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000
FXUS61 KGYX 202307
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
707 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO
THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7PM UPDATE: TWEAKED EVENING SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT MORE CLOUD COVER.
INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND TEMPS/DEWPTS LOOK ON TRACK. NO OTHER
CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC:
WEAK 500MB RIDGING BETWEEN CLOSED LOW EXITING THE MARITIMES TO
THE NE...AND DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE PH VLY WILL ALLOW FOR A MAINLY
DRY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE STAGNANT SFC FLOW
OVERNIGHT...AS THE MID LVLS BECOME MORE SRLY TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOOK
FOR THE ONSHORE TO DEVELOP STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND IN THE SE UPSLOPE AREAS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST..WHICH
BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF A
VERY LIGHT SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
THIS EVENING...AS CLEAR SKIES HOLD UNTIL A ROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT
ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY THRU THE LATTER
PART OF THE NIGHT....WITH LOWS MID TO UPPER 30S N AND 40 TO 45
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SFC FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY WEAK...AND WILL LKLY SEE A BIT OF A
COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH NE WINDS INLAND...AND A MORE E
FLOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPING. THIS
COMBINED WITH MID LVL WAA...WILL PRODUCE A STEADY RAIN BY
AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. IN THE MTNS
AND POINTS N...WILL BE MORE SHOWERY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
DOWNSLOPE HELPS DRY THINGS A BIT...BUT EVEN HERE THE WAA WILL
PRODUCE STEADY RAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 40S N TO MIS 50S ON THE COAST...AS THE THE MARINE
AIR WORKS IN.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A MAINLY STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK
OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW BEGIN TO FORM S OF LONG ISLAND NY...BUT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND BREEZIEST CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WED.  MINS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR
THE DELMARVA. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG
THE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. WE`LL SEE BANDS OF RAIN
PINWHEELING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY FALLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. QPF
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOCALIZED 5 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DESPITE WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE DRIVES ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR SHOULD HOLD THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY
DETERIORATING CONDS BEGINNING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS ONSHORE FLOW
MOVES STRATUS AND RAIN INLAND ON WED...BY WED AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE
COASTAL AREAS DOWN TO IFR...WITH INLAND AREAS FOLLOWING BY TUE
EVENING.

LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...IFR IN RAIN AND FOG. NE SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL SEE E FLOW BEGIN TO PICK UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS/WINDS EXPECTED
BY MIDNIGHT...AND BUILDING TO GALES BY WED MORNING.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

FRI...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUN UP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION AND SPLASH OVER ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
COASTLINE. NEAR SHORE WAVES COULD TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 FOOT
RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 202307
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
707 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO
THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7PM UPDATE: TWEAKED EVENING SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT MORE CLOUD COVER.
INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND TEMPS/DEWPTS LOOK ON TRACK. NO OTHER
CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC:
WEAK 500MB RIDGING BETWEEN CLOSED LOW EXITING THE MARITIMES TO
THE NE...AND DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE PH VLY WILL ALLOW FOR A MAINLY
DRY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE STAGNANT SFC FLOW
OVERNIGHT...AS THE MID LVLS BECOME MORE SRLY TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOOK
FOR THE ONSHORE TO DEVELOP STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND IN THE SE UPSLOPE AREAS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST..WHICH
BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF A
VERY LIGHT SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
THIS EVENING...AS CLEAR SKIES HOLD UNTIL A ROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT
ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY THRU THE LATTER
PART OF THE NIGHT....WITH LOWS MID TO UPPER 30S N AND 40 TO 45
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SFC FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY WEAK...AND WILL LKLY SEE A BIT OF A
COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH NE WINDS INLAND...AND A MORE E
FLOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPING. THIS
COMBINED WITH MID LVL WAA...WILL PRODUCE A STEADY RAIN BY
AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. IN THE MTNS
AND POINTS N...WILL BE MORE SHOWERY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
DOWNSLOPE HELPS DRY THINGS A BIT...BUT EVEN HERE THE WAA WILL
PRODUCE STEADY RAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 40S N TO MIS 50S ON THE COAST...AS THE THE MARINE
AIR WORKS IN.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A MAINLY STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK
OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW BEGIN TO FORM S OF LONG ISLAND NY...BUT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND BREEZIEST CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WED.  MINS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR
THE DELMARVA. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG
THE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. WE`LL SEE BANDS OF RAIN
PINWHEELING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY FALLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. QPF
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOCALIZED 5 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DESPITE WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE DRIVES ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR SHOULD HOLD THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY
DETERIORATING CONDS BEGINNING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS ONSHORE FLOW
MOVES STRATUS AND RAIN INLAND ON WED...BY WED AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE
COASTAL AREAS DOWN TO IFR...WITH INLAND AREAS FOLLOWING BY TUE
EVENING.

LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...IFR IN RAIN AND FOG. NE SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL SEE E FLOW BEGIN TO PICK UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS/WINDS EXPECTED
BY MIDNIGHT...AND BUILDING TO GALES BY WED MORNING.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

FRI...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUN UP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION AND SPLASH OVER ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
COASTLINE. NEAR SHORE WAVES COULD TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 FOOT
RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBOX 202300
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY
PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...

MID LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING
ON SCHEDULE. 18Z MODELS AND LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
FORECAST OF THICKENING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHICH AREAS ARE FAVORED
WITH HRRR SHOWING NARROW BAND ACROSS MA/NH AND 18Z NAM MORE
FOCUSED ON RI/SE MA CLOSER TO SURFACE TROUGH.

FORECAST LOWS IN 40S LOOK GOOD AND NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
***NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
  ENGLAND***

TUESDAY...

INTERESTING SETUP WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE INTERACTION OF THE
COLD POOL ALOFT...A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND AXIS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. INTERESTING THAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ARE SHOWING A NARROW AXIS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXACT LOCATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND IT COULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. WE MAY BE DEALING WITH
LOCALIZED NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING IN THIS REGION IF
THIS NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS.

FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT BEST FORCING/MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES...SO ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD.

AS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...500 MB TEMPS WILL BE BELOW -20C AND
RESULT IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN
INDICATING MU CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS SOME OF THE REGION.  WHILE WE
CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...BEST SHOT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

APPEARS THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT TEMPORARILY SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION AND INTO NORTHER NEW ENGLAND.
NONETHELESS...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE WILL STILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE MOST
WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES...CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS AND FORCING.  LOW TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MIGRATES
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND INTO THE MARITIMES FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RACES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES
THIS WEEK AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST USA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HEIGHT CONTOURS ARE
BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LOW...THEN RECOVER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.

THIS PATTERN FAVORS A COOL WET MID AND LATE WEEK...THEN DRY AND
SEASONABLE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TYPES
OF WEATHER...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND AN
EAST 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS COASTAL MAINE AND WRAPPING INTO
NH/VT. THIS MAY BRING ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN NH
AND NORTHERN MASS...WITH WEAKER LIFT FARTHER SOUTH. BY THURSDAY THE
COLD CORE IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. SO WEDNESDAY IS A TRANSITION FROM
STRATIFORM TO CONVECTIVE...THURSDAY MAINLY CONVECTIVE. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY BOTH DAYS TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF THUNDER.

FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.
COLD CORE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE CLOUDS AND SOME INSTABILITY.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
LATER SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT MAY
ACTUALLY BE THE NUDGE THAT GETS THE LAST OF THE COLD POOL CLOUDS OUT
OF OUR AREA. THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IS LESS DEFINED AND SO WE FEATURE JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN SRN NH AND NRN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT DAYTIME
MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS
ALOFT WARMER FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY. TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT 60S BOTH
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
BUT SHOULD NOT BRING LOWER CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MAINLY
MVFR THRESHOLDS IN MORNING NEAR COAST...BUT BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBYS
ARE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE. BULK OF THE FOCUS SHOULD BE ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  LOW END MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATE IN LOW CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FOG
PATCHES. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
TUESDAY.  LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PROLONGED PERIOD OF MIXED MVFR/IFR...WITH MORE
IFR IN RAIN WEDNESDAY AND MORE MVFR IN SHOWERS THURSDAY. CHANCE OF
THUNDER BOTH DAYS. CHANCE OF 30 KNOT EAST-NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE OUTER CAPE AND MASSACHUSETTS NORTH SHORE
AREAS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS.  HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL COMBINED WITH A 1030 MB HIGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA.  EASTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.
PRETTY MUCH A LOCK THAT SCA SEAS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND
PARTICULARLY OUR NORTHERN OUTER-WATERS TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT.
IN FACT...BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY SEAS MAY BE APPROACHING 10 FEET
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN WATERS ALONG WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.  SCA
HEADLINES POSTED FOR THIS REGION.

WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS
TOWARDS 12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT ITS TOO MARGINAL FOR LATE 3RD PERIOD SCA
HEADLINES IN THIS REGION.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST JET WILL BE FEEDING
INTO THE MAINE MID-COAST WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR WATERS. WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS MAY
EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MERRIMACK RIVER AND POSSIBLY CAPE ANN.
WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME VARIABLE THURSDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WEDNESDAY REACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS
WITH 8 TO 10 FEET POSSIBLE FROM CAPE ANN TO MERRIMACK RIVER. BY
THURSDAY THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL EXPAND THE AREA OF 8
TO 10 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE EASTERN WATERS AND SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY... AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TOWARD THE
MARITIMES...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE WIND DIRECTION TO OFFSHORE...WE EXPECT SEAS
TO DIMINISH. BUT 5 FOOT SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
THE DAY.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...WTB/JWD
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK/JWD
MARINE...WTB/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 202300
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY
PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...

MID LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING
ON SCHEDULE. 18Z MODELS AND LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
FORECAST OF THICKENING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHICH AREAS ARE FAVORED
WITH HRRR SHOWING NARROW BAND ACROSS MA/NH AND 18Z NAM MORE
FOCUSED ON RI/SE MA CLOSER TO SURFACE TROUGH.

FORECAST LOWS IN 40S LOOK GOOD AND NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
***NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
  ENGLAND***

TUESDAY...

INTERESTING SETUP WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE INTERACTION OF THE
COLD POOL ALOFT...A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND AXIS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. INTERESTING THAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ARE SHOWING A NARROW AXIS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXACT LOCATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND IT COULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. WE MAY BE DEALING WITH
LOCALIZED NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING IN THIS REGION IF
THIS NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS.

FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT BEST FORCING/MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES...SO ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD.

AS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...500 MB TEMPS WILL BE BELOW -20C AND
RESULT IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN
INDICATING MU CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS SOME OF THE REGION.  WHILE WE
CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...BEST SHOT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

APPEARS THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT TEMPORARILY SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION AND INTO NORTHER NEW ENGLAND.
NONETHELESS...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE WILL STILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE MOST
WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES...CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS AND FORCING.  LOW TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MIGRATES
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND INTO THE MARITIMES FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RACES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES
THIS WEEK AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST USA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HEIGHT CONTOURS ARE
BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LOW...THEN RECOVER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.

THIS PATTERN FAVORS A COOL WET MID AND LATE WEEK...THEN DRY AND
SEASONABLE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TYPES
OF WEATHER...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND AN
EAST 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS COASTAL MAINE AND WRAPPING INTO
NH/VT. THIS MAY BRING ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN NH
AND NORTHERN MASS...WITH WEAKER LIFT FARTHER SOUTH. BY THURSDAY THE
COLD CORE IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. SO WEDNESDAY IS A TRANSITION FROM
STRATIFORM TO CONVECTIVE...THURSDAY MAINLY CONVECTIVE. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY BOTH DAYS TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF THUNDER.

FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.
COLD CORE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE CLOUDS AND SOME INSTABILITY.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
LATER SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT MAY
ACTUALLY BE THE NUDGE THAT GETS THE LAST OF THE COLD POOL CLOUDS OUT
OF OUR AREA. THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IS LESS DEFINED AND SO WE FEATURE JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN SRN NH AND NRN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT DAYTIME
MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS
ALOFT WARMER FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY. TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT 60S BOTH
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
BUT SHOULD NOT BRING LOWER CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MAINLY
MVFR THRESHOLDS IN MORNING NEAR COAST...BUT BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBYS
ARE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE. BULK OF THE FOCUS SHOULD BE ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  LOW END MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATE IN LOW CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FOG
PATCHES. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
TUESDAY.  LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PROLONGED PERIOD OF MIXED MVFR/IFR...WITH MORE
IFR IN RAIN WEDNESDAY AND MORE MVFR IN SHOWERS THURSDAY. CHANCE OF
THUNDER BOTH DAYS. CHANCE OF 30 KNOT EAST-NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE OUTER CAPE AND MASSACHUSETTS NORTH SHORE
AREAS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS.  HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL COMBINED WITH A 1030 MB HIGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA.  EASTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.
PRETTY MUCH A LOCK THAT SCA SEAS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND
PARTICULARLY OUR NORTHERN OUTER-WATERS TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT.
IN FACT...BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY SEAS MAY BE APPROACHING 10 FEET
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN WATERS ALONG WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.  SCA
HEADLINES POSTED FOR THIS REGION.

WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS
TOWARDS 12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT ITS TOO MARGINAL FOR LATE 3RD PERIOD SCA
HEADLINES IN THIS REGION.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST JET WILL BE FEEDING
INTO THE MAINE MID-COAST WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR WATERS. WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS MAY
EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MERRIMACK RIVER AND POSSIBLY CAPE ANN.
WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME VARIABLE THURSDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WEDNESDAY REACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS
WITH 8 TO 10 FEET POSSIBLE FROM CAPE ANN TO MERRIMACK RIVER. BY
THURSDAY THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL EXPAND THE AREA OF 8
TO 10 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE EASTERN WATERS AND SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY... AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TOWARD THE
MARITIMES...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE WIND DIRECTION TO OFFSHORE...WE EXPECT SEAS
TO DIMINISH. BUT 5 FOOT SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
THE DAY.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...WTB/JWD
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK/JWD
MARINE...WTB/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 202300
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY
PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...

MID LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING
ON SCHEDULE. 18Z MODELS AND LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
FORECAST OF THICKENING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHICH AREAS ARE FAVORED
WITH HRRR SHOWING NARROW BAND ACROSS MA/NH AND 18Z NAM MORE
FOCUSED ON RI/SE MA CLOSER TO SURFACE TROUGH.

FORECAST LOWS IN 40S LOOK GOOD AND NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
***NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
  ENGLAND***

TUESDAY...

INTERESTING SETUP WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE INTERACTION OF THE
COLD POOL ALOFT...A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND AXIS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. INTERESTING THAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ARE SHOWING A NARROW AXIS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXACT LOCATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND IT COULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. WE MAY BE DEALING WITH
LOCALIZED NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING IN THIS REGION IF
THIS NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS.

FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT BEST FORCING/MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES...SO ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD.

AS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...500 MB TEMPS WILL BE BELOW -20C AND
RESULT IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN
INDICATING MU CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS SOME OF THE REGION.  WHILE WE
CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...BEST SHOT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

APPEARS THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT TEMPORARILY SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION AND INTO NORTHER NEW ENGLAND.
NONETHELESS...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE WILL STILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE MOST
WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES...CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS AND FORCING.  LOW TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MIGRATES
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND INTO THE MARITIMES FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RACES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES
THIS WEEK AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST USA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HEIGHT CONTOURS ARE
BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LOW...THEN RECOVER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.

THIS PATTERN FAVORS A COOL WET MID AND LATE WEEK...THEN DRY AND
SEASONABLE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TYPES
OF WEATHER...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND AN
EAST 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS COASTAL MAINE AND WRAPPING INTO
NH/VT. THIS MAY BRING ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN NH
AND NORTHERN MASS...WITH WEAKER LIFT FARTHER SOUTH. BY THURSDAY THE
COLD CORE IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. SO WEDNESDAY IS A TRANSITION FROM
STRATIFORM TO CONVECTIVE...THURSDAY MAINLY CONVECTIVE. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY BOTH DAYS TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF THUNDER.

FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.
COLD CORE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE CLOUDS AND SOME INSTABILITY.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
LATER SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT MAY
ACTUALLY BE THE NUDGE THAT GETS THE LAST OF THE COLD POOL CLOUDS OUT
OF OUR AREA. THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IS LESS DEFINED AND SO WE FEATURE JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN SRN NH AND NRN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT DAYTIME
MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS
ALOFT WARMER FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY. TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT 60S BOTH
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
BUT SHOULD NOT BRING LOWER CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MAINLY
MVFR THRESHOLDS IN MORNING NEAR COAST...BUT BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBYS
ARE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE. BULK OF THE FOCUS SHOULD BE ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  LOW END MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATE IN LOW CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FOG
PATCHES. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
TUESDAY.  LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PROLONGED PERIOD OF MIXED MVFR/IFR...WITH MORE
IFR IN RAIN WEDNESDAY AND MORE MVFR IN SHOWERS THURSDAY. CHANCE OF
THUNDER BOTH DAYS. CHANCE OF 30 KNOT EAST-NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE OUTER CAPE AND MASSACHUSETTS NORTH SHORE
AREAS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS.  HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL COMBINED WITH A 1030 MB HIGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA.  EASTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.
PRETTY MUCH A LOCK THAT SCA SEAS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND
PARTICULARLY OUR NORTHERN OUTER-WATERS TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT.
IN FACT...BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY SEAS MAY BE APPROACHING 10 FEET
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN WATERS ALONG WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.  SCA
HEADLINES POSTED FOR THIS REGION.

WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS
TOWARDS 12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT ITS TOO MARGINAL FOR LATE 3RD PERIOD SCA
HEADLINES IN THIS REGION.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST JET WILL BE FEEDING
INTO THE MAINE MID-COAST WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR WATERS. WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS MAY
EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MERRIMACK RIVER AND POSSIBLY CAPE ANN.
WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME VARIABLE THURSDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WEDNESDAY REACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS
WITH 8 TO 10 FEET POSSIBLE FROM CAPE ANN TO MERRIMACK RIVER. BY
THURSDAY THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL EXPAND THE AREA OF 8
TO 10 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE EASTERN WATERS AND SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY... AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TOWARD THE
MARITIMES...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE WIND DIRECTION TO OFFSHORE...WE EXPECT SEAS
TO DIMINISH. BUT 5 FOOT SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
THE DAY.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...WTB/JWD
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK/JWD
MARINE...WTB/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 202300
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY
PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...

MID LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING
ON SCHEDULE. 18Z MODELS AND LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
FORECAST OF THICKENING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHICH AREAS ARE FAVORED
WITH HRRR SHOWING NARROW BAND ACROSS MA/NH AND 18Z NAM MORE
FOCUSED ON RI/SE MA CLOSER TO SURFACE TROUGH.

FORECAST LOWS IN 40S LOOK GOOD AND NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
***NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
  ENGLAND***

TUESDAY...

INTERESTING SETUP WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE INTERACTION OF THE
COLD POOL ALOFT...A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND AXIS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. INTERESTING THAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ARE SHOWING A NARROW AXIS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXACT LOCATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND IT COULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. WE MAY BE DEALING WITH
LOCALIZED NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING IN THIS REGION IF
THIS NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS.

FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT BEST FORCING/MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES...SO ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD.

AS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...500 MB TEMPS WILL BE BELOW -20C AND
RESULT IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN
INDICATING MU CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS SOME OF THE REGION.  WHILE WE
CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...BEST SHOT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

APPEARS THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT TEMPORARILY SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION AND INTO NORTHER NEW ENGLAND.
NONETHELESS...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE WILL STILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE MOST
WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES...CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS AND FORCING.  LOW TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MIGRATES
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND INTO THE MARITIMES FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RACES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES
THIS WEEK AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST USA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HEIGHT CONTOURS ARE
BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LOW...THEN RECOVER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.

THIS PATTERN FAVORS A COOL WET MID AND LATE WEEK...THEN DRY AND
SEASONABLE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TYPES
OF WEATHER...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND AN
EAST 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS COASTAL MAINE AND WRAPPING INTO
NH/VT. THIS MAY BRING ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN NH
AND NORTHERN MASS...WITH WEAKER LIFT FARTHER SOUTH. BY THURSDAY THE
COLD CORE IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. SO WEDNESDAY IS A TRANSITION FROM
STRATIFORM TO CONVECTIVE...THURSDAY MAINLY CONVECTIVE. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY BOTH DAYS TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF THUNDER.

FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.
COLD CORE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE CLOUDS AND SOME INSTABILITY.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
LATER SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT MAY
ACTUALLY BE THE NUDGE THAT GETS THE LAST OF THE COLD POOL CLOUDS OUT
OF OUR AREA. THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IS LESS DEFINED AND SO WE FEATURE JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN SRN NH AND NRN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT DAYTIME
MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS
ALOFT WARMER FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY. TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT 60S BOTH
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
BUT SHOULD NOT BRING LOWER CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MAINLY
MVFR THRESHOLDS IN MORNING NEAR COAST...BUT BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBYS
ARE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE. BULK OF THE FOCUS SHOULD BE ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  LOW END MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATE IN LOW CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FOG
PATCHES. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
TUESDAY.  LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PROLONGED PERIOD OF MIXED MVFR/IFR...WITH MORE
IFR IN RAIN WEDNESDAY AND MORE MVFR IN SHOWERS THURSDAY. CHANCE OF
THUNDER BOTH DAYS. CHANCE OF 30 KNOT EAST-NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE OUTER CAPE AND MASSACHUSETTS NORTH SHORE
AREAS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS.  HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL COMBINED WITH A 1030 MB HIGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA.  EASTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.
PRETTY MUCH A LOCK THAT SCA SEAS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND
PARTICULARLY OUR NORTHERN OUTER-WATERS TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT.
IN FACT...BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY SEAS MAY BE APPROACHING 10 FEET
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN WATERS ALONG WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.  SCA
HEADLINES POSTED FOR THIS REGION.

WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS
TOWARDS 12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT ITS TOO MARGINAL FOR LATE 3RD PERIOD SCA
HEADLINES IN THIS REGION.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST JET WILL BE FEEDING
INTO THE MAINE MID-COAST WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR WATERS. WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS MAY
EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MERRIMACK RIVER AND POSSIBLY CAPE ANN.
WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME VARIABLE THURSDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WEDNESDAY REACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS
WITH 8 TO 10 FEET POSSIBLE FROM CAPE ANN TO MERRIMACK RIVER. BY
THURSDAY THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL EXPAND THE AREA OF 8
TO 10 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE EASTERN WATERS AND SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY... AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TOWARD THE
MARITIMES...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE WIND DIRECTION TO OFFSHORE...WE EXPECT SEAS
TO DIMINISH. BUT 5 FOOT SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
THE DAY.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...WTB/JWD
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK/JWD
MARINE...WTB/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 201953
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
353 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY
PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING OUT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.  THE SHORTWAVE WILL BACK THE MID LEVEL
FLOW AND ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AREAL
COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARDS DAYBREAK
REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  MAY INITIALLY SEE A BAND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHWEST MA...BUT FOCUS MAY BEGIN
TO SHIFT TOWARDS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND NEAR 12Z IN THE VICINITY
OF A SURFACE TROUGH.

GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...LOW TEMPS WILL BE MILDER THAN
LAST NIGHT. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

***NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
  ENGLAND***

TUESDAY...

INTERESTING SETUP WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE INTERACTION OF THE
COLD POOL ALOFT...A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND AXIS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. INTERESTING THAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ARE SHOWING A NARROW AXIS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXACT LOCATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND IT COULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. WE MAY BE DEALING WITH
LOCALIZED NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING IN THIS REGION IF
THIS NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS.

FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT BEST FORCING/MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES...SO ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD.

AS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...500 MB TEMPS WILL BE BELOW -20C AND
RESULT IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN
INDICATING MU CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS SOME OF THE REGION.  WHILE WE
CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...BEST SHOT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

APPEARS THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT TEMPORARILY SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION AND INTO NORTHER NEW ENGLAND.
NONETHELESS...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE WILL STILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE MOST
WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES...CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS AND FORCING.  LOW TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MIGRATES
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND INTO THE MARITIMES FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RACES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES
THIS WEEK AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST USA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HEIGHT CONTOURS ARE
BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LOW...THEN RECOVER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.

THIS PATTERN FAVORS A COOL WET MID AND LATE WEEK...THEN DRY AND
SEASONABLE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TYPES
OF WEATHER...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND AN
EAST 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS COASTAL MAINE AND WRAPPING INTO
NH/VT. THIS MAY BRING ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN NH
AND NORTHERN MASS...WITH WEAKER LIFT FARTHER SOUTH. BY THURSDAY THE
COLD CORE IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. SO WEDNESDAY IS A TRANSITION FROM
STRATIFORM TO CONVECTIVE...THURSDAY MAINLY CONVECTIVE. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY BOTH DAYS TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF THUNDER.

FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.
COLD CORE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE CLOUDS AND SOME INSTABILITY.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
LATER SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT MAY
ACTUALLY BE THE NUDGE THAT GETS THE LAST OF THE COLD POOL CLOUDS OUT
OF OUR AREA. THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IS LESS DEFINED AND SO WE FEATURE JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN SRN NH AND NRN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT DAYTIME
MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS
ALOFT WARMER FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY. TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT 60S BOTH
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.  SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO REMAIN VFR.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS PROBABLY DETERIORATE TO
MAINLY MVFR THRESHOLDS...BUT BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
POSSIBLE.  BULK OF THE FOCUS SHOULD BE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  LOW END MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATE IN LOW CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FOG
PATCHES. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
TUESDAY.  LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PROLONGED PERIOD OF MIXED MVFR/IFR...WITH MORE
IFR IN RAIN WEDNESDAY AND MORE MVFR IN SHOWERS THURSDAY. CHANCE OF
THUNDER BOTH DAYS. CHANCE OF 30 KNOT EAST-NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE OUTER CAPE AND MASSACHUSETTS NORTH SHORE
AREAS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS.  HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL COMBINED WITH A 1030 MB HIGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA.  EASTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.
PRETTY MUCH A LOCK THAT SCA SEAS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND
PARTICULARLY OUR NORTHERN OUTER-WATERS TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT.
IN FACT...BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY SEAS MAY BE APPROACHING 10 FEET
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN WATERS ALONG WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.  SCA
HEADLINES POSTED FOR THIS REGION.

WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS
TOWARDS 12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT ITS TOO MARGINAL FOR LATE 3RD PERIOD SCA
HEADLINES IN THIS REGION.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST JET WILL BE FEEDING
INTO THE MAINE MID-COAST WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR WATERS. WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS MAY
EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MERRIMACK RIVER AND POSSIBLY CAPE ANN.
WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME VARIABLE THURSDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WEDNESDAY REACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS
WITH 8 TO 10 FEET POSSIBLE FROM CAPE ANN TO MERRIMACK RIVER. BY
THURSDAY THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL EXPAND THE AREA OF 8
TO 10 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE EASTERN WATERS AND SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY... AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TOWARD THE
MARITIMES...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE WIND DIRECTION TO OFFSHORE...WE EXPECT SEAS
TO DIMINISH. BUT 5 FOOT SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
THE DAY.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/WTB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...FRANK/WTB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 201953
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
353 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY
PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING OUT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.  THE SHORTWAVE WILL BACK THE MID LEVEL
FLOW AND ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AREAL
COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARDS DAYBREAK
REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  MAY INITIALLY SEE A BAND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHWEST MA...BUT FOCUS MAY BEGIN
TO SHIFT TOWARDS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND NEAR 12Z IN THE VICINITY
OF A SURFACE TROUGH.

GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...LOW TEMPS WILL BE MILDER THAN
LAST NIGHT. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

***NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
  ENGLAND***

TUESDAY...

INTERESTING SETUP WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE INTERACTION OF THE
COLD POOL ALOFT...A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND AXIS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. INTERESTING THAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ARE SHOWING A NARROW AXIS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXACT LOCATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND IT COULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. WE MAY BE DEALING WITH
LOCALIZED NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING IN THIS REGION IF
THIS NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS.

FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT BEST FORCING/MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES...SO ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD.

AS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...500 MB TEMPS WILL BE BELOW -20C AND
RESULT IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN
INDICATING MU CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS SOME OF THE REGION.  WHILE WE
CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...BEST SHOT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

APPEARS THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT TEMPORARILY SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION AND INTO NORTHER NEW ENGLAND.
NONETHELESS...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE WILL STILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE MOST
WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES...CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS AND FORCING.  LOW TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MIGRATES
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND INTO THE MARITIMES FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RACES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES
THIS WEEK AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST USA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HEIGHT CONTOURS ARE
BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LOW...THEN RECOVER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.

THIS PATTERN FAVORS A COOL WET MID AND LATE WEEK...THEN DRY AND
SEASONABLE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TYPES
OF WEATHER...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND AN
EAST 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS COASTAL MAINE AND WRAPPING INTO
NH/VT. THIS MAY BRING ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN NH
AND NORTHERN MASS...WITH WEAKER LIFT FARTHER SOUTH. BY THURSDAY THE
COLD CORE IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. SO WEDNESDAY IS A TRANSITION FROM
STRATIFORM TO CONVECTIVE...THURSDAY MAINLY CONVECTIVE. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY BOTH DAYS TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF THUNDER.

FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.
COLD CORE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE CLOUDS AND SOME INSTABILITY.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
LATER SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT MAY
ACTUALLY BE THE NUDGE THAT GETS THE LAST OF THE COLD POOL CLOUDS OUT
OF OUR AREA. THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IS LESS DEFINED AND SO WE FEATURE JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN SRN NH AND NRN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT DAYTIME
MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS
ALOFT WARMER FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY. TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT 60S BOTH
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.  SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO REMAIN VFR.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS PROBABLY DETERIORATE TO
MAINLY MVFR THRESHOLDS...BUT BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
POSSIBLE.  BULK OF THE FOCUS SHOULD BE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  LOW END MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATE IN LOW CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FOG
PATCHES. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
TUESDAY.  LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PROLONGED PERIOD OF MIXED MVFR/IFR...WITH MORE
IFR IN RAIN WEDNESDAY AND MORE MVFR IN SHOWERS THURSDAY. CHANCE OF
THUNDER BOTH DAYS. CHANCE OF 30 KNOT EAST-NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE OUTER CAPE AND MASSACHUSETTS NORTH SHORE
AREAS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS.  HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL COMBINED WITH A 1030 MB HIGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA.  EASTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.
PRETTY MUCH A LOCK THAT SCA SEAS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND
PARTICULARLY OUR NORTHERN OUTER-WATERS TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT.
IN FACT...BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY SEAS MAY BE APPROACHING 10 FEET
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN WATERS ALONG WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.  SCA
HEADLINES POSTED FOR THIS REGION.

WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS
TOWARDS 12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT ITS TOO MARGINAL FOR LATE 3RD PERIOD SCA
HEADLINES IN THIS REGION.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST JET WILL BE FEEDING
INTO THE MAINE MID-COAST WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR WATERS. WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS MAY
EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MERRIMACK RIVER AND POSSIBLY CAPE ANN.
WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME VARIABLE THURSDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WEDNESDAY REACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS
WITH 8 TO 10 FEET POSSIBLE FROM CAPE ANN TO MERRIMACK RIVER. BY
THURSDAY THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL EXPAND THE AREA OF 8
TO 10 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE EASTERN WATERS AND SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY... AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TOWARD THE
MARITIMES...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE WIND DIRECTION TO OFFSHORE...WE EXPECT SEAS
TO DIMINISH. BUT 5 FOOT SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
THE DAY.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/WTB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...FRANK/WTB




000
FXUS61 KGYX 201947
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
347 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO
THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK 500MB RIDGING BETWEEN CLOSED LOW EXITING THE MARITIMES TO THE
NE...AND DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE PH VLY WILL ALLOW FOR A MAINLY DRY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE STAGNANT SFC FLOW
OVERNIGHT...AS THE MID LVLS BECOME MORE SRLY TOWARD DAYBREAK.
LOOK FOR THE ONSHORE TO DEVELOP STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE SE UPSLOPE AREAS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR
WEST..WHICH BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHC OF A VERY LIGHT SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY THIS EVENING...AS CLEAR SKIES HOLD UNTIL A ROUND
MIDNIGHT...BUT ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY
THRU THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT....WITH LOWS MID TO UPPER 30S N
AND 40 TO 45 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SFC FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY WEAK...AND WILL LKLY SEE A BIT OF A
COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH NE WINDS INLAND...AND A MORE E
FLOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPING. THIS
COMBINED WITH MID LVL WAA...WILL PRODUCE A STEADY RAIN BY
AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. IN THE MTNS
AND POINTS N...WILL BE MORE SHOWERY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
DOWNSLOPE HELPS DRY THINGS A BIT...BUT EVEN HERE THE WAA WILL
PRODUCE STEADY RAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 40S N TO MIS 50S ON THE COAST...AS THE THE MARINE
AIR WORKS IN.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A MAINLY STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK
OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW BEGIN TO FORM S OF LONG ISLAND NY...BUT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND BREEZIEST CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WED.  MINS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR
THE DELMARVA. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG
THE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. WE`LL SEE BANDS OF RAIN
PINWHEELING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY FALLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. QPF
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOCALIZED 5 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DESPITE WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE DRIVES ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR SHOULD HOLD THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY
DETERIORATING CONDS BEGINNING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS ONSHORE FLOW
MOVES STRATUS AND RAIN INLAND ON WED...BY WED AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE
COASTAL AREAS DOWN TO IFR...WITH INLAND AREAS FOLLOWING BY TUE
EVENING.

LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...IFR IN RAIN AND FOG. NE SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL SEE E FLOW BEGIN TO PICK UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS/WINDS EXPECTED
BY MIDNIGHT...AND BUILDING TO GALES BY WED MORNING.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

FRI...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUN UP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION AND SPLASH OVER ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
COASTLINE. NEAR SHORE WAVES COULD TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 FOOT
RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR ANZ150>154-170.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 201947
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
347 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO
THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK 500MB RIDGING BETWEEN CLOSED LOW EXITING THE MARITIMES TO THE
NE...AND DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE PH VLY WILL ALLOW FOR A MAINLY DRY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE STAGNANT SFC FLOW
OVERNIGHT...AS THE MID LVLS BECOME MORE SRLY TOWARD DAYBREAK.
LOOK FOR THE ONSHORE TO DEVELOP STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE SE UPSLOPE AREAS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR
WEST..WHICH BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHC OF A VERY LIGHT SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY THIS EVENING...AS CLEAR SKIES HOLD UNTIL A ROUND
MIDNIGHT...BUT ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY
THRU THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT....WITH LOWS MID TO UPPER 30S N
AND 40 TO 45 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SFC FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY WEAK...AND WILL LKLY SEE A BIT OF A
COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH NE WINDS INLAND...AND A MORE E
FLOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPING. THIS
COMBINED WITH MID LVL WAA...WILL PRODUCE A STEADY RAIN BY
AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. IN THE MTNS
AND POINTS N...WILL BE MORE SHOWERY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
DOWNSLOPE HELPS DRY THINGS A BIT...BUT EVEN HERE THE WAA WILL
PRODUCE STEADY RAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 40S N TO MIS 50S ON THE COAST...AS THE THE MARINE
AIR WORKS IN.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A MAINLY STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK
OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW BEGIN TO FORM S OF LONG ISLAND NY...BUT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND BREEZIEST CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WED.  MINS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR
THE DELMARVA. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG
THE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. WE`LL SEE BANDS OF RAIN
PINWHEELING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY FALLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. QPF
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOCALIZED 5 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DESPITE WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE DRIVES ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR SHOULD HOLD THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY
DETERIORATING CONDS BEGINNING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS ONSHORE FLOW
MOVES STRATUS AND RAIN INLAND ON WED...BY WED AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE
COASTAL AREAS DOWN TO IFR...WITH INLAND AREAS FOLLOWING BY TUE
EVENING.

LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...IFR IN RAIN AND FOG. NE SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL SEE E FLOW BEGIN TO PICK UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS/WINDS EXPECTED
BY MIDNIGHT...AND BUILDING TO GALES BY WED MORNING.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

FRI...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUN UP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION AND SPLASH OVER ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
COASTLINE. NEAR SHORE WAVES COULD TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 FOOT
RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR ANZ150>154-170.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CEMPA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 201854
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
254 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY KEEPING
THE WEATHER QUIET. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE STORM MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THEN
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AT MID AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MORE
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...BUT LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MUCH MILDER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT. THIS PUTS THE REGION IN MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
BEGIN TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN. ANTICIPATE CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE
KEPT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WARMER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
THANKS TO THE SW FLOW.

SW LLJ WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AND WITHIN THE SW
WAA FLOW...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING HOURS. THE BEST SHOT
WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PERHAPS THE COASTAL
PLAIN...ALIGN WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LLJ. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS AND EVEN THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS ON TUESDAY WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG COMBINED WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LI VALUES BELOW 0. BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE
INCREASING LLJ HAVE INSERTED ISO THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME CUTOFF OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY...AND WILL DOMINATE THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE/LIFT WILL BE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. RIGHT NOW HAVE THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT
THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY.

BECAUSE OF THE RETURN FLOW AND THAT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS IN WARM
AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MIGRATES
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND INTO THE MARITIMES FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RACES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES
THIS WEEK AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST USA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HEIGHT CONTOURS ARE
BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LOW...THEN RECOVER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.

THIS PATTERN FAVORS A COOL WET MID AND LATE WEEK...THEN DRY AND
SEASONABLE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TYPES
OF WEATHER...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND AN
EAST 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS COASTAL MAINE AND WRAPPING INTO
NH/VT. THIS MAY BRING ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN NH
AND NORTHERN MASS...WITH WEAKER LIFT FARTHER SOUTH. BY THURSDAY THE
COLD CORE IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. SO WEDNESDAY IS A TRANSITION FROM
STRATIFORM TO CONVECTIVE...THURSDAY MAINLY CONVECTIVE. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY BOTH DAYS TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF THUNDER.

FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.
COLD CORE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE CLOUDS AND SOME INSTABILITY.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
LATER SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT MAY
ACTUALLY BE THE NUDGE THAT GETS THE LAST OF THE COLD POOL CLOUDS OUT
OF OUR AREA. THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IS LESS DEFINED AND SO WE FEATURE JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN SRN NH AND NRN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT DAYTIME
MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS
ALOFT WARMER FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY. TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT 60S BOTH
DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.  SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS PROBABLY DETERIORATE TO
MAINLY MVFR THRESHOLDS...BUT BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
POSSIBLE.  BULK OF THE FOCUS ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  LOW END MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATE IN LOW CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FOG
PATCHES. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
TUESDAY.  LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PROLONGED PERIOD OF MIXED MVFR/IFR...WITH MORE
IFR IN RAIN WEDNESDAY AND MORE MVFR IN SHOWERS THURSDAY. CHANCE OF
THUNDER BOTH DAYS. CHANCE OF 30 KNOT EAST-NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE OUTER CAPE AND MASSACHUSETTS NORTH SHORE
AREAS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL LINGERING AROUND 5 FEET DURING THE
THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE EXPANDED SCA ACCORDINGLY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT IS CANCELLED EARLIER.

TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 25 KTS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES
UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT NIGHT.

TOMORROW...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOWING RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR AN ISO THUNDERSTORM DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST JET WILL BE FEEDING
INTO THE MAINE MID-COAST WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR WATERS. WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS MAY
EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MERRIMACK RIVER AND POSSIBLY CAPE ANN.
WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME VARIABLE THURSDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WEDNESDAY REACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS
WITH 8 TO 10 FEET POSSIBLE FROM CAPE ANN TO MERRIMACK RIVER. BY
THURSDAY THE PERSISTANT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL EXPAND THE AREA OF 8 TO
10 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
BE NEEDED FOR THE EASTERN WATERS AND SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY... AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TOWARD THE
MARITIMES...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE WIND DIRECTION TO OFFSHORE...WE EXPECT SEAS
TO DIMINISH. BUT 5 FOOT SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
THE DAY.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 201854
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
254 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY KEEPING
THE WEATHER QUIET. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE STORM MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THEN
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AT MID AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MORE
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...BUT LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MUCH MILDER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT. THIS PUTS THE REGION IN MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
BEGIN TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN. ANTICIPATE CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE
KEPT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WARMER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
THANKS TO THE SW FLOW.

SW LLJ WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AND WITHIN THE SW
WAA FLOW...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING HOURS. THE BEST SHOT
WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PERHAPS THE COASTAL
PLAIN...ALIGN WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LLJ. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS AND EVEN THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS ON TUESDAY WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG COMBINED WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LI VALUES BELOW 0. BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE
INCREASING LLJ HAVE INSERTED ISO THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME CUTOFF OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY...AND WILL DOMINATE THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE/LIFT WILL BE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. RIGHT NOW HAVE THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT
THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY.

BECAUSE OF THE RETURN FLOW AND THAT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS IN WARM
AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MIGRATES
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND INTO THE MARITIMES FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RACES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES
THIS WEEK AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST USA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HEIGHT CONTOURS ARE
BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LOW...THEN RECOVER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.

THIS PATTERN FAVORS A COOL WET MID AND LATE WEEK...THEN DRY AND
SEASONABLE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TYPES
OF WEATHER...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND AN
EAST 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS COASTAL MAINE AND WRAPPING INTO
NH/VT. THIS MAY BRING ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN NH
AND NORTHERN MASS...WITH WEAKER LIFT FARTHER SOUTH. BY THURSDAY THE
COLD CORE IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. SO WEDNESDAY IS A TRANSITION FROM
STRATIFORM TO CONVECTIVE...THURSDAY MAINLY CONVECTIVE. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY BOTH DAYS TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF THUNDER.

FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.
COLD CORE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE CLOUDS AND SOME INSTABILITY.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
LATER SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT MAY
ACTUALLY BE THE NUDGE THAT GETS THE LAST OF THE COLD POOL CLOUDS OUT
OF OUR AREA. THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IS LESS DEFINED AND SO WE FEATURE JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN SRN NH AND NRN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT DAYTIME
MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS
ALOFT WARMER FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY. TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT 60S BOTH
DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.  SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS PROBABLY DETERIORATE TO
MAINLY MVFR THRESHOLDS...BUT BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
POSSIBLE.  BULK OF THE FOCUS ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  LOW END MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATE IN LOW CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FOG
PATCHES. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
TUESDAY.  LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PROLONGED PERIOD OF MIXED MVFR/IFR...WITH MORE
IFR IN RAIN WEDNESDAY AND MORE MVFR IN SHOWERS THURSDAY. CHANCE OF
THUNDER BOTH DAYS. CHANCE OF 30 KNOT EAST-NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE OUTER CAPE AND MASSACHUSETTS NORTH SHORE
AREAS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL LINGERING AROUND 5 FEET DURING THE
THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE EXPANDED SCA ACCORDINGLY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT IS CANCELLED EARLIER.

TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 25 KTS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES
UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT NIGHT.

TOMORROW...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOWING RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR AN ISO THUNDERSTORM DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST JET WILL BE FEEDING
INTO THE MAINE MID-COAST WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR WATERS. WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS MAY
EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MERRIMACK RIVER AND POSSIBLY CAPE ANN.
WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME VARIABLE THURSDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WEDNESDAY REACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS
WITH 8 TO 10 FEET POSSIBLE FROM CAPE ANN TO MERRIMACK RIVER. BY
THURSDAY THE PERSISTANT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL EXPAND THE AREA OF 8 TO
10 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
BE NEEDED FOR THE EASTERN WATERS AND SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY... AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TOWARD THE
MARITIMES...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE WIND DIRECTION TO OFFSHORE...WE EXPECT SEAS
TO DIMINISH. BUT 5 FOOT SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
THE DAY.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 201747
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
147 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY KEEPING
THE WEATHER QUIET. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. DRY AND
MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

145 PM UPDATE...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AT MID AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MORE
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...BUT LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MUCH MILDER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT. THIS PUTS THE REGION IN MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
BEGIN TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN. ANTICIPATE CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE
KEPT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WARMER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
THANKS TO THE SW FLOW.

SW LLJ WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AND WITHIN THE SW
WAA FLOW...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING HOURS. THE BEST SHOT
WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PERHAPS THE COASTAL
PLAIN...ALIGN WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LLJ. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS AND EVEN THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS ON TUESDAY WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG COMBINED WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LI VALUES BELOW 0. BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE
INCREASING LLJ HAVE INSERTED ISO THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME CUTOFF OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY...AND WILL DOMINATE THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE/LIFT WILL BE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. RIGHT NOW HAVE THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT
THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY.

BECAUSE OF THE RETURN FLOW AND THAT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS IN WARM
AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS A
  COASTAL STORM STALLS SOUTH OF NEW ENG
* LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY BUT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
* MAINLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF THE COASTAL STORM
THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TUE NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
PULLING AWAY FROM NEW ENG FRI/FRI NIGHT. TIGHT CLUSTERING AMONG THE
MODELS ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH STALLS S OF NEW ENG FOR A
TIME AS IT GETS CAPTURED UNDER THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION.  DESPITE
THE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MASS FIELDS THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF QPF DURING THE PERIOD. SO WHILE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT PERIODS OF RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
THU...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE/WHEN HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
FALL. STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING WILL NOT LIKELY BE
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN SNE AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTH.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
POPS/QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL VARIATION IN THESE FIELDS.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE WE EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO AFFECT SNE DURING THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE ON EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL.  MODELS ARE SIGNALING A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED WHICH MAY RESULT IN
LIGHTER PRECIP DURING THIS TIME. HEAVIEST RAIN MAY BE DURING WED
NIGHT THU AS MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS N INTO REGION WITH INCREASING QG
FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION ASSOCD WITH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT.  USING A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE YIELDS RAINFALL OF 1-3
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH.  WINDS DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR FOR SNE AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. A PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS COULD AFFECT
COASTAL NE MA LATE TUE NIGHT/WED BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WITH STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY N OF THE REGION...THE THREAT FOR COASTAL
FLOODING REMAINS LOW AS SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL NOT LIKELY BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.  HOWEVER...THE RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
COASTAL STORM WILL BE EAST OF CAPE COD BY FRI MORNING AND SLOWLY
LIFTING N TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY.  WHILE CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE IMPROVING...SCT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNDER
LINGERING COLD POOL ALOFT WITH MID LEVEL LOW JUST E OF THE REGION.

SAT AND SUN...
LOOKS MAINLY DRY NEXT WEEKEND. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME LATE
SAT/SAT NIGHT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS. SAT WILL  LIKELY BE THE
MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAXES WELL INTO THE 60S...THEN
COOLER SUN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.  SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS PROBABLY DETERIORATE TO
MAINLY MVFR THRESHOLDS...BUT BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
POSSIBLE.  BULK OF THE FOCUS ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  LOW END MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATE IN LOW CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FOG
PATCHES. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
TUESDAY.  LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL WITH AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR AND PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS. LOW PROB OF NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS NE
MA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT/WED.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL LINGERING AROUND 5 FEET DURING THE
THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE EXPANDED SCA ACCORDINGLY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT IS CANCELLED EARLIER.

TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 25 KTS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES
UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT NIGHT.

TOMORROW...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOWING RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR AN ISO THUNDERSTORM DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT AND WED...WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SCA...BUT A PERIOD OF NE
WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LOW PROB WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE OVER WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN. HIGHEST SEAS 6-9 FT LATE TUE NIGHT/WED OVER NE MA
COASTAL WATERS.

WED NIGHT AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  EASTERLY WINDS MAINLY
BELOW SCA WITH LOW PROB OF SCA NE GUSTS OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS.
HIGHEST SEAS 6-8 FT REMAIN OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

FRI...MAINLY NW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH LOW PROB REACHING 25 KT.
SCA SEAS OVER EASTERN MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 201747
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
147 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY KEEPING
THE WEATHER QUIET. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. DRY AND
MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

145 PM UPDATE...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AT MID AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MORE
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...BUT LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MUCH MILDER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT. THIS PUTS THE REGION IN MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
BEGIN TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN. ANTICIPATE CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE
KEPT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WARMER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
THANKS TO THE SW FLOW.

SW LLJ WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AND WITHIN THE SW
WAA FLOW...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING HOURS. THE BEST SHOT
WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PERHAPS THE COASTAL
PLAIN...ALIGN WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LLJ. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS AND EVEN THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS ON TUESDAY WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG COMBINED WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LI VALUES BELOW 0. BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE
INCREASING LLJ HAVE INSERTED ISO THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME CUTOFF OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY...AND WILL DOMINATE THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE/LIFT WILL BE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. RIGHT NOW HAVE THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT
THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY.

BECAUSE OF THE RETURN FLOW AND THAT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS IN WARM
AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS A
  COASTAL STORM STALLS SOUTH OF NEW ENG
* LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY BUT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
* MAINLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF THE COASTAL STORM
THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TUE NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
PULLING AWAY FROM NEW ENG FRI/FRI NIGHT. TIGHT CLUSTERING AMONG THE
MODELS ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH STALLS S OF NEW ENG FOR A
TIME AS IT GETS CAPTURED UNDER THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION.  DESPITE
THE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MASS FIELDS THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF QPF DURING THE PERIOD. SO WHILE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT PERIODS OF RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
THU...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE/WHEN HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
FALL. STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING WILL NOT LIKELY BE
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN SNE AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTH.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
POPS/QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL VARIATION IN THESE FIELDS.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE WE EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO AFFECT SNE DURING THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE ON EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL.  MODELS ARE SIGNALING A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED WHICH MAY RESULT IN
LIGHTER PRECIP DURING THIS TIME. HEAVIEST RAIN MAY BE DURING WED
NIGHT THU AS MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS N INTO REGION WITH INCREASING QG
FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION ASSOCD WITH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT.  USING A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE YIELDS RAINFALL OF 1-3
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH.  WINDS DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR FOR SNE AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. A PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS COULD AFFECT
COASTAL NE MA LATE TUE NIGHT/WED BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WITH STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY N OF THE REGION...THE THREAT FOR COASTAL
FLOODING REMAINS LOW AS SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL NOT LIKELY BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.  HOWEVER...THE RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
COASTAL STORM WILL BE EAST OF CAPE COD BY FRI MORNING AND SLOWLY
LIFTING N TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY.  WHILE CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE IMPROVING...SCT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNDER
LINGERING COLD POOL ALOFT WITH MID LEVEL LOW JUST E OF THE REGION.

SAT AND SUN...
LOOKS MAINLY DRY NEXT WEEKEND. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME LATE
SAT/SAT NIGHT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS. SAT WILL  LIKELY BE THE
MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAXES WELL INTO THE 60S...THEN
COOLER SUN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.  SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS PROBABLY DETERIORATE TO
MAINLY MVFR THRESHOLDS...BUT BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
POSSIBLE.  BULK OF THE FOCUS ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  LOW END MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATE IN LOW CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FOG
PATCHES. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
TUESDAY.  LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL WITH AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR AND PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS. LOW PROB OF NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS NE
MA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT/WED.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL LINGERING AROUND 5 FEET DURING THE
THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE EXPANDED SCA ACCORDINGLY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT IS CANCELLED EARLIER.

TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 25 KTS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES
UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT NIGHT.

TOMORROW...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOWING RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR AN ISO THUNDERSTORM DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT AND WED...WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SCA...BUT A PERIOD OF NE
WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LOW PROB WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE OVER WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN. HIGHEST SEAS 6-9 FT LATE TUE NIGHT/WED OVER NE MA
COASTAL WATERS.

WED NIGHT AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  EASTERLY WINDS MAINLY
BELOW SCA WITH LOW PROB OF SCA NE GUSTS OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS.
HIGHEST SEAS 6-8 FT REMAIN OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

FRI...MAINLY NW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH LOW PROB REACHING 25 KT.
SCA SEAS OVER EASTERN MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 201747
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
147 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY KEEPING
THE WEATHER QUIET. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. DRY AND
MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

145 PM UPDATE...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AT MID AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MORE
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...BUT LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MUCH MILDER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT. THIS PUTS THE REGION IN MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
BEGIN TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN. ANTICIPATE CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE
KEPT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WARMER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
THANKS TO THE SW FLOW.

SW LLJ WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AND WITHIN THE SW
WAA FLOW...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING HOURS. THE BEST SHOT
WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PERHAPS THE COASTAL
PLAIN...ALIGN WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LLJ. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS AND EVEN THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS ON TUESDAY WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG COMBINED WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LI VALUES BELOW 0. BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE
INCREASING LLJ HAVE INSERTED ISO THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME CUTOFF OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY...AND WILL DOMINATE THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE/LIFT WILL BE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. RIGHT NOW HAVE THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT
THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY.

BECAUSE OF THE RETURN FLOW AND THAT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS IN WARM
AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS A
  COASTAL STORM STALLS SOUTH OF NEW ENG
* LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY BUT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
* MAINLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF THE COASTAL STORM
THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TUE NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
PULLING AWAY FROM NEW ENG FRI/FRI NIGHT. TIGHT CLUSTERING AMONG THE
MODELS ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH STALLS S OF NEW ENG FOR A
TIME AS IT GETS CAPTURED UNDER THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION.  DESPITE
THE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MASS FIELDS THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF QPF DURING THE PERIOD. SO WHILE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT PERIODS OF RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
THU...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE/WHEN HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
FALL. STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING WILL NOT LIKELY BE
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN SNE AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTH.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
POPS/QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL VARIATION IN THESE FIELDS.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE WE EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO AFFECT SNE DURING THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE ON EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL.  MODELS ARE SIGNALING A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED WHICH MAY RESULT IN
LIGHTER PRECIP DURING THIS TIME. HEAVIEST RAIN MAY BE DURING WED
NIGHT THU AS MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS N INTO REGION WITH INCREASING QG
FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION ASSOCD WITH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT.  USING A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE YIELDS RAINFALL OF 1-3
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH.  WINDS DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR FOR SNE AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. A PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS COULD AFFECT
COASTAL NE MA LATE TUE NIGHT/WED BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WITH STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY N OF THE REGION...THE THREAT FOR COASTAL
FLOODING REMAINS LOW AS SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL NOT LIKELY BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.  HOWEVER...THE RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
COASTAL STORM WILL BE EAST OF CAPE COD BY FRI MORNING AND SLOWLY
LIFTING N TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY.  WHILE CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE IMPROVING...SCT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNDER
LINGERING COLD POOL ALOFT WITH MID LEVEL LOW JUST E OF THE REGION.

SAT AND SUN...
LOOKS MAINLY DRY NEXT WEEKEND. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME LATE
SAT/SAT NIGHT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS. SAT WILL  LIKELY BE THE
MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAXES WELL INTO THE 60S...THEN
COOLER SUN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.  SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS PROBABLY DETERIORATE TO
MAINLY MVFR THRESHOLDS...BUT BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
POSSIBLE.  BULK OF THE FOCUS ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  LOW END MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATE IN LOW CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FOG
PATCHES. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
TUESDAY.  LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL WITH AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR AND PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS. LOW PROB OF NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS NE
MA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT/WED.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL LINGERING AROUND 5 FEET DURING THE
THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE EXPANDED SCA ACCORDINGLY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT IS CANCELLED EARLIER.

TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 25 KTS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES
UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT NIGHT.

TOMORROW...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOWING RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR AN ISO THUNDERSTORM DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT AND WED...WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SCA...BUT A PERIOD OF NE
WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LOW PROB WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE OVER WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN. HIGHEST SEAS 6-9 FT LATE TUE NIGHT/WED OVER NE MA
COASTAL WATERS.

WED NIGHT AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  EASTERLY WINDS MAINLY
BELOW SCA WITH LOW PROB OF SCA NE GUSTS OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS.
HIGHEST SEAS 6-8 FT REMAIN OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

FRI...MAINLY NW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH LOW PROB REACHING 25 KT.
SCA SEAS OVER EASTERN MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 201747
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
147 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY KEEPING
THE WEATHER QUIET. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. DRY AND
MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

145 PM UPDATE...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AT MID AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MORE
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...BUT LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MUCH MILDER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT. THIS PUTS THE REGION IN MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
BEGIN TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN. ANTICIPATE CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE
KEPT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WARMER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
THANKS TO THE SW FLOW.

SW LLJ WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AND WITHIN THE SW
WAA FLOW...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING HOURS. THE BEST SHOT
WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PERHAPS THE COASTAL
PLAIN...ALIGN WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LLJ. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS AND EVEN THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS ON TUESDAY WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG COMBINED WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LI VALUES BELOW 0. BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE
INCREASING LLJ HAVE INSERTED ISO THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME CUTOFF OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY...AND WILL DOMINATE THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE/LIFT WILL BE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. RIGHT NOW HAVE THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT
THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY.

BECAUSE OF THE RETURN FLOW AND THAT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS IN WARM
AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS A
  COASTAL STORM STALLS SOUTH OF NEW ENG
* LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY BUT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
* MAINLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF THE COASTAL STORM
THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TUE NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
PULLING AWAY FROM NEW ENG FRI/FRI NIGHT. TIGHT CLUSTERING AMONG THE
MODELS ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH STALLS S OF NEW ENG FOR A
TIME AS IT GETS CAPTURED UNDER THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION.  DESPITE
THE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MASS FIELDS THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF QPF DURING THE PERIOD. SO WHILE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT PERIODS OF RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
THU...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE/WHEN HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
FALL. STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING WILL NOT LIKELY BE
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN SNE AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTH.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
POPS/QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL VARIATION IN THESE FIELDS.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE WE EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO AFFECT SNE DURING THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE ON EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL.  MODELS ARE SIGNALING A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED WHICH MAY RESULT IN
LIGHTER PRECIP DURING THIS TIME. HEAVIEST RAIN MAY BE DURING WED
NIGHT THU AS MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS N INTO REGION WITH INCREASING QG
FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION ASSOCD WITH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT.  USING A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE YIELDS RAINFALL OF 1-3
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH.  WINDS DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR FOR SNE AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. A PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS COULD AFFECT
COASTAL NE MA LATE TUE NIGHT/WED BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WITH STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY N OF THE REGION...THE THREAT FOR COASTAL
FLOODING REMAINS LOW AS SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL NOT LIKELY BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.  HOWEVER...THE RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
COASTAL STORM WILL BE EAST OF CAPE COD BY FRI MORNING AND SLOWLY
LIFTING N TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY.  WHILE CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE IMPROVING...SCT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNDER
LINGERING COLD POOL ALOFT WITH MID LEVEL LOW JUST E OF THE REGION.

SAT AND SUN...
LOOKS MAINLY DRY NEXT WEEKEND. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME LATE
SAT/SAT NIGHT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS. SAT WILL  LIKELY BE THE
MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAXES WELL INTO THE 60S...THEN
COOLER SUN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.  SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS PROBABLY DETERIORATE TO
MAINLY MVFR THRESHOLDS...BUT BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
POSSIBLE.  BULK OF THE FOCUS ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  LOW END MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATE IN LOW CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FOG
PATCHES. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
TUESDAY.  LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL WITH AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR AND PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS. LOW PROB OF NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS NE
MA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT/WED.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL LINGERING AROUND 5 FEET DURING THE
THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE EXPANDED SCA ACCORDINGLY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT IS CANCELLED EARLIER.

TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 25 KTS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES
UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT NIGHT.

TOMORROW...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOWING RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR AN ISO THUNDERSTORM DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT AND WED...WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SCA...BUT A PERIOD OF NE
WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LOW PROB WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE OVER WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN. HIGHEST SEAS 6-9 FT LATE TUE NIGHT/WED OVER NE MA
COASTAL WATERS.

WED NIGHT AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  EASTERLY WINDS MAINLY
BELOW SCA WITH LOW PROB OF SCA NE GUSTS OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS.
HIGHEST SEAS 6-8 FT REMAIN OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

FRI...MAINLY NW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH LOW PROB REACHING 25 KT.
SCA SEAS OVER EASTERN MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KGYX 201517
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1117 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1115 AM...UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDS ACROSS THE CWA...BUT
OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SKIES
SHOULD VARY FROM MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY WITH GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING WINDS.

PREVIOUSLY...STUBBORN CLOUD COVER AND A PERSISTENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAVE KEPT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. SOME
SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY STILL DECOUPLE AND SEE TEMPERATURE DROP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. WILL ALLOW FREEZE WARNING TO EXPIRE AT SUNRISE AS
SCHEDULED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE WEAK HIGH MOVES OUT
AND A LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL FINALLY
BEING TO DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH THE WEAK
RIDGING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. TUESDAY THE WARM FRONT AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ON SCHEDULE TUESDAY NIGHT
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE STILL HAS
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST ITS MEMBERS. AFTER MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATED A JOG TO THE NORTH WITH THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND SURFACE LOW...TONIGHTS MODELS ARE NOW DIGGING THE TROUGH
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...SIMILAR TO RUNS LATE LAST WEEK. THE
STRONGER/MORE INTENSE DIGGING SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE
WHEN VIEWING THIS MORNINGS LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS OF
07Z...THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER FAR
WESTERN MICHIGAN AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD.

CYCLOGENESIS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH WOULD ALLOW THE DRY SLOT TO STAY
OFFSHORE UNTIL THURSDAY...THEREBY UPPING OUR STORM TOTALS RAINFALL
FORECASTS. FOR NOW...WITH A PERSISTENT AND MOIST NORTHEAST
FLOW...WE ARE EXPECTING TWO TO THREE INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL OVER
THE REGION...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS UP TO FOUR INCHES...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN.

STEADY PRECIP ENDS ON FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY... WITH MVFR CEILINGS
MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY NIGHT IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION.

LONG TERM...PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR AT
TIMES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
BEGIN TO IMPROVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25KTS TO 30KTS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING... BUT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. EXPECT
SCA TO BE DROPPED AROUND MID DAY... WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THOUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPCOMING COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MIDWEEK. MOST
SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS WELL.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MAINE AND
THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES QPF
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR OR OVER 4 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUN UP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE...ALONG WITH
SPLASH- OVER AND OVERWASH. NEARSHORE WAVES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
10 TO 15 FOOT RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 201517
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1117 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1115 AM...UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDS ACROSS THE CWA...BUT
OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SKIES
SHOULD VARY FROM MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY WITH GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING WINDS.

PREVIOUSLY...STUBBORN CLOUD COVER AND A PERSISTENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAVE KEPT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. SOME
SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY STILL DECOUPLE AND SEE TEMPERATURE DROP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. WILL ALLOW FREEZE WARNING TO EXPIRE AT SUNRISE AS
SCHEDULED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE WEAK HIGH MOVES OUT
AND A LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL FINALLY
BEING TO DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH THE WEAK
RIDGING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. TUESDAY THE WARM FRONT AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ON SCHEDULE TUESDAY NIGHT
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE STILL HAS
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST ITS MEMBERS. AFTER MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATED A JOG TO THE NORTH WITH THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND SURFACE LOW...TONIGHTS MODELS ARE NOW DIGGING THE TROUGH
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...SIMILAR TO RUNS LATE LAST WEEK. THE
STRONGER/MORE INTENSE DIGGING SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE
WHEN VIEWING THIS MORNINGS LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS OF
07Z...THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER FAR
WESTERN MICHIGAN AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD.

CYCLOGENESIS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH WOULD ALLOW THE DRY SLOT TO STAY
OFFSHORE UNTIL THURSDAY...THEREBY UPPING OUR STORM TOTALS RAINFALL
FORECASTS. FOR NOW...WITH A PERSISTENT AND MOIST NORTHEAST
FLOW...WE ARE EXPECTING TWO TO THREE INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL OVER
THE REGION...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS UP TO FOUR INCHES...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN.

STEADY PRECIP ENDS ON FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY... WITH MVFR CEILINGS
MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY NIGHT IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION.

LONG TERM...PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR AT
TIMES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
BEGIN TO IMPROVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25KTS TO 30KTS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING... BUT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. EXPECT
SCA TO BE DROPPED AROUND MID DAY... WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THOUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPCOMING COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MIDWEEK. MOST
SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS WELL.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MAINE AND
THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES QPF
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR OR OVER 4 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUN UP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE...ALONG WITH
SPLASH- OVER AND OVERWASH. NEARSHORE WAVES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
10 TO 15 FOOT RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 201517
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1117 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1115 AM...UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDS ACROSS THE CWA...BUT
OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SKIES
SHOULD VARY FROM MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY WITH GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING WINDS.

PREVIOUSLY...STUBBORN CLOUD COVER AND A PERSISTENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAVE KEPT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. SOME
SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY STILL DECOUPLE AND SEE TEMPERATURE DROP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. WILL ALLOW FREEZE WARNING TO EXPIRE AT SUNRISE AS
SCHEDULED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE WEAK HIGH MOVES OUT
AND A LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL FINALLY
BEING TO DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH THE WEAK
RIDGING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. TUESDAY THE WARM FRONT AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ON SCHEDULE TUESDAY NIGHT
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE STILL HAS
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST ITS MEMBERS. AFTER MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATED A JOG TO THE NORTH WITH THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND SURFACE LOW...TONIGHTS MODELS ARE NOW DIGGING THE TROUGH
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...SIMILAR TO RUNS LATE LAST WEEK. THE
STRONGER/MORE INTENSE DIGGING SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE
WHEN VIEWING THIS MORNINGS LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS OF
07Z...THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER FAR
WESTERN MICHIGAN AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD.

CYCLOGENESIS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH WOULD ALLOW THE DRY SLOT TO STAY
OFFSHORE UNTIL THURSDAY...THEREBY UPPING OUR STORM TOTALS RAINFALL
FORECASTS. FOR NOW...WITH A PERSISTENT AND MOIST NORTHEAST
FLOW...WE ARE EXPECTING TWO TO THREE INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL OVER
THE REGION...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS UP TO FOUR INCHES...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN.

STEADY PRECIP ENDS ON FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY... WITH MVFR CEILINGS
MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY NIGHT IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION.

LONG TERM...PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR AT
TIMES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
BEGIN TO IMPROVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25KTS TO 30KTS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING... BUT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. EXPECT
SCA TO BE DROPPED AROUND MID DAY... WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THOUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPCOMING COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MIDWEEK. MOST
SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS WELL.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MAINE AND
THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES QPF
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR OR OVER 4 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUN UP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE...ALONG WITH
SPLASH- OVER AND OVERWASH. NEARSHORE WAVES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
10 TO 15 FOOT RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 201517
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1117 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1115 AM...UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDS ACROSS THE CWA...BUT
OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SKIES
SHOULD VARY FROM MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY WITH GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING WINDS.

PREVIOUSLY...STUBBORN CLOUD COVER AND A PERSISTENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAVE KEPT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. SOME
SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY STILL DECOUPLE AND SEE TEMPERATURE DROP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. WILL ALLOW FREEZE WARNING TO EXPIRE AT SUNRISE AS
SCHEDULED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE WEAK HIGH MOVES OUT
AND A LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL FINALLY
BEING TO DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH THE WEAK
RIDGING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. TUESDAY THE WARM FRONT AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ON SCHEDULE TUESDAY NIGHT
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE STILL HAS
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST ITS MEMBERS. AFTER MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATED A JOG TO THE NORTH WITH THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND SURFACE LOW...TONIGHTS MODELS ARE NOW DIGGING THE TROUGH
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...SIMILAR TO RUNS LATE LAST WEEK. THE
STRONGER/MORE INTENSE DIGGING SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE
WHEN VIEWING THIS MORNINGS LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS OF
07Z...THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER FAR
WESTERN MICHIGAN AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD.

CYCLOGENESIS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH WOULD ALLOW THE DRY SLOT TO STAY
OFFSHORE UNTIL THURSDAY...THEREBY UPPING OUR STORM TOTALS RAINFALL
FORECASTS. FOR NOW...WITH A PERSISTENT AND MOIST NORTHEAST
FLOW...WE ARE EXPECTING TWO TO THREE INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL OVER
THE REGION...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS UP TO FOUR INCHES...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN.

STEADY PRECIP ENDS ON FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY... WITH MVFR CEILINGS
MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY NIGHT IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION.

LONG TERM...PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR AT
TIMES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
BEGIN TO IMPROVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25KTS TO 30KTS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING... BUT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. EXPECT
SCA TO BE DROPPED AROUND MID DAY... WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THOUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPCOMING COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MIDWEEK. MOST
SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS WELL.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MAINE AND
THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES QPF
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR OR OVER 4 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUN UP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE...ALONG WITH
SPLASH- OVER AND OVERWASH. NEARSHORE WAVES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
10 TO 15 FOOT RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 201330
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
930 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY KEEPING
THE WEATHER QUIET. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. DRY AND
MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

930 AM UPDATE...

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AT MID MORNING ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR A
BATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL MA.  OVERALL...MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SUNSHINE
SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A GRADUAL INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY.

HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.  THE AFTERNOON WILL FEEL CONSIDERABLY MILDER THAN
YESTERDAY GIVEN MUCH LESS WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT. THIS PUTS THE REGION IN MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
BEGIN TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN. ANTICIPATE CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE
KEPT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WARMER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
THANKS TO THE SW FLOW.

SW LLJ WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AND WITHIN THE SW
WAA FLOW...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING HOURS. THE BEST SHOT
WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PERHAPS THE COASTAL
PLAIN...ALIGN WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LLJ. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS AND EVEN THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS ON TUESDAY WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG COMBINED WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LI VALUES BELOW 0. BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE
INCREASING LLJ HAVE INSERTED ISO THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME CUTOFF OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY...AND WILL DOMINATE THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE/LIFT WILL BE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. RIGHT NOW HAVE THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT
THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY.

BECAUSE OF THE RETURN FLOW AND THAT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS IN WARM
AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS A
  COASTAL STORM STALLS SOUTH OF NEW ENG
* LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY BUT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
* MAINLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF THE COASTAL STORM
THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TUE NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
PULLING AWAY FROM NEW ENG FRI/FRI NIGHT. TIGHT CLUSTERING AMONG THE
MODELS ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH STALLS S OF NEW ENG FOR A
TIME AS IT GETS CAPTURED UNDER THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION.  DESPITE
THE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MASS FIELDS THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF QPF DURING THE PERIOD. SO WHILE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT PERIODS OF RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
THU...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE/WHEN HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
FALL. STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING WILL NOT LIKELY BE
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN SNE AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTH.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
POPS/QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL VARIATION IN THESE FIELDS.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE WE EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO AFFECT SNE DURING THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE ON EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL.  MODELS ARE SIGNALING A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED WHICH MAY RESULT IN
LIGHTER PRECIP DURING THIS TIME. HEAVIEST RAIN MAY BE DURING WED
NIGHT THU AS MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS N INTO REGION WITH INCREASING QG
FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION ASSOCD WITH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT.  USING A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE YIELDS RAINFALL OF 1-3
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH.  WINDS DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR FOR SNE AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. A PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS COULD AFFECT
COASTAL NE MA LATE TUE NIGHT/WED BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WITH STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY N OF THE REGION...THE THREAT FOR COASTAL
FLOODING REMAINS LOW AS SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL NOT LIKELY BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.  HOWEVER...THE RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
COASTAL STORM WILL BE EAST OF CAPE COD BY FRI MORNING AND SLOWLY
LIFTING N TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY.  WHILE CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE IMPROVING...SCT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNDER
LINGERING COLD POOL ALOFT WITH MID LEVEL LOW JUST E OF THE REGION.

SAT AND SUN...
LOOKS MAINLY DRY NEXT WEEKEND. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME LATE
SAT/SAT NIGHT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS. SAT WILL  LIKELY BE THE
MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAXES WELL INTO THE 60S...THEN
COOLER SUN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BACKING TO SW. THIN CLOUDS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR
CIGS MOVING NEAR DAY BREAK ACROSS CAPE/ISLAND IN LIGHT RAIN. MVFR
CIGS MAY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY IN
RAIN. LOW CHANCE OF AN ISO THUNDER ACROSS CAPE/ISLAND.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL WITH AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR AND PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS. LOW PROB OF NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS NE
MA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT/WED.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL LINGERING AROUND 5 FEET DURING THE
THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE EXPANDED SCA ACCORDINGLY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT IS CANCELLED EARLIER.

TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 25 KTS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES
UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT NIGHT.

TOMORROW...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOWING RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR AN ISO THUNDERSTORM DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT AND WED...WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SCA...BUT A PERIOD OF NE
WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LOW PROB WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE OVER WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN. HIGHEST SEAS 6-9 FT LATE TUE NIGHT/WED OVER NE MA
COASTAL WATERS.

WED NIGHT AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  EASTERLY WINDS MAINLY
BELOW SCA WITH LOW PROB OF SCA NE GUSTS OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS.
HIGHEST SEAS 6-8 FT REMAIN OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

FRI...MAINLY NW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH LOW PROB REACHING 25 KT.
SCA SEAS OVER EASTERN MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 201330
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
930 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY KEEPING
THE WEATHER QUIET. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. DRY AND
MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

930 AM UPDATE...

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AT MID MORNING ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR A
BATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL MA.  OVERALL...MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SUNSHINE
SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A GRADUAL INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY.

HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.  THE AFTERNOON WILL FEEL CONSIDERABLY MILDER THAN
YESTERDAY GIVEN MUCH LESS WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT. THIS PUTS THE REGION IN MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
BEGIN TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN. ANTICIPATE CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE
KEPT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WARMER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
THANKS TO THE SW FLOW.

SW LLJ WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AND WITHIN THE SW
WAA FLOW...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING HOURS. THE BEST SHOT
WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PERHAPS THE COASTAL
PLAIN...ALIGN WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LLJ. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS AND EVEN THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS ON TUESDAY WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG COMBINED WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LI VALUES BELOW 0. BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE
INCREASING LLJ HAVE INSERTED ISO THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME CUTOFF OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY...AND WILL DOMINATE THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE/LIFT WILL BE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. RIGHT NOW HAVE THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT
THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY.

BECAUSE OF THE RETURN FLOW AND THAT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS IN WARM
AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS A
  COASTAL STORM STALLS SOUTH OF NEW ENG
* LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY BUT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
* MAINLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF THE COASTAL STORM
THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TUE NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
PULLING AWAY FROM NEW ENG FRI/FRI NIGHT. TIGHT CLUSTERING AMONG THE
MODELS ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH STALLS S OF NEW ENG FOR A
TIME AS IT GETS CAPTURED UNDER THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION.  DESPITE
THE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MASS FIELDS THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF QPF DURING THE PERIOD. SO WHILE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT PERIODS OF RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
THU...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE/WHEN HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
FALL. STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING WILL NOT LIKELY BE
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN SNE AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTH.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
POPS/QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL VARIATION IN THESE FIELDS.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE WE EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO AFFECT SNE DURING THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE ON EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL.  MODELS ARE SIGNALING A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED WHICH MAY RESULT IN
LIGHTER PRECIP DURING THIS TIME. HEAVIEST RAIN MAY BE DURING WED
NIGHT THU AS MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS N INTO REGION WITH INCREASING QG
FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION ASSOCD WITH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT.  USING A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE YIELDS RAINFALL OF 1-3
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH.  WINDS DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR FOR SNE AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. A PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS COULD AFFECT
COASTAL NE MA LATE TUE NIGHT/WED BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WITH STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY N OF THE REGION...THE THREAT FOR COASTAL
FLOODING REMAINS LOW AS SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL NOT LIKELY BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.  HOWEVER...THE RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
COASTAL STORM WILL BE EAST OF CAPE COD BY FRI MORNING AND SLOWLY
LIFTING N TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY.  WHILE CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE IMPROVING...SCT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNDER
LINGERING COLD POOL ALOFT WITH MID LEVEL LOW JUST E OF THE REGION.

SAT AND SUN...
LOOKS MAINLY DRY NEXT WEEKEND. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME LATE
SAT/SAT NIGHT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS. SAT WILL  LIKELY BE THE
MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAXES WELL INTO THE 60S...THEN
COOLER SUN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BACKING TO SW. THIN CLOUDS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR
CIGS MOVING NEAR DAY BREAK ACROSS CAPE/ISLAND IN LIGHT RAIN. MVFR
CIGS MAY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY IN
RAIN. LOW CHANCE OF AN ISO THUNDER ACROSS CAPE/ISLAND.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL WITH AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR AND PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS. LOW PROB OF NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS NE
MA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT/WED.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL LINGERING AROUND 5 FEET DURING THE
THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE EXPANDED SCA ACCORDINGLY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT IS CANCELLED EARLIER.

TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 25 KTS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES
UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT NIGHT.

TOMORROW...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOWING RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR AN ISO THUNDERSTORM DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT AND WED...WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SCA...BUT A PERIOD OF NE
WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LOW PROB WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE OVER WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN. HIGHEST SEAS 6-9 FT LATE TUE NIGHT/WED OVER NE MA
COASTAL WATERS.

WED NIGHT AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  EASTERLY WINDS MAINLY
BELOW SCA WITH LOW PROB OF SCA NE GUSTS OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS.
HIGHEST SEAS 6-8 FT REMAIN OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

FRI...MAINLY NW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH LOW PROB REACHING 25 KT.
SCA SEAS OVER EASTERN MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 201107
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
707 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY KEEPING
THE WEATHER QUIET. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. DRY AND
MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
SEVERAL LOCATIONS AT OR BELOW FREEZING THIS MORNING. AFTER A COLD
START TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON. JUST
A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS SNE THIS MORNING WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.
JUST A FEW MODIFICATIONS TO T/TD/SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION WHILE AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THIS ALLOWS FOR
QUIET WEATHER AND TEMPS TO MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING WILL REACH ABOVE 900 MB RESULTING IN
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE NEAR 15 MPH DURING PEAK HEATING.
OTHERWISE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT. THIS PUTS THE REGION IN MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
BEGIN TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN. ANTICIPATE CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE
KEPT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WARMER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
THANKS TO THE SW FLOW.

SW LLJ WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AND WITHIN THE SW
WAA FLOW...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING HOURS. THE BEST SHOT
WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PERHAPS THE COASTAL
PLAIN...ALIGN WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LLJ. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS AND EVEN THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS ON TUESDAY WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG COMBINED WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LI VALUES BELOW 0. BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE
INCREASING LLJ HAVE INSERTED ISO THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME CUTOFF OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY...AND WILL DOMINATE THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE/LIFT WILL BE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. RIGHT NOW HAVE THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT
THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY.

BECAUSE OF THE RETURN FLOW AND THAT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS IN WARM
AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS A
  COASTAL STORM STALLS SOUTH OF NEW ENG
* LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY BUT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
* MAINLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF THE COASTAL STORM
THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TUE NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
PULLING AWAY FROM NEW ENG FRI/FRI NIGHT. TIGHT CLUSTERING AMONG THE
MODELS ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH STALLS S OF NEW ENG FOR A
TIME AS IT GETS CAPTURED UNDER THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION.  DESPITE
THE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MASS FIELDS THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF QPF DURING THE PERIOD. SO WHILE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT PERIODS OF RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
THU...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE/WHEN HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
FALL. STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING WILL NOT LIKELY BE
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN SNE AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTH.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
POPS/QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL VARIATION IN THESE FIELDS.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE WE EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO AFFECT SNE DURING THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE ON EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL.  MODELS ARE SIGNALING A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED WHICH MAY RESULT IN
LIGHTER PRECIP DURING THIS TIME. HEAVIEST RAIN MAY BE DURING WED
NIGHT THU AS MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS N INTO REGION WITH INCREASING QG
FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION ASSOCD WITH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT.  USING A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE YIELDS RAINFALL OF 1-3
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH.  WINDS DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR FOR SNE AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. A PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS COULD AFFECT
COASTAL NE MA LATE TUE NIGHT/WED BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WITH STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY N OF THE REGION...THE THREAT FOR COASTAL
FLOODING REMAINS LOW AS SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL NOT LIKELY BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.  HOWEVER...THE RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
COASTAL STORM WILL BE EAST OF CAPE COD BY FRI MORNING AND SLOWLY
LIFTING N TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY.  WHILE CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE IMPROVING...SCT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNDER
LINGERING COLD POOL ALOFT WITH MID LEVEL LOW JUST E OF THE REGION.

SAT AND SUN...
LOOKS MAINLY DRY NEXT WEEKEND. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME LATE
SAT/SAT NIGHT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS. SAT WILL  LIKELY BE THE
MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAXES WELL INTO THE 60S...THEN
COOLER SUN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BACKING TO SW. THIN CLOUDS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR
CIGS MOVING NEAR DAY BREAK ACROSS CAPE/ISLAND IN LIGHT RAIN. MVFR
CIGS MAY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY IN
RAIN. LOW CHANCE OF AN ISO THUNDER ACROSS CAPE/ISLAND.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL WITH AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR AND PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS. LOW PROB OF NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS NE
MA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT/WED.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL LINGERING AROUND 5 FEET DURING THE
THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE EXPANDED SCA ACCORDINGLY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT IS CANCELLED EARLIER.

TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 25 KTS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES
UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT NIGHT.

TOMORROW...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOWING RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR AN ISO THUNDERSTORM DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT AND WED...WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SCA...BUT A PERIOD OF NE
WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LOW PROB WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE OVER WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN. HIGHEST SEAS 6-9 FT LATE TUE NIGHT/WED OVER NE MA
COASTAL WATERS.

WED NIGHT AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  EASTERLY WINDS MAINLY
BELOW SCA WITH LOW PROB OF SCA NE GUSTS OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS.
HIGHEST SEAS 6-8 FT REMAIN OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

FRI...MAINLY NW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH LOW PROB REACHING 25 KT.
SCA SEAS OVER EASTERN MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007-015-016-
     019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ005-006-
     009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ002-004-005-
     007.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 201107
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
707 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY KEEPING
THE WEATHER QUIET. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. DRY AND
MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
SEVERAL LOCATIONS AT OR BELOW FREEZING THIS MORNING. AFTER A COLD
START TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON. JUST
A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS SNE THIS MORNING WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.
JUST A FEW MODIFICATIONS TO T/TD/SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION WHILE AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THIS ALLOWS FOR
QUIET WEATHER AND TEMPS TO MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING WILL REACH ABOVE 900 MB RESULTING IN
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE NEAR 15 MPH DURING PEAK HEATING.
OTHERWISE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT. THIS PUTS THE REGION IN MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
BEGIN TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN. ANTICIPATE CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE
KEPT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WARMER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
THANKS TO THE SW FLOW.

SW LLJ WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AND WITHIN THE SW
WAA FLOW...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING HOURS. THE BEST SHOT
WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PERHAPS THE COASTAL
PLAIN...ALIGN WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LLJ. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS AND EVEN THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS ON TUESDAY WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG COMBINED WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LI VALUES BELOW 0. BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE
INCREASING LLJ HAVE INSERTED ISO THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME CUTOFF OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY...AND WILL DOMINATE THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE/LIFT WILL BE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. RIGHT NOW HAVE THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT
THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY.

BECAUSE OF THE RETURN FLOW AND THAT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS IN WARM
AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS A
  COASTAL STORM STALLS SOUTH OF NEW ENG
* LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY BUT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
* MAINLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF THE COASTAL STORM
THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TUE NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
PULLING AWAY FROM NEW ENG FRI/FRI NIGHT. TIGHT CLUSTERING AMONG THE
MODELS ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH STALLS S OF NEW ENG FOR A
TIME AS IT GETS CAPTURED UNDER THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION.  DESPITE
THE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MASS FIELDS THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF QPF DURING THE PERIOD. SO WHILE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT PERIODS OF RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
THU...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE/WHEN HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
FALL. STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING WILL NOT LIKELY BE
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN SNE AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTH.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
POPS/QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL VARIATION IN THESE FIELDS.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE WE EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO AFFECT SNE DURING THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE ON EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL.  MODELS ARE SIGNALING A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED WHICH MAY RESULT IN
LIGHTER PRECIP DURING THIS TIME. HEAVIEST RAIN MAY BE DURING WED
NIGHT THU AS MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS N INTO REGION WITH INCREASING QG
FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION ASSOCD WITH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT.  USING A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE YIELDS RAINFALL OF 1-3
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH.  WINDS DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR FOR SNE AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. A PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS COULD AFFECT
COASTAL NE MA LATE TUE NIGHT/WED BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WITH STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY N OF THE REGION...THE THREAT FOR COASTAL
FLOODING REMAINS LOW AS SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL NOT LIKELY BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.  HOWEVER...THE RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
COASTAL STORM WILL BE EAST OF CAPE COD BY FRI MORNING AND SLOWLY
LIFTING N TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY.  WHILE CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE IMPROVING...SCT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNDER
LINGERING COLD POOL ALOFT WITH MID LEVEL LOW JUST E OF THE REGION.

SAT AND SUN...
LOOKS MAINLY DRY NEXT WEEKEND. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME LATE
SAT/SAT NIGHT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS. SAT WILL  LIKELY BE THE
MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAXES WELL INTO THE 60S...THEN
COOLER SUN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BACKING TO SW. THIN CLOUDS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR
CIGS MOVING NEAR DAY BREAK ACROSS CAPE/ISLAND IN LIGHT RAIN. MVFR
CIGS MAY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY IN
RAIN. LOW CHANCE OF AN ISO THUNDER ACROSS CAPE/ISLAND.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL WITH AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR AND PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS. LOW PROB OF NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS NE
MA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT/WED.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL LINGERING AROUND 5 FEET DURING THE
THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE EXPANDED SCA ACCORDINGLY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT IS CANCELLED EARLIER.

TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 25 KTS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES
UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT NIGHT.

TOMORROW...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOWING RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR AN ISO THUNDERSTORM DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT AND WED...WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SCA...BUT A PERIOD OF NE
WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LOW PROB WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE OVER WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN. HIGHEST SEAS 6-9 FT LATE TUE NIGHT/WED OVER NE MA
COASTAL WATERS.

WED NIGHT AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  EASTERLY WINDS MAINLY
BELOW SCA WITH LOW PROB OF SCA NE GUSTS OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS.
HIGHEST SEAS 6-8 FT REMAIN OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

FRI...MAINLY NW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH LOW PROB REACHING 25 KT.
SCA SEAS OVER EASTERN MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007-015-016-
     019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ005-006-
     009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ002-004-005-
     007.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 201107
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
707 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY KEEPING
THE WEATHER QUIET. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. DRY AND
MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
SEVERAL LOCATIONS AT OR BELOW FREEZING THIS MORNING. AFTER A COLD
START TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON. JUST
A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS SNE THIS MORNING WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.
JUST A FEW MODIFICATIONS TO T/TD/SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION WHILE AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THIS ALLOWS FOR
QUIET WEATHER AND TEMPS TO MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING WILL REACH ABOVE 900 MB RESULTING IN
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE NEAR 15 MPH DURING PEAK HEATING.
OTHERWISE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT. THIS PUTS THE REGION IN MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
BEGIN TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN. ANTICIPATE CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE
KEPT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WARMER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
THANKS TO THE SW FLOW.

SW LLJ WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AND WITHIN THE SW
WAA FLOW...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING HOURS. THE BEST SHOT
WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PERHAPS THE COASTAL
PLAIN...ALIGN WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LLJ. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS AND EVEN THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS ON TUESDAY WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG COMBINED WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LI VALUES BELOW 0. BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE
INCREASING LLJ HAVE INSERTED ISO THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME CUTOFF OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY...AND WILL DOMINATE THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE/LIFT WILL BE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. RIGHT NOW HAVE THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT
THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY.

BECAUSE OF THE RETURN FLOW AND THAT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS IN WARM
AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS A
  COASTAL STORM STALLS SOUTH OF NEW ENG
* LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY BUT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
* MAINLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF THE COASTAL STORM
THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TUE NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
PULLING AWAY FROM NEW ENG FRI/FRI NIGHT. TIGHT CLUSTERING AMONG THE
MODELS ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH STALLS S OF NEW ENG FOR A
TIME AS IT GETS CAPTURED UNDER THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION.  DESPITE
THE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MASS FIELDS THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF QPF DURING THE PERIOD. SO WHILE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT PERIODS OF RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
THU...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE/WHEN HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
FALL. STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING WILL NOT LIKELY BE
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN SNE AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTH.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
POPS/QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL VARIATION IN THESE FIELDS.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE WE EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO AFFECT SNE DURING THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE ON EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL.  MODELS ARE SIGNALING A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED WHICH MAY RESULT IN
LIGHTER PRECIP DURING THIS TIME. HEAVIEST RAIN MAY BE DURING WED
NIGHT THU AS MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS N INTO REGION WITH INCREASING QG
FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION ASSOCD WITH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT.  USING A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE YIELDS RAINFALL OF 1-3
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH.  WINDS DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR FOR SNE AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. A PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS COULD AFFECT
COASTAL NE MA LATE TUE NIGHT/WED BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WITH STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY N OF THE REGION...THE THREAT FOR COASTAL
FLOODING REMAINS LOW AS SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL NOT LIKELY BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.  HOWEVER...THE RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
COASTAL STORM WILL BE EAST OF CAPE COD BY FRI MORNING AND SLOWLY
LIFTING N TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY.  WHILE CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE IMPROVING...SCT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNDER
LINGERING COLD POOL ALOFT WITH MID LEVEL LOW JUST E OF THE REGION.

SAT AND SUN...
LOOKS MAINLY DRY NEXT WEEKEND. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME LATE
SAT/SAT NIGHT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS. SAT WILL  LIKELY BE THE
MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAXES WELL INTO THE 60S...THEN
COOLER SUN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BACKING TO SW. THIN CLOUDS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR
CIGS MOVING NEAR DAY BREAK ACROSS CAPE/ISLAND IN LIGHT RAIN. MVFR
CIGS MAY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY IN
RAIN. LOW CHANCE OF AN ISO THUNDER ACROSS CAPE/ISLAND.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL WITH AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR AND PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS. LOW PROB OF NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS NE
MA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT/WED.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL LINGERING AROUND 5 FEET DURING THE
THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE EXPANDED SCA ACCORDINGLY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT IS CANCELLED EARLIER.

TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 25 KTS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES
UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT NIGHT.

TOMORROW...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOWING RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR AN ISO THUNDERSTORM DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT AND WED...WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SCA...BUT A PERIOD OF NE
WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LOW PROB WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE OVER WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN. HIGHEST SEAS 6-9 FT LATE TUE NIGHT/WED OVER NE MA
COASTAL WATERS.

WED NIGHT AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  EASTERLY WINDS MAINLY
BELOW SCA WITH LOW PROB OF SCA NE GUSTS OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS.
HIGHEST SEAS 6-8 FT REMAIN OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

FRI...MAINLY NW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH LOW PROB REACHING 25 KT.
SCA SEAS OVER EASTERN MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007-015-016-
     019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ005-006-
     009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ002-004-005-
     007.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 201107
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
707 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY KEEPING
THE WEATHER QUIET. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. DRY AND
MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
SEVERAL LOCATIONS AT OR BELOW FREEZING THIS MORNING. AFTER A COLD
START TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON. JUST
A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS SNE THIS MORNING WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.
JUST A FEW MODIFICATIONS TO T/TD/SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION WHILE AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THIS ALLOWS FOR
QUIET WEATHER AND TEMPS TO MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING WILL REACH ABOVE 900 MB RESULTING IN
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE NEAR 15 MPH DURING PEAK HEATING.
OTHERWISE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT. THIS PUTS THE REGION IN MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
BEGIN TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN. ANTICIPATE CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE
KEPT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WARMER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
THANKS TO THE SW FLOW.

SW LLJ WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AND WITHIN THE SW
WAA FLOW...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING HOURS. THE BEST SHOT
WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PERHAPS THE COASTAL
PLAIN...ALIGN WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LLJ. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS AND EVEN THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS ON TUESDAY WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG COMBINED WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LI VALUES BELOW 0. BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE
INCREASING LLJ HAVE INSERTED ISO THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME CUTOFF OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY...AND WILL DOMINATE THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE/LIFT WILL BE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. RIGHT NOW HAVE THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT
THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY.

BECAUSE OF THE RETURN FLOW AND THAT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS IN WARM
AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS A
  COASTAL STORM STALLS SOUTH OF NEW ENG
* LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY BUT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
* MAINLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF THE COASTAL STORM
THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TUE NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
PULLING AWAY FROM NEW ENG FRI/FRI NIGHT. TIGHT CLUSTERING AMONG THE
MODELS ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH STALLS S OF NEW ENG FOR A
TIME AS IT GETS CAPTURED UNDER THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION.  DESPITE
THE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MASS FIELDS THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF QPF DURING THE PERIOD. SO WHILE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT PERIODS OF RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
THU...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE/WHEN HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
FALL. STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING WILL NOT LIKELY BE
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN SNE AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTH.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
POPS/QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL VARIATION IN THESE FIELDS.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE WE EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO AFFECT SNE DURING THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE ON EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL.  MODELS ARE SIGNALING A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED WHICH MAY RESULT IN
LIGHTER PRECIP DURING THIS TIME. HEAVIEST RAIN MAY BE DURING WED
NIGHT THU AS MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS N INTO REGION WITH INCREASING QG
FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION ASSOCD WITH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT.  USING A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE YIELDS RAINFALL OF 1-3
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH.  WINDS DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR FOR SNE AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. A PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS COULD AFFECT
COASTAL NE MA LATE TUE NIGHT/WED BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WITH STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY N OF THE REGION...THE THREAT FOR COASTAL
FLOODING REMAINS LOW AS SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL NOT LIKELY BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.  HOWEVER...THE RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
COASTAL STORM WILL BE EAST OF CAPE COD BY FRI MORNING AND SLOWLY
LIFTING N TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY.  WHILE CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE IMPROVING...SCT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNDER
LINGERING COLD POOL ALOFT WITH MID LEVEL LOW JUST E OF THE REGION.

SAT AND SUN...
LOOKS MAINLY DRY NEXT WEEKEND. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME LATE
SAT/SAT NIGHT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS. SAT WILL  LIKELY BE THE
MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAXES WELL INTO THE 60S...THEN
COOLER SUN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BACKING TO SW. THIN CLOUDS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR
CIGS MOVING NEAR DAY BREAK ACROSS CAPE/ISLAND IN LIGHT RAIN. MVFR
CIGS MAY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY IN
RAIN. LOW CHANCE OF AN ISO THUNDER ACROSS CAPE/ISLAND.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL WITH AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR AND PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS. LOW PROB OF NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS NE
MA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT/WED.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL LINGERING AROUND 5 FEET DURING THE
THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE EXPANDED SCA ACCORDINGLY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT IS CANCELLED EARLIER.

TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 25 KTS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES
UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT NIGHT.

TOMORROW...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOWING RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR AN ISO THUNDERSTORM DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT AND WED...WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SCA...BUT A PERIOD OF NE
WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LOW PROB WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE OVER WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN. HIGHEST SEAS 6-9 FT LATE TUE NIGHT/WED OVER NE MA
COASTAL WATERS.

WED NIGHT AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  EASTERLY WINDS MAINLY
BELOW SCA WITH LOW PROB OF SCA NE GUSTS OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS.
HIGHEST SEAS 6-8 FT REMAIN OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

FRI...MAINLY NW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH LOW PROB REACHING 25 KT.
SCA SEAS OVER EASTERN MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007-015-016-
     019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ005-006-
     009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ002-004-005-
     007.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KGYX 201048
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
648 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7AM UPDATE... ENDED FREEZE WARNING AND UPDATED FOR CURRENT OBS.

STUBBORN CLOUD COVER AND A PERSISTENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAVE KEPT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. SOME
SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY STILL DECOUPLE AND SEE TEMPERATURE DROP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. WILL ALLOW FREEZE WARNING TO EXPIRE AT SUNRISE AS
SCHEDULED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE WEAK HIGH MOVES OUT
AND A LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL FINALLY
BEING TO DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH THE WEAK
RIDGING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. TUESDAY THE WARM FRONT AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EAST COAST CYCLONGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ON SCHEDULE TUESDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE STILL
HAS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST ITS MEMBERS. AFTER MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATED A JOG TO THE NORTH WITH THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND SURFACE LOW...TONIGHTS MODELS ARE NOW DIGGING THE TROUGH
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...SIMILAR TO RUNS LATE LAST WEEK. THE
STRONGER/MORE INTENSE DIGGING SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE
WHEN VIEWING THIS MORNINGS LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS OF
07Z...THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER FAR
WESTERN MICHIGAN AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD.

CYCLOGENESIS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH WOULD ALLOW THE DRY SLOT TO STAY
OFFSHORE UNTIL THURSDAY...THEREBY UPPING OUR STORM TOTALS RAINFALL
FORECASTS. FOR NOW...WITH A PERSISTENT AND MOIST NORTHEAST
FLOW...WE ARE EXPECTING TWO TO THREE INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL OVER
THE REGION...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS UP TO FOUR INCHES...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN.

STEADY PRECIP ENDS ON FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY... WITH MVFR CIELINGS
MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY NIGHT IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION.

LONG TERM...PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR AT
TIMES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
BEGIN TO IMPROVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25KTS TO 30KTS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING... BUT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. EXPECT
SCA TO BE DROPPED AROUND MID DAY... WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THOUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPCOMING COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MIDWEEK. MOST
SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS WELL.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MAINE AND
THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES QPF
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR OR OVER 4 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUNUP TOOLS INDICATING SOME
BEACH EROSION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE...ALONG WITH SPLASH-
OVER AND OVERWASH. NEARSHORE WAVES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15
FOOT RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 201048
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
648 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7AM UPDATE... ENDED FREEZE WARNING AND UPDATED FOR CURRENT OBS.

STUBBORN CLOUD COVER AND A PERSISTENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAVE KEPT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. SOME
SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY STILL DECOUPLE AND SEE TEMPERATURE DROP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. WILL ALLOW FREEZE WARNING TO EXPIRE AT SUNRISE AS
SCHEDULED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE WEAK HIGH MOVES OUT
AND A LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL FINALLY
BEING TO DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH THE WEAK
RIDGING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. TUESDAY THE WARM FRONT AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EAST COAST CYCLONGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ON SCHEDULE TUESDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE STILL
HAS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST ITS MEMBERS. AFTER MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATED A JOG TO THE NORTH WITH THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND SURFACE LOW...TONIGHTS MODELS ARE NOW DIGGING THE TROUGH
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...SIMILAR TO RUNS LATE LAST WEEK. THE
STRONGER/MORE INTENSE DIGGING SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE
WHEN VIEWING THIS MORNINGS LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS OF
07Z...THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER FAR
WESTERN MICHIGAN AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD.

CYCLOGENESIS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH WOULD ALLOW THE DRY SLOT TO STAY
OFFSHORE UNTIL THURSDAY...THEREBY UPPING OUR STORM TOTALS RAINFALL
FORECASTS. FOR NOW...WITH A PERSISTENT AND MOIST NORTHEAST
FLOW...WE ARE EXPECTING TWO TO THREE INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL OVER
THE REGION...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS UP TO FOUR INCHES...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN.

STEADY PRECIP ENDS ON FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY... WITH MVFR CIELINGS
MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY NIGHT IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION.

LONG TERM...PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR AT
TIMES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
BEGIN TO IMPROVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25KTS TO 30KTS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING... BUT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. EXPECT
SCA TO BE DROPPED AROUND MID DAY... WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THOUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPCOMING COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MIDWEEK. MOST
SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS WELL.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MAINE AND
THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES QPF
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR OR OVER 4 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUNUP TOOLS INDICATING SOME
BEACH EROSION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE...ALONG WITH SPLASH-
OVER AND OVERWASH. NEARSHORE WAVES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15
FOOT RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 200819
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
419 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY KEEPING
THE WEATHER QUIET. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. DRY AND
MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

THICK CIRRUS HAS MOVED OVER THE REGION AS OF 400 AM. THIS HAS
LIMITED SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE INTERIOR ESP ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MASS. THESE CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY FILTER IN AND OUT OF
THE REGION ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP..AS NOTICED ACROSS CT. PLUS
WITH  HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY QUICKLY. SEVERAL SITES ACROSS WINDHAM
AND TOLLAND COUNTIES IN CT HAVE DROPPED BELOW 32F. WHERE MANY OTHER
SITES ARE AT OR NEAR FREEZING SO WILL CONTINUE TO FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES FOR THIS MORNING AS TEMPS MAY DROP ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES
BETWEEN NOW AND DAWN.

TODAY...

WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION WHILE AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THIS ALLOWS FOR QUIET
WEATHER AND TEMPS TO MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.  BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW MIXING WILL REACH ABOVE 900 MB RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE NEAR 15 MPH DURING PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT. THIS PUTS THE REGION IN MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
BEGIN TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN. ANTICIPATE CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE
KEPT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WARMER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
THANKS TO THE SW FLOW.

SW LLJ WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AND WITHIN THE SW
WAA FLOW...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING HOURS. THE BEST SHOT
WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PERHAPS THE COASTAL
PLAIN...ALIGN WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LLJ. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS AND EVEN THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS ON TUESDAY WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG COMBINED WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LI VALUES BELOW 0. BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE
INCREASING LLJ HAVE INSERTED ISO THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME CUTOFF OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY...AND WILL DOMINATE THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE/LIFT WILL BE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. RIGHT NOW HAVE THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT
THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY.

BECAUSE OF THE RETURN FLOW AND THAT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS IN WARM
AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS A
  COASTAL STORM STALLS SOUTH OF NEW ENG
* LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY BUT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
* MAINLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF THE COASTAL STORM
THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TUE NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
PULLING AWAY FROM NEW ENG FRI/FRI NIGHT. TIGHT CLUSTERING AMONG THE
MODELS ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH STALLS S OF NEW ENG FOR A
TIME AS IT GETS CAPTURED UNDER THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION.  DESPITE
THE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MASS FIELDS THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF QPF DURING THE PERIOD. SO WHILE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT PERIODS OF RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
THU...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE/WHEN HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
FALL. STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING WILL NOT LIKELY BE
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN SNE AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTH.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
POPS/QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL VARIATION IN THESE FIELDS.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE WE EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO AFFECT SNE DURING THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE ON EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL.  MODELS ARE SIGNALING A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED WHICH MAY RESULT IN
LIGHTER PRECIP DURING THIS TIME. HEAVIEST RAIN MAY BE DURING WED
NIGHT THU AS MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS N INTO REGION WITH INCREASING QG
FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION ASSOCD WITH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT.  USING A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE YIELDS RAINFALL OF 1-3
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH.  WINDS DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR FOR SNE AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. A PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS COULD AFFECT
COASTAL NE MA LATE TUE NIGHT/WED BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WITH STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY N OF THE REGION...THE THREAT FOR COASTAL
FLOODING REMAINS LOW AS SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL NOT LIKELY BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.  HOWEVER...THE RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
COASTAL STORM WILL BE EAST OF CAPE COD BY FRI MORNING AND SLOWLY
LIFTING N TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY.  WHILE CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE IMPROVING...SCT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNDER
LINGERING COLD POOL ALOFT WITH MID LEVEL LOW JUST E OF THE REGION.

SAT AND SUN...
LOOKS MAINLY DRY NEXT WEEKEND. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME LATE
SAT/SAT NIGHT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS. SAT WILL  LIKELY BE THE
MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAXES WELL INTO THE 60S...THEN
COOLER SUN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...VFR. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

AFTER 12Z...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BACKING TO SW. THIN CLOUDS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR
CIGS MOVING NEAR DAY BREAK ACROSS CAPE/ISLAND IN LIGHT RAIN. MVFR
CIGS MAY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY IN
RAIN. LOW CHANCE OF AN ISO THUNDER ACROSS CAPE/ISLAND.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL WITH AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR AND PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS. LOW PROB OF NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS NE
MA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT/WED.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL LINGERING AROUND 5 FEET DURING THE
THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE EXPANDED SCA ACCORDINGLY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT IS CANCELLED EARLIER.

TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 25 KTS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES
UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT NIGHT.

TOMORROW...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOWING RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR AN ISO THUNDERSTORM DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT AND WED...WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SCA...BUT A PERIOD OF NE
WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LOW PROB WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE OVER WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN. HIGHEST SEAS 6-9 FT LATE TUE NIGHT/WED OVER NE MA
COASTAL WATERS.

WED NIGHT AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  EASTERLY WINDS MAINLY
BELOW SCA WITH LOW PROB OF SCA NE GUSTS OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS.
HIGHEST SEAS 6-8 FT REMAIN OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

FRI...MAINLY NW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH LOW PROB REACHING 25 KT.
SCA SEAS OVER EASTERN MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007-015-016-
     019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ005-006-
     009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ002-004-005-
     007.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 200819
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
419 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY KEEPING
THE WEATHER QUIET. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. DRY AND
MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

THICK CIRRUS HAS MOVED OVER THE REGION AS OF 400 AM. THIS HAS
LIMITED SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE INTERIOR ESP ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MASS. THESE CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY FILTER IN AND OUT OF
THE REGION ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP..AS NOTICED ACROSS CT. PLUS
WITH  HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY QUICKLY. SEVERAL SITES ACROSS WINDHAM
AND TOLLAND COUNTIES IN CT HAVE DROPPED BELOW 32F. WHERE MANY OTHER
SITES ARE AT OR NEAR FREEZING SO WILL CONTINUE TO FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES FOR THIS MORNING AS TEMPS MAY DROP ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES
BETWEEN NOW AND DAWN.

TODAY...

WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION WHILE AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THIS ALLOWS FOR QUIET
WEATHER AND TEMPS TO MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.  BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW MIXING WILL REACH ABOVE 900 MB RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE NEAR 15 MPH DURING PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT. THIS PUTS THE REGION IN MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
BEGIN TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN. ANTICIPATE CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE
KEPT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WARMER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
THANKS TO THE SW FLOW.

SW LLJ WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AND WITHIN THE SW
WAA FLOW...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING HOURS. THE BEST SHOT
WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PERHAPS THE COASTAL
PLAIN...ALIGN WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LLJ. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS AND EVEN THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS ON TUESDAY WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG COMBINED WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LI VALUES BELOW 0. BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE
INCREASING LLJ HAVE INSERTED ISO THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME CUTOFF OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY...AND WILL DOMINATE THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE/LIFT WILL BE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. RIGHT NOW HAVE THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT
THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY.

BECAUSE OF THE RETURN FLOW AND THAT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS IN WARM
AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS A
  COASTAL STORM STALLS SOUTH OF NEW ENG
* LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY BUT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
* MAINLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF THE COASTAL STORM
THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TUE NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
PULLING AWAY FROM NEW ENG FRI/FRI NIGHT. TIGHT CLUSTERING AMONG THE
MODELS ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH STALLS S OF NEW ENG FOR A
TIME AS IT GETS CAPTURED UNDER THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION.  DESPITE
THE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MASS FIELDS THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF QPF DURING THE PERIOD. SO WHILE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT PERIODS OF RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
THU...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE/WHEN HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
FALL. STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING WILL NOT LIKELY BE
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN SNE AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTH.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
POPS/QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL VARIATION IN THESE FIELDS.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE WE EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO AFFECT SNE DURING THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE ON EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL.  MODELS ARE SIGNALING A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED WHICH MAY RESULT IN
LIGHTER PRECIP DURING THIS TIME. HEAVIEST RAIN MAY BE DURING WED
NIGHT THU AS MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS N INTO REGION WITH INCREASING QG
FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION ASSOCD WITH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT.  USING A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE YIELDS RAINFALL OF 1-3
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH.  WINDS DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR FOR SNE AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. A PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS COULD AFFECT
COASTAL NE MA LATE TUE NIGHT/WED BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WITH STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY N OF THE REGION...THE THREAT FOR COASTAL
FLOODING REMAINS LOW AS SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL NOT LIKELY BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.  HOWEVER...THE RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
COASTAL STORM WILL BE EAST OF CAPE COD BY FRI MORNING AND SLOWLY
LIFTING N TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY.  WHILE CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE IMPROVING...SCT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNDER
LINGERING COLD POOL ALOFT WITH MID LEVEL LOW JUST E OF THE REGION.

SAT AND SUN...
LOOKS MAINLY DRY NEXT WEEKEND. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME LATE
SAT/SAT NIGHT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS. SAT WILL  LIKELY BE THE
MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAXES WELL INTO THE 60S...THEN
COOLER SUN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...VFR. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

AFTER 12Z...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BACKING TO SW. THIN CLOUDS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR
CIGS MOVING NEAR DAY BREAK ACROSS CAPE/ISLAND IN LIGHT RAIN. MVFR
CIGS MAY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY IN
RAIN. LOW CHANCE OF AN ISO THUNDER ACROSS CAPE/ISLAND.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL WITH AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR AND PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS. LOW PROB OF NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS NE
MA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT/WED.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL LINGERING AROUND 5 FEET DURING THE
THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE EXPANDED SCA ACCORDINGLY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT IS CANCELLED EARLIER.

TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 25 KTS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES
UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT NIGHT.

TOMORROW...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOWING RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR AN ISO THUNDERSTORM DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT AND WED...WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SCA...BUT A PERIOD OF NE
WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LOW PROB WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE OVER WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN. HIGHEST SEAS 6-9 FT LATE TUE NIGHT/WED OVER NE MA
COASTAL WATERS.

WED NIGHT AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  EASTERLY WINDS MAINLY
BELOW SCA WITH LOW PROB OF SCA NE GUSTS OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS.
HIGHEST SEAS 6-8 FT REMAIN OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

FRI...MAINLY NW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH LOW PROB REACHING 25 KT.
SCA SEAS OVER EASTERN MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007-015-016-
     019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ005-006-
     009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ002-004-005-
     007.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KGYX 200800
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
400 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STUBBORN CLOUD COVER AND A PERSISTENT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAVE KEPT
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY
STILL DECOUPLE AND SEE TEMPERATURE DROP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WILL ALLOW
FREEZE WARNING TO EXPIRE AT SUNRISE AS SCHEDULED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE WEAK HIGH MOVES OUT
AND A LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL FINALLY
BEING TO DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH THE WEAK
RIDGING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. TUESDAY THE WARM FRONT AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EAST COAST CYCLONGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ON SCHEDULE TUESDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE STILL
HAS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST ITS MEMBERS. AFTER MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATED A JOG TO THE NORTH WITH THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND SURFACE LOW...TONIGHTS MODELS ARE NOW DIGGING THE TROUGH
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...SIMILAR TO RUNS LATE LAST WEEK. THE
STRONGER/MORE INTENSE DIGGING SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE
WHEN VIEWING THIS MORNINGS LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS OF
07Z...THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER FAR
WESTERN MICHIGAN AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD.

CYCLOGENESIS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH WOULD ALLOW THE DRY SLOT TO STAY
OFFSHORE UNTIL THURSDAY...THEREBY UPPING OUR STORM TOTALS RAINFALL
FORECASTS. FOR NOW...WITH A PERSISTENT AND MOIST NORTHEAST
FLOW...WE ARE EXPECTING TWO TO THREE INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL OVER
THE REGION...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS UP TO FOUR INCHES...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN.

COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUNUP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE...ALONG WITH
SPLASH-OVER AND OVERWASH. NEARSHORE WAVES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 10
TO 15 FOOT RANGE.

STEADY PRECIP ENDS ON FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

HYDRO...MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MIDWEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MAINE
AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR OR OVER 4 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY... WITH MVFR CIELINGS
MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY NIGHT IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION.

LONG TERM...PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR AT
TIMES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
BEGIN TO IMPROVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25KTS TO 30KTS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING... BUT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. EXPECT
SCA TO BE DROPPED AROUND MID DAY... WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THOUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPCOMING COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 200800
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
400 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STUBBORN CLOUD COVER AND A PERSISTENT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAVE KEPT
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY
STILL DECOUPLE AND SEE TEMPERATURE DROP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WILL ALLOW
FREEZE WARNING TO EXPIRE AT SUNRISE AS SCHEDULED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE WEAK HIGH MOVES OUT
AND A LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL FINALLY
BEING TO DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH THE WEAK
RIDGING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. TUESDAY THE WARM FRONT AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EAST COAST CYCLONGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ON SCHEDULE TUESDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE STILL
HAS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST ITS MEMBERS. AFTER MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATED A JOG TO THE NORTH WITH THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND SURFACE LOW...TONIGHTS MODELS ARE NOW DIGGING THE TROUGH
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...SIMILAR TO RUNS LATE LAST WEEK. THE
STRONGER/MORE INTENSE DIGGING SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE
WHEN VIEWING THIS MORNINGS LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS OF
07Z...THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER FAR
WESTERN MICHIGAN AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD.

CYCLOGENESIS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH WOULD ALLOW THE DRY SLOT TO STAY
OFFSHORE UNTIL THURSDAY...THEREBY UPPING OUR STORM TOTALS RAINFALL
FORECASTS. FOR NOW...WITH A PERSISTENT AND MOIST NORTHEAST
FLOW...WE ARE EXPECTING TWO TO THREE INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL OVER
THE REGION...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS UP TO FOUR INCHES...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN.

COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUNUP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE...ALONG WITH
SPLASH-OVER AND OVERWASH. NEARSHORE WAVES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 10
TO 15 FOOT RANGE.

STEADY PRECIP ENDS ON FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

HYDRO...MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MIDWEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MAINE
AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR OR OVER 4 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY... WITH MVFR CIELINGS
MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY NIGHT IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION.

LONG TERM...PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR AT
TIMES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
BEGIN TO IMPROVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25KTS TO 30KTS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING... BUT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. EXPECT
SCA TO BE DROPPED AROUND MID DAY... WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THOUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPCOMING COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 200350
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1150 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE: ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT AS CLOUDS AND WINDS
REMAIN IN PLACE. DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN REACHING BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COAST... BUT IT WONT TAKE LONG FOR TEMPS TO
FALL UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND SO HAVE LEFT FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE.

9 PM UPDATE: CLOUDS AND ENOUGH WIND HAVE KEPT TEMPS FROM FALLING
OFF TOO QUICKLY. LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS LIGHTEN AND SKIES
PARTIALLY CLEAR TEMPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO FALL TO FCST LOWS. FREEZE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

PREV DISC:
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ABUNDANT UPSTREAM MOISTURE AND
ROBUST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES RIGHT DOWN TO THE COAST WHERE FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN POSTED. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...NORTHERN ZONES WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SEND HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
SHOULD STILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND IN THE 40S NORTH.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK OVER-RUNNING AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN WESTERN ZONES MONDAY
NIGHT BUT THESE SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE THE UPPER LOW WHICH CUTS OFF OVER THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
AND SLOWLY SPINS OVER THE AREA BEFORE PULLING OUT ON FRIDAY. FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE COMPUTER MODELS THAT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY... DRIFTING
TOWARD CAPE COD WEDNESDAY... THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY... AND
NOVA SCOTIA BY FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE A PRETTY GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FLOWING NORTHWARD... WITH LIFT FROM THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAUSING ALL THAT MOISTURE TO BE DEPOSITED AS
RAIN OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RAIN COULD BEGIN AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY AS BROAD LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW COULD BRING
SHOWERS. BUT THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH RAIN CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. WITH LOW
PRESSURE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY THERE SHOULD BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT.

OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD A TOTAL OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED. IT IS STILL HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL AS PINPOINTING WHERE THE RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP IN A CUT
OFF LOW TYPE SCENARIO LIKE THIS IS FAIRLY DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT.
BUT IT APPEARS THAT MAINE MIGHT BE HIT A BIT HARDER THAN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH AREAS FROM PORTLAND NORTHWARD SEEING THE MOST RAIN.
WITH THIS MUCH RAIN FORECAST... FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY.
ALTHOUGH RAIN RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME... THE
DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO CAUSE RIVER
FLOODING AS STREAMS AND RIVERS SWELL FROM THE PROLONGED RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL FOR HIGHS BUT WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... CLOUD COVER...
AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS BEGIN DETERIORATING ON TUESDAY TO MVFR/IFR
IN RAIN. SHOULD SEE IFR/LIFR COMMONPLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE. NORTH/WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONDITIONS
MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS MAY KEEP CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND TRACKS SLOWLY TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE GULF OF MAINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. WINDS
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE IN THE HIGH END OF THE ADVISORY RANGE TO LOW
END GALE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN PRODUCING 10 FT WAVES.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY FRIDAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 200350
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1150 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE: ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT AS CLOUDS AND WINDS
REMAIN IN PLACE. DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN REACHING BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COAST... BUT IT WONT TAKE LONG FOR TEMPS TO
FALL UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND SO HAVE LEFT FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE.

9 PM UPDATE: CLOUDS AND ENOUGH WIND HAVE KEPT TEMPS FROM FALLING
OFF TOO QUICKLY. LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS LIGHTEN AND SKIES
PARTIALLY CLEAR TEMPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO FALL TO FCST LOWS. FREEZE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

PREV DISC:
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ABUNDANT UPSTREAM MOISTURE AND
ROBUST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES RIGHT DOWN TO THE COAST WHERE FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN POSTED. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...NORTHERN ZONES WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SEND HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
SHOULD STILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND IN THE 40S NORTH.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK OVER-RUNNING AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN WESTERN ZONES MONDAY
NIGHT BUT THESE SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE THE UPPER LOW WHICH CUTS OFF OVER THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
AND SLOWLY SPINS OVER THE AREA BEFORE PULLING OUT ON FRIDAY. FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE COMPUTER MODELS THAT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY... DRIFTING
TOWARD CAPE COD WEDNESDAY... THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY... AND
NOVA SCOTIA BY FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE A PRETTY GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FLOWING NORTHWARD... WITH LIFT FROM THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAUSING ALL THAT MOISTURE TO BE DEPOSITED AS
RAIN OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RAIN COULD BEGIN AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY AS BROAD LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW COULD BRING
SHOWERS. BUT THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH RAIN CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. WITH LOW
PRESSURE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY THERE SHOULD BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT.

OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD A TOTAL OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED. IT IS STILL HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL AS PINPOINTING WHERE THE RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP IN A CUT
OFF LOW TYPE SCENARIO LIKE THIS IS FAIRLY DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT.
BUT IT APPEARS THAT MAINE MIGHT BE HIT A BIT HARDER THAN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH AREAS FROM PORTLAND NORTHWARD SEEING THE MOST RAIN.
WITH THIS MUCH RAIN FORECAST... FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY.
ALTHOUGH RAIN RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME... THE
DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO CAUSE RIVER
FLOODING AS STREAMS AND RIVERS SWELL FROM THE PROLONGED RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL FOR HIGHS BUT WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... CLOUD COVER...
AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS BEGIN DETERIORATING ON TUESDAY TO MVFR/IFR
IN RAIN. SHOULD SEE IFR/LIFR COMMONPLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE. NORTH/WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONDITIONS
MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS MAY KEEP CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND TRACKS SLOWLY TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE GULF OF MAINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. WINDS
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE IN THE HIGH END OF THE ADVISORY RANGE TO LOW
END GALE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN PRODUCING 10 FT WAVES.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY FRIDAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 200212
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1012 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SLOWLY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE IN UPSTATE NY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL RELATIVELY TIGHT
FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM SO WIND GUSTS ARE STILL UP FOR PORTIONS OF
THE REGION...ESP HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONG CAA COMBINED WITH THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS WILL KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS GUSTY AS WELL.
THIS WILL LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING ASPECT.

UPSTREAM...HIGH CIRRUS IS MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY IN CONJUCTION
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. THESE CLOUDS WILL MAKE THERE WAY INTO
WESTERN CT AND MA. BIGGEST QUESTION IS THERE THICKNESS AND HOW/IF
THEY WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THE AIRMASS
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT WE WILL STILL SEE FREEZING TEMPS AFTER
THE WINDS DECOUPLE IN A FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED FOR THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVALENT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH AT LEAST THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN APPEAR TO BE THE
  PRIMARY THREAT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
  TUE NIGHT AND WED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NE MASS COAST.
* THE LOW LOOKS TO PUSH SLOWLY NE DURING THU...THOUGH INCLEMENT
  WEATHER MAY LINGER INTO FRI AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY.
* EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH MAY SEE A FEW
  SHOWERS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN AS COLD FRONT PASSES.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL 12Z OP MODELS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLC STATES DURING MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. BY THE BEGINNING OF
THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER LOW ALREADY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...PUSHING OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA COASTLINE BY MID WEEK.
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE FEATURE FORMS AND EVENTUALLY
SETS UP SHOP. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE DEVELOPING STRONG E-NE LOW
LEVEL JET AND HOW CLOSE THIS WILL COME TO THE E COAST...OR IF IT
REMAINS N OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW MEANDER THROUGH LATE THU...THEN LOOKS TO
SLOWLY EXIT TO NOVA SCOTIA...THOUGH STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES NOTED
ON OPERATIONAL MODELS. GENERAL SIGNAL ON DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS SIGNALING IMPROVED CONDITIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THURSDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHERE HIGHER TIMING
UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AS IT SHIFTS SE
OUT THE EASTERN LAKES EARLY TUE. QUICKLY DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT...WHILE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO FORM TUE
NIGHT SOMEWHERE OFF THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST. AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND FROM E-W ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING BAND OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL OFFSHORE...BUT QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER SOME OF
THIS WILL WORK INLAND. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER PRECIP MAKE IT INTO NE
MA/S CENTRAL NH OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.

QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT STRONGER E-NE WINDS THAT MAY TRY TO WORK
ONSHORE WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKING AROUND THE DEVELOP
CUTOFF UPPER LOW. AT THIS POINT...STILL LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN LOW /AROUND 2-3C/KM/
BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WORK DOWN WITH ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL
TUE NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NE COASTAL MA.

HIGHS ON TUE WILL MAKE IT TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65 ALONG THE
COAST...BUT ONLY THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
EXACT TIMING AND STORM IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THOUGH DOES LOOK
LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. USING A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...QPF TOTALS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
LOOK TO BE A BIT LESS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY AROUND
1.25 INCHES ON THE S COAST RANGING UP TO 1.75 TO AROUND 2 INCHES
ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH. QPF COULD INCREASE IF HEAVIER RAIN BANDS
MOVE ACROSS...THOUGH. EXPECT STEADY RAIN FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY
HEAD NE WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE STRONG WIND THREAT TO REMAIN N OF THE
REGION...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OR SO
ACROSS NE MA INTO S CENTRAL NH DEPENDING UPON POSITION OF JET AXIS
DURING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS PUSHING N OF THE REGION...THREAT FOR
COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS LOW. SEAS DO BUILD OFF THE E MA COAST AND
COULD SEND SOME HIGHER SWELLS TOWARD THE SHORE BY WED/THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL HIGH WIND AXIS TO SEE IF IT SHIFTS
FURTHER S.  WITH INCREASING SWELLS...RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH THE WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SURFACE LOW DEPART
DURING FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING ON THIS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKS TO PUSH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON BACK SIDE INTO
FRI NIGHT ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL NH AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
PUSHES E. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FRI.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS TO BE A DRY SEASONABLE WEEKEND AS NW WINDS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT TAKE OVER. SOME QUESTION AS TO APPROACH OF FAST MOVING
H5 SHORT WAVE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY CROSSING
THE REGION SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AT SURFACE...FOR
NOW...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/N MA AS THE FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 6Z...LEFTOVER SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-6KFT SHOULD BECOME SKC.
NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG IMMEDIATE E COAST AND ACROSS
THE CT VALLEY...DIMINISHING BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

AFTER 06Z...VFR. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS.
LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BACKING TO SW. HIGH THIN CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM W.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL AS CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN DURING TUE...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. LOW PROB OF E-NE WIND GUSTS
REACHING 20-25 KT ACROSS NE MA COAST TUE NIGHT/WED. CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE OVER WESTERN AREAS THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY MIDDAY. ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL
NH...MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WITH A DIMINISHING
TREND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO JUST THE OUTER WATERS LATE AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET
DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE BUT REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO E-SE BY
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT E-NE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS N OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. LOW PROB OF GUSTS TO 30 KT
OR EVEN TO GALE FORCE LATE THU NIGHT AND WED. SEAS WILL BUILD ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS TO 5-8 FT BY EARLY WED...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS ON THE FAR OUTER WATERS...THEN UP TO 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS WED. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WED NIGHT THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG
WILL REDUCE VSBY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW ON THU BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
MAY SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING FRI. SEAS REMAIN HIGH
ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE THU
NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-
     022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ005-006-009>014-
     017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 200212
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1012 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SLOWLY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE IN UPSTATE NY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL RELATIVELY TIGHT
FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM SO WIND GUSTS ARE STILL UP FOR PORTIONS OF
THE REGION...ESP HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONG CAA COMBINED WITH THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS WILL KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS GUSTY AS WELL.
THIS WILL LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING ASPECT.

UPSTREAM...HIGH CIRRUS IS MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY IN CONJUCTION
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. THESE CLOUDS WILL MAKE THERE WAY INTO
WESTERN CT AND MA. BIGGEST QUESTION IS THERE THICKNESS AND HOW/IF
THEY WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THE AIRMASS
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT WE WILL STILL SEE FREEZING TEMPS AFTER
THE WINDS DECOUPLE IN A FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED FOR THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVALENT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH AT LEAST THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN APPEAR TO BE THE
  PRIMARY THREAT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
  TUE NIGHT AND WED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NE MASS COAST.
* THE LOW LOOKS TO PUSH SLOWLY NE DURING THU...THOUGH INCLEMENT
  WEATHER MAY LINGER INTO FRI AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY.
* EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH MAY SEE A FEW
  SHOWERS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN AS COLD FRONT PASSES.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL 12Z OP MODELS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLC STATES DURING MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. BY THE BEGINNING OF
THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER LOW ALREADY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...PUSHING OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA COASTLINE BY MID WEEK.
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE FEATURE FORMS AND EVENTUALLY
SETS UP SHOP. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE DEVELOPING STRONG E-NE LOW
LEVEL JET AND HOW CLOSE THIS WILL COME TO THE E COAST...OR IF IT
REMAINS N OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW MEANDER THROUGH LATE THU...THEN LOOKS TO
SLOWLY EXIT TO NOVA SCOTIA...THOUGH STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES NOTED
ON OPERATIONAL MODELS. GENERAL SIGNAL ON DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS SIGNALING IMPROVED CONDITIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THURSDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHERE HIGHER TIMING
UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AS IT SHIFTS SE
OUT THE EASTERN LAKES EARLY TUE. QUICKLY DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT...WHILE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO FORM TUE
NIGHT SOMEWHERE OFF THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST. AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND FROM E-W ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING BAND OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL OFFSHORE...BUT QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER SOME OF
THIS WILL WORK INLAND. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER PRECIP MAKE IT INTO NE
MA/S CENTRAL NH OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.

QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT STRONGER E-NE WINDS THAT MAY TRY TO WORK
ONSHORE WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKING AROUND THE DEVELOP
CUTOFF UPPER LOW. AT THIS POINT...STILL LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN LOW /AROUND 2-3C/KM/
BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WORK DOWN WITH ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL
TUE NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NE COASTAL MA.

HIGHS ON TUE WILL MAKE IT TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65 ALONG THE
COAST...BUT ONLY THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
EXACT TIMING AND STORM IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THOUGH DOES LOOK
LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. USING A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...QPF TOTALS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
LOOK TO BE A BIT LESS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY AROUND
1.25 INCHES ON THE S COAST RANGING UP TO 1.75 TO AROUND 2 INCHES
ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH. QPF COULD INCREASE IF HEAVIER RAIN BANDS
MOVE ACROSS...THOUGH. EXPECT STEADY RAIN FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY
HEAD NE WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE STRONG WIND THREAT TO REMAIN N OF THE
REGION...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OR SO
ACROSS NE MA INTO S CENTRAL NH DEPENDING UPON POSITION OF JET AXIS
DURING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS PUSHING N OF THE REGION...THREAT FOR
COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS LOW. SEAS DO BUILD OFF THE E MA COAST AND
COULD SEND SOME HIGHER SWELLS TOWARD THE SHORE BY WED/THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL HIGH WIND AXIS TO SEE IF IT SHIFTS
FURTHER S.  WITH INCREASING SWELLS...RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH THE WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SURFACE LOW DEPART
DURING FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING ON THIS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKS TO PUSH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON BACK SIDE INTO
FRI NIGHT ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL NH AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
PUSHES E. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FRI.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS TO BE A DRY SEASONABLE WEEKEND AS NW WINDS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT TAKE OVER. SOME QUESTION AS TO APPROACH OF FAST MOVING
H5 SHORT WAVE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY CROSSING
THE REGION SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AT SURFACE...FOR
NOW...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/N MA AS THE FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 6Z...LEFTOVER SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-6KFT SHOULD BECOME SKC.
NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG IMMEDIATE E COAST AND ACROSS
THE CT VALLEY...DIMINISHING BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

AFTER 06Z...VFR. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS.
LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BACKING TO SW. HIGH THIN CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM W.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL AS CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN DURING TUE...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. LOW PROB OF E-NE WIND GUSTS
REACHING 20-25 KT ACROSS NE MA COAST TUE NIGHT/WED. CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE OVER WESTERN AREAS THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY MIDDAY. ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL
NH...MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WITH A DIMINISHING
TREND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO JUST THE OUTER WATERS LATE AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET
DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE BUT REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO E-SE BY
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT E-NE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS N OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. LOW PROB OF GUSTS TO 30 KT
OR EVEN TO GALE FORCE LATE THU NIGHT AND WED. SEAS WILL BUILD ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS TO 5-8 FT BY EARLY WED...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS ON THE FAR OUTER WATERS...THEN UP TO 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS WED. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WED NIGHT THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG
WILL REDUCE VSBY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW ON THU BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
MAY SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING FRI. SEAS REMAIN HIGH
ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE THU
NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-
     022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ005-006-009>014-
     017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 200102
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
902 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
9 PM UPDATE: CLOUDS AND ENOUGH WIND HAVE KEPT TEMPS FROM FALLING
OFF TOO QUICKLY. LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS LIGHTEN AND SKIES
PARTIALLY CLEAR TEMPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO FALL TO FCST LOWS. FREEZE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

PREV DISC:
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ABUNDANT UPSTREAM MOISTURE AND
ROBUST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES RIGHT DOWN TO THE COAST WHERE FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN POSTED. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...NORTHERN ZONES WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SEND HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
SHOULD STILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND IN THE 40S NORTH.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK OVER-RUNNING AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN WESTERN ZONES MONDAY
NIGHT BUT THESE SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE THE UPPER LOW WHICH CUTS OFF OVER THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
AND SLOWLY SPINS OVER THE AREA BEFORE PULLING OUT ON FRIDAY. FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE COMPUTER MODELS THAT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY... DRIFTING
TOWARD CAPE COD WEDNESDAY... THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY... AND
NOVA SCOTIA BY FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE A PRETTY GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FLOWING NORTHWARD... WITH LIFT FROM THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAUSING ALL THAT MOISTURE TO BE DEPOSITED AS
RAIN OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RAIN COULD BEGIN AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY AS BROAD LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW COULD BRING
SHOWERS. BUT THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH RAIN CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. WITH LOW
PRESSURE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY THERE SHOULD BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT.

OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD A TOTAL OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED. IT IS STILL HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL AS PINPOINTING WHERE THE RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP IN A CUT
OFF LOW TYPE SCENARIO LIKE THIS IS FAIRLY DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT.
BUT IT APPEARS THAT MAINE MIGHT BE HIT A BIT HARDER THAN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH AREAS FROM PORTLAND NORTHWARD SEEING THE MOST RAIN.
WITH THIS MUCH RAIN FORECAST... FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY.
ALTHOUGH RAIN RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME... THE
DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO CAUSE RIVER
FLOODING AS STREAMS AND RIVERS SWELL FROM THE PROLONGED RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL FOR HIGHS BUT WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... CLOUD COVER...
AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS BEGIN DETERIORATING ON TUESDAY TO MVFR/IFR
IN RAIN. SHOULD SEE IFR/LIFR COMMONPLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE. NORTH/WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONDITIONS
MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS MAY KEEP CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND TRACKS SLOWLY TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE GULF OF MAINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. WINDS
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE IN THE HIGH END OF THE ADVISORY RANGE TO LOW
END GALE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN PRODUCING 10 FT WAVES.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY FRIDAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KBOX 192349
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
749 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SLOWLY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
735 PM UPDATE...
NOTING GUSTY NW WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
AND ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AT 23Z DUE TO LEFTOVER PRES GRADIENT.
HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY/PA...BUT
SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY E THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR ACROSS CT/W MA AS SEEN ON LATEST IR
SATELLITE TRENDS...THOUGH NOTING LEADING EDGE OF CIRRUS INTRUDING
TOWARD THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE W.

SHOULD SEE THE WINDS DIMINISH AS RIDGE PUSHES SLOWLY E AS WELL AS
SKIES CONTINUING TO CLEAR. MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS WORK IN WITH THE
RIDGE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WHEN UPDATING CURRENT CONDITIONS...NOTING
THAT DEWPTS WERE ABOUT 2-4 DEGS LOWER THAN FORECAST WHERE SKIES
HAD CLEARED. UPDATED THOSE GRIDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO LOWER
DEWPTS A FEW DEGS. ALSO UPDATED SKY COVER TO BRING CURRENT BASED
ON SATELLITE.

REMAINING GRIDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE...UPDATED TO BRING CURRENT.
AGREE WITH TEMP TRENDS AS READINGS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH.
KEPT FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES INTACT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. OBSERVED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE
IN THE 30S WITH 20S UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NY. WITH THIS
VALUES ADVECTING OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS FALL INTO THE 30S. EXPECTED VALUES ARE
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO FORECASTS. FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROST ADVISORY ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND THE MASS EAST COAST.

MODELS START TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE AT NIGHT. WITH
SUFFICIENT THICKNESS...THESE CLOUDS COULD SLOW THE COOLING AND
KEEP SOME OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WE EXPECT THE
INITIAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVALENT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH AT LEAST THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN APPEAR TO BE THE
  PRIMARY THREAT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
  TUE NIGHT AND WED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NE MASS COAST.
* THE LOW LOOKS TO PUSH SLOWLY NE DURING THU...THOUGH INCLEMENT
  WEATHER MAY LINGER INTO FRI AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY.
* EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH MAY SEE A FEW
  SHOWERS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN AS COLD FRONT PASSES.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL 12Z OP MODELS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLC STATES DURING MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. BY THE BEGINNING OF
THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER LOW ALREADY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...PUSHING OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA COASTLINE BY MID WEEK.
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE FEATURE FORMS AND EVENTUALLY
SETS UP SHOP. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE DEVELOPING STRONG E-NE LOW
LEVEL JET AND HOW CLOSE THIS WILL COME TO THE E COAST...OR IF IT
REMAINS N OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW MEANDER THROUGH LATE THU...THEN LOOKS TO
SLOWLY EXIT TO NOVA SCOTIA...THOUGH STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES NOTED
ON OPERATIONAL MODELS. GENERAL SIGNAL ON DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS SIGNALING IMPROVED CONDITIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THURSDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHERE HIGHER TIMING
UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AS IT SHIFTS SE
OUT THE EASTERN LAKES EARLY TUE. QUICKLY DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT...WHILE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO FORM TUE
NIGHT SOMEWHERE OFF THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST. AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND FROM E-W ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING BAND OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL OFFSHORE...BUT QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER SOME OF
THIS WILL WORK INLAND. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER PRECIP MAKE IT INTO NE
MA/S CENTRAL NH OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.

QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT STRONGER E-NE WINDS THAT MAY TRY TO WORK
ONSHORE WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKING AROUND THE DEVELOP
CUTOFF UPPER LOW. AT THIS POINT...STILL LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN LOW /AROUND 2-3C/KM/
BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WORK DOWN WITH ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL
TUE NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NE COASTAL MA.

HIGHS ON TUE WILL MAKE IT TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65 ALONG THE
COAST...BUT ONLY THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
EXACT TIMING AND STORM IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THOUGH DOES LOOK
LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. USING A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...QPF TOTALS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
LOOK TO BE A BIT LESS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY AROUND
1.25 INCHES ON THE S COAST RANGING UP TO 1.75 TO AROUND 2 INCHES
ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH. QPF COULD INCREASE IF HEAVIER RAIN BANDS
MOVE ACROSS...THOUGH. EXPECT STEADY RAIN FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY
HEAD NE WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE STRONG WIND THREAT TO REMAIN N OF THE
REGION...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OR SO
ACROSS NE MA INTO S CENTRAL NH DEPENDING UPON POSITION OF JET AXIS
DURING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS PUSHING N OF THE REGION...THREAT FOR
COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS LOW. SEAS DO BUILD OFF THE E MA COAST AND
COULD SEND SOME HIGHER SWELLS TOWARD THE SHORE BY WED/THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL HIGH WIND AXIS TO SEE IF IT SHIFTS
FURTHER S.  WITH INCREASING SWELLS...RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH THE WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SURFACE LOW DEPART
DURING FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING ON THIS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKS TO PUSH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON BACK SIDE INTO
FRI NIGHT ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL NH AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
PUSHES E. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FRI.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS TO BE A DRY SEASONABLE WEEKEND AS NW WINDS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT TAKE OVER. SOME QUESTION AS TO APPROACH OF FAST MOVING
H5 SHORT WAVE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY CROSSING
THE REGION SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AT SURFACE...FOR
NOW...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/N MA AS THE FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT...LEFTOVER SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-6KFT SHOULD BECOME
SKC. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG IMMEDIATE E COAST AND
ACROSS THE CT VALLEY...DIMINISHING BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...VFR. CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BACKING TO SW. HIGH THIN CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM W.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL AS CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN DURING TUE...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. LOW PROB OF E-NE WIND GUSTS
REACHING 20-25 KT ACROSS NE MA COAST TUE NIGHT/WED. CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE OVER WESTERN AREAS THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY MIDDAY. ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL
NH...MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WITH A DIMINISHING
TREND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO JUST THE OUTER WATERS LATE AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET
DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE BUT REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO E-SE BY
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT E-NE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS N OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. LOW PROB OF GUSTS TO 30 KT
OR EVEN TO GALE FORCE LATE THU NIGHT AND WED. SEAS WILL BUILD ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS TO 5-8 FT BY EARLY WED...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS ON THE FAR OUTER WATERS...THEN UP TO 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS WED. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WED NIGHT THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG
WILL REDUCE VSBY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW ON THU BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
MAY SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING FRI. SEAS REMAIN HIGH
ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE THU
NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 192349
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
749 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SLOWLY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
735 PM UPDATE...
NOTING GUSTY NW WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
AND ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AT 23Z DUE TO LEFTOVER PRES GRADIENT.
HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY/PA...BUT
SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY E THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR ACROSS CT/W MA AS SEEN ON LATEST IR
SATELLITE TRENDS...THOUGH NOTING LEADING EDGE OF CIRRUS INTRUDING
TOWARD THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE W.

SHOULD SEE THE WINDS DIMINISH AS RIDGE PUSHES SLOWLY E AS WELL AS
SKIES CONTINUING TO CLEAR. MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS WORK IN WITH THE
RIDGE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WHEN UPDATING CURRENT CONDITIONS...NOTING
THAT DEWPTS WERE ABOUT 2-4 DEGS LOWER THAN FORECAST WHERE SKIES
HAD CLEARED. UPDATED THOSE GRIDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO LOWER
DEWPTS A FEW DEGS. ALSO UPDATED SKY COVER TO BRING CURRENT BASED
ON SATELLITE.

REMAINING GRIDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE...UPDATED TO BRING CURRENT.
AGREE WITH TEMP TRENDS AS READINGS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH.
KEPT FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES INTACT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. OBSERVED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE
IN THE 30S WITH 20S UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NY. WITH THIS
VALUES ADVECTING OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS FALL INTO THE 30S. EXPECTED VALUES ARE
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO FORECASTS. FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROST ADVISORY ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND THE MASS EAST COAST.

MODELS START TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE AT NIGHT. WITH
SUFFICIENT THICKNESS...THESE CLOUDS COULD SLOW THE COOLING AND
KEEP SOME OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WE EXPECT THE
INITIAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVALENT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH AT LEAST THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN APPEAR TO BE THE
  PRIMARY THREAT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
  TUE NIGHT AND WED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NE MASS COAST.
* THE LOW LOOKS TO PUSH SLOWLY NE DURING THU...THOUGH INCLEMENT
  WEATHER MAY LINGER INTO FRI AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY.
* EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH MAY SEE A FEW
  SHOWERS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN AS COLD FRONT PASSES.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL 12Z OP MODELS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLC STATES DURING MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. BY THE BEGINNING OF
THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER LOW ALREADY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...PUSHING OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA COASTLINE BY MID WEEK.
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE FEATURE FORMS AND EVENTUALLY
SETS UP SHOP. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE DEVELOPING STRONG E-NE LOW
LEVEL JET AND HOW CLOSE THIS WILL COME TO THE E COAST...OR IF IT
REMAINS N OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW MEANDER THROUGH LATE THU...THEN LOOKS TO
SLOWLY EXIT TO NOVA SCOTIA...THOUGH STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES NOTED
ON OPERATIONAL MODELS. GENERAL SIGNAL ON DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS SIGNALING IMPROVED CONDITIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THURSDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHERE HIGHER TIMING
UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AS IT SHIFTS SE
OUT THE EASTERN LAKES EARLY TUE. QUICKLY DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT...WHILE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO FORM TUE
NIGHT SOMEWHERE OFF THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST. AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND FROM E-W ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING BAND OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL OFFSHORE...BUT QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER SOME OF
THIS WILL WORK INLAND. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER PRECIP MAKE IT INTO NE
MA/S CENTRAL NH OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.

QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT STRONGER E-NE WINDS THAT MAY TRY TO WORK
ONSHORE WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKING AROUND THE DEVELOP
CUTOFF UPPER LOW. AT THIS POINT...STILL LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN LOW /AROUND 2-3C/KM/
BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WORK DOWN WITH ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL
TUE NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NE COASTAL MA.

HIGHS ON TUE WILL MAKE IT TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65 ALONG THE
COAST...BUT ONLY THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
EXACT TIMING AND STORM IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THOUGH DOES LOOK
LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. USING A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...QPF TOTALS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
LOOK TO BE A BIT LESS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY AROUND
1.25 INCHES ON THE S COAST RANGING UP TO 1.75 TO AROUND 2 INCHES
ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH. QPF COULD INCREASE IF HEAVIER RAIN BANDS
MOVE ACROSS...THOUGH. EXPECT STEADY RAIN FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY
HEAD NE WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE STRONG WIND THREAT TO REMAIN N OF THE
REGION...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OR SO
ACROSS NE MA INTO S CENTRAL NH DEPENDING UPON POSITION OF JET AXIS
DURING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS PUSHING N OF THE REGION...THREAT FOR
COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS LOW. SEAS DO BUILD OFF THE E MA COAST AND
COULD SEND SOME HIGHER SWELLS TOWARD THE SHORE BY WED/THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL HIGH WIND AXIS TO SEE IF IT SHIFTS
FURTHER S.  WITH INCREASING SWELLS...RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH THE WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SURFACE LOW DEPART
DURING FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING ON THIS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKS TO PUSH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON BACK SIDE INTO
FRI NIGHT ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL NH AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
PUSHES E. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FRI.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS TO BE A DRY SEASONABLE WEEKEND AS NW WINDS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT TAKE OVER. SOME QUESTION AS TO APPROACH OF FAST MOVING
H5 SHORT WAVE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY CROSSING
THE REGION SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AT SURFACE...FOR
NOW...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/N MA AS THE FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT...LEFTOVER SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-6KFT SHOULD BECOME
SKC. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG IMMEDIATE E COAST AND
ACROSS THE CT VALLEY...DIMINISHING BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...VFR. CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BACKING TO SW. HIGH THIN CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM W.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL AS CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN DURING TUE...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. LOW PROB OF E-NE WIND GUSTS
REACHING 20-25 KT ACROSS NE MA COAST TUE NIGHT/WED. CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE OVER WESTERN AREAS THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY MIDDAY. ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL
NH...MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WITH A DIMINISHING
TREND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO JUST THE OUTER WATERS LATE AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET
DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE BUT REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO E-SE BY
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT E-NE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS N OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. LOW PROB OF GUSTS TO 30 KT
OR EVEN TO GALE FORCE LATE THU NIGHT AND WED. SEAS WILL BUILD ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS TO 5-8 FT BY EARLY WED...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS ON THE FAR OUTER WATERS...THEN UP TO 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS WED. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WED NIGHT THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG
WILL REDUCE VSBY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW ON THU BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
MAY SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING FRI. SEAS REMAIN HIGH
ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE THU
NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 192349
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
749 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SLOWLY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
735 PM UPDATE...
NOTING GUSTY NW WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
AND ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AT 23Z DUE TO LEFTOVER PRES GRADIENT.
HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY/PA...BUT
SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY E THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR ACROSS CT/W MA AS SEEN ON LATEST IR
SATELLITE TRENDS...THOUGH NOTING LEADING EDGE OF CIRRUS INTRUDING
TOWARD THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE W.

SHOULD SEE THE WINDS DIMINISH AS RIDGE PUSHES SLOWLY E AS WELL AS
SKIES CONTINUING TO CLEAR. MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS WORK IN WITH THE
RIDGE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WHEN UPDATING CURRENT CONDITIONS...NOTING
THAT DEWPTS WERE ABOUT 2-4 DEGS LOWER THAN FORECAST WHERE SKIES
HAD CLEARED. UPDATED THOSE GRIDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO LOWER
DEWPTS A FEW DEGS. ALSO UPDATED SKY COVER TO BRING CURRENT BASED
ON SATELLITE.

REMAINING GRIDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE...UPDATED TO BRING CURRENT.
AGREE WITH TEMP TRENDS AS READINGS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH.
KEPT FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES INTACT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. OBSERVED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE
IN THE 30S WITH 20S UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NY. WITH THIS
VALUES ADVECTING OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS FALL INTO THE 30S. EXPECTED VALUES ARE
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO FORECASTS. FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROST ADVISORY ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND THE MASS EAST COAST.

MODELS START TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE AT NIGHT. WITH
SUFFICIENT THICKNESS...THESE CLOUDS COULD SLOW THE COOLING AND
KEEP SOME OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WE EXPECT THE
INITIAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVALENT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH AT LEAST THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN APPEAR TO BE THE
  PRIMARY THREAT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
  TUE NIGHT AND WED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NE MASS COAST.
* THE LOW LOOKS TO PUSH SLOWLY NE DURING THU...THOUGH INCLEMENT
  WEATHER MAY LINGER INTO FRI AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY.
* EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH MAY SEE A FEW
  SHOWERS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN AS COLD FRONT PASSES.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL 12Z OP MODELS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLC STATES DURING MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. BY THE BEGINNING OF
THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER LOW ALREADY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...PUSHING OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA COASTLINE BY MID WEEK.
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE FEATURE FORMS AND EVENTUALLY
SETS UP SHOP. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE DEVELOPING STRONG E-NE LOW
LEVEL JET AND HOW CLOSE THIS WILL COME TO THE E COAST...OR IF IT
REMAINS N OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW MEANDER THROUGH LATE THU...THEN LOOKS TO
SLOWLY EXIT TO NOVA SCOTIA...THOUGH STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES NOTED
ON OPERATIONAL MODELS. GENERAL SIGNAL ON DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS SIGNALING IMPROVED CONDITIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THURSDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHERE HIGHER TIMING
UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AS IT SHIFTS SE
OUT THE EASTERN LAKES EARLY TUE. QUICKLY DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT...WHILE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO FORM TUE
NIGHT SOMEWHERE OFF THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST. AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND FROM E-W ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING BAND OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL OFFSHORE...BUT QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER SOME OF
THIS WILL WORK INLAND. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER PRECIP MAKE IT INTO NE
MA/S CENTRAL NH OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.

QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT STRONGER E-NE WINDS THAT MAY TRY TO WORK
ONSHORE WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKING AROUND THE DEVELOP
CUTOFF UPPER LOW. AT THIS POINT...STILL LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN LOW /AROUND 2-3C/KM/
BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WORK DOWN WITH ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL
TUE NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NE COASTAL MA.

HIGHS ON TUE WILL MAKE IT TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65 ALONG THE
COAST...BUT ONLY THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
EXACT TIMING AND STORM IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THOUGH DOES LOOK
LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. USING A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...QPF TOTALS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
LOOK TO BE A BIT LESS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY AROUND
1.25 INCHES ON THE S COAST RANGING UP TO 1.75 TO AROUND 2 INCHES
ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH. QPF COULD INCREASE IF HEAVIER RAIN BANDS
MOVE ACROSS...THOUGH. EXPECT STEADY RAIN FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY
HEAD NE WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE STRONG WIND THREAT TO REMAIN N OF THE
REGION...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OR SO
ACROSS NE MA INTO S CENTRAL NH DEPENDING UPON POSITION OF JET AXIS
DURING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS PUSHING N OF THE REGION...THREAT FOR
COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS LOW. SEAS DO BUILD OFF THE E MA COAST AND
COULD SEND SOME HIGHER SWELLS TOWARD THE SHORE BY WED/THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL HIGH WIND AXIS TO SEE IF IT SHIFTS
FURTHER S.  WITH INCREASING SWELLS...RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH THE WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SURFACE LOW DEPART
DURING FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING ON THIS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKS TO PUSH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON BACK SIDE INTO
FRI NIGHT ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL NH AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
PUSHES E. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FRI.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS TO BE A DRY SEASONABLE WEEKEND AS NW WINDS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT TAKE OVER. SOME QUESTION AS TO APPROACH OF FAST MOVING
H5 SHORT WAVE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY CROSSING
THE REGION SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AT SURFACE...FOR
NOW...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/N MA AS THE FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT...LEFTOVER SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-6KFT SHOULD BECOME
SKC. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG IMMEDIATE E COAST AND
ACROSS THE CT VALLEY...DIMINISHING BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...VFR. CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BACKING TO SW. HIGH THIN CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM W.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL AS CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN DURING TUE...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. LOW PROB OF E-NE WIND GUSTS
REACHING 20-25 KT ACROSS NE MA COAST TUE NIGHT/WED. CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE OVER WESTERN AREAS THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY MIDDAY. ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL
NH...MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WITH A DIMINISHING
TREND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO JUST THE OUTER WATERS LATE AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET
DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE BUT REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO E-SE BY
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT E-NE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS N OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. LOW PROB OF GUSTS TO 30 KT
OR EVEN TO GALE FORCE LATE THU NIGHT AND WED. SEAS WILL BUILD ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS TO 5-8 FT BY EARLY WED...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS ON THE FAR OUTER WATERS...THEN UP TO 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS WED. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WED NIGHT THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG
WILL REDUCE VSBY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW ON THU BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
MAY SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING FRI. SEAS REMAIN HIGH
ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE THU
NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 192349
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
749 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SLOWLY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
735 PM UPDATE...
NOTING GUSTY NW WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
AND ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AT 23Z DUE TO LEFTOVER PRES GRADIENT.
HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY/PA...BUT
SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY E THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR ACROSS CT/W MA AS SEEN ON LATEST IR
SATELLITE TRENDS...THOUGH NOTING LEADING EDGE OF CIRRUS INTRUDING
TOWARD THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE W.

SHOULD SEE THE WINDS DIMINISH AS RIDGE PUSHES SLOWLY E AS WELL AS
SKIES CONTINUING TO CLEAR. MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS WORK IN WITH THE
RIDGE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WHEN UPDATING CURRENT CONDITIONS...NOTING
THAT DEWPTS WERE ABOUT 2-4 DEGS LOWER THAN FORECAST WHERE SKIES
HAD CLEARED. UPDATED THOSE GRIDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO LOWER
DEWPTS A FEW DEGS. ALSO UPDATED SKY COVER TO BRING CURRENT BASED
ON SATELLITE.

REMAINING GRIDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE...UPDATED TO BRING CURRENT.
AGREE WITH TEMP TRENDS AS READINGS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH.
KEPT FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES INTACT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. OBSERVED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE
IN THE 30S WITH 20S UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NY. WITH THIS
VALUES ADVECTING OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS FALL INTO THE 30S. EXPECTED VALUES ARE
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO FORECASTS. FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROST ADVISORY ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND THE MASS EAST COAST.

MODELS START TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE AT NIGHT. WITH
SUFFICIENT THICKNESS...THESE CLOUDS COULD SLOW THE COOLING AND
KEEP SOME OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WE EXPECT THE
INITIAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVALENT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH AT LEAST THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN APPEAR TO BE THE
  PRIMARY THREAT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
  TUE NIGHT AND WED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NE MASS COAST.
* THE LOW LOOKS TO PUSH SLOWLY NE DURING THU...THOUGH INCLEMENT
  WEATHER MAY LINGER INTO FRI AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY.
* EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH MAY SEE A FEW
  SHOWERS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN AS COLD FRONT PASSES.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL 12Z OP MODELS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLC STATES DURING MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. BY THE BEGINNING OF
THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER LOW ALREADY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...PUSHING OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA COASTLINE BY MID WEEK.
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE FEATURE FORMS AND EVENTUALLY
SETS UP SHOP. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE DEVELOPING STRONG E-NE LOW
LEVEL JET AND HOW CLOSE THIS WILL COME TO THE E COAST...OR IF IT
REMAINS N OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW MEANDER THROUGH LATE THU...THEN LOOKS TO
SLOWLY EXIT TO NOVA SCOTIA...THOUGH STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES NOTED
ON OPERATIONAL MODELS. GENERAL SIGNAL ON DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS SIGNALING IMPROVED CONDITIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THURSDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHERE HIGHER TIMING
UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AS IT SHIFTS SE
OUT THE EASTERN LAKES EARLY TUE. QUICKLY DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT...WHILE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO FORM TUE
NIGHT SOMEWHERE OFF THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST. AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND FROM E-W ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING BAND OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL OFFSHORE...BUT QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER SOME OF
THIS WILL WORK INLAND. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER PRECIP MAKE IT INTO NE
MA/S CENTRAL NH OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.

QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT STRONGER E-NE WINDS THAT MAY TRY TO WORK
ONSHORE WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKING AROUND THE DEVELOP
CUTOFF UPPER LOW. AT THIS POINT...STILL LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN LOW /AROUND 2-3C/KM/
BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WORK DOWN WITH ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL
TUE NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NE COASTAL MA.

HIGHS ON TUE WILL MAKE IT TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65 ALONG THE
COAST...BUT ONLY THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
EXACT TIMING AND STORM IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THOUGH DOES LOOK
LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. USING A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...QPF TOTALS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
LOOK TO BE A BIT LESS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY AROUND
1.25 INCHES ON THE S COAST RANGING UP TO 1.75 TO AROUND 2 INCHES
ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH. QPF COULD INCREASE IF HEAVIER RAIN BANDS
MOVE ACROSS...THOUGH. EXPECT STEADY RAIN FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY
HEAD NE WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE STRONG WIND THREAT TO REMAIN N OF THE
REGION...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OR SO
ACROSS NE MA INTO S CENTRAL NH DEPENDING UPON POSITION OF JET AXIS
DURING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS PUSHING N OF THE REGION...THREAT FOR
COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS LOW. SEAS DO BUILD OFF THE E MA COAST AND
COULD SEND SOME HIGHER SWELLS TOWARD THE SHORE BY WED/THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL HIGH WIND AXIS TO SEE IF IT SHIFTS
FURTHER S.  WITH INCREASING SWELLS...RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH THE WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SURFACE LOW DEPART
DURING FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING ON THIS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKS TO PUSH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON BACK SIDE INTO
FRI NIGHT ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL NH AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
PUSHES E. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FRI.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS TO BE A DRY SEASONABLE WEEKEND AS NW WINDS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT TAKE OVER. SOME QUESTION AS TO APPROACH OF FAST MOVING
H5 SHORT WAVE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY CROSSING
THE REGION SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AT SURFACE...FOR
NOW...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/N MA AS THE FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT...LEFTOVER SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-6KFT SHOULD BECOME
SKC. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG IMMEDIATE E COAST AND
ACROSS THE CT VALLEY...DIMINISHING BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...VFR. CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BACKING TO SW. HIGH THIN CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM W.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL AS CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN DURING TUE...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. LOW PROB OF E-NE WIND GUSTS
REACHING 20-25 KT ACROSS NE MA COAST TUE NIGHT/WED. CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE OVER WESTERN AREAS THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY MIDDAY. ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL
NH...MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WITH A DIMINISHING
TREND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO JUST THE OUTER WATERS LATE AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET
DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE BUT REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO E-SE BY
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT E-NE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS N OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. LOW PROB OF GUSTS TO 30 KT
OR EVEN TO GALE FORCE LATE THU NIGHT AND WED. SEAS WILL BUILD ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS TO 5-8 FT BY EARLY WED...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS ON THE FAR OUTER WATERS...THEN UP TO 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS WED. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WED NIGHT THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG
WILL REDUCE VSBY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW ON THU BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
MAY SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING FRI. SEAS REMAIN HIGH
ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE THU
NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 192349
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
749 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SLOWLY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
735 PM UPDATE...
NOTING GUSTY NW WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
AND ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AT 23Z DUE TO LEFTOVER PRES GRADIENT.
HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY/PA...BUT
SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY E THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR ACROSS CT/W MA AS SEEN ON LATEST IR
SATELLITE TRENDS...THOUGH NOTING LEADING EDGE OF CIRRUS INTRUDING
TOWARD THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE W.

SHOULD SEE THE WINDS DIMINISH AS RIDGE PUSHES SLOWLY E AS WELL AS
SKIES CONTINUING TO CLEAR. MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS WORK IN WITH THE
RIDGE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WHEN UPDATING CURRENT CONDITIONS...NOTING
THAT DEWPTS WERE ABOUT 2-4 DEGS LOWER THAN FORECAST WHERE SKIES
HAD CLEARED. UPDATED THOSE GRIDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO LOWER
DEWPTS A FEW DEGS. ALSO UPDATED SKY COVER TO BRING CURRENT BASED
ON SATELLITE.

REMAINING GRIDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE...UPDATED TO BRING CURRENT.
AGREE WITH TEMP TRENDS AS READINGS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH.
KEPT FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES INTACT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. OBSERVED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE
IN THE 30S WITH 20S UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NY. WITH THIS
VALUES ADVECTING OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS FALL INTO THE 30S. EXPECTED VALUES ARE
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO FORECASTS. FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROST ADVISORY ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND THE MASS EAST COAST.

MODELS START TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE AT NIGHT. WITH
SUFFICIENT THICKNESS...THESE CLOUDS COULD SLOW THE COOLING AND
KEEP SOME OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WE EXPECT THE
INITIAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVALENT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH AT LEAST THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN APPEAR TO BE THE
  PRIMARY THREAT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
  TUE NIGHT AND WED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NE MASS COAST.
* THE LOW LOOKS TO PUSH SLOWLY NE DURING THU...THOUGH INCLEMENT
  WEATHER MAY LINGER INTO FRI AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY.
* EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH MAY SEE A FEW
  SHOWERS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN AS COLD FRONT PASSES.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL 12Z OP MODELS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLC STATES DURING MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. BY THE BEGINNING OF
THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER LOW ALREADY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...PUSHING OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA COASTLINE BY MID WEEK.
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE FEATURE FORMS AND EVENTUALLY
SETS UP SHOP. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE DEVELOPING STRONG E-NE LOW
LEVEL JET AND HOW CLOSE THIS WILL COME TO THE E COAST...OR IF IT
REMAINS N OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW MEANDER THROUGH LATE THU...THEN LOOKS TO
SLOWLY EXIT TO NOVA SCOTIA...THOUGH STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES NOTED
ON OPERATIONAL MODELS. GENERAL SIGNAL ON DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS SIGNALING IMPROVED CONDITIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THURSDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHERE HIGHER TIMING
UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AS IT SHIFTS SE
OUT THE EASTERN LAKES EARLY TUE. QUICKLY DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT...WHILE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO FORM TUE
NIGHT SOMEWHERE OFF THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST. AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND FROM E-W ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING BAND OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL OFFSHORE...BUT QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER SOME OF
THIS WILL WORK INLAND. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER PRECIP MAKE IT INTO NE
MA/S CENTRAL NH OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.

QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT STRONGER E-NE WINDS THAT MAY TRY TO WORK
ONSHORE WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKING AROUND THE DEVELOP
CUTOFF UPPER LOW. AT THIS POINT...STILL LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN LOW /AROUND 2-3C/KM/
BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WORK DOWN WITH ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL
TUE NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NE COASTAL MA.

HIGHS ON TUE WILL MAKE IT TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65 ALONG THE
COAST...BUT ONLY THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
EXACT TIMING AND STORM IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THOUGH DOES LOOK
LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. USING A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...QPF TOTALS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
LOOK TO BE A BIT LESS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY AROUND
1.25 INCHES ON THE S COAST RANGING UP TO 1.75 TO AROUND 2 INCHES
ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH. QPF COULD INCREASE IF HEAVIER RAIN BANDS
MOVE ACROSS...THOUGH. EXPECT STEADY RAIN FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY
HEAD NE WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE STRONG WIND THREAT TO REMAIN N OF THE
REGION...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OR SO
ACROSS NE MA INTO S CENTRAL NH DEPENDING UPON POSITION OF JET AXIS
DURING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS PUSHING N OF THE REGION...THREAT FOR
COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS LOW. SEAS DO BUILD OFF THE E MA COAST AND
COULD SEND SOME HIGHER SWELLS TOWARD THE SHORE BY WED/THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL HIGH WIND AXIS TO SEE IF IT SHIFTS
FURTHER S.  WITH INCREASING SWELLS...RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH THE WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SURFACE LOW DEPART
DURING FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING ON THIS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKS TO PUSH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON BACK SIDE INTO
FRI NIGHT ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL NH AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
PUSHES E. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FRI.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS TO BE A DRY SEASONABLE WEEKEND AS NW WINDS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT TAKE OVER. SOME QUESTION AS TO APPROACH OF FAST MOVING
H5 SHORT WAVE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY CROSSING
THE REGION SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AT SURFACE...FOR
NOW...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/N MA AS THE FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT...LEFTOVER SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-6KFT SHOULD BECOME
SKC. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG IMMEDIATE E COAST AND
ACROSS THE CT VALLEY...DIMINISHING BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...VFR. CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BACKING TO SW. HIGH THIN CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM W.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL AS CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN DURING TUE...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. LOW PROB OF E-NE WIND GUSTS
REACHING 20-25 KT ACROSS NE MA COAST TUE NIGHT/WED. CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE OVER WESTERN AREAS THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY MIDDAY. ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL
NH...MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WITH A DIMINISHING
TREND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO JUST THE OUTER WATERS LATE AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET
DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE BUT REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO E-SE BY
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT E-NE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS N OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. LOW PROB OF GUSTS TO 30 KT
OR EVEN TO GALE FORCE LATE THU NIGHT AND WED. SEAS WILL BUILD ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS TO 5-8 FT BY EARLY WED...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS ON THE FAR OUTER WATERS...THEN UP TO 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS WED. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WED NIGHT THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG
WILL REDUCE VSBY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW ON THU BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
MAY SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING FRI. SEAS REMAIN HIGH
ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE THU
NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 192349
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
749 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SLOWLY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
735 PM UPDATE...
NOTING GUSTY NW WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
AND ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AT 23Z DUE TO LEFTOVER PRES GRADIENT.
HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY/PA...BUT
SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY E THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR ACROSS CT/W MA AS SEEN ON LATEST IR
SATELLITE TRENDS...THOUGH NOTING LEADING EDGE OF CIRRUS INTRUDING
TOWARD THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE W.

SHOULD SEE THE WINDS DIMINISH AS RIDGE PUSHES SLOWLY E AS WELL AS
SKIES CONTINUING TO CLEAR. MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS WORK IN WITH THE
RIDGE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WHEN UPDATING CURRENT CONDITIONS...NOTING
THAT DEWPTS WERE ABOUT 2-4 DEGS LOWER THAN FORECAST WHERE SKIES
HAD CLEARED. UPDATED THOSE GRIDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO LOWER
DEWPTS A FEW DEGS. ALSO UPDATED SKY COVER TO BRING CURRENT BASED
ON SATELLITE.

REMAINING GRIDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE...UPDATED TO BRING CURRENT.
AGREE WITH TEMP TRENDS AS READINGS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH.
KEPT FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES INTACT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. OBSERVED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE
IN THE 30S WITH 20S UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NY. WITH THIS
VALUES ADVECTING OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS FALL INTO THE 30S. EXPECTED VALUES ARE
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO FORECASTS. FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROST ADVISORY ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND THE MASS EAST COAST.

MODELS START TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE AT NIGHT. WITH
SUFFICIENT THICKNESS...THESE CLOUDS COULD SLOW THE COOLING AND
KEEP SOME OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WE EXPECT THE
INITIAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVALENT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH AT LEAST THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN APPEAR TO BE THE
  PRIMARY THREAT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
  TUE NIGHT AND WED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NE MASS COAST.
* THE LOW LOOKS TO PUSH SLOWLY NE DURING THU...THOUGH INCLEMENT
  WEATHER MAY LINGER INTO FRI AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY.
* EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH MAY SEE A FEW
  SHOWERS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN AS COLD FRONT PASSES.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL 12Z OP MODELS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLC STATES DURING MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. BY THE BEGINNING OF
THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER LOW ALREADY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...PUSHING OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA COASTLINE BY MID WEEK.
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE FEATURE FORMS AND EVENTUALLY
SETS UP SHOP. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE DEVELOPING STRONG E-NE LOW
LEVEL JET AND HOW CLOSE THIS WILL COME TO THE E COAST...OR IF IT
REMAINS N OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW MEANDER THROUGH LATE THU...THEN LOOKS TO
SLOWLY EXIT TO NOVA SCOTIA...THOUGH STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES NOTED
ON OPERATIONAL MODELS. GENERAL SIGNAL ON DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS SIGNALING IMPROVED CONDITIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THURSDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHERE HIGHER TIMING
UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AS IT SHIFTS SE
OUT THE EASTERN LAKES EARLY TUE. QUICKLY DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT...WHILE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO FORM TUE
NIGHT SOMEWHERE OFF THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST. AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND FROM E-W ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING BAND OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL OFFSHORE...BUT QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER SOME OF
THIS WILL WORK INLAND. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER PRECIP MAKE IT INTO NE
MA/S CENTRAL NH OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.

QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT STRONGER E-NE WINDS THAT MAY TRY TO WORK
ONSHORE WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKING AROUND THE DEVELOP
CUTOFF UPPER LOW. AT THIS POINT...STILL LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN LOW /AROUND 2-3C/KM/
BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WORK DOWN WITH ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL
TUE NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NE COASTAL MA.

HIGHS ON TUE WILL MAKE IT TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65 ALONG THE
COAST...BUT ONLY THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
EXACT TIMING AND STORM IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THOUGH DOES LOOK
LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. USING A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...QPF TOTALS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
LOOK TO BE A BIT LESS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY AROUND
1.25 INCHES ON THE S COAST RANGING UP TO 1.75 TO AROUND 2 INCHES
ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH. QPF COULD INCREASE IF HEAVIER RAIN BANDS
MOVE ACROSS...THOUGH. EXPECT STEADY RAIN FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY
HEAD NE WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE STRONG WIND THREAT TO REMAIN N OF THE
REGION...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OR SO
ACROSS NE MA INTO S CENTRAL NH DEPENDING UPON POSITION OF JET AXIS
DURING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS PUSHING N OF THE REGION...THREAT FOR
COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS LOW. SEAS DO BUILD OFF THE E MA COAST AND
COULD SEND SOME HIGHER SWELLS TOWARD THE SHORE BY WED/THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL HIGH WIND AXIS TO SEE IF IT SHIFTS
FURTHER S.  WITH INCREASING SWELLS...RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH THE WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SURFACE LOW DEPART
DURING FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING ON THIS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKS TO PUSH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON BACK SIDE INTO
FRI NIGHT ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL NH AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
PUSHES E. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FRI.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS TO BE A DRY SEASONABLE WEEKEND AS NW WINDS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT TAKE OVER. SOME QUESTION AS TO APPROACH OF FAST MOVING
H5 SHORT WAVE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY CROSSING
THE REGION SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AT SURFACE...FOR
NOW...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/N MA AS THE FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT...LEFTOVER SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-6KFT SHOULD BECOME
SKC. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG IMMEDIATE E COAST AND
ACROSS THE CT VALLEY...DIMINISHING BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...VFR. CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BACKING TO SW. HIGH THIN CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM W.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL AS CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN DURING TUE...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. LOW PROB OF E-NE WIND GUSTS
REACHING 20-25 KT ACROSS NE MA COAST TUE NIGHT/WED. CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE OVER WESTERN AREAS THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY MIDDAY. ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL
NH...MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WITH A DIMINISHING
TREND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO JUST THE OUTER WATERS LATE AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET
DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE BUT REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO E-SE BY
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT E-NE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS N OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. LOW PROB OF GUSTS TO 30 KT
OR EVEN TO GALE FORCE LATE THU NIGHT AND WED. SEAS WILL BUILD ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS TO 5-8 FT BY EARLY WED...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS ON THE FAR OUTER WATERS...THEN UP TO 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS WED. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WED NIGHT THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG
WILL REDUCE VSBY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW ON THU BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
MAY SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING FRI. SEAS REMAIN HIGH
ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE THU
NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 192107
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
507 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SLOWLY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...
UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND -22C WHICH IS COLD
ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH ANY
SOLAR HEATING OF THE SURFACE. EXPECT PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

OBSERVED WINDS ALOFT BELOW 850 MB ARE 25 KNOTS. MIXING WILL TAP
THESE WINDS AND SUPPORT NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND. THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. OBSERVED
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 30S WITH 20S UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO
AND WESTERN NY. WITH THIS VALUES ADVECTING OVER NEW
ENGLAND...EXPECT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS FALL
INTO THE 30S. EXPECTED VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO
FORECASTS. WE WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROST ADVISORY ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND THE MASS EAST COAST.

MODELS START TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE AT NIGHT. WITH
SUFFICIENT THICKNESS...THESE CLOUDS COULD SLOW THE COOLING AND
KEEP SOME OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WE EXPECT THE
INITIAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVALENT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH AT LEAST THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN APPEAR TO BE THE
  PRIMARY THREAT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
  TUE NIGHT AND WED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NE MASS COAST.
* THE LOW LOOKS TO PUSH SLOWLY NE DURING THU...THOUGH INCLEMENT
  WEATHER MAY LINGER INTO FRI AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY.
* EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH MAY SEE A FEW
  SHOWERS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN AS COLD FRONT PASSES.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL 12Z OP MODELS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLC STATES DURING MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. BY THE BEGINNING OF
THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER LOW ALREADY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...PUSHING OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA COASTLINE BY MID WEEK.
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE FEATURE FORMS AND EVENTUALLY
SETS UP SHOP. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE DEVELOPING STRONG E-NE LOW
LEVEL JET AND HOW CLOSE THIS WILL COME TO THE E COAST...OR IF IT
REMAINS N OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW MEANDER THROUGH LATE THU...THEN LOOKS TO
SLOWLY EXIT TO NOVA SCOTIA...THOUGH STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES NOTED
ON OPERATIONAL MODELS. GENERAL SIGNAL ON DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS SIGNALING IMPROVED CONDITIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THURSDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHERE HIGHER TIMING
UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AS IT SHIFTS SE
OUT THE EASTERN LAKES EARLY TUE. QUICKLY DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT...WHILE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO FORM TUE
NIGHT SOMEWHERE OFF THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST. AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND FROM E-W ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING BAND OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL OFFSHORE...BUT QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER SOME OF
THIS WILL WORK INLAND. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER PRECIP MAKE IT INTO NE
MA/S CENTRAL NH OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.

QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT STRONGER E-NE WINDS THAT MAY TRY TO WORK
ONSHORE WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKING AROUND THE DEVELOP
CUTOFF UPPER LOW. AT THIS POINT...STILL LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN LOW /AROUND 2-3C/KM/
BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WORK DOWN WITH ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL
TUE NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NE COASTAL MA.

HIGHS ON TUE WILL MAKE IT TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65 ALONG THE
COAST...BUT ONLY THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
EXACT TIMING AND STORM IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THOUGH DOES LOOK
LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. USING A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...QPF TOTALS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
LOOK TO BE A BIT LESS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY AROUND
1.25 INCHES ON THE S COAST RANGING UP TO 1.75 TO AROUND 2 INCHES
ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH. QPF COULD INCREASE IF HEAVIER RAIN BANDS
MOVE ACROSS...THOUGH. EXPECT STEADY RAIN FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY
HEAD NE WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE STRONG WIND THREAT TO REMAIN N OF THE
REGION...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OR SO
ACROSS NE MA INTO S CENTRAL NH DEPENDING UPON POSITION OF JET AXIS
DURING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS PUSHING N OF THE REGION...THREAT FOR
COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS LOW. SEAS DO BUILD OFF THE E MA COAST AND
COULD SEND SOME HIGHER SWELLS TOWARD THE SHORE BY WED/THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL HIGH WIND AXIS TO SEE IF IT SHIFTS
FURTHER S.  WITH INCREASING SWELLS...RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH THE WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SURFACE LOW DEPART
DURING FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING ON THIS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKS TO PUSH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON BACK SIDE INTO
FRI NIGHT ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL NH AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
PUSHES E. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FRI.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS TO BE A DRY SEASONABLE WEEKEND AS NW WINDS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT TAKE OVER. SOME QUESTION AS TO APPROACH OF FAST MOVING
H5 SHORT WAVE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY CROSSING
THE REGION SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AT SURFACE...FOR
NOW...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/N MA AS THE FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...

VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 4500 FEET. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-30 KNOTS...DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR. CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL AS CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN DURING TUE...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. LOW PROB OF E-NE WIND GUSTS
REACHING 20-25 KT ACROSS NE MA COAST TUE NIGHT/WED. CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE OVER WESTERN AREAS THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY MIDDAY. ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL
NH...MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 8 PM/00Z...
WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS CONTINUE. SEAS LINGER AT 5-6 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS. PLENTY OF CLOUDS MOVING OFF LAND WITH SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT NORTHWEST
WINDS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO JUST THE OUTER WATERS LATE AT
NIGHT.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET
DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE BUT REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO E-SE BY
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT E-NE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS N OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. LOW PROB OF GUSTS TO 30 KT
OR EVEN TO GALE FORCE LATE THU NIGHT AND WED. SEAS WILL BUILD ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS TO 5-8 FT BY EARLY WED...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS ON THE FAR OUTER WATERS...THEN UP TO 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS WED. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WED NIGHT THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG
WILL REDUCE VSBY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW ON THU BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
MAY SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING FRI. SEAS REMAIN HIGH
ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE THU
NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 192107
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
507 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SLOWLY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...
UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND -22C WHICH IS COLD
ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH ANY
SOLAR HEATING OF THE SURFACE. EXPECT PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

OBSERVED WINDS ALOFT BELOW 850 MB ARE 25 KNOTS. MIXING WILL TAP
THESE WINDS AND SUPPORT NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND. THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. OBSERVED
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 30S WITH 20S UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO
AND WESTERN NY. WITH THIS VALUES ADVECTING OVER NEW
ENGLAND...EXPECT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS FALL
INTO THE 30S. EXPECTED VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO
FORECASTS. WE WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROST ADVISORY ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND THE MASS EAST COAST.

MODELS START TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE AT NIGHT. WITH
SUFFICIENT THICKNESS...THESE CLOUDS COULD SLOW THE COOLING AND
KEEP SOME OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WE EXPECT THE
INITIAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVALENT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH AT LEAST THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN APPEAR TO BE THE
  PRIMARY THREAT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
  TUE NIGHT AND WED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NE MASS COAST.
* THE LOW LOOKS TO PUSH SLOWLY NE DURING THU...THOUGH INCLEMENT
  WEATHER MAY LINGER INTO FRI AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY.
* EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH MAY SEE A FEW
  SHOWERS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN AS COLD FRONT PASSES.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL 12Z OP MODELS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLC STATES DURING MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. BY THE BEGINNING OF
THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER LOW ALREADY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...PUSHING OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA COASTLINE BY MID WEEK.
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE FEATURE FORMS AND EVENTUALLY
SETS UP SHOP. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE DEVELOPING STRONG E-NE LOW
LEVEL JET AND HOW CLOSE THIS WILL COME TO THE E COAST...OR IF IT
REMAINS N OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW MEANDER THROUGH LATE THU...THEN LOOKS TO
SLOWLY EXIT TO NOVA SCOTIA...THOUGH STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES NOTED
ON OPERATIONAL MODELS. GENERAL SIGNAL ON DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS SIGNALING IMPROVED CONDITIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THURSDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHERE HIGHER TIMING
UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AS IT SHIFTS SE
OUT THE EASTERN LAKES EARLY TUE. QUICKLY DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT...WHILE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO FORM TUE
NIGHT SOMEWHERE OFF THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST. AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND FROM E-W ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING BAND OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL OFFSHORE...BUT QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER SOME OF
THIS WILL WORK INLAND. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER PRECIP MAKE IT INTO NE
MA/S CENTRAL NH OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.

QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT STRONGER E-NE WINDS THAT MAY TRY TO WORK
ONSHORE WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKING AROUND THE DEVELOP
CUTOFF UPPER LOW. AT THIS POINT...STILL LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN LOW /AROUND 2-3C/KM/
BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WORK DOWN WITH ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL
TUE NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NE COASTAL MA.

HIGHS ON TUE WILL MAKE IT TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65 ALONG THE
COAST...BUT ONLY THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
EXACT TIMING AND STORM IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THOUGH DOES LOOK
LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. USING A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...QPF TOTALS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
LOOK TO BE A BIT LESS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY AROUND
1.25 INCHES ON THE S COAST RANGING UP TO 1.75 TO AROUND 2 INCHES
ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH. QPF COULD INCREASE IF HEAVIER RAIN BANDS
MOVE ACROSS...THOUGH. EXPECT STEADY RAIN FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY
HEAD NE WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE STRONG WIND THREAT TO REMAIN N OF THE
REGION...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OR SO
ACROSS NE MA INTO S CENTRAL NH DEPENDING UPON POSITION OF JET AXIS
DURING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS PUSHING N OF THE REGION...THREAT FOR
COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS LOW. SEAS DO BUILD OFF THE E MA COAST AND
COULD SEND SOME HIGHER SWELLS TOWARD THE SHORE BY WED/THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL HIGH WIND AXIS TO SEE IF IT SHIFTS
FURTHER S.  WITH INCREASING SWELLS...RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH THE WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SURFACE LOW DEPART
DURING FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING ON THIS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKS TO PUSH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON BACK SIDE INTO
FRI NIGHT ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL NH AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
PUSHES E. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FRI.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS TO BE A DRY SEASONABLE WEEKEND AS NW WINDS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT TAKE OVER. SOME QUESTION AS TO APPROACH OF FAST MOVING
H5 SHORT WAVE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY CROSSING
THE REGION SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AT SURFACE...FOR
NOW...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/N MA AS THE FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...

VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 4500 FEET. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-30 KNOTS...DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR. CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL AS CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN DURING TUE...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. LOW PROB OF E-NE WIND GUSTS
REACHING 20-25 KT ACROSS NE MA COAST TUE NIGHT/WED. CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE OVER WESTERN AREAS THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY MIDDAY. ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL
NH...MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 8 PM/00Z...
WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS CONTINUE. SEAS LINGER AT 5-6 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS. PLENTY OF CLOUDS MOVING OFF LAND WITH SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT NORTHWEST
WINDS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO JUST THE OUTER WATERS LATE AT
NIGHT.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET
DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE BUT REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO E-SE BY
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT E-NE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS N OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. LOW PROB OF GUSTS TO 30 KT
OR EVEN TO GALE FORCE LATE THU NIGHT AND WED. SEAS WILL BUILD ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS TO 5-8 FT BY EARLY WED...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS ON THE FAR OUTER WATERS...THEN UP TO 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS WED. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WED NIGHT THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG
WILL REDUCE VSBY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW ON THU BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
MAY SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING FRI. SEAS REMAIN HIGH
ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE THU
NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 191945
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
345 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...
UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND -22C WHICH IS COLD
ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH ANY
SOLAR HEATING OF THE SURFACE. EXPECT PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

OBSERVED WINDS ALOFT BELOW 850 MB ARE 25 KNOTS. MIXING WILL TAP
THESE WINDS AND SUPPORT NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND. THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. OBSERVED
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 30S WITH 20S UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO
AND WESTERN NY. WITH THIS VALUES ADVECTING OVER NEW
ENGLAND...EXPECT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS FALL
INTO THE 30S. EXPECTED VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO
FORECASTS. WE WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROST ADVISORY ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND THE MASS EAST COAST.

MODELS START TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE AT NIGHT. WITH
SUFFICIENT THICKNESS...THESE CLOUDS COULD SLOW THE COOLING AND
KEEP SOME OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WE EXPECT THE
INITIAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVILANT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
  THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
  NORTHERN NEW ENG

OVERVIEW...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID
ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH
KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE.
AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY... PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN
STREAM TROF AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION. LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL EXPAND
ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS
REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER INTERIOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND
OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE
FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES
MOVES E OF CAPE COD.

IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH.  IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES
STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENG.

THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION
APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...

VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 4500 FEET. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-30 KNOTS...DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR. CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 8 PM/00Z...
WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS CONTINUE. SEAS LINGER AT 5-6 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS. PLENTY OF CLOUDS MOVING OFF LAND WITH SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT NORTHWEST
WINDS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO JUST THE OUTER WATERS LATE AT
NIGHT.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET
DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE BUT REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST
BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE
GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REDUCE VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/KJC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191945
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
345 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...
UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND -22C WHICH IS COLD
ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH ANY
SOLAR HEATING OF THE SURFACE. EXPECT PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

OBSERVED WINDS ALOFT BELOW 850 MB ARE 25 KNOTS. MIXING WILL TAP
THESE WINDS AND SUPPORT NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND. THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. OBSERVED
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 30S WITH 20S UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO
AND WESTERN NY. WITH THIS VALUES ADVECTING OVER NEW
ENGLAND...EXPECT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS FALL
INTO THE 30S. EXPECTED VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO
FORECASTS. WE WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROST ADVISORY ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND THE MASS EAST COAST.

MODELS START TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE AT NIGHT. WITH
SUFFICIENT THICKNESS...THESE CLOUDS COULD SLOW THE COOLING AND
KEEP SOME OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WE EXPECT THE
INITIAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVILANT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
  THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
  NORTHERN NEW ENG

OVERVIEW...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID
ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH
KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE.
AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY... PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN
STREAM TROF AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION. LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL EXPAND
ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS
REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER INTERIOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND
OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE
FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES
MOVES E OF CAPE COD.

IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH.  IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES
STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENG.

THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION
APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...

VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 4500 FEET. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-30 KNOTS...DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR. CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 8 PM/00Z...
WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS CONTINUE. SEAS LINGER AT 5-6 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS. PLENTY OF CLOUDS MOVING OFF LAND WITH SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT NORTHWEST
WINDS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO JUST THE OUTER WATERS LATE AT
NIGHT.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET
DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE BUT REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST
BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE
GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REDUCE VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/KJC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191945
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
345 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...
UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND -22C WHICH IS COLD
ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH ANY
SOLAR HEATING OF THE SURFACE. EXPECT PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

OBSERVED WINDS ALOFT BELOW 850 MB ARE 25 KNOTS. MIXING WILL TAP
THESE WINDS AND SUPPORT NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND. THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. OBSERVED
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 30S WITH 20S UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO
AND WESTERN NY. WITH THIS VALUES ADVECTING OVER NEW
ENGLAND...EXPECT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS FALL
INTO THE 30S. EXPECTED VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO
FORECASTS. WE WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROST ADVISORY ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND THE MASS EAST COAST.

MODELS START TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE AT NIGHT. WITH
SUFFICIENT THICKNESS...THESE CLOUDS COULD SLOW THE COOLING AND
KEEP SOME OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WE EXPECT THE
INITIAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVILANT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
  THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
  NORTHERN NEW ENG

OVERVIEW...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID
ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH
KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE.
AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY... PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN
STREAM TROF AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION. LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL EXPAND
ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS
REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER INTERIOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND
OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE
FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES
MOVES E OF CAPE COD.

IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH.  IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES
STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENG.

THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION
APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...

VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 4500 FEET. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-30 KNOTS...DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR. CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 8 PM/00Z...
WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS CONTINUE. SEAS LINGER AT 5-6 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS. PLENTY OF CLOUDS MOVING OFF LAND WITH SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT NORTHWEST
WINDS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO JUST THE OUTER WATERS LATE AT
NIGHT.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET
DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE BUT REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST
BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE
GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REDUCE VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/KJC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191945
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
345 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...
UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND -22C WHICH IS COLD
ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH ANY
SOLAR HEATING OF THE SURFACE. EXPECT PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

OBSERVED WINDS ALOFT BELOW 850 MB ARE 25 KNOTS. MIXING WILL TAP
THESE WINDS AND SUPPORT NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND. THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. OBSERVED
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 30S WITH 20S UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO
AND WESTERN NY. WITH THIS VALUES ADVECTING OVER NEW
ENGLAND...EXPECT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS FALL
INTO THE 30S. EXPECTED VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO
FORECASTS. WE WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROST ADVISORY ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND THE MASS EAST COAST.

MODELS START TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE AT NIGHT. WITH
SUFFICIENT THICKNESS...THESE CLOUDS COULD SLOW THE COOLING AND
KEEP SOME OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WE EXPECT THE
INITIAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVILANT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
  THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
  NORTHERN NEW ENG

OVERVIEW...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID
ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH
KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE.
AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY... PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN
STREAM TROF AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION. LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL EXPAND
ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS
REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER INTERIOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND
OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE
FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES
MOVES E OF CAPE COD.

IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH.  IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES
STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENG.

THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION
APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...

VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 4500 FEET. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-30 KNOTS...DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR. CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 8 PM/00Z...
WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS CONTINUE. SEAS LINGER AT 5-6 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS. PLENTY OF CLOUDS MOVING OFF LAND WITH SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT NORTHWEST
WINDS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO JUST THE OUTER WATERS LATE AT
NIGHT.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET
DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE BUT REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST
BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE
GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REDUCE VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/KJC




000
FXUS61 KGYX 191911
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
311 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ABUNDANT UPSTREAM MOISTURE AND
ROBUST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES RIGHT DOWN TO THE COAST WHERE FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN POSTED. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...NORTHERN ZONES WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SEND HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
SHOULD STILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND IN THE 40S NORTH.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK OVER-RUNNING AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN WESTERN ZONES MONDAY
NIGHT BUT THESE SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE THE UPPER LOW WHICH CUTS OFF OVER THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
AND SLOWLY SPINS OVER THE AREA BEFORE PULLING OUT ON FRIDAY. FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE COMPUTER MODELS THAT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY... DRIFTING
TOWARD CAPE COD WEDNESDAY... THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY... AND
NOVA SCOTIA BY FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE A PRETTY GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FLOWING NORTHWARD... WITH LIFT FROM THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAUSING ALL THAT MOISTURE TO BE DEPOSITED AS
RAIN OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RAIN COULD BEGIN AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY AS BROAD LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW COULD BRING
SHOWERS. BUT THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH RAIN CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. WITH LOW
PRESSURE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY THERE SHOULD BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT.

OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD A TOTAL OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED. IT IS STILL HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL AS PINPOINTING WHERE THE RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP IN A CUT
OFF LOW TYPE SCENARIO LIKE THIS IS FAIRLY DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT.
BUT IT APPEARS THAT MAINE MIGHT BE HIT A BIT HARDER THAN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH AREAS FROM PORTLAND NORTHWARD SEEING THE MOST RAIN.
WITH THIS MUCH RAIN FORECAST... FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY.
ALTHOUGH RAIN RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME... THE
DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO CAUSE RIVER
FLOODING AS STREAMS AND RIVERS SWELL FROM THE PROLONGED RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL FOR HIGHS BUT WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... CLOUD COVER...
AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS BEGIN DETERIORATING ON TUESDAY TO MVFR/IFR
IN RAIN. SHOULD SEE IFR/LIFR COMMONPLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE. NORTH/WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONDITIONS
MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS MAY KEEP CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND TRACKS SLOWLY TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE GULF OF MAINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. WINDS
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE IN THE HIGH END OF THE ADVISORY RANGE TO LOW
END GALE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN PRODUCING 10 FT WAVES.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY FRIDAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

KIMBLE



000
FXUS61 KBOX 191808
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
208 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...
UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND -22C WHICH IS COLD
ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH ANY
SOLAR HEATING OF THE SURFACE. EXPECT PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

OBSERVED WINDS ALOFT BELOW 850 MB ARE 25 KNOTS. MIXING WILL TAP
THESE WINDS AND SUPPORT NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND. THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. OBSERVED
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 30S WITH 20S UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO
AND WESTERN NY. WITH THIS VALUES ADVECTING OVER NEW
ENGLAND...EXPECT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS FALL
INTO THE 30S. EXPECTED VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO
FORECASTS. WE WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROST ADVISORY ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND THE MASS EAST COAST.

MODELS START TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE AT NIGHT. WITH
SUFFICIENT THICKNESS...THESE CLOUDS COULD SLOW THE COOLING AND
KEEP SOME OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WE EXPECT THE
INITIAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVILANT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
  THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
  NORTHERN NEW ENG

OVERVIEW...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID
ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH
KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE.
AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY... PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN
STREAM TROF AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION. LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL EXPAND
ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS
REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER INTERIOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND
OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE
FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES
MOVES E OF CAPE COD.

IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH.  IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES
STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENG.

THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION
APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...

VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 4500 FEET. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-30 KNOTS...DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR. CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTS WILL DROP FROM 30 KTS TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS
CLOSER. IN FACT SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL STAY UP...AROUND 8 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE
GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REDUCE VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191808
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
208 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...
UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND -22C WHICH IS COLD
ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH ANY
SOLAR HEATING OF THE SURFACE. EXPECT PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

OBSERVED WINDS ALOFT BELOW 850 MB ARE 25 KNOTS. MIXING WILL TAP
THESE WINDS AND SUPPORT NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND. THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. OBSERVED
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 30S WITH 20S UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO
AND WESTERN NY. WITH THIS VALUES ADVECTING OVER NEW
ENGLAND...EXPECT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS FALL
INTO THE 30S. EXPECTED VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO
FORECASTS. WE WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROST ADVISORY ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND THE MASS EAST COAST.

MODELS START TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE AT NIGHT. WITH
SUFFICIENT THICKNESS...THESE CLOUDS COULD SLOW THE COOLING AND
KEEP SOME OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WE EXPECT THE
INITIAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVILANT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
  THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
  NORTHERN NEW ENG

OVERVIEW...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID
ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH
KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE.
AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY... PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN
STREAM TROF AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION. LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL EXPAND
ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS
REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER INTERIOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND
OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE
FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES
MOVES E OF CAPE COD.

IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH.  IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES
STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENG.

THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION
APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...

VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 4500 FEET. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-30 KNOTS...DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR. CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTS WILL DROP FROM 30 KTS TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS
CLOSER. IN FACT SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL STAY UP...AROUND 8 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE
GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REDUCE VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 191407
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1007 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT USERS IN A CHILLY AIRMASS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GIVE TO SOME
MODERATION MON ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN...BUT LATEST FORECASTS INDICATE THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE
ALIGNED TO THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

TROUGH AT 500 MB WITH AXIS FROM JUST WEST OF MONTREAL THROUGH
EASTERN NY AND THE DELAWARE VALLEY OF PA/NJ. OBSERVED 60 KNOTS AT
THIS LEVEL OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE
TROUGH ALONG THROUGH THE DAY. OBSERVED TEMPS -16C AT CHATHAM AND
-22C AT ALBANY...THEN -20C AT BUFFALO.

EXPECT COOLING TEMPS ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES PAST...TEMPS ALOFT WILL START TO WARM
LATER IN THE DAY. THE INITIAL COOLING ALOFT WILL DESTABILIZE THE
AIRMASS AND MAY WORK WITH THE MECHANICAL LIFT OF THE TROUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AS WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT THE AIRMASS WILL RESTABILIZE AND
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH.

SIGNS OF CLEARING IN NH AND WESTERN MASS. BUT UNTIL THE
TROUGH/COLD POOL MOVE PAST...ANY SUN SHOULD GENERATE DIURNAL
CLOUDS AND EITHER PARTIALLY OR TOTALLY FILL IN THE GAP. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED CLEARING LATER TODAY AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH.

OBSERVED WINDS ALOFT BELOW 850 MB ARE 25 KNOTS. MIXING WILL TAP
THESE WINDS AND SUPPORT NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
HELP DECOUPLE THE WINDS...ESP AWAY FROM COASTAL REGIONS. ANTICIPATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS UP STREAM ARE IN THE UPPER 20S SO ANTICIPATE THIS
DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE
COASTLINE AND ISLANDS WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ARE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES
AT AND BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE CONVERTED THE FREEZE
WATCH TO WARNING AND EXPANDED IT AS MANY SITES WILL DROP CLOSE TO
32F IN OVER HALF OF THE ZONE. ALSO HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADV ACROSS
COASTAL REGIONS WHERE THE WIND WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY UP. ONLY MAJOR
CONCERN IS THAT THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL AND
NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP AS LOW AS FORECASTED. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL WIN OUT. FINALLY WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FROST ADV FOR MARTHA`S VINEYARD AS IT IS ONE OF OUR MAJOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING SITES...ONLY CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS
TO STAY UP...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE KEEPS THEM CALM OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS
THIS IS VERY CHILLY AIRMASS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TOMORROW...

WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ALLOWING
FOR QUIET WEATHER AND TEMPS TO MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE. OTHERWISE
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
  THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
  NORTHERN NEW ENG

OVERVIEW...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID
ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH
KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE.
AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM TROF
AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. LIGHT
RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE MON NIGHT EXPANDING ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD
DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER
INTERIOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND
OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE
FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES
MOVES E OF CAPE COD.

IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH.  IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES
STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENG.

THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION
APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT
THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT POCKETS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTS WILL DROP FROM 30 KTS TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS
CLOSER. IN FACT SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL STAY UP...AROUND 8 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE
GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REDUCE VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191407
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1007 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT USERS IN A CHILLY AIRMASS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GIVE TO SOME
MODERATION MON ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN...BUT LATEST FORECASTS INDICATE THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE
ALIGNED TO THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

TROUGH AT 500 MB WITH AXIS FROM JUST WEST OF MONTREAL THROUGH
EASTERN NY AND THE DELAWARE VALLEY OF PA/NJ. OBSERVED 60 KNOTS AT
THIS LEVEL OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE
TROUGH ALONG THROUGH THE DAY. OBSERVED TEMPS -16C AT CHATHAM AND
-22C AT ALBANY...THEN -20C AT BUFFALO.

EXPECT COOLING TEMPS ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES PAST...TEMPS ALOFT WILL START TO WARM
LATER IN THE DAY. THE INITIAL COOLING ALOFT WILL DESTABILIZE THE
AIRMASS AND MAY WORK WITH THE MECHANICAL LIFT OF THE TROUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AS WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT THE AIRMASS WILL RESTABILIZE AND
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH.

SIGNS OF CLEARING IN NH AND WESTERN MASS. BUT UNTIL THE
TROUGH/COLD POOL MOVE PAST...ANY SUN SHOULD GENERATE DIURNAL
CLOUDS AND EITHER PARTIALLY OR TOTALLY FILL IN THE GAP. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED CLEARING LATER TODAY AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH.

OBSERVED WINDS ALOFT BELOW 850 MB ARE 25 KNOTS. MIXING WILL TAP
THESE WINDS AND SUPPORT NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
HELP DECOUPLE THE WINDS...ESP AWAY FROM COASTAL REGIONS. ANTICIPATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS UP STREAM ARE IN THE UPPER 20S SO ANTICIPATE THIS
DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE
COASTLINE AND ISLANDS WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ARE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES
AT AND BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE CONVERTED THE FREEZE
WATCH TO WARNING AND EXPANDED IT AS MANY SITES WILL DROP CLOSE TO
32F IN OVER HALF OF THE ZONE. ALSO HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADV ACROSS
COASTAL REGIONS WHERE THE WIND WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY UP. ONLY MAJOR
CONCERN IS THAT THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL AND
NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP AS LOW AS FORECASTED. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL WIN OUT. FINALLY WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FROST ADV FOR MARTHA`S VINEYARD AS IT IS ONE OF OUR MAJOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING SITES...ONLY CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS
TO STAY UP...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE KEEPS THEM CALM OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS
THIS IS VERY CHILLY AIRMASS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TOMORROW...

WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ALLOWING
FOR QUIET WEATHER AND TEMPS TO MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE. OTHERWISE
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
  THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
  NORTHERN NEW ENG

OVERVIEW...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID
ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH
KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE.
AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM TROF
AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. LIGHT
RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE MON NIGHT EXPANDING ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD
DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER
INTERIOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND
OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE
FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES
MOVES E OF CAPE COD.

IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH.  IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES
STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENG.

THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION
APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT
THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT POCKETS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTS WILL DROP FROM 30 KTS TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS
CLOSER. IN FACT SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL STAY UP...AROUND 8 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE
GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REDUCE VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191407
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1007 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT USERS IN A CHILLY AIRMASS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GIVE TO SOME
MODERATION MON ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN...BUT LATEST FORECASTS INDICATE THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE
ALIGNED TO THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

TROUGH AT 500 MB WITH AXIS FROM JUST WEST OF MONTREAL THROUGH
EASTERN NY AND THE DELAWARE VALLEY OF PA/NJ. OBSERVED 60 KNOTS AT
THIS LEVEL OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE
TROUGH ALONG THROUGH THE DAY. OBSERVED TEMPS -16C AT CHATHAM AND
-22C AT ALBANY...THEN -20C AT BUFFALO.

EXPECT COOLING TEMPS ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES PAST...TEMPS ALOFT WILL START TO WARM
LATER IN THE DAY. THE INITIAL COOLING ALOFT WILL DESTABILIZE THE
AIRMASS AND MAY WORK WITH THE MECHANICAL LIFT OF THE TROUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AS WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT THE AIRMASS WILL RESTABILIZE AND
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH.

SIGNS OF CLEARING IN NH AND WESTERN MASS. BUT UNTIL THE
TROUGH/COLD POOL MOVE PAST...ANY SUN SHOULD GENERATE DIURNAL
CLOUDS AND EITHER PARTIALLY OR TOTALLY FILL IN THE GAP. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED CLEARING LATER TODAY AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH.

OBSERVED WINDS ALOFT BELOW 850 MB ARE 25 KNOTS. MIXING WILL TAP
THESE WINDS AND SUPPORT NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
HELP DECOUPLE THE WINDS...ESP AWAY FROM COASTAL REGIONS. ANTICIPATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS UP STREAM ARE IN THE UPPER 20S SO ANTICIPATE THIS
DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE
COASTLINE AND ISLANDS WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ARE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES
AT AND BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE CONVERTED THE FREEZE
WATCH TO WARNING AND EXPANDED IT AS MANY SITES WILL DROP CLOSE TO
32F IN OVER HALF OF THE ZONE. ALSO HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADV ACROSS
COASTAL REGIONS WHERE THE WIND WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY UP. ONLY MAJOR
CONCERN IS THAT THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL AND
NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP AS LOW AS FORECASTED. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL WIN OUT. FINALLY WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FROST ADV FOR MARTHA`S VINEYARD AS IT IS ONE OF OUR MAJOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING SITES...ONLY CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS
TO STAY UP...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE KEEPS THEM CALM OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS
THIS IS VERY CHILLY AIRMASS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TOMORROW...

WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ALLOWING
FOR QUIET WEATHER AND TEMPS TO MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE. OTHERWISE
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
  THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
  NORTHERN NEW ENG

OVERVIEW...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID
ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH
KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE.
AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM TROF
AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. LIGHT
RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE MON NIGHT EXPANDING ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD
DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER
INTERIOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND
OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE
FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES
MOVES E OF CAPE COD.

IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH.  IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES
STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENG.

THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION
APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT
THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT POCKETS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTS WILL DROP FROM 30 KTS TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS
CLOSER. IN FACT SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL STAY UP...AROUND 8 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE
GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REDUCE VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191407
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1007 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT USERS IN A CHILLY AIRMASS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GIVE TO SOME
MODERATION MON ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN...BUT LATEST FORECASTS INDICATE THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE
ALIGNED TO THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

TROUGH AT 500 MB WITH AXIS FROM JUST WEST OF MONTREAL THROUGH
EASTERN NY AND THE DELAWARE VALLEY OF PA/NJ. OBSERVED 60 KNOTS AT
THIS LEVEL OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE
TROUGH ALONG THROUGH THE DAY. OBSERVED TEMPS -16C AT CHATHAM AND
-22C AT ALBANY...THEN -20C AT BUFFALO.

EXPECT COOLING TEMPS ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES PAST...TEMPS ALOFT WILL START TO WARM
LATER IN THE DAY. THE INITIAL COOLING ALOFT WILL DESTABILIZE THE
AIRMASS AND MAY WORK WITH THE MECHANICAL LIFT OF THE TROUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AS WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT THE AIRMASS WILL RESTABILIZE AND
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH.

SIGNS OF CLEARING IN NH AND WESTERN MASS. BUT UNTIL THE
TROUGH/COLD POOL MOVE PAST...ANY SUN SHOULD GENERATE DIURNAL
CLOUDS AND EITHER PARTIALLY OR TOTALLY FILL IN THE GAP. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED CLEARING LATER TODAY AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH.

OBSERVED WINDS ALOFT BELOW 850 MB ARE 25 KNOTS. MIXING WILL TAP
THESE WINDS AND SUPPORT NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
HELP DECOUPLE THE WINDS...ESP AWAY FROM COASTAL REGIONS. ANTICIPATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS UP STREAM ARE IN THE UPPER 20S SO ANTICIPATE THIS
DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE
COASTLINE AND ISLANDS WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ARE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES
AT AND BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE CONVERTED THE FREEZE
WATCH TO WARNING AND EXPANDED IT AS MANY SITES WILL DROP CLOSE TO
32F IN OVER HALF OF THE ZONE. ALSO HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADV ACROSS
COASTAL REGIONS WHERE THE WIND WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY UP. ONLY MAJOR
CONCERN IS THAT THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL AND
NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP AS LOW AS FORECASTED. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL WIN OUT. FINALLY WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FROST ADV FOR MARTHA`S VINEYARD AS IT IS ONE OF OUR MAJOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING SITES...ONLY CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS
TO STAY UP...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE KEEPS THEM CALM OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS
THIS IS VERY CHILLY AIRMASS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TOMORROW...

WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ALLOWING
FOR QUIET WEATHER AND TEMPS TO MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE. OTHERWISE
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
  THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
  NORTHERN NEW ENG

OVERVIEW...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID
ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH
KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE.
AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM TROF
AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. LIGHT
RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE MON NIGHT EXPANDING ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD
DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER
INTERIOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND
OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE
FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES
MOVES E OF CAPE COD.

IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH.  IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES
STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENG.

THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION
APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT
THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT POCKETS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTS WILL DROP FROM 30 KTS TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS
CLOSER. IN FACT SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL STAY UP...AROUND 8 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE
GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REDUCE VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191107
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
707 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT USERS IN A CHILLY AIRMASS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GIVE TO SOME
MODERATION MON ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN...BUT LATEST FORECASTS INDICATE THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE
ALIGNED TO THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
SHARP MID LEVEL TROF AND ACCOMPANYING -22C AIR AT 500 MB WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS SNE THROUGH 18Z. LOTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
AND RADAR SHOWS SCT SHOWERS MOVING E FROM LONG ISLAND. MOCLDY
SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF
SHOWER...THEN TREND WILL BE FOR PARTIAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS TROF AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST. UPDATED NEAR
TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY THIS MORNING. FALL HAS
OFFICIALLY RETURNED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH TEMPS WILL
ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NOT THE 70SWE HAVE BEEN
USED TO OVER THE PREVIOUS WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL
BE MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION
BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL DROP ESP AFTER 18Z.

LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS COULD KEEP IT CLOUDY FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION...SO TEMPS MAY BE A TAD LOWER THEN FORECASTED.
DUE TO STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COULD SEE GUSTY NW WINDS BETWEEN
25-30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
HELP DECOUPLE THE WINDS...ESP AWAY FROM COASTAL REGIONS. ANTICIPATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS UP STREAM ARE IN THE UPPER 20S SO ANTICIPATE THIS
DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE
COASTLINE AND ISLANDS WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ARE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES
AT AND BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE CONVERTED THE FREEZE
WATCH TO WARNING AND EXPANDED IT AS MANY SITES WILL DROP CLOSE TO
32F IN OVER HALF OF THE ZONE. ALSO HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADV ACROSS
COASTAL REGIONS WHERE THE WIND WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY UP. ONLY MAJOR
CONCERN IS THAT THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL AND
NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP AS LOW AS FORECASTED. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL WIN OUT. FINALLY WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FROST ADV FOR MARTHA`S VINEYARD AS IT IS ONE OF OUR MAJOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING SITES...ONLY CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS
TO STAY UP...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE KEEPS THEM CALM OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS
THIS IS VERY CHILLY AIRMASS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TOMORROW...

WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ALLOWING
FOR QUIET WEATHER AND TEMPS TO MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE. OTHERWISE
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
  THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
  NORTHERN NEW ENG

OVERVIEW...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID
ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH
KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE.
AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM TROF
AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. LIGHT
RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE MON NIGHT EXPANDING ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD
DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER
INTERIOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND
OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE
FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES
MOVES E OF CAPE COD.

IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH.  IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES
STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENG.

THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION
APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT POCKETS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE...LOW PROB IF A FEW GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH DIMINISHED A LITTLE
FROM YESTERDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTS WILL DROP FROM 30 KTS TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS
CLOSER. IN FACT SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL STAY UP...AROUND 8 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE
GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REDUCE VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191107
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
707 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT USERS IN A CHILLY AIRMASS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GIVE TO SOME
MODERATION MON ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN...BUT LATEST FORECASTS INDICATE THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE
ALIGNED TO THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
SHARP MID LEVEL TROF AND ACCOMPANYING -22C AIR AT 500 MB WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS SNE THROUGH 18Z. LOTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
AND RADAR SHOWS SCT SHOWERS MOVING E FROM LONG ISLAND. MOCLDY
SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF
SHOWER...THEN TREND WILL BE FOR PARTIAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS TROF AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST. UPDATED NEAR
TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY THIS MORNING. FALL HAS
OFFICIALLY RETURNED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH TEMPS WILL
ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NOT THE 70SWE HAVE BEEN
USED TO OVER THE PREVIOUS WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL
BE MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION
BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL DROP ESP AFTER 18Z.

LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS COULD KEEP IT CLOUDY FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION...SO TEMPS MAY BE A TAD LOWER THEN FORECASTED.
DUE TO STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COULD SEE GUSTY NW WINDS BETWEEN
25-30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
HELP DECOUPLE THE WINDS...ESP AWAY FROM COASTAL REGIONS. ANTICIPATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS UP STREAM ARE IN THE UPPER 20S SO ANTICIPATE THIS
DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE
COASTLINE AND ISLANDS WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ARE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES
AT AND BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE CONVERTED THE FREEZE
WATCH TO WARNING AND EXPANDED IT AS MANY SITES WILL DROP CLOSE TO
32F IN OVER HALF OF THE ZONE. ALSO HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADV ACROSS
COASTAL REGIONS WHERE THE WIND WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY UP. ONLY MAJOR
CONCERN IS THAT THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL AND
NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP AS LOW AS FORECASTED. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL WIN OUT. FINALLY WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FROST ADV FOR MARTHA`S VINEYARD AS IT IS ONE OF OUR MAJOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING SITES...ONLY CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS
TO STAY UP...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE KEEPS THEM CALM OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS
THIS IS VERY CHILLY AIRMASS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TOMORROW...

WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ALLOWING
FOR QUIET WEATHER AND TEMPS TO MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE. OTHERWISE
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
  THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
  NORTHERN NEW ENG

OVERVIEW...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID
ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH
KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE.
AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM TROF
AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. LIGHT
RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE MON NIGHT EXPANDING ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD
DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER
INTERIOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND
OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE
FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES
MOVES E OF CAPE COD.

IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH.  IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES
STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENG.

THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION
APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT POCKETS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE...LOW PROB IF A FEW GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH DIMINISHED A LITTLE
FROM YESTERDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTS WILL DROP FROM 30 KTS TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS
CLOSER. IN FACT SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL STAY UP...AROUND 8 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE
GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REDUCE VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KGYX 191053
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
653 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON SATELLITE DATA AND LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA NOW HAS OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WITH ANY PRECIP MAINLY CONFINED TO UPSTATE NEW YORK
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

EXPECT UPSLOPE SHOWERS (BOTH RAIN AND SNOW) TODAY...MOSTLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON RUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREV DISC...
MESOSCALE MODEL SUITE THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW
ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY
WINDS AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH COOLER
DAY TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. IN FACT...THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY MIXED IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ALONG THE NW FACING HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPING WILL OCCUR.
FURTHER SOUTH...DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THROUGH THE 30S OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MANY AREAS ALONG THE COAST TO BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FREEZE WARNINGS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT HAS NOT ALREADY
RECEIVED A KILLING FREEZE. QUESTION REMAINS WITH THE GRADIENT
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE MAY KEEP
SOME AREAS JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

SOME CLOUDINESS WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION MONDAY AS THE NEXT LONG
WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MOVES
SOUTHEAST. PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST DURING THE
DAY...ALLOWING FOR MONDAY TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT BEGINS WHAT WILL BE QUITE A LONG STRETCH OF WET
WEATHER FOR THE NORTHEAST. ALOFT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. DOWNSTREAM OF US IN THE ATLANTIC A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH AND
SUGGESTIONS OF A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING IN THE EAST ATLANTIC SET
THE STAGE FOR A BLOCKING PATTERN. A LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP AND ROTATED AROUND THE
UPPER LOW THE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS OFF SHORE IN THE ATLANTIC,
SETTING US UP FOR A CLASSIC NOR`EASTER BY WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE
ISN`T THE ONLY LOW DEVELOPING AS THE 500MB LOW ALSO CLOSES OFF
JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. WITH A CUT OFF LOW OVERHEAD AND
BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM THERE IS NOWHERE FOR THE
SURFACE LOW TO GO... AND IT SITS AND SPINS IN THE GULF OF MAINE
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS WITH ANY LONG RANGE FORECAST... THIS SCENARIO IS NOT SET IN
STONE. ON THE PLUS SIDE...THE BLOCKING PATTERN HAS ONLY BEGUN TO
FORM IN THE N ATLANTIC... WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A
STRONG LOW OFF SPAIN... HOWEVER THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE GONZALO
STILL NEED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WAY FOR THE HIGH TO DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SHIFT IN THE LOCATION OF THE BLOCK OR A DELAY
IN ITS FORMATION COULD STILL SPARE US SOME MOISTURE FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. ON THE OTHER HAND... NAEFS ANOMALIES SHOW A PERIOD OF
OVER 48 HOURS WITH 90TH PERCENTILE MOISTURE... AND ANALOG GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST VERY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE A REALISTIC
POSSIBILITY. OVERALL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN MIDWEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE FLASHIER RIVERS
REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE... AS WELL AS MORE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IN FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT OVER INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM... CEILINGS WILL BEING TO LOWER TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
MVFR AND REMAIN IN IFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND
SHEAR MAY BE A CONCERN FOR COASTAL SITES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE JET
PASSES OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

LONG TERM... DEVELOPING LOW WILL BRING WINDS AND SEAS UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON... REACHING GALE STRENGTH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
THE OUTER WATERS AND UPPER END OF SMALL CRAFT FOR THE BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 191053
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
653 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON SATELLITE DATA AND LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA NOW HAS OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WITH ANY PRECIP MAINLY CONFINED TO UPSTATE NEW YORK
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

EXPECT UPSLOPE SHOWERS (BOTH RAIN AND SNOW) TODAY...MOSTLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON RUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREV DISC...
MESOSCALE MODEL SUITE THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW
ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY
WINDS AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH COOLER
DAY TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. IN FACT...THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY MIXED IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ALONG THE NW FACING HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPING WILL OCCUR.
FURTHER SOUTH...DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THROUGH THE 30S OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MANY AREAS ALONG THE COAST TO BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FREEZE WARNINGS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT HAS NOT ALREADY
RECEIVED A KILLING FREEZE. QUESTION REMAINS WITH THE GRADIENT
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE MAY KEEP
SOME AREAS JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

SOME CLOUDINESS WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION MONDAY AS THE NEXT LONG
WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MOVES
SOUTHEAST. PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST DURING THE
DAY...ALLOWING FOR MONDAY TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT BEGINS WHAT WILL BE QUITE A LONG STRETCH OF WET
WEATHER FOR THE NORTHEAST. ALOFT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. DOWNSTREAM OF US IN THE ATLANTIC A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH AND
SUGGESTIONS OF A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING IN THE EAST ATLANTIC SET
THE STAGE FOR A BLOCKING PATTERN. A LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP AND ROTATED AROUND THE
UPPER LOW THE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS OFF SHORE IN THE ATLANTIC,
SETTING US UP FOR A CLASSIC NOR`EASTER BY WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE
ISN`T THE ONLY LOW DEVELOPING AS THE 500MB LOW ALSO CLOSES OFF
JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. WITH A CUT OFF LOW OVERHEAD AND
BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM THERE IS NOWHERE FOR THE
SURFACE LOW TO GO... AND IT SITS AND SPINS IN THE GULF OF MAINE
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS WITH ANY LONG RANGE FORECAST... THIS SCENARIO IS NOT SET IN
STONE. ON THE PLUS SIDE...THE BLOCKING PATTERN HAS ONLY BEGUN TO
FORM IN THE N ATLANTIC... WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A
STRONG LOW OFF SPAIN... HOWEVER THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE GONZALO
STILL NEED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WAY FOR THE HIGH TO DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SHIFT IN THE LOCATION OF THE BLOCK OR A DELAY
IN ITS FORMATION COULD STILL SPARE US SOME MOISTURE FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. ON THE OTHER HAND... NAEFS ANOMALIES SHOW A PERIOD OF
OVER 48 HOURS WITH 90TH PERCENTILE MOISTURE... AND ANALOG GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST VERY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE A REALISTIC
POSSIBILITY. OVERALL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN MIDWEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE FLASHIER RIVERS
REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE... AS WELL AS MORE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IN FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT OVER INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM... CEILINGS WILL BEING TO LOWER TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
MVFR AND REMAIN IN IFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND
SHEAR MAY BE A CONCERN FOR COASTAL SITES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE JET
PASSES OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

LONG TERM... DEVELOPING LOW WILL BRING WINDS AND SEAS UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON... REACHING GALE STRENGTH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
THE OUTER WATERS AND UPPER END OF SMALL CRAFT FOR THE BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 191053
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
653 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON SATELLITE DATA AND LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA NOW HAS OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WITH ANY PRECIP MAINLY CONFINED TO UPSTATE NEW YORK
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

EXPECT UPSLOPE SHOWERS (BOTH RAIN AND SNOW) TODAY...MOSTLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON RUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREV DISC...
MESOSCALE MODEL SUITE THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW
ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY
WINDS AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH COOLER
DAY TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. IN FACT...THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY MIXED IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ALONG THE NW FACING HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPING WILL OCCUR.
FURTHER SOUTH...DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THROUGH THE 30S OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MANY AREAS ALONG THE COAST TO BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FREEZE WARNINGS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT HAS NOT ALREADY
RECEIVED A KILLING FREEZE. QUESTION REMAINS WITH THE GRADIENT
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE MAY KEEP
SOME AREAS JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

SOME CLOUDINESS WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION MONDAY AS THE NEXT LONG
WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MOVES
SOUTHEAST. PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST DURING THE
DAY...ALLOWING FOR MONDAY TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT BEGINS WHAT WILL BE QUITE A LONG STRETCH OF WET
WEATHER FOR THE NORTHEAST. ALOFT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. DOWNSTREAM OF US IN THE ATLANTIC A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH AND
SUGGESTIONS OF A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING IN THE EAST ATLANTIC SET
THE STAGE FOR A BLOCKING PATTERN. A LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP AND ROTATED AROUND THE
UPPER LOW THE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS OFF SHORE IN THE ATLANTIC,
SETTING US UP FOR A CLASSIC NOR`EASTER BY WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE
ISN`T THE ONLY LOW DEVELOPING AS THE 500MB LOW ALSO CLOSES OFF
JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. WITH A CUT OFF LOW OVERHEAD AND
BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM THERE IS NOWHERE FOR THE
SURFACE LOW TO GO... AND IT SITS AND SPINS IN THE GULF OF MAINE
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS WITH ANY LONG RANGE FORECAST... THIS SCENARIO IS NOT SET IN
STONE. ON THE PLUS SIDE...THE BLOCKING PATTERN HAS ONLY BEGUN TO
FORM IN THE N ATLANTIC... WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A
STRONG LOW OFF SPAIN... HOWEVER THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE GONZALO
STILL NEED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WAY FOR THE HIGH TO DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SHIFT IN THE LOCATION OF THE BLOCK OR A DELAY
IN ITS FORMATION COULD STILL SPARE US SOME MOISTURE FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. ON THE OTHER HAND... NAEFS ANOMALIES SHOW A PERIOD OF
OVER 48 HOURS WITH 90TH PERCENTILE MOISTURE... AND ANALOG GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST VERY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE A REALISTIC
POSSIBILITY. OVERALL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN MIDWEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE FLASHIER RIVERS
REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE... AS WELL AS MORE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IN FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT OVER INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM... CEILINGS WILL BEING TO LOWER TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
MVFR AND REMAIN IN IFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND
SHEAR MAY BE A CONCERN FOR COASTAL SITES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE JET
PASSES OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

LONG TERM... DEVELOPING LOW WILL BRING WINDS AND SEAS UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON... REACHING GALE STRENGTH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
THE OUTER WATERS AND UPPER END OF SMALL CRAFT FOR THE BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 191053
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
653 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON SATELLITE DATA AND LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA NOW HAS OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WITH ANY PRECIP MAINLY CONFINED TO UPSTATE NEW YORK
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

EXPECT UPSLOPE SHOWERS (BOTH RAIN AND SNOW) TODAY...MOSTLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON RUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREV DISC...
MESOSCALE MODEL SUITE THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW
ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY
WINDS AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH COOLER
DAY TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. IN FACT...THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY MIXED IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ALONG THE NW FACING HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPING WILL OCCUR.
FURTHER SOUTH...DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THROUGH THE 30S OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MANY AREAS ALONG THE COAST TO BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FREEZE WARNINGS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT HAS NOT ALREADY
RECEIVED A KILLING FREEZE. QUESTION REMAINS WITH THE GRADIENT
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE MAY KEEP
SOME AREAS JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

SOME CLOUDINESS WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION MONDAY AS THE NEXT LONG
WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MOVES
SOUTHEAST. PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST DURING THE
DAY...ALLOWING FOR MONDAY TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT BEGINS WHAT WILL BE QUITE A LONG STRETCH OF WET
WEATHER FOR THE NORTHEAST. ALOFT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. DOWNSTREAM OF US IN THE ATLANTIC A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH AND
SUGGESTIONS OF A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING IN THE EAST ATLANTIC SET
THE STAGE FOR A BLOCKING PATTERN. A LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP AND ROTATED AROUND THE
UPPER LOW THE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS OFF SHORE IN THE ATLANTIC,
SETTING US UP FOR A CLASSIC NOR`EASTER BY WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE
ISN`T THE ONLY LOW DEVELOPING AS THE 500MB LOW ALSO CLOSES OFF
JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. WITH A CUT OFF LOW OVERHEAD AND
BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM THERE IS NOWHERE FOR THE
SURFACE LOW TO GO... AND IT SITS AND SPINS IN THE GULF OF MAINE
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS WITH ANY LONG RANGE FORECAST... THIS SCENARIO IS NOT SET IN
STONE. ON THE PLUS SIDE...THE BLOCKING PATTERN HAS ONLY BEGUN TO
FORM IN THE N ATLANTIC... WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A
STRONG LOW OFF SPAIN... HOWEVER THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE GONZALO
STILL NEED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WAY FOR THE HIGH TO DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SHIFT IN THE LOCATION OF THE BLOCK OR A DELAY
IN ITS FORMATION COULD STILL SPARE US SOME MOISTURE FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. ON THE OTHER HAND... NAEFS ANOMALIES SHOW A PERIOD OF
OVER 48 HOURS WITH 90TH PERCENTILE MOISTURE... AND ANALOG GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST VERY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE A REALISTIC
POSSIBILITY. OVERALL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN MIDWEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE FLASHIER RIVERS
REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE... AS WELL AS MORE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IN FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT OVER INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM... CEILINGS WILL BEING TO LOWER TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
MVFR AND REMAIN IN IFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND
SHEAR MAY BE A CONCERN FOR COASTAL SITES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE JET
PASSES OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

LONG TERM... DEVELOPING LOW WILL BRING WINDS AND SEAS UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON... REACHING GALE STRENGTH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
THE OUTER WATERS AND UPPER END OF SMALL CRAFT FOR THE BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KBOX 190818
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
418 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT USERS IN A CHILLY AIRMASS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GIVE TO SOME
MODERATION MON ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN...BUT LATEST FORECASTS INDICATE THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE
ALIGNED TO THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT THIS TIME WILL LINGER
INTO TODAY. ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS SNE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS
NOTED BY THE SURFACE WINDS...AS THEY SWITCH TO A MORE NW DIRECTION
RATHER THEN A WESTERLY DIRECTION. RIGHT NOW THE FRONT IS EXTENDED
FROM KASH TO KOXC. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISO SHOWERS
AS 700 MB MOISTURE AXIS AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL ALIGN OVER
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THEREFORE CONTINUED THE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT POPS.

TODAY...

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY THIS MORNING. FALL HAS
OFFICIALLY RETURNED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY
REACH INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 40S. NOT THE 70S DEGREES WE HAVE
BEEN USE TO OVER THE PREVIOUS WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION
BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL DROP ESP AFTER 18Z.

LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS COULD KEEP IT CLOUDY FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION...SO TEMPS MAY BE A TAD LOWER THEN FORECASTED.
DUE TO STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COULD SEE GUSTY NW WINDS BETWEEN
25-30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
HELP DECOUPLE THE WINDS...ESP AWAY FROM COASTAL REGIONS. ANTICIPATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS UP STREAM ARE IN THE UPPER 20S SO ANTICIPATE THIS
DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE
COASTLINE AND ISLANDS WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ARE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES
AT AND BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE CONVERTED THE FREEZE
WATCH TO WARNING AND EXPANDED IT AS MANY SITES WILL DROP CLOSE TO
32F IN OVER HALF OF THE ZONE. ALSO HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADV ACROSS
COASTAL REGIONS WHERE THE WIND WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY UP. ONLY MAJOR
CONCERN IS THAT THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL AND
NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP AS LOW AS FORECASTED. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL WIN OUT. FINALLY WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FROST ADV FOR MARTHA`S VINEYARD AS IT IS ONE OF OUR MAJOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING SITES...ONLY CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS
TO STAY UP...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE KEEPS THEM CALM OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS
THIS IS VERY CHILLY AIRMASS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TOMORROW...

WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ALLOWING
FOR QUIET WEATHER AND TEMPS TO MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE. OTHERWISE
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
  THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
  NORTHERN NEW ENG

OVERVIEW...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID
ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH
KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE.
AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM TROF
AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. LIGHT
RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE MON NIGHT EXPANDING ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD
DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER
INTERIOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND
OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE
FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES
MOVES E OF CAPE COD.

IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH.  IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES
STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENG.

THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION
APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...VFR WITH SCT MVFR MOVING ACROSS SNE EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOW PROB OF AN ISO SHOWER.

TODAY...VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25-30 KT FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT POCKETS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE...LOW PROB IF A FEW GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH DIMINISHED A LITTLE
FROM YESTERDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTS WILL DROP FROM 30 KTS TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS
CLOSER. IN FACT SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL STAY UP...AROUND 8 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE
GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REDUCE VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 190818
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
418 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT USERS IN A CHILLY AIRMASS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GIVE TO SOME
MODERATION MON ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN...BUT LATEST FORECASTS INDICATE THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE
ALIGNED TO THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT THIS TIME WILL LINGER
INTO TODAY. ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS SNE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS
NOTED BY THE SURFACE WINDS...AS THEY SWITCH TO A MORE NW DIRECTION
RATHER THEN A WESTERLY DIRECTION. RIGHT NOW THE FRONT IS EXTENDED
FROM KASH TO KOXC. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISO SHOWERS
AS 700 MB MOISTURE AXIS AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL ALIGN OVER
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THEREFORE CONTINUED THE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT POPS.

TODAY...

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY THIS MORNING. FALL HAS
OFFICIALLY RETURNED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY
REACH INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 40S. NOT THE 70S DEGREES WE HAVE
BEEN USE TO OVER THE PREVIOUS WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION
BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL DROP ESP AFTER 18Z.

LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS COULD KEEP IT CLOUDY FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION...SO TEMPS MAY BE A TAD LOWER THEN FORECASTED.
DUE TO STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COULD SEE GUSTY NW WINDS BETWEEN
25-30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
HELP DECOUPLE THE WINDS...ESP AWAY FROM COASTAL REGIONS. ANTICIPATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS UP STREAM ARE IN THE UPPER 20S SO ANTICIPATE THIS
DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE
COASTLINE AND ISLANDS WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ARE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES
AT AND BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE CONVERTED THE FREEZE
WATCH TO WARNING AND EXPANDED IT AS MANY SITES WILL DROP CLOSE TO
32F IN OVER HALF OF THE ZONE. ALSO HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADV ACROSS
COASTAL REGIONS WHERE THE WIND WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY UP. ONLY MAJOR
CONCERN IS THAT THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL AND
NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP AS LOW AS FORECASTED. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL WIN OUT. FINALLY WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FROST ADV FOR MARTHA`S VINEYARD AS IT IS ONE OF OUR MAJOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING SITES...ONLY CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS
TO STAY UP...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE KEEPS THEM CALM OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS
THIS IS VERY CHILLY AIRMASS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TOMORROW...

WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ALLOWING
FOR QUIET WEATHER AND TEMPS TO MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE. OTHERWISE
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
  THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
  NORTHERN NEW ENG

OVERVIEW...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID
ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH
KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE.
AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM TROF
AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. LIGHT
RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE MON NIGHT EXPANDING ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD
DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER
INTERIOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND
OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE
FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES
MOVES E OF CAPE COD.

IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH.  IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES
STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENG.

THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION
APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...VFR WITH SCT MVFR MOVING ACROSS SNE EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOW PROB OF AN ISO SHOWER.

TODAY...VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25-30 KT FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT POCKETS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE...LOW PROB IF A FEW GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH DIMINISHED A LITTLE
FROM YESTERDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTS WILL DROP FROM 30 KTS TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS
CLOSER. IN FACT SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL STAY UP...AROUND 8 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE
GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REDUCE VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KGYX 190654
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
254 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
MESOSCALE MODEL SUITE THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER LINE
OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS AND
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH COOLER DAY TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. IN FACT...THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
MIXED IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG THE
NW FACING HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPING WILL OCCUR. FURTHER
SOUTH...DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THROUGH THE 30S OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MANY AREAS ALONG THE COAST TO BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FREEZE WARNINGS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT HAS NOT ALREADY
RECEIVED A KILLING FREEZE. QUESTION REMAINS WITH THE GRADIENT
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE MAY KEEP
SOME AREAS JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

SOME CLOUDINESS WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION MONDAY AS THE NEXT LONG
WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MOVES
SOUTHEAST. PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST DURING THE
DAY...ALLOWING FOR MONDAY TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT BEGINS WHAT WILL BE QUITE A LONG STRETCH OF WET
WEATHER FOR THE NORTHEAST. ALOFT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. DOWNSTREAM OF US IN THE ATLANTIC A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH AND
SUGGESTIONS OF A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING IN THE EAST ATLANTIC SET
THE STAGE FOR A BLOCKING PATTERN. A LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP AND ROTATED AROUND THE
UPPER LOW THE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS OFF SHORE IN THE ATLANTIC,
SETTING US UP FOR A CLASSIC NOR`EASTER BY WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE
ISN`T THE ONLY LOW DEVELOPING AS THE 500MB LOW ALSO CLOSES OFF
JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. WITH A CUT OFF LOW OVERHEAD AND
BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM THERE IS NOWHERE FOR THE
SURFACE LOW TO GO... AND IT SITS AND SPINS IN THE GULF OF MAINE
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS WITH ANY LONG RANGE FORECAST... THIS SCENARIO IS NOT SET IN
STONE. ON THE PLUS SIDE...THE BLOCKING PATTERN HAS ONLY BEGUN TO
FORM IN THE N ATLANTIC... WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A
STRONG LOW OFF SPAIN... HOWEVER THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE GONZALO
STILL NEED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WAY FOR THE HIGH TO DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SHIFT IN THE LOCATION OF THE BLOCK OR A DELAY
IN ITS FORMATION COULD STILL SPARE US SOME MOISTURE FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. ON THE OTHER HAND... NAEFS ANOMALIES SHOW A PERIOD OF
OVER 48 HOURS WITH 90TH PERCENTILE MOISTURE... AND ANALOG GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST VERY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE A REALISTIC
POSSIBILITY. OVERALL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN MIDWEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE FLASHIER RIVERS
REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE... AS WELL AS MORE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IN FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT OVER INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM... CEILINGS WILL BEING TO LOWER TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
MVFR AND REMAIN IN IFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND
SHEAR MAY BE A CONCERN FOR COASTAL SITES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE JET
PASSES OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

LONG TERM... DEVELOPING LOW WILL BRING WINDS AND SEAS UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON... REACHING GALE STRENGTH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
THE OUTER WATERS AND UPPER END OF SMALL CRAFT FOR THE BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
MC/JC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 190159
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT USERS IN A CHILLY AIRMASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY ALONG WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. COLD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL GIVE TO SOME MODERATION MON ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND
AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM IS LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
RANGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS ARE STILL LINGERING OUT THERE THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS SURFACE
DEWS CONTINUE TO DROP AS THE FRONT PASSES. WINDS WILL STAY UP
ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL REGIONS FROM CAA OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS. OTHERWISE MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN FROM ONTARIO TONIGHT AND
PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS OVER NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WHICH WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. THUS
EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO WERE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S...THIS IS A REASONABLE TARGET FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...
SECOND SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A CLEARING
AND DRYING TREND BY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER
AIR AT ALL LEVELS AND SUPPORT DAYTIME MIXING OF THE AIRMASS TO 850
MB. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -5C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
BE AT LEAST 25 KNOTS. WE WILL USE THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EARLY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEWPOINTS IN THE COLDER AIRMASS
WILL BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT 30-35 ALONG THE COASTLINE AND ISLANDS.
THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES AT AND
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA...THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL COLD ENOUGH FOR A FROST.
WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST
WHERE THE SEASON HAS NOT ALREADY ENDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL/GUIDANCE EVALUATION...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN
EVOLVING LONG DURATION HIGH AMPLITUDE COASTAL STORM BEGINNING OFF
DELMARVA TUE/WED AND THEN TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THU/FRI. MODELS DIFFER ON FAR SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD CLOSED LOW INITIALLY DIGS...THEN HOW QUICKLY THE MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION CAPTURES THE SURFACE LOW /OCCLUSION/ WHICH WILL
DETERMINE TIMING/TRACK AND DURATION OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS
OVER THE REGION BEFORE DRY SLOT ARRIVES. AS EXPECTED THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DISPLAYS SOME SMALL VARIATIONS FROM RUN TO
RUN. THUS AT THIS TIME RANGE THE MOST SKILLFUL SOLUTION IS A MODEL
BLEND WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE 12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS ENSEMBLE
MEANS.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...

OTHER THAN A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S
REGIONWIDE...IT WILL BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. WHILE
TEMPS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGS HIGHER THAN SUNDAY IT WILL FEEL
CONSIDERABLY WARMER GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE /LESS STRATO-CU/ AND LESS
WIND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. EASILY THE PICK OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

PROLONG PERIOD OF RAIN AND WIND OF VARYING INTENSITY AS LARGE
AMPLITUDE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLC REGION AND
EVENTUALLY SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE
TIMING AND POSITION DIFFERENCES ON EXACT EVOLUTION WHICH CREATES
UNCERTAINTY ON STORM DETAILS...SUCH AS AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...
STRONGEST WIND AND MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING. THE NEW 12Z GEFS
INDICATES STRONGEST 925 MB AND 850 MB ONSHORE LOW LEVEL WIND
ANOMALIES /+3 STD/ OCCUR FROM 12Z WED TO 12Z THU ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THEN LIFTING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER THU INTO FRI. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY THU FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH DRY SLOT
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONCUR WITH THIS
EVOLUTION YIELDING EVENT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2" ACROSS CT/RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA...INCREASING TO 3-4" OVER NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST
NH. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MA AND NH. A SUPERBLEND OF ALL
MODEL SOURCES YIELDS THE SAME QPF RESULTS...AREAL COVERAGE AND IN
MAGNITUDE. THUS AT THIS TIME RANGE ENSEMBLES AND A MODEL BLEND OF
DETERMINISTIC GUID SUGGEST GREATEST THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS/STRONG
WINDS-DOWN TREE LIMBS-POWER OUTAGES AND COASTAL FLOODING WOULD BE
ACROSS NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE OBVIOUSLY
THIS CAN SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH OR NORTH. THUS NEED TO REMAIN
PROBABILISTIC AT THIS TIME RANGE.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...AS MENTIONED ABOVE LATEST GUIDANCE AND
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LONGEST DURATION OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR FROM NORTHERN MA NORTHWARD ACROSS NH AND MAINE COASTLINE. THUS
GREATEST RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION IS CAPE ANN/SALISBURY
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT/S POSSIBLE FOR THIS RISK
AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OR NORTHWARD. WHILE ASTRO TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT
LOW THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER LONG DURATION EVENT OCCURRING OVER MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES CAN
OFFSET THIS. FOR THIS REASON THE RISK OF EROSION APPEARS GREATER
THAN INUNDATION GIVEN LARGE SURF WILL BATTER THE COASTLINE FOR A
NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

7 PM UPDATE...

INITIAL FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AT 7 PM. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE 8-830 PM.
BEHIND THE FRONT A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT MAINLY DRY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THUS NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM
18Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF
MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW...TURNING ANY WET SPOTS ON THE GROUND
INTO PATCHES OF ICE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR/DRY RUNWAYS AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS POSSIBLE WED INTO EARLY THU ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE NEW
ENGLAND WATERS WITH A 14 SECOND PERIOD AND HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 8 FEET.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME WEST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT BOS HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY/MASSACHUSETTS BAY.

SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER. SOUTHEAST
SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END
ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

*** POWERFUL/DANGEROUS EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM TO MARINERS LIKELY
  WED/THU ***

MONDAY...WINDS SLACKEN AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
THUS SUBSIDING SEAS. GOOD VSBY IN DRY WEATHER.

TUE/WED/THU...COASTAL STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE DE COAST YIELDING
INCREASING EAST WINDS BEGINNING TUE WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS LIKELY
WED INTO THU AS LOW PRES APPROACHES BETWEEN NANTUCKET AND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. E-NE GALES LIKELY WITH GREATEST RISK NORTHERN
WATERS ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS OF 15+...AGAIN OCEAN WATERS
NORTHEAST OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL REDUCE
VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018.
NH...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 190159
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT USERS IN A CHILLY AIRMASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY ALONG WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. COLD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL GIVE TO SOME MODERATION MON ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND
AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM IS LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
RANGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS ARE STILL LINGERING OUT THERE THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS SURFACE
DEWS CONTINUE TO DROP AS THE FRONT PASSES. WINDS WILL STAY UP
ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL REGIONS FROM CAA OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS. OTHERWISE MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN FROM ONTARIO TONIGHT AND
PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS OVER NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WHICH WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. THUS
EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO WERE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S...THIS IS A REASONABLE TARGET FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...
SECOND SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A CLEARING
AND DRYING TREND BY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER
AIR AT ALL LEVELS AND SUPPORT DAYTIME MIXING OF THE AIRMASS TO 850
MB. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -5C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
BE AT LEAST 25 KNOTS. WE WILL USE THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EARLY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEWPOINTS IN THE COLDER AIRMASS
WILL BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT 30-35 ALONG THE COASTLINE AND ISLANDS.
THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES AT AND
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA...THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL COLD ENOUGH FOR A FROST.
WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST
WHERE THE SEASON HAS NOT ALREADY ENDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL/GUIDANCE EVALUATION...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN
EVOLVING LONG DURATION HIGH AMPLITUDE COASTAL STORM BEGINNING OFF
DELMARVA TUE/WED AND THEN TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THU/FRI. MODELS DIFFER ON FAR SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD CLOSED LOW INITIALLY DIGS...THEN HOW QUICKLY THE MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION CAPTURES THE SURFACE LOW /OCCLUSION/ WHICH WILL
DETERMINE TIMING/TRACK AND DURATION OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS
OVER THE REGION BEFORE DRY SLOT ARRIVES. AS EXPECTED THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DISPLAYS SOME SMALL VARIATIONS FROM RUN TO
RUN. THUS AT THIS TIME RANGE THE MOST SKILLFUL SOLUTION IS A MODEL
BLEND WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE 12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS ENSEMBLE
MEANS.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...

OTHER THAN A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S
REGIONWIDE...IT WILL BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. WHILE
TEMPS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGS HIGHER THAN SUNDAY IT WILL FEEL
CONSIDERABLY WARMER GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE /LESS STRATO-CU/ AND LESS
WIND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. EASILY THE PICK OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

PROLONG PERIOD OF RAIN AND WIND OF VARYING INTENSITY AS LARGE
AMPLITUDE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLC REGION AND
EVENTUALLY SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE
TIMING AND POSITION DIFFERENCES ON EXACT EVOLUTION WHICH CREATES
UNCERTAINTY ON STORM DETAILS...SUCH AS AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...
STRONGEST WIND AND MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING. THE NEW 12Z GEFS
INDICATES STRONGEST 925 MB AND 850 MB ONSHORE LOW LEVEL WIND
ANOMALIES /+3 STD/ OCCUR FROM 12Z WED TO 12Z THU ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THEN LIFTING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER THU INTO FRI. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY THU FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH DRY SLOT
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONCUR WITH THIS
EVOLUTION YIELDING EVENT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2" ACROSS CT/RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA...INCREASING TO 3-4" OVER NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST
NH. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MA AND NH. A SUPERBLEND OF ALL
MODEL SOURCES YIELDS THE SAME QPF RESULTS...AREAL COVERAGE AND IN
MAGNITUDE. THUS AT THIS TIME RANGE ENSEMBLES AND A MODEL BLEND OF
DETERMINISTIC GUID SUGGEST GREATEST THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS/STRONG
WINDS-DOWN TREE LIMBS-POWER OUTAGES AND COASTAL FLOODING WOULD BE
ACROSS NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE OBVIOUSLY
THIS CAN SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH OR NORTH. THUS NEED TO REMAIN
PROBABILISTIC AT THIS TIME RANGE.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...AS MENTIONED ABOVE LATEST GUIDANCE AND
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LONGEST DURATION OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR FROM NORTHERN MA NORTHWARD ACROSS NH AND MAINE COASTLINE. THUS
GREATEST RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION IS CAPE ANN/SALISBURY
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT/S POSSIBLE FOR THIS RISK
AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OR NORTHWARD. WHILE ASTRO TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT
LOW THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER LONG DURATION EVENT OCCURRING OVER MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES CAN
OFFSET THIS. FOR THIS REASON THE RISK OF EROSION APPEARS GREATER
THAN INUNDATION GIVEN LARGE SURF WILL BATTER THE COASTLINE FOR A
NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

7 PM UPDATE...

INITIAL FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AT 7 PM. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE 8-830 PM.
BEHIND THE FRONT A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT MAINLY DRY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THUS NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM
18Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF
MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW...TURNING ANY WET SPOTS ON THE GROUND
INTO PATCHES OF ICE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR/DRY RUNWAYS AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS POSSIBLE WED INTO EARLY THU ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE NEW
ENGLAND WATERS WITH A 14 SECOND PERIOD AND HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 8 FEET.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME WEST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT BOS HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY/MASSACHUSETTS BAY.

SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER. SOUTHEAST
SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END
ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

*** POWERFUL/DANGEROUS EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM TO MARINERS LIKELY
  WED/THU ***

MONDAY...WINDS SLACKEN AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
THUS SUBSIDING SEAS. GOOD VSBY IN DRY WEATHER.

TUE/WED/THU...COASTAL STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE DE COAST YIELDING
INCREASING EAST WINDS BEGINNING TUE WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS LIKELY
WED INTO THU AS LOW PRES APPROACHES BETWEEN NANTUCKET AND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. E-NE GALES LIKELY WITH GREATEST RISK NORTHERN
WATERS ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS OF 15+...AGAIN OCEAN WATERS
NORTHEAST OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL REDUCE
VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018.
NH...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 190159
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
959 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. A STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE: ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FCST. SHOWERS
HAVE COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FA EXCEPT IN THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
LGT SHWRS WERE NOTED.

645 PM UPDATE: DROPPED POPS TO NEAR NIL OVER SRN AREAS FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING AS THE FIRST TROF HAS MOVED THROUGH WITH ALL
THE SHWRS NOW MOVING INTO ERN MAINE. DOWNSLOPING WINDS ARE
KICKING IN SO DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THE REST OF THE
EVENING. SOME LINGERING SHWRS IN THE MTNS STILL PSBL SO CHC POPS
THERE. TOWARD MORNING A SECONDARY S/WV AND THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SCT SHWRS PSBL. TEMPS WILL BE
GETTING COLD ALOFT TOWARD MORNING SO SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD
SEE ANY RAIN SHWRS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS.

MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA.

PREV DISC:
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
SHIFTING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT KICKING OFF SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT EXPECT
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO GET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.

VORT MAX ROUNDING THE THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAKER LOBE OF ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BULK OF SUNDAY WILL WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF MORNING
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...DIMINISHING TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO
MID 50S SOUTH.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON AS TEMPS DIP TO NEAR FREEZING DOWN TO THE COAST. COLDEST
AIR WILL BE FOUND IN NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE READINGS WILL SETTLE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO
OUR SOUTH. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY...AS THE NEXT
IMPULSE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND CARVES OUT AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS LOW THEN MEANDERS
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BEFORE BEING KICKED OUT INTO
THE MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE SLOW-
MOVING COASTAL LOW. WHILE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RELATIVELY
LOW THIS PORTION OF THE MONTH...THE PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS WILL NOT PRECLUDE SPLASHOVER AND MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR. VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

TUE NIGHT - THU...MVFR IN RAIN...WITH AREAS OF IFR IN RAIN AND
FOG.

WED...NE SFC WND GUSTS TO 30 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

MON - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 190159
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
959 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. A STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE: ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FCST. SHOWERS
HAVE COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FA EXCEPT IN THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
LGT SHWRS WERE NOTED.

645 PM UPDATE: DROPPED POPS TO NEAR NIL OVER SRN AREAS FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING AS THE FIRST TROF HAS MOVED THROUGH WITH ALL
THE SHWRS NOW MOVING INTO ERN MAINE. DOWNSLOPING WINDS ARE
KICKING IN SO DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THE REST OF THE
EVENING. SOME LINGERING SHWRS IN THE MTNS STILL PSBL SO CHC POPS
THERE. TOWARD MORNING A SECONDARY S/WV AND THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SCT SHWRS PSBL. TEMPS WILL BE
GETTING COLD ALOFT TOWARD MORNING SO SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD
SEE ANY RAIN SHWRS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS.

MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA.

PREV DISC:
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
SHIFTING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT KICKING OFF SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT EXPECT
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO GET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.

VORT MAX ROUNDING THE THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAKER LOBE OF ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BULK OF SUNDAY WILL WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF MORNING
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...DIMINISHING TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO
MID 50S SOUTH.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON AS TEMPS DIP TO NEAR FREEZING DOWN TO THE COAST. COLDEST
AIR WILL BE FOUND IN NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE READINGS WILL SETTLE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO
OUR SOUTH. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY...AS THE NEXT
IMPULSE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND CARVES OUT AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS LOW THEN MEANDERS
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BEFORE BEING KICKED OUT INTO
THE MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE SLOW-
MOVING COASTAL LOW. WHILE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RELATIVELY
LOW THIS PORTION OF THE MONTH...THE PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS WILL NOT PRECLUDE SPLASHOVER AND MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR. VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

TUE NIGHT - THU...MVFR IN RAIN...WITH AREAS OF IFR IN RAIN AND
FOG.

WED...NE SFC WND GUSTS TO 30 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

MON - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$





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