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000
FXUS61 KBOX 121806
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
106 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY BUT VERY COLD WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR TODAY.  AN OCEAN STORM WILL
TRACK WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT BUT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL DELIVER
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 35 BELOW ZERO LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING!  FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A STORM WILL
LIKELY BRING SNOW QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND TO
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN INLAND AS MUCH MILDER AIR MOVES INTO NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...
UPDATED T/TD GRIDS FOR CURRENT OBS/TRENDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON
TRACK.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL COME TO AN END LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER AND
EVEN MORE INTENSE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. NOT TOO MUCH MODERATION
OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON AS 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN BELOW -15C.
THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO ONLY RECOVER INTO THE 20 TO 25
DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER TEENS HIGHER TERRAIN BUT
WINDS WILL BECOME RELATIVELY LIGHT. SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING
SHOULD GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH COLD SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
*** ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS ***

*** BITTERLY COLD AIR INVADES THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
  STRONG WIND GUSTS AND RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES ***


TONIGHT...

AN INTERESTING SETUP FOR TONIGHT AS AN OCEAN STORM WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.  AT THE SAME
TIME...POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.  THIS WILL SETUP AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING BACK INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  THE RESULT WILL BE A
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST OMEGA ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 MICROBARS
PER SECOND.  WILL ALSO LIKELY HAVE SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WITH LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW RESULTING IN OCEAN INDUCED CAPES BETWEEN 400
AND 500 J/KG.  OVERALL THINK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS A GOOD BET FOR
MOST OF THE CAPE/VINEYARD WITH A LOW RISK OF 4 INCHES.  WILL ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THESE LOCATIONS...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY
HAVE TO CONSIDER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. LIFT/FORCING PERSISTS A
BIT LONGER ACROSS NANTUCKET AND WITH A PERIOD OF MODEST
SNOWGROWTH...FEEL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS REASONABLE AND WILL HOIST A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THEM.  BULK OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO FALL
BETWEEN 9 PM AND 5 AM...BUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO MID
MORNING SAT.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY EXTEND BACK INTO RHODE ISLAND/EASTERN
MA WITH MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST.  A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR MAINLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE WITH UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS CAPE/NANTUCKET.

SATURDAY...

ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING.  IT MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...BUT THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE THE DANGEROUSLY COLD AIRMASS THAT WILL INVADE THE REGION.
MIDDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL RAPIDLY FALL
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  IN FACT...BY 00Z SUNDAY 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE DOWN TO RARE VALUES OF -26 TO -30C FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND STANDARDS. THE RESULT WILL BE EARLY SAT EVENING TEMPS
ALREADY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION
EXPECT EXCELLENT MIXING.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO SAT NIGHT.  WE ALREADY ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
CAPE COD/NANTUCKET GIVEN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AS ARCTIC AIR
STREAMS IN OVER THE RELATIVELY MILD OCEAN.  WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR A TIME ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...BUT APPEARED TO
MARGINAL TO ISSUE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*** DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT ***

HIGHLIGHTS...

* BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
 WEEKEND
* SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN LIKELY TUE AND TUE NIGHT

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

MODELS CONTINUE AGREE WELL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DEEP
AMPLIFIED FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
SEASON TO ARRIVE BY LATE SAT...WILL THEN TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL
FLOW AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOOKS TO REGAIN CONTROL.
HOWEVER...WITH SOME LINK TO A VORTEX HOVERING AROUND THE QUEEN
ELIZABETH ISLANDS...THE WARMING TREND WILL NOT LAST...AND GIVE WAY
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
GIVEN THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT...A GENERAL BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A BASELINE FOR ALL BUT THE SRN STREAM
DOMINANT SYSTEM MON-TUE. A BLEND OF ENSEMBLES WILL BE USED FOR
THIS FEATURE DUE TO TRACK DISCREPANCIES.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
REINFORCING ARCTIC SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROF ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE SEVERAL
CONSEQUENCES. IT WILL ALLOW THE DEEPEST OF THE COLD AIR TO SPILL
ACROSS THE REGION...NEARING -30C AT H85. AT THE SAME TIME THE
STRONG MID LVL COLD ADVECTION AND INCREASED ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE
WILL LEAD TO INCREASED WIND ACROSS THE REGION...EXACERBATING AN
ALREADY VERY COLD SITUATION. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO ALREADY BE NEAR
OR BELOW 0F IN THE INTERIOR BY EVENING AND ONLY DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW 0F THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
INCREASED NW FLOW AT THE SFC...WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH AT
TIMES...WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -20F AND
-30F OR EVEN -35F IN SPOTS. WILL BE UPGRADING INTERIOR MA/CT AND
RI TO WIND CHILL WARNINGS WITH THIS UPDATE...BUT LEAVE WATCHES
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE MORE UNCERTAINTY LIE. WILL EXPAND THE
WATCH TO INCLUDE CAPE COD...AS CURRENT NUMBERS SUGGEST IT COULD BE
CLOSE THERE AS WELL. THE HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE 0F ON SUN...SO THE COLD WIND CHILLS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER WELL INTO THE DAY IN SPITE OF MAINLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS.

THE FINAL ISSUE OF NOTE...IS THAT IT WILL TURN MID LVL WINDS
TOWARD THE N. IN SPITE OF THE FLOW REMAINING MORE NW AT THE SFC.
THIS MAY ALLOW A LONG ENOUGH FETCH ACROSS ANOMALOUSLY WARM GULF OF
MAINE WATERS TO YIELD A HIGHER RISK FOR OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE COD. WITH SST-H85 DELTA-T VALUES NEARING
30C AND NORMALIZED CAPE VALUES AROUND 0.3 WILL NEED TO WATCH IF
ANY BANDS SETUP...ESPECIALLY AS AN INVERTED TROF FROM THE MAINE
COAST SHIFTS N. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
VERY DESTABILIZED LOW LVLS.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING IN AND CROSSING THE REGION...YIELDING
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SOME WARMING. H92 TEMPS REBOUND BACK
CLOSER TO -10C...OR AT LEAST CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. AFTER A
COLD START WITH SEVERAL SITES STILL BELOW 0F /THANKS TO SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING/ HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE STARTING TO LEAN CLOSER TO AN INSIDE RUNNER
LOW PRES SYSTEM WITH TIES TO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE THANKS TO ITS
STRONGER SRN STREAM INFLUENCE. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE TREND
SET FORTH BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...AND LEAN THE FORECAST IN
THIS DIRECTION. THIS IS BETTER NEWS AS IT DOES NOT PROMOTE GOOD
COLD AIR DAMMING. THEREFORE...THERMAL PROFILES ON BUFKIT SUGGESTS
AN INITIAL SNOWY START LATE MON NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO AN ALL
RAIN EVENT BY TUE. 40-50 KT LLJ AND PWATS NEARLY 2 STD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL SUPPORT THE HIGH QPF MODELS CURRENTLY PROJECT...SO IT
COULD BE THAT LIQUID TOTALS OF AN INCH OR EVEN MORE ARE POSSIBLE
BY THE TIME THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT TUE NIGHT. CERTAINLY SOMETHING
TO WATCH GIVEN IT WILL BE A MIXED PRECIP EVENT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN.

WED INTO FRI...
SECOND ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WED. THIS AIRMASS IS NOT NEARLY AS DEEPLY COLD
AS THIS WEEKEND/S AIRMASS. H85 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -22C ON
AVERAGE...SUPPORTED BY ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS MEANS TEMPS WILL
CERTAINLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS DANGEROUS AS THIS
WEEKEND/S. WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND CHILL VALUES REACHING
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR SOME MAINLY WED NIGHT INTO THU...WHEN WINDS
ARE AT THEIR STRONGEST. SLIGHT MODERATION EXPECTED BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN SNOW
ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS...MOSTLY FROM 02-09Z. SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR
WILL LIKELY EXTEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF S COASTAL MA/RI.
OTHERWISE...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS REST OF SNE.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED WITH A FEW
BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS AS ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES REGION 12-18Z.
INCREASING NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR...BUT A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUTER CAPE. LOW
PROB THAT SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS EXTENDING ACROSS NE MA. NW
GUSTS TO 35-40 KT IN THE EVENING DIMINISHING TO 25 KT OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR INLAND...WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN OCEAN EFFECT
CIGS/SNOWS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS WITH
WIND GUSTS 20-30 KT POSSIBLE UNTIL MID DAY SUN.

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
BECOMING IFR WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN WITH AREAS OF FOG LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT MAY RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS STILL GUSTING OVER 30 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVES OVER THE RELATIVELY MILD OCEAN.
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING AND DROP BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY NOON...AS COLD ADVECTION COMES TO AN
END AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST.  FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES CONTINUE
THROUGH 8 AM...BUT SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AS WINDS
DIMINISH.

TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT...BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP
BY DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY...ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH EXTREME COLD ADVECTION
OVER THE WATERS.  PRETTY MUCH A SLAM DUNK ON NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS ALL WATERS.  HAVE HOISTED GALE HEADLINES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE AIRMASS IS SO COLD
THAT MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED BY EARLY
SAT EVENING.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

*** GALE FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED SAT EVENING
 INTO EARLY SUN ***

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG AND BITTERLY COLD NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO GALE FORCE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. GALE WARNINGS AND
FREEZING SPRAY WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS RISK. CONDITIONS
DROP TO SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS BY LATE SUN. OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALL
IS LIKELY ACROSS SOME OF THE OTHER EASTERN WATERS.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW
ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO DROP BY EARLY MON MORNING WITH
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER TO FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF MON.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE SW. WINDS
AND SEAS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS AS EARLY AS TUE MORNING
AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME RAIN/FOG MAY LEAD TO LOWER
VISIBILITIES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. RECORD COLD
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. HERE ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH...

BOSTON.......15/1979 - 14/1916
HARTFORD.....11/1979 - 11/1979
PROVIDENCE...10/1979 - 10/1979
WORCESTER.... 8/1899 -  7/1979
BLUE HILL.... 9/1899 - 10/1979

RECORD COLD LOWS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH - 15TH...

BOSTON...... -3/1967 -  -3/1934 - -14/1943
HARTFORD.... -7/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943
PROVIDENCE.. -5/1967 -  -7/1979 - -14/1943
WORCESTER...-12/1967 - -11/1979 - -19/1943
BLUE HILL...-10/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ002>019-026.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ020>022.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ024.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ022-024.
RI...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
     RIZ001>004.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR RIZ005>007.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
     SUNDAY MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-250-251.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
CLIMATE...



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000
FXUS61 KGYX 121745 AAD
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1245 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL DISSIPATE
INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MAINE BY SATURDAY
MORNING. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW IN IT`S
WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND WILL
CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
NIGHT AND WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH
WESTERN NEW NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO EASTERN QUEBEC BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12PM UPDATE...WITH VERY GOOD AGREEMENT COMING IN WITH THE 12Z
MODEL SUITE...HAVE HOISTED WINTER STORM WATCHES ALONG THE GYX SIDE
OF PENOBSCOT BAY /KNOX-WALDO COUNTIES/ FOR 6-10 INCHES OF
POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. HAVE ALSO ADDED COASTAL ZONES INTO
WIND CHILL HEADLINES /ADVISORIES/ AS CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH IN
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THESE ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT.

11AM UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE LATE THIS MORNING WITH
BRIGHT SUN HELPING TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY REBOUND THROUGH THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND INTO THE LOW TEENS. UPDATED FOR NEAR TERM
TRENDS...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE TEENS. WILL BE
CONSIDERING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR SNOW ALONG THE MIDCOAST
THIS AFTERNOON AS 12Z NAM/GFS CONSISTENTLY BULLSEYE THE PENOBSCOT
BAY REGION BY LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY. MORE ON
THIS...THIS AFTERNOON.

9AM UPDATE...HAVE CANCELLED WIND CHILL ADVISORY AS TEMPERATURES
REBOUND THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...WILL TRANSITION ONGOING WIND
CHILL WATCHES TO WARNINGS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY CHANGES TO
THE NEAR TERM GRIDS INCLUDE CLEARING OUT ALL CLOUD COVER FOR THE
MORNING HOURS AS CRYSTAL CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE AREA THIS
MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM.

PREVIOUS BELOW...

SHALLOW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. MAY SEE A
STRAY SNOW SHOWER...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO SEE A DRY DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER MID TEENS NORTH AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY OPEN INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH AS IT
SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. TROUGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED
ON THE MID COAST AREA WHERE INCREASING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A LOCALIZED AREA OF SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. CARIBOU STICKING WITH WATCHES AT THIS POINT AND SO
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT THE MODELS BEFORE
DECIDING ON HEADLINES. EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY ON SATURDAY.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID TEENS SOUTH.

TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ON SATURDAY IN FAR
EASTERN COASTAL ZONES BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF LATER IN THE DAY.
LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
AS NORTHWEST GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME
SUNNY BREAKS IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT MOST OF WESTERN MAINE
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS OF 5 TO 15 NORTH AND IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS EXTREMELY COLD WITH THE
POLAR VORTEX DIPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL POUR INTO THE REGION WITH SPRAWLING DENSE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DOMINATING THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND MOST
OF MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE NEGATIVE NUMBERS
AREAWIDE WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY IN THE LOWER NEGATIVE 20S.

LOOKING AT NAEFS AND GEFS ANOMALY INDICATORS FOR THIS EVENT SHOWS
JUST HOW COLD THIS AIRMASS IS. THE NAEFS CLIMATOLOGICAL
PERCENTILES FOR GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES INDICATE
MINIMUMS FOR MOST HEIGHTS AROUND SUNDAY AT 00Z AND 06Z. THIS
MEANS THAT WE ARE FORECASTING AN EVENT HAS NOT OCCURRED WITHIN
THE NAEFS 1979-2009 CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALSO THE
NAEFS R INTERVAL IS OUTSIDE CLIMATOLOGY AT 500MB OVER OUR REGION
AND JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

NOT SURPRISINGLY PWATS ARE ALSO FORECASTED TO BE IN THE BOTTOM
ONE PERCENTILE FOR THE NAEFS CLIMATE RECORD. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
COME TO AN END QUICKLY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM
THE WEST. NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE DEPARTING ARCTIC FRONT
AND WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA AND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. CURRENTLY HAVE
LEFT THE WIND CHILL WATCH UP AS IS AND AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT WE WILL BE ABLE TO ADJUST TIMING A LITTLE BETTER. THEREFORE
WILL LEAVE THIS FOR A LATER SHIFT TO ISSUE EVEN THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN ITS NECESSITY. SOME OF THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS APPROACH-40
F ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. TO THE SOUTH IT WONT BE MUCH BETTER WITH
-20 TO -30 F WILL BE MORE COMMON.

SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WARM UP ONLY SLIGHTLY INTO THE SINGLE NEGATIVE
DIGITS NORTH TO AROUND +5 TO +10 SOUTH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ANOTHER TERRIBLY COLD NIGHT AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES ABUTTING CANADA. THE
SILVER LINING DURING THIS TIME IS THAT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AND TRY AND PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE. WHETHER
THIS HAPPENS REMAINS TO BE SEEN BUT IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL HAVE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. AT THE SURFACE... A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE
A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY
MIX IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AS WARMER AIR
OVERRIDES THE COLDER AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. WENT
WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ON WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS WE STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WE MAY SEE
A WARMER DAY ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BY
THURSDAY WITH THE COLDEST AIR DAMMING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT US NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKED
LIKE ANOTHER IDEAL TIME TO USE A NON-DIURNAL CURVE AS A WARM
FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ATTM. EXPECT
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE COMING TAF PERIOD WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AT RKD AND LIKELY AUG WITH IFR/LIFR
RESTRICTIONS. FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY...INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES
ARE POSSIBLE...MOST LIKELY AT RKD. FURTHER WEST...ARCTIC FRONT
WILL BRING A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS...MOST LIKELY TO BRING
RESTRICTIONS TO LEB/HIE...BUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS AS WELL. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR SUNDAY.

AFTER LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS /15G25KTS/
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM... MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S FOR THE BAYS THROUGH 8 AM AND OUTER
WATERS THROUGH NOON. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS
UNTIL 10 AM.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/BORDERLINE GALES WILL BE NEEDED
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MEZ007>009.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR MEZ012>014-018>022.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ022-027-028.
NH...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NHZ001>003.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NHZ004>013-015.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANES/SINSABAUGH
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT/SINSABAUGH
SHORT TERM...SINSABAUGH
LONG TERM...HANES
AVIATION...ARNOTT/HANES
MARINE...HANES/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KGYX 121716 AAC
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1216 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL DISSIPATE
INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MAINE BY SATURDAY
MORNING. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW IN IT`S
WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND WILL
CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
NIGHT AND WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH
WESTERN NEW NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO EASTERN QUEBEC BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12PM UPDATE...WITH VERY GOOD AGREEMENT COMING IN WITH THE 12Z
MODEL SUITE...HAVE HOISTED WINTER STORM WATCHES ALONG THE GYX SIDE
OF PENOBSCOT BAY /KNOX-WALDO COUNTIES/ FOR 6-10 INCHES OF
POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. HAVE ALSO ADDED COASTAL ZONES INTO
WIND CHILL HEADLINES /ADVISORIES/ AS CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH IN
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THESE ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT.

11AM UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE LATE THIS MORNING WITH
BRIGHT SUN HELPING TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY REBOUND THROUGH THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND INTO THE LOW TEENS. UPDATED FOR NEAR TERM
TRENDS...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE TEENS. WILL BE
CONSIDERING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR SNOW ALONG THE MIDCOAST
THIS AFTERNOON AS 12Z NAM/GFS CONSISTENTLY BULLSEYE THE PENOBSCOT
BAY REGION BY LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY. MORE ON
THIS...THIS AFTERNOON.

9AM UPDATE...HAVE CANCELLED WIND CHILL ADVISORY AS TEMPERATURES
REBOUND THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...WILL TRANSITION ONGOING WIND
CHILL WATCHES TO WARNINGS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY CHANGES TO
THE NEAR TERM GRIDS INCLUDE CLEARING OUT ALL CLOUD COVER FOR THE
MORNING HOURS AS CRYSTAL CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE AREA THIS
MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM.

PREVIOUS BELOW...

SHALLOW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. MAY SEE A
STRAY SNOW SHOWER...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO SEE A DRY DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER MID TEENS NORTH AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY OPEN INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH AS IT
SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. TROUGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED
ON THE MID COAST AREA WHERE INCREASING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A LOCALIZED AREA OF SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. CARIBOU STICKING WITH WATCHES AT THIS POINT AND SO
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT THE MODELS BEFORE
DECIDING ON HEADLINES. EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY ON SATURDAY.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID TEENS SOUTH.

TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ON SATURDAY IN FAR
EASTERN COASTAL ZONES BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF LATER IN THE DAY.
LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
AS NORTHWEST GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME
SUNNY BREAKS IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT MOST OF WESTERN MAINE
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS OF 5 TO 15 NORTH AND IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS EXTREMELY COLD WITH THE
POLAR VORTEX DIPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL POUR INTO THE REGION WITH SPRAWLING DENSE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DOMINATING THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND MOST
OF MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE NEGATIVE NUMBERS
AREAWIDE WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY IN THE LOWER NEGATIVE 20S.

LOOKING AT NAEFS AND GEFS ANOMALY INDICATORS FOR THIS EVENT SHOWS
JUST HOW COLD THIS AIRMASS IS. THE NAEFS CLIMATOLOGICAL
PERCENTILES FOR GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES INDICATE
MINIMUMS FOR MOST HEIGHTS AROUND SUNDAY AT 00Z AND 06Z. THIS
MEANS THAT WE ARE FORECASTING AN EVENT HAS NOT OCCURRED WITHIN
THE NAEFS 1979-2009 CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALSO THE
NAEFS R INTERVAL IS OUTSIDE CLIMATOLOGY AT 500MB OVER OUR REGION
AND JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

NOT SURPRISINGLY PWATS ARE ALSO FORECASTED TO BE IN THE BOTTOM
ONE PERCENTILE FOR THE NAEFS CLIMATE RECORD. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
COME TO AN END QUICKLY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM
THE WEST. NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE DEPARTING ARCTIC FRONT
AND WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA AND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. CURRENTLY HAVE
LEFT THE WIND CHILL WATCH UP AS IS AND AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT WE WILL BE ABLE TO ADJUST TIMING A LITTLE BETTER. THEREFORE
WILL LEAVE THIS FOR A LATER SHIFT TO ISSUE EVEN THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN ITS NECESSITY. SOME OF THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS APPROACH-40
F ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. TO THE SOUTH IT WONT BE MUCH BETTER WITH
-20 TO -30 F WILL BE MORE COMMON.

SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WARM UP ONLY SLIGHTLY INTO THE SINGLE NEGATIVE
DIGITS NORTH TO AROUND +5 TO +10 SOUTH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ANOTHER TERRIBLY COLD NIGHT AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES ABUTTING CANADA. THE
SILVER LINING DURING THIS TIME IS THAT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AND TRY AND PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE. WHETHER
THIS HAPPENS REMAINS TO BE SEEN BUT IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL HAVE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. AT THE SURFACE... A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE
A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY
MIX IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AS WARMER AIR
OVERRIDES THE COLDER AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. WENT
WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ON WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS WE STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WE MAY SEE
A WARMER DAY ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BY
THURSDAY WITH THE COLDEST AIR DAMMING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT US NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKED
LIKE ANOTHER IDEAL TIME TO USE A NON-DIURNAL CURVE AS A WARM
FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY.

LONG TERM... MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S FOR THE BAYS THROUGH 8 AM AND OUTER
WATERS THROUGH NOON. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS
UNTIL 10 AM.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/BORDERLINE GALES WILL BE NEEDED
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MEZ007>009.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR MEZ012>014-018>022.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ022-027-028.
NH...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NHZ001>003.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NHZ004>013-015.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANES/SINSABAUGH
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT/SINSABAUGH
SHORT TERM...SINSABAUGH
LONG TERM...HANES
AVIATION...HANES/SINSABAUGH
MARINE...HANES/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KGYX 121558 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1058 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL DISSIPATE
INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MAINE BY SATURDAY
MORNING. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW IN IT`S
WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND WILL
CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
NIGHT AND WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH
WESTERN NEW NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO EASTERN QUEBEC BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11AM UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE LATE THIS MORNING WITH
BRIGHT SUN HELPING TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY REBOUND THROUGH THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND INTO THE LOW TEENS. UPDATED FOR NEAR TERM
TRENDS...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE TEENS. WILL BE
CONSIDERING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR SNOW ALONG THE MIDCOAST
THIS AFTERNOON AS 12Z NAM/GFS CONSISTENTLY BULLSEYE THE PENOBSCOT
BAY REGION BY LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY. MORE ON
THIS...THIS AFTERNOON.

9AM UPDATE...HAVE CANCELLED WIND CHILL ADVISORY AS TEMPERATURES
REBOUND THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...WILL TRANSITION ONGOING WIND
CHILL WATCHES TO WARNINGS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY CHANGES TO
THE NEAR TERM GRIDS INCLUDE CLEARING OUT ALL CLOUD COVER FOR THE
MORNING HOURS AS CRYSTAL CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE AREA THIS
MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM.

PREVIOUS BELOW...

SHALLOW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. MAY SEE A
STRAY SNOW SHOWER...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO SEE A DRY DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER MID TEENS NORTH AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY OPEN INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH AS IT
SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. TROUGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED
ON THE MID COAST AREA WHERE INCREASING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A LOCALIZED AREA OF SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. CARIBOU STICKING WITH WATCHES AT THIS POINT AND SO
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT THE MODELS BEFORE
DECIDING ON HEADLINES. EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY ON SATURDAY.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID TEENS SOUTH.

TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ON SATURDAY IN FAR
EASTERN COASTAL ZONES BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF LATER IN THE DAY.
LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
AS NORTHWEST GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME
SUNNY BREAKS IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT MOST OF WESTERN MAINE
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS OF 5 TO 15 NORTH AND IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS EXTREMELY COLD WITH THE
POLAR VORTEX DIPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL POUR INTO THE REGION WITH SPRAWLING DENSE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DOMINATING THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND MOST
OF MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE NEGATIVE NUMBERS
AREAWIDE WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY IN THE LOWER NEGATIVE 20S.

LOOKING AT NAEFS AND GEFS ANOMALY INDICATORS FOR THIS EVENT SHOWS
JUST HOW COLD THIS AIRMASS IS. THE NAEFS CLIMATOLOGICAL
PERCENTILES FOR GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES INDICATE
MINIMUMS FOR MOST HEIGHTS AROUND SUNDAY AT 00Z AND 06Z. THIS
MEANS THAT WE ARE FORECASTING AN EVENT HAS NOT OCCURRED WITHIN
THE NAEFS 1979-2009 CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALSO THE
NAEFS R INTERVAL IS OUTSIDE CLIMATOLOGY AT 500MB OVER OUR REGION
AND JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

NOT SURPRISINGLY PWATS ARE ALSO FORECASTED TO BE IN THE BOTTOM
ONE PERCENTILE FOR THE NAEFS CLIMATE RECORD. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
COME TO AN END QUICKLY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM
THE WEST. NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE DEPARTING ARCTIC FRONT
AND WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA AND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. CURRENTLY HAVE
LEFT THE WIND CHILL WATCH UP AS IS AND AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT WE WILL BE ABLE TO ADJUST TIMING A LITTLE BETTER. THEREFORE
WILL LEAVE THIS FOR A LATER SHIFT TO ISSUE EVEN THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN ITS NECESSITY. SOME OF THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS APPROACH-40
F ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. TO THE SOUTH IT WONT BE MUCH BETTER WITH
-20 TO -30 F WILL BE MORE COMMON.

SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WARM UP ONLY SLIGHTLY INTO THE SINGLE NEGATIVE
DIGITS NORTH TO AROUND +5 TO +10 SOUTH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ANOTHER TERRIBLY COLD NIGHT AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES ABUTTING CANADA. THE
SILVER LINING DURING THIS TIME IS THAT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AND TRY AND PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE. WHETHER
THIS HAPPENS REMAINS TO BE SEEN BUT IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL HAVE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. AT THE SURFACE... A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE
A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY
MIX IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AS WARMER AIR
OVERRIDES THE COLDER AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. WENT
WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ON WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS WE STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WE MAY SEE
A WARMER DAY ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BY
THURSDAY WITH THE COLDEST AIR DAMMING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT US NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKED
LIKE ANOTHER IDEAL TIME TO USE A NON-DIURNAL CURVE AS A WARM
FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY.

LONG TERM... MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S FOR THE BAYS THROUGH 8 AM AND OUTER
WATERS THROUGH NOON. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS
UNTIL 10 AM.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/BORDERLINE GALES WILL BE NEEDED
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MEZ007>009.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR MEZ012>014-018>022.
NH...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NHZ001>003.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NHZ004>013-015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANES/SINSABAUGH
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT/SINSABAUGH
SHORT TERM...SINSABAUGH
LONG TERM...HANES
AVIATION...HANES/SINSABAUGH
MARINE...HANES/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KBOX 121441
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
941 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY BUT VERY COLD WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR TODAY.  AN OCEAN STORM WILL
TRACK WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT BUT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL DELIVER
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 35 BELOW ZERO LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING!  FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A STORM WILL
LIKELY BRING SNOW QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND TO
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN INLAND AS MUCH MILDER AIR MOVES INTO NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...
UPDATED T/TD GRIDS FOR CURRENT OBS/TRENDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON
TRACK.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL COME TO AN END LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER AND
EVEN MORE INTENSE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. NOT TOO MUCH MODERATION
OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON AS 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN BELOW -15C.
THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO ONLY RECOVER INTO THE 20 TO 25
DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER TEENS HIGHER TERRAIN BUT
WINDS WILL BECOME RELATIVELY LIGHT. SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING
SHOULD GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH COLD SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
*** ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS ***

*** BITTERLY COLD AIR INVADES THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
  STRONG WIND GUSTS AND RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES ***


TONIGHT...

AN INTERESTING SETUP FOR TONIGHT AS AN OCEAN STORM WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.  AT THE SAME
TIME...POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.  THIS WILL SETUP AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING BACK INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  THE RESULT WILL BE A
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST OMEGA ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 MICROBARS
PER SECOND.  WILL ALSO LIKELY HAVE SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WITH LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW RESULTING IN OCEAN INDUCED CAPES BETWEEN 400
AND 500 J/KG.  OVERALL THINK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS A GOOD BET FOR
MOST OF THE CAPE/VINEYARD WITH A LOW RISK OF 4 INCHES.  WILL ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THESE LOCATIONS...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY
HAVE TO CONSIDER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. LIFT/FORCING PERSISTS A
BIT LONGER ACROSS NANTUCKET AND WITH A PERIOD OF MODEST
SNOWGROWTH...FEEL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS REASONABLE AND WILL HOIST A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THEM.  BULK OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO FALL
BETWEEN 9 PM AND 5 AM...BUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO MID
MORNING SAT.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY EXTEND BACK INTO RHODE ISLAND/EASTERN
MA WITH MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST.  A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR MAINLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE WITH UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS CAPE/NANTUCKET.

SATURDAY...

ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING.  IT MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...BUT THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE THE DANGEROUSLY COLD AIRMASS THAT WILL INVADE THE REGION.
MIDDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL RAPIDLY FALL
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  IN FACT...BY 00Z SUNDAY 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE DOWN TO RARE VALUES OF -26 TO -30C FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND STANDARDS. THE RESULT WILL BE EARLY SAT EVENING TEMPS
ALREADY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION
EXPECT EXCELLENT MIXING.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO SAT NIGHT.  WE ALREADY ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
CAPE COD/NANTUCKET GIVEN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AS ARCTIC AIR
STREAMS IN OVER THE RELATIVELY MILD OCEAN.  WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR A TIME ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...BUT APPEARED TO
MARGINAL TO ISSUE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*** DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT ***

HIGHLIGHTS...

* BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
 WEEKEND
* SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN LIKELY TUE AND TUE NIGHT

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

MODELS CONTINUE AGREE WELL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DEEP
AMPLIFIED FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
SEASON TO ARRIVE BY LATE SAT...WILL THEN TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL
FLOW AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOOKS TO REGAIN CONTROL.
HOWEVER...WITH SOME LINK TO A VORTEX HOVERING AROUND THE QUEEN
ELIZABETH ISLANDS...THE WARMING TREND WILL NOT LAST...AND GIVE WAY
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
GIVEN THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT...A GENERAL BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A BASELINE FOR ALL BUT THE SRN STREAM
DOMINANT SYSTEM MON-TUE. A BLEND OF ENSEMBLES WILL BE USED FOR
THIS FEATURE DUE TO TRACK DISCREPANCIES.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
REINFORCING ARCTIC SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROF ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE SEVERAL
CONSEQUENCES. IT WILL ALLOW THE DEEPEST OF THE COLD AIR TO SPILL
ACROSS THE REGION...NEARING -30C AT H85. AT THE SAME TIME THE
STRONG MID LVL COLD ADVECTION AND INCREASED ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE
WILL LEAD TO INCREASED WIND ACROSS THE REGION...EXACERBATING AN
ALREADY VERY COLD SITUATION. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO ALREADY BE NEAR
OR BELOW 0F IN THE INTERIOR BY EVENING AND ONLY DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW 0F THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
INCREASED NW FLOW AT THE SFC...WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH AT
TIMES...WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -20F AND
-30F OR EVEN -35F IN SPOTS. WILL BE UPGRADING INTERIOR MA/CT AND
RI TO WIND CHILL WARNINGS WITH THIS UPDATE...BUT LEAVE WATCHES
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE MORE UNCERTAINTY LIE. WILL EXPAND THE
WATCH TO INCLUDE CAPE COD...AS CURRENT NUMBERS SUGGEST IT COULD BE
CLOSE THERE AS WELL. THE HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE 0F ON SUN...SO THE COLD WIND CHILLS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER WELL INTO THE DAY IN SPITE OF MAINLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS.

THE FINAL ISSUE OF NOTE...IS THAT IT WILL TURN MID LVL WINDS
TOWARD THE N. IN SPITE OF THE FLOW REMAINING MORE NW AT THE SFC.
THIS MAY ALLOW A LONG ENOUGH FETCH ACROSS ANOMALOUSLY WARM GULF OF
MAINE WATERS TO YIELD A HIGHER RISK FOR OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE COD. WITH SST-H85 DELTA-T VALUES NEARING
30C AND NORMALIZED CAPE VALUES AROUND 0.3 WILL NEED TO WATCH IF
ANY BANDS SETUP...ESPECIALLY AS AN INVERTED TROF FROM THE MAINE
COAST SHIFTS N. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
VERY DESTABILIZED LOW LVLS.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING IN AND CROSSING THE REGION...YIELDING
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SOME WARMING. H92 TEMPS REBOUND BACK
CLOSER TO -10C...OR AT LEAST CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. AFTER A
COLD START WITH SEVERAL SITES STILL BELOW 0F /THANKS TO SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING/ HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE STARTING TO LEAN CLOSER TO AN INSIDE RUNNER
LOW PRES SYSTEM WITH TIES TO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE THANKS TO ITS
STRONGER SRN STREAM INFLUENCE. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE TREND
SET FORTH BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...AND LEAN THE FORECAST IN
THIS DIRECTION. THIS IS BETTER NEWS AS IT DOES NOT PROMOTE GOOD
COLD AIR DAMMING. THEREFORE...THERMAL PROFILES ON BUFKIT SUGGESTS
AN INITIAL SNOWY START LATE MON NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO AN ALL
RAIN EVENT BY TUE. 40-50 KT LLJ AND PWATS NEARLY 2 STD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL SUPPORT THE HIGH QPF MODELS CURRENTLY PROJECT...SO IT
COULD BE THAT LIQUID TOTALS OF AN INCH OR EVEN MORE ARE POSSIBLE
BY THE TIME THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT TUE NIGHT. CERTAINLY SOMETHING
TO WATCH GIVEN IT WILL BE A MIXED PRECIP EVENT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN.

WED INTO FRI...
SECOND ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WED. THIS AIRMASS IS NOT NEARLY AS DEEPLY COLD
AS THIS WEEKEND/S AIRMASS. H85 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -22C ON
AVERAGE...SUPPORTED BY ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS MEANS TEMPS WILL
CERTAINLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS DANGEROUS AS THIS
WEEKEND/S. WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND CHILL VALUES REACHING
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR SOME MAINLY WED NIGHT INTO THU...WHEN WINDS
ARE AT THEIR STRONGEST. SLIGHT MODERATION EXPECTED BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SW.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
SNOW DEVELOPS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BRINGING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. ACROSS
THE REST OF THE REGION A BROKEN DECK OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR CIGS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER OTHER THAN PERHAPS A PASSING SNOW SHOWER OR
TWO.

SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW END VFR TO MARGINAL
MVFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE.  MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY BUT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SAT AM.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS PICKUP TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR INLAND...WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN OCEAN EFFECT
CIGS/SNOWS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS WITH
WIND GUSTS 20-30 KT POSSIBLE UNTIL MID DAY SUN.

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
BECOMING IFR WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN WITH AREAS OF FOG LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT MAY RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS STILL GUSTING OVER 30 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVES OVER THE RELATIVELY MILD OCEAN.
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING AND DROP BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY NOON...AS COLD ADVECTION COMES TO AN
END AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST.  FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES CONTINUE
THROUGH 8 AM...BUT SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AS WINDS
DIMINISH.

TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT...BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP
BY DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY...ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH EXTREME COLD ADVECTION
OVER THE WATERS.  PRETTY MUCH A SLAM DUNK ON NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS ALL WATERS.  HAVE HOISTED GALE HEADLINES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE AIRMASS IS SO COLD
THAT MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED BY EARLY
SAT EVENING.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

*** GALE FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED SAT EVENING
 INTO EARLY SUN ***

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG AND BITTERLY COLD NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO GALE FORCE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. GALE WARNINGS AND
FREEZING SPRAY WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS RISK. CONDITIONS
DROP TO SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS BY LATE SUN. OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALL
IS LIKELY ACROSS SOME OF THE OTHER EASTERN WATERS.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW
ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO DROP BY EARLY MON MORNING WITH
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER TO FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF MON.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE SW. WINDS
AND SEAS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS AS EARLY AS TUE MORNING
AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME RAIN/FOG MAY LEAD TO LOWER
VISIBILITIES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. RECORD COLD
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. HERE ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH...

BOSTON.......15/1979 - 14/1916
HARTFORD.....11/1979 - 11/1979
PROVIDENCE...10/1979 - 10/1979
WORCESTER.... 8/1899 -  7/1979
BLUE HILL.... 9/1899 - 10/1979

RECORD COLD LOWS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH - 15TH...

BOSTON...... -3/1967 -  -3/1934 - -14/1943
HARTFORD.... -7/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943
PROVIDENCE.. -5/1967 -  -7/1979 - -14/1943
WORCESTER...-12/1967 - -11/1979 - -19/1943
BLUE HILL...-10/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ002>019-026.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ020>022.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ024.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ022-024.
RI...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
     RIZ001>004.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR RIZ005>007.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
     SUNDAY MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-250-251.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 121414 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
914 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL DISSIPATE
INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MAINE BY SATURDAY
MORNING. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW IN IT`S
WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND WILL
CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
NIGHT AND WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH
WESTERN NEW NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO EASTERN QUEBEC BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9AM UPDATE...HAVE CANCELLED WIND CHILL ADVISORY AS TEMPERATURES
REBOUND THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...WILL TRANSITION ONGOING WIND
CHILL WATCHES TO WARNINGS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY CHANGES TO
THE NEAR TERM GRIDS INCLUDE CLEARING OUT ALL CLOUD COVER FOR THE
MORNING HOURS AS CRYSTAL CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE AREA THIS
MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM.

PREVIOUS BELOW...

SHALLOW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. MAY SEE A
STRAY SNOW SHOWER...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO SEE A DRY DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER MID TEENS NORTH AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY OPEN INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH AS IT
SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. TROUGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED
ON THE MID COAST AREA WHERE INCREASING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A LOCALIZED AREA OF SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. CARIBOU STICKING WITH WATCHES AT THIS POINT AND SO
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT THE MODELS BEFORE
DECIDING ON HEADLINES. EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY ON SATURDAY.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID TEENS SOUTH.

TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ON SATURDAY IN FAR
EASTERN COASTAL ZONES BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF LATER IN THE DAY.
LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
AS NORTHWEST GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME
SUNNY BREAKS IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT MOST OF WESTERN MAINE
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS OF 5 TO 15 NORTH AND IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS EXTREMELY COLD WITH THE
POLAR VORTEX DIPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL POUR INTO THE REGION WITH SPRAWLING DENSE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DOMINATING THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND MOST
OF MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE NEGATIVE NUMBERS
AREAWIDE WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY IN THE LOWER NEGATIVE 20S.

LOOKING AT NAEFS AND GEFS ANOMALY INDICATORS FOR THIS EVENT SHOWS
JUST HOW COLD THIS AIRMASS IS. THE NAEFS CLIMATOLOGICAL
PERCENTILES FOR GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES INDICATE
MINIMUMS FOR MOST HEIGHTS AROUND SUNDAY AT 00Z AND 06Z. THIS
MEANS THAT WE ARE FORECASTING AN EVENT HAS NOT OCCURRED WITHIN
THE NAEFS 1979-2009 CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALSO THE
NAEFS R INTERVAL IS OUTSIDE CLIMATOLOGY AT 500MB OVER OUR REGION
AND JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

NOT SURPRISINGLY PWATS ARE ALSO FORECASTED TO BE IN THE BOTTOM
ONE PERCENTILE FOR THE NAEFS CLIMATE RECORD. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
COME TO AN END QUICKLY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM
THE WEST. NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE DEPARTING ARCTIC FRONT
AND WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA AND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. CURRENTLY HAVE
LEFT THE WIND CHILL WATCH UP AS IS AND AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT WE WILL BE ABLE TO ADJUST TIMING A LITTLE BETTER. THEREFORE
WILL LEAVE THIS FOR A LATER SHIFT TO ISSUE EVEN THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN ITS NECESSITY. SOME OF THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS APPROACH-40
F ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. TO THE SOUTH IT WONT BE MUCH BETTER WITH
-20 TO -30 F WILL BE MORE COMMON.

SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WARM UP ONLY SLIGHTLY INTO THE SINGLE NEGATIVE
DIGITS NORTH TO AROUND +5 TO +10 SOUTH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ANOTHER TERRIBLY COLD NIGHT AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES ABUTTING CANADA. THE
SILVER LINING DURING THIS TIME IS THAT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AND TRY AND PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE. WHETHER
THIS HAPPENS REMAINS TO BE SEEN BUT IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL HAVE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. AT THE SURFACE... A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE
A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY
MIX IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AS WARMER AIR
OVERRIDES THE COLDER AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. WENT
WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ON WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS WE STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WE MAY SEE
A WARMER DAY ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BY
THURSDAY WITH THE COLDEST AIR DAMMING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT US NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKED
LIKE ANOTHER IDEAL TIME TO USE A NON-DIURNAL CURVE AS A WARM
FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY.

LONG TERM... MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S FOR THE BAYS THROUGH 8 AM AND OUTER
WATERS THROUGH NOON. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS
UNTIL 10 AM.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/BORDERLINE GALES WILL BE NEEDED
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR MEZ012>014-018>022.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MEZ007>009.
NH...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NHZ004>013-015.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NHZ001>003.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANES/SINSABAUGH
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT/SINSABAUGH
SHORT TERM...SINSABAUGH
LONG TERM...HANES
AVIATION...HANES/SINSABAUGH
MARINE...HANES/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KGYX 121202
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
702 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL DISSIPATE
INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MAINE BY SATURDAY
MORNING. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW IN IT`S
WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND WILL
CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
NIGHT AND WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH
WESTERN NEW NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO EASTERN QUEBEC BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&
12Z UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO DROP SCA`S FOR THE BAYS. SCA`S REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON FOR OUTER WATERS. ASIDE FROM A FEW TEMP/TD TWEAKS NO
OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHALLOW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. MAY SEE A
STRAY SNOW SHOWER...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO SEE A DRY DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER MID TEENS NORTH AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY OPEN INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH AS IT
SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. TROUGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED
ON THE MID COAST AREA WHERE INCREASING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A LOCALIZED AREA OF SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. CARIBOU STICKING WITH WATCHES AT THIS POINT AND SO
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT THE MODELS BEFORE
DECIDING ON HEADLINES. EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY ON SATURDAY.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID TEENS SOUTH.

TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ON SATURDAY IN FAR
EASTERN COASTAL ZONES BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF LATER IN THE DAY.
LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
AS NORTHWEST GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME
SUNNY BREAKS IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT MOST OF WESTERN MAINE
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS OF 5 TO 15 NORTH AND IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS EXTREMELY COLD WITH THE
POLAR VORTEX DIPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL POUR INTO THE REGION WITH SPRAWLING DENSE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DOMINATING THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND MOST
OF MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE NEGATIVE NUMBERS
AREAWIDE WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY IN THE LOWER NEGATIVE 20S.

LOOKING AT NAEFS AND GEFS ANOMALY INDICATORS FOR THIS EVENT SHOWS
JUST HOW COLD THIS AIRMASS IS. THE NAEFS CLIMATOLOGICAL
PERCENTILES FOR GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES INDICATE
MINIMUMS FOR MOST HEIGHTS AROUND SUNDAY AT 00Z AND 06Z. THIS
MEANS THAT WE ARE FORECASTING AN EVENT HAS NOT OCCURRED WITHIN
THE NAEFS 1979-2009 CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALSO THE
NAEFS R INTERVAL IS OUTSIDE CLIMATOLOGY AT 500MB OVER OUR REGION
AND JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

NOT SURPRISINGLY PWATS ARE ALSO FORECASTED TO BE IN THE BOTTOM
ONE PERCENTILE FOR THE NAEFS CLIMATE RECORD. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
COME TO AN END QUICKLY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM
THE WEST. NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE DEPARTING ARCTIC FRONT
AND WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA AND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. CURRENTLY HAVE
LEFT THE WIND CHILL WATCH UP AS IS AND AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT WE WILL BE ABLE TO ADJUST TIMING A LITTLE BETTER. THEREFORE
WILL LEAVE THIS FOR A LATER SHIFT TO ISSUE EVEN THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN ITS NECESSITY. SOME OF THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS APPROACH-40
F ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. TO THE SOUTH IT WONT BE MUCH BETTER WITH
-20 TO -30 F WILL BE MORE COMMON.

SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WARM UP ONLY SLIGHTLY INTO THE SINGLE NEGATIVE
DIGITS NORTH TO AROUND +5 TO +10 SOUTH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ANOTHER TERRIBLY COLD NIGHT AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES ABUTTING CANADA. THE
SILVER LINING DURING THIS TIME IS THAT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AND TRY AND PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE. WHETHER
THIS HAPPENS REMAINS TO BE SEEN BUT IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL HAVE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. AT THE SURFACE... A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE
A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY
MIX IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AS WARMER AIR
OVERRIDES THE COLDER AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. WENT
WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ON WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS WE STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WE MAY SEE
A WARMER DAY ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BY
THURSDAY WITH THE COLDEST AIR DAMMING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT US NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKED
LIKE ANOTHER IDEAL TIME TO USE A NON-DIURNAL CURVE AS A WARM
FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY.

LONG TERM... MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S FOR THE BAYS THROUGH 8 AM AND OUTER
WATERS THROUGH NOON. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS
UNTIL 10 AM.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/BORDERLINE GALES WILL BE NEEDED
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ012>014-018>022.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR MEZ007>009.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ006-008>010-012-013-015.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NHZ001>005-007-011.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 121202
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
702 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL DISSIPATE
INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MAINE BY SATURDAY
MORNING. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW IN IT`S
WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND WILL
CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
NIGHT AND WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH
WESTERN NEW NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO EASTERN QUEBEC BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&
12Z UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO DROP SCA`S FOR THE BAYS. SCA`S REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON FOR OUTER WATERS. ASIDE FROM A FEW TEMP/TD TWEAKS NO
OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHALLOW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. MAY SEE A
STRAY SNOW SHOWER...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO SEE A DRY DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER MID TEENS NORTH AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY OPEN INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH AS IT
SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. TROUGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED
ON THE MID COAST AREA WHERE INCREASING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A LOCALIZED AREA OF SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. CARIBOU STICKING WITH WATCHES AT THIS POINT AND SO
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT THE MODELS BEFORE
DECIDING ON HEADLINES. EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY ON SATURDAY.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID TEENS SOUTH.

TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ON SATURDAY IN FAR
EASTERN COASTAL ZONES BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF LATER IN THE DAY.
LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
AS NORTHWEST GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME
SUNNY BREAKS IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT MOST OF WESTERN MAINE
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS OF 5 TO 15 NORTH AND IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS EXTREMELY COLD WITH THE
POLAR VORTEX DIPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL POUR INTO THE REGION WITH SPRAWLING DENSE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DOMINATING THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND MOST
OF MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE NEGATIVE NUMBERS
AREAWIDE WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY IN THE LOWER NEGATIVE 20S.

LOOKING AT NAEFS AND GEFS ANOMALY INDICATORS FOR THIS EVENT SHOWS
JUST HOW COLD THIS AIRMASS IS. THE NAEFS CLIMATOLOGICAL
PERCENTILES FOR GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES INDICATE
MINIMUMS FOR MOST HEIGHTS AROUND SUNDAY AT 00Z AND 06Z. THIS
MEANS THAT WE ARE FORECASTING AN EVENT HAS NOT OCCURRED WITHIN
THE NAEFS 1979-2009 CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALSO THE
NAEFS R INTERVAL IS OUTSIDE CLIMATOLOGY AT 500MB OVER OUR REGION
AND JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

NOT SURPRISINGLY PWATS ARE ALSO FORECASTED TO BE IN THE BOTTOM
ONE PERCENTILE FOR THE NAEFS CLIMATE RECORD. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
COME TO AN END QUICKLY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM
THE WEST. NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE DEPARTING ARCTIC FRONT
AND WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA AND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. CURRENTLY HAVE
LEFT THE WIND CHILL WATCH UP AS IS AND AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT WE WILL BE ABLE TO ADJUST TIMING A LITTLE BETTER. THEREFORE
WILL LEAVE THIS FOR A LATER SHIFT TO ISSUE EVEN THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN ITS NECESSITY. SOME OF THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS APPROACH-40
F ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. TO THE SOUTH IT WONT BE MUCH BETTER WITH
-20 TO -30 F WILL BE MORE COMMON.

SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WARM UP ONLY SLIGHTLY INTO THE SINGLE NEGATIVE
DIGITS NORTH TO AROUND +5 TO +10 SOUTH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ANOTHER TERRIBLY COLD NIGHT AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES ABUTTING CANADA. THE
SILVER LINING DURING THIS TIME IS THAT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AND TRY AND PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE. WHETHER
THIS HAPPENS REMAINS TO BE SEEN BUT IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL HAVE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. AT THE SURFACE... A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE
A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY
MIX IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AS WARMER AIR
OVERRIDES THE COLDER AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. WENT
WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ON WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS WE STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WE MAY SEE
A WARMER DAY ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BY
THURSDAY WITH THE COLDEST AIR DAMMING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT US NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKED
LIKE ANOTHER IDEAL TIME TO USE A NON-DIURNAL CURVE AS A WARM
FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY.

LONG TERM... MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S FOR THE BAYS THROUGH 8 AM AND OUTER
WATERS THROUGH NOON. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS
UNTIL 10 AM.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/BORDERLINE GALES WILL BE NEEDED
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ012>014-018>022.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR MEZ007>009.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ006-008>010-012-013-015.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NHZ001>005-007-011.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 121202
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
702 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL DISSIPATE
INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MAINE BY SATURDAY
MORNING. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW IN IT`S
WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND WILL
CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
NIGHT AND WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH
WESTERN NEW NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO EASTERN QUEBEC BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&
12Z UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO DROP SCA`S FOR THE BAYS. SCA`S REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON FOR OUTER WATERS. ASIDE FROM A FEW TEMP/TD TWEAKS NO
OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHALLOW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. MAY SEE A
STRAY SNOW SHOWER...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO SEE A DRY DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER MID TEENS NORTH AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY OPEN INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH AS IT
SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. TROUGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED
ON THE MID COAST AREA WHERE INCREASING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A LOCALIZED AREA OF SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. CARIBOU STICKING WITH WATCHES AT THIS POINT AND SO
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT THE MODELS BEFORE
DECIDING ON HEADLINES. EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY ON SATURDAY.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID TEENS SOUTH.

TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ON SATURDAY IN FAR
EASTERN COASTAL ZONES BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF LATER IN THE DAY.
LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
AS NORTHWEST GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME
SUNNY BREAKS IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT MOST OF WESTERN MAINE
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS OF 5 TO 15 NORTH AND IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS EXTREMELY COLD WITH THE
POLAR VORTEX DIPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL POUR INTO THE REGION WITH SPRAWLING DENSE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DOMINATING THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND MOST
OF MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE NEGATIVE NUMBERS
AREAWIDE WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY IN THE LOWER NEGATIVE 20S.

LOOKING AT NAEFS AND GEFS ANOMALY INDICATORS FOR THIS EVENT SHOWS
JUST HOW COLD THIS AIRMASS IS. THE NAEFS CLIMATOLOGICAL
PERCENTILES FOR GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES INDICATE
MINIMUMS FOR MOST HEIGHTS AROUND SUNDAY AT 00Z AND 06Z. THIS
MEANS THAT WE ARE FORECASTING AN EVENT HAS NOT OCCURRED WITHIN
THE NAEFS 1979-2009 CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALSO THE
NAEFS R INTERVAL IS OUTSIDE CLIMATOLOGY AT 500MB OVER OUR REGION
AND JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

NOT SURPRISINGLY PWATS ARE ALSO FORECASTED TO BE IN THE BOTTOM
ONE PERCENTILE FOR THE NAEFS CLIMATE RECORD. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
COME TO AN END QUICKLY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM
THE WEST. NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE DEPARTING ARCTIC FRONT
AND WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA AND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. CURRENTLY HAVE
LEFT THE WIND CHILL WATCH UP AS IS AND AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT WE WILL BE ABLE TO ADJUST TIMING A LITTLE BETTER. THEREFORE
WILL LEAVE THIS FOR A LATER SHIFT TO ISSUE EVEN THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN ITS NECESSITY. SOME OF THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS APPROACH-40
F ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. TO THE SOUTH IT WONT BE MUCH BETTER WITH
-20 TO -30 F WILL BE MORE COMMON.

SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WARM UP ONLY SLIGHTLY INTO THE SINGLE NEGATIVE
DIGITS NORTH TO AROUND +5 TO +10 SOUTH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ANOTHER TERRIBLY COLD NIGHT AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES ABUTTING CANADA. THE
SILVER LINING DURING THIS TIME IS THAT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AND TRY AND PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE. WHETHER
THIS HAPPENS REMAINS TO BE SEEN BUT IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL HAVE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. AT THE SURFACE... A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE
A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY
MIX IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AS WARMER AIR
OVERRIDES THE COLDER AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. WENT
WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ON WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS WE STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WE MAY SEE
A WARMER DAY ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BY
THURSDAY WITH THE COLDEST AIR DAMMING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT US NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKED
LIKE ANOTHER IDEAL TIME TO USE A NON-DIURNAL CURVE AS A WARM
FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY.

LONG TERM... MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S FOR THE BAYS THROUGH 8 AM AND OUTER
WATERS THROUGH NOON. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS
UNTIL 10 AM.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/BORDERLINE GALES WILL BE NEEDED
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ012>014-018>022.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR MEZ007>009.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ006-008>010-012-013-015.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NHZ001>005-007-011.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KBOX 121201
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
701 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY BUT VERY COLD WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR TODAY.  AN OCEAN STORM WILL
TRACK WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT BUT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL DELIVER
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 35 BELOW ZERO LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING!  FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A STORM WILL
LIKELY BRING SNOW QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND TO
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN INLAND AS MUCH MILDER AIR MOVES INTO NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 AM UPDATE...
SKC CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. WITH A COLD
START AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
HIGHS TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. TIMING/CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME SO
ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO BRING TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A BITTERLY COLD START TO THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCALES AND EVEN A FEW BELOW ZERO
READINGS IN WESTERN MA.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL COME TO AN END LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER AND
EVEN MORE INTENSE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.  NOT TOO MUCH MODERATION OCCURS
THIS AFTERNOON AS 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN BELOW -15C. THEREFORE...EXPECT
HIGH TEMPS TO ONLY RECOVER INTO THE 20 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WINDS WILL BECOME RELATIVELY LIGHT. SUNNY SKIES THIS
MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH COLD SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
*** ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS ***

*** BITTERLY COLD AIR INVADES THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
  STRONG WIND GUSTS AND RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES ***


TONIGHT...

AN INTERESTING SETUP FOR TONIGHT AS AN OCEAN STORM WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.  AT THE SAME
TIME...POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.  THIS WILL SETUP AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING BACK INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  THE RESULT WILL BE A
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST OMEGA ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 MICROBARS
PER SECOND.  WILL ALSO LIKELY HAVE SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WITH LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW RESULTING IN OCEAN INDUCED CAPES BETWEEN 400
AND 500 J/KG.  OVERALL THINK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS A GOOD BET FOR
MOST OF THE CAPE/VINEYARD WITH A LOW RISK OF 4 INCHES.  WILL ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THESE LOCATIONS...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY
HAVE TO CONSIDER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. LIFT/FORCING PERSISTS A
BIT LONGER ACROSS NANTUCKET AND WITH A PERIOD OF MODEST
SNOWGROWTH...FEEL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS REASONABLE AND WILL HOIST A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THEM.  BULK OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO FALL
BETWEEN 9 PM AND 5 AM...BUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO MID
MORNING SAT.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY EXTEND BACK INTO RHODE ISLAND/EASTERN
MA WITH MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST.  A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR MAINLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE WITH UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS CAPE/NANTUCKET.

SATURDAY...

ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING.  IT MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...BUT THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE THE DANGEROUSLY COLD AIRMASS THAT WILL INVADE THE REGION.
MIDDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL RAPIDLY FALL
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  IN FACT...BY 00Z SUNDAY 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE DOWN TO RARE VALUES OF -26 TO -30C FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND STANDARDS. THE RESULT WILL BE EARLY SAT EVENING TEMPS
ALREADY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION
EXPECT EXCELLENT MIXING.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO SAT NIGHT.  WE ALREADY ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
CAPE COD/NANTUCKET GIVEN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AS ARCTIC AIR
STREAMS IN OVER THE RELATIVELY MILD OCEAN.  WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR A TIME ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...BUT APPEARED TO
MARGINAL TO ISSUE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*** DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT ***

HIGHLIGHTS...

* BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
 WEEKEND
* SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN LIKELY TUE AND TUE NIGHT

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

MODELS CONTINUE AGREE WELL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DEEP
AMPLIFIED FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
SEASON TO ARRIVE BY LATE SAT...WILL THEN TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL
FLOW AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOOKS TO REGAIN CONTROL.
HOWEVER...WITH SOME LINK TO A VORTEX HOVERING AROUND THE QUEEN
ELIZABETH ISLANDS...THE WARMING TREND WILL NOT LAST...AND GIVE WAY
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
GIVEN THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT...A GENERAL BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A BASELINE FOR ALL BUT THE SRN STREAM
DOMINANT SYSTEM MON-TUE. A BLEND OF ENSEMBLES WILL BE USED FOR
THIS FEATURE DUE TO TRACK DISCREPANCIES.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
REINFORCING ARCTIC SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROF ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE SEVERAL
CONSEQUENCES. IT WILL ALLOW THE DEEPEST OF THE COLD AIR TO SPILL
ACROSS THE REGION...NEARING -30C AT H85. AT THE SAME TIME THE
STRONG MID LVL COLD ADVECTION AND INCREASED ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE
WILL LEAD TO INCREASED WIND ACROSS THE REGION...EXACERBATING AN
ALREADY VERY COLD SITUATION. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO ALREADY BE NEAR
OR BELOW 0F IN THE INTERIOR BY EVENING AND ONLY DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW 0F THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
INCREASED NW FLOW AT THE SFC...WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH AT
TIMES...WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -20F AND
-30F OR EVEN -35F IN SPOTS. WILL BE UPGRADING INTERIOR MA/CT AND
RI TO WIND CHILL WARNINGS WITH THIS UPDATE...BUT LEAVE WATCHES
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE MORE UNCERTAINTY LIE. WILL EXPAND THE
WATCH TO INCLUDE CAPE COD...AS CURRENT NUMBERS SUGGEST IT COULD BE
CLOSE THERE AS WELL. THE HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE 0F ON SUN...SO THE COLD WIND CHILLS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER WELL INTO THE DAY IN SPITE OF MAINLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS.

THE FINAL ISSUE OF NOTE...IS THAT IT WILL TURN MID LVL WINDS
TOWARD THE N. IN SPITE OF THE FLOW REMAINING MORE NW AT THE SFC.
THIS MAY ALLOW A LONG ENOUGH FETCH ACROSS ANOMALOUSLY WARM GULF OF
MAINE WATERS TO YIELD A HIGHER RISK FOR OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE COD. WITH SST-H85 DELTA-T VALUES NEARING
30C AND NORMALIZED CAPE VALUES AROUND 0.3 WILL NEED TO WATCH IF
ANY BANDS SETUP...ESPECIALLY AS AN INVERTED TROF FROM THE MAINE
COAST SHIFTS N. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
VERY DESTABILIZED LOW LVLS.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING IN AND CROSSING THE REGION...YIELDING
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SOME WARMING. H92 TEMPS REBOUND BACK
CLOSER TO -10C...OR AT LEAST CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. AFTER A
COLD START WITH SEVERAL SITES STILL BELOW 0F /THANKS TO SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING/ HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE STARTING TO LEAN CLOSER TO AN INSIDE RUNNER
LOW PRES SYSTEM WITH TIES TO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE THANKS TO ITS
STRONGER SRN STREAM INFLUENCE. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE TREND
SET FORTH BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...AND LEAN THE FORECAST IN
THIS DIRECTION. THIS IS BETTER NEWS AS IT DOES NOT PROMOTE GOOD
COLD AIR DAMMING. THEREFORE...THERMAL PROFILES ON BUFKIT SUGGESTS
AN INITIAL SNOWY START LATE MON NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO AN ALL
RAIN EVENT BY TUE. 40-50 KT LLJ AND PWATS NEARLY 2 STD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL SUPPORT THE HIGH QPF MODELS CURRENTLY PROJECT...SO IT
COULD BE THAT LIQUID TOTALS OF AN INCH OR EVEN MORE ARE POSSIBLE
BY THE TIME THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT TUE NIGHT. CERTAINLY SOMETHING
TO WATCH GIVEN IT WILL BE A MIXED PRECIP EVENT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN.

WED INTO FRI...
SECOND ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WED. THIS AIRMASS IS NOT NEARLY AS DEEPLY COLD
AS THIS WEEKEND/S AIRMASS. H85 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -22C ON
AVERAGE...SUPPORTED BY ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS MEANS TEMPS WILL
CERTAINLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS DANGEROUS AS THIS
WEEKEND/S. WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND CHILL VALUES REACHING
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR SOME MAINLY WED NIGHT INTO THU...WHEN WINDS
ARE AT THEIR STRONGEST. SLIGHT MODERATION EXPECTED BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SW.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
SNOW DEVELOPS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BRINGING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. ACROSS
THE REST OF THE REGION A BROKEN DECK OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR CIGS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER OTHER THAN PERHAPS A PASSING SNOW SHOWER OR
TWO.

SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW END VFR TO MARGINAL
MVFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE.  MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY BUT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SAT AM.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS PICKUP TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR INLAND...WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN OCEAN EFFECT
CIGS/SNOWS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS WITH
WIND GUSTS 20-30 KT POSSIBLE UNTIL MID DAY SUN.

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
BECOMING IFR WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN WITH AREAS OF FOG LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT MAY RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS STILL GUSTING OVER 30 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVES OVER THE RELATIVELY MILD OCEAN.
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING AND DROP BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY NOON...AS COLD ADVECTION COMES TO AN
END AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST.  FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES CONTINUE
THROUGH 8 AM...BUT SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AS WINDS
DIMINISH.

TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT...BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP
BY DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY...ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH EXTREME COLD ADVECTION
OVER THE WATERS.  PRETTY MUCH A SLAM DUNK ON NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS ALL WATERS.  HAVE HOISTED GALE HEADLINES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE AIRMASS IS SO COLD
THAT MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED BY EARLY
SAT EVENING.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

*** GALE FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED SAT EVENING
 INTO EARLY SUN ***

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG AND BITTERLY COLD NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO GALE FORCE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. GALE WARNINGS AND
FREEZING SPRAY WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS RISK. CONDITIONS
DROP TO SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS BY LATE SUN. OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALL
IS LIKELY ACROSS SOME OF THE OTHER EASTERN WATERS.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW
ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO DROP BY EARLY MON MORNING WITH
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER TO FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF MON.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE SW. WINDS
AND SEAS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS AS EARLY AS TUE MORNING
AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME RAIN/FOG MAY LEAD TO LOWER
VISIBILITIES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. RECORD COLD
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. HERE ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH...

BOSTON.......15/1979 - 14/1916
HARTFORD.....11/1979 - 11/1979
PROVIDENCE...10/1979 - 10/1979
WORCESTER.... 8/1899 -  7/1979
BLUE HILL.... 9/1899 - 10/1979

RECORD COLD LOWS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH - 15TH...

BOSTON...... -3/1967 -  -3/1934 - -14/1943
HARTFORD.... -7/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943
PROVIDENCE.. -5/1967 -  -7/1979 - -14/1943
WORCESTER...-12/1967 - -11/1979 - -19/1943
BLUE HILL...-10/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ002>019-026.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ020>022.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ024.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ022-024.
RI...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
     RIZ001>004.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR RIZ005>007.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
     SUNDAY MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-250-251.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 121201
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
701 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY BUT VERY COLD WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR TODAY.  AN OCEAN STORM WILL
TRACK WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT BUT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL DELIVER
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 35 BELOW ZERO LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING!  FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A STORM WILL
LIKELY BRING SNOW QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND TO
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN INLAND AS MUCH MILDER AIR MOVES INTO NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 AM UPDATE...
SKC CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. WITH A COLD
START AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
HIGHS TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. TIMING/CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME SO
ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO BRING TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A BITTERLY COLD START TO THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCALES AND EVEN A FEW BELOW ZERO
READINGS IN WESTERN MA.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL COME TO AN END LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER AND
EVEN MORE INTENSE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.  NOT TOO MUCH MODERATION OCCURS
THIS AFTERNOON AS 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN BELOW -15C. THEREFORE...EXPECT
HIGH TEMPS TO ONLY RECOVER INTO THE 20 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WINDS WILL BECOME RELATIVELY LIGHT. SUNNY SKIES THIS
MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH COLD SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
*** ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS ***

*** BITTERLY COLD AIR INVADES THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
  STRONG WIND GUSTS AND RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES ***


TONIGHT...

AN INTERESTING SETUP FOR TONIGHT AS AN OCEAN STORM WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.  AT THE SAME
TIME...POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.  THIS WILL SETUP AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING BACK INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  THE RESULT WILL BE A
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST OMEGA ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 MICROBARS
PER SECOND.  WILL ALSO LIKELY HAVE SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WITH LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW RESULTING IN OCEAN INDUCED CAPES BETWEEN 400
AND 500 J/KG.  OVERALL THINK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS A GOOD BET FOR
MOST OF THE CAPE/VINEYARD WITH A LOW RISK OF 4 INCHES.  WILL ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THESE LOCATIONS...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY
HAVE TO CONSIDER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. LIFT/FORCING PERSISTS A
BIT LONGER ACROSS NANTUCKET AND WITH A PERIOD OF MODEST
SNOWGROWTH...FEEL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS REASONABLE AND WILL HOIST A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THEM.  BULK OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO FALL
BETWEEN 9 PM AND 5 AM...BUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO MID
MORNING SAT.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY EXTEND BACK INTO RHODE ISLAND/EASTERN
MA WITH MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST.  A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR MAINLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE WITH UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS CAPE/NANTUCKET.

SATURDAY...

ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING.  IT MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...BUT THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE THE DANGEROUSLY COLD AIRMASS THAT WILL INVADE THE REGION.
MIDDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL RAPIDLY FALL
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  IN FACT...BY 00Z SUNDAY 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE DOWN TO RARE VALUES OF -26 TO -30C FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND STANDARDS. THE RESULT WILL BE EARLY SAT EVENING TEMPS
ALREADY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION
EXPECT EXCELLENT MIXING.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO SAT NIGHT.  WE ALREADY ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
CAPE COD/NANTUCKET GIVEN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AS ARCTIC AIR
STREAMS IN OVER THE RELATIVELY MILD OCEAN.  WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR A TIME ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...BUT APPEARED TO
MARGINAL TO ISSUE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*** DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT ***

HIGHLIGHTS...

* BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
 WEEKEND
* SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN LIKELY TUE AND TUE NIGHT

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

MODELS CONTINUE AGREE WELL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DEEP
AMPLIFIED FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
SEASON TO ARRIVE BY LATE SAT...WILL THEN TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL
FLOW AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOOKS TO REGAIN CONTROL.
HOWEVER...WITH SOME LINK TO A VORTEX HOVERING AROUND THE QUEEN
ELIZABETH ISLANDS...THE WARMING TREND WILL NOT LAST...AND GIVE WAY
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
GIVEN THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT...A GENERAL BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A BASELINE FOR ALL BUT THE SRN STREAM
DOMINANT SYSTEM MON-TUE. A BLEND OF ENSEMBLES WILL BE USED FOR
THIS FEATURE DUE TO TRACK DISCREPANCIES.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
REINFORCING ARCTIC SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROF ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE SEVERAL
CONSEQUENCES. IT WILL ALLOW THE DEEPEST OF THE COLD AIR TO SPILL
ACROSS THE REGION...NEARING -30C AT H85. AT THE SAME TIME THE
STRONG MID LVL COLD ADVECTION AND INCREASED ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE
WILL LEAD TO INCREASED WIND ACROSS THE REGION...EXACERBATING AN
ALREADY VERY COLD SITUATION. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO ALREADY BE NEAR
OR BELOW 0F IN THE INTERIOR BY EVENING AND ONLY DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW 0F THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
INCREASED NW FLOW AT THE SFC...WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH AT
TIMES...WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -20F AND
-30F OR EVEN -35F IN SPOTS. WILL BE UPGRADING INTERIOR MA/CT AND
RI TO WIND CHILL WARNINGS WITH THIS UPDATE...BUT LEAVE WATCHES
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE MORE UNCERTAINTY LIE. WILL EXPAND THE
WATCH TO INCLUDE CAPE COD...AS CURRENT NUMBERS SUGGEST IT COULD BE
CLOSE THERE AS WELL. THE HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE 0F ON SUN...SO THE COLD WIND CHILLS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER WELL INTO THE DAY IN SPITE OF MAINLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS.

THE FINAL ISSUE OF NOTE...IS THAT IT WILL TURN MID LVL WINDS
TOWARD THE N. IN SPITE OF THE FLOW REMAINING MORE NW AT THE SFC.
THIS MAY ALLOW A LONG ENOUGH FETCH ACROSS ANOMALOUSLY WARM GULF OF
MAINE WATERS TO YIELD A HIGHER RISK FOR OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE COD. WITH SST-H85 DELTA-T VALUES NEARING
30C AND NORMALIZED CAPE VALUES AROUND 0.3 WILL NEED TO WATCH IF
ANY BANDS SETUP...ESPECIALLY AS AN INVERTED TROF FROM THE MAINE
COAST SHIFTS N. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
VERY DESTABILIZED LOW LVLS.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING IN AND CROSSING THE REGION...YIELDING
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SOME WARMING. H92 TEMPS REBOUND BACK
CLOSER TO -10C...OR AT LEAST CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. AFTER A
COLD START WITH SEVERAL SITES STILL BELOW 0F /THANKS TO SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING/ HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE STARTING TO LEAN CLOSER TO AN INSIDE RUNNER
LOW PRES SYSTEM WITH TIES TO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE THANKS TO ITS
STRONGER SRN STREAM INFLUENCE. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE TREND
SET FORTH BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...AND LEAN THE FORECAST IN
THIS DIRECTION. THIS IS BETTER NEWS AS IT DOES NOT PROMOTE GOOD
COLD AIR DAMMING. THEREFORE...THERMAL PROFILES ON BUFKIT SUGGESTS
AN INITIAL SNOWY START LATE MON NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO AN ALL
RAIN EVENT BY TUE. 40-50 KT LLJ AND PWATS NEARLY 2 STD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL SUPPORT THE HIGH QPF MODELS CURRENTLY PROJECT...SO IT
COULD BE THAT LIQUID TOTALS OF AN INCH OR EVEN MORE ARE POSSIBLE
BY THE TIME THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT TUE NIGHT. CERTAINLY SOMETHING
TO WATCH GIVEN IT WILL BE A MIXED PRECIP EVENT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN.

WED INTO FRI...
SECOND ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WED. THIS AIRMASS IS NOT NEARLY AS DEEPLY COLD
AS THIS WEEKEND/S AIRMASS. H85 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -22C ON
AVERAGE...SUPPORTED BY ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS MEANS TEMPS WILL
CERTAINLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS DANGEROUS AS THIS
WEEKEND/S. WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND CHILL VALUES REACHING
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR SOME MAINLY WED NIGHT INTO THU...WHEN WINDS
ARE AT THEIR STRONGEST. SLIGHT MODERATION EXPECTED BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SW.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
SNOW DEVELOPS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BRINGING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. ACROSS
THE REST OF THE REGION A BROKEN DECK OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR CIGS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER OTHER THAN PERHAPS A PASSING SNOW SHOWER OR
TWO.

SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW END VFR TO MARGINAL
MVFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE.  MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY BUT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SAT AM.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS PICKUP TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR INLAND...WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN OCEAN EFFECT
CIGS/SNOWS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS WITH
WIND GUSTS 20-30 KT POSSIBLE UNTIL MID DAY SUN.

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
BECOMING IFR WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN WITH AREAS OF FOG LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT MAY RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS STILL GUSTING OVER 30 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVES OVER THE RELATIVELY MILD OCEAN.
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING AND DROP BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY NOON...AS COLD ADVECTION COMES TO AN
END AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST.  FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES CONTINUE
THROUGH 8 AM...BUT SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AS WINDS
DIMINISH.

TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT...BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP
BY DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY...ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH EXTREME COLD ADVECTION
OVER THE WATERS.  PRETTY MUCH A SLAM DUNK ON NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS ALL WATERS.  HAVE HOISTED GALE HEADLINES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE AIRMASS IS SO COLD
THAT MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED BY EARLY
SAT EVENING.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

*** GALE FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED SAT EVENING
 INTO EARLY SUN ***

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG AND BITTERLY COLD NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO GALE FORCE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. GALE WARNINGS AND
FREEZING SPRAY WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS RISK. CONDITIONS
DROP TO SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS BY LATE SUN. OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALL
IS LIKELY ACROSS SOME OF THE OTHER EASTERN WATERS.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW
ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO DROP BY EARLY MON MORNING WITH
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER TO FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF MON.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE SW. WINDS
AND SEAS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS AS EARLY AS TUE MORNING
AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME RAIN/FOG MAY LEAD TO LOWER
VISIBILITIES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. RECORD COLD
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. HERE ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH...

BOSTON.......15/1979 - 14/1916
HARTFORD.....11/1979 - 11/1979
PROVIDENCE...10/1979 - 10/1979
WORCESTER.... 8/1899 -  7/1979
BLUE HILL.... 9/1899 - 10/1979

RECORD COLD LOWS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH - 15TH...

BOSTON...... -3/1967 -  -3/1934 - -14/1943
HARTFORD.... -7/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943
PROVIDENCE.. -5/1967 -  -7/1979 - -14/1943
WORCESTER...-12/1967 - -11/1979 - -19/1943
BLUE HILL...-10/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ002>019-026.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ020>022.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ024.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ022-024.
RI...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
     RIZ001>004.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR RIZ005>007.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
     SUNDAY MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-250-251.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 121201
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
701 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY BUT VERY COLD WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR TODAY.  AN OCEAN STORM WILL
TRACK WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT BUT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL DELIVER
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 35 BELOW ZERO LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING!  FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A STORM WILL
LIKELY BRING SNOW QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND TO
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN INLAND AS MUCH MILDER AIR MOVES INTO NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 AM UPDATE...
SKC CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. WITH A COLD
START AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
HIGHS TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. TIMING/CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME SO
ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO BRING TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A BITTERLY COLD START TO THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCALES AND EVEN A FEW BELOW ZERO
READINGS IN WESTERN MA.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL COME TO AN END LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER AND
EVEN MORE INTENSE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.  NOT TOO MUCH MODERATION OCCURS
THIS AFTERNOON AS 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN BELOW -15C. THEREFORE...EXPECT
HIGH TEMPS TO ONLY RECOVER INTO THE 20 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WINDS WILL BECOME RELATIVELY LIGHT. SUNNY SKIES THIS
MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH COLD SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
*** ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS ***

*** BITTERLY COLD AIR INVADES THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
  STRONG WIND GUSTS AND RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES ***


TONIGHT...

AN INTERESTING SETUP FOR TONIGHT AS AN OCEAN STORM WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.  AT THE SAME
TIME...POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.  THIS WILL SETUP AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING BACK INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  THE RESULT WILL BE A
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST OMEGA ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 MICROBARS
PER SECOND.  WILL ALSO LIKELY HAVE SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WITH LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW RESULTING IN OCEAN INDUCED CAPES BETWEEN 400
AND 500 J/KG.  OVERALL THINK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS A GOOD BET FOR
MOST OF THE CAPE/VINEYARD WITH A LOW RISK OF 4 INCHES.  WILL ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THESE LOCATIONS...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY
HAVE TO CONSIDER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. LIFT/FORCING PERSISTS A
BIT LONGER ACROSS NANTUCKET AND WITH A PERIOD OF MODEST
SNOWGROWTH...FEEL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS REASONABLE AND WILL HOIST A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THEM.  BULK OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO FALL
BETWEEN 9 PM AND 5 AM...BUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO MID
MORNING SAT.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY EXTEND BACK INTO RHODE ISLAND/EASTERN
MA WITH MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST.  A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR MAINLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE WITH UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS CAPE/NANTUCKET.

SATURDAY...

ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING.  IT MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...BUT THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE THE DANGEROUSLY COLD AIRMASS THAT WILL INVADE THE REGION.
MIDDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL RAPIDLY FALL
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  IN FACT...BY 00Z SUNDAY 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE DOWN TO RARE VALUES OF -26 TO -30C FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND STANDARDS. THE RESULT WILL BE EARLY SAT EVENING TEMPS
ALREADY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION
EXPECT EXCELLENT MIXING.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO SAT NIGHT.  WE ALREADY ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
CAPE COD/NANTUCKET GIVEN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AS ARCTIC AIR
STREAMS IN OVER THE RELATIVELY MILD OCEAN.  WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR A TIME ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...BUT APPEARED TO
MARGINAL TO ISSUE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*** DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT ***

HIGHLIGHTS...

* BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
 WEEKEND
* SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN LIKELY TUE AND TUE NIGHT

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

MODELS CONTINUE AGREE WELL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DEEP
AMPLIFIED FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
SEASON TO ARRIVE BY LATE SAT...WILL THEN TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL
FLOW AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOOKS TO REGAIN CONTROL.
HOWEVER...WITH SOME LINK TO A VORTEX HOVERING AROUND THE QUEEN
ELIZABETH ISLANDS...THE WARMING TREND WILL NOT LAST...AND GIVE WAY
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
GIVEN THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT...A GENERAL BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A BASELINE FOR ALL BUT THE SRN STREAM
DOMINANT SYSTEM MON-TUE. A BLEND OF ENSEMBLES WILL BE USED FOR
THIS FEATURE DUE TO TRACK DISCREPANCIES.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
REINFORCING ARCTIC SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROF ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE SEVERAL
CONSEQUENCES. IT WILL ALLOW THE DEEPEST OF THE COLD AIR TO SPILL
ACROSS THE REGION...NEARING -30C AT H85. AT THE SAME TIME THE
STRONG MID LVL COLD ADVECTION AND INCREASED ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE
WILL LEAD TO INCREASED WIND ACROSS THE REGION...EXACERBATING AN
ALREADY VERY COLD SITUATION. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO ALREADY BE NEAR
OR BELOW 0F IN THE INTERIOR BY EVENING AND ONLY DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW 0F THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
INCREASED NW FLOW AT THE SFC...WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH AT
TIMES...WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -20F AND
-30F OR EVEN -35F IN SPOTS. WILL BE UPGRADING INTERIOR MA/CT AND
RI TO WIND CHILL WARNINGS WITH THIS UPDATE...BUT LEAVE WATCHES
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE MORE UNCERTAINTY LIE. WILL EXPAND THE
WATCH TO INCLUDE CAPE COD...AS CURRENT NUMBERS SUGGEST IT COULD BE
CLOSE THERE AS WELL. THE HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE 0F ON SUN...SO THE COLD WIND CHILLS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER WELL INTO THE DAY IN SPITE OF MAINLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS.

THE FINAL ISSUE OF NOTE...IS THAT IT WILL TURN MID LVL WINDS
TOWARD THE N. IN SPITE OF THE FLOW REMAINING MORE NW AT THE SFC.
THIS MAY ALLOW A LONG ENOUGH FETCH ACROSS ANOMALOUSLY WARM GULF OF
MAINE WATERS TO YIELD A HIGHER RISK FOR OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE COD. WITH SST-H85 DELTA-T VALUES NEARING
30C AND NORMALIZED CAPE VALUES AROUND 0.3 WILL NEED TO WATCH IF
ANY BANDS SETUP...ESPECIALLY AS AN INVERTED TROF FROM THE MAINE
COAST SHIFTS N. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
VERY DESTABILIZED LOW LVLS.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING IN AND CROSSING THE REGION...YIELDING
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SOME WARMING. H92 TEMPS REBOUND BACK
CLOSER TO -10C...OR AT LEAST CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. AFTER A
COLD START WITH SEVERAL SITES STILL BELOW 0F /THANKS TO SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING/ HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE STARTING TO LEAN CLOSER TO AN INSIDE RUNNER
LOW PRES SYSTEM WITH TIES TO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE THANKS TO ITS
STRONGER SRN STREAM INFLUENCE. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE TREND
SET FORTH BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...AND LEAN THE FORECAST IN
THIS DIRECTION. THIS IS BETTER NEWS AS IT DOES NOT PROMOTE GOOD
COLD AIR DAMMING. THEREFORE...THERMAL PROFILES ON BUFKIT SUGGESTS
AN INITIAL SNOWY START LATE MON NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO AN ALL
RAIN EVENT BY TUE. 40-50 KT LLJ AND PWATS NEARLY 2 STD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL SUPPORT THE HIGH QPF MODELS CURRENTLY PROJECT...SO IT
COULD BE THAT LIQUID TOTALS OF AN INCH OR EVEN MORE ARE POSSIBLE
BY THE TIME THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT TUE NIGHT. CERTAINLY SOMETHING
TO WATCH GIVEN IT WILL BE A MIXED PRECIP EVENT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN.

WED INTO FRI...
SECOND ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WED. THIS AIRMASS IS NOT NEARLY AS DEEPLY COLD
AS THIS WEEKEND/S AIRMASS. H85 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -22C ON
AVERAGE...SUPPORTED BY ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS MEANS TEMPS WILL
CERTAINLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS DANGEROUS AS THIS
WEEKEND/S. WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND CHILL VALUES REACHING
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR SOME MAINLY WED NIGHT INTO THU...WHEN WINDS
ARE AT THEIR STRONGEST. SLIGHT MODERATION EXPECTED BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SW.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
SNOW DEVELOPS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BRINGING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. ACROSS
THE REST OF THE REGION A BROKEN DECK OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR CIGS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER OTHER THAN PERHAPS A PASSING SNOW SHOWER OR
TWO.

SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW END VFR TO MARGINAL
MVFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE.  MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY BUT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SAT AM.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS PICKUP TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR INLAND...WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN OCEAN EFFECT
CIGS/SNOWS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS WITH
WIND GUSTS 20-30 KT POSSIBLE UNTIL MID DAY SUN.

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
BECOMING IFR WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN WITH AREAS OF FOG LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT MAY RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS STILL GUSTING OVER 30 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVES OVER THE RELATIVELY MILD OCEAN.
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING AND DROP BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY NOON...AS COLD ADVECTION COMES TO AN
END AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST.  FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES CONTINUE
THROUGH 8 AM...BUT SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AS WINDS
DIMINISH.

TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT...BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP
BY DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY...ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH EXTREME COLD ADVECTION
OVER THE WATERS.  PRETTY MUCH A SLAM DUNK ON NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS ALL WATERS.  HAVE HOISTED GALE HEADLINES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE AIRMASS IS SO COLD
THAT MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED BY EARLY
SAT EVENING.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

*** GALE FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED SAT EVENING
 INTO EARLY SUN ***

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG AND BITTERLY COLD NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO GALE FORCE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. GALE WARNINGS AND
FREEZING SPRAY WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS RISK. CONDITIONS
DROP TO SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS BY LATE SUN. OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALL
IS LIKELY ACROSS SOME OF THE OTHER EASTERN WATERS.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW
ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO DROP BY EARLY MON MORNING WITH
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER TO FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF MON.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE SW. WINDS
AND SEAS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS AS EARLY AS TUE MORNING
AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME RAIN/FOG MAY LEAD TO LOWER
VISIBILITIES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. RECORD COLD
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. HERE ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH...

BOSTON.......15/1979 - 14/1916
HARTFORD.....11/1979 - 11/1979
PROVIDENCE...10/1979 - 10/1979
WORCESTER.... 8/1899 -  7/1979
BLUE HILL.... 9/1899 - 10/1979

RECORD COLD LOWS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH - 15TH...

BOSTON...... -3/1967 -  -3/1934 - -14/1943
HARTFORD.... -7/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943
PROVIDENCE.. -5/1967 -  -7/1979 - -14/1943
WORCESTER...-12/1967 - -11/1979 - -19/1943
BLUE HILL...-10/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ002>019-026.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ020>022.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ024.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ022-024.
RI...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
     RIZ001>004.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR RIZ005>007.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
     SUNDAY MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-250-251.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 121035
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
535 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY BUT VERY COLD WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR TODAY.  AN OCEAN STORM WILL
TRACK WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT BUT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL DELIVER
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 35 BELOW ZERO LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING!  FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A STORM WILL
LIKELY BRING SNOW QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND TO
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN INLAND AS MUCH MILDER AIR MOVES INTO NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

A BITTERLY COLD START TO THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCALES AND EVEN A FEW BELOW ZERO
READINGS IN WESTERN MA.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL COME TO AN END LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER AND
EVEN MORE INTENSE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.  NOT TOO MUCH MODERATION OCCURS
THIS AFTERNOON AS 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN BELOW -15C. THEREFORE...EXPECT
HIGH TEMPS TO ONLY RECOVER INTO THE 20 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WINDS WILL BECOME RELATIVELY LIGHT. SUNNY SKIES THIS
MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH COLD SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

*** ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS ***

*** BITTERLY COLD AIR INVADES THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
  STRONG WIND GUSTS AND RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES ***

TONIGHT...

AN INTERESTING SETUP FOR TONIGHT AS AN OCEAN STORM WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.  AT THE SAME
TIME...POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.  THIS WILL SETUP AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING BACK INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  THE RESULT WILL BE A
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST OMEGA ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 MICROBARS
PER SECOND.  WILL ALSO LIKELY HAVE SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WITH LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW RESULTING IN OCEAN INDUCED CAPES BETWEEN 400
AND 500 J/KG.  OVERALL THINK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS A GOOD BET FOR
MOST OF THE CAPE/VINEYARD WITH A LOW RISK OF 4 INCHES.  WILL ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THESE LOCATIONS...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY
HAVE TO CONSIDER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. LIFT/FORCING PERSISTS A
BIT LONGER ACROSS NANTUCKET AND WITH A PERIOD OF MODEST
SNOWGROWTH...FEEL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS REASONABLE AND WILL HOIST A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THEM.  BULK OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO FALL
BETWEEN 9 PM AND 5 AM...BUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO MID
MORNING SAT.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY EXTEND BACK INTO RHODE ISLAND/EASTERN
MA WITH MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST.  A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR MAINLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE WITH UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS CAPE/NANTUCKET.

SATURDAY...

ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING.  IT MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...BUT THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE THE DANGEROUSLY COLD AIRMASS THAT WILL INVADE THE REGION.
MIDDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL RAPIDLY FALL
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  IN FACT...BY 00Z SUNDAY 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE DOWN TO RARE VALUES OF -26 TO -30C FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND STANDARDS. THE RESULT WILL BE EARLY SAT EVENING TEMPS
ALREADY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION
EXPECT EXCELLENT MIXING.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO SAT NIGHT.  WE ALREADY ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
CAPE COD/NANTUCKET GIVEN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AS ARCTIC AIR
STREAMS IN OVER THE RELATIVELY MILD OCEAN.  WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR A TIME ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...BUT APPEARED TO
MARGINAL TO ISSUE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*** DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT ***

HIGHLIGHTS...

* BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
 WEEKEND
* SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN LIKELY TUE AND TUE NIGHT

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

MODELS CONTINUE AGREE WELL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DEEP
AMPLIFIED FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
SEASON TO ARRIVE BY LATE SAT...WILL THEN TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL
FLOW AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOOKS TO REGAIN CONTROL.
HOWEVER...WITH SOME LINK TO A VORTEX HOVERING AROUND THE QUEEN
ELIZABETH ISLANDS...THE WARMING TREND WILL NOT LAST...AND GIVE WAY
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
GIVEN THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT...A GENERAL BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A BASELINE FOR ALL BUT THE SRN STREAM
DOMINANT SYSTEM MON-TUE. A BLEND OF ENSEMBLES WILL BE USED FOR
THIS FEATURE DUE TO TRACK DISCREPANCIES.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
REINFORCING ARCTIC SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROF ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE SEVERAL
CONSEQUENCES. IT WILL ALLOW THE DEEPEST OF THE COLD AIR TO SPILL
ACROSS THE REGION...NEARING -30C AT H85. AT THE SAME TIME THE
STRONG MID LVL COLD ADVECTION AND INCREASED ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE
WILL LEAD TO INCREASED WIND ACROSS THE REGION...EXACERBATING AN
ALREADY VERY COLD SITUATION. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO ALREADY BE NEAR
OR BELOW 0F IN THE INTERIOR BY EVENING AND ONLY DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW 0F THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
INCREASED NW FLOW AT THE SFC...WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH AT
TIMES...WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -20F AND
-30F OR EVEN -35F IN SPOTS. WILL BE UPGRADING INTERIOR MA/CT AND
RI TO WIND CHILL WARNINGS WITH THIS UPDATE...BUT LEAVE WATCHES
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE MORE UNCERTAINTY LIE. WILL EXPAND THE
WATCH TO INCLUDE CAPE COD...AS CURRENT NUMBERS SUGGEST IT COULD BE
CLOSE THERE AS WELL. THE HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE 0F ON SUN...SO THE COLD WIND CHILLS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER WELL INTO THE DAY IN SPITE OF MAINLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS.

THE FINAL ISSUE OF NOTE...IS THAT IT WILL TURN MID LVL WINDS
TOWARD THE N. IN SPITE OF THE FLOW REMAINING MORE NW AT THE SFC.
THIS MAY ALLOW A LONG ENOUGH FETCH ACROSS ANOMALOUSLY WARM GULF OF
MAINE WATERS TO YIELD A HIGHER RISK FOR OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE COD. WITH SST-H85 DELTA-T VALUES NEARING
30C AND NORMALIZED CAPE VALUES AROUND 0.3 WILL NEED TO WATCH IF
ANY BANDS SETUP...ESPECIALLY AS AN INVERTED TROF FROM THE MAINE
COAST SHIFTS N. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
VERY DESTABILIZED LOW LVLS.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING IN AND CROSSING THE REGION...YIELDING
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SOME WARMING. H92 TEMPS REBOUND BACK
CLOSER TO -10C...OR AT LEAST CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. AFTER A
COLD START WITH SEVERAL SITES STILL BELOW 0F /THANKS TO SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING/ HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE STARTING TO LEAN CLOSER TO AN INSIDE RUNNER
LOW PRES SYSTEM WITH TIES TO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE THANKS TO ITS
STRONGER SRN STREAM INFLUENCE. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE TREND
SET FORTH BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...AND LEAN THE FORECAST IN
THIS DIRECTION. THIS IS BETTER NEWS AS IT DOES NOT PROMOTE GOOD
COLD AIR DAMMING. THEREFORE...THERMAL PROFILES ON BUFKIT SUGGESTS
AN INITIAL SNOWY START LATE MON NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO AN ALL
RAIN EVENT BY TUE. 40-50 KT LLJ AND PWATS NEARLY 2 STD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL SUPPORT THE HIGH QPF MODELS CURRENTLY PROJECT...SO IT
COULD BE THAT LIQUID TOTALS OF AN INCH OR EVEN MORE ARE POSSIBLE
BY THE TIME THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT TUE NIGHT. CERTAINLY SOMETHING
TO WATCH GIVEN IT WILL BE A MIXED PRECIP EVENT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN.

WED INTO FRI...
SECOND ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WED. THIS AIRMASS IS NOT NEARLY AS DEEPLY COLD
AS THIS WEEKEND/S AIRMASS. H85 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -22C ON
AVERAGE...SUPPORTED BY ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS MEANS TEMPS WILL
CERTAINLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS DANGEROUS AS THIS
WEEKEND/S. WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND CHILL VALUES REACHING
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR SOME MAINLY WED NIGHT INTO THU...WHEN WINDS
ARE AT THEIR STRONGEST. SLIGHT MODERATION EXPECTED BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MARGINAL
MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP IN SOME LOCALES THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SNOW DEVELOPS THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION A
BROKEN DECK OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR CIGS.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER OTHER
THAN PERHAPS A PASSING SNOW SHOWER OR TWO.

SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW END VFR TO MARGINAL
MVFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE.  MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY BUT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SAT AM.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS PICKUP TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR INLAND...WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN OCEAN EFFECT
CIGS/SNOWS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS WITH
WIND GUSTS 20-30 KT POSSIBLE UNTIL MID DAY SUN.

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
BECOMING IFR WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN WITH AREAS OF FOG LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT MAY RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS STILL GUSTING OVER 30 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVES OVER THE RELATIVELY MILD OCEAN.
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING AND DROP BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY NOON...AS COLD ADVECTION COMES TO AN
END AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST.  FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES CONTINUE
THROUGH 8 AM...BUT SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AS WINDS
DIMINISH.

TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT...BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP
BY DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY...ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH EXTREME COLD ADVECTION
OVER THE WATERS.  PRETTY MUCH A SLAM DUNK ON NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS ALL WATERS.  HAVE HOISTED GALE HEADLINES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE AIRMASS IS SO COLD
THAT MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED BY EARLY
SAT EVENING.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

*** GALE FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED SAT EVENING
 INTO EARLY SUN ***

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG AND BITTERLY COLD NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO GALE FORCE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. GALE WARNINGS AND
FREEZING SPRAY WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS RISK. CONDITIONS
DROP TO SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS BY LATE SUN. OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALL
IS LIKELY ACROSS SOME OF THE OTHER EASTERN WATERS.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW
ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO DROP BY EARLY MON MORNING WITH
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER TO FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF MON.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE SW. WINDS
AND SEAS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS AS EARLY AS TUE MORNING
AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME RAIN/FOG MAY LEAD TO LOWER
VISIBILITIES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. RECORD COLD
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. HERE ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH...

BOSTON.......15/1979 - 14/1916
HARTFORD.....11/1979 - 11/1979
PROVIDENCE...10/1979 - 10/1979
WORCESTER.... 8/1899 -  7/1979
BLUE HILL.... 9/1899 - 10/1979

RECORD COLD LOWS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH - 15TH...

BOSTON...... -3/1967 -  -3/1934 - -14/1943
HARTFORD.... -7/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943
PROVIDENCE.. -5/1967 -  -7/1979 - -14/1943
WORCESTER...-12/1967 - -11/1979 - -19/1943
BLUE HILL...-10/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ002>019-026.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ020>022.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ024.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ022-024.
RI...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
     RIZ001>004.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR RIZ005>007.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
     SUNDAY MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-250-251.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-
     233>235-250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
CLIMATE...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 120944
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
444 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY BUT VERY COLD WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR TODAY.  AN OCEAN STORM WILL
TRACK WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT BUT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL DELIVER BITTERLY
COLD WEATHER DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 35 BELOW ZERO
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING!FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...A STORM WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN
ALONG THE COAST AND TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN INLAND AS MUCH
MILDER AIR MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A BITTERLY COLD START TO THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCALES AND EVEN A FEW BELOW ZERO
READINGS IN WESTERN MA.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL COME TO AN END LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER AND
EVEN MORE INTENSE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.  NOT TOO MUCH MODERATION OCCURS
THIS AFTERNOON AS 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN BELOW -15C. THEREFORE...EXPECT
HIGH TEMPS TO ONLY RECOVER INTO THE 20 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WINDS WILL BECOME RELATIVELY LIGHT. SUNNY SKIES THIS
MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH COLD SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
*** ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS ***

*** BITTERLY COLD AIR INVADES THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
  STRONG WIND GUSTS AND RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES ***

TONIGHT...

AN INTERESTING SETUP FOR TONIGHT AS AN OCEAN STORM WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.  AT THE SAME
TIME...POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.  THIS WILL SETUP AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING BACK INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  THE RESULT WILL BE A
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST OMEGA ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 MICROBARS
PER SECOND.  WILL ALSO LIKELY HAVE SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WITH LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW RESULTING IN OCEAN INDUCED CAPES BETWEEN 400
AND 500 J/KG.  OVERALL THINK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS A GOOD BET FOR
MOST OF THE CAPE/VINEYARD WITH A LOW RISK OF 4 INCHES.  WILL ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THESE LOCATIONS...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY
HAVE TO CONSIDER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. LIFT/FORCING PERSISTS A
BIT LONGER ACROSS NANTUCKET AND WITH A PERIOD OF MODEST
SNOWGROWTH...FEEL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS REASONABLE AND WILL HOIST A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NANTUCKET.  BULK OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO
FALL BETWEEN 9 PM AND 5 AM...BUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO
MID MORNING SAT.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY EXTEND BACK INTO RHODE ISLAND/EASTERN
MA WITH MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST.  A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR MAINLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE WITH UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS CAPE/NANTUCKET.

SATURDAY...

ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING.  IT MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...BUT THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE THE DANGEROUSLY COLD AIRMASS THAT WILL INVADE THE REGION.
MIDDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL RAPIDLY FALL
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  IN FACT...BY 00Z SUNDAY 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE DOWN TO RARE VALUES OF -26 TO -30C FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND STANDARDS. THE RESULT WILL BE EARLY SAT EVENING TEMPS
ALREADY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION
EXPECT EXCELLENT MIXING...SO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH
WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO SAT NIGHT.  WE ALREADY ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR CAPE
COD/NANTUCKET GIVEN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AS ARCTIC AIR STREAMS IN
OVER THE RELATIVELY MILD OCEAN.  WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A
TIME ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...BUT APPEARED TO MARGINAL TO
ISSUE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*** DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT ***

HIGHLIGHTS...

* BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
 WEEKEND
* SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN LIKELY TUE AND TUE NIGHT

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

MODELS CONTINUE AGREE WELL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DEEP
AMPLIFIED FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
SEASON TO ARRIVE BY LATE SAT...WILL THEN TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL
FLOW AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOOKS TO REGAIN CONTROL.
HOWEVER...WITH SOME LINK TO A VORTEX HOVERING AROUND THE QUEEN
ELIZABETH ISLANDS...THE WARMING TREND WILL NOT LAST...AND GIVE WAY
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
GIVEN THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT...A GENERAL BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A BASELINE FOR ALL BUT THE SRN STREAM
DOMINANT SYSTEM MON-TUE. A BLEND OF ENSEMBLES WILL BE USED FOR
THIS FEATURE DUE TO TRACK DISCREPANCIES.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
REINFORCING ARCTIC SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROF ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE SEVERAL
CONSEQUENCES. IT WILL ALLOW THE DEEPEST OF THE COLD AIR TO SPILL
ACROSS THE REGION...NEARING -30C AT H85. AT THE SAME TIME THE
STRONG MID LVL COLD ADVECTION AND INCREASED ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE
WILL LEAD TO INCREASED WIND ACROSS THE REGION...EXACERBATING AN
ALREADY VERY COLD SITUATION. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO ALREADY BE NEAR
OR BELOW 0F IN THE INTERIOR BY EVENING AND ONLY DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW 0F THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
INCREASED NW FLOW AT THE SFC...WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH AT
TIMES...WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -20F AND
-30F OR EVEN -35F IN SPOTS. WILL BE UPGRADING INTERIOR MA/CT AND
RI TO WIND CHILL WARNINGS WITH THIS UPDATE...BUT LEAVE WATCHES
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE MORE UNCERTAINTY LIE. WILL EXPAND THE
WATCH TO INCLUDE CAPE COD...AS CURRENT NUMBERS SUGGEST IT COULD BE
CLOSE THERE AS WELL. THE HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE 0F ON SUN...SO THE COLD WIND CHILLS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER WELL INTO THE DAY IN SPITE OF MAINLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS.

THE FINAL ISSUE OF NOTE...IS THAT IT WILL TURN MID LVL WINDS
TOWARD THE N. IN SPITE OF THE FLOW REMAINING MORE NW AT THE SFC.
THIS MAY ALLOW A LONG ENOUGH FETCH ACROSS ANOMALOUSLY WARM GULF OF
MAINE WATERS TO YIELD A HIGHER RISK FOR OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE COD. WITH SST-H85 DELTA-T VALUES NEARING
30C AND NORMALIZED CAPE VALUES AROUND 0.3 WILL NEED TO WATCH IF
ANY BANDS SETUP...ESPECIALLY AS AN INVERTED TROF FROM THE MAINE
COAST SHIFTS N. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
VERY DESTABILIZED LOW LVLS.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING IN AND CROSSING THE REGION...YIELDING
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SOME WARMING. H92 TEMPS REBOUND BACK
CLOSER TO -10C...OR AT LEAST CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. AFTER A
COLD START WITH SEVERAL SITES STILL BELOW 0F /THANKS TO SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING/ HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE STARTING TO LEAN CLOSER TO AN INSIDE RUNNER
LOW PRES SYSTEM WITH TIES TO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE THANKS TO ITS
STRONGER SRN STREAM INFLUENCE. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE TREND
SET FORTH BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...AND LEAN THE FORECAST IN
THIS DIRECTION. THIS IS BETTER NEWS AS IT DOES NOT PROMOTE GOOD
COLD AIR DAMMING. THEREFORE...THERMAL PROFILES ON BUFKIT SUGGESTS
AN INITIAL SNOWY START LATE MON NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO AN ALL
RAIN EVENT BY TUE. 40-50 KT LLJ AND PWATS NEARLY 2 STD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL SUPPORT THE HIGH QPF MODELS CURRENTLY PROJECT...SO IT
COULD BE THAT LIQUID TOTALS OF AN INCH OR EVEN MORE ARE POSSIBLE
BY THE TIME THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT TUE NIGHT. CERTAINLY SOMETHING
TO WATCH GIVEN IT WILL BE A MIXED PRECIP EVENT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN.

WED INTO FRI...
SECOND ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WED. THIS AIRMASS IS NOT NEARLY AS DEEPLY COLD
AS THIS WEEKEND/S AIRMASS. H85 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -22C ON
AVERAGE...SUPPORTED BY ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS MEANS TEMPS WILL
CERTAINLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS DANGEROUS AS THIS
WEEKEND/S. WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND CHILL VALUES REACHING
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR SOME MAINLY WED NIGHT INTO THU...WHEN WINDS
ARE AT THEIR STRONGEST. SLIGHT MODERATION EXPECTED BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MARGINAL
MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP IN SOME LOCALES THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SNOW DEVELOPS THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION A
BROKEN DECK OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR CIGS.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER OTHER
THAN PERHAPS A PASSING SNOW SHOWER OR TWO.

SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW END VFR TO MARGINAL
MVFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE.  MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY BUT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SAT AM.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS PICKUP TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR INLAND...WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN OCEAN EFFECT
CIGS/SNOWS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS WITH
WIND GUSTS 20-30 KT POSSIBLE UNTIL MID DAY SUN.

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
BECOMING IFR WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN WITH AREAS OF FOG LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT MAY RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS STILL GUSTING OVER 30 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVES OVER THE RELATIVELY MILD OCEAN.
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING AND DROP BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY NOON...AS COLD ADVECTION COMES TO AN
END AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST.  FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES CONTINUE
THROUGH 8 AM...BUT SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AS WINDS
DIMINISH.

TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT...BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP
BY DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY...ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH EXTREME COLD ADVECTION
OVER THE WATERS.  PRETTY MUCH A SLAM DUNK ON NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS ALL WATERS.  HAVE HOISTED GALE HEADLINES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE AIRMASS IS SO COLD
THAT MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED BY EARLY
SAT EVENING.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

*** GALE FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED SAT EVENING
 INTO EARLY SUN ***

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG AND BITTERLY COLD NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO GALE FORCE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. GALE WARNINGS AND
FREEZING SPRAY WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS RISK. CONDITIONS
DROP TO SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS BY LATE SUN. OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALL
IS LIKELY ACROSS SOME OF THE OTHER EASTERN WATERS.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW
ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO DROP BY EARLY MON MORNING WITH
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER TO FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF MON.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE SW. WINDS
AND SEAS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS AS EARLY AS TUE MORNING
AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME RAIN/FOG MAY LEAD TO LOWER
VISIBILITIES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. RECORD COLD
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. HERE ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH...

BOSTON.......15/1979 - 14/1916
HARTFORD.....11/1979 - 11/1979
PROVIDENCE...10/1979 - 10/1979
WORCESTER.... 8/1899 -  7/1979
BLUE HILL.... 9/1899 - 10/1979

RECORD COLD LOWS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH - 15TH...

BOSTON...... -3/1967 -  -3/1934 - -14/1943
HARTFORD.... -7/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943
PROVIDENCE.. -5/1967 -  -7/1979 - -14/1943
WORCESTER...-12/1967 - -11/1979 - -19/1943
BLUE HILL...-10/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ002>019-026.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ020>022.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ024.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ022-024.
RI...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
     RIZ001>004.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR RIZ005>007.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
     SUNDAY MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-250-251.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-
     233>235-250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
CLIMATE...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 120944
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
444 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY BUT VERY COLD WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR TODAY.  AN OCEAN STORM WILL
TRACK WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT BUT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL DELIVER BITTERLY
COLD WEATHER DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 35 BELOW ZERO
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING!FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...A STORM WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN
ALONG THE COAST AND TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN INLAND AS MUCH
MILDER AIR MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A BITTERLY COLD START TO THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCALES AND EVEN A FEW BELOW ZERO
READINGS IN WESTERN MA.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL COME TO AN END LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER AND
EVEN MORE INTENSE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.  NOT TOO MUCH MODERATION OCCURS
THIS AFTERNOON AS 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN BELOW -15C. THEREFORE...EXPECT
HIGH TEMPS TO ONLY RECOVER INTO THE 20 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WINDS WILL BECOME RELATIVELY LIGHT. SUNNY SKIES THIS
MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH COLD SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
*** ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS ***

*** BITTERLY COLD AIR INVADES THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
  STRONG WIND GUSTS AND RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES ***

TONIGHT...

AN INTERESTING SETUP FOR TONIGHT AS AN OCEAN STORM WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.  AT THE SAME
TIME...POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.  THIS WILL SETUP AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING BACK INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  THE RESULT WILL BE A
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST OMEGA ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 MICROBARS
PER SECOND.  WILL ALSO LIKELY HAVE SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WITH LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW RESULTING IN OCEAN INDUCED CAPES BETWEEN 400
AND 500 J/KG.  OVERALL THINK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS A GOOD BET FOR
MOST OF THE CAPE/VINEYARD WITH A LOW RISK OF 4 INCHES.  WILL ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THESE LOCATIONS...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY
HAVE TO CONSIDER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. LIFT/FORCING PERSISTS A
BIT LONGER ACROSS NANTUCKET AND WITH A PERIOD OF MODEST
SNOWGROWTH...FEEL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS REASONABLE AND WILL HOIST A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NANTUCKET.  BULK OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO
FALL BETWEEN 9 PM AND 5 AM...BUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO
MID MORNING SAT.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY EXTEND BACK INTO RHODE ISLAND/EASTERN
MA WITH MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST.  A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR MAINLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE WITH UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS CAPE/NANTUCKET.

SATURDAY...

ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING.  IT MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...BUT THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE THE DANGEROUSLY COLD AIRMASS THAT WILL INVADE THE REGION.
MIDDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL RAPIDLY FALL
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  IN FACT...BY 00Z SUNDAY 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE DOWN TO RARE VALUES OF -26 TO -30C FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND STANDARDS. THE RESULT WILL BE EARLY SAT EVENING TEMPS
ALREADY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION
EXPECT EXCELLENT MIXING...SO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH
WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO SAT NIGHT.  WE ALREADY ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR CAPE
COD/NANTUCKET GIVEN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AS ARCTIC AIR STREAMS IN
OVER THE RELATIVELY MILD OCEAN.  WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A
TIME ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...BUT APPEARED TO MARGINAL TO
ISSUE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*** DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT ***

HIGHLIGHTS...

* BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
 WEEKEND
* SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN LIKELY TUE AND TUE NIGHT

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

MODELS CONTINUE AGREE WELL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DEEP
AMPLIFIED FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
SEASON TO ARRIVE BY LATE SAT...WILL THEN TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL
FLOW AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOOKS TO REGAIN CONTROL.
HOWEVER...WITH SOME LINK TO A VORTEX HOVERING AROUND THE QUEEN
ELIZABETH ISLANDS...THE WARMING TREND WILL NOT LAST...AND GIVE WAY
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
GIVEN THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT...A GENERAL BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A BASELINE FOR ALL BUT THE SRN STREAM
DOMINANT SYSTEM MON-TUE. A BLEND OF ENSEMBLES WILL BE USED FOR
THIS FEATURE DUE TO TRACK DISCREPANCIES.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
REINFORCING ARCTIC SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROF ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE SEVERAL
CONSEQUENCES. IT WILL ALLOW THE DEEPEST OF THE COLD AIR TO SPILL
ACROSS THE REGION...NEARING -30C AT H85. AT THE SAME TIME THE
STRONG MID LVL COLD ADVECTION AND INCREASED ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE
WILL LEAD TO INCREASED WIND ACROSS THE REGION...EXACERBATING AN
ALREADY VERY COLD SITUATION. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO ALREADY BE NEAR
OR BELOW 0F IN THE INTERIOR BY EVENING AND ONLY DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW 0F THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
INCREASED NW FLOW AT THE SFC...WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH AT
TIMES...WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -20F AND
-30F OR EVEN -35F IN SPOTS. WILL BE UPGRADING INTERIOR MA/CT AND
RI TO WIND CHILL WARNINGS WITH THIS UPDATE...BUT LEAVE WATCHES
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE MORE UNCERTAINTY LIE. WILL EXPAND THE
WATCH TO INCLUDE CAPE COD...AS CURRENT NUMBERS SUGGEST IT COULD BE
CLOSE THERE AS WELL. THE HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE 0F ON SUN...SO THE COLD WIND CHILLS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER WELL INTO THE DAY IN SPITE OF MAINLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS.

THE FINAL ISSUE OF NOTE...IS THAT IT WILL TURN MID LVL WINDS
TOWARD THE N. IN SPITE OF THE FLOW REMAINING MORE NW AT THE SFC.
THIS MAY ALLOW A LONG ENOUGH FETCH ACROSS ANOMALOUSLY WARM GULF OF
MAINE WATERS TO YIELD A HIGHER RISK FOR OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE COD. WITH SST-H85 DELTA-T VALUES NEARING
30C AND NORMALIZED CAPE VALUES AROUND 0.3 WILL NEED TO WATCH IF
ANY BANDS SETUP...ESPECIALLY AS AN INVERTED TROF FROM THE MAINE
COAST SHIFTS N. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
VERY DESTABILIZED LOW LVLS.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING IN AND CROSSING THE REGION...YIELDING
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SOME WARMING. H92 TEMPS REBOUND BACK
CLOSER TO -10C...OR AT LEAST CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. AFTER A
COLD START WITH SEVERAL SITES STILL BELOW 0F /THANKS TO SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING/ HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE STARTING TO LEAN CLOSER TO AN INSIDE RUNNER
LOW PRES SYSTEM WITH TIES TO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE THANKS TO ITS
STRONGER SRN STREAM INFLUENCE. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE TREND
SET FORTH BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...AND LEAN THE FORECAST IN
THIS DIRECTION. THIS IS BETTER NEWS AS IT DOES NOT PROMOTE GOOD
COLD AIR DAMMING. THEREFORE...THERMAL PROFILES ON BUFKIT SUGGESTS
AN INITIAL SNOWY START LATE MON NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO AN ALL
RAIN EVENT BY TUE. 40-50 KT LLJ AND PWATS NEARLY 2 STD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL SUPPORT THE HIGH QPF MODELS CURRENTLY PROJECT...SO IT
COULD BE THAT LIQUID TOTALS OF AN INCH OR EVEN MORE ARE POSSIBLE
BY THE TIME THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT TUE NIGHT. CERTAINLY SOMETHING
TO WATCH GIVEN IT WILL BE A MIXED PRECIP EVENT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN.

WED INTO FRI...
SECOND ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WED. THIS AIRMASS IS NOT NEARLY AS DEEPLY COLD
AS THIS WEEKEND/S AIRMASS. H85 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -22C ON
AVERAGE...SUPPORTED BY ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS MEANS TEMPS WILL
CERTAINLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS DANGEROUS AS THIS
WEEKEND/S. WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND CHILL VALUES REACHING
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR SOME MAINLY WED NIGHT INTO THU...WHEN WINDS
ARE AT THEIR STRONGEST. SLIGHT MODERATION EXPECTED BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MARGINAL
MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP IN SOME LOCALES THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SNOW DEVELOPS THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION A
BROKEN DECK OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR CIGS.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER OTHER
THAN PERHAPS A PASSING SNOW SHOWER OR TWO.

SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW END VFR TO MARGINAL
MVFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE.  MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY BUT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SAT AM.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS PICKUP TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR INLAND...WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN OCEAN EFFECT
CIGS/SNOWS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS WITH
WIND GUSTS 20-30 KT POSSIBLE UNTIL MID DAY SUN.

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
BECOMING IFR WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN WITH AREAS OF FOG LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT MAY RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS STILL GUSTING OVER 30 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVES OVER THE RELATIVELY MILD OCEAN.
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING AND DROP BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY NOON...AS COLD ADVECTION COMES TO AN
END AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST.  FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES CONTINUE
THROUGH 8 AM...BUT SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AS WINDS
DIMINISH.

TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT...BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP
BY DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY...ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH EXTREME COLD ADVECTION
OVER THE WATERS.  PRETTY MUCH A SLAM DUNK ON NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS ALL WATERS.  HAVE HOISTED GALE HEADLINES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE AIRMASS IS SO COLD
THAT MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED BY EARLY
SAT EVENING.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

*** GALE FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED SAT EVENING
 INTO EARLY SUN ***

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG AND BITTERLY COLD NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO GALE FORCE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. GALE WARNINGS AND
FREEZING SPRAY WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS RISK. CONDITIONS
DROP TO SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS BY LATE SUN. OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALL
IS LIKELY ACROSS SOME OF THE OTHER EASTERN WATERS.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW
ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO DROP BY EARLY MON MORNING WITH
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER TO FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF MON.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE SW. WINDS
AND SEAS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS AS EARLY AS TUE MORNING
AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME RAIN/FOG MAY LEAD TO LOWER
VISIBILITIES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. RECORD COLD
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. HERE ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH...

BOSTON.......15/1979 - 14/1916
HARTFORD.....11/1979 - 11/1979
PROVIDENCE...10/1979 - 10/1979
WORCESTER.... 8/1899 -  7/1979
BLUE HILL.... 9/1899 - 10/1979

RECORD COLD LOWS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH - 15TH...

BOSTON...... -3/1967 -  -3/1934 - -14/1943
HARTFORD.... -7/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943
PROVIDENCE.. -5/1967 -  -7/1979 - -14/1943
WORCESTER...-12/1967 - -11/1979 - -19/1943
BLUE HILL...-10/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ002>019-026.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ020>022.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ024.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ022-024.
RI...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
     RIZ001>004.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR RIZ005>007.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
     SUNDAY MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-250-251.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-
     233>235-250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
CLIMATE...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KGYX 120832
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
332 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL DISSIPATE
INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MAINE BY SATURDAY
MORNING. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW IN IT`S
WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND WILL
CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
NIGHT AND WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH
WESTERN NEW NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO EASTERN QUEBEC BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SHALLOW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. MAY SEE A
STRAY SNOW SHOWER...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO SEE A DRY DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER MID TEENS NORTH AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY OPEN INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH AS IT
SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. TROUGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED
ON THE MID COAST AREA WHERE INCREASING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A LOCALIZED AREA OF SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. CARIBOU STICKING WITH WATCHES AT THIS POINT AND SO
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT THE MODELS BEFORE
DECIDING ON HEADLINES. EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY ON SATURDAY.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID TEENS SOUTH.

TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ON SATURDAY IN FAR
EASTERN COASTAL ZONES BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF LATER IN THE DAY.
LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
AS NORTHWEST GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME
SUNNY BREAKS IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT MOST OF WESTERN MAINE
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS OF 5 TO 15 NORTH AND IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS EXTREMELY COLD WITH THE
POLAR VORTEX DIPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL POUR INTO THE REGION WITH SPRAWLING DENSE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DOMINATING THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND MOST
OF MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE NEGATIVE NUMBERS
AREAWIDE WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY IN THE LOWER NEGATIVE 20S.

LOOKING AT NAEFS AND GEFS ANOMALY INDICATORS FOR THIS EVENT SHOWS
JUST HOW COLD THIS AIRMASS IS. THE NAEFS CLIMATOLOGICAL
PERCENTILES FOR GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES INDICATE
MINIMUMS FOR MOST HEIGHTS AROUND SUNDAY AT 00Z AND 06Z. THIS
MEANS THAT WE ARE FORECASTING AN EVENT HAS NOT OCCURRED WITHIN
THE NAEFS 1979-2009 CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALSO THE
NAEFS R INTERVAL IS OUTSIDE CLIMATOLOGY AT 500MB OVER OUR REGION
AND JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

NOT SURPRISINGLY PWATS ARE ALSO FORECASTED TO BE IN THE BOTTOM
ONE PERCENTILE FOR THE NAEFS CLIMATE RECORD. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
COME TO AN END QUICKLY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM
THE WEST. NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE DEPARTING ARCTIC FRONT
AND WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA AND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. CURRENTLY HAVE
LEFT THE WIND CHILL WATCH UP AS IS AND AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT WE WILL BE ABLE TO ADJUST TIMING A LITTLE BETTER. THEREFORE
WILL LEAVE THIS FOR A LATER SHIFT TO ISSUE EVEN THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN ITS NECESSITY. SOME OF THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS APPROACH-40
F ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. TO THE SOUTH IT WONT BE MUCH BETTER WITH
-20 TO -30 F WILL BE MORE COMMON.

SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WARM UP ONLY SLIGHTLY INTO THE SINGLE NEGATIVE
DIGITS NORTH TO AROUND +5 TO +10 SOUTH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ANOTHER TERRIBLY COLD NIGHT AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES ABUTTING CANADA. THE
SILVER LINING DURING THIS TIME IS THAT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AND TRY AND PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE. WHETHER
THIS HAPPENS REMAINS TO BE SEEN BUT IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL HAVE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. AT THE SURFACE... A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE
A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY
MIX IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AS WARMER AIR
OVERRIDES THE COLDER AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. WENT
WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ON WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS WE STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WE MAY SEE
A WARMER DAY ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BY
THURSDAY WITH THE COLDEST AIR DAMMING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT US NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKED
LIKE ANOTHER IDEAL TIME TO USE A NON-DIURNAL CURVE AS A WARM
FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY.

LONG TERM... MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY IN SNOW.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S FOR THE BAYS THROUGH 8 AM AND OUTER
WATERS THROUGH NOON. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS
UNTIL 10 AM.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/BORDERLINE GALES WILL BE NEEDED
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ012>014-018>022.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR MEZ007>009.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ006-008>010-012-013-015.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NHZ001>005-007-011.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SINSABAUGH/HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 120322
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1022 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT USHER IN A ANOTHER WAVE OF
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR TONIGHT. FRIDAY WILL SEE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASS TO OUR SOUTH WITH SOME SUN BUT HIGHS ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW LATE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE MID COAST REGION WILL BRING SNOW TO THE MID COAST AREA
SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS WILL BRING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS TO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM WILL AFFECT THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LIKELY WITH A MIX OF SNOW AND
RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1020 PM UPDATE...JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND
SKY BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...A DRY
AND COLD OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED.

735 PM UPDATE...BAND OF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS THAT AFFECTED MAINLY
SOUTHERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS MOVED OFFSHORE
AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LOOKED LIKE A MINI-
NORLUN TROUGH THAT FOCUSED THAT BAND OF SNOWFALL. CLEARING SKIES
AND COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE THEME OVERNIGHT.

ALSO...A WIND CHILL WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING FOR AREAS THAT SHOULD SEE APPARENT TEMPERATURES
FALL TO 30 BELOW OR LOWER...WITH SOME BUFFER GIVEN TO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES WHERE IT MAY COME CLOSE.

525 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE NEAR TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TO BETTER CAPTURE THE HEAVY SNOWBAND SITUATED ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE
FROM STANDISH TO WESTBROOK TO SOUTH PORTLAND TO CAPE ELIZABETH. IT
IS CONSTRICTING A BIT BUT ALSO INTENSIFYING AS OF 520 PM. A QUICK
1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 630 BEFORE THE BAND
FINALLY MOVES OUT. AN SPS WAS ISSUED AT 450 PM FOR THIS PARTICULAR
FEATURE AND MAY HAVE TO BE REISSUED FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

PREVIOUSLY...

COLD FRONT JUST CROSSING INTO WRN NH ATTM...AND WINDS WILL PICK
UP THRU THE EVENING WITH TEMPS PLUNGING. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS
WHERE SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL LINGER THRU THE
EVENING...BUT EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT LATE. HAVE ISSUED WIND CHILL
ADV FOR THE ZONES ALONG THE INTL BORDER AS WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL STAY UP AROUND 10-15 MPH AND WILL
PRODUCE WINDS CHILLS OF -20 TO -25. LOW WILL FALL TO AROUND -5 IN
THE N...TO AROUND 5-10 F IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH SLIDES S OF THE REGION...WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL
HAVE SUBSIDED QUITE A BIT...SO IT SHOULD BE A FAIR DAY...EXCEPT
FOR HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRI NIGHT WE WILL BE BETWEEN TWO APPROACHING SYSTEMS...NRN STREAM
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW TRACKING OUT OF ONTARIO INTO NRN
NEW ENGLAND AND COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING WELL SO OF CAPE COD. THESE
TWO SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT AND BRING THE THREAT OF SOME SNOW TO THE
REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF FRI NIGHT. POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH
MAY DEVELOP LATE AND COULD BRING A STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
MID-COAST BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THU
NIGHT...BUT STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS...AND MAY
OCCUR CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT THAN DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE A RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM. MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A TROUGH NEAR THE MID-COAST
AREA WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY WEST OF THE
TROUGH. AT THIS TIME...AM FORECASTING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR THE
MIDCOAST AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE TROUGH
IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...RESIDENTS IN THE MID COAST AREA SHOULD BE AWARE THAT
SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY EVENING...A BLAST OF COLD AIR
WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE -20
TO -35 DEGREE RANGE LEADING TO THE ISSUANCE OF WIND CHILL
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. THE COLD AIR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WITH SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE MONDAY AS THE COLD AIR MOVES
EAST AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND PATH OF
THIS STORM. HOWEVER...LATEST RUNS INDICATE THAT THE PRECIP WILL
START AS SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS MUCH...IF
NOT ALL...OF THE AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. CONSIDERING THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL FORECAST SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND RAIN OR SNOW
TUESDAY...WITH THE LATEST MODELS FORECASTING A CHANGE TO RAIN ALL
AREAS.

COLDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE STORM DEPARTS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECTING VFR TONIGHT THROUGH FRI EVENING. NW WINDS
COULD GUST TO 25 KTS AT TIMES...BUT WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR IN SN LATE FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT
KRKD/KAUG AND KHIE.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW IN THE MID COAST AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND GALES HAVE BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO SCA. THE RAPID FALL OF TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF MOD FREEZING SPRAY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AS WELL.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH FREEZING
SPRAY. GALES POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY.

&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ012>014-018>022.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR MEZ007>009.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ006-008>010-012-013-015.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NHZ001>005-007-011.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...JENSENIUS/SINSABAUGH
AVIATION...CEMPA/JENSENIUS
MARINE...CEMPA/JENSENIUS




000
FXUS61 KBOX 120316
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1015 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT OM GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. AN OCEAN STORM WILL TRACK WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL DELIVER BITTERLY COLD WEATHER
THIS WEEKEND WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A STORM WILL
LIKELY BRING SNOW QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND TO
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN INLAND AS MUCH MILDER AIR MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

***BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS OF 0 TO 10 BELOW ZERO CONTINUE THROUGH
  DAYBREAK***

1015 PM UPDATE...

ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS WHAT WE WILL SEE THIS WEEKEND...STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WAS RESULTING IN BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS OF 0 TO 10
BELOW ZERO THIS EVENING.  NORTHWEST WINDS WERE STILL GUSTING TO
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS.  TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THOUGH AND BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...LOWS WILL BE WELL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR
MOST WITH A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST MA WHERE
WINDS DECOUPLE. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OTHER THAN PERHAPS
SOME OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS SKIRTING THE OUTER-CAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF MID ATLC COAST WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO
THE GT LAKES. WITH DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE REGION IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A LOW
PROB OF A FEW OCEAN EFFECT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS OVER CAPE/ISLANDS
TOWARD EVENING WITH SW FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT YIELDING OCEAN
INDUCED CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG...BUT MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW
WHICH WILL LIMIT ACTIVITY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW
AND MID 20S...WITH UPPER TEENS HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
*** ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS ***

INTERESTING SET UP AS OCEAN STORM TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE BUT POTENT
MID LEVEL TROF/SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL INDUCE AN
INVERTED TROF WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS SE NEW ENG. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING MOISTURE AND AREA OF GOOD LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MODEST OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION...FOCUSED ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS FRI NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW. SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT LIKELY GIVEN STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND OCEAN INDUCED CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG YIELDING
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW. SNOW ACCUM OF 1-3 INCHES
EXPECTED WITH LOW RISK OF UP TO 4 INCHES. ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EXTEND ACROSS S COASTAL MA WITH MINOR
ACCUM POSSIBLE BUT MAIN FOCUS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE
FRI NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN NEW
ENG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HAVE UPDATED SAT NIGHT PERIOD TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS DUE TO UNUSUAL COMBINED MID LEVEL TROF AND OCEAN EFFECT
INTERACTION. SEE SAT NIGHT DISCUSSION BELOW.

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS SAT
* BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
  WEEKEND
* SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN LIKELY TUE AND TUE NIGHT

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED UPPER LOW PASSES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT ABOVE COLDEST
ARCTIC AIR WITNESSED HERE IN QUITE A WHILE. STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN GALES ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS
AND WIND CHILLS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LOW AND SURFACE HIGH MOVE
EAST SUN AND MON. SHORT WAVE TROF AMPLIFIES LONG WAVE TROF
POSITION IN NORTH AMERICA BUT SO SHARPLY THAT SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
MOVE NORTH ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS AN INSIDE
RUNNER. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BEING SHOWN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST IT
IS NOT THE RIGHT SYNOPTIC SET UP FOR COLD AIR DAMMING. THUS...ANY
SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN AT THE OUTSET WILL LIKELY CHANGE RATHER
QUICKLY TO RAIN EVEN FAR INLAND. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS THAT THIS
EVENT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND COULD SEE SOME VARIATIONS IN
MODEL OUTPUT AS THE ENERGY REACHING NORTH AMERICA BECOMES BETTER
RESOLVED IN THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.

DETAILS...

SAT...SNOW ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF AN OCEAN STORM SHOULD END ACROSS CAPE
COD...MARTHA/S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET DURING SAT MORNING. OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST FOR A WHILE LONGER OVER THE OUTER
CAPE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL LAYER OF A VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATE...THE MEAN FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS ENOUGH
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS OFFSHORE
INITIALLY BUT THE COMBINATION OF EXTREME LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVER CAPE COD BAY AND APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL TROF MAY CAUSE SNOW
SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MID AND OUTER CAPE TOWARD EVENING.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DUE TO THE STRENGTH
OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND UPPER CLOSED LOW APPROACHING THE AREA.

THE MAIN SHOW OF THE ARCTIC BLAST ARRIVES BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH
STRONG NW WINDS DRIVING WIND CHILLS DRAMATICALLY LOWER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND HENCE BEGINNING THE WIND CHILL WATCH AT 1800 UTC OR 1
PM EST. THE TEMPERATURES THEMSELVES MAY RISE A FEW DEGREES OR SO
FROM EARLY MORNING TO MIDDAY AND THEN FALL STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON.

SAT NIGHT...MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD. WIND CHILL WATCH IN
EFFECT FOR POTENTIAL WIND CHILLS OF -25 TO -30 ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THE WIND CHILL WATCH COVERS ALL BUT THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE TO SEE IF THE WATCH
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED TO THE CAPE...MARTHA/S VINEYARD...NANTUCKET AND
BLOCK ISLAND. NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR SUN
MORNING AT MOST SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LOCATIONS INCLUDING
BOSTON...WORCESTER AND HARTFORD/WINDSOR LOCKS. MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF -30C SAT
NIGHT.

INITIALLY THOUGHT THAT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE GIVEN VERY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE SO EXTREME WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE STILL PRESENT
THAT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE WITH JUST A
TRAJECTORY ACROSS CAPE COD BAY AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE EVEN JUST ACROSS
NANTUCKET SOUND. IN ADDITION...OPERATIONAL COMPUTER MODELS DEPICT
A MID LEVEL TROF...VERY APPARENT AT 700 MB...EXTENDING FROM THE SE
GULF OF MAINE BACK TO SE NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT. THIS MIGHT PROVIDE
AN OPPORTUNITY TO SEED THE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
MAKE IT A MORE INTERESTING NIGHT AT LEAST ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE
AND POSSIBLY NANTUCKET AS WELL. THIS IS AN UNUSUAL AND RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE SCENARIO...BUT WE SEE ENOUGH INGREDIENTS TO WARRANT
CHANCE POPS FOR AT LEAST THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET SAT NIGHT.

SUN...AIR MASS SLOWLY BEGINS TO MODERATE TO -20C TO -22C AT 850 MB
BUT STILL VERY COLD. ANTICIPATE MOST HIGH TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE BUT STILL A BRISK NW WIND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
WIND CHILL WATCH EXPIRES AT 1 PM.

SUN NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE SNOW COVER SHOULD
BE A GOOD SET UP FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY DROP TO NEAR OR SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO MOST INTERIOR
LOCATIONS AND NOT TOO MUCH ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE SE URBAN CENTERS.

MON...TEMPERATURES MODERATE CONSIDERABLY ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY TOP OFF BELOW FREEZING OUTSIDE OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE MEAN
LONG WAVE POSITION WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT
RUNS NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THERE IS CURRENTLY GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR AN INSIDE RUNNER...ALTHOUGH THE EVENT IS STILL
SEVERAL DAYS AWAY. CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD FAVOR SNOW CHANGING
RATHER QUICKLY TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN INLAND AND TO JUST
RAIN ALONG THE COAST. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AT 925 MB IN EXCESS OF
80 KT MAY PRESENT A WIND ISSUE IF ENOUGH OF THAT MOMENTUM CAN MIX TO
THE SURFACE...A QUESTION MARK AS AN INVERSION IS LIKELY TO EXIST.
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH RAFL FOR LOCAL STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON QPF THIS FAR OUT IS QUITE LOW.

WED THROUGH THU...FOR NOW THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH SHORT
WAVE ENERGY NOT SHARP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
REFLECTION. HOWEVER...SOME PRIOR MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN A CLIPPER
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH. IF
NOTHING ELSE...THE SHORT WAVE TROF SHOULD HELP USHER IN ANOTHER SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

OVERNIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR
CAPE/ISLANDS AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION WITH SOME ACCUM
LIKELY. SCT SNOW SHOWERS MAY EXTEND INTO SE MA...OTHERWISE A MIX
OF VFR/MVFR CIGS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT THROUGH SUN...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLAND...IMPROVING DURING SAT AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR FOR THE PERIOD BUT GUSTY NW SURFACE WINDS.

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. BECOMING IFR
WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN WITH AREAS OF FOG LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OVERNIGHT AND FRI...W/NW GALES OF 35 TO 40 KT IN STRONG COLD
ADVECTION LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND
DROP BELOW SCA FRI MORNING WITH LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOPING FRI
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OVER E MA WATERS AND
CAPE COD BAY OVERNIGHT.  ALSO POSSIBLE IN SOME WATERS NEAR BUZZARDS
BAY ENTRANCE.  FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY OVERNIGHT IN THESE
LOCATIONS...BUT SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
AS WINDS DIMINISH.

FRI NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA. SW WINDS BECOMING NW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF
SNOW.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN GALE FORCE NW WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
INTO SUN. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A RISK FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.

WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT AND MON. A DEVELOPING LOW MOVING
ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS MAY PRODUCE SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF GALE FORCE ACROSS AT LEAST SOME OF THE WATERS TUE ALONG WITH
BUILDING SEAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. RECORD COLD
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. HERE ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH...

BOSTON.......15/1979 - 14/1916
HARTFORD.....11/1979 - 11/1979
PROVIDENCE...10/1979 - 10/1979
WORCESTER.... 8/1899 -  7/1979
BLUE HILL.... 9/1899 - 10/1979

RECORD COLD LOWS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH - 15TH...

BOSTON...... -3/1967 -  -3/1934 - -14/1943
HARTFORD.... -7/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943
PROVIDENCE.. -5/1967 -  -7/1979 - -14/1943
WORCESTER...-12/1967 - -11/1979 - -19/1943
BLUE HILL...-10/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ002>021-026.
RI...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
     254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-
     233>235-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC/THOMPSON
MARINE...FRANK/KJC/THOMPSON
CLIMATE...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 120201
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
901 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT OM GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. AN OCEAN STORM WILL TRACK WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL DELIVER BITTERLY COLD WEATHER
THIS WEEKEND WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A STORM WILL
LIKELY BRING SNOW QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND TO
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN INLAND AS MUCH MILDER AIR MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
***WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND 10 BELOW ZERO LATE
 TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING***

7 PM UPDATE...

RADAR DEPICTS AN EXTENDED LAKE ENHANCED BAND FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO
THE BERKSHIRES BUT IT STRUGGLES TO STAY TOGETHER OVER THE
BERKSHIRE CREST. A FEW BANDS OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEPICTED
OFFSHORE AND SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...A FEW FLURRIES
SPILLING OVER THE BERKSHIRE CREST AND ACROSS SW HARTFORD COUNTY
SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT TEMPERATURES WERE
RUNNING 2 OR 3 DEGREES BELOW THE FORECAST AT 7 PM...BUT THE
FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK REASONABLE. JUST TWEAKED
THE HOURS TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS A LITTLE.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...

SCT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SNE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DISSIPATE BY EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AS
GOOD MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES IN. STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON GUSTY NW
WINDS WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -20C TONIGHT...THEN WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS...EXCEPT TEENS CAPE/ISLANDS. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP
TO ZERO TO 10 BELOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF MID ATLC COAST WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO
THE GT LAKES. WITH DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE REGION IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A LOW
PROB OF A FEW OCEAN EFFECT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS OVER CAPE/ISLANDS
TOWARD EVENING WITH SW FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT YIELDING OCEAN
INDUCED CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG...BUT MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW
WHICH WILL LIMIT ACTIVITY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW
AND MID 20S...WITH UPPER TEENS HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
*** ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS ***

INTERESTING SET UP AS OCEAN STORM TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE BUT POTENT
MID LEVEL TROF/SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL INDUCE AN
INVERTED TROF WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS SE NEW ENG. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING MOISTURE AND AREA OF GOOD LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MODEST OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION...FOCUSED ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS FRI NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW. SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT LIKELY GIVEN STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND OCEAN INDUCED CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG YIELDING
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW. SNOW ACCUM OF 1-3 INCHES
EXPECTED WITH LOW RISK OF UP TO 4 INCHES. ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EXTEND ACROSS S COASTAL MA WITH MINOR
ACCUM POSSIBLE BUT MAIN FOCUS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE
FRI NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN NEW
ENG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HAVE UPDATED SAT NIGHT PERIOD TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS DUE TO UNUSUAL COMBINED MID LEVEL TROF AND OCEAN EFFECT
INTERACTION. SEE SAT NIGHT DISCUSSION BELOW.

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS SAT
* BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
  WEEKEND
* SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN LIKELY TUE AND TUE NIGHT

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED UPPER LOW PASSES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT ABOVE COLDEST
ARCTIC AIR WITNESSED HERE IN QUITE A WHILE. STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN GALES ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS
AND WIND CHILLS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LOW AND SURFACE HIGH MOVE
EAST SUN AND MON. SHORT WAVE TROF AMPLIFIES LONG WAVE TROF
POSITION IN NORTH AMERICA BUT SO SHARPLY THAT SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
MOVE NORTH ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS AN INSIDE
RUNNER. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BEING SHOWN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST IT
IS NOT THE RIGHT SYNOPTIC SET UP FOR COLD AIR DAMMING. THUS...ANY
SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN AT THE OUTSET WILL LIKELY CHANGE RATHER
QUICKLY TO RAIN EVEN FAR INLAND. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS THAT THIS
EVENT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND COULD SEE SOME VARIATIONS IN
MODEL OUTPUT AS THE ENERGY REACHING NORTH AMERICA BECOMES BETTER
RESOLVED IN THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.

DETAILS...

SAT...SNOW ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF AN OCEAN STORM SHOULD END ACROSS CAPE
COD...MARTHA/S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET DURING SAT MORNING. OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST FOR A WHILE LONGER OVER THE OUTER
CAPE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL LAYER OF A VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATE...THE MEAN FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS ENOUGH
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS OFFSHORE
INITIALLY BUT THE COMBINATION OF EXTREME LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVER CAPE COD BAY AND APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL TROF MAY CAUSE SNOW
SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MID AND OUTER CAPE TOWARD EVENING.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DUE TO THE STRENGTH
OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND UPPER CLOSED LOW APPROACHING THE AREA.

THE MAIN SHOW OF THE ARCTIC BLAST ARRIVES BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH
STRONG NW WINDS DRIVING WIND CHILLS DRAMATICALLY LOWER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND HENCE BEGINNING THE WIND CHILL WATCH AT 1800 UTC OR 1
PM EST. THE TEMPERATURES THEMSELVES MAY RISE A FEW DEGREES OR SO
FROM EARLY MORNING TO MIDDAY AND THEN FALL STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON.

SAT NIGHT...MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD. WIND CHILL WATCH IN
EFFECT FOR POTENTIAL WIND CHILLS OF -25 TO -30 ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THE WIND CHILL WATCH COVERS ALL BUT THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE TO SEE IF THE WATCH
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED TO THE CAPE...MARTHA/S VINEYARD...NANTUCKET AND
BLOCK ISLAND. NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR SUN
MORNING AT MOST SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LOCATIONS INCLUDING
BOSTON...WORCESTER AND HARTFORD/WINDSOR LOCKS. MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF -30C SAT
NIGHT.

INITIALLY THOUGHT THAT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE GIVEN VERY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE SO EXTREME WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE STILL PRESENT
THAT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE WITH JUST A
TRAJECTORY ACROSS CAPE COD BAY AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE EVEN JUST ACROSS
NANTUCKET SOUND. IN ADDITION...OPERATIONAL COMPUTER MODELS DEPICT
A MID LEVEL TROF...VERY APPARENT AT 700 MB...EXTENDING FROM THE SE
GULF OF MAINE BACK TO SE NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT. THIS MIGHT PROVIDE
AN OPPORTUNITY TO SEED THE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
MAKE IT A MORE INTERESTING NIGHT AT LEAST ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE
AND POSSIBLY NANTUCKET AS WELL. THIS IS AN UNUSUAL AND RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE SCENARIO...BUT WE SEE ENOUGH INGREDIENTS TO WARRANT
CHANCE POPS FOR AT LEAST THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET SAT NIGHT.

SUN...AIR MASS SLOWLY BEGINS TO MODERATE TO -20C TO -22C AT 850 MB
BUT STILL VERY COLD. ANTICIPATE MOST HIGH TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE BUT STILL A BRISK NW WIND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
WIND CHILL WATCH EXPIRES AT 1 PM.

SUN NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE SNOW COVER SHOULD
BE A GOOD SET UP FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY DROP TO NEAR OR SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO MOST INTERIOR
LOCATIONS AND NOT TOO MUCH ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE SE URBAN CENTERS.

MON...TEMPERATURES MODERATE CONSIDERABLY ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY TOP OFF BELOW FREEZING OUTSIDE OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE MEAN
LONG WAVE POSITION WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT
RUNS NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THERE IS CURRENTLY GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR AN INSIDE RUNNER...ALTHOUGH THE EVENT IS STILL
SEVERAL DAYS AWAY. CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD FAVOR SNOW CHANGING
RATHER QUICKLY TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN INLAND AND TO JUST
RAIN ALONG THE COAST. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AT 925 MB IN EXCESS OF
80 KT MAY PRESENT A WIND ISSUE IF ENOUGH OF THAT MOMENTUM CAN MIX TO
THE SURFACE...A QUESTION MARK AS AN INVERSION IS LIKELY TO EXIST.
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH RAFL FOR LOCAL STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON QPF THIS FAR OUT IS QUITE LOW.

WED THROUGH THU...FOR NOW THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH SHORT
WAVE ENERGY NOT SHARP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
REFLECTION. HOWEVER...SOME PRIOR MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN A CLIPPER
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH. IF
NOTHING ELSE...THE SHORT WAVE TROF SHOULD HELP USHER IN ANOTHER SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 00Z...SCT SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS CONFINED TO E
MA THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH SCT FLURRIES AND
BRIEF MVFR. PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARD EVENING. W/NW GUSTS TO
25-30KT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF VFR CIGS THIS EVENING...CLEARING
BY 03Z. W/NW GUSTS TO 20-30 KT IN THE EVENING...DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT INLAND BUT REMAINING GUSTY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR
CAPE/ISLANDS AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION WITH SOME ACCUM
LIKELY. SCT SNOW SHOWERS MAY EXTEND INTO SE MA...OTHERWISE A MIX
OF VFR/MVFR CIGS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT THROUGH SUN...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLAND...IMPROVING DURING SAT AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR FOR THE PERIOD BUT GUSTY NW SURFACE WINDS.

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. BECOMING IFR
WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN WITH AREAS OF FOG LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT AND FRI...A PERIOD OF W/NW GALES AROUND 35 KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION. WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND DROP BELOW SCA FRI MORNING WITH LIGHT SW WINDS
DEVELOPING FRI AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OVER E
MA WATERS AND CAPE COD BAY TONIGHT SO FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE.

FRI NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA. SW WINDS BECOMING NW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF
SNOW.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN GALE FORCE NW WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
INTO SUN. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A RISK FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.

WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT AND MON. A DEVELOPING LOW MOVING
ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS MAY PRODUCE SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF GALE FORCE ACROSS AT LEAST SOME OF THE WATERS TUE ALONG WITH
BUILDING SEAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. RECORD COLD
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. HERE ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH...

BOSTON.......15/1979 - 14/1916
HARTFORD.....11/1979 - 11/1979
PROVIDENCE...10/1979 - 10/1979
WORCESTER.... 8/1899 -  7/1979
BLUE HILL.... 9/1899 - 10/1979

RECORD COLD LOWS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH - 15TH...

BOSTON...... -3/1967 -  -3/1934 - -14/1943
HARTFORD.... -7/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943
PROVIDENCE.. -5/1967 -  -7/1979 - -14/1943
WORCESTER...-12/1967 - -11/1979 - -19/1943
BLUE HILL...-10/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ002>021-026.
RI...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...KJC/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...KJC/THOMPSON
MARINE...KJC/THOMPSON
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 120201
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
901 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT OM GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. AN OCEAN STORM WILL TRACK WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL DELIVER BITTERLY COLD WEATHER
THIS WEEKEND WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A STORM WILL
LIKELY BRING SNOW QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND TO
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN INLAND AS MUCH MILDER AIR MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
***WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND 10 BELOW ZERO LATE
 TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING***

7 PM UPDATE...

RADAR DEPICTS AN EXTENDED LAKE ENHANCED BAND FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO
THE BERKSHIRES BUT IT STRUGGLES TO STAY TOGETHER OVER THE
BERKSHIRE CREST. A FEW BANDS OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEPICTED
OFFSHORE AND SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...A FEW FLURRIES
SPILLING OVER THE BERKSHIRE CREST AND ACROSS SW HARTFORD COUNTY
SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT TEMPERATURES WERE
RUNNING 2 OR 3 DEGREES BELOW THE FORECAST AT 7 PM...BUT THE
FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK REASONABLE. JUST TWEAKED
THE HOURS TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS A LITTLE.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...

SCT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SNE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DISSIPATE BY EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AS
GOOD MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES IN. STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON GUSTY NW
WINDS WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -20C TONIGHT...THEN WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS...EXCEPT TEENS CAPE/ISLANDS. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP
TO ZERO TO 10 BELOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF MID ATLC COAST WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO
THE GT LAKES. WITH DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE REGION IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A LOW
PROB OF A FEW OCEAN EFFECT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS OVER CAPE/ISLANDS
TOWARD EVENING WITH SW FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT YIELDING OCEAN
INDUCED CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG...BUT MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW
WHICH WILL LIMIT ACTIVITY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW
AND MID 20S...WITH UPPER TEENS HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
*** ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS ***

INTERESTING SET UP AS OCEAN STORM TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE BUT POTENT
MID LEVEL TROF/SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL INDUCE AN
INVERTED TROF WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS SE NEW ENG. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING MOISTURE AND AREA OF GOOD LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MODEST OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION...FOCUSED ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS FRI NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW. SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT LIKELY GIVEN STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND OCEAN INDUCED CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG YIELDING
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW. SNOW ACCUM OF 1-3 INCHES
EXPECTED WITH LOW RISK OF UP TO 4 INCHES. ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EXTEND ACROSS S COASTAL MA WITH MINOR
ACCUM POSSIBLE BUT MAIN FOCUS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE
FRI NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN NEW
ENG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HAVE UPDATED SAT NIGHT PERIOD TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS DUE TO UNUSUAL COMBINED MID LEVEL TROF AND OCEAN EFFECT
INTERACTION. SEE SAT NIGHT DISCUSSION BELOW.

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS SAT
* BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
  WEEKEND
* SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN LIKELY TUE AND TUE NIGHT

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED UPPER LOW PASSES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT ABOVE COLDEST
ARCTIC AIR WITNESSED HERE IN QUITE A WHILE. STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN GALES ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS
AND WIND CHILLS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LOW AND SURFACE HIGH MOVE
EAST SUN AND MON. SHORT WAVE TROF AMPLIFIES LONG WAVE TROF
POSITION IN NORTH AMERICA BUT SO SHARPLY THAT SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
MOVE NORTH ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS AN INSIDE
RUNNER. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BEING SHOWN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST IT
IS NOT THE RIGHT SYNOPTIC SET UP FOR COLD AIR DAMMING. THUS...ANY
SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN AT THE OUTSET WILL LIKELY CHANGE RATHER
QUICKLY TO RAIN EVEN FAR INLAND. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS THAT THIS
EVENT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND COULD SEE SOME VARIATIONS IN
MODEL OUTPUT AS THE ENERGY REACHING NORTH AMERICA BECOMES BETTER
RESOLVED IN THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.

DETAILS...

SAT...SNOW ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF AN OCEAN STORM SHOULD END ACROSS CAPE
COD...MARTHA/S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET DURING SAT MORNING. OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST FOR A WHILE LONGER OVER THE OUTER
CAPE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL LAYER OF A VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATE...THE MEAN FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS ENOUGH
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS OFFSHORE
INITIALLY BUT THE COMBINATION OF EXTREME LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVER CAPE COD BAY AND APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL TROF MAY CAUSE SNOW
SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MID AND OUTER CAPE TOWARD EVENING.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DUE TO THE STRENGTH
OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND UPPER CLOSED LOW APPROACHING THE AREA.

THE MAIN SHOW OF THE ARCTIC BLAST ARRIVES BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH
STRONG NW WINDS DRIVING WIND CHILLS DRAMATICALLY LOWER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND HENCE BEGINNING THE WIND CHILL WATCH AT 1800 UTC OR 1
PM EST. THE TEMPERATURES THEMSELVES MAY RISE A FEW DEGREES OR SO
FROM EARLY MORNING TO MIDDAY AND THEN FALL STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON.

SAT NIGHT...MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD. WIND CHILL WATCH IN
EFFECT FOR POTENTIAL WIND CHILLS OF -25 TO -30 ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THE WIND CHILL WATCH COVERS ALL BUT THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE TO SEE IF THE WATCH
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED TO THE CAPE...MARTHA/S VINEYARD...NANTUCKET AND
BLOCK ISLAND. NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR SUN
MORNING AT MOST SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LOCATIONS INCLUDING
BOSTON...WORCESTER AND HARTFORD/WINDSOR LOCKS. MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF -30C SAT
NIGHT.

INITIALLY THOUGHT THAT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE GIVEN VERY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE SO EXTREME WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE STILL PRESENT
THAT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE WITH JUST A
TRAJECTORY ACROSS CAPE COD BAY AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE EVEN JUST ACROSS
NANTUCKET SOUND. IN ADDITION...OPERATIONAL COMPUTER MODELS DEPICT
A MID LEVEL TROF...VERY APPARENT AT 700 MB...EXTENDING FROM THE SE
GULF OF MAINE BACK TO SE NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT. THIS MIGHT PROVIDE
AN OPPORTUNITY TO SEED THE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
MAKE IT A MORE INTERESTING NIGHT AT LEAST ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE
AND POSSIBLY NANTUCKET AS WELL. THIS IS AN UNUSUAL AND RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE SCENARIO...BUT WE SEE ENOUGH INGREDIENTS TO WARRANT
CHANCE POPS FOR AT LEAST THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET SAT NIGHT.

SUN...AIR MASS SLOWLY BEGINS TO MODERATE TO -20C TO -22C AT 850 MB
BUT STILL VERY COLD. ANTICIPATE MOST HIGH TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE BUT STILL A BRISK NW WIND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
WIND CHILL WATCH EXPIRES AT 1 PM.

SUN NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE SNOW COVER SHOULD
BE A GOOD SET UP FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY DROP TO NEAR OR SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO MOST INTERIOR
LOCATIONS AND NOT TOO MUCH ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE SE URBAN CENTERS.

MON...TEMPERATURES MODERATE CONSIDERABLY ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY TOP OFF BELOW FREEZING OUTSIDE OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE MEAN
LONG WAVE POSITION WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT
RUNS NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THERE IS CURRENTLY GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR AN INSIDE RUNNER...ALTHOUGH THE EVENT IS STILL
SEVERAL DAYS AWAY. CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD FAVOR SNOW CHANGING
RATHER QUICKLY TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN INLAND AND TO JUST
RAIN ALONG THE COAST. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AT 925 MB IN EXCESS OF
80 KT MAY PRESENT A WIND ISSUE IF ENOUGH OF THAT MOMENTUM CAN MIX TO
THE SURFACE...A QUESTION MARK AS AN INVERSION IS LIKELY TO EXIST.
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH RAFL FOR LOCAL STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON QPF THIS FAR OUT IS QUITE LOW.

WED THROUGH THU...FOR NOW THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH SHORT
WAVE ENERGY NOT SHARP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
REFLECTION. HOWEVER...SOME PRIOR MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN A CLIPPER
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH. IF
NOTHING ELSE...THE SHORT WAVE TROF SHOULD HELP USHER IN ANOTHER SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 00Z...SCT SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS CONFINED TO E
MA THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH SCT FLURRIES AND
BRIEF MVFR. PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARD EVENING. W/NW GUSTS TO
25-30KT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF VFR CIGS THIS EVENING...CLEARING
BY 03Z. W/NW GUSTS TO 20-30 KT IN THE EVENING...DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT INLAND BUT REMAINING GUSTY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR
CAPE/ISLANDS AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION WITH SOME ACCUM
LIKELY. SCT SNOW SHOWERS MAY EXTEND INTO SE MA...OTHERWISE A MIX
OF VFR/MVFR CIGS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT THROUGH SUN...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLAND...IMPROVING DURING SAT AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR FOR THE PERIOD BUT GUSTY NW SURFACE WINDS.

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. BECOMING IFR
WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN WITH AREAS OF FOG LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT AND FRI...A PERIOD OF W/NW GALES AROUND 35 KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION. WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND DROP BELOW SCA FRI MORNING WITH LIGHT SW WINDS
DEVELOPING FRI AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OVER E
MA WATERS AND CAPE COD BAY TONIGHT SO FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE.

FRI NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA. SW WINDS BECOMING NW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF
SNOW.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN GALE FORCE NW WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
INTO SUN. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A RISK FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.

WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT AND MON. A DEVELOPING LOW MOVING
ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS MAY PRODUCE SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF GALE FORCE ACROSS AT LEAST SOME OF THE WATERS TUE ALONG WITH
BUILDING SEAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. RECORD COLD
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. HERE ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH...

BOSTON.......15/1979 - 14/1916
HARTFORD.....11/1979 - 11/1979
PROVIDENCE...10/1979 - 10/1979
WORCESTER.... 8/1899 -  7/1979
BLUE HILL.... 9/1899 - 10/1979

RECORD COLD LOWS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH - 15TH...

BOSTON...... -3/1967 -  -3/1934 - -14/1943
HARTFORD.... -7/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943
PROVIDENCE.. -5/1967 -  -7/1979 - -14/1943
WORCESTER...-12/1967 - -11/1979 - -19/1943
BLUE HILL...-10/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ002>021-026.
RI...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...KJC/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...KJC/THOMPSON
MARINE...KJC/THOMPSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 120201
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
901 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT OM GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. AN OCEAN STORM WILL TRACK WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL DELIVER BITTERLY COLD WEATHER
THIS WEEKEND WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A STORM WILL
LIKELY BRING SNOW QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND TO
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN INLAND AS MUCH MILDER AIR MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
***WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND 10 BELOW ZERO LATE
 TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING***

7 PM UPDATE...

RADAR DEPICTS AN EXTENDED LAKE ENHANCED BAND FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO
THE BERKSHIRES BUT IT STRUGGLES TO STAY TOGETHER OVER THE
BERKSHIRE CREST. A FEW BANDS OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEPICTED
OFFSHORE AND SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...A FEW FLURRIES
SPILLING OVER THE BERKSHIRE CREST AND ACROSS SW HARTFORD COUNTY
SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT TEMPERATURES WERE
RUNNING 2 OR 3 DEGREES BELOW THE FORECAST AT 7 PM...BUT THE
FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK REASONABLE. JUST TWEAKED
THE HOURS TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS A LITTLE.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...

SCT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SNE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DISSIPATE BY EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AS
GOOD MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES IN. STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON GUSTY NW
WINDS WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -20C TONIGHT...THEN WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS...EXCEPT TEENS CAPE/ISLANDS. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP
TO ZERO TO 10 BELOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF MID ATLC COAST WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO
THE GT LAKES. WITH DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE REGION IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A LOW
PROB OF A FEW OCEAN EFFECT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS OVER CAPE/ISLANDS
TOWARD EVENING WITH SW FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT YIELDING OCEAN
INDUCED CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG...BUT MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW
WHICH WILL LIMIT ACTIVITY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW
AND MID 20S...WITH UPPER TEENS HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
*** ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS ***

INTERESTING SET UP AS OCEAN STORM TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE BUT POTENT
MID LEVEL TROF/SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL INDUCE AN
INVERTED TROF WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS SE NEW ENG. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING MOISTURE AND AREA OF GOOD LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MODEST OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION...FOCUSED ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS FRI NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW. SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT LIKELY GIVEN STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND OCEAN INDUCED CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG YIELDING
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW. SNOW ACCUM OF 1-3 INCHES
EXPECTED WITH LOW RISK OF UP TO 4 INCHES. ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EXTEND ACROSS S COASTAL MA WITH MINOR
ACCUM POSSIBLE BUT MAIN FOCUS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE
FRI NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN NEW
ENG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HAVE UPDATED SAT NIGHT PERIOD TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS DUE TO UNUSUAL COMBINED MID LEVEL TROF AND OCEAN EFFECT
INTERACTION. SEE SAT NIGHT DISCUSSION BELOW.

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS SAT
* BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
  WEEKEND
* SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN LIKELY TUE AND TUE NIGHT

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED UPPER LOW PASSES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT ABOVE COLDEST
ARCTIC AIR WITNESSED HERE IN QUITE A WHILE. STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN GALES ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS
AND WIND CHILLS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LOW AND SURFACE HIGH MOVE
EAST SUN AND MON. SHORT WAVE TROF AMPLIFIES LONG WAVE TROF
POSITION IN NORTH AMERICA BUT SO SHARPLY THAT SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
MOVE NORTH ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS AN INSIDE
RUNNER. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BEING SHOWN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST IT
IS NOT THE RIGHT SYNOPTIC SET UP FOR COLD AIR DAMMING. THUS...ANY
SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN AT THE OUTSET WILL LIKELY CHANGE RATHER
QUICKLY TO RAIN EVEN FAR INLAND. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS THAT THIS
EVENT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND COULD SEE SOME VARIATIONS IN
MODEL OUTPUT AS THE ENERGY REACHING NORTH AMERICA BECOMES BETTER
RESOLVED IN THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.

DETAILS...

SAT...SNOW ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF AN OCEAN STORM SHOULD END ACROSS CAPE
COD...MARTHA/S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET DURING SAT MORNING. OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST FOR A WHILE LONGER OVER THE OUTER
CAPE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL LAYER OF A VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATE...THE MEAN FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS ENOUGH
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS OFFSHORE
INITIALLY BUT THE COMBINATION OF EXTREME LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVER CAPE COD BAY AND APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL TROF MAY CAUSE SNOW
SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MID AND OUTER CAPE TOWARD EVENING.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DUE TO THE STRENGTH
OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND UPPER CLOSED LOW APPROACHING THE AREA.

THE MAIN SHOW OF THE ARCTIC BLAST ARRIVES BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH
STRONG NW WINDS DRIVING WIND CHILLS DRAMATICALLY LOWER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND HENCE BEGINNING THE WIND CHILL WATCH AT 1800 UTC OR 1
PM EST. THE TEMPERATURES THEMSELVES MAY RISE A FEW DEGREES OR SO
FROM EARLY MORNING TO MIDDAY AND THEN FALL STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON.

SAT NIGHT...MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD. WIND CHILL WATCH IN
EFFECT FOR POTENTIAL WIND CHILLS OF -25 TO -30 ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THE WIND CHILL WATCH COVERS ALL BUT THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE TO SEE IF THE WATCH
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED TO THE CAPE...MARTHA/S VINEYARD...NANTUCKET AND
BLOCK ISLAND. NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR SUN
MORNING AT MOST SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LOCATIONS INCLUDING
BOSTON...WORCESTER AND HARTFORD/WINDSOR LOCKS. MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF -30C SAT
NIGHT.

INITIALLY THOUGHT THAT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE GIVEN VERY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE SO EXTREME WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE STILL PRESENT
THAT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE WITH JUST A
TRAJECTORY ACROSS CAPE COD BAY AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE EVEN JUST ACROSS
NANTUCKET SOUND. IN ADDITION...OPERATIONAL COMPUTER MODELS DEPICT
A MID LEVEL TROF...VERY APPARENT AT 700 MB...EXTENDING FROM THE SE
GULF OF MAINE BACK TO SE NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT. THIS MIGHT PROVIDE
AN OPPORTUNITY TO SEED THE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
MAKE IT A MORE INTERESTING NIGHT AT LEAST ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE
AND POSSIBLY NANTUCKET AS WELL. THIS IS AN UNUSUAL AND RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE SCENARIO...BUT WE SEE ENOUGH INGREDIENTS TO WARRANT
CHANCE POPS FOR AT LEAST THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET SAT NIGHT.

SUN...AIR MASS SLOWLY BEGINS TO MODERATE TO -20C TO -22C AT 850 MB
BUT STILL VERY COLD. ANTICIPATE MOST HIGH TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE BUT STILL A BRISK NW WIND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
WIND CHILL WATCH EXPIRES AT 1 PM.

SUN NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE SNOW COVER SHOULD
BE A GOOD SET UP FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY DROP TO NEAR OR SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO MOST INTERIOR
LOCATIONS AND NOT TOO MUCH ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE SE URBAN CENTERS.

MON...TEMPERATURES MODERATE CONSIDERABLY ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY TOP OFF BELOW FREEZING OUTSIDE OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE MEAN
LONG WAVE POSITION WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT
RUNS NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THERE IS CURRENTLY GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR AN INSIDE RUNNER...ALTHOUGH THE EVENT IS STILL
SEVERAL DAYS AWAY. CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD FAVOR SNOW CHANGING
RATHER QUICKLY TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN INLAND AND TO JUST
RAIN ALONG THE COAST. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AT 925 MB IN EXCESS OF
80 KT MAY PRESENT A WIND ISSUE IF ENOUGH OF THAT MOMENTUM CAN MIX TO
THE SURFACE...A QUESTION MARK AS AN INVERSION IS LIKELY TO EXIST.
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH RAFL FOR LOCAL STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON QPF THIS FAR OUT IS QUITE LOW.

WED THROUGH THU...FOR NOW THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH SHORT
WAVE ENERGY NOT SHARP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
REFLECTION. HOWEVER...SOME PRIOR MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN A CLIPPER
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH. IF
NOTHING ELSE...THE SHORT WAVE TROF SHOULD HELP USHER IN ANOTHER SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 00Z...SCT SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS CONFINED TO E
MA THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH SCT FLURRIES AND
BRIEF MVFR. PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARD EVENING. W/NW GUSTS TO
25-30KT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF VFR CIGS THIS EVENING...CLEARING
BY 03Z. W/NW GUSTS TO 20-30 KT IN THE EVENING...DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT INLAND BUT REMAINING GUSTY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR
CAPE/ISLANDS AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION WITH SOME ACCUM
LIKELY. SCT SNOW SHOWERS MAY EXTEND INTO SE MA...OTHERWISE A MIX
OF VFR/MVFR CIGS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT THROUGH SUN...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLAND...IMPROVING DURING SAT AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR FOR THE PERIOD BUT GUSTY NW SURFACE WINDS.

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. BECOMING IFR
WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN WITH AREAS OF FOG LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT AND FRI...A PERIOD OF W/NW GALES AROUND 35 KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION. WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND DROP BELOW SCA FRI MORNING WITH LIGHT SW WINDS
DEVELOPING FRI AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OVER E
MA WATERS AND CAPE COD BAY TONIGHT SO FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE.

FRI NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA. SW WINDS BECOMING NW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF
SNOW.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN GALE FORCE NW WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
INTO SUN. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A RISK FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.

WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT AND MON. A DEVELOPING LOW MOVING
ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS MAY PRODUCE SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF GALE FORCE ACROSS AT LEAST SOME OF THE WATERS TUE ALONG WITH
BUILDING SEAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. RECORD COLD
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. HERE ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH...

BOSTON.......15/1979 - 14/1916
HARTFORD.....11/1979 - 11/1979
PROVIDENCE...10/1979 - 10/1979
WORCESTER.... 8/1899 -  7/1979
BLUE HILL.... 9/1899 - 10/1979

RECORD COLD LOWS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH - 15TH...

BOSTON...... -3/1967 -  -3/1934 - -14/1943
HARTFORD.... -7/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943
PROVIDENCE.. -5/1967 -  -7/1979 - -14/1943
WORCESTER...-12/1967 - -11/1979 - -19/1943
BLUE HILL...-10/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ002>021-026.
RI...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...KJC/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...KJC/THOMPSON
MARINE...KJC/THOMPSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 120038
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
738 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT USHER IN A ANOTHER WAVE OF
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR TONIGHT. FRIDAY WILL SEE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASS TO OUR SOUTH WITH SOME SUN BUT HIGHS ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW LATE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE MID COAST REGION WILL BRING SNOW TO THE MID COAST AREA
SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS WILL BRING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS TO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM WILL AFFECT THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LIKELY WITH A MIX OF SNOW AND
RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
735 PM UPDATE...BAND OF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS THAT AFFECTED MAINLY
SOUTHERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS MOVED OFFSHORE
AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LOOKED LIKE A MINI-
NORLUN TROUGH THAT FOCUSED THAT BAND OF SNOWFALL. CLEARING SKIES
AND COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE THEME OVERNIGHT.

ALSO...A WIND CHILL WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING FOR AREAS THAT SHOULD SEE APPARENT TEMPERATURES
FALL TO 30 BELOW OR LOWER...WITH SOME BUFFER GIVEN TO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES WHERE IT MAY COME CLOSE.

525 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE NEAR TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TO BETTER CAPTURE THE HEAVY SNOWBAND SITUATED ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE
FROM STANDISH TO WESTBROOK TO SOUTH PORTLAND TO CAPE ELIZABETH. IT
IS CONSTRICTING A BIT BUT ALSO INTENSIFYING AS OF 520 PM. A QUICK
1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 630 BEFORE THE BAND
FINALLY MOVES OUT. AN SPS WAS ISSUED AT 450 PM FOR THIS PARTICULAR
FEATURE AND MAY HAVE TO BE REISSUED FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

PREVIOUSLY...

COLD FRONT JUST CROSSING INTO WRN NH ATTM...AND WINDS WILL PICK
UP THRU THE EVENING WITH TEMPS PLUNGING. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS
WHERE SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL LINGER THRU THE
EVENING...BUT EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT LATE. HAVE ISSUED WIND CHILL
ADV FOR THE ZONES ALONG THE INTL BORDER AS WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL STAY UP AROUND 10-15 MPH AND WILL
PRODUCE WINDS CHILLS OF -20 TO -25. LOW WILL FALL TO AROUND -5 IN
THE N...TO AROUND 5-10 F IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH SLIDES S OF THE REGION...WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL
HAVE SUBSIDED QUITE A BIT...SO IT SHOULD BE A FAIR DAY...EXCEPT
FOR HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRI NIGHT WE WILL BE BETWEEN TWO APPROACHING SYSTEMS...NRN STREAM
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW TRACKING OUT OF ONTARIO INTO NRN
NEW ENGLAND AND COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING WELL SO OF CAPE COD. THESE
TWO SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT AND BRING THE THREAT OF SOME SNOW TO THE
REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF FRI NIGHT. POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH
MAY DEVELOP LATE AND COULD BRING A STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
MID-COAST BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THU
NIGHT...BUT STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS...AND MAY
OCCUR CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT THAN DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE A RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM. MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A TROUGH NEAR THE MID-COAST
AREA WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY WEST OF THE
TROUGH. AT THIS TIME...AM FORECASTING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR THE
MIDCOAST AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE TROUGH
IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...RESIDENTS IN THE MID COAST AREA SHOULD BE AWARE THAT
SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY EVENING...A BLAST OF COLD AIR
WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE -20
TO -35 DEGREE RANGE LEADING TO THE ISSUANCE OF WIND CHILL
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. THE COLD AIR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WITH SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE MONDAY AS THE COLD AIR MOVES
EAST AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND PATH OF
THIS STORM. HOWEVER...LATEST RUNS INDICATE THAT THE PRECIP WILL
START AS SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS MUCH...IF
NOT ALL...OF THE AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. CONSIDERING THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL FORECAST SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND RAIN OR SNOW
TUESDAY...WITH THE LATEST MODELS FORECASTING A CHANGE TO RAIN ALL
AREAS.

COLDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE STORM DEPARTS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ONCE SHSN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECTING VFR
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI EVENING. NW WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 KTS AT HIS
TIME THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR IN SN LATE FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT
KRKD/KAUG AND KHIE.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW IN THE MID COAST AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STICKING WITH GALES IN THE WATERS S OF CASCO BAY
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT WILL PASS THE WATERS AROUND 5-6
PM AND WILL SEE A SURGE OF W-NW WINDS THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE SCA
LVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. THE RAPID FALL OF TEMPS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF MOD BLOWING SPRAY
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS WELL.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH FREEZING
SPRAY. GALES POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ012>014-018>022.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR MEZ007>009.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ006-008>010-012-013-015.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NHZ001>005-007-011.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...JENSENIUS/SINSABAUGH
AVIATION...CEMPA/JENSENIUS
MARINE...CEMPA/JENSENIUS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 120038
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
738 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT USHER IN A ANOTHER WAVE OF
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR TONIGHT. FRIDAY WILL SEE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASS TO OUR SOUTH WITH SOME SUN BUT HIGHS ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW LATE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE MID COAST REGION WILL BRING SNOW TO THE MID COAST AREA
SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS WILL BRING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS TO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM WILL AFFECT THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LIKELY WITH A MIX OF SNOW AND
RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
735 PM UPDATE...BAND OF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS THAT AFFECTED MAINLY
SOUTHERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS MOVED OFFSHORE
AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LOOKED LIKE A MINI-
NORLUN TROUGH THAT FOCUSED THAT BAND OF SNOWFALL. CLEARING SKIES
AND COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE THEME OVERNIGHT.

ALSO...A WIND CHILL WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING FOR AREAS THAT SHOULD SEE APPARENT TEMPERATURES
FALL TO 30 BELOW OR LOWER...WITH SOME BUFFER GIVEN TO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES WHERE IT MAY COME CLOSE.

525 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE NEAR TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TO BETTER CAPTURE THE HEAVY SNOWBAND SITUATED ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE
FROM STANDISH TO WESTBROOK TO SOUTH PORTLAND TO CAPE ELIZABETH. IT
IS CONSTRICTING A BIT BUT ALSO INTENSIFYING AS OF 520 PM. A QUICK
1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 630 BEFORE THE BAND
FINALLY MOVES OUT. AN SPS WAS ISSUED AT 450 PM FOR THIS PARTICULAR
FEATURE AND MAY HAVE TO BE REISSUED FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

PREVIOUSLY...

COLD FRONT JUST CROSSING INTO WRN NH ATTM...AND WINDS WILL PICK
UP THRU THE EVENING WITH TEMPS PLUNGING. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS
WHERE SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL LINGER THRU THE
EVENING...BUT EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT LATE. HAVE ISSUED WIND CHILL
ADV FOR THE ZONES ALONG THE INTL BORDER AS WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL STAY UP AROUND 10-15 MPH AND WILL
PRODUCE WINDS CHILLS OF -20 TO -25. LOW WILL FALL TO AROUND -5 IN
THE N...TO AROUND 5-10 F IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH SLIDES S OF THE REGION...WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL
HAVE SUBSIDED QUITE A BIT...SO IT SHOULD BE A FAIR DAY...EXCEPT
FOR HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRI NIGHT WE WILL BE BETWEEN TWO APPROACHING SYSTEMS...NRN STREAM
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW TRACKING OUT OF ONTARIO INTO NRN
NEW ENGLAND AND COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING WELL SO OF CAPE COD. THESE
TWO SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT AND BRING THE THREAT OF SOME SNOW TO THE
REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF FRI NIGHT. POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH
MAY DEVELOP LATE AND COULD BRING A STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
MID-COAST BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THU
NIGHT...BUT STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS...AND MAY
OCCUR CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT THAN DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE A RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM. MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A TROUGH NEAR THE MID-COAST
AREA WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY WEST OF THE
TROUGH. AT THIS TIME...AM FORECASTING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR THE
MIDCOAST AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE TROUGH
IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...RESIDENTS IN THE MID COAST AREA SHOULD BE AWARE THAT
SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY EVENING...A BLAST OF COLD AIR
WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE -20
TO -35 DEGREE RANGE LEADING TO THE ISSUANCE OF WIND CHILL
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. THE COLD AIR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WITH SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE MONDAY AS THE COLD AIR MOVES
EAST AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND PATH OF
THIS STORM. HOWEVER...LATEST RUNS INDICATE THAT THE PRECIP WILL
START AS SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS MUCH...IF
NOT ALL...OF THE AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. CONSIDERING THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL FORECAST SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND RAIN OR SNOW
TUESDAY...WITH THE LATEST MODELS FORECASTING A CHANGE TO RAIN ALL
AREAS.

COLDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE STORM DEPARTS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ONCE SHSN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECTING VFR
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI EVENING. NW WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 KTS AT HIS
TIME THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR IN SN LATE FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT
KRKD/KAUG AND KHIE.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW IN THE MID COAST AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STICKING WITH GALES IN THE WATERS S OF CASCO BAY
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT WILL PASS THE WATERS AROUND 5-6
PM AND WILL SEE A SURGE OF W-NW WINDS THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE SCA
LVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. THE RAPID FALL OF TEMPS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF MOD BLOWING SPRAY
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS WELL.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH FREEZING
SPRAY. GALES POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ012>014-018>022.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR MEZ007>009.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ006-008>010-012-013-015.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NHZ001>005-007-011.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...JENSENIUS/SINSABAUGH
AVIATION...CEMPA/JENSENIUS
MARINE...CEMPA/JENSENIUS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 120038
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
738 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT USHER IN A ANOTHER WAVE OF
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR TONIGHT. FRIDAY WILL SEE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASS TO OUR SOUTH WITH SOME SUN BUT HIGHS ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW LATE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE MID COAST REGION WILL BRING SNOW TO THE MID COAST AREA
SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS WILL BRING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS TO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM WILL AFFECT THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LIKELY WITH A MIX OF SNOW AND
RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
735 PM UPDATE...BAND OF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS THAT AFFECTED MAINLY
SOUTHERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS MOVED OFFSHORE
AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LOOKED LIKE A MINI-
NORLUN TROUGH THAT FOCUSED THAT BAND OF SNOWFALL. CLEARING SKIES
AND COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE THEME OVERNIGHT.

ALSO...A WIND CHILL WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING FOR AREAS THAT SHOULD SEE APPARENT TEMPERATURES
FALL TO 30 BELOW OR LOWER...WITH SOME BUFFER GIVEN TO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES WHERE IT MAY COME CLOSE.

525 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE NEAR TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TO BETTER CAPTURE THE HEAVY SNOWBAND SITUATED ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE
FROM STANDISH TO WESTBROOK TO SOUTH PORTLAND TO CAPE ELIZABETH. IT
IS CONSTRICTING A BIT BUT ALSO INTENSIFYING AS OF 520 PM. A QUICK
1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 630 BEFORE THE BAND
FINALLY MOVES OUT. AN SPS WAS ISSUED AT 450 PM FOR THIS PARTICULAR
FEATURE AND MAY HAVE TO BE REISSUED FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

PREVIOUSLY...

COLD FRONT JUST CROSSING INTO WRN NH ATTM...AND WINDS WILL PICK
UP THRU THE EVENING WITH TEMPS PLUNGING. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS
WHERE SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL LINGER THRU THE
EVENING...BUT EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT LATE. HAVE ISSUED WIND CHILL
ADV FOR THE ZONES ALONG THE INTL BORDER AS WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL STAY UP AROUND 10-15 MPH AND WILL
PRODUCE WINDS CHILLS OF -20 TO -25. LOW WILL FALL TO AROUND -5 IN
THE N...TO AROUND 5-10 F IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH SLIDES S OF THE REGION...WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL
HAVE SUBSIDED QUITE A BIT...SO IT SHOULD BE A FAIR DAY...EXCEPT
FOR HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRI NIGHT WE WILL BE BETWEEN TWO APPROACHING SYSTEMS...NRN STREAM
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW TRACKING OUT OF ONTARIO INTO NRN
NEW ENGLAND AND COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING WELL SO OF CAPE COD. THESE
TWO SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT AND BRING THE THREAT OF SOME SNOW TO THE
REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF FRI NIGHT. POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH
MAY DEVELOP LATE AND COULD BRING A STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
MID-COAST BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THU
NIGHT...BUT STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS...AND MAY
OCCUR CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT THAN DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE A RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM. MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A TROUGH NEAR THE MID-COAST
AREA WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY WEST OF THE
TROUGH. AT THIS TIME...AM FORECASTING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR THE
MIDCOAST AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE TROUGH
IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...RESIDENTS IN THE MID COAST AREA SHOULD BE AWARE THAT
SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY EVENING...A BLAST OF COLD AIR
WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE -20
TO -35 DEGREE RANGE LEADING TO THE ISSUANCE OF WIND CHILL
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. THE COLD AIR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WITH SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE MONDAY AS THE COLD AIR MOVES
EAST AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND PATH OF
THIS STORM. HOWEVER...LATEST RUNS INDICATE THAT THE PRECIP WILL
START AS SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS MUCH...IF
NOT ALL...OF THE AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. CONSIDERING THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL FORECAST SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND RAIN OR SNOW
TUESDAY...WITH THE LATEST MODELS FORECASTING A CHANGE TO RAIN ALL
AREAS.

COLDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE STORM DEPARTS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ONCE SHSN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECTING VFR
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI EVENING. NW WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 KTS AT HIS
TIME THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR IN SN LATE FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT
KRKD/KAUG AND KHIE.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW IN THE MID COAST AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STICKING WITH GALES IN THE WATERS S OF CASCO BAY
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT WILL PASS THE WATERS AROUND 5-6
PM AND WILL SEE A SURGE OF W-NW WINDS THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE SCA
LVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. THE RAPID FALL OF TEMPS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF MOD BLOWING SPRAY
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS WELL.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH FREEZING
SPRAY. GALES POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ012>014-018>022.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR MEZ007>009.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ006-008>010-012-013-015.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NHZ001>005-007-011.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...JENSENIUS/SINSABAUGH
AVIATION...CEMPA/JENSENIUS
MARINE...CEMPA/JENSENIUS




000
FXUS61 KBOX 120005
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
705 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT OM GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. AN OCEAN STORM WILL TRACK WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL DELIVER BITTERLY COLD WEATHER
THIS WEEKEND WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A STORM WILL
LIKELY BRING SNOW QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND TO
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN INLAND AS MUCH MILDER AIR MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
***WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND 10 BELOW ZERO LATE
 TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING***

7 PM UPDATE...

RADAR DEPICTS AN EXTENDED LAKE ENHANCED BAND FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO
THE BERKSHIRES BUT IT STRUGGLES TO STAY TOGETHER OVER THE
BERKSHIRE CREST. A FEW BANDS OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEPICTED
OFFSHORE AND SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...A FEW FLURRIES
SPILLING OVER THE BERKSHIRE CREST AND ACROSS SW HARTFORD COUNTY
SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT TEMPERATURES WERE
RUNNING 2 OR 3 DEGREES BELOW THE FORECAST AT 7 PM...BUT THE
FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK REASONABLE. JUST TWEAKED
THE HOURS TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS A LITTLE.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...

SCT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SNE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DISSIPATE BY EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AS
GOOD MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES IN. STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON GUSTY NW
WINDS WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -20C TONIGHT...THEN WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS...EXCEPT TEENS CAPE/ISLANDS. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP
TO ZERO TO 10 BELOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF MID ATLC COAST WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO
THE GT LAKES. WITH DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE REGION IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A LOW
PROB OF A FEW OCEAN EFFECT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS OVER CAPE/ISLANDS
TOWARD EVENING WITH SW FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT YIELDING OCEAN
INDUCED CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG...BUT MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW
WHICH WILL LIMIT ACTIVITY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW
AND MID 20S...WITH UPPER TEENS HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
*** ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS ***

INTERESTING SET UP AS OCEAN STORM TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE BUT POTENT
MID LEVEL TROF/SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL INDUCE AN
INVERTED TROF WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS SE NEW ENG. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING MOISTURE AND AREA OF GOOD LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MODEST OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION...FOCUSED ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS FRI NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW. SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT LIKELY GIVEN STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND OCEAN INDUCED CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG YIELDING
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW. SNOW ACCUM OF 1-3 INCHES
EXPECTED WITH LOW RISK OF UP TO 4 INCHES. ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EXTEND ACROSS S COASTAL MA WITH MINOR
ACCUM POSSIBLE BUT MAIN FOCUS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE
FRI NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN NEW
ENG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS SAT
* BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
  WEEKEND
* SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN LIKELY TUE AND TUE NIGHT

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED UPPER LOW PASSES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT ABOVE COLDEST
ARCTIC AIR WITNESSED HERE IN QUITE A WHILE. STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN GALES ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS
AND WIND CHILLS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LOW AND SURFACE HIGH MOVE
EAST SUN AND MON. SHORT WAVE TROF AMPLIFIES LONG WAVE TROF
POSITION IN NORTH AMERICA BUT SO SHARPLY THAT SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
MOVE NORTH ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS AN INSIDE
RUNNER. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BEING SHOWN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST IT
IS NOT THE RIGHT SYNOPTIC SET UP FOR COLD AIR DAMMING. THUS...ANY
SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN AT THE OUTSET WILL LIKELY CHANGE RATHER
QUICKLY TO RAIN EVEN FAR INLAND. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS THAT THIS
EVENT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND COULD SEE SOME VARIATIONS IN
MODEL OUTPUT AS THE ENERGY REACHING NORTH AMERICA BECOMES BETTER
RESOLVED IN THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.

DETAILS...

SAT...SNOW ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF AN OCEAN STORM SHOULD END ACROSS CAPE
COD...MARTHA/S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET DURING SAT MORNING. OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST FOR A WHILE LONGER OVER THE OUTER
CAPE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL LAYER OF A VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATE...THE MEAN FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS ENOUGH
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS OFFSHORE.

THE MAIN SHOW OF THE ARCTIC BLAST ARRIVES BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH
STRONG NW WINDS DRIVING WIND CHILLS DRAMATICALLY LOWER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND HENCE BEGINNING THE WIND CHILL WATCH AT 1800 UTC OR 1
PM EST. THE TEMPERATURES THEMSELVES MAY RISE A FEW DEGREES OR SO
FROM EARLY MORNING TO MIDDAY AND THEN FALL STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON.

SAT NIGHT...MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD. WIND CHILL WATCH IN
EFFECT FOR POTENTIAL WIND CHILLS OF -25 TO -30 ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THE WIND CHILL WATCH COVERS ALL BUT THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE TO SEE IF THE WATCH
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED TO THE CAPE...MARTHA/S VINEYARD...NANTUCKET AND
BLOCK ISLAND. NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR SUN
MORNING AT MOST SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LOCATIONS INCLUDING
BOSTON...WORCESTER AND HARTFORD/WINDSOR LOCKS. MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF -30C SAT
NIGHT. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE.

SUN...AIR MASS SLOWLY BEGINS TO MODERATE TO -20C TO -22C AT 850 MB
BUT STILL VERY COLD. ANTICIPATE MOST HIGH TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE BUT STILL A BRISK NW WIND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
WIND CHILL WATCH EXPIRES AT 1 PM.

SUN NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE SNOW COVER SHOULD
BE A GOOD SET UP FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY DROP TO NEAR OR SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO MOST INTERIOR
LOCATIONS AND NOT TOO MUCH ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE SE URBAN CENTERS.

MON...TEMPERATURES MODERATE CONSIDERABLY ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY TOP OFF BELOW FREEZING OUTSIDE OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE MEAN
LONG WAVE POSITION WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT
RUNS NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THERE IS CURRENTLY GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR AN INSIDE RUNNER...ALTHOUGH THE EVENT IS STILL
SEVERAL DAYS AWAY. CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD FAVOR SNOW CHANGING
RATHER QUICKLY TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN INLAND AND TO JUST
RAIN ALONG THE COAST. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AT 925 MB IN EXCESS OF
80 KT MAY PRESENT A WIND ISSUE IF ENOUGH OF THAT MOMENTUM CAN MIX TO
THE SURFACE...A QUESTION MARK AS AN INVERSION IS LIKELY TO EXIST.
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH RAFL FOR LOCAL STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON QPF THIS FAR OUT IS QUITE LOW.

WED THROUGH THU...FOR NOW THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH SHORT
WAVE ENERGY NOT SHARP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
REFLECTION. HOWEVER...SOME PRIOR MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN A CLIPPER
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH. IF
NOTHING ELSE...THE SHORT WAVE TROF SHOULD HELP USHER IN ANOTHER SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 00Z...SCT SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS CONFINED TO E
MA THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH SCT FLURRIES AND
BRIEF MVFR. PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARD EVENING. W/NW GUSTS TO
25-30KT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF VFR CIGS THIS EVENING...CLEARING
BY 03Z. W/NW GUSTS TO 20-30 KT IN THE EVENING...DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT INLAND BUT REMAINING GUSTY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR
CAPE/ISLANDS AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION WITH SOME ACCUM
LIKELY. SCT SNOW SHOWERS MAY EXTEND INTO SE MA...OTHERWISE A MIX
OF VFR/MVFR CIGS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT THROUGH SUN...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLAND...IMPROVING DURING SAT AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR FOR THE PERIOD BUT GUSTY NW SURFACE WINDS.

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. BECOMING IFR
WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN WITH AREAS OF FOG LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT AND FRI...A PERIOD OF W/NW GALES AROUND 35 KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION. WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND DROP BELOW SCA FRI MORNING WITH LIGHT SW WINDS
DEVELOPING FRI AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OVER E
MA WATERS AND CAPE COD BAY TONIGHT SO FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE.

FRI NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA. SW WINDS BECOMING NW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF
SNOW.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN GALE FORCE NW WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
INTO SUN. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A RISK FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.

WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT AND MON. A DEVELOPING LOW MOVING
ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS MAY PRODUCE SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF GALE FORCE ACROSS AT LEAST SOME OF THE WATERS TUE ALONG WITH
BUILDING SEAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. RECORD COLD
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. HERE ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH...

BOSTON.......15/1979 - 14/1916
HARTFORD.....11/1979 - 11/1979
PROVIDENCE...10/1979 - 10/1979
WORCESTER.... 8/1899 -  7/1979
BLUE HILL.... 9/1899 - 10/1979

RECORD COLD LOWS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH - 15TH...

BOSTON...... -3/1967 -  -3/1934 - -14/1943
HARTFORD.... -7/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943
PROVIDENCE.. -5/1967 -  -7/1979 - -14/1943
WORCESTER...-12/1967 - -11/1979 - -19/1943
BLUE HILL...-10/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ002>021-026.
RI...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...KJC/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...KJC/THOMPSON
MARINE...KJC/THOMPSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 120005
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
705 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT OM GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. AN OCEAN STORM WILL TRACK WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL DELIVER BITTERLY COLD WEATHER
THIS WEEKEND WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A STORM WILL
LIKELY BRING SNOW QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND TO
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN INLAND AS MUCH MILDER AIR MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
***WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND 10 BELOW ZERO LATE
 TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING***

7 PM UPDATE...

RADAR DEPICTS AN EXTENDED LAKE ENHANCED BAND FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO
THE BERKSHIRES BUT IT STRUGGLES TO STAY TOGETHER OVER THE
BERKSHIRE CREST. A FEW BANDS OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEPICTED
OFFSHORE AND SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...A FEW FLURRIES
SPILLING OVER THE BERKSHIRE CREST AND ACROSS SW HARTFORD COUNTY
SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT TEMPERATURES WERE
RUNNING 2 OR 3 DEGREES BELOW THE FORECAST AT 7 PM...BUT THE
FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK REASONABLE. JUST TWEAKED
THE HOURS TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS A LITTLE.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...

SCT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SNE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DISSIPATE BY EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AS
GOOD MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES IN. STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON GUSTY NW
WINDS WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -20C TONIGHT...THEN WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS...EXCEPT TEENS CAPE/ISLANDS. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP
TO ZERO TO 10 BELOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF MID ATLC COAST WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO
THE GT LAKES. WITH DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE REGION IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A LOW
PROB OF A FEW OCEAN EFFECT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS OVER CAPE/ISLANDS
TOWARD EVENING WITH SW FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT YIELDING OCEAN
INDUCED CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG...BUT MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW
WHICH WILL LIMIT ACTIVITY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW
AND MID 20S...WITH UPPER TEENS HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
*** ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS ***

INTERESTING SET UP AS OCEAN STORM TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE BUT POTENT
MID LEVEL TROF/SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL INDUCE AN
INVERTED TROF WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS SE NEW ENG. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING MOISTURE AND AREA OF GOOD LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MODEST OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION...FOCUSED ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS FRI NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW. SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT LIKELY GIVEN STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND OCEAN INDUCED CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG YIELDING
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW. SNOW ACCUM OF 1-3 INCHES
EXPECTED WITH LOW RISK OF UP TO 4 INCHES. ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EXTEND ACROSS S COASTAL MA WITH MINOR
ACCUM POSSIBLE BUT MAIN FOCUS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE
FRI NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN NEW
ENG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS SAT
* BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
  WEEKEND
* SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN LIKELY TUE AND TUE NIGHT

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED UPPER LOW PASSES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT ABOVE COLDEST
ARCTIC AIR WITNESSED HERE IN QUITE A WHILE. STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN GALES ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS
AND WIND CHILLS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LOW AND SURFACE HIGH MOVE
EAST SUN AND MON. SHORT WAVE TROF AMPLIFIES LONG WAVE TROF
POSITION IN NORTH AMERICA BUT SO SHARPLY THAT SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
MOVE NORTH ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS AN INSIDE
RUNNER. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BEING SHOWN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST IT
IS NOT THE RIGHT SYNOPTIC SET UP FOR COLD AIR DAMMING. THUS...ANY
SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN AT THE OUTSET WILL LIKELY CHANGE RATHER
QUICKLY TO RAIN EVEN FAR INLAND. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS THAT THIS
EVENT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND COULD SEE SOME VARIATIONS IN
MODEL OUTPUT AS THE ENERGY REACHING NORTH AMERICA BECOMES BETTER
RESOLVED IN THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.

DETAILS...

SAT...SNOW ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF AN OCEAN STORM SHOULD END ACROSS CAPE
COD...MARTHA/S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET DURING SAT MORNING. OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST FOR A WHILE LONGER OVER THE OUTER
CAPE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL LAYER OF A VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATE...THE MEAN FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS ENOUGH
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS OFFSHORE.

THE MAIN SHOW OF THE ARCTIC BLAST ARRIVES BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH
STRONG NW WINDS DRIVING WIND CHILLS DRAMATICALLY LOWER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND HENCE BEGINNING THE WIND CHILL WATCH AT 1800 UTC OR 1
PM EST. THE TEMPERATURES THEMSELVES MAY RISE A FEW DEGREES OR SO
FROM EARLY MORNING TO MIDDAY AND THEN FALL STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON.

SAT NIGHT...MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD. WIND CHILL WATCH IN
EFFECT FOR POTENTIAL WIND CHILLS OF -25 TO -30 ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THE WIND CHILL WATCH COVERS ALL BUT THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE TO SEE IF THE WATCH
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED TO THE CAPE...MARTHA/S VINEYARD...NANTUCKET AND
BLOCK ISLAND. NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR SUN
MORNING AT MOST SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LOCATIONS INCLUDING
BOSTON...WORCESTER AND HARTFORD/WINDSOR LOCKS. MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF -30C SAT
NIGHT. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE.

SUN...AIR MASS SLOWLY BEGINS TO MODERATE TO -20C TO -22C AT 850 MB
BUT STILL VERY COLD. ANTICIPATE MOST HIGH TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE BUT STILL A BRISK NW WIND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
WIND CHILL WATCH EXPIRES AT 1 PM.

SUN NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE SNOW COVER SHOULD
BE A GOOD SET UP FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY DROP TO NEAR OR SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO MOST INTERIOR
LOCATIONS AND NOT TOO MUCH ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE SE URBAN CENTERS.

MON...TEMPERATURES MODERATE CONSIDERABLY ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY TOP OFF BELOW FREEZING OUTSIDE OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE MEAN
LONG WAVE POSITION WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT
RUNS NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THERE IS CURRENTLY GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR AN INSIDE RUNNER...ALTHOUGH THE EVENT IS STILL
SEVERAL DAYS AWAY. CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD FAVOR SNOW CHANGING
RATHER QUICKLY TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN INLAND AND TO JUST
RAIN ALONG THE COAST. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AT 925 MB IN EXCESS OF
80 KT MAY PRESENT A WIND ISSUE IF ENOUGH OF THAT MOMENTUM CAN MIX TO
THE SURFACE...A QUESTION MARK AS AN INVERSION IS LIKELY TO EXIST.
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH RAFL FOR LOCAL STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON QPF THIS FAR OUT IS QUITE LOW.

WED THROUGH THU...FOR NOW THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH SHORT
WAVE ENERGY NOT SHARP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
REFLECTION. HOWEVER...SOME PRIOR MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN A CLIPPER
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH. IF
NOTHING ELSE...THE SHORT WAVE TROF SHOULD HELP USHER IN ANOTHER SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 00Z...SCT SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS CONFINED TO E
MA THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH SCT FLURRIES AND
BRIEF MVFR. PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARD EVENING. W/NW GUSTS TO
25-30KT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF VFR CIGS THIS EVENING...CLEARING
BY 03Z. W/NW GUSTS TO 20-30 KT IN THE EVENING...DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT INLAND BUT REMAINING GUSTY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR
CAPE/ISLANDS AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION WITH SOME ACCUM
LIKELY. SCT SNOW SHOWERS MAY EXTEND INTO SE MA...OTHERWISE A MIX
OF VFR/MVFR CIGS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT THROUGH SUN...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLAND...IMPROVING DURING SAT AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR FOR THE PERIOD BUT GUSTY NW SURFACE WINDS.

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. BECOMING IFR
WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN WITH AREAS OF FOG LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT AND FRI...A PERIOD OF W/NW GALES AROUND 35 KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION. WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND DROP BELOW SCA FRI MORNING WITH LIGHT SW WINDS
DEVELOPING FRI AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OVER E
MA WATERS AND CAPE COD BAY TONIGHT SO FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE.

FRI NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA. SW WINDS BECOMING NW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF
SNOW.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN GALE FORCE NW WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
INTO SUN. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A RISK FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.

WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT AND MON. A DEVELOPING LOW MOVING
ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS MAY PRODUCE SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF GALE FORCE ACROSS AT LEAST SOME OF THE WATERS TUE ALONG WITH
BUILDING SEAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. RECORD COLD
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. HERE ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH...

BOSTON.......15/1979 - 14/1916
HARTFORD.....11/1979 - 11/1979
PROVIDENCE...10/1979 - 10/1979
WORCESTER.... 8/1899 -  7/1979
BLUE HILL.... 9/1899 - 10/1979

RECORD COLD LOWS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH - 15TH...

BOSTON...... -3/1967 -  -3/1934 - -14/1943
HARTFORD.... -7/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943
PROVIDENCE.. -5/1967 -  -7/1979 - -14/1943
WORCESTER...-12/1967 - -11/1979 - -19/1943
BLUE HILL...-10/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ002>021-026.
RI...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...KJC/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...KJC/THOMPSON
MARINE...KJC/THOMPSON
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 120005
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
705 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT OM GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. AN OCEAN STORM WILL TRACK WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL DELIVER BITTERLY COLD WEATHER
THIS WEEKEND WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A STORM WILL
LIKELY BRING SNOW QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND TO
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN INLAND AS MUCH MILDER AIR MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
***WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND 10 BELOW ZERO LATE
 TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING***

7 PM UPDATE...

RADAR DEPICTS AN EXTENDED LAKE ENHANCED BAND FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO
THE BERKSHIRES BUT IT STRUGGLES TO STAY TOGETHER OVER THE
BERKSHIRE CREST. A FEW BANDS OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEPICTED
OFFSHORE AND SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...A FEW FLURRIES
SPILLING OVER THE BERKSHIRE CREST AND ACROSS SW HARTFORD COUNTY
SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT TEMPERATURES WERE
RUNNING 2 OR 3 DEGREES BELOW THE FORECAST AT 7 PM...BUT THE
FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK REASONABLE. JUST TWEAKED
THE HOURS TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS A LITTLE.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...

SCT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SNE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DISSIPATE BY EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AS
GOOD MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES IN. STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON GUSTY NW
WINDS WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -20C TONIGHT...THEN WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS...EXCEPT TEENS CAPE/ISLANDS. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP
TO ZERO TO 10 BELOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF MID ATLC COAST WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO
THE GT LAKES. WITH DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE REGION IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A LOW
PROB OF A FEW OCEAN EFFECT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS OVER CAPE/ISLANDS
TOWARD EVENING WITH SW FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT YIELDING OCEAN
INDUCED CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG...BUT MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW
WHICH WILL LIMIT ACTIVITY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW
AND MID 20S...WITH UPPER TEENS HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
*** ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS ***

INTERESTING SET UP AS OCEAN STORM TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE BUT POTENT
MID LEVEL TROF/SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL INDUCE AN
INVERTED TROF WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS SE NEW ENG. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING MOISTURE AND AREA OF GOOD LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MODEST OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION...FOCUSED ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS FRI NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW. SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT LIKELY GIVEN STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND OCEAN INDUCED CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG YIELDING
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW. SNOW ACCUM OF 1-3 INCHES
EXPECTED WITH LOW RISK OF UP TO 4 INCHES. ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EXTEND ACROSS S COASTAL MA WITH MINOR
ACCUM POSSIBLE BUT MAIN FOCUS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE
FRI NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN NEW
ENG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS SAT
* BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
  WEEKEND
* SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN LIKELY TUE AND TUE NIGHT

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED UPPER LOW PASSES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT ABOVE COLDEST
ARCTIC AIR WITNESSED HERE IN QUITE A WHILE. STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN GALES ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS
AND WIND CHILLS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LOW AND SURFACE HIGH MOVE
EAST SUN AND MON. SHORT WAVE TROF AMPLIFIES LONG WAVE TROF
POSITION IN NORTH AMERICA BUT SO SHARPLY THAT SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
MOVE NORTH ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS AN INSIDE
RUNNER. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BEING SHOWN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST IT
IS NOT THE RIGHT SYNOPTIC SET UP FOR COLD AIR DAMMING. THUS...ANY
SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN AT THE OUTSET WILL LIKELY CHANGE RATHER
QUICKLY TO RAIN EVEN FAR INLAND. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS THAT THIS
EVENT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND COULD SEE SOME VARIATIONS IN
MODEL OUTPUT AS THE ENERGY REACHING NORTH AMERICA BECOMES BETTER
RESOLVED IN THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.

DETAILS...

SAT...SNOW ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF AN OCEAN STORM SHOULD END ACROSS CAPE
COD...MARTHA/S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET DURING SAT MORNING. OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST FOR A WHILE LONGER OVER THE OUTER
CAPE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL LAYER OF A VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATE...THE MEAN FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS ENOUGH
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS OFFSHORE.

THE MAIN SHOW OF THE ARCTIC BLAST ARRIVES BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH
STRONG NW WINDS DRIVING WIND CHILLS DRAMATICALLY LOWER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND HENCE BEGINNING THE WIND CHILL WATCH AT 1800 UTC OR 1
PM EST. THE TEMPERATURES THEMSELVES MAY RISE A FEW DEGREES OR SO
FROM EARLY MORNING TO MIDDAY AND THEN FALL STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON.

SAT NIGHT...MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD. WIND CHILL WATCH IN
EFFECT FOR POTENTIAL WIND CHILLS OF -25 TO -30 ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THE WIND CHILL WATCH COVERS ALL BUT THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE TO SEE IF THE WATCH
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED TO THE CAPE...MARTHA/S VINEYARD...NANTUCKET AND
BLOCK ISLAND. NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR SUN
MORNING AT MOST SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LOCATIONS INCLUDING
BOSTON...WORCESTER AND HARTFORD/WINDSOR LOCKS. MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF -30C SAT
NIGHT. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE.

SUN...AIR MASS SLOWLY BEGINS TO MODERATE TO -20C TO -22C AT 850 MB
BUT STILL VERY COLD. ANTICIPATE MOST HIGH TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE BUT STILL A BRISK NW WIND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
WIND CHILL WATCH EXPIRES AT 1 PM.

SUN NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE SNOW COVER SHOULD
BE A GOOD SET UP FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY DROP TO NEAR OR SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO MOST INTERIOR
LOCATIONS AND NOT TOO MUCH ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE SE URBAN CENTERS.

MON...TEMPERATURES MODERATE CONSIDERABLY ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY TOP OFF BELOW FREEZING OUTSIDE OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE MEAN
LONG WAVE POSITION WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT
RUNS NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THERE IS CURRENTLY GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR AN INSIDE RUNNER...ALTHOUGH THE EVENT IS STILL
SEVERAL DAYS AWAY. CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD FAVOR SNOW CHANGING
RATHER QUICKLY TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN INLAND AND TO JUST
RAIN ALONG THE COAST. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AT 925 MB IN EXCESS OF
80 KT MAY PRESENT A WIND ISSUE IF ENOUGH OF THAT MOMENTUM CAN MIX TO
THE SURFACE...A QUESTION MARK AS AN INVERSION IS LIKELY TO EXIST.
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH RAFL FOR LOCAL STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON QPF THIS FAR OUT IS QUITE LOW.

WED THROUGH THU...FOR NOW THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH SHORT
WAVE ENERGY NOT SHARP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
REFLECTION. HOWEVER...SOME PRIOR MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN A CLIPPER
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH. IF
NOTHING ELSE...THE SHORT WAVE TROF SHOULD HELP USHER IN ANOTHER SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 00Z...SCT SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS CONFINED TO E
MA THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH SCT FLURRIES AND
BRIEF MVFR. PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARD EVENING. W/NW GUSTS TO
25-30KT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF VFR CIGS THIS EVENING...CLEARING
BY 03Z. W/NW GUSTS TO 20-30 KT IN THE EVENING...DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT INLAND BUT REMAINING GUSTY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR
CAPE/ISLANDS AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION WITH SOME ACCUM
LIKELY. SCT SNOW SHOWERS MAY EXTEND INTO SE MA...OTHERWISE A MIX
OF VFR/MVFR CIGS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT THROUGH SUN...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLAND...IMPROVING DURING SAT AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR FOR THE PERIOD BUT GUSTY NW SURFACE WINDS.

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. BECOMING IFR
WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN WITH AREAS OF FOG LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT AND FRI...A PERIOD OF W/NW GALES AROUND 35 KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION. WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND DROP BELOW SCA FRI MORNING WITH LIGHT SW WINDS
DEVELOPING FRI AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OVER E
MA WATERS AND CAPE COD BAY TONIGHT SO FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE.

FRI NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA. SW WINDS BECOMING NW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF
SNOW.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN GALE FORCE NW WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
INTO SUN. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A RISK FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.

WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT AND MON. A DEVELOPING LOW MOVING
ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS MAY PRODUCE SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF GALE FORCE ACROSS AT LEAST SOME OF THE WATERS TUE ALONG WITH
BUILDING SEAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. RECORD COLD
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. HERE ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH...

BOSTON.......15/1979 - 14/1916
HARTFORD.....11/1979 - 11/1979
PROVIDENCE...10/1979 - 10/1979
WORCESTER.... 8/1899 -  7/1979
BLUE HILL.... 9/1899 - 10/1979

RECORD COLD LOWS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH - 15TH...

BOSTON...... -3/1967 -  -3/1934 - -14/1943
HARTFORD.... -7/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943
PROVIDENCE.. -5/1967 -  -7/1979 - -14/1943
WORCESTER...-12/1967 - -11/1979 - -19/1943
BLUE HILL...-10/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ002>021-026.
RI...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...KJC/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...KJC/THOMPSON
MARINE...KJC/THOMPSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 112229
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
529 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT USHER IN A ANOTHER WAVE OF
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR TONIGHT. FRIDAY WILL SEE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASS TO OUR SOUTH WITH SOME SUN BUT HIGHS ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW LATE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE MID COAST REGION WILL BRING SNOW TO THE MID COAST AREA
SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS WILL BRING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS TO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM WILL AFFECT THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LIKELY WITH A MIX OF SNOW AND
RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
525 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE NEAR TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TO BETTER CAPTURE THE HEAVY SNOWBAND SITUATED ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE
FROM STANDISH TO WESTBROOK TO SOUTH PORTLAND TO CAPE ELIZABETH. IT
IS CONSTRICTING A BIT BUT ALSO INTENSIFYING AS OF 520 PM. A QUICK
1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 630 BEFORE THE BAND
FINALLY MOVES OUT. AN SPS WAS ISSUED AT 450 PM FOR THIS PARTICULAR
FEATURE AND MAY HAVE TO BE REISSUED FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

PREVIOUSLY...

COLD FRONT JUST CROSSING INTO WRN NH ATTM...AND WINDS WILL PICK
UP THRU THE EVENING WITH TEMPS PLUNGING. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS
WHERE SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL LINGER THRU THE
EVENING...BUT EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT LATE. HAVE ISSUED WIND CHILL
ADV FOR THE ZONES ALONG THE INTL BORDER AS WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL STAY UP AROUND 10-15 MPH AND WILL
PRODUCE WINDS CHILLS OF -20 TO -25. LOW WILL FALL TO AROUND -5 IN
THE N...TO AROUND 5-10 F IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH SLIDES S OF THE REGION...WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL
HAVE SUBSIDED QUITE A BIT...SO IT SHOULD BE A FAIR DAY...EXCEPT
FOR HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRI NIGHT WE WILL BE BETWEEN TWO APPROACHING SYSTEMS...NRN STREAM
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW TRACKING OUT OF ONTARIO INTO NRN
NEW ENGLAND AND COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING WELL SO OF CAPE COD. THESE
TWO SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT AND BRING THE THREAT OF SOME SNOW TO THE
REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF FRI NIGHT. POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH
MAY DEVELOP LATE AND COULD BRING A STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
MID-COAST BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THU
NIGHT...BUT STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS...AND MAY
OCCUR CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT THAN DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE A RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM. MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A TROUGH NEAR THE MID-COAST
AREA WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY WEST OF THE
TROUGH. AT THIS TIME...AM FORECASTING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR THE
MIDCOAST AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE TROUGH
IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...RESIDENTS IN THE MID COAST AREA SHOULD BE AWARE THAT
SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY EVENING...A BLAST OF COLD AIR
WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE -20
TO -35 DEGREE RANGE LEADING TO THE ISSUANCE OF WIND CHILL
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. THE COLD AIR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WITH SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE MONDAY AS THE COLD AIR MOVES
EAST AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND PATH OF
THIS STORM. HOWEVER...LATEST RUNS INDICATE THAT THE PRECIP WILL
START AS SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS MUCH...IF
NOT ALL...OF THE AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. CONSIDERING THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL FORECAST SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND RAIN OR SNOW
TUESDAY...WITH THE LATEST MODELS FORECASTING A CHANGE TO RAIN ALL
AREAS.

COLDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE STORM DEPARTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ONCE SHSN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECTING VFR
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI EVENING. NW WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 KTS AT HIS
TIME THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR IN SN LATE FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT
KRKD/KAUG AND KHIE.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW IN THE MID COAST AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STICKING WITH GALES IN THE WATERS S OF CASCO BAY
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT WILL PASS THE WATERS AROUND 5-6
PM AND WILL SEE A SURGE OF W-NW WINDS THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE SCA
LVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. THE RAPID FALL OF TEMPS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF MOD BLOWING SPRAY
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS WELL.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH FREEZING
SPRAY. GALES POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...JENSENIUS/SINSABAUGH
AVIATION...CEMPA/JENSENIUS
MARINE...CEMPA/JENSENIUS




000
FXUS61 KBOX 112153
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
453 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT OM GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. AN OCEAN STORM WILL TRACK WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL DELIVER BITTERLY COLD WEATHER
THIS WEEKEND WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A STORM WILL
LIKELY BRING SNOW QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND TO
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN INLAND AS MUCH MILDER AIR MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
***WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND 10 BELOW ZERO LATE
 TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING***

SCT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SNE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DISSIPATE BY EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AS
GOOD MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES IN. STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON GUSTY NW
WINDS WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -20C TONIGHT...THEN WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS...EXCEPT TEENS CAPE/ISLANDS. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP
TO ZERO TO 10 BELOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF MID ATLC COAST WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO
THE GT LAKES. WITH DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE REGION IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A LOW
PROB OF A FEW OCEAN EFFECT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS OVER CAPE/ISLANDS
TOWARD EVENING WITH SW FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT YIELDING OCEAN
INDUCED CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG...BUT MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW
WHICH WILL LIMIT ACTIVITY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW
AND MID 20S...WITH UPPER TEENS HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
*** ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS ***

INTERESTING SET UP AS OCEAN STORM TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE BUT POTENT
MID LEVEL TROF/SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL INDUCE AN
INVERTED TROF WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS SE NEW ENG. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING MOISTURE AND AREA OF GOOD LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MODEST OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION...FOCUSED ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS FRI NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW. SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT LIKELY GIVEN STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND OCEAN INDUCED CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG YIELDING
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW. SNOW ACCUM OF 1-3 INCHES
EXPECTED WITH LOW RISK OF UP TO 4 INCHES. ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EXTEND ACROSS S COASTAL MA WITH MINOR
ACCUM POSSIBLE BUT MAIN FOCUS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE
FRI NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN NEW
ENG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS SAT
* BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
  WEEKEND
* SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN LIKELY TUE AND TUE NIGHT

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED UPPER LOW PASSES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT ABOVE COLDEST
ARCTIC AIR WITNESSED HERE IN QUITE A WHILE. STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN GALES ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS
AND WIND CHILLS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LOW AND SURFACE HIGH MOVE
EAST. SHORT WAVE TROF AMPLIFIES LONG WAVE TROF POSITION IN NORTH
AMERICA BUT SO SHARPLY THAT SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE NORTH ALONG
OR JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS AN INSIDE RUNNER. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH BEING SHOWN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST IT IS NOT THE RIGHT
SYNOPTIC SET UP FOR COLD AIR DAMMING. THUS...ANY SNOW OR FREEZING
RAIN AT THE OUTSET WILL LIKELY CHANGE RATHER QUICKLY TO RAIN EVEN
FAR INLAND. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS THAT THIS EVENT IS STILL SEVERAL
DAYS AWAY AND COULD SEE SOME VARIATIONS IN MODEL OUTPUT AS THE
ENERGY REACHING NORTH AMERICA BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED IN THE UPPER
AIR NETWORK.

DETAILS...

SAT...SNOW ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF AN OCEAN STORM SHOULD END ACROSS CAPE
COD...MARTHA/S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET DURING SAT MORNING. OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST FOR A WHILE LONGER OVER THE OUTER
CAPE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL LAYER OF A VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATE...THE MEAN FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS ENOUGH
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS OFFSHORE.

THE MAIN SHOW OF THE ARCTIC BLAST ARRIVES BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH
STRONG NW WINDS DRIVING WIND CHILLS DRAMATICALLY LOWER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND HENCE BEGINNING THE WIND CHILL WATCH AT 1800 UTC OR 1
PM EST. THE TEMPERATURES THEMSELVES MAY RISE A FEW DEGREES OR SO
FROM EARLY MORNING TO MIDDAY AND THEN FALL STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON.

SAT NIGHT...MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD. WIND CHILL WATCH IN
EFFECT FOR POTENTIAL WIND CHILLS OF -25 TO -30 ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THE WIND CHILL WATCH COVERS ALL BUT THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE TO SEE IF THE WATCH
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED TO THE CAPE...MARTHA/S VINEYARD...NANTUCKET AND
BLOCK ISLAND. NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR SUN
MORNING AT MOST SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LOCATIONS INCLUDING
BOSTON...WORCESTER AND HARTFORD/WINDSOR LOCKS. MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF -30C SAT
NIGHT. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE.

SUN...AIR MASS SLOWLY BEGINS TO MODERATE TO -20C TO -22C AT 850 MB
BUT STILL VERY COLD. ANTICIPATE MOST HIGH TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE BUT STILL A BRISK NW WIND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
WIND CHILL WATCH EXPIRES AT 1 PM.

SUN NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE SNOW COVER SHOULD
BE A GOOD SET UP FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY DROP TO NEAR OR SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO MOST INTERIOR
LOCATIONS AND NOT TOO MUCH ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE SE URBAN CENTERS.

MON...TEMPERATURES MODERATE CONSIDERABLY ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY TOP OFF BELOW FREEZING OUTSIDE OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE MEAN
LONG WAVE POSITION WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT
RUNS NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THERE IS CURRENTLY GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR AN INSIDE RUNNER...ALTHOUGH THE EVENT IS STILL
SEVERAL DAYS AWAY. CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD FAVOR SNOW CHANGING
RATHER QUICKLY TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN INLAND AND TO JUST
RAIN ALONG THE COAST. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AT 925 MB IN EXCESS OF
80 KT MAY PRESENT A WIND ISSUE IF ENOUGH OF THAT MOMENTUM CAN MIX TO
THE SURFACE...A QUESTION MARK AS AN INVERSION IS LIKELY TO EXIST.
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH RAFL FOR LOCAL STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON QPF THIS FAR OUT IS QUITE LOW.

WED THROUGH THU...FOR NOW THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH SHORT
WAVE ENERGY NOT SHARP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
REFLECTION. HOWEVER...SOME PRIOR MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN A CLIPPER
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH. IF
NOTHING ELSE...THE SHORT WAVE TROF SHOULD HELP USHER IN ANOTHER SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 00Z...SCT SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS CONFINED TO E
MA THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH SCT FLURRIES AND
BRIEF MVFR. PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARD EVENING. W/NW GUSTS TO
25-30KT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CIGS EVENING...THEN CLEARING. W/NW
GUSTS TO 20-30 KT IN THE EVENING...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT BUT
REMAINING GUSTY ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR
CAPE/ISLANDS AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION WITH SOME ACCUM
LIKELY. SCT SNOW SHOWERS MAY EXTEND INTO SE MA...OTHERWISE A MIX
OF VFR/MVFR CIGS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT THROUGH SUN...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLAND...IMPROVING DURING SAT AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR FOR THE PERIOD BUT GUSTY NW SURFACE WINDS.

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. BECOMING IFR
WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN WITH AREAS OF FOG LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT AND FRI...A PERIOD OF W/NW GALES AROUND 35 KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION. WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND DROP BELOW SCA FRI MORNING WITH LIGHT SW WINDS
DEVELOPING FRI AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OVER E
MA WATERS AND CAPE COD BAY TONIGHT SO FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE.

FRI NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA. SW WINDS BECOMING NW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF
SNOW.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN GALE FORCE NW WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
INTO SUN. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A RISK FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.

WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT AND MON. A DEVELOPING LOW MOVING
ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS MAY PRODUCE SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF GALE FORCE ACROSS AT LEAST SOME OF THE WATERS TUE ALONG WITH
BUILDING SEAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. RECORD COLD
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. HERE ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH...

BOSTON.......15/1979 - 14/1916
HARTFORD.....11/1979 - 11/1979
PROVIDENCE...10/1979 - 10/1979
WORCESTER.... 8/1899 -  7/1979
BLUE HILL.... 9/1899 - 10/1979

RECORD COLD LOWS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH - 15TH...

BOSTON...... -3/1967 -  -3/1934 - -14/1943
HARTFORD.... -7/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943
PROVIDENCE.. -5/1967 -  -7/1979 - -14/1943
WORCESTER...-12/1967 - -11/1979 - -19/1943
BLUE HILL...-10/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ002>021-026.
RI...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...KJC/THOMPSON
MARINE...KJC/THOMPSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 112104
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
404 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT USHER IN A ANOTHER WAVE OF
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR TONIGHT. FRIDAY WILL SEE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASS TO OUR SOUTH WITH SOME SUN BUT HIGHS ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW LATE.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID COAST REGION WILL BRING
SNOW TO THE MID COAST AREA SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS WILL BRING
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
ANOTHER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
...LIKELY WITH A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT JUST CROSSING INTO WRN NH ATTM...AND WINDS WILL PICK
UP THRU THE EVENING WITH TEMPS PLUNGING. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS
WHERE SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL LINGER THRU THE
EVENING...BUT EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT LATE. HAVE ISSUED WIND CHILL
ADV FOR THE ZONES ALONG THE INTL BORDER AS WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL STAY UP AROUND 10-15 MPH AND WILL
PRODUCE WINDS CHILLS OF -20 TO -25. LOW WILL FALL TO AROUND -5 IN
THE N...TO AROUND 5-10 F IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH SLIDES S OF THE REGION...WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL
HAVE SUBSIDED QUITE A BIT...SO IT SHOULD BE A FAIR DAY...EXCEPT
FOR HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRI NIGHT WE WILL BE BETWEEN TWO APPROACHING SYSTEMS...NRN STREAM
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW TRACKING OUT OF ONTARIO INTO NRN
NEW ENGLAND AND COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING WELL SO OF CAPE COD. THESE
TWO SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT AND BRING THE THREAT OF SOME SNOW TO THE
REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF FRI NIGHT. POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH
MAY DEVELOP LATE AND COULD BRING A STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
MID-COAST BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THU
NIGHT...BUT STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS...AND MAY
OCCUR CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT THAN DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE A RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM. MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A TROUGH NEAR THE MID-COAST
AREA WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY WEST OF THE
TROUGH. AT THIS TIME...AM FORECASTING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR THE
MIDCOAST AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE TROUGH
IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...RESIDENTS IN THE MID COAST AREA SHOULD BE AWARE THAT
SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY EVENING...A BLAST OF COLD AIR
WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE -20
TO -35 DEGREE RANGE LEADING TO THE ISSUANCE OF WIND CHILL
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. THE COLD AIR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WITH SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE MONDAY AS THE COLD AIR MOVES
EAST AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND PATH OF
THIS STORM. HOWEVER...LATEST RUNS INDICATE THAT THE PRECIP WILL
START AS SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS MUCH...IF
NOT ALL...OF THE AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. CONSIDERING THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL FORECAST SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND RAIN OR SNOW
TUESDAY...WITH THE LATEST MODELS FORECASTING A CHANGE TO RAIN ALL
AREAS.

COLDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE STORM DEPARTS.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ONCE SHSN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECTING VFR
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI EVENING. NW WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 KTS AT HIS
TIME THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR IN SN LATE FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT
KRKD/KAUG AND KHIE.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW IN THE MID COAST AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STICKING WITH GALES IN THE WATERS S OF CASCO BAY
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT WILL PASS THE WATERS AROUND 5-6
PM AND WILL SEE A SURGE OF W-NW WINDS THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE SCA
LVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. THE RAPID FALL OF TEMPS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF MOD BLOWING SPRAY
L;ATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS WELL.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH FREEZING
SPRAY. GALES POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...JENSENIUS
AVIATION...CEMPA/JENSENIUS
MARINE...CEMPA/JENSENIUS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 112104
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
404 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT USHER IN A ANOTHER WAVE OF
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR TONIGHT. FRIDAY WILL SEE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASS TO OUR SOUTH WITH SOME SUN BUT HIGHS ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW LATE.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID COAST REGION WILL BRING
SNOW TO THE MID COAST AREA SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS WILL BRING
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
ANOTHER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
...LIKELY WITH A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT JUST CROSSING INTO WRN NH ATTM...AND WINDS WILL PICK
UP THRU THE EVENING WITH TEMPS PLUNGING. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS
WHERE SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL LINGER THRU THE
EVENING...BUT EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT LATE. HAVE ISSUED WIND CHILL
ADV FOR THE ZONES ALONG THE INTL BORDER AS WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL STAY UP AROUND 10-15 MPH AND WILL
PRODUCE WINDS CHILLS OF -20 TO -25. LOW WILL FALL TO AROUND -5 IN
THE N...TO AROUND 5-10 F IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH SLIDES S OF THE REGION...WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL
HAVE SUBSIDED QUITE A BIT...SO IT SHOULD BE A FAIR DAY...EXCEPT
FOR HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRI NIGHT WE WILL BE BETWEEN TWO APPROACHING SYSTEMS...NRN STREAM
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW TRACKING OUT OF ONTARIO INTO NRN
NEW ENGLAND AND COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING WELL SO OF CAPE COD. THESE
TWO SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT AND BRING THE THREAT OF SOME SNOW TO THE
REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF FRI NIGHT. POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH
MAY DEVELOP LATE AND COULD BRING A STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
MID-COAST BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THU
NIGHT...BUT STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS...AND MAY
OCCUR CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT THAN DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE A RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM. MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A TROUGH NEAR THE MID-COAST
AREA WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY WEST OF THE
TROUGH. AT THIS TIME...AM FORECASTING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR THE
MIDCOAST AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE TROUGH
IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...RESIDENTS IN THE MID COAST AREA SHOULD BE AWARE THAT
SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY EVENING...A BLAST OF COLD AIR
WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE -20
TO -35 DEGREE RANGE LEADING TO THE ISSUANCE OF WIND CHILL
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. THE COLD AIR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WITH SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE MONDAY AS THE COLD AIR MOVES
EAST AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND PATH OF
THIS STORM. HOWEVER...LATEST RUNS INDICATE THAT THE PRECIP WILL
START AS SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS MUCH...IF
NOT ALL...OF THE AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. CONSIDERING THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL FORECAST SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND RAIN OR SNOW
TUESDAY...WITH THE LATEST MODELS FORECASTING A CHANGE TO RAIN ALL
AREAS.

COLDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE STORM DEPARTS.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ONCE SHSN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECTING VFR
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI EVENING. NW WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 KTS AT HIS
TIME THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR IN SN LATE FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT
KRKD/KAUG AND KHIE.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW IN THE MID COAST AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STICKING WITH GALES IN THE WATERS S OF CASCO BAY
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT WILL PASS THE WATERS AROUND 5-6
PM AND WILL SEE A SURGE OF W-NW WINDS THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE SCA
LVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. THE RAPID FALL OF TEMPS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF MOD BLOWING SPRAY
L;ATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS WELL.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH FREEZING
SPRAY. GALES POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...JENSENIUS
AVIATION...CEMPA/JENSENIUS
MARINE...CEMPA/JENSENIUS




000
FXUS61 KBOX 112002
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
302 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT OM GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. AN OCEAN STORM WILL TRACK WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL DELIVER BITTERLY COLD WEATHER
THIS WEEKEND WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE MONDAY THEN A STORM WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW QUICKLY
CHANGING TO RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS MUCH MILDER AIR
MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
***WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND 10 BELOW ZERO LATE
 TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING***

SCT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SNE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DISSIPATE BY EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AS
GOOD MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES IN. STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON GUSTY NW
WINDS WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -20C TONIGHT...THEN WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS...EXCEPT TEENS CAPE/ISLANDS. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP
TO ZERO TO 10 BELOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF MID ATLC COAST WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO
THE GT LAKES. WITH DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE REGION IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A LOW
PROB OF A FEW OCEAN EFFECT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS OVER CAPE/ISLANDS
TOWARD EVENING WITH SW FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT YIELDING OCEAN
INDUCED CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG...BUT MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW
WHICH WILL LIMIT ACTIVITY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW
AND MID 20S...WITH UPPER TEENS HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
*** ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS ***

INTERESTING SET UP AS OCEAN STORM TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE BUT POTENT
MID LEVEL TROF/SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL INDUCE AN
INVERTED TROF WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS SE NEW ENG. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING MOISTURE AND AREA OF GOOD LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MODEST OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION...FOCUSED ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS FRI NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW. SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT LIKELY GIVEN STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND OCEAN INDUCED CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG YIELDING
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW. SNOW ACCUM OF 1-3 INCHES
EXPECTED WITH LOW RISK OF UP TO 4 INCHES. ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EXTEND ACROSS S COASTAL MA WITH MINOR
ACCUM POSSIBLE BUT MAIN FOCUS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE
FRI NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN NEW
ENG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
* MORE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY NEUTRALIZE TOWARD
NEXT WEEK AS WEEKEND SRN AND NRN STREAM PHASING ALLOWS FOR SOME
FLATTENING OF THE FLOW ACROSS THE NE CONUS. UNTIL THEN
HOWEVER...CONDUIT FOR COLD AIR...WITH VERY CYCLONICALLY CURVED
FLOW WILL YIELD A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN CULMINATING IN
POTENTIAL STORM FOR MID NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS FEATURE REMAINS
ELUSIVE GIVEN SEVERE TRACK DISCREPANCIES AMONG OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. THERE IS ENOUGH SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THAT A
BLEND OF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE WILL BE USED FOR THE BASELINE
THROUGH THE MID TERM. HOWEVER...WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECASTER/S
THINKING AND LEAN MORE HEAVILY ON ENSEMBLES FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...
VERY ROBUST ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA...FRI NIGHT AS ENERGY TRANSFERS FROM LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF
ONTARIO TO LOW PRES DEVELOPING S OF THE GULF OF MAINE INTERSECTION
WITH NOVA SCOTIA. WHILE THIS IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE FOR DIRECT IMPACT
ON SRN NEW ENGLAND A STRONG INVERTED TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE ADVISORY
TO WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER A VERY LOCALIZED AREA. CURRENT
ORIENTATION IS MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL MAINE. A FEW SHSN ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES...AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CAPE COD/ANN FOR OCEAN EFFECT GIVEN 25C OR GREATER
SST-H85 DELTA-T VALUES. WINDS HAVE MAINLY A WESTERLY
COMPONENT...SO THIS WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THEY COULD BE
SHOULD THE WIND ORIENT MORE TO THE N.

OTHERWISE...H92 TEMPS DROP FROM -12C TO -24C BY LATE SAT SUGGESTS
THAT TEMPS MAY HOLD OR EVEN DROP DURING THE DAY ON SAT. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ATTEMPT TO MELT THE WARM HEARTS OF
VALENTINES DAY. ENSEMBLES SHOW NEARLY 80 PERCENT PROBS OF H85
TEMPS BELOW -30C. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WHICH WILL ENHANCE NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. AMBIENT TEMPERATURES ALONE
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW 0F...BUT COMBINED WITH THIS
20-30 MPH BREEZE...SUSPECT 15-25 BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. WILL LIKELY NEED WIND CHILL
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. STILL COLD ON SUN AS
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS LEAVING WIND
CHILLS BELOW 0F. THE SECONDARY ARCTIC ENHANCEMENT WILL ALSO LEAD
TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS ALONG CAPE ANN/COD
AGAIN AND WILL SHIFT THE INVERTED TROF TO THE S. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS SNOWFALL.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE REGION WITH SLIGHT WARMING TREND. H92
TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR -12C. SO HIGHS WILL RISE CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS...MAINLY IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S. LESS OF A RISK FOR COLD
WIND CHILLS AS PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS.

TUE AND WED...
INTERESTING SETUP WITH SRN STREAM REGAINING CONTROL AND
DEVELOPING A LOW PRES WITH CONNECTION TO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AS GEFS MEAN IS OVER THE
BENCHMARK WHILE ECENS MEAN IS WELL INLAND. IN ANY CASE...A
POTENTIAL P-TYPE ISSUE STORM WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL QPF.
THE WEDGE OF COLD AIR LEFT OVER MAY LEAD TO SOME ICE DEVELOPMENT
DEPENDING ON THIS TRACK...OR EVEN JUST ALL RAIN/SNOW. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE AS IMPACTS COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL
IF ICE IS INVOLVED. FOR NOW...THE BLEND DOES HAVE A BIT OF ICE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THIS IS
LIKELY TO CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 00Z...SCT SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS CONFINED TO E
MA THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH SCT FLURRIES AND
BRIEF MVFR. PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARD EVENING. W/NW GUSTS TO
25-30KT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CIGS EVENING...THEN CLEARING. W/NW
GUSTS TO 20-30 KT IN THE EVENING...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT BUT
REMAINING GUSTY ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR
CAPE/ISLANDS AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION WITH SOME ACCUM
LIKELY. SCT SNOW SHOWERS MAY EXTEND INTO SE MA...OTHERWISE A MIX
OF VFR/MVFR CIGS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS LIKELY.
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS PARTICULARLY CAPE COD...CAPE ANN AND PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH SHORE.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START BUT LATE DAY DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION.  TIMING UNCERTAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT AND FRI...A PERIOD OF W/NW GALES AROUND 35 KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION. WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND DROP BELOW SCA FRI MORNING WITH LIGHT SW WINDS
DEVELOPING FRI AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OVER E
MA WATERS AND CAPE COD BAY TONIGHT SO FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE.

FRI NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA. SW WINDS BECOMING NW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF
SNOW.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
STRONG N-NW WINDS WILL LEAD TO GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AT TIMES
ALONG WITH MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OFFSHORE. THESE WINDS DISSIPATE SOME ON SUN...BUT ITS LIKELY SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL FOLLOW.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA... BUT SEAS BUILD AS SOME
SORT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. RECORD COLD
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. HERE ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH...

BOSTON.......15/1979 - 14/1916
HARTFORD.....11/1979 - 11/1979
PROVIDENCE...10/1979 - 10/1979
WORCESTER.... 8/1899 -  7/1979
BLUE HILL.... 9/1899 - 10/1979

RECORD COLD LOWS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH - 15TH...

BOSTON...... -3/1967 -  -3/1934 - -14/1943
HARTFORD.... -7/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943
PROVIDENCE.. -5/1967 -  -7/1979 - -14/1943
WORCESTER...-12/1967 - -11/1979 - -19/1943
BLUE HILL...-10/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 111754
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1254 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT TODAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH A
FEW LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS.  BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1250 PM UPDATE...
MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FOCUSED ACROSS E MA
WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GREATER AS DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE
TEENS. FURTHER W...MUCH DRIER AIR HAS OVERSPREAD W NEW ENG WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR ZERO. RADAR
SHOWS SCT LIGHT REFLECTIVITY MOVING INTO W NEW ENG BUT LARGE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LIMITING THIS TO JUST SCT FLURRIES. AS THIS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO E NEW ENG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL END. STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPS. WIND GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH DEVELOPING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
***WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND 10 BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT
  INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING***

TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH 850T FALLING TO
NEAR -20C. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO AROUND 10 ABOVE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP
TO BETWEEN 0 AND 10 BELOW ZERO.

FRIDAY...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS OUT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT.  HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY
REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER
THAN THIS AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...BUT MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY EVENING WITH SOME MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION.  OF MORE INTEREST...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RARE OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT...BUT WITH 850T STILL AROUND -14C.  THIS
YIELDS 850/SST DIFFERENTIAL OF AROUND 22C AND GENERATES BETWEEN 400
AND 500 J/KG OF OCEAN INDUCED CAPE.  MOST OUR MESO MODELS ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST BY 00Z
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
* MORE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY NEUTRALIZE TOWARD
NEXT WEEK AS WEEKEND SRN AND NRN STREAM PHASING ALLOWS FOR SOME
FLATTENING OF THE FLOW ACROSS THE NE CONUS. UNTIL THEN
HOWEVER...CONDUIT FOR COLD AIR...WITH VERY CYCLONICALLY CURVED
FLOW WILL YIELD A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN CULMINATING IN
POTENTIAL STORM FOR MID NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS FEATURE REMAINS
ELUSIVE GIVEN SEVERE TRACK DISCREPANCIES AMONG OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. THERE IS ENOUGH SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THAT A
BLEND OF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE WILL BE USED FOR THE BASELINE
THROUGH THE MID TERM. HOWEVER...WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECASTER/S
THINKING AND LEAN MORE HEAVILY ON ENSEMBLES FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...
VERY ROBUST ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA...FRI NIGHT AS ENERGY TRANSFERS FROM LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF
ONTARIO TO LOW PRES DEVELOPING S OF THE GULF OF MAINE INTERSECTION
WITH NOVA SCOTIA. WHILE THIS IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE FOR DIRECT IMPACT
ON SRN NEW ENGLAND A STRONG INVERTED TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE ADVISORY
TO WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER A VERY LOCALIZED AREA. CURRENT
ORIENTATION IS MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL MAINE. A FEW SHSN ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES...AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CAPE COD/ANN FOR OCEAN EFFECT GIVEN 25C OR GREATER
SST-H85 DELTA-T VALUES. WINDS HAVE MAINLY A WESTERLY
COMPONENT...SO THIS WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THEY COULD BE
SHOULD THE WIND ORIENT MORE TO THE N.

OTHERWISE...H92 TEMPS DROP FROM -12C TO -24C BY LATE SAT SUGGESTS
THAT TEMPS MAY HOLD OR EVEN DROP DURING THE DAY ON SAT. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ATTEMPT TO MELT THE WARM HEARTS OF
VALENTINES DAY. ENSEMBLES SHOW NEARLY 80 PERCENT PROBS OF H85
TEMPS BELOW -30C. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WHICH WILL ENHANCE NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. AMBIENT TEMPERATURES ALONE
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW 0F...BUT COMBINED WITH THIS
20-30 MPH BREEZE...SUSPECT 15-25 BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. WILL LIKELY NEED WIND CHILL
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. STILL COLD ON SUN AS
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS LEAVING WIND
CHILLS BELOW 0F. THE SECONDARY ARCTIC ENHANCEMENT WILL ALSO LEAD
TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS ALONG CAPE ANN/COD
AGAIN AND WILL SHIFT THE INVERTED TROF TO THE S. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS SNOWFALL.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE REGION WITH SLIGHT WARMING TREND. H92
TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR -12C. SO HIGHS WILL RISE CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS...MAINLY IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S. LESS OF A RISK FOR COLD
WIND CHILLS AS PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS.

TUE AND WED...
INTERESTING SETUP WITH SRN STREAM REGAINING CONTROL AND
DEVELOPING A LOW PRES WITH CONNECTION TO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AS GEFS MEAN IS OVER THE
BENCHMARK WHILE ECENS MEAN IS WELL INLAND. IN ANY CASE...A
POTENTIAL P-TYPE ISSUE STORM WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL QPF.
THE WEDGE OF COLD AIR LEFT OVER MAY LEAD TO SOME ICE DEVELOPMENT
DEPENDING ON THIS TRACK...OR EVEN JUST ALL RAIN/SNOW. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE AS IMPACTS COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL
IF ICE IS INVOLVED. FOR NOW...THE BLEND DOES HAVE A BIT OF ICE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THIS IS
LIKELY TO CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 00Z...SCT SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS CONFINED TO E
MA THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH SCT FLURRIES AND
BRIEF MVFR. PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARD EVENING. W/NW GUSTS TO
25-30KT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CIGS EVENING...THEN CLEARING. W/NW
GUSTS TO 20-30 KT IN THE EVENING...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT BUT
REMAINING GUSTY ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR
CAPE/ISLANDS AS SNOW SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH SOME
ACCUM LIKELY. SCT SNOW SHOWERS MAY EXTEND INTO SE MA...OTHERWISE
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS LIKELY.
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS PARTICULARLY CAPE COD...CAPE ANN AND PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH SHORE.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START BUT LATE DAY DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION.  TIMING UNCERTAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT OVER THE OPEN WATERS.  THIS A RESULT OF VERY COLD AIR WITH
850T DROPPING TO NEAR -20C PROMOTING EXCELLENT MIXING OVER THE
RELATIVELY MILD OCEAN. GALE WARNINGS ALL WATERS EXCEPT STRONG SCA
HEADLINES BOSTON HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY.  FINALLY...ADVISORY FOR
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY FOR EASTERN MA WATERS/CAPE COD BAY TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BUT REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.  WINDS/SEAS SHOULD FINALLY DROP BELOW
SCA LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER
OVERNIGHT.

SAT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
STRONG N-NW WINDS WILL LEAD TO GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AT TIMES
ALONG WITH MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OFFSHORE. THESE WINDS DISSIPATE SOME ON SUN...BUT ITS LIKELY SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL FOLLOW.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA... BUT SEAS BUILD AS SOME
SORT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. RECORD COLD
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. HERE ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH...

BOSTON.......15/1979 - 14/1916
HARTFORD.....11/1979 - 11/1979
PROVIDENCE...10/1979 - 10/1979
WORCESTER.... 8/1899 -  7/1979
BLUE HILL.... 9/1899 - 10/1979

RECORD COLD LOWS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH - 15TH...

BOSTON...... -3/1967 -  -3/1934 - -14/1943
HARTFORD.... -7/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943
PROVIDENCE.. -5/1967 -  -7/1979 - -14/1943
WORCESTER...-12/1967 - -11/1979 - -19/1943
BLUE HILL...-10/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 111754
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1254 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT TODAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH A
FEW LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS.  BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1250 PM UPDATE...
MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FOCUSED ACROSS E MA
WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GREATER AS DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE
TEENS. FURTHER W...MUCH DRIER AIR HAS OVERSPREAD W NEW ENG WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR ZERO. RADAR
SHOWS SCT LIGHT REFLECTIVITY MOVING INTO W NEW ENG BUT LARGE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LIMITING THIS TO JUST SCT FLURRIES. AS THIS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO E NEW ENG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL END. STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPS. WIND GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH DEVELOPING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
***WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND 10 BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT
  INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING***

TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH 850T FALLING TO
NEAR -20C. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO AROUND 10 ABOVE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP
TO BETWEEN 0 AND 10 BELOW ZERO.

FRIDAY...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS OUT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT.  HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY
REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER
THAN THIS AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...BUT MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY EVENING WITH SOME MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION.  OF MORE INTEREST...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RARE OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT...BUT WITH 850T STILL AROUND -14C.  THIS
YIELDS 850/SST DIFFERENTIAL OF AROUND 22C AND GENERATES BETWEEN 400
AND 500 J/KG OF OCEAN INDUCED CAPE.  MOST OUR MESO MODELS ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST BY 00Z
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
* MORE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY NEUTRALIZE TOWARD
NEXT WEEK AS WEEKEND SRN AND NRN STREAM PHASING ALLOWS FOR SOME
FLATTENING OF THE FLOW ACROSS THE NE CONUS. UNTIL THEN
HOWEVER...CONDUIT FOR COLD AIR...WITH VERY CYCLONICALLY CURVED
FLOW WILL YIELD A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN CULMINATING IN
POTENTIAL STORM FOR MID NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS FEATURE REMAINS
ELUSIVE GIVEN SEVERE TRACK DISCREPANCIES AMONG OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. THERE IS ENOUGH SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THAT A
BLEND OF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE WILL BE USED FOR THE BASELINE
THROUGH THE MID TERM. HOWEVER...WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECASTER/S
THINKING AND LEAN MORE HEAVILY ON ENSEMBLES FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...
VERY ROBUST ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA...FRI NIGHT AS ENERGY TRANSFERS FROM LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF
ONTARIO TO LOW PRES DEVELOPING S OF THE GULF OF MAINE INTERSECTION
WITH NOVA SCOTIA. WHILE THIS IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE FOR DIRECT IMPACT
ON SRN NEW ENGLAND A STRONG INVERTED TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE ADVISORY
TO WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER A VERY LOCALIZED AREA. CURRENT
ORIENTATION IS MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL MAINE. A FEW SHSN ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES...AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CAPE COD/ANN FOR OCEAN EFFECT GIVEN 25C OR GREATER
SST-H85 DELTA-T VALUES. WINDS HAVE MAINLY A WESTERLY
COMPONENT...SO THIS WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THEY COULD BE
SHOULD THE WIND ORIENT MORE TO THE N.

OTHERWISE...H92 TEMPS DROP FROM -12C TO -24C BY LATE SAT SUGGESTS
THAT TEMPS MAY HOLD OR EVEN DROP DURING THE DAY ON SAT. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ATTEMPT TO MELT THE WARM HEARTS OF
VALENTINES DAY. ENSEMBLES SHOW NEARLY 80 PERCENT PROBS OF H85
TEMPS BELOW -30C. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WHICH WILL ENHANCE NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. AMBIENT TEMPERATURES ALONE
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW 0F...BUT COMBINED WITH THIS
20-30 MPH BREEZE...SUSPECT 15-25 BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. WILL LIKELY NEED WIND CHILL
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. STILL COLD ON SUN AS
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS LEAVING WIND
CHILLS BELOW 0F. THE SECONDARY ARCTIC ENHANCEMENT WILL ALSO LEAD
TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS ALONG CAPE ANN/COD
AGAIN AND WILL SHIFT THE INVERTED TROF TO THE S. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS SNOWFALL.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE REGION WITH SLIGHT WARMING TREND. H92
TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR -12C. SO HIGHS WILL RISE CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS...MAINLY IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S. LESS OF A RISK FOR COLD
WIND CHILLS AS PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS.

TUE AND WED...
INTERESTING SETUP WITH SRN STREAM REGAINING CONTROL AND
DEVELOPING A LOW PRES WITH CONNECTION TO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AS GEFS MEAN IS OVER THE
BENCHMARK WHILE ECENS MEAN IS WELL INLAND. IN ANY CASE...A
POTENTIAL P-TYPE ISSUE STORM WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL QPF.
THE WEDGE OF COLD AIR LEFT OVER MAY LEAD TO SOME ICE DEVELOPMENT
DEPENDING ON THIS TRACK...OR EVEN JUST ALL RAIN/SNOW. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE AS IMPACTS COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL
IF ICE IS INVOLVED. FOR NOW...THE BLEND DOES HAVE A BIT OF ICE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THIS IS
LIKELY TO CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 00Z...SCT SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS CONFINED TO E
MA THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH SCT FLURRIES AND
BRIEF MVFR. PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARD EVENING. W/NW GUSTS TO
25-30KT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CIGS EVENING...THEN CLEARING. W/NW
GUSTS TO 20-30 KT IN THE EVENING...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT BUT
REMAINING GUSTY ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR
CAPE/ISLANDS AS SNOW SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH SOME
ACCUM LIKELY. SCT SNOW SHOWERS MAY EXTEND INTO SE MA...OTHERWISE
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS LIKELY.
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS PARTICULARLY CAPE COD...CAPE ANN AND PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH SHORE.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START BUT LATE DAY DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION.  TIMING UNCERTAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT OVER THE OPEN WATERS.  THIS A RESULT OF VERY COLD AIR WITH
850T DROPPING TO NEAR -20C PROMOTING EXCELLENT MIXING OVER THE
RELATIVELY MILD OCEAN. GALE WARNINGS ALL WATERS EXCEPT STRONG SCA
HEADLINES BOSTON HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY.  FINALLY...ADVISORY FOR
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY FOR EASTERN MA WATERS/CAPE COD BAY TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BUT REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.  WINDS/SEAS SHOULD FINALLY DROP BELOW
SCA LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER
OVERNIGHT.

SAT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
STRONG N-NW WINDS WILL LEAD TO GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AT TIMES
ALONG WITH MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OFFSHORE. THESE WINDS DISSIPATE SOME ON SUN...BUT ITS LIKELY SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL FOLLOW.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA... BUT SEAS BUILD AS SOME
SORT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. RECORD COLD
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. HERE ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH...

BOSTON.......15/1979 - 14/1916
HARTFORD.....11/1979 - 11/1979
PROVIDENCE...10/1979 - 10/1979
WORCESTER.... 8/1899 -  7/1979
BLUE HILL.... 9/1899 - 10/1979

RECORD COLD LOWS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH - 15TH...

BOSTON...... -3/1967 -  -3/1934 - -14/1943
HARTFORD.... -7/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943
PROVIDENCE.. -5/1967 -  -7/1979 - -14/1943
WORCESTER...-12/1967 - -11/1979 - -19/1943
BLUE HILL...-10/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 111444
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
944 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG
COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD...COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS...THE
WIND CHILLS WILL BECOME DANGEROUS FOR A TIME THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
935 AM...OTHER THAN SOME CHANGES IN THE VERY NEAR TERM TERM BASED
ON LATEST OBS...DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO POPS THOUGH THE
AFTERNOON TODAY...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT THAN PREV
FORECAST. BASED ON LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS...INCLUDING LATEST
HRRR/RAP/12Z NAM HAVE FOCUSED POPS A LITTLE BETTER ACROSS SRN NH
AND COASTAL ME. WENT WITH SCT COVERAGE...AS ITS LIKELY SOME SHSN
WILL FORM AC THE FRONT MOVES THRU...BUT NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE ONE.
SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD APPROACH SQUALLS AT TIMES...GIVEN STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND PARTICULAR GOOD HEIGHT FALLS AS THE 500MB TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. NOT CONVINCED THIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD YET, BUT
CERTAINLY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SECONDARY COLD FNT IS ALREADY PUSHING
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE W. AHEAD OF IT SOME SN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND ALONG IT ANY SN SHOWER MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY. LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP DURING THE DAY...AND COULD SUPPORT
LOCALIZED AREAS OF STRONG LIFT EVEN IF ONLY IN THE LOWEST COUPLE
THOUSAND FEET. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS SRN ZONES FOR
THAT...AND THE HIGHEST POP WAS PLACED IN THESE AREAS. IF THE HEAVY
SN SHOWERS OR SQUALLS DEVELOP IN THIS MANNER...AN INCREASE IN POP
IS LIKELY AND SPECIAL WX STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH VERY WEAK
S/WV RIDGING SET TO CROSS THE AREA. THE CAA TODAY WILL HAVE SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME CHILLY TEMPS RELATIVE TO THE WINTER SO FAR.
READINGS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN THE N...WITH SINGLE DIGITS DOWN
TO THE COAST. RECOVERY WILL BE TOUGH GOING FRI...WITH TEENS AND
20S DOING IT FOR HIGH TEMPS.

WILL KEEP AN EYE TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY...AS LOBE OF
POLAR VORTEX PINWHEELS DOWN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. AHEAD OF IT SN
SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS RAPIDLY COOLING AIR ALOFT
CREATES AN UNSTABLE COLUMN. THOUGH THE BULK OF THE SNWFL SHOULD BE
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MAINE
BY SATURDAY MORNING. ARCTIC FRONT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL KICK
OFF SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS AS IT SWINGS IN FROM THE WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT AN AREA OF STEADIER SNOW TO DEVELOP GENERALLY
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN DOWNEAST AND MIDCOAST AREAS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY AN
INCH OR LESS BUT MIDCOAST AREAS MAY SEE SEVERAL INCHES BY
SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE
NUMBERS NORTH AND LOWER TEENS SOUTH.

INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER DOWNEAST MAINE ON SATURDAY
AND WILL LIKELY BACK SNOWFALL WEST INTO WESTERN MAINE AND
POSSIBLY EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY. GFS DEPOSITING AN INCH
OR MORE OF QPF OVER DOWNEAST SECTIONS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING BUT
MAINLY IN CARIBOU`S AREA. MAY NEED ADVISORIES OR POSSIBLY WARNINGS
FOR FAR EASTERN MID COAST ZONES WHERE A GOOD FLUFF FACTOR WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO POSSIBLY 6 INCHES. AT
THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE WESTERN MAINE WILL ESCAPE THE WORST OF THIS
ONE WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY. EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON PRODUCING A LOT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE
LIGHT POWDERY SNOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE
NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

EXPECT SNOW TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY
PIVOTS OVER DOWNEAST MAINE...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND
MIDCOAST LOCATIONS WHERE SEVERAL MORE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIGHT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT PRODUCING A LOT BLOWING AND DRIFTING AND
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW NORTH
AND 5 TO 10 BELOW SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN STRONG DURING THE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT THIS WILL HARDLY
BUDGE TEMPS WITH READINGS BARELY CLIMBING ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTH
AND REMAINING IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT PRODUCING
ANOTHER VERY FRIGID  NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO
SOUTH TO 10 BELOW NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING
WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING AHEAD
OF NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING AND
POSSIBLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO
GET BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID TEENS TO
LOWER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
MODELS STILL CONVERGING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP
THE EAST COAST. SEEING THE GFS GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARD THE
WARMER ECMWF FORECAST FROM LAST NIGHT...BRINGING LOW PRESSURE
FARTHER WEST. THIS WOULD LIKELY START PRECIP AS A MIX AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ON TUESDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A MIX POSSIBLY HANGING ON
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT IN FAR WESTERN ZONES.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO PULL AWAY ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW DELIVERING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ONE OVER THE MIDCOAST ASSOCIATED WITH GRADUALLY LIFTING
FG/STRATUS...AND ANOTHER IN THE MTNS OF NRN NH. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED. EXCEPTION WILL BE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
SECONDARY COLD FNT. SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FNT...WITH LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE FNT VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT HIE...AND GUSTY NWLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SEAS ARE BUILDING AGAIN AS FIRST COLD FNT IS CROSSING
THE WATERS. A STRONGER SECONDARY FNT CROSSES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING GALES TO SRN WATERS...AND STRONG SCA CONDITIONS N
OF PORTLAND. AS TEMPS FALL OVERNIGHT AND WINDS/SEAS REMAIN
UP...FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE LIKELY AND AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL WATERS INTO FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT
LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND
RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AVIATION...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH
MARINE...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 111234 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
734 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG
COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD...COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS...THE
WIND CHILLS WILL BECOME DANGEROUS FOR A TIME THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FNT HAS CROSSED THE AREA THIS
MORNING...CLEARING OUT SOME OF THE RELATIVELY MOIST AIR THAT HAD
BEEN IN PLACE. PATCHY FREEZING FOG...OR DEPOSITION ON THE ROADS
OUT THERE MAY LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS THRU MORNING AS A RESULT.

A SECONDARY COLD FNT IS ALREADY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE
W. AHEAD OF IT SOME SN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND ALONG IT ANY
SN SHOWER MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY. LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP
DURING THE DAY...AND COULD SUPPORT LOCALIZED AREAS OF STRONG LIFT
EVEN IF ONLY IN THE LOWEST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET. HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE FAVORS SRN ZONES FOR THAT...AND THE HIGHEST POP WAS
PLACED IN THESE AREAS. IF THE HEAVY SN SHOWERS OR SQUALLS DEVELOP
IN THIS MANNER...AN INCREASE IN POP IS LIKELY AND SPECIAL WX
STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH VERY WEAK
S/WV RIDGING SET TO CROSS THE AREA. THE CAA TODAY WILL HAVE SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME CHILLY TEMPS RELATIVE TO THE WINTER SO FAR.
READINGS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN THE N...WITH SINGLE DIGITS DOWN
TO THE COAST. RECOVERY WILL BE TOUGH GOING FRI...WITH TEENS AND
20S DOING IT FOR HIGH TEMPS.

WILL KEEP AN EYE TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY...AS LOBE OF
POLAR VORTEX PINWHEELS DOWN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. AHEAD OF IT SN
SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS RAPIDLY COOLING AIR ALOFT
CREATES AN UNSTABLE COLUMN. THOUGH THE BULK OF THE SNWFL SHOULD BE
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MAINE
BY SATURDAY MORNING. ARCTIC FRONT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL KICK
OFF SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS AS IT SWINGS IN FROM THE WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT AN AREA OF STEADIER SNOW TO DEVELOP GENERALLY
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN DOWNEAST AND MIDCOAST AREAS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY AN
INCH OR LESS BUT MIDCOAST AREAS MAY SEE SEVERAL INCHES BY
SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE
NUMBERS NORTH AND LOWER TEENS SOUTH.

INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER DOWNEAST MAINE ON SATURDAY
AND WILL LIKELY BACK SNOWFALL WEST INTO WESTERN MAINE AND
POSSIBLY EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY. GFS DEPOSITING AN INCH
OR MORE OF QPF OVER DOWNEAST SECTIONS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING BUT
MAINLY IN CARIBOU`S AREA. MAY NEED ADVISORIES OR POSSIBLY WARNINGS
FOR FAR EASTERN MID COAST ZONES WHERE A GOOD FLUFF FACTOR WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO POSSIBLY 6 INCHES. AT
THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE WESTERN MAINE WILL ESCAPE THE WORST OF THIS
ONE WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY. EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON PRODUCING A LOT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE
LIGHT POWDERY SNOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE
NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

EXPECT SNOW TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY
PIVOTS OVER DOWNEAST MAINE...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND
MIDCOAST LOCATIONS WHERE SEVERAL MORE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIGHT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT PRODUCING A LOT BLOWING AND DRIFTING AND
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW NORTH
AND 5 TO 10 BELOW SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN STRONG DURING THE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT THIS WILL HARDLY
BUDGE TEMPS WITH READINGS BARELY CLIMBING ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTH
AND REMAINING IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT PRODUCING
ANOTHER VERY FRIGID  NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO
SOUTH TO 10 BELOW NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING
WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING AHEAD
OF NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING AND
POSSIBLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO
GET BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID TEENS TO
LOWER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
MODELS STILL CONVERGING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP
THE EAST COAST. SEEING THE GFS GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARD THE
WARMER ECMWF FORECAST FROM LAST NIGHT...BRINGING LOW PRESSURE
FARTHER WEST. THIS WOULD LIKELY START PRECIP AS A MIX AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ON TUESDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A MIX POSSIBLY HANGING ON
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT IN FAR WESTERN ZONES.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO PULL AWAY ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW DELIVERING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ONE OVER THE MIDCOAST ASSOCIATED WITH GRADUALLY LIFTING
FG/STRATUS...AND ANOTHER IN THE MTNS OF NRN NH. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED. EXCEPTION WILL BE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
SECONDARY COLD FNT. SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FNT...WITH LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE FNT VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT HIE...AND GUSTY NWLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SEAS ARE BUILDING AGAIN AS FIRST COLD FNT IS CROSSING
THE WATERS. A STRONGER SECONDARY FNT CROSSES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING GALES TO SRN WATERS...AND STRONG SCA CONDITIONS N
OF PORTLAND. AS TEMPS FALL OVERNIGHT AND WINDS/SEAS REMAIN
UP...FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE LIKELY AND AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL WATERS INTO FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT
LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND
RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AVIATION...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH
MARINE...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KGYX 111234 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
734 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG
COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD...COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS...THE
WIND CHILLS WILL BECOME DANGEROUS FOR A TIME THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FNT HAS CROSSED THE AREA THIS
MORNING...CLEARING OUT SOME OF THE RELATIVELY MOIST AIR THAT HAD
BEEN IN PLACE. PATCHY FREEZING FOG...OR DEPOSITION ON THE ROADS
OUT THERE MAY LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS THRU MORNING AS A RESULT.

A SECONDARY COLD FNT IS ALREADY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE
W. AHEAD OF IT SOME SN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND ALONG IT ANY
SN SHOWER MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY. LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP
DURING THE DAY...AND COULD SUPPORT LOCALIZED AREAS OF STRONG LIFT
EVEN IF ONLY IN THE LOWEST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET. HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE FAVORS SRN ZONES FOR THAT...AND THE HIGHEST POP WAS
PLACED IN THESE AREAS. IF THE HEAVY SN SHOWERS OR SQUALLS DEVELOP
IN THIS MANNER...AN INCREASE IN POP IS LIKELY AND SPECIAL WX
STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH VERY WEAK
S/WV RIDGING SET TO CROSS THE AREA. THE CAA TODAY WILL HAVE SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME CHILLY TEMPS RELATIVE TO THE WINTER SO FAR.
READINGS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN THE N...WITH SINGLE DIGITS DOWN
TO THE COAST. RECOVERY WILL BE TOUGH GOING FRI...WITH TEENS AND
20S DOING IT FOR HIGH TEMPS.

WILL KEEP AN EYE TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY...AS LOBE OF
POLAR VORTEX PINWHEELS DOWN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. AHEAD OF IT SN
SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS RAPIDLY COOLING AIR ALOFT
CREATES AN UNSTABLE COLUMN. THOUGH THE BULK OF THE SNWFL SHOULD BE
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MAINE
BY SATURDAY MORNING. ARCTIC FRONT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL KICK
OFF SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS AS IT SWINGS IN FROM THE WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT AN AREA OF STEADIER SNOW TO DEVELOP GENERALLY
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN DOWNEAST AND MIDCOAST AREAS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY AN
INCH OR LESS BUT MIDCOAST AREAS MAY SEE SEVERAL INCHES BY
SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE
NUMBERS NORTH AND LOWER TEENS SOUTH.

INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER DOWNEAST MAINE ON SATURDAY
AND WILL LIKELY BACK SNOWFALL WEST INTO WESTERN MAINE AND
POSSIBLY EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY. GFS DEPOSITING AN INCH
OR MORE OF QPF OVER DOWNEAST SECTIONS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING BUT
MAINLY IN CARIBOU`S AREA. MAY NEED ADVISORIES OR POSSIBLY WARNINGS
FOR FAR EASTERN MID COAST ZONES WHERE A GOOD FLUFF FACTOR WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO POSSIBLY 6 INCHES. AT
THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE WESTERN MAINE WILL ESCAPE THE WORST OF THIS
ONE WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY. EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON PRODUCING A LOT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE
LIGHT POWDERY SNOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE
NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

EXPECT SNOW TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY
PIVOTS OVER DOWNEAST MAINE...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND
MIDCOAST LOCATIONS WHERE SEVERAL MORE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIGHT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT PRODUCING A LOT BLOWING AND DRIFTING AND
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW NORTH
AND 5 TO 10 BELOW SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN STRONG DURING THE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT THIS WILL HARDLY
BUDGE TEMPS WITH READINGS BARELY CLIMBING ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTH
AND REMAINING IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT PRODUCING
ANOTHER VERY FRIGID  NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO
SOUTH TO 10 BELOW NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING
WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING AHEAD
OF NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING AND
POSSIBLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO
GET BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID TEENS TO
LOWER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
MODELS STILL CONVERGING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP
THE EAST COAST. SEEING THE GFS GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARD THE
WARMER ECMWF FORECAST FROM LAST NIGHT...BRINGING LOW PRESSURE
FARTHER WEST. THIS WOULD LIKELY START PRECIP AS A MIX AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ON TUESDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A MIX POSSIBLY HANGING ON
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT IN FAR WESTERN ZONES.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO PULL AWAY ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW DELIVERING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ONE OVER THE MIDCOAST ASSOCIATED WITH GRADUALLY LIFTING
FG/STRATUS...AND ANOTHER IN THE MTNS OF NRN NH. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED. EXCEPTION WILL BE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
SECONDARY COLD FNT. SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FNT...WITH LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE FNT VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT HIE...AND GUSTY NWLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SEAS ARE BUILDING AGAIN AS FIRST COLD FNT IS CROSSING
THE WATERS. A STRONGER SECONDARY FNT CROSSES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING GALES TO SRN WATERS...AND STRONG SCA CONDITIONS N
OF PORTLAND. AS TEMPS FALL OVERNIGHT AND WINDS/SEAS REMAIN
UP...FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE LIKELY AND AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL WATERS INTO FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT
LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND
RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AVIATION...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH
MARINE...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KBOX 111200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT TODAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH A
FEW LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS.  BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH A FEW LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW
  SQUALLS EXPECTED TODAY***

7 AM UPDATE...
MODEST VORT ADVECTION THIS MORNING IS LEADING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHALLOW AND LIGHT SN ACROSS CT AND THE LOWER CT VALLEY OF MA.
MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THIS FEATURE SO POPS ARE MAINLY
MANUALLY GENERATED THIS MORNING...BUT BLENDED INTO THE NAM THIS
AFTERNOON. THE REASON FOR THIS BLEND IS IT APPEARS TO BE CAPTURING
THE INSTABILITY INCREASE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGHLIGHTS
THE SNOW SQUALL RISK NICELY. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE FORECAST
PARAMETERS ARE ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS WILL
ALLOW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH MID MORNING.  THERE ARE ALSO SEVERAL PARAMETERS INDICATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS.  THESE INCLUDE 0
TO 3 KM LAPSE RATES INCREASING TO NEAR 9C/KM...SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.  BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY
IS AREAL COVERAGE OF THE ACTIVITY WHICH WILL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE LOWEST 0-2KM OF THE ATMOSPHERE THAN THE NAM...PROBABLY
WHY IT SHOWS MORE QPF.

WITH ALL THAT SAID...EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE
RISK OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVIER SQUALLS.  MAIN CONCERN IS THAT ANY
LOCALIZED SQUALLS MAY RESULT IN ROADS QUICKLY BE COME SNOW
COVERED/SLIPPERY ALONG WITH BRIEF POOR VISIBILITY. UNLIKE YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.  HIGHS WILL PRETTY
MUCH HOLD IN THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS TODAY...SO ANY SNOW SHOWER OF
MODERATE INTENSITY WILL QUICKLY STICK TO ROADWAYS EVEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE A COATING TO LESS
THAN 1 INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED 1 TO
2 INCH AMOUNTS.

IT WILL BECOME QUITE BLUSTERY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
***WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND 10 BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT
  INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING***

TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH 850T FALLING TO
NEAR -20C. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO AROUND 10 ABOVE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP
TO BETWEEN 0 AND 10 BELOW ZERO.

FRIDAY...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS OUT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT.  HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY
REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER
THAN THIS AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...BUT MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY EVENING WITH SOME MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION.  OF MORE INTEREST...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RARE OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT...BUT WITH 850T STILL AROUND -14C.  THIS
YIELDS 850/SST DIFFERENTIAL OF AROUND 22C AND GENERATES BETWEEN 400
AND 500 J/KG OF OCEAN INDUCED CAPE.  MOST OUR MESO MODELS ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST BY 00Z
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
* MORE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY NEUTRALIZE TOWARD
NEXT WEEK AS WEEKEND SRN AND NRN STREAM PHASING ALLOWS FOR SOME
FLATTENING OF THE FLOW ACROSS THE NE CONUS. UNTIL THEN
HOWEVER...CONDUIT FOR COLD AIR...WITH VERY CYCLONICALLY CURVED
FLOW WILL YIELD A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN CULMINATING IN
POTENTIAL STORM FOR MID NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS FEATURE REMAINS
ELUSIVE GIVEN SEVERE TRACK DISCREPANCIES AMONG OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. THERE IS ENOUGH SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THAT A
BLEND OF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE WILL BE USED FOR THE BASELINE
THROUGH THE MID TERM. HOWEVER...WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECASTER/S
THINKING AND LEAN MORE HEAVILY ON ENSEMBLES FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...
VERY ROBUST ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA...FRI NIGHT AS ENERGY TRANSFERS FROM LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF
ONTARIO TO LOW PRES DEVELOPING S OF THE GULF OF MAINE INTERSECTION
WITH NOVA SCOTIA. WHILE THIS IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE FOR DIRECT IMPACT
ON SRN NEW ENGLAND A STRONG INVERTED TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE ADVISORY
TO WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER A VERY LOCALIZED AREA. CURRENT
ORIENTATION IS MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL MAINE. A FEW SHSN ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES...AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CAPE COD/ANN FOR OCEAN EFFECT GIVEN 25C OR GREATER
SST-H85 DELTA-T VALUES. WINDS HAVE MAINLY A WESTERLY
COMPONENT...SO THIS WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THEY COULD BE
SHOULD THE WIND ORIENT MORE TO THE N.

OTHERWISE...H92 TEMPS DROP FROM -12C TO -24C BY LATE SAT SUGGESTS
THAT TEMPS MAY HOLD OR EVEN DROP DURING THE DAY ON SAT. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ATTEMPT TO MELT THE WARM HEARTS OF
VALENTINES DAY. ENSEMBLES SHOW NEARLY 80 PERCENT PROBS OF H85
TEMPS BELOW -30C. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WHICH WILL ENHANCE NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. AMBIENT TEMPERATURES ALONE
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW 0F...BUT COMBINED WITH THIS
20-30 MPH BREEZE...SUSPECT 15-25 BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. WILL LIKELY NEED WIND CHILL
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. STILL COLD ON SUN AS
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS LEAVING WIND
CHILLS BELOW 0F. THE SECONDARY ARCTIC ENHANCEMENT WILL ALSO LEAD
TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS ALONG CAPE ANN/COD
AGAIN AND WILL SHIFT THE INVERTED TROF TO THE S. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS SNOWFALL.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE REGION WITH SLIGHT WARMING TREND. H92
TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR -12C. SO HIGHS WILL RISE CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS...MAINLY IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S. LESS OF A RISK FOR COLD
WIND CHILLS AS PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS.

TUE AND WED...
INTERESTING SETUP WITH SRN STREAM REGAINING CONTROL AND
DEVELOPING A LOW PRES WITH CONNECTION TO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AS GEFS MEAN IS OVER THE
BENCHMARK WHILE ECENS MEAN IS WELL INLAND. IN ANY CASE...A
POTENTIAL P-TYPE ISSUE STORM WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL QPF.
THE WEDGE OF COLD AIR LEFT OVER MAY LEAD TO SOME ICE DEVELOPMENT
DEPENDING ON THIS TRACK...OR EVEN JUST ALL RAIN/SNOW. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE AS IMPACTS COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL
IF ICE IS INVOLVED. FOR NOW...THE BLEND DOES HAVE A BIT OF ICE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THIS IS
LIKELY TO CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING
OF ANY SHSN THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTSIDE OF SOME LIGHT SN IN THE CT VALLEY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING. THEN FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE AN ONGOING RISK FOR
SHSN...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS. THIS RISK DIMINISHES THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...WIND GUSTS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE W...WITH
20-30KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS COME
TO AN END THIS EVENING.  OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MARGINAL MVFR CIGS
MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z RESULTING LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL LATER THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING...SO ANY
SNOW SHOWER THAT MOVES OVER THE TERMINAL MAY COAT THE AIRPORT
RUNWAYS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING...SO ANY SNOW SHOWER THAT MOVES OVER THE TERMINAL MAY COAT
THE AIRPORT RUNWAYS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GUSTY NW WINDS...BUT MAINLY VFR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS LIKELY.
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS PARTICULARLY CAPE COD...CAPE ANN AND PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH SHORE.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START BUT LATE DAY DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION.  TIMING UNCERTAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT OVER THE OPEN WATERS.  THIS A RESULT OF VERY COLD AIR WITH
850T DROPPING TO NEAR -20C PROMOTING EXCELLENT MIXING OVER THE
RELATIVELY MILD OCEAN. GALE WARNINGS ALL WATERS EXCEPT STRONG SCA
HEADLINES BOSTON HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY.  FINALLY...ADVISORY FOR
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY FOR EASTERN MA WATERS/CAPE COD BAY TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BUT REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.  WINDS/SEAS SHOULD FINALLY DROP BELOW
SCA LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER
OVERNIGHT.

SAT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
STRONG N-NW WINDS WILL LEAD TO GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AT TIMES
ALONG WITH MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OFFSHORE. THESE WINDS DISSIPATE SOME ON SUN...BUT ITS LIKELY SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL FOLLOW.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA... BUT SEAS BUILD AS SOME
SORT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. RECORD COLD
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. HERE ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH...

BOSTON.......15/1979 - 14/1916
HARTFORD.....11/1979 - 11/1979
PROVIDENCE...10/1979 - 10/1979
WORCESTER.... 8/1899 -  7/1979
BLUE HILL.... 9/1899 - 10/1979

RECORD COLD LOWS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH - 15TH...

BOSTON...... -3/1967 -  -3/1934 - -14/1943
HARTFORD.... -7/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943
PROVIDENCE.. -5/1967 -  -7/1979 - -14/1943
WORCESTER...-12/1967 - -11/1979 - -19/1943
BLUE HILL...-10/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 111200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT TODAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH A
FEW LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS.  BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH A FEW LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW
  SQUALLS EXPECTED TODAY***

7 AM UPDATE...
MODEST VORT ADVECTION THIS MORNING IS LEADING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHALLOW AND LIGHT SN ACROSS CT AND THE LOWER CT VALLEY OF MA.
MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THIS FEATURE SO POPS ARE MAINLY
MANUALLY GENERATED THIS MORNING...BUT BLENDED INTO THE NAM THIS
AFTERNOON. THE REASON FOR THIS BLEND IS IT APPEARS TO BE CAPTURING
THE INSTABILITY INCREASE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGHLIGHTS
THE SNOW SQUALL RISK NICELY. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE FORECAST
PARAMETERS ARE ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS WILL
ALLOW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH MID MORNING.  THERE ARE ALSO SEVERAL PARAMETERS INDICATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS.  THESE INCLUDE 0
TO 3 KM LAPSE RATES INCREASING TO NEAR 9C/KM...SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.  BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY
IS AREAL COVERAGE OF THE ACTIVITY WHICH WILL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE LOWEST 0-2KM OF THE ATMOSPHERE THAN THE NAM...PROBABLY
WHY IT SHOWS MORE QPF.

WITH ALL THAT SAID...EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE
RISK OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVIER SQUALLS.  MAIN CONCERN IS THAT ANY
LOCALIZED SQUALLS MAY RESULT IN ROADS QUICKLY BE COME SNOW
COVERED/SLIPPERY ALONG WITH BRIEF POOR VISIBILITY. UNLIKE YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.  HIGHS WILL PRETTY
MUCH HOLD IN THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS TODAY...SO ANY SNOW SHOWER OF
MODERATE INTENSITY WILL QUICKLY STICK TO ROADWAYS EVEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE A COATING TO LESS
THAN 1 INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED 1 TO
2 INCH AMOUNTS.

IT WILL BECOME QUITE BLUSTERY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
***WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND 10 BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT
  INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING***

TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH 850T FALLING TO
NEAR -20C. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO AROUND 10 ABOVE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP
TO BETWEEN 0 AND 10 BELOW ZERO.

FRIDAY...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS OUT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT.  HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY
REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER
THAN THIS AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...BUT MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY EVENING WITH SOME MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION.  OF MORE INTEREST...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RARE OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT...BUT WITH 850T STILL AROUND -14C.  THIS
YIELDS 850/SST DIFFERENTIAL OF AROUND 22C AND GENERATES BETWEEN 400
AND 500 J/KG OF OCEAN INDUCED CAPE.  MOST OUR MESO MODELS ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST BY 00Z
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
* MORE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY NEUTRALIZE TOWARD
NEXT WEEK AS WEEKEND SRN AND NRN STREAM PHASING ALLOWS FOR SOME
FLATTENING OF THE FLOW ACROSS THE NE CONUS. UNTIL THEN
HOWEVER...CONDUIT FOR COLD AIR...WITH VERY CYCLONICALLY CURVED
FLOW WILL YIELD A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN CULMINATING IN
POTENTIAL STORM FOR MID NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS FEATURE REMAINS
ELUSIVE GIVEN SEVERE TRACK DISCREPANCIES AMONG OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. THERE IS ENOUGH SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THAT A
BLEND OF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE WILL BE USED FOR THE BASELINE
THROUGH THE MID TERM. HOWEVER...WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECASTER/S
THINKING AND LEAN MORE HEAVILY ON ENSEMBLES FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...
VERY ROBUST ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA...FRI NIGHT AS ENERGY TRANSFERS FROM LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF
ONTARIO TO LOW PRES DEVELOPING S OF THE GULF OF MAINE INTERSECTION
WITH NOVA SCOTIA. WHILE THIS IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE FOR DIRECT IMPACT
ON SRN NEW ENGLAND A STRONG INVERTED TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE ADVISORY
TO WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER A VERY LOCALIZED AREA. CURRENT
ORIENTATION IS MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL MAINE. A FEW SHSN ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES...AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CAPE COD/ANN FOR OCEAN EFFECT GIVEN 25C OR GREATER
SST-H85 DELTA-T VALUES. WINDS HAVE MAINLY A WESTERLY
COMPONENT...SO THIS WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THEY COULD BE
SHOULD THE WIND ORIENT MORE TO THE N.

OTHERWISE...H92 TEMPS DROP FROM -12C TO -24C BY LATE SAT SUGGESTS
THAT TEMPS MAY HOLD OR EVEN DROP DURING THE DAY ON SAT. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ATTEMPT TO MELT THE WARM HEARTS OF
VALENTINES DAY. ENSEMBLES SHOW NEARLY 80 PERCENT PROBS OF H85
TEMPS BELOW -30C. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WHICH WILL ENHANCE NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. AMBIENT TEMPERATURES ALONE
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW 0F...BUT COMBINED WITH THIS
20-30 MPH BREEZE...SUSPECT 15-25 BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. WILL LIKELY NEED WIND CHILL
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. STILL COLD ON SUN AS
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS LEAVING WIND
CHILLS BELOW 0F. THE SECONDARY ARCTIC ENHANCEMENT WILL ALSO LEAD
TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS ALONG CAPE ANN/COD
AGAIN AND WILL SHIFT THE INVERTED TROF TO THE S. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS SNOWFALL.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE REGION WITH SLIGHT WARMING TREND. H92
TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR -12C. SO HIGHS WILL RISE CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS...MAINLY IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S. LESS OF A RISK FOR COLD
WIND CHILLS AS PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS.

TUE AND WED...
INTERESTING SETUP WITH SRN STREAM REGAINING CONTROL AND
DEVELOPING A LOW PRES WITH CONNECTION TO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AS GEFS MEAN IS OVER THE
BENCHMARK WHILE ECENS MEAN IS WELL INLAND. IN ANY CASE...A
POTENTIAL P-TYPE ISSUE STORM WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL QPF.
THE WEDGE OF COLD AIR LEFT OVER MAY LEAD TO SOME ICE DEVELOPMENT
DEPENDING ON THIS TRACK...OR EVEN JUST ALL RAIN/SNOW. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE AS IMPACTS COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL
IF ICE IS INVOLVED. FOR NOW...THE BLEND DOES HAVE A BIT OF ICE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THIS IS
LIKELY TO CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING
OF ANY SHSN THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTSIDE OF SOME LIGHT SN IN THE CT VALLEY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING. THEN FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE AN ONGOING RISK FOR
SHSN...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS. THIS RISK DIMINISHES THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...WIND GUSTS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE W...WITH
20-30KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS COME
TO AN END THIS EVENING.  OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MARGINAL MVFR CIGS
MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z RESULTING LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL LATER THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING...SO ANY
SNOW SHOWER THAT MOVES OVER THE TERMINAL MAY COAT THE AIRPORT
RUNWAYS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING...SO ANY SNOW SHOWER THAT MOVES OVER THE TERMINAL MAY COAT
THE AIRPORT RUNWAYS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GUSTY NW WINDS...BUT MAINLY VFR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS LIKELY.
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS PARTICULARLY CAPE COD...CAPE ANN AND PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH SHORE.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START BUT LATE DAY DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION.  TIMING UNCERTAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT OVER THE OPEN WATERS.  THIS A RESULT OF VERY COLD AIR WITH
850T DROPPING TO NEAR -20C PROMOTING EXCELLENT MIXING OVER THE
RELATIVELY MILD OCEAN. GALE WARNINGS ALL WATERS EXCEPT STRONG SCA
HEADLINES BOSTON HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY.  FINALLY...ADVISORY FOR
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY FOR EASTERN MA WATERS/CAPE COD BAY TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BUT REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.  WINDS/SEAS SHOULD FINALLY DROP BELOW
SCA LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER
OVERNIGHT.

SAT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
STRONG N-NW WINDS WILL LEAD TO GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AT TIMES
ALONG WITH MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OFFSHORE. THESE WINDS DISSIPATE SOME ON SUN...BUT ITS LIKELY SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL FOLLOW.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA... BUT SEAS BUILD AS SOME
SORT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. RECORD COLD
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. HERE ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH...

BOSTON.......15/1979 - 14/1916
HARTFORD.....11/1979 - 11/1979
PROVIDENCE...10/1979 - 10/1979
WORCESTER.... 8/1899 -  7/1979
BLUE HILL.... 9/1899 - 10/1979

RECORD COLD LOWS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH - 15TH...

BOSTON...... -3/1967 -  -3/1934 - -14/1943
HARTFORD.... -7/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943
PROVIDENCE.. -5/1967 -  -7/1979 - -14/1943
WORCESTER...-12/1967 - -11/1979 - -19/1943
BLUE HILL...-10/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 111200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT TODAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH A
FEW LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS.  BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH A FEW LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW
  SQUALLS EXPECTED TODAY***

7 AM UPDATE...
MODEST VORT ADVECTION THIS MORNING IS LEADING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHALLOW AND LIGHT SN ACROSS CT AND THE LOWER CT VALLEY OF MA.
MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THIS FEATURE SO POPS ARE MAINLY
MANUALLY GENERATED THIS MORNING...BUT BLENDED INTO THE NAM THIS
AFTERNOON. THE REASON FOR THIS BLEND IS IT APPEARS TO BE CAPTURING
THE INSTABILITY INCREASE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGHLIGHTS
THE SNOW SQUALL RISK NICELY. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE FORECAST
PARAMETERS ARE ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS WILL
ALLOW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH MID MORNING.  THERE ARE ALSO SEVERAL PARAMETERS INDICATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS.  THESE INCLUDE 0
TO 3 KM LAPSE RATES INCREASING TO NEAR 9C/KM...SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.  BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY
IS AREAL COVERAGE OF THE ACTIVITY WHICH WILL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE LOWEST 0-2KM OF THE ATMOSPHERE THAN THE NAM...PROBABLY
WHY IT SHOWS MORE QPF.

WITH ALL THAT SAID...EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE
RISK OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVIER SQUALLS.  MAIN CONCERN IS THAT ANY
LOCALIZED SQUALLS MAY RESULT IN ROADS QUICKLY BE COME SNOW
COVERED/SLIPPERY ALONG WITH BRIEF POOR VISIBILITY. UNLIKE YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.  HIGHS WILL PRETTY
MUCH HOLD IN THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS TODAY...SO ANY SNOW SHOWER OF
MODERATE INTENSITY WILL QUICKLY STICK TO ROADWAYS EVEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE A COATING TO LESS
THAN 1 INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED 1 TO
2 INCH AMOUNTS.

IT WILL BECOME QUITE BLUSTERY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
***WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND 10 BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT
  INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING***

TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH 850T FALLING TO
NEAR -20C. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO AROUND 10 ABOVE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP
TO BETWEEN 0 AND 10 BELOW ZERO.

FRIDAY...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS OUT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT.  HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY
REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER
THAN THIS AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...BUT MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY EVENING WITH SOME MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION.  OF MORE INTEREST...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RARE OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT...BUT WITH 850T STILL AROUND -14C.  THIS
YIELDS 850/SST DIFFERENTIAL OF AROUND 22C AND GENERATES BETWEEN 400
AND 500 J/KG OF OCEAN INDUCED CAPE.  MOST OUR MESO MODELS ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST BY 00Z
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
* MORE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY NEUTRALIZE TOWARD
NEXT WEEK AS WEEKEND SRN AND NRN STREAM PHASING ALLOWS FOR SOME
FLATTENING OF THE FLOW ACROSS THE NE CONUS. UNTIL THEN
HOWEVER...CONDUIT FOR COLD AIR...WITH VERY CYCLONICALLY CURVED
FLOW WILL YIELD A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN CULMINATING IN
POTENTIAL STORM FOR MID NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS FEATURE REMAINS
ELUSIVE GIVEN SEVERE TRACK DISCREPANCIES AMONG OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. THERE IS ENOUGH SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THAT A
BLEND OF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE WILL BE USED FOR THE BASELINE
THROUGH THE MID TERM. HOWEVER...WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECASTER/S
THINKING AND LEAN MORE HEAVILY ON ENSEMBLES FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...
VERY ROBUST ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA...FRI NIGHT AS ENERGY TRANSFERS FROM LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF
ONTARIO TO LOW PRES DEVELOPING S OF THE GULF OF MAINE INTERSECTION
WITH NOVA SCOTIA. WHILE THIS IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE FOR DIRECT IMPACT
ON SRN NEW ENGLAND A STRONG INVERTED TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE ADVISORY
TO WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER A VERY LOCALIZED AREA. CURRENT
ORIENTATION IS MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL MAINE. A FEW SHSN ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES...AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CAPE COD/ANN FOR OCEAN EFFECT GIVEN 25C OR GREATER
SST-H85 DELTA-T VALUES. WINDS HAVE MAINLY A WESTERLY
COMPONENT...SO THIS WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THEY COULD BE
SHOULD THE WIND ORIENT MORE TO THE N.

OTHERWISE...H92 TEMPS DROP FROM -12C TO -24C BY LATE SAT SUGGESTS
THAT TEMPS MAY HOLD OR EVEN DROP DURING THE DAY ON SAT. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ATTEMPT TO MELT THE WARM HEARTS OF
VALENTINES DAY. ENSEMBLES SHOW NEARLY 80 PERCENT PROBS OF H85
TEMPS BELOW -30C. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WHICH WILL ENHANCE NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. AMBIENT TEMPERATURES ALONE
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW 0F...BUT COMBINED WITH THIS
20-30 MPH BREEZE...SUSPECT 15-25 BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. WILL LIKELY NEED WIND CHILL
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. STILL COLD ON SUN AS
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS LEAVING WIND
CHILLS BELOW 0F. THE SECONDARY ARCTIC ENHANCEMENT WILL ALSO LEAD
TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS ALONG CAPE ANN/COD
AGAIN AND WILL SHIFT THE INVERTED TROF TO THE S. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS SNOWFALL.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE REGION WITH SLIGHT WARMING TREND. H92
TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR -12C. SO HIGHS WILL RISE CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS...MAINLY IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S. LESS OF A RISK FOR COLD
WIND CHILLS AS PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS.

TUE AND WED...
INTERESTING SETUP WITH SRN STREAM REGAINING CONTROL AND
DEVELOPING A LOW PRES WITH CONNECTION TO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AS GEFS MEAN IS OVER THE
BENCHMARK WHILE ECENS MEAN IS WELL INLAND. IN ANY CASE...A
POTENTIAL P-TYPE ISSUE STORM WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL QPF.
THE WEDGE OF COLD AIR LEFT OVER MAY LEAD TO SOME ICE DEVELOPMENT
DEPENDING ON THIS TRACK...OR EVEN JUST ALL RAIN/SNOW. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE AS IMPACTS COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL
IF ICE IS INVOLVED. FOR NOW...THE BLEND DOES HAVE A BIT OF ICE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THIS IS
LIKELY TO CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING
OF ANY SHSN THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTSIDE OF SOME LIGHT SN IN THE CT VALLEY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING. THEN FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE AN ONGOING RISK FOR
SHSN...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS. THIS RISK DIMINISHES THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...WIND GUSTS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE W...WITH
20-30KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS COME
TO AN END THIS EVENING.  OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MARGINAL MVFR CIGS
MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z RESULTING LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL LATER THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING...SO ANY
SNOW SHOWER THAT MOVES OVER THE TERMINAL MAY COAT THE AIRPORT
RUNWAYS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING...SO ANY SNOW SHOWER THAT MOVES OVER THE TERMINAL MAY COAT
THE AIRPORT RUNWAYS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GUSTY NW WINDS...BUT MAINLY VFR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS LIKELY.
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS PARTICULARLY CAPE COD...CAPE ANN AND PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH SHORE.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START BUT LATE DAY DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION.  TIMING UNCERTAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT OVER THE OPEN WATERS.  THIS A RESULT OF VERY COLD AIR WITH
850T DROPPING TO NEAR -20C PROMOTING EXCELLENT MIXING OVER THE
RELATIVELY MILD OCEAN. GALE WARNINGS ALL WATERS EXCEPT STRONG SCA
HEADLINES BOSTON HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY.  FINALLY...ADVISORY FOR
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY FOR EASTERN MA WATERS/CAPE COD BAY TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BUT REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.  WINDS/SEAS SHOULD FINALLY DROP BELOW
SCA LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER
OVERNIGHT.

SAT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
STRONG N-NW WINDS WILL LEAD TO GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AT TIMES
ALONG WITH MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OFFSHORE. THESE WINDS DISSIPATE SOME ON SUN...BUT ITS LIKELY SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL FOLLOW.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA... BUT SEAS BUILD AS SOME
SORT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. RECORD COLD
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. HERE ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH...

BOSTON.......15/1979 - 14/1916
HARTFORD.....11/1979 - 11/1979
PROVIDENCE...10/1979 - 10/1979
WORCESTER.... 8/1899 -  7/1979
BLUE HILL.... 9/1899 - 10/1979

RECORD COLD LOWS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH - 15TH...

BOSTON...... -3/1967 -  -3/1934 - -14/1943
HARTFORD.... -7/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943
PROVIDENCE.. -5/1967 -  -7/1979 - -14/1943
WORCESTER...-12/1967 - -11/1979 - -19/1943
BLUE HILL...-10/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 110907
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
407 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT TODAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH A
FEW LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS.  BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH A FEW LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW
  SQUALLS EXPECTED TODAY***

ANOTHER FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS WILL
ALLOW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH MID MORNING.  THERE ARE ALSO SEVERAL PARAMETERS INDICATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS.  THESE INCLUDE 0
TO 3 KM LAPSE RATES INCREASING TO NEAR 9C/KM...SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.  BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY
IS AREAL COVERAGE OF THE ACTIVITY WHICH WILL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE LOWEST 0-2KM OF THE ATMOSPHERE THAN THE NAM...PROBABLY
WHY IT SHOWS MORE QPF.

WITH ALL THAT SAID...EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE
RISK OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVIER SQUALLS.  MAIN CONCERN IS THAT ANY
LOCALIZED SQUALLS MAY RESULT IN ROADS QUICKLY BE COME SNOW
COVERED/SLIPPERY ALONG WITH BRIEF POOR VISIBILITY. UNLIKE YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.  HIGHS WILL PRETTY
MUCH HOLD IN THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS TODAY...SO ANY SNOW SHOWER OF
MODERATE INTENSITY WILL QUICKLY STICK TO ROADWAYS EVEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE A COATING TO LESS
THAN 1 INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED 1 TO
2 INCH AMOUNTS.

IT WILL BECOME QUITE BLUSTERY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
***WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND 10 BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT
  INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING***

TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH 850T FALLING TO
NEAR -20C. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO AROUND 10 ABOVE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP
TO BETWEEN 0 AND 10 BELOW ZERO.

FRIDAY...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS OUT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT.  HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY
REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER
THAN THIS AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...BUT MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY EVENING WITH SOME MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION.  OF MORE INTEREST...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RARE OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT...BUT WITH 850T STILL AROUND -14C.  THIS
YIELDS 850/SST DIFFERENTIAL OF AROUND 22C AND GENERATES BETWEEN 400
AND 500 J/KG OF OCEAN INDUCED CAPE.  MOST OUR MESO MODELS ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST BY 00Z
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
* MORE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY NEUTRALIZE TOWARD
NEXT WEEK AS WEEKEND SRN AND NRN STREAM PHASING ALLOWS FOR SOME
FLATTENING OF THE FLOW ACROSS THE NE CONUS. UNTIL THEN
HOWEVER...CONDUIT FOR COLD AIR...WITH VERY CYCLONICALLY CURVED
FLOW WILL YIELD A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN CULMINATING IN
POTENTIAL STORM FOR MID NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS FEATURE REMAINS
ELUSIVE GIVEN SEVERE TRACK DISCREPANCIES AMONG OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. THERE IS ENOUGH SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THAT A
BLEND OF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE WILL BE USED FOR THE BASELINE
THROUGH THE MID TERM. HOWEVER...WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECASTER/S
THINKING AND LEAN MORE HEAVILY ON ENSEMBLES FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...
VERY ROBUST ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA...FRI NIGHT AS ENERGY TRANSFERS FROM LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF
ONTARIO TO LOW PRES DEVELOPING S OF THE GULF OF MAINE INTERSECTION
WITH NOVA SCOTIA. WHILE THIS IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE FOR DIRECT IMPACT
ON SRN NEW ENGLAND A STRONG INVERTED TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE ADVISORY
TO WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER A VERY LOCALIZED AREA. CURRENT
ORIENTATION IS MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL MAINE. A FEW SHSN ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES...AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CAPE COD/ANN FOR OCEAN EFFECT GIVEN 25C OR GREATER
SST-H85 DELTA-T VALUES. WINDS HAVE MAINLY A WESTERLY
COMPONENT...SO THIS WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THEY COULD BE
SHOULD THE WIND ORIENT MORE TO THE N.

OTHERWISE...H92 TEMPS DROP FROM -12C TO -24C BY LATE SAT SUGGESTS
THAT TEMPS MAY HOLD OR EVEN DROP DURING THE DAY ON SAT. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ATTEMPT TO MELT THE WARM HEARTS OF
VALENTINES DAY. ENSEMBLES SHOW NEARLY 80 PERCENT PROBS OF H85
TEMPS BELOW -30C. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WHICH WILL ENHANCE NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. AMBIENT TEMPERATURES ALONE
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW 0F...BUT COMBINED WITH THIS
20-30 MPH BREEZE...SUSPECT 15-25 BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. WILL LIKELY NEED WIND CHILL
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. STILL COLD ON SUN AS
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS LEAVING WIND
CHILLS BELOW 0F. THE SECONDARY ARCTIC ENHANCEMENT WILL ALSO LEAD
TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS ALONG CAPE ANN/COD
AGAIN AND WILL SHIFT THE INVERTED TROF TO THE S. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS SNOWFALL.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE REGION WITH SLIGHT WARMING TREND. H92
TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR -12C. SO HIGHS WILL RISE CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS...MAINLY IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S. LESS OF A RISK FOR COLD
WIND CHILLS AS PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS.

TUE AND WED...
INTERESTING SETUP WITH SRN STREAM REGAINING CONTROL AND
DEVELOPING A LOW PRES WITH CONNECTION TO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AS GEFS MEAN IS OVER THE
BENCHMARK WHILE ECENS MEAN IS WELL INLAND. IN ANY CASE...A
POTENTIAL P-TYPE ISSUE STORM WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL QPF.
THE WEDGE OF COLD AIR LEFT OVER MAY LEAD TO SOME ICE DEVELOPMENT
DEPENDING ON THIS TRACK...OR EVEN JUST ALL RAIN/SNOW. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE AS IMPACTS COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL
IF ICE IS INVOLVED. FOR NOW...THE BLEND DOES HAVE A BIT OF ICE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THIS IS
LIKELY TO CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A BROKEN DECK OF MAINLY LOW
END VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR CIGS.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
RESULT IN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AND EVEN THE RISK FOR VERY LOCALIZED
LIFR CONDITIONS IN ANY SNOW SQUALLS.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS COME
TO AN END THIS EVENING.  OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MARGINAL MVFR CIGS
MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z RESULTING LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL LATER THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING...SO ANY
SNOW SHOWER THAT MOVES OVER THE TERMINAL MAY COAT THE AIRPORT
RUNWAYS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING...SO ANY SNOW SHOWER THAT MOVES OVER THE TERMINAL MAY COAT
THE AIRPORT RUNWAYS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GUSTY NW WINDS...BUT MAINLY VFR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS LIKELY.
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS PARTICULARLY CAPE COD...CAPE ANN AND PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH SHORE.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START BUT LATE DAY DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION.  TIMING UNCERTAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT OVER THE OPEN WATERS.  THIS A RESULT OF VERY COLD AIR WITH
850T DROPPING TO NEAR -20C PROMOTING EXCELLENT MIXING OVER THE
RELATIVELY MILD OCEAN. GALE WARNINGS ALL WATERS EXCEPT STRONG SCA
HEADLINES BOSTON HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY.  FINALLY...ADVISORY FOR
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY FOR EASTERN MA WATERS/CAPE COD BAY TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BUT REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.  WINDS/SEAS SHOULD FINALLY DROP BELOW
SCA LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER
OVERNIGHT.

SAT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
STRONG N-NW WINDS WILL LEAD TO GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AT TIMES
ALONG WITH MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OFFSHORE. THESE WINDS DISSIPATE SOME ON SUN...BUT ITS LIKELY SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL FOLLOW.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA... BUT SEAS BUILD AS SOME
SORT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. RECORD COLD
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. HERE ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH...

BOSTON.......15/1979 - 14/1916
HARTFORD.....11/1979 - 11/1979
PROVIDENCE...10/1979 - 10/1979
WORCESTER.... 8/1899 -  7/1979
BLUE HILL.... 9/1899 - 10/1979

RECORD COLD LOWS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH - 15TH...

BOSTON...... -3/1967 -  -3/1934 - -14/1943
HARTFORD.... -7/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943
PROVIDENCE.. -5/1967 -  -7/1979 - -14/1943
WORCESTER...-12/1967 - -11/1979 - -19/1943
BLUE HILL...-10/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
CLIMATE...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KGYX 110851
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
351 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG
COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD...COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS...THE
WIND CHILLS WILL BECOME DANGEROUS FOR A TIME THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
COLD FNT HAS CROSSED THE AREA THIS MORNING...CLEARING OUT SOME OF
THE RELATIVELY MOIST AIR THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE. PATCHY FREEZING
FOG...OR DEPOSITION ON THE ROADS OUT THERE MAY LEAD TO A FEW SLICK
SPOTS THRU MORNING AS A RESULT.

A SECONDARY COLD FNT IS ALREADY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE
W. AHEAD OF IT SOME SN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND ALONG IT ANY
SN SHOWER MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY. LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP
DURING THE DAY...AND COULD SUPPORT LOCALIZED AREAS OF STRONG LIFT
EVEN IF ONLY IN THE LOWEST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET. HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE FAVORS SRN ZONES FOR THAT...AND THE HIGHEST POP WAS
PLACED IN THESE AREAS. IF THE HEAVY SN SHOWERS OR SQUALLS DEVELOP
IN THIS MANNER...AN INCREASE IN POP IS LIKELY AND SPECIAL WX
STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH VERY WEAK
S/WV RIDGING SET TO CROSS THE AREA. THE CAA TODAY WILL HAVE SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME CHILLY TEMPS RELATIVE TO THE WINTER SO FAR.
READINGS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN THE N...WITH SINGLE DIGITS DOWN
TO THE COAST. RECOVERY WILL BE TOUGH GOING FRI...WITH TEENS AND
20S DOING IT FOR HIGH TEMPS.

WILL KEEP AN EYE TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY...AS LOBE OF
POLAR VORTEX PINWHEELS DOWN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. AHEAD OF IT SN
SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS RAPIDLY COOLING AIR ALOFT
CREATES AN UNSTABLE COLUMN. THOUGH THE BULK OF THE SNWFL SHOULD BE
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MAINE
BY SATURDAY MORNING. ARCTIC FRONT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL KICK
OFF SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS AS IT SWINGS IN FROM THE WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT AN AREA OF STEADIER SNOW TO DEVELOP GENERALLY
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN DOWNEAST AND MIDCOAST AREAS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY AN
INCH OR LESS BUT MIDCOAST AREAS MAY SEE SEVERAL ICHES BY SATURDAY
MORNING. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND LOWER TEENS SOUTH.

INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER DOWNEAST MAINE ON SATURDAY
AND WILL LIKELY BACK SNOWFALL WEST INTO WESTERN MAINE AND
POSSIBLY EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY. GFS DEPOSITING AN INCH
OR MORE OF QPF OVER DOWNEAST SECTIONS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING BUT
MAINLY IN CARIBOU`S AREA. MAY NEED ADVISORIES OR POSSIBLY WARNINGS
FOR FAR EASTERN MID COAST ZONES WHERE A GOOD FLUFF FACTOR WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO POSSIBLY 6 INCHES. AT
THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE WESTERN MAINE WILL ESCAPE THE WORST OF THIS
ONE WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONNS DURING THE DAY. EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON PRODUCING A LOT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE
LIGHT POWDERY SNOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE
NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

EXPECT SNOW TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY
PIVOTS OVER DOWNEAST MAINE...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND
MIDCOAST LOCATIONS WHERE SEVERAL MORE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIGHT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT PRODUCING A LOT BLOWING AND DRIFTING AND
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW NORTH
AND 5 TO 10 BELOW SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN STRONG DURING THE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT THIS WILL HARDLY
BUDGE TEMPS WITH READINGS BARELY CLIMBING ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTH
AND REMAINING IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT PRODUCING
ANOTHER VERY FRIDGED NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO SOUTH
TO 10 BELOW NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING
WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING AHEAD
OF NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING AND
POSSIBLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO
GET BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID TEENS TO
LOWER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
MODELS STILL CONVERGING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP
THE EAST COAST. SEEING THE GFS GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARD THE
WARMER ECMWF FORECAST FROM LAST NIGHT...BRINGING LOW PRESSURE
FARTHER WEST. THIS WOULD LIKELY START PRECIP AS A MIX AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ON TUESDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A MIX POSSIBLY HANGING ON
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT IN FAR WESTERN ZONES.

LOW PRESURE FORECAST TO PULL AWAY ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW DELIVERING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ONE OVER THE MIDCOAST ASSOCIATED WITH GRADUALLY LIFTING
FG/STRATUS...AND ANOTHER IN THE MTNS OF NRN NH. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED. EXCEPTION WILL BE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
SECONDARY COLD FNT. SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FNT...WITH LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE FNT VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT HIE...AND GUSTY NWLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SEAS ARE BUILDING AGAIN AS FIRST COLD FNT IS CROSSING
THE WATERS. A STRONGER SECONDARY FNT CROSSES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING GALES TO SRN WATERS...AND STRONG SCA CONDITIONS N
OF PORTLAND. AS TEMPS FALL OVERNIGHT AND WINDS/SEAS REMAIN
UP...FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE LIKELY AND AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL WATERS INTO FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT
LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND
RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AVIATION...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH
MARINE...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KGYX 110851
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
351 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG
COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD...COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS...THE
WIND CHILLS WILL BECOME DANGEROUS FOR A TIME THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
COLD FNT HAS CROSSED THE AREA THIS MORNING...CLEARING OUT SOME OF
THE RELATIVELY MOIST AIR THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE. PATCHY FREEZING
FOG...OR DEPOSITION ON THE ROADS OUT THERE MAY LEAD TO A FEW SLICK
SPOTS THRU MORNING AS A RESULT.

A SECONDARY COLD FNT IS ALREADY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE
W. AHEAD OF IT SOME SN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND ALONG IT ANY
SN SHOWER MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY. LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP
DURING THE DAY...AND COULD SUPPORT LOCALIZED AREAS OF STRONG LIFT
EVEN IF ONLY IN THE LOWEST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET. HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE FAVORS SRN ZONES FOR THAT...AND THE HIGHEST POP WAS
PLACED IN THESE AREAS. IF THE HEAVY SN SHOWERS OR SQUALLS DEVELOP
IN THIS MANNER...AN INCREASE IN POP IS LIKELY AND SPECIAL WX
STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH VERY WEAK
S/WV RIDGING SET TO CROSS THE AREA. THE CAA TODAY WILL HAVE SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME CHILLY TEMPS RELATIVE TO THE WINTER SO FAR.
READINGS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN THE N...WITH SINGLE DIGITS DOWN
TO THE COAST. RECOVERY WILL BE TOUGH GOING FRI...WITH TEENS AND
20S DOING IT FOR HIGH TEMPS.

WILL KEEP AN EYE TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY...AS LOBE OF
POLAR VORTEX PINWHEELS DOWN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. AHEAD OF IT SN
SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS RAPIDLY COOLING AIR ALOFT
CREATES AN UNSTABLE COLUMN. THOUGH THE BULK OF THE SNWFL SHOULD BE
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MAINE
BY SATURDAY MORNING. ARCTIC FRONT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL KICK
OFF SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS AS IT SWINGS IN FROM THE WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT AN AREA OF STEADIER SNOW TO DEVELOP GENERALLY
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN DOWNEAST AND MIDCOAST AREAS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY AN
INCH OR LESS BUT MIDCOAST AREAS MAY SEE SEVERAL ICHES BY SATURDAY
MORNING. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND LOWER TEENS SOUTH.

INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER DOWNEAST MAINE ON SATURDAY
AND WILL LIKELY BACK SNOWFALL WEST INTO WESTERN MAINE AND
POSSIBLY EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY. GFS DEPOSITING AN INCH
OR MORE OF QPF OVER DOWNEAST SECTIONS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING BUT
MAINLY IN CARIBOU`S AREA. MAY NEED ADVISORIES OR POSSIBLY WARNINGS
FOR FAR EASTERN MID COAST ZONES WHERE A GOOD FLUFF FACTOR WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO POSSIBLY 6 INCHES. AT
THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE WESTERN MAINE WILL ESCAPE THE WORST OF THIS
ONE WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONNS DURING THE DAY. EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON PRODUCING A LOT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE
LIGHT POWDERY SNOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE
NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

EXPECT SNOW TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY
PIVOTS OVER DOWNEAST MAINE...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND
MIDCOAST LOCATIONS WHERE SEVERAL MORE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIGHT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT PRODUCING A LOT BLOWING AND DRIFTING AND
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW NORTH
AND 5 TO 10 BELOW SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN STRONG DURING THE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT THIS WILL HARDLY
BUDGE TEMPS WITH READINGS BARELY CLIMBING ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTH
AND REMAINING IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT PRODUCING
ANOTHER VERY FRIDGED NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO SOUTH
TO 10 BELOW NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING
WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING AHEAD
OF NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING AND
POSSIBLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO
GET BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID TEENS TO
LOWER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
MODELS STILL CONVERGING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP
THE EAST COAST. SEEING THE GFS GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARD THE
WARMER ECMWF FORECAST FROM LAST NIGHT...BRINGING LOW PRESSURE
FARTHER WEST. THIS WOULD LIKELY START PRECIP AS A MIX AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ON TUESDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A MIX POSSIBLY HANGING ON
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT IN FAR WESTERN ZONES.

LOW PRESURE FORECAST TO PULL AWAY ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW DELIVERING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ONE OVER THE MIDCOAST ASSOCIATED WITH GRADUALLY LIFTING
FG/STRATUS...AND ANOTHER IN THE MTNS OF NRN NH. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED. EXCEPTION WILL BE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
SECONDARY COLD FNT. SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FNT...WITH LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE FNT VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT HIE...AND GUSTY NWLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SEAS ARE BUILDING AGAIN AS FIRST COLD FNT IS CROSSING
THE WATERS. A STRONGER SECONDARY FNT CROSSES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING GALES TO SRN WATERS...AND STRONG SCA CONDITIONS N
OF PORTLAND. AS TEMPS FALL OVERNIGHT AND WINDS/SEAS REMAIN
UP...FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE LIKELY AND AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL WATERS INTO FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT
LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND
RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AVIATION...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH
MARINE...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KGYX 110851
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
351 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG
COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD...COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS...THE
WIND CHILLS WILL BECOME DANGEROUS FOR A TIME THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
COLD FNT HAS CROSSED THE AREA THIS MORNING...CLEARING OUT SOME OF
THE RELATIVELY MOIST AIR THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE. PATCHY FREEZING
FOG...OR DEPOSITION ON THE ROADS OUT THERE MAY LEAD TO A FEW SLICK
SPOTS THRU MORNING AS A RESULT.

A SECONDARY COLD FNT IS ALREADY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE
W. AHEAD OF IT SOME SN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND ALONG IT ANY
SN SHOWER MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY. LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP
DURING THE DAY...AND COULD SUPPORT LOCALIZED AREAS OF STRONG LIFT
EVEN IF ONLY IN THE LOWEST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET. HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE FAVORS SRN ZONES FOR THAT...AND THE HIGHEST POP WAS
PLACED IN THESE AREAS. IF THE HEAVY SN SHOWERS OR SQUALLS DEVELOP
IN THIS MANNER...AN INCREASE IN POP IS LIKELY AND SPECIAL WX
STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH VERY WEAK
S/WV RIDGING SET TO CROSS THE AREA. THE CAA TODAY WILL HAVE SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME CHILLY TEMPS RELATIVE TO THE WINTER SO FAR.
READINGS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN THE N...WITH SINGLE DIGITS DOWN
TO THE COAST. RECOVERY WILL BE TOUGH GOING FRI...WITH TEENS AND
20S DOING IT FOR HIGH TEMPS.

WILL KEEP AN EYE TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY...AS LOBE OF
POLAR VORTEX PINWHEELS DOWN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. AHEAD OF IT SN
SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS RAPIDLY COOLING AIR ALOFT
CREATES AN UNSTABLE COLUMN. THOUGH THE BULK OF THE SNWFL SHOULD BE
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MAINE
BY SATURDAY MORNING. ARCTIC FRONT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL KICK
OFF SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS AS IT SWINGS IN FROM THE WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT AN AREA OF STEADIER SNOW TO DEVELOP GENERALLY
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN DOWNEAST AND MIDCOAST AREAS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY AN
INCH OR LESS BUT MIDCOAST AREAS MAY SEE SEVERAL ICHES BY SATURDAY
MORNING. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND LOWER TEENS SOUTH.

INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER DOWNEAST MAINE ON SATURDAY
AND WILL LIKELY BACK SNOWFALL WEST INTO WESTERN MAINE AND
POSSIBLY EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY. GFS DEPOSITING AN INCH
OR MORE OF QPF OVER DOWNEAST SECTIONS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING BUT
MAINLY IN CARIBOU`S AREA. MAY NEED ADVISORIES OR POSSIBLY WARNINGS
FOR FAR EASTERN MID COAST ZONES WHERE A GOOD FLUFF FACTOR WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO POSSIBLY 6 INCHES. AT
THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE WESTERN MAINE WILL ESCAPE THE WORST OF THIS
ONE WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONNS DURING THE DAY. EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON PRODUCING A LOT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE
LIGHT POWDERY SNOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE
NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

EXPECT SNOW TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY
PIVOTS OVER DOWNEAST MAINE...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND
MIDCOAST LOCATIONS WHERE SEVERAL MORE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIGHT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT PRODUCING A LOT BLOWING AND DRIFTING AND
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW NORTH
AND 5 TO 10 BELOW SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN STRONG DURING THE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT THIS WILL HARDLY
BUDGE TEMPS WITH READINGS BARELY CLIMBING ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTH
AND REMAINING IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT PRODUCING
ANOTHER VERY FRIDGED NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO SOUTH
TO 10 BELOW NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING
WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING AHEAD
OF NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING AND
POSSIBLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO
GET BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID TEENS TO
LOWER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
MODELS STILL CONVERGING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP
THE EAST COAST. SEEING THE GFS GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARD THE
WARMER ECMWF FORECAST FROM LAST NIGHT...BRINGING LOW PRESSURE
FARTHER WEST. THIS WOULD LIKELY START PRECIP AS A MIX AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ON TUESDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A MIX POSSIBLY HANGING ON
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT IN FAR WESTERN ZONES.

LOW PRESURE FORECAST TO PULL AWAY ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW DELIVERING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ONE OVER THE MIDCOAST ASSOCIATED WITH GRADUALLY LIFTING
FG/STRATUS...AND ANOTHER IN THE MTNS OF NRN NH. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED. EXCEPTION WILL BE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
SECONDARY COLD FNT. SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FNT...WITH LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE FNT VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT HIE...AND GUSTY NWLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SEAS ARE BUILDING AGAIN AS FIRST COLD FNT IS CROSSING
THE WATERS. A STRONGER SECONDARY FNT CROSSES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING GALES TO SRN WATERS...AND STRONG SCA CONDITIONS N
OF PORTLAND. AS TEMPS FALL OVERNIGHT AND WINDS/SEAS REMAIN
UP...FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE LIKELY AND AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL WATERS INTO FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT
LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND
RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AVIATION...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH
MARINE...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH



000
FXUS61 KGYX 110500 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1200 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT
FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE
FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION
AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.
ADDED SOME FREEZING FOG FOR MIDCOAST ZONES...AS A WEAK WAVE IS
MOVING THRU THE AREA. RELATIVELY MOIST...CALM CONDITIONS THERE
AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL ALLOW THE FOG TO PERSIST...BUT FORECAST AND
OBS SHOW DRIER AIR QUICKLY MOVING IN.

PREV DISC...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 110500 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1200 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT
FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE
FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION
AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.
ADDED SOME FREEZING FOG FOR MIDCOAST ZONES...AS A WEAK WAVE IS
MOVING THRU THE AREA. RELATIVELY MOIST...CALM CONDITIONS THERE
AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL ALLOW THE FOG TO PERSIST...BUT FORECAST AND
OBS SHOW DRIER AIR QUICKLY MOVING IN.

PREV DISC...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 110500 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1200 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT
FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE
FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION
AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.
ADDED SOME FREEZING FOG FOR MIDCOAST ZONES...AS A WEAK WAVE IS
MOVING THRU THE AREA. RELATIVELY MOIST...CALM CONDITIONS THERE
AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL ALLOW THE FOG TO PERSIST...BUT FORECAST AND
OBS SHOW DRIER AIR QUICKLY MOVING IN.

PREV DISC...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KBOX 110251
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
950 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE RISK FOR MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY. BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

950 PM UPDATE...

ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE
SHORTWAVE HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...BUT NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY BE
APPROACHING TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY.  THIS MAY ALLOW SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THURSDAY...
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AND
MODEST LARGE SCALE FORCING...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT SFC TO
700 MB LAPSE RATES ARE...INCREASING TO 8-9 C/KM. WE HAVE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT WHICH MAY HELP TO FOCUS ACTIVITY MORE
THAN TODAY SO THERE IS POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
SHOWERS. ACCUM WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH BUT CANT RULE
OUT LOCALIZED 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

POST FRONTAL W/NW WINDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. TEMPS WILL HOLD MOSTLY IN THE 20S...TO
AROUND 30 NEAR THE COAST..BUT WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS AND TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE FOLLOWED BY GOOD MID LEVEL DRYING WHICH
WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY IN THE
EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE RATHER COLD
WITH LOW TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS...EXCEPT LOWER
TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING WILL BE ZERO TO 10 BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
* MORE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.  THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WITH CONTINUED TROUGHING
OVER THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.  DIFFERENCES
AND CHALLENGES COME IN THE EXACT PATH OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
INCLUDING SHORTWAVES...AS WELL AS THE MORE MESOSCALE FEATURES.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD LEANED TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS RATHER THAN USING THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AS THERE IS A LOT OF
SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S...LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ALONG THE
EAST COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO. THE BIG STORY WITH THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL ALREADY BE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS YET TO COME.

THIS WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NOT MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE MAY BE
SOME OCEAN EFFECT WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR.  INSTEAD THE COLD
WILL TAKE CENTER STAGE...ALONG WITH SOME BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SEEP INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE 20 TO EVEN 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  HAVE VERY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES
COUPLED WITH AN EQUALLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY REGION WILL RESULT IN A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 20 MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH...EVEN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
SATURDAY NIGHT.  WITH TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE...EVEN JUST SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
VERY COLD WIND CHILLS.  AT THIS TIME...WE ARE LOOKING AT WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT.  DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND 5 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW ZERO FOR SUNDAY.  IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A WEEKEND TO
BUNDLE UP AND STAY INDOORS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THERE MAY BE A STORM BRINGING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
THE TRACK OF THE POTENTIAL STORM IS VERY UNCERTAIN WITH GEFS AND EPS
MEMBERS VARYING FROM AN INSIDE RUNNER TO A COASTAL STORM TO EVEN
HIGH PRESSURE. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SOME SORT OF
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
IN WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW.  STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECASTS
FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS...BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS W MA AND N
CT TOWARD 12Z WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWER CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WOULD RESULT IN BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR. NW GUSTS TO 25-30 KT
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE
EVENING...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. ARCTIC FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. CHANCE OF -SHSN.
EXPECTED ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN INCH.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS LIKELY.  BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  LIKELY A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SOME SORT OF PRECIP...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8 FT OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...POST FRONTAL NW WINDS WILL INCREASE
THU AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH GALES LIKELY. GALE WATCHES
WERE CONVERTED TO WARNINGS FOR GUSTS TO 35 KT.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT
LAKES.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES DEFINITE...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
GALE FORCE WINDS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY STILL
BE NECESSARY.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...
BUT SEAS BUILD AS SOME SORT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. RECORD COLD
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. HERE ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH...

BOSTON.......15/1979 - 14/1916
HARTFORD.....11/1979 - 11/1979
PROVIDENCE...10/1979 - 10/1979
WORCESTER.... 8/1899 -  7/1979
BLUE HILL.... 9/1899 - 10/1979

RECORD COLD LOWS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH - 15TH...

BOSTON...... -3/1967 -  -3/1934 - -14/1943
HARTFORD.... -7/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943
PROVIDENCE.. -5/1967 -  -7/1979 - -14/1943
WORCESTER...-12/1967 - -11/1979 - -19/1943
BLUE HILL...-10/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ230-236.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
CLIMATE...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 110251
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
950 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE RISK FOR MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY. BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

950 PM UPDATE...

ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE
SHORTWAVE HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...BUT NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY BE
APPROACHING TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY.  THIS MAY ALLOW SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THURSDAY...
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AND
MODEST LARGE SCALE FORCING...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT SFC TO
700 MB LAPSE RATES ARE...INCREASING TO 8-9 C/KM. WE HAVE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT WHICH MAY HELP TO FOCUS ACTIVITY MORE
THAN TODAY SO THERE IS POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
SHOWERS. ACCUM WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH BUT CANT RULE
OUT LOCALIZED 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

POST FRONTAL W/NW WINDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. TEMPS WILL HOLD MOSTLY IN THE 20S...TO
AROUND 30 NEAR THE COAST..BUT WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS AND TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE FOLLOWED BY GOOD MID LEVEL DRYING WHICH
WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY IN THE
EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE RATHER COLD
WITH LOW TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS...EXCEPT LOWER
TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING WILL BE ZERO TO 10 BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
* MORE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.  THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WITH CONTINUED TROUGHING
OVER THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.  DIFFERENCES
AND CHALLENGES COME IN THE EXACT PATH OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
INCLUDING SHORTWAVES...AS WELL AS THE MORE MESOSCALE FEATURES.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD LEANED TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS RATHER THAN USING THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AS THERE IS A LOT OF
SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S...LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ALONG THE
EAST COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO. THE BIG STORY WITH THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL ALREADY BE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS YET TO COME.

THIS WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NOT MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE MAY BE
SOME OCEAN EFFECT WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR.  INSTEAD THE COLD
WILL TAKE CENTER STAGE...ALONG WITH SOME BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SEEP INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE 20 TO EVEN 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  HAVE VERY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES
COUPLED WITH AN EQUALLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY REGION WILL RESULT IN A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 20 MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH...EVEN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
SATURDAY NIGHT.  WITH TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE...EVEN JUST SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
VERY COLD WIND CHILLS.  AT THIS TIME...WE ARE LOOKING AT WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT.  DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND 5 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW ZERO FOR SUNDAY.  IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A WEEKEND TO
BUNDLE UP AND STAY INDOORS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THERE MAY BE A STORM BRINGING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
THE TRACK OF THE POTENTIAL STORM IS VERY UNCERTAIN WITH GEFS AND EPS
MEMBERS VARYING FROM AN INSIDE RUNNER TO A COASTAL STORM TO EVEN
HIGH PRESSURE. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SOME SORT OF
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
IN WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW.  STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECASTS
FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS...BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS W MA AND N
CT TOWARD 12Z WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWER CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WOULD RESULT IN BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR. NW GUSTS TO 25-30 KT
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE
EVENING...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. ARCTIC FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. CHANCE OF -SHSN.
EXPECTED ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN INCH.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS LIKELY.  BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  LIKELY A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SOME SORT OF PRECIP...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8 FT OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...POST FRONTAL NW WINDS WILL INCREASE
THU AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH GALES LIKELY. GALE WATCHES
WERE CONVERTED TO WARNINGS FOR GUSTS TO 35 KT.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT
LAKES.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES DEFINITE...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
GALE FORCE WINDS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY STILL
BE NECESSARY.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...
BUT SEAS BUILD AS SOME SORT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. RECORD COLD
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. HERE ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH...

BOSTON.......15/1979 - 14/1916
HARTFORD.....11/1979 - 11/1979
PROVIDENCE...10/1979 - 10/1979
WORCESTER.... 8/1899 -  7/1979
BLUE HILL.... 9/1899 - 10/1979

RECORD COLD LOWS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH - 15TH...

BOSTON...... -3/1967 -  -3/1934 - -14/1943
HARTFORD.... -7/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943
PROVIDENCE.. -5/1967 -  -7/1979 - -14/1943
WORCESTER...-12/1967 - -11/1979 - -19/1943
BLUE HILL...-10/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ230-236.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
CLIMATE...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KGYX 110246
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
946 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT
FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE
FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION
AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

945 PM...WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN MAINE AT 02Z WITH
TRAILING TROUGH THROUGH MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. RADAR WAS SHOWING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS TO INGEST THE 02Z MESONET.

PREV DISC...
610 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET IN NEAR
TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 110246
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
946 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT
FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE
FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION
AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

945 PM...WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN MAINE AT 02Z WITH
TRAILING TROUGH THROUGH MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. RADAR WAS SHOWING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS TO INGEST THE 02Z MESONET.

PREV DISC...
610 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET IN NEAR
TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 110246
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
946 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT
FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE
FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION
AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

945 PM...WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN MAINE AT 02Z WITH
TRAILING TROUGH THROUGH MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. RADAR WAS SHOWING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS TO INGEST THE 02Z MESONET.

PREV DISC...
610 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET IN NEAR
TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 110246
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
946 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT
FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE
FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION
AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

945 PM...WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN MAINE AT 02Z WITH
TRAILING TROUGH THROUGH MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. RADAR WAS SHOWING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS TO INGEST THE 02Z MESONET.

PREV DISC...
610 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET IN NEAR
TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 110246
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
946 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT
FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE
FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION
AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

945 PM...WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN MAINE AT 02Z WITH
TRAILING TROUGH THROUGH MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. RADAR WAS SHOWING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS TO INGEST THE 02Z MESONET.

PREV DISC...
610 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET IN NEAR
TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KBOX 110028
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
728 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
THE RISK FOR MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY. BITTERLY COLD
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE
PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...SNOW SHOWERS ARE BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE
AS THEY MOVE OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. THEY SHOULD COME TO AN END
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO STAY PUT THROUGH
THE NIGHT SO HAVE INCREASED THE SKY COVER FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE EAST THIS EVENING EXPECT
SCT SNOW SHOWERS TO END WITH DRY WEATHER MOST OF THE NIGHT. THERE
IS STILL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE GT LAKES AND
MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO W MA AND N CT TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOW
TEMPS UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AND
MODEST LARGE SCALE FORCING...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT SFC TO
700 MB LAPSE RATES ARE...INCREASING TO 8-9 C/KM. WE HAVE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT WHICH MAY HELP TO FOCUS ACTIVITY MORE
THAN TODAY SO THERE IS POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
SHOWERS. ACCUM WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH BUT CANT RULE
OUT LOCALIZED 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

POST FRONTAL W/NW WINDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. TEMPS WILL HOLD MOSTLY IN THE 20S...TO
AROUND 30 NEAR THE COAST..BUT WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS AND TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE FOLLOWED BY GOOD MID LEVEL DRYING WHICH
WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY IN THE
EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE RATHER COLD
WITH LOW TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS...EXCEPT LOWER
TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING WILL BE ZERO TO 10 BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
* MORE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.  THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WITH CONTINUED TROUGHING
OVER THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.  DIFFERENCES
AND CHALLENGES COME IN THE EXACT PATH OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
INCLUDING SHORTWAVES...AS WELL AS THE MORE MESOSCALE FEATURES.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD LEANED TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS RATHER THAN USING THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AS THERE IS A LOT OF
SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S...LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ALONG THE
EAST COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO. THE BIG STORY WITH THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL ALREADY BE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS YET TO COME.

THIS WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NOT MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE MAY BE
SOME OCEAN EFFECT WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR.  INSTEAD THE COLD
WILL TAKE CENTER STAGE...ALONG WITH SOME BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SEEP INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE 20 TO EVEN 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  HAVE VERY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES
COUPLED WITH AN EQUALLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY REGION WILL RESULT IN A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 20 MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH...EVEN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
SATURDAY NIGHT.  WITH TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE...EVEN JUST SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
VERY COLD WIND CHILLS.  AT THIS TIME...WE ARE LOOKING AT WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT.  DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND 5 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW ZERO FOR SUNDAY.  IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A WEEKEND TO
BUNDLE UP AND STAY INDOORS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THERE MAY BE A STORM BRINGING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
THE TRACK OF THE POTENTIAL STORM IS VERY UNCERTAIN WITH GEFS AND EPS
MEMBERS VARYING FROM AN INSIDE RUNNER TO A COASTAL STORM TO EVEN
HIGH PRESSURE. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SOME SORT OF
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
IN WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW.  STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECASTS
FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS...BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS W MA AND N
CT TOWARD 12Z WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWER CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WOULD RESULT IN BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR. NW GUSTS TO 25-30 KT
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE
EVENING...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. ARCTIC FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. CHANCE OF -SHSN.
EXPECTED ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN INCH.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS LIKELY.  BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  LIKELY A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SOME SORT OF PRECIP...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8 FT OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...POST FRONTAL NW WINDS WILL INCREASE
THU AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH GALES LIKELY. GALE WATCHES
WERE CONVERTED TO WARNINGS FOR GUSTS TO 35 KT.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT
LAKES.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES DEFINITE...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
GALE FORCE WINDS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY STILL
BE NECESSARY.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...
BUT SEAS BUILD AS SOME SORT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. RECORD COLD
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. HERE ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH...

BOSTON.......15/1979 - 14/1916
HARTFORD.....11/1979 - 11/1979
PROVIDENCE...10/1979 - 10/1979
WORCESTER.... 8/1899 -  7/1979
BLUE HILL.... 9/1899 - 10/1979

RECORD COLD LOWS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH - 15TH...

BOSTON...... -3/1967 -  -3/1934 - -14/1943
HARTFORD.... -7/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943
PROVIDENCE.. -5/1967 -  -7/1979 - -14/1943
WORCESTER...-12/1967 - -11/1979 - -19/1943
BLUE HILL...-10/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ230-236.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
CLIMATE...RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 110028
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
728 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
THE RISK FOR MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY. BITTERLY COLD
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE
PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...SNOW SHOWERS ARE BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE
AS THEY MOVE OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. THEY SHOULD COME TO AN END
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO STAY PUT THROUGH
THE NIGHT SO HAVE INCREASED THE SKY COVER FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE EAST THIS EVENING EXPECT
SCT SNOW SHOWERS TO END WITH DRY WEATHER MOST OF THE NIGHT. THERE
IS STILL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE GT LAKES AND
MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO W MA AND N CT TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOW
TEMPS UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AND
MODEST LARGE SCALE FORCING...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT SFC TO
700 MB LAPSE RATES ARE...INCREASING TO 8-9 C/KM. WE HAVE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT WHICH MAY HELP TO FOCUS ACTIVITY MORE
THAN TODAY SO THERE IS POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
SHOWERS. ACCUM WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH BUT CANT RULE
OUT LOCALIZED 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

POST FRONTAL W/NW WINDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. TEMPS WILL HOLD MOSTLY IN THE 20S...TO
AROUND 30 NEAR THE COAST..BUT WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS AND TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE FOLLOWED BY GOOD MID LEVEL DRYING WHICH
WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY IN THE
EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE RATHER COLD
WITH LOW TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS...EXCEPT LOWER
TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING WILL BE ZERO TO 10 BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
* MORE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.  THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WITH CONTINUED TROUGHING
OVER THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.  DIFFERENCES
AND CHALLENGES COME IN THE EXACT PATH OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
INCLUDING SHORTWAVES...AS WELL AS THE MORE MESOSCALE FEATURES.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD LEANED TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS RATHER THAN USING THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AS THERE IS A LOT OF
SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S...LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ALONG THE
EAST COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO. THE BIG STORY WITH THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL ALREADY BE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS YET TO COME.

THIS WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NOT MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE MAY BE
SOME OCEAN EFFECT WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR.  INSTEAD THE COLD
WILL TAKE CENTER STAGE...ALONG WITH SOME BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SEEP INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE 20 TO EVEN 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  HAVE VERY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES
COUPLED WITH AN EQUALLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY REGION WILL RESULT IN A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 20 MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH...EVEN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
SATURDAY NIGHT.  WITH TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE...EVEN JUST SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
VERY COLD WIND CHILLS.  AT THIS TIME...WE ARE LOOKING AT WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT.  DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND 5 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW ZERO FOR SUNDAY.  IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A WEEKEND TO
BUNDLE UP AND STAY INDOORS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THERE MAY BE A STORM BRINGING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
THE TRACK OF THE POTENTIAL STORM IS VERY UNCERTAIN WITH GEFS AND EPS
MEMBERS VARYING FROM AN INSIDE RUNNER TO A COASTAL STORM TO EVEN
HIGH PRESSURE. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SOME SORT OF
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
IN WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW.  STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECASTS
FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS...BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS W MA AND N
CT TOWARD 12Z WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWER CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WOULD RESULT IN BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR. NW GUSTS TO 25-30 KT
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE
EVENING...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. ARCTIC FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. CHANCE OF -SHSN.
EXPECTED ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN INCH.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS LIKELY.  BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  LIKELY A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SOME SORT OF PRECIP...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8 FT OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...POST FRONTAL NW WINDS WILL INCREASE
THU AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH GALES LIKELY. GALE WATCHES
WERE CONVERTED TO WARNINGS FOR GUSTS TO 35 KT.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT
LAKES.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES DEFINITE...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
GALE FORCE WINDS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY STILL
BE NECESSARY.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...
BUT SEAS BUILD AS SOME SORT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. RECORD COLD
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. HERE ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH...

BOSTON.......15/1979 - 14/1916
HARTFORD.....11/1979 - 11/1979
PROVIDENCE...10/1979 - 10/1979
WORCESTER.... 8/1899 -  7/1979
BLUE HILL.... 9/1899 - 10/1979

RECORD COLD LOWS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH - 15TH...

BOSTON...... -3/1967 -  -3/1934 - -14/1943
HARTFORD.... -7/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943
PROVIDENCE.. -5/1967 -  -7/1979 - -14/1943
WORCESTER...-12/1967 - -11/1979 - -19/1943
BLUE HILL...-10/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ230-236.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
CLIMATE...RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 110028
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
728 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
THE RISK FOR MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY. BITTERLY COLD
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE
PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...SNOW SHOWERS ARE BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE
AS THEY MOVE OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. THEY SHOULD COME TO AN END
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO STAY PUT THROUGH
THE NIGHT SO HAVE INCREASED THE SKY COVER FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE EAST THIS EVENING EXPECT
SCT SNOW SHOWERS TO END WITH DRY WEATHER MOST OF THE NIGHT. THERE
IS STILL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE GT LAKES AND
MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO W MA AND N CT TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOW
TEMPS UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AND
MODEST LARGE SCALE FORCING...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT SFC TO
700 MB LAPSE RATES ARE...INCREASING TO 8-9 C/KM. WE HAVE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT WHICH MAY HELP TO FOCUS ACTIVITY MORE
THAN TODAY SO THERE IS POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
SHOWERS. ACCUM WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH BUT CANT RULE
OUT LOCALIZED 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

POST FRONTAL W/NW WINDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. TEMPS WILL HOLD MOSTLY IN THE 20S...TO
AROUND 30 NEAR THE COAST..BUT WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS AND TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE FOLLOWED BY GOOD MID LEVEL DRYING WHICH
WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY IN THE
EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE RATHER COLD
WITH LOW TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS...EXCEPT LOWER
TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING WILL BE ZERO TO 10 BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
* MORE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.  THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WITH CONTINUED TROUGHING
OVER THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.  DIFFERENCES
AND CHALLENGES COME IN THE EXACT PATH OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
INCLUDING SHORTWAVES...AS WELL AS THE MORE MESOSCALE FEATURES.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD LEANED TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS RATHER THAN USING THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AS THERE IS A LOT OF
SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S...LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ALONG THE
EAST COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO. THE BIG STORY WITH THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL ALREADY BE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS YET TO COME.

THIS WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NOT MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE MAY BE
SOME OCEAN EFFECT WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR.  INSTEAD THE COLD
WILL TAKE CENTER STAGE...ALONG WITH SOME BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SEEP INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE 20 TO EVEN 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  HAVE VERY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES
COUPLED WITH AN EQUALLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY REGION WILL RESULT IN A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 20 MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH...EVEN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
SATURDAY NIGHT.  WITH TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE...EVEN JUST SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
VERY COLD WIND CHILLS.  AT THIS TIME...WE ARE LOOKING AT WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT.  DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND 5 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW ZERO FOR SUNDAY.  IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A WEEKEND TO
BUNDLE UP AND STAY INDOORS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THERE MAY BE A STORM BRINGING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
THE TRACK OF THE POTENTIAL STORM IS VERY UNCERTAIN WITH GEFS AND EPS
MEMBERS VARYING FROM AN INSIDE RUNNER TO A COASTAL STORM TO EVEN
HIGH PRESSURE. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SOME SORT OF
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
IN WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW.  STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECASTS
FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS...BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS W MA AND N
CT TOWARD 12Z WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWER CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WOULD RESULT IN BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR. NW GUSTS TO 25-30 KT
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE
EVENING...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. ARCTIC FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. CHANCE OF -SHSN.
EXPECTED ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN INCH.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS LIKELY.  BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  LIKELY A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SOME SORT OF PRECIP...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8 FT OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...POST FRONTAL NW WINDS WILL INCREASE
THU AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH GALES LIKELY. GALE WATCHES
WERE CONVERTED TO WARNINGS FOR GUSTS TO 35 KT.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT
LAKES.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES DEFINITE...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
GALE FORCE WINDS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY STILL
BE NECESSARY.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...
BUT SEAS BUILD AS SOME SORT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. RECORD COLD
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. HERE ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH...

BOSTON.......15/1979 - 14/1916
HARTFORD.....11/1979 - 11/1979
PROVIDENCE...10/1979 - 10/1979
WORCESTER.... 8/1899 -  7/1979
BLUE HILL.... 9/1899 - 10/1979

RECORD COLD LOWS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH - 15TH...

BOSTON...... -3/1967 -  -3/1934 - -14/1943
HARTFORD.... -7/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943
PROVIDENCE.. -5/1967 -  -7/1979 - -14/1943
WORCESTER...-12/1967 - -11/1979 - -19/1943
BLUE HILL...-10/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ230-236.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
CLIMATE...RLG




000
FXUS61 KGYX 102312
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
612 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL LINGER TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE
A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT
DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

610 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET IN NEAR
TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 102312
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
612 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL LINGER TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE
A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT
DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

610 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET IN NEAR
TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 102312
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
612 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL LINGER TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE
A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT
DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

610 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET IN NEAR
TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KBOX 102114
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
414 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
THE RISK FOR MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY. BITTERLY COLD
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE
PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. LACK OF A FOCUSING MECHANISM IS LIMITING
ORGANIZATION OF THE ACTIVITY. BUT GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES THE THREAT OF LOCALLY BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE EAST THIS EVENING EXPECT
SCT SNOW SHOWERS TO END WITH DRY WEATHER MOST OF THE NIGHT. THERE
IS STILL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO MAINTAIN CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE GT
LAKES AND MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO W MA AND N CT TOWARD
DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPS UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AND
MODEST LARGE SCALE FORCING...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT SFC TO
700 MB LAPSE RATES ARE...INCREASING TO 8-9 C/KM. WE HAVE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT WHICH MAY HELP TO FOCUS ACTIVITY MORE
THAN TODAY SO THERE IS POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
SHOWERS. ACCUM WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH BUT CANT RULE
OUT LOCALIZED 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

POST FRONTAL W/NW WINDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. TEMPS WILL HOLD MOSTLY IN THE 20S...TO
AROUND 30 NEAR THE COAST..BUT WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS AND TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE FOLLOWED BY GOOD MID LEVEL DRYING WHICH
WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY IN THE
EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE RATHER COLD
WITH LOW TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS...EXCEPT LOWER
TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING WILL BE ZERO TO 10 BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
* MORE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.  THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WITH CONTINUED TROUGHING
OVER THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.  DIFFERENCES
AND CHALLENGES COME IN THE EXACT PATH OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
INCLUDING SHORTWAVES...AS WELL AS THE MORE MESOSCALE FEATURES.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD LEANED TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS RATHER THAN USING THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AS THERE IS A LOT OF
SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S...LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ALONG THE
EAST COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO. THE BIG STORY WITH THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL ALREADY BE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS YET TO COME.

THIS WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NOT MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE MAY BE
SOME OCEAN EFFECT WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR.  INSTEAD THE COLD
WILL TAKE CENTER STAGE...ALONG WITH SOME BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SEEP INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE 20 TO EVEN 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  HAVE VERY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES
COUPLED WITH AN EQUALLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY REGION WILL RESULT IN A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 20 MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH...EVEN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
SATURDAY NIGHT.  WITH TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE...EVEN JUST SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
VERY COLD WIND CHILLS.  AT THIS TIME...WE ARE LOOKING AT WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT.  DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND 5 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW ZERO FOR SUNDAY.  IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A WEEKEND TO
BUNDLE UP AND STAY INDOORS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THERE MAY BE A STORM BRINGING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
THE TRACK OF THE POTENTIAL STORM IS VERY UNCERTAIN WITH GEFS AND EPS
MEMBERS VARYING FROM AN INSIDE RUNNER TO A COASTAL STORM TO EVEN
HIGH PRESSURE. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SOME SORT OF
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
IN WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW.  STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECASTS
FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 00Z...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
LOCALIZED BRIEF LIFR IN ISOLD HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS...BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS W MA AND N
CT TOWARD 12Z WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWER CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WOULD RESULT IN BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR. NW GUSTS TO 25-30 KT
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE
EVENING...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. ARCTIC FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. CHANCE OF -SHSN.
EXPECTED ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN INCH.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS LIKELY.  BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  LIKELY A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SOME SORT OF PRECIP...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8 FT OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...POST FRONTAL NW WINDS WILL INCREASE
THU AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH GALES LIKELY. GALE WATCHES
WERE CONVERTED TO WARNINGS FOR GUSTS TO 35 KT.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT
LAKES.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES DEFINITE...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
GALE FORCE WINDS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY STILL
BE NECESSARY.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...
BUT SEAS BUILD AS SOME SORT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KGYX 102040
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
340 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY BUT UP TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDY
WEATHER LINGERS TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET
TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF
BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...CANNON




000
FXUS61 KGYX 102040
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
340 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY BUT UP TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDY
WEATHER LINGERS TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET
TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF
BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...CANNON



000
FXUS61 KGYX 102040
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
340 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY BUT UP TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDY
WEATHER LINGERS TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET
TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF
BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...CANNON




000
FXUS61 KGYX 102030
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
330 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY BUT UP TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDY
WEATHER LINGERS TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET
TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF
BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KBOX 101810
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
110 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SCATTERED BUT LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...BUT A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE RISK FOR MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY. BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY WILL MOVE
 INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ***

1 PM UPDATE...
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS RI AND CENTRAL MA MOVING SLOWLY EAST.
MEANWHILE SCT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING EAST FROM CENTRAL AND E NY. THIS
ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND EXPECT
SCT SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO SNE THIS AFTERNOON. SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8C/KM SO THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS CONTINUES. HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS
AREAL EXTENT WILL BE LIMITED BUT ANY HEAVY SQUALLS COULD BRING A
QUICK INCH OF SNOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES INTO NEW ENG. WHILE BRUNT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PASSES TO THE SOUTH...MODEST LARGE SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY
WILL LEAD TO MORE SCT SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALLS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEED 8 C/KM WHICH IS PRETTY
EXTREME AND TOTALS TOTALS NEAR 60 SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY
CONVECTIVE SNOW SQUALLS WITH POOR VSBYS AND A QUICK INCH OR 2 OF
SNOW. ANY SQUALLS WILL BE ISOLATED BUT WOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT WHERE THEY OCCUR. THE BULK OF THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY 00Z THIS EVENING...BUT STILL MAY IMPACT
THE EVENING RUSH HOUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...BULK OF THE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE COAST BY 00Z.  OTHERWISE...MUCH OF
THE NIGHT WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER OTHER THAN PERHAPS A SPOT
FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.

THURSDAY...

ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION ON THURSDAY.  IN RESPONSE...SCATTERED FLURRIES/SNOW
SHOWERS MAY BE ON GOING BY EARLY THU MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE
REGION LATER IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  WHILE WE CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...DRY AIR WORKING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL COMPARED TO TODAY.  IT WILL
ALSO BE COLDER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND
35 MPH BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
* MORE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH A MODESTLY NEGATIVE NAO/AO REGIME...A LONGWAVE TROF REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS ERN CANADA AND ACTS AS A CONDUIT FOR COLD AIR TO
ENTER NEW ENGLAND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COLD AIR COMES AS A
SERIES OF ARCTIC SHORTWAVES...THE DEEPEST AND STRONGEST OF WHICH
WILL BRING ABOUT THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR THIS
WEEKEND. IT ALSO SUGGESTS A RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH A
NEARLY DAILY LOW RISK FOR SHSN ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL THE PROGGED
SHIFT OCCURS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT BETWEEN
OPERATIONAL MODELS THAT A BLEND OF THESE MODELS WILL WORK AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL ALREADY BE SLIDING E OF THE REGION BY
THU EVENING...ALLOWING ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHSN TO DISSIPATE.
MODEST RIDGING IN BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND THE STRONGER ARCTIC WAVE
FOR THE WEEKEND...WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA YIELDING A MAINLY DRY
24 HR PERIOD. MODEST INCREASE IN H92 TEMPS FROM ABOUT -18C TO
ABOUT -12C BY 00Z FRI WILL STILL KEEP TEMPS COLD...MINS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...
STRONG ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES DIVING SE OUT OF
ONTARIO WILL BRING IN ONE OF THE COLDEST AIRMASSES WE HAVE SEEN IN
SOME TIME. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOME INTERACTION WITH THE SRN
STREAM...BUT MAINLY OFFSHORE WITH STRONG BOMBING CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING TOO FAR DOWNSTREAM. ENSEMBLES/OPERATIONAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO AGREE HERE...SO SUSPECT DIRECT IMPACT FROM THIS
BOMBING LOW TO MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...ISALLOBARIC PRES
COUPLET MAINLY W-E ORIENTED SUGGESTS THAT STRONG FLOW WITH STRONG
PRES GRADIENT MAY HAVE TOO MUCH OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT FOR OCEAN
EFFECT. HOWEVER...ANY SHIFT TO THE N...WITH SST-H85 DELTA-T VALUES
EXCEEDING 25C...COULD YIELD SOME ADVISORY LEVEL /IF NOT HIGHER/
SNOWFALL FOR CAPE COD. THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEGINNING LATE
FRI NIGHT MEANS THERE WILL BE LITTLE INCREASE FROM THE MINS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TO THE HIGHS ON SAT.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
H92/H85 TEMPS DROP TO ALMOST 4 STD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL /NEAR
-30C AT H85/. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A FAIRLY PERSISTENT N-S PRES
GRADIENT TO YIELD BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. AMBIENT TEMPERATURES ALONE
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS. WITH WIND
GUSTS 20-30 MPH...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGIT
WIND CHILLS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS ARE LOOKING QUITE LIKELY. OTHER THAN
COLD...LOW RISK FOR OCEAN EFFECT CONTINUES DEPENDING ON EXACT FLOW
PATTERN.

MON...
STRONG HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE REGION...AND ALTHOUGH MODEST
RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE MON...THE COLD AIRMASS REMAINS THE
DOMINANT PLAYER. ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS SAT NIGHT AND SUN...TEMPS
ARE LIKELY TO STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS OBSERVED LATE SUN NIGHT.

MID NEXT WEEK...
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY HERE AS STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES MAINLY S OF
THE REGION...WITH THE SRN STREAM BEING DOMINANT. EXACT PATH OF
ATTENDANT LOW PRES REMAINS DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE AS ENSEMBLES RANGE
FROM A WARM INSIDE RUNNER...TO A HARD HITTING BENCHMARK LOW...TO A
WIDE RIGHT MISS. STILL SOME TIME...BUT THIS WILL BE ONE TO WATCH
AS THE PATTERN LOOKS TO SHIFT BACK...AWAY FROM THE CURRENT COLD
PATTERN TO A WARMER ONE BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
LOCALIZED BRIEF LIFR IN ISOLD HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS...BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS W MA AND N
CT TOWARD 12Z WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWER CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WOULD RESULT IN BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR. NW GUSTS TO 25-30 KT
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE
EVENING...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

FRI NIGHT INTO SUN...
MAINLY VFR INLAND...BUT SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER CAPE COD DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHSN. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AT TIMES...20-30 KT POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
VERY COLD CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS TODAY. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL
WILL KEEP SEAS BETWEEN 3 AND 6 FEET ACROSS OUR OUTER-WATERS AND
WESTERN SOUNDS TODAY...SO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED ON THE OPEN WATERS ALONG WITH 3 TO 6 FOOT SEAS.  SCA
HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  STRONG COLD FRONT WORKS
ACROSS THE REGION AND WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 35 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SOUNDINGS
AND 850T DROPPING TO NEAR -20C.  GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR OUR OPEN WATERS WITH SCA
HEADLINES FOR BOSTON HARBOR/NARR BAY.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THU NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...GIVING WAY TO SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD WINDS AND SEAS BY
EARLY MORNING. SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRES WILL LEAD TO CONDITIONS DROPPING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS BRIEFLY. OTHERWISE COLD CONDITIONS.

SAT AND SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
NW WINDS MAY GUST TO GALE FORCE AT TIMES EACH DAY...BUT ESPECIALLY
SAT. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY COLD AIR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING SPRAY...WHICH COULD BE MODERATE AT TIMES. EVEN IF WINDS
DON/T FULLY REACH GALE FORCE...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AS SEAS BUILD AND APPROACH 6-9 FT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 101810
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
110 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SCATTERED BUT LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...BUT A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE RISK FOR MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY. BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY WILL MOVE
 INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ***

1 PM UPDATE...
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS RI AND CENTRAL MA MOVING SLOWLY EAST.
MEANWHILE SCT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING EAST FROM CENTRAL AND E NY. THIS
ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND EXPECT
SCT SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO SNE THIS AFTERNOON. SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8C/KM SO THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS CONTINUES. HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS
AREAL EXTENT WILL BE LIMITED BUT ANY HEAVY SQUALLS COULD BRING A
QUICK INCH OF SNOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES INTO NEW ENG. WHILE BRUNT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PASSES TO THE SOUTH...MODEST LARGE SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY
WILL LEAD TO MORE SCT SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALLS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEED 8 C/KM WHICH IS PRETTY
EXTREME AND TOTALS TOTALS NEAR 60 SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY
CONVECTIVE SNOW SQUALLS WITH POOR VSBYS AND A QUICK INCH OR 2 OF
SNOW. ANY SQUALLS WILL BE ISOLATED BUT WOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT WHERE THEY OCCUR. THE BULK OF THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY 00Z THIS EVENING...BUT STILL MAY IMPACT
THE EVENING RUSH HOUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...BULK OF THE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE COAST BY 00Z.  OTHERWISE...MUCH OF
THE NIGHT WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER OTHER THAN PERHAPS A SPOT
FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.

THURSDAY...

ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION ON THURSDAY.  IN RESPONSE...SCATTERED FLURRIES/SNOW
SHOWERS MAY BE ON GOING BY EARLY THU MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE
REGION LATER IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  WHILE WE CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...DRY AIR WORKING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL COMPARED TO TODAY.  IT WILL
ALSO BE COLDER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND
35 MPH BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
* MORE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH A MODESTLY NEGATIVE NAO/AO REGIME...A LONGWAVE TROF REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS ERN CANADA AND ACTS AS A CONDUIT FOR COLD AIR TO
ENTER NEW ENGLAND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COLD AIR COMES AS A
SERIES OF ARCTIC SHORTWAVES...THE DEEPEST AND STRONGEST OF WHICH
WILL BRING ABOUT THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR THIS
WEEKEND. IT ALSO SUGGESTS A RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH A
NEARLY DAILY LOW RISK FOR SHSN ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL THE PROGGED
SHIFT OCCURS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT BETWEEN
OPERATIONAL MODELS THAT A BLEND OF THESE MODELS WILL WORK AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL ALREADY BE SLIDING E OF THE REGION BY
THU EVENING...ALLOWING ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHSN TO DISSIPATE.
MODEST RIDGING IN BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND THE STRONGER ARCTIC WAVE
FOR THE WEEKEND...WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA YIELDING A MAINLY DRY
24 HR PERIOD. MODEST INCREASE IN H92 TEMPS FROM ABOUT -18C TO
ABOUT -12C BY 00Z FRI WILL STILL KEEP TEMPS COLD...MINS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...
STRONG ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES DIVING SE OUT OF
ONTARIO WILL BRING IN ONE OF THE COLDEST AIRMASSES WE HAVE SEEN IN
SOME TIME. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOME INTERACTION WITH THE SRN
STREAM...BUT MAINLY OFFSHORE WITH STRONG BOMBING CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING TOO FAR DOWNSTREAM. ENSEMBLES/OPERATIONAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO AGREE HERE...SO SUSPECT DIRECT IMPACT FROM THIS
BOMBING LOW TO MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...ISALLOBARIC PRES
COUPLET MAINLY W-E ORIENTED SUGGESTS THAT STRONG FLOW WITH STRONG
PRES GRADIENT MAY HAVE TOO MUCH OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT FOR OCEAN
EFFECT. HOWEVER...ANY SHIFT TO THE N...WITH SST-H85 DELTA-T VALUES
EXCEEDING 25C...COULD YIELD SOME ADVISORY LEVEL /IF NOT HIGHER/
SNOWFALL FOR CAPE COD. THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEGINNING LATE
FRI NIGHT MEANS THERE WILL BE LITTLE INCREASE FROM THE MINS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TO THE HIGHS ON SAT.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
H92/H85 TEMPS DROP TO ALMOST 4 STD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL /NEAR
-30C AT H85/. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A FAIRLY PERSISTENT N-S PRES
GRADIENT TO YIELD BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. AMBIENT TEMPERATURES ALONE
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS. WITH WIND
GUSTS 20-30 MPH...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGIT
WIND CHILLS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS ARE LOOKING QUITE LIKELY. OTHER THAN
COLD...LOW RISK FOR OCEAN EFFECT CONTINUES DEPENDING ON EXACT FLOW
PATTERN.

MON...
STRONG HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE REGION...AND ALTHOUGH MODEST
RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE MON...THE COLD AIRMASS REMAINS THE
DOMINANT PLAYER. ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS SAT NIGHT AND SUN...TEMPS
ARE LIKELY TO STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS OBSERVED LATE SUN NIGHT.

MID NEXT WEEK...
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY HERE AS STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES MAINLY S OF
THE REGION...WITH THE SRN STREAM BEING DOMINANT. EXACT PATH OF
ATTENDANT LOW PRES REMAINS DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE AS ENSEMBLES RANGE
FROM A WARM INSIDE RUNNER...TO A HARD HITTING BENCHMARK LOW...TO A
WIDE RIGHT MISS. STILL SOME TIME...BUT THIS WILL BE ONE TO WATCH
AS THE PATTERN LOOKS TO SHIFT BACK...AWAY FROM THE CURRENT COLD
PATTERN TO A WARMER ONE BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
LOCALIZED BRIEF LIFR IN ISOLD HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS...BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS W MA AND N
CT TOWARD 12Z WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWER CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WOULD RESULT IN BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR. NW GUSTS TO 25-30 KT
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE
EVENING...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

FRI NIGHT INTO SUN...
MAINLY VFR INLAND...BUT SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER CAPE COD DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHSN. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AT TIMES...20-30 KT POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
VERY COLD CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS TODAY. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL
WILL KEEP SEAS BETWEEN 3 AND 6 FEET ACROSS OUR OUTER-WATERS AND
WESTERN SOUNDS TODAY...SO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED ON THE OPEN WATERS ALONG WITH 3 TO 6 FOOT SEAS.  SCA
HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  STRONG COLD FRONT WORKS
ACROSS THE REGION AND WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 35 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SOUNDINGS
AND 850T DROPPING TO NEAR -20C.  GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR OUR OPEN WATERS WITH SCA
HEADLINES FOR BOSTON HARBOR/NARR BAY.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THU NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...GIVING WAY TO SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD WINDS AND SEAS BY
EARLY MORNING. SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRES WILL LEAD TO CONDITIONS DROPPING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS BRIEFLY. OTHERWISE COLD CONDITIONS.

SAT AND SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
NW WINDS MAY GUST TO GALE FORCE AT TIMES EACH DAY...BUT ESPECIALLY
SAT. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY COLD AIR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING SPRAY...WHICH COULD BE MODERATE AT TIMES. EVEN IF WINDS
DON/T FULLY REACH GALE FORCE...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AS SEAS BUILD AND APPROACH 6-9 FT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 101810
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
110 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SCATTERED BUT LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...BUT A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE RISK FOR MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY. BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY WILL MOVE
 INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ***

1 PM UPDATE...
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS RI AND CENTRAL MA MOVING SLOWLY EAST.
MEANWHILE SCT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING EAST FROM CENTRAL AND E NY. THIS
ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND EXPECT
SCT SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO SNE THIS AFTERNOON. SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8C/KM SO THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS CONTINUES. HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS
AREAL EXTENT WILL BE LIMITED BUT ANY HEAVY SQUALLS COULD BRING A
QUICK INCH OF SNOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES INTO NEW ENG. WHILE BRUNT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PASSES TO THE SOUTH...MODEST LARGE SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY
WILL LEAD TO MORE SCT SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALLS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEED 8 C/KM WHICH IS PRETTY
EXTREME AND TOTALS TOTALS NEAR 60 SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY
CONVECTIVE SNOW SQUALLS WITH POOR VSBYS AND A QUICK INCH OR 2 OF
SNOW. ANY SQUALLS WILL BE ISOLATED BUT WOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT WHERE THEY OCCUR. THE BULK OF THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY 00Z THIS EVENING...BUT STILL MAY IMPACT
THE EVENING RUSH HOUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...BULK OF THE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE COAST BY 00Z.  OTHERWISE...MUCH OF
THE NIGHT WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER OTHER THAN PERHAPS A SPOT
FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.

THURSDAY...

ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION ON THURSDAY.  IN RESPONSE...SCATTERED FLURRIES/SNOW
SHOWERS MAY BE ON GOING BY EARLY THU MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE
REGION LATER IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  WHILE WE CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...DRY AIR WORKING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL COMPARED TO TODAY.  IT WILL
ALSO BE COLDER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND
35 MPH BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
* MORE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH A MODESTLY NEGATIVE NAO/AO REGIME...A LONGWAVE TROF REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS ERN CANADA AND ACTS AS A CONDUIT FOR COLD AIR TO
ENTER NEW ENGLAND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COLD AIR COMES AS A
SERIES OF ARCTIC SHORTWAVES...THE DEEPEST AND STRONGEST OF WHICH
WILL BRING ABOUT THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR THIS
WEEKEND. IT ALSO SUGGESTS A RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH A
NEARLY DAILY LOW RISK FOR SHSN ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL THE PROGGED
SHIFT OCCURS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT BETWEEN
OPERATIONAL MODELS THAT A BLEND OF THESE MODELS WILL WORK AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL ALREADY BE SLIDING E OF THE REGION BY
THU EVENING...ALLOWING ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHSN TO DISSIPATE.
MODEST RIDGING IN BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND THE STRONGER ARCTIC WAVE
FOR THE WEEKEND...WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA YIELDING A MAINLY DRY
24 HR PERIOD. MODEST INCREASE IN H92 TEMPS FROM ABOUT -18C TO
ABOUT -12C BY 00Z FRI WILL STILL KEEP TEMPS COLD...MINS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...
STRONG ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES DIVING SE OUT OF
ONTARIO WILL BRING IN ONE OF THE COLDEST AIRMASSES WE HAVE SEEN IN
SOME TIME. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOME INTERACTION WITH THE SRN
STREAM...BUT MAINLY OFFSHORE WITH STRONG BOMBING CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING TOO FAR DOWNSTREAM. ENSEMBLES/OPERATIONAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO AGREE HERE...SO SUSPECT DIRECT IMPACT FROM THIS
BOMBING LOW TO MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...ISALLOBARIC PRES
COUPLET MAINLY W-E ORIENTED SUGGESTS THAT STRONG FLOW WITH STRONG
PRES GRADIENT MAY HAVE TOO MUCH OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT FOR OCEAN
EFFECT. HOWEVER...ANY SHIFT TO THE N...WITH SST-H85 DELTA-T VALUES
EXCEEDING 25C...COULD YIELD SOME ADVISORY LEVEL /IF NOT HIGHER/
SNOWFALL FOR CAPE COD. THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEGINNING LATE
FRI NIGHT MEANS THERE WILL BE LITTLE INCREASE FROM THE MINS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TO THE HIGHS ON SAT.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
H92/H85 TEMPS DROP TO ALMOST 4 STD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL /NEAR
-30C AT H85/. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A FAIRLY PERSISTENT N-S PRES
GRADIENT TO YIELD BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. AMBIENT TEMPERATURES ALONE
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS. WITH WIND
GUSTS 20-30 MPH...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGIT
WIND CHILLS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS ARE LOOKING QUITE LIKELY. OTHER THAN
COLD...LOW RISK FOR OCEAN EFFECT CONTINUES DEPENDING ON EXACT FLOW
PATTERN.

MON...
STRONG HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE REGION...AND ALTHOUGH MODEST
RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE MON...THE COLD AIRMASS REMAINS THE
DOMINANT PLAYER. ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS SAT NIGHT AND SUN...TEMPS
ARE LIKELY TO STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS OBSERVED LATE SUN NIGHT.

MID NEXT WEEK...
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY HERE AS STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES MAINLY S OF
THE REGION...WITH THE SRN STREAM BEING DOMINANT. EXACT PATH OF
ATTENDANT LOW PRES REMAINS DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE AS ENSEMBLES RANGE
FROM A WARM INSIDE RUNNER...TO A HARD HITTING BENCHMARK LOW...TO A
WIDE RIGHT MISS. STILL SOME TIME...BUT THIS WILL BE ONE TO WATCH
AS THE PATTERN LOOKS TO SHIFT BACK...AWAY FROM THE CURRENT COLD
PATTERN TO A WARMER ONE BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
LOCALIZED BRIEF LIFR IN ISOLD HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS...BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS W MA AND N
CT TOWARD 12Z WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWER CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WOULD RESULT IN BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR. NW GUSTS TO 25-30 KT
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE
EVENING...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

FRI NIGHT INTO SUN...
MAINLY VFR INLAND...BUT SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER CAPE COD DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHSN. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AT TIMES...20-30 KT POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
VERY COLD CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS TODAY. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL
WILL KEEP SEAS BETWEEN 3 AND 6 FEET ACROSS OUR OUTER-WATERS AND
WESTERN SOUNDS TODAY...SO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED ON THE OPEN WATERS ALONG WITH 3 TO 6 FOOT SEAS.  SCA
HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  STRONG COLD FRONT WORKS
ACROSS THE REGION AND WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 35 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SOUNDINGS
AND 850T DROPPING TO NEAR -20C.  GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR OUR OPEN WATERS WITH SCA
HEADLINES FOR BOSTON HARBOR/NARR BAY.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THU NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...GIVING WAY TO SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD WINDS AND SEAS BY
EARLY MORNING. SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRES WILL LEAD TO CONDITIONS DROPPING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS BRIEFLY. OTHERWISE COLD CONDITIONS.

SAT AND SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
NW WINDS MAY GUST TO GALE FORCE AT TIMES EACH DAY...BUT ESPECIALLY
SAT. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY COLD AIR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING SPRAY...WHICH COULD BE MODERATE AT TIMES. EVEN IF WINDS
DON/T FULLY REACH GALE FORCE...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AS SEAS BUILD AND APPROACH 6-9 FT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY




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