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000
FXUS61 KGYX 260509
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
109 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunshine and warmer weather will continue this evening ahead of a
cold front. The front will bring clouds and a few showers and
thunderstorms to the area this into early this evening. A ridge
of high pressure will build over the area tonight...then hold
over the region on Thursday as a warm front approaches from the
west. The warm front will stall over the region Thursday night and
Friday and will finally push east of the region on Saturday. A
cold front will cross the region Saturday night then stall just to
our south on Sunday. The front will return north as a warm front
on Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

109 AM...minor ESTF update to reflect current satellite trends
and current mesonet in near term grids.

PREV DISC...
1140 PM Update...
Adjusted temperatures for this update with portions of the area
still quite warm...in the 60s and 70s...but most of the area
in the 50s. Otherwise dropped PoPs as showers have moved offshore
and meso models are not indicated anymore precipitation overnight.


750 PM Update...
The forecast has been adjusted to account for less coverage of
showers and to take out mention of thunderstorms. We have not had
any lightning strikes over the past couple of hours and the
convection is on the decline as daytime heating is lost. This
should be it for precipitation except for the odd sprinkle of two
over the highest peaks.


425 PM Update...
Showers are now moving south along both the sea breeze and the
pre-frontal trough. Have updated to expand PoPs for southern
sections. Stronger cells are located over eastern Maine where
lightning activity has increased. Will keep thunder in our
forecast for the time being. Also adjusted temperatures... dew
point temperatures... and winds for this update.


Previous discussion... Showers and thunderstorms will continue
into the evening hours over northern areas. This is the area with
the most instability and best dynamics for the next several hours.
Modest CAPE, steep low/mid level lapse rates and the approaching
trough and surface cold front will trigger the convection. This
instability will be offset by lowering dew points currently
occurring over northwestern sections as the wind shifts to the
west.

Otherwise, expect patchy valley fog to develop overnight. It will
be mild with temperatures mainly in the 50s for overnight lows,
however southernmost NH may hold in the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
After patchy morning fog, expect mainly sunny skies on Thursday.
Some high and mid level moisture may spill over the ridge late in
the day as a front south of Maine and New Hampshire remains in
close proximity.

With the sunshine and H8 temperatures around +12C, expect
temperatures to climb into the 80s once again. There will be an
afternoon sea breeze, but even coastal residents will see
temperatures make it into the 70s.

The chance for showers increases Thursday night as the front
begins to track back to the north as a warm front. A very weak
upper level disturbance will assist in triggering the
precipitation. Patchy fog is likely once again in the valley
locations and areas that receive local rainfall.

The best chance for thunder will be over southwestern portions of
the forecast area lake at night. Will keep a chance of
thunderstorms in the forecast for the late night period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper ridge axis will continue over New England through the
weekend and into Monday. This ridge will be what we call a "dirty
ridge" as several minor short waves combined with ample moisture
move through the ridge before getting dampened out and setting
off scattered convection at times. Temperatures will be mild and
accepted the blended model guidance. With this scenario timing of
most convection should be in the afternoons and evenings. used the
superblend for pops.

By Tuesday and Wednesday models show a drier cooler canadian air
mass trying to build south across the area. Some instability
showers still can`t be ruled out for now with a cyclonic flow and
cooler temps aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...Sct MVFR across the mtns this PM and evening with
brief lcl ifr psb in -shra/tsra north. Areas of mvfr and lcl ifr
dvlpg btw 08-12z Thu in some valley stratus and fog...bcmg vfr
throughout aft 13z Thu.

Long Term...generally vfr except mvfr in any scattered showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...No flags expected.

Long Term...No flags.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm temperatures this evening but with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Good relative humidity recovery follows for
tonight. Thursday will be one of the only dry days of the week.
Afternoon relative humidity values on Thursday may hover near
30%...but winds will be light. We are forecasting all areas to
receive rainfall this week albeit light.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
ES



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000
FXUS61 KBOX 260259
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1059 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the mid Atlantic coast will bring very warm
weather to most of the region through Saturday, along with
increasing humidity this weekend. It will be cooler at times along
the immediate coast. A backdoor cold front will bring cooler
weather to Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts Sunday with warm
weather continuing elsewhere. Warmer than normal temperatures
overspread the remainder of the area by early next week. A few
showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into Friday,
and again this weekend but the vast majority of the time will be
dry.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

1030 PM Update...

Band of showers that moved out of the Berkshires late this
afternoon associated with weak short wave moving across the region
had weakened by sunset as they crossed central MA and N central
CT. Some leftover mid and high clouds are also tending to
dissipate as they cross N CT/RI. Otherwise, mainly clear skies and
mild temps at 02Z across the region.

Weak surface high pressure ridge and associated mid level ridging
cross overnight. However, noting some high thin clouds working E
across western NY state on latest IR satellite. Some may filter
into western areas toward sunrise out ahead of next system in the
fast W-NW flow aloft. Also noting weak, dry cold front working
slowly S across S VT/NH with weak surface low off the Maine coast.
Little if any moisture with this system, so not expecting precip
overnight across northern Mass.

General light W-SW wind flow in place across the region along with
patchy clouds. Not expecting temps to fall too much overnight with
the milder wind in place.

Have updated near term forecast to bring conditions current. Temps
were a few degrees milder that previous forecast through 00Z so
adjusted those, but looked like the overnight temps were in good
shape so kept those.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday...High pressure moves offshore slowly while the mid level
ridge centers itself over southern New England.  With a much weaker
gradient over the region, sea breezes along both coasts are a slam
dunk.  Therefore, temperatures will be cooler at the coasts but
still in the mid to upper 80s for the rest of the area under mostly
sunny skies.

Thursday night...Mid level ridge sinks south a bit but overall
conditions remain the same as previous couple of days.  Winds will
go calm overnight allowing temperatures to drop back into the upper
50s to lower 60s for most places.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
350 pm update...

Highlights...

* Temperatures warmer than normal much of the time

* Other than isolated showers/thunderstorms many hours of dry
  weather this period

Subtropical ridge builds northwestward from western Atlantic into
the northeast late this week into the weekend and lingers into at
least early next week. This will result in temperatures warmer
than normal much of the time along with mainly dry weather. Both
the 00z GEFS and 00z EPS offer 850 temp anomalies of +1 to +2
standard deviations above normal over southern New England during
this time. However there will be a brief cool down Sunday across
eastern MA and RI as a shallow cool airmass invades this area
behind a backdoor cold front. Otherwise much of this forecast
period will be warmer than normal (normal highs around 70, normal
lows around 50).

As for rain chances...a prefrontal trough will enter western
portions of MA and CT Friday. However rising heights and
increasing anticyclonic mid level flow will likely suppress most
convective development. Likewise on Sat with the ridge continuing
to build and heights reaching +2 standard deviations above normal
over the northeast. By late Sat and into Sunday the backdoor front
provides surface convergence and shallow low level forcing first
north of MA Sat and then across much of the region Sunday. However
large amplitude ridge over the region along with mid level
anticyclonic flow may suppress much of the convection once again.
Thus model guidance is likely too wet especially the 12z GFS.
Therefore have undercut guidance from chance to slight chance pops
Fri/Sat and Sun. Greatest risk (albeit low) of seeing any
showers/thunderstorms Fri/Sat & Sunday will likely be across
western portions of MA and CT. Thus a washout is not expected
just isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms well
inland.

Mon and Tue of next week become interesting as area of convection
currently northeast of the bahamas advects northwestward around
the subtropical ridge into the mid Atlantic region. Then it
becomes a question if the upstream northern stream trough has
sufficient amplitude to capture this area tropical moisture and
advect it into southern New England. 00z GEFS and 00z EPS both
suggest bulk of tropical moisture remains offshore or just clips
south coast of New England and bulk of convection from northern
stream trough remains northwest across NY state and VT. Given the
time range and uncertainty chance pops seems reasonable here.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

1030 PM Update...

Overnight...High confidence. VFR. Light W-SW winds shift to W-NW
across N MA after 06Z-08Z.

Thursday...High confidence.  VFR.  Sea breezes will develop early on
both coasts.

Thursday night...Moderate confidence.  VFR conditions likely for
much of the period. Brief MVFR conditions possible in SCT
-SHRA/TSRA across W MA/N CT.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday...MVFR conditions likely with low risk of a few brief
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior. Also, some patchy
ground fog possible in the typically prone locations very early
Fri AM. Moderate to high forecast confidence.

Saturday...Moderate to high confidence. Any early MVFR conditions
should quickly lift to VFR by midday. Low risk of a few afternoon
and evening showers/thunderstorms well inland.

Sunday...Moderate confidence. MVFR likely with low risk of IFR in
spots. A few thunderstorms also possible Sun afternoon across the
interior.

Monday...Low confidence given time range and weather pattern. VFR
likely but period of MVFR in low risk of scattered showers/
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

High confidence. Winds and seas below small craft criteria
through Thursday night.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...High Confidence.

Winds and seas will generally remain below Small Craft Advisory
thresholds through the period.  The main concerns are a period of
near-shore southwesterly wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots Saturday
afternoon which will result in some choppy seas for mariners. May
also see some brief easterly wind gusts between 20 and 25 knots on
Sunday behind a backdoor cold front. Then winds become ssw Sunday
into Tue as front lifts north as a warm front.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for
     CTZ002>004.
MA...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020>024.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for
     MAZ002>005-008>014-017-018-020-021-023-026.
RI...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for RIZ003-004-
     006>008.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for
     RIZ001>008.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/RLG
NEAR TERM...Nocera/EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...Nocera
AVIATION...Nocera/RLG/EVT
MARINE...Nocera/RLG/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251426
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1026 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level ridge will bring very warm weather to most of the
region through Saturday, except for cooler temperatures at times
along the immediate coast. A backdoor cold front will bring cooler
weather to the region sometime on Sunday, but temperatures should
rebound to at or above normal by early next week. A few showers
and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into Friday, and
again this weekend but the vast majority of this time will be dry.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***Summer temperatures push in today across the region***

1030 AM Update...Most of the fog has cleared out across the area
with the exception of one band of fog that is hugging the south
coast of RI and moving eastward towards Buzzards Bay and the Cape.
If it continues on this trajectory without burning off, portions
of Cape Cod along the Cape Cod Canal as well as Martha`s Vineyard
and the Elizabeth Islands will see a period of fog later this
morning into early afternoon. Visibilities have been generally
about a mile with this bank of fog on land, it may be more dense
over the water. Made minor adjustments to the temperatures to ease
them back as they have not jumped up as quickly as forecast.
Otherwise, the previous forecast is on track.

Weak ridging at the surface and aloft will cross the region by
midday through the afternoon with NW winds aloft. Warm core H925
temps will push across the region, up to +19C to +22C by this
afternoon. Once skies become mostly sunny, temps will rise quickly
with excellent low and mid level mixing in place. Expect temps to
top off in the mid-upper 80s with a few spots touching 90.
However, dewpoints falling into the 40s will result in low
humidity levels.

High clouds will start to push in from the NW during the mid and
late afternoon ahead of H5 short wave across far northern New
England.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Tonight...

Most of the energy from a weak H5 shortwave trough will remain
across northern New England. NW flow keeps dry conditions across
the region tonight. The mid and upper level clouds will dissipate
overnight as SW winds shift back to W-NW and diminish. It will
remain mild, with temperatures only bottoming out from the mid 50s
well inland to lower-mid 60s across the coastal plain.

Thursday...

A cold front will slowly push S across the region during the day.
Clouds will push in from the W as the front moves in during the
afternoon. Short range models vary in their solutions, with mainly
dry conditions through the day offered by the ECMWF, but the GFS
tends to bring some moisture with a weak H5 shortwave in the W-NW
flow aloft. Have mentioned only slight chance PoPs moving into W
MA/N Central CT during the mid and late afternoon hours.

Have noted marginal instability with this system, plus another
day of warm temperatures, so have mentioned widely scattered
showers/isolated thunderstorms.

It will be another warm day, with somewhat higher dewpoints making
it feel a bit more humid. Highs will again be in the mid-upper 80s
away from the immediate coast, with a few spots possibly hitting
90 again.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights...

* Friday: Very warm w/highs mid-upper 80s northwest of BOS-PVD but
  a bit cooler across southeast MA/RI

* Saturday: Hot and a bit humid w/highs mainly upper 80s to lower
  90s away from the immediate south coast

* Sunday: Temps uncertain depending on timing of cold front, warmest
  readings likely CT River Valley w/coolest across Eastern MA coast

* A few showers/t-storms possible Thu night/Fri and again Sat/Sun
  but the vast majority of this time will be dry

* At or above normal temperatures likely return early next week

Details...

Thursday night...Shortwave energy and a burst of elevated
instability may result in a few showers/t-storms Thursday night,
mainly northwest of a Boston to Providence line. If any activity is
able to develop, it will be short-lived with the majority of the
night ending up dry. Low temps mainly in the upper 50s to the lower
60s.  May see some patchy ground fog develop late in the typically
prone locations.

Friday...Surface winds shift to the south-southwest behind the
warm front as 850T rise to around +14C. Plenty of sunshine should
allow highs to warm into the middle to upper 80s northwest of a
Boston to Providence line. Southeast of this line...a cooling
marine layer may hold highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.

Dry weather will dominate on Friday, but enough instability
combined with a pre-frontal trough may allow a few
showers/thunderstorms to develop across W MA/N CT Fri afternoon
and evening. Not sure if this activity gets into our region or
stays to our west, but highest risk will be across northwest MA.
Shear is rather weak so even if we see a few thunderstorms in our
western zones, overall severe weather threat is rather low.

Saturday...A hot and somewhat humid day is on tap to kick off the
Memorial Day Weekend.  850T around +16C, plenty of sunshine, and a
westerly component to the surface winds should allow for high temps
to reach into the upper 80s to the lower 90s away from the immediate
south coast. Dewpoints between 60 and 65 across most of the region
will make it feel a bit humid.

While most of the day will be dry, a few showers and
thunderstorms may develop Saturday afternoon and evening with a
pre-frontal trough and CAPE values between 1000 and 2000 J/KG.
This will be mainly to the northwest of a Boston to Providence
line. Forcing will be rather weak, so areal coverage of any
activity that develops may remain limited. Severe weather threat
also looks rather low at this time with rather weak 0 to 6 km
shear, but too early to rule out a strong thunderstorm or two
given decent instability.

Sunday...Low confidence on high temperatures given a subtle change
in timing of the backdoor cold front will make a big difference in
the exact outcome. We can say that the warmest readings will be
across the lower CT River Valley and coolest along the eastern MA
coast. Good shot though at the CT River Valley seeing high temps
reaching well into the 80s, while the eastern MA coast has
afternoon temps falling into the 60s. A few showers will remain
possible and perhaps even a couple of t-storms across the interior
if enough instability develops during the afternoon.

Monday and Tuesday...Backdoor cold front does not appear as strong
on the latest model runs.  It looks to washout across the region
early next week. GFS washes out on Monday while the ECMWF waits
until Tuesday. Probably should see the return to above normal temps
by Tue with rather warm temps aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...High confidence. VFR conditions expected the rest of the
day, except on the Cape and Islands where fog may reduce
visibilities down to MVFR/IFR at times.

Tonight...High confidence. VFR conditions. W-NW winds 10 kt or
less.

Thursday...High confidence. VFR. Light W-NW winds, except sea
breezes possible late morning/afternoon along the coast.

KBOS TAF...Moderate to high confidence. An ESE sea breeze has
developed and is expected to continue into early afternoon.
Southwesterly winds should overcome this by late afternoon.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday night and Friday...Moderate to high confidence.  VFR
conditions likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible
in a few brief showers/t-storms mainly across the interior. Also,
some patchy ground fog possible in the typically prone locations
very early Fri AM.

Saturday...Moderate to high confidence. VFR conditions likely
dominate but a brief period of MVFR-IFR cigs/vsbys possible in a
few afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms.

Sunday...Low confidence.  MVFR-IFR conditions may develop from east
to west behind a backdoor cold front.  A few thunderstorms also
possible Sun afternoon across the interior.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...High confidence.  W winds up to 10 kt will back to SW
10-15 kt this afternoon with gusts up to 20 kt on the southern
outer waters. Seas 4 ft or less. Patchy fog mainly along the south
coast will result in reduced visibilities at times.

Tonight...High confidence.  Light southwesterly winds become
westerly, gusting up to 20 kt on the southern outer waters this
evening. Seas 4 ft or less.

Thursday...High confidence.  Light W winds shifting to S in the
afternoon. Seas remain below 5 ft.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...High Confidence.

Winds and seas will generally remain below Small Craft Advisory
thresholds through the period.  The main concerns are a period of
near-shore southwesterly wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots Saturday
afternoon which will result in some choppy seas for mariners. May
also see some brief easterly wind gusts between 20 and 25 knots on
Sunday behind a backdoor cold front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today...Expect temperatures will rise quickly, soaring well into
the 80s to near 90 across most locations except cooler along the
immediate south coast. These temperatures will combine with
dewpoints dropping into the 40s resulting in afternoon RH values down
to between 20 and 30 percent. A few hours of westerly wind gusts up
to 20 to perhaps briefly 25 mph are anticipated. Given Tuesday`s
rainfall and marginal criteria, will fall short of needing fire
weather headlines. Many locations are close to or already at full
green-up.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020>024.
RI...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for RIZ003-004-
     006>008.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/EVT
NEAR TERM...Frank/RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/EVT
MARINE...Frank/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...Staff




000
FXUS61 KGYX 251411
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1011 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunshine and warmer weather will return today ahead of a cold front.
The front will bring clouds and a few showers and thunderstorms
to the area this afternoon and early evening. A ridge of high
pressure will build over the area tonight... then hold over the
region on Thursday as a warm front approaches from the west. The
warm front will stall over the region Thursday night and Friday
and will finally push east of the region on Saturday. A cold front
will cross the region Saturday night then stall just to our south
on Sunday. The front will return north as a warm front on Memorial
Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
Threat for some hail and gusty winds continues this afternoon and
evening for Northern NH and adjacent western Maine. Coordination
has occurred with Caribou for some enhanced wording for hail and
gusty winds.

Have updated the grids based on latest observations and mesoscale
model data. Low level moisture continues to increase over the
region while the atmosphere remains capped. Fog has mixed out in
many inland areas and destabilization has begun. Northwest front
aloft, favorable for strong thunderstorms will accompany a cold
pool aloft and surface cold front as it passes through the region.
Steep low level lapse rates will develop with the
afternoon surface heating. CAPE values will continue increase
while the cap is breaking. However, highest CAPE values, AOA 1000
J/KG may remain north of the border. Will continue to highlight
the threat for storms over the afforementioned area in our
products and social media.

May have to nudge temperatures upward along the coast, depending
on whether there will be a significant onshore flow or not. In the
meantime, portions of southernmost NH may nudge 90 degrees this
afternoon.

PREV DISC...
At o6z...weakening low pressure surface and aloft was over the
gulf of Maine. While showers had ended...clouds and areas of
drizzle and fog were lingering across the forecast area.
Conditions will improve later this morning as the system slides
well east of the area. The clouds and fog will break by shortly
after sunrise with southerly flow and 850 millibar temperatures
near plus 14C boosting temperatures into the 80s away from the
coast where onshore trajectory will temper the heat today.
shortwave impulse on GOES Water Vapor imagery north of the Great
Lakes will race eastward with associated cold front over Quebec
approaching international border region late today. While moisture
and wind fields aren`t overly impressive...the modified BUFKIT
forecast soundings for late today suggest gusty winds and small
hail are a possibility with the stronger cells. I`ve included
enhanced wording in the grids for that area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
convection will quickly end this evening with loss of heating and
as upper support exits the coast. Clearing and cool tonight behind
the front with some late night valley stratus and fog as a ridge
of high pressure noses in from the north. Lows tonight will range
from upper 40s near the international border to around 60 at the
New Hampshire seacoast. The ridge will crest across the area on
Thursday with sunshine and warm temperatures. Highs will range
from the mid 70s to lower 80s...before turning cooler by afternoon
along the coast in a developing seabreeze.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Model guidance is in good agreement on overall extended pattern
into next week. Ridging will build into the region from the Wrn
Atlantic...with the axis running thru New England. It will be a
good potential pattern. Potential for some above normal
temps...perhaps even 90...to work into parts of Nrn New England.
But also the potential for a passing s/wv trof to knock the ridge
down and backdoor some of the area. As things stand this
morning...there is some consistency and consensus that a hotter
day is possible Sat...while a backdoor cold front is possible Sun
especially for Ern zones. With that boundary separating hot and
cold air lingering nearby...a focus for showers or tstms will also
be present into early next week. Cannot completely rule out rnfl
in the extended...but there is not enough confidence for likely
PoP either.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /through Thursday/...Sct MVFR across the mtns this PM
and evening with brief lcl ifr psb in -shra/tsra. Areas of mvfr
and lcl ifr dvlpg btw 08-12z Thu in valley stratus and fog...bcmg
vfr throughout aft 13z Thu.

Long Term...In general high pressure looks to be in control of the
forecast area thru early next week. VFR conditions should prevail
as a result. However...there will be a risk for scattered shra or
maybe even tstms and MVFR or local IFR that go with them.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Thursday/...No flags expected.

Long Term...With ridging generally in place over the waters thru
the extended...SCA conditions are not expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm temperatures today but with scattered showers and
thunderstorms later today. Good relative humidity recovery follows
for tonight. Thursday will be one of the only dry days of the
week. Afternoon relative humidity values on Thursday may hover
near 30%...but winds will be light. We are forecasting all areas
to receive rainfall this week albeit light.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 251337
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
937 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunshine and warmer weather will return today ahead of a cold front.
The front will bring clouds and a few showers and thunderstorms
to the area this afternoon and early evening. A ridge of high
pressure will build over the area tonight... then hold over the
region on Thursday as a warm front approaches from the west. The
warm front will stall over the region Thursday night and Friday
and will finally push east of the region on Saturday. A cold front
will cross the region Saturday night then stall just to our south
on Sunday. The front will return north as a warm front on Memorial
Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
Threat for some hail and gusty winds continues this afternoon and
evening for Northern NH and adjacent western Maine.

Have updated the grids based on latest observations and mesoscale
model data. Low level moisture continues to increase over the
region while the atmosphere remains capped. Fog has mixed out in
many inland areas and destabilization has begun. Northwest front
aloft, favorable for strong thunderstorms will accompany a cold
pool aloft and surface cold front as it passes through the region.
CAPE values increase after the cap is broken. Will continue to
highlight the threat for storms over the afforementioned area in
our products and social media.

May have to nudge temperatures upward along the coast, depending
on whether there will be a significant onshore flow or not. In the
meantime, portions of southernmost NH may nudge 90 degrees this
afternoon.

PREV DISC...
At o6z...weakening low pressure surface and aloft was over the
gulf of Maine. While showers had ended...clouds and areas of
drizzle and fog were lingering across the forecast area.
Conditions will improve later this morning as the system slides
well east of the area. The clouds and fog will break by shortly
after sunrise with southerly flow and 850 millibar temperatures
near plus 14C boosting temperatures into the 80s away from the
coast where onshore trajectory will temper the heat today.
shortwave impulse on GOES Water Vapor imagery north of the Great
Lakes will race eastward with associated cold front over Quebec
approaching international border region late today. While moisture
and wind fields aren`t overly impressive...the modified BUFKIT
forecast soundings for late today suggest gusty winds and small
hail are a possibility with the stronger cells. I`ve included
enhanced wording in the grids for that area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
convection will quickly end this evening with loss of heating and
as upper support exits the coast. Clearing and cool tonight behind
the front with some late night valley stratus and fog as a ridge
of high pressure noses in from the north. Lows tonight will range
from upper 40s near the international border to around 60 at the
New Hampshire seacoast. The ridge will crest across the area on
Thursday with sunshine and warm temperatures. Highs will range
from the mid 70s to lower 80s...before turning cooler by afternoon
along the coast in a developing seabreeze.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Model guidance is in good agreement on overall extended pattern
into next week. Ridging will build into the region from the Wrn
Atlantic...with the axis running thru New England. It will be a
good potential pattern. Potential for some above normal
temps...perhaps even 90...to work into parts of Nrn New England.
But also the potential for a passing s/wv trof to knock the ridge
down and backdoor some of the area. As things stand this
morning...there is some consistency and consensus that a hotter
day is possible Sat...while a backdoor cold front is possible Sun
especially for Ern zones. With that boundary separating hot and
cold air lingering nearby...a focus for showers or tstms will also
be present into early next week. Cannot completely rule out rnfl
in the extended...but there is not enough confidence for likely
PoP either.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /through Thursday/...Sct MVFR across the mtns this PM
and evening with brief lcl ifr psb in -shra/tsra. Areas of mvfr
and lcl ifr dvlpg btw 08-12z Thu in valley stratus and fog...bcmg
vfr throughout aft 13z Thu.

Long Term...In general high pressure looks to be in control of the
forecast area thru early next week. VFR conditions should prevail
as a result. However...there will be a risk for scattered shra or
maybe even tstms and MVFR or local IFR that go with them.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Thursday/...No flags expected.

Long Term...With ridging generally in place over the waters thru
the extended...SCA conditions are not expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm temperatures today but with scattered showers and
thunderstorms later today. Good relative humidity recovery follows
for tonight. Thursday will be one of the only dry days of the
week. Afternoon relative humidity values on Thursday may hover
near 30%...but winds will be light. We are forecasting all areas
to receive rainfall this week albeit light.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 251025
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
625 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunshine and warmer weather will return today ahead of a cold front.
The front will bring clouds and a few showers and thunderstorms
to the area this afternoon and early evening. A ridge of high
pressure will build over the area tonight... then hold over the
region on Thursday as a warm front approaches from the west. The
warm front will stall over the region Thursday night and Friday
and will finally push east of the region on Saturday. A cold front
will cross the region Saturday night then stall just to our south
on Sunday. The front will return north as a warm front on Memorial
Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

622 AM...minor ESTF update to reflect current satellite trend and
to incorporate the 10z mesonet in near term grids.

PREV DISC...
At o6z...weakening low pressure surface and aloft was over the
gulf of Maine. While showers had ended...clouds and areas of
drizzle and fog were lingering across the forecast area.
Conditions will improve later this morning as the system slides
well east of the area. The clouds and fog will break by shortly
after sunrise with southerly flow and 850 millibar temperatures
near plus 14C boosting temperatures into the 80s away from the
coast where onshore trajectory will temper the heat today.
shortwave impulse on GOES Water Vapor imagery north of the Great
Lakes will race eastward with associated cold front over Quebec
approaching international border region late today. While moisture
and wind fields aren`t overly impressive...the modified BUFKIT
forecast soundings for late today suggest gusty winds and small
hail are a possibility with the stronger cells. I`ve included
enhanced wording in the grids for that area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
convection will quickly end this evening with loss of heating and
as upper support exits the coast. Clearing and cool tonight behind
the front with some late night valley stratus and fog as a ridge
of high pressure noses in from the north. Lows tonight will range
from upper 40s near the international border to around 60 at the
New Hampshire seacoast. The ridge will crest across the area on
Thursday with sunshine and warm temperatures. Highs will range
from the mid 70s to lower 80s...before turning cooler by afternoon
along the coast in a developing seabreeze.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Model guidance is in good agreement on overall extended pattern
into next week. Ridging will build into the region from the Wrn
Atlantic...with the axis running thru New England. It will be a
good potential pattern. Potential for some above normal
temps...perhaps even 90...to work into parts of Nrn New England.
But also the potential for a passing s/wv trof to knock the ridge
down and backdoor some of the area. As things stand this
morning...there is some consistency and consensus that a hotter
day is possible Sat...while a backdoor cold front is possible Sun
especially for Ern zones. With that boundary separating hot and
cold air lingering nearby...a focus for showers or tstms will also
be present into early next week. Cannot completely rule out rnfl
in the extended...but there is not enough confidence for likely
PoP either.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /through Thursday/...areas of mvfr/ifr in ceiling and
fog through 13z...then improving to vfr throughout. Sct MVFR
across the mtns this PM and evening with brief lcl ifr psb in
-shra/tsra. Areas of mvfr and lcl ifr dvlpg btw 08-12z Thu in
valley stratus and fog...bcmg vfr throughout aft 13z Thu.

Long Term...In general high pressure looks to be in control of the
forecast area thru early next week. VFR conditions should prevail
as a result. However...there will be a risk for scattered shra or
maybe even tstms and MVFR or local IFR that go with them.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Thursday/...No flags expected.

Long Term...With ridging generally in place over the waters thru
the extended...SCA conditions are not expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm temperatures today but with scattered showers and
thunderstorms later today. Good relative humidity recovery follows
for tonight. Thursday will be one of the only dry days of the
week. Afternoon relative humidity values on Thursday may hover
near 30%...but winds will be light. We are forecasting all areas
to receive rainfall this week albeit light.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
es




000
FXUS61 KGYX 250731
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
331 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunshine and warmer weather will return today ahead of a cold front.
The front will bring clouds and a few showers and thunderstorms
to the area this afternoon and early evening. A ridge of high
pressure will build over the area tonight... then hold over the
region on Thursday as a warm front approaches from the west. The
warm front will stall over the region Thursday night and Friday
and will finally push east of the region on Saturday. A cold front
will cross the region Saturday night then stall just to our south
on Sunday. The front will return north as a warm front on Memorial
Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
At o6z...weakening low pressure surface and aloft was over the
gulf of Maine. While showers had ended...clouds and areas of
drizzle and fog were lingering across the forecast area.
Conditions will improve later this morning as the system slides
well east of the area. The clouds and fog will break by shortly
after sunrise with southerly flow and 850 millibar temperatures
near plus 14C boosting temperatures into the 80s away from the
coast where onshore trajectory will temper the heat today.
shortwave impulse on GOES Water Vapor imagery north of the Great
Lakes will race eastward with associated cold front over Quebec
approaching international border region late today. While moisture
and wind fields aren`t overly impressive...the modified BUFKIT
forecast soundings for late today suggest gusty winds and small
hail are a possibility with the stronger cells. I`ve included
enhanced wording in the grids for that area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
convection will quickly end this evening with loss of heating and
as upper support exits the coast. Clearing and cool tonight behind
the front with some late night valley stratus and fog as a ridge
of high pressure noses in from the north. Lows tonight will range
from upper 40s near the international border to around 60 at the
New Hampshire seacoast. The ridge will crest across the area on
Thursday with sunshine and warm temperatures. Highs will range
from the mid 70s to lower 80s...before turning cooler by afternoon
along the coast in a developing seabreeze.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Model guidance is in good agreement on overall extended pattern
into next week. Ridging will build into the region from the Wrn
Atlantic...with the axis running thru New England. It will be a
good potential pattern. Potential for some above normal
temps...perhaps even 90...to work into parts of Nrn New England.
But also the potential for a passing s/wv trof to knock the ridge
down and backdoor some of the area. As things stand this
morning...there is some consistency and consensus that a hotter
day is possible Sat...while a backdoor cold front is possible Sun
especially for Ern zones. With that boundary separating hot and
cold air lingering nearby...a focus for showers or tstms will also
be present into early next week. Cannot completely rule out rnfl
in the extended...but there is not enough confidence for likely
PoP either.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Short Term /through Thursday/...areas of mvfr/ifr in ceiling and
fog through 13z...then improving to vfr throughout. Sct MVFR
across the mtns this PM and evening with brief lcl ifr psb in
-shra/tsra. Areas of mvfr and lcl ifr dvlpg btw 08-12z Thu in
valley stratus and fog...bcmg vfr throughout aft 13z Thu.

Long Term...In general high pressure looks to be in control of the
forecast area thru early next week. VFR conditions should prevail
as a result. However...there will be a risk for scattered shra or
maybe even tstms and MVFR or local IFR that go with them.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Thursday/...No flags expected.

Long Term...With ridging generally in place over the waters thru
the extended...SCA conditions are not expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm temperatures today but with scattered showers and
thunderstorms later today. Good relative humidity recovery follows
for tonight. Thursday will be one of the only dry days of the
week. Afternoon relative humidity values on Thursday may hover
near 30%...but winds will be light. We are forecasting all areas
to receive rainfall this week albeit light.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Schwibs/Legro




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250629
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
229 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A few leftover showers may fall across western MA and north
central Conn., as well as south coastal MA and RI through the
early this morning as low pressure slowly moves northeast to the
Gulf of Maine. An upper level high pressure ridge will then bring
very warm to hot weather to most of the region Wednesday through
Saturday, except for cooler temperatures at times on the immediate
coast. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night
into Friday, but a better chance exists Saturday afternoon and
evening ahead of a backdoor cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

145 AM Update...

H5 cutoff low has pushed just E of Cape Cod as seen on latest
water vapor and IR satellite imagery. Winds have diminished to
near calm away from the coast at 05Z obs. Noting patchy dense fog
has started to form across portions of the CT valley into NE CT.
May see more develop over the next few hours across central and
western areas. May also see a few showers develop with the last
of the band crossing out the Berkshires through 08Z-09Z.

Remainder of previous forecast in pretty good shape, but have
updated to bring current.

Previous discussion...

With light winds across the region, along with lowering
temp/dewpoint spreads, will still see patchy fog develop along
with lingering low clouds from around Worcester and Windham
counties eastward through around midnight, but trends continue to
indicate that this should slowly push E during the early morning
hours as the low exits, but will be slowest across E coastal MA.
Partial clearing should begin moving into the CT valley after
midnight as winds back to light NW, then will slowly shift E
overnight. Clouds will linger along the E coast through daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

*** Summer-like Temperatures Move in Today ***

Today ...

Vertically stacked low just east of Cape Cod at 12z/8am but ejects
seaward quickly with rising heights and northwest flow aloft by
midday. Thus any cloudiness across Eastern MA at sunrise quickly
erodes and/or moves offshore with abundant sunshine for the
afternoon. Warming temps aloft to +14c at 850 mb and +21c at 925 mb
yields surface temps at least 30C/86F. Although with boundary layer
mixing beyond 850 mb highs will make a run at 90 in many locations.
However humidity will be low with dew pts only in the mid to upper
40s. Not as warm along the South Coast including Cape Cod and the
Islands...where winds will bend to the southwest off the cooler
ocean waters.

Wed night ...

Dry, tranquil weather with mid level ridge and associated
anticyclonic flow continuing to build across the region from the
west.  Dry airmass in place along with diminishing winds and mostly
clear skies will allow temps to fall into the 50s...except 60-65 in
the urban areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* Well above average temperatures for Thu and Fri with the potential
  for a spot thunderstorm
* Hazy, Hot and Humid for Saturday with locations reaching 90+F
* Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
* Back door cold front on Sunday will keep conditions cool into
  Monday

OVERVIEW...

Large scale pattern is in agreement with both determinisic and
ensemble guidance. Upper level trough will move eastward towards the
Maritimes as Midwest ridge builds into the Northeast. Anomalous
high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to build this
ridge through Saturday. Anticipate summer-like warmth and humidity
to return to the region as ensembles show both the 700 and 500
heights nearly 1-2 standard deviations above normal. Several waves
will move through the flow keeping a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast for Late Thursday and again on
Saturday. Because of the mesoscale differences in the guidance
trended the forecast towards an overall blend. Back door cold front
will swing through by Sunday cooling the area down. However, on
Monday, still some discrepancies with offshore high pressure. The
GFS keeps it closer to the coast keeping temps on Monday cooler
while the EC is weaker and more offshore. Continued with a model
blend for now.

DAILIES...

Thursday into Friday...High Confidence.

Upper level ridge will build into the region on each day. Anticipate
the warm weather to continue into Thursday as 925 mb temps are
generally around 20C. This warm airmass combined with westerly flow
and the warm May sun will help aid in high temps reaching into the
mid to upper 80s with a few 90s near the CT valley. Conditions look
to be cooler along the MA coastline as a sea breeze will develop
from weak winds aloft. A spot shower or thunderstorm may develop in
the afternoon, but most of the region will remain dry.

Weak shortwave will pass through the flow Thursday night. Due to
building heights across the region and weak southwesterly flow,
appears that the better forcing will be north of southern New
England. However, cannot rule out the potential for precip Thursday
night into Friday morning across the north and northwest portion of
the region. Guidance continues to highlight the potential for
elevated convection so continued the mention for thunder in the
forecast for now.

Temperatures on Friday look to be similar as they will be on
Thursday with heights in the mid to upper 80s with a few 90F across
the CT valley. Still a large spread in the guidance on if Boston
will reach 80F as there is question in the sea breeze development.
However 925 mb winds appear to be strong enough to allow for good SW
flow to warm the immediate eastern coastline. This southwest flow
will keep the south coast cooler thanks to onshore flow and the
cooler ocean waters.

Once again a spot shower looks to be possible in the afternoon, but
better forcing and instability appears to remain west of the region.
So another dry weather day is expected.

Saturday...Moderate Confidence

Upper level ridge will strengthen across the the eastern Great Lakes
as warm front lifts northward. A very warm day will be on tap as 925
mb temps will warm to 23-24C. Ensembles continue to show
probabilities that many locations could reach above 90F. This hazy,
hot and humid day does have some caveats. Approaching surface trough
looks to trigger afternoon convection for the region. Some storms
could be strong or severe, but a bit to early to tell.

Sunday into Monday...Moderate Confidence.

Back door cold front will swing through the region late Saturday
night into Sunday. This will cool temperatures down across the
region. The front does look to push and stall across the Hudson.
However, could still see upper 70s or low 80s across the CT river
valley as 925 mb temps are between 18-20C. Otherwise anticipate a
cooler weather day.

Still large spread for surface temps on Monday. GFS and EC have
about a 15 degree difference amongst each other. The GFS is cooler
with highs in the low 70s while the EC is warmer with highs in the
low 80s. Continued with a model blend for now to split the
difference. May see a few sct showers on Monday depending on the
location of the southeast low pressure system and how quickly it
moves northwards towards the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 12Z...Moderate confidence, though lower in timing of
improving conditions toward daybreak.

Areas of IFR-LIFR CIGS and mixture of VFR to IFR VSBYS in patchy
fog, lowest across interior E MA and portions of CT valley into NE
CT. Should start to see conditions improve to VFR across CT
valley after 08Z, then slowly progressing E after daybreak. Calm
or light/vrbl winds.

Today...Moderate confidence this morning, then high confidence.

IFR CIGS and areas of MVFR-IFR VSBYS across central-E MA/RI should
improve by mid morning. Otherwise, VFR. W-SW winds 10 kt or less.

Tonight...High confidence. VFR conditions. W-NW winds less than 10
kt.

Thursday...High confidence. VFR. Light W-NW winds, except sea
breezes possible late morning/afternoon along the coast.

KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence. Uncertain on exact timing of
improvement, but should take place by around 10Z.

KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence.  otherwise VFR.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday night and Friday...Moderate confidence. VFR conditions
likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible in a few
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior.

Saturday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions but brief
MVFR- IFR conditions possible Saturday afternoon/evening in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday...Low confidence. MVFR conditions to start with some
improvements on Sunday as a back door front swings through.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 12Z...High confidence.

Upper level low will slowly move into Massachusetts Bay during
the early morning hours. Light E-NE winds across the eastern
waters will back to N-NW, becoming mainly W of all waters toward
daybreak. Leftover SE swells will linger on the outer waters E
and S of Cape Cod, but should subside below 5 ft by around 08Z-
09Z. Visibility restrictions in patchy fog, locally dense in some
locations, should improve from W-E.

Today...High confidence on all weather parameters.

Low pressure near Cape Cod at sunrise moves east/offshore by
midday with a drying trend and vsby improving to the horizon.
Winds become southwest by midday.

Tonight...High confidence.

Light southwest winds become westerly. Dry weather and vsby
continue.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...High Confidence.

Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
the majority of the period. Could see some brief near shore
southwest wind gusts of 15 to 20 knots are possible Friday and
Saturday...which will result in some choppy seas. Otherwise could
see some afternoon convection on Saturday as a back door cold
front swings through.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday...High temperatures soaring well into the 80s to near
90 in most locations will result in minimum afternoon RH values
dropping to between 20 and 30 percent. A few hours of westerly
wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph are anticipated. Given today`s rainfall
and marginal criteria, will probably fall short on the need for
fire weather headlines especially given many locations are near
full green-up.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for MAZ020>024.
RI...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for RIZ003-004-006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 AM EDT early
     this morning for ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/Dunten
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...Dunten
AVIATION...Dunten/EVT
MARINE...Nocera/Dunten/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...Staff




000
FXUS61 KGYX 250058 AAB
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
858 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure surface and aloft will drift northward across the
region through early tonight. This system will bring unsettled
weather with clouds and scattered showers and thunderstorms. This
weakening system will exit into the Canadian Maritimes tonight.
Warmer weather will return on Wednesday ahead of a cold front. The
cold front will bring clouds and a few showers and thunderstorms
to the area Wednesday afternoon and evening. A ridge of high
pressure will build over the area Wednesday night and will hold
over the region on Thursday as a warm front approaches from the
west. The warm front will stall over the region Thursday night and
Friday and will finally push east of the region on Saturday. A
cold front will cross the region Saturday night followed by high
pressure and dry air to round out the holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
855pm update: Minor updates this hour to increase cloud
cover...and continue PoPs for a few hours along the NH/VT border
west of HIE. Temperatures remain in good shape. Noting gradually
decreasing visibilities along the coast...with evening webcams
corroborating current fog/drizzle area in the forecast well.

507pm update: Have updated this hour to clear out PoPs to the
east of exiting band of showers, with anything to the east of this
taking the form of drizzle. Have seen some improvement in sky
cover from recent visible satellite imagery and have also tried to
capture this trend heading through the evening hours. Temperatures
are generally on track.

Previous Discussion Below...
Upper level trough over Cape Cod continues to slowly migrate off
to the north and east. Band of precipitation extends from northern
Coos county in New Hampshire south and west across southern
Vermont. Instability under the trough will be just enough to keep
a mention of showers in the forecast overnight.

Onshore flow along the coast has been producing a very low cloud
deck along with fog and drizzle. Those conditions should persist
until the winds turn around to the west later tonight. Once the
winds switch then the drizzle should come to an end. However...it
will likely take sunshine tomorrow morning before the fog
dissipates.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough will finally pull away from the area tomorrow
and tomorrow night... leaving a more progressive and zonal upper
air pattern in place. A weak frontal boundary tries to nudge south
out of Canada and into the mountains of New Hampshire and western
Maine tomorrow afternoon. This feature may generate enough
instability to get some scattered thunderstorms going...but they
should be relatively weak and unorganized.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Warm weather continues Thursday as high pressure builds in
further at the surface and aloft. Temperatures should warm
quickly in a relatively dry airmass with some clouds remaining
over the higher terrain and mostly sunny skies across the coastal
plain. A warm front approaches from the SW during the late
evening hours...but it will take a while for the atmospheric
column to saturate so not expecting anything but sprinkles and
scattered showers over NH early on.

By the early morning hours Friday we should see more coverage over
NH and western Maine. The warm front will lift across
northern sections providing a focus for showers and thunderstorms
along the boundary with decent instability for areas far enough
away from the onshore flow.

PW values during the Friday to Saturday time frame jump from 1.4
inches areawide Friday to around 1.7 inches along the coast
Saturday as a cold front crosses the region. The cold front will
trigger more widespread convection with another chance at
thunderstorms Saturday.

The cool air regime continues with more air moving in from
the Canadian maritimes through early next week. In the upper
levels of the atmosphere we will shift to NW flow keeping skies
cloudy and a few showers around as weak impulses move SE. High
pressure builds in from eastern Canada Sunday with slightly
cooler temperatures as cool, dry air filters in. Likewise Monday
morning will be a little cool with temperatures primarily in the
40s. Preliminary guidance indicates ridging building in again by
midweek with increasing temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...

Summary: Low pressure nearly overhead this evening will lift north
and east through Wednesday with a cold front nearing the region from
the north and west Wednesday evening.

Restrictions: Conditions are widely varying at the terminals this
evening with IFR/LIFR along the coastal sites...with better
conditions as one moves inland.  Coastal locations will likely
deteriorate some overnight with thickening fog and some drizzle
anchoring VLIFR/IFR conditions at these locations.  Inland...with
ample low level moisture and light winds...any clearing will allow
fog to develop with local VLIFR/IFR at sites such as LEB and HIE as
well. Conditions will improve dramatically to VFR during the morning
hours Wednesday...with the last to see improvement likely being AUG
and RKD.  A shower/thunderstorm may approach HIE towards the very
end of the valid TAF period...but coverage is not expected to be
great enough to warrant mention in the TAFs at this range.

Winds: Light winds /less than 10kts/ cyclonically rotating around
low pressure just south of the region /mostly east and northeasterly
at the terminals/ will continue through tonight before becoming
increasingly westerly 5-10kts for the day on Wednesday.

LLWS: No threats this cycle.

Thunder: With shower activity pulling west of the evening...expect
little to no threat of thunder overnight through Wednesday morning.
Isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely past just
north and east of the terminals Wednesday evening...with low
probabilities of activity reaching HIE before 00z Thursday.

Long Term...VFR conditions Thursday with rain showers developing
across NH and northwestern Maine Friday. MVFR or IFR conditions
are most likely across KHIE and KLEB. TSRA is possible. On
Saturday more widespread showers and thunderstorms are possible
with MVFR or IFR conditions possible at all terminals through the
night.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...No flags expected.

Long Term...Winds and seas will remain on the calm end of the
spectrum Thursday through next Tuesday. The pressure gradient will
increase Friday afternoon causing a few gusts to 20 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thursday will be one of the only dry days of the week. RH values
may hover near 30% but winds will be light. We are forecasting all
areas to receive rainfall this week albeit light.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Arnott
SHORT TERM...Pohl
LONG TERM...Hanes
AVIATION...Arnott
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 242303
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
703 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will continue across portions of Southern RI
and southeast MA early this evening as low pressure slowly moves
across southeastern New England. An upper level high pressure
ridge will then bring very warm to hot weather to most of the
region Wednesday through Saturday, except for cooler temperatures
at times on the immediate coast. A few showers and thunderstorms
are possible Thursday night into Friday, but a better chance
exists Saturday afternoon and evening ahead of a backdoor cold
front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

700 PM Update...

Overall forecast is on track. Removed the thunder mention for this
evening as convection has remained just west of southern New
England. Also increased precip trends across RI and southeast MA
as area of showers continues to develop and spin as the upper
level low begins to slowly shift eastward. Otherwise breaks of sun
across western MA as allowed for temps to warm in to the upper 60s
late this afternoon. Onshore flow across eastern MA will continue
until the low shifts eastward creating more of a northerly flow.
Fog and drizzle will remain over the next several hours.

May need to watch for radiational fog development tonight across
the low lying areas as lingering low level moisture combined with
cooling temperatures will create a low temp/dewpoint spread. Dense
fog is not expected at this time.


Previous Discussion...

An area of showers may develop over Southern-Southeastern RI into
Southeast MA as plume of deeper moisture pivots northeast off the
ocean into that area. This is supported by multi model K indices
and latest trends seen on water vapor satellite imagery. Already
seeing the first signs of this with light showers developing over
Marthas Vineyard and Elizabeth Islands. However these showers
should be weak/low top with not a lot of impact. Thus not a
washout expected this evening.

Otherwise drying trend second half of the night as vertically
stacked low moves offshore by sunrise.

Temps seasonably cool tonight with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
*** Summer-like Temperatures Arrive Wednesday ***

4 pm update ...

Wednesday ...

Vertically stacked low just east of Cape Cod at 12z/8am but ejects
seaward quickly with rising heights and northwest flow aloft by
midday. Thus any cloudiness across Eastern MA at sunrise quickly
erodes and/or moves offshore with abundant sunshine for the
afternoon. Warming temps aloft to +14c at 850 mb and +21c at 925 mb
yields surface temps at least 30C/86F. Although with boundary layer
mixing beyond 850 mb highs will make a run at 90 in many locations.
However humidity will be low with dew pts only in the mid to upper
40s. Not as warm along the South Coast including Cape Cod and the
Islands...where winds will bend to the southwest off the cooler
ocean waters.

Wed night ...

Dry, tranquil weather with mid level ridge and associated
anticyclonic flow continuing to build across the region from the
west.  Dry airmass in place along with diminishing winds and mostly
clear skies will allow temps to fall into the 50s...except 60-65 in
the urban areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* Well above average temperatures for Thu and Fri with the potential
  for a spot thunderstorm
* Hazy, Hot and Humid for Saturday with locations reaching 90+F
* Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
* Back door cold front on Sunday will keep conditions cool into
  Monday

OVERVIEW...

Large scale pattern is in agreement with both determinisic and
ensemble guidance. Upper level trough will move eastward towards the
Maritimes as Midwest ridge builds into the Northeast. Anomalous
high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to build this
ridge through Saturday. Anticipate summer-like warmth and humidity
to return to the region as ensembles show both the 700 and 500
heights nearly 1-2 standard deviations above normal. Several waves
will move through the flow keeping a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast for Late Thursday and again on
Saturday. Because of the mesoscale differences in the guidance
trended the forecast towards an overall blend. Back door cold front
will swing through by Sunday cooling the area down. However, on
Monday, still some discrepancies with offshore high pressure. The
GFS keeps it closer to the coast keeping temps on Monday cooler
while the EC is weaker and more offshore. Continued with a model
blend for now.

DAILIES...

Thursday into Friday...High Confidence.

Upper level ridge will build into the region on each day. Anticipate
the warm weather to continue into Thursday as 925 mb temps are
generally around 20C. This warm airmass combined with westerly flow
and the warm May sun will help aid in high temps reaching into the
mid to upper 80s with a few 90s near the CT valley. Conditions look
to be cooler along the MA coastline as a sea breeze will develop
from weak winds aloft. A spot shower or thunderstorm may develop in
the afternoon, but most of the region will remain dry.

Weak shortwave will pass through the flow Thursday night. Due to
building heights across the region and weak southwesterly flow,
appears that the better forcing will be north of southern New
England. However, cannot rule out the potential for precip Thursday
night into Friday morning across the north and northwest portion of
the region. Guidance continues to highlight the potential for
elevated convection so continued the mention for thunder in the
forecast for now.

Temperatures on Friday look to be similar as they will be on
Thursday with heights in the mid to upper 80s with a few 90F across
the CT valley. Still a large spread in the guidance on if Boston
will reach 80F as there is question in the sea breeze development.
However 925 mb winds appear to be strong enough to allow for good SW
flow to warm the immediate eastern coastline. This southwest flow
will keep the south coast cooler thanks to onshore flow and the
cooler ocean waters.

Once again a spot shower looks to be possible in the afternoon, but
better forcing and instability appears to remain west of the region.
So another dry weather day is expected.

Saturday...Moderate Confidence

Upper level ridge will strengthen across the the eastern Great Lakes
as warm front lifts northward. A very warm day will be on tap as 925
mb temps will warm to 23-24C. Ensembles continue to show
probabilities that many locations could reach above 90F. This hazy,
hot and humid day does have some caveats. Approaching surface trough
looks to trigger afternoon convection for the region. Some storms
could be strong or severe, but a bit to early to tell.

Sunday into Monday...Moderate Confidence.

Back door cold front will swing through the region late Saturday
night into Sunday. This will cool temperatures down across the
region. The front does look to push and stall across the Hudson.
However, could still see upper 70s or low 80s across the CT river
valley as 925 mb temps are between 18-20C. Otherwise anticipate a
cooler weather day.

Still large spread for surface temps on Monday. GFS and EC have
about a 15 degree difference amongst each other. The GFS is cooler
with highs in the low 70s while the EC is warmer with highs in the
low 80s. Continued with a model blend for now to split the
difference. May see a few sct showers on Monday depending on the
location of the southeast low pressure system and how quickly it
moves northwards towards the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight ... Moderate confidence with uncertainty centered around
except timing of improving conditions overnight.

Isolated lighter showers east of the Worcester Hills tonight.
Mainly MVFR all terminals except Coastal MA which will see periods
of IFR. VFR across the CT valley. Cigs and vsby improve from west
to east after 06z.

Wed ... high confidence.

Any leftover MVFR cigs at sunrise will be across Eastern MA but
quickly lifting to VFR by 15z or sooner. Dry weather and west
winds except southwest along the coast.

Wed night ... high confidence.

VFR/DRY and light sw winds becoming west.

KBOS TAF ... Moderate confidence. Some uncertainty on exact timing
of improvement but should take place around 06z.

KBDL TAF ... Moderate confidence. Some uncertainty on exact timing
of improvement but should take place around 03z-06z.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday...High confidence. VFR.

Thursday night and Friday...Moderate confidence.  VFR conditions
likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible in a few
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior.

Saturday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions but brief
MVFR- IFR conditions possible Saturday afternoon/evening in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday...Low confidence. MVFR conditions to start with some
improvements on Sunday as a back door front swings through.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

4 pm update ...

Tonight ... high confidence except uncertainty on areal coverage of
showers and exact timing.

Vertically stacked low over the RI waters will slowly drift to Cape
Cod by morning. Few light rain showers will accompany this low along
with patchy fog. Leftover southeast swell of 3-6 ft continue across
the Southeast MA ocean waters.

Wed ... high confidence on all weather parameters.

Low pressure near Cape Cod at sunrise moves east/offshore by midday
with a drying trend and vsby improving to the horizon. Winds become
southwest by midday.

Wed night ... high confidence.

Light southwest winds become westerly. Dry weather and vsby
continue.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...High Confidence.

Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
the majority of the period. Could see some brief near shore
southwest wind gusts of 15 to 20 knots are possible Friday and
Saturday...which will result in some choppy seas. Otherwise could
see some afternoon convection on Saturday as a back door cold
front swings through.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
4 pm update ...

Wednesday ... High temperatures soaring well into the 80s to near
90 in most locations will result in minimum afternoon RH values
dropping to between 20 and 30 percent. A few hours of westerly
wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph are anticipated. Given this morning`s
rainfall and marginal criteria, will probably fall short on the
need for fire weather headlines especially given many locations
are near full green-up.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for
     MAZ020>024.
RI...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for RIZ003-
     004-006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/Dunten
NEAR TERM...Nocera/Dunten
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...Dunten
AVIATION...Nocera/Dunten
MARINE...Nocera/Dunten
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 242011
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
411 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms over
Western portions of MA and CT will continue into early this
evening. Scattered showers may also develop across portions of
Southern RI and southeast MA early this evening as low pressure
slowly moves across southeastern New England. An upper level high
pressure ridge will then bring very warm to hot weather to most of
the region Wednesday through Saturday, except for cooler
temperatures at times on the immediate coast. A few showers and
thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into Friday, but a
better chance exists Saturday afternoon and evening ahead of a
backdoor cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

400 PM Update ...

Vertically stacked low over the region with -19c air at 500 mb. This
cold air aloft combined with cyclonic flow is resulting in
scattered showers and embedded thunder. The convection is focused
on the western side of the low where SPC mesoanalysis indicates some
baroclinicity at 850 mb and 925 mb along with some breaks of
sunshine yielding 250-500 j/kg of SB cape per mesoanalysis. This
will continue to be the theme thru sunset with convection focused
across this region.

A second area of showers may develop over Southern-Southeastern RI
into Southeast MA as plume of deeper moisture pivots northeast off
the ocean into that area. This is supported by multi model K indices
and latest trends seen on water vapor satellite imagery. Already
seeing the first signs of this with light showers developing over
Marthas Vineyard and Elizabeth Islands. However these showers should
be weak/low top with not a lot of impact. Thus not a washout
expected this evening.

Otherwise drying trend second half of the night as vertically
stacked low moves offshore by sunrise.

Temps seasonably cool tonight with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

*** Summer-like Temperatures Arrive Wednesday ***

4 pm update ...

Wednesday ...

Vertically stacked low just east of Cape Cod at 12z/8am but ejects
seaward quickly with rising heights and northwest flow aloft by
midday. Thus any cloudiness across Eastern MA at sunrise quickly
erodes and/or moves offshore with abundant sunshine for the
afternoon. Warming temps aloft to +14c at 850 mb and +21c at 925 mb
yields surface temps at least 30C/86F. Although with boundary layer
mixing beyond 850 mb highs will make a run at 90 in many locations.
However humidity will be low with dew pts only in the mid to upper
40s. Not as warm along the South Coast including Cape Cod and the
Islands...where winds will bend to the southwest off the cooler
ocean waters.

Wed night ...

Dry, tranquil weather with mid level ridge and associated
anticyclonic flow continuing to build across the region from the
west.  Dry airmass in place along with diminishing winds and mostly
clear skies will allow temps to fall into the 50s...except 60-65 in
the urban areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Highlights...

* Very warm Wed/Thu/Fri with highs well up into the 80s except
  cooler immediate coast at times
* Hot Saturday afternoon w/highs mainly upper 80s to the lower 90s
* A few showers/t-storms possible Thu night/Fri but best chance Sat
  afternoon/evening ahead of cold front
* Turning much cooler Sun and especially Mon along the coast


Details...

Wednesday night...Other than a low risk for a spot shower/t-storm
across the interior during the evening dry weather is expected
behind a weak cold front. Low temps will only fall back into the 50s
in most locations with 60 to 65 in some of the urban centers.  A
touch of patchy fog may develop in the typically prone locations
toward daybreak.

Thursday...Upper level ridging across the Southeast U.S. continues
to nose into southern New England.  This will result in plenty of
sunshine and with warm mid level temps, highs again should reach
well into the 80s in most locations.  However, gradient will be
weaker allowing for sea breezes to develop on the immediate Eastern
MA coast including Boston by early afternoon. High temps will still
likely reach well up into the 70s to near 80 in this region before
sea breezes develop and temps fall a bit. Should remain dry given
lack of forcing and upper level ridging nosing into this region.

Thursday night and Friday...A shortwave will lift northeast into
northern New England Thu night/Fri.  While the best forcing will to
our north, a few showers/t-storms are possible with the best chance
across western and northern MA.  Certainly not expecting a washout
though and the majority of the Thu night/Fri will be dry.
Still looks like a warm afternoon with temps into the 80s, but it
may be cooler across Northeast MA depending on location of backdoor
cold front.

Saturday...A hot day with westerly flow and 850T near 16c.  This
should yield highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s for most locations.
Dewpoints into the 60s will make it feel somewhat muggy.
Pre-frontal trough ahead of an approaching cold front may trigger
scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly Saturday afternoon and
evening.

Sunday and Monday...High pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will
build south into New England.  So despite rather high height fields,
northeast low level flow will result in much cooler temps Sun and
especially Mon particularly along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Some improvement in vsbys observed over past 1 to 2 hours but
cigs slow to rise in onshore flow across much of the area. Believe
will begin to rise into the VFR range across the CT River Valley
by mid afternoon. Rest of the area should see very slow
improvement into at least low MVFR cig range, although there could
be a few holdouts below one thousand feet in SE coastal areas.
Scattered showers and even isolated thunderstorm or two could
develop late this afternoon/evening over portions of RI and SE MA.
There could also be scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms that
develop during the late afternoon near the Berkshire Crest.

Tonight ... Moderate confidence with uncertainty centered around
except timing of improving conditions overnight.

Showers with isolated thunder focused across Western portions of
MA and CT. Isolated lighter showers elsewhere. Mainly MVFR all
terminals except Coastal MA. Showers dissipate with sunset and
cigs and vsby improve after 06z.

Wed ... high confidence.

Any leftover MVFR cigs at sunrise will be across Eastern MA but
quickly lifting to VFR by 15z or sooner. Dry weather and west
winds except southwest along the coast.

Wed night ... high confidence.

VFR/DRY and light sw winds becoming west.

KBOS TAF ... Moderate confidence. Some uncertainty on exact timing
of improvement but should take place around 06z.

KBDL TAF ... Moderate confidence. Some uncertainty on exact timing
of improvement but should take place around 03z-06z. Showers
should stay west of BDL airspace but will be close and need to
watch early this evening.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday...High confidence. VFR conditions other than a few hours
of patchy ground fog possible toward daybreak Thu in the typically
prone locations.

Thursday night and Friday...Moderate confidence.  VFR conditions
likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible in a few
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior.

Saturday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions but brief
MVFR- IFR conditions possible Saturday afternoon/evening in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

4 pm update ...

Tonight ... high confidence except uncertainty on areal coverage of
showers and exact timing.

Vertically stacked low over the RI waters will slowly drift to Cape
Cod by morning. Few light rain showers will accompany this low along
with patchy fog. Leftover southeast swell of 3-6 ft continue across
the Southeast MA ocean waters.

Wed ... high confidence on all weather parameters.

Low pressure near Cape Cod at sunrise moves east/offshore by midday
with a drying trend and vsby improving to the horizon. Winds become
southwest by midday.

Wed night ... high confidence.

Light southwest winds become westerly. Dry weather and vsby
continue.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...High Confidence.

Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
the majority of the period with the exception being Wednesday
night. Some brief near shore southwest wind gusts of 20 to 25
knots are likely Wed afternoon...which will result in some choppy
seas. In addition, long southwest fetch may bring a period of 5
foot seas across our southern waters Wednesday night which may
require headlines.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

4 pm update ...

Wednesday ... High temperatures soaring well into the 80s to near
90 in most locations will result in minimum afternoon RH values
dropping to between 20 and 30 percent. A few hours of westerly
wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph are anticipated. Given this morning`s
rainfall and marginal criteria, will probably fall short on the
need for fire weather headlines especially given many locations
are near full green-up.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for
     MAZ020>024.
RI...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for RIZ003-
     004-006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera
NEAR TERM...Nocera
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/Nocera
MARINE...Frank/Nocera
FIRE WEATHER...Nocera




000
FXUS61 KGYX 241917
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
317 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure surface and aloft will drift northward across the
region through early tonight. This system will bring unsettled
weather with clouds and scattered showers and thunderstorms. This
weakening system will exit into the Canadian Maritimes tonight.
Warmer weather will return on Wednesday ahead of a cold front. The
cold front will bring clouds and a few showers and thunderstorms
to the area Wednesday afternoon and evening. A ridge of high
pressure will build over the area Wednesday night and will hold
over the region on Thursday as a warm front approaches from the
west. The warm front will stall over the region Thursday night and
Friday and will finally push east of the region on Saturday. A
cold front will cross the region Saturday night followed by high
pressure and dry air to round out the holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Upper level trough over Cape Cod continues to slowly migrate off
to the north and east. Band of precipitation extends from northern
Coos county in New Hampshire south and west across southern
Vermont. Instability under the trough will be just enough to keep
a mention of showers in the forecast overnight.

Onshore flow along the coast has been producing a very low cloud
deck along with fog and drizzle. Those conditions should persist
until the winds turn around to the west later tonight. Once the
winds switch then the drizzle should come to an end. However...it
will likely take sunshine tomorrow morning before the fog
dissipates.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough will finally pull away from the area tomorrow
and tomorrow night... leaving a more progressive and zonal upper
air pattern in place. A weak frontal boundary tries to nudge south
out of Canada and into the mountains of New Hampshire and western
Maine tomorrow afternoon. This feature may generate enough
instability to get some scattered thunderstorms going...but they
should be relatively weak and unorganized.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Warm weather continues Thursday as high pressure builds in
further at the surface and aloft. Temperatures should warm
quickly in a relatively dry airmass with some clouds remaining
over the higher terrain and mostly sunny skies across the coastal
plain. A warm front approaches from the SW during the late
evening hours...but it will take a while for the atmospheric
column to saturate so not expecting anything but sprinkles and
scattered showers over NH early on.

By the early morning hours Friday we should see more coverage over
NH and western Maine. The warm front will lift across
northern sections providing a focus for showers and thunderstorms
along the boundary with decent instability for areas far enough
away from the onshore flow.

PW values during the Friday to Saturday time frame jump from 1.4
inches areawide Friday to around 1.7 inches along the coast
Saturday as a cold front crosses the region. The cold front will
trigger more widespread convection with another chance at
thunderstorms Saturday.

The cool air regime continues with more air moving in from
the Canadian maritimes through early next week. In the upper
levels of the atmosphere we will shift to NW flow keeping skies
cloudy and a few showers around as weak impulses move SE. High
pressure builds in from eastern Canada Sunday with slightly
cooler temperatures as cool, dry air filters in. Likewise Monday
morning will be a little cool with temperatures primarily in the
40s. Preliminary guidance indicates ridging building in again by
midweek with increasing temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...IFR/LIFR conditions tonight in fog...drizzle and low
ceilings. Expect conditions to improve tomorrow once the sun has a
little bit of time to burn away the fog. Expect VFR conditions
tomorrow and tomorrow night.

Long Term...VFR conditions Thursday with rain showers developing
across NH and northwestern Maine Friday. MVFR or IFR conditions
are most likely across KHIE and KLEB. TSRA is possible. On
Saturday more widespread showers and thunderstorms are possible
with MVFR or IFR conditions possible at all terminals through the
night.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...No flags expected.

Long Term...Winds and seas will remain on the calm end of the
spectrum Thursday through next Tuesday. The pressure gradient will
increase Friday afternoon causing a few gusts to 20 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thursday will be one of the only dry days of the week. RH values
may hover near 30% but winds will be light. We are forecasting all
areas to receive rainfall this week albeit light.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pohl
LONG TERM...Hanes




000
FXUS61 KGYX 241411
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1011 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure surface and aloft will drift northward across the
region today and early tonight. This system will bring unsettled
weather with clouds and scattered showers and thunderstorms. This
weakening system will exit into the Canadian Maritimes tonight.
Warmer weather will return on Wednesday ahead of a cold front. The
cold front will bring clouds and a few showers and thunderstorms
to the area Wednesday afternoon and evening. A ridge of high
pressure will build over the area Wednesday night and will hold
over the region on Thursday as a warm front approaches from the
west. The warm front will stall over the region Thursday night and
Friday and will finally push east of the region on Saturday. A
cold front will cross the region Saturday night followed by high
pressure and dry air to round out the holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1010am...Another quick update this morning to push the showers a
little further north.

835am...Will make a small update to adjust pops to better reflect
the precipitation over southern New Hampshire. Will also make a
few minor tweaks to temperatures.

644 AM...for this ESTF update I adjusted near term grids to
reflect radar trends and to ingest the latest mesonet.

PREV DISC...
At 06z...low pressure surface and aloft was centered to the south
of Long Island. GOES infrared imagery showed clouds with this system
continued to spread northward into the forecast area. For today...the
system will continue to drift north with lowering ceilings and
showers and a few thunderstorms working into the area as upper low
center moves nearly overhead. Highs will range from lower and mid
70s along the international border and Connecticut valley to lower
60s along the coast in strengthening onshore flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Convection will wind down from southwest to northeast this evening
with partial clearing and areas of fog developing as the system
exits into the maritimes. Lows tonight will range from the mid 40s
to lower 50s. On Wednesday...much warmer ahead of an approaching
shortwave impulse and associated cold front with highs ranging
from the mid 70s to lower 80s...except for some 60s along the
Maine mid coast in onshore flow. A few showers and thunderstorms
will develop by afternoon across northern and mountain sections
with a few cells possibly reaching southern and coastal sections
late in the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Any showers will dissipate or move out of the region early
Wednesday evening in the wake of a cold front. A dry Wednesday
night and Thursday is expected along with warm temperatures.

A warm front approaches from the southwest on Friday with an
attendant chance of showers and thunderstorms. This warm front
looks to move through the region in time for Saturday which should
allow for very warm temperatures away from the coast.

A short wave trough and attendant cold front will quickly
approach from the west Saturday afternoon and should spark another
round of showers and thunderstorms.

Strong Canadian high pressure will then move in from the north in
the wake of the front and clear us out for later Saturday night
and Sunday. A cooler and drier airmass will settle in place on
Sunday. At this time it looks like the high will remain entrenched
over the area to round out the holiday weekend with nice weather
on Monday.

Thereafter, warming temperatures should once again occur as deep
layer ridging builds.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /through Wednesday/...MVFR/IFR ceilings developing
this morning along with a few -shra and -tsra. conditions
gradually improve to vfr tonight with areas of mvfr and lcl ifr
redeveloping late in stratus and fog. bcmg vfr Wed am with sct
mvfr dvlpg during the pm in -shra/-tsra.

Long Term...VFR conditions are expected Wed night and Thu except
for some late night or early morning valley fog. Lower conditions
are possible on Friday as warm front and associated lower clouds
and showers move into the area. Mainly VFR is expected on Saturday
except for locally lower conditions in showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Wednesday/...outside of ocnl vsby restrictions
in precipitation and fog...quiet on the waters as seas and winds
should remain below small craft threshold.

Long Term...At this time it appears as though no flags will be
needed Wed night through this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms and moderate to high relative
humidity values will keep fire danger low both today and Wednesday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Pohl




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241320
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
920 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and few embedded thunderstorms will focus
primarily across Western portions of MA and CT this afternoon as
low pressure slowly moves across southeastern New England. An
upper level high pressure ridge will then bring very warm to
borderline hot weather to most of the region Wednesday through
Saturday, except for times of cooler temperatures on the immediate
coast. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night
into Friday, but a better chance exists Saturday afternoon and
evening ahead of the cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

915 am update...

Not much change from previous forecast. Showers and isolated
thunder focused across northern and western MA including western
CT. This convection is on the nose of a short wave trough moving
across the region. On the backside of this feature drier mid level
air is beginning to overspread the area and is supporting more low
top showers and drizzle moving onshore to RI and Eastern MA.

Moving forward into the afternoon...northeast winds and low clouds
will contiue across RI and Eastern MA leading to mist/drizzle and
scattered low top showers. Thus not a washout but damp and dreary.
Farther west into CT and Western-Central MA...away from the
northeast onshore flow low clouds give way to higher ceilings
along with a few breaks of sunshine and scattered showers. All
model guid including the SSEO and NCAR ensembles suggest any
limited instability /250-750 j-kg/ will be confined to Western
portions of CT and MA. This is where showers will be most numerous
this afternoon and early evening along with the risk of a few
thunderstorms. Although NOT expecting any strong storms given lack
of instability and shear.

Cool temps today especially along the coast given northeast
winds...clouds and light precip. Milder inland away from the
onshore flow along with a few breaks of sunshine. Previous
forecast on track so no major changes with this update. Earlier
discussion below.

====================================================================

Bulk of scattered showers with brief heavy rain and were mainly to
the northwest of a Boston to Providence line with the steadiest
of activity in Western MA.

Will see a brief break in the action except for a few showers
lingering through late morning. Then activity looks to start firing
up again later today, with another round of sct showers/isold
thunderstorms develop mainly across W MA and N CT this afternoon,
but not much in Eastern MA/RI given cool stabilizing marine layer.

00Z short range model suite continue to signal the instability
remaining across the region, with total totals up to the lower to
mid 50s /more robust on the NAM/, surface based LIs down to zero
to -2 and K indices to the lower 30s. Also noted CAPES on order
of 400-500 J/kg this afternoon across this area so, along with H5
temps down to -18C to -19C in the core of the cold pool as it
crosses the region, so there is a low risk for isolated small hail
reports in Western MA/Northern CT.

Convection should begin to wane toward sunset, but will linger
across N and W MA into N central CT into the evening.

With the onshore winds continuing, albeit light, temps will only
rise to around 60 along the immediate coast, but look to reach to
the upper 60s to near 70 across the CT valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...

Tonight...

As the H5 upper low and the associated surface reflection continue
to move slowly NE tonight, will see some leftover isolated
showers/thunderstorms into this evening before finally ending.

With light and variable winds in place along with wet ground in
many places, will likely see patchy fog redevelop overnight.
Also, cooler, drier air will not rush in with light pres gradient
in place, so temps will not fall back too far tonight. Expect lows
in the 50-55 degree range.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Highlights...

* Very warm Wed/Thu/Fri with highs well up into the 80s except
  cooler immediate coast at times
* Hot Saturday afternoon w/highs mainly upper 80s to the lower 90s
* A few showers/t-storms possible Thu night/Fri but best chance Sat
  afternoon/evening ahead of cold front
* Turning much cooler Sun and especially Mon along the coast


Details...

Wednesday...Closed upper level low lifts northeast of our region
allowing for rising heights/warmer mid level temps.  More
importantly, surface winds will turn to the west which makes a huge
difference in afternoon high temps this time of year.  Given 850T
between 13c/14c and plenty of late May sunshine, high temps should
be in the mid to upper 80s for most including Boston, as any sea
breezes that develop along the Eastern MA coast will be overcome by
increasing gradient by afternoon.  A few locations may even touch
90. It will be a bit cooler on the south coast/Cape/Islands, but
still should see highs well into the 70s to near 80.

Dry weather will dominate Wednesday, but there is a low risk of a
spot shower/t-storm during the afternoon/early evening across the
interior.  Limiting factors though will be dry mid levels and lack
of low level forcing.

Wednesday night...Other than a low risk for a spot shower/t-storm
across the interior during the evening dry weather is expected
behind a weak cold front. Low temps will only fall back into the 50s
in most locations with 60 to 65 in some of the urban centers.  A
touch of patchy fog may develop in the typically prone locations
toward daybreak.

Thursday...Upper level ridging across the Southeast U.S. continues
to nose into southern New England.  This will result in plenty of
sunshine and with warm mid level temps, highs again should reach
well into the 80s in most locations.  However, gradient will be
weaker allowing for sea breezes to develop on the immediate Eastern
MA coast including Boston by early afternoon. High temps will still
likely reach well up into the 70s to near 80 in this region before
sea breezes develop and temps fall a bit. Should remain dry given
lack of forcing and upper level ridging nosing into this region.

Thursday night and Friday...A shortwave will lift northeast into
northern New England Thu night/Fri.  While the best forcing will to
our north, a few showers/t-storms are possible with the best chance
across western and northern MA.  Certainly not expecting a washout
though and the majority of the Thu night/Fri will be dry.
Still looks like a warm afternoon with temps into the 80s, but it
may be cooler across Northeast MA depending on location of backdoor
cold front.

Saturday...A hot day with westerly flow and 850T near 16c.  This
should yield highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s for most locations.
Dewpoints into the 60s will make it feel somewhat muggy.
Pre-frontal trough ahead of an approaching cold front may trigger
scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly Saturday afternoon and
evening.

Sunday and Monday...High pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will
build south into New England.  So despite rather high height fields,
northeast low level flow will result in much cooler temps Sun and
especially Mon particularly along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

920 am update ... no major changes from 12z TAFs. Lowest
cigs/vsbys will be over RI and Eastern MA along with mist/drizzle
and a few showers. Inland across CT and Western-Central MA
cigs/vsbys in the MVFR range but showers will be more numerous
across this area along with low risk of a few afternoon
thunderstorms. Earlier discussion below.

====================================================================

Today...Moderate confidence.

Mainly IFR conditions along the coastal plain this morning in low
clouds and patchy fog.  These conditions will likely improve to low
end MVFR this afternoon, except for the Cape and Islands. Across the
interior...much of the region will see ceilings lower to MVFR levels
by mid to late morning and these conditions mainly continuing
through the afternoon.

Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms shifting focus to mainly
Western MA and Northern CT by afternoon.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.

Isolated SHRA/TSRA lingers across central and N MA through this
evening, then ending. Patchy fog lingers along E coastal MA with
MVFR-IFR VSBYS, while fog redevelops away from the coast with
areas of MVFR VSBYS. Light/vrbl winds.

KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence. IFR conditions this morning probably
improve to low end MVFR this afternoon.  Scattered showers mainly
northwest of the terminal most of the day.

KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence. Conditions will lower to MVFR this
morning and persist into the afternoon. Scattered showers at times
with a low risk of an embedded t-storm this afternoon/early evening.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday and Thursday...High confidence. VFR conditions other
than a few hours of patchy ground fog possible toward daybreak Thu
in the typically prone locations.

Thursday night and Friday...Moderate confidence.  VFR conditions
likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible in a few
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior.

Saturday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions but brief
MVFR- IFR conditions possible Saturday afternoon/evening in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 12Z...Moderate confidence.

Expect E-NE winds less than 15 kt and seas below 5 ft. Visibility
reductions in showers, widely scattered thunderstorms and patchy
fog. Today...Moderate Confidence.

E-NE winds less than 15 kt. Seas will build up to 5-6 ft across
the outer waters from Cape Cod southward, mainly in S-SE swells
this afternoon. Local visibility restrictions in scattered
showers, isolated thunderstorms and patchy fog. Winds will back
to N during the afternoon. Small crafts have been issued for
portions of the outer waters.

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

N-NW winds as low pressure moves offshore, but remaining light.
E-SE swells will remain at 5-6 ft through around midnight, then
will slowly subside toward daybreak. Small crafts will continue
for portions of the outer waters. May see local visibility
restrictions in patchy fog. Low risk of isolated showers early.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...High Confidence.

Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
the majority of the period with the exception being Wednesday
night. Some brief near shore southwest wind gusts of 20 to 25
knots are likely Wed afternoon...which will result in some choppy
seas. In addition, long southwest fetch may bring a period of 5
foot seas across our southern waters Wednesday night which may
require headlines.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday...High temperatures soaring well into the 80s in most
locations will result in minimum afternoon RH values dropping to
between 20 and 30 percent.  A few hours of westerly wind gusts of 20
to 25 mph are anticipated. Given this morning`s rainfall and
marginal criteria, will probably fall short on the need for fire
weather headlines.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 1 PM this
     afternoon to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 3 PM this
     afternoon to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/EVT
NEAR TERM...Frank/Nocera/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/Nocera/EVT
MARINE...Frank/Nocera/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 241237
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
837 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure surface and aloft will drift northward across the
region today and early tonight. This system will bring unsettled
weather with clouds and scattered showers and thunderstorms. This
weakening system will exit into the Canadian Maritimes tonight.
Warmer weather will return on Wednesday ahead of a cold front. The
cold front will bring clouds and a few showers and thunderstorms
to the area Wednesday afternoon and evening. A ridge of high
pressure will build over the area Wednesday night and will hold
over the region on Thursday as a warm front approaches from the
west. The warm front will stall over the region Thursday night and
Friday and will finally push east of the region on Saturday. A
cold front will cross the region Saturday night followed by high
pressure and dry air to round out the holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
835am...Will make a small update to adjust pops to better reflect
the precipitation over southern New Hampshire. Will also make a
few minor tweaks to temperatures.

644 AM...for this ESTF update I adjusted near term grids to
reflect radar trends and to ingest the latest mesonet.

PREV DISC...
At 06z...low pressure surface and aloft was centered to the south
of Long Island. GOES infrared imagery showed clouds with this system
continued to spread northward into the forecast area. For today...the
system will continue to drift north with lowering ceilings and
showers and a few thunderstorms working into the area as upper low
center moves nearly overhead. Highs will range from lower and mid
70s along the international border and Connecticut valley to lower
60s along the coast in strengthening onshore flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Convection will wind down from southwest to northeast this evening
with partial clearing and areas of fog developing as the system
exits into the maritimes. Lows tonight will range from the mid 40s
to lower 50s. On Wednesday...much warmer ahead of an approaching
shortwave impulse and associated cold front with highs ranging
from the mid 70s to lower 80s...except for some 60s along the
Maine mid coast in onshore flow. A few showers and thunderstorms
will develop by afternoon across northern and mountain sections
with a few cells possibly reaching southern and coastal sections
late in the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Any showers will dissipate or move out of the region early
Wednesday evening in the wake of a cold front. A dry Wednesday
night and Thursday is expected along with warm temperatures.

A warm front approaches from the southwest on Friday with an
attendant chance of showers and thunderstorms. This warm front
looks to move through the region in time for Saturday which should
allow for very warm temperatures away from the coast.

A short wave trough and attendant cold front will quickly
approach from the west Saturday afternoon and should spark another
round of showers and thunderstorms.

Strong Canadian high pressure will then move in from the north in
the wake of the front and clear us out for later Saturday night
and Sunday. A cooler and drier airmass will settle in place on
Sunday. At this time it looks like the high will remain entrenched
over the area to round out the holiday weekend with nice weather
on Monday.

Thereafter, warming temperatures should once again occur as deep
layer ridging builds.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /through Wednesday/...MVFR/IFR ceilings developing
this morning along with a few -shra and -tsra. conditions
gradually improve to vfr tonight with areas of mvfr and lcl ifr
redeveloping late in stratus and fog. bcmg vfr Wed am with sct
mvfr dvlpg during the pm in -shra/-tsra.

Long Term...VFR conditions are expected Wed night and Thu except
for some late night or early morning valley fog. Lower conditions
are possible on Friday as warm front and associated lower clouds
and showers move into the area. Mainly VFR is expected on Saturday
except for locally lower conditions in showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Wednesday/...outside of ocnl vsby restrictions
in precipitation and fog...quiet on the waters as seas and winds
should remain below small craft threshold.

Long Term...At this time it appears as though no flags will be
needed Wed night through this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms and moderate to high relative
humidity values will keep fire danger low both today and Wednesday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Pohl




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241120
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
720 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Scattered showers and few embedded thunderstorms this morning will
focus primarily across Western MA and Northern CT by afternoon as
low pressure slowly moves across southeastern New England. An
upper level high pressure ridge will then bring very warm to
borderline hot weather to most of the region Wednesday through
Saturday, except for times of cooler temperatures on the immediate
coast. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night
into Friday, but a better chance exists Saturday afternoon and
evening ahead of the cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

720 am update...

Bulk of scattered showers with brief heavy rain and were mainly to
the northwest of a Boston to Providence line with the steadiest
of activity in Western MA.

Will see a brief break in the action except for a few showers
lingering through late morning. Then activity looks to start firing
up again later today, with another round of sct showers/isold
thunderstorms develop mainly across W MA and N CT this afternoon,
but not much in Eastern MA/RI given cool stabilizing marine layer.

00Z short range model suite continue to signal the instability
remaining across the region, with total totals up to the lower to
mid 50s /more robust on the NAM/, surface based LIs down to zero
to -2 and K indices to the lower 30s. Also noted CAPES on order
of 400-500 J/kg this afternoon across this area so, along with H5
temps down to -18C to -19C in the core of the cold pool as it
crosses the region, so there is a low risk for isolated small hail
reports in Western MA/Northern CT.

Convection should begin to wane toward sunset, but will linger
across N and W MA into N central CT into the evening.

With the onshore winds continuing, albeit light, temps will only
rise to around 60 along the immediate coast, but look to reach to
the upper 60s to near 70 across the CT valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...

Tonight...

As the H5 upper low and the associated surface reflection continue
to move slowly NE tonight, will see some leftover isolated
showers/thunderstorms into this evening before finally ending.

With light and variable winds in place along with wet ground in
many places, will likely see patchy fog redevelop overnight.
Also, cooler, drier air will not rush in with light pres gradient
in place, so temps will not fall back too far tonight. Expect lows
in the 50-55 degree range.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Highlights...

* Very warm Wed/Thu/Fri with highs well up into the 80s except
  cooler immediate coast at times
* Hot Saturday afternoon w/highs mainly upper 80s to the lower 90s
* A few showers/t-storms possible Thu night/Fri but best chance Sat
  afternoon/evening ahead of cold front
* Turning much cooler Sun and especially Mon along the coast


Details...

Wednesday...Closed upper level low lifts northeast of our region
allowing for rising heights/warmer mid level temps.  More
importantly, surface winds will turn to the west which makes a huge
difference in afternoon high temps this time of year.  Given 850T
between 13c/14c and plenty of late May sunshine, high temps should
be in the mid to upper 80s for most including Boston, as any sea
breezes that develop along the Eastern MA coast will be overcome by
increasing gradient by afternoon.  A few locations may even touch
90. It will be a bit cooler on the south coast/Cape/Islands, but
still should see highs well into the 70s to near 80.

Dry weather will dominate Wednesday, but there is a low risk of a
spot shower/t-storm during the afternoon/early evening across the
interior.  Limiting factors though will be dry mid levels and lack
of low level forcing.

Wednesday night...Other than a low risk for a spot shower/t-storm
across the interior during the evening dry weather is expected
behind a weak cold front. Low temps will only fall back into the 50s
in most locations with 60 to 65 in some of the urban centers.  A
touch of patchy fog may develop in the typically prone locations
toward daybreak.

Thursday...Upper level ridging across the Southeast U.S. continues
to nose into southern New England.  This will result in plenty of
sunshine and with warm mid level temps, highs again should reach
well into the 80s in most locations.  However, gradient will be
weaker allowing for sea breezes to develop on the immediate Eastern
MA coast including Boston by early afternoon. High temps will still
likely reach well up into the 70s to near 80 in this region before
sea breezes develop and temps fall a bit. Should remain dry given
lack of forcing and upper level ridging nosing into this region.

Thursday night and Friday...A shortwave will lift northeast into
northern New England Thu night/Fri.  While the best forcing will to
our north, a few showers/t-storms are possible with the best chance
across western and northern MA.  Certainly not expecting a washout
though and the majority of the Thu night/Fri will be dry.
Still looks like a warm afternoon with temps into the 80s, but it
may be cooler across Northeast MA depending on location of backdoor
cold front.

Saturday...A hot day with westerly flow and 850T near 16c.  This
should yield highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s for most locations.
Dewpoints into the 60s will make it feel somewhat muggy.
Pre-frontal trough ahead of an approaching cold front may trigger
scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly Saturday afternoon and
evening.

Sunday and Monday...High pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will
build south into New England.  So despite rather high height fields,
northeast low level flow will result in much cooler temps Sun and
especially Mon particularly along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...Moderate confidence.

Mainly IFR conditions along the coastal plain this morning in low
clouds and patchy fog.  These conditions will likely improve to low
end MVFR this afternoon, except for the Cape and Islands. Across the
interior...much of the region will see ceilings lower to MVFR levels
by mid to late morning and these conditions mainly continuing
through the afternoon.

Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms shifting focus to mainly
Western MA and Northern CT by afternoon.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.

Isolated SHRA/TSRA lingers across central and N MA through this
evening, then ending. Patchy fog lingers along E coastal MA with
MVFR-IFR VSBYS, while fog redevelops away from the coast with
areas of MVFR VSBYS. Light/vrbl winds.

KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence. IFR conditions this morning probably
improve to low end MVFR this afternoon.  Scattered showers mainly
northwest of the terminal most of the day.

KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence. Conditions will lower to MVFR this
morning and persist into the afternoon. Scattered showers at times
with a low risk of an embedded t-storm this afternoon/early evening.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday and Thursday...High confidence. VFR conditions other
than a few hours of patchy ground fog possible toward daybreak Thu
in the typically prone locations.

Thursday night and Friday...Moderate confidence.  VFR conditions
likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible in a few
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior.

Saturday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions but brief
MVFR- IFR conditions possible Saturday afternoon/evening in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 12Z...Moderate confidence.

Expect E-NE winds less than 15 kt and seas below 5 ft. Visibility
reductions in showers, widely scattered thunderstorms and patchy
fog. Today...Moderate Confidence.

E-NE winds less than 15 kt. Seas will build up to 5-6 ft across
the outer waters from Cape Cod southward, mainly in S-SE swells
this afternoon. Local visibility restrictions in scattered
showers, isolated thunderstorms and patchy fog. Winds will back
to N during the afternoon. Small crafts have been issued for
portions of the outer waters.

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

N-NW winds as low pressure moves offshore, but remaining light.
E-SE swells will remain at 5-6 ft through around midnight, then
will slowly subside toward daybreak. Small crafts will continue
for portions of the outer waters. May see local visibility
restrictions in patchy fog. Low risk of isolated showers early.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...High Confidence.

Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
the majority of the period with the exception being Wednesday
night. Some brief near shore southwest wind gusts of 20 to 25
knots are likely Wed afternoon...which will result in some choppy
seas. In addition, long southwest fetch may bring a period of 5
foot seas across our southern waters Wednesday night which may
require headlines.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Wednesday...High temperatures soaring well into the 80s in most
locations will result in minimum afternoon RH values dropping to
between 20 and 30 percent.  A few hours of westerly wind gusts of 20
to 25 mph are anticipated. Given this morning`s rainfall and
marginal criteria, will probably fall short on the need for fire
weather headlines.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 1 PM this
     afternoon to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 3 PM this
     afternoon to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/Frank
NEAR TERM...Frank/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...EVT/Frank
MARINE...EVT/Frank




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240940
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
540 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and few embedded thunderstorms this morning will
focus primarily across Western MA and Northern CT by afternoon as
low pressure slowly moves across southeastern New England. An
upper level high pressure ridge will then bring very warm to
borderline hot weather to most of the region Wednesday through
Saturday, except for times of cooler temperatures on the immediate
coast. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night
into Friday, but a better chance exists Saturday afternoon and
evening ahead of the cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue to rotate N-NW
across the region at 09Z. Noted several reports of thunderstorms,
including a tree split in two in Acushnet. Will continue to
monitor those.

Band of showers with embedded thunderstorms will shift into S NH
over next couple of hours, while more showers continue to rotate
around upper low across W MA/N CT through mid morning. Good
instability still in place as well with core of H5 cold pool
slowly shifting toward the region, so can not rule out more
isolated convection through mid morning.

Will see a brief break in the action except for a few showers
lingering through mid to late morning. Then convection looks to
start firing up again, with another round of sct showers/isold
thunderstorms develop mainly across W MA and N CT.

00Z short range model suite continue to signal the instability
remaining across the region, with total totals up to the lower to
mid 50s /more robust on the NAM/, surface based LIs down to zero
to -2 and K indices to the lower 30s. Also noted CAPES on order
of 400-500 J/kg this afternoon across this area so, along with H5
temps down to -18C to -19C in the core of the cold pool as it
crosses the region, can not rule out any small hail that could
develop in any thunderstorms.

Convection should begin to wane toward sunset, but will linger
across N and W MA into N central CT into the evening.

With the onshore winds continuing, albeit light, temps will only
rise to around 60 along the immediate coast, but look to reach to
the upper 60s to near 70 across the CT valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...

Tonight...

As the H5 upper low and the associated surface reflection continue
to move slowly NE tonight, will see some leftover isolated
showers/thunderstorms into this evening before finally ending.

With light and variable winds in place along with wet ground in
many places, will likely see patchy fog redevelop overnight.
Also, cooler, drier air will not rush in with light pres gradient
in place, so temps will not fall back too far tonight. Expect lows
in the 50-55 degree range.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights...

* Very warm Wed/Thu/Fri with highs well up into the 80s except
  cooler immediate coast at times
* Hot Saturday afternoon w/highs mainly upper 80s to the lower 90s
* A few showers/t-storms possible Thu night/Fri but best chance Sat
  afternoon/evening ahead of cold front
* Turning much cooler Sun and especially Mon along the coast


Details...

Wednesday...Closed upper level low lifts northeast of our region
allowing for rising heights/warmer mid level temps.  More
importantly, surface winds will turn to the west which makes a huge
difference in afternoon high temps this time of year.  Given 850T
between 13c/14c and plenty of late May sunshine, high temps should
be in the mid to upper 80s for most including Boston, as any sea
breezes that develop along the Eastern MA coast will be overcome by
increasing gradient by afternoon.  It will be a bit cooler on the
south coast/Cape/Islands, but still should see highs well into the
70s to near 80.

Dry weather will dominate Wednesday, but there is a low risk of a
spot shower/t-storm during the afternoon/early evening across the
interior.  Limiting factors though will be dry mid levels and lack
of low level forcing.

Wednesday night...Other than a low risk for a spot shower/t-storm
across the interior during the evening dry weather is expected
behind a weak cold front. Low temps will only fall back into the 50s
in most locations with 60 to 65 in some of the urban centers.  A
touch of patchy fog may develop in the typically prone locations
toward daybreak.

Thursday...Upper level ridging across the Southeast U.S. continues
to nose into southern New England.  This will result in plenty of
sunshine and with warm mid level temps, highs again should reach
well into the 80s in most locations.  However, gradient will be
weaker allowing for sea breezes to develop on the immediate Eastern
MA coast including Boston by early afternoon. High temps will still
likely reach well up into the 70s to near 80 in this region before
sea breezes develop and temps fall a bit. Should remain dry given
lack of forcing and upper level ridging nosing into this region.

Thursday night and Friday...A shortwave will lift northeast into
northern New England Thu night/Fri.  While the best forcing will to
our north, a few showers/t-storms are possible with the best chance
across western and northern MA.  Certainly not expecting a washout
though and the majority of the Thu night/Fri will be dry.
Still looks like a warm afternoon with temps into the 80s, but it
may be cooler across Northeast MA depending on location of backdoor
cold front.

Saturday...A hot day with westerly flow and 850T near 16c.  This
should yield highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s for most locations.
Dewpoints into the 60s will make it feel somewhat muggy.
Pre-frontal trough ahead of an approaching cold front may trigger
scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly Saturday afternoon and
evening.

Sunday and Monday...High pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will
build south into New England.  So despite rather high height fields,
northeast low level flow will result in much cooler temps Sun and
especially Mon particularly along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 12Z...Moderate confidence.

Mainly VFR across central and western areas, except locally MVFR
in any heavier showers and isolated TSRA. Across eastern MA/RI,
MVFR- IFR CIGS/local IFR VSBYS in locally +SHRA and isolated TSRA.
Areas of LIFR across SE MA, Cape Cod and the Islands in -SHRA and
fog.

Today...Moderate confidence.

General MVFR-IFR CIGS through midday, then slow improvement but
may linger through the afternoon along E coastal MA. Areas of
MVFR-IFR VSBY across central and eastern areas should improve by
midday. Isolated TSRA with locally heavy rainfall. Low risk of
small hail across CT valley during the midday and afternoon.
Light E-NE winds back to N-NW during the afternoon.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.

Isolated SHRA/TSRA lingers across central and N MA through this
evening, then ending. Patchy fog lingers along E coastal MA with
MVFR-IFR VSBYS, while fog redevelops away from the coast with
areas of MVFR VSBYS. Light/vrbl winds.

KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence. MVFR CIGS may become briefly IFR
through 13Z-14Z. VFR VSBYS may become locally MVFR in any showers
through mid morning. Low risk for TSRA through 14Z, then again
after 18Z today. CIGS improve to VFR by 22Z. Mainly VFR tonight.
Low chance of MVFR VSBYS in patchy fog after 05Z. Light NE winds
become Light/vrbl tonight.

KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions. Local MVFR
in any showers through the day. Low risk of TSRA. Mainly VFR
tonight, though VSBYS may lower to MVFR in patchy fog after 05Z.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday and Thursday...High confidence. VFR conditions other
than a few hours of patchy ground fog possible toward daybreak Thu
in the typically prone locations.

Thursday night and Friday...Moderate confidence.  VFR conditions
likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible in a few
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior.

Saturday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions but brief
MVFR- IFR conditions possible Saturday afternoon/evening in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 12Z...Moderate confidence.

Expect E-NE winds less than 15 kt and seas below 5 ft. Visibility
reductions in showers, widely scattered thunderstorms and patchy
fog. Today...Moderate Confidence.

E-NE winds less than 15 kt. Seas will build up to 5-6 ft across
the outer waters from Cape Cod southward, mainly in S-SE swells
this afternoon. Local visibility restrictions in scattered
showers, isolated thunderstorms and patchy fog. Winds will back
to N during the afternoon. Small crafts have been issued for
portions of the outer waters.

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

N-NW winds as low pressure moves offshore, but remaining light.
E-SE swells will remain at 5-6 ft through around midnight, then
will slowly subside toward daybreak. Small crafts will continue
for portions of the outer waters. May see local visibility
restrictions in patchy fog. Low risk of isolated showers early.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...High Confidence.

Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
the majority of the period with the exception being Wednesday
night. Some brief near shore southwest wind gusts of 20 to 25
knots are likely Wed afternoon...which will result in some choppy
seas. In addition, long southwest fetch may bring a period of 5
foot seas across our southern waters Wednesday night which may
require headlines.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 1 PM this
     afternoon to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 3 PM this
     afternoon to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/EVT
MARINE...Frank/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240825
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
424 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Scattered showers and few embedded thunderstorms this morning will
focus themselves primarily across Western MA and Northern CT by
afternoon.  An upper level ridge of high pressure will then bring
very warm to borderline hot weather to most of the region Wednesday
through Saturday, except for times of cooler temperatures on the
immediate coast. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible
Thursday night into Friday, but a better chance exists Saturday
afternoon and evening ahead of the cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1110 PM update...

Light showers rotating westward around cutoff H5 low pressure near
or just off the mid Atlc coast reaching the S coast of RI into N
central and NE CT at 03Z. Looks like most of the activity will
remain W of E MA and more of RI, but can not rule out widely sct
showers pretty much across the remainder of the region into the
early morning hours. Then, toward sunrise, will start to see sct
showers pretty much anywhere as weak short wave rotates westward
in the cyclonic upper flow to the south, as well as decreasing
temp/dewpoint spreads especially near the coast. With the onshore
wind, will see low clouds and patchy fog moving in. Would not be
surprised to see some spotty drizzle as well.

18Z GFS and new 00Z NAM both continue to signal increasing
instability, with total totals up to the lower 50s, surface based
LIs down to zero to -2 and K indices to the lower 30s around or
after 09Z. NAM appears too robust considering the lack of
convection into the region, so used a blend of the GFS/NAM with a
bit more weight to the GFS. Noting some CG and in cloud lightning
S of 40N late tonight, but appears this will rotate S of the
region for now. Have kept mention of thunder in the forecast
toward daybreak into Tuesday morning, though went with isolated
wording.

Remainder of forecast in pretty good shape, but have updated to
bring conditions current.

Previous discussion...

Low pressure wobbles N evolving into its dying phase undergoing
occlusion. During this morphology, focus is on the crux of mid-
level vortmax energy and parent weak low-level convergence
rounding W-NW round the low into S coastal New England. Should
see decent low to mid level forcing with some venting aloft, along
the leading edge of which a band of light to moderate rain should
emerge. Also isolated thunderstorms are possible given marginal
instability and weak shear parent to expected lift, but such
activity should be non severe with the main threats being
lightning and locally heavy rain.

A consensus of high-res and mos-guidance performed, confidence is
for a band of activity to pivot NW across S New England settling N
to S across W New England and along the high terrain. This keeps a
good chunk of E/SE MA in chance PoPs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
Tuesday...

Breaking down. Low chokes itself off entraining drier air as it
stacks and undergoes occlusion within its dying phase. The trowaling
and comma shape to the low persists albeit weaker seemingly over W
portions of New England parent with low level convergent flow along
the E slopes of high terrain and forcing per rotating mid-level
vortex energy. But to the E we could see some improvement with
clouds becoming broken and perhaps some hints of sunshine. Thus can
not rule out partial clearing.

PoPs evolving with highest confidence over the Berkshires while
chance-scattered to the E/SE if forecast models are right in the
evolution of drier air wrapping into the system. A lot of wiggle
room and wobble with this system to which the high-res guidance is
not absolutely succinct but has a decent handle on the trend. Will
avoid high PoPs accordingly with the scattered to broken nature of
the low. Thunder does remain a possibility with continued marginal
instability and weak shear. Think isolated chances and will prevail
accordingly.

Cooler day with clouds in abundance and E/NE flow. Highs up into the
60s. An edge warmer to the W as conditions improve late in the day
with winds shifting out of the W/NW.

Tuesday Night...

The end. Low continues to undergo its dying phase choking upon drier
air as it peels off to the E. Comma head over the W sweeps E across
S New England per a consensus of high-res forecast trends, but by
this point the activity is all but scattered. Should see most of the
wet weather by consensus conclude by midnight behind which W/NW flow
prevails. Anticipated clearing and light winds, would expect lows to
drop into the 40s, and considering the recent rains, can not rule
out some dense fog development if conditions are right.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Highlights...

* Very warm Wed/Thu/Fri with highs well up into the 80s except
  cooler immediate coast at times
* Hot Saturday afternoon w/highs mainly upper 80s to the lower 90s
* A few showers/t-storms possible Thu night/Fri but best chance Sat
  afternoon/evening ahead of cold front
* Turning much cooler Sun and especially Mon along the coast


Details...

Wednesday...Closed upper level low lifts northeast of our region
allowing for rising heights/warmer mid level temps.  More
importantly, surface winds will turn to the west which makes a huge
difference in afternoon high temps this time of year.  Given 850T
between 13c/14c and plenty of late May sunshine, high temps should
be in the mid to upper 80s for most including Boston, as any sea
breezes that develop along the Eastern MA coast will be overcome by
increasing gradient by afternoon.  It will be a bit cooler on the
south coast/Cape/Islands, but still should see highs well into the
70s to near 80.

Dry weather will dominate Wednesday, but there is a low risk of a
spot shower/t-storm during the afternoon/early evening across the
interior.  Limiting factors though will be dry mid levels and lack
of low level forcing.

Wednesday night...Other than a low risk for a spot shower/t-storm
across the interior during the evening dry weather is expected
behind a weak cold front. Low temps will only fall back into the 50s
in most locations with 60 to 65 in some of the urban centers.  A
touch of patchy fog may develop in the typically prone locations
toward daybreak.

Thursday...Upper level ridging across the Southeast U.S. continues
to nose into southern New England.  This will result in plenty of
sunshine and with warm mid level temps, highs again should reach
well into the 80s in most locations.  However, gradient will be
weaker allowing for sea breezes to develop on the immediate Eastern
MA coast including Boston by early afternoon. High temps will still
likely reach well up into the 70s to near 80 in this region before
sea breezes develop and temps fall a bit. Should remain dry given
lack of forcing and upper level ridging nosing into this region.

Thursday night and Friday...A shortwave will lift northeast into
northern New England Thu night/Fri.  While the best forcing will to
our north, a few showers/t-storms are possible with the best chance
across western and northern MA.  Certainly not expecting a washout
though and the majority of the Thu night/Fri will be dry.
Still looks like a warm afternoon with temps into the 80s, but it
may be cooler across Northeast MA depending on location of backdoor
cold front.

Saturday...A hot day with westerly flow and 850T near 16c.  This
should yield highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s for most locations.
Dewpoints into the 60s will make it feel somewhat muggy.
Pre-frontal trough ahead of an approaching cold front may trigger
scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly Saturday afternoon and
evening.

Sunday and Monday...High pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will
build south into New England.  So despite rather high height fields,
northeast low level flow will result in much cooler temps Sun and
especially Mon particularly along the coast.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tonight/...

Overnight...Moderate Confidence.

Mainly VFR through 04Z-06Z, except LIFR CIGS/MVFR-IFR VSBYS
moving onshore from Cape Cod to along E coastal Mass. Should see
MVFR- IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS move W to about KORH-KIJD with spotty
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS across the CT valley mainly after 06Z. Scattered
showers with MVFR conditions across N CT/W RI into CT valley.
Isolated thunder possible after 08Z mainly near S coast. Light
E-NE winds.

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

SHRA and chance TSRA continue with greatest confidence over W
terminals. Widespread MVFR/IFR impacts begin to shift E with the
usherance of winds backing out of the W/NW. Gusts of around 15 kts
possible.

Tuesday Night...Moderate confidence.

Continued clearing trend W to E with W/NW winds. Improving to VFR.
It is perhaps at the start of the period that MVFR/IFR will only
linger along the E coast of MA.

KBOS TAF...Sct showers will move across the terminal tonight and
into tomorrow. Low prob for some thunder. VFR will drop to
MVFR/IFR after 06z.

KBDL TAF...Confident the terminal will see a fair share of -RA
beginning around midnight and continuing through much of Tuesday
before clearing out late. Moderate prob for TSRA. MVFR conditions
after 06z.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday and Thursday...High confidence.  VFR conditions other than
a few hours of patchy ground fog possible toward daybreak Thu in the
typically prone locations.

Thursday night and Friday...Moderate confidence.  VFR conditions
likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible in a few
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior.

Saturday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions but brief MVFR-
IFR conditions possible Saturday afternoon/evening in scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Overnight and Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

E-NE winds with gusts up to 15 kt mainly overnight, then
diminishing Tuesday. Seas 4 feet or less. Visibility reductions
in areas of fog moving W from Mass Bay and E of Cape Cod overnight,
local mist as well. Scattered showers along the S coast of RI,
then continue to develop across entire S coast, possibly reaching
to E coastal areas by daybreak. Isolated thunderstorms after 08Z
through mid morning Tuesday possible.

Tuesday Night...Moderate Confidence.

Winds back out of the W/NW with departure of the low. Change in
wind direction against a E/SE swell, could see some wave heights
up to 5 feet on the outer waters requiring small craft advisories.
Aside, rain comes to an end and visibilities improve if they had
not done so during the day Tuesday.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...High Confidence.

Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds the
majority of the period with the exception being Wednesday night.
Some brief near shore southwest wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots are
likely Wed afternoon...which will result in some choppy seas. In
addition, long southwest fetch may bring a period of 5 foot seas
across our southern waters Wednesday night which may require
headlines.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 1 PM this
     afternoon to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 3 PM this
     afternoon to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank
NEAR TERM...Dunten/EVT
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/Sipprell/EVT
MARINE...Frank/Sipprell/EVT




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