MAIN ISSUES INCLUDE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...OFTEN MORE PROBLEMATIC IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW...AND WHETHER OR NOT WEAK SURFACE WAVES MAY FORM ALONG
PASSING COLD FRONTS.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH KEEPING THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WITH POSSIBLY MODEST INSTABILITY BURST ALOFT
PER K INDEX SIGNATURE MOVES THROUGH REGION. AIR MASS MOISTENS
WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ON THE GFS. THINKING CHANCE
POPS NW TWO THIRDS OF AREA WHERE A HINT OF A LITTLE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND SLIGHT CHANCE MOST OF SE THIRD. BELIEVE LESS
CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT MAY SEE A FEW
AIR MASS TSTMS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN NW MA.
WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IN TURN LEADS TO SOME ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES FOR WED. EVEN THE FASTER
GFS...HOWEVER...DEPICTS SOME LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS ON WED. MAY SEE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS THAT MOVE
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR
SUGGESTS FOR NOW THAT CONVECTION WILL NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED.
THURSDAY...A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THU GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES. ECMWF DEVELOPS WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND HOLDS RAFL
BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH POPS IN THE UPPER END OF THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THU...REFLECTING THE RELATIVELY HIGH
UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY...HAVE GONE WITH CONTINUITY OF DRY WEATHER FOR FRI BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES A PASSING
SHORT WAVE TROF AND DEVELOPS STILL ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WAS NOT REFLECTED IN THE 00Z VERSION.
IF THE LATEST ECMWF RUN WERE TAKEN LITERALLY...IT WOULD HAVE A
SOAKING RAIN SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND SE MA FOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IN CONTRAST KEEPS ANY FRONTAL
WAVE ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY A FEW ENSEMBLE
RUNS SUGGESTING ANYTHING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST THE FRI FORECAST AS WE DRAW CLOSER AND GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM S
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WE
ARE MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CONDITIONS AT BOSTON TOWARD
EVENING DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THAT TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MASS/RI SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF
RAIN/FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLOUD BASES LIFTING/CLEARING
OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EVEN IF A FEW SPRINKLES LATE SAT AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. POCKETS OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/FOG ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS.

SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS
OVER OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. FARTHER NORTH
THE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST BUT AT LIGHTER SPEEDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THOSE WATERS. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
TURN NORTH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSIDING SWELL SUN MORNING...PROBABLY JUST UNDER 5 FEET...OVER THE
OUTER S AND SE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AREAS OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IN FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/BELK/THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KBOX 040239
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1039 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON JULY 4TH
AND MAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTH COASTAL AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
ON TUESDAY AND COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1039 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS
SPILLING OVER SHORTWAVE RIDGE. WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING TROF.

WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST STILL ON TRACK...ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS
TO BRING FORECAST BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
INDEPENDENCE DAY...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RACES SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE

HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE 18Z GFS RUN AND IT
SUPPRESSES THE RAIN A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE IN LINE WITH
OTHER MODELS. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF POPS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME AND HAVE NOT MODIFIED FROM PRIOR FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND THE PAST 24 HOURS
REGARDING THE HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW THAT PASSES SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS
ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE NAM AND GGEM CLIP CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. THE ECMWF COMPROMISES WITH PCPN ACROSS RI AND SE MASS. WE
FAVORED THE ECMWF PLACEMENT IN SETTING UP OUR POPS...LIKELY POPS
ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST...CHANCE POPS IN SE MASS/RI/NE
CT...SLIGHT CHANCE NE MASS AND NCENTRAL MASS. CONVECTION FROM NEW
YORK MAY CROSS INTO WESTERN MASS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN WESTERN MASS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE COASTAL LOW CROSSES 40N/70W IN THE EVENING AND MOVES SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANY PCPN TO AN END
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF US BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING A CLEARING TREND
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP AREA DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
   THROUGH MONDAY.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
   LINGERING INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW...AS ONE WOULD EXPECT IN JULY...ANY ROBUST SHORT WAVES PASS
NORTH OF REGION WITH HEIGHTS RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY ZONAL BUT WITH A TENDENCY
FOR WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MAIN ISSUES INCLUDE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...OFTEN MORE PROBLEMATIC IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW...AND WHETHER OR NOT WEAK SURFACE WAVES MAY FORM ALONG
PASSING COLD FRONTS.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH KEEPING THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WITH POSSIBLY MODEST INSTABILITY BURST ALOFT
PER K INDEX SIGNATURE MOVES THROUGH REGION. AIR MASS MOISTENS
WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ON THE GFS. THINKING CHANCE
POPS NW TWO THIRDS OF AREA WHERE A HINT OF A LITTLE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND SLIGHT CHANCE MOST OF SE THIRD. BELIEVE LESS
CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT MAY SEE A FEW
AIR MASS TSTMS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN NW MA.
WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IN TURN LEADS TO SOME ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES FOR WED. EVEN THE FASTER
GFS...HOWEVER...DEPICTS SOME LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS ON WED. MAY SEE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS THAT MOVE
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR
SUGGESTS FOR NOW THAT CONVECTION WILL NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED.
THURSDAY...A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THU GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES. ECMWF DEVELOPS WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND HOLDS RAFL
BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH POPS IN THE UPPER END OF THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THU...REFLECTING THE RELATIVELY HIGH
UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY...HAVE GONE WITH CONTINUITY OF DRY WEATHER FOR FRI BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES A PASSING
SHORT WAVE TROF AND DEVELOPS STILL ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WAS NOT REFLECTED IN THE 00Z VERSION.
IF THE LATEST ECMWF RUN WERE TAKEN LITERALLY...IT WOULD HAVE A
SOAKING RAIN SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND SE MA FOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IN CONTRAST KEEPS ANY FRONTAL
WAVE ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY A FEW ENSEMBLE
RUNS SUGGESTING ANYTHING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST THE FRI FORECAST AS WE DRAW CLOSER AND GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM S
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WE
ARE MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CONDITIONS AT BOSTON TOWARD
EVENING DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THAT TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MASS/RI SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF
RAIN/FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLOUD BASES LIFTING/CLEARING
OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EVEN IF A FEW SPRINKLES LATE SAT AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. POCKETS OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/FOG ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS.

SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS
OVER OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. FARTHER NORTH
THE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST BUT AT LIGHTER SPEEDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THOSE WATERS. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
TURN NORTH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSIDING SWELL SUN MORNING...PROBABLY JUST UNDER 5 FEET...OVER THE
OUTER S AND SE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AREAS OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IN FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/BELK/THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KBOX 040239
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1039 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON JULY 4TH
AND MAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTH COASTAL AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
ON TUESDAY AND COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1039 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS
SPILLING OVER SHORTWAVE RIDGE. WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING TROF.

WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST STILL ON TRACK...ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS
TO BRING FORECAST BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
INDEPENDENCE DAY...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RACES SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE

HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE 18Z GFS RUN AND IT
SUPPRESSES THE RAIN A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE IN LINE WITH
OTHER MODELS. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF POPS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME AND HAVE NOT MODIFIED FROM PRIOR FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND THE PAST 24 HOURS
REGARDING THE HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW THAT PASSES SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS
ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE NAM AND GGEM CLIP CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. THE ECMWF COMPROMISES WITH PCPN ACROSS RI AND SE MASS. WE
FAVORED THE ECMWF PLACEMENT IN SETTING UP OUR POPS...LIKELY POPS
ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST...CHANCE POPS IN SE MASS/RI/NE
CT...SLIGHT CHANCE NE MASS AND NCENTRAL MASS. CONVECTION FROM NEW
YORK MAY CROSS INTO WESTERN MASS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN WESTERN MASS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE COASTAL LOW CROSSES 40N/70W IN THE EVENING AND MOVES SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANY PCPN TO AN END
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF US BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING A CLEARING TREND
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP AREA DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
   THROUGH MONDAY.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
   LINGERING INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW...AS ONE WOULD EXPECT IN JULY...ANY ROBUST SHORT WAVES PASS
NORTH OF REGION WITH HEIGHTS RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY ZONAL BUT WITH A TENDENCY
FOR WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MAIN ISSUES INCLUDE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...OFTEN MORE PROBLEMATIC IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW...AND WHETHER OR NOT WEAK SURFACE WAVES MAY FORM ALONG
PASSING COLD FRONTS.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH KEEPING THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WITH POSSIBLY MODEST INSTABILITY BURST ALOFT
PER K INDEX SIGNATURE MOVES THROUGH REGION. AIR MASS MOISTENS
WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ON THE GFS. THINKING CHANCE
POPS NW TWO THIRDS OF AREA WHERE A HINT OF A LITTLE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND SLIGHT CHANCE MOST OF SE THIRD. BELIEVE LESS
CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT MAY SEE A FEW
AIR MASS TSTMS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN NW MA.
WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IN TURN LEADS TO SOME ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES FOR WED. EVEN THE FASTER
GFS...HOWEVER...DEPICTS SOME LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS ON WED. MAY SEE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS THAT MOVE
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR
SUGGESTS FOR NOW THAT CONVECTION WILL NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED.
THURSDAY...A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THU GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES. ECMWF DEVELOPS WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND HOLDS RAFL
BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH POPS IN THE UPPER END OF THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THU...REFLECTING THE RELATIVELY HIGH
UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY...HAVE GONE WITH CONTINUITY OF DRY WEATHER FOR FRI BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES A PASSING
SHORT WAVE TROF AND DEVELOPS STILL ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WAS NOT REFLECTED IN THE 00Z VERSION.
IF THE LATEST ECMWF RUN WERE TAKEN LITERALLY...IT WOULD HAVE A
SOAKING RAIN SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND SE MA FOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IN CONTRAST KEEPS ANY FRONTAL
WAVE ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY A FEW ENSEMBLE
RUNS SUGGESTING ANYTHING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST THE FRI FORECAST AS WE DRAW CLOSER AND GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM S
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WE
ARE MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CONDITIONS AT BOSTON TOWARD
EVENING DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THAT TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MASS/RI SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF
RAIN/FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLOUD BASES LIFTING/CLEARING
OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EVEN IF A FEW SPRINKLES LATE SAT AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. POCKETS OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/FOG ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS.

SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS
OVER OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. FARTHER NORTH
THE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST BUT AT LIGHTER SPEEDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THOSE WATERS. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
TURN NORTH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSIDING SWELL SUN MORNING...PROBABLY JUST UNDER 5 FEET...OVER THE
OUTER S AND SE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AREAS OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IN FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/BELK/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 040239
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1039 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON JULY 4TH
AND MAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTH COASTAL AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
ON TUESDAY AND COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1039 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS
SPILLING OVER SHORTWAVE RIDGE. WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING TROF.

WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST STILL ON TRACK...ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS
TO BRING FORECAST BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
INDEPENDENCE DAY...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RACES SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE

HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE 18Z GFS RUN AND IT
SUPPRESSES THE RAIN A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE IN LINE WITH
OTHER MODELS. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF POPS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME AND HAVE NOT MODIFIED FROM PRIOR FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND THE PAST 24 HOURS
REGARDING THE HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW THAT PASSES SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS
ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE NAM AND GGEM CLIP CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. THE ECMWF COMPROMISES WITH PCPN ACROSS RI AND SE MASS. WE
FAVORED THE ECMWF PLACEMENT IN SETTING UP OUR POPS...LIKELY POPS
ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST...CHANCE POPS IN SE MASS/RI/NE
CT...SLIGHT CHANCE NE MASS AND NCENTRAL MASS. CONVECTION FROM NEW
YORK MAY CROSS INTO WESTERN MASS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN WESTERN MASS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE COASTAL LOW CROSSES 40N/70W IN THE EVENING AND MOVES SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANY PCPN TO AN END
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF US BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING A CLEARING TREND
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP AREA DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
   THROUGH MONDAY.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
   LINGERING INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW...AS ONE WOULD EXPECT IN JULY...ANY ROBUST SHORT WAVES PASS
NORTH OF REGION WITH HEIGHTS RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY ZONAL BUT WITH A TENDENCY
FOR WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MAIN ISSUES INCLUDE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...OFTEN MORE PROBLEMATIC IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW...AND WHETHER OR NOT WEAK SURFACE WAVES MAY FORM ALONG
PASSING COLD FRONTS.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH KEEPING THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WITH POSSIBLY MODEST INSTABILITY BURST ALOFT
PER K INDEX SIGNATURE MOVES THROUGH REGION. AIR MASS MOISTENS
WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ON THE GFS. THINKING CHANCE
POPS NW TWO THIRDS OF AREA WHERE A HINT OF A LITTLE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND SLIGHT CHANCE MOST OF SE THIRD. BELIEVE LESS
CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT MAY SEE A FEW
AIR MASS TSTMS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN NW MA.
WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IN TURN LEADS TO SOME ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES FOR WED. EVEN THE FASTER
GFS...HOWEVER...DEPICTS SOME LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS ON WED. MAY SEE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS THAT MOVE
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR
SUGGESTS FOR NOW THAT CONVECTION WILL NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED.
THURSDAY...A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THU GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES. ECMWF DEVELOPS WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND HOLDS RAFL
BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH POPS IN THE UPPER END OF THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THU...REFLECTING THE RELATIVELY HIGH
UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY...HAVE GONE WITH CONTINUITY OF DRY WEATHER FOR FRI BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES A PASSING
SHORT WAVE TROF AND DEVELOPS STILL ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WAS NOT REFLECTED IN THE 00Z VERSION.
IF THE LATEST ECMWF RUN WERE TAKEN LITERALLY...IT WOULD HAVE A
SOAKING RAIN SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND SE MA FOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IN CONTRAST KEEPS ANY FRONTAL
WAVE ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY A FEW ENSEMBLE
RUNS SUGGESTING ANYTHING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST THE FRI FORECAST AS WE DRAW CLOSER AND GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM S
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WE
ARE MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CONDITIONS AT BOSTON TOWARD
EVENING DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THAT TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MASS/RI SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF
RAIN/FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLOUD BASES LIFTING/CLEARING
OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EVEN IF A FEW SPRINKLES LATE SAT AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. POCKETS OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/FOG ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS.

SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS
OVER OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. FARTHER NORTH
THE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST BUT AT LIGHTER SPEEDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THOSE WATERS. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
TURN NORTH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSIDING SWELL SUN MORNING...PROBABLY JUST UNDER 5 FEET...OVER THE
OUTER S AND SE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AREAS OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IN FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/BELK/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 040239
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1039 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON JULY 4TH
AND MAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTH COASTAL AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
ON TUESDAY AND COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1039 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS
SPILLING OVER SHORTWAVE RIDGE. WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING TROF.

WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST STILL ON TRACK...ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS
TO BRING FORECAST BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
INDEPENDENCE DAY...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RACES SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE

HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE 18Z GFS RUN AND IT
SUPPRESSES THE RAIN A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE IN LINE WITH
OTHER MODELS. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF POPS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME AND HAVE NOT MODIFIED FROM PRIOR FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND THE PAST 24 HOURS
REGARDING THE HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW THAT PASSES SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS
ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE NAM AND GGEM CLIP CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. THE ECMWF COMPROMISES WITH PCPN ACROSS RI AND SE MASS. WE
FAVORED THE ECMWF PLACEMENT IN SETTING UP OUR POPS...LIKELY POPS
ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST...CHANCE POPS IN SE MASS/RI/NE
CT...SLIGHT CHANCE NE MASS AND NCENTRAL MASS. CONVECTION FROM NEW
YORK MAY CROSS INTO WESTERN MASS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN WESTERN MASS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE COASTAL LOW CROSSES 40N/70W IN THE EVENING AND MOVES SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANY PCPN TO AN END
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF US BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING A CLEARING TREND
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP AREA DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
   THROUGH MONDAY.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
   LINGERING INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW...AS ONE WOULD EXPECT IN JULY...ANY ROBUST SHORT WAVES PASS
NORTH OF REGION WITH HEIGHTS RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY ZONAL BUT WITH A TENDENCY
FOR WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MAIN ISSUES INCLUDE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...OFTEN MORE PROBLEMATIC IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW...AND WHETHER OR NOT WEAK SURFACE WAVES MAY FORM ALONG
PASSING COLD FRONTS.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH KEEPING THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WITH POSSIBLY MODEST INSTABILITY BURST ALOFT
PER K INDEX SIGNATURE MOVES THROUGH REGION. AIR MASS MOISTENS
WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ON THE GFS. THINKING CHANCE
POPS NW TWO THIRDS OF AREA WHERE A HINT OF A LITTLE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND SLIGHT CHANCE MOST OF SE THIRD. BELIEVE LESS
CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT MAY SEE A FEW
AIR MASS TSTMS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN NW MA.
WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IN TURN LEADS TO SOME ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES FOR WED. EVEN THE FASTER
GFS...HOWEVER...DEPICTS SOME LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS ON WED. MAY SEE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS THAT MOVE
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR
SUGGESTS FOR NOW THAT CONVECTION WILL NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED.
THURSDAY...A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THU GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES. ECMWF DEVELOPS WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND HOLDS RAFL
BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH POPS IN THE UPPER END OF THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THU...REFLECTING THE RELATIVELY HIGH
UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY...HAVE GONE WITH CONTINUITY OF DRY WEATHER FOR FRI BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES A PASSING
SHORT WAVE TROF AND DEVELOPS STILL ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WAS NOT REFLECTED IN THE 00Z VERSION.
IF THE LATEST ECMWF RUN WERE TAKEN LITERALLY...IT WOULD HAVE A
SOAKING RAIN SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND SE MA FOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IN CONTRAST KEEPS ANY FRONTAL
WAVE ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY A FEW ENSEMBLE
RUNS SUGGESTING ANYTHING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST THE FRI FORECAST AS WE DRAW CLOSER AND GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM S
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WE
ARE MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CONDITIONS AT BOSTON TOWARD
EVENING DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THAT TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MASS/RI SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF
RAIN/FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLOUD BASES LIFTING/CLEARING
OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EVEN IF A FEW SPRINKLES LATE SAT AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. POCKETS OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/FOG ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS.

SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS
OVER OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. FARTHER NORTH
THE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST BUT AT LIGHTER SPEEDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THOSE WATERS. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
TURN NORTH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSIDING SWELL SUN MORNING...PROBABLY JUST UNDER 5 FEET...OVER THE
OUTER S AND SE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AREAS OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IN FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/BELK/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 040239
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1039 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON JULY 4TH
AND MAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTH COASTAL AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
ON TUESDAY AND COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1039 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS
SPILLING OVER SHORTWAVE RIDGE. WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING TROF.

WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST STILL ON TRACK...ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS
TO BRING FORECAST BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
INDEPENDENCE DAY...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RACES SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE

HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE 18Z GFS RUN AND IT
SUPPRESSES THE RAIN A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE IN LINE WITH
OTHER MODELS. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF POPS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME AND HAVE NOT MODIFIED FROM PRIOR FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND THE PAST 24 HOURS
REGARDING THE HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW THAT PASSES SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS
ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE NAM AND GGEM CLIP CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. THE ECMWF COMPROMISES WITH PCPN ACROSS RI AND SE MASS. WE
FAVORED THE ECMWF PLACEMENT IN SETTING UP OUR POPS...LIKELY POPS
ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST...CHANCE POPS IN SE MASS/RI/NE
CT...SLIGHT CHANCE NE MASS AND NCENTRAL MASS. CONVECTION FROM NEW
YORK MAY CROSS INTO WESTERN MASS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN WESTERN MASS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE COASTAL LOW CROSSES 40N/70W IN THE EVENING AND MOVES SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANY PCPN TO AN END
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF US BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING A CLEARING TREND
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP AREA DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
   THROUGH MONDAY.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
   LINGERING INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW...AS ONE WOULD EXPECT IN JULY...ANY ROBUST SHORT WAVES PASS
NORTH OF REGION WITH HEIGHTS RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY ZONAL BUT WITH A TENDENCY
FOR WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MAIN ISSUES INCLUDE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...OFTEN MORE PROBLEMATIC IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW...AND WHETHER OR NOT WEAK SURFACE WAVES MAY FORM ALONG
PASSING COLD FRONTS.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH KEEPING THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WITH POSSIBLY MODEST INSTABILITY BURST ALOFT
PER K INDEX SIGNATURE MOVES THROUGH REGION. AIR MASS MOISTENS
WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ON THE GFS. THINKING CHANCE
POPS NW TWO THIRDS OF AREA WHERE A HINT OF A LITTLE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND SLIGHT CHANCE MOST OF SE THIRD. BELIEVE LESS
CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT MAY SEE A FEW
AIR MASS TSTMS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN NW MA.
WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IN TURN LEADS TO SOME ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES FOR WED. EVEN THE FASTER
GFS...HOWEVER...DEPICTS SOME LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS ON WED. MAY SEE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS THAT MOVE
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR
SUGGESTS FOR NOW THAT CONVECTION WILL NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED.
THURSDAY...A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THU GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES. ECMWF DEVELOPS WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND HOLDS RAFL
BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH POPS IN THE UPPER END OF THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THU...REFLECTING THE RELATIVELY HIGH
UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY...HAVE GONE WITH CONTINUITY OF DRY WEATHER FOR FRI BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES A PASSING
SHORT WAVE TROF AND DEVELOPS STILL ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WAS NOT REFLECTED IN THE 00Z VERSION.
IF THE LATEST ECMWF RUN WERE TAKEN LITERALLY...IT WOULD HAVE A
SOAKING RAIN SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND SE MA FOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IN CONTRAST KEEPS ANY FRONTAL
WAVE ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY A FEW ENSEMBLE
RUNS SUGGESTING ANYTHING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST THE FRI FORECAST AS WE DRAW CLOSER AND GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM S
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WE
ARE MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CONDITIONS AT BOSTON TOWARD
EVENING DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THAT TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MASS/RI SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF
RAIN/FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLOUD BASES LIFTING/CLEARING
OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EVEN IF A FEW SPRINKLES LATE SAT AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. POCKETS OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/FOG ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS.

SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS
OVER OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. FARTHER NORTH
THE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST BUT AT LIGHTER SPEEDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THOSE WATERS. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
TURN NORTH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSIDING SWELL SUN MORNING...PROBABLY JUST UNDER 5 FEET...OVER THE
OUTER S AND SE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AREAS OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IN FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/BELK/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 032339
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
739 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON JULY 4TH
AND MAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTH COASTAL AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
ON TUESDAY AND COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

730 PM UPDATE FOR TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS
SPILLING OVER SHORT WAVE RIDGE. WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT BUT INCREASING
CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROF.

WITH ONLY THIN CIRRUS JUST WORKING INTO REGION THIS
EVENING AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXPECT
TEMPS TO COOL QUICKLY AND THEN MORE SLOWLY AS HIGH CLOUDS AND
DEWPOINTS INCREASE. LOWERED MIN TEMPS JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN
NW MA FROM PRIOR FORECAST. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
INDEPENDENCE DAY...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RACES SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE

HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE 18Z GFS RUN AND IT
SUPPRESSES THE RAIN A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE IN LINE WITH
OTHER MODELS. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF POPS STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE...HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME AND HAVE NOT MODIFIED FROM
PRIOR FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND THE PAST 24 HOURS
REGARDING THE HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW THAT PASSES SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS
ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE NAM AND GGEM CLIP CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. THE ECMWF COMPROMISES WITH PCPN ACROSS RI AND SE MASS. WE
FAVORED THE ECMWF PLACEMENT IN SETTING UP OUR POPS...LIKELY POPS
ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST...CHANCE POPS IN SE MASS/RI/NE
CT...SLIGHT CHANCE NE MASS AND NCENTRAL MASS. CONVECTION FROM NEW
YORK MAY CROSS INTO WESTERN MASS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN WESTERN MASS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE COASTAL LOW CROSSES 40N/70W IN THE EVENING AND MOVES SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANY PCPN TO AN END
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF US BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING A CLEARING TREND
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP AREA DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
   THROUGH MONDAY.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
   LINGERING INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW...AS ONE WOULD EXPECT IN JULY...ANY ROBUST SHORT WAVES PASS
NORTH OF REGION WITH HEIGHTS RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY ZONAL BUT WITH A TENDENCY
FOR WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MAIN ISSUES INCLUDE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...OFTEN MORE PROBLEMATIC IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW...AND WHETHER OR NOT WEAK SURFACE WAVES MAY FORM ALONG
PASSING COLD FRONTS.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH KEEPING THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WITH POSSIBLY MODEST INSTABILITY BURST ALOFT
PER K INDEX SIGNATURE MOVES THROUGH REGION. AIR MASS MOISTENS
WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ON THE GFS. THINKING CHANCE
POPS NW TWO THIRDS OF AREA WHERE A HINT OF A LITTLE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND SLIGHT CHANCE MOST OF SE THIRD. BELIEVE LESS
CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT MAY SEE A FEW
AIR MASS TSTMS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN NW MA.
WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IN TURN LEADS TO SOME ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES FOR WED. EVEN THE FASTER
GFS...HOWEVER...DEPICTS SOME LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS ON WED. MAY SEE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS THAT MOVE
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR
SUGGESTS FOR NOW THAT CONVECTION WILL NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED.
THURSDAY...A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THU GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES. ECMWF DEVELOPS WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND HOLDS RAFL
BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH POPS IN THE UPPER END OF THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THU...REFLECTING THE RELATIVELY HIGH
UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY...HAVE GONE WITH CONTINUITY OF DRY WEATHER FOR FRI BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES A PASSING
SHORT WAVE TROF AND DEVELOPS STILL ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WAS NOT REFLECTED IN THE 00Z VERSION.
IF THE LATEST ECMWF RUN WERE TAKEN LITERALLY...IT WOULD HAVE A
SOAKING RAIN SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND SE MA FOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IN CONTRAST KEEPS ANY FRONTAL
WAVE ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY A FEW ENSEMBLE
RUNS SUGGESTING ANYTHING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST THE FRI FORECAST AS WE DRAW CLOSER AND GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM S
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WE
ARE MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CONDITIONS AT BOSTON TOWARD
EVENING DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THAT TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MASS/RI SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF
RAIN/FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLOUD BASES LIFTING/CLEARING
OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EVEN IF A FEW SPRINKLES LATE SAT AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. POCKETS OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/FOG ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS.

SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS
OVER OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. FARTHER NORTH
THE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST BUT AT LIGHTER SPEEDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...PERSISTANT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THOSE WATERS. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
TURN NORTH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSIDING SWELL SUN MORNING...PROBABLY JUST UNDER 5 FEET...OVER THE
OUTER S AND SE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AREAS OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IN FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KGYX 032224
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
624 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
625 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLEAR SKIES
WILL BE THE RULE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

PREVIOUSLY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
ALSO A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM OF SYSTEMS. WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THE MOUNTAINS
OF ME/NH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

REGARDING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH KEEPING A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF NH AND ME WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ALL
CONSIDERATION...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TIMING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS. EVEN THE WETTER AND FURTHEST NORTH GFS MODEL
HAS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS WERE ALL
CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO A BLENDED
SOLUTION SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRENGTHENING OF THE 500 MB WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THRU NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHRA OR A TSRA MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT
COULD COULD SEE SOME POP UP ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLYS
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SWIGS THRU AND NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START TO DRY AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT. MON INTO MOST OF TUE LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING MOVES THRU
WITH RH RISING ON MONDAY...AND TDS CREEPING INTO THE LOW 60S BY
TUE /AND MAYBE MID-UPPR 60S BY MID WEEK/. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE IN NH. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WED AND
WED NIGHT AS 500 MB PASSES N AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. THE 12Z EURO WANTS HANG UP THE FRONT TO OUR S AS A WAVE
TRACKS ALONG IT...WHICH WOULD MEAN CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU
TOO...BUT THIS IS TOO FINE A POINT TO HOOK ONTO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON LOWERING CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN THRU TUE...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE
SUN AND MON NIGHT.  WED COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER GUSTS AROUND 20 KT SUBSIDE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN THRU WED. WILL
SEE A SURGE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...WHICH
WILL BRINGS WIND TO NEAR SCA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 032224
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
624 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
625 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLEAR SKIES
WILL BE THE RULE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

PREVIOUSLY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
ALSO A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM OF SYSTEMS. WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THE MOUNTAINS
OF ME/NH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

REGARDING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH KEEPING A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF NH AND ME WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ALL
CONSIDERATION...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TIMING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS. EVEN THE WETTER AND FURTHEST NORTH GFS MODEL
HAS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS WERE ALL
CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO A BLENDED
SOLUTION SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRENGTHENING OF THE 500 MB WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THRU NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHRA OR A TSRA MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT
COULD COULD SEE SOME POP UP ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLYS
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SWIGS THRU AND NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START TO DRY AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT. MON INTO MOST OF TUE LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING MOVES THRU
WITH RH RISING ON MONDAY...AND TDS CREEPING INTO THE LOW 60S BY
TUE /AND MAYBE MID-UPPR 60S BY MID WEEK/. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE IN NH. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WED AND
WED NIGHT AS 500 MB PASSES N AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. THE 12Z EURO WANTS HANG UP THE FRONT TO OUR S AS A WAVE
TRACKS ALONG IT...WHICH WOULD MEAN CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU
TOO...BUT THIS IS TOO FINE A POINT TO HOOK ONTO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON LOWERING CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN THRU TUE...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE
SUN AND MON NIGHT.  WED COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER GUSTS AROUND 20 KT SUBSIDE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN THRU WED. WILL
SEE A SURGE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...WHICH
WILL BRINGS WIND TO NEAR SCA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 032224
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
624 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
625 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLEAR SKIES
WILL BE THE RULE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

PREVIOUSLY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
ALSO A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM OF SYSTEMS. WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THE MOUNTAINS
OF ME/NH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

REGARDING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH KEEPING A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF NH AND ME WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ALL
CONSIDERATION...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TIMING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS. EVEN THE WETTER AND FURTHEST NORTH GFS MODEL
HAS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS WERE ALL
CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO A BLENDED
SOLUTION SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRENGTHENING OF THE 500 MB WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THRU NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHRA OR A TSRA MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT
COULD COULD SEE SOME POP UP ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLYS
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SWIGS THRU AND NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START TO DRY AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT. MON INTO MOST OF TUE LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING MOVES THRU
WITH RH RISING ON MONDAY...AND TDS CREEPING INTO THE LOW 60S BY
TUE /AND MAYBE MID-UPPR 60S BY MID WEEK/. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE IN NH. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WED AND
WED NIGHT AS 500 MB PASSES N AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. THE 12Z EURO WANTS HANG UP THE FRONT TO OUR S AS A WAVE
TRACKS ALONG IT...WHICH WOULD MEAN CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU
TOO...BUT THIS IS TOO FINE A POINT TO HOOK ONTO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON LOWERING CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN THRU TUE...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE
SUN AND MON NIGHT.  WED COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER GUSTS AROUND 20 KT SUBSIDE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN THRU WED. WILL
SEE A SURGE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...WHICH
WILL BRINGS WIND TO NEAR SCA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 032224
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
624 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
625 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLEAR SKIES
WILL BE THE RULE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

PREVIOUSLY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
ALSO A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM OF SYSTEMS. WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THE MOUNTAINS
OF ME/NH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

REGARDING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH KEEPING A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF NH AND ME WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ALL
CONSIDERATION...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TIMING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS. EVEN THE WETTER AND FURTHEST NORTH GFS MODEL
HAS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS WERE ALL
CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO A BLENDED
SOLUTION SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRENGTHENING OF THE 500 MB WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THRU NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHRA OR A TSRA MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT
COULD COULD SEE SOME POP UP ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLYS
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SWIGS THRU AND NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START TO DRY AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT. MON INTO MOST OF TUE LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING MOVES THRU
WITH RH RISING ON MONDAY...AND TDS CREEPING INTO THE LOW 60S BY
TUE /AND MAYBE MID-UPPR 60S BY MID WEEK/. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE IN NH. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WED AND
WED NIGHT AS 500 MB PASSES N AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. THE 12Z EURO WANTS HANG UP THE FRONT TO OUR S AS A WAVE
TRACKS ALONG IT...WHICH WOULD MEAN CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU
TOO...BUT THIS IS TOO FINE A POINT TO HOOK ONTO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON LOWERING CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN THRU TUE...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE
SUN AND MON NIGHT.  WED COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER GUSTS AROUND 20 KT SUBSIDE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN THRU WED. WILL
SEE A SURGE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...WHICH
WILL BRINGS WIND TO NEAR SCA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE



000
FXUS61 KBOX 032130
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
530 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON JULY 4TH
AND MAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTH COASTAL AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
ON TUESDAY AND COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 8 PM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
SHOULD PROVIDE A FINE EVENING FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF INCREASING
CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET. SATELLITE SHOWS THESE HIGH CLOUDS
OVER SOUTHWEST PA MOVING NORTHEAST...WITH A TREND TO REACH OUR
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH GUIDENCE.

FAIR SKIES THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL OFF QUICKLY.
MEANWHILE DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S EVERYWHERE. THIS
POINTS TO MIN SFC TEMPS IN THE 50S AND AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
INDEPENDENCE DAY...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RACES SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE

MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND THE PAST 24 HOURS
REGARDING THE HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW THAT PASSES SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS
ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE NAM AND GGEM CLIP CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. THE ECMWF COMPROMISES WITH PCPN ACROSS RI AND SE MASS. WE
FAVORED THE ECMWF PLACEMENT IN SETTING UP OUR POPS...LIKELY POPS
ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST...CHANCE POPS IN SE MASS/RI/NE
CT...SLIGHT CHANCE NE MASS AND NCENTRAL MASS. CONVECTION FROM NEW
YORK MAY CROSS INTO WESTERN MASS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN WESTERN MASS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE COASTAL LOW CROSSES 40N/70W IN THE EVENING AND MOVES SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANY PCPN TO AN END
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF US BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING A CLEARING TREND
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP AREA DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
   THROUGH MONDAY.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
   LINGERING INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW...AS ONE WOULD EXPECT IN JULY...ANY ROBUST SHORT WAVES PASS
NORTH OF REGION WITH HEIGHTS RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY ZONAL BUT WITH A TENDENCY
FOR WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MAIN ISSUES INCLUDE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...OFTEN MORE PROBLEMATIC IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW...AND WHETHER OR NOT WEAK SURFACE WAVES MAY FORM ALONG
PASSING COLD FRONTS.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH KEEPING THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WITH POSSIBLY MODEST INSTABILITY BURST ALOFT
PER K INDEX SIGNATURE MOVES THROUGH REGION. AIR MASS MOISTENS
WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ON THE GFS. THINKING CHANCE
POPS NW TWO THIRDS OF AREA WHERE A HINT OF A LITTLE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND SLIGHT CHANCE MOST OF SE THIRD. BELIEVE LESS
CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT MAY SEE A FEW
AIR MASS TSTMS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN NW MA.
WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IN TURN LEADS TO SOME ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES FOR WED. EVEN THE FASTER
GFS...HOWEVER...DEPICTS SOME LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS ON WED. MAY SEE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS THAT MOVE
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR
SUGGESTS FOR NOW THAT CONVECTION WILL NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED.
THURSDAY...A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THU GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES. ECMWF DEVELOPS WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND HOLDS RAFL
BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH POPS IN THE UPPER END OF THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THU...REFLECTING THE RELATIVELY HIGH
UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY...HAVE GONE WITH CONTINUITY OF DRY WEATHER FOR FRI BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES A PASSING
SHORT WAVE TROF AND DEVELOPS STILL ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WAS NOT REFLECTED IN THE 00Z VERSION.
IF THE LATEST ECMWF RUN WERE TAKEN LITERALLY...IT WOULD HAVE A
SOAKING RAIN SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND SE MA FOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IN CONTRAST KEEPS ANY FRONTAL
WAVE ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY A FEW ENSEMBLE
RUNS SUGGESTING ANYTHING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST THE FRI FORECAST AS WE DRAW CLOSER AND GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WE
ARE MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CONDITIONS AT BOSTON TOWARD
EVENING DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THAT TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MASS/RI SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF
RAIN/FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLOUD BASES LIFTING/CLEARING
OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. POCKETS OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/FOG ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS.

SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS
OVER OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. FARTHER NORTH
THE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST BUT AT LIGHTER SPEEDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...PERSISTANT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THOSE WATERS. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
TURN NORTH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSIDING SWELL SUN MORNING...PROBABLY JUST UNDER 5 FEET...OVER THE
OUTER S AND SE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AREAS OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IN FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KBOX 032130
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
530 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON JULY 4TH
AND MAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTH COASTAL AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
ON TUESDAY AND COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 8 PM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
SHOULD PROVIDE A FINE EVENING FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF INCREASING
CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET. SATELLITE SHOWS THESE HIGH CLOUDS
OVER SOUTHWEST PA MOVING NORTHEAST...WITH A TREND TO REACH OUR
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH GUIDENCE.

FAIR SKIES THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL OFF QUICKLY.
MEANWHILE DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S EVERYWHERE. THIS
POINTS TO MIN SFC TEMPS IN THE 50S AND AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
INDEPENDENCE DAY...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RACES SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE

MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND THE PAST 24 HOURS
REGARDING THE HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW THAT PASSES SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS
ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE NAM AND GGEM CLIP CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. THE ECMWF COMPROMISES WITH PCPN ACROSS RI AND SE MASS. WE
FAVORED THE ECMWF PLACEMENT IN SETTING UP OUR POPS...LIKELY POPS
ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST...CHANCE POPS IN SE MASS/RI/NE
CT...SLIGHT CHANCE NE MASS AND NCENTRAL MASS. CONVECTION FROM NEW
YORK MAY CROSS INTO WESTERN MASS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN WESTERN MASS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE COASTAL LOW CROSSES 40N/70W IN THE EVENING AND MOVES SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANY PCPN TO AN END
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF US BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING A CLEARING TREND
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP AREA DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
   THROUGH MONDAY.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
   LINGERING INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW...AS ONE WOULD EXPECT IN JULY...ANY ROBUST SHORT WAVES PASS
NORTH OF REGION WITH HEIGHTS RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY ZONAL BUT WITH A TENDENCY
FOR WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MAIN ISSUES INCLUDE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...OFTEN MORE PROBLEMATIC IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW...AND WHETHER OR NOT WEAK SURFACE WAVES MAY FORM ALONG
PASSING COLD FRONTS.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH KEEPING THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WITH POSSIBLY MODEST INSTABILITY BURST ALOFT
PER K INDEX SIGNATURE MOVES THROUGH REGION. AIR MASS MOISTENS
WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ON THE GFS. THINKING CHANCE
POPS NW TWO THIRDS OF AREA WHERE A HINT OF A LITTLE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND SLIGHT CHANCE MOST OF SE THIRD. BELIEVE LESS
CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT MAY SEE A FEW
AIR MASS TSTMS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN NW MA.
WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IN TURN LEADS TO SOME ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES FOR WED. EVEN THE FASTER
GFS...HOWEVER...DEPICTS SOME LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS ON WED. MAY SEE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS THAT MOVE
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR
SUGGESTS FOR NOW THAT CONVECTION WILL NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED.
THURSDAY...A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THU GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES. ECMWF DEVELOPS WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND HOLDS RAFL
BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH POPS IN THE UPPER END OF THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THU...REFLECTING THE RELATIVELY HIGH
UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY...HAVE GONE WITH CONTINUITY OF DRY WEATHER FOR FRI BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES A PASSING
SHORT WAVE TROF AND DEVELOPS STILL ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WAS NOT REFLECTED IN THE 00Z VERSION.
IF THE LATEST ECMWF RUN WERE TAKEN LITERALLY...IT WOULD HAVE A
SOAKING RAIN SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND SE MA FOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IN CONTRAST KEEPS ANY FRONTAL
WAVE ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY A FEW ENSEMBLE
RUNS SUGGESTING ANYTHING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST THE FRI FORECAST AS WE DRAW CLOSER AND GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WE
ARE MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CONDITIONS AT BOSTON TOWARD
EVENING DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THAT TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MASS/RI SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF
RAIN/FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLOUD BASES LIFTING/CLEARING
OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. POCKETS OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/FOG ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS.

SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS
OVER OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. FARTHER NORTH
THE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST BUT AT LIGHTER SPEEDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...PERSISTANT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THOSE WATERS. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
TURN NORTH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSIDING SWELL SUN MORNING...PROBABLY JUST UNDER 5 FEET...OVER THE
OUTER S AND SE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AREAS OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IN FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KBOX 032130
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
530 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON JULY 4TH
AND MAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTH COASTAL AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
ON TUESDAY AND COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 8 PM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
SHOULD PROVIDE A FINE EVENING FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF INCREASING
CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET. SATELLITE SHOWS THESE HIGH CLOUDS
OVER SOUTHWEST PA MOVING NORTHEAST...WITH A TREND TO REACH OUR
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH GUIDENCE.

FAIR SKIES THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL OFF QUICKLY.
MEANWHILE DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S EVERYWHERE. THIS
POINTS TO MIN SFC TEMPS IN THE 50S AND AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
INDEPENDENCE DAY...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RACES SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE

MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND THE PAST 24 HOURS
REGARDING THE HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW THAT PASSES SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS
ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE NAM AND GGEM CLIP CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. THE ECMWF COMPROMISES WITH PCPN ACROSS RI AND SE MASS. WE
FAVORED THE ECMWF PLACEMENT IN SETTING UP OUR POPS...LIKELY POPS
ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST...CHANCE POPS IN SE MASS/RI/NE
CT...SLIGHT CHANCE NE MASS AND NCENTRAL MASS. CONVECTION FROM NEW
YORK MAY CROSS INTO WESTERN MASS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN WESTERN MASS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE COASTAL LOW CROSSES 40N/70W IN THE EVENING AND MOVES SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANY PCPN TO AN END
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF US BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING A CLEARING TREND
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP AREA DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
   THROUGH MONDAY.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
   LINGERING INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW...AS ONE WOULD EXPECT IN JULY...ANY ROBUST SHORT WAVES PASS
NORTH OF REGION WITH HEIGHTS RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY ZONAL BUT WITH A TENDENCY
FOR WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MAIN ISSUES INCLUDE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...OFTEN MORE PROBLEMATIC IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW...AND WHETHER OR NOT WEAK SURFACE WAVES MAY FORM ALONG
PASSING COLD FRONTS.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH KEEPING THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WITH POSSIBLY MODEST INSTABILITY BURST ALOFT
PER K INDEX SIGNATURE MOVES THROUGH REGION. AIR MASS MOISTENS
WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ON THE GFS. THINKING CHANCE
POPS NW TWO THIRDS OF AREA WHERE A HINT OF A LITTLE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND SLIGHT CHANCE MOST OF SE THIRD. BELIEVE LESS
CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT MAY SEE A FEW
AIR MASS TSTMS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN NW MA.
WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IN TURN LEADS TO SOME ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES FOR WED. EVEN THE FASTER
GFS...HOWEVER...DEPICTS SOME LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS ON WED. MAY SEE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS THAT MOVE
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR
SUGGESTS FOR NOW THAT CONVECTION WILL NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED.
THURSDAY...A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THU GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES. ECMWF DEVELOPS WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND HOLDS RAFL
BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH POPS IN THE UPPER END OF THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THU...REFLECTING THE RELATIVELY HIGH
UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY...HAVE GONE WITH CONTINUITY OF DRY WEATHER FOR FRI BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES A PASSING
SHORT WAVE TROF AND DEVELOPS STILL ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WAS NOT REFLECTED IN THE 00Z VERSION.
IF THE LATEST ECMWF RUN WERE TAKEN LITERALLY...IT WOULD HAVE A
SOAKING RAIN SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND SE MA FOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IN CONTRAST KEEPS ANY FRONTAL
WAVE ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY A FEW ENSEMBLE
RUNS SUGGESTING ANYTHING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST THE FRI FORECAST AS WE DRAW CLOSER AND GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WE
ARE MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CONDITIONS AT BOSTON TOWARD
EVENING DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THAT TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MASS/RI SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF
RAIN/FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLOUD BASES LIFTING/CLEARING
OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. POCKETS OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/FOG ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS.

SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS
OVER OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. FARTHER NORTH
THE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST BUT AT LIGHTER SPEEDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...PERSISTANT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THOSE WATERS. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
TURN NORTH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSIDING SWELL SUN MORNING...PROBABLY JUST UNDER 5 FEET...OVER THE
OUTER S AND SE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AREAS OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IN FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KBOX 032130
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
530 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON JULY 4TH
AND MAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTH COASTAL AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
ON TUESDAY AND COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 8 PM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
SHOULD PROVIDE A FINE EVENING FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF INCREASING
CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET. SATELLITE SHOWS THESE HIGH CLOUDS
OVER SOUTHWEST PA MOVING NORTHEAST...WITH A TREND TO REACH OUR
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH GUIDENCE.

FAIR SKIES THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL OFF QUICKLY.
MEANWHILE DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S EVERYWHERE. THIS
POINTS TO MIN SFC TEMPS IN THE 50S AND AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
INDEPENDENCE DAY...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RACES SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE

MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND THE PAST 24 HOURS
REGARDING THE HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW THAT PASSES SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS
ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE NAM AND GGEM CLIP CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. THE ECMWF COMPROMISES WITH PCPN ACROSS RI AND SE MASS. WE
FAVORED THE ECMWF PLACEMENT IN SETTING UP OUR POPS...LIKELY POPS
ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST...CHANCE POPS IN SE MASS/RI/NE
CT...SLIGHT CHANCE NE MASS AND NCENTRAL MASS. CONVECTION FROM NEW
YORK MAY CROSS INTO WESTERN MASS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN WESTERN MASS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE COASTAL LOW CROSSES 40N/70W IN THE EVENING AND MOVES SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANY PCPN TO AN END
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF US BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING A CLEARING TREND
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP AREA DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
   THROUGH MONDAY.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
   LINGERING INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW...AS ONE WOULD EXPECT IN JULY...ANY ROBUST SHORT WAVES PASS
NORTH OF REGION WITH HEIGHTS RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY ZONAL BUT WITH A TENDENCY
FOR WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MAIN ISSUES INCLUDE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...OFTEN MORE PROBLEMATIC IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW...AND WHETHER OR NOT WEAK SURFACE WAVES MAY FORM ALONG
PASSING COLD FRONTS.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH KEEPING THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WITH POSSIBLY MODEST INSTABILITY BURST ALOFT
PER K INDEX SIGNATURE MOVES THROUGH REGION. AIR MASS MOISTENS
WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ON THE GFS. THINKING CHANCE
POPS NW TWO THIRDS OF AREA WHERE A HINT OF A LITTLE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND SLIGHT CHANCE MOST OF SE THIRD. BELIEVE LESS
CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT MAY SEE A FEW
AIR MASS TSTMS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN NW MA.
WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IN TURN LEADS TO SOME ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES FOR WED. EVEN THE FASTER
GFS...HOWEVER...DEPICTS SOME LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS ON WED. MAY SEE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS THAT MOVE
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR
SUGGESTS FOR NOW THAT CONVECTION WILL NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED.
THURSDAY...A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THU GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES. ECMWF DEVELOPS WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND HOLDS RAFL
BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH POPS IN THE UPPER END OF THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THU...REFLECTING THE RELATIVELY HIGH
UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY...HAVE GONE WITH CONTINUITY OF DRY WEATHER FOR FRI BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES A PASSING
SHORT WAVE TROF AND DEVELOPS STILL ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WAS NOT REFLECTED IN THE 00Z VERSION.
IF THE LATEST ECMWF RUN WERE TAKEN LITERALLY...IT WOULD HAVE A
SOAKING RAIN SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND SE MA FOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IN CONTRAST KEEPS ANY FRONTAL
WAVE ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY A FEW ENSEMBLE
RUNS SUGGESTING ANYTHING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST THE FRI FORECAST AS WE DRAW CLOSER AND GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WE
ARE MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CONDITIONS AT BOSTON TOWARD
EVENING DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THAT TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MASS/RI SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF
RAIN/FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLOUD BASES LIFTING/CLEARING
OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. POCKETS OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/FOG ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS.

SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS
OVER OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. FARTHER NORTH
THE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST BUT AT LIGHTER SPEEDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...PERSISTANT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THOSE WATERS. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
TURN NORTH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSIDING SWELL SUN MORNING...PROBABLY JUST UNDER 5 FEET...OVER THE
OUTER S AND SE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AREAS OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IN FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KBOX 032130
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
530 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON JULY 4TH
AND MAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTH COASTAL AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
ON TUESDAY AND COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 8 PM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
SHOULD PROVIDE A FINE EVENING FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF INCREASING
CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET. SATELLITE SHOWS THESE HIGH CLOUDS
OVER SOUTHWEST PA MOVING NORTHEAST...WITH A TREND TO REACH OUR
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH GUIDENCE.

FAIR SKIES THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL OFF QUICKLY.
MEANWHILE DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S EVERYWHERE. THIS
POINTS TO MIN SFC TEMPS IN THE 50S AND AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
INDEPENDENCE DAY...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RACES SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE

MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND THE PAST 24 HOURS
REGARDING THE HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW THAT PASSES SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS
ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE NAM AND GGEM CLIP CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. THE ECMWF COMPROMISES WITH PCPN ACROSS RI AND SE MASS. WE
FAVORED THE ECMWF PLACEMENT IN SETTING UP OUR POPS...LIKELY POPS
ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST...CHANCE POPS IN SE MASS/RI/NE
CT...SLIGHT CHANCE NE MASS AND NCENTRAL MASS. CONVECTION FROM NEW
YORK MAY CROSS INTO WESTERN MASS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN WESTERN MASS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE COASTAL LOW CROSSES 40N/70W IN THE EVENING AND MOVES SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANY PCPN TO AN END
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF US BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING A CLEARING TREND
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP AREA DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
   THROUGH MONDAY.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
   LINGERING INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW...AS ONE WOULD EXPECT IN JULY...ANY ROBUST SHORT WAVES PASS
NORTH OF REGION WITH HEIGHTS RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY ZONAL BUT WITH A TENDENCY
FOR WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MAIN ISSUES INCLUDE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...OFTEN MORE PROBLEMATIC IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW...AND WHETHER OR NOT WEAK SURFACE WAVES MAY FORM ALONG
PASSING COLD FRONTS.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH KEEPING THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WITH POSSIBLY MODEST INSTABILITY BURST ALOFT
PER K INDEX SIGNATURE MOVES THROUGH REGION. AIR MASS MOISTENS
WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ON THE GFS. THINKING CHANCE
POPS NW TWO THIRDS OF AREA WHERE A HINT OF A LITTLE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND SLIGHT CHANCE MOST OF SE THIRD. BELIEVE LESS
CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT MAY SEE A FEW
AIR MASS TSTMS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN NW MA.
WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IN TURN LEADS TO SOME ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES FOR WED. EVEN THE FASTER
GFS...HOWEVER...DEPICTS SOME LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS ON WED. MAY SEE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS THAT MOVE
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR
SUGGESTS FOR NOW THAT CONVECTION WILL NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED.
THURSDAY...A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THU GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES. ECMWF DEVELOPS WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND HOLDS RAFL
BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH POPS IN THE UPPER END OF THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THU...REFLECTING THE RELATIVELY HIGH
UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY...HAVE GONE WITH CONTINUITY OF DRY WEATHER FOR FRI BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES A PASSING
SHORT WAVE TROF AND DEVELOPS STILL ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WAS NOT REFLECTED IN THE 00Z VERSION.
IF THE LATEST ECMWF RUN WERE TAKEN LITERALLY...IT WOULD HAVE A
SOAKING RAIN SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND SE MA FOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IN CONTRAST KEEPS ANY FRONTAL
WAVE ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY A FEW ENSEMBLE
RUNS SUGGESTING ANYTHING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST THE FRI FORECAST AS WE DRAW CLOSER AND GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WE
ARE MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CONDITIONS AT BOSTON TOWARD
EVENING DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THAT TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MASS/RI SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF
RAIN/FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLOUD BASES LIFTING/CLEARING
OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. POCKETS OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/FOG ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS.

SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS
OVER OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. FARTHER NORTH
THE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST BUT AT LIGHTER SPEEDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...PERSISTANT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THOSE WATERS. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
TURN NORTH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSIDING SWELL SUN MORNING...PROBABLY JUST UNDER 5 FEET...OVER THE
OUTER S AND SE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AREAS OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IN FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 032011
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
411 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON JULY 4TH
AND MAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTH COASTAL AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
ON TUESDAY AND COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 8 PM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
SHOULD PROVIDE A FINE EVENING FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF INCREASING
CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET. SATELLITE SHOWS THESE HIGH CLOUDS
OVER SOUTHWEST PA MOVING NORTHEAST...WITH A TREND TO REACH OUR
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH GUIDENCE.

FAIR SKIES THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL OFF QUICKLY.
MEANWHILE DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S EVERYWHERE. THIS
POINTS TO MIN SFC TEMPS IN THE 50S AND AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
INDEPENDENCE DAY...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RACES SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE

MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND THE PAST 24 HOURS
REGARDING THE HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW THAT PASSES SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS
ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE NAM AND GGEM CLIP CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. THE ECMWF COMPROMISES WITH PCPN ACROSS RI AND SE MASS. WE
FAVORED THE ECMWF PLACEMENT IN SETTING UP OUR POPS...LIKELY POPS
ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST...CHANCE POPS IN SE MASS/RI/NE
CT...SLIGHT CHANCE NE MASS AND NCENTRAL MASS. CONVECTION FROM NEW
YORK MAY CROSS INTO WESTERN MASS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN WESTERN MASS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE COASTAL LOW CROSSES 40N/70W IN THE EVENING AND MOVES SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANY PCPN TO AN END
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF US BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING A CLEARING TREND
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP AREA DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
   THROUGH MONDAY.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
   LINGERING INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW...AS ONE WOULD EXPECT IN JULY...ANY ROBUST SHORT WAVES PASS NORTH OF REGION WITH HEIGHTS RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY ZONAL BUT WITH A TENDENCY FOR WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MAIN ISSUES INCLUDE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...OFTEN MORE PROBLEMATIC IN MORE ZONAL FLOW...AND WHETHER OR NOT WEAK SURFACE WAVES MAY FORM ALONG PASSING COLD FRONTS.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH KEEPING THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WITH POSSIBLY MODEST INSTABILITY BURST ALOFT
PER K INDEX SIGNATURE MOVES THROUGH REGION. AIR MASS MOISTENS
WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ON THE GFS. THINKING CHANCE
POPS NW TWO THIRDS OF AREA WHERE A HINT OF A LITTLE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND SLIGHT CHANCE MOST OF SE THIRD. BELIEVE LESS
CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT MAY SEE A FEW
AIR MASS TSTMS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN NW MA.
WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IN TURN LEADS TO SOME ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES FOR WED. EVEN THE FASTER
GFS...HOWEVER...DEPICTS SOME LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS ON WED. MAY SEE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS THAT MOVE
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR
SUGGESTS FOR NOW THAT CONVECTION WILL NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED.
THURSDAY...A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THU GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES. ECMWF DEVELOPS WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND HOLDS RAFL
BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH POPS IN THE UPPER END OF THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THU...REFLECTING THE RELATIVELY HIGH
UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY...HAVE GONE WITH CONTINUITY OF DRY WEATHER FOR FRI BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES A PASSING
SHORT WAVE TROF AND DEVELOPS STILL ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WAS NOT REFLECTED IN THE 00Z VERSION.
IF THE LATEST ECMWF RUN WERE TAKEN LITERALLY...IT WOULD HAVE A
SOAKING RAIN SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND SE MA FOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IN CONTRAST KEEPS ANY FRONTAL
WAVE ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY A FEW ENSEMBLE
RUNS SUGGESTING ANYTHING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST THE FRI FORECAST AS WE DRAW CLOSER AND GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WE
ARE MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CONDITIONS AT BOSTON TOWARD
EVENING DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THAT TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MASS/RI SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF
RAIN/FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLOUD BASES LIFTING/CLEARING
OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. POCKETS OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/FOG ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS.

SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS
OVER OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. FARTHER NORTH
THE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST BUT AT LIGHTER SPEEDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...PERSISTANT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THOSE WATERS. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
TURN NORTH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSIDING SWELL SUN MORNING...PROBABLY JUST UNDER 5 FEET...OVER THE
OUTER S AND SE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AREAS OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IN FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KBOX 032011
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
411 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON JULY 4TH
AND MAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTH COASTAL AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
ON TUESDAY AND COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 8 PM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
SHOULD PROVIDE A FINE EVENING FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF INCREASING
CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET. SATELLITE SHOWS THESE HIGH CLOUDS
OVER SOUTHWEST PA MOVING NORTHEAST...WITH A TREND TO REACH OUR
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH GUIDENCE.

FAIR SKIES THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL OFF QUICKLY.
MEANWHILE DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S EVERYWHERE. THIS
POINTS TO MIN SFC TEMPS IN THE 50S AND AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
INDEPENDENCE DAY...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RACES SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE

MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND THE PAST 24 HOURS
REGARDING THE HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW THAT PASSES SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS
ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE NAM AND GGEM CLIP CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. THE ECMWF COMPROMISES WITH PCPN ACROSS RI AND SE MASS. WE
FAVORED THE ECMWF PLACEMENT IN SETTING UP OUR POPS...LIKELY POPS
ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST...CHANCE POPS IN SE MASS/RI/NE
CT...SLIGHT CHANCE NE MASS AND NCENTRAL MASS. CONVECTION FROM NEW
YORK MAY CROSS INTO WESTERN MASS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN WESTERN MASS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE COASTAL LOW CROSSES 40N/70W IN THE EVENING AND MOVES SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANY PCPN TO AN END
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF US BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING A CLEARING TREND
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP AREA DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
   THROUGH MONDAY.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
   LINGERING INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW...AS ONE WOULD EXPECT IN JULY...ANY ROBUST SHORT WAVES PASS NORTH OF REGION WITH HEIGHTS RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY ZONAL BUT WITH A TENDENCY FOR WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MAIN ISSUES INCLUDE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...OFTEN MORE PROBLEMATIC IN MORE ZONAL FLOW...AND WHETHER OR NOT WEAK SURFACE WAVES MAY FORM ALONG PASSING COLD FRONTS.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH KEEPING THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WITH POSSIBLY MODEST INSTABILITY BURST ALOFT
PER K INDEX SIGNATURE MOVES THROUGH REGION. AIR MASS MOISTENS
WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ON THE GFS. THINKING CHANCE
POPS NW TWO THIRDS OF AREA WHERE A HINT OF A LITTLE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND SLIGHT CHANCE MOST OF SE THIRD. BELIEVE LESS
CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT MAY SEE A FEW
AIR MASS TSTMS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN NW MA.
WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IN TURN LEADS TO SOME ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES FOR WED. EVEN THE FASTER
GFS...HOWEVER...DEPICTS SOME LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS ON WED. MAY SEE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS THAT MOVE
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR
SUGGESTS FOR NOW THAT CONVECTION WILL NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED.
THURSDAY...A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THU GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES. ECMWF DEVELOPS WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND HOLDS RAFL
BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH POPS IN THE UPPER END OF THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THU...REFLECTING THE RELATIVELY HIGH
UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY...HAVE GONE WITH CONTINUITY OF DRY WEATHER FOR FRI BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES A PASSING
SHORT WAVE TROF AND DEVELOPS STILL ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WAS NOT REFLECTED IN THE 00Z VERSION.
IF THE LATEST ECMWF RUN WERE TAKEN LITERALLY...IT WOULD HAVE A
SOAKING RAIN SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND SE MA FOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IN CONTRAST KEEPS ANY FRONTAL
WAVE ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY A FEW ENSEMBLE
RUNS SUGGESTING ANYTHING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST THE FRI FORECAST AS WE DRAW CLOSER AND GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WE
ARE MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CONDITIONS AT BOSTON TOWARD
EVENING DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THAT TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MASS/RI SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF
RAIN/FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLOUD BASES LIFTING/CLEARING
OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. POCKETS OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/FOG ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS.

SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS
OVER OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. FARTHER NORTH
THE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST BUT AT LIGHTER SPEEDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...PERSISTANT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THOSE WATERS. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
TURN NORTH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSIDING SWELL SUN MORNING...PROBABLY JUST UNDER 5 FEET...OVER THE
OUTER S AND SE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AREAS OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IN FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 031926
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
326 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON JULY 4TH
AND MAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTH COASTAL AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH EARLY WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH 8 PM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
SHOULD PROVIDE A FINE EVENING FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF INCREASING
CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET. SATELLITE SHOWS THESE HIGH CLOUDS
OVER SOUTHWEST PA MOVING NORTHEAST...WITH A TREND TO REACH OUR
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH GUIDENCE.

FAIR SKIES THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL OFF QUICKLY.
MEANWHILE DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S EVERYWHERE. THIS
POINTS TO MIN SFC TEMPS IN THE 50S AND AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

INDEPENDENCE DAY...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RACES SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE

MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND THE PAST 24 HOURS
REGARDING THE HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW THAT PASSES SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS
ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE NAM AND GGEM CLIP CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. THE ECMWF COMPROMISES WITH PCPN ACROSS RI AND SE MASS. WE
FAVORED THE ECMWF PLACEMENT IN SETTING UP OUR POPS...LIKELY POPS
ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST...CHANCE POPS IN SE MASS/RI/NE
CT...SLIGHT CHANCE NE MASS AND NCENTRAL MASS. CONVECTION FROM NEW
YORK MAY CROSS INTO WESTERN MASS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN WESTERN MASS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE COASTAL LOW CROSSES 40N/70W IN THE EVENING AND MOVES SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANY PCPN TO AN END
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF US BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING A CLEARING TREND
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL
GFS REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS OVERAMPLIFCATION CONTINUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS
WITH THIS LONG TERM UPDATE AND APPLYING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS
AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NE...AS DEEPENING CUTOFF ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE/DRY WX PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...IT IS A MATTER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CUTOFF.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE E SHIFT IN THE CUTOFF...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A LONGER UNSETTLED PERIOD. WHILE OTHERS ARE FURTHER
W...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF.  IN ANY CASE...COOLER AND MORE PERIODIC WET
WX IS POSSIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLY WEEK.

DETAILS...

SUN...A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSES ON SUN. OVERALL PWATS IN THE
COLUMN ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR WITH IN THE LOWEST 300HPA. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS LIKELY TO BE
MOST RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. H85 TEMPS NEAR +10C SUGGEST TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS ON SUN REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

MON INTO TUE...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING OVER FROM THE
W...COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT HIGH PRES AND DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THEE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY. H85 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +15C BY TUE.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S WILL BE FORECAST.

WED...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE STRONG
CUTOFF WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...COOLING H5 TEMPS AND LEFTOVER WARM/MOIST LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST DECREASING STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH THE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU AND FRI...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE UPPER CUTOFF GETS TO THE NE CONUS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
EXACTLY HOW MANY WAVE/HOW STRONG AND WHEN THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE TO
BE BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS AND BECOMES BETTER
SAMPLED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WE
ARE MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CONDITIONS AT BOSTON TOWARD
EVENING DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THAT TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MASS/RI SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF
RAIN/FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLOUD BASES LIFTING/CLEARING
OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MON INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS.

SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS
OVER OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. FARTHER NORTH
THE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST BUT AT LIGHTER SPEEDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...PERSISTANT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THOSE WATERS. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
TURN NORTH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS S AND SE OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
SLOWLY DECLINE FROM 5-7 FT TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY LINGER THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S...AND WHILE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KGYX 031903
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
303 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
ALSO A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM OF SYSTEMS. WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THE MOUNTAINS
OF ME/NH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

REGARDING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH KEEPING A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF NH AND ME WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ALL
CONSIDERATION...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TIMING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS. EVEN THE WETTER AND FURTHEST NORTH GFS MODEL
HAS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS WERE ALL
CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO A BLENDED
SOLUTION SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRENGTHENING OF THE 500 MB WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THRU NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHRA OR A TSRA MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT
COULD COULD SEE SOME POP UP ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLYS
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SWIGS THRU AND NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START TO DRY AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT. MON INTO MOST OF TUE LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING MOVES THRU
WITH RH RISING ON MONDAY...AND TDS CREEPING INTO THE LOW 60S BY
TUE /AND MAYBE MID-UPPR 60S BY MID WEEK/. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE IN NH. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WED AND
WED NIGHT AS 500 MB PASSES N AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. THE 12Z EURO WANTS HANG UP THE FRONT TO OUR S AS A WAVE
TRACKS ALONG IT...WHICH WOULD MEAN CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU
TOO...BUT THIS IS TOO FINE A POINT TO HOOK ONTO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON LOWERING CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN THRU TUE...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE
SUN AND MON NIGHT.  WED COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN THRU WED. WILL
SEE A SURGE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...WHICH
WILL BRINGS WIND TO NEAR SCA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE
LONG TERM...CEMPA



000
FXUS61 KGYX 031903
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
303 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
ALSO A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM OF SYSTEMS. WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THE MOUNTAINS
OF ME/NH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

REGARDING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH KEEPING A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF NH AND ME WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ALL
CONSIDERATION...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TIMING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS. EVEN THE WETTER AND FURTHEST NORTH GFS MODEL
HAS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS WERE ALL
CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO A BLENDED
SOLUTION SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRENGTHENING OF THE 500 MB WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THRU NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHRA OR A TSRA MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT
COULD COULD SEE SOME POP UP ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLYS
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SWIGS THRU AND NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START TO DRY AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT. MON INTO MOST OF TUE LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING MOVES THRU
WITH RH RISING ON MONDAY...AND TDS CREEPING INTO THE LOW 60S BY
TUE /AND MAYBE MID-UPPR 60S BY MID WEEK/. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE IN NH. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WED AND
WED NIGHT AS 500 MB PASSES N AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. THE 12Z EURO WANTS HANG UP THE FRONT TO OUR S AS A WAVE
TRACKS ALONG IT...WHICH WOULD MEAN CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU
TOO...BUT THIS IS TOO FINE A POINT TO HOOK ONTO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON LOWERING CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN THRU TUE...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE
SUN AND MON NIGHT.  WED COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN THRU WED. WILL
SEE A SURGE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...WHICH
WILL BRINGS WIND TO NEAR SCA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE
LONG TERM...CEMPA



000
FXUS61 KGYX 031903
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
303 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
ALSO A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM OF SYSTEMS. WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THE MOUNTAINS
OF ME/NH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

REGARDING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH KEEPING A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF NH AND ME WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ALL
CONSIDERATION...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TIMING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS. EVEN THE WETTER AND FURTHEST NORTH GFS MODEL
HAS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS WERE ALL
CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO A BLENDED
SOLUTION SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRENGTHENING OF THE 500 MB WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THRU NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHRA OR A TSRA MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT
COULD COULD SEE SOME POP UP ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLYS
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SWIGS THRU AND NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START TO DRY AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT. MON INTO MOST OF TUE LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING MOVES THRU
WITH RH RISING ON MONDAY...AND TDS CREEPING INTO THE LOW 60S BY
TUE /AND MAYBE MID-UPPR 60S BY MID WEEK/. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE IN NH. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WED AND
WED NIGHT AS 500 MB PASSES N AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. THE 12Z EURO WANTS HANG UP THE FRONT TO OUR S AS A WAVE
TRACKS ALONG IT...WHICH WOULD MEAN CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU
TOO...BUT THIS IS TOO FINE A POINT TO HOOK ONTO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON LOWERING CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN THRU TUE...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE
SUN AND MON NIGHT.  WED COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN THRU WED. WILL
SEE A SURGE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...WHICH
WILL BRINGS WIND TO NEAR SCA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE
LONG TERM...CEMPA



000
FXUS61 KGYX 031903
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
303 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
ALSO A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM OF SYSTEMS. WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THE MOUNTAINS
OF ME/NH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

REGARDING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH KEEPING A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF NH AND ME WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ALL
CONSIDERATION...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TIMING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS. EVEN THE WETTER AND FURTHEST NORTH GFS MODEL
HAS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS WERE ALL
CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO A BLENDED
SOLUTION SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRENGTHENING OF THE 500 MB WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THRU NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHRA OR A TSRA MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT
COULD COULD SEE SOME POP UP ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLYS
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SWIGS THRU AND NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START TO DRY AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT. MON INTO MOST OF TUE LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING MOVES THRU
WITH RH RISING ON MONDAY...AND TDS CREEPING INTO THE LOW 60S BY
TUE /AND MAYBE MID-UPPR 60S BY MID WEEK/. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE IN NH. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WED AND
WED NIGHT AS 500 MB PASSES N AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. THE 12Z EURO WANTS HANG UP THE FRONT TO OUR S AS A WAVE
TRACKS ALONG IT...WHICH WOULD MEAN CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU
TOO...BUT THIS IS TOO FINE A POINT TO HOOK ONTO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON LOWERING CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN THRU TUE...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE
SUN AND MON NIGHT.  WED COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN THRU WED. WILL
SEE A SURGE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...WHICH
WILL BRINGS WIND TO NEAR SCA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE
LONG TERM...CEMPA



000
FXUS61 KGYX 031903
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
303 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
ALSO A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM OF SYSTEMS. WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THE MOUNTAINS
OF ME/NH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

REGARDING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH KEEPING A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF NH AND ME WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ALL
CONSIDERATION...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TIMING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS. EVEN THE WETTER AND FURTHEST NORTH GFS MODEL
HAS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS WERE ALL
CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO A BLENDED
SOLUTION SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRENGTHENING OF THE 500 MB WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THRU NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHRA OR A TSRA MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT
COULD COULD SEE SOME POP UP ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLYS
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SWIGS THRU AND NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START TO DRY AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT. MON INTO MOST OF TUE LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING MOVES THRU
WITH RH RISING ON MONDAY...AND TDS CREEPING INTO THE LOW 60S BY
TUE /AND MAYBE MID-UPPR 60S BY MID WEEK/. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE IN NH. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WED AND
WED NIGHT AS 500 MB PASSES N AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. THE 12Z EURO WANTS HANG UP THE FRONT TO OUR S AS A WAVE
TRACKS ALONG IT...WHICH WOULD MEAN CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU
TOO...BUT THIS IS TOO FINE A POINT TO HOOK ONTO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON LOWERING CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN THRU TUE...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE
SUN AND MON NIGHT.  WED COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN THRU WED. WILL
SEE A SURGE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...WHICH
WILL BRINGS WIND TO NEAR SCA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE
LONG TERM...CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 031903
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
303 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
ALSO A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM OF SYSTEMS. WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THE MOUNTAINS
OF ME/NH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

REGARDING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH KEEPING A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF NH AND ME WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ALL
CONSIDERATION...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TIMING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS. EVEN THE WETTER AND FURTHEST NORTH GFS MODEL
HAS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS WERE ALL
CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO A BLENDED
SOLUTION SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRENGTHENING OF THE 500 MB WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THRU NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHRA OR A TSRA MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT
COULD COULD SEE SOME POP UP ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLYS
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SWIGS THRU AND NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START TO DRY AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT. MON INTO MOST OF TUE LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING MOVES THRU
WITH RH RISING ON MONDAY...AND TDS CREEPING INTO THE LOW 60S BY
TUE /AND MAYBE MID-UPPR 60S BY MID WEEK/. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE IN NH. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WED AND
WED NIGHT AS 500 MB PASSES N AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. THE 12Z EURO WANTS HANG UP THE FRONT TO OUR S AS A WAVE
TRACKS ALONG IT...WHICH WOULD MEAN CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU
TOO...BUT THIS IS TOO FINE A POINT TO HOOK ONTO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON LOWERING CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN THRU TUE...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE
SUN AND MON NIGHT.  WED COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN THRU WED. WILL
SEE A SURGE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...WHICH
WILL BRINGS WIND TO NEAR SCA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE
LONG TERM...CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 031903
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
303 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
ALSO A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM OF SYSTEMS. WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THE MOUNTAINS
OF ME/NH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

REGARDING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH KEEPING A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF NH AND ME WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ALL
CONSIDERATION...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TIMING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS. EVEN THE WETTER AND FURTHEST NORTH GFS MODEL
HAS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS WERE ALL
CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO A BLENDED
SOLUTION SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRENGTHENING OF THE 500 MB WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THRU NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHRA OR A TSRA MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT
COULD COULD SEE SOME POP UP ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLYS
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SWIGS THRU AND NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START TO DRY AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT. MON INTO MOST OF TUE LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING MOVES THRU
WITH RH RISING ON MONDAY...AND TDS CREEPING INTO THE LOW 60S BY
TUE /AND MAYBE MID-UPPR 60S BY MID WEEK/. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE IN NH. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WED AND
WED NIGHT AS 500 MB PASSES N AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. THE 12Z EURO WANTS HANG UP THE FRONT TO OUR S AS A WAVE
TRACKS ALONG IT...WHICH WOULD MEAN CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU
TOO...BUT THIS IS TOO FINE A POINT TO HOOK ONTO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON LOWERING CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN THRU TUE...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE
SUN AND MON NIGHT.  WED COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN THRU WED. WILL
SEE A SURGE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...WHICH
WILL BRINGS WIND TO NEAR SCA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE
LONG TERM...CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 031903
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
303 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
ALSO A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM OF SYSTEMS. WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THE MOUNTAINS
OF ME/NH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

REGARDING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH KEEPING A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF NH AND ME WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ALL
CONSIDERATION...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TIMING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS. EVEN THE WETTER AND FURTHEST NORTH GFS MODEL
HAS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS WERE ALL
CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO A BLENDED
SOLUTION SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRENGTHENING OF THE 500 MB WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THRU NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHRA OR A TSRA MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT
COULD COULD SEE SOME POP UP ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLYS
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SWIGS THRU AND NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START TO DRY AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT. MON INTO MOST OF TUE LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING MOVES THRU
WITH RH RISING ON MONDAY...AND TDS CREEPING INTO THE LOW 60S BY
TUE /AND MAYBE MID-UPPR 60S BY MID WEEK/. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE IN NH. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WED AND
WED NIGHT AS 500 MB PASSES N AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. THE 12Z EURO WANTS HANG UP THE FRONT TO OUR S AS A WAVE
TRACKS ALONG IT...WHICH WOULD MEAN CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU
TOO...BUT THIS IS TOO FINE A POINT TO HOOK ONTO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON LOWERING CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN THRU TUE...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE
SUN AND MON NIGHT.  WED COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN THRU WED. WILL
SEE A SURGE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...WHICH
WILL BRINGS WIND TO NEAR SCA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE
LONG TERM...CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 031736
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
136 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT
EAST BY SATURDAY. BIG CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE
DAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS WITH WARMING CONDITIONS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE. THAT
MEANS LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES.

MORNING BALLOON SOUNDINGS SHOWED EASY MIXING TO 850 MB...THEN AN
ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 800 MB. MID MORNING AMDAR
SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE MIXING HAD INDEED REACHED 850 MB AT THAT
TIME. TEMPS AT 850 MB WERE 7C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SFC TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SIMILAR TEMPS AT 800 MB WOULD BE EQUIVILENT TO 12C AT
850...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. WITH
PLENTY OF SUN WORKING ON THE AIRMASS WE WOULD EXPECT THE INVERSION
TO EVENTUALLY MIX OUT. CONTINUE TO FORECAST MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...EXCEPT COOLER COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WEATHER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER WAVE ALONG A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...
HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE CHARGE LEAD BY PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS...HAS BEEN TAKEN UP BY THE REST OF THE 03/00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED THE PROJECTED TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST...WITH THE
SLOWEST TIMING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...AS THE DETAILS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT MURKY.

DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SHIFT AMONG ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS...
DECIDED TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST WETTER...RATHER THAN GOING WITH
THE WASHOUT FROM PRIOR RUNS OF THE GFS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A
WINTER-TIME SETUP...WENT WITH RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERS. THAT
SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STAY TUNED FOR MORE POTENTIAL CHANGES
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL
GFS REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS OVERAMPLIFCATION CONTINUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS
WITH THIS LONG TERM UPDATE AND APPLYING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS
AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NE...AS DEEPENING CUTOFF ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE/DRY WX PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...IT IS A MATTER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CUTOFF.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE E SHIFT IN THE CUTOFF...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A LONGER UNSETTLED PERIOD. WHILE OTHERS ARE FURTHER
W...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF.  IN ANY CASE...COOLER AND MORE PERIODIC WET
WX IS POSSIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLY WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SFC FEATURES TO WATCH.
THE FIRST...SAT NIGHT IS AN OCEAN LOW PRES WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE
WHICH...COULD LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS. THE SECOND IS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN. IN EITHER CASE...OVERALL PWATS
IN THE COLUMN ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WITH IN THE LOWEST 300HPA. IN EITHER CASE...AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS LIKELY TO BE MOST RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. H85 TEMPS
NEAR +10C SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS ON SUN REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

MON INTO TUE...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING OVER FROM THE
W...COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT HIGH PRES AND DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THEE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY. H85 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +15C BY TUE.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S WILL BE FORECAST.

WED...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE STRONG
CUTOFF WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...COOLING H5 TEMPS AND LEFTOVER WARM/MOIST LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST DECREASING STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH THE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU AND FRI...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE UPPER CUTOFF GETS TO THE NE CONUS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
EXACTLY HOW MANY WAVE/HOW STRONG AND WHEN THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE TO
BE BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS AND BECOMES BETTER
SAMPLED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WE
ARE MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CONDITIONS AT BOSTON TOWARD
EVENING DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THAT TIME.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SE MA/RI
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END.  ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MON INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO NE AS LOW PRES MOVES E OF THE WATERS.  WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 20-25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEAS ON THE
WATERS S AND SE OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN TO DECLINE FROM 5-7 FT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S...AND WHILE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 031736
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
136 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT
EAST BY SATURDAY. BIG CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE
DAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS WITH WARMING CONDITIONS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE. THAT
MEANS LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES.

MORNING BALLOON SOUNDINGS SHOWED EASY MIXING TO 850 MB...THEN AN
ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 800 MB. MID MORNING AMDAR
SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE MIXING HAD INDEED REACHED 850 MB AT THAT
TIME. TEMPS AT 850 MB WERE 7C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SFC TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SIMILAR TEMPS AT 800 MB WOULD BE EQUIVILENT TO 12C AT
850...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. WITH
PLENTY OF SUN WORKING ON THE AIRMASS WE WOULD EXPECT THE INVERSION
TO EVENTUALLY MIX OUT. CONTINUE TO FORECAST MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...EXCEPT COOLER COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WEATHER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER WAVE ALONG A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...
HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE CHARGE LEAD BY PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS...HAS BEEN TAKEN UP BY THE REST OF THE 03/00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED THE PROJECTED TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST...WITH THE
SLOWEST TIMING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...AS THE DETAILS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT MURKY.

DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SHIFT AMONG ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS...
DECIDED TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST WETTER...RATHER THAN GOING WITH
THE WASHOUT FROM PRIOR RUNS OF THE GFS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A
WINTER-TIME SETUP...WENT WITH RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERS. THAT
SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STAY TUNED FOR MORE POTENTIAL CHANGES
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL
GFS REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS OVERAMPLIFCATION CONTINUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS
WITH THIS LONG TERM UPDATE AND APPLYING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS
AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NE...AS DEEPENING CUTOFF ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE/DRY WX PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...IT IS A MATTER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CUTOFF.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE E SHIFT IN THE CUTOFF...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A LONGER UNSETTLED PERIOD. WHILE OTHERS ARE FURTHER
W...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF.  IN ANY CASE...COOLER AND MORE PERIODIC WET
WX IS POSSIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLY WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SFC FEATURES TO WATCH.
THE FIRST...SAT NIGHT IS AN OCEAN LOW PRES WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE
WHICH...COULD LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS. THE SECOND IS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN. IN EITHER CASE...OVERALL PWATS
IN THE COLUMN ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WITH IN THE LOWEST 300HPA. IN EITHER CASE...AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS LIKELY TO BE MOST RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. H85 TEMPS
NEAR +10C SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS ON SUN REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

MON INTO TUE...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING OVER FROM THE
W...COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT HIGH PRES AND DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THEE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY. H85 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +15C BY TUE.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S WILL BE FORECAST.

WED...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE STRONG
CUTOFF WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...COOLING H5 TEMPS AND LEFTOVER WARM/MOIST LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST DECREASING STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH THE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU AND FRI...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE UPPER CUTOFF GETS TO THE NE CONUS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
EXACTLY HOW MANY WAVE/HOW STRONG AND WHEN THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE TO
BE BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS AND BECOMES BETTER
SAMPLED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WE
ARE MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CONDITIONS AT BOSTON TOWARD
EVENING DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THAT TIME.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SE MA/RI
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END.  ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MON INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO NE AS LOW PRES MOVES E OF THE WATERS.  WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 20-25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEAS ON THE
WATERS S AND SE OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN TO DECLINE FROM 5-7 FT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S...AND WHILE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 031736
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
136 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT
EAST BY SATURDAY. BIG CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE
DAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS WITH WARMING CONDITIONS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE. THAT
MEANS LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES.

MORNING BALLOON SOUNDINGS SHOWED EASY MIXING TO 850 MB...THEN AN
ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 800 MB. MID MORNING AMDAR
SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE MIXING HAD INDEED REACHED 850 MB AT THAT
TIME. TEMPS AT 850 MB WERE 7C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SFC TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SIMILAR TEMPS AT 800 MB WOULD BE EQUIVILENT TO 12C AT
850...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. WITH
PLENTY OF SUN WORKING ON THE AIRMASS WE WOULD EXPECT THE INVERSION
TO EVENTUALLY MIX OUT. CONTINUE TO FORECAST MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...EXCEPT COOLER COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WEATHER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER WAVE ALONG A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...
HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE CHARGE LEAD BY PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS...HAS BEEN TAKEN UP BY THE REST OF THE 03/00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED THE PROJECTED TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST...WITH THE
SLOWEST TIMING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...AS THE DETAILS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT MURKY.

DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SHIFT AMONG ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS...
DECIDED TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST WETTER...RATHER THAN GOING WITH
THE WASHOUT FROM PRIOR RUNS OF THE GFS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A
WINTER-TIME SETUP...WENT WITH RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERS. THAT
SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STAY TUNED FOR MORE POTENTIAL CHANGES
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL
GFS REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS OVERAMPLIFCATION CONTINUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS
WITH THIS LONG TERM UPDATE AND APPLYING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS
AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NE...AS DEEPENING CUTOFF ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE/DRY WX PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...IT IS A MATTER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CUTOFF.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE E SHIFT IN THE CUTOFF...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A LONGER UNSETTLED PERIOD. WHILE OTHERS ARE FURTHER
W...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF.  IN ANY CASE...COOLER AND MORE PERIODIC WET
WX IS POSSIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLY WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SFC FEATURES TO WATCH.
THE FIRST...SAT NIGHT IS AN OCEAN LOW PRES WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE
WHICH...COULD LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS. THE SECOND IS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN. IN EITHER CASE...OVERALL PWATS
IN THE COLUMN ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WITH IN THE LOWEST 300HPA. IN EITHER CASE...AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS LIKELY TO BE MOST RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. H85 TEMPS
NEAR +10C SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS ON SUN REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

MON INTO TUE...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING OVER FROM THE
W...COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT HIGH PRES AND DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THEE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY. H85 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +15C BY TUE.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S WILL BE FORECAST.

WED...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE STRONG
CUTOFF WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...COOLING H5 TEMPS AND LEFTOVER WARM/MOIST LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST DECREASING STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH THE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU AND FRI...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE UPPER CUTOFF GETS TO THE NE CONUS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
EXACTLY HOW MANY WAVE/HOW STRONG AND WHEN THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE TO
BE BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS AND BECOMES BETTER
SAMPLED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WE
ARE MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CONDITIONS AT BOSTON TOWARD
EVENING DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THAT TIME.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SE MA/RI
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END.  ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MON INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO NE AS LOW PRES MOVES E OF THE WATERS.  WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 20-25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEAS ON THE
WATERS S AND SE OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN TO DECLINE FROM 5-7 FT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S...AND WHILE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 031736
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
136 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT
EAST BY SATURDAY. BIG CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE
DAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS WITH WARMING CONDITIONS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE. THAT
MEANS LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES.

MORNING BALLOON SOUNDINGS SHOWED EASY MIXING TO 850 MB...THEN AN
ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 800 MB. MID MORNING AMDAR
SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE MIXING HAD INDEED REACHED 850 MB AT THAT
TIME. TEMPS AT 850 MB WERE 7C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SFC TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SIMILAR TEMPS AT 800 MB WOULD BE EQUIVILENT TO 12C AT
850...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. WITH
PLENTY OF SUN WORKING ON THE AIRMASS WE WOULD EXPECT THE INVERSION
TO EVENTUALLY MIX OUT. CONTINUE TO FORECAST MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...EXCEPT COOLER COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WEATHER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER WAVE ALONG A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...
HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE CHARGE LEAD BY PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS...HAS BEEN TAKEN UP BY THE REST OF THE 03/00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED THE PROJECTED TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST...WITH THE
SLOWEST TIMING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...AS THE DETAILS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT MURKY.

DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SHIFT AMONG ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS...
DECIDED TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST WETTER...RATHER THAN GOING WITH
THE WASHOUT FROM PRIOR RUNS OF THE GFS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A
WINTER-TIME SETUP...WENT WITH RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERS. THAT
SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STAY TUNED FOR MORE POTENTIAL CHANGES
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL
GFS REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS OVERAMPLIFCATION CONTINUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS
WITH THIS LONG TERM UPDATE AND APPLYING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS
AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NE...AS DEEPENING CUTOFF ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE/DRY WX PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...IT IS A MATTER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CUTOFF.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE E SHIFT IN THE CUTOFF...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A LONGER UNSETTLED PERIOD. WHILE OTHERS ARE FURTHER
W...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF.  IN ANY CASE...COOLER AND MORE PERIODIC WET
WX IS POSSIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLY WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SFC FEATURES TO WATCH.
THE FIRST...SAT NIGHT IS AN OCEAN LOW PRES WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE
WHICH...COULD LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS. THE SECOND IS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN. IN EITHER CASE...OVERALL PWATS
IN THE COLUMN ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WITH IN THE LOWEST 300HPA. IN EITHER CASE...AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS LIKELY TO BE MOST RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. H85 TEMPS
NEAR +10C SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS ON SUN REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

MON INTO TUE...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING OVER FROM THE
W...COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT HIGH PRES AND DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THEE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY. H85 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +15C BY TUE.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S WILL BE FORECAST.

WED...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE STRONG
CUTOFF WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...COOLING H5 TEMPS AND LEFTOVER WARM/MOIST LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST DECREASING STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH THE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU AND FRI...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE UPPER CUTOFF GETS TO THE NE CONUS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
EXACTLY HOW MANY WAVE/HOW STRONG AND WHEN THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE TO
BE BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS AND BECOMES BETTER
SAMPLED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WE
ARE MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CONDITIONS AT BOSTON TOWARD
EVENING DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THAT TIME.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SE MA/RI
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END.  ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MON INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO NE AS LOW PRES MOVES E OF THE WATERS.  WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 20-25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEAS ON THE
WATERS S AND SE OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN TO DECLINE FROM 5-7 FT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S...AND WHILE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 031423
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1023 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT
EAST BY SATURDAY. BIG CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE
DAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS WITH WARMING CONDITIONS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE. THAT
MEANS LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES.

MORNING BALLOON SOUNDINGS SHOWED EASY MIXING TO 850 MB...THEN AN
ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 800 MB. MID MORNING AMDAR
SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE MIXING HAD INDEED REACHED 850 MB AT THAT
TIME. TEMPS AT 850 MB WERE 7C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SFC TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SIMILAR TEMPS AT 800 MB WOULD BE EQUIVILENT TO 12C AT
850...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. WITH
PLENTY OF SUN WORKING ON THE AIRMASS WE WOULD EXPECT THE INVERSION
TO EVENTUALLY MIX OUT. CONTINUE TO FORECAST MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...EXCEPT COOLER COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WEATHER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER WAVE ALONG A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...
HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE CHARGE LEAD BY PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS...HAS BEEN TAKEN UP BY THE REST OF THE 03/00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED THE PROJECTED TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST...WITH THE
SLOWEST TIMING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...AS THE DETAILS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT MURKY.

DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SHIFT AMONG ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS...
DECIDED TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST WETTER...RATHER THAN GOING WITH
THE WASHOUT FROM PRIOR RUNS OF THE GFS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A
WINTER-TIME SETUP...WENT WITH RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERS. THAT
SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STAY TUNED FOR MORE POTENTIAL CHANGES
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL
GFS REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS OVERAMPLIFCATION CONTINUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS
WITH THIS LONG TERM UPDATE AND APPLYING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS
AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NE...AS DEEPENING CUTOFF ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE/DRY WX PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...IT IS A MATTER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CUTOFF.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE E SHIFT IN THE CUTOFF...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A LONGER UNSETTLED PERIOD. WHILE OTHERS ARE FURTHER
W...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF.  IN ANY CASE...COOLER AND MORE PERIODIC WET
WX IS POSSIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLY WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SFC FEATURES TO WATCH.
THE FIRST...SAT NIGHT IS AN OCEAN LOW PRES WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE
WHICH...COULD LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS. THE SECOND IS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN. IN EITHER CASE...OVERALL PWATS
IN THE COLUMN ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WITH IN THE LOWEST 300HPA. IN EITHER CASE...AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS LIKELY TO BE MOST RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. H85 TEMPS
NEAR +10C SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS ON SUN REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

MON INTO TUE...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING OVER FROM THE
W...COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT HIGH PRES AND DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THEE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY. H85 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +15C BY TUE.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S WILL BE FORECAST.

WED...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE STRONG
CUTOFF WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...COOLING H5 TEMPS AND LEFTOVER WARM/MOIST LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST DECREASING STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH THE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU AND FRI...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE UPPER CUTOFF GETS TO THE NE CONUS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
EXACTLY HOW MANY WAVE/HOW STRONG AND WHEN THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE TO
BE BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS AND BECOMES BETTER
SAMPLED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP BETWEEN BY MIDDAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS S OF THE MASS PIKE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SE MA/RI
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END.  ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MON INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO NE AS LOW PRES MOVES E OF THE WATERS.  WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 20-25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEAS ON THE
WATERS S AND SE OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN TO DECLINE FROM 5-7 FT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S...AND WHILE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 031423
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1023 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT
EAST BY SATURDAY. BIG CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE
DAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS WITH WARMING CONDITIONS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE. THAT
MEANS LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES.

MORNING BALLOON SOUNDINGS SHOWED EASY MIXING TO 850 MB...THEN AN
ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 800 MB. MID MORNING AMDAR
SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE MIXING HAD INDEED REACHED 850 MB AT THAT
TIME. TEMPS AT 850 MB WERE 7C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SFC TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SIMILAR TEMPS AT 800 MB WOULD BE EQUIVILENT TO 12C AT
850...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. WITH
PLENTY OF SUN WORKING ON THE AIRMASS WE WOULD EXPECT THE INVERSION
TO EVENTUALLY MIX OUT. CONTINUE TO FORECAST MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...EXCEPT COOLER COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WEATHER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER WAVE ALONG A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...
HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE CHARGE LEAD BY PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS...HAS BEEN TAKEN UP BY THE REST OF THE 03/00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED THE PROJECTED TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST...WITH THE
SLOWEST TIMING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...AS THE DETAILS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT MURKY.

DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SHIFT AMONG ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS...
DECIDED TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST WETTER...RATHER THAN GOING WITH
THE WASHOUT FROM PRIOR RUNS OF THE GFS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A
WINTER-TIME SETUP...WENT WITH RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERS. THAT
SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STAY TUNED FOR MORE POTENTIAL CHANGES
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL
GFS REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS OVERAMPLIFCATION CONTINUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS
WITH THIS LONG TERM UPDATE AND APPLYING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS
AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NE...AS DEEPENING CUTOFF ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE/DRY WX PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...IT IS A MATTER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CUTOFF.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE E SHIFT IN THE CUTOFF...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A LONGER UNSETTLED PERIOD. WHILE OTHERS ARE FURTHER
W...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF.  IN ANY CASE...COOLER AND MORE PERIODIC WET
WX IS POSSIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLY WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SFC FEATURES TO WATCH.
THE FIRST...SAT NIGHT IS AN OCEAN LOW PRES WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE
WHICH...COULD LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS. THE SECOND IS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN. IN EITHER CASE...OVERALL PWATS
IN THE COLUMN ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WITH IN THE LOWEST 300HPA. IN EITHER CASE...AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS LIKELY TO BE MOST RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. H85 TEMPS
NEAR +10C SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS ON SUN REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

MON INTO TUE...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING OVER FROM THE
W...COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT HIGH PRES AND DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THEE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY. H85 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +15C BY TUE.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S WILL BE FORECAST.

WED...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE STRONG
CUTOFF WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...COOLING H5 TEMPS AND LEFTOVER WARM/MOIST LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST DECREASING STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH THE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU AND FRI...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE UPPER CUTOFF GETS TO THE NE CONUS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
EXACTLY HOW MANY WAVE/HOW STRONG AND WHEN THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE TO
BE BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS AND BECOMES BETTER
SAMPLED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP BETWEEN BY MIDDAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS S OF THE MASS PIKE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SE MA/RI
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END.  ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MON INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO NE AS LOW PRES MOVES E OF THE WATERS.  WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 20-25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEAS ON THE
WATERS S AND SE OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN TO DECLINE FROM 5-7 FT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S...AND WHILE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 031423
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1023 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT
EAST BY SATURDAY. BIG CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE
DAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS WITH WARMING CONDITIONS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE. THAT
MEANS LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES.

MORNING BALLOON SOUNDINGS SHOWED EASY MIXING TO 850 MB...THEN AN
ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 800 MB. MID MORNING AMDAR
SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE MIXING HAD INDEED REACHED 850 MB AT THAT
TIME. TEMPS AT 850 MB WERE 7C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SFC TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SIMILAR TEMPS AT 800 MB WOULD BE EQUIVILENT TO 12C AT
850...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. WITH
PLENTY OF SUN WORKING ON THE AIRMASS WE WOULD EXPECT THE INVERSION
TO EVENTUALLY MIX OUT. CONTINUE TO FORECAST MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...EXCEPT COOLER COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WEATHER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER WAVE ALONG A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...
HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE CHARGE LEAD BY PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS...HAS BEEN TAKEN UP BY THE REST OF THE 03/00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED THE PROJECTED TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST...WITH THE
SLOWEST TIMING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...AS THE DETAILS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT MURKY.

DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SHIFT AMONG ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS...
DECIDED TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST WETTER...RATHER THAN GOING WITH
THE WASHOUT FROM PRIOR RUNS OF THE GFS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A
WINTER-TIME SETUP...WENT WITH RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERS. THAT
SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STAY TUNED FOR MORE POTENTIAL CHANGES
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL
GFS REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS OVERAMPLIFCATION CONTINUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS
WITH THIS LONG TERM UPDATE AND APPLYING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS
AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NE...AS DEEPENING CUTOFF ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE/DRY WX PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...IT IS A MATTER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CUTOFF.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE E SHIFT IN THE CUTOFF...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A LONGER UNSETTLED PERIOD. WHILE OTHERS ARE FURTHER
W...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF.  IN ANY CASE...COOLER AND MORE PERIODIC WET
WX IS POSSIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLY WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SFC FEATURES TO WATCH.
THE FIRST...SAT NIGHT IS AN OCEAN LOW PRES WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE
WHICH...COULD LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS. THE SECOND IS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN. IN EITHER CASE...OVERALL PWATS
IN THE COLUMN ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WITH IN THE LOWEST 300HPA. IN EITHER CASE...AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS LIKELY TO BE MOST RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. H85 TEMPS
NEAR +10C SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS ON SUN REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

MON INTO TUE...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING OVER FROM THE
W...COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT HIGH PRES AND DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THEE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY. H85 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +15C BY TUE.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S WILL BE FORECAST.

WED...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE STRONG
CUTOFF WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...COOLING H5 TEMPS AND LEFTOVER WARM/MOIST LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST DECREASING STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH THE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU AND FRI...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE UPPER CUTOFF GETS TO THE NE CONUS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
EXACTLY HOW MANY WAVE/HOW STRONG AND WHEN THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE TO
BE BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS AND BECOMES BETTER
SAMPLED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP BETWEEN BY MIDDAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS S OF THE MASS PIKE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SE MA/RI
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END.  ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MON INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO NE AS LOW PRES MOVES E OF THE WATERS.  WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 20-25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEAS ON THE
WATERS S AND SE OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN TO DECLINE FROM 5-7 FT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S...AND WHILE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 031423
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1023 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT
EAST BY SATURDAY. BIG CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE
DAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS WITH WARMING CONDITIONS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE. THAT
MEANS LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES.

MORNING BALLOON SOUNDINGS SHOWED EASY MIXING TO 850 MB...THEN AN
ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 800 MB. MID MORNING AMDAR
SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE MIXING HAD INDEED REACHED 850 MB AT THAT
TIME. TEMPS AT 850 MB WERE 7C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SFC TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SIMILAR TEMPS AT 800 MB WOULD BE EQUIVILENT TO 12C AT
850...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. WITH
PLENTY OF SUN WORKING ON THE AIRMASS WE WOULD EXPECT THE INVERSION
TO EVENTUALLY MIX OUT. CONTINUE TO FORECAST MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...EXCEPT COOLER COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WEATHER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER WAVE ALONG A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...
HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE CHARGE LEAD BY PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS...HAS BEEN TAKEN UP BY THE REST OF THE 03/00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED THE PROJECTED TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST...WITH THE
SLOWEST TIMING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...AS THE DETAILS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT MURKY.

DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SHIFT AMONG ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS...
DECIDED TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST WETTER...RATHER THAN GOING WITH
THE WASHOUT FROM PRIOR RUNS OF THE GFS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A
WINTER-TIME SETUP...WENT WITH RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERS. THAT
SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STAY TUNED FOR MORE POTENTIAL CHANGES
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL
GFS REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS OVERAMPLIFCATION CONTINUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS
WITH THIS LONG TERM UPDATE AND APPLYING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS
AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NE...AS DEEPENING CUTOFF ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE/DRY WX PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...IT IS A MATTER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CUTOFF.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE E SHIFT IN THE CUTOFF...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A LONGER UNSETTLED PERIOD. WHILE OTHERS ARE FURTHER
W...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF.  IN ANY CASE...COOLER AND MORE PERIODIC WET
WX IS POSSIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLY WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SFC FEATURES TO WATCH.
THE FIRST...SAT NIGHT IS AN OCEAN LOW PRES WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE
WHICH...COULD LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS. THE SECOND IS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN. IN EITHER CASE...OVERALL PWATS
IN THE COLUMN ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WITH IN THE LOWEST 300HPA. IN EITHER CASE...AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS LIKELY TO BE MOST RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. H85 TEMPS
NEAR +10C SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS ON SUN REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

MON INTO TUE...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING OVER FROM THE
W...COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT HIGH PRES AND DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THEE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY. H85 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +15C BY TUE.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S WILL BE FORECAST.

WED...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE STRONG
CUTOFF WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...COOLING H5 TEMPS AND LEFTOVER WARM/MOIST LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST DECREASING STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH THE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU AND FRI...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE UPPER CUTOFF GETS TO THE NE CONUS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
EXACTLY HOW MANY WAVE/HOW STRONG AND WHEN THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE TO
BE BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS AND BECOMES BETTER
SAMPLED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP BETWEEN BY MIDDAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS S OF THE MASS PIKE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SE MA/RI
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END.  ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MON INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO NE AS LOW PRES MOVES E OF THE WATERS.  WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 20-25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEAS ON THE
WATERS S AND SE OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN TO DECLINE FROM 5-7 FT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S...AND WHILE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 031423
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1023 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT
EAST BY SATURDAY. BIG CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE
DAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS WITH WARMING CONDITIONS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE. THAT
MEANS LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES.

MORNING BALLOON SOUNDINGS SHOWED EASY MIXING TO 850 MB...THEN AN
ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 800 MB. MID MORNING AMDAR
SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE MIXING HAD INDEED REACHED 850 MB AT THAT
TIME. TEMPS AT 850 MB WERE 7C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SFC TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SIMILAR TEMPS AT 800 MB WOULD BE EQUIVILENT TO 12C AT
850...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. WITH
PLENTY OF SUN WORKING ON THE AIRMASS WE WOULD EXPECT THE INVERSION
TO EVENTUALLY MIX OUT. CONTINUE TO FORECAST MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...EXCEPT COOLER COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WEATHER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER WAVE ALONG A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...
HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE CHARGE LEAD BY PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS...HAS BEEN TAKEN UP BY THE REST OF THE 03/00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED THE PROJECTED TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST...WITH THE
SLOWEST TIMING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...AS THE DETAILS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT MURKY.

DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SHIFT AMONG ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS...
DECIDED TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST WETTER...RATHER THAN GOING WITH
THE WASHOUT FROM PRIOR RUNS OF THE GFS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A
WINTER-TIME SETUP...WENT WITH RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERS. THAT
SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STAY TUNED FOR MORE POTENTIAL CHANGES
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL
GFS REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS OVERAMPLIFCATION CONTINUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS
WITH THIS LONG TERM UPDATE AND APPLYING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS
AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NE...AS DEEPENING CUTOFF ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE/DRY WX PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...IT IS A MATTER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CUTOFF.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE E SHIFT IN THE CUTOFF...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A LONGER UNSETTLED PERIOD. WHILE OTHERS ARE FURTHER
W...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF.  IN ANY CASE...COOLER AND MORE PERIODIC WET
WX IS POSSIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLY WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SFC FEATURES TO WATCH.
THE FIRST...SAT NIGHT IS AN OCEAN LOW PRES WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE
WHICH...COULD LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS. THE SECOND IS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN. IN EITHER CASE...OVERALL PWATS
IN THE COLUMN ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WITH IN THE LOWEST 300HPA. IN EITHER CASE...AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS LIKELY TO BE MOST RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. H85 TEMPS
NEAR +10C SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS ON SUN REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

MON INTO TUE...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING OVER FROM THE
W...COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT HIGH PRES AND DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THEE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY. H85 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +15C BY TUE.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S WILL BE FORECAST.

WED...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE STRONG
CUTOFF WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...COOLING H5 TEMPS AND LEFTOVER WARM/MOIST LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST DECREASING STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH THE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU AND FRI...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE UPPER CUTOFF GETS TO THE NE CONUS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
EXACTLY HOW MANY WAVE/HOW STRONG AND WHEN THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE TO
BE BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS AND BECOMES BETTER
SAMPLED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP BETWEEN BY MIDDAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS S OF THE MASS PIKE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SE MA/RI
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END.  ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MON INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO NE AS LOW PRES MOVES E OF THE WATERS.  WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 20-25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEAS ON THE
WATERS S AND SE OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN TO DECLINE FROM 5-7 FT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S...AND WHILE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 031423
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1023 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT
EAST BY SATURDAY. BIG CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE
DAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS WITH WARMING CONDITIONS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE. THAT
MEANS LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES.

MORNING BALLOON SOUNDINGS SHOWED EASY MIXING TO 850 MB...THEN AN
ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 800 MB. MID MORNING AMDAR
SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE MIXING HAD INDEED REACHED 850 MB AT THAT
TIME. TEMPS AT 850 MB WERE 7C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SFC TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SIMILAR TEMPS AT 800 MB WOULD BE EQUIVILENT TO 12C AT
850...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. WITH
PLENTY OF SUN WORKING ON THE AIRMASS WE WOULD EXPECT THE INVERSION
TO EVENTUALLY MIX OUT. CONTINUE TO FORECAST MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...EXCEPT COOLER COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WEATHER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER WAVE ALONG A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...
HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE CHARGE LEAD BY PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS...HAS BEEN TAKEN UP BY THE REST OF THE 03/00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED THE PROJECTED TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST...WITH THE
SLOWEST TIMING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...AS THE DETAILS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT MURKY.

DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SHIFT AMONG ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS...
DECIDED TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST WETTER...RATHER THAN GOING WITH
THE WASHOUT FROM PRIOR RUNS OF THE GFS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A
WINTER-TIME SETUP...WENT WITH RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERS. THAT
SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STAY TUNED FOR MORE POTENTIAL CHANGES
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL
GFS REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS OVERAMPLIFCATION CONTINUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS
WITH THIS LONG TERM UPDATE AND APPLYING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS
AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NE...AS DEEPENING CUTOFF ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE/DRY WX PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...IT IS A MATTER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CUTOFF.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE E SHIFT IN THE CUTOFF...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A LONGER UNSETTLED PERIOD. WHILE OTHERS ARE FURTHER
W...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF.  IN ANY CASE...COOLER AND MORE PERIODIC WET
WX IS POSSIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLY WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SFC FEATURES TO WATCH.
THE FIRST...SAT NIGHT IS AN OCEAN LOW PRES WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE
WHICH...COULD LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS. THE SECOND IS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN. IN EITHER CASE...OVERALL PWATS
IN THE COLUMN ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WITH IN THE LOWEST 300HPA. IN EITHER CASE...AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS LIKELY TO BE MOST RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. H85 TEMPS
NEAR +10C SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS ON SUN REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

MON INTO TUE...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING OVER FROM THE
W...COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT HIGH PRES AND DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THEE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY. H85 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +15C BY TUE.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S WILL BE FORECAST.

WED...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE STRONG
CUTOFF WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...COOLING H5 TEMPS AND LEFTOVER WARM/MOIST LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST DECREASING STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH THE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU AND FRI...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE UPPER CUTOFF GETS TO THE NE CONUS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
EXACTLY HOW MANY WAVE/HOW STRONG AND WHEN THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE TO
BE BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS AND BECOMES BETTER
SAMPLED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP BETWEEN BY MIDDAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS S OF THE MASS PIKE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SE MA/RI
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END.  ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MON INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO NE AS LOW PRES MOVES E OF THE WATERS.  WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 20-25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEAS ON THE
WATERS S AND SE OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN TO DECLINE FROM 5-7 FT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S...AND WHILE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KGYX 031348
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
948 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM UPDATE: MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES...OTHERWISE NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

745 AM UPDATE: QUICK UPDATE FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY DENSE RIVER
VALLEY FOG...VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS IT NICELY. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.


730AM UPDATE...
SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY WITH THIS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXITING TO THE EAST. BENEATH THE SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS WARMER
AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS WHILE SOME LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AS WELL. A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS FAR TONIGHT AS THEY DID
LAST NIGHT. 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 40S IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS.

INDEPENDENCE DAY IS A UNIQUE HOLIDAY IN THAT IT IS ONE IN WHICH
THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TIED TO THE HOLIDAY.
THE FOURTH OF JULY OCCURS ON A SATURDAY ONLY ONCE EVERY 5 OR 6
YEARS. WITH THE HOLIDAY OCCURRING ON A SATURDAY THIS YEAR... IT
CAN BE ASSUMED THAT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE PARTICULARLY
IMPORTANT TO MANY PEOPLE.

A HANDFUL OF DAYS A YEAR THE FORECAST MODELS LEAD FORECASTERS IN
ONE FORECAST DIRECTION FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND THEN SUDDENLY SHIFT
WITHIN THE FINAL DAY OR TWO TO BRING A SURPRISE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. WHILE THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN ALL THAT OFTEN... IT CAN BE A
PARTICULAR PAIN FOR FORECASTERS WHO PRIDE THEMSELVES ON TRYING TO
PRODUCE A HIGH QUALITY AND CONSISTENT FORECAST THAT USERS CAN RELY
ON FROM DAY TO DAY.

UNFORTUNATELY... MODEL FORECASTS HAVE SUDDENLY SHIFTED JUST IN
TIME FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. THE TIMING OF THIS COULD NOT BE MUCH
WORSE. WHILE FOR MANY DAYS FORECASTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY CALLED FOR
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY... THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
HAS INCREASINGLY BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND... LEADING TO A DRY INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. THIS DRY
FORECAST HAS NOW COME INTO QUESTION. EACH OF THE MAJOR MODELS NOW
FORECAST RAIN FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY... MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND POTENTIALLY
INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE.

THE NAM IS INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT ASSOCIATED
DIRECTLY WITH THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW... AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT TO COMPLETELY RUIN MOST OUTDOOR
EVENTS. THE GFS USES THIS MID LEVEL LIFT TO NOW DEVELOP A MORE
ROBUST SURFACE LOW AND TRACK IT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD THEN DEVELOP
WOULD SPREAD THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS AND UP INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE. THIS WOULD BE A
LITTLE HEAVIER RAIN BUT STILL MAYBE NOT A COMPLETE WASH OUT. FOR
ITS PART THE ECMWF GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE GFS THOUGH THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE AND LESS OVERALL QPF. THE CMC ALSO
DEVELOPS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BUT KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH
OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? THERE IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. WHEN THE MAV
AND MET BOTH SUGGEST 70 TO 80 POP IT IS USUALLY TOUGH TO ARGUE
WITH. BUT CONSIDERING THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WHICH HAS SHOWN SUCH A
HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION... IT HAS BEEN DECIDED THAT IT WOULD
BE BETTER TO RAISE THE POP A LITTLE BIT AND WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THIS NEW SOLUTION BEFORE JUMPING FULLY
ON BOARD WITH IT. FOR NOW... WILL GO WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LIKELY RAIN EVENT ON
SATURDAY... THE NEXT FORECAST SHIFT CAN HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
GOING WITH THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT
INDEPENDENCE DAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT EVEN IF IT
DOES RAIN AT SOME POINT. BUT IT IS WORTH COMING BACK TO CHECK
FUTURE FORECASTS AS THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON THIS FORECAST CAN
SEEMINGLY ONLY GO UP FROM HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING KEEPING THE CHANCE OF A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AROUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BERMUDA HIGH THEN EXPANDS
TO ENVELOPE THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF
NOTE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY
WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING BUT SURFACE HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH EACH
DAY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY BUT QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAKES IT PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN EACH DAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY THE
CEILING AND VISIBILITY MAY NOT BE IMPACTED MUCH.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...NO CONCERNS. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS
THE REGION THIS COMING WEEK BUT NONE ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISTURB
THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 031348
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
948 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM UPDATE: MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES...OTHERWISE NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

745 AM UPDATE: QUICK UPDATE FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY DENSE RIVER
VALLEY FOG...VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS IT NICELY. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.


730AM UPDATE...
SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY WITH THIS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXITING TO THE EAST. BENEATH THE SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS WARMER
AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS WHILE SOME LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AS WELL. A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS FAR TONIGHT AS THEY DID
LAST NIGHT. 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 40S IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS.

INDEPENDENCE DAY IS A UNIQUE HOLIDAY IN THAT IT IS ONE IN WHICH
THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TIED TO THE HOLIDAY.
THE FOURTH OF JULY OCCURS ON A SATURDAY ONLY ONCE EVERY 5 OR 6
YEARS. WITH THE HOLIDAY OCCURRING ON A SATURDAY THIS YEAR... IT
CAN BE ASSUMED THAT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE PARTICULARLY
IMPORTANT TO MANY PEOPLE.

A HANDFUL OF DAYS A YEAR THE FORECAST MODELS LEAD FORECASTERS IN
ONE FORECAST DIRECTION FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND THEN SUDDENLY SHIFT
WITHIN THE FINAL DAY OR TWO TO BRING A SURPRISE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. WHILE THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN ALL THAT OFTEN... IT CAN BE A
PARTICULAR PAIN FOR FORECASTERS WHO PRIDE THEMSELVES ON TRYING TO
PRODUCE A HIGH QUALITY AND CONSISTENT FORECAST THAT USERS CAN RELY
ON FROM DAY TO DAY.

UNFORTUNATELY... MODEL FORECASTS HAVE SUDDENLY SHIFTED JUST IN
TIME FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. THE TIMING OF THIS COULD NOT BE MUCH
WORSE. WHILE FOR MANY DAYS FORECASTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY CALLED FOR
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY... THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
HAS INCREASINGLY BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND... LEADING TO A DRY INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. THIS DRY
FORECAST HAS NOW COME INTO QUESTION. EACH OF THE MAJOR MODELS NOW
FORECAST RAIN FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY... MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND POTENTIALLY
INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE.

THE NAM IS INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT ASSOCIATED
DIRECTLY WITH THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW... AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT TO COMPLETELY RUIN MOST OUTDOOR
EVENTS. THE GFS USES THIS MID LEVEL LIFT TO NOW DEVELOP A MORE
ROBUST SURFACE LOW AND TRACK IT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD THEN DEVELOP
WOULD SPREAD THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS AND UP INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE. THIS WOULD BE A
LITTLE HEAVIER RAIN BUT STILL MAYBE NOT A COMPLETE WASH OUT. FOR
ITS PART THE ECMWF GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE GFS THOUGH THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE AND LESS OVERALL QPF. THE CMC ALSO
DEVELOPS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BUT KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH
OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? THERE IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. WHEN THE MAV
AND MET BOTH SUGGEST 70 TO 80 POP IT IS USUALLY TOUGH TO ARGUE
WITH. BUT CONSIDERING THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WHICH HAS SHOWN SUCH A
HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION... IT HAS BEEN DECIDED THAT IT WOULD
BE BETTER TO RAISE THE POP A LITTLE BIT AND WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THIS NEW SOLUTION BEFORE JUMPING FULLY
ON BOARD WITH IT. FOR NOW... WILL GO WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LIKELY RAIN EVENT ON
SATURDAY... THE NEXT FORECAST SHIFT CAN HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
GOING WITH THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT
INDEPENDENCE DAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT EVEN IF IT
DOES RAIN AT SOME POINT. BUT IT IS WORTH COMING BACK TO CHECK
FUTURE FORECASTS AS THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON THIS FORECAST CAN
SEEMINGLY ONLY GO UP FROM HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING KEEPING THE CHANCE OF A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AROUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BERMUDA HIGH THEN EXPANDS
TO ENVELOPE THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF
NOTE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY
WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING BUT SURFACE HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH EACH
DAY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY BUT QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAKES IT PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN EACH DAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY THE
CEILING AND VISIBILITY MAY NOT BE IMPACTED MUCH.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...NO CONCERNS. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS
THE REGION THIS COMING WEEK BUT NONE ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISTURB
THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 031151
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
751 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
745 AM UPDATE: QUICK UPDATE FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY DENSE RIVER
VALLEY FOG...VISIBILE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS IT NICELY. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.


730AM UPDATE...
SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY WITH THIS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXITING TO THE EAST. BENEATH THE SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS WARMER
AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS WHILE SOME LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AS WELL. A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS FAR TONIGHT AS THEY DID
LAST NIGHT. 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 40S IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS.

INDEPENDENCE DAY IS A UNIQUE HOLIDAY IN THAT IT IS ONE IN WHICH
THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TIED TO THE HOLIDAY.
THE FOURTH OF JULY OCCURS ON A SATURDAY ONLY ONCE EVERY 5 OR 6
YEARS. WITH THE HOLIDAY OCCURRING ON A SATURDAY THIS YEAR... IT
CAN BE ASSUMED THAT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE PARTICULARLY
IMPORTANT TO MANY PEOPLE.

A HANDFUL OF DAYS A YEAR THE FORECAST MODELS LEAD FORECASTERS IN
ONE FORECAST DIRECTION FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND THEN SUDDENLY SHIFT
WITHIN THE FINAL DAY OR TWO TO BRING A SURPRISE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. WHILE THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN ALL THAT OFTEN... IT CAN BE A
PARTICULAR PAIN FOR FORECASTERS WHO PRIDE THEMSELVES ON TRYING TO
PRODUCE A HIGH QUALITY AND CONSISTENT FORECAST THAT USERS CAN RELY
ON FROM DAY TO DAY.

UNFORTUNATELY... MODEL FORECASTS HAVE SUDDENLY SHIFTED JUST IN
TIME FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. THE TIMING OF THIS COULD NOT BE MUCH
WORSE. WHILE FOR MANY DAYS FORECASTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY CALLED FOR
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY... THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
HAS INCREASINGLY BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND... LEADING TO A DRY INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. THIS DRY
FORECAST HAS NOW COME INTO QUESTION. EACH OF THE MAJOR MODELS NOW
FORECAST RAIN FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY... MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND POTENTIALLY
INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE.

THE NAM IS INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT ASSOCIATED
DIRECTLY WITH THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW... AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT TO COMPLETELY RUIN MOST OUTDOOR
EVENTS. THE GFS USES THIS MID LEVEL LIFT TO NOW DEVELOP A MORE
ROBUST SURFACE LOW AND TRACK IT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD THEN DEVELOP
WOULD SPREAD THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS AND UP INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE. THIS WOULD BE A
LITTLE HEAVIER RAIN BUT STILL MAYBE NOT A COMPLETE WASH OUT. FOR
ITS PART THE ECMWF GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE GFS THOUGH THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE AND LESS OVERALL QPF. THE CMC ALSO
DEVELOPS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BUT KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH
OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? THERE IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. WHEN THE MAV
AND MET BOTH SUGGEST 70 TO 80 POP IT IS USUALLY TOUGH TO ARGUE
WITH. BUT CONSIDERING THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WHICH HAS SHOWN SUCH A
HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION... IT HAS BEEN DECIDED THAT IT WOULD
BE BETTER TO RAISE THE POP A LITTLE BIT AND WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THIS NEW SOLUTION BEFORE JUMPING FULLY
ON BOARD WITH IT. FOR NOW... WILL GO WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LIKELY RAIN EVENT ON
SATURDAY... THE NEXT FORECAST SHIFT CAN HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
GOING WITH THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT
INDEPENDENCE DAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT EVEN IF IT
DOES RAIN AT SOME POINT. BUT IT IS WORTH COMING BACK TO CHECK
FUTURE FORECASTS AS THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON THIS FORECAST CAN
SEEMINGLY ONLY GO UP FROM HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING KEEPING THE CHANCE OF A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AROUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BERMUDA HIGH THEN EXPANDS
TO ENVELOPE THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF
NOTE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY
WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING BUT SURFACE HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH EACH
DAY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY BUT QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAKES IT PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN EACH DAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY THE
CEILING AND VISIBILITY MAY NOT BE IMPACTED MUCH.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...NO CONCERNS. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS
THE REGION THIS COMING WEEK BUT NONE ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISTURB
THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 031151
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
751 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
745 AM UPDATE: QUICK UPDATE FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY DENSE RIVER
VALLEY FOG...VISIBILE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS IT NICELY. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.


730AM UPDATE...
SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY WITH THIS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXITING TO THE EAST. BENEATH THE SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS WARMER
AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS WHILE SOME LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AS WELL. A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS FAR TONIGHT AS THEY DID
LAST NIGHT. 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 40S IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS.

INDEPENDENCE DAY IS A UNIQUE HOLIDAY IN THAT IT IS ONE IN WHICH
THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TIED TO THE HOLIDAY.
THE FOURTH OF JULY OCCURS ON A SATURDAY ONLY ONCE EVERY 5 OR 6
YEARS. WITH THE HOLIDAY OCCURRING ON A SATURDAY THIS YEAR... IT
CAN BE ASSUMED THAT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE PARTICULARLY
IMPORTANT TO MANY PEOPLE.

A HANDFUL OF DAYS A YEAR THE FORECAST MODELS LEAD FORECASTERS IN
ONE FORECAST DIRECTION FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND THEN SUDDENLY SHIFT
WITHIN THE FINAL DAY OR TWO TO BRING A SURPRISE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. WHILE THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN ALL THAT OFTEN... IT CAN BE A
PARTICULAR PAIN FOR FORECASTERS WHO PRIDE THEMSELVES ON TRYING TO
PRODUCE A HIGH QUALITY AND CONSISTENT FORECAST THAT USERS CAN RELY
ON FROM DAY TO DAY.

UNFORTUNATELY... MODEL FORECASTS HAVE SUDDENLY SHIFTED JUST IN
TIME FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. THE TIMING OF THIS COULD NOT BE MUCH
WORSE. WHILE FOR MANY DAYS FORECASTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY CALLED FOR
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY... THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
HAS INCREASINGLY BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND... LEADING TO A DRY INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. THIS DRY
FORECAST HAS NOW COME INTO QUESTION. EACH OF THE MAJOR MODELS NOW
FORECAST RAIN FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY... MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND POTENTIALLY
INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE.

THE NAM IS INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT ASSOCIATED
DIRECTLY WITH THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW... AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT TO COMPLETELY RUIN MOST OUTDOOR
EVENTS. THE GFS USES THIS MID LEVEL LIFT TO NOW DEVELOP A MORE
ROBUST SURFACE LOW AND TRACK IT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD THEN DEVELOP
WOULD SPREAD THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS AND UP INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE. THIS WOULD BE A
LITTLE HEAVIER RAIN BUT STILL MAYBE NOT A COMPLETE WASH OUT. FOR
ITS PART THE ECMWF GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE GFS THOUGH THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE AND LESS OVERALL QPF. THE CMC ALSO
DEVELOPS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BUT KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH
OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? THERE IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. WHEN THE MAV
AND MET BOTH SUGGEST 70 TO 80 POP IT IS USUALLY TOUGH TO ARGUE
WITH. BUT CONSIDERING THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WHICH HAS SHOWN SUCH A
HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION... IT HAS BEEN DECIDED THAT IT WOULD
BE BETTER TO RAISE THE POP A LITTLE BIT AND WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THIS NEW SOLUTION BEFORE JUMPING FULLY
ON BOARD WITH IT. FOR NOW... WILL GO WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LIKELY RAIN EVENT ON
SATURDAY... THE NEXT FORECAST SHIFT CAN HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
GOING WITH THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT
INDEPENDENCE DAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT EVEN IF IT
DOES RAIN AT SOME POINT. BUT IT IS WORTH COMING BACK TO CHECK
FUTURE FORECASTS AS THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON THIS FORECAST CAN
SEEMINGLY ONLY GO UP FROM HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING KEEPING THE CHANCE OF A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AROUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BERMUDA HIGH THEN EXPANDS
TO ENVELOPE THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF
NOTE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY
WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING BUT SURFACE HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH EACH
DAY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY BUT QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAKES IT PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN EACH DAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY THE
CEILING AND VISIBILITY MAY NOT BE IMPACTED MUCH.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...NO CONCERNS. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS
THE REGION THIS COMING WEEK BUT NONE ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISTURB
THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 031151
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
751 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
745 AM UPDATE: QUICK UPDATE FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY DENSE RIVER
VALLEY FOG...VISIBILE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS IT NICELY. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.


730AM UPDATE...
SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY WITH THIS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXITING TO THE EAST. BENEATH THE SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS WARMER
AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS WHILE SOME LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AS WELL. A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS FAR TONIGHT AS THEY DID
LAST NIGHT. 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 40S IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS.

INDEPENDENCE DAY IS A UNIQUE HOLIDAY IN THAT IT IS ONE IN WHICH
THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TIED TO THE HOLIDAY.
THE FOURTH OF JULY OCCURS ON A SATURDAY ONLY ONCE EVERY 5 OR 6
YEARS. WITH THE HOLIDAY OCCURRING ON A SATURDAY THIS YEAR... IT
CAN BE ASSUMED THAT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE PARTICULARLY
IMPORTANT TO MANY PEOPLE.

A HANDFUL OF DAYS A YEAR THE FORECAST MODELS LEAD FORECASTERS IN
ONE FORECAST DIRECTION FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND THEN SUDDENLY SHIFT
WITHIN THE FINAL DAY OR TWO TO BRING A SURPRISE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. WHILE THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN ALL THAT OFTEN... IT CAN BE A
PARTICULAR PAIN FOR FORECASTERS WHO PRIDE THEMSELVES ON TRYING TO
PRODUCE A HIGH QUALITY AND CONSISTENT FORECAST THAT USERS CAN RELY
ON FROM DAY TO DAY.

UNFORTUNATELY... MODEL FORECASTS HAVE SUDDENLY SHIFTED JUST IN
TIME FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. THE TIMING OF THIS COULD NOT BE MUCH
WORSE. WHILE FOR MANY DAYS FORECASTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY CALLED FOR
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY... THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
HAS INCREASINGLY BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND... LEADING TO A DRY INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. THIS DRY
FORECAST HAS NOW COME INTO QUESTION. EACH OF THE MAJOR MODELS NOW
FORECAST RAIN FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY... MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND POTENTIALLY
INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE.

THE NAM IS INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT ASSOCIATED
DIRECTLY WITH THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW... AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT TO COMPLETELY RUIN MOST OUTDOOR
EVENTS. THE GFS USES THIS MID LEVEL LIFT TO NOW DEVELOP A MORE
ROBUST SURFACE LOW AND TRACK IT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD THEN DEVELOP
WOULD SPREAD THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS AND UP INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE. THIS WOULD BE A
LITTLE HEAVIER RAIN BUT STILL MAYBE NOT A COMPLETE WASH OUT. FOR
ITS PART THE ECMWF GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE GFS THOUGH THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE AND LESS OVERALL QPF. THE CMC ALSO
DEVELOPS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BUT KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH
OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? THERE IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. WHEN THE MAV
AND MET BOTH SUGGEST 70 TO 80 POP IT IS USUALLY TOUGH TO ARGUE
WITH. BUT CONSIDERING THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WHICH HAS SHOWN SUCH A
HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION... IT HAS BEEN DECIDED THAT IT WOULD
BE BETTER TO RAISE THE POP A LITTLE BIT AND WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THIS NEW SOLUTION BEFORE JUMPING FULLY
ON BOARD WITH IT. FOR NOW... WILL GO WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LIKELY RAIN EVENT ON
SATURDAY... THE NEXT FORECAST SHIFT CAN HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
GOING WITH THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT
INDEPENDENCE DAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT EVEN IF IT
DOES RAIN AT SOME POINT. BUT IT IS WORTH COMING BACK TO CHECK
FUTURE FORECASTS AS THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON THIS FORECAST CAN
SEEMINGLY ONLY GO UP FROM HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING KEEPING THE CHANCE OF A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AROUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BERMUDA HIGH THEN EXPANDS
TO ENVELOPE THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF
NOTE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY
WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING BUT SURFACE HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH EACH
DAY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY BUT QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAKES IT PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN EACH DAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY THE
CEILING AND VISIBILITY MAY NOT BE IMPACTED MUCH.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...NO CONCERNS. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS
THE REGION THIS COMING WEEK BUT NONE ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISTURB
THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 031130
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
730 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
730AM UPDATE...
SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY WITH THIS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXITING TO THE EAST. BENEATH THE SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS WARMER
AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS WHILE SOME LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AS WELL. A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS FAR TONIGHT AS THEY DID
LAST NIGHT. 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 40S IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS.

INDEPENDENCE DAY IS A UNIQUE HOLIDAY IN THAT IT IS ONE IN WHICH
THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TIED TO THE HOLIDAY.
THE FOURTH OF JULY OCCURS ON A SATURDAY ONLY ONCE EVERY 5 OR 6
YEARS. WITH THE HOLIDAY OCCURRING ON A SATURDAY THIS YEAR... IT
CAN BE ASSUMED THAT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE PARTICULARLY
IMPORTANT TO MANY PEOPLE.

A HANDFUL OF DAYS A YEAR THE FORECAST MODELS LEAD FORECASTERS IN
ONE FORECAST DIRECTION FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND THEN SUDDENLY SHIFT
WITHIN THE FINAL DAY OR TWO TO BRING A SURPRISE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. WHILE THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN ALL THAT OFTEN... IT CAN BE A
PARTICULAR PAIN FOR FORECASTERS WHO PRIDE THEMSELVES ON TRYING TO
PRODUCE A HIGH QUALITY AND CONSISTENT FORECAST THAT USERS CAN RELY
ON FROM DAY TO DAY.

UNFORTUNATELY... MODEL FORECASTS HAVE SUDDENLY SHIFTED JUST IN
TIME FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. THE TIMING OF THIS COULD NOT BE MUCH
WORSE. WHILE FOR MANY DAYS FORECASTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY CALLED FOR
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY... THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
HAS INCREASINGLY BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND... LEADING TO A DRY INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. THIS DRY
FORECAST HAS NOW COME INTO QUESTION. EACH OF THE MAJOR MODELS NOW
FORECAST RAIN FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY... MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND POTENTIALLY
INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE.

THE NAM IS INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT ASSOCIATED
DIRECTLY WITH THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW... AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT TO COMPLETELY RUIN MOST OUTDOOR
EVENTS. THE GFS USES THIS MID LEVEL LIFT TO NOW DEVELOP A MORE
ROBUST SURFACE LOW AND TRACK IT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD THEN DEVELOP
WOULD SPREAD THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS AND UP INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE. THIS WOULD BE A
LITTLE HEAVIER RAIN BUT STILL MAYBE NOT A COMPLETE WASH OUT. FOR
ITS PART THE ECMWF GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE GFS THOUGH THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE AND LESS OVERALL QPF. THE CMC ALSO
DEVELOPS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BUT KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH
OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? THERE IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. WHEN THE MAV
AND MET BOTH SUGGEST 70 TO 80 POP IT IS USUALLY TOUGH TO ARGUE
WITH. BUT CONSIDERING THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WHICH HAS SHOWN SUCH A
HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION... IT HAS BEEN DECIDED THAT IT WOULD
BE BETTER TO RAISE THE POP A LITTLE BIT AND WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THIS NEW SOLUTION BEFORE JUMPING FULLY
ON BOARD WITH IT. FOR NOW... WILL GO WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LIKELY RAIN EVENT ON
SATURDAY... THE NEXT FORECAST SHIFT CAN HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
GOING WITH THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT
INDEPENDENCE DAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT EVEN IF IT
DOES RAIN AT SOME POINT. BUT IT IS WORTH COMING BACK TO CHECK
FUTURE FORECASTS AS THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON THIS FORECAST CAN
SEEMINGLY ONLY GO UP FROM HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING KEEPING THE CHANCE OF A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AROUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BERMUDA HIGH THEN EXPANDS
TO ENVELOPE THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF
NOTE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY
WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING BUT SURFACE HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH EACH
DAY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY BUT QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAKES IT PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN EACH DAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY THE
CEILING AND VISIBILITY MAY NOT BE IMPACTED MUCH.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...NO CONCERNS. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS
THE REGION THIS COMING WEEK BUT NONE ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISTURB
THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

KIMBLE/HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 031130
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
730 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
730AM UPDATE...
SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY WITH THIS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXITING TO THE EAST. BENEATH THE SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS WARMER
AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS WHILE SOME LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AS WELL. A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS FAR TONIGHT AS THEY DID
LAST NIGHT. 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 40S IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS.

INDEPENDENCE DAY IS A UNIQUE HOLIDAY IN THAT IT IS ONE IN WHICH
THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TIED TO THE HOLIDAY.
THE FOURTH OF JULY OCCURS ON A SATURDAY ONLY ONCE EVERY 5 OR 6
YEARS. WITH THE HOLIDAY OCCURRING ON A SATURDAY THIS YEAR... IT
CAN BE ASSUMED THAT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE PARTICULARLY
IMPORTANT TO MANY PEOPLE.

A HANDFUL OF DAYS A YEAR THE FORECAST MODELS LEAD FORECASTERS IN
ONE FORECAST DIRECTION FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND THEN SUDDENLY SHIFT
WITHIN THE FINAL DAY OR TWO TO BRING A SURPRISE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. WHILE THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN ALL THAT OFTEN... IT CAN BE A
PARTICULAR PAIN FOR FORECASTERS WHO PRIDE THEMSELVES ON TRYING TO
PRODUCE A HIGH QUALITY AND CONSISTENT FORECAST THAT USERS CAN RELY
ON FROM DAY TO DAY.

UNFORTUNATELY... MODEL FORECASTS HAVE SUDDENLY SHIFTED JUST IN
TIME FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. THE TIMING OF THIS COULD NOT BE MUCH
WORSE. WHILE FOR MANY DAYS FORECASTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY CALLED FOR
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY... THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
HAS INCREASINGLY BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND... LEADING TO A DRY INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. THIS DRY
FORECAST HAS NOW COME INTO QUESTION. EACH OF THE MAJOR MODELS NOW
FORECAST RAIN FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY... MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND POTENTIALLY
INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE.

THE NAM IS INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT ASSOCIATED
DIRECTLY WITH THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW... AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT TO COMPLETELY RUIN MOST OUTDOOR
EVENTS. THE GFS USES THIS MID LEVEL LIFT TO NOW DEVELOP A MORE
ROBUST SURFACE LOW AND TRACK IT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD THEN DEVELOP
WOULD SPREAD THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS AND UP INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE. THIS WOULD BE A
LITTLE HEAVIER RAIN BUT STILL MAYBE NOT A COMPLETE WASH OUT. FOR
ITS PART THE ECMWF GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE GFS THOUGH THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE AND LESS OVERALL QPF. THE CMC ALSO
DEVELOPS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BUT KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH
OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? THERE IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. WHEN THE MAV
AND MET BOTH SUGGEST 70 TO 80 POP IT IS USUALLY TOUGH TO ARGUE
WITH. BUT CONSIDERING THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WHICH HAS SHOWN SUCH A
HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION... IT HAS BEEN DECIDED THAT IT WOULD
BE BETTER TO RAISE THE POP A LITTLE BIT AND WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THIS NEW SOLUTION BEFORE JUMPING FULLY
ON BOARD WITH IT. FOR NOW... WILL GO WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LIKELY RAIN EVENT ON
SATURDAY... THE NEXT FORECAST SHIFT CAN HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
GOING WITH THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT
INDEPENDENCE DAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT EVEN IF IT
DOES RAIN AT SOME POINT. BUT IT IS WORTH COMING BACK TO CHECK
FUTURE FORECASTS AS THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON THIS FORECAST CAN
SEEMINGLY ONLY GO UP FROM HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING KEEPING THE CHANCE OF A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AROUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BERMUDA HIGH THEN EXPANDS
TO ENVELOPE THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF
NOTE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY
WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING BUT SURFACE HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH EACH
DAY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY BUT QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAKES IT PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN EACH DAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY THE
CEILING AND VISIBILITY MAY NOT BE IMPACTED MUCH.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...NO CONCERNS. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS
THE REGION THIS COMING WEEK BUT NONE ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISTURB
THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

KIMBLE/HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 031130
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
730 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
730AM UPDATE...
SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY WITH THIS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXITING TO THE EAST. BENEATH THE SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS WARMER
AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS WHILE SOME LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AS WELL. A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS FAR TONIGHT AS THEY DID
LAST NIGHT. 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 40S IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS.

INDEPENDENCE DAY IS A UNIQUE HOLIDAY IN THAT IT IS ONE IN WHICH
THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TIED TO THE HOLIDAY.
THE FOURTH OF JULY OCCURS ON A SATURDAY ONLY ONCE EVERY 5 OR 6
YEARS. WITH THE HOLIDAY OCCURRING ON A SATURDAY THIS YEAR... IT
CAN BE ASSUMED THAT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE PARTICULARLY
IMPORTANT TO MANY PEOPLE.

A HANDFUL OF DAYS A YEAR THE FORECAST MODELS LEAD FORECASTERS IN
ONE FORECAST DIRECTION FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND THEN SUDDENLY SHIFT
WITHIN THE FINAL DAY OR TWO TO BRING A SURPRISE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. WHILE THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN ALL THAT OFTEN... IT CAN BE A
PARTICULAR PAIN FOR FORECASTERS WHO PRIDE THEMSELVES ON TRYING TO
PRODUCE A HIGH QUALITY AND CONSISTENT FORECAST THAT USERS CAN RELY
ON FROM DAY TO DAY.

UNFORTUNATELY... MODEL FORECASTS HAVE SUDDENLY SHIFTED JUST IN
TIME FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. THE TIMING OF THIS COULD NOT BE MUCH
WORSE. WHILE FOR MANY DAYS FORECASTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY CALLED FOR
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY... THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
HAS INCREASINGLY BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND... LEADING TO A DRY INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. THIS DRY
FORECAST HAS NOW COME INTO QUESTION. EACH OF THE MAJOR MODELS NOW
FORECAST RAIN FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY... MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND POTENTIALLY
INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE.

THE NAM IS INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT ASSOCIATED
DIRECTLY WITH THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW... AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT TO COMPLETELY RUIN MOST OUTDOOR
EVENTS. THE GFS USES THIS MID LEVEL LIFT TO NOW DEVELOP A MORE
ROBUST SURFACE LOW AND TRACK IT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD THEN DEVELOP
WOULD SPREAD THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS AND UP INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE. THIS WOULD BE A
LITTLE HEAVIER RAIN BUT STILL MAYBE NOT A COMPLETE WASH OUT. FOR
ITS PART THE ECMWF GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE GFS THOUGH THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE AND LESS OVERALL QPF. THE CMC ALSO
DEVELOPS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BUT KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH
OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? THERE IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. WHEN THE MAV
AND MET BOTH SUGGEST 70 TO 80 POP IT IS USUALLY TOUGH TO ARGUE
WITH. BUT CONSIDERING THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WHICH HAS SHOWN SUCH A
HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION... IT HAS BEEN DECIDED THAT IT WOULD
BE BETTER TO RAISE THE POP A LITTLE BIT AND WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THIS NEW SOLUTION BEFORE JUMPING FULLY
ON BOARD WITH IT. FOR NOW... WILL GO WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LIKELY RAIN EVENT ON
SATURDAY... THE NEXT FORECAST SHIFT CAN HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
GOING WITH THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT
INDEPENDENCE DAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT EVEN IF IT
DOES RAIN AT SOME POINT. BUT IT IS WORTH COMING BACK TO CHECK
FUTURE FORECASTS AS THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON THIS FORECAST CAN
SEEMINGLY ONLY GO UP FROM HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING KEEPING THE CHANCE OF A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AROUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BERMUDA HIGH THEN EXPANDS
TO ENVELOPE THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF
NOTE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY
WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING BUT SURFACE HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH EACH
DAY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY BUT QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAKES IT PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN EACH DAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY THE
CEILING AND VISIBILITY MAY NOT BE IMPACTED MUCH.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...NO CONCERNS. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS
THE REGION THIS COMING WEEK BUT NONE ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISTURB
THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

KIMBLE/HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 031130
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
730 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
730AM UPDATE...
SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY WITH THIS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXITING TO THE EAST. BENEATH THE SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS WARMER
AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS WHILE SOME LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AS WELL. A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS FAR TONIGHT AS THEY DID
LAST NIGHT. 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 40S IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS.

INDEPENDENCE DAY IS A UNIQUE HOLIDAY IN THAT IT IS ONE IN WHICH
THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TIED TO THE HOLIDAY.
THE FOURTH OF JULY OCCURS ON A SATURDAY ONLY ONCE EVERY 5 OR 6
YEARS. WITH THE HOLIDAY OCCURRING ON A SATURDAY THIS YEAR... IT
CAN BE ASSUMED THAT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE PARTICULARLY
IMPORTANT TO MANY PEOPLE.

A HANDFUL OF DAYS A YEAR THE FORECAST MODELS LEAD FORECASTERS IN
ONE FORECAST DIRECTION FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND THEN SUDDENLY SHIFT
WITHIN THE FINAL DAY OR TWO TO BRING A SURPRISE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. WHILE THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN ALL THAT OFTEN... IT CAN BE A
PARTICULAR PAIN FOR FORECASTERS WHO PRIDE THEMSELVES ON TRYING TO
PRODUCE A HIGH QUALITY AND CONSISTENT FORECAST THAT USERS CAN RELY
ON FROM DAY TO DAY.

UNFORTUNATELY... MODEL FORECASTS HAVE SUDDENLY SHIFTED JUST IN
TIME FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. THE TIMING OF THIS COULD NOT BE MUCH
WORSE. WHILE FOR MANY DAYS FORECASTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY CALLED FOR
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY... THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
HAS INCREASINGLY BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND... LEADING TO A DRY INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. THIS DRY
FORECAST HAS NOW COME INTO QUESTION. EACH OF THE MAJOR MODELS NOW
FORECAST RAIN FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY... MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND POTENTIALLY
INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE.

THE NAM IS INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT ASSOCIATED
DIRECTLY WITH THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW... AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT TO COMPLETELY RUIN MOST OUTDOOR
EVENTS. THE GFS USES THIS MID LEVEL LIFT TO NOW DEVELOP A MORE
ROBUST SURFACE LOW AND TRACK IT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD THEN DEVELOP
WOULD SPREAD THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS AND UP INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE. THIS WOULD BE A
LITTLE HEAVIER RAIN BUT STILL MAYBE NOT A COMPLETE WASH OUT. FOR
ITS PART THE ECMWF GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE GFS THOUGH THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE AND LESS OVERALL QPF. THE CMC ALSO
DEVELOPS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BUT KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH
OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? THERE IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. WHEN THE MAV
AND MET BOTH SUGGEST 70 TO 80 POP IT IS USUALLY TOUGH TO ARGUE
WITH. BUT CONSIDERING THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WHICH HAS SHOWN SUCH A
HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION... IT HAS BEEN DECIDED THAT IT WOULD
BE BETTER TO RAISE THE POP A LITTLE BIT AND WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THIS NEW SOLUTION BEFORE JUMPING FULLY
ON BOARD WITH IT. FOR NOW... WILL GO WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LIKELY RAIN EVENT ON
SATURDAY... THE NEXT FORECAST SHIFT CAN HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
GOING WITH THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT
INDEPENDENCE DAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT EVEN IF IT
DOES RAIN AT SOME POINT. BUT IT IS WORTH COMING BACK TO CHECK
FUTURE FORECASTS AS THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON THIS FORECAST CAN
SEEMINGLY ONLY GO UP FROM HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING KEEPING THE CHANCE OF A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AROUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BERMUDA HIGH THEN EXPANDS
TO ENVELOPE THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF
NOTE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY
WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING BUT SURFACE HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH EACH
DAY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY BUT QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAKES IT PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN EACH DAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY THE
CEILING AND VISIBILITY MAY NOT BE IMPACTED MUCH.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...NO CONCERNS. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS
THE REGION THIS COMING WEEK BUT NONE ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISTURB
THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

KIMBLE/HANES



000
FXUS61 KBOX 031121
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
721 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. BIG CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY RAINFALL
WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS
WITH WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
WITH THE LAST OF THE REMAINING -SHRA MOVING E OF ACK...ADJUSTED
POPS DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OTHER UPDATES WERE MAINLY
TO TEMPS...IN ESSENCE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND A SLIGHT W COMPONENT TO THE FLOW /AWAY FROM SEA
BREEZES OF COURSE/ SUGGEST HIGHS MAY OVER-PERFORM A LITTLE BIT.
HENCE THE SLIGHT UPWARD SHIFT WITH THIS UPDATE.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT...
SO LIGHT WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS LATE
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WEATHER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER WAVE ALONG A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...
HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE CHARGE LEAD BY PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS...HAS BEEN TAKEN UP BY THE REST OF THE 03/00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED THE PROJECTED TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST...WITH THE
SLOWEST TIMING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...AS THE DETAILS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT MURKY.

DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SHIFT AMONG ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS...
DECIDED TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST WETTER...RATHER THAN GOING WITH
THE WASHOUT FROM PRIOR RUNS OF THE GFS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A
WINTER-TIME SETUP...WENT WITH RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERS. THAT
SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STAY TUNED FOR MORE POTENTIAL CHANGES
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL
GFS REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS OVERAMPLIFCATION CONTINUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS
WITH THIS LONG TERM UPDATE AND APPLYING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS
AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NE...AS DEEPENING CUTOFF ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE/DRY WX PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...IT IS A MATTER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CUTOFF.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE E SHIFT IN THE CUTOFF...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A LONGER UNSETTLED PERIOD. WHILE OTHERS ARE FURTHER
W...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF.  IN ANY CASE...COOLER AND MORE PERIODIC WET
WX IS POSSIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLY WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SFC FEATURES TO WATCH.
THE FIRST...SAT NIGHT IS AN OCEAN LOW PRES WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE
WHICH...COULD LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS. THE SECOND IS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN. IN EITHER CASE...OVERALL PWATS
IN THE COLUMN ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WITH IN THE LOWEST 300HPA. IN EITHER CASE...AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS LIKELY TO BE MOST RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. H85 TEMPS
NEAR +10C SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS ON SUN REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

MON INTO TUE...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING OVER FROM THE
W...COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT HIGH PRES AND DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THEE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY. H85 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +15C BY TUE.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S WILL BE FORECAST.

WED...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE STRONG
CUTOFF WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...COOLING H5 TEMPS AND LEFTOVER WARM/MOIST LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST DECREASING STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH THE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU AND FRI...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE UPPER CUTOFF GETS TO THE NE CONUS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
EXACTLY HOW MANY WAVE/HOW STRONG AND WHEN THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE TO
BE BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS AND BECOMES BETTER
SAMPLED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.  SEA BREEZES DEVELOP BETWEEN 14Z-16Z.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS S OF THE MASS PIKE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SE MA/RI
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END.  ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MON INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO NE AS LOW PRES MOVES E OF THE WATERS.  WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 20-25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEAS ON THE
WATERS S AND SE OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN TO DECLINE FROM 5-7 FT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S...AND WHILE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 031121
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
721 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. BIG CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY RAINFALL
WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS
WITH WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
WITH THE LAST OF THE REMAINING -SHRA MOVING E OF ACK...ADJUSTED
POPS DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OTHER UPDATES WERE MAINLY
TO TEMPS...IN ESSENCE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND A SLIGHT W COMPONENT TO THE FLOW /AWAY FROM SEA
BREEZES OF COURSE/ SUGGEST HIGHS MAY OVER-PERFORM A LITTLE BIT.
HENCE THE SLIGHT UPWARD SHIFT WITH THIS UPDATE.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT...
SO LIGHT WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS LATE
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WEATHER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER WAVE ALONG A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...
HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE CHARGE LEAD BY PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS...HAS BEEN TAKEN UP BY THE REST OF THE 03/00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED THE PROJECTED TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST...WITH THE
SLOWEST TIMING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...AS THE DETAILS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT MURKY.

DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SHIFT AMONG ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS...
DECIDED TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST WETTER...RATHER THAN GOING WITH
THE WASHOUT FROM PRIOR RUNS OF THE GFS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A
WINTER-TIME SETUP...WENT WITH RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERS. THAT
SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STAY TUNED FOR MORE POTENTIAL CHANGES
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL
GFS REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS OVERAMPLIFCATION CONTINUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS
WITH THIS LONG TERM UPDATE AND APPLYING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS
AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NE...AS DEEPENING CUTOFF ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE/DRY WX PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...IT IS A MATTER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CUTOFF.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE E SHIFT IN THE CUTOFF...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A LONGER UNSETTLED PERIOD. WHILE OTHERS ARE FURTHER
W...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF.  IN ANY CASE...COOLER AND MORE PERIODIC WET
WX IS POSSIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLY WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SFC FEATURES TO WATCH.
THE FIRST...SAT NIGHT IS AN OCEAN LOW PRES WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE
WHICH...COULD LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS. THE SECOND IS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN. IN EITHER CASE...OVERALL PWATS
IN THE COLUMN ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WITH IN THE LOWEST 300HPA. IN EITHER CASE...AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS LIKELY TO BE MOST RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. H85 TEMPS
NEAR +10C SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS ON SUN REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

MON INTO TUE...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING OVER FROM THE
W...COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT HIGH PRES AND DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THEE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY. H85 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +15C BY TUE.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S WILL BE FORECAST.

WED...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE STRONG
CUTOFF WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...COOLING H5 TEMPS AND LEFTOVER WARM/MOIST LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST DECREASING STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH THE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU AND FRI...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE UPPER CUTOFF GETS TO THE NE CONUS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
EXACTLY HOW MANY WAVE/HOW STRONG AND WHEN THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE TO
BE BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS AND BECOMES BETTER
SAMPLED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.  SEA BREEZES DEVELOP BETWEEN 14Z-16Z.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS S OF THE MASS PIKE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SE MA/RI
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END.  ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MON INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO NE AS LOW PRES MOVES E OF THE WATERS.  WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 20-25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEAS ON THE
WATERS S AND SE OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN TO DECLINE FROM 5-7 FT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S...AND WHILE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 031121
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
721 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. BIG CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY RAINFALL
WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS
WITH WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
WITH THE LAST OF THE REMAINING -SHRA MOVING E OF ACK...ADJUSTED
POPS DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OTHER UPDATES WERE MAINLY
TO TEMPS...IN ESSENCE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND A SLIGHT W COMPONENT TO THE FLOW /AWAY FROM SEA
BREEZES OF COURSE/ SUGGEST HIGHS MAY OVER-PERFORM A LITTLE BIT.
HENCE THE SLIGHT UPWARD SHIFT WITH THIS UPDATE.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT...
SO LIGHT WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS LATE
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WEATHER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER WAVE ALONG A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...
HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE CHARGE LEAD BY PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS...HAS BEEN TAKEN UP BY THE REST OF THE 03/00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED THE PROJECTED TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST...WITH THE
SLOWEST TIMING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...AS THE DETAILS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT MURKY.

DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SHIFT AMONG ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS...
DECIDED TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST WETTER...RATHER THAN GOING WITH
THE WASHOUT FROM PRIOR RUNS OF THE GFS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A
WINTER-TIME SETUP...WENT WITH RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERS. THAT
SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STAY TUNED FOR MORE POTENTIAL CHANGES
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL
GFS REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS OVERAMPLIFCATION CONTINUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS
WITH THIS LONG TERM UPDATE AND APPLYING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS
AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NE...AS DEEPENING CUTOFF ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE/DRY WX PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...IT IS A MATTER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CUTOFF.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE E SHIFT IN THE CUTOFF...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A LONGER UNSETTLED PERIOD. WHILE OTHERS ARE FURTHER
W...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF.  IN ANY CASE...COOLER AND MORE PERIODIC WET
WX IS POSSIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLY WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SFC FEATURES TO WATCH.
THE FIRST...SAT NIGHT IS AN OCEAN LOW PRES WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE
WHICH...COULD LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS. THE SECOND IS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN. IN EITHER CASE...OVERALL PWATS
IN THE COLUMN ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WITH IN THE LOWEST 300HPA. IN EITHER CASE...AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS LIKELY TO BE MOST RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. H85 TEMPS
NEAR +10C SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS ON SUN REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

MON INTO TUE...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING OVER FROM THE
W...COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT HIGH PRES AND DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THEE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY. H85 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +15C BY TUE.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S WILL BE FORECAST.

WED...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE STRONG
CUTOFF WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...COOLING H5 TEMPS AND LEFTOVER WARM/MOIST LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST DECREASING STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH THE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU AND FRI...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE UPPER CUTOFF GETS TO THE NE CONUS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
EXACTLY HOW MANY WAVE/HOW STRONG AND WHEN THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE TO
BE BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS AND BECOMES BETTER
SAMPLED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.  SEA BREEZES DEVELOP BETWEEN 14Z-16Z.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS S OF THE MASS PIKE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SE MA/RI
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END.  ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MON INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO NE AS LOW PRES MOVES E OF THE WATERS.  WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 20-25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEAS ON THE
WATERS S AND SE OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN TO DECLINE FROM 5-7 FT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S...AND WHILE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 031121
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
721 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. BIG CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY RAINFALL
WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS
WITH WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
WITH THE LAST OF THE REMAINING -SHRA MOVING E OF ACK...ADJUSTED
POPS DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OTHER UPDATES WERE MAINLY
TO TEMPS...IN ESSENCE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND A SLIGHT W COMPONENT TO THE FLOW /AWAY FROM SEA
BREEZES OF COURSE/ SUGGEST HIGHS MAY OVER-PERFORM A LITTLE BIT.
HENCE THE SLIGHT UPWARD SHIFT WITH THIS UPDATE.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT...
SO LIGHT WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS LATE
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WEATHER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER WAVE ALONG A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...
HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE CHARGE LEAD BY PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS...HAS BEEN TAKEN UP BY THE REST OF THE 03/00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED THE PROJECTED TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST...WITH THE
SLOWEST TIMING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...AS THE DETAILS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT MURKY.

DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SHIFT AMONG ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS...
DECIDED TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST WETTER...RATHER THAN GOING WITH
THE WASHOUT FROM PRIOR RUNS OF THE GFS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A
WINTER-TIME SETUP...WENT WITH RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERS. THAT
SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STAY TUNED FOR MORE POTENTIAL CHANGES
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL
GFS REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS OVERAMPLIFCATION CONTINUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS
WITH THIS LONG TERM UPDATE AND APPLYING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS
AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NE...AS DEEPENING CUTOFF ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE/DRY WX PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...IT IS A MATTER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CUTOFF.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE E SHIFT IN THE CUTOFF...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A LONGER UNSETTLED PERIOD. WHILE OTHERS ARE FURTHER
W...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF.  IN ANY CASE...COOLER AND MORE PERIODIC WET
WX IS POSSIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLY WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SFC FEATURES TO WATCH.
THE FIRST...SAT NIGHT IS AN OCEAN LOW PRES WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE
WHICH...COULD LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS. THE SECOND IS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN. IN EITHER CASE...OVERALL PWATS
IN THE COLUMN ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WITH IN THE LOWEST 300HPA. IN EITHER CASE...AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS LIKELY TO BE MOST RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. H85 TEMPS
NEAR +10C SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS ON SUN REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

MON INTO TUE...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING OVER FROM THE
W...COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT HIGH PRES AND DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THEE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY. H85 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +15C BY TUE.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S WILL BE FORECAST.

WED...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE STRONG
CUTOFF WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...COOLING H5 TEMPS AND LEFTOVER WARM/MOIST LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST DECREASING STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH THE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU AND FRI...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE UPPER CUTOFF GETS TO THE NE CONUS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
EXACTLY HOW MANY WAVE/HOW STRONG AND WHEN THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE TO
BE BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS AND BECOMES BETTER
SAMPLED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.  SEA BREEZES DEVELOP BETWEEN 14Z-16Z.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS S OF THE MASS PIKE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SE MA/RI
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END.  ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MON INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO NE AS LOW PRES MOVES E OF THE WATERS.  WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 20-25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEAS ON THE
WATERS S AND SE OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN TO DECLINE FROM 5-7 FT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S...AND WHILE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 031121
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
721 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. BIG CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY RAINFALL
WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS
WITH WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
WITH THE LAST OF THE REMAINING -SHRA MOVING E OF ACK...ADJUSTED
POPS DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OTHER UPDATES WERE MAINLY
TO TEMPS...IN ESSENCE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND A SLIGHT W COMPONENT TO THE FLOW /AWAY FROM SEA
BREEZES OF COURSE/ SUGGEST HIGHS MAY OVER-PERFORM A LITTLE BIT.
HENCE THE SLIGHT UPWARD SHIFT WITH THIS UPDATE.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT...
SO LIGHT WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS LATE
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WEATHER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER WAVE ALONG A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...
HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE CHARGE LEAD BY PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS...HAS BEEN TAKEN UP BY THE REST OF THE 03/00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED THE PROJECTED TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST...WITH THE
SLOWEST TIMING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...AS THE DETAILS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT MURKY.

DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SHIFT AMONG ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS...
DECIDED TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST WETTER...RATHER THAN GOING WITH
THE WASHOUT FROM PRIOR RUNS OF THE GFS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A
WINTER-TIME SETUP...WENT WITH RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERS. THAT
SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STAY TUNED FOR MORE POTENTIAL CHANGES
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL
GFS REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS OVERAMPLIFCATION CONTINUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS
WITH THIS LONG TERM UPDATE AND APPLYING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS
AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NE...AS DEEPENING CUTOFF ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE/DRY WX PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...IT IS A MATTER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CUTOFF.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE E SHIFT IN THE CUTOFF...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A LONGER UNSETTLED PERIOD. WHILE OTHERS ARE FURTHER
W...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF.  IN ANY CASE...COOLER AND MORE PERIODIC WET
WX IS POSSIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLY WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SFC FEATURES TO WATCH.
THE FIRST...SAT NIGHT IS AN OCEAN LOW PRES WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE
WHICH...COULD LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS. THE SECOND IS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN. IN EITHER CASE...OVERALL PWATS
IN THE COLUMN ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WITH IN THE LOWEST 300HPA. IN EITHER CASE...AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS LIKELY TO BE MOST RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. H85 TEMPS
NEAR +10C SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS ON SUN REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

MON INTO TUE...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING OVER FROM THE
W...COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT HIGH PRES AND DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THEE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY. H85 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +15C BY TUE.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S WILL BE FORECAST.

WED...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE STRONG
CUTOFF WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...COOLING H5 TEMPS AND LEFTOVER WARM/MOIST LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST DECREASING STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH THE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU AND FRI...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE UPPER CUTOFF GETS TO THE NE CONUS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
EXACTLY HOW MANY WAVE/HOW STRONG AND WHEN THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE TO
BE BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS AND BECOMES BETTER
SAMPLED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.  SEA BREEZES DEVELOP BETWEEN 14Z-16Z.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS S OF THE MASS PIKE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SE MA/RI
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END.  ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MON INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO NE AS LOW PRES MOVES E OF THE WATERS.  WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 20-25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEAS ON THE
WATERS S AND SE OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN TO DECLINE FROM 5-7 FT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S...AND WHILE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 031121
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
721 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. BIG CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY RAINFALL
WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS
WITH WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
WITH THE LAST OF THE REMAINING -SHRA MOVING E OF ACK...ADJUSTED
POPS DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OTHER UPDATES WERE MAINLY
TO TEMPS...IN ESSENCE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND A SLIGHT W COMPONENT TO THE FLOW /AWAY FROM SEA
BREEZES OF COURSE/ SUGGEST HIGHS MAY OVER-PERFORM A LITTLE BIT.
HENCE THE SLIGHT UPWARD SHIFT WITH THIS UPDATE.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT...
SO LIGHT WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS LATE
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WEATHER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER WAVE ALONG A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...
HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE CHARGE LEAD BY PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS...HAS BEEN TAKEN UP BY THE REST OF THE 03/00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED THE PROJECTED TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST...WITH THE
SLOWEST TIMING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...AS THE DETAILS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT MURKY.

DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SHIFT AMONG ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS...
DECIDED TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST WETTER...RATHER THAN GOING WITH
THE WASHOUT FROM PRIOR RUNS OF THE GFS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A
WINTER-TIME SETUP...WENT WITH RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERS. THAT
SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STAY TUNED FOR MORE POTENTIAL CHANGES
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL
GFS REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS OVERAMPLIFCATION CONTINUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS
WITH THIS LONG TERM UPDATE AND APPLYING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS
AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NE...AS DEEPENING CUTOFF ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE/DRY WX PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...IT IS A MATTER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CUTOFF.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE E SHIFT IN THE CUTOFF...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A LONGER UNSETTLED PERIOD. WHILE OTHERS ARE FURTHER
W...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF.  IN ANY CASE...COOLER AND MORE PERIODIC WET
WX IS POSSIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLY WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SFC FEATURES TO WATCH.
THE FIRST...SAT NIGHT IS AN OCEAN LOW PRES WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE
WHICH...COULD LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS. THE SECOND IS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN. IN EITHER CASE...OVERALL PWATS
IN THE COLUMN ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WITH IN THE LOWEST 300HPA. IN EITHER CASE...AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS LIKELY TO BE MOST RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. H85 TEMPS
NEAR +10C SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS ON SUN REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

MON INTO TUE...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING OVER FROM THE
W...COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT HIGH PRES AND DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THEE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY. H85 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +15C BY TUE.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S WILL BE FORECAST.

WED...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE STRONG
CUTOFF WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...COOLING H5 TEMPS AND LEFTOVER WARM/MOIST LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST DECREASING STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH THE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU AND FRI...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE UPPER CUTOFF GETS TO THE NE CONUS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
EXACTLY HOW MANY WAVE/HOW STRONG AND WHEN THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE TO
BE BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS AND BECOMES BETTER
SAMPLED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.  SEA BREEZES DEVELOP BETWEEN 14Z-16Z.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS S OF THE MASS PIKE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SE MA/RI
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END.  ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MON INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO NE AS LOW PRES MOVES E OF THE WATERS.  WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 20-25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEAS ON THE
WATERS S AND SE OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN TO DECLINE FROM 5-7 FT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S...AND WHILE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 030835
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
435 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. BIG CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY RAINFALL
WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS
WITH WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT...
SO LIGHT WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS LATE
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WEATHER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER WAVE ALONG A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...
HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE CHARGE LEAD BY PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS...HAS BEEN TAKEN UP BY THE REST OF THE 03/00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED THE PROJECTED TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST...WITH THE
SLOWEST TIMING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...AS THE DETAILS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT MURKY.

DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SHIFT AMONG ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS...
DECIDED TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST WETTER...RATHER THAN GOING WITH
THE WASHOUT FROM PRIOR RUNS OF THE GFS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A
WINTER-TIME SETUP...WENT WITH RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERS. THAT
SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STAY TUNED FOR MORE POTENTIAL CHANGES
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL
GFS REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS OVERAMPLIFCATION CONTINUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS
WITH THIS LONG TERM UPDATE AND APPLYING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS
AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NE...AS DEEPENING CUTOFF ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE/DRY WX PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...IT IS A MATTER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CUTOFF.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE E SHIFT IN THE CUTOFF...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A LONGER UNSETTLED PERIOD. WHILE OTHERS ARE FURTHER
W...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF.  IN ANY CASE...COOLER AND MORE PERIODIC WET
WX IS POSSIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLY WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SFC FEATURES TO WATCH.
THE FIRST...SAT NIGHT IS AN OCEAN LOW PRES WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE
WHICH...COULD LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS. THE SECOND IS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN. IN EITHER CASE...OVERALL PWATS
IN THE COLUMN ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WITH IN THE LOWEST 300HPA. IN EITHER CASE...AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS LIKELY TO BE MOST RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. H85 TEMPS
NEAR +10C SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS ON SUN REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

MON INTO TUE...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING OVER FROM THE
W...COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT HIGH PRES AND DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THEE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY. H85 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +15C BY TUE.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S WILL BE FORECAST.

WED...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE STRONG
CUTOFF WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...COOLING H5 TEMPS AND LEFTOVER WARM/MOIST LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST DECREASING STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH THE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU AND FRI...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE UPPER CUTOFF GETS TO THE NE CONUS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
EXACTLY HOW MANY WAVE/HOW STRONG AND WHEN THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE TO
BE BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS AND BECOMES BETTER
SAMPLED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SE MA/RI
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END.  ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MON INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO NE AS LOW PRES MOVES E OF THE WATERS.  WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 20-25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEAS ON THE
WATERS S AND SE OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN TO DECLINE FROM 5-7 FT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S...AND WHILE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 030835
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
435 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. BIG CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY RAINFALL
WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS
WITH WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT...
SO LIGHT WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS LATE
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WEATHER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER WAVE ALONG A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...
HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE CHARGE LEAD BY PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS...HAS BEEN TAKEN UP BY THE REST OF THE 03/00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED THE PROJECTED TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST...WITH THE
SLOWEST TIMING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...AS THE DETAILS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT MURKY.

DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SHIFT AMONG ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS...
DECIDED TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST WETTER...RATHER THAN GOING WITH
THE WASHOUT FROM PRIOR RUNS OF THE GFS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A
WINTER-TIME SETUP...WENT WITH RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERS. THAT
SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STAY TUNED FOR MORE POTENTIAL CHANGES
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL
GFS REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS OVERAMPLIFCATION CONTINUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS
WITH THIS LONG TERM UPDATE AND APPLYING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS
AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NE...AS DEEPENING CUTOFF ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE/DRY WX PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...IT IS A MATTER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CUTOFF.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE E SHIFT IN THE CUTOFF...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A LONGER UNSETTLED PERIOD. WHILE OTHERS ARE FURTHER
W...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF.  IN ANY CASE...COOLER AND MORE PERIODIC WET
WX IS POSSIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLY WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SFC FEATURES TO WATCH.
THE FIRST...SAT NIGHT IS AN OCEAN LOW PRES WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE
WHICH...COULD LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS. THE SECOND IS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN. IN EITHER CASE...OVERALL PWATS
IN THE COLUMN ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WITH IN THE LOWEST 300HPA. IN EITHER CASE...AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS LIKELY TO BE MOST RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. H85 TEMPS
NEAR +10C SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS ON SUN REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

MON INTO TUE...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING OVER FROM THE
W...COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT HIGH PRES AND DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THEE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY. H85 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +15C BY TUE.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S WILL BE FORECAST.

WED...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE STRONG
CUTOFF WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...COOLING H5 TEMPS AND LEFTOVER WARM/MOIST LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST DECREASING STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH THE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU AND FRI...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE UPPER CUTOFF GETS TO THE NE CONUS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
EXACTLY HOW MANY WAVE/HOW STRONG AND WHEN THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE TO
BE BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS AND BECOMES BETTER
SAMPLED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SE MA/RI
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END.  ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MON INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO NE AS LOW PRES MOVES E OF THE WATERS.  WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 20-25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEAS ON THE
WATERS S AND SE OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN TO DECLINE FROM 5-7 FT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S...AND WHILE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 030835
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
435 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. BIG CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY RAINFALL
WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS
WITH WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT...
SO LIGHT WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS LATE
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WEATHER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER WAVE ALONG A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...
HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE CHARGE LEAD BY PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS...HAS BEEN TAKEN UP BY THE REST OF THE 03/00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED THE PROJECTED TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST...WITH THE
SLOWEST TIMING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...AS THE DETAILS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT MURKY.

DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SHIFT AMONG ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS...
DECIDED TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST WETTER...RATHER THAN GOING WITH
THE WASHOUT FROM PRIOR RUNS OF THE GFS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A
WINTER-TIME SETUP...WENT WITH RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERS. THAT
SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STAY TUNED FOR MORE POTENTIAL CHANGES
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL
GFS REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS OVERAMPLIFCATION CONTINUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS
WITH THIS LONG TERM UPDATE AND APPLYING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS
AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NE...AS DEEPENING CUTOFF ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE/DRY WX PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...IT IS A MATTER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CUTOFF.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE E SHIFT IN THE CUTOFF...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A LONGER UNSETTLED PERIOD. WHILE OTHERS ARE FURTHER
W...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF.  IN ANY CASE...COOLER AND MORE PERIODIC WET
WX IS POSSIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLY WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SFC FEATURES TO WATCH.
THE FIRST...SAT NIGHT IS AN OCEAN LOW PRES WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE
WHICH...COULD LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS. THE SECOND IS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN. IN EITHER CASE...OVERALL PWATS
IN THE COLUMN ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WITH IN THE LOWEST 300HPA. IN EITHER CASE...AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS LIKELY TO BE MOST RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. H85 TEMPS
NEAR +10C SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS ON SUN REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

MON INTO TUE...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING OVER FROM THE
W...COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT HIGH PRES AND DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THEE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY. H85 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +15C BY TUE.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S WILL BE FORECAST.

WED...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE STRONG
CUTOFF WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...COOLING H5 TEMPS AND LEFTOVER WARM/MOIST LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST DECREASING STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH THE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU AND FRI...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE UPPER CUTOFF GETS TO THE NE CONUS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
EXACTLY HOW MANY WAVE/HOW STRONG AND WHEN THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE TO
BE BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS AND BECOMES BETTER
SAMPLED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SE MA/RI
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END.  ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MON INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO NE AS LOW PRES MOVES E OF THE WATERS.  WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 20-25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEAS ON THE
WATERS S AND SE OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN TO DECLINE FROM 5-7 FT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S...AND WHILE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 030835
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
435 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. BIG CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY RAINFALL
WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS
WITH WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT...
SO LIGHT WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS LATE
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WEATHER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER WAVE ALONG A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...
HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE CHARGE LEAD BY PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS...HAS BEEN TAKEN UP BY THE REST OF THE 03/00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED THE PROJECTED TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST...WITH THE
SLOWEST TIMING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...AS THE DETAILS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT MURKY.

DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SHIFT AMONG ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS...
DECIDED TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST WETTER...RATHER THAN GOING WITH
THE WASHOUT FROM PRIOR RUNS OF THE GFS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A
WINTER-TIME SETUP...WENT WITH RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERS. THAT
SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STAY TUNED FOR MORE POTENTIAL CHANGES
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL
GFS REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS OVERAMPLIFCATION CONTINUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS
WITH THIS LONG TERM UPDATE AND APPLYING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS
AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NE...AS DEEPENING CUTOFF ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE/DRY WX PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...IT IS A MATTER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CUTOFF.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE E SHIFT IN THE CUTOFF...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A LONGER UNSETTLED PERIOD. WHILE OTHERS ARE FURTHER
W...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF.  IN ANY CASE...COOLER AND MORE PERIODIC WET
WX IS POSSIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLY WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SFC FEATURES TO WATCH.
THE FIRST...SAT NIGHT IS AN OCEAN LOW PRES WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE
WHICH...COULD LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS. THE SECOND IS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN. IN EITHER CASE...OVERALL PWATS
IN THE COLUMN ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WITH IN THE LOWEST 300HPA. IN EITHER CASE...AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS LIKELY TO BE MOST RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. H85 TEMPS
NEAR +10C SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS ON SUN REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

MON INTO TUE...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING OVER FROM THE
W...COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT HIGH PRES AND DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THEE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY. H85 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +15C BY TUE.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S WILL BE FORECAST.

WED...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE STRONG
CUTOFF WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...COOLING H5 TEMPS AND LEFTOVER WARM/MOIST LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST DECREASING STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH THE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU AND FRI...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE UPPER CUTOFF GETS TO THE NE CONUS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
EXACTLY HOW MANY WAVE/HOW STRONG AND WHEN THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE TO
BE BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS AND BECOMES BETTER
SAMPLED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SE MA/RI
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END.  ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MON INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO NE AS LOW PRES MOVES E OF THE WATERS.  WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 20-25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEAS ON THE
WATERS S AND SE OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN TO DECLINE FROM 5-7 FT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S...AND WHILE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KGYX 030735
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
335 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXITING TO THE EAST. BENEATH THE SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS WARMER
AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS WHILE SOME LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AS WELL. A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS FAR TONIGHT AS THEY DID
LAST NIGHT. 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 40S IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS.

INDEPENDENCE DAY IS A UNIQUE HOLIDAY IN THAT IT IS ONE IN WHICH
THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TIED TO THE HOLIDAY.
THE FOURTH OF JULY OCCURS ON A SATURDAY ONLY ONCE EVERY 5 OR 6
YEARS. WITH THE HOLIDAY OCCURRING ON A SATURDAY THIS YEAR... IT
CAN BE ASSUMED THAT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE PARTICULARLY
IMPORTANT TO MANY PEOPLE.

A HANDFUL OF DAYS A YEAR THE FORECAST MODELS LEAD FORECASTERS IN
ONE FORECAST DIRECTION FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND THEN SUDDENLY SHIFT
WITHIN THE FINAL DAY OR TWO TO BRING A SURPRISE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. WHILE THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN ALL THAT OFTEN... IT CAN BE A
PARTICULAR PAIN FOR FORECASTERS WHO PRIDE THEMSELVES ON TRYING TO
PRODUCE A HIGH QUALITY AND CONSISTENT FORECAST THAT USERS CAN RELY
ON FROM DAY TO DAY.

UNFORTUNATELY... MODEL FORECASTS HAVE SUDDENLY SHIFTED JUST IN
TIME FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. THE TIMING OF THIS COULD NOT BE MUCH
WORSE. WHILE FOR MANY DAYS FORECASTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY CALLED FOR
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY... THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
HAS INCREASINGLY BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND... LEADING TO A DRY INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. THIS DRY
FORECAST HAS NOW COME INTO QUESTION. EACH OF THE MAJOR MODELS NOW
FORECAST RAIN FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY... MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND POTENTIALLY
INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE.

THE NAM IS INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT ASSOCIATED
DIRECTLY WITH THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW... AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT TO COMPLETELY RUIN MOST OUTDOOR
EVENTS. THE GFS USES THIS MID LEVEL LIFT TO NOW DEVELOP A MORE
ROBUST SURFACE LOW AND TRACK IT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD THEN DEVELOP
WOULD SPREAD THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS AND UP INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE. THIS WOULD BE A
LITTLE HEAVIER RAIN BUT STILL MAYBE NOT A COMPLETE WASH OUT. FOR
ITS PART THE ECMWF GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE GFS THOUGH THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE AND LESS OVERALL QPF. THE CMC ALSO
DEVELOPS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BUT KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH
OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? THERE IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. WHEN THE MAV
AND MET BOTH SUGGEST 70 TO 80 POP IT IS USUALLY TOUGH TO ARGUE
WITH. BUT CONSIDERING THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WHICH HAS SHOWN SUCH A
HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION... IT HAS BEEN DECIDED THAT IT WOULD
BE BETTER TO RAISE THE POP A LITTLE BIT AND WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THIS NEW SOLUTION BEFORE JUMPING FULLY
ON BOARD WITH IT. FOR NOW... WILL GO WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LIKELY RAIN EVENT ON
SATURDAY... THE NEXT FORECAST SHIFT CAN HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
GOING WITH THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT
INDEPENDENCE DAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT EVEN IF IT
DOES RAIN AT SOME POINT. BUT IT IS WORTH COMING BACK TO CHECK
FUTURE FORECASTS AS THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON THIS FORECAST CAN
SEEMINGLY ONLY GO UP FROM HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING KEEPING THE CHANCE OF A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AROUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BERMUDA HIGH THEN EXPANDS
TO ENVELOPE THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF
NOTE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY
WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING BUT SURFACE HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH EACH
DAY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY BUT QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAKES IT PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN EACH DAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY THE
CEILING AND VISIBILITY MAY NOT BE IMPACTED MUCH.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...NO CONCERNS. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS
THE REGION THIS COMING WEEK BUT NONE ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISTURB
THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

KIMBLE/HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 030735
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
335 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXITING TO THE EAST. BENEATH THE SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS WARMER
AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS WHILE SOME LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AS WELL. A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS FAR TONIGHT AS THEY DID
LAST NIGHT. 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 40S IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS.

INDEPENDENCE DAY IS A UNIQUE HOLIDAY IN THAT IT IS ONE IN WHICH
THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TIED TO THE HOLIDAY.
THE FOURTH OF JULY OCCURS ON A SATURDAY ONLY ONCE EVERY 5 OR 6
YEARS. WITH THE HOLIDAY OCCURRING ON A SATURDAY THIS YEAR... IT
CAN BE ASSUMED THAT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE PARTICULARLY
IMPORTANT TO MANY PEOPLE.

A HANDFUL OF DAYS A YEAR THE FORECAST MODELS LEAD FORECASTERS IN
ONE FORECAST DIRECTION FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND THEN SUDDENLY SHIFT
WITHIN THE FINAL DAY OR TWO TO BRING A SURPRISE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. WHILE THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN ALL THAT OFTEN... IT CAN BE A
PARTICULAR PAIN FOR FORECASTERS WHO PRIDE THEMSELVES ON TRYING TO
PRODUCE A HIGH QUALITY AND CONSISTENT FORECAST THAT USERS CAN RELY
ON FROM DAY TO DAY.

UNFORTUNATELY... MODEL FORECASTS HAVE SUDDENLY SHIFTED JUST IN
TIME FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. THE TIMING OF THIS COULD NOT BE MUCH
WORSE. WHILE FOR MANY DAYS FORECASTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY CALLED FOR
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY... THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
HAS INCREASINGLY BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND... LEADING TO A DRY INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. THIS DRY
FORECAST HAS NOW COME INTO QUESTION. EACH OF THE MAJOR MODELS NOW
FORECAST RAIN FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY... MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND POTENTIALLY
INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE.

THE NAM IS INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT ASSOCIATED
DIRECTLY WITH THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW... AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT TO COMPLETELY RUIN MOST OUTDOOR
EVENTS. THE GFS USES THIS MID LEVEL LIFT TO NOW DEVELOP A MORE
ROBUST SURFACE LOW AND TRACK IT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD THEN DEVELOP
WOULD SPREAD THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS AND UP INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE. THIS WOULD BE A
LITTLE HEAVIER RAIN BUT STILL MAYBE NOT A COMPLETE WASH OUT. FOR
ITS PART THE ECMWF GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE GFS THOUGH THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE AND LESS OVERALL QPF. THE CMC ALSO
DEVELOPS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BUT KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH
OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? THERE IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. WHEN THE MAV
AND MET BOTH SUGGEST 70 TO 80 POP IT IS USUALLY TOUGH TO ARGUE
WITH. BUT CONSIDERING THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WHICH HAS SHOWN SUCH A
HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION... IT HAS BEEN DECIDED THAT IT WOULD
BE BETTER TO RAISE THE POP A LITTLE BIT AND WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THIS NEW SOLUTION BEFORE JUMPING FULLY
ON BOARD WITH IT. FOR NOW... WILL GO WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LIKELY RAIN EVENT ON
SATURDAY... THE NEXT FORECAST SHIFT CAN HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
GOING WITH THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT
INDEPENDENCE DAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT EVEN IF IT
DOES RAIN AT SOME POINT. BUT IT IS WORTH COMING BACK TO CHECK
FUTURE FORECASTS AS THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON THIS FORECAST CAN
SEEMINGLY ONLY GO UP FROM HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING KEEPING THE CHANCE OF A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AROUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BERMUDA HIGH THEN EXPANDS
TO ENVELOPE THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF
NOTE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY
WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING BUT SURFACE HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH EACH
DAY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY BUT QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAKES IT PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN EACH DAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY THE
CEILING AND VISIBILITY MAY NOT BE IMPACTED MUCH.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...NO CONCERNS. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS
THE REGION THIS COMING WEEK BUT NONE ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISTURB
THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

KIMBLE/HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 030735
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
335 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXITING TO THE EAST. BENEATH THE SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS WARMER
AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS WHILE SOME LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AS WELL. A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS FAR TONIGHT AS THEY DID
LAST NIGHT. 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 40S IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS.

INDEPENDENCE DAY IS A UNIQUE HOLIDAY IN THAT IT IS ONE IN WHICH
THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TIED TO THE HOLIDAY.
THE FOURTH OF JULY OCCURS ON A SATURDAY ONLY ONCE EVERY 5 OR 6
YEARS. WITH THE HOLIDAY OCCURRING ON A SATURDAY THIS YEAR... IT
CAN BE ASSUMED THAT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE PARTICULARLY
IMPORTANT TO MANY PEOPLE.

A HANDFUL OF DAYS A YEAR THE FORECAST MODELS LEAD FORECASTERS IN
ONE FORECAST DIRECTION FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND THEN SUDDENLY SHIFT
WITHIN THE FINAL DAY OR TWO TO BRING A SURPRISE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. WHILE THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN ALL THAT OFTEN... IT CAN BE A
PARTICULAR PAIN FOR FORECASTERS WHO PRIDE THEMSELVES ON TRYING TO
PRODUCE A HIGH QUALITY AND CONSISTENT FORECAST THAT USERS CAN RELY
ON FROM DAY TO DAY.

UNFORTUNATELY... MODEL FORECASTS HAVE SUDDENLY SHIFTED JUST IN
TIME FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. THE TIMING OF THIS COULD NOT BE MUCH
WORSE. WHILE FOR MANY DAYS FORECASTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY CALLED FOR
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY... THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
HAS INCREASINGLY BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND... LEADING TO A DRY INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. THIS DRY
FORECAST HAS NOW COME INTO QUESTION. EACH OF THE MAJOR MODELS NOW
FORECAST RAIN FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY... MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND POTENTIALLY
INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE.

THE NAM IS INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT ASSOCIATED
DIRECTLY WITH THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW... AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT TO COMPLETELY RUIN MOST OUTDOOR
EVENTS. THE GFS USES THIS MID LEVEL LIFT TO NOW DEVELOP A MORE
ROBUST SURFACE LOW AND TRACK IT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD THEN DEVELOP
WOULD SPREAD THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS AND UP INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE. THIS WOULD BE A
LITTLE HEAVIER RAIN BUT STILL MAYBE NOT A COMPLETE WASH OUT. FOR
ITS PART THE ECMWF GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE GFS THOUGH THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE AND LESS OVERALL QPF. THE CMC ALSO
DEVELOPS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BUT KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH
OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? THERE IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. WHEN THE MAV
AND MET BOTH SUGGEST 70 TO 80 POP IT IS USUALLY TOUGH TO ARGUE
WITH. BUT CONSIDERING THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WHICH HAS SHOWN SUCH A
HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION... IT HAS BEEN DECIDED THAT IT WOULD
BE BETTER TO RAISE THE POP A LITTLE BIT AND WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THIS NEW SOLUTION BEFORE JUMPING FULLY
ON BOARD WITH IT. FOR NOW... WILL GO WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LIKELY RAIN EVENT ON
SATURDAY... THE NEXT FORECAST SHIFT CAN HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
GOING WITH THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT
INDEPENDENCE DAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT EVEN IF IT
DOES RAIN AT SOME POINT. BUT IT IS WORTH COMING BACK TO CHECK
FUTURE FORECASTS AS THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON THIS FORECAST CAN
SEEMINGLY ONLY GO UP FROM HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING KEEPING THE CHANCE OF A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AROUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BERMUDA HIGH THEN EXPANDS
TO ENVELOPE THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF
NOTE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY
WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING BUT SURFACE HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH EACH
DAY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY BUT QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAKES IT PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN EACH DAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY THE
CEILING AND VISIBILITY MAY NOT BE IMPACTED MUCH.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...NO CONCERNS. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS
THE REGION THIS COMING WEEK BUT NONE ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISTURB
THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

KIMBLE/HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 030735
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
335 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXITING TO THE EAST. BENEATH THE SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS WARMER
AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS WHILE SOME LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AS WELL. A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS FAR TONIGHT AS THEY DID
LAST NIGHT. 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 40S IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS.

INDEPENDENCE DAY IS A UNIQUE HOLIDAY IN THAT IT IS ONE IN WHICH
THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TIED TO THE HOLIDAY.
THE FOURTH OF JULY OCCURS ON A SATURDAY ONLY ONCE EVERY 5 OR 6
YEARS. WITH THE HOLIDAY OCCURRING ON A SATURDAY THIS YEAR... IT
CAN BE ASSUMED THAT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE PARTICULARLY
IMPORTANT TO MANY PEOPLE.

A HANDFUL OF DAYS A YEAR THE FORECAST MODELS LEAD FORECASTERS IN
ONE FORECAST DIRECTION FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND THEN SUDDENLY SHIFT
WITHIN THE FINAL DAY OR TWO TO BRING A SURPRISE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. WHILE THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN ALL THAT OFTEN... IT CAN BE A
PARTICULAR PAIN FOR FORECASTERS WHO PRIDE THEMSELVES ON TRYING TO
PRODUCE A HIGH QUALITY AND CONSISTENT FORECAST THAT USERS CAN RELY
ON FROM DAY TO DAY.

UNFORTUNATELY... MODEL FORECASTS HAVE SUDDENLY SHIFTED JUST IN
TIME FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. THE TIMING OF THIS COULD NOT BE MUCH
WORSE. WHILE FOR MANY DAYS FORECASTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY CALLED FOR
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY... THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
HAS INCREASINGLY BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND... LEADING TO A DRY INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. THIS DRY
FORECAST HAS NOW COME INTO QUESTION. EACH OF THE MAJOR MODELS NOW
FORECAST RAIN FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY... MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND POTENTIALLY
INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE.

THE NAM IS INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT ASSOCIATED
DIRECTLY WITH THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW... AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT TO COMPLETELY RUIN MOST OUTDOOR
EVENTS. THE GFS USES THIS MID LEVEL LIFT TO NOW DEVELOP A MORE
ROBUST SURFACE LOW AND TRACK IT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD THEN DEVELOP
WOULD SPREAD THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS AND UP INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE. THIS WOULD BE A
LITTLE HEAVIER RAIN BUT STILL MAYBE NOT A COMPLETE WASH OUT. FOR
ITS PART THE ECMWF GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE GFS THOUGH THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE AND LESS OVERALL QPF. THE CMC ALSO
DEVELOPS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BUT KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH
OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? THERE IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. WHEN THE MAV
AND MET BOTH SUGGEST 70 TO 80 POP IT IS USUALLY TOUGH TO ARGUE
WITH. BUT CONSIDERING THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WHICH HAS SHOWN SUCH A
HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION... IT HAS BEEN DECIDED THAT IT WOULD
BE BETTER TO RAISE THE POP A LITTLE BIT AND WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THIS NEW SOLUTION BEFORE JUMPING FULLY
ON BOARD WITH IT. FOR NOW... WILL GO WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LIKELY RAIN EVENT ON
SATURDAY... THE NEXT FORECAST SHIFT CAN HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
GOING WITH THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT
INDEPENDENCE DAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT EVEN IF IT
DOES RAIN AT SOME POINT. BUT IT IS WORTH COMING BACK TO CHECK
FUTURE FORECASTS AS THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON THIS FORECAST CAN
SEEMINGLY ONLY GO UP FROM HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING KEEPING THE CHANCE OF A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AROUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BERMUDA HIGH THEN EXPANDS
TO ENVELOPE THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF
NOTE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY
WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING BUT SURFACE HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH EACH
DAY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY BUT QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAKES IT PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN EACH DAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY THE
CEILING AND VISIBILITY MAY NOT BE IMPACTED MUCH.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...NO CONCERNS. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS
THE REGION THIS COMING WEEK BUT NONE ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISTURB
THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

KIMBLE/HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 030735
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
335 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXITING TO THE EAST. BENEATH THE SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS WARMER
AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS WHILE SOME LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AS WELL. A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS FAR TONIGHT AS THEY DID
LAST NIGHT. 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 40S IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS.

INDEPENDENCE DAY IS A UNIQUE HOLIDAY IN THAT IT IS ONE IN WHICH
THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TIED TO THE HOLIDAY.
THE FOURTH OF JULY OCCURS ON A SATURDAY ONLY ONCE EVERY 5 OR 6
YEARS. WITH THE HOLIDAY OCCURRING ON A SATURDAY THIS YEAR... IT
CAN BE ASSUMED THAT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE PARTICULARLY
IMPORTANT TO MANY PEOPLE.

A HANDFUL OF DAYS A YEAR THE FORECAST MODELS LEAD FORECASTERS IN
ONE FORECAST DIRECTION FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND THEN SUDDENLY SHIFT
WITHIN THE FINAL DAY OR TWO TO BRING A SURPRISE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. WHILE THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN ALL THAT OFTEN... IT CAN BE A
PARTICULAR PAIN FOR FORECASTERS WHO PRIDE THEMSELVES ON TRYING TO
PRODUCE A HIGH QUALITY AND CONSISTENT FORECAST THAT USERS CAN RELY
ON FROM DAY TO DAY.

UNFORTUNATELY... MODEL FORECASTS HAVE SUDDENLY SHIFTED JUST IN
TIME FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. THE TIMING OF THIS COULD NOT BE MUCH
WORSE. WHILE FOR MANY DAYS FORECASTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY CALLED FOR
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY... THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
HAS INCREASINGLY BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND... LEADING TO A DRY INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. THIS DRY
FORECAST HAS NOW COME INTO QUESTION. EACH OF THE MAJOR MODELS NOW
FORECAST RAIN FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY... MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND POTENTIALLY
INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE.

THE NAM IS INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT ASSOCIATED
DIRECTLY WITH THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW... AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT TO COMPLETELY RUIN MOST OUTDOOR
EVENTS. THE GFS USES THIS MID LEVEL LIFT TO NOW DEVELOP A MORE
ROBUST SURFACE LOW AND TRACK IT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD THEN DEVELOP
WOULD SPREAD THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS AND UP INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE. THIS WOULD BE A
LITTLE HEAVIER RAIN BUT STILL MAYBE NOT A COMPLETE WASH OUT. FOR
ITS PART THE ECMWF GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE GFS THOUGH THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE AND LESS OVERALL QPF. THE CMC ALSO
DEVELOPS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BUT KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH
OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? THERE IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. WHEN THE MAV
AND MET BOTH SUGGEST 70 TO 80 POP IT IS USUALLY TOUGH TO ARGUE
WITH. BUT CONSIDERING THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WHICH HAS SHOWN SUCH A
HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION... IT HAS BEEN DECIDED THAT IT WOULD
BE BETTER TO RAISE THE POP A LITTLE BIT AND WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THIS NEW SOLUTION BEFORE JUMPING FULLY
ON BOARD WITH IT. FOR NOW... WILL GO WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LIKELY RAIN EVENT ON
SATURDAY... THE NEXT FORECAST SHIFT CAN HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
GOING WITH THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT
INDEPENDENCE DAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT EVEN IF IT
DOES RAIN AT SOME POINT. BUT IT IS WORTH COMING BACK TO CHECK
FUTURE FORECASTS AS THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON THIS FORECAST CAN
SEEMINGLY ONLY GO UP FROM HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING KEEPING THE CHANCE OF A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AROUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BERMUDA HIGH THEN EXPANDS
TO ENVELOPE THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF
NOTE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY
WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING BUT SURFACE HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH EACH
DAY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY BUT QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAKES IT PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN EACH DAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY THE
CEILING AND VISIBILITY MAY NOT BE IMPACTED MUCH.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...NO CONCERNS. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS
THE REGION THIS COMING WEEK BUT NONE ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISTURB
THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

KIMBLE/HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 030735
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
335 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXITING TO THE EAST. BENEATH THE SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS WARMER
AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS WHILE SOME LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AS WELL. A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS FAR TONIGHT AS THEY DID
LAST NIGHT. 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 40S IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS.

INDEPENDENCE DAY IS A UNIQUE HOLIDAY IN THAT IT IS ONE IN WHICH
THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TIED TO THE HOLIDAY.
THE FOURTH OF JULY OCCURS ON A SATURDAY ONLY ONCE EVERY 5 OR 6
YEARS. WITH THE HOLIDAY OCCURRING ON A SATURDAY THIS YEAR... IT
CAN BE ASSUMED THAT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE PARTICULARLY
IMPORTANT TO MANY PEOPLE.

A HANDFUL OF DAYS A YEAR THE FORECAST MODELS LEAD FORECASTERS IN
ONE FORECAST DIRECTION FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND THEN SUDDENLY SHIFT
WITHIN THE FINAL DAY OR TWO TO BRING A SURPRISE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. WHILE THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN ALL THAT OFTEN... IT CAN BE A
PARTICULAR PAIN FOR FORECASTERS WHO PRIDE THEMSELVES ON TRYING TO
PRODUCE A HIGH QUALITY AND CONSISTENT FORECAST THAT USERS CAN RELY
ON FROM DAY TO DAY.

UNFORTUNATELY... MODEL FORECASTS HAVE SUDDENLY SHIFTED JUST IN
TIME FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. THE TIMING OF THIS COULD NOT BE MUCH
WORSE. WHILE FOR MANY DAYS FORECASTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY CALLED FOR
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY... THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
HAS INCREASINGLY BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND... LEADING TO A DRY INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. THIS DRY
FORECAST HAS NOW COME INTO QUESTION. EACH OF THE MAJOR MODELS NOW
FORECAST RAIN FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY... MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND POTENTIALLY
INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE.

THE NAM IS INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT ASSOCIATED
DIRECTLY WITH THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW... AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT TO COMPLETELY RUIN MOST OUTDOOR
EVENTS. THE GFS USES THIS MID LEVEL LIFT TO NOW DEVELOP A MORE
ROBUST SURFACE LOW AND TRACK IT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD THEN DEVELOP
WOULD SPREAD THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS AND UP INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE. THIS WOULD BE A
LITTLE HEAVIER RAIN BUT STILL MAYBE NOT A COMPLETE WASH OUT. FOR
ITS PART THE ECMWF GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE GFS THOUGH THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE AND LESS OVERALL QPF. THE CMC ALSO
DEVELOPS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BUT KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH
OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? THERE IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. WHEN THE MAV
AND MET BOTH SUGGEST 70 TO 80 POP IT IS USUALLY TOUGH TO ARGUE
WITH. BUT CONSIDERING THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WHICH HAS SHOWN SUCH A
HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION... IT HAS BEEN DECIDED THAT IT WOULD
BE BETTER TO RAISE THE POP A LITTLE BIT AND WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THIS NEW SOLUTION BEFORE JUMPING FULLY
ON BOARD WITH IT. FOR NOW... WILL GO WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LIKELY RAIN EVENT ON
SATURDAY... THE NEXT FORECAST SHIFT CAN HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
GOING WITH THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT
INDEPENDENCE DAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT EVEN IF IT
DOES RAIN AT SOME POINT. BUT IT IS WORTH COMING BACK TO CHECK
FUTURE FORECASTS AS THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON THIS FORECAST CAN
SEEMINGLY ONLY GO UP FROM HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING KEEPING THE CHANCE OF A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AROUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BERMUDA HIGH THEN EXPANDS
TO ENVELOPE THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF
NOTE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY
WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING BUT SURFACE HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH EACH
DAY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY BUT QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAKES IT PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN EACH DAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY THE
CEILING AND VISIBILITY MAY NOT BE IMPACTED MUCH.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...NO CONCERNS. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS
THE REGION THIS COMING WEEK BUT NONE ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISTURB
THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

KIMBLE/HANES



000
FXUS61 KBOX 030233
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1033 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A MAINLY QUIET
AND DRY 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE IS
MAINTAINED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER THE WEATHER TAKES A
TURN TOWARDS A WARM...MUGGY...WET-WEATHER PATTERN WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...

REGIONAL RADAR DATA...AS WELL AS LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR...SHOWING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. A SECONDARY STILL EXPECTING THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
OUR REGION WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR GENERATING THE SECOND AREA OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. IT IS THIS AREA OF
SHOWERS WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
LATER TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OUT TO SEA LATE TONIGHT.

OTHER THAN TWEAKING POPS...ALSO TWEAKED SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES
TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
LIGHT...SO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO FORM ALONG THE COASTS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
MIXED LAYER IS FORECAST TO REACH 850 MB WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS AT
THAT LEVEL AROUND 10C. MIXING THIS TO THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S...CALL IT 75 TO 80. COOLER VALUES WHERE
THE SEA BREEZE TAKES HOLD.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER NEW ENGLAND.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER
AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
WE WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN SKY COVER DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE
MOST COVER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. BUT THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE
FOCUS OF SUPPORTING LIFT TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE 4TH OF JULY?
 - DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS WARMER
 - RETURN OF WARM...MUGGY...AND WET-WEATHER BY MIDWEEK
 - CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN

*/ DISCUSSION...

AN EBB AND FLOW PATTERN. SHOULD A H5 LOW ANOMALY MAINTAIN ACROSS THE
N ATLANTIC WITH H5 RIDGING IN AND AROUND THE VICINITY OF THE W CONUS
THEN H5 TROUGHING WOULD BE PREFERRED THROUGH THE C-CONUS ALONG THE E-
PERIPHERY OF WHICH THE NE-CONUS WOULD EXPERIENCE AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WHILE WOBBLING BETWEEN AIRMASSES. NOTHING IS CERTAIN AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC IS CHAOTIC...BUT INTERPRETING ANOMALIES AS OF LATE WHILE
INTERROGATING ENSEMBLE DATA LEADS TO CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL NOT BE
SEEING HEAT-WAVES NOR 100-DEGREE TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON. A SWAY
OF TEMPERATURES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH EXCHANGING
AIRMASSES...GOING FROM COOL AND DRY TO WARM AND MUGGY...A
PATTERN AS OF LATE THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE DRAW PARALLELS TO THE WEAK EL-NINO SUMMER
OF 2004 WITH THE C-CONUS HAVING WELL BELOW-NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NE-CONUS HOLDING NEAR-NORMAL.

LETS KEEP IT SIMPLE AND STRAIGHT-FORWARD WITH THE ABOVE DISCUSSION
IN MIND. A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE IS WARRANTED AS THERE IS
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THERE ARE
SIGNALS OF DISCREPANCY AS FORECAST GUIDANCE HANDLES THE RETURN OF
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST TO LOOK AT CIPS ANALOGS TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY-
THING WE SHOULD BE CONCERNED ABOUT ON THE HORIZON.

*/ DAILIES...

JULY 4TH WEEKEND:

18Z UPDATE...

THE 02.18Z GFS CONSIDERABLY OBLITERATES 4TH OF JULY FESTIVITIES
WITH A DECENT SLUG OF RAIN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND. APPEARING AS AN OUTLIER AS OF PRESENT AND
WILL TREAT IT AS SO. NEVERTHELESS THE 02.12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE
ROUGHLY A SPLIT OF 50 MEMBERS...HALF DRY AND THE OTHER HALF
SUGGESTING SOME SORT OF WET-WEATHER. 02.18Z NAM CONTINUES THE
FORECAST TREND OF WET-WEATHER OVER PA PERHAPS ADVECTING E/NE WITH
THE MEAN FLOW INTO S NEW ENGLAND BY WHICH TIME IT IS MAINLY MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR.

WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE-EYE ON THIS EVER CHANGING FORECAST AND
NOW A GROWING UNCERTAINTY THAT IT MAY NOT REMAIN DRY OVER S NEW
ENGLAND AFTER ALL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY-CAPPING MECHANISM KEEPS US PERHAPS QUIET
AND DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD? YET THERE HAS BEEN AN INDICATION OF A
STOUT STRETCHED MID-LEVEL VORTEX THROUGH THE OVERALL TROUGH-PATTERN
FOR QUITE SOME TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH UP AGAINST THE FORCING MECHANISMS ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY ALOFT...WHETHER WE CAN GET SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY PER
MID-LEVEL FORCING IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT
WITH A MEASURE OF STABILITY. WILL KEEP WITH A MOSTLY-DRY FORECAST
FOR NOW BUT HOLDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER S AND W PORTIONS OF S
NEW ENGLAND...WITH CHANCE POPS S OFFSHORE.

OTHERWISE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ENCROACH FROM THE WEST. FLOW
LOOKS TO BE RATHER LIGHT...AND BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE MAY MAKE FOR
SOME SMOKEY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. PERHAPS SOME FASTER FLOW MOVES IN BY
3Z AS THE 02.12Z NAM SUGGESTS BUT THINK ITS TOO ROBUST. WIND SPEEDS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 MPH AND NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR AS
FROM WHAT DIRECTION. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK:

KEEPING IT DRY. HIGH PRESSURE SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. CHILLY INTO
MONDAY MORNING BUT BEGIN TO SEE RETURN S-FLOW BY THE END OF THE DAY
GOING ON INTO TUESDAY. COULD SEE A WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE PATTERN AT
LEAST BY TUESDAY WITH H85 +14C AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. HIGHS AROUND THE
MID-80S WITH LOW-LYING INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE UPPER-80S.

MIDWEEK:

A RETURN OF WARM-MUGGY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A SWEEPING SYNOPTIC LOW
DISTURBANCE FROM THE N. INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALONG
AND AHEAD. CONFIDENCE TOWARDS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FROM THE CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE...ANALOGS DERIVED FROM THE 0Z GEFS
HAVE A 60% CHANCE OF ABOVE-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NE-CONUS...AND NATURALLY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENT...THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

SHOULD THE TROUGHING PATTERN PERSIST AS A CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ROUNDS OF WET-WEATHER
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE. NO
CERTAINTY ON OUTCOMES. WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH-
OUT THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

0230Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING E/SE. SCATTERED SHRA TOWARD
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS FOR A TIME AROUND MIDNIGHT. POSSIBLE IFR
FOG TOWARDS MORNING.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. VRB WINDS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS. MORE PROMINENT S-
WINDS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

1030 PM UPDATE...

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH...BUT REMAIN
WELL BELOW 20 KNOTS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VARIABLE WINDS THROUGHOUT WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS WILL
MAKE FOR GOOD BOATING WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. MORE PROMINENT S-WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. WILL HOLD SEAS
BELOW 5-FEET DESPITE ANTICIPATED SWELL FROM W-E S-OFFSHORE STORM
SYSTEMS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...BELK/WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/WTB/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 030233
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1033 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A MAINLY QUIET
AND DRY 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE IS
MAINTAINED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER THE WEATHER TAKES A
TURN TOWARDS A WARM...MUGGY...WET-WEATHER PATTERN WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...

REGIONAL RADAR DATA...AS WELL AS LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR...SHOWING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. A SECONDARY STILL EXPECTING THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
OUR REGION WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR GENERATING THE SECOND AREA OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. IT IS THIS AREA OF
SHOWERS WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
LATER TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OUT TO SEA LATE TONIGHT.

OTHER THAN TWEAKING POPS...ALSO TWEAKED SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES
TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
LIGHT...SO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO FORM ALONG THE COASTS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
MIXED LAYER IS FORECAST TO REACH 850 MB WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS AT
THAT LEVEL AROUND 10C. MIXING THIS TO THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S...CALL IT 75 TO 80. COOLER VALUES WHERE
THE SEA BREEZE TAKES HOLD.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER NEW ENGLAND.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER
AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
WE WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN SKY COVER DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE
MOST COVER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. BUT THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE
FOCUS OF SUPPORTING LIFT TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE 4TH OF JULY?
 - DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS WARMER
 - RETURN OF WARM...MUGGY...AND WET-WEATHER BY MIDWEEK
 - CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN

*/ DISCUSSION...

AN EBB AND FLOW PATTERN. SHOULD A H5 LOW ANOMALY MAINTAIN ACROSS THE
N ATLANTIC WITH H5 RIDGING IN AND AROUND THE VICINITY OF THE W CONUS
THEN H5 TROUGHING WOULD BE PREFERRED THROUGH THE C-CONUS ALONG THE E-
PERIPHERY OF WHICH THE NE-CONUS WOULD EXPERIENCE AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WHILE WOBBLING BETWEEN AIRMASSES. NOTHING IS CERTAIN AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC IS CHAOTIC...BUT INTERPRETING ANOMALIES AS OF LATE WHILE
INTERROGATING ENSEMBLE DATA LEADS TO CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL NOT BE
SEEING HEAT-WAVES NOR 100-DEGREE TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON. A SWAY
OF TEMPERATURES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH EXCHANGING
AIRMASSES...GOING FROM COOL AND DRY TO WARM AND MUGGY...A
PATTERN AS OF LATE THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE DRAW PARALLELS TO THE WEAK EL-NINO SUMMER
OF 2004 WITH THE C-CONUS HAVING WELL BELOW-NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NE-CONUS HOLDING NEAR-NORMAL.

LETS KEEP IT SIMPLE AND STRAIGHT-FORWARD WITH THE ABOVE DISCUSSION
IN MIND. A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE IS WARRANTED AS THERE IS
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THERE ARE
SIGNALS OF DISCREPANCY AS FORECAST GUIDANCE HANDLES THE RETURN OF
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST TO LOOK AT CIPS ANALOGS TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY-
THING WE SHOULD BE CONCERNED ABOUT ON THE HORIZON.

*/ DAILIES...

JULY 4TH WEEKEND:

18Z UPDATE...

THE 02.18Z GFS CONSIDERABLY OBLITERATES 4TH OF JULY FESTIVITIES
WITH A DECENT SLUG OF RAIN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND. APPEARING AS AN OUTLIER AS OF PRESENT AND
WILL TREAT IT AS SO. NEVERTHELESS THE 02.12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE
ROUGHLY A SPLIT OF 50 MEMBERS...HALF DRY AND THE OTHER HALF
SUGGESTING SOME SORT OF WET-WEATHER. 02.18Z NAM CONTINUES THE
FORECAST TREND OF WET-WEATHER OVER PA PERHAPS ADVECTING E/NE WITH
THE MEAN FLOW INTO S NEW ENGLAND BY WHICH TIME IT IS MAINLY MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR.

WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE-EYE ON THIS EVER CHANGING FORECAST AND
NOW A GROWING UNCERTAINTY THAT IT MAY NOT REMAIN DRY OVER S NEW
ENGLAND AFTER ALL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY-CAPPING MECHANISM KEEPS US PERHAPS QUIET
AND DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD? YET THERE HAS BEEN AN INDICATION OF A
STOUT STRETCHED MID-LEVEL VORTEX THROUGH THE OVERALL TROUGH-PATTERN
FOR QUITE SOME TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH UP AGAINST THE FORCING MECHANISMS ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY ALOFT...WHETHER WE CAN GET SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY PER
MID-LEVEL FORCING IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT
WITH A MEASURE OF STABILITY. WILL KEEP WITH A MOSTLY-DRY FORECAST
FOR NOW BUT HOLDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER S AND W PORTIONS OF S
NEW ENGLAND...WITH CHANCE POPS S OFFSHORE.

OTHERWISE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ENCROACH FROM THE WEST. FLOW
LOOKS TO BE RATHER LIGHT...AND BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE MAY MAKE FOR
SOME SMOKEY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. PERHAPS SOME FASTER FLOW MOVES IN BY
3Z AS THE 02.12Z NAM SUGGESTS BUT THINK ITS TOO ROBUST. WIND SPEEDS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 MPH AND NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR AS
FROM WHAT DIRECTION. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK:

KEEPING IT DRY. HIGH PRESSURE SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. CHILLY INTO
MONDAY MORNING BUT BEGIN TO SEE RETURN S-FLOW BY THE END OF THE DAY
GOING ON INTO TUESDAY. COULD SEE A WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE PATTERN AT
LEAST BY TUESDAY WITH H85 +14C AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. HIGHS AROUND THE
MID-80S WITH LOW-LYING INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE UPPER-80S.

MIDWEEK:

A RETURN OF WARM-MUGGY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A SWEEPING SYNOPTIC LOW
DISTURBANCE FROM THE N. INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALONG
AND AHEAD. CONFIDENCE TOWARDS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FROM THE CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE...ANALOGS DERIVED FROM THE 0Z GEFS
HAVE A 60% CHANCE OF ABOVE-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NE-CONUS...AND NATURALLY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENT...THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

SHOULD THE TROUGHING PATTERN PERSIST AS A CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ROUNDS OF WET-WEATHER
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE. NO
CERTAINTY ON OUTCOMES. WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH-
OUT THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

0230Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING E/SE. SCATTERED SHRA TOWARD
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS FOR A TIME AROUND MIDNIGHT. POSSIBLE IFR
FOG TOWARDS MORNING.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. VRB WINDS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS. MORE PROMINENT S-
WINDS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

1030 PM UPDATE...

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH...BUT REMAIN
WELL BELOW 20 KNOTS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VARIABLE WINDS THROUGHOUT WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS WILL
MAKE FOR GOOD BOATING WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. MORE PROMINENT S-WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. WILL HOLD SEAS
BELOW 5-FEET DESPITE ANTICIPATED SWELL FROM W-E S-OFFSHORE STORM
SYSTEMS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...BELK/WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/WTB/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KGYX 030132
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
932 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR WEATHER
RIGHT THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AS IT REMAINS
ON TRACK. EXPECT THE PLEASANT EVENING TO CONTINUE.

645 PM UDPATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERNMOST ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE WAVE
PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY THIS EVENING.
DIMINISHING WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND COOLING TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

PREVIOUSLY...

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN SLOWLY FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH WEAK
500 MB TROUGH SWINGS THRU WHICH WILL KEEP A BIT OF GRADIENT FLOW
GOING ABV THE BOUNDARY LYR...AND PERHAPS MOVE SOME SCT CIRRUS
THRU OVERNIGHT. THE SHELTERED SPOTS SHOULD DECOUPLE...AND SOME
VLY FOG IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE
PBL...WILL BE MORE PATCHY. IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH MINS RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE COAST...TO THE MID 40S IN THE N.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WILL SEE THE 500 MB RIDGING BEGIN TO SHIFT IN ON FRIDAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC RIDGE TO BUILD AND WEAKEN GRADIENT FLOW
SIGNIFICANTLY. INLAND TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THU...MAY A TOUCH
WARMER. ON THE COAST WILL SEE A LIGHT SEA BREEZE DEVELOP...WHICH
WILL KEEP MAXES MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THU....INLAND
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE MTNS...TO AROUND 80 IN
INTERIOR SRN NH AND SW ME.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS COOL AND CLEAR...AND JUST A TOUCH WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS AGAIN RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S
N...TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER TRANQUIL PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD
ACCOMPANIED BY SUMMER CONDITIONS AND NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...FINALLY! WE ARE ALSO STAYING IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND MAINLY BE AFFECTED BY CANADIAN AIR MASSES, SO HUMIDITY
LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN AT COMFORTABLE LEVELS.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES THE TROUGH IN THE
EAST...ALL THE ENERGY AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE STAYING WELL TO
OUR SOUTH WITH ONLY VERY MINOR TROUGHS TO QUIETLY MOVE THROUGH
EVERY FEW DAYS BUT MOSTLY TO GO UNNOTICED. FORECAST H85
TEMPERATURES ARE MILD AND OTHER THAN SOME AFTERNOON SEABREEZES NO
CONSIDERABLE ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED, THUS THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

THE ONLY TROUGH WORTH MENTIONING IS THE ONE FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH ON SUNDAY THAT MAY CAUSE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY SUMMER
CONDITIONS AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU FRI NIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A
PERIOD OF VLY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KHIE/KLEB.

LONG TERM...POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS SUNDAY NIGHT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SFC HIGH BUILDS JUST N OF THE WATERS THROUGH FRI
NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE
AFTER A FEW 4-5 FOOTERS SUBSIDE TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME ENHANCED
ONSHORE FLOW IN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS FRI AFTERNOON ALONG THE
SHORE.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD AS GENERALLY HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS DOMINATE FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 030132
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
932 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR WEATHER
RIGHT THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AS IT REMAINS
ON TRACK. EXPECT THE PLEASANT EVENING TO CONTINUE.

645 PM UDPATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERNMOST ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE WAVE
PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY THIS EVENING.
DIMINISHING WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND COOLING TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

PREVIOUSLY...

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN SLOWLY FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH WEAK
500 MB TROUGH SWINGS THRU WHICH WILL KEEP A BIT OF GRADIENT FLOW
GOING ABV THE BOUNDARY LYR...AND PERHAPS MOVE SOME SCT CIRRUS
THRU OVERNIGHT. THE SHELTERED SPOTS SHOULD DECOUPLE...AND SOME
VLY FOG IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE
PBL...WILL BE MORE PATCHY. IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH MINS RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE COAST...TO THE MID 40S IN THE N.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WILL SEE THE 500 MB RIDGING BEGIN TO SHIFT IN ON FRIDAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC RIDGE TO BUILD AND WEAKEN GRADIENT FLOW
SIGNIFICANTLY. INLAND TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THU...MAY A TOUCH
WARMER. ON THE COAST WILL SEE A LIGHT SEA BREEZE DEVELOP...WHICH
WILL KEEP MAXES MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THU....INLAND
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE MTNS...TO AROUND 80 IN
INTERIOR SRN NH AND SW ME.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS COOL AND CLEAR...AND JUST A TOUCH WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS AGAIN RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S
N...TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER TRANQUIL PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD
ACCOMPANIED BY SUMMER CONDITIONS AND NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...FINALLY! WE ARE ALSO STAYING IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND MAINLY BE AFFECTED BY CANADIAN AIR MASSES, SO HUMIDITY
LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN AT COMFORTABLE LEVELS.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES THE TROUGH IN THE
EAST...ALL THE ENERGY AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE STAYING WELL TO
OUR SOUTH WITH ONLY VERY MINOR TROUGHS TO QUIETLY MOVE THROUGH
EVERY FEW DAYS BUT MOSTLY TO GO UNNOTICED. FORECAST H85
TEMPERATURES ARE MILD AND OTHER THAN SOME AFTERNOON SEABREEZES NO
CONSIDERABLE ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED, THUS THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

THE ONLY TROUGH WORTH MENTIONING IS THE ONE FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH ON SUNDAY THAT MAY CAUSE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY SUMMER
CONDITIONS AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU FRI NIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A
PERIOD OF VLY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KHIE/KLEB.

LONG TERM...POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS SUNDAY NIGHT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SFC HIGH BUILDS JUST N OF THE WATERS THROUGH FRI
NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE
AFTER A FEW 4-5 FOOTERS SUBSIDE TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME ENHANCED
ONSHORE FLOW IN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS FRI AFTERNOON ALONG THE
SHORE.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD AS GENERALLY HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS DOMINATE FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLE



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