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000
FXUS61 KBOX 231136
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
736 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE EARLY HALF OF
THE DAY TODAY...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL INTO
SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND IS LIKELY DURING THE EARLY
AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM QUEBEC
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A LOW CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
730 AM UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. TWEAKED SKY
COVER TO REFLECT LATEST SATELLITE DATA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

GRADUALLY...UPPER LVL SUBSIDENCE IS TAKING OVER THE COLUMN. THE
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CONTINUES TO
MANIFEST ITSELF AS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS WHICH STREAMS FROM THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACK...GREEN AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. THESE
ARE ALSO LIKELY THE RESULT OF ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE WHICH...PER
LATEST WV IMAGERY IS SLIDING OUT OF QUEBEC AT THE TIME OF THIS
WRITING.

IT IS THIS LAST FEATURE WHICH WILL DEFINE THE EARLY HOURS OF THE
DAY TODAY. MODELS INDICATE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND UPPER LVL COOLING
TO SUPPORT A POP SHOWER OR TWO. NOT EXPECTING THESE SHOWERS TO BE
NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUS DAYS...AS THIS WAVE IS ALSO
USHERING IN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WHERE PWATS DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW
1.0 INCHES. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...SHIFTING FROM E-W AS INVERTED RIDGING REGAINS CONTROL FROM
THE E. THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER TO FULLY
DISSIPATE...INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E-SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHERE MARINE FLOW WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN
SOME LOWER LVL MOISTURE.

GIVEN THE GRADUAL EXPECTED CLEARING...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE A BIT
WARMER THAN FRI...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY LOW-MID 70S. NE
WINDS COULD BE BREEZY AS WELL...WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN MA AND RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
AS HEIGHTS RISE FROM LONGWAVE TROF MOVING WELL SE OF THE
REGION...SFC INVERTED RIDGE WILL BACK IN FROM THE NE. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
MAYBE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW MA AND SRN NH. ALSO NOTE THAT
SFC PRES GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN. THEREFORE...COULD ACTUALLY SEE
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND GIVEN THAT DWPTS WILL FALL THROUGH
THE DAY BACK INTO THE 50S...WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERAL MINS IN THE
LOW-MID 50S AS WELL. IF...THERE IS ENOUGH CLEARING IN THE NW
VALLEYS...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME 40S ARE SEEN AS WELL. HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED THIS IN THE MINS FOR THIS UPDATE. DRIER AIR IS LIKELY
TO LIMIT FOG SOMEWHAT...BUT WITH RADIATIONAL PROCESSES SOME PATCHY
FOG CAN/T BE RULED OUT.

SUN...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE DAY. ASIDE FROM DIURNAL
CU IN THE INTERIOR...PLENTY OF MIXING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO
REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S THANKS TO H85 TEMPS
INCREASING TO ABOUT +12C. ONLY CAVEAT ARE NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS
WHERE SEA BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE THANKS TO A WEAK PRES GRADIENT.
CURIOUS...SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING A CONVECTIVE QPF BULLSEYE
NEAR THE BERKSHIRES WHICH MAY HAVE TO BE WATCHED...BUT FOR NOW
FEEL THAT THE DRIER AIR SHOULD OVERCOME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD
* WARMER...MORE HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN AROUND EARLY TO MIDDLE
  PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK
* UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES LATE NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
  FROM QUEBEC

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...23/00Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RATHER
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
DETAILS START TO BECOME MURKY LATE WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE
SOME COMMON THEMES IN THE OVERALL SOLUTIONS. SINCE SOME OF THESE
DETAILS INVOLVE A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COAST...
THE IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO SMOOTH OVER
THE MINOR DIFFERENCES.  STILL USED A BLEND...LEANING MORE HEAVILY
UPON ENSEMBLE MEANS...AFTER WEDNESDAY DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY
ONE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION.  ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE SIMILAR
TIMING...WITH THE GFS REMAINING THE SLOWEST. GEFS MEAN SOLUTION IS
CLOSER TO THE TIMING FROM THE INTERNATIONAL MODELS.

DETAILS...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER...LINGERING OVERHEAD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE SLIPPING
SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...LOCAL SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP...KEEPING IT A
BIT COOLER ALONG THE SHORELINE. SOME CLOUDS MAY START TO MOVE IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT TIMING IN QUESTION.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
FOR NOW...MAY SEE A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRY TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF QUEBEC.
QUESTIONS ABOUND WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...AS WELL AS HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH...NEITHER EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO SET ANY SPEED
RECORDS...NOR MOVE TOO FAR SOUTH OF OUR REGION IT IF MAKES IT THAT
FAR.

DID KEEP ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WITH THIS...BUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. CURRENT FORECAST
SUGGESTS A DRIER AND COOLER DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH MID DAY...
PERIODS OF MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR IN LOW CIGS WILL LIFT QUICKLY
THIS MORNING. SOME AREAS REMAIN VFR. MOST TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR
BY MID DAY AND THEN REMAIN SO. WINDS MAINLY NE.

AFTER MID DAY TODAY...
MAINLY VFR. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT MAINLY AT
TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN EXACT TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT. SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...SOME GUSTS MAY APPROACH
15-20 KT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH
4 FT ON THE OUTERMOST SRN WATERS AS WELL. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER UNTIL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHEN HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS. LIGHTER...MORE N WINDS EXPECTED ON SUN.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS. LOW PROBABILITY OF
PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT
ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY FROM
INCREASING SOUTH SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 231136
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
736 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE EARLY HALF OF
THE DAY TODAY...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL INTO
SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND IS LIKELY DURING THE EARLY
AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM QUEBEC
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A LOW CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
730 AM UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. TWEAKED SKY
COVER TO REFLECT LATEST SATELLITE DATA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

GRADUALLY...UPPER LVL SUBSIDENCE IS TAKING OVER THE COLUMN. THE
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CONTINUES TO
MANIFEST ITSELF AS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS WHICH STREAMS FROM THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACK...GREEN AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. THESE
ARE ALSO LIKELY THE RESULT OF ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE WHICH...PER
LATEST WV IMAGERY IS SLIDING OUT OF QUEBEC AT THE TIME OF THIS
WRITING.

IT IS THIS LAST FEATURE WHICH WILL DEFINE THE EARLY HOURS OF THE
DAY TODAY. MODELS INDICATE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND UPPER LVL COOLING
TO SUPPORT A POP SHOWER OR TWO. NOT EXPECTING THESE SHOWERS TO BE
NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUS DAYS...AS THIS WAVE IS ALSO
USHERING IN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WHERE PWATS DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW
1.0 INCHES. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...SHIFTING FROM E-W AS INVERTED RIDGING REGAINS CONTROL FROM
THE E. THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER TO FULLY
DISSIPATE...INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E-SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHERE MARINE FLOW WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN
SOME LOWER LVL MOISTURE.

GIVEN THE GRADUAL EXPECTED CLEARING...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE A BIT
WARMER THAN FRI...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY LOW-MID 70S. NE
WINDS COULD BE BREEZY AS WELL...WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN MA AND RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
AS HEIGHTS RISE FROM LONGWAVE TROF MOVING WELL SE OF THE
REGION...SFC INVERTED RIDGE WILL BACK IN FROM THE NE. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
MAYBE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW MA AND SRN NH. ALSO NOTE THAT
SFC PRES GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN. THEREFORE...COULD ACTUALLY SEE
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND GIVEN THAT DWPTS WILL FALL THROUGH
THE DAY BACK INTO THE 50S...WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERAL MINS IN THE
LOW-MID 50S AS WELL. IF...THERE IS ENOUGH CLEARING IN THE NW
VALLEYS...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME 40S ARE SEEN AS WELL. HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED THIS IN THE MINS FOR THIS UPDATE. DRIER AIR IS LIKELY
TO LIMIT FOG SOMEWHAT...BUT WITH RADIATIONAL PROCESSES SOME PATCHY
FOG CAN/T BE RULED OUT.

SUN...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE DAY. ASIDE FROM DIURNAL
CU IN THE INTERIOR...PLENTY OF MIXING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO
REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S THANKS TO H85 TEMPS
INCREASING TO ABOUT +12C. ONLY CAVEAT ARE NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS
WHERE SEA BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE THANKS TO A WEAK PRES GRADIENT.
CURIOUS...SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING A CONVECTIVE QPF BULLSEYE
NEAR THE BERKSHIRES WHICH MAY HAVE TO BE WATCHED...BUT FOR NOW
FEEL THAT THE DRIER AIR SHOULD OVERCOME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD
* WARMER...MORE HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN AROUND EARLY TO MIDDLE
  PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK
* UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES LATE NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
  FROM QUEBEC

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...23/00Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RATHER
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
DETAILS START TO BECOME MURKY LATE WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE
SOME COMMON THEMES IN THE OVERALL SOLUTIONS. SINCE SOME OF THESE
DETAILS INVOLVE A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COAST...
THE IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO SMOOTH OVER
THE MINOR DIFFERENCES.  STILL USED A BLEND...LEANING MORE HEAVILY
UPON ENSEMBLE MEANS...AFTER WEDNESDAY DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY
ONE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION.  ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE SIMILAR
TIMING...WITH THE GFS REMAINING THE SLOWEST. GEFS MEAN SOLUTION IS
CLOSER TO THE TIMING FROM THE INTERNATIONAL MODELS.

DETAILS...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER...LINGERING OVERHEAD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE SLIPPING
SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...LOCAL SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP...KEEPING IT A
BIT COOLER ALONG THE SHORELINE. SOME CLOUDS MAY START TO MOVE IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT TIMING IN QUESTION.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
FOR NOW...MAY SEE A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRY TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF QUEBEC.
QUESTIONS ABOUND WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...AS WELL AS HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH...NEITHER EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO SET ANY SPEED
RECORDS...NOR MOVE TOO FAR SOUTH OF OUR REGION IT IF MAKES IT THAT
FAR.

DID KEEP ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WITH THIS...BUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. CURRENT FORECAST
SUGGESTS A DRIER AND COOLER DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH MID DAY...
PERIODS OF MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR IN LOW CIGS WILL LIFT QUICKLY
THIS MORNING. SOME AREAS REMAIN VFR. MOST TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR
BY MID DAY AND THEN REMAIN SO. WINDS MAINLY NE.

AFTER MID DAY TODAY...
MAINLY VFR. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT MAINLY AT
TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN EXACT TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT. SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...SOME GUSTS MAY APPROACH
15-20 KT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH
4 FT ON THE OUTERMOST SRN WATERS AS WELL. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER UNTIL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHEN HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS. LIGHTER...MORE N WINDS EXPECTED ON SUN.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS. LOW PROBABILITY OF
PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT
ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY FROM
INCREASING SOUTH SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KGYX 231115 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
715 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AND WILL SETTLE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND WILL SWING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND
TO LOWER POPS. PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BUT SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT
GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. A LARGE TROUGH REMAINS
CENTERED OVERHEAD AND TO OUR EAST. THE TROUGH BREAKS DOWN AS
RIDGING EDGES IN BY SUNDAY. AS WE WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...WE WILL SEE A STEADY STREAM OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS.

SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS WITH
THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING...TERRAIN INFLUENCES...AND THE SEA
BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL EASILY WARM INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S. WARMER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE...AND MODELS ARE SHOWING 12-14 DEGREES C AT 850 MB. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LOWER 80S AREAWIDE. LOCATIONS ON THE COAST MAY
BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THANKS TO THE SEABREEZE. SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED THANKS TO SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE RETURN OF SUMMER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION ON MONDAY AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY.
BOTH DAYS WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUN.

SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY BUT A COLD FRONT SAGGING
SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO NORTHERN ZONES
AND A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO EDGE SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE SO NOT LOOKING
FOR ANY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY THERE. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL
BE IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES HOWEVER BEST INSTABILITY DOES REMAIN
NORTH OF THE BORDER.

COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG IT FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL LIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR ON THURSDAY WITH
NORTHERN ZONES ONCE AGAIN SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP. SHOULD
BE A HOT AND STEAMY DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 80S.

LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION. FRIDAY LOOKING TO BE
AN ACTIVE DAY FOR CONVECTION AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST DURING PRIME AFTERNOON HEATING. INCREASING SHEAR WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IF
CURRENT TIMING HOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG AS LOW
AS LIFR.

LONG TERM...VFR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 231115 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
715 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AND WILL SETTLE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND WILL SWING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND
TO LOWER POPS. PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BUT SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT
GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. A LARGE TROUGH REMAINS
CENTERED OVERHEAD AND TO OUR EAST. THE TROUGH BREAKS DOWN AS
RIDGING EDGES IN BY SUNDAY. AS WE WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...WE WILL SEE A STEADY STREAM OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS.

SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS WITH
THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING...TERRAIN INFLUENCES...AND THE SEA
BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL EASILY WARM INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S. WARMER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE...AND MODELS ARE SHOWING 12-14 DEGREES C AT 850 MB. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LOWER 80S AREAWIDE. LOCATIONS ON THE COAST MAY
BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THANKS TO THE SEABREEZE. SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED THANKS TO SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE RETURN OF SUMMER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION ON MONDAY AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY.
BOTH DAYS WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUN.

SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY BUT A COLD FRONT SAGGING
SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO NORTHERN ZONES
AND A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO EDGE SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE SO NOT LOOKING
FOR ANY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY THERE. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL
BE IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES HOWEVER BEST INSTABILITY DOES REMAIN
NORTH OF THE BORDER.

COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG IT FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL LIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR ON THURSDAY WITH
NORTHERN ZONES ONCE AGAIN SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP. SHOULD
BE A HOT AND STEAMY DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 80S.

LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION. FRIDAY LOOKING TO BE
AN ACTIVE DAY FOR CONVECTION AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST DURING PRIME AFTERNOON HEATING. INCREASING SHEAR WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IF
CURRENT TIMING HOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG AS LOW
AS LIFR.

LONG TERM...VFR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 231115 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
715 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AND WILL SETTLE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND WILL SWING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND
TO LOWER POPS. PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BUT SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT
GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. A LARGE TROUGH REMAINS
CENTERED OVERHEAD AND TO OUR EAST. THE TROUGH BREAKS DOWN AS
RIDGING EDGES IN BY SUNDAY. AS WE WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...WE WILL SEE A STEADY STREAM OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS.

SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS WITH
THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING...TERRAIN INFLUENCES...AND THE SEA
BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL EASILY WARM INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S. WARMER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE...AND MODELS ARE SHOWING 12-14 DEGREES C AT 850 MB. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LOWER 80S AREAWIDE. LOCATIONS ON THE COAST MAY
BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THANKS TO THE SEABREEZE. SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED THANKS TO SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE RETURN OF SUMMER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION ON MONDAY AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY.
BOTH DAYS WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUN.

SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY BUT A COLD FRONT SAGGING
SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO NORTHERN ZONES
AND A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO EDGE SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE SO NOT LOOKING
FOR ANY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY THERE. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL
BE IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES HOWEVER BEST INSTABILITY DOES REMAIN
NORTH OF THE BORDER.

COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG IT FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL LIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR ON THURSDAY WITH
NORTHERN ZONES ONCE AGAIN SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP. SHOULD
BE A HOT AND STEAMY DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 80S.

LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION. FRIDAY LOOKING TO BE
AN ACTIVE DAY FOR CONVECTION AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST DURING PRIME AFTERNOON HEATING. INCREASING SHEAR WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IF
CURRENT TIMING HOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG AS LOW
AS LIFR.

LONG TERM...VFR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 231115 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
715 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AND WILL SETTLE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND WILL SWING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND
TO LOWER POPS. PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BUT SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT
GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. A LARGE TROUGH REMAINS
CENTERED OVERHEAD AND TO OUR EAST. THE TROUGH BREAKS DOWN AS
RIDGING EDGES IN BY SUNDAY. AS WE WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...WE WILL SEE A STEADY STREAM OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS.

SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS WITH
THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING...TERRAIN INFLUENCES...AND THE SEA
BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL EASILY WARM INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S. WARMER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE...AND MODELS ARE SHOWING 12-14 DEGREES C AT 850 MB. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LOWER 80S AREAWIDE. LOCATIONS ON THE COAST MAY
BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THANKS TO THE SEABREEZE. SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED THANKS TO SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE RETURN OF SUMMER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION ON MONDAY AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY.
BOTH DAYS WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUN.

SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY BUT A COLD FRONT SAGGING
SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO NORTHERN ZONES
AND A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO EDGE SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE SO NOT LOOKING
FOR ANY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY THERE. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL
BE IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES HOWEVER BEST INSTABILITY DOES REMAIN
NORTH OF THE BORDER.

COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG IT FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL LIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR ON THURSDAY WITH
NORTHERN ZONES ONCE AGAIN SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP. SHOULD
BE A HOT AND STEAMY DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 80S.

LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION. FRIDAY LOOKING TO BE
AN ACTIVE DAY FOR CONVECTION AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST DURING PRIME AFTERNOON HEATING. INCREASING SHEAR WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IF
CURRENT TIMING HOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG AS LOW
AS LIFR.

LONG TERM...VFR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230809
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
409 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE EARLY HALF OF
THE DAY TODAY...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL INTO
SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND IS LIKELY DURING THE EARLY
AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM QUEBEC
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A LOW CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GRADUALLY...UPPER LVL SUBSIDENCE IS TAKING OVER THE COLUMN. THE
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CONTINUES TO
MANIFEST ITSELF AS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS WHICH STREAMS FROM THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACK...GREEN AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. THESE
ARE ALSO LIKELY THE RESULT OF ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE WHICH...PER
LATEST WV IMAGERY IS SLIDING OUT OF QUEBEC AT THE TIME OF THIS
WRITING.

IT IS THIS LAST FEATURE WHICH WILL DEFINE THE EARLY HOURS OF THE
DAY TODAY. MODELS INDICATE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND UPPER LVL COOLING
TO SUPPORT A POP SHOWER OR TWO. NOT EXPECTING THESE SHOWERS TO BE
NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUS DAYS...AS THIS WAVE IS ALSO
USHERING IN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WHERE PWATS DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW
1.0 INCHES. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...SHIFTING FROM E-W AS INVERTED RIDGING REGAINS CONTROL FROM
THE E. THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER TO FULLY
DISSIPATE...INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E-SE
PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHERE MARINE FLOW WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME
LOWER LVL MOISTURE.

GIVEN THE GRADUAL EXPECTED CLEARING...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE A BIT
WARMER THAN FRI...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY LOW-MID 70S. NE
WINDS COULD BE BREEZY AS WELL...WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN MA AND RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
AS HEIGHTS RISE FROM LONGWAVE TROF MOVING WELL SE OF THE
REGION...SFC INVERTED RIDGE WILL BACK IN FROM THE NE. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA...EXCEPT
MAYBE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW MA AND SRN NH. ALSO NOTE THAT
SFC PRES GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN. THEREFORE...COULD ACTUALLY SEE
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND GIVEN THAT DWPTS WILL FALL THROUGH
THE DAY BACK INTO THE 50S...WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERAL MINS IN THE
LOW-MID 50S AS WELL. IF...THERE IS ENOUGH CLEARING IN THE NW
VALLEYS...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME 40S ARE SEEN AS WELL. HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED THIS IN THE MINS FOR THIS UPDATE. DRIER AIR IS LIKELY
TO LIMIT FOG SOMEWHAT...BUT WITH RADIATIONAL PROCESSES SOME PATCHY
FOG CAN/T BE RULED OUT.

SUN...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE DAY. ASIDE FROM DIURNAL
CU IN THE INTERIOR...PLENTY OF MIXING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO
REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S THANKS TO H85 TEMPS
INCREASING TO ABOUT +12C. ONLY CAVEAT ARE NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS
WHERE SEA BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE THANKS TO A WEAK PRES GRADIENT.
CURIOUS...SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING A CONVECTIVE QPF BULLSEYE
NEAR THE BERKSHIRES WHICH MAY HAVE TO BE WATCHED...BUT FOR NOW
FEEL THAT THE DRIER AIR SHOULD OVERCOME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD
* WARMER...MORE HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN AROUND EARLY TO MIDDLE
  PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK
* UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES LATE NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
  FROM QUEBEC

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...23/00Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RATHER
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
DETAILS START TO BECOME MURKY LATE WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE
SOME COMMON THEMES IN THE OVERALL SOLUTIONS. SINCE SOME OF THESE
DETAILS INVOLVE A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COAST...
THE IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO SMOOTH OVER
THE MINOR DIFFERENCES.  STILL USED A BLEND...LEANING MORE HEAVILY
UPON ENSEMBLE MEANS...AFTER WEDNESDAY DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY
ONE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION.  ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE SIMILAR
TIMING...WITH THE GFS REMAINING THE SLOWEST. GEFS MEAN SOLUTION IS
CLOSER TO THE TIMING FROM THE INTERNATIONAL MODELS.

DETAILS...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER...LINGERING OVERHEAD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE SLIPPING
SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...LOCAL SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP...KEEPING IT A
BIT COOLER ALONG THE SHORELINE. SOME CLOUDS MAY START TO MOVE IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT TIMING IN QUESTION.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
FOR NOW...MAY SEE A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRY TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF QUEBEC.
QUESTIONS ABOUND WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...AS WELL AS HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH...NEITHER EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO SET ANY SPEED
RECORDS...NOR MOVE TOO FAR SOUTH OF OUR REGION IT IF MAKES IT THAT
FAR.

DID KEEP ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WITH THIS...BUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. CURRENT FORECAST
SUGGESTS A DRIER AND COOLER DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH MID DAY...
PERIODS OF MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR IN LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE BUT
GRADUALLY LIFT ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE. SOME AREAS REMAIN VFR.
MOST TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR BY MID DAY AND THEN REMAIN SO. NOT
EXPECTED MUCH FOG THIS MORNING. WINDS MAINLY NE.

AFTER MID DAY TODAY...
MAINLY VFR. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT MAINLY AT
TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN EXACT TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT. SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...SOME GUSTS MAY APPROACH
15-20 KT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH
4 FT ON THE OUTERMOST SRN WATERS AS WELL. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER UNTIL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHEN HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS. LIGHTER...MORE N WINDS EXPECTED ON SUN.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS. LOW PROBABILITY OF
PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT
ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY FROM
INCREASING SOUTH SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 230809
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
409 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE EARLY HALF OF
THE DAY TODAY...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL INTO
SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND IS LIKELY DURING THE EARLY
AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM QUEBEC
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A LOW CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GRADUALLY...UPPER LVL SUBSIDENCE IS TAKING OVER THE COLUMN. THE
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CONTINUES TO
MANIFEST ITSELF AS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS WHICH STREAMS FROM THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACK...GREEN AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. THESE
ARE ALSO LIKELY THE RESULT OF ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE WHICH...PER
LATEST WV IMAGERY IS SLIDING OUT OF QUEBEC AT THE TIME OF THIS
WRITING.

IT IS THIS LAST FEATURE WHICH WILL DEFINE THE EARLY HOURS OF THE
DAY TODAY. MODELS INDICATE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND UPPER LVL COOLING
TO SUPPORT A POP SHOWER OR TWO. NOT EXPECTING THESE SHOWERS TO BE
NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUS DAYS...AS THIS WAVE IS ALSO
USHERING IN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WHERE PWATS DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW
1.0 INCHES. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...SHIFTING FROM E-W AS INVERTED RIDGING REGAINS CONTROL FROM
THE E. THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER TO FULLY
DISSIPATE...INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E-SE
PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHERE MARINE FLOW WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME
LOWER LVL MOISTURE.

GIVEN THE GRADUAL EXPECTED CLEARING...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE A BIT
WARMER THAN FRI...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY LOW-MID 70S. NE
WINDS COULD BE BREEZY AS WELL...WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN MA AND RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
AS HEIGHTS RISE FROM LONGWAVE TROF MOVING WELL SE OF THE
REGION...SFC INVERTED RIDGE WILL BACK IN FROM THE NE. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA...EXCEPT
MAYBE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW MA AND SRN NH. ALSO NOTE THAT
SFC PRES GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN. THEREFORE...COULD ACTUALLY SEE
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND GIVEN THAT DWPTS WILL FALL THROUGH
THE DAY BACK INTO THE 50S...WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERAL MINS IN THE
LOW-MID 50S AS WELL. IF...THERE IS ENOUGH CLEARING IN THE NW
VALLEYS...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME 40S ARE SEEN AS WELL. HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED THIS IN THE MINS FOR THIS UPDATE. DRIER AIR IS LIKELY
TO LIMIT FOG SOMEWHAT...BUT WITH RADIATIONAL PROCESSES SOME PATCHY
FOG CAN/T BE RULED OUT.

SUN...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE DAY. ASIDE FROM DIURNAL
CU IN THE INTERIOR...PLENTY OF MIXING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO
REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S THANKS TO H85 TEMPS
INCREASING TO ABOUT +12C. ONLY CAVEAT ARE NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS
WHERE SEA BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE THANKS TO A WEAK PRES GRADIENT.
CURIOUS...SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING A CONVECTIVE QPF BULLSEYE
NEAR THE BERKSHIRES WHICH MAY HAVE TO BE WATCHED...BUT FOR NOW
FEEL THAT THE DRIER AIR SHOULD OVERCOME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD
* WARMER...MORE HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN AROUND EARLY TO MIDDLE
  PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK
* UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES LATE NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
  FROM QUEBEC

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...23/00Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RATHER
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
DETAILS START TO BECOME MURKY LATE WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE
SOME COMMON THEMES IN THE OVERALL SOLUTIONS. SINCE SOME OF THESE
DETAILS INVOLVE A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COAST...
THE IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO SMOOTH OVER
THE MINOR DIFFERENCES.  STILL USED A BLEND...LEANING MORE HEAVILY
UPON ENSEMBLE MEANS...AFTER WEDNESDAY DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY
ONE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION.  ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE SIMILAR
TIMING...WITH THE GFS REMAINING THE SLOWEST. GEFS MEAN SOLUTION IS
CLOSER TO THE TIMING FROM THE INTERNATIONAL MODELS.

DETAILS...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER...LINGERING OVERHEAD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE SLIPPING
SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...LOCAL SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP...KEEPING IT A
BIT COOLER ALONG THE SHORELINE. SOME CLOUDS MAY START TO MOVE IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT TIMING IN QUESTION.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
FOR NOW...MAY SEE A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRY TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF QUEBEC.
QUESTIONS ABOUND WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...AS WELL AS HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH...NEITHER EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO SET ANY SPEED
RECORDS...NOR MOVE TOO FAR SOUTH OF OUR REGION IT IF MAKES IT THAT
FAR.

DID KEEP ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WITH THIS...BUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. CURRENT FORECAST
SUGGESTS A DRIER AND COOLER DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH MID DAY...
PERIODS OF MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR IN LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE BUT
GRADUALLY LIFT ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE. SOME AREAS REMAIN VFR.
MOST TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR BY MID DAY AND THEN REMAIN SO. NOT
EXPECTED MUCH FOG THIS MORNING. WINDS MAINLY NE.

AFTER MID DAY TODAY...
MAINLY VFR. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT MAINLY AT
TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN EXACT TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT. SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...SOME GUSTS MAY APPROACH
15-20 KT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH
4 FT ON THE OUTERMOST SRN WATERS AS WELL. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER UNTIL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHEN HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS. LIGHTER...MORE N WINDS EXPECTED ON SUN.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS. LOW PROBABILITY OF
PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT
ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY FROM
INCREASING SOUTH SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KGYX 230703
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
303 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AND WILL SETTLE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND WILL SWING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT
GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. A LARGE TROUGH REMAINS
CENTERED OVERHEAD AND TO OUR EAST. THE TROUGH BREAKS DOWN AS
RIDGING EDGES IN BY SUNDAY. AS WE WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...WE WILL SEE A STEADY STREAM OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS.

SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS WITH
THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING...TERRAIN INFLUENCES...AND THE SEA
BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL EASILY WARM INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S. WARMER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE...AND MODELS ARE SHOWING 12-14 DEGREES C AT 850 MB. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LOWER 80S AREAWIDE. LOCATIONS ON THE COAST MAY
BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THANKS TO THE SEABREEZE. SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED THANKS TO SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE RETURN OF SUMMER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION ON MONDAY AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY.
BOTH DAYS WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUN.

SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY BUT A COLD FRONT SAGGING
SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO NORTHERN ZONES
AND A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO EDGE SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE SO NOT LOOKING
FOR ANY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY THERE. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL
BE IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES HOWEVER BEST INSTABILITY DOES REMAIN
NORTH OF THE BORDER.

COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG IT FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL LIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR ON THURSDAY WITH
NORTHERN ZONES ONCE AGAIN SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP. SHOULD
BE A HOT AND STEAMY DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 80S.

LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION. FRIDAY LOOKING TO BE
AN ACTIVE DAY FOR CONVECTION AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST DURING PRIME AFTERNOON HEATING. INCREASING SHEAR WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IF
CURRENT TIMING HOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG AS LOW
AS LIFR.

LONG TERM...VFR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

HANES/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KGYX 230703
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
303 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AND WILL SETTLE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND WILL SWING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT
GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. A LARGE TROUGH REMAINS
CENTERED OVERHEAD AND TO OUR EAST. THE TROUGH BREAKS DOWN AS
RIDGING EDGES IN BY SUNDAY. AS WE WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...WE WILL SEE A STEADY STREAM OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS.

SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS WITH
THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING...TERRAIN INFLUENCES...AND THE SEA
BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL EASILY WARM INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S. WARMER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE...AND MODELS ARE SHOWING 12-14 DEGREES C AT 850 MB. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LOWER 80S AREAWIDE. LOCATIONS ON THE COAST MAY
BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THANKS TO THE SEABREEZE. SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED THANKS TO SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE RETURN OF SUMMER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION ON MONDAY AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY.
BOTH DAYS WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUN.

SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY BUT A COLD FRONT SAGGING
SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO NORTHERN ZONES
AND A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO EDGE SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE SO NOT LOOKING
FOR ANY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY THERE. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL
BE IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES HOWEVER BEST INSTABILITY DOES REMAIN
NORTH OF THE BORDER.

COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG IT FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL LIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR ON THURSDAY WITH
NORTHERN ZONES ONCE AGAIN SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP. SHOULD
BE A HOT AND STEAMY DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 80S.

LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION. FRIDAY LOOKING TO BE
AN ACTIVE DAY FOR CONVECTION AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST DURING PRIME AFTERNOON HEATING. INCREASING SHEAR WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IF
CURRENT TIMING HOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG AS LOW
AS LIFR.

LONG TERM...VFR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

HANES/SINSABAUGH



000
FXUS61 KBOX 230548
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
148 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...OTHERWISE
DRY THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND IS
LIKELY DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONT
MAY APPROACH FROM QUEBEC LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
BULK OF THE -SHRA ACTIVITY HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION AS
DRIER AIR SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NE. THERE IS ONE
MORE SHORTWAVE INCOMING THAT HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF -SHRA
IN VT/NH...BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE MORE TIME FOR THESE TO ARRIVE.
IF THEY DO AT ALL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLUMN BEGINS TO DRY FROM THE NORTH AS NOTED BY DECREASING
PWATS AND MUCH LOWER KI VALUES APPROACHING FROM THE NE. BEST
CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS WILL BE BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

STRATUS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TONIGHT WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. SOME FOG LIKELY AS WELL BUT WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE IN EASTERN NEW ENG AS MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES IN
OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SATURDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND LAST SHORTWAVE SWINGS SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT AT THE SAME TIME MID LEVEL DRYING IS MOVING IN SO
EXPECT LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN N/NW ZONES
AS A SECONDARY AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND KI VALUES MOVES IN FROM
THE N. HOWEVER...IMPROVEMENT AND PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS THE TROF SHIFTS S OF THE REGION. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN
SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO SNE WHICH WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...PATCHY DENSE RADIATION FOG EXPECTED IN
NORMAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD
* WARMER...MORE HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN AROUND EARLY TO MIDDLE
  PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK
* UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM QUEBEC
  LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN START TO DIVERGE AROUND THE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT OUT OF
QUEBEC. ALSO NOTING MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING A SYSTEM AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH OUT OF THE TROPICS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE ENSEMBLES WITH LESSER EMPHASIS PLACED ON
THE 00Z/12Z OP RUNS LATE NEXT WEEK. 00Z/12Z ECMWF RUNS SEEM A BIT
TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON THU...WHILE
THE 12Z GFS BRINGS THE FRONT ACROSS LATE THU NIGHT/FRI...KIND OF
CATCHING UP TO THE EC. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER WITH REGARDS
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE REGION...WHICH
MAY SLOW THINGS DOWN FURTHER.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...HIGH PRES AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD DOWN THE COAST
OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE LOWER
70S ALONG THE COAST...RANGING UP TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE
MARITIMES TO THE MID ATLC STATES OVER TIME...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE TOP OF THE REGION ON MONDAY THAT SLOWLY SINKS S. THIS
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO S-SW...BRINGING MILDER AND MORE
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER-MID 80S DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH LIGHT PRES GRADIENT ON
MON AND TUE...SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP KEEPING IT A BIT
COOLER ALONG THE SHORELINE. ONCE THE S-SW FLOW IS ESTABLISHED...
TEMPS ALONG THE S COAST MAY ALSO BE A BIT COOLER ON WED. SOME
CLOUDS MAY START TO MOVE IN WED NIGHT...BUT TIMING IN QUESTION.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. FOR NOW...MAY SEE FRONTAL SYSTEM TRY TO WORK S OUT OF
QUEBEC AROUND LATE THU/THU NIGHT TIMEFRAME. QUESTION WILL ALSO BE
HOW MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
DID KEEP ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR FOR THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WITH THIS...BUT CAN
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM SO DID MENTION THIS. CURRENT FORECAST
SUGGESTS A DRIER AND COOLER DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH MID DAY...
PERIODS OF MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR IN LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE BUT
GRADUALLY LIFT ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE. SOME AREAS REMAIN VFR.
MOST TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR BY MID DAY AND THEN REMAIN SO. NOT
EXPECTED MUCH FOG THIS MORNING. WINDS MAINLY NE.

AFTER MID DAY TODAY...
MAINLY VFR. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT MAINLY AT
TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN EXACT TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT. SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

E/NE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS COULD GUST TO
15-20 KT TONIGHT INTO SAT GIVEN MODEST GRADIENT IN PLACE...BUT A
DECREASE IN WIND EXPECTED LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT AS
THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO REGION.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PROBABILITY
OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING S SWELL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 230201
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1001 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...OTHERWISE
DRY THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND IS
LIKELY DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONT
MAY APPROACH FROM QUEBEC LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
BULK OF THE -SHRA ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WAIN THIS EVENING THANKS
TO BOTH A LOSS OF DIURNAL HEAT SUPPORT AND THE FACT THAT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AN
ISOLATED -SHRA MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BOX
CWA...BUT WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT ISOLATED CHANCES WITH THIS UPDATE.
OTHERWISE. CONTINUE TO NOTE LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE E AND
INTERIOR CLOUDS LOWERING THANKS TO ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL LIKELY
MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT AS IT WILL LIMIT RADIATIVE
PROCESSES. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FOG/DZ MOVING IN
OFFSHORE ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS DO STILL HAVE A DRY LAYER JUST ABOVE
THE SFC AT 00Z...WHICH WOULD HAVE TO BE OVERCOME FOR DZ.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON DZ MENTION FOR THE TIME
BEING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. WILL
MAINTAIN THE POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS YET ONE LAST SHORTWAVE
WILL BE DIVING S DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLUMN BEGINS TO DRY FROM THE NORTH AS NOTED BY DECREASING
PWATS AND MUCH LOWER KI VALUES APPROACHING FROM THE NE. BEST
CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS WILL BE BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

STRATUS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TONIGHT WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. SOME FOG LIKELY AS WELL BUT WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE IN EASTERN NEW ENG AS MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES IN
OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND LAST SHORTWAVE SWINGS SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT AT THE SAME TIME MID LEVEL DRYING IS MOVING IN SO
EXPECT LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN N/NW ZONES
AS A SECONDARY AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND KI VALUES MOVES IN FROM
THE N. HOWEVER...IMPROVEMENT AND PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS THE TROF SHIFTS S OF THE REGION. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN
SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO SNE WHICH WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...PATCHY DENSE RADIATION FOG EXPECTED IN
NORMAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD
* WARMER...MORE HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN AROUND EARLY TO MIDDLE
  PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK
* UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM QUEBEC
  LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN START TO DIVERGE AROUND THE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT OUT OF
QUEBEC. ALSO NOTING MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING A SYSTEM AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH OUT OF THE TROPICS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE ENSEMBLES WITH LESSER EMPHASIS PLACED ON
THE 00Z/12Z OP RUNS LATE NEXT WEEK. 00Z/12Z ECMWF RUNS SEEM A BIT
TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON THU...WHILE
THE 12Z GFS BRINGS THE FRONT ACROSS LATE THU NIGHT/FRI...KIND OF
CATCHING UP TO THE EC. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER WITH REGARDS
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE REGION...WHICH
MAY SLOW THINGS DOWN FURTHER.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...HIGH PRES AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD DOWN THE COAST
OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE LOWER
70S ALONG THE COAST...RANGING UP TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE
MARITIMES TO THE MID ATLC STATES OVER TIME...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE TOP OF THE REGION ON MONDAY THAT SLOWLY SINKS S. THIS
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO S-SW...BRINGING MILDER AND MORE
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER-MID 80S DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH LIGHT PRES GRADIENT ON
MON AND TUE...SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP KEEPING IT A BIT
COOLER ALONG THE SHORELINE. ONCE THE S-SW FLOW IS ESTABLISHED...
TEMPS ALONG THE S COAST MAY ALSO BE A BIT COOLER ON WED. SOME
CLOUDS MAY START TO MOVE IN WED NIGHT...BUT TIMING IN QUESTION.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. FOR NOW...MAY SEE FRONTAL SYSTEM TRY TO WORK S OUT OF
QUEBEC AROUND LATE THU/THU NIGHT TIMEFRAME. QUESTION WILL ALSO BE
HOW MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
DID KEEP ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR FOR THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WITH THIS...BUT CAN
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM SO DID MENTION THIS. CURRENT FORECAST
SUGGESTS A DRIER AND COOLER DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 03Z-04Z...THEN EXPECT
LOWERING CIGS BACK TO MVFR-IFR OVERNIGHT. SCT SHOWERS LINGERING
INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY W...WHICH WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT. FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF TREND...BUT TIMING IS LESS
CERTAIN. ALSO LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...BEST CHANCE FOR FOG APPEARS TO BE IN THE
CT VALLEY...AND COULD SEE SOME ALONG IMMEDIATE E COAST.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY WITH AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH
AND EAST. A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE...MAINLY NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
DEVELOPING IN NORMAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
THIS EVENING. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE A FEW HOURS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN FORECAST INDICATES.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
TONIGHT. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE A FEW HOURS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN FORECAST INDICATES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT. SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

E/NE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS COULD GUST TO
15-20 KT TONIGHT INTO SAT GIVEN MODEST GRADIENT IN PLACE...BUT A
DECREASE IN WIND EXPECTED LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT AS
THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO REGION.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PROBABILITY
OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING S SWELL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 230201
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1001 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...OTHERWISE
DRY THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND IS
LIKELY DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONT
MAY APPROACH FROM QUEBEC LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
BULK OF THE -SHRA ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WAIN THIS EVENING THANKS
TO BOTH A LOSS OF DIURNAL HEAT SUPPORT AND THE FACT THAT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AN
ISOLATED -SHRA MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BOX
CWA...BUT WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT ISOLATED CHANCES WITH THIS UPDATE.
OTHERWISE. CONTINUE TO NOTE LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE E AND
INTERIOR CLOUDS LOWERING THANKS TO ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL LIKELY
MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT AS IT WILL LIMIT RADIATIVE
PROCESSES. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FOG/DZ MOVING IN
OFFSHORE ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS DO STILL HAVE A DRY LAYER JUST ABOVE
THE SFC AT 00Z...WHICH WOULD HAVE TO BE OVERCOME FOR DZ.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON DZ MENTION FOR THE TIME
BEING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. WILL
MAINTAIN THE POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS YET ONE LAST SHORTWAVE
WILL BE DIVING S DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLUMN BEGINS TO DRY FROM THE NORTH AS NOTED BY DECREASING
PWATS AND MUCH LOWER KI VALUES APPROACHING FROM THE NE. BEST
CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS WILL BE BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

STRATUS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TONIGHT WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. SOME FOG LIKELY AS WELL BUT WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE IN EASTERN NEW ENG AS MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES IN
OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND LAST SHORTWAVE SWINGS SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT AT THE SAME TIME MID LEVEL DRYING IS MOVING IN SO
EXPECT LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN N/NW ZONES
AS A SECONDARY AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND KI VALUES MOVES IN FROM
THE N. HOWEVER...IMPROVEMENT AND PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS THE TROF SHIFTS S OF THE REGION. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN
SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO SNE WHICH WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...PATCHY DENSE RADIATION FOG EXPECTED IN
NORMAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD
* WARMER...MORE HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN AROUND EARLY TO MIDDLE
  PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK
* UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM QUEBEC
  LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN START TO DIVERGE AROUND THE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT OUT OF
QUEBEC. ALSO NOTING MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING A SYSTEM AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH OUT OF THE TROPICS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE ENSEMBLES WITH LESSER EMPHASIS PLACED ON
THE 00Z/12Z OP RUNS LATE NEXT WEEK. 00Z/12Z ECMWF RUNS SEEM A BIT
TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON THU...WHILE
THE 12Z GFS BRINGS THE FRONT ACROSS LATE THU NIGHT/FRI...KIND OF
CATCHING UP TO THE EC. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER WITH REGARDS
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE REGION...WHICH
MAY SLOW THINGS DOWN FURTHER.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...HIGH PRES AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD DOWN THE COAST
OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE LOWER
70S ALONG THE COAST...RANGING UP TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE
MARITIMES TO THE MID ATLC STATES OVER TIME...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE TOP OF THE REGION ON MONDAY THAT SLOWLY SINKS S. THIS
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO S-SW...BRINGING MILDER AND MORE
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER-MID 80S DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH LIGHT PRES GRADIENT ON
MON AND TUE...SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP KEEPING IT A BIT
COOLER ALONG THE SHORELINE. ONCE THE S-SW FLOW IS ESTABLISHED...
TEMPS ALONG THE S COAST MAY ALSO BE A BIT COOLER ON WED. SOME
CLOUDS MAY START TO MOVE IN WED NIGHT...BUT TIMING IN QUESTION.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. FOR NOW...MAY SEE FRONTAL SYSTEM TRY TO WORK S OUT OF
QUEBEC AROUND LATE THU/THU NIGHT TIMEFRAME. QUESTION WILL ALSO BE
HOW MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
DID KEEP ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR FOR THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WITH THIS...BUT CAN
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM SO DID MENTION THIS. CURRENT FORECAST
SUGGESTS A DRIER AND COOLER DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 03Z-04Z...THEN EXPECT
LOWERING CIGS BACK TO MVFR-IFR OVERNIGHT. SCT SHOWERS LINGERING
INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY W...WHICH WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT. FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF TREND...BUT TIMING IS LESS
CERTAIN. ALSO LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...BEST CHANCE FOR FOG APPEARS TO BE IN THE
CT VALLEY...AND COULD SEE SOME ALONG IMMEDIATE E COAST.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY WITH AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH
AND EAST. A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE...MAINLY NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
DEVELOPING IN NORMAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
THIS EVENING. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE A FEW HOURS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN FORECAST INDICATES.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
TONIGHT. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE A FEW HOURS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN FORECAST INDICATES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT. SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

E/NE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS COULD GUST TO
15-20 KT TONIGHT INTO SAT GIVEN MODEST GRADIENT IN PLACE...BUT A
DECREASE IN WIND EXPECTED LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT AS
THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO REGION.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PROBABILITY
OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING S SWELL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 230152
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
952 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
945 PM UPDATE: SHOWERS FINALLY DRYING UP ACROSS THE FA...MOST OF
WHAT IS ON RADAR IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. DRYING TREND IN
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPS/DEWPTS BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA.

630 PM UPDATE: SHWRS CONTINUE TO LINGER IN SW MAINE AND ACROSS NH.
MADE SOME SMALL INCREASES IN POPS OVER SOME OF THESE AREAS FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SHWRS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

PREV DISC:
A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWFA ATTM. THIS
CONVERGENT ZONE IS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY FROM A KHIE TO
KPWM LINE AND SWWD. SOME WIDELY SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THRU THIS EVENING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN ME. THE
DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY...WHILE THOSE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CONVERGENT AXIS WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE STAYING POWER
INTO THE EVENING.

OTHERWISE...WE WILL SEE A SLOW CLEARING TREND AS THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS BREAK UP. THESE POCKETS OF CLEARING WILL HELP TEMPS COOL
QUICKLY. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW AREAS OF VALLEY FOG
COINCIDENT WITH THESE HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME SUN IN THE MORNING...BUT THIS WILL
QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES. THESE
WILL MOSTLY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...AS THE CONVERGENT ZONE
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. EXPECT AN EARLY AFTERNOON
PEAK IN CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS MOVING SWWD IN THE
NELY FLOW. THIS WILL BE A COOL FLOW AS WELL...AND SEASONABLY COOL
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED YET AGAIN...DESPITE BEING A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY.

CLEARING WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO QUICKLY COOLING TEMPS AT
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG LIKELY BEING MORE
WIDESPREAD AS HIGH PRES TAKES CONTROL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WITH SEA
BREEZES ALONG THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A MODERATING TREND WILL CONTINUE INLAND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THAT HAVE YET TO BE RESOLVED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AS ANY TROPICAL
ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 2000 FT IN SHRA...BUT VSBYS WILL
REMAIN P6SM. PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG. NOT CONFIDENT IN DEGREE OF CLEARING...SO DIDN/T HIT IT
HARD IN THE TAFS...OPTING FOR A TEMPO 2SM AT THE FAVORED
LOCATIONS.

COULD SEE MORE WIDELY SCT SHRA SAT ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR OR BETTER CONDITIONS IN THESE. MORE
WIDESPREAD CLEARING SAT NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO MORE EXTENSIVE VALLEY
FOG AND IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 230152
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
952 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
945 PM UPDATE: SHOWERS FINALLY DRYING UP ACROSS THE FA...MOST OF
WHAT IS ON RADAR IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. DRYING TREND IN
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPS/DEWPTS BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA.

630 PM UPDATE: SHWRS CONTINUE TO LINGER IN SW MAINE AND ACROSS NH.
MADE SOME SMALL INCREASES IN POPS OVER SOME OF THESE AREAS FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SHWRS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

PREV DISC:
A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWFA ATTM. THIS
CONVERGENT ZONE IS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY FROM A KHIE TO
KPWM LINE AND SWWD. SOME WIDELY SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THRU THIS EVENING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN ME. THE
DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY...WHILE THOSE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CONVERGENT AXIS WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE STAYING POWER
INTO THE EVENING.

OTHERWISE...WE WILL SEE A SLOW CLEARING TREND AS THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS BREAK UP. THESE POCKETS OF CLEARING WILL HELP TEMPS COOL
QUICKLY. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW AREAS OF VALLEY FOG
COINCIDENT WITH THESE HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME SUN IN THE MORNING...BUT THIS WILL
QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES. THESE
WILL MOSTLY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...AS THE CONVERGENT ZONE
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. EXPECT AN EARLY AFTERNOON
PEAK IN CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS MOVING SWWD IN THE
NELY FLOW. THIS WILL BE A COOL FLOW AS WELL...AND SEASONABLY COOL
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED YET AGAIN...DESPITE BEING A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY.

CLEARING WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO QUICKLY COOLING TEMPS AT
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG LIKELY BEING MORE
WIDESPREAD AS HIGH PRES TAKES CONTROL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WITH SEA
BREEZES ALONG THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A MODERATING TREND WILL CONTINUE INLAND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THAT HAVE YET TO BE RESOLVED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AS ANY TROPICAL
ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 2000 FT IN SHRA...BUT VSBYS WILL
REMAIN P6SM. PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG. NOT CONFIDENT IN DEGREE OF CLEARING...SO DIDN/T HIT IT
HARD IN THE TAFS...OPTING FOR A TEMPO 2SM AT THE FAVORED
LOCATIONS.

COULD SEE MORE WIDELY SCT SHRA SAT ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR OR BETTER CONDITIONS IN THESE. MORE
WIDESPREAD CLEARING SAT NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO MORE EXTENSIVE VALLEY
FOG AND IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KBOX 222355
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
755 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...OTHERWISE
DRY THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND IS
LIKELY DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONT
MAY APPROACH FROM QUEBEC LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
745 PM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS SW NH/CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N
CENTRAL CT AT 2345Z...BUT THEY ARE TENDING TO DISSIPATE AS THEY
SHIFT SLOWLY W. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER IS TENDING TO FILL IN WITH
RATHER INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE SURFACE ONSHORE
FLOW...ALBEIT LIGHT...REMAINS IN PLACE. NOTING SOME LOWER CLOUDS
MOVING INTO CAPE ANN AND DEVELOPING ACROSS LOWER CT VALLEY THOUGH
ONLY A FEW POCKETS OF LOW VSBYS.

AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
AND THICKEN...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOP...BUT THINK IT
WILL HAPPEN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE E COAST WITH THE ONSHORE WIND.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE AIRMASS ALOFT WITH LOWERING PWATS
MAINLY AFTER 06Z. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT THEN BLENDED INTO
CURRENT NEAR TERM TRENDS...WHICH WERE PRETTY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLUMN BEGINS TO DRY FROM THE NORTH AS NOTED BY DECREASING
PWATS AND MUCH LOWER KI VALUES APPROACHING FROM THE NE. BEST
CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS WILL BE BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

STRATUS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TONIGHT WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. SOME FOG LIKELY AS WELL BUT WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE IN EASTERN NEW ENG AS MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES IN
OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND LAST SHORTWAVE SWINGS SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT AT THE SAME TIME MID LEVEL DRYING IS MOVING IN SO
EXPECT LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN N/NW ZONES
AS A SECONDARY AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND KI VALUES MOVES IN FROM
THE N. HOWEVER...IMPROVEMENT AND PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS THE TROF SHIFTS S OF THE REGION. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN
SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO SNE WHICH WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...PATCHY DENSE RADIATION FOG EXPECTED IN
NORMAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD
* WARMER...MORE HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN AROUND EARLY TO MIDDLE
  PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK
* UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM QUEBEC
  LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN START TO DIVERGE AROUND THE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT OUT OF
QUEBEC. ALSO NOTING MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING A SYSTEM AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH OUT OF THE TROPICS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE ENSEMBLES WITH LESSER EMPHASIS PLACED ON
THE 00Z/12Z OP RUNS LATE NEXT WEEK. 00Z/12Z ECMWF RUNS SEEM A BIT
TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON THU...WHILE
THE 12Z GFS BRINGS THE FRONT ACROSS LATE THU NIGHT/FRI...KIND OF
CATCHING UP TO THE EC. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER WITH REGARDS
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE REGION...WHICH
MAY SLOW THINGS DOWN FURTHER.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...HIGH PRES AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD DOWN THE COAST
OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE LOWER
70S ALONG THE COAST...RANGING UP TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE
MARITIMES TO THE MID ATLC STATES OVER TIME...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE TOP OF THE REGION ON MONDAY THAT SLOWLY SINKS S. THIS
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO S-SW...BRINGING MILDER AND MORE
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER-MID 80S DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH LIGHT PRES GRADIENT ON
MON AND TUE...SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP KEEPING IT A BIT
COOLER ALONG THE SHORELINE. ONCE THE S-SW FLOW IS ESTABLISHED...
TEMPS ALONG THE S COAST MAY ALSO BE A BIT COOLER ON WED. SOME
CLOUDS MAY START TO MOVE IN WED NIGHT...BUT TIMING IN QUESTION.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. FOR NOW...MAY SEE FRONTAL SYSTEM TRY TO WORK S OUT OF
QUEBEC AROUND LATE THU/THU NIGHT TIMEFRAME. QUESTION WILL ALSO BE
HOW MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
DID KEEP ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR FOR THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WITH THIS...BUT CAN
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM SO DID MENTION THIS. CURRENT FORECAST
SUGGESTS A DRIER AND COOLER DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 03Z-04Z...THEN EXPECT
LOWERING CIGS BACK TO MVFR-IFR OVERNIGHT. SCT SHOWERS LINGERING
INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY W...WHICH WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT. FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF TREND...BUT TIMING IS LESS
CERTAIN. ALSO LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...BEST CHANCE FOR FOG APPEARS TO BE IN THE
CT VALLEY...AND COULD SEE SOME ALONG IMMEDIATE E COAST.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY WITH AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH
AND EAST. A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE...MAINLY NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
DEVELOPING IN NORMAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
THIS EVENING. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE A FEW HOURS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN FORECAST INDICATES.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
TONIGHT. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE A FEW HOURS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN FORECAST INDICATES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT. SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

E/NE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS COULD GUST TO
15-20 KT TONIGHT INTO SAT GIVEN MODEST GRADIENT IN PLACE...BUT A
DECREASE IN WIND EXPECTED LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT AS
THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO REGION.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PROBABILITY
OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING S SWELL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC/EVT
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 222355
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
755 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...OTHERWISE
DRY THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND IS
LIKELY DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONT
MAY APPROACH FROM QUEBEC LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
745 PM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS SW NH/CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N
CENTRAL CT AT 2345Z...BUT THEY ARE TENDING TO DISSIPATE AS THEY
SHIFT SLOWLY W. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER IS TENDING TO FILL IN WITH
RATHER INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE SURFACE ONSHORE
FLOW...ALBEIT LIGHT...REMAINS IN PLACE. NOTING SOME LOWER CLOUDS
MOVING INTO CAPE ANN AND DEVELOPING ACROSS LOWER CT VALLEY THOUGH
ONLY A FEW POCKETS OF LOW VSBYS.

AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
AND THICKEN...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOP...BUT THINK IT
WILL HAPPEN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE E COAST WITH THE ONSHORE WIND.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE AIRMASS ALOFT WITH LOWERING PWATS
MAINLY AFTER 06Z. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT THEN BLENDED INTO
CURRENT NEAR TERM TRENDS...WHICH WERE PRETTY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLUMN BEGINS TO DRY FROM THE NORTH AS NOTED BY DECREASING
PWATS AND MUCH LOWER KI VALUES APPROACHING FROM THE NE. BEST
CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS WILL BE BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

STRATUS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TONIGHT WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. SOME FOG LIKELY AS WELL BUT WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE IN EASTERN NEW ENG AS MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES IN
OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND LAST SHORTWAVE SWINGS SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT AT THE SAME TIME MID LEVEL DRYING IS MOVING IN SO
EXPECT LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN N/NW ZONES
AS A SECONDARY AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND KI VALUES MOVES IN FROM
THE N. HOWEVER...IMPROVEMENT AND PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS THE TROF SHIFTS S OF THE REGION. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN
SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO SNE WHICH WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...PATCHY DENSE RADIATION FOG EXPECTED IN
NORMAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD
* WARMER...MORE HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN AROUND EARLY TO MIDDLE
  PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK
* UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM QUEBEC
  LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN START TO DIVERGE AROUND THE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT OUT OF
QUEBEC. ALSO NOTING MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING A SYSTEM AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH OUT OF THE TROPICS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE ENSEMBLES WITH LESSER EMPHASIS PLACED ON
THE 00Z/12Z OP RUNS LATE NEXT WEEK. 00Z/12Z ECMWF RUNS SEEM A BIT
TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON THU...WHILE
THE 12Z GFS BRINGS THE FRONT ACROSS LATE THU NIGHT/FRI...KIND OF
CATCHING UP TO THE EC. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER WITH REGARDS
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE REGION...WHICH
MAY SLOW THINGS DOWN FURTHER.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...HIGH PRES AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD DOWN THE COAST
OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE LOWER
70S ALONG THE COAST...RANGING UP TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE
MARITIMES TO THE MID ATLC STATES OVER TIME...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE TOP OF THE REGION ON MONDAY THAT SLOWLY SINKS S. THIS
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO S-SW...BRINGING MILDER AND MORE
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER-MID 80S DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH LIGHT PRES GRADIENT ON
MON AND TUE...SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP KEEPING IT A BIT
COOLER ALONG THE SHORELINE. ONCE THE S-SW FLOW IS ESTABLISHED...
TEMPS ALONG THE S COAST MAY ALSO BE A BIT COOLER ON WED. SOME
CLOUDS MAY START TO MOVE IN WED NIGHT...BUT TIMING IN QUESTION.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. FOR NOW...MAY SEE FRONTAL SYSTEM TRY TO WORK S OUT OF
QUEBEC AROUND LATE THU/THU NIGHT TIMEFRAME. QUESTION WILL ALSO BE
HOW MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
DID KEEP ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR FOR THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WITH THIS...BUT CAN
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM SO DID MENTION THIS. CURRENT FORECAST
SUGGESTS A DRIER AND COOLER DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 03Z-04Z...THEN EXPECT
LOWERING CIGS BACK TO MVFR-IFR OVERNIGHT. SCT SHOWERS LINGERING
INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY W...WHICH WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT. FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF TREND...BUT TIMING IS LESS
CERTAIN. ALSO LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...BEST CHANCE FOR FOG APPEARS TO BE IN THE
CT VALLEY...AND COULD SEE SOME ALONG IMMEDIATE E COAST.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY WITH AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH
AND EAST. A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE...MAINLY NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
DEVELOPING IN NORMAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
THIS EVENING. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE A FEW HOURS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN FORECAST INDICATES.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
TONIGHT. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE A FEW HOURS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN FORECAST INDICATES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT. SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

E/NE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS COULD GUST TO
15-20 KT TONIGHT INTO SAT GIVEN MODEST GRADIENT IN PLACE...BUT A
DECREASE IN WIND EXPECTED LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT AS
THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO REGION.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PROBABILITY
OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING S SWELL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC/EVT
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 222244
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
644 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
630 PM UPDATE: SHWRS CONTINUE TO LINGER IN SW MAINE AND ACROSS NH.
MADE SOME SMALL INCREASES IN POPS OVER SOME OF THESE AREAS FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SHWRS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

PREV DISC:
A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWFA ATTM. THIS
CONVERGENT ZONE IS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY FROM A KHIE TO
KPWM LINE AND SWWD. SOME WIDELY SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THRU THIS EVENING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN ME. THE
DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY...WHILE THOSE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CONVERGENT AXIS WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE STAYING POWER
INTO THE EVENING.

OTHERWISE...WE WILL SEE A SLOW CLEARING TREND AS THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS BREAK UP. THESE POCKETS OF CLEARING WILL HELP TEMPS COOL
QUICKLY. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW AREAS OF VALLEY FOG
COINCIDENT WITH THESE HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME SUN IN THE MORNING...BUT THIS WILL
QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES. THESE
WILL MOSTLY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...AS THE CONVERGENT ZONE
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. EXPECT AN EARLY AFTERNOON
PEAK IN CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS MOVING SWWD IN THE
NELY FLOW. THIS WILL BE A COOL FLOW AS WELL...AND SEASONABLY COOL
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED YET AGAIN...DESPITE BEING A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY.

CLEARING WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO QUICKLY COOLING TEMPS AT
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG LIKELY BEING MORE
WIDESPREAD AS HIGH PRES TAKES CONTROL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WITH SEA
BREEZES ALONG THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A MODERATING TREND WILL CONTINUE INLAND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THAT HAVE YET TO BE RESOLVED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AS ANY TROPICAL
ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 2000 FT IN SHRA...BUT VSBYS WILL
REMAIN P6SM. PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG. NOT CONFIDENT IN DEGREE OF CLEARING...SO DIDN/T HIT IT
HARD IN THE TAFS...OPTING FOR A TEMPO 2SM AT THE FAVORED
LOCATIONS.

COULD SEE MORE WIDELY SCT SHRA SAT ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR OR BETTER CONDITIONS IN THESE. MORE
WIDESPREAD CLEARING SAT NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO MORE EXTENSIVE VALLEY
FOG AND IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 222244
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
644 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
630 PM UPDATE: SHWRS CONTINUE TO LINGER IN SW MAINE AND ACROSS NH.
MADE SOME SMALL INCREASES IN POPS OVER SOME OF THESE AREAS FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SHWRS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

PREV DISC:
A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWFA ATTM. THIS
CONVERGENT ZONE IS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY FROM A KHIE TO
KPWM LINE AND SWWD. SOME WIDELY SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THRU THIS EVENING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN ME. THE
DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY...WHILE THOSE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CONVERGENT AXIS WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE STAYING POWER
INTO THE EVENING.

OTHERWISE...WE WILL SEE A SLOW CLEARING TREND AS THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS BREAK UP. THESE POCKETS OF CLEARING WILL HELP TEMPS COOL
QUICKLY. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW AREAS OF VALLEY FOG
COINCIDENT WITH THESE HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME SUN IN THE MORNING...BUT THIS WILL
QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES. THESE
WILL MOSTLY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...AS THE CONVERGENT ZONE
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. EXPECT AN EARLY AFTERNOON
PEAK IN CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS MOVING SWWD IN THE
NELY FLOW. THIS WILL BE A COOL FLOW AS WELL...AND SEASONABLY COOL
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED YET AGAIN...DESPITE BEING A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY.

CLEARING WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO QUICKLY COOLING TEMPS AT
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG LIKELY BEING MORE
WIDESPREAD AS HIGH PRES TAKES CONTROL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WITH SEA
BREEZES ALONG THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A MODERATING TREND WILL CONTINUE INLAND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THAT HAVE YET TO BE RESOLVED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AS ANY TROPICAL
ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 2000 FT IN SHRA...BUT VSBYS WILL
REMAIN P6SM. PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG. NOT CONFIDENT IN DEGREE OF CLEARING...SO DIDN/T HIT IT
HARD IN THE TAFS...OPTING FOR A TEMPO 2SM AT THE FAVORED
LOCATIONS.

COULD SEE MORE WIDELY SCT SHRA SAT ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR OR BETTER CONDITIONS IN THESE. MORE
WIDESPREAD CLEARING SAT NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO MORE EXTENSIVE VALLEY
FOG AND IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 222244
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
644 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
630 PM UPDATE: SHWRS CONTINUE TO LINGER IN SW MAINE AND ACROSS NH.
MADE SOME SMALL INCREASES IN POPS OVER SOME OF THESE AREAS FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SHWRS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

PREV DISC:
A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWFA ATTM. THIS
CONVERGENT ZONE IS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY FROM A KHIE TO
KPWM LINE AND SWWD. SOME WIDELY SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THRU THIS EVENING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN ME. THE
DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY...WHILE THOSE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CONVERGENT AXIS WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE STAYING POWER
INTO THE EVENING.

OTHERWISE...WE WILL SEE A SLOW CLEARING TREND AS THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS BREAK UP. THESE POCKETS OF CLEARING WILL HELP TEMPS COOL
QUICKLY. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW AREAS OF VALLEY FOG
COINCIDENT WITH THESE HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME SUN IN THE MORNING...BUT THIS WILL
QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES. THESE
WILL MOSTLY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...AS THE CONVERGENT ZONE
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. EXPECT AN EARLY AFTERNOON
PEAK IN CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS MOVING SWWD IN THE
NELY FLOW. THIS WILL BE A COOL FLOW AS WELL...AND SEASONABLY COOL
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED YET AGAIN...DESPITE BEING A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY.

CLEARING WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO QUICKLY COOLING TEMPS AT
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG LIKELY BEING MORE
WIDESPREAD AS HIGH PRES TAKES CONTROL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WITH SEA
BREEZES ALONG THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A MODERATING TREND WILL CONTINUE INLAND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THAT HAVE YET TO BE RESOLVED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AS ANY TROPICAL
ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 2000 FT IN SHRA...BUT VSBYS WILL
REMAIN P6SM. PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG. NOT CONFIDENT IN DEGREE OF CLEARING...SO DIDN/T HIT IT
HARD IN THE TAFS...OPTING FOR A TEMPO 2SM AT THE FAVORED
LOCATIONS.

COULD SEE MORE WIDELY SCT SHRA SAT ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR OR BETTER CONDITIONS IN THESE. MORE
WIDESPREAD CLEARING SAT NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO MORE EXTENSIVE VALLEY
FOG AND IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 222244
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
644 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
630 PM UPDATE: SHWRS CONTINUE TO LINGER IN SW MAINE AND ACROSS NH.
MADE SOME SMALL INCREASES IN POPS OVER SOME OF THESE AREAS FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SHWRS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

PREV DISC:
A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWFA ATTM. THIS
CONVERGENT ZONE IS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY FROM A KHIE TO
KPWM LINE AND SWWD. SOME WIDELY SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THRU THIS EVENING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN ME. THE
DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY...WHILE THOSE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CONVERGENT AXIS WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE STAYING POWER
INTO THE EVENING.

OTHERWISE...WE WILL SEE A SLOW CLEARING TREND AS THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS BREAK UP. THESE POCKETS OF CLEARING WILL HELP TEMPS COOL
QUICKLY. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW AREAS OF VALLEY FOG
COINCIDENT WITH THESE HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME SUN IN THE MORNING...BUT THIS WILL
QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES. THESE
WILL MOSTLY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...AS THE CONVERGENT ZONE
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. EXPECT AN EARLY AFTERNOON
PEAK IN CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS MOVING SWWD IN THE
NELY FLOW. THIS WILL BE A COOL FLOW AS WELL...AND SEASONABLY COOL
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED YET AGAIN...DESPITE BEING A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY.

CLEARING WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO QUICKLY COOLING TEMPS AT
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG LIKELY BEING MORE
WIDESPREAD AS HIGH PRES TAKES CONTROL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WITH SEA
BREEZES ALONG THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A MODERATING TREND WILL CONTINUE INLAND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THAT HAVE YET TO BE RESOLVED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AS ANY TROPICAL
ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 2000 FT IN SHRA...BUT VSBYS WILL
REMAIN P6SM. PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG. NOT CONFIDENT IN DEGREE OF CLEARING...SO DIDN/T HIT IT
HARD IN THE TAFS...OPTING FOR A TEMPO 2SM AT THE FAVORED
LOCATIONS.

COULD SEE MORE WIDELY SCT SHRA SAT ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR OR BETTER CONDITIONS IN THESE. MORE
WIDESPREAD CLEARING SAT NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO MORE EXTENSIVE VALLEY
FOG AND IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KBOX 222050
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
450 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...OTHERWISE
DRY THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND IS
LIKELY DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONT
MAY APPROACH FROM QUEBEC LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND W MA INTO S NH
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE ALSO ISOLD SHOWERS IN SE NEW ENG.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROTATING SOUTH INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT SO EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR. LATER TONIGHT...THE COLUMN BEGINS
TO DRY FROM THE NORTH AS NOTED BY DECREASING PWATS AND MUCH LOWER
KI VALUES APPROACHING FROM THE NE. BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS WILL
BE BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

STRATUS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TONIGHT WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. SOME FOG LIKELY AS WELL BUT WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE IN EASTERN NEW ENG AS MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES IN
OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND LAST SHORTWAVE SWINGS SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT AT THE SAME TIME MID LEVEL DRYING IS MOVING IN SO
EXPECT LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN N/NW ZONES
AS A SECONDARY AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND KI VALUES MOVES IN FROM
THE N. HOWEVER...IMPROVEMENT AND PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS THE TROF SHIFTS S OF THE REGION. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN
SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO SNE WHICH WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...PATCHY DENSE RADIATION FOG EXPECTED IN
NORMAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD
* WARMER...MORE HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN AROUND EARLY TO MIDDLE
  PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK
* UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM QUEBEC
  LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN START TO DIVERGE AROUND THE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT OUT OF
QUEBEC. ALSO NOTING MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING A SYSTEM AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH OUT OF THE TROPICS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE ENSEMBLES WITH LESSER EMPHASIS PLACED ON
THE 00Z/12Z OP RUNS LATE NEXT WEEK. 00Z/12Z ECMWF RUNS SEEM A BIT
TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON THU...WHILE
THE 12Z GFS BRINGS THE FRONT ACROSS LATE THU NIGHT/FRI...KIND OF
CATCHING UP TO THE EC. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER WITH REGARDS
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE REGION...WHICH
MAY SLOW THINGS DOWN FURTHER.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...HIGH PRES AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD DOWN THE COAST
OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE LOWER
70S ALONG THE COAST...RANGING UP TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE
MARITIMES TO THE MID ATLC STATES OVER TIME...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE TOP OF THE REGION ON MONDAY THAT SLOWLY SINKS S. THIS
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO S-SW...BRINGING MILDER AND MORE
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER-MID 80S DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH LIGHT PRES GRADIENT ON
MON AND TUE...SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP KEEPING IT A BIT
COOLER ALONG THE SHORELINE. ONCE THE S-SW FLOW IS ESTABLISHED...
TEMPS ALONG THE S COAST MAY ALSO BE A BIT COOLER ON WED. SOME
CLOUDS MAY START TO MOVE IN WED NIGHT...BUT TIMING IN QUESTION.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. FOR NOW...MAY SEE FRONTAL SYSTEM TRY TO WORK S OUT OF
QUEBEC AROUND LATE THU/THU NIGHT TIMEFRAME. QUESTION WILL ALSO BE
HOW MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
DID KEEP ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR FOR THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WITH THIS...BUT CAN
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM SO DID MENTION THIS. CURRENT FORECAST
SUGGESTS A DRIER AND COOLER DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...BUT EXPECT LOWERING CIGS BACK TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT.
SCT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY W. WE ARE
FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THIS TREND BUT TIMING IS LESS CERTAIN. WE ALSO
HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...BEST CHANCE FOR FOG APPEARS TO BE IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY WITH AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH
AND EAST. A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE...MAINLY NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
DEVELOPING IN NORMAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
THIS EVENING. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE A FEW HOURS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN FORECAST INDICATES.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
TONIGHT. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE A FEW HOURS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN FORECAST INDICATES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT. SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

E/NE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS COULD GUST TO
15-20 KT TONIGHT INTO SAT GIVEN MODEST GRADIENT IN PLACE...BUT A
DECREASE IN WIND EXPECTED LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT AS
THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO REGION.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PROBABILITY
OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING S SWELL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 222050
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
450 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...OTHERWISE
DRY THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND IS
LIKELY DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONT
MAY APPROACH FROM QUEBEC LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND W MA INTO S NH
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE ALSO ISOLD SHOWERS IN SE NEW ENG.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROTATING SOUTH INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT SO EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR. LATER TONIGHT...THE COLUMN BEGINS
TO DRY FROM THE NORTH AS NOTED BY DECREASING PWATS AND MUCH LOWER
KI VALUES APPROACHING FROM THE NE. BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS WILL
BE BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

STRATUS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TONIGHT WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. SOME FOG LIKELY AS WELL BUT WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE IN EASTERN NEW ENG AS MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES IN
OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND LAST SHORTWAVE SWINGS SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT AT THE SAME TIME MID LEVEL DRYING IS MOVING IN SO
EXPECT LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN N/NW ZONES
AS A SECONDARY AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND KI VALUES MOVES IN FROM
THE N. HOWEVER...IMPROVEMENT AND PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS THE TROF SHIFTS S OF THE REGION. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN
SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO SNE WHICH WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...PATCHY DENSE RADIATION FOG EXPECTED IN
NORMAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD
* WARMER...MORE HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN AROUND EARLY TO MIDDLE
  PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK
* UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM QUEBEC
  LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN START TO DIVERGE AROUND THE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT OUT OF
QUEBEC. ALSO NOTING MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING A SYSTEM AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH OUT OF THE TROPICS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE ENSEMBLES WITH LESSER EMPHASIS PLACED ON
THE 00Z/12Z OP RUNS LATE NEXT WEEK. 00Z/12Z ECMWF RUNS SEEM A BIT
TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON THU...WHILE
THE 12Z GFS BRINGS THE FRONT ACROSS LATE THU NIGHT/FRI...KIND OF
CATCHING UP TO THE EC. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER WITH REGARDS
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE REGION...WHICH
MAY SLOW THINGS DOWN FURTHER.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...HIGH PRES AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD DOWN THE COAST
OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE LOWER
70S ALONG THE COAST...RANGING UP TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE
MARITIMES TO THE MID ATLC STATES OVER TIME...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE TOP OF THE REGION ON MONDAY THAT SLOWLY SINKS S. THIS
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO S-SW...BRINGING MILDER AND MORE
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER-MID 80S DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH LIGHT PRES GRADIENT ON
MON AND TUE...SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP KEEPING IT A BIT
COOLER ALONG THE SHORELINE. ONCE THE S-SW FLOW IS ESTABLISHED...
TEMPS ALONG THE S COAST MAY ALSO BE A BIT COOLER ON WED. SOME
CLOUDS MAY START TO MOVE IN WED NIGHT...BUT TIMING IN QUESTION.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. FOR NOW...MAY SEE FRONTAL SYSTEM TRY TO WORK S OUT OF
QUEBEC AROUND LATE THU/THU NIGHT TIMEFRAME. QUESTION WILL ALSO BE
HOW MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
DID KEEP ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR FOR THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WITH THIS...BUT CAN
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM SO DID MENTION THIS. CURRENT FORECAST
SUGGESTS A DRIER AND COOLER DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...BUT EXPECT LOWERING CIGS BACK TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT.
SCT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY W. WE ARE
FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THIS TREND BUT TIMING IS LESS CERTAIN. WE ALSO
HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...BEST CHANCE FOR FOG APPEARS TO BE IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY WITH AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH
AND EAST. A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE...MAINLY NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
DEVELOPING IN NORMAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
THIS EVENING. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE A FEW HOURS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN FORECAST INDICATES.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
TONIGHT. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE A FEW HOURS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN FORECAST INDICATES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT. SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

E/NE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS COULD GUST TO
15-20 KT TONIGHT INTO SAT GIVEN MODEST GRADIENT IN PLACE...BUT A
DECREASE IN WIND EXPECTED LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT AS
THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO REGION.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PROBABILITY
OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING S SWELL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 222045
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
445 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...OTHERWISE
DRY THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND IS LIKELY
NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. DRY WEATHER
WITH A WARMING TREND IS LIKELY DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM QUEBEC LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH A LOW CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND W MA INTO S NH
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE ALSO ISOLD SHOWERS IN SE NEW ENG.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROTATING SOUTH INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT SO EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR. LATER TONIGHT...THE COLUMN BEGINS
TO DRY FROM THE NORTH AS NOTED BY DECREASING PWATS AND MUCH LOWER
KI VALUES APPROACHING FROM THE NE. BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS WILL
BE BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

STRATUS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TONIGHT WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. SOME FOG LIKELY AS WELL BUT WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD. CANT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE IN EASTERN NEW ENG AS MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES IN OVER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND LAST SHORTWAVE SWINGS SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT AT THE SAME TIME MID LEVEL DRYING IS MOVING IN SO
EXPECT LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN N/NW ZONES
AS A SECONDARY AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND KI VALUES MOVES IN FROM
THE N. HOWEVER...IMPROVEMENT AND PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS THE TROF SHIFTS S OF THE REGION. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN
SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO SNE WHICH WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...PATCHY DENSE RADIATION FOG EXPECTED IN
NORMAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD
* WARMER...MORE HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN AROUND EARLY TO MIDDLE
  PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK
* UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM QUEBEC
  LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN START TO DIVERGE AROUND THE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT OUT OF
QUEBEC. ALSO NOTING MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING A SYSTEM AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH OUT OF THE TROPICS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE ENSEMBLES WITH LESSER EMPHASIS PLACED ON
THE 00Z/12Z OP RUNS LATE NEXT WEEK. 00Z/12Z ECMWF RUNS SEEM A BIT
TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON THU...WHILE
THE 12Z GFS BRINGS THE FRONT ACROSS LATE THU NIGHT/FRI...KIND OF
CATCHING UP TO THE EC. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER WITH REGARDS
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE REGION...WHICH
MAY SLOW THINGS DOWN FURTHER.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...HIGH PRES AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD DOWN THE COAST
OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE LOWER
70S ALONG THE COAST...RANGING UP TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE
MARITIMES TO THE MID ATLC STATES OVER TIME...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE TOP OF THE REGION ON MONDAY THAT SLOWLY SINKS S. THIS
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO S-SW...BRINGING MILDER AND MORE
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER-MID 80S DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH LIGHT PRES GRADIENT ON
MON AND TUE...SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP KEEPING IT A BIT
COOLER ALONG THE SHORELINE. ONCE THE S-SW FLOW IS ESTABLISHED...
TEMPS ALONG THE S COAST MAY ALSO BE A BIT COOLER ON WED. SOME
CLOUDS MAY START TO MOVE IN WED NIGHT...BUT TIMING IN QUESTION.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. FOR NOW...MAY SEE FRONTAL SYSTEM TRY TO WORK S OUT OF
QUEBEC AROUND LATE THU/THU NIGHT TIMEFRAME. QUESTION WILL ALSO BE
HOW MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
DID KEEP ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR FOR THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WITH THIS...BUT CAN
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM SO DID MENTION THIS. CURRENT FORECAST
SUGGESTS A DRIER AND COOLER DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...BUT EXPECT LOWERING CIGS BACK TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT.
SCT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY W. WE ARE
FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THIS TREND BUT TIMING IS LESS CERTAIN. WE ALSO
HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...BEST CHANCE FOR FOG APPEARS TO BE IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY WITH AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH
AND EAST. A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE...MAINLY NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
DEVELOPING IN NORMAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
THIS EVENING. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE A FEW HOURS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN FORECAST INDICATES.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
TONIGHT. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE A FEW HOURS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN FORECAST INDICATES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT. SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

E/NE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS COULD GUST TO
15-20 KT TONIGHT INTO SAT GIVEN MODEST GRADIENT IN PLACE...BUT A
DECREASE IN WIND EXPECTED LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT AS
THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO REGION.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PROBABILITY
OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING S SWELL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 222045
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
445 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...OTHERWISE
DRY THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND IS LIKELY
NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. DRY WEATHER
WITH A WARMING TREND IS LIKELY DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM QUEBEC LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH A LOW CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND W MA INTO S NH
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE ALSO ISOLD SHOWERS IN SE NEW ENG.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROTATING SOUTH INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT SO EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR. LATER TONIGHT...THE COLUMN BEGINS
TO DRY FROM THE NORTH AS NOTED BY DECREASING PWATS AND MUCH LOWER
KI VALUES APPROACHING FROM THE NE. BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS WILL
BE BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

STRATUS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TONIGHT WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. SOME FOG LIKELY AS WELL BUT WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD. CANT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE IN EASTERN NEW ENG AS MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES IN OVER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND LAST SHORTWAVE SWINGS SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT AT THE SAME TIME MID LEVEL DRYING IS MOVING IN SO
EXPECT LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN N/NW ZONES
AS A SECONDARY AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND KI VALUES MOVES IN FROM
THE N. HOWEVER...IMPROVEMENT AND PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS THE TROF SHIFTS S OF THE REGION. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN
SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO SNE WHICH WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...PATCHY DENSE RADIATION FOG EXPECTED IN
NORMAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD
* WARMER...MORE HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN AROUND EARLY TO MIDDLE
  PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK
* UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM QUEBEC
  LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN START TO DIVERGE AROUND THE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT OUT OF
QUEBEC. ALSO NOTING MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING A SYSTEM AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH OUT OF THE TROPICS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE ENSEMBLES WITH LESSER EMPHASIS PLACED ON
THE 00Z/12Z OP RUNS LATE NEXT WEEK. 00Z/12Z ECMWF RUNS SEEM A BIT
TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON THU...WHILE
THE 12Z GFS BRINGS THE FRONT ACROSS LATE THU NIGHT/FRI...KIND OF
CATCHING UP TO THE EC. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER WITH REGARDS
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE REGION...WHICH
MAY SLOW THINGS DOWN FURTHER.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...HIGH PRES AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD DOWN THE COAST
OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE LOWER
70S ALONG THE COAST...RANGING UP TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE
MARITIMES TO THE MID ATLC STATES OVER TIME...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE TOP OF THE REGION ON MONDAY THAT SLOWLY SINKS S. THIS
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO S-SW...BRINGING MILDER AND MORE
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER-MID 80S DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH LIGHT PRES GRADIENT ON
MON AND TUE...SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP KEEPING IT A BIT
COOLER ALONG THE SHORELINE. ONCE THE S-SW FLOW IS ESTABLISHED...
TEMPS ALONG THE S COAST MAY ALSO BE A BIT COOLER ON WED. SOME
CLOUDS MAY START TO MOVE IN WED NIGHT...BUT TIMING IN QUESTION.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. FOR NOW...MAY SEE FRONTAL SYSTEM TRY TO WORK S OUT OF
QUEBEC AROUND LATE THU/THU NIGHT TIMEFRAME. QUESTION WILL ALSO BE
HOW MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
DID KEEP ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR FOR THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WITH THIS...BUT CAN
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM SO DID MENTION THIS. CURRENT FORECAST
SUGGESTS A DRIER AND COOLER DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...BUT EXPECT LOWERING CIGS BACK TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT.
SCT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY W. WE ARE
FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THIS TREND BUT TIMING IS LESS CERTAIN. WE ALSO
HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...BEST CHANCE FOR FOG APPEARS TO BE IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY WITH AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH
AND EAST. A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE...MAINLY NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
DEVELOPING IN NORMAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
THIS EVENING. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE A FEW HOURS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN FORECAST INDICATES.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
TONIGHT. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE A FEW HOURS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN FORECAST INDICATES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT. SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

E/NE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS COULD GUST TO
15-20 KT TONIGHT INTO SAT GIVEN MODEST GRADIENT IN PLACE...BUT A
DECREASE IN WIND EXPECTED LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT AS
THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO REGION.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PROBABILITY
OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING S SWELL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 222045
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
445 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...OTHERWISE
DRY THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND IS LIKELY
NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. DRY WEATHER
WITH A WARMING TREND IS LIKELY DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM QUEBEC LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH A LOW CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND W MA INTO S NH
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE ALSO ISOLD SHOWERS IN SE NEW ENG.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROTATING SOUTH INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT SO EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR. LATER TONIGHT...THE COLUMN BEGINS
TO DRY FROM THE NORTH AS NOTED BY DECREASING PWATS AND MUCH LOWER
KI VALUES APPROACHING FROM THE NE. BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS WILL
BE BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

STRATUS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TONIGHT WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. SOME FOG LIKELY AS WELL BUT WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD. CANT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE IN EASTERN NEW ENG AS MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES IN OVER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND LAST SHORTWAVE SWINGS SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT AT THE SAME TIME MID LEVEL DRYING IS MOVING IN SO
EXPECT LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN N/NW ZONES
AS A SECONDARY AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND KI VALUES MOVES IN FROM
THE N. HOWEVER...IMPROVEMENT AND PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS THE TROF SHIFTS S OF THE REGION. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN
SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO SNE WHICH WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...PATCHY DENSE RADIATION FOG EXPECTED IN
NORMAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD
* WARMER...MORE HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN AROUND EARLY TO MIDDLE
  PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK
* UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM QUEBEC
  LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN START TO DIVERGE AROUND THE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT OUT OF
QUEBEC. ALSO NOTING MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING A SYSTEM AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH OUT OF THE TROPICS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE ENSEMBLES WITH LESSER EMPHASIS PLACED ON
THE 00Z/12Z OP RUNS LATE NEXT WEEK. 00Z/12Z ECMWF RUNS SEEM A BIT
TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON THU...WHILE
THE 12Z GFS BRINGS THE FRONT ACROSS LATE THU NIGHT/FRI...KIND OF
CATCHING UP TO THE EC. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER WITH REGARDS
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE REGION...WHICH
MAY SLOW THINGS DOWN FURTHER.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...HIGH PRES AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD DOWN THE COAST
OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE LOWER
70S ALONG THE COAST...RANGING UP TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE
MARITIMES TO THE MID ATLC STATES OVER TIME...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE TOP OF THE REGION ON MONDAY THAT SLOWLY SINKS S. THIS
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO S-SW...BRINGING MILDER AND MORE
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER-MID 80S DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH LIGHT PRES GRADIENT ON
MON AND TUE...SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP KEEPING IT A BIT
COOLER ALONG THE SHORELINE. ONCE THE S-SW FLOW IS ESTABLISHED...
TEMPS ALONG THE S COAST MAY ALSO BE A BIT COOLER ON WED. SOME
CLOUDS MAY START TO MOVE IN WED NIGHT...BUT TIMING IN QUESTION.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. FOR NOW...MAY SEE FRONTAL SYSTEM TRY TO WORK S OUT OF
QUEBEC AROUND LATE THU/THU NIGHT TIMEFRAME. QUESTION WILL ALSO BE
HOW MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
DID KEEP ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR FOR THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WITH THIS...BUT CAN
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM SO DID MENTION THIS. CURRENT FORECAST
SUGGESTS A DRIER AND COOLER DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...BUT EXPECT LOWERING CIGS BACK TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT.
SCT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY W. WE ARE
FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THIS TREND BUT TIMING IS LESS CERTAIN. WE ALSO
HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...BEST CHANCE FOR FOG APPEARS TO BE IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY WITH AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH
AND EAST. A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE...MAINLY NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
DEVELOPING IN NORMAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
THIS EVENING. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE A FEW HOURS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN FORECAST INDICATES.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
TONIGHT. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE A FEW HOURS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN FORECAST INDICATES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT. SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

E/NE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS COULD GUST TO
15-20 KT TONIGHT INTO SAT GIVEN MODEST GRADIENT IN PLACE...BUT A
DECREASE IN WIND EXPECTED LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT AS
THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO REGION.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PROBABILITY
OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING S SWELL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 222045
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
445 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...OTHERWISE
DRY THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND IS LIKELY
NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. DRY WEATHER
WITH A WARMING TREND IS LIKELY DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM QUEBEC LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH A LOW CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND W MA INTO S NH
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE ALSO ISOLD SHOWERS IN SE NEW ENG.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROTATING SOUTH INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT SO EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR. LATER TONIGHT...THE COLUMN BEGINS
TO DRY FROM THE NORTH AS NOTED BY DECREASING PWATS AND MUCH LOWER
KI VALUES APPROACHING FROM THE NE. BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS WILL
BE BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

STRATUS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TONIGHT WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. SOME FOG LIKELY AS WELL BUT WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD. CANT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE IN EASTERN NEW ENG AS MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES IN OVER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND LAST SHORTWAVE SWINGS SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT AT THE SAME TIME MID LEVEL DRYING IS MOVING IN SO
EXPECT LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN N/NW ZONES
AS A SECONDARY AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND KI VALUES MOVES IN FROM
THE N. HOWEVER...IMPROVEMENT AND PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS THE TROF SHIFTS S OF THE REGION. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN
SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO SNE WHICH WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...PATCHY DENSE RADIATION FOG EXPECTED IN
NORMAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD
* WARMER...MORE HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN AROUND EARLY TO MIDDLE
  PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK
* UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM QUEBEC
  LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN START TO DIVERGE AROUND THE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT OUT OF
QUEBEC. ALSO NOTING MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING A SYSTEM AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH OUT OF THE TROPICS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE ENSEMBLES WITH LESSER EMPHASIS PLACED ON
THE 00Z/12Z OP RUNS LATE NEXT WEEK. 00Z/12Z ECMWF RUNS SEEM A BIT
TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON THU...WHILE
THE 12Z GFS BRINGS THE FRONT ACROSS LATE THU NIGHT/FRI...KIND OF
CATCHING UP TO THE EC. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER WITH REGARDS
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE REGION...WHICH
MAY SLOW THINGS DOWN FURTHER.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...HIGH PRES AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD DOWN THE COAST
OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE LOWER
70S ALONG THE COAST...RANGING UP TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE
MARITIMES TO THE MID ATLC STATES OVER TIME...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE TOP OF THE REGION ON MONDAY THAT SLOWLY SINKS S. THIS
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO S-SW...BRINGING MILDER AND MORE
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER-MID 80S DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH LIGHT PRES GRADIENT ON
MON AND TUE...SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP KEEPING IT A BIT
COOLER ALONG THE SHORELINE. ONCE THE S-SW FLOW IS ESTABLISHED...
TEMPS ALONG THE S COAST MAY ALSO BE A BIT COOLER ON WED. SOME
CLOUDS MAY START TO MOVE IN WED NIGHT...BUT TIMING IN QUESTION.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. FOR NOW...MAY SEE FRONTAL SYSTEM TRY TO WORK S OUT OF
QUEBEC AROUND LATE THU/THU NIGHT TIMEFRAME. QUESTION WILL ALSO BE
HOW MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
DID KEEP ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR FOR THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WITH THIS...BUT CAN
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM SO DID MENTION THIS. CURRENT FORECAST
SUGGESTS A DRIER AND COOLER DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...BUT EXPECT LOWERING CIGS BACK TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT.
SCT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY W. WE ARE
FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THIS TREND BUT TIMING IS LESS CERTAIN. WE ALSO
HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...BEST CHANCE FOR FOG APPEARS TO BE IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY WITH AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH
AND EAST. A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE...MAINLY NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
DEVELOPING IN NORMAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
THIS EVENING. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE A FEW HOURS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN FORECAST INDICATES.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
TONIGHT. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE A FEW HOURS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN FORECAST INDICATES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT. SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

E/NE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS COULD GUST TO
15-20 KT TONIGHT INTO SAT GIVEN MODEST GRADIENT IN PLACE...BUT A
DECREASE IN WIND EXPECTED LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT AS
THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO REGION.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PROBABILITY
OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING S SWELL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221927
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
327 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...OTHERWISE
DRY THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND IS LIKELY
NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE WITH NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND W MA INTO S NH THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE ALSO ISOLD SHOWERS IN SE NEW ENG. ANOTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROTATING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT SO
EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
INTERIOR. LATER TONIGHT...THE COLUMN BEGINS TO DRY FROM THE NORTH
AS NOTED BY DECREASING PWATS AND MUCH LOWER KI VALUES APPROACHING
FROM THE NE. BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS WILL BE BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

STRATUS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TONIGHT WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. SOME FOG LIKELY AS WELL BUT WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD. CANT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE IN EASTERN NEW ENG AS MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES IN OVER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND LAST SHORTWAVE SWINGS SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT AT THE SAME TIME MID LEVEL DRYING IS MOVING IN SO
EXPECT LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN N/NW ZONES
AS A SECONDARY AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND KI VALUES MOVES IN FROM
THE N. HOWEVER...IMPROVEMENT AND PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS THE TROF SHIFTS S OF THE REGION. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN
SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO SNE WHICH WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...PATCHY DENSE RADIATION FOG EXPECTED IN
NORMAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT

21/00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. THEN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...
MAKING FOR A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ONWARD.

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN USA. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH...WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN
LINGERING THIS TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. STILL AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THINKING 21/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...KEPT A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A
MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THIS IS WHERE MODELS START TO DIVERGE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
FRONT...BUT NEITHER IS AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE CANADIAN. WILL TAKE A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH THE TIMING FOR NOW.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY
SURPRISED IF THE ULTIMATE TIMING TURNS OUT TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...BUT EXPECT LOWERING CIGS BACK TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT.
SCT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY W. WE ARE
FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THIS TREND BUT TIMING IS LESS CERTAIN. WE ALSO
HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...BEST CHANCE FOR FOG APPEARS TO BE IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY WITH AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH
AND EAST. A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE...MAINLY NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
DEVELOPING IN NORMAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
THIS EVENING. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE A FEW HOURS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN FORECAST INDICATES.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
TONIGHT. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE A FEW HOURS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN FORECAST INDICATES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

E/NE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS COULD GUST TO
15-20 KT TONIGHT INTO SAT GIVEN MODEST GRADIENT IN PLACE...BUT A
DECREASE IN WIND EXPECTED LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT AS
THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO REGION.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS COULD APPROACH 5
FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THOUGH. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/KJC
MARINE...BELK/KJC



000
FXUS61 KBOX 221927
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
327 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...OTHERWISE
DRY THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND IS LIKELY
NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE WITH NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND W MA INTO S NH THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE ALSO ISOLD SHOWERS IN SE NEW ENG. ANOTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROTATING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT SO
EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
INTERIOR. LATER TONIGHT...THE COLUMN BEGINS TO DRY FROM THE NORTH
AS NOTED BY DECREASING PWATS AND MUCH LOWER KI VALUES APPROACHING
FROM THE NE. BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS WILL BE BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

STRATUS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TONIGHT WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. SOME FOG LIKELY AS WELL BUT WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD. CANT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE IN EASTERN NEW ENG AS MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES IN OVER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND LAST SHORTWAVE SWINGS SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT AT THE SAME TIME MID LEVEL DRYING IS MOVING IN SO
EXPECT LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN N/NW ZONES
AS A SECONDARY AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND KI VALUES MOVES IN FROM
THE N. HOWEVER...IMPROVEMENT AND PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS THE TROF SHIFTS S OF THE REGION. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN
SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO SNE WHICH WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...PATCHY DENSE RADIATION FOG EXPECTED IN
NORMAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT

21/00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. THEN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...
MAKING FOR A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ONWARD.

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN USA. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH...WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN
LINGERING THIS TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. STILL AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THINKING 21/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...KEPT A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A
MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THIS IS WHERE MODELS START TO DIVERGE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
FRONT...BUT NEITHER IS AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE CANADIAN. WILL TAKE A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH THE TIMING FOR NOW.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY
SURPRISED IF THE ULTIMATE TIMING TURNS OUT TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...BUT EXPECT LOWERING CIGS BACK TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT.
SCT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY W. WE ARE
FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THIS TREND BUT TIMING IS LESS CERTAIN. WE ALSO
HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...BEST CHANCE FOR FOG APPEARS TO BE IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY WITH AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH
AND EAST. A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE...MAINLY NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
DEVELOPING IN NORMAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
THIS EVENING. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE A FEW HOURS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN FORECAST INDICATES.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
TONIGHT. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE A FEW HOURS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN FORECAST INDICATES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

E/NE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS COULD GUST TO
15-20 KT TONIGHT INTO SAT GIVEN MODEST GRADIENT IN PLACE...BUT A
DECREASE IN WIND EXPECTED LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT AS
THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO REGION.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS COULD APPROACH 5
FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THOUGH. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/KJC
MARINE...BELK/KJC




000
FXUS61 KGYX 221921
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWFA ATTM. THIS
CONVERGENT ZONE IS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY FROM A KHIE TO
KPWM LINE AND SWWD. SOME WIDELY SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THRU THIS EVENING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN ME. THE
DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY...WHILE THOSE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CONVERGENT AXIS WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE STAYING POWER
INTO THE EVENING.

OTHERWISE...WE WILL SEE A SLOW CLEARING TREND AS THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS BREAK UP. THESE POCKETS OF CLEARING WILL HELP TEMPS COOL
QUICKLY. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW AREAS OF VALLEY FOG
COINCIDENT WITH THESE HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME SUN IN THE MORNING...BUT THIS WILL
QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES. THESE
WILL MOSTLY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...AS THE CONVERGENT ZONE
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. EXPECT AN EARLY AFTERNOON
PEAK IN CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS MOVING SWWD IN THE
NELY FLOW. THIS WILL BE A COOL FLOW AS WELL...AND SEASONABLY COOL
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED YET AGAIN...DESPITE BEING A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY.

CLEARING WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO QUICKLY COOLING TEMPS AT
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG LIKELY BEING MORE
WIDESPREAD AS HIGH PRES TAKES CONTROL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WITH SEA
BREEZES ALONG THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A MODERATING TREND WILL CONTINUE INLAND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THAT HAVE YET TO BE RESOLVED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AS ANY TROPICAL
ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 2000 FT IN SHRA...BUT VSBYS WILL
REMAIN P6SM. PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG. NOT CONFIDENT IN DEGREE OF CLEARING...SO DIDN/T HIT IT
HARD IN THE TAFS...OPTING FOR A TEMPO 2SM AT THE FAVORED
LOCATIONS.

COULD SEE MORE WIDELY SCT SHRA SAT ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR OR BETTER CONDITIONS IN THESE. MORE
WIDESPREAD CLEARING SAT NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO MORE EXTENSIVE VALLEY
FOG AND IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...NO FLAGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

LEGRO/JC



000
FXUS61 KGYX 221921
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWFA ATTM. THIS
CONVERGENT ZONE IS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY FROM A KHIE TO
KPWM LINE AND SWWD. SOME WIDELY SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THRU THIS EVENING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN ME. THE
DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY...WHILE THOSE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CONVERGENT AXIS WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE STAYING POWER
INTO THE EVENING.

OTHERWISE...WE WILL SEE A SLOW CLEARING TREND AS THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS BREAK UP. THESE POCKETS OF CLEARING WILL HELP TEMPS COOL
QUICKLY. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW AREAS OF VALLEY FOG
COINCIDENT WITH THESE HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME SUN IN THE MORNING...BUT THIS WILL
QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES. THESE
WILL MOSTLY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...AS THE CONVERGENT ZONE
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. EXPECT AN EARLY AFTERNOON
PEAK IN CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS MOVING SWWD IN THE
NELY FLOW. THIS WILL BE A COOL FLOW AS WELL...AND SEASONABLY COOL
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED YET AGAIN...DESPITE BEING A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY.

CLEARING WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO QUICKLY COOLING TEMPS AT
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG LIKELY BEING MORE
WIDESPREAD AS HIGH PRES TAKES CONTROL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WITH SEA
BREEZES ALONG THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A MODERATING TREND WILL CONTINUE INLAND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THAT HAVE YET TO BE RESOLVED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AS ANY TROPICAL
ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 2000 FT IN SHRA...BUT VSBYS WILL
REMAIN P6SM. PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG. NOT CONFIDENT IN DEGREE OF CLEARING...SO DIDN/T HIT IT
HARD IN THE TAFS...OPTING FOR A TEMPO 2SM AT THE FAVORED
LOCATIONS.

COULD SEE MORE WIDELY SCT SHRA SAT ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR OR BETTER CONDITIONS IN THESE. MORE
WIDESPREAD CLEARING SAT NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO MORE EXTENSIVE VALLEY
FOG AND IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...NO FLAGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

LEGRO/JC



000
FXUS61 KGYX 221921
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWFA ATTM. THIS
CONVERGENT ZONE IS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY FROM A KHIE TO
KPWM LINE AND SWWD. SOME WIDELY SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THRU THIS EVENING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN ME. THE
DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY...WHILE THOSE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CONVERGENT AXIS WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE STAYING POWER
INTO THE EVENING.

OTHERWISE...WE WILL SEE A SLOW CLEARING TREND AS THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS BREAK UP. THESE POCKETS OF CLEARING WILL HELP TEMPS COOL
QUICKLY. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW AREAS OF VALLEY FOG
COINCIDENT WITH THESE HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME SUN IN THE MORNING...BUT THIS WILL
QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES. THESE
WILL MOSTLY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...AS THE CONVERGENT ZONE
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. EXPECT AN EARLY AFTERNOON
PEAK IN CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS MOVING SWWD IN THE
NELY FLOW. THIS WILL BE A COOL FLOW AS WELL...AND SEASONABLY COOL
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED YET AGAIN...DESPITE BEING A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY.

CLEARING WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO QUICKLY COOLING TEMPS AT
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG LIKELY BEING MORE
WIDESPREAD AS HIGH PRES TAKES CONTROL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WITH SEA
BREEZES ALONG THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A MODERATING TREND WILL CONTINUE INLAND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THAT HAVE YET TO BE RESOLVED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AS ANY TROPICAL
ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 2000 FT IN SHRA...BUT VSBYS WILL
REMAIN P6SM. PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG. NOT CONFIDENT IN DEGREE OF CLEARING...SO DIDN/T HIT IT
HARD IN THE TAFS...OPTING FOR A TEMPO 2SM AT THE FAVORED
LOCATIONS.

COULD SEE MORE WIDELY SCT SHRA SAT ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR OR BETTER CONDITIONS IN THESE. MORE
WIDESPREAD CLEARING SAT NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO MORE EXTENSIVE VALLEY
FOG AND IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...NO FLAGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

LEGRO/JC



000
FXUS61 KGYX 221921
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWFA ATTM. THIS
CONVERGENT ZONE IS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY FROM A KHIE TO
KPWM LINE AND SWWD. SOME WIDELY SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THRU THIS EVENING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN ME. THE
DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY...WHILE THOSE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CONVERGENT AXIS WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE STAYING POWER
INTO THE EVENING.

OTHERWISE...WE WILL SEE A SLOW CLEARING TREND AS THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS BREAK UP. THESE POCKETS OF CLEARING WILL HELP TEMPS COOL
QUICKLY. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW AREAS OF VALLEY FOG
COINCIDENT WITH THESE HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME SUN IN THE MORNING...BUT THIS WILL
QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES. THESE
WILL MOSTLY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...AS THE CONVERGENT ZONE
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. EXPECT AN EARLY AFTERNOON
PEAK IN CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS MOVING SWWD IN THE
NELY FLOW. THIS WILL BE A COOL FLOW AS WELL...AND SEASONABLY COOL
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED YET AGAIN...DESPITE BEING A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY.

CLEARING WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO QUICKLY COOLING TEMPS AT
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG LIKELY BEING MORE
WIDESPREAD AS HIGH PRES TAKES CONTROL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WITH SEA
BREEZES ALONG THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A MODERATING TREND WILL CONTINUE INLAND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THAT HAVE YET TO BE RESOLVED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AS ANY TROPICAL
ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 2000 FT IN SHRA...BUT VSBYS WILL
REMAIN P6SM. PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG. NOT CONFIDENT IN DEGREE OF CLEARING...SO DIDN/T HIT IT
HARD IN THE TAFS...OPTING FOR A TEMPO 2SM AT THE FAVORED
LOCATIONS.

COULD SEE MORE WIDELY SCT SHRA SAT ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR OR BETTER CONDITIONS IN THESE. MORE
WIDESPREAD CLEARING SAT NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO MORE EXTENSIVE VALLEY
FOG AND IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...NO FLAGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

LEGRO/JC



000
FXUS61 KBOX 221749
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
149 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THIS WEEKEND. A
WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...
AREA OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CT VALLEY IN NW
MA AND SW NH WITH SECOND AREA PERSISTING OVER THE OCEAN TO THE
SOUTH. ALSO STILL A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS POPPING UP IN RI AND NE MA.
MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE ACROSS W NEW
ENG...BUT CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER ELSEWHERE AS WEAK IMPULSES
ROTATE SWD INTO THE REGION. ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY...OTHERWISE
FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS HANGING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENG WITH WEAK
IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE TROF. MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
DECREASED IN COVERAGE WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING OVER THE
OUTER CAPE AND SE MA. HI RES GUIDANCE INDICATING MAIN FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS W NEW ENG WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTS. NO SFC INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF AS SNE
REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF MARITIME AIRMASS WITH HIGH PRES NOSING
DOWN FROM E CANADA. INSTABILITY AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST.
IT WILL BE A COOL DAY UNDER THE CLOUD COVER WITH TEMPS REMAINING
MOSTLY IN THE 60S IN THE INTERIOR...BUT LOW 70S IN THE LOWER CT
VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF RI/SE MA WHERE SOME THINNING OF CLOUD COVER
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
AM NOTING SIMILAR SETUP AS THU NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH N-S ACROSS THE REGION AND PHASE WITH OFFSHORE LONGWAVE TROF
CONNECTED TO CUTOFF IN ATLANTIC CANADA. TWO CONDITIONS ARE
DIFFERENT HOWEVER...PWATS ARE A BIT LOWER /1.0-1.25 INCHES AS
OPPOSED TO 1.5/ AND K INDEX VALUES ARE LOWER AS DRIER AIR INTRUDES
THROUGH THE COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN. THEREFORE...SAVE FOR THE
ADVECTION OF LEFTOVER CONVECTION FROM THE W...SUSPECT THAT -SHRA
ARE LIKELY TO BE A BIT WEAKER AND LESS WIDESPREAD THAN THU NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WILL STILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY FOR
W AND NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ONE OTHER ISSUE IS FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS MOVING INTO E PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO NOTE AN AREA OF MOISTURE
BACKING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO CONTINUED
ELY COMPONENT OF THE FLOW. DO NOTE IN BUFKIT PROFILES THAT THERE
IS A LAYER OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE SFC WHICH MAY NEGATE FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IF STRATUS BACKS IN...LIMITING RADIATIVE
PROCESSES. THEREFORE...WILL MAINLY MENTION LOW CLOUDS...BUT MAY
NEED TO MONITOR FOR DRIZZLE WITH DRIER MOVING IN OVER MOISTURE
POOLING IN THE LOW-MID LVLS. SHOULD SOME AREAS RADIATE...FOG
REMAINS A RISK.

SAT...
ONE LAST PARTING SHOT FOR SHOWERS SAT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY FORCES
SOME DIGGING AND SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE OFFSHORE LONGWAVE
TROF. LEFTOVER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT ARE
LIKELY TO LEAD TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER DURING THE EARLY
HALF OF THE DAY...ALONG WITH SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM PORTIONS OF
THE MERRIMACK VALLEY E AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...IMPROVEMENT BY THE
AFTERNOON LOOKS POSSIBLE THANKS TO GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS FROM
THE S SHIFT IN THE TROF. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC INVERTED RIDGING TO
GRADUALLY REGAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD EVENING. IN
FACT...DESPITE THE CLOUDY START TO THE DAY...ITS POSSIBLE MANY
LOCATIONS STILL GET TO SEE THE SUNSET /EVEN IN THE E WHICH WILL
LIKELY TAKE THE LONGEST TO BREAK OUT/. HIGHS REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL THANKS TO THE EARLY CLOUD COVER LIMITING DIURNAL
INFLUENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT

21/00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. THEN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...
MAKING FOR A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ONWARD.

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN USA. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH...WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN
LINGERING THIS TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. STILL AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THINKING 21/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...KEPT A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A
MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THIS IS WHERE MODELS START TO DIVERGE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
FRONT...BUT NEITHER IS AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE CANADIAN. WILL TAKE A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH THE TIMING FOR NOW.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY
SURPRISED IF THE ULTIMATE TIMING TURNS OUT TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...BUT EXPECT LOWERING CIGS BACK TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT.
SCT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY W. WE ARE
FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THIS TREND BUT TIMING IS LESS CERTAIN. WE ALSO
HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...BEST CHANCE FOR FOG APPEARS TO BE IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY WITH AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH
AND EAST. A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE...MAINLY NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
DEVELOPING IN NORMAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
THIS EVENING. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE A FEW HOURS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN FORECAST INDICATES.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
TONIGHT. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE A FEW HOURS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN FORECAST INDICATES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

E TO NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES TO THE NE SLOWLY
REGAINS CONTROL. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND NIGHT TONIGHT...PERIODS
OF WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH A SLOWLY
BUILDING SWELL. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 4 FT EVEN ON THE SE AND S
WATERS. THEREFORE...NO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES. SOME FOG AND SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS AT TIMES AS WELL...MAINLY THIS
MORNING...AND ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS COULD APPROACH 5
FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THOUGH. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/KJC
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221749
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
149 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THIS WEEKEND. A
WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...
AREA OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CT VALLEY IN NW
MA AND SW NH WITH SECOND AREA PERSISTING OVER THE OCEAN TO THE
SOUTH. ALSO STILL A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS POPPING UP IN RI AND NE MA.
MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE ACROSS W NEW
ENG...BUT CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER ELSEWHERE AS WEAK IMPULSES
ROTATE SWD INTO THE REGION. ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY...OTHERWISE
FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS HANGING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENG WITH WEAK
IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE TROF. MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
DECREASED IN COVERAGE WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING OVER THE
OUTER CAPE AND SE MA. HI RES GUIDANCE INDICATING MAIN FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS W NEW ENG WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTS. NO SFC INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF AS SNE
REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF MARITIME AIRMASS WITH HIGH PRES NOSING
DOWN FROM E CANADA. INSTABILITY AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST.
IT WILL BE A COOL DAY UNDER THE CLOUD COVER WITH TEMPS REMAINING
MOSTLY IN THE 60S IN THE INTERIOR...BUT LOW 70S IN THE LOWER CT
VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF RI/SE MA WHERE SOME THINNING OF CLOUD COVER
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
AM NOTING SIMILAR SETUP AS THU NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH N-S ACROSS THE REGION AND PHASE WITH OFFSHORE LONGWAVE TROF
CONNECTED TO CUTOFF IN ATLANTIC CANADA. TWO CONDITIONS ARE
DIFFERENT HOWEVER...PWATS ARE A BIT LOWER /1.0-1.25 INCHES AS
OPPOSED TO 1.5/ AND K INDEX VALUES ARE LOWER AS DRIER AIR INTRUDES
THROUGH THE COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN. THEREFORE...SAVE FOR THE
ADVECTION OF LEFTOVER CONVECTION FROM THE W...SUSPECT THAT -SHRA
ARE LIKELY TO BE A BIT WEAKER AND LESS WIDESPREAD THAN THU NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WILL STILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY FOR
W AND NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ONE OTHER ISSUE IS FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS MOVING INTO E PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO NOTE AN AREA OF MOISTURE
BACKING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO CONTINUED
ELY COMPONENT OF THE FLOW. DO NOTE IN BUFKIT PROFILES THAT THERE
IS A LAYER OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE SFC WHICH MAY NEGATE FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IF STRATUS BACKS IN...LIMITING RADIATIVE
PROCESSES. THEREFORE...WILL MAINLY MENTION LOW CLOUDS...BUT MAY
NEED TO MONITOR FOR DRIZZLE WITH DRIER MOVING IN OVER MOISTURE
POOLING IN THE LOW-MID LVLS. SHOULD SOME AREAS RADIATE...FOG
REMAINS A RISK.

SAT...
ONE LAST PARTING SHOT FOR SHOWERS SAT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY FORCES
SOME DIGGING AND SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE OFFSHORE LONGWAVE
TROF. LEFTOVER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT ARE
LIKELY TO LEAD TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER DURING THE EARLY
HALF OF THE DAY...ALONG WITH SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM PORTIONS OF
THE MERRIMACK VALLEY E AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...IMPROVEMENT BY THE
AFTERNOON LOOKS POSSIBLE THANKS TO GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS FROM
THE S SHIFT IN THE TROF. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC INVERTED RIDGING TO
GRADUALLY REGAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD EVENING. IN
FACT...DESPITE THE CLOUDY START TO THE DAY...ITS POSSIBLE MANY
LOCATIONS STILL GET TO SEE THE SUNSET /EVEN IN THE E WHICH WILL
LIKELY TAKE THE LONGEST TO BREAK OUT/. HIGHS REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL THANKS TO THE EARLY CLOUD COVER LIMITING DIURNAL
INFLUENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT

21/00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. THEN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...
MAKING FOR A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ONWARD.

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN USA. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH...WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN
LINGERING THIS TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. STILL AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THINKING 21/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...KEPT A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A
MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THIS IS WHERE MODELS START TO DIVERGE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
FRONT...BUT NEITHER IS AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE CANADIAN. WILL TAKE A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH THE TIMING FOR NOW.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY
SURPRISED IF THE ULTIMATE TIMING TURNS OUT TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...BUT EXPECT LOWERING CIGS BACK TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT.
SCT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY W. WE ARE
FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THIS TREND BUT TIMING IS LESS CERTAIN. WE ALSO
HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...BEST CHANCE FOR FOG APPEARS TO BE IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY WITH AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH
AND EAST. A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE...MAINLY NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
DEVELOPING IN NORMAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
THIS EVENING. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE A FEW HOURS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN FORECAST INDICATES.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
TONIGHT. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE A FEW HOURS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN FORECAST INDICATES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

E TO NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES TO THE NE SLOWLY
REGAINS CONTROL. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND NIGHT TONIGHT...PERIODS
OF WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH A SLOWLY
BUILDING SWELL. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 4 FT EVEN ON THE SE AND S
WATERS. THEREFORE...NO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES. SOME FOG AND SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS AT TIMES AS WELL...MAINLY THIS
MORNING...AND ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS COULD APPROACH 5
FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THOUGH. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/KJC
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221749
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
149 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THIS WEEKEND. A
WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...
AREA OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CT VALLEY IN NW
MA AND SW NH WITH SECOND AREA PERSISTING OVER THE OCEAN TO THE
SOUTH. ALSO STILL A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS POPPING UP IN RI AND NE MA.
MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE ACROSS W NEW
ENG...BUT CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER ELSEWHERE AS WEAK IMPULSES
ROTATE SWD INTO THE REGION. ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY...OTHERWISE
FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS HANGING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENG WITH WEAK
IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE TROF. MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
DECREASED IN COVERAGE WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING OVER THE
OUTER CAPE AND SE MA. HI RES GUIDANCE INDICATING MAIN FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS W NEW ENG WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTS. NO SFC INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF AS SNE
REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF MARITIME AIRMASS WITH HIGH PRES NOSING
DOWN FROM E CANADA. INSTABILITY AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST.
IT WILL BE A COOL DAY UNDER THE CLOUD COVER WITH TEMPS REMAINING
MOSTLY IN THE 60S IN THE INTERIOR...BUT LOW 70S IN THE LOWER CT
VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF RI/SE MA WHERE SOME THINNING OF CLOUD COVER
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
AM NOTING SIMILAR SETUP AS THU NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH N-S ACROSS THE REGION AND PHASE WITH OFFSHORE LONGWAVE TROF
CONNECTED TO CUTOFF IN ATLANTIC CANADA. TWO CONDITIONS ARE
DIFFERENT HOWEVER...PWATS ARE A BIT LOWER /1.0-1.25 INCHES AS
OPPOSED TO 1.5/ AND K INDEX VALUES ARE LOWER AS DRIER AIR INTRUDES
THROUGH THE COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN. THEREFORE...SAVE FOR THE
ADVECTION OF LEFTOVER CONVECTION FROM THE W...SUSPECT THAT -SHRA
ARE LIKELY TO BE A BIT WEAKER AND LESS WIDESPREAD THAN THU NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WILL STILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY FOR
W AND NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ONE OTHER ISSUE IS FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS MOVING INTO E PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO NOTE AN AREA OF MOISTURE
BACKING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO CONTINUED
ELY COMPONENT OF THE FLOW. DO NOTE IN BUFKIT PROFILES THAT THERE
IS A LAYER OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE SFC WHICH MAY NEGATE FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IF STRATUS BACKS IN...LIMITING RADIATIVE
PROCESSES. THEREFORE...WILL MAINLY MENTION LOW CLOUDS...BUT MAY
NEED TO MONITOR FOR DRIZZLE WITH DRIER MOVING IN OVER MOISTURE
POOLING IN THE LOW-MID LVLS. SHOULD SOME AREAS RADIATE...FOG
REMAINS A RISK.

SAT...
ONE LAST PARTING SHOT FOR SHOWERS SAT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY FORCES
SOME DIGGING AND SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE OFFSHORE LONGWAVE
TROF. LEFTOVER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT ARE
LIKELY TO LEAD TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER DURING THE EARLY
HALF OF THE DAY...ALONG WITH SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM PORTIONS OF
THE MERRIMACK VALLEY E AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...IMPROVEMENT BY THE
AFTERNOON LOOKS POSSIBLE THANKS TO GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS FROM
THE S SHIFT IN THE TROF. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC INVERTED RIDGING TO
GRADUALLY REGAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD EVENING. IN
FACT...DESPITE THE CLOUDY START TO THE DAY...ITS POSSIBLE MANY
LOCATIONS STILL GET TO SEE THE SUNSET /EVEN IN THE E WHICH WILL
LIKELY TAKE THE LONGEST TO BREAK OUT/. HIGHS REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL THANKS TO THE EARLY CLOUD COVER LIMITING DIURNAL
INFLUENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT

21/00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. THEN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...
MAKING FOR A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ONWARD.

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN USA. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH...WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN
LINGERING THIS TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. STILL AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THINKING 21/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...KEPT A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A
MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THIS IS WHERE MODELS START TO DIVERGE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
FRONT...BUT NEITHER IS AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE CANADIAN. WILL TAKE A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH THE TIMING FOR NOW.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY
SURPRISED IF THE ULTIMATE TIMING TURNS OUT TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...BUT EXPECT LOWERING CIGS BACK TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT.
SCT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY W. WE ARE
FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THIS TREND BUT TIMING IS LESS CERTAIN. WE ALSO
HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...BEST CHANCE FOR FOG APPEARS TO BE IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY WITH AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH
AND EAST. A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE...MAINLY NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
DEVELOPING IN NORMAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
THIS EVENING. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE A FEW HOURS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN FORECAST INDICATES.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
TONIGHT. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE A FEW HOURS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN FORECAST INDICATES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

E TO NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES TO THE NE SLOWLY
REGAINS CONTROL. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND NIGHT TONIGHT...PERIODS
OF WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH A SLOWLY
BUILDING SWELL. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 4 FT EVEN ON THE SE AND S
WATERS. THEREFORE...NO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES. SOME FOG AND SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS AT TIMES AS WELL...MAINLY THIS
MORNING...AND ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS COULD APPROACH 5
FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THOUGH. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/KJC
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221749
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
149 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THIS WEEKEND. A
WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...
AREA OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CT VALLEY IN NW
MA AND SW NH WITH SECOND AREA PERSISTING OVER THE OCEAN TO THE
SOUTH. ALSO STILL A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS POPPING UP IN RI AND NE MA.
MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE ACROSS W NEW
ENG...BUT CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER ELSEWHERE AS WEAK IMPULSES
ROTATE SWD INTO THE REGION. ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY...OTHERWISE
FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS HANGING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENG WITH WEAK
IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE TROF. MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
DECREASED IN COVERAGE WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING OVER THE
OUTER CAPE AND SE MA. HI RES GUIDANCE INDICATING MAIN FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS W NEW ENG WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTS. NO SFC INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF AS SNE
REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF MARITIME AIRMASS WITH HIGH PRES NOSING
DOWN FROM E CANADA. INSTABILITY AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST.
IT WILL BE A COOL DAY UNDER THE CLOUD COVER WITH TEMPS REMAINING
MOSTLY IN THE 60S IN THE INTERIOR...BUT LOW 70S IN THE LOWER CT
VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF RI/SE MA WHERE SOME THINNING OF CLOUD COVER
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
AM NOTING SIMILAR SETUP AS THU NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH N-S ACROSS THE REGION AND PHASE WITH OFFSHORE LONGWAVE TROF
CONNECTED TO CUTOFF IN ATLANTIC CANADA. TWO CONDITIONS ARE
DIFFERENT HOWEVER...PWATS ARE A BIT LOWER /1.0-1.25 INCHES AS
OPPOSED TO 1.5/ AND K INDEX VALUES ARE LOWER AS DRIER AIR INTRUDES
THROUGH THE COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN. THEREFORE...SAVE FOR THE
ADVECTION OF LEFTOVER CONVECTION FROM THE W...SUSPECT THAT -SHRA
ARE LIKELY TO BE A BIT WEAKER AND LESS WIDESPREAD THAN THU NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WILL STILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY FOR
W AND NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ONE OTHER ISSUE IS FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS MOVING INTO E PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO NOTE AN AREA OF MOISTURE
BACKING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO CONTINUED
ELY COMPONENT OF THE FLOW. DO NOTE IN BUFKIT PROFILES THAT THERE
IS A LAYER OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE SFC WHICH MAY NEGATE FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IF STRATUS BACKS IN...LIMITING RADIATIVE
PROCESSES. THEREFORE...WILL MAINLY MENTION LOW CLOUDS...BUT MAY
NEED TO MONITOR FOR DRIZZLE WITH DRIER MOVING IN OVER MOISTURE
POOLING IN THE LOW-MID LVLS. SHOULD SOME AREAS RADIATE...FOG
REMAINS A RISK.

SAT...
ONE LAST PARTING SHOT FOR SHOWERS SAT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY FORCES
SOME DIGGING AND SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE OFFSHORE LONGWAVE
TROF. LEFTOVER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT ARE
LIKELY TO LEAD TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER DURING THE EARLY
HALF OF THE DAY...ALONG WITH SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM PORTIONS OF
THE MERRIMACK VALLEY E AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...IMPROVEMENT BY THE
AFTERNOON LOOKS POSSIBLE THANKS TO GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS FROM
THE S SHIFT IN THE TROF. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC INVERTED RIDGING TO
GRADUALLY REGAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD EVENING. IN
FACT...DESPITE THE CLOUDY START TO THE DAY...ITS POSSIBLE MANY
LOCATIONS STILL GET TO SEE THE SUNSET /EVEN IN THE E WHICH WILL
LIKELY TAKE THE LONGEST TO BREAK OUT/. HIGHS REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL THANKS TO THE EARLY CLOUD COVER LIMITING DIURNAL
INFLUENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT

21/00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. THEN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...
MAKING FOR A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ONWARD.

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN USA. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH...WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN
LINGERING THIS TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. STILL AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THINKING 21/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...KEPT A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A
MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THIS IS WHERE MODELS START TO DIVERGE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
FRONT...BUT NEITHER IS AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE CANADIAN. WILL TAKE A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH THE TIMING FOR NOW.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY
SURPRISED IF THE ULTIMATE TIMING TURNS OUT TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...BUT EXPECT LOWERING CIGS BACK TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT.
SCT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY W. WE ARE
FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THIS TREND BUT TIMING IS LESS CERTAIN. WE ALSO
HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...BEST CHANCE FOR FOG APPEARS TO BE IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY WITH AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH
AND EAST. A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE...MAINLY NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
DEVELOPING IN NORMAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
THIS EVENING. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE A FEW HOURS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN FORECAST INDICATES.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
TONIGHT. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE A FEW HOURS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN FORECAST INDICATES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

E TO NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES TO THE NE SLOWLY
REGAINS CONTROL. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND NIGHT TONIGHT...PERIODS
OF WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH A SLOWLY
BUILDING SWELL. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 4 FT EVEN ON THE SE AND S
WATERS. THEREFORE...NO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES. SOME FOG AND SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS AT TIMES AS WELL...MAINLY THIS
MORNING...AND ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS COULD APPROACH 5
FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THOUGH. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/KJC
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221411
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1011 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THIS WEEKEND. A
WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS HANGING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENG WITH WEAK
IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE TROF. MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
DECREASED IN COVERAGE WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING OVER THE
OUTER CAPE AND SE MA. HI RES GUIDANCE INDICATING MAIN FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS W NEW ENG WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTS. NO SFC INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF AS SNE
REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF MARITIME AIRMASS WITH HIGH PRES NOSING
DOWN FROM E CANADA. INSTABILITY AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST.
IT WILL BE A COOL DAY UNDER THE CLOUD COVER WITH TEMPS REMAINING
MOSTLY IN THE 60S IN THE INTERIOR...BUT LOW 70S IN THE LOWER CT
VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF RI/SE MA WHERE SOME THINNING OF CLOUD
COVER POSSIBLE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
AM NOTING SIMILAR SETUP AS THU NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH N-S ACROSS THE REGION AND PHASE WITH OFFSHORE LONGWAVE TROF
CONNECTED TO CUTOFF IN ATLANTIC CANADA. TWO CONDITIONS ARE
DIFFERENT HOWEVER...PWATS ARE A BIT LOWER /1.0-1.25 INCHES AS
OPPOSED TO 1.5/ AND K INDEX VALUES ARE LOWER AS DRIER AIR INTRUDES
THROUGH THE COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN. THEREFORE...SAVE FOR THE
ADVECTION OF LEFTOVER CONVECTION FROM THE W...SUSPECT THAT -SHRA
ARE LIKELY TO BE A BIT WEAKER AND LESS WIDESPREAD THAN THU NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WILL STILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY FOR
W AND NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ONE OTHER ISSUE IS FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS MOVING INTO E PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO NOTE AN AREA OF MOISTURE
BACKING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO CONTINUED
ELY COMPONENT OF THE FLOW. DO NOTE IN BUFKIT PROFILES THAT THERE
IS A LAYER OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE SFC WHICH MAY NEGATE FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IF STRATUS BACKS IN...LIMITING RADIATIVE
PROCESSES. THEREFORE...WILL MAINLY MENTION LOW CLOUDS...BUT MAY
NEED TO MONITOR FOR DRIZZLE WITH DRIER MOVING IN OVER MOISTURE
POOLING IN THE LOW-MID LVLS. SHOULD SOME AREAS RADIATE...FOG
REMAINS A RISK.

SAT...
ONE LAST PARTING SHOT FOR SHOWERS SAT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY FORCES
SOME DIGGING AND SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE OFFSHORE LONGWAVE
TROF. LEFTOVER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT ARE
LIKELY TO LEAD TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER DURING THE EARLY
HALF OF THE DAY...ALONG WITH SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM PORTIONS OF
THE MERRIMACK VALLEY E AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...IMPROVEMENT BY THE
AFTERNOON LOOKS POSSIBLE THANKS TO GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS FROM
THE S SHIFT IN THE TROF. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC INVERTED RIDGING TO
GRADUALLY REGAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD EVENING. IN
FACT...DESPITE THE CLOUDY START TO THE DAY...ITS POSSIBLE MANY
LOCATIONS STILL GET TO SEE THE SUNSET /EVEN IN THE E WHICH WILL
LIKELY TAKE THE LONGEST TO BREAK OUT/. HIGHS REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL THANKS TO THE EARLY CLOUD COVER LIMITING DIURNAL
INFLUENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT

21/00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. THEN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...
MAKING FOR A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ONWARD.

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN USA. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH...WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN
LINGERING THIS TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. STILL AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THINKING 21/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...KEPT A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A
MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THIS IS WHERE MODELS START TO DIVERGE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
FRONT...BUT NEITHER IS AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE CANADIAN. WILL TAKE A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH THE TIMING FOR NOW.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY
SURPRISED IF THE ULTIMATE TIMING TURNS OUT TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAY...
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE WORCESTER
HILLS WESTWARD. SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION AS WELL. BY
TONIGHT...SHOWERS DISSIPATE BUT THERE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG
IN THE W AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CIGS IN THE E.
THEREFORE...COMPLEX OVERNIGHT SCENARIO...WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

SAT...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT MAYBE AREAS E OF
THE WST-ORH-AFN...WHERE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO THE
DAY IN LOW CIGS. BY AFTERNOON...LIKELY TO SEE VFR ALL LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR TODAY EXCEPT FOR
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT...EASTERLY
FLOW COULD YIELD A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE. SHOULD THESE BE ESTABLISHED...ITS POSSIBLE THEY LINGER
INTO THE MORNING HOURS SAT.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/VFR MAY BOUNCE BACK AND
FORTH THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS. BY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR AND MAY STAY THAT WAY THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

E TO NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES TO THE NE SLOWLY
REGAINS CONTROL. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND NIGHT TONIGHT...PERIODS
OF WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH A SLOWLY
BUILDING SWELL. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 4 FT EVEN ON THE SE AND S
WATERS. THEREFORE...NO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES. SOME FOG AND SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS AT TIMES AS WELL...MAINLY THIS
MORNING...AND ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS COULD APPROACH 5
FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THOUGH. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...KJC/BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 221411
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1011 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THIS WEEKEND. A
WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS HANGING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENG WITH WEAK
IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE TROF. MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
DECREASED IN COVERAGE WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING OVER THE
OUTER CAPE AND SE MA. HI RES GUIDANCE INDICATING MAIN FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS W NEW ENG WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTS. NO SFC INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF AS SNE
REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF MARITIME AIRMASS WITH HIGH PRES NOSING
DOWN FROM E CANADA. INSTABILITY AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST.
IT WILL BE A COOL DAY UNDER THE CLOUD COVER WITH TEMPS REMAINING
MOSTLY IN THE 60S IN THE INTERIOR...BUT LOW 70S IN THE LOWER CT
VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF RI/SE MA WHERE SOME THINNING OF CLOUD
COVER POSSIBLE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
AM NOTING SIMILAR SETUP AS THU NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH N-S ACROSS THE REGION AND PHASE WITH OFFSHORE LONGWAVE TROF
CONNECTED TO CUTOFF IN ATLANTIC CANADA. TWO CONDITIONS ARE
DIFFERENT HOWEVER...PWATS ARE A BIT LOWER /1.0-1.25 INCHES AS
OPPOSED TO 1.5/ AND K INDEX VALUES ARE LOWER AS DRIER AIR INTRUDES
THROUGH THE COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN. THEREFORE...SAVE FOR THE
ADVECTION OF LEFTOVER CONVECTION FROM THE W...SUSPECT THAT -SHRA
ARE LIKELY TO BE A BIT WEAKER AND LESS WIDESPREAD THAN THU NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WILL STILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY FOR
W AND NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ONE OTHER ISSUE IS FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS MOVING INTO E PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO NOTE AN AREA OF MOISTURE
BACKING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO CONTINUED
ELY COMPONENT OF THE FLOW. DO NOTE IN BUFKIT PROFILES THAT THERE
IS A LAYER OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE SFC WHICH MAY NEGATE FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IF STRATUS BACKS IN...LIMITING RADIATIVE
PROCESSES. THEREFORE...WILL MAINLY MENTION LOW CLOUDS...BUT MAY
NEED TO MONITOR FOR DRIZZLE WITH DRIER MOVING IN OVER MOISTURE
POOLING IN THE LOW-MID LVLS. SHOULD SOME AREAS RADIATE...FOG
REMAINS A RISK.

SAT...
ONE LAST PARTING SHOT FOR SHOWERS SAT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY FORCES
SOME DIGGING AND SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE OFFSHORE LONGWAVE
TROF. LEFTOVER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT ARE
LIKELY TO LEAD TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER DURING THE EARLY
HALF OF THE DAY...ALONG WITH SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM PORTIONS OF
THE MERRIMACK VALLEY E AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...IMPROVEMENT BY THE
AFTERNOON LOOKS POSSIBLE THANKS TO GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS FROM
THE S SHIFT IN THE TROF. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC INVERTED RIDGING TO
GRADUALLY REGAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD EVENING. IN
FACT...DESPITE THE CLOUDY START TO THE DAY...ITS POSSIBLE MANY
LOCATIONS STILL GET TO SEE THE SUNSET /EVEN IN THE E WHICH WILL
LIKELY TAKE THE LONGEST TO BREAK OUT/. HIGHS REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL THANKS TO THE EARLY CLOUD COVER LIMITING DIURNAL
INFLUENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT

21/00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. THEN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...
MAKING FOR A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ONWARD.

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN USA. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH...WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN
LINGERING THIS TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. STILL AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THINKING 21/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...KEPT A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A
MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THIS IS WHERE MODELS START TO DIVERGE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
FRONT...BUT NEITHER IS AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE CANADIAN. WILL TAKE A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH THE TIMING FOR NOW.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY
SURPRISED IF THE ULTIMATE TIMING TURNS OUT TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAY...
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE WORCESTER
HILLS WESTWARD. SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION AS WELL. BY
TONIGHT...SHOWERS DISSIPATE BUT THERE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG
IN THE W AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CIGS IN THE E.
THEREFORE...COMPLEX OVERNIGHT SCENARIO...WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

SAT...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT MAYBE AREAS E OF
THE WST-ORH-AFN...WHERE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO THE
DAY IN LOW CIGS. BY AFTERNOON...LIKELY TO SEE VFR ALL LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR TODAY EXCEPT FOR
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT...EASTERLY
FLOW COULD YIELD A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE. SHOULD THESE BE ESTABLISHED...ITS POSSIBLE THEY LINGER
INTO THE MORNING HOURS SAT.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/VFR MAY BOUNCE BACK AND
FORTH THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS. BY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR AND MAY STAY THAT WAY THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

E TO NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES TO THE NE SLOWLY
REGAINS CONTROL. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND NIGHT TONIGHT...PERIODS
OF WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH A SLOWLY
BUILDING SWELL. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 4 FT EVEN ON THE SE AND S
WATERS. THEREFORE...NO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES. SOME FOG AND SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS AT TIMES AS WELL...MAINLY THIS
MORNING...AND ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS COULD APPROACH 5
FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THOUGH. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...KJC/BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KGYX 221410 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1010 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ATTM. HAVE ADJUSTED POP IN THE
NEAR TERM TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. A WEAK S/WV TROF CONTINUES TO
DIVE UNDER SRN NEW ENGLAND. TO THE N A CONVERGENT ZONE WILL EXIST
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AS WELL AS ELY UPSLOPE FLOW FOR MUCH OF WRN
ME. THIS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST CHC SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SRN NH. EVENTUALLY FORECAST
BECOMES DRY FROM N TO S LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISC:
A SHARP UPPER TROF AXIS WILL BE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE LOW LEVEL AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH.
THE UPPER TROF WILL CAUSE SCT MAINLY AFTN DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP BUT OVER SRN AREAS OF NH A MORE PREVALENT AREA OF SHWRS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING WITH SOME LOCALLY HVY AMTS. BY LATE
MORNING THE AXIS OVER SRN AREAS OF NH WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTH ALLOWING
THE PCPN TO BECOME MORE SCT IN NATURE. STILL EXPECTING AVG
RAINFALL AMTS OF ARND 1 INCH OVR MUCH OF SRN NH WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS OF 2-3 INCHES PSBL. IN SOUTHERN MAINE AND NRN NH ONLY
VERY LIGHT AMTS OF QPF EXPECTED...GENERALLY ON AN AVERAGE ONLY
AROUND .10 OR LESS. WENT WITH VERY HIGH POPS INTO THE MORNING OVER
SRN NH AND GENERALLY A CHC POP ELSEWHERE. USED A BLEND OF THE
MODELS FOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH ALLOWING A LARGE CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRES TO BUILD SOUTH WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SUN SHOULD RETURN ON SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL
REMAIN COOL. ONCE AGAIN A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR MIN/MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST. SHOULD SEE A
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AND
RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ON TUESDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS
BOUNDARY SAGS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNERSTORMS COMING TO AN END
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHWRS AND ANY
OCEAN STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. BY LATE MORNING MOSTLY VFR CONDS
BUT WDLY SCT AFTN/EVNG SHWRS/TSTMS WILL LWR CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR.
CONDS BECOME VFR TNGT AND CONTINUE INTO SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 221410 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1010 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ATTM. HAVE ADJUSTED POP IN THE
NEAR TERM TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. A WEAK S/WV TROF CONTINUES TO
DIVE UNDER SRN NEW ENGLAND. TO THE N A CONVERGENT ZONE WILL EXIST
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AS WELL AS ELY UPSLOPE FLOW FOR MUCH OF WRN
ME. THIS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST CHC SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SRN NH. EVENTUALLY FORECAST
BECOMES DRY FROM N TO S LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISC:
A SHARP UPPER TROF AXIS WILL BE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE LOW LEVEL AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH.
THE UPPER TROF WILL CAUSE SCT MAINLY AFTN DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP BUT OVER SRN AREAS OF NH A MORE PREVALENT AREA OF SHWRS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING WITH SOME LOCALLY HVY AMTS. BY LATE
MORNING THE AXIS OVER SRN AREAS OF NH WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTH ALLOWING
THE PCPN TO BECOME MORE SCT IN NATURE. STILL EXPECTING AVG
RAINFALL AMTS OF ARND 1 INCH OVR MUCH OF SRN NH WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS OF 2-3 INCHES PSBL. IN SOUTHERN MAINE AND NRN NH ONLY
VERY LIGHT AMTS OF QPF EXPECTED...GENERALLY ON AN AVERAGE ONLY
AROUND .10 OR LESS. WENT WITH VERY HIGH POPS INTO THE MORNING OVER
SRN NH AND GENERALLY A CHC POP ELSEWHERE. USED A BLEND OF THE
MODELS FOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH ALLOWING A LARGE CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRES TO BUILD SOUTH WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SUN SHOULD RETURN ON SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL
REMAIN COOL. ONCE AGAIN A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR MIN/MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST. SHOULD SEE A
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AND
RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ON TUESDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS
BOUNDARY SAGS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNERSTORMS COMING TO AN END
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHWRS AND ANY
OCEAN STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. BY LATE MORNING MOSTLY VFR CONDS
BUT WDLY SCT AFTN/EVNG SHWRS/TSTMS WILL LWR CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR.
CONDS BECOME VFR TNGT AND CONTINUE INTO SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221126
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
726 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THIS WEEKEND. A
WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
725 AM UPDATE...

LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...AT LEAST IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL TRENDS.
AS SUCH...USED THE HRRR TO TWEAK POPS FOR THIS MORNING. ALSO
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO REFLECT THE LATEST
OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN-SITU THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF VORT-MAX/S MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. PWATS ARE MARGINAL /AROUND TO JUST BELOW 1.5
INCHES/ WITH K-VALES IN THE W ABOUT 30-32. THEREFORE...SUSPECT
THIS THREAT FOR -SHRA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. ESPECIALLY
WERE WEAK CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES ARE ALLOWED TO FORM IN THE
RELATIVELY WEAK NEAR SFC FLOW. WILL CARRY POPS THROUGH MID DAY
MAINLY W OF THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO SRN NH...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR.

OTHERWISE TODAY...THIS FIRST VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO JOIN FORCES
WITH CUTOFF LOW PRES STALLED IN BLOCKING FLOW ACROSS ATLANTIC
CANADA...FORMING A HANGING TROF WHOSE BASE WILL REST TO THE S OF
REGION. NOTE THAT AS THIS TROF DEVELOPS AND A SERIES OF WEAKER
WAVES ROTATE THROUGH...HEIGHTS CONTINUE DECLINE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE DOES ACTUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY...CLOSER TO BETWEEN 1.0-1.25 INCHES AND OVERALL INSTABILITY
/INCLUDING K-VALUES/ DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. GIVEN
THIS...AND THE FACT THAT ANOTHER AXIS OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY
REMAINS TO THE W IN NY THANKS TO WHAT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE CLEAR
SKIES...AND CONTINUED MARINE INFLUENCE THANKS TO E COMPONENT TO
THE FLOW SUSPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO ONCE AGAIN FIRE MAINLY W
OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAY ACTUALLY USURP
SOME OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO WILL ACTUALLY HIGHLIGHT
DECLINING POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT IN THE DUE TO
REMNANT CONVECTION ADVECTING E.

AS MENTIONED...EXPECT A LOT MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TODAY
THANKS TO MARINE INFLUENCE AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT.
THEREFORE...HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S IN SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
AM NOTING SIMILAR SETUP AS THU NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH N-S ACROSS THE REGION AND PHASE WITH OFFSHORE LONGWAVE TROF
CONNECTED TO CUTOFF IN ATLANTIC CANADA. TWO CONDITIONS ARE
DIFFERENT HOWEVER...PWATS ARE A BIT LOWER /1.0-1.25 INCHES AS
OPPOSED TO 1.5/ AND K INDEX VALUES ARE LOWER AS DRIER AIR INTRUDES
THROUGH THE COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN. THEREFORE...SAVE FOR THE
ADVECTION OF LEFTOVER CONVECTION FROM THE W...SUSPECT THAT -SHRA
ARE LIKELY TO BE A BIT WEAKER AND LESS WIDESPREAD THAN THU NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WILL STILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY FOR
W AND NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ONE OTHER ISSUE IS FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS MOVING INTO E PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO NOTE AN AREA OF MOISTURE
BACKING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO CONTINUED
ELY COMPONENT OF THE FLOW. DO NOTE IN BUFKIT PROFILES THAT THERE
IS A LAYER OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE SFC WHICH MAY NEGATE FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IF STRATUS BACKS IN...LIMITING RADIATIVE
PROCESSES. THEREFORE...WILL MAINLY MENTION LOW CLOUDS...BUT MAY
NEED TO MONITOR FOR DRIZZLE WITH DRIER MOVING IN OVER MOISTURE
POOLING IN THE LOW-MID LVLS. SHOULD SOME AREAS RADIATE...FOG
REMAINS A RISK.

SAT...
ONE LAST PARTING SHOT FOR SHOWERS SAT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY FORCES
SOME DIGGING AND SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE OFFSHORE LONGWAVE
TROF. LEFTOVER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT ARE
LIKELY TO LEAD TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER DURING THE EARLY
HALF OF THE DAY...ALONG WITH SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM PORTIONS OF
THE MERRIMACK VALLEY E AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...IMPROVEMENT BY THE
AFTERNOON LOOKS POSSIBLE THANKS TO GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS FROM
THE S SHIFT IN THE TROF. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC INVERTED RIDGING TO
GRADUALLY REGAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD EVENING. IN
FACT...DESPITE THE CLOUDY START TO THE DAY...ITS POSSIBLE MANY
LOCATIONS STILL GET TO SEE THE SUNSET /EVEN IN THE E WHICH WILL
LIKELY TAKE THE LONGEST TO BREAK OUT/. HIGHS REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL THANKS TO THE EARLY CLOUD COVER LIMITING DIURNAL
INFLUENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT

21/00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. THEN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...
MAKING FOR A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ONWARD.

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN USA. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH...WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN
LINGERING THIS TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. STILL AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THINKING 21/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...KEPT A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A
MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THIS IS WHERE MODELS START TO DIVERGE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
FRONT...BUT NEITHER IS AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE CANADIAN. WILL TAKE A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH THE TIMING FOR NOW.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY
SURPRISED IF THE ULTIMATE TIMING TURNS OUT TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAY...
ALTHOUGH LOW VFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY AREAS W OF THE
WORCESTER HILLS. SHOWERS LINGER IN THIS REGION AS WELL. BY
TONIGHT...SHOWERS DISSIPATE BUT THERE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG
IN THE W AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CIGS IN THE E.
THEREFORE...COMPLEX OVERNIGHT SCENARIO...WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

SAT...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT MAYBE AREAS E OF
THE WST-ORH-AFN...WHERE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO THE
DAY IN LOW CIGS. BY AFTERNOON...LIKELY TO SEE VFR ALL LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR TODAY EXCEPT FOR
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT...EASTERLY
FLOW COULD YIELD A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE. SHOULD THESE BE ESTABLISHED...ITS POSSIBLE THEY LINGER
INTO THE MORNING HOURS SAT.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/VFR MAY BOUNCE BACK AND
FORTH THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS. BY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR AND MAY STAY THAT WAY THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

E TO NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES TO THE NE SLOWLY
REGAINS CONTROL. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND NIGHT TONIGHT...PERIODS
OF WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH A SLOWLY
BUILDING SWELL. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 4 FT EVEN ON THE SE AND S
WATERS. THEREFORE...NO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES. SOME FOG AND SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS AT TIMES AS WELL...MAINLY THIS
MORNING...AND ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS COULD APPROACH 5
FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THOUGH. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KGYX 221019
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
619 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6 AM UPDATE: SHWRS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF NH SO WILL
CONTINUE THE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THAT AREA. THE QPF FCST FOR
SRN NH CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD. WDLY SCT SHWRS ELSEWHERE SO POPS
LOOK OK. INPUT LATEST OBS DATA WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPS OTRW NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

PREV DISC:
A SHARP UPPER TROF AXIS WILL BE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE LOW LEVEL AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH.
THE UPPER TROF WILL CAUSE SCT MAINLY AFTN DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP BUT OVER SRN AREAS OF NH A MORE PREVALENT AREA OF SHWRS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING WITH SOME LOCALLY HVY AMTS. BY LATE
MORNING THE AXIS OVER SRN AREAS OF NH WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTH ALLOWING
THE PCPN TO BECOME MORE SCT IN NATURE. STILL EXPECTING AVG
RAINFALL AMTS OF ARND 1 INCH OVR MUCH OF SRN NH WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS OF 2-3 INCHES PSBL. IN SOUTHERN MAINE AND NRN NH ONLY
VERY LIGHT AMTS OF QPF EXPECTED...GENERALLY ON AN AVERAGE ONLY
AROUND .10 OR LESS. WENT WITH VERY HIGH POPS INTO THE MORNING OVER
SRN NH AND GENERALLY A CHC POP ELSEWHERE. USED A BLEND OF THE
MODELS FOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH ALLOWING A LARGE CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRES TO BUILD SOUTH WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SUN SHOULD RETURN ON SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL
REMAIN COOL. ONCE AGAIN A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR MIN/MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST. SHOULD SEE A
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AND
RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ON TUESDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS
BOUNDARY SAGS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNERSTORMS COMING TO AN END
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHWRS AND ANY
OCEAN STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. BY LATE MORNING MOSTLY VFR CONDS
BUT WDLY SCT AFTN/EVNG SHWRS/TSTMS WILL LWR CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR.
CONDS BECOME VFR TNGT AND CONTINUE INTO SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 221019
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
619 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6 AM UPDATE: SHWRS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF NH SO WILL
CONTINUE THE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THAT AREA. THE QPF FCST FOR
SRN NH CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD. WDLY SCT SHWRS ELSEWHERE SO POPS
LOOK OK. INPUT LATEST OBS DATA WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPS OTRW NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

PREV DISC:
A SHARP UPPER TROF AXIS WILL BE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE LOW LEVEL AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH.
THE UPPER TROF WILL CAUSE SCT MAINLY AFTN DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP BUT OVER SRN AREAS OF NH A MORE PREVALENT AREA OF SHWRS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING WITH SOME LOCALLY HVY AMTS. BY LATE
MORNING THE AXIS OVER SRN AREAS OF NH WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTH ALLOWING
THE PCPN TO BECOME MORE SCT IN NATURE. STILL EXPECTING AVG
RAINFALL AMTS OF ARND 1 INCH OVR MUCH OF SRN NH WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS OF 2-3 INCHES PSBL. IN SOUTHERN MAINE AND NRN NH ONLY
VERY LIGHT AMTS OF QPF EXPECTED...GENERALLY ON AN AVERAGE ONLY
AROUND .10 OR LESS. WENT WITH VERY HIGH POPS INTO THE MORNING OVER
SRN NH AND GENERALLY A CHC POP ELSEWHERE. USED A BLEND OF THE
MODELS FOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH ALLOWING A LARGE CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRES TO BUILD SOUTH WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SUN SHOULD RETURN ON SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL
REMAIN COOL. ONCE AGAIN A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR MIN/MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST. SHOULD SEE A
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AND
RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ON TUESDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS
BOUNDARY SAGS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNERSTORMS COMING TO AN END
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHWRS AND ANY
OCEAN STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. BY LATE MORNING MOSTLY VFR CONDS
BUT WDLY SCT AFTN/EVNG SHWRS/TSTMS WILL LWR CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR.
CONDS BECOME VFR TNGT AND CONTINUE INTO SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 221019
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
619 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6 AM UPDATE: SHWRS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF NH SO WILL
CONTINUE THE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THAT AREA. THE QPF FCST FOR
SRN NH CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD. WDLY SCT SHWRS ELSEWHERE SO POPS
LOOK OK. INPUT LATEST OBS DATA WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPS OTRW NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

PREV DISC:
A SHARP UPPER TROF AXIS WILL BE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE LOW LEVEL AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH.
THE UPPER TROF WILL CAUSE SCT MAINLY AFTN DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP BUT OVER SRN AREAS OF NH A MORE PREVALENT AREA OF SHWRS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING WITH SOME LOCALLY HVY AMTS. BY LATE
MORNING THE AXIS OVER SRN AREAS OF NH WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTH ALLOWING
THE PCPN TO BECOME MORE SCT IN NATURE. STILL EXPECTING AVG
RAINFALL AMTS OF ARND 1 INCH OVR MUCH OF SRN NH WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS OF 2-3 INCHES PSBL. IN SOUTHERN MAINE AND NRN NH ONLY
VERY LIGHT AMTS OF QPF EXPECTED...GENERALLY ON AN AVERAGE ONLY
AROUND .10 OR LESS. WENT WITH VERY HIGH POPS INTO THE MORNING OVER
SRN NH AND GENERALLY A CHC POP ELSEWHERE. USED A BLEND OF THE
MODELS FOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH ALLOWING A LARGE CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRES TO BUILD SOUTH WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SUN SHOULD RETURN ON SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL
REMAIN COOL. ONCE AGAIN A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR MIN/MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST. SHOULD SEE A
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AND
RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ON TUESDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS
BOUNDARY SAGS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNERSTORMS COMING TO AN END
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHWRS AND ANY
OCEAN STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. BY LATE MORNING MOSTLY VFR CONDS
BUT WDLY SCT AFTN/EVNG SHWRS/TSTMS WILL LWR CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR.
CONDS BECOME VFR TNGT AND CONTINUE INTO SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 221019
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
619 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6 AM UPDATE: SHWRS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF NH SO WILL
CONTINUE THE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THAT AREA. THE QPF FCST FOR
SRN NH CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD. WDLY SCT SHWRS ELSEWHERE SO POPS
LOOK OK. INPUT LATEST OBS DATA WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPS OTRW NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

PREV DISC:
A SHARP UPPER TROF AXIS WILL BE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE LOW LEVEL AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH.
THE UPPER TROF WILL CAUSE SCT MAINLY AFTN DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP BUT OVER SRN AREAS OF NH A MORE PREVALENT AREA OF SHWRS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING WITH SOME LOCALLY HVY AMTS. BY LATE
MORNING THE AXIS OVER SRN AREAS OF NH WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTH ALLOWING
THE PCPN TO BECOME MORE SCT IN NATURE. STILL EXPECTING AVG
RAINFALL AMTS OF ARND 1 INCH OVR MUCH OF SRN NH WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS OF 2-3 INCHES PSBL. IN SOUTHERN MAINE AND NRN NH ONLY
VERY LIGHT AMTS OF QPF EXPECTED...GENERALLY ON AN AVERAGE ONLY
AROUND .10 OR LESS. WENT WITH VERY HIGH POPS INTO THE MORNING OVER
SRN NH AND GENERALLY A CHC POP ELSEWHERE. USED A BLEND OF THE
MODELS FOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH ALLOWING A LARGE CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRES TO BUILD SOUTH WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SUN SHOULD RETURN ON SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL
REMAIN COOL. ONCE AGAIN A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR MIN/MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST. SHOULD SEE A
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AND
RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ON TUESDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS
BOUNDARY SAGS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNERSTORMS COMING TO AN END
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHWRS AND ANY
OCEAN STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. BY LATE MORNING MOSTLY VFR CONDS
BUT WDLY SCT AFTN/EVNG SHWRS/TSTMS WILL LWR CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR.
CONDS BECOME VFR TNGT AND CONTINUE INTO SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE




000
FXUS61 KBOX 220810
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
410 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THIS WEEKEND. A
WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN-SITU THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF VORT-MAX/S MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. PWATS ARE MARGINAL /AROUND TO JUST BELOW 1.5
INCHES/ WITH K-VALES IN THE W ABOUT 30-32. THEREFORE...SUSPECT
THIS THREAT FOR -SHRA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. ESPECIALLY
WERE WEAK CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES ARE ALLOWED TO FORM IN THE
RELATIVELY WEAK NEAR SFC FLOW. WILL CARRY POPS THROUGH MID DAY
MAINLY W OF THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO SRN NH...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR.

OTHERWISE TODAY...THIS FIRST VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO JOIN FORCES
WITH CUTOFF LOW PRES STALLED IN BLOCKING FLOW ACROSS ATLANTIC
CANADA...FORMING A HANGING TROF WHOSE BASE WILL REST TO THE S OF
REGION. NOTE THAT AS THIS TROF DEVELOPS AND A SERIES OF WEAKER
WAVES ROTATE THROUGH...HEIGHTS CONTINUE DECLINE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE DOES ACTUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY...CLOSER TO BETWEEN 1.0-1.25 INCHES AND OVERALL INSTABILITY
/INCLUDING K-VALUES/ DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. GIVEN
THIS...AND THE FACT THAT ANOTHER AXIS OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY
REMAINS TO THE W IN NY THANKS TO WHAT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE CLEAR
SKIES...AND CONTINUED MARINE INFLUENCE THANKS TO E COMPONENT TO
THE FLOW SUSPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO ONCE AGAIN FIRE MAINLY W
OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAY ACTUALLY USURP
SOME OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO WILL ACTUALLY HIGHLIGHT
DECLINING POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT IN THE DUE TO
REMNANT CONVECTION ADVECTING E.

AS MENTIONED...EXPECT A LOT MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TODAY
THANKS TO MARINE INFLUENCE AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT.
THEREFORE...HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S IN SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
AM NOTING SIMILAR SETUP AS THU NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH N-S ACROSS THE REGION AND PHASE WITH OFFSHORE LONGWAVE TROF
CONNECTED TO CUTOFF IN ATLANTIC CANADA. TWO CONDITIONS ARE
DIFFERENT HOWEVER...PWATS ARE A BIT LOWER /1.0-1.25 INCHES AS
OPPOSED TO 1.5/ AND K INDEX VALUES ARE LOWER AS DRIER AIR INTRUDES
THROUGH THE COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN. THEREFORE...SAVE FOR THE
ADVECTION OF LEFTOVER CONVECTION FROM THE W...SUSPECT THAT -SHRA
ARE LIKELY TO BE A BIT WEAKER AND LESS WIDESPREAD THAN THU NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WILL STILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY FOR
W AND NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ONE OTHER ISSUE IS FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS MOVING INTO E PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO NOTE AN AREA OF MOISTURE
BACKING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO CONTINUED
ELY COMPONENT OF THE FLOW. DO NOTE IN BUFKIT PROFILES THAT THERE
IS A LAYER OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE SFC WHICH MAY NEGATE FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IF STRATUS BACKS IN...LIMITING RADIATIVE
PROCESSES. THEREFORE...WILL MAINLY MENTION LOW CLOUDS...BUT MAY
NEED TO MONITOR FOR DRIZZLE WITH DRIER MOVING IN OVER MOISTURE
POOLING IN THE LOW-MID LVLS. SHOULD SOME AREAS RADIATE...FOG
REMAINS A RISK.

SAT...
ONE LAST PARTING SHOT FOR SHOWERS SAT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY FORCES
SOME DIGGING AND SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE OFFSHORE LONGWAVE
TROF. LEFTOVER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT ARE
LIKELY TO LEAD TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER DURING THE EARLY
HALF OF THE DAY...ALONG WITH SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM PORTIONS OF
THE MERRIMACK VALLEY E AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...IMPROVEMENT BY THE
AFTERNOON LOOKS POSSIBLE THANKS TO GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS FROM
THE S SHIFT IN THE TROF. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC INVERTED RIDGING TO
GRADUALLY REGAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD EVENING. IN
FACT...DESPITE THE CLOUDY START TO THE DAY...ITS POSSIBLE MANY
LOCATIONS STILL GET TO SEE THE SUNSET /EVEN IN THE E WHICH WILL
LIKELY TAKE THE LONGEST TO BREAK OUT/. HIGHS REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL THANKS TO THE EARLY CLOUD COVER LIMITING DIURNAL
INFLUENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT

21/00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. THEN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...
MAKING FOR A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ONWARD.

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN USA. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH...WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN
LINGERING THIS TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. STILL AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THINKING 21/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...KEPT A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A
MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THIS IS WHERE MODELS START TO DIVERGE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
FRONT...BUT NEITHER IS AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE CANADIAN. WILL TAKE A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH THE TIMING FOR NOW.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY
SURPRISED IF THE ULTIMATE TIMING TURNS OUT TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SRN NH AND POINTS W OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. THESE ARE THE
MOST LIKELY SPOTS TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT ACK...WHERE IFR CIGS LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING.

TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH
LOW VFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY AREAS W OF THE WORCESTER
HILLS. SHOWERS LINGER IN THIS REGION AS WELL. BY TONIGHT...SHOWERS
DISSIPATE BUT THERE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE W AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CIGS IN THE E. THEREFORE...COMPLEX OVERNIGHT
SCENARIO...WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

SAT...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT MAYBE AREAS E OF
THE WST-ORH-AFN...WHERE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO THE
DAY IN LOW CIGS. BY AFTERNOON...LIKELY TO SEE VFR ALL LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR TODAY EXCEPT FOR
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT...EASTERLY FLOW
COULD YIELD A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
SHOULD THESE BE ESTABLISHED...ITS POSSIBLE THEY LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS SAT.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/VFR MAY BOUNCE BACK AND
FORTH THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS. BY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR AND MAY STAY THAT WAY THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

E TO NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES TO THE NE SLOWLY
REGAINS CONTROL. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND NIGHT TONIGHT...PERIODS
OF WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH A SLOWLY
BUILDING SWELL. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 4 FT EVEN ON THE SE AND S
WATERS. THEREFORE...NO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES. SOME FOG AND SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS AT TIMES AS WELL...MAINLY THIS
MORNING...AND ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS COULD APPROACH 5
FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THOUGH. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 220810
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
410 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THIS WEEKEND. A
WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN-SITU THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF VORT-MAX/S MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. PWATS ARE MARGINAL /AROUND TO JUST BELOW 1.5
INCHES/ WITH K-VALES IN THE W ABOUT 30-32. THEREFORE...SUSPECT
THIS THREAT FOR -SHRA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. ESPECIALLY
WERE WEAK CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES ARE ALLOWED TO FORM IN THE
RELATIVELY WEAK NEAR SFC FLOW. WILL CARRY POPS THROUGH MID DAY
MAINLY W OF THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO SRN NH...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR.

OTHERWISE TODAY...THIS FIRST VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO JOIN FORCES
WITH CUTOFF LOW PRES STALLED IN BLOCKING FLOW ACROSS ATLANTIC
CANADA...FORMING A HANGING TROF WHOSE BASE WILL REST TO THE S OF
REGION. NOTE THAT AS THIS TROF DEVELOPS AND A SERIES OF WEAKER
WAVES ROTATE THROUGH...HEIGHTS CONTINUE DECLINE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE DOES ACTUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY...CLOSER TO BETWEEN 1.0-1.25 INCHES AND OVERALL INSTABILITY
/INCLUDING K-VALUES/ DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. GIVEN
THIS...AND THE FACT THAT ANOTHER AXIS OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY
REMAINS TO THE W IN NY THANKS TO WHAT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE CLEAR
SKIES...AND CONTINUED MARINE INFLUENCE THANKS TO E COMPONENT TO
THE FLOW SUSPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO ONCE AGAIN FIRE MAINLY W
OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAY ACTUALLY USURP
SOME OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO WILL ACTUALLY HIGHLIGHT
DECLINING POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT IN THE DUE TO
REMNANT CONVECTION ADVECTING E.

AS MENTIONED...EXPECT A LOT MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TODAY
THANKS TO MARINE INFLUENCE AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT.
THEREFORE...HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S IN SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
AM NOTING SIMILAR SETUP AS THU NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH N-S ACROSS THE REGION AND PHASE WITH OFFSHORE LONGWAVE TROF
CONNECTED TO CUTOFF IN ATLANTIC CANADA. TWO CONDITIONS ARE
DIFFERENT HOWEVER...PWATS ARE A BIT LOWER /1.0-1.25 INCHES AS
OPPOSED TO 1.5/ AND K INDEX VALUES ARE LOWER AS DRIER AIR INTRUDES
THROUGH THE COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN. THEREFORE...SAVE FOR THE
ADVECTION OF LEFTOVER CONVECTION FROM THE W...SUSPECT THAT -SHRA
ARE LIKELY TO BE A BIT WEAKER AND LESS WIDESPREAD THAN THU NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WILL STILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY FOR
W AND NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ONE OTHER ISSUE IS FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS MOVING INTO E PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO NOTE AN AREA OF MOISTURE
BACKING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO CONTINUED
ELY COMPONENT OF THE FLOW. DO NOTE IN BUFKIT PROFILES THAT THERE
IS A LAYER OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE SFC WHICH MAY NEGATE FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IF STRATUS BACKS IN...LIMITING RADIATIVE
PROCESSES. THEREFORE...WILL MAINLY MENTION LOW CLOUDS...BUT MAY
NEED TO MONITOR FOR DRIZZLE WITH DRIER MOVING IN OVER MOISTURE
POOLING IN THE LOW-MID LVLS. SHOULD SOME AREAS RADIATE...FOG
REMAINS A RISK.

SAT...
ONE LAST PARTING SHOT FOR SHOWERS SAT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY FORCES
SOME DIGGING AND SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE OFFSHORE LONGWAVE
TROF. LEFTOVER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT ARE
LIKELY TO LEAD TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER DURING THE EARLY
HALF OF THE DAY...ALONG WITH SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM PORTIONS OF
THE MERRIMACK VALLEY E AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...IMPROVEMENT BY THE
AFTERNOON LOOKS POSSIBLE THANKS TO GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS FROM
THE S SHIFT IN THE TROF. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC INVERTED RIDGING TO
GRADUALLY REGAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD EVENING. IN
FACT...DESPITE THE CLOUDY START TO THE DAY...ITS POSSIBLE MANY
LOCATIONS STILL GET TO SEE THE SUNSET /EVEN IN THE E WHICH WILL
LIKELY TAKE THE LONGEST TO BREAK OUT/. HIGHS REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL THANKS TO THE EARLY CLOUD COVER LIMITING DIURNAL
INFLUENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT

21/00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. THEN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...
MAKING FOR A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ONWARD.

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN USA. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH...WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN
LINGERING THIS TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. STILL AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THINKING 21/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...KEPT A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A
MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THIS IS WHERE MODELS START TO DIVERGE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
FRONT...BUT NEITHER IS AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE CANADIAN. WILL TAKE A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH THE TIMING FOR NOW.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY
SURPRISED IF THE ULTIMATE TIMING TURNS OUT TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SRN NH AND POINTS W OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. THESE ARE THE
MOST LIKELY SPOTS TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT ACK...WHERE IFR CIGS LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING.

TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH
LOW VFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY AREAS W OF THE WORCESTER
HILLS. SHOWERS LINGER IN THIS REGION AS WELL. BY TONIGHT...SHOWERS
DISSIPATE BUT THERE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE W AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CIGS IN THE E. THEREFORE...COMPLEX OVERNIGHT
SCENARIO...WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

SAT...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT MAYBE AREAS E OF
THE WST-ORH-AFN...WHERE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO THE
DAY IN LOW CIGS. BY AFTERNOON...LIKELY TO SEE VFR ALL LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR TODAY EXCEPT FOR
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT...EASTERLY FLOW
COULD YIELD A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
SHOULD THESE BE ESTABLISHED...ITS POSSIBLE THEY LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS SAT.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/VFR MAY BOUNCE BACK AND
FORTH THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS. BY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR AND MAY STAY THAT WAY THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

E TO NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES TO THE NE SLOWLY
REGAINS CONTROL. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND NIGHT TONIGHT...PERIODS
OF WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH A SLOWLY
BUILDING SWELL. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 4 FT EVEN ON THE SE AND S
WATERS. THEREFORE...NO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES. SOME FOG AND SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS AT TIMES AS WELL...MAINLY THIS
MORNING...AND ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS COULD APPROACH 5
FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THOUGH. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 220810
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
410 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THIS WEEKEND. A
WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN-SITU THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF VORT-MAX/S MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. PWATS ARE MARGINAL /AROUND TO JUST BELOW 1.5
INCHES/ WITH K-VALES IN THE W ABOUT 30-32. THEREFORE...SUSPECT
THIS THREAT FOR -SHRA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. ESPECIALLY
WERE WEAK CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES ARE ALLOWED TO FORM IN THE
RELATIVELY WEAK NEAR SFC FLOW. WILL CARRY POPS THROUGH MID DAY
MAINLY W OF THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO SRN NH...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR.

OTHERWISE TODAY...THIS FIRST VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO JOIN FORCES
WITH CUTOFF LOW PRES STALLED IN BLOCKING FLOW ACROSS ATLANTIC
CANADA...FORMING A HANGING TROF WHOSE BASE WILL REST TO THE S OF
REGION. NOTE THAT AS THIS TROF DEVELOPS AND A SERIES OF WEAKER
WAVES ROTATE THROUGH...HEIGHTS CONTINUE DECLINE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE DOES ACTUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY...CLOSER TO BETWEEN 1.0-1.25 INCHES AND OVERALL INSTABILITY
/INCLUDING K-VALUES/ DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. GIVEN
THIS...AND THE FACT THAT ANOTHER AXIS OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY
REMAINS TO THE W IN NY THANKS TO WHAT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE CLEAR
SKIES...AND CONTINUED MARINE INFLUENCE THANKS TO E COMPONENT TO
THE FLOW SUSPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO ONCE AGAIN FIRE MAINLY W
OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAY ACTUALLY USURP
SOME OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO WILL ACTUALLY HIGHLIGHT
DECLINING POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT IN THE DUE TO
REMNANT CONVECTION ADVECTING E.

AS MENTIONED...EXPECT A LOT MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TODAY
THANKS TO MARINE INFLUENCE AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT.
THEREFORE...HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S IN SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
AM NOTING SIMILAR SETUP AS THU NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH N-S ACROSS THE REGION AND PHASE WITH OFFSHORE LONGWAVE TROF
CONNECTED TO CUTOFF IN ATLANTIC CANADA. TWO CONDITIONS ARE
DIFFERENT HOWEVER...PWATS ARE A BIT LOWER /1.0-1.25 INCHES AS
OPPOSED TO 1.5/ AND K INDEX VALUES ARE LOWER AS DRIER AIR INTRUDES
THROUGH THE COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN. THEREFORE...SAVE FOR THE
ADVECTION OF LEFTOVER CONVECTION FROM THE W...SUSPECT THAT -SHRA
ARE LIKELY TO BE A BIT WEAKER AND LESS WIDESPREAD THAN THU NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WILL STILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY FOR
W AND NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ONE OTHER ISSUE IS FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS MOVING INTO E PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO NOTE AN AREA OF MOISTURE
BACKING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO CONTINUED
ELY COMPONENT OF THE FLOW. DO NOTE IN BUFKIT PROFILES THAT THERE
IS A LAYER OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE SFC WHICH MAY NEGATE FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IF STRATUS BACKS IN...LIMITING RADIATIVE
PROCESSES. THEREFORE...WILL MAINLY MENTION LOW CLOUDS...BUT MAY
NEED TO MONITOR FOR DRIZZLE WITH DRIER MOVING IN OVER MOISTURE
POOLING IN THE LOW-MID LVLS. SHOULD SOME AREAS RADIATE...FOG
REMAINS A RISK.

SAT...
ONE LAST PARTING SHOT FOR SHOWERS SAT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY FORCES
SOME DIGGING AND SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE OFFSHORE LONGWAVE
TROF. LEFTOVER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT ARE
LIKELY TO LEAD TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER DURING THE EARLY
HALF OF THE DAY...ALONG WITH SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM PORTIONS OF
THE MERRIMACK VALLEY E AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...IMPROVEMENT BY THE
AFTERNOON LOOKS POSSIBLE THANKS TO GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS FROM
THE S SHIFT IN THE TROF. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC INVERTED RIDGING TO
GRADUALLY REGAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD EVENING. IN
FACT...DESPITE THE CLOUDY START TO THE DAY...ITS POSSIBLE MANY
LOCATIONS STILL GET TO SEE THE SUNSET /EVEN IN THE E WHICH WILL
LIKELY TAKE THE LONGEST TO BREAK OUT/. HIGHS REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL THANKS TO THE EARLY CLOUD COVER LIMITING DIURNAL
INFLUENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT

21/00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. THEN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...
MAKING FOR A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ONWARD.

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN USA. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH...WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN
LINGERING THIS TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. STILL AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THINKING 21/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...KEPT A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A
MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THIS IS WHERE MODELS START TO DIVERGE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
FRONT...BUT NEITHER IS AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE CANADIAN. WILL TAKE A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH THE TIMING FOR NOW.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY
SURPRISED IF THE ULTIMATE TIMING TURNS OUT TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SRN NH AND POINTS W OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. THESE ARE THE
MOST LIKELY SPOTS TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT ACK...WHERE IFR CIGS LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING.

TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH
LOW VFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY AREAS W OF THE WORCESTER
HILLS. SHOWERS LINGER IN THIS REGION AS WELL. BY TONIGHT...SHOWERS
DISSIPATE BUT THERE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE W AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CIGS IN THE E. THEREFORE...COMPLEX OVERNIGHT
SCENARIO...WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

SAT...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT MAYBE AREAS E OF
THE WST-ORH-AFN...WHERE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO THE
DAY IN LOW CIGS. BY AFTERNOON...LIKELY TO SEE VFR ALL LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR TODAY EXCEPT FOR
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT...EASTERLY FLOW
COULD YIELD A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
SHOULD THESE BE ESTABLISHED...ITS POSSIBLE THEY LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS SAT.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/VFR MAY BOUNCE BACK AND
FORTH THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS. BY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR AND MAY STAY THAT WAY THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

E TO NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES TO THE NE SLOWLY
REGAINS CONTROL. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND NIGHT TONIGHT...PERIODS
OF WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH A SLOWLY
BUILDING SWELL. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 4 FT EVEN ON THE SE AND S
WATERS. THEREFORE...NO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES. SOME FOG AND SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS AT TIMES AS WELL...MAINLY THIS
MORNING...AND ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS COULD APPROACH 5
FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THOUGH. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 220810
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
410 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THIS WEEKEND. A
WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN-SITU THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF VORT-MAX/S MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. PWATS ARE MARGINAL /AROUND TO JUST BELOW 1.5
INCHES/ WITH K-VALES IN THE W ABOUT 30-32. THEREFORE...SUSPECT
THIS THREAT FOR -SHRA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. ESPECIALLY
WERE WEAK CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES ARE ALLOWED TO FORM IN THE
RELATIVELY WEAK NEAR SFC FLOW. WILL CARRY POPS THROUGH MID DAY
MAINLY W OF THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO SRN NH...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR.

OTHERWISE TODAY...THIS FIRST VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO JOIN FORCES
WITH CUTOFF LOW PRES STALLED IN BLOCKING FLOW ACROSS ATLANTIC
CANADA...FORMING A HANGING TROF WHOSE BASE WILL REST TO THE S OF
REGION. NOTE THAT AS THIS TROF DEVELOPS AND A SERIES OF WEAKER
WAVES ROTATE THROUGH...HEIGHTS CONTINUE DECLINE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE DOES ACTUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY...CLOSER TO BETWEEN 1.0-1.25 INCHES AND OVERALL INSTABILITY
/INCLUDING K-VALUES/ DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. GIVEN
THIS...AND THE FACT THAT ANOTHER AXIS OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY
REMAINS TO THE W IN NY THANKS TO WHAT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE CLEAR
SKIES...AND CONTINUED MARINE INFLUENCE THANKS TO E COMPONENT TO
THE FLOW SUSPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO ONCE AGAIN FIRE MAINLY W
OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAY ACTUALLY USURP
SOME OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO WILL ACTUALLY HIGHLIGHT
DECLINING POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT IN THE DUE TO
REMNANT CONVECTION ADVECTING E.

AS MENTIONED...EXPECT A LOT MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TODAY
THANKS TO MARINE INFLUENCE AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT.
THEREFORE...HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S IN SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
AM NOTING SIMILAR SETUP AS THU NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH N-S ACROSS THE REGION AND PHASE WITH OFFSHORE LONGWAVE TROF
CONNECTED TO CUTOFF IN ATLANTIC CANADA. TWO CONDITIONS ARE
DIFFERENT HOWEVER...PWATS ARE A BIT LOWER /1.0-1.25 INCHES AS
OPPOSED TO 1.5/ AND K INDEX VALUES ARE LOWER AS DRIER AIR INTRUDES
THROUGH THE COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN. THEREFORE...SAVE FOR THE
ADVECTION OF LEFTOVER CONVECTION FROM THE W...SUSPECT THAT -SHRA
ARE LIKELY TO BE A BIT WEAKER AND LESS WIDESPREAD THAN THU NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WILL STILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY FOR
W AND NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ONE OTHER ISSUE IS FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS MOVING INTO E PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO NOTE AN AREA OF MOISTURE
BACKING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO CONTINUED
ELY COMPONENT OF THE FLOW. DO NOTE IN BUFKIT PROFILES THAT THERE
IS A LAYER OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE SFC WHICH MAY NEGATE FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IF STRATUS BACKS IN...LIMITING RADIATIVE
PROCESSES. THEREFORE...WILL MAINLY MENTION LOW CLOUDS...BUT MAY
NEED TO MONITOR FOR DRIZZLE WITH DRIER MOVING IN OVER MOISTURE
POOLING IN THE LOW-MID LVLS. SHOULD SOME AREAS RADIATE...FOG
REMAINS A RISK.

SAT...
ONE LAST PARTING SHOT FOR SHOWERS SAT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY FORCES
SOME DIGGING AND SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE OFFSHORE LONGWAVE
TROF. LEFTOVER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT ARE
LIKELY TO LEAD TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER DURING THE EARLY
HALF OF THE DAY...ALONG WITH SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM PORTIONS OF
THE MERRIMACK VALLEY E AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...IMPROVEMENT BY THE
AFTERNOON LOOKS POSSIBLE THANKS TO GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS FROM
THE S SHIFT IN THE TROF. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC INVERTED RIDGING TO
GRADUALLY REGAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD EVENING. IN
FACT...DESPITE THE CLOUDY START TO THE DAY...ITS POSSIBLE MANY
LOCATIONS STILL GET TO SEE THE SUNSET /EVEN IN THE E WHICH WILL
LIKELY TAKE THE LONGEST TO BREAK OUT/. HIGHS REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL THANKS TO THE EARLY CLOUD COVER LIMITING DIURNAL
INFLUENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT

21/00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. THEN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...
MAKING FOR A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ONWARD.

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN USA. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH...WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN
LINGERING THIS TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. STILL AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THINKING 21/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...KEPT A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A
MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THIS IS WHERE MODELS START TO DIVERGE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
FRONT...BUT NEITHER IS AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE CANADIAN. WILL TAKE A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH THE TIMING FOR NOW.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY
SURPRISED IF THE ULTIMATE TIMING TURNS OUT TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SRN NH AND POINTS W OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. THESE ARE THE
MOST LIKELY SPOTS TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT ACK...WHERE IFR CIGS LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING.

TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH
LOW VFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY AREAS W OF THE WORCESTER
HILLS. SHOWERS LINGER IN THIS REGION AS WELL. BY TONIGHT...SHOWERS
DISSIPATE BUT THERE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE W AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CIGS IN THE E. THEREFORE...COMPLEX OVERNIGHT
SCENARIO...WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

SAT...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT MAYBE AREAS E OF
THE WST-ORH-AFN...WHERE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO THE
DAY IN LOW CIGS. BY AFTERNOON...LIKELY TO SEE VFR ALL LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR TODAY EXCEPT FOR
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT...EASTERLY FLOW
COULD YIELD A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
SHOULD THESE BE ESTABLISHED...ITS POSSIBLE THEY LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS SAT.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/VFR MAY BOUNCE BACK AND
FORTH THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS. BY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR AND MAY STAY THAT WAY THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

E TO NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES TO THE NE SLOWLY
REGAINS CONTROL. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND NIGHT TONIGHT...PERIODS
OF WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH A SLOWLY
BUILDING SWELL. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 4 FT EVEN ON THE SE AND S
WATERS. THEREFORE...NO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES. SOME FOG AND SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS AT TIMES AS WELL...MAINLY THIS
MORNING...AND ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS COULD APPROACH 5
FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THOUGH. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KGYX 220709
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
309 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A SHARP UPPER TROF AXIS WILL BE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE LOW LEVEL AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH.
THE UPPER TROF WILL CAUSE SCT MAINLY AFTN DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP BUT OVER SRN AREAS OF NH A MORE PREVALENT AREA OF SHWRS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING WITH SOME LOCALLY HVY AMTS. BY LATE
MORNING THE AXIS OVER SRN AREAS OF NH WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTH ALLOWING
THE PCPN TO BECOME MORE SCT IN NATURE. STILL EXPECTING AVG
RAINFALL AMTS OF ARND 1 INCH OVR MUCH OF SRN NH WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS OF 2-3 INCHES PSBL. IN SOUTHERN MAINE AND NRN NH ONLY
VERY LIGHT AMTS OF QPF EXPECTED...GENERALLY ON AN AVERAGE ONLY
AROUND .10 OR LESS. WENT WITH VERY HIGH POPS INTO THE MORNING OVER
SRN NH AND GENERALLY A CHC POP ELSEWHERE. USED A BLEND OF THE
MODELS FOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH ALLOWING A LARGE CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRES TO BUILD SOUTH WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SUN SHOULD RETURN ON SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL
REMAIN COOL. ONCE AGAIN A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR MIN/MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST. SHOULD SEE A
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AND
RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ON TUESDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS
BOUNDARY SAGS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNERSTORMS COMING TO AN END
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHWRS AND ANY
OCEAN STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. BY LATE MORNING MOSTLY VFR CONDS
BUT WDLY SCT AFTN/EVNG SHWRS/TSTMS WILL LWR CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR.
CONDS BECOME VFR TNGT AND CONTINUE INTO SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 220709
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
309 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A SHARP UPPER TROF AXIS WILL BE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE LOW LEVEL AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH.
THE UPPER TROF WILL CAUSE SCT MAINLY AFTN DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP BUT OVER SRN AREAS OF NH A MORE PREVALENT AREA OF SHWRS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING WITH SOME LOCALLY HVY AMTS. BY LATE
MORNING THE AXIS OVER SRN AREAS OF NH WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTH ALLOWING
THE PCPN TO BECOME MORE SCT IN NATURE. STILL EXPECTING AVG
RAINFALL AMTS OF ARND 1 INCH OVR MUCH OF SRN NH WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS OF 2-3 INCHES PSBL. IN SOUTHERN MAINE AND NRN NH ONLY
VERY LIGHT AMTS OF QPF EXPECTED...GENERALLY ON AN AVERAGE ONLY
AROUND .10 OR LESS. WENT WITH VERY HIGH POPS INTO THE MORNING OVER
SRN NH AND GENERALLY A CHC POP ELSEWHERE. USED A BLEND OF THE
MODELS FOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH ALLOWING A LARGE CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRES TO BUILD SOUTH WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SUN SHOULD RETURN ON SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL
REMAIN COOL. ONCE AGAIN A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR MIN/MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST. SHOULD SEE A
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AND
RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ON TUESDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS
BOUNDARY SAGS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNERSTORMS COMING TO AN END
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHWRS AND ANY
OCEAN STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. BY LATE MORNING MOSTLY VFR CONDS
BUT WDLY SCT AFTN/EVNG SHWRS/TSTMS WILL LWR CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR.
CONDS BECOME VFR TNGT AND CONTINUE INTO SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KBOX 220547
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
147 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...DISSOLVING SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE MARITIMES WILL BRING DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY OR
NEXT THURSDAY AS A FRONT MAY APPROACH OUT OF QUEBEC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKENED UPPER LVL CUTOFF VORTMAX NOW SLIDING SE
THROUGH NY INTO PA/NJ THIS EVENING. LATEST RAP ALSO SHOWS THAT
AXIS OF LEFTOVER INSTABILITY RESIDES TO THE W AS WELL. HENCE WHY
MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS TAKING ON A MORE N-S
PROPAGATION THIS EVENING AND WHY ONLY LEFTOVER CONVECTION IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT-MOD -SHRA ARE MAKING IT/S WAY INTO THE WRN ZONES.
FEEL THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THAT THE BULK OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION
IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

ELSEWHERE...FURTHER E...SPOTTY -SHRA CONTINUE TO FORM AHEAD OF THE
VORTMAX ALONG AN AXIS OF 30+ K-INDEX VALUES SUGGESTIVE OF MODERATE
COLUMN MOISTURE IN THE LOW-MID LVLS AND JUST ENOUGH CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE APPROACHING WAVE.
THESE ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FORMING IN-SITU ACROSS THE
REGION...SO AN AXIS OF HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS WILL BE
USED. SOME OF THESE ARE LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER INTO THE
PROVIDENCE-BOSTON CORRIDOR AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...
LOW TRANSITIONS AS AN OPEN WAVE LOW TOWARDS THE SE. ACCOMPANYING
MAIN CRUX OF ENERGY YIELDS ASCENT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE FUELED BY
A SW-PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WRAPPING AHEAD OF THE LOW /1.5
PWAT AIRMASS/ CONVERGING AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR
BUILDING SW BELOW H8. THIS YIELDS NW-SE ORIENTED AREAS OF F-GEN
FORCING WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS THAT WILL LIKELY PARENT WITH MID-
LEVEL FORCING.

A CONSENSUS WEIGHTING OF MODEL GUIDANCE PUTS THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS TOWARDS THE W/SW FORECAST ZONE WHICH WOULD BE EXPECTED BUT
CAN NOT RULE OUT OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. ONLY THE
IMMEDIATE E/SE MAY BE SPARED OF WET WEATHER...BUT AM NOT HOLDING
MY BREATH. LOW CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER WITH THE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IS IN AREAS OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. YET WITH E-ONSHORE FLOW
DRIVING IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR...ALONG WITH THE GREATER CAPACITY
FOR AREAS TO RADIATE EFFICIENTLY THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR E/SE PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE W MAY COMPLICATE THE MATTER.

WILL GO WITH LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-50S TO LOW-60S WITH THE COOL
SPOTS TO THE N/W WHICH BARELY SAW ANY SUN...AND THE E/SE IMMEDIATE
INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...

WITH THE LOW SWUNG SE OF THE REGION...CUTOFF ENERGY WRAPS REARWARD
AND SE INTO THE REGION INVOKING A HANGING TROUGH. RISING HEIGHTS IN
WAKE OF THE TROUGH ALLOW FOR ENHANCED RIDGING OF HIGH PRESSURE SW
AHEAD OF WHICH F-GEN FORCING IS MAXIMIZED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS.
PARENTING WITH MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER CUTOFF ENERGY...THERE IS THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR CONTINUED SHOWERY WEATHER OVER SW PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND.

WILL HOLD WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR W/SW PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BENEATH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS. AM NOT GOING TO GET
SPECIFIC WITH THE FORECAST POPS BUT RATHER BROAD BRUSH AN AREA
WHERE THERE IS HIGHEST CONFIDENCE. CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS E.

COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND RAIN COULD MAKE FOR A VERY CHILL DAY
ESPECIALLY FOR MID- TO LATE-AUGUST. THE DREARY WEATHER COULD YIELD
HIGHS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S FOR THE S/W...WARMER E WHERE THE
GREATER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SUNSHINE YET ONLY INTO THE UPPER-60S
WITH THE BRISK ONSHORE E-FLOW SURGING INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.

FRIDAY NIGHT...

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR BUILDING SW AS
HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO THE HANGING TROUGH SWINGING S/E. LOW-
LEVEL F-GEN FORCING AND MID-LEVEL FORCING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SW
INTO NY/PA AHEAD OF CONTINUED RIDGE ENHANCEMENT.

WHILE CONSENSUS WEIGHTING OF MODEL GUIDANCE YIELDS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR S/W PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE LONG E-FETCH
OFF THE WATERS LIKELY RESULTING IN MOISTURE POOLING WITHIN THE LOW-
LEVELS COULD RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PERHAPS EVEN DRIZZLE AS
THE FLOW UNDERGOES OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE E-SHORELINE.

A TOUGH FORECAST AND A LIKELY COOL AND DREARY NIGHT WITH LOWS
GETTING DOWN AROUND THE MID-50S. WITH DEWPOINTS AT SIMILAR VALUES...
ANTICIPATING A PLETHORA OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WHERE THE E-FLOW IS
LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
* MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS RIDGE TRIES
  TO BUILD EAST
* TIMING OF APPROACHING FRONT BY LATE NEXT WEEK REMAINS UNCERTAIN

BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AS H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES REMAINS PERSISTENT S OF GREENLAND
THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SOME QUESTIONS DO
COME INTO PLAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER FLOW TRIES TO
RECONFIGURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW FLOW TRIES TO FLATTEN OUT LATER THIS
WEEKEND...THEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS TO BUILD IN BRIEFLY
AROUND MONDAY OR TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL MODEL RUN DIFFERENCES MAY BE
RESOLVING...BUT STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE LATE NEXT WEEK.
THIS LENDS TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND TUESDAY.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

EXPECT HIGH PRES RIDGING TO CONTINUE TO NOSE IN FROM THE MARITIMES.
THE ORIENTATION OF THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP COOL ONSHORE WINDS. SEVERAL
OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS...MAINLY THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF...TRY TO WORK
CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP OFF THE OCEAN DURING SAT WITH LONG
FETCH OFF THE GULF OF MAINE. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD SHOWERS THAT MAY
MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY MORNING THEN PUSH W. COULD EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE AROUND SUNRISE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HAVE MENTIONED
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT...THOUGH...BECAUSE OF
UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE REALIZED. ONE CERTAINTY
THOUGH IS THAT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL REMAIN WITH THE ONSHORE
WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

LOOKS LIKE THE MARITIMES RIDGE AXIS TRIES TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS H5
RIDGE PUSHES SE OUT OF ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES AND ACTUALLY
BUILDS INTO QUEBEC...A SET UP THAT HAS BEEN RARE THIS SUMMER. WILL
REMAIN DRY BUT LOOKS LIKE MILDER TEMPS ON THE HORIZON AS WINDS BACK
AROUND TO W AND SW. TEMPS LOOK BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE
AUGUST...THOUGH WILL REMAIN A BIT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST. HUMIDITY
WILL ALSO START TO INCREASE DURING TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...

WHILE THE LAST SEVERAL ECMWF OP RUNS HAVE BEEN MUCH FASTER THAN THE
COUNTERPART GFS...THE 12Z RUN LOOKS MUCH CLOSER WITH ITS SOLUTION IN
KEEPING RIDGING ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  ONE BIG FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SYSTEM THAT WILL TRY TO MAKE
THE TURN AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFFSHORE...BUT THAT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.  WEAK COLD FRONT MAY STILL TRY TO WORK OUT OF QUEBEC LAST
WED OR THU...THEN COULD STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. STILL A
TOUGH CALL. ALSO...DEPENDING UPON AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...MIGHT SEE SOME SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
VICINITY OF THE FRONT. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS RUN
ALONG WITH GFS/EC ENSEMBLES FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SRN NH AND POINTS W OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. THESE ARE THE
MOST LIKELY SPOTS TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT ACK...WHERE IFR CIGS LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING.

TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH
LOW VFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY AREAS W OF THE WORCESTER
HILLS. SHOWERS LINGER IN THIS REGION AS WELL. BY TONIGHT...SHOWERS
DISSIPATE BUT THERE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE W AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CIGS IN THE E. THEREFORE...COMPLEX OVERNIGHT
SCENARIO...WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

SAT...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT MAYBE AREAS E OF
THE WST-ORH-AFN...WHERE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO THE
DAY IN LOW CIGS. BY AFTERNOON...LIKELY TO SEE VFR ALL LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR TODAY EXCEPT FOR
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT...EASTERLY FLOW
COULD YIELD A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
SHOULD THESE BE ESTABLISHED...ITS POSSIBLE THEY LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS SAT.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/VFR MAY BOUNCE BACK AND
FORTH THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS. BY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR AND MAY STAY THAT WAY THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY FOG WITH BRIEF
LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NE-WINDS INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO INTERIOR LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING
SE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SOME MILD STRENGTHENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE N. SUBSEQUENT PRESSURE-GRADIENT MAY YIELD SOME
DECENT FETCH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS TO CAUSE SEAS TO RISE...BUT
WILL HOLD AT 4 FEET. FEEL BRISK WINDS WILL DIMINISH FOG POTENTIAL
YET LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR AREAS TOWARDS THE
SW.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT E SWELLS COULD BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH LONG E FETCH...EVEN WITH WIND SPEEDS
LESS THAN 15 KT. MAY SEE PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES
EACH NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 220547
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
147 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...DISSOLVING SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE MARITIMES WILL BRING DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY OR
NEXT THURSDAY AS A FRONT MAY APPROACH OUT OF QUEBEC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKENED UPPER LVL CUTOFF VORTMAX NOW SLIDING SE
THROUGH NY INTO PA/NJ THIS EVENING. LATEST RAP ALSO SHOWS THAT
AXIS OF LEFTOVER INSTABILITY RESIDES TO THE W AS WELL. HENCE WHY
MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS TAKING ON A MORE N-S
PROPAGATION THIS EVENING AND WHY ONLY LEFTOVER CONVECTION IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT-MOD -SHRA ARE MAKING IT/S WAY INTO THE WRN ZONES.
FEEL THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THAT THE BULK OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION
IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

ELSEWHERE...FURTHER E...SPOTTY -SHRA CONTINUE TO FORM AHEAD OF THE
VORTMAX ALONG AN AXIS OF 30+ K-INDEX VALUES SUGGESTIVE OF MODERATE
COLUMN MOISTURE IN THE LOW-MID LVLS AND JUST ENOUGH CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE APPROACHING WAVE.
THESE ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FORMING IN-SITU ACROSS THE
REGION...SO AN AXIS OF HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS WILL BE
USED. SOME OF THESE ARE LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER INTO THE
PROVIDENCE-BOSTON CORRIDOR AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...
LOW TRANSITIONS AS AN OPEN WAVE LOW TOWARDS THE SE. ACCOMPANYING
MAIN CRUX OF ENERGY YIELDS ASCENT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE FUELED BY
A SW-PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WRAPPING AHEAD OF THE LOW /1.5
PWAT AIRMASS/ CONVERGING AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR
BUILDING SW BELOW H8. THIS YIELDS NW-SE ORIENTED AREAS OF F-GEN
FORCING WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS THAT WILL LIKELY PARENT WITH MID-
LEVEL FORCING.

A CONSENSUS WEIGHTING OF MODEL GUIDANCE PUTS THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS TOWARDS THE W/SW FORECAST ZONE WHICH WOULD BE EXPECTED BUT
CAN NOT RULE OUT OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. ONLY THE
IMMEDIATE E/SE MAY BE SPARED OF WET WEATHER...BUT AM NOT HOLDING
MY BREATH. LOW CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER WITH THE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IS IN AREAS OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. YET WITH E-ONSHORE FLOW
DRIVING IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR...ALONG WITH THE GREATER CAPACITY
FOR AREAS TO RADIATE EFFICIENTLY THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR E/SE PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE W MAY COMPLICATE THE MATTER.

WILL GO WITH LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-50S TO LOW-60S WITH THE COOL
SPOTS TO THE N/W WHICH BARELY SAW ANY SUN...AND THE E/SE IMMEDIATE
INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...

WITH THE LOW SWUNG SE OF THE REGION...CUTOFF ENERGY WRAPS REARWARD
AND SE INTO THE REGION INVOKING A HANGING TROUGH. RISING HEIGHTS IN
WAKE OF THE TROUGH ALLOW FOR ENHANCED RIDGING OF HIGH PRESSURE SW
AHEAD OF WHICH F-GEN FORCING IS MAXIMIZED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS.
PARENTING WITH MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER CUTOFF ENERGY...THERE IS THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR CONTINUED SHOWERY WEATHER OVER SW PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND.

WILL HOLD WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR W/SW PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BENEATH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS. AM NOT GOING TO GET
SPECIFIC WITH THE FORECAST POPS BUT RATHER BROAD BRUSH AN AREA
WHERE THERE IS HIGHEST CONFIDENCE. CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS E.

COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND RAIN COULD MAKE FOR A VERY CHILL DAY
ESPECIALLY FOR MID- TO LATE-AUGUST. THE DREARY WEATHER COULD YIELD
HIGHS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S FOR THE S/W...WARMER E WHERE THE
GREATER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SUNSHINE YET ONLY INTO THE UPPER-60S
WITH THE BRISK ONSHORE E-FLOW SURGING INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.

FRIDAY NIGHT...

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR BUILDING SW AS
HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO THE HANGING TROUGH SWINGING S/E. LOW-
LEVEL F-GEN FORCING AND MID-LEVEL FORCING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SW
INTO NY/PA AHEAD OF CONTINUED RIDGE ENHANCEMENT.

WHILE CONSENSUS WEIGHTING OF MODEL GUIDANCE YIELDS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR S/W PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE LONG E-FETCH
OFF THE WATERS LIKELY RESULTING IN MOISTURE POOLING WITHIN THE LOW-
LEVELS COULD RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PERHAPS EVEN DRIZZLE AS
THE FLOW UNDERGOES OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE E-SHORELINE.

A TOUGH FORECAST AND A LIKELY COOL AND DREARY NIGHT WITH LOWS
GETTING DOWN AROUND THE MID-50S. WITH DEWPOINTS AT SIMILAR VALUES...
ANTICIPATING A PLETHORA OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WHERE THE E-FLOW IS
LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
* MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS RIDGE TRIES
  TO BUILD EAST
* TIMING OF APPROACHING FRONT BY LATE NEXT WEEK REMAINS UNCERTAIN

BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AS H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES REMAINS PERSISTENT S OF GREENLAND
THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SOME QUESTIONS DO
COME INTO PLAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER FLOW TRIES TO
RECONFIGURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW FLOW TRIES TO FLATTEN OUT LATER THIS
WEEKEND...THEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS TO BUILD IN BRIEFLY
AROUND MONDAY OR TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL MODEL RUN DIFFERENCES MAY BE
RESOLVING...BUT STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE LATE NEXT WEEK.
THIS LENDS TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND TUESDAY.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

EXPECT HIGH PRES RIDGING TO CONTINUE TO NOSE IN FROM THE MARITIMES.
THE ORIENTATION OF THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP COOL ONSHORE WINDS. SEVERAL
OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS...MAINLY THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF...TRY TO WORK
CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP OFF THE OCEAN DURING SAT WITH LONG
FETCH OFF THE GULF OF MAINE. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD SHOWERS THAT MAY
MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY MORNING THEN PUSH W. COULD EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE AROUND SUNRISE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HAVE MENTIONED
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT...THOUGH...BECAUSE OF
UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE REALIZED. ONE CERTAINTY
THOUGH IS THAT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL REMAIN WITH THE ONSHORE
WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

LOOKS LIKE THE MARITIMES RIDGE AXIS TRIES TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS H5
RIDGE PUSHES SE OUT OF ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES AND ACTUALLY
BUILDS INTO QUEBEC...A SET UP THAT HAS BEEN RARE THIS SUMMER. WILL
REMAIN DRY BUT LOOKS LIKE MILDER TEMPS ON THE HORIZON AS WINDS BACK
AROUND TO W AND SW. TEMPS LOOK BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE
AUGUST...THOUGH WILL REMAIN A BIT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST. HUMIDITY
WILL ALSO START TO INCREASE DURING TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...

WHILE THE LAST SEVERAL ECMWF OP RUNS HAVE BEEN MUCH FASTER THAN THE
COUNTERPART GFS...THE 12Z RUN LOOKS MUCH CLOSER WITH ITS SOLUTION IN
KEEPING RIDGING ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  ONE BIG FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SYSTEM THAT WILL TRY TO MAKE
THE TURN AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFFSHORE...BUT THAT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.  WEAK COLD FRONT MAY STILL TRY TO WORK OUT OF QUEBEC LAST
WED OR THU...THEN COULD STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. STILL A
TOUGH CALL. ALSO...DEPENDING UPON AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...MIGHT SEE SOME SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
VICINITY OF THE FRONT. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS RUN
ALONG WITH GFS/EC ENSEMBLES FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SRN NH AND POINTS W OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. THESE ARE THE
MOST LIKELY SPOTS TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT ACK...WHERE IFR CIGS LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING.

TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH
LOW VFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY AREAS W OF THE WORCESTER
HILLS. SHOWERS LINGER IN THIS REGION AS WELL. BY TONIGHT...SHOWERS
DISSIPATE BUT THERE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE W AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CIGS IN THE E. THEREFORE...COMPLEX OVERNIGHT
SCENARIO...WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

SAT...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT MAYBE AREAS E OF
THE WST-ORH-AFN...WHERE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO THE
DAY IN LOW CIGS. BY AFTERNOON...LIKELY TO SEE VFR ALL LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR TODAY EXCEPT FOR
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT...EASTERLY FLOW
COULD YIELD A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
SHOULD THESE BE ESTABLISHED...ITS POSSIBLE THEY LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS SAT.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/VFR MAY BOUNCE BACK AND
FORTH THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS. BY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR AND MAY STAY THAT WAY THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY FOG WITH BRIEF
LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NE-WINDS INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO INTERIOR LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING
SE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SOME MILD STRENGTHENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE N. SUBSEQUENT PRESSURE-GRADIENT MAY YIELD SOME
DECENT FETCH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS TO CAUSE SEAS TO RISE...BUT
WILL HOLD AT 4 FEET. FEEL BRISK WINDS WILL DIMINISH FOG POTENTIAL
YET LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR AREAS TOWARDS THE
SW.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT E SWELLS COULD BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH LONG E FETCH...EVEN WITH WIND SPEEDS
LESS THAN 15 KT. MAY SEE PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES
EACH NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220209
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1009 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ANCHOR OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE: NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NEEDED ATTM. THE BAND OF RAIN
OVER SRN NH NOW MOVING INTO EXTREME SW MAINE. TIMING AND FORECAST
AMTS FROM PREVIOUS UPDATES ON TARGET.  SOME SCT SHWRS
ELSWHERE ACROSS THE FA CONTINUE AS WELL.

705 PM UPDATE: MADE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS FOR TNGT AND INTO EARLY
FRI FOR ALL OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NH INTO XTRM SW MAINE. GOING
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AND .5-1.0 INCHES OF QPF BY 12Z FRI. FURTHER
N+E POPS AND QPF WILL DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY. FOR FRI WITH UPPER
LOW OVER HEAD CREATING DIURNAL STEEP LAPSE RATES EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE FA.

510 PM UPDATE: MADE MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST FOR POPS/WX NOW
AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT TO REFLECT WIDESPREAD SHWR
ACTIVITY. INCREASED THE POPS ACROSS THE FA AND INCREASED QPF. SOME
AREAS IN NH MAY SEE A GOOD SHOT OF QPF IN THE SHWRS LATE TONIGHT
WHILE MAINE PORTIONS QPF AMTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MORE SCT
CONVECTIONS IS EXPECTED FRI. ADJUSTMENTS FOR FRI WILL BE UPDATED
ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

PREV DISC: BAND OF PRECIP THAT CROSSED SW ME...AND
BROUGHT SOME MODERATE RAFL...HAS MOVED NE AND WEAKENED. THIS WAS
SET OFF BY SOME BRIEF MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS. ALSO...SEEING SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG SFC TD BOUNDARY IN THE ERN ZONES...WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN MORE SUN AND HEATING. THESE SHOULD TRACK NNW ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND DIMINISH WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR TONIGHT...COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA MOVE INTO SRN AND
WRN NH THIS EVENING...BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH AS THEY HEAD EWD
TOWARD ME...WITH LITTLE CHC OF ANY PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS
AND MARINE AIR WILL KEEP MINS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 50S ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND COULD SEE SOME MID 50 READINGS IN THE
MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...LOOK FOR A WEAK 500 MB WAVE TO ALLOW A PUSH OF COOLER
AIR IN FROM THE NE...WHICH COULD SET OFF OF SCT SHRA....ESPECIALLY
IN THE MTNS. GRADIENT FLOW WILL SHIFT TO EAST AND DEEPEN A
BIT...SO IT WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 60S OR LOW 70S.

EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FRI NIGHT WITH MINS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY PUSHES SWD THRU THE REGION ON SAT. AS IT DOES
SO A STEADY CLEARING WILL WORK IN FROM N TO S. IF BOUNDARY HANGS
UP IN SRN NH...THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT POP UP DURING
PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES MOVES IN AND DOMINATES THE WX
THRU MIDWEEK. RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVES EWD...BUT WILL REMAIN JUST
OFF TO THE W. THIS WILL PREVENT THE SERIOUS HEAT FROM WORKING ALL
THE WAY EWD...BUT WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREES THAT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK A COLD FNT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE W. HOWEVER...ATTM THEY DISAGREE ON TIMING.
PREFER THE SLOWER TIMING AT THIS POINT...WITH A VERY BLOCKY
PATTERN IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
705 PM UPDATE: AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS IN SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE MOST PREVAILING LWR CIGS/VSBYS OVER THE SRN
HALF OF NH AND INTO XTRM SWRN MAINE.

PREV DISC:
COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...PERHAPS DROPPING TO LIFR AT
KLEB/KAUG...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FRI AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MORNING FOG IN
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE A SURGE OF NE WINDS TO AROUND
15 KTS ON FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THROUGH FRI
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220209
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1009 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ANCHOR OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE: NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NEEDED ATTM. THE BAND OF RAIN
OVER SRN NH NOW MOVING INTO EXTREME SW MAINE. TIMING AND FORECAST
AMTS FROM PREVIOUS UPDATES ON TARGET.  SOME SCT SHWRS
ELSWHERE ACROSS THE FA CONTINUE AS WELL.

705 PM UPDATE: MADE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS FOR TNGT AND INTO EARLY
FRI FOR ALL OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NH INTO XTRM SW MAINE. GOING
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AND .5-1.0 INCHES OF QPF BY 12Z FRI. FURTHER
N+E POPS AND QPF WILL DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY. FOR FRI WITH UPPER
LOW OVER HEAD CREATING DIURNAL STEEP LAPSE RATES EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE FA.

510 PM UPDATE: MADE MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST FOR POPS/WX NOW
AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT TO REFLECT WIDESPREAD SHWR
ACTIVITY. INCREASED THE POPS ACROSS THE FA AND INCREASED QPF. SOME
AREAS IN NH MAY SEE A GOOD SHOT OF QPF IN THE SHWRS LATE TONIGHT
WHILE MAINE PORTIONS QPF AMTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MORE SCT
CONVECTIONS IS EXPECTED FRI. ADJUSTMENTS FOR FRI WILL BE UPDATED
ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

PREV DISC: BAND OF PRECIP THAT CROSSED SW ME...AND
BROUGHT SOME MODERATE RAFL...HAS MOVED NE AND WEAKENED. THIS WAS
SET OFF BY SOME BRIEF MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS. ALSO...SEEING SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG SFC TD BOUNDARY IN THE ERN ZONES...WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN MORE SUN AND HEATING. THESE SHOULD TRACK NNW ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND DIMINISH WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR TONIGHT...COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA MOVE INTO SRN AND
WRN NH THIS EVENING...BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH AS THEY HEAD EWD
TOWARD ME...WITH LITTLE CHC OF ANY PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS
AND MARINE AIR WILL KEEP MINS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 50S ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND COULD SEE SOME MID 50 READINGS IN THE
MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...LOOK FOR A WEAK 500 MB WAVE TO ALLOW A PUSH OF COOLER
AIR IN FROM THE NE...WHICH COULD SET OFF OF SCT SHRA....ESPECIALLY
IN THE MTNS. GRADIENT FLOW WILL SHIFT TO EAST AND DEEPEN A
BIT...SO IT WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 60S OR LOW 70S.

EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FRI NIGHT WITH MINS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY PUSHES SWD THRU THE REGION ON SAT. AS IT DOES
SO A STEADY CLEARING WILL WORK IN FROM N TO S. IF BOUNDARY HANGS
UP IN SRN NH...THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT POP UP DURING
PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES MOVES IN AND DOMINATES THE WX
THRU MIDWEEK. RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVES EWD...BUT WILL REMAIN JUST
OFF TO THE W. THIS WILL PREVENT THE SERIOUS HEAT FROM WORKING ALL
THE WAY EWD...BUT WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREES THAT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK A COLD FNT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE W. HOWEVER...ATTM THEY DISAGREE ON TIMING.
PREFER THE SLOWER TIMING AT THIS POINT...WITH A VERY BLOCKY
PATTERN IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
705 PM UPDATE: AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS IN SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE MOST PREVAILING LWR CIGS/VSBYS OVER THE SRN
HALF OF NH AND INTO XTRM SWRN MAINE.

PREV DISC:
COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...PERHAPS DROPPING TO LIFR AT
KLEB/KAUG...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FRI AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MORNING FOG IN
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE A SURGE OF NE WINDS TO AROUND
15 KTS ON FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THROUGH FRI
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE



000
FXUS61 KBOX 220158
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
958 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...DISSOLVING SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE MARITIMES WILL BRING DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY OR
NEXT THURSDAY AS A FRONT MAY APPROACH OUT OF QUEBEC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKENED UPPER LVL CUTOFF VORTMAX NOW SLIDING SE
THROUGH NY INTO PA/NJ THIS EVENING. LATEST RAP ALSO SHOWS THAT
AXIS OF LEFTOVER INSTABILITY RESIDES TO THE W AS WELL. HENCE WHY
MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS TAKING ON A MORE N-S
PROPAGATION THIS EVENING AND WHY ONLY LEFTOVER CONVECTION IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT-MOD -SHRA ARE MAKING IT/S WAY INTO THE WRN ZONES.
FEEL THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THAT THE BULK OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION
IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

ELSEWHERE...FURTHER E...SPOTTY -SHRA CONTINUE TO FORM AHEAD OF THE
VORTMAX ALONG AN AXIS OF 30+ K-INDEX VALUES SUGGESTIVE OF MODERATE
COLUMN MOISTURE IN THE LOW-MID LVLS AND JUST ENOUGH CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE APPROACHING WAVE.
THESE ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FORMING IN-SITU ACROSS THE
REGION...SO AN AXIS OF HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS WILL BE
USED. SOME OF THESE ARE LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER INTO THE
PROVIDENCE-BOSTON CORRIDOR AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...
LOW TRANSITIONS AS AN OPEN WAVE LOW TOWARDS THE SE. ACCOMPANYING
MAIN CRUX OF ENERGY YIELDS ASCENT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE FUELED BY
A SW-PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WRAPPING AHEAD OF THE LOW /1.5
PWAT AIRMASS/ CONVERGING AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR
BUILDING SW BELOW H8. THIS YIELDS NW-SE ORIENTED AREAS OF F-GEN
FORCING WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS THAT WILL LIKELY PARENT WITH MID-
LEVEL FORCING.

A CONSENSUS WEIGHTING OF MODEL GUIDANCE PUTS THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS TOWARDS THE W/SW FORECAST ZONE WHICH WOULD BE EXPECTED BUT
CAN NOT RULE OUT OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. ONLY THE
IMMEDIATE E/SE MAY BE SPARED OF WET WEATHER...BUT AM NOT HOLDING
MY BREATH. LOW CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER WITH THE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IS IN AREAS OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. YET WITH E-ONSHORE FLOW
DRIVING IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR...ALONG WITH THE GREATER CAPACITY
FOR AREAS TO RADIATE EFFICIENTLY THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR E/SE PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE W MAY COMPLICATE THE MATTER.

WILL GO WITH LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-50S TO LOW-60S WITH THE COOL
SPOTS TO THE N/W WHICH BARELY SAW ANY SUN...AND THE E/SE IMMEDIATE
INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...

WITH THE LOW SWUNG SE OF THE REGION...CUTOFF ENERGY WRAPS REARWARD
AND SE INTO THE REGION INVOKING A HANGING TROUGH. RISING HEIGHTS IN
WAKE OF THE TROUGH ALLOW FOR ENHANCED RIDGING OF HIGH PRESSURE SW
AHEAD OF WHICH F-GEN FORCING IS MAXIMIZED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS.
PARENTING WITH MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER CUTOFF ENERGY...THERE IS THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR CONTINUED SHOWERY WEATHER OVER SW PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND.

WILL HOLD WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR W/SW PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BENEATH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS. AM NOT GOING TO GET
SPECIFIC WITH THE FORECAST POPS BUT RATHER BROAD BRUSH AN AREA
WHERE THERE IS HIGHEST CONFIDENCE. CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS E.

COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND RAIN COULD MAKE FOR A VERY CHILL DAY
ESPECIALLY FOR MID- TO LATE-AUGUST. THE DREARY WEATHER COULD YIELD
HIGHS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S FOR THE S/W...WARMER E WHERE THE
GREATER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SUNSHINE YET ONLY INTO THE UPPER-60S
WITH THE BRISK ONSHORE E-FLOW SURGING INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.

FRIDAY NIGHT...

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR BUILDING SW AS
HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO THE HANGING TROUGH SWINGING S/E. LOW-
LEVEL F-GEN FORCING AND MID-LEVEL FORCING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SW
INTO NY/PA AHEAD OF CONTINUED RIDGE ENHANCEMENT.

WHILE CONSENSUS WEIGHTING OF MODEL GUIDANCE YIELDS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR S/W PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE LONG E-FETCH
OFF THE WATERS LIKELY RESULTING IN MOISTURE POOLING WITHIN THE LOW-
LEVELS COULD RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PERHAPS EVEN DRIZZLE AS
THE FLOW UNDERGOES OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE E-SHORELINE.

A TOUGH FORECAST AND A LIKELY COOL AND DREARY NIGHT WITH LOWS
GETTING DOWN AROUND THE MID-50S. WITH DEWPOINTS AT SIMILAR VALUES...
ANTICIPATING A PLETHORA OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WHERE THE E-FLOW IS
LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
* MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS RIDGE TRIES
  TO BUILD EAST
* TIMING OF APPROACHING FRONT BY LATE NEXT WEEK REMAINS UNCERTAIN

BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AS H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES REMAINS PERSISTENT S OF GREENLAND
THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SOME QUESTIONS DO
COME INTO PLAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER FLOW TRIES TO
RECONFIGURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW FLOW TRIES TO FLATTEN OUT LATER THIS
WEEKEND...THEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS TO BUILD IN BRIEFLY
AROUND MONDAY OR TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL MODEL RUN DIFFERENCES MAY BE
RESOLVING...BUT STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE LATE NEXT WEEK.
THIS LENDS TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND TUESDAY.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

EXPECT HIGH PRES RIDGING TO CONTINUE TO NOSE IN FROM THE MARITIMES.
THE ORIENTATION OF THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP COOL ONSHORE WINDS. SEVERAL
OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS...MAINLY THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF...TRY TO WORK
CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP OFF THE OCEAN DURING SAT WITH LONG
FETCH OFF THE GULF OF MAINE. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD SHOWERS THAT MAY
MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY MORNING THEN PUSH W. COULD EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE AROUND SUNRISE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HAVE MENTIONED
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT...THOUGH...BECAUSE OF
UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE REALIZED. ONE CERTAINTY
THOUGH IS THAT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL REMAIN WITH THE ONSHORE
WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

LOOKS LIKE THE MARITIMES RIDGE AXIS TRIES TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS H5
RIDGE PUSHES SE OUT OF ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES AND ACTUALLY
BUILDS INTO QUEBEC...A SET UP THAT HAS BEEN RARE THIS SUMMER. WILL
REMAIN DRY BUT LOOKS LIKE MILDER TEMPS ON THE HORIZON AS WINDS BACK
AROUND TO W AND SW. TEMPS LOOK BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE
AUGUST...THOUGH WILL REMAIN A BIT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST. HUMIDITY
WILL ALSO START TO INCREASE DURING TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...

WHILE THE LAST SEVERAL ECMWF OP RUNS HAVE BEEN MUCH FASTER THAN THE
COUNTERPART GFS...THE 12Z RUN LOOKS MUCH CLOSER WITH ITS SOLUTION IN
KEEPING RIDGING ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  ONE BIG FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SYSTEM THAT WILL TRY TO MAKE
THE TURN AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFFSHORE...BUT THAT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.  WEAK COLD FRONT MAY STILL TRY TO WORK OUT OF QUEBEC LAST
WED OR THU...THEN COULD STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. STILL A
TOUGH CALL. ALSO...DEPENDING UPON AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...MIGHT SEE SOME SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
VICINITY OF THE FRONT. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS RUN
ALONG WITH GFS/EC ENSEMBLES FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR ACROSS E MA INTO RI EARLY. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING PATCHY FOG...WHILE AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NY STATE WILL
MOVE E. WILL SEE CONDITIONS LOWER TO AREAS OF MVFR-IFR. MAY SEE
BRIEF PATCHES OF DENSE FOG FROM 06Z-12Z ACROSS THE NORMALLY PRONE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

INTO THE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD...ANTICIPATING LOW-END
VFR CLOUDS MIXED IN WITH MVFR AND SHOWERS TO THE S/W ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. E-WINDS CONTINUING WITH A LONG FETCH OFF
THE WATERS. TRANSITIONING INTO EVENING...WHILE SHOWERS CONCLUDE...
A MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS MAY BECOME SOCKED IN WITH LOW-CLOUDS
AND/OR DENSE FOG. LIKELY TO SEE -DZ ALONG THE E-SHORE TERMINALS
TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WILL HOLD LOW-END VFR FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. COULD SEE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY LOWER
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. E-FLOW PERSISTING THROUGHOUT AND
INCREASING TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...THUS LENDING TO
CONFIDENCE MORE SO OF MVFR-IFR LOW-CLOUDS OVER DENSE FOG WITH -DZ.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO
LOWER INTO EVENING WITH INCREASING -SHRA CHANCES...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MAY REMAIN SOCKED IN AROUND MVFR TO AT LEAST MID
MORNING SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY FOG WITH BRIEF
LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NE-WINDS INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO INTERIOR LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING
SE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SOME MILD STRENGTHENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE N. SUBSEQUENT PRESSURE-GRADIENT MAY YIELD SOME
DECENT FETCH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS TO CAUSE SEAS TO RISE...BUT
WILL HOLD AT 4 FEET. FEEL BRISK WINDS WILL DIMINISH FOG POTENTIAL
YET LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR AREAS TOWARDS THE
SW.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT E SWELLS COULD BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH LONG E FETCH...EVEN WITH WIND SPEEDS
LESS THAN 15 KT. MAY SEE PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES
EACH NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 220012
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
812 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...DISSOLVING SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE MARITIMES WILL BRING DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY OR
NEXT THURSDAY AS A FRONT MAY APPROACH OUT OF QUEBEC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

755 PM UPDATE...
ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS THAT MOVED NE ACROSS N MA/S NH HAS MOVED
INTO CENTRAL NH/SW ME BY 23Z...BUT MORE SPOTTY SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED BEHIND THIS AREA WHICH CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL/N MA INTO S
CENTRAL/SW NH. HEAVIER SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL/E
NY STATE/N PA INTO EXTREME N NJ. POCKET OF K INDICES INTO THE
LOWER 30S HAS REACHED INTO THE AREA WHERE THE SPOTTY SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED...AS SEEN ON LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS...BUT BEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS FURTHER W. CURRENT TRENDS APPEAR TO KEEP THIS
TO OUR W...FOR NOW.

WITH MORE SPOTTY NATURE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...HAVE UPDATED
FORECAST TO BACK OFF A BIT...BUT THINK THE LEFTOVER AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL PUSH IN FROM THE W OVERNIGHT SO TRENDED TO THE
PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT FORECAST WHICH LOOKED REASONABLE.

DEWPTS INCREASING TO THE LOWER-MID 60S ALONG THE S COAST AND UP
INTO THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY AT 23Z. KEPT PATCHY FOG IN AS
TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSER TO THE INCREASING DEWPTS.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE BUT UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...
LOW TRANSITIONS AS AN OPEN WAVE LOW TOWARDS THE SE. ACCOMPANYING
MAIN CRUX OF ENERGY YIELDS ASCENT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE FUELED BY
A SW-PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WRAPPING AHEAD OF THE LOW /1.5
PWAT AIRMASS/ CONVERGING AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR
BUILDING SW BELOW H8. THIS YIELDS NW-SE ORIENTED AREAS OF F-GEN
FORCING WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS THAT WILL LIKELY PARENT WITH MID-
LEVEL FORCING.

A CONSENSUS WEIGHTING OF MODEL GUIDANCE PUTS THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS TOWARDS THE W/SW FORECAST ZONE WHICH WOULD BE EXPECTED BUT
CAN NOT RULE OUT OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. ONLY THE
IMMEDIATE E/SE MAY BE SPARED OF WET WEATHER...BUT AM NOT HOLDING
MY BREATH. LOW CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER WITH THE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IS IN AREAS OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. YET WITH E-ONSHORE FLOW
DRIVING IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR...ALONG WITH THE GREATER CAPACITY
FOR AREAS TO RADIATE EFFICIENTLY THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR E/SE PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE W MAY COMPLICATE THE MATTER.

WILL GO WITH LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-50S TO LOW-60S WITH THE COOL
SPOTS TO THE N/W WHICH BARELY SAW ANY SUN...AND THE E/SE IMMEDIATE
INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...

WITH THE LOW SWUNG SE OF THE REGION...CUTOFF ENERGY WRAPS REARWARD
AND SE INTO THE REGION INVOKING A HANGING TROUGH. RISING HEIGHTS IN
WAKE OF THE TROUGH ALLOW FOR ENHANCED RIDGING OF HIGH PRESSURE SW
AHEAD OF WHICH F-GEN FORCING IS MAXIMIZED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS.
PARENTING WITH MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER CUTOFF ENERGY...THERE IS THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR CONTINUED SHOWERY WEATHER OVER SW PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND.

WILL HOLD WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR W/SW PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BENEATH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS. AM NOT GOING TO GET
SPECIFIC WITH THE FORECAST POPS BUT RATHER BROAD BRUSH AN AREA
WHERE THERE IS HIGHEST CONFIDENCE. CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS E.

COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND RAIN COULD MAKE FOR A VERY CHILL DAY
ESPECIALLY FOR MID- TO LATE-AUGUST. THE DREARY WEATHER COULD YIELD
HIGHS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S FOR THE S/W...WARMER E WHERE THE
GREATER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SUNSHINE YET ONLY INTO THE UPPER-60S
WITH THE BRISK ONSHORE E-FLOW SURGING INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.

FRIDAY NIGHT...

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR BUILDING SW AS
HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO THE HANGING TROUGH SWINGING S/E. LOW-
LEVEL F-GEN FORCING AND MID-LEVEL FORCING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SW
INTO NY/PA AHEAD OF CONTINUED RIDGE ENHANCEMENT.

WHILE CONSENSUS WEIGHTING OF MODEL GUIDANCE YIELDS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR S/W PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE LONG E-FETCH
OFF THE WATERS LIKELY RESULTING IN MOISTURE POOLING WITHIN THE LOW-
LEVELS COULD RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PERHAPS EVEN DRIZZLE AS
THE FLOW UNDERGOES OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE E-SHORELINE.

A TOUGH FORECAST AND A LIKELY COOL AND DREARY NIGHT WITH LOWS
GETTING DOWN AROUND THE MID-50S. WITH DEWPOINTS AT SIMILAR VALUES...
ANTICIPATING A PLETHORA OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WHERE THE E-FLOW IS
LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
* MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS RIDGE TRIES
  TO BUILD EAST
* TIMING OF APPROACHING FRONT BY LATE NEXT WEEK REMAINS UNCERTAIN

BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AS H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES REMAINS PERSISTENT S OF GREENLAND
THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SOME QUESTIONS DO
COME INTO PLAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER FLOW TRIES TO
RECONFIGURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW FLOW TRIES TO FLATTEN OUT LATER THIS
WEEKEND...THEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS TO BUILD IN BRIEFLY
AROUND MONDAY OR TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL MODEL RUN DIFFERENCES MAY BE
RESOLVING...BUT STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE LATE NEXT WEEK.
THIS LENDS TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND TUESDAY.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

EXPECT HIGH PRES RIDGING TO CONTINUE TO NOSE IN FROM THE MARITIMES.
THE ORIENTATION OF THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP COOL ONSHORE WINDS. SEVERAL
OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS...MAINLY THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF...TRY TO WORK
CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP OFF THE OCEAN DURING SAT WITH LONG
FETCH OFF THE GULF OF MAINE. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD SHOWERS THAT MAY
MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY MORNING THEN PUSH W. COULD EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE AROUND SUNRISE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HAVE MENTIONED
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT...THOUGH...BECAUSE OF
UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE REALIZED. ONE CERTAINTY
THOUGH IS THAT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL REMAIN WITH THE ONSHORE
WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

LOOKS LIKE THE MARITIMES RIDGE AXIS TRIES TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS H5
RIDGE PUSHES SE OUT OF ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES AND ACTUALLY
BUILDS INTO QUEBEC...A SET UP THAT HAS BEEN RARE THIS SUMMER. WILL
REMAIN DRY BUT LOOKS LIKE MILDER TEMPS ON THE HORIZON AS WINDS BACK
AROUND TO W AND SW. TEMPS LOOK BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE
AUGUST...THOUGH WILL REMAIN A BIT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST. HUMIDITY
WILL ALSO START TO INCREASE DURING TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...

WHILE THE LAST SEVERAL ECMWF OP RUNS HAVE BEEN MUCH FASTER THAN THE
COUNTERPART GFS...THE 12Z RUN LOOKS MUCH CLOSER WITH ITS SOLUTION IN
KEEPING RIDGING ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  ONE BIG FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SYSTEM THAT WILL TRY TO MAKE
THE TURN AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFFSHORE...BUT THAT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.  WEAK COLD FRONT MAY STILL TRY TO WORK OUT OF QUEBEC LAST
WED OR THU...THEN COULD STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. STILL A
TOUGH CALL. ALSO...DEPENDING UPON AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...MIGHT SEE SOME SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
VICINITY OF THE FRONT. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS RUN
ALONG WITH GFS/EC ENSEMBLES FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR ACROSS E MA INTO RI EARLY. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING PATCHY FOG...WHILE AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NY STATE WILL
MOVE E. WILL SEE CONDITIONS LOWER TO AREAS OF MVFR-IFR. MAY SEE
BRIEF PATCHES OF DENSE FOG FROM 06Z-12Z ACROSS THE NORMALLY PRONE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

INTO THE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD...ANTICIPATING LOW-END
VFR CLOUDS MIXED IN WITH MVFR AND SHOWERS TO THE S/W ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. E-WINDS CONTINUING WITH A LONG FETCH OFF
THE WATERS. TRANSITIONING INTO EVENING...WHILE SHOWERS CONCLUDE...
A MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS MAY BECOME SOCKED IN WITH LOW-CLOUDS
AND/OR DENSE FOG. LIKELY TO SEE -DZ ALONG THE E-SHORE TERMINALS
TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WILL HOLD LOW-END VFR FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. COULD SEE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY LOWER
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. E-FLOW PERSISTING THROUGHOUT AND
INCREASING TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...THUS LENDING TO
CONFIDENCE MORE SO OF MVFR-IFR LOW-CLOUDS OVER DENSE FOG WITH -DZ.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO
LOWER INTO EVENING WITH INCREASING -SHRA CHANCES...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MAY REMAIN SOCKED IN AROUND MVFR TO AT LEAST MID
MORNING SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY FOG WITH BRIEF
LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NE-WINDS INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO INTERIOR LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING
SE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SOME MILD STRENGTHENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE N. SUBSEQUENT PRESSURE-GRADIENT MAY YIELD SOME
DECENT FETCH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS TO CAUSE SEAS TO RISE...BUT
WILL HOLD AT 4 FEET. FEEL BRISK WINDS WILL DIMINISH FOG POTENTIAL
YET LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR AREAS TOWARDS THE
SW.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT E SWELLS COULD BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH LONG E FETCH...EVEN WITH WIND SPEEDS
LESS THAN 15 KT. MAY SEE PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES
EACH NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/EVT
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 220012
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
812 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...DISSOLVING SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE MARITIMES WILL BRING DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY OR
NEXT THURSDAY AS A FRONT MAY APPROACH OUT OF QUEBEC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

755 PM UPDATE...
ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS THAT MOVED NE ACROSS N MA/S NH HAS MOVED
INTO CENTRAL NH/SW ME BY 23Z...BUT MORE SPOTTY SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED BEHIND THIS AREA WHICH CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL/N MA INTO S
CENTRAL/SW NH. HEAVIER SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL/E
NY STATE/N PA INTO EXTREME N NJ. POCKET OF K INDICES INTO THE
LOWER 30S HAS REACHED INTO THE AREA WHERE THE SPOTTY SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED...AS SEEN ON LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS...BUT BEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS FURTHER W. CURRENT TRENDS APPEAR TO KEEP THIS
TO OUR W...FOR NOW.

WITH MORE SPOTTY NATURE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...HAVE UPDATED
FORECAST TO BACK OFF A BIT...BUT THINK THE LEFTOVER AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL PUSH IN FROM THE W OVERNIGHT SO TRENDED TO THE
PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT FORECAST WHICH LOOKED REASONABLE.

DEWPTS INCREASING TO THE LOWER-MID 60S ALONG THE S COAST AND UP
INTO THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY AT 23Z. KEPT PATCHY FOG IN AS
TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSER TO THE INCREASING DEWPTS.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE BUT UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...
LOW TRANSITIONS AS AN OPEN WAVE LOW TOWARDS THE SE. ACCOMPANYING
MAIN CRUX OF ENERGY YIELDS ASCENT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE FUELED BY
A SW-PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WRAPPING AHEAD OF THE LOW /1.5
PWAT AIRMASS/ CONVERGING AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR
BUILDING SW BELOW H8. THIS YIELDS NW-SE ORIENTED AREAS OF F-GEN
FORCING WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS THAT WILL LIKELY PARENT WITH MID-
LEVEL FORCING.

A CONSENSUS WEIGHTING OF MODEL GUIDANCE PUTS THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS TOWARDS THE W/SW FORECAST ZONE WHICH WOULD BE EXPECTED BUT
CAN NOT RULE OUT OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. ONLY THE
IMMEDIATE E/SE MAY BE SPARED OF WET WEATHER...BUT AM NOT HOLDING
MY BREATH. LOW CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER WITH THE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IS IN AREAS OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. YET WITH E-ONSHORE FLOW
DRIVING IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR...ALONG WITH THE GREATER CAPACITY
FOR AREAS TO RADIATE EFFICIENTLY THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR E/SE PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE W MAY COMPLICATE THE MATTER.

WILL GO WITH LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-50S TO LOW-60S WITH THE COOL
SPOTS TO THE N/W WHICH BARELY SAW ANY SUN...AND THE E/SE IMMEDIATE
INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...

WITH THE LOW SWUNG SE OF THE REGION...CUTOFF ENERGY WRAPS REARWARD
AND SE INTO THE REGION INVOKING A HANGING TROUGH. RISING HEIGHTS IN
WAKE OF THE TROUGH ALLOW FOR ENHANCED RIDGING OF HIGH PRESSURE SW
AHEAD OF WHICH F-GEN FORCING IS MAXIMIZED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS.
PARENTING WITH MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER CUTOFF ENERGY...THERE IS THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR CONTINUED SHOWERY WEATHER OVER SW PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND.

WILL HOLD WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR W/SW PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BENEATH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS. AM NOT GOING TO GET
SPECIFIC WITH THE FORECAST POPS BUT RATHER BROAD BRUSH AN AREA
WHERE THERE IS HIGHEST CONFIDENCE. CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS E.

COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND RAIN COULD MAKE FOR A VERY CHILL DAY
ESPECIALLY FOR MID- TO LATE-AUGUST. THE DREARY WEATHER COULD YIELD
HIGHS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S FOR THE S/W...WARMER E WHERE THE
GREATER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SUNSHINE YET ONLY INTO THE UPPER-60S
WITH THE BRISK ONSHORE E-FLOW SURGING INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.

FRIDAY NIGHT...

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR BUILDING SW AS
HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO THE HANGING TROUGH SWINGING S/E. LOW-
LEVEL F-GEN FORCING AND MID-LEVEL FORCING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SW
INTO NY/PA AHEAD OF CONTINUED RIDGE ENHANCEMENT.

WHILE CONSENSUS WEIGHTING OF MODEL GUIDANCE YIELDS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR S/W PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE LONG E-FETCH
OFF THE WATERS LIKELY RESULTING IN MOISTURE POOLING WITHIN THE LOW-
LEVELS COULD RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PERHAPS EVEN DRIZZLE AS
THE FLOW UNDERGOES OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE E-SHORELINE.

A TOUGH FORECAST AND A LIKELY COOL AND DREARY NIGHT WITH LOWS
GETTING DOWN AROUND THE MID-50S. WITH DEWPOINTS AT SIMILAR VALUES...
ANTICIPATING A PLETHORA OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WHERE THE E-FLOW IS
LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
* MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS RIDGE TRIES
  TO BUILD EAST
* TIMING OF APPROACHING FRONT BY LATE NEXT WEEK REMAINS UNCERTAIN

BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AS H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES REMAINS PERSISTENT S OF GREENLAND
THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SOME QUESTIONS DO
COME INTO PLAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER FLOW TRIES TO
RECONFIGURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW FLOW TRIES TO FLATTEN OUT LATER THIS
WEEKEND...THEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS TO BUILD IN BRIEFLY
AROUND MONDAY OR TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL MODEL RUN DIFFERENCES MAY BE
RESOLVING...BUT STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE LATE NEXT WEEK.
THIS LENDS TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND TUESDAY.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

EXPECT HIGH PRES RIDGING TO CONTINUE TO NOSE IN FROM THE MARITIMES.
THE ORIENTATION OF THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP COOL ONSHORE WINDS. SEVERAL
OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS...MAINLY THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF...TRY TO WORK
CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP OFF THE OCEAN DURING SAT WITH LONG
FETCH OFF THE GULF OF MAINE. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD SHOWERS THAT MAY
MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY MORNING THEN PUSH W. COULD EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE AROUND SUNRISE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HAVE MENTIONED
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT...THOUGH...BECAUSE OF
UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE REALIZED. ONE CERTAINTY
THOUGH IS THAT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL REMAIN WITH THE ONSHORE
WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

LOOKS LIKE THE MARITIMES RIDGE AXIS TRIES TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS H5
RIDGE PUSHES SE OUT OF ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES AND ACTUALLY
BUILDS INTO QUEBEC...A SET UP THAT HAS BEEN RARE THIS SUMMER. WILL
REMAIN DRY BUT LOOKS LIKE MILDER TEMPS ON THE HORIZON AS WINDS BACK
AROUND TO W AND SW. TEMPS LOOK BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE
AUGUST...THOUGH WILL REMAIN A BIT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST. HUMIDITY
WILL ALSO START TO INCREASE DURING TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...

WHILE THE LAST SEVERAL ECMWF OP RUNS HAVE BEEN MUCH FASTER THAN THE
COUNTERPART GFS...THE 12Z RUN LOOKS MUCH CLOSER WITH ITS SOLUTION IN
KEEPING RIDGING ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  ONE BIG FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SYSTEM THAT WILL TRY TO MAKE
THE TURN AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFFSHORE...BUT THAT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.  WEAK COLD FRONT MAY STILL TRY TO WORK OUT OF QUEBEC LAST
WED OR THU...THEN COULD STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. STILL A
TOUGH CALL. ALSO...DEPENDING UPON AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...MIGHT SEE SOME SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
VICINITY OF THE FRONT. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS RUN
ALONG WITH GFS/EC ENSEMBLES FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR ACROSS E MA INTO RI EARLY. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING PATCHY FOG...WHILE AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NY STATE WILL
MOVE E. WILL SEE CONDITIONS LOWER TO AREAS OF MVFR-IFR. MAY SEE
BRIEF PATCHES OF DENSE FOG FROM 06Z-12Z ACROSS THE NORMALLY PRONE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

INTO THE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD...ANTICIPATING LOW-END
VFR CLOUDS MIXED IN WITH MVFR AND SHOWERS TO THE S/W ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. E-WINDS CONTINUING WITH A LONG FETCH OFF
THE WATERS. TRANSITIONING INTO EVENING...WHILE SHOWERS CONCLUDE...
A MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS MAY BECOME SOCKED IN WITH LOW-CLOUDS
AND/OR DENSE FOG. LIKELY TO SEE -DZ ALONG THE E-SHORE TERMINALS
TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WILL HOLD LOW-END VFR FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. COULD SEE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY LOWER
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. E-FLOW PERSISTING THROUGHOUT AND
INCREASING TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...THUS LENDING TO
CONFIDENCE MORE SO OF MVFR-IFR LOW-CLOUDS OVER DENSE FOG WITH -DZ.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO
LOWER INTO EVENING WITH INCREASING -SHRA CHANCES...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MAY REMAIN SOCKED IN AROUND MVFR TO AT LEAST MID
MORNING SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY FOG WITH BRIEF
LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NE-WINDS INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO INTERIOR LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING
SE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SOME MILD STRENGTHENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE N. SUBSEQUENT PRESSURE-GRADIENT MAY YIELD SOME
DECENT FETCH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS TO CAUSE SEAS TO RISE...BUT
WILL HOLD AT 4 FEET. FEEL BRISK WINDS WILL DIMINISH FOG POTENTIAL
YET LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR AREAS TOWARDS THE
SW.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT E SWELLS COULD BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH LONG E FETCH...EVEN WITH WIND SPEEDS
LESS THAN 15 KT. MAY SEE PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES
EACH NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/EVT
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT



000
FXUS61 KGYX 212313
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
713 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ANCHOR OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
705 PM UPDATE: MADE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS FOR TNGT AND INTO EARLY
FRI FOR ALL OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NH INTO XTRM SW MAINE. GOING
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AND .5-1.0 INCHES OF QPF BY 12Z FRI. FURTHER
N+E POPS AND QPF WILL DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY. FOR FRI WITH UPPER
LOW OVER HEAD CREATING DIURNAL STEEP LAPSE RATES EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE FA.

510 PM UPDATE: MADE MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST FOR POPS/WX NOW
AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT TO REFLECT WIDESPREAD SHWR
ACTIVITY. INCREASED THE POPS ACROSS THE FA AND INCREASED QPF. SOME
AREAS IN NH MAY SEE A GOOD SHOT OF QPF IN THE SHWRS LATE TONIGHT
WHILE MAINE PORTIONS QPF AMTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MORE SCT
CONVECTIONS IS EXPECTED FRI. ADJUSTMENTS FOR FRI WILL BE UPDATED
ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

PREV DISC: BAND OF PRECIP THAT CROSSED SW ME...AND
BROUGHT SOME MODERATE RAFL...HAS MOVED NE AND WEAKENED. THIS WAS
SET OFF BY SOME BRIEF MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS. ALSO...SEEING SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG SFC TD BOUNDARY IN THE ERN ZONES...WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN MORE SUN AND HEATING. THESE SHOULD TRACK NNW ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND DIMINISH WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR TONIGHT...COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA MOVE INTO SRN AND
WRN NH THIS EVENING...BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH AS THEY HEAD EWD
TOWARD ME...WITH LITTLE CHC OF ANY PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS
AND MARINE AIR WILL KEEP MINS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 50S ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND COULD SEE SOME MID 50 READINGS IN THE
MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...LOOK FOR A WEAK 500 MB WAVE TO ALLOW A PUSH OF COOLER
AIR IN FROM THE NE...WHICH COULD SET OFF OF SCT SHRA....ESPECIALLY
IN THE MTNS. GRADIENT FLOW WILL SHIFT TO EAST AND DEEPEN A
BIT...SO IT WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 60S OR LOW 70S.

EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FRI NIGHT WITH MINS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY PUSHES SWD THRU THE REGION ON SAT. AS IT DOES
SO A STEADY CLEARING WILL WORK IN FROM N TO S. IF BOUNDARY HANGS
UP IN SRN NH...THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT POP UP DURING
PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES MOVES IN AND DOMINATES THE WX
THRU MIDWEEK. RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVES EWD...BUT WILL REMAIN JUST
OFF TO THE W. THIS WILL PREVENT THE SERIOUS HEAT FROM WORKING ALL
THE WAY EWD...BUT WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREES THAT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK A COLD FNT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE W. HOWEVER...ATTM THEY DISAGREE ON TIMING.
PREFER THE SLOWER TIMING AT THIS POINT...WITH A VERY BLOCKY
PATTERN IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
705 PM UPDATE: AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS IN SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE MOST PREVAILING LWR CIGS/VSBYS OVER THE SRN
HALF OF NH AND INTO XTRM SWRN MAINE.

PREV DISC:
COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...PERHAPS DROPPING TO LIFR AT
KLEB/KAUG...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FRI AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MORNING FOG IN
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE A SURGE OF NE WINDS TO AROUND
15 KTS ON FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THROUGH FRI
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 212313
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
713 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ANCHOR OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
705 PM UPDATE: MADE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS FOR TNGT AND INTO EARLY
FRI FOR ALL OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NH INTO XTRM SW MAINE. GOING
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AND .5-1.0 INCHES OF QPF BY 12Z FRI. FURTHER
N+E POPS AND QPF WILL DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY. FOR FRI WITH UPPER
LOW OVER HEAD CREATING DIURNAL STEEP LAPSE RATES EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE FA.

510 PM UPDATE: MADE MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST FOR POPS/WX NOW
AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT TO REFLECT WIDESPREAD SHWR
ACTIVITY. INCREASED THE POPS ACROSS THE FA AND INCREASED QPF. SOME
AREAS IN NH MAY SEE A GOOD SHOT OF QPF IN THE SHWRS LATE TONIGHT
WHILE MAINE PORTIONS QPF AMTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MORE SCT
CONVECTIONS IS EXPECTED FRI. ADJUSTMENTS FOR FRI WILL BE UPDATED
ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

PREV DISC: BAND OF PRECIP THAT CROSSED SW ME...AND
BROUGHT SOME MODERATE RAFL...HAS MOVED NE AND WEAKENED. THIS WAS
SET OFF BY SOME BRIEF MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS. ALSO...SEEING SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG SFC TD BOUNDARY IN THE ERN ZONES...WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN MORE SUN AND HEATING. THESE SHOULD TRACK NNW ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND DIMINISH WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR TONIGHT...COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA MOVE INTO SRN AND
WRN NH THIS EVENING...BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH AS THEY HEAD EWD
TOWARD ME...WITH LITTLE CHC OF ANY PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS
AND MARINE AIR WILL KEEP MINS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 50S ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND COULD SEE SOME MID 50 READINGS IN THE
MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...LOOK FOR A WEAK 500 MB WAVE TO ALLOW A PUSH OF COOLER
AIR IN FROM THE NE...WHICH COULD SET OFF OF SCT SHRA....ESPECIALLY
IN THE MTNS. GRADIENT FLOW WILL SHIFT TO EAST AND DEEPEN A
BIT...SO IT WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 60S OR LOW 70S.

EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FRI NIGHT WITH MINS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY PUSHES SWD THRU THE REGION ON SAT. AS IT DOES
SO A STEADY CLEARING WILL WORK IN FROM N TO S. IF BOUNDARY HANGS
UP IN SRN NH...THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT POP UP DURING
PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES MOVES IN AND DOMINATES THE WX
THRU MIDWEEK. RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVES EWD...BUT WILL REMAIN JUST
OFF TO THE W. THIS WILL PREVENT THE SERIOUS HEAT FROM WORKING ALL
THE WAY EWD...BUT WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREES THAT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK A COLD FNT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE W. HOWEVER...ATTM THEY DISAGREE ON TIMING.
PREFER THE SLOWER TIMING AT THIS POINT...WITH A VERY BLOCKY
PATTERN IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
705 PM UPDATE: AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS IN SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE MOST PREVAILING LWR CIGS/VSBYS OVER THE SRN
HALF OF NH AND INTO XTRM SWRN MAINE.

PREV DISC:
COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...PERHAPS DROPPING TO LIFR AT
KLEB/KAUG...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FRI AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MORNING FOG IN
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE A SURGE OF NE WINDS TO AROUND
15 KTS ON FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THROUGH FRI
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 212124
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
524 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ANCHOR OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
510 PM UPDATE: MADE MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST FOR POPS/WX NOW
AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT TO REFLECT WIDESPREAD SHWR
ACTIVITY. INCREASED THE POPS ACROSS THE FA AND INCREASED QPF. SOME
AREAS IN NH MAY SEE A GOOD SHOT OF QPF IN THE SHWRS LATE TONIGHT
WHILE MAINE PORTIONS QPF AMTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MORE SCT
CONVECTIONS IS EXPECTED FRI. ADJUSTMENTS FOR FRI WILL BE UPDATED
ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

PREV DISC: BAND OF PRECIP THAT CROSSED SW ME...AND
BROUGHT SOME MODERATE RAFL...HAS MOVED NE AND WEAKENED. THIS WAS
SET OFF BY SOME BRIEF MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS. ALSO...SEEING SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG SFC TD BOUNDARY IN THE ERN ZONES...WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN MORE SUN AND HEATING. THESE SHOULD TRACK NNW ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND DIMINISH WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR TONIGHT...COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA MOVE INTO SRN AND
WRN NH THIS EVENING...BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH AS THEY HEAD EWD
TOWARD ME...WITH LITTLE CHC OF ANY PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS
AND MARINE AIR WILL KEEP MINS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 50S ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND COULD SEE SOME MID 50 READINGS IN THE
MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...LOOK FOR A WEAK 500 MB WAVE TO ALLOW A PUSH OF COOLER
AIR IN FROM THE NE...WHICH COULD SET OFF OF SCT SHRA....ESPECIALLY
IN THE MTNS. GRADIENT FLOW WILL SHIFT TO EAST AND DEEPEN A
BIT...SO IT WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 60S OR LOW 70S.

EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FRI NIGHT WITH MINS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY PUSHES SWD THRU THE REGION ON SAT. AS IT DOES
SO A STEADY CLEARING WILL WORK IN FROM N TO S. IF BOUNDARY HANGS
UP IN SRN NH...THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT POP UP DURING
PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES MOVES IN AND DOMINATES THE WX
THRU MIDWEEK. RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVES EWD...BUT WILL REMAIN JUST
OFF TO THE W. THIS WILL PREVENT THE SERIOUS HEAT FROM WORKING ALL
THE WAY EWD...BUT WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREES THAT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK A COLD FNT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE W. HOWEVER...ATTM THEY DISAGREE ON TIMING.
PREFER THE SLOWER TIMING AT THIS POINT...WITH A VERY BLOCKY
PATTERN IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING...PERHAPS DROPPING TO LIFR AT KLEB/KAUG...WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FRI AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MORNING FOG IN
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE A SURGE OF NE WINDS TO AROUND
15 KTS ON FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THROUGH FRI
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 212124
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
524 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ANCHOR OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
510 PM UPDATE: MADE MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST FOR POPS/WX NOW
AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT TO REFLECT WIDESPREAD SHWR
ACTIVITY. INCREASED THE POPS ACROSS THE FA AND INCREASED QPF. SOME
AREAS IN NH MAY SEE A GOOD SHOT OF QPF IN THE SHWRS LATE TONIGHT
WHILE MAINE PORTIONS QPF AMTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MORE SCT
CONVECTIONS IS EXPECTED FRI. ADJUSTMENTS FOR FRI WILL BE UPDATED
ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

PREV DISC: BAND OF PRECIP THAT CROSSED SW ME...AND
BROUGHT SOME MODERATE RAFL...HAS MOVED NE AND WEAKENED. THIS WAS
SET OFF BY SOME BRIEF MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS. ALSO...SEEING SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG SFC TD BOUNDARY IN THE ERN ZONES...WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN MORE SUN AND HEATING. THESE SHOULD TRACK NNW ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND DIMINISH WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR TONIGHT...COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA MOVE INTO SRN AND
WRN NH THIS EVENING...BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH AS THEY HEAD EWD
TOWARD ME...WITH LITTLE CHC OF ANY PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS
AND MARINE AIR WILL KEEP MINS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 50S ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND COULD SEE SOME MID 50 READINGS IN THE
MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...LOOK FOR A WEAK 500 MB WAVE TO ALLOW A PUSH OF COOLER
AIR IN FROM THE NE...WHICH COULD SET OFF OF SCT SHRA....ESPECIALLY
IN THE MTNS. GRADIENT FLOW WILL SHIFT TO EAST AND DEEPEN A
BIT...SO IT WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 60S OR LOW 70S.

EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FRI NIGHT WITH MINS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY PUSHES SWD THRU THE REGION ON SAT. AS IT DOES
SO A STEADY CLEARING WILL WORK IN FROM N TO S. IF BOUNDARY HANGS
UP IN SRN NH...THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT POP UP DURING
PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES MOVES IN AND DOMINATES THE WX
THRU MIDWEEK. RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVES EWD...BUT WILL REMAIN JUST
OFF TO THE W. THIS WILL PREVENT THE SERIOUS HEAT FROM WORKING ALL
THE WAY EWD...BUT WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREES THAT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK A COLD FNT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE W. HOWEVER...ATTM THEY DISAGREE ON TIMING.
PREFER THE SLOWER TIMING AT THIS POINT...WITH A VERY BLOCKY
PATTERN IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING...PERHAPS DROPPING TO LIFR AT KLEB/KAUG...WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FRI AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MORNING FOG IN
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE A SURGE OF NE WINDS TO AROUND
15 KTS ON FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THROUGH FRI
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE



000
FXUS61 KBOX 211944
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
344 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...DISSOLVING SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE MARITIMES WILL BRING DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY OR
NEXT THURSDAY AS A FRONT MAY APPROACH OUT OF QUEBEC.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

INTO THE EVENING...

MOISTURE LOADING CONTINUING WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS BENEATH MID-
LEVEL ASCENT FORCED BY VORTICITY ADVECTION ROUND THE BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO SLIDE SE AND WEAKEN. CHALLENGING TO SAY
THE LEAST TO PIN-POINT SHOWERS AND BE SPECIFIC. HAVE GONE WITH A
BROAD-BRUSH CONSENSUS EMPHASIZING FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF WHERE
LIKELY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND F-GEN FORCING WILL BE GREATEST
BENEATH MID-LEVEL LIFT. ASIDE FROM THE IMMEDIATE E...MOST LOCALES
COULD SEE WET WEATHER INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
PRESENTLY FORECAST ACROSS THE W.

TONIGHT...

LOW TRANSITIONS AS AN OPEN-WAVE LOW TOWARDS THE SE. ACCOMPANYING
MAIN CRUX OF ENERGY YIELDS ASCENT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE FUELED BY A
SW-PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WRAPPING AHEAD OF THE LOW /1.5 PWAT
AIRMASS/ CONVERGING AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR BUILDING SW
BELOW H8. THIS YIELDS NW-SE ORIENTED AREAS OF F-GEN FORCING WITHIN
THE LOW-LEVELS THAT WILL LIKELY PARENT WITH MID-LEVEL FORCING.

A CONSENSUS WEIGHTING OF MODEL GUIDANCE PUTS THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS TOWARDS THE W/SW FORECAST ZONE WHICH WOULD BE EXPECTED BUT
CAN NOT RULE OUT OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. ONLY THE
IMMEDIATE E/SE MAY BE SPARED OF WET WEATHER...BUT AM NOT HOLDING
MY BREATH. LOW CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER WITH THE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IS IN AREAS OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. YET WITH E-ONSHORE FLOW
DRIVING IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR...ALONG WITH THE GREATER CAPACITY
FOR AREAS TO RADIATE EFFICIENTLY THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR E/SE PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE W MAY COMPLICATE THE MATTER.

WILL GO WITH LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-50S TO LOW-60S WITH THE COOL
SPOTS TO THE N/W WHICH BARELY SAW ANY SUN...AND THE E/SE IMMEDIATE
INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...

WITH THE LOW SWUNG SE OF THE REGION...CUTOFF ENERGY WRAPS REARWARD
AND SE INTO THE REGION INVOKING A HANGING TROUGH. RISING HEIGHTS IN
WAKE OF THE TROUGH ALLOW FOR ENHANCED RIDGING OF HIGH PRESSURE SW
AHEAD OF WHICH F-GEN FORCING IS MAXIMIZED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS.
PARENTING WITH MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER CUTOFF ENERGY...THERE IS THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR CONTINUED SHOWERY WEATHER OVER SW PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND.

WILL HOLD WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR W/SW PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BENEATH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS. AM NOT GOING TO GET
SPECIFIC WITH THE FORECAST POPS BUT RATHER BROAD BRUSH AN AREA
WHERE THERE IS HIGHEST CONFIDENCE. CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS E.

COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND RAIN COULD MAKE FOR A VERY CHILL DAY
ESPECIALLY FOR MID- TO LATE-AUGUST. THE DREARY WEATHER COULD YIELD
HIGHS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S FOR THE S/W...WARMER E WHERE THE
GREATER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SUNSHINE YET ONLY INTO THE UPPER-60S
WITH THE BRISK ONSHORE E-FLOW SURGING INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.

FRIDAY NIGHT...

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR BUILDING SW AS
HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO THE HANGING TROUGH SWINGING S/E. LOW-
LEVEL F-GEN FORCING AND MID-LEVEL FORCING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SW
INTO NY/PA AHEAD OF CONTINUED RIDGE ENHANCEMENT.

WHILE CONSENSUS WEIGHTING OF MODEL GUIDANCE YIELDS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR S/W PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE LONG E-FETCH
OFF THE WATERS LIKELY RESULTING IN MOISTURE POOLING WITHIN THE LOW-
LEVELS COULD RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PERHAPS EVEN DRIZZLE AS
THE FLOW UNDERGOES OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE E-SHORELINE.

A TOUGH FORECAST AND A LIKELY COOL AND DREARY NIGHT WITH LOWS
GETTING DOWN AROUND THE MID-50S. WITH DEWPOINTS AT SIMILAR VALUES...
ANTICIPATING A PLETHORA OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WHERE THE E-FLOW IS
LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
* MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS RIDGE TRIES
  TO BUILD EAST
* TIMING OF APPROACHING FRONT BY LATE NEXT WEEK REMAINS UNCERTAIN

BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AS H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES REMAINS PERSISTENT S OF GREENLAND
THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SOME QUESTIONS DO
COME INTO PLAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER FLOW TRIES TO
RECONFIGURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW FLOW TRIES TO FLATTEN OUT LATER THIS
WEEKEND...THEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS TO BUILD IN BRIEFLY
AROUND MONDAY OR TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL MODEL RUN DIFFERENCES MAY BE
RESOLVING...BUT STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE LATE NEXT WEEK.
THIS LENDS TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND TUESDAY.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

EXPECT HIGH PRES RIDGING TO CONTINUE TO NOSE IN FROM THE MARITIMES.
THE ORIENTATION OF THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP COOL ONSHORE WINDS. SEVERAL
OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS...MAINLY THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF...TRY TO WORK
CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP OFF THE OCEAN DURING SAT WITH LONG
FETCH OFF THE GULF OF MAINE. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD SHOWERS THAT MAY
MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY MORNING THEN PUSH W. COULD EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE AROUND SUNRISE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HAVE MENTIONED
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT...THOUGH...BECAUSE OF
UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE REALIZED. ONE CERTAINTY
THOUGH IS THAT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL REMAIN WITH THE ONSHORE
WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

LOOKS LIKE THE MARITIMES RIDGE AXIS TRIES TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS H5
RIDGE PUSHES SE OUT OF ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES AND ACTUALLY
BUILDS INTO QUEBEC...A SET UP THAT HAS BEEN RARE THIS SUMMER. WILL
REMAIN DRY BUT LOOKS LIKE MILDER TEMPS ON THE HORIZON AS WINDS BACK
AROUND TO W AND SW. TEMPS LOOK BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE
AUGUST...THOUGH WILL REMAIN A BIT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST. HUMIDITY
WILL ALSO START TO INCREASE DURING TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...

WHILE THE LAST SEVERAL ECMWF OP RUNS HAVE BEEN MUCH FASTER THAN THE
COUNTERPART GFS...THE 12Z RUN LOOKS MUCH CLOSER WITH ITS SOLUTION IN
KEEPING RIDGING ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  ONE BIG FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SYSTEM THAT WILL TRY TO MAKE
THE TURN AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFFSHORE...BUT THAT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.  WEAK COLD FRONT MAY STILL TRY TO WORK OUT OF QUEBEC LAST
WED OR THU...THEN COULD STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. STILL A
TOUGH CALL. ALSO...DEPENDING UPON AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...MIGHT SEE SOME SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
VICINITY OF THE FRONT. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS RUN
ALONG WITH GFS/EC ENSEMBLES FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR INTO THIS EVENING. BUT AS E-ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND SHOWERS
BUILD OVER THE S/W NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS...GREATER PROPENSITY FOR
A MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. UNSURE AS
TO OUTCOMES E/SE. ITS POSSIBLE THE REGION REMAINS VFR ALBEIT SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH EVENING
COOLING.

INTO THE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD...ANTICIPATING LOW-END
VFR CLOUDS MIXED IN WITH MVFR AND SHOWERS TO THE S/W ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. E-WINDS CONTINUING WITH A LONG FETCH OFF
THE WATERS. TRANSITIONING INTO EVENING...WHILE SHOWERS CONCLUDE...
A MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS MAY BECOME SOCKED IN WITH LOW-CLOUDS
AND/OR DENSE FOG. LIKELY TO SEE -DZ ALONG THE E-SHORE TERMINALS
TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WILL HOLD LOW-END VFR FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. COULD SEE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY LOWER
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. E-FLOW PERSISTING THROUGHOUT AND
INCREASING TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...THUS LENDING TO
CONFIDENCE MORE SO OF MVFR-IFR LOW-CLOUDS OVER DENSE FOG WITH -DZ.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO
LOWER INTO EVENING WITH INCREASING -SHRA CHANCES. MAY REMAIN
SOCKED IN AROUND MVFR THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ALL THE WAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY FOG WITH BRIEF
LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NE-WINDS INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO INTERIOR LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING
SE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SOME MILD STRENGTHENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE N. SUBSEQUENT PRESSURE-GRADIENT MAY YIELD SOME
DECENT FETCH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS TO CAUSE SEAS TO RISE...BUT
WILL HOLD AT 4 FEET. FEEL BRISK WINDS WILL DIMINISH FOG POTENTIAL
YET LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR AREAS TOWARDS THE
SW.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT E SWELLS COULD BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH LONG E FETCH...EVEN WITH WIND SPEEDS
LESS THAN 15 KT. MAY SEE PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES
EACH NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 211944
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
344 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...DISSOLVING SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE MARITIMES WILL BRING DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY OR
NEXT THURSDAY AS A FRONT MAY APPROACH OUT OF QUEBEC.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

INTO THE EVENING...

MOISTURE LOADING CONTINUING WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS BENEATH MID-
LEVEL ASCENT FORCED BY VORTICITY ADVECTION ROUND THE BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO SLIDE SE AND WEAKEN. CHALLENGING TO SAY
THE LEAST TO PIN-POINT SHOWERS AND BE SPECIFIC. HAVE GONE WITH A
BROAD-BRUSH CONSENSUS EMPHASIZING FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF WHERE
LIKELY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND F-GEN FORCING WILL BE GREATEST
BENEATH MID-LEVEL LIFT. ASIDE FROM THE IMMEDIATE E...MOST LOCALES
COULD SEE WET WEATHER INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
PRESENTLY FORECAST ACROSS THE W.

TONIGHT...

LOW TRANSITIONS AS AN OPEN-WAVE LOW TOWARDS THE SE. ACCOMPANYING
MAIN CRUX OF ENERGY YIELDS ASCENT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE FUELED BY A
SW-PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WRAPPING AHEAD OF THE LOW /1.5 PWAT
AIRMASS/ CONVERGING AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR BUILDING SW
BELOW H8. THIS YIELDS NW-SE ORIENTED AREAS OF F-GEN FORCING WITHIN
THE LOW-LEVELS THAT WILL LIKELY PARENT WITH MID-LEVEL FORCING.

A CONSENSUS WEIGHTING OF MODEL GUIDANCE PUTS THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS TOWARDS THE W/SW FORECAST ZONE WHICH WOULD BE EXPECTED BUT
CAN NOT RULE OUT OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. ONLY THE
IMMEDIATE E/SE MAY BE SPARED OF WET WEATHER...BUT AM NOT HOLDING
MY BREATH. LOW CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER WITH THE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IS IN AREAS OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. YET WITH E-ONSHORE FLOW
DRIVING IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR...ALONG WITH THE GREATER CAPACITY
FOR AREAS TO RADIATE EFFICIENTLY THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR E/SE PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE W MAY COMPLICATE THE MATTER.

WILL GO WITH LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-50S TO LOW-60S WITH THE COOL
SPOTS TO THE N/W WHICH BARELY SAW ANY SUN...AND THE E/SE IMMEDIATE
INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...

WITH THE LOW SWUNG SE OF THE REGION...CUTOFF ENERGY WRAPS REARWARD
AND SE INTO THE REGION INVOKING A HANGING TROUGH. RISING HEIGHTS IN
WAKE OF THE TROUGH ALLOW FOR ENHANCED RIDGING OF HIGH PRESSURE SW
AHEAD OF WHICH F-GEN FORCING IS MAXIMIZED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS.
PARENTING WITH MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER CUTOFF ENERGY...THERE IS THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR CONTINUED SHOWERY WEATHER OVER SW PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND.

WILL HOLD WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR W/SW PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BENEATH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS. AM NOT GOING TO GET
SPECIFIC WITH THE FORECAST POPS BUT RATHER BROAD BRUSH AN AREA
WHERE THERE IS HIGHEST CONFIDENCE. CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS E.

COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND RAIN COULD MAKE FOR A VERY CHILL DAY
ESPECIALLY FOR MID- TO LATE-AUGUST. THE DREARY WEATHER COULD YIELD
HIGHS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S FOR THE S/W...WARMER E WHERE THE
GREATER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SUNSHINE YET ONLY INTO THE UPPER-60S
WITH THE BRISK ONSHORE E-FLOW SURGING INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.

FRIDAY NIGHT...

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR BUILDING SW AS
HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO THE HANGING TROUGH SWINGING S/E. LOW-
LEVEL F-GEN FORCING AND MID-LEVEL FORCING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SW
INTO NY/PA AHEAD OF CONTINUED RIDGE ENHANCEMENT.

WHILE CONSENSUS WEIGHTING OF MODEL GUIDANCE YIELDS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR S/W PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE LONG E-FETCH
OFF THE WATERS LIKELY RESULTING IN MOISTURE POOLING WITHIN THE LOW-
LEVELS COULD RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PERHAPS EVEN DRIZZLE AS
THE FLOW UNDERGOES OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE E-SHORELINE.

A TOUGH FORECAST AND A LIKELY COOL AND DREARY NIGHT WITH LOWS
GETTING DOWN AROUND THE MID-50S. WITH DEWPOINTS AT SIMILAR VALUES...
ANTICIPATING A PLETHORA OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WHERE THE E-FLOW IS
LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
* MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS RIDGE TRIES
  TO BUILD EAST
* TIMING OF APPROACHING FRONT BY LATE NEXT WEEK REMAINS UNCERTAIN

BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AS H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES REMAINS PERSISTENT S OF GREENLAND
THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SOME QUESTIONS DO
COME INTO PLAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER FLOW TRIES TO
RECONFIGURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW FLOW TRIES TO FLATTEN OUT LATER THIS
WEEKEND...THEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS TO BUILD IN BRIEFLY
AROUND MONDAY OR TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL MODEL RUN DIFFERENCES MAY BE
RESOLVING...BUT STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE LATE NEXT WEEK.
THIS LENDS TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND TUESDAY.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

EXPECT HIGH PRES RIDGING TO CONTINUE TO NOSE IN FROM THE MARITIMES.
THE ORIENTATION OF THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP COOL ONSHORE WINDS. SEVERAL
OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS...MAINLY THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF...TRY TO WORK
CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP OFF THE OCEAN DURING SAT WITH LONG
FETCH OFF THE GULF OF MAINE. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD SHOWERS THAT MAY
MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY MORNING THEN PUSH W. COULD EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE AROUND SUNRISE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HAVE MENTIONED
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT...THOUGH...BECAUSE OF
UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE REALIZED. ONE CERTAINTY
THOUGH IS THAT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL REMAIN WITH THE ONSHORE
WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

LOOKS LIKE THE MARITIMES RIDGE AXIS TRIES TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS H5
RIDGE PUSHES SE OUT OF ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES AND ACTUALLY
BUILDS INTO QUEBEC...A SET UP THAT HAS BEEN RARE THIS SUMMER. WILL
REMAIN DRY BUT LOOKS LIKE MILDER TEMPS ON THE HORIZON AS WINDS BACK
AROUND TO W AND SW. TEMPS LOOK BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE
AUGUST...THOUGH WILL REMAIN A BIT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST. HUMIDITY
WILL ALSO START TO INCREASE DURING TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...

WHILE THE LAST SEVERAL ECMWF OP RUNS HAVE BEEN MUCH FASTER THAN THE
COUNTERPART GFS...THE 12Z RUN LOOKS MUCH CLOSER WITH ITS SOLUTION IN
KEEPING RIDGING ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  ONE BIG FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SYSTEM THAT WILL TRY TO MAKE
THE TURN AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFFSHORE...BUT THAT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.  WEAK COLD FRONT MAY STILL TRY TO WORK OUT OF QUEBEC LAST
WED OR THU...THEN COULD STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. STILL A
TOUGH CALL. ALSO...DEPENDING UPON AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...MIGHT SEE SOME SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
VICINITY OF THE FRONT. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS RUN
ALONG WITH GFS/EC ENSEMBLES FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR INTO THIS EVENING. BUT AS E-ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND SHOWERS
BUILD OVER THE S/W NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS...GREATER PROPENSITY FOR
A MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. UNSURE AS
TO OUTCOMES E/SE. ITS POSSIBLE THE REGION REMAINS VFR ALBEIT SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH EVENING
COOLING.

INTO THE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD...ANTICIPATING LOW-END
VFR CLOUDS MIXED IN WITH MVFR AND SHOWERS TO THE S/W ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. E-WINDS CONTINUING WITH A LONG FETCH OFF
THE WATERS. TRANSITIONING INTO EVENING...WHILE SHOWERS CONCLUDE...
A MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS MAY BECOME SOCKED IN WITH LOW-CLOUDS
AND/OR DENSE FOG. LIKELY TO SEE -DZ ALONG THE E-SHORE TERMINALS
TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WILL HOLD LOW-END VFR FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. COULD SEE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY LOWER
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. E-FLOW PERSISTING THROUGHOUT AND
INCREASING TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...THUS LENDING TO
CONFIDENCE MORE SO OF MVFR-IFR LOW-CLOUDS OVER DENSE FOG WITH -DZ.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO
LOWER INTO EVENING WITH INCREASING -SHRA CHANCES. MAY REMAIN
SOCKED IN AROUND MVFR THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ALL THE WAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY FOG WITH BRIEF
LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NE-WINDS INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO INTERIOR LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING
SE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SOME MILD STRENGTHENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE N. SUBSEQUENT PRESSURE-GRADIENT MAY YIELD SOME
DECENT FETCH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS TO CAUSE SEAS TO RISE...BUT
WILL HOLD AT 4 FEET. FEEL BRISK WINDS WILL DIMINISH FOG POTENTIAL
YET LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR AREAS TOWARDS THE
SW.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT E SWELLS COULD BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH LONG E FETCH...EVEN WITH WIND SPEEDS
LESS THAN 15 KT. MAY SEE PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES
EACH NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 211938
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
338 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ANCHOR OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BAND OF PRECIP THAT CROSSED SW ME...AND BROUGHT SOME MODERATE
RAFL...HAS MOVED NE AND WEAKENED. THIS WAS SET OFF BY SOME BRIEF
MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS. ALSO...SEEING SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG
SFC TD BOUNDARY IN THE ERN ZONES...WHERE THERE HAS BEEN MORE SUN
AND HEATING. THESE SHOULD TRACK NNW ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
DIMINISH WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR TONIGHT...COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA MOVE INTO SRN AND
WRN NH THIS EVENING...BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH AS THEY HEAD EWD
TOWARD ME...WITH LITTLE CHC OF ANY PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS
AND MARINE AIR WILL KEEP MINS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 50S ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND COULD SEE SOME MID 50 READINGS IN THE
MTNS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...LOOK FOR A WEAK 500 MB WAVE TO ALLOW A PUSH OF COOLER
AIR IN FROM THE NE...WHICH COULD SET OFF OF SCT SHRA....ESPECIALLY
IN THE MTNS. GRADIENT FLOW WILL SHIFT TO EAST AND DEEPEN A
BIT...SO IT WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 60S OR LOW 70S.

EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FRI NIGHT WITH MINS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY PUSHES SWD THRU THE REGION ON SAT. AS IT DOES
SO A STEADY CLEARING WILL WORK IN FROM N TO S. IF BOUNDARY HANGS
UP IN SRN NH...THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT POP UP DURING
PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES MOVES IN AND DOMINATES THE WX
THRU MIDWEEK. RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVES EWD...BUT WILL REMAIN JUST
OFF TO THE W. THIS WILL PREVENT THE SERIOUS HEAT FROM WORKING ALL
THE WAY EWD...BUT WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREES THAT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK A COLD FNT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE W. HOWEVER...ATTM THEY DISAGREE ON TIMING.
PREFER THE SLOWER TIMING AT THIS POINT...WITH A VERY BLOCKY
PATTERN IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING...PERHAPS DROPPING TO LIFR AT KLEB/KAUG...WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FRI AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MORNING FOG IN
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE A SURGE OF NE WINDS TO AROUND
15 KTS ON FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THROUGH FRI
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 211938
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
338 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ANCHOR OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BAND OF PRECIP THAT CROSSED SW ME...AND BROUGHT SOME MODERATE
RAFL...HAS MOVED NE AND WEAKENED. THIS WAS SET OFF BY SOME BRIEF
MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS. ALSO...SEEING SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG
SFC TD BOUNDARY IN THE ERN ZONES...WHERE THERE HAS BEEN MORE SUN
AND HEATING. THESE SHOULD TRACK NNW ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
DIMINISH WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR TONIGHT...COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA MOVE INTO SRN AND
WRN NH THIS EVENING...BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH AS THEY HEAD EWD
TOWARD ME...WITH LITTLE CHC OF ANY PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS
AND MARINE AIR WILL KEEP MINS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 50S ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND COULD SEE SOME MID 50 READINGS IN THE
MTNS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...LOOK FOR A WEAK 500 MB WAVE TO ALLOW A PUSH OF COOLER
AIR IN FROM THE NE...WHICH COULD SET OFF OF SCT SHRA....ESPECIALLY
IN THE MTNS. GRADIENT FLOW WILL SHIFT TO EAST AND DEEPEN A
BIT...SO IT WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 60S OR LOW 70S.

EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FRI NIGHT WITH MINS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY PUSHES SWD THRU THE REGION ON SAT. AS IT DOES
SO A STEADY CLEARING WILL WORK IN FROM N TO S. IF BOUNDARY HANGS
UP IN SRN NH...THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT POP UP DURING
PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES MOVES IN AND DOMINATES THE WX
THRU MIDWEEK. RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVES EWD...BUT WILL REMAIN JUST
OFF TO THE W. THIS WILL PREVENT THE SERIOUS HEAT FROM WORKING ALL
THE WAY EWD...BUT WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREES THAT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK A COLD FNT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE W. HOWEVER...ATTM THEY DISAGREE ON TIMING.
PREFER THE SLOWER TIMING AT THIS POINT...WITH A VERY BLOCKY
PATTERN IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING...PERHAPS DROPPING TO LIFR AT KLEB/KAUG...WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FRI AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MORNING FOG IN
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE A SURGE OF NE WINDS TO AROUND
15 KTS ON FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THROUGH FRI
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211800
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
200 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THIS WEEKEND. A WARM-UP
IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

2 PM UPDATE...

NOT AN EASY MORNING FORECAST AND ONE IN WHICH THE MODELS DID NOT
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON...AND NEITHER DID I. BAND OF RAIN PRESENTLY
SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION APPEARS FOCUSED ALONG A LEADING EDGE OF
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND F-GEN FORCING AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE AND SUBSEQUENT ASCENT PINWHEELING ROUND THE BROADER LOW
OVER THE E GREAT LAKES. ANYTHING GOES WITH MODEST LIFT OF MOISTURE
ADVECTED THROUGH A DECENT LOW-LEVEL THETA-E PLUME AHEAD OF THE
LOW.

WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS TOWARDS THE NE DIMINISHING AGAINST
THE RIDGE AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF HIGH. ACTIVITY
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PA/NY. AS THE WEAKENING LOW SHIFTS SE
AS AN OPEN WAVE...WILL FOCUS GREATER CHANCES FOR PRECIP TOWARDS
THE S/W AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS TOWARDS BETTER THERMAL AND INSTABILITY
AXES. IT IS HERE THE COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
AND THE MOIST TONGUE OF CONVERGENT THETA-E AIR SHOULD COLLOCATE TO
YIELD SHOWER ACTIVITY...EVEN THOUGH THE BETTER ACTIVITY WILL BE SW
ACROSS THE NYC TRI-STATE REGION AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WARM-
FRONT.

STILL HOLDING WITH HIGHS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-70S. THE WARMEST
OF CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE S/E WITH THE GREATER ABUNDANCE OF

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...
SLIGHTLY INCREASED THREAT FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS...BUT STILL MAINLY
ACROSS THE W THANKS TO SOME LEFTOVER SUBSIDENCE CLOSER TO THE
GRADUALLY REBOUNDING INVERTED RIDGE. THE REMNANT VORT MAX FROM AN
UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. JET ENERGY THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN IS WEAK AND WHAT
IS LEFT OF A SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE WASHED OUT FOR MOST
PART. THEREFORE...IT IS ONLY THE VORT MAX WHICH WILL BE PROVIDING
LIFT TO WORK ON THE 1.5 OR LESS PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. DRIER AIR STILL REMAINS MAINLY ACROSS THE E...SO WILL
ONCE AGAIN FOCUS MAINLY FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS AND POINTS W FOR
THE SHOWERS. NO THUNDER WITH THIS UPDATE...AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE STABLE THROUGHOUT. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF
BULLSEYES THAT IT WAS SHOWING IN PREVIOUS RUNS FOR THE MOST
PART...BUT THESE ARE LIKELY JUST A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUE.
OTHERWISE...MILD OVERNIGHT MINS WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
MAY NEED TO ALSO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE E AND SE COASTLINES FOR
FOG AND STRATUS THANKS TO CONTINUED E FLOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DWPTS WITHIN THE MOISTENED COLUMN IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS DAYS.

FRIDAY...
UPPER LVL VORT MAX SLIDES TO THE SE DURING THE MORNING...COMBINING
WITH LEFTOVER CUTOFF ENERGY ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA. WHILE THIS
WILL FORM A HANGING TROF WITH AXIS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...MID LVL RIDGING WILL THEN BE ABLE TO REGAIN
CONTROL INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW THE INVERTED
RIDGE TO BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE COLUMN DRIES FROM INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HAVE POPS DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A BIT MORE
TIME FOR THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE GIVEN MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND E FLOW CONTINUES.
IN FACT...LOOKS LIKE AN UPPER LVL BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LEAD
TO DECREASING H85 TEMPS. HAVE HELD HIGHS BACK...MAINLY IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70. E COASTAL REGIONS ARE LIKELY TO TAKE THE LONGEST TO
SEE ANY CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT

21/00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. THEN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...
MAKING FOR A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ONWARD.

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN USA. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH...WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN
LINGERING THIS TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. STILL AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THINKING 21/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...KEPT A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A
MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THIS IS WHERE MODELS START TO DIVERGE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
FRONT...BUT NEITHER IS AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE CANADIAN. WILL TAKE A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH THE TIMING FOR NOW.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY
SURPRISED IF THE ULTIMATE TIMING TURNS OUT TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR INTO THIS EVENING. BUT AS E-ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND SHOWERS
BUILD OVER THE S/W NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS...GREATER PROPENSITY FOR
A MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. UNSURE AS
TO OUTCOMES E/SE. ITS POSSIBLE THE REGION REMAINS VFR ALBEIT SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH EVENING
COOLING.

INTO THE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD...ANTICIPATING LOW-END
VFR CLOUDS MIXED IN WITH MVFR AND SHOWERS TO THE S/W. E-WINDS
CONTINUING WITH A LONG FETCH OFF THE WATERS. TRANSITIONING INTO
EVENING...WHILE SHOWERS CONCLUDE...A MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS
MAY BECOME SOCKED IN WITH LOW-CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG. LIKELY TO SEE
-DZ WITH FOG.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WILL HOLD LOW-END VFR FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. COULD SEE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY LOWER
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. E-FLOW PERSISTING THROUGHOUT AND
INCREASING TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...THUS LENDING TO
CONFIDENCE MORE SO OF MVFR-IFR LOW-CLOUDS OVER DENSE FOG.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO
LOWER INTO EVENING WITH INCREASING -SHRA CHANCES. MAY REMAIN
SOCKED IN AROUND MVFR THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ALL THE WAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRES WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
THEN MOVE E INTO FRI. A FEW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT MAINLY
THE WATERS S OF THE VINEYARD AND ACK INTO MID DAY UNTIL THE LOW
MOVES FURTHER E. THE WEAK LOW PRES WILL ALSO GENERATE A MODEST
SWELL...BUT IT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 4 FT INTO THE DAY ON
FRI. WINDS TOO MAY GUST TO ABOUT 15-20 KT AT TIMES OUT OF THE
E...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS COULD APPROACH 5
FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THOUGH. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211407
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1007 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THIS WEEKEND. A WARM-UP
IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

10 AM UPDATE...

ONE GIANT MESS. CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TRANSITIONING AS
AN OPEN WAVE AS IT WEAKENS. NOTED WELL BY THE PRIOR FORECASTER...
LINGERING ENERGY PROVIDING MODEST LIFT THROUGH WEAK DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION UPON AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS LENDING TO SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN A WEAK FLOW REGIME. THIS DESPITE
THE WARM-FRONT HELD UP TO THE W BY DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A
CUT-OFF HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SUSTAINED BY THE NEIGHBORING LOW SE
AND WELL OFFSHORE. AIR HAS TO SINK SOMEWHERE. THE WEAK ISENTROPIC
FLOW FROM THE SW IS ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE LOADING WITHIN THE MID-
LEVELS UP AGAINST THE DRIER AIR CLEARLY EVIDENT WITHIN MESORAP
H925-85 FIELDS AND 12Z CHATHAM/PORTLAND SOUNDINGS.

PRESENT ACTIVITY APPEARS FOCUSED ALONG THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF A
H85 PLUME PER MESORAP AND COLLOCATED WITH STRETCHED MID-LEVEL
ENERGY. FEEL THIS AREA OF ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS TOWARDS THE NE ERODING INTO THE DRIER AIR AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING AS THE OPEN- WAVE LOW AND MAIN CRUX OF ENERGY SHIFTS
SE ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO BUILD SW. AS TO THE WEAKENING
LOW...DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ANTICIPATING ATTENDANT
ENERGY THAT DEVELOPS OVER PA/NY THIS AFTERNOON TO SHIFT SE TOWARDS
BETTER THERMAL/INSTABILITY AXES.

HRRR- AND WRF-MODEL SOLUTIONS MAY HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA WITH REGARDS
TO TRENDS...BUT THE 21.06Z NAM DOES NOT LOOK TOO BAD WITH THE
ENERGY SHIFT TO THE SE. ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS SHOW A SIMILAR TREND AS
TO THE NAM...KEEPING ACTIVITY NE LIGHT BENEATH BUILDING INFLUENCE
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. WILL KEEP THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
ALONG A NE-SW LINE W OF THE WORCESTER HILLS WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER THE CT-VALLEY TO THE W. CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MOIST-ADIABATIC PROFILES AND DEEP-LAYER / OROGRAPHIC FORCING. HAVE
INSERTED ISOLATED THUNDER. FEEL ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL LIFT NE AND
LESSEN INTO THE REALM OF DRIER AIR. HAVE DONE THE BEST TO TIME OUT
POPS ACCORDINGLY ALONG WITH AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND
0.3 INCHES.

LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND WET WEATHER. WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AROUND
THE LOW-70S...QUITE UNSEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...
SLIGHTLY INCREASED THREAT FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS...BUT STILL MAINLY
ACROSS THE W THANKS TO SOME LEFTOVER SUBSIDENCE CLOSER TO THE
GRADUALLY REBOUNDING INVERTED RIDGE. THE REMNANT VORT MAX FROM AN
UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. JET ENERGY THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN IS WEAK AND WHAT
IS LEFT OF A SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE WASHED OUT FOR MOST
PART. THEREFORE...IT IS ONLY THE VORT MAX WHICH WILL BE PROVIDING
LIFT TO WORK ON THE 1.5 OR LESS PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. DRIER AIR STILL REMAINS MAINLY ACROSS THE E...SO WILL
ONCE AGAIN FOCUS MAINLY FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS AND POINTS W FOR
THE SHOWERS. NO THUNDER WITH THIS UPDATE...AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE STABLE THROUGHOUT. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF
BULLSEYES THAT IT WAS SHOWING IN PREVIOUS RUNS FOR THE MOST
PART...BUT THESE ARE LIKELY JUST A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUE.
OTHERWISE...MILD OVERNIGHT MINS WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
MAY NEED TO ALSO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE E AND SE COASTLINES FOR
FOG AND STRATUS THANKS TO CONTINUED E FLOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DWPTS WITHIN THE MOISTENED COLUMN IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS DAYS.

FRIDAY...
UPPER LVL VORT MAX SLIDES TO THE SE DURING THE MORNING...COMBINING
WITH LEFTOVER CUTOFF ENERGY ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA. WHILE THIS
WILL FORM A HANGING TROF WITH AXIS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...MID LVL RIDGING WILL THEN BE ABLE TO REGAIN
CONTROL INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW THE INVERTED
RIDGE TO BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE COLUMN DRIES FROM INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HAVE POPS DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A BIT MORE
TIME FOR THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE GIVEN MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND E FLOW CONTINUES.
IN FACT...LOOKS LIKE AN UPPER LVL BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LEAD
TO DECREASING H85 TEMPS. HAVE HELD HIGHS BACK...MAINLY IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70. E COASTAL REGIONS ARE LIKELY TO TAKE THE LONGEST TO
SEE ANY CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT

21/00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. THEN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...
MAKING FOR A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ONWARD.

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN USA. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH...WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN
LINGERING THIS TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. STILL AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THINKING 21/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...KEPT A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A
MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THIS IS WHERE MODELS START TO DIVERGE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
FRONT...BUT NEITHER IS AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE CANADIAN. WILL TAKE A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH THE TIMING FOR NOW.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY
SURPRISED IF THE ULTIMATE TIMING TURNS OUT TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAINLY VFR. EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR KACK...MOST OF THE RAIN REMAINS
TO THE W THROUGH THE DAY. THEN...BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
WRN MA/CT/NH OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOME LOW MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
E COAST.

FRI...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING GIVES WAY TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY TAKE MOST OF
THE DAY ALONG THE E COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS MOVE IN EARLY THIS MORNING
BRIEFLY...AND THEN RETURNS LATE THU NIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR WITH E
FLOW ASSISTED BY SEABREEZES EXPECTED.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. -RA CHANCES BEGIN TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH LOW-END VFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
THOUGH MAINLY TONIGHT...BUT REMAINS LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRES WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
THEN MOVE E INTO FRI. A FEW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT MAINLY
THE WATERS S OF THE VINEYARD AND ACK INTO MID DAY UNTIL THE LOW
MOVES FURTHER E. THE WEAK LOW PRES WILL ALSO GENERATE A MODEST
SWELL...BUT IT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 4 FT INTO THE DAY ON
FRI. WINDS TOO MAY GUST TO ABOUT 15-20 KT AT TIMES OUT OF THE
E...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS COULD APPROACH 5
FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THOUGH. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211407
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1007 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THIS WEEKEND. A WARM-UP
IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

10 AM UPDATE...

ONE GIANT MESS. CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TRANSITIONING AS
AN OPEN WAVE AS IT WEAKENS. NOTED WELL BY THE PRIOR FORECASTER...
LINGERING ENERGY PROVIDING MODEST LIFT THROUGH WEAK DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION UPON AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS LENDING TO SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN A WEAK FLOW REGIME. THIS DESPITE
THE WARM-FRONT HELD UP TO THE W BY DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A
CUT-OFF HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SUSTAINED BY THE NEIGHBORING LOW SE
AND WELL OFFSHORE. AIR HAS TO SINK SOMEWHERE. THE WEAK ISENTROPIC
FLOW FROM THE SW IS ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE LOADING WITHIN THE MID-
LEVELS UP AGAINST THE DRIER AIR CLEARLY EVIDENT WITHIN MESORAP
H925-85 FIELDS AND 12Z CHATHAM/PORTLAND SOUNDINGS.

PRESENT ACTIVITY APPEARS FOCUSED ALONG THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF A
H85 PLUME PER MESORAP AND COLLOCATED WITH STRETCHED MID-LEVEL
ENERGY. FEEL THIS AREA OF ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS TOWARDS THE NE ERODING INTO THE DRIER AIR AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING AS THE OPEN- WAVE LOW AND MAIN CRUX OF ENERGY SHIFTS
SE ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO BUILD SW. AS TO THE WEAKENING
LOW...DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ANTICIPATING ATTENDANT
ENERGY THAT DEVELOPS OVER PA/NY THIS AFTERNOON TO SHIFT SE TOWARDS
BETTER THERMAL/INSTABILITY AXES.

HRRR- AND WRF-MODEL SOLUTIONS MAY HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA WITH REGARDS
TO TRENDS...BUT THE 21.06Z NAM DOES NOT LOOK TOO BAD WITH THE
ENERGY SHIFT TO THE SE. ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS SHOW A SIMILAR TREND AS
TO THE NAM...KEEPING ACTIVITY NE LIGHT BENEATH BUILDING INFLUENCE
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. WILL KEEP THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
ALONG A NE-SW LINE W OF THE WORCESTER HILLS WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER THE CT-VALLEY TO THE W. CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MOIST-ADIABATIC PROFILES AND DEEP-LAYER / OROGRAPHIC FORCING. HAVE
INSERTED ISOLATED THUNDER. FEEL ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL LIFT NE AND
LESSEN INTO THE REALM OF DRIER AIR. HAVE DONE THE BEST TO TIME OUT
POPS ACCORDINGLY ALONG WITH AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND
0.3 INCHES.

LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND WET WEATHER. WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AROUND
THE LOW-70S...QUITE UNSEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...
SLIGHTLY INCREASED THREAT FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS...BUT STILL MAINLY
ACROSS THE W THANKS TO SOME LEFTOVER SUBSIDENCE CLOSER TO THE
GRADUALLY REBOUNDING INVERTED RIDGE. THE REMNANT VORT MAX FROM AN
UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. JET ENERGY THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN IS WEAK AND WHAT
IS LEFT OF A SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE WASHED OUT FOR MOST
PART. THEREFORE...IT IS ONLY THE VORT MAX WHICH WILL BE PROVIDING
LIFT TO WORK ON THE 1.5 OR LESS PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. DRIER AIR STILL REMAINS MAINLY ACROSS THE E...SO WILL
ONCE AGAIN FOCUS MAINLY FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS AND POINTS W FOR
THE SHOWERS. NO THUNDER WITH THIS UPDATE...AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE STABLE THROUGHOUT. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF
BULLSEYES THAT IT WAS SHOWING IN PREVIOUS RUNS FOR THE MOST
PART...BUT THESE ARE LIKELY JUST A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUE.
OTHERWISE...MILD OVERNIGHT MINS WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
MAY NEED TO ALSO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE E AND SE COASTLINES FOR
FOG AND STRATUS THANKS TO CONTINUED E FLOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DWPTS WITHIN THE MOISTENED COLUMN IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS DAYS.

FRIDAY...
UPPER LVL VORT MAX SLIDES TO THE SE DURING THE MORNING...COMBINING
WITH LEFTOVER CUTOFF ENERGY ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA. WHILE THIS
WILL FORM A HANGING TROF WITH AXIS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...MID LVL RIDGING WILL THEN BE ABLE TO REGAIN
CONTROL INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW THE INVERTED
RIDGE TO BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE COLUMN DRIES FROM INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HAVE POPS DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A BIT MORE
TIME FOR THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE GIVEN MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND E FLOW CONTINUES.
IN FACT...LOOKS LIKE AN UPPER LVL BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LEAD
TO DECREASING H85 TEMPS. HAVE HELD HIGHS BACK...MAINLY IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70. E COASTAL REGIONS ARE LIKELY TO TAKE THE LONGEST TO
SEE ANY CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT

21/00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. THEN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...
MAKING FOR A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ONWARD.

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN USA. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH...WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN
LINGERING THIS TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. STILL AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THINKING 21/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...KEPT A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A
MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THIS IS WHERE MODELS START TO DIVERGE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
FRONT...BUT NEITHER IS AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE CANADIAN. WILL TAKE A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH THE TIMING FOR NOW.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY
SURPRISED IF THE ULTIMATE TIMING TURNS OUT TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAINLY VFR. EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR KACK...MOST OF THE RAIN REMAINS
TO THE W THROUGH THE DAY. THEN...BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
WRN MA/CT/NH OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOME LOW MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
E COAST.

FRI...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING GIVES WAY TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY TAKE MOST OF
THE DAY ALONG THE E COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS MOVE IN EARLY THIS MORNING
BRIEFLY...AND THEN RETURNS LATE THU NIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR WITH E
FLOW ASSISTED BY SEABREEZES EXPECTED.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. -RA CHANCES BEGIN TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH LOW-END VFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
THOUGH MAINLY TONIGHT...BUT REMAINS LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRES WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
THEN MOVE E INTO FRI. A FEW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT MAINLY
THE WATERS S OF THE VINEYARD AND ACK INTO MID DAY UNTIL THE LOW
MOVES FURTHER E. THE WEAK LOW PRES WILL ALSO GENERATE A MODEST
SWELL...BUT IT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 4 FT INTO THE DAY ON
FRI. WINDS TOO MAY GUST TO ABOUT 15-20 KT AT TIMES OUT OF THE
E...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS COULD APPROACH 5
FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THOUGH. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211407
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1007 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THIS WEEKEND. A WARM-UP
IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

10 AM UPDATE...

ONE GIANT MESS. CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TRANSITIONING AS
AN OPEN WAVE AS IT WEAKENS. NOTED WELL BY THE PRIOR FORECASTER...
LINGERING ENERGY PROVIDING MODEST LIFT THROUGH WEAK DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION UPON AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS LENDING TO SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN A WEAK FLOW REGIME. THIS DESPITE
THE WARM-FRONT HELD UP TO THE W BY DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A
CUT-OFF HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SUSTAINED BY THE NEIGHBORING LOW SE
AND WELL OFFSHORE. AIR HAS TO SINK SOMEWHERE. THE WEAK ISENTROPIC
FLOW FROM THE SW IS ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE LOADING WITHIN THE MID-
LEVELS UP AGAINST THE DRIER AIR CLEARLY EVIDENT WITHIN MESORAP
H925-85 FIELDS AND 12Z CHATHAM/PORTLAND SOUNDINGS.

PRESENT ACTIVITY APPEARS FOCUSED ALONG THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF A
H85 PLUME PER MESORAP AND COLLOCATED WITH STRETCHED MID-LEVEL
ENERGY. FEEL THIS AREA OF ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS TOWARDS THE NE ERODING INTO THE DRIER AIR AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING AS THE OPEN- WAVE LOW AND MAIN CRUX OF ENERGY SHIFTS
SE ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO BUILD SW. AS TO THE WEAKENING
LOW...DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ANTICIPATING ATTENDANT
ENERGY THAT DEVELOPS OVER PA/NY THIS AFTERNOON TO SHIFT SE TOWARDS
BETTER THERMAL/INSTABILITY AXES.

HRRR- AND WRF-MODEL SOLUTIONS MAY HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA WITH REGARDS
TO TRENDS...BUT THE 21.06Z NAM DOES NOT LOOK TOO BAD WITH THE
ENERGY SHIFT TO THE SE. ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS SHOW A SIMILAR TREND AS
TO THE NAM...KEEPING ACTIVITY NE LIGHT BENEATH BUILDING INFLUENCE
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. WILL KEEP THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
ALONG A NE-SW LINE W OF THE WORCESTER HILLS WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER THE CT-VALLEY TO THE W. CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MOIST-ADIABATIC PROFILES AND DEEP-LAYER / OROGRAPHIC FORCING. HAVE
INSERTED ISOLATED THUNDER. FEEL ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL LIFT NE AND
LESSEN INTO THE REALM OF DRIER AIR. HAVE DONE THE BEST TO TIME OUT
POPS ACCORDINGLY ALONG WITH AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND
0.3 INCHES.

LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND WET WEATHER. WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AROUND
THE LOW-70S...QUITE UNSEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...
SLIGHTLY INCREASED THREAT FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS...BUT STILL MAINLY
ACROSS THE W THANKS TO SOME LEFTOVER SUBSIDENCE CLOSER TO THE
GRADUALLY REBOUNDING INVERTED RIDGE. THE REMNANT VORT MAX FROM AN
UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. JET ENERGY THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN IS WEAK AND WHAT
IS LEFT OF A SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE WASHED OUT FOR MOST
PART. THEREFORE...IT IS ONLY THE VORT MAX WHICH WILL BE PROVIDING
LIFT TO WORK ON THE 1.5 OR LESS PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. DRIER AIR STILL REMAINS MAINLY ACROSS THE E...SO WILL
ONCE AGAIN FOCUS MAINLY FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS AND POINTS W FOR
THE SHOWERS. NO THUNDER WITH THIS UPDATE...AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE STABLE THROUGHOUT. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF
BULLSEYES THAT IT WAS SHOWING IN PREVIOUS RUNS FOR THE MOST
PART...BUT THESE ARE LIKELY JUST A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUE.
OTHERWISE...MILD OVERNIGHT MINS WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
MAY NEED TO ALSO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE E AND SE COASTLINES FOR
FOG AND STRATUS THANKS TO CONTINUED E FLOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DWPTS WITHIN THE MOISTENED COLUMN IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS DAYS.

FRIDAY...
UPPER LVL VORT MAX SLIDES TO THE SE DURING THE MORNING...COMBINING
WITH LEFTOVER CUTOFF ENERGY ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA. WHILE THIS
WILL FORM A HANGING TROF WITH AXIS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...MID LVL RIDGING WILL THEN BE ABLE TO REGAIN
CONTROL INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW THE INVERTED
RIDGE TO BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE COLUMN DRIES FROM INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HAVE POPS DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A BIT MORE
TIME FOR THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE GIVEN MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND E FLOW CONTINUES.
IN FACT...LOOKS LIKE AN UPPER LVL BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LEAD
TO DECREASING H85 TEMPS. HAVE HELD HIGHS BACK...MAINLY IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70. E COASTAL REGIONS ARE LIKELY TO TAKE THE LONGEST TO
SEE ANY CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT

21/00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. THEN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...
MAKING FOR A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ONWARD.

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN USA. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH...WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN
LINGERING THIS TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. STILL AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THINKING 21/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...KEPT A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A
MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THIS IS WHERE MODELS START TO DIVERGE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
FRONT...BUT NEITHER IS AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE CANADIAN. WILL TAKE A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH THE TIMING FOR NOW.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY
SURPRISED IF THE ULTIMATE TIMING TURNS OUT TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAINLY VFR. EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR KACK...MOST OF THE RAIN REMAINS
TO THE W THROUGH THE DAY. THEN...BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
WRN MA/CT/NH OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOME LOW MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
E COAST.

FRI...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING GIVES WAY TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY TAKE MOST OF
THE DAY ALONG THE E COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS MOVE IN EARLY THIS MORNING
BRIEFLY...AND THEN RETURNS LATE THU NIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR WITH E
FLOW ASSISTED BY SEABREEZES EXPECTED.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. -RA CHANCES BEGIN TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH LOW-END VFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
THOUGH MAINLY TONIGHT...BUT REMAINS LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRES WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
THEN MOVE E INTO FRI. A FEW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT MAINLY
THE WATERS S OF THE VINEYARD AND ACK INTO MID DAY UNTIL THE LOW
MOVES FURTHER E. THE WEAK LOW PRES WILL ALSO GENERATE A MODEST
SWELL...BUT IT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 4 FT INTO THE DAY ON
FRI. WINDS TOO MAY GUST TO ABOUT 15-20 KT AT TIMES OUT OF THE
E...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS COULD APPROACH 5
FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THOUGH. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211407
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1007 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THIS WEEKEND. A WARM-UP
IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

10 AM UPDATE...

ONE GIANT MESS. CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TRANSITIONING AS
AN OPEN WAVE AS IT WEAKENS. NOTED WELL BY THE PRIOR FORECASTER...
LINGERING ENERGY PROVIDING MODEST LIFT THROUGH WEAK DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION UPON AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS LENDING TO SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN A WEAK FLOW REGIME. THIS DESPITE
THE WARM-FRONT HELD UP TO THE W BY DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A
CUT-OFF HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SUSTAINED BY THE NEIGHBORING LOW SE
AND WELL OFFSHORE. AIR HAS TO SINK SOMEWHERE. THE WEAK ISENTROPIC
FLOW FROM THE SW IS ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE LOADING WITHIN THE MID-
LEVELS UP AGAINST THE DRIER AIR CLEARLY EVIDENT WITHIN MESORAP
H925-85 FIELDS AND 12Z CHATHAM/PORTLAND SOUNDINGS.

PRESENT ACTIVITY APPEARS FOCUSED ALONG THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF A
H85 PLUME PER MESORAP AND COLLOCATED WITH STRETCHED MID-LEVEL
ENERGY. FEEL THIS AREA OF ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS TOWARDS THE NE ERODING INTO THE DRIER AIR AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING AS THE OPEN- WAVE LOW AND MAIN CRUX OF ENERGY SHIFTS
SE ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO BUILD SW. AS TO THE WEAKENING
LOW...DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ANTICIPATING ATTENDANT
ENERGY THAT DEVELOPS OVER PA/NY THIS AFTERNOON TO SHIFT SE TOWARDS
BETTER THERMAL/INSTABILITY AXES.

HRRR- AND WRF-MODEL SOLUTIONS MAY HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA WITH REGARDS
TO TRENDS...BUT THE 21.06Z NAM DOES NOT LOOK TOO BAD WITH THE
ENERGY SHIFT TO THE SE. ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS SHOW A SIMILAR TREND AS
TO THE NAM...KEEPING ACTIVITY NE LIGHT BENEATH BUILDING INFLUENCE
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. WILL KEEP THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
ALONG A NE-SW LINE W OF THE WORCESTER HILLS WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER THE CT-VALLEY TO THE W. CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MOIST-ADIABATIC PROFILES AND DEEP-LAYER / OROGRAPHIC FORCING. HAVE
INSERTED ISOLATED THUNDER. FEEL ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL LIFT NE AND
LESSEN INTO THE REALM OF DRIER AIR. HAVE DONE THE BEST TO TIME OUT
POPS ACCORDINGLY ALONG WITH AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND
0.3 INCHES.

LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND WET WEATHER. WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AROUND
THE LOW-70S...QUITE UNSEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...
SLIGHTLY INCREASED THREAT FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS...BUT STILL MAINLY
ACROSS THE W THANKS TO SOME LEFTOVER SUBSIDENCE CLOSER TO THE
GRADUALLY REBOUNDING INVERTED RIDGE. THE REMNANT VORT MAX FROM AN
UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. JET ENERGY THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN IS WEAK AND WHAT
IS LEFT OF A SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE WASHED OUT FOR MOST
PART. THEREFORE...IT IS ONLY THE VORT MAX WHICH WILL BE PROVIDING
LIFT TO WORK ON THE 1.5 OR LESS PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. DRIER AIR STILL REMAINS MAINLY ACROSS THE E...SO WILL
ONCE AGAIN FOCUS MAINLY FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS AND POINTS W FOR
THE SHOWERS. NO THUNDER WITH THIS UPDATE...AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE STABLE THROUGHOUT. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF
BULLSEYES THAT IT WAS SHOWING IN PREVIOUS RUNS FOR THE MOST
PART...BUT THESE ARE LIKELY JUST A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUE.
OTHERWISE...MILD OVERNIGHT MINS WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
MAY NEED TO ALSO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE E AND SE COASTLINES FOR
FOG AND STRATUS THANKS TO CONTINUED E FLOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DWPTS WITHIN THE MOISTENED COLUMN IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS DAYS.

FRIDAY...
UPPER LVL VORT MAX SLIDES TO THE SE DURING THE MORNING...COMBINING
WITH LEFTOVER CUTOFF ENERGY ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA. WHILE THIS
WILL FORM A HANGING TROF WITH AXIS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...MID LVL RIDGING WILL THEN BE ABLE TO REGAIN
CONTROL INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW THE INVERTED
RIDGE TO BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE COLUMN DRIES FROM INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HAVE POPS DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A BIT MORE
TIME FOR THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE GIVEN MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND E FLOW CONTINUES.
IN FACT...LOOKS LIKE AN UPPER LVL BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LEAD
TO DECREASING H85 TEMPS. HAVE HELD HIGHS BACK...MAINLY IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70. E COASTAL REGIONS ARE LIKELY TO TAKE THE LONGEST TO
SEE ANY CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT

21/00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. THEN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...
MAKING FOR A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ONWARD.

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN USA. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH...WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN
LINGERING THIS TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. STILL AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THINKING 21/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...KEPT A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A
MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THIS IS WHERE MODELS START TO DIVERGE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
FRONT...BUT NEITHER IS AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE CANADIAN. WILL TAKE A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH THE TIMING FOR NOW.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY
SURPRISED IF THE ULTIMATE TIMING TURNS OUT TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAINLY VFR. EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR KACK...MOST OF THE RAIN REMAINS
TO THE W THROUGH THE DAY. THEN...BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
WRN MA/CT/NH OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOME LOW MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
E COAST.

FRI...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING GIVES WAY TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY TAKE MOST OF
THE DAY ALONG THE E COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS MOVE IN EARLY THIS MORNING
BRIEFLY...AND THEN RETURNS LATE THU NIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR WITH E
FLOW ASSISTED BY SEABREEZES EXPECTED.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. -RA CHANCES BEGIN TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH LOW-END VFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
THOUGH MAINLY TONIGHT...BUT REMAINS LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRES WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
THEN MOVE E INTO FRI. A FEW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT MAINLY
THE WATERS S OF THE VINEYARD AND ACK INTO MID DAY UNTIL THE LOW
MOVES FURTHER E. THE WEAK LOW PRES WILL ALSO GENERATE A MODEST
SWELL...BUT IT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 4 FT INTO THE DAY ON
FRI. WINDS TOO MAY GUST TO ABOUT 15-20 KT AT TIMES OUT OF THE
E...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS COULD APPROACH 5
FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THOUGH. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KGYX 211356
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
956 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ANCHOR OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950 AM...HAVE UPDATED POPS A BIT TO REFLECT FIRST WAVE OF SHRA IN
SW ZONE MOVING THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND THRU MIDDAY...WITH
LOWER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL A CHANCE. ALSO...WILL SEE
INCR CHANCES FOR A FEW SHRA IN THE NERN ZONES AS LOW LVL MOISTURE
POOLING ENCOUNTERS WEAK SFC BOUNDARY TO THE NE. MAX TEMPS A LITTLE
PROBLEMATIC TODAY AS WELL...WITH HIGHEST TEMPS IN THE ERN ZONES
WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE SUN THIS MORNING AT LEAST...AND LOWEST
TEMPS IN INTERIOR SRN NH...WHERE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHRA WILL
KEEP TEMPS DOWN...BUT ANYWHERE THAT SEE A SIGNIFICANT BREAK OF SUN
COULD INCREASE MAXES BY ABOUT 5 F.

PREV DISC...
RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE BLOCK IN PLACE AND HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA WILL LIMIT THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA. I`VE CONFINED THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA FOR TODAY. THE
CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE 70S...WITH SOME UPPER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE.
OTHERWISE...ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATES THE WEATHER ACROSS MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. THE BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL
BE MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD BE MOVING UP
THE EAST COAST MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
AT THAT TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH FRI...EXCEPT FOR VLY FOG AT
KHIE/KLEB...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE AT
KCON/KAUG.

LONG TERM...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MORNING FOG IN
FAVORED LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 211356
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
956 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ANCHOR OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950 AM...HAVE UPDATED POPS A BIT TO REFLECT FIRST WAVE OF SHRA IN
SW ZONE MOVING THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND THRU MIDDAY...WITH
LOWER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL A CHANCE. ALSO...WILL SEE
INCR CHANCES FOR A FEW SHRA IN THE NERN ZONES AS LOW LVL MOISTURE
POOLING ENCOUNTERS WEAK SFC BOUNDARY TO THE NE. MAX TEMPS A LITTLE
PROBLEMATIC TODAY AS WELL...WITH HIGHEST TEMPS IN THE ERN ZONES
WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE SUN THIS MORNING AT LEAST...AND LOWEST
TEMPS IN INTERIOR SRN NH...WHERE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHRA WILL
KEEP TEMPS DOWN...BUT ANYWHERE THAT SEE A SIGNIFICANT BREAK OF SUN
COULD INCREASE MAXES BY ABOUT 5 F.

PREV DISC...
RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE BLOCK IN PLACE AND HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA WILL LIMIT THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA. I`VE CONFINED THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA FOR TODAY. THE
CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE 70S...WITH SOME UPPER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE.
OTHERWISE...ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATES THE WEATHER ACROSS MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. THE BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL
BE MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD BE MOVING UP
THE EAST COAST MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
AT THAT TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH FRI...EXCEPT FOR VLY FOG AT
KHIE/KLEB...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE AT
KCON/KAUG.

LONG TERM...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MORNING FOG IN
FAVORED LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 211356
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
956 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ANCHOR OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950 AM...HAVE UPDATED POPS A BIT TO REFLECT FIRST WAVE OF SHRA IN
SW ZONE MOVING THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND THRU MIDDAY...WITH
LOWER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL A CHANCE. ALSO...WILL SEE
INCR CHANCES FOR A FEW SHRA IN THE NERN ZONES AS LOW LVL MOISTURE
POOLING ENCOUNTERS WEAK SFC BOUNDARY TO THE NE. MAX TEMPS A LITTLE
PROBLEMATIC TODAY AS WELL...WITH HIGHEST TEMPS IN THE ERN ZONES
WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE SUN THIS MORNING AT LEAST...AND LOWEST
TEMPS IN INTERIOR SRN NH...WHERE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHRA WILL
KEEP TEMPS DOWN...BUT ANYWHERE THAT SEE A SIGNIFICANT BREAK OF SUN
COULD INCREASE MAXES BY ABOUT 5 F.

PREV DISC...
RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE BLOCK IN PLACE AND HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA WILL LIMIT THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA. I`VE CONFINED THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA FOR TODAY. THE
CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE 70S...WITH SOME UPPER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE.
OTHERWISE...ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATES THE WEATHER ACROSS MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. THE BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL
BE MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD BE MOVING UP
THE EAST COAST MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
AT THAT TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH FRI...EXCEPT FOR VLY FOG AT
KHIE/KLEB...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE AT
KCON/KAUG.

LONG TERM...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MORNING FOG IN
FAVORED LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 211356
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
956 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ANCHOR OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950 AM...HAVE UPDATED POPS A BIT TO REFLECT FIRST WAVE OF SHRA IN
SW ZONE MOVING THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND THRU MIDDAY...WITH
LOWER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL A CHANCE. ALSO...WILL SEE
INCR CHANCES FOR A FEW SHRA IN THE NERN ZONES AS LOW LVL MOISTURE
POOLING ENCOUNTERS WEAK SFC BOUNDARY TO THE NE. MAX TEMPS A LITTLE
PROBLEMATIC TODAY AS WELL...WITH HIGHEST TEMPS IN THE ERN ZONES
WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE SUN THIS MORNING AT LEAST...AND LOWEST
TEMPS IN INTERIOR SRN NH...WHERE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHRA WILL
KEEP TEMPS DOWN...BUT ANYWHERE THAT SEE A SIGNIFICANT BREAK OF SUN
COULD INCREASE MAXES BY ABOUT 5 F.

PREV DISC...
RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE BLOCK IN PLACE AND HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA WILL LIMIT THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA. I`VE CONFINED THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA FOR TODAY. THE
CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE 70S...WITH SOME UPPER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE.
OTHERWISE...ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATES THE WEATHER ACROSS MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. THE BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL
BE MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD BE MOVING UP
THE EAST COAST MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
AT THAT TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH FRI...EXCEPT FOR VLY FOG AT
KHIE/KLEB...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE AT
KCON/KAUG.

LONG TERM...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MORNING FOG IN
FAVORED LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




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