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000
FXUS61 KBOX 270759
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
359 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH TODAY AND TOMORROW HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE WARM...MOIST AIRMASS EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A FEW SITES
STILL AT 70F AS OF 4AM! SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING ALLOWING FOR THE LOW LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP BRINGING IN
STRATUS AND FOG.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR VSBYS AND FOG POTENTIAL AS IT IS
NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. IN FACT...ONLY THE
VINEYARD SHOWS VSBYS BELOW 5 SM. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

TODAY...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. FEEL TODAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST SOUTHERLY
FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG WITH ABOUT
25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.5 INCHES...COMBINED
WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAIN. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING TO THE FORECAST FOR HEAVY
RAIN. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS AS WELL...ESP ACROSS
FRANKLIN COUNTY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND LINGER
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC HAS THE PIONEER VALLEY IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT OVERALL FEEL IS THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE QUESTION FOR THIS EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION WILL
GET. BELIEVE THAT THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE
NEAR THE CENTRAL HILL OF WORCESTER COUNTY. IN FACT BELIEVE PRECIP
WILL STRUGGLE AFTER 3/4Z.

AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE
EVENING HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES. DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS.
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG.

POPS DO SLOWLY INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

TOMORROW...

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS
THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WHICH COULD
BE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ANY CONVECTION. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT THE BETTER
DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION...IN MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. STILL CANT RULE OUT A FEW SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HEATING WITH DESCENT SHEAR
BETWEEN 25-30 KTS AND MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

PWAT VALUES ARE STILL HIGH...AROUND 1.6 INCHES WHICH MAY YIELD TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

BEFORE 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COULD SEE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE VFR AREA WIDE.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/MVFR WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS VFR. WESTERN
SITES COULD DROP TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-30 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLL IN.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION SWITCHING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
IFR...FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG SE
TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEW SET OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECT NEAR SHORE WATERS TO SEE GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS...JUST LIKE
YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INCREASING OUTER WATER SEAS TO 5FT.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...DUNTEN/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270759
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
359 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH TODAY AND TOMORROW HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE WARM...MOIST AIRMASS EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A FEW SITES
STILL AT 70F AS OF 4AM! SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING ALLOWING FOR THE LOW LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP BRINGING IN
STRATUS AND FOG.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR VSBYS AND FOG POTENTIAL AS IT IS
NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. IN FACT...ONLY THE
VINEYARD SHOWS VSBYS BELOW 5 SM. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

TODAY...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. FEEL TODAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST SOUTHERLY
FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG WITH ABOUT
25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.5 INCHES...COMBINED
WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAIN. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING TO THE FORECAST FOR HEAVY
RAIN. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS AS WELL...ESP ACROSS
FRANKLIN COUNTY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND LINGER
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC HAS THE PIONEER VALLEY IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT OVERALL FEEL IS THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE QUESTION FOR THIS EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION WILL
GET. BELIEVE THAT THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE
NEAR THE CENTRAL HILL OF WORCESTER COUNTY. IN FACT BELIEVE PRECIP
WILL STRUGGLE AFTER 3/4Z.

AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE
EVENING HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES. DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS.
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG.

POPS DO SLOWLY INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

TOMORROW...

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS
THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WHICH COULD
BE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ANY CONVECTION. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT THE BETTER
DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION...IN MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. STILL CANT RULE OUT A FEW SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HEATING WITH DESCENT SHEAR
BETWEEN 25-30 KTS AND MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

PWAT VALUES ARE STILL HIGH...AROUND 1.6 INCHES WHICH MAY YIELD TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

BEFORE 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COULD SEE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE VFR AREA WIDE.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/MVFR WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS VFR. WESTERN
SITES COULD DROP TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-30 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLL IN.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION SWITCHING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
IFR...FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG SE
TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEW SET OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECT NEAR SHORE WATERS TO SEE GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS...JUST LIKE
YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INCREASING OUTER WATER SEAS TO 5FT.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...DUNTEN/EVT


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KGYX 270651
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
251 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND MOVES OFF THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
RETURN. COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A HUMID SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AROUND
PERIPHERY OF OFFSHORE HIGH. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
80S...WITH A FEW 70S NEAR THE COAST AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM THE 00Z SOUNDINGS WERE
PLUS TWO TO THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS AND PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
THREE TO FOUR STANDARD DEVIATIONS TODAY. A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY...PROVIDING SOME
WEAK FORCING OVER OUR FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCE WITH CAPES AT OR
BELOW 1000 J/KG. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD BE
FROM CONNECTICUT VALLEY NORTHWARD TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
REGION OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE...WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS LATE TODAY. OTHERWISE...TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME WIDELY SCATTERED TONIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. IT`LL BE A HUMID NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND
HAZE. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. ON THURSDAY...WE`LL QUICKLY
DESTABILIZE WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH
SOME HEATING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DEVELOP WITH SUFFICIENT
FORCING AND SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

A MILDER RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD ON SATURDAY.
VERY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COASTAL SEA BREEZE
AND ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE WIND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS MAY
TRIGGER SOME GUSTY STORMS. THE EURO AND CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING CLOUDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER TO FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS DURING THE DAY. THE GFS REMAINS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...BRINGING DRY AND COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO NEW
ENGLAND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR TODAY IN SHRA AND TSTMS. SOME TSTMS
COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. VFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN
FOG AND HAZE...IFR PSBL VCNTY OF KRKD AND KAUG AFT 06Z IN MARINE
STRATUS AND FOG. AREAS OF MVFR EXPECTED THU IN SHRA AND TSTMS.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH AREAS OF IFR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED IN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT. CURRENT SCA MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASED SOUTHWEST GRADIENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THUS FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LOWER THAN IT HAS BEEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 270651
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
251 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND MOVES OFF THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
RETURN. COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A HUMID SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AROUND
PERIPHERY OF OFFSHORE HIGH. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
80S...WITH A FEW 70S NEAR THE COAST AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM THE 00Z SOUNDINGS WERE
PLUS TWO TO THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS AND PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
THREE TO FOUR STANDARD DEVIATIONS TODAY. A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY...PROVIDING SOME
WEAK FORCING OVER OUR FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCE WITH CAPES AT OR
BELOW 1000 J/KG. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD BE
FROM CONNECTICUT VALLEY NORTHWARD TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
REGION OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE...WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS LATE TODAY. OTHERWISE...TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME WIDELY SCATTERED TONIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. IT`LL BE A HUMID NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND
HAZE. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. ON THURSDAY...WE`LL QUICKLY
DESTABILIZE WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH
SOME HEATING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DEVELOP WITH SUFFICIENT
FORCING AND SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

A MILDER RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD ON SATURDAY.
VERY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COASTAL SEA BREEZE
AND ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE WIND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS MAY
TRIGGER SOME GUSTY STORMS. THE EURO AND CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING CLOUDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER TO FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS DURING THE DAY. THE GFS REMAINS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...BRINGING DRY AND COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO NEW
ENGLAND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR TODAY IN SHRA AND TSTMS. SOME TSTMS
COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. VFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN
FOG AND HAZE...IFR PSBL VCNTY OF KRKD AND KAUG AFT 06Z IN MARINE
STRATUS AND FOG. AREAS OF MVFR EXPECTED THU IN SHRA AND TSTMS.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH AREAS OF IFR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED IN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT. CURRENT SCA MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASED SOUTHWEST GRADIENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THUS FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LOWER THAN IT HAS BEEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270651
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
251 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND MOVES OFF THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
RETURN. COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A HUMID SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AROUND
PERIPHERY OF OFFSHORE HIGH. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
80S...WITH A FEW 70S NEAR THE COAST AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM THE 00Z SOUNDINGS WERE
PLUS TWO TO THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS AND PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
THREE TO FOUR STANDARD DEVIATIONS TODAY. A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY...PROVIDING SOME
WEAK FORCING OVER OUR FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCE WITH CAPES AT OR
BELOW 1000 J/KG. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD BE
FROM CONNECTICUT VALLEY NORTHWARD TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
REGION OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE...WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS LATE TODAY. OTHERWISE...TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME WIDELY SCATTERED TONIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. IT`LL BE A HUMID NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND
HAZE. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. ON THURSDAY...WE`LL QUICKLY
DESTABILIZE WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH
SOME HEATING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DEVELOP WITH SUFFICIENT
FORCING AND SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

A MILDER RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD ON SATURDAY.
VERY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COASTAL SEA BREEZE
AND ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE WIND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS MAY
TRIGGER SOME GUSTY STORMS. THE EURO AND CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING CLOUDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER TO FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS DURING THE DAY. THE GFS REMAINS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...BRINGING DRY AND COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO NEW
ENGLAND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR TODAY IN SHRA AND TSTMS. SOME TSTMS
COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. VFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN
FOG AND HAZE...IFR PSBL VCNTY OF KRKD AND KAUG AFT 06Z IN MARINE
STRATUS AND FOG. AREAS OF MVFR EXPECTED THU IN SHRA AND TSTMS.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH AREAS OF IFR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED IN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT. CURRENT SCA MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASED SOUTHWEST GRADIENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THUS FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LOWER THAN IT HAS BEEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 270651
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
251 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND MOVES OFF THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
RETURN. COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A HUMID SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AROUND
PERIPHERY OF OFFSHORE HIGH. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
80S...WITH A FEW 70S NEAR THE COAST AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM THE 00Z SOUNDINGS WERE
PLUS TWO TO THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS AND PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
THREE TO FOUR STANDARD DEVIATIONS TODAY. A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY...PROVIDING SOME
WEAK FORCING OVER OUR FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCE WITH CAPES AT OR
BELOW 1000 J/KG. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD BE
FROM CONNECTICUT VALLEY NORTHWARD TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
REGION OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE...WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS LATE TODAY. OTHERWISE...TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME WIDELY SCATTERED TONIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. IT`LL BE A HUMID NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND
HAZE. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. ON THURSDAY...WE`LL QUICKLY
DESTABILIZE WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH
SOME HEATING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DEVELOP WITH SUFFICIENT
FORCING AND SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

A MILDER RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD ON SATURDAY.
VERY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COASTAL SEA BREEZE
AND ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE WIND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS MAY
TRIGGER SOME GUSTY STORMS. THE EURO AND CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING CLOUDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER TO FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS DURING THE DAY. THE GFS REMAINS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...BRINGING DRY AND COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO NEW
ENGLAND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR TODAY IN SHRA AND TSTMS. SOME TSTMS
COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. VFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN
FOG AND HAZE...IFR PSBL VCNTY OF KRKD AND KAUG AFT 06Z IN MARINE
STRATUS AND FOG. AREAS OF MVFR EXPECTED THU IN SHRA AND TSTMS.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH AREAS OF IFR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED IN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT. CURRENT SCA MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASED SOUTHWEST GRADIENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THUS FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LOWER THAN IT HAS BEEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270545
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

200 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION STREAMING IN HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...MOISTENING UP THE PROFILE. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD
TO FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT STRATUS WILL DOMINATE
TONIGHT...WITH FOG DEVELOPING TOMORROW. CAN SEE STRATUS ALREADY
DEVELOPING PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.

OTHERWISE TEMPS REMAIN QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
UPPER 60S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO
REMAIN A TAD GUSTY ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

BEFORE 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COULD SEE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE VFR.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/MVFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS VFR. WESTERN SITES COULD DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO
GUST UP TO 20-30 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS RI/SE MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLL IN.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION SWITCHING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
IFR...FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG SE
TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270545
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

200 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION STREAMING IN HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...MOISTENING UP THE PROFILE. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD
TO FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT STRATUS WILL DOMINATE
TONIGHT...WITH FOG DEVELOPING TOMORROW. CAN SEE STRATUS ALREADY
DEVELOPING PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.

OTHERWISE TEMPS REMAIN QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
UPPER 60S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO
REMAIN A TAD GUSTY ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

BEFORE 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COULD SEE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE VFR.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/MVFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS VFR. WESTERN SITES COULD DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO
GUST UP TO 20-30 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS RI/SE MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLL IN.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION SWITCHING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
IFR...FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG SE
TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270545
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

200 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION STREAMING IN HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...MOISTENING UP THE PROFILE. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD
TO FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT STRATUS WILL DOMINATE
TONIGHT...WITH FOG DEVELOPING TOMORROW. CAN SEE STRATUS ALREADY
DEVELOPING PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.

OTHERWISE TEMPS REMAIN QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
UPPER 60S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO
REMAIN A TAD GUSTY ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

BEFORE 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COULD SEE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE VFR.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/MVFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS VFR. WESTERN SITES COULD DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO
GUST UP TO 20-30 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS RI/SE MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLL IN.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION SWITCHING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
IFR...FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG SE
TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270545
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

200 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION STREAMING IN HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...MOISTENING UP THE PROFILE. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD
TO FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT STRATUS WILL DOMINATE
TONIGHT...WITH FOG DEVELOPING TOMORROW. CAN SEE STRATUS ALREADY
DEVELOPING PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.

OTHERWISE TEMPS REMAIN QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
UPPER 60S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO
REMAIN A TAD GUSTY ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

BEFORE 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COULD SEE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE VFR.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/MVFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS VFR. WESTERN SITES COULD DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO
GUST UP TO 20-30 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS RI/SE MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLL IN.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION SWITCHING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
IFR...FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG SE
TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270545
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

200 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION STREAMING IN HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...MOISTENING UP THE PROFILE. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD
TO FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT STRATUS WILL DOMINATE
TONIGHT...WITH FOG DEVELOPING TOMORROW. CAN SEE STRATUS ALREADY
DEVELOPING PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.

OTHERWISE TEMPS REMAIN QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
UPPER 60S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO
REMAIN A TAD GUSTY ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

BEFORE 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COULD SEE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE VFR.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/MVFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS VFR. WESTERN SITES COULD DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO
GUST UP TO 20-30 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS RI/SE MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLL IN.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION SWITCHING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
IFR...FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG SE
TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270545
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

200 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION STREAMING IN HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...MOISTENING UP THE PROFILE. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD
TO FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT STRATUS WILL DOMINATE
TONIGHT...WITH FOG DEVELOPING TOMORROW. CAN SEE STRATUS ALREADY
DEVELOPING PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.

OTHERWISE TEMPS REMAIN QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
UPPER 60S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO
REMAIN A TAD GUSTY ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

BEFORE 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COULD SEE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE VFR.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/MVFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS VFR. WESTERN SITES COULD DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO
GUST UP TO 20-30 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS RI/SE MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLL IN.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION SWITCHING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
IFR...FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG SE
TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270545
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

200 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION STREAMING IN HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...MOISTENING UP THE PROFILE. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD
TO FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT STRATUS WILL DOMINATE
TONIGHT...WITH FOG DEVELOPING TOMORROW. CAN SEE STRATUS ALREADY
DEVELOPING PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.

OTHERWISE TEMPS REMAIN QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
UPPER 60S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO
REMAIN A TAD GUSTY ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

BEFORE 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COULD SEE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE VFR.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/MVFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS VFR. WESTERN SITES COULD DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO
GUST UP TO 20-30 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS RI/SE MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLL IN.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION SWITCHING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
IFR...FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG SE
TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270545
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

200 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION STREAMING IN HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...MOISTENING UP THE PROFILE. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD
TO FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT STRATUS WILL DOMINATE
TONIGHT...WITH FOG DEVELOPING TOMORROW. CAN SEE STRATUS ALREADY
DEVELOPING PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.

OTHERWISE TEMPS REMAIN QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
UPPER 60S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO
REMAIN A TAD GUSTY ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

BEFORE 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COULD SEE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE VFR.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/MVFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS VFR. WESTERN SITES COULD DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO
GUST UP TO 20-30 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS RI/SE MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLL IN.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION SWITCHING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
IFR...FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG SE
TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KGYX 270440
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1240 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MORE HUMID SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND MOVES OFF THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1235 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT MESONET IN 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
.UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT MESOSCALE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MUGGY AS THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM THE
OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE ARRIVING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BECOME VERY HIGH. INCREASING SHEAR IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE AS A SHORT WAVE ROTATING NORTHEAST
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND
THEN MOVE EAST INTO OUR REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. AT SOME POINT IF SOME TRAINING OF SOME OF THE CELLS OCCURS
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS
FOR TEMPS AND POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
CRITICAL TO THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN CLIMATOLOGY
PREFERS FOR A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...A WARM
AND HUMID START TO THE DAY SHOULD GIVE THE AREA A HEAD START ON
MODERATE INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY LATE MORNING. WITH
INSTABILITY...FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND WIND SHEAR INCREASING JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT...A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. A FEW COULD BE SEVERE.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
A RETURN OF VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
COULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD MUCH NEEDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES LATER
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. SOME COASTAL AND EVEN
INLAND STRATUS AS WELL AS FOG NEAR KRKD AND EAST OF KPWM EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT LOCALLY
LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR.


LONG TERM...LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3-6
FT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED. FOR
TONIGHT INTO WED WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA BUT WILL
INCREASE WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...AND THEN
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REST
OF THE WEEK...AND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOWER THAN IT
HAS BEEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270440
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1240 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MORE HUMID SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND MOVES OFF THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1235 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT MESONET IN 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
.UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT MESOSCALE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MUGGY AS THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM THE
OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE ARRIVING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BECOME VERY HIGH. INCREASING SHEAR IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE AS A SHORT WAVE ROTATING NORTHEAST
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND
THEN MOVE EAST INTO OUR REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. AT SOME POINT IF SOME TRAINING OF SOME OF THE CELLS OCCURS
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS
FOR TEMPS AND POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
CRITICAL TO THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN CLIMATOLOGY
PREFERS FOR A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...A WARM
AND HUMID START TO THE DAY SHOULD GIVE THE AREA A HEAD START ON
MODERATE INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY LATE MORNING. WITH
INSTABILITY...FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND WIND SHEAR INCREASING JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT...A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. A FEW COULD BE SEVERE.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
A RETURN OF VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
COULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD MUCH NEEDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES LATER
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. SOME COASTAL AND EVEN
INLAND STRATUS AS WELL AS FOG NEAR KRKD AND EAST OF KPWM EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT LOCALLY
LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR.


LONG TERM...LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3-6
FT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED. FOR
TONIGHT INTO WED WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA BUT WILL
INCREASE WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...AND THEN
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REST
OF THE WEEK...AND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOWER THAN IT
HAS BEEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270440
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1240 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MORE HUMID SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND MOVES OFF THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1235 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT MESONET IN 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
.UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT MESOSCALE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MUGGY AS THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM THE
OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE ARRIVING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BECOME VERY HIGH. INCREASING SHEAR IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE AS A SHORT WAVE ROTATING NORTHEAST
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND
THEN MOVE EAST INTO OUR REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. AT SOME POINT IF SOME TRAINING OF SOME OF THE CELLS OCCURS
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS
FOR TEMPS AND POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
CRITICAL TO THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN CLIMATOLOGY
PREFERS FOR A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...A WARM
AND HUMID START TO THE DAY SHOULD GIVE THE AREA A HEAD START ON
MODERATE INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY LATE MORNING. WITH
INSTABILITY...FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND WIND SHEAR INCREASING JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT...A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. A FEW COULD BE SEVERE.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
A RETURN OF VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
COULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD MUCH NEEDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES LATER
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. SOME COASTAL AND EVEN
INLAND STRATUS AS WELL AS FOG NEAR KRKD AND EAST OF KPWM EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT LOCALLY
LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR.


LONG TERM...LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3-6
FT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED. FOR
TONIGHT INTO WED WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA BUT WILL
INCREASE WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...AND THEN
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REST
OF THE WEEK...AND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOWER THAN IT
HAS BEEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270440
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1240 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MORE HUMID SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND MOVES OFF THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1235 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT MESONET IN 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
.UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT MESOSCALE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MUGGY AS THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM THE
OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE ARRIVING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BECOME VERY HIGH. INCREASING SHEAR IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE AS A SHORT WAVE ROTATING NORTHEAST
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND
THEN MOVE EAST INTO OUR REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. AT SOME POINT IF SOME TRAINING OF SOME OF THE CELLS OCCURS
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS
FOR TEMPS AND POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
CRITICAL TO THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN CLIMATOLOGY
PREFERS FOR A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...A WARM
AND HUMID START TO THE DAY SHOULD GIVE THE AREA A HEAD START ON
MODERATE INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY LATE MORNING. WITH
INSTABILITY...FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND WIND SHEAR INCREASING JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT...A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. A FEW COULD BE SEVERE.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
A RETURN OF VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
COULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD MUCH NEEDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES LATER
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. SOME COASTAL AND EVEN
INLAND STRATUS AS WELL AS FOG NEAR KRKD AND EAST OF KPWM EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT LOCALLY
LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR.


LONG TERM...LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3-6
FT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED. FOR
TONIGHT INTO WED WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA BUT WILL
INCREASE WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...AND THEN
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REST
OF THE WEEK...AND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOWER THAN IT
HAS BEEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270319 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1119 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MORE HUMID SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND MOVES OFF THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT MESOSCALE TRENDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SREF MODEL INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE MIDCOAST FROM PENOBSCOT BAY TO JUST EAST OF PORTLAND AND
OFFSHORE. HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE UPDATED FORECAST THIS EVENING
AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER AS WELL. POPS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AND
ALSO ADDED A LITTLE THUNDER FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS MUCAPE
INCREASES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MUGGY AS THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM THE
OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE ARRIVING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BECOME VERY HIGH. INCREASING SHEAR IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE AS A SHORT WAVE ROTATING NORTHEAST
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND
THEN MOVE EAST INTO OUR REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. AT SOME POINT IF SOME TRAINING OF SOME OF THE CELLS OCCURS
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS
FOR TEMPS AND POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
CRITICAL TO THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN CLIMATOLOGY
PREFERS FOR A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...A WARM
AND HUMID START TO THE DAY SHOULD GIVE THE AREA A HEAD START ON
MODERATE INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY LATE MORNING. WITH
INSTABILITY...FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND WIND SHEAR INCREASING JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT...A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. A FEW COULD BE SEVERE.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
A RETURN OF VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
COULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD MUCH NEEDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES LATER
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. SOME COASTAL AND EVEN
INLAND STRATUS AS WELL AS FOG NEAR KRKD AND EAST OF KPWM EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT LOCALLY
LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR.


LONG TERM...LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3-6
FT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED. FOR
TONIGHT INTO WED WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA BUT WILL
INCREASE WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...AND THEN
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REST
OF THE WEEK...AND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOWER THAN IT
HAS BEEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 270319 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1119 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MORE HUMID SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND MOVES OFF THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT MESOSCALE TRENDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SREF MODEL INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE MIDCOAST FROM PENOBSCOT BAY TO JUST EAST OF PORTLAND AND
OFFSHORE. HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE UPDATED FORECAST THIS EVENING
AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER AS WELL. POPS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AND
ALSO ADDED A LITTLE THUNDER FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS MUCAPE
INCREASES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MUGGY AS THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM THE
OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE ARRIVING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BECOME VERY HIGH. INCREASING SHEAR IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE AS A SHORT WAVE ROTATING NORTHEAST
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND
THEN MOVE EAST INTO OUR REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. AT SOME POINT IF SOME TRAINING OF SOME OF THE CELLS OCCURS
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS
FOR TEMPS AND POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
CRITICAL TO THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN CLIMATOLOGY
PREFERS FOR A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...A WARM
AND HUMID START TO THE DAY SHOULD GIVE THE AREA A HEAD START ON
MODERATE INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY LATE MORNING. WITH
INSTABILITY...FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND WIND SHEAR INCREASING JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT...A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. A FEW COULD BE SEVERE.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
A RETURN OF VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
COULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD MUCH NEEDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES LATER
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. SOME COASTAL AND EVEN
INLAND STRATUS AS WELL AS FOG NEAR KRKD AND EAST OF KPWM EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT LOCALLY
LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR.


LONG TERM...LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3-6
FT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED. FOR
TONIGHT INTO WED WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA BUT WILL
INCREASE WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...AND THEN
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REST
OF THE WEEK...AND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOWER THAN IT
HAS BEEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 270319 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1119 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MORE HUMID SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND MOVES OFF THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT MESOSCALE TRENDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SREF MODEL INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE MIDCOAST FROM PENOBSCOT BAY TO JUST EAST OF PORTLAND AND
OFFSHORE. HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE UPDATED FORECAST THIS EVENING
AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER AS WELL. POPS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AND
ALSO ADDED A LITTLE THUNDER FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS MUCAPE
INCREASES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MUGGY AS THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM THE
OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE ARRIVING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BECOME VERY HIGH. INCREASING SHEAR IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE AS A SHORT WAVE ROTATING NORTHEAST
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND
THEN MOVE EAST INTO OUR REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. AT SOME POINT IF SOME TRAINING OF SOME OF THE CELLS OCCURS
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS
FOR TEMPS AND POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
CRITICAL TO THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN CLIMATOLOGY
PREFERS FOR A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...A WARM
AND HUMID START TO THE DAY SHOULD GIVE THE AREA A HEAD START ON
MODERATE INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY LATE MORNING. WITH
INSTABILITY...FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND WIND SHEAR INCREASING JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT...A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. A FEW COULD BE SEVERE.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
A RETURN OF VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
COULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD MUCH NEEDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES LATER
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. SOME COASTAL AND EVEN
INLAND STRATUS AS WELL AS FOG NEAR KRKD AND EAST OF KPWM EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT LOCALLY
LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR.


LONG TERM...LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3-6
FT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED. FOR
TONIGHT INTO WED WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA BUT WILL
INCREASE WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...AND THEN
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REST
OF THE WEEK...AND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOWER THAN IT
HAS BEEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 270319 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1119 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MORE HUMID SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND MOVES OFF THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT MESOSCALE TRENDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SREF MODEL INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE MIDCOAST FROM PENOBSCOT BAY TO JUST EAST OF PORTLAND AND
OFFSHORE. HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE UPDATED FORECAST THIS EVENING
AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER AS WELL. POPS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AND
ALSO ADDED A LITTLE THUNDER FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS MUCAPE
INCREASES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MUGGY AS THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM THE
OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE ARRIVING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BECOME VERY HIGH. INCREASING SHEAR IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE AS A SHORT WAVE ROTATING NORTHEAST
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND
THEN MOVE EAST INTO OUR REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. AT SOME POINT IF SOME TRAINING OF SOME OF THE CELLS OCCURS
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS
FOR TEMPS AND POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
CRITICAL TO THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN CLIMATOLOGY
PREFERS FOR A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...A WARM
AND HUMID START TO THE DAY SHOULD GIVE THE AREA A HEAD START ON
MODERATE INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY LATE MORNING. WITH
INSTABILITY...FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND WIND SHEAR INCREASING JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT...A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. A FEW COULD BE SEVERE.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
A RETURN OF VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
COULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD MUCH NEEDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES LATER
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. SOME COASTAL AND EVEN
INLAND STRATUS AS WELL AS FOG NEAR KRKD AND EAST OF KPWM EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT LOCALLY
LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR.


LONG TERM...LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3-6
FT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED. FOR
TONIGHT INTO WED WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA BUT WILL
INCREASE WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...AND THEN
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REST
OF THE WEEK...AND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOWER THAN IT
HAS BEEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 270319 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1119 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MORE HUMID SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND MOVES OFF THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT MESOSCALE TRENDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SREF MODEL INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE MIDCOAST FROM PENOBSCOT BAY TO JUST EAST OF PORTLAND AND
OFFSHORE. HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE UPDATED FORECAST THIS EVENING
AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER AS WELL. POPS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AND
ALSO ADDED A LITTLE THUNDER FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS MUCAPE
INCREASES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MUGGY AS THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM THE
OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE ARRIVING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BECOME VERY HIGH. INCREASING SHEAR IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE AS A SHORT WAVE ROTATING NORTHEAST
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND
THEN MOVE EAST INTO OUR REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. AT SOME POINT IF SOME TRAINING OF SOME OF THE CELLS OCCURS
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS
FOR TEMPS AND POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
CRITICAL TO THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN CLIMATOLOGY
PREFERS FOR A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...A WARM
AND HUMID START TO THE DAY SHOULD GIVE THE AREA A HEAD START ON
MODERATE INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY LATE MORNING. WITH
INSTABILITY...FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND WIND SHEAR INCREASING JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT...A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. A FEW COULD BE SEVERE.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
A RETURN OF VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
COULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD MUCH NEEDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES LATER
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. SOME COASTAL AND EVEN
INLAND STRATUS AS WELL AS FOG NEAR KRKD AND EAST OF KPWM EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT LOCALLY
LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR.


LONG TERM...LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3-6
FT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED. FOR
TONIGHT INTO WED WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA BUT WILL
INCREASE WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...AND THEN
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REST
OF THE WEEK...AND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOWER THAN IT
HAS BEEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270205
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

1000 PM UPDATE...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN THE WARM MOIST SECTOR AS WARM FRONT
IS WELL NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST. WE HAVE ALREADY
STARTED TO TAP INTO THE GULF MOISTURE SO PWATS ARE ON THE INCREASE
AS WELL. LOW CONFIDENCE IF ANY SHOWER WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS
WE DO HAVE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT LACK THE TRIGGER
MECHANISM.

TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO DROP THIS EVENING WITH MANY SITES STILL
IN THE 70S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS. BIGGEST
QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. VSBYS ARE SLOWLY DROPPING
ACROSS ACK AND MVY...BUT FEEL THAT STRATUS MAY BE THE BIGGEST
ISSUE OVERNIGHT. WILL WAIT AND SEE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO
DETERMINE FOG POTENTIAL...BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS DRY BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING NOT JUST SPRINKLES BUT A GOOD TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP.  FEEL THIS MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM
THE CONVECTION OVER NEW YORK AND PA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND THAT WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S.  THAT WARM...MOIST AIR
FLOWING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG OVER THE OCEAN AND BLEEDING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS ACROSS NW MA
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z...BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR TO START...THEN DETERIORATING TO MVFR-IFR
IN AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD
SEE PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270205
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

1000 PM UPDATE...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN THE WARM MOIST SECTOR AS WARM FRONT
IS WELL NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST. WE HAVE ALREADY
STARTED TO TAP INTO THE GULF MOISTURE SO PWATS ARE ON THE INCREASE
AS WELL. LOW CONFIDENCE IF ANY SHOWER WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS
WE DO HAVE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT LACK THE TRIGGER
MECHANISM.

TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO DROP THIS EVENING WITH MANY SITES STILL
IN THE 70S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS. BIGGEST
QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. VSBYS ARE SLOWLY DROPPING
ACROSS ACK AND MVY...BUT FEEL THAT STRATUS MAY BE THE BIGGEST
ISSUE OVERNIGHT. WILL WAIT AND SEE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO
DETERMINE FOG POTENTIAL...BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS DRY BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING NOT JUST SPRINKLES BUT A GOOD TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP.  FEEL THIS MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM
THE CONVECTION OVER NEW YORK AND PA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND THAT WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S.  THAT WARM...MOIST AIR
FLOWING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG OVER THE OCEAN AND BLEEDING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS ACROSS NW MA
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z...BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR TO START...THEN DETERIORATING TO MVFR-IFR
IN AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD
SEE PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270205
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

1000 PM UPDATE...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN THE WARM MOIST SECTOR AS WARM FRONT
IS WELL NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST. WE HAVE ALREADY
STARTED TO TAP INTO THE GULF MOISTURE SO PWATS ARE ON THE INCREASE
AS WELL. LOW CONFIDENCE IF ANY SHOWER WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS
WE DO HAVE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT LACK THE TRIGGER
MECHANISM.

TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO DROP THIS EVENING WITH MANY SITES STILL
IN THE 70S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS. BIGGEST
QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. VSBYS ARE SLOWLY DROPPING
ACROSS ACK AND MVY...BUT FEEL THAT STRATUS MAY BE THE BIGGEST
ISSUE OVERNIGHT. WILL WAIT AND SEE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO
DETERMINE FOG POTENTIAL...BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS DRY BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING NOT JUST SPRINKLES BUT A GOOD TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP.  FEEL THIS MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM
THE CONVECTION OVER NEW YORK AND PA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND THAT WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S.  THAT WARM...MOIST AIR
FLOWING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG OVER THE OCEAN AND BLEEDING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS ACROSS NW MA
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z...BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR TO START...THEN DETERIORATING TO MVFR-IFR
IN AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD
SEE PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270205
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

1000 PM UPDATE...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN THE WARM MOIST SECTOR AS WARM FRONT
IS WELL NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST. WE HAVE ALREADY
STARTED TO TAP INTO THE GULF MOISTURE SO PWATS ARE ON THE INCREASE
AS WELL. LOW CONFIDENCE IF ANY SHOWER WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS
WE DO HAVE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT LACK THE TRIGGER
MECHANISM.

TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO DROP THIS EVENING WITH MANY SITES STILL
IN THE 70S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS. BIGGEST
QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. VSBYS ARE SLOWLY DROPPING
ACROSS ACK AND MVY...BUT FEEL THAT STRATUS MAY BE THE BIGGEST
ISSUE OVERNIGHT. WILL WAIT AND SEE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO
DETERMINE FOG POTENTIAL...BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS DRY BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING NOT JUST SPRINKLES BUT A GOOD TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP.  FEEL THIS MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM
THE CONVECTION OVER NEW YORK AND PA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND THAT WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S.  THAT WARM...MOIST AIR
FLOWING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG OVER THE OCEAN AND BLEEDING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS ACROSS NW MA
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z...BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR TO START...THEN DETERIORATING TO MVFR-IFR
IN AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD
SEE PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262351
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
751 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

740 PM UPDATE...
AS TEMPS REACHED THE MID-UPPER 80S ACROSS W MA/N CENTRAL CT THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME CONVECTION HELD ON AS IT MOVED E OUT OF THE
CENTRAL HUDSON VALLEY INTO W CENTRAL MA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
ONE CELL ACROSS CENTRAL BERKSHIRE COUNTY PRODUCED SOME C/G
LIGHTNING AND HAD A PRETTY GOOD CORE THAT MAY HAVE DROPPED A
LITTLE BIT OF SMALL HAIL. STILL NOTING SOME BRIEF C/G LIGHTNING IN
EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY WITH A CELL THERE AT AROUND 2330Z. THESE
CELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH SUNSET AND DISSIPATE BY
02Z-03Z.

BEYOND THIS...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE S COAST
AND PUSH INLAND ON THE S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT.




TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS DRY BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING NOT JUST SPRINKLES BUT A GOOD TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP.  FEEL THIS MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM
THE CONVECTION OVER NEW YORK AND PA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND THAT WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S.  THAT WARM...MOIST AIR
FLOWING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG OVER THE OCEAN AND BLEEDING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS ACROSS NW MA
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z...BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR TO START...THEN DETERIORATING TO MVFR-IFR
IN AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD
SEE PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 262351
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
751 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

740 PM UPDATE...
AS TEMPS REACHED THE MID-UPPER 80S ACROSS W MA/N CENTRAL CT THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME CONVECTION HELD ON AS IT MOVED E OUT OF THE
CENTRAL HUDSON VALLEY INTO W CENTRAL MA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
ONE CELL ACROSS CENTRAL BERKSHIRE COUNTY PRODUCED SOME C/G
LIGHTNING AND HAD A PRETTY GOOD CORE THAT MAY HAVE DROPPED A
LITTLE BIT OF SMALL HAIL. STILL NOTING SOME BRIEF C/G LIGHTNING IN
EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY WITH A CELL THERE AT AROUND 2330Z. THESE
CELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH SUNSET AND DISSIPATE BY
02Z-03Z.

BEYOND THIS...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE S COAST
AND PUSH INLAND ON THE S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT.




TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS DRY BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING NOT JUST SPRINKLES BUT A GOOD TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP.  FEEL THIS MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM
THE CONVECTION OVER NEW YORK AND PA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND THAT WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S.  THAT WARM...MOIST AIR
FLOWING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG OVER THE OCEAN AND BLEEDING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS ACROSS NW MA
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z...BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR TO START...THEN DETERIORATING TO MVFR-IFR
IN AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD
SEE PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262351
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
751 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

740 PM UPDATE...
AS TEMPS REACHED THE MID-UPPER 80S ACROSS W MA/N CENTRAL CT THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME CONVECTION HELD ON AS IT MOVED E OUT OF THE
CENTRAL HUDSON VALLEY INTO W CENTRAL MA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
ONE CELL ACROSS CENTRAL BERKSHIRE COUNTY PRODUCED SOME C/G
LIGHTNING AND HAD A PRETTY GOOD CORE THAT MAY HAVE DROPPED A
LITTLE BIT OF SMALL HAIL. STILL NOTING SOME BRIEF C/G LIGHTNING IN
EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY WITH A CELL THERE AT AROUND 2330Z. THESE
CELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH SUNSET AND DISSIPATE BY
02Z-03Z.

BEYOND THIS...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE S COAST
AND PUSH INLAND ON THE S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT.




TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS DRY BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING NOT JUST SPRINKLES BUT A GOOD TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP.  FEEL THIS MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM
THE CONVECTION OVER NEW YORK AND PA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND THAT WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S.  THAT WARM...MOIST AIR
FLOWING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG OVER THE OCEAN AND BLEEDING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS ACROSS NW MA
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z...BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR TO START...THEN DETERIORATING TO MVFR-IFR
IN AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD
SEE PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 262351
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
751 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

740 PM UPDATE...
AS TEMPS REACHED THE MID-UPPER 80S ACROSS W MA/N CENTRAL CT THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME CONVECTION HELD ON AS IT MOVED E OUT OF THE
CENTRAL HUDSON VALLEY INTO W CENTRAL MA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
ONE CELL ACROSS CENTRAL BERKSHIRE COUNTY PRODUCED SOME C/G
LIGHTNING AND HAD A PRETTY GOOD CORE THAT MAY HAVE DROPPED A
LITTLE BIT OF SMALL HAIL. STILL NOTING SOME BRIEF C/G LIGHTNING IN
EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY WITH A CELL THERE AT AROUND 2330Z. THESE
CELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH SUNSET AND DISSIPATE BY
02Z-03Z.

BEYOND THIS...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE S COAST
AND PUSH INLAND ON THE S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT.




TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS DRY BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING NOT JUST SPRINKLES BUT A GOOD TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP.  FEEL THIS MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM
THE CONVECTION OVER NEW YORK AND PA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND THAT WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S.  THAT WARM...MOIST AIR
FLOWING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG OVER THE OCEAN AND BLEEDING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS ACROSS NW MA
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z...BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR TO START...THEN DETERIORATING TO MVFR-IFR
IN AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD
SEE PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 262210 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
610 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MORE HUMID SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND MOVES OFF THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
SREF MODEL INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE MIDCOAST FROM PENOBSCOT BAY TO JUST EAST OF PORTLAND AND
OFFSHORE. HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE UPDATED FORECAST THIS EVENING
AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER AS WELL. POPS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AND
ALSO ADDED A LITTLE THUNDER FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS MUCAPE
INCREASES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NH THIS EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. THEN LATER TONIGHT A FEW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF NH AND THE MOUNTAINS OF ME AS VERY
MINOR IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. OTHERWISE...A WARM
MUGGY SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 60S. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MUGGY AS THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM THE
OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE ARRIVING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BECOME VERY HIGH. INCREASING SHEAR IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE AS A SHORT WAVE ROTATING NORTHEAST
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND
THEN MOVE EAST INTO OUR REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. AT SOME POINT IF SOME TRAINING OF SOME OF THE CELLS OCCURS
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS
FOR TEMPS AND POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
CRITICAL TO THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN CLIMATOLOGY
PREFERS FOR A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...A WARM
AND HUMID START TO THE DAY SHOULD GIVE THE AREA A HEAD START ON
MODERATE INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY LATE MORNING. WITH
INSTABILITY...FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND WIND SHEAR INCREASING JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT...A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. A FEW COULD BE SEVERE.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
A RETURN OF VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
COULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD MUCH NEEDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES LATER
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. SOME COASTAL AND EVEN
INLAND STRATUS AS WELL AS FOG NEAR KRKD AND EAST OF KPWM EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT LOCALLY
LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR.


LONG TERM...LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3-6
FT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED. FOR
TONIGHT INTO WED WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA BUT WILL
INCREASE WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...AND THEN
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REST
OF THE WEEK...AND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOWER THAN IT
HAS BEEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 262210 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
610 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MORE HUMID SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND MOVES OFF THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
SREF MODEL INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE MIDCOAST FROM PENOBSCOT BAY TO JUST EAST OF PORTLAND AND
OFFSHORE. HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE UPDATED FORECAST THIS EVENING
AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER AS WELL. POPS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AND
ALSO ADDED A LITTLE THUNDER FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS MUCAPE
INCREASES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NH THIS EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. THEN LATER TONIGHT A FEW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF NH AND THE MOUNTAINS OF ME AS VERY
MINOR IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. OTHERWISE...A WARM
MUGGY SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 60S. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MUGGY AS THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM THE
OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE ARRIVING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BECOME VERY HIGH. INCREASING SHEAR IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE AS A SHORT WAVE ROTATING NORTHEAST
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND
THEN MOVE EAST INTO OUR REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. AT SOME POINT IF SOME TRAINING OF SOME OF THE CELLS OCCURS
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS
FOR TEMPS AND POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
CRITICAL TO THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN CLIMATOLOGY
PREFERS FOR A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...A WARM
AND HUMID START TO THE DAY SHOULD GIVE THE AREA A HEAD START ON
MODERATE INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY LATE MORNING. WITH
INSTABILITY...FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND WIND SHEAR INCREASING JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT...A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. A FEW COULD BE SEVERE.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
A RETURN OF VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
COULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD MUCH NEEDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES LATER
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. SOME COASTAL AND EVEN
INLAND STRATUS AS WELL AS FOG NEAR KRKD AND EAST OF KPWM EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT LOCALLY
LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR.


LONG TERM...LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3-6
FT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED. FOR
TONIGHT INTO WED WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA BUT WILL
INCREASE WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...AND THEN
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REST
OF THE WEEK...AND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOWER THAN IT
HAS BEEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262130
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
530 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT...MERRIMACK AND PIONEER VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
CLOUD COVER HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED TO THIN CIRRUS WHICH HAS ALLOWED
THE TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB JUST IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

IN ADDITION...DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE IN THESE AREAS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED
MAINLY OVER NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA.  AS THESE TRAVEL
EASTWARD INTO MASSACHUSETTS THEY HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY
AND AREAL COVERAGE.

WHILE I EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE...A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO COULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  IF THEY DO...EXPECT
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS
AT MOST.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS DRY BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING NOT JUST SPRINKLES BUT A GOOD TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP.  FEEL THIS MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM
THE CONVECTION OVER NEW YORK AND PA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND THAT WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S.  THAT WARM...MOIST AIR
FLOWING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG OVER THE OCEAN AND BLEEDING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS
AND FOG WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN
AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 262130
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
530 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT...MERRIMACK AND PIONEER VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
CLOUD COVER HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED TO THIN CIRRUS WHICH HAS ALLOWED
THE TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB JUST IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

IN ADDITION...DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE IN THESE AREAS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED
MAINLY OVER NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA.  AS THESE TRAVEL
EASTWARD INTO MASSACHUSETTS THEY HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY
AND AREAL COVERAGE.

WHILE I EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE...A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO COULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  IF THEY DO...EXPECT
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS
AT MOST.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS DRY BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING NOT JUST SPRINKLES BUT A GOOD TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP.  FEEL THIS MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM
THE CONVECTION OVER NEW YORK AND PA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND THAT WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S.  THAT WARM...MOIST AIR
FLOWING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG OVER THE OCEAN AND BLEEDING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS
AND FOG WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN
AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262130
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
530 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT...MERRIMACK AND PIONEER VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
CLOUD COVER HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED TO THIN CIRRUS WHICH HAS ALLOWED
THE TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB JUST IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

IN ADDITION...DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE IN THESE AREAS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED
MAINLY OVER NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA.  AS THESE TRAVEL
EASTWARD INTO MASSACHUSETTS THEY HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY
AND AREAL COVERAGE.

WHILE I EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE...A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO COULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  IF THEY DO...EXPECT
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS
AT MOST.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS DRY BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING NOT JUST SPRINKLES BUT A GOOD TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP.  FEEL THIS MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM
THE CONVECTION OVER NEW YORK AND PA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND THAT WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S.  THAT WARM...MOIST AIR
FLOWING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG OVER THE OCEAN AND BLEEDING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS
AND FOG WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN
AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262014
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
414 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT...MERRIMACK AND PIONEER VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
CLOUD COVER HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED TO THIN CIRRUS WHICH HAS ALLOWED
THE TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB JUST IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

IN ADDITION...DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE IN THESE AREAS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED
MAINLY OVER NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA.  AS THESE TRAVEL
EASTWARD INTO MASSACHUSETTS THEY HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY
AND AREAL COVERAGE.

WHILE I EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE...A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO COULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  IF THEY DO...EXPECT
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS
AT MOST.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS DRY BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING NOT JUST SPRINKLES BUT A GOOD TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP.  FEEL THIS MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM
THE CONVECTION OVER NEW YORK AND PA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND THAT WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S.  THAT WARM...MOIST AIR
FLOWING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG OVER THE OCEAN AND BLEEDING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND
LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT
LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5
INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE
MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER
AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS
AND FOG WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN
AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE WATERS
TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT...
MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI
NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261905
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
305 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MORE HUMID SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND MOVES OFF THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
RETURN.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NH THIS EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. THEN LATER TONIGHT A FEW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF NH AND THE MOUNTAINS OF ME AS VERY
MINOR IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. OTHERWISE...A WARM
MUGGY SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 60S. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MUGGY AS THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM THE
OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE ARRIVING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BECOME VERY HIGH. INCREASING SHEAR IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE AS A SHORT WAVE ROTATING NORTHEAST
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND
THEN MOVE EAST INTO OUR REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. AT SOME POINT IF SOME TRAINING OF SOME OF THE CELLS OCCURS
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS
FOR TEMPS AND POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
CRITICAL TO THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN CLIMATOLOGY
PREFERS FOR A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...A WARM
AND HUMID START TO THE DAY SHOULD GIVE THE AREA A HEAD START ON
MODERATE INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY LATE MORNING. WITH
INSTABILITY...FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND WIND SHEAR INCREASING JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT...A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. A FEW COULD BE SEVERE.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
A RETURN OF VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
COULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD MUCH NEEDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES LATER
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. SOME COASTAL AND EVEN
INLAND STRATUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT LOWERING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT. LOCALLY LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR.


LONG TERM...LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3-6
FT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED. FOR
TONIGHT INTO WED WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRIT BUT WILL
INCREASE WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...AND THEN
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REST
OF THE WEEK...AND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOWER THAN IT
HAS BEEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARINE
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...MARINE
MARINE...EKSTER/MARINE
FIRE WEATHER...MARINE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261905
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
305 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MORE HUMID SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND MOVES OFF THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
RETURN.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NH THIS EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. THEN LATER TONIGHT A FEW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF NH AND THE MOUNTAINS OF ME AS VERY
MINOR IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. OTHERWISE...A WARM
MUGGY SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 60S. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MUGGY AS THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM THE
OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE ARRIVING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BECOME VERY HIGH. INCREASING SHEAR IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE AS A SHORT WAVE ROTATING NORTHEAST
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND
THEN MOVE EAST INTO OUR REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. AT SOME POINT IF SOME TRAINING OF SOME OF THE CELLS OCCURS
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS
FOR TEMPS AND POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
CRITICAL TO THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN CLIMATOLOGY
PREFERS FOR A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...A WARM
AND HUMID START TO THE DAY SHOULD GIVE THE AREA A HEAD START ON
MODERATE INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY LATE MORNING. WITH
INSTABILITY...FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND WIND SHEAR INCREASING JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT...A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. A FEW COULD BE SEVERE.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
A RETURN OF VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
COULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD MUCH NEEDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES LATER
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. SOME COASTAL AND EVEN
INLAND STRATUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT LOWERING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT. LOCALLY LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR.


LONG TERM...LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3-6
FT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED. FOR
TONIGHT INTO WED WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRIT BUT WILL
INCREASE WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...AND THEN
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REST
OF THE WEEK...AND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOWER THAN IT
HAS BEEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARINE
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...MARINE
MARINE...EKSTER/MARINE
FIRE WEATHER...MARINE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261905
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
305 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MORE HUMID SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND MOVES OFF THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
RETURN.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NH THIS EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. THEN LATER TONIGHT A FEW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF NH AND THE MOUNTAINS OF ME AS VERY
MINOR IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. OTHERWISE...A WARM
MUGGY SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 60S. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MUGGY AS THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM THE
OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE ARRIVING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BECOME VERY HIGH. INCREASING SHEAR IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE AS A SHORT WAVE ROTATING NORTHEAST
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND
THEN MOVE EAST INTO OUR REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. AT SOME POINT IF SOME TRAINING OF SOME OF THE CELLS OCCURS
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS
FOR TEMPS AND POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
CRITICAL TO THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN CLIMATOLOGY
PREFERS FOR A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...A WARM
AND HUMID START TO THE DAY SHOULD GIVE THE AREA A HEAD START ON
MODERATE INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY LATE MORNING. WITH
INSTABILITY...FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND WIND SHEAR INCREASING JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT...A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. A FEW COULD BE SEVERE.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
A RETURN OF VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
COULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD MUCH NEEDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES LATER
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. SOME COASTAL AND EVEN
INLAND STRATUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT LOWERING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT. LOCALLY LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR.


LONG TERM...LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3-6
FT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED. FOR
TONIGHT INTO WED WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRIT BUT WILL
INCREASE WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...AND THEN
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REST
OF THE WEEK...AND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOWER THAN IT
HAS BEEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARINE
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...MARINE
MARINE...EKSTER/MARINE
FIRE WEATHER...MARINE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261905
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
305 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MORE HUMID SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND MOVES OFF THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
RETURN.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NH THIS EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. THEN LATER TONIGHT A FEW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF NH AND THE MOUNTAINS OF ME AS VERY
MINOR IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. OTHERWISE...A WARM
MUGGY SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 60S. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MUGGY AS THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM THE
OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE ARRIVING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BECOME VERY HIGH. INCREASING SHEAR IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE AS A SHORT WAVE ROTATING NORTHEAST
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND
THEN MOVE EAST INTO OUR REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. AT SOME POINT IF SOME TRAINING OF SOME OF THE CELLS OCCURS
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS
FOR TEMPS AND POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
CRITICAL TO THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN CLIMATOLOGY
PREFERS FOR A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...A WARM
AND HUMID START TO THE DAY SHOULD GIVE THE AREA A HEAD START ON
MODERATE INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY LATE MORNING. WITH
INSTABILITY...FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND WIND SHEAR INCREASING JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT...A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. A FEW COULD BE SEVERE.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
A RETURN OF VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
COULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD MUCH NEEDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES LATER
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. SOME COASTAL AND EVEN
INLAND STRATUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT LOWERING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT. LOCALLY LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR.


LONG TERM...LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3-6
FT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED. FOR
TONIGHT INTO WED WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRIT BUT WILL
INCREASE WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...AND THEN
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REST
OF THE WEEK...AND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOWER THAN IT
HAS BEEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARINE
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...MARINE
MARINE...EKSTER/MARINE
FIRE WEATHER...MARINE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261905
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
305 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MORE HUMID SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND MOVES OFF THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
RETURN.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NH THIS EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. THEN LATER TONIGHT A FEW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF NH AND THE MOUNTAINS OF ME AS VERY
MINOR IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. OTHERWISE...A WARM
MUGGY SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 60S. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MUGGY AS THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM THE
OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE ARRIVING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BECOME VERY HIGH. INCREASING SHEAR IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE AS A SHORT WAVE ROTATING NORTHEAST
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND
THEN MOVE EAST INTO OUR REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. AT SOME POINT IF SOME TRAINING OF SOME OF THE CELLS OCCURS
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS
FOR TEMPS AND POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
CRITICAL TO THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN CLIMATOLOGY
PREFERS FOR A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...A WARM
AND HUMID START TO THE DAY SHOULD GIVE THE AREA A HEAD START ON
MODERATE INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY LATE MORNING. WITH
INSTABILITY...FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND WIND SHEAR INCREASING JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT...A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. A FEW COULD BE SEVERE.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
A RETURN OF VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
COULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD MUCH NEEDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES LATER
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. SOME COASTAL AND EVEN
INLAND STRATUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT LOWERING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT. LOCALLY LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR.


LONG TERM...LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3-6
FT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED. FOR
TONIGHT INTO WED WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRIT BUT WILL
INCREASE WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...AND THEN
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REST
OF THE WEEK...AND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOWER THAN IT
HAS BEEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARINE
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...MARINE
MARINE...EKSTER/MARINE
FIRE WEATHER...MARINE




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261802
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
202 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. MADE SOME MINOR
UPDATES TO THE TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MID 60S ON THE SOUTH
COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND
LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT
LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5
INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE
MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER
AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS
AND FOG WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN
AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...INCREASED WIND GUSTS BASED ON MARINE OBSERVATIONS.
THIS RESULTED IN THE NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON BLOCK
ISLAND SOUND AND MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY SO HAVE
EXPANDED THE SCA ACCORDINGLY.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT...
MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI
NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261802
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
202 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. MADE SOME MINOR
UPDATES TO THE TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MID 60S ON THE SOUTH
COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND
LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT
LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5
INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE
MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER
AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS
AND FOG WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN
AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...INCREASED WIND GUSTS BASED ON MARINE OBSERVATIONS.
THIS RESULTED IN THE NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON BLOCK
ISLAND SOUND AND MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY SO HAVE
EXPANDED THE SCA ACCORDINGLY.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT...
MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI
NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261603
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1203 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOON UPDATE: LARGE CLEAR SLOT OF DRY AIR WORKING INTO SOUTHERN NH
AND SOUTHWEST ME SO ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT MOSUN CONDS FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THOSE AREAS. ALSO BUMPED UP MAX
TEMPERATURES MOST SPOTS BY JUST A FEW DEGREES DUE TO MORE SUN THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

920 AM UPDATE: QUICK UPDATE WHICH ADDED SOME LOW POPS INTO EAST
CENTRAL NH AND SOUTHWEST ME FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED IN THAT AREA BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE OR
MOVE EAST. ELSEWHERE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST OBS.

620 AM...UPDATED TO PRETTY MUCH REMOVE POPS FROM ALL BUT FAR ERN
ZONES THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVING OUT AND WARM AIR MOVING
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODE THIS MORNING
WITH PARTLY- MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUSLY...SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THRU. SFC FRONT AT 07Z LOOKS LIKE ITS RUNS NW-SE FROM
KHIE- KPSM AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NEWD THIS MORNING. FAIRLY
STABLE WITH LITTLE FORCING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...AND ANY SHRA
SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE N AND E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
BE OUT OF THE CWA 09-12Z....FROM SW- NE.

TDS ALREADY RISING S OF THE WARM FRONT AND THEY WILL CREEP UP INTO
THE LOW 60S TODAY IN SOME AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT BREEZY SW
WINDS COULD KEEP THEM A LITTLE LOWER TODAY IN THE DOWNSLOPE.
ENOUGH FLOW TO PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT SEA BREEZE FROM
DEVELOPING...SO COASTAL AREAS FROM CASCO BAY S WILL WARM INTO HE
80S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MID COAST THE COOLEST...GENERALLY
STUCK IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. AFTER A CLOUDY START SHOULD SEE MORE
SUN THAN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL TONIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY...AS FAR AS RAIN
GOES...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS WANT TO POPS A FEW
SHRA OVER THE TERRAIN OF NH OVERNIGHT. GIVEN SOME INSTABILITY AND
TERRAIN CANNOT REALLY ARGUE WITH IT...BUT THERE IS REALLY A LACK
OF FORCING ABV THE BOUNDARY LYR. IT WILL BE A HUMID NIGHT WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. COULD SEE SOME COASTAL
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOP AS WELL.

ANY MORNING CLOUDS /FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY...GIVEN
PERSISTENT SW FLOW AND EXPECTING THE DAY TO START WITH SOME
SUN...AND SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY. PERHAPS A BIT WARMER IN THE MTNS,...AND JUST A BIT COOLERAT
THE COAST AS THE FLOW DOES WEAKEN A BIT...AND THERE WILL BETTER
TURNING ONSHORE.

THE DAY GETS MORE INTERESTING AS A FLATTENING 500MB WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE BEST
DYNAMICS SHOULD LIFT N OF THE CWA...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
HEIGHT FALLS AND ENOUGH INCREASE IN MID LVL WINDS FOR CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP WITH CAPES IN THE VICINITY OF 1000-1500 J/KG. COULD
SEE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THESE STORMS WHICH HAVE THE BEST
CHC OF FORMING OVER THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS AND CT VLY. ALSO OF CONCERN
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINERS...AS PWATS CLIMB TO
WELL ABV NORMAL AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT TURNS JUST ENOUGH FOR
BACK-BUILDING POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFFSHORE...THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION. A
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...THAT WILL WASHOUT AS IT SLIDES OFFSHORE AND ENCOUNTERS
THE UPPER RIDGE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY RETREAT
FURTHER OFFSHORE...OPENING THE DOOR FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD BY TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. SOME COASTAL
FOG/STRATUS MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT KRKD...AND WILL LKLY SEE
SOME VLY FOG AT KLEB/KHIE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WED
AFTERNOON...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.


LONG TERM...

THU...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

SAT...AREAS OF MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT...BUT SUB-SCA...SW FLOW IS HELPING BUILD
SWELLTO AROUND 5 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS SHOULD HOLD BLO
SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO HOLD TO 5FT OR LESS INTO WED...BUT COULD
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY.


LONG TERM...

THU AND SAT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY. GUSTS
APPROACHING GALE FORCE ARE PSBL OUTSIDE THE BAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REST
OF THE WEEK...AND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARINE
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...MARINE
MARINE...EKSTER/MARINE
FIRE WEATHER...MARINE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 261603
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1203 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOON UPDATE: LARGE CLEAR SLOT OF DRY AIR WORKING INTO SOUTHERN NH
AND SOUTHWEST ME SO ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT MOSUN CONDS FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THOSE AREAS. ALSO BUMPED UP MAX
TEMPERATURES MOST SPOTS BY JUST A FEW DEGREES DUE TO MORE SUN THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

920 AM UPDATE: QUICK UPDATE WHICH ADDED SOME LOW POPS INTO EAST
CENTRAL NH AND SOUTHWEST ME FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED IN THAT AREA BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE OR
MOVE EAST. ELSEWHERE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST OBS.

620 AM...UPDATED TO PRETTY MUCH REMOVE POPS FROM ALL BUT FAR ERN
ZONES THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVING OUT AND WARM AIR MOVING
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODE THIS MORNING
WITH PARTLY- MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUSLY...SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THRU. SFC FRONT AT 07Z LOOKS LIKE ITS RUNS NW-SE FROM
KHIE- KPSM AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NEWD THIS MORNING. FAIRLY
STABLE WITH LITTLE FORCING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...AND ANY SHRA
SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE N AND E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
BE OUT OF THE CWA 09-12Z....FROM SW- NE.

TDS ALREADY RISING S OF THE WARM FRONT AND THEY WILL CREEP UP INTO
THE LOW 60S TODAY IN SOME AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT BREEZY SW
WINDS COULD KEEP THEM A LITTLE LOWER TODAY IN THE DOWNSLOPE.
ENOUGH FLOW TO PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT SEA BREEZE FROM
DEVELOPING...SO COASTAL AREAS FROM CASCO BAY S WILL WARM INTO HE
80S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MID COAST THE COOLEST...GENERALLY
STUCK IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. AFTER A CLOUDY START SHOULD SEE MORE
SUN THAN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL TONIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY...AS FAR AS RAIN
GOES...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS WANT TO POPS A FEW
SHRA OVER THE TERRAIN OF NH OVERNIGHT. GIVEN SOME INSTABILITY AND
TERRAIN CANNOT REALLY ARGUE WITH IT...BUT THERE IS REALLY A LACK
OF FORCING ABV THE BOUNDARY LYR. IT WILL BE A HUMID NIGHT WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. COULD SEE SOME COASTAL
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOP AS WELL.

ANY MORNING CLOUDS /FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY...GIVEN
PERSISTENT SW FLOW AND EXPECTING THE DAY TO START WITH SOME
SUN...AND SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY. PERHAPS A BIT WARMER IN THE MTNS,...AND JUST A BIT COOLERAT
THE COAST AS THE FLOW DOES WEAKEN A BIT...AND THERE WILL BETTER
TURNING ONSHORE.

THE DAY GETS MORE INTERESTING AS A FLATTENING 500MB WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE BEST
DYNAMICS SHOULD LIFT N OF THE CWA...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
HEIGHT FALLS AND ENOUGH INCREASE IN MID LVL WINDS FOR CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP WITH CAPES IN THE VICINITY OF 1000-1500 J/KG. COULD
SEE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THESE STORMS WHICH HAVE THE BEST
CHC OF FORMING OVER THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS AND CT VLY. ALSO OF CONCERN
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINERS...AS PWATS CLIMB TO
WELL ABV NORMAL AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT TURNS JUST ENOUGH FOR
BACK-BUILDING POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFFSHORE...THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION. A
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...THAT WILL WASHOUT AS IT SLIDES OFFSHORE AND ENCOUNTERS
THE UPPER RIDGE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY RETREAT
FURTHER OFFSHORE...OPENING THE DOOR FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD BY TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. SOME COASTAL
FOG/STRATUS MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT KRKD...AND WILL LKLY SEE
SOME VLY FOG AT KLEB/KHIE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WED
AFTERNOON...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.


LONG TERM...

THU...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

SAT...AREAS OF MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT...BUT SUB-SCA...SW FLOW IS HELPING BUILD
SWELLTO AROUND 5 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS SHOULD HOLD BLO
SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO HOLD TO 5FT OR LESS INTO WED...BUT COULD
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY.


LONG TERM...

THU AND SAT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY. GUSTS
APPROACHING GALE FORCE ARE PSBL OUTSIDE THE BAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REST
OF THE WEEK...AND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARINE
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...MARINE
MARINE...EKSTER/MARINE
FIRE WEATHER...MARINE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 261603
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1203 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOON UPDATE: LARGE CLEAR SLOT OF DRY AIR WORKING INTO SOUTHERN NH
AND SOUTHWEST ME SO ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT MOSUN CONDS FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THOSE AREAS. ALSO BUMPED UP MAX
TEMPERATURES MOST SPOTS BY JUST A FEW DEGREES DUE TO MORE SUN THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

920 AM UPDATE: QUICK UPDATE WHICH ADDED SOME LOW POPS INTO EAST
CENTRAL NH AND SOUTHWEST ME FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED IN THAT AREA BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE OR
MOVE EAST. ELSEWHERE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST OBS.

620 AM...UPDATED TO PRETTY MUCH REMOVE POPS FROM ALL BUT FAR ERN
ZONES THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVING OUT AND WARM AIR MOVING
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODE THIS MORNING
WITH PARTLY- MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUSLY...SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THRU. SFC FRONT AT 07Z LOOKS LIKE ITS RUNS NW-SE FROM
KHIE- KPSM AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NEWD THIS MORNING. FAIRLY
STABLE WITH LITTLE FORCING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...AND ANY SHRA
SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE N AND E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
BE OUT OF THE CWA 09-12Z....FROM SW- NE.

TDS ALREADY RISING S OF THE WARM FRONT AND THEY WILL CREEP UP INTO
THE LOW 60S TODAY IN SOME AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT BREEZY SW
WINDS COULD KEEP THEM A LITTLE LOWER TODAY IN THE DOWNSLOPE.
ENOUGH FLOW TO PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT SEA BREEZE FROM
DEVELOPING...SO COASTAL AREAS FROM CASCO BAY S WILL WARM INTO HE
80S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MID COAST THE COOLEST...GENERALLY
STUCK IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. AFTER A CLOUDY START SHOULD SEE MORE
SUN THAN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL TONIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY...AS FAR AS RAIN
GOES...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS WANT TO POPS A FEW
SHRA OVER THE TERRAIN OF NH OVERNIGHT. GIVEN SOME INSTABILITY AND
TERRAIN CANNOT REALLY ARGUE WITH IT...BUT THERE IS REALLY A LACK
OF FORCING ABV THE BOUNDARY LYR. IT WILL BE A HUMID NIGHT WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. COULD SEE SOME COASTAL
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOP AS WELL.

ANY MORNING CLOUDS /FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY...GIVEN
PERSISTENT SW FLOW AND EXPECTING THE DAY TO START WITH SOME
SUN...AND SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY. PERHAPS A BIT WARMER IN THE MTNS,...AND JUST A BIT COOLERAT
THE COAST AS THE FLOW DOES WEAKEN A BIT...AND THERE WILL BETTER
TURNING ONSHORE.

THE DAY GETS MORE INTERESTING AS A FLATTENING 500MB WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE BEST
DYNAMICS SHOULD LIFT N OF THE CWA...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
HEIGHT FALLS AND ENOUGH INCREASE IN MID LVL WINDS FOR CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP WITH CAPES IN THE VICINITY OF 1000-1500 J/KG. COULD
SEE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THESE STORMS WHICH HAVE THE BEST
CHC OF FORMING OVER THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS AND CT VLY. ALSO OF CONCERN
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINERS...AS PWATS CLIMB TO
WELL ABV NORMAL AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT TURNS JUST ENOUGH FOR
BACK-BUILDING POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFFSHORE...THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION. A
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...THAT WILL WASHOUT AS IT SLIDES OFFSHORE AND ENCOUNTERS
THE UPPER RIDGE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY RETREAT
FURTHER OFFSHORE...OPENING THE DOOR FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD BY TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. SOME COASTAL
FOG/STRATUS MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT KRKD...AND WILL LKLY SEE
SOME VLY FOG AT KLEB/KHIE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WED
AFTERNOON...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.


LONG TERM...

THU...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

SAT...AREAS OF MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT...BUT SUB-SCA...SW FLOW IS HELPING BUILD
SWELLTO AROUND 5 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS SHOULD HOLD BLO
SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO HOLD TO 5FT OR LESS INTO WED...BUT COULD
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY.


LONG TERM...

THU AND SAT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY. GUSTS
APPROACHING GALE FORCE ARE PSBL OUTSIDE THE BAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REST
OF THE WEEK...AND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARINE
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...MARINE
MARINE...EKSTER/MARINE
FIRE WEATHER...MARINE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 261603
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1203 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOON UPDATE: LARGE CLEAR SLOT OF DRY AIR WORKING INTO SOUTHERN NH
AND SOUTHWEST ME SO ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT MOSUN CONDS FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THOSE AREAS. ALSO BUMPED UP MAX
TEMPERATURES MOST SPOTS BY JUST A FEW DEGREES DUE TO MORE SUN THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

920 AM UPDATE: QUICK UPDATE WHICH ADDED SOME LOW POPS INTO EAST
CENTRAL NH AND SOUTHWEST ME FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED IN THAT AREA BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE OR
MOVE EAST. ELSEWHERE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST OBS.

620 AM...UPDATED TO PRETTY MUCH REMOVE POPS FROM ALL BUT FAR ERN
ZONES THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVING OUT AND WARM AIR MOVING
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODE THIS MORNING
WITH PARTLY- MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUSLY...SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THRU. SFC FRONT AT 07Z LOOKS LIKE ITS RUNS NW-SE FROM
KHIE- KPSM AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NEWD THIS MORNING. FAIRLY
STABLE WITH LITTLE FORCING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...AND ANY SHRA
SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE N AND E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
BE OUT OF THE CWA 09-12Z....FROM SW- NE.

TDS ALREADY RISING S OF THE WARM FRONT AND THEY WILL CREEP UP INTO
THE LOW 60S TODAY IN SOME AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT BREEZY SW
WINDS COULD KEEP THEM A LITTLE LOWER TODAY IN THE DOWNSLOPE.
ENOUGH FLOW TO PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT SEA BREEZE FROM
DEVELOPING...SO COASTAL AREAS FROM CASCO BAY S WILL WARM INTO HE
80S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MID COAST THE COOLEST...GENERALLY
STUCK IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. AFTER A CLOUDY START SHOULD SEE MORE
SUN THAN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL TONIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY...AS FAR AS RAIN
GOES...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS WANT TO POPS A FEW
SHRA OVER THE TERRAIN OF NH OVERNIGHT. GIVEN SOME INSTABILITY AND
TERRAIN CANNOT REALLY ARGUE WITH IT...BUT THERE IS REALLY A LACK
OF FORCING ABV THE BOUNDARY LYR. IT WILL BE A HUMID NIGHT WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. COULD SEE SOME COASTAL
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOP AS WELL.

ANY MORNING CLOUDS /FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY...GIVEN
PERSISTENT SW FLOW AND EXPECTING THE DAY TO START WITH SOME
SUN...AND SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY. PERHAPS A BIT WARMER IN THE MTNS,...AND JUST A BIT COOLERAT
THE COAST AS THE FLOW DOES WEAKEN A BIT...AND THERE WILL BETTER
TURNING ONSHORE.

THE DAY GETS MORE INTERESTING AS A FLATTENING 500MB WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE BEST
DYNAMICS SHOULD LIFT N OF THE CWA...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
HEIGHT FALLS AND ENOUGH INCREASE IN MID LVL WINDS FOR CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP WITH CAPES IN THE VICINITY OF 1000-1500 J/KG. COULD
SEE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THESE STORMS WHICH HAVE THE BEST
CHC OF FORMING OVER THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS AND CT VLY. ALSO OF CONCERN
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINERS...AS PWATS CLIMB TO
WELL ABV NORMAL AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT TURNS JUST ENOUGH FOR
BACK-BUILDING POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFFSHORE...THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION. A
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...THAT WILL WASHOUT AS IT SLIDES OFFSHORE AND ENCOUNTERS
THE UPPER RIDGE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY RETREAT
FURTHER OFFSHORE...OPENING THE DOOR FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD BY TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. SOME COASTAL
FOG/STRATUS MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT KRKD...AND WILL LKLY SEE
SOME VLY FOG AT KLEB/KHIE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WED
AFTERNOON...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.


LONG TERM...

THU...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

SAT...AREAS OF MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT...BUT SUB-SCA...SW FLOW IS HELPING BUILD
SWELLTO AROUND 5 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS SHOULD HOLD BLO
SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO HOLD TO 5FT OR LESS INTO WED...BUT COULD
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY.


LONG TERM...

THU AND SAT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY. GUSTS
APPROACHING GALE FORCE ARE PSBL OUTSIDE THE BAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REST
OF THE WEEK...AND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARINE
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...MARINE
MARINE...EKSTER/MARINE
FIRE WEATHER...MARINE



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261406
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1006 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. MADE SOME MINOR
UPDATES TO THE TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MID 60S ON THE SOUTH
COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND
LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT
LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5
INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE
MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER
AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...INCREASED WIND GUSTS BASED ON MARINE OBSERVATIONS.
THIS RESULTED IN THE NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON BLOCK
ISLAND SOUND AND MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY SO HAVE
EXPANDED THE SCA ACCORDINGLY.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT...
MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI
NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261406
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1006 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. MADE SOME MINOR
UPDATES TO THE TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MID 60S ON THE SOUTH
COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND
LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT
LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5
INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE
MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER
AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...INCREASED WIND GUSTS BASED ON MARINE OBSERVATIONS.
THIS RESULTED IN THE NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON BLOCK
ISLAND SOUND AND MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY SO HAVE
EXPANDED THE SCA ACCORDINGLY.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT...
MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI
NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261406
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1006 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. MADE SOME MINOR
UPDATES TO THE TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MID 60S ON THE SOUTH
COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND
LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT
LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5
INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE
MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER
AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...INCREASED WIND GUSTS BASED ON MARINE OBSERVATIONS.
THIS RESULTED IN THE NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON BLOCK
ISLAND SOUND AND MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY SO HAVE
EXPANDED THE SCA ACCORDINGLY.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT...
MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI
NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KGYX 261333
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
933 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
920 AM UPDATE: QUICK UPDATE WHICH ADDED SOME LOW POPS INTO EAST
CENTRAL NH AND SOUTHWEST ME FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED IN THAT AREA BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE OR
MOVE EAST. ELSEWHERE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST OBS.

620 AM...UPDATED TO PRETTY MUCH REMOVE POPS FROM ALL BUT FAR ERN
ZONES THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVING OUT AND WARM AIR MOVING
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODE THIS MORNING
WITH PARTLY- MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUSLY...SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THRU. SFC FRONT AT 07Z LOOKS LIKE ITS RUNS NW-SE FROM
KHIE- KPSM AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NEWD THIS MORNING. FAIRLY
STABLE WITH LITTLE FORCING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...AND ANY SHRA
SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE N AND E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
BE OUT OF THE CWA 09-12Z....FROM SW- NE.

TDS ALREADY RISING S OF THE WARM FRONT AND THEY WILL CREEP UP INTO
THE LOW 60S TODAY IN SOME AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT BREEZY SW
WINDS COULD KEEP THEM A LITTLE LOWER TODAY IN THE DOWNSLOPE.
ENOUGH FLOW TO PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT SEA BREEZE FROM
DEVELOPING...SO COASTAL AREAS FROM CASCO BAY S WILL WARM INTO HE
80S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MID COAST THE COOLEST...GENERALLY
STUCK IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. AFTER A CLOUDY START SHOULD SEE MORE
SUN THAN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL TONIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY...AS FAR AS RAIN
GOES...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS WANT TO POPS A FEW
SHRA OVER THE TERRAIN OF NH OVERNIGHT. GIVEN SOME INSTABILITY AND
TERRAIN CANNOT REALLY ARGUE WITH IT...BUT THERE IS REALLY A LACK
OF FORCING ABV THE BOUNDARY LYR. IT WILL BE A HUMID NIGHT WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. COULD SEE SOME COASTAL
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOP AS WELL.

ANY MORNING CLOUDS /FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY...GIVEN
PERSISTENT SW FLOW AND EXPECTING THE DAY TO START WITH SOME
SUN...AND SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY. PERHAPS A BIT WARMER IN THE MTNS,...AND JUST A BIT COOLERAT
THE COAST AS THE FLOW DOES WEAKEN A BIT...AND THERE WILL BETTER
TURNING ONSHORE.

THE DAY GETS MORE INTERESTING AS A FLATTENING 500MB WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE BEST
DYNAMICS SHOULD LIFT N OF THE CWA...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
HEIGHT FALLS AND ENOUGH INCREASE IN MID LVL WINDS FOR CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP WITH CAPES IN THE VICINITY OF 1000-1500 J/KG. COULD
SEE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THESE STORMS WHICH HAVE THE BEST
CHC OF FORMING OVER THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS AND CT VLY. ALSO OF CONCERN
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINERS...AS PWATS CLIMB TO
WELL ABV NORMAL AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT TURNS JUST ENOUGH FOR
BACK-BUILDING POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFFSHORE...THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION. A
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...THAT WILL WASHOUT AS IT SLIDES OFFSHORE AND ENCOUNTERS
THE UPPER RIDGE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY RETREAT
FURTHER OFFSHORE...OPENING THE DOOR FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD BY TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. SOME COASTAL
FOG/STRATUS MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT KRKD...AND WILL LKLY SEE
SOME VLY FOG AT KLEB/KHIE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WED
AFTERNOON...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.


LONG TERM...

THU...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

SAT...AREAS OF MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT...BUT SUB-SCA...SW FLOW IS HELPING BUILD
SWELLTO AROUND 5 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS SHOULD HOLD BLO
SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO HOLD TO 5FT OR LESS INTO WED...BUT COULD
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY.


LONG TERM...

THU AND SAT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY. GUSTS
APPROACHING GALE FORCE ARE PSBL OUTSIDE THE BAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REST
OF THE WEEK...AND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARINE
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...MARINE
MARINE...EKSTER/MARINE
FIRE WEATHER...MARINE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261333
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
933 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
920 AM UPDATE: QUICK UPDATE WHICH ADDED SOME LOW POPS INTO EAST
CENTRAL NH AND SOUTHWEST ME FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED IN THAT AREA BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE OR
MOVE EAST. ELSEWHERE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST OBS.

620 AM...UPDATED TO PRETTY MUCH REMOVE POPS FROM ALL BUT FAR ERN
ZONES THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVING OUT AND WARM AIR MOVING
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODE THIS MORNING
WITH PARTLY- MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUSLY...SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THRU. SFC FRONT AT 07Z LOOKS LIKE ITS RUNS NW-SE FROM
KHIE- KPSM AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NEWD THIS MORNING. FAIRLY
STABLE WITH LITTLE FORCING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...AND ANY SHRA
SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE N AND E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
BE OUT OF THE CWA 09-12Z....FROM SW- NE.

TDS ALREADY RISING S OF THE WARM FRONT AND THEY WILL CREEP UP INTO
THE LOW 60S TODAY IN SOME AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT BREEZY SW
WINDS COULD KEEP THEM A LITTLE LOWER TODAY IN THE DOWNSLOPE.
ENOUGH FLOW TO PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT SEA BREEZE FROM
DEVELOPING...SO COASTAL AREAS FROM CASCO BAY S WILL WARM INTO HE
80S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MID COAST THE COOLEST...GENERALLY
STUCK IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. AFTER A CLOUDY START SHOULD SEE MORE
SUN THAN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL TONIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY...AS FAR AS RAIN
GOES...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS WANT TO POPS A FEW
SHRA OVER THE TERRAIN OF NH OVERNIGHT. GIVEN SOME INSTABILITY AND
TERRAIN CANNOT REALLY ARGUE WITH IT...BUT THERE IS REALLY A LACK
OF FORCING ABV THE BOUNDARY LYR. IT WILL BE A HUMID NIGHT WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. COULD SEE SOME COASTAL
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOP AS WELL.

ANY MORNING CLOUDS /FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY...GIVEN
PERSISTENT SW FLOW AND EXPECTING THE DAY TO START WITH SOME
SUN...AND SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY. PERHAPS A BIT WARMER IN THE MTNS,...AND JUST A BIT COOLERAT
THE COAST AS THE FLOW DOES WEAKEN A BIT...AND THERE WILL BETTER
TURNING ONSHORE.

THE DAY GETS MORE INTERESTING AS A FLATTENING 500MB WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE BEST
DYNAMICS SHOULD LIFT N OF THE CWA...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
HEIGHT FALLS AND ENOUGH INCREASE IN MID LVL WINDS FOR CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP WITH CAPES IN THE VICINITY OF 1000-1500 J/KG. COULD
SEE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THESE STORMS WHICH HAVE THE BEST
CHC OF FORMING OVER THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS AND CT VLY. ALSO OF CONCERN
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINERS...AS PWATS CLIMB TO
WELL ABV NORMAL AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT TURNS JUST ENOUGH FOR
BACK-BUILDING POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFFSHORE...THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION. A
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...THAT WILL WASHOUT AS IT SLIDES OFFSHORE AND ENCOUNTERS
THE UPPER RIDGE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY RETREAT
FURTHER OFFSHORE...OPENING THE DOOR FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD BY TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. SOME COASTAL
FOG/STRATUS MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT KRKD...AND WILL LKLY SEE
SOME VLY FOG AT KLEB/KHIE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WED
AFTERNOON...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.


LONG TERM...

THU...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

SAT...AREAS OF MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT...BUT SUB-SCA...SW FLOW IS HELPING BUILD
SWELLTO AROUND 5 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS SHOULD HOLD BLO
SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO HOLD TO 5FT OR LESS INTO WED...BUT COULD
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY.


LONG TERM...

THU AND SAT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY. GUSTS
APPROACHING GALE FORCE ARE PSBL OUTSIDE THE BAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REST
OF THE WEEK...AND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARINE
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...MARINE
MARINE...EKSTER/MARINE
FIRE WEATHER...MARINE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 261333
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
933 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
920 AM UPDATE: QUICK UPDATE WHICH ADDED SOME LOW POPS INTO EAST
CENTRAL NH AND SOUTHWEST ME FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED IN THAT AREA BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE OR
MOVE EAST. ELSEWHERE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST OBS.

620 AM...UPDATED TO PRETTY MUCH REMOVE POPS FROM ALL BUT FAR ERN
ZONES THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVING OUT AND WARM AIR MOVING
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODE THIS MORNING
WITH PARTLY- MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUSLY...SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THRU. SFC FRONT AT 07Z LOOKS LIKE ITS RUNS NW-SE FROM
KHIE- KPSM AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NEWD THIS MORNING. FAIRLY
STABLE WITH LITTLE FORCING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...AND ANY SHRA
SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE N AND E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
BE OUT OF THE CWA 09-12Z....FROM SW- NE.

TDS ALREADY RISING S OF THE WARM FRONT AND THEY WILL CREEP UP INTO
THE LOW 60S TODAY IN SOME AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT BREEZY SW
WINDS COULD KEEP THEM A LITTLE LOWER TODAY IN THE DOWNSLOPE.
ENOUGH FLOW TO PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT SEA BREEZE FROM
DEVELOPING...SO COASTAL AREAS FROM CASCO BAY S WILL WARM INTO HE
80S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MID COAST THE COOLEST...GENERALLY
STUCK IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. AFTER A CLOUDY START SHOULD SEE MORE
SUN THAN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL TONIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY...AS FAR AS RAIN
GOES...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS WANT TO POPS A FEW
SHRA OVER THE TERRAIN OF NH OVERNIGHT. GIVEN SOME INSTABILITY AND
TERRAIN CANNOT REALLY ARGUE WITH IT...BUT THERE IS REALLY A LACK
OF FORCING ABV THE BOUNDARY LYR. IT WILL BE A HUMID NIGHT WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. COULD SEE SOME COASTAL
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOP AS WELL.

ANY MORNING CLOUDS /FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY...GIVEN
PERSISTENT SW FLOW AND EXPECTING THE DAY TO START WITH SOME
SUN...AND SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY. PERHAPS A BIT WARMER IN THE MTNS,...AND JUST A BIT COOLERAT
THE COAST AS THE FLOW DOES WEAKEN A BIT...AND THERE WILL BETTER
TURNING ONSHORE.

THE DAY GETS MORE INTERESTING AS A FLATTENING 500MB WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE BEST
DYNAMICS SHOULD LIFT N OF THE CWA...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
HEIGHT FALLS AND ENOUGH INCREASE IN MID LVL WINDS FOR CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP WITH CAPES IN THE VICINITY OF 1000-1500 J/KG. COULD
SEE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THESE STORMS WHICH HAVE THE BEST
CHC OF FORMING OVER THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS AND CT VLY. ALSO OF CONCERN
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINERS...AS PWATS CLIMB TO
WELL ABV NORMAL AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT TURNS JUST ENOUGH FOR
BACK-BUILDING POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFFSHORE...THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION. A
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...THAT WILL WASHOUT AS IT SLIDES OFFSHORE AND ENCOUNTERS
THE UPPER RIDGE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY RETREAT
FURTHER OFFSHORE...OPENING THE DOOR FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD BY TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. SOME COASTAL
FOG/STRATUS MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT KRKD...AND WILL LKLY SEE
SOME VLY FOG AT KLEB/KHIE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WED
AFTERNOON...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.


LONG TERM...

THU...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

SAT...AREAS OF MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT...BUT SUB-SCA...SW FLOW IS HELPING BUILD
SWELLTO AROUND 5 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS SHOULD HOLD BLO
SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO HOLD TO 5FT OR LESS INTO WED...BUT COULD
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY.


LONG TERM...

THU AND SAT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY. GUSTS
APPROACHING GALE FORCE ARE PSBL OUTSIDE THE BAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REST
OF THE WEEK...AND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARINE
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...MARINE
MARINE...EKSTER/MARINE
FIRE WEATHER...MARINE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261333
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
933 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
920 AM UPDATE: QUICK UPDATE WHICH ADDED SOME LOW POPS INTO EAST
CENTRAL NH AND SOUTHWEST ME FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED IN THAT AREA BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE OR
MOVE EAST. ELSEWHERE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST OBS.

620 AM...UPDATED TO PRETTY MUCH REMOVE POPS FROM ALL BUT FAR ERN
ZONES THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVING OUT AND WARM AIR MOVING
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODE THIS MORNING
WITH PARTLY- MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUSLY...SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THRU. SFC FRONT AT 07Z LOOKS LIKE ITS RUNS NW-SE FROM
KHIE- KPSM AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NEWD THIS MORNING. FAIRLY
STABLE WITH LITTLE FORCING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...AND ANY SHRA
SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE N AND E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
BE OUT OF THE CWA 09-12Z....FROM SW- NE.

TDS ALREADY RISING S OF THE WARM FRONT AND THEY WILL CREEP UP INTO
THE LOW 60S TODAY IN SOME AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT BREEZY SW
WINDS COULD KEEP THEM A LITTLE LOWER TODAY IN THE DOWNSLOPE.
ENOUGH FLOW TO PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT SEA BREEZE FROM
DEVELOPING...SO COASTAL AREAS FROM CASCO BAY S WILL WARM INTO HE
80S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MID COAST THE COOLEST...GENERALLY
STUCK IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. AFTER A CLOUDY START SHOULD SEE MORE
SUN THAN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL TONIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY...AS FAR AS RAIN
GOES...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS WANT TO POPS A FEW
SHRA OVER THE TERRAIN OF NH OVERNIGHT. GIVEN SOME INSTABILITY AND
TERRAIN CANNOT REALLY ARGUE WITH IT...BUT THERE IS REALLY A LACK
OF FORCING ABV THE BOUNDARY LYR. IT WILL BE A HUMID NIGHT WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. COULD SEE SOME COASTAL
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOP AS WELL.

ANY MORNING CLOUDS /FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY...GIVEN
PERSISTENT SW FLOW AND EXPECTING THE DAY TO START WITH SOME
SUN...AND SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY. PERHAPS A BIT WARMER IN THE MTNS,...AND JUST A BIT COOLERAT
THE COAST AS THE FLOW DOES WEAKEN A BIT...AND THERE WILL BETTER
TURNING ONSHORE.

THE DAY GETS MORE INTERESTING AS A FLATTENING 500MB WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE BEST
DYNAMICS SHOULD LIFT N OF THE CWA...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
HEIGHT FALLS AND ENOUGH INCREASE IN MID LVL WINDS FOR CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP WITH CAPES IN THE VICINITY OF 1000-1500 J/KG. COULD
SEE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THESE STORMS WHICH HAVE THE BEST
CHC OF FORMING OVER THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS AND CT VLY. ALSO OF CONCERN
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINERS...AS PWATS CLIMB TO
WELL ABV NORMAL AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT TURNS JUST ENOUGH FOR
BACK-BUILDING POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFFSHORE...THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION. A
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...THAT WILL WASHOUT AS IT SLIDES OFFSHORE AND ENCOUNTERS
THE UPPER RIDGE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY RETREAT
FURTHER OFFSHORE...OPENING THE DOOR FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD BY TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. SOME COASTAL
FOG/STRATUS MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT KRKD...AND WILL LKLY SEE
SOME VLY FOG AT KLEB/KHIE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WED
AFTERNOON...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.


LONG TERM...

THU...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

SAT...AREAS OF MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT...BUT SUB-SCA...SW FLOW IS HELPING BUILD
SWELLTO AROUND 5 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS SHOULD HOLD BLO
SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO HOLD TO 5FT OR LESS INTO WED...BUT COULD
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY.


LONG TERM...

THU AND SAT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY. GUSTS
APPROACHING GALE FORCE ARE PSBL OUTSIDE THE BAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REST
OF THE WEEK...AND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARINE
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...MARINE
MARINE...EKSTER/MARINE
FIRE WEATHER...MARINE



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261139
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
739 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
740 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS NH AND MAINE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS MIXING GETS UNDERWAY.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO BRING NEAR-TERM CONDITIONS BACK IN LINE
WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND
LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT
LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5
INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE
MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER
AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT...
MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI
NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261139
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
739 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
740 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS NH AND MAINE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS MIXING GETS UNDERWAY.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO BRING NEAR-TERM CONDITIONS BACK IN LINE
WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND
LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT
LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5
INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE
MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER
AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT...
MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI
NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261139
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
739 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
740 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS NH AND MAINE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS MIXING GETS UNDERWAY.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO BRING NEAR-TERM CONDITIONS BACK IN LINE
WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND
LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT
LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5
INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE
MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER
AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT...
MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI
NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261139
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
739 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
740 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS NH AND MAINE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS MIXING GETS UNDERWAY.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO BRING NEAR-TERM CONDITIONS BACK IN LINE
WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND
LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT
LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5
INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE
MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER
AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT...
MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI
NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261020
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
620 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. WARM AND MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
620 AM...UPDATED TO PRETTY MUCH REMOVE POPS FROM ALL BUT FAR ERN
ZONES THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVING OUT AND WARM AIR MOVING
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODE THIS
MORNING WITH PARTLY- MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUSLY...SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THRU. SFC FRONT AT 07Z LOOKS LIKE ITS RUNS NW-SE FROM
KHIE- KPSM AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NEWD THIS MORNING. FAIRLY
STABLE WITH LITTLE FORCING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...AND ANY SHRA
SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE N AND E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
BE OUT OF THE CWA 09-12Z....FROM SW- NE.

TDS ALREADY RISING S OF THE WARM FRONT AND THEY WILL CREEP UP INTO
THE LOW 60S TODAY IN SOME AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT BREEZY SW
WINDS COULD KEEP THEM A LITTLE LOWER TODAY IN THE DOWNSLOPE.
ENOUGH FLOW TO PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT SEA BREEZE FROM
DEVELOPING...SO COASTAL AREAS FROM CASCO BAY S WILL WARM INTO HE
80S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MID COAST THE COOLEST...GENERALLY
STUCK IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. AFTER A CLOUDY START SHOULD SEE MORE
SUN THAN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL TONIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY...AS FAR AS RAIN
GOES...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS WANT TO POPS A FEW
SHRA OVER THE TERRAIN OF NH OVERNIGHT. GIVEN SOME INSTABILITY AND
TERRAIN CANNOT REALLY ARGUE WITH IT...BUT THERE IS REALLY A LACK
OF FORCING ABV THE BOUNDARY LYR. IT WILL BE A HUMID NIGHT WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. COULD SEE SOME COASTAL
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOP AS WELL.

ANY MORNING CLOUDS /FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY...GIVEN
PERSISTENT SW FLOW AND EXPECTING THE DAY TO START WITH SOME
SUN...AND SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY. PERHAPS A BIT WARMER IN THE MTNS,...AND JUST A BIT COOLERAT
THE COAST AS THE FLOW DOES WEAKEN A BIT...AND THERE WILL BETTER
TURNING ONSHORE.

THE DAY GETS MORE INTERESTING AS A FLATTENING 500MB WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE BEST
DYNAMICS SHOULD LIFT N OF THE CWA...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
HEIGHT FALLS AND ENOUGH INCREASE IN MID LVL WINDS FOR CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP WITH CAPES IN THE VICINITY OF 1000-1500 J/KG. COULD
SEE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THESE STORMS WHICH HAVE THE BEST
CHC OF FORMING OVER THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS AND CT VLY. ALSO OF CONCERN
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINERS...AS PWATS CLIMB TO
WELL ABV NORMAL AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT TURNS JUST ENOUGH FOR
BACK-BUILDING POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFFSHORE...THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION. A
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...THAT WILL WASHOUT AS IT SLIDES OFFSHORE AND ENCOUNTERS
THE UPPER RIDGE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY RETREAT
FURTHER OFFSHORE...OPENING THE DOOR FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD BY TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING.
SOME COASTAL FOG/STRATUS MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT KRKD...AND
WILL LKLY SEE SOME VLY FOG AT KLEB/KHIE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.


LONG TERM...

THU...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

SAT...AREAS OF MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT...BUT SUB-SCA...SW FLOW IS HELPING BUILD
SWELLTO AROUND 5 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS SHOULD HOLD BLO
SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO HOLD TO 5FT OR LESS INTO WED...BUT COULD
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY.


LONG TERM...

THU AND SAT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY. GUSTS
APPROACHING GALE FORCE ARE PSBL OUTSIDE THE BAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REST
OF THE WEEK...AND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 261020
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
620 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. WARM AND MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
620 AM...UPDATED TO PRETTY MUCH REMOVE POPS FROM ALL BUT FAR ERN
ZONES THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVING OUT AND WARM AIR MOVING
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODE THIS
MORNING WITH PARTLY- MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUSLY...SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THRU. SFC FRONT AT 07Z LOOKS LIKE ITS RUNS NW-SE FROM
KHIE- KPSM AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NEWD THIS MORNING. FAIRLY
STABLE WITH LITTLE FORCING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...AND ANY SHRA
SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE N AND E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
BE OUT OF THE CWA 09-12Z....FROM SW- NE.

TDS ALREADY RISING S OF THE WARM FRONT AND THEY WILL CREEP UP INTO
THE LOW 60S TODAY IN SOME AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT BREEZY SW
WINDS COULD KEEP THEM A LITTLE LOWER TODAY IN THE DOWNSLOPE.
ENOUGH FLOW TO PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT SEA BREEZE FROM
DEVELOPING...SO COASTAL AREAS FROM CASCO BAY S WILL WARM INTO HE
80S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MID COAST THE COOLEST...GENERALLY
STUCK IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. AFTER A CLOUDY START SHOULD SEE MORE
SUN THAN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL TONIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY...AS FAR AS RAIN
GOES...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS WANT TO POPS A FEW
SHRA OVER THE TERRAIN OF NH OVERNIGHT. GIVEN SOME INSTABILITY AND
TERRAIN CANNOT REALLY ARGUE WITH IT...BUT THERE IS REALLY A LACK
OF FORCING ABV THE BOUNDARY LYR. IT WILL BE A HUMID NIGHT WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. COULD SEE SOME COASTAL
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOP AS WELL.

ANY MORNING CLOUDS /FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY...GIVEN
PERSISTENT SW FLOW AND EXPECTING THE DAY TO START WITH SOME
SUN...AND SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY. PERHAPS A BIT WARMER IN THE MTNS,...AND JUST A BIT COOLERAT
THE COAST AS THE FLOW DOES WEAKEN A BIT...AND THERE WILL BETTER
TURNING ONSHORE.

THE DAY GETS MORE INTERESTING AS A FLATTENING 500MB WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE BEST
DYNAMICS SHOULD LIFT N OF THE CWA...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
HEIGHT FALLS AND ENOUGH INCREASE IN MID LVL WINDS FOR CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP WITH CAPES IN THE VICINITY OF 1000-1500 J/KG. COULD
SEE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THESE STORMS WHICH HAVE THE BEST
CHC OF FORMING OVER THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS AND CT VLY. ALSO OF CONCERN
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINERS...AS PWATS CLIMB TO
WELL ABV NORMAL AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT TURNS JUST ENOUGH FOR
BACK-BUILDING POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFFSHORE...THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION. A
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...THAT WILL WASHOUT AS IT SLIDES OFFSHORE AND ENCOUNTERS
THE UPPER RIDGE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY RETREAT
FURTHER OFFSHORE...OPENING THE DOOR FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD BY TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING.
SOME COASTAL FOG/STRATUS MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT KRKD...AND
WILL LKLY SEE SOME VLY FOG AT KLEB/KHIE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.


LONG TERM...

THU...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

SAT...AREAS OF MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT...BUT SUB-SCA...SW FLOW IS HELPING BUILD
SWELLTO AROUND 5 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS SHOULD HOLD BLO
SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO HOLD TO 5FT OR LESS INTO WED...BUT COULD
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY.


LONG TERM...

THU AND SAT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY. GUSTS
APPROACHING GALE FORCE ARE PSBL OUTSIDE THE BAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REST
OF THE WEEK...AND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260851
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
451 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS NH AND MAINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
STEADY OVERNIGHT...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST OCCASIONALLY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND
LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT
LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5
INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE
MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER
AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...VFR. SOUTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE
CAPE OVERNIGHT.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT...
MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI
NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260851
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
451 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS NH AND MAINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
STEADY OVERNIGHT...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST OCCASIONALLY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND
LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT
LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5
INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE
MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER
AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...VFR. SOUTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE
CAPE OVERNIGHT.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT...
MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI
NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260851
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
451 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS NH AND MAINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
STEADY OVERNIGHT...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST OCCASIONALLY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND
LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT
LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5
INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE
MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER
AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...VFR. SOUTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE
CAPE OVERNIGHT.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT...
MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI
NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260851
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
451 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS NH AND MAINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
STEADY OVERNIGHT...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST OCCASIONALLY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND
LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT
LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5
INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE
MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER
AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...VFR. SOUTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE
CAPE OVERNIGHT.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT...
MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI
NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260814
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
414 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS NH AND MAINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
STEADY OVERNIGHT...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST OCCASIONALLY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE
SUMMER WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK. WILL SEE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THIS
WEEKEND AT LEAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THEN DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY
THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO TRY AND
PUSH S OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THESE FRONTS
MOVING INTO A NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER FLOW...WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN
AND WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE SOME RELIEF
TO THE EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE WED-FRI
TIMEFRAME WHEN BEST SHOT FOR DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MOVING NE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL U.S...WHERE THE RECORD FLOODING RAINS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. TIMING ISSUES COME INTO PLAY
THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH AND WHETHER IT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OR SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.

LEANED TOWARD AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND ECENS MEANS
WHICH WERE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE WEEKEND FRONT INTO THE REGION AS
ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE LONG WAVE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGING SHIFTS E DURING WED WITH SW WIND FLOW AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT IN PLACE. WILL SEE FIRST IN SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL SLOWLY PUSH SE TOWARD THE REGION. GOOD INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. MODEL CAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG /NAM
IS HIGHER/...K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND LI/S
FALLING BELOW ZERO. LOWEST PARAMETERS LOOK TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ALSO NOTING INCREASING PWATS...UP TO 1.8 TO 1.9
INCHES...SO COULD SEE SOME DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.

HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING...WITH HIGHEST FROM NE...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MASS INTO N CENTRAL CT WHERE BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONG OR
EVEN POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR. SPC HAS MARGINAL SHOT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A
COUPLE OF SPOTS APPROACHING 90 WELL INLAND.

MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS...DEVELOP DURING WED NIGHT AS DEWPTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED BUT STILL DECENT SO COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT LENDING
TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5 INCHES
BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY
CONVECTION. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG S COASTAL AREAS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. ALSO NOTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH DOES NOT
HELP IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY FROM NE MASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS INTO N CENTRAL CT WITH DEWPTS IN
THE 60S. ONE MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
MAINLY FROM COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO BE THE CASE WITH UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERNS TRYING TO BREAK DOWN. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
S COAST ON MONDAY WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER AIR
WORK INTO N MA DURING MON AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THIS TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...VFR. SOUTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE
CAPE OVERNIGHT.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.


THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING
AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE
OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...DUNTEN/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260814
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
414 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS NH AND MAINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
STEADY OVERNIGHT...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST OCCASIONALLY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE
SUMMER WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK. WILL SEE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THIS
WEEKEND AT LEAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THEN DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY
THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO TRY AND
PUSH S OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THESE FRONTS
MOVING INTO A NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER FLOW...WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN
AND WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE SOME RELIEF
TO THE EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE WED-FRI
TIMEFRAME WHEN BEST SHOT FOR DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MOVING NE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL U.S...WHERE THE RECORD FLOODING RAINS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. TIMING ISSUES COME INTO PLAY
THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH AND WHETHER IT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OR SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.

LEANED TOWARD AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND ECENS MEANS
WHICH WERE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE WEEKEND FRONT INTO THE REGION AS
ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE LONG WAVE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGING SHIFTS E DURING WED WITH SW WIND FLOW AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT IN PLACE. WILL SEE FIRST IN SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL SLOWLY PUSH SE TOWARD THE REGION. GOOD INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. MODEL CAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG /NAM
IS HIGHER/...K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND LI/S
FALLING BELOW ZERO. LOWEST PARAMETERS LOOK TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ALSO NOTING INCREASING PWATS...UP TO 1.8 TO 1.9
INCHES...SO COULD SEE SOME DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.

HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING...WITH HIGHEST FROM NE...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MASS INTO N CENTRAL CT WHERE BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONG OR
EVEN POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR. SPC HAS MARGINAL SHOT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A
COUPLE OF SPOTS APPROACHING 90 WELL INLAND.

MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS...DEVELOP DURING WED NIGHT AS DEWPTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED BUT STILL DECENT SO COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT LENDING
TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5 INCHES
BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY
CONVECTION. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG S COASTAL AREAS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. ALSO NOTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH DOES NOT
HELP IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY FROM NE MASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS INTO N CENTRAL CT WITH DEWPTS IN
THE 60S. ONE MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
MAINLY FROM COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO BE THE CASE WITH UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERNS TRYING TO BREAK DOWN. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
S COAST ON MONDAY WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER AIR
WORK INTO N MA DURING MON AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THIS TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...VFR. SOUTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE
CAPE OVERNIGHT.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.


THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING
AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE
OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...DUNTEN/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 260814
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
414 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS NH AND MAINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
STEADY OVERNIGHT...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST OCCASIONALLY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE
SUMMER WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK. WILL SEE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THIS
WEEKEND AT LEAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THEN DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY
THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO TRY AND
PUSH S OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THESE FRONTS
MOVING INTO A NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER FLOW...WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN
AND WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE SOME RELIEF
TO THE EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE WED-FRI
TIMEFRAME WHEN BEST SHOT FOR DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MOVING NE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL U.S...WHERE THE RECORD FLOODING RAINS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. TIMING ISSUES COME INTO PLAY
THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH AND WHETHER IT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OR SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.

LEANED TOWARD AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND ECENS MEANS
WHICH WERE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE WEEKEND FRONT INTO THE REGION AS
ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE LONG WAVE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGING SHIFTS E DURING WED WITH SW WIND FLOW AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT IN PLACE. WILL SEE FIRST IN SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL SLOWLY PUSH SE TOWARD THE REGION. GOOD INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. MODEL CAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG /NAM
IS HIGHER/...K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND LI/S
FALLING BELOW ZERO. LOWEST PARAMETERS LOOK TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ALSO NOTING INCREASING PWATS...UP TO 1.8 TO 1.9
INCHES...SO COULD SEE SOME DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.

HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING...WITH HIGHEST FROM NE...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MASS INTO N CENTRAL CT WHERE BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONG OR
EVEN POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR. SPC HAS MARGINAL SHOT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A
COUPLE OF SPOTS APPROACHING 90 WELL INLAND.

MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS...DEVELOP DURING WED NIGHT AS DEWPTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED BUT STILL DECENT SO COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT LENDING
TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5 INCHES
BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY
CONVECTION. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG S COASTAL AREAS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. ALSO NOTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH DOES NOT
HELP IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY FROM NE MASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS INTO N CENTRAL CT WITH DEWPTS IN
THE 60S. ONE MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
MAINLY FROM COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO BE THE CASE WITH UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERNS TRYING TO BREAK DOWN. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
S COAST ON MONDAY WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER AIR
WORK INTO N MA DURING MON AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THIS TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...VFR. SOUTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE
CAPE OVERNIGHT.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.


THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING
AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE
OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...DUNTEN/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260814
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
414 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS NH AND MAINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
STEADY OVERNIGHT...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST OCCASIONALLY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE
SUMMER WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK. WILL SEE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THIS
WEEKEND AT LEAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THEN DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY
THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO TRY AND
PUSH S OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THESE FRONTS
MOVING INTO A NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER FLOW...WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN
AND WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE SOME RELIEF
TO THE EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE WED-FRI
TIMEFRAME WHEN BEST SHOT FOR DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MOVING NE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL U.S...WHERE THE RECORD FLOODING RAINS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. TIMING ISSUES COME INTO PLAY
THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH AND WHETHER IT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OR SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.

LEANED TOWARD AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND ECENS MEANS
WHICH WERE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE WEEKEND FRONT INTO THE REGION AS
ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE LONG WAVE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGING SHIFTS E DURING WED WITH SW WIND FLOW AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT IN PLACE. WILL SEE FIRST IN SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL SLOWLY PUSH SE TOWARD THE REGION. GOOD INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. MODEL CAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG /NAM
IS HIGHER/...K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND LI/S
FALLING BELOW ZERO. LOWEST PARAMETERS LOOK TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ALSO NOTING INCREASING PWATS...UP TO 1.8 TO 1.9
INCHES...SO COULD SEE SOME DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.

HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING...WITH HIGHEST FROM NE...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MASS INTO N CENTRAL CT WHERE BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONG OR
EVEN POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR. SPC HAS MARGINAL SHOT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A
COUPLE OF SPOTS APPROACHING 90 WELL INLAND.

MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS...DEVELOP DURING WED NIGHT AS DEWPTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED BUT STILL DECENT SO COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT LENDING
TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5 INCHES
BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY
CONVECTION. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG S COASTAL AREAS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. ALSO NOTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH DOES NOT
HELP IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY FROM NE MASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS INTO N CENTRAL CT WITH DEWPTS IN
THE 60S. ONE MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
MAINLY FROM COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO BE THE CASE WITH UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERNS TRYING TO BREAK DOWN. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
S COAST ON MONDAY WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER AIR
WORK INTO N MA DURING MON AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THIS TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...VFR. SOUTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE
CAPE OVERNIGHT.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.


THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING
AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE
OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...DUNTEN/EVT



000
FXUS61 KGYX 260730
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
330 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. WARM AND MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
THRU. SFC FRONT AT 07Z LOOKS LIKE ITS RUNS NW-SE FROM KHIE-KPSM
AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NEWD THIS MORNING. FAIRLY ST6ABLE WITH
LITTLE FORCING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...AND ANY SHRA SHOULD MOVE
OFF TO THE N AND E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE CWA 09-12Z....FROM SW- NE.

TDS ALREADY RISING S OF THE WARM FRONT AND THEY WILL CREEP UP INTO
THE LOW 60S TODAY IN SOME AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT BREEZY SW
WINDS COULD KEEP THEM A LITTLE LOWER TODAY IN THE DOWNSLOPE.
ENOUGH FLOW TO PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT SEA BREEZE FROM
DEVELOPING...SO COASTAL AREAS FROM CASCO BAY S WILL WARM INTO HE
80S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MID COAST THE COOLEST...GENERALLY
STUCK IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. AFTER A CLOUDY START SHOULD SEE MORE
SUN THAN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL TONIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY...AS FAR AS RAIN
GOES...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS WANT TO POPS A FEW
SHRA OVER THE TERRAIN OF NH OVERNIGHT. GIVEN SOME INSTABILITY AND
TERRAIN CANNOT REALLY ARGUE WITH IT...BUT THERE IS REALLY A LACK
OF FORCING ABV THE BOUNDARY LYR. IT WILL BE A HUMID NIGHT WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. COULD SEE SOME COASTAL
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOP AS WELL.

ANY MORNING CLOUDS /FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY...GIVEN
PERSISTENT SW FLOW AND EXPECTING THE DAY TO START WITH SOME
SUN...AND SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY. PERHAPS A BIT WARMER IN THE MTNS,...AND JUST A BIT COOLERAT
THE COAST AS THE FLOW DOES WEAKEN A BIT...AND THERE WILL BETTER
TURNING ONSHORE.

THE DAY GETS MORE INTERESTING AS A FLATTENING 500MB WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE BEST
DYNAMICS SHOULD LIFT N OF THE CWA...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
HEIGHT FALLS AND ENOUGH INCREASE IN MID LVL WINDS FOR CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP WITH CAPES IN THE VICINITY OF 1000-1500 J/KG. COULD
SEE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THESE STORMS WHICH HAVE THE BEST
CHC OF FORMING OVER THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS AND CT VLY. ALSO OF CONCERN
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINERS...AS PWATS CLIMB TO
WELL ABV NORMAL AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT TURNS JUST ENOUGH FOR
BACK-BUILDING POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFFSHORE...THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION. A
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...THAT WILL WASHOUT AS IT SLIDES OFFSHORE AND ENCOUNTERS
THE UPPER RIDGE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY RETREAT
FURTHER OFFSHORE...OPENING THE DOOR FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD BY TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING.
SOME COASTAL FOG/STRATUS MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT KRKD...AND
WILL LKLY SEE SOME VLY FOG AT KLEB/KHIE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.


LONG TERM...

THU...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

SAT...AREAS OF MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT...BUT SUB-SCA...SW FLOW IS HELPING BUILD
SWELLTO AROUND 5 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS SHOULD HOLD BLO
SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO HOLD TO 5FT OR LESS INTO WED...BUT COULD
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY.


LONG TERM...

THU AND SAT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY. GUSTS
APPROACHING GALE FORCE ARE PSBL OUTSIDE THE BAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REST
OF THE WEEK...AND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 260730
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
330 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. WARM AND MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
THRU. SFC FRONT AT 07Z LOOKS LIKE ITS RUNS NW-SE FROM KHIE-KPSM
AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NEWD THIS MORNING. FAIRLY ST6ABLE WITH
LITTLE FORCING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...AND ANY SHRA SHOULD MOVE
OFF TO THE N AND E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE CWA 09-12Z....FROM SW- NE.

TDS ALREADY RISING S OF THE WARM FRONT AND THEY WILL CREEP UP INTO
THE LOW 60S TODAY IN SOME AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT BREEZY SW
WINDS COULD KEEP THEM A LITTLE LOWER TODAY IN THE DOWNSLOPE.
ENOUGH FLOW TO PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT SEA BREEZE FROM
DEVELOPING...SO COASTAL AREAS FROM CASCO BAY S WILL WARM INTO HE
80S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MID COAST THE COOLEST...GENERALLY
STUCK IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. AFTER A CLOUDY START SHOULD SEE MORE
SUN THAN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL TONIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY...AS FAR AS RAIN
GOES...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS WANT TO POPS A FEW
SHRA OVER THE TERRAIN OF NH OVERNIGHT. GIVEN SOME INSTABILITY AND
TERRAIN CANNOT REALLY ARGUE WITH IT...BUT THERE IS REALLY A LACK
OF FORCING ABV THE BOUNDARY LYR. IT WILL BE A HUMID NIGHT WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. COULD SEE SOME COASTAL
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOP AS WELL.

ANY MORNING CLOUDS /FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY...GIVEN
PERSISTENT SW FLOW AND EXPECTING THE DAY TO START WITH SOME
SUN...AND SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY. PERHAPS A BIT WARMER IN THE MTNS,...AND JUST A BIT COOLERAT
THE COAST AS THE FLOW DOES WEAKEN A BIT...AND THERE WILL BETTER
TURNING ONSHORE.

THE DAY GETS MORE INTERESTING AS A FLATTENING 500MB WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE BEST
DYNAMICS SHOULD LIFT N OF THE CWA...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
HEIGHT FALLS AND ENOUGH INCREASE IN MID LVL WINDS FOR CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP WITH CAPES IN THE VICINITY OF 1000-1500 J/KG. COULD
SEE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THESE STORMS WHICH HAVE THE BEST
CHC OF FORMING OVER THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS AND CT VLY. ALSO OF CONCERN
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINERS...AS PWATS CLIMB TO
WELL ABV NORMAL AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT TURNS JUST ENOUGH FOR
BACK-BUILDING POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFFSHORE...THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION. A
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...THAT WILL WASHOUT AS IT SLIDES OFFSHORE AND ENCOUNTERS
THE UPPER RIDGE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY RETREAT
FURTHER OFFSHORE...OPENING THE DOOR FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD BY TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING.
SOME COASTAL FOG/STRATUS MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT KRKD...AND
WILL LKLY SEE SOME VLY FOG AT KLEB/KHIE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.


LONG TERM...

THU...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

SAT...AREAS OF MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT...BUT SUB-SCA...SW FLOW IS HELPING BUILD
SWELLTO AROUND 5 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS SHOULD HOLD BLO
SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO HOLD TO 5FT OR LESS INTO WED...BUT COULD
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY.


LONG TERM...

THU AND SAT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY. GUSTS
APPROACHING GALE FORCE ARE PSBL OUTSIDE THE BAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REST
OF THE WEEK...AND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260623
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
223 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS START TO BUILD IN ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

230 AM UPDATE...

WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH PUSHING THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAIN. STILL COULD SEE A SPOT SHOWER ALONG THE
BORDER BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY IS NORTH. CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
OVERNIGHT. IN FACT MOST OF THE REGION AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST IS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

OTHERWISE HUMIDITY IS ON THE INCREASE AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S
AND SHOULD INCREASE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT. A FEW GUSTS
NEAR 25KTS STILL ACROSS THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY...A REAL SUMMER-LIKE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA.  EXPECT WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF CAPE ANN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA.  SO KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THERE.  NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD STARTS TO BREAK DOWN...SHIFTING TO THE EAST.  THIS
WILL ALLOW BETTER INSTABILITY TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER NYS COULD MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS WARM AND MUGGY.  IT/LL
BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE
SUMMER WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK. WILL SEE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THIS
WEEKEND AT LEAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THEN DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY
THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO TRY AND
PUSH S OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THESE FRONTS
MOVING INTO A NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER FLOW...WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN
AND WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE SOME RELIEF
TO THE EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE WED-FRI
TIMEFRAME WHEN BEST SHOT FOR DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MOVING NE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL U.S...WHERE THE RECORD FLOODING RAINS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. TIMING ISSUES COME INTO PLAY
THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH AND WHETHER IT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OR SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.

LEANED TOWARD AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND ECENS MEANS
WHICH WERE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE WEEKEND FRONT INTO THE REGION AS
ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE LONG WAVE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGING SHIFTS E DURING WED WITH SW WIND FLOW AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT IN PLACE. WILL SEE FIRST IN SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL SLOWLY PUSH SE TOWARD THE REGION. GOOD INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. MODEL CAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG /NAM
IS HIGHER/...K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND LI/S
FALLING BELOW ZERO. LOWEST PARAMETERS LOOK TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ALSO NOTING INCREASING PWATS...UP TO 1.8 TO 1.9
INCHES...SO COULD SEE SOME DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.

HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING...WITH HIGHEST FROM NE...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MASS INTO N CENTRAL CT WHERE BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONG OR
EVEN POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR. SPC HAS MARGINAL SHOT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A
COUPLE OF SPOTS APPROACHING 90 WELL INLAND.

MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS...DEVELOP DURING WED NIGHT AS DEWPTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED BUT STILL DECENT SO COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT LENDING
TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5 INCHES
BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY
CONVECTION. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG S COASTAL AREAS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. ALSO NOTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH DOES NOT
HELP IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY FROM NE MASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS INTO N CENTRAL CT WITH DEWPTS IN
THE 60S. ONE MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
MAINLY FROM COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO BE THE CASE WITH UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERNS TRYING TO BREAK DOWN. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
S COAST ON MONDAY WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER AIR
WORK INTO N MA DURING MON AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THIS TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...VFR. SOUTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE
CAPE OVERNIGHT.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS FOR INCREASING SEAS AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  WHILE THE WINDS MAY ONLY REACH CRITERIA
BRIEFLY...SEAS WILL CLIMB TO 5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND SMALL CRAFTS INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT.
REDUCED VSBYS AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DOWN TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE OR LESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING
AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE
OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 260623
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
223 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS START TO BUILD IN ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

230 AM UPDATE...

WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH PUSHING THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAIN. STILL COULD SEE A SPOT SHOWER ALONG THE
BORDER BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY IS NORTH. CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
OVERNIGHT. IN FACT MOST OF THE REGION AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST IS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

OTHERWISE HUMIDITY IS ON THE INCREASE AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S
AND SHOULD INCREASE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT. A FEW GUSTS
NEAR 25KTS STILL ACROSS THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY...A REAL SUMMER-LIKE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA.  EXPECT WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF CAPE ANN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA.  SO KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THERE.  NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD STARTS TO BREAK DOWN...SHIFTING TO THE EAST.  THIS
WILL ALLOW BETTER INSTABILITY TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER NYS COULD MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS WARM AND MUGGY.  IT/LL
BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE
SUMMER WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK. WILL SEE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THIS
WEEKEND AT LEAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THEN DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY
THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO TRY AND
PUSH S OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THESE FRONTS
MOVING INTO A NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER FLOW...WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN
AND WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE SOME RELIEF
TO THE EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE WED-FRI
TIMEFRAME WHEN BEST SHOT FOR DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MOVING NE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL U.S...WHERE THE RECORD FLOODING RAINS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. TIMING ISSUES COME INTO PLAY
THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH AND WHETHER IT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OR SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.

LEANED TOWARD AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND ECENS MEANS
WHICH WERE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE WEEKEND FRONT INTO THE REGION AS
ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE LONG WAVE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGING SHIFTS E DURING WED WITH SW WIND FLOW AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT IN PLACE. WILL SEE FIRST IN SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL SLOWLY PUSH SE TOWARD THE REGION. GOOD INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. MODEL CAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG /NAM
IS HIGHER/...K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND LI/S
FALLING BELOW ZERO. LOWEST PARAMETERS LOOK TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ALSO NOTING INCREASING PWATS...UP TO 1.8 TO 1.9
INCHES...SO COULD SEE SOME DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.

HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING...WITH HIGHEST FROM NE...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MASS INTO N CENTRAL CT WHERE BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONG OR
EVEN POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR. SPC HAS MARGINAL SHOT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A
COUPLE OF SPOTS APPROACHING 90 WELL INLAND.

MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS...DEVELOP DURING WED NIGHT AS DEWPTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED BUT STILL DECENT SO COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT LENDING
TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5 INCHES
BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY
CONVECTION. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG S COASTAL AREAS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. ALSO NOTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH DOES NOT
HELP IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY FROM NE MASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS INTO N CENTRAL CT WITH DEWPTS IN
THE 60S. ONE MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
MAINLY FROM COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO BE THE CASE WITH UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERNS TRYING TO BREAK DOWN. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
S COAST ON MONDAY WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER AIR
WORK INTO N MA DURING MON AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THIS TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...VFR. SOUTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE
CAPE OVERNIGHT.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS FOR INCREASING SEAS AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  WHILE THE WINDS MAY ONLY REACH CRITERIA
BRIEFLY...SEAS WILL CLIMB TO 5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND SMALL CRAFTS INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT.
REDUCED VSBYS AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DOWN TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE OR LESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING
AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE
OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 260419
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1219 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PROVIDING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE
WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1215 AM...QUICK UPDATE TO BETTER DEFINE WHERE IT IS RAINING AND
WHERE IT IS NOT, AS WELL AS WHO WILL HAVE MERELY SPRINKLES /SRN
NH AND SW ME/ AND WHO WILL GET MEASURABLE PRECIP /MTNS...UP TO A
QUARTER INCH ALONG THE INTL BORDER/. ALSO...BASED ON UPSTREAM
DROPPED POPS OFF QUICKER AFTER ABOUT 07-09Z.

PREVIOUSLY...SPRAWLING BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST OF
THE U.S. CONTINUES TO BRING W/SW WINDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS
HELPED TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S DESPITE SOME CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION.
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS NH AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MAINE. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NE AND
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT AS LI VALUES PEAK. CLOUD COVER
WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE (50S AND 60S) AND
WE MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WE WILL SEE A SIMILAR SCENARIO TOMORROW TEMPERATURE WISE AS TODAY
WITH EVEN LESS CLOUD COVER AS WE WILL BE SANS WARM FRONT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN A LITTLE MORE TOMORROW AS WELL
TRANSLATING INTO WARMER READINGS AT THE SURFACE. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SE AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NW WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
DESPITE THIS RH VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE 30%. CLOUD COVER
INCREASES ONCE AGAIN FROM SW TO NE AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN CANADA LIFTS A WARM FRONT INTO THE REGION.
WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS DEVELOP IN NH AND MAINE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IN A NUTSHELL...IT LOOKS LIKE A
SUMMERY PATTERN WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH
HUMIDITY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH WILL
APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE BETTER FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES ON THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL DETERMINE HOW
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GETS. THE LATEST ECMWF
MOVES IT THROUGH PRETTY QUICKLY...AND IF THAT SOLUTION
VERIFIES...COVERAGE MAY BE MINIMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY WITH SWLY RETURN FLOW SETTING US
UP FOR ANOTHER POTENTIALLY HOT DAY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE SAT AND SUN WITH THE ATTENDANT THREAT FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
CAPITAL DISTRICT MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS. GUSTY
SSW WINDS IN THE 20 KT RANGE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY.


LONG TERM...WED - THU...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. VFR
EXPECTED FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SWELL OF 6-7 FT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH WINDS
GUSTING GENERALLY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. THIS FALLS SHORT OF SCA
CRITERIA.


LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WED AND
THURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RH VALUES INCREASE TO 40-50 PERCENT THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. WILL STILL SEE SOME
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO NEAR 20-25 MPH ON TUESDAY. SO ALTHOUGH
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA...FIRE DANGER MAY STILL BE ENHANCED
DEPENDING ON LOCAL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 260419
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1219 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PROVIDING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE
WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1215 AM...QUICK UPDATE TO BETTER DEFINE WHERE IT IS RAINING AND
WHERE IT IS NOT, AS WELL AS WHO WILL HAVE MERELY SPRINKLES /SRN
NH AND SW ME/ AND WHO WILL GET MEASURABLE PRECIP /MTNS...UP TO A
QUARTER INCH ALONG THE INTL BORDER/. ALSO...BASED ON UPSTREAM
DROPPED POPS OFF QUICKER AFTER ABOUT 07-09Z.

PREVIOUSLY...SPRAWLING BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST OF
THE U.S. CONTINUES TO BRING W/SW WINDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS
HELPED TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S DESPITE SOME CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION.
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS NH AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MAINE. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NE AND
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT AS LI VALUES PEAK. CLOUD COVER
WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE (50S AND 60S) AND
WE MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WE WILL SEE A SIMILAR SCENARIO TOMORROW TEMPERATURE WISE AS TODAY
WITH EVEN LESS CLOUD COVER AS WE WILL BE SANS WARM FRONT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN A LITTLE MORE TOMORROW AS WELL
TRANSLATING INTO WARMER READINGS AT THE SURFACE. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SE AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NW WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
DESPITE THIS RH VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE 30%. CLOUD COVER
INCREASES ONCE AGAIN FROM SW TO NE AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN CANADA LIFTS A WARM FRONT INTO THE REGION.
WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS DEVELOP IN NH AND MAINE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IN A NUTSHELL...IT LOOKS LIKE A
SUMMERY PATTERN WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH
HUMIDITY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH WILL
APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE BETTER FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES ON THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL DETERMINE HOW
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GETS. THE LATEST ECMWF
MOVES IT THROUGH PRETTY QUICKLY...AND IF THAT SOLUTION
VERIFIES...COVERAGE MAY BE MINIMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY WITH SWLY RETURN FLOW SETTING US
UP FOR ANOTHER POTENTIALLY HOT DAY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE SAT AND SUN WITH THE ATTENDANT THREAT FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
CAPITAL DISTRICT MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS. GUSTY
SSW WINDS IN THE 20 KT RANGE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY.


LONG TERM...WED - THU...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. VFR
EXPECTED FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SWELL OF 6-7 FT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH WINDS
GUSTING GENERALLY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. THIS FALLS SHORT OF SCA
CRITERIA.


LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WED AND
THURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RH VALUES INCREASE TO 40-50 PERCENT THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. WILL STILL SEE SOME
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO NEAR 20-25 MPH ON TUESDAY. SO ALTHOUGH
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA...FIRE DANGER MAY STILL BE ENHANCED
DEPENDING ON LOCAL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 260419
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1219 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PROVIDING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE
WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1215 AM...QUICK UPDATE TO BETTER DEFINE WHERE IT IS RAINING AND
WHERE IT IS NOT, AS WELL AS WHO WILL HAVE MERELY SPRINKLES /SRN
NH AND SW ME/ AND WHO WILL GET MEASURABLE PRECIP /MTNS...UP TO A
QUARTER INCH ALONG THE INTL BORDER/. ALSO...BASED ON UPSTREAM
DROPPED POPS OFF QUICKER AFTER ABOUT 07-09Z.

PREVIOUSLY...SPRAWLING BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST OF
THE U.S. CONTINUES TO BRING W/SW WINDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS
HELPED TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S DESPITE SOME CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION.
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS NH AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MAINE. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NE AND
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT AS LI VALUES PEAK. CLOUD COVER
WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE (50S AND 60S) AND
WE MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WE WILL SEE A SIMILAR SCENARIO TOMORROW TEMPERATURE WISE AS TODAY
WITH EVEN LESS CLOUD COVER AS WE WILL BE SANS WARM FRONT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN A LITTLE MORE TOMORROW AS WELL
TRANSLATING INTO WARMER READINGS AT THE SURFACE. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SE AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NW WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
DESPITE THIS RH VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE 30%. CLOUD COVER
INCREASES ONCE AGAIN FROM SW TO NE AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN CANADA LIFTS A WARM FRONT INTO THE REGION.
WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS DEVELOP IN NH AND MAINE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IN A NUTSHELL...IT LOOKS LIKE A
SUMMERY PATTERN WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH
HUMIDITY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH WILL
APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE BETTER FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES ON THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL DETERMINE HOW
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GETS. THE LATEST ECMWF
MOVES IT THROUGH PRETTY QUICKLY...AND IF THAT SOLUTION
VERIFIES...COVERAGE MAY BE MINIMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY WITH SWLY RETURN FLOW SETTING US
UP FOR ANOTHER POTENTIALLY HOT DAY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE SAT AND SUN WITH THE ATTENDANT THREAT FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
CAPITAL DISTRICT MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS. GUSTY
SSW WINDS IN THE 20 KT RANGE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY.


LONG TERM...WED - THU...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. VFR
EXPECTED FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SWELL OF 6-7 FT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH WINDS
GUSTING GENERALLY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. THIS FALLS SHORT OF SCA
CRITERIA.


LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WED AND
THURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RH VALUES INCREASE TO 40-50 PERCENT THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. WILL STILL SEE SOME
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO NEAR 20-25 MPH ON TUESDAY. SO ALTHOUGH
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA...FIRE DANGER MAY STILL BE ENHANCED
DEPENDING ON LOCAL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 260419
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1219 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PROVIDING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE
WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1215 AM...QUICK UPDATE TO BETTER DEFINE WHERE IT IS RAINING AND
WHERE IT IS NOT, AS WELL AS WHO WILL HAVE MERELY SPRINKLES /SRN
NH AND SW ME/ AND WHO WILL GET MEASURABLE PRECIP /MTNS...UP TO A
QUARTER INCH ALONG THE INTL BORDER/. ALSO...BASED ON UPSTREAM
DROPPED POPS OFF QUICKER AFTER ABOUT 07-09Z.

PREVIOUSLY...SPRAWLING BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST OF
THE U.S. CONTINUES TO BRING W/SW WINDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS
HELPED TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S DESPITE SOME CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION.
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS NH AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MAINE. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NE AND
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT AS LI VALUES PEAK. CLOUD COVER
WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE (50S AND 60S) AND
WE MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WE WILL SEE A SIMILAR SCENARIO TOMORROW TEMPERATURE WISE AS TODAY
WITH EVEN LESS CLOUD COVER AS WE WILL BE SANS WARM FRONT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN A LITTLE MORE TOMORROW AS WELL
TRANSLATING INTO WARMER READINGS AT THE SURFACE. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SE AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NW WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
DESPITE THIS RH VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE 30%. CLOUD COVER
INCREASES ONCE AGAIN FROM SW TO NE AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN CANADA LIFTS A WARM FRONT INTO THE REGION.
WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS DEVELOP IN NH AND MAINE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IN A NUTSHELL...IT LOOKS LIKE A
SUMMERY PATTERN WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH
HUMIDITY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH WILL
APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE BETTER FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES ON THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL DETERMINE HOW
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GETS. THE LATEST ECMWF
MOVES IT THROUGH PRETTY QUICKLY...AND IF THAT SOLUTION
VERIFIES...COVERAGE MAY BE MINIMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY WITH SWLY RETURN FLOW SETTING US
UP FOR ANOTHER POTENTIALLY HOT DAY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE SAT AND SUN WITH THE ATTENDANT THREAT FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
CAPITAL DISTRICT MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS. GUSTY
SSW WINDS IN THE 20 KT RANGE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY.


LONG TERM...WED - THU...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. VFR
EXPECTED FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SWELL OF 6-7 FT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH WINDS
GUSTING GENERALLY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. THIS FALLS SHORT OF SCA
CRITERIA.


LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WED AND
THURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RH VALUES INCREASE TO 40-50 PERCENT THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. WILL STILL SEE SOME
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO NEAR 20-25 MPH ON TUESDAY. SO ALTHOUGH
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA...FIRE DANGER MAY STILL BE ENHANCED
DEPENDING ON LOCAL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 260419
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1219 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PROVIDING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE
WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1215 AM...QUICK UPDATE TO BETTER DEFINE WHERE IT IS RAINING AND
WHERE IT IS NOT, AS WELL AS WHO WILL HAVE MERELY SPRINKLES /SRN
NH AND SW ME/ AND WHO WILL GET MEASURABLE PRECIP /MTNS...UP TO A
QUARTER INCH ALONG THE INTL BORDER/. ALSO...BASED ON UPSTREAM
DROPPED POPS OFF QUICKER AFTER ABOUT 07-09Z.

PREVIOUSLY...SPRAWLING BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST OF
THE U.S. CONTINUES TO BRING W/SW WINDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS
HELPED TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S DESPITE SOME CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION.
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS NH AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MAINE. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NE AND
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT AS LI VALUES PEAK. CLOUD COVER
WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE (50S AND 60S) AND
WE MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WE WILL SEE A SIMILAR SCENARIO TOMORROW TEMPERATURE WISE AS TODAY
WITH EVEN LESS CLOUD COVER AS WE WILL BE SANS WARM FRONT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN A LITTLE MORE TOMORROW AS WELL
TRANSLATING INTO WARMER READINGS AT THE SURFACE. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SE AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NW WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
DESPITE THIS RH VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE 30%. CLOUD COVER
INCREASES ONCE AGAIN FROM SW TO NE AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN CANADA LIFTS A WARM FRONT INTO THE REGION.
WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS DEVELOP IN NH AND MAINE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IN A NUTSHELL...IT LOOKS LIKE A
SUMMERY PATTERN WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH
HUMIDITY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH WILL
APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE BETTER FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES ON THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL DETERMINE HOW
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GETS. THE LATEST ECMWF
MOVES IT THROUGH PRETTY QUICKLY...AND IF THAT SOLUTION
VERIFIES...COVERAGE MAY BE MINIMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY WITH SWLY RETURN FLOW SETTING US
UP FOR ANOTHER POTENTIALLY HOT DAY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE SAT AND SUN WITH THE ATTENDANT THREAT FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
CAPITAL DISTRICT MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS. GUSTY
SSW WINDS IN THE 20 KT RANGE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY.


LONG TERM...WED - THU...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. VFR
EXPECTED FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SWELL OF 6-7 FT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH WINDS
GUSTING GENERALLY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. THIS FALLS SHORT OF SCA
CRITERIA.


LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WED AND
THURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RH VALUES INCREASE TO 40-50 PERCENT THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. WILL STILL SEE SOME
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO NEAR 20-25 MPH ON TUESDAY. SO ALTHOUGH
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA...FIRE DANGER MAY STILL BE ENHANCED
DEPENDING ON LOCAL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 260419
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1219 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PROVIDING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE
WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1215 AM...QUICK UPDATE TO BETTER DEFINE WHERE IT IS RAINING AND
WHERE IT IS NOT, AS WELL AS WHO WILL HAVE MERELY SPRINKLES /SRN
NH AND SW ME/ AND WHO WILL GET MEASURABLE PRECIP /MTNS...UP TO A
QUARTER INCH ALONG THE INTL BORDER/. ALSO...BASED ON UPSTREAM
DROPPED POPS OFF QUICKER AFTER ABOUT 07-09Z.

PREVIOUSLY...SPRAWLING BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST OF
THE U.S. CONTINUES TO BRING W/SW WINDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS
HELPED TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S DESPITE SOME CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION.
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS NH AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MAINE. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NE AND
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT AS LI VALUES PEAK. CLOUD COVER
WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE (50S AND 60S) AND
WE MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WE WILL SEE A SIMILAR SCENARIO TOMORROW TEMPERATURE WISE AS TODAY
WITH EVEN LESS CLOUD COVER AS WE WILL BE SANS WARM FRONT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN A LITTLE MORE TOMORROW AS WELL
TRANSLATING INTO WARMER READINGS AT THE SURFACE. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SE AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NW WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
DESPITE THIS RH VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE 30%. CLOUD COVER
INCREASES ONCE AGAIN FROM SW TO NE AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN CANADA LIFTS A WARM FRONT INTO THE REGION.
WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS DEVELOP IN NH AND MAINE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IN A NUTSHELL...IT LOOKS LIKE A
SUMMERY PATTERN WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH
HUMIDITY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH WILL
APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE BETTER FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES ON THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL DETERMINE HOW
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GETS. THE LATEST ECMWF
MOVES IT THROUGH PRETTY QUICKLY...AND IF THAT SOLUTION
VERIFIES...COVERAGE MAY BE MINIMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY WITH SWLY RETURN FLOW SETTING US
UP FOR ANOTHER POTENTIALLY HOT DAY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE SAT AND SUN WITH THE ATTENDANT THREAT FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
CAPITAL DISTRICT MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS. GUSTY
SSW WINDS IN THE 20 KT RANGE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY.


LONG TERM...WED - THU...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. VFR
EXPECTED FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SWELL OF 6-7 FT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH WINDS
GUSTING GENERALLY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. THIS FALLS SHORT OF SCA
CRITERIA.


LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WED AND
THURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RH VALUES INCREASE TO 40-50 PERCENT THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. WILL STILL SEE SOME
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO NEAR 20-25 MPH ON TUESDAY. SO ALTHOUGH
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA...FIRE DANGER MAY STILL BE ENHANCED
DEPENDING ON LOCAL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260159
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS START TO BUILD IN ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

1000 PM UPDATE...

WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER A FEW
ECHOES ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT IS STILL LINGERINGNEAR
THE REGION. TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS STILL PRETTY HIGH SO EXPECT
JUST CLOUDS/OR VIRGA. COULD SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS ESSEX AND
MIDDLESEX COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES DROPPING
OVERNIGHT. SO HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER AS DEWPTS INCREASE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT WHICH IN TURN
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE MA/NH
BORDER LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  HOWEVER...MOST
OF THE ENERGY AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS REMAINS FARTHER NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...A REAL SUMMER-LIKE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA.  EXPECT WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF CAPE ANN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA.  SO KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THERE.  NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD STARTS TO BREAK DOWN...SHIFTING TO THE EAST.  THIS
WILL ALLOW BETTER INSTABILITY TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER NYS COULD MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS WARM AND MUGGY.  IT/LL
BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE
SUMMER WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK. WILL SEE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THIS
WEEKEND AT LEAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THEN DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY
THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO TRY AND
PUSH S OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THESE FRONTS
MOVING INTO A NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER FLOW...WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN
AND WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE SOME RELIEF
TO THE EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE WED-FRI
TIMEFRAME WHEN BEST SHOT FOR DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MOVING NE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL U.S...WHERE THE RECORD FLOODING RAINS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. TIMING ISSUES COME INTO PLAY
THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH AND WHETHER IT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OR SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.

LEANED TOWARD AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND ECENS MEANS
WHICH WERE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE WEEKEND FRONT INTO THE REGION AS
ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE LONG WAVE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGING SHIFTS E DURING WED WITH SW WIND FLOW AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT IN PLACE. WILL SEE FIRST IN SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL SLOWLY PUSH SE TOWARD THE REGION. GOOD INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. MODEL CAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG /NAM
IS HIGHER/...K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND LI/S
FALLING BELOW ZERO. LOWEST PARAMETERS LOOK TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ALSO NOTING INCREASING PWATS...UP TO 1.8 TO 1.9
INCHES...SO COULD SEE SOME DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.

HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING...WITH HIGHEST FROM NE...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MASS INTO N CENTRAL CT WHERE BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONG OR
EVEN POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR. SPC HAS MARGINAL SHOT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A
COUPLE OF SPOTS APPROACHING 90 WELL INLAND.

MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS...DEVELOP DURING WED NIGHT AS DEWPTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED BUT STILL DECENT SO COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT LENDING
TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5 INCHES
BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY
CONVECTION. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG S COASTAL AREAS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. ALSO NOTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH DOES NOT
HELP IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY FROM NE MASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS INTO N CENTRAL CT WITH DEWPTS IN
THE 60S. ONE MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
MAINLY FROM COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO BE THE CASE WITH UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERNS TRYING TO BREAK DOWN. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
S COAST ON MONDAY WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER AIR
WORK INTO N MA DURING MON AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THIS TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS LATE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE 40-45 KT AT 1000-2000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE...HIGHEST ALONG THE S COAST. NOT QUITE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO BE INSERTED INTO
TERMINALS...BUT SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS.

TUESDAY...VFR. COULD STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG NEAR
THE S COAST...MAINLY EARLY. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
NW CT AND WESTERN MA...INCLUDING BDL/BAF AND IN THE BERKSHIRES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED
NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS
OVERNIGHT. CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS FOR INCREASING SEAS AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  WHILE THE WINDS MAY ONLY REACH CRITERIA
BRIEFLY...SEAS WILL CLIMB TO 5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND SMALL CRAFTS INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT.
REDUCED VSBYS AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DOWN TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE OR LESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING
AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE
OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 260159
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS START TO BUILD IN ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

1000 PM UPDATE...

WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER A FEW
ECHOES ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT IS STILL LINGERINGNEAR
THE REGION. TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS STILL PRETTY HIGH SO EXPECT
JUST CLOUDS/OR VIRGA. COULD SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS ESSEX AND
MIDDLESEX COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES DROPPING
OVERNIGHT. SO HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER AS DEWPTS INCREASE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT WHICH IN TURN
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE MA/NH
BORDER LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  HOWEVER...MOST
OF THE ENERGY AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS REMAINS FARTHER NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...A REAL SUMMER-LIKE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA.  EXPECT WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF CAPE ANN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA.  SO KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THERE.  NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD STARTS TO BREAK DOWN...SHIFTING TO THE EAST.  THIS
WILL ALLOW BETTER INSTABILITY TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER NYS COULD MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS WARM AND MUGGY.  IT/LL
BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE
SUMMER WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK. WILL SEE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THIS
WEEKEND AT LEAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THEN DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY
THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO TRY AND
PUSH S OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THESE FRONTS
MOVING INTO A NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER FLOW...WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN
AND WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE SOME RELIEF
TO THE EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE WED-FRI
TIMEFRAME WHEN BEST SHOT FOR DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MOVING NE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL U.S...WHERE THE RECORD FLOODING RAINS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. TIMING ISSUES COME INTO PLAY
THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH AND WHETHER IT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OR SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.

LEANED TOWARD AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND ECENS MEANS
WHICH WERE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE WEEKEND FRONT INTO THE REGION AS
ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE LONG WAVE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGING SHIFTS E DURING WED WITH SW WIND FLOW AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT IN PLACE. WILL SEE FIRST IN SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL SLOWLY PUSH SE TOWARD THE REGION. GOOD INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. MODEL CAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG /NAM
IS HIGHER/...K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND LI/S
FALLING BELOW ZERO. LOWEST PARAMETERS LOOK TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ALSO NOTING INCREASING PWATS...UP TO 1.8 TO 1.9
INCHES...SO COULD SEE SOME DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.

HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING...WITH HIGHEST FROM NE...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MASS INTO N CENTRAL CT WHERE BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONG OR
EVEN POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR. SPC HAS MARGINAL SHOT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A
COUPLE OF SPOTS APPROACHING 90 WELL INLAND.

MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS...DEVELOP DURING WED NIGHT AS DEWPTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED BUT STILL DECENT SO COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT LENDING
TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5 INCHES
BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY
CONVECTION. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG S COASTAL AREAS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. ALSO NOTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH DOES NOT
HELP IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY FROM NE MASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS INTO N CENTRAL CT WITH DEWPTS IN
THE 60S. ONE MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
MAINLY FROM COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO BE THE CASE WITH UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERNS TRYING TO BREAK DOWN. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
S COAST ON MONDAY WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER AIR
WORK INTO N MA DURING MON AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THIS TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS LATE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE 40-45 KT AT 1000-2000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE...HIGHEST ALONG THE S COAST. NOT QUITE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO BE INSERTED INTO
TERMINALS...BUT SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS.

TUESDAY...VFR. COULD STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG NEAR
THE S COAST...MAINLY EARLY. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
NW CT AND WESTERN MA...INCLUDING BDL/BAF AND IN THE BERKSHIRES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED
NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS
OVERNIGHT. CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS FOR INCREASING SEAS AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  WHILE THE WINDS MAY ONLY REACH CRITERIA
BRIEFLY...SEAS WILL CLIMB TO 5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND SMALL CRAFTS INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT.
REDUCED VSBYS AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DOWN TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE OR LESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING
AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE
OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 252354
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
754 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PROVIDING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE
WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO
NORTHWEST ZONES AND THIS AREA WILL EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED CURRENT POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
EXPECT HIGHEST QPF IN NORTHERN ZONES WERE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH
WILL FALL OVERNIGHT. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH ONLY LOOKING FOR SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND LIGHT AMOUNTS. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS DEPARTING EASTERN
ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK. WILL SEE A VERY MILD NIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO
ADJUST OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A BIT WHICH SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S
NORTH AND EAST AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SPRAWLING BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST OF THE U.S.
CONTINUES TO BRING W/SW WINDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS HELPED
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT
SHOWERS WERE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS NH AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MAINE. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NE AND
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT AS LI VALUES PEAK. CLOUD COVER
WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE (50S AND 60S) AND
WE MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL SEE A SIMILAR SCENARIO TOMORROW TEMPERATURE WISE AS TODAY
WITH EVEN LESS CLOUD COVER AS WE WILL BE SANS WARM FRONT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN A LITTLE MORE TOMORROW AS WELL
TRANSLATING INTO WARMER READINGS AT THE SURFACE. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SE AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NW WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
DESPITE THIS RH VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE 30%. CLOUD COVER
INCREASES ONCE AGAIN FROM SW TO NE AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN CANADA LIFTS A WARM FRONT INTO THE REGION.
WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS DEVELOP IN NH AND MAINE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IN A NUTSHELL...IT LOOKS LIKE A
SUMMERY PATTERN WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH
HUMIDITY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH WILL
APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE BETTER FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES ON THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL DETERMINE HOW
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GETS. THE LATEST ECMWF
MOVES IT THROUGH PRETTY QUICKLY...AND IF THAT SOLUTION
VERIFIES...COVERAGE MAY BE MINIMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY WITH SWLY RETURN FLOW SETTING US
UP FOR ANOTHER POTENTIALLY HOT DAY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE SAT AND SUN WITH THE ATTENDANT THREAT FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
CAPITAL DISTRICT MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS. GUSTY
SSW WINDS IN THE 20 KT RANGE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY.


LONG TERM...WED - THU...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. VFR
EXPECTED FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SWELL OF 6-7 FT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH WINDS
GUSTING GENERALLY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. THIS FALLS SHORT OF SCA
CRITERIA.


LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WED AND
THURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RH VALUES INCREASE TO 40-50 PERCENT THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. WILL STILL SEE SOME
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO NEAR 20-25 MPH ON TUESDAY. SO ALTHOUGH
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA...FIRE DANGER MAY STILL BE ENHANCED
DEPENDING ON LOCAL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 252354
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
754 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PROVIDING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE
WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO
NORTHWEST ZONES AND THIS AREA WILL EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED CURRENT POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
EXPECT HIGHEST QPF IN NORTHERN ZONES WERE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH
WILL FALL OVERNIGHT. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH ONLY LOOKING FOR SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND LIGHT AMOUNTS. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS DEPARTING EASTERN
ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK. WILL SEE A VERY MILD NIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO
ADJUST OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A BIT WHICH SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S
NORTH AND EAST AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SPRAWLING BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST OF THE U.S.
CONTINUES TO BRING W/SW WINDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS HELPED
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT
SHOWERS WERE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS NH AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MAINE. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NE AND
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT AS LI VALUES PEAK. CLOUD COVER
WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE (50S AND 60S) AND
WE MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL SEE A SIMILAR SCENARIO TOMORROW TEMPERATURE WISE AS TODAY
WITH EVEN LESS CLOUD COVER AS WE WILL BE SANS WARM FRONT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN A LITTLE MORE TOMORROW AS WELL
TRANSLATING INTO WARMER READINGS AT THE SURFACE. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SE AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NW WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
DESPITE THIS RH VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE 30%. CLOUD COVER
INCREASES ONCE AGAIN FROM SW TO NE AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN CANADA LIFTS A WARM FRONT INTO THE REGION.
WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS DEVELOP IN NH AND MAINE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IN A NUTSHELL...IT LOOKS LIKE A
SUMMERY PATTERN WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH
HUMIDITY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH WILL
APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE BETTER FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES ON THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL DETERMINE HOW
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GETS. THE LATEST ECMWF
MOVES IT THROUGH PRETTY QUICKLY...AND IF THAT SOLUTION
VERIFIES...COVERAGE MAY BE MINIMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY WITH SWLY RETURN FLOW SETTING US
UP FOR ANOTHER POTENTIALLY HOT DAY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE SAT AND SUN WITH THE ATTENDANT THREAT FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
CAPITAL DISTRICT MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS. GUSTY
SSW WINDS IN THE 20 KT RANGE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY.


LONG TERM...WED - THU...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. VFR
EXPECTED FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SWELL OF 6-7 FT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH WINDS
GUSTING GENERALLY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. THIS FALLS SHORT OF SCA
CRITERIA.


LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WED AND
THURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RH VALUES INCREASE TO 40-50 PERCENT THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. WILL STILL SEE SOME
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO NEAR 20-25 MPH ON TUESDAY. SO ALTHOUGH
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA...FIRE DANGER MAY STILL BE ENHANCED
DEPENDING ON LOCAL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 252354
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
754 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PROVIDING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE
WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO
NORTHWEST ZONES AND THIS AREA WILL EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED CURRENT POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
EXPECT HIGHEST QPF IN NORTHERN ZONES WERE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH
WILL FALL OVERNIGHT. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH ONLY LOOKING FOR SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND LIGHT AMOUNTS. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS DEPARTING EASTERN
ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK. WILL SEE A VERY MILD NIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO
ADJUST OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A BIT WHICH SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S
NORTH AND EAST AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SPRAWLING BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST OF THE U.S.
CONTINUES TO BRING W/SW WINDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS HELPED
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT
SHOWERS WERE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS NH AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MAINE. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NE AND
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT AS LI VALUES PEAK. CLOUD COVER
WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE (50S AND 60S) AND
WE MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL SEE A SIMILAR SCENARIO TOMORROW TEMPERATURE WISE AS TODAY
WITH EVEN LESS CLOUD COVER AS WE WILL BE SANS WARM FRONT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN A LITTLE MORE TOMORROW AS WELL
TRANSLATING INTO WARMER READINGS AT THE SURFACE. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SE AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NW WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
DESPITE THIS RH VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE 30%. CLOUD COVER
INCREASES ONCE AGAIN FROM SW TO NE AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN CANADA LIFTS A WARM FRONT INTO THE REGION.
WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS DEVELOP IN NH AND MAINE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IN A NUTSHELL...IT LOOKS LIKE A
SUMMERY PATTERN WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH
HUMIDITY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH WILL
APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE BETTER FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES ON THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL DETERMINE HOW
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GETS. THE LATEST ECMWF
MOVES IT THROUGH PRETTY QUICKLY...AND IF THAT SOLUTION
VERIFIES...COVERAGE MAY BE MINIMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY WITH SWLY RETURN FLOW SETTING US
UP FOR ANOTHER POTENTIALLY HOT DAY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE SAT AND SUN WITH THE ATTENDANT THREAT FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
CAPITAL DISTRICT MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS. GUSTY
SSW WINDS IN THE 20 KT RANGE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY.


LONG TERM...WED - THU...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. VFR
EXPECTED FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SWELL OF 6-7 FT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH WINDS
GUSTING GENERALLY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. THIS FALLS SHORT OF SCA
CRITERIA.


LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WED AND
THURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RH VALUES INCREASE TO 40-50 PERCENT THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. WILL STILL SEE SOME
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO NEAR 20-25 MPH ON TUESDAY. SO ALTHOUGH
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA...FIRE DANGER MAY STILL BE ENHANCED
DEPENDING ON LOCAL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KBOX 252330
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
730 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS START TO BUILD IN ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

720 PM UPDATE...
NOTING AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHIFTING E-SE OUT OF NY STATE
WHILE ANOTHER AREA MOVES ACROSS ON LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. A
BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W
MA OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
ON THE S END OF AN AREA MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND N VT/NH.
WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION...THE SMALL SHOWERS LOOK
TO DISSIPATE...BUT COULD SEE A FEW MORE TRY TO SNEAK INTO N MA
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NE WITH THE WARM FRONT.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER AS DEWPTS INCREASE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT WHICH IN TURN
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE MA/NH
BORDER LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  HOWEVER...MOST
OF THE ENERGY AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS REMAINS FARTHER NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...A REAL SUMMER-LIKE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA.  EXPECT WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF CAPE ANN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA.  SO KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THERE.  NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD STARTS TO BREAK DOWN...SHIFTING TO THE EAST.  THIS
WILL ALLOW BETTER INSTABILITY TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER NYS COULD MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS WARM AND MUGGY.  IT/LL
BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE
SUMMER WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK. WILL SEE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THIS
WEEKEND AT LEAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THEN DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY
THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO TRY AND
PUSH S OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THESE FRONTS
MOVING INTO A NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER FLOW...WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN
AND WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE SOME RELIEF
TO THE EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE WED-FRI
TIMEFRAME WHEN BEST SHOT FOR DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MOVING NE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL U.S...WHERE THE RECORD FLOODING RAINS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. TIMING ISSUES COME INTO PLAY
THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH AND WHETHER IT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OR SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.

LEANED TOWARD AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND ECENS MEANS
WHICH WERE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE WEEKEND FRONT INTO THE REGION AS
ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE LONG WAVE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGING SHIFTS E DURING WED WITH SW WIND FLOW AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT IN PLACE. WILL SEE FIRST IN SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL SLOWLY PUSH SE TOWARD THE REGION. GOOD INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. MODEL CAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG /NAM
IS HIGHER/...K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND LI/S
FALLING BELOW ZERO. LOWEST PARAMETERS LOOK TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ALSO NOTING INCREASING PWATS...UP TO 1.8 TO 1.9
INCHES...SO COULD SEE SOME DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.

HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING...WITH HIGHEST FROM NE...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MASS INTO N CENTRAL CT WHERE BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONG OR
EVEN POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR. SPC HAS MARGINAL SHOT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A
COUPLE OF SPOTS APPROACHING 90 WELL INLAND.

MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS...DEVELOP DURING WED NIGHT AS DEWPTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED BUT STILL DECENT SO COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT LENDING
TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5 INCHES
BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY
CONVECTION. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG S COASTAL AREAS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. ALSO NOTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH DOES NOT
HELP IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY FROM NE MASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS INTO N CENTRAL CT WITH DEWPTS IN
THE 60S. ONE MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
MAINLY FROM COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO BE THE CASE WITH UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERNS TRYING TO BREAK DOWN. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
S COAST ON MONDAY WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER AIR
WORK INTO N MA DURING MON AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THIS TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS LATE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE 40-45 KT AT 1000-2000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE...HIGHEST ALONG THE S COAST. NOT QUITE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO BE INSERTED INTO
TERMINALS...BUT SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS.

TUESDAY...VFR. COULD STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG NEAR
THE S COAST...MAINLY EARLY. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
NW CT AND WESTERN MA...INCLUDING BDL/BAF AND IN THE BERKSHIRES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED
NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS
OVERNIGHT. CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS FOR INCREASING SEAS AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  WHILE THE WINDS MAY ONLY REACH CRITERIA
BRIEFLY...SEAS WILL CLIMB TO 5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND SMALL CRAFTS INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT.
REDUCED VSBYS AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DOWN TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE OR LESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING
AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE
OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 252330
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
730 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS START TO BUILD IN ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

720 PM UPDATE...
NOTING AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHIFTING E-SE OUT OF NY STATE
WHILE ANOTHER AREA MOVES ACROSS ON LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. A
BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W
MA OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
ON THE S END OF AN AREA MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND N VT/NH.
WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION...THE SMALL SHOWERS LOOK
TO DISSIPATE...BUT COULD SEE A FEW MORE TRY TO SNEAK INTO N MA
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NE WITH THE WARM FRONT.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER AS DEWPTS INCREASE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT WHICH IN TURN
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE MA/NH
BORDER LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  HOWEVER...MOST
OF THE ENERGY AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS REMAINS FARTHER NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...A REAL SUMMER-LIKE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA.  EXPECT WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF CAPE ANN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA.  SO KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THERE.  NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD STARTS TO BREAK DOWN...SHIFTING TO THE EAST.  THIS
WILL ALLOW BETTER INSTABILITY TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER NYS COULD MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS WARM AND MUGGY.  IT/LL
BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE
SUMMER WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK. WILL SEE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THIS
WEEKEND AT LEAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THEN DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY
THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO TRY AND
PUSH S OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THESE FRONTS
MOVING INTO A NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER FLOW...WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN
AND WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE SOME RELIEF
TO THE EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE WED-FRI
TIMEFRAME WHEN BEST SHOT FOR DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MOVING NE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL U.S...WHERE THE RECORD FLOODING RAINS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. TIMING ISSUES COME INTO PLAY
THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH AND WHETHER IT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OR SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.

LEANED TOWARD AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND ECENS MEANS
WHICH WERE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE WEEKEND FRONT INTO THE REGION AS
ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE LONG WAVE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGING SHIFTS E DURING WED WITH SW WIND FLOW AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT IN PLACE. WILL SEE FIRST IN SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL SLOWLY PUSH SE TOWARD THE REGION. GOOD INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. MODEL CAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG /NAM
IS HIGHER/...K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND LI/S
FALLING BELOW ZERO. LOWEST PARAMETERS LOOK TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ALSO NOTING INCREASING PWATS...UP TO 1.8 TO 1.9
INCHES...SO COULD SEE SOME DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.

HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING...WITH HIGHEST FROM NE...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MASS INTO N CENTRAL CT WHERE BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONG OR
EVEN POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR. SPC HAS MARGINAL SHOT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A
COUPLE OF SPOTS APPROACHING 90 WELL INLAND.

MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS...DEVELOP DURING WED NIGHT AS DEWPTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED BUT STILL DECENT SO COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT LENDING
TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5 INCHES
BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY
CONVECTION. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG S COASTAL AREAS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. ALSO NOTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH DOES NOT
HELP IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY FROM NE MASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS INTO N CENTRAL CT WITH DEWPTS IN
THE 60S. ONE MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
MAINLY FROM COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO BE THE CASE WITH UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERNS TRYING TO BREAK DOWN. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
S COAST ON MONDAY WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER AIR
WORK INTO N MA DURING MON AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THIS TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS LATE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE 40-45 KT AT 1000-2000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE...HIGHEST ALONG THE S COAST. NOT QUITE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO BE INSERTED INTO
TERMINALS...BUT SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS.

TUESDAY...VFR. COULD STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG NEAR
THE S COAST...MAINLY EARLY. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
NW CT AND WESTERN MA...INCLUDING BDL/BAF AND IN THE BERKSHIRES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED
NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS
OVERNIGHT. CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS FOR INCREASING SEAS AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  WHILE THE WINDS MAY ONLY REACH CRITERIA
BRIEFLY...SEAS WILL CLIMB TO 5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND SMALL CRAFTS INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT.
REDUCED VSBYS AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DOWN TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE OR LESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING
AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE
OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 252330
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
730 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS START TO BUILD IN ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

720 PM UPDATE...
NOTING AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHIFTING E-SE OUT OF NY STATE
WHILE ANOTHER AREA MOVES ACROSS ON LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. A
BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W
MA OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
ON THE S END OF AN AREA MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND N VT/NH.
WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION...THE SMALL SHOWERS LOOK
TO DISSIPATE...BUT COULD SEE A FEW MORE TRY TO SNEAK INTO N MA
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NE WITH THE WARM FRONT.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER AS DEWPTS INCREASE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT WHICH IN TURN
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE MA/NH
BORDER LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  HOWEVER...MOST
OF THE ENERGY AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS REMAINS FARTHER NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...A REAL SUMMER-LIKE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA.  EXPECT WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF CAPE ANN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA.  SO KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THERE.  NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD STARTS TO BREAK DOWN...SHIFTING TO THE EAST.  THIS
WILL ALLOW BETTER INSTABILITY TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER NYS COULD MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS WARM AND MUGGY.  IT/LL
BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE
SUMMER WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK. WILL SEE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THIS
WEEKEND AT LEAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THEN DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY
THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO TRY AND
PUSH S OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THESE FRONTS
MOVING INTO A NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER FLOW...WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN
AND WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE SOME RELIEF
TO THE EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE WED-FRI
TIMEFRAME WHEN BEST SHOT FOR DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MOVING NE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL U.S...WHERE THE RECORD FLOODING RAINS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. TIMING ISSUES COME INTO PLAY
THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH AND WHETHER IT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OR SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.

LEANED TOWARD AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND ECENS MEANS
WHICH WERE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE WEEKEND FRONT INTO THE REGION AS
ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE LONG WAVE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGING SHIFTS E DURING WED WITH SW WIND FLOW AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT IN PLACE. WILL SEE FIRST IN SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL SLOWLY PUSH SE TOWARD THE REGION. GOOD INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. MODEL CAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG /NAM
IS HIGHER/...K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND LI/S
FALLING BELOW ZERO. LOWEST PARAMETERS LOOK TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ALSO NOTING INCREASING PWATS...UP TO 1.8 TO 1.9
INCHES...SO COULD SEE SOME DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.

HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING...WITH HIGHEST FROM NE...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MASS INTO N CENTRAL CT WHERE BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONG OR
EVEN POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR. SPC HAS MARGINAL SHOT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A
COUPLE OF SPOTS APPROACHING 90 WELL INLAND.

MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS...DEVELOP DURING WED NIGHT AS DEWPTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED BUT STILL DECENT SO COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT LENDING
TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5 INCHES
BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY
CONVECTION. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG S COASTAL AREAS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. ALSO NOTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH DOES NOT
HELP IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY FROM NE MASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS INTO N CENTRAL CT WITH DEWPTS IN
THE 60S. ONE MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
MAINLY FROM COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO BE THE CASE WITH UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERNS TRYING TO BREAK DOWN. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
S COAST ON MONDAY WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER AIR
WORK INTO N MA DURING MON AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THIS TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS LATE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE 40-45 KT AT 1000-2000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE...HIGHEST ALONG THE S COAST. NOT QUITE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO BE INSERTED INTO
TERMINALS...BUT SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS.

TUESDAY...VFR. COULD STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG NEAR
THE S COAST...MAINLY EARLY. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
NW CT AND WESTERN MA...INCLUDING BDL/BAF AND IN THE BERKSHIRES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED
NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS
OVERNIGHT. CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS FOR INCREASING SEAS AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  WHILE THE WINDS MAY ONLY REACH CRITERIA
BRIEFLY...SEAS WILL CLIMB TO 5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND SMALL CRAFTS INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT.
REDUCED VSBYS AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DOWN TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE OR LESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING
AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE
OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 252330
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
730 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS START TO BUILD IN ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

720 PM UPDATE...
NOTING AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHIFTING E-SE OUT OF NY STATE
WHILE ANOTHER AREA MOVES ACROSS ON LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. A
BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W
MA OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
ON THE S END OF AN AREA MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND N VT/NH.
WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION...THE SMALL SHOWERS LOOK
TO DISSIPATE...BUT COULD SEE A FEW MORE TRY TO SNEAK INTO N MA
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NE WITH THE WARM FRONT.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER AS DEWPTS INCREASE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT WHICH IN TURN
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE MA/NH
BORDER LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  HOWEVER...MOST
OF THE ENERGY AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS REMAINS FARTHER NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...A REAL SUMMER-LIKE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA.  EXPECT WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF CAPE ANN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA.  SO KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THERE.  NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD STARTS TO BREAK DOWN...SHIFTING TO THE EAST.  THIS
WILL ALLOW BETTER INSTABILITY TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER NYS COULD MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS WARM AND MUGGY.  IT/LL
BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE
SUMMER WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK. WILL SEE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THIS
WEEKEND AT LEAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THEN DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY
THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO TRY AND
PUSH S OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THESE FRONTS
MOVING INTO A NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER FLOW...WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN
AND WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE SOME RELIEF
TO THE EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE WED-FRI
TIMEFRAME WHEN BEST SHOT FOR DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MOVING NE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL U.S...WHERE THE RECORD FLOODING RAINS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. TIMING ISSUES COME INTO PLAY
THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH AND WHETHER IT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OR SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.

LEANED TOWARD AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND ECENS MEANS
WHICH WERE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE WEEKEND FRONT INTO THE REGION AS
ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE LONG WAVE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGING SHIFTS E DURING WED WITH SW WIND FLOW AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT IN PLACE. WILL SEE FIRST IN SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL SLOWLY PUSH SE TOWARD THE REGION. GOOD INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. MODEL CAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG /NAM
IS HIGHER/...K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND LI/S
FALLING BELOW ZERO. LOWEST PARAMETERS LOOK TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ALSO NOTING INCREASING PWATS...UP TO 1.8 TO 1.9
INCHES...SO COULD SEE SOME DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.

HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING...WITH HIGHEST FROM NE...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MASS INTO N CENTRAL CT WHERE BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONG OR
EVEN POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR. SPC HAS MARGINAL SHOT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A
COUPLE OF SPOTS APPROACHING 90 WELL INLAND.

MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS...DEVELOP DURING WED NIGHT AS DEWPTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED BUT STILL DECENT SO COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT LENDING
TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5 INCHES
BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY
CONVECTION. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG S COASTAL AREAS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. ALSO NOTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH DOES NOT
HELP IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY FROM NE MASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS INTO N CENTRAL CT WITH DEWPTS IN
THE 60S. ONE MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
MAINLY FROM COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO BE THE CASE WITH UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERNS TRYING TO BREAK DOWN. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
S COAST ON MONDAY WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER AIR
WORK INTO N MA DURING MON AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THIS TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS LATE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE 40-45 KT AT 1000-2000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE...HIGHEST ALONG THE S COAST. NOT QUITE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO BE INSERTED INTO
TERMINALS...BUT SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS.

TUESDAY...VFR. COULD STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG NEAR
THE S COAST...MAINLY EARLY. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
NW CT AND WESTERN MA...INCLUDING BDL/BAF AND IN THE BERKSHIRES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED
NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS
OVERNIGHT. CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS FOR INCREASING SEAS AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  WHILE THE WINDS MAY ONLY REACH CRITERIA
BRIEFLY...SEAS WILL CLIMB TO 5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND SMALL CRAFTS INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT.
REDUCED VSBYS AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DOWN TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE OR LESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING
AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE
OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 252330
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
730 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS START TO BUILD IN ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

720 PM UPDATE...
NOTING AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHIFTING E-SE OUT OF NY STATE
WHILE ANOTHER AREA MOVES ACROSS ON LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. A
BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W
MA OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
ON THE S END OF AN AREA MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND N VT/NH.
WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION...THE SMALL SHOWERS LOOK
TO DISSIPATE...BUT COULD SEE A FEW MORE TRY TO SNEAK INTO N MA
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NE WITH THE WARM FRONT.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER AS DEWPTS INCREASE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT WHICH IN TURN
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE MA/NH
BORDER LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  HOWEVER...MOST
OF THE ENERGY AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS REMAINS FARTHER NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...A REAL SUMMER-LIKE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA.  EXPECT WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF CAPE ANN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA.  SO KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THERE.  NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD STARTS TO BREAK DOWN...SHIFTING TO THE EAST.  THIS
WILL ALLOW BETTER INSTABILITY TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER NYS COULD MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS WARM AND MUGGY.  IT/LL
BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE
SUMMER WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK. WILL SEE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THIS
WEEKEND AT LEAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THEN DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY
THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO TRY AND
PUSH S OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THESE FRONTS
MOVING INTO A NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER FLOW...WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN
AND WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE SOME RELIEF
TO THE EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE WED-FRI
TIMEFRAME WHEN BEST SHOT FOR DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MOVING NE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL U.S...WHERE THE RECORD FLOODING RAINS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. TIMING ISSUES COME INTO PLAY
THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH AND WHETHER IT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OR SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.

LEANED TOWARD AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND ECENS MEANS
WHICH WERE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE WEEKEND FRONT INTO THE REGION AS
ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE LONG WAVE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGING SHIFTS E DURING WED WITH SW WIND FLOW AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT IN PLACE. WILL SEE FIRST IN SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL SLOWLY PUSH SE TOWARD THE REGION. GOOD INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. MODEL CAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG /NAM
IS HIGHER/...K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND LI/S
FALLING BELOW ZERO. LOWEST PARAMETERS LOOK TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ALSO NOTING INCREASING PWATS...UP TO 1.8 TO 1.9
INCHES...SO COULD SEE SOME DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.

HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING...WITH HIGHEST FROM NE...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MASS INTO N CENTRAL CT WHERE BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONG OR
EVEN POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR. SPC HAS MARGINAL SHOT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A
COUPLE OF SPOTS APPROACHING 90 WELL INLAND.

MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS...DEVELOP DURING WED NIGHT AS DEWPTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED BUT STILL DECENT SO COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT LENDING
TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5 INCHES
BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY
CONVECTION. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG S COASTAL AREAS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. ALSO NOTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH DOES NOT
HELP IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY FROM NE MASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS INTO N CENTRAL CT WITH DEWPTS IN
THE 60S. ONE MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
MAINLY FROM COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO BE THE CASE WITH UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERNS TRYING TO BREAK DOWN. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
S COAST ON MONDAY WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER AIR
WORK INTO N MA DURING MON AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THIS TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS LATE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE 40-45 KT AT 1000-2000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE...HIGHEST ALONG THE S COAST. NOT QUITE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO BE INSERTED INTO
TERMINALS...BUT SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS.

TUESDAY...VFR. COULD STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG NEAR
THE S COAST...MAINLY EARLY. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
NW CT AND WESTERN MA...INCLUDING BDL/BAF AND IN THE BERKSHIRES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED
NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS
OVERNIGHT. CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS FOR INCREASING SEAS AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  WHILE THE WINDS MAY ONLY REACH CRITERIA
BRIEFLY...SEAS WILL CLIMB TO 5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND SMALL CRAFTS INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT.
REDUCED VSBYS AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DOWN TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE OR LESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING
AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE
OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 252330
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
730 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS START TO BUILD IN ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

720 PM UPDATE...
NOTING AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHIFTING E-SE OUT OF NY STATE
WHILE ANOTHER AREA MOVES ACROSS ON LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. A
BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W
MA OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
ON THE S END OF AN AREA MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND N VT/NH.
WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION...THE SMALL SHOWERS LOOK
TO DISSIPATE...BUT COULD SEE A FEW MORE TRY TO SNEAK INTO N MA
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NE WITH THE WARM FRONT.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER AS DEWPTS INCREASE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT WHICH IN TURN
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE MA/NH
BORDER LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  HOWEVER...MOST
OF THE ENERGY AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS REMAINS FARTHER NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...A REAL SUMMER-LIKE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA.  EXPECT WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF CAPE ANN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA.  SO KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THERE.  NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD STARTS TO BREAK DOWN...SHIFTING TO THE EAST.  THIS
WILL ALLOW BETTER INSTABILITY TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER NYS COULD MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS WARM AND MUGGY.  IT/LL
BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE
SUMMER WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK. WILL SEE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THIS
WEEKEND AT LEAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THEN DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY
THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO TRY AND
PUSH S OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THESE FRONTS
MOVING INTO A NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER FLOW...WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN
AND WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE SOME RELIEF
TO THE EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE WED-FRI
TIMEFRAME WHEN BEST SHOT FOR DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MOVING NE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL U.S...WHERE THE RECORD FLOODING RAINS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. TIMING ISSUES COME INTO PLAY
THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH AND WHETHER IT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OR SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.

LEANED TOWARD AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND ECENS MEANS
WHICH WERE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE WEEKEND FRONT INTO THE REGION AS
ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE LONG WAVE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGING SHIFTS E DURING WED WITH SW WIND FLOW AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT IN PLACE. WILL SEE FIRST IN SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL SLOWLY PUSH SE TOWARD THE REGION. GOOD INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. MODEL CAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG /NAM
IS HIGHER/...K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND LI/S
FALLING BELOW ZERO. LOWEST PARAMETERS LOOK TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ALSO NOTING INCREASING PWATS...UP TO 1.8 TO 1.9
INCHES...SO COULD SEE SOME DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.

HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING...WITH HIGHEST FROM NE...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MASS INTO N CENTRAL CT WHERE BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONG OR
EVEN POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR. SPC HAS MARGINAL SHOT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A
COUPLE OF SPOTS APPROACHING 90 WELL INLAND.

MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS...DEVELOP DURING WED NIGHT AS DEWPTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED BUT STILL DECENT SO COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT LENDING
TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5 INCHES
BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY
CONVECTION. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG S COASTAL AREAS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. ALSO NOTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH DOES NOT
HELP IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY FROM NE MASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS INTO N CENTRAL CT WITH DEWPTS IN
THE 60S. ONE MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
MAINLY FROM COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO BE THE CASE WITH UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERNS TRYING TO BREAK DOWN. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
S COAST ON MONDAY WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER AIR
WORK INTO N MA DURING MON AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THIS TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS LATE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE 40-45 KT AT 1000-2000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE...HIGHEST ALONG THE S COAST. NOT QUITE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO BE INSERTED INTO
TERMINALS...BUT SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS.

TUESDAY...VFR. COULD STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG NEAR
THE S COAST...MAINLY EARLY. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
NW CT AND WESTERN MA...INCLUDING BDL/BAF AND IN THE BERKSHIRES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED
NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS
OVERNIGHT. CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS FOR INCREASING SEAS AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  WHILE THE WINDS MAY ONLY REACH CRITERIA
BRIEFLY...SEAS WILL CLIMB TO 5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND SMALL CRAFTS INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT.
REDUCED VSBYS AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DOWN TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE OR LESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING
AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE
OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 252100
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
500 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS START TO BUILD IN ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THIS
AFTERNOON DESPITE THE THICKENING CLOUD COVER. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
LINGER AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS UP BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.  THE
WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY IN NEW YORK AND WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND THEN NORTH OF THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT WHICH IN TURN
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE MA/NH
BORDER LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  HOWEVER...MOST
OF THE ENERGY AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS REMAINS FARTHER NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...A REAL SUMMER-LIKE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA.  EXPECT WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF CAPE ANN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA.  SO KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THERE.  NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD STARTS TO BREAK DOWN...SHIFTING TO THE EAST.  THIS
WILL ALLOW BETTER INSTABILITY TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER NYS COULD MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS WARM AND MUGGY.  IT/LL
BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE
SUMMER WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK. WILL SEE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THIS
WEEKEND AT LEAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THEN DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY
THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO TRY AND
PUSH S OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THESE FRONTS
MOVING INTO A NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER FLOW...WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN
AND WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE SOME RELIEF
TO THE EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE WED-FRI
TIMEFRAME WHEN BEST SHOT FOR DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MOVING NE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL U.S...WHERE THE RECORD FLOODING RAINS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. TIMING ISSUES COME INTO PLAY
THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH AND WHETHER IT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OR SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.

LEANED TOWARD AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND ECENS MEANS
WHICH WERE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE WEEKEND FRONT INTO THE REGION AS
ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE LONG WAVE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGING SHIFTS E DURING WED WITH SW WIND FLOW AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT IN PLACE. WILL SEE FIRST IN SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL SLOWLY PUSH SE TOWARD THE REGION. GOOD INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. MODEL CAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG /NAM
IS HIGHER/...K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND LI/S
FALLING BELOW ZERO. LOWEST PARAMETERS LOOK TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ALSO NOTING INCREASING PWATS...UP TO 1.8 TO 1.9
INCHES...SO COULD SEE SOME DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.

HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING...WITH HIGHEST FROM NE...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MASS INTO N CENTRAL CT WHERE BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONG OR
EVEN POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR. SPC HAS MARGINAL SHOT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A
COUPLE OF SPOTS APPROACHING 90 WELL INLAND.

MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS...DEVELOP DURING WED NIGHT AS DEWPTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED BUT STILL DECENT SO COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT LENDING
TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5 INCHES
BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY
CONVECTION. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG S COASTAL AREAS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. ALSO NOTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH DOES NOT
HELP IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY FROM NE MASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS INTO N CENTRAL CT WITH DEWPTS IN
THE 60S. ONE MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
MAINLY FROM COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO BE THE CASE WITH UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERNS TRYING TO BREAK DOWN. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
S COAST ON MONDAY WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER AIR
WORK INTO N MA DURING MON AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THIS TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

18Z UPDATE...

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CIGS. SCT SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE N-HALF OF S NEW ENGLAND. SW WINDS 10-15 KTS MAY GUST
TO 25 KT INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS LATE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS. SW WINDS WILL BE UP TO 40 KT AT 1000-2000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR TO BE INSERTED INTO TERMINALS...BUT IMPORTANT TO BE AWARE
OF.

TUESDAY...VFR. COULD STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG NEAR
THE S COAST...MAINLY EARLY. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
NW CT AND WESTERN MA...INCLUDING BDL/BAF AND IN THE BERKSHIRES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED
NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS
OVERNIGHT. CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS FOR INCREASING SEAS AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  WHILE THE WINDS MAY ONLY REACH CRITERIA
BRIEFLY...SEAS WILL CLIMB TO 5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND SMALL CRAFTS INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT.
REDUCED VSBYS AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DOWN TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE OR LESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING
AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE
OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 252100
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
500 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS START TO BUILD IN ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THIS
AFTERNOON DESPITE THE THICKENING CLOUD COVER. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
LINGER AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS UP BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.  THE
WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY IN NEW YORK AND WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND THEN NORTH OF THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT WHICH IN TURN
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE MA/NH
BORDER LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  HOWEVER...MOST
OF THE ENERGY AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS REMAINS FARTHER NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...A REAL SUMMER-LIKE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA.  EXPECT WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF CAPE ANN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA.  SO KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THERE.  NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD STARTS TO BREAK DOWN...SHIFTING TO THE EAST.  THIS
WILL ALLOW BETTER INSTABILITY TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER NYS COULD MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS WARM AND MUGGY.  IT/LL
BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE
SUMMER WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK. WILL SEE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THIS
WEEKEND AT LEAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THEN DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY
THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO TRY AND
PUSH S OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THESE FRONTS
MOVING INTO A NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER FLOW...WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN
AND WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE SOME RELIEF
TO THE EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE WED-FRI
TIMEFRAME WHEN BEST SHOT FOR DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MOVING NE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL U.S...WHERE THE RECORD FLOODING RAINS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. TIMING ISSUES COME INTO PLAY
THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH AND WHETHER IT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OR SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.

LEANED TOWARD AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND ECENS MEANS
WHICH WERE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE WEEKEND FRONT INTO THE REGION AS
ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE LONG WAVE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGING SHIFTS E DURING WED WITH SW WIND FLOW AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT IN PLACE. WILL SEE FIRST IN SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL SLOWLY PUSH SE TOWARD THE REGION. GOOD INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. MODEL CAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG /NAM
IS HIGHER/...K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND LI/S
FALLING BELOW ZERO. LOWEST PARAMETERS LOOK TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ALSO NOTING INCREASING PWATS...UP TO 1.8 TO 1.9
INCHES...SO COULD SEE SOME DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.

HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING...WITH HIGHEST FROM NE...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MASS INTO N CENTRAL CT WHERE BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONG OR
EVEN POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR. SPC HAS MARGINAL SHOT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A
COUPLE OF SPOTS APPROACHING 90 WELL INLAND.

MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS...DEVELOP DURING WED NIGHT AS DEWPTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED BUT STILL DECENT SO COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT LENDING
TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5 INCHES
BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY
CONVECTION. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG S COASTAL AREAS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. ALSO NOTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH DOES NOT
HELP IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY FROM NE MASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS INTO N CENTRAL CT WITH DEWPTS IN
THE 60S. ONE MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
MAINLY FROM COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO BE THE CASE WITH UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERNS TRYING TO BREAK DOWN. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
S COAST ON MONDAY WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER AIR
WORK INTO N MA DURING MON AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THIS TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

18Z UPDATE...

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CIGS. SCT SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE N-HALF OF S NEW ENGLAND. SW WINDS 10-15 KTS MAY GUST
TO 25 KT INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS LATE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS. SW WINDS WILL BE UP TO 40 KT AT 1000-2000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR TO BE INSERTED INTO TERMINALS...BUT IMPORTANT TO BE AWARE
OF.

TUESDAY...VFR. COULD STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG NEAR
THE S COAST...MAINLY EARLY. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
NW CT AND WESTERN MA...INCLUDING BDL/BAF AND IN THE BERKSHIRES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED
NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS
OVERNIGHT. CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS FOR INCREASING SEAS AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  WHILE THE WINDS MAY ONLY REACH CRITERIA
BRIEFLY...SEAS WILL CLIMB TO 5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND SMALL CRAFTS INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT.
REDUCED VSBYS AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DOWN TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE OR LESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING
AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE
OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 251936
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
336 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS START TO BUILD IN ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THIS
AFTERNOON DESPITE THE THICKENING CLOUD COVER. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
LINGER AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS UP BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.  THE
WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY IN NEW YORK AND WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND THEN NORTH OF THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT WHICH IN TURN
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE MA/NH
BORDER LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  HOWEVER...MOST
OF THE ENERGY AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS REMAINS FARTHER NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...A REAL SUMMER-LIKE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA.  EXPECT WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF CAPE ANN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA.  SO KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THERE.  NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD STARTS TO BREAK DOWN...SHIFTING TO THE EAST.  THIS
WILL ALLOW BETTER INSTABILITY TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER NYS COULD MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS WARM AND MUGGY.  IT/LL
BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
 - THREAT OF MARINE STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S COAST
 - SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY
 - THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER
 - POTENTIAL LULL IN ACTIVITY FRIDAY
 - ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND

*/ DISCUSSION...

TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
DEAMPLIFIES ALLOWING MID-LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SW-CONVERGENT FLOW AND RRQ OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET TO SLINK SE TOWARDS
SNE. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE. INITIAL ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS PA / UPSTATE NY BY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
FOCUS APPEARS TO BE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARALLEL WITH LOW-
LEVEL THETA-E/INSTABILITY AXES PRESSING E WITH THE WSW STEERING FLOW
INTO N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LIKELY SOME SEVERE
TO THE W. OUTCOMES UNCERTAIN FOR HERE. PER BUFKIT CAPPING INVERSION
ALONG WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR LINGERS. H925-85 SW-FLOW IS
DIVERGENT. SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY PUSHES E INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BUT LOSES ITS PUNCH AS IT DOES SO. SHOWERS POTENTIALLY LINGERING
INTO THE FOLLOWING MORNING. WITH ANTICIPATED ELEVATED INSTABILITY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OTHERWISE... WARM /
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH S-FLOW OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR N...THOUGH MID-
TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS MAY LIMIT HEATING. MARINE STRATUS / FOG
LIKELY TO BE AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR S/SE-
COASTAL COMMUNITIES AS MOISTURE POOLS BENEATH A STOUT WARM-DRY-
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

THURSDAY - THURSDAY NIGHT: MAIN DRIVING FORCE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
AND ATTENDANT JET-STREAK LIFTS NE RESULTING IN A COOL FRONT PUSHING
SE OUT OF CANADA TO BECOME DIFFUSE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IN
ADDITION TO POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER LEFT-OVER FROM WEDNESDAY PUTS INTO
QUESTION OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER MAY NOT DESTABILIZE...MID-LEVEL COOLING LENDING TO INCREASED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE SUGGESTION OF PERHAPS SOME MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING /IN ADDITION TO THE CONSENSUS OF DECENT THETA-E
AND INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS SNE/ YIELDS CONTINUED CHANCE SHOWER /
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. DECENT SHEAR SO A SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE BUT
HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE TOWARDS A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. PWATS IN EXCESS
OF 1.5-INCHES WITH FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS OF 11-12 KFT. CONTINUING
WITH A WARM-MUGGY THEME WITH RESPECT TO CONDITIONS AS WELL AS MARINE
STRATUS / FOG BEING AN ISSUE ALONG THE S/SE-COAST.

FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT: DISCREPANCIES AMONG FORECAST GUIDANCE. WHILE
THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS PRIME FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...
NOT A LOT OF FORCING APPARENT. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE
INFLUENTIAL AS RIDGING ENHANCES ALOFT EVER SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A
WEEKEND DISTURBANCE. BIGGEST DISCREPANCY CENTERS AROUND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY TO WHICH GFS BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST CAN DESTABILIZE.
WILL KEEP WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE PERIOD.

WEEKEND - EARLY NEXT WEEK: AGREED UPON THAT ENERGY DIVING S ROUND
THE N CANADIAN VORTEX MEETS UP WITH ENERGY OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS
PUSHING A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY S ACROSS THE NE CONUS. UNCLEAR AS
TO ITS EVOLUTION...WHETHER IT STALLS. FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BECOMES COMPLICATED. OF CERTAINTY IS THAT A PRIMED ENVIRONMENT LOOKS
TO EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BENEATH DEEP-LAYER FORCING.
THIS SHOULD YIELD LIKELY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BUT WITH
TIMING AND LONGEVITY UNCERTAIN WILL KEEP WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

18Z UPDATE...

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CIGS. SCT SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE N-HALF OF S NEW ENGLAND. SW WINDS 10-15 KTS MAY GUST
TO 25 KT INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS LATE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS. SW WINDS WILL BE UP TO 40 KT AT 1000-2000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR TO BE INSERTED INTO TERMINALS...BUT IMPORTANT TO BE AWARE
OF.

TUESDAY...VFR. COULD STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG NEAR
THE S COAST...MAINLY EARLY. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
NW CT AND WESTERN MA...INCLUDING BDL/BAF AND IN THE BERKSHIRES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY SW-FLOW WITH 20 KT GUSTS AT TIMES. IFR STRATUS / FOG POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST. INCREASING CHANCES FOR -SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING
LATE WEDNESDAY TO W...MOST EVERYWHERE THURSDAY...CONCLUDING EARLY
FRIDAY. TEMPO MVFR-IFR WITH ANY ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS FOR INCREASING SEAS AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  WHILE THE WINDS MAY ONLY REACH CRITERIA
BRIEFLY...SEAS WILL CLIMB TO 5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

PERSISTENT SW-FETCH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS AT TIMES.
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH SWELL AND WIND-WAVE MOSTLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS BUT GETTING INTO THE S INNER SOUNDS. DENSE FOG ANTICIPATED
LENDING TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY RISE INTO THE 50S TOWARDS
THE END OF TODAY. SW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
EXPECTED...UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. FORECASTED MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL BE JUST ABOVE 30-PERCENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR...45 TO 55 PERCENT
ON THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE COD/ISLANDS.

WITH THE INCREASING HUMIDITY...THERE IS A DECREASED FIRE WEATHER
RISK SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING A STATEMENT AT THIS TIME.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER ON TUESDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE
RISING KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 251859
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
259 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PROVIDING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE
WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SPRAWLING BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST OF THE U.S.
CONTINUES TO BRING W/SW WINDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS HELPED
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT
SHOWERS WERE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS NH AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MAINE. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NE AND
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT AS LI VALUES PEAK. CLOUD COVER
WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE (50S AND 60S) AND
WE MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL SEE A SIMILAR SCENARIO TOMORROW TEMPERATURE WISE AS TODAY
WITH EVEN LESS CLOUD COVER AS WE WILL BE SANS WARM FRONT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN A LITTLE MORE TOMORROW AS WELL
TRANSLATING INTO WARMER READINGS AT THE SURFACE. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SE AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NW WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
DESPITE THIS RH VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE 30%. CLOUD COVER
INCREASES ONCE AGAIN FROM SW TO NE AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN CANADA LIFTS A WARM FRONT INTO THE REGION.
WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS DEVELOP IN NH AND MAINE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IN A NUTSHELL...IT LOOKS LIKE A
SUMMERY PATTERN WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH
HUMIDITY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH WILL
APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE BETTER FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES ON THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL DETERMINE HOW
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GETS. THE LATEST ECMWF
MOVES IT THROUGH PRETTY QUICKLY...AND IF THAT SOLUTION
VERIFIES...COVERAGE MAY BE MINIMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY WITH SWLY RETURN FLOW SETTING US
UP FOR ANOTHER POTENTIALLY HOT DAY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE SAT AND SUN WITH THE ATTENDANT THREAT FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
CAPITAL DISTRICT MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS. GUSTY
SSW WINDS IN THE 20 KT RANGE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY.


LONG TERM...WED - THU...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. VFR
EXPECTED FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SWELL OF 6-7 FT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH WINDS
GUSTING GENERALLY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. THIS FALLS SHORT OF SCA
CRITERIA.


LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WED AND
THURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RH VALUES INCREASE TO 40-50 PERCENT THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. WILL STILL SEE SOME
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO NEAR 20-25 MPH ON TUESDAY. SO ALTHOUGH
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA...FIRE DANGER MAY STILL BE ENHANCED
DEPENDING ON LOCAL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...HANES
LONG TERM...MLE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 251859
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
259 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PROVIDING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE
WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SPRAWLING BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST OF THE U.S.
CONTINUES TO BRING W/SW WINDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS HELPED
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT
SHOWERS WERE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS NH AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MAINE. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NE AND
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT AS LI VALUES PEAK. CLOUD COVER
WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE (50S AND 60S) AND
WE MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL SEE A SIMILAR SCENARIO TOMORROW TEMPERATURE WISE AS TODAY
WITH EVEN LESS CLOUD COVER AS WE WILL BE SANS WARM FRONT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN A LITTLE MORE TOMORROW AS WELL
TRANSLATING INTO WARMER READINGS AT THE SURFACE. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SE AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NW WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
DESPITE THIS RH VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE 30%. CLOUD COVER
INCREASES ONCE AGAIN FROM SW TO NE AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN CANADA LIFTS A WARM FRONT INTO THE REGION.
WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS DEVELOP IN NH AND MAINE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IN A NUTSHELL...IT LOOKS LIKE A
SUMMERY PATTERN WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH
HUMIDITY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH WILL
APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE BETTER FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES ON THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL DETERMINE HOW
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GETS. THE LATEST ECMWF
MOVES IT THROUGH PRETTY QUICKLY...AND IF THAT SOLUTION
VERIFIES...COVERAGE MAY BE MINIMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY WITH SWLY RETURN FLOW SETTING US
UP FOR ANOTHER POTENTIALLY HOT DAY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE SAT AND SUN WITH THE ATTENDANT THREAT FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
CAPITAL DISTRICT MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS. GUSTY
SSW WINDS IN THE 20 KT RANGE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY.


LONG TERM...WED - THU...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. VFR
EXPECTED FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SWELL OF 6-7 FT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH WINDS
GUSTING GENERALLY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. THIS FALLS SHORT OF SCA
CRITERIA.


LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WED AND
THURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RH VALUES INCREASE TO 40-50 PERCENT THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. WILL STILL SEE SOME
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO NEAR 20-25 MPH ON TUESDAY. SO ALTHOUGH
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA...FIRE DANGER MAY STILL BE ENHANCED
DEPENDING ON LOCAL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...HANES
LONG TERM...MLE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 251859
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
259 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PROVIDING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE
WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SPRAWLING BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST OF THE U.S.
CONTINUES TO BRING W/SW WINDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS HELPED
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT
SHOWERS WERE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS NH AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MAINE. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NE AND
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT AS LI VALUES PEAK. CLOUD COVER
WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE (50S AND 60S) AND
WE MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL SEE A SIMILAR SCENARIO TOMORROW TEMPERATURE WISE AS TODAY
WITH EVEN LESS CLOUD COVER AS WE WILL BE SANS WARM FRONT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN A LITTLE MORE TOMORROW AS WELL
TRANSLATING INTO WARMER READINGS AT THE SURFACE. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SE AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NW WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
DESPITE THIS RH VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE 30%. CLOUD COVER
INCREASES ONCE AGAIN FROM SW TO NE AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN CANADA LIFTS A WARM FRONT INTO THE REGION.
WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS DEVELOP IN NH AND MAINE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IN A NUTSHELL...IT LOOKS LIKE A
SUMMERY PATTERN WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH
HUMIDITY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH WILL
APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE BETTER FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES ON THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL DETERMINE HOW
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GETS. THE LATEST ECMWF
MOVES IT THROUGH PRETTY QUICKLY...AND IF THAT SOLUTION
VERIFIES...COVERAGE MAY BE MINIMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY WITH SWLY RETURN FLOW SETTING US
UP FOR ANOTHER POTENTIALLY HOT DAY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE SAT AND SUN WITH THE ATTENDANT THREAT FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
CAPITAL DISTRICT MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS. GUSTY
SSW WINDS IN THE 20 KT RANGE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY.


LONG TERM...WED - THU...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. VFR
EXPECTED FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SWELL OF 6-7 FT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH WINDS
GUSTING GENERALLY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. THIS FALLS SHORT OF SCA
CRITERIA.


LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WED AND
THURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RH VALUES INCREASE TO 40-50 PERCENT THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. WILL STILL SEE SOME
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO NEAR 20-25 MPH ON TUESDAY. SO ALTHOUGH
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA...FIRE DANGER MAY STILL BE ENHANCED
DEPENDING ON LOCAL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...HANES
LONG TERM...MLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 251859
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
259 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PROVIDING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE
WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SPRAWLING BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST OF THE U.S.
CONTINUES TO BRING W/SW WINDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS HELPED
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT
SHOWERS WERE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS NH AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MAINE. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NE AND
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT AS LI VALUES PEAK. CLOUD COVER
WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE (50S AND 60S) AND
WE MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL SEE A SIMILAR SCENARIO TOMORROW TEMPERATURE WISE AS TODAY
WITH EVEN LESS CLOUD COVER AS WE WILL BE SANS WARM FRONT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN A LITTLE MORE TOMORROW AS WELL
TRANSLATING INTO WARMER READINGS AT THE SURFACE. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SE AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NW WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
DESPITE THIS RH VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE 30%. CLOUD COVER
INCREASES ONCE AGAIN FROM SW TO NE AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN CANADA LIFTS A WARM FRONT INTO THE REGION.
WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS DEVELOP IN NH AND MAINE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IN A NUTSHELL...IT LOOKS LIKE A
SUMMERY PATTERN WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH
HUMIDITY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH WILL
APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE BETTER FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES ON THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL DETERMINE HOW
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GETS. THE LATEST ECMWF
MOVES IT THROUGH PRETTY QUICKLY...AND IF THAT SOLUTION
VERIFIES...COVERAGE MAY BE MINIMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY WITH SWLY RETURN FLOW SETTING US
UP FOR ANOTHER POTENTIALLY HOT DAY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE SAT AND SUN WITH THE ATTENDANT THREAT FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
CAPITAL DISTRICT MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS. GUSTY
SSW WINDS IN THE 20 KT RANGE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY.


LONG TERM...WED - THU...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. VFR
EXPECTED FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SWELL OF 6-7 FT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH WINDS
GUSTING GENERALLY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. THIS FALLS SHORT OF SCA
CRITERIA.


LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WED AND
THURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RH VALUES INCREASE TO 40-50 PERCENT THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. WILL STILL SEE SOME
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO NEAR 20-25 MPH ON TUESDAY. SO ALTHOUGH
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA...FIRE DANGER MAY STILL BE ENHANCED
DEPENDING ON LOCAL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...HANES
LONG TERM...MLE




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251743
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
143 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES HAVE LARGELY COME TO AN END OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE EXCEPTION BEING A COUPLE OF SPOT SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS. AGAIN...NOT MUCH...IF ANY PRECIP IS
ACTUALLY HITTING THE GROUND. OVERALL...THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO THE SKY COVER AND WINDS. IN
TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 70S LOOK TO BE ON TRACK FOR HITTING
THE LOW TO MID 80S BY THE TIME DIURNAL HEATING IS OVER.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AND S/SW WINDS INCREASING
TO 30-35 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE S-COAST. BUFKIT SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND
GUSTS TO 20-28 MPH OVER LAND AREAS WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF 5 PM.
THE WIND GUSTS REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
DUE TO A PRONOUNCED INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT WILL HELP INCREASE
DEWPOINTS TO THE UPPER 50S AND ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S. A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 40
KNOTS AT 925 MB WILL BE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BUT THE AIR SHOULD
BE DECOUPLED ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRONG WIND GUSTS AT THE GROUND.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE
COD/ISLANDS. VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ALONG THE MA/NH
BORDER. AGAIN...MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

TUESDAY...S NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST
AIR FLOW AROUND A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING MAY THIN ALLOWING SUNSHINE FOR A TIME. IT WILL BE BREEZY
AND VERY WARM. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING IN THE 60S...IT WILL
NOT TAKE LONG FOR TEMPERATURES TO ZOOM INTO THE 80S...MAXING OUT
IN THE UPPER 80S ESPECIALLY IN THE CONNECTICUT AND MERRIMACK
VALLEYS...BUT STILL UPPER 60S AND 70S AT THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE COD/
ISLANDS. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA TO POP SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
WE HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY IN THOSE AREAS...BUT
REMAINING DRY IN EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
 - THREAT OF MARINE STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S COAST
 - SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY
 - THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER
 - POTENTIAL LULL IN ACTIVITY FRIDAY
 - ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND

*/ DISCUSSION...

TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
DEAMPLIFIES ALLOWING MID-LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SW-CONVERGENT FLOW AND RRQ OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET TO SLINK SE TOWARDS
SNE. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE. INITIAL ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS PA / UPSTATE NY BY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
FOCUS APPEARS TO BE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARALLEL WITH LOW-
LEVEL THETA-E/INSTABILITY AXES PRESSING E WITH THE WSW STEERING FLOW
INTO N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LIKELY SOME SEVERE
TO THE W. OUTCOMES UNCERTAIN FOR HERE. PER BUFKIT CAPPING INVERSION
ALONG WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR LINGERS. H925-85 SW-FLOW IS
DIVERGENT. SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY PUSHES E INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BUT LOSES ITS PUNCH AS IT DOES SO. SHOWERS POTENTIALLY LINGERING
INTO THE FOLLOWING MORNING. WITH ANTICIPATED ELEVATED INSTABILITY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OTHERWISE... WARM /
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH S-FLOW OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR N...THOUGH MID-
TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS MAY LIMIT HEATING. MARINE STRATUS / FOG
LIKELY TO BE AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR S/SE-
COASTAL COMMUNITIES AS MOISTURE POOLS BENEATH A STOUT WARM-DRY-
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

THURSDAY - THURSDAY NIGHT: MAIN DRIVING FORCE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
AND ATTENDANT JET-STREAK LIFTS NE RESULTING IN A COOL FRONT PUSHING
SE OUT OF CANADA TO BECOME DIFFUSE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IN
ADDITION TO POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER LEFT-OVER FROM WEDNESDAY PUTS INTO
QUESTION OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER MAY NOT DESTABILIZE...MID-LEVEL COOLING LENDING TO INCREASED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE SUGGESTION OF PERHAPS SOME MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING /IN ADDITION TO THE CONSENSUS OF DECENT THETA-E
AND INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS SNE/ YIELDS CONTINUED CHANCE SHOWER /
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. DECENT SHEAR SO A SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE BUT
HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE TOWARDS A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. PWATS IN EXCESS
OF 1.5-INCHES WITH FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS OF 11-12 KFT. CONTINUING
WITH A WARM-MUGGY THEME WITH RESPECT TO CONDITIONS AS WELL AS MARINE
STRATUS / FOG BEING AN ISSUE ALONG THE S/SE-COAST.

FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT: DISCREPANCIES AMONG FORECAST GUIDANCE. WHILE
THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS PRIME FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...
NOT A LOT OF FORCING APPARENT. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE
INFLUENTIAL AS RIDGING ENHANCES ALOFT EVER SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A
WEEKEND DISTURBANCE. BIGGEST DISCREPANCY CENTERS AROUND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY TO WHICH GFS BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST CAN DESTABILIZE.
WILL KEEP WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE PERIOD.

WEEKEND - EARLY NEXT WEEK: AGREED UPON THAT ENERGY DIVING S ROUND
THE N CANADIAN VORTEX MEETS UP WITH ENERGY OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS
PUSHING A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY S ACROSS THE NE CONUS. UNCLEAR AS
TO ITS EVOLUTION...WHETHER IT STALLS. FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BECOMES COMPLICATED. OF CERTAINTY IS THAT A PRIMED ENVIRONMENT LOOKS
TO EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BENEATH DEEP-LAYER FORCING.
THIS SHOULD YIELD LIKELY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BUT WITH
TIMING AND LONGEVITY UNCERTAIN WILL KEEP WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

18Z UPDATE...

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CIGS. SCT SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE N-HALF OF S NEW ENGLAND. SW WINDS 10-15 KTS MAY GUST
TO 25 KT INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS LATE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS. SW WINDS WILL BE UP TO 40 KT AT 1000-2000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR TO BE INSERTED INTO TERMINALS...BUT IMPORTANT TO BE AWARE
OF.

TUESDAY...VFR. COULD STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG NEAR
THE S COAST...MAINLY EARLY. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
NW CT AND WESTERN MA...INCLUDING BDL/BAF AND IN THE BERKSHIRES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY SW-FLOW WITH 20 KT GUSTS AT TIMES. IFR STRATUS / FOG POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST. INCREASING CHANCES FOR -SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING
LATE WEDNESDAY TO W...MOST EVERYWHERE THURSDAY...CONCLUDING EARLY
FRIDAY. TEMPO MVFR-IFR WITH ANY ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SW WINDS...GUSTING UP TO 20 KT ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT.

TONIGHT...SW WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT. EXPECTING LOW LEVEL
INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT FROM MAKING IT DOWN TO
THE SEA SURFACE. SEAS BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
EVENING AND THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH
TUE.

TUESDAY...GUSTY SW WIND FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUES OVER THE
OUTER WATERS...AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. HAVE INCLUDED NANTUCKET SOUND IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR TUE AS WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 20 TO 25 KT THERE AS WELL.
A FEW FOG PATCHES WITH RESTRICTED VISIBILITY POSSIBLE ON THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

PERSISTENT SW-FETCH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS AT TIMES.
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH SWELL AND WIND-WAVE MOSTLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS BUT GETTING INTO THE S INNER SOUNDS. DENSE FOG ANTICIPATED
LENDING TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY RISE INTO THE 50S TOWARDS
THE END OF TODAY. SW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
EXPECTED...UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. FORECASTED MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL BE JUST ABOVE 30-PERCENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR...45 TO 55 PERCENT
ON THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE COD/ISLANDS.

WITH THE INCREASING HUMIDITY...THERE IS A DECREASED FIRE WEATHER
RISK SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING A STATEMENT AT THIS TIME.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER ON TUESDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE
RISING KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/GAF
NEAR TERM...RLG/GAF
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL/GAF
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...SIPPRELL/GAF
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 251743
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
143 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES HAVE LARGELY COME TO AN END OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE EXCEPTION BEING A COUPLE OF SPOT SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS. AGAIN...NOT MUCH...IF ANY PRECIP IS
ACTUALLY HITTING THE GROUND. OVERALL...THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO THE SKY COVER AND WINDS. IN
TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 70S LOOK TO BE ON TRACK FOR HITTING
THE LOW TO MID 80S BY THE TIME DIURNAL HEATING IS OVER.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AND S/SW WINDS INCREASING
TO 30-35 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE S-COAST. BUFKIT SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND
GUSTS TO 20-28 MPH OVER LAND AREAS WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF 5 PM.
THE WIND GUSTS REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
DUE TO A PRONOUNCED INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT WILL HELP INCREASE
DEWPOINTS TO THE UPPER 50S AND ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S. A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 40
KNOTS AT 925 MB WILL BE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BUT THE AIR SHOULD
BE DECOUPLED ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRONG WIND GUSTS AT THE GROUND.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE
COD/ISLANDS. VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ALONG THE MA/NH
BORDER. AGAIN...MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

TUESDAY...S NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST
AIR FLOW AROUND A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING MAY THIN ALLOWING SUNSHINE FOR A TIME. IT WILL BE BREEZY
AND VERY WARM. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING IN THE 60S...IT WILL
NOT TAKE LONG FOR TEMPERATURES TO ZOOM INTO THE 80S...MAXING OUT
IN THE UPPER 80S ESPECIALLY IN THE CONNECTICUT AND MERRIMACK
VALLEYS...BUT STILL UPPER 60S AND 70S AT THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE COD/
ISLANDS. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA TO POP SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
WE HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY IN THOSE AREAS...BUT
REMAINING DRY IN EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
 - THREAT OF MARINE STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S COAST
 - SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY
 - THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER
 - POTENTIAL LULL IN ACTIVITY FRIDAY
 - ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND

*/ DISCUSSION...

TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
DEAMPLIFIES ALLOWING MID-LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SW-CONVERGENT FLOW AND RRQ OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET TO SLINK SE TOWARDS
SNE. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE. INITIAL ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS PA / UPSTATE NY BY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
FOCUS APPEARS TO BE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARALLEL WITH LOW-
LEVEL THETA-E/INSTABILITY AXES PRESSING E WITH THE WSW STEERING FLOW
INTO N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LIKELY SOME SEVERE
TO THE W. OUTCOMES UNCERTAIN FOR HERE. PER BUFKIT CAPPING INVERSION
ALONG WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR LINGERS. H925-85 SW-FLOW IS
DIVERGENT. SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY PUSHES E INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BUT LOSES ITS PUNCH AS IT DOES SO. SHOWERS POTENTIALLY LINGERING
INTO THE FOLLOWING MORNING. WITH ANTICIPATED ELEVATED INSTABILITY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OTHERWISE... WARM /
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH S-FLOW OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR N...THOUGH MID-
TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS MAY LIMIT HEATING. MARINE STRATUS / FOG
LIKELY TO BE AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR S/SE-
COASTAL COMMUNITIES AS MOISTURE POOLS BENEATH A STOUT WARM-DRY-
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

THURSDAY - THURSDAY NIGHT: MAIN DRIVING FORCE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
AND ATTENDANT JET-STREAK LIFTS NE RESULTING IN A COOL FRONT PUSHING
SE OUT OF CANADA TO BECOME DIFFUSE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IN
ADDITION TO POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER LEFT-OVER FROM WEDNESDAY PUTS INTO
QUESTION OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER MAY NOT DESTABILIZE...MID-LEVEL COOLING LENDING TO INCREASED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE SUGGESTION OF PERHAPS SOME MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING /IN ADDITION TO THE CONSENSUS OF DECENT THETA-E
AND INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS SNE/ YIELDS CONTINUED CHANCE SHOWER /
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. DECENT SHEAR SO A SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE BUT
HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE TOWARDS A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. PWATS IN EXCESS
OF 1.5-INCHES WITH FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS OF 11-12 KFT. CONTINUING
WITH A WARM-MUGGY THEME WITH RESPECT TO CONDITIONS AS WELL AS MARINE
STRATUS / FOG BEING AN ISSUE ALONG THE S/SE-COAST.

FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT: DISCREPANCIES AMONG FORECAST GUIDANCE. WHILE
THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS PRIME FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...
NOT A LOT OF FORCING APPARENT. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE
INFLUENTIAL AS RIDGING ENHANCES ALOFT EVER SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A
WEEKEND DISTURBANCE. BIGGEST DISCREPANCY CENTERS AROUND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY TO WHICH GFS BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST CAN DESTABILIZE.
WILL KEEP WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE PERIOD.

WEEKEND - EARLY NEXT WEEK: AGREED UPON THAT ENERGY DIVING S ROUND
THE N CANADIAN VORTEX MEETS UP WITH ENERGY OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS
PUSHING A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY S ACROSS THE NE CONUS. UNCLEAR AS
TO ITS EVOLUTION...WHETHER IT STALLS. FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BECOMES COMPLICATED. OF CERTAINTY IS THAT A PRIMED ENVIRONMENT LOOKS
TO EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BENEATH DEEP-LAYER FORCING.
THIS SHOULD YIELD LIKELY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BUT WITH
TIMING AND LONGEVITY UNCERTAIN WILL KEEP WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

18Z UPDATE...

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CIGS. SCT SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE N-HALF OF S NEW ENGLAND. SW WINDS 10-15 KTS MAY GUST
TO 25 KT INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS LATE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS. SW WINDS WILL BE UP TO 40 KT AT 1000-2000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR TO BE INSERTED INTO TERMINALS...BUT IMPORTANT TO BE AWARE
OF.

TUESDAY...VFR. COULD STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG NEAR
THE S COAST...MAINLY EARLY. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
NW CT AND WESTERN MA...INCLUDING BDL/BAF AND IN THE BERKSHIRES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY SW-FLOW WITH 20 KT GUSTS AT TIMES. IFR STRATUS / FOG POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST. INCREASING CHANCES FOR -SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING
LATE WEDNESDAY TO W...MOST EVERYWHERE THURSDAY...CONCLUDING EARLY
FRIDAY. TEMPO MVFR-IFR WITH ANY ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SW WINDS...GUSTING UP TO 20 KT ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT.

TONIGHT...SW WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT. EXPECTING LOW LEVEL
INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT FROM MAKING IT DOWN TO
THE SEA SURFACE. SEAS BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
EVENING AND THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH
TUE.

TUESDAY...GUSTY SW WIND FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUES OVER THE
OUTER WATERS...AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. HAVE INCLUDED NANTUCKET SOUND IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR TUE AS WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 20 TO 25 KT THERE AS WELL.
A FEW FOG PATCHES WITH RESTRICTED VISIBILITY POSSIBLE ON THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

PERSISTENT SW-FETCH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS AT TIMES.
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH SWELL AND WIND-WAVE MOSTLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS BUT GETTING INTO THE S INNER SOUNDS. DENSE FOG ANTICIPATED
LENDING TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY RISE INTO THE 50S TOWARDS
THE END OF TODAY. SW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
EXPECTED...UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. FORECASTED MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL BE JUST ABOVE 30-PERCENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR...45 TO 55 PERCENT
ON THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE COD/ISLANDS.

WITH THE INCREASING HUMIDITY...THERE IS A DECREASED FIRE WEATHER
RISK SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING A STATEMENT AT THIS TIME.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER ON TUESDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE
RISING KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/GAF
NEAR TERM...RLG/GAF
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL/GAF
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...SIPPRELL/GAF
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251743
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
143 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES HAVE LARGELY COME TO AN END OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE EXCEPTION BEING A COUPLE OF SPOT SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS. AGAIN...NOT MUCH...IF ANY PRECIP IS
ACTUALLY HITTING THE GROUND. OVERALL...THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO THE SKY COVER AND WINDS. IN
TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 70S LOOK TO BE ON TRACK FOR HITTING
THE LOW TO MID 80S BY THE TIME DIURNAL HEATING IS OVER.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AND S/SW WINDS INCREASING
TO 30-35 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE S-COAST. BUFKIT SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND
GUSTS TO 20-28 MPH OVER LAND AREAS WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF 5 PM.
THE WIND GUSTS REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
DUE TO A PRONOUNCED INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT WILL HELP INCREASE
DEWPOINTS TO THE UPPER 50S AND ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S. A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 40
KNOTS AT 925 MB WILL BE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BUT THE AIR SHOULD
BE DECOUPLED ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRONG WIND GUSTS AT THE GROUND.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE
COD/ISLANDS. VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ALONG THE MA/NH
BORDER. AGAIN...MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

TUESDAY...S NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST
AIR FLOW AROUND A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING MAY THIN ALLOWING SUNSHINE FOR A TIME. IT WILL BE BREEZY
AND VERY WARM. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING IN THE 60S...IT WILL
NOT TAKE LONG FOR TEMPERATURES TO ZOOM INTO THE 80S...MAXING OUT
IN THE UPPER 80S ESPECIALLY IN THE CONNECTICUT AND MERRIMACK
VALLEYS...BUT STILL UPPER 60S AND 70S AT THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE COD/
ISLANDS. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA TO POP SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
WE HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY IN THOSE AREAS...BUT
REMAINING DRY IN EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
 - THREAT OF MARINE STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S COAST
 - SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY
 - THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER
 - POTENTIAL LULL IN ACTIVITY FRIDAY
 - ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND

*/ DISCUSSION...

TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
DEAMPLIFIES ALLOWING MID-LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SW-CONVERGENT FLOW AND RRQ OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET TO SLINK SE TOWARDS
SNE. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE. INITIAL ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS PA / UPSTATE NY BY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
FOCUS APPEARS TO BE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARALLEL WITH LOW-
LEVEL THETA-E/INSTABILITY AXES PRESSING E WITH THE WSW STEERING FLOW
INTO N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LIKELY SOME SEVERE
TO THE W. OUTCOMES UNCERTAIN FOR HERE. PER BUFKIT CAPPING INVERSION
ALONG WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR LINGERS. H925-85 SW-FLOW IS
DIVERGENT. SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY PUSHES E INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BUT LOSES ITS PUNCH AS IT DOES SO. SHOWERS POTENTIALLY LINGERING
INTO THE FOLLOWING MORNING. WITH ANTICIPATED ELEVATED INSTABILITY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OTHERWISE... WARM /
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH S-FLOW OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR N...THOUGH MID-
TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS MAY LIMIT HEATING. MARINE STRATUS / FOG
LIKELY TO BE AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR S/SE-
COASTAL COMMUNITIES AS MOISTURE POOLS BENEATH A STOUT WARM-DRY-
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

THURSDAY - THURSDAY NIGHT: MAIN DRIVING FORCE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
AND ATTENDANT JET-STREAK LIFTS NE RESULTING IN A COOL FRONT PUSHING
SE OUT OF CANADA TO BECOME DIFFUSE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IN
ADDITION TO POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER LEFT-OVER FROM WEDNESDAY PUTS INTO
QUESTION OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER MAY NOT DESTABILIZE...MID-LEVEL COOLING LENDING TO INCREASED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE SUGGESTION OF PERHAPS SOME MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING /IN ADDITION TO THE CONSENSUS OF DECENT THETA-E
AND INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS SNE/ YIELDS CONTINUED CHANCE SHOWER /
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. DECENT SHEAR SO A SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE BUT
HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE TOWARDS A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. PWATS IN EXCESS
OF 1.5-INCHES WITH FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS OF 11-12 KFT. CONTINUING
WITH A WARM-MUGGY THEME WITH RESPECT TO CONDITIONS AS WELL AS MARINE
STRATUS / FOG BEING AN ISSUE ALONG THE S/SE-COAST.

FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT: DISCREPANCIES AMONG FORECAST GUIDANCE. WHILE
THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS PRIME FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...
NOT A LOT OF FORCING APPARENT. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE
INFLUENTIAL AS RIDGING ENHANCES ALOFT EVER SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A
WEEKEND DISTURBANCE. BIGGEST DISCREPANCY CENTERS AROUND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY TO WHICH GFS BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST CAN DESTABILIZE.
WILL KEEP WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE PERIOD.

WEEKEND - EARLY NEXT WEEK: AGREED UPON THAT ENERGY DIVING S ROUND
THE N CANADIAN VORTEX MEETS UP WITH ENERGY OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS
PUSHING A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY S ACROSS THE NE CONUS. UNCLEAR AS
TO ITS EVOLUTION...WHETHER IT STALLS. FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BECOMES COMPLICATED. OF CERTAINTY IS THAT A PRIMED ENVIRONMENT LOOKS
TO EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BENEATH DEEP-LAYER FORCING.
THIS SHOULD YIELD LIKELY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BUT WITH
TIMING AND LONGEVITY UNCERTAIN WILL KEEP WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

18Z UPDATE...

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CIGS. SCT SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE N-HALF OF S NEW ENGLAND. SW WINDS 10-15 KTS MAY GUST
TO 25 KT INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS LATE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS. SW WINDS WILL BE UP TO 40 KT AT 1000-2000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR TO BE INSERTED INTO TERMINALS...BUT IMPORTANT TO BE AWARE
OF.

TUESDAY...VFR. COULD STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG NEAR
THE S COAST...MAINLY EARLY. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
NW CT AND WESTERN MA...INCLUDING BDL/BAF AND IN THE BERKSHIRES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY SW-FLOW WITH 20 KT GUSTS AT TIMES. IFR STRATUS / FOG POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST. INCREASING CHANCES FOR -SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING
LATE WEDNESDAY TO W...MOST EVERYWHERE THURSDAY...CONCLUDING EARLY
FRIDAY. TEMPO MVFR-IFR WITH ANY ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SW WINDS...GUSTING UP TO 20 KT ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT.

TONIGHT...SW WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT. EXPECTING LOW LEVEL
INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT FROM MAKING IT DOWN TO
THE SEA SURFACE. SEAS BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
EVENING AND THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH
TUE.

TUESDAY...GUSTY SW WIND FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUES OVER THE
OUTER WATERS...AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. HAVE INCLUDED NANTUCKET SOUND IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR TUE AS WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 20 TO 25 KT THERE AS WELL.
A FEW FOG PATCHES WITH RESTRICTED VISIBILITY POSSIBLE ON THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

PERSISTENT SW-FETCH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS AT TIMES.
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH SWELL AND WIND-WAVE MOSTLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS BUT GETTING INTO THE S INNER SOUNDS. DENSE FOG ANTICIPATED
LENDING TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY RISE INTO THE 50S TOWARDS
THE END OF TODAY. SW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
EXPECTED...UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. FORECASTED MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL BE JUST ABOVE 30-PERCENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR...45 TO 55 PERCENT
ON THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE COD/ISLANDS.

WITH THE INCREASING HUMIDITY...THERE IS A DECREASED FIRE WEATHER
RISK SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING A STATEMENT AT THIS TIME.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER ON TUESDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE
RISING KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/GAF
NEAR TERM...RLG/GAF
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL/GAF
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...SIPPRELL/GAF
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 251358 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
958 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PROVIDING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING LATE TODAY. WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
THICKER CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO NH AS WELL AS AREA OF LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THIS MORNING. SO FAR LITTLE IS MAKING IT TO THE
GROUND AND ACCORDING TO AREA SOUNDINGS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE STILL
BEFORE IT DOES WITH QUITE A LOT OF DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. ADJUSTED SKY COVER... HOURLY TEMPERATURES...
AS WELL AS TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES. THERE IS ROOM FOR PORTLAND
AND AREAS LIKE WISCASSET TO REACH 80S AS THEY ARE WARMING RAPIDLY
WITH THE HELP OF WEST WINDS. THEREFORE WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER
NAM FORECAST AND BROUGHT HIGHS UP A LITTLE IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

PREVIOUSLY...FORECAST FOR TODAY /AND TONIGHT/ WILL BE ABOUT
ONGOING WAA THRU THE ATMOSPHERE AS WARM HUMID AIR OVERRIDES THE
NOT QUITE AS WARM AND DEFINITELY DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER PART OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS DRY AIR...TDS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S...WILL INITIALLY PREVENT ANY RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND
AND SHOULD KEEP ALL BUT THE MTNS RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TODAY. CLOUDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE
STRONGEST WAA MOVES DOWNWARD THRU THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY. THIS
MORNING WILL MAINLY SEE THE CIRRUS THAT IS CURRENTLY OUT
THERE...AND LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY TRANSPARENT AT THIS TIME...SO
PARTLY SUNNY OR FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL FADE TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. INITIALLY THE WSW
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX US OUT AGAIN AS WELL...AND THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE BACK UP WELL INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S IN A FEW
SPOTS TODAY...ALTHOUGH MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SUNDAY
GIVEN THE CLOUDS.

GIVEN THE STRONG WAA AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU THE
DAY...CANNOT RULE A FEW SPRINKLES ALMOST ANYWHERE FALLING OUT OF
MID DECK...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP SEEM
UNLIKELY...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE WILL BE
BETTER FORCING AS THE 500 MB WAVE COMES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
AND BEGINS TO CLIP OUR NW CWA. ANY SHRA WILL BE WEAKER AS EVEN
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL NOT MOVE IN UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. SHRA
BREAK OUT IN THE NRN ZONES AND PARTS OF THE CT VLY THIS
EVENING...WITH MORE FREQUENT SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE MTNS IN THE
HOURS AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES THRU
THE NORTH AS WELL...AND CANNOT RULE A TSRA OR TWO. QPF IN THE
NORTH OVERALL THOUGH WILL ONLY EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH WHERE
CONVECTION DOES OCCUR. ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT AS WELL...BUT GIVEN LESS DYNAMIC FORCING
AND THE DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC...THESE MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
MODELS ARE INDICATING MORE QPF ALONG THE MID COAST...WHICH MAY BE
THE RESULT OF THE MARINE LYR MOVING IN LATE TODAY AND ALLOWING
MORE RAIN TO FALL TO THE SFC...BUT EVEN THIS WOULD ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

ON TUE ANY SHRA SHIFT OUT TO THE EAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE MORNING AND THE WARM AIR MIXES OUT ON S-SW WINDS AS SKIES
CLEAR OUT. HIGHS WILL SURGE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MANY
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH WILL ONLY TOP AROUND 80 IN THE MTNS AND ALONG
MOST OF THE COAST. THE MIDCOAST AND PENOBSCOT BAY COASTAL AREAS
WILL BE COOLEST IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFFSHORE...THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY RETREAT OFFSHORE...WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR INTO THRU SUNSET...THEN MVFR...AT TIMES IN SHRA
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS TEMPO IFR LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE A RETURN TO
VFR ON TUE.


LONG TERM...WED - FRI...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT SW FLOW PICKS UP AGAIN LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH WILL STAY BLO SCA CRITERIA. TUE WILL SEE SW FLOW COME
CLOSE TO SCA WINDS...AND SEAS WILL LKLY REACH 5 FT OFFSHORE
DURING THE DAY.


LONG TERM...WED - FRI...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES DROP OFF TO 35-45 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LVL
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. WILL STILL SEE SOME W-SW WINDS GUST
TO NEAR 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...SO ALTHOUGH BLO RED FLAG
CRITERIA...FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE ENHANCED A BIT ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS. GOOD RECOVERY AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED IN THE N TONIGHT...BUT WETTING RAINS ARE UNLIKELY. MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN ON TUESDAY...WITH MIN RH CLOSER TO 50
PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



000
FXUS61 KBOX 251357
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
957 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...

MADE UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR SKY COVER AS WELL AS WIND
GUSTS...INCREASING BOTH BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THERE REMAIN A
FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TREND. AS THEY ARE
OVER A FAIRLY DATA SPARSE REGION...NOT SURE IF ANY OF THE PRECIP
IS ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK.

THE CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH PRESENT...IS NOT EXPECTED TO BLOCK OUT
THE LATE-MAY SUNSHINE. THUS EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE 80S. 925 MB TEMPS HIT 17C ON SUNDAY AND ARE FORECAST TO HIT
20C THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE.
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S AND ON THE TIP OF CAPE ANN WHERE A
SW TO S WIND OFF THE COOL OCEAN WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES TO
THE 70S. THICKER CLOUD COVER COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK...BUT AM
THINKING THAT WOULD MAINLY BE OVER N NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE BETTER
LIFT RESIDES.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AND S/SW WINDS INCREASING
TO 30-35 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE S-COAST. BUFKIT SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND
GUSTS TO 20-28 MPH OVER LAND AREAS WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF 5 PM.
THE WIND GUSTS REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
DUE TO A PRONOUNCED INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT WILL HELP INCREASE
DEWPOINTS TO THE UPPER 50S AND ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S. A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 40
KNOTS AT 925 MB WILL BE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BUT THE AIR SHOULD
BE DECOUPLED ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRONG WIND GUSTS AT THE GROUND.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE
COD/ISLANDS. VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ALONG THE MA/NH
BORDER. AGAIN...MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

TUESDAY...S NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST
AIR FLOW AROUND A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING MAY THIN ALLOWING SUNSHINE FOR A TIME. IT WILL BE BREEZY
AND VERY WARM. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING IN THE 60S...IT WILL
NOT TAKE LONG FOR TEMPERATURES TO ZOOM INTO THE 80S...MAXING OUT
IN THE UPPER 80S ESPECIALLY IN THE CONNECTICUT AND MERRIMACK
VALLEYS...BUT STILL UPPER 60S AND 70S AT THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE COD/
ISLANDS. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA TO POP SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
WE HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY IN THOSE AREAS...BUT
REMAINING DRY IN EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
 - THREAT OF MARINE STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S COAST
 - SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY
 - THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER
 - POTENTIAL LULL IN ACTIVITY FRIDAY
 - ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND

*/ DISCUSSION...

TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
DEAMPLIFIES ALLOWING MID-LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SW-CONVERGENT FLOW AND RRQ OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET TO SLINK SE TOWARDS
SNE. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE. INITIAL ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS PA / UPSTATE NY BY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
FOCUS APPEARS TO BE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARALLEL WITH LOW-
LEVEL THETA-E/INSTABILITY AXES PRESSING E WITH THE WSW STEERING FLOW
INTO N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LIKELY SOME SEVERE
TO THE W. OUTCOMES UNCERTAIN FOR HERE. PER BUFKIT CAPPING INVERSION
ALONG WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR LINGERS. H925-85 SW-FLOW IS
DIVERGENT. SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY PUSHES E INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BUT LOSES ITS PUNCH AS IT DOES SO. SHOWERS POTENTIALLY LINGERING
INTO THE FOLLOWING MORNING. WITH ANTICIPATED ELEVATED INSTABILITY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OTHERWISE... WARM /
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH S-FLOW OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR N...THOUGH MID-
TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS MAY LIMIT HEATING. MARINE STRATUS / FOG
LIKELY TO BE AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR S/SE-
COASTAL COMMUNITIES AS MOISTURE POOLS BENEATH A STOUT WARM-DRY-
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

THURSDAY - THURSDAY NIGHT: MAIN DRIVING FORCE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
AND ATTENDANT JET-STREAK LIFTS NE RESULTING IN A COOL FRONT PUSHING
SE OUT OF CANADA TO BECOME DIFFUSE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IN
ADDITION TO POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER LEFT-OVER FROM WEDNESDAY PUTS INTO
QUESTION OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER MAY NOT DESTABILIZE...MID-LEVEL COOLING LENDING TO INCREASED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE SUGGESTION OF PERHAPS SOME MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING /IN ADDITION TO THE CONSENSUS OF DECENT THETA-E
AND INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS SNE/ YIELDS CONTINUED CHANCE SHOWER /
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. DECENT SHEAR SO A SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE BUT
HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE TOWARDS A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. PWATS IN EXCESS
OF 1.5-INCHES WITH FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS OF 11-12 KFT. CONTINUING
WITH A WARM-MUGGY THEME WITH RESPECT TO CONDITIONS AS WELL AS MARINE
STRATUS / FOG BEING AN ISSUE ALONG THE S/SE-COAST.

FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT: DISCREPANCIES AMONG FORECAST GUIDANCE. WHILE
THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS PRIME FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...
NOT A LOT OF FORCING APPARENT. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE
INFLUENTIAL AS RIDGING ENHANCES ALOFT EVER SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A
WEEKEND DISTURBANCE. BIGGEST DISCREPANCY CENTERS AROUND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY TO WHICH GFS BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST CAN DESTABILIZE.
WILL KEEP WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE PERIOD.

WEEKEND - EARLY NEXT WEEK: AGREED UPON THAT ENERGY DIVING S ROUND
THE N CANADIAN VORTEX MEETS UP WITH ENERGY OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS
PUSHING A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY S ACROSS THE NE CONUS. UNCLEAR AS
TO ITS EVOLUTION...WHETHER IT STALLS. FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BECOMES COMPLICATED. OF CERTAINTY IS THAT A PRIMED ENVIRONMENT LOOKS
TO EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BENEATH DEEP-LAYER FORCING.
THIS SHOULD YIELD LIKELY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BUT WITH
TIMING AND LONGEVITY UNCERTAIN WILL KEEP WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

12Z UPDATE...

TODAY...VFR. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CIGS. SCT SPRINKLES ACROSS
THE W-HALF OF NEW ENGLAND. SW WINDS 10-15 KTS MAY GUST TO 25 KT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR MIDDAY INTO AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS LATE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS. SW WINDS WILL BE UP TO 40 KT AT 1000-2000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR TO BE INSERTED INTO TERMINALS...BUT IMPORTANT TO BE AWARE
OF.

TUESDAY...VFR. COULD STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG NEAR
THE S COAST...MAINLY EARLY. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
NW CT AND WESTERN MA...INCLUDING BDL/BAF AND IN THE BERKSHIRES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY SW-FLOW WITH 20 KT GUSTS AT TIMES. IFR STRATUS / FOG POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST. INCREASING CHANCES FOR -SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING
LATE WEDNESDAY TO W...MOST EVERYWHERE THURSDAY...CONCLUDING EARLY
FRIDAY. TEMPO MVFR-IFR WITH ANY ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SW WINDS...GUSTING UP TO 20 KT ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT.

TONIGHT...SW WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT. EXPECTING LOW LEVEL
INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT FROM MAKING IT DOWN TO
THE SEA SURFACE. SEAS BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
EVENING AND THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH
TUE.

TUESDAY...GUSTY SW WIND FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUES OVER THE
OUTER WATERS...AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. HAVE INCLUDED NANTUCKET SOUND IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR TUE AS WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 20 TO 25 KT THERE AS WELL.
A FEW FOG PATCHES WITH RESTRICTED VISIBILITY POSSIBLE ON THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

PERSISTENT SW-FETCH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS AT TIMES.
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH SWELL AND WIND-WAVE MOSTLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS BUT GETTING INTO THE S INNER SOUNDS. DENSE FOG ANTICIPATED
LENDING TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY RISE INTO THE 50S TOWARDS
THE END OF TODAY. SW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
EXPECTED...UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. FORECASTED MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL BE JUST ABOVE 30-PERCENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR...45 TO 55 PERCENT
ON THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE COD/ISLANDS.

WITH THE INCREASING HUMIDITY...THERE IS A DECREASED FIRE WEATHER
RISK SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING A STATEMENT AT THIS TIME.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER ON TUESDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE
RISING KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/GAF
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL/GAF
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL/GAF
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/GAF
MARINE...SIPPRELL/GAF
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251131
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
731 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

730 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST MODIFIED TO ACCOUNT FOR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE W-HALF OF S
NEW ENGLAND. SURPRISING KNOWING HOW DRY THE MID- TO LOW-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE ARE PRESENTLY. FOCUS OF ACTIVITY ALONG A WARM-FRONT
NW-SE ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-
TO HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS.

THE CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH PRESENT...IS NOT EXPECTED TO BLOCK OUT
THE LATE-MAY SUNSHINE. THUS EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE 80S. 925 MB TEMPS HIT 17C ON SUNDAY AND ARE FORECAST TO HIT
20C THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE.
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WHERE IT WILL REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S AND ON THE TIP OF CAPE ANN WHERE A SW TO
S WIND OFF THE COOL OCEAN WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES TO THE
70S. THICKER CLOUD COVER COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK...BUT AM
THINKING THAT WOULD MAINLY BE OVER N NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE BETTER
LIFT RESIDES.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AND S/SW WINDS INCREASING
TO 30-35 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE S-COAST. BUFKIT SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND
GUSTS TO 20-28 MPH OVER LAND AREAS WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF 5 PM.
THE WIND GUSTS REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
DUE TO A PRONOUNCED INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT WILL HELP INCREASE
DEWPOINTS TO THE UPPER 50S AND ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S. A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 40
KNOTS AT 925 MB WILL BE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BUT THE AIR SHOULD
BE DECOUPLED ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRONG WIND GUSTS AT THE GROUND.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE
COD/ISLANDS. VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ALONG THE MA/NH
BORDER. AGAIN...MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

TUESDAY...S NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST
AIR FLOW AROUND A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING MAY THIN ALLOWING SUNSHINE FOR A TIME. IT WILL BE BREEZY
AND VERY WARM. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING IN THE 60S...IT WILL
NOT TAKE LONG FOR TEMPERATURES TO ZOOM INTO THE 80S...MAXING OUT
IN THE UPPER 80S ESPECIALLY IN THE CONNECTICUT AND MERRIMACK
VALLEYS...BUT STILL UPPER 60S AND 70S AT THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE COD/
ISLANDS. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA TO POP SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
WE HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY IN THOSE AREAS...BUT
REMAINING DRY IN EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
 - THREAT OF MARINE STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S COAST
 - SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY
 - THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER
 - POTENTIAL LULL IN ACTIVITY FRIDAY
 - ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND

*/ DISCUSSION...

TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
DEAMPLIFIES ALLOWING MID-LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SW-CONVERGENT FLOW AND RRQ OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET TO SLINK SE TOWARDS
SNE. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE. INITIAL ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS PA / UPSTATE NY BY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
FOCUS APPEARS TO BE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARALLEL WITH LOW-
LEVEL THETA-E/INSTABILITY AXES PRESSING E WITH THE WSW STEERING FLOW
INTO N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LIKELY SOME SEVERE
TO THE W. OUTCOMES UNCERTAIN FOR HERE. PER BUFKIT CAPPING INVERSION
ALONG WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR LINGERS. H925-85 SW-FLOW IS
DIVERGENT. SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY PUSHES E INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BUT LOSES ITS PUNCH AS IT DOES SO. SHOWERS POTENTIALLY LINGERING
INTO THE FOLLOWING MORNING. WITH ANTICIPATED ELEVATED INSTABILITY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OTHERWISE... WARM /
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH S-FLOW OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR N...THOUGH MID-
TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS MAY LIMIT HEATING. MARINE STRATUS / FOG
LIKELY TO BE AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR S/SE-
COASTAL COMMUNITIES AS MOISTURE POOLS BENEATH A STOUT WARM-DRY-
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

THURSDAY - THURSDAY NIGHT: MAIN DRIVING FORCE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
AND ATTENDANT JET-STREAK LIFTS NE RESULTING IN A COOL FRONT PUSHING
SE OUT OF CANADA TO BECOME DIFFUSE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IN
ADDITION TO POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER LEFT-OVER FROM WEDNESDAY PUTS INTO
QUESTION OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER MAY NOT DESTABILIZE...MID-LEVEL COOLING LENDING TO INCREASED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE SUGGESTION OF PERHAPS SOME MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING /IN ADDITION TO THE CONSENSUS OF DECENT THETA-E
AND INSTABILITY AXWS ACROSS SNE/ YIELDS CONTINUED CHANCE SHOWER /
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. DECENT SHEAR SO A SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE BUT
HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE TOWARDS A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. PWATS IN EXCESS
OF 1.5-INCHES WITH FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS OF 11-12 KFT. CONTINUING
WITH A WARM-MUGGY THEME WITH RESPECT TO CONDITIONS AS WELL AS MARINE
STRATUS / FOG BEING AN ISSUE ALONG THE S/SE-COAST.

FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT: DISCREPANCIES AMONG FORECAST GUIDANCE. WHILE
THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS PRIME FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...
NOT A LOT OF FORCING APPARENT. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE
INFLUENTIAL AS RIDGING ENHANCES ALOFT EVER SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A
WEEKEND DISTURBANCE. BIGGEST DISCREPANCY CENTERS AROUND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY TO WHICH GFS BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST CAN DESTABILIZE.
WILL KEEP WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE PERIOD.

WEEKEND - EARLY NEXT WEEK: AGREED UPON THAT ENERGY DIVING S ROUND
THE N CANADIAN VORTEX MEETS UP WITH ENERGY OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS
PUSHING A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY S ACROSS THE NE CONUS. UNCLEAR AS
TO ITS EVOLUTION...WHETHER IT STALLS. FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BECOMES COMPLICATED. OF CERTAINTY IS THAT A PRIMED ENVIRONMENT LOOKS
TO EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BENEATH DEEP-LAYER FORCING.
THIS SHOULD YIELD LIKELY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BUT WITH
TIMING AND LONGEVITY UNCERTAIN WILL KEEP WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

12Z UPDATE...

TODAY...VFR. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CIGS. SCT SPRINKLES ACROSS
THE W-HALF OF NEW ENGLAND. SW WINDS 10-15 KTS MAY GUST TO 25 KT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR MIDDAY INTO AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS LATE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS. SW WINDS WILL BE UP TO 40 KT AT 1000-2000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR TO BE INSERTED INTO TERMINALS...BUT IMPORTANT TO BE AWARE
OF.

TUESDAY...VFR. COULD STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG NEAR
THE S COAST...MAINLY EARLY. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
NW CT AND WESTERN MA...INCLUDING BDL/BAF AND IN THE BERKSHIRES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY SW-FLOW WITH 20 KT GUSTS AT TIMES. IFR STRATUS / FOG POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST. INCREASING CHANCES FOR -SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING
LATE WEDNESDAY TO W...MOST EVERYWHERE THURSDAY...CONCLUDING EARLY
FRIDAY. TEMPO MVFR-IFR WITH ANY ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

730 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

TODAY...SW WINDS...GUSTING UP TO 20 KT ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT.

TONIGHT...SW WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT. EXPECTING LOW LEVEL
INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT FROM MAKING IT DOWN TO
THE SEA SURFACE. SEAS BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
EVENING AND THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH
TUE.

TUESDAY...GUSTY SW WIND FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUES OVER THE
OUTER WATERS...AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. HAVE INCLUDED NANTUCKET SOUND IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR TUE AS WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 20 TO 25 KT THERE AS WELL.
A FEW FOG PATCHES WITH RESTRICTED VISIBILITY POSSIBLE ON THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

PERSISTENT SW-FETCH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS AT TIMES.
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH SWELL AND WIND-WAVE MOSTLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS BUT GETTING INTO THE S INNER SOUNDS. DENSE FOG ANTICIPATED
LENDING TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY RISE INTO THE 50S TOWARDS
THE END OF TODAY. SW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
EXPECTED...UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. FORECASTED MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL BE JUST ABOVE 30-PERCENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR...45 TO 55 PERCENT
ON THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE COD/ISLANDS.

WITH THE INCREASING HUMIDITY...THERE IS A DECREASED FIRE WEATHER
RISK SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING A STATEMENT AT THIS TIME.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER ON TUESDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE
RISING KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/GAF
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/GAF
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL/GAF
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/GAF
MARINE...SIPPRELL/GAF
FIRE WEATHER...WFO BOX STAFF



000
FXUS61 KGYX 251022
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
622 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PROVIDING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING LATE TODAY. WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
620 AM...DECIDED TO OFFICIALLY ADD SPKLS TO THE FORECAST AS THIS
WAVE OF GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES THRU THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. IT WILL STILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH THE GROUND...LET
ALONE MEASURE...BUT GETTING SOME 10SM -RA OBS FROM THE WEST...SO
ADDED JUST AS HEADS UP. OTHERWISE FORECAST MOSTLY UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUSLY...FORECAST FOR TODAY /AND TONIGHT/ WILL BE ABOUT
ONGOING WAA THRU THE ATMOSPHERE AS WARM HUMID AIR OVERRIDES THE
NOT QUITE AS WARM AND DEFINITELY DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER PART OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS DRY AIR...TDS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S...WILL INITIALLY PREVENT ANY RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND
AND SHOULD KEEP ALL BUT THE MTNS RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TODAY. CLOUDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE
STRONGEST WAA MOVES DOWNWARD THRU THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY. THIS
MORNING WILL MAINLY SEE THE CIRRUS THAT IS CURRENTLY OUT
THERE...AND LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY TRANSPARENT AT THIS TIME...SO
PARTLY SUNNY OR FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL FADE TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. INITIALLY THE WSW
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX US OUT AGAIN AS WELL...AND THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE BACK UP WELL INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S IN A FEW
SPOTS TODAY...ALTHOUGH MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SUNDAY
GIVEN THE CLOUDS.

GIVEN THE STRONG WAA AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU THE
DAY...CANNOT RULE A FEW SPKLS ALMOST ANYWHERE FALLING OUT OF MID
DECK...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP SEEM
UNLIKELY...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE WILL BE
BETTER FORCING AS THE 500 MB WAVE COMES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
AND BEGINS TO CLIP OUR NW CWA. ANY SHRA WILL BE WEAKER AS EVEN
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL NOT MOVE IN UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. SHRA
BREAK OUT IN THE NRN ZONES AND PARTS OF THE CT VLY THIS
EVENING...WITH MORE FREQUENT SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE MTNS IN THE
HOURS AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES THRU
THE NORTH AS WELL...AND CANNOT RULE A TSRA OR TWO. QPF IN THE
NORTH OVERALL THOUGH WILL ONLY EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH WHERE
CONVECTION DOES OCCUR. ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT AS WELL...BUT GIVEN LESS DYNAMIC FORCING
AND THE DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC...THESE MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
MODELS ARE INDICATING MORE QPF ALONG THE MID COAST...WHICH MAY BE
THE RESULT OF THE MARINE LYR MOVING IN LATE TODAY AND ALLOWINGMORE
RAIN TO FALL TO THE SFC...BUT EVEN THIS WOULD ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHSOF AN INCH.

ON TUE ANY SHRA SHIFT OUT TO THE EAST DURING THE FIRSTS HALF OF
THE MORNING AND THE WARM AIR MIXES OUT ON S-SW WINDS AS SKIES
CLEAR OUT. HIGHS WILL SURGE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MANY
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH WILL ONLY TOP AROUND 80 IN THE MTNS AND ALONG
MOST OF THE COAST. THE MID COAST NECKS AND PENOBSCOT BAY COASTAL
AREAS WILL BE COOLEST IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFFSHORE...THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY RETREAT OFFSHORE...WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR INTO THRU SUNSET...THEN MVFR...AT TIMES IN SHRA
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS TEMPO IFR LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE A RETURN TO
VFR ON TUE.


LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT SW FLOW PICKS UP AGAIN LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH WILL STAY BLO SCA CRITERIA. TUE WILL SEE SW FLOW COME
CLOSE TO SCA WINDS...AND SEAS WILL LKLY REACH 5 FT OFFSHORE
DURING THE DAY.


LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES DROP OFF TO 35-45 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LVL
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. WILL STILL SEE SOME W-SW WINDS GUST
TO NEAR 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...SO ALTHOUGH BLO RED FLAG
CRITERIA...FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE ENHANCED A BIT ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS. GOOD RECOVERY AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED IN THE N TONIGHT...BUT WETTING RAINS ARE UNLIKELY. MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN ON TUESDAY...WITH MIN RH CLOSER TO 50
PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 251022
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
622 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PROVIDING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING LATE TODAY. WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
620 AM...DECIDED TO OFFICIALLY ADD SPKLS TO THE FORECAST AS THIS
WAVE OF GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES THRU THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. IT WILL STILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH THE GROUND...LET
ALONE MEASURE...BUT GETTING SOME 10SM -RA OBS FROM THE WEST...SO
ADDED JUST AS HEADS UP. OTHERWISE FORECAST MOSTLY UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUSLY...FORECAST FOR TODAY /AND TONIGHT/ WILL BE ABOUT
ONGOING WAA THRU THE ATMOSPHERE AS WARM HUMID AIR OVERRIDES THE
NOT QUITE AS WARM AND DEFINITELY DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER PART OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS DRY AIR...TDS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S...WILL INITIALLY PREVENT ANY RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND
AND SHOULD KEEP ALL BUT THE MTNS RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TODAY. CLOUDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE
STRONGEST WAA MOVES DOWNWARD THRU THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY. THIS
MORNING WILL MAINLY SEE THE CIRRUS THAT IS CURRENTLY OUT
THERE...AND LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY TRANSPARENT AT THIS TIME...SO
PARTLY SUNNY OR FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL FADE TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. INITIALLY THE WSW
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX US OUT AGAIN AS WELL...AND THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE BACK UP WELL INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S IN A FEW
SPOTS TODAY...ALTHOUGH MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SUNDAY
GIVEN THE CLOUDS.

GIVEN THE STRONG WAA AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU THE
DAY...CANNOT RULE A FEW SPKLS ALMOST ANYWHERE FALLING OUT OF MID
DECK...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP SEEM
UNLIKELY...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE WILL BE
BETTER FORCING AS THE 500 MB WAVE COMES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
AND BEGINS TO CLIP OUR NW CWA. ANY SHRA WILL BE WEAKER AS EVEN
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL NOT MOVE IN UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. SHRA
BREAK OUT IN THE NRN ZONES AND PARTS OF THE CT VLY THIS
EVENING...WITH MORE FREQUENT SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE MTNS IN THE
HOURS AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES THRU
THE NORTH AS WELL...AND CANNOT RULE A TSRA OR TWO. QPF IN THE
NORTH OVERALL THOUGH WILL ONLY EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH WHERE
CONVECTION DOES OCCUR. ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT AS WELL...BUT GIVEN LESS DYNAMIC FORCING
AND THE DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC...THESE MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
MODELS ARE INDICATING MORE QPF ALONG THE MID COAST...WHICH MAY BE
THE RESULT OF THE MARINE LYR MOVING IN LATE TODAY AND ALLOWINGMORE
RAIN TO FALL TO THE SFC...BUT EVEN THIS WOULD ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHSOF AN INCH.

ON TUE ANY SHRA SHIFT OUT TO THE EAST DURING THE FIRSTS HALF OF
THE MORNING AND THE WARM AIR MIXES OUT ON S-SW WINDS AS SKIES
CLEAR OUT. HIGHS WILL SURGE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MANY
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH WILL ONLY TOP AROUND 80 IN THE MTNS AND ALONG
MOST OF THE COAST. THE MID COAST NECKS AND PENOBSCOT BAY COASTAL
AREAS WILL BE COOLEST IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFFSHORE...THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY RETREAT OFFSHORE...WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR INTO THRU SUNSET...THEN MVFR...AT TIMES IN SHRA
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS TEMPO IFR LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE A RETURN TO
VFR ON TUE.


LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT SW FLOW PICKS UP AGAIN LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH WILL STAY BLO SCA CRITERIA. TUE WILL SEE SW FLOW COME
CLOSE TO SCA WINDS...AND SEAS WILL LKLY REACH 5 FT OFFSHORE
DURING THE DAY.


LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES DROP OFF TO 35-45 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LVL
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. WILL STILL SEE SOME W-SW WINDS GUST
TO NEAR 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...SO ALTHOUGH BLO RED FLAG
CRITERIA...FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE ENHANCED A BIT ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS. GOOD RECOVERY AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED IN THE N TONIGHT...BUT WETTING RAINS ARE UNLIKELY. MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN ON TUESDAY...WITH MIN RH CLOSER TO 50
PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 251022
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
622 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PROVIDING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING LATE TODAY. WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
620 AM...DECIDED TO OFFICIALLY ADD SPKLS TO THE FORECAST AS THIS
WAVE OF GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES THRU THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. IT WILL STILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH THE GROUND...LET
ALONE MEASURE...BUT GETTING SOME 10SM -RA OBS FROM THE WEST...SO
ADDED JUST AS HEADS UP. OTHERWISE FORECAST MOSTLY UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUSLY...FORECAST FOR TODAY /AND TONIGHT/ WILL BE ABOUT
ONGOING WAA THRU THE ATMOSPHERE AS WARM HUMID AIR OVERRIDES THE
NOT QUITE AS WARM AND DEFINITELY DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER PART OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS DRY AIR...TDS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S...WILL INITIALLY PREVENT ANY RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND
AND SHOULD KEEP ALL BUT THE MTNS RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TODAY. CLOUDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE
STRONGEST WAA MOVES DOWNWARD THRU THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY. THIS
MORNING WILL MAINLY SEE THE CIRRUS THAT IS CURRENTLY OUT
THERE...AND LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY TRANSPARENT AT THIS TIME...SO
PARTLY SUNNY OR FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL FADE TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. INITIALLY THE WSW
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX US OUT AGAIN AS WELL...AND THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE BACK UP WELL INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S IN A FEW
SPOTS TODAY...ALTHOUGH MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SUNDAY
GIVEN THE CLOUDS.

GIVEN THE STRONG WAA AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU THE
DAY...CANNOT RULE A FEW SPKLS ALMOST ANYWHERE FALLING OUT OF MID
DECK...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP SEEM
UNLIKELY...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE WILL BE
BETTER FORCING AS THE 500 MB WAVE COMES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
AND BEGINS TO CLIP OUR NW CWA. ANY SHRA WILL BE WEAKER AS EVEN
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL NOT MOVE IN UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. SHRA
BREAK OUT IN THE NRN ZONES AND PARTS OF THE CT VLY THIS
EVENING...WITH MORE FREQUENT SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE MTNS IN THE
HOURS AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES THRU
THE NORTH AS WELL...AND CANNOT RULE A TSRA OR TWO. QPF IN THE
NORTH OVERALL THOUGH WILL ONLY EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH WHERE
CONVECTION DOES OCCUR. ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT AS WELL...BUT GIVEN LESS DYNAMIC FORCING
AND THE DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC...THESE MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
MODELS ARE INDICATING MORE QPF ALONG THE MID COAST...WHICH MAY BE
THE RESULT OF THE MARINE LYR MOVING IN LATE TODAY AND ALLOWINGMORE
RAIN TO FALL TO THE SFC...BUT EVEN THIS WOULD ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHSOF AN INCH.

ON TUE ANY SHRA SHIFT OUT TO THE EAST DURING THE FIRSTS HALF OF
THE MORNING AND THE WARM AIR MIXES OUT ON S-SW WINDS AS SKIES
CLEAR OUT. HIGHS WILL SURGE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MANY
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH WILL ONLY TOP AROUND 80 IN THE MTNS AND ALONG
MOST OF THE COAST. THE MID COAST NECKS AND PENOBSCOT BAY COASTAL
AREAS WILL BE COOLEST IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFFSHORE...THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY RETREAT OFFSHORE...WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR INTO THRU SUNSET...THEN MVFR...AT TIMES IN SHRA
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS TEMPO IFR LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE A RETURN TO
VFR ON TUE.


LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT SW FLOW PICKS UP AGAIN LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH WILL STAY BLO SCA CRITERIA. TUE WILL SEE SW FLOW COME
CLOSE TO SCA WINDS...AND SEAS WILL LKLY REACH 5 FT OFFSHORE
DURING THE DAY.


LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES DROP OFF TO 35-45 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LVL
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. WILL STILL SEE SOME W-SW WINDS GUST
TO NEAR 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...SO ALTHOUGH BLO RED FLAG
CRITERIA...FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE ENHANCED A BIT ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS. GOOD RECOVERY AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED IN THE N TONIGHT...BUT WETTING RAINS ARE UNLIKELY. MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN ON TUESDAY...WITH MIN RH CLOSER TO 50
PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 251022
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
622 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PROVIDING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING LATE TODAY. WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
620 AM...DECIDED TO OFFICIALLY ADD SPKLS TO THE FORECAST AS THIS
WAVE OF GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES THRU THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. IT WILL STILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH THE GROUND...LET
ALONE MEASURE...BUT GETTING SOME 10SM -RA OBS FROM THE WEST...SO
ADDED JUST AS HEADS UP. OTHERWISE FORECAST MOSTLY UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUSLY...FORECAST FOR TODAY /AND TONIGHT/ WILL BE ABOUT
ONGOING WAA THRU THE ATMOSPHERE AS WARM HUMID AIR OVERRIDES THE
NOT QUITE AS WARM AND DEFINITELY DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER PART OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS DRY AIR...TDS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S...WILL INITIALLY PREVENT ANY RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND
AND SHOULD KEEP ALL BUT THE MTNS RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TODAY. CLOUDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE
STRONGEST WAA MOVES DOWNWARD THRU THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY. THIS
MORNING WILL MAINLY SEE THE CIRRUS THAT IS CURRENTLY OUT
THERE...AND LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY TRANSPARENT AT THIS TIME...SO
PARTLY SUNNY OR FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL FADE TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. INITIALLY THE WSW
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX US OUT AGAIN AS WELL...AND THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE BACK UP WELL INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S IN A FEW
SPOTS TODAY...ALTHOUGH MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SUNDAY
GIVEN THE CLOUDS.

GIVEN THE STRONG WAA AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU THE
DAY...CANNOT RULE A FEW SPKLS ALMOST ANYWHERE FALLING OUT OF MID
DECK...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP SEEM
UNLIKELY...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE WILL BE
BETTER FORCING AS THE 500 MB WAVE COMES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
AND BEGINS TO CLIP OUR NW CWA. ANY SHRA WILL BE WEAKER AS EVEN
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL NOT MOVE IN UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. SHRA
BREAK OUT IN THE NRN ZONES AND PARTS OF THE CT VLY THIS
EVENING...WITH MORE FREQUENT SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE MTNS IN THE
HOURS AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES THRU
THE NORTH AS WELL...AND CANNOT RULE A TSRA OR TWO. QPF IN THE
NORTH OVERALL THOUGH WILL ONLY EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH WHERE
CONVECTION DOES OCCUR. ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT AS WELL...BUT GIVEN LESS DYNAMIC FORCING
AND THE DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC...THESE MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
MODELS ARE INDICATING MORE QPF ALONG THE MID COAST...WHICH MAY BE
THE RESULT OF THE MARINE LYR MOVING IN LATE TODAY AND ALLOWINGMORE
RAIN TO FALL TO THE SFC...BUT EVEN THIS WOULD ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHSOF AN INCH.

ON TUE ANY SHRA SHIFT OUT TO THE EAST DURING THE FIRSTS HALF OF
THE MORNING AND THE WARM AIR MIXES OUT ON S-SW WINDS AS SKIES
CLEAR OUT. HIGHS WILL SURGE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MANY
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH WILL ONLY TOP AROUND 80 IN THE MTNS AND ALONG
MOST OF THE COAST. THE MID COAST NECKS AND PENOBSCOT BAY COASTAL
AREAS WILL BE COOLEST IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFFSHORE...THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY RETREAT OFFSHORE...WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR INTO THRU SUNSET...THEN MVFR...AT TIMES IN SHRA
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS TEMPO IFR LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE A RETURN TO
VFR ON TUE.


LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT SW FLOW PICKS UP AGAIN LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH WILL STAY BLO SCA CRITERIA. TUE WILL SEE SW FLOW COME
CLOSE TO SCA WINDS...AND SEAS WILL LKLY REACH 5 FT OFFSHORE
DURING THE DAY.


LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES DROP OFF TO 35-45 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LVL
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. WILL STILL SEE SOME W-SW WINDS GUST
TO NEAR 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...SO ALTHOUGH BLO RED FLAG
CRITERIA...FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE ENHANCED A BIT ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS. GOOD RECOVERY AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED IN THE N TONIGHT...BUT WETTING RAINS ARE UNLIKELY. MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN ON TUESDAY...WITH MIN RH CLOSER TO 50
PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 251022
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
622 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PROVIDING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING LATE TODAY. WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
620 AM...DECIDED TO OFFICIALLY ADD SPKLS TO THE FORECAST AS THIS
WAVE OF GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES THRU THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. IT WILL STILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH THE GROUND...LET
ALONE MEASURE...BUT GETTING SOME 10SM -RA OBS FROM THE WEST...SO
ADDED JUST AS HEADS UP. OTHERWISE FORECAST MOSTLY UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUSLY...FORECAST FOR TODAY /AND TONIGHT/ WILL BE ABOUT
ONGOING WAA THRU THE ATMOSPHERE AS WARM HUMID AIR OVERRIDES THE
NOT QUITE AS WARM AND DEFINITELY DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER PART OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS DRY AIR...TDS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S...WILL INITIALLY PREVENT ANY RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND
AND SHOULD KEEP ALL BUT THE MTNS RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TODAY. CLOUDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE
STRONGEST WAA MOVES DOWNWARD THRU THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY. THIS
MORNING WILL MAINLY SEE THE CIRRUS THAT IS CURRENTLY OUT
THERE...AND LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY TRANSPARENT AT THIS TIME...SO
PARTLY SUNNY OR FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL FADE TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. INITIALLY THE WSW
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX US OUT AGAIN AS WELL...AND THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE BACK UP WELL INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S IN A FEW
SPOTS TODAY...ALTHOUGH MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SUNDAY
GIVEN THE CLOUDS.

GIVEN THE STRONG WAA AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU THE
DAY...CANNOT RULE A FEW SPKLS ALMOST ANYWHERE FALLING OUT OF MID
DECK...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP SEEM
UNLIKELY...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE WILL BE
BETTER FORCING AS THE 500 MB WAVE COMES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
AND BEGINS TO CLIP OUR NW CWA. ANY SHRA WILL BE WEAKER AS EVEN
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL NOT MOVE IN UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. SHRA
BREAK OUT IN THE NRN ZONES AND PARTS OF THE CT VLY THIS
EVENING...WITH MORE FREQUENT SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE MTNS IN THE
HOURS AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES THRU
THE NORTH AS WELL...AND CANNOT RULE A TSRA OR TWO. QPF IN THE
NORTH OVERALL THOUGH WILL ONLY EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH WHERE
CONVECTION DOES OCCUR. ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT AS WELL...BUT GIVEN LESS DYNAMIC FORCING
AND THE DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC...THESE MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
MODELS ARE INDICATING MORE QPF ALONG THE MID COAST...WHICH MAY BE
THE RESULT OF THE MARINE LYR MOVING IN LATE TODAY AND ALLOWINGMORE
RAIN TO FALL TO THE SFC...BUT EVEN THIS WOULD ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHSOF AN INCH.

ON TUE ANY SHRA SHIFT OUT TO THE EAST DURING THE FIRSTS HALF OF
THE MORNING AND THE WARM AIR MIXES OUT ON S-SW WINDS AS SKIES
CLEAR OUT. HIGHS WILL SURGE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MANY
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH WILL ONLY TOP AROUND 80 IN THE MTNS AND ALONG
MOST OF THE COAST. THE MID COAST NECKS AND PENOBSCOT BAY COASTAL
AREAS WILL BE COOLEST IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFFSHORE...THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY RETREAT OFFSHORE...WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR INTO THRU SUNSET...THEN MVFR...AT TIMES IN SHRA
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS TEMPO IFR LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE A RETURN TO
VFR ON TUE.


LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT SW FLOW PICKS UP AGAIN LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH WILL STAY BLO SCA CRITERIA. TUE WILL SEE SW FLOW COME
CLOSE TO SCA WINDS...AND SEAS WILL LKLY REACH 5 FT OFFSHORE
DURING THE DAY.


LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES DROP OFF TO 35-45 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LVL
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. WILL STILL SEE SOME W-SW WINDS GUST
TO NEAR 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...SO ALTHOUGH BLO RED FLAG
CRITERIA...FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE ENHANCED A BIT ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS. GOOD RECOVERY AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED IN THE N TONIGHT...BUT WETTING RAINS ARE UNLIKELY. MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN ON TUESDAY...WITH MIN RH CLOSER TO 50
PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...



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