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000
FXUS61 KBOX 271154
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
654 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CRIPPLING AND HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL IMPACT THE
REGION INTO TONIGHT. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. DRY BUT VERY COLD AIR LOOKS TO
FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD WITH 1 TO 2 FT OF
  SNOW...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
* STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
* MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

7 AM UPDATE...

WV LOOP SHOWS DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE BENCHMARK WITH
CONVECTION AND LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED AT THE ED GE OF THE DRY
SLOT EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. DRY SLOT WILL REMAIN EAST OF NEW ENG.
SFC LOW DOWN TO NEAR 980 MB ALSO NEAR THE BENCHMARK AS SYSTEM IS
BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED. ONLY SLOW MOVEMENT NORTH EXPECTED
DURING TODAY AS THE LOW GETS CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WHICH WILL PROLONG OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW THROUGH TODAY.

SNOWFALL / BANDING / BLIZZARD...

CLASSIC DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS BAND ACROSS CENTRAL/NE MA
EXTENDING INTO NE CT AND N RI. VERY HEAVY SNOW UNDER THIS BAND
WITH SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY 2-3"/HOUR. NAM MID LEVEL FGEN FIELDS
DOING A VERY GOOD JOB SIGNALING THIS BAND AND SHOW A SLOW
WEAKENING DURING THE DAY AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. SO WHILE THE
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT...STILL EXPECT OCCASIONAL
HEAVY SNOW TODAY ACROSS E HALF NEW ENG. MEANWHILE...PULSES OF
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WHICH ARE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE CONTINUE TO MOVE
FROM THE OCEAN ACROSS SE MA. IN FACT...RECEIVING REPORTS OF
THUNDER SNOW ACROSS THE CAPE AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 6 C/KM
ACROSS SE NEW ENG SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION.

HEAVIEST SNOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT STILL
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE NOW.

ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM 6-10 INCHES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO THE SNOW ACCUM MAP...WITH MAX ACCUM
AROUND 2 FT AND LOCALLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM NE CT
THROUGH CENTRAL/NE MA AND EXTENDING S ALONG E COASTAL MA TO THE
UPPER CAPE. LOWERED AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW ENG AND
ACROSS RI AND ADJACENT INTERIOR SE MA WHICH WILL LARGELY REMAIN
OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIEST BANDING.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WIND WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF NEW ENG WITH
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILLS WILL
BE DOWN INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ADDING TO THE
SEVERITY AND LIFE THREATENING ASPECT OF THE STORM. TRAVEL WILL BE
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE.

WIND...
CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OCCURRING THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FOR
THE CAPE/ISLANDS TO COASTAL SE MA AS LOW PRES DEEPENS NEAR THE
BENCHMARK. LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 75 KTS PERSISTS IN THIS REGION.
SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR NEAR HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS TO 75 MPH
IN THIS REGION...WITH GUSTS TO 50-60 BACK TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
30-40 FURTHER IN THE INTERIOR. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE AND WIDESPREAD
POWER OUTAGES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE MA AND ESPECIALLY THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL ADD TO LOAD.

TEMPS...
COASTAL FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SE MA WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS WEST
OF THE FRONT AND 20S TO LOWER 30S TO THE EAST. EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 TODAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION...AND
EVENTUALLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S SE COASTAL MA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TONIGHT...
AS MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM EAST OF CAPE COD...EXPECT SNOW
TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AND END FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME MINOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUM POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VERY COLD WITH LOWS DOWN
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS...EXCEPT TEENS IMMEDIATE COAST. EXPECT
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS DEVELOPING AND APPROACHING WIND CHILL
THRESHOLD OF -15 OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT COASTAL STORM TO DRIFT NE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE ACROSS
NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY. LAST OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PUSH OFF THE
COAST WED MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WILL
STILL SEE BLUSTERY NW WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ALONG THE
COAST AS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT LINGERS THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING. BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS WITH H85 TEMPS
DOWN TO -10C TO -12C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN
THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION...POSSIBLY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED N-S ELONGATED
HIGH PRES. AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL
DROP OFF TO LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM. THIS...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THE NEW SNOW PACK...EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS INLAND TO DROP TO BETWEEN ZERO AND -5 ACROSS THE COLDER
INLAND VALLEYS...RANGING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR MOST OTHER AREAS
EXCEPT HOLDING AROUND 20 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

THURSDAY...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN BRINGS ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE/CLIPPER
SURFACE LOW IN THIS W-NW FLOW. RIDGE EARLY THU MORNING WILL PUSH
E AS LOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SNEAK
INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS BACK TO
SW...SO WILL BRING SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS
TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...MILDEST ALONG THE S
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT AND FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

NOTING RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC FEATURES ON THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS LIE
IN THE DETAILS. CONTINUE TO SEE SIGNAL FOR POSSIBLE LOW PRES
MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION. USED
A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH ENSEMBLES FOR A CONSENSUS
FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
EXPECT CLIPPER LOW TO CROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
NOTING A COUPLE OF WEAK H5 SHORT WAVES WHICH ARE NOT WELL
ORGANIZED AND SURFACE SYSTEM REMAINS ON THE WEAK SIDE. HOWEVER...
FAIRLY GOOD QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SO COULD SEE A PLOWABLE
SNOWFALL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
LOW PRES AND SHORT WAVE EXIT THE REGION DURING FRI NIGHT...THOUGH
TIMING THE EXIT OF THE PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IS STILL
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. HOWEVER...NOTING ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD
AIR WORKING IN AS H85 TEMPS DIVE TO -18C TO -22C BY 12Z SAT.
SHOULD BE DRY BY MIDDAY SAT BUT VERY COLD.

HIGH PRES LOOKS TO CROSS DURING SUNDAY...THEN TIMING ISSUES COME
INTO PLAY WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE SYSTEM OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR SUN NIGHT AND/OR MON. LOW CONFIDENCE AS
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND TRACK CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM IS MOVING INTO THE REGION. HEAVY SNOW WILL
MOVE UP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 1-3 INCH PER HOUR RATES...AND LOCAL 4
INCH PER HOUR RATES POSSIBLE. NORTH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS IN THE CT VALLEY
AND CENTRAL MASS...40-50 KNOTS IN THE BOS-PVD COASTAL PLAIN
AREA...AND 50-70 KNOTS CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST. EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT MOVE IN AT 2000 FEET AGL LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST
AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS. VERY STRONG WIND CONTINUE WITH
GUSTS 70-80 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MASS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY AND DIMINISHES
TUESDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THROUGH MIDDAY OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH
MIDDAY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH
MOST OF THU. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN -SN AND
PATCHY FOG THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...THEN IMPROVING FROM W-E
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS E MA EARLY. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT WITH SEAS 30-35 FT OVER THE E
WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE
OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
PERIOD OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT WED NIGHT.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THU INTO THU NIGHT. W-NW WINDS INCREASE DURING
FRIDAY. LOW END GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. SEAS BUILDING.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...NW GALE GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS ALONG
WITH LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...POSSIBLY UP TO 7-9
FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING TODAY ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST FOR BOTH THIS MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLES ***

POWERFUL WINTER STORM DEVELOPING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AND
COMBINING WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC TO YIELD
HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING AND INTO MIDDAY ACROSS
NANTUCKET...CAPE COD AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY. TIDE GAUGES ALONG
THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE AT 3 AM INDICATING STORM SURGE VALUES
ALREADY 2.5 TO 3.0 FT! THIS WILL YIELD MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THIS MORNING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE HIGHEST IMPACT
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE NANTUCKET/CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES AND
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY INCLUDING THE
COMMUNITIES OF HULL/MARSHFIELD AND SCITUATE.

COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO CAPE ANN HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FLOODING SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE SOUTH
SHORE.

THESE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION OF SEA
WATER. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS LIKELY AS WELL GIVEN SEAS OFFSHORE HAVE
ALREADY CLIMBED TO 18 TO 22 FT AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
COULD SEE OFFSHORE SEAS 25 TO 35 FT THIS AFTERNOON! THIS WILL RESULT
LARGE WAVES BATTERING SEAWALLS AND OTHER SHORELINE STRUCTURES. IN
ADDITION THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH THE LARGE WAVE
ACTION TO YIELD SEVERE BEACH EROSION.

AS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...WATER LEVELS MAY BE ABOUT A
HALF A FOOT LOWER HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE AT LEAST AS LARGE AS THIS
MORNING OR POSSIBLE A FEW FEET HIGHER. THUS IMPACTS WILL BE SIMILAR
HOWEVER THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO
CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES SUCH AS SANDWICH HARBOR. THUS LESS IMPACT
FOR NANTUCKET THAN THIS MORNING. NEVERTHELESS AT LEAST MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR NANTUCKET.

SO IN A NUTSHELL...NO CHANGES TO ANY HEADLINES WITH COASTAL FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAINING IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT TWO TIDE CYCLES.

AS FOR RI...THE RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING HAS COMMENCED WITH
HIGH TIDE ALREADY OCCURRING. THEREFORE THE RISK HAS DIMINISHED AND
THE ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271154
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
654 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CRIPPLING AND HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL IMPACT THE
REGION INTO TONIGHT. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. DRY BUT VERY COLD AIR LOOKS TO
FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD WITH 1 TO 2 FT OF
  SNOW...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
* STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
* MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

7 AM UPDATE...

WV LOOP SHOWS DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE BENCHMARK WITH
CONVECTION AND LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED AT THE ED GE OF THE DRY
SLOT EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. DRY SLOT WILL REMAIN EAST OF NEW ENG.
SFC LOW DOWN TO NEAR 980 MB ALSO NEAR THE BENCHMARK AS SYSTEM IS
BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED. ONLY SLOW MOVEMENT NORTH EXPECTED
DURING TODAY AS THE LOW GETS CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WHICH WILL PROLONG OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW THROUGH TODAY.

SNOWFALL / BANDING / BLIZZARD...

CLASSIC DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS BAND ACROSS CENTRAL/NE MA
EXTENDING INTO NE CT AND N RI. VERY HEAVY SNOW UNDER THIS BAND
WITH SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY 2-3"/HOUR. NAM MID LEVEL FGEN FIELDS
DOING A VERY GOOD JOB SIGNALING THIS BAND AND SHOW A SLOW
WEAKENING DURING THE DAY AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. SO WHILE THE
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT...STILL EXPECT OCCASIONAL
HEAVY SNOW TODAY ACROSS E HALF NEW ENG. MEANWHILE...PULSES OF
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WHICH ARE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE CONTINUE TO MOVE
FROM THE OCEAN ACROSS SE MA. IN FACT...RECEIVING REPORTS OF
THUNDER SNOW ACROSS THE CAPE AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 6 C/KM
ACROSS SE NEW ENG SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION.

HEAVIEST SNOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT STILL
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE NOW.

ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM 6-10 INCHES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO THE SNOW ACCUM MAP...WITH MAX ACCUM
AROUND 2 FT AND LOCALLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM NE CT
THROUGH CENTRAL/NE MA AND EXTENDING S ALONG E COASTAL MA TO THE
UPPER CAPE. LOWERED AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW ENG AND
ACROSS RI AND ADJACENT INTERIOR SE MA WHICH WILL LARGELY REMAIN
OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIEST BANDING.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WIND WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF NEW ENG WITH
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILLS WILL
BE DOWN INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ADDING TO THE
SEVERITY AND LIFE THREATENING ASPECT OF THE STORM. TRAVEL WILL BE
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE.

WIND...
CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OCCURRING THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FOR
THE CAPE/ISLANDS TO COASTAL SE MA AS LOW PRES DEEPENS NEAR THE
BENCHMARK. LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 75 KTS PERSISTS IN THIS REGION.
SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR NEAR HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS TO 75 MPH
IN THIS REGION...WITH GUSTS TO 50-60 BACK TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
30-40 FURTHER IN THE INTERIOR. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE AND WIDESPREAD
POWER OUTAGES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE MA AND ESPECIALLY THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL ADD TO LOAD.

TEMPS...
COASTAL FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SE MA WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS WEST
OF THE FRONT AND 20S TO LOWER 30S TO THE EAST. EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 TODAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION...AND
EVENTUALLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S SE COASTAL MA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TONIGHT...
AS MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM EAST OF CAPE COD...EXPECT SNOW
TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AND END FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME MINOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUM POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VERY COLD WITH LOWS DOWN
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS...EXCEPT TEENS IMMEDIATE COAST. EXPECT
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS DEVELOPING AND APPROACHING WIND CHILL
THRESHOLD OF -15 OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT COASTAL STORM TO DRIFT NE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE ACROSS
NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY. LAST OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PUSH OFF THE
COAST WED MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WILL
STILL SEE BLUSTERY NW WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ALONG THE
COAST AS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT LINGERS THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING. BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS WITH H85 TEMPS
DOWN TO -10C TO -12C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN
THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION...POSSIBLY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED N-S ELONGATED
HIGH PRES. AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL
DROP OFF TO LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM. THIS...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THE NEW SNOW PACK...EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS INLAND TO DROP TO BETWEEN ZERO AND -5 ACROSS THE COLDER
INLAND VALLEYS...RANGING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR MOST OTHER AREAS
EXCEPT HOLDING AROUND 20 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

THURSDAY...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN BRINGS ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE/CLIPPER
SURFACE LOW IN THIS W-NW FLOW. RIDGE EARLY THU MORNING WILL PUSH
E AS LOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SNEAK
INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS BACK TO
SW...SO WILL BRING SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS
TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...MILDEST ALONG THE S
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT AND FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

NOTING RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC FEATURES ON THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS LIE
IN THE DETAILS. CONTINUE TO SEE SIGNAL FOR POSSIBLE LOW PRES
MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION. USED
A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH ENSEMBLES FOR A CONSENSUS
FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
EXPECT CLIPPER LOW TO CROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
NOTING A COUPLE OF WEAK H5 SHORT WAVES WHICH ARE NOT WELL
ORGANIZED AND SURFACE SYSTEM REMAINS ON THE WEAK SIDE. HOWEVER...
FAIRLY GOOD QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SO COULD SEE A PLOWABLE
SNOWFALL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
LOW PRES AND SHORT WAVE EXIT THE REGION DURING FRI NIGHT...THOUGH
TIMING THE EXIT OF THE PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IS STILL
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. HOWEVER...NOTING ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD
AIR WORKING IN AS H85 TEMPS DIVE TO -18C TO -22C BY 12Z SAT.
SHOULD BE DRY BY MIDDAY SAT BUT VERY COLD.

HIGH PRES LOOKS TO CROSS DURING SUNDAY...THEN TIMING ISSUES COME
INTO PLAY WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE SYSTEM OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR SUN NIGHT AND/OR MON. LOW CONFIDENCE AS
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND TRACK CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM IS MOVING INTO THE REGION. HEAVY SNOW WILL
MOVE UP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 1-3 INCH PER HOUR RATES...AND LOCAL 4
INCH PER HOUR RATES POSSIBLE. NORTH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS IN THE CT VALLEY
AND CENTRAL MASS...40-50 KNOTS IN THE BOS-PVD COASTAL PLAIN
AREA...AND 50-70 KNOTS CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST. EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT MOVE IN AT 2000 FEET AGL LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST
AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS. VERY STRONG WIND CONTINUE WITH
GUSTS 70-80 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MASS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY AND DIMINISHES
TUESDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THROUGH MIDDAY OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH
MIDDAY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH
MOST OF THU. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN -SN AND
PATCHY FOG THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...THEN IMPROVING FROM W-E
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS E MA EARLY. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT WITH SEAS 30-35 FT OVER THE E
WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE
OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
PERIOD OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT WED NIGHT.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THU INTO THU NIGHT. W-NW WINDS INCREASE DURING
FRIDAY. LOW END GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. SEAS BUILDING.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...NW GALE GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS ALONG
WITH LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...POSSIBLY UP TO 7-9
FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING TODAY ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST FOR BOTH THIS MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLES ***

POWERFUL WINTER STORM DEVELOPING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AND
COMBINING WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC TO YIELD
HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING AND INTO MIDDAY ACROSS
NANTUCKET...CAPE COD AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY. TIDE GAUGES ALONG
THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE AT 3 AM INDICATING STORM SURGE VALUES
ALREADY 2.5 TO 3.0 FT! THIS WILL YIELD MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THIS MORNING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE HIGHEST IMPACT
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE NANTUCKET/CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES AND
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY INCLUDING THE
COMMUNITIES OF HULL/MARSHFIELD AND SCITUATE.

COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO CAPE ANN HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FLOODING SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE SOUTH
SHORE.

THESE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION OF SEA
WATER. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS LIKELY AS WELL GIVEN SEAS OFFSHORE HAVE
ALREADY CLIMBED TO 18 TO 22 FT AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
COULD SEE OFFSHORE SEAS 25 TO 35 FT THIS AFTERNOON! THIS WILL RESULT
LARGE WAVES BATTERING SEAWALLS AND OTHER SHORELINE STRUCTURES. IN
ADDITION THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH THE LARGE WAVE
ACTION TO YIELD SEVERE BEACH EROSION.

AS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...WATER LEVELS MAY BE ABOUT A
HALF A FOOT LOWER HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE AT LEAST AS LARGE AS THIS
MORNING OR POSSIBLE A FEW FEET HIGHER. THUS IMPACTS WILL BE SIMILAR
HOWEVER THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO
CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES SUCH AS SANDWICH HARBOR. THUS LESS IMPACT
FOR NANTUCKET THAN THIS MORNING. NEVERTHELESS AT LEAST MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR NANTUCKET.

SO IN A NUTSHELL...NO CHANGES TO ANY HEADLINES WITH COASTAL FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAINING IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT TWO TIDE CYCLES.

AS FOR RI...THE RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING HAS COMMENCED WITH
HIGH TIDE ALREADY OCCURRING. THEREFORE THE RISK HAS DIMINISHED AND
THE ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KGYX 271039 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
539 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF
NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS TODAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPDATE...INTENSE MESOSCALE DEFORMATION BAND HAS ROTATED FULLY
ONSHORE NOW. SNWFL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE OCCURRING
BENEATH THIS BAND. HAVE UPDATED SNWFL AMOUNTS IN THE PREVIOUS AND
NEXT 6 HOUR PERIODS TO GET A MORE ACCURATE UP TO DATE TOTAL
ACCUMULATION GRID TO THIS HOUR. AGAIN MORE FOCUS IS ON THE COAST
AND IMMEDIATE INTERIOR FOR HIGHER SNWFL AMOUNTS...WHILE TRIMMING
THE NRN EDGE BACK. SN IS ONLY NOW BEGINNING TO FALL IN THE
MTNS...SO AT BEST COULD ONLY HAVE AN INCH OR TWO ACCUMULATION THRU
12Z FOR THESE AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS UPDATE...00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS LATCHED ONTO THE IDEA OF SLIGHTLY WEAKER S/WV
FEATURE PHASING WITH THE INITIAL STORM SYSTEM THAT EXITED THE EAST
COAST YESTERDAY. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO SLIP FURTHER
E...RATHER THAN A STRONGER CAPTURE AND TUG BACK TO THE W.
GFS...CMC- REGIONAL...ECMWF...AND NAM ALL HAVE SIMILAR IDEAS
REGARDING EVOLUTION FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

SNOWFALL...

AT THIS HOUR A VERY INTENSE BAND OF SNWFL IS MORE OR LESS
PARALLELING THE COAST...AND SLOWLY INCHING NWWD. MODELED QPF HAS
BEEN KEYING ON THE COAST OR JUST INLAND FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW.
TOSSING QPF ASIDE AND LOOKING ALOFT...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF
FEATURE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AT H7. WITHIN THIS BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS THERE IS ALSO A DEFORMATION MAXIMUM. THE STRONGEST
BANDS OF SNWFL ARE FAVORED JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
DEFORMATION MAXIMUM...WITHIN THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS. AS OF
THE 06-09Z PERIOD THIS IS VERIFYING NICELY. BY 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SIGNAL PIVOTS INLAND MORE...AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
THRU 18Z. DURING THIS TIME BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS
BRIEFLY ATTEMPT TO NEAR MOIST ABSOLUTELY UNSTABLE ABOVE H7. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE REPORTS OF THUNDER SN...BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SNWFL RATES TO 2-4
INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HIGHEST SNWFL AMOUNTS
TOWARDS THE COAST SOME. THE OTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER WITH SNWFL
AMOUNTS IS VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND JUST N OF THE FORECAST AREA.
NLY WINDS WILL ADVECT THIS AIR SWD...ERODING THE NRN EDGE OF SNWFL
AS WE/VE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THAT IN COMBINATION WITH THE
EWD MODEL SHIFT WILL YIELD A MUCH SHARPER SNWFL GRADIENT THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST. FOR NOW ONLY SIGHTLY LOWERED AMOUNTS IN THE
N...BUT SUBSEQUENT UPDATES MAY NEED MORE AGGRESSIVE LOWERING OF
TOTALS.

WINDS...

27.00Z ECWMF CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA OF ROTATING A POTENT LOW
LEVEL JET NWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AT 900 MB IT
INCREASED FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST TO 80 KTS. GIVEN THE DEEP
COLD AIR IN PLACE...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE QUITE HIGH FOR A NOREASTER
EVEN WITH A LARGE INVERSION IN PLACE. EVEN A FRACTION OF THIS LOW
LEVEL JET MIXING DOWN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE HEAVIEST
SNWFL...YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS ABOVE 50 KTS NEAR THE
COAST. GIVEN THAT WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING ABOVE 30 KTS...THIS
SEEMS ENTIRELY REASONABLE. INCREASED WIND FORECAST SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. WIND POTENTIAL DECREASES FAIRLY QUICKLY THE
FURTHER INLAND ONE GOES...BUT GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...BEST WIND POTENTIAL WILL
OCCUR FROM THIS MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...

COLD HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NLY WINDS WILL ENSURE THAT TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC THRU THE DAY. EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE EVENT
WILL SEE SNWFL IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. STRONG SYSTEM TO
OUR S AND THOSE NLY WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP COASTAL FRONT
OFF SHORE...AND ANY ADDITIONAL QPF ENHANCEMENT OFF SHORE TOO. COLD
TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO COMBINE TO PRODUCE BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILLS. IF STRANDED OUT IN THE STORM...THESE CONDITIONS COULD
PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES OCCLUDES AND UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THRU WED.
THIS WILL CONTINUE -SN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH INTENSITY
WILL BE FAR LESS THAN THAT EXPERIENCED TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE
OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES LEADING TO
DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE OVERALL THEME IS
WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE CONUS...WITH AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SYNOPTIC
SNOWS ROUGHLY EVERY TWO DAYS...WITH FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY...THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAMES FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
AT MOMENT. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON A QUIET NOTE UNDER RIDGING
SURFACE AND ALOFT THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES BY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A GENERAL SNOWFALL ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...WEAK RIDGING FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY AS THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR IS DEVELOPING FROM SRN NH TO
COASTAL ME AT THIS HOUR. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS HEAVY SNWFL
BAND SLOWLY ROTATES NEWD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
KLEB AND KHIE WILL BE SLOWER TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID MORNING OR LATER. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL
SEE NNELY WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 KTS AT TIMES. SNWFL WINDS DOWN BY TUE
EVENING...THOUGH PCPN LINGERS INTO WED. COULD SEE SCATTERED IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LINGERING SHSN.

LONG TERM...

FRI...MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.
      NW SFC WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS...EXCEPT FOR OUTER WATERS S OF CAPE ELIZABETH. HERE A
PERIOD OF 65 KT GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY...SO HAVE ISSUED A HURRICANE
FORCE WIND WARNING. ALSO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ON THE WATER BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY THRU WED MORNING AS A RESULT.

LONG TERM...

THU NIGHT - SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES ARE BUILDING THIS MORNING RIGHT AROUND
HIGH TIDE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A TWO FOOT STORM SURGE WILL
ALLOW PORTLAND AND HAMPTON TO REACH THEIR FLOOD STAGE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON JUST PRIOR TO HIGH
TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO HIGH TIDES TODAY. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT FORTUNES ROCKS...JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS AND FERRY BEACHES
IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

NERACOOS SPLASH-OVER NOMOGRAMS ALSO SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ISSUES AT
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-
     011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 271039 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
539 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF
NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS TODAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPDATE...INTENSE MESOSCALE DEFORMATION BAND HAS ROTATED FULLY
ONSHORE NOW. SNWFL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE OCCURRING
BENEATH THIS BAND. HAVE UPDATED SNWFL AMOUNTS IN THE PREVIOUS AND
NEXT 6 HOUR PERIODS TO GET A MORE ACCURATE UP TO DATE TOTAL
ACCUMULATION GRID TO THIS HOUR. AGAIN MORE FOCUS IS ON THE COAST
AND IMMEDIATE INTERIOR FOR HIGHER SNWFL AMOUNTS...WHILE TRIMMING
THE NRN EDGE BACK. SN IS ONLY NOW BEGINNING TO FALL IN THE
MTNS...SO AT BEST COULD ONLY HAVE AN INCH OR TWO ACCUMULATION THRU
12Z FOR THESE AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS UPDATE...00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS LATCHED ONTO THE IDEA OF SLIGHTLY WEAKER S/WV
FEATURE PHASING WITH THE INITIAL STORM SYSTEM THAT EXITED THE EAST
COAST YESTERDAY. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO SLIP FURTHER
E...RATHER THAN A STRONGER CAPTURE AND TUG BACK TO THE W.
GFS...CMC- REGIONAL...ECMWF...AND NAM ALL HAVE SIMILAR IDEAS
REGARDING EVOLUTION FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

SNOWFALL...

AT THIS HOUR A VERY INTENSE BAND OF SNWFL IS MORE OR LESS
PARALLELING THE COAST...AND SLOWLY INCHING NWWD. MODELED QPF HAS
BEEN KEYING ON THE COAST OR JUST INLAND FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW.
TOSSING QPF ASIDE AND LOOKING ALOFT...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF
FEATURE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AT H7. WITHIN THIS BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS THERE IS ALSO A DEFORMATION MAXIMUM. THE STRONGEST
BANDS OF SNWFL ARE FAVORED JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
DEFORMATION MAXIMUM...WITHIN THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS. AS OF
THE 06-09Z PERIOD THIS IS VERIFYING NICELY. BY 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SIGNAL PIVOTS INLAND MORE...AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
THRU 18Z. DURING THIS TIME BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS
BRIEFLY ATTEMPT TO NEAR MOIST ABSOLUTELY UNSTABLE ABOVE H7. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE REPORTS OF THUNDER SN...BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SNWFL RATES TO 2-4
INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HIGHEST SNWFL AMOUNTS
TOWARDS THE COAST SOME. THE OTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER WITH SNWFL
AMOUNTS IS VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND JUST N OF THE FORECAST AREA.
NLY WINDS WILL ADVECT THIS AIR SWD...ERODING THE NRN EDGE OF SNWFL
AS WE/VE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THAT IN COMBINATION WITH THE
EWD MODEL SHIFT WILL YIELD A MUCH SHARPER SNWFL GRADIENT THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST. FOR NOW ONLY SIGHTLY LOWERED AMOUNTS IN THE
N...BUT SUBSEQUENT UPDATES MAY NEED MORE AGGRESSIVE LOWERING OF
TOTALS.

WINDS...

27.00Z ECWMF CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA OF ROTATING A POTENT LOW
LEVEL JET NWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AT 900 MB IT
INCREASED FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST TO 80 KTS. GIVEN THE DEEP
COLD AIR IN PLACE...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE QUITE HIGH FOR A NOREASTER
EVEN WITH A LARGE INVERSION IN PLACE. EVEN A FRACTION OF THIS LOW
LEVEL JET MIXING DOWN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE HEAVIEST
SNWFL...YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS ABOVE 50 KTS NEAR THE
COAST. GIVEN THAT WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING ABOVE 30 KTS...THIS
SEEMS ENTIRELY REASONABLE. INCREASED WIND FORECAST SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. WIND POTENTIAL DECREASES FAIRLY QUICKLY THE
FURTHER INLAND ONE GOES...BUT GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...BEST WIND POTENTIAL WILL
OCCUR FROM THIS MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...

COLD HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NLY WINDS WILL ENSURE THAT TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC THRU THE DAY. EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE EVENT
WILL SEE SNWFL IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. STRONG SYSTEM TO
OUR S AND THOSE NLY WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP COASTAL FRONT
OFF SHORE...AND ANY ADDITIONAL QPF ENHANCEMENT OFF SHORE TOO. COLD
TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO COMBINE TO PRODUCE BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILLS. IF STRANDED OUT IN THE STORM...THESE CONDITIONS COULD
PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES OCCLUDES AND UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THRU WED.
THIS WILL CONTINUE -SN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH INTENSITY
WILL BE FAR LESS THAN THAT EXPERIENCED TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE
OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES LEADING TO
DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE OVERALL THEME IS
WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE CONUS...WITH AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SYNOPTIC
SNOWS ROUGHLY EVERY TWO DAYS...WITH FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY...THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAMES FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
AT MOMENT. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON A QUIET NOTE UNDER RIDGING
SURFACE AND ALOFT THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES BY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A GENERAL SNOWFALL ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...WEAK RIDGING FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY AS THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR IS DEVELOPING FROM SRN NH TO
COASTAL ME AT THIS HOUR. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS HEAVY SNWFL
BAND SLOWLY ROTATES NEWD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
KLEB AND KHIE WILL BE SLOWER TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID MORNING OR LATER. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL
SEE NNELY WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 KTS AT TIMES. SNWFL WINDS DOWN BY TUE
EVENING...THOUGH PCPN LINGERS INTO WED. COULD SEE SCATTERED IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LINGERING SHSN.

LONG TERM...

FRI...MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.
      NW SFC WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS...EXCEPT FOR OUTER WATERS S OF CAPE ELIZABETH. HERE A
PERIOD OF 65 KT GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY...SO HAVE ISSUED A HURRICANE
FORCE WIND WARNING. ALSO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ON THE WATER BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY THRU WED MORNING AS A RESULT.

LONG TERM...

THU NIGHT - SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES ARE BUILDING THIS MORNING RIGHT AROUND
HIGH TIDE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A TWO FOOT STORM SURGE WILL
ALLOW PORTLAND AND HAMPTON TO REACH THEIR FLOOD STAGE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON JUST PRIOR TO HIGH
TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO HIGH TIDES TODAY. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT FORTUNES ROCKS...JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS AND FERRY BEACHES
IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

NERACOOS SPLASH-OVER NOMOGRAMS ALSO SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ISSUES AT
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-
     011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270934
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
434 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CRIPPLING AND HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL IMPACT THE
REGION INTO TONIGHT. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. DRY BUT VERY COLD AIR LOOKS TO
FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD WITH 1 TO 2 FT OF
  SNOW...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
* STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
* MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

WV LOOP SHOWS DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH
WELL DEFINED COMMA HEAD WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL LIFTING NWD
INTO NEW ENG. RAPID CYCLOGENESIS IN PROGRESS WITH SFC LOW DOWN TO
984 MB. THERE ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK...BUT GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF A TRACK CLOSE TO THE BENCHMARK AS A SUB 980 MB
STORM AROUND 12Z. ONLY SLOW MOVEMENT NORTH DURING TODAY AS THE
LOW GETS CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH WILL PROLONG
OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW THROUGH TODAY.

SNOWFALL / BANDING / BLIZZARD...
VERY INTENSE MESOSCALE BAND SETTING UP ACROSS N CT THROUGH
CENTRAL/NE MA ASSOCD WITH THE STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW PRODUCING STRONG
OMEGA THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. PROBABLY SEEING 2-4"/HR
SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS BAND. MEANWHILE...PULSES OF HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS WHICH ARE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE
OCEAN ACROSS SE MA. VERY HEAVY CLUSTER OVER THE ISLANDS WILL BE
MOVING UP ACROSS SE MA NEXT 1-2 HOURS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER
6 C/KM ACROSS SE NEW ENG SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT
CONVECTION AND THUNDER SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES 2-3"/HOUR WILL BE
DEVELOPING IN SE MA AND PORTIONS OF CAPE COD.

HOW THESE BANDS EVOLVE TODAY WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE SNOWFALL
FORECAST AND THIS WILL BE TRICKY. GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE BEST MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS E MA WHILE NAM IS FURTHER WEST ACROSS
CENTRAL MA INTO CT. NAM SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS THE BEST AND
KEEP THIS BAND IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA BEFORE WEAKENING AND
MOVING EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCD WITH THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS SE MA WILL RESULT IN A
SECONDARY MAX IN EASTERN MA INCLUDING CAPE COD WITH OCCASIONAL
HEAVY SNOW.

WE HAVE ONLY MADE SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO THE SNOW ACCUM...
LOWERING SLIGHTLY IN THE BERKSHIRES AND INCREASING ACROSS CAPE
COD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANAL. STILL LOOKING FOR MAX SNOWFALL
ACROSS NE CT THROUGH CENTRAL MA...WITH SECONDARY MAX ACROSS E MA
TO THE CAPE COD CANAL. AROUND 2 FT EXPECTED IN THIS AREA...LOCALLY
30-36 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE PERSISTENT BANDS SET UP. LESSER
AMOUNTS IN BETWEEN BANDS.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WIND WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF NEW ENG WITH
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILLS WILL
BE DOWN INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ADDING TO THE
SEVERITY AND LIFE THREATENING ASPECT OF THE STORM. TRAVEL WILL BE
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE.

WIND...
CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OCCURRING THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FOR
THE CAPE/ISLANDS TO COASTAL SE MA AS LOW PRES DEEPENS NEAR THE
BENCHMARK. LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 75 KTS PERSISTS IN THIS REGION.
SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR NEAR HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS TO 75 MPH
IN THIS REGION...WITH GUSTS TO 50-60 BACK TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
30-40 FURTHER IN THE INTERIOR. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE AND WIDESPREAD
POWER OUTAGES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE MA AND ESPECIALLY THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL ADD TO LOAD.

TEMPS...
COASTAL FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SE MA WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS WEST
OF THE FRONT AND 20S TO LOWER 30S TO THE EAST. EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 TODAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION...AND
EVENTUALLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S SE COASTAL MA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TONIGHT...
AS MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM EAST OF CAPE COD...EXPECT SNOW
TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AND END FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME MINOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUM POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VERY COLD WITH LOWS DOWN
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS...EXCEPT TEENS IMMEDIATE COAST. EXPECT
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS DEVELOPING AND APPROACHING WIND CHILL
THRESHOLD OF -15 OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT COASTAL STORM TO DRIFT NE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE ACROSS
NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY. LAST OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PUSH OFF THE
COAST WED MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WILL
STILL SEE BLUSTERY NW WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ALONG THE
COAST AS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT LINGERS THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING. BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS WITH H85 TEMPS
DOWN TO -10C TO -12C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN
THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION...POSSIBLY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED N-S ELONGATED
HIGH PRES. AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL
DROP OFF TO LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM. THIS...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THE NEW SNOW PACK...EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS INLAND TO DROP TO BETWEEN ZERO AND -5 ACROSS THE COLDER
INLAND VALLEYS...RANGING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR MOST OTHER AREAS
EXCEPT HOLDING AROUND 20 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

THURSDAY...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN BRINGS ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE/CLIPPER
SURFACE LOW IN THIS W-NW FLOW. RIDGE EARLY THU MORNING WILL PUSH
E AS LOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SNEAK
INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS BACK TO
SW...SO WILL BRING SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS
TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...MILDEST ALONG THE S
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT AND FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

NOTING RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC FEATURES ON THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS LIE
IN THE DETAILS. CONTINUE TO SEE SIGNAL FOR POSSIBLE LOW PRES
MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION. USED
A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH ENSEMBLES FOR A CONSENSUS
FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
EXPECT CLIPPER LOW TO CROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
NOTING A COUPLE OF WEAK H5 SHORT WAVES WHICH ARE NOT WELL
ORGANIZED AND SURFACE SYSTEM REMAINS ON THE WEAK SIDE. HOWEVER...
FAIRLY GOOD QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SO COULD SEE A PLOWABLE
SNOWFALL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
LOW PRES AND SHORT WAVE EXIT THE REGION DURING FRI NIGHT...THOUGH
TIMING THE EXIT OF THE PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IS STILL
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. HOWEVER...NOTING ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD
AIR WORKING IN AS H85 TEMPS DIVE TO -18C TO -22C BY 12Z SAT.
SHOULD BE DRY BY MIDDAY SAT BUT VERY COLD.

HIGH PRES LOOKS TO CROSS DURING SUNDAY...THEN TIMING ISSUES COME
INTO PLAY WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE SYSTEM OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR SUN NIGHT AND/OR MON. LOW CONFIDENCE AS
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND TRACK CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM IS MOVING INTO THE REGION. HEAVY SNOW WILL
MOVE UP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 1-3 INCH PER HOUR RATES...AND LOCAL 4
INCH PER HOUR RATES POSSIBLE. NORTH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS IN THE CT VALLEY
AND CENTRAL MASS...40-50 KNOTS IN THE BOS-PVD COASTAL PLAIN
AREA...AND 50-70 KNOTS CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST. EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT MOVE IN AT 2000 FEET AGL LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST
AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS. VERY STRONG WIND CONTINUE WITH
GUSTS 70-80 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MASS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY AND DIMINISHES
TUESDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THROUGH MIDDAY OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH
MIDDAY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH
MOST OF THU. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN -SN AND
PATCHY FOG THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...THEN IMPROVING FROM W-E
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS E MA EARLY. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT WITH SEAS 30-35 FT OVER THE E
WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE
OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
PERIOD OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT WED NIGHT.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THU INTO THU NIGHT. W-NW WINDS INCREASE DURING
FRIDAY. LOW END GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. SEAS BUILDING.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...NW GALE GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS ALONG
WITH LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...POSSIBLY UP TO 7-9
FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING TODAY ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST FOR BOTH THIS MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLES ***

POWERFUL WINTER STORM DEVELOPING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AND
COMBINING WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC TO YIELD
HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING AND INTO MIDDAY ACROSS
NANTUCKET...CAPE COD AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY. TIDE GAUGES ALONG
THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE AT 3 AM INDICATING STORM SURGE VALUES
ALREADY 2.5 TO 3.0 FT! THIS WILL YIELD MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THIS MORNING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE HIGHEST IMPACT
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE NANTUCKET/CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES AND
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY INCLUDING THE
COMMUNITIES OF HULL/MARSHFIELD AND SCITUATE.

COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO CAPE ANN HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FLOODING SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE SOUTH
SHORE.

THESE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION OF SEA
WATER. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS LIKELY AS WELL GIVEN SEAS OFFSHORE HAVE
ALREADY CLIMBED TO 18 TO 22 FT AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
COULD SEE OFFSHORE SEAS 25 TO 35 FT THIS AFTERNOON! THIS WILL RESULT
LARGE WAVES BATTERING SEAWALLS AND OTHER SHORELINE STRUCTURES. IN
ADDITION THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH THE LARGE WAVE
ACTION TO YIELD SEVERE BEACH EROSION.

AS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...WATER LEVELS MAY BE ABOUT A
HALF A FOOT LOWER HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE AT LEAST AS LARGE AS THIS
MORNING OR POSSIBLE A FEW FEET HIGHER. THUS IMPACTS WILL BE SIMILAR
HOWEVER THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO
CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES SUCH AS SANDWICH HARBOR. THUS LESS IMPACT
FOR NANTUCKET THAN THIS MORNING. NEVERTHELESS AT LEAST MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR NANTUCKET.

SO IN A NUTSHELL...NO CHANGES TO ANY HEADLINES WITH COASTAL FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAINING IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT TWO TIDE CYCLES.

AS FOR RI...THE RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING HAS COMMENCED WITH
HIGH TIDE ALREADY OCCURRING. THEREFORE THE RISK HAS DIMINISHED AND
THE ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KGYX 270932
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
432 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF
NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS TODAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS UPDATE...00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
LATCHED ONTO THE IDEA OF SLIGHTLY WEAKER S/WV FEATURE PHASING WITH
THE INITIAL STORM SYSTEM THAT EXITED THE EAST COAST YESTERDAY.
THIS HAS ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO SLIP FURTHER E...RATHER THAN A
STRONGER CAPTURE AND TUG BACK TO THE W. GFS...CMC-
REGIONAL...ECMWF...AND NAM ALL HAVE SIMILAR IDEAS REGARDING
EVOLUTION FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

SNOWFALL...

AT THIS HOUR A VERY INTENSE BAND OF SNWFL IS MORE OR LESS
PARALLELING THE COAST...AND SLOWLY INCHING NWWD. MODELED QPF HAS
BEEN KEYING ON THE COAST OR JUST INLAND FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW.
TOSSING QPF ASIDE AND LOOKING ALOFT...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF
FEATURE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AT H7. WITHIN THIS BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS THERE IS ALSO A DEFORMATION MAXIMUM. THE STRONGEST
BANDS OF SNWFL ARE FAVORED JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
DEFORMATION MAXIMUM...WITHIN THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS. AS OF
THE 06-09Z PERIOD THIS IS VERIFYING NICELY. BY 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SIGNAL PIVOTS INLAND MORE...AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
THRU 18Z. DURING THIS TIME BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS
BRIEFLY ATTEMPT TO NEAR MOIST ABSOLUTELY UNSTABLE ABOVE H7. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE REPORTS OF THUNDER SN...BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SNWFL RATES TO 2-4
INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HIGHEST SNWFL AMOUNTS
TOWARDS THE COAST SOME. THE OTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER WITH SNWFL
AMOUNTS IS VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND JUST N OF THE FORECAST AREA.
NLY WINDS WILL ADVECT THIS AIR SWD...ERODING THE NRN EDGE OF SNWFL
AS WE/VE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THAT IN COMBINATION WITH THE
EWD MODEL SHIFT WILL YIELD A MUCH SHARPER SNWFL GRADIENT THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST. FOR NOW ONLY SIGHTLY LOWERED AMOUNTS IN THE
N...BUT SUBSEQUENT UPDATES MAY NEED MORE AGGRESSIVE LOWERING OF
TOTALS.

WINDS...

27.00Z ECWMF CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA OF ROTATING A POTENT LOW
LEVEL JET NWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AT 900 MB IT
INCREASED FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST TO 80 KTS. GIVEN THE DEEP
COLD AIR IN PLACE...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE QUITE HIGH FOR A NOREASTER
EVEN WITH A LARGE INVERSION IN PLACE. EVEN A FRACTION OF THIS LOW
LEVEL JET MIXING DOWN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE HEAVIEST
SNWFL...YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS ABOVE 50 KTS NEAR THE
COAST. GIVEN THAT WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING ABOVE 30 KTS...THIS
SEEMS ENTIRELY REASONABLE. INCREASED WIND FORECAST SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. WIND POTENTIAL DECREASES FAIRLY QUICKLY THE
FURTHER INLAND ONE GOES...BUT GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...BEST WIND POTENTIAL WILL
OCCUR FROM THIS MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...

COLD HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NLY WINDS WILL ENSURE THAT TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC THRU THE DAY. EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE EVENT
WILL SEE SNWFL IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. STRONG SYSTEM TO
OUR S AND THOSE NLY WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP COASTAL FRONT
OFF SHORE...AND ANY ADDITIONAL QPF ENHANCEMENT OFF SHORE TOO. COLD
TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO COMBINE TO PRODUCE BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILLS. IF STRANDED OUT IN THE STORM...THESE CONDITIONS COULD
PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES OCCLUDES AND UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THRU WED.
THIS WILL CONTINUE -SN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH INTENSITY
WILL BE FAR LESS THAN THAT EXPERIENCED TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE
OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES LEADING TO
DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE OVERALL THEME IS
WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE CONUS...WITH AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SYNOPTIC
SNOWS ROUGHLY EVERY TWO DAYS...WITH FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY...THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAMES FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
AT MOMENT. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON A QUIET NOTE UNDER RIDGING
SURFACE AND ALOFT THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES BY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A GENERAL SNOWFALL ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...WEAK RIDGING FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY AS THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR IS DEVELOPING FROM SRN NH TO
COASTAL ME AT THIS HOUR. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS HEAVY SNWFL
BAND SLOWLY ROTATES NEWD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
KLEB AND KHIE WILL BE SLOWER TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID MORNING OR LATER. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL
SEE NNELY WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 KTS AT TIMES. SNWFL WINDS DOWN BY TUE
EVENING...THOUGH PCPN LINGERS INTO WED. COULD SEE SCATTERED IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LINGERING SHSN.

LONG TERM...

FRI...MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.
      NW SFC WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS...EXCEPT FOR OUTER WATERS S OF CAPE ELIZABETH. HERE A
PERIOD OF 65 KT GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY...SO HAVE ISSUED A HURRICANE
FORCE WIND WARNING. ALSO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ON THE WATER BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY THRU WED MORNING AS A RESULT.

LONG TERM...

THU NIGHT - SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES ARE BUILDING THIS MORNING RIGHT AROUND
HIGH TIDE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A TWO FOOT STORM SURGE WILL
ALLOW PORTLAND AND HAMPTON TO REACH THEIR FLOOD STAGE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON JUST PRIOR TO HIGH
TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO HIGH TIDES TODAY. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT FORTUNES ROCKS...JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS AND FERRY BEACHES
IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

NERACOOS SPLASH-OVER NOMOGRAMS ALSO SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ISSUES AT
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-
     011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS
AVIATION...LEGRO/SCHWIBS
MARINE...LEGRO/SCHWIBS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LEGRO/CANNON




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270932
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
432 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF
NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS TODAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS UPDATE...00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
LATCHED ONTO THE IDEA OF SLIGHTLY WEAKER S/WV FEATURE PHASING WITH
THE INITIAL STORM SYSTEM THAT EXITED THE EAST COAST YESTERDAY.
THIS HAS ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO SLIP FURTHER E...RATHER THAN A
STRONGER CAPTURE AND TUG BACK TO THE W. GFS...CMC-
REGIONAL...ECMWF...AND NAM ALL HAVE SIMILAR IDEAS REGARDING
EVOLUTION FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

SNOWFALL...

AT THIS HOUR A VERY INTENSE BAND OF SNWFL IS MORE OR LESS
PARALLELING THE COAST...AND SLOWLY INCHING NWWD. MODELED QPF HAS
BEEN KEYING ON THE COAST OR JUST INLAND FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW.
TOSSING QPF ASIDE AND LOOKING ALOFT...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF
FEATURE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AT H7. WITHIN THIS BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS THERE IS ALSO A DEFORMATION MAXIMUM. THE STRONGEST
BANDS OF SNWFL ARE FAVORED JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
DEFORMATION MAXIMUM...WITHIN THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS. AS OF
THE 06-09Z PERIOD THIS IS VERIFYING NICELY. BY 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SIGNAL PIVOTS INLAND MORE...AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
THRU 18Z. DURING THIS TIME BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS
BRIEFLY ATTEMPT TO NEAR MOIST ABSOLUTELY UNSTABLE ABOVE H7. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE REPORTS OF THUNDER SN...BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SNWFL RATES TO 2-4
INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HIGHEST SNWFL AMOUNTS
TOWARDS THE COAST SOME. THE OTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER WITH SNWFL
AMOUNTS IS VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND JUST N OF THE FORECAST AREA.
NLY WINDS WILL ADVECT THIS AIR SWD...ERODING THE NRN EDGE OF SNWFL
AS WE/VE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THAT IN COMBINATION WITH THE
EWD MODEL SHIFT WILL YIELD A MUCH SHARPER SNWFL GRADIENT THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST. FOR NOW ONLY SIGHTLY LOWERED AMOUNTS IN THE
N...BUT SUBSEQUENT UPDATES MAY NEED MORE AGGRESSIVE LOWERING OF
TOTALS.

WINDS...

27.00Z ECWMF CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA OF ROTATING A POTENT LOW
LEVEL JET NWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AT 900 MB IT
INCREASED FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST TO 80 KTS. GIVEN THE DEEP
COLD AIR IN PLACE...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE QUITE HIGH FOR A NOREASTER
EVEN WITH A LARGE INVERSION IN PLACE. EVEN A FRACTION OF THIS LOW
LEVEL JET MIXING DOWN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE HEAVIEST
SNWFL...YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS ABOVE 50 KTS NEAR THE
COAST. GIVEN THAT WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING ABOVE 30 KTS...THIS
SEEMS ENTIRELY REASONABLE. INCREASED WIND FORECAST SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. WIND POTENTIAL DECREASES FAIRLY QUICKLY THE
FURTHER INLAND ONE GOES...BUT GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...BEST WIND POTENTIAL WILL
OCCUR FROM THIS MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...

COLD HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NLY WINDS WILL ENSURE THAT TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC THRU THE DAY. EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE EVENT
WILL SEE SNWFL IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. STRONG SYSTEM TO
OUR S AND THOSE NLY WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP COASTAL FRONT
OFF SHORE...AND ANY ADDITIONAL QPF ENHANCEMENT OFF SHORE TOO. COLD
TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO COMBINE TO PRODUCE BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILLS. IF STRANDED OUT IN THE STORM...THESE CONDITIONS COULD
PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES OCCLUDES AND UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THRU WED.
THIS WILL CONTINUE -SN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH INTENSITY
WILL BE FAR LESS THAN THAT EXPERIENCED TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE
OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES LEADING TO
DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE OVERALL THEME IS
WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE CONUS...WITH AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SYNOPTIC
SNOWS ROUGHLY EVERY TWO DAYS...WITH FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY...THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAMES FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
AT MOMENT. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON A QUIET NOTE UNDER RIDGING
SURFACE AND ALOFT THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES BY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A GENERAL SNOWFALL ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...WEAK RIDGING FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY AS THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR IS DEVELOPING FROM SRN NH TO
COASTAL ME AT THIS HOUR. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS HEAVY SNWFL
BAND SLOWLY ROTATES NEWD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
KLEB AND KHIE WILL BE SLOWER TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID MORNING OR LATER. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL
SEE NNELY WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 KTS AT TIMES. SNWFL WINDS DOWN BY TUE
EVENING...THOUGH PCPN LINGERS INTO WED. COULD SEE SCATTERED IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LINGERING SHSN.

LONG TERM...

FRI...MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.
      NW SFC WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS...EXCEPT FOR OUTER WATERS S OF CAPE ELIZABETH. HERE A
PERIOD OF 65 KT GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY...SO HAVE ISSUED A HURRICANE
FORCE WIND WARNING. ALSO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ON THE WATER BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY THRU WED MORNING AS A RESULT.

LONG TERM...

THU NIGHT - SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES ARE BUILDING THIS MORNING RIGHT AROUND
HIGH TIDE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A TWO FOOT STORM SURGE WILL
ALLOW PORTLAND AND HAMPTON TO REACH THEIR FLOOD STAGE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON JUST PRIOR TO HIGH
TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO HIGH TIDES TODAY. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT FORTUNES ROCKS...JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS AND FERRY BEACHES
IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

NERACOOS SPLASH-OVER NOMOGRAMS ALSO SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ISSUES AT
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-
     011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS
AVIATION...LEGRO/SCHWIBS
MARINE...LEGRO/SCHWIBS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LEGRO/CANNON




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270932
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
432 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF
NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS TODAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS UPDATE...00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
LATCHED ONTO THE IDEA OF SLIGHTLY WEAKER S/WV FEATURE PHASING WITH
THE INITIAL STORM SYSTEM THAT EXITED THE EAST COAST YESTERDAY.
THIS HAS ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO SLIP FURTHER E...RATHER THAN A
STRONGER CAPTURE AND TUG BACK TO THE W. GFS...CMC-
REGIONAL...ECMWF...AND NAM ALL HAVE SIMILAR IDEAS REGARDING
EVOLUTION FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

SNOWFALL...

AT THIS HOUR A VERY INTENSE BAND OF SNWFL IS MORE OR LESS
PARALLELING THE COAST...AND SLOWLY INCHING NWWD. MODELED QPF HAS
BEEN KEYING ON THE COAST OR JUST INLAND FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW.
TOSSING QPF ASIDE AND LOOKING ALOFT...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF
FEATURE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AT H7. WITHIN THIS BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS THERE IS ALSO A DEFORMATION MAXIMUM. THE STRONGEST
BANDS OF SNWFL ARE FAVORED JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
DEFORMATION MAXIMUM...WITHIN THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS. AS OF
THE 06-09Z PERIOD THIS IS VERIFYING NICELY. BY 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SIGNAL PIVOTS INLAND MORE...AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
THRU 18Z. DURING THIS TIME BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS
BRIEFLY ATTEMPT TO NEAR MOIST ABSOLUTELY UNSTABLE ABOVE H7. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE REPORTS OF THUNDER SN...BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SNWFL RATES TO 2-4
INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HIGHEST SNWFL AMOUNTS
TOWARDS THE COAST SOME. THE OTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER WITH SNWFL
AMOUNTS IS VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND JUST N OF THE FORECAST AREA.
NLY WINDS WILL ADVECT THIS AIR SWD...ERODING THE NRN EDGE OF SNWFL
AS WE/VE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THAT IN COMBINATION WITH THE
EWD MODEL SHIFT WILL YIELD A MUCH SHARPER SNWFL GRADIENT THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST. FOR NOW ONLY SIGHTLY LOWERED AMOUNTS IN THE
N...BUT SUBSEQUENT UPDATES MAY NEED MORE AGGRESSIVE LOWERING OF
TOTALS.

WINDS...

27.00Z ECWMF CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA OF ROTATING A POTENT LOW
LEVEL JET NWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AT 900 MB IT
INCREASED FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST TO 80 KTS. GIVEN THE DEEP
COLD AIR IN PLACE...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE QUITE HIGH FOR A NOREASTER
EVEN WITH A LARGE INVERSION IN PLACE. EVEN A FRACTION OF THIS LOW
LEVEL JET MIXING DOWN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE HEAVIEST
SNWFL...YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS ABOVE 50 KTS NEAR THE
COAST. GIVEN THAT WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING ABOVE 30 KTS...THIS
SEEMS ENTIRELY REASONABLE. INCREASED WIND FORECAST SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. WIND POTENTIAL DECREASES FAIRLY QUICKLY THE
FURTHER INLAND ONE GOES...BUT GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...BEST WIND POTENTIAL WILL
OCCUR FROM THIS MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...

COLD HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NLY WINDS WILL ENSURE THAT TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC THRU THE DAY. EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE EVENT
WILL SEE SNWFL IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. STRONG SYSTEM TO
OUR S AND THOSE NLY WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP COASTAL FRONT
OFF SHORE...AND ANY ADDITIONAL QPF ENHANCEMENT OFF SHORE TOO. COLD
TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO COMBINE TO PRODUCE BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILLS. IF STRANDED OUT IN THE STORM...THESE CONDITIONS COULD
PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES OCCLUDES AND UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THRU WED.
THIS WILL CONTINUE -SN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH INTENSITY
WILL BE FAR LESS THAN THAT EXPERIENCED TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE
OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES LEADING TO
DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE OVERALL THEME IS
WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE CONUS...WITH AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SYNOPTIC
SNOWS ROUGHLY EVERY TWO DAYS...WITH FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY...THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAMES FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
AT MOMENT. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON A QUIET NOTE UNDER RIDGING
SURFACE AND ALOFT THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES BY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A GENERAL SNOWFALL ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...WEAK RIDGING FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY AS THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR IS DEVELOPING FROM SRN NH TO
COASTAL ME AT THIS HOUR. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS HEAVY SNWFL
BAND SLOWLY ROTATES NEWD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
KLEB AND KHIE WILL BE SLOWER TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID MORNING OR LATER. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL
SEE NNELY WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 KTS AT TIMES. SNWFL WINDS DOWN BY TUE
EVENING...THOUGH PCPN LINGERS INTO WED. COULD SEE SCATTERED IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LINGERING SHSN.

LONG TERM...

FRI...MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.
      NW SFC WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS...EXCEPT FOR OUTER WATERS S OF CAPE ELIZABETH. HERE A
PERIOD OF 65 KT GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY...SO HAVE ISSUED A HURRICANE
FORCE WIND WARNING. ALSO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ON THE WATER BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY THRU WED MORNING AS A RESULT.

LONG TERM...

THU NIGHT - SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES ARE BUILDING THIS MORNING RIGHT AROUND
HIGH TIDE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A TWO FOOT STORM SURGE WILL
ALLOW PORTLAND AND HAMPTON TO REACH THEIR FLOOD STAGE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON JUST PRIOR TO HIGH
TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO HIGH TIDES TODAY. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT FORTUNES ROCKS...JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS AND FERRY BEACHES
IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

NERACOOS SPLASH-OVER NOMOGRAMS ALSO SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ISSUES AT
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-
     011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS
AVIATION...LEGRO/SCHWIBS
MARINE...LEGRO/SCHWIBS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LEGRO/CANNON




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270932
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
432 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF
NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS TODAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS UPDATE...00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
LATCHED ONTO THE IDEA OF SLIGHTLY WEAKER S/WV FEATURE PHASING WITH
THE INITIAL STORM SYSTEM THAT EXITED THE EAST COAST YESTERDAY.
THIS HAS ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO SLIP FURTHER E...RATHER THAN A
STRONGER CAPTURE AND TUG BACK TO THE W. GFS...CMC-
REGIONAL...ECMWF...AND NAM ALL HAVE SIMILAR IDEAS REGARDING
EVOLUTION FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

SNOWFALL...

AT THIS HOUR A VERY INTENSE BAND OF SNWFL IS MORE OR LESS
PARALLELING THE COAST...AND SLOWLY INCHING NWWD. MODELED QPF HAS
BEEN KEYING ON THE COAST OR JUST INLAND FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW.
TOSSING QPF ASIDE AND LOOKING ALOFT...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF
FEATURE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AT H7. WITHIN THIS BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS THERE IS ALSO A DEFORMATION MAXIMUM. THE STRONGEST
BANDS OF SNWFL ARE FAVORED JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
DEFORMATION MAXIMUM...WITHIN THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS. AS OF
THE 06-09Z PERIOD THIS IS VERIFYING NICELY. BY 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SIGNAL PIVOTS INLAND MORE...AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
THRU 18Z. DURING THIS TIME BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS
BRIEFLY ATTEMPT TO NEAR MOIST ABSOLUTELY UNSTABLE ABOVE H7. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE REPORTS OF THUNDER SN...BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SNWFL RATES TO 2-4
INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HIGHEST SNWFL AMOUNTS
TOWARDS THE COAST SOME. THE OTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER WITH SNWFL
AMOUNTS IS VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND JUST N OF THE FORECAST AREA.
NLY WINDS WILL ADVECT THIS AIR SWD...ERODING THE NRN EDGE OF SNWFL
AS WE/VE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THAT IN COMBINATION WITH THE
EWD MODEL SHIFT WILL YIELD A MUCH SHARPER SNWFL GRADIENT THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST. FOR NOW ONLY SIGHTLY LOWERED AMOUNTS IN THE
N...BUT SUBSEQUENT UPDATES MAY NEED MORE AGGRESSIVE LOWERING OF
TOTALS.

WINDS...

27.00Z ECWMF CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA OF ROTATING A POTENT LOW
LEVEL JET NWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AT 900 MB IT
INCREASED FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST TO 80 KTS. GIVEN THE DEEP
COLD AIR IN PLACE...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE QUITE HIGH FOR A NOREASTER
EVEN WITH A LARGE INVERSION IN PLACE. EVEN A FRACTION OF THIS LOW
LEVEL JET MIXING DOWN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE HEAVIEST
SNWFL...YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS ABOVE 50 KTS NEAR THE
COAST. GIVEN THAT WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING ABOVE 30 KTS...THIS
SEEMS ENTIRELY REASONABLE. INCREASED WIND FORECAST SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. WIND POTENTIAL DECREASES FAIRLY QUICKLY THE
FURTHER INLAND ONE GOES...BUT GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...BEST WIND POTENTIAL WILL
OCCUR FROM THIS MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...

COLD HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NLY WINDS WILL ENSURE THAT TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC THRU THE DAY. EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE EVENT
WILL SEE SNWFL IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. STRONG SYSTEM TO
OUR S AND THOSE NLY WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP COASTAL FRONT
OFF SHORE...AND ANY ADDITIONAL QPF ENHANCEMENT OFF SHORE TOO. COLD
TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO COMBINE TO PRODUCE BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILLS. IF STRANDED OUT IN THE STORM...THESE CONDITIONS COULD
PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES OCCLUDES AND UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THRU WED.
THIS WILL CONTINUE -SN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH INTENSITY
WILL BE FAR LESS THAN THAT EXPERIENCED TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE
OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES LEADING TO
DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE OVERALL THEME IS
WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE CONUS...WITH AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SYNOPTIC
SNOWS ROUGHLY EVERY TWO DAYS...WITH FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY...THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAMES FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
AT MOMENT. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON A QUIET NOTE UNDER RIDGING
SURFACE AND ALOFT THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES BY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A GENERAL SNOWFALL ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...WEAK RIDGING FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY AS THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR IS DEVELOPING FROM SRN NH TO
COASTAL ME AT THIS HOUR. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS HEAVY SNWFL
BAND SLOWLY ROTATES NEWD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
KLEB AND KHIE WILL BE SLOWER TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID MORNING OR LATER. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL
SEE NNELY WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 KTS AT TIMES. SNWFL WINDS DOWN BY TUE
EVENING...THOUGH PCPN LINGERS INTO WED. COULD SEE SCATTERED IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LINGERING SHSN.

LONG TERM...

FRI...MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.
      NW SFC WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS...EXCEPT FOR OUTER WATERS S OF CAPE ELIZABETH. HERE A
PERIOD OF 65 KT GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY...SO HAVE ISSUED A HURRICANE
FORCE WIND WARNING. ALSO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ON THE WATER BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY THRU WED MORNING AS A RESULT.

LONG TERM...

THU NIGHT - SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES ARE BUILDING THIS MORNING RIGHT AROUND
HIGH TIDE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A TWO FOOT STORM SURGE WILL
ALLOW PORTLAND AND HAMPTON TO REACH THEIR FLOOD STAGE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON JUST PRIOR TO HIGH
TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO HIGH TIDES TODAY. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT FORTUNES ROCKS...JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS AND FERRY BEACHES
IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

NERACOOS SPLASH-OVER NOMOGRAMS ALSO SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ISSUES AT
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-
     011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS
AVIATION...LEGRO/SCHWIBS
MARINE...LEGRO/SCHWIBS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LEGRO/CANNON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270842
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
342 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CRIPPLING AND HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL IMPACT THE
REGION INTO TONIGHT. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR LIKELY FOLLOWS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD WITH 1 TO 2 FT OF
  SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
* STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
* MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

WV LOOP SHOWS DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH
WELL DEFINED COMMA HEAD WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL LIFTING NWD
INTO NEW ENG. RAPID CYCLOGENESIS IN PROGRESS WITH SFC LOW DOWN TO
984 MB. THERE ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK...BUT GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF A TRACK CLOSE TO THE BENCHMARK AS A SUB 980 MB
STORM AROUND 12Z. ONLY SLOW MOVEMENT NORTH DURING TODAY AS THE
LOW GETS CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH WILL PROLONG
OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW THROUGH TODAY.

SNOWFALL / BANDING / BLIZZARD...

VERY INTENSE MESOSCALE BAND SETTING UP ACROSS N CT THROUGH
CENTRAL/NE MA ASSOCD WITH THE STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW PRODUCING STRONG
OMEGA THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. PROBABLY SEEING 2-4"/HR
SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS BAND. MEANWHILE...PULSES OF HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS WHICH ARE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE
OCEAN ACROSS SE MA. VERY HEAVY CLUSTER OVER THE ISLANDS WILL BE
MOVING UP ACROSS SE MA NEXT 1-2 HOURS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVER 6 C/KM ACROSS SE NEW ENG SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT
CONVECTION AND THUNDER SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES 2-3"/HOUR WILL BE
DEVELOPING IN SE MA AND PORTIONS OF CAPE COD.

HOW THESE BANDS EVOLVE TODAY WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE SNOWFALL
FORECAST AND THIS WILL BE TRICKY. GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE BEST MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS E MA WHILE NAM IS FURTHER WEST ACROSS
CENTRAL MA INTO CT. NAM SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS THE BEST AND
KEEP THIS BAND IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA BEFORE WEAKENING AND
MOVING EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCD WITH THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS SE MA WILL RESULT IN A
SECONDARY MAX IN EASTERN MA INCLUDING CAPE COD WITH OCCASIONAL
HEAVY SNOW.

WE HAVE ONLY MADE SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO THE SNOW
ACCUM...LOWERING SLIGHTLY IN THE BERKSHIRES AND INCREASING ACROSS
CAPE COD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANAL. STILL LOOKING FOR MAX
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE CT THROUGH CENTRAL MA...WITH SECONDARY MAX
ACROSS E MA TO THE CAPE COD CANAL. AROUND 2 FT EXPECTED IN THIS
AREA...LOCALLY 30-36 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE PERSISTENT BANDS SET
UP. LESSER AMOUNTS IN BETWEEN BANDS.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WIND WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF NEW ENG WITH
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILLS WILL
BE DOWN INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ADDING TO THE
SEVERITY AND LIFE THREATENING ASPECT OF THE STORM. TRAVEL WILL BE
NEAR IMPOSSIBLE.

WIND...

CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OCCURRING THROUGH ABOUT
18Z FOR THE CAPE/ISLANDS TO COASTAL SE MA AS LOW PRES DEEPENS NEAR
THE BENCHMARK. LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 75 KTS PERSISTS IN THIS
REGION. SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR NEAR HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS TO
75 MPH IN THIS REGION...WITH GUSTS TO 50-60 BACK TO THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND 30-40 FURTHER IN THE INTERIOR. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE AND
WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE MA AND ESPECIALLY
THE CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL ADD TO LOAD.

TEMPS...

COASTAL FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SE MA WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS WEST
OF THE FRONT AND 20S TO LOWER 30S TO THE EAST. EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 TODAY FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...AND EVENTUALLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S SE
COASTAL MA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DISCUSSION CONTINUES BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEK
* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

26/12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR OVERALL
SYNOPTIC HANDLING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE STILL
SOME CRUCIAL DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT THOUGH. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS
APPROACH.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH A FRESH...DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE WITH DIMINISHING
WIND...SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS STILL LIKELY TOO HIGH. WILL MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
LATER THIS WEEK TO DIAL THIS IN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. THE PRIMARY TRACK
OF A CLIPPER LOW SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SNOWFALL. PLOWABLE AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...EVEN WITH THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.

THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR APPROACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION IF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CAN DEVELOP AND GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.  29/12Z ECMWF HAS COME CLOSER TO THE GFS
SOLUTION...BOTH IN TRACK AND TIMING. AT PRESENT...WILL PLACE A
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO SAY MORE THAN THAT AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM IS MOVING INTO THE REGION. HEAVY SNOW WILL
MOVE UP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 1-3 INCH PER HOUR RATES...AND LOCAL 4
INCH PER HOUR RATES POSSIBLE. NORTH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS IN THE CT VALLEY
AND CENTRAL MASS...40-50 KNOTS IN THE BOS-PVD COASTAL PLAIN
AREA...AND 50-70 KNOTS CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST. EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT MOVE IN AT 2000 FEET AGL LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST
AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS. VERY STRONG WIND CONTINUE WITH
GUSTS 70-80 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MASS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY AND DIMINISHES
TUESDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT WITH SEAS 30-35 FT OVER THE E
WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE
OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
PERIOD OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL
KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE...WE COULD SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND A
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST INTENSIFIES. THIS COULD RESULT IN
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING TODAY ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST FOR BOTH THIS MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLES ***

POWERFUL WINTER STORM DEVELOPING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AND
COMBINING WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC TO YIELD
HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING AND INTO MIDDAY ACROSS
NANTUCKET...CAPE COD AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY. TIDE GAUGES ALONG
THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE AT 3 AM INDICATING STORM SURGE VALUES
ALREADY 2.5 TO 3.0 FT! THIS WILL YIELD MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THIS MORNING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE HIGHEST IMPACT
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE NANTUCKET/CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES AND
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY INCLUDING THE
COMMUNITIES OF HULL/MARSHFIELD AND SCITUATE.

COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO CAPE ANN HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FLOODING SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE SOUTH
SHORE.

THESE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION OF SEA
WATER. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS LIKELY AS WELL GIVEN SEAS OFFSHORE HAVE
ALREADY CLIMBED TO 18 TO 22 FT AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
COULD SEE OFFSHORE SEAS 25 TO 35 FT THIS AFTERNOON! THIS WILL RESULT
LARGE WAVES BATTERING SEAWALLS AND OTHER SHORELINE STRUCTURES. IN
ADDITION THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH THE LARGE WAVE
ACTION TO YIELD SEVERE BEACH EROSION.

AS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...WATER LEVELS MAY BE ABOUT A
HALF A FOOT LOWER HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE AT LEAST AS LARGE AS THIS
MORNING OR POSSIBLE A FEW FEET HIGHER. THUS IMPACTS WILL BE SIMILAR
HOWEVER THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO
CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES SUCH AS SANDWICH HARBOR. THUS LESS IMPACT
FOR NANTUCKET THAN THIS MORNING. NEVERTHELESS AT LEAST MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR NANTUCKET.

SO IN A NUTSHELL...NO CHANGES TO ANY HEADLINES WITH COASTAL FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAINING IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT TWO TIDE CYCLES.

AS FOR RI...THE RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING HAS COMMENCED WITH
HIGH TIDE ALREADY OCCURRING. THEREFORE THE RISK HAS DIMINISHED AND
THE ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ006>008.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK/99
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270842
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
342 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CRIPPLING AND HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL IMPACT THE
REGION INTO TONIGHT. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR LIKELY FOLLOWS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD WITH 1 TO 2 FT OF
  SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
* STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
* MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

WV LOOP SHOWS DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH
WELL DEFINED COMMA HEAD WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL LIFTING NWD
INTO NEW ENG. RAPID CYCLOGENESIS IN PROGRESS WITH SFC LOW DOWN TO
984 MB. THERE ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK...BUT GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF A TRACK CLOSE TO THE BENCHMARK AS A SUB 980 MB
STORM AROUND 12Z. ONLY SLOW MOVEMENT NORTH DURING TODAY AS THE
LOW GETS CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH WILL PROLONG
OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW THROUGH TODAY.

SNOWFALL / BANDING / BLIZZARD...

VERY INTENSE MESOSCALE BAND SETTING UP ACROSS N CT THROUGH
CENTRAL/NE MA ASSOCD WITH THE STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW PRODUCING STRONG
OMEGA THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. PROBABLY SEEING 2-4"/HR
SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS BAND. MEANWHILE...PULSES OF HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS WHICH ARE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE
OCEAN ACROSS SE MA. VERY HEAVY CLUSTER OVER THE ISLANDS WILL BE
MOVING UP ACROSS SE MA NEXT 1-2 HOURS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVER 6 C/KM ACROSS SE NEW ENG SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT
CONVECTION AND THUNDER SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES 2-3"/HOUR WILL BE
DEVELOPING IN SE MA AND PORTIONS OF CAPE COD.

HOW THESE BANDS EVOLVE TODAY WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE SNOWFALL
FORECAST AND THIS WILL BE TRICKY. GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE BEST MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS E MA WHILE NAM IS FURTHER WEST ACROSS
CENTRAL MA INTO CT. NAM SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS THE BEST AND
KEEP THIS BAND IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA BEFORE WEAKENING AND
MOVING EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCD WITH THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS SE MA WILL RESULT IN A
SECONDARY MAX IN EASTERN MA INCLUDING CAPE COD WITH OCCASIONAL
HEAVY SNOW.

WE HAVE ONLY MADE SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO THE SNOW
ACCUM...LOWERING SLIGHTLY IN THE BERKSHIRES AND INCREASING ACROSS
CAPE COD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANAL. STILL LOOKING FOR MAX
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE CT THROUGH CENTRAL MA...WITH SECONDARY MAX
ACROSS E MA TO THE CAPE COD CANAL. AROUND 2 FT EXPECTED IN THIS
AREA...LOCALLY 30-36 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE PERSISTENT BANDS SET
UP. LESSER AMOUNTS IN BETWEEN BANDS.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WIND WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF NEW ENG WITH
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILLS WILL
BE DOWN INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ADDING TO THE
SEVERITY AND LIFE THREATENING ASPECT OF THE STORM. TRAVEL WILL BE
NEAR IMPOSSIBLE.

WIND...

CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OCCURRING THROUGH ABOUT
18Z FOR THE CAPE/ISLANDS TO COASTAL SE MA AS LOW PRES DEEPENS NEAR
THE BENCHMARK. LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 75 KTS PERSISTS IN THIS
REGION. SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR NEAR HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS TO
75 MPH IN THIS REGION...WITH GUSTS TO 50-60 BACK TO THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND 30-40 FURTHER IN THE INTERIOR. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE AND
WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE MA AND ESPECIALLY
THE CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL ADD TO LOAD.

TEMPS...

COASTAL FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SE MA WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS WEST
OF THE FRONT AND 20S TO LOWER 30S TO THE EAST. EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 TODAY FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...AND EVENTUALLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S SE
COASTAL MA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DISCUSSION CONTINUES BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEK
* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

26/12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR OVERALL
SYNOPTIC HANDLING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE STILL
SOME CRUCIAL DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT THOUGH. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS
APPROACH.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH A FRESH...DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE WITH DIMINISHING
WIND...SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS STILL LIKELY TOO HIGH. WILL MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
LATER THIS WEEK TO DIAL THIS IN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. THE PRIMARY TRACK
OF A CLIPPER LOW SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SNOWFALL. PLOWABLE AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...EVEN WITH THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.

THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR APPROACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION IF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CAN DEVELOP AND GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.  29/12Z ECMWF HAS COME CLOSER TO THE GFS
SOLUTION...BOTH IN TRACK AND TIMING. AT PRESENT...WILL PLACE A
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO SAY MORE THAN THAT AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM IS MOVING INTO THE REGION. HEAVY SNOW WILL
MOVE UP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 1-3 INCH PER HOUR RATES...AND LOCAL 4
INCH PER HOUR RATES POSSIBLE. NORTH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS IN THE CT VALLEY
AND CENTRAL MASS...40-50 KNOTS IN THE BOS-PVD COASTAL PLAIN
AREA...AND 50-70 KNOTS CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST. EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT MOVE IN AT 2000 FEET AGL LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST
AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS. VERY STRONG WIND CONTINUE WITH
GUSTS 70-80 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MASS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY AND DIMINISHES
TUESDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT WITH SEAS 30-35 FT OVER THE E
WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE
OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
PERIOD OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL
KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE...WE COULD SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND A
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST INTENSIFIES. THIS COULD RESULT IN
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING TODAY ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST FOR BOTH THIS MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLES ***

POWERFUL WINTER STORM DEVELOPING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AND
COMBINING WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC TO YIELD
HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING AND INTO MIDDAY ACROSS
NANTUCKET...CAPE COD AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY. TIDE GAUGES ALONG
THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE AT 3 AM INDICATING STORM SURGE VALUES
ALREADY 2.5 TO 3.0 FT! THIS WILL YIELD MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THIS MORNING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE HIGHEST IMPACT
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE NANTUCKET/CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES AND
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY INCLUDING THE
COMMUNITIES OF HULL/MARSHFIELD AND SCITUATE.

COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO CAPE ANN HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FLOODING SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE SOUTH
SHORE.

THESE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION OF SEA
WATER. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS LIKELY AS WELL GIVEN SEAS OFFSHORE HAVE
ALREADY CLIMBED TO 18 TO 22 FT AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
COULD SEE OFFSHORE SEAS 25 TO 35 FT THIS AFTERNOON! THIS WILL RESULT
LARGE WAVES BATTERING SEAWALLS AND OTHER SHORELINE STRUCTURES. IN
ADDITION THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH THE LARGE WAVE
ACTION TO YIELD SEVERE BEACH EROSION.

AS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...WATER LEVELS MAY BE ABOUT A
HALF A FOOT LOWER HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE AT LEAST AS LARGE AS THIS
MORNING OR POSSIBLE A FEW FEET HIGHER. THUS IMPACTS WILL BE SIMILAR
HOWEVER THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO
CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES SUCH AS SANDWICH HARBOR. THUS LESS IMPACT
FOR NANTUCKET THAN THIS MORNING. NEVERTHELESS AT LEAST MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR NANTUCKET.

SO IN A NUTSHELL...NO CHANGES TO ANY HEADLINES WITH COASTAL FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAINING IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT TWO TIDE CYCLES.

AS FOR RI...THE RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING HAS COMMENCED WITH
HIGH TIDE ALREADY OCCURRING. THEREFORE THE RISK HAS DIMINISHED AND
THE ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ006>008.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK/99
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270842
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
342 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CRIPPLING AND HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL IMPACT THE
REGION INTO TONIGHT. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR LIKELY FOLLOWS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD WITH 1 TO 2 FT OF
  SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
* STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
* MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

WV LOOP SHOWS DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH
WELL DEFINED COMMA HEAD WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL LIFTING NWD
INTO NEW ENG. RAPID CYCLOGENESIS IN PROGRESS WITH SFC LOW DOWN TO
984 MB. THERE ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK...BUT GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF A TRACK CLOSE TO THE BENCHMARK AS A SUB 980 MB
STORM AROUND 12Z. ONLY SLOW MOVEMENT NORTH DURING TODAY AS THE
LOW GETS CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH WILL PROLONG
OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW THROUGH TODAY.

SNOWFALL / BANDING / BLIZZARD...

VERY INTENSE MESOSCALE BAND SETTING UP ACROSS N CT THROUGH
CENTRAL/NE MA ASSOCD WITH THE STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW PRODUCING STRONG
OMEGA THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. PROBABLY SEEING 2-4"/HR
SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS BAND. MEANWHILE...PULSES OF HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS WHICH ARE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE
OCEAN ACROSS SE MA. VERY HEAVY CLUSTER OVER THE ISLANDS WILL BE
MOVING UP ACROSS SE MA NEXT 1-2 HOURS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVER 6 C/KM ACROSS SE NEW ENG SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT
CONVECTION AND THUNDER SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES 2-3"/HOUR WILL BE
DEVELOPING IN SE MA AND PORTIONS OF CAPE COD.

HOW THESE BANDS EVOLVE TODAY WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE SNOWFALL
FORECAST AND THIS WILL BE TRICKY. GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE BEST MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS E MA WHILE NAM IS FURTHER WEST ACROSS
CENTRAL MA INTO CT. NAM SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS THE BEST AND
KEEP THIS BAND IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA BEFORE WEAKENING AND
MOVING EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCD WITH THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS SE MA WILL RESULT IN A
SECONDARY MAX IN EASTERN MA INCLUDING CAPE COD WITH OCCASIONAL
HEAVY SNOW.

WE HAVE ONLY MADE SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO THE SNOW
ACCUM...LOWERING SLIGHTLY IN THE BERKSHIRES AND INCREASING ACROSS
CAPE COD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANAL. STILL LOOKING FOR MAX
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE CT THROUGH CENTRAL MA...WITH SECONDARY MAX
ACROSS E MA TO THE CAPE COD CANAL. AROUND 2 FT EXPECTED IN THIS
AREA...LOCALLY 30-36 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE PERSISTENT BANDS SET
UP. LESSER AMOUNTS IN BETWEEN BANDS.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WIND WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF NEW ENG WITH
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILLS WILL
BE DOWN INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ADDING TO THE
SEVERITY AND LIFE THREATENING ASPECT OF THE STORM. TRAVEL WILL BE
NEAR IMPOSSIBLE.

WIND...

CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OCCURRING THROUGH ABOUT
18Z FOR THE CAPE/ISLANDS TO COASTAL SE MA AS LOW PRES DEEPENS NEAR
THE BENCHMARK. LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 75 KTS PERSISTS IN THIS
REGION. SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR NEAR HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS TO
75 MPH IN THIS REGION...WITH GUSTS TO 50-60 BACK TO THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND 30-40 FURTHER IN THE INTERIOR. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE AND
WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE MA AND ESPECIALLY
THE CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL ADD TO LOAD.

TEMPS...

COASTAL FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SE MA WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS WEST
OF THE FRONT AND 20S TO LOWER 30S TO THE EAST. EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 TODAY FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...AND EVENTUALLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S SE
COASTAL MA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DISCUSSION CONTINUES BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEK
* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

26/12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR OVERALL
SYNOPTIC HANDLING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE STILL
SOME CRUCIAL DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT THOUGH. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS
APPROACH.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH A FRESH...DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE WITH DIMINISHING
WIND...SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS STILL LIKELY TOO HIGH. WILL MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
LATER THIS WEEK TO DIAL THIS IN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. THE PRIMARY TRACK
OF A CLIPPER LOW SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SNOWFALL. PLOWABLE AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...EVEN WITH THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.

THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR APPROACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION IF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CAN DEVELOP AND GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.  29/12Z ECMWF HAS COME CLOSER TO THE GFS
SOLUTION...BOTH IN TRACK AND TIMING. AT PRESENT...WILL PLACE A
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO SAY MORE THAN THAT AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM IS MOVING INTO THE REGION. HEAVY SNOW WILL
MOVE UP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 1-3 INCH PER HOUR RATES...AND LOCAL 4
INCH PER HOUR RATES POSSIBLE. NORTH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS IN THE CT VALLEY
AND CENTRAL MASS...40-50 KNOTS IN THE BOS-PVD COASTAL PLAIN
AREA...AND 50-70 KNOTS CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST. EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT MOVE IN AT 2000 FEET AGL LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST
AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS. VERY STRONG WIND CONTINUE WITH
GUSTS 70-80 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MASS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY AND DIMINISHES
TUESDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT WITH SEAS 30-35 FT OVER THE E
WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE
OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
PERIOD OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL
KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE...WE COULD SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND A
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST INTENSIFIES. THIS COULD RESULT IN
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING TODAY ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST FOR BOTH THIS MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLES ***

POWERFUL WINTER STORM DEVELOPING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AND
COMBINING WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC TO YIELD
HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING AND INTO MIDDAY ACROSS
NANTUCKET...CAPE COD AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY. TIDE GAUGES ALONG
THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE AT 3 AM INDICATING STORM SURGE VALUES
ALREADY 2.5 TO 3.0 FT! THIS WILL YIELD MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THIS MORNING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE HIGHEST IMPACT
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE NANTUCKET/CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES AND
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY INCLUDING THE
COMMUNITIES OF HULL/MARSHFIELD AND SCITUATE.

COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO CAPE ANN HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FLOODING SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE SOUTH
SHORE.

THESE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION OF SEA
WATER. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS LIKELY AS WELL GIVEN SEAS OFFSHORE HAVE
ALREADY CLIMBED TO 18 TO 22 FT AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
COULD SEE OFFSHORE SEAS 25 TO 35 FT THIS AFTERNOON! THIS WILL RESULT
LARGE WAVES BATTERING SEAWALLS AND OTHER SHORELINE STRUCTURES. IN
ADDITION THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH THE LARGE WAVE
ACTION TO YIELD SEVERE BEACH EROSION.

AS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...WATER LEVELS MAY BE ABOUT A
HALF A FOOT LOWER HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE AT LEAST AS LARGE AS THIS
MORNING OR POSSIBLE A FEW FEET HIGHER. THUS IMPACTS WILL BE SIMILAR
HOWEVER THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO
CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES SUCH AS SANDWICH HARBOR. THUS LESS IMPACT
FOR NANTUCKET THAN THIS MORNING. NEVERTHELESS AT LEAST MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR NANTUCKET.

SO IN A NUTSHELL...NO CHANGES TO ANY HEADLINES WITH COASTAL FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAINING IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT TWO TIDE CYCLES.

AS FOR RI...THE RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING HAS COMMENCED WITH
HIGH TIDE ALREADY OCCURRING. THEREFORE THE RISK HAS DIMINISHED AND
THE ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ006>008.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK/99
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270842
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
342 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CRIPPLING AND HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL IMPACT THE
REGION INTO TONIGHT. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR LIKELY FOLLOWS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD WITH 1 TO 2 FT OF
  SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
* STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
* MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

WV LOOP SHOWS DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH
WELL DEFINED COMMA HEAD WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL LIFTING NWD
INTO NEW ENG. RAPID CYCLOGENESIS IN PROGRESS WITH SFC LOW DOWN TO
984 MB. THERE ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK...BUT GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF A TRACK CLOSE TO THE BENCHMARK AS A SUB 980 MB
STORM AROUND 12Z. ONLY SLOW MOVEMENT NORTH DURING TODAY AS THE
LOW GETS CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH WILL PROLONG
OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW THROUGH TODAY.

SNOWFALL / BANDING / BLIZZARD...

VERY INTENSE MESOSCALE BAND SETTING UP ACROSS N CT THROUGH
CENTRAL/NE MA ASSOCD WITH THE STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW PRODUCING STRONG
OMEGA THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. PROBABLY SEEING 2-4"/HR
SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS BAND. MEANWHILE...PULSES OF HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS WHICH ARE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE
OCEAN ACROSS SE MA. VERY HEAVY CLUSTER OVER THE ISLANDS WILL BE
MOVING UP ACROSS SE MA NEXT 1-2 HOURS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVER 6 C/KM ACROSS SE NEW ENG SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT
CONVECTION AND THUNDER SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES 2-3"/HOUR WILL BE
DEVELOPING IN SE MA AND PORTIONS OF CAPE COD.

HOW THESE BANDS EVOLVE TODAY WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE SNOWFALL
FORECAST AND THIS WILL BE TRICKY. GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE BEST MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS E MA WHILE NAM IS FURTHER WEST ACROSS
CENTRAL MA INTO CT. NAM SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS THE BEST AND
KEEP THIS BAND IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA BEFORE WEAKENING AND
MOVING EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCD WITH THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS SE MA WILL RESULT IN A
SECONDARY MAX IN EASTERN MA INCLUDING CAPE COD WITH OCCASIONAL
HEAVY SNOW.

WE HAVE ONLY MADE SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO THE SNOW
ACCUM...LOWERING SLIGHTLY IN THE BERKSHIRES AND INCREASING ACROSS
CAPE COD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANAL. STILL LOOKING FOR MAX
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE CT THROUGH CENTRAL MA...WITH SECONDARY MAX
ACROSS E MA TO THE CAPE COD CANAL. AROUND 2 FT EXPECTED IN THIS
AREA...LOCALLY 30-36 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE PERSISTENT BANDS SET
UP. LESSER AMOUNTS IN BETWEEN BANDS.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WIND WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF NEW ENG WITH
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILLS WILL
BE DOWN INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ADDING TO THE
SEVERITY AND LIFE THREATENING ASPECT OF THE STORM. TRAVEL WILL BE
NEAR IMPOSSIBLE.

WIND...

CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OCCURRING THROUGH ABOUT
18Z FOR THE CAPE/ISLANDS TO COASTAL SE MA AS LOW PRES DEEPENS NEAR
THE BENCHMARK. LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 75 KTS PERSISTS IN THIS
REGION. SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR NEAR HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS TO
75 MPH IN THIS REGION...WITH GUSTS TO 50-60 BACK TO THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND 30-40 FURTHER IN THE INTERIOR. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE AND
WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE MA AND ESPECIALLY
THE CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL ADD TO LOAD.

TEMPS...

COASTAL FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SE MA WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS WEST
OF THE FRONT AND 20S TO LOWER 30S TO THE EAST. EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 TODAY FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...AND EVENTUALLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S SE
COASTAL MA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DISCUSSION CONTINUES BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEK
* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

26/12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR OVERALL
SYNOPTIC HANDLING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE STILL
SOME CRUCIAL DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT THOUGH. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS
APPROACH.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH A FRESH...DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE WITH DIMINISHING
WIND...SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS STILL LIKELY TOO HIGH. WILL MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
LATER THIS WEEK TO DIAL THIS IN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. THE PRIMARY TRACK
OF A CLIPPER LOW SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SNOWFALL. PLOWABLE AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...EVEN WITH THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.

THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR APPROACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION IF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CAN DEVELOP AND GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.  29/12Z ECMWF HAS COME CLOSER TO THE GFS
SOLUTION...BOTH IN TRACK AND TIMING. AT PRESENT...WILL PLACE A
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO SAY MORE THAN THAT AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM IS MOVING INTO THE REGION. HEAVY SNOW WILL
MOVE UP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 1-3 INCH PER HOUR RATES...AND LOCAL 4
INCH PER HOUR RATES POSSIBLE. NORTH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS IN THE CT VALLEY
AND CENTRAL MASS...40-50 KNOTS IN THE BOS-PVD COASTAL PLAIN
AREA...AND 50-70 KNOTS CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST. EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT MOVE IN AT 2000 FEET AGL LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST
AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS. VERY STRONG WIND CONTINUE WITH
GUSTS 70-80 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MASS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY AND DIMINISHES
TUESDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT WITH SEAS 30-35 FT OVER THE E
WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE
OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
PERIOD OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL
KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE...WE COULD SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND A
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST INTENSIFIES. THIS COULD RESULT IN
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING TODAY ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST FOR BOTH THIS MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLES ***

POWERFUL WINTER STORM DEVELOPING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AND
COMBINING WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC TO YIELD
HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING AND INTO MIDDAY ACROSS
NANTUCKET...CAPE COD AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY. TIDE GAUGES ALONG
THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE AT 3 AM INDICATING STORM SURGE VALUES
ALREADY 2.5 TO 3.0 FT! THIS WILL YIELD MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THIS MORNING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE HIGHEST IMPACT
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE NANTUCKET/CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES AND
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY INCLUDING THE
COMMUNITIES OF HULL/MARSHFIELD AND SCITUATE.

COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO CAPE ANN HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FLOODING SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE SOUTH
SHORE.

THESE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION OF SEA
WATER. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS LIKELY AS WELL GIVEN SEAS OFFSHORE HAVE
ALREADY CLIMBED TO 18 TO 22 FT AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
COULD SEE OFFSHORE SEAS 25 TO 35 FT THIS AFTERNOON! THIS WILL RESULT
LARGE WAVES BATTERING SEAWALLS AND OTHER SHORELINE STRUCTURES. IN
ADDITION THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH THE LARGE WAVE
ACTION TO YIELD SEVERE BEACH EROSION.

AS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...WATER LEVELS MAY BE ABOUT A
HALF A FOOT LOWER HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE AT LEAST AS LARGE AS THIS
MORNING OR POSSIBLE A FEW FEET HIGHER. THUS IMPACTS WILL BE SIMILAR
HOWEVER THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO
CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES SUCH AS SANDWICH HARBOR. THUS LESS IMPACT
FOR NANTUCKET THAN THIS MORNING. NEVERTHELESS AT LEAST MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR NANTUCKET.

SO IN A NUTSHELL...NO CHANGES TO ANY HEADLINES WITH COASTAL FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAINING IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT TWO TIDE CYCLES.

AS FOR RI...THE RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING HAS COMMENCED WITH
HIGH TIDE ALREADY OCCURRING. THEREFORE THE RISK HAS DIMINISHED AND
THE ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ006>008.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK/99
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270625
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
125 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL
IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TRAVEL WILL BECOME
IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR
LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD
 - SERIOUS LIFE-THREATENING STORM / TRAVEL DISCOURAGED!
 - 1 TO 2 FT OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SNOW-BANDING
 - WHITE OUT CONDITIONS / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES
 - STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
 - MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

930 PM UPDATE...
WV LOOP SHOWS CLASSIC CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE WITH WELL DEFINED
COMMA HEAD OFF MID ATLC COAST WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL
LIFTING NWD INTO NEW ENG. STILL PLENTY OF JET ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
TO THE SE US COAST WITH TRAILING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE/MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION OFF NC COAST WITH SCT LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED. IT IS
THIS SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RESULT IN DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
AND EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENG.

FIRST MESOSCALE BAND LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO
RI AND SE MA THIS EVENING ASSOCD WITH ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES.
WILL SEE OCCASIONAL BANDS LIFT N ACROSS SNE TONIGHT WITH TWO
DISTINCT BANDS LIKELY DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE. FIRST
ASSOCD WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW DEEPENS
AND THIS BAND WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS CT AND CENTRAL MA AND
POSSIBLY FURTHER W INTO W MA DURING TUE. THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF
THIS BAND IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THEN VERY STRONG BANDING SIGNAL
ASSOCD WITH LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
LIFTING ACROSS SE NEW ENG 08-15Z. THIS BAND WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCD
WITH 2-3"/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS SE MA. OTHER NOTABLE FEATURE
IS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 6 C/KM ACROSS SE NEW ENG SUGGESTING
POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION AND THUNDER SNOW WITH ISOLD 4"/HR
RATES.

COASTAL FRONT CURRENTLY WEST OF I95 EXTENDING FROM BETWEEN BED-
BOS TO NW RI. AS SFC LOW APPROACHES BENCHMARK LATE TONIGHT AND
TUE MORNING EXPECT THIS FRONT TO MOVE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR WITH TEMPS CRASHING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN INCLUDING BOS AND PVD.

ONLY CHANGE TO UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE SNOW ACROSS ACK. RECEIVED
REPORT OF 4.5" AS OF 845 PM AND EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE TO AT
LEAST 06Z BEFORE POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

*/ OVERVIEW...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A CRIPPLING/HISTORIC BLIZZARD IMPACTING
S NEW ENGLAND. NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY INTENSIFIES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SE OF NANTUCKET NEAR THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK NE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY ALONG
AN OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENHANCED BY HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED N
ACROSS E CANADA. CLASSIC CONVEYOR BELTS BENEATH H3 JET COUPLING AXES
OF RRQ / LFQ YIELDS STRONG DIFFLUENT MOTIONS ALOFT. LOW VERTICALLY
STACKS / FILLS BECOMING CAPTURED / STALLING BENEATH THE CLOSING
LOW ALOFT RESULTING IN A SLOW-MOVING / LONG-DURATION STORM. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OF 20-30 MB IN 18 HRS. ALREADY ONGOING AS LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE INITIAL NEGATIVE-TILT AHEAD OF
WHICH THE BAROCLINIC-LEAF STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT. LOTS OF OFFSHORE
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY INDICATIVE THAT THIS STORM IS GETTING
BEEFY/INTENSIFYING. ITS BOMBOGENESIS BABY!

KEY TO THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF THE CLOSING H85 / H7 LOW AND
PARENT CYCLONIC WARM- AND DRY-CONVEYOR BELT MOTIONS. PRESENTLY AN
OPEN-WAVE AHEAD OF WHICH A SW-NE BANDING SIGNATURE IS SEEN PER WSR-
88D RETURNS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL F-GEN FORCING ALOFT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE AND IMPACT S/SE NEW ENGLAND FROM NOW INTO
TONIGHT /1-2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES LATE/. THE BAND WILL PIVOT
SSW-NNE AND TROWAL REARWARD OF BOMBING LOW AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEIGHBORED WITH -EPV /POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY/ OF HIGH THETA-E AIR BELOW STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
YIELDS AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SNOWBAND AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSNOW. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HR AROUND
MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEFORMATION ZONE EXPECTED OF MODERATE-HEAVY
SNOW. DECENT STAR-SIGNATURES WITHIN FORECAST SNOW-BANDING WITH
STRONG LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH-ZONE.

WHILE THAT IS ONE FORECAST AREA OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING...ANOTHER
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS MAXIMIZED BENEATH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS DRY AIR AT -10C E...SO ICE SHOULD
BE PRESENT AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER THRU WHICH STRONG FORCING
SHOULD OCCUR. THIS BANDING EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER SE NEW ENGLAND
ADDING MORE SNOW ON TOP OF THE INITIAL FRONT-END THUMP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES W TO E AS THE LOW PULLS OUT TO SEA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING REARWARD AROUND THE
LOW WILL LEND TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OF WHICH WILL INVIGORATE ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE BANDING THOUGH NOT
AS WIDESPREAD...MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS
AND THE LOW STACKS / OCCLUDES LENDING TO ITS DYING STAGE. ALL THAT
WILL BE LEFT IS ROBUST NW-WINDS DRAWING COLDER AIR S GENERATING
FAIRLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES...ESPECIALLY IN WAKE OF A DEEP-LAYER
OF SNOW ANTICIPATED.

OVERALL WENT WITH MESOSCALE MODELS /MAINLY THE NAM WITH A TOUCH
OF THE WRF/ ALONG WITH A EC/WPC BLEND POINT TO THE TWO AREAS IN
QUESTION FOR SNOW-BANDING. ALL OTHER MODELS /GFS-CANADIAN-UKMET/
WERE CLUSTERED A BIT FASTER. OVERALL IT REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS
THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OF LOW POSITIONING AND
THERE REMAINS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

SO A WORD OF CAUTION. WHILE THERE IS FOCUS OF TWO AREAS ACROSS S NEW
ENGLAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH A LULL IN BETWEEN...THIS IS
AN UNPRECEDENTED STORM FOR ALL S NEW ENGLAND FOR WHICH PREPARATIONS
SHOULD HAVE BEEN MADE AND ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN ON A SIMILAR NATURE
NO MATTER IF YOU`RE UNDER A BLIZZARD OR WINTER STORM WARNING. THIS
IS A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM. YOU SHOULD NOT BE OUT ON
THE ROADS...LEAVING THEM CLEAR FOR EMERGENCY OFFICIALS AND SNOW-
REMOVAL EQUIPMENT. YOU SHOULD BE TAKING SHELTER AND MAKING PLANS IN
CASE YOU BECOME TRAPPED FOR DAYS AND/OR LOSE POWER. CONSIDER ANY AND
ALL POSSIBILITIES NO MATTER WHAT YOU THINK THE OUTCOMES MAY BE.

*/ PRECIPITATION-TYPE...

CONTINUED INDICATIONS THAT WE WILL SEE A CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN ACROSS
THE E-HALF OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...POSSIBLY MARTHAS VINEYARD
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE TRANSITION LINE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING NW THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME PRIOR TO CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW
AS WE GO INTO LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE STORM BEGINS TO EXIT. PRECIP N/W
OF H925 0C LINE / COASTAL FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW. MODEL CONSENSUS
OF THE DRY-SLOT AROUND -10C HAS IT CONFINED MAINLY IN AREAS WHERE
RAIN IS EXPECTED. FEEL THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVELS ESPECIALLY WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT AND MESOSCALE BANDING SHOULD BE DEEP AND COLD ENOUGH
TO RETAIN THE PRESENCE OF ICE AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER.

*/ BLIZZARD...

TWO AREAS OF FOCUS: SE AND W NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHLIGHTED MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING UP ABOVE. ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN BANDING...ALONG WITH THUNDERSNOW
POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A FOOT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
6-HOURS. COUPLED WITH WINDS ESPECIALLY E/SE WILL MAKE FOR BLIZZARD /
WHITE-OUT / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL
GRAPHIC UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THINKING. HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED.
DID NOT GO WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THIS FORECAST.

LOWER SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TOWARDS THE NW IN COLDER AIR. A WETTER
SNOW CLOSER TO THE COAST TO THE SE. COMBINING WITH WINDS WILL MAKE
SE NEW ENGLAND BOTH VULNERABLE AND THE HIGHEST RISK AREA FOR POWER
OUTAGES...AS WELL AS DOWNED TREE / TREE LIMBS / STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING UPWARDS
OF 3 FEET...MAINLY IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WHERE MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING IS EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE/LIFE-THREATENING
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION.

*/ WINDS...

STRONGEST NE-WINDS CENTERED AROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AGREE WITH
PRIOR FORECASTER THAT LOW-LEVEL PROFILES WELL-MIXED UP TO H9 SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF MOMENTUM WITHIN LOWEST 2 KFT TO MIX-DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 80 MPH REMAIN
FORECASTED FOR SE-COASTAL MA INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE
COD...ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN CAPE ANN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION CLOSELY. SUCH WINDS ARE COVERED WITHIN THE BLIZZARD
WARNING...THUS HURRICANE WIND FORCE WARNINGS ARE NOT ISSUED.

SO TO REITERATE...70 TO 80 MPH FOR SE-COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS AND EVEN
POSSIBLY FOR CAPE ANN. AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH GUSTS INLAND AROUND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR / ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR.

WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...DOWNED TREES/TREE LIMBS...STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE. RISKS ARE GREATER WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY / WET /
MORE WATER LADEN. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES OVERALL WITH
GREATEST IMPACTS IN AREAS WITH STRONGEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DISCUSSION CONTINUES BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEK
* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

26/12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR OVERALL
SYNOPTIC HANDLING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE STILL
SOME CRUCIAL DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT THOUGH. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS
APPROACH.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH A FRESH...DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE WITH DIMINISHING
WIND...SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS STILL LIKELY TOO HIGH. WILL MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
LATER THIS WEEK TO DIAL THIS IN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. THE PRIMARY TRACK
OF A CLIPPER LOW SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SNOWFALL. PLOWABLE AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...EVEN WITH THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.

THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR APPROACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION IF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CAN DEVELOP AND GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.  29/12Z ECMWF HAS COME CLOSER TO THE GFS
SOLUTION...BOTH IN TRACK AND TIMING. AT PRESENT...WILL PLACE A
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO SAY MORE THAN THAT AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT LIFR-VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS E MA/RI WITH PERIODS OF
+SN/BLSN. MAY SEE 2-3 INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES AS WELL. N-NE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60-70 KT ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...LOCALLY UP TO
80 KT ON THE E END OF NANTUCKET AND POSSIBLY OUTER CAPE
COD...35-50 KT ACROSS REMAINDER OF E MA INTO E RI. EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT WITH LLWS AT 2KFT. ISOLD THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE.
FURTHER W...MVFR-IFR CIGS/IFR-LIFR VSBYS WITH PERIODS OF VLIFR IN
ANY +SN BANDS MOVING ACROSS. N GUSTS UP TO 30-40 KT.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF IFR-VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PERIODS OF +SN/BLSN THROUGH
16Z-18Z ACROSS E MA/RI...THEN SLOWLY IMPROVING. N-NE WIND GUSTS
CONTINUE UP TO 50-60 KT ACROSS E COASTAL AREAS...SLOWLY
DIMINISHING DURING THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT ON CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. CENTRAL-W AREAS...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LOCAL LIFR
VSBYS IN PERIODS OF +SN THROUGH MIDDAY. LLWS CONTINUES ACROSS E MA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CENTRAL-W AREAS...VSBYS IMPROVE ACROSS TO VFR BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH CIGS MVFR- IFR EARLY...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR. N-NW WIND
GUSTS 25-30 KT EARLY SLOWLY DIMINISHING. E MA/RI...IFR-LIFR CIGS/
VSBYS EARLY...SLOWLY IMPROVE AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL
KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE...WE COULD SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND A
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST INTENSIFIES. THIS COULD RESULT IN
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
  EASTERN MA COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND TUESDAY
  LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ***

WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR
BOTH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES
ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE MA E COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE OCEAN EXPOSED COASTLINE OF SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND.

CHANGES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE COASTAL FLOOD FORECAST WITH
THE LATEST ISSUANCE. HAVE TWEAKED WAVE AND STORM SURGE FORECASTS
ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY. WE STILL EXPECT THE COASTAL FLOODING IMPACT FOR
THIS STORM TO BE ON PAR WITH THAT FROM THE FEBRUARY 2013 EVENT. KEEP
IN MIND...HOWEVER...THAT NO TWO STORMS ARE EVER EXACTLY ALIKE. SOME
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED A LITTLE LESS AND OTHERS A LITTLE MORE
WITH THIS STORM.

TIDE TIMES...ALONG THE MA E COAST...HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6
AM AND AGAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. HIGH
TIDE SPECIFICALLY IN BOSTON IS AROUND 430 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AND NEAR 5 PM FOR TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THE RI COASTLINE...HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT IS GENERALLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM.

TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...THE STORM SURGE IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE 3
TO 3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY EARLY AM
HIGH TIDE. THE ACTUAL PEAK STORM TIDE COULD BE 15 TO 30 MINUTES
AFTER THE SCHEDULED HIGH TIDE IN SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO THE
INCREASING SURGE. BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE
SEAS TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IN TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
IN BUT NOT LIMITED TO HULL...SCITUATE...AND MARSHFIELD. NE SURFACE
WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...PERHAPS EVEN BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT
ALONG THE CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET COAST. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
AND WAVE RUNUP. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW
INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER BEACHES. WE
ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE EROSION POTENTIAL FOR EAST FACING
SHORELINES ALONG PLUM ISLAND...PLYMOUTH...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND
NANTUCKET.

TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...THIS TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW TENTHS
HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS MAY STILL BE 25
TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE. AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR THE LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BESIDES CONTINUING CONCERNS REGARDING
EROSION ALONG PLUM ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET...SEVERE
EROSION IS LIKELY TO BE ALSO A CONCERN ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD FROM SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WINDS WILL SHIFTED TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY THAT TIME. NOTE ALSO THAT SOME AREAS
COMPROMISED BY THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE MAY BE POUNDED A SECOND
TIME BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND SOUTH COAST...PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN EXPOSED
RHODE ISLAND COAST...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND...WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND MINOR EROSION FOR THE HIGH
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM TONIGHT DUE TO SWELLS ON TOP OF ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WIND FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO PRECLUDE ANY COASTAL
IMPACTS.

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST
COAST...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL SURGE AND SWELL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AND SOME EROSION ALONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING
SHORELINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ006>008.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK/99
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270625
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
125 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL
IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TRAVEL WILL BECOME
IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR
LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD
 - SERIOUS LIFE-THREATENING STORM / TRAVEL DISCOURAGED!
 - 1 TO 2 FT OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SNOW-BANDING
 - WHITE OUT CONDITIONS / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES
 - STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
 - MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

930 PM UPDATE...
WV LOOP SHOWS CLASSIC CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE WITH WELL DEFINED
COMMA HEAD OFF MID ATLC COAST WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL
LIFTING NWD INTO NEW ENG. STILL PLENTY OF JET ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
TO THE SE US COAST WITH TRAILING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE/MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION OFF NC COAST WITH SCT LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED. IT IS
THIS SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RESULT IN DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
AND EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENG.

FIRST MESOSCALE BAND LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO
RI AND SE MA THIS EVENING ASSOCD WITH ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES.
WILL SEE OCCASIONAL BANDS LIFT N ACROSS SNE TONIGHT WITH TWO
DISTINCT BANDS LIKELY DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE. FIRST
ASSOCD WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW DEEPENS
AND THIS BAND WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS CT AND CENTRAL MA AND
POSSIBLY FURTHER W INTO W MA DURING TUE. THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF
THIS BAND IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THEN VERY STRONG BANDING SIGNAL
ASSOCD WITH LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
LIFTING ACROSS SE NEW ENG 08-15Z. THIS BAND WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCD
WITH 2-3"/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS SE MA. OTHER NOTABLE FEATURE
IS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 6 C/KM ACROSS SE NEW ENG SUGGESTING
POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION AND THUNDER SNOW WITH ISOLD 4"/HR
RATES.

COASTAL FRONT CURRENTLY WEST OF I95 EXTENDING FROM BETWEEN BED-
BOS TO NW RI. AS SFC LOW APPROACHES BENCHMARK LATE TONIGHT AND
TUE MORNING EXPECT THIS FRONT TO MOVE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR WITH TEMPS CRASHING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN INCLUDING BOS AND PVD.

ONLY CHANGE TO UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE SNOW ACROSS ACK. RECEIVED
REPORT OF 4.5" AS OF 845 PM AND EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE TO AT
LEAST 06Z BEFORE POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

*/ OVERVIEW...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A CRIPPLING/HISTORIC BLIZZARD IMPACTING
S NEW ENGLAND. NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY INTENSIFIES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SE OF NANTUCKET NEAR THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK NE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY ALONG
AN OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENHANCED BY HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED N
ACROSS E CANADA. CLASSIC CONVEYOR BELTS BENEATH H3 JET COUPLING AXES
OF RRQ / LFQ YIELDS STRONG DIFFLUENT MOTIONS ALOFT. LOW VERTICALLY
STACKS / FILLS BECOMING CAPTURED / STALLING BENEATH THE CLOSING
LOW ALOFT RESULTING IN A SLOW-MOVING / LONG-DURATION STORM. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OF 20-30 MB IN 18 HRS. ALREADY ONGOING AS LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE INITIAL NEGATIVE-TILT AHEAD OF
WHICH THE BAROCLINIC-LEAF STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT. LOTS OF OFFSHORE
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY INDICATIVE THAT THIS STORM IS GETTING
BEEFY/INTENSIFYING. ITS BOMBOGENESIS BABY!

KEY TO THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF THE CLOSING H85 / H7 LOW AND
PARENT CYCLONIC WARM- AND DRY-CONVEYOR BELT MOTIONS. PRESENTLY AN
OPEN-WAVE AHEAD OF WHICH A SW-NE BANDING SIGNATURE IS SEEN PER WSR-
88D RETURNS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL F-GEN FORCING ALOFT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE AND IMPACT S/SE NEW ENGLAND FROM NOW INTO
TONIGHT /1-2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES LATE/. THE BAND WILL PIVOT
SSW-NNE AND TROWAL REARWARD OF BOMBING LOW AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEIGHBORED WITH -EPV /POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY/ OF HIGH THETA-E AIR BELOW STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
YIELDS AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SNOWBAND AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSNOW. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HR AROUND
MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEFORMATION ZONE EXPECTED OF MODERATE-HEAVY
SNOW. DECENT STAR-SIGNATURES WITHIN FORECAST SNOW-BANDING WITH
STRONG LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH-ZONE.

WHILE THAT IS ONE FORECAST AREA OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING...ANOTHER
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS MAXIMIZED BENEATH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS DRY AIR AT -10C E...SO ICE SHOULD
BE PRESENT AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER THRU WHICH STRONG FORCING
SHOULD OCCUR. THIS BANDING EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER SE NEW ENGLAND
ADDING MORE SNOW ON TOP OF THE INITIAL FRONT-END THUMP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES W TO E AS THE LOW PULLS OUT TO SEA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING REARWARD AROUND THE
LOW WILL LEND TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OF WHICH WILL INVIGORATE ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE BANDING THOUGH NOT
AS WIDESPREAD...MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS
AND THE LOW STACKS / OCCLUDES LENDING TO ITS DYING STAGE. ALL THAT
WILL BE LEFT IS ROBUST NW-WINDS DRAWING COLDER AIR S GENERATING
FAIRLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES...ESPECIALLY IN WAKE OF A DEEP-LAYER
OF SNOW ANTICIPATED.

OVERALL WENT WITH MESOSCALE MODELS /MAINLY THE NAM WITH A TOUCH
OF THE WRF/ ALONG WITH A EC/WPC BLEND POINT TO THE TWO AREAS IN
QUESTION FOR SNOW-BANDING. ALL OTHER MODELS /GFS-CANADIAN-UKMET/
WERE CLUSTERED A BIT FASTER. OVERALL IT REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS
THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OF LOW POSITIONING AND
THERE REMAINS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

SO A WORD OF CAUTION. WHILE THERE IS FOCUS OF TWO AREAS ACROSS S NEW
ENGLAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH A LULL IN BETWEEN...THIS IS
AN UNPRECEDENTED STORM FOR ALL S NEW ENGLAND FOR WHICH PREPARATIONS
SHOULD HAVE BEEN MADE AND ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN ON A SIMILAR NATURE
NO MATTER IF YOU`RE UNDER A BLIZZARD OR WINTER STORM WARNING. THIS
IS A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM. YOU SHOULD NOT BE OUT ON
THE ROADS...LEAVING THEM CLEAR FOR EMERGENCY OFFICIALS AND SNOW-
REMOVAL EQUIPMENT. YOU SHOULD BE TAKING SHELTER AND MAKING PLANS IN
CASE YOU BECOME TRAPPED FOR DAYS AND/OR LOSE POWER. CONSIDER ANY AND
ALL POSSIBILITIES NO MATTER WHAT YOU THINK THE OUTCOMES MAY BE.

*/ PRECIPITATION-TYPE...

CONTINUED INDICATIONS THAT WE WILL SEE A CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN ACROSS
THE E-HALF OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...POSSIBLY MARTHAS VINEYARD
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE TRANSITION LINE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING NW THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME PRIOR TO CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW
AS WE GO INTO LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE STORM BEGINS TO EXIT. PRECIP N/W
OF H925 0C LINE / COASTAL FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW. MODEL CONSENSUS
OF THE DRY-SLOT AROUND -10C HAS IT CONFINED MAINLY IN AREAS WHERE
RAIN IS EXPECTED. FEEL THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVELS ESPECIALLY WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT AND MESOSCALE BANDING SHOULD BE DEEP AND COLD ENOUGH
TO RETAIN THE PRESENCE OF ICE AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER.

*/ BLIZZARD...

TWO AREAS OF FOCUS: SE AND W NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHLIGHTED MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING UP ABOVE. ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN BANDING...ALONG WITH THUNDERSNOW
POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A FOOT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
6-HOURS. COUPLED WITH WINDS ESPECIALLY E/SE WILL MAKE FOR BLIZZARD /
WHITE-OUT / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL
GRAPHIC UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THINKING. HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED.
DID NOT GO WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THIS FORECAST.

LOWER SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TOWARDS THE NW IN COLDER AIR. A WETTER
SNOW CLOSER TO THE COAST TO THE SE. COMBINING WITH WINDS WILL MAKE
SE NEW ENGLAND BOTH VULNERABLE AND THE HIGHEST RISK AREA FOR POWER
OUTAGES...AS WELL AS DOWNED TREE / TREE LIMBS / STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING UPWARDS
OF 3 FEET...MAINLY IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WHERE MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING IS EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE/LIFE-THREATENING
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION.

*/ WINDS...

STRONGEST NE-WINDS CENTERED AROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AGREE WITH
PRIOR FORECASTER THAT LOW-LEVEL PROFILES WELL-MIXED UP TO H9 SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF MOMENTUM WITHIN LOWEST 2 KFT TO MIX-DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 80 MPH REMAIN
FORECASTED FOR SE-COASTAL MA INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE
COD...ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN CAPE ANN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION CLOSELY. SUCH WINDS ARE COVERED WITHIN THE BLIZZARD
WARNING...THUS HURRICANE WIND FORCE WARNINGS ARE NOT ISSUED.

SO TO REITERATE...70 TO 80 MPH FOR SE-COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS AND EVEN
POSSIBLY FOR CAPE ANN. AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH GUSTS INLAND AROUND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR / ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR.

WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...DOWNED TREES/TREE LIMBS...STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE. RISKS ARE GREATER WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY / WET /
MORE WATER LADEN. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES OVERALL WITH
GREATEST IMPACTS IN AREAS WITH STRONGEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DISCUSSION CONTINUES BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEK
* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

26/12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR OVERALL
SYNOPTIC HANDLING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE STILL
SOME CRUCIAL DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT THOUGH. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS
APPROACH.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH A FRESH...DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE WITH DIMINISHING
WIND...SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS STILL LIKELY TOO HIGH. WILL MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
LATER THIS WEEK TO DIAL THIS IN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. THE PRIMARY TRACK
OF A CLIPPER LOW SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SNOWFALL. PLOWABLE AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...EVEN WITH THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.

THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR APPROACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION IF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CAN DEVELOP AND GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.  29/12Z ECMWF HAS COME CLOSER TO THE GFS
SOLUTION...BOTH IN TRACK AND TIMING. AT PRESENT...WILL PLACE A
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO SAY MORE THAN THAT AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT LIFR-VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS E MA/RI WITH PERIODS OF
+SN/BLSN. MAY SEE 2-3 INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES AS WELL. N-NE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60-70 KT ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...LOCALLY UP TO
80 KT ON THE E END OF NANTUCKET AND POSSIBLY OUTER CAPE
COD...35-50 KT ACROSS REMAINDER OF E MA INTO E RI. EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT WITH LLWS AT 2KFT. ISOLD THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE.
FURTHER W...MVFR-IFR CIGS/IFR-LIFR VSBYS WITH PERIODS OF VLIFR IN
ANY +SN BANDS MOVING ACROSS. N GUSTS UP TO 30-40 KT.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF IFR-VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PERIODS OF +SN/BLSN THROUGH
16Z-18Z ACROSS E MA/RI...THEN SLOWLY IMPROVING. N-NE WIND GUSTS
CONTINUE UP TO 50-60 KT ACROSS E COASTAL AREAS...SLOWLY
DIMINISHING DURING THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT ON CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. CENTRAL-W AREAS...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LOCAL LIFR
VSBYS IN PERIODS OF +SN THROUGH MIDDAY. LLWS CONTINUES ACROSS E MA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CENTRAL-W AREAS...VSBYS IMPROVE ACROSS TO VFR BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH CIGS MVFR- IFR EARLY...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR. N-NW WIND
GUSTS 25-30 KT EARLY SLOWLY DIMINISHING. E MA/RI...IFR-LIFR CIGS/
VSBYS EARLY...SLOWLY IMPROVE AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL
KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE...WE COULD SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND A
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST INTENSIFIES. THIS COULD RESULT IN
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
  EASTERN MA COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND TUESDAY
  LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ***

WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR
BOTH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES
ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE MA E COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE OCEAN EXPOSED COASTLINE OF SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND.

CHANGES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE COASTAL FLOOD FORECAST WITH
THE LATEST ISSUANCE. HAVE TWEAKED WAVE AND STORM SURGE FORECASTS
ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY. WE STILL EXPECT THE COASTAL FLOODING IMPACT FOR
THIS STORM TO BE ON PAR WITH THAT FROM THE FEBRUARY 2013 EVENT. KEEP
IN MIND...HOWEVER...THAT NO TWO STORMS ARE EVER EXACTLY ALIKE. SOME
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED A LITTLE LESS AND OTHERS A LITTLE MORE
WITH THIS STORM.

TIDE TIMES...ALONG THE MA E COAST...HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6
AM AND AGAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. HIGH
TIDE SPECIFICALLY IN BOSTON IS AROUND 430 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AND NEAR 5 PM FOR TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THE RI COASTLINE...HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT IS GENERALLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM.

TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...THE STORM SURGE IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE 3
TO 3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY EARLY AM
HIGH TIDE. THE ACTUAL PEAK STORM TIDE COULD BE 15 TO 30 MINUTES
AFTER THE SCHEDULED HIGH TIDE IN SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO THE
INCREASING SURGE. BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE
SEAS TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IN TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
IN BUT NOT LIMITED TO HULL...SCITUATE...AND MARSHFIELD. NE SURFACE
WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...PERHAPS EVEN BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT
ALONG THE CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET COAST. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
AND WAVE RUNUP. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW
INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER BEACHES. WE
ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE EROSION POTENTIAL FOR EAST FACING
SHORELINES ALONG PLUM ISLAND...PLYMOUTH...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND
NANTUCKET.

TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...THIS TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW TENTHS
HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS MAY STILL BE 25
TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE. AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR THE LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BESIDES CONTINUING CONCERNS REGARDING
EROSION ALONG PLUM ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET...SEVERE
EROSION IS LIKELY TO BE ALSO A CONCERN ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD FROM SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WINDS WILL SHIFTED TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY THAT TIME. NOTE ALSO THAT SOME AREAS
COMPROMISED BY THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE MAY BE POUNDED A SECOND
TIME BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND SOUTH COAST...PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN EXPOSED
RHODE ISLAND COAST...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND...WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND MINOR EROSION FOR THE HIGH
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM TONIGHT DUE TO SWELLS ON TOP OF ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WIND FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO PRECLUDE ANY COASTAL
IMPACTS.

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST
COAST...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL SURGE AND SWELL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AND SOME EROSION ALONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING
SHORELINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ006>008.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK/99
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270625
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
125 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL
IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TRAVEL WILL BECOME
IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR
LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD
 - SERIOUS LIFE-THREATENING STORM / TRAVEL DISCOURAGED!
 - 1 TO 2 FT OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SNOW-BANDING
 - WHITE OUT CONDITIONS / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES
 - STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
 - MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

930 PM UPDATE...
WV LOOP SHOWS CLASSIC CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE WITH WELL DEFINED
COMMA HEAD OFF MID ATLC COAST WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL
LIFTING NWD INTO NEW ENG. STILL PLENTY OF JET ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
TO THE SE US COAST WITH TRAILING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE/MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION OFF NC COAST WITH SCT LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED. IT IS
THIS SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RESULT IN DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
AND EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENG.

FIRST MESOSCALE BAND LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO
RI AND SE MA THIS EVENING ASSOCD WITH ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES.
WILL SEE OCCASIONAL BANDS LIFT N ACROSS SNE TONIGHT WITH TWO
DISTINCT BANDS LIKELY DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE. FIRST
ASSOCD WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW DEEPENS
AND THIS BAND WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS CT AND CENTRAL MA AND
POSSIBLY FURTHER W INTO W MA DURING TUE. THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF
THIS BAND IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THEN VERY STRONG BANDING SIGNAL
ASSOCD WITH LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
LIFTING ACROSS SE NEW ENG 08-15Z. THIS BAND WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCD
WITH 2-3"/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS SE MA. OTHER NOTABLE FEATURE
IS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 6 C/KM ACROSS SE NEW ENG SUGGESTING
POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION AND THUNDER SNOW WITH ISOLD 4"/HR
RATES.

COASTAL FRONT CURRENTLY WEST OF I95 EXTENDING FROM BETWEEN BED-
BOS TO NW RI. AS SFC LOW APPROACHES BENCHMARK LATE TONIGHT AND
TUE MORNING EXPECT THIS FRONT TO MOVE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR WITH TEMPS CRASHING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN INCLUDING BOS AND PVD.

ONLY CHANGE TO UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE SNOW ACROSS ACK. RECEIVED
REPORT OF 4.5" AS OF 845 PM AND EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE TO AT
LEAST 06Z BEFORE POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

*/ OVERVIEW...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A CRIPPLING/HISTORIC BLIZZARD IMPACTING
S NEW ENGLAND. NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY INTENSIFIES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SE OF NANTUCKET NEAR THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK NE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY ALONG
AN OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENHANCED BY HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED N
ACROSS E CANADA. CLASSIC CONVEYOR BELTS BENEATH H3 JET COUPLING AXES
OF RRQ / LFQ YIELDS STRONG DIFFLUENT MOTIONS ALOFT. LOW VERTICALLY
STACKS / FILLS BECOMING CAPTURED / STALLING BENEATH THE CLOSING
LOW ALOFT RESULTING IN A SLOW-MOVING / LONG-DURATION STORM. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OF 20-30 MB IN 18 HRS. ALREADY ONGOING AS LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE INITIAL NEGATIVE-TILT AHEAD OF
WHICH THE BAROCLINIC-LEAF STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT. LOTS OF OFFSHORE
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY INDICATIVE THAT THIS STORM IS GETTING
BEEFY/INTENSIFYING. ITS BOMBOGENESIS BABY!

KEY TO THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF THE CLOSING H85 / H7 LOW AND
PARENT CYCLONIC WARM- AND DRY-CONVEYOR BELT MOTIONS. PRESENTLY AN
OPEN-WAVE AHEAD OF WHICH A SW-NE BANDING SIGNATURE IS SEEN PER WSR-
88D RETURNS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL F-GEN FORCING ALOFT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE AND IMPACT S/SE NEW ENGLAND FROM NOW INTO
TONIGHT /1-2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES LATE/. THE BAND WILL PIVOT
SSW-NNE AND TROWAL REARWARD OF BOMBING LOW AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEIGHBORED WITH -EPV /POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY/ OF HIGH THETA-E AIR BELOW STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
YIELDS AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SNOWBAND AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSNOW. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HR AROUND
MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEFORMATION ZONE EXPECTED OF MODERATE-HEAVY
SNOW. DECENT STAR-SIGNATURES WITHIN FORECAST SNOW-BANDING WITH
STRONG LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH-ZONE.

WHILE THAT IS ONE FORECAST AREA OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING...ANOTHER
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS MAXIMIZED BENEATH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS DRY AIR AT -10C E...SO ICE SHOULD
BE PRESENT AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER THRU WHICH STRONG FORCING
SHOULD OCCUR. THIS BANDING EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER SE NEW ENGLAND
ADDING MORE SNOW ON TOP OF THE INITIAL FRONT-END THUMP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES W TO E AS THE LOW PULLS OUT TO SEA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING REARWARD AROUND THE
LOW WILL LEND TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OF WHICH WILL INVIGORATE ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE BANDING THOUGH NOT
AS WIDESPREAD...MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS
AND THE LOW STACKS / OCCLUDES LENDING TO ITS DYING STAGE. ALL THAT
WILL BE LEFT IS ROBUST NW-WINDS DRAWING COLDER AIR S GENERATING
FAIRLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES...ESPECIALLY IN WAKE OF A DEEP-LAYER
OF SNOW ANTICIPATED.

OVERALL WENT WITH MESOSCALE MODELS /MAINLY THE NAM WITH A TOUCH
OF THE WRF/ ALONG WITH A EC/WPC BLEND POINT TO THE TWO AREAS IN
QUESTION FOR SNOW-BANDING. ALL OTHER MODELS /GFS-CANADIAN-UKMET/
WERE CLUSTERED A BIT FASTER. OVERALL IT REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS
THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OF LOW POSITIONING AND
THERE REMAINS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

SO A WORD OF CAUTION. WHILE THERE IS FOCUS OF TWO AREAS ACROSS S NEW
ENGLAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH A LULL IN BETWEEN...THIS IS
AN UNPRECEDENTED STORM FOR ALL S NEW ENGLAND FOR WHICH PREPARATIONS
SHOULD HAVE BEEN MADE AND ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN ON A SIMILAR NATURE
NO MATTER IF YOU`RE UNDER A BLIZZARD OR WINTER STORM WARNING. THIS
IS A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM. YOU SHOULD NOT BE OUT ON
THE ROADS...LEAVING THEM CLEAR FOR EMERGENCY OFFICIALS AND SNOW-
REMOVAL EQUIPMENT. YOU SHOULD BE TAKING SHELTER AND MAKING PLANS IN
CASE YOU BECOME TRAPPED FOR DAYS AND/OR LOSE POWER. CONSIDER ANY AND
ALL POSSIBILITIES NO MATTER WHAT YOU THINK THE OUTCOMES MAY BE.

*/ PRECIPITATION-TYPE...

CONTINUED INDICATIONS THAT WE WILL SEE A CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN ACROSS
THE E-HALF OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...POSSIBLY MARTHAS VINEYARD
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE TRANSITION LINE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING NW THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME PRIOR TO CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW
AS WE GO INTO LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE STORM BEGINS TO EXIT. PRECIP N/W
OF H925 0C LINE / COASTAL FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW. MODEL CONSENSUS
OF THE DRY-SLOT AROUND -10C HAS IT CONFINED MAINLY IN AREAS WHERE
RAIN IS EXPECTED. FEEL THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVELS ESPECIALLY WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT AND MESOSCALE BANDING SHOULD BE DEEP AND COLD ENOUGH
TO RETAIN THE PRESENCE OF ICE AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER.

*/ BLIZZARD...

TWO AREAS OF FOCUS: SE AND W NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHLIGHTED MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING UP ABOVE. ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN BANDING...ALONG WITH THUNDERSNOW
POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A FOOT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
6-HOURS. COUPLED WITH WINDS ESPECIALLY E/SE WILL MAKE FOR BLIZZARD /
WHITE-OUT / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL
GRAPHIC UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THINKING. HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED.
DID NOT GO WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THIS FORECAST.

LOWER SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TOWARDS THE NW IN COLDER AIR. A WETTER
SNOW CLOSER TO THE COAST TO THE SE. COMBINING WITH WINDS WILL MAKE
SE NEW ENGLAND BOTH VULNERABLE AND THE HIGHEST RISK AREA FOR POWER
OUTAGES...AS WELL AS DOWNED TREE / TREE LIMBS / STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING UPWARDS
OF 3 FEET...MAINLY IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WHERE MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING IS EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE/LIFE-THREATENING
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION.

*/ WINDS...

STRONGEST NE-WINDS CENTERED AROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AGREE WITH
PRIOR FORECASTER THAT LOW-LEVEL PROFILES WELL-MIXED UP TO H9 SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF MOMENTUM WITHIN LOWEST 2 KFT TO MIX-DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 80 MPH REMAIN
FORECASTED FOR SE-COASTAL MA INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE
COD...ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN CAPE ANN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION CLOSELY. SUCH WINDS ARE COVERED WITHIN THE BLIZZARD
WARNING...THUS HURRICANE WIND FORCE WARNINGS ARE NOT ISSUED.

SO TO REITERATE...70 TO 80 MPH FOR SE-COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS AND EVEN
POSSIBLY FOR CAPE ANN. AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH GUSTS INLAND AROUND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR / ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR.

WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...DOWNED TREES/TREE LIMBS...STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE. RISKS ARE GREATER WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY / WET /
MORE WATER LADEN. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES OVERALL WITH
GREATEST IMPACTS IN AREAS WITH STRONGEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DISCUSSION CONTINUES BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEK
* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

26/12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR OVERALL
SYNOPTIC HANDLING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE STILL
SOME CRUCIAL DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT THOUGH. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS
APPROACH.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH A FRESH...DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE WITH DIMINISHING
WIND...SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS STILL LIKELY TOO HIGH. WILL MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
LATER THIS WEEK TO DIAL THIS IN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. THE PRIMARY TRACK
OF A CLIPPER LOW SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SNOWFALL. PLOWABLE AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...EVEN WITH THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.

THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR APPROACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION IF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CAN DEVELOP AND GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.  29/12Z ECMWF HAS COME CLOSER TO THE GFS
SOLUTION...BOTH IN TRACK AND TIMING. AT PRESENT...WILL PLACE A
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO SAY MORE THAN THAT AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT LIFR-VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS E MA/RI WITH PERIODS OF
+SN/BLSN. MAY SEE 2-3 INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES AS WELL. N-NE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60-70 KT ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...LOCALLY UP TO
80 KT ON THE E END OF NANTUCKET AND POSSIBLY OUTER CAPE
COD...35-50 KT ACROSS REMAINDER OF E MA INTO E RI. EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT WITH LLWS AT 2KFT. ISOLD THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE.
FURTHER W...MVFR-IFR CIGS/IFR-LIFR VSBYS WITH PERIODS OF VLIFR IN
ANY +SN BANDS MOVING ACROSS. N GUSTS UP TO 30-40 KT.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF IFR-VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PERIODS OF +SN/BLSN THROUGH
16Z-18Z ACROSS E MA/RI...THEN SLOWLY IMPROVING. N-NE WIND GUSTS
CONTINUE UP TO 50-60 KT ACROSS E COASTAL AREAS...SLOWLY
DIMINISHING DURING THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT ON CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. CENTRAL-W AREAS...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LOCAL LIFR
VSBYS IN PERIODS OF +SN THROUGH MIDDAY. LLWS CONTINUES ACROSS E MA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CENTRAL-W AREAS...VSBYS IMPROVE ACROSS TO VFR BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH CIGS MVFR- IFR EARLY...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR. N-NW WIND
GUSTS 25-30 KT EARLY SLOWLY DIMINISHING. E MA/RI...IFR-LIFR CIGS/
VSBYS EARLY...SLOWLY IMPROVE AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL
KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE...WE COULD SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND A
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST INTENSIFIES. THIS COULD RESULT IN
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
  EASTERN MA COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND TUESDAY
  LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ***

WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR
BOTH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES
ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE MA E COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE OCEAN EXPOSED COASTLINE OF SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND.

CHANGES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE COASTAL FLOOD FORECAST WITH
THE LATEST ISSUANCE. HAVE TWEAKED WAVE AND STORM SURGE FORECASTS
ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY. WE STILL EXPECT THE COASTAL FLOODING IMPACT FOR
THIS STORM TO BE ON PAR WITH THAT FROM THE FEBRUARY 2013 EVENT. KEEP
IN MIND...HOWEVER...THAT NO TWO STORMS ARE EVER EXACTLY ALIKE. SOME
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED A LITTLE LESS AND OTHERS A LITTLE MORE
WITH THIS STORM.

TIDE TIMES...ALONG THE MA E COAST...HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6
AM AND AGAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. HIGH
TIDE SPECIFICALLY IN BOSTON IS AROUND 430 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AND NEAR 5 PM FOR TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THE RI COASTLINE...HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT IS GENERALLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM.

TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...THE STORM SURGE IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE 3
TO 3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY EARLY AM
HIGH TIDE. THE ACTUAL PEAK STORM TIDE COULD BE 15 TO 30 MINUTES
AFTER THE SCHEDULED HIGH TIDE IN SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO THE
INCREASING SURGE. BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE
SEAS TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IN TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
IN BUT NOT LIMITED TO HULL...SCITUATE...AND MARSHFIELD. NE SURFACE
WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...PERHAPS EVEN BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT
ALONG THE CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET COAST. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
AND WAVE RUNUP. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW
INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER BEACHES. WE
ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE EROSION POTENTIAL FOR EAST FACING
SHORELINES ALONG PLUM ISLAND...PLYMOUTH...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND
NANTUCKET.

TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...THIS TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW TENTHS
HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS MAY STILL BE 25
TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE. AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR THE LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BESIDES CONTINUING CONCERNS REGARDING
EROSION ALONG PLUM ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET...SEVERE
EROSION IS LIKELY TO BE ALSO A CONCERN ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD FROM SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WINDS WILL SHIFTED TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY THAT TIME. NOTE ALSO THAT SOME AREAS
COMPROMISED BY THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE MAY BE POUNDED A SECOND
TIME BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND SOUTH COAST...PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN EXPOSED
RHODE ISLAND COAST...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND...WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND MINOR EROSION FOR THE HIGH
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM TONIGHT DUE TO SWELLS ON TOP OF ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WIND FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO PRECLUDE ANY COASTAL
IMPACTS.

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST
COAST...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL SURGE AND SWELL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AND SOME EROSION ALONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING
SHORELINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ006>008.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK/99
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270625
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
125 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL
IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TRAVEL WILL BECOME
IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR
LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD
 - SERIOUS LIFE-THREATENING STORM / TRAVEL DISCOURAGED!
 - 1 TO 2 FT OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SNOW-BANDING
 - WHITE OUT CONDITIONS / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES
 - STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
 - MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

930 PM UPDATE...
WV LOOP SHOWS CLASSIC CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE WITH WELL DEFINED
COMMA HEAD OFF MID ATLC COAST WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL
LIFTING NWD INTO NEW ENG. STILL PLENTY OF JET ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
TO THE SE US COAST WITH TRAILING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE/MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION OFF NC COAST WITH SCT LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED. IT IS
THIS SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RESULT IN DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
AND EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENG.

FIRST MESOSCALE BAND LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO
RI AND SE MA THIS EVENING ASSOCD WITH ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES.
WILL SEE OCCASIONAL BANDS LIFT N ACROSS SNE TONIGHT WITH TWO
DISTINCT BANDS LIKELY DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE. FIRST
ASSOCD WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW DEEPENS
AND THIS BAND WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS CT AND CENTRAL MA AND
POSSIBLY FURTHER W INTO W MA DURING TUE. THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF
THIS BAND IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THEN VERY STRONG BANDING SIGNAL
ASSOCD WITH LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
LIFTING ACROSS SE NEW ENG 08-15Z. THIS BAND WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCD
WITH 2-3"/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS SE MA. OTHER NOTABLE FEATURE
IS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 6 C/KM ACROSS SE NEW ENG SUGGESTING
POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION AND THUNDER SNOW WITH ISOLD 4"/HR
RATES.

COASTAL FRONT CURRENTLY WEST OF I95 EXTENDING FROM BETWEEN BED-
BOS TO NW RI. AS SFC LOW APPROACHES BENCHMARK LATE TONIGHT AND
TUE MORNING EXPECT THIS FRONT TO MOVE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR WITH TEMPS CRASHING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN INCLUDING BOS AND PVD.

ONLY CHANGE TO UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE SNOW ACROSS ACK. RECEIVED
REPORT OF 4.5" AS OF 845 PM AND EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE TO AT
LEAST 06Z BEFORE POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

*/ OVERVIEW...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A CRIPPLING/HISTORIC BLIZZARD IMPACTING
S NEW ENGLAND. NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY INTENSIFIES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SE OF NANTUCKET NEAR THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK NE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY ALONG
AN OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENHANCED BY HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED N
ACROSS E CANADA. CLASSIC CONVEYOR BELTS BENEATH H3 JET COUPLING AXES
OF RRQ / LFQ YIELDS STRONG DIFFLUENT MOTIONS ALOFT. LOW VERTICALLY
STACKS / FILLS BECOMING CAPTURED / STALLING BENEATH THE CLOSING
LOW ALOFT RESULTING IN A SLOW-MOVING / LONG-DURATION STORM. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OF 20-30 MB IN 18 HRS. ALREADY ONGOING AS LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE INITIAL NEGATIVE-TILT AHEAD OF
WHICH THE BAROCLINIC-LEAF STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT. LOTS OF OFFSHORE
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY INDICATIVE THAT THIS STORM IS GETTING
BEEFY/INTENSIFYING. ITS BOMBOGENESIS BABY!

KEY TO THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF THE CLOSING H85 / H7 LOW AND
PARENT CYCLONIC WARM- AND DRY-CONVEYOR BELT MOTIONS. PRESENTLY AN
OPEN-WAVE AHEAD OF WHICH A SW-NE BANDING SIGNATURE IS SEEN PER WSR-
88D RETURNS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL F-GEN FORCING ALOFT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE AND IMPACT S/SE NEW ENGLAND FROM NOW INTO
TONIGHT /1-2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES LATE/. THE BAND WILL PIVOT
SSW-NNE AND TROWAL REARWARD OF BOMBING LOW AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEIGHBORED WITH -EPV /POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY/ OF HIGH THETA-E AIR BELOW STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
YIELDS AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SNOWBAND AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSNOW. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HR AROUND
MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEFORMATION ZONE EXPECTED OF MODERATE-HEAVY
SNOW. DECENT STAR-SIGNATURES WITHIN FORECAST SNOW-BANDING WITH
STRONG LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH-ZONE.

WHILE THAT IS ONE FORECAST AREA OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING...ANOTHER
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS MAXIMIZED BENEATH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS DRY AIR AT -10C E...SO ICE SHOULD
BE PRESENT AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER THRU WHICH STRONG FORCING
SHOULD OCCUR. THIS BANDING EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER SE NEW ENGLAND
ADDING MORE SNOW ON TOP OF THE INITIAL FRONT-END THUMP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES W TO E AS THE LOW PULLS OUT TO SEA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING REARWARD AROUND THE
LOW WILL LEND TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OF WHICH WILL INVIGORATE ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE BANDING THOUGH NOT
AS WIDESPREAD...MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS
AND THE LOW STACKS / OCCLUDES LENDING TO ITS DYING STAGE. ALL THAT
WILL BE LEFT IS ROBUST NW-WINDS DRAWING COLDER AIR S GENERATING
FAIRLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES...ESPECIALLY IN WAKE OF A DEEP-LAYER
OF SNOW ANTICIPATED.

OVERALL WENT WITH MESOSCALE MODELS /MAINLY THE NAM WITH A TOUCH
OF THE WRF/ ALONG WITH A EC/WPC BLEND POINT TO THE TWO AREAS IN
QUESTION FOR SNOW-BANDING. ALL OTHER MODELS /GFS-CANADIAN-UKMET/
WERE CLUSTERED A BIT FASTER. OVERALL IT REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS
THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OF LOW POSITIONING AND
THERE REMAINS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

SO A WORD OF CAUTION. WHILE THERE IS FOCUS OF TWO AREAS ACROSS S NEW
ENGLAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH A LULL IN BETWEEN...THIS IS
AN UNPRECEDENTED STORM FOR ALL S NEW ENGLAND FOR WHICH PREPARATIONS
SHOULD HAVE BEEN MADE AND ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN ON A SIMILAR NATURE
NO MATTER IF YOU`RE UNDER A BLIZZARD OR WINTER STORM WARNING. THIS
IS A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM. YOU SHOULD NOT BE OUT ON
THE ROADS...LEAVING THEM CLEAR FOR EMERGENCY OFFICIALS AND SNOW-
REMOVAL EQUIPMENT. YOU SHOULD BE TAKING SHELTER AND MAKING PLANS IN
CASE YOU BECOME TRAPPED FOR DAYS AND/OR LOSE POWER. CONSIDER ANY AND
ALL POSSIBILITIES NO MATTER WHAT YOU THINK THE OUTCOMES MAY BE.

*/ PRECIPITATION-TYPE...

CONTINUED INDICATIONS THAT WE WILL SEE A CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN ACROSS
THE E-HALF OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...POSSIBLY MARTHAS VINEYARD
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE TRANSITION LINE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING NW THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME PRIOR TO CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW
AS WE GO INTO LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE STORM BEGINS TO EXIT. PRECIP N/W
OF H925 0C LINE / COASTAL FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW. MODEL CONSENSUS
OF THE DRY-SLOT AROUND -10C HAS IT CONFINED MAINLY IN AREAS WHERE
RAIN IS EXPECTED. FEEL THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVELS ESPECIALLY WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT AND MESOSCALE BANDING SHOULD BE DEEP AND COLD ENOUGH
TO RETAIN THE PRESENCE OF ICE AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER.

*/ BLIZZARD...

TWO AREAS OF FOCUS: SE AND W NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHLIGHTED MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING UP ABOVE. ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN BANDING...ALONG WITH THUNDERSNOW
POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A FOOT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
6-HOURS. COUPLED WITH WINDS ESPECIALLY E/SE WILL MAKE FOR BLIZZARD /
WHITE-OUT / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL
GRAPHIC UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THINKING. HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED.
DID NOT GO WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THIS FORECAST.

LOWER SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TOWARDS THE NW IN COLDER AIR. A WETTER
SNOW CLOSER TO THE COAST TO THE SE. COMBINING WITH WINDS WILL MAKE
SE NEW ENGLAND BOTH VULNERABLE AND THE HIGHEST RISK AREA FOR POWER
OUTAGES...AS WELL AS DOWNED TREE / TREE LIMBS / STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING UPWARDS
OF 3 FEET...MAINLY IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WHERE MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING IS EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE/LIFE-THREATENING
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION.

*/ WINDS...

STRONGEST NE-WINDS CENTERED AROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AGREE WITH
PRIOR FORECASTER THAT LOW-LEVEL PROFILES WELL-MIXED UP TO H9 SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF MOMENTUM WITHIN LOWEST 2 KFT TO MIX-DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 80 MPH REMAIN
FORECASTED FOR SE-COASTAL MA INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE
COD...ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN CAPE ANN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION CLOSELY. SUCH WINDS ARE COVERED WITHIN THE BLIZZARD
WARNING...THUS HURRICANE WIND FORCE WARNINGS ARE NOT ISSUED.

SO TO REITERATE...70 TO 80 MPH FOR SE-COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS AND EVEN
POSSIBLY FOR CAPE ANN. AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH GUSTS INLAND AROUND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR / ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR.

WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...DOWNED TREES/TREE LIMBS...STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE. RISKS ARE GREATER WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY / WET /
MORE WATER LADEN. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES OVERALL WITH
GREATEST IMPACTS IN AREAS WITH STRONGEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DISCUSSION CONTINUES BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEK
* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

26/12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR OVERALL
SYNOPTIC HANDLING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE STILL
SOME CRUCIAL DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT THOUGH. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS
APPROACH.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH A FRESH...DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE WITH DIMINISHING
WIND...SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS STILL LIKELY TOO HIGH. WILL MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
LATER THIS WEEK TO DIAL THIS IN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. THE PRIMARY TRACK
OF A CLIPPER LOW SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SNOWFALL. PLOWABLE AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...EVEN WITH THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.

THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR APPROACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION IF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CAN DEVELOP AND GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.  29/12Z ECMWF HAS COME CLOSER TO THE GFS
SOLUTION...BOTH IN TRACK AND TIMING. AT PRESENT...WILL PLACE A
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO SAY MORE THAN THAT AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT LIFR-VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS E MA/RI WITH PERIODS OF
+SN/BLSN. MAY SEE 2-3 INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES AS WELL. N-NE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60-70 KT ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...LOCALLY UP TO
80 KT ON THE E END OF NANTUCKET AND POSSIBLY OUTER CAPE
COD...35-50 KT ACROSS REMAINDER OF E MA INTO E RI. EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT WITH LLWS AT 2KFT. ISOLD THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE.
FURTHER W...MVFR-IFR CIGS/IFR-LIFR VSBYS WITH PERIODS OF VLIFR IN
ANY +SN BANDS MOVING ACROSS. N GUSTS UP TO 30-40 KT.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF IFR-VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PERIODS OF +SN/BLSN THROUGH
16Z-18Z ACROSS E MA/RI...THEN SLOWLY IMPROVING. N-NE WIND GUSTS
CONTINUE UP TO 50-60 KT ACROSS E COASTAL AREAS...SLOWLY
DIMINISHING DURING THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT ON CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. CENTRAL-W AREAS...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LOCAL LIFR
VSBYS IN PERIODS OF +SN THROUGH MIDDAY. LLWS CONTINUES ACROSS E MA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CENTRAL-W AREAS...VSBYS IMPROVE ACROSS TO VFR BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH CIGS MVFR- IFR EARLY...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR. N-NW WIND
GUSTS 25-30 KT EARLY SLOWLY DIMINISHING. E MA/RI...IFR-LIFR CIGS/
VSBYS EARLY...SLOWLY IMPROVE AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL
KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE...WE COULD SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND A
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST INTENSIFIES. THIS COULD RESULT IN
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
  EASTERN MA COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND TUESDAY
  LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ***

WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR
BOTH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES
ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE MA E COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE OCEAN EXPOSED COASTLINE OF SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND.

CHANGES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE COASTAL FLOOD FORECAST WITH
THE LATEST ISSUANCE. HAVE TWEAKED WAVE AND STORM SURGE FORECASTS
ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY. WE STILL EXPECT THE COASTAL FLOODING IMPACT FOR
THIS STORM TO BE ON PAR WITH THAT FROM THE FEBRUARY 2013 EVENT. KEEP
IN MIND...HOWEVER...THAT NO TWO STORMS ARE EVER EXACTLY ALIKE. SOME
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED A LITTLE LESS AND OTHERS A LITTLE MORE
WITH THIS STORM.

TIDE TIMES...ALONG THE MA E COAST...HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6
AM AND AGAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. HIGH
TIDE SPECIFICALLY IN BOSTON IS AROUND 430 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AND NEAR 5 PM FOR TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THE RI COASTLINE...HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT IS GENERALLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM.

TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...THE STORM SURGE IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE 3
TO 3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY EARLY AM
HIGH TIDE. THE ACTUAL PEAK STORM TIDE COULD BE 15 TO 30 MINUTES
AFTER THE SCHEDULED HIGH TIDE IN SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO THE
INCREASING SURGE. BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE
SEAS TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IN TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
IN BUT NOT LIMITED TO HULL...SCITUATE...AND MARSHFIELD. NE SURFACE
WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...PERHAPS EVEN BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT
ALONG THE CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET COAST. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
AND WAVE RUNUP. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW
INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER BEACHES. WE
ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE EROSION POTENTIAL FOR EAST FACING
SHORELINES ALONG PLUM ISLAND...PLYMOUTH...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND
NANTUCKET.

TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...THIS TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW TENTHS
HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS MAY STILL BE 25
TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE. AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR THE LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BESIDES CONTINUING CONCERNS REGARDING
EROSION ALONG PLUM ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET...SEVERE
EROSION IS LIKELY TO BE ALSO A CONCERN ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD FROM SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WINDS WILL SHIFTED TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY THAT TIME. NOTE ALSO THAT SOME AREAS
COMPROMISED BY THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE MAY BE POUNDED A SECOND
TIME BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND SOUTH COAST...PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN EXPOSED
RHODE ISLAND COAST...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND...WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND MINOR EROSION FOR THE HIGH
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM TONIGHT DUE TO SWELLS ON TOP OF ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WIND FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO PRECLUDE ANY COASTAL
IMPACTS.

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST
COAST...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL SURGE AND SWELL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AND SOME EROSION ALONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING
SHORELINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ006>008.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK/99
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KGYX 270456 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1156 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...TOP DOWN SATURATION IS SLOWLY TRYING TO GET MORE
WIDESPREAD SNWFL INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS HOUR. 00Z GYX
SOUNDING SHOWS PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER AT H8...WHICH SHOULD BE ERASED
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR COASTAL ME. ADJUSTED POP TO
REFLECT A SLIGHT DELAY...BUT QUICKLY NWD EXPANDING PCPN SHIELD.

ALSO THINKING AHEAD TO THE LARGER PART OF THE FORECAST TO COME IN
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 00Z RAOB OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 27.00Z CMC-
REGIONAL AND GFS VERIFYING BETTER THAN 26.12Z ECMWF FOR H5 HEIGHTS
INVOF DEVELOPING UPPER LOW PRES. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE 00Z
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED E WITH HEAVIEST QPF. A DEEPER H5 SCENARIO LIKE
THE ECMWF WOULD ACT TO CAPTURE AND PULL SURFACE LOW PRES FARTHER
W...INCLUDING THE QPF. SO 00Z ECMWF SHOULD BE IMPORTANT IN
DETERMINING WHERE TO INTRODUCE SHARPER WRN CUT OFF TO SNWFL
TOTALS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT AND INCREASED
MOISTURE. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN EARNEST TONIGHT AND
WE SHOULD HAVE SNOW SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL MAINE
OVERNIGHT. IN FACT SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK IN
THESE LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES TUMBLE IN THE NORTH TONIGHT AS COLD
AIR IS PULLED TOWARDS THE APPROACHING STORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NEW NAM AND GFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE TODAY... HOWEVER THE
EUROPEAN... WHICH GENERALLY HANDLES WINTER STORMS VERY WELL... IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN WHICH INCREASES THE QPF AND
WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE OUR REGION. THE EUROPEAN GETS CAUGHT IN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVELY AND NOT ONLY
STALLS BUT RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON... MEANDERING
AROUND THE BENCHMARK... AND DEEPENING SLIGHTLY MORE THAN THE OTHER
MODELS AS IT DOES SO. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE WIND FIELDS REMAIN VERY
IMPRESSIVE.

CURRENTLY THE STORM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND IS
AROUND 998 MB. WINDS ARE LOOKING NORTHERLY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
EVENT NOW AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND IS PULLED CLOSER TO THE
COAST. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING AN EYE FEATURE SIMILAR
TO A HURRICANE... WHICH ARE PROMINENT ON STRONG MID LATITUDE
CYCLONES. IN ADDITION THE MAIN BANDING FEATURE(S) SHOULD BE
ORIENTED SSW TO NNE... FROM NEAR PORTSMOUTH NH TO LEWISTON ME TO
HARMONY ME EVENTUALLY AS THEY ROTATES ONSHORE. DUE TO THE ABOVE
MODEL CHANGES AND THE BANDING FEATURES MENTIONED... SNOWFALL
TOTALS WERE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY. OTHERWISE NO WHOLESALE CHANGES...
AND HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME EXCEPT FOR UPGRADING THE COASTAL
STORM WATCHES TO WARNINGS.

K INDICES INCREASE TO NEAR 20 ALONG CAPE COD AND DOWNEAST
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY. THE
EXIT SPEED WILL BE MODEL DETERMINANT...HOWEVER THE EURO IS THE
LEAST PROGRESSIVE AND STALLS OVER NANTUCKET BEFORE SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW. ON FRIDAY...CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS. THE EURO SOLUTION REMAINS VERY
INTERESTING...WITH LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENING IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. THIS COULD BE AN INTERESTING EVENT AS WELL IF THE SYSTEM
CUTS OFF SOON ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH.

VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR POURS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SOME OF THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY TONIGHT TO
MVFR AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
SNOW AFFECTING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS FAR NORTH AS A KLEB
TO KAUG LINE ARE LIKELY BY 12Z...CREATING LIFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS. ALL TERMINALS WILL DROP TO THESE LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LIKELY EXCEPTION OF WHITEFIELD.

LONG TERM...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BE IMPROVING WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY...IFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FRIDAY IN ANOTHER COASTAL LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
VERY STRONG WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 25`.

LONG TERM...
WINDS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS
MAY RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES WILL BE BUILDING LATE TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND
HIGH TIDE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A TWO FOOT STORM SURGE WILL
ALLOW PORTLAND AND HAMPTON TO REACH THEIR FLOOD STAGE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON JUST PRIOR TO HIGH
TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE. THIS IS VERY MODEL
DEPENDENT HOWEVER WITH THE EURO DANGEROUSLY BACKING IN THE STORM
TO NANTUCKET ISLAND.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO TUESDAY HIGH TIDES. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT FORTUNES ROCKS...JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS AND FERRY BEACHES
IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

NERACOOS SPLASH-OVER NOMOGRAMS ALSO SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ISSUES AT
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-
     011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270456 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1156 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...TOP DOWN SATURATION IS SLOWLY TRYING TO GET MORE
WIDESPREAD SNWFL INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS HOUR. 00Z GYX
SOUNDING SHOWS PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER AT H8...WHICH SHOULD BE ERASED
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR COASTAL ME. ADJUSTED POP TO
REFLECT A SLIGHT DELAY...BUT QUICKLY NWD EXPANDING PCPN SHIELD.

ALSO THINKING AHEAD TO THE LARGER PART OF THE FORECAST TO COME IN
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 00Z RAOB OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 27.00Z CMC-
REGIONAL AND GFS VERIFYING BETTER THAN 26.12Z ECMWF FOR H5 HEIGHTS
INVOF DEVELOPING UPPER LOW PRES. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE 00Z
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED E WITH HEAVIEST QPF. A DEEPER H5 SCENARIO LIKE
THE ECMWF WOULD ACT TO CAPTURE AND PULL SURFACE LOW PRES FARTHER
W...INCLUDING THE QPF. SO 00Z ECMWF SHOULD BE IMPORTANT IN
DETERMINING WHERE TO INTRODUCE SHARPER WRN CUT OFF TO SNWFL
TOTALS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT AND INCREASED
MOISTURE. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN EARNEST TONIGHT AND
WE SHOULD HAVE SNOW SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL MAINE
OVERNIGHT. IN FACT SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK IN
THESE LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES TUMBLE IN THE NORTH TONIGHT AS COLD
AIR IS PULLED TOWARDS THE APPROACHING STORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NEW NAM AND GFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE TODAY... HOWEVER THE
EUROPEAN... WHICH GENERALLY HANDLES WINTER STORMS VERY WELL... IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN WHICH INCREASES THE QPF AND
WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE OUR REGION. THE EUROPEAN GETS CAUGHT IN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVELY AND NOT ONLY
STALLS BUT RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON... MEANDERING
AROUND THE BENCHMARK... AND DEEPENING SLIGHTLY MORE THAN THE OTHER
MODELS AS IT DOES SO. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE WIND FIELDS REMAIN VERY
IMPRESSIVE.

CURRENTLY THE STORM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND IS
AROUND 998 MB. WINDS ARE LOOKING NORTHERLY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
EVENT NOW AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND IS PULLED CLOSER TO THE
COAST. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING AN EYE FEATURE SIMILAR
TO A HURRICANE... WHICH ARE PROMINENT ON STRONG MID LATITUDE
CYCLONES. IN ADDITION THE MAIN BANDING FEATURE(S) SHOULD BE
ORIENTED SSW TO NNE... FROM NEAR PORTSMOUTH NH TO LEWISTON ME TO
HARMONY ME EVENTUALLY AS THEY ROTATES ONSHORE. DUE TO THE ABOVE
MODEL CHANGES AND THE BANDING FEATURES MENTIONED... SNOWFALL
TOTALS WERE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY. OTHERWISE NO WHOLESALE CHANGES...
AND HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME EXCEPT FOR UPGRADING THE COASTAL
STORM WATCHES TO WARNINGS.

K INDICES INCREASE TO NEAR 20 ALONG CAPE COD AND DOWNEAST
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY. THE
EXIT SPEED WILL BE MODEL DETERMINANT...HOWEVER THE EURO IS THE
LEAST PROGRESSIVE AND STALLS OVER NANTUCKET BEFORE SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW. ON FRIDAY...CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS. THE EURO SOLUTION REMAINS VERY
INTERESTING...WITH LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENING IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. THIS COULD BE AN INTERESTING EVENT AS WELL IF THE SYSTEM
CUTS OFF SOON ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH.

VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR POURS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SOME OF THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY TONIGHT TO
MVFR AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
SNOW AFFECTING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS FAR NORTH AS A KLEB
TO KAUG LINE ARE LIKELY BY 12Z...CREATING LIFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS. ALL TERMINALS WILL DROP TO THESE LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LIKELY EXCEPTION OF WHITEFIELD.

LONG TERM...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BE IMPROVING WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY...IFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FRIDAY IN ANOTHER COASTAL LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
VERY STRONG WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 25`.

LONG TERM...
WINDS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS
MAY RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES WILL BE BUILDING LATE TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND
HIGH TIDE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A TWO FOOT STORM SURGE WILL
ALLOW PORTLAND AND HAMPTON TO REACH THEIR FLOOD STAGE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON JUST PRIOR TO HIGH
TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE. THIS IS VERY MODEL
DEPENDENT HOWEVER WITH THE EURO DANGEROUSLY BACKING IN THE STORM
TO NANTUCKET ISLAND.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO TUESDAY HIGH TIDES. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT FORTUNES ROCKS...JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS AND FERRY BEACHES
IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

NERACOOS SPLASH-OVER NOMOGRAMS ALSO SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ISSUES AT
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-
     011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270228
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
928 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL
IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TRAVEL WILL BECOME
IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR
LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD
 - SERIOUS LIFE-THREATENING STORM / TRAVEL DISCOURAGED!
 - 1 TO 2 FT OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SNOW-BANDING
 - WHITE OUT CONDITIONS / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES
 - STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
 - MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

930 PM UPDATE...
WV LOOP SHOWS CLASSIC CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE WITH WELL DEFINED
COMMA HEAD OFF MID ATLC COAST WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL
LIFTING NWD INTO NEW ENG. STILL PLENTY OF JET ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
TO THE SE US COAST WITH TRAILING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE/MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION OFF NC COAST WITH SCT LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED. IT IS
THIS SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RESULT IN DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
AND EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENG.

FIRST MESOSCALE BAND LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO
RI AND SE MA THIS EVENING ASSOCD WITH ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES.
WILL SEE OCCASIONAL BANDS LIFT N ACROSS SNE TONIGHT WITH TWO
DISTINCT BANDS LIKELY DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE. FIRST
ASSOCD WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW DEEPENS
AND THIS BAND WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS CT AND CENTRAL MA AND
POSSIBLY FURTHER W INTO W MA DURING TUE. THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF
THIS BAND IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THEN VERY STRONG BANDING SIGNAL
ASSOCD WITH LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
LIFTING ACROSS SE NEW ENG 08-15Z. THIS BAND WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCD
WITH 2-3"/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS SE MA. OTHER NOTABLE FEATURE
IS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 6 C/KM ACROSS SE NEW ENG SUGGESTING
POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION AND THUNDER SNOW WITH ISOLD 4"/HR
RATES.

COASTAL FRONT CURRENTLY WEST OF I95 EXTENDING FROM BETWEEN BED-
BOS TO NW RI. AS SFC LOW APPROACHES BENCHMARK LATE TONIGHT AND
TUE MORNING EXPECT THIS FRONT TO MOVE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR WITH TEMPS CRASHING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN INCLUDING BOS AND PVD.

ONLY CHANGE TO UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE SNOW ACROSS ACK. RECEIVED
REPORT OF 4.5" AS OF 845 PM AND EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE TO AT
LEAST 06Z BEFORE POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

*/ OVERVIEW...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A CRIPPLING/HISTORIC BLIZZARD IMPACTING
S NEW ENGLAND. NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY INTENSIFIES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SE OF NANTUCKET NEAR THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK NE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY ALONG
AN OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENHANCED BY HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED N
ACROSS E CANADA. CLASSIC CONVEYOR BELTS BENEATH H3 JET COUPLING AXES
OF RRQ / LFQ YIELDS STRONG DIFFLUENT MOTIONS ALOFT. LOW VERTICALLY
STACKS / FILLS BECOMING CAPTURED / STALLING BENEATH THE CLOSING
LOW ALOFT RESULTING IN A SLOW-MOVING / LONG-DURATION STORM. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OF 20-30 MB IN 18 HRS. ALREADY ONGOING AS LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE INITIAL NEGATIVE-TILT AHEAD OF
WHICH THE BAROCLINIC-LEAF STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT. LOTS OF OFFSHORE
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY INDICATIVE THAT THIS STORM IS GETTING
BEEFY/INTENSIFYING. ITS BOMBOGENESIS BABY!

KEY TO THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF THE CLOSING H85 / H7 LOW AND
PARENT CYCLONIC WARM- AND DRY-CONVEYOR BELT MOTIONS. PRESENTLY AN
OPEN-WAVE AHEAD OF WHICH A SW-NE BANDING SIGNATURE IS SEEN PER WSR-
88D RETURNS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL F-GEN FORCING ALOFT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE AND IMPACT S/SE NEW ENGLAND FROM NOW INTO
TONIGHT /1-2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES LATE/. THE BAND WILL PIVOT
SSW-NNE AND TROWAL REARWARD OF BOMBING LOW AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEIGHBORED WITH -EPV /POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY/ OF HIGH THETA-E AIR BELOW STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
YIELDS AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SNOWBAND AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSNOW. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HR AROUND
MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEFORMATION ZONE EXPECTED OF MODERATE-HEAVY
SNOW. DECENT STAR-SIGNATURES WITHIN FORECAST SNOW-BANDING WITH
STRONG LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH-ZONE.

WHILE THAT IS ONE FORECAST AREA OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING...ANOTHER
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS MAXIMIZED BENEATH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS DRY AIR AT -10C E...SO ICE SHOULD
BE PRESENT AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER THRU WHICH STRONG FORCING
SHOULD OCCUR. THIS BANDING EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER SE NEW ENGLAND
ADDING MORE SNOW ON TOP OF THE INITIAL FRONT-END THUMP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES W TO E AS THE LOW PULLS OUT TO SEA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING REARWARD AROUND THE
LOW WILL LEND TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OF WHICH WILL INVIGORATE ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE BANDING THOUGH NOT
AS WIDESPREAD...MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS
AND THE LOW STACKS / OCCLUDES LENDING TO ITS DYING STAGE. ALL THAT
WILL BE LEFT IS ROBUST NW-WINDS DRAWING COLDER AIR S GENERATING
FAIRLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES...ESPECIALLY IN WAKE OF A DEEP-LAYER
OF SNOW ANTICIPATED.

OVERALL WENT WITH MESOSCALE MODELS /MAINLY THE NAM WITH A TOUCH
OF THE WRF/ ALONG WITH A EC/WPC BLEND POINT TO THE TWO AREAS IN
QUESTION FOR SNOW-BANDING. ALL OTHER MODELS /GFS-CANADIAN-UKMET/
WERE CLUSTERED A BIT FASTER. OVERALL IT REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS
THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OF LOW POSITIONING AND
THERE REMAINS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

SO A WORD OF CAUTION. WHILE THERE IS FOCUS OF TWO AREAS ACROSS S NEW
ENGLAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH A LULL IN BETWEEN...THIS IS
AN UNPRECEDENTED STORM FOR ALL S NEW ENGLAND FOR WHICH PREPARATIONS
SHOULD HAVE BEEN MADE AND ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN ON A SIMILAR NATURE
NO MATTER IF YOU`RE UNDER A BLIZZARD OR WINTER STORM WARNING. THIS
IS A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM. YOU SHOULD NOT BE OUT ON
THE ROADS...LEAVING THEM CLEAR FOR EMERGENCY OFFICIALS AND SNOW-
REMOVAL EQUIPMENT. YOU SHOULD BE TAKING SHELTER AND MAKING PLANS IN
CASE YOU BECOME TRAPPED FOR DAYS AND/OR LOSE POWER. CONSIDER ANY AND
ALL POSSIBILITIES NO MATTER WHAT YOU THINK THE OUTCOMES MAY BE.

*/ PRECIPITATION-TYPE...

CONTINUED INDICATIONS THAT WE WILL SEE A CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN ACROSS
THE E-HALF OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...POSSIBLY MARTHAS VINEYARD
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE TRANSITION LINE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING NW THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME PRIOR TO CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW
AS WE GO INTO LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE STORM BEGINS TO EXIT. PRECIP N/W
OF H925 0C LINE / COASTAL FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW. MODEL CONSENSUS
OF THE DRY-SLOT AROUND -10C HAS IT CONFINED MAINLY IN AREAS WHERE
RAIN IS EXPECTED. FEEL THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVELS ESPECIALLY WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT AND MESOSCALE BANDING SHOULD BE DEEP AND COLD ENOUGH
TO RETAIN THE PRESENCE OF ICE AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER.

*/ BLIZZARD...

TWO AREAS OF FOCUS: SE AND W NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHLIGHTED MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING UP ABOVE. ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN BANDING...ALONG WITH THUNDERSNOW
POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A FOOT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
6-HOURS. COUPLED WITH WINDS ESPECIALLY E/SE WILL MAKE FOR BLIZZARD /
WHITE-OUT / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL
GRAPHIC UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THINKING. HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED.
DID NOT GO WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THIS FORECAST.

LOWER SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TOWARDS THE NW IN COLDER AIR. A WETTER
SNOW CLOSER TO THE COAST TO THE SE. COMBINING WITH WINDS WILL MAKE
SE NEW ENGLAND BOTH VULNERABLE AND THE HIGHEST RISK AREA FOR POWER
OUTAGES...AS WELL AS DOWNED TREE / TREE LIMBS / STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING UPWARDS
OF 3 FEET...MAINLY IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WHERE MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING IS EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE/LIFE-THREATENING
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION.

*/ WINDS...

STRONGEST NE-WINDS CENTERED AROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AGREE WITH
PRIOR FORECASTER THAT LOW-LEVEL PROFILES WELL-MIXED UP TO H9 SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF MOMENTUM WITHIN LOWEST 2 KFT TO MIX-DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 80 MPH REMAIN
FORECASTED FOR SE-COASTAL MA INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE
COD...ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN CAPE ANN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION CLOSELY. SUCH WINDS ARE COVERED WITHIN THE BLIZZARD
WARNING...THUS HURRICANE WIND FORCE WARNINGS ARE NOT ISSUED.

SO TO REITERATE...70 TO 80 MPH FOR SE-COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS AND EVEN
POSSIBLY FOR CAPE ANN. AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH GUSTS INLAND AROUND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR / ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR.

WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...DOWNED TREES/TREE LIMBS...STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE. RISKS ARE GREATER WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY / WET /
MORE WATER LADEN. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES OVERALL WITH
GREATEST IMPACTS IN AREAS WITH STRONGEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
DISCUSSION CONTINUES BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEK
* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

26/12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR OVERALL
SYNOPTIC HANDLING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE STILL
SOME CRUCIAL DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT THOUGH. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS
APPROACH.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH A FRESH...DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE WITH DIMINISHING
WIND...SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS STILL LIKELY TOO HIGH. WILL MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
LATER THIS WEEK TO DIAL THIS IN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. THE PRIMARY TRACK
OF A CLIPPER LOW SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SNOWFALL. PLOWABLE AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...EVEN WITH THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.

THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR APPROACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION IF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CAN DEVELOP AND GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.  29/12Z ECMWF HAS COME CLOSER TO THE GFS
SOLUTION...BOTH IN TRACK AND TIMING. AT PRESENT...WILL PLACE A
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO SAY MORE THAN THAT AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM IS MOVING INTO THE REGION. HEAVY SNOW WILL
MOVE UP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 1-3 INCH PER HOUR RATES...AND LOCAL 4
INCH PER HOUR RATES POSSIBLE. NORTH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS IN THE CT VALLEY
AND CENTRAL MASS...40-50 KNOTS IN THE BOS-PVD COASTAL PLAIN
AREA...AND 50-70 KNOTS CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST. EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT MOVE IN AT 2000 FEET AGL LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST
AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS. VERY STRONG WIND CONTINUE WITH
GUSTS 70-80 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MASS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY AND DIMINISHES
TUESDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL
KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE...WE COULD SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND A
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST INTENSIFIES. THIS COULD RESULT IN
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
  EASTERN MA COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND TUESDAY
  LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ***

WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR
BOTH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES
ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE MA E COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE OCEAN EXPOSED COASTLINE OF SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND.

CHANGES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE COASTAL FLOOD FORECAST WITH
THE LATEST ISSUANCE. HAVE TWEAKED WAVE AND STORM SURGE FORECASTS
ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY. WE STILL EXPECT THE COASTAL FLOODING IMPACT FOR
THIS STORM TO BE ON PAR WITH THAT FROM THE FEBRUARY 2013 EVENT. KEEP
IN MIND...HOWEVER...THAT NO TWO STORMS ARE EVER EXACTLY ALIKE. SOME
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED A LITTLE LESS AND OTHERS A LITTLE MORE
WITH THIS STORM.

TIDE TIMES...ALONG THE MA E COAST...HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6
AM AND AGAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. HIGH
TIDE SPECIFICALLY IN BOSTON IS AROUND 430 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AND NEAR 5 PM FOR TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THE RI COASTLINE...HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT IS GENERALLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM.

TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...THE STORM SURGE IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE 3
TO 3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY EARLY AM
HIGH TIDE. THE ACTUAL PEAK STORM TIDE COULD BE 15 TO 30 MINUTES
AFTER THE SCHEDULED HIGH TIDE IN SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO THE
INCREASING SURGE. BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE
SEAS TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IN TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
IN BUT NOT LIMITED TO HULL...SCITUATE...AND MARSHFIELD. NE SURFACE
WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...PERHAPS EVEN BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT
ALONG THE CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET COAST. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
AND WAVE RUNUP. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW
INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER BEACHES. WE
ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE EROSION POTENTIAL FOR EAST FACING
SHORELINES ALONG PLUM ISLAND...PLYMOUTH...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND
NANTUCKET.

TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...THIS TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW TENTHS
HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS MAY STILL BE 25
TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE. AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR THE LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BESIDES CONTINUING CONCERNS REGARDING
EROSION ALONG PLUM ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET...SEVERE
EROSION IS LIKELY TO BE ALSO A CONCERN ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD FROM SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WINDS WILL SHIFTED TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY THAT TIME. NOTE ALSO THAT SOME AREAS
COMPROMISED BY THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE MAY BE POUNDED A SECOND
TIME BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND SOUTH COAST...PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN EXPOSED
RHODE ISLAND COAST...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND...WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND MINOR EROSION FOR THE HIGH
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM TONIGHT DUE TO SWELLS ON TOP OF ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WIND FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO PRECLUDE ANY COASTAL
IMPACTS.

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST
COAST...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL SURGE AND SWELL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AND SOME EROSION ALONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING
SHORELINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK/99
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270228
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
928 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL
IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TRAVEL WILL BECOME
IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR
LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD
 - SERIOUS LIFE-THREATENING STORM / TRAVEL DISCOURAGED!
 - 1 TO 2 FT OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SNOW-BANDING
 - WHITE OUT CONDITIONS / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES
 - STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
 - MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

930 PM UPDATE...
WV LOOP SHOWS CLASSIC CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE WITH WELL DEFINED
COMMA HEAD OFF MID ATLC COAST WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL
LIFTING NWD INTO NEW ENG. STILL PLENTY OF JET ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
TO THE SE US COAST WITH TRAILING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE/MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION OFF NC COAST WITH SCT LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED. IT IS
THIS SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RESULT IN DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
AND EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENG.

FIRST MESOSCALE BAND LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO
RI AND SE MA THIS EVENING ASSOCD WITH ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES.
WILL SEE OCCASIONAL BANDS LIFT N ACROSS SNE TONIGHT WITH TWO
DISTINCT BANDS LIKELY DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE. FIRST
ASSOCD WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW DEEPENS
AND THIS BAND WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS CT AND CENTRAL MA AND
POSSIBLY FURTHER W INTO W MA DURING TUE. THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF
THIS BAND IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THEN VERY STRONG BANDING SIGNAL
ASSOCD WITH LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
LIFTING ACROSS SE NEW ENG 08-15Z. THIS BAND WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCD
WITH 2-3"/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS SE MA. OTHER NOTABLE FEATURE
IS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 6 C/KM ACROSS SE NEW ENG SUGGESTING
POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION AND THUNDER SNOW WITH ISOLD 4"/HR
RATES.

COASTAL FRONT CURRENTLY WEST OF I95 EXTENDING FROM BETWEEN BED-
BOS TO NW RI. AS SFC LOW APPROACHES BENCHMARK LATE TONIGHT AND
TUE MORNING EXPECT THIS FRONT TO MOVE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR WITH TEMPS CRASHING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN INCLUDING BOS AND PVD.

ONLY CHANGE TO UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE SNOW ACROSS ACK. RECEIVED
REPORT OF 4.5" AS OF 845 PM AND EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE TO AT
LEAST 06Z BEFORE POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

*/ OVERVIEW...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A CRIPPLING/HISTORIC BLIZZARD IMPACTING
S NEW ENGLAND. NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY INTENSIFIES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SE OF NANTUCKET NEAR THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK NE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY ALONG
AN OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENHANCED BY HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED N
ACROSS E CANADA. CLASSIC CONVEYOR BELTS BENEATH H3 JET COUPLING AXES
OF RRQ / LFQ YIELDS STRONG DIFFLUENT MOTIONS ALOFT. LOW VERTICALLY
STACKS / FILLS BECOMING CAPTURED / STALLING BENEATH THE CLOSING
LOW ALOFT RESULTING IN A SLOW-MOVING / LONG-DURATION STORM. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OF 20-30 MB IN 18 HRS. ALREADY ONGOING AS LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE INITIAL NEGATIVE-TILT AHEAD OF
WHICH THE BAROCLINIC-LEAF STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT. LOTS OF OFFSHORE
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY INDICATIVE THAT THIS STORM IS GETTING
BEEFY/INTENSIFYING. ITS BOMBOGENESIS BABY!

KEY TO THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF THE CLOSING H85 / H7 LOW AND
PARENT CYCLONIC WARM- AND DRY-CONVEYOR BELT MOTIONS. PRESENTLY AN
OPEN-WAVE AHEAD OF WHICH A SW-NE BANDING SIGNATURE IS SEEN PER WSR-
88D RETURNS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL F-GEN FORCING ALOFT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE AND IMPACT S/SE NEW ENGLAND FROM NOW INTO
TONIGHT /1-2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES LATE/. THE BAND WILL PIVOT
SSW-NNE AND TROWAL REARWARD OF BOMBING LOW AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEIGHBORED WITH -EPV /POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY/ OF HIGH THETA-E AIR BELOW STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
YIELDS AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SNOWBAND AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSNOW. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HR AROUND
MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEFORMATION ZONE EXPECTED OF MODERATE-HEAVY
SNOW. DECENT STAR-SIGNATURES WITHIN FORECAST SNOW-BANDING WITH
STRONG LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH-ZONE.

WHILE THAT IS ONE FORECAST AREA OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING...ANOTHER
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS MAXIMIZED BENEATH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS DRY AIR AT -10C E...SO ICE SHOULD
BE PRESENT AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER THRU WHICH STRONG FORCING
SHOULD OCCUR. THIS BANDING EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER SE NEW ENGLAND
ADDING MORE SNOW ON TOP OF THE INITIAL FRONT-END THUMP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES W TO E AS THE LOW PULLS OUT TO SEA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING REARWARD AROUND THE
LOW WILL LEND TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OF WHICH WILL INVIGORATE ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE BANDING THOUGH NOT
AS WIDESPREAD...MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS
AND THE LOW STACKS / OCCLUDES LENDING TO ITS DYING STAGE. ALL THAT
WILL BE LEFT IS ROBUST NW-WINDS DRAWING COLDER AIR S GENERATING
FAIRLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES...ESPECIALLY IN WAKE OF A DEEP-LAYER
OF SNOW ANTICIPATED.

OVERALL WENT WITH MESOSCALE MODELS /MAINLY THE NAM WITH A TOUCH
OF THE WRF/ ALONG WITH A EC/WPC BLEND POINT TO THE TWO AREAS IN
QUESTION FOR SNOW-BANDING. ALL OTHER MODELS /GFS-CANADIAN-UKMET/
WERE CLUSTERED A BIT FASTER. OVERALL IT REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS
THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OF LOW POSITIONING AND
THERE REMAINS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

SO A WORD OF CAUTION. WHILE THERE IS FOCUS OF TWO AREAS ACROSS S NEW
ENGLAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH A LULL IN BETWEEN...THIS IS
AN UNPRECEDENTED STORM FOR ALL S NEW ENGLAND FOR WHICH PREPARATIONS
SHOULD HAVE BEEN MADE AND ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN ON A SIMILAR NATURE
NO MATTER IF YOU`RE UNDER A BLIZZARD OR WINTER STORM WARNING. THIS
IS A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM. YOU SHOULD NOT BE OUT ON
THE ROADS...LEAVING THEM CLEAR FOR EMERGENCY OFFICIALS AND SNOW-
REMOVAL EQUIPMENT. YOU SHOULD BE TAKING SHELTER AND MAKING PLANS IN
CASE YOU BECOME TRAPPED FOR DAYS AND/OR LOSE POWER. CONSIDER ANY AND
ALL POSSIBILITIES NO MATTER WHAT YOU THINK THE OUTCOMES MAY BE.

*/ PRECIPITATION-TYPE...

CONTINUED INDICATIONS THAT WE WILL SEE A CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN ACROSS
THE E-HALF OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...POSSIBLY MARTHAS VINEYARD
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE TRANSITION LINE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING NW THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME PRIOR TO CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW
AS WE GO INTO LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE STORM BEGINS TO EXIT. PRECIP N/W
OF H925 0C LINE / COASTAL FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW. MODEL CONSENSUS
OF THE DRY-SLOT AROUND -10C HAS IT CONFINED MAINLY IN AREAS WHERE
RAIN IS EXPECTED. FEEL THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVELS ESPECIALLY WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT AND MESOSCALE BANDING SHOULD BE DEEP AND COLD ENOUGH
TO RETAIN THE PRESENCE OF ICE AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER.

*/ BLIZZARD...

TWO AREAS OF FOCUS: SE AND W NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHLIGHTED MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING UP ABOVE. ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN BANDING...ALONG WITH THUNDERSNOW
POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A FOOT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
6-HOURS. COUPLED WITH WINDS ESPECIALLY E/SE WILL MAKE FOR BLIZZARD /
WHITE-OUT / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL
GRAPHIC UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THINKING. HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED.
DID NOT GO WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THIS FORECAST.

LOWER SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TOWARDS THE NW IN COLDER AIR. A WETTER
SNOW CLOSER TO THE COAST TO THE SE. COMBINING WITH WINDS WILL MAKE
SE NEW ENGLAND BOTH VULNERABLE AND THE HIGHEST RISK AREA FOR POWER
OUTAGES...AS WELL AS DOWNED TREE / TREE LIMBS / STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING UPWARDS
OF 3 FEET...MAINLY IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WHERE MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING IS EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE/LIFE-THREATENING
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION.

*/ WINDS...

STRONGEST NE-WINDS CENTERED AROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AGREE WITH
PRIOR FORECASTER THAT LOW-LEVEL PROFILES WELL-MIXED UP TO H9 SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF MOMENTUM WITHIN LOWEST 2 KFT TO MIX-DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 80 MPH REMAIN
FORECASTED FOR SE-COASTAL MA INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE
COD...ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN CAPE ANN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION CLOSELY. SUCH WINDS ARE COVERED WITHIN THE BLIZZARD
WARNING...THUS HURRICANE WIND FORCE WARNINGS ARE NOT ISSUED.

SO TO REITERATE...70 TO 80 MPH FOR SE-COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS AND EVEN
POSSIBLY FOR CAPE ANN. AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH GUSTS INLAND AROUND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR / ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR.

WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...DOWNED TREES/TREE LIMBS...STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE. RISKS ARE GREATER WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY / WET /
MORE WATER LADEN. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES OVERALL WITH
GREATEST IMPACTS IN AREAS WITH STRONGEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
DISCUSSION CONTINUES BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEK
* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

26/12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR OVERALL
SYNOPTIC HANDLING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE STILL
SOME CRUCIAL DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT THOUGH. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS
APPROACH.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH A FRESH...DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE WITH DIMINISHING
WIND...SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS STILL LIKELY TOO HIGH. WILL MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
LATER THIS WEEK TO DIAL THIS IN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. THE PRIMARY TRACK
OF A CLIPPER LOW SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SNOWFALL. PLOWABLE AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...EVEN WITH THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.

THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR APPROACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION IF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CAN DEVELOP AND GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.  29/12Z ECMWF HAS COME CLOSER TO THE GFS
SOLUTION...BOTH IN TRACK AND TIMING. AT PRESENT...WILL PLACE A
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO SAY MORE THAN THAT AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM IS MOVING INTO THE REGION. HEAVY SNOW WILL
MOVE UP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 1-3 INCH PER HOUR RATES...AND LOCAL 4
INCH PER HOUR RATES POSSIBLE. NORTH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS IN THE CT VALLEY
AND CENTRAL MASS...40-50 KNOTS IN THE BOS-PVD COASTAL PLAIN
AREA...AND 50-70 KNOTS CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST. EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT MOVE IN AT 2000 FEET AGL LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST
AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS. VERY STRONG WIND CONTINUE WITH
GUSTS 70-80 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MASS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY AND DIMINISHES
TUESDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL
KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE...WE COULD SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND A
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST INTENSIFIES. THIS COULD RESULT IN
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
  EASTERN MA COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND TUESDAY
  LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ***

WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR
BOTH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES
ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE MA E COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE OCEAN EXPOSED COASTLINE OF SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND.

CHANGES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE COASTAL FLOOD FORECAST WITH
THE LATEST ISSUANCE. HAVE TWEAKED WAVE AND STORM SURGE FORECASTS
ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY. WE STILL EXPECT THE COASTAL FLOODING IMPACT FOR
THIS STORM TO BE ON PAR WITH THAT FROM THE FEBRUARY 2013 EVENT. KEEP
IN MIND...HOWEVER...THAT NO TWO STORMS ARE EVER EXACTLY ALIKE. SOME
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED A LITTLE LESS AND OTHERS A LITTLE MORE
WITH THIS STORM.

TIDE TIMES...ALONG THE MA E COAST...HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6
AM AND AGAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. HIGH
TIDE SPECIFICALLY IN BOSTON IS AROUND 430 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AND NEAR 5 PM FOR TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THE RI COASTLINE...HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT IS GENERALLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM.

TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...THE STORM SURGE IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE 3
TO 3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY EARLY AM
HIGH TIDE. THE ACTUAL PEAK STORM TIDE COULD BE 15 TO 30 MINUTES
AFTER THE SCHEDULED HIGH TIDE IN SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO THE
INCREASING SURGE. BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE
SEAS TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IN TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
IN BUT NOT LIMITED TO HULL...SCITUATE...AND MARSHFIELD. NE SURFACE
WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...PERHAPS EVEN BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT
ALONG THE CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET COAST. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
AND WAVE RUNUP. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW
INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER BEACHES. WE
ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE EROSION POTENTIAL FOR EAST FACING
SHORELINES ALONG PLUM ISLAND...PLYMOUTH...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND
NANTUCKET.

TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...THIS TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW TENTHS
HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS MAY STILL BE 25
TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE. AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR THE LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BESIDES CONTINUING CONCERNS REGARDING
EROSION ALONG PLUM ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET...SEVERE
EROSION IS LIKELY TO BE ALSO A CONCERN ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD FROM SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WINDS WILL SHIFTED TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY THAT TIME. NOTE ALSO THAT SOME AREAS
COMPROMISED BY THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE MAY BE POUNDED A SECOND
TIME BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND SOUTH COAST...PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN EXPOSED
RHODE ISLAND COAST...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND...WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND MINOR EROSION FOR THE HIGH
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM TONIGHT DUE TO SWELLS ON TOP OF ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WIND FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO PRECLUDE ANY COASTAL
IMPACTS.

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST
COAST...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL SURGE AND SWELL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AND SOME EROSION ALONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING
SHORELINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK/99
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KGYX 270139
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
839 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
845PM UPDATE...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED. SNOW BANDS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE OUTER EDGES ARE ALREADY AFFECTING SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MAINE.

545PM UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST AFTER NOTICING VERY COLD DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF MAINE... EVEN COLDER ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE. THIS WOULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
EVENT AS WELL. WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS OR EVEN NEAR ZERO OVER PARTS OF WESTERN MAINE BY MORNING AS
COLD AIR DAMMING KEEPS THE COLD/DRY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
EVENT. FORECASTER MEMORY OF THE 2013 BLIZZARD INCLUDES
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN PORTLAND DURING THE SNOW AND
THIS SEEMS QUITE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS TIME. WITH STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED... WIND CHILLS WILL BE QUITE COLD. WILL UPDATE THE WSW
HAZARD PRODUCTS TO INCLUDE MENTION OF WIND CHILLS AS ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY BE EXCEEDED ESPECIALLY ACROSS MAINE. HAVE ALSO
UPDATED HOURLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REFLECT SNOW BEGINNING
ALREADY IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SPREADING UP THE COAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT AND INCREASED
MOISTURE. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN EARNEST TONIGHT AND
WE SHOULD HAVE SNOW SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL MAINE
OVERNIGHT. IN FACT SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK IN
THESE LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES TUMBLE IN THE NORTH TONIGHT AS COLD
AIR IS PULLED TOWARDS THE APPROACHING STORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NEW NAM AND GFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE TODAY... HOWEVER THE
EUROPEAN... WHICH GENERALLY HANDLES WINTER STORMS VERY WELL... IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN WHICH INCREASES THE QPF AND
WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE OUR REGION. THE EUROPEAN GETS CAUGHT IN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVELY AND NOT ONLY
STALLS BUT RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON... MEANDERING
AROUND THE BENCHMARK... AND DEEPENING SLIGHTLY MORE THAN THE OTHER
MODELS AS IT DOES SO. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE WIND FIELDS REMAIN VERY
IMPRESSIVE.

CURRENTLY THE STORM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND IS
AROUND 998 MB. WINDS ARE LOOKING NORTHERLY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
EVENT NOW AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND IS PULLED CLOSER TO THE
COAST. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING AN EYE FEATURE SIMILAR
TO A HURRICANE... WHICH ARE PROMINENT ON STRONG MID LATITUDE
CYCLONES. IN ADDITION THE MAIN BANDING FEATURE(S) SHOULD BE
ORIENTED SSW TO NNE... FROM NEAR PORTSMOUTH NH TO LEWISTON ME TO
HARMONY ME EVENTUALLY AS THEY ROTATES ONSHORE. DUE TO THE ABOVE
MODEL CHANGES AND THE BANDING FEATURES MENTIONED... SNOWFALL
TOTALS WERE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY. OTHERWISE NO WHOLESALE CHANGES...
AND HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME EXCEPT FOR UPGRADING THE COASTAL
STORM WATCHES TO WARNINGS.

K INDICES INCREASE TO NEAR 20 ALONG CAPE COD AND DOWNEAST
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY. THE
EXIT SPEED WILL BE MODEL DETERMINANT...HOWEVER THE EURO IS THE
LEAST PROGRESSIVE AND STALLS OVER NANTUCKET BEFORE SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW. ON FRIDAY...CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS. THE EURO SOLUTION REMAINS VERY
INTERESTING...WITH LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENING IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. THIS COULD BE AN INTERESTING EVENT AS WELL IF THE SYSTEM
CUTS OFF SOON ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH.

VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR POURS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SOME OF THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY TONIGHT TO
MVFR AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
SNOW AFFECTING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS FAR NORTH AS A KLEB
TO KAUG LINE ARE LIKELY BY 12Z...CREATING LIFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS. ALL TERMINALS WILL DROP TO THESE LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LIKELY EXCEPTION OF WHITEFIELD.

LONG TERM...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BE IMPROVING WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY...IFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FRIDAY IN ANOTHER COASTAL LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
VERY STRONG WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 25`.

LONG TERM...
WINDS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS
MAY RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES WILL BE BUILDING LATE TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND
HIGH TIDE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A TWO FOOT STORM SURGE WILL
ALLOW PORTLAND AND HAMPTON TO REACH THEIR FLOOD STAGE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON JUST PRIOR TO HIGH
TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE. THIS IS VERY MODEL
DEPENDENT HOWEVER WITH THE EURO DANGEROUSLY BACKING IN THE STORM
TO NANTUCKET ISLAND.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO TUESDAY HIGH TIDES. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT FORTUNES ROCKS...JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS AND FERRY BEACHES
IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

NERACOOS SPLASH-OVER NOMOGRAMS ALSO SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ISSUES AT
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
SHORT TERM... HANES
LONG TERM... CANNON



000
FXUS61 KGYX 270139
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
839 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
845PM UPDATE...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED. SNOW BANDS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE OUTER EDGES ARE ALREADY AFFECTING SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MAINE.

545PM UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST AFTER NOTICING VERY COLD DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF MAINE... EVEN COLDER ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE. THIS WOULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
EVENT AS WELL. WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS OR EVEN NEAR ZERO OVER PARTS OF WESTERN MAINE BY MORNING AS
COLD AIR DAMMING KEEPS THE COLD/DRY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
EVENT. FORECASTER MEMORY OF THE 2013 BLIZZARD INCLUDES
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN PORTLAND DURING THE SNOW AND
THIS SEEMS QUITE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS TIME. WITH STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED... WIND CHILLS WILL BE QUITE COLD. WILL UPDATE THE WSW
HAZARD PRODUCTS TO INCLUDE MENTION OF WIND CHILLS AS ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY BE EXCEEDED ESPECIALLY ACROSS MAINE. HAVE ALSO
UPDATED HOURLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REFLECT SNOW BEGINNING
ALREADY IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SPREADING UP THE COAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT AND INCREASED
MOISTURE. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN EARNEST TONIGHT AND
WE SHOULD HAVE SNOW SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL MAINE
OVERNIGHT. IN FACT SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK IN
THESE LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES TUMBLE IN THE NORTH TONIGHT AS COLD
AIR IS PULLED TOWARDS THE APPROACHING STORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NEW NAM AND GFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE TODAY... HOWEVER THE
EUROPEAN... WHICH GENERALLY HANDLES WINTER STORMS VERY WELL... IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN WHICH INCREASES THE QPF AND
WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE OUR REGION. THE EUROPEAN GETS CAUGHT IN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVELY AND NOT ONLY
STALLS BUT RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON... MEANDERING
AROUND THE BENCHMARK... AND DEEPENING SLIGHTLY MORE THAN THE OTHER
MODELS AS IT DOES SO. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE WIND FIELDS REMAIN VERY
IMPRESSIVE.

CURRENTLY THE STORM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND IS
AROUND 998 MB. WINDS ARE LOOKING NORTHERLY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
EVENT NOW AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND IS PULLED CLOSER TO THE
COAST. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING AN EYE FEATURE SIMILAR
TO A HURRICANE... WHICH ARE PROMINENT ON STRONG MID LATITUDE
CYCLONES. IN ADDITION THE MAIN BANDING FEATURE(S) SHOULD BE
ORIENTED SSW TO NNE... FROM NEAR PORTSMOUTH NH TO LEWISTON ME TO
HARMONY ME EVENTUALLY AS THEY ROTATES ONSHORE. DUE TO THE ABOVE
MODEL CHANGES AND THE BANDING FEATURES MENTIONED... SNOWFALL
TOTALS WERE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY. OTHERWISE NO WHOLESALE CHANGES...
AND HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME EXCEPT FOR UPGRADING THE COASTAL
STORM WATCHES TO WARNINGS.

K INDICES INCREASE TO NEAR 20 ALONG CAPE COD AND DOWNEAST
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY. THE
EXIT SPEED WILL BE MODEL DETERMINANT...HOWEVER THE EURO IS THE
LEAST PROGRESSIVE AND STALLS OVER NANTUCKET BEFORE SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW. ON FRIDAY...CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS. THE EURO SOLUTION REMAINS VERY
INTERESTING...WITH LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENING IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. THIS COULD BE AN INTERESTING EVENT AS WELL IF THE SYSTEM
CUTS OFF SOON ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH.

VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR POURS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SOME OF THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY TONIGHT TO
MVFR AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
SNOW AFFECTING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS FAR NORTH AS A KLEB
TO KAUG LINE ARE LIKELY BY 12Z...CREATING LIFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS. ALL TERMINALS WILL DROP TO THESE LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LIKELY EXCEPTION OF WHITEFIELD.

LONG TERM...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BE IMPROVING WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY...IFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FRIDAY IN ANOTHER COASTAL LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
VERY STRONG WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 25`.

LONG TERM...
WINDS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS
MAY RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES WILL BE BUILDING LATE TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND
HIGH TIDE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A TWO FOOT STORM SURGE WILL
ALLOW PORTLAND AND HAMPTON TO REACH THEIR FLOOD STAGE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON JUST PRIOR TO HIGH
TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE. THIS IS VERY MODEL
DEPENDENT HOWEVER WITH THE EURO DANGEROUSLY BACKING IN THE STORM
TO NANTUCKET ISLAND.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO TUESDAY HIGH TIDES. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT FORTUNES ROCKS...JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS AND FERRY BEACHES
IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

NERACOOS SPLASH-OVER NOMOGRAMS ALSO SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ISSUES AT
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
SHORT TERM... HANES
LONG TERM... CANNON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262354
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
654 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL
IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TRAVEL WILL BECOME
IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR
LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD
 - SERIOUS LIFE-THREATENING STORM / TRAVEL DISCOURAGED!
 - 1 TO 2 FT OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SNOW-BANDING
 - WHITE OUT CONDITIONS / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES
 - STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
 - MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

*/ OVERVIEW...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A CRIPPLING/HISTORIC BLIZZARD IMPACTING
S NEW ENGLAND. NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY INTENSIFIES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SE OF NANTUCKET NEAR THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK NE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY ALONG
AN OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENHANCED BY HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED N
ACROSS E CANADA. CLASSIC CONVEYOR BELTS BENEATH H3 JET COUPLING AXES
OF RRQ / LFQ YIELDS STRONG DIFFLUENT MOTIONS ALOFT. LOW VERTICALLY
STACKS / FILLS BECOMING CAPTURED / STALLING BENEATH THE CLOSING
LOW ALOFT RESULTING IN A SLOW-MOVING / LONG-DURATION STORM. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OF 20-30 MB IN 18 HRS. ALREADY ONGOING AS LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE INITIAL NEGATIVE-TILT AHEAD OF
WHICH THE BAROCLINIC-LEAF STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT. LOTS OF OFFSHORE
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY INDICATIVE THAT THIS STORM IS GETTING
BEEFY/INTENSIFYING. ITS BOMBOGENESIS BABY!

KEY TO THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF THE CLOSING H85 / H7 LOW AND
PARENT CYCLONIC WARM- AND DRY-CONVEYOR BELT MOTIONS. PRESENTLY AN
OPEN-WAVE AHEAD OF WHICH A SW-NE BANDING SIGNATURE IS SEEN PER WSR-
88D RETURNS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL F-GEN FORCING ALOFT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE AND IMPACT S/SE NEW ENGLAND FROM NOW INTO
TONIGHT /1-2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES LATE/. THE BAND WILL PIVOT
SSW-NNE AND TROWAL REARWARD OF BOMBING LOW AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEIGHBORED WITH -EPV /POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY/ OF HIGH THETA-E AIR BELOW STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
YIELDS AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SNOWBAND AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSNOW. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HR AROUND
MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEFORMATION ZONE EXPECTED OF MODERATE-HEAVY
SNOW. DECENT STAR-SIGNATURES WITHIN FORECAST SNOW-BANDING WITH
STRONG LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH-ZONE.

WHILE THAT IS ONE FORECAST AREA OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING...ANOTHER
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS MAXIMIZED BENEATH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS DRY AIR AT -10C E...SO ICE SHOULD
BE PRESENT AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER THRU WHICH STRONG FORCING
SHOULD OCCUR. THIS BANDING EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER SE NEW ENGLAND
ADDING MORE SNOW ON TOP OF THE INITIAL FRONT-END THUMP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES W TO E AS THE LOW PULLS OUT TO SEA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING REARWARD AROUND THE
LOW WILL LEND TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OF WHICH WILL INVIGORATE ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE BANDING THOUGH NOT
AS WIDESPREAD...MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS
AND THE LOW STACKS / OCCLUDES LENDING TO ITS DYING STAGE. ALL THAT
WILL BE LEFT IS ROBUST NW-WINDS DRAWING COLDER AIR S GENERATING
FAIRLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES...ESPECIALLY IN WAKE OF A DEEP-LAYER
OF SNOW ANTICIPATED.

OVERALL WENT WITH MESOSCALE MODELS /MAINLY THE NAM WITH A TOUCH
OF THE WRF/ ALONG WITH A EC/WPC BLEND POINT TO THE TWO AREAS IN
QUESTION FOR SNOW-BANDING. ALL OTHER MODELS /GFS-CANADIAN-UKMET/
WERE CLUSTERED A BIT FASTER. OVERALL IT REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS
THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OF LOW POSITIONING AND
THERE REMAINS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

SO A WORD OF CAUTION. WHILE THERE IS FOCUS OF TWO AREAS ACROSS S NEW
ENGLAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH A LULL IN BETWEEN...THIS IS
AN UNPRECEDENTED STORM FOR ALL S NEW ENGLAND FOR WHICH PREPARATIONS
SHOULD HAVE BEEN MADE AND ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN ON A SIMILAR NATURE
NO MATTER IF YOU`RE UNDER A BLIZZARD OR WINTER STORM WARNING. THIS
IS A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM. YOU SHOULD NOT BE OUT ON
THE ROADS...LEAVING THEM CLEAR FOR EMERGENCY OFFICIALS AND SNOW-
REMOVAL EQUIPMENT. YOU SHOULD BE TAKING SHELTER AND MAKING PLANS IN
CASE YOU BECOME TRAPPED FOR DAYS AND/OR LOSE POWER. CONSIDER ANY AND
ALL POSSIBILITIES NO MATTER WHAT YOU THINK THE OUTCOMES MAY BE.

*/ PRECIPITATION-TYPE...

CONTINUED INDICATIONS THAT WE WILL SEE A CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN ACROSS
THE E-HALF OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...POSSIBLY MARTHAS VINEYARD
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE TRANSITION LINE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING NW THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME PRIOR TO CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW
AS WE GO INTO LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE STORM BEGINS TO EXIT. PRECIP N/W
OF H925 0C LINE / COASTAL FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW. MODEL CONSENSUS
OF THE DRY-SLOT AROUND -10C HAS IT CONFINED MAINLY IN AREAS WHERE
RAIN IS EXPECTED. FEEL THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVELS ESPECIALLY WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT AND MESOSCALE BANDING SHOULD BE DEEP AND COLD ENOUGH
TO RETAIN THE PRESENCE OF ICE AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER.

*/ BLIZZARD...

TWO AREAS OF FOCUS: SE AND W NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHLIGHTED MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING UP ABOVE. ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN BANDING...ALONG WITH THUNDERSNOW
POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A FOOT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
6-HOURS. COUPLED WITH WINDS ESPECIALLY E/SE WILL MAKE FOR BLIZZARD /
WHITE-OUT / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL
GRAPHIC UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THINKING. HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED.
DID NOT GO WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THIS FORECAST.

LOWER SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TOWARDS THE NW IN COLDER AIR. A WETTER
SNOW CLOSER TO THE COAST TO THE SE. COMBINING WITH WINDS WILL MAKE
SE NEW ENGLAND BOTH VULNERABLE AND THE HIGHEST RISK AREA FOR POWER
OUTAGES...AS WELL AS DOWNED TREE / TREE LIMBS / STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING UPWARDS
OF 3 FEET...MAINLY IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WHERE MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING IS EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE/LIFE-THREATENING
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION.

*/ WINDS...

STRONGEST NE-WINDS CENTERED AROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AGREE WITH
PRIOR FORECASTER THAT LOW-LEVEL PROFILES WELL-MIXED UP TO H9 SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF MOMENTUM WITHIN LOWEST 2 KFT TO MIX-DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 80 MPH REMAIN
FORECASTED FOR SE-COASTAL MA INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE
COD...ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN CAPE ANN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION CLOSELY. SUCH WINDS ARE COVERED WITHIN THE BLIZZARD
WARNING...THUS HURRICANE WIND FORCE WARNINGS ARE NOT ISSUED.

SO TO REITERATE...70 TO 80 MPH FOR SE-COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS AND EVEN
POSSIBLY FOR CAPE ANN. AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH GUSTS INLAND AROUND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR / ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR.

WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...DOWNED TREES/TREE LIMBS...STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE. RISKS ARE GREATER WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY / WET /
MORE WATER LADEN. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES OVERALL WITH
GREATEST IMPACTS IN AREAS WITH STRONGEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
DISCUSSION CONTINUES BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEK
* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

26/12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR OVERALL
SYNOPTIC HANDLING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE STILL
SOME CRUCIAL DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT THOUGH. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS
APPROACH.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH A FRESH...DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE WITH DIMINISHING
WIND...SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS STILL LIKELY TOO HIGH. WILL MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
LATER THIS WEEK TO DIAL THIS IN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. THE PRIMARY TRACK
OF A CLIPPER LOW SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SNOWFALL. PLOWABLE AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...EVEN WITH THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.

THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR APPROACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION IF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CAN DEVELOP AND GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.  29/12Z ECMWF HAS COME CLOSER TO THE GFS
SOLUTION...BOTH IN TRACK AND TIMING. AT PRESENT...WILL PLACE A
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO SAY MORE THAN THAT AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM IS MOVING INTO THE REGION. ONE BAND OF INCH
PER HOUR SNOWS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IS MOVING NORTHWEST AND WILL
CROSS PVD/BOS/BDL BY 03Z. BRIEF INCH PER HOUR SNOWS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS. THE BROADER AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL
MOVE UP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 1-3 INCH PER HOUR RATES...AND LOCAL 4
INCH PER HOUR RATES POSSIBLE. NORTH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS IN THE CT VALLEY
AND CENTRAL MASS...40-50 KNOTS IN THE BOS-PVD COASTAL PLAIN
AREA...AND 50-70 KNOTS CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST. EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT MOVE IN AT 2000 FEET AGL LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST
AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS. VERY STRONG WIND CONTINUE WITH
GUSTS 70-80 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MASS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY AND DIMINISHES
TUESDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL
KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE...WE COULD SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND A
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST INTENSIFIES. THIS COULD RESULT IN
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
  EASTERN MA COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND TUESDAY
  LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ***

WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR
BOTH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES
ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE MA E COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE OCEAN EXPOSED COASTLINE OF SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND.

CHANGES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE COASTAL FLOOD FORECAST WITH
THE LATEST ISSUANCE. HAVE TWEAKED WAVE AND STORM SURGE FORECASTS
ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY. WE STILL EXPECT THE COASTAL FLOODING IMPACT FOR
THIS STORM TO BE ON PAR WITH THAT FROM THE FEBRUARY 2013 EVENT. KEEP
IN MIND...HOWEVER...THAT NO TWO STORMS ARE EVER EXACTLY ALIKE. SOME
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED A LITTLE LESS AND OTHERS A LITTLE MORE
WITH THIS STORM.

TIDE TIMES...ALONG THE MA E COAST...HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6
AM AND AGAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. HIGH
TIDE SPECIFICALLY IN BOSTON IS AROUND 430 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AND NEAR 5 PM FOR TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THE RI COASTLINE...HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT IS GENERALLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM.

TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...THE STORM SURGE IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE 3
TO 3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY EARLY AM
HIGH TIDE. THE ACTUAL PEAK STORM TIDE COULD BE 15 TO 30 MINUTES
AFTER THE SCHEDULED HIGH TIDE IN SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO THE
INCREASING SURGE. BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE
SEAS TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IN TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
IN BUT NOT LIMITED TO HULL...SCITUATE...AND MARSHFIELD. NE SURFACE
WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...PERHAPS EVEN BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT
ALONG THE CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET COAST. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
AND WAVE RUNUP. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW
INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER BEACHES. WE
ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE EROSION POTENTIAL FOR EAST FACING
SHORELINES ALONG PLUM ISLAND...PLYMOUTH...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND
NANTUCKET.

TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...THIS TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW TENTHS
HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS MAY STILL BE 25
TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE. AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR THE LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BESIDES CONTINUING CONCERNS REGARDING
EROSION ALONG PLUM ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET...SEVERE
EROSION IS LIKELY TO BE ALSO A CONCERN ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD FROM SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WINDS WILL SHIFTED TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY THAT TIME. NOTE ALSO THAT SOME AREAS
COMPROMISED BY THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE MAY BE POUNDED A SECOND
TIME BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND SOUTH COAST...PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN EXPOSED
RHODE ISLAND COAST...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND...WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND MINOR EROSION FOR THE HIGH
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM TONIGHT DUE TO SWELLS ON TOP OF ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WIND FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO PRECLUDE ANY COASTAL
IMPACTS.

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST
COAST...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL SURGE AND SWELL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AND SOME EROSION ALONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING
SHORELINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK/99
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262354
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
654 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL
IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TRAVEL WILL BECOME
IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR
LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD
 - SERIOUS LIFE-THREATENING STORM / TRAVEL DISCOURAGED!
 - 1 TO 2 FT OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SNOW-BANDING
 - WHITE OUT CONDITIONS / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES
 - STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
 - MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

*/ OVERVIEW...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A CRIPPLING/HISTORIC BLIZZARD IMPACTING
S NEW ENGLAND. NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY INTENSIFIES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SE OF NANTUCKET NEAR THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK NE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY ALONG
AN OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENHANCED BY HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED N
ACROSS E CANADA. CLASSIC CONVEYOR BELTS BENEATH H3 JET COUPLING AXES
OF RRQ / LFQ YIELDS STRONG DIFFLUENT MOTIONS ALOFT. LOW VERTICALLY
STACKS / FILLS BECOMING CAPTURED / STALLING BENEATH THE CLOSING
LOW ALOFT RESULTING IN A SLOW-MOVING / LONG-DURATION STORM. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OF 20-30 MB IN 18 HRS. ALREADY ONGOING AS LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE INITIAL NEGATIVE-TILT AHEAD OF
WHICH THE BAROCLINIC-LEAF STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT. LOTS OF OFFSHORE
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY INDICATIVE THAT THIS STORM IS GETTING
BEEFY/INTENSIFYING. ITS BOMBOGENESIS BABY!

KEY TO THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF THE CLOSING H85 / H7 LOW AND
PARENT CYCLONIC WARM- AND DRY-CONVEYOR BELT MOTIONS. PRESENTLY AN
OPEN-WAVE AHEAD OF WHICH A SW-NE BANDING SIGNATURE IS SEEN PER WSR-
88D RETURNS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL F-GEN FORCING ALOFT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE AND IMPACT S/SE NEW ENGLAND FROM NOW INTO
TONIGHT /1-2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES LATE/. THE BAND WILL PIVOT
SSW-NNE AND TROWAL REARWARD OF BOMBING LOW AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEIGHBORED WITH -EPV /POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY/ OF HIGH THETA-E AIR BELOW STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
YIELDS AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SNOWBAND AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSNOW. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HR AROUND
MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEFORMATION ZONE EXPECTED OF MODERATE-HEAVY
SNOW. DECENT STAR-SIGNATURES WITHIN FORECAST SNOW-BANDING WITH
STRONG LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH-ZONE.

WHILE THAT IS ONE FORECAST AREA OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING...ANOTHER
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS MAXIMIZED BENEATH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS DRY AIR AT -10C E...SO ICE SHOULD
BE PRESENT AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER THRU WHICH STRONG FORCING
SHOULD OCCUR. THIS BANDING EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER SE NEW ENGLAND
ADDING MORE SNOW ON TOP OF THE INITIAL FRONT-END THUMP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES W TO E AS THE LOW PULLS OUT TO SEA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING REARWARD AROUND THE
LOW WILL LEND TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OF WHICH WILL INVIGORATE ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE BANDING THOUGH NOT
AS WIDESPREAD...MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS
AND THE LOW STACKS / OCCLUDES LENDING TO ITS DYING STAGE. ALL THAT
WILL BE LEFT IS ROBUST NW-WINDS DRAWING COLDER AIR S GENERATING
FAIRLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES...ESPECIALLY IN WAKE OF A DEEP-LAYER
OF SNOW ANTICIPATED.

OVERALL WENT WITH MESOSCALE MODELS /MAINLY THE NAM WITH A TOUCH
OF THE WRF/ ALONG WITH A EC/WPC BLEND POINT TO THE TWO AREAS IN
QUESTION FOR SNOW-BANDING. ALL OTHER MODELS /GFS-CANADIAN-UKMET/
WERE CLUSTERED A BIT FASTER. OVERALL IT REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS
THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OF LOW POSITIONING AND
THERE REMAINS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

SO A WORD OF CAUTION. WHILE THERE IS FOCUS OF TWO AREAS ACROSS S NEW
ENGLAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH A LULL IN BETWEEN...THIS IS
AN UNPRECEDENTED STORM FOR ALL S NEW ENGLAND FOR WHICH PREPARATIONS
SHOULD HAVE BEEN MADE AND ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN ON A SIMILAR NATURE
NO MATTER IF YOU`RE UNDER A BLIZZARD OR WINTER STORM WARNING. THIS
IS A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM. YOU SHOULD NOT BE OUT ON
THE ROADS...LEAVING THEM CLEAR FOR EMERGENCY OFFICIALS AND SNOW-
REMOVAL EQUIPMENT. YOU SHOULD BE TAKING SHELTER AND MAKING PLANS IN
CASE YOU BECOME TRAPPED FOR DAYS AND/OR LOSE POWER. CONSIDER ANY AND
ALL POSSIBILITIES NO MATTER WHAT YOU THINK THE OUTCOMES MAY BE.

*/ PRECIPITATION-TYPE...

CONTINUED INDICATIONS THAT WE WILL SEE A CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN ACROSS
THE E-HALF OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...POSSIBLY MARTHAS VINEYARD
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE TRANSITION LINE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING NW THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME PRIOR TO CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW
AS WE GO INTO LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE STORM BEGINS TO EXIT. PRECIP N/W
OF H925 0C LINE / COASTAL FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW. MODEL CONSENSUS
OF THE DRY-SLOT AROUND -10C HAS IT CONFINED MAINLY IN AREAS WHERE
RAIN IS EXPECTED. FEEL THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVELS ESPECIALLY WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT AND MESOSCALE BANDING SHOULD BE DEEP AND COLD ENOUGH
TO RETAIN THE PRESENCE OF ICE AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER.

*/ BLIZZARD...

TWO AREAS OF FOCUS: SE AND W NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHLIGHTED MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING UP ABOVE. ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN BANDING...ALONG WITH THUNDERSNOW
POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A FOOT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
6-HOURS. COUPLED WITH WINDS ESPECIALLY E/SE WILL MAKE FOR BLIZZARD /
WHITE-OUT / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL
GRAPHIC UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THINKING. HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED.
DID NOT GO WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THIS FORECAST.

LOWER SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TOWARDS THE NW IN COLDER AIR. A WETTER
SNOW CLOSER TO THE COAST TO THE SE. COMBINING WITH WINDS WILL MAKE
SE NEW ENGLAND BOTH VULNERABLE AND THE HIGHEST RISK AREA FOR POWER
OUTAGES...AS WELL AS DOWNED TREE / TREE LIMBS / STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING UPWARDS
OF 3 FEET...MAINLY IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WHERE MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING IS EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE/LIFE-THREATENING
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION.

*/ WINDS...

STRONGEST NE-WINDS CENTERED AROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AGREE WITH
PRIOR FORECASTER THAT LOW-LEVEL PROFILES WELL-MIXED UP TO H9 SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF MOMENTUM WITHIN LOWEST 2 KFT TO MIX-DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 80 MPH REMAIN
FORECASTED FOR SE-COASTAL MA INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE
COD...ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN CAPE ANN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION CLOSELY. SUCH WINDS ARE COVERED WITHIN THE BLIZZARD
WARNING...THUS HURRICANE WIND FORCE WARNINGS ARE NOT ISSUED.

SO TO REITERATE...70 TO 80 MPH FOR SE-COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS AND EVEN
POSSIBLY FOR CAPE ANN. AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH GUSTS INLAND AROUND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR / ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR.

WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...DOWNED TREES/TREE LIMBS...STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE. RISKS ARE GREATER WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY / WET /
MORE WATER LADEN. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES OVERALL WITH
GREATEST IMPACTS IN AREAS WITH STRONGEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
DISCUSSION CONTINUES BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEK
* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

26/12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR OVERALL
SYNOPTIC HANDLING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE STILL
SOME CRUCIAL DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT THOUGH. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS
APPROACH.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH A FRESH...DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE WITH DIMINISHING
WIND...SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS STILL LIKELY TOO HIGH. WILL MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
LATER THIS WEEK TO DIAL THIS IN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. THE PRIMARY TRACK
OF A CLIPPER LOW SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SNOWFALL. PLOWABLE AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...EVEN WITH THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.

THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR APPROACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION IF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CAN DEVELOP AND GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.  29/12Z ECMWF HAS COME CLOSER TO THE GFS
SOLUTION...BOTH IN TRACK AND TIMING. AT PRESENT...WILL PLACE A
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO SAY MORE THAN THAT AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM IS MOVING INTO THE REGION. ONE BAND OF INCH
PER HOUR SNOWS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IS MOVING NORTHWEST AND WILL
CROSS PVD/BOS/BDL BY 03Z. BRIEF INCH PER HOUR SNOWS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS. THE BROADER AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL
MOVE UP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 1-3 INCH PER HOUR RATES...AND LOCAL 4
INCH PER HOUR RATES POSSIBLE. NORTH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS IN THE CT VALLEY
AND CENTRAL MASS...40-50 KNOTS IN THE BOS-PVD COASTAL PLAIN
AREA...AND 50-70 KNOTS CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST. EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT MOVE IN AT 2000 FEET AGL LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST
AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS. VERY STRONG WIND CONTINUE WITH
GUSTS 70-80 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MASS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY AND DIMINISHES
TUESDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL
KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE...WE COULD SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND A
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST INTENSIFIES. THIS COULD RESULT IN
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
  EASTERN MA COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND TUESDAY
  LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ***

WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR
BOTH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES
ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE MA E COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE OCEAN EXPOSED COASTLINE OF SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND.

CHANGES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE COASTAL FLOOD FORECAST WITH
THE LATEST ISSUANCE. HAVE TWEAKED WAVE AND STORM SURGE FORECASTS
ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY. WE STILL EXPECT THE COASTAL FLOODING IMPACT FOR
THIS STORM TO BE ON PAR WITH THAT FROM THE FEBRUARY 2013 EVENT. KEEP
IN MIND...HOWEVER...THAT NO TWO STORMS ARE EVER EXACTLY ALIKE. SOME
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED A LITTLE LESS AND OTHERS A LITTLE MORE
WITH THIS STORM.

TIDE TIMES...ALONG THE MA E COAST...HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6
AM AND AGAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. HIGH
TIDE SPECIFICALLY IN BOSTON IS AROUND 430 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AND NEAR 5 PM FOR TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THE RI COASTLINE...HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT IS GENERALLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM.

TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...THE STORM SURGE IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE 3
TO 3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY EARLY AM
HIGH TIDE. THE ACTUAL PEAK STORM TIDE COULD BE 15 TO 30 MINUTES
AFTER THE SCHEDULED HIGH TIDE IN SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO THE
INCREASING SURGE. BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE
SEAS TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IN TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
IN BUT NOT LIMITED TO HULL...SCITUATE...AND MARSHFIELD. NE SURFACE
WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...PERHAPS EVEN BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT
ALONG THE CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET COAST. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
AND WAVE RUNUP. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW
INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER BEACHES. WE
ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE EROSION POTENTIAL FOR EAST FACING
SHORELINES ALONG PLUM ISLAND...PLYMOUTH...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND
NANTUCKET.

TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...THIS TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW TENTHS
HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS MAY STILL BE 25
TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE. AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR THE LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BESIDES CONTINUING CONCERNS REGARDING
EROSION ALONG PLUM ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET...SEVERE
EROSION IS LIKELY TO BE ALSO A CONCERN ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD FROM SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WINDS WILL SHIFTED TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY THAT TIME. NOTE ALSO THAT SOME AREAS
COMPROMISED BY THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE MAY BE POUNDED A SECOND
TIME BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND SOUTH COAST...PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN EXPOSED
RHODE ISLAND COAST...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND...WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND MINOR EROSION FOR THE HIGH
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM TONIGHT DUE TO SWELLS ON TOP OF ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WIND FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO PRECLUDE ANY COASTAL
IMPACTS.

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST
COAST...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL SURGE AND SWELL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AND SOME EROSION ALONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING
SHORELINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK/99
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KGYX 262244
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
544 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
545PM UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST AFTER NOTICING VERY COLD DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF MAINE... EVEN COLDER ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE. THIS WOULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
EVENT AS WELL. WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS OR EVEN NEAR ZERO OVER PARTS OF WESTERN MAINE BY MORNING AS
COLD AIR DAMMING KEEPS THE COLD/DRY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
EVENT. FORECASTER MEMORY OF THE 2013 BLIZZARD INCLUDES
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN PORTLAND DURING THE SNOW AND
THIS SEEMS QUITE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS TIME. WITH STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED... WIND CHILLS WILL BE QUITE COLD. WILL UPDATE THE WSW
HAZARD PRODUCTS TO INCLUDE MENTION OF WIND CHILLS AS ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY BE EXCEEDED ESPECIALLY ACROSS MAINE. HAVE ALSO
UPDATED HOURLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REFLECT SNOW BEGINNING
ALREADY IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SPREADING UP THE COAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT AND INCREASED
MOISTURE. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN EARNEST TONIGHT AND
WE SHOULD HAVE SNOW SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL MAINE
OVERNIGHT. IN FACT SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK IN
THESE LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES TUMBLE IN THE NORTH TONIGHT AS COLD
AIR IS PULLED TOWARDS THE APPROACHING STORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NEW NAM AND GFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE TODAY... HOWEVER THE
EUROPEAN... WHICH GENERALLY HANDLES WINTER STORMS VERY WELL... IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN WHICH INCREASES THE QPF AND
WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE OUR REGION. THE EUROPEAN GETS CAUGHT IN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVELY AND NOT ONLY
STALLS BUT RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON... MEANDERING
AROUND THE BENCHMARK... AND DEEPENING SLIGHTLY MORE THAN THE OTHER
MODELS AS IT DOES SO. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE WIND FIELDS REMAIN VERY
IMPRESSIVE.

CURRENTLY THE STORM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND IS
AROUND 998 MB. WINDS ARE LOOKING NORTHERLY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
EVENT NOW AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND IS PULLED CLOSER TO THE
COAST. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING AN EYE FEATURE SIMILAR
TO A HURRICANE... WHICH ARE PROMINENT ON STRONG MID LATITUDE
CYCLONES. IN ADDITION THE MAIN BANDING FEATURE(S) SHOULD BE
ORIENTED SSW TO NNE... FROM NEAR PORTSMOUTH NH TO LEWISTON ME TO
HARMONY ME EVENTUALLY AS THEY ROTATES ONSHORE. DUE TO THE ABOVE
MODEL CHANGES AND THE BANDING FEATURES MENTIONED... SNOWFALL
TOTALS WERE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY. OTHERWISE NO WHOLESALE CHANGES...
AND HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME EXCEPT FOR UPGRADING THE COASTAL
STORM WATCHES TO WARNINGS.

K INDICES INCREASE TO NEAR 20 ALONG CAPE COD AND DOWNEAST
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY. THE
EXIT SPEED WILL BE MODEL DETERMINANT...HOWEVER THE EURO IS THE
LEAST PROGRESSIVE AND STALLS OVER NANTUCKET BEFORE SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW. ON FRIDAY...CYCLOGENSIS OCCURS ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS. THE EURO SOLUTION REMAINS VERY
INTERESTING...WITH LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENING IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. THIS COULD BE AN INTERESTING EVENT AS WELL IF THE SYSTEM
CUTS OFF SOON ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH.

VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR POURS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SOME OF THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY TONIGHT TO
MVFR AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
SNOW AFFECTING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS FAR NORTH AS A KLEB
TO KAUG LINE ARE LIKELY BY 12Z...CREATING LIFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS. ALL TERMINALS WILL DROP TO THESE LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LIKELY EXCEPTION OF WHITEFIELD.

LONG TERM...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BE IMPROVING WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY...IFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FRIDAY IN ANOTHER COASTAL LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
VERY STRONG WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 25`.

LONG TERM...
WINDS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS
MAY RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES WILL BE BUILDING LATE TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND
HIGH TIDE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A TWO FOOT STORM SURGE WILL
ALLOW PORTLAND AND HAMPTON TO REACH THEIR FLOOD STAGE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON JUST PRIOR TO HIGH
TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE. THIS IS VERY MODEL
DEPENDENT HOWEVER WITH THE EURO DANGEROUSLY BACKING IN THE STORM
TO NANTUCKET ISLAND.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO TUESDAY HIGH TIDES. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT FORTUNES ROCKS...JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS AND FERRY BEACHES
IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

NERACOOS SPLASH-OVER NOMOGRAMS AS ALSO SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ISSUES
AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
SHORT TERM... HANES
LONG TERM... CANNON



000
FXUS61 KGYX 262244
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
544 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
545PM UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST AFTER NOTICING VERY COLD DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF MAINE... EVEN COLDER ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE. THIS WOULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
EVENT AS WELL. WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS OR EVEN NEAR ZERO OVER PARTS OF WESTERN MAINE BY MORNING AS
COLD AIR DAMMING KEEPS THE COLD/DRY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
EVENT. FORECASTER MEMORY OF THE 2013 BLIZZARD INCLUDES
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN PORTLAND DURING THE SNOW AND
THIS SEEMS QUITE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS TIME. WITH STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED... WIND CHILLS WILL BE QUITE COLD. WILL UPDATE THE WSW
HAZARD PRODUCTS TO INCLUDE MENTION OF WIND CHILLS AS ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY BE EXCEEDED ESPECIALLY ACROSS MAINE. HAVE ALSO
UPDATED HOURLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REFLECT SNOW BEGINNING
ALREADY IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SPREADING UP THE COAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT AND INCREASED
MOISTURE. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN EARNEST TONIGHT AND
WE SHOULD HAVE SNOW SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL MAINE
OVERNIGHT. IN FACT SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK IN
THESE LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES TUMBLE IN THE NORTH TONIGHT AS COLD
AIR IS PULLED TOWARDS THE APPROACHING STORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NEW NAM AND GFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE TODAY... HOWEVER THE
EUROPEAN... WHICH GENERALLY HANDLES WINTER STORMS VERY WELL... IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN WHICH INCREASES THE QPF AND
WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE OUR REGION. THE EUROPEAN GETS CAUGHT IN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVELY AND NOT ONLY
STALLS BUT RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON... MEANDERING
AROUND THE BENCHMARK... AND DEEPENING SLIGHTLY MORE THAN THE OTHER
MODELS AS IT DOES SO. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE WIND FIELDS REMAIN VERY
IMPRESSIVE.

CURRENTLY THE STORM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND IS
AROUND 998 MB. WINDS ARE LOOKING NORTHERLY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
EVENT NOW AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND IS PULLED CLOSER TO THE
COAST. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING AN EYE FEATURE SIMILAR
TO A HURRICANE... WHICH ARE PROMINENT ON STRONG MID LATITUDE
CYCLONES. IN ADDITION THE MAIN BANDING FEATURE(S) SHOULD BE
ORIENTED SSW TO NNE... FROM NEAR PORTSMOUTH NH TO LEWISTON ME TO
HARMONY ME EVENTUALLY AS THEY ROTATES ONSHORE. DUE TO THE ABOVE
MODEL CHANGES AND THE BANDING FEATURES MENTIONED... SNOWFALL
TOTALS WERE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY. OTHERWISE NO WHOLESALE CHANGES...
AND HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME EXCEPT FOR UPGRADING THE COASTAL
STORM WATCHES TO WARNINGS.

K INDICES INCREASE TO NEAR 20 ALONG CAPE COD AND DOWNEAST
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY. THE
EXIT SPEED WILL BE MODEL DETERMINANT...HOWEVER THE EURO IS THE
LEAST PROGRESSIVE AND STALLS OVER NANTUCKET BEFORE SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW. ON FRIDAY...CYCLOGENSIS OCCURS ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS. THE EURO SOLUTION REMAINS VERY
INTERESTING...WITH LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENING IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. THIS COULD BE AN INTERESTING EVENT AS WELL IF THE SYSTEM
CUTS OFF SOON ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH.

VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR POURS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SOME OF THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY TONIGHT TO
MVFR AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
SNOW AFFECTING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS FAR NORTH AS A KLEB
TO KAUG LINE ARE LIKELY BY 12Z...CREATING LIFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS. ALL TERMINALS WILL DROP TO THESE LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LIKELY EXCEPTION OF WHITEFIELD.

LONG TERM...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BE IMPROVING WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY...IFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FRIDAY IN ANOTHER COASTAL LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
VERY STRONG WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 25`.

LONG TERM...
WINDS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS
MAY RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES WILL BE BUILDING LATE TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND
HIGH TIDE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A TWO FOOT STORM SURGE WILL
ALLOW PORTLAND AND HAMPTON TO REACH THEIR FLOOD STAGE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON JUST PRIOR TO HIGH
TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE. THIS IS VERY MODEL
DEPENDENT HOWEVER WITH THE EURO DANGEROUSLY BACKING IN THE STORM
TO NANTUCKET ISLAND.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO TUESDAY HIGH TIDES. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT FORTUNES ROCKS...JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS AND FERRY BEACHES
IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

NERACOOS SPLASH-OVER NOMOGRAMS AS ALSO SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ISSUES
AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
SHORT TERM... HANES
LONG TERM... CANNON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
500 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL
IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TRAVEL WILL BECOME
IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR
LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD
 - SERIOUS LIFE-THREATENING STORM / TRAVEL DISCOURAGED!
 - 1 TO 2 FT OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SNOW-BANDING
 - WHITE OUT CONDITIONS / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES
 - STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
 - MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

*/ OVERVIEW...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A CRIPPLING/HISTORIC BLIZZARD IMPACTING
S NEW ENGLAND. NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY INTENSIFIES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SE OF NANTUCKET NEAR THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK NE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY ALONG
AN OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENHANCED BY HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED N
ACROSS E CANADA. CLASSIC CONVEYOR BELTS BENEATH H3 JET COUPLING AXES
OF RRQ / LFQ YIELDS STRONG DIFFLUENT MOTIONS ALOFT. LOW VERTICALLY
STACKS / FILLS BECOMING CAPTURED / STALLING BENEATH THE CLOSING
LOW ALOFT RESULTING IN A SLOW-MOVING / LONG-DURATION STORM. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OF 40-50 MB IN 18 HRS. ALREADY ONGOING AS LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE INITIAL NEGATIVE-TILT AHEAD OF WHICH
THE BAROCLINIC-LEAF STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT. LOTS OF OFFSHORE LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY INDICATIVE THAT THIS STORM IS GETTING BEEFY/INTENSIFYING.
ITS BOMBOGENESIS BABY!

KEY TO THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF THE CLOSING H85 / H7 LOW AND
PARENT CYCLONIC WARM- AND DRY-CONVEYOR BELT MOTIONS. PRESENTLY AN
OPEN-WAVE AHEAD OF WHICH A SW-NE BANDING SIGNATURE IS SEEN PER WSR-
88D RETURNS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL F-GEN FORCING ALOFT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE AND IMPACT S/SE NEW ENGLAND FROM NOW INTO
TONIGHT /1-2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES LATE/. THE BAND WILL PIVOT
SSW-NNE AND TROWAL REARWARD OF BOMBING LOW AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEIGHBORED WITH -EPV /POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY/ OF HIGH THETA-E AIR BELOW STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
YIELDS AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SNOWBAND AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSNOW. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HR AROUND
MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEFORMATION ZONE EXPECTED OF MODERATE-HEAVY
SNOW. DECENT STAR-SIGNATURES WITHIN FORECAST SNOW-BANDING WITH
STRONG LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH-ZONE.

WHILE THAT IS ONE FORECAST AREA OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING...ANOTHER
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS MAXIMIZED BENEATH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS DRY AIR AT -10C E...SO ICE SHOULD
BE PRESENT AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER THRU WHICH STRONG FORCING
SHOULD OCCUR. THIS BANDING EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER SE NEW ENGLAND
ADDING MORE SNOW ON TOP OF THE INITIAL FRONT-END THUMP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES W TO E AS THE LOW PULLS OUT TO SEA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING REARWARD AROUND THE
LOW WILL LEND TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OF WHICH WILL INVIGORATE ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE BANDING THOUGH NOT
AS WIDESPREAD...MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS
AND THE LOW STACKS / OCCLUDES LENDING TO ITS DYING STAGE. ALL THAT
WILL BE LEFT IS ROBUST NW-WINDS DRAWING COLDER AIR S GENERATING
FAIRLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES...ESPECIALLY IN WAKE OF A DEEP-LAYER
OF SNOW ANTICIPATED.

OVERALL WENT WITH MESOSCALE MODELS /MAINLY THE NAM WITH A TOUCH
OF THE WRF/ ALONG WITH A EC/WPC BLEND POINT TO THE TWO AREAS IN
QUESTION FOR SNOW-BANDING. ALL OTHER MODELS /GFS-CANADIAN-UKMET/
WERE CLUSTERED A BIT FASTER. OVERALL IT REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS
THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OF LOW POSITIONING AND
THERE REMAINS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

SO A WORD OF CAUTION. WHILE THERE IS FOCUS OF TWO AREAS ACROSS S NEW
ENGLAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH A LULL IN BETWEEN...THIS IS
AN UNPRECEDENTED STORM FOR ALL S NEW ENGLAND FOR WHICH PREPARATIONS
SHOULD HAVE BEEN MADE AND ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN ON A SIMILAR NATURE
NO MATTER IF YOU`RE UNDER A BLIZZARD OR WINTER STORM WARNING. THIS
IS A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM. YOU SHOULD NOT BE OUT ON
THE ROADS...LEAVING THEM CLEAR FOR EMERGENCY OFFICIALS AND SNOW-
REMOVAL EQUIPMENT. YOU SHOULD BE TAKING SHELTER AND MAKING PLANS IN
CASE YOU BECOME TRAPPED FOR DAYS AND/OR LOSE POWER. CONSIDER ANY AND
ALL POSSIBILITIES NO MATTER WHAT YOU THINK THE OUTCOMES MAY BE.

*/ PRECIPITATION-TYPE...

CONTINUED INDICATIONS THAT WE WILL SEE A CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN ACROSS
THE E-HALF OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...POSSIBLY MARTHAS VINEYARD
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE TRANSITION LINE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING NW THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME PRIOR TO CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW
AS WE GO INTO LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE STORM BEGINS TO EXIT. PRECIP N/W
OF H925 0C LINE / COASTAL FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW. MODEL CONSENSUS
OF THE DRY-SLOT AROUND -10C HAS IT CONFINED MAINLY IN AREAS WHERE
RAIN IS EXPECTED. FEEL THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVELS ESPECIALLY WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT AND MESOSCALE BANDING SHOULD BE DEEP AND COLD ENOUGH
TO RETAIN THE PRESENCE OF ICE AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER.

*/ BLIZZARD...

TWO AREAS OF FOCUS: SE AND W NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHLIGHTED MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING UP ABOVE. ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN BANDING...ALONG WITH THUNDERSNOW
POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A FOOT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
6-HOURS. COUPLED WITH WINDS ESPECIALLY E/SE WILL MAKE FOR BLIZZARD /
WHITE-OUT / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL
GRAPHIC UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THINKING. HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED.
DID NOT GO WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THIS FORECAST.

LOWER SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TOWARDS THE NW IN COLDER AIR. A WETTER
SNOW CLOSER TO THE COAST TO THE SE. COMBINING WITH WINDS WILL MAKE
SE NEW ENGLAND BOTH VULNERABLE AND THE HIGHEST RISK AREA FOR POWER
OUTAGES...AS WELL AS DOWNED TREE / TREE LIMBS / STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING UPWARDS
OF 3 FEET...MAINLY IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WHERE MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING IS EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE/LIFE-THREATENING
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION.

*/ WINDS...

STRONGEST NE-WINDS CENTERED AROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AGREE WITH
PRIOR FORECASTER THAT LOW-LEVEL PROFILES WELL-MIXED UP TO H9 SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF MOMENTUM WITHIN LOWEST 2 KFT TO MIX-DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 80 MPH REMAIN
FORECASTED FOR SE-COASTAL MA INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE
COD...ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN CAPE ANN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION CLOSELY. SUCH WINDS ARE COVERED WITHIN THE BLIZZARD
WARNING...THUS HURRICANE WIND FORCE WARNINGS ARE NOT ISSUED.

SO TO REITERATE...70 TO 80 MPH FOR SE-COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS AND EVEN
POSSIBLY FOR CAPE ANN. AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH GUSTS INLAND AROUND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR / ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR.

WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...DOWNED TREES/TREE LIMBS...STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE. RISKS ARE GREATER WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY / WET /
MORE WATER LADEN. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES OVERALL WITH
GREATEST IMPACTS IN AREAS WITH STRONGEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEK
* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

26/12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR OVERALL
SYNOPTIC HANDLING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE STILL
SOME CRUCIAL DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT THOUGH. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS
APPROACH.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH A FRESH...DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE WITH DIMINISHING
WIND...SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS STILL LIKELY TOO HIGH. WILL MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
LATER THIS WEEK TO DIAL THIS IN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. THE PRIMARY TRACK
OF A CLIPPER LOW SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SNOWFALL. PLOWABLE AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...EVEN WITH THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.

THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR APPROACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION IF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CAN DEVELOP AND GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.  29/12Z ECMWF HAS COME CLOSER TO THE GFS
SOLUTION...BOTH IN TRACK AND TIMING. AT PRESENT...WILL PLACE A
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO SAY MORE THAN THAT AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND THE EAST. ONE BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS REDUCED VSBYS TO 1-2 MILES MIDDAY. VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO 4-6 MILES BRIEFLY. CIGS AND VSBYS MVFR NORTH OF THE
MASS PIKE AND TREND TO IFR/LIFR SOUTH OF THE PIKE AFTER 21Z.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM WITH SNOWFALL RATES REACHING 2-4 INCHES PER
HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS. STRONG SURFACE WINDS GUSTING 30-35 KNOTS IN THE CT
VALLEY AND 50-60 KNOTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WINDS AT 2000 FEET
WILL REACH 70-80 KNOTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
ISLANDS...LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL
KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE...WE COULD SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND A
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST INTENSIFIES. THIS COULD RESULT IN
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
  EASTERN MA COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND TUESDAY
  LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ***

WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR
BOTH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES
ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE MA E COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE OCEAN EXPOSED COASTLINE OF SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND.

CHANGES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE COASTAL FLOOD FORECAST WITH
THE LATEST ISSUANCE. HAVE TWEAKED WAVE AND STORM SURGE FORECASTS
ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY. WE STILL EXPECT THE COASTAL FLOODING IMPACT FOR
THIS STORM TO BE ON PAR WITH THAT FROM THE FEBRUARY 2013 EVENT. KEEP
IN MIND...HOWEVER...THAT NO TWO STORMS ARE EVER EXACTLY ALIKE. SOME
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED A LITTLE LESS AND OTHERS A LITTLE MORE
WITH THIS STORM.

TIDE TIMES...ALONG THE MA E COAST...HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6
AM AND AGAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. HIGH
TIDE SPECIFICALLY IN BOSTON IS AROUND 430 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AND NEAR 5 PM FOR TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THE RI COASTLINE...HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT IS GENERALLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM.

TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...THE STORM SURGE IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE 3
TO 3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY EARLY AM
HIGH TIDE. THE ACTUAL PEAK STORM TIDE COULD BE 15 TO 30 MINUTES
AFTER THE SCHEDULED HIGH TIDE IN SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO THE
INCREASING SURGE. BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE
SEAS TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IN TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
IN BUT NOT LIMITED TO HULL...SCITUATE...AND MARSHFIELD. NE SURFACE
WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...PERHAPS EVEN BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT
ALONG THE CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET COAST. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
AND WAVE RUNUP. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW
INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER BEACHES. WE
ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE EROSION POTENTIAL FOR EAST FACING
SHORELINES ALONG PLUM ISLAND...PLYMOUTH...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND
NANTUCKET.

TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...THIS TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW TENTHS
HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS MAY STILL BE 25
TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE. AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR THE LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BESIDES CONTINUING CONCERNS REGARDING
EROSION ALONG PLUM ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET...SEVERE
EROSION IS LIKELY TO BE ALSO A CONCERN ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD FROM SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WINDS WILL SHIFTED TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY THAT TIME. NOTE ALSO THAT SOME AREAS
COMPROMISED BY THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE MAY BE POUNDED A SECOND
TIME BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND SOUTH COAST...PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN EXPOSED
RHODE ISLAND COAST...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND...WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND MINOR EROSION FOR THE HIGH
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM TONIGHT DUE TO SWELLS ON TOP OF ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WIND FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO PRECLUDE ANY COASTAL
IMPACTS.

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST
COAST...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL SURGE AND SWELL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AND SOME EROSION ALONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING
SHORELINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK/99
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
500 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL
IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TRAVEL WILL BECOME
IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR
LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD
 - SERIOUS LIFE-THREATENING STORM / TRAVEL DISCOURAGED!
 - 1 TO 2 FT OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SNOW-BANDING
 - WHITE OUT CONDITIONS / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES
 - STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
 - MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

*/ OVERVIEW...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A CRIPPLING/HISTORIC BLIZZARD IMPACTING
S NEW ENGLAND. NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY INTENSIFIES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SE OF NANTUCKET NEAR THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK NE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY ALONG
AN OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENHANCED BY HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED N
ACROSS E CANADA. CLASSIC CONVEYOR BELTS BENEATH H3 JET COUPLING AXES
OF RRQ / LFQ YIELDS STRONG DIFFLUENT MOTIONS ALOFT. LOW VERTICALLY
STACKS / FILLS BECOMING CAPTURED / STALLING BENEATH THE CLOSING
LOW ALOFT RESULTING IN A SLOW-MOVING / LONG-DURATION STORM. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OF 40-50 MB IN 18 HRS. ALREADY ONGOING AS LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE INITIAL NEGATIVE-TILT AHEAD OF WHICH
THE BAROCLINIC-LEAF STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT. LOTS OF OFFSHORE LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY INDICATIVE THAT THIS STORM IS GETTING BEEFY/INTENSIFYING.
ITS BOMBOGENESIS BABY!

KEY TO THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF THE CLOSING H85 / H7 LOW AND
PARENT CYCLONIC WARM- AND DRY-CONVEYOR BELT MOTIONS. PRESENTLY AN
OPEN-WAVE AHEAD OF WHICH A SW-NE BANDING SIGNATURE IS SEEN PER WSR-
88D RETURNS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL F-GEN FORCING ALOFT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE AND IMPACT S/SE NEW ENGLAND FROM NOW INTO
TONIGHT /1-2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES LATE/. THE BAND WILL PIVOT
SSW-NNE AND TROWAL REARWARD OF BOMBING LOW AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEIGHBORED WITH -EPV /POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY/ OF HIGH THETA-E AIR BELOW STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
YIELDS AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SNOWBAND AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSNOW. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HR AROUND
MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEFORMATION ZONE EXPECTED OF MODERATE-HEAVY
SNOW. DECENT STAR-SIGNATURES WITHIN FORECAST SNOW-BANDING WITH
STRONG LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH-ZONE.

WHILE THAT IS ONE FORECAST AREA OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING...ANOTHER
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS MAXIMIZED BENEATH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS DRY AIR AT -10C E...SO ICE SHOULD
BE PRESENT AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER THRU WHICH STRONG FORCING
SHOULD OCCUR. THIS BANDING EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER SE NEW ENGLAND
ADDING MORE SNOW ON TOP OF THE INITIAL FRONT-END THUMP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES W TO E AS THE LOW PULLS OUT TO SEA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING REARWARD AROUND THE
LOW WILL LEND TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OF WHICH WILL INVIGORATE ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE BANDING THOUGH NOT
AS WIDESPREAD...MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS
AND THE LOW STACKS / OCCLUDES LENDING TO ITS DYING STAGE. ALL THAT
WILL BE LEFT IS ROBUST NW-WINDS DRAWING COLDER AIR S GENERATING
FAIRLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES...ESPECIALLY IN WAKE OF A DEEP-LAYER
OF SNOW ANTICIPATED.

OVERALL WENT WITH MESOSCALE MODELS /MAINLY THE NAM WITH A TOUCH
OF THE WRF/ ALONG WITH A EC/WPC BLEND POINT TO THE TWO AREAS IN
QUESTION FOR SNOW-BANDING. ALL OTHER MODELS /GFS-CANADIAN-UKMET/
WERE CLUSTERED A BIT FASTER. OVERALL IT REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS
THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OF LOW POSITIONING AND
THERE REMAINS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

SO A WORD OF CAUTION. WHILE THERE IS FOCUS OF TWO AREAS ACROSS S NEW
ENGLAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH A LULL IN BETWEEN...THIS IS
AN UNPRECEDENTED STORM FOR ALL S NEW ENGLAND FOR WHICH PREPARATIONS
SHOULD HAVE BEEN MADE AND ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN ON A SIMILAR NATURE
NO MATTER IF YOU`RE UNDER A BLIZZARD OR WINTER STORM WARNING. THIS
IS A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM. YOU SHOULD NOT BE OUT ON
THE ROADS...LEAVING THEM CLEAR FOR EMERGENCY OFFICIALS AND SNOW-
REMOVAL EQUIPMENT. YOU SHOULD BE TAKING SHELTER AND MAKING PLANS IN
CASE YOU BECOME TRAPPED FOR DAYS AND/OR LOSE POWER. CONSIDER ANY AND
ALL POSSIBILITIES NO MATTER WHAT YOU THINK THE OUTCOMES MAY BE.

*/ PRECIPITATION-TYPE...

CONTINUED INDICATIONS THAT WE WILL SEE A CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN ACROSS
THE E-HALF OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...POSSIBLY MARTHAS VINEYARD
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE TRANSITION LINE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING NW THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME PRIOR TO CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW
AS WE GO INTO LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE STORM BEGINS TO EXIT. PRECIP N/W
OF H925 0C LINE / COASTAL FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW. MODEL CONSENSUS
OF THE DRY-SLOT AROUND -10C HAS IT CONFINED MAINLY IN AREAS WHERE
RAIN IS EXPECTED. FEEL THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVELS ESPECIALLY WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT AND MESOSCALE BANDING SHOULD BE DEEP AND COLD ENOUGH
TO RETAIN THE PRESENCE OF ICE AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER.

*/ BLIZZARD...

TWO AREAS OF FOCUS: SE AND W NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHLIGHTED MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING UP ABOVE. ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN BANDING...ALONG WITH THUNDERSNOW
POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A FOOT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
6-HOURS. COUPLED WITH WINDS ESPECIALLY E/SE WILL MAKE FOR BLIZZARD /
WHITE-OUT / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL
GRAPHIC UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THINKING. HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED.
DID NOT GO WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THIS FORECAST.

LOWER SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TOWARDS THE NW IN COLDER AIR. A WETTER
SNOW CLOSER TO THE COAST TO THE SE. COMBINING WITH WINDS WILL MAKE
SE NEW ENGLAND BOTH VULNERABLE AND THE HIGHEST RISK AREA FOR POWER
OUTAGES...AS WELL AS DOWNED TREE / TREE LIMBS / STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING UPWARDS
OF 3 FEET...MAINLY IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WHERE MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING IS EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE/LIFE-THREATENING
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION.

*/ WINDS...

STRONGEST NE-WINDS CENTERED AROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AGREE WITH
PRIOR FORECASTER THAT LOW-LEVEL PROFILES WELL-MIXED UP TO H9 SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF MOMENTUM WITHIN LOWEST 2 KFT TO MIX-DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 80 MPH REMAIN
FORECASTED FOR SE-COASTAL MA INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE
COD...ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN CAPE ANN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION CLOSELY. SUCH WINDS ARE COVERED WITHIN THE BLIZZARD
WARNING...THUS HURRICANE WIND FORCE WARNINGS ARE NOT ISSUED.

SO TO REITERATE...70 TO 80 MPH FOR SE-COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS AND EVEN
POSSIBLY FOR CAPE ANN. AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH GUSTS INLAND AROUND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR / ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR.

WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...DOWNED TREES/TREE LIMBS...STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE. RISKS ARE GREATER WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY / WET /
MORE WATER LADEN. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES OVERALL WITH
GREATEST IMPACTS IN AREAS WITH STRONGEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEK
* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

26/12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR OVERALL
SYNOPTIC HANDLING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE STILL
SOME CRUCIAL DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT THOUGH. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS
APPROACH.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH A FRESH...DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE WITH DIMINISHING
WIND...SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS STILL LIKELY TOO HIGH. WILL MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
LATER THIS WEEK TO DIAL THIS IN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. THE PRIMARY TRACK
OF A CLIPPER LOW SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SNOWFALL. PLOWABLE AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...EVEN WITH THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.

THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR APPROACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION IF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CAN DEVELOP AND GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.  29/12Z ECMWF HAS COME CLOSER TO THE GFS
SOLUTION...BOTH IN TRACK AND TIMING. AT PRESENT...WILL PLACE A
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO SAY MORE THAN THAT AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND THE EAST. ONE BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS REDUCED VSBYS TO 1-2 MILES MIDDAY. VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO 4-6 MILES BRIEFLY. CIGS AND VSBYS MVFR NORTH OF THE
MASS PIKE AND TREND TO IFR/LIFR SOUTH OF THE PIKE AFTER 21Z.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM WITH SNOWFALL RATES REACHING 2-4 INCHES PER
HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS. STRONG SURFACE WINDS GUSTING 30-35 KNOTS IN THE CT
VALLEY AND 50-60 KNOTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WINDS AT 2000 FEET
WILL REACH 70-80 KNOTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
ISLANDS...LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL
KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE...WE COULD SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND A
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST INTENSIFIES. THIS COULD RESULT IN
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
  EASTERN MA COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND TUESDAY
  LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ***

WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR
BOTH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES
ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE MA E COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE OCEAN EXPOSED COASTLINE OF SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND.

CHANGES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE COASTAL FLOOD FORECAST WITH
THE LATEST ISSUANCE. HAVE TWEAKED WAVE AND STORM SURGE FORECASTS
ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY. WE STILL EXPECT THE COASTAL FLOODING IMPACT FOR
THIS STORM TO BE ON PAR WITH THAT FROM THE FEBRUARY 2013 EVENT. KEEP
IN MIND...HOWEVER...THAT NO TWO STORMS ARE EVER EXACTLY ALIKE. SOME
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED A LITTLE LESS AND OTHERS A LITTLE MORE
WITH THIS STORM.

TIDE TIMES...ALONG THE MA E COAST...HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6
AM AND AGAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. HIGH
TIDE SPECIFICALLY IN BOSTON IS AROUND 430 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AND NEAR 5 PM FOR TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THE RI COASTLINE...HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT IS GENERALLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM.

TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...THE STORM SURGE IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE 3
TO 3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY EARLY AM
HIGH TIDE. THE ACTUAL PEAK STORM TIDE COULD BE 15 TO 30 MINUTES
AFTER THE SCHEDULED HIGH TIDE IN SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO THE
INCREASING SURGE. BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE
SEAS TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IN TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
IN BUT NOT LIMITED TO HULL...SCITUATE...AND MARSHFIELD. NE SURFACE
WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...PERHAPS EVEN BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT
ALONG THE CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET COAST. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
AND WAVE RUNUP. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW
INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER BEACHES. WE
ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE EROSION POTENTIAL FOR EAST FACING
SHORELINES ALONG PLUM ISLAND...PLYMOUTH...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND
NANTUCKET.

TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...THIS TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW TENTHS
HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS MAY STILL BE 25
TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE. AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR THE LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BESIDES CONTINUING CONCERNS REGARDING
EROSION ALONG PLUM ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET...SEVERE
EROSION IS LIKELY TO BE ALSO A CONCERN ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD FROM SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WINDS WILL SHIFTED TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY THAT TIME. NOTE ALSO THAT SOME AREAS
COMPROMISED BY THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE MAY BE POUNDED A SECOND
TIME BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND SOUTH COAST...PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN EXPOSED
RHODE ISLAND COAST...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND...WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND MINOR EROSION FOR THE HIGH
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM TONIGHT DUE TO SWELLS ON TOP OF ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WIND FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO PRECLUDE ANY COASTAL
IMPACTS.

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST
COAST...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL SURGE AND SWELL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AND SOME EROSION ALONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING
SHORELINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK/99
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 262112
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
412 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL
IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TRAVEL WILL BECOME
IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR
LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR- AND SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD
 - SERIOUS LIFE-THREATENING STORM / TRAVEL DISCOURAGED!
 - 1 TO 2 FT OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SNOW-BANDING
 - WHITE OUT CONDITIONS / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES
 - STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
 - MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

*/ OVERVIEW...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A CRIPPLING/HISTORIC BLIZZARD IMPACTING
S NEW ENGLAND. NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY INTENSIFIES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SE OF NANTUCKET NEAR THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK NE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY ALONG
AN OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENHANCED BY HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED N
ACROSS E CANADA. CLASSIC CONVEYOR BELTS BENEATH H3 JET COUPLING AXES
OF RRQ / LFQ YIELDS STRONG DIFFLUENT MOTIONS ALOFT. LOW VERTICALLY
STACKS / FILLS BECOMING CAPTURED / STALLING BENEATH THE CLOSING
LOW ALOFT RESULTING IN A SLOW-MOVING / LONG-DURATION STORM. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OF 40-50 MB IN 18 HRS. ALREADY ONGOING AS LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE INITIAL NEGATIVE-TILT AHEAD OF WHICH
THE BAROCLINIC-LEAF STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT. LOTS OF OFFSHORE LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY INDICATIVE THAT THIS STORM IS GETTING BEEFY/INTENSIFYING.
ITS BOMBOGENESIS BABY!

KEY TO THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF THE CLOSING H85 / H7 LOW AND
PARENT CYCLONIC WARM- AND DRY-CONVEYOR BELT MOTIONS. PRESENTLY AN
OPEN-WAVE AHEAD OF WHICH A SW-NE BANDING SIGNATURE IS SEEN PER WSR-
88D RETURNS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL F-GEN FORCING ALOFT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE AND IMPACT S/SE NEW ENGLAND FROM NOW INTO
TONIGHT /1-2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES LATE/. THE BAND WILL PIVOT
SSW-NNE AND TROWAL REARWARD OF BOMBING LOW AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEIGHBORED WITH -EPV /POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY/ OF HIGH THETA-E AIR BELOW STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
YIELDS AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SNOWBAND AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSNOW. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HR AROUND
MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEFORMATION ZONE EXPECTED OF MODERATE-HEAVY
SNOW. DECENT STAR-SIGNATURES WITHIN FORECAST SNOW-BANDING WITH
STRONG LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH-ZONE.

WHILE THAT IS ONE FORECAST AREA OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING...ANOTHER
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS MAXIMIZED BENEATH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS DRY AIR AT -10C E...SO ICE SHOULD
BE PRESENT AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER THRU WHICH STRONG FORCING
SHOULD OCCUR. THIS BANDING EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER SE NEW ENGLAND
ADDING MORE SNOW ON TOP OF THE INITIAL FRONT-END THUMP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES W TO E AS THE LOW PULLS OUT TO SEA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING REARWARD AROUND THE
LOW WILL LEND TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OF WHICH WILL INVIGORATE ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE BANDING THOUGH NOT
AS WIDESPREAD...MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS
AND THE LOW STACKS / OCCLUDES LENDING TO ITS DYING STAGE. ALL THAT
WILL BE LEFT IS ROBUST NW-WINDS DRAWING COLDER AIR S GENERATING
FAIRLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES...ESPECIALLY IN WAKE OF A DEEP-LAYER
OF SNOW ANTICIPATED.

OVERALL WENT WITH MESOSCALE MODELS /MAINLY THE NAM WITH A TOUCH
OF THE WRF/ ALONG WITH A EC/WPC BLEND POINT TO THE TWO AREAS IN
QUESTION FOR SNOW-BANDING. ALL OTHER MODELS /GFS-CANADIAN-UKMET/
WERE CLUSTERED A BIT FASTER. OVERALL IT REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS
THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OF LOW POSITIONING AND
THERE REMAINS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

SO A WORD OF CAUTION. WHILE THERE IS FOCUS OF TWO AREAS ACROSS S NEW
ENGLAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH A LULL IN BETWEEN...THIS IS
AN UNPRECEDENTED STORM FOR ALL S NEW ENGLAND FOR WHICH PREPARATIONS
SHOULD HAVE BEEN MADE AND ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN ON A SIMILAR NATURE
NO MATTER IF YOU`RE UNDER A BLIZZARD OR WINTER STORM WARNING. THIS
IS A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM. YOU SHOULD NOT BE OUT ON
THE ROADS...LEAVING THEM CLEAR FOR EMERGENCY OFFICIALS AND SNOW-
REMOVAL EQUIPMENT. YOU SHOULD BE TAKING SHELTER AND MAKING PLANS IN
CASE YOU BECOME TRAPPED FOR DAYS AND/OR LOSE POWER. CONSIDER ANY AND
ALL POSSIBILITIES NO MATTER WHAT YOU THINK THE OUTCOMES MAY BE.

*/ PRECIPITATION-TYPE...

CONTINUED INDICATIONS THAT WE WILL SEE A CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN ACROSS
THE E-HALF OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...POSSIBLY MARTHAS VINEYARD
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE TRANSITION LINE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING NW THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME PRIOR TO CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW
AS WE GO INTO LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE STORM BEGINS TO EXIT. PRECIP N/W
OF H925 0C LINE / COASTAL FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW. MODEL CONSENSUS
OF THE DRY-SLOT AROUND -10C HAS IT CONFINED MAINLY IN AREAS WHERE
RAIN IS EXPECTED. FEEL THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVELS ESPECIALLY WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT AND MESOSCALE BANDING SHOULD BE DEEP AND COLD ENOUGH
TO RETAIN THE PRESENCE OF ICE AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER.

*/ BLIZZARD...

TWO AREAS OF FOCUS: SE AND W NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHLIGHTED MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING UP ABOVE. ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN BANDING...ALONG WITH THUNDERSNOW
POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A FOOT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
6-HOURS. COUPLED WITH WINDS ESPECIALLY E/SE WILL MAKE FOR BLIZZARD /
WHITE-OUT / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL
GRAPHIC UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THINKING. HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED.
DID NOT GO WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THIS FORECAST.

LOWER SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TOWARDS THE NW IN COLDER AIR. A WETTER
SNOW CLOSER TO THE COAST TO THE SE. COMBINING WITH WINDS WILL MAKE
SE NEW ENGLAND BOTH VULNERABLE AND THE HIGHEST RISK AREA FOR POWER
OUTAGES...AS WELL AS DOWNED TREE / TREE LIMBS / STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING UPWARDS
OF 3 FEET...MAINLY IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WHERE MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING IS EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE/LIFE-THREATENING
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION.

*/ WINDS...

STRONGEST NE-WINDS CENTERED AROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AGREE WITH
PRIOR FORECASTER THAT LOW-LEVEL PROFILES WELL-MIXED UP TO H9 SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF MOMENTUM WITHIN LOWEST 2 KFT TO MIX-DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 80 MPH REMAIN
FORECASTED FOR SE-COASTAL MA INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE COD...
ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN CAPE ANN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION CLOSELY. SUCH WINDS ARE COVERED WITHIN THE BLIZZARD
WARNING...THUS HURRICANE WIND FORCE WARNINGS ARE NOT ISSUED.

SO TO REITERATE...70 TO 80 MPH FOR SE-COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS AND EVEN
POSSIBLY FOR CAPE ANN. AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH GUSTS INLAND AROUND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR / ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR.

WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...DOWNED TREES/TREE LIMBS...STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE. RISKS ARE GREATER WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY / WET /
MORE WATER LADEN. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES OVERALL WITH
GREATEST IMPACTS IN AREAS WITH STRONGEST WINDS.

*/ COASTAL FLOODING...

FOR MORE ON THIS PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END WED MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON
ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WED NIGHT AND WITH DEEP
SNOW PACK IN PLACE/DIMINISHING WIND SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD
FALL BELOW ZERO.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
FRI. THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. IF THE ENERGY
ENDS UP GOING NORTH OF US WILL JUST HAVE A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS.
A TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND THE EAST. ONE BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS REDUCED VSBYS TO 1-2 MILES MIDDAY. VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO 4-6 MILES BRIEFLY. CIGS AND VSBYS MVFR NORTH OF THE
MASS PIKE AND TREND TO IFR/LIFR SOUTH OF THE PIKE AFTER 21Z.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM WITH SNOWFALL RATES REACHING 2-4 INCHES PER
HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS. STRONG SURFACE WINDS GUSTING 30-35 KNOTS IN THE CT
VALLEY AND 50-60 KNOTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WINDS AT 2000 FEET
WILL REACH 70-80 KNOTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
ISLANDS...LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT AND/OR FRI.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY
FRI.  DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

*** MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR BOTH
 TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ***

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH THE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ALONG THE
MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HAVE CONVERTED THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TO A WARNING. HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND
6 AM AND AGAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN
BOSTON HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM AND 5 PM.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...STILL ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE
TO BE 3 TO 3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING. THE ACTUAL PEAK STORM TIDE
COULD BE 15 TO 30 MINUTES AFTER THE SCHEDULED HIGH TIDE IN SOME
LOCATIONS DUE TO INCREASING SURGE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET
JUST OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SEAS WILL
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IN TYPICALLY
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY BUT NOT LIMITED TO
HULL...SCITUATE...AND MARSHFIELD. NE SURFACE WINDS ANTICIPATED TO
BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY TUESDAY
AM HIGH TIDE...PERHAPS EVEN GUSTING TO BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT OFF
ALONG THE CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET COAST. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS...WAVE RUNUP
AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR
MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER
BEACHES. WE ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE EROSION POTENTIAL
FOR EAST FACING SHORELINES ALONG PLUM ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM
AND NANTUCKET.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD
BE STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE STILL
EXPECTED FOR THE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BESIDES
CONTINUING CONCERNS REGARDING EROSION ALONG PLUM
ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET...SEVERE EROSION IS
LIKELY TO BE ALSO A CONCERN ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD FROM
SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WINDS WILL SHIFTED TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BY THAT TIME.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THE EXACT TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS /GUSTS TO 70 KT POSSIBLE!/ AND SURGE...WHICH APPEAR TO OCCUR
AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE LATE TUE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. GIVEN THE
TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW TIDE AND HIGH TIDE IS ONLY 6 HRS THERE
ISN/T MUCH MARGIN FOR ERROR HERE. IF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE
COINCIDE WITH ONE OF THESE HIGH TIDES...THEN MORE AREAS WOULD BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...BELK/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262112
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
412 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL
IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TRAVEL WILL BECOME
IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR
LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR- AND SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD
 - SERIOUS LIFE-THREATENING STORM / TRAVEL DISCOURAGED!
 - 1 TO 2 FT OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SNOW-BANDING
 - WHITE OUT CONDITIONS / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES
 - STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
 - MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

*/ OVERVIEW...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A CRIPPLING/HISTORIC BLIZZARD IMPACTING
S NEW ENGLAND. NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY INTENSIFIES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SE OF NANTUCKET NEAR THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK NE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY ALONG
AN OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENHANCED BY HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED N
ACROSS E CANADA. CLASSIC CONVEYOR BELTS BENEATH H3 JET COUPLING AXES
OF RRQ / LFQ YIELDS STRONG DIFFLUENT MOTIONS ALOFT. LOW VERTICALLY
STACKS / FILLS BECOMING CAPTURED / STALLING BENEATH THE CLOSING
LOW ALOFT RESULTING IN A SLOW-MOVING / LONG-DURATION STORM. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OF 40-50 MB IN 18 HRS. ALREADY ONGOING AS LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE INITIAL NEGATIVE-TILT AHEAD OF WHICH
THE BAROCLINIC-LEAF STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT. LOTS OF OFFSHORE LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY INDICATIVE THAT THIS STORM IS GETTING BEEFY/INTENSIFYING.
ITS BOMBOGENESIS BABY!

KEY TO THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF THE CLOSING H85 / H7 LOW AND
PARENT CYCLONIC WARM- AND DRY-CONVEYOR BELT MOTIONS. PRESENTLY AN
OPEN-WAVE AHEAD OF WHICH A SW-NE BANDING SIGNATURE IS SEEN PER WSR-
88D RETURNS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL F-GEN FORCING ALOFT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE AND IMPACT S/SE NEW ENGLAND FROM NOW INTO
TONIGHT /1-2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES LATE/. THE BAND WILL PIVOT
SSW-NNE AND TROWAL REARWARD OF BOMBING LOW AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEIGHBORED WITH -EPV /POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY/ OF HIGH THETA-E AIR BELOW STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
YIELDS AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SNOWBAND AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSNOW. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HR AROUND
MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEFORMATION ZONE EXPECTED OF MODERATE-HEAVY
SNOW. DECENT STAR-SIGNATURES WITHIN FORECAST SNOW-BANDING WITH
STRONG LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH-ZONE.

WHILE THAT IS ONE FORECAST AREA OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING...ANOTHER
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS MAXIMIZED BENEATH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS DRY AIR AT -10C E...SO ICE SHOULD
BE PRESENT AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER THRU WHICH STRONG FORCING
SHOULD OCCUR. THIS BANDING EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER SE NEW ENGLAND
ADDING MORE SNOW ON TOP OF THE INITIAL FRONT-END THUMP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES W TO E AS THE LOW PULLS OUT TO SEA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING REARWARD AROUND THE
LOW WILL LEND TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OF WHICH WILL INVIGORATE ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE BANDING THOUGH NOT
AS WIDESPREAD...MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS
AND THE LOW STACKS / OCCLUDES LENDING TO ITS DYING STAGE. ALL THAT
WILL BE LEFT IS ROBUST NW-WINDS DRAWING COLDER AIR S GENERATING
FAIRLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES...ESPECIALLY IN WAKE OF A DEEP-LAYER
OF SNOW ANTICIPATED.

OVERALL WENT WITH MESOSCALE MODELS /MAINLY THE NAM WITH A TOUCH
OF THE WRF/ ALONG WITH A EC/WPC BLEND POINT TO THE TWO AREAS IN
QUESTION FOR SNOW-BANDING. ALL OTHER MODELS /GFS-CANADIAN-UKMET/
WERE CLUSTERED A BIT FASTER. OVERALL IT REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS
THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OF LOW POSITIONING AND
THERE REMAINS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

SO A WORD OF CAUTION. WHILE THERE IS FOCUS OF TWO AREAS ACROSS S NEW
ENGLAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH A LULL IN BETWEEN...THIS IS
AN UNPRECEDENTED STORM FOR ALL S NEW ENGLAND FOR WHICH PREPARATIONS
SHOULD HAVE BEEN MADE AND ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN ON A SIMILAR NATURE
NO MATTER IF YOU`RE UNDER A BLIZZARD OR WINTER STORM WARNING. THIS
IS A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM. YOU SHOULD NOT BE OUT ON
THE ROADS...LEAVING THEM CLEAR FOR EMERGENCY OFFICIALS AND SNOW-
REMOVAL EQUIPMENT. YOU SHOULD BE TAKING SHELTER AND MAKING PLANS IN
CASE YOU BECOME TRAPPED FOR DAYS AND/OR LOSE POWER. CONSIDER ANY AND
ALL POSSIBILITIES NO MATTER WHAT YOU THINK THE OUTCOMES MAY BE.

*/ PRECIPITATION-TYPE...

CONTINUED INDICATIONS THAT WE WILL SEE A CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN ACROSS
THE E-HALF OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...POSSIBLY MARTHAS VINEYARD
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE TRANSITION LINE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING NW THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME PRIOR TO CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW
AS WE GO INTO LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE STORM BEGINS TO EXIT. PRECIP N/W
OF H925 0C LINE / COASTAL FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW. MODEL CONSENSUS
OF THE DRY-SLOT AROUND -10C HAS IT CONFINED MAINLY IN AREAS WHERE
RAIN IS EXPECTED. FEEL THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVELS ESPECIALLY WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT AND MESOSCALE BANDING SHOULD BE DEEP AND COLD ENOUGH
TO RETAIN THE PRESENCE OF ICE AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER.

*/ BLIZZARD...

TWO AREAS OF FOCUS: SE AND W NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHLIGHTED MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING UP ABOVE. ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN BANDING...ALONG WITH THUNDERSNOW
POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A FOOT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
6-HOURS. COUPLED WITH WINDS ESPECIALLY E/SE WILL MAKE FOR BLIZZARD /
WHITE-OUT / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL
GRAPHIC UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THINKING. HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED.
DID NOT GO WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THIS FORECAST.

LOWER SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TOWARDS THE NW IN COLDER AIR. A WETTER
SNOW CLOSER TO THE COAST TO THE SE. COMBINING WITH WINDS WILL MAKE
SE NEW ENGLAND BOTH VULNERABLE AND THE HIGHEST RISK AREA FOR POWER
OUTAGES...AS WELL AS DOWNED TREE / TREE LIMBS / STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING UPWARDS
OF 3 FEET...MAINLY IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WHERE MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING IS EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE/LIFE-THREATENING
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION.

*/ WINDS...

STRONGEST NE-WINDS CENTERED AROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AGREE WITH
PRIOR FORECASTER THAT LOW-LEVEL PROFILES WELL-MIXED UP TO H9 SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF MOMENTUM WITHIN LOWEST 2 KFT TO MIX-DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 80 MPH REMAIN
FORECASTED FOR SE-COASTAL MA INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE COD...
ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN CAPE ANN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION CLOSELY. SUCH WINDS ARE COVERED WITHIN THE BLIZZARD
WARNING...THUS HURRICANE WIND FORCE WARNINGS ARE NOT ISSUED.

SO TO REITERATE...70 TO 80 MPH FOR SE-COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS AND EVEN
POSSIBLY FOR CAPE ANN. AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH GUSTS INLAND AROUND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR / ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR.

WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...DOWNED TREES/TREE LIMBS...STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE. RISKS ARE GREATER WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY / WET /
MORE WATER LADEN. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES OVERALL WITH
GREATEST IMPACTS IN AREAS WITH STRONGEST WINDS.

*/ COASTAL FLOODING...

FOR MORE ON THIS PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END WED MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON
ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WED NIGHT AND WITH DEEP
SNOW PACK IN PLACE/DIMINISHING WIND SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD
FALL BELOW ZERO.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
FRI. THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. IF THE ENERGY
ENDS UP GOING NORTH OF US WILL JUST HAVE A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS.
A TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND THE EAST. ONE BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS REDUCED VSBYS TO 1-2 MILES MIDDAY. VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO 4-6 MILES BRIEFLY. CIGS AND VSBYS MVFR NORTH OF THE
MASS PIKE AND TREND TO IFR/LIFR SOUTH OF THE PIKE AFTER 21Z.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM WITH SNOWFALL RATES REACHING 2-4 INCHES PER
HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS. STRONG SURFACE WINDS GUSTING 30-35 KNOTS IN THE CT
VALLEY AND 50-60 KNOTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WINDS AT 2000 FEET
WILL REACH 70-80 KNOTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
ISLANDS...LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT AND/OR FRI.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY
FRI.  DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

*** MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR BOTH
 TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ***

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH THE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ALONG THE
MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HAVE CONVERTED THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TO A WARNING. HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND
6 AM AND AGAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN
BOSTON HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM AND 5 PM.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...STILL ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE
TO BE 3 TO 3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING. THE ACTUAL PEAK STORM TIDE
COULD BE 15 TO 30 MINUTES AFTER THE SCHEDULED HIGH TIDE IN SOME
LOCATIONS DUE TO INCREASING SURGE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET
JUST OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SEAS WILL
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IN TYPICALLY
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY BUT NOT LIMITED TO
HULL...SCITUATE...AND MARSHFIELD. NE SURFACE WINDS ANTICIPATED TO
BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY TUESDAY
AM HIGH TIDE...PERHAPS EVEN GUSTING TO BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT OFF
ALONG THE CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET COAST. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS...WAVE RUNUP
AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR
MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER
BEACHES. WE ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE EROSION POTENTIAL
FOR EAST FACING SHORELINES ALONG PLUM ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM
AND NANTUCKET.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD
BE STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE STILL
EXPECTED FOR THE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BESIDES
CONTINUING CONCERNS REGARDING EROSION ALONG PLUM
ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET...SEVERE EROSION IS
LIKELY TO BE ALSO A CONCERN ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD FROM
SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WINDS WILL SHIFTED TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BY THAT TIME.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THE EXACT TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS /GUSTS TO 70 KT POSSIBLE!/ AND SURGE...WHICH APPEAR TO OCCUR
AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE LATE TUE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. GIVEN THE
TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW TIDE AND HIGH TIDE IS ONLY 6 HRS THERE
ISN/T MUCH MARGIN FOR ERROR HERE. IF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE
COINCIDE WITH ONE OF THESE HIGH TIDES...THEN MORE AREAS WOULD BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...BELK/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262112
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
412 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL
IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TRAVEL WILL BECOME
IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR
LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR- AND SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD
 - SERIOUS LIFE-THREATENING STORM / TRAVEL DISCOURAGED!
 - 1 TO 2 FT OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SNOW-BANDING
 - WHITE OUT CONDITIONS / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES
 - STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
 - MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

*/ OVERVIEW...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A CRIPPLING/HISTORIC BLIZZARD IMPACTING
S NEW ENGLAND. NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY INTENSIFIES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SE OF NANTUCKET NEAR THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK NE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY ALONG
AN OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENHANCED BY HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED N
ACROSS E CANADA. CLASSIC CONVEYOR BELTS BENEATH H3 JET COUPLING AXES
OF RRQ / LFQ YIELDS STRONG DIFFLUENT MOTIONS ALOFT. LOW VERTICALLY
STACKS / FILLS BECOMING CAPTURED / STALLING BENEATH THE CLOSING
LOW ALOFT RESULTING IN A SLOW-MOVING / LONG-DURATION STORM. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OF 40-50 MB IN 18 HRS. ALREADY ONGOING AS LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE INITIAL NEGATIVE-TILT AHEAD OF WHICH
THE BAROCLINIC-LEAF STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT. LOTS OF OFFSHORE LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY INDICATIVE THAT THIS STORM IS GETTING BEEFY/INTENSIFYING.
ITS BOMBOGENESIS BABY!

KEY TO THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF THE CLOSING H85 / H7 LOW AND
PARENT CYCLONIC WARM- AND DRY-CONVEYOR BELT MOTIONS. PRESENTLY AN
OPEN-WAVE AHEAD OF WHICH A SW-NE BANDING SIGNATURE IS SEEN PER WSR-
88D RETURNS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL F-GEN FORCING ALOFT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE AND IMPACT S/SE NEW ENGLAND FROM NOW INTO
TONIGHT /1-2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES LATE/. THE BAND WILL PIVOT
SSW-NNE AND TROWAL REARWARD OF BOMBING LOW AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEIGHBORED WITH -EPV /POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY/ OF HIGH THETA-E AIR BELOW STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
YIELDS AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SNOWBAND AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSNOW. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HR AROUND
MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEFORMATION ZONE EXPECTED OF MODERATE-HEAVY
SNOW. DECENT STAR-SIGNATURES WITHIN FORECAST SNOW-BANDING WITH
STRONG LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH-ZONE.

WHILE THAT IS ONE FORECAST AREA OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING...ANOTHER
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS MAXIMIZED BENEATH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS DRY AIR AT -10C E...SO ICE SHOULD
BE PRESENT AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER THRU WHICH STRONG FORCING
SHOULD OCCUR. THIS BANDING EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER SE NEW ENGLAND
ADDING MORE SNOW ON TOP OF THE INITIAL FRONT-END THUMP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES W TO E AS THE LOW PULLS OUT TO SEA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING REARWARD AROUND THE
LOW WILL LEND TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OF WHICH WILL INVIGORATE ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE BANDING THOUGH NOT
AS WIDESPREAD...MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS
AND THE LOW STACKS / OCCLUDES LENDING TO ITS DYING STAGE. ALL THAT
WILL BE LEFT IS ROBUST NW-WINDS DRAWING COLDER AIR S GENERATING
FAIRLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES...ESPECIALLY IN WAKE OF A DEEP-LAYER
OF SNOW ANTICIPATED.

OVERALL WENT WITH MESOSCALE MODELS /MAINLY THE NAM WITH A TOUCH
OF THE WRF/ ALONG WITH A EC/WPC BLEND POINT TO THE TWO AREAS IN
QUESTION FOR SNOW-BANDING. ALL OTHER MODELS /GFS-CANADIAN-UKMET/
WERE CLUSTERED A BIT FASTER. OVERALL IT REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS
THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OF LOW POSITIONING AND
THERE REMAINS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

SO A WORD OF CAUTION. WHILE THERE IS FOCUS OF TWO AREAS ACROSS S NEW
ENGLAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH A LULL IN BETWEEN...THIS IS
AN UNPRECEDENTED STORM FOR ALL S NEW ENGLAND FOR WHICH PREPARATIONS
SHOULD HAVE BEEN MADE AND ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN ON A SIMILAR NATURE
NO MATTER IF YOU`RE UNDER A BLIZZARD OR WINTER STORM WARNING. THIS
IS A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM. YOU SHOULD NOT BE OUT ON
THE ROADS...LEAVING THEM CLEAR FOR EMERGENCY OFFICIALS AND SNOW-
REMOVAL EQUIPMENT. YOU SHOULD BE TAKING SHELTER AND MAKING PLANS IN
CASE YOU BECOME TRAPPED FOR DAYS AND/OR LOSE POWER. CONSIDER ANY AND
ALL POSSIBILITIES NO MATTER WHAT YOU THINK THE OUTCOMES MAY BE.

*/ PRECIPITATION-TYPE...

CONTINUED INDICATIONS THAT WE WILL SEE A CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN ACROSS
THE E-HALF OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...POSSIBLY MARTHAS VINEYARD
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE TRANSITION LINE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING NW THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME PRIOR TO CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW
AS WE GO INTO LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE STORM BEGINS TO EXIT. PRECIP N/W
OF H925 0C LINE / COASTAL FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW. MODEL CONSENSUS
OF THE DRY-SLOT AROUND -10C HAS IT CONFINED MAINLY IN AREAS WHERE
RAIN IS EXPECTED. FEEL THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVELS ESPECIALLY WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT AND MESOSCALE BANDING SHOULD BE DEEP AND COLD ENOUGH
TO RETAIN THE PRESENCE OF ICE AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER.

*/ BLIZZARD...

TWO AREAS OF FOCUS: SE AND W NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHLIGHTED MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING UP ABOVE. ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN BANDING...ALONG WITH THUNDERSNOW
POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A FOOT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
6-HOURS. COUPLED WITH WINDS ESPECIALLY E/SE WILL MAKE FOR BLIZZARD /
WHITE-OUT / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL
GRAPHIC UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THINKING. HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED.
DID NOT GO WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THIS FORECAST.

LOWER SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TOWARDS THE NW IN COLDER AIR. A WETTER
SNOW CLOSER TO THE COAST TO THE SE. COMBINING WITH WINDS WILL MAKE
SE NEW ENGLAND BOTH VULNERABLE AND THE HIGHEST RISK AREA FOR POWER
OUTAGES...AS WELL AS DOWNED TREE / TREE LIMBS / STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING UPWARDS
OF 3 FEET...MAINLY IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WHERE MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING IS EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE/LIFE-THREATENING
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION.

*/ WINDS...

STRONGEST NE-WINDS CENTERED AROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AGREE WITH
PRIOR FORECASTER THAT LOW-LEVEL PROFILES WELL-MIXED UP TO H9 SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF MOMENTUM WITHIN LOWEST 2 KFT TO MIX-DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 80 MPH REMAIN
FORECASTED FOR SE-COASTAL MA INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE COD...
ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN CAPE ANN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION CLOSELY. SUCH WINDS ARE COVERED WITHIN THE BLIZZARD
WARNING...THUS HURRICANE WIND FORCE WARNINGS ARE NOT ISSUED.

SO TO REITERATE...70 TO 80 MPH FOR SE-COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS AND EVEN
POSSIBLY FOR CAPE ANN. AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH GUSTS INLAND AROUND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR / ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR.

WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...DOWNED TREES/TREE LIMBS...STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE. RISKS ARE GREATER WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY / WET /
MORE WATER LADEN. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES OVERALL WITH
GREATEST IMPACTS IN AREAS WITH STRONGEST WINDS.

*/ COASTAL FLOODING...

FOR MORE ON THIS PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END WED MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON
ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WED NIGHT AND WITH DEEP
SNOW PACK IN PLACE/DIMINISHING WIND SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD
FALL BELOW ZERO.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
FRI. THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. IF THE ENERGY
ENDS UP GOING NORTH OF US WILL JUST HAVE A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS.
A TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND THE EAST. ONE BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS REDUCED VSBYS TO 1-2 MILES MIDDAY. VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO 4-6 MILES BRIEFLY. CIGS AND VSBYS MVFR NORTH OF THE
MASS PIKE AND TREND TO IFR/LIFR SOUTH OF THE PIKE AFTER 21Z.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM WITH SNOWFALL RATES REACHING 2-4 INCHES PER
HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS. STRONG SURFACE WINDS GUSTING 30-35 KNOTS IN THE CT
VALLEY AND 50-60 KNOTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WINDS AT 2000 FEET
WILL REACH 70-80 KNOTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
ISLANDS...LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT AND/OR FRI.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY
FRI.  DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

*** MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR BOTH
 TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ***

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH THE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ALONG THE
MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HAVE CONVERTED THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TO A WARNING. HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND
6 AM AND AGAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN
BOSTON HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM AND 5 PM.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...STILL ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE
TO BE 3 TO 3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING. THE ACTUAL PEAK STORM TIDE
COULD BE 15 TO 30 MINUTES AFTER THE SCHEDULED HIGH TIDE IN SOME
LOCATIONS DUE TO INCREASING SURGE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET
JUST OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SEAS WILL
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IN TYPICALLY
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY BUT NOT LIMITED TO
HULL...SCITUATE...AND MARSHFIELD. NE SURFACE WINDS ANTICIPATED TO
BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY TUESDAY
AM HIGH TIDE...PERHAPS EVEN GUSTING TO BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT OFF
ALONG THE CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET COAST. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS...WAVE RUNUP
AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR
MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER
BEACHES. WE ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE EROSION POTENTIAL
FOR EAST FACING SHORELINES ALONG PLUM ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM
AND NANTUCKET.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD
BE STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE STILL
EXPECTED FOR THE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BESIDES
CONTINUING CONCERNS REGARDING EROSION ALONG PLUM
ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET...SEVERE EROSION IS
LIKELY TO BE ALSO A CONCERN ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD FROM
SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WINDS WILL SHIFTED TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BY THAT TIME.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THE EXACT TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS /GUSTS TO 70 KT POSSIBLE!/ AND SURGE...WHICH APPEAR TO OCCUR
AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE LATE TUE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. GIVEN THE
TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW TIDE AND HIGH TIDE IS ONLY 6 HRS THERE
ISN/T MUCH MARGIN FOR ERROR HERE. IF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE
COINCIDE WITH ONE OF THESE HIGH TIDES...THEN MORE AREAS WOULD BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...BELK/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262112
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
412 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL
IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TRAVEL WILL BECOME
IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR
LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR- AND SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD
 - SERIOUS LIFE-THREATENING STORM / TRAVEL DISCOURAGED!
 - 1 TO 2 FT OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SNOW-BANDING
 - WHITE OUT CONDITIONS / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES
 - STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
 - MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

*/ OVERVIEW...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A CRIPPLING/HISTORIC BLIZZARD IMPACTING
S NEW ENGLAND. NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY INTENSIFIES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SE OF NANTUCKET NEAR THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK NE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY ALONG
AN OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENHANCED BY HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED N
ACROSS E CANADA. CLASSIC CONVEYOR BELTS BENEATH H3 JET COUPLING AXES
OF RRQ / LFQ YIELDS STRONG DIFFLUENT MOTIONS ALOFT. LOW VERTICALLY
STACKS / FILLS BECOMING CAPTURED / STALLING BENEATH THE CLOSING
LOW ALOFT RESULTING IN A SLOW-MOVING / LONG-DURATION STORM. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OF 40-50 MB IN 18 HRS. ALREADY ONGOING AS LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE INITIAL NEGATIVE-TILT AHEAD OF WHICH
THE BAROCLINIC-LEAF STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT. LOTS OF OFFSHORE LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY INDICATIVE THAT THIS STORM IS GETTING BEEFY/INTENSIFYING.
ITS BOMBOGENESIS BABY!

KEY TO THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF THE CLOSING H85 / H7 LOW AND
PARENT CYCLONIC WARM- AND DRY-CONVEYOR BELT MOTIONS. PRESENTLY AN
OPEN-WAVE AHEAD OF WHICH A SW-NE BANDING SIGNATURE IS SEEN PER WSR-
88D RETURNS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL F-GEN FORCING ALOFT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE AND IMPACT S/SE NEW ENGLAND FROM NOW INTO
TONIGHT /1-2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES LATE/. THE BAND WILL PIVOT
SSW-NNE AND TROWAL REARWARD OF BOMBING LOW AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEIGHBORED WITH -EPV /POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY/ OF HIGH THETA-E AIR BELOW STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
YIELDS AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SNOWBAND AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSNOW. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HR AROUND
MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEFORMATION ZONE EXPECTED OF MODERATE-HEAVY
SNOW. DECENT STAR-SIGNATURES WITHIN FORECAST SNOW-BANDING WITH
STRONG LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH-ZONE.

WHILE THAT IS ONE FORECAST AREA OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING...ANOTHER
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS MAXIMIZED BENEATH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS DRY AIR AT -10C E...SO ICE SHOULD
BE PRESENT AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER THRU WHICH STRONG FORCING
SHOULD OCCUR. THIS BANDING EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER SE NEW ENGLAND
ADDING MORE SNOW ON TOP OF THE INITIAL FRONT-END THUMP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES W TO E AS THE LOW PULLS OUT TO SEA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING REARWARD AROUND THE
LOW WILL LEND TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OF WHICH WILL INVIGORATE ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE BANDING THOUGH NOT
AS WIDESPREAD...MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS
AND THE LOW STACKS / OCCLUDES LENDING TO ITS DYING STAGE. ALL THAT
WILL BE LEFT IS ROBUST NW-WINDS DRAWING COLDER AIR S GENERATING
FAIRLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES...ESPECIALLY IN WAKE OF A DEEP-LAYER
OF SNOW ANTICIPATED.

OVERALL WENT WITH MESOSCALE MODELS /MAINLY THE NAM WITH A TOUCH
OF THE WRF/ ALONG WITH A EC/WPC BLEND POINT TO THE TWO AREAS IN
QUESTION FOR SNOW-BANDING. ALL OTHER MODELS /GFS-CANADIAN-UKMET/
WERE CLUSTERED A BIT FASTER. OVERALL IT REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS
THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OF LOW POSITIONING AND
THERE REMAINS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

SO A WORD OF CAUTION. WHILE THERE IS FOCUS OF TWO AREAS ACROSS S NEW
ENGLAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH A LULL IN BETWEEN...THIS IS
AN UNPRECEDENTED STORM FOR ALL S NEW ENGLAND FOR WHICH PREPARATIONS
SHOULD HAVE BEEN MADE AND ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN ON A SIMILAR NATURE
NO MATTER IF YOU`RE UNDER A BLIZZARD OR WINTER STORM WARNING. THIS
IS A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM. YOU SHOULD NOT BE OUT ON
THE ROADS...LEAVING THEM CLEAR FOR EMERGENCY OFFICIALS AND SNOW-
REMOVAL EQUIPMENT. YOU SHOULD BE TAKING SHELTER AND MAKING PLANS IN
CASE YOU BECOME TRAPPED FOR DAYS AND/OR LOSE POWER. CONSIDER ANY AND
ALL POSSIBILITIES NO MATTER WHAT YOU THINK THE OUTCOMES MAY BE.

*/ PRECIPITATION-TYPE...

CONTINUED INDICATIONS THAT WE WILL SEE A CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN ACROSS
THE E-HALF OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...POSSIBLY MARTHAS VINEYARD
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE TRANSITION LINE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING NW THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME PRIOR TO CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW
AS WE GO INTO LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE STORM BEGINS TO EXIT. PRECIP N/W
OF H925 0C LINE / COASTAL FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW. MODEL CONSENSUS
OF THE DRY-SLOT AROUND -10C HAS IT CONFINED MAINLY IN AREAS WHERE
RAIN IS EXPECTED. FEEL THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVELS ESPECIALLY WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT AND MESOSCALE BANDING SHOULD BE DEEP AND COLD ENOUGH
TO RETAIN THE PRESENCE OF ICE AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER.

*/ BLIZZARD...

TWO AREAS OF FOCUS: SE AND W NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHLIGHTED MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING UP ABOVE. ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN BANDING...ALONG WITH THUNDERSNOW
POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A FOOT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
6-HOURS. COUPLED WITH WINDS ESPECIALLY E/SE WILL MAKE FOR BLIZZARD /
WHITE-OUT / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL
GRAPHIC UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THINKING. HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED.
DID NOT GO WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THIS FORECAST.

LOWER SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TOWARDS THE NW IN COLDER AIR. A WETTER
SNOW CLOSER TO THE COAST TO THE SE. COMBINING WITH WINDS WILL MAKE
SE NEW ENGLAND BOTH VULNERABLE AND THE HIGHEST RISK AREA FOR POWER
OUTAGES...AS WELL AS DOWNED TREE / TREE LIMBS / STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING UPWARDS
OF 3 FEET...MAINLY IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WHERE MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING IS EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE/LIFE-THREATENING
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION.

*/ WINDS...

STRONGEST NE-WINDS CENTERED AROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AGREE WITH
PRIOR FORECASTER THAT LOW-LEVEL PROFILES WELL-MIXED UP TO H9 SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF MOMENTUM WITHIN LOWEST 2 KFT TO MIX-DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 80 MPH REMAIN
FORECASTED FOR SE-COASTAL MA INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE COD...
ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN CAPE ANN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION CLOSELY. SUCH WINDS ARE COVERED WITHIN THE BLIZZARD
WARNING...THUS HURRICANE WIND FORCE WARNINGS ARE NOT ISSUED.

SO TO REITERATE...70 TO 80 MPH FOR SE-COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS AND EVEN
POSSIBLY FOR CAPE ANN. AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH GUSTS INLAND AROUND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR / ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR.

WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...DOWNED TREES/TREE LIMBS...STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE. RISKS ARE GREATER WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY / WET /
MORE WATER LADEN. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES OVERALL WITH
GREATEST IMPACTS IN AREAS WITH STRONGEST WINDS.

*/ COASTAL FLOODING...

FOR MORE ON THIS PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END WED MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON
ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WED NIGHT AND WITH DEEP
SNOW PACK IN PLACE/DIMINISHING WIND SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD
FALL BELOW ZERO.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
FRI. THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. IF THE ENERGY
ENDS UP GOING NORTH OF US WILL JUST HAVE A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS.
A TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND THE EAST. ONE BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS REDUCED VSBYS TO 1-2 MILES MIDDAY. VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO 4-6 MILES BRIEFLY. CIGS AND VSBYS MVFR NORTH OF THE
MASS PIKE AND TREND TO IFR/LIFR SOUTH OF THE PIKE AFTER 21Z.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM WITH SNOWFALL RATES REACHING 2-4 INCHES PER
HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS. STRONG SURFACE WINDS GUSTING 30-35 KNOTS IN THE CT
VALLEY AND 50-60 KNOTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WINDS AT 2000 FEET
WILL REACH 70-80 KNOTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
ISLANDS...LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT AND/OR FRI.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY
FRI.  DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

*** MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR BOTH
 TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ***

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH THE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ALONG THE
MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HAVE CONVERTED THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TO A WARNING. HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND
6 AM AND AGAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN
BOSTON HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM AND 5 PM.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...STILL ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE
TO BE 3 TO 3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING. THE ACTUAL PEAK STORM TIDE
COULD BE 15 TO 30 MINUTES AFTER THE SCHEDULED HIGH TIDE IN SOME
LOCATIONS DUE TO INCREASING SURGE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET
JUST OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SEAS WILL
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IN TYPICALLY
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY BUT NOT LIMITED TO
HULL...SCITUATE...AND MARSHFIELD. NE SURFACE WINDS ANTICIPATED TO
BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY TUESDAY
AM HIGH TIDE...PERHAPS EVEN GUSTING TO BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT OFF
ALONG THE CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET COAST. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS...WAVE RUNUP
AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR
MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER
BEACHES. WE ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE EROSION POTENTIAL
FOR EAST FACING SHORELINES ALONG PLUM ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM
AND NANTUCKET.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD
BE STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE STILL
EXPECTED FOR THE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BESIDES
CONTINUING CONCERNS REGARDING EROSION ALONG PLUM
ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET...SEVERE EROSION IS
LIKELY TO BE ALSO A CONCERN ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD FROM
SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WINDS WILL SHIFTED TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BY THAT TIME.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THE EXACT TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS /GUSTS TO 70 KT POSSIBLE!/ AND SURGE...WHICH APPEAR TO OCCUR
AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE LATE TUE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. GIVEN THE
TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW TIDE AND HIGH TIDE IS ONLY 6 HRS THERE
ISN/T MUCH MARGIN FOR ERROR HERE. IF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE
COINCIDE WITH ONE OF THESE HIGH TIDES...THEN MORE AREAS WOULD BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...BELK/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KGYX 262041
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
341 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR AND SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT AND INCREASED
MOISTURE. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN EARNEST TONIGHT AND
WE SHOULD HAVE SNOW SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL
MAINE OVERNIGHT. IN FACT SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
DAYBREAK IN THESE LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES TUMBLE IN THE NORTH
TONIGHT AS COLD AIR IS PULLED TOWARDS THE APPROACHING STORM. OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL OR BETTER.

NEW NAM AND GFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE TODAY... HOWEVER THE
EUROPEAN... WHICH GENERALLY HANDLES WINTER STORMS VERY WELL... IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN WHICH INCREASES THE QPF AND
WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE OUR REGION. THE EUROPEAN GETS CAUGHT IN
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVELY AND NOT
ONLY STALLS BUT RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
MEANDERING AROUND THE BENCHMARK... AND DEEPENING SLIGHTLY MORE
THAN THE OTHER MODELS AS IT DOES SO. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE WIND
FIELDS REMAIN VERY IMPRESSIVE.

CURRENTLY THE STORM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND IS
AROUND 998 MB. WINDS ARE LOOKING NORTHERLY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
EVENT NOW AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND IS PULLED CLOSER TO THE
COAST. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING AN EYE FEATURE SIMILAR
TO A HURRICANE... WHICH ARE PROMINENT ON STRONG MID LATITUDE
CYCLONES. IN ADDITION THE MAIN BANDING FEATURE(S) SHOULD BE
ORIENTED SSW TO NNE... FROM NEAR PORTSMOUTH NH TO LEWISTON ME TO
HARMONY ME EVENTUALLY AS THEY ROTATES ONSHORE. DUE TO THE ABOVE
MODEL CHANGES AND THE BANDING FEATURES MENTIONED... SNOWFALL
TOTALS WERE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY. OTHERWISE NO WHOLESALE CHANGES...
AND HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME EXCEPT FOR UPGRADING THE COASTAL
STORM WATCHES TO WARNINGS.

K INDICES INCREASE TO NEAR 20 ALONG CAPE COD AND DOWNEAST
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY. THE
EXIT SPEED WILL BE MODEL DETERMINANT...HOWEVER THE EURO IS THE
LEAST PROGRESSIVE AND STALLS OVER NANTUCKET BEFORE SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW. ON FRIDAY...CYCLOGENSIS OCCURS ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS. THE EURO SOLUTION REMAINS VERY
INTERESTING...WITH LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENING IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. THIS COULD BE AN INTERESTING EVENT AS WELL IF THE SYSTEM
CUTS OFF SOON ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH.

VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR POURS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SOME OF THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY TONIGHT TO
MVFR AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS FAR NORTH AS
A KLEB TO KAUG LINE ARE LIKELY BY 12Z...CREATING LIFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS. ALL TERMINALS WILL DROP TO THESE LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BE IMPROVING WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY...IFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FRIDAY IN ANOTHER COASTAL LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
VERY STRONG WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 25`.

LONG TERM...
WINDS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS
MAY RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES WILL BE BUILDING LATE TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND
HIGH TIDE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A TWO FOOT STORM SURGE WILL
ALLOW PORTLAND AND HAMPTON TO REACH THEIR FLOOD STAGE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON JUST PRIOR TO HIGH
TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE. THIS IS VERY MODEL
DEPENDENT HOWEVER WITH THE EURO DANGEROUSLY BACKING IN THE STORM
TO NANTUCKET ISLAND.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO TUESDAY HIGH TIDES. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT FORTUNES ROCKS...JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS AND FERRY BEACHES
IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

NERACOOS SPLASH-OVER NOMOGRAMS AS ALSO SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ISSUES
AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

HANES/CANNON




000
FXUS61 KGYX 262041
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
341 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR AND SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT AND INCREASED
MOISTURE. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN EARNEST TONIGHT AND
WE SHOULD HAVE SNOW SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL
MAINE OVERNIGHT. IN FACT SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
DAYBREAK IN THESE LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES TUMBLE IN THE NORTH
TONIGHT AS COLD AIR IS PULLED TOWARDS THE APPROACHING STORM. OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL OR BETTER.

NEW NAM AND GFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE TODAY... HOWEVER THE
EUROPEAN... WHICH GENERALLY HANDLES WINTER STORMS VERY WELL... IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN WHICH INCREASES THE QPF AND
WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE OUR REGION. THE EUROPEAN GETS CAUGHT IN
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVELY AND NOT
ONLY STALLS BUT RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
MEANDERING AROUND THE BENCHMARK... AND DEEPENING SLIGHTLY MORE
THAN THE OTHER MODELS AS IT DOES SO. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE WIND
FIELDS REMAIN VERY IMPRESSIVE.

CURRENTLY THE STORM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND IS
AROUND 998 MB. WINDS ARE LOOKING NORTHERLY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
EVENT NOW AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND IS PULLED CLOSER TO THE
COAST. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING AN EYE FEATURE SIMILAR
TO A HURRICANE... WHICH ARE PROMINENT ON STRONG MID LATITUDE
CYCLONES. IN ADDITION THE MAIN BANDING FEATURE(S) SHOULD BE
ORIENTED SSW TO NNE... FROM NEAR PORTSMOUTH NH TO LEWISTON ME TO
HARMONY ME EVENTUALLY AS THEY ROTATES ONSHORE. DUE TO THE ABOVE
MODEL CHANGES AND THE BANDING FEATURES MENTIONED... SNOWFALL
TOTALS WERE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY. OTHERWISE NO WHOLESALE CHANGES...
AND HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME EXCEPT FOR UPGRADING THE COASTAL
STORM WATCHES TO WARNINGS.

K INDICES INCREASE TO NEAR 20 ALONG CAPE COD AND DOWNEAST
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY. THE
EXIT SPEED WILL BE MODEL DETERMINANT...HOWEVER THE EURO IS THE
LEAST PROGRESSIVE AND STALLS OVER NANTUCKET BEFORE SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW. ON FRIDAY...CYCLOGENSIS OCCURS ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS. THE EURO SOLUTION REMAINS VERY
INTERESTING...WITH LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENING IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. THIS COULD BE AN INTERESTING EVENT AS WELL IF THE SYSTEM
CUTS OFF SOON ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH.

VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR POURS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SOME OF THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY TONIGHT TO
MVFR AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS FAR NORTH AS
A KLEB TO KAUG LINE ARE LIKELY BY 12Z...CREATING LIFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS. ALL TERMINALS WILL DROP TO THESE LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BE IMPROVING WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY...IFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FRIDAY IN ANOTHER COASTAL LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
VERY STRONG WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 25`.

LONG TERM...
WINDS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS
MAY RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES WILL BE BUILDING LATE TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND
HIGH TIDE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A TWO FOOT STORM SURGE WILL
ALLOW PORTLAND AND HAMPTON TO REACH THEIR FLOOD STAGE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON JUST PRIOR TO HIGH
TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE. THIS IS VERY MODEL
DEPENDENT HOWEVER WITH THE EURO DANGEROUSLY BACKING IN THE STORM
TO NANTUCKET ISLAND.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO TUESDAY HIGH TIDES. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT FORTUNES ROCKS...JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS AND FERRY BEACHES
IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

NERACOOS SPLASH-OVER NOMOGRAMS AS ALSO SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ISSUES
AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

HANES/CANNON




000
FXUS61 KGYX 262041
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
341 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR AND SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT AND INCREASED
MOISTURE. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN EARNEST TONIGHT AND
WE SHOULD HAVE SNOW SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL
MAINE OVERNIGHT. IN FACT SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
DAYBREAK IN THESE LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES TUMBLE IN THE NORTH
TONIGHT AS COLD AIR IS PULLED TOWARDS THE APPROACHING STORM. OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL OR BETTER.

NEW NAM AND GFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE TODAY... HOWEVER THE
EUROPEAN... WHICH GENERALLY HANDLES WINTER STORMS VERY WELL... IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN WHICH INCREASES THE QPF AND
WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE OUR REGION. THE EUROPEAN GETS CAUGHT IN
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVELY AND NOT
ONLY STALLS BUT RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
MEANDERING AROUND THE BENCHMARK... AND DEEPENING SLIGHTLY MORE
THAN THE OTHER MODELS AS IT DOES SO. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE WIND
FIELDS REMAIN VERY IMPRESSIVE.

CURRENTLY THE STORM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND IS
AROUND 998 MB. WINDS ARE LOOKING NORTHERLY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
EVENT NOW AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND IS PULLED CLOSER TO THE
COAST. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING AN EYE FEATURE SIMILAR
TO A HURRICANE... WHICH ARE PROMINENT ON STRONG MID LATITUDE
CYCLONES. IN ADDITION THE MAIN BANDING FEATURE(S) SHOULD BE
ORIENTED SSW TO NNE... FROM NEAR PORTSMOUTH NH TO LEWISTON ME TO
HARMONY ME EVENTUALLY AS THEY ROTATES ONSHORE. DUE TO THE ABOVE
MODEL CHANGES AND THE BANDING FEATURES MENTIONED... SNOWFALL
TOTALS WERE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY. OTHERWISE NO WHOLESALE CHANGES...
AND HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME EXCEPT FOR UPGRADING THE COASTAL
STORM WATCHES TO WARNINGS.

K INDICES INCREASE TO NEAR 20 ALONG CAPE COD AND DOWNEAST
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY. THE
EXIT SPEED WILL BE MODEL DETERMINANT...HOWEVER THE EURO IS THE
LEAST PROGRESSIVE AND STALLS OVER NANTUCKET BEFORE SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW. ON FRIDAY...CYCLOGENSIS OCCURS ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS. THE EURO SOLUTION REMAINS VERY
INTERESTING...WITH LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENING IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. THIS COULD BE AN INTERESTING EVENT AS WELL IF THE SYSTEM
CUTS OFF SOON ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH.

VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR POURS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SOME OF THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY TONIGHT TO
MVFR AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS FAR NORTH AS
A KLEB TO KAUG LINE ARE LIKELY BY 12Z...CREATING LIFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS. ALL TERMINALS WILL DROP TO THESE LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BE IMPROVING WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY...IFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FRIDAY IN ANOTHER COASTAL LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
VERY STRONG WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 25`.

LONG TERM...
WINDS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS
MAY RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES WILL BE BUILDING LATE TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND
HIGH TIDE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A TWO FOOT STORM SURGE WILL
ALLOW PORTLAND AND HAMPTON TO REACH THEIR FLOOD STAGE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON JUST PRIOR TO HIGH
TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE. THIS IS VERY MODEL
DEPENDENT HOWEVER WITH THE EURO DANGEROUSLY BACKING IN THE STORM
TO NANTUCKET ISLAND.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO TUESDAY HIGH TIDES. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT FORTUNES ROCKS...JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS AND FERRY BEACHES
IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

NERACOOS SPLASH-OVER NOMOGRAMS AS ALSO SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ISSUES
AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

HANES/CANNON




000
FXUS61 KGYX 262041
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
341 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR AND SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT AND INCREASED
MOISTURE. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN EARNEST TONIGHT AND
WE SHOULD HAVE SNOW SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL
MAINE OVERNIGHT. IN FACT SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
DAYBREAK IN THESE LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES TUMBLE IN THE NORTH
TONIGHT AS COLD AIR IS PULLED TOWARDS THE APPROACHING STORM. OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL OR BETTER.

NEW NAM AND GFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE TODAY... HOWEVER THE
EUROPEAN... WHICH GENERALLY HANDLES WINTER STORMS VERY WELL... IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN WHICH INCREASES THE QPF AND
WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE OUR REGION. THE EUROPEAN GETS CAUGHT IN
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVELY AND NOT
ONLY STALLS BUT RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
MEANDERING AROUND THE BENCHMARK... AND DEEPENING SLIGHTLY MORE
THAN THE OTHER MODELS AS IT DOES SO. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE WIND
FIELDS REMAIN VERY IMPRESSIVE.

CURRENTLY THE STORM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND IS
AROUND 998 MB. WINDS ARE LOOKING NORTHERLY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
EVENT NOW AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND IS PULLED CLOSER TO THE
COAST. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING AN EYE FEATURE SIMILAR
TO A HURRICANE... WHICH ARE PROMINENT ON STRONG MID LATITUDE
CYCLONES. IN ADDITION THE MAIN BANDING FEATURE(S) SHOULD BE
ORIENTED SSW TO NNE... FROM NEAR PORTSMOUTH NH TO LEWISTON ME TO
HARMONY ME EVENTUALLY AS THEY ROTATES ONSHORE. DUE TO THE ABOVE
MODEL CHANGES AND THE BANDING FEATURES MENTIONED... SNOWFALL
TOTALS WERE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY. OTHERWISE NO WHOLESALE CHANGES...
AND HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME EXCEPT FOR UPGRADING THE COASTAL
STORM WATCHES TO WARNINGS.

K INDICES INCREASE TO NEAR 20 ALONG CAPE COD AND DOWNEAST
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY. THE
EXIT SPEED WILL BE MODEL DETERMINANT...HOWEVER THE EURO IS THE
LEAST PROGRESSIVE AND STALLS OVER NANTUCKET BEFORE SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW. ON FRIDAY...CYCLOGENSIS OCCURS ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS. THE EURO SOLUTION REMAINS VERY
INTERESTING...WITH LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENING IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. THIS COULD BE AN INTERESTING EVENT AS WELL IF THE SYSTEM
CUTS OFF SOON ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH.

VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR POURS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SOME OF THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY TONIGHT TO
MVFR AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS FAR NORTH AS
A KLEB TO KAUG LINE ARE LIKELY BY 12Z...CREATING LIFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS. ALL TERMINALS WILL DROP TO THESE LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BE IMPROVING WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY...IFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FRIDAY IN ANOTHER COASTAL LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
VERY STRONG WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 25`.

LONG TERM...
WINDS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS
MAY RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES WILL BE BUILDING LATE TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND
HIGH TIDE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A TWO FOOT STORM SURGE WILL
ALLOW PORTLAND AND HAMPTON TO REACH THEIR FLOOD STAGE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON JUST PRIOR TO HIGH
TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE. THIS IS VERY MODEL
DEPENDENT HOWEVER WITH THE EURO DANGEROUSLY BACKING IN THE STORM
TO NANTUCKET ISLAND.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO TUESDAY HIGH TIDES. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT FORTUNES ROCKS...JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS AND FERRY BEACHES
IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

NERACOOS SPLASH-OVER NOMOGRAMS AS ALSO SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ISSUES
AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

HANES/CANNON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1256 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING.
DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...

HERE WE GO.

TOP-DOWN MOISTENING APPARENT BETWEEN 0Z AND 12Z CHATHAM SOUNDING
WITH SOME DRY-AIR LINGERING AROUND H85. MUCH DRIER N PER PORTLAND
MAINE SOUNDING WITH EXTREMELY LOW PWATS. IT IS THE COMBINATION OF
THERMAL-PACKING / AIRMASS ALONG WHICH WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS THAT
WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE W-E F-GEN FORCING ALONG THE DEVELOPING
WARM-FRONT AS ACTIVITY ALOFT NEGATIVELY TROUGHS LENDING TO
INTENSIFICATION OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ENHANCED
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. CHECK OUT THE H85-5
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES OUT OF THE S. H925 WINDS OUT OF THE E...
PERHAPS AIDING IN MOISTENING OF LOW-LEVELS AND ADDING A DEGREE OF
OCEAN-EFFECT FETCH TO THE DISCERNED BANDING. WITHIN THE E-W SNOW
BANDING PRESENTLY IMPACTING THE S-COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF NEW
ENGLAND...VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO A MILE ON AVERAGE. SNOW SHOULD
ACCUMULATE IMMEDIATELY AS TEMPERATURES RANGE AROUND THE UPPER-
TEENS TO LOW-20S AND THE GROUND IS EXCEPTIONALLY COLD.

ALSO SEEING A COASTAL FRONT SETUP SW-NE OFFSHORE OF THE IMMEDIATE
E-MA COASTLINE AND THROUGH THE CAPE-COD CANAL. THE CONVERGENCE OF
WINDS AND DECENT MOISTURE FETCH IS LENDING TO SOME LIGHT SNOWS
OVER THE S-BOSTON-METRO INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY. EXPECTING ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE ANTICIPATED DEEPENING OF LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC.

IMPORTANT: AS ALLUDED TO BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WITH
INCREASING WINDS YIELDS AN INCREASING FETCH. ENHANCEMENT OF
OCEAN-EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS E-MA POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE EVENING
COMMUTE. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES AND SUBSEQUENT REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...COULD BE IMPACTS TO
EVENING BOSTON-METRO AREA COMMUTE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THAT
CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

MODEST AND COLD HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS QC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. WITH DRIER AND COLDER AIR GRADUALLY PULLING N. HOWEVER...IT
IS THANKS TO THIS BLOCK...AND THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE THAN THERE
WAS WITH THE WEEKEND STORM...THAT WILL ALLOW LOW PRES...NEWLY
DEVELOPING OFF THE VA/NC COASTLINE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND SLOW AS
IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*** POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM RAMPS UP TONIGHT ***

* BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A HISTORICAL BLIZZARD IMPACTING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN THERE ARE NOT SOME MESOSCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE APPROACHES. AT
ISSUE AT THIS POINT...ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE FINAL LOW PRES DEPTH
PRIOR TO THE OCCLUSION PROCESS RANGING FROM 978 HPA ON THE NAM/CMC
TO 984 ON THE GFS. AT ODDS ALSO...IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO
DISTINCT BANDED SNOW FEATURES...THE FIRST...A LONG AND SIGNIFICANT
DEFORMATION/F-GEN BAND STRETCHING FROM COASTAL MAIN INTO INTERIOR
SRN NEW ENGLAND...THE TIP OF WHICH COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE
CT VALLEY TO METRO-WEST AND THE MERRIMACK VALLEY. AVAILABLE WRF
OUTPUTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HERE...WITH THE NMM FURTHER W WITH
THE HEAVIER BANDING...WHILE THE ARW IS SUGGESTING THE E. THE OTHER
AREA WILL LIKELY BE FORM CENTRAL RI THROUGH ABOUT THE S SHORE/BOS
METRO OF MASS AS A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS AND WAVERS INLAND. SO IT
IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE TWO BULLSEYES OF SNOW
TOTALS TO WATCH...WHERE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO EXCEED 2
FT. FINALLY...THIS BANDING LOCATION WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON
FINAL TRACK...WHICH ARE STILL IN SOME MESO-SCALE DISPUTE WITH THE
GFS REMAINING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
WHILE THE ECWMF/NAM ARE JUST INSIDE AND MUCH SLOWER...STALLING THE
LOW PRES ONLY ABOUT 50 NM SE OF ACK. THEREFORE...THE BANDING AND
AXIS OF 2.5-3.0 INCH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO WAVER A
BIT...AND WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED AS THE EVENT IS UNFOLDING. WILL
TRY TO SHOW THIS TWO-BULLSEYE SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT WITH THIS
UPDATE...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE HIGH IMPACT STORM ACROSS ALL
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHOLESALE CHANGES WILL NOTE BE MADE.

DETAILS/IMPACTS...

PRECIP TYPE...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCE OF A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
BRIEFLY ESPECIALLY FOR ACK...WITH THE H92 0C LINE INCHING CLOSE
/BUT STAYING MAINLY S WITH THE 00Z RUNS/. NAM IS COLDEST WHILE
ECMWF REMAINS THE COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. GIVEN THE
SLIGHT COOLING SHIFT OF RECENT RUNS AND EXAMINING BUFKIT PROFILES
AND BASED ON IMPACT POTENTIAL...WILL BE UPGRADING ACK TO A WINTER
STORM WATCH THIS THIS UPDATE...AS INITIAL SNOW...FOLLOWED BY BACK
END AFTER THE POTENTIAL CHANGEOVER...COULD STILL EXCEED WARNING
CRITERIA.

TOTAL SNOWFALL/BLIZZARD...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE..WE ARE ALREADY NOTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
THE N AND S SHORES /BOS METRO ALSO/ AROUND THE TIME OF AFTERNOON
RUSH. GIVEN THE STORM PREP...IT/S POSSIBLE MORE COULD BE ON THE
ROAD. THEREFORE...MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME MODEST ACCUMULATIONS
BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVES UP FROM THE SW BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z. BY 00Z IT SHOULD BE SNOWING...ALTHOUGH LIGHTLY TO START
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY TOTALS LIKELY
FALLING BELOW AN INCH OR TWO.

AS STATED THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO BANDING LOCATIONS...ONE
FROM TYPICAL MID-LVL DEFORMATION AND NEGATIVE EPV...WITH THE OTHER
CLOSER TO THE SFC INVOF OF THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS RI-SE MA OR
NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WHILE NAILING THESE DOWN IS DIFFICULT
ALMOST 24 HOURS OUT...MESOSCALE MODELS DO AT THE VERY LEAST
INDICATE THAT WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS...DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR A MAXIMUM AND WITH BANDS OF VERY NEGATIVE EPV...2-3
IN/HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS ARE LIKELY
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING WELL INTO THE DAY ON TUE
AS THESE BANDS SLOWLY PIVOT AND BEGIN A SLOW SHIFT TO THE E. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT...THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT A FOOT IN 6 HOURS OR EVEN LESS.

THEREFORE...FEEL THE MENTION OF 2+ FT OF TOTAL SNOWFALL ACROSS
INTERIOR TO E MA/RI AND EVEN NRN CT IS POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW
SPOTS APPROACHING 3 FT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. REGARDING THE
BLIZZARDS...BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES STILL SUPPORT WINDS NEAR BLIZZ
CRITERIA ALONG WITH THIS POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS WITHIN THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNINGS...SO NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE CHANCE FOR LOWER SN RATIOS NEARER TO THE COASTAL FRONT
LOCATIONS...COLOCATED WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PORTIONS OF SE MA /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST/ FOR THE HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES. HIGHER RATIOS FURTHER INLAND
/COLDER AIR/ ARE EXPECTED.

IT APPEARS OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY DELAY THE END TIME
ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE S SHORE...SE MA AND E RI LATE TUE
INTO WED...WHICH MAY SNOW UNTIL AFTER NOON ON WED. HOWEVER...BY
TUE NIGHT...EXPECT SLOWLY DIMINISHING SNOWFALL RATES FROM W TO E.

WINDS...
GFS HAS BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE LLJ...NOW SUPPORTING 65 KT AT
H92 FROM SRN RI THROUGH BOS AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...NAM/ECMWF
CONTINUE LEAN CLOSER TO 70-80 KT. BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF THIS MOMENTUM BEING MIXED ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COASTLINES. THEREFORE...CAN STILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING HURRICANE VELOCITY NEAR THE SHORE...PARTICULARLY THE
OUTER ARM OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET ALTHOUGH THIS TAPERS
INLAND...STILL COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS 50-60 MPH AS FAR INLAND
AS RI AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WHERE THIS
COINCIDES WITH LOWER RATIO /MORE WATER LADEN/ SNOW...COULD PRODUCE
MORE TREE DAMAGE AND THEREFORE POTENTIALLY MORE POWER OUTAGES.

COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR MORE ON THIS...PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END WED MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WED NIGHT AND WITH DEEP SNOW PACK IN
PLACE/DIMINISHING WIND SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
FRI.  THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.  IF THE ENERGY ENDS
UP GOING NORTH OF US WILL JUST HAVE A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS.  A
TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW.  IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND THE EAST. ONE BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS REDUCED VSBYS TO 1-2 MILES MIDDAY. VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO 4-6 MILES BRIEFLY. CIGS AND VSBYS MVFR NORTH OF THE
MASS PIKE AND TREND TO IFR/LIFR SOUTH OF THE PIKE AFTER 21Z.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM WITH SNOWFALL RATES REACHING 2-4 INCHES PER
HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS. STRONG SURFACE WINDS GUSTING 30-35 KNOTS IN THE CT
VALLEY AND 50-60 KNOTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WINDS AT 2000 FEET
WILL REACH 70-80 KNOTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
ISLANDS...LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT AND/OR FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY
FRI.  DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR BOTH
 TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ***

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH THE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ALONG THE
MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HAVE CONVERTED THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TO A WARNING. HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND
6 AM AND AGAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN
BOSTON HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM AND 5 PM.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...STILL ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE
TO BE 3 TO 3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING. THE ACTUAL PEAK STORM TIDE
COULD BE 15 TO 30 MINUTES AFTER THE SCHEDULED HIGH TIDE IN SOME
LOCATIONS DUE TO INCREASING SURGE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET
JUST OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SEAS WILL
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IN TYPICALLY
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY BUT NOT LIMITED TO
HULL...SCITUATE...AND MARSHFIELD. NE SURFACE WINDS ANTICIPATED TO
BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY TUESDAY
AM HIGH TIDE...PERHAPS EVEN GUSTING TO BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT OFF
ALONG THE CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET COAST. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS...WAVE RUNUP
AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR
MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER
BEACHES. WE ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE EROSION POTENTIAL
FOR EAST FACING SHORELINES ALONG PLUM ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM
AND NANTUCKET.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD
BE STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE STILL
EXPECTED FOR THE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BESIDES
CONTINUING CONCERNS REGARDING EROSION ALONG PLUM
ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET...SEVERE EROSION IS
LIKELY TO BE ALSO A CONCERN ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD FROM
SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WINDS WILL SHIFTED TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BY THAT TIME.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THE EXACT TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS /GUSTS TO 70 KT POSSIBLE!/ AND SURGE...WHICH APPEAR TO OCCUR
AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE LATE TUE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. GIVEN THE
TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW TIDE AND HIGH TIDE IS ONLY 6 HRS THERE
ISN/T MUCH MARGIN FOR ERROR HERE. IF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE
COINCIDE WITH ONE OF THESE HIGH TIDES...THEN MORE AREAS WOULD BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1256 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING.
DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...

HERE WE GO.

TOP-DOWN MOISTENING APPARENT BETWEEN 0Z AND 12Z CHATHAM SOUNDING
WITH SOME DRY-AIR LINGERING AROUND H85. MUCH DRIER N PER PORTLAND
MAINE SOUNDING WITH EXTREMELY LOW PWATS. IT IS THE COMBINATION OF
THERMAL-PACKING / AIRMASS ALONG WHICH WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS THAT
WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE W-E F-GEN FORCING ALONG THE DEVELOPING
WARM-FRONT AS ACTIVITY ALOFT NEGATIVELY TROUGHS LENDING TO
INTENSIFICATION OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ENHANCED
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. CHECK OUT THE H85-5
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES OUT OF THE S. H925 WINDS OUT OF THE E...
PERHAPS AIDING IN MOISTENING OF LOW-LEVELS AND ADDING A DEGREE OF
OCEAN-EFFECT FETCH TO THE DISCERNED BANDING. WITHIN THE E-W SNOW
BANDING PRESENTLY IMPACTING THE S-COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF NEW
ENGLAND...VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO A MILE ON AVERAGE. SNOW SHOULD
ACCUMULATE IMMEDIATELY AS TEMPERATURES RANGE AROUND THE UPPER-
TEENS TO LOW-20S AND THE GROUND IS EXCEPTIONALLY COLD.

ALSO SEEING A COASTAL FRONT SETUP SW-NE OFFSHORE OF THE IMMEDIATE
E-MA COASTLINE AND THROUGH THE CAPE-COD CANAL. THE CONVERGENCE OF
WINDS AND DECENT MOISTURE FETCH IS LENDING TO SOME LIGHT SNOWS
OVER THE S-BOSTON-METRO INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY. EXPECTING ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE ANTICIPATED DEEPENING OF LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC.

IMPORTANT: AS ALLUDED TO BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WITH
INCREASING WINDS YIELDS AN INCREASING FETCH. ENHANCEMENT OF
OCEAN-EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS E-MA POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE EVENING
COMMUTE. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES AND SUBSEQUENT REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...COULD BE IMPACTS TO
EVENING BOSTON-METRO AREA COMMUTE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THAT
CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

MODEST AND COLD HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS QC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. WITH DRIER AND COLDER AIR GRADUALLY PULLING N. HOWEVER...IT
IS THANKS TO THIS BLOCK...AND THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE THAN THERE
WAS WITH THE WEEKEND STORM...THAT WILL ALLOW LOW PRES...NEWLY
DEVELOPING OFF THE VA/NC COASTLINE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND SLOW AS
IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*** POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM RAMPS UP TONIGHT ***

* BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A HISTORICAL BLIZZARD IMPACTING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN THERE ARE NOT SOME MESOSCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE APPROACHES. AT
ISSUE AT THIS POINT...ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE FINAL LOW PRES DEPTH
PRIOR TO THE OCCLUSION PROCESS RANGING FROM 978 HPA ON THE NAM/CMC
TO 984 ON THE GFS. AT ODDS ALSO...IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO
DISTINCT BANDED SNOW FEATURES...THE FIRST...A LONG AND SIGNIFICANT
DEFORMATION/F-GEN BAND STRETCHING FROM COASTAL MAIN INTO INTERIOR
SRN NEW ENGLAND...THE TIP OF WHICH COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE
CT VALLEY TO METRO-WEST AND THE MERRIMACK VALLEY. AVAILABLE WRF
OUTPUTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HERE...WITH THE NMM FURTHER W WITH
THE HEAVIER BANDING...WHILE THE ARW IS SUGGESTING THE E. THE OTHER
AREA WILL LIKELY BE FORM CENTRAL RI THROUGH ABOUT THE S SHORE/BOS
METRO OF MASS AS A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS AND WAVERS INLAND. SO IT
IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE TWO BULLSEYES OF SNOW
TOTALS TO WATCH...WHERE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO EXCEED 2
FT. FINALLY...THIS BANDING LOCATION WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON
FINAL TRACK...WHICH ARE STILL IN SOME MESO-SCALE DISPUTE WITH THE
GFS REMAINING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
WHILE THE ECWMF/NAM ARE JUST INSIDE AND MUCH SLOWER...STALLING THE
LOW PRES ONLY ABOUT 50 NM SE OF ACK. THEREFORE...THE BANDING AND
AXIS OF 2.5-3.0 INCH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO WAVER A
BIT...AND WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED AS THE EVENT IS UNFOLDING. WILL
TRY TO SHOW THIS TWO-BULLSEYE SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT WITH THIS
UPDATE...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE HIGH IMPACT STORM ACROSS ALL
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHOLESALE CHANGES WILL NOTE BE MADE.

DETAILS/IMPACTS...

PRECIP TYPE...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCE OF A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
BRIEFLY ESPECIALLY FOR ACK...WITH THE H92 0C LINE INCHING CLOSE
/BUT STAYING MAINLY S WITH THE 00Z RUNS/. NAM IS COLDEST WHILE
ECMWF REMAINS THE COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. GIVEN THE
SLIGHT COOLING SHIFT OF RECENT RUNS AND EXAMINING BUFKIT PROFILES
AND BASED ON IMPACT POTENTIAL...WILL BE UPGRADING ACK TO A WINTER
STORM WATCH THIS THIS UPDATE...AS INITIAL SNOW...FOLLOWED BY BACK
END AFTER THE POTENTIAL CHANGEOVER...COULD STILL EXCEED WARNING
CRITERIA.

TOTAL SNOWFALL/BLIZZARD...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE..WE ARE ALREADY NOTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
THE N AND S SHORES /BOS METRO ALSO/ AROUND THE TIME OF AFTERNOON
RUSH. GIVEN THE STORM PREP...IT/S POSSIBLE MORE COULD BE ON THE
ROAD. THEREFORE...MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME MODEST ACCUMULATIONS
BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVES UP FROM THE SW BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z. BY 00Z IT SHOULD BE SNOWING...ALTHOUGH LIGHTLY TO START
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY TOTALS LIKELY
FALLING BELOW AN INCH OR TWO.

AS STATED THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO BANDING LOCATIONS...ONE
FROM TYPICAL MID-LVL DEFORMATION AND NEGATIVE EPV...WITH THE OTHER
CLOSER TO THE SFC INVOF OF THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS RI-SE MA OR
NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WHILE NAILING THESE DOWN IS DIFFICULT
ALMOST 24 HOURS OUT...MESOSCALE MODELS DO AT THE VERY LEAST
INDICATE THAT WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS...DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR A MAXIMUM AND WITH BANDS OF VERY NEGATIVE EPV...2-3
IN/HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS ARE LIKELY
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING WELL INTO THE DAY ON TUE
AS THESE BANDS SLOWLY PIVOT AND BEGIN A SLOW SHIFT TO THE E. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT...THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT A FOOT IN 6 HOURS OR EVEN LESS.

THEREFORE...FEEL THE MENTION OF 2+ FT OF TOTAL SNOWFALL ACROSS
INTERIOR TO E MA/RI AND EVEN NRN CT IS POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW
SPOTS APPROACHING 3 FT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. REGARDING THE
BLIZZARDS...BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES STILL SUPPORT WINDS NEAR BLIZZ
CRITERIA ALONG WITH THIS POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS WITHIN THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNINGS...SO NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE CHANCE FOR LOWER SN RATIOS NEARER TO THE COASTAL FRONT
LOCATIONS...COLOCATED WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PORTIONS OF SE MA /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST/ FOR THE HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES. HIGHER RATIOS FURTHER INLAND
/COLDER AIR/ ARE EXPECTED.

IT APPEARS OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY DELAY THE END TIME
ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE S SHORE...SE MA AND E RI LATE TUE
INTO WED...WHICH MAY SNOW UNTIL AFTER NOON ON WED. HOWEVER...BY
TUE NIGHT...EXPECT SLOWLY DIMINISHING SNOWFALL RATES FROM W TO E.

WINDS...
GFS HAS BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE LLJ...NOW SUPPORTING 65 KT AT
H92 FROM SRN RI THROUGH BOS AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...NAM/ECMWF
CONTINUE LEAN CLOSER TO 70-80 KT. BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF THIS MOMENTUM BEING MIXED ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COASTLINES. THEREFORE...CAN STILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING HURRICANE VELOCITY NEAR THE SHORE...PARTICULARLY THE
OUTER ARM OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET ALTHOUGH THIS TAPERS
INLAND...STILL COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS 50-60 MPH AS FAR INLAND
AS RI AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WHERE THIS
COINCIDES WITH LOWER RATIO /MORE WATER LADEN/ SNOW...COULD PRODUCE
MORE TREE DAMAGE AND THEREFORE POTENTIALLY MORE POWER OUTAGES.

COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR MORE ON THIS...PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END WED MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WED NIGHT AND WITH DEEP SNOW PACK IN
PLACE/DIMINISHING WIND SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
FRI.  THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.  IF THE ENERGY ENDS
UP GOING NORTH OF US WILL JUST HAVE A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS.  A
TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW.  IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND THE EAST. ONE BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS REDUCED VSBYS TO 1-2 MILES MIDDAY. VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO 4-6 MILES BRIEFLY. CIGS AND VSBYS MVFR NORTH OF THE
MASS PIKE AND TREND TO IFR/LIFR SOUTH OF THE PIKE AFTER 21Z.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM WITH SNOWFALL RATES REACHING 2-4 INCHES PER
HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS. STRONG SURFACE WINDS GUSTING 30-35 KNOTS IN THE CT
VALLEY AND 50-60 KNOTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WINDS AT 2000 FEET
WILL REACH 70-80 KNOTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
ISLANDS...LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT AND/OR FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY
FRI.  DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR BOTH
 TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ***

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH THE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ALONG THE
MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HAVE CONVERTED THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TO A WARNING. HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND
6 AM AND AGAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN
BOSTON HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM AND 5 PM.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...STILL ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE
TO BE 3 TO 3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING. THE ACTUAL PEAK STORM TIDE
COULD BE 15 TO 30 MINUTES AFTER THE SCHEDULED HIGH TIDE IN SOME
LOCATIONS DUE TO INCREASING SURGE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET
JUST OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SEAS WILL
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IN TYPICALLY
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY BUT NOT LIMITED TO
HULL...SCITUATE...AND MARSHFIELD. NE SURFACE WINDS ANTICIPATED TO
BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY TUESDAY
AM HIGH TIDE...PERHAPS EVEN GUSTING TO BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT OFF
ALONG THE CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET COAST. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS...WAVE RUNUP
AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR
MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER
BEACHES. WE ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE EROSION POTENTIAL
FOR EAST FACING SHORELINES ALONG PLUM ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM
AND NANTUCKET.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD
BE STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE STILL
EXPECTED FOR THE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BESIDES
CONTINUING CONCERNS REGARDING EROSION ALONG PLUM
ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET...SEVERE EROSION IS
LIKELY TO BE ALSO A CONCERN ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD FROM
SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WINDS WILL SHIFTED TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BY THAT TIME.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THE EXACT TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS /GUSTS TO 70 KT POSSIBLE!/ AND SURGE...WHICH APPEAR TO OCCUR
AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE LATE TUE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. GIVEN THE
TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW TIDE AND HIGH TIDE IS ONLY 6 HRS THERE
ISN/T MUCH MARGIN FOR ERROR HERE. IF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE
COINCIDE WITH ONE OF THESE HIGH TIDES...THEN MORE AREAS WOULD BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1256 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING.
DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...

HERE WE GO.

TOP-DOWN MOISTENING APPARENT BETWEEN 0Z AND 12Z CHATHAM SOUNDING
WITH SOME DRY-AIR LINGERING AROUND H85. MUCH DRIER N PER PORTLAND
MAINE SOUNDING WITH EXTREMELY LOW PWATS. IT IS THE COMBINATION OF
THERMAL-PACKING / AIRMASS ALONG WHICH WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS THAT
WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE W-E F-GEN FORCING ALONG THE DEVELOPING
WARM-FRONT AS ACTIVITY ALOFT NEGATIVELY TROUGHS LENDING TO
INTENSIFICATION OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ENHANCED
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. CHECK OUT THE H85-5
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES OUT OF THE S. H925 WINDS OUT OF THE E...
PERHAPS AIDING IN MOISTENING OF LOW-LEVELS AND ADDING A DEGREE OF
OCEAN-EFFECT FETCH TO THE DISCERNED BANDING. WITHIN THE E-W SNOW
BANDING PRESENTLY IMPACTING THE S-COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF NEW
ENGLAND...VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO A MILE ON AVERAGE. SNOW SHOULD
ACCUMULATE IMMEDIATELY AS TEMPERATURES RANGE AROUND THE UPPER-
TEENS TO LOW-20S AND THE GROUND IS EXCEPTIONALLY COLD.

ALSO SEEING A COASTAL FRONT SETUP SW-NE OFFSHORE OF THE IMMEDIATE
E-MA COASTLINE AND THROUGH THE CAPE-COD CANAL. THE CONVERGENCE OF
WINDS AND DECENT MOISTURE FETCH IS LENDING TO SOME LIGHT SNOWS
OVER THE S-BOSTON-METRO INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY. EXPECTING ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE ANTICIPATED DEEPENING OF LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC.

IMPORTANT: AS ALLUDED TO BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WITH
INCREASING WINDS YIELDS AN INCREASING FETCH. ENHANCEMENT OF
OCEAN-EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS E-MA POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE EVENING
COMMUTE. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES AND SUBSEQUENT REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...COULD BE IMPACTS TO
EVENING BOSTON-METRO AREA COMMUTE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THAT
CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

MODEST AND COLD HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS QC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. WITH DRIER AND COLDER AIR GRADUALLY PULLING N. HOWEVER...IT
IS THANKS TO THIS BLOCK...AND THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE THAN THERE
WAS WITH THE WEEKEND STORM...THAT WILL ALLOW LOW PRES...NEWLY
DEVELOPING OFF THE VA/NC COASTLINE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND SLOW AS
IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*** POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM RAMPS UP TONIGHT ***

* BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A HISTORICAL BLIZZARD IMPACTING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN THERE ARE NOT SOME MESOSCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE APPROACHES. AT
ISSUE AT THIS POINT...ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE FINAL LOW PRES DEPTH
PRIOR TO THE OCCLUSION PROCESS RANGING FROM 978 HPA ON THE NAM/CMC
TO 984 ON THE GFS. AT ODDS ALSO...IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO
DISTINCT BANDED SNOW FEATURES...THE FIRST...A LONG AND SIGNIFICANT
DEFORMATION/F-GEN BAND STRETCHING FROM COASTAL MAIN INTO INTERIOR
SRN NEW ENGLAND...THE TIP OF WHICH COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE
CT VALLEY TO METRO-WEST AND THE MERRIMACK VALLEY. AVAILABLE WRF
OUTPUTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HERE...WITH THE NMM FURTHER W WITH
THE HEAVIER BANDING...WHILE THE ARW IS SUGGESTING THE E. THE OTHER
AREA WILL LIKELY BE FORM CENTRAL RI THROUGH ABOUT THE S SHORE/BOS
METRO OF MASS AS A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS AND WAVERS INLAND. SO IT
IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE TWO BULLSEYES OF SNOW
TOTALS TO WATCH...WHERE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO EXCEED 2
FT. FINALLY...THIS BANDING LOCATION WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON
FINAL TRACK...WHICH ARE STILL IN SOME MESO-SCALE DISPUTE WITH THE
GFS REMAINING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
WHILE THE ECWMF/NAM ARE JUST INSIDE AND MUCH SLOWER...STALLING THE
LOW PRES ONLY ABOUT 50 NM SE OF ACK. THEREFORE...THE BANDING AND
AXIS OF 2.5-3.0 INCH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO WAVER A
BIT...AND WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED AS THE EVENT IS UNFOLDING. WILL
TRY TO SHOW THIS TWO-BULLSEYE SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT WITH THIS
UPDATE...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE HIGH IMPACT STORM ACROSS ALL
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHOLESALE CHANGES WILL NOTE BE MADE.

DETAILS/IMPACTS...

PRECIP TYPE...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCE OF A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
BRIEFLY ESPECIALLY FOR ACK...WITH THE H92 0C LINE INCHING CLOSE
/BUT STAYING MAINLY S WITH THE 00Z RUNS/. NAM IS COLDEST WHILE
ECMWF REMAINS THE COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. GIVEN THE
SLIGHT COOLING SHIFT OF RECENT RUNS AND EXAMINING BUFKIT PROFILES
AND BASED ON IMPACT POTENTIAL...WILL BE UPGRADING ACK TO A WINTER
STORM WATCH THIS THIS UPDATE...AS INITIAL SNOW...FOLLOWED BY BACK
END AFTER THE POTENTIAL CHANGEOVER...COULD STILL EXCEED WARNING
CRITERIA.

TOTAL SNOWFALL/BLIZZARD...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE..WE ARE ALREADY NOTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
THE N AND S SHORES /BOS METRO ALSO/ AROUND THE TIME OF AFTERNOON
RUSH. GIVEN THE STORM PREP...IT/S POSSIBLE MORE COULD BE ON THE
ROAD. THEREFORE...MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME MODEST ACCUMULATIONS
BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVES UP FROM THE SW BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z. BY 00Z IT SHOULD BE SNOWING...ALTHOUGH LIGHTLY TO START
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY TOTALS LIKELY
FALLING BELOW AN INCH OR TWO.

AS STATED THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO BANDING LOCATIONS...ONE
FROM TYPICAL MID-LVL DEFORMATION AND NEGATIVE EPV...WITH THE OTHER
CLOSER TO THE SFC INVOF OF THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS RI-SE MA OR
NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WHILE NAILING THESE DOWN IS DIFFICULT
ALMOST 24 HOURS OUT...MESOSCALE MODELS DO AT THE VERY LEAST
INDICATE THAT WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS...DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR A MAXIMUM AND WITH BANDS OF VERY NEGATIVE EPV...2-3
IN/HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS ARE LIKELY
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING WELL INTO THE DAY ON TUE
AS THESE BANDS SLOWLY PIVOT AND BEGIN A SLOW SHIFT TO THE E. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT...THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT A FOOT IN 6 HOURS OR EVEN LESS.

THEREFORE...FEEL THE MENTION OF 2+ FT OF TOTAL SNOWFALL ACROSS
INTERIOR TO E MA/RI AND EVEN NRN CT IS POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW
SPOTS APPROACHING 3 FT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. REGARDING THE
BLIZZARDS...BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES STILL SUPPORT WINDS NEAR BLIZZ
CRITERIA ALONG WITH THIS POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS WITHIN THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNINGS...SO NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE CHANCE FOR LOWER SN RATIOS NEARER TO THE COASTAL FRONT
LOCATIONS...COLOCATED WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PORTIONS OF SE MA /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST/ FOR THE HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES. HIGHER RATIOS FURTHER INLAND
/COLDER AIR/ ARE EXPECTED.

IT APPEARS OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY DELAY THE END TIME
ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE S SHORE...SE MA AND E RI LATE TUE
INTO WED...WHICH MAY SNOW UNTIL AFTER NOON ON WED. HOWEVER...BY
TUE NIGHT...EXPECT SLOWLY DIMINISHING SNOWFALL RATES FROM W TO E.

WINDS...
GFS HAS BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE LLJ...NOW SUPPORTING 65 KT AT
H92 FROM SRN RI THROUGH BOS AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...NAM/ECMWF
CONTINUE LEAN CLOSER TO 70-80 KT. BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF THIS MOMENTUM BEING MIXED ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COASTLINES. THEREFORE...CAN STILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING HURRICANE VELOCITY NEAR THE SHORE...PARTICULARLY THE
OUTER ARM OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET ALTHOUGH THIS TAPERS
INLAND...STILL COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS 50-60 MPH AS FAR INLAND
AS RI AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WHERE THIS
COINCIDES WITH LOWER RATIO /MORE WATER LADEN/ SNOW...COULD PRODUCE
MORE TREE DAMAGE AND THEREFORE POTENTIALLY MORE POWER OUTAGES.

COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR MORE ON THIS...PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END WED MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WED NIGHT AND WITH DEEP SNOW PACK IN
PLACE/DIMINISHING WIND SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
FRI.  THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.  IF THE ENERGY ENDS
UP GOING NORTH OF US WILL JUST HAVE A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS.  A
TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW.  IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND THE EAST. ONE BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS REDUCED VSBYS TO 1-2 MILES MIDDAY. VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO 4-6 MILES BRIEFLY. CIGS AND VSBYS MVFR NORTH OF THE
MASS PIKE AND TREND TO IFR/LIFR SOUTH OF THE PIKE AFTER 21Z.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM WITH SNOWFALL RATES REACHING 2-4 INCHES PER
HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS. STRONG SURFACE WINDS GUSTING 30-35 KNOTS IN THE CT
VALLEY AND 50-60 KNOTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WINDS AT 2000 FEET
WILL REACH 70-80 KNOTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
ISLANDS...LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT AND/OR FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY
FRI.  DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR BOTH
 TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ***

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH THE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ALONG THE
MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HAVE CONVERTED THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TO A WARNING. HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND
6 AM AND AGAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN
BOSTON HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM AND 5 PM.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...STILL ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE
TO BE 3 TO 3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING. THE ACTUAL PEAK STORM TIDE
COULD BE 15 TO 30 MINUTES AFTER THE SCHEDULED HIGH TIDE IN SOME
LOCATIONS DUE TO INCREASING SURGE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET
JUST OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SEAS WILL
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IN TYPICALLY
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY BUT NOT LIMITED TO
HULL...SCITUATE...AND MARSHFIELD. NE SURFACE WINDS ANTICIPATED TO
BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY TUESDAY
AM HIGH TIDE...PERHAPS EVEN GUSTING TO BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT OFF
ALONG THE CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET COAST. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS...WAVE RUNUP
AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR
MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER
BEACHES. WE ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE EROSION POTENTIAL
FOR EAST FACING SHORELINES ALONG PLUM ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM
AND NANTUCKET.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD
BE STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE STILL
EXPECTED FOR THE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BESIDES
CONTINUING CONCERNS REGARDING EROSION ALONG PLUM
ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET...SEVERE EROSION IS
LIKELY TO BE ALSO A CONCERN ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD FROM
SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WINDS WILL SHIFTED TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BY THAT TIME.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THE EXACT TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS /GUSTS TO 70 KT POSSIBLE!/ AND SURGE...WHICH APPEAR TO OCCUR
AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE LATE TUE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. GIVEN THE
TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW TIDE AND HIGH TIDE IS ONLY 6 HRS THERE
ISN/T MUCH MARGIN FOR ERROR HERE. IF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE
COINCIDE WITH ONE OF THESE HIGH TIDES...THEN MORE AREAS WOULD BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1256 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING.
DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...

HERE WE GO.

TOP-DOWN MOISTENING APPARENT BETWEEN 0Z AND 12Z CHATHAM SOUNDING
WITH SOME DRY-AIR LINGERING AROUND H85. MUCH DRIER N PER PORTLAND
MAINE SOUNDING WITH EXTREMELY LOW PWATS. IT IS THE COMBINATION OF
THERMAL-PACKING / AIRMASS ALONG WHICH WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS THAT
WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE W-E F-GEN FORCING ALONG THE DEVELOPING
WARM-FRONT AS ACTIVITY ALOFT NEGATIVELY TROUGHS LENDING TO
INTENSIFICATION OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ENHANCED
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. CHECK OUT THE H85-5
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES OUT OF THE S. H925 WINDS OUT OF THE E...
PERHAPS AIDING IN MOISTENING OF LOW-LEVELS AND ADDING A DEGREE OF
OCEAN-EFFECT FETCH TO THE DISCERNED BANDING. WITHIN THE E-W SNOW
BANDING PRESENTLY IMPACTING THE S-COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF NEW
ENGLAND...VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO A MILE ON AVERAGE. SNOW SHOULD
ACCUMULATE IMMEDIATELY AS TEMPERATURES RANGE AROUND THE UPPER-
TEENS TO LOW-20S AND THE GROUND IS EXCEPTIONALLY COLD.

ALSO SEEING A COASTAL FRONT SETUP SW-NE OFFSHORE OF THE IMMEDIATE
E-MA COASTLINE AND THROUGH THE CAPE-COD CANAL. THE CONVERGENCE OF
WINDS AND DECENT MOISTURE FETCH IS LENDING TO SOME LIGHT SNOWS
OVER THE S-BOSTON-METRO INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY. EXPECTING ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE ANTICIPATED DEEPENING OF LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC.

IMPORTANT: AS ALLUDED TO BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WITH
INCREASING WINDS YIELDS AN INCREASING FETCH. ENHANCEMENT OF
OCEAN-EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS E-MA POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE EVENING
COMMUTE. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES AND SUBSEQUENT REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...COULD BE IMPACTS TO
EVENING BOSTON-METRO AREA COMMUTE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THAT
CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

MODEST AND COLD HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS QC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. WITH DRIER AND COLDER AIR GRADUALLY PULLING N. HOWEVER...IT
IS THANKS TO THIS BLOCK...AND THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE THAN THERE
WAS WITH THE WEEKEND STORM...THAT WILL ALLOW LOW PRES...NEWLY
DEVELOPING OFF THE VA/NC COASTLINE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND SLOW AS
IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*** POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM RAMPS UP TONIGHT ***

* BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A HISTORICAL BLIZZARD IMPACTING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN THERE ARE NOT SOME MESOSCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE APPROACHES. AT
ISSUE AT THIS POINT...ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE FINAL LOW PRES DEPTH
PRIOR TO THE OCCLUSION PROCESS RANGING FROM 978 HPA ON THE NAM/CMC
TO 984 ON THE GFS. AT ODDS ALSO...IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO
DISTINCT BANDED SNOW FEATURES...THE FIRST...A LONG AND SIGNIFICANT
DEFORMATION/F-GEN BAND STRETCHING FROM COASTAL MAIN INTO INTERIOR
SRN NEW ENGLAND...THE TIP OF WHICH COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE
CT VALLEY TO METRO-WEST AND THE MERRIMACK VALLEY. AVAILABLE WRF
OUTPUTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HERE...WITH THE NMM FURTHER W WITH
THE HEAVIER BANDING...WHILE THE ARW IS SUGGESTING THE E. THE OTHER
AREA WILL LIKELY BE FORM CENTRAL RI THROUGH ABOUT THE S SHORE/BOS
METRO OF MASS AS A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS AND WAVERS INLAND. SO IT
IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE TWO BULLSEYES OF SNOW
TOTALS TO WATCH...WHERE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO EXCEED 2
FT. FINALLY...THIS BANDING LOCATION WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON
FINAL TRACK...WHICH ARE STILL IN SOME MESO-SCALE DISPUTE WITH THE
GFS REMAINING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
WHILE THE ECWMF/NAM ARE JUST INSIDE AND MUCH SLOWER...STALLING THE
LOW PRES ONLY ABOUT 50 NM SE OF ACK. THEREFORE...THE BANDING AND
AXIS OF 2.5-3.0 INCH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO WAVER A
BIT...AND WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED AS THE EVENT IS UNFOLDING. WILL
TRY TO SHOW THIS TWO-BULLSEYE SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT WITH THIS
UPDATE...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE HIGH IMPACT STORM ACROSS ALL
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHOLESALE CHANGES WILL NOTE BE MADE.

DETAILS/IMPACTS...

PRECIP TYPE...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCE OF A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
BRIEFLY ESPECIALLY FOR ACK...WITH THE H92 0C LINE INCHING CLOSE
/BUT STAYING MAINLY S WITH THE 00Z RUNS/. NAM IS COLDEST WHILE
ECMWF REMAINS THE COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. GIVEN THE
SLIGHT COOLING SHIFT OF RECENT RUNS AND EXAMINING BUFKIT PROFILES
AND BASED ON IMPACT POTENTIAL...WILL BE UPGRADING ACK TO A WINTER
STORM WATCH THIS THIS UPDATE...AS INITIAL SNOW...FOLLOWED BY BACK
END AFTER THE POTENTIAL CHANGEOVER...COULD STILL EXCEED WARNING
CRITERIA.

TOTAL SNOWFALL/BLIZZARD...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE..WE ARE ALREADY NOTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
THE N AND S SHORES /BOS METRO ALSO/ AROUND THE TIME OF AFTERNOON
RUSH. GIVEN THE STORM PREP...IT/S POSSIBLE MORE COULD BE ON THE
ROAD. THEREFORE...MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME MODEST ACCUMULATIONS
BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVES UP FROM THE SW BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z. BY 00Z IT SHOULD BE SNOWING...ALTHOUGH LIGHTLY TO START
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY TOTALS LIKELY
FALLING BELOW AN INCH OR TWO.

AS STATED THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO BANDING LOCATIONS...ONE
FROM TYPICAL MID-LVL DEFORMATION AND NEGATIVE EPV...WITH THE OTHER
CLOSER TO THE SFC INVOF OF THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS RI-SE MA OR
NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WHILE NAILING THESE DOWN IS DIFFICULT
ALMOST 24 HOURS OUT...MESOSCALE MODELS DO AT THE VERY LEAST
INDICATE THAT WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS...DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR A MAXIMUM AND WITH BANDS OF VERY NEGATIVE EPV...2-3
IN/HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS ARE LIKELY
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING WELL INTO THE DAY ON TUE
AS THESE BANDS SLOWLY PIVOT AND BEGIN A SLOW SHIFT TO THE E. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT...THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT A FOOT IN 6 HOURS OR EVEN LESS.

THEREFORE...FEEL THE MENTION OF 2+ FT OF TOTAL SNOWFALL ACROSS
INTERIOR TO E MA/RI AND EVEN NRN CT IS POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW
SPOTS APPROACHING 3 FT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. REGARDING THE
BLIZZARDS...BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES STILL SUPPORT WINDS NEAR BLIZZ
CRITERIA ALONG WITH THIS POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS WITHIN THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNINGS...SO NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE CHANCE FOR LOWER SN RATIOS NEARER TO THE COASTAL FRONT
LOCATIONS...COLOCATED WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PORTIONS OF SE MA /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST/ FOR THE HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES. HIGHER RATIOS FURTHER INLAND
/COLDER AIR/ ARE EXPECTED.

IT APPEARS OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY DELAY THE END TIME
ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE S SHORE...SE MA AND E RI LATE TUE
INTO WED...WHICH MAY SNOW UNTIL AFTER NOON ON WED. HOWEVER...BY
TUE NIGHT...EXPECT SLOWLY DIMINISHING SNOWFALL RATES FROM W TO E.

WINDS...
GFS HAS BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE LLJ...NOW SUPPORTING 65 KT AT
H92 FROM SRN RI THROUGH BOS AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...NAM/ECMWF
CONTINUE LEAN CLOSER TO 70-80 KT. BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF THIS MOMENTUM BEING MIXED ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COASTLINES. THEREFORE...CAN STILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING HURRICANE VELOCITY NEAR THE SHORE...PARTICULARLY THE
OUTER ARM OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET ALTHOUGH THIS TAPERS
INLAND...STILL COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS 50-60 MPH AS FAR INLAND
AS RI AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WHERE THIS
COINCIDES WITH LOWER RATIO /MORE WATER LADEN/ SNOW...COULD PRODUCE
MORE TREE DAMAGE AND THEREFORE POTENTIALLY MORE POWER OUTAGES.

COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR MORE ON THIS...PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END WED MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WED NIGHT AND WITH DEEP SNOW PACK IN
PLACE/DIMINISHING WIND SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
FRI.  THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.  IF THE ENERGY ENDS
UP GOING NORTH OF US WILL JUST HAVE A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS.  A
TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW.  IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND THE EAST. ONE BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS REDUCED VSBYS TO 1-2 MILES MIDDAY. VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO 4-6 MILES BRIEFLY. CIGS AND VSBYS MVFR NORTH OF THE
MASS PIKE AND TREND TO IFR/LIFR SOUTH OF THE PIKE AFTER 21Z.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM WITH SNOWFALL RATES REACHING 2-4 INCHES PER
HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS. STRONG SURFACE WINDS GUSTING 30-35 KNOTS IN THE CT
VALLEY AND 50-60 KNOTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WINDS AT 2000 FEET
WILL REACH 70-80 KNOTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
ISLANDS...LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT AND/OR FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY
FRI.  DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR BOTH
 TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ***

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH THE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ALONG THE
MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HAVE CONVERTED THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TO A WARNING. HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND
6 AM AND AGAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN
BOSTON HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM AND 5 PM.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...STILL ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE
TO BE 3 TO 3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING. THE ACTUAL PEAK STORM TIDE
COULD BE 15 TO 30 MINUTES AFTER THE SCHEDULED HIGH TIDE IN SOME
LOCATIONS DUE TO INCREASING SURGE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET
JUST OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SEAS WILL
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IN TYPICALLY
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY BUT NOT LIMITED TO
HULL...SCITUATE...AND MARSHFIELD. NE SURFACE WINDS ANTICIPATED TO
BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY TUESDAY
AM HIGH TIDE...PERHAPS EVEN GUSTING TO BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT OFF
ALONG THE CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET COAST. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS...WAVE RUNUP
AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR
MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER
BEACHES. WE ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE EROSION POTENTIAL
FOR EAST FACING SHORELINES ALONG PLUM ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM
AND NANTUCKET.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD
BE STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE STILL
EXPECTED FOR THE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BESIDES
CONTINUING CONCERNS REGARDING EROSION ALONG PLUM
ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET...SEVERE EROSION IS
LIKELY TO BE ALSO A CONCERN ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD FROM
SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WINDS WILL SHIFTED TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BY THAT TIME.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THE EXACT TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS /GUSTS TO 70 KT POSSIBLE!/ AND SURGE...WHICH APPEAR TO OCCUR
AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE LATE TUE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. GIVEN THE
TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW TIDE AND HIGH TIDE IS ONLY 6 HRS THERE
ISN/T MUCH MARGIN FOR ERROR HERE. IF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE
COINCIDE WITH ONE OF THESE HIGH TIDES...THEN MORE AREAS WOULD BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261604
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1104 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING.
DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...

HERE WE GO.

TOP-DOWN MOISTENING APPARENT BETWEEN 0Z AND 12Z CHATHAM SOUNDING
WITH SOME DRY-AIR LINGERING AROUND H85. MUCH DRIER N PER PORTLAND
MAINE SOUNDING WITH EXTREMELY LOW PWATS. IT IS THE COMBINATION OF
THERMAL-PACKING / AIRMASS ALONG WHICH WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS THAT
WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE W-E F-GEN FORCING ALONG THE DEVELOPING
WARM-FRONT AS ACTIVITY ALOFT NEGATIVELY TROUGHS LENDING TO
INTENSIFICATION OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ENHANCED
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. CHECK OUT THE H85-5
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES OUT OF THE S. H925 WINDS OUT OF THE E...
PERHAPS AIDING IN MOISTENING OF LOW-LEVELS AND ADDING A DEGREE OF
OCEAN-EFFECT FETCH TO THE DISCERNED BANDING. WITHIN THE E-W SNOW
BANDING PRESENTLY IMPACTING THE S-COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF NEW
ENGLAND...VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO A MILE ON AVERAGE. SNOW SHOULD
ACCUMULATE IMMEDIATELY AS TEMPERATURES RANGE AROUND THE UPPER-
TEENS TO LOW-20S AND THE GROUND IS EXCEPTIONALLY COLD.

ALSO SEEING A COASTAL FRONT SETUP SW-NE OFFSHORE OF THE IMMEDIATE
E-MA COASTLINE AND THROUGH THE CAPE-COD CANAL. THE CONVERGENCE OF
WINDS AND DECENT MOISTURE FETCH IS LENDING TO SOME LIGHT SNOWS
OVER THE S-BOSTON-METRO INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY. EXPECTING ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE ANTICIPATED DEEPENING OF LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC.

IMPORTANT: AS ALLUDED TO BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WITH
INCREASING WINDS YIELDS AN INCREASING FETCH. ENHANCEMENT OF
OCEAN-EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS E-MA POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE EVENING
COMMUTE. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES AND SUBSEQUENT REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...COULD BE IMPACTS TO
EVENING BOSTON-METRO AREA COMMUTE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THAT
CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

MODEST AND COLD HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS QC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. WITH DRIER AND COLDER AIR GRADUALLY PULLING N. HOWEVER...IT
IS THANKS TO THIS BLOCK...AND THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE THAN THERE
WAS WITH THE WEEKEND STORM...THAT WILL ALLOW LOW PRES...NEWLY
DEVELOPING OFF THE VA/NC COASTLINE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND SLOW AS
IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*** POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM RAMPS UP TONIGHT ***

* BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A HISTORICAL BLIZZARD IMPACTING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN THERE ARE NOT SOME MESOSCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE APPROACHES. AT
ISSUE AT THIS POINT...ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE FINAL LOW PRES DEPTH
PRIOR TO THE OCCLUSION PROCESS RANGING FROM 978 HPA ON THE NAM/CMC
TO 984 ON THE GFS. AT ODDS ALSO...IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO
DISTINCT BANDED SNOW FEATURES...THE FIRST...A LONG AND SIGNIFICANT
DEFORMATION/F-GEN BAND STRETCHING FROM COASTAL MAIN INTO INTERIOR
SRN NEW ENGLAND...THE TIP OF WHICH COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE
CT VALLEY TO METRO-WEST AND THE MERRIMACK VALLEY. AVAILABLE WRF
OUTPUTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HERE...WITH THE NMM FURTHER W WITH
THE HEAVIER BANDING...WHILE THE ARW IS SUGGESTING THE E. THE OTHER
AREA WILL LIKELY BE FORM CENTRAL RI THROUGH ABOUT THE S SHORE/BOS
METRO OF MASS AS A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS AND WAVERS INLAND. SO IT
IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE TWO BULLSEYES OF SNOW
TOTALS TO WATCH...WHERE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO EXCEED 2
FT. FINALLY...THIS BANDING LOCATION WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON
FINAL TRACK...WHICH ARE STILL IN SOME MESO-SCALE DISPUTE WITH THE
GFS REMAINING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
WHILE THE ECWMF/NAM ARE JUST INSIDE AND MUCH SLOWER...STALLING THE
LOW PRES ONLY ABOUT 50 NM SE OF ACK. THEREFORE...THE BANDING AND
AXIS OF 2.5-3.0 INCH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO WAVER A
BIT...AND WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED AS THE EVENT IS UNFOLDING. WILL
TRY TO SHOW THIS TWO-BULLSEYE SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT WITH THIS
UPDATE...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE HIGH IMPACT STORM ACROSS ALL
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHOLESALE CHANGES WILL NOTE BE MADE.

DETAILS/IMPACTS...

PRECIP TYPE...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCE OF A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
BRIEFLY ESPECIALLY FOR ACK...WITH THE H92 0C LINE INCHING CLOSE
/BUT STAYING MAINLY S WITH THE 00Z RUNS/. NAM IS COLDEST WHILE
ECMWF REMAINS THE COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. GIVEN THE
SLIGHT COOLING SHIFT OF RECENT RUNS AND EXAMINING BUFKIT PROFILES
AND BASED ON IMPACT POTENTIAL...WILL BE UPGRADING ACK TO A WINTER
STORM WATCH THIS THIS UPDATE...AS INITIAL SNOW...FOLLOWED BY BACK
END AFTER THE POTENTIAL CHANGEOVER...COULD STILL EXCEED WARNING
CRITERIA.

TOTAL SNOWFALL/BLIZZARD...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE..WE ARE ALREADY NOTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
THE N AND S SHORES /BOS METRO ALSO/ AROUND THE TIME OF AFTERNOON
RUSH. GIVEN THE STORM PREP...IT/S POSSIBLE MORE COULD BE ON THE
ROAD. THEREFORE...MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME MODEST ACCUMULATIONS
BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVES UP FROM THE SW BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z. BY 00Z IT SHOULD BE SNOWING...ALTHOUGH LIGHTLY TO START
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY TOTALS LIKELY
FALLING BELOW AN INCH OR TWO.

AS STATED THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO BANDING LOCATIONS...ONE
FROM TYPICAL MID-LVL DEFORMATION AND NEGATIVE EPV...WITH THE OTHER
CLOSER TO THE SFC INVOF OF THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS RI-SE MA OR
NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WHILE NAILING THESE DOWN IS DIFFICULT
ALMOST 24 HOURS OUT...MESOSCALE MODELS DO AT THE VERY LEAST
INDICATE THAT WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS...DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR A MAXIMUM AND WITH BANDS OF VERY NEGATIVE EPV...2-3
IN/HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS ARE LIKELY
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING WELL INTO THE DAY ON TUE
AS THESE BANDS SLOWLY PIVOT AND BEGIN A SLOW SHIFT TO THE E. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT...THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT A FOOT IN 6 HOURS OR EVEN LESS.

THEREFORE...FEEL THE MENTION OF 2+ FT OF TOTAL SNOWFALL ACROSS
INTERIOR TO E MA/RI AND EVEN NRN CT IS POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW
SPOTS APPROACHING 3 FT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. REGARDING THE
BLIZZARDS...BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES STILL SUPPORT WINDS NEAR BLIZZ
CRITERIA ALONG WITH THIS POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS WITHIN THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNINGS...SO NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE CHANCE FOR LOWER SN RATIOS NEARER TO THE COASTAL FRONT
LOCATIONS...COLOCATED WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PORTIONS OF SE MA /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST/ FOR THE HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES. HIGHER RATIOS FURTHER INLAND
/COLDER AIR/ ARE EXPECTED.

IT APPEARS OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY DELAY THE END TIME
ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE S SHORE...SE MA AND E RI LATE TUE
INTO WED...WHICH MAY SNOW UNTIL AFTER NOON ON WED. HOWEVER...BY
TUE NIGHT...EXPECT SLOWLY DIMINISHING SNOWFALL RATES FROM W TO E.

WINDS...
GFS HAS BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE LLJ...NOW SUPPORTING 65 KT AT
H92 FROM SRN RI THROUGH BOS AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...NAM/ECMWF
CONTINUE LEAN CLOSER TO 70-80 KT. BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF THIS MOMENTUM BEING MIXED ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COASTLINES. THEREFORE...CAN STILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING HURRICANE VELOCITY NEAR THE SHORE...PARTICULARLY THE
OUTER ARM OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET ALTHOUGH THIS TAPERS
INLAND...STILL COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS 50-60 MPH AS FAR INLAND
AS RI AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WHERE THIS
COINCIDES WITH LOWER RATIO /MORE WATER LADEN/ SNOW...COULD PRODUCE
MORE TREE DAMAGE AND THEREFORE POTENTIALLY MORE POWER OUTAGES.

COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR MORE ON THIS...PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END WED MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WED NIGHT AND WITH DEEP SNOW PACK IN
PLACE/DIMINISHING WIND SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
FRI.  THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.  IF THE ENERGY ENDS
UP GOING NORTH OF US WILL JUST HAVE A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS.  A
TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW.  IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 21Z TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.  MVFR CIGS ALREADY DEVELOPING WITH COLD NORTHEAST WINDS
BLOWING OFF THE OCEAN.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...VFR
REMAINS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING...AT WHICH POINT
A SLOW DIP WITH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE S. SNOWS
MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT 18-21Z...BUT SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT EARLIER ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEGIN
TO DIP FROM MVFR TO VLIFR WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AIRPORTS REACHING
MINIMUMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING TUE. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
HEAVY-BLOWING SNOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AIRPORTS SEEING
2-3 INCH OR MORE PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...40-50 MPH INLAND AT TIMES...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 70-80 MPH WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. ASIDE FROM THIS...LLWS IS LIKELY AS WINDS AT 2KFT ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 70-80 KT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT AND/OR FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY
FRI.  DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR BOTH
 TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ***

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH THE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ALONG THE
MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HAVE CONVERTED THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TO A WARNING. HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND
6 AM AND AGAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN
BOSTON HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM AND 5 PM.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...STILL ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE
TO BE 3 TO 3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING. THE ACTUAL PEAK STORM TIDE
COULD BE 15 TO 30 MINUTES AFTER THE SCHEDULED HIGH TIDE IN SOME
LOCATIONS DUE TO INCREASING SURGE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET
JUST OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SEAS WILL
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IN TYPICALLY
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY BUT NOT LIMITED TO
HULL...SCITUATE...AND MARSHFIELD. NE SURFACE WINDS ANTICIPATED TO
BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY TUESDAY
AM HIGH TIDE...PERHAPS EVEN GUSTING TO BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT OFF
ALONG THE CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET COAST. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS...WAVE RUNUP
AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR
MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER
BEACHES. WE ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE EROSION POTENTIAL
FOR EAST FACING SHORELINES ALONG PLUM ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM
AND NANTUCKET.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD
BE STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE STILL
EXPECTED FOR THE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BESIDES
CONTINUING CONCERNS REGARDING EROSION ALONG PLUM
ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET...SEVERE EROSION IS
LIKELY TO BE ALSO A CONCERN ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD FROM
SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WINDS WILL SHIFTED TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BY THAT TIME.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THE EXACT TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS /GUSTS TO 70 KT POSSIBLE!/ AND SURGE...WHICH APPEAR TO OCCUR
AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE LATE TUE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. GIVEN THE
TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW TIDE AND HIGH TIDE IS ONLY 6 HRS THERE
ISN/T MUCH MARGIN FOR ERROR HERE. IF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE
COINCIDE WITH ONE OF THESE HIGH TIDES...THEN MORE AREAS WOULD BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261604
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1104 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING.
DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...

HERE WE GO.

TOP-DOWN MOISTENING APPARENT BETWEEN 0Z AND 12Z CHATHAM SOUNDING
WITH SOME DRY-AIR LINGERING AROUND H85. MUCH DRIER N PER PORTLAND
MAINE SOUNDING WITH EXTREMELY LOW PWATS. IT IS THE COMBINATION OF
THERMAL-PACKING / AIRMASS ALONG WHICH WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS THAT
WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE W-E F-GEN FORCING ALONG THE DEVELOPING
WARM-FRONT AS ACTIVITY ALOFT NEGATIVELY TROUGHS LENDING TO
INTENSIFICATION OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ENHANCED
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. CHECK OUT THE H85-5
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES OUT OF THE S. H925 WINDS OUT OF THE E...
PERHAPS AIDING IN MOISTENING OF LOW-LEVELS AND ADDING A DEGREE OF
OCEAN-EFFECT FETCH TO THE DISCERNED BANDING. WITHIN THE E-W SNOW
BANDING PRESENTLY IMPACTING THE S-COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF NEW
ENGLAND...VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO A MILE ON AVERAGE. SNOW SHOULD
ACCUMULATE IMMEDIATELY AS TEMPERATURES RANGE AROUND THE UPPER-
TEENS TO LOW-20S AND THE GROUND IS EXCEPTIONALLY COLD.

ALSO SEEING A COASTAL FRONT SETUP SW-NE OFFSHORE OF THE IMMEDIATE
E-MA COASTLINE AND THROUGH THE CAPE-COD CANAL. THE CONVERGENCE OF
WINDS AND DECENT MOISTURE FETCH IS LENDING TO SOME LIGHT SNOWS
OVER THE S-BOSTON-METRO INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY. EXPECTING ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE ANTICIPATED DEEPENING OF LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC.

IMPORTANT: AS ALLUDED TO BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WITH
INCREASING WINDS YIELDS AN INCREASING FETCH. ENHANCEMENT OF
OCEAN-EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS E-MA POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE EVENING
COMMUTE. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES AND SUBSEQUENT REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...COULD BE IMPACTS TO
EVENING BOSTON-METRO AREA COMMUTE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THAT
CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

MODEST AND COLD HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS QC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. WITH DRIER AND COLDER AIR GRADUALLY PULLING N. HOWEVER...IT
IS THANKS TO THIS BLOCK...AND THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE THAN THERE
WAS WITH THE WEEKEND STORM...THAT WILL ALLOW LOW PRES...NEWLY
DEVELOPING OFF THE VA/NC COASTLINE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND SLOW AS
IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*** POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM RAMPS UP TONIGHT ***

* BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A HISTORICAL BLIZZARD IMPACTING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN THERE ARE NOT SOME MESOSCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE APPROACHES. AT
ISSUE AT THIS POINT...ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE FINAL LOW PRES DEPTH
PRIOR TO THE OCCLUSION PROCESS RANGING FROM 978 HPA ON THE NAM/CMC
TO 984 ON THE GFS. AT ODDS ALSO...IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO
DISTINCT BANDED SNOW FEATURES...THE FIRST...A LONG AND SIGNIFICANT
DEFORMATION/F-GEN BAND STRETCHING FROM COASTAL MAIN INTO INTERIOR
SRN NEW ENGLAND...THE TIP OF WHICH COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE
CT VALLEY TO METRO-WEST AND THE MERRIMACK VALLEY. AVAILABLE WRF
OUTPUTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HERE...WITH THE NMM FURTHER W WITH
THE HEAVIER BANDING...WHILE THE ARW IS SUGGESTING THE E. THE OTHER
AREA WILL LIKELY BE FORM CENTRAL RI THROUGH ABOUT THE S SHORE/BOS
METRO OF MASS AS A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS AND WAVERS INLAND. SO IT
IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE TWO BULLSEYES OF SNOW
TOTALS TO WATCH...WHERE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO EXCEED 2
FT. FINALLY...THIS BANDING LOCATION WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON
FINAL TRACK...WHICH ARE STILL IN SOME MESO-SCALE DISPUTE WITH THE
GFS REMAINING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
WHILE THE ECWMF/NAM ARE JUST INSIDE AND MUCH SLOWER...STALLING THE
LOW PRES ONLY ABOUT 50 NM SE OF ACK. THEREFORE...THE BANDING AND
AXIS OF 2.5-3.0 INCH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO WAVER A
BIT...AND WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED AS THE EVENT IS UNFOLDING. WILL
TRY TO SHOW THIS TWO-BULLSEYE SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT WITH THIS
UPDATE...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE HIGH IMPACT STORM ACROSS ALL
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHOLESALE CHANGES WILL NOTE BE MADE.

DETAILS/IMPACTS...

PRECIP TYPE...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCE OF A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
BRIEFLY ESPECIALLY FOR ACK...WITH THE H92 0C LINE INCHING CLOSE
/BUT STAYING MAINLY S WITH THE 00Z RUNS/. NAM IS COLDEST WHILE
ECMWF REMAINS THE COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. GIVEN THE
SLIGHT COOLING SHIFT OF RECENT RUNS AND EXAMINING BUFKIT PROFILES
AND BASED ON IMPACT POTENTIAL...WILL BE UPGRADING ACK TO A WINTER
STORM WATCH THIS THIS UPDATE...AS INITIAL SNOW...FOLLOWED BY BACK
END AFTER THE POTENTIAL CHANGEOVER...COULD STILL EXCEED WARNING
CRITERIA.

TOTAL SNOWFALL/BLIZZARD...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE..WE ARE ALREADY NOTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
THE N AND S SHORES /BOS METRO ALSO/ AROUND THE TIME OF AFTERNOON
RUSH. GIVEN THE STORM PREP...IT/S POSSIBLE MORE COULD BE ON THE
ROAD. THEREFORE...MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME MODEST ACCUMULATIONS
BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVES UP FROM THE SW BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z. BY 00Z IT SHOULD BE SNOWING...ALTHOUGH LIGHTLY TO START
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY TOTALS LIKELY
FALLING BELOW AN INCH OR TWO.

AS STATED THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO BANDING LOCATIONS...ONE
FROM TYPICAL MID-LVL DEFORMATION AND NEGATIVE EPV...WITH THE OTHER
CLOSER TO THE SFC INVOF OF THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS RI-SE MA OR
NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WHILE NAILING THESE DOWN IS DIFFICULT
ALMOST 24 HOURS OUT...MESOSCALE MODELS DO AT THE VERY LEAST
INDICATE THAT WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS...DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR A MAXIMUM AND WITH BANDS OF VERY NEGATIVE EPV...2-3
IN/HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS ARE LIKELY
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING WELL INTO THE DAY ON TUE
AS THESE BANDS SLOWLY PIVOT AND BEGIN A SLOW SHIFT TO THE E. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT...THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT A FOOT IN 6 HOURS OR EVEN LESS.

THEREFORE...FEEL THE MENTION OF 2+ FT OF TOTAL SNOWFALL ACROSS
INTERIOR TO E MA/RI AND EVEN NRN CT IS POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW
SPOTS APPROACHING 3 FT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. REGARDING THE
BLIZZARDS...BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES STILL SUPPORT WINDS NEAR BLIZZ
CRITERIA ALONG WITH THIS POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS WITHIN THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNINGS...SO NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE CHANCE FOR LOWER SN RATIOS NEARER TO THE COASTAL FRONT
LOCATIONS...COLOCATED WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PORTIONS OF SE MA /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST/ FOR THE HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES. HIGHER RATIOS FURTHER INLAND
/COLDER AIR/ ARE EXPECTED.

IT APPEARS OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY DELAY THE END TIME
ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE S SHORE...SE MA AND E RI LATE TUE
INTO WED...WHICH MAY SNOW UNTIL AFTER NOON ON WED. HOWEVER...BY
TUE NIGHT...EXPECT SLOWLY DIMINISHING SNOWFALL RATES FROM W TO E.

WINDS...
GFS HAS BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE LLJ...NOW SUPPORTING 65 KT AT
H92 FROM SRN RI THROUGH BOS AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...NAM/ECMWF
CONTINUE LEAN CLOSER TO 70-80 KT. BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF THIS MOMENTUM BEING MIXED ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COASTLINES. THEREFORE...CAN STILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING HURRICANE VELOCITY NEAR THE SHORE...PARTICULARLY THE
OUTER ARM OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET ALTHOUGH THIS TAPERS
INLAND...STILL COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS 50-60 MPH AS FAR INLAND
AS RI AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WHERE THIS
COINCIDES WITH LOWER RATIO /MORE WATER LADEN/ SNOW...COULD PRODUCE
MORE TREE DAMAGE AND THEREFORE POTENTIALLY MORE POWER OUTAGES.

COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR MORE ON THIS...PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END WED MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WED NIGHT AND WITH DEEP SNOW PACK IN
PLACE/DIMINISHING WIND SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
FRI.  THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.  IF THE ENERGY ENDS
UP GOING NORTH OF US WILL JUST HAVE A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS.  A
TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW.  IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 21Z TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.  MVFR CIGS ALREADY DEVELOPING WITH COLD NORTHEAST WINDS
BLOWING OFF THE OCEAN.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...VFR
REMAINS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING...AT WHICH POINT
A SLOW DIP WITH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE S. SNOWS
MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT 18-21Z...BUT SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT EARLIER ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEGIN
TO DIP FROM MVFR TO VLIFR WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AIRPORTS REACHING
MINIMUMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING TUE. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
HEAVY-BLOWING SNOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AIRPORTS SEEING
2-3 INCH OR MORE PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...40-50 MPH INLAND AT TIMES...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 70-80 MPH WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. ASIDE FROM THIS...LLWS IS LIKELY AS WINDS AT 2KFT ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 70-80 KT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT AND/OR FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY
FRI.  DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR BOTH
 TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ***

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH THE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ALONG THE
MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HAVE CONVERTED THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TO A WARNING. HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND
6 AM AND AGAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN
BOSTON HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM AND 5 PM.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...STILL ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE
TO BE 3 TO 3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING. THE ACTUAL PEAK STORM TIDE
COULD BE 15 TO 30 MINUTES AFTER THE SCHEDULED HIGH TIDE IN SOME
LOCATIONS DUE TO INCREASING SURGE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET
JUST OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SEAS WILL
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IN TYPICALLY
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY BUT NOT LIMITED TO
HULL...SCITUATE...AND MARSHFIELD. NE SURFACE WINDS ANTICIPATED TO
BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY TUESDAY
AM HIGH TIDE...PERHAPS EVEN GUSTING TO BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT OFF
ALONG THE CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET COAST. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS...WAVE RUNUP
AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR
MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER
BEACHES. WE ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE EROSION POTENTIAL
FOR EAST FACING SHORELINES ALONG PLUM ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM
AND NANTUCKET.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD
BE STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE STILL
EXPECTED FOR THE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BESIDES
CONTINUING CONCERNS REGARDING EROSION ALONG PLUM
ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET...SEVERE EROSION IS
LIKELY TO BE ALSO A CONCERN ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD FROM
SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WINDS WILL SHIFTED TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BY THAT TIME.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THE EXACT TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS /GUSTS TO 70 KT POSSIBLE!/ AND SURGE...WHICH APPEAR TO OCCUR
AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE LATE TUE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. GIVEN THE
TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW TIDE AND HIGH TIDE IS ONLY 6 HRS THERE
ISN/T MUCH MARGIN FOR ERROR HERE. IF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE
COINCIDE WITH ONE OF THESE HIGH TIDES...THEN MORE AREAS WOULD BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261604
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1104 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING.
DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...

HERE WE GO.

TOP-DOWN MOISTENING APPARENT BETWEEN 0Z AND 12Z CHATHAM SOUNDING
WITH SOME DRY-AIR LINGERING AROUND H85. MUCH DRIER N PER PORTLAND
MAINE SOUNDING WITH EXTREMELY LOW PWATS. IT IS THE COMBINATION OF
THERMAL-PACKING / AIRMASS ALONG WHICH WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS THAT
WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE W-E F-GEN FORCING ALONG THE DEVELOPING
WARM-FRONT AS ACTIVITY ALOFT NEGATIVELY TROUGHS LENDING TO
INTENSIFICATION OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ENHANCED
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. CHECK OUT THE H85-5
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES OUT OF THE S. H925 WINDS OUT OF THE E...
PERHAPS AIDING IN MOISTENING OF LOW-LEVELS AND ADDING A DEGREE OF
OCEAN-EFFECT FETCH TO THE DISCERNED BANDING. WITHIN THE E-W SNOW
BANDING PRESENTLY IMPACTING THE S-COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF NEW
ENGLAND...VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO A MILE ON AVERAGE. SNOW SHOULD
ACCUMULATE IMMEDIATELY AS TEMPERATURES RANGE AROUND THE UPPER-
TEENS TO LOW-20S AND THE GROUND IS EXCEPTIONALLY COLD.

ALSO SEEING A COASTAL FRONT SETUP SW-NE OFFSHORE OF THE IMMEDIATE
E-MA COASTLINE AND THROUGH THE CAPE-COD CANAL. THE CONVERGENCE OF
WINDS AND DECENT MOISTURE FETCH IS LENDING TO SOME LIGHT SNOWS
OVER THE S-BOSTON-METRO INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY. EXPECTING ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE ANTICIPATED DEEPENING OF LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC.

IMPORTANT: AS ALLUDED TO BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WITH
INCREASING WINDS YIELDS AN INCREASING FETCH. ENHANCEMENT OF
OCEAN-EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS E-MA POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE EVENING
COMMUTE. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES AND SUBSEQUENT REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...COULD BE IMPACTS TO
EVENING BOSTON-METRO AREA COMMUTE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THAT
CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

MODEST AND COLD HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS QC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. WITH DRIER AND COLDER AIR GRADUALLY PULLING N. HOWEVER...IT
IS THANKS TO THIS BLOCK...AND THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE THAN THERE
WAS WITH THE WEEKEND STORM...THAT WILL ALLOW LOW PRES...NEWLY
DEVELOPING OFF THE VA/NC COASTLINE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND SLOW AS
IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*** POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM RAMPS UP TONIGHT ***

* BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A HISTORICAL BLIZZARD IMPACTING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN THERE ARE NOT SOME MESOSCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE APPROACHES. AT
ISSUE AT THIS POINT...ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE FINAL LOW PRES DEPTH
PRIOR TO THE OCCLUSION PROCESS RANGING FROM 978 HPA ON THE NAM/CMC
TO 984 ON THE GFS. AT ODDS ALSO...IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO
DISTINCT BANDED SNOW FEATURES...THE FIRST...A LONG AND SIGNIFICANT
DEFORMATION/F-GEN BAND STRETCHING FROM COASTAL MAIN INTO INTERIOR
SRN NEW ENGLAND...THE TIP OF WHICH COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE
CT VALLEY TO METRO-WEST AND THE MERRIMACK VALLEY. AVAILABLE WRF
OUTPUTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HERE...WITH THE NMM FURTHER W WITH
THE HEAVIER BANDING...WHILE THE ARW IS SUGGESTING THE E. THE OTHER
AREA WILL LIKELY BE FORM CENTRAL RI THROUGH ABOUT THE S SHORE/BOS
METRO OF MASS AS A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS AND WAVERS INLAND. SO IT
IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE TWO BULLSEYES OF SNOW
TOTALS TO WATCH...WHERE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO EXCEED 2
FT. FINALLY...THIS BANDING LOCATION WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON
FINAL TRACK...WHICH ARE STILL IN SOME MESO-SCALE DISPUTE WITH THE
GFS REMAINING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
WHILE THE ECWMF/NAM ARE JUST INSIDE AND MUCH SLOWER...STALLING THE
LOW PRES ONLY ABOUT 50 NM SE OF ACK. THEREFORE...THE BANDING AND
AXIS OF 2.5-3.0 INCH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO WAVER A
BIT...AND WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED AS THE EVENT IS UNFOLDING. WILL
TRY TO SHOW THIS TWO-BULLSEYE SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT WITH THIS
UPDATE...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE HIGH IMPACT STORM ACROSS ALL
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHOLESALE CHANGES WILL NOTE BE MADE.

DETAILS/IMPACTS...

PRECIP TYPE...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCE OF A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
BRIEFLY ESPECIALLY FOR ACK...WITH THE H92 0C LINE INCHING CLOSE
/BUT STAYING MAINLY S WITH THE 00Z RUNS/. NAM IS COLDEST WHILE
ECMWF REMAINS THE COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. GIVEN THE
SLIGHT COOLING SHIFT OF RECENT RUNS AND EXAMINING BUFKIT PROFILES
AND BASED ON IMPACT POTENTIAL...WILL BE UPGRADING ACK TO A WINTER
STORM WATCH THIS THIS UPDATE...AS INITIAL SNOW...FOLLOWED BY BACK
END AFTER THE POTENTIAL CHANGEOVER...COULD STILL EXCEED WARNING
CRITERIA.

TOTAL SNOWFALL/BLIZZARD...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE..WE ARE ALREADY NOTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
THE N AND S SHORES /BOS METRO ALSO/ AROUND THE TIME OF AFTERNOON
RUSH. GIVEN THE STORM PREP...IT/S POSSIBLE MORE COULD BE ON THE
ROAD. THEREFORE...MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME MODEST ACCUMULATIONS
BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVES UP FROM THE SW BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z. BY 00Z IT SHOULD BE SNOWING...ALTHOUGH LIGHTLY TO START
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY TOTALS LIKELY
FALLING BELOW AN INCH OR TWO.

AS STATED THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO BANDING LOCATIONS...ONE
FROM TYPICAL MID-LVL DEFORMATION AND NEGATIVE EPV...WITH THE OTHER
CLOSER TO THE SFC INVOF OF THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS RI-SE MA OR
NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WHILE NAILING THESE DOWN IS DIFFICULT
ALMOST 24 HOURS OUT...MESOSCALE MODELS DO AT THE VERY LEAST
INDICATE THAT WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS...DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR A MAXIMUM AND WITH BANDS OF VERY NEGATIVE EPV...2-3
IN/HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS ARE LIKELY
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING WELL INTO THE DAY ON TUE
AS THESE BANDS SLOWLY PIVOT AND BEGIN A SLOW SHIFT TO THE E. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT...THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT A FOOT IN 6 HOURS OR EVEN LESS.

THEREFORE...FEEL THE MENTION OF 2+ FT OF TOTAL SNOWFALL ACROSS
INTERIOR TO E MA/RI AND EVEN NRN CT IS POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW
SPOTS APPROACHING 3 FT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. REGARDING THE
BLIZZARDS...BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES STILL SUPPORT WINDS NEAR BLIZZ
CRITERIA ALONG WITH THIS POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS WITHIN THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNINGS...SO NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE CHANCE FOR LOWER SN RATIOS NEARER TO THE COASTAL FRONT
LOCATIONS...COLOCATED WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PORTIONS OF SE MA /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST/ FOR THE HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES. HIGHER RATIOS FURTHER INLAND
/COLDER AIR/ ARE EXPECTED.

IT APPEARS OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY DELAY THE END TIME
ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE S SHORE...SE MA AND E RI LATE TUE
INTO WED...WHICH MAY SNOW UNTIL AFTER NOON ON WED. HOWEVER...BY
TUE NIGHT...EXPECT SLOWLY DIMINISHING SNOWFALL RATES FROM W TO E.

WINDS...
GFS HAS BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE LLJ...NOW SUPPORTING 65 KT AT
H92 FROM SRN RI THROUGH BOS AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...NAM/ECMWF
CONTINUE LEAN CLOSER TO 70-80 KT. BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF THIS MOMENTUM BEING MIXED ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COASTLINES. THEREFORE...CAN STILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING HURRICANE VELOCITY NEAR THE SHORE...PARTICULARLY THE
OUTER ARM OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET ALTHOUGH THIS TAPERS
INLAND...STILL COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS 50-60 MPH AS FAR INLAND
AS RI AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WHERE THIS
COINCIDES WITH LOWER RATIO /MORE WATER LADEN/ SNOW...COULD PRODUCE
MORE TREE DAMAGE AND THEREFORE POTENTIALLY MORE POWER OUTAGES.

COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR MORE ON THIS...PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END WED MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WED NIGHT AND WITH DEEP SNOW PACK IN
PLACE/DIMINISHING WIND SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
FRI.  THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.  IF THE ENERGY ENDS
UP GOING NORTH OF US WILL JUST HAVE A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS.  A
TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW.  IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 21Z TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.  MVFR CIGS ALREADY DEVELOPING WITH COLD NORTHEAST WINDS
BLOWING OFF THE OCEAN.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...VFR
REMAINS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING...AT WHICH POINT
A SLOW DIP WITH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE S. SNOWS
MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT 18-21Z...BUT SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT EARLIER ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEGIN
TO DIP FROM MVFR TO VLIFR WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AIRPORTS REACHING
MINIMUMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING TUE. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
HEAVY-BLOWING SNOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AIRPORTS SEEING
2-3 INCH OR MORE PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...40-50 MPH INLAND AT TIMES...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 70-80 MPH WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. ASIDE FROM THIS...LLWS IS LIKELY AS WINDS AT 2KFT ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 70-80 KT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT AND/OR FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY
FRI.  DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR BOTH
 TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ***

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH THE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ALONG THE
MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HAVE CONVERTED THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TO A WARNING. HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND
6 AM AND AGAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN
BOSTON HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM AND 5 PM.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...STILL ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE
TO BE 3 TO 3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING. THE ACTUAL PEAK STORM TIDE
COULD BE 15 TO 30 MINUTES AFTER THE SCHEDULED HIGH TIDE IN SOME
LOCATIONS DUE TO INCREASING SURGE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET
JUST OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SEAS WILL
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IN TYPICALLY
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY BUT NOT LIMITED TO
HULL...SCITUATE...AND MARSHFIELD. NE SURFACE WINDS ANTICIPATED TO
BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY TUESDAY
AM HIGH TIDE...PERHAPS EVEN GUSTING TO BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT OFF
ALONG THE CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET COAST. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS...WAVE RUNUP
AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR
MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER
BEACHES. WE ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE EROSION POTENTIAL
FOR EAST FACING SHORELINES ALONG PLUM ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM
AND NANTUCKET.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD
BE STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE STILL
EXPECTED FOR THE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BESIDES
CONTINUING CONCERNS REGARDING EROSION ALONG PLUM
ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET...SEVERE EROSION IS
LIKELY TO BE ALSO A CONCERN ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD FROM
SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WINDS WILL SHIFTED TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BY THAT TIME.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THE EXACT TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS /GUSTS TO 70 KT POSSIBLE!/ AND SURGE...WHICH APPEAR TO OCCUR
AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE LATE TUE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. GIVEN THE
TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW TIDE AND HIGH TIDE IS ONLY 6 HRS THERE
ISN/T MUCH MARGIN FOR ERROR HERE. IF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE
COINCIDE WITH ONE OF THESE HIGH TIDES...THEN MORE AREAS WOULD BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261604
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1104 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING.
DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...

HERE WE GO.

TOP-DOWN MOISTENING APPARENT BETWEEN 0Z AND 12Z CHATHAM SOUNDING
WITH SOME DRY-AIR LINGERING AROUND H85. MUCH DRIER N PER PORTLAND
MAINE SOUNDING WITH EXTREMELY LOW PWATS. IT IS THE COMBINATION OF
THERMAL-PACKING / AIRMASS ALONG WHICH WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS THAT
WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE W-E F-GEN FORCING ALONG THE DEVELOPING
WARM-FRONT AS ACTIVITY ALOFT NEGATIVELY TROUGHS LENDING TO
INTENSIFICATION OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ENHANCED
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. CHECK OUT THE H85-5
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES OUT OF THE S. H925 WINDS OUT OF THE E...
PERHAPS AIDING IN MOISTENING OF LOW-LEVELS AND ADDING A DEGREE OF
OCEAN-EFFECT FETCH TO THE DISCERNED BANDING. WITHIN THE E-W SNOW
BANDING PRESENTLY IMPACTING THE S-COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF NEW
ENGLAND...VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO A MILE ON AVERAGE. SNOW SHOULD
ACCUMULATE IMMEDIATELY AS TEMPERATURES RANGE AROUND THE UPPER-
TEENS TO LOW-20S AND THE GROUND IS EXCEPTIONALLY COLD.

ALSO SEEING A COASTAL FRONT SETUP SW-NE OFFSHORE OF THE IMMEDIATE
E-MA COASTLINE AND THROUGH THE CAPE-COD CANAL. THE CONVERGENCE OF
WINDS AND DECENT MOISTURE FETCH IS LENDING TO SOME LIGHT SNOWS
OVER THE S-BOSTON-METRO INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY. EXPECTING ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE ANTICIPATED DEEPENING OF LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC.

IMPORTANT: AS ALLUDED TO BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WITH
INCREASING WINDS YIELDS AN INCREASING FETCH. ENHANCEMENT OF
OCEAN-EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS E-MA POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE EVENING
COMMUTE. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES AND SUBSEQUENT REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...COULD BE IMPACTS TO
EVENING BOSTON-METRO AREA COMMUTE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THAT
CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

MODEST AND COLD HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS QC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. WITH DRIER AND COLDER AIR GRADUALLY PULLING N. HOWEVER...IT
IS THANKS TO THIS BLOCK...AND THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE THAN THERE
WAS WITH THE WEEKEND STORM...THAT WILL ALLOW LOW PRES...NEWLY
DEVELOPING OFF THE VA/NC COASTLINE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND SLOW AS
IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*** POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM RAMPS UP TONIGHT ***

* BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A HISTORICAL BLIZZARD IMPACTING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN THERE ARE NOT SOME MESOSCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE APPROACHES. AT
ISSUE AT THIS POINT...ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE FINAL LOW PRES DEPTH
PRIOR TO THE OCCLUSION PROCESS RANGING FROM 978 HPA ON THE NAM/CMC
TO 984 ON THE GFS. AT ODDS ALSO...IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO
DISTINCT BANDED SNOW FEATURES...THE FIRST...A LONG AND SIGNIFICANT
DEFORMATION/F-GEN BAND STRETCHING FROM COASTAL MAIN INTO INTERIOR
SRN NEW ENGLAND...THE TIP OF WHICH COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE
CT VALLEY TO METRO-WEST AND THE MERRIMACK VALLEY. AVAILABLE WRF
OUTPUTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HERE...WITH THE NMM FURTHER W WITH
THE HEAVIER BANDING...WHILE THE ARW IS SUGGESTING THE E. THE OTHER
AREA WILL LIKELY BE FORM CENTRAL RI THROUGH ABOUT THE S SHORE/BOS
METRO OF MASS AS A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS AND WAVERS INLAND. SO IT
IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE TWO BULLSEYES OF SNOW
TOTALS TO WATCH...WHERE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO EXCEED 2
FT. FINALLY...THIS BANDING LOCATION WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON
FINAL TRACK...WHICH ARE STILL IN SOME MESO-SCALE DISPUTE WITH THE
GFS REMAINING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
WHILE THE ECWMF/NAM ARE JUST INSIDE AND MUCH SLOWER...STALLING THE
LOW PRES ONLY ABOUT 50 NM SE OF ACK. THEREFORE...THE BANDING AND
AXIS OF 2.5-3.0 INCH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO WAVER A
BIT...AND WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED AS THE EVENT IS UNFOLDING. WILL
TRY TO SHOW THIS TWO-BULLSEYE SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT WITH THIS
UPDATE...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE HIGH IMPACT STORM ACROSS ALL
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHOLESALE CHANGES WILL NOTE BE MADE.

DETAILS/IMPACTS...

PRECIP TYPE...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCE OF A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
BRIEFLY ESPECIALLY FOR ACK...WITH THE H92 0C LINE INCHING CLOSE
/BUT STAYING MAINLY S WITH THE 00Z RUNS/. NAM IS COLDEST WHILE
ECMWF REMAINS THE COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. GIVEN THE
SLIGHT COOLING SHIFT OF RECENT RUNS AND EXAMINING BUFKIT PROFILES
AND BASED ON IMPACT POTENTIAL...WILL BE UPGRADING ACK TO A WINTER
STORM WATCH THIS THIS UPDATE...AS INITIAL SNOW...FOLLOWED BY BACK
END AFTER THE POTENTIAL CHANGEOVER...COULD STILL EXCEED WARNING
CRITERIA.

TOTAL SNOWFALL/BLIZZARD...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE..WE ARE ALREADY NOTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
THE N AND S SHORES /BOS METRO ALSO/ AROUND THE TIME OF AFTERNOON
RUSH. GIVEN THE STORM PREP...IT/S POSSIBLE MORE COULD BE ON THE
ROAD. THEREFORE...MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME MODEST ACCUMULATIONS
BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVES UP FROM THE SW BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z. BY 00Z IT SHOULD BE SNOWING...ALTHOUGH LIGHTLY TO START
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY TOTALS LIKELY
FALLING BELOW AN INCH OR TWO.

AS STATED THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO BANDING LOCATIONS...ONE
FROM TYPICAL MID-LVL DEFORMATION AND NEGATIVE EPV...WITH THE OTHER
CLOSER TO THE SFC INVOF OF THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS RI-SE MA OR
NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WHILE NAILING THESE DOWN IS DIFFICULT
ALMOST 24 HOURS OUT...MESOSCALE MODELS DO AT THE VERY LEAST
INDICATE THAT WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS...DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR A MAXIMUM AND WITH BANDS OF VERY NEGATIVE EPV...2-3
IN/HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS ARE LIKELY
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING WELL INTO THE DAY ON TUE
AS THESE BANDS SLOWLY PIVOT AND BEGIN A SLOW SHIFT TO THE E. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT...THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT A FOOT IN 6 HOURS OR EVEN LESS.

THEREFORE...FEEL THE MENTION OF 2+ FT OF TOTAL SNOWFALL ACROSS
INTERIOR TO E MA/RI AND EVEN NRN CT IS POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW
SPOTS APPROACHING 3 FT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. REGARDING THE
BLIZZARDS...BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES STILL SUPPORT WINDS NEAR BLIZZ
CRITERIA ALONG WITH THIS POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS WITHIN THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNINGS...SO NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE CHANCE FOR LOWER SN RATIOS NEARER TO THE COASTAL FRONT
LOCATIONS...COLOCATED WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PORTIONS OF SE MA /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST/ FOR THE HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES. HIGHER RATIOS FURTHER INLAND
/COLDER AIR/ ARE EXPECTED.

IT APPEARS OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY DELAY THE END TIME
ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE S SHORE...SE MA AND E RI LATE TUE
INTO WED...WHICH MAY SNOW UNTIL AFTER NOON ON WED. HOWEVER...BY
TUE NIGHT...EXPECT SLOWLY DIMINISHING SNOWFALL RATES FROM W TO E.

WINDS...
GFS HAS BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE LLJ...NOW SUPPORTING 65 KT AT
H92 FROM SRN RI THROUGH BOS AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...NAM/ECMWF
CONTINUE LEAN CLOSER TO 70-80 KT. BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF THIS MOMENTUM BEING MIXED ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COASTLINES. THEREFORE...CAN STILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING HURRICANE VELOCITY NEAR THE SHORE...PARTICULARLY THE
OUTER ARM OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET ALTHOUGH THIS TAPERS
INLAND...STILL COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS 50-60 MPH AS FAR INLAND
AS RI AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WHERE THIS
COINCIDES WITH LOWER RATIO /MORE WATER LADEN/ SNOW...COULD PRODUCE
MORE TREE DAMAGE AND THEREFORE POTENTIALLY MORE POWER OUTAGES.

COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR MORE ON THIS...PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END WED MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WED NIGHT AND WITH DEEP SNOW PACK IN
PLACE/DIMINISHING WIND SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
FRI.  THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.  IF THE ENERGY ENDS
UP GOING NORTH OF US WILL JUST HAVE A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS.  A
TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW.  IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 21Z TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.  MVFR CIGS ALREADY DEVELOPING WITH COLD NORTHEAST WINDS
BLOWING OFF THE OCEAN.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...VFR
REMAINS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING...AT WHICH POINT
A SLOW DIP WITH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE S. SNOWS
MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT 18-21Z...BUT SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT EARLIER ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEGIN
TO DIP FROM MVFR TO VLIFR WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AIRPORTS REACHING
MINIMUMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING TUE. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
HEAVY-BLOWING SNOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AIRPORTS SEEING
2-3 INCH OR MORE PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...40-50 MPH INLAND AT TIMES...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 70-80 MPH WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. ASIDE FROM THIS...LLWS IS LIKELY AS WINDS AT 2KFT ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 70-80 KT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT AND/OR FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY
FRI.  DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR BOTH
 TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ***

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH THE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ALONG THE
MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HAVE CONVERTED THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TO A WARNING. HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND
6 AM AND AGAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN
BOSTON HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM AND 5 PM.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...STILL ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE
TO BE 3 TO 3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING. THE ACTUAL PEAK STORM TIDE
COULD BE 15 TO 30 MINUTES AFTER THE SCHEDULED HIGH TIDE IN SOME
LOCATIONS DUE TO INCREASING SURGE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET
JUST OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SEAS WILL
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IN TYPICALLY
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY BUT NOT LIMITED TO
HULL...SCITUATE...AND MARSHFIELD. NE SURFACE WINDS ANTICIPATED TO
BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY TUESDAY
AM HIGH TIDE...PERHAPS EVEN GUSTING TO BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT OFF
ALONG THE CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET COAST. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS...WAVE RUNUP
AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR
MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER
BEACHES. WE ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE EROSION POTENTIAL
FOR EAST FACING SHORELINES ALONG PLUM ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM
AND NANTUCKET.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD
BE STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE STILL
EXPECTED FOR THE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BESIDES
CONTINUING CONCERNS REGARDING EROSION ALONG PLUM
ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET...SEVERE EROSION IS
LIKELY TO BE ALSO A CONCERN ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD FROM
SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WINDS WILL SHIFTED TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BY THAT TIME.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THE EXACT TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS /GUSTS TO 70 KT POSSIBLE!/ AND SURGE...WHICH APPEAR TO OCCUR
AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE LATE TUE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. GIVEN THE
TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW TIDE AND HIGH TIDE IS ONLY 6 HRS THERE
ISN/T MUCH MARGIN FOR ERROR HERE. IF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE
COINCIDE WITH ONE OF THESE HIGH TIDES...THEN MORE AREAS WOULD BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261517
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1017 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING.
DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

HERE WE GO.

TOP-DOWN MOISTENING APPARENT BETWEEN 0Z AND 12Z CHATHAM SOUNDING
WITH SOME DRY-AIR LINGERING AROUND H85. MUCH DRIER N PER PORTLAND
MAINE SOUNDING WITH EXTREMELY LOW PWATS. IT IS THE COMBINATION OF
THERMAL-PACKING / AIRMASS ALONG WHICH WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS THAT
WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE W-E F-GEN FORCING ALONG THE DEVELOPING
WARM-FRONT AS ACTIVITY ALOFT NEGATIVELY TROUGHS LENDING TO
INTENSIFICATION OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ENHANCED
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. CHECK OUT THE H85-5
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES OUT OF THE S. H925 WINDS OUT OF THE E...
PERHAPS AIDING IN MOISTENING OF LOW-LEVELS AND ADDING A DEGREE OF
OCEAN-EFFECT FETCH TO THE DISCERNED BANDING. WITHIN THE E-W SNOW
BANDING PRESENTLY IMPACTING THE S-COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF NEW
ENGLAND...VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO A MILE ON AVERAGE. SNOW SHOULD
ACCUMULATE IMMEDIATELY AS TEMPERATURES RANGE AROUND THE UPPER-
TEENS TO LOW-20S AND THE GROUND IS EXCEPTIONALLY COLD.

ALSO SEEING A COASTAL FRONT SETUP SW-NE OFFSHORE OF THE IMMEDIATE
E-MA COASTLINE AND THROUGH THE CAPE-COD CANAL. THE CONVERGENCE OF
WINDS AND DECENT MOISTURE FETCH IS LENDING TO SOME LIGHT SNOWS
OVER THE S-BOSTON-METRO INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY. EXPECTING ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE ANTICIPATED DEEPENING OF LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC.

IMPORTANT: AS ALLUDED TO BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WITH
INCREASING WINDS YIELDS AN INCREASING FETCH. ENHANCEMENT OF
OCEAN-EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS E-MA POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE EVENING
COMMUTE. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES AND SUBSEQUENT REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...COULD BE IMPACTS TO
EVENING BOSTON-METRO AREA COMMUTE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THAT
CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

MODEST AND COLD HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS QC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. WITH DRIER AND COLDER AIR GRADUALLY PULLING N. HOWEVER...IT
IS THANKS TO THIS BLOCK...AND THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE THAN THERE
WAS WITH THE WEEKEND STORM...THAT WILL ALLOW LOW PRES...NEWLY
DEVELOPING OFF THE VA/NC COASTLINE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND SLOW AS
IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*** POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM RAMPS UP TONIGHT ***

* BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A HISTORICAL BLIZZARD IMPACTING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN THERE ARE NOT SOME MESOSCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE APPROACHES. AT
ISSUE AT THIS POINT...ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE FINAL LOW PRES DEPTH
PRIOR TO THE OCCLUSION PROCESS RANGING FROM 978 HPA ON THE NAM/CMC
TO 984 ON THE GFS. AT ODDS ALSO...IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO
DISTINCT BANDED SNOW FEATURES...THE FIRST...A LONG AND SIGNIFICANT
DEFORMATION/F-GEN BAND STRETCHING FROM COASTAL MAIN INTO INTERIOR
SRN NEW ENGLAND...THE TIP OF WHICH COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE
CT VALLEY TO METRO-WEST AND THE MERRIMACK VALLEY. AVAILABLE WRF
OUTPUTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HERE...WITH THE NMM FURTHER W WITH
THE HEAVIER BANDING...WHILE THE ARW IS SUGGESTING THE E. THE OTHER
AREA WILL LIKELY BE FORM CENTRAL RI THROUGH ABOUT THE S SHORE/BOS
METRO OF MASS AS A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS AND WAVERS INLAND. SO IT
IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE TWO BULLSEYES OF SNOW
TOTALS TO WATCH...WHERE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO EXCEED 2
FT. FINALLY...THIS BANDING LOCATION WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON
FINAL TRACK...WHICH ARE STILL IN SOME MESO-SCALE DISPUTE WITH THE
GFS REMAINING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
WHILE THE ECWMF/NAM ARE JUST INSIDE AND MUCH SLOWER...STALLING THE
LOW PRES ONLY ABOUT 50 NM SE OF ACK. THEREFORE...THE BANDING AND
AXIS OF 2.5-3.0 INCH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO WAVER A
BIT...AND WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED AS THE EVENT IS UNFOLDING. WILL
TRY TO SHOW THIS TWO-BULLSEYE SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT WITH THIS
UPDATE...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE HIGH IMPACT STORM ACROSS ALL
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHOLESALE CHANGES WILL NOTE BE MADE.

DETAILS/IMPACTS...

PRECIP TYPE...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCE OF A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
BRIEFLY ESPECIALLY FOR ACK...WITH THE H92 0C LINE INCHING CLOSE
/BUT STAYING MAINLY S WITH THE 00Z RUNS/. NAM IS COLDEST WHILE
ECMWF REMAINS THE COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. GIVEN THE
SLIGHT COOLING SHIFT OF RECENT RUNS AND EXAMINING BUFKIT PROFILES
AND BASED ON IMPACT POTENTIAL...WILL BE UPGRADING ACK TO A WINTER
STORM WATCH THIS THIS UPDATE...AS INITIAL SNOW...FOLLOWED BY BACK
END AFTER THE POTENTIAL CHANGEOVER...COULD STILL EXCEED WARNING
CRITERIA.

TOTAL SNOWFALL/BLIZZARD...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE..WE ARE ALREADY NOTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
THE N AND S SHORES /BOS METRO ALSO/ AROUND THE TIME OF AFTERNOON
RUSH. GIVEN THE STORM PREP...IT/S POSSIBLE MORE COULD BE ON THE
ROAD. THEREFORE...MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME MODEST ACCUMULATIONS
BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVES UP FROM THE SW BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z. BY 00Z IT SHOULD BE SNOWING...ALTHOUGH LIGHTLY TO START
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY TOTALS LIKELY
FALLING BELOW AN INCH OR TWO.

AS STATED THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO BANDING LOCATIONS...ONE
FROM TYPICAL MID-LVL DEFORMATION AND NEGATIVE EPV...WITH THE OTHER
CLOSER TO THE SFC INVOF OF THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS RI-SE MA OR
NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WHILE NAILING THESE DOWN IS DIFFICULT
ALMOST 24 HOURS OUT...MESOSCALE MODELS DO AT THE VERY LEAST
INDICATE THAT WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS...DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR A MAXIMUM AND WITH BANDS OF VERY NEGATIVE EPV...2-3
IN/HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS ARE LIKELY
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING WELL INTO THE DAY ON TUE
AS THESE BANDS SLOWLY PIVOT AND BEGIN A SLOW SHIFT TO THE E. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT...THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT A FOOT IN 6 HOURS OR EVEN LESS.

THEREFORE...FEEL THE MENTION OF 2+ FT OF TOTAL SNOWFALL ACROSS
INTERIOR TO E MA/RI AND EVEN NRN CT IS POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW
SPOTS APPROACHING 3 FT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. REGARDING THE
BLIZZARDS...BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES STILL SUPPORT WINDS NEAR BLIZZ
CRITERIA ALONG WITH THIS POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS WITHIN THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNINGS...SO NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE CHANCE FOR LOWER SN RATIOS NEARER TO THE COASTAL FRONT
LOCATIONS...COLOCATED WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PORTIONS OF SE MA /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST/ FOR THE HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES. HIGHER RATIOS FURTHER INLAND
/COLDER AIR/ ARE EXPECTED.

IT APPEARS OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY DELAY THE END TIME
ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE S SHORE...SE MA AND E RI LATE TUE
INTO WED...WHICH MAY SNOW UNTIL AFTER NOON ON WED. HOWEVER...BY
TUE NIGHT...EXPECT SLOWLY DIMINISHING SNOWFALL RATES FROM W TO E.

WINDS...
GFS HAS BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE LLJ...NOW SUPPORTING 65 KT AT
H92 FROM SRN RI THROUGH BOS AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...NAM/ECMWF
CONTINUE LEAN CLOSER TO 70-80 KT. BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF THIS MOMENTUM BEING MIXED ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COASTLINES. THEREFORE...CAN STILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING HURRICANE VELOCITY NEAR THE SHORE...PARTICULARLY THE
OUTER ARM OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET ALTHOUGH THIS TAPERS
INLAND...STILL COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS 50-60 MPH AS FAR INLAND
AS RI AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WHERE THIS
COINCIDES WITH LOWER RATIO /MORE WATER LADEN/ SNOW...COULD PRODUCE
MORE TREE DAMAGE AND THEREFORE POTENTIALLY MORE POWER OUTAGES.

COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR MORE ON THIS...PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END WED MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WED NIGHT AND WITH DEEP SNOW PACK IN
PLACE/DIMINISHING WIND SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
FRI.  THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.  IF THE ENERGY ENDS
UP GOING NORTH OF US WILL JUST HAVE A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS.  A
TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW.  IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 21Z TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.  MVFR CIGS ALREADY DEVELOPING WITH COLD NORTHEAST WINDS
BLOWING OFF THE OCEAN.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...VFR
REMAINS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING...AT WHICH POINT
A SLOW DIP WITH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE S. SNOWS
MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT 18-21Z...BUT SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT EARLIER ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEGIN
TO DIP FROM MVFR TO VLIFR WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AIRPORTS REACHING
MINIMUMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING TUE. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
HEAVY-BLOWING SNOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AIRPORTS SEEING
2-3 INCH OR MORE PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...40-50 MPH INLAND AT TIMES...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 70-80 MPH WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. ASIDE FROM THIS...LLWS IS LIKELY AS WINDS AT 2KFT ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 70-80 KT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT AND/OR FRI.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY
FRI.  DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

*** A PERIOD OF HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE TUE AM ***

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN
PLACE FOR THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH TO SPLASH OVER
SEAS WALLS FOR OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY
PRONE TO IT. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS...WAVE RUNUP AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A
STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST
AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE STILL 25
TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THE EXACT TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS /GUSTS TO 70 KT POSSIBLE!/ AND SURGE...WHICH APPEAR TO OCCUR
AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE LATE TUE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. GIVEN THE
TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW TIDE AND HIGH TIDE IS ONLY 6 HRS THERE
ISN/T MUCH MARGIN FOR ERROR HERE. IF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE
COINCIDE WITH ONE OF THESE HIGH TIDES MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING WOULD
OCCUR.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 261508 AAC
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1008 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO THICKEN UP AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT INCREASES. SOME LOW LEVEL CUMULUS STREAMERS
APPARENTLY TRYING TO ORGANIZE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AND THIS MAY
RESULT IN OCEAN EFFECT SHOWERS ALONG THE MIDCOAST THIS AFTERNOON.
NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GENERALLY QUIET WX FOR MOST OF TODAY. IT
WILL BE COLD WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD...AND WINDS GRADUALLY
INCREASING FROM THE NE THRU THE DAY. LATE IN THE DAY SOME SN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN NH AS LOW PRES BEGINS TO GET ORGANIZED S OF
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING COASTAL STORM IS SET TO
AFFECT THE REGION BEGINNING LATE TODAY THRU TUE NIGHT.

LOW PRES WILL MOVE THRU THE CAROLINAS TODAY...AND EXIT THE EAST
COAST. HERE IT WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC. LOW PRES WILL DROP SOME 20 MB IN 24
HOURS...AND TAKE A POSITION S OF NEW ENGLAND AND STALL OR SLOWLY
DRIFT TOWARDS KACK. HEADLINES REMAIN MOSTLY THE SAME...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING ERN HILLSBOROUGH BEING ADDED TO THE BLIZZARD
WARNINGS.

A DEPARTING JET STREAK IN EXCESS OF 150 KTS N OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL COMBINE WITH A SLY JET STREAK OFF THE EAST COAST IN
EXCESS OF 130 KTS TO PROVIDE A STAGE FOR RELATIVELY EXPLOSIVE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES. GFS CROSS SECTIONS THRU FORECAST AREA
FROM ROUGHLY KPWM TO KHIE SHOW INTENSE FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN A
LAYER NEAR H7. THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE SUCH THAT AGEOSTROPHIC
FORCING WILL PROVIDE STRONG LIFT THRU THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
SNWFL WILL BE IDEAL AND FAIRLY EFFICIENT GIVEN THE WINDS FORECAST
ALOFT. GFS HAS THIS AXIS ALIGNED NEARLY ON TOP OF THE COASTLINE.
GIVEN THE FEATURES AVAILABLE ONE CAN INFER THAT THE ECMWF IS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NW OF THE GFS AXIS. ALTERNATIVELY...FINDING THE
AREA WITHIN THE MODELED FRONTOGENESIS AT H8 ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE DEFORMATION MAXIMUM SUPPORTS THIS ASSESSMENT OF THE ECMWF
BEING SLIGHTLY FARTHER NW WITH IDEAL SNWFL.

HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS LEFT REGARDING THIS STORM AND
THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SNWFL AMOUNTS. MODELED QPF IS
STRUGGLING TO ECLIPSE 2 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF EXTREME
SRN NH. THIS WOULD MAKE IT HARD FOR MANY AREAS TO SEE 2 FEET OF
SNWFL. IN ADDITION...OCCLUSION WILL ACT TO SHUT DOWN WAA PROCESSES
AND CUT OFF THE INTENSE LIFT NECESSARY FOR SNWFL RATES IN EXCESS
OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THESE TYPES OF RATES WILL BE NEEDED TO SEE
WIDESPREAD 20 INCH TOTALS. FINALLY...A STRONG COASTAL FNT WILL
DEVELOP. THIS WILL NOT MARK THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SNWFL AND
RA...BUT NEAR FREEZING AIR AND AIR IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
INTENSE LOW LEVEL LIFT NEAR THIS BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE SNWFL
IMMEDIATELY ON THE COLD SIDE...BUT FARTHER NW COULD SEE A BIT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERED TOTALS. FOR THESE REASON I TENDED TO KEEP
SNWFL TOTALS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...WITHOUT DRAMATIC
INCREASES. THOUGH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY COASTAL SRN NH AND THE MONADNOCKS...WHERE
STRONG ELY UPSLOPE WILL ENHANCE AMOUNTS.

THE GREATEST PERIOD OF CONCERN IS LOOK TO BE ROUGHLY 12Z TO 21Z
TUE. HERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF SNWFL AND WINDS LOOKS MOST
LIKELY. THE ECMWF HAS A 65+ KT LOW LEVEL JET AT 900 MB LIFTING NWD
ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW SOME OF THIS TO
MIX DOWN FAIRLY EASILY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SNWFL AROUND THAT
TIME...AND POTENTIALLY 45-50 KT GUSTS MIXING DOWN...BLIZZARD
WARNINGS LOOK GOOD. ELSEWHERE COULD SEE BRIEF NEAR-BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS BUT THERE WAS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXPAND...OUTSIDE
OF ERN HILLSBOROUGH. WHERE THE COMBINATION OF 1 INCH OR MORE PER
HOUR RATES AND 50 KT GUSTS OCCURS...TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE AND
LIFE THREATENING.

THE NEXT 12 HOURS WILL BE CRITICAL AS MODELS BEGIN TO HONE IN ON
THE MESOSCALE DETAILS. SOME SURPRISES ARE STILL LIKELY WITH THIS
STORM...AS THE VERY DYNAMIC EVENTS CAN CAUSE NWP TO STRUGGLE AT
TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES LEADING TO
DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE OVERALL THEME IS
WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE CONUS...WITH AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SYNOPTIC
SNOWS ROUGHLY EVERY TWO DAYS...WITH FRIDAY...SUNDAY...AND NEXT
TUESDAY FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS BEGINNING
IN SRN NH THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS NRN NH AND WRN ME EARLY TUE.
SNWFL RATES OF 2 INCHES OR MORE PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY TUE. STRONG NELY WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS...REACHING UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SNWFL WILL CONTINUE INTO
WED...WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...

WED...AREAS OF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. NW WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

FRI...AREAS OF MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL TURN NELY AND GRADUALLY BUILD
TODAY. TONIGHT INTO TUE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE DRAMATICALLY.
STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON ALL WATERS...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 25-30 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF HURRICANE FORCE TUE...ESPECIALLY ON THE HIGHER
PLATFORMS OF MISM1 AND IOSN3.

LONG TERM...

WED...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

FRI...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RELATIVELY LOW IN THE ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE HOWEVER
PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET
OFFSHORE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING AROUND THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. BEACH EROSION AND SPLASHOVER ARE LIKELY. AT
PORTLAND HIGH TIDE IS 10.0 FT AT 420AM TUESDAY...9.1FT AT 453PM
TUESDAY...AND 9.8FT AT 523AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261508 AAC
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1008 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO THICKEN UP AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT INCREASES. SOME LOW LEVEL CUMULUS STREAMERS
APPARENTLY TRYING TO ORGANIZE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AND THIS MAY
RESULT IN OCEAN EFFECT SHOWERS ALONG THE MIDCOAST THIS AFTERNOON.
NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GENERALLY QUIET WX FOR MOST OF TODAY. IT
WILL BE COLD WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD...AND WINDS GRADUALLY
INCREASING FROM THE NE THRU THE DAY. LATE IN THE DAY SOME SN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN NH AS LOW PRES BEGINS TO GET ORGANIZED S OF
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING COASTAL STORM IS SET TO
AFFECT THE REGION BEGINNING LATE TODAY THRU TUE NIGHT.

LOW PRES WILL MOVE THRU THE CAROLINAS TODAY...AND EXIT THE EAST
COAST. HERE IT WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC. LOW PRES WILL DROP SOME 20 MB IN 24
HOURS...AND TAKE A POSITION S OF NEW ENGLAND AND STALL OR SLOWLY
DRIFT TOWARDS KACK. HEADLINES REMAIN MOSTLY THE SAME...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING ERN HILLSBOROUGH BEING ADDED TO THE BLIZZARD
WARNINGS.

A DEPARTING JET STREAK IN EXCESS OF 150 KTS N OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL COMBINE WITH A SLY JET STREAK OFF THE EAST COAST IN
EXCESS OF 130 KTS TO PROVIDE A STAGE FOR RELATIVELY EXPLOSIVE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES. GFS CROSS SECTIONS THRU FORECAST AREA
FROM ROUGHLY KPWM TO KHIE SHOW INTENSE FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN A
LAYER NEAR H7. THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE SUCH THAT AGEOSTROPHIC
FORCING WILL PROVIDE STRONG LIFT THRU THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
SNWFL WILL BE IDEAL AND FAIRLY EFFICIENT GIVEN THE WINDS FORECAST
ALOFT. GFS HAS THIS AXIS ALIGNED NEARLY ON TOP OF THE COASTLINE.
GIVEN THE FEATURES AVAILABLE ONE CAN INFER THAT THE ECMWF IS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NW OF THE GFS AXIS. ALTERNATIVELY...FINDING THE
AREA WITHIN THE MODELED FRONTOGENESIS AT H8 ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE DEFORMATION MAXIMUM SUPPORTS THIS ASSESSMENT OF THE ECMWF
BEING SLIGHTLY FARTHER NW WITH IDEAL SNWFL.

HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS LEFT REGARDING THIS STORM AND
THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SNWFL AMOUNTS. MODELED QPF IS
STRUGGLING TO ECLIPSE 2 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF EXTREME
SRN NH. THIS WOULD MAKE IT HARD FOR MANY AREAS TO SEE 2 FEET OF
SNWFL. IN ADDITION...OCCLUSION WILL ACT TO SHUT DOWN WAA PROCESSES
AND CUT OFF THE INTENSE LIFT NECESSARY FOR SNWFL RATES IN EXCESS
OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THESE TYPES OF RATES WILL BE NEEDED TO SEE
WIDESPREAD 20 INCH TOTALS. FINALLY...A STRONG COASTAL FNT WILL
DEVELOP. THIS WILL NOT MARK THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SNWFL AND
RA...BUT NEAR FREEZING AIR AND AIR IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
INTENSE LOW LEVEL LIFT NEAR THIS BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE SNWFL
IMMEDIATELY ON THE COLD SIDE...BUT FARTHER NW COULD SEE A BIT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERED TOTALS. FOR THESE REASON I TENDED TO KEEP
SNWFL TOTALS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...WITHOUT DRAMATIC
INCREASES. THOUGH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY COASTAL SRN NH AND THE MONADNOCKS...WHERE
STRONG ELY UPSLOPE WILL ENHANCE AMOUNTS.

THE GREATEST PERIOD OF CONCERN IS LOOK TO BE ROUGHLY 12Z TO 21Z
TUE. HERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF SNWFL AND WINDS LOOKS MOST
LIKELY. THE ECMWF HAS A 65+ KT LOW LEVEL JET AT 900 MB LIFTING NWD
ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW SOME OF THIS TO
MIX DOWN FAIRLY EASILY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SNWFL AROUND THAT
TIME...AND POTENTIALLY 45-50 KT GUSTS MIXING DOWN...BLIZZARD
WARNINGS LOOK GOOD. ELSEWHERE COULD SEE BRIEF NEAR-BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS BUT THERE WAS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXPAND...OUTSIDE
OF ERN HILLSBOROUGH. WHERE THE COMBINATION OF 1 INCH OR MORE PER
HOUR RATES AND 50 KT GUSTS OCCURS...TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE AND
LIFE THREATENING.

THE NEXT 12 HOURS WILL BE CRITICAL AS MODELS BEGIN TO HONE IN ON
THE MESOSCALE DETAILS. SOME SURPRISES ARE STILL LIKELY WITH THIS
STORM...AS THE VERY DYNAMIC EVENTS CAN CAUSE NWP TO STRUGGLE AT
TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES LEADING TO
DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE OVERALL THEME IS
WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE CONUS...WITH AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SYNOPTIC
SNOWS ROUGHLY EVERY TWO DAYS...WITH FRIDAY...SUNDAY...AND NEXT
TUESDAY FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS BEGINNING
IN SRN NH THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS NRN NH AND WRN ME EARLY TUE.
SNWFL RATES OF 2 INCHES OR MORE PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY TUE. STRONG NELY WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS...REACHING UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SNWFL WILL CONTINUE INTO
WED...WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...

WED...AREAS OF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. NW WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

FRI...AREAS OF MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL TURN NELY AND GRADUALLY BUILD
TODAY. TONIGHT INTO TUE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE DRAMATICALLY.
STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON ALL WATERS...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 25-30 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF HURRICANE FORCE TUE...ESPECIALLY ON THE HIGHER
PLATFORMS OF MISM1 AND IOSN3.

LONG TERM...

WED...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

FRI...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RELATIVELY LOW IN THE ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE HOWEVER
PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET
OFFSHORE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING AROUND THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. BEACH EROSION AND SPLASHOVER ARE LIKELY. AT
PORTLAND HIGH TIDE IS 10.0 FT AT 420AM TUESDAY...9.1FT AT 453PM
TUESDAY...AND 9.8FT AT 523AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261157
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING.
DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

655 AM UPDATE...

VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS....EXCEPT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE
IT WAS IN THE 20S.  THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE COASTAL FRONT THAT
WILL SET UP INTO TUESDAY.  RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS...BUT AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY SO PRECIP NOT REACHING THE
GROUND.  SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BREAK OUT LATER
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF THE PIKE...BUT THE STEADIER SNOW WILL WAIT
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.  EXCEPTION MIGHT BE THE EASTERN MA
COAST...WHERE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH COLD
NORTHEAST FLOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

MODEST AND COLD HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS QC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. WITH DRIER AND COLDER AIR GRADUALLY PULLING N. HOWEVER...IT
IS THANKS TO THIS BLOCK...AND THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE THAN THERE
WAS WITH THE WEEKEND STORM...THAT WILL ALLOW LOW PRES...NEWLY
DEVELOPING OFF THE VA/NC COASTLINE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND SLOW AS
IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK BY THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH LIGHT ECHOS ARE ALREADY APPARENT S OF LI THIS
MORNING...THE DRY AIR IN PLACE WHERE DWPT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15F
WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF THE INITIAL ECHOS FROM REACHING THE
SFC...LOCKING THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE...AND HOLDING OFF SNOWFALL
UNTIL MAINLY THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. QPF IS LIGHT
DURING THIS TIME...SO ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A
COUPLE INCHES OR LESS.

THE ONLY CAVEAT THOUGH...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY HEAVIER
SNOWS ALONG AND NEAR THE E COAST OF MA. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALLS...DEVELOPING OFF OF THE COLD GULF OF MAINE
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE. THIS MAY ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES DURING
THE EARLIER COMMUTE AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING STORM...SO AREAS IN THE
BOS METRO AND N AND S SHORES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE
MORNING AS MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THESE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
NOT LONG AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*** POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM RAMPS UP TONIGHT ***

* BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A HISTORICAL BLIZZARD IMPACTING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN THERE ARE NOT SOME MESOSCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE APPROACHES. AT
ISSUE AT THIS POINT...ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE FINAL LOW PRES DEPTH
PRIOR TO THE OCCLUSION PROCESS RANGING FROM 978 HPA ON THE NAM/CMC
TO 984 ON THE GFS. AT ODDS ALSO...IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO
DISTINCT BANDED SNOW FEATURES...THE FIRST...A LONG AND SIGNIFICANT
DEFORMATION/F-GEN BAND STRETCHING FROM COASTAL MAIN INTO INTERIOR
SRN NEW ENGLAND...THE TIP OF WHICH COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE
CT VALLEY TO METRO-WEST AND THE MERRIMACK VALLEY. AVAILABLE WRF
OUTPUTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HERE...WITH THE NMM FURTHER W WITH
THE HEAVIER BANDING...WHILE THE ARW IS SUGGESTING THE E. THE OTHER
AREA WILL LIKELY BE FORM CENTRAL RI THROUGH ABOUT THE S SHORE/BOS
METRO OF MASS AS A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS AND WAVERS INLAND. SO IT
IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE TWO BULLSEYES OF SNOW
TOTALS TO WATCH...WHERE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO EXCEED 2
FT. FINALLY...THIS BANDING LOCATION WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON
FINAL TRACK...WHICH ARE STILL IN SOME MESO-SCALE DISPUTE WITH THE
GFS REMAINING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
WHILE THE ECWMF/NAM ARE JUST INSIDE AND MUCH SLOWER...STALLING THE
LOW PRES ONLY ABOUT 50 NM SE OF ACK. THEREFORE...THE BANDING AND
AXIS OF 2.5-3.0 INCH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO WAVER A
BIT...AND WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED AS THE EVENT IS UNFOLDING. WILL
TRY TO SHOW THIS TWO-BULLSEYE SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT WITH THIS
UPDATE...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE HIGH IMPACT STORM ACROSS ALL
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHOLESALE CHANGES WILL NOTE BE MADE.

DETAILS/IMPACTS...

PRECIP TYPE...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCE OF A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
BRIEFLY ESPECIALLY FOR ACK...WITH THE H92 0C LINE INCHING CLOSE
/BUT STAYING MAINLY S WITH THE 00Z RUNS/. NAM IS COLDEST WHILE
ECMWF REMAINS THE COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. GIVEN THE
SLIGHT COOLING SHIFT OF RECENT RUNS AND EXAMINING BUFKIT PROFILES
AND BASED ON IMPACT POTENTIAL...WILL BE UPGRADING ACK TO A WINTER
STORM WATCH THIS THIS UPDATE...AS INITIAL SNOW...FOLLOWED BY BACK
END AFTER THE POTENTIAL CHANGEOVER...COULD STILL EXCEED WARNING
CRITERIA.

TOTAL SNOWFALL/BLIZZARD...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE..WE ARE ALREADY NOTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
THE N AND S SHORES /BOS METRO ALSO/ AROUND THE TIME OF AFTERNOON
RUSH. GIVEN THE STORM PREP...IT/S POSSIBLE MORE COULD BE ON THE
ROAD. THEREFORE...MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME MODEST ACCUMULATIONS
BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVES UP FROM THE SW BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z. BY 00Z IT SHOULD BE SNOWING...ALTHOUGH LIGHTLY TO START
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY TOTALS LIKELY
FALLING BELOW AN INCH OR TWO.

AS STATED THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO BANDING LOCATIONS...ONE
FROM TYPICAL MID-LVL DEFORMATION AND NEGATIVE EPV...WITH THE OTHER
CLOSER TO THE SFC INVOF OF THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS RI-SE MA OR
NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WHILE NAILING THESE DOWN IS DIFFICULT
ALMOST 24 HOURS OUT...MESOSCALE MODELS DO AT THE VERY LEAST
INDICATE THAT WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS...DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR A MAXIMUM AND WITH BANDS OF VERY NEGATIVE EPV...2-3
IN/HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS ARE LIKELY
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING WELL INTO THE DAY ON TUE
AS THESE BANDS SLOWLY PIVOT AND BEGIN A SLOW SHIFT TO THE E. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT...THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT A FOOT IN 6 HOURS OR EVEN LESS.

THEREFORE...FEEL THE MENTION OF 2+ FT OF TOTAL SNOWFALL ACROSS
INTERIOR TO E MA/RI AND EVEN NRN CT IS POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW
SPOTS APPROACHING 3 FT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. REGARDING THE
BLIZZARDS...BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES STILL SUPPORT WINDS NEAR BLIZZ
CRITERIA ALONG WITH THIS POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS WITHIN THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNINGS...SO NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE CHANCE FOR LOWER SN RATIOS NEARER TO THE COASTAL FRONT
LOCATIONS...COLOCATED WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PORTIONS OF SE MA /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST/ FOR THE HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES. HIGHER RATIOS FURTHER INLAND
/COLDER AIR/ ARE EXPECTED.

IT APPEARS OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY DELAY THE END TIME
ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE S SHORE...SE MA AND E RI LATE TUE
INTO WED...WHICH MAY SNOW UNTIL AFTER NOON ON WED. HOWEVER...BY
TUE NIGHT...EXPECT SLOWLY DIMINISHING SNOWFALL RATES FROM W TO E.

WINDS...
GFS HAS BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE LLJ...NOW SUPPORTING 65 KT AT
H92 FROM SRN RI THROUGH BOS AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...NAM/ECMWF
CONTINUE LEAN CLOSER TO 70-80 KT. BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF THIS MOMENTUM BEING MIXED ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COASTLINES. THEREFORE...CAN STILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING HURRICANE VELOCITY NEAR THE SHORE...PARTICULARLY THE
OUTER ARM OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET ALTHOUGH THIS TAPERS
INLAND...STILL COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS 50-60 MPH AS FAR INLAND
AS RI AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WHERE THIS
COINCIDES WITH LOWER RATIO /MORE WATER LADEN/ SNOW...COULD PRODUCE
MORE TREE DAMAGE AND THEREFORE POTENTIALLY MORE POWER OUTAGES.

COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR MORE ON THIS...PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END WED MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WED NIGHT AND WITH DEEP SNOW PACK IN
PLACE/DIMINISHING WIND SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
FRI.  THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.  IF THE ENERGY ENDS
UP GOING NORTH OF US WILL JUST HAVE A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS.  A
TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW.  IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 21Z TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.  MVFR CIGS ALREADY DEVELOPING WITH COLD NORTHEAST WINDS
BLOWING OFF THE OCEAN.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...VFR
REMAINS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING...AT WHICH POINT
A SLOW DIP WITH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE S. SNOWS
MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT 18-21Z...BUT SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT EARLIER ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEGIN
TO DIP FROM MVFR TO VLIFR WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AIRPORTS REACHING
MINIMUMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING TUE. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
HEAVY-BLOWING SNOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AIRPORTS SEEING
2-3 INCH OR MORE PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...40-50 MPH INLAND AT TIMES...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 70-80 MPH WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. ASIDE FROM THIS...LLWS IS LIKELY AS WINDS AT 2KFT ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 70-80 KT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT AND/OR FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY
FRI.  DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

*** A PERIOD OF HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE TUE AM ***

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN
PLACE FOR THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH TO SPLASH OVER
SEAS WALLS FOR OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY
PRONE TO IT. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS...WAVE RUNUP AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A
STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST
AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE STILL 25
TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THE EXACT TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS /GUSTS TO 70 KT POSSIBLE!/ AND SURGE...WHICH APPEAR TO OCCUR
AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE LATE TUE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. GIVEN THE
TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW TIDE AND HIGH TIDE IS ONLY 6 HRS THERE
ISN/T MUCH MARGIN FOR ERROR HERE. IF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE
COINCIDE WITH ONE OF THESE HIGH TIDES MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING WOULD
OCCUR.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...DOODY/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261126 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
626 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. LOWERED MINS A FEW DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS...AS CIRRUS
SHIELD HASN/T SIGNIFICANT IMPACTED RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GENERALLY QUIET WX FOR MOST OF TODAY. IT
WILL BE COLD WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD...AND WINDS GRADUALLY
INCREASING FROM THE NE THRU THE DAY. LATE IN THE DAY SOME SN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN NH AS LOW PRES BEGINS TO GET ORGANIZED S OF
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING COASTAL STORM IS SET TO
AFFECT THE REGION BEGINNING LATE TODAY THRU TUE NIGHT.

LOW PRES WILL MOVE THRU THE CAROLINAS TODAY...AND EXIT THE EAST
COAST. HERE IT WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC. LOW PRES WILL DROP SOME 20 MB IN 24
HOURS...AND TAKE A POSITION S OF NEW ENGLAND AND STALL OR SLOWLY
DRIFT TOWARDS KACK. HEADLINES REMAIN MOSTLY THE SAME...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING ERN HILLSBOROUGH BEING ADDED TO THE BLIZZARD
WARNINGS.

A DEPARTING JET STREAK IN EXCESS OF 150 KTS N OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL COMBINE WITH A SLY JET STREAK OFF THE EAST COAST IN
EXCESS OF 130 KTS TO PROVIDE A STAGE FOR RELATIVELY EXPLOSIVE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES. GFS CROSS SECTIONS THRU FORECAST AREA
FROM ROUGHLY KPWM TO KHIE SHOW INTENSE FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN A
LAYER NEAR H7. THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE SUCH THAT AGEOSTROPHIC
FORCING WILL PROVIDE STRONG LIT THRU THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
SNWFL WILL BE IDEAL AND FAIRLY EFFICIENT GIVEN THE WINDS FORECAST
ALOFT. GFS HAS THIS AXIS ALIGNED NEARLY ON TOP OF THE COASTLINE.
GIVEN THE FEATURES AVAILABLE ONE CAN INFER THAT THE ECMWF IS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NW OF THE GFS AXIS. ALTERNATIVELY...FINDING THE
AREA WITHIN THE MODELED FRONTOGENESIS AT H8 ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE DEFORMATION MAXIMUM SUPPORTS THIS ASSESSMENT OF THE ECMWF
BEING SLIGHTLY FARTHER NW WITH IDEAL SNWFL.

HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS LEFT REGARDING THIS STORM AND
THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SNWFL AMOUNTS. MODELED QPF IS
STRUGGLING TO ECLIPSE 2 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF EXTREME
SRN NH. THIS WOULD MAKE IT HARD FOR MANY AREAS TO SEE 2 FEET OF
SNWFL. IN ADDITION...OCCLUSION WILL ACT TO SHUT DOWN WAA PROCESSES
AND CUT OFF THE INTENSE LIFT NECESSARY FOR SNWFL RATES IN EXCESS
OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THESE TYPES OF RATES WILL BE NEEDED TO SEE
WIDESPREAD 20 INCH TOTALS. FINALLY...A STRONG COASTAL FNT WILL
DEVELOP. THIS WILL NOT MARK THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SNWFL AND
RA...BUT NEAR FREEZING AIR AND AIR IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
INTENSE LOW LEVEL LIFT NEAR THIS BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE SNWFL
IMMEDIATELY ON THE COLD SIDE...BUT FARTHER NW COULD SEE A BIT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERED TOTALS. FOR THESE REASON I TENDED TO KEEP
SNWFL TOTALS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...WITHOUT DRAMATIC
INCREASES. THOUGH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY COASTAL SRN NH AND THE MONADNOCKS...WHERE
STRONG ELY UPSLOPE WILL ENHANCE AMOUNTS.

THE GREATEST PERIOD OF CONCERN IS LOOK TO BE ROUGHLY 12Z TO 21Z
TUE. HERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF SNWFL AND WINDS LOOKS MOST
LIKELY. THE ECMWF HAS A 65+ KT LOW LEVEL JET AT 900 MB LIFTING NWD
ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW SOME OF THIS TO
MIX DOWN FAIRLY EASILY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SNWFL AROUND THAT
TIME...AND POTENTIALLY 45-50 KT GUSTS MIXING DOWN...BLIZZARD
WARNINGS LOOK GOOD. ELSEWHERE COULD SEE BRIEF NEAR-BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS BUT THERE WAS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXPAND...OUTSIDE
OF ERN HILLSBOROUGH. WHERE THE COMBINATION OF 1 INCH OR MORE PER
HOUR RATES AND 50 KT GUSTS OCCURS...TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE AND
LIFE THREATENING.

THE NEXT 12 HOURS WILL BE CRITICAL AS MODELS BEGIN TO HONE IN ON
THE MESOSCALE DETAILS. SOME SURPRISES ARE STILL LIKELY WITH THIS
STORM...AS THE VERY DYNAMIC EVENTS CAN CAUSE NWP TO STRUGGLE AT
TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES LEADING TO
DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE OVERALL THEME IS
WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE CONUS...WITH AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SYNOPTIC
SNOWS ROUGHLY EVERY TWO DAYS...WITH FRIDAY...SUNDAY...AND NEXT
TUESDAY FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS BEGINNING
IN SRN NH THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS NRN NH AND WRN ME EARLY TUE.
SNWFL RATES OF 2 INCHES OR MORE PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY TUE. STRONG NELY WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS...REACHING UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SNWFL WILL CONTINUE INTO
WED...WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...

WED...AREAS OF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. NW WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

FRI...AREAS OF MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL TURN NELY AND GRADUALLY BUILD
TODAY. TONIGHT INTO TUE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE DRAMATICALLY.
STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON ALL WATERS...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 25-30 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF HURRICANE FORCE TUE...ESPECIALLY ON THE HIGHER
PLATFORMS OF MISM1 AND IOSN3.

LONG TERM...

WED...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

FRI...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RELATIVELY LOW IN THE ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE HOWEVER
PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET
OFFSHORE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING AROUND THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. BEACH EROSION AND SPLASHOVER ARE LIKELY. AT
PORTLAND HIGH TIDE IS 10.0 FT AT 420AM TUESDAY...9.1FT AT 453PM
TUESDAY...AND 9.8FT AT 523AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261126 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
626 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. LOWERED MINS A FEW DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS...AS CIRRUS
SHIELD HASN/T SIGNIFICANT IMPACTED RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GENERALLY QUIET WX FOR MOST OF TODAY. IT
WILL BE COLD WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD...AND WINDS GRADUALLY
INCREASING FROM THE NE THRU THE DAY. LATE IN THE DAY SOME SN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN NH AS LOW PRES BEGINS TO GET ORGANIZED S OF
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING COASTAL STORM IS SET TO
AFFECT THE REGION BEGINNING LATE TODAY THRU TUE NIGHT.

LOW PRES WILL MOVE THRU THE CAROLINAS TODAY...AND EXIT THE EAST
COAST. HERE IT WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC. LOW PRES WILL DROP SOME 20 MB IN 24
HOURS...AND TAKE A POSITION S OF NEW ENGLAND AND STALL OR SLOWLY
DRIFT TOWARDS KACK. HEADLINES REMAIN MOSTLY THE SAME...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING ERN HILLSBOROUGH BEING ADDED TO THE BLIZZARD
WARNINGS.

A DEPARTING JET STREAK IN EXCESS OF 150 KTS N OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL COMBINE WITH A SLY JET STREAK OFF THE EAST COAST IN
EXCESS OF 130 KTS TO PROVIDE A STAGE FOR RELATIVELY EXPLOSIVE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES. GFS CROSS SECTIONS THRU FORECAST AREA
FROM ROUGHLY KPWM TO KHIE SHOW INTENSE FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN A
LAYER NEAR H7. THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE SUCH THAT AGEOSTROPHIC
FORCING WILL PROVIDE STRONG LIT THRU THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
SNWFL WILL BE IDEAL AND FAIRLY EFFICIENT GIVEN THE WINDS FORECAST
ALOFT. GFS HAS THIS AXIS ALIGNED NEARLY ON TOP OF THE COASTLINE.
GIVEN THE FEATURES AVAILABLE ONE CAN INFER THAT THE ECMWF IS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NW OF THE GFS AXIS. ALTERNATIVELY...FINDING THE
AREA WITHIN THE MODELED FRONTOGENESIS AT H8 ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE DEFORMATION MAXIMUM SUPPORTS THIS ASSESSMENT OF THE ECMWF
BEING SLIGHTLY FARTHER NW WITH IDEAL SNWFL.

HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS LEFT REGARDING THIS STORM AND
THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SNWFL AMOUNTS. MODELED QPF IS
STRUGGLING TO ECLIPSE 2 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF EXTREME
SRN NH. THIS WOULD MAKE IT HARD FOR MANY AREAS TO SEE 2 FEET OF
SNWFL. IN ADDITION...OCCLUSION WILL ACT TO SHUT DOWN WAA PROCESSES
AND CUT OFF THE INTENSE LIFT NECESSARY FOR SNWFL RATES IN EXCESS
OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THESE TYPES OF RATES WILL BE NEEDED TO SEE
WIDESPREAD 20 INCH TOTALS. FINALLY...A STRONG COASTAL FNT WILL
DEVELOP. THIS WILL NOT MARK THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SNWFL AND
RA...BUT NEAR FREEZING AIR AND AIR IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
INTENSE LOW LEVEL LIFT NEAR THIS BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE SNWFL
IMMEDIATELY ON THE COLD SIDE...BUT FARTHER NW COULD SEE A BIT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERED TOTALS. FOR THESE REASON I TENDED TO KEEP
SNWFL TOTALS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...WITHOUT DRAMATIC
INCREASES. THOUGH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY COASTAL SRN NH AND THE MONADNOCKS...WHERE
STRONG ELY UPSLOPE WILL ENHANCE AMOUNTS.

THE GREATEST PERIOD OF CONCERN IS LOOK TO BE ROUGHLY 12Z TO 21Z
TUE. HERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF SNWFL AND WINDS LOOKS MOST
LIKELY. THE ECMWF HAS A 65+ KT LOW LEVEL JET AT 900 MB LIFTING NWD
ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW SOME OF THIS TO
MIX DOWN FAIRLY EASILY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SNWFL AROUND THAT
TIME...AND POTENTIALLY 45-50 KT GUSTS MIXING DOWN...BLIZZARD
WARNINGS LOOK GOOD. ELSEWHERE COULD SEE BRIEF NEAR-BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS BUT THERE WAS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXPAND...OUTSIDE
OF ERN HILLSBOROUGH. WHERE THE COMBINATION OF 1 INCH OR MORE PER
HOUR RATES AND 50 KT GUSTS OCCURS...TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE AND
LIFE THREATENING.

THE NEXT 12 HOURS WILL BE CRITICAL AS MODELS BEGIN TO HONE IN ON
THE MESOSCALE DETAILS. SOME SURPRISES ARE STILL LIKELY WITH THIS
STORM...AS THE VERY DYNAMIC EVENTS CAN CAUSE NWP TO STRUGGLE AT
TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES LEADING TO
DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE OVERALL THEME IS
WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE CONUS...WITH AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SYNOPTIC
SNOWS ROUGHLY EVERY TWO DAYS...WITH FRIDAY...SUNDAY...AND NEXT
TUESDAY FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS BEGINNING
IN SRN NH THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS NRN NH AND WRN ME EARLY TUE.
SNWFL RATES OF 2 INCHES OR MORE PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY TUE. STRONG NELY WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS...REACHING UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SNWFL WILL CONTINUE INTO
WED...WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...

WED...AREAS OF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. NW WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

FRI...AREAS OF MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL TURN NELY AND GRADUALLY BUILD
TODAY. TONIGHT INTO TUE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE DRAMATICALLY.
STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON ALL WATERS...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 25-30 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF HURRICANE FORCE TUE...ESPECIALLY ON THE HIGHER
PLATFORMS OF MISM1 AND IOSN3.

LONG TERM...

WED...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

FRI...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RELATIVELY LOW IN THE ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE HOWEVER
PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET
OFFSHORE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING AROUND THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. BEACH EROSION AND SPLASHOVER ARE LIKELY. AT
PORTLAND HIGH TIDE IS 10.0 FT AT 420AM TUESDAY...9.1FT AT 453PM
TUESDAY...AND 9.8FT AT 523AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261121
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
621 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING.
DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

620 AM UPDATE...

VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS....EXCEPT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE
IT WAS IN THE 20S.  THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE COASTAL FRONT THAT
WILL SET UP INTO TUESDAY.  RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS...BUT AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY SO PRECIP NOT REACHING THE
GROUND.  MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BREAK OUT LATER
THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND AREAS SOUTH OF THE PIKE...BUT THE
STEADIER SNOW WILL WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

MODEST AND COLD HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS QC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. WITH DRIER AND COLDER AIR GRADUALLY PULLING N. HOWEVER...IT
IS THANKS TO THIS BLOCK...AND THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE THAN THERE
WAS WITH THE WEEKEND STORM...THAT WILL ALLOW LOW PRES...NEWLY
DEVELOPING OFF THE VA/NC COASTLINE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND SLOW AS
IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK BY THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH LIGHT ECHOS ARE ALREADY APPARENT S OF LI THIS
MORNING...THE DRY AIR IN PLACE WHERE DWPT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15F
WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF THE INITIAL ECHOS FROM REACHING THE
SFC...LOCKING THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE...AND HOLDING OFF SNOWFALL
UNTIL MAINLY THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. QPF IS LIGHT
DURING THIS TIME...SO ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A
COUPLE INCHES OR LESS.

THE ONLY CAVEAT THOUGH...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY HEAVIER
SNOWS ALONG AND NEAR THE E COAST OF MA. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALLS...DEVELOPING OFF OF THE COLD GULF OF MAINE
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE. THIS MAY ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES DURING
THE EARLIER COMMUTE AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING STORM...SO AREAS IN THE
BOS METRO AND N AND S SHORES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE
MORNING AS MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THESE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
NOT LONG AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*** POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM RAMPS UP TONIGHT ***

* BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A HISTORICAL BLIZZARD IMPACTING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN THERE ARE NOT SOME MESOSCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE APPROACHES. AT
ISSUE AT THIS POINT...ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE FINAL LOW PRES DEPTH
PRIOR TO THE OCCLUSION PROCESS RANGING FROM 978 HPA ON THE NAM/CMC
TO 984 ON THE GFS. AT ODDS ALSO...IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO
DISTINCT BANDED SNOW FEATURES...THE FIRST...A LONG AND SIGNIFICANT
DEFORMATION/F-GEN BAND STRETCHING FROM COASTAL MAIN INTO INTERIOR
SRN NEW ENGLAND...THE TIP OF WHICH COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE
CT VALLEY TO METRO-WEST AND THE MERRIMACK VALLEY. AVAILABLE WRF
OUTPUTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HERE...WITH THE NMM FURTHER W WITH
THE HEAVIER BANDING...WHILE THE ARW IS SUGGESTING THE E. THE OTHER
AREA WILL LIKELY BE FORM CENTRAL RI THROUGH ABOUT THE S SHORE/BOS
METRO OF MASS AS A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS AND WAVERS INLAND. SO IT
IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE TWO BULLSEYES OF SNOW
TOTALS TO WATCH...WHERE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO EXCEED 2
FT. FINALLY...THIS BANDING LOCATION WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON
FINAL TRACK...WHICH ARE STILL IN SOME MESO-SCALE DISPUTE WITH THE
GFS REMAINING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
WHILE THE ECWMF/NAM ARE JUST INSIDE AND MUCH SLOWER...STALLING THE
LOW PRES ONLY ABOUT 50 NM SE OF ACK. THEREFORE...THE BANDING AND
AXIS OF 2.5-3.0 INCH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO WAVER A
BIT...AND WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED AS THE EVENT IS UNFOLDING. WILL
TRY TO SHOW THIS TWO-BULLSEYE SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT WITH THIS
UPDATE...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE HIGH IMPACT STORM ACROSS ALL
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHOLESALE CHANGES WILL NOTE BE MADE.

DETAILS/IMPACTS...

PRECIP TYPE...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCE OF A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
BRIEFLY ESPECIALLY FOR ACK...WITH THE H92 0C LINE INCHING CLOSE
/BUT STAYING MAINLY S WITH THE 00Z RUNS/. NAM IS COLDEST WHILE
ECMWF REMAINS THE COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. GIVEN THE
SLIGHT COOLING SHIFT OF RECENT RUNS AND EXAMINING BUFKIT PROFILES
AND BASED ON IMPACT POTENTIAL...WILL BE UPGRADING ACK TO A WINTER
STORM WATCH THIS THIS UPDATE...AS INITIAL SNOW...FOLLOWED BY BACK
END AFTER THE POTENTIAL CHANGEOVER...COULD STILL EXCEED WARNING
CRITERIA.

TOTAL SNOWFALL/BLIZZARD...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE..WE ARE ALREADY NOTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
THE N AND S SHORES /BOS METRO ALSO/ AROUND THE TIME OF AFTERNOON
RUSH. GIVEN THE STORM PREP...IT/S POSSIBLE MORE COULD BE ON THE
ROAD. THEREFORE...MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME MODEST ACCUMULATIONS
BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVES UP FROM THE SW BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z. BY 00Z IT SHOULD BE SNOWING...ALTHOUGH LIGHTLY TO START
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY TOTALS LIKELY
FALLING BELOW AN INCH OR TWO.

AS STATED THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO BANDING LOCATIONS...ONE
FROM TYPICAL MID-LVL DEFORMATION AND NEGATIVE EPV...WITH THE OTHER
CLOSER TO THE SFC INVOF OF THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS RI-SE MA OR
NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WHILE NAILING THESE DOWN IS DIFFICULT
ALMOST 24 HOURS OUT...MESOSCALE MODELS DO AT THE VERY LEAST
INDICATE THAT WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS...DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR A MAXIMUM AND WITH BANDS OF VERY NEGATIVE EPV...2-3
IN/HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS ARE LIKELY
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING WELL INTO THE DAY ON TUE
AS THESE BANDS SLOWLY PIVOT AND BEGIN A SLOW SHIFT TO THE E. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT...THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT A FOOT IN 6 HOURS OR EVEN LESS.

THEREFORE...FEEL THE MENTION OF 2+ FT OF TOTAL SNOWFALL ACROSS
INTERIOR TO E MA/RI AND EVEN NRN CT IS POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW
SPOTS APPROACHING 3 FT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. REGARDING THE
BLIZZARDS...BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES STILL SUPPORT WINDS NEAR BLIZZ
CRITERIA ALONG WITH THIS POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS WITHIN THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNINGS...SO NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE CHANCE FOR LOWER SN RATIOS NEARER TO THE COASTAL FRONT
LOCATIONS...COLOCATED WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PORTIONS OF SE MA /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST/ FOR THE HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES. HIGHER RATIOS FURTHER INLAND
/COLDER AIR/ ARE EXPECTED.

IT APPEARS OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY DELAY THE END TIME
ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE S SHORE...SE MA AND E RI LATE TUE
INTO WED...WHICH MAY SNOW UNTIL AFTER NOON ON WED. HOWEVER...BY
TUE NIGHT...EXPECT SLOWLY DIMINISHING SNOWFALL RATES FROM W TO E.

WINDS...
GFS HAS BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE LLJ...NOW SUPPORTING 65 KT AT
H92 FROM SRN RI THROUGH BOS AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...NAM/ECMWF
CONTINUE LEAN CLOSER TO 70-80 KT. BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF THIS MOMENTUM BEING MIXED ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COASTLINES. THEREFORE...CAN STILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING HURRICANE VELOCITY NEAR THE SHORE...PARTICULARLY THE
OUTER ARM OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET ALTHOUGH THIS TAPERS
INLAND...STILL COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS 50-60 MPH AS FAR INLAND
AS RI AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WHERE THIS
COINCIDES WITH LOWER RATIO /MORE WATER LADEN/ SNOW...COULD PRODUCE
MORE TREE DAMAGE AND THEREFORE POTENTIALLY MORE POWER OUTAGES.

COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR MORE ON THIS...PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END WED MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WED NIGHT AND WITH DEEP SNOW PACK IN
PLACE/DIMINISHING WIND SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
FRI.  THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.  IF THE ENERGY ENDS
UP GOING NORTH OF US WILL JUST HAVE A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS.  A
TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW.  IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 21Z TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.  VFR REMAINS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING...AT WHICH POINT
A SLOW DIP WITH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE S. SNOWS
MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT 18-21Z...BUT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES BREAK OUT A BIT EARLIER.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEGIN
TO DIP FROM MVFR TO VLIFR WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AIRPORTS REACHING
MINIMUMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING TUE. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
HEAVY-BLOWING SNOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AIRPORTS SEEING
2-3 INCH OR MORE PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...40-50 MPH INLAND AT TIMES...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 70-80 MPH WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. ASIDE FROM THIS...LLWS IS LIKELY AS WINDS AT 2KFT ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 70-80 KT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT AND/OR FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY
FRI.  DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

*** A PERIOD OF HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE TUE AM ***

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN
PLACE FOR THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH TO SPLASH OVER
SEAS WALLS FOR OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY
PRONE TO IT. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS...WAVE RUNUP AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A
STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST
AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE STILL 25
TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THE EXACT TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS /GUSTS TO 70 KT POSSIBLE!/ AND SURGE...WHICH APPEAR TO OCCUR
AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE LATE TUE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. GIVEN THE
TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW TIDE AND HIGH TIDE IS ONLY 6 HRS THERE
ISN/T MUCH MARGIN FOR ERROR HERE. IF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE
COINCIDE WITH ONE OF THESE HIGH TIDES MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING WOULD
OCCUR.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...DOODY/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261121
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
621 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING.
DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

620 AM UPDATE...

VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS....EXCEPT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE
IT WAS IN THE 20S.  THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE COASTAL FRONT THAT
WILL SET UP INTO TUESDAY.  RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS...BUT AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY SO PRECIP NOT REACHING THE
GROUND.  MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BREAK OUT LATER
THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND AREAS SOUTH OF THE PIKE...BUT THE
STEADIER SNOW WILL WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

MODEST AND COLD HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS QC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. WITH DRIER AND COLDER AIR GRADUALLY PULLING N. HOWEVER...IT
IS THANKS TO THIS BLOCK...AND THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE THAN THERE
WAS WITH THE WEEKEND STORM...THAT WILL ALLOW LOW PRES...NEWLY
DEVELOPING OFF THE VA/NC COASTLINE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND SLOW AS
IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK BY THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH LIGHT ECHOS ARE ALREADY APPARENT S OF LI THIS
MORNING...THE DRY AIR IN PLACE WHERE DWPT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15F
WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF THE INITIAL ECHOS FROM REACHING THE
SFC...LOCKING THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE...AND HOLDING OFF SNOWFALL
UNTIL MAINLY THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. QPF IS LIGHT
DURING THIS TIME...SO ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A
COUPLE INCHES OR LESS.

THE ONLY CAVEAT THOUGH...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY HEAVIER
SNOWS ALONG AND NEAR THE E COAST OF MA. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALLS...DEVELOPING OFF OF THE COLD GULF OF MAINE
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE. THIS MAY ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES DURING
THE EARLIER COMMUTE AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING STORM...SO AREAS IN THE
BOS METRO AND N AND S SHORES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE
MORNING AS MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THESE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
NOT LONG AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*** POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM RAMPS UP TONIGHT ***

* BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A HISTORICAL BLIZZARD IMPACTING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN THERE ARE NOT SOME MESOSCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE APPROACHES. AT
ISSUE AT THIS POINT...ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE FINAL LOW PRES DEPTH
PRIOR TO THE OCCLUSION PROCESS RANGING FROM 978 HPA ON THE NAM/CMC
TO 984 ON THE GFS. AT ODDS ALSO...IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO
DISTINCT BANDED SNOW FEATURES...THE FIRST...A LONG AND SIGNIFICANT
DEFORMATION/F-GEN BAND STRETCHING FROM COASTAL MAIN INTO INTERIOR
SRN NEW ENGLAND...THE TIP OF WHICH COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE
CT VALLEY TO METRO-WEST AND THE MERRIMACK VALLEY. AVAILABLE WRF
OUTPUTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HERE...WITH THE NMM FURTHER W WITH
THE HEAVIER BANDING...WHILE THE ARW IS SUGGESTING THE E. THE OTHER
AREA WILL LIKELY BE FORM CENTRAL RI THROUGH ABOUT THE S SHORE/BOS
METRO OF MASS AS A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS AND WAVERS INLAND. SO IT
IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE TWO BULLSEYES OF SNOW
TOTALS TO WATCH...WHERE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO EXCEED 2
FT. FINALLY...THIS BANDING LOCATION WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON
FINAL TRACK...WHICH ARE STILL IN SOME MESO-SCALE DISPUTE WITH THE
GFS REMAINING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
WHILE THE ECWMF/NAM ARE JUST INSIDE AND MUCH SLOWER...STALLING THE
LOW PRES ONLY ABOUT 50 NM SE OF ACK. THEREFORE...THE BANDING AND
AXIS OF 2.5-3.0 INCH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO WAVER A
BIT...AND WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED AS THE EVENT IS UNFOLDING. WILL
TRY TO SHOW THIS TWO-BULLSEYE SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT WITH THIS
UPDATE...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE HIGH IMPACT STORM ACROSS ALL
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHOLESALE CHANGES WILL NOTE BE MADE.

DETAILS/IMPACTS...

PRECIP TYPE...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCE OF A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
BRIEFLY ESPECIALLY FOR ACK...WITH THE H92 0C LINE INCHING CLOSE
/BUT STAYING MAINLY S WITH THE 00Z RUNS/. NAM IS COLDEST WHILE
ECMWF REMAINS THE COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. GIVEN THE
SLIGHT COOLING SHIFT OF RECENT RUNS AND EXAMINING BUFKIT PROFILES
AND BASED ON IMPACT POTENTIAL...WILL BE UPGRADING ACK TO A WINTER
STORM WATCH THIS THIS UPDATE...AS INITIAL SNOW...FOLLOWED BY BACK
END AFTER THE POTENTIAL CHANGEOVER...COULD STILL EXCEED WARNING
CRITERIA.

TOTAL SNOWFALL/BLIZZARD...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE..WE ARE ALREADY NOTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
THE N AND S SHORES /BOS METRO ALSO/ AROUND THE TIME OF AFTERNOON
RUSH. GIVEN THE STORM PREP...IT/S POSSIBLE MORE COULD BE ON THE
ROAD. THEREFORE...MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME MODEST ACCUMULATIONS
BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVES UP FROM THE SW BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z. BY 00Z IT SHOULD BE SNOWING...ALTHOUGH LIGHTLY TO START
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY TOTALS LIKELY
FALLING BELOW AN INCH OR TWO.

AS STATED THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO BANDING LOCATIONS...ONE
FROM TYPICAL MID-LVL DEFORMATION AND NEGATIVE EPV...WITH THE OTHER
CLOSER TO THE SFC INVOF OF THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS RI-SE MA OR
NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WHILE NAILING THESE DOWN IS DIFFICULT
ALMOST 24 HOURS OUT...MESOSCALE MODELS DO AT THE VERY LEAST
INDICATE THAT WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS...DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR A MAXIMUM AND WITH BANDS OF VERY NEGATIVE EPV...2-3
IN/HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS ARE LIKELY
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING WELL INTO THE DAY ON TUE
AS THESE BANDS SLOWLY PIVOT AND BEGIN A SLOW SHIFT TO THE E. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT...THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT A FOOT IN 6 HOURS OR EVEN LESS.

THEREFORE...FEEL THE MENTION OF 2+ FT OF TOTAL SNOWFALL ACROSS
INTERIOR TO E MA/RI AND EVEN NRN CT IS POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW
SPOTS APPROACHING 3 FT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. REGARDING THE
BLIZZARDS...BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES STILL SUPPORT WINDS NEAR BLIZZ
CRITERIA ALONG WITH THIS POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS WITHIN THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNINGS...SO NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE CHANCE FOR LOWER SN RATIOS NEARER TO THE COASTAL FRONT
LOCATIONS...COLOCATED WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PORTIONS OF SE MA /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST/ FOR THE HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES. HIGHER RATIOS FURTHER INLAND
/COLDER AIR/ ARE EXPECTED.

IT APPEARS OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY DELAY THE END TIME
ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE S SHORE...SE MA AND E RI LATE TUE
INTO WED...WHICH MAY SNOW UNTIL AFTER NOON ON WED. HOWEVER...BY
TUE NIGHT...EXPECT SLOWLY DIMINISHING SNOWFALL RATES FROM W TO E.

WINDS...
GFS HAS BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE LLJ...NOW SUPPORTING 65 KT AT
H92 FROM SRN RI THROUGH BOS AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...NAM/ECMWF
CONTINUE LEAN CLOSER TO 70-80 KT. BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF THIS MOMENTUM BEING MIXED ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COASTLINES. THEREFORE...CAN STILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING HURRICANE VELOCITY NEAR THE SHORE...PARTICULARLY THE
OUTER ARM OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET ALTHOUGH THIS TAPERS
INLAND...STILL COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS 50-60 MPH AS FAR INLAND
AS RI AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WHERE THIS
COINCIDES WITH LOWER RATIO /MORE WATER LADEN/ SNOW...COULD PRODUCE
MORE TREE DAMAGE AND THEREFORE POTENTIALLY MORE POWER OUTAGES.

COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR MORE ON THIS...PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END WED MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WED NIGHT AND WITH DEEP SNOW PACK IN
PLACE/DIMINISHING WIND SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
FRI.  THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.  IF THE ENERGY ENDS
UP GOING NORTH OF US WILL JUST HAVE A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS.  A
TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW.  IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 21Z TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.  VFR REMAINS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING...AT WHICH POINT
A SLOW DIP WITH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE S. SNOWS
MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT 18-21Z...BUT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES BREAK OUT A BIT EARLIER.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEGIN
TO DIP FROM MVFR TO VLIFR WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AIRPORTS REACHING
MINIMUMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING TUE. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
HEAVY-BLOWING SNOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AIRPORTS SEEING
2-3 INCH OR MORE PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...40-50 MPH INLAND AT TIMES...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 70-80 MPH WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. ASIDE FROM THIS...LLWS IS LIKELY AS WINDS AT 2KFT ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 70-80 KT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT AND/OR FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY
FRI.  DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

*** A PERIOD OF HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE TUE AM ***

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN
PLACE FOR THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH TO SPLASH OVER
SEAS WALLS FOR OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY
PRONE TO IT. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS...WAVE RUNUP AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A
STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST
AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE STILL 25
TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THE EXACT TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS /GUSTS TO 70 KT POSSIBLE!/ AND SURGE...WHICH APPEAR TO OCCUR
AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE LATE TUE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. GIVEN THE
TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW TIDE AND HIGH TIDE IS ONLY 6 HRS THERE
ISN/T MUCH MARGIN FOR ERROR HERE. IF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE
COINCIDE WITH ONE OF THESE HIGH TIDES MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING WOULD
OCCUR.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...DOODY/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261121
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
621 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING.
DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

620 AM UPDATE...

VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS....EXCEPT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE
IT WAS IN THE 20S.  THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE COASTAL FRONT THAT
WILL SET UP INTO TUESDAY.  RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS...BUT AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY SO PRECIP NOT REACHING THE
GROUND.  MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BREAK OUT LATER
THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND AREAS SOUTH OF THE PIKE...BUT THE
STEADIER SNOW WILL WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

MODEST AND COLD HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS QC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. WITH DRIER AND COLDER AIR GRADUALLY PULLING N. HOWEVER...IT
IS THANKS TO THIS BLOCK...AND THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE THAN THERE
WAS WITH THE WEEKEND STORM...THAT WILL ALLOW LOW PRES...NEWLY
DEVELOPING OFF THE VA/NC COASTLINE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND SLOW AS
IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK BY THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH LIGHT ECHOS ARE ALREADY APPARENT S OF LI THIS
MORNING...THE DRY AIR IN PLACE WHERE DWPT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15F
WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF THE INITIAL ECHOS FROM REACHING THE
SFC...LOCKING THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE...AND HOLDING OFF SNOWFALL
UNTIL MAINLY THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. QPF IS LIGHT
DURING THIS TIME...SO ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A
COUPLE INCHES OR LESS.

THE ONLY CAVEAT THOUGH...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY HEAVIER
SNOWS ALONG AND NEAR THE E COAST OF MA. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALLS...DEVELOPING OFF OF THE COLD GULF OF MAINE
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE. THIS MAY ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES DURING
THE EARLIER COMMUTE AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING STORM...SO AREAS IN THE
BOS METRO AND N AND S SHORES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE
MORNING AS MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THESE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
NOT LONG AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*** POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM RAMPS UP TONIGHT ***

* BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A HISTORICAL BLIZZARD IMPACTING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN THERE ARE NOT SOME MESOSCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE APPROACHES. AT
ISSUE AT THIS POINT...ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE FINAL LOW PRES DEPTH
PRIOR TO THE OCCLUSION PROCESS RANGING FROM 978 HPA ON THE NAM/CMC
TO 984 ON THE GFS. AT ODDS ALSO...IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO
DISTINCT BANDED SNOW FEATURES...THE FIRST...A LONG AND SIGNIFICANT
DEFORMATION/F-GEN BAND STRETCHING FROM COASTAL MAIN INTO INTERIOR
SRN NEW ENGLAND...THE TIP OF WHICH COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE
CT VALLEY TO METRO-WEST AND THE MERRIMACK VALLEY. AVAILABLE WRF
OUTPUTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HERE...WITH THE NMM FURTHER W WITH
THE HEAVIER BANDING...WHILE THE ARW IS SUGGESTING THE E. THE OTHER
AREA WILL LIKELY BE FORM CENTRAL RI THROUGH ABOUT THE S SHORE/BOS
METRO OF MASS AS A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS AND WAVERS INLAND. SO IT
IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE TWO BULLSEYES OF SNOW
TOTALS TO WATCH...WHERE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO EXCEED 2
FT. FINALLY...THIS BANDING LOCATION WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON
FINAL TRACK...WHICH ARE STILL IN SOME MESO-SCALE DISPUTE WITH THE
GFS REMAINING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
WHILE THE ECWMF/NAM ARE JUST INSIDE AND MUCH SLOWER...STALLING THE
LOW PRES ONLY ABOUT 50 NM SE OF ACK. THEREFORE...THE BANDING AND
AXIS OF 2.5-3.0 INCH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO WAVER A
BIT...AND WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED AS THE EVENT IS UNFOLDING. WILL
TRY TO SHOW THIS TWO-BULLSEYE SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT WITH THIS
UPDATE...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE HIGH IMPACT STORM ACROSS ALL
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHOLESALE CHANGES WILL NOTE BE MADE.

DETAILS/IMPACTS...

PRECIP TYPE...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCE OF A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
BRIEFLY ESPECIALLY FOR ACK...WITH THE H92 0C LINE INCHING CLOSE
/BUT STAYING MAINLY S WITH THE 00Z RUNS/. NAM IS COLDEST WHILE
ECMWF REMAINS THE COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. GIVEN THE
SLIGHT COOLING SHIFT OF RECENT RUNS AND EXAMINING BUFKIT PROFILES
AND BASED ON IMPACT POTENTIAL...WILL BE UPGRADING ACK TO A WINTER
STORM WATCH THIS THIS UPDATE...AS INITIAL SNOW...FOLLOWED BY BACK
END AFTER THE POTENTIAL CHANGEOVER...COULD STILL EXCEED WARNING
CRITERIA.

TOTAL SNOWFALL/BLIZZARD...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE..WE ARE ALREADY NOTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
THE N AND S SHORES /BOS METRO ALSO/ AROUND THE TIME OF AFTERNOON
RUSH. GIVEN THE STORM PREP...IT/S POSSIBLE MORE COULD BE ON THE
ROAD. THEREFORE...MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME MODEST ACCUMULATIONS
BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVES UP FROM THE SW BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z. BY 00Z IT SHOULD BE SNOWING...ALTHOUGH LIGHTLY TO START
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY TOTALS LIKELY
FALLING BELOW AN INCH OR TWO.

AS STATED THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO BANDING LOCATIONS...ONE
FROM TYPICAL MID-LVL DEFORMATION AND NEGATIVE EPV...WITH THE OTHER
CLOSER TO THE SFC INVOF OF THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS RI-SE MA OR
NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WHILE NAILING THESE DOWN IS DIFFICULT
ALMOST 24 HOURS OUT...MESOSCALE MODELS DO AT THE VERY LEAST
INDICATE THAT WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS...DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR A MAXIMUM AND WITH BANDS OF VERY NEGATIVE EPV...2-3
IN/HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS ARE LIKELY
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING WELL INTO THE DAY ON TUE
AS THESE BANDS SLOWLY PIVOT AND BEGIN A SLOW SHIFT TO THE E. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT...THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT A FOOT IN 6 HOURS OR EVEN LESS.

THEREFORE...FEEL THE MENTION OF 2+ FT OF TOTAL SNOWFALL ACROSS
INTERIOR TO E MA/RI AND EVEN NRN CT IS POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW
SPOTS APPROACHING 3 FT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. REGARDING THE
BLIZZARDS...BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES STILL SUPPORT WINDS NEAR BLIZZ
CRITERIA ALONG WITH THIS POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS WITHIN THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNINGS...SO NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE CHANCE FOR LOWER SN RATIOS NEARER TO THE COASTAL FRONT
LOCATIONS...COLOCATED WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PORTIONS OF SE MA /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST/ FOR THE HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES. HIGHER RATIOS FURTHER INLAND
/COLDER AIR/ ARE EXPECTED.

IT APPEARS OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY DELAY THE END TIME
ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE S SHORE...SE MA AND E RI LATE TUE
INTO WED...WHICH MAY SNOW UNTIL AFTER NOON ON WED. HOWEVER...BY
TUE NIGHT...EXPECT SLOWLY DIMINISHING SNOWFALL RATES FROM W TO E.

WINDS...
GFS HAS BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE LLJ...NOW SUPPORTING 65 KT AT
H92 FROM SRN RI THROUGH BOS AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...NAM/ECMWF
CONTINUE LEAN CLOSER TO 70-80 KT. BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF THIS MOMENTUM BEING MIXED ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COASTLINES. THEREFORE...CAN STILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING HURRICANE VELOCITY NEAR THE SHORE...PARTICULARLY THE
OUTER ARM OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET ALTHOUGH THIS TAPERS
INLAND...STILL COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS 50-60 MPH AS FAR INLAND
AS RI AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WHERE THIS
COINCIDES WITH LOWER RATIO /MORE WATER LADEN/ SNOW...COULD PRODUCE
MORE TREE DAMAGE AND THEREFORE POTENTIALLY MORE POWER OUTAGES.

COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR MORE ON THIS...PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END WED MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WED NIGHT AND WITH DEEP SNOW PACK IN
PLACE/DIMINISHING WIND SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
FRI.  THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.  IF THE ENERGY ENDS
UP GOING NORTH OF US WILL JUST HAVE A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS.  A
TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW.  IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 21Z TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.  VFR REMAINS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING...AT WHICH POINT
A SLOW DIP WITH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE S. SNOWS
MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT 18-21Z...BUT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES BREAK OUT A BIT EARLIER.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEGIN
TO DIP FROM MVFR TO VLIFR WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AIRPORTS REACHING
MINIMUMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING TUE. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
HEAVY-BLOWING SNOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AIRPORTS SEEING
2-3 INCH OR MORE PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...40-50 MPH INLAND AT TIMES...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 70-80 MPH WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. ASIDE FROM THIS...LLWS IS LIKELY AS WINDS AT 2KFT ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 70-80 KT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT AND/OR FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY
FRI.  DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

*** A PERIOD OF HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE TUE AM ***

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN
PLACE FOR THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH TO SPLASH OVER
SEAS WALLS FOR OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY
PRONE TO IT. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS...WAVE RUNUP AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A
STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST
AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE STILL 25
TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THE EXACT TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS /GUSTS TO 70 KT POSSIBLE!/ AND SURGE...WHICH APPEAR TO OCCUR
AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE LATE TUE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. GIVEN THE
TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW TIDE AND HIGH TIDE IS ONLY 6 HRS THERE
ISN/T MUCH MARGIN FOR ERROR HERE. IF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE
COINCIDE WITH ONE OF THESE HIGH TIDES MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING WOULD
OCCUR.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...DOODY/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261121
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
621 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING.
DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

620 AM UPDATE...

VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS....EXCEPT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE
IT WAS IN THE 20S.  THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE COASTAL FRONT THAT
WILL SET UP INTO TUESDAY.  RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS...BUT AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY SO PRECIP NOT REACHING THE
GROUND.  MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BREAK OUT LATER
THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND AREAS SOUTH OF THE PIKE...BUT THE
STEADIER SNOW WILL WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

MODEST AND COLD HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS QC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. WITH DRIER AND COLDER AIR GRADUALLY PULLING N. HOWEVER...IT
IS THANKS TO THIS BLOCK...AND THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE THAN THERE
WAS WITH THE WEEKEND STORM...THAT WILL ALLOW LOW PRES...NEWLY
DEVELOPING OFF THE VA/NC COASTLINE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND SLOW AS
IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK BY THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH LIGHT ECHOS ARE ALREADY APPARENT S OF LI THIS
MORNING...THE DRY AIR IN PLACE WHERE DWPT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15F
WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF THE INITIAL ECHOS FROM REACHING THE
SFC...LOCKING THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE...AND HOLDING OFF SNOWFALL
UNTIL MAINLY THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. QPF IS LIGHT
DURING THIS TIME...SO ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A
COUPLE INCHES OR LESS.

THE ONLY CAVEAT THOUGH...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY HEAVIER
SNOWS ALONG AND NEAR THE E COAST OF MA. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALLS...DEVELOPING OFF OF THE COLD GULF OF MAINE
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE. THIS MAY ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES DURING
THE EARLIER COMMUTE AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING STORM...SO AREAS IN THE
BOS METRO AND N AND S SHORES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE
MORNING AS MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THESE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
NOT LONG AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*** POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM RAMPS UP TONIGHT ***

* BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A HISTORICAL BLIZZARD IMPACTING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN THERE ARE NOT SOME MESOSCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE APPROACHES. AT
ISSUE AT THIS POINT...ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE FINAL LOW PRES DEPTH
PRIOR TO THE OCCLUSION PROCESS RANGING FROM 978 HPA ON THE NAM/CMC
TO 984 ON THE GFS. AT ODDS ALSO...IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO
DISTINCT BANDED SNOW FEATURES...THE FIRST...A LONG AND SIGNIFICANT
DEFORMATION/F-GEN BAND STRETCHING FROM COASTAL MAIN INTO INTERIOR
SRN NEW ENGLAND...THE TIP OF WHICH COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE
CT VALLEY TO METRO-WEST AND THE MERRIMACK VALLEY. AVAILABLE WRF
OUTPUTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HERE...WITH THE NMM FURTHER W WITH
THE HEAVIER BANDING...WHILE THE ARW IS SUGGESTING THE E. THE OTHER
AREA WILL LIKELY BE FORM CENTRAL RI THROUGH ABOUT THE S SHORE/BOS
METRO OF MASS AS A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS AND WAVERS INLAND. SO IT
IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE TWO BULLSEYES OF SNOW
TOTALS TO WATCH...WHERE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO EXCEED 2
FT. FINALLY...THIS BANDING LOCATION WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON
FINAL TRACK...WHICH ARE STILL IN SOME MESO-SCALE DISPUTE WITH THE
GFS REMAINING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
WHILE THE ECWMF/NAM ARE JUST INSIDE AND MUCH SLOWER...STALLING THE
LOW PRES ONLY ABOUT 50 NM SE OF ACK. THEREFORE...THE BANDING AND
AXIS OF 2.5-3.0 INCH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO WAVER A
BIT...AND WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED AS THE EVENT IS UNFOLDING. WILL
TRY TO SHOW THIS TWO-BULLSEYE SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT WITH THIS
UPDATE...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE HIGH IMPACT STORM ACROSS ALL
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHOLESALE CHANGES WILL NOTE BE MADE.

DETAILS/IMPACTS...

PRECIP TYPE...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCE OF A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
BRIEFLY ESPECIALLY FOR ACK...WITH THE H92 0C LINE INCHING CLOSE
/BUT STAYING MAINLY S WITH THE 00Z RUNS/. NAM IS COLDEST WHILE
ECMWF REMAINS THE COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. GIVEN THE
SLIGHT COOLING SHIFT OF RECENT RUNS AND EXAMINING BUFKIT PROFILES
AND BASED ON IMPACT POTENTIAL...WILL BE UPGRADING ACK TO A WINTER
STORM WATCH THIS THIS UPDATE...AS INITIAL SNOW...FOLLOWED BY BACK
END AFTER THE POTENTIAL CHANGEOVER...COULD STILL EXCEED WARNING
CRITERIA.

TOTAL SNOWFALL/BLIZZARD...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE..WE ARE ALREADY NOTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
THE N AND S SHORES /BOS METRO ALSO/ AROUND THE TIME OF AFTERNOON
RUSH. GIVEN THE STORM PREP...IT/S POSSIBLE MORE COULD BE ON THE
ROAD. THEREFORE...MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME MODEST ACCUMULATIONS
BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVES UP FROM THE SW BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z. BY 00Z IT SHOULD BE SNOWING...ALTHOUGH LIGHTLY TO START
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY TOTALS LIKELY
FALLING BELOW AN INCH OR TWO.

AS STATED THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO BANDING LOCATIONS...ONE
FROM TYPICAL MID-LVL DEFORMATION AND NEGATIVE EPV...WITH THE OTHER
CLOSER TO THE SFC INVOF OF THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS RI-SE MA OR
NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WHILE NAILING THESE DOWN IS DIFFICULT
ALMOST 24 HOURS OUT...MESOSCALE MODELS DO AT THE VERY LEAST
INDICATE THAT WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS...DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR A MAXIMUM AND WITH BANDS OF VERY NEGATIVE EPV...2-3
IN/HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS ARE LIKELY
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING WELL INTO THE DAY ON TUE
AS THESE BANDS SLOWLY PIVOT AND BEGIN A SLOW SHIFT TO THE E. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT...THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT A FOOT IN 6 HOURS OR EVEN LESS.

THEREFORE...FEEL THE MENTION OF 2+ FT OF TOTAL SNOWFALL ACROSS
INTERIOR TO E MA/RI AND EVEN NRN CT IS POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW
SPOTS APPROACHING 3 FT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. REGARDING THE
BLIZZARDS...BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES STILL SUPPORT WINDS NEAR BLIZZ
CRITERIA ALONG WITH THIS POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS WITHIN THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNINGS...SO NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE CHANCE FOR LOWER SN RATIOS NEARER TO THE COASTAL FRONT
LOCATIONS...COLOCATED WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PORTIONS OF SE MA /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST/ FOR THE HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES. HIGHER RATIOS FURTHER INLAND
/COLDER AIR/ ARE EXPECTED.

IT APPEARS OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY DELAY THE END TIME
ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE S SHORE...SE MA AND E RI LATE TUE
INTO WED...WHICH MAY SNOW UNTIL AFTER NOON ON WED. HOWEVER...BY
TUE NIGHT...EXPECT SLOWLY DIMINISHING SNOWFALL RATES FROM W TO E.

WINDS...
GFS HAS BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE LLJ...NOW SUPPORTING 65 KT AT
H92 FROM SRN RI THROUGH BOS AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...NAM/ECMWF
CONTINUE LEAN CLOSER TO 70-80 KT. BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF THIS MOMENTUM BEING MIXED ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COASTLINES. THEREFORE...CAN STILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING HURRICANE VELOCITY NEAR THE SHORE...PARTICULARLY THE
OUTER ARM OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET ALTHOUGH THIS TAPERS
INLAND...STILL COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS 50-60 MPH AS FAR INLAND
AS RI AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WHERE THIS
COINCIDES WITH LOWER RATIO /MORE WATER LADEN/ SNOW...COULD PRODUCE
MORE TREE DAMAGE AND THEREFORE POTENTIALLY MORE POWER OUTAGES.

COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR MORE ON THIS...PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END WED MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WED NIGHT AND WITH DEEP SNOW PACK IN
PLACE/DIMINISHING WIND SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
FRI.  THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.  IF THE ENERGY ENDS
UP GOING NORTH OF US WILL JUST HAVE A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS.  A
TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW.  IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 21Z TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.  VFR REMAINS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING...AT WHICH POINT
A SLOW DIP WITH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE S. SNOWS
MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT 18-21Z...BUT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES BREAK OUT A BIT EARLIER.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEGIN
TO DIP FROM MVFR TO VLIFR WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AIRPORTS REACHING
MINIMUMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING TUE. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
HEAVY-BLOWING SNOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AIRPORTS SEEING
2-3 INCH OR MORE PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...40-50 MPH INLAND AT TIMES...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 70-80 MPH WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. ASIDE FROM THIS...LLWS IS LIKELY AS WINDS AT 2KFT ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 70-80 KT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT AND/OR FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY
FRI.  DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

*** A PERIOD OF HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE TUE AM ***

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN
PLACE FOR THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH TO SPLASH OVER
SEAS WALLS FOR OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY
PRONE TO IT. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS...WAVE RUNUP AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A
STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST
AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE STILL 25
TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THE EXACT TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS /GUSTS TO 70 KT POSSIBLE!/ AND SURGE...WHICH APPEAR TO OCCUR
AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE LATE TUE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. GIVEN THE
TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW TIDE AND HIGH TIDE IS ONLY 6 HRS THERE
ISN/T MUCH MARGIN FOR ERROR HERE. IF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE
COINCIDE WITH ONE OF THESE HIGH TIDES MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING WOULD
OCCUR.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...DOODY/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KGYX 260950
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
450 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
GENERALLY QUIET WX FOR MOST OF TODAY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH HIGH
PRES OVERHEAD...AND WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM THE NE THRU
THE DAY. LATE IN THE DAY SOME SN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN NH AS LOW
PRES BEGINS TO GET ORGANIZED S OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING COASTAL STORM IS SET TO
AFFECT THE REGION BEGINNING LATE TODAY THRU TUE NIGHT.

LOW PRES WILL MOVE THRU THE CAROLINAS TODAY...AND EXIT THE EAST
COAST. HERE IT WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC. LOW PRES WILL DROP SOME 20 MB IN 24
HOURS...AND TAKE A POSITION S OF NEW ENGLAND AND STALL OR SLOWLY
DRIFT TOWARDS KACK. HEADLINES REMAIN MOSTLY THE SAME...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING ERN HILLSBOROUGH BEING ADDED TO THE BLIZZARD
WARNINGS.

A DEPARTING JET STREAK IN EXCESS OF 150 KTS N OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL COMBINE WITH A SLY JET STREAK OFF THE EAST COAST IN
EXCESS OF 130 KTS TO PROVIDE A STAGE FOR RELATIVELY EXPLOSIVE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES. GFS CROSS SECTIONS THRU FORECAST AREA
FROM ROUGHLY KPWM TO KHIE SHOW INTENSE FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN A
LAYER NEAR H7. THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE SUCH THAT AGEOSTROPHIC
FORCING WILL PROVIDE STRONG LIT THRU THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
SNWFL WILL BE IDEAL AND FAIRLY EFFICIENT GIVEN THE WINDS FORECAST
ALOFT. GFS HAS THIS AXIS ALIGNED NEARLY ON TOP OF THE COASTLINE.
GIVEN THE FEATURES AVAILABLE ONE CAN INFER THAT THE ECMWF IS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NW OF THE GFS AXIS. ALTERNATIVELY...FINDING THE
AREA WITHIN THE MODELED FRONTOGENESIS AT H8 ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE DEFORMATION MAXIMUM SUPPORTS THIS ASSESSMENT OF THE ECMWF
BEING SLIGHTLY FARTHER NW WITH IDEAL SNWFL.

HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS LEFT REGARDING THIS STORM AND
THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SNWFL AMOUNTS. MODELED QPF IS
STRUGGLING TO ECLIPSE 2 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF EXTREME
SRN NH. THIS WOULD MAKE IT HARD FOR MANY AREAS TO SEE 2 FEET OF
SNWFL. IN ADDITION...OCCLUSION WILL ACT TO SHUT DOWN WAA PROCESSES
AND CUT OFF THE INTENSE LIFT NECESSARY FOR SNWFL RATES IN EXCESS
OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THESE TYPES OF RATES WILL BE NEEDED TO SEE
WIDESPREAD 20 INCH TOTALS. FINALLY...A STRONG COASTAL FNT WILL
DEVELOP. THIS WILL NOT MARK THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SNWFL AND
RA...BUT NEAR FREEZING AIR AND AIR IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
INTENSE LOW LEVEL LIFT NEAR THIS BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE SNWFL
IMMEDIATELY ON THE COLD SIDE...BUT FARTHER NW COULD SEE A BIT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERED TOTALS. FOR THESE REASON I TENDED TO KEEP
SNWFL TOTALS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...WITHOUT DRAMATIC
INCREASES. THOUGH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY COASTAL SRN NH AND THE MONADNOCKS...WHERE
STRONG ELY UPSLOPE WILL ENHANCE AMOUNTS.

THE GREATEST PERIOD OF CONCERN IS LOOK TO BE ROUGHLY 12Z TO 21Z
TUE. HERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF SNWFL AND WINDS LOOKS MOST
LIKELY. THE ECMWF HAS A 65+ KT LOW LEVEL JET AT 900 MB LIFTING NWD
ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW SOME OF THIS TO
MIX DOWN FAIRLY EASILY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SNWFL AROUND THAT
TIME...AND POTENTIALLY 45-50 KT GUSTS MIXING DOWN...BLIZZARD
WARNINGS LOOK GOOD. ELSEWHERE COULD SEE BRIEF NEAR-BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS BUT THERE WAS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXPAND...OUTSIDE
OF ERN HILLSBOROUGH. WHERE THE COMBINATION OF 1 INCH OR MORE PER
HOUR RATES AND 50 KT GUSTS OCCURS...TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE AND
LIFE THREATENING.

THE NEXT 12 HOURS WILL BE CRITICAL AS MODELS BEGIN TO HONE IN ON
THE MESOSCALE DETAILS. SOME SURPRISES ARE STILL LIKELY WITH THIS
STORM...AS THE VERY DYNAMIC EVENTS CAN CAUSE NWP TO STRUGGLE AT
TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES LEADING TO
DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE OVERALL THEME IS
WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE CONUS...WITH AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SYNOPTIC
SNOWS ROUGHLY EVERY TWO DAYS...WITH FRIDAY...SUNDAY...AND NEXT
TUESDAY FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS BEGINNING
IN SRN NH THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS NRN NH AND WRN ME EARLY TUE.
SNWFL RATES OF 2 INCHES OR MORE PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY TUE. STRONG NELY WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS...REACHING UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SNWFL WILL CONTINUE INTO
WED...WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...

WED...AREAS OF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. NW WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

FRI...AREAS OF MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL TURN NELY AND GRADUALLY BUILD
TODAY. TONIGHT INTO TUE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE DRAMATICALLY.
STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON ALL WATERS...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 25-30 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF HURRICANE FORCE TUE...ESPECIALLY ON THE HIGHER
PLATFORMS OF MISM1 AND IOSN3.

LONG TERM...

WED...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

FRI...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RELATIVELY LOW IN THE ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE HOWEVER
PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET
OFFSHORE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING AROUND THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. BEACH EROSION AND SPLASHOVER ARE LIKELY. AT
PORTLAND HIGH TIDE IS 10.0 FT AT 420AM TUESDAY...9.1FT AT 453PM
TUESDAY...AND 9.8FT AT 523AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS
AVIATION...LEGRO/SCHWIBS
MARINE...LEGRO/SCHWIBS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LEGRO/SCHWIBS




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260841
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
341 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING.
DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODEST AND COLD HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS QC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. WITH DRIER AND COLDER AIR GRADUALLY PULLING N. HOWEVER...IT
IS THANKS TO THIS BLOCK...AND THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE THAN THERE
WAS WITH THE WEEKEND STORM...THAT WILL ALLOW LOW PRES...NEWLY
DEVELOPING OFF THE VA/NC COASTLINE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND SLOW AS
IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK BY THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH LIGHT ECHOS ARE ALREADY APPARENT S OF LI THIS
MORNING...THE DRY AIR IN PLACE WHERE DWPT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15F
WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF THE INITIAL ECHOS FROM REACHING THE
SFC...LOCKING THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE...AND HOLDING OFF SNOWFALL
UNTIL MAINLY THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. QPF IS LIGHT
DURING THIS TIME...SO ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A
COUPLE INCHES OR LESS.

THE ONLY CAVEAT THOUGH...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY HEAVIER
SNOWS ALONG AND NEAR THE E COAST OF MA. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALLS...DEVELOPING OFF OF THE COLD GULF OF MAINE
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE. THIS MAY ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES DURING
THE EARLIER COMMUTE AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING STORM...SO AREAS IN THE
BOS METRO AND N AND S SHORES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE
MORNING AS MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THESE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
NOT LONG AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*** POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM RAMPS UP TONIGHT ***

* BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A HISTORICAL BLIZZARD IMPACTING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN THERE ARE NOT SOME MESOSCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE APPROACHES. AT
ISSUE AT THIS POINT...ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE FINAL LOW PRES DEPTH
PRIOR TO THE OCCLUSION PROCESS RANGING FROM 978 HPA ON THE NAM/CMC
TO 984 ON THE GFS. AT ODDS ALSO...IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO
DISTINCT BANDED SNOW FEATURES...THE FIRST...A LONG AND SIGNIFICANT
DEFORMATION/F-GEN BAND STRETCHING FROM COASTAL MAIN INTO INTERIOR
SRN NEW ENGLAND...THE TIP OF WHICH COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE
CT VALLEY TO METRO-WEST AND THE MERRIMACK VALLEY. AVAILABLE WRF
OUTPUTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HERE...WITH THE NMM FURTHER W WITH
THE HEAVIER BANDING...WHILE THE ARW IS SUGGESTING THE E. THE OTHER
AREA WILL LIKELY BE FORM CENTRAL RI THROUGH ABOUT THE S SHORE/BOS
METRO OF MASS AS A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS AND WAVERS INLAND. SO IT
IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE TWO BULLSEYES OF SNOW
TOTALS TO WATCH...WHERE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO EXCEED 2
FT. FINALLY...THIS BANDING LOCATION WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON
FINAL TRACK...WHICH ARE STILL IN SOME MESO-SCALE DISPUTE WITH THE
GFS REMAINING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
WHILE THE ECWMF/NAM ARE JUST INSIDE AND MUCH SLOWER...STALLING THE
LOW PRES ONLY ABOUT 50 NM SE OF ACK. THEREFORE...THE BANDING AND
AXIS OF 2.5-3.0 INCH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO WAVER A
BIT...AND WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED AS THE EVENT IS UNFOLDING. WILL
TRY TO SHOW THIS TWO-BULLSEYE SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT WITH THIS
UPDATE...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE HIGH IMPACT STORM ACROSS ALL
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHOLESALE CHANGES WILL NOTE BE MADE.

DETAILS/IMPACTS...

PRECIP TYPE...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCE OF A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
BRIEFLY ESPECIALLY FOR ACK...WITH THE H92 0C LINE INCHING CLOSE
/BUT STAYING MAINLY S WITH THE 00Z RUNS/. NAM IS COLDEST WHILE
ECMWF REMAINS THE COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. GIVEN THE
SLIGHT COOLING SHIFT OF RECENT RUNS AND EXAMINING BUFKIT PROFILES
AND BASED ON IMPACT POTENTIAL...WILL BE UPGRADING ACK TO A WINTER
STORM WATCH THIS THIS UPDATE...AS INITIAL SNOW...FOLLOWED BY BACK
END AFTER THE POTENTIAL CHANGEOVER...COULD STILL EXCEED WARNING
CRITERIA.

TOTAL SNOWFALL/BLIZZARD...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE..WE ARE ALREADY NOTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
THE N AND S SHORES /BOS METRO ALSO/ AROUND THE TIME OF AFTERNOON
RUSH. GIVEN THE STORM PREP...IT/S POSSIBLE MORE COULD BE ON THE
ROAD. THEREFORE...MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME MODEST ACCUMULATIONS
BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVES UP FROM THE SW BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z. BY 00Z IT SHOULD BE SNOWING...ALTHOUGH LIGHTLY TO START
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY TOTALS LIKELY
FALLING BELOW AN INCH OR TWO.

AS STATED THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO BANDING LOCATIONS...ONE
FROM TYPICAL MID-LVL DEFORMATION AND NEGATIVE EPV...WITH THE OTHER
CLOSER TO THE SFC INVOF OF THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS RI-SE MA OR
NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WHILE NAILING THESE DOWN IS DIFFICULT
ALMOST 24 HOURS OUT...MESOSCALE MODELS DO AT THE VERY LEAST
INDICATE THAT WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS...DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR A MAXIMUM AND WITH BANDS OF VERY NEGATIVE EPV...2-3
IN/HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS ARE LIKELY
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING WELL INTO THE DAY ON TUE
AS THESE BANDS SLOWLY PIVOT AND BEGIN A SLOW SHIFT TO THE E. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT...THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT A FOOT IN 6 HOURS OR EVEN LESS.

THEREFORE...FEEL THE MENTION OF 2+ FT OF TOTAL SNOWFALL ACROSS
INTERIOR TO E MA/RI AND EVEN NRN CT IS POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW
SPOTS APPROACHING 3 FT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. REGARDING THE
BLIZZARDS...BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES STILL SUPPORT WINDS NEAR BLIZZ
CRITERIA ALONG WITH THIS POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS WITHIN THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNINGS...SO NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE CHANCE FOR LOWER SN RATIOS NEARER TO THE COASTAL FRONT
LOCATIONS...COLOCATED WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PORTIONS OF SE MA /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST/ FOR THE HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES. HIGHER RATIOS FURTHER INLAND
/COLDER AIR/ ARE EXPECTED.

IT APPEARS OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY DELAY THE END TIME
ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE S SHORE...SE MA AND E RI LATE TUE
INTO WED...WHICH MAY SNOW UNTIL AFTER NOON ON WED. HOWEVER...BY
TUE NIGHT...EXPECT SLOWLY DIMINISHING SNOWFALL RATES FROM W TO E.

WINDS...
GFS HAS BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE LLJ...NOW SUPPORTING 65 KT AT
H92 FROM SRN RI THROUGH BOS AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...NAM/ECMWF
CONTINUE LEAN CLOSER TO 70-80 KT. BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF THIS MOMENTUM BEING MIXED ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COASTLINES. THEREFORE...CAN STILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING HURRICANE VELOCITY NEAR THE SHORE...PARTICULARLY THE
OUTER ARM OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET ALTHOUGH THIS TAPERS
INLAND...STILL COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS 50-60 MPH AS FAR INLAND
AS RI AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WHERE THIS
COINCIDES WITH LOWER RATIO /MORE WATER LADEN/ SNOW...COULD PRODUCE
MORE TREE DAMAGE AND THEREFORE POTENTIALLY MORE POWER OUTAGES.

COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR MORE ON THIS...PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END WED MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WED NIGHT AND WITH DEEP SNOW PACK IN
PLACE/DIMINISHING WIND SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
FRI.  THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.  IF THE ENERGY ENDS
UP GOING NORTH OF US WILL JUST HAVE A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS.  A
TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW.  IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 21Z TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
VFR REMAINS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING...AT WHICH POINT A SLOW
DIP WITH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE S. SNOWS
MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT 18-21Z...BUT WILL BE LIGHT TO START.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEGIN
TO DIP FROM MVFR TO VLIFR WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AIRPORTS REACHING
MINIMUMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING TUE. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
HEAVY-BLOWING SNOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AIRPORTS SEEING
2-3 INCH OR MORE PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...40-50 MPH INLAND AT TIMES...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 70-80 MPH WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. ASIDE FROM THIS...LLWS IS LIKELY AS WINDS AT 2KFT ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 70-80 KT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT AND/OR FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY
FRI.  DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** A PERIOD OF HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE TUE AM ***

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN
PLACE FOR THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH TO SPLASH OVER
SEAS WALLS FOR OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY
PRONE TO IT. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS...WAVE RUNUP AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A
STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST
AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE STILL 25
TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THE EXACT TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS /GUSTS TO 70 KT POSSIBLE!/ AND SURGE...WHICH APPEAR TO OCCUR
AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE LATE TUE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. GIVEN THE
TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW TIDE AND HIGH TIDE IS ONLY 6 HRS THERE
ISN/T MUCH MARGIN FOR ERROR HERE. IF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE
COINCIDE WITH ONE OF THESE HIGH TIDES MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING WOULD
OCCUR.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260841
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
341 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING.
DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODEST AND COLD HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS QC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. WITH DRIER AND COLDER AIR GRADUALLY PULLING N. HOWEVER...IT
IS THANKS TO THIS BLOCK...AND THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE THAN THERE
WAS WITH THE WEEKEND STORM...THAT WILL ALLOW LOW PRES...NEWLY
DEVELOPING OFF THE VA/NC COASTLINE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND SLOW AS
IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK BY THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH LIGHT ECHOS ARE ALREADY APPARENT S OF LI THIS
MORNING...THE DRY AIR IN PLACE WHERE DWPT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15F
WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF THE INITIAL ECHOS FROM REACHING THE
SFC...LOCKING THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE...AND HOLDING OFF SNOWFALL
UNTIL MAINLY THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. QPF IS LIGHT
DURING THIS TIME...SO ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A
COUPLE INCHES OR LESS.

THE ONLY CAVEAT THOUGH...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY HEAVIER
SNOWS ALONG AND NEAR THE E COAST OF MA. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALLS...DEVELOPING OFF OF THE COLD GULF OF MAINE
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE. THIS MAY ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES DURING
THE EARLIER COMMUTE AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING STORM...SO AREAS IN THE
BOS METRO AND N AND S SHORES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE
MORNING AS MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THESE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
NOT LONG AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*** POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM RAMPS UP TONIGHT ***

* BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A HISTORICAL BLIZZARD IMPACTING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN THERE ARE NOT SOME MESOSCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE APPROACHES. AT
ISSUE AT THIS POINT...ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE FINAL LOW PRES DEPTH
PRIOR TO THE OCCLUSION PROCESS RANGING FROM 978 HPA ON THE NAM/CMC
TO 984 ON THE GFS. AT ODDS ALSO...IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO
DISTINCT BANDED SNOW FEATURES...THE FIRST...A LONG AND SIGNIFICANT
DEFORMATION/F-GEN BAND STRETCHING FROM COASTAL MAIN INTO INTERIOR
SRN NEW ENGLAND...THE TIP OF WHICH COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE
CT VALLEY TO METRO-WEST AND THE MERRIMACK VALLEY. AVAILABLE WRF
OUTPUTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HERE...WITH THE NMM FURTHER W WITH
THE HEAVIER BANDING...WHILE THE ARW IS SUGGESTING THE E. THE OTHER
AREA WILL LIKELY BE FORM CENTRAL RI THROUGH ABOUT THE S SHORE/BOS
METRO OF MASS AS A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS AND WAVERS INLAND. SO IT
IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE TWO BULLSEYES OF SNOW
TOTALS TO WATCH...WHERE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO EXCEED 2
FT. FINALLY...THIS BANDING LOCATION WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON
FINAL TRACK...WHICH ARE STILL IN SOME MESO-SCALE DISPUTE WITH THE
GFS REMAINING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
WHILE THE ECWMF/NAM ARE JUST INSIDE AND MUCH SLOWER...STALLING THE
LOW PRES ONLY ABOUT 50 NM SE OF ACK. THEREFORE...THE BANDING AND
AXIS OF 2.5-3.0 INCH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO WAVER A
BIT...AND WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED AS THE EVENT IS UNFOLDING. WILL
TRY TO SHOW THIS TWO-BULLSEYE SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT WITH THIS
UPDATE...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE HIGH IMPACT STORM ACROSS ALL
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHOLESALE CHANGES WILL NOTE BE MADE.

DETAILS/IMPACTS...

PRECIP TYPE...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCE OF A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
BRIEFLY ESPECIALLY FOR ACK...WITH THE H92 0C LINE INCHING CLOSE
/BUT STAYING MAINLY S WITH THE 00Z RUNS/. NAM IS COLDEST WHILE
ECMWF REMAINS THE COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. GIVEN THE
SLIGHT COOLING SHIFT OF RECENT RUNS AND EXAMINING BUFKIT PROFILES
AND BASED ON IMPACT POTENTIAL...WILL BE UPGRADING ACK TO A WINTER
STORM WATCH THIS THIS UPDATE...AS INITIAL SNOW...FOLLOWED BY BACK
END AFTER THE POTENTIAL CHANGEOVER...COULD STILL EXCEED WARNING
CRITERIA.

TOTAL SNOWFALL/BLIZZARD...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE..WE ARE ALREADY NOTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
THE N AND S SHORES /BOS METRO ALSO/ AROUND THE TIME OF AFTERNOON
RUSH. GIVEN THE STORM PREP...IT/S POSSIBLE MORE COULD BE ON THE
ROAD. THEREFORE...MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME MODEST ACCUMULATIONS
BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVES UP FROM THE SW BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z. BY 00Z IT SHOULD BE SNOWING...ALTHOUGH LIGHTLY TO START
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY TOTALS LIKELY
FALLING BELOW AN INCH OR TWO.

AS STATED THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO BANDING LOCATIONS...ONE
FROM TYPICAL MID-LVL DEFORMATION AND NEGATIVE EPV...WITH THE OTHER
CLOSER TO THE SFC INVOF OF THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS RI-SE MA OR
NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WHILE NAILING THESE DOWN IS DIFFICULT
ALMOST 24 HOURS OUT...MESOSCALE MODELS DO AT THE VERY LEAST
INDICATE THAT WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS...DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR A MAXIMUM AND WITH BANDS OF VERY NEGATIVE EPV...2-3
IN/HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS ARE LIKELY
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING WELL INTO THE DAY ON TUE
AS THESE BANDS SLOWLY PIVOT AND BEGIN A SLOW SHIFT TO THE E. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT...THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT A FOOT IN 6 HOURS OR EVEN LESS.

THEREFORE...FEEL THE MENTION OF 2+ FT OF TOTAL SNOWFALL ACROSS
INTERIOR TO E MA/RI AND EVEN NRN CT IS POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW
SPOTS APPROACHING 3 FT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. REGARDING THE
BLIZZARDS...BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES STILL SUPPORT WINDS NEAR BLIZZ
CRITERIA ALONG WITH THIS POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS WITHIN THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNINGS...SO NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE CHANCE FOR LOWER SN RATIOS NEARER TO THE COASTAL FRONT
LOCATIONS...COLOCATED WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PORTIONS OF SE MA /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST/ FOR THE HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES. HIGHER RATIOS FURTHER INLAND
/COLDER AIR/ ARE EXPECTED.

IT APPEARS OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY DELAY THE END TIME
ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE S SHORE...SE MA AND E RI LATE TUE
INTO WED...WHICH MAY SNOW UNTIL AFTER NOON ON WED. HOWEVER...BY
TUE NIGHT...EXPECT SLOWLY DIMINISHING SNOWFALL RATES FROM W TO E.

WINDS...
GFS HAS BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE LLJ...NOW SUPPORTING 65 KT AT
H92 FROM SRN RI THROUGH BOS AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...NAM/ECMWF
CONTINUE LEAN CLOSER TO 70-80 KT. BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF THIS MOMENTUM BEING MIXED ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COASTLINES. THEREFORE...CAN STILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING HURRICANE VELOCITY NEAR THE SHORE...PARTICULARLY THE
OUTER ARM OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET ALTHOUGH THIS TAPERS
INLAND...STILL COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS 50-60 MPH AS FAR INLAND
AS RI AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WHERE THIS
COINCIDES WITH LOWER RATIO /MORE WATER LADEN/ SNOW...COULD PRODUCE
MORE TREE DAMAGE AND THEREFORE POTENTIALLY MORE POWER OUTAGES.

COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR MORE ON THIS...PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END WED MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WED NIGHT AND WITH DEEP SNOW PACK IN
PLACE/DIMINISHING WIND SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
FRI.  THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.  IF THE ENERGY ENDS
UP GOING NORTH OF US WILL JUST HAVE A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS.  A
TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW.  IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 21Z TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
VFR REMAINS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING...AT WHICH POINT A SLOW
DIP WITH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE S. SNOWS
MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT 18-21Z...BUT WILL BE LIGHT TO START.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEGIN
TO DIP FROM MVFR TO VLIFR WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AIRPORTS REACHING
MINIMUMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING TUE. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
HEAVY-BLOWING SNOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AIRPORTS SEEING
2-3 INCH OR MORE PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...40-50 MPH INLAND AT TIMES...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 70-80 MPH WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. ASIDE FROM THIS...LLWS IS LIKELY AS WINDS AT 2KFT ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 70-80 KT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT AND/OR FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY
FRI.  DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** A PERIOD OF HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE TUE AM ***

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN
PLACE FOR THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH TO SPLASH OVER
SEAS WALLS FOR OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY
PRONE TO IT. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS...WAVE RUNUP AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A
STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST
AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE STILL 25
TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THE EXACT TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS /GUSTS TO 70 KT POSSIBLE!/ AND SURGE...WHICH APPEAR TO OCCUR
AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE LATE TUE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. GIVEN THE
TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW TIDE AND HIGH TIDE IS ONLY 6 HRS THERE
ISN/T MUCH MARGIN FOR ERROR HERE. IF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE
COINCIDE WITH ONE OF THESE HIGH TIDES MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING WOULD
OCCUR.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260841
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
341 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING.
DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODEST AND COLD HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS QC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. WITH DRIER AND COLDER AIR GRADUALLY PULLING N. HOWEVER...IT
IS THANKS TO THIS BLOCK...AND THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE THAN THERE
WAS WITH THE WEEKEND STORM...THAT WILL ALLOW LOW PRES...NEWLY
DEVELOPING OFF THE VA/NC COASTLINE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND SLOW AS
IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK BY THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH LIGHT ECHOS ARE ALREADY APPARENT S OF LI THIS
MORNING...THE DRY AIR IN PLACE WHERE DWPT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15F
WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF THE INITIAL ECHOS FROM REACHING THE
SFC...LOCKING THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE...AND HOLDING OFF SNOWFALL
UNTIL MAINLY THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. QPF IS LIGHT
DURING THIS TIME...SO ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A
COUPLE INCHES OR LESS.

THE ONLY CAVEAT THOUGH...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY HEAVIER
SNOWS ALONG AND NEAR THE E COAST OF MA. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALLS...DEVELOPING OFF OF THE COLD GULF OF MAINE
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE. THIS MAY ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES DURING
THE EARLIER COMMUTE AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING STORM...SO AREAS IN THE
BOS METRO AND N AND S SHORES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE
MORNING AS MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THESE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
NOT LONG AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*** POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM RAMPS UP TONIGHT ***

* BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A HISTORICAL BLIZZARD IMPACTING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN THERE ARE NOT SOME MESOSCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE APPROACHES. AT
ISSUE AT THIS POINT...ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE FINAL LOW PRES DEPTH
PRIOR TO THE OCCLUSION PROCESS RANGING FROM 978 HPA ON THE NAM/CMC
TO 984 ON THE GFS. AT ODDS ALSO...IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO
DISTINCT BANDED SNOW FEATURES...THE FIRST...A LONG AND SIGNIFICANT
DEFORMATION/F-GEN BAND STRETCHING FROM COASTAL MAIN INTO INTERIOR
SRN NEW ENGLAND...THE TIP OF WHICH COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE
CT VALLEY TO METRO-WEST AND THE MERRIMACK VALLEY. AVAILABLE WRF
OUTPUTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HERE...WITH THE NMM FURTHER W WITH
THE HEAVIER BANDING...WHILE THE ARW IS SUGGESTING THE E. THE OTHER
AREA WILL LIKELY BE FORM CENTRAL RI THROUGH ABOUT THE S SHORE/BOS
METRO OF MASS AS A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS AND WAVERS INLAND. SO IT
IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE TWO BULLSEYES OF SNOW
TOTALS TO WATCH...WHERE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO EXCEED 2
FT. FINALLY...THIS BANDING LOCATION WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON
FINAL TRACK...WHICH ARE STILL IN SOME MESO-SCALE DISPUTE WITH THE
GFS REMAINING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
WHILE THE ECWMF/NAM ARE JUST INSIDE AND MUCH SLOWER...STALLING THE
LOW PRES ONLY ABOUT 50 NM SE OF ACK. THEREFORE...THE BANDING AND
AXIS OF 2.5-3.0 INCH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO WAVER A
BIT...AND WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED AS THE EVENT IS UNFOLDING. WILL
TRY TO SHOW THIS TWO-BULLSEYE SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT WITH THIS
UPDATE...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE HIGH IMPACT STORM ACROSS ALL
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHOLESALE CHANGES WILL NOTE BE MADE.

DETAILS/IMPACTS...

PRECIP TYPE...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCE OF A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
BRIEFLY ESPECIALLY FOR ACK...WITH THE H92 0C LINE INCHING CLOSE
/BUT STAYING MAINLY S WITH THE 00Z RUNS/. NAM IS COLDEST WHILE
ECMWF REMAINS THE COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. GIVEN THE
SLIGHT COOLING SHIFT OF RECENT RUNS AND EXAMINING BUFKIT PROFILES
AND BASED ON IMPACT POTENTIAL...WILL BE UPGRADING ACK TO A WINTER
STORM WATCH THIS THIS UPDATE...AS INITIAL SNOW...FOLLOWED BY BACK
END AFTER THE POTENTIAL CHANGEOVER...COULD STILL EXCEED WARNING
CRITERIA.

TOTAL SNOWFALL/BLIZZARD...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE..WE ARE ALREADY NOTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
THE N AND S SHORES /BOS METRO ALSO/ AROUND THE TIME OF AFTERNOON
RUSH. GIVEN THE STORM PREP...IT/S POSSIBLE MORE COULD BE ON THE
ROAD. THEREFORE...MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME MODEST ACCUMULATIONS
BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVES UP FROM THE SW BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z. BY 00Z IT SHOULD BE SNOWING...ALTHOUGH LIGHTLY TO START
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY TOTALS LIKELY
FALLING BELOW AN INCH OR TWO.

AS STATED THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO BANDING LOCATIONS...ONE
FROM TYPICAL MID-LVL DEFORMATION AND NEGATIVE EPV...WITH THE OTHER
CLOSER TO THE SFC INVOF OF THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS RI-SE MA OR
NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WHILE NAILING THESE DOWN IS DIFFICULT
ALMOST 24 HOURS OUT...MESOSCALE MODELS DO AT THE VERY LEAST
INDICATE THAT WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS...DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR A MAXIMUM AND WITH BANDS OF VERY NEGATIVE EPV...2-3
IN/HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS ARE LIKELY
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING WELL INTO THE DAY ON TUE
AS THESE BANDS SLOWLY PIVOT AND BEGIN A SLOW SHIFT TO THE E. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT...THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT A FOOT IN 6 HOURS OR EVEN LESS.

THEREFORE...FEEL THE MENTION OF 2+ FT OF TOTAL SNOWFALL ACROSS
INTERIOR TO E MA/RI AND EVEN NRN CT IS POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW
SPOTS APPROACHING 3 FT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. REGARDING THE
BLIZZARDS...BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES STILL SUPPORT WINDS NEAR BLIZZ
CRITERIA ALONG WITH THIS POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS WITHIN THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNINGS...SO NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE CHANCE FOR LOWER SN RATIOS NEARER TO THE COASTAL FRONT
LOCATIONS...COLOCATED WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PORTIONS OF SE MA /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST/ FOR THE HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES. HIGHER RATIOS FURTHER INLAND
/COLDER AIR/ ARE EXPECTED.

IT APPEARS OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY DELAY THE END TIME
ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE S SHORE...SE MA AND E RI LATE TUE
INTO WED...WHICH MAY SNOW UNTIL AFTER NOON ON WED. HOWEVER...BY
TUE NIGHT...EXPECT SLOWLY DIMINISHING SNOWFALL RATES FROM W TO E.

WINDS...
GFS HAS BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE LLJ...NOW SUPPORTING 65 KT AT
H92 FROM SRN RI THROUGH BOS AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...NAM/ECMWF
CONTINUE LEAN CLOSER TO 70-80 KT. BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF THIS MOMENTUM BEING MIXED ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COASTLINES. THEREFORE...CAN STILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING HURRICANE VELOCITY NEAR THE SHORE...PARTICULARLY THE
OUTER ARM OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET ALTHOUGH THIS TAPERS
INLAND...STILL COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS 50-60 MPH AS FAR INLAND
AS RI AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WHERE THIS
COINCIDES WITH LOWER RATIO /MORE WATER LADEN/ SNOW...COULD PRODUCE
MORE TREE DAMAGE AND THEREFORE POTENTIALLY MORE POWER OUTAGES.

COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR MORE ON THIS...PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END WED MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WED NIGHT AND WITH DEEP SNOW PACK IN
PLACE/DIMINISHING WIND SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
FRI.  THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.  IF THE ENERGY ENDS
UP GOING NORTH OF US WILL JUST HAVE A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS.  A
TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW.  IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 21Z TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
VFR REMAINS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING...AT WHICH POINT A SLOW
DIP WITH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE S. SNOWS
MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT 18-21Z...BUT WILL BE LIGHT TO START.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEGIN
TO DIP FROM MVFR TO VLIFR WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AIRPORTS REACHING
MINIMUMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING TUE. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
HEAVY-BLOWING SNOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AIRPORTS SEEING
2-3 INCH OR MORE PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...40-50 MPH INLAND AT TIMES...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 70-80 MPH WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. ASIDE FROM THIS...LLWS IS LIKELY AS WINDS AT 2KFT ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 70-80 KT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT AND/OR FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY
FRI.  DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** A PERIOD OF HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE TUE AM ***

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN
PLACE FOR THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH TO SPLASH OVER
SEAS WALLS FOR OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY
PRONE TO IT. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS...WAVE RUNUP AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A
STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST
AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE STILL 25
TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THE EXACT TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS /GUSTS TO 70 KT POSSIBLE!/ AND SURGE...WHICH APPEAR TO OCCUR
AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE LATE TUE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. GIVEN THE
TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW TIDE AND HIGH TIDE IS ONLY 6 HRS THERE
ISN/T MUCH MARGIN FOR ERROR HERE. IF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE
COINCIDE WITH ONE OF THESE HIGH TIDES MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING WOULD
OCCUR.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260841
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
341 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING.
DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODEST AND COLD HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS QC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. WITH DRIER AND COLDER AIR GRADUALLY PULLING N. HOWEVER...IT
IS THANKS TO THIS BLOCK...AND THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE THAN THERE
WAS WITH THE WEEKEND STORM...THAT WILL ALLOW LOW PRES...NEWLY
DEVELOPING OFF THE VA/NC COASTLINE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND SLOW AS
IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK BY THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH LIGHT ECHOS ARE ALREADY APPARENT S OF LI THIS
MORNING...THE DRY AIR IN PLACE WHERE DWPT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15F
WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF THE INITIAL ECHOS FROM REACHING THE
SFC...LOCKING THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE...AND HOLDING OFF SNOWFALL
UNTIL MAINLY THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. QPF IS LIGHT
DURING THIS TIME...SO ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A
COUPLE INCHES OR LESS.

THE ONLY CAVEAT THOUGH...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY HEAVIER
SNOWS ALONG AND NEAR THE E COAST OF MA. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALLS...DEVELOPING OFF OF THE COLD GULF OF MAINE
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE. THIS MAY ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES DURING
THE EARLIER COMMUTE AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING STORM...SO AREAS IN THE
BOS METRO AND N AND S SHORES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE
MORNING AS MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THESE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
NOT LONG AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*** POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM RAMPS UP TONIGHT ***

* BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A HISTORICAL BLIZZARD IMPACTING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN THERE ARE NOT SOME MESOSCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE APPROACHES. AT
ISSUE AT THIS POINT...ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE FINAL LOW PRES DEPTH
PRIOR TO THE OCCLUSION PROCESS RANGING FROM 978 HPA ON THE NAM/CMC
TO 984 ON THE GFS. AT ODDS ALSO...IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO
DISTINCT BANDED SNOW FEATURES...THE FIRST...A LONG AND SIGNIFICANT
DEFORMATION/F-GEN BAND STRETCHING FROM COASTAL MAIN INTO INTERIOR
SRN NEW ENGLAND...THE TIP OF WHICH COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE
CT VALLEY TO METRO-WEST AND THE MERRIMACK VALLEY. AVAILABLE WRF
OUTPUTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HERE...WITH THE NMM FURTHER W WITH
THE HEAVIER BANDING...WHILE THE ARW IS SUGGESTING THE E. THE OTHER
AREA WILL LIKELY BE FORM CENTRAL RI THROUGH ABOUT THE S SHORE/BOS
METRO OF MASS AS A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS AND WAVERS INLAND. SO IT
IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE TWO BULLSEYES OF SNOW
TOTALS TO WATCH...WHERE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO EXCEED 2
FT. FINALLY...THIS BANDING LOCATION WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON
FINAL TRACK...WHICH ARE STILL IN SOME MESO-SCALE DISPUTE WITH THE
GFS REMAINING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
WHILE THE ECWMF/NAM ARE JUST INSIDE AND MUCH SLOWER...STALLING THE
LOW PRES ONLY ABOUT 50 NM SE OF ACK. THEREFORE...THE BANDING AND
AXIS OF 2.5-3.0 INCH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO WAVER A
BIT...AND WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED AS THE EVENT IS UNFOLDING. WILL
TRY TO SHOW THIS TWO-BULLSEYE SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT WITH THIS
UPDATE...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE HIGH IMPACT STORM ACROSS ALL
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHOLESALE CHANGES WILL NOTE BE MADE.

DETAILS/IMPACTS...

PRECIP TYPE...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCE OF A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
BRIEFLY ESPECIALLY FOR ACK...WITH THE H92 0C LINE INCHING CLOSE
/BUT STAYING MAINLY S WITH THE 00Z RUNS/. NAM IS COLDEST WHILE
ECMWF REMAINS THE COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. GIVEN THE
SLIGHT COOLING SHIFT OF RECENT RUNS AND EXAMINING BUFKIT PROFILES
AND BASED ON IMPACT POTENTIAL...WILL BE UPGRADING ACK TO A WINTER
STORM WATCH THIS THIS UPDATE...AS INITIAL SNOW...FOLLOWED BY BACK
END AFTER THE POTENTIAL CHANGEOVER...COULD STILL EXCEED WARNING
CRITERIA.

TOTAL SNOWFALL/BLIZZARD...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE..WE ARE ALREADY NOTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
THE N AND S SHORES /BOS METRO ALSO/ AROUND THE TIME OF AFTERNOON
RUSH. GIVEN THE STORM PREP...IT/S POSSIBLE MORE COULD BE ON THE
ROAD. THEREFORE...MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME MODEST ACCUMULATIONS
BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVES UP FROM THE SW BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z. BY 00Z IT SHOULD BE SNOWING...ALTHOUGH LIGHTLY TO START
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY TOTALS LIKELY
FALLING BELOW AN INCH OR TWO.

AS STATED THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO BANDING LOCATIONS...ONE
FROM TYPICAL MID-LVL DEFORMATION AND NEGATIVE EPV...WITH THE OTHER
CLOSER TO THE SFC INVOF OF THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS RI-SE MA OR
NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WHILE NAILING THESE DOWN IS DIFFICULT
ALMOST 24 HOURS OUT...MESOSCALE MODELS DO AT THE VERY LEAST
INDICATE THAT WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS...DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR A MAXIMUM AND WITH BANDS OF VERY NEGATIVE EPV...2-3
IN/HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS ARE LIKELY
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING WELL INTO THE DAY ON TUE
AS THESE BANDS SLOWLY PIVOT AND BEGIN A SLOW SHIFT TO THE E. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT...THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT A FOOT IN 6 HOURS OR EVEN LESS.

THEREFORE...FEEL THE MENTION OF 2+ FT OF TOTAL SNOWFALL ACROSS
INTERIOR TO E MA/RI AND EVEN NRN CT IS POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW
SPOTS APPROACHING 3 FT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. REGARDING THE
BLIZZARDS...BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES STILL SUPPORT WINDS NEAR BLIZZ
CRITERIA ALONG WITH THIS POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS WITHIN THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNINGS...SO NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE CHANCE FOR LOWER SN RATIOS NEARER TO THE COASTAL FRONT
LOCATIONS...COLOCATED WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PORTIONS OF SE MA /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST/ FOR THE HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES. HIGHER RATIOS FURTHER INLAND
/COLDER AIR/ ARE EXPECTED.

IT APPEARS OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY DELAY THE END TIME
ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE S SHORE...SE MA AND E RI LATE TUE
INTO WED...WHICH MAY SNOW UNTIL AFTER NOON ON WED. HOWEVER...BY
TUE NIGHT...EXPECT SLOWLY DIMINISHING SNOWFALL RATES FROM W TO E.

WINDS...
GFS HAS BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE LLJ...NOW SUPPORTING 65 KT AT
H92 FROM SRN RI THROUGH BOS AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...NAM/ECMWF
CONTINUE LEAN CLOSER TO 70-80 KT. BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF THIS MOMENTUM BEING MIXED ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COASTLINES. THEREFORE...CAN STILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING HURRICANE VELOCITY NEAR THE SHORE...PARTICULARLY THE
OUTER ARM OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET ALTHOUGH THIS TAPERS
INLAND...STILL COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS 50-60 MPH AS FAR INLAND
AS RI AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WHERE THIS
COINCIDES WITH LOWER RATIO /MORE WATER LADEN/ SNOW...COULD PRODUCE
MORE TREE DAMAGE AND THEREFORE POTENTIALLY MORE POWER OUTAGES.

COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR MORE ON THIS...PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END WED MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WED NIGHT AND WITH DEEP SNOW PACK IN
PLACE/DIMINISHING WIND SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
FRI.  THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.  IF THE ENERGY ENDS
UP GOING NORTH OF US WILL JUST HAVE A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS.  A
TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW.  IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 21Z TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
VFR REMAINS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING...AT WHICH POINT A SLOW
DIP WITH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE S. SNOWS
MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT 18-21Z...BUT WILL BE LIGHT TO START.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEGIN
TO DIP FROM MVFR TO VLIFR WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AIRPORTS REACHING
MINIMUMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING TUE. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
HEAVY-BLOWING SNOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AIRPORTS SEEING
2-3 INCH OR MORE PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...40-50 MPH INLAND AT TIMES...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 70-80 MPH WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. ASIDE FROM THIS...LLWS IS LIKELY AS WINDS AT 2KFT ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 70-80 KT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT AND/OR FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY
FRI.  DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** A PERIOD OF HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE TUE AM ***

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN
PLACE FOR THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH TO SPLASH OVER
SEAS WALLS FOR OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY
PRONE TO IT. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS...WAVE RUNUP AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A
STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST
AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE STILL 25
TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THE EXACT TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS /GUSTS TO 70 KT POSSIBLE!/ AND SURGE...WHICH APPEAR TO OCCUR
AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE LATE TUE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. GIVEN THE
TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW TIDE AND HIGH TIDE IS ONLY 6 HRS THERE
ISN/T MUCH MARGIN FOR ERROR HERE. IF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE
COINCIDE WITH ONE OF THESE HIGH TIDES MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING WOULD
OCCUR.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260559
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1259 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A MAJOR
AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND
LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. INCREASED SKY COVER AND
OVERNIGHT MINS BY A BIT...BUT OTHERWISE EVERYTHING LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.  HOWEVER...INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE
COAST MAY PUT A STOP TO RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY.  THEREFORE...NOT
DROPPING TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THEY COULD BE IF SKIES REMAINED
CLEAR.  FORECASTING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BEFORE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT.  MOSTLY DRY/QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BUT DEFINITELY A DETERIORATING TREND.
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.  THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST MOVING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND MIDDAY.  HOWEVER...THE NAM/ECMWF ARE THE
PREFERRED SOLUTIONS FOR THE NOREASTER/BLIZZARD.  THESE SOLUTIONS
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SNOW MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  BECAUSE OF THIS...ONLY EXPECT A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY /7 PM MONDAY/.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS SE
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* HISTORIC AND POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING BLIZZARD MON NIGHT INTO TUE
  NIGHT
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL MULTI-MODEL AGREEMENT ON SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN LEADS US
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND POTENTIALLY
CRIPPLING BLIZZARD FOR SNE. POTENT NEG TILT SHORTWAVE DIVING TO SE
US COAST WILL RESULT IN SFC REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND
EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
LOW CLOSES OFF. HIGH PRES WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
PROVIDING A SOURCE OF COLD AIR AND ENHANCING BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG
THE COAST.  THE STORM EVENTUALLY GETS CAPTURED WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT NWD FROM NEAR THE BENCHMARK AND LONG DURATION
STORM.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE 850/700 MB LOWS AND
HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS THE AREA WHICH WILL IMPACT EXACTLY WHERE BEST
BANDING SETS UP...POTENTIAL DRY SLOT EASTERN NEW ENG AS WELL AS
PTYPE FOR CAPE/ISLANDS. WE THINK GFS IS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND A BIT
TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST WITH MID LEVEL LOW AND WE ARE LEANING TOWARD
ECMWF/NAM BLEND WHICH ARE REASONABLY CLOSE.

DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN MID LEVEL LOW TRACK...QPF IS PRETTY SIMILAR
WITH 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS SNE WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES.
PROBABLY LOOKING AT NEAR CLIMO SNOW LIQUID RATIOS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO
10:1 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NO MORE THAN 12-15:1 INTERIOR AS MID
LEVEL TEMPS IN THE SNOW PRODUCTION ZONE ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON BLIZZARD IN EASTERN NEW ENG SO WE ARE UPGRADING
WATCHES TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS. WE ARE ALSO EXPANDING THE BLIZZARD
WARNINGS TO N CT...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MA AND CAPE COD AND MVY.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR WESTERN MA AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT WIND
CRITERIA WILL BE MET.  AND FINALLY FOR ACK...WE KEPT THE WINTER
STORM WATCH AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT IN 6 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO PTYPE
ISSUES AND WE ALSO UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING.

1) PRECIP TYPE...

THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT
WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT ENOUGH WARMING FOR A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO
RAIN OVER ACK LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THIS WARMING POSSIBLY
REACHING THE OUTER CAPE FOR A TIME DURING TUE.  ECMWF IS PRETTY
BULLISH ON THIS WARMING AND NAM ALSO SHOWS IT BUT TO A LESSER
EXTENT.

2) HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND

SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY MON EVENING...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW
LIKELY DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS VERY IMPRESSIVE BANDING SIGNATURE DEVELOPS AND LIFTS N
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS OCCURS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF TO
THE SOUTH WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT ENHANCING FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. VERY STRONG OMEGA THROUGH THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE COMBINED WITH -EPV SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR 2-3"/HR SNOWFALL
RATES AND POCKETS OF THUNDER SNOW 06-15Z AS THE BAND LIFTS TO THE N.

MODELS SHOW BANDING SIGNATURE MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR WEST OF I-95
CORRIDOR DURING TUE AND PIVOTING FROM E-W TO NE-SW
CONFIGURATION...WHILE POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF E MA.
FORECASTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BANDING...WHERE IT PIVOTS AND
LOCATION OF THE DRY SLOT TUESDAY IS VERY CHALLENGING AND WILL
DETERMINE WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW SETS UP. THIS WILL DEPEND ON
THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL LOW.  ECMWF PUSHES THIS BAND ALL THE WAY
INTO WESTERN NEW ENG WHILE NAM IS CLOSER TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  WE
THINK IT WILL SET UP A LITTLE WEST OF I-95 ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
COASTAL FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE WE THINK HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUM WILL
BE.

POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 FEET OF SNOW IN THIS ZONE NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...
UP TO 2 FEET FAR W MA AND ALSO SE MA WHERE DRY SLOT MAY CUT BACK ON
SNOW ACCUM A TAD DESPITE HEAVIER QPF HERE. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON TO
FIND THE HEAVIEST SNOW A BIT NW OF MAX QPF AXIS BECAUSE OF WHERE THE
BANDING SETS UP. FOR THE CAPE AND MVY WE ARE LOOKING AT 10-18" WITH
HEAVIEST NEAR THE CANAL.  LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR ACK AND WE
HAVE UP TO 6 INCHES HERE BUT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER.

HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SE MA AND CAPE
COD WHERE THERE IS ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWN TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.  DRIER SNOW IN THE
INTERIOR.

VERY STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AS IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS N OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRES.  NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS 70-80 MPH FOR THE OUTER
CAPE AND ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WHEN
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR.  GUSTS TO 50-60 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS REST
OF SE MA EAST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR...AND 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITY LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN NEW ENG. THIS
IS A SERIOUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND TRAVEL IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED TONIGHT INTO TUE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE
TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
AND BANDING BECOMES FRACTURED...BUT LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE NIGHT GIVEN PROXIMITY OF MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH
SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHILE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE BLIZZARD...WE WILL
UPDATE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS TIME PERMITS.

SNOW COMES TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY /ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN GFS/
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 21Z TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
VFR REMAINS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING...AT WHICH POINT A SLOW
DIP WITH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE S. SNOWS
MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT 18-21Z...BUT WILL BE LIGHT TO START.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEGIN
TO DIP FROM MVFR TO VLIFR WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AIRPORTS REACHING
MINIMUMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING TUE. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
HEAVY-BLOWING SNOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AIRPORTS SEEING
2-3 INCH OR MORE PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...40-50 MPH INLAND AT TIMES...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 70-80 MPH WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. ASIDE FROM THIS...LLWS IS LIKELY AS WINDS AT 2KFT ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 70-80 KT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIFR IN HEAVY
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST
WITH GUSTS 50-65 KTS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER...
FOCUSING ON THE UPCOMING NOREASTER/BLIZZARD...AND ASSOCIATED STORM
FORCE TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...HAVE
DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 30 FT
   AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY***

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 55 TO 65 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 30 FT OVER EASTERN WATERS. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS WITH STORM WARNING
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND MARINERS
SHOULD RETURN TO PORT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. HAVE UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE
TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY PRONE TO IT.
SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD
PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST
FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR EVEN A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE
STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260559
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1259 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A MAJOR
AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND
LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. INCREASED SKY COVER AND
OVERNIGHT MINS BY A BIT...BUT OTHERWISE EVERYTHING LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.  HOWEVER...INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE
COAST MAY PUT A STOP TO RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY.  THEREFORE...NOT
DROPPING TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THEY COULD BE IF SKIES REMAINED
CLEAR.  FORECASTING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BEFORE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT.  MOSTLY DRY/QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BUT DEFINITELY A DETERIORATING TREND.
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.  THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST MOVING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND MIDDAY.  HOWEVER...THE NAM/ECMWF ARE THE
PREFERRED SOLUTIONS FOR THE NOREASTER/BLIZZARD.  THESE SOLUTIONS
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SNOW MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  BECAUSE OF THIS...ONLY EXPECT A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY /7 PM MONDAY/.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS SE
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* HISTORIC AND POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING BLIZZARD MON NIGHT INTO TUE
  NIGHT
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL MULTI-MODEL AGREEMENT ON SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN LEADS US
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND POTENTIALLY
CRIPPLING BLIZZARD FOR SNE. POTENT NEG TILT SHORTWAVE DIVING TO SE
US COAST WILL RESULT IN SFC REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND
EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
LOW CLOSES OFF. HIGH PRES WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
PROVIDING A SOURCE OF COLD AIR AND ENHANCING BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG
THE COAST.  THE STORM EVENTUALLY GETS CAPTURED WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT NWD FROM NEAR THE BENCHMARK AND LONG DURATION
STORM.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE 850/700 MB LOWS AND
HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS THE AREA WHICH WILL IMPACT EXACTLY WHERE BEST
BANDING SETS UP...POTENTIAL DRY SLOT EASTERN NEW ENG AS WELL AS
PTYPE FOR CAPE/ISLANDS. WE THINK GFS IS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND A BIT
TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST WITH MID LEVEL LOW AND WE ARE LEANING TOWARD
ECMWF/NAM BLEND WHICH ARE REASONABLY CLOSE.

DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN MID LEVEL LOW TRACK...QPF IS PRETTY SIMILAR
WITH 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS SNE WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES.
PROBABLY LOOKING AT NEAR CLIMO SNOW LIQUID RATIOS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO
10:1 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NO MORE THAN 12-15:1 INTERIOR AS MID
LEVEL TEMPS IN THE SNOW PRODUCTION ZONE ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON BLIZZARD IN EASTERN NEW ENG SO WE ARE UPGRADING
WATCHES TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS. WE ARE ALSO EXPANDING THE BLIZZARD
WARNINGS TO N CT...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MA AND CAPE COD AND MVY.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR WESTERN MA AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT WIND
CRITERIA WILL BE MET.  AND FINALLY FOR ACK...WE KEPT THE WINTER
STORM WATCH AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT IN 6 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO PTYPE
ISSUES AND WE ALSO UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING.

1) PRECIP TYPE...

THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT
WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT ENOUGH WARMING FOR A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO
RAIN OVER ACK LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THIS WARMING POSSIBLY
REACHING THE OUTER CAPE FOR A TIME DURING TUE.  ECMWF IS PRETTY
BULLISH ON THIS WARMING AND NAM ALSO SHOWS IT BUT TO A LESSER
EXTENT.

2) HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND

SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY MON EVENING...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW
LIKELY DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS VERY IMPRESSIVE BANDING SIGNATURE DEVELOPS AND LIFTS N
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS OCCURS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF TO
THE SOUTH WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT ENHANCING FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. VERY STRONG OMEGA THROUGH THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE COMBINED WITH -EPV SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR 2-3"/HR SNOWFALL
RATES AND POCKETS OF THUNDER SNOW 06-15Z AS THE BAND LIFTS TO THE N.

MODELS SHOW BANDING SIGNATURE MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR WEST OF I-95
CORRIDOR DURING TUE AND PIVOTING FROM E-W TO NE-SW
CONFIGURATION...WHILE POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF E MA.
FORECASTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BANDING...WHERE IT PIVOTS AND
LOCATION OF THE DRY SLOT TUESDAY IS VERY CHALLENGING AND WILL
DETERMINE WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW SETS UP. THIS WILL DEPEND ON
THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL LOW.  ECMWF PUSHES THIS BAND ALL THE WAY
INTO WESTERN NEW ENG WHILE NAM IS CLOSER TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  WE
THINK IT WILL SET UP A LITTLE WEST OF I-95 ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
COASTAL FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE WE THINK HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUM WILL
BE.

POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 FEET OF SNOW IN THIS ZONE NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...
UP TO 2 FEET FAR W MA AND ALSO SE MA WHERE DRY SLOT MAY CUT BACK ON
SNOW ACCUM A TAD DESPITE HEAVIER QPF HERE. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON TO
FIND THE HEAVIEST SNOW A BIT NW OF MAX QPF AXIS BECAUSE OF WHERE THE
BANDING SETS UP. FOR THE CAPE AND MVY WE ARE LOOKING AT 10-18" WITH
HEAVIEST NEAR THE CANAL.  LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR ACK AND WE
HAVE UP TO 6 INCHES HERE BUT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER.

HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SE MA AND CAPE
COD WHERE THERE IS ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWN TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.  DRIER SNOW IN THE
INTERIOR.

VERY STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AS IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS N OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRES.  NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS 70-80 MPH FOR THE OUTER
CAPE AND ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WHEN
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR.  GUSTS TO 50-60 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS REST
OF SE MA EAST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR...AND 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITY LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN NEW ENG. THIS
IS A SERIOUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND TRAVEL IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED TONIGHT INTO TUE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE
TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
AND BANDING BECOMES FRACTURED...BUT LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE NIGHT GIVEN PROXIMITY OF MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH
SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHILE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE BLIZZARD...WE WILL
UPDATE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS TIME PERMITS.

SNOW COMES TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY /ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN GFS/
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 21Z TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
VFR REMAINS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING...AT WHICH POINT A SLOW
DIP WITH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE S. SNOWS
MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT 18-21Z...BUT WILL BE LIGHT TO START.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEGIN
TO DIP FROM MVFR TO VLIFR WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AIRPORTS REACHING
MINIMUMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING TUE. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
HEAVY-BLOWING SNOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AIRPORTS SEEING
2-3 INCH OR MORE PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...40-50 MPH INLAND AT TIMES...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 70-80 MPH WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. ASIDE FROM THIS...LLWS IS LIKELY AS WINDS AT 2KFT ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 70-80 KT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIFR IN HEAVY
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST
WITH GUSTS 50-65 KTS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER...
FOCUSING ON THE UPCOMING NOREASTER/BLIZZARD...AND ASSOCIATED STORM
FORCE TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...HAVE
DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 30 FT
   AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY***

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 55 TO 65 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 30 FT OVER EASTERN WATERS. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS WITH STORM WARNING
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND MARINERS
SHOULD RETURN TO PORT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. HAVE UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE
TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY PRONE TO IT.
SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD
PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST
FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR EVEN A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE
STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260559
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1259 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A MAJOR
AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND
LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. INCREASED SKY COVER AND
OVERNIGHT MINS BY A BIT...BUT OTHERWISE EVERYTHING LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.  HOWEVER...INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE
COAST MAY PUT A STOP TO RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY.  THEREFORE...NOT
DROPPING TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THEY COULD BE IF SKIES REMAINED
CLEAR.  FORECASTING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BEFORE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT.  MOSTLY DRY/QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BUT DEFINITELY A DETERIORATING TREND.
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.  THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST MOVING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND MIDDAY.  HOWEVER...THE NAM/ECMWF ARE THE
PREFERRED SOLUTIONS FOR THE NOREASTER/BLIZZARD.  THESE SOLUTIONS
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SNOW MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  BECAUSE OF THIS...ONLY EXPECT A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY /7 PM MONDAY/.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS SE
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* HISTORIC AND POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING BLIZZARD MON NIGHT INTO TUE
  NIGHT
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL MULTI-MODEL AGREEMENT ON SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN LEADS US
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND POTENTIALLY
CRIPPLING BLIZZARD FOR SNE. POTENT NEG TILT SHORTWAVE DIVING TO SE
US COAST WILL RESULT IN SFC REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND
EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
LOW CLOSES OFF. HIGH PRES WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
PROVIDING A SOURCE OF COLD AIR AND ENHANCING BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG
THE COAST.  THE STORM EVENTUALLY GETS CAPTURED WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT NWD FROM NEAR THE BENCHMARK AND LONG DURATION
STORM.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE 850/700 MB LOWS AND
HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS THE AREA WHICH WILL IMPACT EXACTLY WHERE BEST
BANDING SETS UP...POTENTIAL DRY SLOT EASTERN NEW ENG AS WELL AS
PTYPE FOR CAPE/ISLANDS. WE THINK GFS IS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND A BIT
TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST WITH MID LEVEL LOW AND WE ARE LEANING TOWARD
ECMWF/NAM BLEND WHICH ARE REASONABLY CLOSE.

DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN MID LEVEL LOW TRACK...QPF IS PRETTY SIMILAR
WITH 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS SNE WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES.
PROBABLY LOOKING AT NEAR CLIMO SNOW LIQUID RATIOS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO
10:1 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NO MORE THAN 12-15:1 INTERIOR AS MID
LEVEL TEMPS IN THE SNOW PRODUCTION ZONE ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON BLIZZARD IN EASTERN NEW ENG SO WE ARE UPGRADING
WATCHES TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS. WE ARE ALSO EXPANDING THE BLIZZARD
WARNINGS TO N CT...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MA AND CAPE COD AND MVY.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR WESTERN MA AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT WIND
CRITERIA WILL BE MET.  AND FINALLY FOR ACK...WE KEPT THE WINTER
STORM WATCH AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT IN 6 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO PTYPE
ISSUES AND WE ALSO UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING.

1) PRECIP TYPE...

THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT
WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT ENOUGH WARMING FOR A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO
RAIN OVER ACK LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THIS WARMING POSSIBLY
REACHING THE OUTER CAPE FOR A TIME DURING TUE.  ECMWF IS PRETTY
BULLISH ON THIS WARMING AND NAM ALSO SHOWS IT BUT TO A LESSER
EXTENT.

2) HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND

SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY MON EVENING...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW
LIKELY DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS VERY IMPRESSIVE BANDING SIGNATURE DEVELOPS AND LIFTS N
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS OCCURS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF TO
THE SOUTH WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT ENHANCING FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. VERY STRONG OMEGA THROUGH THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE COMBINED WITH -EPV SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR 2-3"/HR SNOWFALL
RATES AND POCKETS OF THUNDER SNOW 06-15Z AS THE BAND LIFTS TO THE N.

MODELS SHOW BANDING SIGNATURE MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR WEST OF I-95
CORRIDOR DURING TUE AND PIVOTING FROM E-W TO NE-SW
CONFIGURATION...WHILE POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF E MA.
FORECASTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BANDING...WHERE IT PIVOTS AND
LOCATION OF THE DRY SLOT TUESDAY IS VERY CHALLENGING AND WILL
DETERMINE WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW SETS UP. THIS WILL DEPEND ON
THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL LOW.  ECMWF PUSHES THIS BAND ALL THE WAY
INTO WESTERN NEW ENG WHILE NAM IS CLOSER TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  WE
THINK IT WILL SET UP A LITTLE WEST OF I-95 ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
COASTAL FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE WE THINK HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUM WILL
BE.

POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 FEET OF SNOW IN THIS ZONE NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...
UP TO 2 FEET FAR W MA AND ALSO SE MA WHERE DRY SLOT MAY CUT BACK ON
SNOW ACCUM A TAD DESPITE HEAVIER QPF HERE. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON TO
FIND THE HEAVIEST SNOW A BIT NW OF MAX QPF AXIS BECAUSE OF WHERE THE
BANDING SETS UP. FOR THE CAPE AND MVY WE ARE LOOKING AT 10-18" WITH
HEAVIEST NEAR THE CANAL.  LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR ACK AND WE
HAVE UP TO 6 INCHES HERE BUT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER.

HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SE MA AND CAPE
COD WHERE THERE IS ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWN TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.  DRIER SNOW IN THE
INTERIOR.

VERY STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AS IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS N OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRES.  NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS 70-80 MPH FOR THE OUTER
CAPE AND ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WHEN
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR.  GUSTS TO 50-60 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS REST
OF SE MA EAST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR...AND 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITY LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN NEW ENG. THIS
IS A SERIOUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND TRAVEL IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED TONIGHT INTO TUE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE
TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
AND BANDING BECOMES FRACTURED...BUT LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE NIGHT GIVEN PROXIMITY OF MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH
SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHILE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE BLIZZARD...WE WILL
UPDATE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS TIME PERMITS.

SNOW COMES TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY /ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN GFS/
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 21Z TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
VFR REMAINS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING...AT WHICH POINT A SLOW
DIP WITH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE S. SNOWS
MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT 18-21Z...BUT WILL BE LIGHT TO START.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEGIN
TO DIP FROM MVFR TO VLIFR WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AIRPORTS REACHING
MINIMUMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING TUE. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
HEAVY-BLOWING SNOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AIRPORTS SEEING
2-3 INCH OR MORE PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...40-50 MPH INLAND AT TIMES...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 70-80 MPH WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. ASIDE FROM THIS...LLWS IS LIKELY AS WINDS AT 2KFT ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 70-80 KT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIFR IN HEAVY
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST
WITH GUSTS 50-65 KTS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER...
FOCUSING ON THE UPCOMING NOREASTER/BLIZZARD...AND ASSOCIATED STORM
FORCE TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...HAVE
DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 30 FT
   AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY***

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 55 TO 65 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 30 FT OVER EASTERN WATERS. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS WITH STORM WARNING
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND MARINERS
SHOULD RETURN TO PORT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. HAVE UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE
TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY PRONE TO IT.
SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD
PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST
FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR EVEN A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE
STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260559
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1259 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A MAJOR
AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND
LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. INCREASED SKY COVER AND
OVERNIGHT MINS BY A BIT...BUT OTHERWISE EVERYTHING LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.  HOWEVER...INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE
COAST MAY PUT A STOP TO RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY.  THEREFORE...NOT
DROPPING TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THEY COULD BE IF SKIES REMAINED
CLEAR.  FORECASTING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BEFORE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT.  MOSTLY DRY/QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BUT DEFINITELY A DETERIORATING TREND.
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.  THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST MOVING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND MIDDAY.  HOWEVER...THE NAM/ECMWF ARE THE
PREFERRED SOLUTIONS FOR THE NOREASTER/BLIZZARD.  THESE SOLUTIONS
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SNOW MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  BECAUSE OF THIS...ONLY EXPECT A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY /7 PM MONDAY/.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS SE
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* HISTORIC AND POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING BLIZZARD MON NIGHT INTO TUE
  NIGHT
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL MULTI-MODEL AGREEMENT ON SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN LEADS US
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND POTENTIALLY
CRIPPLING BLIZZARD FOR SNE. POTENT NEG TILT SHORTWAVE DIVING TO SE
US COAST WILL RESULT IN SFC REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND
EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
LOW CLOSES OFF. HIGH PRES WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
PROVIDING A SOURCE OF COLD AIR AND ENHANCING BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG
THE COAST.  THE STORM EVENTUALLY GETS CAPTURED WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT NWD FROM NEAR THE BENCHMARK AND LONG DURATION
STORM.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE 850/700 MB LOWS AND
HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS THE AREA WHICH WILL IMPACT EXACTLY WHERE BEST
BANDING SETS UP...POTENTIAL DRY SLOT EASTERN NEW ENG AS WELL AS
PTYPE FOR CAPE/ISLANDS. WE THINK GFS IS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND A BIT
TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST WITH MID LEVEL LOW AND WE ARE LEANING TOWARD
ECMWF/NAM BLEND WHICH ARE REASONABLY CLOSE.

DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN MID LEVEL LOW TRACK...QPF IS PRETTY SIMILAR
WITH 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS SNE WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES.
PROBABLY LOOKING AT NEAR CLIMO SNOW LIQUID RATIOS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO
10:1 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NO MORE THAN 12-15:1 INTERIOR AS MID
LEVEL TEMPS IN THE SNOW PRODUCTION ZONE ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON BLIZZARD IN EASTERN NEW ENG SO WE ARE UPGRADING
WATCHES TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS. WE ARE ALSO EXPANDING THE BLIZZARD
WARNINGS TO N CT...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MA AND CAPE COD AND MVY.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR WESTERN MA AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT WIND
CRITERIA WILL BE MET.  AND FINALLY FOR ACK...WE KEPT THE WINTER
STORM WATCH AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT IN 6 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO PTYPE
ISSUES AND WE ALSO UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING.

1) PRECIP TYPE...

THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT
WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT ENOUGH WARMING FOR A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO
RAIN OVER ACK LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THIS WARMING POSSIBLY
REACHING THE OUTER CAPE FOR A TIME DURING TUE.  ECMWF IS PRETTY
BULLISH ON THIS WARMING AND NAM ALSO SHOWS IT BUT TO A LESSER
EXTENT.

2) HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND

SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY MON EVENING...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW
LIKELY DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS VERY IMPRESSIVE BANDING SIGNATURE DEVELOPS AND LIFTS N
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS OCCURS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF TO
THE SOUTH WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT ENHANCING FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. VERY STRONG OMEGA THROUGH THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE COMBINED WITH -EPV SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR 2-3"/HR SNOWFALL
RATES AND POCKETS OF THUNDER SNOW 06-15Z AS THE BAND LIFTS TO THE N.

MODELS SHOW BANDING SIGNATURE MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR WEST OF I-95
CORRIDOR DURING TUE AND PIVOTING FROM E-W TO NE-SW
CONFIGURATION...WHILE POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF E MA.
FORECASTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BANDING...WHERE IT PIVOTS AND
LOCATION OF THE DRY SLOT TUESDAY IS VERY CHALLENGING AND WILL
DETERMINE WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW SETS UP. THIS WILL DEPEND ON
THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL LOW.  ECMWF PUSHES THIS BAND ALL THE WAY
INTO WESTERN NEW ENG WHILE NAM IS CLOSER TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  WE
THINK IT WILL SET UP A LITTLE WEST OF I-95 ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
COASTAL FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE WE THINK HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUM WILL
BE.

POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 FEET OF SNOW IN THIS ZONE NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...
UP TO 2 FEET FAR W MA AND ALSO SE MA WHERE DRY SLOT MAY CUT BACK ON
SNOW ACCUM A TAD DESPITE HEAVIER QPF HERE. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON TO
FIND THE HEAVIEST SNOW A BIT NW OF MAX QPF AXIS BECAUSE OF WHERE THE
BANDING SETS UP. FOR THE CAPE AND MVY WE ARE LOOKING AT 10-18" WITH
HEAVIEST NEAR THE CANAL.  LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR ACK AND WE
HAVE UP TO 6 INCHES HERE BUT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER.

HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SE MA AND CAPE
COD WHERE THERE IS ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWN TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.  DRIER SNOW IN THE
INTERIOR.

VERY STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AS IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS N OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRES.  NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS 70-80 MPH FOR THE OUTER
CAPE AND ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WHEN
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR.  GUSTS TO 50-60 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS REST
OF SE MA EAST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR...AND 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITY LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN NEW ENG. THIS
IS A SERIOUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND TRAVEL IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED TONIGHT INTO TUE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE
TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
AND BANDING BECOMES FRACTURED...BUT LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE NIGHT GIVEN PROXIMITY OF MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH
SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHILE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE BLIZZARD...WE WILL
UPDATE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS TIME PERMITS.

SNOW COMES TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY /ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN GFS/
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 21Z TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
VFR REMAINS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING...AT WHICH POINT A SLOW
DIP WITH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE S. SNOWS
MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT 18-21Z...BUT WILL BE LIGHT TO START.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEGIN
TO DIP FROM MVFR TO VLIFR WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AIRPORTS REACHING
MINIMUMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING TUE. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
HEAVY-BLOWING SNOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AIRPORTS SEEING
2-3 INCH OR MORE PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...40-50 MPH INLAND AT TIMES...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 70-80 MPH WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. ASIDE FROM THIS...LLWS IS LIKELY AS WINDS AT 2KFT ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 70-80 KT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIFR IN HEAVY
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST
WITH GUSTS 50-65 KTS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER...
FOCUSING ON THE UPCOMING NOREASTER/BLIZZARD...AND ASSOCIATED STORM
FORCE TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...HAVE
DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 30 FT
   AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY***

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 55 TO 65 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 30 FT OVER EASTERN WATERS. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS WITH STORM WARNING
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND MARINERS
SHOULD RETURN TO PORT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. HAVE UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE
TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY PRONE TO IT.
SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD
PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST
FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR EVEN A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE
STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 260326 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1026 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY THEN RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CROSSED THE REGION TODAY BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES
OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 BELOW IN THE NORTH
HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD DECREASE KEEPING WIND CHILLS ABOVE ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL VERY BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL ALREADY BE AFFECTING NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION SPREADS SNOW NORTHWARD.
POTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO 983 MB BY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVERHEAD. THE
STORM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 12 HRS AS THE TROUGH
BATTLES WITH DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. THIS STALLING IS KEY TO THE
AMOUNT OF QPF AND ULTIMATELY SNOW THAT WILL FALL OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE CHARACTER OF THE SNOW WILL BE FLUFFY AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY. WENT WITH A 15:1 RATIO
ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE GONE HIGHER.

THE MESOSCALE BANDING IS HIGHLIGHTED BY PETERSSON FRONTOGENESIS...
WHICH SHOWS THE BEST BANDING SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS BEFORE CURVING NE THROUGH SOUTHERN NH NEAR
CHICHESTER... AND THEN ENE TOWARDS FRYEBURG AND WATERVILLE MAINE.
THIS WILL BE CONSISTENT WITH THE COASTAL/WARM FRONT AS IT TRIES TO
WORK ITS WAY INLAND. ITS IN THIS BAND WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS WILL FALL... LIKELY AROUND TWO FEET. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
MAY BE FOUND IN SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE WHERE THE FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING COINCIDES WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.

GEFS AND NAM ANOMALIES FOR 925 AND 850 MB U AND EVEN V WIND
COMPONENTS OF MORE THAN 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL SHOW
THIS STORM WILL PACK VERY STRONG WINDS... LIKELY CAUSING WIND
DAMAGE AS THESE WINDS MIX EASILY TO THE SURFACE IN PRECIPITATION
LOADING. FOR THIS REASON FELT CONFIDENT GOING WITH BLIZZARD
WARNINGS FOR THE COAST AND THOSE COUNTIES ALONG THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE... WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 10-20" WARRANTS WINTER
WEATHER WARNINGS. OVER THE WATERS WE HAVE ISSUED GALES AND STORM
FORCE WARNINGS. SHADOWING ON THE WESTWARD SLOPES OF THE WHITES
SHOULD GIVE SOMEWHAT LOWER TOTALS TO ADJOINING COUNTIES.. AND FOR
THIS REASON HAVE GONE WITH ONLY AN ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN COOS. THE
STORM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS TAPERING
OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL SEE RAPID CLEARING AS THE NOREASTER TRACKS OUT OF
THE AREA. THE HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH
ANOTHER WAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM... AND HAVE LEANED ON A WEAKER NORTHERLY TRACK FOR
THIS UPDATE. THE STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WITH CLEARING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
DECREASE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...AS COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SPREADS SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY SNOW AND WIDESPREAD
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WIND DOWN TUESDAY EVENING...BUT SNOW
LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY SEE NE GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE FOR
THIS EVENING. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN
THE BAYS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURE DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST.

LONG TERM...STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS TO THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAYS
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RELATIVELY LOW IN THE ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE HOWEVER
PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A STORM SURGE OF UP TO
2 FEET. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WAVES OF 15 TO 20 FEET OFF SHORE
AND MAY PRODUCE FLOODING AND SPLASHOVER AT HIGH TIDE. AT PORTLAND
HIGH TIDE IS 10.0 FT AT 420AM TUESDAY... 9.1FT AT 453PM TUESDAY
AND 9.8FT AT 523AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ002>009-011-012-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NHZ010-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 260326 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1026 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY THEN RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CROSSED THE REGION TODAY BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES
OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 BELOW IN THE NORTH
HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD DECREASE KEEPING WIND CHILLS ABOVE ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL VERY BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL ALREADY BE AFFECTING NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION SPREADS SNOW NORTHWARD.
POTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO 983 MB BY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVERHEAD. THE
STORM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 12 HRS AS THE TROUGH
BATTLES WITH DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. THIS STALLING IS KEY TO THE
AMOUNT OF QPF AND ULTIMATELY SNOW THAT WILL FALL OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE CHARACTER OF THE SNOW WILL BE FLUFFY AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY. WENT WITH A 15:1 RATIO
ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE GONE HIGHER.

THE MESOSCALE BANDING IS HIGHLIGHTED BY PETERSSON FRONTOGENESIS...
WHICH SHOWS THE BEST BANDING SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS BEFORE CURVING NE THROUGH SOUTHERN NH NEAR
CHICHESTER... AND THEN ENE TOWARDS FRYEBURG AND WATERVILLE MAINE.
THIS WILL BE CONSISTENT WITH THE COASTAL/WARM FRONT AS IT TRIES TO
WORK ITS WAY INLAND. ITS IN THIS BAND WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS WILL FALL... LIKELY AROUND TWO FEET. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
MAY BE FOUND IN SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE WHERE THE FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING COINCIDES WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.

GEFS AND NAM ANOMALIES FOR 925 AND 850 MB U AND EVEN V WIND
COMPONENTS OF MORE THAN 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL SHOW
THIS STORM WILL PACK VERY STRONG WINDS... LIKELY CAUSING WIND
DAMAGE AS THESE WINDS MIX EASILY TO THE SURFACE IN PRECIPITATION
LOADING. FOR THIS REASON FELT CONFIDENT GOING WITH BLIZZARD
WARNINGS FOR THE COAST AND THOSE COUNTIES ALONG THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE... WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 10-20" WARRANTS WINTER
WEATHER WARNINGS. OVER THE WATERS WE HAVE ISSUED GALES AND STORM
FORCE WARNINGS. SHADOWING ON THE WESTWARD SLOPES OF THE WHITES
SHOULD GIVE SOMEWHAT LOWER TOTALS TO ADJOINING COUNTIES.. AND FOR
THIS REASON HAVE GONE WITH ONLY AN ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN COOS. THE
STORM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS TAPERING
OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL SEE RAPID CLEARING AS THE NOREASTER TRACKS OUT OF
THE AREA. THE HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH
ANOTHER WAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM... AND HAVE LEANED ON A WEAKER NORTHERLY TRACK FOR
THIS UPDATE. THE STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WITH CLEARING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
DECREASE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...AS COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SPREADS SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY SNOW AND WIDESPREAD
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WIND DOWN TUESDAY EVENING...BUT SNOW
LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY SEE NE GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE FOR
THIS EVENING. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN
THE BAYS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURE DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST.

LONG TERM...STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS TO THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAYS
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RELATIVELY LOW IN THE ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE HOWEVER
PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A STORM SURGE OF UP TO
2 FEET. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WAVES OF 15 TO 20 FEET OFF SHORE
AND MAY PRODUCE FLOODING AND SPLASHOVER AT HIGH TIDE. AT PORTLAND
HIGH TIDE IS 10.0 FT AT 420AM TUESDAY... 9.1FT AT 453PM TUESDAY
AND 9.8FT AT 523AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ002>009-011-012-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NHZ010-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KBOX 260259
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A MAJOR
AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND
LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM MORE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND SLOWLY DEEPENING LOW PRES NEAR N. CAROLINA MOST FORECAST
PARAMETERS ARE ON TRACK LATE THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO ENSURE THAT TIMING/HOURLY TEMPS AND DWPTS
WERE IN LINE WITH CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.  HOWEVER...INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE
COAST MAY PUT A STOP TO RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY.  THEREFORE...NOT
DROPPING TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THEY COULD BE IF SKIES REMAINED
CLEAR.  FORECASTING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BEFORE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT.  MOSTLY DRY/QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BUT DEFINITELY A DETERIORATING TREND.
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.  THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST MOVING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND MIDDAY.  HOWEVER...THE NAM/ECMWF ARE THE
PREFERRED SOLUTIONS FOR THE NOREASTER/BLIZZARD.  THESE SOLUTIONS
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SNOW MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  BECAUSE OF THIS...ONLY EXPECT A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY /7 PM MONDAY/.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS SE
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* HISTORIC AND POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING BLIZZARD MON NIGHT INTO TUE
  NIGHT
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL MULTI-MODEL AGREEMENT ON SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN LEADS US
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND POTENTIALLY
CRIPPLING BLIZZARD FOR SNE. POTENT NEG TILT SHORTWAVE DIVING TO SE
US COAST WILL RESULT IN SFC REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND
EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
LOW CLOSES OFF. HIGH PRES WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
PROVIDING A SOURCE OF COLD AIR AND ENHANCING BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG
THE COAST.  THE STORM EVENTUALLY GETS CAPTURED WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT NWD FROM NEAR THE BENCHMARK AND LONG DURATION
STORM.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE 850/700 MB LOWS AND
HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS THE AREA WHICH WILL IMPACT EXACTLY WHERE BEST
BANDING SETS UP...POTENTIAL DRY SLOT EASTERN NEW ENG AS WELL AS
PTYPE FOR CAPE/ISLANDS. WE THINK GFS IS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND A BIT
TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST WITH MID LEVEL LOW AND WE ARE LEANING TOWARD
ECMWF/NAM BLEND WHICH ARE REASONABLY CLOSE.

DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN MID LEVEL LOW TRACK...QPF IS PRETTY SIMILAR
WITH 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS SNE WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES.
PROBABLY LOOKING AT NEAR CLIMO SNOW LIQUID RATIOS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO
10:1 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NO MORE THAN 12-15:1 INTERIOR AS MID
LEVEL TEMPS IN THE SNOW PRODUCTION ZONE ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON BLIZZARD IN EASTERN NEW ENG SO WE ARE UPGRADING
WATCHES TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS. WE ARE ALSO EXPANDING THE BLIZZARD
WARNINGS TO N CT...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MA AND CAPE COD AND MVY.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR WESTERN MA AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT WIND
CRITERIA WILL BE MET.  AND FINALLY FOR ACK...WE KEPT THE WINTER
STORM WATCH AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT IN 6 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO PTYPE
ISSUES AND WE ALSO UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING.

1) PRECIP TYPE...

THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT
WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT ENOUGH WARMING FOR A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO
RAIN OVER ACK LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THIS WARMING POSSIBLY
REACHING THE OUTER CAPE FOR A TIME DURING TUE.  ECMWF IS PRETTY
BULLISH ON THIS WARMING AND NAM ALSO SHOWS IT BUT TO A LESSER
EXTENT.

2) HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND

SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY MON EVENING...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW
LIKELY DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS VERY IMPRESSIVE BANDING SIGNATURE DEVELOPS AND LIFTS N
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS OCCURS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF TO
THE SOUTH WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT ENHANCING FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. VERY STRONG OMEGA THROUGH THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE COMBINED WITH -EPV SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR 2-3"/HR SNOWFALL
RATES AND POCKETS OF THUNDER SNOW 06-15Z AS THE BAND LIFTS TO THE N.

MODELS SHOW BANDING SIGNATURE MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR WEST OF I-95
CORRIDOR DURING TUE AND PIVOTING FROM E-W TO NE-SW
CONFIGURATION...WHILE POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF E MA.
FORECASTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BANDING...WHERE IT PIVOTS AND
LOCATION OF THE DRY SLOT TUESDAY IS VERY CHALLENGING AND WILL
DETERMINE WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW SETS UP. THIS WILL DEPEND ON
THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL LOW.  ECMWF PUSHES THIS BAND ALL THE WAY
INTO WESTERN NEW ENG WHILE NAM IS CLOSER TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  WE
THINK IT WILL SET UP A LITTLE WEST OF I-95 ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
COASTAL FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE WE THINK HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUM WILL
BE.

POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 FEET OF SNOW IN THIS ZONE NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...
UP TO 2 FEET FAR W MA AND ALSO SE MA WHERE DRY SLOT MAY CUT BACK ON
SNOW ACCUM A TAD DESPITE HEAVIER QPF HERE. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON TO
FIND THE HEAVIEST SNOW A BIT NW OF MAX QPF AXIS BECAUSE OF WHERE THE
BANDING SETS UP. FOR THE CAPE AND MVY WE ARE LOOKING AT 10-18" WITH
HEAVIEST NEAR THE CANAL.  LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR ACK AND WE
HAVE UP TO 6 INCHES HERE BUT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER.

HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SE MA AND CAPE
COD WHERE THERE IS ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWN TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.  DRIER SNOW IN THE
INTERIOR.

VERY STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AS IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS N OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRES.  NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS 70-80 MPH FOR THE OUTER
CAPE AND ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WHEN
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR.  GUSTS TO 50-60 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS REST
OF SE MA EAST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR...AND 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITY LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN NEW ENG. THIS
IS A SERIOUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND TRAVEL IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED TONIGHT INTO TUE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE
TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
AND BANDING BECOMES FRACTURED...BUT LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE NIGHT GIVEN PROXIMITY OF MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH
SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHILE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE BLIZZARD...WE WILL
UPDATE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS TIME PERMITS.

SNOW COMES TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY /ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN GFS/
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
START OFF VFR WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
IFR CONDITIONS AND SNOW WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY...LIKELY AFTER 21Z. HOWEVER...THEY COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS
18Z.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIFR IN HEAVY
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST
WITH GUSTS 50-65 KTS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER...
FOCUSING ON THE UPCOMING NOREASTER/BLIZZARD...AND ASSOCIATED STORM
FORCE TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...HAVE
DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 30 FT
   AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY***

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 55 TO 65 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 30 FT OVER EASTERN WATERS. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS WITH STORM WARNING
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND MARINERS
SHOULD RETURN TO PORT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. HAVE UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE
TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY PRONE TO IT.
SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD
PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST
FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR EVEN A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE
STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260259
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A MAJOR
AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND
LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM MORE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND SLOWLY DEEPENING LOW PRES NEAR N. CAROLINA MOST FORECAST
PARAMETERS ARE ON TRACK LATE THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO ENSURE THAT TIMING/HOURLY TEMPS AND DWPTS
WERE IN LINE WITH CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.  HOWEVER...INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE
COAST MAY PUT A STOP TO RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY.  THEREFORE...NOT
DROPPING TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THEY COULD BE IF SKIES REMAINED
CLEAR.  FORECASTING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BEFORE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT.  MOSTLY DRY/QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BUT DEFINITELY A DETERIORATING TREND.
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.  THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST MOVING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND MIDDAY.  HOWEVER...THE NAM/ECMWF ARE THE
PREFERRED SOLUTIONS FOR THE NOREASTER/BLIZZARD.  THESE SOLUTIONS
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SNOW MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  BECAUSE OF THIS...ONLY EXPECT A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY /7 PM MONDAY/.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS SE
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* HISTORIC AND POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING BLIZZARD MON NIGHT INTO TUE
  NIGHT
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL MULTI-MODEL AGREEMENT ON SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN LEADS US
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND POTENTIALLY
CRIPPLING BLIZZARD FOR SNE. POTENT NEG TILT SHORTWAVE DIVING TO SE
US COAST WILL RESULT IN SFC REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND
EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
LOW CLOSES OFF. HIGH PRES WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
PROVIDING A SOURCE OF COLD AIR AND ENHANCING BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG
THE COAST.  THE STORM EVENTUALLY GETS CAPTURED WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT NWD FROM NEAR THE BENCHMARK AND LONG DURATION
STORM.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE 850/700 MB LOWS AND
HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS THE AREA WHICH WILL IMPACT EXACTLY WHERE BEST
BANDING SETS UP...POTENTIAL DRY SLOT EASTERN NEW ENG AS WELL AS
PTYPE FOR CAPE/ISLANDS. WE THINK GFS IS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND A BIT
TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST WITH MID LEVEL LOW AND WE ARE LEANING TOWARD
ECMWF/NAM BLEND WHICH ARE REASONABLY CLOSE.

DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN MID LEVEL LOW TRACK...QPF IS PRETTY SIMILAR
WITH 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS SNE WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES.
PROBABLY LOOKING AT NEAR CLIMO SNOW LIQUID RATIOS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO
10:1 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NO MORE THAN 12-15:1 INTERIOR AS MID
LEVEL TEMPS IN THE SNOW PRODUCTION ZONE ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON BLIZZARD IN EASTERN NEW ENG SO WE ARE UPGRADING
WATCHES TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS. WE ARE ALSO EXPANDING THE BLIZZARD
WARNINGS TO N CT...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MA AND CAPE COD AND MVY.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR WESTERN MA AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT WIND
CRITERIA WILL BE MET.  AND FINALLY FOR ACK...WE KEPT THE WINTER
STORM WATCH AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT IN 6 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO PTYPE
ISSUES AND WE ALSO UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING.

1) PRECIP TYPE...

THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT
WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT ENOUGH WARMING FOR A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO
RAIN OVER ACK LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THIS WARMING POSSIBLY
REACHING THE OUTER CAPE FOR A TIME DURING TUE.  ECMWF IS PRETTY
BULLISH ON THIS WARMING AND NAM ALSO SHOWS IT BUT TO A LESSER
EXTENT.

2) HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND

SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY MON EVENING...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW
LIKELY DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS VERY IMPRESSIVE BANDING SIGNATURE DEVELOPS AND LIFTS N
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS OCCURS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF TO
THE SOUTH WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT ENHANCING FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. VERY STRONG OMEGA THROUGH THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE COMBINED WITH -EPV SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR 2-3"/HR SNOWFALL
RATES AND POCKETS OF THUNDER SNOW 06-15Z AS THE BAND LIFTS TO THE N.

MODELS SHOW BANDING SIGNATURE MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR WEST OF I-95
CORRIDOR DURING TUE AND PIVOTING FROM E-W TO NE-SW
CONFIGURATION...WHILE POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF E MA.
FORECASTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BANDING...WHERE IT PIVOTS AND
LOCATION OF THE DRY SLOT TUESDAY IS VERY CHALLENGING AND WILL
DETERMINE WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW SETS UP. THIS WILL DEPEND ON
THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL LOW.  ECMWF PUSHES THIS BAND ALL THE WAY
INTO WESTERN NEW ENG WHILE NAM IS CLOSER TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  WE
THINK IT WILL SET UP A LITTLE WEST OF I-95 ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
COASTAL FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE WE THINK HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUM WILL
BE.

POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 FEET OF SNOW IN THIS ZONE NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...
UP TO 2 FEET FAR W MA AND ALSO SE MA WHERE DRY SLOT MAY CUT BACK ON
SNOW ACCUM A TAD DESPITE HEAVIER QPF HERE. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON TO
FIND THE HEAVIEST SNOW A BIT NW OF MAX QPF AXIS BECAUSE OF WHERE THE
BANDING SETS UP. FOR THE CAPE AND MVY WE ARE LOOKING AT 10-18" WITH
HEAVIEST NEAR THE CANAL.  LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR ACK AND WE
HAVE UP TO 6 INCHES HERE BUT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER.

HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SE MA AND CAPE
COD WHERE THERE IS ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWN TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.  DRIER SNOW IN THE
INTERIOR.

VERY STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AS IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS N OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRES.  NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS 70-80 MPH FOR THE OUTER
CAPE AND ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WHEN
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR.  GUSTS TO 50-60 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS REST
OF SE MA EAST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR...AND 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITY LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN NEW ENG. THIS
IS A SERIOUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND TRAVEL IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED TONIGHT INTO TUE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE
TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
AND BANDING BECOMES FRACTURED...BUT LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE NIGHT GIVEN PROXIMITY OF MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH
SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHILE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE BLIZZARD...WE WILL
UPDATE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS TIME PERMITS.

SNOW COMES TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY /ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN GFS/
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
START OFF VFR WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
IFR CONDITIONS AND SNOW WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY...LIKELY AFTER 21Z. HOWEVER...THEY COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS
18Z.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIFR IN HEAVY
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST
WITH GUSTS 50-65 KTS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER...
FOCUSING ON THE UPCOMING NOREASTER/BLIZZARD...AND ASSOCIATED STORM
FORCE TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...HAVE
DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 30 FT
   AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY***

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 55 TO 65 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 30 FT OVER EASTERN WATERS. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS WITH STORM WARNING
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND MARINERS
SHOULD RETURN TO PORT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. HAVE UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE
TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY PRONE TO IT.
SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD
PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST
FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR EVEN A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE
STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260259
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A MAJOR
AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND
LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM MORE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND SLOWLY DEEPENING LOW PRES NEAR N. CAROLINA MOST FORECAST
PARAMETERS ARE ON TRACK LATE THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO ENSURE THAT TIMING/HOURLY TEMPS AND DWPTS
WERE IN LINE WITH CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.  HOWEVER...INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE
COAST MAY PUT A STOP TO RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY.  THEREFORE...NOT
DROPPING TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THEY COULD BE IF SKIES REMAINED
CLEAR.  FORECASTING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BEFORE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT.  MOSTLY DRY/QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BUT DEFINITELY A DETERIORATING TREND.
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.  THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST MOVING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND MIDDAY.  HOWEVER...THE NAM/ECMWF ARE THE
PREFERRED SOLUTIONS FOR THE NOREASTER/BLIZZARD.  THESE SOLUTIONS
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SNOW MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  BECAUSE OF THIS...ONLY EXPECT A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY /7 PM MONDAY/.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS SE
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* HISTORIC AND POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING BLIZZARD MON NIGHT INTO TUE
  NIGHT
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL MULTI-MODEL AGREEMENT ON SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN LEADS US
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND POTENTIALLY
CRIPPLING BLIZZARD FOR SNE. POTENT NEG TILT SHORTWAVE DIVING TO SE
US COAST WILL RESULT IN SFC REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND
EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
LOW CLOSES OFF. HIGH PRES WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
PROVIDING A SOURCE OF COLD AIR AND ENHANCING BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG
THE COAST.  THE STORM EVENTUALLY GETS CAPTURED WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT NWD FROM NEAR THE BENCHMARK AND LONG DURATION
STORM.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE 850/700 MB LOWS AND
HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS THE AREA WHICH WILL IMPACT EXACTLY WHERE BEST
BANDING SETS UP...POTENTIAL DRY SLOT EASTERN NEW ENG AS WELL AS
PTYPE FOR CAPE/ISLANDS. WE THINK GFS IS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND A BIT
TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST WITH MID LEVEL LOW AND WE ARE LEANING TOWARD
ECMWF/NAM BLEND WHICH ARE REASONABLY CLOSE.

DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN MID LEVEL LOW TRACK...QPF IS PRETTY SIMILAR
WITH 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS SNE WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES.
PROBABLY LOOKING AT NEAR CLIMO SNOW LIQUID RATIOS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO
10:1 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NO MORE THAN 12-15:1 INTERIOR AS MID
LEVEL TEMPS IN THE SNOW PRODUCTION ZONE ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON BLIZZARD IN EASTERN NEW ENG SO WE ARE UPGRADING
WATCHES TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS. WE ARE ALSO EXPANDING THE BLIZZARD
WARNINGS TO N CT...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MA AND CAPE COD AND MVY.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR WESTERN MA AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT WIND
CRITERIA WILL BE MET.  AND FINALLY FOR ACK...WE KEPT THE WINTER
STORM WATCH AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT IN 6 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO PTYPE
ISSUES AND WE ALSO UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING.

1) PRECIP TYPE...

THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT
WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT ENOUGH WARMING FOR A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO
RAIN OVER ACK LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THIS WARMING POSSIBLY
REACHING THE OUTER CAPE FOR A TIME DURING TUE.  ECMWF IS PRETTY
BULLISH ON THIS WARMING AND NAM ALSO SHOWS IT BUT TO A LESSER
EXTENT.

2) HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND

SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY MON EVENING...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW
LIKELY DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS VERY IMPRESSIVE BANDING SIGNATURE DEVELOPS AND LIFTS N
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS OCCURS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF TO
THE SOUTH WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT ENHANCING FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. VERY STRONG OMEGA THROUGH THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE COMBINED WITH -EPV SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR 2-3"/HR SNOWFALL
RATES AND POCKETS OF THUNDER SNOW 06-15Z AS THE BAND LIFTS TO THE N.

MODELS SHOW BANDING SIGNATURE MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR WEST OF I-95
CORRIDOR DURING TUE AND PIVOTING FROM E-W TO NE-SW
CONFIGURATION...WHILE POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF E MA.
FORECASTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BANDING...WHERE IT PIVOTS AND
LOCATION OF THE DRY SLOT TUESDAY IS VERY CHALLENGING AND WILL
DETERMINE WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW SETS UP. THIS WILL DEPEND ON
THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL LOW.  ECMWF PUSHES THIS BAND ALL THE WAY
INTO WESTERN NEW ENG WHILE NAM IS CLOSER TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  WE
THINK IT WILL SET UP A LITTLE WEST OF I-95 ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
COASTAL FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE WE THINK HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUM WILL
BE.

POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 FEET OF SNOW IN THIS ZONE NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...
UP TO 2 FEET FAR W MA AND ALSO SE MA WHERE DRY SLOT MAY CUT BACK ON
SNOW ACCUM A TAD DESPITE HEAVIER QPF HERE. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON TO
FIND THE HEAVIEST SNOW A BIT NW OF MAX QPF AXIS BECAUSE OF WHERE THE
BANDING SETS UP. FOR THE CAPE AND MVY WE ARE LOOKING AT 10-18" WITH
HEAVIEST NEAR THE CANAL.  LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR ACK AND WE
HAVE UP TO 6 INCHES HERE BUT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER.

HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SE MA AND CAPE
COD WHERE THERE IS ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWN TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.  DRIER SNOW IN THE
INTERIOR.

VERY STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AS IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS N OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRES.  NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS 70-80 MPH FOR THE OUTER
CAPE AND ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WHEN
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR.  GUSTS TO 50-60 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS REST
OF SE MA EAST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR...AND 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITY LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN NEW ENG. THIS
IS A SERIOUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND TRAVEL IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED TONIGHT INTO TUE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE
TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
AND BANDING BECOMES FRACTURED...BUT LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE NIGHT GIVEN PROXIMITY OF MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH
SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHILE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE BLIZZARD...WE WILL
UPDATE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS TIME PERMITS.

SNOW COMES TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY /ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN GFS/
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
START OFF VFR WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
IFR CONDITIONS AND SNOW WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY...LIKELY AFTER 21Z. HOWEVER...THEY COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS
18Z.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIFR IN HEAVY
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST
WITH GUSTS 50-65 KTS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER...
FOCUSING ON THE UPCOMING NOREASTER/BLIZZARD...AND ASSOCIATED STORM
FORCE TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...HAVE
DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 30 FT
   AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY***

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 55 TO 65 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 30 FT OVER EASTERN WATERS. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS WITH STORM WARNING
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND MARINERS
SHOULD RETURN TO PORT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. HAVE UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE
TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY PRONE TO IT.
SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD
PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST
FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR EVEN A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE
STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260259
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A MAJOR
AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND
LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM MORE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND SLOWLY DEEPENING LOW PRES NEAR N. CAROLINA MOST FORECAST
PARAMETERS ARE ON TRACK LATE THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO ENSURE THAT TIMING/HOURLY TEMPS AND DWPTS
WERE IN LINE WITH CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.  HOWEVER...INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE
COAST MAY PUT A STOP TO RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY.  THEREFORE...NOT
DROPPING TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THEY COULD BE IF SKIES REMAINED
CLEAR.  FORECASTING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BEFORE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT.  MOSTLY DRY/QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BUT DEFINITELY A DETERIORATING TREND.
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.  THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST MOVING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND MIDDAY.  HOWEVER...THE NAM/ECMWF ARE THE
PREFERRED SOLUTIONS FOR THE NOREASTER/BLIZZARD.  THESE SOLUTIONS
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SNOW MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  BECAUSE OF THIS...ONLY EXPECT A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY /7 PM MONDAY/.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS SE
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* HISTORIC AND POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING BLIZZARD MON NIGHT INTO TUE
  NIGHT
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL MULTI-MODEL AGREEMENT ON SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN LEADS US
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND POTENTIALLY
CRIPPLING BLIZZARD FOR SNE. POTENT NEG TILT SHORTWAVE DIVING TO SE
US COAST WILL RESULT IN SFC REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND
EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
LOW CLOSES OFF. HIGH PRES WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
PROVIDING A SOURCE OF COLD AIR AND ENHANCING BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG
THE COAST.  THE STORM EVENTUALLY GETS CAPTURED WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT NWD FROM NEAR THE BENCHMARK AND LONG DURATION
STORM.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE 850/700 MB LOWS AND
HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS THE AREA WHICH WILL IMPACT EXACTLY WHERE BEST
BANDING SETS UP...POTENTIAL DRY SLOT EASTERN NEW ENG AS WELL AS
PTYPE FOR CAPE/ISLANDS. WE THINK GFS IS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND A BIT
TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST WITH MID LEVEL LOW AND WE ARE LEANING TOWARD
ECMWF/NAM BLEND WHICH ARE REASONABLY CLOSE.

DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN MID LEVEL LOW TRACK...QPF IS PRETTY SIMILAR
WITH 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS SNE WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES.
PROBABLY LOOKING AT NEAR CLIMO SNOW LIQUID RATIOS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO
10:1 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NO MORE THAN 12-15:1 INTERIOR AS MID
LEVEL TEMPS IN THE SNOW PRODUCTION ZONE ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON BLIZZARD IN EASTERN NEW ENG SO WE ARE UPGRADING
WATCHES TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS. WE ARE ALSO EXPANDING THE BLIZZARD
WARNINGS TO N CT...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MA AND CAPE COD AND MVY.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR WESTERN MA AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT WIND
CRITERIA WILL BE MET.  AND FINALLY FOR ACK...WE KEPT THE WINTER
STORM WATCH AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT IN 6 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO PTYPE
ISSUES AND WE ALSO UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING.

1) PRECIP TYPE...

THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT
WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT ENOUGH WARMING FOR A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO
RAIN OVER ACK LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THIS WARMING POSSIBLY
REACHING THE OUTER CAPE FOR A TIME DURING TUE.  ECMWF IS PRETTY
BULLISH ON THIS WARMING AND NAM ALSO SHOWS IT BUT TO A LESSER
EXTENT.

2) HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND

SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY MON EVENING...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW
LIKELY DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS VERY IMPRESSIVE BANDING SIGNATURE DEVELOPS AND LIFTS N
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS OCCURS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF TO
THE SOUTH WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT ENHANCING FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. VERY STRONG OMEGA THROUGH THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE COMBINED WITH -EPV SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR 2-3"/HR SNOWFALL
RATES AND POCKETS OF THUNDER SNOW 06-15Z AS THE BAND LIFTS TO THE N.

MODELS SHOW BANDING SIGNATURE MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR WEST OF I-95
CORRIDOR DURING TUE AND PIVOTING FROM E-W TO NE-SW
CONFIGURATION...WHILE POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF E MA.
FORECASTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BANDING...WHERE IT PIVOTS AND
LOCATION OF THE DRY SLOT TUESDAY IS VERY CHALLENGING AND WILL
DETERMINE WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW SETS UP. THIS WILL DEPEND ON
THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL LOW.  ECMWF PUSHES THIS BAND ALL THE WAY
INTO WESTERN NEW ENG WHILE NAM IS CLOSER TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  WE
THINK IT WILL SET UP A LITTLE WEST OF I-95 ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
COASTAL FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE WE THINK HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUM WILL
BE.

POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 FEET OF SNOW IN THIS ZONE NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...
UP TO 2 FEET FAR W MA AND ALSO SE MA WHERE DRY SLOT MAY CUT BACK ON
SNOW ACCUM A TAD DESPITE HEAVIER QPF HERE. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON TO
FIND THE HEAVIEST SNOW A BIT NW OF MAX QPF AXIS BECAUSE OF WHERE THE
BANDING SETS UP. FOR THE CAPE AND MVY WE ARE LOOKING AT 10-18" WITH
HEAVIEST NEAR THE CANAL.  LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR ACK AND WE
HAVE UP TO 6 INCHES HERE BUT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER.

HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SE MA AND CAPE
COD WHERE THERE IS ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWN TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.  DRIER SNOW IN THE
INTERIOR.

VERY STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AS IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS N OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRES.  NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS 70-80 MPH FOR THE OUTER
CAPE AND ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WHEN
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR.  GUSTS TO 50-60 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS REST
OF SE MA EAST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR...AND 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITY LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN NEW ENG. THIS
IS A SERIOUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND TRAVEL IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED TONIGHT INTO TUE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE
TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
AND BANDING BECOMES FRACTURED...BUT LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE NIGHT GIVEN PROXIMITY OF MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH
SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHILE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE BLIZZARD...WE WILL
UPDATE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS TIME PERMITS.

SNOW COMES TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY /ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN GFS/
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
START OFF VFR WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
IFR CONDITIONS AND SNOW WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY...LIKELY AFTER 21Z. HOWEVER...THEY COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS
18Z.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIFR IN HEAVY
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST
WITH GUSTS 50-65 KTS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER...
FOCUSING ON THE UPCOMING NOREASTER/BLIZZARD...AND ASSOCIATED STORM
FORCE TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...HAVE
DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 30 FT
   AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY***

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 55 TO 65 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 30 FT OVER EASTERN WATERS. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS WITH STORM WARNING
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND MARINERS
SHOULD RETURN TO PORT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. HAVE UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE
TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY PRONE TO IT.
SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD
PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST
FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR EVEN A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE
STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 252340
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
640 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY THEN RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
630PM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CORRECT A FEW HOURLY TEMPERATURES FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE TONIGHT`S FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH A CLEAR SKY AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN LEADING TO A COLD
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE OR BELOW
ZERO.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CROSSED THE REGION TODAY BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES
OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 BELOW IN THE NORTH
HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD DECREASE KEEPING WIND CHILLS ABOVE ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL VERY BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE COASTAL STORM/ MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL ALREADY BE AFFECTING NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION SPREADS SNOW NORTHWARD.
POTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO 983 MB BY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVERHEAD. THE
STORM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 12 HRS AS THE TROUGH
BATTLES WITH DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. THIS STALLING IS KEY TO THE
AMOUNT OF QPF AND ULTIMATELY SNOW THAT WILL FALL OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE CHARACTER OF THE SNOW WILL BE FLUFFY AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY. WENT WITH A 15:1 RATIO
ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE GONE HIGHER.

THE MESOSCALE BANDING IS HIGHLIGHTED BY PETERSSON FRONTOGENESIS...
WHICH SHOWS THE BEST BANDING SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS BEFORE CURVING NE THROUGH SOUTHERN NH NEAR
CHICHESTER... AND THEN ENE TOWARDS FRYEBURG AND WATERVILLE MAINE.
THIS WILL BE CONSISTENT WITH THE COASTAL/WARM FRONT AS IT TRIES TO
WORK ITS WAY INLAND. ITS IN THIS BAND WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS WILL FALL... LIKELY AROUND TWO FEET. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
MAY BE FOUND IN SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE WHERE THE FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING COINCIDES WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.

GEFS AND NAM ANOMALIES FOR 925 AND 850 MB U AND EVEN V WIND
COMPONENTS OF MORE THAN 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL SHOW
THIS STORM WILL PACK VERY STRONG WINDS... LIKELY CAUSING WIND
DAMAGE AS THESE WINDS MIX EASILY TO THE SURFACE IN PRECIPITATION
LOADING. FOR THIS REASON FELT CONFIDENT GOING WITH BLIZZARD
WARNINGS FOR THE COAST AND THOSE COUNTIES ALONG THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE... WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 10-20" WARRANTS WINTER
WEATHER WARNINGS. OVER THE WATERS WE HAVE ISSUED GALES AND STORM
FORCE WARNINGS. SHADOWING ON THE WESTWARD SLOPES OF THE WHITES
SHOULD GIVE SOMEWHAT LOWER TOTALS TO ADJOINING COUNTIES.. AND FOR
THIS REASON HAVE GONE WITH ONLY AN ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN COOS. THE
STORM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS TAPERING
OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL SEE RAPID CLEARING AS THE NOREASTER TRACKS OUT OF
THE AREA. THE HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH
ANOTHER WAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM... AND HAVE LEANED ON A WEAKER NORTHERLY TRACK FOR
THIS UPDATE. THE STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WITH CLEARING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
DECREASE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...AS COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SPREADS SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY SNOW AND WIDESPREAD
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WIND DOWN TUESDAY EVENING...BUT SNOW
LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY SEE NE GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE FOR
THIS EVENING. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN
THE BAYS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURE DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST.

LONG TERM...STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS TO THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAYS
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RELATIVELY LOW IN THE ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE HOWEVER
PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A STORM SURGE OF UP TO
2 FEET. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WAVES OF 15 TO 20 FEET OFF SHORE
AND MAY PRODUCE FLOODING AND SPLASHOVER AT HIGH TIDE. AT PORTLAND
HIGH TIDE IS 10.0 FT AT 420AM TUESDAY... 9.1FT AT 453PM TUESDAY
AND 9.8FT AT 523AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ002>009-011-012-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NHZ010-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM UPDATE...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...HANES
LONG TERM...CURTIS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 252340
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
640 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY THEN RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
630PM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CORRECT A FEW HOURLY TEMPERATURES FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE TONIGHT`S FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH A CLEAR SKY AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN LEADING TO A COLD
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE OR BELOW
ZERO.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CROSSED THE REGION TODAY BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES
OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 BELOW IN THE NORTH
HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD DECREASE KEEPING WIND CHILLS ABOVE ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL VERY BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE COASTAL STORM/ MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL ALREADY BE AFFECTING NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION SPREADS SNOW NORTHWARD.
POTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO 983 MB BY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVERHEAD. THE
STORM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 12 HRS AS THE TROUGH
BATTLES WITH DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. THIS STALLING IS KEY TO THE
AMOUNT OF QPF AND ULTIMATELY SNOW THAT WILL FALL OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE CHARACTER OF THE SNOW WILL BE FLUFFY AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY. WENT WITH A 15:1 RATIO
ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE GONE HIGHER.

THE MESOSCALE BANDING IS HIGHLIGHTED BY PETERSSON FRONTOGENESIS...
WHICH SHOWS THE BEST BANDING SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS BEFORE CURVING NE THROUGH SOUTHERN NH NEAR
CHICHESTER... AND THEN ENE TOWARDS FRYEBURG AND WATERVILLE MAINE.
THIS WILL BE CONSISTENT WITH THE COASTAL/WARM FRONT AS IT TRIES TO
WORK ITS WAY INLAND. ITS IN THIS BAND WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS WILL FALL... LIKELY AROUND TWO FEET. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
MAY BE FOUND IN SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE WHERE THE FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING COINCIDES WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.

GEFS AND NAM ANOMALIES FOR 925 AND 850 MB U AND EVEN V WIND
COMPONENTS OF MORE THAN 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL SHOW
THIS STORM WILL PACK VERY STRONG WINDS... LIKELY CAUSING WIND
DAMAGE AS THESE WINDS MIX EASILY TO THE SURFACE IN PRECIPITATION
LOADING. FOR THIS REASON FELT CONFIDENT GOING WITH BLIZZARD
WARNINGS FOR THE COAST AND THOSE COUNTIES ALONG THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE... WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 10-20" WARRANTS WINTER
WEATHER WARNINGS. OVER THE WATERS WE HAVE ISSUED GALES AND STORM
FORCE WARNINGS. SHADOWING ON THE WESTWARD SLOPES OF THE WHITES
SHOULD GIVE SOMEWHAT LOWER TOTALS TO ADJOINING COUNTIES.. AND FOR
THIS REASON HAVE GONE WITH ONLY AN ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN COOS. THE
STORM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS TAPERING
OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL SEE RAPID CLEARING AS THE NOREASTER TRACKS OUT OF
THE AREA. THE HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH
ANOTHER WAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM... AND HAVE LEANED ON A WEAKER NORTHERLY TRACK FOR
THIS UPDATE. THE STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WITH CLEARING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
DECREASE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...AS COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SPREADS SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY SNOW AND WIDESPREAD
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WIND DOWN TUESDAY EVENING...BUT SNOW
LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY SEE NE GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE FOR
THIS EVENING. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN
THE BAYS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURE DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST.

LONG TERM...STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS TO THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAYS
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RELATIVELY LOW IN THE ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE HOWEVER
PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A STORM SURGE OF UP TO
2 FEET. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WAVES OF 15 TO 20 FEET OFF SHORE
AND MAY PRODUCE FLOODING AND SPLASHOVER AT HIGH TIDE. AT PORTLAND
HIGH TIDE IS 10.0 FT AT 420AM TUESDAY... 9.1FT AT 453PM TUESDAY
AND 9.8FT AT 523AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ002>009-011-012-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NHZ010-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM UPDATE...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...HANES
LONG TERM...CURTIS



000
FXUS61 KBOX 252329
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
629 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A MAJOR
AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND
LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING INTO THE 20S THIS
EVENING UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE STILL
GUSTY MAKING IT FEEL COOLER THAN IT IS. MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO
THE TEMPERATURES AND SKY FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
TRENDS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.  HOWEVER...INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE
COAST MAY PUT A STOP TO RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY.  THEREFORE...NOT
DROPPING TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THEY COULD BE IF SKIES REMAINED
CLEAR.  FORECASTING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BEFORE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT.  MOSTLY DRY/QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BUT DEFINITELY A DETERIORATING TREND.
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.  THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST MOVING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND MIDDAY.  HOWEVER...THE NAM/ECMWF ARE THE
PREFERRED SOLUTIONS FOR THE NOREASTER/BLIZZARD.  THESE SOLUTIONS
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SNOW MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  BECAUSE OF THIS...ONLY EXPECT A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY /7 PM MONDAY/.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS SE
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* HISTORIC AND POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING BLIZZARD MON NIGHT INTO TUE
  NIGHT
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL MULTI-MODEL AGREEMENT ON SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN LEADS US
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND POTENTIALLY
CRIPPLING BLIZZARD FOR SNE. POTENT NEG TILT SHORTWAVE DIVING TO SE
US COAST WILL RESULT IN SFC REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND
EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
LOW CLOSES OFF. HIGH PRES WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
PROVIDING A SOURCE OF COLD AIR AND ENHANCING BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG
THE COAST.  THE STORM EVENTUALLY GETS CAPTURED WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT NWD FROM NEAR THE BENCHMARK AND LONG DURATION
STORM.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE 850/700 MB LOWS AND
HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS THE AREA WHICH WILL IMPACT EXACTLY WHERE BEST
BANDING SETS UP...POTENTIAL DRY SLOT EASTERN NEW ENG AS WELL AS
PTYPE FOR CAPE/ISLANDS. WE THINK GFS IS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND A BIT
TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST WITH MID LEVEL LOW AND WE ARE LEANING TOWARD
ECMWF/NAM BLEND WHICH ARE REASONABLY CLOSE.

DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN MID LEVEL LOW TRACK...QPF IS PRETTY SIMILAR
WITH 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS SNE WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES.
PROBABLY LOOKING AT NEAR CLIMO SNOW LIQUID RATIOS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO
10:1 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NO MORE THAN 12-15:1 INTERIOR AS MID
LEVEL TEMPS IN THE SNOW PRODUCTION ZONE ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON BLIZZARD IN EASTERN NEW ENG SO WE ARE UPGRADING
WATCHES TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS. WE ARE ALSO EXPANDING THE BLIZZARD
WARNINGS TO N CT...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MA AND CAPE COD AND MVY.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR WESTERN MA AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT WIND
CRITERIA WILL BE MET.  AND FINALLY FOR ACK...WE KEPT THE WINTER
STORM WATCH AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT IN 6 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO PTYPE
ISSUES AND WE ALSO UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING.

1) PRECIP TYPE...

THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT
WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT ENOUGH WARMING FOR A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO
RAIN OVER ACK LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THIS WARMING POSSIBLY
REACHING THE OUTER CAPE FOR A TIME DURING TUE.  ECMWF IS PRETTY
BULLISH ON THIS WARMING AND NAM ALSO SHOWS IT BUT TO A LESSER
EXTENT.

2) HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND

SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY MON EVENING...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW
LIKELY DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS VERY IMPRESSIVE BANDING SIGNATURE DEVELOPS AND LIFTS N
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS OCCURS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF TO
THE SOUTH WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT ENHANCING FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. VERY STRONG OMEGA THROUGH THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE COMBINED WITH -EPV SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR 2-3"/HR SNOWFALL
RATES AND POCKETS OF THUNDER SNOW 06-15Z AS THE BAND LIFTS TO THE N.

MODELS SHOW BANDING SIGNATURE MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR WEST OF I-95
CORRIDOR DURING TUE AND PIVOTING FROM E-W TO NE-SW
CONFIGURATION...WHILE POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF E MA.
FORECASTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BANDING...WHERE IT PIVOTS AND
LOCATION OF THE DRY SLOT TUESDAY IS VERY CHALLENGING AND WILL
DETERMINE WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW SETS UP. THIS WILL DEPEND ON
THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL LOW.  ECMWF PUSHES THIS BAND ALL THE WAY
INTO WESTERN NEW ENG WHILE NAM IS CLOSER TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  WE
THINK IT WILL SET UP A LITTLE WEST OF I-95 ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
COASTAL FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE WE THINK HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUM WILL
BE.

POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 FEET OF SNOW IN THIS ZONE NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...
UP TO 2 FEET FAR W MA AND ALSO SE MA WHERE DRY SLOT MAY CUT BACK ON
SNOW ACCUM A TAD DESPITE HEAVIER QPF HERE. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON TO
FIND THE HEAVIEST SNOW A BIT NW OF MAX QPF AXIS BECAUSE OF WHERE THE
BANDING SETS UP. FOR THE CAPE AND MVY WE ARE LOOKING AT 10-18" WITH
HEAVIEST NEAR THE CANAL.  LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR ACK AND WE
HAVE UP TO 6 INCHES HERE BUT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER.

HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SE MA AND CAPE
COD WHERE THERE IS ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWN TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.  DRIER SNOW IN THE
INTERIOR.

VERY STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AS IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS N OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRES.  NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS 70-80 MPH FOR THE OUTER
CAPE AND ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WHEN
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR.  GUSTS TO 50-60 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS REST
OF SE MA EAST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR...AND 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITY LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN NEW ENG. THIS
IS A SERIOUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND TRAVEL IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED TONIGHT INTO TUE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE
TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
AND BANDING BECOMES FRACTURED...BUT LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE NIGHT GIVEN PROXIMITY OF MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH
SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHILE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE BLIZZARD...WE WILL
UPDATE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS TIME PERMITS.

SNOW COMES TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY /ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN GFS/
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
START OFF VFR WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
IFR CONDITIONS AND SNOW WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY...LIKELY AFTER 21Z. HOWEVER...THEY COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS
18Z.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIFR IN HEAVY
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST
WITH GUSTS 50-65 KTS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER...
FOCUSING ON THE UPCOMING NOREASTER/BLIZZARD...AND ASSOCIATED STORM
FORCE TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...HAVE
DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 30 FT
   AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY***

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 55 TO 65 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 30 FT OVER EASTERN WATERS. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS WITH STORM WARNING
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND MARINERS
SHOULD RETURN TO PORT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. HAVE UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE
TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY PRONE TO IT.
SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD
PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST
FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR EVEN A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE
STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RMT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 252329
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
629 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A MAJOR
AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND
LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING INTO THE 20S THIS
EVENING UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE STILL
GUSTY MAKING IT FEEL COOLER THAN IT IS. MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO
THE TEMPERATURES AND SKY FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
TRENDS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.  HOWEVER...INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE
COAST MAY PUT A STOP TO RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY.  THEREFORE...NOT
DROPPING TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THEY COULD BE IF SKIES REMAINED
CLEAR.  FORECASTING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BEFORE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT.  MOSTLY DRY/QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BUT DEFINITELY A DETERIORATING TREND.
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.  THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST MOVING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND MIDDAY.  HOWEVER...THE NAM/ECMWF ARE THE
PREFERRED SOLUTIONS FOR THE NOREASTER/BLIZZARD.  THESE SOLUTIONS
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SNOW MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  BECAUSE OF THIS...ONLY EXPECT A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY /7 PM MONDAY/.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS SE
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* HISTORIC AND POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING BLIZZARD MON NIGHT INTO TUE
  NIGHT
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL MULTI-MODEL AGREEMENT ON SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN LEADS US
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND POTENTIALLY
CRIPPLING BLIZZARD FOR SNE. POTENT NEG TILT SHORTWAVE DIVING TO SE
US COAST WILL RESULT IN SFC REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND
EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
LOW CLOSES OFF. HIGH PRES WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
PROVIDING A SOURCE OF COLD AIR AND ENHANCING BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG
THE COAST.  THE STORM EVENTUALLY GETS CAPTURED WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT NWD FROM NEAR THE BENCHMARK AND LONG DURATION
STORM.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE 850/700 MB LOWS AND
HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS THE AREA WHICH WILL IMPACT EXACTLY WHERE BEST
BANDING SETS UP...POTENTIAL DRY SLOT EASTERN NEW ENG AS WELL AS
PTYPE FOR CAPE/ISLANDS. WE THINK GFS IS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND A BIT
TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST WITH MID LEVEL LOW AND WE ARE LEANING TOWARD
ECMWF/NAM BLEND WHICH ARE REASONABLY CLOSE.

DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN MID LEVEL LOW TRACK...QPF IS PRETTY SIMILAR
WITH 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS SNE WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES.
PROBABLY LOOKING AT NEAR CLIMO SNOW LIQUID RATIOS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO
10:1 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NO MORE THAN 12-15:1 INTERIOR AS MID
LEVEL TEMPS IN THE SNOW PRODUCTION ZONE ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON BLIZZARD IN EASTERN NEW ENG SO WE ARE UPGRADING
WATCHES TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS. WE ARE ALSO EXPANDING THE BLIZZARD
WARNINGS TO N CT...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MA AND CAPE COD AND MVY.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR WESTERN MA AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT WIND
CRITERIA WILL BE MET.  AND FINALLY FOR ACK...WE KEPT THE WINTER
STORM WATCH AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT IN 6 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO PTYPE
ISSUES AND WE ALSO UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING.

1) PRECIP TYPE...

THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT
WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT ENOUGH WARMING FOR A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO
RAIN OVER ACK LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THIS WARMING POSSIBLY
REACHING THE OUTER CAPE FOR A TIME DURING TUE.  ECMWF IS PRETTY
BULLISH ON THIS WARMING AND NAM ALSO SHOWS IT BUT TO A LESSER
EXTENT.

2) HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND

SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY MON EVENING...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW
LIKELY DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS VERY IMPRESSIVE BANDING SIGNATURE DEVELOPS AND LIFTS N
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS OCCURS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF TO
THE SOUTH WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT ENHANCING FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. VERY STRONG OMEGA THROUGH THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE COMBINED WITH -EPV SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR 2-3"/HR SNOWFALL
RATES AND POCKETS OF THUNDER SNOW 06-15Z AS THE BAND LIFTS TO THE N.

MODELS SHOW BANDING SIGNATURE MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR WEST OF I-95
CORRIDOR DURING TUE AND PIVOTING FROM E-W TO NE-SW
CONFIGURATION...WHILE POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF E MA.
FORECASTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BANDING...WHERE IT PIVOTS AND
LOCATION OF THE DRY SLOT TUESDAY IS VERY CHALLENGING AND WILL
DETERMINE WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW SETS UP. THIS WILL DEPEND ON
THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL LOW.  ECMWF PUSHES THIS BAND ALL THE WAY
INTO WESTERN NEW ENG WHILE NAM IS CLOSER TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  WE
THINK IT WILL SET UP A LITTLE WEST OF I-95 ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
COASTAL FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE WE THINK HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUM WILL
BE.

POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 FEET OF SNOW IN THIS ZONE NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...
UP TO 2 FEET FAR W MA AND ALSO SE MA WHERE DRY SLOT MAY CUT BACK ON
SNOW ACCUM A TAD DESPITE HEAVIER QPF HERE. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON TO
FIND THE HEAVIEST SNOW A BIT NW OF MAX QPF AXIS BECAUSE OF WHERE THE
BANDING SETS UP. FOR THE CAPE AND MVY WE ARE LOOKING AT 10-18" WITH
HEAVIEST NEAR THE CANAL.  LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR ACK AND WE
HAVE UP TO 6 INCHES HERE BUT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER.

HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SE MA AND CAPE
COD WHERE THERE IS ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWN TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.  DRIER SNOW IN THE
INTERIOR.

VERY STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AS IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS N OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRES.  NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS 70-80 MPH FOR THE OUTER
CAPE AND ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WHEN
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR.  GUSTS TO 50-60 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS REST
OF SE MA EAST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR...AND 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITY LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN NEW ENG. THIS
IS A SERIOUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND TRAVEL IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED TONIGHT INTO TUE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE
TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
AND BANDING BECOMES FRACTURED...BUT LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE NIGHT GIVEN PROXIMITY OF MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH
SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHILE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE BLIZZARD...WE WILL
UPDATE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS TIME PERMITS.

SNOW COMES TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY /ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN GFS/
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
START OFF VFR WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
IFR CONDITIONS AND SNOW WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY...LIKELY AFTER 21Z. HOWEVER...THEY COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS
18Z.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIFR IN HEAVY
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST
WITH GUSTS 50-65 KTS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER...
FOCUSING ON THE UPCOMING NOREASTER/BLIZZARD...AND ASSOCIATED STORM
FORCE TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...HAVE
DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 30 FT
   AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY***

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 55 TO 65 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 30 FT OVER EASTERN WATERS. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS WITH STORM WARNING
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND MARINERS
SHOULD RETURN TO PORT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. HAVE UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE
TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY PRONE TO IT.
SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD
PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST
FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR EVEN A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE
STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RMT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 252133
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
433 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A MAJOR
AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND
LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
4 PM UPDATE...BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES. TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S COMBINED WITH THESE WINDS ARE
RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.  HOWEVER...INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE
COAST MAY PUT A STOP TO RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY.  THEREFORE...NOT
DROPPING TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THEY COULD BE IF SKIES REMAINED
CLEAR.  FORECASTING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BEFORE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT.  MOSTLY DRY/QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BUT DEFINITELY A DETERIORATING TREND.
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.  THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST MOVING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND MIDDAY.  HOWEVER...THE NAM/ECMWF ARE THE
PREFERRED SOLUTIONS FOR THE NOREASTER/BLIZZARD.  THESE SOLUTIONS
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SNOW MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  BECAUSE OF THIS...ONLY EXPECT A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY /7 PM MONDAY/.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS SE
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* HISTORIC AND POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING BLIZZARD MON NIGHT INTO TUE
  NIGHT
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL MULTI-MODEL AGREEMENT ON SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN LEADS US
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND POTENTIALLY
CRIPPLING BLIZZARD FOR SNE. POTENT NEG TILT SHORTWAVE DIVING TO SE
US COAST WILL RESULT IN SFC REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND
EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
LOW CLOSES OFF. HIGH PRES WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
PROVIDING A SOURCE OF COLD AIR AND ENHANCING BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG
THE COAST.  THE STORM EVENTUALLY GETS CAPTURED WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT NWD FROM NEAR THE BENCHMARK AND LONG DURATION
STORM.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE 850/700 MB LOWS AND
HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS THE AREA WHICH WILL IMPACT EXACTLY WHERE BEST
BANDING SETS UP...POTENTIAL DRY SLOT EASTERN NEW ENG AS WELL AS
PTYPE FOR CAPE/ISLANDS. WE THINK GFS IS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND A BIT
TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST WITH MID LEVEL LOW AND WE ARE LEANING TOWARD
ECMWF/NAM BLEND WHICH ARE REASONABLY CLOSE.

DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN MID LEVEL LOW TRACK...QPF IS PRETTY SIMILAR
WITH 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS SNE WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES.
PROBABLY LOOKING AT NEAR CLIMO SNOW LIQUID RATIOS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO
10:1 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NO MORE THAN 12-15:1 INTERIOR AS MID
LEVEL TEMPS IN THE SNOW PRODUCTION ZONE ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON BLIZZARD IN EASTERN NEW ENG SO WE ARE UPGRADING
WATCHES TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS. WE ARE ALSO EXPANDING THE BLIZZARD
WARNINGS TO N CT...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MA AND CAPE COD AND MVY.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR WESTERN MA AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT WIND
CRITERIA WILL BE MET.  AND FINALLY FOR ACK...WE KEPT THE WINTER
STORM WATCH AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT IN 6 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO PTYPE
ISSUES AND WE ALSO UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING.

1) PRECIP TYPE...

THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT
WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT ENOUGH WARMING FOR A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO
RAIN OVER ACK LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THIS WARMING POSSIBLY
REACHING THE OUTER CAPE FOR A TIME DURING TUE.  ECMWF IS PRETTY
BULLISH ON THIS WARMING AND NAM ALSO SHOWS IT BUT TO A LESSER
EXTENT.

2) HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND

SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY MON EVENING...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW
LIKELY DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS VERY IMPRESSIVE BANDING SIGNATURE DEVELOPS AND LIFTS N
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS OCCURS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF TO
THE SOUTH WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT ENHANCING FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. VERY STRONG OMEGA THROUGH THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE COMBINED WITH -EPV SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR 2-3"/HR SNOWFALL
RATES AND POCKETS OF THUNDER SNOW 06-15Z AS THE BAND LIFTS TO THE N.

MODELS SHOW BANDING SIGNATURE MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR WEST OF I-95
CORRIDOR DURING TUE AND PIVOTING FROM E-W TO NE-SW
CONFIGURATION...WHILE POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF E MA.
FORECASTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BANDING...WHERE IT PIVOTS AND
LOCATION OF THE DRY SLOT TUESDAY IS VERY CHALLENGING AND WILL
DETERMINE WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW SETS UP. THIS WILL DEPEND ON
THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL LOW.  ECMWF PUSHES THIS BAND ALL THE WAY
INTO WESTERN NEW ENG WHILE NAM IS CLOSER TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  WE
THINK IT WILL SET UP A LITTLE WEST OF I-95 ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
COASTAL FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE WE THINK HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUM WILL
BE.

POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 FEET OF SNOW IN THIS ZONE NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...
UP TO 2 FEET FAR W MA AND ALSO SE MA WHERE DRY SLOT MAY CUT BACK ON
SNOW ACCUM A TAD DESPITE HEAVIER QPF HERE. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON TO
FIND THE HEAVIEST SNOW A BIT NW OF MAX QPF AXIS BECAUSE OF WHERE THE
BANDING SETS UP. FOR THE CAPE AND MVY WE ARE LOOKING AT 10-18" WITH
HEAVIEST NEAR THE CANAL.  LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR ACK AND WE
HAVE UP TO 6 INCHES HERE BUT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER.

HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SE MA AND CAPE
COD WHERE THERE IS ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWN TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.  DRIER SNOW IN THE
INTERIOR.

VERY STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AS IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS N OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRES.  NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS 70-80 MPH FOR THE OUTER
CAPE AND ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WHEN
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR.  GUSTS TO 50-60 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS REST
OF SE MA EAST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR...AND 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITY LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN NEW ENG. THIS
IS A SERIOUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND TRAVEL IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED TONIGHT INTO TUE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE
TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
AND BANDING BECOMES FRACTURED...BUT LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE NIGHT GIVEN PROXIMITY OF MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH
SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WHILE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE BLIZZARD...WE WILL
UPDATE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS TIME PERMITS.

SNOW COMES TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY /ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN GFS/
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SCT-BKN040 POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY. W WINDS GUST TO 30 KTS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
START OFF VFR WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
IFR CONDITIONS AND SNOW WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY...LIKELY AFTER 21Z. HOWEVER...THEY COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS
18Z.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIFR IN HEAVY
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST
WITH GUSTS 50-65 KTS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER...
FOCUSING ON THE UPCOMING NOREASTER/BLIZZARD...AND ASSOCIATED STORM
FORCE TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...HAVE
DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 30 FT
   AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY***

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 55 TO 65 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 30 FT OVER EASTERN WATERS. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS WITH STORM WARNING
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND MARINERS
SHOULD RETURN TO PORT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. HAVE UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE
TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY PRONE TO IT.
SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD
PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST
FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR EVEN A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE
STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RMT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 252133
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
433 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A MAJOR
AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND
LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
4 PM UPDATE...BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES. TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S COMBINED WITH THESE WINDS ARE
RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.  HOWEVER...INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE
COAST MAY PUT A STOP TO RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY.  THEREFORE...NOT
DROPPING TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THEY COULD BE IF SKIES REMAINED
CLEAR.  FORECASTING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BEFORE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT.  MOSTLY DRY/QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BUT DEFINITELY A DETERIORATING TREND.
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.  THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST MOVING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND MIDDAY.  HOWEVER...THE NAM/ECMWF ARE THE
PREFERRED SOLUTIONS FOR THE NOREASTER/BLIZZARD.  THESE SOLUTIONS
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SNOW MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  BECAUSE OF THIS...ONLY EXPECT A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY /7 PM MONDAY/.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS SE
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* HISTORIC AND POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING BLIZZARD MON NIGHT INTO TUE
  NIGHT
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL MULTI-MODEL AGREEMENT ON SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN LEADS US
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND POTENTIALLY
CRIPPLING BLIZZARD FOR SNE. POTENT NEG TILT SHORTWAVE DIVING TO SE
US COAST WILL RESULT IN SFC REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND
EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
LOW CLOSES OFF. HIGH PRES WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
PROVIDING A SOURCE OF COLD AIR AND ENHANCING BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG
THE COAST.  THE STORM EVENTUALLY GETS CAPTURED WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT NWD FROM NEAR THE BENCHMARK AND LONG DURATION
STORM.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE 850/700 MB LOWS AND
HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS THE AREA WHICH WILL IMPACT EXACTLY WHERE BEST
BANDING SETS UP...POTENTIAL DRY SLOT EASTERN NEW ENG AS WELL AS
PTYPE FOR CAPE/ISLANDS. WE THINK GFS IS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND A BIT
TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST WITH MID LEVEL LOW AND WE ARE LEANING TOWARD
ECMWF/NAM BLEND WHICH ARE REASONABLY CLOSE.

DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN MID LEVEL LOW TRACK...QPF IS PRETTY SIMILAR
WITH 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS SNE WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES.
PROBABLY LOOKING AT NEAR CLIMO SNOW LIQUID RATIOS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO
10:1 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NO MORE THAN 12-15:1 INTERIOR AS MID
LEVEL TEMPS IN THE SNOW PRODUCTION ZONE ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON BLIZZARD IN EASTERN NEW ENG SO WE ARE UPGRADING
WATCHES TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS. WE ARE ALSO EXPANDING THE BLIZZARD
WARNINGS TO N CT...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MA AND CAPE COD AND MVY.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR WESTERN MA AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT WIND
CRITERIA WILL BE MET.  AND FINALLY FOR ACK...WE KEPT THE WINTER
STORM WATCH AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT IN 6 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO PTYPE
ISSUES AND WE ALSO UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING.

1) PRECIP TYPE...

THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT
WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT ENOUGH WARMING FOR A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO
RAIN OVER ACK LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THIS WARMING POSSIBLY
REACHING THE OUTER CAPE FOR A TIME DURING TUE.  ECMWF IS PRETTY
BULLISH ON THIS WARMING AND NAM ALSO SHOWS IT BUT TO A LESSER
EXTENT.

2) HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND

SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY MON EVENING...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW
LIKELY DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS VERY IMPRESSIVE BANDING SIGNATURE DEVELOPS AND LIFTS N
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS OCCURS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF TO
THE SOUTH WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT ENHANCING FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. VERY STRONG OMEGA THROUGH THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE COMBINED WITH -EPV SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR 2-3"/HR SNOWFALL
RATES AND POCKETS OF THUNDER SNOW 06-15Z AS THE BAND LIFTS TO THE N.

MODELS SHOW BANDING SIGNATURE MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR WEST OF I-95
CORRIDOR DURING TUE AND PIVOTING FROM E-W TO NE-SW
CONFIGURATION...WHILE POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF E MA.
FORECASTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BANDING...WHERE IT PIVOTS AND
LOCATION OF THE DRY SLOT TUESDAY IS VERY CHALLENGING AND WILL
DETERMINE WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW SETS UP. THIS WILL DEPEND ON
THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL LOW.  ECMWF PUSHES THIS BAND ALL THE WAY
INTO WESTERN NEW ENG WHILE NAM IS CLOSER TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  WE
THINK IT WILL SET UP A LITTLE WEST OF I-95 ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
COASTAL FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE WE THINK HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUM WILL
BE.

POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 FEET OF SNOW IN THIS ZONE NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...
UP TO 2 FEET FAR W MA AND ALSO SE MA WHERE DRY SLOT MAY CUT BACK ON
SNOW ACCUM A TAD DESPITE HEAVIER QPF HERE. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON TO
FIND THE HEAVIEST SNOW A BIT NW OF MAX QPF AXIS BECAUSE OF WHERE THE
BANDING SETS UP. FOR THE CAPE AND MVY WE ARE LOOKING AT 10-18" WITH
HEAVIEST NEAR THE CANAL.  LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR ACK AND WE
HAVE UP TO 6 INCHES HERE BUT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER.

HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SE MA AND CAPE
COD WHERE THERE IS ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWN TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.  DRIER SNOW IN THE
INTERIOR.

VERY STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AS IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS N OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRES.  NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS 70-80 MPH FOR THE OUTER
CAPE AND ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WHEN
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR.  GUSTS TO 50-60 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS REST
OF SE MA EAST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR...AND 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITY LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN NEW ENG. THIS
IS A SERIOUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND TRAVEL IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED TONIGHT INTO TUE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE
TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
AND BANDING BECOMES FRACTURED...BUT LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE NIGHT GIVEN PROXIMITY OF MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH
SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WHILE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE BLIZZARD...WE WILL
UPDATE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS TIME PERMITS.

SNOW COMES TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY /ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN GFS/
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SCT-BKN040 POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY. W WINDS GUST TO 30 KTS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
START OFF VFR WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
IFR CONDITIONS AND SNOW WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY...LIKELY AFTER 21Z. HOWEVER...THEY COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS
18Z.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIFR IN HEAVY
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST
WITH GUSTS 50-65 KTS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER...
FOCUSING ON THE UPCOMING NOREASTER/BLIZZARD...AND ASSOCIATED STORM
FORCE TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...HAVE
DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 30 FT
   AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY***

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 55 TO 65 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 30 FT OVER EASTERN WATERS. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS WITH STORM WARNING
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND MARINERS
SHOULD RETURN TO PORT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. HAVE UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE
TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY PRONE TO IT.
SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD
PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST
FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR EVEN A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE
STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RMT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 252133
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
433 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A MAJOR
AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND
LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
4 PM UPDATE...BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES. TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S COMBINED WITH THESE WINDS ARE
RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.  HOWEVER...INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE
COAST MAY PUT A STOP TO RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY.  THEREFORE...NOT
DROPPING TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THEY COULD BE IF SKIES REMAINED
CLEAR.  FORECASTING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BEFORE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT.  MOSTLY DRY/QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BUT DEFINITELY A DETERIORATING TREND.
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.  THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST MOVING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND MIDDAY.  HOWEVER...THE NAM/ECMWF ARE THE
PREFERRED SOLUTIONS FOR THE NOREASTER/BLIZZARD.  THESE SOLUTIONS
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SNOW MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  BECAUSE OF THIS...ONLY EXPECT A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY /7 PM MONDAY/.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS SE
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* HISTORIC AND POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING BLIZZARD MON NIGHT INTO TUE
  NIGHT
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL MULTI-MODEL AGREEMENT ON SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN LEADS US
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND POTENTIALLY
CRIPPLING BLIZZARD FOR SNE. POTENT NEG TILT SHORTWAVE DIVING TO SE
US COAST WILL RESULT IN SFC REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND
EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
LOW CLOSES OFF. HIGH PRES WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
PROVIDING A SOURCE OF COLD AIR AND ENHANCING BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG
THE COAST.  THE STORM EVENTUALLY GETS CAPTURED WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT NWD FROM NEAR THE BENCHMARK AND LONG DURATION
STORM.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE 850/700 MB LOWS AND
HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS THE AREA WHICH WILL IMPACT EXACTLY WHERE BEST
BANDING SETS UP...POTENTIAL DRY SLOT EASTERN NEW ENG AS WELL AS
PTYPE FOR CAPE/ISLANDS. WE THINK GFS IS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND A BIT
TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST WITH MID LEVEL LOW AND WE ARE LEANING TOWARD
ECMWF/NAM BLEND WHICH ARE REASONABLY CLOSE.

DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN MID LEVEL LOW TRACK...QPF IS PRETTY SIMILAR
WITH 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS SNE WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES.
PROBABLY LOOKING AT NEAR CLIMO SNOW LIQUID RATIOS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO
10:1 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NO MORE THAN 12-15:1 INTERIOR AS MID
LEVEL TEMPS IN THE SNOW PRODUCTION ZONE ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON BLIZZARD IN EASTERN NEW ENG SO WE ARE UPGRADING
WATCHES TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS. WE ARE ALSO EXPANDING THE BLIZZARD
WARNINGS TO N CT...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MA AND CAPE COD AND MVY.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR WESTERN MA AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT WIND
CRITERIA WILL BE MET.  AND FINALLY FOR ACK...WE KEPT THE WINTER
STORM WATCH AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT IN 6 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO PTYPE
ISSUES AND WE ALSO UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING.

1) PRECIP TYPE...

THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT
WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT ENOUGH WARMING FOR A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO
RAIN OVER ACK LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THIS WARMING POSSIBLY
REACHING THE OUTER CAPE FOR A TIME DURING TUE.  ECMWF IS PRETTY
BULLISH ON THIS WARMING AND NAM ALSO SHOWS IT BUT TO A LESSER
EXTENT.

2) HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND

SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY MON EVENING...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW
LIKELY DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS VERY IMPRESSIVE BANDING SIGNATURE DEVELOPS AND LIFTS N
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS OCCURS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF TO
THE SOUTH WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT ENHANCING FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. VERY STRONG OMEGA THROUGH THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE COMBINED WITH -EPV SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR 2-3"/HR SNOWFALL
RATES AND POCKETS OF THUNDER SNOW 06-15Z AS THE BAND LIFTS TO THE N.

MODELS SHOW BANDING SIGNATURE MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR WEST OF I-95
CORRIDOR DURING TUE AND PIVOTING FROM E-W TO NE-SW
CONFIGURATION...WHILE POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF E MA.
FORECASTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BANDING...WHERE IT PIVOTS AND
LOCATION OF THE DRY SLOT TUESDAY IS VERY CHALLENGING AND WILL
DETERMINE WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW SETS UP. THIS WILL DEPEND ON
THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL LOW.  ECMWF PUSHES THIS BAND ALL THE WAY
INTO WESTERN NEW ENG WHILE NAM IS CLOSER TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  WE
THINK IT WILL SET UP A LITTLE WEST OF I-95 ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
COASTAL FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE WE THINK HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUM WILL
BE.

POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 FEET OF SNOW IN THIS ZONE NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...
UP TO 2 FEET FAR W MA AND ALSO SE MA WHERE DRY SLOT MAY CUT BACK ON
SNOW ACCUM A TAD DESPITE HEAVIER QPF HERE. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON TO
FIND THE HEAVIEST SNOW A BIT NW OF MAX QPF AXIS BECAUSE OF WHERE THE
BANDING SETS UP. FOR THE CAPE AND MVY WE ARE LOOKING AT 10-18" WITH
HEAVIEST NEAR THE CANAL.  LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR ACK AND WE
HAVE UP TO 6 INCHES HERE BUT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER.

HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SE MA AND CAPE
COD WHERE THERE IS ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWN TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.  DRIER SNOW IN THE
INTERIOR.

VERY STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AS IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS N OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRES.  NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS 70-80 MPH FOR THE OUTER
CAPE AND ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WHEN
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR.  GUSTS TO 50-60 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS REST
OF SE MA EAST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR...AND 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITY LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN NEW ENG. THIS
IS A SERIOUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND TRAVEL IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED TONIGHT INTO TUE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE
TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
AND BANDING BECOMES FRACTURED...BUT LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE NIGHT GIVEN PROXIMITY OF MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH
SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WHILE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE BLIZZARD...WE WILL
UPDATE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS TIME PERMITS.

SNOW COMES TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY /ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN GFS/
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SCT-BKN040 POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY. W WINDS GUST TO 30 KTS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
START OFF VFR WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
IFR CONDITIONS AND SNOW WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY...LIKELY AFTER 21Z. HOWEVER...THEY COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS
18Z.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIFR IN HEAVY
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST
WITH GUSTS 50-65 KTS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER...
FOCUSING ON THE UPCOMING NOREASTER/BLIZZARD...AND ASSOCIATED STORM
FORCE TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...HAVE
DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 30 FT
   AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY***

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 55 TO 65 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 30 FT OVER EASTERN WATERS. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS WITH STORM WARNING
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND MARINERS
SHOULD RETURN TO PORT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. HAVE UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE
TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY PRONE TO IT.
SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD
PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST
FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR EVEN A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE
STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RMT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 252133
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
433 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A MAJOR
AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND
LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
4 PM UPDATE...BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES. TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S COMBINED WITH THESE WINDS ARE
RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.  HOWEVER...INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE
COAST MAY PUT A STOP TO RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY.  THEREFORE...NOT
DROPPING TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THEY COULD BE IF SKIES REMAINED
CLEAR.  FORECASTING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BEFORE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT.  MOSTLY DRY/QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BUT DEFINITELY A DETERIORATING TREND.
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.  THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST MOVING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND MIDDAY.  HOWEVER...THE NAM/ECMWF ARE THE
PREFERRED SOLUTIONS FOR THE NOREASTER/BLIZZARD.  THESE SOLUTIONS
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SNOW MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  BECAUSE OF THIS...ONLY EXPECT A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY /7 PM MONDAY/.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS SE
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* HISTORIC AND POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING BLIZZARD MON NIGHT INTO TUE
  NIGHT
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL MULTI-MODEL AGREEMENT ON SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN LEADS US
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND POTENTIALLY
CRIPPLING BLIZZARD FOR SNE. POTENT NEG TILT SHORTWAVE DIVING TO SE
US COAST WILL RESULT IN SFC REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND
EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
LOW CLOSES OFF. HIGH PRES WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
PROVIDING A SOURCE OF COLD AIR AND ENHANCING BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG
THE COAST.  THE STORM EVENTUALLY GETS CAPTURED WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT NWD FROM NEAR THE BENCHMARK AND LONG DURATION
STORM.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE 850/700 MB LOWS AND
HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS THE AREA WHICH WILL IMPACT EXACTLY WHERE BEST
BANDING SETS UP...POTENTIAL DRY SLOT EASTERN NEW ENG AS WELL AS
PTYPE FOR CAPE/ISLANDS. WE THINK GFS IS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND A BIT
TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST WITH MID LEVEL LOW AND WE ARE LEANING TOWARD
ECMWF/NAM BLEND WHICH ARE REASONABLY CLOSE.

DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN MID LEVEL LOW TRACK...QPF IS PRETTY SIMILAR
WITH 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS SNE WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES.
PROBABLY LOOKING AT NEAR CLIMO SNOW LIQUID RATIOS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO
10:1 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NO MORE THAN 12-15:1 INTERIOR AS MID
LEVEL TEMPS IN THE SNOW PRODUCTION ZONE ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON BLIZZARD IN EASTERN NEW ENG SO WE ARE UPGRADING
WATCHES TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS. WE ARE ALSO EXPANDING THE BLIZZARD
WARNINGS TO N CT...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MA AND CAPE COD AND MVY.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR WESTERN MA AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT WIND
CRITERIA WILL BE MET.  AND FINALLY FOR ACK...WE KEPT THE WINTER
STORM WATCH AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT IN 6 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO PTYPE
ISSUES AND WE ALSO UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING.

1) PRECIP TYPE...

THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT
WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT ENOUGH WARMING FOR A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO
RAIN OVER ACK LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THIS WARMING POSSIBLY
REACHING THE OUTER CAPE FOR A TIME DURING TUE.  ECMWF IS PRETTY
BULLISH ON THIS WARMING AND NAM ALSO SHOWS IT BUT TO A LESSER
EXTENT.

2) HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND

SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY MON EVENING...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW
LIKELY DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS VERY IMPRESSIVE BANDING SIGNATURE DEVELOPS AND LIFTS N
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS OCCURS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF TO
THE SOUTH WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT ENHANCING FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. VERY STRONG OMEGA THROUGH THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE COMBINED WITH -EPV SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR 2-3"/HR SNOWFALL
RATES AND POCKETS OF THUNDER SNOW 06-15Z AS THE BAND LIFTS TO THE N.

MODELS SHOW BANDING SIGNATURE MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR WEST OF I-95
CORRIDOR DURING TUE AND PIVOTING FROM E-W TO NE-SW
CONFIGURATION...WHILE POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF E MA.
FORECASTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BANDING...WHERE IT PIVOTS AND
LOCATION OF THE DRY SLOT TUESDAY IS VERY CHALLENGING AND WILL
DETERMINE WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW SETS UP. THIS WILL DEPEND ON
THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL LOW.  ECMWF PUSHES THIS BAND ALL THE WAY
INTO WESTERN NEW ENG WHILE NAM IS CLOSER TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  WE
THINK IT WILL SET UP A LITTLE WEST OF I-95 ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
COASTAL FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE WE THINK HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUM WILL
BE.

POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 FEET OF SNOW IN THIS ZONE NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...
UP TO 2 FEET FAR W MA AND ALSO SE MA WHERE DRY SLOT MAY CUT BACK ON
SNOW ACCUM A TAD DESPITE HEAVIER QPF HERE. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON TO
FIND THE HEAVIEST SNOW A BIT NW OF MAX QPF AXIS BECAUSE OF WHERE THE
BANDING SETS UP. FOR THE CAPE AND MVY WE ARE LOOKING AT 10-18" WITH
HEAVIEST NEAR THE CANAL.  LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR ACK AND WE
HAVE UP TO 6 INCHES HERE BUT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER.

HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SE MA AND CAPE
COD WHERE THERE IS ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWN TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.  DRIER SNOW IN THE
INTERIOR.

VERY STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AS IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS N OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRES.  NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS 70-80 MPH FOR THE OUTER
CAPE AND ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WHEN
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR.  GUSTS TO 50-60 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS REST
OF SE MA EAST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR...AND 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITY LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN NEW ENG. THIS
IS A SERIOUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND TRAVEL IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED TONIGHT INTO TUE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE
TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
AND BANDING BECOMES FRACTURED...BUT LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE NIGHT GIVEN PROXIMITY OF MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH
SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WHILE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE BLIZZARD...WE WILL
UPDATE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS TIME PERMITS.

SNOW COMES TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY /ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN GFS/
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SCT-BKN040 POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY. W WINDS GUST TO 30 KTS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
START OFF VFR WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
IFR CONDITIONS AND SNOW WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY...LIKELY AFTER 21Z. HOWEVER...THEY COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS
18Z.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIFR IN HEAVY
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST
WITH GUSTS 50-65 KTS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER...
FOCUSING ON THE UPCOMING NOREASTER/BLIZZARD...AND ASSOCIATED STORM
FORCE TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...HAVE
DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 30 FT
   AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY***

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 55 TO 65 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 30 FT OVER EASTERN WATERS. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS WITH STORM WARNING
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND MARINERS
SHOULD RETURN TO PORT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. HAVE UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE
TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY PRONE TO IT.
SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD
PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST
FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR EVEN A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE
STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RMT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 252133
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
433 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A MAJOR
AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND
LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
4 PM UPDATE...BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES. TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S COMBINED WITH THESE WINDS ARE
RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.  HOWEVER...INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE
COAST MAY PUT A STOP TO RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY.  THEREFORE...NOT
DROPPING TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THEY COULD BE IF SKIES REMAINED
CLEAR.  FORECASTING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BEFORE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT.  MOSTLY DRY/QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BUT DEFINITELY A DETERIORATING TREND.
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.  THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST MOVING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND MIDDAY.  HOWEVER...THE NAM/ECMWF ARE THE
PREFERRED SOLUTIONS FOR THE NOREASTER/BLIZZARD.  THESE SOLUTIONS
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SNOW MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  BECAUSE OF THIS...ONLY EXPECT A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY /7 PM MONDAY/.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS SE
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* HISTORIC AND POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING BLIZZARD MON NIGHT INTO TUE
  NIGHT
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL MULTI-MODEL AGREEMENT ON SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN LEADS US
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND POTENTIALLY
CRIPPLING BLIZZARD FOR SNE. POTENT NEG TILT SHORTWAVE DIVING TO SE
US COAST WILL RESULT IN SFC REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND
EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
LOW CLOSES OFF. HIGH PRES WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
PROVIDING A SOURCE OF COLD AIR AND ENHANCING BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG
THE COAST.  THE STORM EVENTUALLY GETS CAPTURED WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT NWD FROM NEAR THE BENCHMARK AND LONG DURATION
STORM.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE 850/700 MB LOWS AND
HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS THE AREA WHICH WILL IMPACT EXACTLY WHERE BEST
BANDING SETS UP...POTENTIAL DRY SLOT EASTERN NEW ENG AS WELL AS
PTYPE FOR CAPE/ISLANDS. WE THINK GFS IS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND A BIT
TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST WITH MID LEVEL LOW AND WE ARE LEANING TOWARD
ECMWF/NAM BLEND WHICH ARE REASONABLY CLOSE.

DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN MID LEVEL LOW TRACK...QPF IS PRETTY SIMILAR
WITH 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS SNE WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES.
PROBABLY LOOKING AT NEAR CLIMO SNOW LIQUID RATIOS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO
10:1 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NO MORE THAN 12-15:1 INTERIOR AS MID
LEVEL TEMPS IN THE SNOW PRODUCTION ZONE ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON BLIZZARD IN EASTERN NEW ENG SO WE ARE UPGRADING
WATCHES TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS. WE ARE ALSO EXPANDING THE BLIZZARD
WARNINGS TO N CT...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MA AND CAPE COD AND MVY.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR WESTERN MA AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT WIND
CRITERIA WILL BE MET.  AND FINALLY FOR ACK...WE KEPT THE WINTER
STORM WATCH AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT IN 6 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO PTYPE
ISSUES AND WE ALSO UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING.

1) PRECIP TYPE...

THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT
WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT ENOUGH WARMING FOR A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO
RAIN OVER ACK LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THIS WARMING POSSIBLY
REACHING THE OUTER CAPE FOR A TIME DURING TUE.  ECMWF IS PRETTY
BULLISH ON THIS WARMING AND NAM ALSO SHOWS IT BUT TO A LESSER
EXTENT.

2) HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND

SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY MON EVENING...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW
LIKELY DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS VERY IMPRESSIVE BANDING SIGNATURE DEVELOPS AND LIFTS N
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS OCCURS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF TO
THE SOUTH WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT ENHANCING FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. VERY STRONG OMEGA THROUGH THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE COMBINED WITH -EPV SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR 2-3"/HR SNOWFALL
RATES AND POCKETS OF THUNDER SNOW 06-15Z AS THE BAND LIFTS TO THE N.

MODELS SHOW BANDING SIGNATURE MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR WEST OF I-95
CORRIDOR DURING TUE AND PIVOTING FROM E-W TO NE-SW
CONFIGURATION...WHILE POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF E MA.
FORECASTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BANDING...WHERE IT PIVOTS AND
LOCATION OF THE DRY SLOT TUESDAY IS VERY CHALLENGING AND WILL
DETERMINE WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW SETS UP. THIS WILL DEPEND ON
THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL LOW.  ECMWF PUSHES THIS BAND ALL THE WAY
INTO WESTERN NEW ENG WHILE NAM IS CLOSER TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  WE
THINK IT WILL SET UP A LITTLE WEST OF I-95 ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
COASTAL FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE WE THINK HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUM WILL
BE.

POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 FEET OF SNOW IN THIS ZONE NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...
UP TO 2 FEET FAR W MA AND ALSO SE MA WHERE DRY SLOT MAY CUT BACK ON
SNOW ACCUM A TAD DESPITE HEAVIER QPF HERE. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON TO
FIND THE HEAVIEST SNOW A BIT NW OF MAX QPF AXIS BECAUSE OF WHERE THE
BANDING SETS UP. FOR THE CAPE AND MVY WE ARE LOOKING AT 10-18" WITH
HEAVIEST NEAR THE CANAL.  LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR ACK AND WE
HAVE UP TO 6 INCHES HERE BUT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER.

HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SE MA AND CAPE
COD WHERE THERE IS ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWN TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.  DRIER SNOW IN THE
INTERIOR.

VERY STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AS IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS N OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRES.  NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS 70-80 MPH FOR THE OUTER
CAPE AND ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WHEN
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR.  GUSTS TO 50-60 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS REST
OF SE MA EAST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR...AND 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITY LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN NEW ENG. THIS
IS A SERIOUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND TRAVEL IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED TONIGHT INTO TUE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE
TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
AND BANDING BECOMES FRACTURED...BUT LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE NIGHT GIVEN PROXIMITY OF MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH
SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WHILE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE BLIZZARD...WE WILL
UPDATE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS TIME PERMITS.

SNOW COMES TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY /ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN GFS/
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SCT-BKN040 POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY. W WINDS GUST TO 30 KTS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
START OFF VFR WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
IFR CONDITIONS AND SNOW WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY...LIKELY AFTER 21Z. HOWEVER...THEY COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS
18Z.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIFR IN HEAVY
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST
WITH GUSTS 50-65 KTS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER...
FOCUSING ON THE UPCOMING NOREASTER/BLIZZARD...AND ASSOCIATED STORM
FORCE TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...HAVE
DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 30 FT
   AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY***

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 55 TO 65 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 30 FT OVER EASTERN WATERS. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS WITH STORM WARNING
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND MARINERS
SHOULD RETURN TO PORT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. HAVE UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE
TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY PRONE TO IT.
SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD
PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST
FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR EVEN A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE
STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RMT



000
FXUS61 KGYX 252051
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
350 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY THEN RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSED THE REGION TODAY BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES
OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 BELOW IN THE NORTH
HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD DECREASE KEEPING WIND CHILLS ABOVE ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL VERY BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE 20S.

&&
MID RANGE /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/.../WINTER STORM/...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL ALREADY BE AFFECTING NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION SPREADS SNOW
NORTHWARD. POTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO 983 MB BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH OVERHEAD. THE STORM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT
12 HRS AS THE TROUGH BATTLES WITH DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. THIS
STALLING IS KEY TO THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND ULTIMATELY SNOW THAT WILL
FALL OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CHARACTER OF THE SNOW WILL BE
FLUFFY AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY. WENT WITH
A 15:1 SLR ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE GONE HIGHER.

THE MESOSCALE BANDING IS HIGHLIGHTED BY PETERSSON FRONTOGENESIS...
WHICH SHOWS THE BEST BANDING SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS BEFORE CURVING NE THROUGH SOUTHERN NH NEAR
CHICHESTER... AND THEN ENE TOWARDS FRYEBURG AND WATERVILLE MAINE.
THIS WILL BE CONSISTENT WITH THE COASTAL/WARM FRONT AS IT TRIES TO
WORK ITS WAY INLAND. ITS IN THIS BAND WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS WILL FALL... LIKELY AROUND TWO FEET. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
MAY BE FOUND IN SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE WHERE THE FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING COINCIDES WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.

GEFS AND NAM ANOMALIES FOR 925 AND 850 MB U AND EVEN V WIND
COMPONENTS OF MORE THAN 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL SHOW
THIS STORM WILL PACK VERY STRONG WINDS... LIKELY CAUSING WIND
DAMAGE AS THESE WINDS MIX EASILY TO THE SURFACE IN PRECIPITATION
LOADING. FOR THIS REASON FELT CONFIDENT GOING WITH BLIZZARD
WARNINGS FOR THE COAST AND THOSE COUNTIES ALONG THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE... WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 10-20" WARRANTS WINTER
WEATHER WARNINGS. OVER THE WATERS WE HAVE ISSUED GALES AND STORM
FORCE WARNINGS. SHADOWING ON THE WESTWARD SLOPES OF THE WHITES
SHOULD GIVE SOMEWHAT LOWER TOTALS TO ADJOINING COUNTIES.. AND FOR
THIS REASON HAVE GONE WITH ONLY AN ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN COOS. THE
STORM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS TAPERING
OFF.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL SEE RAPID CLEARING AS THE NOREASTER TRACKS OUT OF
THE AREA. THE HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH
ANOTHER WAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM... AND HAVE LEANED ON A WEAKER NORTHERLY TRACK FOR
THIS UPDATE. THE STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WITH CLEARING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
DECREASE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS BEGINNING MON NIGHT THRU TUE...AS COASTAL LOW PRES
SPREADS SNWFL ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY SNWFL AND WIDESPREAD IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS WIND DOWN TUE EVENING...BUT SN LINGERS INTO WED
MORNING WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY
SEE NE GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS DURING THE DAY TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE FOR
THIS EVENING. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN
THE BAYS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURE DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST.

LONG TERM...STRONG LOW PRES S OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS TO THE OUTER WATERS TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
A GALE WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAYS DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RELATIVELY LOW IN THE ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE HOWEVER
PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A STORM SURGE OF UP TO
2 FEET. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WAVES OF 15 TO 20 FEET OFF SHORE
MAY PRODUCE FLOODING AND SPLASHOVER AT HIGH TIDE. AT PORTLAND HIGH
TIDE IS 10.0 FT AT 420AM TUESDAY... 9.1FT AT 453AM TUESDAY AND
9.8FT AT 523AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ002>009-011-012-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NHZ010-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

CURTIS...EVERYTHING BUT THE STORM
HANES...THE STORM




000
FXUS61 KGYX 252051
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
350 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY THEN RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSED THE REGION TODAY BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES
OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 BELOW IN THE NORTH
HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD DECREASE KEEPING WIND CHILLS ABOVE ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL VERY BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE 20S.

&&
MID RANGE /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/.../WINTER STORM/...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL ALREADY BE AFFECTING NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION SPREADS SNOW
NORTHWARD. POTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO 983 MB BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH OVERHEAD. THE STORM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT
12 HRS AS THE TROUGH BATTLES WITH DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. THIS
STALLING IS KEY TO THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND ULTIMATELY SNOW THAT WILL
FALL OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CHARACTER OF THE SNOW WILL BE
FLUFFY AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY. WENT WITH
A 15:1 SLR ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE GONE HIGHER.

THE MESOSCALE BANDING IS HIGHLIGHTED BY PETERSSON FRONTOGENESIS...
WHICH SHOWS THE BEST BANDING SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS BEFORE CURVING NE THROUGH SOUTHERN NH NEAR
CHICHESTER... AND THEN ENE TOWARDS FRYEBURG AND WATERVILLE MAINE.
THIS WILL BE CONSISTENT WITH THE COASTAL/WARM FRONT AS IT TRIES TO
WORK ITS WAY INLAND. ITS IN THIS BAND WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS WILL FALL... LIKELY AROUND TWO FEET. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
MAY BE FOUND IN SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE WHERE THE FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING COINCIDES WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.

GEFS AND NAM ANOMALIES FOR 925 AND 850 MB U AND EVEN V WIND
COMPONENTS OF MORE THAN 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL SHOW
THIS STORM WILL PACK VERY STRONG WINDS... LIKELY CAUSING WIND
DAMAGE AS THESE WINDS MIX EASILY TO THE SURFACE IN PRECIPITATION
LOADING. FOR THIS REASON FELT CONFIDENT GOING WITH BLIZZARD
WARNINGS FOR THE COAST AND THOSE COUNTIES ALONG THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE... WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 10-20" WARRANTS WINTER
WEATHER WARNINGS. OVER THE WATERS WE HAVE ISSUED GALES AND STORM
FORCE WARNINGS. SHADOWING ON THE WESTWARD SLOPES OF THE WHITES
SHOULD GIVE SOMEWHAT LOWER TOTALS TO ADJOINING COUNTIES.. AND FOR
THIS REASON HAVE GONE WITH ONLY AN ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN COOS. THE
STORM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS TAPERING
OFF.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL SEE RAPID CLEARING AS THE NOREASTER TRACKS OUT OF
THE AREA. THE HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH
ANOTHER WAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM... AND HAVE LEANED ON A WEAKER NORTHERLY TRACK FOR
THIS UPDATE. THE STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WITH CLEARING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
DECREASE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS BEGINNING MON NIGHT THRU TUE...AS COASTAL LOW PRES
SPREADS SNWFL ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY SNWFL AND WIDESPREAD IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS WIND DOWN TUE EVENING...BUT SN LINGERS INTO WED
MORNING WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY
SEE NE GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS DURING THE DAY TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE FOR
THIS EVENING. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN
THE BAYS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURE DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST.

LONG TERM...STRONG LOW PRES S OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS TO THE OUTER WATERS TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
A GALE WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAYS DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RELATIVELY LOW IN THE ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE HOWEVER
PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A STORM SURGE OF UP TO
2 FEET. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WAVES OF 15 TO 20 FEET OFF SHORE
MAY PRODUCE FLOODING AND SPLASHOVER AT HIGH TIDE. AT PORTLAND HIGH
TIDE IS 10.0 FT AT 420AM TUESDAY... 9.1FT AT 453AM TUESDAY AND
9.8FT AT 523AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ002>009-011-012-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NHZ010-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

CURTIS...EVERYTHING BUT THE STORM
HANES...THE STORM




000
FXUS61 KGYX 252051
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
350 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY THEN RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSED THE REGION TODAY BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES
OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 BELOW IN THE NORTH
HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD DECREASE KEEPING WIND CHILLS ABOVE ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL VERY BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE 20S.

&&
MID RANGE /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/.../WINTER STORM/...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL ALREADY BE AFFECTING NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION SPREADS SNOW
NORTHWARD. POTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO 983 MB BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH OVERHEAD. THE STORM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT
12 HRS AS THE TROUGH BATTLES WITH DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. THIS
STALLING IS KEY TO THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND ULTIMATELY SNOW THAT WILL
FALL OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CHARACTER OF THE SNOW WILL BE
FLUFFY AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY. WENT WITH
A 15:1 SLR ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE GONE HIGHER.

THE MESOSCALE BANDING IS HIGHLIGHTED BY PETERSSON FRONTOGENESIS...
WHICH SHOWS THE BEST BANDING SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS BEFORE CURVING NE THROUGH SOUTHERN NH NEAR
CHICHESTER... AND THEN ENE TOWARDS FRYEBURG AND WATERVILLE MAINE.
THIS WILL BE CONSISTENT WITH THE COASTAL/WARM FRONT AS IT TRIES TO
WORK ITS WAY INLAND. ITS IN THIS BAND WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS WILL FALL... LIKELY AROUND TWO FEET. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
MAY BE FOUND IN SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE WHERE THE FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING COINCIDES WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.

GEFS AND NAM ANOMALIES FOR 925 AND 850 MB U AND EVEN V WIND
COMPONENTS OF MORE THAN 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL SHOW
THIS STORM WILL PACK VERY STRONG WINDS... LIKELY CAUSING WIND
DAMAGE AS THESE WINDS MIX EASILY TO THE SURFACE IN PRECIPITATION
LOADING. FOR THIS REASON FELT CONFIDENT GOING WITH BLIZZARD
WARNINGS FOR THE COAST AND THOSE COUNTIES ALONG THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE... WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 10-20" WARRANTS WINTER
WEATHER WARNINGS. OVER THE WATERS WE HAVE ISSUED GALES AND STORM
FORCE WARNINGS. SHADOWING ON THE WESTWARD SLOPES OF THE WHITES
SHOULD GIVE SOMEWHAT LOWER TOTALS TO ADJOINING COUNTIES.. AND FOR
THIS REASON HAVE GONE WITH ONLY AN ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN COOS. THE
STORM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS TAPERING
OFF.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL SEE RAPID CLEARING AS THE NOREASTER TRACKS OUT OF
THE AREA. THE HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH
ANOTHER WAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM... AND HAVE LEANED ON A WEAKER NORTHERLY TRACK FOR
THIS UPDATE. THE STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WITH CLEARING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
DECREASE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS BEGINNING MON NIGHT THRU TUE...AS COASTAL LOW PRES
SPREADS SNWFL ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY SNWFL AND WIDESPREAD IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS WIND DOWN TUE EVENING...BUT SN LINGERS INTO WED
MORNING WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY
SEE NE GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS DURING THE DAY TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE FOR
THIS EVENING. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN
THE BAYS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURE DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST.

LONG TERM...STRONG LOW PRES S OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS TO THE OUTER WATERS TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
A GALE WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAYS DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RELATIVELY LOW IN THE ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE HOWEVER
PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A STORM SURGE OF UP TO
2 FEET. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WAVES OF 15 TO 20 FEET OFF SHORE
MAY PRODUCE FLOODING AND SPLASHOVER AT HIGH TIDE. AT PORTLAND HIGH
TIDE IS 10.0 FT AT 420AM TUESDAY... 9.1FT AT 453AM TUESDAY AND
9.8FT AT 523AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ002>009-011-012-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NHZ010-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

CURTIS...EVERYTHING BUT THE STORM
HANES...THE STORM




000
FXUS61 KGYX 252051
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
350 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY THEN RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSED THE REGION TODAY BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES
OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 BELOW IN THE NORTH
HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD DECREASE KEEPING WIND CHILLS ABOVE ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL VERY BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE 20S.

&&
MID RANGE /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/.../WINTER STORM/...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL ALREADY BE AFFECTING NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION SPREADS SNOW
NORTHWARD. POTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO 983 MB BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH OVERHEAD. THE STORM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT
12 HRS AS THE TROUGH BATTLES WITH DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. THIS
STALLING IS KEY TO THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND ULTIMATELY SNOW THAT WILL
FALL OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CHARACTER OF THE SNOW WILL BE
FLUFFY AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY. WENT WITH
A 15:1 SLR ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE GONE HIGHER.

THE MESOSCALE BANDING IS HIGHLIGHTED BY PETERSSON FRONTOGENESIS...
WHICH SHOWS THE BEST BANDING SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS BEFORE CURVING NE THROUGH SOUTHERN NH NEAR
CHICHESTER... AND THEN ENE TOWARDS FRYEBURG AND WATERVILLE MAINE.
THIS WILL BE CONSISTENT WITH THE COASTAL/WARM FRONT AS IT TRIES TO
WORK ITS WAY INLAND. ITS IN THIS BAND WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS WILL FALL... LIKELY AROUND TWO FEET. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
MAY BE FOUND IN SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE WHERE THE FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING COINCIDES WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.

GEFS AND NAM ANOMALIES FOR 925 AND 850 MB U AND EVEN V WIND
COMPONENTS OF MORE THAN 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL SHOW
THIS STORM WILL PACK VERY STRONG WINDS... LIKELY CAUSING WIND
DAMAGE AS THESE WINDS MIX EASILY TO THE SURFACE IN PRECIPITATION
LOADING. FOR THIS REASON FELT CONFIDENT GOING WITH BLIZZARD
WARNINGS FOR THE COAST AND THOSE COUNTIES ALONG THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE... WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 10-20" WARRANTS WINTER
WEATHER WARNINGS. OVER THE WATERS WE HAVE ISSUED GALES AND STORM
FORCE WARNINGS. SHADOWING ON THE WESTWARD SLOPES OF THE WHITES
SHOULD GIVE SOMEWHAT LOWER TOTALS TO ADJOINING COUNTIES.. AND FOR
THIS REASON HAVE GONE WITH ONLY AN ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN COOS. THE
STORM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS TAPERING
OFF.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL SEE RAPID CLEARING AS THE NOREASTER TRACKS OUT OF
THE AREA. THE HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH
ANOTHER WAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM... AND HAVE LEANED ON A WEAKER NORTHERLY TRACK FOR
THIS UPDATE. THE STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WITH CLEARING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
DECREASE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS BEGINNING MON NIGHT THRU TUE...AS COASTAL LOW PRES
SPREADS SNWFL ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY SNWFL AND WIDESPREAD IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS WIND DOWN TUE EVENING...BUT SN LINGERS INTO WED
MORNING WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY
SEE NE GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS DURING THE DAY TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE FOR
THIS EVENING. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN
THE BAYS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURE DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST.

LONG TERM...STRONG LOW PRES S OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS TO THE OUTER WATERS TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
A GALE WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAYS DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RELATIVELY LOW IN THE ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE HOWEVER
PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A STORM SURGE OF UP TO
2 FEET. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WAVES OF 15 TO 20 FEET OFF SHORE
MAY PRODUCE FLOODING AND SPLASHOVER AT HIGH TIDE. AT PORTLAND HIGH
TIDE IS 10.0 FT AT 420AM TUESDAY... 9.1FT AT 453AM TUESDAY AND
9.8FT AT 523AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ002>009-011-012-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NHZ010-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

CURTIS...EVERYTHING BUT THE STORM
HANES...THE STORM




000
FXUS61 KGYX 252050
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
350 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY THEN RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSED THE REGION TODAY BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES
OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 BELOW IN THE NORTH
HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD DECREASE KEEPING WIND CHILLS ABOVE ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL VERY BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE 20S.

&&
MID RANGE /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/.../WINTER STORM/...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL ALREADY BE AFFECTING NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION SPREADS SNOW
NORTHWARD. POTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO 983 MB BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH OVERHEAD. THE STORM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT
12 HRS AS THE TROUGH BATTLES WITH DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. THIS
STALLING IS KEY TO THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND ULTIMATELY SNOW THAT WILL
FALL OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CHARACTER OF THE SNOW WILL BE
FLUFFY AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY. WENT WITH
A 15:1 SLR ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE GONE HIGHER.

THE MESOSCALE BANDING IS HIGHLIGHTED BY PETERSSON FRONTOGENESIS...
WHICH SHOWS THE BEST BANDING SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS BEFORE CURVING NE THROUGH SOUTHERN NH NEAR
CHICHESTER... AND THEN ENE TOWARDS FRYEBURG AND WATERVILLE MAINE.
THIS WILL BE CONSISTENT WITH THE COASTAL/WARM FRONT AS IT TRIES TO
WORK ITS WAY INLAND. ITS IN THIS BAND WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS WILL FALL... LIKELY AROUND TWO FEET. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
MAY BE FOUND IN SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE WHERE THE FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING COINCIDES WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.

GEFS AND NAM ANOMALIES FOR 925 AND 850 MB U AND EVEN V WIND
COMPONENTS OF MORE THAN 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL SHOW
THIS STORM WILL PACK VERY STRONG WINDS... LIKELY CAUSING WIND
DAMAGE AS THESE WINDS MIX EASILY TO THE SURFACE IN PRECIPITATION
LOADING. FOR THIS REASON FELT CONFIDENT GOING WITH BLIZZARD
WARNINGS FOR THE COAST AND THOSE COUNTIES ALONG THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE... WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 10-20" WARRANTS WINTER
WEATHER WARNINGS. OVER THE WATERS WE HAVE ISSUED GALES AND STORM
FORCE WARNINGS. SHADOWING ON THE WESTWARD SLOPES OF THE WHITES
SHOULD GIVE SOMEWHAT LOWER TOTALS TO ADJOINING COUNTIES.. AND FOR
THIS REASON HAVE GONE WITH ONLY AN ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN COOS. THE
STORM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS TAPERING
OFF.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL SEE RAPID CLEARING AS THE NOREASTER TRACKS OUT OF
THE AREA. THE HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH
ANOTHER WAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM... AND HAVE LEANED ON A WEAKER NORTHERLY TRACK FOR
THIS UPDATE. THE STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WITH CLEARING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
DECREASE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS BEGINNING MON NIGHT THRU TUE...AS COASTAL LOW PRES
SPREADS SNWFL ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY SNWFL AND WIDESPREAD IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS WIND DOWN TUE EVENING...BUT SN LINGERS INTO WED
MORNING WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY
SEE NE GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS DURING THE DAY TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE FOR
THIS EVENING. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN
THE BAYS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURE DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST.

LONG TERM...STRONG LOW PRES S OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS TO THE OUTER WATERS TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
A GALE WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAYS DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RELATIVELY LOW IN THE ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE HOWEVER
PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A STORM SURGE OF UP TO
2 FEET. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WAVES OF 15 TO 20 FEET OFF SHORE
MAY PRODUCE FLOODING AND SPLASHOVER AT HIGH TIDE. AT PORTLAND HIGH
TIDE IS 10.0 FT AT 420AM TUESDAY... 9.1FT AT 453AM TUESDAY AND
9.8FT AT 523AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ002>009-011-012-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NHZ010-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANES
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CURTIS/HANES
AVIATION...CURTIS/HANES
MARINE...CURTIS/HANES
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CURTIS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 252050
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
350 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY THEN RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSED THE REGION TODAY BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES
OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 BELOW IN THE NORTH
HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD DECREASE KEEPING WIND CHILLS ABOVE ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL VERY BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE 20S.

&&
MID RANGE /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/.../WINTER STORM/...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL ALREADY BE AFFECTING NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION SPREADS SNOW
NORTHWARD. POTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO 983 MB BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH OVERHEAD. THE STORM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT
12 HRS AS THE TROUGH BATTLES WITH DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. THIS
STALLING IS KEY TO THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND ULTIMATELY SNOW THAT WILL
FALL OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CHARACTER OF THE SNOW WILL BE
FLUFFY AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY. WENT WITH
A 15:1 SLR ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE GONE HIGHER.

THE MESOSCALE BANDING IS HIGHLIGHTED BY PETERSSON FRONTOGENESIS...
WHICH SHOWS THE BEST BANDING SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS BEFORE CURVING NE THROUGH SOUTHERN NH NEAR
CHICHESTER... AND THEN ENE TOWARDS FRYEBURG AND WATERVILLE MAINE.
THIS WILL BE CONSISTENT WITH THE COASTAL/WARM FRONT AS IT TRIES TO
WORK ITS WAY INLAND. ITS IN THIS BAND WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS WILL FALL... LIKELY AROUND TWO FEET. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
MAY BE FOUND IN SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE WHERE THE FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING COINCIDES WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.

GEFS AND NAM ANOMALIES FOR 925 AND 850 MB U AND EVEN V WIND
COMPONENTS OF MORE THAN 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL SHOW
THIS STORM WILL PACK VERY STRONG WINDS... LIKELY CAUSING WIND
DAMAGE AS THESE WINDS MIX EASILY TO THE SURFACE IN PRECIPITATION
LOADING. FOR THIS REASON FELT CONFIDENT GOING WITH BLIZZARD
WARNINGS FOR THE COAST AND THOSE COUNTIES ALONG THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE... WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 10-20" WARRANTS WINTER
WEATHER WARNINGS. OVER THE WATERS WE HAVE ISSUED GALES AND STORM
FORCE WARNINGS. SHADOWING ON THE WESTWARD SLOPES OF THE WHITES
SHOULD GIVE SOMEWHAT LOWER TOTALS TO ADJOINING COUNTIES.. AND FOR
THIS REASON HAVE GONE WITH ONLY AN ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN COOS. THE
STORM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS TAPERING
OFF.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL SEE RAPID CLEARING AS THE NOREASTER TRACKS OUT OF
THE AREA. THE HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH
ANOTHER WAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM... AND HAVE LEANED ON A WEAKER NORTHERLY TRACK FOR
THIS UPDATE. THE STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WITH CLEARING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
DECREASE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS BEGINNING MON NIGHT THRU TUE...AS COASTAL LOW PRES
SPREADS SNWFL ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY SNWFL AND WIDESPREAD IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS WIND DOWN TUE EVENING...BUT SN LINGERS INTO WED
MORNING WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY
SEE NE GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS DURING THE DAY TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE FOR
THIS EVENING. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN
THE BAYS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURE DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST.

LONG TERM...STRONG LOW PRES S OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS TO THE OUTER WATERS TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
A GALE WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAYS DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RELATIVELY LOW IN THE ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE HOWEVER
PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A STORM SURGE OF UP TO
2 FEET. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WAVES OF 15 TO 20 FEET OFF SHORE
MAY PRODUCE FLOODING AND SPLASHOVER AT HIGH TIDE. AT PORTLAND HIGH
TIDE IS 10.0 FT AT 420AM TUESDAY... 9.1FT AT 453AM TUESDAY AND
9.8FT AT 523AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ002>009-011-012-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NHZ010-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANES
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CURTIS/HANES
AVIATION...CURTIS/HANES
MARINE...CURTIS/HANES
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CURTIS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 252050
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
350 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY THEN RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSED THE REGION TODAY BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES
OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 BELOW IN THE NORTH
HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD DECREASE KEEPING WIND CHILLS ABOVE ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL VERY BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE 20S.

&&
MID RANGE /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/.../WINTER STORM/...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL ALREADY BE AFFECTING NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION SPREADS SNOW
NORTHWARD. POTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO 983 MB BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH OVERHEAD. THE STORM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT
12 HRS AS THE TROUGH BATTLES WITH DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. THIS
STALLING IS KEY TO THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND ULTIMATELY SNOW THAT WILL
FALL OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CHARACTER OF THE SNOW WILL BE
FLUFFY AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY. WENT WITH
A 15:1 SLR ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE GONE HIGHER.

THE MESOSCALE BANDING IS HIGHLIGHTED BY PETERSSON FRONTOGENESIS...
WHICH SHOWS THE BEST BANDING SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS BEFORE CURVING NE THROUGH SOUTHERN NH NEAR
CHICHESTER... AND THEN ENE TOWARDS FRYEBURG AND WATERVILLE MAINE.
THIS WILL BE CONSISTENT WITH THE COASTAL/WARM FRONT AS IT TRIES TO
WORK ITS WAY INLAND. ITS IN THIS BAND WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS WILL FALL... LIKELY AROUND TWO FEET. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
MAY BE FOUND IN SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE WHERE THE FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING COINCIDES WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.

GEFS AND NAM ANOMALIES FOR 925 AND 850 MB U AND EVEN V WIND
COMPONENTS OF MORE THAN 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL SHOW
THIS STORM WILL PACK VERY STRONG WINDS... LIKELY CAUSING WIND
DAMAGE AS THESE WINDS MIX EASILY TO THE SURFACE IN PRECIPITATION
LOADING. FOR THIS REASON FELT CONFIDENT GOING WITH BLIZZARD
WARNINGS FOR THE COAST AND THOSE COUNTIES ALONG THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE... WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 10-20" WARRANTS WINTER
WEATHER WARNINGS. OVER THE WATERS WE HAVE ISSUED GALES AND STORM
FORCE WARNINGS. SHADOWING ON THE WESTWARD SLOPES OF THE WHITES
SHOULD GIVE SOMEWHAT LOWER TOTALS TO ADJOINING COUNTIES.. AND FOR
THIS REASON HAVE GONE WITH ONLY AN ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN COOS. THE
STORM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS TAPERING
OFF.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL SEE RAPID CLEARING AS THE NOREASTER TRACKS OUT OF
THE AREA. THE HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH
ANOTHER WAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM... AND HAVE LEANED ON A WEAKER NORTHERLY TRACK FOR
THIS UPDATE. THE STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WITH CLEARING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
DECREASE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS BEGINNING MON NIGHT THRU TUE...AS COASTAL LOW PRES
SPREADS SNWFL ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY SNWFL AND WIDESPREAD IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS WIND DOWN TUE EVENING...BUT SN LINGERS INTO WED
MORNING WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY
SEE NE GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS DURING THE DAY TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE FOR
THIS EVENING. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN
THE BAYS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURE DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST.

LONG TERM...STRONG LOW PRES S OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS TO THE OUTER WATERS TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
A GALE WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAYS DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RELATIVELY LOW IN THE ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE HOWEVER
PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A STORM SURGE OF UP TO
2 FEET. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WAVES OF 15 TO 20 FEET OFF SHORE
MAY PRODUCE FLOODING AND SPLASHOVER AT HIGH TIDE. AT PORTLAND HIGH
TIDE IS 10.0 FT AT 420AM TUESDAY... 9.1FT AT 453AM TUESDAY AND
9.8FT AT 523AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ002>009-011-012-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NHZ010-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANES
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CURTIS/HANES
AVIATION...CURTIS/HANES
MARINE...CURTIS/HANES
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CURTIS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 252050
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
350 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY THEN RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSED THE REGION TODAY BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES
OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 BELOW IN THE NORTH
HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD DECREASE KEEPING WIND CHILLS ABOVE ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL VERY BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE 20S.

&&
MID RANGE /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/.../WINTER STORM/...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL ALREADY BE AFFECTING NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION SPREADS SNOW
NORTHWARD. POTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO 983 MB BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH OVERHEAD. THE STORM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT
12 HRS AS THE TROUGH BATTLES WITH DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. THIS
STALLING IS KEY TO THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND ULTIMATELY SNOW THAT WILL
FALL OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CHARACTER OF THE SNOW WILL BE
FLUFFY AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY. WENT WITH
A 15:1 SLR ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE GONE HIGHER.

THE MESOSCALE BANDING IS HIGHLIGHTED BY PETERSSON FRONTOGENESIS...
WHICH SHOWS THE BEST BANDING SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS BEFORE CURVING NE THROUGH SOUTHERN NH NEAR
CHICHESTER... AND THEN ENE TOWARDS FRYEBURG AND WATERVILLE MAINE.
THIS WILL BE CONSISTENT WITH THE COASTAL/WARM FRONT AS IT TRIES TO
WORK ITS WAY INLAND. ITS IN THIS BAND WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS WILL FALL... LIKELY AROUND TWO FEET. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
MAY BE FOUND IN SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE WHERE THE FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING COINCIDES WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.

GEFS AND NAM ANOMALIES FOR 925 AND 850 MB U AND EVEN V WIND
COMPONENTS OF MORE THAN 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL SHOW
THIS STORM WILL PACK VERY STRONG WINDS... LIKELY CAUSING WIND
DAMAGE AS THESE WINDS MIX EASILY TO THE SURFACE IN PRECIPITATION
LOADING. FOR THIS REASON FELT CONFIDENT GOING WITH BLIZZARD
WARNINGS FOR THE COAST AND THOSE COUNTIES ALONG THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE... WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 10-20" WARRANTS WINTER
WEATHER WARNINGS. OVER THE WATERS WE HAVE ISSUED GALES AND STORM
FORCE WARNINGS. SHADOWING ON THE WESTWARD SLOPES OF THE WHITES
SHOULD GIVE SOMEWHAT LOWER TOTALS TO ADJOINING COUNTIES.. AND FOR
THIS REASON HAVE GONE WITH ONLY AN ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN COOS. THE
STORM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS TAPERING
OFF.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL SEE RAPID CLEARING AS THE NOREASTER TRACKS OUT OF
THE AREA. THE HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH
ANOTHER WAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM... AND HAVE LEANED ON A WEAKER NORTHERLY TRACK FOR
THIS UPDATE. THE STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WITH CLEARING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
DECREASE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS BEGINNING MON NIGHT THRU TUE...AS COASTAL LOW PRES
SPREADS SNWFL ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY SNWFL AND WIDESPREAD IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS WIND DOWN TUE EVENING...BUT SN LINGERS INTO WED
MORNING WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY
SEE NE GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS DURING THE DAY TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE FOR
THIS EVENING. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN
THE BAYS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURE DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST.

LONG TERM...STRONG LOW PRES S OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS TO THE OUTER WATERS TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
A GALE WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAYS DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RELATIVELY LOW IN THE ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE HOWEVER
PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A STORM SURGE OF UP TO
2 FEET. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WAVES OF 15 TO 20 FEET OFF SHORE
MAY PRODUCE FLOODING AND SPLASHOVER AT HIGH TIDE. AT PORTLAND HIGH
TIDE IS 10.0 FT AT 420AM TUESDAY... 9.1FT AT 453AM TUESDAY AND
9.8FT AT 523AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ002>009-011-012-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NHZ010-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANES
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CURTIS/HANES
AVIATION...CURTIS/HANES
MARINE...CURTIS/HANES
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CURTIS




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251750
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1250 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A MAJOR
AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND
LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S COMBINED WITH THESE WINDS ARE RESULTING IN
WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.  HOWEVER...INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE
COAST MAY PUT A STOP TO RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY.  THEREFORE...NOT
DROPPING TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THEY COULD BE IF SKIES REMAINED
CLEAR.  FORECASTING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BEFORE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT.  MOSTLY DRY/QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BUT DEFINITELY A DETERIORATING TREND.
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.  THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST MOVING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND MIDDAY.  HOWEVER...THE NAM/ECMWF ARE THE
PREFERRED SOLUTIONS FOR THE NOREASTER/BLIZZARD.  THESE SOLUTIONS
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SNOW MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  BECAUSE OF THIS...ONLY EXPECT A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY /7 PM MONDAY/.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS SE
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* MAJOR TO POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT
* BLIZZARD WATCH EASTERN MA/RI
* 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS - LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS - GUSTS 60 TO 70 MPH
* SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST

DETAILS...

THIS IS PRETTY MUCH A TEXT BOOK CASE FOR A MAJOR WINTER
STORM/BLIZZARD IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST CLOSES OFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AS LOW PRESSURE BOMBS OUT
AND TRACKS UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW MOVING/LONG DURATION STORM.  IN
ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF
COLD AIR FOR THE STORM TO WORK WITH SO PTYPE WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE A
CONCERN FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WE ARE NOW QUITE CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM
AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME HISTORIC FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
WILL BREAK DOWN THE VARIOUS HAZARDS IN THE NEXT VIEW PARAGRAPHS.

1) HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND AND PTYPE

THE MID LEVEL LOW/S ARE CLOSING OFF JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  THAT WILL PROBABLY PUT US NEAR
GROUND ZERO FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW.  THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.  OF
COURSE THERE MAY BE AREAS THAT EXCEED 2 FEET WHERE LOCALIZED BANDING
SETS UP...BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO WORRY ABOUT THAT.  VERY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH 1035 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND BOMBING
SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG TO DAMAGING NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.  GUSTS BETWEEN 60 TO 70
MPH EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS!

WILL ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR MUCH OF EASTERN MA/RI FOR 1 TO 2
FEET OF SNOW AND 40 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  THIS LOOKS TO BE A
SERIOUS WINTER STORM AND TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY.  CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALSO EXPECTED.

ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR 12 TO 24 INCHES OF SNOW.  ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY HAVE TO
UPGRADE SOME OF THAT REGION TO A BLIZZARD WATCH/WARNING...BUT WAS
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WOULD MIX DOWN ACROSS THAT REGION AND ITS
STILL A LATE 4TH AND 5TH PERIOD EVENT.  WE ARE ALSO LEANING TOWARDS
THE WESTERN ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME LED THE CONSISTENT
ECMW