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000
FXUS61 KBOX 301050
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
650 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
A BRIEF SHOWER TODAY...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER TUESDAY...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST...BEFORE HOT WEATHER
RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
650 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TODAY
AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. WE EXPECT
PARTIAL SUNSHINE AT TIMES BUT ALSO MOCLDY PERIODS. MODELS DO SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5" AND
KI VALUES INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 30S BUT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...CANT RULE OUT A
FEW BRIEF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE
AXIS AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO SNE BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIMITED. WE HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15C. COOLER TEMPS IMMEDIATE
SOUTH COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH DEWPOINTS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THETA-E RIDGE AND KI AXIS WILL BE ACROSS SNE DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING SWD LATE TONIGHT. LOW PROB OF A BRIEF
SHOWER IN THE EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY. THERE IS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER FOR MOCLDY SKIES WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A MID NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN
THE 60S...AND NEAR 70 BOS/PVD AND COASTAL LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS SE
ACROSS MARITIMES WITH COLD FRONT MOVING SWD INTO MAINE. MODELS
SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...BUT LOTS OF MID LEVEL DRY
AIR AND LOWER KI VALUES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH SO IT SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH PT-MOSUNNY SKIES. 850 MB TEMPS 16-17C AND W/NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO APPROACH 90 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...A BIT COOLER NEAR THE S COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HOT AND DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF WEEK
* BRIEF COOL DOWNS MAINLY IN EASTERN MA TUE AND AGAIN FRI

DETAILS...

ENSEMBLES AND 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO GIVE US HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER EASTERN STATES THIS WEEK...
RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO BE WED AND THU WHEN HIGHS
SHOULD REACH WELL INTO 80S WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS PARTS OF CT AND
FROM MERRIMACK VALLEY INTO INTERIOR SE MA. NOT LOOKING FOR
OPPRESSIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS AS MEAN FLOW SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS IN
60S ALTHOUGH THEY WILL APPROACH 70 NEAR S COAST...CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS LATER IN WEEK.

MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST ARE A COUPLE OF BACKDOOR FRONTS WHICH WILL
BRING SLIGHT COOLING TO E MA COAST. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING OF FIRST FRONT TUE...WHICH EVENTUALLY LIFTS BACK N TUE
NIGHT AND WED. 2M TEMPERATURES SUGGEST IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SHOULD
STAY CLOSER TO 80...WHILE HIGHS REACH UPPER 80S IN W NEW ENGLAND.
RISING HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD ACT TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

TIMING OF SECOND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS LESS CERTAIN BUT LOOKS TO BE
CLOSER TO LATE THU OR FRI. THIS TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SO KEPT THAT MENTION PER MODEL
CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN FACT RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT FARTHER S
AND W OF REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY.

PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL LIFT BY 13Z. OTHERWISE VFR
TODAY WITH CIGS AOA 060 AND BRIEF SPRINKLE POSSIBLE. LOCAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MON IN PATCHY VALLEY
FOG. VFR MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN EARLY MORNING PATCHY VALLEY FOG. ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTM POSSIBLE THU.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY SW WINDS 10-20 KT EXPECTED WITH SEAS
BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MOST OF WEEK. BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS EXPECTED
TO DROP S ACROSS WATERS TUE AND AGAIN LATE THU...SHIFTING WINDS TO
E/NE MAINLY ON E MA WATERS...BUT DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC/JWD
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...KJC/JWD
MARINE...KJC/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301050
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
650 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
A BRIEF SHOWER TODAY...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER TUESDAY...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST...BEFORE HOT WEATHER
RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
650 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TODAY
AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. WE EXPECT
PARTIAL SUNSHINE AT TIMES BUT ALSO MOCLDY PERIODS. MODELS DO SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5" AND
KI VALUES INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 30S BUT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...CANT RULE OUT A
FEW BRIEF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE
AXIS AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO SNE BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIMITED. WE HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15C. COOLER TEMPS IMMEDIATE
SOUTH COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH DEWPOINTS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THETA-E RIDGE AND KI AXIS WILL BE ACROSS SNE DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING SWD LATE TONIGHT. LOW PROB OF A BRIEF
SHOWER IN THE EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY. THERE IS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER FOR MOCLDY SKIES WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A MID NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN
THE 60S...AND NEAR 70 BOS/PVD AND COASTAL LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS SE
ACROSS MARITIMES WITH COLD FRONT MOVING SWD INTO MAINE. MODELS
SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...BUT LOTS OF MID LEVEL DRY
AIR AND LOWER KI VALUES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH SO IT SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH PT-MOSUNNY SKIES. 850 MB TEMPS 16-17C AND W/NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO APPROACH 90 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...A BIT COOLER NEAR THE S COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HOT AND DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF WEEK
* BRIEF COOL DOWNS MAINLY IN EASTERN MA TUE AND AGAIN FRI

DETAILS...

ENSEMBLES AND 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO GIVE US HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER EASTERN STATES THIS WEEK...
RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO BE WED AND THU WHEN HIGHS
SHOULD REACH WELL INTO 80S WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS PARTS OF CT AND
FROM MERRIMACK VALLEY INTO INTERIOR SE MA. NOT LOOKING FOR
OPPRESSIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS AS MEAN FLOW SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS IN
60S ALTHOUGH THEY WILL APPROACH 70 NEAR S COAST...CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS LATER IN WEEK.

MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST ARE A COUPLE OF BACKDOOR FRONTS WHICH WILL
BRING SLIGHT COOLING TO E MA COAST. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING OF FIRST FRONT TUE...WHICH EVENTUALLY LIFTS BACK N TUE
NIGHT AND WED. 2M TEMPERATURES SUGGEST IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SHOULD
STAY CLOSER TO 80...WHILE HIGHS REACH UPPER 80S IN W NEW ENGLAND.
RISING HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD ACT TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

TIMING OF SECOND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS LESS CERTAIN BUT LOOKS TO BE
CLOSER TO LATE THU OR FRI. THIS TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SO KEPT THAT MENTION PER MODEL
CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN FACT RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT FARTHER S
AND W OF REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY.

PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL LIFT BY 13Z. OTHERWISE VFR
TODAY WITH CIGS AOA 060 AND BRIEF SPRINKLE POSSIBLE. LOCAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MON IN PATCHY VALLEY
FOG. VFR MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN EARLY MORNING PATCHY VALLEY FOG. ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTM POSSIBLE THU.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY SW WINDS 10-20 KT EXPECTED WITH SEAS
BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MOST OF WEEK. BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS EXPECTED
TO DROP S ACROSS WATERS TUE AND AGAIN LATE THU...SHIFTING WINDS TO
E/NE MAINLY ON E MA WATERS...BUT DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC/JWD
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...KJC/JWD
MARINE...KJC/JWD



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000
FXUS61 KGYX 300951
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
551 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE THE REGION WILL SEE A COUPLE FRONTAL PASSAGES...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK...WITH AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING HUMIDITY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD BE QUITE HOT FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER. A COLD FRONT COULD COOL US DOWN BY LATE
WEEK...BUT SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

0545 AM UPDATE...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST.
WITH CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY...CHANCES
FOR FOG HAVE DIMINISHED...SO HAVE REMOVED EARLY MORNING FOG FROM
FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUDS, TEMPS, AND
DEW POINTS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING
PRODUCING MOSTLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. RADAR SHOWING
SOME PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER GROUND-BASED REPORTS INDICATE THAT
THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND IN MOST AREAS. FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING, THERE COULD BE A WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE. LATER THIS MORNING THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS RISING INTO
THE 80S MOST AREAS. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ANY SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK TODAY.

CURRENTLY CLOUDS ARE LIMITING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG IN CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY BEFORE DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE COOLER VALLEYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND WILL PRODUCE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE FRONT PASSES. HOWEVER...THE FRONT ISN`T
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION...AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE DROP
IN THE TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY HOWEVER...WITH SOME LOWERING OF
THE HUMIDITY AS WELL AFTER A RATHER WARM START TO THE WORKWEEK.
WESTERLY GRADIENT WEAKENS RATHER QUICKLY...ALLOWING ONSHORE WINDS
TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY COOL ALONG
THE SHORELINE TOWNS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SITUATED OVER MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE ON THURSDAY....BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. CAPE VALUES APPROACH 1000 J/KG
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COASTAL
COMMUNITIES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY...EXCEPT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO PRODUCE
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT FAVORED LOCATIONS. THERE MAY BE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...JENSENIUS
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON/JENSENIUS
MARINE...CANNON/JENSENIUS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 300951
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
551 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE THE REGION WILL SEE A COUPLE FRONTAL PASSAGES...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK...WITH AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING HUMIDITY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD BE QUITE HOT FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER. A COLD FRONT COULD COOL US DOWN BY LATE
WEEK...BUT SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

0545 AM UPDATE...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST.
WITH CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY...CHANCES
FOR FOG HAVE DIMINISHED...SO HAVE REMOVED EARLY MORNING FOG FROM
FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUDS, TEMPS, AND
DEW POINTS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING
PRODUCING MOSTLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. RADAR SHOWING
SOME PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER GROUND-BASED REPORTS INDICATE THAT
THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND IN MOST AREAS. FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING, THERE COULD BE A WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE. LATER THIS MORNING THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS RISING INTO
THE 80S MOST AREAS. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ANY SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK TODAY.

CURRENTLY CLOUDS ARE LIMITING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG IN CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY BEFORE DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE COOLER VALLEYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND WILL PRODUCE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE FRONT PASSES. HOWEVER...THE FRONT ISN`T
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION...AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE DROP
IN THE TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY HOWEVER...WITH SOME LOWERING OF
THE HUMIDITY AS WELL AFTER A RATHER WARM START TO THE WORKWEEK.
WESTERLY GRADIENT WEAKENS RATHER QUICKLY...ALLOWING ONSHORE WINDS
TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY COOL ALONG
THE SHORELINE TOWNS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SITUATED OVER MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE ON THURSDAY....BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. CAPE VALUES APPROACH 1000 J/KG
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COASTAL
COMMUNITIES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY...EXCEPT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO PRODUCE
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT FAVORED LOCATIONS. THERE MAY BE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...JENSENIUS
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON/JENSENIUS
MARINE...CANNON/JENSENIUS



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300712
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
312 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
A BRIEF SHOWER TODAY...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER TUESDAY...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST...BEFORE HOT WEATHER
RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TODAY
AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. WE EXPECT
PARTIAL SUNSHINE AT TIMES BUT ALSO MOCLDY PERIODS. MODELS DO SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5" AND
KI VALUES INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 30S BUT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...CANT RULE OUT A
FEW BRIEF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE
AXIS AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO SNE BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIMITED. WE HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15C. COOLER TEMPS IMMEDIATE
SOUTH COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH DEWPOINTS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THETA-E RIDGE AND KI AXIS WILL BE ACROSS SNE DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING SWD LATE TONIGHT. LOW PROB OF A BRIEF
SHOWER IN THE EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY. THERE IS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER FOR MOCLDY SKIES WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A MID NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN
THE 60S...AND NEAR 70 BOS/PVD AND COASTAL LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS SE
ACROSS MARITIMES WITH COLD FRONT MOVING SWD INTO MAINE. MODELS
SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...BUT LOTS OF MID LEVEL DRY
AIR AND LOWER KI VALUES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH SO IT SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH PT-MOSUNNY SKIES. 850 MB TEMPS 16-17C AND W/NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO APPROACH 90 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...A BIT COOLER NEAR THE S COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HOT AND DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF WEEK
* BRIEF COOL DOWNS MAINLY IN EASTERN MA TUE AND AGAIN FRI

DETAILS...

ENSEMBLES AND 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO GIVE US HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER EASTERN STATES THIS WEEK...
RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO BE WED AND THU WHEN HIGHS
SHOULD REACH WELL INTO 80S WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS PARTS OF CT AND
FROM MERRIMACK VALLEY INTO INTERIOR SE MA. NOT LOOKING FOR
OPPRESSIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS AS MEAN FLOW SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS IN
60S ALTHOUGH THEY WILL APPROACH 70 NEAR S COAST...CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS LATER IN WEEK.

MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST ARE A COUPLE OF BACKDOOR FRONTS WHICH WILL
BRING SLIGHT COOLING TO E MA COAST. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING OF FIRST FRONT TUE...WHICH EVENTUALLY LIFTS BACK N TUE
NIGHT AND WED. 2M TEMPERATURES SUGGEST IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SHOULD
STAY CLOSER TO 80...WHILE HIGHS REACH UPPER 80S IN W NEW ENGLAND.
RISING HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD ACT TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

TIMING OF SECOND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS LESS CERTAIN BUT LOOKS TO BE
CLOSER TO LATE THU OR FRI. THIS TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SO KEPT THAT MENTION PER MODEL
CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN FACT RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT FARTHER S
AND W OF REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR...BUT LOCALIZED MVFR FOG POSSIBLE IN
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

TODAY... VFR WITH MID LEVEL CIGS. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN EARLY MORNING PATCHY VALLEY FOG. ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTM POSSIBLE THU.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY SW WINDS 10-20 KT EXPECTED WITH SEAS
BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MOST OF WEEK. BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS EXPECTED
TO DROP S ACROSS WATERS TUE AND AGAIN LATE THU...SHIFTING WINDS TO
E/NE MAINLY ON E MA WATERS...BUT DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/JWD
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...KJC/JWD
MARINE...KJC/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300712
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
312 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
A BRIEF SHOWER TODAY...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER TUESDAY...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST...BEFORE HOT WEATHER
RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TODAY
AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. WE EXPECT
PARTIAL SUNSHINE AT TIMES BUT ALSO MOCLDY PERIODS. MODELS DO SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5" AND
KI VALUES INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 30S BUT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...CANT RULE OUT A
FEW BRIEF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE
AXIS AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO SNE BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIMITED. WE HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15C. COOLER TEMPS IMMEDIATE
SOUTH COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH DEWPOINTS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THETA-E RIDGE AND KI AXIS WILL BE ACROSS SNE DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING SWD LATE TONIGHT. LOW PROB OF A BRIEF
SHOWER IN THE EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY. THERE IS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER FOR MOCLDY SKIES WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A MID NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN
THE 60S...AND NEAR 70 BOS/PVD AND COASTAL LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS SE
ACROSS MARITIMES WITH COLD FRONT MOVING SWD INTO MAINE. MODELS
SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...BUT LOTS OF MID LEVEL DRY
AIR AND LOWER KI VALUES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH SO IT SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH PT-MOSUNNY SKIES. 850 MB TEMPS 16-17C AND W/NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO APPROACH 90 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...A BIT COOLER NEAR THE S COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HOT AND DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF WEEK
* BRIEF COOL DOWNS MAINLY IN EASTERN MA TUE AND AGAIN FRI

DETAILS...

ENSEMBLES AND 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO GIVE US HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER EASTERN STATES THIS WEEK...
RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO BE WED AND THU WHEN HIGHS
SHOULD REACH WELL INTO 80S WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS PARTS OF CT AND
FROM MERRIMACK VALLEY INTO INTERIOR SE MA. NOT LOOKING FOR
OPPRESSIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS AS MEAN FLOW SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS IN
60S ALTHOUGH THEY WILL APPROACH 70 NEAR S COAST...CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS LATER IN WEEK.

MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST ARE A COUPLE OF BACKDOOR FRONTS WHICH WILL
BRING SLIGHT COOLING TO E MA COAST. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING OF FIRST FRONT TUE...WHICH EVENTUALLY LIFTS BACK N TUE
NIGHT AND WED. 2M TEMPERATURES SUGGEST IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SHOULD
STAY CLOSER TO 80...WHILE HIGHS REACH UPPER 80S IN W NEW ENGLAND.
RISING HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD ACT TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

TIMING OF SECOND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS LESS CERTAIN BUT LOOKS TO BE
CLOSER TO LATE THU OR FRI. THIS TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SO KEPT THAT MENTION PER MODEL
CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN FACT RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT FARTHER S
AND W OF REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR...BUT LOCALIZED MVFR FOG POSSIBLE IN
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

TODAY... VFR WITH MID LEVEL CIGS. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN EARLY MORNING PATCHY VALLEY FOG. ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTM POSSIBLE THU.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY SW WINDS 10-20 KT EXPECTED WITH SEAS
BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MOST OF WEEK. BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS EXPECTED
TO DROP S ACROSS WATERS TUE AND AGAIN LATE THU...SHIFTING WINDS TO
E/NE MAINLY ON E MA WATERS...BUT DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/JWD
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...KJC/JWD
MARINE...KJC/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300712
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
312 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
A BRIEF SHOWER TODAY...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER TUESDAY...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST...BEFORE HOT WEATHER
RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TODAY
AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. WE EXPECT
PARTIAL SUNSHINE AT TIMES BUT ALSO MOCLDY PERIODS. MODELS DO SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5" AND
KI VALUES INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 30S BUT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...CANT RULE OUT A
FEW BRIEF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE
AXIS AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO SNE BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIMITED. WE HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15C. COOLER TEMPS IMMEDIATE
SOUTH COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH DEWPOINTS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THETA-E RIDGE AND KI AXIS WILL BE ACROSS SNE DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING SWD LATE TONIGHT. LOW PROB OF A BRIEF
SHOWER IN THE EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY. THERE IS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER FOR MOCLDY SKIES WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A MID NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN
THE 60S...AND NEAR 70 BOS/PVD AND COASTAL LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS SE
ACROSS MARITIMES WITH COLD FRONT MOVING SWD INTO MAINE. MODELS
SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...BUT LOTS OF MID LEVEL DRY
AIR AND LOWER KI VALUES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH SO IT SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH PT-MOSUNNY SKIES. 850 MB TEMPS 16-17C AND W/NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO APPROACH 90 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...A BIT COOLER NEAR THE S COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HOT AND DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF WEEK
* BRIEF COOL DOWNS MAINLY IN EASTERN MA TUE AND AGAIN FRI

DETAILS...

ENSEMBLES AND 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO GIVE US HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER EASTERN STATES THIS WEEK...
RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO BE WED AND THU WHEN HIGHS
SHOULD REACH WELL INTO 80S WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS PARTS OF CT AND
FROM MERRIMACK VALLEY INTO INTERIOR SE MA. NOT LOOKING FOR
OPPRESSIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS AS MEAN FLOW SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS IN
60S ALTHOUGH THEY WILL APPROACH 70 NEAR S COAST...CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS LATER IN WEEK.

MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST ARE A COUPLE OF BACKDOOR FRONTS WHICH WILL
BRING SLIGHT COOLING TO E MA COAST. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING OF FIRST FRONT TUE...WHICH EVENTUALLY LIFTS BACK N TUE
NIGHT AND WED. 2M TEMPERATURES SUGGEST IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SHOULD
STAY CLOSER TO 80...WHILE HIGHS REACH UPPER 80S IN W NEW ENGLAND.
RISING HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD ACT TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

TIMING OF SECOND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS LESS CERTAIN BUT LOOKS TO BE
CLOSER TO LATE THU OR FRI. THIS TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SO KEPT THAT MENTION PER MODEL
CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN FACT RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT FARTHER S
AND W OF REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR...BUT LOCALIZED MVFR FOG POSSIBLE IN
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

TODAY... VFR WITH MID LEVEL CIGS. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN EARLY MORNING PATCHY VALLEY FOG. ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTM POSSIBLE THU.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY SW WINDS 10-20 KT EXPECTED WITH SEAS
BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MOST OF WEEK. BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS EXPECTED
TO DROP S ACROSS WATERS TUE AND AGAIN LATE THU...SHIFTING WINDS TO
E/NE MAINLY ON E MA WATERS...BUT DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/JWD
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...KJC/JWD
MARINE...KJC/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300712
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
312 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
A BRIEF SHOWER TODAY...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER TUESDAY...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST...BEFORE HOT WEATHER
RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TODAY
AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. WE EXPECT
PARTIAL SUNSHINE AT TIMES BUT ALSO MOCLDY PERIODS. MODELS DO SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5" AND
KI VALUES INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 30S BUT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...CANT RULE OUT A
FEW BRIEF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE
AXIS AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO SNE BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIMITED. WE HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15C. COOLER TEMPS IMMEDIATE
SOUTH COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH DEWPOINTS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THETA-E RIDGE AND KI AXIS WILL BE ACROSS SNE DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING SWD LATE TONIGHT. LOW PROB OF A BRIEF
SHOWER IN THE EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY. THERE IS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER FOR MOCLDY SKIES WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A MID NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN
THE 60S...AND NEAR 70 BOS/PVD AND COASTAL LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS SE
ACROSS MARITIMES WITH COLD FRONT MOVING SWD INTO MAINE. MODELS
SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...BUT LOTS OF MID LEVEL DRY
AIR AND LOWER KI VALUES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH SO IT SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH PT-MOSUNNY SKIES. 850 MB TEMPS 16-17C AND W/NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO APPROACH 90 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...A BIT COOLER NEAR THE S COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HOT AND DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF WEEK
* BRIEF COOL DOWNS MAINLY IN EASTERN MA TUE AND AGAIN FRI

DETAILS...

ENSEMBLES AND 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO GIVE US HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER EASTERN STATES THIS WEEK...
RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO BE WED AND THU WHEN HIGHS
SHOULD REACH WELL INTO 80S WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS PARTS OF CT AND
FROM MERRIMACK VALLEY INTO INTERIOR SE MA. NOT LOOKING FOR
OPPRESSIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS AS MEAN FLOW SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS IN
60S ALTHOUGH THEY WILL APPROACH 70 NEAR S COAST...CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS LATER IN WEEK.

MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST ARE A COUPLE OF BACKDOOR FRONTS WHICH WILL
BRING SLIGHT COOLING TO E MA COAST. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING OF FIRST FRONT TUE...WHICH EVENTUALLY LIFTS BACK N TUE
NIGHT AND WED. 2M TEMPERATURES SUGGEST IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SHOULD
STAY CLOSER TO 80...WHILE HIGHS REACH UPPER 80S IN W NEW ENGLAND.
RISING HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD ACT TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

TIMING OF SECOND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS LESS CERTAIN BUT LOOKS TO BE
CLOSER TO LATE THU OR FRI. THIS TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SO KEPT THAT MENTION PER MODEL
CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN FACT RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT FARTHER S
AND W OF REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR...BUT LOCALIZED MVFR FOG POSSIBLE IN
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

TODAY... VFR WITH MID LEVEL CIGS. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN EARLY MORNING PATCHY VALLEY FOG. ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTM POSSIBLE THU.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY SW WINDS 10-20 KT EXPECTED WITH SEAS
BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MOST OF WEEK. BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS EXPECTED
TO DROP S ACROSS WATERS TUE AND AGAIN LATE THU...SHIFTING WINDS TO
E/NE MAINLY ON E MA WATERS...BUT DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/JWD
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...KJC/JWD
MARINE...KJC/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300712
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
312 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
A BRIEF SHOWER TODAY...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER TUESDAY...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST...BEFORE HOT WEATHER
RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TODAY
AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. WE EXPECT
PARTIAL SUNSHINE AT TIMES BUT ALSO MOCLDY PERIODS. MODELS DO SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5" AND
KI VALUES INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 30S BUT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...CANT RULE OUT A
FEW BRIEF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE
AXIS AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO SNE BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIMITED. WE HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15C. COOLER TEMPS IMMEDIATE
SOUTH COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH DEWPOINTS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THETA-E RIDGE AND KI AXIS WILL BE ACROSS SNE DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING SWD LATE TONIGHT. LOW PROB OF A BRIEF
SHOWER IN THE EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY. THERE IS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER FOR MOCLDY SKIES WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A MID NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN
THE 60S...AND NEAR 70 BOS/PVD AND COASTAL LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS SE
ACROSS MARITIMES WITH COLD FRONT MOVING SWD INTO MAINE. MODELS
SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...BUT LOTS OF MID LEVEL DRY
AIR AND LOWER KI VALUES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH SO IT SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH PT-MOSUNNY SKIES. 850 MB TEMPS 16-17C AND W/NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO APPROACH 90 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...A BIT COOLER NEAR THE S COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HOT AND DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF WEEK
* BRIEF COOL DOWNS MAINLY IN EASTERN MA TUE AND AGAIN FRI

DETAILS...

ENSEMBLES AND 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO GIVE US HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER EASTERN STATES THIS WEEK...
RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO BE WED AND THU WHEN HIGHS
SHOULD REACH WELL INTO 80S WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS PARTS OF CT AND
FROM MERRIMACK VALLEY INTO INTERIOR SE MA. NOT LOOKING FOR
OPPRESSIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS AS MEAN FLOW SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS IN
60S ALTHOUGH THEY WILL APPROACH 70 NEAR S COAST...CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS LATER IN WEEK.

MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST ARE A COUPLE OF BACKDOOR FRONTS WHICH WILL
BRING SLIGHT COOLING TO E MA COAST. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING OF FIRST FRONT TUE...WHICH EVENTUALLY LIFTS BACK N TUE
NIGHT AND WED. 2M TEMPERATURES SUGGEST IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SHOULD
STAY CLOSER TO 80...WHILE HIGHS REACH UPPER 80S IN W NEW ENGLAND.
RISING HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD ACT TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

TIMING OF SECOND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS LESS CERTAIN BUT LOOKS TO BE
CLOSER TO LATE THU OR FRI. THIS TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SO KEPT THAT MENTION PER MODEL
CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN FACT RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT FARTHER S
AND W OF REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR...BUT LOCALIZED MVFR FOG POSSIBLE IN
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

TODAY... VFR WITH MID LEVEL CIGS. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN EARLY MORNING PATCHY VALLEY FOG. ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTM POSSIBLE THU.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY SW WINDS 10-20 KT EXPECTED WITH SEAS
BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MOST OF WEEK. BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS EXPECTED
TO DROP S ACROSS WATERS TUE AND AGAIN LATE THU...SHIFTING WINDS TO
E/NE MAINLY ON E MA WATERS...BUT DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/JWD
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...KJC/JWD
MARINE...KJC/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300712
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
312 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
A BRIEF SHOWER TODAY...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER TUESDAY...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST...BEFORE HOT WEATHER
RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TODAY
AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. WE EXPECT
PARTIAL SUNSHINE AT TIMES BUT ALSO MOCLDY PERIODS. MODELS DO SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5" AND
KI VALUES INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 30S BUT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...CANT RULE OUT A
FEW BRIEF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE
AXIS AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO SNE BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIMITED. WE HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15C. COOLER TEMPS IMMEDIATE
SOUTH COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH DEWPOINTS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THETA-E RIDGE AND KI AXIS WILL BE ACROSS SNE DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING SWD LATE TONIGHT. LOW PROB OF A BRIEF
SHOWER IN THE EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY. THERE IS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER FOR MOCLDY SKIES WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A MID NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN
THE 60S...AND NEAR 70 BOS/PVD AND COASTAL LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS SE
ACROSS MARITIMES WITH COLD FRONT MOVING SWD INTO MAINE. MODELS
SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...BUT LOTS OF MID LEVEL DRY
AIR AND LOWER KI VALUES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH SO IT SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH PT-MOSUNNY SKIES. 850 MB TEMPS 16-17C AND W/NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO APPROACH 90 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...A BIT COOLER NEAR THE S COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HOT AND DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF WEEK
* BRIEF COOL DOWNS MAINLY IN EASTERN MA TUE AND AGAIN FRI

DETAILS...

ENSEMBLES AND 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO GIVE US HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER EASTERN STATES THIS WEEK...
RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO BE WED AND THU WHEN HIGHS
SHOULD REACH WELL INTO 80S WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS PARTS OF CT AND
FROM MERRIMACK VALLEY INTO INTERIOR SE MA. NOT LOOKING FOR
OPPRESSIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS AS MEAN FLOW SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS IN
60S ALTHOUGH THEY WILL APPROACH 70 NEAR S COAST...CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS LATER IN WEEK.

MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST ARE A COUPLE OF BACKDOOR FRONTS WHICH WILL
BRING SLIGHT COOLING TO E MA COAST. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING OF FIRST FRONT TUE...WHICH EVENTUALLY LIFTS BACK N TUE
NIGHT AND WED. 2M TEMPERATURES SUGGEST IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SHOULD
STAY CLOSER TO 80...WHILE HIGHS REACH UPPER 80S IN W NEW ENGLAND.
RISING HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD ACT TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

TIMING OF SECOND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS LESS CERTAIN BUT LOOKS TO BE
CLOSER TO LATE THU OR FRI. THIS TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SO KEPT THAT MENTION PER MODEL
CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN FACT RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT FARTHER S
AND W OF REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR...BUT LOCALIZED MVFR FOG POSSIBLE IN
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

TODAY... VFR WITH MID LEVEL CIGS. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN EARLY MORNING PATCHY VALLEY FOG. ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTM POSSIBLE THU.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY SW WINDS 10-20 KT EXPECTED WITH SEAS
BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MOST OF WEEK. BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS EXPECTED
TO DROP S ACROSS WATERS TUE AND AGAIN LATE THU...SHIFTING WINDS TO
E/NE MAINLY ON E MA WATERS...BUT DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/JWD
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...KJC/JWD
MARINE...KJC/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300712
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
312 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
A BRIEF SHOWER TODAY...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER TUESDAY...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST...BEFORE HOT WEATHER
RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TODAY
AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. WE EXPECT
PARTIAL SUNSHINE AT TIMES BUT ALSO MOCLDY PERIODS. MODELS DO SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5" AND
KI VALUES INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 30S BUT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...CANT RULE OUT A
FEW BRIEF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE
AXIS AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO SNE BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIMITED. WE HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15C. COOLER TEMPS IMMEDIATE
SOUTH COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH DEWPOINTS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THETA-E RIDGE AND KI AXIS WILL BE ACROSS SNE DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING SWD LATE TONIGHT. LOW PROB OF A BRIEF
SHOWER IN THE EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY. THERE IS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER FOR MOCLDY SKIES WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A MID NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN
THE 60S...AND NEAR 70 BOS/PVD AND COASTAL LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS SE
ACROSS MARITIMES WITH COLD FRONT MOVING SWD INTO MAINE. MODELS
SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...BUT LOTS OF MID LEVEL DRY
AIR AND LOWER KI VALUES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH SO IT SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH PT-MOSUNNY SKIES. 850 MB TEMPS 16-17C AND W/NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO APPROACH 90 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...A BIT COOLER NEAR THE S COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HOT AND DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF WEEK
* BRIEF COOL DOWNS MAINLY IN EASTERN MA TUE AND AGAIN FRI

DETAILS...

ENSEMBLES AND 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO GIVE US HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER EASTERN STATES THIS WEEK...
RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO BE WED AND THU WHEN HIGHS
SHOULD REACH WELL INTO 80S WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS PARTS OF CT AND
FROM MERRIMACK VALLEY INTO INTERIOR SE MA. NOT LOOKING FOR
OPPRESSIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS AS MEAN FLOW SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS IN
60S ALTHOUGH THEY WILL APPROACH 70 NEAR S COAST...CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS LATER IN WEEK.

MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST ARE A COUPLE OF BACKDOOR FRONTS WHICH WILL
BRING SLIGHT COOLING TO E MA COAST. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING OF FIRST FRONT TUE...WHICH EVENTUALLY LIFTS BACK N TUE
NIGHT AND WED. 2M TEMPERATURES SUGGEST IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SHOULD
STAY CLOSER TO 80...WHILE HIGHS REACH UPPER 80S IN W NEW ENGLAND.
RISING HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD ACT TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

TIMING OF SECOND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS LESS CERTAIN BUT LOOKS TO BE
CLOSER TO LATE THU OR FRI. THIS TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SO KEPT THAT MENTION PER MODEL
CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN FACT RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT FARTHER S
AND W OF REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR...BUT LOCALIZED MVFR FOG POSSIBLE IN
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

TODAY... VFR WITH MID LEVEL CIGS. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN EARLY MORNING PATCHY VALLEY FOG. ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTM POSSIBLE THU.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY SW WINDS 10-20 KT EXPECTED WITH SEAS
BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MOST OF WEEK. BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS EXPECTED
TO DROP S ACROSS WATERS TUE AND AGAIN LATE THU...SHIFTING WINDS TO
E/NE MAINLY ON E MA WATERS...BUT DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/JWD
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...KJC/JWD
MARINE...KJC/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300712
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
312 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
A BRIEF SHOWER TODAY...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER TUESDAY...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST...BEFORE HOT WEATHER
RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TODAY
AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. WE EXPECT
PARTIAL SUNSHINE AT TIMES BUT ALSO MOCLDY PERIODS. MODELS DO SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5" AND
KI VALUES INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 30S BUT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...CANT RULE OUT A
FEW BRIEF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE
AXIS AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO SNE BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIMITED. WE HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15C. COOLER TEMPS IMMEDIATE
SOUTH COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH DEWPOINTS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THETA-E RIDGE AND KI AXIS WILL BE ACROSS SNE DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING SWD LATE TONIGHT. LOW PROB OF A BRIEF
SHOWER IN THE EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY. THERE IS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER FOR MOCLDY SKIES WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A MID NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN
THE 60S...AND NEAR 70 BOS/PVD AND COASTAL LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS SE
ACROSS MARITIMES WITH COLD FRONT MOVING SWD INTO MAINE. MODELS
SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...BUT LOTS OF MID LEVEL DRY
AIR AND LOWER KI VALUES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH SO IT SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH PT-MOSUNNY SKIES. 850 MB TEMPS 16-17C AND W/NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO APPROACH 90 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...A BIT COOLER NEAR THE S COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HOT AND DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF WEEK
* BRIEF COOL DOWNS MAINLY IN EASTERN MA TUE AND AGAIN FRI

DETAILS...

ENSEMBLES AND 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO GIVE US HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER EASTERN STATES THIS WEEK...
RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO BE WED AND THU WHEN HIGHS
SHOULD REACH WELL INTO 80S WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS PARTS OF CT AND
FROM MERRIMACK VALLEY INTO INTERIOR SE MA. NOT LOOKING FOR
OPPRESSIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS AS MEAN FLOW SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS IN
60S ALTHOUGH THEY WILL APPROACH 70 NEAR S COAST...CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS LATER IN WEEK.

MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST ARE A COUPLE OF BACKDOOR FRONTS WHICH WILL
BRING SLIGHT COOLING TO E MA COAST. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING OF FIRST FRONT TUE...WHICH EVENTUALLY LIFTS BACK N TUE
NIGHT AND WED. 2M TEMPERATURES SUGGEST IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SHOULD
STAY CLOSER TO 80...WHILE HIGHS REACH UPPER 80S IN W NEW ENGLAND.
RISING HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD ACT TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

TIMING OF SECOND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS LESS CERTAIN BUT LOOKS TO BE
CLOSER TO LATE THU OR FRI. THIS TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SO KEPT THAT MENTION PER MODEL
CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN FACT RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT FARTHER S
AND W OF REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR...BUT LOCALIZED MVFR FOG POSSIBLE IN
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

TODAY... VFR WITH MID LEVEL CIGS. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN EARLY MORNING PATCHY VALLEY FOG. ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTM POSSIBLE THU.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY SW WINDS 10-20 KT EXPECTED WITH SEAS
BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MOST OF WEEK. BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS EXPECTED
TO DROP S ACROSS WATERS TUE AND AGAIN LATE THU...SHIFTING WINDS TO
E/NE MAINLY ON E MA WATERS...BUT DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/JWD
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...KJC/JWD
MARINE...KJC/JWD



000
FXUS61 KGYX 300649
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
249 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE THE REGION WILL SEE A COUPLE FRONTAL PASSAGES...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK...WITH AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING HUMIDITY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD BE QUITE HOT FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER. A COLD FRONT COULD COOL US DOWN BY LATE
WEEK...BUT SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING
PRODUCING MOSTLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. RADAR SHOWING
SOME PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER GROUND-BASED REPORTS INDICATE THAT
THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND IN MOST AREAS. FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING, THERE COULD BE A WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE. LATER THIS MORNING THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS RISING INTO
THE 80S MOST AREAS. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ANY SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK TODAY.

CURRENTLY CLOUDS ARE LIMITING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG IN CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY BEFORE DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE COOLER VALLEYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND WILL PRODUCE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE FRONT PASSES. HOWEVER...THE FRONT ISN`T
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION...AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE DROP
IN THE TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY HOWEVER...WITH SOME LOWERING OF
THE HUMIDITY AS WELL AFTER A RATHER WARM START TO THE WORKWEEK.
WESTERLY GRADIENT WEAKENS RATHER QUICKLY...ALLOWING ONSHORE WINDS
TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY COOL ALONG
THE SHORELINE TOWNS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SITUATED OVER MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE ON THURSDAY....BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. CAPE VALUES APPROACH 1000 J/KG
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COASTAL
COMMUNITIES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY...EXCEPT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO PRODUCE
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT FAVORED LOCATIONS. THERE MAY BE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...JENSENIUS
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON/JENSENIUS
MARINE...CANNON/JENSENIUS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 300649
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
249 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE THE REGION WILL SEE A COUPLE FRONTAL PASSAGES...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK...WITH AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING HUMIDITY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD BE QUITE HOT FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER. A COLD FRONT COULD COOL US DOWN BY LATE
WEEK...BUT SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING
PRODUCING MOSTLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. RADAR SHOWING
SOME PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER GROUND-BASED REPORTS INDICATE THAT
THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND IN MOST AREAS. FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING, THERE COULD BE A WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE. LATER THIS MORNING THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS RISING INTO
THE 80S MOST AREAS. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ANY SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK TODAY.

CURRENTLY CLOUDS ARE LIMITING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG IN CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY BEFORE DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE COOLER VALLEYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND WILL PRODUCE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE FRONT PASSES. HOWEVER...THE FRONT ISN`T
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION...AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE DROP
IN THE TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY HOWEVER...WITH SOME LOWERING OF
THE HUMIDITY AS WELL AFTER A RATHER WARM START TO THE WORKWEEK.
WESTERLY GRADIENT WEAKENS RATHER QUICKLY...ALLOWING ONSHORE WINDS
TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY COOL ALONG
THE SHORELINE TOWNS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SITUATED OVER MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE ON THURSDAY....BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. CAPE VALUES APPROACH 1000 J/KG
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COASTAL
COMMUNITIES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY...EXCEPT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO PRODUCE
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT FAVORED LOCATIONS. THERE MAY BE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...JENSENIUS
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON/JENSENIUS
MARINE...CANNON/JENSENIUS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 300649
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
249 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE THE REGION WILL SEE A COUPLE FRONTAL PASSAGES...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK...WITH AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING HUMIDITY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD BE QUITE HOT FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER. A COLD FRONT COULD COOL US DOWN BY LATE
WEEK...BUT SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING
PRODUCING MOSTLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. RADAR SHOWING
SOME PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER GROUND-BASED REPORTS INDICATE THAT
THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND IN MOST AREAS. FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING, THERE COULD BE A WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE. LATER THIS MORNING THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS RISING INTO
THE 80S MOST AREAS. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ANY SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK TODAY.

CURRENTLY CLOUDS ARE LIMITING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG IN CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY BEFORE DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE COOLER VALLEYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND WILL PRODUCE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE FRONT PASSES. HOWEVER...THE FRONT ISN`T
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION...AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE DROP
IN THE TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY HOWEVER...WITH SOME LOWERING OF
THE HUMIDITY AS WELL AFTER A RATHER WARM START TO THE WORKWEEK.
WESTERLY GRADIENT WEAKENS RATHER QUICKLY...ALLOWING ONSHORE WINDS
TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY COOL ALONG
THE SHORELINE TOWNS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SITUATED OVER MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE ON THURSDAY....BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. CAPE VALUES APPROACH 1000 J/KG
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COASTAL
COMMUNITIES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY...EXCEPT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO PRODUCE
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT FAVORED LOCATIONS. THERE MAY BE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...JENSENIUS
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON/JENSENIUS
MARINE...CANNON/JENSENIUS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 300649
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
249 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE THE REGION WILL SEE A COUPLE FRONTAL PASSAGES...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK...WITH AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING HUMIDITY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD BE QUITE HOT FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER. A COLD FRONT COULD COOL US DOWN BY LATE
WEEK...BUT SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING
PRODUCING MOSTLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. RADAR SHOWING
SOME PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER GROUND-BASED REPORTS INDICATE THAT
THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND IN MOST AREAS. FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING, THERE COULD BE A WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE. LATER THIS MORNING THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS RISING INTO
THE 80S MOST AREAS. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ANY SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK TODAY.

CURRENTLY CLOUDS ARE LIMITING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG IN CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY BEFORE DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE COOLER VALLEYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND WILL PRODUCE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE FRONT PASSES. HOWEVER...THE FRONT ISN`T
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION...AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE DROP
IN THE TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY HOWEVER...WITH SOME LOWERING OF
THE HUMIDITY AS WELL AFTER A RATHER WARM START TO THE WORKWEEK.
WESTERLY GRADIENT WEAKENS RATHER QUICKLY...ALLOWING ONSHORE WINDS
TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY COOL ALONG
THE SHORELINE TOWNS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SITUATED OVER MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE ON THURSDAY....BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. CAPE VALUES APPROACH 1000 J/KG
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COASTAL
COMMUNITIES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY...EXCEPT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO PRODUCE
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT FAVORED LOCATIONS. THERE MAY BE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...JENSENIUS
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON/JENSENIUS
MARINE...CANNON/JENSENIUS



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300531
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
131 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO
BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BRING
BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AND PERHAPS
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
NUMEROUS MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD SNE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES MILDER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST SO RAISED TEMPS A BIT.
STILL EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG BUT COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE MORE
LIMITED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH MID 60S
BOS/PVD AND CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST INCREASING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION.  WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME DRY AIR AND WE EXPECT
MOST OF THE DAY TO BE DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE LEAVING
ANOTHER NIGHT OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA.  LOW PRESSURE
OVER QUEBEC WILL BRING WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  BUT THE ONLY EVIDENCE OF THIS WILL
BE A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST.  OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF NEXT WEEK
* BRIEF COOL DOWN MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN WEEK
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN CONTROL

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS FROM THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS TO THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS UNUSUALLY HIGH IN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.  OUTSIDE OF ANY
BACKDOOR FRONTS WHICH WILL DISCUSS BELOW...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.  HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO BE WED AND
POSSIBLY THU IF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HOLDS OFF A BIT. ITS POSSIBLE
SOME LOCATIONS SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ON ONE OR BOTH OF THESE DAYS.  THIS TYPE OF FLOW TENDS KEEP
DEWPOINTS BELOW 70...BUT CAN SOMETIMES ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO OVER
ACHIEVE A BIT SO SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO WATCH.

THE ONLY TWO CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS AND THEIR
AFFECTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  MOST GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A HIGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...SENDING A
BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TUE.  MAIN AFFECTS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE PORTIONS OF THE COAST MAY
NOT BREAK 80. WHILE GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE TIMING LATER NEXT WEEK
WEEK...APPEARS WE MAY BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT AND
BRIEF COOL DOWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER.  WE CAN NEVER RULE OUT A SPOT
SHOWER/STORM DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE
BETTER CHANCE LATE IN THE WEEK DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL/POSITION OF
BACKDOOR FRONT THU OR FRI.  BUT AGAIN...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TENDS TO
LIMIT CONVECTION SO NOT SOLD ON ANYTHING YET.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR...BUT LOCALIZED MVFR FOG POSSIBLE IN
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

TODAY... VFR WITH MID LEVEL CIGS. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THEN PERHAPS SOME VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PATCHY GROUND IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS
AND WAVES LOW. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...FRANK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300531
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
131 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO
BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BRING
BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AND PERHAPS
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
NUMEROUS MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD SNE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES MILDER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST SO RAISED TEMPS A BIT.
STILL EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG BUT COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE MORE
LIMITED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH MID 60S
BOS/PVD AND CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST INCREASING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION.  WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME DRY AIR AND WE EXPECT
MOST OF THE DAY TO BE DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE LEAVING
ANOTHER NIGHT OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA.  LOW PRESSURE
OVER QUEBEC WILL BRING WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  BUT THE ONLY EVIDENCE OF THIS WILL
BE A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST.  OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF NEXT WEEK
* BRIEF COOL DOWN MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN WEEK
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN CONTROL

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS FROM THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS TO THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS UNUSUALLY HIGH IN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.  OUTSIDE OF ANY
BACKDOOR FRONTS WHICH WILL DISCUSS BELOW...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.  HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO BE WED AND
POSSIBLY THU IF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HOLDS OFF A BIT. ITS POSSIBLE
SOME LOCATIONS SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ON ONE OR BOTH OF THESE DAYS.  THIS TYPE OF FLOW TENDS KEEP
DEWPOINTS BELOW 70...BUT CAN SOMETIMES ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO OVER
ACHIEVE A BIT SO SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO WATCH.

THE ONLY TWO CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS AND THEIR
AFFECTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  MOST GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A HIGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...SENDING A
BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TUE.  MAIN AFFECTS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE PORTIONS OF THE COAST MAY
NOT BREAK 80. WHILE GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE TIMING LATER NEXT WEEK
WEEK...APPEARS WE MAY BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT AND
BRIEF COOL DOWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER.  WE CAN NEVER RULE OUT A SPOT
SHOWER/STORM DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE
BETTER CHANCE LATE IN THE WEEK DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL/POSITION OF
BACKDOOR FRONT THU OR FRI.  BUT AGAIN...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TENDS TO
LIMIT CONVECTION SO NOT SOLD ON ANYTHING YET.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR...BUT LOCALIZED MVFR FOG POSSIBLE IN
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

TODAY... VFR WITH MID LEVEL CIGS. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THEN PERHAPS SOME VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PATCHY GROUND IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS
AND WAVES LOW. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KGYX 300153 AAC
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
953 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD BE QUITE HOT FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A COLD FRONT COULD COOL US DOWN BY LATE WEEK.
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS NOT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS HAS NOT PRODUCED PRECIPITATION SO FAR
BUT RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR. WILL BE MONITORING THIS
OVERNIGHT... BUT FOR NOW HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS OF NH AND WESTERN MAINE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
FORCING PASSES BY ALOFT.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK SSW TO NNE FLOW ALOFT IS STEERING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THESE
CLOUDS MAY PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION IN A FEW SPOTS BUT IT SEEMS
POSSIBLE WE WILL STILL SEE FOG IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TOWARDS
MORNING. HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. OTHER THAN A PERIOD OF BKN CLOUDS AND A FEW SPOT SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY...WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GET WELL INTO THE 80S. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL COME
THROUGH WITH VERY LITTLE FANFARE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL START TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY WILL BE 10F TO 15F DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY WHEN A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
VALLEY FOG.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO PRODUCE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AT FAVORED LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 KT GUSTS AND 4 FT SEAS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SWLY LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...POHL




000
FXUS61 KGYX 300153 AAC
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
953 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD BE QUITE HOT FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A COLD FRONT COULD COOL US DOWN BY LATE WEEK.
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS NOT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS HAS NOT PRODUCED PRECIPITATION SO FAR
BUT RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR. WILL BE MONITORING THIS
OVERNIGHT... BUT FOR NOW HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS OF NH AND WESTERN MAINE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
FORCING PASSES BY ALOFT.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK SSW TO NNE FLOW ALOFT IS STEERING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THESE
CLOUDS MAY PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION IN A FEW SPOTS BUT IT SEEMS
POSSIBLE WE WILL STILL SEE FOG IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TOWARDS
MORNING. HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. OTHER THAN A PERIOD OF BKN CLOUDS AND A FEW SPOT SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY...WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GET WELL INTO THE 80S. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL COME
THROUGH WITH VERY LITTLE FANFARE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL START TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY WILL BE 10F TO 15F DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY WHEN A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
VALLEY FOG.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO PRODUCE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AT FAVORED LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 KT GUSTS AND 4 FT SEAS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SWLY LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...POHL




000
FXUS61 KGYX 300153 AAC
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
953 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD BE QUITE HOT FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A COLD FRONT COULD COOL US DOWN BY LATE WEEK.
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS NOT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS HAS NOT PRODUCED PRECIPITATION SO FAR
BUT RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR. WILL BE MONITORING THIS
OVERNIGHT... BUT FOR NOW HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS OF NH AND WESTERN MAINE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
FORCING PASSES BY ALOFT.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK SSW TO NNE FLOW ALOFT IS STEERING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THESE
CLOUDS MAY PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION IN A FEW SPOTS BUT IT SEEMS
POSSIBLE WE WILL STILL SEE FOG IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TOWARDS
MORNING. HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. OTHER THAN A PERIOD OF BKN CLOUDS AND A FEW SPOT SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY...WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GET WELL INTO THE 80S. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL COME
THROUGH WITH VERY LITTLE FANFARE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL START TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY WILL BE 10F TO 15F DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY WHEN A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
VALLEY FOG.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO PRODUCE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AT FAVORED LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 KT GUSTS AND 4 FT SEAS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SWLY LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...POHL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300138
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
938 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO
BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BRING
BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AND PERHAPS
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
935 PM UPDATE...
AREA OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS STARTING TO SPILL INTO N MA FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY N ZONES
AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE N...BUT SOME CLOUD COVER WILL SPILL
INTO SOUTHERN AREAS AS WELL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE USUAL SPOTS AS TEMPS COOL DOWN
TO THE DEWPOINTS. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S
IN THE NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE AS WELL
AS THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST INCREASING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION.  WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME DRY AIR AND WE EXPECT
MOST OF THE DAY TO BE DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE LEAVING
ANOTHER NIGHT OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA.  LOW PRESSURE
OVER QUEBEC WILL BRING WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  BUT THE ONLY EVIDENCE OF THIS WILL
BE A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST.  OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF NEXT WEEK
* BRIEF COOL DOWN MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN WEEK
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN CONTROL

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS FROM THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS TO THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS UNUSUALLY HIGH IN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.  OUTSIDE OF ANY
BACKDOOR FRONTS WHICH WILL DISCUSS BELOW...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.  HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO BE WED AND
POSSIBLY THU IF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HOLDS OFF A BIT. ITS POSSIBLE
SOME LOCATIONS SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ON ONE OR BOTH OF THESE DAYS.  THIS TYPE OF FLOW TENDS KEEP
DEWPOINTS BELOW 70...BUT CAN SOMETIMES ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO OVER
ACHIEVE A BIT SO SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO WATCH.

THE ONLY TWO CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS AND THEIR
AFFECTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  MOST GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A HIGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...SENDING A
BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TUE.  MAIN AFFECTS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE PORTIONS OF THE COAST MAY
NOT BREAK 80. WHILE GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE TIMING LATER NEXT WEEK
WEEK...APPEARS WE MAY BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT AND
BRIEF COOL DOWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER.  WE CAN NEVER RULE OUT A SPOT
SHOWER/STORM DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE
BETTER CHANCE LATE IN THE WEEK DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL/POSITION OF
BACKDOOR FRONT THU OR FRI.  BUT AGAIN...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TENDS TO
LIMIT CONVECTION SO NOT SOLD ON ANYTHING YET.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR OTHER THEN VERY LOCALIZED MVFR-IFR
FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS LATE.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN A FEW HIT
OR MISS SHOWERS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR FOG DEVELOPING
AGAIN IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THEN PERHAPS SOME VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PATCHY GROUND IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS
AND WAVES LOW. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 292340
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
740 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO
BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BRING
BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AND PERHAPS
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

740 PM UPDATE...

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE IN SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.  THIS IN RESPONSE TO A
MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR NORTH...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
DRY.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE
USUAL SPOTS AS TEMPS COOL DOWN TO THE DEWPOINTS.  LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLER
OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF
DOWNTOWN BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST INCREASING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION.  WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME DRY AIR AND WE EXPECT
MOST OF THE DAY TO BE DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE LEAVING
ANOTHER NIGHT OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA.  LOW PRESSURE
OVER QUEBEC WILL BRING WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  BUT THE ONLY EVIDENCE OF THIS WILL
BE A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST.  OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF NEXT WEEK
* BRIEF COOL DOWN MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN WEEK
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN CONTROL

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS FROM THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS TO THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS UNUSUALLY HIGH IN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.  OUTSIDE OF ANY
BACKDOOR FRONTS WHICH WILL DISCUSS BELOW...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.  HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO BE WED AND
POSSIBLY THU IF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HOLDS OFF A BIT. ITS POSSIBLE
SOME LOCATIONS SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ON ONE OR BOTH OF THESE DAYS.  THIS TYPE OF FLOW TENDS KEEP
DEWPOINTS BELOW 70...BUT CAN SOMETIMES ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO OVER
ACHIEVE A BIT SO SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO WATCH.

THE ONLY TWO CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS AND THEIR
AFFECTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  MOST GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A HIGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...SENDING A
BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TUE.  MAIN AFFECTS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE PORTIONS OF THE COAST MAY
NOT BREAK 80. WHILE GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE TIMING LATER NEXT WEEK
WEEK...APPEARS WE MAY BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT AND
BRIEF COOL DOWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER.  WE CAN NEVER RULE OUT A SPOT
SHOWER/STORM DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE
BETTER CHANCE LATE IN THE WEEK DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL/POSITION OF
BACKDOOR FRONT THU OR FRI.  BUT AGAIN...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TENDS TO
LIMIT CONVECTION SO NOT SOLD ON ANYTHING YET.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR OTHER THEN VERY LOCALIZED MVFR-IFR
FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS LATE.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN A FEW HIT
OR MISS SHOWERS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR FOG DEVELOPING
AGAIN IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THEN PERHAPS SOME VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PATCHY GROUND IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS
AND WAVES LOW. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...RLG/FRANK
MARINE...RLG/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 292340
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
740 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO
BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BRING
BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AND PERHAPS
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

740 PM UPDATE...

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE IN SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.  THIS IN RESPONSE TO A
MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR NORTH...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
DRY.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE
USUAL SPOTS AS TEMPS COOL DOWN TO THE DEWPOINTS.  LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLER
OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF
DOWNTOWN BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST INCREASING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION.  WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME DRY AIR AND WE EXPECT
MOST OF THE DAY TO BE DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE LEAVING
ANOTHER NIGHT OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA.  LOW PRESSURE
OVER QUEBEC WILL BRING WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  BUT THE ONLY EVIDENCE OF THIS WILL
BE A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST.  OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF NEXT WEEK
* BRIEF COOL DOWN MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN WEEK
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN CONTROL

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS FROM THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS TO THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS UNUSUALLY HIGH IN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.  OUTSIDE OF ANY
BACKDOOR FRONTS WHICH WILL DISCUSS BELOW...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.  HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO BE WED AND
POSSIBLY THU IF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HOLDS OFF A BIT. ITS POSSIBLE
SOME LOCATIONS SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ON ONE OR BOTH OF THESE DAYS.  THIS TYPE OF FLOW TENDS KEEP
DEWPOINTS BELOW 70...BUT CAN SOMETIMES ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO OVER
ACHIEVE A BIT SO SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO WATCH.

THE ONLY TWO CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS AND THEIR
AFFECTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  MOST GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A HIGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...SENDING A
BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TUE.  MAIN AFFECTS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE PORTIONS OF THE COAST MAY
NOT BREAK 80. WHILE GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE TIMING LATER NEXT WEEK
WEEK...APPEARS WE MAY BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT AND
BRIEF COOL DOWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER.  WE CAN NEVER RULE OUT A SPOT
SHOWER/STORM DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE
BETTER CHANCE LATE IN THE WEEK DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL/POSITION OF
BACKDOOR FRONT THU OR FRI.  BUT AGAIN...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TENDS TO
LIMIT CONVECTION SO NOT SOLD ON ANYTHING YET.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR OTHER THEN VERY LOCALIZED MVFR-IFR
FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS LATE.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN A FEW HIT
OR MISS SHOWERS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR FOG DEVELOPING
AGAIN IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THEN PERHAPS SOME VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PATCHY GROUND IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS
AND WAVES LOW. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...RLG/FRANK
MARINE...RLG/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KGYX 292303 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
703 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD BE QUITE HOT FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A COLD FRONT COULD COOL US DOWN BY LATE WEEK.
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS NOT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
WEAK SSW TO NNE FLOW ALOFT IS STEERING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THESE
CLOUDS MAY PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION IN A FEW SPOTS BUT IT SEEMS
POSSIBLE WE WILL STILL SEE FOG IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TOWARDS
MORNING. HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
AND THIS WILL PROBABLY JUST BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER IN THE
MOUNTAINS LATE. OTHERWISE...VALLEY FOG IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED IN
THE NORMALLY VULNERABLE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. OTHER THAN A PERIOD OF BKN CLOUDS AND A FEW SPOT SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY...WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GET WELL INTO THE 80S. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL COME
THROUGH WITH VERY LITTLE FANFARE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL START TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY WILL BE 10F TO 15F DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY WHEN A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
VALLEY FOG.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO PRODUCE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AT FAVORED LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 KT GUSTS AND 4 FT SEAS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SWLY LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...POHL



000
FXUS61 KGYX 292303 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
703 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD BE QUITE HOT FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A COLD FRONT COULD COOL US DOWN BY LATE WEEK.
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS NOT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
WEAK SSW TO NNE FLOW ALOFT IS STEERING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THESE
CLOUDS MAY PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION IN A FEW SPOTS BUT IT SEEMS
POSSIBLE WE WILL STILL SEE FOG IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TOWARDS
MORNING. HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
AND THIS WILL PROBABLY JUST BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER IN THE
MOUNTAINS LATE. OTHERWISE...VALLEY FOG IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED IN
THE NORMALLY VULNERABLE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. OTHER THAN A PERIOD OF BKN CLOUDS AND A FEW SPOT SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY...WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GET WELL INTO THE 80S. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL COME
THROUGH WITH VERY LITTLE FANFARE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL START TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY WILL BE 10F TO 15F DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY WHEN A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
VALLEY FOG.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO PRODUCE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AT FAVORED LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 KT GUSTS AND 4 FT SEAS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SWLY LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...POHL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291925
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
325 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO
BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BRING
BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AND PERHAPS
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE SUN GOES DOWN
TONIGHT.  THIS WILL LEAVE THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
NIGHT.  EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE USUAL SPOTS AS
TEMPS COOL DOWN TO THE DEWPOINTS.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 OUTSIDE THE URBAN CENTERS WHERE TEMPS WILL
STAY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST INCREASING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION.  WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME DRY AIR AND WE EXPECT
MOST OF THE DAY TO BE DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE LEAVING
ANOTHER NIGHT OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA.  LOW PRESSURE
OVER QUEBEC WILL BRING WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  BUT THE ONLY EVIDENCE OF THIS WILL
BE A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST.  OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF NEXT WEEK
* BRIEF COOL DOWN MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN WEEK
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN CONTROL

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS FROM THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS TO THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS UNUSUALLY HIGH IN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.  OUTSIDE OF ANY
BACKDOOR FRONTS WHICH WILL DISCUSS BELOW...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.  HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO BE WED AND
POSSIBLY THU IF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HOLDS OFF A BIT. ITS POSSIBLE
SOME LOCATIONS SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ON ONE OR BOTH OF THESE DAYS.  THIS TYPE OF FLOW TENDS KEEP
DEWPOINTS BELOW 70...BUT CAN SOMETIMES ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO OVER
ACHIEVE A BIT SO SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO WATCH.

THE ONLY TWO CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS AND THEIR
AFFECTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  MOST GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A HIGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...SENDING A
BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TUE.  MAIN AFFECTS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE PORTIONS OF THE COAST MAY
NOT BREAK 80. WHILE GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE TIMING LATER NEXT WEEK
WEEK...APPEARS WE MAY BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT AND
BRIEF COOL DOWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER.  WE CAN NEVER RULE OUT A SPOT
SHOWER/STORM DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE
BETTER CHANCE LATE IN THE WEEK DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT
THU OR FRI.  BUT AGAIN...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TENDS TO LIMIT
CONVECTION SO NOT SOLD ON ANYTHING YET.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN A WEAK SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOCALIZED IFR FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS LATE.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN A FEW HIT
OR MISS SHOWERS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR FOG DEVELOPING
AGAIN IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A FEW HOURS OF A WEAK
SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THEN PERHAPS SOME VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PATCHY GROUND IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS
AND WAVES LOW. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291925
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
325 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO
BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BRING
BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AND PERHAPS
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE SUN GOES DOWN
TONIGHT.  THIS WILL LEAVE THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
NIGHT.  EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE USUAL SPOTS AS
TEMPS COOL DOWN TO THE DEWPOINTS.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 OUTSIDE THE URBAN CENTERS WHERE TEMPS WILL
STAY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST INCREASING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION.  WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME DRY AIR AND WE EXPECT
MOST OF THE DAY TO BE DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE LEAVING
ANOTHER NIGHT OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA.  LOW PRESSURE
OVER QUEBEC WILL BRING WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  BUT THE ONLY EVIDENCE OF THIS WILL
BE A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST.  OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF NEXT WEEK
* BRIEF COOL DOWN MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN WEEK
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN CONTROL

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS FROM THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS TO THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS UNUSUALLY HIGH IN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.  OUTSIDE OF ANY
BACKDOOR FRONTS WHICH WILL DISCUSS BELOW...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.  HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO BE WED AND
POSSIBLY THU IF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HOLDS OFF A BIT. ITS POSSIBLE
SOME LOCATIONS SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ON ONE OR BOTH OF THESE DAYS.  THIS TYPE OF FLOW TENDS KEEP
DEWPOINTS BELOW 70...BUT CAN SOMETIMES ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO OVER
ACHIEVE A BIT SO SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO WATCH.

THE ONLY TWO CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS AND THEIR
AFFECTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  MOST GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A HIGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...SENDING A
BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TUE.  MAIN AFFECTS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE PORTIONS OF THE COAST MAY
NOT BREAK 80. WHILE GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE TIMING LATER NEXT WEEK
WEEK...APPEARS WE MAY BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT AND
BRIEF COOL DOWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER.  WE CAN NEVER RULE OUT A SPOT
SHOWER/STORM DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE
BETTER CHANCE LATE IN THE WEEK DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT
THU OR FRI.  BUT AGAIN...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TENDS TO LIMIT
CONVECTION SO NOT SOLD ON ANYTHING YET.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN A WEAK SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOCALIZED IFR FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS LATE.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN A FEW HIT
OR MISS SHOWERS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR FOG DEVELOPING
AGAIN IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A FEW HOURS OF A WEAK
SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THEN PERHAPS SOME VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PATCHY GROUND IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS
AND WAVES LOW. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KGYX 291838
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
238 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD BE QUITE HOT FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A COLD FRONT COULD COOL US DOWN BY LATE WEEK.
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS NOT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
AND THIS WILL PROBABLY JUST BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER IN THE
MOUNTAINS LATE. OTHERWISE...VALLEY FOG IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED IN
THE NORMALLY VULNERABLE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. OTHER THAN A PERIOD OF BKN CLOUDS AND A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE 80S. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
COME THROUGH WITH VERY LITTLE FANFARE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL START TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY WILL BE 10F TO 15F DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY WHEN A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
VALLEY FOG.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO PRODUCE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AT FAVORED LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 KT GUSTS AND 4 FT SEAS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SWLY LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...POHL



000
FXUS61 KGYX 291838
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
238 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD BE QUITE HOT FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A COLD FRONT COULD COOL US DOWN BY LATE WEEK.
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS NOT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
AND THIS WILL PROBABLY JUST BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER IN THE
MOUNTAINS LATE. OTHERWISE...VALLEY FOG IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED IN
THE NORMALLY VULNERABLE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. OTHER THAN A PERIOD OF BKN CLOUDS AND A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE 80S. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
COME THROUGH WITH VERY LITTLE FANFARE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL START TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY WILL BE 10F TO 15F DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY WHEN A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
VALLEY FOG.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO PRODUCE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AT FAVORED LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 KT GUSTS AND 4 FT SEAS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SWLY LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...POHL



000
FXUS61 KGYX 291838
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
238 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD BE QUITE HOT FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A COLD FRONT COULD COOL US DOWN BY LATE WEEK.
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS NOT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
AND THIS WILL PROBABLY JUST BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER IN THE
MOUNTAINS LATE. OTHERWISE...VALLEY FOG IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED IN
THE NORMALLY VULNERABLE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. OTHER THAN A PERIOD OF BKN CLOUDS AND A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE 80S. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
COME THROUGH WITH VERY LITTLE FANFARE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL START TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY WILL BE 10F TO 15F DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY WHEN A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
VALLEY FOG.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO PRODUCE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AT FAVORED LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 KT GUSTS AND 4 FT SEAS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SWLY LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...POHL



000
FXUS61 KGYX 291838
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
238 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD BE QUITE HOT FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A COLD FRONT COULD COOL US DOWN BY LATE WEEK.
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS NOT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
AND THIS WILL PROBABLY JUST BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER IN THE
MOUNTAINS LATE. OTHERWISE...VALLEY FOG IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED IN
THE NORMALLY VULNERABLE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. OTHER THAN A PERIOD OF BKN CLOUDS AND A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE 80S. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
COME THROUGH WITH VERY LITTLE FANFARE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL START TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY WILL BE 10F TO 15F DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY WHEN A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
VALLEY FOG.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO PRODUCE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AT FAVORED LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 KT GUSTS AND 4 FT SEAS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SWLY LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...POHL



000
FXUS61 KGYX 291838
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
238 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD BE QUITE HOT FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A COLD FRONT COULD COOL US DOWN BY LATE WEEK.
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS NOT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
AND THIS WILL PROBABLY JUST BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER IN THE
MOUNTAINS LATE. OTHERWISE...VALLEY FOG IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED IN
THE NORMALLY VULNERABLE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. OTHER THAN A PERIOD OF BKN CLOUDS AND A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE 80S. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
COME THROUGH WITH VERY LITTLE FANFARE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL START TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY WILL BE 10F TO 15F DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY WHEN A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
VALLEY FOG.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO PRODUCE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AT FAVORED LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 KT GUSTS AND 4 FT SEAS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SWLY LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...POHL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291741
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
141 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY POSSIBLY
BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
140 PM UPDATE...

DIURNAL CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.  STILL...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH SLIGHT WARMING AT 850 MB
RESULTING IN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI WITH READINGS
MOSTLY 80-85 DEGREES EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE S COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. A FEW DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP BUT MOSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO THE N WHICH WILL BRING SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY N AREAS. OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS A BIT MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH READINGS MID TO
UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S URBAN CENTERS
AND COASTAL AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AND GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR MOVES IN
ALONG WITH INCREASING KI VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES. THERE IS NO
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER BUT CANT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND 15C SUPPORT MAXES INTO THE MID 80S...COOLER S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT INCREASING INTO THE 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
IT WILL BECOMING A BIT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT TUESDAY
* HEAT WAVE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN ZONES MON-THURS

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION. POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A
BACK DOOR FRONT BY TUES. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS INTO THE
AREA BY THE MID TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE
WILL BUILD. BUT OVERALL HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VERY
LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES ON
MONDAY. WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO
MIX OUT AND WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS WILL
INCREASE REACHING AROUND 16C. THIS WILL YIELD TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 90F.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARITIMES ON TUESDAY BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO THE REGION. THE GFS IS
MORE PRONOUNCED WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT CLOSE TO THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH
KEEPS COASTAL COMMUNITIES COOLER ON TUESDAY BUT WESTERN ZONES
STILL REACHING UPPER 80S NEAR 90F.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 17-19C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO THE CT RIVER
VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4 DAY HEAT WAVE. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BE LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. THURSDAY SEEMS TO THE BEST DAY FOR A
CHC OF PRECIP AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN A WEAK SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOCALIZED IFR FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS LATE.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN A FEW HIT
OR MISS SHOWERS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR FOG DEVELOPING
AGAIN IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A FEW HOURS OF A WEAK
SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT S/SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS
SEEING GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS ON MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291741
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
141 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY POSSIBLY
BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
140 PM UPDATE...

DIURNAL CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.  STILL...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH SLIGHT WARMING AT 850 MB
RESULTING IN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI WITH READINGS
MOSTLY 80-85 DEGREES EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE S COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. A FEW DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP BUT MOSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO THE N WHICH WILL BRING SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY N AREAS. OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS A BIT MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH READINGS MID TO
UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S URBAN CENTERS
AND COASTAL AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AND GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR MOVES IN
ALONG WITH INCREASING KI VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES. THERE IS NO
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER BUT CANT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND 15C SUPPORT MAXES INTO THE MID 80S...COOLER S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT INCREASING INTO THE 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
IT WILL BECOMING A BIT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT TUESDAY
* HEAT WAVE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN ZONES MON-THURS

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION. POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A
BACK DOOR FRONT BY TUES. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS INTO THE
AREA BY THE MID TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE
WILL BUILD. BUT OVERALL HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VERY
LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES ON
MONDAY. WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO
MIX OUT AND WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS WILL
INCREASE REACHING AROUND 16C. THIS WILL YIELD TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 90F.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARITIMES ON TUESDAY BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO THE REGION. THE GFS IS
MORE PRONOUNCED WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT CLOSE TO THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH
KEEPS COASTAL COMMUNITIES COOLER ON TUESDAY BUT WESTERN ZONES
STILL REACHING UPPER 80S NEAR 90F.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 17-19C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO THE CT RIVER
VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4 DAY HEAT WAVE. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BE LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. THURSDAY SEEMS TO THE BEST DAY FOR A
CHC OF PRECIP AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN A WEAK SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOCALIZED IFR FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS LATE.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN A FEW HIT
OR MISS SHOWERS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR FOG DEVELOPING
AGAIN IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A FEW HOURS OF A WEAK
SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT S/SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS
SEEING GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS ON MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KGYX 291715
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
115 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
115 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
OTHER THAN SOME BUBBLING CU AND SOME CIRRUS IN SPOTS...A NICE
AFTERNOON CONTINUES.

1020 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...A FINE DAY WEATHERWISE IS
EXPECTED.

0545 UPDATE...UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY TODAY AFTER ANY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE COAST TODAY, WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
CIRRUS...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. A SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST TO THE 70S.
OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT VALLEY FOG. HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH COOLEST TEMPS IN
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM AND QUIET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT THE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A WEAKER
DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.  A
PATTERN REALIGNMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS JET ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING SEA DROPS INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH HELPING TO GIVE IT A KICK EASTWARD WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH OVER CANADA FOLDS BENEATH RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF
GREENLAND...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE -NAO AND ASSOCIATED BLOCKING IN
THIS REGION.  DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCES IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RESULT ACROSS NOAM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STABLE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WITH THIS PATTERN AMPLIFYING AS
THE WEEK CONTINUES.  INTERESTINGLY, THIS PLACES NEW ENGLAND
INITIALLY UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH
PUSHES EAST...BUT WITH HEIGHTS LATER FALLING AS THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES.  THIS PATTERN SPELLS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
NOTABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IN CONTROL
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE PERIOD.  FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CENTER
AROUND ANY MINOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIAL RIDGE-ROLLER
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.  A FURTHER CONCERN IS JUST HOW WARM WE
WILL GET AS HEAT DOME BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: EARLY MORNING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE FEATURES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AGREEMENT STRONGEST ON DETAILS OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WITH THE GFS STILL MORE ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE
PRIMARILY IN THE DEGREE OF LATE WEEK HEAT WE WILL ACHIEVE.

INTERESTINGLY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FAR MORE BULLISH WITH
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS CLOSE
TO THE GFS SOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO.

THE DETAILS...

A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
BRUSHES THE REGION AS IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
MOISTURE IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN THAT WE/LL ALREADY
BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AFTER SUNDAY/S WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SEE LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL RESTRICT SCHC/LOW CHANCE POP MENTION
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER AIRMASS WHICH
SUGGESTS A TERRIFIC DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
SURGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  AS FLOW TRAJECTORIES ALOFT BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN LLEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS WE REACH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION.  REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZED DYNAMICAL FORCING IS APPARENT WITH SPRAWLING RIDGE
EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO CANADA.  HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LIKELY RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY /20
PERCENT/ WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EITHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RIDING
OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...OR SOME THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACTIVITY /VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE NEW
29.00Z GFS/.

TEMPERATURES:

VERY SUMMERY PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS HEIGHTS BUILD TO +1-2SIGMA WITH T8S FOLLOWING SUIT.  BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS PRODUCTS REVEALING 10-15 DEGREE SPREADS FROM THE BOTTOM
TO TOP MEMBERS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS LIKELY THE BEST WAY TO GO
HERE...GIVING A NOD TO THE RECENT TRENDS TO THE MORE BULLISH GFS.

BEYOND THIS...VERY WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN...BUT WILL TEMPER
HIGHS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION /GFS MUCH MORE ROBUST HERE THAN THE
ECMWF/...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH GRADUALLY
BUILDING HUMIDITY INDICATES DAILY MORNING FOG CONCERNS AT HIE/LEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST.  STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
/15-20KTS/ APPEAR TO BE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 291715
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
115 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
115 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
OTHER THAN SOME BUBBLING CU AND SOME CIRRUS IN SPOTS...A NICE
AFTERNOON CONTINUES.

1020 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...A FINE DAY WEATHERWISE IS
EXPECTED.

0545 UPDATE...UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY TODAY AFTER ANY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE COAST TODAY, WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
CIRRUS...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. A SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST TO THE 70S.
OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT VALLEY FOG. HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH COOLEST TEMPS IN
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM AND QUIET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT THE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A WEAKER
DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.  A
PATTERN REALIGNMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS JET ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING SEA DROPS INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH HELPING TO GIVE IT A KICK EASTWARD WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH OVER CANADA FOLDS BENEATH RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF
GREENLAND...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE -NAO AND ASSOCIATED BLOCKING IN
THIS REGION.  DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCES IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RESULT ACROSS NOAM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STABLE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WITH THIS PATTERN AMPLIFYING AS
THE WEEK CONTINUES.  INTERESTINGLY, THIS PLACES NEW ENGLAND
INITIALLY UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH
PUSHES EAST...BUT WITH HEIGHTS LATER FALLING AS THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES.  THIS PATTERN SPELLS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
NOTABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IN CONTROL
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE PERIOD.  FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CENTER
AROUND ANY MINOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIAL RIDGE-ROLLER
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.  A FURTHER CONCERN IS JUST HOW WARM WE
WILL GET AS HEAT DOME BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: EARLY MORNING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE FEATURES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AGREEMENT STRONGEST ON DETAILS OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WITH THE GFS STILL MORE ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE
PRIMARILY IN THE DEGREE OF LATE WEEK HEAT WE WILL ACHIEVE.

INTERESTINGLY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FAR MORE BULLISH WITH
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS CLOSE
TO THE GFS SOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO.

THE DETAILS...

A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
BRUSHES THE REGION AS IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
MOISTURE IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN THAT WE/LL ALREADY
BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AFTER SUNDAY/S WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SEE LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL RESTRICT SCHC/LOW CHANCE POP MENTION
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER AIRMASS WHICH
SUGGESTS A TERRIFIC DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
SURGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  AS FLOW TRAJECTORIES ALOFT BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN LLEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS WE REACH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION.  REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZED DYNAMICAL FORCING IS APPARENT WITH SPRAWLING RIDGE
EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO CANADA.  HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LIKELY RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY /20
PERCENT/ WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EITHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RIDING
OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...OR SOME THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACTIVITY /VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE NEW
29.00Z GFS/.

TEMPERATURES:

VERY SUMMERY PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS HEIGHTS BUILD TO +1-2SIGMA WITH T8S FOLLOWING SUIT.  BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS PRODUCTS REVEALING 10-15 DEGREE SPREADS FROM THE BOTTOM
TO TOP MEMBERS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS LIKELY THE BEST WAY TO GO
HERE...GIVING A NOD TO THE RECENT TRENDS TO THE MORE BULLISH GFS.

BEYOND THIS...VERY WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN...BUT WILL TEMPER
HIGHS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION /GFS MUCH MORE ROBUST HERE THAN THE
ECMWF/...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH GRADUALLY
BUILDING HUMIDITY INDICATES DAILY MORNING FOG CONCERNS AT HIE/LEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST.  STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
/15-20KTS/ APPEAR TO BE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 291715
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
115 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
115 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
OTHER THAN SOME BUBBLING CU AND SOME CIRRUS IN SPOTS...A NICE
AFTERNOON CONTINUES.

1020 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...A FINE DAY WEATHERWISE IS
EXPECTED.

0545 UPDATE...UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY TODAY AFTER ANY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE COAST TODAY, WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
CIRRUS...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. A SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST TO THE 70S.
OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT VALLEY FOG. HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH COOLEST TEMPS IN
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM AND QUIET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT THE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A WEAKER
DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.  A
PATTERN REALIGNMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS JET ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING SEA DROPS INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH HELPING TO GIVE IT A KICK EASTWARD WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH OVER CANADA FOLDS BENEATH RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF
GREENLAND...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE -NAO AND ASSOCIATED BLOCKING IN
THIS REGION.  DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCES IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RESULT ACROSS NOAM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STABLE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WITH THIS PATTERN AMPLIFYING AS
THE WEEK CONTINUES.  INTERESTINGLY, THIS PLACES NEW ENGLAND
INITIALLY UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH
PUSHES EAST...BUT WITH HEIGHTS LATER FALLING AS THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES.  THIS PATTERN SPELLS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
NOTABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IN CONTROL
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE PERIOD.  FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CENTER
AROUND ANY MINOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIAL RIDGE-ROLLER
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.  A FURTHER CONCERN IS JUST HOW WARM WE
WILL GET AS HEAT DOME BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: EARLY MORNING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE FEATURES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AGREEMENT STRONGEST ON DETAILS OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WITH THE GFS STILL MORE ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE
PRIMARILY IN THE DEGREE OF LATE WEEK HEAT WE WILL ACHIEVE.

INTERESTINGLY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FAR MORE BULLISH WITH
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS CLOSE
TO THE GFS SOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO.

THE DETAILS...

A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
BRUSHES THE REGION AS IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
MOISTURE IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN THAT WE/LL ALREADY
BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AFTER SUNDAY/S WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SEE LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL RESTRICT SCHC/LOW CHANCE POP MENTION
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER AIRMASS WHICH
SUGGESTS A TERRIFIC DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
SURGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  AS FLOW TRAJECTORIES ALOFT BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN LLEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS WE REACH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION.  REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZED DYNAMICAL FORCING IS APPARENT WITH SPRAWLING RIDGE
EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO CANADA.  HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LIKELY RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY /20
PERCENT/ WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EITHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RIDING
OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...OR SOME THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACTIVITY /VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE NEW
29.00Z GFS/.

TEMPERATURES:

VERY SUMMERY PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS HEIGHTS BUILD TO +1-2SIGMA WITH T8S FOLLOWING SUIT.  BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS PRODUCTS REVEALING 10-15 DEGREE SPREADS FROM THE BOTTOM
TO TOP MEMBERS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS LIKELY THE BEST WAY TO GO
HERE...GIVING A NOD TO THE RECENT TRENDS TO THE MORE BULLISH GFS.

BEYOND THIS...VERY WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN...BUT WILL TEMPER
HIGHS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION /GFS MUCH MORE ROBUST HERE THAN THE
ECMWF/...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH GRADUALLY
BUILDING HUMIDITY INDICATES DAILY MORNING FOG CONCERNS AT HIE/LEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST.  STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
/15-20KTS/ APPEAR TO BE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 291715
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
115 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
115 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
OTHER THAN SOME BUBBLING CU AND SOME CIRRUS IN SPOTS...A NICE
AFTERNOON CONTINUES.

1020 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...A FINE DAY WEATHERWISE IS
EXPECTED.

0545 UPDATE...UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY TODAY AFTER ANY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE COAST TODAY, WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
CIRRUS...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. A SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST TO THE 70S.
OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT VALLEY FOG. HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH COOLEST TEMPS IN
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM AND QUIET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT THE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A WEAKER
DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.  A
PATTERN REALIGNMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS JET ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING SEA DROPS INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH HELPING TO GIVE IT A KICK EASTWARD WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH OVER CANADA FOLDS BENEATH RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF
GREENLAND...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE -NAO AND ASSOCIATED BLOCKING IN
THIS REGION.  DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCES IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RESULT ACROSS NOAM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STABLE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WITH THIS PATTERN AMPLIFYING AS
THE WEEK CONTINUES.  INTERESTINGLY, THIS PLACES NEW ENGLAND
INITIALLY UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH
PUSHES EAST...BUT WITH HEIGHTS LATER FALLING AS THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES.  THIS PATTERN SPELLS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
NOTABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IN CONTROL
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE PERIOD.  FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CENTER
AROUND ANY MINOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIAL RIDGE-ROLLER
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.  A FURTHER CONCERN IS JUST HOW WARM WE
WILL GET AS HEAT DOME BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: EARLY MORNING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE FEATURES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AGREEMENT STRONGEST ON DETAILS OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WITH THE GFS STILL MORE ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE
PRIMARILY IN THE DEGREE OF LATE WEEK HEAT WE WILL ACHIEVE.

INTERESTINGLY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FAR MORE BULLISH WITH
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS CLOSE
TO THE GFS SOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO.

THE DETAILS...

A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
BRUSHES THE REGION AS IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
MOISTURE IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN THAT WE/LL ALREADY
BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AFTER SUNDAY/S WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SEE LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL RESTRICT SCHC/LOW CHANCE POP MENTION
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER AIRMASS WHICH
SUGGESTS A TERRIFIC DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
SURGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  AS FLOW TRAJECTORIES ALOFT BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN LLEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS WE REACH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION.  REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZED DYNAMICAL FORCING IS APPARENT WITH SPRAWLING RIDGE
EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO CANADA.  HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LIKELY RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY /20
PERCENT/ WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EITHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RIDING
OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...OR SOME THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACTIVITY /VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE NEW
29.00Z GFS/.

TEMPERATURES:

VERY SUMMERY PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS HEIGHTS BUILD TO +1-2SIGMA WITH T8S FOLLOWING SUIT.  BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS PRODUCTS REVEALING 10-15 DEGREE SPREADS FROM THE BOTTOM
TO TOP MEMBERS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS LIKELY THE BEST WAY TO GO
HERE...GIVING A NOD TO THE RECENT TRENDS TO THE MORE BULLISH GFS.

BEYOND THIS...VERY WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN...BUT WILL TEMPER
HIGHS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION /GFS MUCH MORE ROBUST HERE THAN THE
ECMWF/...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH GRADUALLY
BUILDING HUMIDITY INDICATES DAILY MORNING FOG CONCERNS AT HIE/LEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST.  STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
/15-20KTS/ APPEAR TO BE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 291420
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1020 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1020 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...A FINE DAY WEATHERWISE IS
EXPECTED.

0545 UPDATE...UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY TODAY AFTER ANY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE COAST TODAY, WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
CIRRUS...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. A SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST TO THE 70S.
OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT VALLEY FOG. HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH COOLEST TEMPS IN
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM AND QUIET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT THE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A WEAKER
DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.  A
PATTERN REALIGNMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS JET ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING SEA DROPS INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH HELPING TO GIVE IT A KICK EASTWARD WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH OVER CANADA FOLDS BENEATH RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF
GREENLAND...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE -NAO AND ASSOCIATED BLOCKING IN
THIS REGION.  DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCES IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RESULT ACROSS NOAM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STABLE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WITH THIS PATTERN AMPLIFYING AS
THE WEEK CONTINUES.  INTERESTINGLY, THIS PLACES NEW ENGLAND
INITIALLY UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH
PUSHES EAST...BUT WITH HEIGHTS LATER FALLING AS THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES.  THIS PATTERN SPELLS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
NOTABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IN CONTROL
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE PERIOD.  FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CENTER
AROUND ANY MINOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIAL RIDGE-ROLLER
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.  A FURTHER CONCERN IS JUST HOW WARM WE
WILL GET AS HEAT DOME BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: EARLY MORNING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE FEATURES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AGREEMENT STRONGEST ON DETAILS OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WITH THE GFS STILL MORE ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE
PRIMARILY IN THE DEGREE OF LATE WEEK HEAT WE WILL ACHIEVE.

INTERESTINGLY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FAR MORE BULLISH WITH
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS CLOSE
TO THE GFS SOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO.

THE DETAILS...

A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
BRUSHES THE REGION AS IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
MOISTURE IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN THAT WE/LL ALREADY
BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AFTER SUNDAY/S WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SEE LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL RESTRICT SCHC/LOW CHANCE POP MENTION
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER AIRMASS WHICH
SUGGESTS A TERRIFIC DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
SURGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  AS FLOW TRAJECTORIES ALOFT BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN LLEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS WE REACH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION.  REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZED DYNAMICAL FORCING IS APPARENT WITH SPRAWLING RIDGE
EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO CANADA.  HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LIKELY RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY /20
PERCENT/ WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EITHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RIDING
OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...OR SOME THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACTIVITY /VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE NEW
29.00Z GFS/.

TEMPERATURES:

VERY SUMMERY PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS HEIGHTS BUILD TO +1-2SIGMA WITH T8S FOLLOWING SUIT.  BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS PRODUCTS REVEALING 10-15 DEGREE SPREADS FROM THE BOTTOM
TO TOP MEMBERS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS LIKELY THE BEST WAY TO GO
HERE...GIVING A NOD TO THE RECENT TRENDS TO THE MORE BULLISH GFS.

BEYOND THIS...VERY WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN...BUT WILL TEMPER
HIGHS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION /GFS MUCH MORE ROBUST HERE THAN THE
ECMWF/...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH GRADUALLY
BUILDING HUMIDITY INDICATES DAILY MORNING FOG CONCERNS AT HIE/LEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST.  STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
/15-20KTS/ APPEAR TO BE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 291420
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1020 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1020 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...A FINE DAY WEATHERWISE IS
EXPECTED.

0545 UPDATE...UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY TODAY AFTER ANY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE COAST TODAY, WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
CIRRUS...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. A SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST TO THE 70S.
OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT VALLEY FOG. HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH COOLEST TEMPS IN
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM AND QUIET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT THE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A WEAKER
DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.  A
PATTERN REALIGNMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS JET ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING SEA DROPS INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH HELPING TO GIVE IT A KICK EASTWARD WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH OVER CANADA FOLDS BENEATH RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF
GREENLAND...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE -NAO AND ASSOCIATED BLOCKING IN
THIS REGION.  DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCES IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RESULT ACROSS NOAM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STABLE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WITH THIS PATTERN AMPLIFYING AS
THE WEEK CONTINUES.  INTERESTINGLY, THIS PLACES NEW ENGLAND
INITIALLY UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH
PUSHES EAST...BUT WITH HEIGHTS LATER FALLING AS THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES.  THIS PATTERN SPELLS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
NOTABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IN CONTROL
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE PERIOD.  FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CENTER
AROUND ANY MINOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIAL RIDGE-ROLLER
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.  A FURTHER CONCERN IS JUST HOW WARM WE
WILL GET AS HEAT DOME BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: EARLY MORNING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE FEATURES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AGREEMENT STRONGEST ON DETAILS OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WITH THE GFS STILL MORE ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE
PRIMARILY IN THE DEGREE OF LATE WEEK HEAT WE WILL ACHIEVE.

INTERESTINGLY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FAR MORE BULLISH WITH
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS CLOSE
TO THE GFS SOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO.

THE DETAILS...

A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
BRUSHES THE REGION AS IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
MOISTURE IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN THAT WE/LL ALREADY
BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AFTER SUNDAY/S WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SEE LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL RESTRICT SCHC/LOW CHANCE POP MENTION
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER AIRMASS WHICH
SUGGESTS A TERRIFIC DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
SURGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  AS FLOW TRAJECTORIES ALOFT BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN LLEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS WE REACH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION.  REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZED DYNAMICAL FORCING IS APPARENT WITH SPRAWLING RIDGE
EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO CANADA.  HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LIKELY RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY /20
PERCENT/ WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EITHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RIDING
OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...OR SOME THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACTIVITY /VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE NEW
29.00Z GFS/.

TEMPERATURES:

VERY SUMMERY PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS HEIGHTS BUILD TO +1-2SIGMA WITH T8S FOLLOWING SUIT.  BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS PRODUCTS REVEALING 10-15 DEGREE SPREADS FROM THE BOTTOM
TO TOP MEMBERS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS LIKELY THE BEST WAY TO GO
HERE...GIVING A NOD TO THE RECENT TRENDS TO THE MORE BULLISH GFS.

BEYOND THIS...VERY WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN...BUT WILL TEMPER
HIGHS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION /GFS MUCH MORE ROBUST HERE THAN THE
ECMWF/...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH GRADUALLY
BUILDING HUMIDITY INDICATES DAILY MORNING FOG CONCERNS AT HIE/LEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST.  STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
/15-20KTS/ APPEAR TO BE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 291420
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1020 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1020 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...A FINE DAY WEATHERWISE IS
EXPECTED.

0545 UPDATE...UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY TODAY AFTER ANY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE COAST TODAY, WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
CIRRUS...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. A SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST TO THE 70S.
OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT VALLEY FOG. HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH COOLEST TEMPS IN
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM AND QUIET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT THE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A WEAKER
DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.  A
PATTERN REALIGNMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS JET ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING SEA DROPS INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH HELPING TO GIVE IT A KICK EASTWARD WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH OVER CANADA FOLDS BENEATH RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF
GREENLAND...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE -NAO AND ASSOCIATED BLOCKING IN
THIS REGION.  DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCES IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RESULT ACROSS NOAM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STABLE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WITH THIS PATTERN AMPLIFYING AS
THE WEEK CONTINUES.  INTERESTINGLY, THIS PLACES NEW ENGLAND
INITIALLY UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH
PUSHES EAST...BUT WITH HEIGHTS LATER FALLING AS THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES.  THIS PATTERN SPELLS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
NOTABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IN CONTROL
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE PERIOD.  FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CENTER
AROUND ANY MINOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIAL RIDGE-ROLLER
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.  A FURTHER CONCERN IS JUST HOW WARM WE
WILL GET AS HEAT DOME BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: EARLY MORNING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE FEATURES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AGREEMENT STRONGEST ON DETAILS OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WITH THE GFS STILL MORE ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE
PRIMARILY IN THE DEGREE OF LATE WEEK HEAT WE WILL ACHIEVE.

INTERESTINGLY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FAR MORE BULLISH WITH
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS CLOSE
TO THE GFS SOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO.

THE DETAILS...

A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
BRUSHES THE REGION AS IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
MOISTURE IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN THAT WE/LL ALREADY
BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AFTER SUNDAY/S WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SEE LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL RESTRICT SCHC/LOW CHANCE POP MENTION
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER AIRMASS WHICH
SUGGESTS A TERRIFIC DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
SURGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  AS FLOW TRAJECTORIES ALOFT BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN LLEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS WE REACH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION.  REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZED DYNAMICAL FORCING IS APPARENT WITH SPRAWLING RIDGE
EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO CANADA.  HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LIKELY RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY /20
PERCENT/ WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EITHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RIDING
OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...OR SOME THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACTIVITY /VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE NEW
29.00Z GFS/.

TEMPERATURES:

VERY SUMMERY PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS HEIGHTS BUILD TO +1-2SIGMA WITH T8S FOLLOWING SUIT.  BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS PRODUCTS REVEALING 10-15 DEGREE SPREADS FROM THE BOTTOM
TO TOP MEMBERS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS LIKELY THE BEST WAY TO GO
HERE...GIVING A NOD TO THE RECENT TRENDS TO THE MORE BULLISH GFS.

BEYOND THIS...VERY WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN...BUT WILL TEMPER
HIGHS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION /GFS MUCH MORE ROBUST HERE THAN THE
ECMWF/...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH GRADUALLY
BUILDING HUMIDITY INDICATES DAILY MORNING FOG CONCERNS AT HIE/LEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST.  STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
/15-20KTS/ APPEAR TO BE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 291420
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1020 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1020 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...A FINE DAY WEATHERWISE IS
EXPECTED.

0545 UPDATE...UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY TODAY AFTER ANY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE COAST TODAY, WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
CIRRUS...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. A SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST TO THE 70S.
OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT VALLEY FOG. HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH COOLEST TEMPS IN
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM AND QUIET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT THE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A WEAKER
DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.  A
PATTERN REALIGNMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS JET ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING SEA DROPS INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH HELPING TO GIVE IT A KICK EASTWARD WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH OVER CANADA FOLDS BENEATH RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF
GREENLAND...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE -NAO AND ASSOCIATED BLOCKING IN
THIS REGION.  DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCES IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RESULT ACROSS NOAM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STABLE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WITH THIS PATTERN AMPLIFYING AS
THE WEEK CONTINUES.  INTERESTINGLY, THIS PLACES NEW ENGLAND
INITIALLY UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH
PUSHES EAST...BUT WITH HEIGHTS LATER FALLING AS THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES.  THIS PATTERN SPELLS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
NOTABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IN CONTROL
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE PERIOD.  FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CENTER
AROUND ANY MINOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIAL RIDGE-ROLLER
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.  A FURTHER CONCERN IS JUST HOW WARM WE
WILL GET AS HEAT DOME BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: EARLY MORNING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE FEATURES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AGREEMENT STRONGEST ON DETAILS OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WITH THE GFS STILL MORE ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE
PRIMARILY IN THE DEGREE OF LATE WEEK HEAT WE WILL ACHIEVE.

INTERESTINGLY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FAR MORE BULLISH WITH
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS CLOSE
TO THE GFS SOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO.

THE DETAILS...

A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
BRUSHES THE REGION AS IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
MOISTURE IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN THAT WE/LL ALREADY
BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AFTER SUNDAY/S WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SEE LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL RESTRICT SCHC/LOW CHANCE POP MENTION
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER AIRMASS WHICH
SUGGESTS A TERRIFIC DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
SURGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  AS FLOW TRAJECTORIES ALOFT BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN LLEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS WE REACH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION.  REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZED DYNAMICAL FORCING IS APPARENT WITH SPRAWLING RIDGE
EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO CANADA.  HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LIKELY RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY /20
PERCENT/ WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EITHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RIDING
OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...OR SOME THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACTIVITY /VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE NEW
29.00Z GFS/.

TEMPERATURES:

VERY SUMMERY PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS HEIGHTS BUILD TO +1-2SIGMA WITH T8S FOLLOWING SUIT.  BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS PRODUCTS REVEALING 10-15 DEGREE SPREADS FROM THE BOTTOM
TO TOP MEMBERS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS LIKELY THE BEST WAY TO GO
HERE...GIVING A NOD TO THE RECENT TRENDS TO THE MORE BULLISH GFS.

BEYOND THIS...VERY WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN...BUT WILL TEMPER
HIGHS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION /GFS MUCH MORE ROBUST HERE THAN THE
ECMWF/...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH GRADUALLY
BUILDING HUMIDITY INDICATES DAILY MORNING FOG CONCERNS AT HIE/LEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST.  STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
/15-20KTS/ APPEAR TO BE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291355
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
955 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY POSSIBLY
BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...

PATCHY GROUND FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF THIS MORNING. EXPECT
IT TO CONTINUE TO LIFT AS THE SUN HEATS UP. MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. MADE A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURES BUT OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH SLIGHT WARMING AT 850 MB
RESULTING IN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI WITH READINGS
MOSTLY 80-85 DEGREES EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE S COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. A FEW DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP BUT MOSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO THE N WHICH WILL BRING SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY N AREAS. OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS A BIT MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH READINGS MID TO
UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S URBAN CENTERS
AND COASTAL AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AND GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR MOVES IN
ALONG WITH INCREASING KI VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES. THERE IS NO
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER BUT CANT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND 15C SUPPORT MAXES INTO THE MID 80S...COOLER S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT INCREASING INTO THE 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
IT WILL BECOMING A BIT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT TUESDAY
* HEAT WAVE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN ZONES MON-THURS

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION. POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A
BACK DOOR FRONT BY TUES. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS INTO THE
AREA BY THE MID TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE
WILL BUILD. BUT OVERALL HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VERY
LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES ON
MONDAY. WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO
MIX OUT AND WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS WILL
INCREASE REACHING AROUND 16C. THIS WILL YIELD TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 90F.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARITIMES ON TUESDAY BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO THE REGION. THE GFS IS
MORE PRONOUNCED WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT CLOSE TO THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH
KEEPS COASTAL COMMUNITIES COOLER ON TUESDAY BUT WESTERN ZONES
STILL REACHING UPPER 80S NEAR 90F.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 17-19C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO THE CT RIVER
VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4 DAY HEAT WAVE. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BE LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. THURSDAY SEEMS TO THE BEST DAY FOR A
CHC OF PRECIP AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A FEW HOURS OF A WEAK
SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT S/SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS
SEEING GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS ON MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291355
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
955 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY POSSIBLY
BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...

PATCHY GROUND FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF THIS MORNING. EXPECT
IT TO CONTINUE TO LIFT AS THE SUN HEATS UP. MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. MADE A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURES BUT OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH SLIGHT WARMING AT 850 MB
RESULTING IN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI WITH READINGS
MOSTLY 80-85 DEGREES EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE S COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. A FEW DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP BUT MOSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO THE N WHICH WILL BRING SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY N AREAS. OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS A BIT MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH READINGS MID TO
UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S URBAN CENTERS
AND COASTAL AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AND GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR MOVES IN
ALONG WITH INCREASING KI VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES. THERE IS NO
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER BUT CANT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND 15C SUPPORT MAXES INTO THE MID 80S...COOLER S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT INCREASING INTO THE 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
IT WILL BECOMING A BIT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT TUESDAY
* HEAT WAVE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN ZONES MON-THURS

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION. POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A
BACK DOOR FRONT BY TUES. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS INTO THE
AREA BY THE MID TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE
WILL BUILD. BUT OVERALL HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VERY
LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES ON
MONDAY. WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO
MIX OUT AND WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS WILL
INCREASE REACHING AROUND 16C. THIS WILL YIELD TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 90F.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARITIMES ON TUESDAY BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO THE REGION. THE GFS IS
MORE PRONOUNCED WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT CLOSE TO THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH
KEEPS COASTAL COMMUNITIES COOLER ON TUESDAY BUT WESTERN ZONES
STILL REACHING UPPER 80S NEAR 90F.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 17-19C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO THE CT RIVER
VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4 DAY HEAT WAVE. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BE LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. THURSDAY SEEMS TO THE BEST DAY FOR A
CHC OF PRECIP AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A FEW HOURS OF A WEAK
SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT S/SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS
SEEING GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS ON MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291037
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
637 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY POSSIBLY
BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

PATCHY GROUND FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE AWAY TO ANOTHER GREAT
DAY. ASIDE FROM A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH SLIGHT WARMING AT 850 MB
RESULTING IN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI WITH READINGS
MOSTLY 80-85 DEGREES EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE S COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. A FEW DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP BUT MOSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO THE N WHICH WILL BRING SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY N AREAS. OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS A BIT MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH READINGS MID TO
UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S URBAN CENTERS
AND COASTAL AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AND GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR MOVES IN
ALONG WITH INCREASING KI VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES. THERE IS NO
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER BUT CANT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND 15C SUPPORT MAXES INTO THE MID 80S...COOLER S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT INCREASING INTO THE 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
IT WILL BECOMING A BIT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT TUESDAY
* HEAT WAVE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN ZONES MON-THURS

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS INTO THE AREA BY THE
MID TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BUILD. BUT OVERALL
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES ON
MONDAY. WESTERN FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX
OUT AND WINDS TO INCREASE NEAR 20 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE
REACHING AROUND 16C. THIS WILL YIELD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 90F.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARITIMES ON TUESDAY BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO THE REGION. THE GFS IS
MORE PRONOUNCE WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT CLOSE TO IMMEDIATE COAST.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS
COASTAL COMMUNITIES COOLER ON TUESDAY BUT WESTERN ZONES STILL
REACHING UPPER 80S NEAR 90F.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 17-19C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S. THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER
VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4 DAYS HEAT WAVE. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL
LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE AS
WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY. THURSDAY SEEMS TO THE BEST DAY FOR A CHC OF
PRECIP AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...


TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A FEW HOURS OF A WEAK
SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT S/SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS
SEEING GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS ON MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291037
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
637 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY POSSIBLY
BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

PATCHY GROUND FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE AWAY TO ANOTHER GREAT
DAY. ASIDE FROM A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH SLIGHT WARMING AT 850 MB
RESULTING IN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI WITH READINGS
MOSTLY 80-85 DEGREES EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE S COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. A FEW DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP BUT MOSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO THE N WHICH WILL BRING SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY N AREAS. OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS A BIT MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH READINGS MID TO
UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S URBAN CENTERS
AND COASTAL AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AND GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR MOVES IN
ALONG WITH INCREASING KI VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES. THERE IS NO
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER BUT CANT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND 15C SUPPORT MAXES INTO THE MID 80S...COOLER S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT INCREASING INTO THE 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
IT WILL BECOMING A BIT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT TUESDAY
* HEAT WAVE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN ZONES MON-THURS

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS INTO THE AREA BY THE
MID TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BUILD. BUT OVERALL
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES ON
MONDAY. WESTERN FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX
OUT AND WINDS TO INCREASE NEAR 20 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE
REACHING AROUND 16C. THIS WILL YIELD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 90F.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARITIMES ON TUESDAY BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO THE REGION. THE GFS IS
MORE PRONOUNCE WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT CLOSE TO IMMEDIATE COAST.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS
COASTAL COMMUNITIES COOLER ON TUESDAY BUT WESTERN ZONES STILL
REACHING UPPER 80S NEAR 90F.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 17-19C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S. THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER
VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4 DAYS HEAT WAVE. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL
LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE AS
WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY. THURSDAY SEEMS TO THE BEST DAY FOR A CHC OF
PRECIP AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...


TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A FEW HOURS OF A WEAK
SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT S/SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS
SEEING GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS ON MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KGYX 290944
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
544 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

0545 UPDATE...UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY TODAY AFTER ANY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE COAST TODAY, WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
CIRRUS...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. A SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST TO THE 70S.
OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT VALLEY FOG. HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH COOLEST TEMPS IN
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
     WARM AND QUIET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT THE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A WEAKER
DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.  A
PATTERN REALIGNMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS JET ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING SEA DROPS INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH HELPING TO GIVE IT A KICK EASTWARD WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH OVER CANADA FOLDS BENEATH RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF
GREENLAND...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE -NAO AND ASSOCIATED BLOCKING IN
THIS REGION.  DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCES IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RESULT ACROSS NOAM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STABLE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WITH THIS PATTERN AMPLIFYING AS
THE WEEK CONTINUES.  INTERESTINGLY, THIS PLACES NEW ENGLAND
INITIALLY UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH
PUSHES EAST...BUT WITH HEIGHTS LATER FALLING AS THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES.  THIS PATTERN SPELLS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
NOTABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IN CONTROL
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE PERIOD.  FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CENTER
AROUND ANY MINOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIAL RIDGE-ROLLER
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.  A FURTHER CONCERN IS JUST HOW WARM WE
WILL GET AS HEAT DOME BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: EARLY MORNING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE FEATURES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AGREEMENT STRONGEST ON DETAILS OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WITH THE GFS STILL MORE ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE
PRIMARILY IN THE DEGREE OF LATE WEEK HEAT WE WILL ACHIEVE.

INTERESTINGLY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FAR MORE BULLISH WITH
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS CLOSE
TO THE GFS SOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO.

THE DETAILS...

A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
BRUSHES THE REGION AS IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
MOISTURE IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN THAT WE/LL ALREADY
BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AFTER SUNDAY/S WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SEE LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL RESTRICT SCHC/LOW CHANCE POP MENTION
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER AIRMASS WHICH
SUGGESTS A TERRIFIC DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
SURGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  AS FLOW TRAJECTORIES ALOFT BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN LLEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS WE REACH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION.  REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZED DYNAMICAL FORCING IS APPARENT WITH SPRAWLING RIDGE
EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO CANADA.  HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LIKELY RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY /20
PERCENT/ WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EITHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RIDING
OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...OR SOME THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACTIVITY /VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE NEW
29.00Z GFS/.

TEMPERATURES:

VERY SUMMERY PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS HEIGHTS BUILD TO +1-2SIGMA WITH T8S FOLLOWING SUIT.  BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS PRODUCTS REVEALING 10-15 DEGREE SPREADS FROM THE BOTTOM
TO TOP MEMBERS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS LIKELY THE BEST WAY TO GO
HERE...GIVING A NOD TO THE RECENT TRENDS TO THE MORE BULLISH GFS.

BEYOND THIS...VERY WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN...BUT WILL TEMPER
HIGHS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION /GFS MUCH MORE ROBUST HERE THAN THE
ECMWF/...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH GRADUALLY
BUILDING HUMIDITY INDICATES DAILY MORNING FOG CONCERNS AT HIE/LEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST.  STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
/15-20KTS/ APPEAR TO BE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...JENSENIUS
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS
MARINE...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 290944
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
544 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

0545 UPDATE...UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY TODAY AFTER ANY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE COAST TODAY, WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
CIRRUS...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. A SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST TO THE 70S.
OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT VALLEY FOG. HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH COOLEST TEMPS IN
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
     WARM AND QUIET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT THE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A WEAKER
DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.  A
PATTERN REALIGNMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS JET ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING SEA DROPS INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH HELPING TO GIVE IT A KICK EASTWARD WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH OVER CANADA FOLDS BENEATH RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF
GREENLAND...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE -NAO AND ASSOCIATED BLOCKING IN
THIS REGION.  DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCES IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RESULT ACROSS NOAM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STABLE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WITH THIS PATTERN AMPLIFYING AS
THE WEEK CONTINUES.  INTERESTINGLY, THIS PLACES NEW ENGLAND
INITIALLY UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH
PUSHES EAST...BUT WITH HEIGHTS LATER FALLING AS THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES.  THIS PATTERN SPELLS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
NOTABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IN CONTROL
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE PERIOD.  FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CENTER
AROUND ANY MINOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIAL RIDGE-ROLLER
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.  A FURTHER CONCERN IS JUST HOW WARM WE
WILL GET AS HEAT DOME BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: EARLY MORNING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE FEATURES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AGREEMENT STRONGEST ON DETAILS OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WITH THE GFS STILL MORE ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE
PRIMARILY IN THE DEGREE OF LATE WEEK HEAT WE WILL ACHIEVE.

INTERESTINGLY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FAR MORE BULLISH WITH
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS CLOSE
TO THE GFS SOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO.

THE DETAILS...

A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
BRUSHES THE REGION AS IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
MOISTURE IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN THAT WE/LL ALREADY
BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AFTER SUNDAY/S WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SEE LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL RESTRICT SCHC/LOW CHANCE POP MENTION
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER AIRMASS WHICH
SUGGESTS A TERRIFIC DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
SURGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  AS FLOW TRAJECTORIES ALOFT BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN LLEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS WE REACH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION.  REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZED DYNAMICAL FORCING IS APPARENT WITH SPRAWLING RIDGE
EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO CANADA.  HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LIKELY RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY /20
PERCENT/ WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EITHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RIDING
OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...OR SOME THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACTIVITY /VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE NEW
29.00Z GFS/.

TEMPERATURES:

VERY SUMMERY PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS HEIGHTS BUILD TO +1-2SIGMA WITH T8S FOLLOWING SUIT.  BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS PRODUCTS REVEALING 10-15 DEGREE SPREADS FROM THE BOTTOM
TO TOP MEMBERS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS LIKELY THE BEST WAY TO GO
HERE...GIVING A NOD TO THE RECENT TRENDS TO THE MORE BULLISH GFS.

BEYOND THIS...VERY WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN...BUT WILL TEMPER
HIGHS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION /GFS MUCH MORE ROBUST HERE THAN THE
ECMWF/...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH GRADUALLY
BUILDING HUMIDITY INDICATES DAILY MORNING FOG CONCERNS AT HIE/LEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST.  STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
/15-20KTS/ APPEAR TO BE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...JENSENIUS
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS
MARINE...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 290944
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
544 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

0545 UPDATE...UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY TODAY AFTER ANY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE COAST TODAY, WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
CIRRUS...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. A SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST TO THE 70S.
OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT VALLEY FOG. HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH COOLEST TEMPS IN
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
     WARM AND QUIET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT THE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A WEAKER
DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.  A
PATTERN REALIGNMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS JET ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING SEA DROPS INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH HELPING TO GIVE IT A KICK EASTWARD WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH OVER CANADA FOLDS BENEATH RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF
GREENLAND...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE -NAO AND ASSOCIATED BLOCKING IN
THIS REGION.  DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCES IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RESULT ACROSS NOAM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STABLE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WITH THIS PATTERN AMPLIFYING AS
THE WEEK CONTINUES.  INTERESTINGLY, THIS PLACES NEW ENGLAND
INITIALLY UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH
PUSHES EAST...BUT WITH HEIGHTS LATER FALLING AS THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES.  THIS PATTERN SPELLS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
NOTABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IN CONTROL
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE PERIOD.  FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CENTER
AROUND ANY MINOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIAL RIDGE-ROLLER
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.  A FURTHER CONCERN IS JUST HOW WARM WE
WILL GET AS HEAT DOME BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: EARLY MORNING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE FEATURES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AGREEMENT STRONGEST ON DETAILS OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WITH THE GFS STILL MORE ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE
PRIMARILY IN THE DEGREE OF LATE WEEK HEAT WE WILL ACHIEVE.

INTERESTINGLY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FAR MORE BULLISH WITH
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS CLOSE
TO THE GFS SOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO.

THE DETAILS...

A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
BRUSHES THE REGION AS IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
MOISTURE IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN THAT WE/LL ALREADY
BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AFTER SUNDAY/S WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SEE LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL RESTRICT SCHC/LOW CHANCE POP MENTION
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER AIRMASS WHICH
SUGGESTS A TERRIFIC DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
SURGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  AS FLOW TRAJECTORIES ALOFT BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN LLEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS WE REACH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION.  REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZED DYNAMICAL FORCING IS APPARENT WITH SPRAWLING RIDGE
EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO CANADA.  HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LIKELY RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY /20
PERCENT/ WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EITHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RIDING
OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...OR SOME THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACTIVITY /VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE NEW
29.00Z GFS/.

TEMPERATURES:

VERY SUMMERY PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS HEIGHTS BUILD TO +1-2SIGMA WITH T8S FOLLOWING SUIT.  BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS PRODUCTS REVEALING 10-15 DEGREE SPREADS FROM THE BOTTOM
TO TOP MEMBERS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS LIKELY THE BEST WAY TO GO
HERE...GIVING A NOD TO THE RECENT TRENDS TO THE MORE BULLISH GFS.

BEYOND THIS...VERY WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN...BUT WILL TEMPER
HIGHS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION /GFS MUCH MORE ROBUST HERE THAN THE
ECMWF/...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH GRADUALLY
BUILDING HUMIDITY INDICATES DAILY MORNING FOG CONCERNS AT HIE/LEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST.  STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
/15-20KTS/ APPEAR TO BE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...JENSENIUS
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS
MARINE...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 290944
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
544 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

0545 UPDATE...UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY TODAY AFTER ANY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE COAST TODAY, WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
CIRRUS...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. A SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST TO THE 70S.
OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT VALLEY FOG. HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH COOLEST TEMPS IN
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
     WARM AND QUIET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT THE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A WEAKER
DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.  A
PATTERN REALIGNMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS JET ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING SEA DROPS INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH HELPING TO GIVE IT A KICK EASTWARD WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH OVER CANADA FOLDS BENEATH RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF
GREENLAND...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE -NAO AND ASSOCIATED BLOCKING IN
THIS REGION.  DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCES IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RESULT ACROSS NOAM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STABLE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WITH THIS PATTERN AMPLIFYING AS
THE WEEK CONTINUES.  INTERESTINGLY, THIS PLACES NEW ENGLAND
INITIALLY UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH
PUSHES EAST...BUT WITH HEIGHTS LATER FALLING AS THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES.  THIS PATTERN SPELLS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
NOTABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IN CONTROL
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE PERIOD.  FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CENTER
AROUND ANY MINOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIAL RIDGE-ROLLER
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.  A FURTHER CONCERN IS JUST HOW WARM WE
WILL GET AS HEAT DOME BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: EARLY MORNING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE FEATURES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AGREEMENT STRONGEST ON DETAILS OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WITH THE GFS STILL MORE ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE
PRIMARILY IN THE DEGREE OF LATE WEEK HEAT WE WILL ACHIEVE.

INTERESTINGLY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FAR MORE BULLISH WITH
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS CLOSE
TO THE GFS SOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO.

THE DETAILS...

A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
BRUSHES THE REGION AS IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
MOISTURE IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN THAT WE/LL ALREADY
BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AFTER SUNDAY/S WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SEE LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL RESTRICT SCHC/LOW CHANCE POP MENTION
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER AIRMASS WHICH
SUGGESTS A TERRIFIC DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
SURGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  AS FLOW TRAJECTORIES ALOFT BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN LLEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS WE REACH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION.  REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZED DYNAMICAL FORCING IS APPARENT WITH SPRAWLING RIDGE
EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO CANADA.  HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LIKELY RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY /20
PERCENT/ WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EITHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RIDING
OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...OR SOME THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACTIVITY /VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE NEW
29.00Z GFS/.

TEMPERATURES:

VERY SUMMERY PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS HEIGHTS BUILD TO +1-2SIGMA WITH T8S FOLLOWING SUIT.  BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS PRODUCTS REVEALING 10-15 DEGREE SPREADS FROM THE BOTTOM
TO TOP MEMBERS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS LIKELY THE BEST WAY TO GO
HERE...GIVING A NOD TO THE RECENT TRENDS TO THE MORE BULLISH GFS.

BEYOND THIS...VERY WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN...BUT WILL TEMPER
HIGHS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION /GFS MUCH MORE ROBUST HERE THAN THE
ECMWF/...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH GRADUALLY
BUILDING HUMIDITY INDICATES DAILY MORNING FOG CONCERNS AT HIE/LEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST.  STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
/15-20KTS/ APPEAR TO BE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...JENSENIUS
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS
MARINE...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290749
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
349 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY POSSIBLY
BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH SLIGHT WARMING AT 850 MB
RESULTING IN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI WITH READINGS
MOSTLY 80-85 DEGREES EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP BUT MOSUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO THE N WHICH WILL BRING SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY N AREAS. OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS A BIT MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH READINGS MID TO
UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S URBAN CENTERS
AND COASTAL AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AND GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR MOVES IN
ALONG WITH INCREASING KI VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES. THERE IS NO
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER BUT CANT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND 15C SUPPORT MAXES INTO THE MID 80S...COOLER S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT INCREASING INTO THE 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
IT WILL BECOMING A BIT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT TUESDAY
* HEAT WAVE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN ZONES MON-THURS

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS INTO THE AREA BY THE
MID TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BUILD. BUT OVERALL
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES ON
MONDAY. WESTERN FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX
OUT AND WINDS TO INCREASE NEAR 20 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE
REACHING AROUND 16C. THIS WILL YIELD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 90F.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARITIMES ON TUESDAY BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO THE REGION. THE GFS IS
MORE PRONOUNCE WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT CLOSE TO IMMEDIATE COAST.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS
COASTAL COMMUNITIES COOLER ON TUESDAY BUT WESTERN ZONES STILL
REACHING UPPER 80S NEAR 90F.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 17-19C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S. THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER
VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4 DAYS HEAT WAVE. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL
LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE AS
WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY. THURSDAY SEEMS TO THE BEST DAY FOR A CHC OF
PRECIP AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY IFR FOG DEVELOPING IN THE TYPICAL FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A FEW HOURS OF A WEAK
SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT S/SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS
SEEING GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS ON MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290749
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
349 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY POSSIBLY
BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH SLIGHT WARMING AT 850 MB
RESULTING IN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI WITH READINGS
MOSTLY 80-85 DEGREES EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP BUT MOSUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO THE N WHICH WILL BRING SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY N AREAS. OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS A BIT MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH READINGS MID TO
UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S URBAN CENTERS
AND COASTAL AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AND GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR MOVES IN
ALONG WITH INCREASING KI VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES. THERE IS NO
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER BUT CANT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND 15C SUPPORT MAXES INTO THE MID 80S...COOLER S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT INCREASING INTO THE 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
IT WILL BECOMING A BIT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT TUESDAY
* HEAT WAVE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN ZONES MON-THURS

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS INTO THE AREA BY THE
MID TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BUILD. BUT OVERALL
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES ON
MONDAY. WESTERN FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX
OUT AND WINDS TO INCREASE NEAR 20 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE
REACHING AROUND 16C. THIS WILL YIELD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 90F.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARITIMES ON TUESDAY BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO THE REGION. THE GFS IS
MORE PRONOUNCE WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT CLOSE TO IMMEDIATE COAST.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS
COASTAL COMMUNITIES COOLER ON TUESDAY BUT WESTERN ZONES STILL
REACHING UPPER 80S NEAR 90F.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 17-19C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S. THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER
VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4 DAYS HEAT WAVE. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL
LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE AS
WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY. THURSDAY SEEMS TO THE BEST DAY FOR A CHC OF
PRECIP AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY IFR FOG DEVELOPING IN THE TYPICAL FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A FEW HOURS OF A WEAK
SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT S/SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS
SEEING GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS ON MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290749
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
349 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY POSSIBLY
BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH SLIGHT WARMING AT 850 MB
RESULTING IN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI WITH READINGS
MOSTLY 80-85 DEGREES EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP BUT MOSUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO THE N WHICH WILL BRING SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY N AREAS. OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS A BIT MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH READINGS MID TO
UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S URBAN CENTERS
AND COASTAL AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AND GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR MOVES IN
ALONG WITH INCREASING KI VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES. THERE IS NO
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER BUT CANT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND 15C SUPPORT MAXES INTO THE MID 80S...COOLER S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT INCREASING INTO THE 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
IT WILL BECOMING A BIT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT TUESDAY
* HEAT WAVE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN ZONES MON-THURS

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS INTO THE AREA BY THE
MID TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BUILD. BUT OVERALL
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES ON
MONDAY. WESTERN FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX
OUT AND WINDS TO INCREASE NEAR 20 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE
REACHING AROUND 16C. THIS WILL YIELD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 90F.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARITIMES ON TUESDAY BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO THE REGION. THE GFS IS
MORE PRONOUNCE WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT CLOSE TO IMMEDIATE COAST.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS
COASTAL COMMUNITIES COOLER ON TUESDAY BUT WESTERN ZONES STILL
REACHING UPPER 80S NEAR 90F.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 17-19C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S. THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER
VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4 DAYS HEAT WAVE. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL
LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE AS
WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY. THURSDAY SEEMS TO THE BEST DAY FOR A CHC OF
PRECIP AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY IFR FOG DEVELOPING IN THE TYPICAL FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A FEW HOURS OF A WEAK
SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT S/SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS
SEEING GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS ON MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290749
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
349 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY POSSIBLY
BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH SLIGHT WARMING AT 850 MB
RESULTING IN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI WITH READINGS
MOSTLY 80-85 DEGREES EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP BUT MOSUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO THE N WHICH WILL BRING SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY N AREAS. OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS A BIT MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH READINGS MID TO
UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S URBAN CENTERS
AND COASTAL AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AND GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR MOVES IN
ALONG WITH INCREASING KI VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES. THERE IS NO
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER BUT CANT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND 15C SUPPORT MAXES INTO THE MID 80S...COOLER S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT INCREASING INTO THE 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
IT WILL BECOMING A BIT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT TUESDAY
* HEAT WAVE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN ZONES MON-THURS

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS INTO THE AREA BY THE
MID TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BUILD. BUT OVERALL
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES ON
MONDAY. WESTERN FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX
OUT AND WINDS TO INCREASE NEAR 20 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE
REACHING AROUND 16C. THIS WILL YIELD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 90F.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARITIMES ON TUESDAY BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO THE REGION. THE GFS IS
MORE PRONOUNCE WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT CLOSE TO IMMEDIATE COAST.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS
COASTAL COMMUNITIES COOLER ON TUESDAY BUT WESTERN ZONES STILL
REACHING UPPER 80S NEAR 90F.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 17-19C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S. THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER
VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4 DAYS HEAT WAVE. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL
LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE AS
WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY. THURSDAY SEEMS TO THE BEST DAY FOR A CHC OF
PRECIP AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY IFR FOG DEVELOPING IN THE TYPICAL FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A FEW HOURS OF A WEAK
SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT S/SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS
SEEING GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS ON MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290707
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
307 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY POSSIBLY
BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH SLIGHT WARMING AT 850 MB
RESULTING IN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI WITH READINGS
MOSTLY 80-85 DEGREES EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP BUT MOSUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO THE N WHICH WILL BRING SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY N AREAS. OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS A BIT MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH READINGS MID TO
UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S URBAN CENTERS
AND COASTAL AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AND GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR MOVES IN
ALONG WITH INCREASING KI VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES. THERE IS NO
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER BUT CANT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND 15C SUPPORT MAXES INTO THE MID 80S...COOLER S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT INCREASING INTO THE 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
IT WILL BECOMING A BIT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR A POSSIBLE BACK DOOR FRONT LATE WED
  OR THU

OVERVIEW...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO STRONGLY SIGNAL
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. INDIVIDUAL MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK SHORT WAVES CROSSING
THE REGION IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING.

ONLY TWO FEATURES OF NOTE. LOW PRES WORKS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT S ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A WIND SHIFT LINE DUE TO LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE. H85 TEMPS ONLY DROP TO +16C ACROSS E MA LATE
TUESDAY...BUT RISE BACK UP AGAIN QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT TO MOVE S-SW OUT OF MAINE AND EASTERN QUEBEC SOMETIME LATE
WED OR THU...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION.

OVERALL...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MOS
GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEAT WAVE
DURING THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING AS DEWPTS THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY
REACHING 70 ON MONDAY ALONG THE S COAST. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S...THOUGH COULD REACH TO THE LOWER 90S ON MONDAY AS H85
TEMPS RISE TO +16C TO +18C.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT SOME WEAKENING IN THE PRES PATTERN ON
TUESDAY ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT WORKING S OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO.
GFS MOST ROBUST IN KEEPING SOME PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...BUT BOTH
THE GGEM AND ECMWF ARE DRY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT AS WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE FRONT PASSES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE. WILL BE TOUGH TO GET PRECIP TO FIRE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE.

SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WORKS S-SW
TOWARD THE REGION AROUND THE LATE WED OR THU TIMEFRAME. DO HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY /INCREASED
CAPE VALUES/ SO HAVE MENTIONED SHOWERS/TSTMS. OVERALL...THOUGH...
CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. TEMPS MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES
BY FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS...BUT
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY IFR FOG DEVELOPING IN THE TYPICAL FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A FEW HOURS OF A WEAK
SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT S/SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290707
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
307 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY POSSIBLY
BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH SLIGHT WARMING AT 850 MB
RESULTING IN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI WITH READINGS
MOSTLY 80-85 DEGREES EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP BUT MOSUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO THE N WHICH WILL BRING SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY N AREAS. OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS A BIT MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH READINGS MID TO
UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S URBAN CENTERS
AND COASTAL AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AND GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR MOVES IN
ALONG WITH INCREASING KI VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES. THERE IS NO
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER BUT CANT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND 15C SUPPORT MAXES INTO THE MID 80S...COOLER S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT INCREASING INTO THE 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
IT WILL BECOMING A BIT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR A POSSIBLE BACK DOOR FRONT LATE WED
  OR THU

OVERVIEW...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO STRONGLY SIGNAL
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. INDIVIDUAL MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK SHORT WAVES CROSSING
THE REGION IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING.

ONLY TWO FEATURES OF NOTE. LOW PRES WORKS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT S ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A WIND SHIFT LINE DUE TO LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE. H85 TEMPS ONLY DROP TO +16C ACROSS E MA LATE
TUESDAY...BUT RISE BACK UP AGAIN QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT TO MOVE S-SW OUT OF MAINE AND EASTERN QUEBEC SOMETIME LATE
WED OR THU...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION.

OVERALL...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MOS
GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEAT WAVE
DURING THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING AS DEWPTS THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY
REACHING 70 ON MONDAY ALONG THE S COAST. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S...THOUGH COULD REACH TO THE LOWER 90S ON MONDAY AS H85
TEMPS RISE TO +16C TO +18C.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT SOME WEAKENING IN THE PRES PATTERN ON
TUESDAY ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT WORKING S OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO.
GFS MOST ROBUST IN KEEPING SOME PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...BUT BOTH
THE GGEM AND ECMWF ARE DRY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT AS WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE FRONT PASSES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE. WILL BE TOUGH TO GET PRECIP TO FIRE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE.

SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WORKS S-SW
TOWARD THE REGION AROUND THE LATE WED OR THU TIMEFRAME. DO HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY /INCREASED
CAPE VALUES/ SO HAVE MENTIONED SHOWERS/TSTMS. OVERALL...THOUGH...
CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. TEMPS MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES
BY FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS...BUT
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY IFR FOG DEVELOPING IN THE TYPICAL FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A FEW HOURS OF A WEAK
SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT S/SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290707
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
307 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY POSSIBLY
BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH SLIGHT WARMING AT 850 MB
RESULTING IN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI WITH READINGS
MOSTLY 80-85 DEGREES EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP BUT MOSUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO THE N WHICH WILL BRING SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY N AREAS. OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS A BIT MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH READINGS MID TO
UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S URBAN CENTERS
AND COASTAL AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AND GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR MOVES IN
ALONG WITH INCREASING KI VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES. THERE IS NO
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER BUT CANT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND 15C SUPPORT MAXES INTO THE MID 80S...COOLER S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT INCREASING INTO THE 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
IT WILL BECOMING A BIT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR A POSSIBLE BACK DOOR FRONT LATE WED
  OR THU

OVERVIEW...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO STRONGLY SIGNAL
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. INDIVIDUAL MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK SHORT WAVES CROSSING
THE REGION IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING.

ONLY TWO FEATURES OF NOTE. LOW PRES WORKS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT S ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A WIND SHIFT LINE DUE TO LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE. H85 TEMPS ONLY DROP TO +16C ACROSS E MA LATE
TUESDAY...BUT RISE BACK UP AGAIN QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT TO MOVE S-SW OUT OF MAINE AND EASTERN QUEBEC SOMETIME LATE
WED OR THU...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION.

OVERALL...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MOS
GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEAT WAVE
DURING THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING AS DEWPTS THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY
REACHING 70 ON MONDAY ALONG THE S COAST. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S...THOUGH COULD REACH TO THE LOWER 90S ON MONDAY AS H85
TEMPS RISE TO +16C TO +18C.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT SOME WEAKENING IN THE PRES PATTERN ON
TUESDAY ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT WORKING S OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO.
GFS MOST ROBUST IN KEEPING SOME PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...BUT BOTH
THE GGEM AND ECMWF ARE DRY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT AS WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE FRONT PASSES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE. WILL BE TOUGH TO GET PRECIP TO FIRE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE.

SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WORKS S-SW
TOWARD THE REGION AROUND THE LATE WED OR THU TIMEFRAME. DO HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY /INCREASED
CAPE VALUES/ SO HAVE MENTIONED SHOWERS/TSTMS. OVERALL...THOUGH...
CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. TEMPS MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES
BY FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS...BUT
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY IFR FOG DEVELOPING IN THE TYPICAL FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A FEW HOURS OF A WEAK
SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT S/SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290707
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
307 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY POSSIBLY
BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH SLIGHT WARMING AT 850 MB
RESULTING IN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI WITH READINGS
MOSTLY 80-85 DEGREES EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP BUT MOSUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO THE N WHICH WILL BRING SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY N AREAS. OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS A BIT MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH READINGS MID TO
UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S URBAN CENTERS
AND COASTAL AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AND GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR MOVES IN
ALONG WITH INCREASING KI VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES. THERE IS NO
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER BUT CANT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND 15C SUPPORT MAXES INTO THE MID 80S...COOLER S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT INCREASING INTO THE 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
IT WILL BECOMING A BIT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR A POSSIBLE BACK DOOR FRONT LATE WED
  OR THU

OVERVIEW...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO STRONGLY SIGNAL
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. INDIVIDUAL MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK SHORT WAVES CROSSING
THE REGION IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING.

ONLY TWO FEATURES OF NOTE. LOW PRES WORKS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT S ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A WIND SHIFT LINE DUE TO LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE. H85 TEMPS ONLY DROP TO +16C ACROSS E MA LATE
TUESDAY...BUT RISE BACK UP AGAIN QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT TO MOVE S-SW OUT OF MAINE AND EASTERN QUEBEC SOMETIME LATE
WED OR THU...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION.

OVERALL...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MOS
GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEAT WAVE
DURING THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING AS DEWPTS THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY
REACHING 70 ON MONDAY ALONG THE S COAST. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S...THOUGH COULD REACH TO THE LOWER 90S ON MONDAY AS H85
TEMPS RISE TO +16C TO +18C.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT SOME WEAKENING IN THE PRES PATTERN ON
TUESDAY ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT WORKING S OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO.
GFS MOST ROBUST IN KEEPING SOME PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...BUT BOTH
THE GGEM AND ECMWF ARE DRY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT AS WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE FRONT PASSES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE. WILL BE TOUGH TO GET PRECIP TO FIRE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE.

SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WORKS S-SW
TOWARD THE REGION AROUND THE LATE WED OR THU TIMEFRAME. DO HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY /INCREASED
CAPE VALUES/ SO HAVE MENTIONED SHOWERS/TSTMS. OVERALL...THOUGH...
CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. TEMPS MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES
BY FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS...BUT
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY IFR FOG DEVELOPING IN THE TYPICAL FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A FEW HOURS OF A WEAK
SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT S/SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290707
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
307 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY POSSIBLY
BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH SLIGHT WARMING AT 850 MB
RESULTING IN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI WITH READINGS
MOSTLY 80-85 DEGREES EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP BUT MOSUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO THE N WHICH WILL BRING SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY N AREAS. OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS A BIT MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH READINGS MID TO
UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S URBAN CENTERS
AND COASTAL AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AND GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR MOVES IN
ALONG WITH INCREASING KI VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES. THERE IS NO
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER BUT CANT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND 15C SUPPORT MAXES INTO THE MID 80S...COOLER S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT INCREASING INTO THE 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
IT WILL BECOMING A BIT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR A POSSIBLE BACK DOOR FRONT LATE WED
  OR THU

OVERVIEW...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO STRONGLY SIGNAL
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. INDIVIDUAL MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK SHORT WAVES CROSSING
THE REGION IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING.

ONLY TWO FEATURES OF NOTE. LOW PRES WORKS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT S ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A WIND SHIFT LINE DUE TO LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE. H85 TEMPS ONLY DROP TO +16C ACROSS E MA LATE
TUESDAY...BUT RISE BACK UP AGAIN QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT TO MOVE S-SW OUT OF MAINE AND EASTERN QUEBEC SOMETIME LATE
WED OR THU...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION.

OVERALL...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MOS
GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEAT WAVE
DURING THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING AS DEWPTS THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY
REACHING 70 ON MONDAY ALONG THE S COAST. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S...THOUGH COULD REACH TO THE LOWER 90S ON MONDAY AS H85
TEMPS RISE TO +16C TO +18C.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT SOME WEAKENING IN THE PRES PATTERN ON
TUESDAY ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT WORKING S OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO.
GFS MOST ROBUST IN KEEPING SOME PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...BUT BOTH
THE GGEM AND ECMWF ARE DRY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT AS WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE FRONT PASSES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE. WILL BE TOUGH TO GET PRECIP TO FIRE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE.

SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WORKS S-SW
TOWARD THE REGION AROUND THE LATE WED OR THU TIMEFRAME. DO HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY /INCREASED
CAPE VALUES/ SO HAVE MENTIONED SHOWERS/TSTMS. OVERALL...THOUGH...
CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. TEMPS MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES
BY FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS...BUT
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY IFR FOG DEVELOPING IN THE TYPICAL FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A FEW HOURS OF A WEAK
SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT S/SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290707
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
307 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY POSSIBLY
BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH SLIGHT WARMING AT 850 MB
RESULTING IN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI WITH READINGS
MOSTLY 80-85 DEGREES EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP BUT MOSUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO THE N WHICH WILL BRING SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY N AREAS. OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS A BIT MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH READINGS MID TO
UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S URBAN CENTERS
AND COASTAL AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AND GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR MOVES IN
ALONG WITH INCREASING KI VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES. THERE IS NO
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER BUT CANT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND 15C SUPPORT MAXES INTO THE MID 80S...COOLER S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT INCREASING INTO THE 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
IT WILL BECOMING A BIT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR A POSSIBLE BACK DOOR FRONT LATE WED
  OR THU

OVERVIEW...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO STRONGLY SIGNAL
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. INDIVIDUAL MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK SHORT WAVES CROSSING
THE REGION IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING.

ONLY TWO FEATURES OF NOTE. LOW PRES WORKS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT S ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A WIND SHIFT LINE DUE TO LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE. H85 TEMPS ONLY DROP TO +16C ACROSS E MA LATE
TUESDAY...BUT RISE BACK UP AGAIN QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT TO MOVE S-SW OUT OF MAINE AND EASTERN QUEBEC SOMETIME LATE
WED OR THU...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION.

OVERALL...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MOS
GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEAT WAVE
DURING THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING AS DEWPTS THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY
REACHING 70 ON MONDAY ALONG THE S COAST. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S...THOUGH COULD REACH TO THE LOWER 90S ON MONDAY AS H85
TEMPS RISE TO +16C TO +18C.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT SOME WEAKENING IN THE PRES PATTERN ON
TUESDAY ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT WORKING S OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO.
GFS MOST ROBUST IN KEEPING SOME PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...BUT BOTH
THE GGEM AND ECMWF ARE DRY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT AS WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE FRONT PASSES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE. WILL BE TOUGH TO GET PRECIP TO FIRE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE.

SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WORKS S-SW
TOWARD THE REGION AROUND THE LATE WED OR THU TIMEFRAME. DO HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY /INCREASED
CAPE VALUES/ SO HAVE MENTIONED SHOWERS/TSTMS. OVERALL...THOUGH...
CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. TEMPS MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES
BY FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS...BUT
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY IFR FOG DEVELOPING IN THE TYPICAL FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A FEW HOURS OF A WEAK
SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT S/SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT



000
FXUS61 KGYX 290648
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
248 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY TODAY AFTER ANY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE COAST TODAY, WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
CIRRUS...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. A SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST TO THE 70S.
OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT VALLEY FOG. HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH COOLEST TEMPS IN
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

...WARM AND QUIET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT THE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A WEAKER
DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.  A
PATTERN REALIGNMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS JET ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING SEA DROPS INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH HELPING TO GIVE IT A KICK EASTWARD WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH OVER CANADA FOLDS BENEATH RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF
GREENLAND...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE -NAO AND ASSOCIATED BLOCKING IN
THIS REGION.  DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCES IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RESULT ACROSS NOAM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STABLE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WITH THIS PATTERN AMPLIFYING AS
THE WEEK CONTINUES.  INTERESTINGLY, THIS PLACES NEW ENGLAND
INITIALLY UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH
PUSHES EAST...BUT WITH HEIGHTS LATER FALLING AS THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES.  THIS PATTERN SPELLS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
NOTABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IN CONTROL
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE PERIOD.  FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CENTER
AROUND ANY MINOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIAL RIDGE-ROLLER
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.  A FURTHER CONCERN IS JUST HOW WARM WE
WILL GET AS HEAT DOME BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: EARLY MORNING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE FEATURES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AGREEMENT STRONGEST ON DETAILS OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WITH THE GFS STILL MORE ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE
PRIMARILY IN THE DEGREE OF LATE WEEK HEAT WE WILL ACHIEVE.

INTERESTINGLY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FAR MORE BULLISH WITH
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS CLOSE
TO THE GFS SOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO.

THE DETAILS...

A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
BRUSHES THE REGION AS IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
MOISTURE IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN THAT WE/LL ALREADY
BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AFTER SUNDAY/S WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SEE LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL RESTRICT SCHC/LOW CHANCE POP MENTION
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER AIRMASS WHICH
SUGGESTS A TERRIFIC DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
SURGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  AS FLOW TRAJECTORIES ALOFT BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN LLEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS WE REACH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION.  REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZED DYNAMICAL FORCING IS APPARENT WITH SPRAWLING RIDGE
EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO CANADA.  HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LIKELY RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY /20
PERCENT/ WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EITHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RIDING
OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...OR SOME THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACTIVITY /VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE NEW
29.00Z GFS/.

TEMPERATURES:

VERY SUMMERY PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS HEIGHTS BUILD TO +1-2SIGMA WITH T8S FOLLOWING SUIT.  BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS PRODUCTS REVEALING 10-15 DEGREE SPREADS FROM THE BOTTOM
TO TOP MEMBERS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS LIKELY THE BEST WAY TO GO
HERE...GIVING A NOD TO THE RECENT TRENDS TO THE MORE BULLISH GFS.

BEYOND THIS...VERY WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN...BUT WILL TEMPER
HIGHS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION /GFS MUCH MORE ROBUST HERE THAN THE
ECMWF/...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH GRADUALLY
BUILDING HUMIDITY INDICATES DAILY MORNING FOG CONCERNS AT HIE/LEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST.  STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
/15-20KTS/ APPEAR TO BE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...JENSENIUS
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS
MARINE...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 290648
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
248 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY TODAY AFTER ANY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE COAST TODAY, WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
CIRRUS...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. A SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST TO THE 70S.
OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT VALLEY FOG. HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH COOLEST TEMPS IN
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

...WARM AND QUIET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT THE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A WEAKER
DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.  A
PATTERN REALIGNMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS JET ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING SEA DROPS INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH HELPING TO GIVE IT A KICK EASTWARD WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH OVER CANADA FOLDS BENEATH RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF
GREENLAND...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE -NAO AND ASSOCIATED BLOCKING IN
THIS REGION.  DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCES IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RESULT ACROSS NOAM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STABLE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WITH THIS PATTERN AMPLIFYING AS
THE WEEK CONTINUES.  INTERESTINGLY, THIS PLACES NEW ENGLAND
INITIALLY UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH
PUSHES EAST...BUT WITH HEIGHTS LATER FALLING AS THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES.  THIS PATTERN SPELLS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
NOTABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IN CONTROL
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE PERIOD.  FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CENTER
AROUND ANY MINOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIAL RIDGE-ROLLER
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.  A FURTHER CONCERN IS JUST HOW WARM WE
WILL GET AS HEAT DOME BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: EARLY MORNING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE FEATURES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AGREEMENT STRONGEST ON DETAILS OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WITH THE GFS STILL MORE ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE
PRIMARILY IN THE DEGREE OF LATE WEEK HEAT WE WILL ACHIEVE.

INTERESTINGLY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FAR MORE BULLISH WITH
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS CLOSE
TO THE GFS SOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO.

THE DETAILS...

A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
BRUSHES THE REGION AS IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
MOISTURE IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN THAT WE/LL ALREADY
BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AFTER SUNDAY/S WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SEE LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL RESTRICT SCHC/LOW CHANCE POP MENTION
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER AIRMASS WHICH
SUGGESTS A TERRIFIC DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
SURGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  AS FLOW TRAJECTORIES ALOFT BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN LLEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS WE REACH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION.  REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZED DYNAMICAL FORCING IS APPARENT WITH SPRAWLING RIDGE
EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO CANADA.  HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LIKELY RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY /20
PERCENT/ WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EITHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RIDING
OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...OR SOME THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACTIVITY /VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE NEW
29.00Z GFS/.

TEMPERATURES:

VERY SUMMERY PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS HEIGHTS BUILD TO +1-2SIGMA WITH T8S FOLLOWING SUIT.  BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS PRODUCTS REVEALING 10-15 DEGREE SPREADS FROM THE BOTTOM
TO TOP MEMBERS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS LIKELY THE BEST WAY TO GO
HERE...GIVING A NOD TO THE RECENT TRENDS TO THE MORE BULLISH GFS.

BEYOND THIS...VERY WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN...BUT WILL TEMPER
HIGHS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION /GFS MUCH MORE ROBUST HERE THAN THE
ECMWF/...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH GRADUALLY
BUILDING HUMIDITY INDICATES DAILY MORNING FOG CONCERNS AT HIE/LEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST.  STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
/15-20KTS/ APPEAR TO BE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...JENSENIUS
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS
MARINE...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 290648
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
248 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY TODAY AFTER ANY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE COAST TODAY, WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
CIRRUS...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. A SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST TO THE 70S.
OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT VALLEY FOG. HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH COOLEST TEMPS IN
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

...WARM AND QUIET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT THE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A WEAKER
DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.  A
PATTERN REALIGNMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS JET ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING SEA DROPS INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH HELPING TO GIVE IT A KICK EASTWARD WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH OVER CANADA FOLDS BENEATH RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF
GREENLAND...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE -NAO AND ASSOCIATED BLOCKING IN
THIS REGION.  DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCES IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RESULT ACROSS NOAM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STABLE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WITH THIS PATTERN AMPLIFYING AS
THE WEEK CONTINUES.  INTERESTINGLY, THIS PLACES NEW ENGLAND
INITIALLY UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH
PUSHES EAST...BUT WITH HEIGHTS LATER FALLING AS THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES.  THIS PATTERN SPELLS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
NOTABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IN CONTROL
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE PERIOD.  FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CENTER
AROUND ANY MINOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIAL RIDGE-ROLLER
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.  A FURTHER CONCERN IS JUST HOW WARM WE
WILL GET AS HEAT DOME BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: EARLY MORNING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE FEATURES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AGREEMENT STRONGEST ON DETAILS OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WITH THE GFS STILL MORE ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE
PRIMARILY IN THE DEGREE OF LATE WEEK HEAT WE WILL ACHIEVE.

INTERESTINGLY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FAR MORE BULLISH WITH
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS CLOSE
TO THE GFS SOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO.

THE DETAILS...

A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
BRUSHES THE REGION AS IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
MOISTURE IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN THAT WE/LL ALREADY
BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AFTER SUNDAY/S WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SEE LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL RESTRICT SCHC/LOW CHANCE POP MENTION
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER AIRMASS WHICH
SUGGESTS A TERRIFIC DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
SURGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  AS FLOW TRAJECTORIES ALOFT BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN LLEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS WE REACH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION.  REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZED DYNAMICAL FORCING IS APPARENT WITH SPRAWLING RIDGE
EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO CANADA.  HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LIKELY RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY /20
PERCENT/ WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EITHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RIDING
OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...OR SOME THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACTIVITY /VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE NEW
29.00Z GFS/.

TEMPERATURES:

VERY SUMMERY PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS HEIGHTS BUILD TO +1-2SIGMA WITH T8S FOLLOWING SUIT.  BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS PRODUCTS REVEALING 10-15 DEGREE SPREADS FROM THE BOTTOM
TO TOP MEMBERS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS LIKELY THE BEST WAY TO GO
HERE...GIVING A NOD TO THE RECENT TRENDS TO THE MORE BULLISH GFS.

BEYOND THIS...VERY WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN...BUT WILL TEMPER
HIGHS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION /GFS MUCH MORE ROBUST HERE THAN THE
ECMWF/...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH GRADUALLY
BUILDING HUMIDITY INDICATES DAILY MORNING FOG CONCERNS AT HIE/LEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST.  STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
/15-20KTS/ APPEAR TO BE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...JENSENIUS
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS
MARINE...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 290648
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
248 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY TODAY AFTER ANY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE COAST TODAY, WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
CIRRUS...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. A SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST TO THE 70S.
OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT VALLEY FOG. HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH COOLEST TEMPS IN
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

...WARM AND QUIET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT THE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A WEAKER
DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.  A
PATTERN REALIGNMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS JET ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING SEA DROPS INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH HELPING TO GIVE IT A KICK EASTWARD WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH OVER CANADA FOLDS BENEATH RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF
GREENLAND...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE -NAO AND ASSOCIATED BLOCKING IN
THIS REGION.  DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCES IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RESULT ACROSS NOAM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STABLE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WITH THIS PATTERN AMPLIFYING AS
THE WEEK CONTINUES.  INTERESTINGLY, THIS PLACES NEW ENGLAND
INITIALLY UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH
PUSHES EAST...BUT WITH HEIGHTS LATER FALLING AS THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES.  THIS PATTERN SPELLS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
NOTABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IN CONTROL
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE PERIOD.  FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CENTER
AROUND ANY MINOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIAL RIDGE-ROLLER
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.  A FURTHER CONCERN IS JUST HOW WARM WE
WILL GET AS HEAT DOME BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: EARLY MORNING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE FEATURES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AGREEMENT STRONGEST ON DETAILS OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WITH THE GFS STILL MORE ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE
PRIMARILY IN THE DEGREE OF LATE WEEK HEAT WE WILL ACHIEVE.

INTERESTINGLY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FAR MORE BULLISH WITH
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS CLOSE
TO THE GFS SOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO.

THE DETAILS...

A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
BRUSHES THE REGION AS IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
MOISTURE IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN THAT WE/LL ALREADY
BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AFTER SUNDAY/S WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SEE LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL RESTRICT SCHC/LOW CHANCE POP MENTION
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER AIRMASS WHICH
SUGGESTS A TERRIFIC DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
SURGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  AS FLOW TRAJECTORIES ALOFT BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN LLEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS WE REACH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION.  REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZED DYNAMICAL FORCING IS APPARENT WITH SPRAWLING RIDGE
EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO CANADA.  HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LIKELY RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY /20
PERCENT/ WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EITHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RIDING
OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...OR SOME THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACTIVITY /VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE NEW
29.00Z GFS/.

TEMPERATURES:

VERY SUMMERY PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS HEIGHTS BUILD TO +1-2SIGMA WITH T8S FOLLOWING SUIT.  BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS PRODUCTS REVEALING 10-15 DEGREE SPREADS FROM THE BOTTOM
TO TOP MEMBERS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS LIKELY THE BEST WAY TO GO
HERE...GIVING A NOD TO THE RECENT TRENDS TO THE MORE BULLISH GFS.

BEYOND THIS...VERY WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN...BUT WILL TEMPER
HIGHS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION /GFS MUCH MORE ROBUST HERE THAN THE
ECMWF/...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH GRADUALLY
BUILDING HUMIDITY INDICATES DAILY MORNING FOG CONCERNS AT HIE/LEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST.  STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
/15-20KTS/ APPEAR TO BE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...JENSENIUS
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS
MARINE...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 290648
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
248 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY TODAY AFTER ANY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE COAST TODAY, WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
CIRRUS...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. A SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST TO THE 70S.
OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT VALLEY FOG. HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH COOLEST TEMPS IN
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

...WARM AND QUIET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT THE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A WEAKER
DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.  A
PATTERN REALIGNMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS JET ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING SEA DROPS INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH HELPING TO GIVE IT A KICK EASTWARD WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH OVER CANADA FOLDS BENEATH RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF
GREENLAND...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE -NAO AND ASSOCIATED BLOCKING IN
THIS REGION.  DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCES IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RESULT ACROSS NOAM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STABLE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WITH THIS PATTERN AMPLIFYING AS
THE WEEK CONTINUES.  INTERESTINGLY, THIS PLACES NEW ENGLAND
INITIALLY UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH
PUSHES EAST...BUT WITH HEIGHTS LATER FALLING AS THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES.  THIS PATTERN SPELLS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
NOTABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IN CONTROL
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE PERIOD.  FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CENTER
AROUND ANY MINOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIAL RIDGE-ROLLER
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.  A FURTHER CONCERN IS JUST HOW WARM WE
WILL GET AS HEAT DOME BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: EARLY MORNING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE FEATURES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AGREEMENT STRONGEST ON DETAILS OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WITH THE GFS STILL MORE ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE
PRIMARILY IN THE DEGREE OF LATE WEEK HEAT WE WILL ACHIEVE.

INTERESTINGLY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FAR MORE BULLISH WITH
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS CLOSE
TO THE GFS SOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO.

THE DETAILS...

A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
BRUSHES THE REGION AS IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
MOISTURE IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN THAT WE/LL ALREADY
BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AFTER SUNDAY/S WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SEE LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL RESTRICT SCHC/LOW CHANCE POP MENTION
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER AIRMASS WHICH
SUGGESTS A TERRIFIC DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
SURGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  AS FLOW TRAJECTORIES ALOFT BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN LLEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS WE REACH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION.  REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZED DYNAMICAL FORCING IS APPARENT WITH SPRAWLING RIDGE
EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO CANADA.  HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LIKELY RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY /20
PERCENT/ WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EITHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RIDING
OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...OR SOME THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACTIVITY /VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE NEW
29.00Z GFS/.

TEMPERATURES:

VERY SUMMERY PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS HEIGHTS BUILD TO +1-2SIGMA WITH T8S FOLLOWING SUIT.  BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS PRODUCTS REVEALING 10-15 DEGREE SPREADS FROM THE BOTTOM
TO TOP MEMBERS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS LIKELY THE BEST WAY TO GO
HERE...GIVING A NOD TO THE RECENT TRENDS TO THE MORE BULLISH GFS.

BEYOND THIS...VERY WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN...BUT WILL TEMPER
HIGHS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION /GFS MUCH MORE ROBUST HERE THAN THE
ECMWF/...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH GRADUALLY
BUILDING HUMIDITY INDICATES DAILY MORNING FOG CONCERNS AT HIE/LEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST.  STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
/15-20KTS/ APPEAR TO BE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...JENSENIUS
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS
MARINE...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290533
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
133 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS
WEEKEND BUT WITH A WARMING TREND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER ALONG
WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
FRONT MAY BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING COASTAL COOLING AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
PATCHY RADIATION FOG STARTING TO DEVELOP IN A FEW SPOTS AND IT
MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE IN THE NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MAY SEE SOME UPPER 40S IN
THE COLDER RADIATORS OF W MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THEN TODAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD TOP OUT
MAINLY IN THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 60...SO STILL QUITE
COMFORTABLE FOR THE LAST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/FORCING EXPECT OUR WEATHER TO REMAIN DRY.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD
NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS WHILE
URBAN CENTERS SHOULD SEE LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
EXPECT MORE LATE NIGHT PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR A POSSIBLE BACK DOOR FRONT LATE WED
  OR THU

OVERVIEW...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO STRONGLY SIGNAL
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. INDIVIDUAL MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK SHORT WAVES CROSSING
THE REGION IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING.

ONLY TWO FEATURES OF NOTE. LOW PRES WORKS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT S ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A WIND SHIFT LINE DUE TO LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE. H85 TEMPS ONLY DROP TO +16C ACROSS E MA LATE
TUESDAY...BUT RISE BACK UP AGAIN QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT TO MOVE S-SW OUT OF MAINE AND EASTERN QUEBEC SOMETIME LATE
WED OR THU...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION.

OVERALL...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MOS
GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEAT WAVE
DURING THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING AS DEWPTS THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY
REACHING 70 ON MONDAY ALONG THE S COAST. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S...THOUGH COULD REACH TO THE LOWER 90S ON MONDAY AS H85
TEMPS RISE TO +16C TO +18C.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT SOME WEAKENING IN THE PRES PATTERN ON
TUESDAY ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT WORKING S OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO.
GFS MOST ROBUST IN KEEPING SOME PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...BUT BOTH
THE GGEM AND ECMWF ARE DRY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT AS WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE FRONT PASSES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE. WILL BE TOUGH TO GET PRECIP TO FIRE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE.

SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WORKS S-SW
TOWARD THE REGION AROUND THE LATE WED OR THU TIMEFRAME. DO HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY /INCREASED
CAPE VALUES/ SO HAVE MENTIONED SHOWERS/TSTMS. OVERALL...THOUGH...
CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. TEMPS MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES
BY FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS...BUT
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY IFR FOG DEVELOPING IN THE TYPICAL FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A FEW HOURS OF A WEAK
SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
HAVE A SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290533
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
133 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS
WEEKEND BUT WITH A WARMING TREND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER ALONG
WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
FRONT MAY BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING COASTAL COOLING AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
PATCHY RADIATION FOG STARTING TO DEVELOP IN A FEW SPOTS AND IT
MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE IN THE NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MAY SEE SOME UPPER 40S IN
THE COLDER RADIATORS OF W MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THEN TODAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD TOP OUT
MAINLY IN THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 60...SO STILL QUITE
COMFORTABLE FOR THE LAST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/FORCING EXPECT OUR WEATHER TO REMAIN DRY.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD
NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS WHILE
URBAN CENTERS SHOULD SEE LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
EXPECT MORE LATE NIGHT PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR A POSSIBLE BACK DOOR FRONT LATE WED
  OR THU

OVERVIEW...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO STRONGLY SIGNAL
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. INDIVIDUAL MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK SHORT WAVES CROSSING
THE REGION IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING.

ONLY TWO FEATURES OF NOTE. LOW PRES WORKS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT S ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A WIND SHIFT LINE DUE TO LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE. H85 TEMPS ONLY DROP TO +16C ACROSS E MA LATE
TUESDAY...BUT RISE BACK UP AGAIN QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT TO MOVE S-SW OUT OF MAINE AND EASTERN QUEBEC SOMETIME LATE
WED OR THU...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION.

OVERALL...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MOS
GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEAT WAVE
DURING THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING AS DEWPTS THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY
REACHING 70 ON MONDAY ALONG THE S COAST. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S...THOUGH COULD REACH TO THE LOWER 90S ON MONDAY AS H85
TEMPS RISE TO +16C TO +18C.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT SOME WEAKENING IN THE PRES PATTERN ON
TUESDAY ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT WORKING S OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO.
GFS MOST ROBUST IN KEEPING SOME PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...BUT BOTH
THE GGEM AND ECMWF ARE DRY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT AS WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE FRONT PASSES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE. WILL BE TOUGH TO GET PRECIP TO FIRE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE.

SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WORKS S-SW
TOWARD THE REGION AROUND THE LATE WED OR THU TIMEFRAME. DO HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY /INCREASED
CAPE VALUES/ SO HAVE MENTIONED SHOWERS/TSTMS. OVERALL...THOUGH...
CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. TEMPS MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES
BY FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS...BUT
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY IFR FOG DEVELOPING IN THE TYPICAL FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A FEW HOURS OF A WEAK
SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
HAVE A SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290130
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
930 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS
WEEKEND BUT WITH A WARMING TREND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER ALONG
WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
FRONT MAY BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING COASTAL COOLING AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
STILL A FEW CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION...OTHERWISE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. PATCHY RADIATION
FOG LIKELY IN THE NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. CURRENT FORECAST
ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR
AUGUST STANDARDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT.
LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 50 AND 55 IN THE NORMALLY
COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
MOST OF THE URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THEN TODAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD TOP OUT
MAINLY IN THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 60...SO STILL QUITE
COMFORTABLE FOR THE LAST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/FORCING EXPECT OUR WEATHER TO REMAIN DRY.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD
NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS WHILE
URBAN CENTERS SHOULD SEE LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
EXPECT MORE LATE NIGHT PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR A POSSIBLE BACK DOOR FRONT LATE WED
  OR THU

OVERVIEW...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO STRONGLY SIGNAL
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. INDIVIDUAL MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK SHORT WAVES CROSSING
THE REGION IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING.

ONLY TWO FEATURES OF NOTE. LOW PRES WORKS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT S ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A WIND SHIFT LINE DUE TO LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE. H85 TEMPS ONLY DROP TO +16C ACROSS E MA LATE
TUESDAY...BUT RISE BACK UP AGAIN QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT TO MOVE S-SW OUT OF MAINE AND EASTERN QUEBEC SOMETIME LATE
WED OR THU...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION.

OVERALL...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MOS
GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEAT WAVE
DURING THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING AS DEWPTS THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY
REACHING 70 ON MONDAY ALONG THE S COAST. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S...THOUGH COULD REACH TO THE LOWER 90S ON MONDAY AS H85
TEMPS RISE TO +16C TO +18C.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT SOME WEAKENING IN THE PRES PATTERN ON
TUESDAY ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT WORKING S OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO.
GFS MOST ROBUST IN KEEPING SOME PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...BUT BOTH
THE GGEM AND ECMWF ARE DRY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT AS WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE FRONT PASSES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE. WILL BE TOUGH TO GET PRECIP TO FIRE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE.

SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WORKS S-SW
TOWARD THE REGION AROUND THE LATE WED OR THU TIMEFRAME. DO HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY /INCREASED
CAPE VALUES/ SO HAVE MENTIONED SHOWERS/TSTMS. OVERALL...THOUGH...
CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. TEMPS MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES
BY FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS...BUT
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES SHOULD KICK
OUT OF TERMINAL BY 02Z THIS EVENING. A FEW HOURS OF SEA BREEZES
MAY OCCUR ON SATURDAY...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON DEVELOPING NOT AS
HIGH AS TODAY AND SHOULD NOT LAST AS LONG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
HAVE A SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290130
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
930 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS
WEEKEND BUT WITH A WARMING TREND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER ALONG
WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
FRONT MAY BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING COASTAL COOLING AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
STILL A FEW CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION...OTHERWISE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. PATCHY RADIATION
FOG LIKELY IN THE NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. CURRENT FORECAST
ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR
AUGUST STANDARDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT.
LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 50 AND 55 IN THE NORMALLY
COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
MOST OF THE URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THEN TODAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD TOP OUT
MAINLY IN THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 60...SO STILL QUITE
COMFORTABLE FOR THE LAST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/FORCING EXPECT OUR WEATHER TO REMAIN DRY.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD
NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS WHILE
URBAN CENTERS SHOULD SEE LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
EXPECT MORE LATE NIGHT PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR A POSSIBLE BACK DOOR FRONT LATE WED
  OR THU

OVERVIEW...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO STRONGLY SIGNAL
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. INDIVIDUAL MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK SHORT WAVES CROSSING
THE REGION IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING.

ONLY TWO FEATURES OF NOTE. LOW PRES WORKS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT S ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A WIND SHIFT LINE DUE TO LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE. H85 TEMPS ONLY DROP TO +16C ACROSS E MA LATE
TUESDAY...BUT RISE BACK UP AGAIN QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT TO MOVE S-SW OUT OF MAINE AND EASTERN QUEBEC SOMETIME LATE
WED OR THU...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION.

OVERALL...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MOS
GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEAT WAVE
DURING THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING AS DEWPTS THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY
REACHING 70 ON MONDAY ALONG THE S COAST. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S...THOUGH COULD REACH TO THE LOWER 90S ON MONDAY AS H85
TEMPS RISE TO +16C TO +18C.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT SOME WEAKENING IN THE PRES PATTERN ON
TUESDAY ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT WORKING S OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO.
GFS MOST ROBUST IN KEEPING SOME PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...BUT BOTH
THE GGEM AND ECMWF ARE DRY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT AS WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE FRONT PASSES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE. WILL BE TOUGH TO GET PRECIP TO FIRE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE.

SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WORKS S-SW
TOWARD THE REGION AROUND THE LATE WED OR THU TIMEFRAME. DO HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY /INCREASED
CAPE VALUES/ SO HAVE MENTIONED SHOWERS/TSTMS. OVERALL...THOUGH...
CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. TEMPS MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES
BY FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS...BUT
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES SHOULD KICK
OUT OF TERMINAL BY 02Z THIS EVENING. A FEW HOURS OF SEA BREEZES
MAY OCCUR ON SATURDAY...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON DEVELOPING NOT AS
HIGH AS TODAY AND SHOULD NOT LAST AS LONG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
HAVE A SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290130
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
930 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS
WEEKEND BUT WITH A WARMING TREND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER ALONG
WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
FRONT MAY BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING COASTAL COOLING AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
STILL A FEW CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION...OTHERWISE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. PATCHY RADIATION
FOG LIKELY IN THE NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. CURRENT FORECAST
ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR
AUGUST STANDARDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT.
LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 50 AND 55 IN THE NORMALLY
COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
MOST OF THE URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THEN TODAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD TOP OUT
MAINLY IN THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 60...SO STILL QUITE
COMFORTABLE FOR THE LAST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/FORCING EXPECT OUR WEATHER TO REMAIN DRY.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD
NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS WHILE
URBAN CENTERS SHOULD SEE LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
EXPECT MORE LATE NIGHT PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR A POSSIBLE BACK DOOR FRONT LATE WED
  OR THU

OVERVIEW...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO STRONGLY SIGNAL
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. INDIVIDUAL MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK SHORT WAVES CROSSING
THE REGION IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING.

ONLY TWO FEATURES OF NOTE. LOW PRES WORKS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT S ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A WIND SHIFT LINE DUE TO LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE. H85 TEMPS ONLY DROP TO +16C ACROSS E MA LATE
TUESDAY...BUT RISE BACK UP AGAIN QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT TO MOVE S-SW OUT OF MAINE AND EASTERN QUEBEC SOMETIME LATE
WED OR THU...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION.

OVERALL...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MOS
GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEAT WAVE
DURING THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING AS DEWPTS THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY
REACHING 70 ON MONDAY ALONG THE S COAST. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S...THOUGH COULD REACH TO THE LOWER 90S ON MONDAY AS H85
TEMPS RISE TO +16C TO +18C.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT SOME WEAKENING IN THE PRES PATTERN ON
TUESDAY ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT WORKING S OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO.
GFS MOST ROBUST IN KEEPING SOME PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...BUT BOTH
THE GGEM AND ECMWF ARE DRY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT AS WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE FRONT PASSES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE. WILL BE TOUGH TO GET PRECIP TO FIRE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE.

SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WORKS S-SW
TOWARD THE REGION AROUND THE LATE WED OR THU TIMEFRAME. DO HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY /INCREASED
CAPE VALUES/ SO HAVE MENTIONED SHOWERS/TSTMS. OVERALL...THOUGH...
CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. TEMPS MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES
BY FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS...BUT
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES SHOULD KICK
OUT OF TERMINAL BY 02Z THIS EVENING. A FEW HOURS OF SEA BREEZES
MAY OCCUR ON SATURDAY...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON DEVELOPING NOT AS
HIGH AS TODAY AND SHOULD NOT LAST AS LONG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
HAVE A SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KGYX 290054 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
854 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF
ON TUESDAY WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
CLEAR AND CALM WEATHER OUT THERE TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY
IN THE 60S AND 50S IN MOST SPOTS. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS AND
NOCTURNAL CURVE BASED ON A BLEND OF MESOMODELS...BUT OVERALL IT
DID NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH. FOG SHOULD BE DEVELOPING SHORTLY. SOME
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES SHORT WAVE MAY REACH US BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... JUST A QUICK ADJUSTMENT TO CLOUD COVER
FOR MOUNT WASHINGTON. RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH READINGS BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE LOWER 50S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TRANSPORTING WARM AND MOIST AIR BACK INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE 80S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY... ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN DRY.
IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO HIGHER DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM IT LOOKS LIKE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S EACH DAY AS 500 RIDGE PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VALLEY FOG LIKELY AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD AND
POSSIBLE AT CONCORD AS WELL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...HAWLEY



000
FXUS61 KGYX 290054 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
854 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF
ON TUESDAY WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
CLEAR AND CALM WEATHER OUT THERE TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY
IN THE 60S AND 50S IN MOST SPOTS. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS AND
NOCTURNAL CURVE BASED ON A BLEND OF MESOMODELS...BUT OVERALL IT
DID NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH. FOG SHOULD BE DEVELOPING SHORTLY. SOME
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES SHORT WAVE MAY REACH US BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... JUST A QUICK ADJUSTMENT TO CLOUD COVER
FOR MOUNT WASHINGTON. RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH READINGS BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE LOWER 50S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TRANSPORTING WARM AND MOIST AIR BACK INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE 80S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY... ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN DRY.
IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO HIGHER DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM IT LOOKS LIKE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S EACH DAY AS 500 RIDGE PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VALLEY FOG LIKELY AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD AND
POSSIBLE AT CONCORD AS WELL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...HAWLEY




000
FXUS61 KGYX 290054 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
854 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF
ON TUESDAY WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
CLEAR AND CALM WEATHER OUT THERE TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY
IN THE 60S AND 50S IN MOST SPOTS. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS AND
NOCTURNAL CURVE BASED ON A BLEND OF MESOMODELS...BUT OVERALL IT
DID NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH. FOG SHOULD BE DEVELOPING SHORTLY. SOME
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES SHORT WAVE MAY REACH US BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... JUST A QUICK ADJUSTMENT TO CLOUD COVER
FOR MOUNT WASHINGTON. RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH READINGS BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE LOWER 50S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TRANSPORTING WARM AND MOIST AIR BACK INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE 80S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY... ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN DRY.
IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO HIGHER DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM IT LOOKS LIKE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S EACH DAY AS 500 RIDGE PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VALLEY FOG LIKELY AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD AND
POSSIBLE AT CONCORD AS WELL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...HAWLEY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 282336
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
736 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS
WEEKEND BUT WITH A WARMING TREND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER ALONG
WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
FRONT MAY BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING COASTAL COOLING AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

730 PM UPDATE...

FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING OVER THE LAST
HOUR OR TWO AS THE SUN LOWERED TO THE HORIZON. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY HIGH THIN CLOUDS THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM CENTRAL NY STATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

HAVE KEPT MENTION OF LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG THAT MAY DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INLAND AREAS. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS
FORECAST ON TARGET. HAVE UPDATED THE NEAR TERM TO BRING CONDITIONS
CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR
AUGUST STANDARDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT.
LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 50 AND 55 IN THE NORMALLY
COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
MOST OF THE URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THEN TODAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD TOP OUT
MAINLY IN THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 60...SO STILL QUITE
COMFORTABLE FOR THE LAST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/FORCING EXPECT OUR WEATHER TO REMAIN DRY.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD
NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS WHILE
URBAN CENTERS SHOULD SEE LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
EXPECT MORE LATE NIGHT PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR A POSSIBLE BACK DOOR FRONT LATE WED
  OR THU

OVERVIEW...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO STRONGLY SIGNAL
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. INDIVIDUAL MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK SHORT WAVES CROSSING
THE REGION IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING.

ONLY TWO FEATURES OF NOTE. LOW PRES WORKS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT S ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A WIND SHIFT LINE DUE TO LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE. H85 TEMPS ONLY DROP TO +16C ACROSS E MA LATE
TUESDAY...BUT RISE BACK UP AGAIN QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT TO MOVE S-SW OUT OF MAINE AND EASTERN QUEBEC SOMETIME LATE
WED OR THU...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION.

OVERALL...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MOS
GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEAT WAVE
DURING THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING AS DEWPTS THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY
REACHING 70 ON MONDAY ALONG THE S COAST. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S...THOUGH COULD REACH TO THE LOWER 90S ON MONDAY AS H85
TEMPS RISE TO +16C TO +18C.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT SOME WEAKENING IN THE PRES PATTERN ON
TUESDAY ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT WORKING S OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO.
GFS MOST ROBUST IN KEEPING SOME PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...BUT BOTH
THE GGEM AND ECMWF ARE DRY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT AS WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE FRONT PASSES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE. WILL BE TOUGH TO GET PRECIP TO FIRE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE.

SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WORKS S-SW
TOWARD THE REGION AROUND THE LATE WED OR THU TIMEFRAME. DO HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY /INCREASED
CAPE VALUES/ SO HAVE MENTIONED SHOWERS/TSTMS. OVERALL...THOUGH...
CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. TEMPS MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES
BY FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS...BUT
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES SHOULD KICK
OUT OF TERMINAL BY 02Z THIS EVENING. A FEW HOURS OF SEA BREEZES
MAY OCCUR ON SATURDAY...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON DEVELOPING NOT AS
HIGH AS TODAY AND SHOULD NOT LAST AS LONG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
HAVE A SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 282336
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
736 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS
WEEKEND BUT WITH A WARMING TREND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER ALONG
WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
FRONT MAY BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING COASTAL COOLING AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

730 PM UPDATE...

FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING OVER THE LAST
HOUR OR TWO AS THE SUN LOWERED TO THE HORIZON. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY HIGH THIN CLOUDS THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM CENTRAL NY STATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

HAVE KEPT MENTION OF LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG THAT MAY DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INLAND AREAS. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS
FORECAST ON TARGET. HAVE UPDATED THE NEAR TERM TO BRING CONDITIONS
CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR
AUGUST STANDARDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT.
LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 50 AND 55 IN THE NORMALLY
COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
MOST OF THE URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THEN TODAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD TOP OUT
MAINLY IN THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 60...SO STILL QUITE
COMFORTABLE FOR THE LAST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/FORCING EXPECT OUR WEATHER TO REMAIN DRY.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD
NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS WHILE
URBAN CENTERS SHOULD SEE LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
EXPECT MORE LATE NIGHT PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR A POSSIBLE BACK DOOR FRONT LATE WED
  OR THU

OVERVIEW...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO STRONGLY SIGNAL
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. INDIVIDUAL MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK SHORT WAVES CROSSING
THE REGION IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING.

ONLY TWO FEATURES OF NOTE. LOW PRES WORKS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT S ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A WIND SHIFT LINE DUE TO LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE. H85 TEMPS ONLY DROP TO +16C ACROSS E MA LATE
TUESDAY...BUT RISE BACK UP AGAIN QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT TO MOVE S-SW OUT OF MAINE AND EASTERN QUEBEC SOMETIME LATE
WED OR THU...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION.

OVERALL...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MOS
GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEAT WAVE
DURING THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING AS DEWPTS THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY
REACHING 70 ON MONDAY ALONG THE S COAST. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S...THOUGH COULD REACH TO THE LOWER 90S ON MONDAY AS H85
TEMPS RISE TO +16C TO +18C.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT SOME WEAKENING IN THE PRES PATTERN ON
TUESDAY ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT WORKING S OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO.
GFS MOST ROBUST IN KEEPING SOME PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...BUT BOTH
THE GGEM AND ECMWF ARE DRY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT AS WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE FRONT PASSES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE. WILL BE TOUGH TO GET PRECIP TO FIRE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE.

SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WORKS S-SW
TOWARD THE REGION AROUND THE LATE WED OR THU TIMEFRAME. DO HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY /INCREASED
CAPE VALUES/ SO HAVE MENTIONED SHOWERS/TSTMS. OVERALL...THOUGH...
CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. TEMPS MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES
BY FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS...BUT
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES SHOULD KICK
OUT OF TERMINAL BY 02Z THIS EVENING. A FEW HOURS OF SEA BREEZES
MAY OCCUR ON SATURDAY...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON DEVELOPING NOT AS
HIGH AS TODAY AND SHOULD NOT LAST AS LONG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
HAVE A SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 282102 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
502 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF
ON TUESDAY WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
JUST A QUICK ADJUSTMENT TO CLOUD COVER FOR MOUNT WASHINGTON.
RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF
QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH READINGS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 50S WITH
A FEW UPPER 40S.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO SET UP TONIGHT. AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO A CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY DID THIS MORNING... WITH MID 40S TO
MID 50S COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO BE A LITTLE
MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TRANSPORTING WARM AND MOIST AIR BACK INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE 80S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY... ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN DRY.
IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO HIGHER DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM IT LOOKS LIKE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S EACH DAY AS 500 RIDGE PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VALLEY FOG LIKELY AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD AND
POSSIBLE AT CONCORD AS WELL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...HAWLEY




000
FXUS61 KGYX 282102 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
502 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF
ON TUESDAY WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
JUST A QUICK ADJUSTMENT TO CLOUD COVER FOR MOUNT WASHINGTON.
RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF
QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH READINGS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 50S WITH
A FEW UPPER 40S.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO SET UP TONIGHT. AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO A CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY DID THIS MORNING... WITH MID 40S TO
MID 50S COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO BE A LITTLE
MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TRANSPORTING WARM AND MOIST AIR BACK INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE 80S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY... ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN DRY.
IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO HIGHER DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM IT LOOKS LIKE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S EACH DAY AS 500 RIDGE PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VALLEY FOG LIKELY AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD AND
POSSIBLE AT CONCORD AS WELL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...HAWLEY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 282022
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
422 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS
WEEKEND BUT WITH A WARMING TREND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER ALONG
WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
FRONT MAY BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING COASTAL COOLING AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR AUGUST STANDARDS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT
BETWEEN 50 AND 55 IN THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN MOST OF THE URBAN CENTERS. PATCHY
GROUND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THEN TODAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD TOP OUT
MAINLY IN THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 60...SO STILL QUITE
COMFORTABLE FOR THE LAST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/FORCING EXPECT OUR WEATHER TO REMAIN DRY.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD
NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS WHILE
URBAN CENTERS SHOULD SEE LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
EXPECT MORE LATE NIGHT PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR A POSSIBLE BACK DOOR FRONT LATE WED
  OR THU

OVERVIEW...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO STRONGLY SIGNAL
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. INDIVIDUAL MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK SHORT WAVES CROSSING
THE REGION IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING.

ONLY TWO FEATURES OF NOTE. LOW PRES WORKS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT S ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A WIND SHIFT LINE DUE TO LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE. H85 TEMPS ONLY DROP TO +16C ACROSS E MA LATE
TUESDAY...BUT RISE BACK UP AGAIN QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT TO MOVE S-SW OUT OF MAINE AND EASTERN QUEBEC SOMETIME LATE
WED OR THU...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION.

OVERALL...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MOS
GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEAT WAVE
DURING THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING AS DEWPTS THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY
REACHING 70 ON MONDAY ALONG THE S COAST. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S...THOUGH COULD REACH TO THE LOWER 90S ON MONDAY AS H85
TEMPS RISE TO +16C TO +18C.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT SOME WEAKENING IN THE PRES PATTERN ON
TUESDAY ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT WORKING S OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO.
GFS MOST ROBUST IN KEEPING SOME PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...BUT BOTH
THE GGEM AND ECMWF ARE DRY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT AS WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE FRONT PASSES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE. WILL BE TOUGH TO GET PRECIP TO FIRE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE.

SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WORKS S-SW
TOWARD THE REGION AROUND THE LATE WED OR THU TIMEFRAME. DO HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY /INCREASED
CAPE VALUES/ SO HAVE MENTIONED SHOWERS/TSTMS. OVERALL...THOUGH...
CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. TEMPS MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES
BY FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS...BUT
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES COME TO AN END
BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS EVENING.  A FEW HOURS OF SEA BREEZES MAY
OCCUR ON SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THEM DEVELOPING IS NOT AS HIGH
AS THEY WERE TODAY AND THEY SHOULD NOT LAST AS LONG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
HAVE A SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 282022
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
422 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS
WEEKEND BUT WITH A WARMING TREND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER ALONG
WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
FRONT MAY BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING COASTAL COOLING AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR AUGUST STANDARDS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT
BETWEEN 50 AND 55 IN THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN MOST OF THE URBAN CENTERS. PATCHY
GROUND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THEN TODAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD TOP OUT
MAINLY IN THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 60...SO STILL QUITE
COMFORTABLE FOR THE LAST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/FORCING EXPECT OUR WEATHER TO REMAIN DRY.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD
NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS WHILE
URBAN CENTERS SHOULD SEE LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
EXPECT MORE LATE NIGHT PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR A POSSIBLE BACK DOOR FRONT LATE WED
  OR THU

OVERVIEW...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO STRONGLY SIGNAL
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. INDIVIDUAL MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK SHORT WAVES CROSSING
THE REGION IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING.

ONLY TWO FEATURES OF NOTE. LOW PRES WORKS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT S ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A WIND SHIFT LINE DUE TO LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE. H85 TEMPS ONLY DROP TO +16C ACROSS E MA LATE
TUESDAY...BUT RISE BACK UP AGAIN QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT TO MOVE S-SW OUT OF MAINE AND EASTERN QUEBEC SOMETIME LATE
WED OR THU...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION.

OVERALL...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MOS
GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEAT WAVE
DURING THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING AS DEWPTS THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY
REACHING 70 ON MONDAY ALONG THE S COAST. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S...THOUGH COULD REACH TO THE LOWER 90S ON MONDAY AS H85
TEMPS RISE TO +16C TO +18C.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT SOME WEAKENING IN THE PRES PATTERN ON
TUESDAY ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT WORKING S OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO.
GFS MOST ROBUST IN KEEPING SOME PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...BUT BOTH
THE GGEM AND ECMWF ARE DRY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT AS WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE FRONT PASSES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE. WILL BE TOUGH TO GET PRECIP TO FIRE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE.

SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WORKS S-SW
TOWARD THE REGION AROUND THE LATE WED OR THU TIMEFRAME. DO HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY /INCREASED
CAPE VALUES/ SO HAVE MENTIONED SHOWERS/TSTMS. OVERALL...THOUGH...
CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. TEMPS MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES
BY FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS...BUT
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES COME TO AN END
BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS EVENING.  A FEW HOURS OF SEA BREEZES MAY
OCCUR ON SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THEM DEVELOPING IS NOT AS HIGH
AS THEY WERE TODAY AND THEY SHOULD NOT LAST AS LONG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
HAVE A SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281921
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF
ON TUESDAY WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO SET UP TONIGHT. AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO A CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY DID THIS MORNING... WITH MID 40S TO
MID 50S COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO BE A LITTLE
MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TRANSPORTING WARM AND MOIST AIR BACK INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE 80S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY... ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN DRY.
IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM IT LOOKS LIKE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S EACH DAY AS 500 RIDGE PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VALLEY FOG LIKELY AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD AND
POSSIBLE AT CONCORD AS WELL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BECKER
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...HAWLEY
AVIATION...HAWLEY/KIMBLE
MARINE...HAWLEY/KIMBLE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 281921
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF
ON TUESDAY WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO SET UP TONIGHT. AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO A CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY DID THIS MORNING... WITH MID 40S TO
MID 50S COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO BE A LITTLE
MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TRANSPORTING WARM AND MOIST AIR BACK INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE 80S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY... ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN DRY.
IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM IT LOOKS LIKE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S EACH DAY AS 500 RIDGE PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VALLEY FOG LIKELY AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD AND
POSSIBLE AT CONCORD AS WELL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BECKER
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...HAWLEY
AVIATION...HAWLEY/KIMBLE
MARINE...HAWLEY/KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281921
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF
ON TUESDAY WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO SET UP TONIGHT. AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO A CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY DID THIS MORNING... WITH MID 40S TO
MID 50S COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO BE A LITTLE
MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TRANSPORTING WARM AND MOIST AIR BACK INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE 80S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY... ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN DRY.
IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM IT LOOKS LIKE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S EACH DAY AS 500 RIDGE PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VALLEY FOG LIKELY AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD AND
POSSIBLE AT CONCORD AS WELL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BECKER
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...HAWLEY
AVIATION...HAWLEY/KIMBLE
MARINE...HAWLEY/KIMBLE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 281921
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF
ON TUESDAY WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO SET UP TONIGHT. AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO A CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY DID THIS MORNING... WITH MID 40S TO
MID 50S COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO BE A LITTLE
MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TRANSPORTING WARM AND MOIST AIR BACK INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE 80S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY... ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN DRY.
IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM IT LOOKS LIKE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S EACH DAY AS 500 RIDGE PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VALLEY FOG LIKELY AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD AND
POSSIBLE AT CONCORD AS WELL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BECKER
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...HAWLEY
AVIATION...HAWLEY/KIMBLE
MARINE...HAWLEY/KIMBLE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 281921
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF
ON TUESDAY WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO SET UP TONIGHT. AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO A CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY DID THIS MORNING... WITH MID 40S TO
MID 50S COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO BE A LITTLE
MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TRANSPORTING WARM AND MOIST AIR BACK INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE 80S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY... ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN DRY.
IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM IT LOOKS LIKE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S EACH DAY AS 500 RIDGE PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VALLEY FOG LIKELY AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD AND
POSSIBLE AT CONCORD AS WELL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BECKER
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...HAWLEY
AVIATION...HAWLEY/KIMBLE
MARINE...HAWLEY/KIMBLE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 281921
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF
ON TUESDAY WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO SET UP TONIGHT. AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO A CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY DID THIS MORNING... WITH MID 40S TO
MID 50S COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO BE A LITTLE
MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TRANSPORTING WARM AND MOIST AIR BACK INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE 80S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY... ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN DRY.
IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM IT LOOKS LIKE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S EACH DAY AS 500 RIDGE PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VALLEY FOG LIKELY AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD AND
POSSIBLE AT CONCORD AS WELL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BECKER
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...HAWLEY
AVIATION...HAWLEY/KIMBLE
MARINE...HAWLEY/KIMBLE



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281906
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
305 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS
WEEKEND BUT WITH A WARMING TREND.  VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER ALONG
WITH HUMIDITY WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...BUT A BACKDOOR
FRONT MAY BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR AUGUST STANDARDS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT.  LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT
BETWEEN 50 AND 55 IN THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING...TO THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S IN MOST OF THE URBAN CENTERS.  PATCHY GROUND WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THEN TODAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD TOP OUT
MAINLY IN THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 60...SO STILL QUITE
COMFORTABLE FOR THE LAST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/FORCING EXPECT OUR WEATHER TO REMAIN DRY.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD
NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS WHILE
URBAN CENTERS SHOULD SEE LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
EXPECT MORE LATE NIGHT PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THE SECOND-
HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MARITIME SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
FLOW...INCREASING THE RISK FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE AS IT IS ALL DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE RIDGE FINALLY SETS
UP...BUT DID LOWER THE NE MASS COAST A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY REALLY INCREASES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE 500MB HEIGHTS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 16-18C. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES COME TO AN END
BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS EVENING.  A FEW HOURS OF SEA BREEZES MAY
OCCUR ON SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THEM DEVELOPING IS NOT AS HIGH
AS THEY WERE TODAY AND THEY SHOULD NOT LAST AS LONG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY
HAVE A SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF 20 KT GUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS COULD SWITCH TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN - UPDATE COMING SOON
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281906
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
305 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS
WEEKEND BUT WITH A WARMING TREND.  VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER ALONG
WITH HUMIDITY WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...BUT A BACKDOOR
FRONT MAY BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR AUGUST STANDARDS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT.  LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT
BETWEEN 50 AND 55 IN THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING...TO THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S IN MOST OF THE URBAN CENTERS.  PATCHY GROUND WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THEN TODAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD TOP OUT
MAINLY IN THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 60...SO STILL QUITE
COMFORTABLE FOR THE LAST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/FORCING EXPECT OUR WEATHER TO REMAIN DRY.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD
NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS WHILE
URBAN CENTERS SHOULD SEE LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
EXPECT MORE LATE NIGHT PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THE SECOND-
HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MARITIME SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
FLOW...INCREASING THE RISK FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE AS IT IS ALL DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE RIDGE FINALLY SETS
UP...BUT DID LOWER THE NE MASS COAST A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY REALLY INCREASES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE 500MB HEIGHTS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 16-18C. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES COME TO AN END
BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS EVENING.  A FEW HOURS OF SEA BREEZES MAY
OCCUR ON SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THEM DEVELOPING IS NOT AS HIGH
AS THEY WERE TODAY AND THEY SHOULD NOT LAST AS LONG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY
HAVE A SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF 20 KT GUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS COULD SWITCH TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN - UPDATE COMING SOON
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
155 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING
TEMPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. VERY WARM
TO HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

155 PM UPDATE...

PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE AT MID AFTERNOON DESPITE PLENTY OF FAIR
WEATHER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
THOUGH...SO BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.  HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WILL YIELD ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
MINS IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S NW MA...BUT LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AS WELL AS AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY AND
OUTER CAPE/ACK/BID. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE BUT COLUMN REMAINS DRY WITH MOSUNNY
SKIES. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MAXES REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT SEABREEZES LIKELY TO
DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THE SECOND-
HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MARITIME SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
FLOW...INCREASING THE RISK FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE AS IT IS ALL DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE RIDGE FINALLY SETS
UP...BUT DID LOWER THE NE MASS COAST A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY REALLY INCREASES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE 500MB HEIGHTS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 16-18C. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES COME TO AN END
BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS EVENING.  A FEW HOURS OF SEA BREEZES MAY
OCCUR ON SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THEM DEVELOPING IS NOT AS HIGH
AS THEY WERE TODAY AND THEY SHOULD NOT LAST AS LONG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
NW FLOW TODAY BECOMING SW SAT...BUT BECOMING ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SAT AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF 20 KT GUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS COULD SWITCH TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
155 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING
TEMPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. VERY WARM
TO HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

155 PM UPDATE...

PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE AT MID AFTERNOON DESPITE PLENTY OF FAIR
WEATHER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
THOUGH...SO BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.  HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WILL YIELD ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
MINS IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S NW MA...BUT LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AS WELL AS AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY AND
OUTER CAPE/ACK/BID. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE BUT COLUMN REMAINS DRY WITH MOSUNNY
SKIES. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MAXES REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT SEABREEZES LIKELY TO
DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THE SECOND-
HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MARITIME SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
FLOW...INCREASING THE RISK FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE AS IT IS ALL DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE RIDGE FINALLY SETS
UP...BUT DID LOWER THE NE MASS COAST A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY REALLY INCREASES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE 500MB HEIGHTS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 16-18C. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES COME TO AN END
BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS EVENING.  A FEW HOURS OF SEA BREEZES MAY
OCCUR ON SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THEM DEVELOPING IS NOT AS HIGH
AS THEY WERE TODAY AND THEY SHOULD NOT LAST AS LONG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
NW FLOW TODAY BECOMING SW SAT...BUT BECOMING ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SAT AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF 20 KT GUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS COULD SWITCH TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
155 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING
TEMPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. VERY WARM
TO HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

155 PM UPDATE...

PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE AT MID AFTERNOON DESPITE PLENTY OF FAIR
WEATHER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
THOUGH...SO BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.  HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WILL YIELD ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
MINS IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S NW MA...BUT LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AS WELL AS AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY AND
OUTER CAPE/ACK/BID. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE BUT COLUMN REMAINS DRY WITH MOSUNNY
SKIES. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MAXES REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT SEABREEZES LIKELY TO
DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THE SECOND-
HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MARITIME SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
FLOW...INCREASING THE RISK FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE AS IT IS ALL DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE RIDGE FINALLY SETS
UP...BUT DID LOWER THE NE MASS COAST A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY REALLY INCREASES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE 500MB HEIGHTS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 16-18C. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES COME TO AN END
BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS EVENING.  A FEW HOURS OF SEA BREEZES MAY
OCCUR ON SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THEM DEVELOPING IS NOT AS HIGH
AS THEY WERE TODAY AND THEY SHOULD NOT LAST AS LONG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
NW FLOW TODAY BECOMING SW SAT...BUT BECOMING ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SAT AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF 20 KT GUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS COULD SWITCH TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
155 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING
TEMPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. VERY WARM
TO HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

155 PM UPDATE...

PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE AT MID AFTERNOON DESPITE PLENTY OF FAIR
WEATHER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
THOUGH...SO BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.  HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WILL YIELD ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
MINS IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S NW MA...BUT LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AS WELL AS AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY AND
OUTER CAPE/ACK/BID. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE BUT COLUMN REMAINS DRY WITH MOSUNNY
SKIES. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MAXES REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT SEABREEZES LIKELY TO
DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THE SECOND-
HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MARITIME SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
FLOW...INCREASING THE RISK FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE AS IT IS ALL DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE RIDGE FINALLY SETS
UP...BUT DID LOWER THE NE MASS COAST A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY REALLY INCREASES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE 500MB HEIGHTS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 16-18C. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES COME TO AN END
BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS EVENING.  A FEW HOURS OF SEA BREEZES MAY
OCCUR ON SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THEM DEVELOPING IS NOT AS HIGH
AS THEY WERE TODAY AND THEY SHOULD NOT LAST AS LONG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
NW FLOW TODAY BECOMING SW SAT...BUT BECOMING ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SAT AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF 20 KT GUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS COULD SWITCH TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
155 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING
TEMPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. VERY WARM
TO HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

155 PM UPDATE...

PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE AT MID AFTERNOON DESPITE PLENTY OF FAIR
WEATHER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
THOUGH...SO BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.  HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WILL YIELD ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
MINS IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S NW MA...BUT LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AS WELL AS AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY AND
OUTER CAPE/ACK/BID. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE BUT COLUMN REMAINS DRY WITH MOSUNNY
SKIES. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MAXES REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT SEABREEZES LIKELY TO
DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THE SECOND-
HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MARITIME SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
FLOW...INCREASING THE RISK FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE AS IT IS ALL DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE RIDGE FINALLY SETS
UP...BUT DID LOWER THE NE MASS COAST A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY REALLY INCREASES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE 500MB HEIGHTS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 16-18C. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES COME TO AN END
BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS EVENING.  A FEW HOURS OF SEA BREEZES MAY
OCCUR ON SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THEM DEVELOPING IS NOT AS HIGH
AS THEY WERE TODAY AND THEY SHOULD NOT LAST AS LONG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
NW FLOW TODAY BECOMING SW SAT...BUT BECOMING ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SAT AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF 20 KT GUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS COULD SWITCH TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
155 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING
TEMPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. VERY WARM
TO HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

155 PM UPDATE...

PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE AT MID AFTERNOON DESPITE PLENTY OF FAIR
WEATHER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
THOUGH...SO BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.  HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WILL YIELD ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
MINS IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S NW MA...BUT LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AS WELL AS AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY AND
OUTER CAPE/ACK/BID. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE BUT COLUMN REMAINS DRY WITH MOSUNNY
SKIES. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MAXES REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT SEABREEZES LIKELY TO
DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THE SECOND-
HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MARITIME SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
FLOW...INCREASING THE RISK FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE AS IT IS ALL DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE RIDGE FINALLY SETS
UP...BUT DID LOWER THE NE MASS COAST A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY REALLY INCREASES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE 500MB HEIGHTS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 16-18C. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES COME TO AN END
BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS EVENING.  A FEW HOURS OF SEA BREEZES MAY
OCCUR ON SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THEM DEVELOPING IS NOT AS HIGH
AS THEY WERE TODAY AND THEY SHOULD NOT LAST AS LONG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
NW FLOW TODAY BECOMING SW SAT...BUT BECOMING ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SAT AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF 20 KT GUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS COULD SWITCH TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
155 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING
TEMPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. VERY WARM
TO HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

155 PM UPDATE...

PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE AT MID AFTERNOON DESPITE PLENTY OF FAIR
WEATHER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
THOUGH...SO BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.  HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WILL YIELD ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
MINS IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S NW MA...BUT LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AS WELL AS AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY AND
OUTER CAPE/ACK/BID. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE BUT COLUMN REMAINS DRY WITH MOSUNNY
SKIES. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MAXES REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT SEABREEZES LIKELY TO
DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THE SECOND-
HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MARITIME SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
FLOW...INCREASING THE RISK FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE AS IT IS ALL DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE RIDGE FINALLY SETS
UP...BUT DID LOWER THE NE MASS COAST A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY REALLY INCREASES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE 500MB HEIGHTS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 16-18C. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES COME TO AN END
BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS EVENING.  A FEW HOURS OF SEA BREEZES MAY
OCCUR ON SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THEM DEVELOPING IS NOT AS HIGH
AS THEY WERE TODAY AND THEY SHOULD NOT LAST AS LONG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
NW FLOW TODAY BECOMING SW SAT...BUT BECOMING ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SAT AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF 20 KT GUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS COULD SWITCH TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
155 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING
TEMPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. VERY WARM
TO HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

155 PM UPDATE...

PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE AT MID AFTERNOON DESPITE PLENTY OF FAIR
WEATHER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
THOUGH...SO BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.  HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WILL YIELD ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
MINS IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S NW MA...BUT LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AS WELL AS AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY AND
OUTER CAPE/ACK/BID. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE BUT COLUMN REMAINS DRY WITH MOSUNNY
SKIES. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MAXES REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT SEABREEZES LIKELY TO
DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THE SECOND-
HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MARITIME SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
FLOW...INCREASING THE RISK FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE AS IT IS ALL DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE RIDGE FINALLY SETS
UP...BUT DID LOWER THE NE MASS COAST A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY REALLY INCREASES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE 500MB HEIGHTS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 16-18C. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES COME TO AN END
BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS EVENING.  A FEW HOURS OF SEA BREEZES MAY
OCCUR ON SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THEM DEVELOPING IS NOT AS HIGH
AS THEY WERE TODAY AND THEY SHOULD NOT LAST AS LONG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
NW FLOW TODAY BECOMING SW SAT...BUT BECOMING ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SAT AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF 20 KT GUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS COULD SWITCH TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281448
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1048 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
BRING SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK
COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE
SOUTH OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK WILL PROVIDE FOR INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY...WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
11AM UPDATE...
FEW MINOR CHANGES TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SKY
COVER. CLOUD COVER HANGING ON TOUGH NORTH OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
WHILE CUMULUS IS FORMING IN A FEW OTHER PATCHES ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

600 AM UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. A VERY NICE DAY TODAY!

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING
WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS. ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED. ANY VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL
AREAS WILL SEE A SEA BREEZE DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 50S ELSEWHERE. WITH THE COOL
TEMPERATURES...FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE COLDER VALLEYS. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HUMIDITIES TO START TO INCREASE A BIT LATE IN THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NH. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF NOAM BETWEEN SPRAWLING
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND SEMI-PERMANENT TROUGH NEAR
HUDSON BAY.  THIS TROUGH AXIS REMAINS CENTERED NEAR OUR
LATITUDE...THE RESULT BEING A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIRMASS THAN WAS OVERHEAD EARLIER IN THE WEEK.  LOOKING
AHEAD...PRIMARY CONTROLLING FEATURES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE STRENGTHENING/BROADENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF NOAM...WITH SUBSEQUENT BUILDING OF HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NOAM WEST OF ONGOING BLOCKING /-NAO/
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC.  PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST
THAT THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER WOULD HAVE TO COME
EARLIER IN THE PERIOD...WHEN THE BAND OF STRONGEST WESTERLIES ALOFT
IS NEARBY...AND BEFORE IT IS SHUNTED NORTH BY DEVELOPING RIDGING.
BEYOND THIS...THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORY SHOULD BE INCREASING WARMTH
AS ANOMALOUS HEAT BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM EARLY IN THE
WEEK...SPILLING EAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE:  LONGWAVE PATTERN AGREEMENT IS RATHER
STRONG THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...HAVING IMPROVED OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS.  PRIMARY DIFFERENCES ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE
EVOLUTION OF ERIKA AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  REGARDLESS OF THESE DIFFERENCES...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP ANY IMPACTS
FROM ERIKA /RAIN OR OTHERWISE/ WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION....WHICH
FITS WELL WITH DOMINANT EASTERN NOAM RIDGING...WHICH YIELDS LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF A PATH NORTHWARD FOR SUCH A SYSTEM.

THE DETAILS...

BEST SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL COMES RIGHT OFF THE BAT AS A
WEAK COOL FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
SUNDAY IN TANDEM WITH A POORLY DEFINED SHORTWAVE AT H5...BUT A
MODEST JET STREAK AT H2. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY IS
NOT IMPRESSIVE.  AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...TIMING OF
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GIVE THE BEST CLUE AS TO WHETHER IT CAN
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THIS REALLY DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A WIDESPREAD RAIN PRODUCER.  30-50 PERCENT OF SREF MEMBERS
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION...AND THE SREF IS TYPICALLY A BIT BULLISH...SO
SEE LITTLE REASON TO STRAY MUCH ABOVE 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR
NORTHERN AREAS...WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTH OF THIS LIKELY PRECLUDING
ANYTHING BUT SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS REACHING COASTAL AREAS.

MONDAY:  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO MAKE ONE LAST STAND ON
MONDAY AS IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTS TO CARVE ITSELF OUT OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE THAN THE GGEM/ECMWF...AND IS ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE
GEFS ENVELOPE.  THE ECMWF SOLUTION LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE
COMPROMISE IN THIS CASE...DRIVING A WEAK COOL FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THE UPPER WAVE IS MORE IMPRESSIVE
THAN THE DAY PREVIOUS...BUT MOISTURE IS AGAIN NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...AND THE DYNAMIC FORCING REALLY GIVES ONLY A GLANCING
BLOW...SO WILL STICK WITH 20-30 POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.

DEEP-LAYER RIDGING LOOKS TO BE IN FIRM CONTROL OF WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO
SPEAK OF.  WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION WILL ALLOW A MODEST RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY TO GO ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES /SEE
BELOW/.

THERE IS SOME WEAK AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE THAT AS WE REACH THE END
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY...THE SHARPENING RIDGE TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION MAY ALLOW FOR ENERGY TO DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND /RIDGE ROLLERS/ RATHER THAN REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA.  CLEARLY THERE ISN/T ANY SKILL TIMING THIS 7 DAYS OUT...BUT
PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST THAT POPS NEAR CLIMO LEVELS
/SLIGHT CHANCE/ ARE LIKELY WARRANTED TO END THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES: A WARMER THAN NORMAL FORECAST PERIOD IS IN
STORE...WITH T8S SPENDING MUCH OF THE WEEK IN THE MID TEENS.  THIS
SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
IMMEDIATE MAINE COAST.  TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO REACH THEIR WARMEST
LEVELS TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH T8S +1-2
SIGMA...LIKELY ALLOWING THE WARMEST SPOTS TO REACH 90 AT LEAST ONCE
DURING THE WEEK. WARMEST DAY IN THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY
WEDNESDAY...AS SOMEWHAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY
TEMPERS CONFIDENCE IN READINGS CONTINUING THIS WARM THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.  HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE OPPRESSIVE...BUT WILL BE
INCREASINGLY NOTICEABLE DURING THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING
FORESEEN AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH
SOME IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...NO ORGANIZED AREA OF RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY
SHRA ACTIVITY COMING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY /COVERAGE LOOKS NO GREATER
THAN WIDELY SCATTERED/. OUTSIDE OF THIS...LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT VALLEY FOG AT
HIE/LEB WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ALONG THE
EAST COAST...WITH BOTH WINDS/WAVES REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
SHORT TERM... JENSENIUS
LONG TERM... ARNOTT



000
FXUS61 KGYX 281448
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1048 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
BRING SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK
COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE
SOUTH OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK WILL PROVIDE FOR INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY...WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
11AM UPDATE...
FEW MINOR CHANGES TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SKY
COVER. CLOUD COVER HANGING ON TOUGH NORTH OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
WHILE CUMULUS IS FORMING IN A FEW OTHER PATCHES ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

600 AM UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. A VERY NICE DAY TODAY!

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING
WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS. ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED. ANY VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL
AREAS WILL SEE A SEA BREEZE DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 50S ELSEWHERE. WITH THE COOL
TEMPERATURES...FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE COLDER VALLEYS. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HUMIDITIES TO START TO INCREASE A BIT LATE IN THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NH. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF NOAM BETWEEN SPRAWLING
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND SEMI-PERMANENT TROUGH NEAR
HUDSON BAY.  THIS TROUGH AXIS REMAINS CENTERED NEAR OUR
LATITUDE...THE RESULT BEING A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIRMASS THAN WAS OVERHEAD EARLIER IN THE WEEK.  LOOKING
AHEAD...PRIMARY CONTROLLING FEATURES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE STRENGTHENING/BROADENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF NOAM...WITH SUBSEQUENT BUILDING OF HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NOAM WEST OF ONGOING BLOCKING /-NAO/
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC.  PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST
THAT THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER WOULD HAVE TO COME
EARLIER IN THE PERIOD...WHEN THE BAND OF STRONGEST WESTERLIES ALOFT
IS NEARBY...AND BEFORE IT IS SHUNTED NORTH BY DEVELOPING RIDGING.
BEYOND THIS...THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORY SHOULD BE INCREASING WARMTH
AS ANOMALOUS HEAT BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM EARLY IN THE
WEEK...SPILLING EAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE:  LONGWAVE PATTERN AGREEMENT IS RATHER
STRONG THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...HAVING IMPROVED OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS.  PRIMARY DIFFERENCES ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE
EVOLUTION OF ERIKA AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  REGARDLESS OF THESE DIFFERENCES...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP ANY IMPACTS
FROM ERIKA /RAIN OR OTHERWISE/ WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION....WHICH
FITS WELL WITH DOMINANT EASTERN NOAM RIDGING...WHICH YIELDS LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF A PATH NORTHWARD FOR SUCH A SYSTEM.

THE DETAILS...

BEST SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL COMES RIGHT OFF THE BAT AS A
WEAK COOL FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
SUNDAY IN TANDEM WITH A POORLY DEFINED SHORTWAVE AT H5...BUT A
MODEST JET STREAK AT H2. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY IS
NOT IMPRESSIVE.  AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...TIMING OF
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GIVE THE BEST CLUE AS TO WHETHER IT CAN
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THIS REALLY DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A WIDESPREAD RAIN PRODUCER.  30-50 PERCENT OF SREF MEMBERS
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION...AND THE SREF IS TYPICALLY A BIT BULLISH...SO
SEE LITTLE REASON TO STRAY MUCH ABOVE 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR
NORTHERN AREAS...WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTH OF THIS LIKELY PRECLUDING
ANYTHING BUT SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS REACHING COASTAL AREAS.

MONDAY:  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO MAKE ONE LAST STAND ON
MONDAY AS IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTS TO CARVE ITSELF OUT OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE THAN THE GGEM/ECMWF...AND IS ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE
GEFS ENVELOPE.  THE ECMWF SOLUTION LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE
COMPROMISE IN THIS CASE...DRIVING A WEAK COOL FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THE UPPER WAVE IS MORE IMPRESSIVE
THAN THE DAY PREVIOUS...BUT MOISTURE IS AGAIN NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...AND THE DYNAMIC FORCING REALLY GIVES ONLY A GLANCING
BLOW...SO WILL STICK WITH 20-30 POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.

DEEP-LAYER RIDGING LOOKS TO BE IN FIRM CONTROL OF WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO
SPEAK OF.  WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION WILL ALLOW A MODEST RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY TO GO ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES /SEE
BELOW/.

THERE IS SOME WEAK AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE THAT AS WE REACH THE END
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY...THE SHARPENING RIDGE TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION MAY ALLOW FOR ENERGY TO DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND /RIDGE ROLLERS/ RATHER THAN REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA.  CLEARLY THERE ISN/T ANY SKILL TIMING THIS 7 DAYS OUT...BUT
PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST THAT POPS NEAR CLIMO LEVELS
/SLIGHT CHANCE/ ARE LIKELY WARRANTED TO END THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES: A WARMER THAN NORMAL FORECAST PERIOD IS IN
STORE...WITH T8S SPENDING MUCH OF THE WEEK IN THE MID TEENS.  THIS
SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
IMMEDIATE MAINE COAST.  TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO REACH THEIR WARMEST
LEVELS TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH T8S +1-2
SIGMA...LIKELY ALLOWING THE WARMEST SPOTS TO REACH 90 AT LEAST ONCE
DURING THE WEEK. WARMEST DAY IN THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY
WEDNESDAY...AS SOMEWHAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY
TEMPERS CONFIDENCE IN READINGS CONTINUING THIS WARM THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.  HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE OPPRESSIVE...BUT WILL BE
INCREASINGLY NOTICEABLE DURING THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING
FORESEEN AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH
SOME IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...NO ORGANIZED AREA OF RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY
SHRA ACTIVITY COMING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY /COVERAGE LOOKS NO GREATER
THAN WIDELY SCATTERED/. OUTSIDE OF THIS...LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT VALLEY FOG AT
HIE/LEB WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ALONG THE
EAST COAST...WITH BOTH WINDS/WAVES REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
SHORT TERM... JENSENIUS
LONG TERM... ARNOTT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281448
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1048 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
BRING SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK
COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE
SOUTH OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK WILL PROVIDE FOR INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY...WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
11AM UPDATE...
FEW MINOR CHANGES TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SKY
COVER. CLOUD COVER HANGING ON TOUGH NORTH OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
WHILE CUMULUS IS FORMING IN A FEW OTHER PATCHES ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

600 AM UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. A VERY NICE DAY TODAY!

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING
WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS. ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED. ANY VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL
AREAS WILL SEE A SEA BREEZE DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 50S ELSEWHERE. WITH THE COOL
TEMPERATURES...FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE COLDER VALLEYS. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HUMIDITIES TO START TO INCREASE A BIT LATE IN THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NH. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF NOAM BETWEEN SPRAWLING
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND SEMI-PERMANENT TROUGH NEAR
HUDSON BAY.  THIS TROUGH AXIS REMAINS CENTERED NEAR OUR
LATITUDE...THE RESULT BEING A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIRMASS THAN WAS OVERHEAD EARLIER IN THE WEEK.  LOOKING
AHEAD...PRIMARY CONTROLLING FEATURES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE STRENGTHENING/BROADENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF NOAM...WITH SUBSEQUENT BUILDING OF HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NOAM WEST OF ONGOING BLOCKING /-NAO/
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC.  PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST
THAT THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER WOULD HAVE TO COME
EARLIER IN THE PERIOD...WHEN THE BAND OF STRONGEST WESTERLIES ALOFT
IS NEARBY...AND BEFORE IT IS SHUNTED NORTH BY DEVELOPING RIDGING.
BEYOND THIS...THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORY SHOULD BE INCREASING WARMTH
AS ANOMALOUS HEAT BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM EARLY IN THE
WEEK...SPILLING EAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE:  LONGWAVE PATTERN AGREEMENT IS RATHER
STRONG THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...HAVING IMPROVED OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS.  PRIMARY DIFFERENCES ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE
EVOLUTION OF ERIKA AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  REGARDLESS OF THESE DIFFERENCES...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP ANY IMPACTS
FROM ERIKA /RAIN OR OTHERWISE/ WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION....WHICH
FITS WELL WITH DOMINANT EASTERN NOAM RIDGING...WHICH YIELDS LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF A PATH NORTHWARD FOR SUCH A SYSTEM.

THE DETAILS...

BEST SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL COMES RIGHT OFF THE BAT AS A
WEAK COOL FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
SUNDAY IN TANDEM WITH A POORLY DEFINED SHORTWAVE AT H5...BUT A
MODEST JET STREAK AT H2. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY IS
NOT IMPRESSIVE.  AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...TIMING OF
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GIVE THE BEST CLUE AS TO WHETHER IT CAN
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THIS REALLY DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A WIDESPREAD RAIN PRODUCER.  30-50 PERCENT OF SREF MEMBERS
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION...AND THE SREF IS TYPICALLY A BIT BULLISH...SO
SEE LITTLE REASON TO STRAY MUCH ABOVE 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR
NORTHERN AREAS...WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTH OF THIS LIKELY PRECLUDING
ANYTHING BUT SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS REACHING COASTAL AREAS.

MONDAY:  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO MAKE ONE LAST STAND ON
MONDAY AS IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTS TO CARVE ITSELF OUT OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE THAN THE GGEM/ECMWF...AND IS ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE
GEFS ENVELOPE.  THE ECMWF SOLUTION LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE
COMPROMISE IN THIS CASE...DRIVING A WEAK COOL FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THE UPPER WAVE IS MORE IMPRESSIVE
THAN THE DAY PREVIOUS...BUT MOISTURE IS AGAIN NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...AND THE DYNAMIC FORCING REALLY GIVES ONLY A GLANCING
BLOW...SO WILL STICK WITH 20-30 POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.

DEEP-LAYER RIDGING LOOKS TO BE IN FIRM CONTROL OF WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO
SPEAK OF.  WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION WILL ALLOW A MODEST RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY TO GO ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES /SEE
BELOW/.

THERE IS SOME WEAK AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE THAT AS WE REACH THE END
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY...THE SHARPENING RIDGE TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION MAY ALLOW FOR ENERGY TO DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND /RIDGE ROLLERS/ RATHER THAN REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA.  CLEARLY THERE ISN/T ANY SKILL TIMING THIS 7 DAYS OUT...BUT
PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST THAT POPS NEAR CLIMO LEVELS
/SLIGHT CHANCE/ ARE LIKELY WARRANTED TO END THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES: A WARMER THAN NORMAL FORECAST PERIOD IS IN
STORE...WITH T8S SPENDING MUCH OF THE WEEK IN THE MID TEENS.  THIS
SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
IMMEDIATE MAINE COAST.  TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO REACH THEIR WARMEST
LEVELS TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH T8S +1-2
SIGMA...LIKELY ALLOWING THE WARMEST SPOTS TO REACH 90 AT LEAST ONCE
DURING THE WEEK. WARMEST DAY IN THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY
WEDNESDAY...AS SOMEWHAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY
TEMPERS CONFIDENCE IN READINGS CONTINUING THIS WARM THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.  HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE OPPRESSIVE...BUT WILL BE
INCREASINGLY NOTICEABLE DURING THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING
FORESEEN AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH
SOME IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...NO ORGANIZED AREA OF RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY
SHRA ACTIVITY COMING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY /COVERAGE LOOKS NO GREATER
THAN WIDELY SCATTERED/. OUTSIDE OF THIS...LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT VALLEY FOG AT
HIE/LEB WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ALONG THE
EAST COAST...WITH BOTH WINDS/WAVES REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
SHORT TERM... JENSENIUS
LONG TERM... ARNOTT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281448
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1048 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
BRING SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK
COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE
SOUTH OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK WILL PROVIDE FOR INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY...WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
11AM UPDATE...
FEW MINOR CHANGES TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SKY
COVER. CLOUD COVER HANGING ON TOUGH NORTH OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
WHILE CUMULUS IS FORMING IN A FEW OTHER PATCHES ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

600 AM UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. A VERY NICE DAY TODAY!

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING
WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS. ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED. ANY VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL
AREAS WILL SEE A SEA BREEZE DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 50S ELSEWHERE. WITH THE COOL
TEMPERATURES...FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE COLDER VALLEYS. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HUMIDITIES TO START TO INCREASE A BIT LATE IN THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NH. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF NOAM BETWEEN SPRAWLING
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND SEMI-PERMANENT TROUGH NEAR
HUDSON BAY.  THIS TROUGH AXIS REMAINS CENTERED NEAR OUR
LATITUDE...THE RESULT BEING A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIRMASS THAN WAS OVERHEAD EARLIER IN THE WEEK.  LOOKING
AHEAD...PRIMARY CONTROLLING FEATURES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE STRENGTHENING/BROADENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF NOAM...WITH SUBSEQUENT BUILDING OF HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NOAM WEST OF ONGOING BLOCKING /-NAO/
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC.  PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST
THAT THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER WOULD HAVE TO COME
EARLIER IN THE PERIOD...WHEN THE BAND OF STRONGEST WESTERLIES ALOFT
IS NEARBY...AND BEFORE IT IS SHUNTED NORTH BY DEVELOPING RIDGING.
BEYOND THIS...THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORY SHOULD BE INCREASING WARMTH
AS ANOMALOUS HEAT BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM EARLY IN THE
WEEK...SPILLING EAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE:  LONGWAVE PATTERN AGREEMENT IS RATHER
STRONG THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...HAVING IMPROVED OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS.  PRIMARY DIFFERENCES ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE
EVOLUTION OF ERIKA AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  REGARDLESS OF THESE DIFFERENCES...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP ANY IMPACTS
FROM ERIKA /RAIN OR OTHERWISE/ WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION....WHICH
FITS WELL WITH DOMINANT EASTERN NOAM RIDGING...WHICH YIELDS LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF A PATH NORTHWARD FOR SUCH A SYSTEM.

THE DETAILS...

BEST SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL COMES RIGHT OFF THE BAT AS A
WEAK COOL FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
SUNDAY IN TANDEM WITH A POORLY DEFINED SHORTWAVE AT H5...BUT A
MODEST JET STREAK AT H2. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY IS
NOT IMPRESSIVE.  AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...TIMING OF
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GIVE THE BEST CLUE AS TO WHETHER IT CAN
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THIS REALLY DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A WIDESPREAD RAIN PRODUCER.  30-50 PERCENT OF SREF MEMBERS
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION...AND THE SREF IS TYPICALLY A BIT BULLISH...SO
SEE LITTLE REASON TO STRAY MUCH ABOVE 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR
NORTHERN AREAS...WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTH OF THIS LIKELY PRECLUDING
ANYTHING BUT SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS REACHING COASTAL AREAS.

MONDAY:  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO MAKE ONE LAST STAND ON
MONDAY AS IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTS TO CARVE ITSELF OUT OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE THAN THE GGEM/ECMWF...AND IS ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE
GEFS ENVELOPE.  THE ECMWF SOLUTION LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE
COMPROMISE IN THIS CASE...DRIVING A WEAK COOL FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THE UPPER WAVE IS MORE IMPRESSIVE
THAN THE DAY PREVIOUS...BUT MOISTURE IS AGAIN NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...AND THE DYNAMIC FORCING REALLY GIVES ONLY A GLANCING
BLOW...SO WILL STICK WITH 20-30 POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.

DEEP-LAYER RIDGING LOOKS TO BE IN FIRM CONTROL OF WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO
SPEAK OF.  WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION WILL ALLOW A MODEST RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY TO GO ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES /SEE
BELOW/.

THERE IS SOME WEAK AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE THAT AS WE REACH THE END
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY...THE SHARPENING RIDGE TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION MAY ALLOW FOR ENERGY TO DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND /RIDGE ROLLERS/ RATHER THAN REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA.  CLEARLY THERE ISN/T ANY SKILL TIMING THIS 7 DAYS OUT...BUT
PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST THAT POPS NEAR CLIMO LEVELS
/SLIGHT CHANCE/ ARE LIKELY WARRANTED TO END THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES: A WARMER THAN NORMAL FORECAST PERIOD IS IN
STORE...WITH T8S SPENDING MUCH OF THE WEEK IN THE MID TEENS.  THIS
SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
IMMEDIATE MAINE COAST.  TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO REACH THEIR WARMEST
LEVELS TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH T8S +1-2
SIGMA...LIKELY ALLOWING THE WARMEST SPOTS TO REACH 90 AT LEAST ONCE
DURING THE WEEK. WARMEST DAY IN THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY
WEDNESDAY...AS SOMEWHAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY
TEMPERS CONFIDENCE IN READINGS CONTINUING THIS WARM THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.  HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE OPPRESSIVE...BUT WILL BE
INCREASINGLY NOTICEABLE DURING THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING
FORESEEN AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH
SOME IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...NO ORGANIZED AREA OF RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY
SHRA ACTIVITY COMING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY /COVERAGE LOOKS NO GREATER
THAN WIDELY SCATTERED/. OUTSIDE OF THIS...LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT VALLEY FOG AT
HIE/LEB WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ALONG THE
EAST COAST...WITH BOTH WINDS/WAVES REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
SHORT TERM... JENSENIUS
LONG TERM... ARNOTT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281305
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
905 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING
TEMPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. VERY WARM
TO HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

905 AM UPDATE...

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER WEATHER TODAY.  HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH QUITE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.  SHOULD
SEE SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL
EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  ATMOSPHERE WAY TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WILL YIELD ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
MINS IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S NW MA...BUT LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AS WELL AS AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY AND
OUTER CAPE/ACK/BID. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE BUT COLUMN REMAINS DRY WITH MOSUNNY
SKIES. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MAXES REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT SEABREEZES LIKELY TO
DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THE SECOND-
HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MARITIME SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
FLOW...INCREASING THE RISK FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE AS IT IS ALL DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE RIDGE FINALLY SETS
UP...BUT DID LOWER THE NE MASS COAST A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY REALLY INCREASES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE 500MB HEIGHTS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 16-18C. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...LOCALIZED IFR FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. SEABREEZES LIKELY TODAY
AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY 15 OR
16Z TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
NW FLOW TODAY BECOMING SW SAT...BUT BECOMING ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SAT AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF 20 KT GUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS COULD SWITCH TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281305
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
905 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING
TEMPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. VERY WARM
TO HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

905 AM UPDATE...

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER WEATHER TODAY.  HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH QUITE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.  SHOULD
SEE SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL
EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  ATMOSPHERE WAY TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WILL YIELD ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
MINS IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S NW MA...BUT LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AS WELL AS AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY AND
OUTER CAPE/ACK/BID. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE BUT COLUMN REMAINS DRY WITH MOSUNNY
SKIES. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MAXES REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT SEABREEZES LIKELY TO
DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THE SECOND-
HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MARITIME SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
FLOW...INCREASING THE RISK FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE AS IT IS ALL DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE RIDGE FINALLY SETS
UP...BUT DID LOWER THE NE MASS COAST A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY REALLY INCREASES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE 500MB HEIGHTS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 16-18C. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...LOCALIZED IFR FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. SEABREEZES LIKELY TODAY
AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY 15 OR
16Z TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
NW FLOW TODAY BECOMING SW SAT...BUT BECOMING ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SAT AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF 20 KT GUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS COULD SWITCH TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281305
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
905 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING
TEMPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. VERY WARM
TO HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

905 AM UPDATE...

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER WEATHER TODAY.  HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH QUITE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.  SHOULD
SEE SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL
EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  ATMOSPHERE WAY TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WILL YIELD ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
MINS IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S NW MA...BUT LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AS WELL AS AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY AND
OUTER CAPE/ACK/BID. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE BUT COLUMN REMAINS DRY WITH MOSUNNY
SKIES. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MAXES REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT SEABREEZES LIKELY TO
DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THE SECOND-
HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MARITIME SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
FLOW...INCREASING THE RISK FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE AS IT IS ALL DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE RIDGE FINALLY SETS
UP...BUT DID LOWER THE NE MASS COAST A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY REALLY INCREASES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE 500MB HEIGHTS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 16-18C. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...LOCALIZED IFR FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. SEABREEZES LIKELY TODAY
AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY 15 OR
16Z TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
NW FLOW TODAY BECOMING SW SAT...BUT BECOMING ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SAT AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF 20 KT GUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS COULD SWITCH TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281305
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
905 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING
TEMPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. VERY WARM
TO HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

905 AM UPDATE...

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER WEATHER TODAY.  HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH QUITE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.  SHOULD
SEE SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL
EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  ATMOSPHERE WAY TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WILL YIELD ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
MINS IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S NW MA...BUT LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AS WELL AS AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY AND
OUTER CAPE/ACK/BID. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE BUT COLUMN REMAINS DRY WITH MOSUNNY
SKIES. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MAXES REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT SEABREEZES LIKELY TO
DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THE SECOND-
HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MARITIME SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
FLOW...INCREASING THE RISK FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE AS IT IS ALL DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE RIDGE FINALLY SETS
UP...BUT DID LOWER THE NE MASS COAST A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY REALLY INCREASES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE 500MB HEIGHTS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 16-18C. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...LOCALIZED IFR FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. SEABREEZES LIKELY TODAY
AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY 15 OR
16Z TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
NW FLOW TODAY BECOMING SW SAT...BUT BECOMING ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SAT AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF 20 KT GUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS COULD SWITCH TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...DUNTEN



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