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000
FXUS61 KBOX 291408
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1007 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT
AS WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AND PROBABLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL BE MAINLY DRY...CAN/T RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

***A HOT AFTERNOON ON TAP FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND***

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL RESULT IN A HOT
AFTERNOON.  HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S...EXCEPT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL KEEP IT A BIT COOLER.  MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PROBABLY BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP.  A
VERY ISOLATED SPOT SHOWER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT IF ANYTHING WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD BE EXTREMELY
ISOLATED.  THEREFORE...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

WE OPTED TO CANCEL THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD
METRO AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  ENOUGH WESTERLY WINDS IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.
SO DESPITE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S...HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY
FALL 4 OR 5 DEGREES SHORT OF CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY WEATHER WILL RESUME TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG ESP FOR THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHEST. OTHERWISE A MUGGY AND MILD NIGHT WILL BE
ON TAP WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 70S.

TOMORROW...

DESCENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON THURSDAY PUSHING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WARM...HUMID AIRMASS WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING FRONT. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TO HAVE 70+
DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER...IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S. HEAT INDICES WILL STILL BE HIGH...REACHING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE FRONT. IN FACT
MOST MODELS HAVE SPED THIS SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6+ HOURS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AROUND 18Z AND
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO A SEVERE
STORM IS POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH MARGINAL
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHEAR VALUES LOOK TO BE ALONG OR BEHIND THE
FRONT...WHICH COULD LIMIT STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL. BIGGEST THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS LEADING TO NUISANCE
FLOODING AS PWAT VALUES ARE ABOUT 2+ INCHES. GUSTY WINDS/LOCALIZED
DOWNBURST ALSO CANNOT BE RULE OUT DUE TO THE INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IS ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
  AND THUNDERSTORMS THU NIGHT

* NOT AS WARM AND HUMID FRIDAY AND BEYOND

* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

IMPRESSIVE AND ANOMALOUS VORTEX CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AS
SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE THIS PERIOD...AS IT EVOLVES INTO A MUCH BROADER CIRCULATION
OVER JAMES AND HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTS
IN A BROAD MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA SOUTHWARD BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
LASTING THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN GOOD MULTI
MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THIS PERIOD...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
WHILE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS MARGINAL IN THE PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...PWATS CLIMB TO 2+ INCHES /+2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO/. THUS GREATER RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS DOESN/T
ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY.

FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY...

TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARRIVES
FRIDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.  SO BEST WORDING WOULD BE MANY
HOURS OF DRY WEATHER THIS PERIOD BUT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TODAY INTO TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT DROPPING CONDITIONS TO IFR.

THURSDAY...VFR TO START CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR IN -SHRA/TSRA
BETWEEN 18-00Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SEA BREEZE CONTINUES INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
VERY LOW RISK FOR AN AFTERNOON T-STORM SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT HAS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN PLACE. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL INCREASE
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY NEAR 25 KTS.
PERSISENT SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE SEAS BETWEEN 4-6 FEET. A
SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE. ROUGH SEAS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS WITH WIND WAVES OF 3 TO 6
FT POSSIBLE. VSBY REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE WITH
WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS FROM THU
NIGHT LINGER FRI BUT SLOWLY DIMINISH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 7/29:

BOSTON97 ON 1933 & 1931

PROVIDENCE95 ON 2002 & 1949

BRADLEY96 ON 1933

WORCESTER94 ON 1892

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...STAFF



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000
FXUS61 KGYX 291356
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
956 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND...A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

940 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT MESONET IN 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS. I ALSO ADJUSTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR
TWO IN SOME AREAS BASED ON THE 12Z KGYX RAOB. THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
REMAINS ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND IS SITUATED FROM
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. THAT SHOULD PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. REWORKING THE 12Z KGYX
RAOB YIELDS CAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN
ANY CELLS THAT DO DEVELOP.

PREV DISC...
.UPDATE...
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS HAVE DRIED UP AND HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG STILL AROUND WITH MORE
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION DIES DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND TEMPERATURES COOL OFF
SOMEWHAT BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
ARRIVES AHEAD OF DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHING. ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY
DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE.

THE SET UP FOR THURSDAY`S THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS MORE POTENT WITH
BETTER KINEMATICS AND OVERALL FORCING THAN TODAY. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE COULD HAVE EARLY
INITIATION AND STORM MODE WILL BE SUPERCELLULAR. BESIDES HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLASH FLOODING... EHI VALUES AND OTHER SPC
INDICES ARE HIGH FOR ROTATION AND SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS IN PARTS
OF MAINE... INDICATING PLENTY OF SHEAR FOR ROTATION. THIS IS
CONCERNING AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE HAD A TORNADO
SOMEWHERE IN FRANKLIN OR SOMERSET COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY PERIOD
APPEARS TO BE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BOARDER WEST OF
THE GREAT LAKES.  THERE IS GOOD DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
REINVIGORATE LONGWAVE TROUGHING NEAR HUDSON BAY.  THIS PATTERN IS
NOT ALL THAT ABNORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WHILE 500 HPA
HEIGHTS WILL BE A TAD BELOW NORMAL...T8S WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
GIVEN OUR LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS DEVELOPING
LONGWAVE TROUGHING...WE WILL HAVE ACCESS TO ROBUST WINDS ALOFT
WITH THE CORE OF THE JET ALOFT NEARBY...WITH NUMEROUS WEAK
SHORTWAVES IN THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. OVERALL...THIS PORTENDS TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH OCCASIONAL
BOUTS OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES IN THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. CERTAINLY NO WASHOUTS EXPECTED GIVEN THIS PATTERN...BUT
WITH DECENT WINDS ALOFT IN PLAY...CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

DETAILS:

DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...THUS ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO START THE PERIOD
WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST.  THIS DRIER REGIME SHOULD ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS
TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH PERHAPS ONE OR TWO SHOWERS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLD POOL AT H5.

SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES ON SATURDAY...WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AGAIN GREATEST IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST SOMEWHAT WITH THE
IMPROVED FORCING.  BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE...THERE IS MODEST AGREEMENT
ON QUIETER CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY SUNDAY IN A BROADLY SUBSIDENT
REGIME WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVERHEAD. THUS...MUCH LIKE
FRIDAY...WILL RESTRICT ANY LOW POPS TO THE MOUNTAINS.

MORE OF THE SAME AS WE REACH MONDAY-TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
DECREASING AGREEMENT ON SHORTWAVE TIMING AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MEMBERS.  THE RESULT...UNFORTUNATELY...IS THAT
ISOLATED/CHANCE POPS WILL BE WARRANTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST /BOTH DUE TO TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT AND PROXIMITY TO MID-UPPER
LEVEL FORCING/.

TEMPERATURES:  TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS FRIDAY...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE ASSISTANCE UNDER WESTERLY WINDS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSE
TO...OR JUST A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...WITH T8S NEARLY STEADY IN
THE LOW TO MID TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRI/...AREAS OF MVFR OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS
AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 09 AND 12Z TODAY IN PLACES WHICH
RECEIVED RAINFALL EARLIER. VFR PREVAILING TODAY WITH LCL MVFR
PSBL AFT 18Z IN WIDELY SCT SHRA AND TSRA VCNTY OF KAUG AND KRKD.
AREAS MVFR AFT 00Z THU IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN
08 AND 12Z THU.

LONG TERM...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH CONTINUED ISOLATED-SCATTERED
MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS GIVING WAY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE SATURDAY /MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT LEB/HIE/ WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATING ELSEWHERE...AND FOR ALL LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WAVES AND WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH SCA CONDITIONS IN
THE FAR OUTER WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MARGINAL SCA WINDS/WAVES THURSDAY EVENING WILL SUBSIDE
AND REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 291356
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
956 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND...A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

940 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT MESONET IN 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS. I ALSO ADJUSTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR
TWO IN SOME AREAS BASED ON THE 12Z KGYX RAOB. THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
REMAINS ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND IS SITUATED FROM
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. THAT SHOULD PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. REWORKING THE 12Z KGYX
RAOB YIELDS CAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN
ANY CELLS THAT DO DEVELOP.

PREV DISC...
.UPDATE...
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS HAVE DRIED UP AND HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG STILL AROUND WITH MORE
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION DIES DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND TEMPERATURES COOL OFF
SOMEWHAT BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
ARRIVES AHEAD OF DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHING. ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY
DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE.

THE SET UP FOR THURSDAY`S THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS MORE POTENT WITH
BETTER KINEMATICS AND OVERALL FORCING THAN TODAY. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE COULD HAVE EARLY
INITIATION AND STORM MODE WILL BE SUPERCELLULAR. BESIDES HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLASH FLOODING... EHI VALUES AND OTHER SPC
INDICES ARE HIGH FOR ROTATION AND SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS IN PARTS
OF MAINE... INDICATING PLENTY OF SHEAR FOR ROTATION. THIS IS
CONCERNING AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE HAD A TORNADO
SOMEWHERE IN FRANKLIN OR SOMERSET COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY PERIOD
APPEARS TO BE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BOARDER WEST OF
THE GREAT LAKES.  THERE IS GOOD DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
REINVIGORATE LONGWAVE TROUGHING NEAR HUDSON BAY.  THIS PATTERN IS
NOT ALL THAT ABNORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WHILE 500 HPA
HEIGHTS WILL BE A TAD BELOW NORMAL...T8S WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
GIVEN OUR LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS DEVELOPING
LONGWAVE TROUGHING...WE WILL HAVE ACCESS TO ROBUST WINDS ALOFT
WITH THE CORE OF THE JET ALOFT NEARBY...WITH NUMEROUS WEAK
SHORTWAVES IN THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. OVERALL...THIS PORTENDS TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH OCCASIONAL
BOUTS OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES IN THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. CERTAINLY NO WASHOUTS EXPECTED GIVEN THIS PATTERN...BUT
WITH DECENT WINDS ALOFT IN PLAY...CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

DETAILS:

DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...THUS ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO START THE PERIOD
WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST.  THIS DRIER REGIME SHOULD ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS
TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH PERHAPS ONE OR TWO SHOWERS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLD POOL AT H5.

SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES ON SATURDAY...WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AGAIN GREATEST IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST SOMEWHAT WITH THE
IMPROVED FORCING.  BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE...THERE IS MODEST AGREEMENT
ON QUIETER CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY SUNDAY IN A BROADLY SUBSIDENT
REGIME WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVERHEAD. THUS...MUCH LIKE
FRIDAY...WILL RESTRICT ANY LOW POPS TO THE MOUNTAINS.

MORE OF THE SAME AS WE REACH MONDAY-TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
DECREASING AGREEMENT ON SHORTWAVE TIMING AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MEMBERS.  THE RESULT...UNFORTUNATELY...IS THAT
ISOLATED/CHANCE POPS WILL BE WARRANTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST /BOTH DUE TO TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT AND PROXIMITY TO MID-UPPER
LEVEL FORCING/.

TEMPERATURES:  TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS FRIDAY...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE ASSISTANCE UNDER WESTERLY WINDS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSE
TO...OR JUST A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...WITH T8S NEARLY STEADY IN
THE LOW TO MID TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRI/...AREAS OF MVFR OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS
AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 09 AND 12Z TODAY IN PLACES WHICH
RECEIVED RAINFALL EARLIER. VFR PREVAILING TODAY WITH LCL MVFR
PSBL AFT 18Z IN WIDELY SCT SHRA AND TSRA VCNTY OF KAUG AND KRKD.
AREAS MVFR AFT 00Z THU IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN
08 AND 12Z THU.

LONG TERM...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH CONTINUED ISOLATED-SCATTERED
MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS GIVING WAY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE SATURDAY /MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT LEB/HIE/ WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATING ELSEWHERE...AND FOR ALL LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WAVES AND WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH SCA CONDITIONS IN
THE FAR OUTER WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MARGINAL SCA WINDS/WAVES THURSDAY EVENING WILL SUBSIDE
AND REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 291356
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
956 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND...A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

940 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT MESONET IN 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS. I ALSO ADJUSTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR
TWO IN SOME AREAS BASED ON THE 12Z KGYX RAOB. THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
REMAINS ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND IS SITUATED FROM
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. THAT SHOULD PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. REWORKING THE 12Z KGYX
RAOB YIELDS CAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN
ANY CELLS THAT DO DEVELOP.

PREV DISC...
.UPDATE...
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS HAVE DRIED UP AND HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG STILL AROUND WITH MORE
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION DIES DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND TEMPERATURES COOL OFF
SOMEWHAT BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
ARRIVES AHEAD OF DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHING. ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY
DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE.

THE SET UP FOR THURSDAY`S THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS MORE POTENT WITH
BETTER KINEMATICS AND OVERALL FORCING THAN TODAY. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE COULD HAVE EARLY
INITIATION AND STORM MODE WILL BE SUPERCELLULAR. BESIDES HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLASH FLOODING... EHI VALUES AND OTHER SPC
INDICES ARE HIGH FOR ROTATION AND SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS IN PARTS
OF MAINE... INDICATING PLENTY OF SHEAR FOR ROTATION. THIS IS
CONCERNING AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE HAD A TORNADO
SOMEWHERE IN FRANKLIN OR SOMERSET COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY PERIOD
APPEARS TO BE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BOARDER WEST OF
THE GREAT LAKES.  THERE IS GOOD DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
REINVIGORATE LONGWAVE TROUGHING NEAR HUDSON BAY.  THIS PATTERN IS
NOT ALL THAT ABNORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WHILE 500 HPA
HEIGHTS WILL BE A TAD BELOW NORMAL...T8S WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
GIVEN OUR LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS DEVELOPING
LONGWAVE TROUGHING...WE WILL HAVE ACCESS TO ROBUST WINDS ALOFT
WITH THE CORE OF THE JET ALOFT NEARBY...WITH NUMEROUS WEAK
SHORTWAVES IN THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. OVERALL...THIS PORTENDS TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH OCCASIONAL
BOUTS OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES IN THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. CERTAINLY NO WASHOUTS EXPECTED GIVEN THIS PATTERN...BUT
WITH DECENT WINDS ALOFT IN PLAY...CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

DETAILS:

DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...THUS ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO START THE PERIOD
WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST.  THIS DRIER REGIME SHOULD ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS
TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH PERHAPS ONE OR TWO SHOWERS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLD POOL AT H5.

SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES ON SATURDAY...WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AGAIN GREATEST IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST SOMEWHAT WITH THE
IMPROVED FORCING.  BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE...THERE IS MODEST AGREEMENT
ON QUIETER CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY SUNDAY IN A BROADLY SUBSIDENT
REGIME WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVERHEAD. THUS...MUCH LIKE
FRIDAY...WILL RESTRICT ANY LOW POPS TO THE MOUNTAINS.

MORE OF THE SAME AS WE REACH MONDAY-TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
DECREASING AGREEMENT ON SHORTWAVE TIMING AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MEMBERS.  THE RESULT...UNFORTUNATELY...IS THAT
ISOLATED/CHANCE POPS WILL BE WARRANTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST /BOTH DUE TO TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT AND PROXIMITY TO MID-UPPER
LEVEL FORCING/.

TEMPERATURES:  TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS FRIDAY...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE ASSISTANCE UNDER WESTERLY WINDS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSE
TO...OR JUST A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...WITH T8S NEARLY STEADY IN
THE LOW TO MID TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRI/...AREAS OF MVFR OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS
AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 09 AND 12Z TODAY IN PLACES WHICH
RECEIVED RAINFALL EARLIER. VFR PREVAILING TODAY WITH LCL MVFR
PSBL AFT 18Z IN WIDELY SCT SHRA AND TSRA VCNTY OF KAUG AND KRKD.
AREAS MVFR AFT 00Z THU IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN
08 AND 12Z THU.

LONG TERM...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH CONTINUED ISOLATED-SCATTERED
MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS GIVING WAY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE SATURDAY /MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT LEB/HIE/ WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATING ELSEWHERE...AND FOR ALL LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WAVES AND WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH SCA CONDITIONS IN
THE FAR OUTER WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MARGINAL SCA WINDS/WAVES THURSDAY EVENING WILL SUBSIDE
AND REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 291356
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
956 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND...A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

940 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT MESONET IN 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS. I ALSO ADJUSTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR
TWO IN SOME AREAS BASED ON THE 12Z KGYX RAOB. THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
REMAINS ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND IS SITUATED FROM
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. THAT SHOULD PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. REWORKING THE 12Z KGYX
RAOB YIELDS CAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN
ANY CELLS THAT DO DEVELOP.

PREV DISC...
.UPDATE...
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS HAVE DRIED UP AND HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG STILL AROUND WITH MORE
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION DIES DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND TEMPERATURES COOL OFF
SOMEWHAT BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
ARRIVES AHEAD OF DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHING. ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY
DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE.

THE SET UP FOR THURSDAY`S THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS MORE POTENT WITH
BETTER KINEMATICS AND OVERALL FORCING THAN TODAY. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE COULD HAVE EARLY
INITIATION AND STORM MODE WILL BE SUPERCELLULAR. BESIDES HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLASH FLOODING... EHI VALUES AND OTHER SPC
INDICES ARE HIGH FOR ROTATION AND SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS IN PARTS
OF MAINE... INDICATING PLENTY OF SHEAR FOR ROTATION. THIS IS
CONCERNING AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE HAD A TORNADO
SOMEWHERE IN FRANKLIN OR SOMERSET COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY PERIOD
APPEARS TO BE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BOARDER WEST OF
THE GREAT LAKES.  THERE IS GOOD DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
REINVIGORATE LONGWAVE TROUGHING NEAR HUDSON BAY.  THIS PATTERN IS
NOT ALL THAT ABNORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WHILE 500 HPA
HEIGHTS WILL BE A TAD BELOW NORMAL...T8S WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
GIVEN OUR LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS DEVELOPING
LONGWAVE TROUGHING...WE WILL HAVE ACCESS TO ROBUST WINDS ALOFT
WITH THE CORE OF THE JET ALOFT NEARBY...WITH NUMEROUS WEAK
SHORTWAVES IN THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. OVERALL...THIS PORTENDS TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH OCCASIONAL
BOUTS OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES IN THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. CERTAINLY NO WASHOUTS EXPECTED GIVEN THIS PATTERN...BUT
WITH DECENT WINDS ALOFT IN PLAY...CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

DETAILS:

DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...THUS ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO START THE PERIOD
WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST.  THIS DRIER REGIME SHOULD ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS
TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH PERHAPS ONE OR TWO SHOWERS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLD POOL AT H5.

SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES ON SATURDAY...WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AGAIN GREATEST IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST SOMEWHAT WITH THE
IMPROVED FORCING.  BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE...THERE IS MODEST AGREEMENT
ON QUIETER CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY SUNDAY IN A BROADLY SUBSIDENT
REGIME WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVERHEAD. THUS...MUCH LIKE
FRIDAY...WILL RESTRICT ANY LOW POPS TO THE MOUNTAINS.

MORE OF THE SAME AS WE REACH MONDAY-TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
DECREASING AGREEMENT ON SHORTWAVE TIMING AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MEMBERS.  THE RESULT...UNFORTUNATELY...IS THAT
ISOLATED/CHANCE POPS WILL BE WARRANTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST /BOTH DUE TO TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT AND PROXIMITY TO MID-UPPER
LEVEL FORCING/.

TEMPERATURES:  TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS FRIDAY...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE ASSISTANCE UNDER WESTERLY WINDS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSE
TO...OR JUST A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...WITH T8S NEARLY STEADY IN
THE LOW TO MID TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRI/...AREAS OF MVFR OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS
AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 09 AND 12Z TODAY IN PLACES WHICH
RECEIVED RAINFALL EARLIER. VFR PREVAILING TODAY WITH LCL MVFR
PSBL AFT 18Z IN WIDELY SCT SHRA AND TSRA VCNTY OF KAUG AND KRKD.
AREAS MVFR AFT 00Z THU IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN
08 AND 12Z THU.

LONG TERM...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH CONTINUED ISOLATED-SCATTERED
MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS GIVING WAY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE SATURDAY /MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT LEB/HIE/ WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATING ELSEWHERE...AND FOR ALL LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WAVES AND WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH SCA CONDITIONS IN
THE FAR OUTER WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MARGINAL SCA WINDS/WAVES THURSDAY EVENING WILL SUBSIDE
AND REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291106
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
706 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT
AS WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AND PROBABLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL BE MAINLY DRY...CAN/T RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

*** HEAT ADVISORY HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD METRO REGIONS TODAY ***

7AM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO DISCONTINUE THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE ISLANDS AS VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED. OFF TO A
VERY WARM START ALREADY WITH BOSTON AT 76...WORCESTER AND
PROVIDENCE 73. AS MENTIONED BELOW NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY WITH BDL
MOST VUNERABLE OF TYING OR BREAKING THE RECORD. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

====================================================================

TODAY...

MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CREST OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE MUGGY AIRMASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. 850MB TEMPS WARM TO 18-20C
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THEN YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THEN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
WITH UPPER 90S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID
60S AND WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
HOWEVER ACROSS THE CT VALLEY REGION...ESP IN THE
HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD METRO REGIONS HEAT INDICES WILL REACH BETWEEN
98 AND 101. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS REGION.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE DAY SHIFT MAY EXPAND IF TEMPS AND/OR
DEWPOINTS INCREASE MORE THAN FORECASTED.

ASIDE FROM THE HEAT...FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER TODAY IF LOCATIONS REACH THEIR
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER
BECAUSE IT WILL BE A ROGUE SHOWER HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY WEATHER WILL RESUME TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG ESP FOR THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHEST. OTHERWISE A MUGGY AND MILD NIGHT WILL BE
ON TAP WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 70S.

TOMORROW...

DESCENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON THURSDAY PUSHING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WARM...HUMID AIRMASS WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING FRONT. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TO HAVE 70+
DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER...IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S. HEAT INDICES WILL STILL BE HIGH...REACHING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE FRONT. IN FACT
MOST MODELS HAVE SPED THIS SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6+ HOURS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AROUND 18Z AND
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO A SEVERE
STORM IS POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH MARGINAL
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHEAR VALUES LOOK TO BE ALONG OR BEHIND THE
FRONT...WHICH COULD LIMIT STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL. BIGGEST THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS LEADING TO NUISANCE
FLOODING AS PWAT VALUES ARE ABOUT 2+ INCHES. GUSTY WINDS/LOCALIZED
DOWNBURST ALSO CANNOT BE RULE OUT DUE TO THE INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IS ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
  AND THUNDERSTORMS THU NIGHT

* NOT AS WARM AND HUMID FRIDAY AND BEYOND

* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

IMPRESSIVE AND ANOMALOUS VORTEX CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AS
SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE THIS PERIOD...AS IT EVOLVES INTO A MUCH BROADER CIRCULATION
OVER JAMES AND HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTS
IN A BROAD MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA SOUTHWARD BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
LASTING THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN GOOD MULTI
MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THIS PERIOD...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
WHILE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS MARGINAL IN THE PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...PWATS CLIMB TO 2+ INCHES /+2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO/. THUS GREATER RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS DOESN/T
ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY.

FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY...

TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARRIVES
FRIDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.  SO BEST WORDING WOULD BE MANY
HOURS OF DRY WEATHER THIS PERIOD BUT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z AND 09Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MANY SITES...HOWEVER
ANTICIPATE PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DROPPED SOME SITES DOWN TO IFR OR
EVEN LIFR. BEST LOCATIONS IS ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS AND SOUTH
COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S.

TODAY INTO TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT DROPPING CONDITIONS TO IFR.

THURSDAY...VFR TO START CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR IN -SHRA/TSRA
BETWEEN 18-00Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS BETWEEN
14-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
VERY LOW RISK FOR AN AFTERNOON T-STORM SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT HAS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN PLACE. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL INCREASE
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY NEAR 25 KTS.
PERSISENT SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE SEAS BETWEEN 4-6 FEET. A
SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE. ROUGH SEAS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS WITH WIND WAVES OF 3 TO 6
FT POSSIBLE. VSBY REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE WITH
WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS FROM THU
NIGHT LINGER FRI BUT SLOWLY DIMINISH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 7/29:

BOSTON97 ON 1933 & 1931

PROVIDENCE95 ON 2002 & 1949

BRADLEY96 ON 1933

WORCESTER94 ON 1892

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ002.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ011.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291106
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
706 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT
AS WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AND PROBABLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL BE MAINLY DRY...CAN/T RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

*** HEAT ADVISORY HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD METRO REGIONS TODAY ***

7AM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO DISCONTINUE THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE ISLANDS AS VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED. OFF TO A
VERY WARM START ALREADY WITH BOSTON AT 76...WORCESTER AND
PROVIDENCE 73. AS MENTIONED BELOW NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY WITH BDL
MOST VUNERABLE OF TYING OR BREAKING THE RECORD. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

====================================================================

TODAY...

MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CREST OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE MUGGY AIRMASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. 850MB TEMPS WARM TO 18-20C
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THEN YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THEN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
WITH UPPER 90S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID
60S AND WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
HOWEVER ACROSS THE CT VALLEY REGION...ESP IN THE
HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD METRO REGIONS HEAT INDICES WILL REACH BETWEEN
98 AND 101. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS REGION.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE DAY SHIFT MAY EXPAND IF TEMPS AND/OR
DEWPOINTS INCREASE MORE THAN FORECASTED.

ASIDE FROM THE HEAT...FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER TODAY IF LOCATIONS REACH THEIR
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER
BECAUSE IT WILL BE A ROGUE SHOWER HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY WEATHER WILL RESUME TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG ESP FOR THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHEST. OTHERWISE A MUGGY AND MILD NIGHT WILL BE
ON TAP WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 70S.

TOMORROW...

DESCENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON THURSDAY PUSHING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WARM...HUMID AIRMASS WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING FRONT. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TO HAVE 70+
DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER...IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S. HEAT INDICES WILL STILL BE HIGH...REACHING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE FRONT. IN FACT
MOST MODELS HAVE SPED THIS SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6+ HOURS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AROUND 18Z AND
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO A SEVERE
STORM IS POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH MARGINAL
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHEAR VALUES LOOK TO BE ALONG OR BEHIND THE
FRONT...WHICH COULD LIMIT STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL. BIGGEST THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS LEADING TO NUISANCE
FLOODING AS PWAT VALUES ARE ABOUT 2+ INCHES. GUSTY WINDS/LOCALIZED
DOWNBURST ALSO CANNOT BE RULE OUT DUE TO THE INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IS ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
  AND THUNDERSTORMS THU NIGHT

* NOT AS WARM AND HUMID FRIDAY AND BEYOND

* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

IMPRESSIVE AND ANOMALOUS VORTEX CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AS
SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE THIS PERIOD...AS IT EVOLVES INTO A MUCH BROADER CIRCULATION
OVER JAMES AND HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTS
IN A BROAD MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA SOUTHWARD BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
LASTING THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN GOOD MULTI
MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THIS PERIOD...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
WHILE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS MARGINAL IN THE PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...PWATS CLIMB TO 2+ INCHES /+2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO/. THUS GREATER RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS DOESN/T
ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY.

FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY...

TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARRIVES
FRIDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.  SO BEST WORDING WOULD BE MANY
HOURS OF DRY WEATHER THIS PERIOD BUT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z AND 09Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MANY SITES...HOWEVER
ANTICIPATE PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DROPPED SOME SITES DOWN TO IFR OR
EVEN LIFR. BEST LOCATIONS IS ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS AND SOUTH
COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S.

TODAY INTO TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT DROPPING CONDITIONS TO IFR.

THURSDAY...VFR TO START CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR IN -SHRA/TSRA
BETWEEN 18-00Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS BETWEEN
14-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
VERY LOW RISK FOR AN AFTERNOON T-STORM SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT HAS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN PLACE. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL INCREASE
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY NEAR 25 KTS.
PERSISENT SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE SEAS BETWEEN 4-6 FEET. A
SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE. ROUGH SEAS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS WITH WIND WAVES OF 3 TO 6
FT POSSIBLE. VSBY REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE WITH
WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS FROM THU
NIGHT LINGER FRI BUT SLOWLY DIMINISH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 7/29:

BOSTON97 ON 1933 & 1931

PROVIDENCE95 ON 2002 & 1949

BRADLEY96 ON 1933

WORCESTER94 ON 1892

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ002.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ011.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 291049 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
649 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND...A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS HAVE DRIED UP AND HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG STILL AROUND WITH MORE
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL DEBRIS MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND
OVER THE TOP OF RIDGING WHICH IS MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY. WE
ARE SEEING SOME OF THESE CLOUDS WORKING INTO NH AT THIS TIME. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH MUCH OF SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE
EASILY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 90S. ELSEWHERE WE SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST MID 80S. WE FALL SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BUT HIGH
HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE NORM MAY REQUIRE
SOME PEOPLE TO STAY INSIDE TODAY.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. SOME CONVECTION IS ALREADY
MOVING SE INTO CENTRAL NH... THIS EARLY MORNING RAIN WAS NOT
DEPICTED BY MOST MODELS. HOWEVER... MODELS HAVE BEEN PINGING THE
ROCKLAND/CAPITOL DISTRICT FOR A FEW DAYS NOW AS THE SEA BREEZE
SERVES AS ANOTHER TOOL FOR CONVECTION. THIS IS WHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOR THE MOST PART AS WELL AS INTO NORTHERN
NH AND UP TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION DIES DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND TEMPERATURES COOL OFF
SOMEWHAT BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
ARRIVES AHEAD OF DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHING. ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY
DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE.

THE SET UP FOR THURSDAY`S THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS MORE POTENT WITH
BETTER KINEMATICS AND OVERALL FORCING THAN TODAY. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE COULD HAVE EARLY
INITIATION AND STORM MODE WILL BE SUPERCELLULAR. BESIDES HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLASH FLOODING... EHI VALUES AND OTHER SPC
INDICES ARE HIGH FOR ROTATION AND SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS IN PARTS
OF MAINE... INDICATING PLENTY OF SHEAR FOR ROTATION. THIS IS
CONCERNING AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE HAD A TORNADO
SOMEWHERE IN FRANKLIN OR SOMERSET COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY PERIOD
APPEARS TO BE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BOARDER WEST OF
THE GREAT LAKES.  THERE IS GOOD DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
REINVIGORATE LONGWAVE TROUGHING NEAR HUDSON BAY.  THIS PATTERN IS
NOT ALL THAT ABNORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WHILE 500 HPA
HEIGHTS WILL BE A TAD BELOW NORMAL...T8S WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
GIVEN OUR LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS DEVELOPING
LONGWAVE TROUGHING...WE WILL HAVE ACCESS TO ROBUST WINDS ALOFT
WITH THE CORE OF THE JET ALOFT NEARBY...WITH NUMEROUS WEAK
SHORTWAVES IN THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. OVERALL...THIS PORTENDS TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH OCCASIONAL
BOUTS OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES IN THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. CERTAINLY NO WASHOUTS EXPECTED GIVEN THIS PATTERN...BUT
WITH DECENT WINDS ALOFT IN PLAY...CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

DETAILS:

DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...THUS ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO START THE PERIOD
WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST.  THIS DRIER REGIME SHOULD ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS
TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH PERHAPS ONE OR TWO SHOWERS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLD POOL AT H5.

SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES ON SATURDAY...WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AGAIN GREATEST IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST SOMEWHAT WITH THE
IMPROVED FORCING.  BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE...THERE IS MODEST AGREEMENT
ON QUIETER CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY SUNDAY IN A BROADLY SUBSIDENT
REGIME WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVERHEAD. THUS...MUCH LIKE
FRIDAY...WILL RESTRICT ANY LOW POPS TO THE MOUNTAINS.

MORE OF THE SAME AS WE REACH MONDAY-TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
DECREASING AGREEMENT ON SHORTWAVE TIMING AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MEMBERS.  THE RESULT...UNFORTUNATELY...IS THAT
ISOLATED/CHANCE POPS WILL BE WARRANTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST /BOTH DUE TO TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT AND PROXIMITY TO MID-UPPER
LEVEL FORCING/.

TEMPERATURES:  TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS FRIDAY...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE ASSISTANCE UNDER WESTERLY WINDS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSE
TO...OR JUST A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...WITH T8S NEARLY STEADY IN
THE LOW TO MID TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRI/...AREAS OF MVFR OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS
AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 09 AND 12Z TODAY IN PLACES WHICH
RECEIVED RAINFALL EARLIER. VFR PREVAILING TODAY WITH LCL MVFR
PSBL AFT 18Z IN WIDELY SCT SHRA AND TSRA VCNTY OF KAUG AND KRKD.
AREAS MVFR AFT 00Z THU IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN
08 AND 12Z THU.

LONG TERM...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH CONTINUED ISOLATED-SCATTERED
MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS GIVING WAY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE SATURDAY /MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT LEB/HIE/ WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATING ELSEWHERE...AND FOR ALL LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WAVES AND WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH SCA CONDITIONS IN
THE FAR OUTER WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MARGINAL SCA WINDS/WAVES THURSDAY EVENING WILL SUBSIDE
AND REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

HANES/ARNOTT



000
FXUS61 KGYX 291049 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
649 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND...A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS HAVE DRIED UP AND HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG STILL AROUND WITH MORE
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL DEBRIS MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND
OVER THE TOP OF RIDGING WHICH IS MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY. WE
ARE SEEING SOME OF THESE CLOUDS WORKING INTO NH AT THIS TIME. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH MUCH OF SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE
EASILY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 90S. ELSEWHERE WE SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST MID 80S. WE FALL SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BUT HIGH
HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE NORM MAY REQUIRE
SOME PEOPLE TO STAY INSIDE TODAY.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. SOME CONVECTION IS ALREADY
MOVING SE INTO CENTRAL NH... THIS EARLY MORNING RAIN WAS NOT
DEPICTED BY MOST MODELS. HOWEVER... MODELS HAVE BEEN PINGING THE
ROCKLAND/CAPITOL DISTRICT FOR A FEW DAYS NOW AS THE SEA BREEZE
SERVES AS ANOTHER TOOL FOR CONVECTION. THIS IS WHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOR THE MOST PART AS WELL AS INTO NORTHERN
NH AND UP TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION DIES DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND TEMPERATURES COOL OFF
SOMEWHAT BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
ARRIVES AHEAD OF DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHING. ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY
DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE.

THE SET UP FOR THURSDAY`S THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS MORE POTENT WITH
BETTER KINEMATICS AND OVERALL FORCING THAN TODAY. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE COULD HAVE EARLY
INITIATION AND STORM MODE WILL BE SUPERCELLULAR. BESIDES HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLASH FLOODING... EHI VALUES AND OTHER SPC
INDICES ARE HIGH FOR ROTATION AND SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS IN PARTS
OF MAINE... INDICATING PLENTY OF SHEAR FOR ROTATION. THIS IS
CONCERNING AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE HAD A TORNADO
SOMEWHERE IN FRANKLIN OR SOMERSET COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY PERIOD
APPEARS TO BE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BOARDER WEST OF
THE GREAT LAKES.  THERE IS GOOD DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
REINVIGORATE LONGWAVE TROUGHING NEAR HUDSON BAY.  THIS PATTERN IS
NOT ALL THAT ABNORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WHILE 500 HPA
HEIGHTS WILL BE A TAD BELOW NORMAL...T8S WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
GIVEN OUR LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS DEVELOPING
LONGWAVE TROUGHING...WE WILL HAVE ACCESS TO ROBUST WINDS ALOFT
WITH THE CORE OF THE JET ALOFT NEARBY...WITH NUMEROUS WEAK
SHORTWAVES IN THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. OVERALL...THIS PORTENDS TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH OCCASIONAL
BOUTS OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES IN THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. CERTAINLY NO WASHOUTS EXPECTED GIVEN THIS PATTERN...BUT
WITH DECENT WINDS ALOFT IN PLAY...CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

DETAILS:

DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...THUS ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO START THE PERIOD
WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST.  THIS DRIER REGIME SHOULD ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS
TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH PERHAPS ONE OR TWO SHOWERS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLD POOL AT H5.

SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES ON SATURDAY...WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AGAIN GREATEST IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST SOMEWHAT WITH THE
IMPROVED FORCING.  BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE...THERE IS MODEST AGREEMENT
ON QUIETER CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY SUNDAY IN A BROADLY SUBSIDENT
REGIME WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVERHEAD. THUS...MUCH LIKE
FRIDAY...WILL RESTRICT ANY LOW POPS TO THE MOUNTAINS.

MORE OF THE SAME AS WE REACH MONDAY-TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
DECREASING AGREEMENT ON SHORTWAVE TIMING AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MEMBERS.  THE RESULT...UNFORTUNATELY...IS THAT
ISOLATED/CHANCE POPS WILL BE WARRANTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST /BOTH DUE TO TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT AND PROXIMITY TO MID-UPPER
LEVEL FORCING/.

TEMPERATURES:  TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS FRIDAY...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE ASSISTANCE UNDER WESTERLY WINDS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSE
TO...OR JUST A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...WITH T8S NEARLY STEADY IN
THE LOW TO MID TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRI/...AREAS OF MVFR OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS
AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 09 AND 12Z TODAY IN PLACES WHICH
RECEIVED RAINFALL EARLIER. VFR PREVAILING TODAY WITH LCL MVFR
PSBL AFT 18Z IN WIDELY SCT SHRA AND TSRA VCNTY OF KAUG AND KRKD.
AREAS MVFR AFT 00Z THU IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN
08 AND 12Z THU.

LONG TERM...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH CONTINUED ISOLATED-SCATTERED
MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS GIVING WAY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE SATURDAY /MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT LEB/HIE/ WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATING ELSEWHERE...AND FOR ALL LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WAVES AND WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH SCA CONDITIONS IN
THE FAR OUTER WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MARGINAL SCA WINDS/WAVES THURSDAY EVENING WILL SUBSIDE
AND REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

HANES/ARNOTT



000
FXUS61 KGYX 291049 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
649 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND...A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS HAVE DRIED UP AND HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG STILL AROUND WITH MORE
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL DEBRIS MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND
OVER THE TOP OF RIDGING WHICH IS MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY. WE
ARE SEEING SOME OF THESE CLOUDS WORKING INTO NH AT THIS TIME. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH MUCH OF SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE
EASILY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 90S. ELSEWHERE WE SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST MID 80S. WE FALL SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BUT HIGH
HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE NORM MAY REQUIRE
SOME PEOPLE TO STAY INSIDE TODAY.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. SOME CONVECTION IS ALREADY
MOVING SE INTO CENTRAL NH... THIS EARLY MORNING RAIN WAS NOT
DEPICTED BY MOST MODELS. HOWEVER... MODELS HAVE BEEN PINGING THE
ROCKLAND/CAPITOL DISTRICT FOR A FEW DAYS NOW AS THE SEA BREEZE
SERVES AS ANOTHER TOOL FOR CONVECTION. THIS IS WHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOR THE MOST PART AS WELL AS INTO NORTHERN
NH AND UP TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION DIES DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND TEMPERATURES COOL OFF
SOMEWHAT BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
ARRIVES AHEAD OF DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHING. ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY
DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE.

THE SET UP FOR THURSDAY`S THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS MORE POTENT WITH
BETTER KINEMATICS AND OVERALL FORCING THAN TODAY. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE COULD HAVE EARLY
INITIATION AND STORM MODE WILL BE SUPERCELLULAR. BESIDES HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLASH FLOODING... EHI VALUES AND OTHER SPC
INDICES ARE HIGH FOR ROTATION AND SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS IN PARTS
OF MAINE... INDICATING PLENTY OF SHEAR FOR ROTATION. THIS IS
CONCERNING AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE HAD A TORNADO
SOMEWHERE IN FRANKLIN OR SOMERSET COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY PERIOD
APPEARS TO BE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BOARDER WEST OF
THE GREAT LAKES.  THERE IS GOOD DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
REINVIGORATE LONGWAVE TROUGHING NEAR HUDSON BAY.  THIS PATTERN IS
NOT ALL THAT ABNORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WHILE 500 HPA
HEIGHTS WILL BE A TAD BELOW NORMAL...T8S WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
GIVEN OUR LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS DEVELOPING
LONGWAVE TROUGHING...WE WILL HAVE ACCESS TO ROBUST WINDS ALOFT
WITH THE CORE OF THE JET ALOFT NEARBY...WITH NUMEROUS WEAK
SHORTWAVES IN THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. OVERALL...THIS PORTENDS TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH OCCASIONAL
BOUTS OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES IN THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. CERTAINLY NO WASHOUTS EXPECTED GIVEN THIS PATTERN...BUT
WITH DECENT WINDS ALOFT IN PLAY...CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

DETAILS:

DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...THUS ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO START THE PERIOD
WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST.  THIS DRIER REGIME SHOULD ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS
TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH PERHAPS ONE OR TWO SHOWERS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLD POOL AT H5.

SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES ON SATURDAY...WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AGAIN GREATEST IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST SOMEWHAT WITH THE
IMPROVED FORCING.  BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE...THERE IS MODEST AGREEMENT
ON QUIETER CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY SUNDAY IN A BROADLY SUBSIDENT
REGIME WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVERHEAD. THUS...MUCH LIKE
FRIDAY...WILL RESTRICT ANY LOW POPS TO THE MOUNTAINS.

MORE OF THE SAME AS WE REACH MONDAY-TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
DECREASING AGREEMENT ON SHORTWAVE TIMING AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MEMBERS.  THE RESULT...UNFORTUNATELY...IS THAT
ISOLATED/CHANCE POPS WILL BE WARRANTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST /BOTH DUE TO TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT AND PROXIMITY TO MID-UPPER
LEVEL FORCING/.

TEMPERATURES:  TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS FRIDAY...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE ASSISTANCE UNDER WESTERLY WINDS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSE
TO...OR JUST A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...WITH T8S NEARLY STEADY IN
THE LOW TO MID TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRI/...AREAS OF MVFR OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS
AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 09 AND 12Z TODAY IN PLACES WHICH
RECEIVED RAINFALL EARLIER. VFR PREVAILING TODAY WITH LCL MVFR
PSBL AFT 18Z IN WIDELY SCT SHRA AND TSRA VCNTY OF KAUG AND KRKD.
AREAS MVFR AFT 00Z THU IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN
08 AND 12Z THU.

LONG TERM...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH CONTINUED ISOLATED-SCATTERED
MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS GIVING WAY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE SATURDAY /MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT LEB/HIE/ WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATING ELSEWHERE...AND FOR ALL LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WAVES AND WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH SCA CONDITIONS IN
THE FAR OUTER WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MARGINAL SCA WINDS/WAVES THURSDAY EVENING WILL SUBSIDE
AND REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

HANES/ARNOTT



000
FXUS61 KGYX 291049 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
649 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND...A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS HAVE DRIED UP AND HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG STILL AROUND WITH MORE
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL DEBRIS MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND
OVER THE TOP OF RIDGING WHICH IS MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY. WE
ARE SEEING SOME OF THESE CLOUDS WORKING INTO NH AT THIS TIME. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH MUCH OF SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE
EASILY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 90S. ELSEWHERE WE SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST MID 80S. WE FALL SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BUT HIGH
HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE NORM MAY REQUIRE
SOME PEOPLE TO STAY INSIDE TODAY.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. SOME CONVECTION IS ALREADY
MOVING SE INTO CENTRAL NH... THIS EARLY MORNING RAIN WAS NOT
DEPICTED BY MOST MODELS. HOWEVER... MODELS HAVE BEEN PINGING THE
ROCKLAND/CAPITOL DISTRICT FOR A FEW DAYS NOW AS THE SEA BREEZE
SERVES AS ANOTHER TOOL FOR CONVECTION. THIS IS WHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOR THE MOST PART AS WELL AS INTO NORTHERN
NH AND UP TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION DIES DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND TEMPERATURES COOL OFF
SOMEWHAT BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
ARRIVES AHEAD OF DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHING. ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY
DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE.

THE SET UP FOR THURSDAY`S THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS MORE POTENT WITH
BETTER KINEMATICS AND OVERALL FORCING THAN TODAY. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE COULD HAVE EARLY
INITIATION AND STORM MODE WILL BE SUPERCELLULAR. BESIDES HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLASH FLOODING... EHI VALUES AND OTHER SPC
INDICES ARE HIGH FOR ROTATION AND SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS IN PARTS
OF MAINE... INDICATING PLENTY OF SHEAR FOR ROTATION. THIS IS
CONCERNING AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE HAD A TORNADO
SOMEWHERE IN FRANKLIN OR SOMERSET COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY PERIOD
APPEARS TO BE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BOARDER WEST OF
THE GREAT LAKES.  THERE IS GOOD DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
REINVIGORATE LONGWAVE TROUGHING NEAR HUDSON BAY.  THIS PATTERN IS
NOT ALL THAT ABNORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WHILE 500 HPA
HEIGHTS WILL BE A TAD BELOW NORMAL...T8S WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
GIVEN OUR LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS DEVELOPING
LONGWAVE TROUGHING...WE WILL HAVE ACCESS TO ROBUST WINDS ALOFT
WITH THE CORE OF THE JET ALOFT NEARBY...WITH NUMEROUS WEAK
SHORTWAVES IN THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. OVERALL...THIS PORTENDS TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH OCCASIONAL
BOUTS OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES IN THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. CERTAINLY NO WASHOUTS EXPECTED GIVEN THIS PATTERN...BUT
WITH DECENT WINDS ALOFT IN PLAY...CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

DETAILS:

DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...THUS ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO START THE PERIOD
WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST.  THIS DRIER REGIME SHOULD ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS
TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH PERHAPS ONE OR TWO SHOWERS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLD POOL AT H5.

SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES ON SATURDAY...WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AGAIN GREATEST IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST SOMEWHAT WITH THE
IMPROVED FORCING.  BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE...THERE IS MODEST AGREEMENT
ON QUIETER CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY SUNDAY IN A BROADLY SUBSIDENT
REGIME WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVERHEAD. THUS...MUCH LIKE
FRIDAY...WILL RESTRICT ANY LOW POPS TO THE MOUNTAINS.

MORE OF THE SAME AS WE REACH MONDAY-TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
DECREASING AGREEMENT ON SHORTWAVE TIMING AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MEMBERS.  THE RESULT...UNFORTUNATELY...IS THAT
ISOLATED/CHANCE POPS WILL BE WARRANTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST /BOTH DUE TO TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT AND PROXIMITY TO MID-UPPER
LEVEL FORCING/.

TEMPERATURES:  TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS FRIDAY...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE ASSISTANCE UNDER WESTERLY WINDS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSE
TO...OR JUST A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...WITH T8S NEARLY STEADY IN
THE LOW TO MID TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRI/...AREAS OF MVFR OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS
AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 09 AND 12Z TODAY IN PLACES WHICH
RECEIVED RAINFALL EARLIER. VFR PREVAILING TODAY WITH LCL MVFR
PSBL AFT 18Z IN WIDELY SCT SHRA AND TSRA VCNTY OF KAUG AND KRKD.
AREAS MVFR AFT 00Z THU IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN
08 AND 12Z THU.

LONG TERM...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH CONTINUED ISOLATED-SCATTERED
MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS GIVING WAY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE SATURDAY /MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT LEB/HIE/ WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATING ELSEWHERE...AND FOR ALL LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WAVES AND WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH SCA CONDITIONS IN
THE FAR OUTER WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MARGINAL SCA WINDS/WAVES THURSDAY EVENING WILL SUBSIDE
AND REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

HANES/ARNOTT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290813
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
413 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT
AS WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AND PROBABLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DRY...CAN/T RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM EACH
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

*** HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD METRO REGIONS FOR
  TODAY ***

4 AM UPDATE...

A MILD NIGHT CONTINUES AS DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S WITH TEMPS JUST A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER. THIS LOW
TEMPS/DEWPOINT SPREAD HAS ALLOWED FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE MASS/RI
AND THE ISLANDS. EXPECT FOG TO SLOWLY INCREASE ESP IN REGIONS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN YESTERDAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. HAVE ISSUED A
A DENSE FOG ADV FOR THE MASS ISLANDS AS VSBYS ARE BELOW 1/4SM.
ALSO NOTICED IN WEBCAMS THAT WOODS HOLE IS LOCALLY DENSE AS WELL.
DRIVERS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION THIS MORNING.

TODAY...

MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CREST OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE MUGGY AIRMASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. 850MB TEMPS WARM TO 18-20C
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THEN YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THEN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
WITH UPPER 90S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID
60S AND WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
HOWEVER ACROSS THE CT VALLEY REGION...ESP IN THE
HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD METRO REGIONS HEAT INDICES WILL REACH BETWEEN
98 AND 101. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS REGION.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE DAY SHIFT MAY EXPAND IF TEMPS AND/OR
DEWPOINTS INCREASE MORE THAN FORECASTED.

ASIDE FROM THE HEAT...FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER TODAY IF LOCATIONS REACH THEIR
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER
BECAUSE IT WILL BE A ROGUE SHOWER HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

DRY WEATHER WILL RESUME TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG ESP FOR THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHEST. OTHERWISE A MUGGY AND MILD NIGHT WILL BE
ON TAP WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 70S.

TOMORROW...

DESCENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON THURSDAY PUSHING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WARM...HUMID AIRMASS WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING FRONT. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TO HAVE 70+
DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER...IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S. HEAT INDICES WILL STILL BE HIGH...REACHING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE FRONT. IN FACT
MOST MODELS HAVE SPED THIS SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6+ HOURS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AROUND 18Z AND
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO A SEVERE
STORM IS POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH MARGINAL
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHEAR VALUES LOOK TO BE ALONG OR BEHIND THE
FRONT...WHICH COULD LIMIT STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL. BIGGEST THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS LEADING TO NUISANCE
FLOODING AS PWAT VALUES ARE ABOUT 2+ INCHES. GUSTY WINDS/LOCALIZED
DOWNBURST ALSO CANNOT BE RULE OUT DUE TO THE INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IS ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
  AND THUNDERSTORMS THU NIGHT

* NOT AS WARM AND HUMID FRIDAY AND BEYOND

* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

IMPRESSIVE AND ANOMALOUS VORTEX CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AS
SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE THIS PERIOD...AS IT EVOLVES INTO A MUCH BROADER CIRCULATION
OVER JAMES AND HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTS
IN A BROAD MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA SOUTHWARD BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
LASTING THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN GOOD MULTI
MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THIS PERIOD...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
WHILE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS MARGINAL IN THE PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...PWATS CLIMB TO 2+ INCHES /+2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO/. THUS GREATER RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS DOESN/T
ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY.

FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY...

TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARRIVES
FRIDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.  SO BEST WORDING WOULD BE MANY
HOURS OF DRY WEATHER THIS PERIOD BUT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MANY SITES...HOWEVER
ANTICIPATE PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DROPPED SOME SITES DOWN TO IFR OR
EVEN LIFR. BEST LOCATIONS IS ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS AND SOUTH
COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S.

TODAY INTO TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT DROPPING CONDITIONS TO IFR.

THURSDAY...VFR TO START CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR IN -SHRA/TSRA
BETWEEN 18-00Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS BETWEEN
14-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
VERY LOW RISK FOR AN AFTERNOON T-STORM SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT HAS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN PLACE. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL INCREASE
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY NEAR 25 KTS.
PERSISENT SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE SEAS BETWEEN 4-6 FEET. A
SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE. ROUGH SEAS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS WITH WIND WAVES OF 3 TO 6
FT POSSIBLE. VSBY REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE WITH
WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS FROM THU
NIGHT LINGER FRI BUT SLOWLY DIMINISH.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR 7/29:

BOSTON97 ON 1933 & 1931

PROVIDENCE95 ON 2002 & 1949

BRADLEY96 ON 1933

WORCESTER94 ON 1892

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ002.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ023-024.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ011.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290813
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
413 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT
AS WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AND PROBABLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DRY...CAN/T RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM EACH
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

*** HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD METRO REGIONS FOR
  TODAY ***

4 AM UPDATE...

A MILD NIGHT CONTINUES AS DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S WITH TEMPS JUST A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER. THIS LOW
TEMPS/DEWPOINT SPREAD HAS ALLOWED FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE MASS/RI
AND THE ISLANDS. EXPECT FOG TO SLOWLY INCREASE ESP IN REGIONS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN YESTERDAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. HAVE ISSUED A
A DENSE FOG ADV FOR THE MASS ISLANDS AS VSBYS ARE BELOW 1/4SM.
ALSO NOTICED IN WEBCAMS THAT WOODS HOLE IS LOCALLY DENSE AS WELL.
DRIVERS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION THIS MORNING.

TODAY...

MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CREST OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE MUGGY AIRMASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. 850MB TEMPS WARM TO 18-20C
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THEN YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THEN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
WITH UPPER 90S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID
60S AND WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
HOWEVER ACROSS THE CT VALLEY REGION...ESP IN THE
HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD METRO REGIONS HEAT INDICES WILL REACH BETWEEN
98 AND 101. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS REGION.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE DAY SHIFT MAY EXPAND IF TEMPS AND/OR
DEWPOINTS INCREASE MORE THAN FORECASTED.

ASIDE FROM THE HEAT...FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER TODAY IF LOCATIONS REACH THEIR
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER
BECAUSE IT WILL BE A ROGUE SHOWER HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

DRY WEATHER WILL RESUME TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG ESP FOR THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHEST. OTHERWISE A MUGGY AND MILD NIGHT WILL BE
ON TAP WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 70S.

TOMORROW...

DESCENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON THURSDAY PUSHING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WARM...HUMID AIRMASS WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING FRONT. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TO HAVE 70+
DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER...IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S. HEAT INDICES WILL STILL BE HIGH...REACHING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE FRONT. IN FACT
MOST MODELS HAVE SPED THIS SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6+ HOURS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AROUND 18Z AND
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO A SEVERE
STORM IS POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH MARGINAL
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHEAR VALUES LOOK TO BE ALONG OR BEHIND THE
FRONT...WHICH COULD LIMIT STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL. BIGGEST THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS LEADING TO NUISANCE
FLOODING AS PWAT VALUES ARE ABOUT 2+ INCHES. GUSTY WINDS/LOCALIZED
DOWNBURST ALSO CANNOT BE RULE OUT DUE TO THE INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IS ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
  AND THUNDERSTORMS THU NIGHT

* NOT AS WARM AND HUMID FRIDAY AND BEYOND

* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

IMPRESSIVE AND ANOMALOUS VORTEX CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AS
SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE THIS PERIOD...AS IT EVOLVES INTO A MUCH BROADER CIRCULATION
OVER JAMES AND HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTS
IN A BROAD MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA SOUTHWARD BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
LASTING THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN GOOD MULTI
MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THIS PERIOD...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
WHILE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS MARGINAL IN THE PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...PWATS CLIMB TO 2+ INCHES /+2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO/. THUS GREATER RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS DOESN/T
ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY.

FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY...

TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARRIVES
FRIDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.  SO BEST WORDING WOULD BE MANY
HOURS OF DRY WEATHER THIS PERIOD BUT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MANY SITES...HOWEVER
ANTICIPATE PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DROPPED SOME SITES DOWN TO IFR OR
EVEN LIFR. BEST LOCATIONS IS ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS AND SOUTH
COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S.

TODAY INTO TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT DROPPING CONDITIONS TO IFR.

THURSDAY...VFR TO START CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR IN -SHRA/TSRA
BETWEEN 18-00Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS BETWEEN
14-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
VERY LOW RISK FOR AN AFTERNOON T-STORM SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT HAS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN PLACE. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL INCREASE
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY NEAR 25 KTS.
PERSISENT SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE SEAS BETWEEN 4-6 FEET. A
SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE. ROUGH SEAS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS WITH WIND WAVES OF 3 TO 6
FT POSSIBLE. VSBY REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE WITH
WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS FROM THU
NIGHT LINGER FRI BUT SLOWLY DIMINISH.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR 7/29:

BOSTON97 ON 1933 & 1931

PROVIDENCE95 ON 2002 & 1949

BRADLEY96 ON 1933

WORCESTER94 ON 1892

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ002.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ023-024.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ011.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290748
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
348 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT
AS WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AND PROBABLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DRY...CAN/T RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM EACH
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED A DEGREE OR TWO BUT ANTICIPATE LOW TEMPS
TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT AS
DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS WELL. THIS
LOW TEMPS/DEWPOINT SPREAD HAS ALLOWED FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE
MASS/RI AND THE ISLANDS. EXPECT FOG TO SLOWLY INCREASE ESP IN
REGIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADV IF VSBYS DROP ANY LOWER...RIGHT NOW
MANY SITES ARE HOLDING AROUND 2-4SM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IS ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
  AND THUNDERSTORMS THU NIGHT

* NOT AS WARM AND HUMID FRIDAY AND BEYOND

* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

IMPRESSIVE AND ANOMALOUS VORTEX CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AS
SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE THIS PERIOD...AS IT EVOLVES INTO A MUCH BROADER CIRCULATION
OVER JAMES AND HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTS
IN A BROAD MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA SOUTHWARD BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
LASTING THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN GOOD MULTI
MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THIS PERIOD...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
WHILE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS MARGINAL IN THE PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...PWATS CLIMB TO 2+ INCHES /+2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO/. THUS GREATER RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS DOESN/T
ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY.

FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY...

TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARRIVES
FRIDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.  SO BEST WORDING WOULD BE MANY
HOURS OF DRY WEATHER THIS PERIOD BUT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MANY SITES...HOWEVER
ANTICIPATE PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP DROPPING SOME SITES DOWN
TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR. BEST SPOT WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS
AND SOUTH COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
IFR.

THURSDAY...VFR TO START CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR IN -SHRA/TSRA
BETWEEN 18-00Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS BETWEEN
14-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
VERY LOW RISK FOR AN AFTERNOON T-STORM SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE. ROUGH SEAS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS WITH WIND WAVES OF 3 TO 6
FT POSSIBLE. VSBY REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE WITH
WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS FROM THU
NIGHT LINGER FRI BUT SLOWLY DIMINISH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ002.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ023-024.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ011.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290748
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
348 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT
AS WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AND PROBABLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DRY...CAN/T RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM EACH
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED A DEGREE OR TWO BUT ANTICIPATE LOW TEMPS
TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT AS
DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS WELL. THIS
LOW TEMPS/DEWPOINT SPREAD HAS ALLOWED FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE
MASS/RI AND THE ISLANDS. EXPECT FOG TO SLOWLY INCREASE ESP IN
REGIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADV IF VSBYS DROP ANY LOWER...RIGHT NOW
MANY SITES ARE HOLDING AROUND 2-4SM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IS ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
  AND THUNDERSTORMS THU NIGHT

* NOT AS WARM AND HUMID FRIDAY AND BEYOND

* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

IMPRESSIVE AND ANOMALOUS VORTEX CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AS
SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE THIS PERIOD...AS IT EVOLVES INTO A MUCH BROADER CIRCULATION
OVER JAMES AND HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTS
IN A BROAD MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA SOUTHWARD BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
LASTING THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN GOOD MULTI
MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THIS PERIOD...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
WHILE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS MARGINAL IN THE PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...PWATS CLIMB TO 2+ INCHES /+2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO/. THUS GREATER RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS DOESN/T
ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY.

FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY...

TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARRIVES
FRIDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.  SO BEST WORDING WOULD BE MANY
HOURS OF DRY WEATHER THIS PERIOD BUT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MANY SITES...HOWEVER
ANTICIPATE PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP DROPPING SOME SITES DOWN
TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR. BEST SPOT WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS
AND SOUTH COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
IFR.

THURSDAY...VFR TO START CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR IN -SHRA/TSRA
BETWEEN 18-00Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS BETWEEN
14-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
VERY LOW RISK FOR AN AFTERNOON T-STORM SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE. ROUGH SEAS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS WITH WIND WAVES OF 3 TO 6
FT POSSIBLE. VSBY REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE WITH
WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS FROM THU
NIGHT LINGER FRI BUT SLOWLY DIMINISH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ002.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ023-024.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ011.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 290744
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
344 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND...A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL DEBRIS MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND
OVER THE TOP OF RIDGING WHICH IS MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY. WE
ARE SEEING SOME OF THESE CLOUDS WORKING INTO NH AT THIS TIME. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH MUCH OF SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE
EASILY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 90S. ELSEWHERE WE SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST MID 80S. WE FALL SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BUT HIGH
HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE NORM MAY REQUIRE
SOME PEOPLE TO STAY INSIDE TODAY.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. SOME CONVECTION IS ALREADY
MOVING SE INTO CENTRAL NH... THIS EARLY MORNING RAIN WAS NOT
DEPICTED BY MOST MODELS. HOWEVER... MODELS HAVE BEEN PINGING THE
ROCKLAND/CAPITOL DISTRICT FOR A FEW DAYS NOW AS THE SEA BREEZE
SERVES AS ANOTHER TOOL FOR CONVECTION. THIS IS WHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOR THE MOST PART AS WELL AS INTO NORTHERN
NH AND UP TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION DIES DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND TEMPERATURES COOL OFF
SOMEWHAT BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
ARRIVES AHEAD OF DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHING. ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY
DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE.

THE SET UP FOR THURSDAY`S THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS MORE POTENT WITH
BETTER KINEMATICS AND OVERALL FORCING THAN TODAY. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE COULD HAVE EARLY
INITIATION AND STORM MODE WILL BE SUPERCELLULAR. BESIDES HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLASH FLOODING... EHI VALUES AND OTHER SPC
INDICES ARE HIGH FOR ROTATION AND SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS IN PARTS
OF MAINE... INDICATING PLENTY OF SHEAR FOR ROTATION. THIS IS
CONCERNING AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE HAD A TORNADO
SOMEWHERE IN FRANKLIN OR SOMERSET COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY PERIOD
APPEARS TO BE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BOARDER WEST OF
THE GREAT LAKES.  THERE IS GOOD DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
REINVIGORATE LONGWAVE TROUGHING NEAR HUDSON BAY.  THIS PATTERN IS
NOT ALL THAT ABNORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WHILE 500 HPA
HEIGHTS WILL BE A TAD BELOW NORMAL...T8S WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
GIVEN OUR LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS DEVELOPING
LONGWAVE TROUGHING...WE WILL HAVE ACCESS TO ROBUST WINDS ALOFT
WITH THE CORE OF THE JET ALOFT NEARBY...WITH NUMEROUS WEAK
SHORTWAVES IN THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. OVERALL...THIS PORTENDS TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH OCCASIONAL
BOUTS OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES IN THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. CERTAINLY NO WASHOUTS EXPECTED GIVEN THIS PATTERN...BUT
WITH DECENT WINDS ALOFT IN PLAY...CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

DETAILS:

DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...THUS ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO START THE PERIOD
WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST.  THIS DRIER REGIME SHOULD ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS
TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH PERHAPS ONE OR TWO SHOWERS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLD POOL AT H5.

SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES ON SATURDAY...WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AGAIN GREATEST IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST SOMEWHAT WITH THE
IMPROVED FORCING.  BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE...THERE IS MODEST AGREEMENT
ON QUIETER CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY SUNDAY IN A BROADLY SUBSIDENT
REGIME WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVERHEAD. THUS...MUCH LIKE
FRIDAY...WILL RESTRICT ANY LOW POPS TO THE MOUNTAINS.

MORE OF THE SAME AS WE REACH MONDAY-TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
DECREASING AGREEMENT ON SHORTWAVE TIMING AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MEMBERS.  THE RESULT...UNFORTUNATELY...IS THAT
ISOLATED/CHANCE POPS WILL BE WARRANTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST /BOTH DUE TO TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT AND PROXIMITY TO MID-UPPER
LEVEL FORCING/.

TEMPERATURES:  TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS FRIDAY...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE ASSISTANCE UNDER WESTERLY WINDS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSE
TO...OR JUST A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...WITH T8S NEARLY STEADY IN
THE LOW TO MID TEENS.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRI/...AREAS OF MVFR OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS
AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 09 AND 12Z TODAY IN PLACES WHICH
RECEIVED RAINFALL EARLIER. VFR PREVAILING TODAY WITH LCL MVFR
PSBL AFT 18Z IN WIDELY SCT SHRA AND TSRA VCNTY OF KAUG AND KRKD.
AREAS MVFR AFT 00Z THU IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN
08 AND 12Z THU.

LONG TERM...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH CONTINUED ISOLATED-SCATTERED
MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS GIVING WAY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE SATURDAY /MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT LEB/HIE/ WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATING ELSEWHERE...AND FOR ALL LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WAVES AND WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH SCA CONDITIONS IN
THE FAR OUTER WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MARGINAL SCA WINDS/WAVES THURSDAY EVENING WILL SUBSIDE
AND REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

HANES/ARNOTT



000
FXUS61 KGYX 290744
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
344 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND...A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL DEBRIS MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND
OVER THE TOP OF RIDGING WHICH IS MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY. WE
ARE SEEING SOME OF THESE CLOUDS WORKING INTO NH AT THIS TIME. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH MUCH OF SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE
EASILY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 90S. ELSEWHERE WE SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST MID 80S. WE FALL SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BUT HIGH
HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE NORM MAY REQUIRE
SOME PEOPLE TO STAY INSIDE TODAY.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. SOME CONVECTION IS ALREADY
MOVING SE INTO CENTRAL NH... THIS EARLY MORNING RAIN WAS NOT
DEPICTED BY MOST MODELS. HOWEVER... MODELS HAVE BEEN PINGING THE
ROCKLAND/CAPITOL DISTRICT FOR A FEW DAYS NOW AS THE SEA BREEZE
SERVES AS ANOTHER TOOL FOR CONVECTION. THIS IS WHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOR THE MOST PART AS WELL AS INTO NORTHERN
NH AND UP TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION DIES DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND TEMPERATURES COOL OFF
SOMEWHAT BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
ARRIVES AHEAD OF DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHING. ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY
DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE.

THE SET UP FOR THURSDAY`S THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS MORE POTENT WITH
BETTER KINEMATICS AND OVERALL FORCING THAN TODAY. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE COULD HAVE EARLY
INITIATION AND STORM MODE WILL BE SUPERCELLULAR. BESIDES HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLASH FLOODING... EHI VALUES AND OTHER SPC
INDICES ARE HIGH FOR ROTATION AND SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS IN PARTS
OF MAINE... INDICATING PLENTY OF SHEAR FOR ROTATION. THIS IS
CONCERNING AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE HAD A TORNADO
SOMEWHERE IN FRANKLIN OR SOMERSET COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY PERIOD
APPEARS TO BE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BOARDER WEST OF
THE GREAT LAKES.  THERE IS GOOD DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
REINVIGORATE LONGWAVE TROUGHING NEAR HUDSON BAY.  THIS PATTERN IS
NOT ALL THAT ABNORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WHILE 500 HPA
HEIGHTS WILL BE A TAD BELOW NORMAL...T8S WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
GIVEN OUR LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS DEVELOPING
LONGWAVE TROUGHING...WE WILL HAVE ACCESS TO ROBUST WINDS ALOFT
WITH THE CORE OF THE JET ALOFT NEARBY...WITH NUMEROUS WEAK
SHORTWAVES IN THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. OVERALL...THIS PORTENDS TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH OCCASIONAL
BOUTS OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES IN THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. CERTAINLY NO WASHOUTS EXPECTED GIVEN THIS PATTERN...BUT
WITH DECENT WINDS ALOFT IN PLAY...CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

DETAILS:

DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...THUS ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO START THE PERIOD
WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST.  THIS DRIER REGIME SHOULD ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS
TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH PERHAPS ONE OR TWO SHOWERS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLD POOL AT H5.

SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES ON SATURDAY...WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AGAIN GREATEST IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST SOMEWHAT WITH THE
IMPROVED FORCING.  BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE...THERE IS MODEST AGREEMENT
ON QUIETER CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY SUNDAY IN A BROADLY SUBSIDENT
REGIME WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVERHEAD. THUS...MUCH LIKE
FRIDAY...WILL RESTRICT ANY LOW POPS TO THE MOUNTAINS.

MORE OF THE SAME AS WE REACH MONDAY-TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
DECREASING AGREEMENT ON SHORTWAVE TIMING AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MEMBERS.  THE RESULT...UNFORTUNATELY...IS THAT
ISOLATED/CHANCE POPS WILL BE WARRANTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST /BOTH DUE TO TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT AND PROXIMITY TO MID-UPPER
LEVEL FORCING/.

TEMPERATURES:  TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS FRIDAY...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE ASSISTANCE UNDER WESTERLY WINDS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSE
TO...OR JUST A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...WITH T8S NEARLY STEADY IN
THE LOW TO MID TEENS.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRI/...AREAS OF MVFR OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS
AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 09 AND 12Z TODAY IN PLACES WHICH
RECEIVED RAINFALL EARLIER. VFR PREVAILING TODAY WITH LCL MVFR
PSBL AFT 18Z IN WIDELY SCT SHRA AND TSRA VCNTY OF KAUG AND KRKD.
AREAS MVFR AFT 00Z THU IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN
08 AND 12Z THU.

LONG TERM...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH CONTINUED ISOLATED-SCATTERED
MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS GIVING WAY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE SATURDAY /MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT LEB/HIE/ WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATING ELSEWHERE...AND FOR ALL LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WAVES AND WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH SCA CONDITIONS IN
THE FAR OUTER WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MARGINAL SCA WINDS/WAVES THURSDAY EVENING WILL SUBSIDE
AND REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

HANES/ARNOTT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 290744
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
344 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND...A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL DEBRIS MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND
OVER THE TOP OF RIDGING WHICH IS MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY. WE
ARE SEEING SOME OF THESE CLOUDS WORKING INTO NH AT THIS TIME. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH MUCH OF SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE
EASILY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 90S. ELSEWHERE WE SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST MID 80S. WE FALL SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BUT HIGH
HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE NORM MAY REQUIRE
SOME PEOPLE TO STAY INSIDE TODAY.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. SOME CONVECTION IS ALREADY
MOVING SE INTO CENTRAL NH... THIS EARLY MORNING RAIN WAS NOT
DEPICTED BY MOST MODELS. HOWEVER... MODELS HAVE BEEN PINGING THE
ROCKLAND/CAPITOL DISTRICT FOR A FEW DAYS NOW AS THE SEA BREEZE
SERVES AS ANOTHER TOOL FOR CONVECTION. THIS IS WHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOR THE MOST PART AS WELL AS INTO NORTHERN
NH AND UP TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION DIES DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND TEMPERATURES COOL OFF
SOMEWHAT BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
ARRIVES AHEAD OF DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHING. ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY
DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE.

THE SET UP FOR THURSDAY`S THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS MORE POTENT WITH
BETTER KINEMATICS AND OVERALL FORCING THAN TODAY. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE COULD HAVE EARLY
INITIATION AND STORM MODE WILL BE SUPERCELLULAR. BESIDES HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLASH FLOODING... EHI VALUES AND OTHER SPC
INDICES ARE HIGH FOR ROTATION AND SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS IN PARTS
OF MAINE... INDICATING PLENTY OF SHEAR FOR ROTATION. THIS IS
CONCERNING AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE HAD A TORNADO
SOMEWHERE IN FRANKLIN OR SOMERSET COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY PERIOD
APPEARS TO BE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BOARDER WEST OF
THE GREAT LAKES.  THERE IS GOOD DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
REINVIGORATE LONGWAVE TROUGHING NEAR HUDSON BAY.  THIS PATTERN IS
NOT ALL THAT ABNORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WHILE 500 HPA
HEIGHTS WILL BE A TAD BELOW NORMAL...T8S WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
GIVEN OUR LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS DEVELOPING
LONGWAVE TROUGHING...WE WILL HAVE ACCESS TO ROBUST WINDS ALOFT
WITH THE CORE OF THE JET ALOFT NEARBY...WITH NUMEROUS WEAK
SHORTWAVES IN THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. OVERALL...THIS PORTENDS TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH OCCASIONAL
BOUTS OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES IN THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. CERTAINLY NO WASHOUTS EXPECTED GIVEN THIS PATTERN...BUT
WITH DECENT WINDS ALOFT IN PLAY...CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

DETAILS:

DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...THUS ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO START THE PERIOD
WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST.  THIS DRIER REGIME SHOULD ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS
TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH PERHAPS ONE OR TWO SHOWERS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLD POOL AT H5.

SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES ON SATURDAY...WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AGAIN GREATEST IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST SOMEWHAT WITH THE
IMPROVED FORCING.  BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE...THERE IS MODEST AGREEMENT
ON QUIETER CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY SUNDAY IN A BROADLY SUBSIDENT
REGIME WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVERHEAD. THUS...MUCH LIKE
FRIDAY...WILL RESTRICT ANY LOW POPS TO THE MOUNTAINS.

MORE OF THE SAME AS WE REACH MONDAY-TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
DECREASING AGREEMENT ON SHORTWAVE TIMING AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MEMBERS.  THE RESULT...UNFORTUNATELY...IS THAT
ISOLATED/CHANCE POPS WILL BE WARRANTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST /BOTH DUE TO TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT AND PROXIMITY TO MID-UPPER
LEVEL FORCING/.

TEMPERATURES:  TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS FRIDAY...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE ASSISTANCE UNDER WESTERLY WINDS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSE
TO...OR JUST A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...WITH T8S NEARLY STEADY IN
THE LOW TO MID TEENS.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRI/...AREAS OF MVFR OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS
AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 09 AND 12Z TODAY IN PLACES WHICH
RECEIVED RAINFALL EARLIER. VFR PREVAILING TODAY WITH LCL MVFR
PSBL AFT 18Z IN WIDELY SCT SHRA AND TSRA VCNTY OF KAUG AND KRKD.
AREAS MVFR AFT 00Z THU IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN
08 AND 12Z THU.

LONG TERM...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH CONTINUED ISOLATED-SCATTERED
MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS GIVING WAY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE SATURDAY /MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT LEB/HIE/ WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATING ELSEWHERE...AND FOR ALL LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WAVES AND WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH SCA CONDITIONS IN
THE FAR OUTER WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MARGINAL SCA WINDS/WAVES THURSDAY EVENING WILL SUBSIDE
AND REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

HANES/ARNOTT



000
FXUS61 KGYX 290744
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
344 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND...A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL DEBRIS MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND
OVER THE TOP OF RIDGING WHICH IS MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY. WE
ARE SEEING SOME OF THESE CLOUDS WORKING INTO NH AT THIS TIME. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH MUCH OF SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE
EASILY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 90S. ELSEWHERE WE SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST MID 80S. WE FALL SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BUT HIGH
HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE NORM MAY REQUIRE
SOME PEOPLE TO STAY INSIDE TODAY.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. SOME CONVECTION IS ALREADY
MOVING SE INTO CENTRAL NH... THIS EARLY MORNING RAIN WAS NOT
DEPICTED BY MOST MODELS. HOWEVER... MODELS HAVE BEEN PINGING THE
ROCKLAND/CAPITOL DISTRICT FOR A FEW DAYS NOW AS THE SEA BREEZE
SERVES AS ANOTHER TOOL FOR CONVECTION. THIS IS WHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOR THE MOST PART AS WELL AS INTO NORTHERN
NH AND UP TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION DIES DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND TEMPERATURES COOL OFF
SOMEWHAT BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
ARRIVES AHEAD OF DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHING. ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY
DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE.

THE SET UP FOR THURSDAY`S THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS MORE POTENT WITH
BETTER KINEMATICS AND OVERALL FORCING THAN TODAY. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE COULD HAVE EARLY
INITIATION AND STORM MODE WILL BE SUPERCELLULAR. BESIDES HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLASH FLOODING... EHI VALUES AND OTHER SPC
INDICES ARE HIGH FOR ROTATION AND SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS IN PARTS
OF MAINE... INDICATING PLENTY OF SHEAR FOR ROTATION. THIS IS
CONCERNING AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE HAD A TORNADO
SOMEWHERE IN FRANKLIN OR SOMERSET COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY PERIOD
APPEARS TO BE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BOARDER WEST OF
THE GREAT LAKES.  THERE IS GOOD DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
REINVIGORATE LONGWAVE TROUGHING NEAR HUDSON BAY.  THIS PATTERN IS
NOT ALL THAT ABNORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WHILE 500 HPA
HEIGHTS WILL BE A TAD BELOW NORMAL...T8S WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
GIVEN OUR LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS DEVELOPING
LONGWAVE TROUGHING...WE WILL HAVE ACCESS TO ROBUST WINDS ALOFT
WITH THE CORE OF THE JET ALOFT NEARBY...WITH NUMEROUS WEAK
SHORTWAVES IN THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. OVERALL...THIS PORTENDS TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH OCCASIONAL
BOUTS OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES IN THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. CERTAINLY NO WASHOUTS EXPECTED GIVEN THIS PATTERN...BUT
WITH DECENT WINDS ALOFT IN PLAY...CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

DETAILS:

DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...THUS ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO START THE PERIOD
WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST.  THIS DRIER REGIME SHOULD ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS
TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH PERHAPS ONE OR TWO SHOWERS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLD POOL AT H5.

SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES ON SATURDAY...WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AGAIN GREATEST IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST SOMEWHAT WITH THE
IMPROVED FORCING.  BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE...THERE IS MODEST AGREEMENT
ON QUIETER CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY SUNDAY IN A BROADLY SUBSIDENT
REGIME WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVERHEAD. THUS...MUCH LIKE
FRIDAY...WILL RESTRICT ANY LOW POPS TO THE MOUNTAINS.

MORE OF THE SAME AS WE REACH MONDAY-TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
DECREASING AGREEMENT ON SHORTWAVE TIMING AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MEMBERS.  THE RESULT...UNFORTUNATELY...IS THAT
ISOLATED/CHANCE POPS WILL BE WARRANTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST /BOTH DUE TO TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT AND PROXIMITY TO MID-UPPER
LEVEL FORCING/.

TEMPERATURES:  TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS FRIDAY...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE ASSISTANCE UNDER WESTERLY WINDS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSE
TO...OR JUST A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...WITH T8S NEARLY STEADY IN
THE LOW TO MID TEENS.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRI/...AREAS OF MVFR OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS
AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 09 AND 12Z TODAY IN PLACES WHICH
RECEIVED RAINFALL EARLIER. VFR PREVAILING TODAY WITH LCL MVFR
PSBL AFT 18Z IN WIDELY SCT SHRA AND TSRA VCNTY OF KAUG AND KRKD.
AREAS MVFR AFT 00Z THU IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN
08 AND 12Z THU.

LONG TERM...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH CONTINUED ISOLATED-SCATTERED
MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS GIVING WAY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE SATURDAY /MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT LEB/HIE/ WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATING ELSEWHERE...AND FOR ALL LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WAVES AND WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH SCA CONDITIONS IN
THE FAR OUTER WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MARGINAL SCA WINDS/WAVES THURSDAY EVENING WILL SUBSIDE
AND REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

HANES/ARNOTT



000
FXUS61 KGYX 290744
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
344 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND...A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL DEBRIS MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND
OVER THE TOP OF RIDGING WHICH IS MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY. WE
ARE SEEING SOME OF THESE CLOUDS WORKING INTO NH AT THIS TIME. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH MUCH OF SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE
EASILY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 90S. ELSEWHERE WE SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST MID 80S. WE FALL SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BUT HIGH
HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE NORM MAY REQUIRE
SOME PEOPLE TO STAY INSIDE TODAY.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. SOME CONVECTION IS ALREADY
MOVING SE INTO CENTRAL NH... THIS EARLY MORNING RAIN WAS NOT
DEPICTED BY MOST MODELS. HOWEVER... MODELS HAVE BEEN PINGING THE
ROCKLAND/CAPITOL DISTRICT FOR A FEW DAYS NOW AS THE SEA BREEZE
SERVES AS ANOTHER TOOL FOR CONVECTION. THIS IS WHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOR THE MOST PART AS WELL AS INTO NORTHERN
NH AND UP TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION DIES DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND TEMPERATURES COOL OFF
SOMEWHAT BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
ARRIVES AHEAD OF DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHING. ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY
DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE.

THE SET UP FOR THURSDAY`S THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS MORE POTENT WITH
BETTER KINEMATICS AND OVERALL FORCING THAN TODAY. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE COULD HAVE EARLY
INITIATION AND STORM MODE WILL BE SUPERCELLULAR. BESIDES HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLASH FLOODING... EHI VALUES AND OTHER SPC
INDICES ARE HIGH FOR ROTATION AND SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS IN PARTS
OF MAINE... INDICATING PLENTY OF SHEAR FOR ROTATION. THIS IS
CONCERNING AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE HAD A TORNADO
SOMEWHERE IN FRANKLIN OR SOMERSET COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY PERIOD
APPEARS TO BE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BOARDER WEST OF
THE GREAT LAKES.  THERE IS GOOD DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
REINVIGORATE LONGWAVE TROUGHING NEAR HUDSON BAY.  THIS PATTERN IS
NOT ALL THAT ABNORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WHILE 500 HPA
HEIGHTS WILL BE A TAD BELOW NORMAL...T8S WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
GIVEN OUR LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS DEVELOPING
LONGWAVE TROUGHING...WE WILL HAVE ACCESS TO ROBUST WINDS ALOFT
WITH THE CORE OF THE JET ALOFT NEARBY...WITH NUMEROUS WEAK
SHORTWAVES IN THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. OVERALL...THIS PORTENDS TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH OCCASIONAL
BOUTS OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES IN THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. CERTAINLY NO WASHOUTS EXPECTED GIVEN THIS PATTERN...BUT
WITH DECENT WINDS ALOFT IN PLAY...CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

DETAILS:

DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...THUS ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO START THE PERIOD
WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST.  THIS DRIER REGIME SHOULD ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS
TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH PERHAPS ONE OR TWO SHOWERS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLD POOL AT H5.

SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES ON SATURDAY...WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AGAIN GREATEST IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST SOMEWHAT WITH THE
IMPROVED FORCING.  BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE...THERE IS MODEST AGREEMENT
ON QUIETER CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY SUNDAY IN A BROADLY SUBSIDENT
REGIME WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVERHEAD. THUS...MUCH LIKE
FRIDAY...WILL RESTRICT ANY LOW POPS TO THE MOUNTAINS.

MORE OF THE SAME AS WE REACH MONDAY-TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
DECREASING AGREEMENT ON SHORTWAVE TIMING AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MEMBERS.  THE RESULT...UNFORTUNATELY...IS THAT
ISOLATED/CHANCE POPS WILL BE WARRANTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST /BOTH DUE TO TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT AND PROXIMITY TO MID-UPPER
LEVEL FORCING/.

TEMPERATURES:  TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS FRIDAY...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE ASSISTANCE UNDER WESTERLY WINDS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSE
TO...OR JUST A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...WITH T8S NEARLY STEADY IN
THE LOW TO MID TEENS.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRI/...AREAS OF MVFR OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS
AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 09 AND 12Z TODAY IN PLACES WHICH
RECEIVED RAINFALL EARLIER. VFR PREVAILING TODAY WITH LCL MVFR
PSBL AFT 18Z IN WIDELY SCT SHRA AND TSRA VCNTY OF KAUG AND KRKD.
AREAS MVFR AFT 00Z THU IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN
08 AND 12Z THU.

LONG TERM...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH CONTINUED ISOLATED-SCATTERED
MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS GIVING WAY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE SATURDAY /MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT LEB/HIE/ WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATING ELSEWHERE...AND FOR ALL LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WAVES AND WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH SCA CONDITIONS IN
THE FAR OUTER WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MARGINAL SCA WINDS/WAVES THURSDAY EVENING WILL SUBSIDE
AND REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

HANES/ARNOTT



000
FXUS61 KGYX 290744
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
344 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND...A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL DEBRIS MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND
OVER THE TOP OF RIDGING WHICH IS MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY. WE
ARE SEEING SOME OF THESE CLOUDS WORKING INTO NH AT THIS TIME. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH MUCH OF SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE
EASILY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 90S. ELSEWHERE WE SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST MID 80S. WE FALL SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BUT HIGH
HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE NORM MAY REQUIRE
SOME PEOPLE TO STAY INSIDE TODAY.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. SOME CONVECTION IS ALREADY
MOVING SE INTO CENTRAL NH... THIS EARLY MORNING RAIN WAS NOT
DEPICTED BY MOST MODELS. HOWEVER... MODELS HAVE BEEN PINGING THE
ROCKLAND/CAPITOL DISTRICT FOR A FEW DAYS NOW AS THE SEA BREEZE
SERVES AS ANOTHER TOOL FOR CONVECTION. THIS IS WHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOR THE MOST PART AS WELL AS INTO NORTHERN
NH AND UP TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION DIES DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND TEMPERATURES COOL OFF
SOMEWHAT BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
ARRIVES AHEAD OF DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHING. ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY
DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE.

THE SET UP FOR THURSDAY`S THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS MORE POTENT WITH
BETTER KINEMATICS AND OVERALL FORCING THAN TODAY. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE COULD HAVE EARLY
INITIATION AND STORM MODE WILL BE SUPERCELLULAR. BESIDES HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLASH FLOODING... EHI VALUES AND OTHER SPC
INDICES ARE HIGH FOR ROTATION AND SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS IN PARTS
OF MAINE... INDICATING PLENTY OF SHEAR FOR ROTATION. THIS IS
CONCERNING AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE HAD A TORNADO
SOMEWHERE IN FRANKLIN OR SOMERSET COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY PERIOD
APPEARS TO BE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BOARDER WEST OF
THE GREAT LAKES.  THERE IS GOOD DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
REINVIGORATE LONGWAVE TROUGHING NEAR HUDSON BAY.  THIS PATTERN IS
NOT ALL THAT ABNORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WHILE 500 HPA
HEIGHTS WILL BE A TAD BELOW NORMAL...T8S WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
GIVEN OUR LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS DEVELOPING
LONGWAVE TROUGHING...WE WILL HAVE ACCESS TO ROBUST WINDS ALOFT
WITH THE CORE OF THE JET ALOFT NEARBY...WITH NUMEROUS WEAK
SHORTWAVES IN THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. OVERALL...THIS PORTENDS TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH OCCASIONAL
BOUTS OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES IN THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. CERTAINLY NO WASHOUTS EXPECTED GIVEN THIS PATTERN...BUT
WITH DECENT WINDS ALOFT IN PLAY...CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

DETAILS:

DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...THUS ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO START THE PERIOD
WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST.  THIS DRIER REGIME SHOULD ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS
TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH PERHAPS ONE OR TWO SHOWERS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLD POOL AT H5.

SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES ON SATURDAY...WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AGAIN GREATEST IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST SOMEWHAT WITH THE
IMPROVED FORCING.  BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE...THERE IS MODEST AGREEMENT
ON QUIETER CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY SUNDAY IN A BROADLY SUBSIDENT
REGIME WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVERHEAD. THUS...MUCH LIKE
FRIDAY...WILL RESTRICT ANY LOW POPS TO THE MOUNTAINS.

MORE OF THE SAME AS WE REACH MONDAY-TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
DECREASING AGREEMENT ON SHORTWAVE TIMING AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MEMBERS.  THE RESULT...UNFORTUNATELY...IS THAT
ISOLATED/CHANCE POPS WILL BE WARRANTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST /BOTH DUE TO TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT AND PROXIMITY TO MID-UPPER
LEVEL FORCING/.

TEMPERATURES:  TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS FRIDAY...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE ASSISTANCE UNDER WESTERLY WINDS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSE
TO...OR JUST A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...WITH T8S NEARLY STEADY IN
THE LOW TO MID TEENS.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRI/...AREAS OF MVFR OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS
AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 09 AND 12Z TODAY IN PLACES WHICH
RECEIVED RAINFALL EARLIER. VFR PREVAILING TODAY WITH LCL MVFR
PSBL AFT 18Z IN WIDELY SCT SHRA AND TSRA VCNTY OF KAUG AND KRKD.
AREAS MVFR AFT 00Z THU IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN
08 AND 12Z THU.

LONG TERM...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH CONTINUED ISOLATED-SCATTERED
MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS GIVING WAY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE SATURDAY /MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT LEB/HIE/ WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATING ELSEWHERE...AND FOR ALL LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WAVES AND WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH SCA CONDITIONS IN
THE FAR OUTER WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MARGINAL SCA WINDS/WAVES THURSDAY EVENING WILL SUBSIDE
AND REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

HANES/ARNOTT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290531
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
131 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED A DEGREE OR TWO BUT ANTICIPATE LOW TEMPS
TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT AS
DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS WELL. THIS
LOW TEMPS/DEWPOINT SPREAD HAS ALLOWED FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE
MASS/RI AND THE ISLANDS. EXPECT FOG TO SLOWLY INCREASE ESP IN
REGIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADV IF VSBYS DROP ANY LOWER...RIGHT NOW
MANY SITES ARE HOLDING AROUND 2-4SM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MANY SITES...HOWEVER
ANTICIPATE PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP DROPPING SOME SITES DOWN
TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR. BEST SPOT WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS
AND SOUTH COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
IFR.

THURSDAY...VFR TO START CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR IN -SHRA/TSRA
BETWEEN 18-00Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS BETWEEN
14-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290531
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
131 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED A DEGREE OR TWO BUT ANTICIPATE LOW TEMPS
TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT AS
DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS WELL. THIS
LOW TEMPS/DEWPOINT SPREAD HAS ALLOWED FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE
MASS/RI AND THE ISLANDS. EXPECT FOG TO SLOWLY INCREASE ESP IN
REGIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADV IF VSBYS DROP ANY LOWER...RIGHT NOW
MANY SITES ARE HOLDING AROUND 2-4SM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MANY SITES...HOWEVER
ANTICIPATE PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP DROPPING SOME SITES DOWN
TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR. BEST SPOT WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS
AND SOUTH COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
IFR.

THURSDAY...VFR TO START CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR IN -SHRA/TSRA
BETWEEN 18-00Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS BETWEEN
14-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290531
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
131 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED A DEGREE OR TWO BUT ANTICIPATE LOW TEMPS
TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT AS
DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS WELL. THIS
LOW TEMPS/DEWPOINT SPREAD HAS ALLOWED FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE
MASS/RI AND THE ISLANDS. EXPECT FOG TO SLOWLY INCREASE ESP IN
REGIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADV IF VSBYS DROP ANY LOWER...RIGHT NOW
MANY SITES ARE HOLDING AROUND 2-4SM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MANY SITES...HOWEVER
ANTICIPATE PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP DROPPING SOME SITES DOWN
TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR. BEST SPOT WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS
AND SOUTH COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
IFR.

THURSDAY...VFR TO START CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR IN -SHRA/TSRA
BETWEEN 18-00Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS BETWEEN
14-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290531
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
131 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED A DEGREE OR TWO BUT ANTICIPATE LOW TEMPS
TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT AS
DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS WELL. THIS
LOW TEMPS/DEWPOINT SPREAD HAS ALLOWED FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE
MASS/RI AND THE ISLANDS. EXPECT FOG TO SLOWLY INCREASE ESP IN
REGIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADV IF VSBYS DROP ANY LOWER...RIGHT NOW
MANY SITES ARE HOLDING AROUND 2-4SM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MANY SITES...HOWEVER
ANTICIPATE PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP DROPPING SOME SITES DOWN
TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR. BEST SPOT WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS
AND SOUTH COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
IFR.

THURSDAY...VFR TO START CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR IN -SHRA/TSRA
BETWEEN 18-00Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS BETWEEN
14-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290531
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
131 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED A DEGREE OR TWO BUT ANTICIPATE LOW TEMPS
TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT AS
DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS WELL. THIS
LOW TEMPS/DEWPOINT SPREAD HAS ALLOWED FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE
MASS/RI AND THE ISLANDS. EXPECT FOG TO SLOWLY INCREASE ESP IN
REGIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADV IF VSBYS DROP ANY LOWER...RIGHT NOW
MANY SITES ARE HOLDING AROUND 2-4SM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MANY SITES...HOWEVER
ANTICIPATE PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP DROPPING SOME SITES DOWN
TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR. BEST SPOT WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS
AND SOUTH COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
IFR.

THURSDAY...VFR TO START CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR IN -SHRA/TSRA
BETWEEN 18-00Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS BETWEEN
14-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290531
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
131 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED A DEGREE OR TWO BUT ANTICIPATE LOW TEMPS
TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT AS
DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS WELL. THIS
LOW TEMPS/DEWPOINT SPREAD HAS ALLOWED FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE
MASS/RI AND THE ISLANDS. EXPECT FOG TO SLOWLY INCREASE ESP IN
REGIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADV IF VSBYS DROP ANY LOWER...RIGHT NOW
MANY SITES ARE HOLDING AROUND 2-4SM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MANY SITES...HOWEVER
ANTICIPATE PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP DROPPING SOME SITES DOWN
TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR. BEST SPOT WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS
AND SOUTH COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
IFR.

THURSDAY...VFR TO START CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR IN -SHRA/TSRA
BETWEEN 18-00Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS BETWEEN
14-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290531
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
131 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED A DEGREE OR TWO BUT ANTICIPATE LOW TEMPS
TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT AS
DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS WELL. THIS
LOW TEMPS/DEWPOINT SPREAD HAS ALLOWED FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE
MASS/RI AND THE ISLANDS. EXPECT FOG TO SLOWLY INCREASE ESP IN
REGIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADV IF VSBYS DROP ANY LOWER...RIGHT NOW
MANY SITES ARE HOLDING AROUND 2-4SM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MANY SITES...HOWEVER
ANTICIPATE PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP DROPPING SOME SITES DOWN
TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR. BEST SPOT WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS
AND SOUTH COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
IFR.

THURSDAY...VFR TO START CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR IN -SHRA/TSRA
BETWEEN 18-00Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS BETWEEN
14-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290531
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
131 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED A DEGREE OR TWO BUT ANTICIPATE LOW TEMPS
TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT AS
DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS WELL. THIS
LOW TEMPS/DEWPOINT SPREAD HAS ALLOWED FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE
MASS/RI AND THE ISLANDS. EXPECT FOG TO SLOWLY INCREASE ESP IN
REGIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADV IF VSBYS DROP ANY LOWER...RIGHT NOW
MANY SITES ARE HOLDING AROUND 2-4SM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MANY SITES...HOWEVER
ANTICIPATE PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP DROPPING SOME SITES DOWN
TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR. BEST SPOT WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS
AND SOUTH COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
IFR.

THURSDAY...VFR TO START CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR IN -SHRA/TSRA
BETWEEN 18-00Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS BETWEEN
14-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KGYX 290445 AAC
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1245 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED WEATHER GRIDS TO INCLUDE FOG IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED RAIN
EARLIER TONIGHT. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO REFLECT MID LEVEL
CLOUD DEBRIS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA RAPIDLY. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

&&

8 PM UPDATE: ALL CONVECTION HAS ENDED WITH AIR MASS STABILIZING.
TOOK OUT ANY CHANCE OF ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG AND OCEAN FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT.  NO OTHER CHANGES.

7 PM UPDATE: NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. INPUT LATEST MESONET DATA.
STILL WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST SO
POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS LOOK GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN
VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT...ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
FORECAST AREA WITH CELLS OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ELSEWHERE...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WIDELY
SCATTERED. CONVECTION SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
EASTWARD TO MID COAST MAINE COULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...A
MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S...BUT
TEMPERED A BIT NEAR THE COAST AS THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE BY
AFTERNOON.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DIE OFF BY LATE EVENING WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB PATTERN BECOMES MORE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED INTO THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK...WITH A TREND BACK TOWARD TOUGHING OVER HUDSON BAY.
HOWEVER...THE WEAK AMPLIFICATION WILL TEND TO KEEP THE COOLER AIR
NORTH OF THE BORDER AND ALLOW WARM AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NEW
ENGLAND...SO TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.
ALSO...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL SEE SEVERAL
WAVES MOVE THRU THE FLOW...WHICH WILL MEAN A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA...MOSTLY FOCUSED AROUND MAX DAYTIME HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS. THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A LOT OF
CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH...BUT NO DAY IS LIKELY TO BE A
WASHOUT...AND AN OVERALL DRIER PATTERN WILL PERSIST.

SPECIFICALLY A COLD FRONT COMES THRU LATE THU AND WILL PRODUCE
SOME SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY THU AFT INTO EVE. PRE-FRONTAL SHOULD START
THE DAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST...AND THIS WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
PWM...WHERE HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO 80. INLAND AREAS TO THE S AND
W OF PORTLAND WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ONCE
AGAIN WITH THIS FRONT...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SEE T/TD DROP OFF SOME ON FRIDAY...AND SFC
RIDGING WILL KEEP THINGS DRY...BUT HIGHS STILL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S IN THE S...AND LOW 80S IN THE MTNS AND ON THE COAST.

GENERALLY HAVE AFTERNOON CHC POPS IN THE N AND SLY POPS TOWARD THE
COAST BOTH SAT AND SUN AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THRU THE ALMOST ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE. FLOW SHIFTS MORE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THINGS WARM UP A BIT AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 11Z THU/...AREAS OF MVFR OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS
AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 06 AND 12Z WEDNESDAY. VFR WED WITH
LCL MVFR PSBL AFT 18Z IN WIDELY SCT SHRA AND TSRA VCNTY OF KAUG
AND KRKD. AREAS MVFR AFT 00Z THU IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR
PSBL BTWN 08 AND 12Z THU.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THU-SUN. TSRA A GOOD BET THU
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT INLAND TERMINALS. MAY SEE A BREAK FROM
VLY FOG THU NIGHT...BUT SHOULD RETURN FRI AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...WEAK FLOW WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THU THRU SUN...AND
KEEP SEAS/WINDS COMFORTABLY BLO SCA LVLS. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AS SW FLOW SURGES A HEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AND COULD APPROACH SCA BRIEFLY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 290445 AAC
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1245 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED WEATHER GRIDS TO INCLUDE FOG IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED RAIN
EARLIER TONIGHT. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO REFLECT MID LEVEL
CLOUD DEBRIS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA RAPIDLY. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

&&

8 PM UPDATE: ALL CONVECTION HAS ENDED WITH AIR MASS STABILIZING.
TOOK OUT ANY CHANCE OF ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG AND OCEAN FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT.  NO OTHER CHANGES.

7 PM UPDATE: NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. INPUT LATEST MESONET DATA.
STILL WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST SO
POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS LOOK GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN
VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT...ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
FORECAST AREA WITH CELLS OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ELSEWHERE...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WIDELY
SCATTERED. CONVECTION SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
EASTWARD TO MID COAST MAINE COULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...A
MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S...BUT
TEMPERED A BIT NEAR THE COAST AS THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE BY
AFTERNOON.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DIE OFF BY LATE EVENING WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB PATTERN BECOMES MORE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED INTO THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK...WITH A TREND BACK TOWARD TOUGHING OVER HUDSON BAY.
HOWEVER...THE WEAK AMPLIFICATION WILL TEND TO KEEP THE COOLER AIR
NORTH OF THE BORDER AND ALLOW WARM AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NEW
ENGLAND...SO TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.
ALSO...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL SEE SEVERAL
WAVES MOVE THRU THE FLOW...WHICH WILL MEAN A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA...MOSTLY FOCUSED AROUND MAX DAYTIME HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS. THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A LOT OF
CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH...BUT NO DAY IS LIKELY TO BE A
WASHOUT...AND AN OVERALL DRIER PATTERN WILL PERSIST.

SPECIFICALLY A COLD FRONT COMES THRU LATE THU AND WILL PRODUCE
SOME SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY THU AFT INTO EVE. PRE-FRONTAL SHOULD START
THE DAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST...AND THIS WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
PWM...WHERE HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO 80. INLAND AREAS TO THE S AND
W OF PORTLAND WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ONCE
AGAIN WITH THIS FRONT...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SEE T/TD DROP OFF SOME ON FRIDAY...AND SFC
RIDGING WILL KEEP THINGS DRY...BUT HIGHS STILL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S IN THE S...AND LOW 80S IN THE MTNS AND ON THE COAST.

GENERALLY HAVE AFTERNOON CHC POPS IN THE N AND SLY POPS TOWARD THE
COAST BOTH SAT AND SUN AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THRU THE ALMOST ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE. FLOW SHIFTS MORE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THINGS WARM UP A BIT AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 11Z THU/...AREAS OF MVFR OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS
AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 06 AND 12Z WEDNESDAY. VFR WED WITH
LCL MVFR PSBL AFT 18Z IN WIDELY SCT SHRA AND TSRA VCNTY OF KAUG
AND KRKD. AREAS MVFR AFT 00Z THU IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR
PSBL BTWN 08 AND 12Z THU.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THU-SUN. TSRA A GOOD BET THU
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT INLAND TERMINALS. MAY SEE A BREAK FROM
VLY FOG THU NIGHT...BUT SHOULD RETURN FRI AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...WEAK FLOW WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THU THRU SUN...AND
KEEP SEAS/WINDS COMFORTABLY BLO SCA LVLS. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AS SW FLOW SURGES A HEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AND COULD APPROACH SCA BRIEFLY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290202
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1002 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. BIGGEST ISSUE TONIGHT
IS THE HUMID AIRMASS WHICH WILL INCREASE THE FOG POTENTIAL ESP
FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY. SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED DOWN TO A MILE OR LESS...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADV.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE OUTLYING
LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF
DOWNTOWN BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MANY SITES...HOWEVER
ANTICIPATE PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP DROPPING SOME SITES DOWN
TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR. BEST SPOT WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS
AND SOUTH COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR IN FOG IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW PROB THAT MVFR-IFR IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER 18Z...THEN
SHIFTING E BY EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290202
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1002 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. BIGGEST ISSUE TONIGHT
IS THE HUMID AIRMASS WHICH WILL INCREASE THE FOG POTENTIAL ESP
FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY. SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED DOWN TO A MILE OR LESS...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADV.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE OUTLYING
LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF
DOWNTOWN BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MANY SITES...HOWEVER
ANTICIPATE PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP DROPPING SOME SITES DOWN
TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR. BEST SPOT WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS
AND SOUTH COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR IN FOG IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW PROB THAT MVFR-IFR IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER 18Z...THEN
SHIFTING E BY EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 282357
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
757 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
8 PM UPDATE: ALL CONVECTION HAS ENDED WITH AIR MASS STABILIZING.
TOOK OUT ANY CHANCE OF ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG AND OCEAN FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT.  NO OTHER CHANGES.

7 PM UPDATE: NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. INPUT LATEST MESONET DATA.
STILL WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST SO
POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS LOOK GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN
VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT...ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
FORECAST AREA WITH CELLS OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ELSEWHERE...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WIDELY
SCATTERED. CONVECTION SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
EASTWARD TO MID COAST MAINE COULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...A
MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S...BUT
TEMPERED A BIT NEAR THE COAST AS THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE BY
AFTERNOON.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DIE OFF BY LATE EVENING WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB PATTERN BECOMES MORE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED INTO THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK...WITH A TREND BACK TOWARD TOUGHING OVER HUDSON BAY.
HOWEVER...THE WEAK AMPLIFICATION WILL TEND TO KEEP THE COOLER AIR
NORTH OF THE BORDER AND ALLOW WARM AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NEW
ENGLAND...SO TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.
ALSO...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL SEE SEVERAL
WAVES MOVE THRU THE FLOW...WHICH WILL MEAN A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA...MOSTLY FOCUSED AROUND MAX DAYTIME HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS. THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A LOT OF
CHC POPS...ESECIALLY IN THE NORTH...BUT NO DAY IS LIKELY TO BE A
WASHOUT...AND AN OVERALL DRIER PATTERN WILL PERSIST.

SPECIFICALLY A COLD FRONT COMES THRU LATE THU AND WILL PRODUCE
SOME SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY THU AFT INTO EVE. PRE-FRONTAL SHOULD START
THE DAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST...AND THIS WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
PWM...WHERE HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO 80. INLAND AREAS TO THE S AND
W OF PORTLAND WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ONCE
AGAIN WITH THIS FRONT...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SEE T/TD DROP OFF SOME ON FRIDAY...AND SFC
RIDGING WILL KEEP THINGS DRY...BUT HIGHS STILL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S IN THE S...AND LOW 80S IN THE MTNS AND ON THE COAST.

GENERALLY HAVE AFTERNOON CHC POPS IN THE N AND SLY POPS TOWARD THE
COAST BOTH SAT AND SUN AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THRU THE ALMOST ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE. FLOW SHIFTS MORE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THINGS WARM UP A BIT AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 11Z THU/...AREAS OF MVFR OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS
AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 06 AND 12Z WEDNESDAY. VFR WED WITH
LCL MVFR PSBL AFT 18Z IN WIDELY SCT SHRA AND TSRA VCNTY OF KAUG
AND KRKD. AREAS MVFR AFT 00Z THU IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR
PSBL BTWN 08 AND 12Z THU.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THU-SUN. TSRA A GOOD BET THU
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT INLAND TERMINALS. MAY SEE A BREAK FROM
VLY FOG THU NIGHT...BUT SHOULD RETURN FRI AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...WEAK FLOW WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THU THRU SUN...AND
KEEP SEAS/WINDS COMFORTABLY BLO SCA LVLS. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AS SW FLOW SURGES A HEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AND COULD APPROACH SCA BRIEFLY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE





000
FXUS61 KGYX 282357
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
757 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
8 PM UPDATE: ALL CONVECTION HAS ENDED WITH AIR MASS STABILIZING.
TOOK OUT ANY CHANCE OF ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG AND OCEAN FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT.  NO OTHER CHANGES.

7 PM UPDATE: NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. INPUT LATEST MESONET DATA.
STILL WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST SO
POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS LOOK GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN
VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT...ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
FORECAST AREA WITH CELLS OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ELSEWHERE...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WIDELY
SCATTERED. CONVECTION SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
EASTWARD TO MID COAST MAINE COULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...A
MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S...BUT
TEMPERED A BIT NEAR THE COAST AS THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE BY
AFTERNOON.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DIE OFF BY LATE EVENING WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB PATTERN BECOMES MORE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED INTO THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK...WITH A TREND BACK TOWARD TOUGHING OVER HUDSON BAY.
HOWEVER...THE WEAK AMPLIFICATION WILL TEND TO KEEP THE COOLER AIR
NORTH OF THE BORDER AND ALLOW WARM AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NEW
ENGLAND...SO TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.
ALSO...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL SEE SEVERAL
WAVES MOVE THRU THE FLOW...WHICH WILL MEAN A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA...MOSTLY FOCUSED AROUND MAX DAYTIME HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS. THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A LOT OF
CHC POPS...ESECIALLY IN THE NORTH...BUT NO DAY IS LIKELY TO BE A
WASHOUT...AND AN OVERALL DRIER PATTERN WILL PERSIST.

SPECIFICALLY A COLD FRONT COMES THRU LATE THU AND WILL PRODUCE
SOME SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY THU AFT INTO EVE. PRE-FRONTAL SHOULD START
THE DAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST...AND THIS WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
PWM...WHERE HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO 80. INLAND AREAS TO THE S AND
W OF PORTLAND WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ONCE
AGAIN WITH THIS FRONT...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SEE T/TD DROP OFF SOME ON FRIDAY...AND SFC
RIDGING WILL KEEP THINGS DRY...BUT HIGHS STILL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S IN THE S...AND LOW 80S IN THE MTNS AND ON THE COAST.

GENERALLY HAVE AFTERNOON CHC POPS IN THE N AND SLY POPS TOWARD THE
COAST BOTH SAT AND SUN AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THRU THE ALMOST ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE. FLOW SHIFTS MORE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THINGS WARM UP A BIT AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 11Z THU/...AREAS OF MVFR OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS
AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 06 AND 12Z WEDNESDAY. VFR WED WITH
LCL MVFR PSBL AFT 18Z IN WIDELY SCT SHRA AND TSRA VCNTY OF KAUG
AND KRKD. AREAS MVFR AFT 00Z THU IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR
PSBL BTWN 08 AND 12Z THU.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THU-SUN. TSRA A GOOD BET THU
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT INLAND TERMINALS. MAY SEE A BREAK FROM
VLY FOG THU NIGHT...BUT SHOULD RETURN FRI AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...WEAK FLOW WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THU THRU SUN...AND
KEEP SEAS/WINDS COMFORTABLY BLO SCA LVLS. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AS SW FLOW SURGES A HEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AND COULD APPROACH SCA BRIEFLY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 282357
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
757 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
8 PM UPDATE: ALL CONVECTION HAS ENDED WITH AIR MASS STABILIZING.
TOOK OUT ANY CHANCE OF ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG AND OCEAN FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT.  NO OTHER CHANGES.

7 PM UPDATE: NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. INPUT LATEST MESONET DATA.
STILL WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST SO
POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS LOOK GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN
VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT...ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
FORECAST AREA WITH CELLS OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ELSEWHERE...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WIDELY
SCATTERED. CONVECTION SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
EASTWARD TO MID COAST MAINE COULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...A
MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S...BUT
TEMPERED A BIT NEAR THE COAST AS THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE BY
AFTERNOON.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DIE OFF BY LATE EVENING WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB PATTERN BECOMES MORE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED INTO THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK...WITH A TREND BACK TOWARD TOUGHING OVER HUDSON BAY.
HOWEVER...THE WEAK AMPLIFICATION WILL TEND TO KEEP THE COOLER AIR
NORTH OF THE BORDER AND ALLOW WARM AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NEW
ENGLAND...SO TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.
ALSO...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL SEE SEVERAL
WAVES MOVE THRU THE FLOW...WHICH WILL MEAN A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA...MOSTLY FOCUSED AROUND MAX DAYTIME HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS. THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A LOT OF
CHC POPS...ESECIALLY IN THE NORTH...BUT NO DAY IS LIKELY TO BE A
WASHOUT...AND AN OVERALL DRIER PATTERN WILL PERSIST.

SPECIFICALLY A COLD FRONT COMES THRU LATE THU AND WILL PRODUCE
SOME SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY THU AFT INTO EVE. PRE-FRONTAL SHOULD START
THE DAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST...AND THIS WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
PWM...WHERE HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO 80. INLAND AREAS TO THE S AND
W OF PORTLAND WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ONCE
AGAIN WITH THIS FRONT...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SEE T/TD DROP OFF SOME ON FRIDAY...AND SFC
RIDGING WILL KEEP THINGS DRY...BUT HIGHS STILL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S IN THE S...AND LOW 80S IN THE MTNS AND ON THE COAST.

GENERALLY HAVE AFTERNOON CHC POPS IN THE N AND SLY POPS TOWARD THE
COAST BOTH SAT AND SUN AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THRU THE ALMOST ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE. FLOW SHIFTS MORE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THINGS WARM UP A BIT AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 11Z THU/...AREAS OF MVFR OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS
AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 06 AND 12Z WEDNESDAY. VFR WED WITH
LCL MVFR PSBL AFT 18Z IN WIDELY SCT SHRA AND TSRA VCNTY OF KAUG
AND KRKD. AREAS MVFR AFT 00Z THU IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR
PSBL BTWN 08 AND 12Z THU.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THU-SUN. TSRA A GOOD BET THU
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT INLAND TERMINALS. MAY SEE A BREAK FROM
VLY FOG THU NIGHT...BUT SHOULD RETURN FRI AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...WEAK FLOW WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THU THRU SUN...AND
KEEP SEAS/WINDS COMFORTABLY BLO SCA LVLS. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AS SW FLOW SURGES A HEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AND COULD APPROACH SCA BRIEFLY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE





000
FXUS61 KGYX 282357
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
757 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
8 PM UPDATE: ALL CONVECTION HAS ENDED WITH AIR MASS STABILIZING.
TOOK OUT ANY CHANCE OF ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG AND OCEAN FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT.  NO OTHER CHANGES.

7 PM UPDATE: NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. INPUT LATEST MESONET DATA.
STILL WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST SO
POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS LOOK GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN
VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT...ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
FORECAST AREA WITH CELLS OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ELSEWHERE...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WIDELY
SCATTERED. CONVECTION SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
EASTWARD TO MID COAST MAINE COULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...A
MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S...BUT
TEMPERED A BIT NEAR THE COAST AS THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE BY
AFTERNOON.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DIE OFF BY LATE EVENING WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB PATTERN BECOMES MORE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED INTO THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK...WITH A TREND BACK TOWARD TOUGHING OVER HUDSON BAY.
HOWEVER...THE WEAK AMPLIFICATION WILL TEND TO KEEP THE COOLER AIR
NORTH OF THE BORDER AND ALLOW WARM AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NEW
ENGLAND...SO TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.
ALSO...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL SEE SEVERAL
WAVES MOVE THRU THE FLOW...WHICH WILL MEAN A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA...MOSTLY FOCUSED AROUND MAX DAYTIME HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS. THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A LOT OF
CHC POPS...ESECIALLY IN THE NORTH...BUT NO DAY IS LIKELY TO BE A
WASHOUT...AND AN OVERALL DRIER PATTERN WILL PERSIST.

SPECIFICALLY A COLD FRONT COMES THRU LATE THU AND WILL PRODUCE
SOME SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY THU AFT INTO EVE. PRE-FRONTAL SHOULD START
THE DAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST...AND THIS WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
PWM...WHERE HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO 80. INLAND AREAS TO THE S AND
W OF PORTLAND WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ONCE
AGAIN WITH THIS FRONT...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SEE T/TD DROP OFF SOME ON FRIDAY...AND SFC
RIDGING WILL KEEP THINGS DRY...BUT HIGHS STILL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S IN THE S...AND LOW 80S IN THE MTNS AND ON THE COAST.

GENERALLY HAVE AFTERNOON CHC POPS IN THE N AND SLY POPS TOWARD THE
COAST BOTH SAT AND SUN AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THRU THE ALMOST ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE. FLOW SHIFTS MORE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THINGS WARM UP A BIT AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 11Z THU/...AREAS OF MVFR OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS
AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 06 AND 12Z WEDNESDAY. VFR WED WITH
LCL MVFR PSBL AFT 18Z IN WIDELY SCT SHRA AND TSRA VCNTY OF KAUG
AND KRKD. AREAS MVFR AFT 00Z THU IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR
PSBL BTWN 08 AND 12Z THU.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THU-SUN. TSRA A GOOD BET THU
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT INLAND TERMINALS. MAY SEE A BREAK FROM
VLY FOG THU NIGHT...BUT SHOULD RETURN FRI AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...WEAK FLOW WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THU THRU SUN...AND
KEEP SEAS/WINDS COMFORTABLY BLO SCA LVLS. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AS SW FLOW SURGES A HEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AND COULD APPROACH SCA BRIEFLY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282352
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
752 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

730 PM UPDATE...

LAST OF WEAKENING SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF THE RI COAST AND IN THE
VICINITY OF KBID AT 2330Z. THE ISOLD SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED INLAND
W OF KORH AND NEAR KBED HAVE ALSO MOSTLY DISSIPATED. NOTING
LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION HANGING ACROSS INTERIOR
MA/RI/NE CT ON LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. SHOULD SEE THOSE
CLOUDS TEND TO DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...MORE CLOUDS MOVE MAY TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE N-NW FLOW ALOFT OUT OF N NEW ENGLAND AND
UPSTATE NY OVERNIGHT.

NOTING LOW CLOUDS ALREADY AT KACK...SO WILL LIKELY SEE LOW CLOUDS
EXPAND ALONG THE S COAST IN THE SOUPY AIRMASS. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN FELL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE OUTLYING
LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF
DOWNTOWN BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. WILL
LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ALONG S COAST AND TYPICALLY PRONE
INLAND LOCATIONS WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS. MAY ALSO SEE IFR-LIFR
CIGS MAINLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.


ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 7 OR 8 PM.  OTHERWISE...VFR FOR MOST SITES
EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS FAR SE MASS
INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE BOSTON TERMINAL...BUT
STILL A LOW RISK THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 8 PM

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.  VERY
LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THROUGH 8 PM.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR IN FOG IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW PROB THAT MVFR-IFR IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER 18Z...THEN
SHIFTING E BY EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282352
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
752 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

730 PM UPDATE...

LAST OF WEAKENING SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF THE RI COAST AND IN THE
VICINITY OF KBID AT 2330Z. THE ISOLD SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED INLAND
W OF KORH AND NEAR KBED HAVE ALSO MOSTLY DISSIPATED. NOTING
LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION HANGING ACROSS INTERIOR
MA/RI/NE CT ON LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. SHOULD SEE THOSE
CLOUDS TEND TO DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...MORE CLOUDS MOVE MAY TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE N-NW FLOW ALOFT OUT OF N NEW ENGLAND AND
UPSTATE NY OVERNIGHT.

NOTING LOW CLOUDS ALREADY AT KACK...SO WILL LIKELY SEE LOW CLOUDS
EXPAND ALONG THE S COAST IN THE SOUPY AIRMASS. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN FELL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE OUTLYING
LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF
DOWNTOWN BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. WILL
LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ALONG S COAST AND TYPICALLY PRONE
INLAND LOCATIONS WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS. MAY ALSO SEE IFR-LIFR
CIGS MAINLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.


ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 7 OR 8 PM.  OTHERWISE...VFR FOR MOST SITES
EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS FAR SE MASS
INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE BOSTON TERMINAL...BUT
STILL A LOW RISK THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 8 PM

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.  VERY
LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THROUGH 8 PM.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR IN FOG IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW PROB THAT MVFR-IFR IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER 18Z...THEN
SHIFTING E BY EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282352
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
752 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

730 PM UPDATE...

LAST OF WEAKENING SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF THE RI COAST AND IN THE
VICINITY OF KBID AT 2330Z. THE ISOLD SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED INLAND
W OF KORH AND NEAR KBED HAVE ALSO MOSTLY DISSIPATED. NOTING
LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION HANGING ACROSS INTERIOR
MA/RI/NE CT ON LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. SHOULD SEE THOSE
CLOUDS TEND TO DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...MORE CLOUDS MOVE MAY TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE N-NW FLOW ALOFT OUT OF N NEW ENGLAND AND
UPSTATE NY OVERNIGHT.

NOTING LOW CLOUDS ALREADY AT KACK...SO WILL LIKELY SEE LOW CLOUDS
EXPAND ALONG THE S COAST IN THE SOUPY AIRMASS. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN FELL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE OUTLYING
LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF
DOWNTOWN BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. WILL
LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ALONG S COAST AND TYPICALLY PRONE
INLAND LOCATIONS WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS. MAY ALSO SEE IFR-LIFR
CIGS MAINLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.


ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 7 OR 8 PM.  OTHERWISE...VFR FOR MOST SITES
EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS FAR SE MASS
INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE BOSTON TERMINAL...BUT
STILL A LOW RISK THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 8 PM

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.  VERY
LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THROUGH 8 PM.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR IN FOG IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW PROB THAT MVFR-IFR IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER 18Z...THEN
SHIFTING E BY EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282352
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
752 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

730 PM UPDATE...

LAST OF WEAKENING SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF THE RI COAST AND IN THE
VICINITY OF KBID AT 2330Z. THE ISOLD SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED INLAND
W OF KORH AND NEAR KBED HAVE ALSO MOSTLY DISSIPATED. NOTING
LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION HANGING ACROSS INTERIOR
MA/RI/NE CT ON LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. SHOULD SEE THOSE
CLOUDS TEND TO DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...MORE CLOUDS MOVE MAY TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE N-NW FLOW ALOFT OUT OF N NEW ENGLAND AND
UPSTATE NY OVERNIGHT.

NOTING LOW CLOUDS ALREADY AT KACK...SO WILL LIKELY SEE LOW CLOUDS
EXPAND ALONG THE S COAST IN THE SOUPY AIRMASS. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN FELL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE OUTLYING
LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF
DOWNTOWN BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. WILL
LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ALONG S COAST AND TYPICALLY PRONE
INLAND LOCATIONS WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS. MAY ALSO SEE IFR-LIFR
CIGS MAINLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.


ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 7 OR 8 PM.  OTHERWISE...VFR FOR MOST SITES
EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS FAR SE MASS
INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE BOSTON TERMINAL...BUT
STILL A LOW RISK THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 8 PM

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.  VERY
LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THROUGH 8 PM.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR IN FOG IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW PROB THAT MVFR-IFR IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER 18Z...THEN
SHIFTING E BY EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 282307
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
707 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE: NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. INPUT LATEST MESONET DATA.
STILL WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST SO
POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS LOOK GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN
VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT...ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
FORECAST AREA WITH CELLS OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ELSEWHERE...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WIDELY
SCATTERED. CONVECTION SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
EASTWARD TO MID COAST MAINE COULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...A
MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S...BUT
TEMPERED A BIT NEAR THE COAST AS THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE BY
AFTERNOON.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DIE OFF BY LATE EVENING WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB PATTERN BECOMES MORE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED INTO THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK...WITH A TREND BACK TOWARD TOUGHING OVER HUDSON BAY.
HOWEVER...THE WEAK AMPLIFICATION WILL TEND TO KEEP THE COOLER AIR
NORTH OF THE BORDER AND ALLOW WARM AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NEW
ENGLAND...SO TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.
ALSO...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL SEE SEVERAL
WAVES MOVE THRU THE FLOW...WHICH WILL MEAN A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA...MOSTLY FOCUSED AROUND MAX DAYTIME HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS. THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A LOT OF
CHC POPS...ESECIALLY IN THE NORTH...BUT NO DAY IS LIKELY TO BE A
WASHOUT...AND AN OVERALL DRIER PATTERN WILL PERSIST.

SPECIFICALLY A COLD FRONT COMES THRU LATE THU AND WILL PRODUCE
SOME SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY THU AFT INTO EVE. PRE-FRONTAL SHOULD START
THE DAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST...AND THIS WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
PWM...WHERE HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO 80. INLAND AREAS TO THE S AND
W OF PORTLAND WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ONCE
AGAIN WITH THIS FRONT...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SEE T/TD DROP OFF SOME ON FRIDAY...AND SFC
RIDGING WILL KEEP THINGS DRY...BUT HIGHS STILL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S IN THE S...AND LOW 80S IN THE MTNS AND ON THE COAST.

GENERALLY HAVE AFTERNOON CHC POPS IN THE N AND SLY POPS TOWARD THE
COAST BOTH SAT AND SUN AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THRU THE ALMOST ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE. FLOW SHIFTS MORE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THINGS WARM UP A BIT AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 11Z THU/...SCT MVFR IN SHRA WITH BRIEF LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA. AREAS OF MVFR OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH
LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 08 AND 12Z WEDNESDAY. VFR WED WITH LCL MVFR PSBL
AFT 18Z IN WIDELY SCT SHRA AND TSRA VCNTY OF KAUG AND KRKD. AREAS
MVFR AFT 00Z THU IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 08 AND
12Z THU.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THU-SUN. TSRA A GOOD BET THU
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT INLAND TERMINALS. MAY SEE A BREAK FROM
VLY FOG THU NIGHT...BUT SHOULD RETURN FRI AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...WEAK FLOW WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THU THRU SUN...AND
KEEP SEAS/WINDS COMFORTABLY BLO SCA LVLS. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AS SW FLOW SURGES A HEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AND COULD APPROACH SCA BRIEFLY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 282307
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
707 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE: NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. INPUT LATEST MESONET DATA.
STILL WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST SO
POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS LOOK GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN
VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT...ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
FORECAST AREA WITH CELLS OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ELSEWHERE...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WIDELY
SCATTERED. CONVECTION SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
EASTWARD TO MID COAST MAINE COULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...A
MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S...BUT
TEMPERED A BIT NEAR THE COAST AS THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE BY
AFTERNOON.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DIE OFF BY LATE EVENING WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB PATTERN BECOMES MORE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED INTO THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK...WITH A TREND BACK TOWARD TOUGHING OVER HUDSON BAY.
HOWEVER...THE WEAK AMPLIFICATION WILL TEND TO KEEP THE COOLER AIR
NORTH OF THE BORDER AND ALLOW WARM AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NEW
ENGLAND...SO TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.
ALSO...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL SEE SEVERAL
WAVES MOVE THRU THE FLOW...WHICH WILL MEAN A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA...MOSTLY FOCUSED AROUND MAX DAYTIME HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS. THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A LOT OF
CHC POPS...ESECIALLY IN THE NORTH...BUT NO DAY IS LIKELY TO BE A
WASHOUT...AND AN OVERALL DRIER PATTERN WILL PERSIST.

SPECIFICALLY A COLD FRONT COMES THRU LATE THU AND WILL PRODUCE
SOME SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY THU AFT INTO EVE. PRE-FRONTAL SHOULD START
THE DAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST...AND THIS WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
PWM...WHERE HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO 80. INLAND AREAS TO THE S AND
W OF PORTLAND WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ONCE
AGAIN WITH THIS FRONT...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SEE T/TD DROP OFF SOME ON FRIDAY...AND SFC
RIDGING WILL KEEP THINGS DRY...BUT HIGHS STILL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S IN THE S...AND LOW 80S IN THE MTNS AND ON THE COAST.

GENERALLY HAVE AFTERNOON CHC POPS IN THE N AND SLY POPS TOWARD THE
COAST BOTH SAT AND SUN AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THRU THE ALMOST ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE. FLOW SHIFTS MORE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THINGS WARM UP A BIT AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 11Z THU/...SCT MVFR IN SHRA WITH BRIEF LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA. AREAS OF MVFR OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH
LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 08 AND 12Z WEDNESDAY. VFR WED WITH LCL MVFR PSBL
AFT 18Z IN WIDELY SCT SHRA AND TSRA VCNTY OF KAUG AND KRKD. AREAS
MVFR AFT 00Z THU IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 08 AND
12Z THU.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THU-SUN. TSRA A GOOD BET THU
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT INLAND TERMINALS. MAY SEE A BREAK FROM
VLY FOG THU NIGHT...BUT SHOULD RETURN FRI AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...WEAK FLOW WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THU THRU SUN...AND
KEEP SEAS/WINDS COMFORTABLY BLO SCA LVLS. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AS SW FLOW SURGES A HEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AND COULD APPROACH SCA BRIEFLY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 282307
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
707 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE: NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. INPUT LATEST MESONET DATA.
STILL WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST SO
POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS LOOK GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN
VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT...ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
FORECAST AREA WITH CELLS OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ELSEWHERE...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WIDELY
SCATTERED. CONVECTION SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
EASTWARD TO MID COAST MAINE COULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...A
MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S...BUT
TEMPERED A BIT NEAR THE COAST AS THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE BY
AFTERNOON.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DIE OFF BY LATE EVENING WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB PATTERN BECOMES MORE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED INTO THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK...WITH A TREND BACK TOWARD TOUGHING OVER HUDSON BAY.
HOWEVER...THE WEAK AMPLIFICATION WILL TEND TO KEEP THE COOLER AIR
NORTH OF THE BORDER AND ALLOW WARM AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NEW
ENGLAND...SO TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.
ALSO...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL SEE SEVERAL
WAVES MOVE THRU THE FLOW...WHICH WILL MEAN A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA...MOSTLY FOCUSED AROUND MAX DAYTIME HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS. THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A LOT OF
CHC POPS...ESECIALLY IN THE NORTH...BUT NO DAY IS LIKELY TO BE A
WASHOUT...AND AN OVERALL DRIER PATTERN WILL PERSIST.

SPECIFICALLY A COLD FRONT COMES THRU LATE THU AND WILL PRODUCE
SOME SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY THU AFT INTO EVE. PRE-FRONTAL SHOULD START
THE DAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST...AND THIS WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
PWM...WHERE HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO 80. INLAND AREAS TO THE S AND
W OF PORTLAND WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ONCE
AGAIN WITH THIS FRONT...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SEE T/TD DROP OFF SOME ON FRIDAY...AND SFC
RIDGING WILL KEEP THINGS DRY...BUT HIGHS STILL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S IN THE S...AND LOW 80S IN THE MTNS AND ON THE COAST.

GENERALLY HAVE AFTERNOON CHC POPS IN THE N AND SLY POPS TOWARD THE
COAST BOTH SAT AND SUN AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THRU THE ALMOST ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE. FLOW SHIFTS MORE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THINGS WARM UP A BIT AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 11Z THU/...SCT MVFR IN SHRA WITH BRIEF LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA. AREAS OF MVFR OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH
LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 08 AND 12Z WEDNESDAY. VFR WED WITH LCL MVFR PSBL
AFT 18Z IN WIDELY SCT SHRA AND TSRA VCNTY OF KAUG AND KRKD. AREAS
MVFR AFT 00Z THU IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 08 AND
12Z THU.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THU-SUN. TSRA A GOOD BET THU
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT INLAND TERMINALS. MAY SEE A BREAK FROM
VLY FOG THU NIGHT...BUT SHOULD RETURN FRI AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...WEAK FLOW WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THU THRU SUN...AND
KEEP SEAS/WINDS COMFORTABLY BLO SCA LVLS. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AS SW FLOW SURGES A HEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AND COULD APPROACH SCA BRIEFLY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 282307
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
707 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE: NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. INPUT LATEST MESONET DATA.
STILL WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST SO
POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS LOOK GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN
VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT...ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
FORECAST AREA WITH CELLS OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ELSEWHERE...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WIDELY
SCATTERED. CONVECTION SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
EASTWARD TO MID COAST MAINE COULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...A
MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S...BUT
TEMPERED A BIT NEAR THE COAST AS THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE BY
AFTERNOON.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DIE OFF BY LATE EVENING WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB PATTERN BECOMES MORE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED INTO THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK...WITH A TREND BACK TOWARD TOUGHING OVER HUDSON BAY.
HOWEVER...THE WEAK AMPLIFICATION WILL TEND TO KEEP THE COOLER AIR
NORTH OF THE BORDER AND ALLOW WARM AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NEW
ENGLAND...SO TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.
ALSO...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL SEE SEVERAL
WAVES MOVE THRU THE FLOW...WHICH WILL MEAN A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA...MOSTLY FOCUSED AROUND MAX DAYTIME HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS. THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A LOT OF
CHC POPS...ESECIALLY IN THE NORTH...BUT NO DAY IS LIKELY TO BE A
WASHOUT...AND AN OVERALL DRIER PATTERN WILL PERSIST.

SPECIFICALLY A COLD FRONT COMES THRU LATE THU AND WILL PRODUCE
SOME SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY THU AFT INTO EVE. PRE-FRONTAL SHOULD START
THE DAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST...AND THIS WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
PWM...WHERE HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO 80. INLAND AREAS TO THE S AND
W OF PORTLAND WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ONCE
AGAIN WITH THIS FRONT...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SEE T/TD DROP OFF SOME ON FRIDAY...AND SFC
RIDGING WILL KEEP THINGS DRY...BUT HIGHS STILL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S IN THE S...AND LOW 80S IN THE MTNS AND ON THE COAST.

GENERALLY HAVE AFTERNOON CHC POPS IN THE N AND SLY POPS TOWARD THE
COAST BOTH SAT AND SUN AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THRU THE ALMOST ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE. FLOW SHIFTS MORE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THINGS WARM UP A BIT AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 11Z THU/...SCT MVFR IN SHRA WITH BRIEF LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA. AREAS OF MVFR OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH
LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 08 AND 12Z WEDNESDAY. VFR WED WITH LCL MVFR PSBL
AFT 18Z IN WIDELY SCT SHRA AND TSRA VCNTY OF KAUG AND KRKD. AREAS
MVFR AFT 00Z THU IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 08 AND
12Z THU.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THU-SUN. TSRA A GOOD BET THU
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT INLAND TERMINALS. MAY SEE A BREAK FROM
VLY FOG THU NIGHT...BUT SHOULD RETURN FRI AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...WEAK FLOW WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THU THRU SUN...AND
KEEP SEAS/WINDS COMFORTABLY BLO SCA LVLS. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AS SW FLOW SURGES A HEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AND COULD APPROACH SCA BRIEFLY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 282307
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
707 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE: NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. INPUT LATEST MESONET DATA.
STILL WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST SO
POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS LOOK GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN
VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT...ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
FORECAST AREA WITH CELLS OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ELSEWHERE...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WIDELY
SCATTERED. CONVECTION SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
EASTWARD TO MID COAST MAINE COULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...A
MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S...BUT
TEMPERED A BIT NEAR THE COAST AS THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE BY
AFTERNOON.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DIE OFF BY LATE EVENING WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB PATTERN BECOMES MORE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED INTO THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK...WITH A TREND BACK TOWARD TOUGHING OVER HUDSON BAY.
HOWEVER...THE WEAK AMPLIFICATION WILL TEND TO KEEP THE COOLER AIR
NORTH OF THE BORDER AND ALLOW WARM AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NEW
ENGLAND...SO TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.
ALSO...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL SEE SEVERAL
WAVES MOVE THRU THE FLOW...WHICH WILL MEAN A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA...MOSTLY FOCUSED AROUND MAX DAYTIME HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS. THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A LOT OF
CHC POPS...ESECIALLY IN THE NORTH...BUT NO DAY IS LIKELY TO BE A
WASHOUT...AND AN OVERALL DRIER PATTERN WILL PERSIST.

SPECIFICALLY A COLD FRONT COMES THRU LATE THU AND WILL PRODUCE
SOME SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY THU AFT INTO EVE. PRE-FRONTAL SHOULD START
THE DAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST...AND THIS WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
PWM...WHERE HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO 80. INLAND AREAS TO THE S AND
W OF PORTLAND WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ONCE
AGAIN WITH THIS FRONT...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SEE T/TD DROP OFF SOME ON FRIDAY...AND SFC
RIDGING WILL KEEP THINGS DRY...BUT HIGHS STILL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S IN THE S...AND LOW 80S IN THE MTNS AND ON THE COAST.

GENERALLY HAVE AFTERNOON CHC POPS IN THE N AND SLY POPS TOWARD THE
COAST BOTH SAT AND SUN AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THRU THE ALMOST ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE. FLOW SHIFTS MORE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THINGS WARM UP A BIT AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 11Z THU/...SCT MVFR IN SHRA WITH BRIEF LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA. AREAS OF MVFR OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH
LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 08 AND 12Z WEDNESDAY. VFR WED WITH LCL MVFR PSBL
AFT 18Z IN WIDELY SCT SHRA AND TSRA VCNTY OF KAUG AND KRKD. AREAS
MVFR AFT 00Z THU IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 08 AND
12Z THU.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THU-SUN. TSRA A GOOD BET THU
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT INLAND TERMINALS. MAY SEE A BREAK FROM
VLY FOG THU NIGHT...BUT SHOULD RETURN FRI AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...WEAK FLOW WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THU THRU SUN...AND
KEEP SEAS/WINDS COMFORTABLY BLO SCA LVLS. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AS SW FLOW SURGES A HEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AND COULD APPROACH SCA BRIEFLY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 282307
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
707 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE: NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. INPUT LATEST MESONET DATA.
STILL WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST SO
POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS LOOK GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN
VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT...ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
FORECAST AREA WITH CELLS OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ELSEWHERE...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WIDELY
SCATTERED. CONVECTION SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
EASTWARD TO MID COAST MAINE COULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...A
MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S...BUT
TEMPERED A BIT NEAR THE COAST AS THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE BY
AFTERNOON.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DIE OFF BY LATE EVENING WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB PATTERN BECOMES MORE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED INTO THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK...WITH A TREND BACK TOWARD TOUGHING OVER HUDSON BAY.
HOWEVER...THE WEAK AMPLIFICATION WILL TEND TO KEEP THE COOLER AIR
NORTH OF THE BORDER AND ALLOW WARM AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NEW
ENGLAND...SO TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.
ALSO...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL SEE SEVERAL
WAVES MOVE THRU THE FLOW...WHICH WILL MEAN A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA...MOSTLY FOCUSED AROUND MAX DAYTIME HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS. THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A LOT OF
CHC POPS...ESECIALLY IN THE NORTH...BUT NO DAY IS LIKELY TO BE A
WASHOUT...AND AN OVERALL DRIER PATTERN WILL PERSIST.

SPECIFICALLY A COLD FRONT COMES THRU LATE THU AND WILL PRODUCE
SOME SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY THU AFT INTO EVE. PRE-FRONTAL SHOULD START
THE DAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST...AND THIS WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
PWM...WHERE HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO 80. INLAND AREAS TO THE S AND
W OF PORTLAND WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ONCE
AGAIN WITH THIS FRONT...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SEE T/TD DROP OFF SOME ON FRIDAY...AND SFC
RIDGING WILL KEEP THINGS DRY...BUT HIGHS STILL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S IN THE S...AND LOW 80S IN THE MTNS AND ON THE COAST.

GENERALLY HAVE AFTERNOON CHC POPS IN THE N AND SLY POPS TOWARD THE
COAST BOTH SAT AND SUN AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THRU THE ALMOST ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE. FLOW SHIFTS MORE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THINGS WARM UP A BIT AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 11Z THU/...SCT MVFR IN SHRA WITH BRIEF LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA. AREAS OF MVFR OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH
LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 08 AND 12Z WEDNESDAY. VFR WED WITH LCL MVFR PSBL
AFT 18Z IN WIDELY SCT SHRA AND TSRA VCNTY OF KAUG AND KRKD. AREAS
MVFR AFT 00Z THU IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 08 AND
12Z THU.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THU-SUN. TSRA A GOOD BET THU
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT INLAND TERMINALS. MAY SEE A BREAK FROM
VLY FOG THU NIGHT...BUT SHOULD RETURN FRI AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...WEAK FLOW WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THU THRU SUN...AND
KEEP SEAS/WINDS COMFORTABLY BLO SCA LVLS. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AS SW FLOW SURGES A HEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AND COULD APPROACH SCA BRIEFLY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282111
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
510 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

5 PM MESOSCALE UPDATE...

WE ARE MONITORING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE TIVERTON...MELVILLE AND NEWPORT
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE NEXT 30 TO 45 MINUTES.  ALSO...HEAVY
RAINFALL HAS RESULTED IN POCKETS OF URBAN/STREET FLOODING IN THE
MARION AND FALL RIVER AREAS.

THE STORMS ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF RHODE ISLAND/MASSACHUSETTS
WERE THE PRETTY MUCH THE ONLY SHOW IN TOWN.  WE STILL HAVE TO
WATCH A FEW THINGS THROUGH 7 OR 8 PM.  THE FIRST IS THE SEA BREEZE
FRONT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MA.  THE OTHER IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHWEST RI AND CENTRAL MA.  WINDOW IS GETTING
SHORTER...BUT STILL FAIRLY UNSTABLE SO CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FIRING ON ONE OF THE BOUNDARIES.

AFTER 7 OR 8 PM...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT.  WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  LOW TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS WITH
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES ON THE ISLANDS.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
BUT HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.  ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...SO MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY.  BULK
OF ACTION SHOULD BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MA...RHODE ISLAND AND
PERHAPS FAR EASTERN CT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 7 OR 8 PM.  OTHERWISE...VFR FOR MOST SITES
EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS FAR SE MASS
INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE BOSTON TERMINAL...BUT
STILL A LOW RISK THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 8 PM

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.  VERY
LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THROUGH 8 PM.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR IN FOG IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW PROB THAT MVFR-IFR IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER 18Z...THEN
SHIFTING E BY EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 282111
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
510 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

5 PM MESOSCALE UPDATE...

WE ARE MONITORING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE TIVERTON...MELVILLE AND NEWPORT
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE NEXT 30 TO 45 MINUTES.  ALSO...HEAVY
RAINFALL HAS RESULTED IN POCKETS OF URBAN/STREET FLOODING IN THE
MARION AND FALL RIVER AREAS.

THE STORMS ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF RHODE ISLAND/MASSACHUSETTS
WERE THE PRETTY MUCH THE ONLY SHOW IN TOWN.  WE STILL HAVE TO
WATCH A FEW THINGS THROUGH 7 OR 8 PM.  THE FIRST IS THE SEA BREEZE
FRONT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MA.  THE OTHER IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHWEST RI AND CENTRAL MA.  WINDOW IS GETTING
SHORTER...BUT STILL FAIRLY UNSTABLE SO CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FIRING ON ONE OF THE BOUNDARIES.

AFTER 7 OR 8 PM...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT.  WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  LOW TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS WITH
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES ON THE ISLANDS.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
BUT HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.  ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...SO MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY.  BULK
OF ACTION SHOULD BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MA...RHODE ISLAND AND
PERHAPS FAR EASTERN CT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 7 OR 8 PM.  OTHERWISE...VFR FOR MOST SITES
EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS FAR SE MASS
INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE BOSTON TERMINAL...BUT
STILL A LOW RISK THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 8 PM

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.  VERY
LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THROUGH 8 PM.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR IN FOG IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW PROB THAT MVFR-IFR IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER 18Z...THEN
SHIFTING E BY EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282056
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
456 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY
  CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MA INTO RHODE ISLAND AND PERHAPS FAR EASTERN
  CT***

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING RESULTING IN MLCAPES
OF 1500 TO 2000...SOME SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW INTERSECTIONS AND A
SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION.  WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRED ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES EARLIER...MAIN FOCUS FOR
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MA...AS WELL AS RHODE
ISLAND AND PERHAPS INTO FAR EASTERN CT.  THIS FROM SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH TERRAIN INFLUENCES.  A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY
7 OR 8 PM OR SO THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...HEIGHTS RISE AND
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.

OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.  WILL
LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON AND
PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES ON THE ISLANDS.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
BUT HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.  ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...SO MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY.  BULK
OF ACTION SHOULD BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MA...RHODE ISLAND AND
PERHAPS FAR EASTERN CT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 7 OR 8 PM.  OTHERWISE...VFR FOR MOST SITES
EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS FAR SE MASS
INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE BOSTON TERMINAL...BUT
STILL A LOW RISK THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 8 PM

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.  VERY
LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THROUGH 8 PM.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR IN FOG IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW PROB THAT MVFR-IFR IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER 18Z...THEN
SHIFTING E BY EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282056
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
456 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY
  CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MA INTO RHODE ISLAND AND PERHAPS FAR EASTERN
  CT***

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING RESULTING IN MLCAPES
OF 1500 TO 2000...SOME SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW INTERSECTIONS AND A
SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION.  WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRED ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES EARLIER...MAIN FOCUS FOR
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MA...AS WELL AS RHODE
ISLAND AND PERHAPS INTO FAR EASTERN CT.  THIS FROM SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH TERRAIN INFLUENCES.  A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY
7 OR 8 PM OR SO THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...HEIGHTS RISE AND
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.

OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.  WILL
LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON AND
PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES ON THE ISLANDS.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
BUT HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.  ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...SO MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY.  BULK
OF ACTION SHOULD BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MA...RHODE ISLAND AND
PERHAPS FAR EASTERN CT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 7 OR 8 PM.  OTHERWISE...VFR FOR MOST SITES
EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS FAR SE MASS
INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE BOSTON TERMINAL...BUT
STILL A LOW RISK THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 8 PM

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.  VERY
LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THROUGH 8 PM.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR IN FOG IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW PROB THAT MVFR-IFR IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER 18Z...THEN
SHIFTING E BY EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282056
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
456 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY
  CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MA INTO RHODE ISLAND AND PERHAPS FAR EASTERN
  CT***

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING RESULTING IN MLCAPES
OF 1500 TO 2000...SOME SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW INTERSECTIONS AND A
SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION.  WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRED ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES EARLIER...MAIN FOCUS FOR
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MA...AS WELL AS RHODE
ISLAND AND PERHAPS INTO FAR EASTERN CT.  THIS FROM SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH TERRAIN INFLUENCES.  A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY
7 OR 8 PM OR SO THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...HEIGHTS RISE AND
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.

OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.  WILL
LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON AND
PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES ON THE ISLANDS.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
BUT HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.  ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...SO MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY.  BULK
OF ACTION SHOULD BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MA...RHODE ISLAND AND
PERHAPS FAR EASTERN CT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 7 OR 8 PM.  OTHERWISE...VFR FOR MOST SITES
EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS FAR SE MASS
INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE BOSTON TERMINAL...BUT
STILL A LOW RISK THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 8 PM

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.  VERY
LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THROUGH 8 PM.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR IN FOG IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW PROB THAT MVFR-IFR IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER 18Z...THEN
SHIFTING E BY EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282056
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
456 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY
  CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MA INTO RHODE ISLAND AND PERHAPS FAR EASTERN
  CT***

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING RESULTING IN MLCAPES
OF 1500 TO 2000...SOME SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW INTERSECTIONS AND A
SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION.  WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRED ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES EARLIER...MAIN FOCUS FOR
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MA...AS WELL AS RHODE
ISLAND AND PERHAPS INTO FAR EASTERN CT.  THIS FROM SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH TERRAIN INFLUENCES.  A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY
7 OR 8 PM OR SO THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...HEIGHTS RISE AND
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.

OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.  WILL
LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON AND
PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES ON THE ISLANDS.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
BUT HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.  ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...SO MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY.  BULK
OF ACTION SHOULD BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MA...RHODE ISLAND AND
PERHAPS FAR EASTERN CT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 7 OR 8 PM.  OTHERWISE...VFR FOR MOST SITES
EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS FAR SE MASS
INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE BOSTON TERMINAL...BUT
STILL A LOW RISK THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 8 PM

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.  VERY
LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THROUGH 8 PM.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR IN FOG IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW PROB THAT MVFR-IFR IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER 18Z...THEN
SHIFTING E BY EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282021
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
421 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY
  CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MA INTO RHODE ISLAND AND PERHAPS FAR EASTERN
  CT***

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING RESULTING IN MLCAPES
OF 1500 TO 2000...SOME SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW INTERSECTIONS AND A
SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION.  WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRED ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES EARLIER...MAIN FOCUS FOR
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MA...AS WELL AS RHODE
ISLAND AND PERHAPS INTO FAR EASTERN CT.  THIS FROM SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH TERRAIN INFLUENCES.  A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY
7 OR 8 PM OR SO THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...HEIGHTS RISE AND
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.

OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.  WILL
LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON AND
PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM AND HUMID THU
* SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THU/THU NIGHT
* DRIER/LESS HUMID FRI THRU MON BUT STILL WARM

WED NIGHT/THU/THU NIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT
INTO THU. THUS DRY WEATHER TO START THIS PERIOD HOWEVER THE RISK OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS INCREASES LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS POTENT
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CURRENTLY EXITING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINS TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST.
APPEARS TIMING OF THE FRONT COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WELL AFTER
PEAKING HEATING. THIS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SHEAR KEEPS THE RISK
LOW FOR STRONG CONVECTION LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. HOWEVER GOOD
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THIS TROUGH SUGGEST AT LEAST SHOWERS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. PWATS ABOVE NORMAL AND DEW PTS 65 TO 70 WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH STILL 2 DAYS AWAY WILL NEED TO
MONITOR LATER MODEL TRENDS.

OTHERWISE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. A MODEL BLEND OFFERS HIGHS U80S TO L90S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW/VORTEX SETS UP OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAY THIS TIME
PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND MEAN TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL /HIGHS MU80S/ AND LOWS IN THE 60S ALONG WITH TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY AS DEW PTS AVERAGE IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM JET SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THERE WILL BE THE RISK OF SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES. NOT A WASHOUT BUT THE
RISK OF CONVECTION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES ON THE ISLANDS.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
BUT HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.  ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...SO MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY.  BULK
OF ACTION SHOULD BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MA...RHODE ISLAND AND
PERHAPS FAR EASTERN CT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 7 OR 8 PM.  OTHERWISE...VFR FOR MOST SITES
EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS FAR SE MASS
INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE BOSTON TERMINAL...BUT
STILL A LOW RISK THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 8 PM

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.  VERY
LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THROUGH 8 PM.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NGT/THU...PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG WED NGT BUT QUICKLY IMPROVING
TO VFR THU MORNING. LOW PROB THAT MVFR/IFR IN STRATUS LINGERS ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST THU. THEN UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICK THIS FOG/STRATUS
BURNS OFF SOUTH COAST.

THU NIGHT...VFR-MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE.

FRI AND SAT...VFR LIKELY. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NIGHT AND THU...FAIRLY TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS. POSSIBLE PATCHY
FOG IN HUMID AIRMASS.

THU NIGHT...MODEST SSW WIND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE.

FRI AND SAT...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
MAY ENTER THE WATERS SAT. WSW WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282021
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
421 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY
  CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MA INTO RHODE ISLAND AND PERHAPS FAR EASTERN
  CT***

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING RESULTING IN MLCAPES
OF 1500 TO 2000...SOME SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW INTERSECTIONS AND A
SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION.  WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRED ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES EARLIER...MAIN FOCUS FOR
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MA...AS WELL AS RHODE
ISLAND AND PERHAPS INTO FAR EASTERN CT.  THIS FROM SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH TERRAIN INFLUENCES.  A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY
7 OR 8 PM OR SO THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...HEIGHTS RISE AND
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.

OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.  WILL
LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON AND
PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM AND HUMID THU
* SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THU/THU NIGHT
* DRIER/LESS HUMID FRI THRU MON BUT STILL WARM

WED NIGHT/THU/THU NIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT
INTO THU. THUS DRY WEATHER TO START THIS PERIOD HOWEVER THE RISK OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS INCREASES LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS POTENT
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CURRENTLY EXITING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINS TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST.
APPEARS TIMING OF THE FRONT COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WELL AFTER
PEAKING HEATING. THIS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SHEAR KEEPS THE RISK
LOW FOR STRONG CONVECTION LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. HOWEVER GOOD
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THIS TROUGH SUGGEST AT LEAST SHOWERS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. PWATS ABOVE NORMAL AND DEW PTS 65 TO 70 WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH STILL 2 DAYS AWAY WILL NEED TO
MONITOR LATER MODEL TRENDS.

OTHERWISE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. A MODEL BLEND OFFERS HIGHS U80S TO L90S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW/VORTEX SETS UP OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAY THIS TIME
PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND MEAN TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL /HIGHS MU80S/ AND LOWS IN THE 60S ALONG WITH TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY AS DEW PTS AVERAGE IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM JET SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THERE WILL BE THE RISK OF SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES. NOT A WASHOUT BUT THE
RISK OF CONVECTION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES ON THE ISLANDS.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
BUT HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.  ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...SO MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY.  BULK
OF ACTION SHOULD BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MA...RHODE ISLAND AND
PERHAPS FAR EASTERN CT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 7 OR 8 PM.  OTHERWISE...VFR FOR MOST SITES
EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS FAR SE MASS
INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE BOSTON TERMINAL...BUT
STILL A LOW RISK THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 8 PM

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.  VERY
LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THROUGH 8 PM.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NGT/THU...PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG WED NGT BUT QUICKLY IMPROVING
TO VFR THU MORNING. LOW PROB THAT MVFR/IFR IN STRATUS LINGERS ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST THU. THEN UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICK THIS FOG/STRATUS
BURNS OFF SOUTH COAST.

THU NIGHT...VFR-MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE.

FRI AND SAT...VFR LIKELY. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NIGHT AND THU...FAIRLY TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS. POSSIBLE PATCHY
FOG IN HUMID AIRMASS.

THU NIGHT...MODEST SSW WIND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE.

FRI AND SAT...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
MAY ENTER THE WATERS SAT. WSW WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282021
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
421 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY
  CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MA INTO RHODE ISLAND AND PERHAPS FAR EASTERN
  CT***

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING RESULTING IN MLCAPES
OF 1500 TO 2000...SOME SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW INTERSECTIONS AND A
SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION.  WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRED ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES EARLIER...MAIN FOCUS FOR
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MA...AS WELL AS RHODE
ISLAND AND PERHAPS INTO FAR EASTERN CT.  THIS FROM SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH TERRAIN INFLUENCES.  A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY
7 OR 8 PM OR SO THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...HEIGHTS RISE AND
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.

OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.  WILL
LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON AND
PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM AND HUMID THU
* SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THU/THU NIGHT
* DRIER/LESS HUMID FRI THRU MON BUT STILL WARM

WED NIGHT/THU/THU NIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT
INTO THU. THUS DRY WEATHER TO START THIS PERIOD HOWEVER THE RISK OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS INCREASES LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS POTENT
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CURRENTLY EXITING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINS TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST.
APPEARS TIMING OF THE FRONT COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WELL AFTER
PEAKING HEATING. THIS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SHEAR KEEPS THE RISK
LOW FOR STRONG CONVECTION LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. HOWEVER GOOD
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THIS TROUGH SUGGEST AT LEAST SHOWERS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. PWATS ABOVE NORMAL AND DEW PTS 65 TO 70 WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH STILL 2 DAYS AWAY WILL NEED TO
MONITOR LATER MODEL TRENDS.

OTHERWISE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. A MODEL BLEND OFFERS HIGHS U80S TO L90S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW/VORTEX SETS UP OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAY THIS TIME
PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND MEAN TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL /HIGHS MU80S/ AND LOWS IN THE 60S ALONG WITH TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY AS DEW PTS AVERAGE IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM JET SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THERE WILL BE THE RISK OF SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES. NOT A WASHOUT BUT THE
RISK OF CONVECTION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES ON THE ISLANDS.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
BUT HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.  ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...SO MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY.  BULK
OF ACTION SHOULD BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MA...RHODE ISLAND AND
PERHAPS FAR EASTERN CT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 7 OR 8 PM.  OTHERWISE...VFR FOR MOST SITES
EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS FAR SE MASS
INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE BOSTON TERMINAL...BUT
STILL A LOW RISK THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 8 PM

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.  VERY
LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THROUGH 8 PM.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NGT/THU...PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG WED NGT BUT QUICKLY IMPROVING
TO VFR THU MORNING. LOW PROB THAT MVFR/IFR IN STRATUS LINGERS ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST THU. THEN UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICK THIS FOG/STRATUS
BURNS OFF SOUTH COAST.

THU NIGHT...VFR-MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE.

FRI AND SAT...VFR LIKELY. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NIGHT AND THU...FAIRLY TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS. POSSIBLE PATCHY
FOG IN HUMID AIRMASS.

THU NIGHT...MODEST SSW WIND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE.

FRI AND SAT...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
MAY ENTER THE WATERS SAT. WSW WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282021
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
421 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY
  CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MA INTO RHODE ISLAND AND PERHAPS FAR EASTERN
  CT***

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING RESULTING IN MLCAPES
OF 1500 TO 2000...SOME SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW INTERSECTIONS AND A
SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION.  WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRED ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES EARLIER...MAIN FOCUS FOR
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MA...AS WELL AS RHODE
ISLAND AND PERHAPS INTO FAR EASTERN CT.  THIS FROM SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH TERRAIN INFLUENCES.  A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY
7 OR 8 PM OR SO THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...HEIGHTS RISE AND
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.

OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.  WILL
LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON AND
PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM AND HUMID THU
* SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THU/THU NIGHT
* DRIER/LESS HUMID FRI THRU MON BUT STILL WARM

WED NIGHT/THU/THU NIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT
INTO THU. THUS DRY WEATHER TO START THIS PERIOD HOWEVER THE RISK OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS INCREASES LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS POTENT
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CURRENTLY EXITING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINS TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST.
APPEARS TIMING OF THE FRONT COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WELL AFTER
PEAKING HEATING. THIS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SHEAR KEEPS THE RISK
LOW FOR STRONG CONVECTION LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. HOWEVER GOOD
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THIS TROUGH SUGGEST AT LEAST SHOWERS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. PWATS ABOVE NORMAL AND DEW PTS 65 TO 70 WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH STILL 2 DAYS AWAY WILL NEED TO
MONITOR LATER MODEL TRENDS.

OTHERWISE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. A MODEL BLEND OFFERS HIGHS U80S TO L90S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW/VORTEX SETS UP OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAY THIS TIME
PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND MEAN TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL /HIGHS MU80S/ AND LOWS IN THE 60S ALONG WITH TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY AS DEW PTS AVERAGE IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM JET SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THERE WILL BE THE RISK OF SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES. NOT A WASHOUT BUT THE
RISK OF CONVECTION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES ON THE ISLANDS.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
BUT HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.  ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...SO MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY.  BULK
OF ACTION SHOULD BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MA...RHODE ISLAND AND
PERHAPS FAR EASTERN CT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 7 OR 8 PM.  OTHERWISE...VFR FOR MOST SITES
EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS FAR SE MASS
INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE BOSTON TERMINAL...BUT
STILL A LOW RISK THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 8 PM

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.  VERY
LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THROUGH 8 PM.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NGT/THU...PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG WED NGT BUT QUICKLY IMPROVING
TO VFR THU MORNING. LOW PROB THAT MVFR/IFR IN STRATUS LINGERS ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST THU. THEN UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICK THIS FOG/STRATUS
BURNS OFF SOUTH COAST.

THU NIGHT...VFR-MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE.

FRI AND SAT...VFR LIKELY. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NIGHT AND THU...FAIRLY TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS. POSSIBLE PATCHY
FOG IN HUMID AIRMASS.

THU NIGHT...MODEST SSW WIND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE.

FRI AND SAT...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
MAY ENTER THE WATERS SAT. WSW WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281905
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
305 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN
VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT...ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
FORECAST AREA WITH CELLS OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ELSEWHERE...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WIDELY
SCATTERED. CONVECTION SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
EASTWARD TO MID COAST MAINE COULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...A
MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S...BUT
TEMPERED A BIT NEAR THE COAST AS THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE BY
AFTERNOON.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DIE OFF BY LATE EVENING WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB PATTERN BECOMES MORE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED INTO THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK...WITH A TREND BACK TOWARD TOUGHING OVER HUDSON BAY.
HOWEVER...THE WEAK AMPLIFICATION WILL TEND TO KEEP THE COOLER AIR
NORTH OF THE BORDER AND ALLOW WARM AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NEW
ENGLAND...SO TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.
ALSO...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL SEE SEVERAL
WAVES MOVE THRU THE FLOW...WHICH WILL MEAN A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA...MOSTLY FOCUSED AROUND MAX DAYTIME HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS. THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A LOT OF
CHC POPS...ESECIALLY IN THE NORTH...BUT NO DAY IS LIKELY TO BE A
WASHOUT...AND AN OVERALL DRIER PATTERN WILL PERSIST.

SPECIFICALLY A COLD FRONT COMES THRU LATE THU AND WILL PRODUCE
SOME SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY THU AFT INTO EVE. PRE-FRONTAL SHOULD START
THE DAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST...AND THIS WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
PWM...WHERE HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO 80. INLAND AREAS TO THE S AND
W OF PORTLAND WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ONCE
AGAIN WITH THIS FRONT...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SEE T/TD DROP OFF SOME ON FRIDAY...AND SFC
RIDGING WILL KEEP THINGS DRY...BUT HIGHS STILL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S IN THE S...AND LOW 80S IN THE MTNS AND ON THE COAST.

GENERALLY HAVE AFTERNOON CHC POPS IN THE N AND SLY POPS TOWARD THE
COAST BOTH SAT AND SUN AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THRU THE ALMOST ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE. FLOW SHIFTS MORE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THINGS WARM UP A BIT AGAIN.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 11Z THU/...SCT MVFR IN SHRA WITH BRIEF LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA. AREAS OF MVFR OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH
LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 08 AND 12Z WEDNESDAY. VFR WED WITH LCL MVFR PSBL
AFT 18Z IN WIDELY SCT SHRA AND TSRA VCNTY OF KAUG AND KRKD. AREAS
MVFR AFT 00Z THU IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 08 AND
12Z THU.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THU-SUN. TSRA A GOOD BET THU
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT INLAND TERMINALS. MAY SEE A BREAK FROM
VLY FOG THU NIGHT...BUT SHOULD RETURN FRI AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...WEAK FLOW WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THU THRU SUN...AND
KEEP SEAS/WINDS COMFORTABLY BLO SCA LVLS. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AS SW FLOW SURGES A HEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AND COULD APPROACH SCA BRIEFLY.


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281905
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
305 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN
VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT...ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
FORECAST AREA WITH CELLS OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ELSEWHERE...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WIDELY
SCATTERED. CONVECTION SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
EASTWARD TO MID COAST MAINE COULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...A
MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S...BUT
TEMPERED A BIT NEAR THE COAST AS THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE BY
AFTERNOON.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DIE OFF BY LATE EVENING WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB PATTERN BECOMES MORE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED INTO THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK...WITH A TREND BACK TOWARD TOUGHING OVER HUDSON BAY.
HOWEVER...THE WEAK AMPLIFICATION WILL TEND TO KEEP THE COOLER AIR
NORTH OF THE BORDER AND ALLOW WARM AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NEW
ENGLAND...SO TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.
ALSO...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL SEE SEVERAL
WAVES MOVE THRU THE FLOW...WHICH WILL MEAN A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA...MOSTLY FOCUSED AROUND MAX DAYTIME HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS. THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A LOT OF
CHC POPS...ESECIALLY IN THE NORTH...BUT NO DAY IS LIKELY TO BE A
WASHOUT...AND AN OVERALL DRIER PATTERN WILL PERSIST.

SPECIFICALLY A COLD FRONT COMES THRU LATE THU AND WILL PRODUCE
SOME SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY THU AFT INTO EVE. PRE-FRONTAL SHOULD START
THE DAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST...AND THIS WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
PWM...WHERE HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO 80. INLAND AREAS TO THE S AND
W OF PORTLAND WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ONCE
AGAIN WITH THIS FRONT...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SEE T/TD DROP OFF SOME ON FRIDAY...AND SFC
RIDGING WILL KEEP THINGS DRY...BUT HIGHS STILL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S IN THE S...AND LOW 80S IN THE MTNS AND ON THE COAST.

GENERALLY HAVE AFTERNOON CHC POPS IN THE N AND SLY POPS TOWARD THE
COAST BOTH SAT AND SUN AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THRU THE ALMOST ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE. FLOW SHIFTS MORE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THINGS WARM UP A BIT AGAIN.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 11Z THU/...SCT MVFR IN SHRA WITH BRIEF LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA. AREAS OF MVFR OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH
LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 08 AND 12Z WEDNESDAY. VFR WED WITH LCL MVFR PSBL
AFT 18Z IN WIDELY SCT SHRA AND TSRA VCNTY OF KAUG AND KRKD. AREAS
MVFR AFT 00Z THU IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 08 AND
12Z THU.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THU-SUN. TSRA A GOOD BET THU
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT INLAND TERMINALS. MAY SEE A BREAK FROM
VLY FOG THU NIGHT...BUT SHOULD RETURN FRI AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...WEAK FLOW WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THU THRU SUN...AND
KEEP SEAS/WINDS COMFORTABLY BLO SCA LVLS. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AS SW FLOW SURGES A HEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AND COULD APPROACH SCA BRIEFLY.


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281905
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
305 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN
VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT...ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
FORECAST AREA WITH CELLS OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ELSEWHERE...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WIDELY
SCATTERED. CONVECTION SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
EASTWARD TO MID COAST MAINE COULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...A
MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S...BUT
TEMPERED A BIT NEAR THE COAST AS THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE BY
AFTERNOON.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DIE OFF BY LATE EVENING WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB PATTERN BECOMES MORE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED INTO THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK...WITH A TREND BACK TOWARD TOUGHING OVER HUDSON BAY.
HOWEVER...THE WEAK AMPLIFICATION WILL TEND TO KEEP THE COOLER AIR
NORTH OF THE BORDER AND ALLOW WARM AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NEW
ENGLAND...SO TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.
ALSO...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL SEE SEVERAL
WAVES MOVE THRU THE FLOW...WHICH WILL MEAN A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA...MOSTLY FOCUSED AROUND MAX DAYTIME HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS. THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A LOT OF
CHC POPS...ESECIALLY IN THE NORTH...BUT NO DAY IS LIKELY TO BE A
WASHOUT...AND AN OVERALL DRIER PATTERN WILL PERSIST.

SPECIFICALLY A COLD FRONT COMES THRU LATE THU AND WILL PRODUCE
SOME SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY THU AFT INTO EVE. PRE-FRONTAL SHOULD START
THE DAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST...AND THIS WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
PWM...WHERE HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO 80. INLAND AREAS TO THE S AND
W OF PORTLAND WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ONCE
AGAIN WITH THIS FRONT...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SEE T/TD DROP OFF SOME ON FRIDAY...AND SFC
RIDGING WILL KEEP THINGS DRY...BUT HIGHS STILL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S IN THE S...AND LOW 80S IN THE MTNS AND ON THE COAST.

GENERALLY HAVE AFTERNOON CHC POPS IN THE N AND SLY POPS TOWARD THE
COAST BOTH SAT AND SUN AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THRU THE ALMOST ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE. FLOW SHIFTS MORE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THINGS WARM UP A BIT AGAIN.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 11Z THU/...SCT MVFR IN SHRA WITH BRIEF LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA. AREAS OF MVFR OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH
LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 08 AND 12Z WEDNESDAY. VFR WED WITH LCL MVFR PSBL
AFT 18Z IN WIDELY SCT SHRA AND TSRA VCNTY OF KAUG AND KRKD. AREAS
MVFR AFT 00Z THU IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 08 AND
12Z THU.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THU-SUN. TSRA A GOOD BET THU
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT INLAND TERMINALS. MAY SEE A BREAK FROM
VLY FOG THU NIGHT...BUT SHOULD RETURN FRI AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...WEAK FLOW WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THU THRU SUN...AND
KEEP SEAS/WINDS COMFORTABLY BLO SCA LVLS. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AS SW FLOW SURGES A HEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AND COULD APPROACH SCA BRIEFLY.


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281905
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
305 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN
VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT...ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
FORECAST AREA WITH CELLS OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ELSEWHERE...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WIDELY
SCATTERED. CONVECTION SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
EASTWARD TO MID COAST MAINE COULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...A
MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S...BUT
TEMPERED A BIT NEAR THE COAST AS THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE BY
AFTERNOON.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DIE OFF BY LATE EVENING WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB PATTERN BECOMES MORE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED INTO THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK...WITH A TREND BACK TOWARD TOUGHING OVER HUDSON BAY.
HOWEVER...THE WEAK AMPLIFICATION WILL TEND TO KEEP THE COOLER AIR
NORTH OF THE BORDER AND ALLOW WARM AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NEW
ENGLAND...SO TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.
ALSO...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL SEE SEVERAL
WAVES MOVE THRU THE FLOW...WHICH WILL MEAN A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA...MOSTLY FOCUSED AROUND MAX DAYTIME HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS. THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A LOT OF
CHC POPS...ESECIALLY IN THE NORTH...BUT NO DAY IS LIKELY TO BE A
WASHOUT...AND AN OVERALL DRIER PATTERN WILL PERSIST.

SPECIFICALLY A COLD FRONT COMES THRU LATE THU AND WILL PRODUCE
SOME SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY THU AFT INTO EVE. PRE-FRONTAL SHOULD START
THE DAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST...AND THIS WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
PWM...WHERE HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO 80. INLAND AREAS TO THE S AND
W OF PORTLAND WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ONCE
AGAIN WITH THIS FRONT...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SEE T/TD DROP OFF SOME ON FRIDAY...AND SFC
RIDGING WILL KEEP THINGS DRY...BUT HIGHS STILL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S IN THE S...AND LOW 80S IN THE MTNS AND ON THE COAST.

GENERALLY HAVE AFTERNOON CHC POPS IN THE N AND SLY POPS TOWARD THE
COAST BOTH SAT AND SUN AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THRU THE ALMOST ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE. FLOW SHIFTS MORE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THINGS WARM UP A BIT AGAIN.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 11Z THU/...SCT MVFR IN SHRA WITH BRIEF LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA. AREAS OF MVFR OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH
LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 08 AND 12Z WEDNESDAY. VFR WED WITH LCL MVFR PSBL
AFT 18Z IN WIDELY SCT SHRA AND TSRA VCNTY OF KAUG AND KRKD. AREAS
MVFR AFT 00Z THU IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 08 AND
12Z THU.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THU-SUN. TSRA A GOOD BET THU
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT INLAND TERMINALS. MAY SEE A BREAK FROM
VLY FOG THU NIGHT...BUT SHOULD RETURN FRI AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...WEAK FLOW WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THU THRU SUN...AND
KEEP SEAS/WINDS COMFORTABLY BLO SCA LVLS. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AS SW FLOW SURGES A HEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AND COULD APPROACH SCA BRIEFLY.


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281805
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND POSSIBLY
RHODE ISLAND TODAY. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
  EVENING MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND BUT CAN NOT RULE
  ONE OUT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH SOME TERRAIN INTERACTION***

2 PM UPDATE...

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  LATEST SPC MESO-ANALYSIS
SHOWS 2000 TO 3000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OVER 50
KNOTS ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE
HIGHEST RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST MA AND INTO RHODE ISLAND.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE ONE OUT ANYWHERE AS A RESULT OF
SOME TERRAIN INTERACTION.  WE ARE WATCHING ONE STRONG STORM RIGHT
NOW IN NORTHWEST MA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1030 AM...

OVERALL...A RATHER COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN SETUP ON CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  LOW CLOUDS HAVE
BURNED OFF ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY LATE MORNING...EXCEPT FOR
AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.  EVEN IN THESE LOCATIONS...SHOULD SEE
SKIES BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

STRONG EARLY MORNING SHORTWAVE THAT CROSSED NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WAS
MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION.  IN ITS WAKE...THERE WAS SOME
SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL AT LEAST ALLOW FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 AND IT WILL BE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  WILL GO OVER
BOTH THE FAVORABLE AND UNFAVORABLE INGREDIENTS FOR CONVECTION.

1) FAVORABLE:

THE DEPARTING FIRST SHORTWAVE ACTUALLY HAS DELIVERED 500 MB TEMPS OF
-12C TO EASTERN MA LATE THIS MORNING...WHICH IS QUITE COLD ALOFT
CONSIDERING OUR AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE.  THEREFORE...WE SHOULD HAVE
NO PROBLEM ATTAINING 2000 TO 3000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.  QUITE HIGH FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.  AT
THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING DOWN ALONG THE
EASTERN MA COAST.  IN ADDITION...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL BE
INCREASING ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

2)UNFAVORABLE:

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE CREATED SUBSIDENCE AND WHILE IT WILL HELP TO
ALLOW HIGH CAPE TO DEVELOP...DRY MID LEVEL AIR MAY ATTEMPT TO
CUTOFF ANY UPDRAFTS.  THIS IS PROBABLY ONE OF THE MAIN REASONS THAT
SEVERAL MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH QPF.  ALTHOUGH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE...LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE QUITE WEAK WHICH
WILL BE ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR.  FINALLY...500 MB TEMPS ALONG THE
EASTERN MA COAST WARM FROM -12C AROUND 18Z TO -9C BY 00Z.

SO OVERALL...THERE ARE QUITE A BIT OF MIXED SIGNALS FROM MID
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WE DO THINK THAT THERE SHOULD AT LEAST BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI
WITH HELP FROM SOME CONVERGENCE ON THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.  MANY HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS IN FACT SHOW THAT.  HIT AND MISS ACTIVITY MAY
EXTEND INTO CENTRAL MA WITH THE HELP OF THE TERRAIN.  IN FACT...MAY
EVEN SEE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES ALTHOUGH
PROBABLY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

IF THOSE LIMITING FACTORS ARE OVERCOME...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...GIVEN VERY HIGH CAPES AND RATHER
COLD 500 MB TEMPS THROUGH 19 OR 20Z.  BEST SHOT WILL BE ON THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOMETHING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED WITH DRY
WEATHER DOMINATING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES.  IT COULD BE
ONE OF THOSE SCENARIOS WHERE WE COULD END UP WITH JUST A FEW LOW
TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS IF TOO MUCH DRY AIR ENTRAINS.  HOWEVER...THERE
ALSO IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED/LOCALIZED HIGH END SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL/MICROBURST GIVEN THE ABOVE
REASONING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT A
QUIET NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. WEAK
FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THAT IT WONT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE IS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND WHERE PRECIP
OCCURS TODAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW BRINGING
18-19C 850MB TEMPS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S LEADING
TO HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER
ON WEDNESDAY IF LOCATIONS REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...ESP
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT FORECAST
DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM AND HUMID THU
* SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THU/THU NIGHT
* DRIER/LESS HUMID FRI THRU MON BUT STILL WARM

WED NIGHT/THU/THU NIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT
INTO THU. THUS DRY WEATHER TO START THIS PERIOD HOWEVER THE RISK OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS INCREASES LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS POTENT
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CURRENTLY EXITING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINS TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST.
APPEARS TIMING OF THE FRONT COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WELL AFTER
PEAKING HEATING. THIS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SHEAR KEEPS THE RISK
LOW FOR STRONG CONVECTION LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. HOWEVER GOOD
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THIS TROUGH SUGGEST AT LEAST SHOWERS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. PWATS ABOVE NORMAL AND DEW PTS 65 TO 70 WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH STILL 2 DAYS AWAY WILL NEED TO
MONITOR LATER MODEL TRENDS.

OTHERWISE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. A MODEL BLEND OFFERS HIGHS U80S TO L90S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW/VORTEX SETS UP OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAY THIS TIME
PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND MEAN TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL /HIGHS MU80S/ AND LOWS IN THE 60S ALONG WITH TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY AS DEW PTS AVERAGE IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM JET SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THERE WILL BE THE RISK OF SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES. NOT A WASHOUT BUT THE
RISK OF CONVECTION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...

THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
BUT HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.  ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED...EXCEPT PERHAPS ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE MAY HELP.  A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG
TO EVEN SEVERE WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  HIGHEST RISK FOR THAT IS
EASTERN MA/RI.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION SHOULD COME TO AN END EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...VFR FOR MOST SITES EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT IFR IN STRATUS
AND FOG ACROSS FAR SE MASS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.  LOW
CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER OR NOT A THUNDERSTORM IS IN THE VICINITY OF
BOSTON BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NGT/THU...PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG WED NGT BUT QUICKLY IMPROVING
TO VFR THU MORNING. LOW PROB THAT MVFR/IFR IN STRATUS LINGERS ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST THU. THEN UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICK THIS FOG/STRATUS
BURNS OFF SOUTH COAST.

THU NIGHT...VFR-MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE.

FRI AND SAT...VFR LIKELY. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE HIGHEST
RISK ACROSS OUR WATERS ADJACENT TO EASTERN MA. OTHERWISE FOG AND
STRATUS WILL BE THE ISSUE TONIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NIGHT AND THU...FAIRLY TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS. POSSIBLE PATCHY
FOG IN HUMID AIRMASS.

THU NIGHT...MODEST SSW WIND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE.

FRI AND SAT...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
MAY ENTER THE WATERS SAT. WSW WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281805
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND POSSIBLY
RHODE ISLAND TODAY. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
  EVENING MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND BUT CAN NOT RULE
  ONE OUT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH SOME TERRAIN INTERACTION***

2 PM UPDATE...

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  LATEST SPC MESO-ANALYSIS
SHOWS 2000 TO 3000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OVER 50
KNOTS ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE
HIGHEST RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST MA AND INTO RHODE ISLAND.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE ONE OUT ANYWHERE AS A RESULT OF
SOME TERRAIN INTERACTION.  WE ARE WATCHING ONE STRONG STORM RIGHT
NOW IN NORTHWEST MA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1030 AM...

OVERALL...A RATHER COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN SETUP ON CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  LOW CLOUDS HAVE
BURNED OFF ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY LATE MORNING...EXCEPT FOR
AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.  EVEN IN THESE LOCATIONS...SHOULD SEE
SKIES BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

STRONG EARLY MORNING SHORTWAVE THAT CROSSED NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WAS
MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION.  IN ITS WAKE...THERE WAS SOME
SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL AT LEAST ALLOW FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 AND IT WILL BE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  WILL GO OVER
BOTH THE FAVORABLE AND UNFAVORABLE INGREDIENTS FOR CONVECTION.

1) FAVORABLE:

THE DEPARTING FIRST SHORTWAVE ACTUALLY HAS DELIVERED 500 MB TEMPS OF
-12C TO EASTERN MA LATE THIS MORNING...WHICH IS QUITE COLD ALOFT
CONSIDERING OUR AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE.  THEREFORE...WE SHOULD HAVE
NO PROBLEM ATTAINING 2000 TO 3000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.  QUITE HIGH FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.  AT
THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING DOWN ALONG THE
EASTERN MA COAST.  IN ADDITION...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL BE
INCREASING ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

2)UNFAVORABLE:

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE CREATED SUBSIDENCE AND WHILE IT WILL HELP TO
ALLOW HIGH CAPE TO DEVELOP...DRY MID LEVEL AIR MAY ATTEMPT TO
CUTOFF ANY UPDRAFTS.  THIS IS PROBABLY ONE OF THE MAIN REASONS THAT
SEVERAL MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH QPF.  ALTHOUGH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE...LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE QUITE WEAK WHICH
WILL BE ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR.  FINALLY...500 MB TEMPS ALONG THE
EASTERN MA COAST WARM FROM -12C AROUND 18Z TO -9C BY 00Z.

SO OVERALL...THERE ARE QUITE A BIT OF MIXED SIGNALS FROM MID
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WE DO THINK THAT THERE SHOULD AT LEAST BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI
WITH HELP FROM SOME CONVERGENCE ON THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.  MANY HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS IN FACT SHOW THAT.  HIT AND MISS ACTIVITY MAY
EXTEND INTO CENTRAL MA WITH THE HELP OF THE TERRAIN.  IN FACT...MAY
EVEN SEE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES ALTHOUGH
PROBABLY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

IF THOSE LIMITING FACTORS ARE OVERCOME...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...GIVEN VERY HIGH CAPES AND RATHER
COLD 500 MB TEMPS THROUGH 19 OR 20Z.  BEST SHOT WILL BE ON THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOMETHING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED WITH DRY
WEATHER DOMINATING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES.  IT COULD BE
ONE OF THOSE SCENARIOS WHERE WE COULD END UP WITH JUST A FEW LOW
TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS IF TOO MUCH DRY AIR ENTRAINS.  HOWEVER...THERE
ALSO IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED/LOCALIZED HIGH END SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL/MICROBURST GIVEN THE ABOVE
REASONING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT A
QUIET NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. WEAK
FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THAT IT WONT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE IS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND WHERE PRECIP
OCCURS TODAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW BRINGING
18-19C 850MB TEMPS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S LEADING
TO HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER
ON WEDNESDAY IF LOCATIONS REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...ESP
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT FORECAST
DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM AND HUMID THU
* SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THU/THU NIGHT
* DRIER/LESS HUMID FRI THRU MON BUT STILL WARM

WED NIGHT/THU/THU NIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT
INTO THU. THUS DRY WEATHER TO START THIS PERIOD HOWEVER THE RISK OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS INCREASES LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS POTENT
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CURRENTLY EXITING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINS TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST.
APPEARS TIMING OF THE FRONT COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WELL AFTER
PEAKING HEATING. THIS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SHEAR KEEPS THE RISK
LOW FOR STRONG CONVECTION LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. HOWEVER GOOD
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THIS TROUGH SUGGEST AT LEAST SHOWERS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. PWATS ABOVE NORMAL AND DEW PTS 65 TO 70 WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH STILL 2 DAYS AWAY WILL NEED TO
MONITOR LATER MODEL TRENDS.

OTHERWISE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. A MODEL BLEND OFFERS HIGHS U80S TO L90S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW/VORTEX SETS UP OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAY THIS TIME
PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND MEAN TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL /HIGHS MU80S/ AND LOWS IN THE 60S ALONG WITH TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY AS DEW PTS AVERAGE IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM JET SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THERE WILL BE THE RISK OF SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES. NOT A WASHOUT BUT THE
RISK OF CONVECTION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...

THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
BUT HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.  ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED...EXCEPT PERHAPS ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE MAY HELP.  A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG
TO EVEN SEVERE WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  HIGHEST RISK FOR THAT IS
EASTERN MA/RI.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION SHOULD COME TO AN END EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...VFR FOR MOST SITES EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT IFR IN STRATUS
AND FOG ACROSS FAR SE MASS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.  LOW
CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER OR NOT A THUNDERSTORM IS IN THE VICINITY OF
BOSTON BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NGT/THU...PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG WED NGT BUT QUICKLY IMPROVING
TO VFR THU MORNING. LOW PROB THAT MVFR/IFR IN STRATUS LINGERS ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST THU. THEN UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICK THIS FOG/STRATUS
BURNS OFF SOUTH COAST.

THU NIGHT...VFR-MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE.

FRI AND SAT...VFR LIKELY. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE HIGHEST
RISK ACROSS OUR WATERS ADJACENT TO EASTERN MA. OTHERWISE FOG AND
STRATUS WILL BE THE ISSUE TONIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NIGHT AND THU...FAIRLY TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS. POSSIBLE PATCHY
FOG IN HUMID AIRMASS.

THU NIGHT...MODEST SSW WIND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE.

FRI AND SAT...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
MAY ENTER THE WATERS SAT. WSW WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KGYX 281635
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1235 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC
FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1222 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS THAT REFLECTS
SATELLITE TRENDS AND INCORPORATES THE LATEST MESONET...ALONG WITH
HRRR OUTPUT.

PREV DISC...
928 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST SATELLITE TREND AND
TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET IN FIRST PERIOD GRIDS. SHORTWAVE ALONG
THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...WAS RACING SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD BE
VICINITY OF OUR INTERNATIONAL AREA NEAR 23Z. THIS FEATURE COULD
PROVIDE AN EXTRA KICK TO EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...MODIFIED 12Z KGYX RAOB
SHOWS CAPES AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG WHICH AGREES WELL WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS FOR LATER TODAY...WITH STRONG WINDS PRIMARY
CONCERN ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

PREV DISC...
6AM UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS MADE IT TO THE COASTLINE A LITTLE
BIT EARLIER THAN FORECAST. HAVE UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
REFLECT THIS. STILL A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN EYES TURN
TOWARD AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
QUEBEC. GIVEN A MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER/DRIER AIR
ALOFT... ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS BEING TAPPED. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS.

BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WHICH
WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. INCREASINGLY WARM
AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 2000 OR MORE CAPE. THIS
IS QUITE STRONG BY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. IN PART THIS
LARGE CAPE VALUE IS A RESULT OF THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH
WHICH CAUSES DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS IN AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
THE RESULT IS A CAPPING INVERSION WHICH HELPS SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY... AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO BAKE IN THE HEAT LONGER BEFORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ABLE TO STALL HEATING. THIS HIGH AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY COULD WELL GO UNTAPPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ABSENCE
OF A TRIGGER MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION AND INITIATE LIFTING.

IN THE SEARCH FOR A TRIGGER WE FIND A SURFACE FRONT / WIND SHIFT
LINE WHICH WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD REACH THE FOOTHILLS REGION OF MAINE PERHAPS
NEAR AUGUSTA BEFORE IT COLLIDES WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY THESE TWO BOUNDARIES... AND
THEIR POSSIBLE COLLISION... COULD SERVE AS THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM NEEDED TO GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SOURCE OF LIFT WOULD BE HEATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHICH LEADS TO MORE FOCUSED RISING MOTION OVER THE PEAKS.
OF THESE TWO SOURCES... THE COLLIDING BOUNDARIES SEEM TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY TO HELP OVERCOME THE CAP AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN
THIS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE A BIT LOWER DUE TO THE OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER... STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. OVERALL WIND SHEAR MIGHT BE JUST
UNDER WHAT IS NEEDED FOR CLASSIC SUPERCELLS... HOWEVER IT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR SUPERCELLS WITHIN LOCALLY
ENHANCED REGIONS OF SHEAR. THE TOTAL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ALSO
SUGGESTS HAIL TO BE A POSSIBILITY... AND THE WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS
WHICH WILL BE NEEDED TO OVERCOME THE CAP SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO BE A THREAT IN THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK
EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL AREAS OF BACK BUILDING ALONG THE COLLIDING
BOUNDARIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING INTO THE MID 90S OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER... ELEVATED INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS SO ANY STORMS WHICH ALREADY EXIST COULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
MARINE FOG COULD MAKE A RETURN TO THE MAINE COASTLINE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAD MOVED SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY GET
STALLED BY THE COLLISION WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND
EXTENDING TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE COULD
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER OVERALL STORM CHANCES ARE LOW. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY SO IF STORMS DO
FORM THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. BUT THE
CONFIDENCE IN STORM FORMATION IS FAIRLY LOW AS WARM AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE IN ALOFT... MAKING IT A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO BREAK THE
CAP. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR. JUST ABOUT
EVERYONE WILL EXCEED 80 DEGREES... EVEN TYPICALLY COOL ROCKLAND.
PORTLAND MAY FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES BEFORE A SEA BREEZE CUTS
HEATING SHORT. INLAND AREAS AND MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD BE IN
THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S...
BUT FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100 DEGREES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THEIR WAY OUT THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BEFORE PRECIPITATION COOLS THINGS DOWN. STORMS WILL
BENEFIT FROM WARM MUGGY AIR BUT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGER IN
CANADA AND ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 15 KTS HERE. WE COULD STILL SEE
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS ESPECIALLY.

FRIDAY WILL BE JUST A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT KEEPS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND SHOWERS OVER THE CARRABASSETT VALLEY AND TO THE NE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY WITH ITS PARENT SURFACE LOW
WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS OF NH AND MAINE.

ANOTHER SEEMINGLY UNANCHORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE PRECIPITATION EVENTS TEND TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS AND ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
STATIONARY OR SLOW MOVING BOUNDARIES (SEA BREEZES... OUTFLOWS...
ETC) THAT WILL BE HARD TO DEFINE AHEAD OF TIME. THUS IT WILL BE
HARD TO PINPOINT WHO WILL GET RAIN AND WHO WONT ON ANY GIVEN
DAY... SUCH IS THE NATURE OF SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA WIDE TODAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND POSSIBLY INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. COULD SEE
THE RETURN OF MARINE FOG AND CLOUDS TONIGHT TO THE MAINE COAST AND
VALLEY FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY MORNING MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. ON
SATURDAY... SCATTERED MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR KHIE AND KLEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA BUT MAY BRUSH
NEAR 5 FT IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEK EVEN THOUGH SPEEDS
SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW 12 KTS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 281635
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1235 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC
FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1222 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS THAT REFLECTS
SATELLITE TRENDS AND INCORPORATES THE LATEST MESONET...ALONG WITH
HRRR OUTPUT.

PREV DISC...
928 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST SATELLITE TREND AND
TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET IN FIRST PERIOD GRIDS. SHORTWAVE ALONG
THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...WAS RACING SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD BE
VICINITY OF OUR INTERNATIONAL AREA NEAR 23Z. THIS FEATURE COULD
PROVIDE AN EXTRA KICK TO EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...MODIFIED 12Z KGYX RAOB
SHOWS CAPES AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG WHICH AGREES WELL WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS FOR LATER TODAY...WITH STRONG WINDS PRIMARY
CONCERN ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

PREV DISC...
6AM UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS MADE IT TO THE COASTLINE A LITTLE
BIT EARLIER THAN FORECAST. HAVE UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
REFLECT THIS. STILL A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN EYES TURN
TOWARD AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
QUEBEC. GIVEN A MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER/DRIER AIR
ALOFT... ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS BEING TAPPED. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS.

BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WHICH
WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. INCREASINGLY WARM
AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 2000 OR MORE CAPE. THIS
IS QUITE STRONG BY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. IN PART THIS
LARGE CAPE VALUE IS A RESULT OF THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH
WHICH CAUSES DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS IN AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
THE RESULT IS A CAPPING INVERSION WHICH HELPS SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY... AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO BAKE IN THE HEAT LONGER BEFORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ABLE TO STALL HEATING. THIS HIGH AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY COULD WELL GO UNTAPPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ABSENCE
OF A TRIGGER MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION AND INITIATE LIFTING.

IN THE SEARCH FOR A TRIGGER WE FIND A SURFACE FRONT / WIND SHIFT
LINE WHICH WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD REACH THE FOOTHILLS REGION OF MAINE PERHAPS
NEAR AUGUSTA BEFORE IT COLLIDES WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY THESE TWO BOUNDARIES... AND
THEIR POSSIBLE COLLISION... COULD SERVE AS THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM NEEDED TO GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SOURCE OF LIFT WOULD BE HEATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHICH LEADS TO MORE FOCUSED RISING MOTION OVER THE PEAKS.
OF THESE TWO SOURCES... THE COLLIDING BOUNDARIES SEEM TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY TO HELP OVERCOME THE CAP AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN
THIS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE A BIT LOWER DUE TO THE OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER... STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. OVERALL WIND SHEAR MIGHT BE JUST
UNDER WHAT IS NEEDED FOR CLASSIC SUPERCELLS... HOWEVER IT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR SUPERCELLS WITHIN LOCALLY
ENHANCED REGIONS OF SHEAR. THE TOTAL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ALSO
SUGGESTS HAIL TO BE A POSSIBILITY... AND THE WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS
WHICH WILL BE NEEDED TO OVERCOME THE CAP SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO BE A THREAT IN THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK
EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL AREAS OF BACK BUILDING ALONG THE COLLIDING
BOUNDARIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING INTO THE MID 90S OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER... ELEVATED INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS SO ANY STORMS WHICH ALREADY EXIST COULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
MARINE FOG COULD MAKE A RETURN TO THE MAINE COASTLINE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAD MOVED SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY GET
STALLED BY THE COLLISION WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND
EXTENDING TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE COULD
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER OVERALL STORM CHANCES ARE LOW. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY SO IF STORMS DO
FORM THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. BUT THE
CONFIDENCE IN STORM FORMATION IS FAIRLY LOW AS WARM AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE IN ALOFT... MAKING IT A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO BREAK THE
CAP. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR. JUST ABOUT
EVERYONE WILL EXCEED 80 DEGREES... EVEN TYPICALLY COOL ROCKLAND.
PORTLAND MAY FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES BEFORE A SEA BREEZE CUTS
HEATING SHORT. INLAND AREAS AND MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD BE IN
THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S...
BUT FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100 DEGREES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THEIR WAY OUT THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BEFORE PRECIPITATION COOLS THINGS DOWN. STORMS WILL
BENEFIT FROM WARM MUGGY AIR BUT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGER IN
CANADA AND ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 15 KTS HERE. WE COULD STILL SEE
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS ESPECIALLY.

FRIDAY WILL BE JUST A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT KEEPS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND SHOWERS OVER THE CARRABASSETT VALLEY AND TO THE NE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY WITH ITS PARENT SURFACE LOW
WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS OF NH AND MAINE.

ANOTHER SEEMINGLY UNANCHORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE PRECIPITATION EVENTS TEND TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS AND ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
STATIONARY OR SLOW MOVING BOUNDARIES (SEA BREEZES... OUTFLOWS...
ETC) THAT WILL BE HARD TO DEFINE AHEAD OF TIME. THUS IT WILL BE
HARD TO PINPOINT WHO WILL GET RAIN AND WHO WONT ON ANY GIVEN
DAY... SUCH IS THE NATURE OF SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA WIDE TODAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND POSSIBLY INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. COULD SEE
THE RETURN OF MARINE FOG AND CLOUDS TONIGHT TO THE MAINE COAST AND
VALLEY FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY MORNING MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. ON
SATURDAY... SCATTERED MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR KHIE AND KLEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA BUT MAY BRUSH
NEAR 5 FT IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEK EVEN THOUGH SPEEDS
SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW 12 KTS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 281635
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1235 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC
FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1222 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS THAT REFLECTS
SATELLITE TRENDS AND INCORPORATES THE LATEST MESONET...ALONG WITH
HRRR OUTPUT.

PREV DISC...
928 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST SATELLITE TREND AND
TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET IN FIRST PERIOD GRIDS. SHORTWAVE ALONG
THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...WAS RACING SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD BE
VICINITY OF OUR INTERNATIONAL AREA NEAR 23Z. THIS FEATURE COULD
PROVIDE AN EXTRA KICK TO EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...MODIFIED 12Z KGYX RAOB
SHOWS CAPES AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG WHICH AGREES WELL WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS FOR LATER TODAY...WITH STRONG WINDS PRIMARY
CONCERN ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

PREV DISC...
6AM UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS MADE IT TO THE COASTLINE A LITTLE
BIT EARLIER THAN FORECAST. HAVE UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
REFLECT THIS. STILL A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN EYES TURN
TOWARD AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
QUEBEC. GIVEN A MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER/DRIER AIR
ALOFT... ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS BEING TAPPED. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS.

BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WHICH
WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. INCREASINGLY WARM
AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 2000 OR MORE CAPE. THIS
IS QUITE STRONG BY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. IN PART THIS
LARGE CAPE VALUE IS A RESULT OF THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH
WHICH CAUSES DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS IN AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
THE RESULT IS A CAPPING INVERSION WHICH HELPS SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY... AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO BAKE IN THE HEAT LONGER BEFORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ABLE TO STALL HEATING. THIS HIGH AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY COULD WELL GO UNTAPPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ABSENCE
OF A TRIGGER MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION AND INITIATE LIFTING.

IN THE SEARCH FOR A TRIGGER WE FIND A SURFACE FRONT / WIND SHIFT
LINE WHICH WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD REACH THE FOOTHILLS REGION OF MAINE PERHAPS
NEAR AUGUSTA BEFORE IT COLLIDES WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY THESE TWO BOUNDARIES... AND
THEIR POSSIBLE COLLISION... COULD SERVE AS THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM NEEDED TO GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SOURCE OF LIFT WOULD BE HEATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHICH LEADS TO MORE FOCUSED RISING MOTION OVER THE PEAKS.
OF THESE TWO SOURCES... THE COLLIDING BOUNDARIES SEEM TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY TO HELP OVERCOME THE CAP AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN
THIS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE A BIT LOWER DUE TO THE OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER... STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. OVERALL WIND SHEAR MIGHT BE JUST
UNDER WHAT IS NEEDED FOR CLASSIC SUPERCELLS... HOWEVER IT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR SUPERCELLS WITHIN LOCALLY
ENHANCED REGIONS OF SHEAR. THE TOTAL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ALSO
SUGGESTS HAIL TO BE A POSSIBILITY... AND THE WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS
WHICH WILL BE NEEDED TO OVERCOME THE CAP SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO BE A THREAT IN THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK
EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL AREAS OF BACK BUILDING ALONG THE COLLIDING
BOUNDARIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING INTO THE MID 90S OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER... ELEVATED INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS SO ANY STORMS WHICH ALREADY EXIST COULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
MARINE FOG COULD MAKE A RETURN TO THE MAINE COASTLINE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAD MOVED SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY GET
STALLED BY THE COLLISION WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND
EXTENDING TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE COULD
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER OVERALL STORM CHANCES ARE LOW. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY SO IF STORMS DO
FORM THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. BUT THE
CONFIDENCE IN STORM FORMATION IS FAIRLY LOW AS WARM AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE IN ALOFT... MAKING IT A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO BREAK THE
CAP. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR. JUST ABOUT
EVERYONE WILL EXCEED 80 DEGREES... EVEN TYPICALLY COOL ROCKLAND.
PORTLAND MAY FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES BEFORE A SEA BREEZE CUTS
HEATING SHORT. INLAND AREAS AND MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD BE IN
THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S...
BUT FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100 DEGREES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THEIR WAY OUT THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BEFORE PRECIPITATION COOLS THINGS DOWN. STORMS WILL
BENEFIT FROM WARM MUGGY AIR BUT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGER IN
CANADA AND ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 15 KTS HERE. WE COULD STILL SEE
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS ESPECIALLY.

FRIDAY WILL BE JUST A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT KEEPS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND SHOWERS OVER THE CARRABASSETT VALLEY AND TO THE NE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY WITH ITS PARENT SURFACE LOW
WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS OF NH AND MAINE.

ANOTHER SEEMINGLY UNANCHORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE PRECIPITATION EVENTS TEND TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS AND ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
STATIONARY OR SLOW MOVING BOUNDARIES (SEA BREEZES... OUTFLOWS...
ETC) THAT WILL BE HARD TO DEFINE AHEAD OF TIME. THUS IT WILL BE
HARD TO PINPOINT WHO WILL GET RAIN AND WHO WONT ON ANY GIVEN
DAY... SUCH IS THE NATURE OF SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA WIDE TODAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND POSSIBLY INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. COULD SEE
THE RETURN OF MARINE FOG AND CLOUDS TONIGHT TO THE MAINE COAST AND
VALLEY FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY MORNING MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. ON
SATURDAY... SCATTERED MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR KHIE AND KLEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA BUT MAY BRUSH
NEAR 5 FT IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEK EVEN THOUGH SPEEDS
SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW 12 KTS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 281635
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1235 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC
FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1222 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS THAT REFLECTS
SATELLITE TRENDS AND INCORPORATES THE LATEST MESONET...ALONG WITH
HRRR OUTPUT.

PREV DISC...
928 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST SATELLITE TREND AND
TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET IN FIRST PERIOD GRIDS. SHORTWAVE ALONG
THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...WAS RACING SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD BE
VICINITY OF OUR INTERNATIONAL AREA NEAR 23Z. THIS FEATURE COULD
PROVIDE AN EXTRA KICK TO EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...MODIFIED 12Z KGYX RAOB
SHOWS CAPES AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG WHICH AGREES WELL WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS FOR LATER TODAY...WITH STRONG WINDS PRIMARY
CONCERN ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

PREV DISC...
6AM UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS MADE IT TO THE COASTLINE A LITTLE
BIT EARLIER THAN FORECAST. HAVE UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
REFLECT THIS. STILL A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN EYES TURN
TOWARD AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
QUEBEC. GIVEN A MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER/DRIER AIR
ALOFT... ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS BEING TAPPED. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS.

BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WHICH
WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. INCREASINGLY WARM
AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 2000 OR MORE CAPE. THIS
IS QUITE STRONG BY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. IN PART THIS
LARGE CAPE VALUE IS A RESULT OF THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH
WHICH CAUSES DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS IN AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
THE RESULT IS A CAPPING INVERSION WHICH HELPS SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY... AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO BAKE IN THE HEAT LONGER BEFORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ABLE TO STALL HEATING. THIS HIGH AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY COULD WELL GO UNTAPPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ABSENCE
OF A TRIGGER MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION AND INITIATE LIFTING.

IN THE SEARCH FOR A TRIGGER WE FIND A SURFACE FRONT / WIND SHIFT
LINE WHICH WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD REACH THE FOOTHILLS REGION OF MAINE PERHAPS
NEAR AUGUSTA BEFORE IT COLLIDES WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY THESE TWO BOUNDARIES... AND
THEIR POSSIBLE COLLISION... COULD SERVE AS THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM NEEDED TO GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SOURCE OF LIFT WOULD BE HEATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHICH LEADS TO MORE FOCUSED RISING MOTION OVER THE PEAKS.
OF THESE TWO SOURCES... THE COLLIDING BOUNDARIES SEEM TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY TO HELP OVERCOME THE CAP AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN
THIS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE A BIT LOWER DUE TO THE OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER... STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. OVERALL WIND SHEAR MIGHT BE JUST
UNDER WHAT IS NEEDED FOR CLASSIC SUPERCELLS... HOWEVER IT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR SUPERCELLS WITHIN LOCALLY
ENHANCED REGIONS OF SHEAR. THE TOTAL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ALSO
SUGGESTS HAIL TO BE A POSSIBILITY... AND THE WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS
WHICH WILL BE NEEDED TO OVERCOME THE CAP SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO BE A THREAT IN THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK
EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL AREAS OF BACK BUILDING ALONG THE COLLIDING
BOUNDARIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING INTO THE MID 90S OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER... ELEVATED INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS SO ANY STORMS WHICH ALREADY EXIST COULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
MARINE FOG COULD MAKE A RETURN TO THE MAINE COASTLINE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAD MOVED SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY GET
STALLED BY THE COLLISION WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND
EXTENDING TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE COULD
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER OVERALL STORM CHANCES ARE LOW. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY SO IF STORMS DO
FORM THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. BUT THE
CONFIDENCE IN STORM FORMATION IS FAIRLY LOW AS WARM AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE IN ALOFT... MAKING IT A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO BREAK THE
CAP. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR. JUST ABOUT
EVERYONE WILL EXCEED 80 DEGREES... EVEN TYPICALLY COOL ROCKLAND.
PORTLAND MAY FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES BEFORE A SEA BREEZE CUTS
HEATING SHORT. INLAND AREAS AND MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD BE IN
THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S...
BUT FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100 DEGREES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THEIR WAY OUT THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BEFORE PRECIPITATION COOLS THINGS DOWN. STORMS WILL
BENEFIT FROM WARM MUGGY AIR BUT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGER IN
CANADA AND ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 15 KTS HERE. WE COULD STILL SEE
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS ESPECIALLY.

FRIDAY WILL BE JUST A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT KEEPS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND SHOWERS OVER THE CARRABASSETT VALLEY AND TO THE NE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY WITH ITS PARENT SURFACE LOW
WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS OF NH AND MAINE.

ANOTHER SEEMINGLY UNANCHORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE PRECIPITATION EVENTS TEND TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS AND ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
STATIONARY OR SLOW MOVING BOUNDARIES (SEA BREEZES... OUTFLOWS...
ETC) THAT WILL BE HARD TO DEFINE AHEAD OF TIME. THUS IT WILL BE
HARD TO PINPOINT WHO WILL GET RAIN AND WHO WONT ON ANY GIVEN
DAY... SUCH IS THE NATURE OF SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA WIDE TODAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND POSSIBLY INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. COULD SEE
THE RETURN OF MARINE FOG AND CLOUDS TONIGHT TO THE MAINE COAST AND
VALLEY FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY MORNING MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. ON
SATURDAY... SCATTERED MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR KHIE AND KLEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA BUT MAY BRUSH
NEAR 5 FT IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEK EVEN THOUGH SPEEDS
SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW 12 KTS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 281635
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1235 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC
FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1222 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS THAT REFLECTS
SATELLITE TRENDS AND INCORPORATES THE LATEST MESONET...ALONG WITH
HRRR OUTPUT.

PREV DISC...
928 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST SATELLITE TREND AND
TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET IN FIRST PERIOD GRIDS. SHORTWAVE ALONG
THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...WAS RACING SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD BE
VICINITY OF OUR INTERNATIONAL AREA NEAR 23Z. THIS FEATURE COULD
PROVIDE AN EXTRA KICK TO EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...MODIFIED 12Z KGYX RAOB
SHOWS CAPES AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG WHICH AGREES WELL WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS FOR LATER TODAY...WITH STRONG WINDS PRIMARY
CONCERN ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

PREV DISC...
6AM UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS MADE IT TO THE COASTLINE A LITTLE
BIT EARLIER THAN FORECAST. HAVE UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
REFLECT THIS. STILL A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN EYES TURN
TOWARD AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
QUEBEC. GIVEN A MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER/DRIER AIR
ALOFT... ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS BEING TAPPED. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS.

BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WHICH
WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. INCREASINGLY WARM
AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 2000 OR MORE CAPE. THIS
IS QUITE STRONG BY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. IN PART THIS
LARGE CAPE VALUE IS A RESULT OF THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH
WHICH CAUSES DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS IN AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
THE RESULT IS A CAPPING INVERSION WHICH HELPS SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY... AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO BAKE IN THE HEAT LONGER BEFORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ABLE TO STALL HEATING. THIS HIGH AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY COULD WELL GO UNTAPPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ABSENCE
OF A TRIGGER MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION AND INITIATE LIFTING.

IN THE SEARCH FOR A TRIGGER WE FIND A SURFACE FRONT / WIND SHIFT
LINE WHICH WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD REACH THE FOOTHILLS REGION OF MAINE PERHAPS
NEAR AUGUSTA BEFORE IT COLLIDES WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY THESE TWO BOUNDARIES... AND
THEIR POSSIBLE COLLISION... COULD SERVE AS THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM NEEDED TO GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SOURCE OF LIFT WOULD BE HEATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHICH LEADS TO MORE FOCUSED RISING MOTION OVER THE PEAKS.
OF THESE TWO SOURCES... THE COLLIDING BOUNDARIES SEEM TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY TO HELP OVERCOME THE CAP AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN
THIS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE A BIT LOWER DUE TO THE OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER... STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. OVERALL WIND SHEAR MIGHT BE JUST
UNDER WHAT IS NEEDED FOR CLASSIC SUPERCELLS... HOWEVER IT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR SUPERCELLS WITHIN LOCALLY
ENHANCED REGIONS OF SHEAR. THE TOTAL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ALSO
SUGGESTS HAIL TO BE A POSSIBILITY... AND THE WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS
WHICH WILL BE NEEDED TO OVERCOME THE CAP SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO BE A THREAT IN THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK
EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL AREAS OF BACK BUILDING ALONG THE COLLIDING
BOUNDARIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING INTO THE MID 90S OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER... ELEVATED INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS SO ANY STORMS WHICH ALREADY EXIST COULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
MARINE FOG COULD MAKE A RETURN TO THE MAINE COASTLINE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAD MOVED SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY GET
STALLED BY THE COLLISION WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND
EXTENDING TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE COULD
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER OVERALL STORM CHANCES ARE LOW. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY SO IF STORMS DO
FORM THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. BUT THE
CONFIDENCE IN STORM FORMATION IS FAIRLY LOW AS WARM AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE IN ALOFT... MAKING IT A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO BREAK THE
CAP. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR. JUST ABOUT
EVERYONE WILL EXCEED 80 DEGREES... EVEN TYPICALLY COOL ROCKLAND.
PORTLAND MAY FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES BEFORE A SEA BREEZE CUTS
HEATING SHORT. INLAND AREAS AND MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD BE IN
THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S...
BUT FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100 DEGREES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THEIR WAY OUT THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BEFORE PRECIPITATION COOLS THINGS DOWN. STORMS WILL
BENEFIT FROM WARM MUGGY AIR BUT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGER IN
CANADA AND ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 15 KTS HERE. WE COULD STILL SEE
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS ESPECIALLY.

FRIDAY WILL BE JUST A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT KEEPS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND SHOWERS OVER THE CARRABASSETT VALLEY AND TO THE NE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY WITH ITS PARENT SURFACE LOW
WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS OF NH AND MAINE.

ANOTHER SEEMINGLY UNANCHORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE PRECIPITATION EVENTS TEND TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS AND ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
STATIONARY OR SLOW MOVING BOUNDARIES (SEA BREEZES... OUTFLOWS...
ETC) THAT WILL BE HARD TO DEFINE AHEAD OF TIME. THUS IT WILL BE
HARD TO PINPOINT WHO WILL GET RAIN AND WHO WONT ON ANY GIVEN
DAY... SUCH IS THE NATURE OF SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA WIDE TODAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND POSSIBLY INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. COULD SEE
THE RETURN OF MARINE FOG AND CLOUDS TONIGHT TO THE MAINE COAST AND
VALLEY FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY MORNING MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. ON
SATURDAY... SCATTERED MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR KHIE AND KLEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA BUT MAY BRUSH
NEAR 5 FT IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEK EVEN THOUGH SPEEDS
SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW 12 KTS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281635
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1235 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC
FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1222 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS THAT REFLECTS
SATELLITE TRENDS AND INCORPORATES THE LATEST MESONET...ALONG WITH
HRRR OUTPUT.

PREV DISC...
928 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST SATELLITE TREND AND
TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET IN FIRST PERIOD GRIDS. SHORTWAVE ALONG
THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...WAS RACING SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD BE
VICINITY OF OUR INTERNATIONAL AREA NEAR 23Z. THIS FEATURE COULD
PROVIDE AN EXTRA KICK TO EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...MODIFIED 12Z KGYX RAOB
SHOWS CAPES AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG WHICH AGREES WELL WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS FOR LATER TODAY...WITH STRONG WINDS PRIMARY
CONCERN ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

PREV DISC...
6AM UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS MADE IT TO THE COASTLINE A LITTLE
BIT EARLIER THAN FORECAST. HAVE UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
REFLECT THIS. STILL A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN EYES TURN
TOWARD AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
QUEBEC. GIVEN A MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER/DRIER AIR
ALOFT... ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS BEING TAPPED. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS.

BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WHICH
WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. INCREASINGLY WARM
AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 2000 OR MORE CAPE. THIS
IS QUITE STRONG BY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. IN PART THIS
LARGE CAPE VALUE IS A RESULT OF THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH
WHICH CAUSES DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS IN AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
THE RESULT IS A CAPPING INVERSION WHICH HELPS SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY... AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO BAKE IN THE HEAT LONGER BEFORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ABLE TO STALL HEATING. THIS HIGH AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY COULD WELL GO UNTAPPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ABSENCE
OF A TRIGGER MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION AND INITIATE LIFTING.

IN THE SEARCH FOR A TRIGGER WE FIND A SURFACE FRONT / WIND SHIFT
LINE WHICH WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD REACH THE FOOTHILLS REGION OF MAINE PERHAPS
NEAR AUGUSTA BEFORE IT COLLIDES WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY THESE TWO BOUNDARIES... AND
THEIR POSSIBLE COLLISION... COULD SERVE AS THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM NEEDED TO GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SOURCE OF LIFT WOULD BE HEATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHICH LEADS TO MORE FOCUSED RISING MOTION OVER THE PEAKS.
OF THESE TWO SOURCES... THE COLLIDING BOUNDARIES SEEM TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY TO HELP OVERCOME THE CAP AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN
THIS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE A BIT LOWER DUE TO THE OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER... STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. OVERALL WIND SHEAR MIGHT BE JUST
UNDER WHAT IS NEEDED FOR CLASSIC SUPERCELLS... HOWEVER IT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR SUPERCELLS WITHIN LOCALLY
ENHANCED REGIONS OF SHEAR. THE TOTAL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ALSO
SUGGESTS HAIL TO BE A POSSIBILITY... AND THE WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS
WHICH WILL BE NEEDED TO OVERCOME THE CAP SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO BE A THREAT IN THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK
EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL AREAS OF BACK BUILDING ALONG THE COLLIDING
BOUNDARIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING INTO THE MID 90S OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER... ELEVATED INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS SO ANY STORMS WHICH ALREADY EXIST COULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
MARINE FOG COULD MAKE A RETURN TO THE MAINE COASTLINE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAD MOVED SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY GET
STALLED BY THE COLLISION WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND
EXTENDING TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE COULD
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER OVERALL STORM CHANCES ARE LOW. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY SO IF STORMS DO
FORM THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. BUT THE
CONFIDENCE IN STORM FORMATION IS FAIRLY LOW AS WARM AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE IN ALOFT... MAKING IT A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO BREAK THE
CAP. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR. JUST ABOUT
EVERYONE WILL EXCEED 80 DEGREES... EVEN TYPICALLY COOL ROCKLAND.
PORTLAND MAY FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES BEFORE A SEA BREEZE CUTS
HEATING SHORT. INLAND AREAS AND MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD BE IN
THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S...
BUT FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100 DEGREES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THEIR WAY OUT THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BEFORE PRECIPITATION COOLS THINGS DOWN. STORMS WILL
BENEFIT FROM WARM MUGGY AIR BUT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGER IN
CANADA AND ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 15 KTS HERE. WE COULD STILL SEE
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS ESPECIALLY.

FRIDAY WILL BE JUST A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT KEEPS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND SHOWERS OVER THE CARRABASSETT VALLEY AND TO THE NE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY WITH ITS PARENT SURFACE LOW
WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS OF NH AND MAINE.

ANOTHER SEEMINGLY UNANCHORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE PRECIPITATION EVENTS TEND TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS AND ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
STATIONARY OR SLOW MOVING BOUNDARIES (SEA BREEZES... OUTFLOWS...
ETC) THAT WILL BE HARD TO DEFINE AHEAD OF TIME. THUS IT WILL BE
HARD TO PINPOINT WHO WILL GET RAIN AND WHO WONT ON ANY GIVEN
DAY... SUCH IS THE NATURE OF SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA WIDE TODAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND POSSIBLY INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. COULD SEE
THE RETURN OF MARINE FOG AND CLOUDS TONIGHT TO THE MAINE COAST AND
VALLEY FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY MORNING MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. ON
SATURDAY... SCATTERED MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR KHIE AND KLEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA BUT MAY BRUSH
NEAR 5 FT IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEK EVEN THOUGH SPEEDS
SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW 12 KTS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281635
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1235 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC
FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1222 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS THAT REFLECTS
SATELLITE TRENDS AND INCORPORATES THE LATEST MESONET...ALONG WITH
HRRR OUTPUT.

PREV DISC...
928 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST SATELLITE TREND AND
TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET IN FIRST PERIOD GRIDS. SHORTWAVE ALONG
THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...WAS RACING SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD BE
VICINITY OF OUR INTERNATIONAL AREA NEAR 23Z. THIS FEATURE COULD
PROVIDE AN EXTRA KICK TO EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...MODIFIED 12Z KGYX RAOB
SHOWS CAPES AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG WHICH AGREES WELL WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS FOR LATER TODAY...WITH STRONG WINDS PRIMARY
CONCERN ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

PREV DISC...
6AM UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS MADE IT TO THE COASTLINE A LITTLE
BIT EARLIER THAN FORECAST. HAVE UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
REFLECT THIS. STILL A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN EYES TURN
TOWARD AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
QUEBEC. GIVEN A MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER/DRIER AIR
ALOFT... ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS BEING TAPPED. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS.

BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WHICH
WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. INCREASINGLY WARM
AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 2000 OR MORE CAPE. THIS
IS QUITE STRONG BY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. IN PART THIS
LARGE CAPE VALUE IS A RESULT OF THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH
WHICH CAUSES DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS IN AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
THE RESULT IS A CAPPING INVERSION WHICH HELPS SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY... AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO BAKE IN THE HEAT LONGER BEFORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ABLE TO STALL HEATING. THIS HIGH AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY COULD WELL GO UNTAPPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ABSENCE
OF A TRIGGER MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION AND INITIATE LIFTING.

IN THE SEARCH FOR A TRIGGER WE FIND A SURFACE FRONT / WIND SHIFT
LINE WHICH WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD REACH THE FOOTHILLS REGION OF MAINE PERHAPS
NEAR AUGUSTA BEFORE IT COLLIDES WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY THESE TWO BOUNDARIES... AND
THEIR POSSIBLE COLLISION... COULD SERVE AS THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM NEEDED TO GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SOURCE OF LIFT WOULD BE HEATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHICH LEADS TO MORE FOCUSED RISING MOTION OVER THE PEAKS.
OF THESE TWO SOURCES... THE COLLIDING BOUNDARIES SEEM TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY TO HELP OVERCOME THE CAP AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN
THIS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE A BIT LOWER DUE TO THE OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER... STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. OVERALL WIND SHEAR MIGHT BE JUST
UNDER WHAT IS NEEDED FOR CLASSIC SUPERCELLS... HOWEVER IT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR SUPERCELLS WITHIN LOCALLY
ENHANCED REGIONS OF SHEAR. THE TOTAL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ALSO
SUGGESTS HAIL TO BE A POSSIBILITY... AND THE WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS
WHICH WILL BE NEEDED TO OVERCOME THE CAP SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO BE A THREAT IN THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK
EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL AREAS OF BACK BUILDING ALONG THE COLLIDING
BOUNDARIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING INTO THE MID 90S OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER... ELEVATED INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS SO ANY STORMS WHICH ALREADY EXIST COULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
MARINE FOG COULD MAKE A RETURN TO THE MAINE COASTLINE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAD MOVED SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY GET
STALLED BY THE COLLISION WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND
EXTENDING TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE COULD
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER OVERALL STORM CHANCES ARE LOW. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY SO IF STORMS DO
FORM THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. BUT THE
CONFIDENCE IN STORM FORMATION IS FAIRLY LOW AS WARM AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE IN ALOFT... MAKING IT A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO BREAK THE
CAP. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR. JUST ABOUT
EVERYONE WILL EXCEED 80 DEGREES... EVEN TYPICALLY COOL ROCKLAND.
PORTLAND MAY FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES BEFORE A SEA BREEZE CUTS
HEATING SHORT. INLAND AREAS AND MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD BE IN
THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S...
BUT FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100 DEGREES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THEIR WAY OUT THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BEFORE PRECIPITATION COOLS THINGS DOWN. STORMS WILL
BENEFIT FROM WARM MUGGY AIR BUT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGER IN
CANADA AND ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 15 KTS HERE. WE COULD STILL SEE
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS ESPECIALLY.

FRIDAY WILL BE JUST A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT KEEPS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND SHOWERS OVER THE CARRABASSETT VALLEY AND TO THE NE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY WITH ITS PARENT SURFACE LOW
WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS OF NH AND MAINE.

ANOTHER SEEMINGLY UNANCHORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE PRECIPITATION EVENTS TEND TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS AND ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
STATIONARY OR SLOW MOVING BOUNDARIES (SEA BREEZES... OUTFLOWS...
ETC) THAT WILL BE HARD TO DEFINE AHEAD OF TIME. THUS IT WILL BE
HARD TO PINPOINT WHO WILL GET RAIN AND WHO WONT ON ANY GIVEN
DAY... SUCH IS THE NATURE OF SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA WIDE TODAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND POSSIBLY INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. COULD SEE
THE RETURN OF MARINE FOG AND CLOUDS TONIGHT TO THE MAINE COAST AND
VALLEY FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY MORNING MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. ON
SATURDAY... SCATTERED MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR KHIE AND KLEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA BUT MAY BRUSH
NEAR 5 FT IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEK EVEN THOUGH SPEEDS
SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW 12 KTS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281635
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1235 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC
FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1222 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS THAT REFLECTS
SATELLITE TRENDS AND INCORPORATES THE LATEST MESONET...ALONG WITH
HRRR OUTPUT.

PREV DISC...
928 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST SATELLITE TREND AND
TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET IN FIRST PERIOD GRIDS. SHORTWAVE ALONG
THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...WAS RACING SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD BE
VICINITY OF OUR INTERNATIONAL AREA NEAR 23Z. THIS FEATURE COULD
PROVIDE AN EXTRA KICK TO EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...MODIFIED 12Z KGYX RAOB
SHOWS CAPES AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG WHICH AGREES WELL WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS FOR LATER TODAY...WITH STRONG WINDS PRIMARY
CONCERN ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

PREV DISC...
6AM UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS MADE IT TO THE COASTLINE A LITTLE
BIT EARLIER THAN FORECAST. HAVE UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
REFLECT THIS. STILL A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN EYES TURN
TOWARD AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
QUEBEC. GIVEN A MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER/DRIER AIR
ALOFT... ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS BEING TAPPED. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS.

BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WHICH
WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. INCREASINGLY WARM
AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 2000 OR MORE CAPE. THIS
IS QUITE STRONG BY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. IN PART THIS
LARGE CAPE VALUE IS A RESULT OF THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH
WHICH CAUSES DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS IN AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
THE RESULT IS A CAPPING INVERSION WHICH HELPS SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY... AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO BAKE IN THE HEAT LONGER BEFORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ABLE TO STALL HEATING. THIS HIGH AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY COULD WELL GO UNTAPPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ABSENCE
OF A TRIGGER MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION AND INITIATE LIFTING.

IN THE SEARCH FOR A TRIGGER WE FIND A SURFACE FRONT / WIND SHIFT
LINE WHICH WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD REACH THE FOOTHILLS REGION OF MAINE PERHAPS
NEAR AUGUSTA BEFORE IT COLLIDES WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY THESE TWO BOUNDARIES... AND
THEIR POSSIBLE COLLISION... COULD SERVE AS THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM NEEDED TO GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SOURCE OF LIFT WOULD BE HEATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHICH LEADS TO MORE FOCUSED RISING MOTION OVER THE PEAKS.
OF THESE TWO SOURCES... THE COLLIDING BOUNDARIES SEEM TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY TO HELP OVERCOME THE CAP AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN
THIS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE A BIT LOWER DUE TO THE OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER... STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. OVERALL WIND SHEAR MIGHT BE JUST
UNDER WHAT IS NEEDED FOR CLASSIC SUPERCELLS... HOWEVER IT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR SUPERCELLS WITHIN LOCALLY
ENHANCED REGIONS OF SHEAR. THE TOTAL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ALSO
SUGGESTS HAIL TO BE A POSSIBILITY... AND THE WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS
WHICH WILL BE NEEDED TO OVERCOME THE CAP SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO BE A THREAT IN THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK
EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL AREAS OF BACK BUILDING ALONG THE COLLIDING
BOUNDARIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING INTO THE MID 90S OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER... ELEVATED INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS SO ANY STORMS WHICH ALREADY EXIST COULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
MARINE FOG COULD MAKE A RETURN TO THE MAINE COASTLINE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAD MOVED SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY GET
STALLED BY THE COLLISION WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND
EXTENDING TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE COULD
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER OVERALL STORM CHANCES ARE LOW. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY SO IF STORMS DO
FORM THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. BUT THE
CONFIDENCE IN STORM FORMATION IS FAIRLY LOW AS WARM AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE IN ALOFT... MAKING IT A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO BREAK THE
CAP. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR. JUST ABOUT
EVERYONE WILL EXCEED 80 DEGREES... EVEN TYPICALLY COOL ROCKLAND.
PORTLAND MAY FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES BEFORE A SEA BREEZE CUTS
HEATING SHORT. INLAND AREAS AND MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD BE IN
THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S...
BUT FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100 DEGREES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THEIR WAY OUT THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BEFORE PRECIPITATION COOLS THINGS DOWN. STORMS WILL
BENEFIT FROM WARM MUGGY AIR BUT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGER IN
CANADA AND ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 15 KTS HERE. WE COULD STILL SEE
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS ESPECIALLY.

FRIDAY WILL BE JUST A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT KEEPS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND SHOWERS OVER THE CARRABASSETT VALLEY AND TO THE NE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY WITH ITS PARENT SURFACE LOW
WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS OF NH AND MAINE.

ANOTHER SEEMINGLY UNANCHORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE PRECIPITATION EVENTS TEND TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS AND ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
STATIONARY OR SLOW MOVING BOUNDARIES (SEA BREEZES... OUTFLOWS...
ETC) THAT WILL BE HARD TO DEFINE AHEAD OF TIME. THUS IT WILL BE
HARD TO PINPOINT WHO WILL GET RAIN AND WHO WONT ON ANY GIVEN
DAY... SUCH IS THE NATURE OF SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA WIDE TODAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND POSSIBLY INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. COULD SEE
THE RETURN OF MARINE FOG AND CLOUDS TONIGHT TO THE MAINE COAST AND
VALLEY FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY MORNING MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. ON
SATURDAY... SCATTERED MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR KHIE AND KLEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA BUT MAY BRUSH
NEAR 5 FT IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEK EVEN THOUGH SPEEDS
SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW 12 KTS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281438
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1037 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND POSSIBLY
RHODE ISLAND TODAY. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 1 OR 2 PM
  MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND***

OVERALL...A RATHER COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN SETUP ON CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  LOW CLOUDS HAVE
BURNED OFF ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY LATE MORNING...EXCEPT FOR
AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.  EVEN IN THESE LOCATIONS...SHOULD SEE
SKIES BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

STRONG EARLY MORNING SHORTWAVE THAT CROSSED NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WAS
MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION.  IN ITS WAKE...THERE WAS SOME
SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL AT LEAST ALLOW FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 AND IT WILL BE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  WILL GO OVER
BOTH THE FAVORABLE AND UNFAVORABLE INGREDIENTS FOR CONVECTION.

1) FAVORABLE:

THE DEPARTING FIRST SHORTWAVE ACTUALLY HAS DELIVERED 500 MB TEMPS OF
-12C TO EASTERN MA LATE THIS MORNING...WHICH IS QUITE COLD ALOFT
CONSIDERING OUR AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE.  THEREFORE...WE SHOULD HAVE
NO PROBLEM ATTAINING 2000 TO 3000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.  QUITE HIGH FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.  AT
THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING DOWN ALONG THE
EASTERN MA COAST.  IN ADDITION...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL BE
INCREASING ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

2)UNFAVORABLE:

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE CREATED SUBSIDENCE AND WHILE IT WILL HELP TO
ALLOW HIGH CAPE TO DEVELOP...DRY MID LEVEL AIR MAY ATTEMPT TO
CUTOFF ANY UPDRAFTS.  THIS IS PROBABLY ONE OF THE MAIN REASONS THAT
SEVERAL MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH QPF.  ALTHOUGH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE...LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE QUITE WEAK WHICH
WILL BE ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR.  FINALLY...500 MB TEMPS ALONG THE
EASTERN MA COAST WARM FROM -12C AROUND 18Z TO -9C BY 00Z.

SO OVERALL...THERE ARE QUITE A BIT OF MIXED SIGNALS FROM MID
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WE DO THINK THAT THERE SHOULD AT LEAST BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI
WITH HELP FROM SOME CONVERGENCE ON THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.  MANY HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS IN FACT SHOW THAT.  HIT AND MISS ACTIVITY MAY
EXTEND INTO CENTRAL MA WITH THE HELP OF THE TERRAIN.  IN FACT...MAY
EVEN SEE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES ALTHOUGH
PROBABLY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

IF THOSE LIMITING FACTORS ARE OVERCOME...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...GIVEN VERY HIGH CAPES AND RATHER
COLD 500 MB TEMPS THROUGH 19 OR 20Z.  BEST SHOT WILL BE ON THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOMETHING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED WITH DRY
WEATHER DOMINATING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES.  IT COULD BE
ONE OF THOSE SCENARIOS WHERE WE COULD END UP WITH JUST A FEW LOW
TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS IF TOO MUCH DRY AIR ENTRAINS.  HOWEVER...THERE
ALSO IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED/LOCALIZED HIGH END SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL/MICROBURST GIVEN THE ABOVE
REASONING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT A
QUIET NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. WEAK
FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THAT IT WONT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE IS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND WHERE PRECIP
OCCURS TODAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW BRINGING
18-19C 850MB TEMPS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S LEADING
TO HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER
ON WEDNESDAY IF LOCATIONS REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...ESP
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT FORECAST
DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM AND HUMID THU
* SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THU/THU NIGHT
* DRIER/LESS HUMID FRI THRU MON BUT STILL WARM

WED NIGHT/THU/THU NIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT
INTO THU. THUS DRY WEATHER TO START THIS PERIOD HOWEVER THE RISK OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS INCREASES LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS POTENT
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CURRENTLY EXITING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINS TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST.
APPEARS TIMING OF THE FRONT COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WELL AFTER
PEAKING HEATING. THIS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SHEAR KEEPS THE RISK
LOW FOR STRONG CONVECTION LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. HOWEVER GOOD
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THIS TROUGH SUGGEST AT LEAST SHOWERS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. PWATS ABOVE NORMAL AND DEW PTS 65 TO 70 WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH STILL 2 DAYS AWAY WILL NEED TO
MONITOR LATER MODEL TRENDS.

OTHERWISE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. A MODEL BLEND OFFERS HIGHS U80S TO L90S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW/VORTEX SETS UP OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAY THIS TIME
PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND MEAN TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL /HIGHS MU80S/ AND LOWS IN THE 60S ALONG WITH TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY AS DEW PTS AVERAGE IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM JET SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THERE WILL BE THE RISK OF SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES. NOT A WASHOUT BUT THE
RISK OF CONVECTION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR ALL LOCATIONS RIGHT NOW
EXCEPT FOR A NARROW BAND OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST...WHICH
SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AFTER 18Z WHILE
ACTIVITY WILL BE HIT AND MISS...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MOST SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT
IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS SE MASS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING AROUND
5K. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS BY 15 OR
16Z AS WINDS ARE ALREADY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HITTING THE TERMINAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NGT/THU...PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG WED NGT BUT QUICKLY IMPROVING
TO VFR THU MORNING. LOW PROB THAT MVFR/IFR IN STRATUS LINGERS ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST THU. THEN UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICK THIS FOG/STRATUS
BURNS OFF SOUTH COAST.

THU NIGHT...VFR-MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE.

FRI AND SAT...VFR LIKELY. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE HIGHEST
RISK ACROSS OUR WATERS ADJACENT TO EASTERN MA. OTHERWISE FOG AND
STRATUS WILL BE THE ISSUE TONIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NIGHT AND THU...FAIRLY TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS. POSSIBLE PATCHY
FOG IN HUMID AIRMASS.

THU NIGHT...MODEST SSW WIND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE.

FRI AND SAT...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
MAY ENTER THE WATERS SAT. WSW WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281339
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
939 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC
FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

928 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST SATELLITE TREND AND
TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET IN FIRST PERIOD GRIDS. SHORTWAVE ALONG
THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...WAS RACING SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD
BE VICINITY OF OUR INTERNATIONAL AREA NEAR 23Z. THIS FEATURE COULD
PROVIDE AN EXTRA KICK TO EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...MODIFIED 12Z KGYX RAOB
SHOWS CAPES AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG WHICH AGREES WELL WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS FOR LATER TODAY...WITH STRONG WINDS
PRIMARY CONCERN ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

PREV DISC...
6AM UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS MADE IT TO THE COASTLINE A LITTLE
BIT EARLIER THAN FORECAST. HAVE UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
REFLECT THIS. STILL A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN EYES TURN
TOWARD AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
QUEBEC. GIVEN A MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER/DRIER AIR
ALOFT... ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS BEING TAPPED. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS.

BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WHICH
WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. INCREASINGLY WARM
AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 2000 OR MORE CAPE. THIS
IS QUITE STRONG BY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. IN PART THIS
LARGE CAPE VALUE IS A RESULT OF THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH
WHICH CAUSES DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS IN AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
THE RESULT IS A CAPPING INVERSION WHICH HELPS SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY... AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO BAKE IN THE HEAT LONGER BEFORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ABLE TO STALL HEATING. THIS HIGH AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY COULD WELL GO UNTAPPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ABSENCE
OF A TRIGGER MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION AND INITIATE LIFTING.

IN THE SEARCH FOR A TRIGGER WE FIND A SURFACE FRONT / WIND SHIFT
LINE WHICH WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD REACH THE FOOTHILLS REGION OF MAINE PERHAPS
NEAR AUGUSTA BEFORE IT COLLIDES WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY THESE TWO BOUNDARIES... AND
THEIR POSSIBLE COLLISION... COULD SERVE AS THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM NEEDED TO GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SOURCE OF LIFT WOULD BE HEATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHICH LEADS TO MORE FOCUSED RISING MOTION OVER THE PEAKS.
OF THESE TWO SOURCES... THE COLLIDING BOUNDARIES SEEM TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY TO HELP OVERCOME THE CAP AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN
THIS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE A BIT LOWER DUE TO THE OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER... STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. OVERALL WIND SHEAR MIGHT BE JUST
UNDER WHAT IS NEEDED FOR CLASSIC SUPERCELLS... HOWEVER IT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR SUPERCELLS WITHIN LOCALLY
ENHANCED REGIONS OF SHEAR. THE TOTAL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ALSO
SUGGESTS HAIL TO BE A POSSIBILITY... AND THE WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS
WHICH WILL BE NEEDED TO OVERCOME THE CAP SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO BE A THREAT IN THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK
EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL AREAS OF BACK BUILDING ALONG THE COLLIDING
BOUNDARIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING INTO THE MID 90S OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER... ELEVATED INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS SO ANY STORMS WHICH ALREADY EXIST COULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
MARINE FOG COULD MAKE A RETURN TO THE MAINE COASTLINE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAD MOVED SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY GET
STALLED BY THE COLLISION WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND
EXTENDING TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE COULD
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER OVERALL STORM CHANCES ARE LOW. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY SO IF STORMS DO
FORM THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. BUT THE
CONFIDENCE IN STORM FORMATION IS FAIRLY LOW AS WARM AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE IN ALOFT... MAKING IT A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO BREAK THE
CAP. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR. JUST ABOUT
EVERYONE WILL EXCEED 80 DEGREES... EVEN TYPICALLY COOL ROCKLAND.
PORTLAND MAY FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES BEFORE A SEA BREEZE CUTS
HEATING SHORT. INLAND AREAS AND MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD BE IN
THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S...
BUT FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100 DEGREES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THEIR WAY OUT THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BEFORE PRECIPITATION COOLS THINGS DOWN. STORMS WILL
BENEFIT FROM WARM MUGGY AIR BUT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGER IN
CANADA AND ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 15 KTS HERE. WE COULD STILL SEE
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS ESPECIALLY.

FRIDAY WILL BE JUST A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT KEEPS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND SHOWERS OVER THE CARRABASSETT VALLEY AND TO THE NE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY WITH ITS PARENT SURFACE LOW
WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS OF NH AND MAINE.

ANOTHER SEEMINGLY UNANCHORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE PRECIPITATION EVENTS TEND TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS AND ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
STATIONARY OR SLOW MOVING BOUNDARIES (SEA BREEZES... OUTFLOWS...
ETC) THAT WILL BE HARD TO DEFINE AHEAD OF TIME. THUS IT WILL BE
HARD TO PINPOINT WHO WILL GET RAIN AND WHO WONT ON ANY GIVEN
DAY... SUCH IS THE NATURE OF SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA WIDE TODAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND POSSIBLY INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. COULD SEE
THE RETURN OF MARINE FOG AND CLOUDS TONIGHT TO THE MAINE COAST AND
VALLEY FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY MORNING MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. ON
SATURDAY... SCATTERED MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR KHIE AND KLEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA BUT MAY BRUSH
NEAR 5 FT IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEK EVEN THOUGH SPEEDS
SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW 12 KTS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 281339
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
939 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC
FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

928 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST SATELLITE TREND AND
TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET IN FIRST PERIOD GRIDS. SHORTWAVE ALONG
THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...WAS RACING SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD
BE VICINITY OF OUR INTERNATIONAL AREA NEAR 23Z. THIS FEATURE COULD
PROVIDE AN EXTRA KICK TO EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...MODIFIED 12Z KGYX RAOB
SHOWS CAPES AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG WHICH AGREES WELL WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS FOR LATER TODAY...WITH STRONG WINDS
PRIMARY CONCERN ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

PREV DISC...
6AM UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS MADE IT TO THE COASTLINE A LITTLE
BIT EARLIER THAN FORECAST. HAVE UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
REFLECT THIS. STILL A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN EYES TURN
TOWARD AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
QUEBEC. GIVEN A MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER/DRIER AIR
ALOFT... ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS BEING TAPPED. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS.

BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WHICH
WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. INCREASINGLY WARM
AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 2000 OR MORE CAPE. THIS
IS QUITE STRONG BY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. IN PART THIS
LARGE CAPE VALUE IS A RESULT OF THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH
WHICH CAUSES DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS IN AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
THE RESULT IS A CAPPING INVERSION WHICH HELPS SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY... AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO BAKE IN THE HEAT LONGER BEFORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ABLE TO STALL HEATING. THIS HIGH AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY COULD WELL GO UNTAPPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ABSENCE
OF A TRIGGER MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION AND INITIATE LIFTING.

IN THE SEARCH FOR A TRIGGER WE FIND A SURFACE FRONT / WIND SHIFT
LINE WHICH WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD REACH THE FOOTHILLS REGION OF MAINE PERHAPS
NEAR AUGUSTA BEFORE IT COLLIDES WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY THESE TWO BOUNDARIES... AND
THEIR POSSIBLE COLLISION... COULD SERVE AS THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM NEEDED TO GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SOURCE OF LIFT WOULD BE HEATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHICH LEADS TO MORE FOCUSED RISING MOTION OVER THE PEAKS.
OF THESE TWO SOURCES... THE COLLIDING BOUNDARIES SEEM TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY TO HELP OVERCOME THE CAP AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN
THIS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE A BIT LOWER DUE TO THE OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER... STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. OVERALL WIND SHEAR MIGHT BE JUST
UNDER WHAT IS NEEDED FOR CLASSIC SUPERCELLS... HOWEVER IT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR SUPERCELLS WITHIN LOCALLY
ENHANCED REGIONS OF SHEAR. THE TOTAL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ALSO
SUGGESTS HAIL TO BE A POSSIBILITY... AND THE WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS
WHICH WILL BE NEEDED TO OVERCOME THE CAP SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO BE A THREAT IN THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK
EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL AREAS OF BACK BUILDING ALONG THE COLLIDING
BOUNDARIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING INTO THE MID 90S OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER... ELEVATED INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS SO ANY STORMS WHICH ALREADY EXIST COULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
MARINE FOG COULD MAKE A RETURN TO THE MAINE COASTLINE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAD MOVED SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY GET
STALLED BY THE COLLISION WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND
EXTENDING TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE COULD
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER OVERALL STORM CHANCES ARE LOW. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY SO IF STORMS DO
FORM THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. BUT THE
CONFIDENCE IN STORM FORMATION IS FAIRLY LOW AS WARM AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE IN ALOFT... MAKING IT A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO BREAK THE
CAP. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR. JUST ABOUT
EVERYONE WILL EXCEED 80 DEGREES... EVEN TYPICALLY COOL ROCKLAND.
PORTLAND MAY FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES BEFORE A SEA BREEZE CUTS
HEATING SHORT. INLAND AREAS AND MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD BE IN
THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S...
BUT FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100 DEGREES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THEIR WAY OUT THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BEFORE PRECIPITATION COOLS THINGS DOWN. STORMS WILL
BENEFIT FROM WARM MUGGY AIR BUT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGER IN
CANADA AND ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 15 KTS HERE. WE COULD STILL SEE
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS ESPECIALLY.

FRIDAY WILL BE JUST A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT KEEPS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND SHOWERS OVER THE CARRABASSETT VALLEY AND TO THE NE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY WITH ITS PARENT SURFACE LOW
WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS OF NH AND MAINE.

ANOTHER SEEMINGLY UNANCHORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE PRECIPITATION EVENTS TEND TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS AND ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
STATIONARY OR SLOW MOVING BOUNDARIES (SEA BREEZES... OUTFLOWS...
ETC) THAT WILL BE HARD TO DEFINE AHEAD OF TIME. THUS IT WILL BE
HARD TO PINPOINT WHO WILL GET RAIN AND WHO WONT ON ANY GIVEN
DAY... SUCH IS THE NATURE OF SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA WIDE TODAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND POSSIBLY INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. COULD SEE
THE RETURN OF MARINE FOG AND CLOUDS TONIGHT TO THE MAINE COAST AND
VALLEY FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY MORNING MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. ON
SATURDAY... SCATTERED MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR KHIE AND KLEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA BUT MAY BRUSH
NEAR 5 FT IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEK EVEN THOUGH SPEEDS
SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW 12 KTS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 281339
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
939 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC
FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

928 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST SATELLITE TREND AND
TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET IN FIRST PERIOD GRIDS. SHORTWAVE ALONG
THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...WAS RACING SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD
BE VICINITY OF OUR INTERNATIONAL AREA NEAR 23Z. THIS FEATURE COULD
PROVIDE AN EXTRA KICK TO EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...MODIFIED 12Z KGYX RAOB
SHOWS CAPES AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG WHICH AGREES WELL WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS FOR LATER TODAY...WITH STRONG WINDS
PRIMARY CONCERN ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

PREV DISC...
6AM UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS MADE IT TO THE COASTLINE A LITTLE
BIT EARLIER THAN FORECAST. HAVE UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
REFLECT THIS. STILL A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN EYES TURN
TOWARD AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
QUEBEC. GIVEN A MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER/DRIER AIR
ALOFT... ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS BEING TAPPED. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS.

BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WHICH
WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. INCREASINGLY WARM
AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 2000 OR MORE CAPE. THIS
IS QUITE STRONG BY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. IN PART THIS
LARGE CAPE VALUE IS A RESULT OF THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH
WHICH CAUSES DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS IN AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
THE RESULT IS A CAPPING INVERSION WHICH HELPS SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY... AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO BAKE IN THE HEAT LONGER BEFORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ABLE TO STALL HEATING. THIS HIGH AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY COULD WELL GO UNTAPPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ABSENCE
OF A TRIGGER MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION AND INITIATE LIFTING.

IN THE SEARCH FOR A TRIGGER WE FIND A SURFACE FRONT / WIND SHIFT
LINE WHICH WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD REACH THE FOOTHILLS REGION OF MAINE PERHAPS
NEAR AUGUSTA BEFORE IT COLLIDES WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY THESE TWO BOUNDARIES... AND
THEIR POSSIBLE COLLISION... COULD SERVE AS THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM NEEDED TO GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SOURCE OF LIFT WOULD BE HEATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHICH LEADS TO MORE FOCUSED RISING MOTION OVER THE PEAKS.
OF THESE TWO SOURCES... THE COLLIDING BOUNDARIES SEEM TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY TO HELP OVERCOME THE CAP AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN
THIS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE A BIT LOWER DUE TO THE OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER... STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. OVERALL WIND SHEAR MIGHT BE JUST
UNDER WHAT IS NEEDED FOR CLASSIC SUPERCELLS... HOWEVER IT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR SUPERCELLS WITHIN LOCALLY
ENHANCED REGIONS OF SHEAR. THE TOTAL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ALSO
SUGGESTS HAIL TO BE A POSSIBILITY... AND THE WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS
WHICH WILL BE NEEDED TO OVERCOME THE CAP SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO BE A THREAT IN THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK
EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL AREAS OF BACK BUILDING ALONG THE COLLIDING
BOUNDARIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING INTO THE MID 90S OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER... ELEVATED INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS SO ANY STORMS WHICH ALREADY EXIST COULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
MARINE FOG COULD MAKE A RETURN TO THE MAINE COASTLINE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAD MOVED SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY GET
STALLED BY THE COLLISION WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND
EXTENDING TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE COULD
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER OVERALL STORM CHANCES ARE LOW. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY SO IF STORMS DO
FORM THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. BUT THE
CONFIDENCE IN STORM FORMATION IS FAIRLY LOW AS WARM AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE IN ALOFT... MAKING IT A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO BREAK THE
CAP. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR. JUST ABOUT
EVERYONE WILL EXCEED 80 DEGREES... EVEN TYPICALLY COOL ROCKLAND.
PORTLAND MAY FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES BEFORE A SEA BREEZE CUTS
HEATING SHORT. INLAND AREAS AND MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD BE IN
THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S...
BUT FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100 DEGREES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THEIR WAY OUT THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BEFORE PRECIPITATION COOLS THINGS DOWN. STORMS WILL
BENEFIT FROM WARM MUGGY AIR BUT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGER IN
CANADA AND ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 15 KTS HERE. WE COULD STILL SEE
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS ESPECIALLY.

FRIDAY WILL BE JUST A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT KEEPS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND SHOWERS OVER THE CARRABASSETT VALLEY AND TO THE NE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY WITH ITS PARENT SURFACE LOW
WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS OF NH AND MAINE.

ANOTHER SEEMINGLY UNANCHORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE PRECIPITATION EVENTS TEND TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS AND ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
STATIONARY OR SLOW MOVING BOUNDARIES (SEA BREEZES... OUTFLOWS...
ETC) THAT WILL BE HARD TO DEFINE AHEAD OF TIME. THUS IT WILL BE
HARD TO PINPOINT WHO WILL GET RAIN AND WHO WONT ON ANY GIVEN
DAY... SUCH IS THE NATURE OF SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA WIDE TODAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND POSSIBLY INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. COULD SEE
THE RETURN OF MARINE FOG AND CLOUDS TONIGHT TO THE MAINE COAST AND
VALLEY FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY MORNING MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. ON
SATURDAY... SCATTERED MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR KHIE AND KLEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA BUT MAY BRUSH
NEAR 5 FT IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEK EVEN THOUGH SPEEDS
SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW 12 KTS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281339
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
939 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC
FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

928 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST SATELLITE TREND AND
TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET IN FIRST PERIOD GRIDS. SHORTWAVE ALONG
THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...WAS RACING SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD
BE VICINITY OF OUR INTERNATIONAL AREA NEAR 23Z. THIS FEATURE COULD
PROVIDE AN EXTRA KICK TO EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...MODIFIED 12Z KGYX RAOB
SHOWS CAPES AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG WHICH AGREES WELL WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS FOR LATER TODAY...WITH STRONG WINDS
PRIMARY CONCERN ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

PREV DISC...
6AM UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS MADE IT TO THE COASTLINE A LITTLE
BIT EARLIER THAN FORECAST. HAVE UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
REFLECT THIS. STILL A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN EYES TURN
TOWARD AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
QUEBEC. GIVEN A MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER/DRIER AIR
ALOFT... ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS BEING TAPPED. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS.

BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WHICH
WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. INCREASINGLY WARM
AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 2000 OR MORE CAPE. THIS
IS QUITE STRONG BY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. IN PART THIS
LARGE CAPE VALUE IS A RESULT OF THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH
WHICH CAUSES DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS IN AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
THE RESULT IS A CAPPING INVERSION WHICH HELPS SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY... AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO BAKE IN THE HEAT LONGER BEFORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ABLE TO STALL HEATING. THIS HIGH AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY COULD WELL GO UNTAPPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ABSENCE
OF A TRIGGER MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION AND INITIATE LIFTING.

IN THE SEARCH FOR A TRIGGER WE FIND A SURFACE FRONT / WIND SHIFT
LINE WHICH WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD REACH THE FOOTHILLS REGION OF MAINE PERHAPS
NEAR AUGUSTA BEFORE IT COLLIDES WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY THESE TWO BOUNDARIES... AND
THEIR POSSIBLE COLLISION... COULD SERVE AS THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM NEEDED TO GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SOURCE OF LIFT WOULD BE HEATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHICH LEADS TO MORE FOCUSED RISING MOTION OVER THE PEAKS.
OF THESE TWO SOURCES... THE COLLIDING BOUNDARIES SEEM TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY TO HELP OVERCOME THE CAP AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN
THIS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE A BIT LOWER DUE TO THE OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER... STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. OVERALL WIND SHEAR MIGHT BE JUST
UNDER WHAT IS NEEDED FOR CLASSIC SUPERCELLS... HOWEVER IT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR SUPERCELLS WITHIN LOCALLY
ENHANCED REGIONS OF SHEAR. THE TOTAL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ALSO
SUGGESTS HAIL TO BE A POSSIBILITY... AND THE WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS
WHICH WILL BE NEEDED TO OVERCOME THE CAP SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO BE A THREAT IN THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK
EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL AREAS OF BACK BUILDING ALONG THE COLLIDING
BOUNDARIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING INTO THE MID 90S OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER... ELEVATED INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS SO ANY STORMS WHICH ALREADY EXIST COULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
MARINE FOG COULD MAKE A RETURN TO THE MAINE COASTLINE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAD MOVED SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY GET
STALLED BY THE COLLISION WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND
EXTENDING TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE COULD
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER OVERALL STORM CHANCES ARE LOW. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY SO IF STORMS DO
FORM THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. BUT THE
CONFIDENCE IN STORM FORMATION IS FAIRLY LOW AS WARM AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE IN ALOFT... MAKING IT A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO BREAK THE
CAP. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR. JUST ABOUT
EVERYONE WILL EXCEED 80 DEGREES... EVEN TYPICALLY COOL ROCKLAND.
PORTLAND MAY FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES BEFORE A SEA BREEZE CUTS
HEATING SHORT. INLAND AREAS AND MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD BE IN
THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S...
BUT FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100 DEGREES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THEIR WAY OUT THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BEFORE PRECIPITATION COOLS THINGS DOWN. STORMS WILL
BENEFIT FROM WARM MUGGY AIR BUT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGER IN
CANADA AND ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 15 KTS HERE. WE COULD STILL SEE
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS ESPECIALLY.

FRIDAY WILL BE JUST A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT KEEPS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND SHOWERS OVER THE CARRABASSETT VALLEY AND TO THE NE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY WITH ITS PARENT SURFACE LOW
WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS OF NH AND MAINE.

ANOTHER SEEMINGLY UNANCHORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE PRECIPITATION EVENTS TEND TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS AND ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
STATIONARY OR SLOW MOVING BOUNDARIES (SEA BREEZES... OUTFLOWS...
ETC) THAT WILL BE HARD TO DEFINE AHEAD OF TIME. THUS IT WILL BE
HARD TO PINPOINT WHO WILL GET RAIN AND WHO WONT ON ANY GIVEN
DAY... SUCH IS THE NATURE OF SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA WIDE TODAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND POSSIBLY INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. COULD SEE
THE RETURN OF MARINE FOG AND CLOUDS TONIGHT TO THE MAINE COAST AND
VALLEY FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY MORNING MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. ON
SATURDAY... SCATTERED MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR KHIE AND KLEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA BUT MAY BRUSH
NEAR 5 FT IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEK EVEN THOUGH SPEEDS
SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW 12 KTS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281255
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
855 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND POSSIBLY
RHODE ISLAND TODAY. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

855 AM UPDATE...

CANCELLED DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS WESTERN MA AS VISIBILITIES WERE
RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY MID MORNING.
ISOLATED POCKETS OF PATCHY FOG IN THIS REGION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
UNTIL ABOUT 10 AM...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY IN THIS REGION AS
WELL.  OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS COVERED EASTERN CT/RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA BUT THESE SHOULD BURN OFF IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.  PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION BY NOON.  WILL HAVE MORE ON THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
LATER THIS MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  STILL A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY AS OUTLINED BELOW.

TODAY...

*** A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLE A SEVERE STORM TODAY ACROSS EASTERN
  MASSACHUSETTS ***

TRICKY CONVECTIVE FORECAST TODAY AS STRONG LEAD SHORT WAVE
INTRUDING ACROSS VT/NH AND INTO NORTHERN MA AT 7 AM. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS CONVECTION
DEPARTS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. BEHIND THIS FEATURE H5 TEMPS COOL TO
ABOUT -12C WITH COLDEST VALUES OVER EASTERN MA. THIS WILL STEEPEN
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SHORT WAVE
THERE IS WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH THE COLUMN DRYING FROM THE
TOP DOWNWARD. IN FACT AFTER 18Z HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO RISE ALONG
WITH H5 TEMPS WARMING. THIS MAY SUPPRESS CONVECTION SOMEWHAT. THE
HI RES GUID SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH VERY LITTLE CONVECTION AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NH SEACOAST SOUTHWARD INTO CAPE
ANN...BOSTON AND THEN COASTAL PLYMOUTH AND CAPE COD. WHAT/S LIKELY
HAPPENING HERE IS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES
IN EASTERN MA IS PROVIDING THE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG
WITH HIGHER DEW PT AIR/SBCAPES YIELDING GREATER INSTABILITY ALONG
THE EASTERN MA COAST.

A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUBSTANCE WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE DEPARTING THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
BELIEVE THE MID-LEVEL DRYING WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. ANTICIPATE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE TO BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE BEST AREA
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN MASS...ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHEN
LOCATIONS REACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. BEST LOCATION WITHIN THE
INTERIOR WILL BE ACROSS THE TERRAIN. APPEARS THAT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z WITH THE BEST CHANCE BETWEEN 21-00Z.

THUNDERSTORMS TODAY COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL
THANKS TO A DESCENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER THE REGION.
IN FACT GUIDANCE SHOWS ABOUT 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30-40 KTS. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS ALSO FAVOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS.  PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AND IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THEY MAY TRAIN
RESULTING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

OVERALL...MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AS IT WILL BE A HIT OR
MISS TYPE OF COVERAGE. HOWEVER HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS ACROSS EASTERN
MASS WHERE CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY
WHICH COULD CAUSE...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE A HOT AND
HUMID DAY WILL BE IN STORE WITH A FEW SITES HITTING AT OR NEAR 90F
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS WILL RESULT
IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT A
QUIET NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. WEAK
FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THAT IT WONT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE IS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND WHERE PRECIP
OCCURS TODAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW BRINGING
18-19C 850MB TEMPS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S LEADING
TO HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER
ON WEDNESDAY IF LOCATIONS REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...ESP
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT FORECAST
DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM AND HUMID THU
* SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THU/THU NIGHT
* DRIER/LESS HUMID FRI THRU MON BUT STILL WARM

WED NIGHT/THU/THU NIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT
INTO THU. THUS DRY WEATHER TO START THIS PERIOD HOWEVER THE RISK OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS INCREASES LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS POTENT
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CURRENTLY EXITING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINS TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST.
APPEARS TIMING OF THE FRONT COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WELL AFTER
PEAKING HEATING. THIS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SHEAR KEEPS THE RISK
LOW FOR STRONG CONVECTION LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. HOWEVER GOOD
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THIS TROUGH SUGGEST AT LEAST SHOWERS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. PWATS ABOVE NORMAL AND DEW PTS 65 TO 70 WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH STILL 2 DAYS AWAY WILL NEED TO
MONITOR LATER MODEL TRENDS.

OTHERWISE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. A MODEL BLEND OFFERS HIGHS U80S TO L90S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW/VORTEX SETS UP OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAY THIS TIME
PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND MEAN TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL /HIGHS MU80S/ AND LOWS IN THE 60S ALONG WITH TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY AS DEW PTS AVERAGE IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM JET SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THERE WILL BE THE RISK OF SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES. NOT A WASHOUT BUT THE
RISK OF CONVECTION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...

7 AM UPDATE...

IFR AND MVFR WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE VFR BY
MIDDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE ISLANDS WHERE IFR/MVFR MAY
LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z/09Z
TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===========================================================================

BEFORE 00Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRY WEATHER DOMINATES
OVERNIGHT...A FEW SPOT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NE MASS AROUND
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTH
COAST AND CT VALLEY. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE DROPPING
TERMINALS TO LIFR.

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
PATCHES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN
MA AFTER 18Z WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE HIT AND MISS...THE POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MOST SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT
IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS SE MASS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING AROUND
5K. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE AROUND 14-16Z.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HITTING THE TERMINAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NGT/THU...PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG WED NGT BUT QUICKLY IMPROVING
TO VFR THU MORNING. LOW PROB THAT MVFR/IFR IN STRATUS LINGERS ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST THU. THEN UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICK THIS FOG/STRATUS
BURNS OFF SOUTH COAST.

THU NIGHT...VFR-MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE.

FRI AND SAT...VFR LIKELY. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE HIGHEST
RISK ACROSS OUR WATERS ADJACENT TO EASTERN MA. OTHERWISE FOG AND
STRATUS WILL BE THE ISSUE TONIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NIGHT AND THU...FAIRLY TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS. POSSIBLE PATCHY
FOG IN HUMID AIRMASS.

THU NIGHT...MODEST SSW WIND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE.

FRI AND SAT...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
MAY ENTER THE WATERS SAT. WSW WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281255
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
855 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND POSSIBLY
RHODE ISLAND TODAY. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

855 AM UPDATE...

CANCELLED DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS WESTERN MA AS VISIBILITIES WERE
RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY MID MORNING.
ISOLATED POCKETS OF PATCHY FOG IN THIS REGION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
UNTIL ABOUT 10 AM...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY IN THIS REGION AS
WELL.  OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS COVERED EASTERN CT/RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA BUT THESE SHOULD BURN OFF IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.  PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION BY NOON.  WILL HAVE MORE ON THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
LATER THIS MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  STILL A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY AS OUTLINED BELOW.

TODAY...

*** A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLE A SEVERE STORM TODAY ACROSS EASTERN
  MASSACHUSETTS ***

TRICKY CONVECTIVE FORECAST TODAY AS STRONG LEAD SHORT WAVE
INTRUDING ACROSS VT/NH AND INTO NORTHERN MA AT 7 AM. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS CONVECTION
DEPARTS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. BEHIND THIS FEATURE H5 TEMPS COOL TO
ABOUT -12C WITH COLDEST VALUES OVER EASTERN MA. THIS WILL STEEPEN
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SHORT WAVE
THERE IS WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH THE COLUMN DRYING FROM THE
TOP DOWNWARD. IN FACT AFTER 18Z HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO RISE ALONG
WITH H5 TEMPS WARMING. THIS MAY SUPPRESS CONVECTION SOMEWHAT. THE
HI RES GUID SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH VERY LITTLE CONVECTION AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NH SEACOAST SOUTHWARD INTO CAPE
ANN...BOSTON AND THEN COASTAL PLYMOUTH AND CAPE COD. WHAT/S LIKELY
HAPPENING HERE IS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES
IN EASTERN MA IS PROVIDING THE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG
WITH HIGHER DEW PT AIR/SBCAPES YIELDING GREATER INSTABILITY ALONG
THE EASTERN MA COAST.

A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUBSTANCE WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE DEPARTING THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
BELIEVE THE MID-LEVEL DRYING WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. ANTICIPATE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE TO BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE BEST AREA
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN MASS...ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHEN
LOCATIONS REACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. BEST LOCATION WITHIN THE
INTERIOR WILL BE ACROSS THE TERRAIN. APPEARS THAT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z WITH THE BEST CHANCE BETWEEN 21-00Z.

THUNDERSTORMS TODAY COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL
THANKS TO A DESCENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER THE REGION.
IN FACT GUIDANCE SHOWS ABOUT 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30-40 KTS. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS ALSO FAVOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS.  PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AND IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THEY MAY TRAIN
RESULTING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

OVERALL...MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AS IT WILL BE A HIT OR
MISS TYPE OF COVERAGE. HOWEVER HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS ACROSS EASTERN
MASS WHERE CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY
WHICH COULD CAUSE...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE A HOT AND
HUMID DAY WILL BE IN STORE WITH A FEW SITES HITTING AT OR NEAR 90F
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS WILL RESULT
IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT A
QUIET NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. WEAK
FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THAT IT WONT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE IS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND WHERE PRECIP
OCCURS TODAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW BRINGING
18-19C 850MB TEMPS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S LEADING
TO HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER
ON WEDNESDAY IF LOCATIONS REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...ESP
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT FORECAST
DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM AND HUMID THU
* SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THU/THU NIGHT
* DRIER/LESS HUMID FRI THRU MON BUT STILL WARM

WED NIGHT/THU/THU NIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT
INTO THU. THUS DRY WEATHER TO START THIS PERIOD HOWEVER THE RISK OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS INCREASES LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS POTENT
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CURRENTLY EXITING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINS TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST.
APPEARS TIMING OF THE FRONT COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WELL AFTER
PEAKING HEATING. THIS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SHEAR KEEPS THE RISK
LOW FOR STRONG CONVECTION LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. HOWEVER GOOD
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THIS TROUGH SUGGEST AT LEAST SHOWERS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. PWATS ABOVE NORMAL AND DEW PTS 65 TO 70 WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH STILL 2 DAYS AWAY WILL NEED TO
MONITOR LATER MODEL TRENDS.

OTHERWISE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. A MODEL BLEND OFFERS HIGHS U80S TO L90S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW/VORTEX SETS UP OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAY THIS TIME
PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND MEAN TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL /HIGHS MU80S/ AND LOWS IN THE 60S ALONG WITH TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY AS DEW PTS AVERAGE IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM JET SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THERE WILL BE THE RISK OF SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES. NOT A WASHOUT BUT THE
RISK OF CONVECTION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...

7 AM UPDATE...

IFR AND MVFR WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE VFR BY
MIDDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE ISLANDS WHERE IFR/MVFR MAY
LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z/09Z
TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===========================================================================

BEFORE 00Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRY WEATHER DOMINATES
OVERNIGHT...A FEW SPOT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NE MASS AROUND
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTH
COAST AND CT VALLEY. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE DROPPING
TERMINALS TO LIFR.

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
PATCHES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN
MA AFTER 18Z WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE HIT AND MISS...THE POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MOST SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT
IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS SE MASS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING AROUND
5K. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE AROUND 14-16Z.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HITTING THE TERMINAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NGT/THU...PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG WED NGT BUT QUICKLY IMPROVING
TO VFR THU MORNING. LOW PROB THAT MVFR/IFR IN STRATUS LINGERS ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST THU. THEN UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICK THIS FOG/STRATUS
BURNS OFF SOUTH COAST.

THU NIGHT...VFR-MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE.

FRI AND SAT...VFR LIKELY. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE HIGHEST
RISK ACROSS OUR WATERS ADJACENT TO EASTERN MA. OTHERWISE FOG AND
STRATUS WILL BE THE ISSUE TONIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NIGHT AND THU...FAIRLY TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS. POSSIBLE PATCHY
FOG IN HUMID AIRMASS.

THU NIGHT...MODEST SSW WIND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE.

FRI AND SAT...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
MAY ENTER THE WATERS SAT. WSW WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281255
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
855 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND POSSIBLY
RHODE ISLAND TODAY. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

855 AM UPDATE...

CANCELLED DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS WESTERN MA AS VISIBILITIES WERE
RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY MID MORNING.
ISOLATED POCKETS OF PATCHY FOG IN THIS REGION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
UNTIL ABOUT 10 AM...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY IN THIS REGION AS
WELL.  OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS COVERED EASTERN CT/RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA BUT THESE SHOULD BURN OFF IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.  PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION BY NOON.  WILL HAVE MORE ON THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
LATER THIS MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  STILL A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY AS OUTLINED BELOW.

TODAY...

*** A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLE A SEVERE STORM TODAY ACROSS EASTERN
  MASSACHUSETTS ***

TRICKY CONVECTIVE FORECAST TODAY AS STRONG LEAD SHORT WAVE
INTRUDING ACROSS VT/NH AND INTO NORTHERN MA AT 7 AM. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS CONVECTION
DEPARTS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. BEHIND THIS FEATURE H5 TEMPS COOL TO
ABOUT -12C WITH COLDEST VALUES OVER EASTERN MA. THIS WILL STEEPEN
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SHORT WAVE
THERE IS WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH THE COLUMN DRYING FROM THE
TOP DOWNWARD. IN FACT AFTER 18Z HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO RISE ALONG
WITH H5 TEMPS WARMING. THIS MAY SUPPRESS CONVECTION SOMEWHAT. THE
HI RES GUID SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH VERY LITTLE CONVECTION AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NH SEACOAST SOUTHWARD INTO CAPE
ANN...BOSTON AND THEN COASTAL PLYMOUTH AND CAPE COD. WHAT/S LIKELY
HAPPENING HERE IS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES
IN EASTERN MA IS PROVIDING THE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG
WITH HIGHER DEW PT AIR/SBCAPES YIELDING GREATER INSTABILITY ALONG
THE EASTERN MA COAST.

A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUBSTANCE WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE DEPARTING THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
BELIEVE THE MID-LEVEL DRYING WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. ANTICIPATE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE TO BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE BEST AREA
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN MASS...ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHEN
LOCATIONS REACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. BEST LOCATION WITHIN THE
INTERIOR WILL BE ACROSS THE TERRAIN. APPEARS THAT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z WITH THE BEST CHANCE BETWEEN 21-00Z.

THUNDERSTORMS TODAY COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL
THANKS TO A DESCENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER THE REGION.
IN FACT GUIDANCE SHOWS ABOUT 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30-40 KTS. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS ALSO FAVOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS.  PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AND IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THEY MAY TRAIN
RESULTING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

OVERALL...MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AS IT WILL BE A HIT OR
MISS TYPE OF COVERAGE. HOWEVER HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS ACROSS EASTERN
MASS WHERE CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY
WHICH COULD CAUSE...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE A HOT AND
HUMID DAY WILL BE IN STORE WITH A FEW SITES HITTING AT OR NEAR 90F
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS WILL RESULT
IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT A
QUIET NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. WEAK
FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THAT IT WONT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE IS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND WHERE PRECIP
OCCURS TODAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW BRINGING
18-19C 850MB TEMPS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S LEADING
TO HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER
ON WEDNESDAY IF LOCATIONS REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...ESP
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT FORECAST
DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM AND HUMID THU
* SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THU/THU NIGHT
* DRIER/LESS HUMID FRI THRU MON BUT STILL WARM

WED NIGHT/THU/THU NIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT
INTO THU. THUS DRY WEATHER TO START THIS PERIOD HOWEVER THE RISK OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS INCREASES LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS POTENT
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CURRENTLY EXITING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINS TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST.
APPEARS TIMING OF THE FRONT COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WELL AFTER
PEAKING HEATING. THIS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SHEAR KEEPS THE RISK
LOW FOR STRONG CONVECTION LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. HOWEVER GOOD
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THIS TROUGH SUGGEST AT LEAST SHOWERS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. PWATS ABOVE NORMAL AND DEW PTS 65 TO 70 WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH STILL 2 DAYS AWAY WILL NEED TO
MONITOR LATER MODEL TRENDS.

OTHERWISE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. A MODEL BLEND OFFERS HIGHS U80S TO L90S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW/VORTEX SETS UP OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAY THIS TIME
PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND MEAN TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL /HIGHS MU80S/ AND LOWS IN THE 60S ALONG WITH TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY AS DEW PTS AVERAGE IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM JET SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THERE WILL BE THE RISK OF SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES. NOT A WASHOUT BUT THE
RISK OF CONVECTION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...

7 AM UPDATE...

IFR AND MVFR WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE VFR BY
MIDDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE ISLANDS WHERE IFR/MVFR MAY
LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z/09Z
TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===========================================================================

BEFORE 00Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRY WEATHER DOMINATES
OVERNIGHT...A FEW SPOT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NE MASS AROUND
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTH
COAST AND CT VALLEY. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE DROPPING
TERMINALS TO LIFR.

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
PATCHES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN
MA AFTER 18Z WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE HIT AND MISS...THE POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MOST SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT
IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS SE MASS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING AROUND
5K. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE AROUND 14-16Z.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HITTING THE TERMINAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NGT/THU...PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG WED NGT BUT QUICKLY IMPROVING
TO VFR THU MORNING. LOW PROB THAT MVFR/IFR IN STRATUS LINGERS ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST THU. THEN UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICK THIS FOG/STRATUS
BURNS OFF SOUTH COAST.

THU NIGHT...VFR-MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE.

FRI AND SAT...VFR LIKELY. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE HIGHEST
RISK ACROSS OUR WATERS ADJACENT TO EASTERN MA. OTHERWISE FOG AND
STRATUS WILL BE THE ISSUE TONIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NIGHT AND THU...FAIRLY TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS. POSSIBLE PATCHY
FOG IN HUMID AIRMASS.

THU NIGHT...MODEST SSW WIND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE.

FRI AND SAT...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
MAY ENTER THE WATERS SAT. WSW WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281108
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
708 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND POSSIBLY
RHODE ISLAND TODAY. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...

ISSUED A SHORT FUSED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MA INCLUDING
THE I-91 CORRIDOR AS DENSE FOG HAS FORMED EARLY THIS MORNING.
GIVEN THE LACK OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND STRONG JULY SUN ANGLE DENSE
FOG SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND BEGIN TO ERODE/BURN OFF AROUND 9 AM.
THUS DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM.

MORE STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS EASTERN CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. DENSE
FOG NOT AS WIDESPREAD HERE. THIS AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BURN OFF TOO LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER LESS CONFIDENT ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING MUCH OF
THE DAY ACROSS MVY AND ACK.

TRICKY CONVECTIVE FORECAST TODAY AS STRONG LEAD SHORT WAVE
INTRUDING ACROSS VT/NH AND INTO NORTHERN MA AT 7 AM. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS CONVECTION
DEPARTS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. BEHIND THIS FEATURE H5 TEMPS COOL TO
ABOUT -12C WITH COLDEST VALUES OVER EASTERN MA. THIS WILL STEEPEN
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SHORT WAVE
THERE IS WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH THE COLUMN DRYING FROM THE
TOP DOWNWARD. IN FACT AFTER 18Z HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO RISE ALONG
WITH H5 TEMPS WARMING. THIS MAY SUPPRESS CONVECTION SOMEWHAT. THE
HI RES GUID SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH VERY LITTLE CONVECTION AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NH SEACOAST SOUTHWARD INTO CAPE
ANN...BOSTON AND THEN COASTAL PLYMOUTH AND CAPE COD. WHAT/S LIKELY
HAPPENING HERE IS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES
IN EASTERN MA IS PROVIDING THE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG
WITH HIGHER DEW PT AIR/SBCAPES YIELDING GREATER INSTABILITY ALONG
THE EASTERN MA COAST.

THIS IS CAPTURED WELL IN PREVIOUS FORECAST SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
WITH THIS UPDATE. HOWEVER LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION. LOOKS LIKE ONE OF THOSE EVENTS THAT
HAS TO BE MONITORED HOUR BY HOUR. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST AND CT
VALLEY THIS MORNING. PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY BE IN LOW LYING AREAS
DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DRIVERS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION WHEN
TRAVELING AS VSBYS MAY QUICKLY CHANGE.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS ON THE CONVECTION ACROSS NH AND BACK INTO
UPSTATE NY. LEAD SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD TRIGGERING
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT ATMOSPHERE OVER SNE HAS A
GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR THE
CONVECTION TO FIZZLE AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS IS ALSO SHOWN
IN THE HI-RES GUIDANCE. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER THIS
MORNING NORTH OF ROUTE 2 AND OVER NE MASS.

TODAY...

*** A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLE A SEVERE STORM TODAY ACROSS EASTERN
  MASSACHUSETTS ***

ANY LINGER CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION...BUT PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP IT AT BAY. FIRST POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...BRINGING THE RISK
FOR A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS NE MASS. GUIDANCE THEN SHOWS A WEAKER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE
WILL TRIGGER OFF MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINE...WITH
A LOWER IMPACT OVER SNE.

A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUBSTANCE WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE. BELIEVE THE MID-LEVEL DRYING WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. ANTICIPATE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE TO BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE BEST AREA
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN MASS...ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHEN
LOCATIONS REACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. BEST LOCATION WITHIN THE
INTERIOR WILL BE ACROSS THE TERRAIN. APPEARS THAT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z WITH THE BEST CHANCE BETWEEN 21-00Z.

THUNDERSTORMS TODAY COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL
THANKS TO A DESCENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER THE REGION.
IN FACT GUIDANCE SHOWS ABOUT 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30-40 KTS. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS ALSO FAVOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS.  PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AND IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THEY MAY TRAIN
RESULTING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

OVERALL...MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AS IT WILL BE A HIT OR
MISS TYPE OF COVERAGE. HOWEVER HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS ACROSS EASTERN
MASS WHERE CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY
WHICH COULD CAUSE...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE A HOT AND
HUMID DAY WILL BE IN STORE WITH A FEW SITES HITTING AT OR NEAR 90F
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS WILL RESULT
IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT A
QUIET NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. WEAK
FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THAT IT WONT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE IS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND WHERE PRECIP
OCCURS TODAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW BRINGING
18-19C 850MB TEMPS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S LEADING
TO HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER
ON WEDNESDAY IF LOCATIONS REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...ESP
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT FORECAST
DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM AND HUMID THU
* SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THU/THU NIGHT
* DRIER/LESS HUMID FRI THRU MON BUT STILL WARM

WED NIGHT/THU/THU NIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT
INTO THU. THUS DRY WEATHER TO START THIS PERIOD HOWEVER THE RISK OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS INCREASES LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS POTENT
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CURRENTLY EXITING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINS TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST.
APPEARS TIMING OF THE FRONT COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WELL AFTER
PEAKING HEATING. THIS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SHEAR KEEPS THE RISK
LOW FOR STRONG CONVECTION LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. HOWEVER GOOD
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THIS TROUGH SUGGEST AT LEAST SHOWERS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. PWATS ABOVE NORMAL AND DEW PTS 65 TO 70 WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH STILL 2 DAYS AWAY WILL NEED TO
MONITOR LATER MODEL TRENDS.

OTHERWISE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. A MODEL BLEND OFFERS HIGHS U80S TO L90S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW/VORTEX SETS UP OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAY THIS TIME
PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND MEAN TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL /HIGHS MU80S/ AND LOWS IN THE 60S ALONG WITH TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY AS DEW PTS AVERAGE IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM JET SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THERE WILL BE THE RISK OF SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES. NOT A WASHOUT BUT THE
RISK OF CONVECTION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...

7 AM UPDATE...

IFR AND MVFR WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE VFR BY
MIDDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE ISLANDS WHERE IFR/MVFR MAY
LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z/09Z
TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===========================================================================

BEFORE 00Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRY WEATHER DOMINATES
OVERNIGHT...A FEW SPOT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NE MASS AROUND
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTH
COAST AND CT VALLEY. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE DROPPING
TERMINALS TO LIFR.

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
PATCHES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN
MA AFTER 18Z WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE HIT AND MISS...THE POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MOST SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT
IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS SE MASS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING AROUND
5K. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE AROUND 14-16Z.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HITTING THE TERMINAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NGT/THU...PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG WED NGT BUT QUICKLY IMPROVING
TO VFR THU MORNING. LOW PROB THAT MVFR/IFR IN STRATUS LINGERS ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST THU. THEN UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICK THIS FOG/STRATUS
BURNS OFF SOUTH COAST.

THU NIGHT...VFR-MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE.

FRI AND SAT...VFR LIKELY. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE HIGHEST
RISK ACROSS OUR WATERS ADJACENT TO EASTERN MA. OTHERWISE FOG AND
STRATUS WILL BE THE ISSUE TONIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NIGHT AND THU...FAIRLY TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS. POSSIBLE PATCHY
FOG IN HUMID AIRMASS.

THU NIGHT...MODEST SSW WIND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE.

FRI AND SAT...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
MAY ENTER THE WATERS SAT. WSW WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281108
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
708 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND POSSIBLY
RHODE ISLAND TODAY. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...

ISSUED A SHORT FUSED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MA INCLUDING
THE I-91 CORRIDOR AS DENSE FOG HAS FORMED EARLY THIS MORNING.
GIVEN THE LACK OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND STRONG JULY SUN ANGLE DENSE
FOG SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND BEGIN TO ERODE/BURN OFF AROUND 9 AM.
THUS DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM.

MORE STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS EASTERN CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. DENSE
FOG NOT AS WIDESPREAD HERE. THIS AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BURN OFF TOO LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER LESS CONFIDENT ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING MUCH OF
THE DAY ACROSS MVY AND ACK.

TRICKY CONVECTIVE FORECAST TODAY AS STRONG LEAD SHORT WAVE
INTRUDING ACROSS VT/NH AND INTO NORTHERN MA AT 7 AM. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS CONVECTION
DEPARTS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. BEHIND THIS FEATURE H5 TEMPS COOL TO
ABOUT -12C WITH COLDEST VALUES OVER EASTERN MA. THIS WILL STEEPEN
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SHORT WAVE
THERE IS WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH THE COLUMN DRYING FROM THE
TOP DOWNWARD. IN FACT AFTER 18Z HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO RISE ALONG
WITH H5 TEMPS WARMING. THIS MAY SUPPRESS CONVECTION SOMEWHAT. THE
HI RES GUID SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH VERY LITTLE CONVECTION AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NH SEACOAST SOUTHWARD INTO CAPE
ANN...BOSTON AND THEN COASTAL PLYMOUTH AND CAPE COD. WHAT/S LIKELY
HAPPENING HERE IS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES
IN EASTERN MA IS PROVIDING THE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG
WITH HIGHER DEW PT AIR/SBCAPES YIELDING GREATER INSTABILITY ALONG
THE EASTERN MA COAST.

THIS IS CAPTURED WELL IN PREVIOUS FORECAST SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
WITH THIS UPDATE. HOWEVER LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION. LOOKS LIKE ONE OF THOSE EVENTS THAT
HAS TO BE MONITORED HOUR BY HOUR. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST AND CT
VALLEY THIS MORNING. PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY BE IN LOW LYING AREAS
DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DRIVERS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION WHEN
TRAVELING AS VSBYS MAY QUICKLY CHANGE.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS ON THE CONVECTION ACROSS NH AND BACK INTO
UPSTATE NY. LEAD SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD TRIGGERING
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT ATMOSPHERE OVER SNE HAS A
GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR THE
CONVECTION TO FIZZLE AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS IS ALSO SHOWN
IN THE HI-RES GUIDANCE. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER THIS
MORNING NORTH OF ROUTE 2 AND OVER NE MASS.

TODAY...

*** A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLE A SEVERE STORM TODAY ACROSS EASTERN
  MASSACHUSETTS ***

ANY LINGER CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION...BUT PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP IT AT BAY. FIRST POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...BRINGING THE RISK
FOR A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS NE MASS. GUIDANCE THEN SHOWS A WEAKER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE
WILL TRIGGER OFF MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINE...WITH
A LOWER IMPACT OVER SNE.

A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUBSTANCE WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE. BELIEVE THE MID-LEVEL DRYING WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. ANTICIPATE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE TO BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE BEST AREA
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN MASS...ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHEN
LOCATIONS REACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. BEST LOCATION WITHIN THE
INTERIOR WILL BE ACROSS THE TERRAIN. APPEARS THAT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z WITH THE BEST CHANCE BETWEEN 21-00Z.

THUNDERSTORMS TODAY COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL
THANKS TO A DESCENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER THE REGION.
IN FACT GUIDANCE SHOWS ABOUT 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30-40 KTS. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS ALSO FAVOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS.  PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AND IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THEY MAY TRAIN
RESULTING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

OVERALL...MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AS IT WILL BE A HIT OR
MISS TYPE OF COVERAGE. HOWEVER HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS ACROSS EASTERN
MASS WHERE CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY
WHICH COULD CAUSE...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE A HOT AND
HUMID DAY WILL BE IN STORE WITH A FEW SITES HITTING AT OR NEAR 90F
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS WILL RESULT
IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT A
QUIET NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. WEAK
FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THAT IT WONT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE IS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND WHERE PRECIP
OCCURS TODAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW BRINGING
18-19C 850MB TEMPS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S LEADING
TO HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER
ON WEDNESDAY IF LOCATIONS REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...ESP
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT FORECAST
DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM AND HUMID THU
* SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THU/THU NIGHT
* DRIER/LESS HUMID FRI THRU MON BUT STILL WARM

WED NIGHT/THU/THU NIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT
INTO THU. THUS DRY WEATHER TO START THIS PERIOD HOWEVER THE RISK OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS INCREASES LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS POTENT
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CURRENTLY EXITING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINS TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST.
APPEARS TIMING OF THE FRONT COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WELL AFTER
PEAKING HEATING. THIS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SHEAR KEEPS THE RISK
LOW FOR STRONG CONVECTION LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. HOWEVER GOOD
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THIS TROUGH SUGGEST AT LEAST SHOWERS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. PWATS ABOVE NORMAL AND DEW PTS 65 TO 70 WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH STILL 2 DAYS AWAY WILL NEED TO
MONITOR LATER MODEL TRENDS.

OTHERWISE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. A MODEL BLEND OFFERS HIGHS U80S TO L90S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW/VORTEX SETS UP OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAY THIS TIME
PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND MEAN TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL /HIGHS MU80S/ AND LOWS IN THE 60S ALONG WITH TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY AS DEW PTS AVERAGE IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM JET SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THERE WILL BE THE RISK OF SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES. NOT A WASHOUT BUT THE
RISK OF CONVECTION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...

7 AM UPDATE...

IFR AND MVFR WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE VFR BY
MIDDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE ISLANDS WHERE IFR/MVFR MAY
LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z/09Z
TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===========================================================================

BEFORE 00Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRY WEATHER DOMINATES
OVERNIGHT...A FEW SPOT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NE MASS AROUND
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTH
COAST AND CT VALLEY. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE DROPPING
TERMINALS TO LIFR.

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
PATCHES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN
MA AFTER 18Z WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE HIT AND MISS...THE POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MOST SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT
IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS SE MASS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING AROUND
5K. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE AROUND 14-16Z.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HITTING THE TERMINAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NGT/THU...PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG WED NGT BUT QUICKLY IMPROVING
TO VFR THU MORNING. LOW PROB THAT MVFR/IFR IN STRATUS LINGERS ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST THU. THEN UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICK THIS FOG/STRATUS
BURNS OFF SOUTH COAST.

THU NIGHT...VFR-MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE.

FRI AND SAT...VFR LIKELY. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE HIGHEST
RISK ACROSS OUR WATERS ADJACENT TO EASTERN MA. OTHERWISE FOG AND
STRATUS WILL BE THE ISSUE TONIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NIGHT AND THU...FAIRLY TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS. POSSIBLE PATCHY
FOG IN HUMID AIRMASS.

THU NIGHT...MODEST SSW WIND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE.

FRI AND SAT...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
MAY ENTER THE WATERS SAT. WSW WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KGYX 280954
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
554 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC
FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
6AM UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS MADE IT TO THE COASTLINE A LITTLE
BIT EARLIER THAN FORECAST. HAVE UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
REFLECT THIS. STILL A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN EYES TURN
TOWARD AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
QUEBEC. GIVEN A MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER/DRIER AIR
ALOFT... ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS BEING TAPPED. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS.

BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WHICH
WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. INCREASINGLY WARM
AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 2000 OR MORE CAPE. THIS
IS QUITE STRONG BY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. IN PART THIS
LARGE CAPE VALUE IS A RESULT OF THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH
WHICH CAUSES DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS IN AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
THE RESULT IS A CAPPING INVERSION WHICH HELPS SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY... AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO BAKE IN THE HEAT LONGER BEFORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ABLE TO STALL HEATING. THIS HIGH AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY COULD WELL GO UNTAPPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ABSENCE
OF A TRIGGER MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION AND INITIATE LIFTING.

IN THE SEARCH FOR A TRIGGER WE FIND A SURFACE FRONT / WIND SHIFT
LINE WHICH WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD REACH THE FOOTHILLS REGION OF MAINE PERHAPS
NEAR AUGUSTA BEFORE IT COLLIDES WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY THESE TWO BOUNDARIES... AND
THEIR POSSIBLE COLLISION... COULD SERVE AS THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM NEEDED TO GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SOURCE OF LIFT WOULD BE HEATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHICH LEADS TO MORE FOCUSED RISING MOTION OVER THE PEAKS.
OF THESE TWO SOURCES... THE COLLIDING BOUNDARIES SEEM TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY TO HELP OVERCOME THE CAP AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN
THIS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE A BIT LOWER DUE TO THE OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER... STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. OVERALL WIND SHEAR MIGHT BE JUST
UNDER WHAT IS NEEDED FOR CLASSIC SUPERCELLS... HOWEVER IT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR SUPERCELLS WITHIN LOCALLY
ENHANCED REGIONS OF SHEAR. THE TOTAL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ALSO
SUGGESTS HAIL TO BE A POSSIBILITY... AND THE WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS
WHICH WILL BE NEEDED TO OVERCOME THE CAP SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO BE A THREAT IN THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK
EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL AREAS OF BACK BUILDING ALONG THE COLLIDING
BOUNDARIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING INTO THE MID 90S OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER... ELEVATED INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS SO ANY STORMS WHICH ALREADY EXIST COULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
MARINE FOG COULD MAKE A RETURN TO THE MAINE COASTLINE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAD MOVED SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY GET
STALLED BY THE COLLISION WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND
EXTENDING TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE COULD
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER OVERALL STORM CHANCES ARE LOW. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY SO IF STORMS DO
FORM THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. BUT THE
CONFIDENCE IN STORM FORMATION IS FAIRLY LOW AS WARM AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE IN ALOFT... MAKING IT A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO BREAK THE
CAP. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR. JUST ABOUT
EVERYONE WILL EXCEED 80 DEGREES... EVEN TYPICALLY COOL ROCKLAND.
PORTLAND MAY FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES BEFORE A SEA BREEZE CUTS
HEATING SHORT. INLAND AREAS AND MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD BE IN
THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S...
BUT FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100 DEGREES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THEIR WAY OUT THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BEFORE PRECIPITATION COOLS THINGS DOWN. STORMS WILL
BENEFIT FROM WARM MUGGY AIR BUT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGER IN
CANADA AND ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 15 KTS HERE. WE COULD STILL SEE
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS ESPECIALLY.

FRIDAY WILL BE JUST A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT KEEPS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND SHOWERS OVER THE CARRABASSETT VALLEY AND TO THE NE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY WITH ITS PARENT SURFACE LOW
WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS OF NH AND MAINE.

ANOTHER SEEMINGLY UNANCHORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE PRECIPITATION EVENTS TEND TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS AND ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
STATIONARY OR SLOW MOVING BOUNDARIES (SEA BREEZES... OUTFLOWS...
ETC) THAT WILL BE HARD TO DEFINE AHEAD OF TIME. THUS IT WILL BE
HARD TO PINPOINT WHO WILL GET RAIN AND WHO WONT ON ANY GIVEN
DAY... SUCH IS THE NATURE OF SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA WIDE TODAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND POSSIBLY INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. COULD SEE
THE RETURN OF MARINE FOG AND CLOUDS TONIGHT TO THE MAINE COAST AND
VALLEY FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY MORNING MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. ON
SATURDAY... SCATTERED MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR KHIE AND KLEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA BUT MAY BRUSH
NEAR 5 FT IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEK EVEN THOUGH SPEEDS
SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW 12 KTS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM... KIMBLE
SHORT TERM... KIMBLE
LONG TERM... HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280954
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
554 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC
FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
6AM UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS MADE IT TO THE COASTLINE A LITTLE
BIT EARLIER THAN FORECAST. HAVE UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
REFLECT THIS. STILL A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN EYES TURN
TOWARD AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
QUEBEC. GIVEN A MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER/DRIER AIR
ALOFT... ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS BEING TAPPED. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS.

BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WHICH
WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. INCREASINGLY WARM
AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 2000 OR MORE CAPE. THIS
IS QUITE STRONG BY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. IN PART THIS
LARGE CAPE VALUE IS A RESULT OF THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH
WHICH CAUSES DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS IN AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
THE RESULT IS A CAPPING INVERSION WHICH HELPS SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY... AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO BAKE IN THE HEAT LONGER BEFORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ABLE TO STALL HEATING. THIS HIGH AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY COULD WELL GO UNTAPPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ABSENCE
OF A TRIGGER MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION AND INITIATE LIFTING.

IN THE SEARCH FOR A TRIGGER WE FIND A SURFACE FRONT / WIND SHIFT
LINE WHICH WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD REACH THE FOOTHILLS REGION OF MAINE PERHAPS
NEAR AUGUSTA BEFORE IT COLLIDES WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY THESE TWO BOUNDARIES... AND
THEIR POSSIBLE COLLISION... COULD SERVE AS THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM NEEDED TO GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SOURCE OF LIFT WOULD BE HEATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHICH LEADS TO MORE FOCUSED RISING MOTION OVER THE PEAKS.
OF THESE TWO SOURCES... THE COLLIDING BOUNDARIES SEEM TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY TO HELP OVERCOME THE CAP AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN
THIS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE A BIT LOWER DUE TO THE OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER... STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. OVERALL WIND SHEAR MIGHT BE JUST
UNDER WHAT IS NEEDED FOR CLASSIC SUPERCELLS... HOWEVER IT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR SUPERCELLS WITHIN LOCALLY
ENHANCED REGIONS OF SHEAR. THE TOTAL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ALSO
SUGGESTS HAIL TO BE A POSSIBILITY... AND THE WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS
WHICH WILL BE NEEDED TO OVERCOME THE CAP SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO BE A THREAT IN THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK
EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL AREAS OF BACK BUILDING ALONG THE COLLIDING
BOUNDARIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING INTO THE MID 90S OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER... ELEVATED INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS SO ANY STORMS WHICH ALREADY EXIST COULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
MARINE FOG COULD MAKE A RETURN TO THE MAINE COASTLINE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAD MOVED SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY GET
STALLED BY THE COLLISION WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND
EXTENDING TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE COULD
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER OVERALL STORM CHANCES ARE LOW. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY SO IF STORMS DO
FORM THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. BUT THE
CONFIDENCE IN STORM FORMATION IS FAIRLY LOW AS WARM AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE IN ALOFT... MAKING IT A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO BREAK THE
CAP. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR. JUST ABOUT
EVERYONE WILL EXCEED 80 DEGREES... EVEN TYPICALLY COOL ROCKLAND.
PORTLAND MAY FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES BEFORE A SEA BREEZE CUTS
HEATING SHORT. INLAND AREAS AND MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD BE IN
THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S...
BUT FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100 DEGREES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THEIR WAY OUT THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BEFORE PRECIPITATION COOLS THINGS DOWN. STORMS WILL
BENEFIT FROM WARM MUGGY AIR BUT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGER IN
CANADA AND ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 15 KTS HERE. WE COULD STILL SEE
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS ESPECIALLY.

FRIDAY WILL BE JUST A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT KEEPS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND SHOWERS OVER THE CARRABASSETT VALLEY AND TO THE NE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY WITH ITS PARENT SURFACE LOW
WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS OF NH AND MAINE.

ANOTHER SEEMINGLY UNANCHORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE PRECIPITATION EVENTS TEND TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS AND ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
STATIONARY OR SLOW MOVING BOUNDARIES (SEA BREEZES... OUTFLOWS...
ETC) THAT WILL BE HARD TO DEFINE AHEAD OF TIME. THUS IT WILL BE
HARD TO PINPOINT WHO WILL GET RAIN AND WHO WONT ON ANY GIVEN
DAY... SUCH IS THE NATURE OF SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA WIDE TODAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND POSSIBLY INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. COULD SEE
THE RETURN OF MARINE FOG AND CLOUDS TONIGHT TO THE MAINE COAST AND
VALLEY FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY MORNING MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. ON
SATURDAY... SCATTERED MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR KHIE AND KLEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA BUT MAY BRUSH
NEAR 5 FT IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEK EVEN THOUGH SPEEDS
SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW 12 KTS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM... KIMBLE
SHORT TERM... KIMBLE
LONG TERM... HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 280833
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
433 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC
FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
QUEBEC. GIVEN A MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER/DRIER AIR
ALOFT... ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS BEING TAPPED. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS.

BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WHICH
WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. INCREASINGLY WARM
AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 2000 OR MORE CAPE. THIS
IS QUITE STRONG BY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. IN PART THIS
LARGE CAPE VALUE IS A RESULT OF THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH
WHICH CAUSES DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS IN AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
THE RESULT IS A CAPPING INVERSION WHICH HELPS SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY... AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO BAKE IN THE HEAT LONGER BEFORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ABLE TO STALL HEATING. THIS HIGH AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY COULD WELL GO UNTAPPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ABSENCE
OF A TRIGGER MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION AND INITIATE LIFTING.

IN THE SEARCH FOR A TRIGGER WE FIND A SURFACE FRONT / WIND SHIFT
LINE WHICH WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD REACH THE FOOTHILLS REGION OF MAINE PERHAPS
NEAR AUGUSTA BEFORE IT COLLIDES WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY THESE TWO BOUNDARIES... AND
THEIR POSSIBLE COLLISION... COULD SERVE AS THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM NEEDED TO GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SOURCE OF LIFT WOULD BE HEATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHICH LEADS TO MORE FOCUSED RISING MOTION OVER THE PEAKS.
OF THESE TWO SOURCES... THE COLLIDING BOUNDARIES SEEM TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY TO HELP OVERCOME THE CAP AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN
THIS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE A BIT LOWER DUE TO THE OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER... STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. OVERALL WIND SHEAR MIGHT BE JUST
UNDER WHAT IS NEEDED FOR CLASSIC SUPERCELLS... HOWEVER IT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR SUPERCELLS WITHIN LOCALLY
ENHANCED REGIONS OF SHEAR. THE TOTAL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ALSO
SUGGESTS HAIL TO BE A POSSIBILITY... AND THE WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS
WHICH WILL BE NEEDED TO OVERCOME THE CAP SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO BE A THREAT IN THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK
EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL AREAS OF BACK BUILDING ALONG THE COLLIDING
BOUNDARIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING INTO THE MID 90S OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER... ELEVATED INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS SO ANY STORMS WHICH ALREADY EXIST COULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
MARINE FOG COULD MAKE A RETURN TO THE MAINE COASTLINE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAD MOVED SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY GET
STALLED BY THE COLLISION WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND
EXTENDING TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE COULD
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER OVERALL STORM CHANCES ARE LOW. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY SO IF STORMS DO
FORM THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. BUT THE
CONFIDENCE IN STORM FORMATION IS FAIRLY LOW AS WARM AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE IN ALOFT... MAKING IT A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO BREAK THE
CAP. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR. JUST ABOUT
EVERYONE WILL EXCEED 80 DEGREES... EVEN TYPICALLY COOL ROCKLAND.
PORTLAND MAY FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES BEFORE A SEA BREEZE CUTS
HEATING SHORT. INLAND AREAS AND MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD BE IN
THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S...
BUT FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100 DEGREES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THEIR WAY OUT THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BEFORE PRECIPITATION COOLS THINGS DOWN. STORMS WILL
BENEFIT FROM WARM MUGGY AIR BUT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGER IN
CANADA AND ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 15 KTS HERE. WE COULD STILL SEE
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS ESPECIALLY.

FRIDAY WILL BE JUST A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT KEEPS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND SHOWERS OVER THE CARRABASSETT VALLEY AND TO THE NE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY WITH ITS PARENT SURFACE LOW
WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS OF NH AND MAINE.

ANOTHER SEEMINGLY UNANCHORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE PRECIPITATION EVENTS TEND TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS AND ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
STATIONARY OR SLOW MOVING BOUNDARIES (SEA BREEZES... OUTFLOWS...
ETC) THAT WILL BE HARD TO DEFINE AHEAD OF TIME. THUS IT WILL BE
HARD TO PINPOINT WHO WILL GET RAIN AND WHO WONT ON ANY GIVEN
DAY... SUCH IS THE NATURE OF SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA WIDE TODAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND POSSIBLY INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. COULD SEE
THE RETURN OF MARINE FOG AND CLOUDS TONIGHT TO THE MAINE COAST AND
VALLEY FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY MORNING MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. ON
SATURDAY... SCATTERED MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR KHIE AND KLEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA BUT MAY BRUSH
NEAR 5 FT IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEK EVEN THOUGH SPEEDS
SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW 12 KTS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

HANES/KIMBLE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 280833
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
433 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC
FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
QUEBEC. GIVEN A MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER/DRIER AIR
ALOFT... ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS BEING TAPPED. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS.

BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WHICH
WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. INCREASINGLY WARM
AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 2000 OR MORE CAPE. THIS
IS QUITE STRONG BY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. IN PART THIS
LARGE CAPE VALUE IS A RESULT OF THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH
WHICH CAUSES DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS IN AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
THE RESULT IS A CAPPING INVERSION WHICH HELPS SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY... AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO BAKE IN THE HEAT LONGER BEFORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ABLE TO STALL HEATING. THIS HIGH AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY COULD WELL GO UNTAPPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ABSENCE
OF A TRIGGER MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION AND INITIATE LIFTING.

IN THE SEARCH FOR A TRIGGER WE FIND A SURFACE FRONT / WIND SHIFT
LINE WHICH WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD REACH THE FOOTHILLS REGION OF MAINE PERHAPS
NEAR AUGUSTA BEFORE IT COLLIDES WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY THESE TWO BOUNDARIES... AND
THEIR POSSIBLE COLLISION... COULD SERVE AS THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM NEEDED TO GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SOURCE OF LIFT WOULD BE HEATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHICH LEADS TO MORE FOCUSED RISING MOTION OVER THE PEAKS.
OF THESE TWO SOURCES... THE COLLIDING BOUNDARIES SEEM TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY TO HELP OVERCOME THE CAP AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN
THIS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE A BIT LOWER DUE TO THE OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER... STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. OVERALL WIND SHEAR MIGHT BE JUST
UNDER WHAT IS NEEDED FOR CLASSIC SUPERCELLS... HOWEVER IT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR SUPERCELLS WITHIN LOCALLY
ENHANCED REGIONS OF SHEAR. THE TOTAL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ALSO
SUGGESTS HAIL TO BE A POSSIBILITY... AND THE WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS
WHICH WILL BE NEEDED TO OVERCOME THE CAP SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO BE A THREAT IN THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK
EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL AREAS OF BACK BUILDING ALONG THE COLLIDING
BOUNDARIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING INTO THE MID 90S OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER... ELEVATED INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS SO ANY STORMS WHICH ALREADY EXIST COULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
MARINE FOG COULD MAKE A RETURN TO THE MAINE COASTLINE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAD MOVED SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY GET
STALLED BY THE COLLISION WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND
EXTENDING TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE COULD
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER OVERALL STORM CHANCES ARE LOW. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY SO IF STORMS DO
FORM THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. BUT THE
CONFIDENCE IN STORM FORMATION IS FAIRLY LOW AS WARM AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE IN ALOFT... MAKING IT A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO BREAK THE
CAP. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR. JUST ABOUT
EVERYONE WILL EXCEED 80 DEGREES... EVEN TYPICALLY COOL ROCKLAND.
PORTLAND MAY FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES BEFORE A SEA BREEZE CUTS
HEATING SHORT. INLAND AREAS AND MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD BE IN
THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S...
BUT FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100 DEGREES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THEIR WAY OUT THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BEFORE PRECIPITATION COOLS THINGS DOWN. STORMS WILL
BENEFIT FROM WARM MUGGY AIR BUT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGER IN
CANADA AND ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 15 KTS HERE. WE COULD STILL SEE
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS ESPECIALLY.

FRIDAY WILL BE JUST A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT KEEPS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND SHOWERS OVER THE CARRABASSETT VALLEY AND TO THE NE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY WITH ITS PARENT SURFACE LOW
WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS OF NH AND MAINE.

ANOTHER SEEMINGLY UNANCHORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE PRECIPITATION EVENTS TEND TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS AND ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
STATIONARY OR SLOW MOVING BOUNDARIES (SEA BREEZES... OUTFLOWS...
ETC) THAT WILL BE HARD TO DEFINE AHEAD OF TIME. THUS IT WILL BE
HARD TO PINPOINT WHO WILL GET RAIN AND WHO WONT ON ANY GIVEN
DAY... SUCH IS THE NATURE OF SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA WIDE TODAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND POSSIBLY INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. COULD SEE
THE RETURN OF MARINE FOG AND CLOUDS TONIGHT TO THE MAINE COAST AND
VALLEY FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY MORNING MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. ON
SATURDAY... SCATTERED MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR KHIE AND KLEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA BUT MAY BRUSH
NEAR 5 FT IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEK EVEN THOUGH SPEEDS
SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW 12 KTS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

HANES/KIMBLE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 280833
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
433 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC
FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
QUEBEC. GIVEN A MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER/DRIER AIR
ALOFT... ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS BEING TAPPED. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS.

BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WHICH
WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. INCREASINGLY WARM
AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 2000 OR MORE CAPE. THIS
IS QUITE STRONG BY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. IN PART THIS
LARGE CAPE VALUE IS A RESULT OF THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH
WHICH CAUSES DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS IN AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
THE RESULT IS A CAPPING INVERSION WHICH HELPS SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY... AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO BAKE IN THE HEAT LONGER BEFORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ABLE TO STALL HEATING. THIS HIGH AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY COULD WELL GO UNTAPPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ABSENCE
OF A TRIGGER MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION AND INITIATE LIFTING.

IN THE SEARCH FOR A TRIGGER WE FIND A SURFACE FRONT / WIND SHIFT
LINE WHICH WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD REACH THE FOOTHILLS REGION OF MAINE PERHAPS
NEAR AUGUSTA BEFORE IT COLLIDES WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY THESE TWO BOUNDARIES... AND
THEIR POSSIBLE COLLISION... COULD SERVE AS THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM NEEDED TO GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SOURCE OF LIFT WOULD BE HEATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHICH LEADS TO MORE FOCUSED RISING MOTION OVER THE PEAKS.
OF THESE TWO SOURCES... THE COLLIDING BOUNDARIES SEEM TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY TO HELP OVERCOME THE CAP AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN
THIS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE A BIT LOWER DUE TO THE OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER... STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. OVERALL WIND SHEAR MIGHT BE JUST
UNDER WHAT IS NEEDED FOR CLASSIC SUPERCELLS... HOWEVER IT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR SUPERCELLS WITHIN LOCALLY
ENHANCED REGIONS OF SHEAR. THE TOTAL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ALSO
SUGGESTS HAIL TO BE A POSSIBILITY... AND THE WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS
WHICH WILL BE NEEDED TO OVERCOME THE CAP SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO BE A THREAT IN THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK
EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL AREAS OF BACK BUILDING ALONG THE COLLIDING
BOUNDARIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING INTO THE MID 90S OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER... ELEVATED INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS SO ANY STORMS WHICH ALREADY EXIST COULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
MARINE FOG COULD MAKE A RETURN TO THE MAINE COASTLINE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAD MOVED SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY GET
STALLED BY THE COLLISION WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND
EXTENDING TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE COULD
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER OVERALL STORM CHANCES ARE LOW. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY SO IF STORMS DO
FORM THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. BUT THE
CONFIDENCE IN STORM FORMATION IS FAIRLY LOW AS WARM AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE IN ALOFT... MAKING IT A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO BREAK THE
CAP. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR. JUST ABOUT
EVERYONE WILL EXCEED 80 DEGREES... EVEN TYPICALLY COOL ROCKLAND.
PORTLAND MAY FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES BEFORE A SEA BREEZE CUTS
HEATING SHORT. INLAND AREAS AND MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD BE IN
THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S...
BUT FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100 DEGREES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THEIR WAY OUT THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BEFORE PRECIPITATION COOLS THINGS DOWN. STORMS WILL
BENEFIT FROM WARM MUGGY AIR BUT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGER IN
CANADA AND ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 15 KTS HERE. WE COULD STILL SEE
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS ESPECIALLY.

FRIDAY WILL BE JUST A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT KEEPS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND SHOWERS OVER THE CARRABASSETT VALLEY AND TO THE NE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY WITH ITS PARENT SURFACE LOW
WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS OF NH AND MAINE.

ANOTHER SEEMINGLY UNANCHORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE PRECIPITATION EVENTS TEND TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS AND ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
STATIONARY OR SLOW MOVING BOUNDARIES (SEA BREEZES... OUTFLOWS...
ETC) THAT WILL BE HARD TO DEFINE AHEAD OF TIME. THUS IT WILL BE
HARD TO PINPOINT WHO WILL GET RAIN AND WHO WONT ON ANY GIVEN
DAY... SUCH IS THE NATURE OF SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA WIDE TODAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND POSSIBLY INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. COULD SEE
THE RETURN OF MARINE FOG AND CLOUDS TONIGHT TO THE MAINE COAST AND
VALLEY FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY MORNING MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. ON
SATURDAY... SCATTERED MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR KHIE AND KLEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA BUT MAY BRUSH
NEAR 5 FT IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEK EVEN THOUGH SPEEDS
SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW 12 KTS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

HANES/KIMBLE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 280833
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
433 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC
FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
QUEBEC. GIVEN A MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER/DRIER AIR
ALOFT... ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS BEING TAPPED. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS.

BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WHICH
WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. INCREASINGLY WARM
AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 2000 OR MORE CAPE. THIS
IS QUITE STRONG BY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. IN PART THIS
LARGE CAPE VALUE IS A RESULT OF THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH
WHICH CAUSES DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS IN AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
THE RESULT IS A CAPPING INVERSION WHICH HELPS SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY... AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO BAKE IN THE HEAT LONGER BEFORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ABLE TO STALL HEATING. THIS HIGH AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY COULD WELL GO UNTAPPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ABSENCE
OF A TRIGGER MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION AND INITIATE LIFTING.

IN THE SEARCH FOR A TRIGGER WE FIND A SURFACE FRONT / WIND SHIFT
LINE WHICH WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD REACH THE FOOTHILLS REGION OF MAINE PERHAPS
NEAR AUGUSTA BEFORE IT COLLIDES WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY THESE TWO BOUNDARIES... AND
THEIR POSSIBLE COLLISION... COULD SERVE AS THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM NEEDED TO GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SOURCE OF LIFT WOULD BE HEATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHICH LEADS TO MORE FOCUSED RISING MOTION OVER THE PEAKS.
OF THESE TWO SOURCES... THE COLLIDING BOUNDARIES SEEM TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY TO HELP OVERCOME THE CAP AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN
THIS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE A BIT LOWER DUE TO THE OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER... STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. OVERALL WIND SHEAR MIGHT BE JUST
UNDER WHAT IS NEEDED FOR CLASSIC SUPERCELLS... HOWEVER IT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR SUPERCELLS WITHIN LOCALLY
ENHANCED REGIONS OF SHEAR. THE TOTAL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ALSO
SUGGESTS HAIL TO BE A POSSIBILITY... AND THE WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS
WHICH WILL BE NEEDED TO OVERCOME THE CAP SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO BE A THREAT IN THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK
EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL AREAS OF BACK BUILDING ALONG THE COLLIDING
BOUNDARIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING INTO THE MID 90S OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER... ELEVATED INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS SO ANY STORMS WHICH ALREADY EXIST COULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
MARINE FOG COULD MAKE A RETURN TO THE MAINE COASTLINE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAD MOVED SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY GET
STALLED BY THE COLLISION WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND
EXTENDING TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE COULD
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER OVERALL STORM CHANCES ARE LOW. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY SO IF STORMS DO
FORM THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. BUT THE
CONFIDENCE IN STORM FORMATION IS FAIRLY LOW AS WARM AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE IN ALOFT... MAKING IT A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO BREAK THE
CAP. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR. JUST ABOUT
EVERYONE WILL EXCEED 80 DEGREES... EVEN TYPICALLY COOL ROCKLAND.
PORTLAND MAY FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES BEFORE A SEA BREEZE CUTS
HEATING SHORT. INLAND AREAS AND MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD BE IN
THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S...
BUT FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100 DEGREES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THEIR WAY OUT THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BEFORE PRECIPITATION COOLS THINGS DOWN. STORMS WILL
BENEFIT FROM WARM MUGGY AIR BUT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGER IN
CANADA AND ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 15 KTS HERE. WE COULD STILL SEE
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS ESPECIALLY.

FRIDAY WILL BE JUST A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT KEEPS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND SHOWERS OVER THE CARRABASSETT VALLEY AND TO THE NE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY WITH ITS PARENT SURFACE LOW
WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS OF NH AND MAINE.

ANOTHER SEEMINGLY UNANCHORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE PRECIPITATION EVENTS TEND TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS AND ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
STATIONARY OR SLOW MOVING BOUNDARIES (SEA BREEZES... OUTFLOWS...
ETC) THAT WILL BE HARD TO DEFINE AHEAD OF TIME. THUS IT WILL BE
HARD TO PINPOINT WHO WILL GET RAIN AND WHO WONT ON ANY GIVEN
DAY... SUCH IS THE NATURE OF SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA WIDE TODAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND POSSIBLY INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. COULD SEE
THE RETURN OF MARINE FOG AND CLOUDS TONIGHT TO THE MAINE COAST AND
VALLEY FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY MORNING MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. ON
SATURDAY... SCATTERED MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR KHIE AND KLEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA BUT MAY BRUSH
NEAR 5 FT IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEK EVEN THOUGH SPEEDS
SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW 12 KTS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

HANES/KIMBLE



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280810
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
410 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND POSSIBLY
RHODE ISLAND TODAY. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST AND CT VALLEY
THIS MORNING. PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY BE IN LOW LYING AREAS DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE...DRIVERS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING AS
VSBYS MAY QUICKLY CHANGE.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS ON THE CONVECTION ACROSS NH AND BACK INTO
UPSTATE NY. LEAD SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD TRIGGERING
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT ATMOSPHERE OVER SNE HAS A
GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR THE
CONVECTION TO FIZZLE AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS IS ALSO SHOWN
IN THE HI-RES GUIDANCE. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER THIS
MORNING NORTH OF ROUTE 2 AND OVER NE MASS.

TODAY...

*** A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLE A SEVERE STORM TODAY ACROSS EASTERN
  MASSACHUSETTS ***

ANY LINGER CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION...BUT PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP IT AT BAY. FIRST POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...BRINGING THE RISK
FOR A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS NE MASS. GUIDANCE THEN SHOWS A WEAKER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE
WILL TRIGGER OFF MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINE...WITH
A LOWER IMPACT OVER SNE.

A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUBSTANCE WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE. BELIEVE THE MID-LEVEL DRYING WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. ANTICIPATE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE TO BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE BEST AREA
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN MASS...ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHEN
LOCATIONS REACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. BEST LOCATION WITHIN THE
INTERIOR WILL BE ACROSS THE TERRAIN. APPEARS THAT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z WITH THE BEST CHANCE BETWEEN 21-00Z.

THUNDERSTORMS TODAY COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL
THANKS TO A DESCENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER THE REGION.
IN FACT GUIDANCE SHOWS ABOUT 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30-40 KTS. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS ALSO FAVOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS.  PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AND IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THEY MAY TRAIN
RESULTING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

OVERALL...MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AS IT WILL BE A HIT OR
MISS TYPE OF COVERAGE. HOWEVER HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS ACROSS EASTERN
MASS WHERE CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY
WHICH COULD CAUSE...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE A HOT AND
HUMID DAY WILL BE IN STORE WITH A FEW SITES HITTING AT OR NEAR 90F
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS WILL RESULT
IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT A
QUIET NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. WEAK
FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THAT IT WONT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE IS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND WHERE PRECIP
OCCURS TODAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW BRINGING
18-19C 850MB TEMPS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S LEADING
TO HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER
ON WEDNESDAY IF LOCATIONS REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...ESP
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT FORECAST
DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM AND HUMID THU
* SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THU/THU NIGHT
* DRIER/LESS HUMID FRI THRU MON BUT STILL WARM

WED NIGHT/THU/THU NIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT
INTO THU. THUS DRY WEATHER TO START THIS PERIOD HOWEVER THE RISK OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS INCREASES LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS POTENT
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CURRENTLY EXITING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINS TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST.
APPEARS TIMING OF THE FRONT COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WELL AFTER
PEAKING HEATING. THIS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SHEAR KEEPS THE RISK
LOW FOR STRONG CONVECTION LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. HOWEVER GOOD
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THIS TROUGH SUGGEST AT LEAST SHOWERS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. PWATS ABOVE NORMAL AND DEW PTS 65 TO 70 WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH STILL 2 DAYS AWAY WILL NEED TO
MONITOR LATER MODEL TRENDS.

OTHERWISE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. A MODEL BLEND OFFERS HIGHS U80S TO L90S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW/VORTEX SETS UP OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAY THIS TIME
PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND MEAN TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL /HIGHS MU80S/ AND LOWS IN THE 60S ALONG WITH TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY AS DEW PTS AVERAGE IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM JET SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THERE WILL BE THE RISK OF SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES. NOT A WASHOUT BUT THE
RISK OF CONVECTION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...

BEFORE 00Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRY WEATHER DOMINATES
OVERNIGHT...A FEW SPOT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NE MASS AROUND
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTH
COAST AND CT VALLEY. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE DROPPING
TERMINALS TO LIFR.

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
PATCHES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN
MA AFTER 18Z WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE HIT AND MISS...THE POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MOST SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT
IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS SE MASS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING AROUND
5K. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE AROUND 14-16Z.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HITTING THE TERMINAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NGT/THU...PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG WED NGT BUT QUICKLY IMPROVING
TO VFR THU MORNING. LOW PROB THAT MVFR/IFR IN STRATUS LINGERS ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST THU. THEN UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICK THIS FOG/STRATUS
BURNS OFF SOUTH COAST.

THU NIGHT...VFR-MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE.

FRI AND SAT...VFR LIKELY. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE HIGHEST
RISK ACROSS OUR WATERS ADJACENT TO EASTERN MA. OTHERWISE FOG AND
STRATUS WILL BE THE ISSUE TONIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NIGHT AND THU...FAIRLY TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS. POSSIBLE PATCHY
FOG IN HUMID AIRMASS.

THU NIGHT...MODEST SSW WIND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE.

FRI AND SAT...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
MAY ENTER THE WATERS SAT. WSW WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280810
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
410 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND POSSIBLY
RHODE ISLAND TODAY. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST AND CT VALLEY
THIS MORNING. PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY BE IN LOW LYING AREAS DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE...DRIVERS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING AS
VSBYS MAY QUICKLY CHANGE.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS ON THE CONVECTION ACROSS NH AND BACK INTO
UPSTATE NY. LEAD SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD TRIGGERING
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT ATMOSPHERE OVER SNE HAS A
GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR THE
CONVECTION TO FIZZLE AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS IS ALSO SHOWN
IN THE HI-RES GUIDANCE. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER THIS
MORNING NORTH OF ROUTE 2 AND OVER NE MASS.

TODAY...

*** A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLE A SEVERE STORM TODAY ACROSS EASTERN
  MASSACHUSETTS ***

ANY LINGER CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION...BUT PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP IT AT BAY. FIRST POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...BRINGING THE RISK
FOR A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS NE MASS. GUIDANCE THEN SHOWS A WEAKER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE
WILL TRIGGER OFF MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINE...WITH
A LOWER IMPACT OVER SNE.

A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUBSTANCE WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE. BELIEVE THE MID-LEVEL DRYING WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. ANTICIPATE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE TO BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE BEST AREA
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN MASS...ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHEN
LOCATIONS REACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. BEST LOCATION WITHIN THE
INTERIOR WILL BE ACROSS THE TERRAIN. APPEARS THAT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z WITH THE BEST CHANCE BETWEEN 21-00Z.

THUNDERSTORMS TODAY COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL
THANKS TO A DESCENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER THE REGION.
IN FACT GUIDANCE SHOWS ABOUT 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30-40 KTS. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS ALSO FAVOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS.  PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AND IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THEY MAY TRAIN
RESULTING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

OVERALL...MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AS IT WILL BE A HIT OR
MISS TYPE OF COVERAGE. HOWEVER HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS ACROSS EASTERN
MASS WHERE CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY
WHICH COULD CAUSE...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE A HOT AND
HUMID DAY WILL BE IN STORE WITH A FEW SITES HITTING AT OR NEAR 90F
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS WILL RESULT
IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT A
QUIET NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. WEAK
FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THAT IT WONT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE IS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND WHERE PRECIP
OCCURS TODAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW BRINGING
18-19C 850MB TEMPS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S LEADING
TO HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER
ON WEDNESDAY IF LOCATIONS REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...ESP
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT FORECAST
DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM AND HUMID THU
* SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THU/THU NIGHT
* DRIER/LESS HUMID FRI THRU MON BUT STILL WARM

WED NIGHT/THU/THU NIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT
INTO THU. THUS DRY WEATHER TO START THIS PERIOD HOWEVER THE RISK OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS INCREASES LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS POTENT
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CURRENTLY EXITING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINS TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST.
APPEARS TIMING OF THE FRONT COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WELL AFTER
PEAKING HEATING. THIS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SHEAR KEEPS THE RISK
LOW FOR STRONG CONVECTION LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. HOWEVER GOOD
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THIS TROUGH SUGGEST AT LEAST SHOWERS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. PWATS ABOVE NORMAL AND DEW PTS 65 TO 70 WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH STILL 2 DAYS AWAY WILL NEED TO
MONITOR LATER MODEL TRENDS.

OTHERWISE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. A MODEL BLEND OFFERS HIGHS U80S TO L90S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW/VORTEX SETS UP OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAY THIS TIME
PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND MEAN TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL /HIGHS MU80S/ AND LOWS IN THE 60S ALONG WITH TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY AS DEW PTS AVERAGE IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM JET SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THERE WILL BE THE RISK OF SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES. NOT A WASHOUT BUT THE
RISK OF CONVECTION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...

BEFORE 00Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRY WEATHER DOMINATES
OVERNIGHT...A FEW SPOT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NE MASS AROUND
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTH
COAST AND CT VALLEY. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE DROPPING
TERMINALS TO LIFR.

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
PATCHES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN
MA AFTER 18Z WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE HIT AND MISS...THE POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MOST SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT
IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS SE MASS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING AROUND
5K. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE AROUND 14-16Z.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HITTING THE TERMINAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NGT/THU...PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG WED NGT BUT QUICKLY IMPROVING
TO VFR THU MORNING. LOW PROB THAT MVFR/IFR IN STRATUS LINGERS ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST THU. THEN UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICK THIS FOG/STRATUS
BURNS OFF SOUTH COAST.

THU NIGHT...VFR-MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE.

FRI AND SAT...VFR LIKELY. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE HIGHEST
RISK ACROSS OUR WATERS ADJACENT TO EASTERN MA. OTHERWISE FOG AND
STRATUS WILL BE THE ISSUE TONIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NIGHT AND THU...FAIRLY TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS. POSSIBLE PATCHY
FOG IN HUMID AIRMASS.

THU NIGHT...MODEST SSW WIND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE.

FRI AND SAT...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
MAY ENTER THE WATERS SAT. WSW WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280751
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
351 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND POSSIBLY
RHODE ISLAND TODAY. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVERNIGHT KEEPING TEMPS NEAR STEADY. IN
FACT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S TO UPPER 60S
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE MOISTURE CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALLOWING FOR A
DESCENT INVERSION OVER THE AREA. SEVERAL PLACES HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED IN VSBYS...ORE...CEF AND BAF. ANTICIPATE VSBYS TO BE
AROUND 1SM DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE SO ENCOURAGE DRIVERS TO USE
CAUTION. OTHERWISE PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS IS STARTING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND SHOULD SPREAD INTO MASS
OVERNIGHT.

ASIDE FROM FOG...THE OTHER FOCUS IS ON THE CONVECTION ACROSS VT.
HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS THESE STORM DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND
LINGERING INSTABILITY CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS
MOVING INTO NE MASS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
  AND EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN
  MA AND RHODE ISLAND***

TUESDAY...

ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO RESULT
IN A VERY WARM TO EVEN BORDERLINE HOT AFTERNOON.  HIGH TEMPS WILL
TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.  IN ADDITION...IT WILL
BE RATHER HUMID OUTSIDE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND RATHER LIGHT
WINDS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WE CAN NOT RULE
OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  THE MAIN CONCERN THEN TURNS TO A
STRONG PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.  GIVEN VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -10C...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE MLCAPE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG.  THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.  WHILE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...GREATEST
CONCERN IS ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE SHORTWAVE...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT CENTRAL MA.

WILL RUN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
SOME ENHANCED WORDING.  AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK WHICH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
NONETHELESS...STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL LIKELY GENERATE 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND THERE IS AN INVERTED V LOOK TO
THE SOUNDINGS.  THIS MEANS THAT THERE IS THE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE
ISLAND...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT CENTRAL MA.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.  HIGHEST RISK MIGHT BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT THAT SETS
UP ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND AS IT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.  ALSO...SOMETIMES WE END UP WITH SOME TRAINING ON THESE
BOUNDARIES AND THE RISK FOR VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM AND HUMID THU
* SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THU/THU NIGHT
* DRIER/LESS HUMID FRI THRU MON BUT STILL WARM

WED NIGHT/THU/THU NIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT
INTO THU. THUS DRY WEATHER TO START THIS PERIOD HOWEVER THE RISK OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS INCREASES LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS POTENT
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CURRENTLY EXITING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINS TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST.
APPEARS TIMING OF THE FRONT COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WELL AFTER
PEAKING HEATING. THIS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SHEAR KEEPS THE RISK
LOW FOR STRONG CONVECTION LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. HOWEVER GOOD
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THIS TROUGH SUGGEST AT LEAST SHOWERS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. PWATS ABOVE NORMAL AND DEW PTS 65 TO 70 WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH STILL 2 DAYS AWAY WILL NEED TO
MONITOR LATER MODEL TRENDS.

OTHERWISE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. A MODEL BLEND OFFERS HIGHS U80S TO L90S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW/VORTEX SETS UP OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAY THIS TIME
PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND MEAN TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL /HIGHS MU80S/ AND LOWS IN THE 60S ALONG WITH TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY AS DEW PTS AVERAGE IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM JET SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THERE WILL BE THE RISK OF SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES. NOT A WASHOUT BUT THE
RISK OF CONVECTION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...

BEFORE 00Z...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRY WEATHER DOMINATES
OVERNIGHT...A FEW SPOT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NE MASS AROUND
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH COAST AND CT VALLEY. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE
DROPPING TERMINALS TO LIFR.

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
PATCHES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN
MA/RHODE ISLAND. WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE HIT AND MISS...THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MOST SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT
IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS SE MASS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING AROUND
5K. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE AROUND 14-16Z.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HITTING THE TERMINAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NGT/THU...PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG WED NGT BUT QUICKLY IMPROVING
TO VFR THU MORNING. LOW PROB THAT MVFR/IFR IN STRATUS LINGERS ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST THU. THEN UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICK THIS FOG/STRATUS
BURNS OFF SOUTH COAST.

THU NIGHT...VFR-MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE.

FRI AND SAT...VFR LIKELY. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A BETTER CHANCE OF
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
RESULT IN BRIEFLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.  SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS OUR WATERS
ADJACENT TO EASTERN MA.


OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NIGHT AND THU...FAIRLY TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS. POSSIBLE PATCHY
FOG IN HUMID AIRMASS.

THU NIGHT...MODEST SSW WIND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE.

FRI AND SAT...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
MAY ENTER THE WATERS SAT. WSW WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280751
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
351 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND POSSIBLY
RHODE ISLAND TODAY. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVERNIGHT KEEPING TEMPS NEAR STEADY. IN
FACT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S TO UPPER 60S
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE MOISTURE CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALLOWING FOR A
DESCENT INVERSION OVER THE AREA. SEVERAL PLACES HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED IN VSBYS...ORE...CEF AND BAF. ANTICIPATE VSBYS TO BE
AROUND 1SM DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE SO ENCOURAGE DRIVERS TO USE
CAUTION. OTHERWISE PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS IS STARTING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND SHOULD SPREAD INTO MASS
OVERNIGHT.

ASIDE FROM FOG...THE OTHER FOCUS IS ON THE CONVECTION ACROSS VT.
HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS THESE STORM DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND
LINGERING INSTABILITY CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS
MOVING INTO NE MASS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
  AND EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN
  MA AND RHODE ISLAND***

TUESDAY...

ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO RESULT
IN A VERY WARM TO EVEN BORDERLINE HOT AFTERNOON.  HIGH TEMPS WILL
TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.  IN ADDITION...IT WILL
BE RATHER HUMID OUTSIDE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND RATHER LIGHT
WINDS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WE CAN NOT RULE
OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  THE MAIN CONCERN THEN TURNS TO A
STRONG PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.  GIVEN VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -10C...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE MLCAPE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG.  THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.  WHILE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...GREATEST
CONCERN IS ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE SHORTWAVE...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT CENTRAL MA.

WILL RUN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
SOME ENHANCED WORDING.  AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK WHICH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
NONETHELESS...STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL LIKELY GENERATE 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND THERE IS AN INVERTED V LOOK TO
THE SOUNDINGS.  THIS MEANS THAT THERE IS THE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE
ISLAND...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT CENTRAL MA.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.  HIGHEST RISK MIGHT BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT THAT SETS
UP ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND AS IT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.  ALSO...SOMETIMES WE END UP WITH SOME TRAINING ON THESE
BOUNDARIES AND THE RISK FOR VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM AND HUMID THU
* SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THU/THU NIGHT
* DRIER/LESS HUMID FRI THRU MON BUT STILL WARM

WED NIGHT/THU/THU NIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT
INTO THU. THUS DRY WEATHER TO START THIS PERIOD HOWEVER THE RISK OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS INCREASES LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS POTENT
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CURRENTLY EXITING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINS TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST.
APPEARS TIMING OF THE FRONT COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WELL AFTER
PEAKING HEATING. THIS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SHEAR KEEPS THE RISK
LOW FOR STRONG CONVECTION LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. HOWEVER GOOD
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THIS TROUGH SUGGEST AT LEAST SHOWERS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. PWATS ABOVE NORMAL AND DEW PTS 65 TO 70 WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH STILL 2 DAYS AWAY WILL NEED TO
MONITOR LATER MODEL TRENDS.

OTHERWISE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. A MODEL BLEND OFFERS HIGHS U80S TO L90S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW/VORTEX SETS UP OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAY THIS TIME
PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND MEAN TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL /HIGHS MU80S/ AND LOWS IN THE 60S ALONG WITH TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY AS DEW PTS AVERAGE IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM JET SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THERE WILL BE THE RISK OF SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES. NOT A WASHOUT BUT THE
RISK OF CONVECTION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...

BEFORE 00Z...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRY WEATHER DOMINATES
OVERNIGHT...A FEW SPOT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NE MASS AROUND
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH COAST AND CT VALLEY. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE
DROPPING TERMINALS TO LIFR.

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
PATCHES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN
MA/RHODE ISLAND. WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE HIT AND MISS...THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MOST SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT
IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS SE MASS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING AROUND
5K. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE AROUND 14-16Z.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HITTING THE TERMINAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NGT/THU...PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG WED NGT BUT QUICKLY IMPROVING
TO VFR THU MORNING. LOW PROB THAT MVFR/IFR IN STRATUS LINGERS ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST THU. THEN UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICK THIS FOG/STRATUS
BURNS OFF SOUTH COAST.

THU NIGHT...VFR-MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE.

FRI AND SAT...VFR LIKELY. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A BETTER CHANCE OF
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
RESULT IN BRIEFLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.  SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS OUR WATERS
ADJACENT TO EASTERN MA.


OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NIGHT AND THU...FAIRLY TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS. POSSIBLE PATCHY
FOG IN HUMID AIRMASS.

THU NIGHT...MODEST SSW WIND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE.

FRI AND SAT...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
MAY ENTER THE WATERS SAT. WSW WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280751
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
351 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND POSSIBLY
RHODE ISLAND TODAY. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVERNIGHT KEEPING TEMPS NEAR STEADY. IN
FACT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S TO UPPER 60S
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE MOISTURE CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALLOWING FOR A
DESCENT INVERSION OVER THE AREA. SEVERAL PLACES HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED IN VSBYS...ORE...CEF AND BAF. ANTICIPATE VSBYS TO BE
AROUND 1SM DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE SO ENCOURAGE DRIVERS TO USE
CAUTION. OTHERWISE PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS IS STARTING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND SHOULD SPREAD INTO MASS
OVERNIGHT.

ASIDE FROM FOG...THE OTHER FOCUS IS ON THE CONVECTION ACROSS VT.
HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS THESE STORM DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND
LINGERING INSTABILITY CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS
MOVING INTO NE MASS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
  AND EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN
  MA AND RHODE ISLAND***

TUESDAY...

ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO RESULT
IN A VERY WARM TO EVEN BORDERLINE HOT AFTERNOON.  HIGH TEMPS WILL
TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.  IN ADDITION...IT WILL
BE RATHER HUMID OUTSIDE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND RATHER LIGHT
WINDS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WE CAN NOT RULE
OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  THE MAIN CONCERN THEN TURNS TO A
STRONG PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.  GIVEN VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -10C...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE MLCAPE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG.  THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.  WHILE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...GREATEST
CONCERN IS ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE SHORTWAVE...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT CENTRAL MA.

WILL RUN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
SOME ENHANCED WORDING.  AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK WHICH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
NONETHELESS...STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL LIKELY GENERATE 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND THERE IS AN INVERTED V LOOK TO
THE SOUNDINGS.  THIS MEANS THAT THERE IS THE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE
ISLAND...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT CENTRAL MA.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.  HIGHEST RISK MIGHT BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT THAT SETS
UP ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND AS IT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.  ALSO...SOMETIMES WE END UP WITH SOME TRAINING ON THESE
BOUNDARIES AND THE RISK FOR VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM AND HUMID THU
* SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THU/THU NIGHT
* DRIER/LESS HUMID FRI THRU MON BUT STILL WARM

WED NIGHT/THU/THU NIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT
INTO THU. THUS DRY WEATHER TO START THIS PERIOD HOWEVER THE RISK OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS INCREASES LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS POTENT
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CURRENTLY EXITING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINS TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST.
APPEARS TIMING OF THE FRONT COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WELL AFTER
PEAKING HEATING. THIS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SHEAR KEEPS THE RISK
LOW FOR STRONG CONVECTION LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. HOWEVER GOOD
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THIS TROUGH SUGGEST AT LEAST SHOWERS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. PWATS ABOVE NORMAL AND DEW PTS 65 TO 70 WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH STILL 2 DAYS AWAY WILL NEED TO
MONITOR LATER MODEL TRENDS.

OTHERWISE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. A MODEL BLEND OFFERS HIGHS U80S TO L90S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW/VORTEX SETS UP OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAY THIS TIME
PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND MEAN TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL /HIGHS MU80S/ AND LOWS IN THE 60S ALONG WITH TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY AS DEW PTS AVERAGE IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM JET SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THERE WILL BE THE RISK OF SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES. NOT A WASHOUT BUT THE
RISK OF CONVECTION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...

BEFORE 00Z...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRY WEATHER DOMINATES
OVERNIGHT...A FEW SPOT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NE MASS AROUND
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH COAST AND CT VALLEY. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE
DROPPING TERMINALS TO LIFR.

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
PATCHES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN
MA/RHODE ISLAND. WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE HIT AND MISS...THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MOST SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT
IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS SE MASS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING AROUND
5K. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE AROUND 14-16Z.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HITTING THE TERMINAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NGT/THU...PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG WED NGT BUT QUICKLY IMPROVING
TO VFR THU MORNING. LOW PROB THAT MVFR/IFR IN STRATUS LINGERS ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST THU. THEN UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICK THIS FOG/STRATUS
BURNS OFF SOUTH COAST.

THU NIGHT...VFR-MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE.

FRI AND SAT...VFR LIKELY. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A BETTER CHANCE OF
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
RESULT IN BRIEFLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.  SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS OUR WATERS
ADJACENT TO EASTERN MA.


OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NIGHT AND THU...FAIRLY TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS. POSSIBLE PATCHY
FOG IN HUMID AIRMASS.

THU NIGHT...MODEST SSW WIND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE.

FRI AND SAT...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
MAY ENTER THE WATERS SAT. WSW WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280751
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
351 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND POSSIBLY
RHODE ISLAND TODAY. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVERNIGHT KEEPING TEMPS NEAR STEADY. IN
FACT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S TO UPPER 60S
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE MOISTURE CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALLOWING FOR A
DESCENT INVERSION OVER THE AREA. SEVERAL PLACES HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED IN VSBYS...ORE...CEF AND BAF. ANTICIPATE VSBYS TO BE
AROUND 1SM DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE SO ENCOURAGE DRIVERS TO USE
CAUTION. OTHERWISE PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS IS STARTING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND SHOULD SPREAD INTO MASS
OVERNIGHT.

ASIDE FROM FOG...THE OTHER FOCUS IS ON THE CONVECTION ACROSS VT.
HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS THESE STORM DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND
LINGERING INSTABILITY CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS
MOVING INTO NE MASS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
  AND EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN
  MA AND RHODE ISLAND***

TUESDAY...

ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO RESULT
IN A VERY WARM TO EVEN BORDERLINE HOT AFTERNOON.  HIGH TEMPS WILL
TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.  IN ADDITION...IT WILL
BE RATHER HUMID OUTSIDE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND RATHER LIGHT
WINDS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WE CAN NOT RULE
OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  THE MAIN CONCERN THEN TURNS TO A
STRONG PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.  GIVEN VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -10C...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE MLCAPE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG.  THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.  WHILE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...GREATEST
CONCERN IS ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE SHORTWAVE...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT CENTRAL MA.

WILL RUN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
SOME ENHANCED WORDING.  AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK WHICH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
NONETHELESS...STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL LIKELY GENERATE 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND THERE IS AN INVERTED V LOOK TO
THE SOUNDINGS.  THIS MEANS THAT THERE IS THE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE
ISLAND...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT CENTRAL MA.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.  HIGHEST RISK MIGHT BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT THAT SETS
UP ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND AS IT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.  ALSO...SOMETIMES WE END UP WITH SOME TRAINING ON THESE
BOUNDARIES AND THE RISK FOR VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM AND HUMID THU
* SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THU/THU NIGHT
* DRIER/LESS HUMID FRI THRU MON BUT STILL WARM

WED NIGHT/THU/THU NIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT
INTO THU. THUS DRY WEATHER TO START THIS PERIOD HOWEVER THE RISK OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS INCREASES LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS POTENT
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CURRENTLY EXITING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINS TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST.
APPEARS TIMING OF THE FRONT COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WELL AFTER
PEAKING HEATING. THIS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SHEAR KEEPS THE RISK
LOW FOR STRONG CONVECTION LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. HOWEVER GOOD
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THIS TROUGH SUGGEST AT LEAST SHOWERS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. PWATS ABOVE NORMAL AND DEW PTS 65 TO 70 WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH STILL 2 DAYS AWAY WILL NEED TO
MONITOR LATER MODEL TRENDS.

OTHERWISE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. A MODEL BLEND OFFERS HIGHS U80S TO L90S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW/VORTEX SETS UP OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAY THIS TIME
PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND MEAN TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL /HIGHS MU80S/ AND LOWS IN THE 60S ALONG WITH TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY AS DEW PTS AVERAGE IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM JET SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THERE WILL BE THE RISK OF SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES. NOT A WASHOUT BUT THE
RISK OF CONVECTION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...

BEFORE 00Z...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRY WEATHER DOMINATES
OVERNIGHT...A FEW SPOT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NE MASS AROUND
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH COAST AND CT VALLEY. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE
DROPPING TERMINALS TO LIFR.

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
PATCHES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN
MA/RHODE ISLAND. WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE HIT AND MISS...THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MOST SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT
IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS SE MASS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING AROUND
5K. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE AROUND 14-16Z.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HITTING THE TERMINAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NGT/THU...PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG WED NGT BUT QUICKLY IMPROVING
TO VFR THU MORNING. LOW PROB THAT MVFR/IFR IN STRATUS LINGERS ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST THU. THEN UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICK THIS FOG/STRATUS
BURNS OFF SOUTH COAST.

THU NIGHT...VFR-MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE.

FRI AND SAT...VFR LIKELY. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A BETTER CHANCE OF
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
RESULT IN BRIEFLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.  SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS OUR WATERS
ADJACENT TO EASTERN MA.


OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NIGHT AND THU...FAIRLY TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS. POSSIBLE PATCHY
FOG IN HUMID AIRMASS.

THU NIGHT...MODEST SSW WIND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE.

FRI AND SAT...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
MAY ENTER THE WATERS SAT. WSW WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280540
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
140 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOT AND HUMID TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY
BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVERNIGHT KEEPING TEMPS NEAR STEADY. IN
FACT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S TO UPPER 60S
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE MOISTURE CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALLOWING FOR A
DESCENT INVERSION OVER THE AREA. SEVERAL PLACES HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED IN VSBYS...ORE...CEF AND BAF. ANTICIPATE VSBYS TO BE
AROUND 1SM DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE SO ENCOURAGE DRIVERS TO USE
CAUTION. OTHERWISE PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS IS STARTING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND SHOULD SPREAD INTO MASS
OVERNIGHT.

ASIDE FROM FOG...THE OTHER FOCUS IS ON THE CONVECTION ACROSS VT.
HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS THESE STORM DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND
LINGERING INSTABILITY CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS
MOVING INTO NE MASS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
  AND EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN
  MA AND RHODE ISLAND***

TUESDAY...

ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO RESULT
IN A VERY WARM TO EVEN BORDERLINE HOT AFTERNOON.  HIGH TEMPS WILL
TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.  IN ADDITION...IT WILL
BE RATHER HUMID OUTSIDE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND RATHER LIGHT
WINDS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WE CAN NOT RULE
OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  THE MAIN CONCERN THEN TURNS TO A
STRONG PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.  GIVEN VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -10C...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE MLCAPE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG.  THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.  WHILE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...GREATEST
CONCERN IS ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE SHORTWAVE...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT CENTRAL MA.

WILL RUN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
SOME ENHANCED WORDING.  AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK WHICH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
NONETHELESS...STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL LIKELY GENERATE 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND THERE IS AN INVERTED V LOOK TO
THE SOUNDINGS.  THIS MEANS THAT THERE IS THE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE
ISLAND...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT CENTRAL MA.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.  HIGHEST RISK MIGHT BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT THAT SETS
UP ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND AS IT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.  ALSO...SOMETIMES WE END UP WITH SOME TRAINING ON THESE
BOUNDARIES AND THE RISK FOR VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRIPLE-H WEATHER WED/THU WITH HIGHS IN 90S.
* SCATTERED STORMS THU/THU NIGHT.
* DRIER BUT STILL VERY WARM FRI THRU SUN.

OVERALL...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY WEAKENS AS
ITS PUSHED EASTWARD BY AN UPPER LOW TRAVELING ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE.  THIS LOW WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER HUDSON BAY AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE SURFACE
REFLECTION PARKED JUST BELOW IN ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION.  THIS WILL
KEEP SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
BRINGING HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT AS A FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW
PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES MOVES OFFSHORE.  OTHERWISE...A FAIRLY
HUMID NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER HOT...HUMID...AND HAZY DAY EXPECTED AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...HEAT INDICES WILL EASILY
BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100.  MAIN QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
BE WHETHER OR NOT THEY COULD REACH 100 AND HEAT ADVISORIES BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE IN HUDSON
BAY WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING FOR A POTENTIAL
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
DECENT INSTABILITY...0-6KM SHEAR...AND MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL ALLOW A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN FAIRLY
STATIONARY...EXPECT HOT AND SOMEWHAT HUMID WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...

BEFORE 00Z...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRY WEATHER DOMINATES
OVERNIGHT...A FEW SPOT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NE MASS AROUND
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH COAST AND CT VALLEY. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE
DROPPING TERMINALS TO LIFR.

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
PATCHES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN
MA/RHODE ISLAND. WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE HIT AND MISS...THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MOST SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT
IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS SE MASS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING AROUND
5K. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE AROUND 14-16Z.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HITTING THE TERMINAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR EXCEPT IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A BETTER CHANCE OF
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
RESULT IN BRIEFLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.  SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS OUR WATERS
ADJACENT TO EASTERN MA.


OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE MAY BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280540
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
140 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOT AND HUMID TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY
BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVERNIGHT KEEPING TEMPS NEAR STEADY. IN
FACT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S TO UPPER 60S
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE MOISTURE CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALLOWING FOR A
DESCENT INVERSION OVER THE AREA. SEVERAL PLACES HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED IN VSBYS...ORE...CEF AND BAF. ANTICIPATE VSBYS TO BE
AROUND 1SM DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE SO ENCOURAGE DRIVERS TO USE
CAUTION. OTHERWISE PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS IS STARTING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND SHOULD SPREAD INTO MASS
OVERNIGHT.

ASIDE FROM FOG...THE OTHER FOCUS IS ON THE CONVECTION ACROSS VT.
HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS THESE STORM DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND
LINGERING INSTABILITY CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS
MOVING INTO NE MASS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
  AND EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN
  MA AND RHODE ISLAND***

TUESDAY...

ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO RESULT
IN A VERY WARM TO EVEN BORDERLINE HOT AFTERNOON.  HIGH TEMPS WILL
TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.  IN ADDITION...IT WILL
BE RATHER HUMID OUTSIDE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND RATHER LIGHT
WINDS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WE CAN NOT RULE
OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  THE MAIN CONCERN THEN TURNS TO A
STRONG PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.  GIVEN VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -10C...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE MLCAPE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG.  THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.  WHILE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...GREATEST
CONCERN IS ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE SHORTWAVE...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT CENTRAL MA.

WILL RUN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
SOME ENHANCED WORDING.  AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK WHICH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
NONETHELESS...STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL LIKELY GENERATE 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND THERE IS AN INVERTED V LOOK TO
THE SOUNDINGS.  THIS MEANS THAT THERE IS THE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE
ISLAND...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT CENTRAL MA.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.  HIGHEST RISK MIGHT BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT THAT SETS
UP ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND AS IT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.  ALSO...SOMETIMES WE END UP WITH SOME TRAINING ON THESE
BOUNDARIES AND THE RISK FOR VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRIPLE-H WEATHER WED/THU WITH HIGHS IN 90S.
* SCATTERED STORMS THU/THU NIGHT.
* DRIER BUT STILL VERY WARM FRI THRU SUN.

OVERALL...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY WEAKENS AS
ITS PUSHED EASTWARD BY AN UPPER LOW TRAVELING ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE.  THIS LOW WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER HUDSON BAY AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE SURFACE
REFLECTION PARKED JUST BELOW IN ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION.  THIS WILL
KEEP SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
BRINGING HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT AS A FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW
PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES MOVES OFFSHORE.  OTHERWISE...A FAIRLY
HUMID NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER HOT...HUMID...AND HAZY DAY EXPECTED AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...HEAT INDICES WILL EASILY
BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100.  MAIN QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
BE WHETHER OR NOT THEY COULD REACH 100 AND HEAT ADVISORIES BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE IN HUDSON
BAY WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING FOR A POTENTIAL
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
DECENT INSTABILITY...0-6KM SHEAR...AND MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL ALLOW A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN FAIRLY
STATIONARY...EXPECT HOT AND SOMEWHAT HUMID WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...

BEFORE 00Z...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRY WEATHER DOMINATES
OVERNIGHT...A FEW SPOT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NE MASS AROUND
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH COAST AND CT VALLEY. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE
DROPPING TERMINALS TO LIFR.

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
PATCHES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN
MA/RHODE ISLAND. WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE HIT AND MISS...THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MOST SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT
IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS SE MASS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING AROUND
5K. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE AROUND 14-16Z.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HITTING THE TERMINAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR EXCEPT IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A BETTER CHANCE OF
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
RESULT IN BRIEFLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.  SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS OUR WATERS
ADJACENT TO EASTERN MA.


OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE MAY BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KGYX 280408
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1208 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED HOURLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO TRY TO SHOW BEST
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
BEGINNING TO CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AND WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD MAINTAIN
A THUNDERSTORM THREAT BUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY.
FLOODING THREAT MAY HAVE ALSO SUBSIDED AS STORM MOTION IS QUICKER
NOW.

9 PM UPDATE...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO RAISE HAVOC SO HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS HIGHER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS STILL PERSIST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST WHICH SHOWS UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION OF THIS VERY MOIST AIR MASS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT. VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE COOLER ATLANTIC WATERS IS A
FOG GENERATING MACHINE BUT LACK OF AN ONSHORE WIND FLOW TO PUSH IT
INLAND SO CURRENT GUT FEELING IS TO KEEP WIDESPREAD OCEAN FOG TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WITH PATCHY AREAS FURTHER INLAND.

700 PM UPDATE...
INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND NEEDED JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AT THIS TIME. DREADED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
COMBINED WITH JUICED UP ATMOSPHERE MEANS MORE CONVECTION AHEAD
LATE TONIGHT AS SOME MODELS INDICATING. TRENDS OF WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH UPPER FLOW. MAY NEED TO ADJUST POPS
FOR LATER TONIGHT ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN NH LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WANE BEFORE
SUNSET...BUT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN ZONES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THESE SHOULD
TRACK EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STAY ROUGHLY NORTH AND EAST OF OF KRKD-KHIE LINE
WITH LITTLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THERE OVERNIGHT.
ONCE AGAIN COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
PERSIST THRU TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S N TO MID- UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALTHOUGH CAPPING INVERSION ALSO WILL BE PRESENT SO THAT
WILL LIMIT CONVECTION TO PLACES THAT CAN GENERATE FORCING.
HOWEVER...WILL SEE DISTINCT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DEVELOP...WHICH
WILL ACTUALLY BE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY WEAK SURFACE WIND SHIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...AND THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. ALSO...STRONG SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES OF
1000 TO 2000...COMBINED WITH AT LEAST GOOD VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR
WILL HELP GENERATE GOOD UPDRAFTS AND PULSE STORMS THAT COULD
PRODUCE STRONG WINDS. ALSO...LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY REGION WILL BEING HELICITY
VALUES IN THE 100-200 RANGE...SO CHANCE FOR A COUPLE ROTATING
UPDRAFTS AS WELL COULD ADD LARGER HAIL TO THE MIX. MAXES WILL
RISE TO NEAR 90 IN SOUTHERN NH...AND 80S MOST OTHER PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S.

WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD DIE
OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING AND FOG FORMING
AGAIN. COULD SEE MINS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MONDAY NIGHT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE TRAVERSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY. IT`LL BE A HOT AND HUMID DAY
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. BY THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE WITH NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID DAY...WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS LEAD IMPULSE...WE CARVE OUT
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THAT WILL FEATURE A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS
PROCESSION OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
FRONTS OR TROUGHS. FRIDAY FEATURES SOME WEAK RIDGING...AND ONLY A
MINIMAL CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...WITH CONVECTION TO BE STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD THEN FRIDAY. THE NEXT IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE AS
WELL. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ON TUESDAY...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY...SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...

THURSDAY EVENING - FRIDAY MORNING...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280408
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1208 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED HOURLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO TRY TO SHOW BEST
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
BEGINNING TO CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AND WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD MAINTAIN
A THUNDERSTORM THREAT BUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY.
FLOODING THREAT MAY HAVE ALSO SUBSIDED AS STORM MOTION IS QUICKER
NOW.

9 PM UPDATE...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO RAISE HAVOC SO HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS HIGHER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS STILL PERSIST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST WHICH SHOWS UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION OF THIS VERY MOIST AIR MASS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT. VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE COOLER ATLANTIC WATERS IS A
FOG GENERATING MACHINE BUT LACK OF AN ONSHORE WIND FLOW TO PUSH IT
INLAND SO CURRENT GUT FEELING IS TO KEEP WIDESPREAD OCEAN FOG TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WITH PATCHY AREAS FURTHER INLAND.

700 PM UPDATE...
INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND NEEDED JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AT THIS TIME. DREADED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
COMBINED WITH JUICED UP ATMOSPHERE MEANS MORE CONVECTION AHEAD
LATE TONIGHT AS SOME MODELS INDICATING. TRENDS OF WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH UPPER FLOW. MAY NEED TO ADJUST POPS
FOR LATER TONIGHT ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN NH LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WANE BEFORE
SUNSET...BUT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN ZONES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THESE SHOULD
TRACK EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STAY ROUGHLY NORTH AND EAST OF OF KRKD-KHIE LINE
WITH LITTLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THERE OVERNIGHT.
ONCE AGAIN COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
PERSIST THRU TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S N TO MID- UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALTHOUGH CAPPING INVERSION ALSO WILL BE PRESENT SO THAT
WILL LIMIT CONVECTION TO PLACES THAT CAN GENERATE FORCING.
HOWEVER...WILL SEE DISTINCT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DEVELOP...WHICH
WILL ACTUALLY BE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY WEAK SURFACE WIND SHIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...AND THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. ALSO...STRONG SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES OF
1000 TO 2000...COMBINED WITH AT LEAST GOOD VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR
WILL HELP GENERATE GOOD UPDRAFTS AND PULSE STORMS THAT COULD
PRODUCE STRONG WINDS. ALSO...LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY REGION WILL BEING HELICITY
VALUES IN THE 100-200 RANGE...SO CHANCE FOR A COUPLE ROTATING
UPDRAFTS AS WELL COULD ADD LARGER HAIL TO THE MIX. MAXES WILL
RISE TO NEAR 90 IN SOUTHERN NH...AND 80S MOST OTHER PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S.

WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD DIE
OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING AND FOG FORMING
AGAIN. COULD SEE MINS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MONDAY NIGHT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE TRAVERSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY. IT`LL BE A HOT AND HUMID DAY
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. BY THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE WITH NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID DAY...WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS LEAD IMPULSE...WE CARVE OUT
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THAT WILL FEATURE A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS
PROCESSION OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
FRONTS OR TROUGHS. FRIDAY FEATURES SOME WEAK RIDGING...AND ONLY A
MINIMAL CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...WITH CONVECTION TO BE STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD THEN FRIDAY. THE NEXT IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE AS
WELL. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ON TUESDAY...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY...SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...

THURSDAY EVENING - FRIDAY MORNING...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280408
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1208 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED HOURLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO TRY TO SHOW BEST
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
BEGINNING TO CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AND WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD MAINTAIN
A THUNDERSTORM THREAT BUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY.
FLOODING THREAT MAY HAVE ALSO SUBSIDED AS STORM MOTION IS QUICKER
NOW.

9 PM UPDATE...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO RAISE HAVOC SO HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS HIGHER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS STILL PERSIST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST WHICH SHOWS UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION OF THIS VERY MOIST AIR MASS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT. VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE COOLER ATLANTIC WATERS IS A
FOG GENERATING MACHINE BUT LACK OF AN ONSHORE WIND FLOW TO PUSH IT
INLAND SO CURRENT GUT FEELING IS TO KEEP WIDESPREAD OCEAN FOG TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WITH PATCHY AREAS FURTHER INLAND.

700 PM UPDATE...
INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND NEEDED JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AT THIS TIME. DREADED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
COMBINED WITH JUICED UP ATMOSPHERE MEANS MORE CONVECTION AHEAD
LATE TONIGHT AS SOME MODELS INDICATING. TRENDS OF WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH UPPER FLOW. MAY NEED TO ADJUST POPS
FOR LATER TONIGHT ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN NH LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WANE BEFORE
SUNSET...BUT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN ZONES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THESE SHOULD
TRACK EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STAY ROUGHLY NORTH AND EAST OF OF KRKD-KHIE LINE
WITH LITTLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THERE OVERNIGHT.
ONCE AGAIN COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
PERSIST THRU TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S N TO MID- UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALTHOUGH CAPPING INVERSION ALSO WILL BE PRESENT SO THAT
WILL LIMIT CONVECTION TO PLACES THAT CAN GENERATE FORCING.
HOWEVER...WILL SEE DISTINCT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DEVELOP...WHICH
WILL ACTUALLY BE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY WEAK SURFACE WIND SHIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...AND THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. ALSO...STRONG SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES OF
1000 TO 2000...COMBINED WITH AT LEAST GOOD VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR
WILL HELP GENERATE GOOD UPDRAFTS AND PULSE STORMS THAT COULD
PRODUCE STRONG WINDS. ALSO...LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY REGION WILL BEING HELICITY
VALUES IN THE 100-200 RANGE...SO CHANCE FOR A COUPLE ROTATING
UPDRAFTS AS WELL COULD ADD LARGER HAIL TO THE MIX. MAXES WILL
RISE TO NEAR 90 IN SOUTHERN NH...AND 80S MOST OTHER PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S.

WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD DIE
OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING AND FOG FORMING
AGAIN. COULD SEE MINS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MONDAY NIGHT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE TRAVERSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY. IT`LL BE A HOT AND HUMID DAY
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. BY THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE WITH NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID DAY...WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS LEAD IMPULSE...WE CARVE OUT
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THAT WILL FEATURE A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS
PROCESSION OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
FRONTS OR TROUGHS. FRIDAY FEATURES SOME WEAK RIDGING...AND ONLY A
MINIMAL CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...WITH CONVECTION TO BE STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD THEN FRIDAY. THE NEXT IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE AS
WELL. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ON TUESDAY...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY...SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...

THURSDAY EVENING - FRIDAY MORNING...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280408
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1208 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED HOURLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO TRY TO SHOW BEST
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
BEGINNING TO CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AND WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD MAINTAIN
A THUNDERSTORM THREAT BUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY.
FLOODING THREAT MAY HAVE ALSO SUBSIDED AS STORM MOTION IS QUICKER
NOW.

9 PM UPDATE...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO RAISE HAVOC SO HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS HIGHER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS STILL PERSIST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST WHICH SHOWS UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION OF THIS VERY MOIST AIR MASS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT. VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE COOLER ATLANTIC WATERS IS A
FOG GENERATING MACHINE BUT LACK OF AN ONSHORE WIND FLOW TO PUSH IT
INLAND SO CURRENT GUT FEELING IS TO KEEP WIDESPREAD OCEAN FOG TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WITH PATCHY AREAS FURTHER INLAND.

700 PM UPDATE...
INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND NEEDED JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AT THIS TIME. DREADED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
COMBINED WITH JUICED UP ATMOSPHERE MEANS MORE CONVECTION AHEAD
LATE TONIGHT AS SOME MODELS INDICATING. TRENDS OF WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH UPPER FLOW. MAY NEED TO ADJUST POPS
FOR LATER TONIGHT ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN NH LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WANE BEFORE
SUNSET...BUT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN ZONES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THESE SHOULD
TRACK EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STAY ROUGHLY NORTH AND EAST OF OF KRKD-KHIE LINE
WITH LITTLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THERE OVERNIGHT.
ONCE AGAIN COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
PERSIST THRU TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S N TO MID- UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALTHOUGH CAPPING INVERSION ALSO WILL BE PRESENT SO THAT
WILL LIMIT CONVECTION TO PLACES THAT CAN GENERATE FORCING.
HOWEVER...WILL SEE DISTINCT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DEVELOP...WHICH
WILL ACTUALLY BE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY WEAK SURFACE WIND SHIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...AND THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. ALSO...STRONG SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES OF
1000 TO 2000...COMBINED WITH AT LEAST GOOD VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR
WILL HELP GENERATE GOOD UPDRAFTS AND PULSE STORMS THAT COULD
PRODUCE STRONG WINDS. ALSO...LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY REGION WILL BEING HELICITY
VALUES IN THE 100-200 RANGE...SO CHANCE FOR A COUPLE ROTATING
UPDRAFTS AS WELL COULD ADD LARGER HAIL TO THE MIX. MAXES WILL
RISE TO NEAR 90 IN SOUTHERN NH...AND 80S MOST OTHER PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S.

WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD DIE
OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING AND FOG FORMING
AGAIN. COULD SEE MINS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MONDAY NIGHT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE TRAVERSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY. IT`LL BE A HOT AND HUMID DAY
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. BY THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE WITH NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID DAY...WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS LEAD IMPULSE...WE CARVE OUT
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THAT WILL FEATURE A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS
PROCESSION OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
FRONTS OR TROUGHS. FRIDAY FEATURES SOME WEAK RIDGING...AND ONLY A
MINIMAL CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...WITH CONVECTION TO BE STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD THEN FRIDAY. THE NEXT IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE AS
WELL. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ON TUESDAY...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY...SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...

THURSDAY EVENING - FRIDAY MORNING...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280148
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
948 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOT AND HUMID TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY
BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

RADAR HAS QUIETED DOWN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THEREFOR HAVE
LOWERED POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN FROM THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO LINE.
BELIEVE THIS SHORTWAVE WILL TRIGGER A SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE AREA
WITH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEE MORE
COVERAGE. STILL PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD
ALLOW A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITHIN ANY SHOWERS.

SKIES ARE STARTING TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE CT VALLEY. SINCE THAT
REGION SAW A GOOD 1-3 INCHES OF PRECIP ANTICIPATE IT TO FOG IN
OVERNIGHT DO TO INVERSION. WILL CONTINUE TO WAIT AND SEE WHEN THE
FOG DEVELOPS TO DEBATE ON HOISTING A DENSE FOG ADV.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE DRY. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE RISK FOR A FEW SPOT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL FORCING DOES NOT SEEM AS
STRONG AS LAST NIGHT THOUGH DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH MUCAPES.
THEREFORE...JUST WENT WITH LOW POPS OVERNIGHT AS MUCH OF THE
REGION SHOULD END UP DRY.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  THAT WILL DEPEND
UPON THE AMOUNT OF BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT SOMETHING
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY.  LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 65 AND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
  AND EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN
  MA AND RHODE ISLAND***

TUESDAY...

ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO RESULT
IN A VERY WARM TO EVEN BORDERLINE HOT AFTERNOON.  HIGH TEMPS WILL
TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.  IN ADDITION...IT WILL
BE RATHER HUMID OUTSIDE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND RATHER LIGHT
WINDS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WE CAN NOT RULE
OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  THE MAIN CONCERN THEN TURNS TO A
STRONG PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.  GIVEN VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -10C...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE MLCAPE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG.  THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.  WHILE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...GREATEST
CONCERN IS ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE SHORTWAVE...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT CENTRAL MA.

WILL RUN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
SOME ENHANCED WORDING.  AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK WHICH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
NONETHELESS...STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL LIKELY GENERATE 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND THERE IS AN INVERTED V LOOK TO
THE SOUNDINGS.  THIS MEANS THAT THERE IS THE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE
ISLAND...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT CENTRAL MA.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.  HIGHEST RISK MIGHT BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT THAT SETS
UP ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND AS IT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.  ALSO...SOMETIMES WE END UP WITH SOME TRAINING ON THESE
BOUNDARIES AND THE RISK FOR VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRIPLE-H WEATHER WED/THU WITH HIGHS IN 90S.
* SCATTERED STORMS THU/THU NIGHT.
* DRIER BUT STILL VERY WARM FRI THRU SUN.

OVERALL...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY WEAKENS AS
ITS PUSHED EASTWARD BY AN UPPER LOW TRAVELING ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE.  THIS LOW WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER HUDSON BAY AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE SURFACE
REFLECTION PARKED JUST BELOW IN ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION.  THIS WILL
KEEP SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
BRINGING HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT AS A FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW
PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES MOVES OFFSHORE.  OTHERWISE...A FAIRLY
HUMID NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER HOT...HUMID...AND HAZY DAY EXPECTED AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...HEAT INDICES WILL EASILY
BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100.  MAIN QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
BE WHETHER OR NOT THEY COULD REACH 100 AND HEAT ADVISORIES BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE IN HUDSON
BAY WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING FOR A POTENTIAL
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
DECENT INSTABILITY...0-6KM SHEAR...AND MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL ALLOW A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN FAIRLY
STATIONARY...EXPECT HOT AND SOMEWHAT HUMID WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRY WEATHER PROBABLY
DOMINATES MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...A FEW SPOT SHOWERS OR PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAIN
CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE FORMATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. TIMING
UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
PATCHES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.  MAIN CONCERN IS
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RHODE ISLAND.  WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE
HIT AND MISS...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR EXCEPT IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A BETTER CHANCE OF
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
RESULT IN BRIEFLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.  SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS OUR WATERS
ADJACENT TO EASTERN MA.


OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE MAY BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280148
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
948 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOT AND HUMID TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY
BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

RADAR HAS QUIETED DOWN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THEREFOR HAVE
LOWERED POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN FROM THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO LINE.
BELIEVE THIS SHORTWAVE WILL TRIGGER A SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE AREA
WITH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEE MORE
COVERAGE. STILL PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD
ALLOW A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITHIN ANY SHOWERS.

SKIES ARE STARTING TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE CT VALLEY. SINCE THAT
REGION SAW A GOOD 1-3 INCHES OF PRECIP ANTICIPATE IT TO FOG IN
OVERNIGHT DO TO INVERSION. WILL CONTINUE TO WAIT AND SEE WHEN THE
FOG DEVELOPS TO DEBATE ON HOISTING A DENSE FOG ADV.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE DRY. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE RISK FOR A FEW SPOT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL FORCING DOES NOT SEEM AS
STRONG AS LAST NIGHT THOUGH DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH MUCAPES.
THEREFORE...JUST WENT WITH LOW POPS OVERNIGHT AS MUCH OF THE
REGION SHOULD END UP DRY.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  THAT WILL DEPEND
UPON THE AMOUNT OF BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT SOMETHING
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY.  LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 65 AND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
  AND EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN
  MA AND RHODE ISLAND***

TUESDAY...

ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO RESULT
IN A VERY WARM TO EVEN BORDERLINE HOT AFTERNOON.  HIGH TEMPS WILL
TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.  IN ADDITION...IT WILL
BE RATHER HUMID OUTSIDE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND RATHER LIGHT
WINDS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WE CAN NOT RULE
OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  THE MAIN CONCERN THEN TURNS TO A
STRONG PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.  GIVEN VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -10C...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE MLCAPE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG.  THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.  WHILE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...GREATEST
CONCERN IS ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE SHORTWAVE...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT CENTRAL MA.

WILL RUN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
SOME ENHANCED WORDING.  AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK WHICH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
NONETHELESS...STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL LIKELY GENERATE 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND THERE IS AN INVERTED V LOOK TO
THE SOUNDINGS.  THIS MEANS THAT THERE IS THE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE
ISLAND...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT CENTRAL MA.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.  HIGHEST RISK MIGHT BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT THAT SETS
UP ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND AS IT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.  ALSO...SOMETIMES WE END UP WITH SOME TRAINING ON THESE
BOUNDARIES AND THE RISK FOR VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRIPLE-H WEATHER WED/THU WITH HIGHS IN 90S.
* SCATTERED STORMS THU/THU NIGHT.
* DRIER BUT STILL VERY WARM FRI THRU SUN.

OVERALL...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY WEAKENS AS
ITS PUSHED EASTWARD BY AN UPPER LOW TRAVELING ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE.  THIS LOW WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER HUDSON BAY AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE SURFACE
REFLECTION PARKED JUST BELOW IN ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION.  THIS WILL
KEEP SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
BRINGING HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT AS A FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW
PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES MOVES OFFSHORE.  OTHERWISE...A FAIRLY
HUMID NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER HOT...HUMID...AND HAZY DAY EXPECTED AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...HEAT INDICES WILL EASILY
BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100.  MAIN QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
BE WHETHER OR NOT THEY COULD REACH 100 AND HEAT ADVISORIES BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE IN HUDSON
BAY WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING FOR A POTENTIAL
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
DECENT INSTABILITY...0-6KM SHEAR...AND MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL ALLOW A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN FAIRLY
STATIONARY...EXPECT HOT AND SOMEWHAT HUMID WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRY WEATHER PROBABLY
DOMINATES MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...A FEW SPOT SHOWERS OR PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAIN
CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE FORMATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. TIMING
UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
PATCHES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.  MAIN CONCERN IS
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RHODE ISLAND.  WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE
HIT AND MISS...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR EXCEPT IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A BETTER CHANCE OF
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
RESULT IN BRIEFLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.  SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS OUR WATERS
ADJACENT TO EASTERN MA.


OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE MAY BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280148
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
948 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOT AND HUMID TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY
BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

RADAR HAS QUIETED DOWN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THEREFOR HAVE
LOWERED POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN FROM THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO LINE.
BELIEVE THIS SHORTWAVE WILL TRIGGER A SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE AREA
WITH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEE MORE
COVERAGE. STILL PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD
ALLOW A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITHIN ANY SHOWERS.

SKIES ARE STARTING TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE CT VALLEY. SINCE THAT
REGION SAW A GOOD 1-3 INCHES OF PRECIP ANTICIPATE IT TO FOG IN
OVERNIGHT DO TO INVERSION. WILL CONTINUE TO WAIT AND SEE WHEN THE
FOG DEVELOPS TO DEBATE ON HOISTING A DENSE FOG ADV.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE DRY. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE RISK FOR A FEW SPOT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL FORCING DOES NOT SEEM AS
STRONG AS LAST NIGHT THOUGH DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH MUCAPES.
THEREFORE...JUST WENT WITH LOW POPS OVERNIGHT AS MUCH OF THE
REGION SHOULD END UP DRY.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  THAT WILL DEPEND
UPON THE AMOUNT OF BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT SOMETHING
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY.  LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 65 AND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
  AND EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN
  MA AND RHODE ISLAND***

TUESDAY...

ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO RESULT
IN A VERY WARM TO EVEN BORDERLINE HOT AFTERNOON.  HIGH TEMPS WILL
TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.  IN ADDITION...IT WILL
BE RATHER HUMID OUTSIDE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND RATHER LIGHT
WINDS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WE CAN NOT RULE
OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  THE MAIN CONCERN THEN TURNS TO A
STRONG PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.  GIVEN VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -10C...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE MLCAPE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG.  THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.  WHILE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...GREATEST
CONCERN IS ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE SHORTWAVE...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT CENTRAL MA.

WILL RUN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
SOME ENHANCED WORDING.  AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK WHICH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
NONETHELESS...STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL LIKELY GENERATE 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND THERE IS AN INVERTED V LOOK TO
THE SOUNDINGS.  THIS MEANS THAT THERE IS THE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE
ISLAND...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT CENTRAL MA.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.  HIGHEST RISK MIGHT BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT THAT SETS
UP ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND AS IT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.  ALSO...SOMETIMES WE END UP WITH SOME TRAINING ON THESE
BOUNDARIES AND THE RISK FOR VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRIPLE-H WEATHER WED/THU WITH HIGHS IN 90S.
* SCATTERED STORMS THU/THU NIGHT.
* DRIER BUT STILL VERY WARM FRI THRU SUN.

OVERALL...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY WEAKENS AS
ITS PUSHED EASTWARD BY AN UPPER LOW TRAVELING ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE.  THIS LOW WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER HUDSON BAY AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE SURFACE
REFLECTION PARKED JUST BELOW IN ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION.  THIS WILL
KEEP SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
BRINGING HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT AS A FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW
PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES MOVES OFFSHORE.  OTHERWISE...A FAIRLY
HUMID NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER HOT...HUMID...AND HAZY DAY EXPECTED AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...HEAT INDICES WILL EASILY
BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100.  MAIN QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
BE WHETHER OR NOT THEY COULD REACH 100 AND HEAT ADVISORIES BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE IN HUDSON
BAY WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING FOR A POTENTIAL
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
DECENT INSTABILITY...0-6KM SHEAR...AND MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL ALLOW A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN FAIRLY
STATIONARY...EXPECT HOT AND SOMEWHAT HUMID WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRY WEATHER PROBABLY
DOMINATES MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...A FEW SPOT SHOWERS OR PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAIN
CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE FORMATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. TIMING
UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
PATCHES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.  MAIN CONCERN IS
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RHODE ISLAND.  WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE
HIT AND MISS...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR EXCEPT IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A BETTER CHANCE OF
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
RESULT IN BRIEFLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.  SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS OUR WATERS
ADJACENT TO EASTERN MA.


OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE MAY BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280148
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
948 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOT AND HUMID TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY
BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

RADAR HAS QUIETED DOWN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THEREFOR HAVE
LOWERED POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN FROM THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO LINE.
BELIEVE THIS SHORTWAVE WILL TRIGGER A SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE AREA
WITH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEE MORE
COVERAGE. STILL PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD
ALLOW A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITHIN ANY SHOWERS.

SKIES ARE STARTING TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE CT VALLEY. SINCE THAT
REGION SAW A GOOD 1-3 INCHES OF PRECIP ANTICIPATE IT TO FOG IN
OVERNIGHT DO TO INVERSION. WILL CONTINUE TO WAIT AND SEE WHEN THE
FOG DEVELOPS TO DEBATE ON HOISTING A DENSE FOG ADV.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE DRY. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE RISK FOR A FEW SPOT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL FORCING DOES NOT SEEM AS
STRONG AS LAST NIGHT THOUGH DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH MUCAPES.
THEREFORE...JUST WENT WITH LOW POPS OVERNIGHT AS MUCH OF THE
REGION SHOULD END UP DRY.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  THAT WILL DEPEND
UPON THE AMOUNT OF BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT SOMETHING
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY.  LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 65 AND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
  AND EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN
  MA AND RHODE ISLAND***

TUESDAY...

ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO RESULT
IN A VERY WARM TO EVEN BORDERLINE HOT AFTERNOON.  HIGH TEMPS WILL
TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.  IN ADDITION...IT WILL
BE RATHER HUMID OUTSIDE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND RATHER LIGHT
WINDS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WE CAN NOT RULE
OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  THE MAIN CONCERN THEN TURNS TO A
STRONG PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.  GIVEN VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -10C...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE MLCAPE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG.  THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.  WHILE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...GREATEST
CONCERN IS ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE SHORTWAVE...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT CENTRAL MA.

WILL RUN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
SOME ENHANCED WORDING.  AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK WHICH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
NONETHELESS...STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL LIKELY GENERATE 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND THERE IS AN INVERTED V LOOK TO
THE SOUNDINGS.  THIS MEANS THAT THERE IS THE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE
ISLAND...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT CENTRAL MA.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.  HIGHEST RISK MIGHT BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT THAT SETS
UP ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND AS IT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.  ALSO...SOMETIMES WE END UP WITH SOME TRAINING ON THESE
BOUNDARIES AND THE RISK FOR VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRIPLE-H WEATHER WED/THU WITH HIGHS IN 90S.
* SCATTERED STORMS THU/THU NIGHT.
* DRIER BUT STILL VERY WARM FRI THRU SUN.

OVERALL...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY WEAKENS AS
ITS PUSHED EASTWARD BY AN UPPER LOW TRAVELING ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE.  THIS LOW WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER HUDSON BAY AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE SURFACE
REFLECTION PARKED JUST BELOW IN ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION.  THIS WILL
KEEP SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
BRINGING HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT AS A FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW
PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES MOVES OFFSHORE.  OTHERWISE...A FAIRLY
HUMID NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER HOT...HUMID...AND HAZY DAY EXPECTED AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...HEAT INDICES WILL EASILY
BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100.  MAIN QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
BE WHETHER OR NOT THEY COULD REACH 100 AND HEAT ADVISORIES BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE IN HUDSON
BAY WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING FOR A POTENTIAL
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
DECENT INSTABILITY...0-6KM SHEAR...AND MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL ALLOW A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN FAIRLY
STATIONARY...EXPECT HOT AND SOMEWHAT HUMID WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRY WEATHER PROBABLY
DOMINATES MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...A FEW SPOT SHOWERS OR PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAIN
CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE FORMATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. TIMING
UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
PATCHES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.  MAIN CONCERN IS
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RHODE ISLAND.  WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE
HIT AND MISS...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR EXCEPT IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A BETTER CHANCE OF
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
RESULT IN BRIEFLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.  SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS OUR WATERS
ADJACENT TO EASTERN MA.


OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE MAY BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280148
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
948 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOT AND HUMID TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY
BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

RADAR HAS QUIETED DOWN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THEREFOR HAVE
LOWERED POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN FROM THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO LINE.
BELIEVE THIS SHORTWAVE WILL TRIGGER A SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE AREA
WITH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEE MORE
COVERAGE. STILL PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD
ALLOW A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITHIN ANY SHOWERS.

SKIES ARE STARTING TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE CT VALLEY. SINCE THAT
REGION SAW A GOOD 1-3 INCHES OF PRECIP ANTICIPATE IT TO FOG IN
OVERNIGHT DO TO INVERSION. WILL CONTINUE TO WAIT AND SEE WHEN THE
FOG DEVELOPS TO DEBATE ON HOISTING A DENSE FOG ADV.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE DRY. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE RISK FOR A FEW SPOT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL FORCING DOES NOT SEEM AS
STRONG AS LAST NIGHT THOUGH DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH MUCAPES.
THEREFORE...JUST WENT WITH LOW POPS OVERNIGHT AS MUCH OF THE
REGION SHOULD END UP DRY.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  THAT WILL DEPEND
UPON THE AMOUNT OF BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT SOMETHING
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY.  LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 65 AND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
  AND EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN
  MA AND RHODE ISLAND***

TUESDAY...

ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO RESULT
IN A VERY WARM TO EVEN BORDERLINE HOT AFTERNOON.  HIGH TEMPS WILL
TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.  IN ADDITION...IT WILL
BE RATHER HUMID OUTSIDE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND RATHER LIGHT
WINDS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WE CAN NOT RULE
OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  THE MAIN CONCERN THEN TURNS TO A
STRONG PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.  GIVEN VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -10C...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE MLCAPE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG.  THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.  WHILE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...GREATEST
CONCERN IS ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE SHORTWAVE...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT CENTRAL MA.

WILL RUN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
SOME ENHANCED WORDING.  AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK WHICH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
NONETHELESS...STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL LIKELY GENERATE 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND THERE IS AN INVERTED V LOOK TO
THE SOUNDINGS.  THIS MEANS THAT THERE IS THE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE
ISLAND...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT CENTRAL MA.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.  HIGHEST RISK MIGHT BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT THAT SETS
UP ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND AS IT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.  ALSO...SOMETIMES WE END UP WITH SOME TRAINING ON THESE
BOUNDARIES AND THE RISK FOR VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRIPLE-H WEATHER WED/THU WITH HIGHS IN 90S.
* SCATTERED STORMS THU/THU NIGHT.
* DRIER BUT STILL VERY WARM FRI THRU SUN.

OVERALL...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY WEAKENS AS
ITS PUSHED EASTWARD BY AN UPPER LOW TRAVELING ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE.  THIS LOW WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER HUDSON BAY AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE SURFACE
REFLECTION PARKED JUST BELOW IN ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION.  THIS WILL
KEEP SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
BRINGING HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT AS A FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW
PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES MOVES OFFSHORE.  OTHERWISE...A FAIRLY
HUMID NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER HOT...HUMID...AND HAZY DAY EXPECTED AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...HEAT INDICES WILL EASILY
BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100.  MAIN QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
BE WHETHER OR NOT THEY COULD REACH 100 AND HEAT ADVISORIES BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE IN HUDSON
BAY WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING FOR A POTENTIAL
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
DECENT INSTABILITY...0-6KM SHEAR...AND MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL ALLOW A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN FAIRLY
STATIONARY...EXPECT HOT AND SOMEWHAT HUMID WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRY WEATHER PROBABLY
DOMINATES MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...A FEW SPOT SHOWERS OR PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAIN
CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE FORMATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. TIMING
UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
PATCHES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.  MAIN CONCERN IS
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RHODE ISLAND.  WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE
HIT AND MISS...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR EXCEPT IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A BETTER CHANCE OF
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
RESULT IN BRIEFLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.  SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS OUR WATERS
ADJACENT TO EASTERN MA.


OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE MAY BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280109
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
909 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
9 PM UPDATE: NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO RAISE HAVOC SO HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS HIGHER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS EXPECTED.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS STILL PERSIST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST WHICH SHOWS UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. FURTHER DESTABLIZATION OF THIS VERY MOIST AIR MASS
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE COOLER
ATLANTIC WATERS IS A FOG GENERATING MACHINE BUT LACK OF AN ONSHORE
WIND FLOW TO PUSH IT INLAND SO CURRENT GUT FEELING IS TO KEEP
WIDESPREAD OCEAN FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WITH PATCHY AREAS
FURTHER INLAND.

705 PM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND NEEDED JUST MINOR TWEAKS
TO TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AT THIS TIME. DREADED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COMBINED WITH JUICED UP ATMOSPHERE MEANS MORE CONVECTION
AHEAD LATE TONIGHT AS SOME MODELS INDICATING. TRENDS OF WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS
A SHORT WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH UPPER FLOW. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST POPS FOR LATER TONIGHT ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN NH LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WANE BEFORE
SUNSET...BUT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN ZONES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THESE SHOULD
TRACK EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STAY ROUGHLY N AND E OF OF KRKD-KHIE LINE WITH
LITTLE SHRA OR TSRA S OF THERE OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN COASTAL FOG
AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THRU TUE
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S N TO
MID-UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT PASSES JUST N OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH
CAPPING INVERSION ALSO WILL BE PRESENT SO THAT WILL LIMIT
CONVECTION TO PLACES THAT CAN GENERATE FORCING. HOWEVER...WILL SEE
DISTINCT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DEVELOP...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BE
SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY WEAK SFC WINDSHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE...AND THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
ALSO...STRONG SFC BASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES OF 1K-
2K...COMBINED WITH AT LEAST GOOD VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR WILL HELP
GENERATE GOOD UPDRAFTS AND PULSE STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS. ALSO...LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY REGION WILL BEING HELICITY VALUES INT EH
100-200 RANGE...SO CHANCE FOR A COUPLE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AS
WELL...WILL COULD ADD LARGER HAIL TO THE MIX. MAXES WILL RISE TO
NEAR 90 IN SRN NH...AND 80S MOST OTHER PLACES WITH TDS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S.

WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD DIE
OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING AND FOG FORMING
AGAIN. COULD SEE MINS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MON NIGHT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE TRAVERSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY. IT`LL BE A HOT AND HUMID DAY
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. BY THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE WITH NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID DAY...WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS LEAD IMPULSE...WE CARVE OUT
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THAT WILL FEATURE A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS
PROCESSION OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
FRONTS OR TROUGHS. FRIDAY FEATURES SOME WEAK RIDGING...AND ONLY A
MINIMAL CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...WITH CONVECTION TO BE STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD THEN FRIDAY. THE NEXT IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ON TUESDAY...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

WED - SAT...SCT MVFR IN SHRA AND TSRA EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...

THU PM - FRI AM...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280109
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
909 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
9 PM UPDATE: NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO RAISE HAVOC SO HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS HIGHER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS EXPECTED.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS STILL PERSIST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST WHICH SHOWS UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. FURTHER DESTABLIZATION OF THIS VERY MOIST AIR MASS
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE COOLER
ATLANTIC WATERS IS A FOG GENERATING MACHINE BUT LACK OF AN ONSHORE
WIND FLOW TO PUSH IT INLAND SO CURRENT GUT FEELING IS TO KEEP
WIDESPREAD OCEAN FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WITH PATCHY AREAS
FURTHER INLAND.

705 PM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND NEEDED JUST MINOR TWEAKS
TO TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AT THIS TIME. DREADED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COMBINED WITH JUICED UP ATMOSPHERE MEANS MORE CONVECTION
AHEAD LATE TONIGHT AS SOME MODELS INDICATING. TRENDS OF WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS
A SHORT WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH UPPER FLOW. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST POPS FOR LATER TONIGHT ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN NH LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WANE BEFORE
SUNSET...BUT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN ZONES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THESE SHOULD
TRACK EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STAY ROUGHLY N AND E OF OF KRKD-KHIE LINE WITH
LITTLE SHRA OR TSRA S OF THERE OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN COASTAL FOG
AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THRU TUE
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S N TO
MID-UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT PASSES JUST N OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH
CAPPING INVERSION ALSO WILL BE PRESENT SO THAT WILL LIMIT
CONVECTION TO PLACES THAT CAN GENERATE FORCING. HOWEVER...WILL SEE
DISTINCT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DEVELOP...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BE
SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY WEAK SFC WINDSHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE...AND THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
ALSO...STRONG SFC BASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES OF 1K-
2K...COMBINED WITH AT LEAST GOOD VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR WILL HELP
GENERATE GOOD UPDRAFTS AND PULSE STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS. ALSO...LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY REGION WILL BEING HELICITY VALUES INT EH
100-200 RANGE...SO CHANCE FOR A COUPLE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AS
WELL...WILL COULD ADD LARGER HAIL TO THE MIX. MAXES WILL RISE TO
NEAR 90 IN SRN NH...AND 80S MOST OTHER PLACES WITH TDS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S.

WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD DIE
OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING AND FOG FORMING
AGAIN. COULD SEE MINS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MON NIGHT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE TRAVERSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY. IT`LL BE A HOT AND HUMID DAY
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. BY THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE WITH NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID DAY...WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS LEAD IMPULSE...WE CARVE OUT
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THAT WILL FEATURE A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS
PROCESSION OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
FRONTS OR TROUGHS. FRIDAY FEATURES SOME WEAK RIDGING...AND ONLY A
MINIMAL CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...WITH CONVECTION TO BE STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD THEN FRIDAY. THE NEXT IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ON TUESDAY...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

WED - SAT...SCT MVFR IN SHRA AND TSRA EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...

THU PM - FRI AM...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 272315
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
715 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
705 PM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND NEEDED JUST MINOR TWEAKS
TO TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AT THIS TIME. DREADED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COMBINED WITH JUICED UP ATMOSPHERE MEANS MORE CONVECTION
AHEAD LATE TONIGHT AS SOME MODELS INDICATING. TRENDS OF WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS
A SHORT WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH UPPER FLOW. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST POPS FOR LATER TONIGHT ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN NH LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WANE BEFORE
SUNSET...BUT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN ZONES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THESE SHOULD
TRACK EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STAY ROUGHLY N AND E OF OF KRKD-KHIE LINE WITH
LITTLE SHRA OR TSRA S OF THERE OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN COASTAL FOG
AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THRU TUE
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S N TO
MID-UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT PASSES JUST N OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH
CAPPING INVERSION ALSO WILL BE PRESENT SO THAT WILL LIMIT
CONVECTION TO PLACES THAT CAN GENERATE FORCING. HOWEVER...WILL SEE
DISTINCT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DEVELOP...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BE
SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY WEAK SFC WINDSHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE...AND THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
ALSO...STRONG SFC BASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES OF 1K-
2K...COMBINED WITH AT LEAST GOOD VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR WILL HELP
GENERATE GOOD UPDRAFTS AND PULSE STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS. ALSO...LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY REGION WILL BEING HELICITY VALUES INT EH
100-200 RANGE...SO CHANCE FOR A COUPLE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AS
WELL...WILL COULD ADD LARGER HAIL TO THE MIX. MAXES WILL RISE TO
NEAR 90 IN SRN NH...AND 80S MOST OTHER PLACES WITH TDS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S.

WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD DIE
OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING AND FOG FORMING
AGAIN. COULD SEE MINS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MON NIGHT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE TRAVERSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY. IT`LL BE A HOT AND HUMID DAY
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. BY THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE WITH NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID DAY...WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS LEAD IMPULSE...WE CARVE OUT
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THAT WILL FEATURE A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS
PROCESSION OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
FRONTS OR TROUGHS. FRIDAY FEATURES SOME WEAK RIDGING...AND ONLY A
MINIMAL CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...WITH CONVECTION TO BE STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD THEN FRIDAY. THE NEXT IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ON TUESDAY...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

WED - SAT...SCT MVFR IN SHRA AND TSRA EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...

THU PM - FRI AM...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 272315
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
715 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
705 PM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND NEEDED JUST MINOR TWEAKS
TO TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AT THIS TIME. DREADED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COMBINED WITH JUICED UP ATMOSPHERE MEANS MORE CONVECTION
AHEAD LATE TONIGHT AS SOME MODELS INDICATING. TRENDS OF WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS
A SHORT WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH UPPER FLOW. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST POPS FOR LATER TONIGHT ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN NH LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WANE BEFORE
SUNSET...BUT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN ZONES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THESE SHOULD
TRACK EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STAY ROUGHLY N AND E OF OF KRKD-KHIE LINE WITH
LITTLE SHRA OR TSRA S OF THERE OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN COASTAL FOG
AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THRU TUE
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S N TO
MID-UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT PASSES JUST N OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH
CAPPING INVERSION ALSO WILL BE PRESENT SO THAT WILL LIMIT
CONVECTION TO PLACES THAT CAN GENERATE FORCING. HOWEVER...WILL SEE
DISTINCT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DEVELOP...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BE
SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY WEAK SFC WINDSHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE...AND THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
ALSO...STRONG SFC BASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES OF 1K-
2K...COMBINED WITH AT LEAST GOOD VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR WILL HELP
GENERATE GOOD UPDRAFTS AND PULSE STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS. ALSO...LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY REGION WILL BEING HELICITY VALUES INT EH
100-200 RANGE...SO CHANCE FOR A COUPLE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AS
WELL...WILL COULD ADD LARGER HAIL TO THE MIX. MAXES WILL RISE TO
NEAR 90 IN SRN NH...AND 80S MOST OTHER PLACES WITH TDS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S.

WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD DIE
OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING AND FOG FORMING
AGAIN. COULD SEE MINS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MON NIGHT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE TRAVERSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY. IT`LL BE A HOT AND HUMID DAY
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. BY THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE WITH NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID DAY...WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS LEAD IMPULSE...WE CARVE OUT
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THAT WILL FEATURE A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS
PROCESSION OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
FRONTS OR TROUGHS. FRIDAY FEATURES SOME WEAK RIDGING...AND ONLY A
MINIMAL CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...WITH CONVECTION TO BE STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD THEN FRIDAY. THE NEXT IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ON TUESDAY...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

WED - SAT...SCT MVFR IN SHRA AND TSRA EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...

THU PM - FRI AM...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 272315
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
715 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
705 PM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND NEEDED JUST MINOR TWEAKS
TO TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AT THIS TIME. DREADED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COMBINED WITH JUICED UP ATMOSPHERE MEANS MORE CONVECTION
AHEAD LATE TONIGHT AS SOME MODELS INDICATING. TRENDS OF WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS
A SHORT WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH UPPER FLOW. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST POPS FOR LATER TONIGHT ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN NH LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WANE BEFORE
SUNSET...BUT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN ZONES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THESE SHOULD
TRACK EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STAY ROUGHLY N AND E OF OF KRKD-KHIE LINE WITH
LITTLE SHRA OR TSRA S OF THERE OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN COASTAL FOG
AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THRU TUE
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S N TO
MID-UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT PASSES JUST N OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH
CAPPING INVERSION ALSO WILL BE PRESENT SO THAT WILL LIMIT
CONVECTION TO PLACES THAT CAN GENERATE FORCING. HOWEVER...WILL SEE
DISTINCT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DEVELOP...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BE
SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY WEAK SFC WINDSHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE...AND THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
ALSO...STRONG SFC BASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES OF 1K-
2K...COMBINED WITH AT LEAST GOOD VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR WILL HELP
GENERATE GOOD UPDRAFTS AND PULSE STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS. ALSO...LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY REGION WILL BEING HELICITY VALUES INT EH
100-200 RANGE...SO CHANCE FOR A COUPLE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AS
WELL...WILL COULD ADD LARGER HAIL TO THE MIX. MAXES WILL RISE TO
NEAR 90 IN SRN NH...AND 80S MOST OTHER PLACES WITH TDS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S.

WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD DIE
OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING AND FOG FORMING
AGAIN. COULD SEE MINS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MON NIGHT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE TRAVERSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY. IT`LL BE A HOT AND HUMID DAY
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. BY THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE WITH NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID DAY...WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS LEAD IMPULSE...WE CARVE OUT
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THAT WILL FEATURE A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS
PROCESSION OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
FRONTS OR TROUGHS. FRIDAY FEATURES SOME WEAK RIDGING...AND ONLY A
MINIMAL CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...WITH CONVECTION TO BE STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD THEN FRIDAY. THE NEXT IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ON TUESDAY...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

WED - SAT...SCT MVFR IN SHRA AND TSRA EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...

THU PM - FRI AM...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 272315
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
715 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
705 PM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND NEEDED JUST MINOR TWEAKS
TO TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AT THIS TIME. DREADED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COMBINED WITH JUICED UP ATMOSPHERE MEANS MORE CONVECTION
AHEAD LATE TONIGHT AS SOME MODELS INDICATING. TRENDS OF WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS
A SHORT WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH UPPER FLOW. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST POPS FOR LATER TONIGHT ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN NH LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WANE BEFORE
SUNSET...BUT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN ZONES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THESE SHOULD
TRACK EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STAY ROUGHLY N AND E OF OF KRKD-KHIE LINE WITH
LITTLE SHRA OR TSRA S OF THERE OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN COASTAL FOG
AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THRU TUE
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S N TO
MID-UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT PASSES JUST N OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH
CAPPING INVERSION ALSO WILL BE PRESENT SO THAT WILL LIMIT
CONVECTION TO PLACES THAT CAN GENERATE FORCING. HOWEVER...WILL SEE
DISTINCT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DEVELOP...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BE
SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY WEAK SFC WINDSHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE...AND THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
ALSO...STRONG SFC BASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES OF 1K-
2K...COMBINED WITH AT LEAST GOOD VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR WILL HELP
GENERATE GOOD UPDRAFTS AND PULSE STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS. ALSO...LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY REGION WILL BEING HELICITY VALUES INT EH
100-200 RANGE...SO CHANCE FOR A COUPLE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AS
WELL...WILL COULD ADD LARGER HAIL TO THE MIX. MAXES WILL RISE TO
NEAR 90 IN SRN NH...AND 80S MOST OTHER PLACES WITH TDS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S.

WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD DIE
OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING AND FOG FORMING
AGAIN. COULD SEE MINS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MON NIGHT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE TRAVERSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY. IT`LL BE A HOT AND HUMID DAY
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. BY THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE WITH NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID DAY...WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS LEAD IMPULSE...WE CARVE OUT
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THAT WILL FEATURE A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS
PROCESSION OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
FRONTS OR TROUGHS. FRIDAY FEATURES SOME WEAK RIDGING...AND ONLY A
MINIMAL CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...WITH CONVECTION TO BE STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD THEN FRIDAY. THE NEXT IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ON TUESDAY...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

WED - SAT...SCT MVFR IN SHRA AND TSRA EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...

THU PM - FRI AM...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE




000
FXUS61 KBOX 272258
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
658 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOT AND HUMID TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY
BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH AS WE LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING GOING LATER INTO THE
EVENING. MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY IN THE
POPS AND TEMPERATURES.  NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY
COME TO AN END LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE DRY.
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE RISK FOR A FEW SPOT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  LOW LEVEL FORCING DOES NOT SEEM AS
STRONG AS LAST NIGHT THOUGH DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH MUCAPES.
THEREFORE...JUST WENT WITH LOW POPS OVERNIGHT AS MUCH OF THE REGION
SHOULD END UP DRY.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  THAT WILL DEPEND
UPON THE AMOUNT OF BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT SOMETHING
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY.  LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 65 AND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
  AND EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN
  MA AND RHODE ISLAND***

TUESDAY...

ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO RESULT
IN A VERY WARM TO EVEN BORDERLINE HOT AFTERNOON.  HIGH TEMPS WILL
TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.  IN ADDITION...IT WILL
BE RATHER HUMID OUTSIDE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND RATHER LIGHT
WINDS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WE CAN NOT RULE
OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  THE MAIN CONCERN THEN TURNS TO A
STRONG PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.  GIVEN VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -10C...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE MLCAPE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG.  THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.  WHILE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...GREATEST
CONCERN IS ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE SHORTWAVE...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT CENTRAL MA.

WILL RUN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
SOME ENHANCED WORDING.  AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK WHICH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
NONETHELESS...STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL LIKELY GENERATE 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND THERE IS AN INVERTED V LOOK TO
THE SOUNDINGS.  THIS MEANS THAT THERE IS THE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE
ISLAND...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT CENTRAL MA.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.  HIGHEST RISK MIGHT BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT THAT SETS
UP ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND AS IT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.  ALSO...SOMETIMES WE END UP WITH SOME TRAINING ON THESE
BOUNDARIES AND THE RISK FOR VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRIPLE-H WEATHER WED/THU WITH HIGHS IN 90S.
* SCATTERED STORMS THU/THU NIGHT.
* DRIER BUT STILL VERY WARM FRI THRU SUN.

OVERALL...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY WEAKENS AS
ITS PUSHED EASTWARD BY AN UPPER LOW TRAVELING ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE.  THIS LOW WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER HUDSON BAY AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE SURFACE
REFLECTION PARKED JUST BELOW IN ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION.  THIS WILL
KEEP SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
BRINGING HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT AS A FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW
PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES MOVES OFFSHORE.  OTHERWISE...A FAIRLY
HUMID NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER HOT...HUMID...AND HAZY DAY EXPECTED AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...HEAT INDICES WILL EASILY
BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100.  MAIN QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
BE WHETHER OR NOT THEY COULD REACH 100 AND HEAT ADVISORIES BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE IN HUDSON
BAY WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING FOR A POTENTIAL
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
DECENT INSTABILITY...0-6KM SHEAR...AND MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL ALLOW A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN FAIRLY
STATIONARY...EXPECT HOT AND SOMEWHAT HUMID WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WHILE DRY
WEATHER PROBABLY DOMINATES MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE...MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE FORMATION OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. TIMING UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LOCALLY
DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
PATCHES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.  MAIN CONCERN IS
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RHODE ISLAND.  WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE
HIT AND MISS...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR EXCEPT IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A BETTER CHANCE OF
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
RESULT IN BRIEFLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.  SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS OUR WATERS
ADJACENT TO EASTERN MA.


OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE MAY BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 272038
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
438 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  A
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

***SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
  MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS
  EVENING***

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE FOCUSED ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE HIT AND MISS
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...HIGHEST RISK FOR
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MA.
THIS IS WHERE THERE IS SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND ACTIVITY IS
MOVING QUITE SLOWLY.  A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD EVENT OR TWO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIAL VERY LOCALIZED 3+ INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL
RATES.  0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE QUITE WEAK...SO OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL LOW. NONETHELESS...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
GIVEN MLCAPES OVER 1500 J/KG.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY
COME TO AN END LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE DRY.
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE RISK FOR A FEW SPOT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  LOW LEVEL FORCING DOES NOT SEEM AS
STRONG AS LAST NIGHT THOUGH DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH MUCAPES.
THEREFORE...JUST WENT WITH LOW POPS OVERNIGHT AS MUCH OF THE REGION
SHOULD END UP DRY.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  THAT WILL DEPEND
UPON THE AMOUNT OF BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT SOMETHING
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY.  LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 65 AND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
  AND EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN
  MA AND RHODE ISLAND***

TUESDAY...

ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO RESULT
IN A VERY WARM TO EVEN BORDERLINE HOT AFTERNOON.  HIGH TEMPS WILL
TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.  IN ADDITION...IT WILL
BE RATHER HUMID OUTSIDE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND RATHER LIGHT
WINDS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WE CAN NOT RULE
OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  THE MAIN CONCERN THEN TURNS TO A
STRONG PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.  GIVEN VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -10C...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE MLCAPE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG.  THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.  WHILE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...GREATEST
CONCERN IS ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE SHORTWAVE...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT CENTRAL MA.

WILL RUN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
SOME ENHANCED WORDING.  AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK WHICH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
NONETHELESS...STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL LIKELY GENERATE 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND THERE IS AN INVERTED V LOOK TO
THE SOUNDINGS.  THIS MEANS THAT THERE IS THE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE
ISLAND...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT CENTRAL MA.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.  HIGHEST RISK MIGHT BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT THAT SETS
UP ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND AS IT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.  ALSO...SOMETIMES WE END UP WITH SOME TRAINING ON THESE
BOUNDARIES AND THE RISK FOR VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRIPLE-H WEATHER WED/THU WITH HIGHS IN 90S.
* SCATTERED STORMS THU/THU NIGHT.
* DRIER BUT STILL VERY WARM FRI THRU SUN.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURES BUILDING RIDGE OVER NORTHEAST WED/THU
WHICH WILL BRING OUR NEXT SHOT OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HOWEVER THIS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS UPPER LOW DIGS ACROSS CANADIAN PRAIRIES
AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY...RESULTING IN
MORE IN WAY OF CYCLONIC FLOW FOR LATER THIS WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS SUMMERLIKE BEYOND THU BUT CHANGE IN UPPER AIR
PATTERN SHOULD BREAK HUMIDITY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY.

WED INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION WED SO AM CONTINUING WITH
DRY FORECAST. NAM SUGGESTION OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT
IS POSSIBLE BUT IS OUTLIER AT THIS POINT. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN
LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM S COAST BUT WITH DEWPOINTS IN MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 HEAT INDICES WILL PROBABLY FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA
/100F FOR 2+ HOURS/.

ANOTHER HOT/HUMID DAY EXPECTED THU BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN WED GIVEN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM GREAT LAKES. DECENT CAPE/0-6KM SHOULD BE PRESENT
ALONG WITH MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS FRONT PROVIDES
FOCUS FOR LIFT.

FRI THROUGH SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHEAST AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
CYCLONIC. THIS WILL BRING SOME RELIEF FROM HEAT/HUMIDITY BUT HIGHS
SHOULD STILL TOP OUT WELL INTO 80S AWAY FROM S COAST. GOING WITH DRY
FORECAST AS ENSEMBLES SHOW FAIRLY LOW PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
EXCEPT LOCALIZED IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  MAIN FOCUS IS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN MA.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING.  WHILE DRY
WEATHER PROBABLY DOMINATES MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE...MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE FORMATION OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG.  TIMING UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LOCALLY
DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
PATCHES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.  MAIN CONCERN IS
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RHODE ISLAND.  WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE
HIT AND MISS...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  MAINLY VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINAL.  HIGHEST RISK IS NORTH OF THE AIRPORT...BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE IN BOSTON AS WELL.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.   MAINLY VFR THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A THUNDERSTORM IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL.  LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR IN SCT
SHRA/TSRA TUESDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A BETTER CHANCE OF
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
RESULT IN BRIEFLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.  SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS OUR WATERS
ADJACENT TO EASTERN MA.


OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA. SCA. MAY SEE LEFTOVER
SHOWERS/STORMS ON WATERS DURING EVENING.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...BUT GUSTS
SHOULD PEAK AROUND 20KT MAINLY ON S COASTAL WATERS. BUILDING S SWELL
MAY REACH 5 FT ON OUTER WATERS S OF ISLANDS. MAY SEE THUNDERSTORMS
LATER IN DAY AND THU EVENING.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 272020
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
420 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  A
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

***SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
  MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS
  EVENING***

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE FOCUSED ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE HIT AND MISS
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...HIGHEST RISK FOR
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MA.
THIS IS WHERE THERE IS SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND ACTIVITY IS
MOVING QUITE SLOWLY. 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE QUITE WEAK...SO
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOW. NONETHELESS...AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING GIVEN MLCAPES OVER 1500 J/KG.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY
COME TO AN END LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE DRY.
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE RISK FOR A FEW SPOT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  LOW LEVEL FORCING DOES NOT SEEM AS
STRONG AS LAST NIGHT THOUGH DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH MUCAPES.
THEREFORE...JUST WENT WITH LOW POPS OVERNIGHT AS MUCH OF THE REGION
SHOULD END UP DRY.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  THAT WILL DEPEND
UPON THE AMOUNT OF BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT SOMETHING
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY.  LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 65 AND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
  AND EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN
  MA AND RHODE ISLAND***

TUESDAY...

ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO RESULT
IN A VERY WARM TO EVEN BORDERLINE HOT AFTERNOON.  HIGH TEMPS WILL
TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.  IN ADDITION...IT WILL
BE RATHER HUMID OUTSIDE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND RATHER LIGHT
WINDS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WE CAN NOT RULE
OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  THE MAIN CONCERN THEN TURNS TO A
STRONG PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.  GIVEN VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -10C...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE MLCAPE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG.  THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.  WHILE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...GREATEST
CONCERN IS ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE SHORTWAVE...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT CENTRAL MA.

WILL RUN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
SOME ENHANCED WORDING.  AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK WHICH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
NONETHELESS...STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL LIKELY GENERATE 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND THERE IS AN INVERTED V LOOK TO
THE SOUNDINGS.  THIS MEANS THAT THERE IS THE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE
ISLAND...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT CENTRAL MA.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.  HIGHEST RISK MIGHT BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT THAT SETS
UP ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND AS IT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.  ALSO...SOMETIMES WE END UP WITH SOME TRAINING ON THESE
BOUNDARIES AND THE RISK FOR VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRIPLE-H WEATHER WED/THU WITH HIGHS IN 90S.
* SCATTERED STORMS THU/THU NIGHT.
* DRIER BUT STILL VERY WARM FRI THRU SUN.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURES BUILDING RIDGE OVER NORTHEAST WED/THU
WHICH WILL BRING OUR NEXT SHOT OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HOWEVER THIS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS UPPER LOW DIGS ACROSS CANADIAN PRAIRIES
AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY...RESULTING IN
MORE IN WAY OF CYCLONIC FLOW FOR LATER THIS WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS SUMMERLIKE BEYOND THU BUT CHANGE IN UPPER AIR
PATTERN SHOULD BREAK HUMIDITY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY.

WED INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION WED SO AM CONTINUING WITH
DRY FORECAST. NAM SUGGESTION OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT
IS POSSIBLE BUT IS OUTLIER AT THIS POINT. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN
LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM S COAST BUT WITH DEWPOINTS IN MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 HEAT INDICES WILL PROBABLY FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA
/100F FOR 2+ HOURS/.

ANOTHER HOT/HUMID DAY EXPECTED THU BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN WED GIVEN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM GREAT LAKES. DECENT CAPE/0-6KM SHOULD BE PRESENT
ALONG WITH MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS FRONT PROVIDES
FOCUS FOR LIFT.

FRI THROUGH SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHEAST AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
CYCLONIC. THIS WILL BRING SOME RELIEF FROM HEAT/HUMIDITY BUT HIGHS
SHOULD STILL TOP OUT WELL INTO 80S AWAY FROM S COAST. GOING WITH DRY
FORECAST AS ENSEMBLES SHOW FAIRLY LOW PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
EXCEPT LOCALIZED IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  MAIN FOCUS IS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN MA.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING.  WHILE DRY
WEATHER PROBABLY DOMINATES MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE...MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE FORMATION OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG.  TIMING UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LOCALLY
DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
PATCHES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.  MAIN CONCERN IS
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RHODE ISLAND.  WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE
HIT AND MISS...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  MAINLY VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINAL.  HIGHEST RISK IS NORTH OF THE AIRPORT...BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE IN BOSTON AS WELL.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.   MAINLY VFR THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A THUNDERSTORM IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL.  LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR IN SCT
SHRA/TSRA TUESDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A BETTER CHANCE OF
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
RESULT IN BRIEFLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.  SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS OUR WATERS
ADJACENT TO EASTERN MA.


OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA. SCA. MAY SEE LEFTOVER
SHOWERS/STORMS ON WATERS DURING EVENING.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...BUT GUSTS
SHOULD PEAK AROUND 20KT MAINLY ON S COASTAL WATERS. BUILDING S SWELL
MAY REACH 5 FT ON OUTER WATERS S OF ISLANDS. MAY SEE THUNDERSTORMS
LATER IN DAY AND THU EVENING.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 272020
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
420 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  A
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

***SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
  MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS
  EVENING***

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE FOCUSED ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE HIT AND MISS
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...HIGHEST RISK FOR
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MA.
THIS IS WHERE THERE IS SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND ACTIVITY IS
MOVING QUITE SLOWLY. 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE QUITE WEAK...SO
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOW. NONETHELESS...AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING GIVEN MLCAPES OVER 1500 J/KG.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY
COME TO AN END LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE DRY.
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE RISK FOR A FEW SPOT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  LOW LEVEL FORCING DOES NOT SEEM AS
STRONG AS LAST NIGHT THOUGH DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH MUCAPES.
THEREFORE...JUST WENT WITH LOW POPS OVERNIGHT AS MUCH OF THE REGION
SHOULD END UP DRY.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  THAT WILL DEPEND
UPON THE AMOUNT OF BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT SOMETHING
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY.  LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 65 AND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
  AND EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN
  MA AND RHODE ISLAND***

TUESDAY...

ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO RESULT
IN A VERY WARM TO EVEN BORDERLINE HOT AFTERNOON.  HIGH TEMPS WILL
TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.  IN ADDITION...IT WILL
BE RATHER HUMID OUTSIDE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND RATHER LIGHT
WINDS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WE CAN NOT RULE
OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  THE MAIN CONCERN THEN TURNS TO A
STRONG PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.  GIVEN VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -10C...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE MLCAPE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG.  THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.  WHILE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...GREATEST
CONCERN IS ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE SHORTWAVE...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT CENTRAL MA.

WILL RUN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
SOME ENHANCED WORDING.  AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK WHICH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
NONETHELESS...STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL LIKELY GENERATE 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND THERE IS AN INVERTED V LOOK TO
THE SOUNDINGS.  THIS MEANS THAT THERE IS THE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE
ISLAND...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT CENTRAL MA.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.  HIGHEST RISK MIGHT BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT THAT SETS
UP ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND AS IT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.  ALSO...SOMETIMES WE END UP WITH SOME TRAINING ON THESE
BOUNDARIES AND THE RISK FOR VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRIPLE-H WEATHER WED/THU WITH HIGHS IN 90S.
* SCATTERED STORMS THU/THU NIGHT.
* DRIER BUT STILL VERY WARM FRI THRU SUN.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURES BUILDING RIDGE OVER NORTHEAST WED/THU
WHICH WILL BRING OUR NEXT SHOT OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HOWEVER THIS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS UPPER LOW DIGS ACROSS CANADIAN PRAIRIES
AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY...RESULTING IN
MORE IN WAY OF CYCLONIC FLOW FOR LATER THIS WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS SUMMERLIKE BEYOND THU BUT CHANGE IN UPPER AIR
PATTERN SHOULD BREAK HUMIDITY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY.

WED INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION WED SO AM CONTINUING WITH
DRY FORECAST. NAM SUGGESTION OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT
IS POSSIBLE BUT IS OUTLIER AT THIS POINT. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN
LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM S COAST BUT WITH DEWPOINTS IN MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 HEAT INDICES WILL PROBABLY FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA
/100F FOR 2+ HOURS/.

ANOTHER HOT/HUMID DAY EXPECTED THU BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN WED GIVEN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM GREAT LAKES. DECENT CAPE/0-6KM SHOULD BE PRESENT
ALONG WITH MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS FRONT PROVIDES
FOCUS FOR LIFT.

FRI THROUGH SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHEAST AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
CYCLONIC. THIS WILL BRING SOME RELIEF FROM HEAT/HUMIDITY BUT HIGHS
SHOULD STILL TOP OUT WELL INTO 80S AWAY FROM S COAST. GOING WITH DRY
FORECAST AS ENSEMBLES SHOW FAIRLY LOW PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
EXCEPT LOCALIZED IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  MAIN FOCUS IS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN MA.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING.  WHILE DRY
WEATHER PROBABLY DOMINATES MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE...MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE FORMATION OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG.  TIMING UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LOCALLY
DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
PATCHES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.  MAIN CONCERN IS
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RHODE ISLAND.  WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE
HIT AND MISS...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  MAINLY VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINAL.  HIGHEST RISK IS NORTH OF THE AIRPORT...BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE IN BOSTON AS WELL.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.   MAINLY VFR THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A THUNDERSTORM IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL.  LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR IN SCT
SHRA/TSRA TUESDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A BETTER CHANCE OF
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
RESULT IN BRIEFLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.  SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS OUR WATERS
ADJACENT TO EASTERN MA.


OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA. SCA. MAY SEE LEFTOVER
SHOWERS/STORMS ON WATERS DURING EVENING.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...BUT GUSTS
SHOULD PEAK AROUND 20KT MAINLY ON S COASTAL WATERS. BUILDING S SWELL
MAY REACH 5 FT ON OUTER WATERS S OF ISLANDS. MAY SEE THUNDERSTORMS
LATER IN DAY AND THU EVENING.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271953
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
353 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN NH LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WANE BEFORE
SUNSET...BUT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN ZONES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THESE SHOULD
TRACK EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STAY ROUGHLY N AND E OF OF KRKD-KHIE LINE WITH
LITTLE SHRA OR TSRA S OF THERE OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN COASTAL FOG
AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THRU TUE
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S N TO
MID-UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT PASSES JUST N OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH
CAPPING INVERSION ALSO WILL BE PRESENT SO THAT WILL LIMIT
CONVECTION TO PLACES THAT CAN GENERATE FORCING. HOWEVER...WILL SEE
DISTINCT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DEVELOP...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BE
SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY WEAK SFC WINDSHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE...AND THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
ALSO...STRONG SFC BASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES OF 1K-
2K...COMBINED WITH AT LEAST GOOD VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR WILL HELP
GENERATE GOOD UPDRAFTS AND PULSE STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS. ALSO...LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY REGION WILL BEING HELICITY VALUES INT EH
100-200 RANGE...SO CHANCE FOR A COUPLE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AS
WELL...WILL COULD ADD LARGER HAIL TO THE MIX. MAXES WILL RISE TO
NEAR 90 IN SRN NH...AND 80S MOST OTHER PLACES WITH TDS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S.

WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD DIE
OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING AND FOG FORMING
AGAIN. COULD SEE MINS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MON NIGHT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE TRAVERSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY. IT`LL BE A HOT AND HUMID DAY
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. BY THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE WITH NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID DAY...WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS LEAD IMPULSE...WE CARVE OUT
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THAT WILL FEATURE A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS
PROCESSION OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
FRONTS OR TROUGHS. FRIDAY FEATURES SOME WEAK RIDGING...AND ONLY A
MINIMAL CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...WITH CONVECTION TO BE STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD THEN FRIDAY. THE NEXT IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ON TUESDAY...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

WED - SAT...SCT MVFR IN SHRA AND TSRA EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...

THU PM - FRI AM...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271953
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
353 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN NH LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WANE BEFORE
SUNSET...BUT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN ZONES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THESE SHOULD
TRACK EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STAY ROUGHLY N AND E OF OF KRKD-KHIE LINE WITH
LITTLE SHRA OR TSRA S OF THERE OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN COASTAL FOG
AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THRU TUE
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S N TO
MID-UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT PASSES JUST N OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH
CAPPING INVERSION ALSO WILL BE PRESENT SO THAT WILL LIMIT
CONVECTION TO PLACES THAT CAN GENERATE FORCING. HOWEVER...WILL SEE
DISTINCT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DEVELOP...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BE
SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY WEAK SFC WINDSHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE...AND THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
ALSO...STRONG SFC BASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES OF 1K-
2K...COMBINED WITH AT LEAST GOOD VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR WILL HELP
GENERATE GOOD UPDRAFTS AND PULSE STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS. ALSO...LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY REGION WILL BEING HELICITY VALUES INT EH
100-200 RANGE...SO CHANCE FOR A COUPLE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AS
WELL...WILL COULD ADD LARGER HAIL TO THE MIX. MAXES WILL RISE TO
NEAR 90 IN SRN NH...AND 80S MOST OTHER PLACES WITH TDS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S.

WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD DIE
OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING AND FOG FORMING
AGAIN. COULD SEE MINS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MON NIGHT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE TRAVERSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY. IT`LL BE A HOT AND HUMID DAY
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. BY THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE WITH NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID DAY...WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS LEAD IMPULSE...WE CARVE OUT
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THAT WILL FEATURE A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS
PROCESSION OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
FRONTS OR TROUGHS. FRIDAY FEATURES SOME WEAK RIDGING...AND ONLY A
MINIMAL CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...WITH CONVECTION TO BE STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD THEN FRIDAY. THE NEXT IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ON TUESDAY...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

WED - SAT...SCT MVFR IN SHRA AND TSRA EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...

THU PM - FRI AM...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 271953
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
353 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN NH LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WANE BEFORE
SUNSET...BUT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN ZONES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THESE SHOULD
TRACK EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STAY ROUGHLY N AND E OF OF KRKD-KHIE LINE WITH
LITTLE SHRA OR TSRA S OF THERE OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN COASTAL FOG
AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THRU TUE
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S N TO
MID-UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT PASSES JUST N OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH
CAPPING INVERSION ALSO WILL BE PRESENT SO THAT WILL LIMIT
CONVECTION TO PLACES THAT CAN GENERATE FORCING. HOWEVER...WILL SEE
DISTINCT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DEVELOP...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BE
SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY WEAK SFC WINDSHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE...AND THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
ALSO...STRONG SFC BASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES OF 1K-
2K...COMBINED WITH AT LEAST GOOD VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR WILL HELP
GENERATE GOOD UPDRAFTS AND PULSE STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS. ALSO...LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY REGION WILL BEING HELICITY VALUES INT EH
100-200 RANGE...SO CHANCE FOR A COUPLE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AS
WELL...WILL COULD ADD LARGER HAIL TO THE MIX. MAXES WILL RISE TO
NEAR 90 IN SRN NH...AND 80S MOST OTHER PLACES WITH TDS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S.

WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD DIE
OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING AND FOG FORMING
AGAIN. COULD SEE MINS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MON NIGHT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE TRAVERSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY. IT`LL BE A HOT AND HUMID DAY
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. BY THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE WITH NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID DAY...WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS LEAD IMPULSE...WE CARVE OUT
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THAT WILL FEATURE A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS
PROCESSION OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
FRONTS OR TROUGHS. FRIDAY FEATURES SOME WEAK RIDGING...AND ONLY A
MINIMAL CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...WITH CONVECTION TO BE STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD THEN FRIDAY. THE NEXT IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ON TUESDAY...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

WED - SAT...SCT MVFR IN SHRA AND TSRA EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...

THU PM - FRI AM...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 271821
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
211 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY.
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW MANY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. HOT AND HUMID TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY
BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND
  LOCALIZED FLOODING SHIFTING INTO INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND***

THE EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STREET FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THIS MORNING HAS
PRETTY MUCH FALLEN APART.  BETTER FORCING AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE
HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THAT REGION. MAIN ACTION WAS NOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS NORTHERN MA WHERE THERE WAS SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE MLCAPES
WERE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG.

THIS IS THE AREA WE ARE MOST CONCERNED ABOUT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL/STREET FLOODING...WITH EVEN AN ISOLATED POCKET OR TWO OF
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.  WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING A CELL JUST SOUTH OF
ASHFIELD MA...WHICH HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH DOPPLER RADAR
ESTIMATING UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN PER HOUR!

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH SOUTHWEST MA AND NORTHERN CT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AS
THIS AREA IS ALSO DESTABILIZING.  TO THE SOUTHEAST OF I-95 A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER SO
NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT.

WHILE LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE OUR MAIN CONCERN... SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE RATHER LIMITED GIVEN VERY WEAK 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT GIVEN DECENT MLCAPES WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -11C WHICH IS
RATHER CHILLY FOR OUR CURRENT AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE
MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT ANTICIPATED. SCATTERED SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT E/SE WITH THE MEAN WIND SLOWLY. WHILE DAYTIME
HEATING CONCLUDES...THERE STILL IS A LOT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE
WITHIN THE LOW-MID LEVELS ALOFT WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE. THREATS OF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CONTINUE AND
WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORM THERE IS A CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING. A MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE MID- TO UPPER-
60S. STORM ACTIVITY MAY DISSIPATE TOWARDS MORNING.

TUESDAY...

CONTINUED MID-LEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW ON WHAT
APPEARS TO BE NNW-SSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHEN EVALUATING THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE. SEEMS TO BE SOME LEVEL OF ENHANCED ASCENT
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC LAYER. COLLOCATED JET STREAK AND DECENT NNW-
SSE UNIDIRECTIONAL BULK SHEAR WITH LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 6C/KM.
SURFACE REFLECTION OF A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY ALONG THE E-COASTLINE
OF NEW ENGLAND APPEARS PLAUSIBLE. WITH A WARM MUGGY AIRMASS STILL
IN PLACE MAY BE DEALING WITH SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
E- HALF OF NEW ENGLAND...POTENTIALLY LINE-CONVECTION ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE.

CONSIDERING SHEAR / INSTABILITY / INVERTED-V PROFILES WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY-LAYER COULD BE LOOKING AT A MULTI-THREAT OUTCOME WITH ANY
CONVECTION AS IT WOULD APPEAR. GOING TO HAVE TO TAKE A LOOK AT
THIS MORE CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 24-HOURS. COLLABORATING WITH OTHER
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES...WILL GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING OF HEAVY
RAIN / GUSTY WINDS / SMALL HAIL. GOOD DEEP- LAYER FORCING AND NEAR
A LOBE OF H5 COLDER AIR DROPPING S WITH THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX.

WITH ANTICIPATED WEATHER / CLOUD COVER PERHAPS SOME ISSUES WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES. MAYBE AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE E-COAST IF THE ZONE OF
CONVERGENCE HOLDS OVER THE E-HALF OF NEW ENGLAND. WILL LEAN COOLER
IN THIS AREA BUT GO INTO THE UPPER-80S TO THE W.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRIPLE-H WEATHER WED/THU WITH HIGHS IN 90S.
* SCATTERED STORMS THU/THU NIGHT.
* DRIER BUT STILL VERY WARM FRI THRU SUN.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURES BUILDING RIDGE OVER NORTHEAST WED/THU
WHICH WILL BRING OUR NEXT SHOT OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HOWEVER THIS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS UPPER LOW DIGS ACROSS CANADIAN PRAIRIES
AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY...RESULTING IN
MORE IN WAY OF CYCLONIC FLOW FOR LATER THIS WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS SUMMERLIKE BEYOND THU BUT CHANGE IN UPPER AIR
PATTERN SHOULD BREAK HUMIDITY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY.

WED INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION WED SO AM CONTINUING WITH
DRY FORECAST. NAM SUGGESTION OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT
IS POSSIBLE BUT IS OUTLIER AT THIS POINT. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN
LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM S COAST BUT WITH DEWPOINTS IN MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 HEAT INDICES WILL PROBABLY FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA
/100F FOR 2+ HOURS/.

ANOTHER HOT/HUMID DAY EXPECTED THU BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN WED GIVEN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM GREAT LAKES. DECENT CAPE/0-6KM SHOULD BE PRESENT
ALONG WITH MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS FRONT PROVIDES
FOCUS FOR LIFT.

FRI THROUGH SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHEAST AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
CYCLONIC. THIS WILL BRING SOME RELIEF FROM HEAT/HUMIDITY BUT HIGHS
SHOULD STILL TOP OUT WELL INTO 80S AWAY FROM S COAST. GOING WITH DRY
FORECAST AS ENSEMBLES SHOW FAIRLY LOW PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...

THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR EXCEPT
LOCALIZED IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  MAIN FOCUS IS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN MA.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING.  WHILE DRY
WEATHER PROBABLY DOMINATES MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...A NARROW BAND
OR TWO OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME.  OTHERWISE...MAIN
CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE FORMATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.  TIMING
UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
PATCHES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...MAIN
CONCERN IS SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE
HIT AND MISS...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  MAINLY VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINAL.  HIGHEST RISK IS NORTH OF THE AIRPORT...BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE IN BOSTON AS WELL.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.   MAINLY VFR THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A THUNDERSTORM IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL.  LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR IN SCT
SHRA/TSRA TUESDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A BETTER CHANCE OF A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
RESULT IN BRIEFLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.  SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA. SCA. MAY SEE LEFTOVER
SHOWERS/STORMS ON WATERS DURING EVENING.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...BUT GUSTS
SHOULD PEAK AROUND 20KT MAINLY ON S COASTAL WATERS. BUILDING S SWELL
MAY REACH 5 FT ON OUTER WATERS S OF ISLANDS. MAY SEE THUNDERSTORMS
LATER IN DAY AND THU EVENING.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...FRANK/JWD
MARINE...FRANK/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271821
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
211 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY.
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW MANY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. HOT AND HUMID TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY
BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND
  LOCALIZED FLOODING SHIFTING INTO INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND***

THE EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STREET FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THIS MORNING HAS
PRETTY MUCH FALLEN APART.  BETTER FORCING AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE
HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THAT REGION. MAIN ACTION WAS NOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS NORTHERN MA WHERE THERE WAS SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE MLCAPES
WERE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG.

THIS IS THE AREA WE ARE MOST CONCERNED ABOUT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL/STREET FLOODING...WITH EVEN AN ISOLATED POCKET OR TWO OF
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.  WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING A CELL JUST SOUTH OF
ASHFIELD MA...WHICH HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH DOPPLER RADAR
ESTIMATING UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN PER HOUR!

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH SOUTHWEST MA AND NORTHERN CT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AS
THIS AREA IS ALSO DESTABILIZING.  TO THE SOUTHEAST OF I-95 A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER SO
NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT.

WHILE LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE OUR MAIN CONCERN... SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE RATHER LIMITED GIVEN VERY WEAK 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT GIVEN DECENT MLCAPES WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -11C WHICH IS
RATHER CHILLY FOR OUR CURRENT AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE
MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT ANTICIPATED. SCATTERED SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT E/SE WITH THE MEAN WIND SLOWLY. WHILE DAYTIME
HEATING CONCLUDES...THERE STILL IS A LOT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE
WITHIN THE LOW-MID LEVELS ALOFT WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE. THREATS OF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CONTINUE AND
WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORM THERE IS A CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING. A MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE MID- TO UPPER-
60S. STORM ACTIVITY MAY DISSIPATE TOWARDS MORNING.

TUESDAY...

CONTINUED MID-LEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW ON WHAT
APPEARS TO BE NNW-SSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHEN EVALUATING THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE. SEEMS TO BE SOME LEVEL OF ENHANCED ASCENT
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC LAYER. COLLOCATED JET STREAK AND DECENT NNW-
SSE UNIDIRECTIONAL BULK SHEAR WITH LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 6C/KM.
SURFACE REFLECTION OF A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY ALONG THE E-COASTLINE
OF NEW ENGLAND APPEARS PLAUSIBLE. WITH A WARM MUGGY AIRMASS STILL
IN PLACE MAY BE DEALING WITH SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
E- HALF OF NEW ENGLAND...POTENTIALLY LINE-CONVECTION ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE.

CONSIDERING SHEAR / INSTABILITY / INVERTED-V PROFILES WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY-LAYER COULD BE LOOKING AT A MULTI-THREAT OUTCOME WITH ANY
CONVECTION AS IT WOULD APPEAR. GOING TO HAVE TO TAKE A LOOK AT
THIS MORE CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 24-HOURS. COLLABORATING WITH OTHER
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES...WILL GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING OF HEAVY
RAIN / GUSTY WINDS / SMALL HAIL. GOOD DEEP- LAYER FORCING AND NEAR
A LOBE OF H5 COLDER AIR DROPPING S WITH THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX.

WITH ANTICIPATED WEATHER / CLOUD COVER PERHAPS SOME ISSUES WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES. MAYBE AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE E-COAST IF THE ZONE OF
CONVERGENCE HOLDS OVER THE E-HALF OF NEW ENGLAND. WILL LEAN COOLER
IN THIS AREA BUT GO INTO THE UPPER-80S TO THE W.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRIPLE-H WEATHER WED/THU WITH HIGHS IN 90S.
* SCATTERED STORMS THU/THU NIGHT.
* DRIER BUT STILL VERY WARM FRI THRU SUN.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURES BUILDING RIDGE OVER NORTHEAST WED/THU
WHICH WILL BRING OUR NEXT SHOT OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HOWEVER THIS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS UPPER LOW DIGS ACROSS CANADIAN PRAIRIES
AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY...RESULTING IN
MORE IN WAY OF CYCLONIC FLOW FOR LATER THIS WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS SUMMERLIKE BEYOND THU BUT CHANGE IN UPPER AIR
PATTERN SHOULD BREAK HUMIDITY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY.

WED INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION WED SO AM CONTINUING WITH
DRY FORECAST. NAM SUGGESTION OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT
IS POSSIBLE BUT IS OUTLIER AT THIS POINT. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN
LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM S COAST BUT WITH DEWPOINTS IN MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 HEAT INDICES WILL PROBABLY FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA
/100F FOR 2+ HOURS/.

ANOTHER HOT/HUMID DAY EXPECTED THU BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN WED GIVEN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM GREAT LAKES. DECENT CAPE/0-6KM SHOULD BE PRESENT
ALONG WITH MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS FRONT PROVIDES
FOCUS FOR LIFT.

FRI THROUGH SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHEAST AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
CYCLONIC. THIS WILL BRING SOME RELIEF FROM HEAT/HUMIDITY BUT HIGHS
SHOULD STILL TOP OUT WELL INTO 80S AWAY FROM S COAST. GOING WITH DRY
FORECAST AS ENSEMBLES SHOW FAIRLY LOW PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...

THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR EXCEPT
LOCALIZED IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  MAIN FOCUS IS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN MA.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING.  WHILE DRY
WEATHER PROBABLY DOMINATES MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...A NARROW BAND
OR TWO OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME.  OTHERWISE...MAIN
CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE FORMATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.  TIMING
UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
PATCHES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...MAIN
CONCERN IS SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE
HIT AND MISS...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  MAINLY VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINAL.  HIGHEST RISK IS NORTH OF THE AIRPORT...BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE IN BOSTON AS WELL.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.   MAINLY VFR THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A THUNDERSTORM IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL.  LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR IN SCT
SHRA/TSRA TUESDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A BETTER CHANCE OF A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
RESULT IN BRIEFLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.  SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA. SCA. MAY SEE LEFTOVER
SHOWERS/STORMS ON WATERS DURING EVENING.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...BUT GUSTS
SHOULD PEAK AROUND 20KT MAINLY ON S COASTAL WATERS. BUILDING S SWELL
MAY REACH 5 FT ON OUTER WATERS S OF ISLANDS. MAY SEE THUNDERSTORMS
LATER IN DAY AND THU EVENING.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...FRANK/JWD
MARINE...FRANK/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 271754
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
154 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY.
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW MANY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. HOT AND HUMID TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY
BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
  NORTHWARD MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY
  HEAVY RAINFALL/STREET FLOODING THE MAIN CONCERN***

930 AM UPDATE...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS RHODE ISLAND
AND INTO SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS.  ACTIVITY WAS MOVING QUITE
SLOWLY PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND AT THE VERY LEAST SOME
POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING.  WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THIS REGION TO SEE IF AN AREA OR TWO RECEIVES MORE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...REQUIRING A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD WARNING.

OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.  THERE ARE AT LEAST PEAKS OF SUN IN THIS
REGION AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MLCAPE VALUES FROM AROUND 1000 TO
1500 J/KG TO DEVELOP.  IN ADDITION...WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND A
RELATIVELY UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL ASSIST IN SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  ITS REALLY TOUGH TO PIN AN AREA THAT HAS
A HIGHER RISK OF SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.  HOWEVER...SEA
BREEZE FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA WHICH MAY
PROVIDE A LITTLE BETTER FOCUS.  ALSO MAYBE SOME TERRAIN INFLUENCES
WILL AID IN THE PROCESS.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR VERY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/STREET FLOODING
WITH ANY STORMS...SINCE THEY WILL BE MOVING QUITE SLOW.  WE ALSO CAN
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD EVENT OR TWO IF ACTIVITY CAN
TRAIN OVER A PARTICULAR LOCATIONS.  SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
RATHER LIMITED GIVEN VERY WEAK 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR.  HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
DECENT MLCAPES WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -11C WHICH IS RATHER CHILLY
FOR OUR CURRENT AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE
MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT ANTICIPATED. SCATTERED SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT E/SE WITH THE MEAN WIND SLOWLY. WHILE DAYTIME
HEATING CONCLUDES...THERE STILL IS A LOT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE
WITHIN THE LOW-MID LEVELS ALOFT WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE. THREATS OF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CONTINUE AND
WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORM THERE IS A CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING. A MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE MID- TO UPPER-
60S. STORM ACTIVITY MAY DISSIPATE TOWARDS MORNING.

TUESDAY...

CONTINUED MID-LEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW ON WHAT
APPEARS TO BE NNW-SSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHEN EVALUATING THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE. SEEMS TO BE SOME LEVEL OF ENHANCED ASCENT
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC LAYER. COLLOCATED JET STREAK AND DECENT NNW-
SSE UNIDIRECTIONAL BULK SHEAR WITH LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 6C/KM.
SURFACE REFLECTION OF A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY ALONG THE E-COASTLINE
OF NEW ENGLAND APPEARS PLAUSIBLE. WITH A WARM MUGGY AIRMASS STILL
IN PLACE MAY BE DEALING WITH SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
E- HALF OF NEW ENGLAND...POTENTIALLY LINE-CONVECTION ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE.

CONSIDERING SHEAR / INSTABILITY / INVERTED-V PROFILES WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY-LAYER COULD BE LOOKING AT A MULTI-THREAT OUTCOME WITH ANY
CONVECTION AS IT WOULD APPEAR. GOING TO HAVE TO TAKE A LOOK AT
THIS MORE CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 24-HOURS. COLLABORATING WITH OTHER
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES...WILL GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING OF HEAVY
RAIN / GUSTY WINDS / SMALL HAIL. GOOD DEEP- LAYER FORCING AND NEAR
A LOBE OF H5 COLDER AIR DROPPING S WITH THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX.

WITH ANTICIPATED WEATHER / CLOUD COVER PERHAPS SOME ISSUES WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES. MAYBE AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE E-COAST IF THE ZONE OF
CONVERGENCE HOLDS OVER THE E-HALF OF NEW ENGLAND. WILL LEAN COOLER
IN THIS AREA BUT GO INTO THE UPPER-80S TO THE W.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRIPLE-H WEATHER WED/THU WITH HIGHS IN 90S.
* SCATTERED STORMS THU/THU NIGHT.
* DRIER BUT STILL VERY WARM FRI THRU MON.

OVERALL...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY WEAKENS AS
ITS PUSHED EASTWARD BY AN UPPER LOW TRAVELING ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE.  THIS LOW WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER HUDSON BAY AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE SURFACE
REFLECTION PARKED JUST BELOW IN ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION.  THIS WILL
KEEP SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
BRINGING HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT AS A FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW
PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES MOVES OFFSHORE.  OTHERWISE...A FAIRLY
HUMID NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER HOT...HUMID...AND HAZY DAY EXPECTED AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...HEAT INDICES WILL EASILY
BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100.  MAIN QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
BE WHETHER OR NOT THEY COULD REACH 100 AND HEAT ADVISORIES BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE IN HUDSON
BAY WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING FOR A POTENTIAL
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
DECENT INSTABILITY...0-6KM SHEAR...AND MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL ALLOW A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN FAIRLY
STATIONARY...EXPECT HOT AND SOMEWHAT HUMID WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS NEAR S COAST WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL
SLOWLY WORK N INTO MA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD
BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CIGS 040-060
TO DOMINATE TODAY WITH LIGHT S/SW WINDS GIVING WAY TO SEA BREEZES
NEAR COAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS PERSIST TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS.

TUESDAY...LOW-END VFR. FOCUS OVER E-HALF OF S NEW ENGLAND WHERE
RENEWED CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA. THREATS OF SMALL HAIL / WINDS / +RA
/ LIGHTNING ALL ANTICIPATED. ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED ALONG E-COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING AND VEERS
TO S THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS ROUGHLY 19Z-22Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MAINLY VFR. BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS IS ROUGHLY 20Z-22Z BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR EXCEPT IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST OVER ALL OF THE S NEW
ENGLAND REGION WHICH WILL AT TIMES IMPACT THE WATERS. ANTICIPATE
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH ANY STORMS. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...THOUGH
THINKING BELOW GALE FORCE. OTHERWISE SEAS REMAINING BELOW 4-FEET
AS WINDS PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN OUT OF THE S.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE MAY BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271754
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
154 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY.
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW MANY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. HOT AND HUMID TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY
BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
  NORTHWARD MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY
  HEAVY RAINFALL/STREET FLOODING THE MAIN CONCERN***

930 AM UPDATE...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS RHODE ISLAND
AND INTO SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS.  ACTIVITY WAS MOVING QUITE
SLOWLY PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND AT THE VERY LEAST SOME
POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING.  WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THIS REGION TO SEE IF AN AREA OR TWO RECEIVES MORE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...REQUIRING A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD WARNING.

OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.  THERE ARE AT LEAST PEAKS OF SUN IN THIS
REGION AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MLCAPE VALUES FROM AROUND 1000 TO
1500 J/KG TO DEVELOP.  IN ADDITION...WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND A
RELATIVELY UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL ASSIST IN SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  ITS REALLY TOUGH TO PIN AN AREA THAT HAS
A HIGHER RISK OF SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.  HOWEVER...SEA
BREEZE FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA WHICH MAY
PROVIDE A LITTLE BETTER FOCUS.  ALSO MAYBE SOME TERRAIN INFLUENCES
WILL AID IN THE PROCESS.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR VERY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/STREET FLOODING
WITH ANY STORMS...SINCE THEY WILL BE MOVING QUITE SLOW.  WE ALSO CAN
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD EVENT OR TWO IF ACTIVITY CAN
TRAIN OVER A PARTICULAR LOCATIONS.  SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
RATHER LIMITED GIVEN VERY WEAK 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR.  HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
DECENT MLCAPES WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -11C WHICH IS RATHER CHILLY
FOR OUR CURRENT AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE
MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT ANTICIPATED. SCATTERED SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT E/SE WITH THE MEAN WIND SLOWLY. WHILE DAYTIME
HEATING CONCLUDES...THERE STILL IS A LOT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE
WITHIN THE LOW-MID LEVELS ALOFT WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE. THREATS OF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CONTINUE AND
WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORM THERE IS A CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING. A MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE MID- TO UPPER-
60S. STORM ACTIVITY MAY DISSIPATE TOWARDS MORNING.

TUESDAY...

CONTINUED MID-LEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW ON WHAT
APPEARS TO BE NNW-SSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHEN EVALUATING THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE. SEEMS TO BE SOME LEVEL OF ENHANCED ASCENT
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC LAYER. COLLOCATED JET STREAK AND DECENT NNW-
SSE UNIDIRECTIONAL BULK SHEAR WITH LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 6C/KM.
SURFACE REFLECTION OF A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY ALONG THE E-COASTLINE
OF NEW ENGLAND APPEARS PLAUSIBLE. WITH A WARM MUGGY AIRMASS STILL
IN PLACE MAY BE DEALING WITH SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
E- HALF OF NEW ENGLAND...POTENTIALLY LINE-CONVECTION ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE.

CONSIDERING SHEAR / INSTABILITY / INVERTED-V PROFILES WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY-LAYER COULD BE LOOKING AT A MULTI-THREAT OUTCOME WITH ANY
CONVECTION AS IT WOULD APPEAR. GOING TO HAVE TO TAKE A LOOK AT
THIS MORE CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 24-HOURS. COLLABORATING WITH OTHER
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES...WILL GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING OF HEAVY
RAIN / GUSTY WINDS / SMALL HAIL. GOOD DEEP- LAYER FORCING AND NEAR
A LOBE OF H5 COLDER AIR DROPPING S WITH THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX.

WITH ANTICIPATED WEATHER / CLOUD COVER PERHAPS SOME ISSUES WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES. MAYBE AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE E-COAST IF THE ZONE OF
CONVERGENCE HOLDS OVER THE E-HALF OF NEW ENGLAND. WILL LEAN COOLER
IN THIS AREA BUT GO INTO THE UPPER-80S TO THE W.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRIPLE-H WEATHER WED/THU WITH HIGHS IN 90S.
* SCATTERED STORMS THU/THU NIGHT.
* DRIER BUT STILL VERY WARM FRI THRU MON.

OVERALL...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY WEAKENS AS
ITS PUSHED EASTWARD BY AN UPPER LOW TRAVELING ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE.  THIS LOW WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER HUDSON BAY AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE SURFACE
REFLECTION PARKED JUST BELOW IN ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION.  THIS WILL
KEEP SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
BRINGING HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT AS A FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW
PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES MOVES OFFSHORE.  OTHERWISE...A FAIRLY
HUMID NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER HOT...HUMID...AND HAZY DAY EXPECTED AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...HEAT INDICES WILL EASILY
BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100.  MAIN QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
BE WHETHER OR NOT THEY COULD REACH 100 AND HEAT ADVISORIES BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE IN HUDSON
BAY WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING FOR A POTENTIAL
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
DECENT INSTABILITY...0-6KM SHEAR...AND MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL ALLOW A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN FAIRLY
STATIONARY...EXPECT HOT AND SOMEWHAT HUMID WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS NEAR S COAST WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL
SLOWLY WORK N INTO MA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD
BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CIGS 040-060
TO DOMINATE TODAY WITH LIGHT S/SW WINDS GIVING WAY TO SEA BREEZES
NEAR COAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS PERSIST TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS.

TUESDAY...LOW-END VFR. FOCUS OVER E-HALF OF S NEW ENGLAND WHERE
RENEWED CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA. THREATS OF SMALL HAIL / WINDS / +RA
/ LIGHTNING ALL ANTICIPATED. ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED ALONG E-COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING AND VEERS
TO S THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS ROUGHLY 19Z-22Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MAINLY VFR. BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS IS ROUGHLY 20Z-22Z BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR EXCEPT IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST OVER ALL OF THE S NEW
ENGLAND REGION WHICH WILL AT TIMES IMPACT THE WATERS. ANTICIPATE
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH ANY STORMS. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...THOUGH
THINKING BELOW GALE FORCE. OTHERWISE SEAS REMAINING BELOW 4-FEET
AS WINDS PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN OUT OF THE S.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE MAY BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 271754
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
154 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY.
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW MANY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. HOT AND HUMID TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY
BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
  NORTHWARD MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY
  HEAVY RAINFALL/STREET FLOODING THE MAIN CONCERN***

930 AM UPDATE...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS RHODE ISLAND
AND INTO SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS.  ACTIVITY WAS MOVING QUITE
SLOWLY PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND AT THE VERY LEAST SOME
POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING.  WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THIS REGION TO SEE IF AN AREA OR TWO RECEIVES MORE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...REQUIRING A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD WARNING.

OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.  THERE ARE AT LEAST PEAKS OF SUN IN THIS
REGION AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MLCAPE VALUES FROM AROUND 1000 TO
1500 J/KG TO DEVELOP.  IN ADDITION...WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND A
RELATIVELY UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL ASSIST IN SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  ITS REALLY TOUGH TO PIN AN AREA THAT HAS
A HIGHER RISK OF SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.  HOWEVER...SEA
BREEZE FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA WHICH MAY
PROVIDE A LITTLE BETTER FOCUS.  ALSO MAYBE SOME TERRAIN INFLUENCES
WILL AID IN THE PROCESS.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR VERY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/STREET FLOODING
WITH ANY STORMS...SINCE THEY WILL BE MOVING QUITE SLOW.  WE ALSO CAN
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD EVENT OR TWO IF ACTIVITY CAN
TRAIN OVER A PARTICULAR LOCATIONS.  SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
RATHER LIMITED GIVEN VERY WEAK 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR.  HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
DECENT MLCAPES WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -11C WHICH IS RATHER CHILLY
FOR OUR CURRENT AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE
MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT ANTICIPATED. SCATTERED SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT E/SE WITH THE MEAN WIND SLOWLY. WHILE DAYTIME
HEATING CONCLUDES...THERE STILL IS A LOT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE
WITHIN THE LOW-MID LEVELS ALOFT WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE. THREATS OF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CONTINUE AND
WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORM THERE IS A CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING. A MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE MID- TO UPPER-
60S. STORM ACTIVITY MAY DISSIPATE TOWARDS MORNING.

TUESDAY...

CONTINUED MID-LEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW ON WHAT
APPEARS TO BE NNW-SSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHEN EVALUATING THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE. SEEMS TO BE SOME LEVEL OF ENHANCED ASCENT
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC LAYER. COLLOCATED JET STREAK AND DECENT NNW-
SSE UNIDIRECTIONAL BULK SHEAR WITH LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 6C/KM.
SURFACE REFLECTION OF A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY ALONG THE E-COASTLINE
OF NEW ENGLAND APPEARS PLAUSIBLE. WITH A WARM MUGGY AIRMASS STILL
IN PLACE MAY BE DEALING WITH SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
E- HALF OF NEW ENGLAND...POTENTIALLY LINE-CONVECTION ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE.

CONSIDERING SHEAR / INSTABILITY / INVERTED-V PROFILES WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY-LAYER COULD BE LOOKING AT A MULTI-THREAT OUTCOME WITH ANY
CONVECTION AS IT WOULD APPEAR. GOING TO HAVE TO TAKE A LOOK AT
THIS MORE CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 24-HOURS. COLLABORATING WITH OTHER
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES...WILL GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING OF HEAVY
RAIN / GUSTY WINDS / SMALL HAIL. GOOD DEEP- LAYER FORCING AND NEAR
A LOBE OF H5 COLDER AIR DROPPING S WITH THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX.

WITH ANTICIPATED WEATHER / CLOUD COVER PERHAPS SOME ISSUES WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES. MAYBE AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE E-COAST IF THE ZONE OF
CONVERGENCE HOLDS OVER THE E-HALF OF NEW ENGLAND. WILL LEAN COOLER
IN THIS AREA BUT GO INTO THE UPPER-80S TO THE W.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRIPLE-H WEATHER WED/THU WITH HIGHS IN 90S.
* SCATTERED STORMS THU/THU NIGHT.
* DRIER BUT STILL VERY WARM FRI THRU MON.

OVERALL...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY WEAKENS AS
ITS PUSHED EASTWARD BY AN UPPER LOW TRAVELING ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE.  THIS LOW WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER HUDSON BAY AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE SURFACE
REFLECTION PARKED JUST BELOW IN ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION.  THIS WILL
KEEP SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
BRINGING HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT AS A FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW
PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES MOVES OFFSHORE.  OTHERWISE...A FAIRLY
HUMID NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER HOT...HUMID...AND HAZY DAY EXPECTED AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...HEAT INDICES WILL EASILY
BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100.  MAIN QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
BE WHETHER OR NOT THEY COULD REACH 100 AND HEAT ADVISORIES BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE IN HUDSON
BAY WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING FOR A POTENTIAL
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
DECENT INSTABILITY...0-6KM SHEAR...AND MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL ALLOW A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN FAIRLY
STATIONARY...EXPECT HOT AND SOMEWHAT HUMID WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS NEAR S COAST WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL
SLOWLY WORK N INTO MA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD
BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CIGS 040-060
TO DOMINATE TODAY WITH LIGHT S/SW WINDS GIVING WAY TO SEA BREEZES
NEAR COAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS PERSIST TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS.

TUESDAY...LOW-END VFR. FOCUS OVER E-HALF OF S NEW ENGLAND WHERE
RENEWED CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA. THREATS OF SMALL HAIL / WINDS / +RA
/ LIGHTNING ALL ANTICIPATED. ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED ALONG E-COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING AND VEERS
TO S THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS ROUGHLY 19Z-22Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MAINLY VFR. BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS IS ROUGHLY 20Z-22Z BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR EXCEPT IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST OVER ALL OF THE S NEW
ENGLAND REGION WHICH WILL AT TIMES IMPACT THE WATERS. ANTICIPATE
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH ANY STORMS. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...THOUGH
THINKING BELOW GALE FORCE. OTHERWISE SEAS REMAINING BELOW 4-FEET
AS WINDS PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN OUT OF THE S.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE MAY BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271754
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
154 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY.
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW MANY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. HOT AND HUMID TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY
BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
  NORTHWARD MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY
  HEAVY RAINFALL/STREET FLOODING THE MAIN CONCERN***

930 AM UPDATE...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS RHODE ISLAND
AND INTO SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS.  ACTIVITY WAS MOVING QUITE
SLOWLY PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND AT THE VERY LEAST SOME
POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING.  WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THIS REGION TO SEE IF AN AREA OR TWO RECEIVES MORE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...REQUIRING A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD WARNING.

OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.  THERE ARE AT LEAST PEAKS OF SUN IN THIS
REGION AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MLCAPE VALUES FROM AROUND 1000 TO
1500 J/KG TO DEVELOP.  IN ADDITION...WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND A
RELATIVELY UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL ASSIST IN SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  ITS REALLY TOUGH TO PIN AN AREA THAT HAS
A HIGHER RISK OF SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.  HOWEVER...SEA
BREEZE FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA WHICH MAY
PROVIDE A LITTLE BETTER FOCUS.  ALSO MAYBE SOME TERRAIN INFLUENCES
WILL AID IN THE PROCESS.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR VERY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/STREET FLOODING
WITH ANY STORMS...SINCE THEY WILL BE MOVING QUITE SLOW.  WE ALSO CAN
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD EVENT OR TWO IF ACTIVITY CAN
TRAIN OVER A PARTICULAR LOCATIONS.  SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
RATHER LIMITED GIVEN VERY WEAK 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR.  HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
DECENT MLCAPES WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -11C WHICH IS RATHER CHILLY
FOR OUR CURRENT AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE
MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT ANTICIPATED. SCATTERED SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT E/SE WITH THE MEAN WIND SLOWLY. WHILE DAYTIME
HEATING CONCLUDES...THERE STILL IS A LOT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE
WITHIN THE LOW-MID LEVELS ALOFT WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE. THREATS OF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CONTINUE AND
WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORM THERE IS A CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING. A MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE MID- TO UPPER-
60S. STORM ACTIVITY MAY DISSIPATE TOWARDS MORNING.

TUESDAY...

CONTINUED MID-LEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW ON WHAT
APPEARS TO BE NNW-SSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHEN EVALUATING THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE. SEEMS TO BE SOME LEVEL OF ENHANCED ASCENT
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC LAYER. COLLOCATED JET STREAK AND DECENT NNW-
SSE UNIDIRECTIONAL BULK SHEAR WITH LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 6C/KM.
SURFACE REFLECTION OF A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY ALONG THE E-COASTLINE
OF NEW ENGLAND APPEARS PLAUSIBLE. WITH A WARM MUGGY AIRMASS STILL
IN PLACE MAY BE DEALING WITH SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
E- HALF OF NEW ENGLAND...POTENTIALLY LINE-CONVECTION ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE.

CONSIDERING SHEAR / INSTABILITY / INVERTED-V PROFILES WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY-LAYER COULD BE LOOKING AT A MULTI-THREAT OUTCOME WITH ANY
CONVECTION AS IT WOULD APPEAR. GOING TO HAVE TO TAKE A LOOK AT
THIS MORE CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 24-HOURS. COLLABORATING WITH OTHER
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES...WILL GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING OF HEAVY
RAIN / GUSTY WINDS / SMALL HAIL. GOOD DEEP- LAYER FORCING AND NEAR
A LOBE OF H5 COLDER AIR DROPPING S WITH THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX.

WITH ANTICIPATED WEATHER / CLOUD COVER PERHAPS SOME ISSUES WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES. MAYBE AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE E-COAST IF THE ZONE OF
CONVERGENCE HOLDS OVER THE E-HALF OF NEW ENGLAND. WILL LEAN COOLER
IN THIS AREA BUT GO INTO THE UPPER-80S TO THE W.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRIPLE-H WEATHER WED/THU WITH HIGHS IN 90S.
* SCATTERED STORMS THU/THU NIGHT.
* DRIER BUT STILL VERY WARM FRI THRU MON.

OVERALL...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY WEAKENS AS
ITS PUSHED EASTWARD BY AN UPPER LOW TRAVELING ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE.  THIS LOW WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER HUDSON BAY AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE SURFACE
REFLECTION PARKED JUST BELOW IN ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION.  THIS WILL
KEEP SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
BRINGING HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT AS A FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW
PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES MOVES OFFSHORE.  OTHERWISE...A FAIRLY
HUMID NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER HOT...HUMID...AND HAZY DAY EXPECTED AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...HEAT INDICES WILL EASILY
BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100.  MAIN QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
BE WHETHER OR NOT THEY COULD REACH 100 AND HEAT ADVISORIES BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE IN HUDSON
BAY WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING FOR A POTENTIAL
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
DECENT INSTABILITY...0-6KM SHEAR...AND MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL ALLOW A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN FAIRLY
STATIONARY...EXPECT HOT AND SOMEWHAT HUMID WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS NEAR S COAST WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL
SLOWLY WORK N INTO MA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD
BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CIGS 040-060
TO DOMINATE TODAY WITH LIGHT S/SW WINDS GIVING WAY TO SEA BREEZES
NEAR COAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS PERSIST TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS.

TUESDAY...LOW-END VFR. FOCUS OVER E-HALF OF S NEW ENGLAND WHERE
RENEWED CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA. THREATS OF SMALL HAIL / WINDS / +RA
/ LIGHTNING ALL ANTICIPATED. ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED ALONG E-COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING AND VEERS
TO S THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS ROUGHLY 19Z-22Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MAINLY VFR. BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS IS ROUGHLY 20Z-22Z BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR EXCEPT IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST OVER ALL OF THE S NEW
ENGLAND REGION WHICH WILL AT TIMES IMPACT THE WATERS. ANTICIPATE
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH ANY STORMS. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...THOUGH
THINKING BELOW GALE FORCE. OTHERWISE SEAS REMAINING BELOW 4-FEET
AS WINDS PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN OUT OF THE S.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE MAY BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KGYX 271617
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1217 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1215 PM...MESOSCALE MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO FIRE UP CONVECTION OVER
THE SRN TIER OF COUNTIES IN NH THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE LEFTOVER
BOUNDARY FROM YESTERDAY IS PROBABLY LINGERING. THEREFORE, HAVE
HOT THIS A LITTLE HARDER ON POPS/QPF THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO..MAY SEE
SOME BACKBUILDING ALONG THAT BOUNDARY SO ADDED HEAVY RAIN HERE.
ALSO WATCHING CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE MONTREAL AREA
NOW...WHICH MAY WORK INTO NRN ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THIS HAS ACCESS TO SOME BETTER DYNAMICS, AND COULD PRODUCE SOME
SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. ELSEWHERE...AWAY FROM THE COAST COULD
SEE A FEW SCATTERED TSRA POP UP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WEAK CAPPING
SHOULD PREVENT THEM FROM LASTING LONG.

950 AM...THIS UPDATE SCALES BACK THE FOG...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
LINGER JUST OFFSHORE AND PROBABLY COME AND GO AT THE BEACHES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HAVE ALL SCALED BACK POPS TO CLOSER TO ZERO
THRU NOON...AND THEN INCREASE THEM TO CHC POPS BY 18Z. LOTS OF
CAPE IN SOME SPOTS TODAY...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2K J/KG...BUT LIGHT
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES. STILL COULD SEE A PULSE STORM OR TWO
ROTATE TO HOLD UP A CORE AND PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND MAYBE
SOME WIND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH BOUNDARIES FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TODAY...SEA BREEZE...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING DUE TO
CLOUDS...AND BOUNDARY FROM YESTERDAY THAT MAY BE LINGERING ACROSS
CHESHIRE/HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES.

PREVIOUSLY...MOIST AIR MASS NOW FULLY IN PLACE ACROSS MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS IS NOTED BY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG OVER MUCH
OF MAINE AND PARTS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
SHOULD BURN OFF AS THE MORNING WEARS ON AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE 80S OVER MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE... WHILE STAYING A
LITTLE COOLER OVER MAINE WHERE AN ONSHORE WIND TEMPERS WARMING.

AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD AT THE SURFACE... A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC AND INTO NORTHERN MAINE TODAY WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE EAST CLOSER TO
THE UPPER TROUGH BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR TODAY IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF
20 KT... SO NOT SOMETHING THAT WOULD SUGGEST SUPERCELLS.
HOWEVER... THE NORTH NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD COUNTERACT
THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE ALONG THE MAINE COAST AND PROVIDE
SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED AREAS OF BETTER TOTAL WIND SHEAR. THESE
AREAS WILL BE LACKING IN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DUE TO THE
COOLER ONSHORE WIND... BUT ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY REMAINS ALOFT EVEN OVER THESE AREAS. WITH
A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AROUND... THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SMALL HAIL TODAY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER... ELEVATED
INSTABILITY STILL EXISTS SO ANY ONGOING CONVECTION COULD MAINTAIN
ITSELF THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD SEE FOG REFORMING ALONG THE MAINE
COASTLINE.

ON TUESDAY A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA... ALONG WITH EVEN GREATER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 2000 HAVE BEEN NOTED IN SOME MODEL
FORECASTS. OVERALL WIND SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE BIT GREATER...
RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 KT. THIS IS GETTING ON THE BORDER LINE OF
WHAT MIGHT BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW SUPERCELLS. AS A RESULT... HAVE MENTIONED SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS IN THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE THREAT FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
THUNDERSTORMS. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED THE AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHEN THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL MOVE THROUGH... AS THE MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON
WHETHER IT WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING OR COME THROUGH
EARLIER... LEAVING OUR AREA IN SUBSIDENT FLOW WHICH WOULD TEND TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
WILL SHIFT SE AS RIDGING PUSHES EAST WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS
WILL KEEP THE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST SHORT LIVED AND THE
RIDGING MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY. THEREAFTER TROUGHING REMAINS
OVERHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE RIPPLES WILL
CAUSE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS IT LINGERS ALOFT EVERY
18-24 HRS OR SO.

THE RESULT HOWEVER BRIEF WILL BE 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 18 DEGREES
C OVER SOUTHERN NH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO LOWER TO MID
90S WITH MID 80S FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY BUT SHOULD REACH THE 70S
AND 80S STILL AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL LOOKS GOOD AND WE COULD HAVE STRONG STORMS WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR... ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. NOT EXPECTING FLOODING TO BE AN ISSUE WITH A FAST MOVING
BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH PW VALUES DO INCREASE TO 1.75 INCHES OR SO WHICH
IS CLOSE TO THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BUT THE CARRABASSETT VALLEY MAY SEE A
FEW SHOWERS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE AREA. A MORE POTENT
SHORT WAVE ARRIVES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF
FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FAR WESTERN MAINE. COULD
LINGER A LITTLE LONGER EAST OF PORTLAND THOUGH. AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA... WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT BEING IN THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL NOT GO AWAY ENTIRELY. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR WITH PERIODS OF NOCTURNAL FOG IN MOIST
LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS AND WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 271617
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1217 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1215 PM...MESOSCALE MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO FIRE UP CONVECTION OVER
THE SRN TIER OF COUNTIES IN NH THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE LEFTOVER
BOUNDARY FROM YESTERDAY IS PROBABLY LINGERING. THEREFORE, HAVE
HOT THIS A LITTLE HARDER ON POPS/QPF THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO..MAY SEE
SOME BACKBUILDING ALONG THAT BOUNDARY SO ADDED HEAVY RAIN HERE.
ALSO WATCHING CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE MONTREAL AREA
NOW...WHICH MAY WORK INTO NRN ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THIS HAS ACCESS TO SOME BETTER DYNAMICS, AND COULD PRODUCE SOME
SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. ELSEWHERE...AWAY FROM THE COAST COULD
SEE A FEW SCATTERED TSRA POP UP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WEAK CAPPING
SHOULD PREVENT THEM FROM LASTING LONG.

950 AM...THIS UPDATE SCALES BACK THE FOG...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
LINGER JUST OFFSHORE AND PROBABLY COME AND GO AT THE BEACHES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HAVE ALL SCALED BACK POPS TO CLOSER TO ZERO
THRU NOON...AND THEN INCREASE THEM TO CHC POPS BY 18Z. LOTS OF
CAPE IN SOME SPOTS TODAY...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2K J/KG...BUT LIGHT
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES. STILL COULD SEE A PULSE STORM OR TWO
ROTATE TO HOLD UP A CORE AND PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND MAYBE
SOME WIND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH BOUNDARIES FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TODAY...SEA BREEZE...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING DUE TO
CLOUDS...AND BOUNDARY FROM YESTERDAY THAT MAY BE LINGERING ACROSS
CHESHIRE/HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES.

PREVIOUSLY...MOIST AIR MASS NOW FULLY IN PLACE ACROSS MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS IS NOTED BY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG OVER MUCH
OF MAINE AND PARTS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
SHOULD BURN OFF AS THE MORNING WEARS ON AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE 80S OVER MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE... WHILE STAYING A
LITTLE COOLER OVER MAINE WHERE AN ONSHORE WIND TEMPERS WARMING.

AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD AT THE SURFACE... A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC AND INTO NORTHERN MAINE TODAY WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE EAST CLOSER TO
THE UPPER TROUGH BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR TODAY IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF
20 KT... SO NOT SOMETHING THAT WOULD SUGGEST SUPERCELLS.
HOWEVER... THE NORTH NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD COUNTERACT
THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE ALONG THE MAINE COAST AND PROVIDE
SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED AREAS OF BETTER TOTAL WIND SHEAR. THESE
AREAS WILL BE LACKING IN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DUE TO THE
COOLER ONSHORE WIND... BUT ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY REMAINS ALOFT EVEN OVER THESE AREAS. WITH
A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AROUND... THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SMALL HAIL TODAY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER... ELEVATED
INSTABILITY STILL EXISTS SO ANY ONGOING CONVECTION COULD MAINTAIN
ITSELF THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD SEE FOG REFORMING ALONG THE MAINE
COASTLINE.

ON TUESDAY A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA... ALONG WITH EVEN GREATER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 2000 HAVE BEEN NOTED IN SOME MODEL
FORECASTS. OVERALL WIND SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE BIT GREATER...
RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 KT. THIS IS GETTING ON THE BORDER LINE OF
WHAT MIGHT BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW SUPERCELLS. AS A RESULT... HAVE MENTIONED SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS IN THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE THREAT FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
THUNDERSTORMS. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED THE AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHEN THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL MOVE THROUGH... AS THE MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON
WHETHER IT WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING OR COME THROUGH
EARLIER... LEAVING OUR AREA IN SUBSIDENT FLOW WHICH WOULD TEND TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
WILL SHIFT SE AS RIDGING PUSHES EAST WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS
WILL KEEP THE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST SHORT LIVED AND THE
RIDGING MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY. THEREAFTER TROUGHING REMAINS
OVERHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE RIPPLES WILL
CAUSE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS IT LINGERS ALOFT EVERY
18-24 HRS OR SO.

THE RESULT HOWEVER BRIEF WILL BE 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 18 DEGREES
C OVER SOUTHERN NH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO LOWER TO MID
90S WITH MID 80S FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY BUT SHOULD REACH THE 70S
AND 80S STILL AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL LOOKS GOOD AND WE COULD HAVE STRONG STORMS WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR... ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. NOT EXPECTING FLOODING TO BE AN ISSUE WITH A FAST MOVING
BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH PW VALUES DO INCREASE TO 1.75 INCHES OR SO WHICH
IS CLOSE TO THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BUT THE CARRABASSETT VALLEY MAY SEE A
FEW SHOWERS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE AREA. A MORE POTENT
SHORT WAVE ARRIVES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF
FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FAR WESTERN MAINE. COULD
LINGER A LITTLE LONGER EAST OF PORTLAND THOUGH. AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA... WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT BEING IN THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL NOT GO AWAY ENTIRELY. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR WITH PERIODS OF NOCTURNAL FOG IN MOIST
LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS AND WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271617
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1217 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1215 PM...MESOSCALE MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO FIRE UP CONVECTION OVER
THE SRN TIER OF COUNTIES IN NH THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE LEFTOVER
BOUNDARY FROM YESTERDAY IS PROBABLY LINGERING. THEREFORE, HAVE
HOT THIS A LITTLE HARDER ON POPS/QPF THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO..MAY SEE
SOME BACKBUILDING ALONG THAT BOUNDARY SO ADDED HEAVY RAIN HERE.
ALSO WATCHING CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE MONTREAL AREA
NOW...WHICH MAY WORK INTO NRN ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THIS HAS ACCESS TO SOME BETTER DYNAMICS, AND COULD PRODUCE SOME
SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. ELSEWHERE...AWAY FROM THE COAST COULD
SEE A FEW SCATTERED TSRA POP UP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WEAK CAPPING
SHOULD PREVENT THEM FROM LASTING LONG.

950 AM...THIS UPDATE SCALES BACK THE FOG...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
LINGER JUST OFFSHORE AND PROBABLY COME AND GO AT THE BEACHES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HAVE ALL SCALED BACK POPS TO CLOSER TO ZERO
THRU NOON...AND THEN INCREASE THEM TO CHC POPS BY 18Z. LOTS OF
CAPE IN SOME SPOTS TODAY...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2K J/KG...BUT LIGHT
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES. STILL COULD SEE A PULSE STORM OR TWO
ROTATE TO HOLD UP A CORE AND PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND MAYBE
SOME WIND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH BOUNDARIES FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TODAY...SEA BREEZE...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING DUE TO
CLOUDS...AND BOUNDARY FROM YESTERDAY THAT MAY BE LINGERING ACROSS
CHESHIRE/HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES.

PREVIOUSLY...MOIST AIR MASS NOW FULLY IN PLACE ACROSS MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS IS NOTED BY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG OVER MUCH
OF MAINE AND PARTS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
SHOULD BURN OFF AS THE MORNING WEARS ON AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE 80S OVER MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE... WHILE STAYING A
LITTLE COOLER OVER MAINE WHERE AN ONSHORE WIND TEMPERS WARMING.

AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD AT THE SURFACE... A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC AND INTO NORTHERN MAINE TODAY WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE EAST CLOSER TO
THE UPPER TROUGH BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR TODAY IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF
20 KT... SO NOT SOMETHING THAT WOULD SUGGEST SUPERCELLS.
HOWEVER... THE NORTH NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD COUNTERACT
THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE ALONG THE MAINE COAST AND PROVIDE
SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED AREAS OF BETTER TOTAL WIND SHEAR. THESE
AREAS WILL BE LACKING IN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DUE TO THE
COOLER ONSHORE WIND... BUT ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY REMAINS ALOFT EVEN OVER THESE AREAS. WITH
A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AROUND... THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SMALL HAIL TODAY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER... ELEVATED
INSTABILITY STILL EXISTS SO ANY ONGOING CONVECTION COULD MAINTAIN
ITSELF THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD SEE FOG REFORMING ALONG THE MAINE
COASTLINE.

ON TUESDAY A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA... ALONG WITH EVEN GREATER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 2000 HAVE BEEN NOTED IN SOME MODEL
FORECASTS. OVERALL WIND SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE BIT GREATER...
RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 KT. THIS IS GETTING ON THE BORDER LINE OF
WHAT MIGHT BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW SUPERCELLS. AS A RESULT... HAVE MENTIONED SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS IN THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE THREAT FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
THUNDERSTORMS. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED THE AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHEN THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL MOVE THROUGH... AS THE MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON
WHETHER IT WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING OR COME THROUGH
EARLIER... LEAVING OUR AREA IN SUBSIDENT FLOW WHICH WOULD TEND TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
WILL SHIFT SE AS RIDGING PUSHES EAST WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS
WILL KEEP THE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST SHORT LIVED AND THE
RIDGING MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY. THEREAFTER TROUGHING REMAINS
OVERHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE RIPPLES WILL
CAUSE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS IT LINGERS ALOFT EVERY
18-24 HRS OR SO.

THE RESULT HOWEVER BRIEF WILL BE 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 18 DEGREES
C OVER SOUTHERN NH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO LOWER TO MID
90S WITH MID 80S FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY BUT SHOULD REACH THE 70S
AND 80S STILL AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL LOOKS GOOD AND WE COULD HAVE STRONG STORMS WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR... ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. NOT EXPECTING FLOODING TO BE AN ISSUE WITH A FAST MOVING
BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH PW VALUES DO INCREASE TO 1.75 INCHES OR SO WHICH
IS CLOSE TO THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BUT THE CARRABASSETT VALLEY MAY SEE A
FEW SHOWERS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE AREA. A MORE POTENT
SHORT WAVE ARRIVES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF
FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FAR WESTERN MAINE. COULD
LINGER A LITTLE LONGER EAST OF PORTLAND THOUGH. AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA... WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT BEING IN THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL NOT GO AWAY ENTIRELY. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR WITH PERIODS OF NOCTURNAL FOG IN MOIST
LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS AND WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



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