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000
FXUS61 KBOX 222015
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
415 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY GRAZE SE NEW
ENGLAND WITH A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND AND SUMMER LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING MOCLEAR
SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS. GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SO TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST
THRESHOLDS. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
THE INTERIOR...WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. ISOLD FROST POSSIBLE IN THE NW
MA AND SW NH BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING MOSUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT
BELOW 850 MB. 925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS 65-70
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS LINE WITH 2M TEMPS. SOME
OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS HINTING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MINS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT
IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  GIVEN THE POSITIONING
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SO COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND NO THE EASTERN MA COAST.  HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER
CT RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND A
SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK BAROCLINICITY WILL
ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.  NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND
ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT THIS COMES TO
FRUITION...CERTAINLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...WARMEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE HERE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 5 FT DURING TUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
TUE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 222015
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
415 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY GRAZE SE NEW
ENGLAND WITH A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND AND SUMMER LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING MOCLEAR
SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS. GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SO TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST
THRESHOLDS. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
THE INTERIOR...WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. ISOLD FROST POSSIBLE IN THE NW
MA AND SW NH BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING MOSUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT
BELOW 850 MB. 925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS 65-70
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS LINE WITH 2M TEMPS. SOME
OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS HINTING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MINS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT
IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  GIVEN THE POSITIONING
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SO COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND NO THE EASTERN MA COAST.  HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER
CT RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND A
SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK BAROCLINICITY WILL
ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.  NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND
ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT THIS COMES TO
FRUITION...CERTAINLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...WARMEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE HERE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 5 FT DURING TUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
TUE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 222015
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
415 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY GRAZE SE NEW
ENGLAND WITH A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND AND SUMMER LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING MOCLEAR
SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS. GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SO TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST
THRESHOLDS. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
THE INTERIOR...WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. ISOLD FROST POSSIBLE IN THE NW
MA AND SW NH BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING MOSUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT
BELOW 850 MB. 925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS 65-70
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS LINE WITH 2M TEMPS. SOME
OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS HINTING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MINS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT
IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  GIVEN THE POSITIONING
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SO COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND NO THE EASTERN MA COAST.  HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER
CT RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND A
SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK BAROCLINICITY WILL
ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.  NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND
ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT THIS COMES TO
FRUITION...CERTAINLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...WARMEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE HERE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 5 FT DURING TUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
TUE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 222015
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
415 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY GRAZE SE NEW
ENGLAND WITH A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND AND SUMMER LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING MOCLEAR
SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS. GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SO TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST
THRESHOLDS. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
THE INTERIOR...WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. ISOLD FROST POSSIBLE IN THE NW
MA AND SW NH BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING MOSUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT
BELOW 850 MB. 925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS 65-70
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS LINE WITH 2M TEMPS. SOME
OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS HINTING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MINS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT
IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  GIVEN THE POSITIONING
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SO COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND NO THE EASTERN MA COAST.  HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER
CT RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND A
SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK BAROCLINICITY WILL
ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.  NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND
ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT THIS COMES TO
FRUITION...CERTAINLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...WARMEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE HERE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 5 FT DURING TUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
TUE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 222015
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
415 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY GRAZE SE NEW
ENGLAND WITH A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND AND SUMMER LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING MOCLEAR
SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS. GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SO TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST
THRESHOLDS. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
THE INTERIOR...WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. ISOLD FROST POSSIBLE IN THE NW
MA AND SW NH BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING MOSUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT
BELOW 850 MB. 925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS 65-70
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS LINE WITH 2M TEMPS. SOME
OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS HINTING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MINS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT
IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  GIVEN THE POSITIONING
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SO COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND NO THE EASTERN MA COAST.  HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER
CT RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND A
SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK BAROCLINICITY WILL
ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.  NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND
ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT THIS COMES TO
FRUITION...CERTAINLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...WARMEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE HERE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 5 FT DURING TUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
TUE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KGYX 221831
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
231 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AND MODERATE NW FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND A POSSIBLE SHOWER
ACROSS THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT.
COOL AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND REMAIN OVER
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED AND COOL CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ABATING BY MIDNIGHT. A LIGHT WIND
SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN MANY PLACES DUE TO A PRETTY TIGHT
GRADIENT IN PLACE SO NOT TOO WORRIED ABOUT WIDESPREAD FROST
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT MOST
LOCATIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS HANG ONTO STRATOCU DUE TO MOST LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO SOME AREAS SUCH AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE CAN BRIEFLY DECOUPLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY
MORNING...AND THIS MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE AREA. UPSLOPE
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS SHOULD HANG ONTO STRATOCU AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...NOT AS GUSTY AS TODAY WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S. CLEAR CALM AND CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. SCATTERED FROST POSSIBLE COASTAL ZONES WHERE THE SEASON
HAS NOT ENDED YET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE WELL ESTABLISHED BY THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY...SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AND CLEAR SKIES
WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. THIS
MEANS THAT LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

MORE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD BY THE WEEKEND AND
WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IS
EXPECTED.  ALTHOUGH IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE EXTENDED FORECAST
LOOKS DRY AND PLEASANT...IF THERE ARE ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
THAT CLIMB THE RIDGE...THEY COULD DRAG A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION AS BOTH THE EURO AND GFS ARE HINTING AT FOR NEXT MONDAY.

EITHER WAY...THE WEATHER LOOKS GREAT FOR AT LEAST AN EXTENDED
STRETCH OF TIME.  HOWEVER...WE HAVE GOTTEN STUCK WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE MANY TIMES BEFORE WHILE BEING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...I`LL
HAVE TO PLAY THE ROLE OF A PESSIMIST FOR NOW DUE TO DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY AND WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF MODEL SUITES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ABATE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION
DURING THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT FOG MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD
LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY AT
LEB AND HIE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS AOA 5 FT EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL ABATE LATE
TONIGHT AND TUE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...KISTNER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 221831
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
231 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AND MODERATE NW FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND A POSSIBLE SHOWER
ACROSS THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT.
COOL AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND REMAIN OVER
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED AND COOL CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ABATING BY MIDNIGHT. A LIGHT WIND
SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN MANY PLACES DUE TO A PRETTY TIGHT
GRADIENT IN PLACE SO NOT TOO WORRIED ABOUT WIDESPREAD FROST
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT MOST
LOCATIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS HANG ONTO STRATOCU DUE TO MOST LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO SOME AREAS SUCH AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE CAN BRIEFLY DECOUPLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY
MORNING...AND THIS MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE AREA. UPSLOPE
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS SHOULD HANG ONTO STRATOCU AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...NOT AS GUSTY AS TODAY WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S. CLEAR CALM AND CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. SCATTERED FROST POSSIBLE COASTAL ZONES WHERE THE SEASON
HAS NOT ENDED YET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE WELL ESTABLISHED BY THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY...SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AND CLEAR SKIES
WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. THIS
MEANS THAT LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

MORE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD BY THE WEEKEND AND
WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IS
EXPECTED.  ALTHOUGH IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE EXTENDED FORECAST
LOOKS DRY AND PLEASANT...IF THERE ARE ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
THAT CLIMB THE RIDGE...THEY COULD DRAG A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION AS BOTH THE EURO AND GFS ARE HINTING AT FOR NEXT MONDAY.

EITHER WAY...THE WEATHER LOOKS GREAT FOR AT LEAST AN EXTENDED
STRETCH OF TIME.  HOWEVER...WE HAVE GOTTEN STUCK WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE MANY TIMES BEFORE WHILE BEING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...I`LL
HAVE TO PLAY THE ROLE OF A PESSIMIST FOR NOW DUE TO DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY AND WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF MODEL SUITES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ABATE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION
DURING THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT FOG MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD
LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY AT
LEB AND HIE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS AOA 5 FT EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL ABATE LATE
TONIGHT AND TUE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...KISTNER



000
FXUS61 KBOX 221745
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...
DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF SNE AS GUSTY
W/NW WINDS ADVECT MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SCT DIURNAL CU
HAS DEVELOPED BUT GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS NORTH AND WEST OF
SNE. FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WITH GUSTY WEST WIND USHERING IN MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS AS DEWPOINTS FALL THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S.
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE INTERIOR. STRONG
LOW LEVEL CAA...ESPECIALLY WEST WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S BUT
REACHING INTO THE 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE STRONGER CAA IS
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 18Z. GOOD MIXING WILL YIELD WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...WILL YIELD HIGH SURF
PARTICULARLY AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221745
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...
DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF SNE AS GUSTY
W/NW WINDS ADVECT MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SCT DIURNAL CU
HAS DEVELOPED BUT GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS NORTH AND WEST OF
SNE. FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WITH GUSTY WEST WIND USHERING IN MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS AS DEWPOINTS FALL THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S.
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE INTERIOR. STRONG
LOW LEVEL CAA...ESPECIALLY WEST WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S BUT
REACHING INTO THE 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE STRONGER CAA IS
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 18Z. GOOD MIXING WILL YIELD WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...WILL YIELD HIGH SURF
PARTICULARLY AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221745
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...
DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF SNE AS GUSTY
W/NW WINDS ADVECT MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SCT DIURNAL CU
HAS DEVELOPED BUT GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS NORTH AND WEST OF
SNE. FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WITH GUSTY WEST WIND USHERING IN MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS AS DEWPOINTS FALL THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S.
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE INTERIOR. STRONG
LOW LEVEL CAA...ESPECIALLY WEST WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S BUT
REACHING INTO THE 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE STRONGER CAA IS
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 18Z. GOOD MIXING WILL YIELD WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...WILL YIELD HIGH SURF
PARTICULARLY AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221745
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...
DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF SNE AS GUSTY
W/NW WINDS ADVECT MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SCT DIURNAL CU
HAS DEVELOPED BUT GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS NORTH AND WEST OF
SNE. FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WITH GUSTY WEST WIND USHERING IN MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS AS DEWPOINTS FALL THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S.
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE INTERIOR. STRONG
LOW LEVEL CAA...ESPECIALLY WEST WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S BUT
REACHING INTO THE 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE STRONGER CAA IS
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 18Z. GOOD MIXING WILL YIELD WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...WILL YIELD HIGH SURF
PARTICULARLY AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KGYX 221546
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1148 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS TODAY AS WELL AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1145 AM UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN THE
PROCESS OF SWEEPING OFFSHORE. GUSTY NWLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN ITS
WAKE.

9 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST A LITTLE BIT TO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING
ACROSS MAINE WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS. AFTER FROPA...WE EXPECT SUNNY
SKIES EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MOIST UPSLOPE WILL KEEP THINGS
CLOUDY.

550 AM...I DROPPED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AREA AS
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. OTHERWISE...1ST PERIOD GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON MESONET AND RADAR TRENDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 997 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND A
SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK STATE. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
AND SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. INSTABILITY WITH UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TODAY WITH ANY SHOWERS CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COOLING COLUMN SPELLS A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR WET
SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN STARTING LATE TODAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
NEAR 60 IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO AROUND 70F AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST TONIGHT WITH THE
LIGHT DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUING...SO CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. MUCH
COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IN
THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

ON TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONT AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR SPELLS
A FEW CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH A FEW
50S ACROSS MOUNTAIN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND FULLY UNDER CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY...SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AND
CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE
LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CT RIVER VALLEY.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A MODERATION TREND WITH TEMPERATURES HEADING
INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 70S DURING THE DAY
BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR THROUGHOUT. WEST WINDS
WILL GUST BTWN 20 AND 25 KT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. LCL IFR
IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN TUESDAY IN VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION
DURING THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT FOG MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLD LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA AS WE SEE
MARGINAL GUSTS TO NR 25 KT AS WELL AS SEAS NR 5 FT INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221351
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
951 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WITH GUSTY WEST WIND USHERING IN MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS AS DEWPOINTS FALL THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S.
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE INTERIOR. STRONG
LOW LEVEL CAA...ESPECIALLY WEST WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S BUT
REACHING INTO THE 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE STRONGER CAA IS
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 18Z. GOOD MIXING WILL YIELD WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...WILL YIELD HIGH SURF
PARTICULARLY AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT NOW OFFSHORE WITH WEST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS AND VFR
CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY ALONG WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. 06Z TAFS CAPTURE THESE DETAILS SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
WITH UPCOMING 12Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER AT ACK THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS MAINLY WNW TODAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221351
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
951 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WITH GUSTY WEST WIND USHERING IN MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS AS DEWPOINTS FALL THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S.
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE INTERIOR. STRONG
LOW LEVEL CAA...ESPECIALLY WEST WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S BUT
REACHING INTO THE 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE STRONGER CAA IS
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 18Z. GOOD MIXING WILL YIELD WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...WILL YIELD HIGH SURF
PARTICULARLY AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT NOW OFFSHORE WITH WEST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS AND VFR
CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY ALONG WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. 06Z TAFS CAPTURE THESE DETAILS SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
WITH UPCOMING 12Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER AT ACK THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS MAINLY WNW TODAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221351
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
951 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WITH GUSTY WEST WIND USHERING IN MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS AS DEWPOINTS FALL THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S.
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE INTERIOR. STRONG
LOW LEVEL CAA...ESPECIALLY WEST WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S BUT
REACHING INTO THE 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE STRONGER CAA IS
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 18Z. GOOD MIXING WILL YIELD WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...WILL YIELD HIGH SURF
PARTICULARLY AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT NOW OFFSHORE WITH WEST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS AND VFR
CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY ALONG WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. 06Z TAFS CAPTURE THESE DETAILS SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
WITH UPCOMING 12Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER AT ACK THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS MAINLY WNW TODAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221351
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
951 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WITH GUSTY WEST WIND USHERING IN MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS AS DEWPOINTS FALL THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S.
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE INTERIOR. STRONG
LOW LEVEL CAA...ESPECIALLY WEST WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S BUT
REACHING INTO THE 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE STRONGER CAA IS
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 18Z. GOOD MIXING WILL YIELD WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...WILL YIELD HIGH SURF
PARTICULARLY AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT NOW OFFSHORE WITH WEST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS AND VFR
CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY ALONG WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. 06Z TAFS CAPTURE THESE DETAILS SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
WITH UPCOMING 12Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER AT ACK THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS MAINLY WNW TODAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KGYX 221258
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
850 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS TODAY AS WELL AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST A LITTLE BIT TO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING
ACROSS MAINE WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS. AFTER FROPA...WE EXPECT SUNNY
SKIES EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MOIST UPSLOPE WILL KEEP THINGS
CLOUDY.

550 AM...I DROPPED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AREA AS
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. OTHERWISE...1ST PERIOD GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON MESONET AND RADAR TRENDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 997 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND A
SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK STATE. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
AND SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. INSTABILITY WITH UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TODAY WITH ANY SHOWERS CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COOLING COLUMN SPELLS A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR WET
SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN STARTING LATE TODAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
NEAR 60 IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO AROUND 70F AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST TONIGHT WITH THE
LIGHT DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUING...SO CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. MUCH
COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IN
THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

ON TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONT AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR SPELLS
A FEW CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH A FEW
50S ACROSS MOUNTAIN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND FULLY UNDER CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY...SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AND
CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE
LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CT RIVER VALLEY.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A MODERATION TREND WITH TEMPERATURES HEADING
INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 70S DURING THE DAY
BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR THROUGHOUT. WEST WINDS
WILL GUST BTWN 20 AND 25 KT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. LCL IFR
IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN TUESDAY IN VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION
DURING THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT FOG MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLD LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA AS WE SEE
MARGINAL GUSTS TO NR 25 KT AS WELL AS SEAS NR 5 FT INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 221258
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
850 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS TODAY AS WELL AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST A LITTLE BIT TO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING
ACROSS MAINE WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS. AFTER FROPA...WE EXPECT SUNNY
SKIES EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MOIST UPSLOPE WILL KEEP THINGS
CLOUDY.

550 AM...I DROPPED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AREA AS
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. OTHERWISE...1ST PERIOD GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON MESONET AND RADAR TRENDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 997 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND A
SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK STATE. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
AND SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. INSTABILITY WITH UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TODAY WITH ANY SHOWERS CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COOLING COLUMN SPELLS A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR WET
SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN STARTING LATE TODAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
NEAR 60 IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO AROUND 70F AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST TONIGHT WITH THE
LIGHT DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUING...SO CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. MUCH
COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IN
THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

ON TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONT AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR SPELLS
A FEW CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH A FEW
50S ACROSS MOUNTAIN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND FULLY UNDER CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY...SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AND
CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE
LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CT RIVER VALLEY.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A MODERATION TREND WITH TEMPERATURES HEADING
INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 70S DURING THE DAY
BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR THROUGHOUT. WEST WINDS
WILL GUST BTWN 20 AND 25 KT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. LCL IFR
IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN TUESDAY IN VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION
DURING THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT FOG MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLD LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA AS WE SEE
MARGINAL GUSTS TO NR 25 KT AS WELL AS SEAS NR 5 FT INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221046
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
646 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...

QUITE A CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS A COLD FRONT EXITS THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AT SUNRISE. LOW CLOUDS OVER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET HAVE NOW
MOVED OFFSHORE AND IS REPLACED BY WEST WINDS ADVECTING IN MUCH
DRIER AIR WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS
THE BLYR WARMS AND DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES
THESE DETAILS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

=====================================================================

USING A BLEND OF SFC OBS AND MSAS...IT APPEARS THAT SFC COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE LOW CT VALLEY IN SRN CT
THROUGH ABOUT AFN. IT HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AS IT BEGINS TO PARALLEL
THE UPPER LVL FLOW GIVEN THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS NOW E OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL CONTINUE IT/S
PROGRESSION TO THE E...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK TO FULLY
MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS ESPECIALLY. IN SPITE OF
THIS...MUCH OF THE EARLY MORNING FOG HAS NOW DISSIPATED THANKS TO
WESTERLY ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. THIS W FLOW ALSO
CONTINUES TO LEAD TO DOWNSLOPING AND DIMINISHING OF WHAT IS LEFT
OF THE -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WHICH IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE
IT MUCH FURTHER E OF THE WORCESTER HILLS AND MONADNOCKS.

AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE...AND UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO
NRN NEW ENGLAND...A ROBUST SFC PRES GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...AS SKIES CLEAR AND MIXING COMMENCES...EXPECT A BREEZY
DAY TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH NOT UNCOMMON OUT OF THE
WNW. COLD ADVECTION CU IS ALSO LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A SPRINKLE IS ABLE TO BE
SQUEEZED OUT AS WELL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO REFLECT THIS IN POPS. REGARDING
HIGHS...H85 TEMPS ARE DROPPING RAPIDLY...AND MAY NOT BE MIXED TO
FULLY. SO SUSPECT HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOOK GOOD
GIVEN AT PEAK MIXING...H85 TEMPS AVERAGE ABOUT +8C. DWPTS DROP
INTO THE 40S...SO AT THE VERY LEAST...MUCH LESS HUMID TODAY.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...MAY YIELD HIGH SURF PARTICULARLY
AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT NOW OFFSHORE WITH WEST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS AND VFR
CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY ALONG WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. 06Z TAFS CAPTURE THESE DETAILS SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
WITH UPCOMING 12Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER AT ACK THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS MAINLY WNW TODAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 221046
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
646 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...

QUITE A CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS A COLD FRONT EXITS THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AT SUNRISE. LOW CLOUDS OVER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET HAVE NOW
MOVED OFFSHORE AND IS REPLACED BY WEST WINDS ADVECTING IN MUCH
DRIER AIR WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS
THE BLYR WARMS AND DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES
THESE DETAILS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

=====================================================================

USING A BLEND OF SFC OBS AND MSAS...IT APPEARS THAT SFC COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE LOW CT VALLEY IN SRN CT
THROUGH ABOUT AFN. IT HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AS IT BEGINS TO PARALLEL
THE UPPER LVL FLOW GIVEN THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS NOW E OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL CONTINUE IT/S
PROGRESSION TO THE E...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK TO FULLY
MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS ESPECIALLY. IN SPITE OF
THIS...MUCH OF THE EARLY MORNING FOG HAS NOW DISSIPATED THANKS TO
WESTERLY ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. THIS W FLOW ALSO
CONTINUES TO LEAD TO DOWNSLOPING AND DIMINISHING OF WHAT IS LEFT
OF THE -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WHICH IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE
IT MUCH FURTHER E OF THE WORCESTER HILLS AND MONADNOCKS.

AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE...AND UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO
NRN NEW ENGLAND...A ROBUST SFC PRES GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...AS SKIES CLEAR AND MIXING COMMENCES...EXPECT A BREEZY
DAY TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH NOT UNCOMMON OUT OF THE
WNW. COLD ADVECTION CU IS ALSO LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A SPRINKLE IS ABLE TO BE
SQUEEZED OUT AS WELL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO REFLECT THIS IN POPS. REGARDING
HIGHS...H85 TEMPS ARE DROPPING RAPIDLY...AND MAY NOT BE MIXED TO
FULLY. SO SUSPECT HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOOK GOOD
GIVEN AT PEAK MIXING...H85 TEMPS AVERAGE ABOUT +8C. DWPTS DROP
INTO THE 40S...SO AT THE VERY LEAST...MUCH LESS HUMID TODAY.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...MAY YIELD HIGH SURF PARTICULARLY
AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT NOW OFFSHORE WITH WEST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS AND VFR
CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY ALONG WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. 06Z TAFS CAPTURE THESE DETAILS SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
WITH UPCOMING 12Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER AT ACK THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS MAINLY WNW TODAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220958
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
558 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS TODAY AS WELL AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

550 AM...I DROPPED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AREA AS
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. OTHERWISE...1ST PERIOD GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON MESONET AND RADAR TRENDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 997 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND A
SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK STATE. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
AND SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. INSTABILITY WITH UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TODAY WITH ANY SHOWERS CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COOLING COLUMN SPELLS A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR WET
SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN STARTING LATE TODAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
NEAR 60 IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO AROUND 70F AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST TONIGHT WITH THE
LIGHT DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUING...SO CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. MUCH
COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IN
THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

ON TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONT AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR SPELLS
A FEW CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH A FEW
50S ACROSS MOUNTAIN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND FULLY UNDER CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY...SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AND
CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE
LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CT RIVER VALLEY.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A MODERATION TREND WITH TEMPERATURES HEADING
INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 70S DURING THE DAY
BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING IN
STRATUS...FOG...AND SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR THIS MORNING
THROUGHOUT. WEST WINDS WILL GUST BTWN 20 AND 25 KT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. LCL IFR IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN TUESDAY IN
VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION
DURING THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT FOG MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLD LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA AS WE SEE
MARGINAL GUSTS TO NR 25 KT AS WELL AS SEAS NR 5 FT INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220958
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
558 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS TODAY AS WELL AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

550 AM...I DROPPED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AREA AS
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. OTHERWISE...1ST PERIOD GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON MESONET AND RADAR TRENDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 997 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND A
SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK STATE. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
AND SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. INSTABILITY WITH UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TODAY WITH ANY SHOWERS CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COOLING COLUMN SPELLS A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR WET
SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN STARTING LATE TODAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
NEAR 60 IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO AROUND 70F AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST TONIGHT WITH THE
LIGHT DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUING...SO CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. MUCH
COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IN
THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

ON TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONT AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR SPELLS
A FEW CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH A FEW
50S ACROSS MOUNTAIN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND FULLY UNDER CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY...SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AND
CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE
LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CT RIVER VALLEY.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A MODERATION TREND WITH TEMPERATURES HEADING
INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 70S DURING THE DAY
BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING IN
STRATUS...FOG...AND SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR THIS MORNING
THROUGHOUT. WEST WINDS WILL GUST BTWN 20 AND 25 KT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. LCL IFR IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN TUESDAY IN
VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION
DURING THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT FOG MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLD LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA AS WE SEE
MARGINAL GUSTS TO NR 25 KT AS WELL AS SEAS NR 5 FT INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220958
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
558 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS TODAY AS WELL AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

550 AM...I DROPPED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AREA AS
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. OTHERWISE...1ST PERIOD GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON MESONET AND RADAR TRENDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 997 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND A
SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK STATE. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
AND SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. INSTABILITY WITH UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TODAY WITH ANY SHOWERS CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COOLING COLUMN SPELLS A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR WET
SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN STARTING LATE TODAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
NEAR 60 IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO AROUND 70F AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST TONIGHT WITH THE
LIGHT DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUING...SO CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. MUCH
COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IN
THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

ON TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONT AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR SPELLS
A FEW CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH A FEW
50S ACROSS MOUNTAIN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND FULLY UNDER CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY...SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AND
CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE
LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CT RIVER VALLEY.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A MODERATION TREND WITH TEMPERATURES HEADING
INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 70S DURING THE DAY
BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING IN
STRATUS...FOG...AND SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR THIS MORNING
THROUGHOUT. WEST WINDS WILL GUST BTWN 20 AND 25 KT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. LCL IFR IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN TUESDAY IN
VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION
DURING THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT FOG MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLD LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA AS WE SEE
MARGINAL GUSTS TO NR 25 KT AS WELL AS SEAS NR 5 FT INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220958
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
558 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS TODAY AS WELL AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

550 AM...I DROPPED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AREA AS
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. OTHERWISE...1ST PERIOD GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON MESONET AND RADAR TRENDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 997 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND A
SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK STATE. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
AND SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. INSTABILITY WITH UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TODAY WITH ANY SHOWERS CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COOLING COLUMN SPELLS A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR WET
SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN STARTING LATE TODAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
NEAR 60 IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO AROUND 70F AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST TONIGHT WITH THE
LIGHT DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUING...SO CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. MUCH
COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IN
THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

ON TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONT AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR SPELLS
A FEW CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH A FEW
50S ACROSS MOUNTAIN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND FULLY UNDER CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY...SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AND
CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE
LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CT RIVER VALLEY.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A MODERATION TREND WITH TEMPERATURES HEADING
INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 70S DURING THE DAY
BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING IN
STRATUS...FOG...AND SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR THIS MORNING
THROUGHOUT. WEST WINDS WILL GUST BTWN 20 AND 25 KT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. LCL IFR IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN TUESDAY IN
VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION
DURING THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT FOG MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLD LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA AS WE SEE
MARGINAL GUSTS TO NR 25 KT AS WELL AS SEAS NR 5 FT INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KBOX 220752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
352 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE TODAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE AREA
YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD.
TEMPERATURES THEN BEGIN TO WARM BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
USING A BLEND OF SFC OBS AND MSAS...IT APPEARS THAT SFC COLD FRONT
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE LOW CT VALLEY IN SRN CT THROUGH
ABOUT AFN. IT HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AS IT BEGINS TO PARALLEL THE
UPPER LVL FLOW GIVEN THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS NOW E OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL CONTINUE IT/S PROGRESSION TO
THE E...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK TO FULLY MOVE OFFSHORE OF
THE CAPE/ISLANDS ESPECIALLY. IN SPITE OF THIS...MUCH OF THE EARLY
MORNING FOG HAS NOW DISSIPATED THANKS TO WESTERLY ISALLOBARIC
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. THIS W FLOW ALSO CONTINUES TO LEAD TO
DOWNSLOPING AND DIMINISHING OF WHAT IS LEFT OF THE -SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WHICH IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT MUCH
FURTHER E OF THE WORCESTER HILLS AND MONADNOCKS.

AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE...AND UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO
NRN NEW ENGLAND...A ROBUST SFC PRES GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...AS SKIES CLEAR AND MIXING COMMENCES...EXPECT A BREEZY
DAY TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH NOT UNCOMMON OUT OF THE
WNW. COLD ADVECTION CU IS ALSO LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A SPRINKLE IS ABLE TO BE
SQUEEZED OUT AS WELL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO REFLECT THIS IN POPS. REGARDING
HIGHS...H85 TEMPS ARE DROPPING RAPIDLY...AND MAY NOT BE MIXED TO
FULLY. SO SUSPECT HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOOK GOOD
GIVEN AT PEAK MIXING...H85 TEMPS AVERAGE ABOUT +8C. DWPTS DROP
INTO THE 40S...SO AT THE VERY LEAST...MUCH LESS HUMID TODAY.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...MAY YIELD HIGH SURF PARTICULARLY
AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

...SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

...DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

...9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
WITH A MIX OF ALL CATEGORIES...EXPECT THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH
12Z WILL BE TOWARD VFR FROM W-E. TIMING IN TAFS MAY BE OFF BY AN
HOUR OR SO...BUT ONCE WINDS PICK UP AND SHIFT MORE W-NW VFR SHOULD
DOMINATE THEREAFTER.

TODAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER AT ACK THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS MAINLY WNW TODAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 220752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
352 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE TODAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE AREA
YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD.
TEMPERATURES THEN BEGIN TO WARM BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
USING A BLEND OF SFC OBS AND MSAS...IT APPEARS THAT SFC COLD FRONT
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE LOW CT VALLEY IN SRN CT THROUGH
ABOUT AFN. IT HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AS IT BEGINS TO PARALLEL THE
UPPER LVL FLOW GIVEN THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS NOW E OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL CONTINUE IT/S PROGRESSION TO
THE E...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK TO FULLY MOVE OFFSHORE OF
THE CAPE/ISLANDS ESPECIALLY. IN SPITE OF THIS...MUCH OF THE EARLY
MORNING FOG HAS NOW DISSIPATED THANKS TO WESTERLY ISALLOBARIC
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. THIS W FLOW ALSO CONTINUES TO LEAD TO
DOWNSLOPING AND DIMINISHING OF WHAT IS LEFT OF THE -SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WHICH IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT MUCH
FURTHER E OF THE WORCESTER HILLS AND MONADNOCKS.

AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE...AND UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO
NRN NEW ENGLAND...A ROBUST SFC PRES GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...AS SKIES CLEAR AND MIXING COMMENCES...EXPECT A BREEZY
DAY TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH NOT UNCOMMON OUT OF THE
WNW. COLD ADVECTION CU IS ALSO LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A SPRINKLE IS ABLE TO BE
SQUEEZED OUT AS WELL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO REFLECT THIS IN POPS. REGARDING
HIGHS...H85 TEMPS ARE DROPPING RAPIDLY...AND MAY NOT BE MIXED TO
FULLY. SO SUSPECT HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOOK GOOD
GIVEN AT PEAK MIXING...H85 TEMPS AVERAGE ABOUT +8C. DWPTS DROP
INTO THE 40S...SO AT THE VERY LEAST...MUCH LESS HUMID TODAY.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...MAY YIELD HIGH SURF PARTICULARLY
AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

...SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

...DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

...9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
WITH A MIX OF ALL CATEGORIES...EXPECT THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH
12Z WILL BE TOWARD VFR FROM W-E. TIMING IN TAFS MAY BE OFF BY AN
HOUR OR SO...BUT ONCE WINDS PICK UP AND SHIFT MORE W-NW VFR SHOULD
DOMINATE THEREAFTER.

TODAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER AT ACK THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS MAINLY WNW TODAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220653
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
253 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS TODAY AS WELL AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A 997 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND A
SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK STATE. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
AND SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. INSTABILITY WITH UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TODAY WITH ANY SHOWERS CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COOLING COLUMN SPELLS A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR WET
SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN STARTING LATE TODAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
NEAR 60 IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO AROUND 70F AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST TONIGHT WITH THE
LIGHT DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUING...SO CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. MUCH
COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IN
THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

ON TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONT AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR SPELLS
A FEW CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH A FEW
50S ACROSS MOUNTAIN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND FULLY UNDER CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY...SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AND
CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE
LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CT RIVER VALLEY.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A MODERATION TREND WITH TEMPERATURES HEADING
INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 70S DURING THE DAY
BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING IN
STRATUS...FOG...AND SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR THIS MORNING
THROUGHOUT. WEST WINDS WILL GUST BTWN 20 AND 25 KT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. LCL IFR IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN TUESDAY IN
VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION
DURING THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT FOG MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLD LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA AS WE SEE
MARGINAL GUSTS TO NR 25 KT AS WELL AS SEAS NR 5 FT INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ018>028.
NH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ010-013-
     014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CANNON



000
FXUS61 KGYX 220653
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
253 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS TODAY AS WELL AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A 997 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND A
SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK STATE. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
AND SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. INSTABILITY WITH UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TODAY WITH ANY SHOWERS CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COOLING COLUMN SPELLS A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR WET
SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN STARTING LATE TODAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
NEAR 60 IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO AROUND 70F AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST TONIGHT WITH THE
LIGHT DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUING...SO CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. MUCH
COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IN
THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

ON TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONT AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR SPELLS
A FEW CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH A FEW
50S ACROSS MOUNTAIN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND FULLY UNDER CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY...SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AND
CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE
LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CT RIVER VALLEY.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A MODERATION TREND WITH TEMPERATURES HEADING
INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 70S DURING THE DAY
BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING IN
STRATUS...FOG...AND SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR THIS MORNING
THROUGHOUT. WEST WINDS WILL GUST BTWN 20 AND 25 KT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. LCL IFR IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN TUESDAY IN
VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION
DURING THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT FOG MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLD LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA AS WE SEE
MARGINAL GUSTS TO NR 25 KT AS WELL AS SEAS NR 5 FT INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ018>028.
NH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ010-013-
     014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CANNON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 220545
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE W AS
ISALLOBARIC COUPLET SUPPORTS RAPID PRES RISES TO THE W AND FALLING
TO THE E AS LOW PRES SLIDES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. THIS SHIFT HAS
LEAD TO A DRYING TREND AND REDUCTION IN THE OVERALL FOG COVERAGE.
WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SPS/S AND ADVISORIES FOR THE TIME BEING
THOUGH AS THE ACTUAL FRONT IS NOW ONLY JUST E OF THE CT VALLEY
AND WILL TAKE 3-6 MORE HOURS TO CLEAR. OTHERWISE...FORECAST MAINLY
ON TRACK AS REMNANT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRY AS THEY REACH THE
DOWNSLOPING IN THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
WITH A MIX OF ALL CATEGORIES...EXPECT THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH
12Z WILL BE TOWARD VFR FROM W-E. TIMING IN TAFS MAY BE OFF BY AN
HOUR OR SO...BUT ONCE WINDS PICK UP AND SHIFT MORE W-NW VFR SHOULD
DOMINATE THEREAFTER.

TODAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER AT ACK THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS MAINLY WNW TODAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BOSTON HARBOR.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ020>024.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ006-007-014.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/GAF
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/GAF
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...DOODY/GAF
MARINE...FRANK/GAF



000
FXUS61 KGYX 220254 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1054 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
A COUPLE AREAS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
TONIGHT...ONE OFF THE COAST AND ANOTHER JUST TO OUR WEST. IN
BETWEEN SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ARE FALLING.
THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST IS OCCLUDED AND THE TRIPLE POINT SHOULD
STAY TO OUR NORTH. MOST SHOWERS WILL STAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. THE COASTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR MORE
LIKELY AREAS OF DRIZZLE TO THE MIDCOAST OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING
ANY SIGNIFICANT GLACIATION/THUNDER WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY.

HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE COAST AND THE IMMEDIATE
INTERIOR OF NH AND MAINE AS VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO A QUARTER
MILE OR LOWER AND WILL LIKELY STAY THERE THROUGH 9 AM.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS IN
PLACE SO AREAS OF FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. LATER
TONIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD AND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. TOWARD MORNING THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST AND DOWNSLOPING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO END AND SOME CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS. IN THE MTNS THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER. WITH THE CLOUD
COVER AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD AND USED A
BLEND OF THE MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH A DOWNSLOPING WEST
FLOW WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER TROF LINGERS ALLOWING CLOUDS AND MAYBE A
SHOWER JUST IN THE MTNS. DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP TEMPS OVER THE SRN
AREAS TO APPROACH 70 DEGREES.

MON NIGHT HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST WITH THE LIGHT
DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUING SO THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS
BUT SRN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MON NIGHT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY...A
WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A
FEW SHOWERS.

THEREAFTER...BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN THE REST OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND
SHOULD BE DRY/SUNNY WITH WARM DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. WENT HIGHER
THAN THE CONSENSUS FOR MAXES LATE WEEK/WEEKEND AND COLDER THAN
CONSENSUS AT NIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE MEX. MAY HAVE TO BUMP HIGHS
FOR FRI/SAT GOING FORWARD IF CURRENT WX PATTERN WITH WARM NWLY
FLOW SETS UP...COULD SEE A DAY IN THE 80S AROUND THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
STRATUS/FOG/SHOWERS. CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MORNING AND CONTINUE
VFR THROUGH MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR IS EXPECTED TUE THROUGH FRIDAY MOST LOCATIONS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA BUT SEAS WILL
BUILD LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH MON NIGHT SO A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE WATERS TUE THROUGH
SAT WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
NH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ010-013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 6
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$


UPDATE...HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220254 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1054 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
A COUPLE AREAS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
TONIGHT...ONE OFF THE COAST AND ANOTHER JUST TO OUR WEST. IN
BETWEEN SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ARE FALLING.
THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST IS OCCLUDED AND THE TRIPLE POINT SHOULD
STAY TO OUR NORTH. MOST SHOWERS WILL STAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. THE COASTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR MORE
LIKELY AREAS OF DRIZZLE TO THE MIDCOAST OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING
ANY SIGNIFICANT GLACIATION/THUNDER WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY.

HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE COAST AND THE IMMEDIATE
INTERIOR OF NH AND MAINE AS VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO A QUARTER
MILE OR LOWER AND WILL LIKELY STAY THERE THROUGH 9 AM.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS IN
PLACE SO AREAS OF FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. LATER
TONIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD AND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. TOWARD MORNING THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST AND DOWNSLOPING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO END AND SOME CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS. IN THE MTNS THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER. WITH THE CLOUD
COVER AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD AND USED A
BLEND OF THE MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH A DOWNSLOPING WEST
FLOW WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER TROF LINGERS ALLOWING CLOUDS AND MAYBE A
SHOWER JUST IN THE MTNS. DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP TEMPS OVER THE SRN
AREAS TO APPROACH 70 DEGREES.

MON NIGHT HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST WITH THE LIGHT
DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUING SO THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS
BUT SRN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MON NIGHT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY...A
WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A
FEW SHOWERS.

THEREAFTER...BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN THE REST OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND
SHOULD BE DRY/SUNNY WITH WARM DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. WENT HIGHER
THAN THE CONSENSUS FOR MAXES LATE WEEK/WEEKEND AND COLDER THAN
CONSENSUS AT NIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE MEX. MAY HAVE TO BUMP HIGHS
FOR FRI/SAT GOING FORWARD IF CURRENT WX PATTERN WITH WARM NWLY
FLOW SETS UP...COULD SEE A DAY IN THE 80S AROUND THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
STRATUS/FOG/SHOWERS. CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MORNING AND CONTINUE
VFR THROUGH MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR IS EXPECTED TUE THROUGH FRIDAY MOST LOCATIONS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA BUT SEAS WILL
BUILD LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH MON NIGHT SO A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE WATERS TUE THROUGH
SAT WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
NH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ010-013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 6
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$


UPDATE...HANES



000
FXUS61 KBOX 220200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN HAS GENERALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
E MA THIS EVENING AS LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFFSHORE BEGINS TO SHIFT
NE. A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN FROM THIS BUT JUST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...HAVE BEEN WATCHING A
DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN NY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT...STILL A BIT OF -SHRA ACTIVITY LEFT...BUT NOT MUCH
CONVECTION. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY WRN MA AND SW NH WILL BE HAVE THIS
RAIN IN THE CARDS BUT GENERALLY AFTER 03Z. AFTER THAT...THE RAPID
ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR...LONG SINCE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND
SHIFT OF BEST DYNAMICS INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOST
OF THESE TO DISSIPATE SUCH THAT VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY...ASIDE FROM
A BRIEF GUST OF WIND AND WIND SHIFT...IS SEEN ELSEWHERE WITH THIS
FROPA.

OTHERWISE...A POCKET OF VERY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE N
SHORE OF MA INTO COASTAL MAINE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER LOCATIONS REPORTING UNDER HALF A MILE ARE
ORH AND TAN...BUT FEEL THESE ARE LIKELY MORE COLOCATED WITH THE
AIRPORT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME
LOW IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2 MILE AT TIMES IN LOCALLY DENSE
FOG. MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS...WITH
MANY AREAS BECOMING IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. BEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR IS FROM ABOUT A JAFFREY-WORCESTER-WILLIMANTIC
LINE EASTWARD. STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
REACH INTO RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME AND
PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHEAST MA.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
JUST A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY
AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BOSTON HARBOR.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ020>024.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ006-007-014.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/GAF
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/GAF
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...FRANK/GAF
MARINE...FRANK/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 220200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN HAS GENERALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
E MA THIS EVENING AS LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFFSHORE BEGINS TO SHIFT
NE. A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN FROM THIS BUT JUST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...HAVE BEEN WATCHING A
DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN NY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT...STILL A BIT OF -SHRA ACTIVITY LEFT...BUT NOT MUCH
CONVECTION. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY WRN MA AND SW NH WILL BE HAVE THIS
RAIN IN THE CARDS BUT GENERALLY AFTER 03Z. AFTER THAT...THE RAPID
ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR...LONG SINCE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND
SHIFT OF BEST DYNAMICS INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOST
OF THESE TO DISSIPATE SUCH THAT VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY...ASIDE FROM
A BRIEF GUST OF WIND AND WIND SHIFT...IS SEEN ELSEWHERE WITH THIS
FROPA.

OTHERWISE...A POCKET OF VERY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE N
SHORE OF MA INTO COASTAL MAINE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER LOCATIONS REPORTING UNDER HALF A MILE ARE
ORH AND TAN...BUT FEEL THESE ARE LIKELY MORE COLOCATED WITH THE
AIRPORT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME
LOW IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2 MILE AT TIMES IN LOCALLY DENSE
FOG. MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS...WITH
MANY AREAS BECOMING IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. BEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR IS FROM ABOUT A JAFFREY-WORCESTER-WILLIMANTIC
LINE EASTWARD. STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
REACH INTO RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME AND
PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHEAST MA.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
JUST A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY
AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BOSTON HARBOR.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ020>024.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ006-007-014.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/GAF
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/GAF
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...FRANK/GAF
MARINE...FRANK/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 220200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN HAS GENERALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
E MA THIS EVENING AS LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFFSHORE BEGINS TO SHIFT
NE. A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN FROM THIS BUT JUST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...HAVE BEEN WATCHING A
DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN NY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT...STILL A BIT OF -SHRA ACTIVITY LEFT...BUT NOT MUCH
CONVECTION. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY WRN MA AND SW NH WILL BE HAVE THIS
RAIN IN THE CARDS BUT GENERALLY AFTER 03Z. AFTER THAT...THE RAPID
ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR...LONG SINCE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND
SHIFT OF BEST DYNAMICS INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOST
OF THESE TO DISSIPATE SUCH THAT VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY...ASIDE FROM
A BRIEF GUST OF WIND AND WIND SHIFT...IS SEEN ELSEWHERE WITH THIS
FROPA.

OTHERWISE...A POCKET OF VERY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE N
SHORE OF MA INTO COASTAL MAINE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER LOCATIONS REPORTING UNDER HALF A MILE ARE
ORH AND TAN...BUT FEEL THESE ARE LIKELY MORE COLOCATED WITH THE
AIRPORT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME
LOW IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2 MILE AT TIMES IN LOCALLY DENSE
FOG. MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS...WITH
MANY AREAS BECOMING IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. BEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR IS FROM ABOUT A JAFFREY-WORCESTER-WILLIMANTIC
LINE EASTWARD. STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
REACH INTO RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME AND
PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHEAST MA.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
JUST A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY
AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BOSTON HARBOR.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ020>024.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ006-007-014.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/GAF
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/GAF
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...FRANK/GAF
MARINE...FRANK/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 220200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN HAS GENERALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
E MA THIS EVENING AS LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFFSHORE BEGINS TO SHIFT
NE. A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN FROM THIS BUT JUST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...HAVE BEEN WATCHING A
DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN NY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT...STILL A BIT OF -SHRA ACTIVITY LEFT...BUT NOT MUCH
CONVECTION. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY WRN MA AND SW NH WILL BE HAVE THIS
RAIN IN THE CARDS BUT GENERALLY AFTER 03Z. AFTER THAT...THE RAPID
ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR...LONG SINCE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND
SHIFT OF BEST DYNAMICS INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOST
OF THESE TO DISSIPATE SUCH THAT VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY...ASIDE FROM
A BRIEF GUST OF WIND AND WIND SHIFT...IS SEEN ELSEWHERE WITH THIS
FROPA.

OTHERWISE...A POCKET OF VERY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE N
SHORE OF MA INTO COASTAL MAINE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER LOCATIONS REPORTING UNDER HALF A MILE ARE
ORH AND TAN...BUT FEEL THESE ARE LIKELY MORE COLOCATED WITH THE
AIRPORT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME
LOW IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2 MILE AT TIMES IN LOCALLY DENSE
FOG. MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS...WITH
MANY AREAS BECOMING IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. BEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR IS FROM ABOUT A JAFFREY-WORCESTER-WILLIMANTIC
LINE EASTWARD. STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
REACH INTO RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME AND
PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHEAST MA.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
JUST A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY
AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BOSTON HARBOR.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ020>024.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ006-007-014.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/GAF
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/GAF
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...FRANK/GAF
MARINE...FRANK/GAF



000
FXUS61 KGYX 212323 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
723 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED.

&&

.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE INCLUDING TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND PLACEMENT OF POPS PER MESOSCALE MODELS. ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS PERSISTING OVER NH AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS OFFSHORE. STRATUS REMAINS ENTRENCHED AND FOG IS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD. ADDED DENSE FOG AND VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 SM AT TIMES IN
THE FORECAST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE SO AREAS OF FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. TOWARD
MORNING THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND DOWNSLOPING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO END AND SOME
CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. IN THE MTNS THE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE
TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD AND USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH A DOWNSLOPING WEST
FLOW WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER TROF LINGERS ALLOWING CLOUDS AND MAYBE A
SHOWER JUST IN THE MTNS. DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP TEMPS OVER THE SRN
AREAS TO APPROACH 70 DEGREES.

MON NIGHT HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST WITH THE LIGHT
DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUING SO THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS
BUT SRN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MON NIGHT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY...A
WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A
FEW SHOWERS.

THEREAFTER...BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN THE REST OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND
SHOULD BE DRY/SUNNY WITH WARM DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. WENT HIGHER
THAN THE CONSENSUS FOR MAXES LATE WEEK/WEEKEND AND COLDER THAN
CONSENSUS AT NIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE MEX. MAY HAVE TO BUMP HIGHS
FOR FRI/SAT GOING FORWARD IF CURRENT WX PATTERN WITH WARM NWLY
FLOW SETS UP...COULD SEE A DAY IN THE 80S AROUND THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
STRATUS/FOG/SHOWERS. CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MORNING AND CONTINUE
VFR THROUGH MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR IS EXPECTED TUE THROUGH FRIDAY MOST LOCATIONS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA BUT SEAS WILL
BUILD LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH MON NIGHT SO A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE WATERS TUE THROUGH
SAT WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 6
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 212323 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
723 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED.

&&

.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE INCLUDING TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND PLACEMENT OF POPS PER MESOSCALE MODELS. ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS PERSISTING OVER NH AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS OFFSHORE. STRATUS REMAINS ENTRENCHED AND FOG IS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD. ADDED DENSE FOG AND VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 SM AT TIMES IN
THE FORECAST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE SO AREAS OF FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. TOWARD
MORNING THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND DOWNSLOPING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO END AND SOME
CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. IN THE MTNS THE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE
TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD AND USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH A DOWNSLOPING WEST
FLOW WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER TROF LINGERS ALLOWING CLOUDS AND MAYBE A
SHOWER JUST IN THE MTNS. DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP TEMPS OVER THE SRN
AREAS TO APPROACH 70 DEGREES.

MON NIGHT HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST WITH THE LIGHT
DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUING SO THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS
BUT SRN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MON NIGHT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY...A
WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A
FEW SHOWERS.

THEREAFTER...BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN THE REST OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND
SHOULD BE DRY/SUNNY WITH WARM DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. WENT HIGHER
THAN THE CONSENSUS FOR MAXES LATE WEEK/WEEKEND AND COLDER THAN
CONSENSUS AT NIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE MEX. MAY HAVE TO BUMP HIGHS
FOR FRI/SAT GOING FORWARD IF CURRENT WX PATTERN WITH WARM NWLY
FLOW SETS UP...COULD SEE A DAY IN THE 80S AROUND THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
STRATUS/FOG/SHOWERS. CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MORNING AND CONTINUE
VFR THROUGH MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR IS EXPECTED TUE THROUGH FRIDAY MOST LOCATIONS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA BUT SEAS WILL
BUILD LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH MON NIGHT SO A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE WATERS TUE THROUGH
SAT WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 6
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 212323 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
723 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED.

&&

.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE INCLUDING TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND PLACEMENT OF POPS PER MESOSCALE MODELS. ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS PERSISTING OVER NH AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS OFFSHORE. STRATUS REMAINS ENTRENCHED AND FOG IS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD. ADDED DENSE FOG AND VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 SM AT TIMES IN
THE FORECAST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE SO AREAS OF FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. TOWARD
MORNING THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND DOWNSLOPING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO END AND SOME
CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. IN THE MTNS THE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE
TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD AND USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH A DOWNSLOPING WEST
FLOW WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER TROF LINGERS ALLOWING CLOUDS AND MAYBE A
SHOWER JUST IN THE MTNS. DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP TEMPS OVER THE SRN
AREAS TO APPROACH 70 DEGREES.

MON NIGHT HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST WITH THE LIGHT
DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUING SO THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS
BUT SRN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MON NIGHT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY...A
WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A
FEW SHOWERS.

THEREAFTER...BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN THE REST OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND
SHOULD BE DRY/SUNNY WITH WARM DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. WENT HIGHER
THAN THE CONSENSUS FOR MAXES LATE WEEK/WEEKEND AND COLDER THAN
CONSENSUS AT NIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE MEX. MAY HAVE TO BUMP HIGHS
FOR FRI/SAT GOING FORWARD IF CURRENT WX PATTERN WITH WARM NWLY
FLOW SETS UP...COULD SEE A DAY IN THE 80S AROUND THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
STRATUS/FOG/SHOWERS. CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MORNING AND CONTINUE
VFR THROUGH MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR IS EXPECTED TUE THROUGH FRIDAY MOST LOCATIONS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA BUT SEAS WILL
BUILD LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH MON NIGHT SO A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE WATERS TUE THROUGH
SAT WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 6
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 212323 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
723 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED.

&&

.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE INCLUDING TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND PLACEMENT OF POPS PER MESOSCALE MODELS. ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS PERSISTING OVER NH AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS OFFSHORE. STRATUS REMAINS ENTRENCHED AND FOG IS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD. ADDED DENSE FOG AND VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 SM AT TIMES IN
THE FORECAST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE SO AREAS OF FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. TOWARD
MORNING THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND DOWNSLOPING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO END AND SOME
CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. IN THE MTNS THE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE
TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD AND USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH A DOWNSLOPING WEST
FLOW WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER TROF LINGERS ALLOWING CLOUDS AND MAYBE A
SHOWER JUST IN THE MTNS. DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP TEMPS OVER THE SRN
AREAS TO APPROACH 70 DEGREES.

MON NIGHT HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST WITH THE LIGHT
DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUING SO THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS
BUT SRN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MON NIGHT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY...A
WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A
FEW SHOWERS.

THEREAFTER...BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN THE REST OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND
SHOULD BE DRY/SUNNY WITH WARM DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. WENT HIGHER
THAN THE CONSENSUS FOR MAXES LATE WEEK/WEEKEND AND COLDER THAN
CONSENSUS AT NIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE MEX. MAY HAVE TO BUMP HIGHS
FOR FRI/SAT GOING FORWARD IF CURRENT WX PATTERN WITH WARM NWLY
FLOW SETS UP...COULD SEE A DAY IN THE 80S AROUND THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
STRATUS/FOG/SHOWERS. CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MORNING AND CONTINUE
VFR THROUGH MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR IS EXPECTED TUE THROUGH FRIDAY MOST LOCATIONS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA BUT SEAS WILL
BUILD LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH MON NIGHT SO A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE WATERS TUE THROUGH
SAT WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 6
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



000
FXUS61 KBOX 212307
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
707 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW
 ENGLAND COAST***

7 PM UPDATE...SCATTERED DIURNAL-INDUCED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE INTERIOR WITH SUNDOWN. A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS WERE
STILL IN BOSTON/S SOUTH SHORE HEADING NORTH. AREA OF STEADY RAIN
CONTINUES OVER THE ISLANDS. AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAD
FORMED...AT MARSHFIELD AND FALMOUTH IN SOUTHEAST MA. WILL NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF IT BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. IF
SO...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE VERY MUGGY
AIRMASS CONTINUES. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES OR POPS AT THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME
LOW IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2 MILE AT TIMES IN LOCALLY DENSE
FOG. MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS...WITH
MANY AREAS BECOMING IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. BEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR IS FROM ABOUT A JAFFREY-WORCESTER-WILLIMANTIC
LINE EASTWARD. STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
REACH INTO RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME AND
PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHEAST MA.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
JUST A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY
AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BOSTON HARBOR.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/FIELD
NEAR TERM...FIELD/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...FIELD
AVIATION...FIELD/FRANK
MARINE...FIELD/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 212307
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
707 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW
 ENGLAND COAST***

7 PM UPDATE...SCATTERED DIURNAL-INDUCED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE INTERIOR WITH SUNDOWN. A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS WERE
STILL IN BOSTON/S SOUTH SHORE HEADING NORTH. AREA OF STEADY RAIN
CONTINUES OVER THE ISLANDS. AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAD
FORMED...AT MARSHFIELD AND FALMOUTH IN SOUTHEAST MA. WILL NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF IT BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. IF
SO...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE VERY MUGGY
AIRMASS CONTINUES. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES OR POPS AT THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME
LOW IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2 MILE AT TIMES IN LOCALLY DENSE
FOG. MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS...WITH
MANY AREAS BECOMING IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. BEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR IS FROM ABOUT A JAFFREY-WORCESTER-WILLIMANTIC
LINE EASTWARD. STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
REACH INTO RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME AND
PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHEAST MA.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
JUST A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY
AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BOSTON HARBOR.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/FIELD
NEAR TERM...FIELD/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...FIELD
AVIATION...FIELD/FRANK
MARINE...FIELD/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 212006
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
   SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST***

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY MVFR
CIGS WERE DOMINATING AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT SOME IFR CONDITIONS WERE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.  MAY SEE CONDITIONS LOWER
TO IFR IN SOME LOCALES NEAR THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.  REST OF THE REGION SHOULD MAINLY BE MVFR.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT TOO
PESSIMISTIC ON CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GIVEN WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE
OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION LATER THIS EVENING...ALBEIT LIGHT. PATCHES
OF IFR CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IF ANY PATCHY
FOG CAN DEVELOP. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT AT LEAST THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY REACH INTO RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHEAST MA.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
JUST A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY
AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/FIELD
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...FIELD
AVIATION...FRANK/FIELD
MARINE...FRANK/FIELD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 212006
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
   SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST***

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY MVFR
CIGS WERE DOMINATING AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT SOME IFR CONDITIONS WERE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.  MAY SEE CONDITIONS LOWER
TO IFR IN SOME LOCALES NEAR THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.  REST OF THE REGION SHOULD MAINLY BE MVFR.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT TOO
PESSIMISTIC ON CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GIVEN WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE
OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION LATER THIS EVENING...ALBEIT LIGHT. PATCHES
OF IFR CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IF ANY PATCHY
FOG CAN DEVELOP. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT AT LEAST THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY REACH INTO RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHEAST MA.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
JUST A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY
AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/FIELD
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...FIELD
AVIATION...FRANK/FIELD
MARINE...FRANK/FIELD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 212006
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
   SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST***

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY MVFR
CIGS WERE DOMINATING AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT SOME IFR CONDITIONS WERE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.  MAY SEE CONDITIONS LOWER
TO IFR IN SOME LOCALES NEAR THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.  REST OF THE REGION SHOULD MAINLY BE MVFR.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT TOO
PESSIMISTIC ON CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GIVEN WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE
OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION LATER THIS EVENING...ALBEIT LIGHT. PATCHES
OF IFR CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IF ANY PATCHY
FOG CAN DEVELOP. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT AT LEAST THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY REACH INTO RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHEAST MA.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
JUST A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY
AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/FIELD
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...FIELD
AVIATION...FRANK/FIELD
MARINE...FRANK/FIELD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 212006
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
   SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST***

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY MVFR
CIGS WERE DOMINATING AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT SOME IFR CONDITIONS WERE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.  MAY SEE CONDITIONS LOWER
TO IFR IN SOME LOCALES NEAR THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.  REST OF THE REGION SHOULD MAINLY BE MVFR.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT TOO
PESSIMISTIC ON CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GIVEN WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE
OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION LATER THIS EVENING...ALBEIT LIGHT. PATCHES
OF IFR CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IF ANY PATCHY
FOG CAN DEVELOP. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT AT LEAST THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY REACH INTO RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHEAST MA.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
JUST A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY
AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/FIELD
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...FIELD
AVIATION...FRANK/FIELD
MARINE...FRANK/FIELD




000
FXUS61 KGYX 211929
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
329 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE SO AREAS OF FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. TOWARD
MORNING THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND DOWSLOPING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO END AND SOME
CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. IN TH MTNS THE CLOUDS
WILL LINGER. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE TEMPS
WILL BE QUITE MILD AND USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH A DOWNSLOPING WEST
FLOW WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER TROF LINGERS ALLOWING CLOUDS AND MAYBE A
SHOWER JUST IN THE MTNS. DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP TEMPS OVER THE SRN
AREAS TO APPROACH 70 DEGREES.

MON NIGHT HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST WITH THE LIGHT
DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUING SO THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS
BUT SRN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MON NIGHT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY...A
WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A
FEW SHOWERS.

THEREAFTER...BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN THE REST OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND
SHOULD BE DRY/SUNNY WITH WARM DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. WENT HIGHER
THAN THE CONSENSUS FOR MAXES LATE WEEK/WEEKEND AND COLDER THAN
CONSENSUS AT NIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE MEX. MAY HAVE TO BUMP HIGHS
FOR FRI/SAT GOING FORWARD IF CURRENT WX PATTERN WITH WARM NWLY
FLOW SETS UP...COULD SEE A DAY IN THE 80S AROUND THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
STRATUS/FOG/SHOWERS. CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MORNING AND CONTINUE
VFR THROUGH MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR IS EXPECTED TUE THROUGH FRIDAY MOST LOCATIONS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRIT BUT SEAS WILL BUILD
LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH MON NIGHT SO A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
HAS BEEN ISSUED.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE WATERS TUE THROUGH
SAT WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 6
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 211929
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
329 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE SO AREAS OF FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. TOWARD
MORNING THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND DOWSLOPING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO END AND SOME
CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. IN TH MTNS THE CLOUDS
WILL LINGER. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE TEMPS
WILL BE QUITE MILD AND USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH A DOWNSLOPING WEST
FLOW WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER TROF LINGERS ALLOWING CLOUDS AND MAYBE A
SHOWER JUST IN THE MTNS. DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP TEMPS OVER THE SRN
AREAS TO APPROACH 70 DEGREES.

MON NIGHT HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST WITH THE LIGHT
DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUING SO THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS
BUT SRN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MON NIGHT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY...A
WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A
FEW SHOWERS.

THEREAFTER...BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN THE REST OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND
SHOULD BE DRY/SUNNY WITH WARM DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. WENT HIGHER
THAN THE CONSENSUS FOR MAXES LATE WEEK/WEEKEND AND COLDER THAN
CONSENSUS AT NIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE MEX. MAY HAVE TO BUMP HIGHS
FOR FRI/SAT GOING FORWARD IF CURRENT WX PATTERN WITH WARM NWLY
FLOW SETS UP...COULD SEE A DAY IN THE 80S AROUND THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
STRATUS/FOG/SHOWERS. CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MORNING AND CONTINUE
VFR THROUGH MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR IS EXPECTED TUE THROUGH FRIDAY MOST LOCATIONS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRIT BUT SEAS WILL BUILD
LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH MON NIGHT SO A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
HAS BEEN ISSUED.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE WATERS TUE THROUGH
SAT WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 6
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211806
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCALES...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

205 PM UPDATE...

MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
SCATTERED SMALL SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE MOST OF THE TIME WAS DRY AT A GIVEN LOCATION...BRIEF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION AT TIMES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND ITS SYNOPTIC
RAIN WAS WORKING ITS WAY NORTHEAST.  MOST OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
NOW AGREE THAT A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO PART OF THE EVENING
HOURS.  NOT SURE HOW MUCH IF ANY RAIN WILL MAKE IT BACK ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/SOUTHERN RI...BUT IF IT DOES SHOULD BE RATHER
SHORT LIVED.

AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S EVEN NEAR 80 IN A FEW
LOCALES.  DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S WILL RESULT IN MUGGY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY MVFR
CIGS WERE DOMINATING AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT SOME IFR CONDITIONS WERE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.  MAY SEE CONDITIONS LOWER
TO IFR IN SOME LOCALES NEAR THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.  REST OF THE REGION SHOULD MAINLY BE MVFR.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT TOO
PESSIMISTIC ON CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GIVEN WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION LATER THIS EVENING...ALBEIT LIGHT.  PATCHES OF
IFR CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IF ANY PATCHY FOG
CAN DEVELOP.  WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  AGAIN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO
MODERATE SO LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.  JUST A
LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY AS
A DECK OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 211806
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCALES...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

205 PM UPDATE...

MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
SCATTERED SMALL SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE MOST OF THE TIME WAS DRY AT A GIVEN LOCATION...BRIEF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION AT TIMES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND ITS SYNOPTIC
RAIN WAS WORKING ITS WAY NORTHEAST.  MOST OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
NOW AGREE THAT A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO PART OF THE EVENING
HOURS.  NOT SURE HOW MUCH IF ANY RAIN WILL MAKE IT BACK ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/SOUTHERN RI...BUT IF IT DOES SHOULD BE RATHER
SHORT LIVED.

AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S EVEN NEAR 80 IN A FEW
LOCALES.  DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S WILL RESULT IN MUGGY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY MVFR
CIGS WERE DOMINATING AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT SOME IFR CONDITIONS WERE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.  MAY SEE CONDITIONS LOWER
TO IFR IN SOME LOCALES NEAR THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.  REST OF THE REGION SHOULD MAINLY BE MVFR.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT TOO
PESSIMISTIC ON CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GIVEN WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION LATER THIS EVENING...ALBEIT LIGHT.  PATCHES OF
IFR CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IF ANY PATCHY FOG
CAN DEVELOP.  WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  AGAIN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO
MODERATE SO LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.  JUST A
LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY AS
A DECK OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211538
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1137 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCALES...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1135 AM UPDATE...

A CLUSTER OF SMALL SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WERE BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE CT RIVER.  THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY RIGHT NOW
WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN CT.  THESE SHOWERS WERE BEING DRIVE BY
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON TO BE A WASHOUT...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE REGION AT TIMES.

THE OTHER AREA WE ARE WATCHING IS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MOVES NORTHEAST.
WHILE LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THIS
IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A BIT
FURTHER NORTHWEST FOR A SHORT TIME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 80.  DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S ARE BRINGING A MUGGY FEEL TO
THE AIR AND A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER AFTER YESTERDAY/S
VERY CHILLY START.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211538
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1137 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCALES...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1135 AM UPDATE...

A CLUSTER OF SMALL SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WERE BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE CT RIVER.  THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY RIGHT NOW
WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN CT.  THESE SHOWERS WERE BEING DRIVE BY
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON TO BE A WASHOUT...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE REGION AT TIMES.

THE OTHER AREA WE ARE WATCHING IS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MOVES NORTHEAST.
WHILE LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THIS
IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A BIT
FURTHER NORTHWEST FOR A SHORT TIME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 80.  DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S ARE BRINGING A MUGGY FEEL TO
THE AIR AND A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER AFTER YESTERDAY/S
VERY CHILLY START.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211538
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1137 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCALES...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1135 AM UPDATE...

A CLUSTER OF SMALL SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WERE BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE CT RIVER.  THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY RIGHT NOW
WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN CT.  THESE SHOWERS WERE BEING DRIVE BY
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON TO BE A WASHOUT...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE REGION AT TIMES.

THE OTHER AREA WE ARE WATCHING IS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MOVES NORTHEAST.
WHILE LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THIS
IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A BIT
FURTHER NORTHWEST FOR A SHORT TIME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 80.  DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S ARE BRINGING A MUGGY FEEL TO
THE AIR AND A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER AFTER YESTERDAY/S
VERY CHILLY START.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211538
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1137 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCALES...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1135 AM UPDATE...

A CLUSTER OF SMALL SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WERE BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE CT RIVER.  THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY RIGHT NOW
WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN CT.  THESE SHOWERS WERE BEING DRIVE BY
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON TO BE A WASHOUT...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE REGION AT TIMES.

THE OTHER AREA WE ARE WATCHING IS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MOVES NORTHEAST.
WHILE LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THIS
IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A BIT
FURTHER NORTHWEST FOR A SHORT TIME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 80.  DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S ARE BRINGING A MUGGY FEEL TO
THE AIR AND A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER AFTER YESTERDAY/S
VERY CHILLY START.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211455
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1055 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCALES...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1055 AM UPDATE...

A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WERE STILL OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN
NH/NORTH CENTRAL MA AT LATE MORNING.  THE REST OF THE REGION WAS DRY
WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS...BUT THERE STILL WERE PEEKS OF SUN
AT TIMES ACROSS EASTERN MA/RHODE ISLAND.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY IN A GIVEN
LOCATION.  HOWEVER...ENOUGH HEATING/INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER A FEW
POP UP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  AGAIN...NOT
EXPECTING ANY THUNDER THOUGH AND THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME WILL BE
DRY.

THE OTHER AREA WE ARE WATCHING IS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MOVES NORTHEAST.
WHILE LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THIS
IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A BIT
FURTHER NORTHWEST FOR A SHORT TIME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MAY SEE A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA
TOUCH 80.  DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S ARE BRINGING A MUGGY FEEL TO
THE AIR AND A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER AFTER YESTERDAY/S
VERY CHILLY START.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 211455
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1055 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCALES...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1055 AM UPDATE...

A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WERE STILL OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN
NH/NORTH CENTRAL MA AT LATE MORNING.  THE REST OF THE REGION WAS DRY
WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS...BUT THERE STILL WERE PEEKS OF SUN
AT TIMES ACROSS EASTERN MA/RHODE ISLAND.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY IN A GIVEN
LOCATION.  HOWEVER...ENOUGH HEATING/INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER A FEW
POP UP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  AGAIN...NOT
EXPECTING ANY THUNDER THOUGH AND THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME WILL BE
DRY.

THE OTHER AREA WE ARE WATCHING IS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MOVES NORTHEAST.
WHILE LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THIS
IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A BIT
FURTHER NORTHWEST FOR A SHORT TIME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MAY SEE A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA
TOUCH 80.  DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S ARE BRINGING A MUGGY FEEL TO
THE AIR AND A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER AFTER YESTERDAY/S
VERY CHILLY START.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KGYX 211402
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1002 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. A SECOND SURGE
OF COOL AIR MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER A COOL SHOT OF AIR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM...VISIBLE SAT PIX SHOWS SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NRN NH AND WRN ME
ATTM SO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND DROPPED POPS TO ZERO TO
REFLECT THESE CONDS FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OVER SOUTHERN AND
COASTAL AREAS MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.
MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS. NO OTHER
CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 1000 MILLIBAR LOW WAS SITUATED OVER
WESTERN QUEBEC WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECEDED THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WE`LL SEE VARIABLE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAT WILL CROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WITH APPROACH OF
FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING THAT WARMS TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT AND EXITS THE COAST BY MORNING
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER. ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. ON MONDAY...WE`LL
SEE LINGERING CLOUDS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH WILL RANGE FROM 50S
IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO NEAR 70 AT THE COAST WHERE WE`LL SEE THE
MOST SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 500MB TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH AREA TUE INTO WED...WILL BE
THE LAST WE SEE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS LARGE SCALE
RIDGINGDEVELOPS ACROSS ALL BUT THE WEST COAST OF NOAM...WITH THE
RIDGE PUSHING AS FAR N AS JAMES BAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...WILL START OUT WITH A BIT OF COOLER AIR MON NIGHT AND
A A SECOND SURGE OF COOLER AIR TUE AS 500MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THRU. IT COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS TUE....AND HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TUE AND WED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S
N TO MID 40S S. AFTER THIS THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDS AND
PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY WARM AIR TO THE
REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 10-15C RANGE. THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA /NEAR 80 IN
INTERIOR SRN NH AND SW ME/ AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY AND POPS 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR...AND
LCL IFR THIS MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TONIGHT WITH LCL
IFR...THEN BECOMING VFR MONDAY WITH SCT MVFR IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...OTHER THAN VLY FOG...TUE THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
AND SEAS NEAR 5 FT EXPECTED TODAY...THEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP
BELOW SCA TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS FROM PRIOR PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL START AT 5-6
FT MON NIGHT...BUT NW FLOW WILL KNOCK THESE BACK THRU TUE...AND
THEN LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 211402
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1002 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. A SECOND SURGE
OF COOL AIR MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER A COOL SHOT OF AIR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM...VISIBLE SAT PIX SHOWS SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NRN NH AND WRN ME
ATTM SO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND DROPPED POPS TO ZERO TO
REFLECT THESE CONDS FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OVER SOUTHERN AND
COASTAL AREAS MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.
MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS. NO OTHER
CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 1000 MILLIBAR LOW WAS SITUATED OVER
WESTERN QUEBEC WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECEDED THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WE`LL SEE VARIABLE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAT WILL CROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WITH APPROACH OF
FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING THAT WARMS TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT AND EXITS THE COAST BY MORNING
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER. ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. ON MONDAY...WE`LL
SEE LINGERING CLOUDS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH WILL RANGE FROM 50S
IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO NEAR 70 AT THE COAST WHERE WE`LL SEE THE
MOST SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 500MB TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH AREA TUE INTO WED...WILL BE
THE LAST WE SEE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS LARGE SCALE
RIDGINGDEVELOPS ACROSS ALL BUT THE WEST COAST OF NOAM...WITH THE
RIDGE PUSHING AS FAR N AS JAMES BAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...WILL START OUT WITH A BIT OF COOLER AIR MON NIGHT AND
A A SECOND SURGE OF COOLER AIR TUE AS 500MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THRU. IT COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS TUE....AND HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TUE AND WED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S
N TO MID 40S S. AFTER THIS THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDS AND
PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY WARM AIR TO THE
REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 10-15C RANGE. THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA /NEAR 80 IN
INTERIOR SRN NH AND SW ME/ AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY AND POPS 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR...AND
LCL IFR THIS MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TONIGHT WITH LCL
IFR...THEN BECOMING VFR MONDAY WITH SCT MVFR IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...OTHER THAN VLY FOG...TUE THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
AND SEAS NEAR 5 FT EXPECTED TODAY...THEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP
BELOW SCA TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS FROM PRIOR PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL START AT 5-6
FT MON NIGHT...BUT NW FLOW WILL KNOCK THESE BACK THRU TUE...AND
THEN LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KBOX 211318
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
918 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIT AND MISS SHOWERS TODAY ALONG WITH MUGGY WEATHER.  DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

910 AM UPDATE...

WHILE MOST OF THE REGION WAS DRY AT MID MORNING...A NARROW BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO AFFECT A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHERN
CT AND INTO CENTRAL MA.  THERE STILL WAS SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT NOT AS HEAVY WHAT WE SAW EARLIER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED A TAD.

OVERALL...SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  WE MAY SEE THEM EXPAND A BIT INTO EASTERN MA/RHODE
ISLAND BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASES...DESPITE
WEAKENING WIND FIELDS.  NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT THOUGH AS MUCH OF
THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER IN A SPECIFIC LOCATION.

THE OTHER MAIN FEATURE WE ARE WATCHING IS THE SYNOPTIC RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WHILE
LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A
BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT FOR A FEW HOURS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE TRICKY.  LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.  STILL RATHER HUMID THOUGH GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTH EASTERN MA/RI...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME 80 DEGREE HIGHS WHERE SUN WAS OUT THIS MORNING.  CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE IN THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.  CERTAINLY A DRAMATIC CHANGE
BACK TO SUMMER WEATHER AFTER THE VERY CHILLY START EARLY YESTERDAY
MORNING!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211318
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
918 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIT AND MISS SHOWERS TODAY ALONG WITH MUGGY WEATHER.  DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

910 AM UPDATE...

WHILE MOST OF THE REGION WAS DRY AT MID MORNING...A NARROW BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO AFFECT A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHERN
CT AND INTO CENTRAL MA.  THERE STILL WAS SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT NOT AS HEAVY WHAT WE SAW EARLIER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED A TAD.

OVERALL...SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  WE MAY SEE THEM EXPAND A BIT INTO EASTERN MA/RHODE
ISLAND BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASES...DESPITE
WEAKENING WIND FIELDS.  NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT THOUGH AS MUCH OF
THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER IN A SPECIFIC LOCATION.

THE OTHER MAIN FEATURE WE ARE WATCHING IS THE SYNOPTIC RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WHILE
LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A
BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT FOR A FEW HOURS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE TRICKY.  LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.  STILL RATHER HUMID THOUGH GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTH EASTERN MA/RI...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME 80 DEGREE HIGHS WHERE SUN WAS OUT THIS MORNING.  CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE IN THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.  CERTAINLY A DRAMATIC CHANGE
BACK TO SUMMER WEATHER AFTER THE VERY CHILLY START EARLY YESTERDAY
MORNING!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211318
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
918 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIT AND MISS SHOWERS TODAY ALONG WITH MUGGY WEATHER.  DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

910 AM UPDATE...

WHILE MOST OF THE REGION WAS DRY AT MID MORNING...A NARROW BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO AFFECT A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHERN
CT AND INTO CENTRAL MA.  THERE STILL WAS SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT NOT AS HEAVY WHAT WE SAW EARLIER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED A TAD.

OVERALL...SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  WE MAY SEE THEM EXPAND A BIT INTO EASTERN MA/RHODE
ISLAND BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASES...DESPITE
WEAKENING WIND FIELDS.  NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT THOUGH AS MUCH OF
THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER IN A SPECIFIC LOCATION.

THE OTHER MAIN FEATURE WE ARE WATCHING IS THE SYNOPTIC RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WHILE
LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A
BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT FOR A FEW HOURS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE TRICKY.  LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.  STILL RATHER HUMID THOUGH GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTH EASTERN MA/RI...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME 80 DEGREE HIGHS WHERE SUN WAS OUT THIS MORNING.  CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE IN THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.  CERTAINLY A DRAMATIC CHANGE
BACK TO SUMMER WEATHER AFTER THE VERY CHILLY START EARLY YESTERDAY
MORNING!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211318
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
918 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIT AND MISS SHOWERS TODAY ALONG WITH MUGGY WEATHER.  DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

910 AM UPDATE...

WHILE MOST OF THE REGION WAS DRY AT MID MORNING...A NARROW BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO AFFECT A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHERN
CT AND INTO CENTRAL MA.  THERE STILL WAS SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT NOT AS HEAVY WHAT WE SAW EARLIER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED A TAD.

OVERALL...SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  WE MAY SEE THEM EXPAND A BIT INTO EASTERN MA/RHODE
ISLAND BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASES...DESPITE
WEAKENING WIND FIELDS.  NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT THOUGH AS MUCH OF
THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER IN A SPECIFIC LOCATION.

THE OTHER MAIN FEATURE WE ARE WATCHING IS THE SYNOPTIC RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WHILE
LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A
BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT FOR A FEW HOURS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE TRICKY.  LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.  STILL RATHER HUMID THOUGH GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTH EASTERN MA/RI...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME 80 DEGREE HIGHS WHERE SUN WAS OUT THIS MORNING.  CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE IN THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.  CERTAINLY A DRAMATIC CHANGE
BACK TO SUMMER WEATHER AFTER THE VERY CHILLY START EARLY YESTERDAY
MORNING!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211313
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
913 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN-CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY DRIER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

910 AM UPDATE...

WHILE MOST OF THE REGION WAS DRY AT MID MORNING...A NARROW BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO AFFECT A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHERN
CT AND INTO CENTRAL MA.  THERE STILL WAS SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT NOT AS HEAVY WHAT WE SAW EARLIER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED A TAD.

OVERALL...SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  WE MAY SEE THEM EXPAND A BIT INTO EASTERN MA/RHODE
ISLAND BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASES...DESPITE
WEAKENING WIND FIELDS.  NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT THOUGH AS MUCH OF
THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER IN A SPECIFIC LOCATION.

THE OTHER MAIN FEATURE WE ARE WATCHING IS THE SYNOPTIC RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WHILE
LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A
BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT FOR A FEW HOURS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE TRICKY.  LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.  STILL RATHER HUMID THOUGH GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTH EASTERN MA/RI...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME 80 DEGREE HIGHS WHERE SUN WAS OUT THIS MORNING.  CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE IN THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.  CERTAINLY A DRAMATIC CHANGE
BACK TO SUMMER WEATHER AFTER THE VERY CHILLY START EARLY YESTERDAY
MORNING!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211313
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
913 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN-CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY DRIER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

910 AM UPDATE...

WHILE MOST OF THE REGION WAS DRY AT MID MORNING...A NARROW BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO AFFECT A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHERN
CT AND INTO CENTRAL MA.  THERE STILL WAS SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT NOT AS HEAVY WHAT WE SAW EARLIER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED A TAD.

OVERALL...SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  WE MAY SEE THEM EXPAND A BIT INTO EASTERN MA/RHODE
ISLAND BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASES...DESPITE
WEAKENING WIND FIELDS.  NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT THOUGH AS MUCH OF
THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER IN A SPECIFIC LOCATION.

THE OTHER MAIN FEATURE WE ARE WATCHING IS THE SYNOPTIC RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WHILE
LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A
BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT FOR A FEW HOURS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE TRICKY.  LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.  STILL RATHER HUMID THOUGH GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTH EASTERN MA/RI...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME 80 DEGREE HIGHS WHERE SUN WAS OUT THIS MORNING.  CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE IN THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.  CERTAINLY A DRAMATIC CHANGE
BACK TO SUMMER WEATHER AFTER THE VERY CHILLY START EARLY YESTERDAY
MORNING!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 211122
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
722 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN-CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY DRIER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
LEFTOVER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN A LINE FROM SW CT
INTO SE NH. THIS AS THE OFFSHORE INVERTED TROF WEAKENS.
THEREFORE...SUSPECT SHOWERS BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD THROUGH
MORNING ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH OFFSHORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AS OFFSHORE LOW PRES DEVELOPS. THESE MAY SLIDE ACROSS SE MA LATE
IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...BULK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE W THROUGH EVENING. MAY SEE BREAKS
AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PRONOUNCED INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...NYC AND THEN DRAPED ALONG THE NJ COAST. THIS BOUNDARY IS
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
TSTMS. THIS INVERTED TROUGH HAS ITS ROOTS IN A TROPICAL PLUME OF
MOISTURE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC COAST NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH PWATS UP TO 1.6 INCHES...ABOUT +1 STD ABOVE CLIMO.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALMOST MOIST
ADIABATIC AT 6C/KM. THIS IS RESULTING IN EMBEDDED TSTMS WITHIN THESE
BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN.

THE RAP13 HAS BEEN SIMULATING THESE RAIN BANDS THE BEST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR. THE RAP13 SHOWS OVER AN INCH OF TOTAL
RAINFALL POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY ACROSS CT INTO WESTERN-CENTRAL MA...WITH
LESS ELSEWHERE. THE INVERTED TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH TROPICAL PLUME MOVING OFFSHORE AND BEING REPLACED BY MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT AFTER 18Z. THUS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THIS
MORNING.

AS SOME SURFACE HEATING MATERIALIZES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DEW
PTS CLIMBING TO 65-70 ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 750 TO 1500 J/KG OF
CAPE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND THIS MAY
PROVIDE A CAP AND RESULT IN SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THIS MORNING STRONGEST WIND FIELDS INCLUDING
0-1KM SHEAR ARE ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. MEANWHILE BEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE. THUS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT
COLOCATED. HENCE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS VERY LOW. AS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...MARGINAL SB INSTABILITY DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR
BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO MARGINAL AT LESS THAN 30 KT. IN
ADDITION DRY SLOT OVERSPREADING THE REGION SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS.

THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID ATLC TROUGH MAY CLIP
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A SUMMER-ISH AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S
AND POSSIBLY NEARING 80 ALONG WITH DEW PTS 65 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 211122
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
722 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN-CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY DRIER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
LEFTOVER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN A LINE FROM SW CT
INTO SE NH. THIS AS THE OFFSHORE INVERTED TROF WEAKENS.
THEREFORE...SUSPECT SHOWERS BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD THROUGH
MORNING ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH OFFSHORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AS OFFSHORE LOW PRES DEVELOPS. THESE MAY SLIDE ACROSS SE MA LATE
IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...BULK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE W THROUGH EVENING. MAY SEE BREAKS
AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PRONOUNCED INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...NYC AND THEN DRAPED ALONG THE NJ COAST. THIS BOUNDARY IS
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
TSTMS. THIS INVERTED TROUGH HAS ITS ROOTS IN A TROPICAL PLUME OF
MOISTURE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC COAST NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH PWATS UP TO 1.6 INCHES...ABOUT +1 STD ABOVE CLIMO.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALMOST MOIST
ADIABATIC AT 6C/KM. THIS IS RESULTING IN EMBEDDED TSTMS WITHIN THESE
BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN.

THE RAP13 HAS BEEN SIMULATING THESE RAIN BANDS THE BEST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR. THE RAP13 SHOWS OVER AN INCH OF TOTAL
RAINFALL POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY ACROSS CT INTO WESTERN-CENTRAL MA...WITH
LESS ELSEWHERE. THE INVERTED TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH TROPICAL PLUME MOVING OFFSHORE AND BEING REPLACED BY MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT AFTER 18Z. THUS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THIS
MORNING.

AS SOME SURFACE HEATING MATERIALIZES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DEW
PTS CLIMBING TO 65-70 ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 750 TO 1500 J/KG OF
CAPE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND THIS MAY
PROVIDE A CAP AND RESULT IN SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THIS MORNING STRONGEST WIND FIELDS INCLUDING
0-1KM SHEAR ARE ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. MEANWHILE BEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE. THUS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT
COLOCATED. HENCE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS VERY LOW. AS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...MARGINAL SB INSTABILITY DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR
BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO MARGINAL AT LESS THAN 30 KT. IN
ADDITION DRY SLOT OVERSPREADING THE REGION SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS.

THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID ATLC TROUGH MAY CLIP
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A SUMMER-ISH AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S
AND POSSIBLY NEARING 80 ALONG WITH DEW PTS 65 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KGYX 210950
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
550 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. A SECOND SURGE
OF COOL AIR MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER A COOL SHOT OF AIR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

550 AM...FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD POPS UP TO
LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST
MAINE TO REFLECT CURENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE MESONET.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 1000 MILLIBAR LOW WAS SITUATED OVER
WESTERN QUEBEC WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECEDED THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WE`LL SEE VARIABLE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAT WILL CROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WITH APPROACH OF
FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING THAT WARMS TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT AND EXITS THE COAST BY MORNING
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER. ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. ON MONDAY...WE`LL
SEE LINGERING CLOUDS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH WILL RANGE FROM 50S
IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO NEAR 70 AT THE COAST WHERE WE`LL SEE THE
MOST SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 500MB TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH AREA TUE INTO WED...WILL BE
THE LAST WE SEE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS LARGE SCALE
RIDGINGDEVELOPS ACROSS ALL BUT THE WEST COAST OF NOAM...WITH THE
RIDGE PUSHING AS FAR N AS JAMES BAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...WILL START OUT WITH A BIT OF COOLER AIR MON NIGHT AND
A A SECOND SURGE OF COOLER AIR TUE AS 500MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THRU. IT COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS TUE....AND HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TUE AND WED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S
N TO MID 40S S. AFTER THIS THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDS AND
PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY WARM AIR TO THE
REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 10-15C RANGE. THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA /NEAR 80 IN
INTERIOR SRN NH AND SW ME/ AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY AND POPS 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR...AND
LCL IFR THIS MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TONIGHT WITH LCL
IFR...THEN BECOMING VFR MONDAY WITH SCT MVFR IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...OTHER THAN VLY FOG...TUE THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
AND SEAS NEAR 5 FT EXPECTED TODAY...THEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP
BELOW SCA TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS FROM PRIOR PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL START AT 5-6
FT MON NIGHT...BUT NW FLOW WILL KNOCK THESE BACK THRU TUE...AND
THEN LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KBOX 210814
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
414 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN-CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY DRIER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PRONOUNCED INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...NYC AND THEN DRAPED ALONG THE NJ COAST. THIS BOUNDARY IS
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
TSTMS. THIS INVERTED TROUGH HAS ITS ROOTS IN A TROPICAL PLUME OF
MOISTURE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC COAST NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH PWATS UP TO 1.6 INCHES...ABOUT +1 STD ABOVE CLIMO.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALMOST MOIST
ADIABATIC AT 6C/KM. THIS IS RESULTING IN EMBEDDED TSTMS WITHIN THESE
BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN.

THE RAP13 HAS BEEN SIMULATING THESE RAIN BANDS THE BEST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR. THE RAP13 SHOWS OVER AN INCH OF TOTAL
RAINFALL POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY ACROSS CT INTO WESTERN-CENTRAL MA...WITH
LESS ELSEWHERE. THE INVERTED TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH TROPICAL PLUME MOVING OFFSHORE AND BEING REPLACED BY MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT AFTER 18Z. THUS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THIS
MORNING.

AS SOME SURFACE HEATING MATERIALIZES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DEW
PTS CLIMBING TO 65-70 ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 750 TO 1500 J/KG OF
CAPE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND THIS MAY
PROVIDE A CAP AND RESULT IN SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THIS MORNING STRONGEST WIND FIELDS INCLUDING
0-1KM SHEAR ARE ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. MEANWHILE BEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE. THUS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT
COLOCATED. HENCE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS VERY LOW. AS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...MARGINAL SB INSTABILITY DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR
BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO MARGINAL AT LESS THAN 30 KT. IN
ADDITION DRY SLOT OVERSPREADING THE REGION SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS.

THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID ATLC TROUGH MAY CLIP
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A SUMMER-ISH AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S
AND POSSIBLY NEARING 80 ALONG WITH DEW PTS 65 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

230 AM UPDATE...

THRU 12Z...MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS CT
AND WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. ELSEWHERE VFR BUT
EVENTUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR AS SHOWERS SHIFT TOWARD RI AND EASTERN
MA TOWARD 12Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

AFTER 12Z...MAINLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVY RAIN. LOW PROB OF IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAY CLIP NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD. SHOWERS BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF AND MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER 18Z. VERY LOW RISK OF AN
ISOLATED TSTM ALONG SOUTH COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE..HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS EARLY.
CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KGYX 210717
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
317 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. A SECOND SURGE
OF COOL AIR MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER A COOL SHOT OF AIR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A 1000 MILLIBAR LOW WAS SITUATED OVER WESTERN QUEBEC
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECEDED THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. WE`LL SEE VARIABLE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WITH APPROACH OF FRONT AND DAYTIME
HEATING THAT WARMS TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT AND EXITS THE COAST BY MORNING
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER. ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. ON MONDAY...WE`LL
SEE LINGERING CLOUDS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH WILL RANGE FROM 50S
IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO NEAR 70 AT THE COAST WHERE WE`LL SEE THE
MOST SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 500MB TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH AREA TUE INTO WED...WILL BE
THE LAST WE SEE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS LARGE SCALE
RIDGINGDEVELOPS ACROSS ALL BUT THE WEST COAST OF NOAM...WITH THE
RIDGE PUSHING AS FAR N AS JAMES BAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...WILL START OUT WITH A BIT OF COOLER AIR MON NIGHT AND
A A SECOND SURGE OF COOLER AIR TUE AS 500MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THRU. IT COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS TUE....AND HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TUE AND WED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S
N TO MID 40S S. AFTER THIS THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDS AND
PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY WARM AIR TO THE
REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 10-15C RANGE. THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA /NEAR 80 IN
INTERIOR SRN NH AND SW ME/ AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY AND POPS 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR...AND
LCL IFR THIS MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TONIGHT WITH LCL
IFR...THEN BECOMING VFR MONDAY WITH SCT MVFR IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...OTHER THAN VLY FOG...TUE THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
AND SEAS NEAR 5 FT EXPECTED TODAY...THEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP
BELOW SCA TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS FROM PRIOR PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL START AT 5-6
FT MON NIGHT...BUT NW FLOW WILL KNOCK THESE BACK THRU TUE...AND
THEN LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SCHWIBS/CEMPA
NEAR TERM...SCHWIBS
SHORT TERM...SCHWIBS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...SCHWIBS
MARINE...SCHWIBS/CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 210717
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
317 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. A SECOND SURGE
OF COOL AIR MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER A COOL SHOT OF AIR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A 1000 MILLIBAR LOW WAS SITUATED OVER WESTERN QUEBEC
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECEDED THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. WE`LL SEE VARIABLE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WITH APPROACH OF FRONT AND DAYTIME
HEATING THAT WARMS TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT AND EXITS THE COAST BY MORNING
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER. ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. ON MONDAY...WE`LL
SEE LINGERING CLOUDS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH WILL RANGE FROM 50S
IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO NEAR 70 AT THE COAST WHERE WE`LL SEE THE
MOST SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 500MB TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH AREA TUE INTO WED...WILL BE
THE LAST WE SEE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS LARGE SCALE
RIDGINGDEVELOPS ACROSS ALL BUT THE WEST COAST OF NOAM...WITH THE
RIDGE PUSHING AS FAR N AS JAMES BAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...WILL START OUT WITH A BIT OF COOLER AIR MON NIGHT AND
A A SECOND SURGE OF COOLER AIR TUE AS 500MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THRU. IT COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS TUE....AND HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TUE AND WED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S
N TO MID 40S S. AFTER THIS THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDS AND
PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY WARM AIR TO THE
REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 10-15C RANGE. THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA /NEAR 80 IN
INTERIOR SRN NH AND SW ME/ AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY AND POPS 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR...AND
LCL IFR THIS MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TONIGHT WITH LCL
IFR...THEN BECOMING VFR MONDAY WITH SCT MVFR IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...OTHER THAN VLY FOG...TUE THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
AND SEAS NEAR 5 FT EXPECTED TODAY...THEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP
BELOW SCA TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS FROM PRIOR PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL START AT 5-6
FT MON NIGHT...BUT NW FLOW WILL KNOCK THESE BACK THRU TUE...AND
THEN LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SCHWIBS/CEMPA
NEAR TERM...SCHWIBS
SHORT TERM...SCHWIBS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...SCHWIBS
MARINE...SCHWIBS/CEMPA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 210625
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
225 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE EXPECTED
INTO SUN MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS DRY AND RATHER MILD BY SUN
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS START OFF COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODERATE TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

230 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM LONG ISLAND
NORTHWARD ACROSS CT/WESTERN- CENTRAL MA FROM MID ATLC TROUGH.
PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THIS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD BETWEEN WESTERN ATLC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES.
SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES OFF THE MID
ATLC ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE MID 70S! 00Z OBSERVED UPPER
AIR SOUNDING FROM OKX ON LONG ISLAND INDICATES COLUMN IS FAIRLY
MOIST BELOW 700 MB.

THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WEAK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT AS
CONVECTION FIRES EAST OF NJ. THUS WEAK FORCING BUT COUPLED WITH
INSTABILITY ALOFT AND PWATS CLIMBING TO +1 STD ABOVE CLIMO MAY
YIELD SOME TROPICAL DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT ACROSS CT AND INTO WEST-
CENTRAL MA AFTER 06Z. AFTER 12Z SHOWERS MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO RI
AND EASTERN MA. 12Z ECMWF AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP13
APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL THRU 01Z.
THEREFORE WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY AND ALSO MATCHES UP WELL WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

RAP13 HAS STORM TOTAL QPF UP TO 0.60 INCHES BY 18Z ACROSS CT AND
WEST-CENTRAL MA. OBVIOUSLY LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE TROPICAL CONNECTION AND WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT
MAY YIELD EMBEDDED TSTMS. EARLIER DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

A SHORTWAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE A 30 TO 40 KNOT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...TRANSPORTING DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A BURST OF
INSTABILITY AND A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING FROM.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z. WEST TO EAST. TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 6Z AND 15Z.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL...BUT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH
ELEVATED CAPE FOR A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY LOW SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH 0
TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS/0 TO 1 KM HELICITY AROUND
100...AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE....CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NEAR THE SOUTH COAST SUNDAY MORNING.
AGAIN THOUGH...THAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY BUT
SOMETHING WILL NEED TO WATCH.

THE STEADY AND HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GIVEN LIMITED
BAROCLINICITY/FRONTOGENESIS.  HOWEVER...IT STILL MAY SCRAPE THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR A TIME WHERE PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES
SO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

IN A NUTSHELL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING.  WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A SOAKING
RAIN BY ANY MEANS...BUT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST IF THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
CAN MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTHWEST.  OTHERWISE...MOST OF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY WITH JUST A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND THE
REGION...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER.

LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE.  LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S AND IT WILL FEEL A BIT
HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S!

LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.  A LOT OF
MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ALONG THE FRONT.  THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW SP.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.OT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
THE INTERIOR LATE SUN AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY IN A GIVEN LOCATION. LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

*LOW CHANCE SHOWERS MON. THEN DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK
*COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK...MODERATING BY WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.
THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TROUGH DRAPED OVER
THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AS TIME GOES ON AND THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES NORTH INTO
CANADA. GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLE NAO AND AO TELECONNECTION
FORECASTS TO STAY IN THE POSITIVE PHASES. THE PNA LOOKS TO START
POSITIVE AND GO NEUTRAL AS TIME GOES ON...BUT THEN MODELS DIVERGE IN
THEIR OUTPUTS AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALLOWS FOR SOME SPREAD.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...THE MORNING BEGINS WITH A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT IS
FIGHTING WITH SOME DRY MIDLEVELS ALLOWING SOME OF THE PRECIP TO DRY
UP. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG MIXING OCCURS UP
TO AROUND 850 MB WHERE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS EXIST SO GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 850 MB TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE
AROUND 10C SO MID TO UPPER 70S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE.
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS WON/T GET THAT HIGH AS THE FRONT CROSS THROUGH
TOO EARLY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG 1035 MB
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES INTO THE REGION WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. DRY
WEATHER WILL ALSO PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THINK THE
ECMWF MAY HAVE IT TOO FAR NORTH WHILE THE 6Z GFS HAS IT FURTHER
SOUTH. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS JET WILL GIVE US WHEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVE NORTH FROM MOISTURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST US. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE UPPER JET UP NORTH SO BETTER
CHANCE FOR COOLING TEMPS AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
DRY SPELL WE/VE BEEN HAVING. IN PERIODS OF ONSHORE WINDS...FOG COULD
OCCUR.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

230 AM UPDATE...

THRU 12Z...

MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS CT AND WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. ELSEWHERE VFR BUT EVENTUALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR AS SHOWERS SHIFT TOWARD RI AND EASTERN MA TOWARD
12Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

AFTER 12Z...MAINLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVY RAIN. LOW PROB OF IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAY CLIP NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD. SHOWERS BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF AND MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER 18Z. VERY LOW RISK OF AN
ISOLATED TSTM ALONG SOUTH COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE..HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS EARLY.
CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.
VFR THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR ANY SHOWERS ON MONDAY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE MVFR COULD BE NEEDED. WINDS AROUND 10KTS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 OR 25KTS IN PLACES. THESE
WINDS DIE OFF ON TUESDAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT 5
FOOT SEAS COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP WAVES JUST BELOW FOR NOW.  LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL AND PERHAPS THE NEED FOR A SHORT
FUSED SCA ADVISORY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...SWELL FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCA SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.  SINCE ITS MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL DEFER THE ISSUANCE
OF HEADLINES TO THE NEXT SHIFT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT THE WATERS THIS MORNING.  THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

SEAS FROM 5 TO 8FT ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS...AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD FOR THE SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/99
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...NOCERA/99
MARINE...FRANK/99



000
FXUS61 KBOX 210625
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
225 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE EXPECTED
INTO SUN MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS DRY AND RATHER MILD BY SUN
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS START OFF COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODERATE TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

230 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM LONG ISLAND
NORTHWARD ACROSS CT/WESTERN- CENTRAL MA FROM MID ATLC TROUGH.
PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THIS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD BETWEEN WESTERN ATLC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES.
SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES OFF THE MID
ATLC ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE MID 70S! 00Z OBSERVED UPPER
AIR SOUNDING FROM OKX ON LONG ISLAND INDICATES COLUMN IS FAIRLY
MOIST BELOW 700 MB.

THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WEAK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT AS
CONVECTION FIRES EAST OF NJ. THUS WEAK FORCING BUT COUPLED WITH
INSTABILITY ALOFT AND PWATS CLIMBING TO +1 STD ABOVE CLIMO MAY
YIELD SOME TROPICAL DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT ACROSS CT AND INTO WEST-
CENTRAL MA AFTER 06Z. AFTER 12Z SHOWERS MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO RI
AND EASTERN MA. 12Z ECMWF AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP13
APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL THRU 01Z.
THEREFORE WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY AND ALSO MATCHES UP WELL WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

RAP13 HAS STORM TOTAL QPF UP TO 0.60 INCHES BY 18Z ACROSS CT AND
WEST-CENTRAL MA. OBVIOUSLY LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE TROPICAL CONNECTION AND WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT
MAY YIELD EMBEDDED TSTMS. EARLIER DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

A SHORTWAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE A 30 TO 40 KNOT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...TRANSPORTING DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A BURST OF
INSTABILITY AND A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING FROM.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z. WEST TO EAST. TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 6Z AND 15Z.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL...BUT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH
ELEVATED CAPE FOR A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY LOW SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH 0
TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS/0 TO 1 KM HELICITY AROUND
100...AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE....CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NEAR THE SOUTH COAST SUNDAY MORNING.
AGAIN THOUGH...THAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY BUT
SOMETHING WILL NEED TO WATCH.

THE STEADY AND HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GIVEN LIMITED
BAROCLINICITY/FRONTOGENESIS.  HOWEVER...IT STILL MAY SCRAPE THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR A TIME WHERE PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES
SO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

IN A NUTSHELL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING.  WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A SOAKING
RAIN BY ANY MEANS...BUT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST IF THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
CAN MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTHWEST.  OTHERWISE...MOST OF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY WITH JUST A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND THE
REGION...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER.

LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE.  LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S AND IT WILL FEEL A BIT
HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S!

LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.  A LOT OF
MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ALONG THE FRONT.  THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW SP.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.OT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
THE INTERIOR LATE SUN AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY IN A GIVEN LOCATION. LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

*LOW CHANCE SHOWERS MON. THEN DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK
*COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK...MODERATING BY WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.
THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TROUGH DRAPED OVER
THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AS TIME GOES ON AND THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES NORTH INTO
CANADA. GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLE NAO AND AO TELECONNECTION
FORECASTS TO STAY IN THE POSITIVE PHASES. THE PNA LOOKS TO START
POSITIVE AND GO NEUTRAL AS TIME GOES ON...BUT THEN MODELS DIVERGE IN
THEIR OUTPUTS AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALLOWS FOR SOME SPREAD.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...THE MORNING BEGINS WITH A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT IS
FIGHTING WITH SOME DRY MIDLEVELS ALLOWING SOME OF THE PRECIP TO DRY
UP. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG MIXING OCCURS UP
TO AROUND 850 MB WHERE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS EXIST SO GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 850 MB TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE
AROUND 10C SO MID TO UPPER 70S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE.
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS WON/T GET THAT HIGH AS THE FRONT CROSS THROUGH
TOO EARLY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG 1035 MB
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES INTO THE REGION WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. DRY
WEATHER WILL ALSO PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THINK THE
ECMWF MAY HAVE IT TOO FAR NORTH WHILE THE 6Z GFS HAS IT FURTHER
SOUTH. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS JET WILL GIVE US WHEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVE NORTH FROM MOISTURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST US. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE UPPER JET UP NORTH SO BETTER
CHANCE FOR COOLING TEMPS AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
DRY SPELL WE/VE BEEN HAVING. IN PERIODS OF ONSHORE WINDS...FOG COULD
OCCUR.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

230 AM UPDATE...

THRU 12Z...

MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS CT AND WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. ELSEWHERE VFR BUT EVENTUALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR AS SHOWERS SHIFT TOWARD RI AND EASTERN MA TOWARD
12Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

AFTER 12Z...MAINLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVY RAIN. LOW PROB OF IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAY CLIP NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD. SHOWERS BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF AND MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER 18Z. VERY LOW RISK OF AN
ISOLATED TSTM ALONG SOUTH COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE..HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS EARLY.
CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.
VFR THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR ANY SHOWERS ON MONDAY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE MVFR COULD BE NEEDED. WINDS AROUND 10KTS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 OR 25KTS IN PLACES. THESE
WINDS DIE OFF ON TUESDAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT 5
FOOT SEAS COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP WAVES JUST BELOW FOR NOW.  LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL AND PERHAPS THE NEED FOR A SHORT
FUSED SCA ADVISORY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...SWELL FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCA SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.  SINCE ITS MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL DEFER THE ISSUANCE
OF HEADLINES TO THE NEXT SHIFT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT THE WATERS THIS MORNING.  THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

SEAS FROM 5 TO 8FT ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS...AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD FOR THE SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/99
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...NOCERA/99
MARINE...FRANK/99



000
FXUS61 KBOX 210625
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
225 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE EXPECTED
INTO SUN MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS DRY AND RATHER MILD BY SUN
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS START OFF COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODERATE TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

230 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM LONG ISLAND
NORTHWARD ACROSS CT/WESTERN- CENTRAL MA FROM MID ATLC TROUGH.
PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THIS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD BETWEEN WESTERN ATLC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES.
SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES OFF THE MID
ATLC ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE MID 70S! 00Z OBSERVED UPPER
AIR SOUNDING FROM OKX ON LONG ISLAND INDICATES COLUMN IS FAIRLY
MOIST BELOW 700 MB.

THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WEAK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT AS
CONVECTION FIRES EAST OF NJ. THUS WEAK FORCING BUT COUPLED WITH
INSTABILITY ALOFT AND PWATS CLIMBING TO +1 STD ABOVE CLIMO MAY
YIELD SOME TROPICAL DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT ACROSS CT AND INTO WEST-
CENTRAL MA AFTER 06Z. AFTER 12Z SHOWERS MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO RI
AND EASTERN MA. 12Z ECMWF AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP13
APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL THRU 01Z.
THEREFORE WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY AND ALSO MATCHES UP WELL WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

RAP13 HAS STORM TOTAL QPF UP TO 0.60 INCHES BY 18Z ACROSS CT AND
WEST-CENTRAL MA. OBVIOUSLY LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE TROPICAL CONNECTION AND WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT
MAY YIELD EMBEDDED TSTMS. EARLIER DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

A SHORTWAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE A 30 TO 40 KNOT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...TRANSPORTING DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A BURST OF
INSTABILITY AND A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING FROM.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z. WEST TO EAST. TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 6Z AND 15Z.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL...BUT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH
ELEVATED CAPE FOR A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY LOW SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH 0
TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS/0 TO 1 KM HELICITY AROUND
100...AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE....CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NEAR THE SOUTH COAST SUNDAY MORNING.
AGAIN THOUGH...THAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY BUT
SOMETHING WILL NEED TO WATCH.

THE STEADY AND HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GIVEN LIMITED
BAROCLINICITY/FRONTOGENESIS.  HOWEVER...IT STILL MAY SCRAPE THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR A TIME WHERE PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES
SO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

IN A NUTSHELL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING.  WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A SOAKING
RAIN BY ANY MEANS...BUT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST IF THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
CAN MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTHWEST.  OTHERWISE...MOST OF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY WITH JUST A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND THE
REGION...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER.

LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE.  LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S AND IT WILL FEEL A BIT
HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S!

LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.  A LOT OF
MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ALONG THE FRONT.  THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW SP.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.OT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
THE INTERIOR LATE SUN AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY IN A GIVEN LOCATION. LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

*LOW CHANCE SHOWERS MON. THEN DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK
*COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK...MODERATING BY WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.
THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TROUGH DRAPED OVER
THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AS TIME GOES ON AND THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES NORTH INTO
CANADA. GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLE NAO AND AO TELECONNECTION
FORECASTS TO STAY IN THE POSITIVE PHASES. THE PNA LOOKS TO START
POSITIVE AND GO NEUTRAL AS TIME GOES ON...BUT THEN MODELS DIVERGE IN
THEIR OUTPUTS AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALLOWS FOR SOME SPREAD.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...THE MORNING BEGINS WITH A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT IS
FIGHTING WITH SOME DRY MIDLEVELS ALLOWING SOME OF THE PRECIP TO DRY
UP. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG MIXING OCCURS UP
TO AROUND 850 MB WHERE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS EXIST SO GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 850 MB TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE
AROUND 10C SO MID TO UPPER 70S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE.
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS WON/T GET THAT HIGH AS THE FRONT CROSS THROUGH
TOO EARLY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG 1035 MB
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES INTO THE REGION WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. DRY
WEATHER WILL ALSO PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THINK THE
ECMWF MAY HAVE IT TOO FAR NORTH WHILE THE 6Z GFS HAS IT FURTHER
SOUTH. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS JET WILL GIVE US WHEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVE NORTH FROM MOISTURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST US. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE UPPER JET UP NORTH SO BETTER
CHANCE FOR COOLING TEMPS AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
DRY SPELL WE/VE BEEN HAVING. IN PERIODS OF ONSHORE WINDS...FOG COULD
OCCUR.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

230 AM UPDATE...

THRU 12Z...

MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS CT AND WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. ELSEWHERE VFR BUT EVENTUALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR AS SHOWERS SHIFT TOWARD RI AND EASTERN MA TOWARD
12Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

AFTER 12Z...MAINLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVY RAIN. LOW PROB OF IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAY CLIP NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD. SHOWERS BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF AND MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER 18Z. VERY LOW RISK OF AN
ISOLATED TSTM ALONG SOUTH COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE..HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS EARLY.
CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.
VFR THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR ANY SHOWERS ON MONDAY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE MVFR COULD BE NEEDED. WINDS AROUND 10KTS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 OR 25KTS IN PLACES. THESE
WINDS DIE OFF ON TUESDAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT 5
FOOT SEAS COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP WAVES JUST BELOW FOR NOW.  LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL AND PERHAPS THE NEED FOR A SHORT
FUSED SCA ADVISORY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...SWELL FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCA SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.  SINCE ITS MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL DEFER THE ISSUANCE
OF HEADLINES TO THE NEXT SHIFT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT THE WATERS THIS MORNING.  THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

SEAS FROM 5 TO 8FT ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS...AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD FOR THE SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/99
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...NOCERA/99
MARINE...FRANK/99



000
FXUS61 KBOX 210625
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
225 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE EXPECTED
INTO SUN MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS DRY AND RATHER MILD BY SUN
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS START OFF COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODERATE TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

230 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM LONG ISLAND
NORTHWARD ACROSS CT/WESTERN- CENTRAL MA FROM MID ATLC TROUGH.
PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THIS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD BETWEEN WESTERN ATLC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES.
SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES OFF THE MID
ATLC ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE MID 70S! 00Z OBSERVED UPPER
AIR SOUNDING FROM OKX ON LONG ISLAND INDICATES COLUMN IS FAIRLY
MOIST BELOW 700 MB.

THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WEAK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT AS
CONVECTION FIRES EAST OF NJ. THUS WEAK FORCING BUT COUPLED WITH
INSTABILITY ALOFT AND PWATS CLIMBING TO +1 STD ABOVE CLIMO MAY
YIELD SOME TROPICAL DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT ACROSS CT AND INTO WEST-
CENTRAL MA AFTER 06Z. AFTER 12Z SHOWERS MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO RI
AND EASTERN MA. 12Z ECMWF AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP13
APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL THRU 01Z.
THEREFORE WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY AND ALSO MATCHES UP WELL WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

RAP13 HAS STORM TOTAL QPF UP TO 0.60 INCHES BY 18Z ACROSS CT AND
WEST-CENTRAL MA. OBVIOUSLY LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE TROPICAL CONNECTION AND WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT
MAY YIELD EMBEDDED TSTMS. EARLIER DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

A SHORTWAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE A 30 TO 40 KNOT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...TRANSPORTING DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A BURST OF
INSTABILITY AND A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING FROM.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z. WEST TO EAST. TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 6Z AND 15Z.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL...BUT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH
ELEVATED CAPE FOR A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY LOW SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH 0
TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS/0 TO 1 KM HELICITY AROUND
100...AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE....CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NEAR THE SOUTH COAST SUNDAY MORNING.
AGAIN THOUGH...THAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY BUT
SOMETHING WILL NEED TO WATCH.

THE STEADY AND HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GIVEN LIMITED
BAROCLINICITY/FRONTOGENESIS.  HOWEVER...IT STILL MAY SCRAPE THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR A TIME WHERE PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES
SO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

IN A NUTSHELL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING.  WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A SOAKING
RAIN BY ANY MEANS...BUT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST IF THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
CAN MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTHWEST.  OTHERWISE...MOST OF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY WITH JUST A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND THE
REGION...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER.

LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE.  LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S AND IT WILL FEEL A BIT
HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S!

LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.  A LOT OF
MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ALONG THE FRONT.  THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW SP.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.OT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
THE INTERIOR LATE SUN AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY IN A GIVEN LOCATION. LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

*LOW CHANCE SHOWERS MON. THEN DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK
*COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK...MODERATING BY WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.
THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TROUGH DRAPED OVER
THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AS TIME GOES ON AND THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES NORTH INTO
CANADA. GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLE NAO AND AO TELECONNECTION
FORECASTS TO STAY IN THE POSITIVE PHASES. THE PNA LOOKS TO START
POSITIVE AND GO NEUTRAL AS TIME GOES ON...BUT THEN MODELS DIVERGE IN
THEIR OUTPUTS AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALLOWS FOR SOME SPREAD.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...THE MORNING BEGINS WITH A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT IS
FIGHTING WITH SOME DRY MIDLEVELS ALLOWING SOME OF THE PRECIP TO DRY
UP. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG MIXING OCCURS UP
TO AROUND 850 MB WHERE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS EXIST SO GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 850 MB TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE
AROUND 10C SO MID TO UPPER 70S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE.
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS WON/T GET THAT HIGH AS THE FRONT CROSS THROUGH
TOO EARLY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG 1035 MB
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES INTO THE REGION WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. DRY
WEATHER WILL ALSO PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THINK THE
ECMWF MAY HAVE IT TOO FAR NORTH WHILE THE 6Z GFS HAS IT FURTHER
SOUTH. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS JET WILL GIVE US WHEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVE NORTH FROM MOISTURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST US. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE UPPER JET UP NORTH SO BETTER
CHANCE FOR COOLING TEMPS AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
DRY SPELL WE/VE BEEN HAVING. IN PERIODS OF ONSHORE WINDS...FOG COULD
OCCUR.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

230 AM UPDATE...

THRU 12Z...

MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS CT AND WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. ELSEWHERE VFR BUT EVENTUALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR AS SHOWERS SHIFT TOWARD RI AND EASTERN MA TOWARD
12Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

AFTER 12Z...MAINLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVY RAIN. LOW PROB OF IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAY CLIP NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD. SHOWERS BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF AND MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER 18Z. VERY LOW RISK OF AN
ISOLATED TSTM ALONG SOUTH COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE..HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS EARLY.
CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.
VFR THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR ANY SHOWERS ON MONDAY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE MVFR COULD BE NEEDED. WINDS AROUND 10KTS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 OR 25KTS IN PLACES. THESE
WINDS DIE OFF ON TUESDAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT 5
FOOT SEAS COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP WAVES JUST BELOW FOR NOW.  LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL AND PERHAPS THE NEED FOR A SHORT
FUSED SCA ADVISORY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...SWELL FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCA SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.  SINCE ITS MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL DEFER THE ISSUANCE
OF HEADLINES TO THE NEXT SHIFT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT THE WATERS THIS MORNING.  THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

SEAS FROM 5 TO 8FT ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS...AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD FOR THE SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/99
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...NOCERA/99
MARINE...FRANK/99



000
FXUS61 KGYX 210231
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1030 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MINOR
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA...MAINLY SKY COVER. SKIES CONTINUE
TO CLEAR OUT AND SHOULD BE THE TREND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER
3 AM...EXPECT COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.

7 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. THIS EVENING SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT DRY. WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS
STRENGTHENS AS K-INDICES RISE AND SHOWALTER INDICES DROP TO AROUND
ZERO. SHOWERS ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH AN ISOLD RUMBLE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

PREVIOUSLY...

12Z SOUNDING NOTED SW FLOW AND A SATURATED LAYER FROM ABOUT 925 TO
800MB THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW THIS LAYER CONTINUING
TONIGHT AS WAA CONTINUES AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR PUSHES INTO THE
REGION. EXPECTING CLOUD COVER AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...WITH ALMOST ALL AREAS STAYING IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD ALSO HELP IN THE FORMATION OF FOG OVER
THE WATERS AND ALONG COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING THE WAVE/LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE WAVE/LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TOMORROW AND
PASS VERY CLOSE TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL NOT SUPPLY MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL TO THE AREA BUT
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL BE NOTED AS PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
THE 1.7 RANGE TOMORROW...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THIS MOISTURE COMBINING WITH A WEAK LEADING
SHORT WAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAYBE BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE TO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL KICK OFF SCT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THE INSTABILITY IS LOOKING MODEST AT BEST. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A STORM WILL BE IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...WHERE
BREAKS OF SUN AND HEATING IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AND INTO EASTERN MAINE
MONDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT OVER THE INTERIOR AND
ALONG THE COAST AS DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY JUST
REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD SEE A
DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DUE TO THIS WITH
UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO DIP DOWN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND IS ENTRENCHED ALONG THE GREEN AND WHITE MOUNTAIN
BASINS. THERE WILL BE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 30S BUT THE
MAJORITY OF SITES SHOULD HOVER IN THE MID 30S. THIS IS PARTLY DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE JETSTREAK AND SOME LINGERING MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S. ANOTHER REINFORCING COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY...BUT THE SOURCE IS WELL NORTH AND WILL RESULT IN
LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS PLEASANT AND PRECIPITATION FREE
AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRANSITION INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND QUICKLY
DROPPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
FOG AND LOW STRATUS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE IFR
CONDITIONS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CEILINGS AND
VIS SHOULD THEN INCREASE TO MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS MONDAY
MORNING..MAINLY IN MOUNTAIN TERMINALS IN SHOWERS AND FOG. FOG WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN TERMINALS TUESDAY MORNING. VFR WILL
PREVAIL THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS AROUND TO 25
KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FT ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A SCA FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE




000
FXUS61 KBOX 210149
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
949 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE EXPECTED
VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS DRY AND RATHER
MILD BY SUN AFTERNOON.  A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK.  TEMPS START OFF COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODERATE TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

945 PM UPDATE...

TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD BETWEEN WESTERN ATLC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES.
SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES OFF THE MID
ATLC ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE MID 70S! 00Z OBSERVED UPPER
AIR SOUNDING FROM OKX ON LONG ISLAND INDICATES COLUMN IS FAIRLY
MOIST BELOW 700 MB.

THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WEAK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT AS
CONVECTION FIRES EAST OF NJ. THUS WEAK FORCING BUT COUPLED WITH
INSTABILITY ALOFT AND PWATS CLIMBING TO +1 STD ABOVE CLIMO MAY
YIELD SOME TROPICAL DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT ACROSS CT AND INTO WEST-
CENTRAL MA AFTER 06Z. AFTER 12Z SHOWERS MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO RI
AND EASTERN MA. 12Z ECMWF AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP13
APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL THRU 01Z.
THEREFORE WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY AND ALSO MATCHES UP WELL WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

RAP13 HAS STORM TOTAL QPF UP TO 0.60 INCHES BY 18Z ACROSS CT AND
WEST-CENTRAL MA. OBVIOUSLY LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE TROPICAL CONNECTION AND WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT
MAY YIELD EMBEDDED TSTMS. EARLIER DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

A SHORTWAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE A 30 TO 40 KNOT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...TRANSPORTING DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A BURST OF
INSTABILITY AND A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST.  TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 6Z AND 15Z. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE MARGINAL...BUT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH ELEVATED CAPE FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY
LOW SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS/0 TO 1 KM HELICITY AROUND 100...AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE....CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST SUNDAY MORNING.  AGAIN THOUGH...THAT APPEARS TO BE A
VERY LOW PROBABILITY BUT SOMETHING WILL NEED TO WATCH.

THE STEADY AND HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GIVEN LIMITED
BAROCLINICITY/FRONTOGENESIS.  HOWEVER...IT STILL MAY SCRAPE THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR A TIME WHERE PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES
SO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

IN A NUTSHELL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING.  WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A SOAKING
RAIN BY ANY MEANS...BUT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST IF THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
CAN MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTHWEST.  OTHERWISE...MOST OF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY WITH JUST A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND THE
REGION...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER.

LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE.  LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S AND IT WILL FEEL A BIT
HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S!

LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.  A LOT OF
MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ALONG THE FRONT.  THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE SUN AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT.  MOST
OF SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY IN A GIVEN LOCATION.  LOW TEMPS WILL
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

*LOW CHANCE SHOWERS MON. THEN DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK
*COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK...MODERATING BY WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TROUGH DRAPED OVER
THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AS TIME GOES ON AND THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES NORTH INTO
CANADA. GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLE NAO AND AO TELECONNECTION
FORECASTS TO STAY IN THE POSITIVE PHASES. THE PNA LOOKS TO START
POSITIVE AND GO NEUTRAL AS TIME GOES ON...BUT THEN MODELS DIVERGE IN
THEIR OUTPUTS AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALLOWS FOR SOME SPREAD.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...THE MORNING BEGINS WITH A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT IS
FIGHTING WITH SOME DRY MIDLEVELS ALLOWING SOME OF THE PRECIP TO DRY
UP. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG MIXING OCCURS UP
TO AROUND 850 MB WHERE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS EXIST SO GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 850 MB TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE
AROUND 10C SO MID TO UPPER 70S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE.
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS WON/T GET THAT HIGH AS THE FRONT CROSS THROUGH
TOO EARLY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG 1035 MB
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES INTO THE REGION WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. DRY
WEATHER WILL ALSO PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THINK THE
ECMWF MAY HAVE IT TOO FAR NORTH WHILE THE 6Z GFS HAS IT FURTHER
SOUTH. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS JET WILL GIVE US WHEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVE NORTH FROM MOISTURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST US. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE UPPER JET UP NORTH SO BETTER
CHANCE FOR COOLING TEMPS AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
DRY SPELL WE/VE BEEN HAVING. IN PERIODS OF ONSHORE WINDS...FOG COULD
OCCUR.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

945 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 00Z TAFS. SOME HEAVY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND WEST-CENTRAL MA. AFTER 12Z
SHOWERS MAY BLEED INTO RI AND EASTERN MA. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

===================================================================

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 04Z.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO
OVER SPREAD THE REGION VERY LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY WORK INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  HOWEVER...LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS MAY HANG TOUGH THOUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG PATCHES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 04Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE AFTER 04Z.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD

VFR THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR ANY SHOWERS ON MONDAY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE MVFR COULD BE NEEDED. WINDS AROUND 10KTS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 OR 25KTS IN PLACES. THESE
WINDS DIE OFF ON TUESDAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT 5
FOOT SEAS COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP WAVES JUST BELOW FOR NOW.  LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL AND PERHAPS THE NEED FOR A SHORT
FUSED SCA ADVISORY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...SWELL FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCA SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.  SINCE ITS MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL DEFER THE ISSUANCE
OF HEADLINES TO THE NEXT SHIFT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT THE WATERS THIS MORNING.  THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

SEAS FROM 5 TO 8FT ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS...AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD FOR THE SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/99
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/99
MARINE...FRANK/99



000
FXUS61 KBOX 210149
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
949 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE EXPECTED
VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS DRY AND RATHER
MILD BY SUN AFTERNOON.  A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK.  TEMPS START OFF COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODERATE TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

945 PM UPDATE...

TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD BETWEEN WESTERN ATLC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES.
SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES OFF THE MID
ATLC ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE MID 70S! 00Z OBSERVED UPPER
AIR SOUNDING FROM OKX ON LONG ISLAND INDICATES COLUMN IS FAIRLY
MOIST BELOW 700 MB.

THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WEAK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT AS
CONVECTION FIRES EAST OF NJ. THUS WEAK FORCING BUT COUPLED WITH
INSTABILITY ALOFT AND PWATS CLIMBING TO +1 STD ABOVE CLIMO MAY
YIELD SOME TROPICAL DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT ACROSS CT AND INTO WEST-
CENTRAL MA AFTER 06Z. AFTER 12Z SHOWERS MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO RI
AND EASTERN MA. 12Z ECMWF AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP13
APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL THRU 01Z.
THEREFORE WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY AND ALSO MATCHES UP WELL WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

RAP13 HAS STORM TOTAL QPF UP TO 0.60 INCHES BY 18Z ACROSS CT AND
WEST-CENTRAL MA. OBVIOUSLY LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE TROPICAL CONNECTION AND WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT
MAY YIELD EMBEDDED TSTMS. EARLIER DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

A SHORTWAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE A 30 TO 40 KNOT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...TRANSPORTING DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A BURST OF
INSTABILITY AND A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST.  TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 6Z AND 15Z. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE MARGINAL...BUT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH ELEVATED CAPE FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY
LOW SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS/0 TO 1 KM HELICITY AROUND 100...AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE....CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST SUNDAY MORNING.  AGAIN THOUGH...THAT APPEARS TO BE A
VERY LOW PROBABILITY BUT SOMETHING WILL NEED TO WATCH.

THE STEADY AND HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GIVEN LIMITED
BAROCLINICITY/FRONTOGENESIS.  HOWEVER...IT STILL MAY SCRAPE THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR A TIME WHERE PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES
SO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

IN A NUTSHELL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING.  WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A SOAKING
RAIN BY ANY MEANS...BUT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST IF THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
CAN MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTHWEST.  OTHERWISE...MOST OF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY WITH JUST A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND THE
REGION...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER.

LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE.  LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S AND IT WILL FEEL A BIT
HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S!

LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.  A LOT OF
MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ALONG THE FRONT.  THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE SUN AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT.  MOST
OF SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY IN A GIVEN LOCATION.  LOW TEMPS WILL
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

*LOW CHANCE SHOWERS MON. THEN DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK
*COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK...MODERATING BY WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TROUGH DRAPED OVER
THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AS TIME GOES ON AND THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES NORTH INTO
CANADA. GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLE NAO AND AO TELECONNECTION
FORECASTS TO STAY IN THE POSITIVE PHASES. THE PNA LOOKS TO START
POSITIVE AND GO NEUTRAL AS TIME GOES ON...BUT THEN MODELS DIVERGE IN
THEIR OUTPUTS AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALLOWS FOR SOME SPREAD.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...THE MORNING BEGINS WITH A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT IS
FIGHTING WITH SOME DRY MIDLEVELS ALLOWING SOME OF THE PRECIP TO DRY
UP. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG MIXING OCCURS UP
TO AROUND 850 MB WHERE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS EXIST SO GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 850 MB TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE
AROUND 10C SO MID TO UPPER 70S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE.
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS WON/T GET THAT HIGH AS THE FRONT CROSS THROUGH
TOO EARLY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG 1035 MB
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES INTO THE REGION WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. DRY
WEATHER WILL ALSO PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THINK THE
ECMWF MAY HAVE IT TOO FAR NORTH WHILE THE 6Z GFS HAS IT FURTHER
SOUTH. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS JET WILL GIVE US WHEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVE NORTH FROM MOISTURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST US. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE UPPER JET UP NORTH SO BETTER
CHANCE FOR COOLING TEMPS AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
DRY SPELL WE/VE BEEN HAVING. IN PERIODS OF ONSHORE WINDS...FOG COULD
OCCUR.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

945 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 00Z TAFS. SOME HEAVY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND WEST-CENTRAL MA. AFTER 12Z
SHOWERS MAY BLEED INTO RI AND EASTERN MA. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

===================================================================

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 04Z.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO
OVER SPREAD THE REGION VERY LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY WORK INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  HOWEVER...LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS MAY HANG TOUGH THOUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG PATCHES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 04Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE AFTER 04Z.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD

VFR THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR ANY SHOWERS ON MONDAY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE MVFR COULD BE NEEDED. WINDS AROUND 10KTS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 OR 25KTS IN PLACES. THESE
WINDS DIE OFF ON TUESDAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT 5
FOOT SEAS COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP WAVES JUST BELOW FOR NOW.  LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL AND PERHAPS THE NEED FOR A SHORT
FUSED SCA ADVISORY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...SWELL FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCA SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.  SINCE ITS MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL DEFER THE ISSUANCE
OF HEADLINES TO THE NEXT SHIFT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT THE WATERS THIS MORNING.  THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

SEAS FROM 5 TO 8FT ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS...AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD FOR THE SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/99
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/99
MARINE...FRANK/99




000
FXUS61 KGYX 202306
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
706 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. THIS EVENING SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT DRY. WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS
STRENGTHENS AS K-INDICES RISE AND SHOWALTER INDICES DROP TO AROUND
ZERO. SHOWERS ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH AN ISOLD RUMBLE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

PREVIOUSLY...

12Z SOUNDING NOTED SW FLOW AND A SATURATED LAYER FROM ABOUT 925 TO
800MB THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW THIS LAYER CONTINUING
TONIGHT AS WAA CONTINUES AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR PUSHES INTO THE
REGION. EXPECTING CLOUD COVER AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...WITH ALMOST ALL AREAS STAYING IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD ALSO HELP IN THE FORMATION OF FOG OVER
THE WATERS AND ALONG COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING THE WAVE/LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE WAVE/LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TOMORROW AND
PASS VERY CLOSE TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL NOT SUPPLY MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL TO THE AREA BUT
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL BE NOTED AS PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
THE 1.7 RANGE TOMORROW...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THIS MOISTURE COMBINING WITH A WEAK LEADING
SHORT WAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAYBE BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE TO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL KICK OFF SCT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THE INSTABILITY IS LOOKING MODEST AT BEST. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A STORM WILL BE IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...WHERE
BREAKS OF SUN AND HEATING IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AND INTO EASTERN MAINE
MONDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT OVER THE INTERIOR AND
ALONG THE COAST AS DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY JUST
REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD SEE A
DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DUE TO THIS WITH
UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO DIP DOWN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND IS ENTRENCHED ALONG THE GREEN AND WHITE MOUNTAIN
BASINS. THERE WILL BE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 30S BUT THE
MAJORITY OF SITES SHOULD HOVER IN THE MID 30S. THIS IS PARTLY DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE JETSTREAK AND SOME LINGERING MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S. ANOTHER REINFORCING COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY...BUT THE SOURCE IS WELL NORTH AND WILL RESULT IN
LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS PLEASANT AND PRECIPITATION FREE
AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRANSITION INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND QUICKLY
DROPPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
FOG AND LOW STRATUS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE IFR
CONDITIONS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CEILINGS AND
VIS SHOULD THEN INCREASE TO MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS MONDAY
MORNING..MAINLY IN MOUNTAIN TERMINALS IN SHOWERS AND FOG. FOG WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN TERMINALS TUESDAY MORNING. VFR WILL
PREVAIL THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS AROUND TO 25
KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FT ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A SCA FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 202306
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
706 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. THIS EVENING SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT DRY. WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS
STRENGTHENS AS K-INDICES RISE AND SHOWALTER INDICES DROP TO AROUND
ZERO. SHOWERS ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH AN ISOLD RUMBLE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

PREVIOUSLY...

12Z SOUNDING NOTED SW FLOW AND A SATURATED LAYER FROM ABOUT 925 TO
800MB THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW THIS LAYER CONTINUING
TONIGHT AS WAA CONTINUES AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR PUSHES INTO THE
REGION. EXPECTING CLOUD COVER AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...WITH ALMOST ALL AREAS STAYING IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD ALSO HELP IN THE FORMATION OF FOG OVER
THE WATERS AND ALONG COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING THE WAVE/LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE WAVE/LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TOMORROW AND
PASS VERY CLOSE TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL NOT SUPPLY MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL TO THE AREA BUT
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL BE NOTED AS PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
THE 1.7 RANGE TOMORROW...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THIS MOISTURE COMBINING WITH A WEAK LEADING
SHORT WAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAYBE BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE TO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL KICK OFF SCT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THE INSTABILITY IS LOOKING MODEST AT BEST. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A STORM WILL BE IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...WHERE
BREAKS OF SUN AND HEATING IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AND INTO EASTERN MAINE
MONDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT OVER THE INTERIOR AND
ALONG THE COAST AS DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY JUST
REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD SEE A
DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DUE TO THIS WITH
UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO DIP DOWN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND IS ENTRENCHED ALONG THE GREEN AND WHITE MOUNTAIN
BASINS. THERE WILL BE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 30S BUT THE
MAJORITY OF SITES SHOULD HOVER IN THE MID 30S. THIS IS PARTLY DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE JETSTREAK AND SOME LINGERING MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S. ANOTHER REINFORCING COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY...BUT THE SOURCE IS WELL NORTH AND WILL RESULT IN
LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS PLEASANT AND PRECIPITATION FREE
AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRANSITION INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND QUICKLY
DROPPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
FOG AND LOW STRATUS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE IFR
CONDITIONS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CEILINGS AND
VIS SHOULD THEN INCREASE TO MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS MONDAY
MORNING..MAINLY IN MOUNTAIN TERMINALS IN SHOWERS AND FOG. FOG WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN TERMINALS TUESDAY MORNING. VFR WILL
PREVAIL THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS AROUND TO 25
KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FT ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A SCA FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE




000
FXUS61 KBOX 202301
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
701 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE EXPECTED
VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS DRY AND RATHER
MILD BY SUN AFTERNOON.  A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK.  TEMPS START OFF COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODERATE TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
7 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

THIS EVENING WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S THIS
EVENING...AS SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT DECOUPLE WITH A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL JET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

A SHORTWAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE A 30 TO 40 KNOT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...TRANSPORTING DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A BURST OF
INSTABILITY AND A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST.  TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 6Z AND 15Z. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE MARGINAL...BUT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH ELEVATED CAPE FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY
LOW SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS/0 TO 1 KM HELICITY AROUND 100...AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE....CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST SUNDAY MORNING.  AGAIN THOUGH...THAT APPEARS TO BE A
VERY LOW PROBABILITY BUT SOMETHING WILL NEED TO WATCH.

THE STEADY AND HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GIVEN LIMITED
BAROCLINICITY/FRONTOGENESIS.  HOWEVER...IT STILL MAY SCRAPE THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR A TIME WHERE PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES
SO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

IN A NUTSHELL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING.  WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A SOAKING
RAIN BY ANY MEANS...BUT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST IF THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
CAN MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTHWEST.  OTHERWISE...MOST OF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY WITH JUST A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND THE
REGION...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER.

LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE.  LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S AND IT WILL FEEL A BIT
HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S!

LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.  A LOT OF
MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ALONG THE FRONT.  THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE SUN AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT.  MOST
OF SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY IN A GIVEN LOCATION.  LOW TEMPS WILL
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

*LOW CHANCE SHOWERS MON. THEN DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK
*COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK...MODERATING BY WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TROUGH DRAPED OVER
THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AS TIME GOES ON AND THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES NORTH INTO
CANADA. GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLE NAO AND AO TELECONNECTION
FORECASTS TO STAY IN THE POSITIVE PHASES. THE PNA LOOKS TO START
POSITIVE AND GO NEUTRAL AS TIME GOES ON...BUT THEN MODELS DIVERGE IN
THEIR OUTPUTS AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALLOWS FOR SOME SPREAD.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...THE MORNING BEGINS WITH A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT IS
FIGHTING WITH SOME DRY MIDLEVELS ALLOWING SOME OF THE PRECIP TO DRY
UP. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG MIXING OCCURS UP
TO AROUND 850 MB WHERE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS EXIST SO GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 850 MB TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE
AROUND 10C SO MID TO UPPER 70S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE.
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS WON/T GET THAT HIGH AS THE FRONT CROSS THROUGH
TOO EARLY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG 1035 MB
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES INTO THE REGION WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. DRY
WEATHER WILL ALSO PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THINK THE
ECMWF MAY HAVE IT TOO FAR NORTH WHILE THE 6Z GFS HAS IT FURTHER
SOUTH. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS JET WILL GIVE US WHEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVE NORTH FROM MOISTURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST US. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE UPPER JET UP NORTH SO BETTER
CHANCE FOR COOLING TEMPS AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
DRY SPELL WE/VE BEEN HAVING. IN PERIODS OF ONSHORE WINDS...FOG COULD
OCCUR.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 04Z.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO
OVER SPREAD THE REGION VERY LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY WORK INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  HOWEVER...LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS MAY HANG TOUGH THOUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG PATCHES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 04Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE AFTER 04Z.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD

VFR THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR ANY SHOWERS ON MONDAY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE MVFR COULD BE NEEDED. WINDS AROUND 10KTS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 OR 25KTS IN PLACES. THESE
WINDS DIE OFF ON TUESDAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT 5
FOOT SEAS COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP WAVES JUST BELOW FOR NOW.  LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL AND PERHAPS THE NEED FOR A SHORT
FUSED SCA ADVISORY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...SWELL FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCA SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.  SINCE ITS MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL DEFER THE ISSUANCE
OF HEADLINES TO THE NEXT SHIFT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT THE WATERS THIS MORNING.  THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

SEAS FROM 5 TO 8FT ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS...AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD FOR THE SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/99
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FRANK/99
MARINE...FRANK/99



000
FXUS61 KBOX 202301
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
701 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE EXPECTED
VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS DRY AND RATHER
MILD BY SUN AFTERNOON.  A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK.  TEMPS START OFF COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODERATE TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
7 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

THIS EVENING WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S THIS
EVENING...AS SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT DECOUPLE WITH A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL JET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

A SHORTWAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE A 30 TO 40 KNOT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...TRANSPORTING DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A BURST OF
INSTABILITY AND A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST.  TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 6Z AND 15Z. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE MARGINAL...BUT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH ELEVATED CAPE FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY
LOW SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS/0 TO 1 KM HELICITY AROUND 100...AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE....CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST SUNDAY MORNING.  AGAIN THOUGH...THAT APPEARS TO BE A
VERY LOW PROBABILITY BUT SOMETHING WILL NEED TO WATCH.

THE STEADY AND HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GIVEN LIMITED
BAROCLINICITY/FRONTOGENESIS.  HOWEVER...IT STILL MAY SCRAPE THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR A TIME WHERE PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES
SO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

IN A NUTSHELL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING.  WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A SOAKING
RAIN BY ANY MEANS...BUT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST IF THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
CAN MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTHWEST.  OTHERWISE...MOST OF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY WITH JUST A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND THE
REGION...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER.

LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE.  LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S AND IT WILL FEEL A BIT
HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S!

LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.  A LOT OF
MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ALONG THE FRONT.  THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE SUN AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT.  MOST
OF SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY IN A GIVEN LOCATION.  LOW TEMPS WILL
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

*LOW CHANCE SHOWERS MON. THEN DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK
*COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK...MODERATING BY WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TROUGH DRAPED OVER
THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AS TIME GOES ON AND THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES NORTH INTO
CANADA. GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLE NAO AND AO TELECONNECTION
FORECASTS TO STAY IN THE POSITIVE PHASES. THE PNA LOOKS TO START
POSITIVE AND GO NEUTRAL AS TIME GOES ON...BUT THEN MODELS DIVERGE IN
THEIR OUTPUTS AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALLOWS FOR SOME SPREAD.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...THE MORNING BEGINS WITH A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT IS
FIGHTING WITH SOME DRY MIDLEVELS ALLOWING SOME OF THE PRECIP TO DRY
UP. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG MIXING OCCURS UP
TO AROUND 850 MB WHERE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS EXIST SO GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 850 MB TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE
AROUND 10C SO MID TO UPPER 70S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE.
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS WON/T GET THAT HIGH AS THE FRONT CROSS THROUGH
TOO EARLY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG 1035 MB
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES INTO THE REGION WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. DRY
WEATHER WILL ALSO PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THINK THE
ECMWF MAY HAVE IT TOO FAR NORTH WHILE THE 6Z GFS HAS IT FURTHER
SOUTH. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS JET WILL GIVE US WHEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVE NORTH FROM MOISTURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST US. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE UPPER JET UP NORTH SO BETTER
CHANCE FOR COOLING TEMPS AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
DRY SPELL WE/VE BEEN HAVING. IN PERIODS OF ONSHORE WINDS...FOG COULD
OCCUR.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 04Z.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO
OVER SPREAD THE REGION VERY LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY WORK INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  HOWEVER...LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS MAY HANG TOUGH THOUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG PATCHES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 04Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE AFTER 04Z.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD

VFR THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR ANY SHOWERS ON MONDAY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE MVFR COULD BE NEEDED. WINDS AROUND 10KTS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 OR 25KTS IN PLACES. THESE
WINDS DIE OFF ON TUESDAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT 5
FOOT SEAS COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP WAVES JUST BELOW FOR NOW.  LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL AND PERHAPS THE NEED FOR A SHORT
FUSED SCA ADVISORY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...SWELL FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCA SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.  SINCE ITS MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL DEFER THE ISSUANCE
OF HEADLINES TO THE NEXT SHIFT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT THE WATERS THIS MORNING.  THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

SEAS FROM 5 TO 8FT ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS...AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD FOR THE SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/99
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FRANK/99
MARINE...FRANK/99




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