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000
FXUS61 KGYX 012238
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
638 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST TONIGHT AND LIFTS NORTH
TOMORROW MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
TONIGHT AND WILL STALL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY.
SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE STRADDLE THE SOUTHERN YORK COUNTY
COASTLINE. THIS PRECIP WILL SLOWLY HEAD OUT THROUGH OUR COASTAL
WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

HOWEVER...AS WINDS BACK WITH TIME ALOFT...SOME OF THE PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER TIME. THE GFS AND SOMEWHAT THE LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT AGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF ANY PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO SW MAINE BY SATURDAY...WITH A COUPLE OTHER MODELS
IN A DRIER CAMP. WILL COMPROMISE WITH THE TIMING OF ANY INCREASED
POPS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

PREV DISC...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NOW
DRIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF NH AND THESE WILL BE
TYPICAL OF THE CONVECTION WE WILL SEE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER
NH AND SW MAINE IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS A WARM FRONT NEARS FROM
THE SOUTH. EXPECT OTHER SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NH AND WESTERN
MAINE MOUNTAINS WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS UPPER TROUGH NEARS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
DARK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. EXPECT SPOTS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND IN
SPOTS THAT GET A HEAVY SHOWER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUT WILL BE
NEAR ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE
COAST TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. ELSEWHERE...OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND CONTINUED SPOKES OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. INLAND AREAS WILL
HAVE LESS OF A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BUT INCREASED PWATS WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN EVERYWHERE. HIGHS REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH THE WARMEST READINGS INLAND. SATURDAY NIGHT SKIES
REMAIN CLOUDY BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY DIES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY REMAINING SHRA FROM WEAK COASTAL WAVE WILL QUICKLY END SUN
MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN...WITH MEAN TROFFING TO OUR
W. THIS COMBINATION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE
BROAD SW FLOW THRU THE COLUMN WILL PROMOTE WARM TEMPS...WITH
MODERATE HUMIDITY. AS A RESULT EACH AFTERNOON...PEAK HEATING
SHOULD YIELD SCT TSTMS. THESE WILL MAINLY BE TIED TO THE TERRAIN
HEATING IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING.

TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION WED OR THU...WITH A MORE
CONCENTRATED THREAT FOR CONVECTION. FORCING WILL BE STRONGER...SO
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FRONTAL TIMING ALONG WITH ADVECTION OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM THE W. IF WE CAN GET SOME NEAR 7 C/KM
LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THERE WOULD BE A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT NEARS FROM THE SOUTH. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE AT LEAST BRIEF
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN FOG WITH MOUNTAIN TERMINALS AND
ANYWHERE RECEIVING RAIN THIS EVENING THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS RETURNING THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
LATE IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED. BROAD SW FLOW WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSTMS MOST
DAYS...WITH LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 012238
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
638 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST TONIGHT AND LIFTS NORTH
TOMORROW MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
TONIGHT AND WILL STALL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY.
SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE STRADDLE THE SOUTHERN YORK COUNTY
COASTLINE. THIS PRECIP WILL SLOWLY HEAD OUT THROUGH OUR COASTAL
WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

HOWEVER...AS WINDS BACK WITH TIME ALOFT...SOME OF THE PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER TIME. THE GFS AND SOMEWHAT THE LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT AGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF ANY PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO SW MAINE BY SATURDAY...WITH A COUPLE OTHER MODELS
IN A DRIER CAMP. WILL COMPROMISE WITH THE TIMING OF ANY INCREASED
POPS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

PREV DISC...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NOW
DRIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF NH AND THESE WILL BE
TYPICAL OF THE CONVECTION WE WILL SEE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER
NH AND SW MAINE IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS A WARM FRONT NEARS FROM
THE SOUTH. EXPECT OTHER SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NH AND WESTERN
MAINE MOUNTAINS WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS UPPER TROUGH NEARS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
DARK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. EXPECT SPOTS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND IN
SPOTS THAT GET A HEAVY SHOWER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUT WILL BE
NEAR ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE
COAST TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. ELSEWHERE...OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND CONTINUED SPOKES OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. INLAND AREAS WILL
HAVE LESS OF A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BUT INCREASED PWATS WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN EVERYWHERE. HIGHS REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH THE WARMEST READINGS INLAND. SATURDAY NIGHT SKIES
REMAIN CLOUDY BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY DIES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY REMAINING SHRA FROM WEAK COASTAL WAVE WILL QUICKLY END SUN
MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN...WITH MEAN TROFFING TO OUR
W. THIS COMBINATION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE
BROAD SW FLOW THRU THE COLUMN WILL PROMOTE WARM TEMPS...WITH
MODERATE HUMIDITY. AS A RESULT EACH AFTERNOON...PEAK HEATING
SHOULD YIELD SCT TSTMS. THESE WILL MAINLY BE TIED TO THE TERRAIN
HEATING IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING.

TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION WED OR THU...WITH A MORE
CONCENTRATED THREAT FOR CONVECTION. FORCING WILL BE STRONGER...SO
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FRONTAL TIMING ALONG WITH ADVECTION OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM THE W. IF WE CAN GET SOME NEAR 7 C/KM
LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THERE WOULD BE A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT NEARS FROM THE SOUTH. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE AT LEAST BRIEF
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN FOG WITH MOUNTAIN TERMINALS AND
ANYWHERE RECEIVING RAIN THIS EVENING THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS RETURNING THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
LATE IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED. BROAD SW FLOW WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSTMS MOST
DAYS...WITH LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



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000
FXUS61 KBOX 012021
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
421 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVING ALONG A STALLED
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO AT LEAST SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS WITH US
MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING OFF SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND AIDED BY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 7 PM WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. SHEAR IS GENERALLY 30 KT OR LESS AND MAIN CONCERN IS
POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLASH FLOODING WHERE ANY TRAINING SHOULD SET UP.
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED SOME TONIGHT. HAVE GONE
WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
***A PERIOD OF STEADY AND POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY ON SATURDAY
   FOR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS RATHER IMPRESSIVE TROPICAL CONNECTION ALONG
THE EASTERN SEA BOARD AHEAD OF OH VALLEY TROF. MODELS ALL DEPICT IN
SOME WAY SHAPE OR FORM A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE. PWATS INCREASE FROM A LITTLE OVER
1 INCH THIS AFTERNOON TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NOTED THAT THE 12Z ECMWF WAS
ESPECIALLY BULLISH WITH THE RAINFALL PROJECTION AND ALSO STRONGER
WITH THE SATURDAY LOW PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE NAM
SEEMED TO BE MORE INCLINED TO PUT AS MUCH OR MORE ENERGY IN A
SECOND WAVE LATER IN THE WEEKEND. THE SREF OUTPUT DEPICTS LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INCH OR MORE RAIN SATURDAY BUT THE
SREF IS MADE UP OF A NUMBER OF NAM MEMBERS. IN SPITE OF SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES...SEE ENOUGH INDICATORS TO GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS SE MA AND SOUTHERN RI AND LIKELY POPS AS FAR NORTH AND WEST
AS NEWBURYPORT TO THE WORCESTER AREA TO NW HARTFORD COUNTY.
INDICATED STRATIFORM RAIN IN THE LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POP AREAS
AND SHOWERY TO THE NW. THE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY...INCREASE IN
PWATS...DEEP SYNOPTIC SCALE SW FLOW WITH A TROPICAL ORIGIN AND
MODEL CONSENSUS LEADS TO BELIEVE A RELATIVELY HIGH CHANCE OF 1 TO
1.5 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA AND TAPERING OFF
TO QUITE A BIT LESS TO THE NW.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF EMBEDDED AND ELEVATED THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MA AND SOUTHERN RI WHERE K INDICES MAY REACH TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 30.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE NOT LIKELY TO REBOUND VERY HIGH DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN IN MUCH OF THE AREA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES LIKELY
IN THE KEENE AREA. MOST LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT RISE OUT OF
THE LOWER OR MID 70S. SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE TAPERED POPS DOWN AS
SURFACE WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF AREA. DEPENDING UPON STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...MAY SEE BOUNDARY SHIFT A LITTLE
FURTHER SE. HAVE POPS TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE MOST AREAS EXCEPT
KEPT THEM LIKELY ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ANTICIPATE FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE AND
THE AIR MASS APPROACHES CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE STATUS OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. FOG MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE RAIN...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SE SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND TO
SOME DEGREE UPON THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WAVE AND WHETHER IT
IS ABLE TO DRAW ANY DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WOULD
EXPECT CLOUDS TO PREVENT MUCH OF A DIURNAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES
OVER THE SE HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN USA. ONE SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM THE EASTERN TROUGH SUNDAY
WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM CANADA. THE TROUGH THEN
MIGRATES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN...BUT WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY... COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED OFF THE SOUTH COAST.  MEANWHILE
THE UPPER SOUTHWEST JET REMAINS TO OUR WEST WITH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT UPPER
VENTING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...RESULTING
IN ONE OR MORE WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT AND PRODUCING AREAS OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT MOVE UP ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR LIFT AND RESULTING PRECIP WOULD BE
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES WITH 2 INCH VALUES JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST...SO
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

WITH AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE PATTERN AND THE UPPER JET RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION ALSO OVERHEAD...WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE EJECTS...AND WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C/KM AND
TOTALS AROUND 48 TO OUR NORTHWEST...THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER NY AND VT. THESE COULD THEN
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS...BUT THE LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT HERE SHOULD CAUSE THAT CONVECTION TO DIMINISH. MODEL QPF
FIELDS ALSO INDICATE MEASUREABLE PCPN MOSTLY OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA BUT
POTENTIALLY CLIPPING OUR NORTHWEST.

TEMPS ALOFT AROUND 11C WOULD SUPPORT MAX SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 80F.
CLOUDS IN THE EAST SHOULD KEEP TEMPS COOLER...WHILE INTERIOR
SECTIONS MAY SEE ENOUGH SUN TO REALIZE THE WARMER MAX TEMPS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY... INSTABILITY LINGERS NORTH AND WEST...AND ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES.  ON TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS EACH DAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS SHOULD BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. LINGERING INSTABILITY THURSDAY WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH STILL IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD...BUT A DRIER AIRMASS.  WILL
INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST PLACES AND CHANCE POPS MERRIMACK
VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN PLACE FRIDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

THIS EVENING...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT LOCALLY IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN VICINITY OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
ALONG AND SE OF A LWM-ORH-BDL LINE WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS DEVELOPING. GENERALLY VFR NW OF THIS LINE. AREAS OF IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SE MA AND SOUTHERN HALF OF RI LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANTICIPATING VFR CONDITIONS
NW HALF OF AREA AND GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS SE HALF. AREAS
OF FOG AND SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING SE HALF OF AREA.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. MOST TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE EARLY EVENING SHOULD OCCUR NW
OF THE AIRFIELD BUT A LOW PROBABILITY REMAINS OF ONE MAKING A
CLOSE PASS TO THE AIR FIELD. SEA BREEZE FROM SE WILL SHIFT TO BE
FROM SW AFTER ABOUT 00Z. ANY TSTMS PASSING NW OF THE AIR FIELD
COULD CAUSE A TEMPORARY OUTFLOW FROM THE WEST. FOR SATURDAY...NOW
THINKING THAT THE RAIN SHIELD WILL COVER BOS AND PROBABLY CAUSE
CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY FOR A
TIME IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING...MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A TSTM COMPLEX APPROACHING LITCHFIELD COUNTY AT
20Z MAY CAUSE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER CONDITIONS SOMETIME BETWEEN
21Z AND 23Z. FOR SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN RAIN SHIELD
REACHING BDL AND RESULTING IN PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS IN FOG.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SOUTHEAST WITH IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
AND ISLANDS.  MAINLY VFR NORTHWEST WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MVFR IN
AFTERNOON TSTMS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA ADVISORY EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT THEN LOWER TO 3 MILES OR LESS IN RAIN AND
FOG DURING SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY LOWERING TO A MILE OR LESS IN FOG
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...FRONT REMAINS STALLED EITHER OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS. AREAS OF POOR VISIBLITY IN RAIN AND FOG AS
DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS MONDAY BECOMING SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY. AREAS OF POOR VISIBILITY IN FOG EACH MORNING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH HIGHEST CHANCE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 012021
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
421 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVING ALONG A STALLED
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO AT LEAST SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS WITH US
MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING OFF SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND AIDED BY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 7 PM WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. SHEAR IS GENERALLY 30 KT OR LESS AND MAIN CONCERN IS
POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLASH FLOODING WHERE ANY TRAINING SHOULD SET UP.
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED SOME TONIGHT. HAVE GONE
WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
***A PERIOD OF STEADY AND POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY ON SATURDAY
   FOR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS RATHER IMPRESSIVE TROPICAL CONNECTION ALONG
THE EASTERN SEA BOARD AHEAD OF OH VALLEY TROF. MODELS ALL DEPICT IN
SOME WAY SHAPE OR FORM A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE. PWATS INCREASE FROM A LITTLE OVER
1 INCH THIS AFTERNOON TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NOTED THAT THE 12Z ECMWF WAS
ESPECIALLY BULLISH WITH THE RAINFALL PROJECTION AND ALSO STRONGER
WITH THE SATURDAY LOW PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE NAM
SEEMED TO BE MORE INCLINED TO PUT AS MUCH OR MORE ENERGY IN A
SECOND WAVE LATER IN THE WEEKEND. THE SREF OUTPUT DEPICTS LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INCH OR MORE RAIN SATURDAY BUT THE
SREF IS MADE UP OF A NUMBER OF NAM MEMBERS. IN SPITE OF SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES...SEE ENOUGH INDICATORS TO GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS SE MA AND SOUTHERN RI AND LIKELY POPS AS FAR NORTH AND WEST
AS NEWBURYPORT TO THE WORCESTER AREA TO NW HARTFORD COUNTY.
INDICATED STRATIFORM RAIN IN THE LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POP AREAS
AND SHOWERY TO THE NW. THE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY...INCREASE IN
PWATS...DEEP SYNOPTIC SCALE SW FLOW WITH A TROPICAL ORIGIN AND
MODEL CONSENSUS LEADS TO BELIEVE A RELATIVELY HIGH CHANCE OF 1 TO
1.5 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA AND TAPERING OFF
TO QUITE A BIT LESS TO THE NW.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF EMBEDDED AND ELEVATED THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MA AND SOUTHERN RI WHERE K INDICES MAY REACH TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 30.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE NOT LIKELY TO REBOUND VERY HIGH DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN IN MUCH OF THE AREA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES LIKELY
IN THE KEENE AREA. MOST LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT RISE OUT OF
THE LOWER OR MID 70S. SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE TAPERED POPS DOWN AS
SURFACE WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF AREA. DEPENDING UPON STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...MAY SEE BOUNDARY SHIFT A LITTLE
FURTHER SE. HAVE POPS TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE MOST AREAS EXCEPT
KEPT THEM LIKELY ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ANTICIPATE FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE AND
THE AIR MASS APPROACHES CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE STATUS OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. FOG MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE RAIN...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SE SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND TO
SOME DEGREE UPON THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WAVE AND WHETHER IT
IS ABLE TO DRAW ANY DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WOULD
EXPECT CLOUDS TO PREVENT MUCH OF A DIURNAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES
OVER THE SE HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN USA. ONE SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM THE EASTERN TROUGH SUNDAY
WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM CANADA. THE TROUGH THEN
MIGRATES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN...BUT WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY... COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED OFF THE SOUTH COAST.  MEANWHILE
THE UPPER SOUTHWEST JET REMAINS TO OUR WEST WITH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT UPPER
VENTING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...RESULTING
IN ONE OR MORE WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT AND PRODUCING AREAS OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT MOVE UP ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR LIFT AND RESULTING PRECIP WOULD BE
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES WITH 2 INCH VALUES JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST...SO
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

WITH AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE PATTERN AND THE UPPER JET RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION ALSO OVERHEAD...WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE EJECTS...AND WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C/KM AND
TOTALS AROUND 48 TO OUR NORTHWEST...THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER NY AND VT. THESE COULD THEN
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS...BUT THE LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT HERE SHOULD CAUSE THAT CONVECTION TO DIMINISH. MODEL QPF
FIELDS ALSO INDICATE MEASUREABLE PCPN MOSTLY OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA BUT
POTENTIALLY CLIPPING OUR NORTHWEST.

TEMPS ALOFT AROUND 11C WOULD SUPPORT MAX SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 80F.
CLOUDS IN THE EAST SHOULD KEEP TEMPS COOLER...WHILE INTERIOR
SECTIONS MAY SEE ENOUGH SUN TO REALIZE THE WARMER MAX TEMPS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY... INSTABILITY LINGERS NORTH AND WEST...AND ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES.  ON TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS EACH DAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS SHOULD BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. LINGERING INSTABILITY THURSDAY WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH STILL IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD...BUT A DRIER AIRMASS.  WILL
INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST PLACES AND CHANCE POPS MERRIMACK
VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN PLACE FRIDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

THIS EVENING...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT LOCALLY IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN VICINITY OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
ALONG AND SE OF A LWM-ORH-BDL LINE WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS DEVELOPING. GENERALLY VFR NW OF THIS LINE. AREAS OF IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SE MA AND SOUTHERN HALF OF RI LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANTICIPATING VFR CONDITIONS
NW HALF OF AREA AND GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS SE HALF. AREAS
OF FOG AND SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING SE HALF OF AREA.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. MOST TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE EARLY EVENING SHOULD OCCUR NW
OF THE AIRFIELD BUT A LOW PROBABILITY REMAINS OF ONE MAKING A
CLOSE PASS TO THE AIR FIELD. SEA BREEZE FROM SE WILL SHIFT TO BE
FROM SW AFTER ABOUT 00Z. ANY TSTMS PASSING NW OF THE AIR FIELD
COULD CAUSE A TEMPORARY OUTFLOW FROM THE WEST. FOR SATURDAY...NOW
THINKING THAT THE RAIN SHIELD WILL COVER BOS AND PROBABLY CAUSE
CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY FOR A
TIME IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING...MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A TSTM COMPLEX APPROACHING LITCHFIELD COUNTY AT
20Z MAY CAUSE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER CONDITIONS SOMETIME BETWEEN
21Z AND 23Z. FOR SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN RAIN SHIELD
REACHING BDL AND RESULTING IN PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS IN FOG.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SOUTHEAST WITH IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
AND ISLANDS.  MAINLY VFR NORTHWEST WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MVFR IN
AFTERNOON TSTMS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA ADVISORY EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT THEN LOWER TO 3 MILES OR LESS IN RAIN AND
FOG DURING SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY LOWERING TO A MILE OR LESS IN FOG
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...FRONT REMAINS STALLED EITHER OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS. AREAS OF POOR VISIBLITY IN RAIN AND FOG AS
DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS MONDAY BECOMING SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY. AREAS OF POOR VISIBILITY IN FOG EACH MORNING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH HIGHEST CHANCE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KBOX 011953
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
353 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG A STALLED FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN TO AT LEAST SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS WITH US MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A COUPLE OF
COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INTERIOR MORE OR LESS ALONG THE PATTERN
ADVERTIZED BY THE HRRR. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROF SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HELPING TO SET OFF THE SCATTERED
CONVECTION. WIND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW AND SO NOT TOO LIKELY TO
SEE SEVERE...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THE RISK
OF A HIGHLY LOCALIZED PULSE STORM. AREA OF GREATEST INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON ANTICIPATED TO BE BOUNDED BY AREA ALONG AND TO
RIGHT OF LWM-BED-IJD-HFD-BAF-ORE-AFN-MHT LINE. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS. WITNESSED DUAL POL RAFL RATE
UP TO 1.5 INCHES/HOUR WITH STORM THAT PASSED ACROSS HOLYOKE.

TEMPS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FROM MID MORNING UPDATE EXCEPT WHERE
LOCAL COOLING IN VICINITY OF CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ON SATURDAY FOR AT LEAST
  THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH MORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WORKING UP
ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST MAY ALLOW RAIN TO OVERSPREAD
SOUTHERN SECTIONS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
WORK NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN WEAK
BAROCLINICITY THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH THE
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF PRECIPITATION SHIELDS.  THIS CASE IS NO
EXCEPTION...AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE IN THE LAST
48 HOURS.  WE DO THINK THAT AT LEAST SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WILL SEE A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR.  PWATS WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  INSTABILITY IS VERY
LIMITED...SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.

ALL IN ALL...WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION/TIMING OF THE
RAIN SHIELD ON SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...WE DO THINK AT LEAST THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SEE A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WHICH
MAY BE HEAVY FOR A TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN USA. ONE SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM THE EASTERN TROUGH SUNDAY
WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM CANADA. THE TROUGH THEN
MIGRATES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN...BUT WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY... COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED OFF THE SOUTH COAST.  MEANWHILE
THE UPPER SOUTHWEST JET REMAINS TO OUR WEST WITH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT UPPER
VENTING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...RESULTING
IN ONE OR MORE WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT AND PRODUCING AREAS OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT MOVE UP ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR LIFT AND RESULTING PRECIP WOULD BE
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES WITH 2 INCH VALUES JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST...SO
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

WITH AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE PATTERN AND THE UPPER JET RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION ALSO OVERHEAD...WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE EJECTS...AND WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C/KM AND
TOTALS AROUND 48 TO OUR NORTHWEST...THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER NY AND VT. THESE COULD THEN
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS...BUT THE LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT HERE SHOULD CAUSE THAT CONVECTION TO DIMINISH. MODEL QPF
FIELDS ALSO INDICATE MEASUREABLE PCPN MOSTLY OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA BUT
POTENTIALLY CLIPPING OUR NORTHWEST.

TEMPS ALOFT AROUND 11C WOULD SUPPORT MAX SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 80F.
CLOUDS IN THE EAST SHOULD KEEP TEMPS COOLER...WHILE INTERIOR
SECTIONS MAY SEE ENOUGH SUN TO REALIZE THE WARMER MAX TEMPS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY... INSTABILITY LINGERS NORTH AND WEST...AND ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES.  ON TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS EACH DAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS SHOULD BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. LINGERING INSTABILITY THURSDAY WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH STILL IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD...BUT A DRIER AIRMASS.  WILL
INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST PLACES AND CHANCE POPS MERRIMACK
VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN PLACE FRIDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...

THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXCEPT BRIEFLY LOWER IN VICINITY OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS LATE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT A PERIOD OF FAIRLY STEADY RAIN
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MOST TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR NW OF THE AIRFIELD BUT A
LOW PROBABILITY EXISTS OF ONE MOVING ACROSS THE AIR FIELD. EAST SOUTHEAST
SEA BREEZE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT TO
BE FROM SW AFTER ABOUT 00Z. NW EDGE OF RAIN SHIELD MAY BE CLOSE TO
BOS LATE SAT MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT POSSIBLY BRIEFLY LOWER IN VICINITY OF ANY TSTMS. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT EXCEPT THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF
MVFR VSBYS IN FOG...ESPECIALLY IF THE IMMEDIATE AREA IS AFFECTED
BY ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
OUTSET SAT BUT RAIN SHIELD MAY COME JUST FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SOUTHEAST WITH IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
AND ISLANDS.  MAINLY VFR NORTHWEST WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MVFR IN
AFTERNOON TSTMS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD...BUT SOME REDUCTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS IN RAIN.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...FRONT REMAINS STALLED EITHER OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS. AREAS OF POOR VISIBLITY IN RAIN AND FOG AS
DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS MONDAY BECOMING SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY. AREAS OF POOR VISIBILITY IN FOG EACH MORNING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH HIGHEST CHANCE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011953
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
353 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG A STALLED FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN TO AT LEAST SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS WITH US MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A COUPLE OF
COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INTERIOR MORE OR LESS ALONG THE PATTERN
ADVERTIZED BY THE HRRR. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROF SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HELPING TO SET OFF THE SCATTERED
CONVECTION. WIND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW AND SO NOT TOO LIKELY TO
SEE SEVERE...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THE RISK
OF A HIGHLY LOCALIZED PULSE STORM. AREA OF GREATEST INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON ANTICIPATED TO BE BOUNDED BY AREA ALONG AND TO
RIGHT OF LWM-BED-IJD-HFD-BAF-ORE-AFN-MHT LINE. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS. WITNESSED DUAL POL RAFL RATE
UP TO 1.5 INCHES/HOUR WITH STORM THAT PASSED ACROSS HOLYOKE.

TEMPS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FROM MID MORNING UPDATE EXCEPT WHERE
LOCAL COOLING IN VICINITY OF CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ON SATURDAY FOR AT LEAST
  THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH MORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WORKING UP
ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST MAY ALLOW RAIN TO OVERSPREAD
SOUTHERN SECTIONS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
WORK NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN WEAK
BAROCLINICITY THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH THE
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF PRECIPITATION SHIELDS.  THIS CASE IS NO
EXCEPTION...AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE IN THE LAST
48 HOURS.  WE DO THINK THAT AT LEAST SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WILL SEE A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR.  PWATS WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  INSTABILITY IS VERY
LIMITED...SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.

ALL IN ALL...WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION/TIMING OF THE
RAIN SHIELD ON SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...WE DO THINK AT LEAST THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SEE A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WHICH
MAY BE HEAVY FOR A TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN USA. ONE SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM THE EASTERN TROUGH SUNDAY
WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM CANADA. THE TROUGH THEN
MIGRATES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN...BUT WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY... COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED OFF THE SOUTH COAST.  MEANWHILE
THE UPPER SOUTHWEST JET REMAINS TO OUR WEST WITH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT UPPER
VENTING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...RESULTING
IN ONE OR MORE WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT AND PRODUCING AREAS OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT MOVE UP ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR LIFT AND RESULTING PRECIP WOULD BE
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES WITH 2 INCH VALUES JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST...SO
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

WITH AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE PATTERN AND THE UPPER JET RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION ALSO OVERHEAD...WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE EJECTS...AND WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C/KM AND
TOTALS AROUND 48 TO OUR NORTHWEST...THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER NY AND VT. THESE COULD THEN
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS...BUT THE LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT HERE SHOULD CAUSE THAT CONVECTION TO DIMINISH. MODEL QPF
FIELDS ALSO INDICATE MEASUREABLE PCPN MOSTLY OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA BUT
POTENTIALLY CLIPPING OUR NORTHWEST.

TEMPS ALOFT AROUND 11C WOULD SUPPORT MAX SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 80F.
CLOUDS IN THE EAST SHOULD KEEP TEMPS COOLER...WHILE INTERIOR
SECTIONS MAY SEE ENOUGH SUN TO REALIZE THE WARMER MAX TEMPS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY... INSTABILITY LINGERS NORTH AND WEST...AND ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES.  ON TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS EACH DAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS SHOULD BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. LINGERING INSTABILITY THURSDAY WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH STILL IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD...BUT A DRIER AIRMASS.  WILL
INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST PLACES AND CHANCE POPS MERRIMACK
VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN PLACE FRIDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...

THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXCEPT BRIEFLY LOWER IN VICINITY OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS LATE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT A PERIOD OF FAIRLY STEADY RAIN
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MOST TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR NW OF THE AIRFIELD BUT A
LOW PROBABILITY EXISTS OF ONE MOVING ACROSS THE AIR FIELD. EAST SOUTHEAST
SEA BREEZE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT TO
BE FROM SW AFTER ABOUT 00Z. NW EDGE OF RAIN SHIELD MAY BE CLOSE TO
BOS LATE SAT MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT POSSIBLY BRIEFLY LOWER IN VICINITY OF ANY TSTMS. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT EXCEPT THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF
MVFR VSBYS IN FOG...ESPECIALLY IF THE IMMEDIATE AREA IS AFFECTED
BY ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
OUTSET SAT BUT RAIN SHIELD MAY COME JUST FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SOUTHEAST WITH IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
AND ISLANDS.  MAINLY VFR NORTHWEST WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MVFR IN
AFTERNOON TSTMS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD...BUT SOME REDUCTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS IN RAIN.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...FRONT REMAINS STALLED EITHER OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS. AREAS OF POOR VISIBLITY IN RAIN AND FOG AS
DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS MONDAY BECOMING SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY. AREAS OF POOR VISIBILITY IN FOG EACH MORNING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH HIGHEST CHANCE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KGYX 011903
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
303 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST TONIGHT AND LIFTS NORTH
TOMORROW MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
TONIGHT AND WILL STALL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY.
SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NOW DRIFTING
INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF NH AND THESE WILL BE TYPICAL OF THE
CONVECTION WE WILL SEE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER NH AND SW
MAINE IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS A WARM FRONT NEARS FROM THE
SOUTH. EXPECT OTHER SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NH AND WESTERN
MAINE MOUNTAINS WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS UPPER TROUGH NEARS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
DARK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. EXPECT SPOTS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND IN
SPOTS THAT GET A HEAVY SHOWER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUT WILL BE
NEAR ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE
COAST TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. ELSEWHERE...OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND CONTINUED SPOKES OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. INLAND AREAS WILL
HAVE LESS OF A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BUT INCREASED PWATS WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN EVERYWHERE. HIGHS REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH THE WARMEST READINGS INLAND. SATURDAY NIGHT SKIES
REMAIN CLOUDY BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY DIES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY REMAINING SHRA FROM WEAK COASTAL WAVE WILL QUICKLY END SUN
MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN...WITH MEAN TROFFING TO OUR
W. THIS COMBINATION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE
BROAD SW FLOW THRU THE COLUMN WILL PROMOTE WARM TEMPS...WITH
MODERATE HUMIDITY. AS A RESULT EACH AFTERNOON...PEAK HEATING
SHOULD YIELD SCT TSTMS. THESE WILL MAINLY BE TIED TO THE TERRAIN
HEATING IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING.

TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION WED OR THU...WITH A MORE
CONCENTRATED THREAT FOR CONVECTION. FORCING WILL BE STRONGER...SO
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FRONTAL TIMING ALONG WITH ADVECTION OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM THE W. IF WE CAN GET SOME NEAR 7 C/KM
LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THERE WOULD BE A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT NEARS FROM THE SOUTH. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE AT LEAST BRIEF
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN FOG WITH MOUNTAIN TERMINALS AND
ANYWHERE RECEIVING RAIN THIS EVENING THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS RETURNING THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
LATE IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED. BROAD SW FLOW WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSTMS MOST
DAYS...WITH LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

HANES/LEGRO









000
FXUS61 KGYX 011903
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
303 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST TONIGHT AND LIFTS NORTH
TOMORROW MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
TONIGHT AND WILL STALL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY.
SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NOW DRIFTING
INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF NH AND THESE WILL BE TYPICAL OF THE
CONVECTION WE WILL SEE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER NH AND SW
MAINE IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS A WARM FRONT NEARS FROM THE
SOUTH. EXPECT OTHER SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NH AND WESTERN
MAINE MOUNTAINS WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS UPPER TROUGH NEARS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
DARK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. EXPECT SPOTS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND IN
SPOTS THAT GET A HEAVY SHOWER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUT WILL BE
NEAR ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE
COAST TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. ELSEWHERE...OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND CONTINUED SPOKES OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. INLAND AREAS WILL
HAVE LESS OF A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BUT INCREASED PWATS WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN EVERYWHERE. HIGHS REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH THE WARMEST READINGS INLAND. SATURDAY NIGHT SKIES
REMAIN CLOUDY BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY DIES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY REMAINING SHRA FROM WEAK COASTAL WAVE WILL QUICKLY END SUN
MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN...WITH MEAN TROFFING TO OUR
W. THIS COMBINATION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE
BROAD SW FLOW THRU THE COLUMN WILL PROMOTE WARM TEMPS...WITH
MODERATE HUMIDITY. AS A RESULT EACH AFTERNOON...PEAK HEATING
SHOULD YIELD SCT TSTMS. THESE WILL MAINLY BE TIED TO THE TERRAIN
HEATING IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING.

TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION WED OR THU...WITH A MORE
CONCENTRATED THREAT FOR CONVECTION. FORCING WILL BE STRONGER...SO
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FRONTAL TIMING ALONG WITH ADVECTION OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM THE W. IF WE CAN GET SOME NEAR 7 C/KM
LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THERE WOULD BE A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT NEARS FROM THE SOUTH. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE AT LEAST BRIEF
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN FOG WITH MOUNTAIN TERMINALS AND
ANYWHERE RECEIVING RAIN THIS EVENING THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS RETURNING THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
LATE IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED. BROAD SW FLOW WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSTMS MOST
DAYS...WITH LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

HANES/LEGRO








000
FXUS61 KBOX 011804
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
204 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW SPOT SHOWERS
AROUND ON SUNDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INTERIOR MORE OR LESS ALONG THE PATTERN
ADVERTIZED BY THE HRRR. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROF SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HELPING TO SET OFF THE SCATTERED
CONVECTION. WIND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW AND SO NOT TOO LIKELY TO
SEE SEVERE...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THE RISK
OF A HIGHLY LOCALIZED PULSE STORM. AREA OF GREATEST INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON ANTICIPATED TO BE BOUNDED BY AREA ALONG AND TO
RIGHT OF LWM-BED-IJD-HFD-BAF-ORE-AFN-MHT LINE. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS. WITNESSED DUAL POL RAFL RATE
UP TO 1.5 INCHES/HOUR WITH STORM THAT PASSED ACROSS HOLYOKE.

TEMPS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FROM MID MORNING UPDATE EXCEPT WHERE
LOCAL COOLING IN VICINITY OF CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ON SATURDAY FOR AT LEAST
  THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH MORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WORKING UP
ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST MAY ALLOW RAIN TO OVERSPREAD
SOUTHERN SECTIONS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
WORK NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN WEAK
BAROCLINICITY THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH THE
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF PRECIPITATION SHIELDS.  THIS CASE IS NO
EXCEPTION...AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE IN THE LAST
48 HOURS.  WE DO THINK THAT AT LEAST SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WILL SEE A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR.  PWATS WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  INSTABILITY IS VERY
LIMITED...SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.

ALL IN ALL...WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION/TIMING OF THE
RAIN SHIELD ON SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...WE DO THINK AT LEAST THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SEE A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WHICH
MAY BE HEAVY FOR A TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND
ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST SHIFTS
WEST OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT
LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH PART OF THIS TIME.
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD
EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME PERIOD AND ACROSS THE REGION.  HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...RI...AND SE MA. THE
NAM INDICATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT IT
IS ALONE IN FORECASTING THAT SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR THE TIME
BEING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. COOLER BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...

THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXCEPT BRIEFLY LOWER IN VICINITY OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS LATE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT A PERIOD OF FAIRLY STEADY RAIN
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MOST TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR NW OF THE AIRFIELD BUT A
LOW PROBABILITY EXISTS OF ONE MOVING ACROSS THE AIR FIELD. EAST SOUTHEAST
SEA BREEZE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT TO
BE FROM SW AFTER ABOUT 00Z. NW EDGE OF RAIN SHIELD MAY BE CLOSE TO
BOS LATE SAT MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT POSSIBLY BRIEFLY LOWER IN VICINITY OF ANY TSTMS. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT EXCEPT THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF
MVFR VSBYS IN FOG...ESPECIALLY IF THE IMMEDIATE AREA IS AFFECTED
BY ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
OUTSET SAT BUT RAIN SHIELD MAY COME JUST FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.  COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD...BUT SOME REDUCTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS IN RAIN.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.  RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH A WAVERING STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO BE REDUCED IN FOG.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED. COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG/THOMPSON
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011804
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
204 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW SPOT SHOWERS
AROUND ON SUNDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INTERIOR MORE OR LESS ALONG THE PATTERN
ADVERTIZED BY THE HRRR. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROF SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HELPING TO SET OFF THE SCATTERED
CONVECTION. WIND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW AND SO NOT TOO LIKELY TO
SEE SEVERE...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THE RISK
OF A HIGHLY LOCALIZED PULSE STORM. AREA OF GREATEST INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON ANTICIPATED TO BE BOUNDED BY AREA ALONG AND TO
RIGHT OF LWM-BED-IJD-HFD-BAF-ORE-AFN-MHT LINE. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS. WITNESSED DUAL POL RAFL RATE
UP TO 1.5 INCHES/HOUR WITH STORM THAT PASSED ACROSS HOLYOKE.

TEMPS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FROM MID MORNING UPDATE EXCEPT WHERE
LOCAL COOLING IN VICINITY OF CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ON SATURDAY FOR AT LEAST
  THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH MORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WORKING UP
ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST MAY ALLOW RAIN TO OVERSPREAD
SOUTHERN SECTIONS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
WORK NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN WEAK
BAROCLINICITY THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH THE
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF PRECIPITATION SHIELDS.  THIS CASE IS NO
EXCEPTION...AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE IN THE LAST
48 HOURS.  WE DO THINK THAT AT LEAST SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WILL SEE A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR.  PWATS WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  INSTABILITY IS VERY
LIMITED...SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.

ALL IN ALL...WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION/TIMING OF THE
RAIN SHIELD ON SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...WE DO THINK AT LEAST THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SEE A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WHICH
MAY BE HEAVY FOR A TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND
ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST SHIFTS
WEST OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT
LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH PART OF THIS TIME.
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD
EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME PERIOD AND ACROSS THE REGION.  HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...RI...AND SE MA. THE
NAM INDICATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT IT
IS ALONE IN FORECASTING THAT SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR THE TIME
BEING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. COOLER BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...

THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXCEPT BRIEFLY LOWER IN VICINITY OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS LATE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT A PERIOD OF FAIRLY STEADY RAIN
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MOST TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR NW OF THE AIRFIELD BUT A
LOW PROBABILITY EXISTS OF ONE MOVING ACROSS THE AIR FIELD. EAST SOUTHEAST
SEA BREEZE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT TO
BE FROM SW AFTER ABOUT 00Z. NW EDGE OF RAIN SHIELD MAY BE CLOSE TO
BOS LATE SAT MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT POSSIBLY BRIEFLY LOWER IN VICINITY OF ANY TSTMS. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT EXCEPT THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF
MVFR VSBYS IN FOG...ESPECIALLY IF THE IMMEDIATE AREA IS AFFECTED
BY ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
OUTSET SAT BUT RAIN SHIELD MAY COME JUST FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.  COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD...BUT SOME REDUCTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS IN RAIN.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.  RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH A WAVERING STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO BE REDUCED IN FOG.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED. COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG/THOMPSON
MARINE...FRANK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KGYX 011521 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1121 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND WILL STALL OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY. SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
INCREASED PORTLAND`S HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE DEGREES AS THEY
ARE ALREADY AT 76 DEGREES. A FEW CLOUDS STILL DRIFTING BY WITH
STRATUS STILL ENTRENCHED IN THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND
LIFTING SLOWLY. CUMULUS IS SLOW TO BUILD SO FAR TODAY BUT SHOULD
START SOON WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE ON THIS MORNINGS KGYX
SOUNDING AT 79 DEGREES.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT INCLUDED IT
IN THE GRIDS AS CURRENT WEATHER. ALSO ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SB CAPES UP AROUND 200-500 J.KG. FEW OTHER
CHANGES BESIDES UPDATING OVERNIGHT LOW AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES/
DEW POINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTHWEST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. WILL BRING SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
INTO SOUTHERN ZONES TOWARDS MORNING AS WEAK MID LEVEL OVERRUNNING
MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TOO
WIDESPREAD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.

AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY START TO SATURDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS EXPECT SOME SUNNY BREAKS TO DEVELOP
IN INLAND LOCATIONS AS HIGH MID LEVEL CLOUDS PUSH EAST. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAINE.
WILL SEE A COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD.

LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROFS MOVING
THRU THE BROADER PATTERN. UPPER LVL FLOW IS MAINLY FROM THE SW WHICH
IS CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST SOME WET WX WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID WX
POSSIBLE. BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD THE SW FLOW ALOFT ENDS BUT A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES THRU...AGAIN SUPPORTING A CHC OF
PRCP.

AT THE SFC A WEAK WARM FNT APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKENS AS
IT MOVES THRU ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK WARM FNT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A TROF OR WEAK COLD FNT MOVE THRU MID WEEK.

OVERALL THIS SUGGESTS A CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY THRU
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE CHC HIGHER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS THEN DROPPING OFF AT NGT.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN VALLEY FOG
THIS MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR. VFR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...UNSETTLED WX PATTERN
WITH A RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS EACH DAY WHICH MAY CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...MORE SO IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LATE NGT
FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EACH NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE SFC WEATHER
PATTERN HAS WEAK FEATURES DOMINATING THRU THE LONG TERM FCST
PERIOD RESULTING IN WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES







000
FXUS61 KGYX 011521 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1121 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND WILL STALL OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY. SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
INCREASED PORTLAND`S HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE DEGREES AS THEY
ARE ALREADY AT 76 DEGREES. A FEW CLOUDS STILL DRIFTING BY WITH
STRATUS STILL ENTRENCHED IN THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND
LIFTING SLOWLY. CUMULUS IS SLOW TO BUILD SO FAR TODAY BUT SHOULD
START SOON WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE ON THIS MORNINGS KGYX
SOUNDING AT 79 DEGREES.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT INCLUDED IT
IN THE GRIDS AS CURRENT WEATHER. ALSO ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SB CAPES UP AROUND 200-500 J.KG. FEW OTHER
CHANGES BESIDES UPDATING OVERNIGHT LOW AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES/
DEW POINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTHWEST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. WILL BRING SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
INTO SOUTHERN ZONES TOWARDS MORNING AS WEAK MID LEVEL OVERRUNNING
MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TOO
WIDESPREAD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.

AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY START TO SATURDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS EXPECT SOME SUNNY BREAKS TO DEVELOP
IN INLAND LOCATIONS AS HIGH MID LEVEL CLOUDS PUSH EAST. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAINE.
WILL SEE A COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD.

LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROFS MOVING
THRU THE BROADER PATTERN. UPPER LVL FLOW IS MAINLY FROM THE SW WHICH
IS CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST SOME WET WX WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID WX
POSSIBLE. BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD THE SW FLOW ALOFT ENDS BUT A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES THRU...AGAIN SUPPORTING A CHC OF
PRCP.

AT THE SFC A WEAK WARM FNT APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKENS AS
IT MOVES THRU ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK WARM FNT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A TROF OR WEAK COLD FNT MOVE THRU MID WEEK.

OVERALL THIS SUGGESTS A CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY THRU
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE CHC HIGHER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS THEN DROPPING OFF AT NGT.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN VALLEY FOG
THIS MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR. VFR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...UNSETTLED WX PATTERN
WITH A RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS EACH DAY WHICH MAY CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...MORE SO IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LATE NGT
FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EACH NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE SFC WEATHER
PATTERN HAS WEAK FEATURES DOMINATING THRU THE LONG TERM FCST
PERIOD RESULTING IN WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES






000
FXUS61 KBOX 011432
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1032 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND DURATION BRIEF. LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS AROUND ON SUNDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...THE FOG HAS ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATED WITH JUST A FEW
LINGERING HAZE PATCHES. SEA BREEZE RUNNING A LITTLE AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE ALONG MA E COAST AND HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT IN UPDATE. REDUCED
THE CLOUD COVER FOR THE NEXT 4 TO 6 HOURS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
DO EXPECT CUMULUS FORMATION AND WIDELY SCT TO SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT TAPERED BACK A LITTLE THE POPS. NAM
SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE OVERDONE ON INSTABILITY. HRR DOES SHOW
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS DEVELOPING ABOUT 30 MI EITHER SIDE OF A
LWM-ORH-BDL LINE 16Z-22Z. GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR AND MEDIOCRE
INSTABILITY...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TSTMS TO REACH SVR THRESHOLD AT
THIS TIME.

ADJUSTED TEMPS JUST A TAD HIGHER ACROSS SE AND E INTERIOR
MA...OTHERWISE LOOKS GOOD.

7 AM UPDATE...AREAS OF FOG...SOME OF THEM DENSE...CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE SHOULD BURN OFF THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS. THEY ARE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO MASSACHUSETTS.
REGARDLESS...INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH WHERE THESE
SHOWERS ARE TRACKING. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

EXPECT A MIXTURE OF SUN AND CLOUDS TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE. THE LATEST
HRRR/RAP SHOW THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FROM NORTHERN
CT/RHODE ISLAND AND INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL
BE THE HIGHEST. HOWEVER...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY KEEP ANY CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ON SATURDAY FOR AT LEAST
  THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH MORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WORKING UP
ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST MAY ALLOW RAIN TO OVERSPREAD
SOUTHERN SECTIONS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
WORK NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN WEAK
BAROCLINICITY THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH THE
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF PRECIPITATION SHIELDS.  THIS CASE IS NO
EXCEPTION...AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE IN THE LAST
48 HOURS.  WE DO THINK THAT AT LEAST SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WILL SEE A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR.  PWATS WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  INSTABILITY IS VERY
LIMITED...SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.

ALL IN ALL...WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION/TIMING OF THE
RAIN SHIELD ON SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...WE DO THINK AT LEAST THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SEE A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WHICH
MAY BE HEAVY FOR A TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND
ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST SHIFTS
WEST OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT
LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH PART OF THIS TIME.
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD
EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME PERIOD AND ACROSS THE REGION.  HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...RI...AND SE MA. THE
NAM INDICATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT IT
IS ALONE IN FORECASTING THAT SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR THE TIME
BEING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. COOLER BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS OF 14Z FOG HAD BURNED OFF
LEAVING JUST A FEW HAZE PATCHES. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SEA BREEZE HAS ALREADY KICKED INTO E COASTAL MA. A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD
RESULT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS
LATE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF RAIN WILL PROBABLY
AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION FOR AT LEAST A
TIME.  THIS MAY RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  A
SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AND REFLECTED THAT IN A
TAF UPDATE. ALSO...THERE IS LOW PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM
THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  LOW PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.  COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD...BUT SOME REDUCTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS IN RAIN.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.  RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH A WAVERING STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO BE REDUCED IN FOG.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED. COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG/THOMPSON
MARINE...FRANK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 011432
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1032 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND DURATION BRIEF. LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS AROUND ON SUNDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...THE FOG HAS ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATED WITH JUST A FEW
LINGERING HAZE PATCHES. SEA BREEZE RUNNING A LITTLE AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE ALONG MA E COAST AND HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT IN UPDATE. REDUCED
THE CLOUD COVER FOR THE NEXT 4 TO 6 HOURS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
DO EXPECT CUMULUS FORMATION AND WIDELY SCT TO SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT TAPERED BACK A LITTLE THE POPS. NAM
SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE OVERDONE ON INSTABILITY. HRR DOES SHOW
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS DEVELOPING ABOUT 30 MI EITHER SIDE OF A
LWM-ORH-BDL LINE 16Z-22Z. GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR AND MEDIOCRE
INSTABILITY...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TSTMS TO REACH SVR THRESHOLD AT
THIS TIME.

ADJUSTED TEMPS JUST A TAD HIGHER ACROSS SE AND E INTERIOR
MA...OTHERWISE LOOKS GOOD.

7 AM UPDATE...AREAS OF FOG...SOME OF THEM DENSE...CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE SHOULD BURN OFF THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS. THEY ARE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO MASSACHUSETTS.
REGARDLESS...INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH WHERE THESE
SHOWERS ARE TRACKING. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

EXPECT A MIXTURE OF SUN AND CLOUDS TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE. THE LATEST
HRRR/RAP SHOW THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FROM NORTHERN
CT/RHODE ISLAND AND INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL
BE THE HIGHEST. HOWEVER...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY KEEP ANY CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ON SATURDAY FOR AT LEAST
  THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH MORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WORKING UP
ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST MAY ALLOW RAIN TO OVERSPREAD
SOUTHERN SECTIONS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
WORK NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN WEAK
BAROCLINICITY THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH THE
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF PRECIPITATION SHIELDS.  THIS CASE IS NO
EXCEPTION...AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE IN THE LAST
48 HOURS.  WE DO THINK THAT AT LEAST SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WILL SEE A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR.  PWATS WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  INSTABILITY IS VERY
LIMITED...SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.

ALL IN ALL...WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION/TIMING OF THE
RAIN SHIELD ON SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...WE DO THINK AT LEAST THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SEE A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WHICH
MAY BE HEAVY FOR A TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND
ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST SHIFTS
WEST OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT
LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH PART OF THIS TIME.
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD
EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME PERIOD AND ACROSS THE REGION.  HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...RI...AND SE MA. THE
NAM INDICATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT IT
IS ALONE IN FORECASTING THAT SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR THE TIME
BEING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. COOLER BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS OF 14Z FOG HAD BURNED OFF
LEAVING JUST A FEW HAZE PATCHES. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SEA BREEZE HAS ALREADY KICKED INTO E COASTAL MA. A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD
RESULT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS
LATE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF RAIN WILL PROBABLY
AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION FOR AT LEAST A
TIME.  THIS MAY RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  A
SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AND REFLECTED THAT IN A
TAF UPDATE. ALSO...THERE IS LOW PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM
THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  LOW PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.  COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD...BUT SOME REDUCTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS IN RAIN.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.  RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH A WAVERING STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO BE REDUCED IN FOG.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED. COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG/THOMPSON
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KGYX 011217 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
817 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND WILL STALL OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY. SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
DENSE FOG WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT INCLUDED IT
IN THE GRIDS AS CURRENT WEATHER. ALSO ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SB CAPES UP AROUND 200-500 J.KG. FEW OTHER
CHANGES BESIDES UPDATING OVERNIGHT LOW AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES/
DEW POINTS.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES BUT K VALUES AND CURRENT DEW POINTS SUGGEST
A LACK OF MOISTURE SO NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTHWEST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. WILL BRING SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
INTO SOUTHERN ZONES TOWARDS MORNING AS WEAK MID LEVEL OVER-RUNNING
MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TOO
WIDESPREAD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.

AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY START TO SATURDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS EXPECT SOME SUNNY BREAKS TO DEVELOP
IN INLAND LOCATIONS AS HIGH MID LEVEL CLOUDS PUSH EAST. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAINE.
WILL SEE A COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD.

LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROFS MOVING
THRU THE BROADER PATTERN. UPPER LVL FLOW IS MAINLY FROM THE SW WHICH
IS CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST SOME WET WX WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID WX
POSSIBLE. BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD THE SW FLOW ALOFT ENDS BUT A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES THRU...AGAIN SUPPORTING A CHC OF
PRCP.

AT THE SFC A WEAK WARM FNT APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKENS AS
IT MOVES THRU ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK WARM FNT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A TROF OR WEAK COLD FNT MOVE THRU MID WEEK.

OVERALL THIS SUGGESTS A CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY THRU
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE CHC HIGHER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS THEN DROPPING OFF AT NGT.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN VALLEY FOG
THIS MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR. VFR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...UNSETTLED WX PATTERN
WITH A RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS EACH DAY WHICH MAY CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...MORE SO IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LATE NGT
FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EACH NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE SFC WEATHER
PATTERN HAS WEAK FEATURES DOMINATING THRU THE LONG TERM FCST
PERIOD RESULTING IN WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES






000
FXUS61 KGYX 011217 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
817 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND WILL STALL OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY. SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
DENSE FOG WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT INCLUDED IT
IN THE GRIDS AS CURRENT WEATHER. ALSO ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SB CAPES UP AROUND 200-500 J.KG. FEW OTHER
CHANGES BESIDES UPDATING OVERNIGHT LOW AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES/
DEW POINTS.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES BUT K VALUES AND CURRENT DEW POINTS SUGGEST
A LACK OF MOISTURE SO NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTHWEST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. WILL BRING SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
INTO SOUTHERN ZONES TOWARDS MORNING AS WEAK MID LEVEL OVER-RUNNING
MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TOO
WIDESPREAD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.

AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY START TO SATURDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS EXPECT SOME SUNNY BREAKS TO DEVELOP
IN INLAND LOCATIONS AS HIGH MID LEVEL CLOUDS PUSH EAST. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAINE.
WILL SEE A COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD.

LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROFS MOVING
THRU THE BROADER PATTERN. UPPER LVL FLOW IS MAINLY FROM THE SW WHICH
IS CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST SOME WET WX WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID WX
POSSIBLE. BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD THE SW FLOW ALOFT ENDS BUT A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES THRU...AGAIN SUPPORTING A CHC OF
PRCP.

AT THE SFC A WEAK WARM FNT APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKENS AS
IT MOVES THRU ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK WARM FNT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A TROF OR WEAK COLD FNT MOVE THRU MID WEEK.

OVERALL THIS SUGGESTS A CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY THRU
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE CHC HIGHER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS THEN DROPPING OFF AT NGT.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN VALLEY FOG
THIS MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR. VFR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...UNSETTLED WX PATTERN
WITH A RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS EACH DAY WHICH MAY CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...MORE SO IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LATE NGT
FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EACH NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE SFC WEATHER
PATTERN HAS WEAK FEATURES DOMINATING THRU THE LONG TERM FCST
PERIOD RESULTING IN WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES





000
FXUS61 KBOX 011058
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
658 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A
WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED.  LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH
PERHAPS JUST A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AROUND ON SUNDAY.  SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BUT
  WERE NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT***

7 AM UPDATE...AREAS OF FOG...SOME OF THEM DENSE...CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE SHOULD BURN OFF THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS. THEY ARE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO MASSACHUSETTS.
REGARDLESS...INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH WHERE THESE
SHOWERS ARE TRACKING. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

EXPECT A MIXTURE OF SUN AND CLOUDS TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE. THE LATEST
HRRR/RAP SHOW THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FROM NORTHERN
CT/RHODE ISLAND AND INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL
BE THE HIGHEST. HOWEVER...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY KEEP ANY CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ON SATURDAY FOR AT LEAST
  THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH MORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WORKING UP
ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST MAY ALLOW RAIN TO OVERSPREAD
SOUTHERN SECTIONS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
WORK NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN WEAK
BAROCLINICITY THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH THE
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF PRECIPITATION SHIELDS.  THIS CASE IS NO
EXCEPTION...AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE IN THE LAST
48 HOURS.  WE DO THINK THAT AT LEAST SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WILL SEE A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR.  PWATS WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  INSTABILITY IS VERY
LIMITED...SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.

ALL IN ALL...WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION/TIMING OF THE
RAIN SHIELD ON SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...WE DO THINK AT LEAST THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SEE A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WHICH
MAY BE HEAVY FOR A TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND
ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST SHIFTS
WEST OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT
LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH PART OF THIS TIME.
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD
EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME PERIOD AND ACROSS THE REGION.  HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...RI...AND SE MA. THE
NAM INDICATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT IT
IS ALONE IN FORECASTING THAT SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR THE TIME
BEING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. COOLER BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS
LATE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF RAIN WILL PROBABLY
AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION FOR AT LEAST A
TIME.  THIS MAY RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  A
SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON.  ALSO...THERE
IS LOW PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  LOW PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.  COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD...BUT SOME REDUCTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS IN RAIN.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.  RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH A WAVERING STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO BE REDUCED IN FOG.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED. COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011058
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
658 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A
WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED.  LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH
PERHAPS JUST A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AROUND ON SUNDAY.  SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BUT
  WERE NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT***

7 AM UPDATE...AREAS OF FOG...SOME OF THEM DENSE...CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE SHOULD BURN OFF THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS. THEY ARE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO MASSACHUSETTS.
REGARDLESS...INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH WHERE THESE
SHOWERS ARE TRACKING. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

EXPECT A MIXTURE OF SUN AND CLOUDS TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE. THE LATEST
HRRR/RAP SHOW THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FROM NORTHERN
CT/RHODE ISLAND AND INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL
BE THE HIGHEST. HOWEVER...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY KEEP ANY CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ON SATURDAY FOR AT LEAST
  THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH MORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WORKING UP
ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST MAY ALLOW RAIN TO OVERSPREAD
SOUTHERN SECTIONS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
WORK NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN WEAK
BAROCLINICITY THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH THE
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF PRECIPITATION SHIELDS.  THIS CASE IS NO
EXCEPTION...AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE IN THE LAST
48 HOURS.  WE DO THINK THAT AT LEAST SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WILL SEE A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR.  PWATS WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  INSTABILITY IS VERY
LIMITED...SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.

ALL IN ALL...WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION/TIMING OF THE
RAIN SHIELD ON SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...WE DO THINK AT LEAST THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SEE A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WHICH
MAY BE HEAVY FOR A TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND
ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST SHIFTS
WEST OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT
LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH PART OF THIS TIME.
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD
EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME PERIOD AND ACROSS THE REGION.  HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...RI...AND SE MA. THE
NAM INDICATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT IT
IS ALONE IN FORECASTING THAT SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR THE TIME
BEING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. COOLER BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS
LATE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF RAIN WILL PROBABLY
AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION FOR AT LEAST A
TIME.  THIS MAY RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  A
SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON.  ALSO...THERE
IS LOW PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  LOW PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.  COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD...BUT SOME REDUCTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS IN RAIN.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.  RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH A WAVERING STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO BE REDUCED IN FOG.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED. COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011058
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
658 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A
WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED.  LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH
PERHAPS JUST A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AROUND ON SUNDAY.  SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BUT
  WERE NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT***

7 AM UPDATE...AREAS OF FOG...SOME OF THEM DENSE...CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE SHOULD BURN OFF THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS. THEY ARE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO MASSACHUSETTS.
REGARDLESS...INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH WHERE THESE
SHOWERS ARE TRACKING. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

EXPECT A MIXTURE OF SUN AND CLOUDS TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE. THE LATEST
HRRR/RAP SHOW THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FROM NORTHERN
CT/RHODE ISLAND AND INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL
BE THE HIGHEST. HOWEVER...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY KEEP ANY CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ON SATURDAY FOR AT LEAST
  THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH MORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WORKING UP
ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST MAY ALLOW RAIN TO OVERSPREAD
SOUTHERN SECTIONS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
WORK NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN WEAK
BAROCLINICITY THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH THE
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF PRECIPITATION SHIELDS.  THIS CASE IS NO
EXCEPTION...AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE IN THE LAST
48 HOURS.  WE DO THINK THAT AT LEAST SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WILL SEE A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR.  PWATS WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  INSTABILITY IS VERY
LIMITED...SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.

ALL IN ALL...WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION/TIMING OF THE
RAIN SHIELD ON SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...WE DO THINK AT LEAST THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SEE A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WHICH
MAY BE HEAVY FOR A TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND
ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST SHIFTS
WEST OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT
LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH PART OF THIS TIME.
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD
EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME PERIOD AND ACROSS THE REGION.  HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...RI...AND SE MA. THE
NAM INDICATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT IT
IS ALONE IN FORECASTING THAT SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR THE TIME
BEING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. COOLER BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS
LATE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF RAIN WILL PROBABLY
AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION FOR AT LEAST A
TIME.  THIS MAY RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  A
SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON.  ALSO...THERE
IS LOW PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  LOW PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.  COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD...BUT SOME REDUCTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS IN RAIN.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.  RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH A WAVERING STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO BE REDUCED IN FOG.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED. COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011058
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
658 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A
WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED.  LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH
PERHAPS JUST A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AROUND ON SUNDAY.  SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BUT
  WERE NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT***

7 AM UPDATE...AREAS OF FOG...SOME OF THEM DENSE...CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE SHOULD BURN OFF THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS. THEY ARE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO MASSACHUSETTS.
REGARDLESS...INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH WHERE THESE
SHOWERS ARE TRACKING. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

EXPECT A MIXTURE OF SUN AND CLOUDS TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE. THE LATEST
HRRR/RAP SHOW THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FROM NORTHERN
CT/RHODE ISLAND AND INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL
BE THE HIGHEST. HOWEVER...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY KEEP ANY CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ON SATURDAY FOR AT LEAST
  THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH MORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WORKING UP
ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST MAY ALLOW RAIN TO OVERSPREAD
SOUTHERN SECTIONS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
WORK NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN WEAK
BAROCLINICITY THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH THE
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF PRECIPITATION SHIELDS.  THIS CASE IS NO
EXCEPTION...AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE IN THE LAST
48 HOURS.  WE DO THINK THAT AT LEAST SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WILL SEE A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR.  PWATS WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  INSTABILITY IS VERY
LIMITED...SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.

ALL IN ALL...WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION/TIMING OF THE
RAIN SHIELD ON SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...WE DO THINK AT LEAST THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SEE A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WHICH
MAY BE HEAVY FOR A TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND
ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST SHIFTS
WEST OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT
LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH PART OF THIS TIME.
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD
EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME PERIOD AND ACROSS THE REGION.  HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...RI...AND SE MA. THE
NAM INDICATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT IT
IS ALONE IN FORECASTING THAT SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR THE TIME
BEING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. COOLER BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS
LATE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF RAIN WILL PROBABLY
AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION FOR AT LEAST A
TIME.  THIS MAY RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  A
SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON.  ALSO...THERE
IS LOW PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  LOW PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.  COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD...BUT SOME REDUCTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS IN RAIN.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.  RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH A WAVERING STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO BE REDUCED IN FOG.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED. COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 010816
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
415 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A
WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED.  LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH
PERHAPS JUST A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AROUND ON SUNDAY.  SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BUT
  WERE NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT***

AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT A
MIXTURE OF SUN AND CLOUDS TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.   A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND
AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE.  THE LATEST HRRR/RAP SHOW THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FROM NORTHERN CT/RHODE ISLAND AND INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN MA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE HIGHEST.
HOWEVER...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL
PROBABLY KEEP ANY CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ON SATURDAY FOR AT LEAST
  THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH MORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WORKING UP
ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST MAY ALLOW RAIN TO OVERSPREAD
SOUTHERN SECTIONS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
WORK NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN WEAK
BAROCLINICITY THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH THE
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF PRECIPITATION SHIELDS.  THIS CASE IS NO
EXCEPTION...AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE IN THE LAST
48 HOURS.  WE DO THINK THAT AT LEAST SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WILL SEE A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR.  PWATS WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  INSTABILITY IS VERY
LIMITED...SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.

ALL IN ALL...WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION/TIMING OF THE
RAIN SHIELD ON SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...WE DO THINK AT LEAST THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SEE A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WHICH
MAY BE HEAVY FOR A TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND
ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST SHIFTS
WEST OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT
LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH PART OF THIS TIME.
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD
EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME PERIOD AND ACROSS THE REGION.  HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...RI...AND SE MA. THE
NAM INDICATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT IT
IS ALONE IN FORECASTING THAT SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR THE TIME
BEING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. COOLER BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS
LATE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF RAIN WILL PROBABLY
AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION FOR AT LEAST A
TIME.  THIS MAY RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  A
SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON.  ALSO...THERE
IS LOW PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  LOW PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.  COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD...BUT SOME REDUCTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS IN RAIN.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.  RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH A WAVERING STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO BE REDUCED IN FOG.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED. COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 010816
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
415 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A
WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED.  LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH
PERHAPS JUST A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AROUND ON SUNDAY.  SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BUT
  WERE NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT***

AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT A
MIXTURE OF SUN AND CLOUDS TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.   A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND
AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE.  THE LATEST HRRR/RAP SHOW THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FROM NORTHERN CT/RHODE ISLAND AND INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN MA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE HIGHEST.
HOWEVER...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL
PROBABLY KEEP ANY CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ON SATURDAY FOR AT LEAST
  THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH MORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WORKING UP
ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST MAY ALLOW RAIN TO OVERSPREAD
SOUTHERN SECTIONS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
WORK NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN WEAK
BAROCLINICITY THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH THE
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF PRECIPITATION SHIELDS.  THIS CASE IS NO
EXCEPTION...AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE IN THE LAST
48 HOURS.  WE DO THINK THAT AT LEAST SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WILL SEE A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR.  PWATS WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  INSTABILITY IS VERY
LIMITED...SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.

ALL IN ALL...WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION/TIMING OF THE
RAIN SHIELD ON SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...WE DO THINK AT LEAST THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SEE A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WHICH
MAY BE HEAVY FOR A TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND
ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST SHIFTS
WEST OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT
LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH PART OF THIS TIME.
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD
EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME PERIOD AND ACROSS THE REGION.  HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...RI...AND SE MA. THE
NAM INDICATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT IT
IS ALONE IN FORECASTING THAT SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR THE TIME
BEING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. COOLER BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS
LATE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF RAIN WILL PROBABLY
AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION FOR AT LEAST A
TIME.  THIS MAY RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  A
SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON.  ALSO...THERE
IS LOW PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  LOW PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.  COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD...BUT SOME REDUCTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS IN RAIN.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.  RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH A WAVERING STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO BE REDUCED IN FOG.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED. COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 010718
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
318 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95. THE WEEKEND FORECAST REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF WET WEATHER CONTINUES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
THEN DRY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
2 AM UPDATE...

AREAS OF FOG...SOME OF WHICH WAS LOCALLY DENSE HAS DEVELOPED
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHWEST MA AS A RESULT OF THE WET GROUND
FROM YESTERDAY/S RAINFALL.  AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OTHER
LOCATIONS...BUT IT WILL BE MOST PREVALENT IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

LOW TEMPS BY DAYBREAK SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH LINGERING OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS PLACES OUR AREA IN SW
FLOW...AND THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT
UPSTREAM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DURING FRIDAY SOME AFTERNOON DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...CAPE
INCREASING TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MAY ASSIST AS A TRIGGER. SHEAR IS LESS
THAN TODAY AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE NOT AS COLD.

FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE CONTINUES. AN OFFSHORE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BACK WESTWARD TOWARDS OUR COASTLINE...AND MODELS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OPEN WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
FRONT. OVER THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT INCREASING CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH RAIN/SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW FOR 12Z SAT...GENERALLY
BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND
ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST SHIFTS
WEST OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT
LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH PART OF THIS TIME.
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD
EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME PERIOD AND ACROSS THE REGION.  HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...RI...AND SE MA. THE
NAM INDICATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT IT
IS ALONE IN FORECASTING THAT SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR THE TIME
BEING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. COOLER BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF FOG WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK...PARTICULARLY IN
NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHERN NH WHERE IT WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
IN ALL LOCATIONS.  ALSO...EXPECT A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS
LATE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN MAY AFFECT
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION FOR A TIME.  THIS MAY
RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON.
ALSO...THERE IS VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  LOW PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.  COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. IN ADDITION...WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.  RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH A WAVERING STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO BE REDUCED IN FOG.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED. COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/NMB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...RLG/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 010718
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
318 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95. THE WEEKEND FORECAST REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF WET WEATHER CONTINUES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
THEN DRY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
2 AM UPDATE...

AREAS OF FOG...SOME OF WHICH WAS LOCALLY DENSE HAS DEVELOPED
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHWEST MA AS A RESULT OF THE WET GROUND
FROM YESTERDAY/S RAINFALL.  AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OTHER
LOCATIONS...BUT IT WILL BE MOST PREVALENT IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

LOW TEMPS BY DAYBREAK SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH LINGERING OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS PLACES OUR AREA IN SW
FLOW...AND THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT
UPSTREAM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DURING FRIDAY SOME AFTERNOON DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...CAPE
INCREASING TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MAY ASSIST AS A TRIGGER. SHEAR IS LESS
THAN TODAY AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE NOT AS COLD.

FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE CONTINUES. AN OFFSHORE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BACK WESTWARD TOWARDS OUR COASTLINE...AND MODELS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OPEN WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
FRONT. OVER THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT INCREASING CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH RAIN/SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW FOR 12Z SAT...GENERALLY
BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND
ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST SHIFTS
WEST OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT
LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH PART OF THIS TIME.
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD
EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME PERIOD AND ACROSS THE REGION.  HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...RI...AND SE MA. THE
NAM INDICATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT IT
IS ALONE IN FORECASTING THAT SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR THE TIME
BEING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. COOLER BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF FOG WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK...PARTICULARLY IN
NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHERN NH WHERE IT WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
IN ALL LOCATIONS.  ALSO...EXPECT A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS
LATE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN MAY AFFECT
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION FOR A TIME.  THIS MAY
RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON.
ALSO...THERE IS VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  LOW PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.  COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. IN ADDITION...WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.  RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH A WAVERING STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO BE REDUCED IN FOG.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED. COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/NMB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...RLG/NMB



000
FXUS61 KGYX 010648
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
248 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND WILL STALL OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY. SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES BUT K VALUES AND CURRENT DEW POINTS SUGGEST
A LACK OF MOISTURE SO NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTHWEST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. WILL BRING SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
INTO SOUTHERN ZONES TOWARDS MORNING AS WEAK MID LEVEL OVER-RUNNING
MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TOO
WIDESPREAD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.

AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY START TO SATURDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS EXPECT SOME SUNNY BREAKS TO DEVELOP
IN INLAND LOCATIONS AS HIGH MID LEVEL CLOUDS PUSH EAST. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAINE.
WILL SEE A COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD.

LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROFS MOVING
THRU THE BROADER PATTERN. UPPER LVL FLOW IS MAINLY FROM THE SW WHICH
IS CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST SOME WET WX WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID WX
POSSIBLE. BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD THE SW FLOW ALOFT ENDS BUT A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES THRU...AGAIN SUPPORTING A CHC OF
PRCP.

AT THE SFC A WEAK WARM FNT APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKENS AS
IT MOVES THRU ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK WARM FNT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A TROF OR WEAK COLD FNT MOVE THRU MID WEEK.

OVERALL THIS SUGGESTS A CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY THRU
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE CHC HIGHER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS THEN DROPPING OFF AT NGT.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN VALLEY FOG
THIS MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR. VFR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...UNSETTLED WX PATTERN
WITH A RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS EACH DAY WHICH MAY CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...MORE SO IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LATE NGT
FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EACH NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE SFC WEATHER
PATTERN HAS WEAK FEATURES DOMINATING THRU THE LONG TERM FCST
PERIOD RESULTING IN WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 010648
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
248 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND WILL STALL OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY. SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES BUT K VALUES AND CURRENT DEW POINTS SUGGEST
A LACK OF MOISTURE SO NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTHWEST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. WILL BRING SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
INTO SOUTHERN ZONES TOWARDS MORNING AS WEAK MID LEVEL OVER-RUNNING
MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TOO
WIDESPREAD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.

AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY START TO SATURDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS EXPECT SOME SUNNY BREAKS TO DEVELOP
IN INLAND LOCATIONS AS HIGH MID LEVEL CLOUDS PUSH EAST. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAINE.
WILL SEE A COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD.

LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROFS MOVING
THRU THE BROADER PATTERN. UPPER LVL FLOW IS MAINLY FROM THE SW WHICH
IS CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST SOME WET WX WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID WX
POSSIBLE. BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD THE SW FLOW ALOFT ENDS BUT A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES THRU...AGAIN SUPPORTING A CHC OF
PRCP.

AT THE SFC A WEAK WARM FNT APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKENS AS
IT MOVES THRU ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK WARM FNT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A TROF OR WEAK COLD FNT MOVE THRU MID WEEK.

OVERALL THIS SUGGESTS A CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY THRU
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE CHC HIGHER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS THEN DROPPING OFF AT NGT.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN VALLEY FOG
THIS MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR. VFR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...UNSETTLED WX PATTERN
WITH A RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS EACH DAY WHICH MAY CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...MORE SO IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LATE NGT
FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EACH NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE SFC WEATHER
PATTERN HAS WEAK FEATURES DOMINATING THRU THE LONG TERM FCST
PERIOD RESULTING IN WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KBOX 010603
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
202 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95. THE WEEKEND FORECAST REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF WET WEATHER CONTINUES.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

AREAS OF FOG...SOME OF WHICH WAS LOCALLY DENSE HAS DEVELOPED
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHWEST MA AS A RESULT OF THE WET GROUND
FROM YESTERDAY/S RAINFALL.  AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OTHER
LOCATIONS...BUT IT WILL BE MOST PREVALENT IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

LOW TEMPS BY DAYBREAK SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH LINGERING OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS PLACES OUR AREA IN SW
FLOW...AND THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT
UPSTREAM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DURING FRIDAY SOME AFTERNOON DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...CAPE
INCREASING TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MAY ASSIST AS A TRIGGER. SHEAR IS LESS
THAN TODAY AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE NOT AS COLD.

FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE CONTINUES. AN OFFSHORE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BACK WESTWARD TOWARDS OUR COASTLINE...AND MODELS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OPEN WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
FRONT. OVER THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT INCREASING CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH RAIN/SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW FOR 12Z SAT...GENERALLY
BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY
DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.
USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST
THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST. THIS WESTWARD SHIFT DRAGS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
WEST TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...
EXPECTING A FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH PART OF THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THIS
FRONT AND IN ITS TIMING. DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE RESOLUTION OF
THESE DETAILS...THE FORECAST COULD REQUIRE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY END TO THE RISK FOR STEADY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COOLER
BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST...PUSHING A FRONT CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAINFALL CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF FOG WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK...PARTICULARLY IN
NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHERN NH WHERE IT WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
IN ALL LOCATIONS.  ALSO...EXPECT A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS
LATE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN MAY AFFECT
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION FOR A TIME.  THIS MAY
RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON.
ALSO...THERE IS VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  LOW PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. IN ADDITION...WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO WINDS AND SEAS. RAIN IS LIKELY FOR A TIME THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS A WAVERING STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.
THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITY. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH ONLY THE THREAT OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...FRANK/BELK
MARINE...BELK/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 010603
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
202 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95. THE WEEKEND FORECAST REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF WET WEATHER CONTINUES.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

AREAS OF FOG...SOME OF WHICH WAS LOCALLY DENSE HAS DEVELOPED
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHWEST MA AS A RESULT OF THE WET GROUND
FROM YESTERDAY/S RAINFALL.  AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OTHER
LOCATIONS...BUT IT WILL BE MOST PREVALENT IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

LOW TEMPS BY DAYBREAK SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH LINGERING OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS PLACES OUR AREA IN SW
FLOW...AND THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT
UPSTREAM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DURING FRIDAY SOME AFTERNOON DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...CAPE
INCREASING TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MAY ASSIST AS A TRIGGER. SHEAR IS LESS
THAN TODAY AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE NOT AS COLD.

FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE CONTINUES. AN OFFSHORE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BACK WESTWARD TOWARDS OUR COASTLINE...AND MODELS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OPEN WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
FRONT. OVER THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT INCREASING CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH RAIN/SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW FOR 12Z SAT...GENERALLY
BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY
DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.
USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST
THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST. THIS WESTWARD SHIFT DRAGS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
WEST TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...
EXPECTING A FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH PART OF THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THIS
FRONT AND IN ITS TIMING. DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE RESOLUTION OF
THESE DETAILS...THE FORECAST COULD REQUIRE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY END TO THE RISK FOR STEADY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COOLER
BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST...PUSHING A FRONT CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAINFALL CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF FOG WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK...PARTICULARLY IN
NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHERN NH WHERE IT WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
IN ALL LOCATIONS.  ALSO...EXPECT A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS
LATE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN MAY AFFECT
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION FOR A TIME.  THIS MAY
RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON.
ALSO...THERE IS VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  LOW PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. IN ADDITION...WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO WINDS AND SEAS. RAIN IS LIKELY FOR A TIME THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS A WAVERING STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.
THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITY. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH ONLY THE THREAT OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...FRANK/BELK
MARINE...BELK/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 010603
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
202 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95. THE WEEKEND FORECAST REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF WET WEATHER CONTINUES.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

AREAS OF FOG...SOME OF WHICH WAS LOCALLY DENSE HAS DEVELOPED
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHWEST MA AS A RESULT OF THE WET GROUND
FROM YESTERDAY/S RAINFALL.  AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OTHER
LOCATIONS...BUT IT WILL BE MOST PREVALENT IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

LOW TEMPS BY DAYBREAK SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH LINGERING OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS PLACES OUR AREA IN SW
FLOW...AND THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT
UPSTREAM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DURING FRIDAY SOME AFTERNOON DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...CAPE
INCREASING TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MAY ASSIST AS A TRIGGER. SHEAR IS LESS
THAN TODAY AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE NOT AS COLD.

FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE CONTINUES. AN OFFSHORE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BACK WESTWARD TOWARDS OUR COASTLINE...AND MODELS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OPEN WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
FRONT. OVER THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT INCREASING CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH RAIN/SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW FOR 12Z SAT...GENERALLY
BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY
DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.
USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST
THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST. THIS WESTWARD SHIFT DRAGS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
WEST TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...
EXPECTING A FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH PART OF THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THIS
FRONT AND IN ITS TIMING. DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE RESOLUTION OF
THESE DETAILS...THE FORECAST COULD REQUIRE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY END TO THE RISK FOR STEADY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COOLER
BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST...PUSHING A FRONT CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAINFALL CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF FOG WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK...PARTICULARLY IN
NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHERN NH WHERE IT WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
IN ALL LOCATIONS.  ALSO...EXPECT A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS
LATE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN MAY AFFECT
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION FOR A TIME.  THIS MAY
RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON.
ALSO...THERE IS VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  LOW PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. IN ADDITION...WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO WINDS AND SEAS. RAIN IS LIKELY FOR A TIME THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS A WAVERING STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.
THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITY. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH ONLY THE THREAT OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...FRANK/BELK
MARINE...BELK/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 010603
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
202 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95. THE WEEKEND FORECAST REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF WET WEATHER CONTINUES.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

AREAS OF FOG...SOME OF WHICH WAS LOCALLY DENSE HAS DEVELOPED
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHWEST MA AS A RESULT OF THE WET GROUND
FROM YESTERDAY/S RAINFALL.  AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OTHER
LOCATIONS...BUT IT WILL BE MOST PREVALENT IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

LOW TEMPS BY DAYBREAK SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH LINGERING OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS PLACES OUR AREA IN SW
FLOW...AND THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT
UPSTREAM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DURING FRIDAY SOME AFTERNOON DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...CAPE
INCREASING TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MAY ASSIST AS A TRIGGER. SHEAR IS LESS
THAN TODAY AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE NOT AS COLD.

FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE CONTINUES. AN OFFSHORE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BACK WESTWARD TOWARDS OUR COASTLINE...AND MODELS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OPEN WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
FRONT. OVER THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT INCREASING CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH RAIN/SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW FOR 12Z SAT...GENERALLY
BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY
DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.
USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST
THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST. THIS WESTWARD SHIFT DRAGS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
WEST TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...
EXPECTING A FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH PART OF THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THIS
FRONT AND IN ITS TIMING. DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE RESOLUTION OF
THESE DETAILS...THE FORECAST COULD REQUIRE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY END TO THE RISK FOR STEADY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COOLER
BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST...PUSHING A FRONT CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAINFALL CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF FOG WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK...PARTICULARLY IN
NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHERN NH WHERE IT WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
IN ALL LOCATIONS.  ALSO...EXPECT A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS
LATE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN MAY AFFECT
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION FOR A TIME.  THIS MAY
RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON.
ALSO...THERE IS VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  LOW PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. IN ADDITION...WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO WINDS AND SEAS. RAIN IS LIKELY FOR A TIME THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS A WAVERING STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.
THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITY. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH ONLY THE THREAT OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...FRANK/BELK
MARINE...BELK/NMB



000
FXUS61 KGYX 010133
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
933 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY IN THE
MOUNTAINS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN...WITH PERHAPS A CORRIDOR FROM WELLS TO PSM KEEPING THE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER THROUGH 03Z. MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THESE SHOWERS AS THEY DRY UP AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.

OTHERWISE...JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE WINDS...DEW POINT AND CLOUD
GRIDS. HAVE REMOVED ANY ENHANCED WORDING AND UPDATED THE HWO.

PREV DISC...
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM.
SLOW HEATING HAS OCCURRED TODAY BENEATH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
ACROSS NH. THIS HAS PREVENTED MUCH OF THE STATE FROM REACHING
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...FARTHER E READINGS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 70S HAVE TRIGGERED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MAINE. FOR NOW THE STORMS ARE STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN MUCH
HEIGHT...BUT WITH TIME COOLING ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED
UPDRAFT GROWTH. EXPECT THAT CAPE WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 1000 J/KG
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT ADEQUATE SHEAR WILL HELP TO KEEP SOME
ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION. A FEW LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND
REPORTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. SO FAR THE MAIN FORCING WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PRODUCED A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT AND SMALL HAIL. THOUGH
ONE CELL BRIEFLY ATTAINED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE LINE AND MANAGED TO PRODUCE 1 INCH HAIL. FEEL
THAT THIS IS A FAIRLY GOOD REPRESENTATION OF WHAT WE CAN EXPECT
ACROSS NH AND THEN MAINE THIS EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL IN THE GRIDS UNTIL 01 OR 02Z.

VARIOUS CONVECTIVE TOOLS...INCLUDING SPC SSEO AND HI-RES
MODELS...RAPIDLY WEAKEN STORMS AFTER SUNSET. POP FORECAST DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACCORDINGLY. EXPECTING THAT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG
OCCURS INLAND...WITH COASTAL FOG/STRATUS RELOADING FROM THE
MIDCOAST DOWN TO KPWM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL COLD POOL REMAINS ALOFT AT H5 ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A LARGER CAP THAN TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP A LID ON ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM...PRECLUDING ANY SEVERE
THREAT. ALSO LIGHTNING PROBABLY WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY
EITHER...SO HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCE OF TSTMS DOWN.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE RIDING UP THE EAST COAST
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE S. SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THRU SUNRISE...BUT HAVE SOME LOW CHANCE POP
SNEAKING INTO SOUTHERN NH BY 12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STORY OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION... WITH THE NORTHEAST BEING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. SEVERAL MINOR WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOSTLY DURING PEAK HEATING. COOL AIR ALOFT ALSO KEEPS THE
ATMOSPHERE WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS THE SUN WARMS THE LOW
LEVELS. THE RESULT IS THAT THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK GETS PRETTY REDUNDANT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT EVERY AFTERNOON... MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS... WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY... SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS WEAK SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED.

A SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY... WITH A
POSSIBLE SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH AS WELL. THIS WILL BRING
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
ENTIRE AREA. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE... AND AS SUCH... THE NAM WIND FIELDS WOULD INDICATE SOME
PRETTY GOOD LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. SO ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THE
WARM FRONT COULD SEE A WEAK SPIN UP... BUT THE OVERALL THREAT WILL
REMAIN LOW ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT SHOW AS
DRAMATIC OF A WARM FRONT.

GREAT LAKES TROUGH BECOMES BROADER AND LESS AMPLIFIED MONDAY...
BUT WILL STILL SEE THE DIURNAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS TREND CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AND THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY END AFTER
SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING. ANY VFR WILL BE SHORT LIVED
THOUGH...AS VALLEY FOG WILL BE QUICK TO SET IN WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY INTO THE MIDCOAST
BY 03Z. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...LINGERING
INTO MID MORNING FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
ACROSS NH. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS MAY BEGIN TO
WORK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. NOCTURNAL FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT GRAZE THE WATERS WILL WEAKEN
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. SUB- SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU
FRIDAY...HOWEVER AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
JC






000
FXUS61 KGYX 010133
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
933 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY IN THE
MOUNTAINS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN...WITH PERHAPS A CORRIDOR FROM WELLS TO PSM KEEPING THE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER THROUGH 03Z. MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THESE SHOWERS AS THEY DRY UP AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.

OTHERWISE...JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE WINDS...DEW POINT AND CLOUD
GRIDS. HAVE REMOVED ANY ENHANCED WORDING AND UPDATED THE HWO.

PREV DISC...
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM.
SLOW HEATING HAS OCCURRED TODAY BENEATH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
ACROSS NH. THIS HAS PREVENTED MUCH OF THE STATE FROM REACHING
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...FARTHER E READINGS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 70S HAVE TRIGGERED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MAINE. FOR NOW THE STORMS ARE STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN MUCH
HEIGHT...BUT WITH TIME COOLING ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED
UPDRAFT GROWTH. EXPECT THAT CAPE WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 1000 J/KG
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT ADEQUATE SHEAR WILL HELP TO KEEP SOME
ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION. A FEW LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND
REPORTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. SO FAR THE MAIN FORCING WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PRODUCED A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT AND SMALL HAIL. THOUGH
ONE CELL BRIEFLY ATTAINED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE LINE AND MANAGED TO PRODUCE 1 INCH HAIL. FEEL
THAT THIS IS A FAIRLY GOOD REPRESENTATION OF WHAT WE CAN EXPECT
ACROSS NH AND THEN MAINE THIS EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL IN THE GRIDS UNTIL 01 OR 02Z.

VARIOUS CONVECTIVE TOOLS...INCLUDING SPC SSEO AND HI-RES
MODELS...RAPIDLY WEAKEN STORMS AFTER SUNSET. POP FORECAST DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACCORDINGLY. EXPECTING THAT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG
OCCURS INLAND...WITH COASTAL FOG/STRATUS RELOADING FROM THE
MIDCOAST DOWN TO KPWM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL COLD POOL REMAINS ALOFT AT H5 ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A LARGER CAP THAN TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP A LID ON ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM...PRECLUDING ANY SEVERE
THREAT. ALSO LIGHTNING PROBABLY WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY
EITHER...SO HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCE OF TSTMS DOWN.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE RIDING UP THE EAST COAST
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE S. SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THRU SUNRISE...BUT HAVE SOME LOW CHANCE POP
SNEAKING INTO SOUTHERN NH BY 12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STORY OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION... WITH THE NORTHEAST BEING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. SEVERAL MINOR WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOSTLY DURING PEAK HEATING. COOL AIR ALOFT ALSO KEEPS THE
ATMOSPHERE WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS THE SUN WARMS THE LOW
LEVELS. THE RESULT IS THAT THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK GETS PRETTY REDUNDANT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT EVERY AFTERNOON... MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS... WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY... SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS WEAK SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED.

A SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY... WITH A
POSSIBLE SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH AS WELL. THIS WILL BRING
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
ENTIRE AREA. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE... AND AS SUCH... THE NAM WIND FIELDS WOULD INDICATE SOME
PRETTY GOOD LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. SO ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THE
WARM FRONT COULD SEE A WEAK SPIN UP... BUT THE OVERALL THREAT WILL
REMAIN LOW ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT SHOW AS
DRAMATIC OF A WARM FRONT.

GREAT LAKES TROUGH BECOMES BROADER AND LESS AMPLIFIED MONDAY...
BUT WILL STILL SEE THE DIURNAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS TREND CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AND THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY END AFTER
SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING. ANY VFR WILL BE SHORT LIVED
THOUGH...AS VALLEY FOG WILL BE QUICK TO SET IN WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY INTO THE MIDCOAST
BY 03Z. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...LINGERING
INTO MID MORNING FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
ACROSS NH. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS MAY BEGIN TO
WORK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. NOCTURNAL FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT GRAZE THE WATERS WILL WEAKEN
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. SUB- SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU
FRIDAY...HOWEVER AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
JC





000
FXUS61 KBOX 010116
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
915 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95. THE WEEKEND FORECAST REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF WET WEATHER CONTINUES.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

915 PM UPDATE...

THE LAST MAIN CLUSTER OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NH
SHOULD EXIT THAT REGION IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.  OTHERWISE...CAN/T
RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH MIDNIGHT
...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.

AS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS.  LOW TEMPS BY DAYBREAK WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 50S...TO LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCALES.  SOME PATCHY GROUND
FOG WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP LATE IN SOME OF THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH LINGERING OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS PLACES OUR AREA IN SW
FLOW...AND THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT
UPSTREAM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DURING FRIDAY SOME AFTERNOON DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...CAPE
INCREASING TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MAY ASSIST AS A TRIGGER. SHEAR IS LESS
THAN TODAY AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE NOT AS COLD.

FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE CONTINUES. AN OFFSHORE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BACK WESTWARD TOWARDS OUR COASTLINE...AND MODELS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OPEN WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
FRONT. OVER THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT INCREASING CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH RAIN/SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW FOR 12Z SAT...GENERALLY
BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY
DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.
USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST
THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST. THIS WESTWARD SHIFT DRAGS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
WEST TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...
EXPECTING A FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH PART OF THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THIS
FRONT AND IN ITS TIMING. DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE RESOLUTION OF
THESE DETAILS...THE FORECAST COULD REQUIRE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY END TO THE RISK FOR STEADY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COOLER
BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST...PUSHING A FRONT CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAINFALL CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
SHRA SHOULD DIMINISH BY 01/02Z.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...
MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95. THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY
LOWER CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS. LOW CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING FRIDAY TOWARDS MIDDAY.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. IN ADDITION...WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO WINDS AND SEAS. RAIN IS LIKELY FOR A TIME THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS A WAVERING STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.
THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITY. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH ONLY THE THREAT OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 312343
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
743 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
NORTHWEST OF I-95. THE WEEKEND FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF WET WEATHER CONTINUES. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

730 PM UPDATE...

CAPE VALUES CONTINUE TO DECLINE...AND A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
FARTHER EAST FROM OUR REGION. EXPECTING THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS
THIS EVENING TO DIMINISH OR MOVE EAST OF SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHERN
MA BY 9-10 PM. OTHER THAN THAT...THE PRIMARY FORECAST THEME
REMAINS ON TRACK. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO NEAR TERM CONDITIONS TO
REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION ENDS EARLY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT SW. THERE MAY
BE PATCHY LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT CROSS OUR
AREA...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DIP
INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS MOST LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH LINGERING OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS PLACES OUR AREA IN SW
FLOW...AND THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT
UPSTREAM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DURING FRIDAY SOME AFTERNOON DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...CAPE
INCREASING TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MAY ASSIST AS A TRIGGER. SHEAR IS LESS
THAN TODAY AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE NOT AS COLD.

FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE CONTINUES. AN OFFSHORE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BACK WESTWARD TOWARDS OUR COASTLINE...AND MODELS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OPEN WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
FRONT. OVER THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT INCREASING CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH RAIN/SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW FOR 12Z SAT...GENERALLY
BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY
DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.
USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST
THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST. THIS WESTWARD SHIFT DRAGS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
WEST TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...
EXPECTING A FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH PART OF THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THIS
FRONT AND IN ITS TIMING. DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE RESOLUTION OF
THESE DETAILS...THE FORECAST COULD REQUIRE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY END TO THE RISK FOR STEADY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COOLER
BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST...PUSHING A FRONT CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAINFALL CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
SHRA SHOULD DIMINISH BY 01/02Z.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...
MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95. THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY
LOWER CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS. LOW CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING FRIDAY TOWARDS MIDDAY.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. IN ADDITION...WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO WINDS AND SEAS. RAIN IS LIKELY FOR A TIME THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS A WAVERING STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.
THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITY. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH ONLY THE THREAT OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...BELK/NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 312343
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
743 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
NORTHWEST OF I-95. THE WEEKEND FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF WET WEATHER CONTINUES. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

730 PM UPDATE...

CAPE VALUES CONTINUE TO DECLINE...AND A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
FARTHER EAST FROM OUR REGION. EXPECTING THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS
THIS EVENING TO DIMINISH OR MOVE EAST OF SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHERN
MA BY 9-10 PM. OTHER THAN THAT...THE PRIMARY FORECAST THEME
REMAINS ON TRACK. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO NEAR TERM CONDITIONS TO
REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION ENDS EARLY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT SW. THERE MAY
BE PATCHY LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT CROSS OUR
AREA...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DIP
INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS MOST LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH LINGERING OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS PLACES OUR AREA IN SW
FLOW...AND THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT
UPSTREAM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DURING FRIDAY SOME AFTERNOON DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...CAPE
INCREASING TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MAY ASSIST AS A TRIGGER. SHEAR IS LESS
THAN TODAY AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE NOT AS COLD.

FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE CONTINUES. AN OFFSHORE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BACK WESTWARD TOWARDS OUR COASTLINE...AND MODELS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OPEN WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
FRONT. OVER THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT INCREASING CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH RAIN/SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW FOR 12Z SAT...GENERALLY
BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY
DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.
USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST
THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST. THIS WESTWARD SHIFT DRAGS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
WEST TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...
EXPECTING A FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH PART OF THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THIS
FRONT AND IN ITS TIMING. DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE RESOLUTION OF
THESE DETAILS...THE FORECAST COULD REQUIRE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY END TO THE RISK FOR STEADY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COOLER
BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST...PUSHING A FRONT CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAINFALL CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
SHRA SHOULD DIMINISH BY 01/02Z.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...
MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95. THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY
LOWER CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS. LOW CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING FRIDAY TOWARDS MIDDAY.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. IN ADDITION...WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO WINDS AND SEAS. RAIN IS LIKELY FOR A TIME THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS A WAVERING STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.
THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITY. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH ONLY THE THREAT OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...BELK/NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 312343
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
743 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
NORTHWEST OF I-95. THE WEEKEND FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF WET WEATHER CONTINUES. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

730 PM UPDATE...

CAPE VALUES CONTINUE TO DECLINE...AND A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
FARTHER EAST FROM OUR REGION. EXPECTING THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS
THIS EVENING TO DIMINISH OR MOVE EAST OF SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHERN
MA BY 9-10 PM. OTHER THAN THAT...THE PRIMARY FORECAST THEME
REMAINS ON TRACK. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO NEAR TERM CONDITIONS TO
REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION ENDS EARLY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT SW. THERE MAY
BE PATCHY LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT CROSS OUR
AREA...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DIP
INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS MOST LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH LINGERING OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS PLACES OUR AREA IN SW
FLOW...AND THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT
UPSTREAM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DURING FRIDAY SOME AFTERNOON DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...CAPE
INCREASING TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MAY ASSIST AS A TRIGGER. SHEAR IS LESS
THAN TODAY AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE NOT AS COLD.

FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE CONTINUES. AN OFFSHORE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BACK WESTWARD TOWARDS OUR COASTLINE...AND MODELS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OPEN WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
FRONT. OVER THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT INCREASING CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH RAIN/SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW FOR 12Z SAT...GENERALLY
BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY
DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.
USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST
THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST. THIS WESTWARD SHIFT DRAGS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
WEST TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...
EXPECTING A FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH PART OF THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THIS
FRONT AND IN ITS TIMING. DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE RESOLUTION OF
THESE DETAILS...THE FORECAST COULD REQUIRE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY END TO THE RISK FOR STEADY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COOLER
BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST...PUSHING A FRONT CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAINFALL CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
SHRA SHOULD DIMINISH BY 01/02Z.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...
MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95. THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY
LOWER CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS. LOW CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING FRIDAY TOWARDS MIDDAY.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. IN ADDITION...WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO WINDS AND SEAS. RAIN IS LIKELY FOR A TIME THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS A WAVERING STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.
THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITY. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH ONLY THE THREAT OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...BELK/NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 312343
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
743 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
NORTHWEST OF I-95. THE WEEKEND FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF WET WEATHER CONTINUES. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

730 PM UPDATE...

CAPE VALUES CONTINUE TO DECLINE...AND A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
FARTHER EAST FROM OUR REGION. EXPECTING THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS
THIS EVENING TO DIMINISH OR MOVE EAST OF SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHERN
MA BY 9-10 PM. OTHER THAN THAT...THE PRIMARY FORECAST THEME
REMAINS ON TRACK. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO NEAR TERM CONDITIONS TO
REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION ENDS EARLY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT SW. THERE MAY
BE PATCHY LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT CROSS OUR
AREA...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DIP
INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS MOST LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH LINGERING OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS PLACES OUR AREA IN SW
FLOW...AND THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT
UPSTREAM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DURING FRIDAY SOME AFTERNOON DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...CAPE
INCREASING TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MAY ASSIST AS A TRIGGER. SHEAR IS LESS
THAN TODAY AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE NOT AS COLD.

FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE CONTINUES. AN OFFSHORE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BACK WESTWARD TOWARDS OUR COASTLINE...AND MODELS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OPEN WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
FRONT. OVER THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT INCREASING CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH RAIN/SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW FOR 12Z SAT...GENERALLY
BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY
DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.
USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST
THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST. THIS WESTWARD SHIFT DRAGS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
WEST TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...
EXPECTING A FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH PART OF THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THIS
FRONT AND IN ITS TIMING. DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE RESOLUTION OF
THESE DETAILS...THE FORECAST COULD REQUIRE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY END TO THE RISK FOR STEADY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COOLER
BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST...PUSHING A FRONT CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAINFALL CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
SHRA SHOULD DIMINISH BY 01/02Z.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...
MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95. THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY
LOWER CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS. LOW CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING FRIDAY TOWARDS MIDDAY.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. IN ADDITION...WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO WINDS AND SEAS. RAIN IS LIKELY FOR A TIME THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS A WAVERING STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.
THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITY. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH ONLY THE THREAT OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...BELK/NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB



000
FXUS61 KGYX 312136
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
536 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY IN THE
MOUNTAINS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINE TO EXIT THE MOUNTAINS OF
MAINE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE...LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS SHOW THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN BY AROUND
SUNSET.

A FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE IN THE EUSTIS AREA UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING.

PREV DISC...
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM.
SLOW HEATING HAS OCCURRED TODAY BENEATH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
ACROSS NH. THIS HAS PREVENTED MUCH OF THE STATE FROM REACHING
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...FARTHER E READINGS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 70S HAVE TRIGGERED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MAINE. FOR NOW THE STORMS ARE STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN MUCH
HEIGHT...BUT WITH TIME COOLING ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED
UPDRAFT GROWTH. EXPECT THAT CAPE WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 1000 J/KG
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT ADEQUATE SHEAR WILL HELP TO KEEP SOME
ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION. A FEW LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND
REPORTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. SO FAR THE MAIN FORCING WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PRODUCED A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT AND SMALL HAIL. THOUGH
ONE CELL BRIEFLY ATTAINED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE LINE AND MANAGED TO PRODUCE 1 INCH HAIL. FEEL
THAT THIS IS A FAIRLY GOOD REPRESENTATION OF WHAT WE CAN EXPECT
ACROSS NH AND THEN MAINE THIS EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL IN THE GRIDS UNTIL 01 OR 02Z.

VARIOUS CONVECTIVE TOOLS...INCLUDING SPC SSEO AND HI-RES
MODELS...RAPIDLY WEAKEN STORMS AFTER SUNSET. POP FORECAST DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACCORDINGLY. EXPECTING THAT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG
OCCURS INLAND...WITH COASTAL FOG/STRATUS RELOADING FROM THE
MIDCOAST DOWN TO KPWM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL COLD POOL REMAINS ALOFT AT H5 ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A LARGER CAP THAN TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP A LID ON ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM...PRECLUDING ANY SEVERE
THREAT. ALSO LIGHTNING PROBABLY WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY
EITHER...SO HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCE OF TSTMS DOWN.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE RIDING UP THE EAST COAST
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE S. SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THRU SUNRISE...BUT HAVE SOME LOW CHANCE POP
SNEAKING INTO SOUTHERN NH BY 12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STORY OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION... WITH THE NORTHEAST BEING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. SEVERAL MINOR WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOSTLY DURING PEAK HEATING. COOL AIR ALOFT ALSO KEEPS THE
ATMOSPHERE WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS THE SUN WARMS THE LOW
LEVELS. THE RESULT IS THAT THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK GETS PRETTY REDUNDANT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT EVERY AFTERNOON... MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS... WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY... SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS WEAK SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED.

A SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY... WITH A
POSSIBLE SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH AS WELL. THIS WILL BRING
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
ENTIRE AREA. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE... AND AS SUCH... THE NAM WIND FIELDS WOULD INDICATE SOME
PRETTY GOOD LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. SO ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THE
WARM FRONT COULD SEE A WEAK SPIN UP... BUT THE OVERALL THREAT WILL
REMAIN LOW ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT SHOW AS
DRAMATIC OF A WARM FRONT.

GREAT LAKES TROUGH BECOMES BROADER AND LESS AMPLIFIED MONDAY...
BUT WILL STILL SEE THE DIURNAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS TREND CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AND THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY END AFTER
SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING. ANY VFR WILL BE SHORT LIVED
THOUGH...AS VALLEY FOG WILL BE QUICK TO SET IN WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY INTO THE MIDCOAST
BY 03Z. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...LINGERING
INTO MID MORNING FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
ACROSS NH. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS MAY BEGIN TO
WORK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. NOCTURNAL FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT GRAZE THE WATERS WILL WEAKEN
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. SUB- SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU
FRIDAY...HOWEVER AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 312136
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
536 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY IN THE
MOUNTAINS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINE TO EXIT THE MOUNTAINS OF
MAINE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE...LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS SHOW THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN BY AROUND
SUNSET.

A FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE IN THE EUSTIS AREA UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING.

PREV DISC...
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM.
SLOW HEATING HAS OCCURRED TODAY BENEATH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
ACROSS NH. THIS HAS PREVENTED MUCH OF THE STATE FROM REACHING
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...FARTHER E READINGS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 70S HAVE TRIGGERED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MAINE. FOR NOW THE STORMS ARE STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN MUCH
HEIGHT...BUT WITH TIME COOLING ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED
UPDRAFT GROWTH. EXPECT THAT CAPE WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 1000 J/KG
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT ADEQUATE SHEAR WILL HELP TO KEEP SOME
ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION. A FEW LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND
REPORTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. SO FAR THE MAIN FORCING WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PRODUCED A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT AND SMALL HAIL. THOUGH
ONE CELL BRIEFLY ATTAINED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE LINE AND MANAGED TO PRODUCE 1 INCH HAIL. FEEL
THAT THIS IS A FAIRLY GOOD REPRESENTATION OF WHAT WE CAN EXPECT
ACROSS NH AND THEN MAINE THIS EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL IN THE GRIDS UNTIL 01 OR 02Z.

VARIOUS CONVECTIVE TOOLS...INCLUDING SPC SSEO AND HI-RES
MODELS...RAPIDLY WEAKEN STORMS AFTER SUNSET. POP FORECAST DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACCORDINGLY. EXPECTING THAT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG
OCCURS INLAND...WITH COASTAL FOG/STRATUS RELOADING FROM THE
MIDCOAST DOWN TO KPWM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL COLD POOL REMAINS ALOFT AT H5 ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A LARGER CAP THAN TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP A LID ON ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM...PRECLUDING ANY SEVERE
THREAT. ALSO LIGHTNING PROBABLY WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY
EITHER...SO HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCE OF TSTMS DOWN.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE RIDING UP THE EAST COAST
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE S. SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THRU SUNRISE...BUT HAVE SOME LOW CHANCE POP
SNEAKING INTO SOUTHERN NH BY 12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STORY OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION... WITH THE NORTHEAST BEING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. SEVERAL MINOR WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOSTLY DURING PEAK HEATING. COOL AIR ALOFT ALSO KEEPS THE
ATMOSPHERE WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS THE SUN WARMS THE LOW
LEVELS. THE RESULT IS THAT THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK GETS PRETTY REDUNDANT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT EVERY AFTERNOON... MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS... WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY... SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS WEAK SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED.

A SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY... WITH A
POSSIBLE SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH AS WELL. THIS WILL BRING
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
ENTIRE AREA. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE... AND AS SUCH... THE NAM WIND FIELDS WOULD INDICATE SOME
PRETTY GOOD LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. SO ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THE
WARM FRONT COULD SEE A WEAK SPIN UP... BUT THE OVERALL THREAT WILL
REMAIN LOW ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT SHOW AS
DRAMATIC OF A WARM FRONT.

GREAT LAKES TROUGH BECOMES BROADER AND LESS AMPLIFIED MONDAY...
BUT WILL STILL SEE THE DIURNAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS TREND CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AND THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY END AFTER
SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING. ANY VFR WILL BE SHORT LIVED
THOUGH...AS VALLEY FOG WILL BE QUICK TO SET IN WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY INTO THE MIDCOAST
BY 03Z. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...LINGERING
INTO MID MORNING FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
ACROSS NH. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS MAY BEGIN TO
WORK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. NOCTURNAL FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT GRAZE THE WATERS WILL WEAKEN
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. SUB- SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU
FRIDAY...HOWEVER AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 312136
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
536 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY IN THE
MOUNTAINS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINE TO EXIT THE MOUNTAINS OF
MAINE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE...LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS SHOW THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN BY AROUND
SUNSET.

A FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE IN THE EUSTIS AREA UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING.

PREV DISC...
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM.
SLOW HEATING HAS OCCURRED TODAY BENEATH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
ACROSS NH. THIS HAS PREVENTED MUCH OF THE STATE FROM REACHING
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...FARTHER E READINGS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 70S HAVE TRIGGERED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MAINE. FOR NOW THE STORMS ARE STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN MUCH
HEIGHT...BUT WITH TIME COOLING ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED
UPDRAFT GROWTH. EXPECT THAT CAPE WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 1000 J/KG
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT ADEQUATE SHEAR WILL HELP TO KEEP SOME
ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION. A FEW LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND
REPORTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. SO FAR THE MAIN FORCING WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PRODUCED A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT AND SMALL HAIL. THOUGH
ONE CELL BRIEFLY ATTAINED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE LINE AND MANAGED TO PRODUCE 1 INCH HAIL. FEEL
THAT THIS IS A FAIRLY GOOD REPRESENTATION OF WHAT WE CAN EXPECT
ACROSS NH AND THEN MAINE THIS EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL IN THE GRIDS UNTIL 01 OR 02Z.

VARIOUS CONVECTIVE TOOLS...INCLUDING SPC SSEO AND HI-RES
MODELS...RAPIDLY WEAKEN STORMS AFTER SUNSET. POP FORECAST DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACCORDINGLY. EXPECTING THAT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG
OCCURS INLAND...WITH COASTAL FOG/STRATUS RELOADING FROM THE
MIDCOAST DOWN TO KPWM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL COLD POOL REMAINS ALOFT AT H5 ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A LARGER CAP THAN TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP A LID ON ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM...PRECLUDING ANY SEVERE
THREAT. ALSO LIGHTNING PROBABLY WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY
EITHER...SO HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCE OF TSTMS DOWN.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE RIDING UP THE EAST COAST
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE S. SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THRU SUNRISE...BUT HAVE SOME LOW CHANCE POP
SNEAKING INTO SOUTHERN NH BY 12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STORY OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION... WITH THE NORTHEAST BEING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. SEVERAL MINOR WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOSTLY DURING PEAK HEATING. COOL AIR ALOFT ALSO KEEPS THE
ATMOSPHERE WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS THE SUN WARMS THE LOW
LEVELS. THE RESULT IS THAT THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK GETS PRETTY REDUNDANT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT EVERY AFTERNOON... MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS... WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY... SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS WEAK SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED.

A SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY... WITH A
POSSIBLE SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH AS WELL. THIS WILL BRING
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
ENTIRE AREA. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE... AND AS SUCH... THE NAM WIND FIELDS WOULD INDICATE SOME
PRETTY GOOD LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. SO ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THE
WARM FRONT COULD SEE A WEAK SPIN UP... BUT THE OVERALL THREAT WILL
REMAIN LOW ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT SHOW AS
DRAMATIC OF A WARM FRONT.

GREAT LAKES TROUGH BECOMES BROADER AND LESS AMPLIFIED MONDAY...
BUT WILL STILL SEE THE DIURNAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS TREND CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AND THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY END AFTER
SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING. ANY VFR WILL BE SHORT LIVED
THOUGH...AS VALLEY FOG WILL BE QUICK TO SET IN WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY INTO THE MIDCOAST
BY 03Z. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...LINGERING
INTO MID MORNING FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
ACROSS NH. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS MAY BEGIN TO
WORK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. NOCTURNAL FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT GRAZE THE WATERS WILL WEAKEN
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. SUB- SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU
FRIDAY...HOWEVER AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 312136
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
536 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY IN THE
MOUNTAINS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINE TO EXIT THE MOUNTAINS OF
MAINE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE...LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS SHOW THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN BY AROUND
SUNSET.

A FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE IN THE EUSTIS AREA UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING.

PREV DISC...
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM.
SLOW HEATING HAS OCCURRED TODAY BENEATH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
ACROSS NH. THIS HAS PREVENTED MUCH OF THE STATE FROM REACHING
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...FARTHER E READINGS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 70S HAVE TRIGGERED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MAINE. FOR NOW THE STORMS ARE STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN MUCH
HEIGHT...BUT WITH TIME COOLING ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED
UPDRAFT GROWTH. EXPECT THAT CAPE WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 1000 J/KG
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT ADEQUATE SHEAR WILL HELP TO KEEP SOME
ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION. A FEW LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND
REPORTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. SO FAR THE MAIN FORCING WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PRODUCED A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT AND SMALL HAIL. THOUGH
ONE CELL BRIEFLY ATTAINED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE LINE AND MANAGED TO PRODUCE 1 INCH HAIL. FEEL
THAT THIS IS A FAIRLY GOOD REPRESENTATION OF WHAT WE CAN EXPECT
ACROSS NH AND THEN MAINE THIS EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL IN THE GRIDS UNTIL 01 OR 02Z.

VARIOUS CONVECTIVE TOOLS...INCLUDING SPC SSEO AND HI-RES
MODELS...RAPIDLY WEAKEN STORMS AFTER SUNSET. POP FORECAST DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACCORDINGLY. EXPECTING THAT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG
OCCURS INLAND...WITH COASTAL FOG/STRATUS RELOADING FROM THE
MIDCOAST DOWN TO KPWM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL COLD POOL REMAINS ALOFT AT H5 ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A LARGER CAP THAN TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP A LID ON ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM...PRECLUDING ANY SEVERE
THREAT. ALSO LIGHTNING PROBABLY WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY
EITHER...SO HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCE OF TSTMS DOWN.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE RIDING UP THE EAST COAST
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE S. SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THRU SUNRISE...BUT HAVE SOME LOW CHANCE POP
SNEAKING INTO SOUTHERN NH BY 12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STORY OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION... WITH THE NORTHEAST BEING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. SEVERAL MINOR WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOSTLY DURING PEAK HEATING. COOL AIR ALOFT ALSO KEEPS THE
ATMOSPHERE WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS THE SUN WARMS THE LOW
LEVELS. THE RESULT IS THAT THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK GETS PRETTY REDUNDANT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT EVERY AFTERNOON... MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS... WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY... SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS WEAK SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED.

A SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY... WITH A
POSSIBLE SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH AS WELL. THIS WILL BRING
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
ENTIRE AREA. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE... AND AS SUCH... THE NAM WIND FIELDS WOULD INDICATE SOME
PRETTY GOOD LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. SO ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THE
WARM FRONT COULD SEE A WEAK SPIN UP... BUT THE OVERALL THREAT WILL
REMAIN LOW ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT SHOW AS
DRAMATIC OF A WARM FRONT.

GREAT LAKES TROUGH BECOMES BROADER AND LESS AMPLIFIED MONDAY...
BUT WILL STILL SEE THE DIURNAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS TREND CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AND THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY END AFTER
SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING. ANY VFR WILL BE SHORT LIVED
THOUGH...AS VALLEY FOG WILL BE QUICK TO SET IN WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY INTO THE MIDCOAST
BY 03Z. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...LINGERING
INTO MID MORNING FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
ACROSS NH. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS MAY BEGIN TO
WORK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. NOCTURNAL FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT GRAZE THE WATERS WILL WEAKEN
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. SUB- SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU
FRIDAY...HOWEVER AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KBOX 312048
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
448 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
NORTHWEST OF I-95. THE WEEKEND FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF WET WEATHER CONTINUES. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

...A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND
EXTREME NORTHERN MA INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...

4 PM UPDATE...

THIS EVENING...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE NEW YORK TO
NEW ENGLAND REGION.  MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO
MAINE...ASSOCIATED IN PART WITH A POTENT SHORT WAVE THAT IS LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES
MUCAPES 500 TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH
THE HIGHER CAPE VALUES OVER SOUTHERN NH INTO WESTERN MA. SOMEWHAT
WARMER AIR IS MOVING IN AT THE MID LEVELS...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO
LOWER INSTABILITY. HOWEVER SOME STRONG STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NH INTO EXTREME NORTHERN MA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.  DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.

TONIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION ENDS EARLY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT SW. THERE MAY
BE PATCHY LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT CROSS OUR
AREA...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DIP
INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS MOST LOCALES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH LINGERING OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS PLACES OUR AREA IN SW
FLOW...AND THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT
UPSTREAM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DURING FRIDAY SOME AFTERNOON DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...CAPE
INCREASING TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MAY ASSIST AS A TRIGGER. SHEAR IS LESS
THAN TODAY AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE NOT AS COLD.

FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE CONTINUES. AN OFFSHORE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BACK WESTWARD TOWARDS OUR COASTLINE...AND MODELS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OPEN WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
FRONT. OVER THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT INCREASING CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH RAIN/SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW FOR 12Z SAT...GENERALLY
BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY
DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.
USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST
THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST. THIS WESTWARD SHIFT DRAGS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
WEST TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...
EXPECTING A FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH PART OF THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THIS
FRONT AND IN ITS TIMING. DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE RESOLUTION OF
THESE DETAILS...THE FORECAST COULD REQUIRE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY END TO THE RISK FOR STEADY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COOLER
BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST...PUSHING A FRONT CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAINFALL CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

EARLY THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN
BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS.  LOW CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.  VERY LOW PROBABILITY
FOR A THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON. SEA
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING FRIDAY TOWARDS MIDDAY.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF
SHOWER THUNDERSTORM TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. IN ADDITION...WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO WINDS AND SEAS. RAIN IS LIKELY FOR A TIME THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS A WAVERING STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.
THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITY. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH ONLY THE THREAT OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB



000
FXUS61 KGYX 311904
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
304 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY IN THE
MOUNTAINS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM.
SLOW HEATING HAS OCCURRED TODAY BENEATH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
ACROSS NH. THIS HAS PREVENTED MUCH OF THE STATE FROM REACHING
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...FARTHER E READINGS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 70S HAVE TRIGGERED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MAINE. FOR NOW THE STORMS ARE STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN MUCH
HEIGHT...BUT WITH TIME COOLING ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED
UPDRAFT GROWTH. EXPECT THAT CAPE WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 1000 J/KG
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT ADEQUATE SHEAR WILL HELP TO KEEP SOME
ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION. A FEW LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND
REPORTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. SO FAR THE MAIN FORCING WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PRODUCED A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT AND SMALL HAIL. THOUGH
ONE CELL BRIEFLY ATTAINED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE LINE AND MANAGED TO PRODUCE 1 INCH HAIL. FEEL
THAT THIS IS A FAIRLY GOOD REPRESENTATION OF WHAT WE CAN EXPECT
ACROSS NH AND THEN MAINE THIS EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL IN THE GRIDS UNTIL 01 OR 02Z.

VARIOUS CONVECTIVE TOOLS...INCLUDING SPC SSEO AND HI-RES
MODELS...RAPIDLY WEAKEN STORMS AFTER SUNSET. POP FORECAST DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACCORDINGLY. EXPECTING THAT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG
OCCURS INLAND...WITH COASTAL FOG/STRATUS RELOADING FROM THE
MIDCOAST DOWN TO KPWM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL COLD POOL REMAINS ALOFT AT H5 ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A LARGER CAP THAN TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP A LID ON ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM...PRECLUDING ANY SEVERE
THREAT. ALSO LIGHTNING PROBABLY WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY
EITHER...SO HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCE OF TSTMS DOWN.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE RIDING UP THE EAST COAST
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE S. SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THRU SUNRISE...BUT HAVE SOME LOW CHANCE POP
SNEAKING INTO SOUTHERN NH BY 12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STORY OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION... WITH THE NORTHEAST BEING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. SEVERAL MINOR WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOSTLY DURING PEAK HEATING. COOL AIR ALOFT ALSO KEEPS THE
ATMOSPHERE WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS THE SUN WARMS THE LOW
LEVELS. THE RESULT IS THAT THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK GETS PRETTY REDUNDANT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT EVERY AFTERNOON... MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS... WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY... SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS WEAK SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED.

A SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY... WITH A
POSSIBLE SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH AS WELL. THIS WILL BRING
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
ENTIRE AREA. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE... AND AS SUCH... THE NAM WIND FIELDS WOULD INDICATE SOME
PRETTY GOOD LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. SO ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THE
WARM FRONT COULD SEE A WEAK SPIN UP... BUT THE OVERALL THREAT WILL
REMAIN LOW ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT SHOW AS
DRAMATIC OF A WARM FRONT.

GREAT LAKES TROUGH BECOMES BROADER AND LESS AMPLIFIED MONDAY...
BUT WILL STILL SEE THE DIURNAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS TREND CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AND THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY END AFTER
SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING. ANY VFR WILL BE SHORT LIVED
THOUGH...AS VALLEY FOG WILL BE QUICK TO SET IN WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY INTO THE MIDCOAST
BY 03Z. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...LINGERING
INTO MID MORNING FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
ACROSS NH. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS MAY BEGIN TO
WORK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. NOCTURNAL FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT GRAZE THE WATERS WILL WEAKEN
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. SUB- SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU
FRIDAY...HOWEVER AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...KIMBLE/LEGRO
MARINE...KIMBLE/LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 311904
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
304 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY IN THE
MOUNTAINS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM.
SLOW HEATING HAS OCCURRED TODAY BENEATH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
ACROSS NH. THIS HAS PREVENTED MUCH OF THE STATE FROM REACHING
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...FARTHER E READINGS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 70S HAVE TRIGGERED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MAINE. FOR NOW THE STORMS ARE STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN MUCH
HEIGHT...BUT WITH TIME COOLING ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED
UPDRAFT GROWTH. EXPECT THAT CAPE WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 1000 J/KG
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT ADEQUATE SHEAR WILL HELP TO KEEP SOME
ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION. A FEW LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND
REPORTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. SO FAR THE MAIN FORCING WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PRODUCED A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT AND SMALL HAIL. THOUGH
ONE CELL BRIEFLY ATTAINED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE LINE AND MANAGED TO PRODUCE 1 INCH HAIL. FEEL
THAT THIS IS A FAIRLY GOOD REPRESENTATION OF WHAT WE CAN EXPECT
ACROSS NH AND THEN MAINE THIS EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL IN THE GRIDS UNTIL 01 OR 02Z.

VARIOUS CONVECTIVE TOOLS...INCLUDING SPC SSEO AND HI-RES
MODELS...RAPIDLY WEAKEN STORMS AFTER SUNSET. POP FORECAST DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACCORDINGLY. EXPECTING THAT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG
OCCURS INLAND...WITH COASTAL FOG/STRATUS RELOADING FROM THE
MIDCOAST DOWN TO KPWM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL COLD POOL REMAINS ALOFT AT H5 ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A LARGER CAP THAN TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP A LID ON ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM...PRECLUDING ANY SEVERE
THREAT. ALSO LIGHTNING PROBABLY WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY
EITHER...SO HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCE OF TSTMS DOWN.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE RIDING UP THE EAST COAST
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE S. SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THRU SUNRISE...BUT HAVE SOME LOW CHANCE POP
SNEAKING INTO SOUTHERN NH BY 12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STORY OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION... WITH THE NORTHEAST BEING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. SEVERAL MINOR WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOSTLY DURING PEAK HEATING. COOL AIR ALOFT ALSO KEEPS THE
ATMOSPHERE WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS THE SUN WARMS THE LOW
LEVELS. THE RESULT IS THAT THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK GETS PRETTY REDUNDANT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT EVERY AFTERNOON... MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS... WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY... SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS WEAK SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED.

A SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY... WITH A
POSSIBLE SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH AS WELL. THIS WILL BRING
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
ENTIRE AREA. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE... AND AS SUCH... THE NAM WIND FIELDS WOULD INDICATE SOME
PRETTY GOOD LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. SO ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THE
WARM FRONT COULD SEE A WEAK SPIN UP... BUT THE OVERALL THREAT WILL
REMAIN LOW ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT SHOW AS
DRAMATIC OF A WARM FRONT.

GREAT LAKES TROUGH BECOMES BROADER AND LESS AMPLIFIED MONDAY...
BUT WILL STILL SEE THE DIURNAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS TREND CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AND THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY END AFTER
SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING. ANY VFR WILL BE SHORT LIVED
THOUGH...AS VALLEY FOG WILL BE QUICK TO SET IN WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY INTO THE MIDCOAST
BY 03Z. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...LINGERING
INTO MID MORNING FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
ACROSS NH. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS MAY BEGIN TO
WORK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. NOCTURNAL FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT GRAZE THE WATERS WILL WEAKEN
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. SUB- SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU
FRIDAY...HOWEVER AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...KIMBLE/LEGRO
MARINE...KIMBLE/LEGRO






000
FXUS61 KBOX 311807
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
207 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THE WEEKEND
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER CONTINUES.  SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHERN
 NH AND NORTHERN TIER OF MA***

2 PM UPDATE...
POTENT SHORT WAVE CROSSING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME. THIS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM NEAR ALBANY UP THROUGH VT...THIS BAND OF CONVECTION HAS
HELD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS BAND WILL LIKELY GO THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE CONVECTION
POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF MA. CAPE AROUND
1000 J/KG AND 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR 35 TO 40 KTS. THE STORMS COULD BRING
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH THE PROBABLE EXCEPTION
OF SOUTH COASTAL LOCALES. CAN/T RULE OUT LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL...AS CAPE AND WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE COMPARABLE TO THOSE
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SHORT WAVE.

MID LEVEL TEMPS BEGIN WARMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE
SHORT WAVE PULLS TO THE NORTH. SO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET.

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.  LOW
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY...

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 80S.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF I-95.  SHEAR IS LESS THAN TODAY AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE NOT NEARLY
AS COLD...SO STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE WEAKER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND
ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND.  THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO
THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...ONLY ON THE SOUTH COAST OR ANYWHERE IN
BETWEEN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COOLER
BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THIS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MA...ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWEHRE. THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED BRIEF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN
BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH A SEA
BREEZE BRIEFLY MOVED INTO KBOS EARLIER TODAY...SW WINDS HAVE
STRENGTHENED SOMEWHAT AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PREVAILING WIND
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON. CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF WIND SHIFTS TO
THE SE PRIOR TO SUNSET. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM
MOVING OVER THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT
A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WATERS.  RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A WAVERING
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG/NMB
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG/NMB
MARINE...BELK/FRANK/RLG/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 311807
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
207 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THE WEEKEND
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER CONTINUES.  SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHERN
 NH AND NORTHERN TIER OF MA***

2 PM UPDATE...
POTENT SHORT WAVE CROSSING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME. THIS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM NEAR ALBANY UP THROUGH VT...THIS BAND OF CONVECTION HAS
HELD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS BAND WILL LIKELY GO THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE CONVECTION
POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF MA. CAPE AROUND
1000 J/KG AND 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR 35 TO 40 KTS. THE STORMS COULD BRING
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH THE PROBABLE EXCEPTION
OF SOUTH COASTAL LOCALES. CAN/T RULE OUT LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL...AS CAPE AND WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE COMPARABLE TO THOSE
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SHORT WAVE.

MID LEVEL TEMPS BEGIN WARMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE
SHORT WAVE PULLS TO THE NORTH. SO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET.

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.  LOW
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY...

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 80S.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF I-95.  SHEAR IS LESS THAN TODAY AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE NOT NEARLY
AS COLD...SO STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE WEAKER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND
ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND.  THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO
THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...ONLY ON THE SOUTH COAST OR ANYWHERE IN
BETWEEN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COOLER
BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THIS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MA...ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWEHRE. THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED BRIEF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN
BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH A SEA
BREEZE BRIEFLY MOVED INTO KBOS EARLIER TODAY...SW WINDS HAVE
STRENGTHENED SOMEWHAT AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PREVAILING WIND
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON. CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF WIND SHIFTS TO
THE SE PRIOR TO SUNSET. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM
MOVING OVER THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT
A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WATERS.  RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A WAVERING
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG/NMB
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG/NMB
MARINE...BELK/FRANK/RLG/NMB




000
FXUS61 KGYX 311430 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1030 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL STALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AND
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...CLOUD COVER LEADING THE APPROACHING S/WV TROF WILL
INHIBIT MAX HEATING POTENTIAL ACROSS WRN NH TODAY. HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPS ACCORDINGLY. THAT BEING SAID...VIGOROUS S/WV WILL STILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME SEVERE WX. ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS. SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
ALREADY OCCURRING IN ERN NY...AND FURTHER DAYTIME
HEATING...HOWEVER MINIMAL...WILL ONLY LEAD TO CONTINUED
DESTABILIZATION. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE PLACEMENT OF FORCING THIS MORNING...SO HAVE BLENDED IN THE
LATEST RUNS TO THE TODAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUSLY...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY REVOLVES AROUND THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

CAPE VALES ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LOW TODAY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 500-800 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...THE
APPROACH OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT ANOMALOUSLY
LOW MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /500MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -17C/ AND STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDELY SCT
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
MIXING OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
SHOULD BE AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS
PUSH INTO THE 70S. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. IN
ADDITION...SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH SUCH
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

SEVERAL MODES OF CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS LIKELY ALONG WITH A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIATE AROUND MIDDAY...WITH FIRST PREFERENCE GIVEN
TO NH AS THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THAT AREA OF THE CWA FIRST. HOWEVER...A FEW
CELLS MAY INITIATE IN MAINE AROUND THAT TIME ALONG SUBTLE
CONVERGENCE ZONES AND IN AREAS OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TODAY.

EARLY ON IN THE MORNING...STRATUS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE
PRESENT IN RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE CWA NORTHEAST OF
PORTLAND. THIS SHOULD LIFT EARLY ON THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE QUICKLY EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE BULK OF THE NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIR...WITH AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING
LATE.

ON FRIDAY...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN. THIS WILL ACT IN TANDEM
WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL SFC FLOW TO AID IN A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TODAY AND ISN/T EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. JUST LOW CHANCE POPS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL HANG UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. NET RESULT WILL BE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. STILL APPEARS ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

MAIN QUESTION WILL BE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AFFECTING THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP
THE ACTIVITY OFFSHORE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE WET SATURDAY SCENARIO...SO PLACED
THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE WEEKEND ON SAT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS A BIT LOW AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF
TO THE EAST AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS COOL SUMMER WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO VFR AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. RKD MAY HOLD ONTO IFR
LONGER...PERHAPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LOWER
CONDITIONS...GUSTY SFC WINDS...AND HAIL. LOWER CONDITIONS MAY ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN SOME FOG AND STRATUS...BUT CHANCES
APPEAR LOWER THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING EARLY THIS MORNING. FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY VFR WITH SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE PRESENT FROM TIME TO
TIME...ESPECIALLY OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON TODAY.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO







000
FXUS61 KBOX 311401
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1001 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THE WEEKEND
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER CONTINUES.  SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTHWEST
  OF I-95***

10 AM UPDATE...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FALLING OUT OF
MID DECK CLOUDS CROSSING INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND POPS A BIT EASTWARD...OTHERWISE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIO FOLLOWS.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILLS MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
WHILE THE BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME IMPACT...AT LEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG
WILL COMBINED WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 45
KNOTS.  IN ADDITION...500 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -16C IN OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES...WHICH IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EXPECT TO SEE A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
NORTHWEST OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE ABOVE PARAMETERS.
HIGHEST RISK FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHERN NH
BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM.  WE ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS SOMETIMES THESE COLD POOLS CAN OVER
PERFORM...DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.   MEANWHILE...EXPECT THE
WEATHER TO GENERALLY REMAIN DRY SOUTHEAST OF I-95 AS THOSE LOCATIONS
WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE BULK OF THE FORCING.

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.  LOW
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY...

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 80S.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF I-95.  SHEAR IS LESS THAN TODAY AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE NOT NEARLY
AS COLD...SO STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE WEAKER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND
ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND.  THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO
THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...ONLY ON THE SOUTH COAST OR ANYWHERE IN
BETWEEN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COOLER
BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF I-95 WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHWEST
MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN
BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT A SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON.  VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WATERS.  RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A WAVERING
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG/NMB
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG/NMB
MARINE...FRANK/RLG/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 311401
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1001 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THE WEEKEND
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER CONTINUES.  SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTHWEST
  OF I-95***

10 AM UPDATE...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FALLING OUT OF
MID DECK CLOUDS CROSSING INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND POPS A BIT EASTWARD...OTHERWISE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIO FOLLOWS.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILLS MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
WHILE THE BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME IMPACT...AT LEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG
WILL COMBINED WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 45
KNOTS.  IN ADDITION...500 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -16C IN OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES...WHICH IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EXPECT TO SEE A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
NORTHWEST OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE ABOVE PARAMETERS.
HIGHEST RISK FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHERN NH
BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM.  WE ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS SOMETIMES THESE COLD POOLS CAN OVER
PERFORM...DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.   MEANWHILE...EXPECT THE
WEATHER TO GENERALLY REMAIN DRY SOUTHEAST OF I-95 AS THOSE LOCATIONS
WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE BULK OF THE FORCING.

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.  LOW
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY...

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 80S.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF I-95.  SHEAR IS LESS THAN TODAY AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE NOT NEARLY
AS COLD...SO STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE WEAKER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND
ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND.  THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO
THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...ONLY ON THE SOUTH COAST OR ANYWHERE IN
BETWEEN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COOLER
BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF I-95 WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHWEST
MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN
BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT A SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON.  VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WATERS.  RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A WAVERING
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG/NMB
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG/NMB
MARINE...FRANK/RLG/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 311401
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1001 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THE WEEKEND
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER CONTINUES.  SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTHWEST
  OF I-95***

10 AM UPDATE...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FALLING OUT OF
MID DECK CLOUDS CROSSING INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND POPS A BIT EASTWARD...OTHERWISE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIO FOLLOWS.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILLS MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
WHILE THE BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME IMPACT...AT LEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG
WILL COMBINED WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 45
KNOTS.  IN ADDITION...500 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -16C IN OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES...WHICH IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EXPECT TO SEE A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
NORTHWEST OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE ABOVE PARAMETERS.
HIGHEST RISK FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHERN NH
BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM.  WE ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS SOMETIMES THESE COLD POOLS CAN OVER
PERFORM...DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.   MEANWHILE...EXPECT THE
WEATHER TO GENERALLY REMAIN DRY SOUTHEAST OF I-95 AS THOSE LOCATIONS
WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE BULK OF THE FORCING.

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.  LOW
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY...

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 80S.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF I-95.  SHEAR IS LESS THAN TODAY AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE NOT NEARLY
AS COLD...SO STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE WEAKER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND
ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND.  THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO
THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...ONLY ON THE SOUTH COAST OR ANYWHERE IN
BETWEEN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COOLER
BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF I-95 WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHWEST
MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN
BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT A SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON.  VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WATERS.  RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A WAVERING
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG/NMB
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG/NMB
MARINE...FRANK/RLG/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 311401
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1001 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THE WEEKEND
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER CONTINUES.  SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTHWEST
  OF I-95***

10 AM UPDATE...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FALLING OUT OF
MID DECK CLOUDS CROSSING INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND POPS A BIT EASTWARD...OTHERWISE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIO FOLLOWS.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILLS MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
WHILE THE BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME IMPACT...AT LEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG
WILL COMBINED WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 45
KNOTS.  IN ADDITION...500 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -16C IN OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES...WHICH IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EXPECT TO SEE A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
NORTHWEST OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE ABOVE PARAMETERS.
HIGHEST RISK FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHERN NH
BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM.  WE ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS SOMETIMES THESE COLD POOLS CAN OVER
PERFORM...DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.   MEANWHILE...EXPECT THE
WEATHER TO GENERALLY REMAIN DRY SOUTHEAST OF I-95 AS THOSE LOCATIONS
WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE BULK OF THE FORCING.

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.  LOW
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY...

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 80S.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF I-95.  SHEAR IS LESS THAN TODAY AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE NOT NEARLY
AS COLD...SO STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE WEAKER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND
ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND.  THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO
THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...ONLY ON THE SOUTH COAST OR ANYWHERE IN
BETWEEN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COOLER
BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF I-95 WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHWEST
MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN
BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT A SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON.  VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WATERS.  RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A WAVERING
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG/NMB
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG/NMB
MARINE...FRANK/RLG/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 311108
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
708 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THE WEEKEND
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER CONTINUES.  SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTHWEST
  OF I-95***

7 AM UPDATE...A FEW PATCHES OF FOG THIS MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF AS
TEMPERATURES WARM. MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS INCLUDING A QUICKER INCREASING OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILLS MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
WHILE THE BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME IMPACT...AT LEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG
WILL COMBINED WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 45
KNOTS.  IN ADDITION...500 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -16C IN OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES...WHICH IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EXPECT TO SEE A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
NORTHWEST OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE ABOVE PARAMETERS.
HIGHEST RISK FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHERN NH
BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM.  WE ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS SOMETIMES THESE COLD POOLS CAN OVER
PERFORM...DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.   MEANWHILE...EXPECT THE
WEATHER TO GENERALLY REMAIN DRY SOUTHEAST OF I-95 AS THOSE LOCATIONS
WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE BULK OF THE FORCING.

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.  LOW
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY...

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 80S.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF I-95.  SHEAR IS LESS THAN TODAY AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE NOT NEARLY
AS COLD...SO STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE WEAKER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND
ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND.  THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO
THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...ONLY ON THE SOUTH COAST OR ANYWHERE IN
BETWEEN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COOLER
BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF I-95 WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHWEST
MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN
BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT A SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON.  VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WATERS.  RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A WAVERING
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/FRANK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 311108
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
708 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THE WEEKEND
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER CONTINUES.  SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTHWEST
  OF I-95***

7 AM UPDATE...A FEW PATCHES OF FOG THIS MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF AS
TEMPERATURES WARM. MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS INCLUDING A QUICKER INCREASING OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILLS MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
WHILE THE BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME IMPACT...AT LEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG
WILL COMBINED WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 45
KNOTS.  IN ADDITION...500 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -16C IN OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES...WHICH IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EXPECT TO SEE A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
NORTHWEST OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE ABOVE PARAMETERS.
HIGHEST RISK FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHERN NH
BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM.  WE ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS SOMETIMES THESE COLD POOLS CAN OVER
PERFORM...DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.   MEANWHILE...EXPECT THE
WEATHER TO GENERALLY REMAIN DRY SOUTHEAST OF I-95 AS THOSE LOCATIONS
WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE BULK OF THE FORCING.

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.  LOW
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY...

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 80S.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF I-95.  SHEAR IS LESS THAN TODAY AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE NOT NEARLY
AS COLD...SO STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE WEAKER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND
ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND.  THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO
THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...ONLY ON THE SOUTH COAST OR ANYWHERE IN
BETWEEN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COOLER
BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF I-95 WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHWEST
MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN
BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT A SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON.  VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WATERS.  RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A WAVERING
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KGYX 311103
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
703 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL STALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AND
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. DENSE FOG STILL
PRESENT IN A LOT OF AREAS AND THEREFORE THE ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL 9 AM.

530 AM UPDATE...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR CUMBERLAND
COUNTY ON NORTHEAST. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO A 1/4 MILE AT
MANY LOCATIONS. THE FOG SHOULD THIN AND LIFT BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM.

PREVIOUSLY...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY REVOLVES AROUND THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

CAPE VALES ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LOW TODAY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 500-800 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...THE
APPROACH OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT ANOMALOUSLY
LOW MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /500MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -17C/ AND STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDELY SCT
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
MIXING OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
SHOULD BE AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS
PUSH INTO THE 70S. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. IN
ADDITION...SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH SUCH
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

SEVERAL MODES OF CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS LIKELY ALONG WITH A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIATE AROUND MIDDAY...WITH FIRST PREFERENCE GIVEN
TO NH AS THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THAT AREA OF THE CWA FIRST. HOWEVER...A FEW
CELLS MAY INITIATE IN MAINE AROUND THAT TIME ALONG SUBTLE
CONVERGENCE ZONES AND IN AREAS OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TODAY.

EARLY ON IN THE MORNING...STRATUS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE
PRESENT IN RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE CWA NORTHEAST OF
PORTLAND. THIS SHOULD LIFT EARLY ON THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE QUICKLY EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE BULK OF THE NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIR...WITH AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING
LATE.

ON FRIDAY...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN. THIS WILL ACT IN TANDEM
WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL SFC FLOW TO AID IN A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TODAY AND ISN/T EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. JUST LOW CHANCE POPS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL HANG UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. NET RESULT WILL BE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. STILL APPEARS ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

MAIN QUESTION WILL BE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AFFECTING THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP
THE ACTIVITY OFFSHORE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE WET SATURDAY SCENARIO...SO PLACED
THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE WEEKEND ON SAT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS A BIT LOW AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF
TO THE EAST AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS COOL SUMMER WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO VFR AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. RKD MAY HOLD ONTO IFR
LONGER...PERHAPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LOWER
CONDITIONS...GUSTY SFC WINDS...AND HAIL. LOWER CONDITIONS MAY ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN SOME FOG AND STRATUS...BUT CHANCES
APPEAR LOWER THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING EARLY THIS MORNING. FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY VFR WITH SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE PRESENT FROM TIME TO
TIME...ESPECIALLY OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON TODAY.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ012>014-
     019>022-024>028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLE






000
FXUS61 KGYX 311103
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
703 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL STALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AND
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. DENSE FOG STILL
PRESENT IN A LOT OF AREAS AND THEREFORE THE ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL 9 AM.

530 AM UPDATE...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR CUMBERLAND
COUNTY ON NORTHEAST. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO A 1/4 MILE AT
MANY LOCATIONS. THE FOG SHOULD THIN AND LIFT BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM.

PREVIOUSLY...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY REVOLVES AROUND THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

CAPE VALES ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LOW TODAY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 500-800 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...THE
APPROACH OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT ANOMALOUSLY
LOW MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /500MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -17C/ AND STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDELY SCT
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
MIXING OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
SHOULD BE AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS
PUSH INTO THE 70S. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. IN
ADDITION...SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH SUCH
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

SEVERAL MODES OF CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS LIKELY ALONG WITH A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIATE AROUND MIDDAY...WITH FIRST PREFERENCE GIVEN
TO NH AS THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THAT AREA OF THE CWA FIRST. HOWEVER...A FEW
CELLS MAY INITIATE IN MAINE AROUND THAT TIME ALONG SUBTLE
CONVERGENCE ZONES AND IN AREAS OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TODAY.

EARLY ON IN THE MORNING...STRATUS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE
PRESENT IN RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE CWA NORTHEAST OF
PORTLAND. THIS SHOULD LIFT EARLY ON THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE QUICKLY EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE BULK OF THE NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIR...WITH AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING
LATE.

ON FRIDAY...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN. THIS WILL ACT IN TANDEM
WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL SFC FLOW TO AID IN A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TODAY AND ISN/T EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. JUST LOW CHANCE POPS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL HANG UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. NET RESULT WILL BE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. STILL APPEARS ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

MAIN QUESTION WILL BE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AFFECTING THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP
THE ACTIVITY OFFSHORE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE WET SATURDAY SCENARIO...SO PLACED
THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE WEEKEND ON SAT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS A BIT LOW AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF
TO THE EAST AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS COOL SUMMER WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO VFR AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. RKD MAY HOLD ONTO IFR
LONGER...PERHAPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LOWER
CONDITIONS...GUSTY SFC WINDS...AND HAIL. LOWER CONDITIONS MAY ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN SOME FOG AND STRATUS...BUT CHANCES
APPEAR LOWER THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING EARLY THIS MORNING. FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY VFR WITH SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE PRESENT FROM TIME TO
TIME...ESPECIALLY OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON TODAY.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ012>014-
     019>022-024>028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLE







000
FXUS61 KGYX 310936
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
536 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL STALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AND
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
530 AM UPDATE...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR CUMBERLAND
COUNTY ON NORTHEAST. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO A 1/4 MILE AT
MANY LOCATIONS. THE FOG SHOULD THIN AND LIFT BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM.

PREVIOUSLY...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY REVOLVES AROUND THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

CAPE VALES ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LOW TODAY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 500-800 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...THE
APPROACH OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT ANOMALOUSLY
LOW MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /500MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -17C/ AND STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDELY SCT
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
MIXING OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
SHOULD BE AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS
PUSH INTO THE 70S. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. IN
ADDITION...SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH SUCH
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

SEVERAL MODES OF CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS LIKELY ALONG WITH A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIATE AROUND MIDDAY...WITH FIRST PREFERENCE GIVEN
TO NH AS THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THAT AREA OF THE CWA FIRST. HOWEVER...A FEW
CELLS MAY INITIATE IN MAINE AROUND THAT TIME ALONG SUBTLE
CONVERGENCE ZONES AND IN AREAS OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TODAY.

EARLY ON IN THE MORNING...STRATUS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE
PRESENT IN RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE CWA NORTHEAST OF
PORTLAND. THIS SHOULD LIFT EARLY ON THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE QUICKLY EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE BULK OF THE NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIR...WITH AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING
LATE.

ON FRIDAY...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN. THIS WILL ACT IN TANDEM
WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL SFC FLOW TO AID IN A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TODAY AND ISN/T EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. JUST LOW CHANCE POPS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL HANG UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. NET RESULT WILL BE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. STILL APPEARS ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

MAIN QUESTION WILL BE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AFFECTING THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP
THE ACTIVITY OFFSHORE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE WET SATURDAY SCENARIO...SO PLACED
THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE WEEKEND ON SAT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS A BIT LOW AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF
TO THE EAST AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS COOL SUMMER WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO VFR AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. RKD MAY HOLD ONTO IFR
LONGER...PERHAPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LOWER
CONDITIONS...GUSTY SFC WINDS...AND HAIL. LOWER CONDITIONS MAY ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN SOME FOG AND STRATUS...BUT CHANCES
APPEAR LOWER THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING EARLY THIS MORNING. FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY VFR WITH SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE PRESENT FROM TIME TO
TIME...ESPECIALLY OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON TODAY.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ012>014-
     019>022-024>028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLE





000
FXUS61 KGYX 310936
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
536 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL STALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AND
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
530 AM UPDATE...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR CUMBERLAND
COUNTY ON NORTHEAST. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO A 1/4 MILE AT
MANY LOCATIONS. THE FOG SHOULD THIN AND LIFT BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM.

PREVIOUSLY...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY REVOLVES AROUND THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

CAPE VALES ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LOW TODAY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 500-800 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...THE
APPROACH OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT ANOMALOUSLY
LOW MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /500MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -17C/ AND STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDELY SCT
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
MIXING OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
SHOULD BE AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS
PUSH INTO THE 70S. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. IN
ADDITION...SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH SUCH
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

SEVERAL MODES OF CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS LIKELY ALONG WITH A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIATE AROUND MIDDAY...WITH FIRST PREFERENCE GIVEN
TO NH AS THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THAT AREA OF THE CWA FIRST. HOWEVER...A FEW
CELLS MAY INITIATE IN MAINE AROUND THAT TIME ALONG SUBTLE
CONVERGENCE ZONES AND IN AREAS OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TODAY.

EARLY ON IN THE MORNING...STRATUS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE
PRESENT IN RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE CWA NORTHEAST OF
PORTLAND. THIS SHOULD LIFT EARLY ON THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE QUICKLY EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE BULK OF THE NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIR...WITH AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING
LATE.

ON FRIDAY...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN. THIS WILL ACT IN TANDEM
WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL SFC FLOW TO AID IN A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TODAY AND ISN/T EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. JUST LOW CHANCE POPS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL HANG UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. NET RESULT WILL BE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. STILL APPEARS ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

MAIN QUESTION WILL BE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AFFECTING THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP
THE ACTIVITY OFFSHORE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE WET SATURDAY SCENARIO...SO PLACED
THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE WEEKEND ON SAT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS A BIT LOW AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF
TO THE EAST AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS COOL SUMMER WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO VFR AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. RKD MAY HOLD ONTO IFR
LONGER...PERHAPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LOWER
CONDITIONS...GUSTY SFC WINDS...AND HAIL. LOWER CONDITIONS MAY ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN SOME FOG AND STRATUS...BUT CHANCES
APPEAR LOWER THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING EARLY THIS MORNING. FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY VFR WITH SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE PRESENT FROM TIME TO
TIME...ESPECIALLY OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON TODAY.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ012>014-
     019>022-024>028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLE




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310758
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
358 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THE WEEKEND
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER CONTINUES.  SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTHWEST
  OF I-95***

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILLS MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
WHILE THE BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME IMPACT...AT LEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG
WILL COMBINED WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 45
KNOTS.  IN ADDITION...500 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -16C IN OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES...WHICH IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EXPECT TO SEE A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
NORTHWEST OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE ABOVE PARAMETERS.
HIGHEST RISK FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHERN NH
BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM.  WE ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS SOMETIMES THESE COLD POOLS CAN OVER
PERFORM...DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.   MEANWHILE...EXPECT THE
WEATHER TO GENERALLY REMAIN DRY SOUTHEAST OF I-95 AS THOSE LOCATIONS
WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE BULK OF THE FORCING.

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.  LOW
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY...

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 80S.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF I-95.  SHEAR IS LESS THAN TODAY AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE NOT NEARLY
AS COLD...SO STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE WEAKER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND
ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND.  THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO
THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...ONLY ON THE SOUTH COAST OR ANYWHERE IN
BETWEEN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COOLER
BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE
NORTHWEST OF I-95 WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHWEST
MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN
BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT A SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON.  VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WATERS.  RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A WAVERING
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310758
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
358 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THE WEEKEND
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER CONTINUES.  SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTHWEST
  OF I-95***

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILLS MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
WHILE THE BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME IMPACT...AT LEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG
WILL COMBINED WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 45
KNOTS.  IN ADDITION...500 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -16C IN OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES...WHICH IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EXPECT TO SEE A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
NORTHWEST OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE ABOVE PARAMETERS.
HIGHEST RISK FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHERN NH
BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM.  WE ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS SOMETIMES THESE COLD POOLS CAN OVER
PERFORM...DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.   MEANWHILE...EXPECT THE
WEATHER TO GENERALLY REMAIN DRY SOUTHEAST OF I-95 AS THOSE LOCATIONS
WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE BULK OF THE FORCING.

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.  LOW
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY...

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 80S.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF I-95.  SHEAR IS LESS THAN TODAY AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE NOT NEARLY
AS COLD...SO STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE WEAKER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND
ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND.  THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO
THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...ONLY ON THE SOUTH COAST OR ANYWHERE IN
BETWEEN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COOLER
BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE
NORTHWEST OF I-95 WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHWEST
MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN
BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT A SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON.  VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WATERS.  RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A WAVERING
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/FRANK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KGYX 310751
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
351 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL STALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AND
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY REVOLVES AROUND THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

CAPE VALES ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LOW TODAY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 500-800 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...THE
APPROACH OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT ANOMALOUSLY
LOW MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /500MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -17C/ AND STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDELY SCT
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
MIXING OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
SHOULD BE AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS
PUSH INTO THE 70S. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. IN
ADDITION...SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH SUCH
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

SEVERAL MODES OF CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS LIKELY ALONG WITH A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIATE AROUND MIDDAY...WITH FIRST PREFERENCE GIVEN
TO NH AS THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THAT AREA OF THE CWA FIRST. HOWEVER...A FEW
CELLS MAY INITIATE IN MAINE AROUND THAT TIME ALONG SUBTLE
CONVERGENCE ZONES AND IN AREAS OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TODAY.

EARLY ON IN THE MORNING...STRATUS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE
PRESENT IN RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE CWA NORTHEAST OF
PORTLAND. THIS SHOULD LIFT EARLY ON THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE QUICKLY EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE BULK OF THE NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIR...WITH AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING
LATE.

ON FRIDAY...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN. THIS WILL ACT IN TANDEM
WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL SFC FLOW TO AID IN A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TODAY AND ISN/T EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. JUST LOW CHANCE POPS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL HANG UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. NET RESULT WILL BE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. STILL APPEARS ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

MAIN QUESTION WILL BE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AFFECTING THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP
THE ACTIVITY OFFSHORE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE WET SATURDAY SCENARIO...SO PLACED
THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE WEEKEND ON SAT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS A BIT LOW AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF
TO THE EAST AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS COOL SUMMER WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO VFR AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. RKD MAY HOLD ONTO IFR
LONGER...PERHAPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LOWER
CONDITIONS...GUSTY SFC WINDS...AND HAIL. LOWER CONDITIONS MAY ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN SOME FOG AND STRATUS...BUT CHANCES
APPEAR LOWER THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING EARLY THIS MORNING. FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY VFR WITH SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE PRESENT FROM TIME TO
TIME...ESPECIALLY OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON TODAY.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...MLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 310751
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
351 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL STALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AND
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY REVOLVES AROUND THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

CAPE VALES ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LOW TODAY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 500-800 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...THE
APPROACH OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT ANOMALOUSLY
LOW MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /500MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -17C/ AND STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDELY SCT
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
MIXING OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
SHOULD BE AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS
PUSH INTO THE 70S. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. IN
ADDITION...SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH SUCH
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

SEVERAL MODES OF CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS LIKELY ALONG WITH A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIATE AROUND MIDDAY...WITH FIRST PREFERENCE GIVEN
TO NH AS THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THAT AREA OF THE CWA FIRST. HOWEVER...A FEW
CELLS MAY INITIATE IN MAINE AROUND THAT TIME ALONG SUBTLE
CONVERGENCE ZONES AND IN AREAS OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TODAY.

EARLY ON IN THE MORNING...STRATUS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE
PRESENT IN RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE CWA NORTHEAST OF
PORTLAND. THIS SHOULD LIFT EARLY ON THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE QUICKLY EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE BULK OF THE NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIR...WITH AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING
LATE.

ON FRIDAY...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN. THIS WILL ACT IN TANDEM
WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL SFC FLOW TO AID IN A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TODAY AND ISN/T EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. JUST LOW CHANCE POPS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL HANG UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. NET RESULT WILL BE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. STILL APPEARS ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

MAIN QUESTION WILL BE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AFFECTING THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP
THE ACTIVITY OFFSHORE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE WET SATURDAY SCENARIO...SO PLACED
THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE WEEKEND ON SAT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS A BIT LOW AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF
TO THE EAST AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS COOL SUMMER WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO VFR AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. RKD MAY HOLD ONTO IFR
LONGER...PERHAPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LOWER
CONDITIONS...GUSTY SFC WINDS...AND HAIL. LOWER CONDITIONS MAY ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN SOME FOG AND STRATUS...BUT CHANCES
APPEAR LOWER THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING EARLY THIS MORNING. FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY VFR WITH SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE PRESENT FROM TIME TO
TIME...ESPECIALLY OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON TODAY.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...MLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 310751
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
351 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL STALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AND
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY REVOLVES AROUND THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

CAPE VALES ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LOW TODAY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 500-800 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...THE
APPROACH OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT ANOMALOUSLY
LOW MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /500MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -17C/ AND STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDELY SCT
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
MIXING OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
SHOULD BE AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS
PUSH INTO THE 70S. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. IN
ADDITION...SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH SUCH
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

SEVERAL MODES OF CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS LIKELY ALONG WITH A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIATE AROUND MIDDAY...WITH FIRST PREFERENCE GIVEN
TO NH AS THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THAT AREA OF THE CWA FIRST. HOWEVER...A FEW
CELLS MAY INITIATE IN MAINE AROUND THAT TIME ALONG SUBTLE
CONVERGENCE ZONES AND IN AREAS OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TODAY.

EARLY ON IN THE MORNING...STRATUS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE
PRESENT IN RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE CWA NORTHEAST OF
PORTLAND. THIS SHOULD LIFT EARLY ON THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE QUICKLY EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE BULK OF THE NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIR...WITH AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING
LATE.

ON FRIDAY...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN. THIS WILL ACT IN TANDEM
WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL SFC FLOW TO AID IN A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TODAY AND ISN/T EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. JUST LOW CHANCE POPS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL HANG UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. NET RESULT WILL BE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. STILL APPEARS ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

MAIN QUESTION WILL BE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AFFECTING THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP
THE ACTIVITY OFFSHORE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE WET SATURDAY SCENARIO...SO PLACED
THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE WEEKEND ON SAT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS A BIT LOW AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF
TO THE EAST AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS COOL SUMMER WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO VFR AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. RKD MAY HOLD ONTO IFR
LONGER...PERHAPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LOWER
CONDITIONS...GUSTY SFC WINDS...AND HAIL. LOWER CONDITIONS MAY ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN SOME FOG AND STRATUS...BUT CHANCES
APPEAR LOWER THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING EARLY THIS MORNING. FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY VFR WITH SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE PRESENT FROM TIME TO
TIME...ESPECIALLY OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON TODAY.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...MLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 310751
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
351 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL STALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AND
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY REVOLVES AROUND THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

CAPE VALES ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LOW TODAY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 500-800 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...THE
APPROACH OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT ANOMALOUSLY
LOW MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /500MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -17C/ AND STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDELY SCT
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
MIXING OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
SHOULD BE AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS
PUSH INTO THE 70S. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. IN
ADDITION...SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH SUCH
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

SEVERAL MODES OF CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS LIKELY ALONG WITH A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIATE AROUND MIDDAY...WITH FIRST PREFERENCE GIVEN
TO NH AS THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THAT AREA OF THE CWA FIRST. HOWEVER...A FEW
CELLS MAY INITIATE IN MAINE AROUND THAT TIME ALONG SUBTLE
CONVERGENCE ZONES AND IN AREAS OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TODAY.

EARLY ON IN THE MORNING...STRATUS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE
PRESENT IN RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE CWA NORTHEAST OF
PORTLAND. THIS SHOULD LIFT EARLY ON THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE QUICKLY EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE BULK OF THE NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIR...WITH AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING
LATE.

ON FRIDAY...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN. THIS WILL ACT IN TANDEM
WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL SFC FLOW TO AID IN A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TODAY AND ISN/T EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. JUST LOW CHANCE POPS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL HANG UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. NET RESULT WILL BE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. STILL APPEARS ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

MAIN QUESTION WILL BE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AFFECTING THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP
THE ACTIVITY OFFSHORE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE WET SATURDAY SCENARIO...SO PLACED
THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE WEEKEND ON SAT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS A BIT LOW AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF
TO THE EAST AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS COOL SUMMER WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO VFR AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. RKD MAY HOLD ONTO IFR
LONGER...PERHAPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LOWER
CONDITIONS...GUSTY SFC WINDS...AND HAIL. LOWER CONDITIONS MAY ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN SOME FOG AND STRATUS...BUT CHANCES
APPEAR LOWER THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING EARLY THIS MORNING. FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY VFR WITH SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE PRESENT FROM TIME TO
TIME...ESPECIALLY OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON TODAY.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...MLE




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310746
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
345 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THE WEEKEND
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER CONTINUES.  SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTHWEST
  OF I-95***

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILLS MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
WHILE THE BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME IMPACT...AT LEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG
WILL COMBINED WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 45
KNOTS.  IN ADDITION...500 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -16C IN OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES...WHICH IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EXPECT TO SEE A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
NORTHWEST OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE ABOVE PARAMETERS.
HIGHEST RISK FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHERN NH
BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM.  WE ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS SOMETIMES THESE COLD POOLS CAN OVER
PERFORM...DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.   MEANWHILE...EXPECT THE
WEATHER TO GENERALLY REMAIN DRY SOUTHEAST OF I-95 AS THOSE LOCATIONS
WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE BULK OF THE FORCING.

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.  LOW
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY...

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 80S.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF I-95.  SHEAR IS LESS THAN TODAY AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE NOT NEARLY
AS COLD...SO STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE WEAKER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST. A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT.  OUT WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO TURN MORE
ZONAL BY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL
AGREEMENT TRENDED TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE. FOR CONFIDENCE LEVEL...HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT A LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...

MAIN FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WAS FOCUS ON THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT A SLUG OF RAIN WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING. OVERALL A STALLED FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AS A FEW WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION. APPEARS TO BE 2 DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS...THE
GFS/CANADIAN AND THE EC/ECENS/UKMET. THE GFS CAMP BRINGS THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ON SUNDAY WHILE THE EC CAMP BRINGS IT IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. OVERALL UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FLOW TO TAP INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
INCREASING THE PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...AND ALMOST 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AWAY. BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A GOOD 850 MB LLJ INTO
THE FLOW AT RESPECTIVE TIMES FOR HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR. ALSO BECAUSE
OF THE INCREASING LLJ CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT HEAVIER RAIN WILL OCCUR...JUST A
MATTER OF FINE TUNING THE TIMING OF WHEN IT WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

WORK WEEK...

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON
MONDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT ON TUESDAY AS FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION. HOWEVER TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM MAY CHANGE AS IT IS STILL 6-7
DAYS AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE
NORTHWEST OF I-95 WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHWEST
MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN
BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT A SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON.  VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS
EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA AND ISO THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS. BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING VSBY CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS/WINDS STILL BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 310746
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
345 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THE WEEKEND
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER CONTINUES.  SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTHWEST
  OF I-95***

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILLS MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
WHILE THE BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME IMPACT...AT LEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG
WILL COMBINED WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 45
KNOTS.  IN ADDITION...500 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -16C IN OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES...WHICH IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EXPECT TO SEE A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
NORTHWEST OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE ABOVE PARAMETERS.
HIGHEST RISK FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHERN NH
BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM.  WE ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS SOMETIMES THESE COLD POOLS CAN OVER
PERFORM...DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.   MEANWHILE...EXPECT THE
WEATHER TO GENERALLY REMAIN DRY SOUTHEAST OF I-95 AS THOSE LOCATIONS
WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE BULK OF THE FORCING.

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.  LOW
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY...

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 80S.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF I-95.  SHEAR IS LESS THAN TODAY AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE NOT NEARLY
AS COLD...SO STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE WEAKER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST. A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT.  OUT WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO TURN MORE
ZONAL BY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL
AGREEMENT TRENDED TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE. FOR CONFIDENCE LEVEL...HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT A LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...

MAIN FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WAS FOCUS ON THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT A SLUG OF RAIN WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING. OVERALL A STALLED FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AS A FEW WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION. APPEARS TO BE 2 DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS...THE
GFS/CANADIAN AND THE EC/ECENS/UKMET. THE GFS CAMP BRINGS THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ON SUNDAY WHILE THE EC CAMP BRINGS IT IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. OVERALL UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FLOW TO TAP INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
INCREASING THE PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...AND ALMOST 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AWAY. BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A GOOD 850 MB LLJ INTO
THE FLOW AT RESPECTIVE TIMES FOR HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR. ALSO BECAUSE
OF THE INCREASING LLJ CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT HEAVIER RAIN WILL OCCUR...JUST A
MATTER OF FINE TUNING THE TIMING OF WHEN IT WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

WORK WEEK...

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON
MONDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT ON TUESDAY AS FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION. HOWEVER TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM MAY CHANGE AS IT IS STILL 6-7
DAYS AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE
NORTHWEST OF I-95 WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHWEST
MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN
BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT A SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON.  VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS
EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA AND ISO THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS. BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING VSBY CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS/WINDS STILL BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310545
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

145 AM UPDATE...

THE SHOWERS EARLIER THIS EVENING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE HAVE FALLEN
APART AND JUST A TOUCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS REMAINS. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH DAYBREAK. LIGHT
WINDS/RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO FALL
BACK MAINLY INTO THE 50S BY DAYBREAK...WITH LOWER 60S EXPECTED IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES...WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG...AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE CORE OF THE 500 MB
COLD POOL TEMPERATURES AROUND -18 TO -20C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH. WHILE INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL...THE COLD
POOL ALOFT AND ROBUST SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS.

INSTABILITY WEAKENS THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST. A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT.  OUT WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO TURN MORE
ZONAL BY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL
AGREEMENT TRENDED TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE. FOR CONFIDENCE LEVEL...HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT A LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO SEEP
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE
WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN. MODELS TRY TO PUSH OUT SOME QPF
BUT DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEELING AS HIGH PRESSURE OUT EAST BUILD
ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS. IN FACT SOME OF THE INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS MOVE WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO FOR NOW MENTIONED
JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...

MAIN FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WAS FOCUS ON THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT A SLUG OF RAIN WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING. OVERALL A STALLED FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AS A FEW WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION. APPEARS TO BE 2 DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS...THE
GFS/CANADIAN AND THE EC/ECENS/UKMET. THE GFS CAMP BRINGS THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ON SUNDAY WHILE THE EC CAMP BRINGS IT IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. OVERALL UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FLOW TO TAP INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
INCREASING THE PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...AND ALMOST 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AWAY. BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A GOOD 850 MB LLJ INTO
THE FLOW AT RESPECTIVE TIMES FOR HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR. ALSO BECAUSE
OF THE INCREASING LLJ CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT HEAVIER RAIN WILL OCCUR...JUST A
MATTER OF FINE TUNING THE TIMING OF WHEN IT WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

WORK WEEK...

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON
MONDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT ON TUESDAY AS FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION. HOWEVER TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM MAY CHANGE AS IT IS STILL 6-7
DAYS AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE
NORTHWEST OF I-95 WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHWEST
MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN
BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT A SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON.  VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER
THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS
EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA AND ISO THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH GOOD
VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FROM A
DISTANT OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE...
CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS. BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING VSBY CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS/WINDS STILL BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 310545
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

145 AM UPDATE...

THE SHOWERS EARLIER THIS EVENING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE HAVE FALLEN
APART AND JUST A TOUCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS REMAINS. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH DAYBREAK. LIGHT
WINDS/RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO FALL
BACK MAINLY INTO THE 50S BY DAYBREAK...WITH LOWER 60S EXPECTED IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES...WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG...AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE CORE OF THE 500 MB
COLD POOL TEMPERATURES AROUND -18 TO -20C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH. WHILE INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL...THE COLD
POOL ALOFT AND ROBUST SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS.

INSTABILITY WEAKENS THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST. A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT.  OUT WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO TURN MORE
ZONAL BY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL
AGREEMENT TRENDED TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE. FOR CONFIDENCE LEVEL...HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT A LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO SEEP
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE
WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN. MODELS TRY TO PUSH OUT SOME QPF
BUT DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEELING AS HIGH PRESSURE OUT EAST BUILD
ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS. IN FACT SOME OF THE INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS MOVE WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO FOR NOW MENTIONED
JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...

MAIN FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WAS FOCUS ON THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT A SLUG OF RAIN WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING. OVERALL A STALLED FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AS A FEW WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION. APPEARS TO BE 2 DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS...THE
GFS/CANADIAN AND THE EC/ECENS/UKMET. THE GFS CAMP BRINGS THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ON SUNDAY WHILE THE EC CAMP BRINGS IT IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. OVERALL UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FLOW TO TAP INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
INCREASING THE PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...AND ALMOST 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AWAY. BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A GOOD 850 MB LLJ INTO
THE FLOW AT RESPECTIVE TIMES FOR HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR. ALSO BECAUSE
OF THE INCREASING LLJ CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT HEAVIER RAIN WILL OCCUR...JUST A
MATTER OF FINE TUNING THE TIMING OF WHEN IT WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

WORK WEEK...

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON
MONDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT ON TUESDAY AS FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION. HOWEVER TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM MAY CHANGE AS IT IS STILL 6-7
DAYS AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE
NORTHWEST OF I-95 WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHWEST
MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN
BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT A SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON.  VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER
THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS
EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA AND ISO THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH GOOD
VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FROM A
DISTANT OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE...
CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS. BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING VSBY CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS/WINDS STILL BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310141
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
940 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

940 PM UPDATE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE BETTER FORCING/INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT.  WHILE WE MAY
SEE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE ACTIVITY...LIGHT WINDS/RELATIVELY
DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD STILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK INTO THE
50S IN MOST LOCALES WITH LOWER 60S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF
DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES...WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG...AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE CORE OF THE 500 MB
COLD POOL TEMPERATURES AROUND -18 TO -20C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH. WHILE INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL...THE COLD
POOL ALOFT AND ROBUST SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS.

INSTABILITY WEAKENS THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST. A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT.  OUT WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO TURN MORE
ZONAL BY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL
AGREEMENT TRENDED TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE. FOR CONFIDENCE LEVEL...HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT A LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO SEEP
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE
WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN. MODELS TRY TO PUSH OUT SOME QPF
BUT DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEELING AS HIGH PRESSURE OUT EAST BUILD
ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS. IN FACT SOME OF THE INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS MOVE WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO FOR NOW MENTIONED
JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...

MAIN FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WAS FOCUS ON THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT A SLUG OF RAIN WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING. OVERALL A STALLED FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AS A FEW WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION. APPEARS TO BE 2 DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS...THE
GFS/CANADIAN AND THE EC/ECENS/UKMET. THE GFS CAMP BRINGS THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ON SUNDAY WHILE THE EC CAMP BRINGS IT IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. OVERALL UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FLOW TO TAP INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
INCREASING THE PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...AND ALMOST 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AWAY. BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A GOOD 850 MB LLJ INTO
THE FLOW AT RESPECTIVE TIMES FOR HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR. ALSO BECAUSE
OF THE INCREASING LLJ CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT HEAVIER RAIN WILL OCCUR...JUST A
MATTER OF FINE TUNING THE TIMING OF WHEN IT WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

WORK WEEK...

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON
MONDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT ON TUESDAY AS FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION. HOWEVER TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM MAY CHANGE AS IT IS STILL 6-7
DAYS AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THROUGH 02Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE...UNCERTAIN ON THE TIMING.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...WITH LOCAL IFR
IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN END
TIME OF SEA BREEZE THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS
EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA AND ISO THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH GOOD
VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FROM A
DISTANT OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE...
CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS. BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING VSBY CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS/WINDS STILL BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 310141
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
940 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

940 PM UPDATE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE BETTER FORCING/INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT.  WHILE WE MAY
SEE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE ACTIVITY...LIGHT WINDS/RELATIVELY
DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD STILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK INTO THE
50S IN MOST LOCALES WITH LOWER 60S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF
DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES...WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG...AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE CORE OF THE 500 MB
COLD POOL TEMPERATURES AROUND -18 TO -20C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH. WHILE INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL...THE COLD
POOL ALOFT AND ROBUST SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS.

INSTABILITY WEAKENS THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST. A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT.  OUT WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO TURN MORE
ZONAL BY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL
AGREEMENT TRENDED TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE. FOR CONFIDENCE LEVEL...HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT A LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO SEEP
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE
WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN. MODELS TRY TO PUSH OUT SOME QPF
BUT DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEELING AS HIGH PRESSURE OUT EAST BUILD
ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS. IN FACT SOME OF THE INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS MOVE WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO FOR NOW MENTIONED
JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...

MAIN FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WAS FOCUS ON THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT A SLUG OF RAIN WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING. OVERALL A STALLED FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AS A FEW WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION. APPEARS TO BE 2 DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS...THE
GFS/CANADIAN AND THE EC/ECENS/UKMET. THE GFS CAMP BRINGS THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ON SUNDAY WHILE THE EC CAMP BRINGS IT IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. OVERALL UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FLOW TO TAP INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
INCREASING THE PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...AND ALMOST 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AWAY. BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A GOOD 850 MB LLJ INTO
THE FLOW AT RESPECTIVE TIMES FOR HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR. ALSO BECAUSE
OF THE INCREASING LLJ CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT HEAVIER RAIN WILL OCCUR...JUST A
MATTER OF FINE TUNING THE TIMING OF WHEN IT WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

WORK WEEK...

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON
MONDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT ON TUESDAY AS FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION. HOWEVER TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM MAY CHANGE AS IT IS STILL 6-7
DAYS AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THROUGH 02Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE...UNCERTAIN ON THE TIMING.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...WITH LOCAL IFR
IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN END
TIME OF SEA BREEZE THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS
EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA AND ISO THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH GOOD
VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FROM A
DISTANT OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE...
CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS. BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING VSBY CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS/WINDS STILL BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KGYX 310127 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
927 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY...PROVIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED THE SHOWERS TO
DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. OTHER CHANGES WERE
RELATIVELY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO TREND THINGS A
LITTLE COOLER MORE QUICKLY THIS EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOWER LVL CONVERGENCE AREA STILL PRODUCING
SOME SHRA OVER ERN ZONES AND LIFTING SLOWLY NE...WITH A LITTLE
LINE EXTENDING SSW. THESE WILL NOT MOVE TOO MUCH IN THE FEW HOURS
AND SHOULD DRIFT NNE...BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND 22-23Z.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AS SOME
WEAK RIDGING MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS ALOFT. SHOULD
BE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT...WITH LOWS DOWN INTO 50S MOST SPOTS AND 40S
IN THE COOLER MTN LOCATIONS...AND VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
USUAL SPOTS. MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS OR AC INCREASING IN THE WEST
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
500 MB WAVE SWINGS THRU ON THU...COINCIDENT WITH 500MB COLD
POOL...WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. THESE AREAS COULD SEE
A FAIR AMT OF SHOWERS WITH SCT TSRA. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WILL LKLY
SEE MORE SUN AND WARMER TEMPS...WITH LESS COVERAGE OF SHRA...BUT
MORE OF THE CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE THUNDER. SHOULD SEE SOME SMALL
HAIL...WITH AN OUTSIDE THREAT FOR LARGER HAIL IF UPDRAFTS CAN
PULSE UP ENOUGH AND HOLD A CORE UP FOR AWHILE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FRO AROUND 70 IN THE COOLER MTN SPOTS...TO THE UPPER 70S AND 80 ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THE WAVE EXITS JUST AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING...SO THE SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY DURING LATE AFT AND EARLY EVE...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AFTER SUNSET...AND ANOTHER NIGHT WITH TEMPS RUNNING
BLO NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS..,WHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S ONCE MORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST..ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE. FRIDAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY INITIALLY AND THIS ALONG WITH
+13 DEGREES C AT 850MB WILL BOOST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN A FEW DEGREES WITH
MORE CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOLOW
TRAVELING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE BOUNDARY MAY
BRIEFLY FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MORE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
NIGHT. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...OTHER THAN KRKD..SHOULD SEE VFR INTO THE EVENING AT
ALL THE TERMINALS...WITH VLY FOG DEVELIPING AT KHIE/KLEB...AND
MAYBE A LITTLE FOG AROUND SUNRISE AT KCON. KRKD IS EXPECTED TO STAY
IFR OR LOWER THRU THE NIGHT...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU MORNING.

SCT SHRA/TSRA COULD PRODUCE BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTION THU
AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING MVFR
OF LOWER CONDITIONS. ALSO EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG EACH MORNING
ESPECIALLY IN PLACES WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW OFFSHORE WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 3-5
FT RANGE AWAY FROM SHORE THU INTO THU NIGHT.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO







000
FXUS61 KGYX 310127 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
927 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY...PROVIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED THE SHOWERS TO
DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. OTHER CHANGES WERE
RELATIVELY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO TREND THINGS A
LITTLE COOLER MORE QUICKLY THIS EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOWER LVL CONVERGENCE AREA STILL PRODUCING
SOME SHRA OVER ERN ZONES AND LIFTING SLOWLY NE...WITH A LITTLE
LINE EXTENDING SSW. THESE WILL NOT MOVE TOO MUCH IN THE FEW HOURS
AND SHOULD DRIFT NNE...BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND 22-23Z.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AS SOME
WEAK RIDGING MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS ALOFT. SHOULD
BE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT...WITH LOWS DOWN INTO 50S MOST SPOTS AND 40S
IN THE COOLER MTN LOCATIONS...AND VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
USUAL SPOTS. MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS OR AC INCREASING IN THE WEST
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
500 MB WAVE SWINGS THRU ON THU...COINCIDENT WITH 500MB COLD
POOL...WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. THESE AREAS COULD SEE
A FAIR AMT OF SHOWERS WITH SCT TSRA. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WILL LKLY
SEE MORE SUN AND WARMER TEMPS...WITH LESS COVERAGE OF SHRA...BUT
MORE OF THE CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE THUNDER. SHOULD SEE SOME SMALL
HAIL...WITH AN OUTSIDE THREAT FOR LARGER HAIL IF UPDRAFTS CAN
PULSE UP ENOUGH AND HOLD A CORE UP FOR AWHILE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FRO AROUND 70 IN THE COOLER MTN SPOTS...TO THE UPPER 70S AND 80 ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THE WAVE EXITS JUST AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING...SO THE SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY DURING LATE AFT AND EARLY EVE...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AFTER SUNSET...AND ANOTHER NIGHT WITH TEMPS RUNNING
BLO NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS..,WHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S ONCE MORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST..ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE. FRIDAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY INITIALLY AND THIS ALONG WITH
+13 DEGREES C AT 850MB WILL BOOST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN A FEW DEGREES WITH
MORE CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOLOW
TRAVELING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE BOUNDARY MAY
BRIEFLY FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MORE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
NIGHT. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...OTHER THAN KRKD..SHOULD SEE VFR INTO THE EVENING AT
ALL THE TERMINALS...WITH VLY FOG DEVELIPING AT KHIE/KLEB...AND
MAYBE A LITTLE FOG AROUND SUNRISE AT KCON. KRKD IS EXPECTED TO STAY
IFR OR LOWER THRU THE NIGHT...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU MORNING.

SCT SHRA/TSRA COULD PRODUCE BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTION THU
AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING MVFR
OF LOWER CONDITIONS. ALSO EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG EACH MORNING
ESPECIALLY IN PLACES WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW OFFSHORE WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 3-5
FT RANGE AWAY FROM SHORE THU INTO THU NIGHT.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO






000
FXUS61 KBOX 302300
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

700 PM UPDATE...
DRY WEATHER TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TONIGHT
AFTER SUNSET AS LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL HEATING. HOWEVER CLOUD DEBRIS FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK
MAY LIMIT THIS IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE PATCHY FOG IN THE NORMAL PRONE REGION ACROSS THE
INTERIOR MAY DEVELOP LIMITING VSBYS. ASIDE FROM A FEW CHANGES THE
OVERALL TRENDS IN THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES...WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG...AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE CORE OF THE 500 MB
COLD POOL TEMPERATURES AROUND -18 TO -20C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH. WHILE INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL...THE COLD
POOL ALOFT AND ROBUST SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS.

INSTABILITY WEAKENS THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST. A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT.  OUT WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO TURN MORE
ZONAL BY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL
AGREEMENT TRENDED TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE. FOR CONFIDENCE LEVEL...HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT A LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO SEEP
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE
WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN. MODELS TRY TO PUSH OUT SOME QPF
BUT DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEELING AS HIGH PRESSURE OUT EAST BUILD
ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS. IN FACT SOME OF THE INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS MOVE WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO FOR NOW MENTIONED
JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...

MAIN FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WAS FOCUS ON THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT A SLUG OF RAIN WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING. OVERALL A STALLED FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AS A FEW WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION. APPEARS TO BE 2 DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS...THE
GFS/CANADIAN AND THE EC/ECENS/UKMET. THE GFS CAMP BRINGS THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ON SUNDAY WHILE THE EC CAMP BRINGS IT IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. OVERALL UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FLOW TO TAP INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
INCREASING THE PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...AND ALMOST 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AWAY. BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A GOOD 850 MB LLJ INTO
THE FLOW AT RESPECTIVE TIMES FOR HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR. ALSO BECAUSE
OF THE INCREASING LLJ CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT HEAVIER RAIN WILL OCCUR...JUST A
MATTER OF FINE TUNING THE TIMING OF WHEN IT WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

WORK WEEK...

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON
MONDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT ON TUESDAY AS FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION. HOWEVER TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM MAY CHANGE AS IT IS STILL 6-7
DAYS AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THROUGH 02Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE...UNCERTAIN ON THE TIMING.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...WITH LOCAL IFR
IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN END
TIME OF SEA BREEZE THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS
EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA AND ISO THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH GOOD
VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FROM A
DISTANT OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE...
CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS. BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING VSBY CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS/WINDS STILL BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 302300
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

700 PM UPDATE...
DRY WEATHER TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TONIGHT
AFTER SUNSET AS LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL HEATING. HOWEVER CLOUD DEBRIS FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK
MAY LIMIT THIS IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE PATCHY FOG IN THE NORMAL PRONE REGION ACROSS THE
INTERIOR MAY DEVELOP LIMITING VSBYS. ASIDE FROM A FEW CHANGES THE
OVERALL TRENDS IN THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES...WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG...AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE CORE OF THE 500 MB
COLD POOL TEMPERATURES AROUND -18 TO -20C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH. WHILE INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL...THE COLD
POOL ALOFT AND ROBUST SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS.

INSTABILITY WEAKENS THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST. A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT.  OUT WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO TURN MORE
ZONAL BY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL
AGREEMENT TRENDED TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE. FOR CONFIDENCE LEVEL...HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT A LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO SEEP
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE
WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN. MODELS TRY TO PUSH OUT SOME QPF
BUT DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEELING AS HIGH PRESSURE OUT EAST BUILD
ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS. IN FACT SOME OF THE INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS MOVE WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO FOR NOW MENTIONED
JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...

MAIN FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WAS FOCUS ON THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT A SLUG OF RAIN WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING. OVERALL A STALLED FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AS A FEW WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION. APPEARS TO BE 2 DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS...THE
GFS/CANADIAN AND THE EC/ECENS/UKMET. THE GFS CAMP BRINGS THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ON SUNDAY WHILE THE EC CAMP BRINGS IT IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. OVERALL UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FLOW TO TAP INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
INCREASING THE PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...AND ALMOST 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AWAY. BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A GOOD 850 MB LLJ INTO
THE FLOW AT RESPECTIVE TIMES FOR HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR. ALSO BECAUSE
OF THE INCREASING LLJ CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT HEAVIER RAIN WILL OCCUR...JUST A
MATTER OF FINE TUNING THE TIMING OF WHEN IT WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

WORK WEEK...

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON
MONDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT ON TUESDAY AS FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION. HOWEVER TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM MAY CHANGE AS IT IS STILL 6-7
DAYS AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THROUGH 02Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE...UNCERTAIN ON THE TIMING.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...WITH LOCAL IFR
IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN END
TIME OF SEA BREEZE THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS
EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA AND ISO THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH GOOD
VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FROM A
DISTANT OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE...
CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS. BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING VSBY CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS/WINDS STILL BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 302300
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

700 PM UPDATE...
DRY WEATHER TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TONIGHT
AFTER SUNSET AS LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL HEATING. HOWEVER CLOUD DEBRIS FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK
MAY LIMIT THIS IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE PATCHY FOG IN THE NORMAL PRONE REGION ACROSS THE
INTERIOR MAY DEVELOP LIMITING VSBYS. ASIDE FROM A FEW CHANGES THE
OVERALL TRENDS IN THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES...WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG...AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE CORE OF THE 500 MB
COLD POOL TEMPERATURES AROUND -18 TO -20C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH. WHILE INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL...THE COLD
POOL ALOFT AND ROBUST SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS.

INSTABILITY WEAKENS THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST. A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT.  OUT WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO TURN MORE
ZONAL BY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL
AGREEMENT TRENDED TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE. FOR CONFIDENCE LEVEL...HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT A LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO SEEP
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE
WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN. MODELS TRY TO PUSH OUT SOME QPF
BUT DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEELING AS HIGH PRESSURE OUT EAST BUILD
ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS. IN FACT SOME OF THE INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS MOVE WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO FOR NOW MENTIONED
JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...

MAIN FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WAS FOCUS ON THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT A SLUG OF RAIN WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING. OVERALL A STALLED FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AS A FEW WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION. APPEARS TO BE 2 DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS...THE
GFS/CANADIAN AND THE EC/ECENS/UKMET. THE GFS CAMP BRINGS THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ON SUNDAY WHILE THE EC CAMP BRINGS IT IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. OVERALL UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FLOW TO TAP INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
INCREASING THE PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...AND ALMOST 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AWAY. BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A GOOD 850 MB LLJ INTO
THE FLOW AT RESPECTIVE TIMES FOR HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR. ALSO BECAUSE
OF THE INCREASING LLJ CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT HEAVIER RAIN WILL OCCUR...JUST A
MATTER OF FINE TUNING THE TIMING OF WHEN IT WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

WORK WEEK...

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON
MONDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT ON TUESDAY AS FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION. HOWEVER TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM MAY CHANGE AS IT IS STILL 6-7
DAYS AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THROUGH 02Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE...UNCERTAIN ON THE TIMING.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...WITH LOCAL IFR
IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN END
TIME OF SEA BREEZE THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS
EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA AND ISO THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH GOOD
VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FROM A
DISTANT OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE...
CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS. BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING VSBY CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS/WINDS STILL BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 302300
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

700 PM UPDATE...
DRY WEATHER TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TONIGHT
AFTER SUNSET AS LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL HEATING. HOWEVER CLOUD DEBRIS FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK
MAY LIMIT THIS IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE PATCHY FOG IN THE NORMAL PRONE REGION ACROSS THE
INTERIOR MAY DEVELOP LIMITING VSBYS. ASIDE FROM A FEW CHANGES THE
OVERALL TRENDS IN THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES...WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG...AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE CORE OF THE 500 MB
COLD POOL TEMPERATURES AROUND -18 TO -20C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH. WHILE INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL...THE COLD
POOL ALOFT AND ROBUST SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS.

INSTABILITY WEAKENS THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST. A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT.  OUT WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO TURN MORE
ZONAL BY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL
AGREEMENT TRENDED TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE. FOR CONFIDENCE LEVEL...HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT A LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO SEEP
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE
WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN. MODELS TRY TO PUSH OUT SOME QPF
BUT DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEELING AS HIGH PRESSURE OUT EAST BUILD
ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS. IN FACT SOME OF THE INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS MOVE WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO FOR NOW MENTIONED
JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...

MAIN FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WAS FOCUS ON THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT A SLUG OF RAIN WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING. OVERALL A STALLED FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AS A FEW WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION. APPEARS TO BE 2 DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS...THE
GFS/CANADIAN AND THE EC/ECENS/UKMET. THE GFS CAMP BRINGS THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ON SUNDAY WHILE THE EC CAMP BRINGS IT IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. OVERALL UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FLOW TO TAP INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
INCREASING THE PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...AND ALMOST 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AWAY. BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A GOOD 850 MB LLJ INTO
THE FLOW AT RESPECTIVE TIMES FOR HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR. ALSO BECAUSE
OF THE INCREASING LLJ CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT HEAVIER RAIN WILL OCCUR...JUST A
MATTER OF FINE TUNING THE TIMING OF WHEN IT WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

WORK WEEK...

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON
MONDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT ON TUESDAY AS FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION. HOWEVER TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM MAY CHANGE AS IT IS STILL 6-7
DAYS AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THROUGH 02Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE...UNCERTAIN ON THE TIMING.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...WITH LOCAL IFR
IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN END
TIME OF SEA BREEZE THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS
EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA AND ISO THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH GOOD
VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FROM A
DISTANT OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE...
CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS. BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING VSBY CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS/WINDS STILL BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



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