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000
FXUS61 KBOX 242349
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
749 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

735 PM UPDATE...
DIURNAL ISOLD SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN AREAS EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DISSIPATED AS SEEN ON LATEST NE REGIONAL 88D
RADAR MOSAIC. REMAINDER OF LOW AND MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS ARE SHIFTING NE AND DISSIPATING VIA
LATEST IR SATELLITE TRENDS.

WILL SEE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE FROM S-N AS WELL AS SHIFT NE
AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE NW-SE ORIENTED UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM
WEST CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH MAINE/N NH TO THE GULF OF MAINE.
SO...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT. COLD
POOL ALOFT ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES /MAINLY
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT/ WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM CONDITIONS TO BRING CONDITIONS AND
INCORPORATED INTO TRENDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS LEFT
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...
LINGERING CLOUD SHIELD UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL...BUT
THIS SHOULD START TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST SOMEWHAT. SO
WE EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE
OVER CONNECTICUT. PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AIR
MOVING...SO FROST IS NOT LIKELY EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE MOST
SHELTERED OF LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR. ON THE OTHER HAND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT OR PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER.
EXPECTED RANGE IS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...AND FREEZING TEMPS IN
PARTS OF THE ACTIVE GROWING ZONE /CT-RI-SOUTHEAST MA/. WE PLAN ON
CONVERTING THE EXISTING FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR
NORTHERN CT AND NORTHWEST RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...UPPER CLOUD SHIELD AND COLD POOL WILL BE FOCUSED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT US. DAYTIME
HEATING AND A SHORTWAVE CYCLING AROUND THE LOW MAY PUSH CLOUDS
BACK OUR WAY DURING THE DAY. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL BE DRIER...SO
MOST ATTEMPTS AT PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVAPORATE ON THE WAY DOWN.
TEMPS AT 850 MB ARE FORECAST AROUND -2C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE 50S. WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED LAYER REACH 20
KNOTS...SO EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTS EITHER SIDE OF 20.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDING CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
30S...SO MIN SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
  WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THU OR FRI

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 WITH FEW CHANGES EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...NOTING SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TOWARD NEXT THU/FRI
WHICH ARE SHOWING UP AT LEAST ON THE LAST COUPLE OF MEDIUM RANGE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT ARE STARTING TO
SIGNAL THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE UPPER TROUGH PATTERN. THE GEFS
AND EC ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO KEEP SLOW PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS...SO
STILL QUITE A BIT OF TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.

NEGATIVE NAO/AO PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE...KEEPING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AND PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS CUTOFF H5 LOW PRES CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN QUEBEC AND THE MARITIMES. MODELS
SIGNALING A STRONGER SHORT WAVE THAT WILL DROP S ACROSS THE REGION
OUT OF EASTERN CANADA IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL DROP ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ENHANCED
N-NE WIND FLOW. ONCE THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES S...THE UPPER SYSTEM
MAY START TO SHIFT E BUT TIMING IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION DUE
TO WIDE MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD BEYOND TUESDAY.

ANOTHER QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS THE POTENTIAL COASTAL SYSTEM
THAT WORKS OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE WED OR THU. THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BLOCKING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHICH MAY
ACTUALLY SHUNT THE COASTAL SYSTEM S OF THE REGION. NOTING A RATHER
STRONG SYSTEM ON THE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH TENDS TO DEVELOP AND SLOW
THE SYSTEM AS IT PASSES S OF NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT OR FRIDAY...
WHILE THE GFS IS A MORE OPEN WAVE BUT STILL PUSHES OFFSHORE. WILL
STILL NEED TO WATCH FUTURE MODEL TRENDS BEFORE WRITING THIS ONE
OFF FOR NOW.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOWED
GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WHILE THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BRING A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS WITH
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WHICH ACTUALLY LOOKS TO SLOWLY SHIFT E LATER
IN THE DAY. SO...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THEN CLOUDS
DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR AND N OF
THE MASS PIKE CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE THAT BEGINS TO SHIFT OUT OF
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY.

EXPECT TEMPS TO TOP OFF MAINLY IN THE 50S...BUT IF A LITTLE MORE
SUN WORKS THROUGH THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER CT VALLEY...READINGS
MAY TOUCH 60 IN A FEW SPOTS.

* MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RATHER POTENT H5 SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR /OF SORTS/
SURFACE REFLECTION ROTATE SW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST ENERGY AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL
PUSH ACROSS MON NIGHT THROUGH INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALSO
SHIFT TO N-NE AND INCREASE. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE
MAINLY ALONG E COASTAL AREAS. MAY SEE SOME APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
WITH QPF OF 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES ALONG THE E COAST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE ONSHORE WIND.

* WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT
MAY MAKE THE TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...12Z MODEL
TRENDS ARE TENDING TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM TO THE S THANKS TO THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MAY PUSH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THIS
THIS WAS A RECENT TREND THOUGH...DID KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FROM
THU AFTERNOON THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF FRIDAY DUE TO THE MODEL/S
HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. TEMPS ARE ALSO
TRYING TO CREEP BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LEFTOVER W-NW WIND GUSTING TO 20
KT THROUGH 02Z-03Z INLAND THEN DIMINISHING.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND
20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WIND.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE
WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS.
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG E COAST.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. N-NE WINDS INCREASE ESPECIALLY ALONG E COAST.
MAY SEE GUSTS TO 20-25 KT FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY S TO CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS MAINLY MON NIGHT AND TUE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHT N-NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH STRONGEST GUSTS
OFFSHORE. SEAS LINGER NEAR 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY AND THEN SUBSIDE. SEAS BELOW 5 FEET ALL OTHER WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING DUE TO SEAS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. SCA ALSO
LINGERS ON RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS TONIGHT MOSTLY DUE TO WINDS
AT OR NEAR 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT NW
WINDS TO SHIFT TO NE BUT REMAIN BELOW 15 KT. SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE
ALONG E COAST.

MONDAY...N-NW WINDS INCREASE BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. SEAS
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS INCREASE...GUSTING
TO 25-30 KT. SEAS BUILD UP TO 5-7 FT...HIGHEST ON THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS DURING TUE. MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR SMALL CRAFT.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS BECOME NW AND DIMINISH. MAY SEE LEFTOVER GUSTS
TO 25 KT EARLY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 242349
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
749 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

735 PM UPDATE...
DIURNAL ISOLD SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN AREAS EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DISSIPATED AS SEEN ON LATEST NE REGIONAL 88D
RADAR MOSAIC. REMAINDER OF LOW AND MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS ARE SHIFTING NE AND DISSIPATING VIA
LATEST IR SATELLITE TRENDS.

WILL SEE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE FROM S-N AS WELL AS SHIFT NE
AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE NW-SE ORIENTED UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM
WEST CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH MAINE/N NH TO THE GULF OF MAINE.
SO...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT. COLD
POOL ALOFT ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES /MAINLY
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT/ WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM CONDITIONS TO BRING CONDITIONS AND
INCORPORATED INTO TRENDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS LEFT
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...
LINGERING CLOUD SHIELD UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL...BUT
THIS SHOULD START TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST SOMEWHAT. SO
WE EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE
OVER CONNECTICUT. PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AIR
MOVING...SO FROST IS NOT LIKELY EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE MOST
SHELTERED OF LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR. ON THE OTHER HAND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT OR PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER.
EXPECTED RANGE IS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...AND FREEZING TEMPS IN
PARTS OF THE ACTIVE GROWING ZONE /CT-RI-SOUTHEAST MA/. WE PLAN ON
CONVERTING THE EXISTING FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR
NORTHERN CT AND NORTHWEST RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...UPPER CLOUD SHIELD AND COLD POOL WILL BE FOCUSED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT US. DAYTIME
HEATING AND A SHORTWAVE CYCLING AROUND THE LOW MAY PUSH CLOUDS
BACK OUR WAY DURING THE DAY. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL BE DRIER...SO
MOST ATTEMPTS AT PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVAPORATE ON THE WAY DOWN.
TEMPS AT 850 MB ARE FORECAST AROUND -2C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE 50S. WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED LAYER REACH 20
KNOTS...SO EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTS EITHER SIDE OF 20.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDING CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
30S...SO MIN SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
  WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THU OR FRI

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 WITH FEW CHANGES EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...NOTING SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TOWARD NEXT THU/FRI
WHICH ARE SHOWING UP AT LEAST ON THE LAST COUPLE OF MEDIUM RANGE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT ARE STARTING TO
SIGNAL THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE UPPER TROUGH PATTERN. THE GEFS
AND EC ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO KEEP SLOW PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS...SO
STILL QUITE A BIT OF TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.

NEGATIVE NAO/AO PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE...KEEPING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AND PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS CUTOFF H5 LOW PRES CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN QUEBEC AND THE MARITIMES. MODELS
SIGNALING A STRONGER SHORT WAVE THAT WILL DROP S ACROSS THE REGION
OUT OF EASTERN CANADA IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL DROP ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ENHANCED
N-NE WIND FLOW. ONCE THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES S...THE UPPER SYSTEM
MAY START TO SHIFT E BUT TIMING IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION DUE
TO WIDE MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD BEYOND TUESDAY.

ANOTHER QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS THE POTENTIAL COASTAL SYSTEM
THAT WORKS OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE WED OR THU. THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BLOCKING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHICH MAY
ACTUALLY SHUNT THE COASTAL SYSTEM S OF THE REGION. NOTING A RATHER
STRONG SYSTEM ON THE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH TENDS TO DEVELOP AND SLOW
THE SYSTEM AS IT PASSES S OF NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT OR FRIDAY...
WHILE THE GFS IS A MORE OPEN WAVE BUT STILL PUSHES OFFSHORE. WILL
STILL NEED TO WATCH FUTURE MODEL TRENDS BEFORE WRITING THIS ONE
OFF FOR NOW.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOWED
GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WHILE THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BRING A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS WITH
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WHICH ACTUALLY LOOKS TO SLOWLY SHIFT E LATER
IN THE DAY. SO...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THEN CLOUDS
DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR AND N OF
THE MASS PIKE CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE THAT BEGINS TO SHIFT OUT OF
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY.

EXPECT TEMPS TO TOP OFF MAINLY IN THE 50S...BUT IF A LITTLE MORE
SUN WORKS THROUGH THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER CT VALLEY...READINGS
MAY TOUCH 60 IN A FEW SPOTS.

* MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RATHER POTENT H5 SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR /OF SORTS/
SURFACE REFLECTION ROTATE SW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST ENERGY AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL
PUSH ACROSS MON NIGHT THROUGH INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALSO
SHIFT TO N-NE AND INCREASE. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE
MAINLY ALONG E COASTAL AREAS. MAY SEE SOME APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
WITH QPF OF 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES ALONG THE E COAST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE ONSHORE WIND.

* WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT
MAY MAKE THE TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...12Z MODEL
TRENDS ARE TENDING TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM TO THE S THANKS TO THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MAY PUSH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THIS
THIS WAS A RECENT TREND THOUGH...DID KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FROM
THU AFTERNOON THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF FRIDAY DUE TO THE MODEL/S
HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. TEMPS ARE ALSO
TRYING TO CREEP BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LEFTOVER W-NW WIND GUSTING TO 20
KT THROUGH 02Z-03Z INLAND THEN DIMINISHING.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND
20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WIND.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE
WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS.
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG E COAST.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. N-NE WINDS INCREASE ESPECIALLY ALONG E COAST.
MAY SEE GUSTS TO 20-25 KT FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY S TO CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS MAINLY MON NIGHT AND TUE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHT N-NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH STRONGEST GUSTS
OFFSHORE. SEAS LINGER NEAR 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY AND THEN SUBSIDE. SEAS BELOW 5 FEET ALL OTHER WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING DUE TO SEAS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. SCA ALSO
LINGERS ON RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS TONIGHT MOSTLY DUE TO WINDS
AT OR NEAR 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT NW
WINDS TO SHIFT TO NE BUT REMAIN BELOW 15 KT. SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE
ALONG E COAST.

MONDAY...N-NW WINDS INCREASE BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. SEAS
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS INCREASE...GUSTING
TO 25-30 KT. SEAS BUILD UP TO 5-7 FT...HIGHEST ON THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS DURING TUE. MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR SMALL CRAFT.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS BECOME NW AND DIMINISH. MAY SEE LEFTOVER GUSTS
TO 25 KT EARLY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KGYX 242238
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
638 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE THE MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WILL PRODUCE COOL
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
638 PM UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED POPS A LITTLE BIT ACROSS THE MAINE
FOOTHILLS AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS FOR THIS EVENING AS
LIGHT SNOW /SOME LIGHT RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS/ CONTINUES TO FALL
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDS FOR THE REST
OF THE REGION. LATER ON TONIGHT ANOTHER SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL
ROTATE SOUTHWARD AROUND THE PART UPPER LOW AND PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS ADJACENT
TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE AREAS MAY PICK UP A FEW MORE INCHES
OF SNOW OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUSLY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE MEANDER OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
WILL SETTLE INTO NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW LIKELY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE THROUGH SOUTHWEST MAINE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WILL
PREVAIL. EXPECT MUCH OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL
NEW HAMPSHIRE TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY MORNING. ANY MORNING SUN WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO DIE OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PUSHES
OFFSHORE. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID
50S SOUTH.

SKIES WILL ONCE AGAIN REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE NORTH WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ELSEWHERE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500 MB DOUBLE BARREL CLOSED LOW WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE NERN
CONUS AND MARITIMES ON SUNDAY...AND WILL GO THROUGH SEVERAL
FUJIWARA WOBBLES AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP US IN COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDS THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH MAXES RUNNING 5-10 F BLO NORMAL THROUGH TUE. ON
WAVE WILL BE PUSHING FROM NE-SW AROUND THE UPPER LOW ON SUN
MORNING...AND THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHRA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY.

MODELS SEEM TO BE AGREE THAT A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE...WHICH
CLOSED OFF OFF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 500MB LOW AND DRAGS IT SWD
OUT OF THE MARITIMES AND INTO ERN ME MON INTO MON NIGHT. THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST TIMEFRAME FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHRA...ALTHOUGH THE GFS/EURO/CMC STILL VARYING BY ABOUT 12 HOURS
OR SO. BY WED...GFS/EURO START TO BUILD SOME RIDGING INTO THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...SO MAY SEE MORE SUN AND SEASONABLY
MILD TEMPS BY THEN. ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS SWD TOWARD THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...AND COULD PRODUCE SOME SHRA AGAIN BY FRI...ALTHOUGH THIS
SYSTEM MAY BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE THRU QUICKLY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...VFR...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHRA SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE PREDOMINANT MVFR...WITH OCCNL IFR MON INTO MON NIGHT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA. SOME MVFR CONDS MAY LINGER INTO TUE...WITH
VFR EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 25 KT GUSTS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...MOSTLY QUIET ON THE WATERS. COULD SE WINDS BRIEFLY
APPROACH SCA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOL WEATHER WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
AND MODERATE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 242238
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
638 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE THE MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WILL PRODUCE COOL
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
638 PM UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED POPS A LITTLE BIT ACROSS THE MAINE
FOOTHILLS AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS FOR THIS EVENING AS
LIGHT SNOW /SOME LIGHT RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS/ CONTINUES TO FALL
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDS FOR THE REST
OF THE REGION. LATER ON TONIGHT ANOTHER SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL
ROTATE SOUTHWARD AROUND THE PART UPPER LOW AND PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS ADJACENT
TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE AREAS MAY PICK UP A FEW MORE INCHES
OF SNOW OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUSLY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE MEANDER OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
WILL SETTLE INTO NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW LIKELY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE THROUGH SOUTHWEST MAINE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WILL
PREVAIL. EXPECT MUCH OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL
NEW HAMPSHIRE TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY MORNING. ANY MORNING SUN WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO DIE OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PUSHES
OFFSHORE. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID
50S SOUTH.

SKIES WILL ONCE AGAIN REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE NORTH WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ELSEWHERE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500 MB DOUBLE BARREL CLOSED LOW WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE NERN
CONUS AND MARITIMES ON SUNDAY...AND WILL GO THROUGH SEVERAL
FUJIWARA WOBBLES AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP US IN COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDS THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH MAXES RUNNING 5-10 F BLO NORMAL THROUGH TUE. ON
WAVE WILL BE PUSHING FROM NE-SW AROUND THE UPPER LOW ON SUN
MORNING...AND THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHRA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY.

MODELS SEEM TO BE AGREE THAT A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE...WHICH
CLOSED OFF OFF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 500MB LOW AND DRAGS IT SWD
OUT OF THE MARITIMES AND INTO ERN ME MON INTO MON NIGHT. THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST TIMEFRAME FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHRA...ALTHOUGH THE GFS/EURO/CMC STILL VARYING BY ABOUT 12 HOURS
OR SO. BY WED...GFS/EURO START TO BUILD SOME RIDGING INTO THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...SO MAY SEE MORE SUN AND SEASONABLY
MILD TEMPS BY THEN. ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS SWD TOWARD THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...AND COULD PRODUCE SOME SHRA AGAIN BY FRI...ALTHOUGH THIS
SYSTEM MAY BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE THRU QUICKLY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...VFR...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHRA SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE PREDOMINANT MVFR...WITH OCCNL IFR MON INTO MON NIGHT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA. SOME MVFR CONDS MAY LINGER INTO TUE...WITH
VFR EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 25 KT GUSTS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...MOSTLY QUIET ON THE WATERS. COULD SE WINDS BRIEFLY
APPROACH SCA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOL WEATHER WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
AND MODERATE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER



000
FXUS61 KBOX 242110
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
510 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 8 PM...
UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL IN PLACE OVER NEW NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW AND
CROSSES NEW ENGLAND TOWARD 00Z. RH FORECAST PROFILES SHOW A LAYER
OF HIGH RH VALUES BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB THROUGH 00Z...ALTHOUGH
VERTICAL MOTION IS SUBSIDENT. WE COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...LINGERING CLOUD SHIELD UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND COLD
POOL...BUT THIS SHOULD START TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST
SOMEWHAT. SO WE EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER CONNECTICUT. PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE AIR MOVING...SO FROST IS NOT LIKELY EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN
THE MOST SHELTERED OF LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR. ON THE OTHER HAND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT OR PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER. EXPECTED RANGE IS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...AND
FREEZING TEMPS IN PARTS OF THE ACTIVE GROWING ZONE /CT-RI-
SOUTHEAST MA/. WE PLAN ON CONVERTING THE EXISTING FREEZE WATCH TO
A FREEZE WARNING FOR NORTHERN CT AND NORTHWEST RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...UPPER CLOUD SHIELD AND COLD POOL WILL BE FOCUSED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT US. DAYTIME
HEATING AND A SHORTWAVE CYCLING AROUND THE LOW MAY PUSH CLOUDS
BACK OUR WAY DURING THE DAY. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL BE DRIER...SO
MOST ATTEMPTS AT PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVAPORATE ON THE WAY DOWN.
TEMPS AT 850 MB ARE FORECAST AROUND -2C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE 50S. WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED LAYER REACH 20
KNOTS...SO EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTS EITHER SIDE OF 20.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDING CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
30S...SO MIN SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
  WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THU OR FRI

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 WITH FEW CHANGES EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...NOTING SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TOWARD NEXT THU/FRI
WHICH ARE SHOWING UP AT LEAST ON THE LAST COUPLE OF MEDIUM RANGE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT ARE STARTING TO
SIGNAL THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE UPPER TROUGH PATTERN. THE GEFS
AND EC ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO KEEP SLOW PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS...SO
STILL QUITE A BIT OF TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.

NEGATIVE NAO/AO PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE...KEEPING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AND PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS CUTOFF H5 LOW PRES CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN QUEBEC AND THE MARITIMES. MODELS
SIGNALING A STRONGER SHORT WAVE THAT WILL DROP S ACROSS THE REGION
OUT OF EASTERN CANADA IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL DROP ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ENHANCED
N-NE WIND FLOW. ONCE THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES S...THE UPPER SYSTEM
MAY START TO SHIFT E BUT TIMING IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION DUE
TO WIDE MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD BEYOND TUESDAY.

ANOTHER QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS THE POTENTIAL COASTAL SYSTEM
THAT WORKS OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE WED OR THU. THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BLOCKING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHICH MAY
ACTUALLY SHUNT THE COASTAL SYSTEM S OF THE REGION. NOTING A RATHER
STRONG SYSTEM ON THE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH TENDS TO DEVELOP AND SLOW
THE SYSTEM AS IT PASSES S OF NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT OR FRIDAY...
WHILE THE GFS IS A MORE OPEN WAVE BUT STILL PUSHES OFFSHORE. WILL
STILL NEED TO WATCH FUTURE MODEL TRENDS BEFORE WRITING THIS ONE
OFF FOR NOW.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOWED
GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WHILE THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BRING A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS WITH
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WHICH ACTUALLY LOOKS TO SLOWLY SHIFT E LATER
IN THE DAY. SO...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THEN CLOUDS
DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR AND N OF
THE MASS PIKE CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE THAT BEGINS TO SHIFT OUT OF
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY.

EXPECT TEMPS TO TOP OFF MAINLY IN THE 50S...BUT IF A LITTLE MORE
SUN WORKS THROUGH THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER CT VALLEY...READINGS
MAY TOUCH 60 IN A FEW SPOTS.

* MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RATHER POTENT H5 SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR /OF SORTS/
SURFACE REFLECTION ROTATE SW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST ENERGY AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL
PUSH ACROSS MON NIGHT THROUGH INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALSO
SHIFT TO N-NE AND INCREASE. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE
MAINLY ALONG E COASTAL AREAS. MAY SEE SOME APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
WITH QPF OF 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES ALONG THE E COAST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE ONSHORE WIND.

* WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT
MAY MAKE THE TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...12Z MODEL
TRENDS ARE TENDING TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM TO THE S THANKS TO THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MAY PUSH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THIS
THIS WAS A RECENT TREND THOUGH...DID KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FROM
THU AFTERNOON THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF FRIDAY DUE TO THE MODEL/S
HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. TEMPS ARE ALSO
TRYING TO CREEP BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
20-22 KNOTS.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR
IN SPOTTY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WIND.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE
WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS.
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG E COAST.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. N-NE WINDS INCREASE ESPECIALLY ALONG E COAST.
MAY SEE GUSTS TO 20-25 KT FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY S TO CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS MAINLY MON NIGHT AND TUE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHT N-NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH STRONGEST GUSTS
OFFSHORE. SEAS LINGER NEAR 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY AND THEN SUBSIDE. SEAS BELOW 5 FEET ALL OTHER WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING DUE TO SEAS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. SCA ALSO
LINGERS ON RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS TONIGHT MOSTLY DUE TO WINDS
AT OR NEAR 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT NW
WINDS TO SHIFT TO NE BUT REMAIN BELOW 15 KT. SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE
ALONG E COAST.

MONDAY...N-NW WINDS INCREASE BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. SEAS
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS INCREASE...GUSTING
TO 25-30 KT. SEAS BUILD UP TO 5-7 FT...HIGHEST ON THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS DURING TUE. MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR SMALL CRAFT.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS BECOME NW AND DIMINISH. MAY SEE LEFTOVER GUSTS
TO 25 KT EARLY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 242110
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
510 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 8 PM...
UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL IN PLACE OVER NEW NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW AND
CROSSES NEW ENGLAND TOWARD 00Z. RH FORECAST PROFILES SHOW A LAYER
OF HIGH RH VALUES BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB THROUGH 00Z...ALTHOUGH
VERTICAL MOTION IS SUBSIDENT. WE COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...LINGERING CLOUD SHIELD UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND COLD
POOL...BUT THIS SHOULD START TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST
SOMEWHAT. SO WE EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER CONNECTICUT. PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE AIR MOVING...SO FROST IS NOT LIKELY EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN
THE MOST SHELTERED OF LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR. ON THE OTHER HAND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT OR PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER. EXPECTED RANGE IS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...AND
FREEZING TEMPS IN PARTS OF THE ACTIVE GROWING ZONE /CT-RI-
SOUTHEAST MA/. WE PLAN ON CONVERTING THE EXISTING FREEZE WATCH TO
A FREEZE WARNING FOR NORTHERN CT AND NORTHWEST RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...UPPER CLOUD SHIELD AND COLD POOL WILL BE FOCUSED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT US. DAYTIME
HEATING AND A SHORTWAVE CYCLING AROUND THE LOW MAY PUSH CLOUDS
BACK OUR WAY DURING THE DAY. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL BE DRIER...SO
MOST ATTEMPTS AT PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVAPORATE ON THE WAY DOWN.
TEMPS AT 850 MB ARE FORECAST AROUND -2C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE 50S. WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED LAYER REACH 20
KNOTS...SO EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTS EITHER SIDE OF 20.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDING CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
30S...SO MIN SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
  WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THU OR FRI

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 WITH FEW CHANGES EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...NOTING SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TOWARD NEXT THU/FRI
WHICH ARE SHOWING UP AT LEAST ON THE LAST COUPLE OF MEDIUM RANGE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT ARE STARTING TO
SIGNAL THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE UPPER TROUGH PATTERN. THE GEFS
AND EC ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO KEEP SLOW PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS...SO
STILL QUITE A BIT OF TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.

NEGATIVE NAO/AO PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE...KEEPING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AND PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS CUTOFF H5 LOW PRES CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN QUEBEC AND THE MARITIMES. MODELS
SIGNALING A STRONGER SHORT WAVE THAT WILL DROP S ACROSS THE REGION
OUT OF EASTERN CANADA IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL DROP ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ENHANCED
N-NE WIND FLOW. ONCE THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES S...THE UPPER SYSTEM
MAY START TO SHIFT E BUT TIMING IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION DUE
TO WIDE MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD BEYOND TUESDAY.

ANOTHER QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS THE POTENTIAL COASTAL SYSTEM
THAT WORKS OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE WED OR THU. THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BLOCKING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHICH MAY
ACTUALLY SHUNT THE COASTAL SYSTEM S OF THE REGION. NOTING A RATHER
STRONG SYSTEM ON THE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH TENDS TO DEVELOP AND SLOW
THE SYSTEM AS IT PASSES S OF NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT OR FRIDAY...
WHILE THE GFS IS A MORE OPEN WAVE BUT STILL PUSHES OFFSHORE. WILL
STILL NEED TO WATCH FUTURE MODEL TRENDS BEFORE WRITING THIS ONE
OFF FOR NOW.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOWED
GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WHILE THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BRING A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS WITH
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WHICH ACTUALLY LOOKS TO SLOWLY SHIFT E LATER
IN THE DAY. SO...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THEN CLOUDS
DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR AND N OF
THE MASS PIKE CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE THAT BEGINS TO SHIFT OUT OF
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY.

EXPECT TEMPS TO TOP OFF MAINLY IN THE 50S...BUT IF A LITTLE MORE
SUN WORKS THROUGH THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER CT VALLEY...READINGS
MAY TOUCH 60 IN A FEW SPOTS.

* MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RATHER POTENT H5 SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR /OF SORTS/
SURFACE REFLECTION ROTATE SW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST ENERGY AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL
PUSH ACROSS MON NIGHT THROUGH INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALSO
SHIFT TO N-NE AND INCREASE. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE
MAINLY ALONG E COASTAL AREAS. MAY SEE SOME APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
WITH QPF OF 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES ALONG THE E COAST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE ONSHORE WIND.

* WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT
MAY MAKE THE TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...12Z MODEL
TRENDS ARE TENDING TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM TO THE S THANKS TO THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MAY PUSH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THIS
THIS WAS A RECENT TREND THOUGH...DID KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FROM
THU AFTERNOON THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF FRIDAY DUE TO THE MODEL/S
HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. TEMPS ARE ALSO
TRYING TO CREEP BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
20-22 KNOTS.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR
IN SPOTTY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WIND.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE
WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS.
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG E COAST.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. N-NE WINDS INCREASE ESPECIALLY ALONG E COAST.
MAY SEE GUSTS TO 20-25 KT FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY S TO CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS MAINLY MON NIGHT AND TUE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHT N-NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH STRONGEST GUSTS
OFFSHORE. SEAS LINGER NEAR 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY AND THEN SUBSIDE. SEAS BELOW 5 FEET ALL OTHER WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING DUE TO SEAS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. SCA ALSO
LINGERS ON RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS TONIGHT MOSTLY DUE TO WINDS
AT OR NEAR 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT NW
WINDS TO SHIFT TO NE BUT REMAIN BELOW 15 KT. SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE
ALONG E COAST.

MONDAY...N-NW WINDS INCREASE BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. SEAS
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS INCREASE...GUSTING
TO 25-30 KT. SEAS BUILD UP TO 5-7 FT...HIGHEST ON THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS DURING TUE. MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR SMALL CRAFT.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS BECOME NW AND DIMINISH. MAY SEE LEFTOVER GUSTS
TO 25 KT EARLY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 241858
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
258 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE THE MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WILL PRODUCE COOL
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE MEANDER OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
WILL SETTLE INTO NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW LIKELY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE THROUGH SOUTHWEST MAINE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WILL
PREVAIL. EXPECT MUCH OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL
NEW HAMPSHIRE TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY MORNING. ANY MORNING SUN WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO DIE OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PUSHES
OFFSHORE. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID
50S SOUTH.

SKIES WILL ONCE AGAIN REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE NORTH WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ELSEWHERE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500 MB DOUBLE BARREL CLOSED LOW WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE NERN
CONUS AND MARITIMES ON SUNDAY...AND WILL GO THROUGH SEVERAL
FUJIWARA WOBBLES AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP US IN COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDS THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH MAXES RUNNING 5-10 F BLO NORMAL THROUGH TUE. ON
WAVE WILL BE PUSHING FROM NE-SW AROUND THE UPPER LOW ON SUN
MORNING...AND THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHRA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY.

MODELS SEEM TO BE AGREE THAT A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE...WHICH
CLOSED OFF OFF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 500MB LOW AND DRAGS IT SWD
OUT OF THE MARITIMES AND INTO ERN ME MON INTO MON NIGHT. THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST TIMEFRAME FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHRA...ALTHOUGH THE GFS/EURO/CMC STILL VARYING BY ABOUT 12 HOURS
OR SO. BY WED...GFS/EURO START TO BUILD SOME RIDGING INTO THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...SO MAY SEE MORE SUN AND SEASONABLY
MILD TEMPS BY THEN. ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS SWD TOWARD THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...AND COULD PRODUCE SOME SHRA AGAIN BY FRI...ALTHOUGH THIS
SYSTEM MAY BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE THRU QUICKLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...VFR...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHRA SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE PREDOMINANT MVFR...WITH OCCNL IFR MON INTO MON NIGHT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA. SOME MVFR CONDS MAY LINGER INTO TUE...WITH
VFR EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...MOSTLY QUIET ON THE WATERS. COULD SE WINDS BRIEFLY
APPROACH SCA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...COOL WEATHER WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
AND  MODERATE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 241858
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
258 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE THE MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WILL PRODUCE COOL
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE MEANDER OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
WILL SETTLE INTO NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW LIKELY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE THROUGH SOUTHWEST MAINE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WILL
PREVAIL. EXPECT MUCH OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL
NEW HAMPSHIRE TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY MORNING. ANY MORNING SUN WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO DIE OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PUSHES
OFFSHORE. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID
50S SOUTH.

SKIES WILL ONCE AGAIN REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE NORTH WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ELSEWHERE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500 MB DOUBLE BARREL CLOSED LOW WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE NERN
CONUS AND MARITIMES ON SUNDAY...AND WILL GO THROUGH SEVERAL
FUJIWARA WOBBLES AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP US IN COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDS THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH MAXES RUNNING 5-10 F BLO NORMAL THROUGH TUE. ON
WAVE WILL BE PUSHING FROM NE-SW AROUND THE UPPER LOW ON SUN
MORNING...AND THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHRA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY.

MODELS SEEM TO BE AGREE THAT A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE...WHICH
CLOSED OFF OFF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 500MB LOW AND DRAGS IT SWD
OUT OF THE MARITIMES AND INTO ERN ME MON INTO MON NIGHT. THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST TIMEFRAME FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHRA...ALTHOUGH THE GFS/EURO/CMC STILL VARYING BY ABOUT 12 HOURS
OR SO. BY WED...GFS/EURO START TO BUILD SOME RIDGING INTO THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...SO MAY SEE MORE SUN AND SEASONABLY
MILD TEMPS BY THEN. ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS SWD TOWARD THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...AND COULD PRODUCE SOME SHRA AGAIN BY FRI...ALTHOUGH THIS
SYSTEM MAY BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE THRU QUICKLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...VFR...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHRA SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE PREDOMINANT MVFR...WITH OCCNL IFR MON INTO MON NIGHT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA. SOME MVFR CONDS MAY LINGER INTO TUE...WITH
VFR EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...MOSTLY QUIET ON THE WATERS. COULD SE WINDS BRIEFLY
APPROACH SCA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...COOL WEATHER WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
AND  MODERATE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241854
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
254 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 8 PM...
UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL IN PLACE OVER NEW NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW AND
CROSSES NEW ENGLAND TOWARD 00Z. RH FORECAST PROFILES SHOW A LAYER
OF HIGH RH VALUES BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB THROUGH 00Z...ALTHOUGH
VERTICAL MOTION IS SUBSIDENT. WE COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...LINGERING CLOUD SHIELD UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND COLD
POOL...BUT THIS SHOULD START TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST
SOMEWHAT. SO WE EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER CONNECTICUT. PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE AIR MOVING...SO FROST IS NOT LIKELY EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN
THE MOST SHELTERED OF LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR. ON THE OTHER HAND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT OR PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER. EXPECTED RANGE IS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...AND
FREEZING TEMPS IN PARTS OF THE ACTIVE GROWING ZONE /CT-RI-
SOUTHEAST MA/. WE PLAN ON CONVERTING THE EXISTING FREEZE WATCH TO
A FREEZE WARNING FOR NORTHERN CT AND NORTHWEST RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...UPPER CLOUD SHIELD AND COLD POOL WILL BE FOCUSSED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT US. DAYTIME
HEATING AND A SHORTWAVE CYCLING AROUND THE LOW MAY PUSH CLOUDS
BACK OUR WAY DURING THE DAY. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL BE DRIER...SO
MOST ATTEMPTS AT PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVAPORATE ON THE WAY DOWN.
TEMPS AT 850 MB ARE FORECAST AROUND -2C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE 50S. WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED LAYER REACH 20
KNOTS...SO EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTS EITHER SIDE OF 20.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDING CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
30S...SO MIN SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO GRADUALLY PIVOT EAST
OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA ON SAT BUT THEN BECOMES NOTABLY ELONGATED BY
SUN AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE
00Z GEM IS THE WEAKEST SOLUTION WHILE THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM/00Z UKMET
AND 00Z ECMWF ARE ALL BETTER CLUSTERED WITH DEPTH AND TIMING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

BY NEXT WEEK APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY -NAO/-AO/+PNA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUED COLD POOL WILL KEEP ON SPINNING OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND BEGIN TO EXIT LATE TUESDAY. STILL LOTS OF
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE MIGRATION OF THE DESERT CUTOFF LOW AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND ITS POTENTIAL WRAP UP INTO ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW FOR NEW ENGLAND. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION
WILL BE THE INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND WHERE THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF
SYSTEM. CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS PHASES THE SOUTHERN PLAIN WAVE FASTER
THAN THE EC WHICH IS MORE AMPLIFIED. THE EC/S NORTHERN STREAM IS
FARTHER EASTWARD THAN THE GFS...IN WHICH THE EC SEEMS TO PULL A
COASTAL LOW CLOSER TO THE REGION BY THUS/FRI. REGARDLESS APPEARS
THAT A COASTAL LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE REGION LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK. FELT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW
MIGRATES BACK TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS MAY REACH 60F AS COLD POOL IS STILL
OFFSHORE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS 2 POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH. COLD
POOL ALOFT SEEMS TO SIT OVER THE REGION AS WELL. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE
STEEPER AND SOME HINTS OF INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS ESP ALONG THE
MASS COASTLINE WHERE FORCING COULD OCCUR IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY THANKS
TO THE STRONG COLD POOL OVER THE REGION.


* WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A
TRANSITION DAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BUT
KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE SHOWN THE COASTAL
LOW THIS TIME AROUND...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IT WILL
OCCUR. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND FASTER COMPARED TO THE EC...REGARDLESS WET
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
20-22 KNOTS.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR
IN SPOTTY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WIND.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH STRONGEST GUSTS
OFFSHORE. SEAS LINGER NEAR 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY AND THEN SUBSIDE. SEAS BELOW 5 FEET ALL OTHER WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING DUE TO SEAS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. SCA ALSO
LINGERS ON RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS TONIGHT MOSTLY DUE TO WINDS
AT OR NEAR 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THOUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WIND AND
SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT COLD POOL WILL FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241854
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
254 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 8 PM...
UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL IN PLACE OVER NEW NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW AND
CROSSES NEW ENGLAND TOWARD 00Z. RH FORECAST PROFILES SHOW A LAYER
OF HIGH RH VALUES BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB THROUGH 00Z...ALTHOUGH
VERTICAL MOTION IS SUBSIDENT. WE COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...LINGERING CLOUD SHIELD UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND COLD
POOL...BUT THIS SHOULD START TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST
SOMEWHAT. SO WE EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER CONNECTICUT. PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE AIR MOVING...SO FROST IS NOT LIKELY EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN
THE MOST SHELTERED OF LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR. ON THE OTHER HAND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT OR PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER. EXPECTED RANGE IS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...AND
FREEZING TEMPS IN PARTS OF THE ACTIVE GROWING ZONE /CT-RI-
SOUTHEAST MA/. WE PLAN ON CONVERTING THE EXISTING FREEZE WATCH TO
A FREEZE WARNING FOR NORTHERN CT AND NORTHWEST RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...UPPER CLOUD SHIELD AND COLD POOL WILL BE FOCUSSED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT US. DAYTIME
HEATING AND A SHORTWAVE CYCLING AROUND THE LOW MAY PUSH CLOUDS
BACK OUR WAY DURING THE DAY. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL BE DRIER...SO
MOST ATTEMPTS AT PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVAPORATE ON THE WAY DOWN.
TEMPS AT 850 MB ARE FORECAST AROUND -2C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE 50S. WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED LAYER REACH 20
KNOTS...SO EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTS EITHER SIDE OF 20.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDING CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
30S...SO MIN SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO GRADUALLY PIVOT EAST
OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA ON SAT BUT THEN BECOMES NOTABLY ELONGATED BY
SUN AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE
00Z GEM IS THE WEAKEST SOLUTION WHILE THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM/00Z UKMET
AND 00Z ECMWF ARE ALL BETTER CLUSTERED WITH DEPTH AND TIMING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

BY NEXT WEEK APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY -NAO/-AO/+PNA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUED COLD POOL WILL KEEP ON SPINNING OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND BEGIN TO EXIT LATE TUESDAY. STILL LOTS OF
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE MIGRATION OF THE DESERT CUTOFF LOW AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND ITS POTENTIAL WRAP UP INTO ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW FOR NEW ENGLAND. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION
WILL BE THE INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND WHERE THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF
SYSTEM. CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS PHASES THE SOUTHERN PLAIN WAVE FASTER
THAN THE EC WHICH IS MORE AMPLIFIED. THE EC/S NORTHERN STREAM IS
FARTHER EASTWARD THAN THE GFS...IN WHICH THE EC SEEMS TO PULL A
COASTAL LOW CLOSER TO THE REGION BY THUS/FRI. REGARDLESS APPEARS
THAT A COASTAL LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE REGION LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK. FELT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW
MIGRATES BACK TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS MAY REACH 60F AS COLD POOL IS STILL
OFFSHORE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS 2 POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH. COLD
POOL ALOFT SEEMS TO SIT OVER THE REGION AS WELL. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE
STEEPER AND SOME HINTS OF INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS ESP ALONG THE
MASS COASTLINE WHERE FORCING COULD OCCUR IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY THANKS
TO THE STRONG COLD POOL OVER THE REGION.


* WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A
TRANSITION DAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BUT
KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE SHOWN THE COASTAL
LOW THIS TIME AROUND...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IT WILL
OCCUR. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND FASTER COMPARED TO THE EC...REGARDLESS WET
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
20-22 KNOTS.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR
IN SPOTTY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WIND.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH STRONGEST GUSTS
OFFSHORE. SEAS LINGER NEAR 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY AND THEN SUBSIDE. SEAS BELOW 5 FEET ALL OTHER WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING DUE TO SEAS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. SCA ALSO
LINGERS ON RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS TONIGHT MOSTLY DUE TO WINDS
AT OR NEAR 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THOUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WIND AND
SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT COLD POOL WILL FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 241800
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
200 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THROUGH 8 PM...
UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL IN PLACE OVER NEW NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW AND
CROSSES NEW ENGLAND TOWARD 00Z. RH FORECAST PROFILES SHOW A LAYER
OF HIGH RH VALUES BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB THROUGH 00Z...ALTHOUGH
VERTICAL MOTION IS SUBSIDENT. WE COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...LINGERING CLOUD SHIELD UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND COLD
POOL...BUT THIS SHOULD START TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST
SOMEWHAT. SO WE EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER CONNECTICUT. PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE AIR MOVING...SO FROST IS NOT LIKELY EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN
THE MOST SHELTERED OF LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR. ON THE OTHER HAND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT OR PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER. EXPECTED RANGE IS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...AND
FREEZING TEMPS IN PARTS OF THE ACTIVE GROWING ZONE /CT-RI-
SOUTHEAST MA/. WE PLAN ON CONVERTING THE EXISTING FREEZE WATCH TO
A FREEZE WARNING FOR NORTHERN CT AND NORTHWEST RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...UPPER CLOUD SHIELD AND COLD POOL WILL BE FOCUSSED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT US. DAYTIME
HEATING AND A SHORTWAVE CYCLING AROUND THE LOW MAY PUSH CLOUDS
BACK OUR WAY DURING THE DAY. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL BE DRIER...SO
MOST ATTEMPTS AT PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVAPORATE ON THE WAY DOWN.
TEMPS AT 850 MB ARE FORECAST AROUND -2C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE 50S. WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED LAYER REACH 20
KNOTS...SO EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTS EITHER SIDE OF 20.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDING CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
30S...SO MIN SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO GRADUALLY PIVOT EAST
OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA ON SAT BUT THEN BECOMES NOTABLY ELONGATED BY
SUN AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE
00Z GEM IS THE WEAKEST SOLUTION WHILE THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM/00Z UKMET
AND 00Z ECMWF ARE ALL BETTER CLUSTERED WITH DEPTH AND TIMING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

BY NEXT WEEK APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY -NAO/-AO/+PNA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUED COLD POOL WILL KEEP ON SPINNING OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND BEGIN TO EXIT LATE TUESDAY. STILL LOTS OF
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE MIGRATION OF THE DESERT CUTOFF LOW AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND ITS POTENTIAL WRAP UP INTO ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW FOR NEW ENGLAND. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION
WILL BE THE INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND WHERE THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF
SYSTEM. CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS PHASES THE SOUTHERN PLAIN WAVE FASTER
THAN THE EC WHICH IS MORE AMPLIFIED. THE EC/S NORTHERN STREAM IS
FARTHER EASTWARD THAN THE GFS...IN WHICH THE EC SEEMS TO PULL A
COASTAL LOW CLOSER TO THE REGION BY THUS/FRI. REGARDLESS APPEARS
THAT A COASTAL LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE REGION LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK. FELT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW
MIGRATES BACK TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS MAY REACH 60F AS COLD POOL IS STILL
OFFSHORE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS 2 POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH. COLD
POOL ALOFT SEEMS TO SIT OVER THE REGION AS WELL. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE
STEEPER AND SOME HINTS OF INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS ESP ALONG THE
MASS COASTLINE WHERE FORCING COULD OCCUR IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY THANKS
TO THE STRONG COLD POOL OVER THE REGION.


* WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A
TRANSITION DAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BUT
KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE SHOWN THE COASTAL
LOW THIS TIME AROUND...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IT WILL
OCCUR. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND FASTER COMPARED TO THE EC...REGARDLESS WET
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
20-22 KNOTS.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR
IN SPOTTY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WIND.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE.

1000 AM UPDATE...WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST AT OR ABOVE 25KTS ACROSS
SOME OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO CONTINUE
UNTIL AROUND NOON...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THAT TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT.
SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER
WATERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT MET. THOUGHT IT BEST TO KEEP SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING CONSISTENTLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS...RATHER THAN TAKING THEM DOWN...ONLY TO HAVE TO HOIST THEM
AGAIN LATER.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THOUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WIND AND
SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT COLD POOL WILL FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241800
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
200 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THROUGH 8 PM...
UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL IN PLACE OVER NEW NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW AND
CROSSES NEW ENGLAND TOWARD 00Z. RH FORECAST PROFILES SHOW A LAYER
OF HIGH RH VALUES BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB THROUGH 00Z...ALTHOUGH
VERTICAL MOTION IS SUBSIDENT. WE COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...LINGERING CLOUD SHIELD UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND COLD
POOL...BUT THIS SHOULD START TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST
SOMEWHAT. SO WE EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER CONNECTICUT. PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE AIR MOVING...SO FROST IS NOT LIKELY EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN
THE MOST SHELTERED OF LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR. ON THE OTHER HAND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT OR PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER. EXPECTED RANGE IS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...AND
FREEZING TEMPS IN PARTS OF THE ACTIVE GROWING ZONE /CT-RI-
SOUTHEAST MA/. WE PLAN ON CONVERTING THE EXISTING FREEZE WATCH TO
A FREEZE WARNING FOR NORTHERN CT AND NORTHWEST RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...UPPER CLOUD SHIELD AND COLD POOL WILL BE FOCUSSED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT US. DAYTIME
HEATING AND A SHORTWAVE CYCLING AROUND THE LOW MAY PUSH CLOUDS
BACK OUR WAY DURING THE DAY. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL BE DRIER...SO
MOST ATTEMPTS AT PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVAPORATE ON THE WAY DOWN.
TEMPS AT 850 MB ARE FORECAST AROUND -2C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE 50S. WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED LAYER REACH 20
KNOTS...SO EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTS EITHER SIDE OF 20.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDING CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
30S...SO MIN SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO GRADUALLY PIVOT EAST
OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA ON SAT BUT THEN BECOMES NOTABLY ELONGATED BY
SUN AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE
00Z GEM IS THE WEAKEST SOLUTION WHILE THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM/00Z UKMET
AND 00Z ECMWF ARE ALL BETTER CLUSTERED WITH DEPTH AND TIMING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

BY NEXT WEEK APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY -NAO/-AO/+PNA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUED COLD POOL WILL KEEP ON SPINNING OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND BEGIN TO EXIT LATE TUESDAY. STILL LOTS OF
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE MIGRATION OF THE DESERT CUTOFF LOW AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND ITS POTENTIAL WRAP UP INTO ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW FOR NEW ENGLAND. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION
WILL BE THE INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND WHERE THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF
SYSTEM. CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS PHASES THE SOUTHERN PLAIN WAVE FASTER
THAN THE EC WHICH IS MORE AMPLIFIED. THE EC/S NORTHERN STREAM IS
FARTHER EASTWARD THAN THE GFS...IN WHICH THE EC SEEMS TO PULL A
COASTAL LOW CLOSER TO THE REGION BY THUS/FRI. REGARDLESS APPEARS
THAT A COASTAL LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE REGION LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK. FELT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW
MIGRATES BACK TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS MAY REACH 60F AS COLD POOL IS STILL
OFFSHORE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS 2 POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH. COLD
POOL ALOFT SEEMS TO SIT OVER THE REGION AS WELL. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE
STEEPER AND SOME HINTS OF INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS ESP ALONG THE
MASS COASTLINE WHERE FORCING COULD OCCUR IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY THANKS
TO THE STRONG COLD POOL OVER THE REGION.


* WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A
TRANSITION DAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BUT
KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE SHOWN THE COASTAL
LOW THIS TIME AROUND...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IT WILL
OCCUR. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND FASTER COMPARED TO THE EC...REGARDLESS WET
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
20-22 KNOTS.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR
IN SPOTTY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WIND.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE.

1000 AM UPDATE...WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST AT OR ABOVE 25KTS ACROSS
SOME OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO CONTINUE
UNTIL AROUND NOON...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THAT TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT.
SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER
WATERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT MET. THOUGHT IT BEST TO KEEP SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING CONSISTENTLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS...RATHER THAN TAKING THEM DOWN...ONLY TO HAVE TO HOIST THEM
AGAIN LATER.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THOUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WIND AND
SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT COLD POOL WILL FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN/NMB



000
FXUS61 KGYX 241529
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1129 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE NORTHEAST AND
MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND PROVIDING COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORNINGS WILL SEE MORE
SUNSHINE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING MOST AFTERNOONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY.

&&
15Z UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST SKY AND POPS GRIDS ALONG WITH A FEW TEMP
TWEAKS. DOWNSLOPING PROVIDING SOME SUNNY BREAKS IN THE USUAL
LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BE THE TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH HAS PRETTY MUCH DRIED UP AND NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE PRIMARY
UPPER LOW. THESE WILL DISSIPATE AS THE MORNING GOES ON. DO NOT
EXPECT AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY DUE
TO A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME SHOWERS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE PARENT LOW
TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD MORE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS.
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 20S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 30S ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY
BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY EVEN OVER
COASTAL AREAS. ANY SHOWERS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GRAUPEL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER... IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ALLOWING THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER OR JUST TO THE EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK PRODUCING A COOL UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY WILL BE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING THE
LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. ALSO, SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD
CYCLONIC SYSTEM BUT TIMING OF ANY OF THESE WILL BE VERY TOUGH.
WILL BROAD BRUSH THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THERE IS SOME HOPE THAT THE UPPER
LOW FINALLY GETS KICKED FURTHER EAST ALLOWING A BRIEF REPRIEVE BY
WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGING TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE FOR THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR AND SHOWERS
PRIMARILY TONIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PROVIDES FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
AND CALMING SEAS.

LONG TERM...THE WATERS REMAIN QUIET THROUGH MONDAY...AS WEAK
SURFACE LOW MEANDERS AROUND NEAR THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH NO WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS ARE
EXPECTED... COOL TEMPERATURES AND OFF AND ON SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP
FUELS DAMP FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 241529
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1129 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE NORTHEAST AND
MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND PROVIDING COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORNINGS WILL SEE MORE
SUNSHINE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING MOST AFTERNOONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY.

&&
15Z UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST SKY AND POPS GRIDS ALONG WITH A FEW TEMP
TWEAKS. DOWNSLOPING PROVIDING SOME SUNNY BREAKS IN THE USUAL
LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BE THE TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH HAS PRETTY MUCH DRIED UP AND NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE PRIMARY
UPPER LOW. THESE WILL DISSIPATE AS THE MORNING GOES ON. DO NOT
EXPECT AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY DUE
TO A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME SHOWERS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE PARENT LOW
TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD MORE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS.
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 20S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 30S ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY
BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY EVEN OVER
COASTAL AREAS. ANY SHOWERS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GRAUPEL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER... IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ALLOWING THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER OR JUST TO THE EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK PRODUCING A COOL UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY WILL BE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING THE
LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. ALSO, SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD
CYCLONIC SYSTEM BUT TIMING OF ANY OF THESE WILL BE VERY TOUGH.
WILL BROAD BRUSH THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THERE IS SOME HOPE THAT THE UPPER
LOW FINALLY GETS KICKED FURTHER EAST ALLOWING A BRIEF REPRIEVE BY
WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGING TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE FOR THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR AND SHOWERS
PRIMARILY TONIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PROVIDES FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
AND CALMING SEAS.

LONG TERM...THE WATERS REMAIN QUIET THROUGH MONDAY...AS WEAK
SURFACE LOW MEANDERS AROUND NEAR THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH NO WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS ARE
EXPECTED... COOL TEMPERATURES AND OFF AND ON SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP
FUELS DAMP FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 241529
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1129 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE NORTHEAST AND
MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND PROVIDING COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORNINGS WILL SEE MORE
SUNSHINE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING MOST AFTERNOONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY.

&&
15Z UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST SKY AND POPS GRIDS ALONG WITH A FEW TEMP
TWEAKS. DOWNSLOPING PROVIDING SOME SUNNY BREAKS IN THE USUAL
LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BE THE TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH HAS PRETTY MUCH DRIED UP AND NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE PRIMARY
UPPER LOW. THESE WILL DISSIPATE AS THE MORNING GOES ON. DO NOT
EXPECT AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY DUE
TO A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME SHOWERS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE PARENT LOW
TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD MORE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS.
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 20S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 30S ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY
BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY EVEN OVER
COASTAL AREAS. ANY SHOWERS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GRAUPEL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER... IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ALLOWING THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER OR JUST TO THE EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK PRODUCING A COOL UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY WILL BE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING THE
LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. ALSO, SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD
CYCLONIC SYSTEM BUT TIMING OF ANY OF THESE WILL BE VERY TOUGH.
WILL BROAD BRUSH THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THERE IS SOME HOPE THAT THE UPPER
LOW FINALLY GETS KICKED FURTHER EAST ALLOWING A BRIEF REPRIEVE BY
WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGING TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE FOR THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR AND SHOWERS
PRIMARILY TONIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PROVIDES FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
AND CALMING SEAS.

LONG TERM...THE WATERS REMAIN QUIET THROUGH MONDAY...AS WEAK
SURFACE LOW MEANDERS AROUND NEAR THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH NO WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS ARE
EXPECTED... COOL TEMPERATURES AND OFF AND ON SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP
FUELS DAMP FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 241529
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1129 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE NORTHEAST AND
MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND PROVIDING COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORNINGS WILL SEE MORE
SUNSHINE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING MOST AFTERNOONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY.

&&
15Z UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST SKY AND POPS GRIDS ALONG WITH A FEW TEMP
TWEAKS. DOWNSLOPING PROVIDING SOME SUNNY BREAKS IN THE USUAL
LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BE THE TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH HAS PRETTY MUCH DRIED UP AND NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE PRIMARY
UPPER LOW. THESE WILL DISSIPATE AS THE MORNING GOES ON. DO NOT
EXPECT AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY DUE
TO A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME SHOWERS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE PARENT LOW
TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD MORE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS.
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 20S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 30S ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY
BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY EVEN OVER
COASTAL AREAS. ANY SHOWERS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GRAUPEL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER... IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ALLOWING THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER OR JUST TO THE EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK PRODUCING A COOL UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY WILL BE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING THE
LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. ALSO, SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD
CYCLONIC SYSTEM BUT TIMING OF ANY OF THESE WILL BE VERY TOUGH.
WILL BROAD BRUSH THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THERE IS SOME HOPE THAT THE UPPER
LOW FINALLY GETS KICKED FURTHER EAST ALLOWING A BRIEF REPRIEVE BY
WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGING TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE FOR THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR AND SHOWERS
PRIMARILY TONIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PROVIDES FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
AND CALMING SEAS.

LONG TERM...THE WATERS REMAIN QUIET THROUGH MONDAY...AS WEAK
SURFACE LOW MEANDERS AROUND NEAR THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH NO WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS ARE
EXPECTED... COOL TEMPERATURES AND OFF AND ON SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP
FUELS DAMP FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 241529
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1129 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE NORTHEAST AND
MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND PROVIDING COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORNINGS WILL SEE MORE
SUNSHINE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING MOST AFTERNOONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY.

&&
15Z UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST SKY AND POPS GRIDS ALONG WITH A FEW TEMP
TWEAKS. DOWNSLOPING PROVIDING SOME SUNNY BREAKS IN THE USUAL
LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BE THE TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH HAS PRETTY MUCH DRIED UP AND NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE PRIMARY
UPPER LOW. THESE WILL DISSIPATE AS THE MORNING GOES ON. DO NOT
EXPECT AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY DUE
TO A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME SHOWERS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE PARENT LOW
TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD MORE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS.
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 20S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 30S ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY
BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY EVEN OVER
COASTAL AREAS. ANY SHOWERS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GRAUPEL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER... IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ALLOWING THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER OR JUST TO THE EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK PRODUCING A COOL UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY WILL BE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING THE
LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. ALSO, SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD
CYCLONIC SYSTEM BUT TIMING OF ANY OF THESE WILL BE VERY TOUGH.
WILL BROAD BRUSH THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THERE IS SOME HOPE THAT THE UPPER
LOW FINALLY GETS KICKED FURTHER EAST ALLOWING A BRIEF REPRIEVE BY
WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGING TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE FOR THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR AND SHOWERS
PRIMARILY TONIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PROVIDES FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
AND CALMING SEAS.

LONG TERM...THE WATERS REMAIN QUIET THROUGH MONDAY...AS WEAK
SURFACE LOW MEANDERS AROUND NEAR THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH NO WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS ARE
EXPECTED... COOL TEMPERATURES AND OFF AND ON SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP
FUELS DAMP FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241412
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1012 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1000 AM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY PULLED AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT STILL A CHANCE THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WOULD BRIEFLY PASS THRU THE MA NORTH SHORE BEFORE NOON. ALSO
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH A VERY LOW
CHANCE THAT SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO EXTREME
WESTERN FRANKLIN/HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY
WITH UPPER LOW IN OUR VICINITY. WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN TEMPS
STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...EXCEPT LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL/WESTERN MA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO THOSE WE SAW YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THE COLD
POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT
CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT FOR A
TIME. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING. ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT...AS CLEARER SKIES
COULD LEAD TO MORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS RETURN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CYCLES BACK
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO GRADUALLY PIVOT EAST
OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA ON SAT BUT THEN BECOMES NOTABLY ELONGATED BY
SUN AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE
00Z GEM IS THE WEAKEST SOLUTION WHILE THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM/00Z UKMET
AND 00Z ECMWF ARE ALL BETTER CLUSTERED WITH DEPTH AND TIMING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

BY NEXT WEEK APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY -NAO/-AO/+PNA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUED COLD POOL WILL KEEP ON SPINNING OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND BEGIN TO EXIT LATE TUESDAY. STILL LOTS OF
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE MIGRATION OF THE DESERT CUTOFF LOW AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND ITS POTENTIAL WRAP UP INTO ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW FOR NEW ENGLAND. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION
WILL BE THE INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND WHERE THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF
SYSTEM. CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS PHASES THE SOUTHERN PLAIN WAVE FASTER
THAN THE EC WHICH IS MORE AMPLIFIED. THE EC/S NORTHERN STREAM IS
FARTHER EASTWARD THAN THE GFS...IN WHICH THE EC SEEMS TO PULL A
COASTAL LOW CLOSER TO THE REGION BY THUS/FRI. REGARDLESS APPEARS
THAT A COASTAL LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE REGION LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK. FELT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW
MIGRATES BACK TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS MAY REACH 60F AS COLD POOL IS STILL
OFFSHORE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS 2 POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH. COLD
POOL ALOFT SEEMS TO SIT OVER THE REGION AS WELL. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE
STEEPER AND SOME HINTS OF INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS ESP ALONG THE
MASS COASTLINE WHERE FORCING COULD OCCUR IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY THANKS
TO THE STRONG COLD POOL OVER THE REGION.


* WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A
TRANSITION DAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BUT
KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE SHOWN THE COASTAL
LOW THIS TIME AROUND...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IT WILL
OCCUR. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND FASTER COMPARED TO THE EC...REGARDLESS WET
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORE SPOTTY MVFR IN
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE.

1000 AM UPDATE...WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST AT OR ABOVE 25KTS ACROSS
SOME OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO CONTINUE
UNTIL AROUND NOON...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THAT TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT.
SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER
WATERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT MET. THOUGHT IT BEST TO KEEP SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING CONSISTENTLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS...RATHER THAN TAKING THEM DOWN...ONLY TO HAVE TO HOIST THEM
AGAIN LATER.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THOUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WIND AND
SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT COLD POOL WILL FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE CONNECTICUT RIVER NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE
ITS FLOOD STAGE ONE LAST TIME WITH THE HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.
FURTHER HIGH TIDE CRESTS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/NMB
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN/NMB
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241412
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1012 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1000 AM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY PULLED AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT STILL A CHANCE THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WOULD BRIEFLY PASS THRU THE MA NORTH SHORE BEFORE NOON. ALSO
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH A VERY LOW
CHANCE THAT SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO EXTREME
WESTERN FRANKLIN/HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY
WITH UPPER LOW IN OUR VICINITY. WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN TEMPS
STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...EXCEPT LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL/WESTERN MA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO THOSE WE SAW YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THE COLD
POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT
CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT FOR A
TIME. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING. ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT...AS CLEARER SKIES
COULD LEAD TO MORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS RETURN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CYCLES BACK
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO GRADUALLY PIVOT EAST
OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA ON SAT BUT THEN BECOMES NOTABLY ELONGATED BY
SUN AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE
00Z GEM IS THE WEAKEST SOLUTION WHILE THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM/00Z UKMET
AND 00Z ECMWF ARE ALL BETTER CLUSTERED WITH DEPTH AND TIMING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

BY NEXT WEEK APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY -NAO/-AO/+PNA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUED COLD POOL WILL KEEP ON SPINNING OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND BEGIN TO EXIT LATE TUESDAY. STILL LOTS OF
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE MIGRATION OF THE DESERT CUTOFF LOW AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND ITS POTENTIAL WRAP UP INTO ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW FOR NEW ENGLAND. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION
WILL BE THE INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND WHERE THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF
SYSTEM. CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS PHASES THE SOUTHERN PLAIN WAVE FASTER
THAN THE EC WHICH IS MORE AMPLIFIED. THE EC/S NORTHERN STREAM IS
FARTHER EASTWARD THAN THE GFS...IN WHICH THE EC SEEMS TO PULL A
COASTAL LOW CLOSER TO THE REGION BY THUS/FRI. REGARDLESS APPEARS
THAT A COASTAL LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE REGION LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK. FELT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW
MIGRATES BACK TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS MAY REACH 60F AS COLD POOL IS STILL
OFFSHORE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS 2 POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH. COLD
POOL ALOFT SEEMS TO SIT OVER THE REGION AS WELL. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE
STEEPER AND SOME HINTS OF INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS ESP ALONG THE
MASS COASTLINE WHERE FORCING COULD OCCUR IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY THANKS
TO THE STRONG COLD POOL OVER THE REGION.


* WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A
TRANSITION DAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BUT
KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE SHOWN THE COASTAL
LOW THIS TIME AROUND...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IT WILL
OCCUR. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND FASTER COMPARED TO THE EC...REGARDLESS WET
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORE SPOTTY MVFR IN
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE.

1000 AM UPDATE...WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST AT OR ABOVE 25KTS ACROSS
SOME OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO CONTINUE
UNTIL AROUND NOON...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THAT TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT.
SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER
WATERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT MET. THOUGHT IT BEST TO KEEP SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING CONSISTENTLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS...RATHER THAN TAKING THEM DOWN...ONLY TO HAVE TO HOIST THEM
AGAIN LATER.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THOUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WIND AND
SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT COLD POOL WILL FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE CONNECTICUT RIVER NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE
ITS FLOOD STAGE ONE LAST TIME WITH THE HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.
FURTHER HIGH TIDE CRESTS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/NMB
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN/NMB
HYDROLOGY...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 241412
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1012 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1000 AM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY PULLED AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT STILL A CHANCE THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WOULD BRIEFLY PASS THRU THE MA NORTH SHORE BEFORE NOON. ALSO
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH A VERY LOW
CHANCE THAT SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO EXTREME
WESTERN FRANKLIN/HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY
WITH UPPER LOW IN OUR VICINITY. WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN TEMPS
STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...EXCEPT LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL/WESTERN MA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO THOSE WE SAW YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THE COLD
POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT
CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT FOR A
TIME. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING. ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT...AS CLEARER SKIES
COULD LEAD TO MORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS RETURN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CYCLES BACK
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO GRADUALLY PIVOT EAST
OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA ON SAT BUT THEN BECOMES NOTABLY ELONGATED BY
SUN AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE
00Z GEM IS THE WEAKEST SOLUTION WHILE THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM/00Z UKMET
AND 00Z ECMWF ARE ALL BETTER CLUSTERED WITH DEPTH AND TIMING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

BY NEXT WEEK APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY -NAO/-AO/+PNA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUED COLD POOL WILL KEEP ON SPINNING OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND BEGIN TO EXIT LATE TUESDAY. STILL LOTS OF
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE MIGRATION OF THE DESERT CUTOFF LOW AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND ITS POTENTIAL WRAP UP INTO ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW FOR NEW ENGLAND. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION
WILL BE THE INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND WHERE THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF
SYSTEM. CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS PHASES THE SOUTHERN PLAIN WAVE FASTER
THAN THE EC WHICH IS MORE AMPLIFIED. THE EC/S NORTHERN STREAM IS
FARTHER EASTWARD THAN THE GFS...IN WHICH THE EC SEEMS TO PULL A
COASTAL LOW CLOSER TO THE REGION BY THUS/FRI. REGARDLESS APPEARS
THAT A COASTAL LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE REGION LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK. FELT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW
MIGRATES BACK TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS MAY REACH 60F AS COLD POOL IS STILL
OFFSHORE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS 2 POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH. COLD
POOL ALOFT SEEMS TO SIT OVER THE REGION AS WELL. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE
STEEPER AND SOME HINTS OF INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS ESP ALONG THE
MASS COASTLINE WHERE FORCING COULD OCCUR IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY THANKS
TO THE STRONG COLD POOL OVER THE REGION.


* WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A
TRANSITION DAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BUT
KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE SHOWN THE COASTAL
LOW THIS TIME AROUND...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IT WILL
OCCUR. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND FASTER COMPARED TO THE EC...REGARDLESS WET
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORE SPOTTY MVFR IN
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE.

1000 AM UPDATE...WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST AT OR ABOVE 25KTS ACROSS
SOME OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO CONTINUE
UNTIL AROUND NOON...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THAT TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT.
SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER
WATERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT MET. THOUGHT IT BEST TO KEEP SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING CONSISTENTLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS...RATHER THAN TAKING THEM DOWN...ONLY TO HAVE TO HOIST THEM
AGAIN LATER.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THOUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WIND AND
SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT COLD POOL WILL FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE CONNECTICUT RIVER NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE
ITS FLOOD STAGE ONE LAST TIME WITH THE HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.
FURTHER HIGH TIDE CRESTS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/NMB
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN/NMB
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241412
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1012 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1000 AM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY PULLED AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT STILL A CHANCE THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WOULD BRIEFLY PASS THRU THE MA NORTH SHORE BEFORE NOON. ALSO
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH A VERY LOW
CHANCE THAT SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO EXTREME
WESTERN FRANKLIN/HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY
WITH UPPER LOW IN OUR VICINITY. WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN TEMPS
STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...EXCEPT LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL/WESTERN MA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO THOSE WE SAW YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THE COLD
POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT
CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT FOR A
TIME. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING. ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT...AS CLEARER SKIES
COULD LEAD TO MORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS RETURN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CYCLES BACK
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO GRADUALLY PIVOT EAST
OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA ON SAT BUT THEN BECOMES NOTABLY ELONGATED BY
SUN AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE
00Z GEM IS THE WEAKEST SOLUTION WHILE THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM/00Z UKMET
AND 00Z ECMWF ARE ALL BETTER CLUSTERED WITH DEPTH AND TIMING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

BY NEXT WEEK APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY -NAO/-AO/+PNA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUED COLD POOL WILL KEEP ON SPINNING OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND BEGIN TO EXIT LATE TUESDAY. STILL LOTS OF
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE MIGRATION OF THE DESERT CUTOFF LOW AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND ITS POTENTIAL WRAP UP INTO ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW FOR NEW ENGLAND. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION
WILL BE THE INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND WHERE THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF
SYSTEM. CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS PHASES THE SOUTHERN PLAIN WAVE FASTER
THAN THE EC WHICH IS MORE AMPLIFIED. THE EC/S NORTHERN STREAM IS
FARTHER EASTWARD THAN THE GFS...IN WHICH THE EC SEEMS TO PULL A
COASTAL LOW CLOSER TO THE REGION BY THUS/FRI. REGARDLESS APPEARS
THAT A COASTAL LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE REGION LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK. FELT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW
MIGRATES BACK TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS MAY REACH 60F AS COLD POOL IS STILL
OFFSHORE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS 2 POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH. COLD
POOL ALOFT SEEMS TO SIT OVER THE REGION AS WELL. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE
STEEPER AND SOME HINTS OF INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS ESP ALONG THE
MASS COASTLINE WHERE FORCING COULD OCCUR IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY THANKS
TO THE STRONG COLD POOL OVER THE REGION.


* WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A
TRANSITION DAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BUT
KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE SHOWN THE COASTAL
LOW THIS TIME AROUND...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IT WILL
OCCUR. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND FASTER COMPARED TO THE EC...REGARDLESS WET
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORE SPOTTY MVFR IN
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE.

1000 AM UPDATE...WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST AT OR ABOVE 25KTS ACROSS
SOME OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO CONTINUE
UNTIL AROUND NOON...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THAT TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT.
SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER
WATERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT MET. THOUGHT IT BEST TO KEEP SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING CONSISTENTLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS...RATHER THAN TAKING THEM DOWN...ONLY TO HAVE TO HOIST THEM
AGAIN LATER.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THOUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WIND AND
SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT COLD POOL WILL FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE CONNECTICUT RIVER NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE
ITS FLOOD STAGE ONE LAST TIME WITH THE HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.
FURTHER HIGH TIDE CRESTS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/NMB
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN/NMB
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241412
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1012 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1000 AM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY PULLED AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT STILL A CHANCE THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WOULD BRIEFLY PASS THRU THE MA NORTH SHORE BEFORE NOON. ALSO
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH A VERY LOW
CHANCE THAT SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO EXTREME
WESTERN FRANKLIN/HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY
WITH UPPER LOW IN OUR VICINITY. WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN TEMPS
STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...EXCEPT LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL/WESTERN MA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO THOSE WE SAW YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THE COLD
POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT
CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT FOR A
TIME. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING. ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT...AS CLEARER SKIES
COULD LEAD TO MORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS RETURN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CYCLES BACK
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO GRADUALLY PIVOT EAST
OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA ON SAT BUT THEN BECOMES NOTABLY ELONGATED BY
SUN AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE
00Z GEM IS THE WEAKEST SOLUTION WHILE THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM/00Z UKMET
AND 00Z ECMWF ARE ALL BETTER CLUSTERED WITH DEPTH AND TIMING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

BY NEXT WEEK APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY -NAO/-AO/+PNA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUED COLD POOL WILL KEEP ON SPINNING OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND BEGIN TO EXIT LATE TUESDAY. STILL LOTS OF
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE MIGRATION OF THE DESERT CUTOFF LOW AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND ITS POTENTIAL WRAP UP INTO ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW FOR NEW ENGLAND. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION
WILL BE THE INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND WHERE THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF
SYSTEM. CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS PHASES THE SOUTHERN PLAIN WAVE FASTER
THAN THE EC WHICH IS MORE AMPLIFIED. THE EC/S NORTHERN STREAM IS
FARTHER EASTWARD THAN THE GFS...IN WHICH THE EC SEEMS TO PULL A
COASTAL LOW CLOSER TO THE REGION BY THUS/FRI. REGARDLESS APPEARS
THAT A COASTAL LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE REGION LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK. FELT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW
MIGRATES BACK TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS MAY REACH 60F AS COLD POOL IS STILL
OFFSHORE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS 2 POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH. COLD
POOL ALOFT SEEMS TO SIT OVER THE REGION AS WELL. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE
STEEPER AND SOME HINTS OF INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS ESP ALONG THE
MASS COASTLINE WHERE FORCING COULD OCCUR IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY THANKS
TO THE STRONG COLD POOL OVER THE REGION.


* WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A
TRANSITION DAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BUT
KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE SHOWN THE COASTAL
LOW THIS TIME AROUND...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IT WILL
OCCUR. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND FASTER COMPARED TO THE EC...REGARDLESS WET
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORE SPOTTY MVFR IN
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE.

1000 AM UPDATE...WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST AT OR ABOVE 25KTS ACROSS
SOME OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO CONTINUE
UNTIL AROUND NOON...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THAT TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT.
SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER
WATERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT MET. THOUGHT IT BEST TO KEEP SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING CONSISTENTLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS...RATHER THAN TAKING THEM DOWN...ONLY TO HAVE TO HOIST THEM
AGAIN LATER.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THOUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WIND AND
SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT COLD POOL WILL FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE CONNECTICUT RIVER NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE
ITS FLOOD STAGE ONE LAST TIME WITH THE HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.
FURTHER HIGH TIDE CRESTS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/NMB
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN/NMB
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241412
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1012 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1000 AM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY PULLED AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT STILL A CHANCE THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WOULD BRIEFLY PASS THRU THE MA NORTH SHORE BEFORE NOON. ALSO
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH A VERY LOW
CHANCE THAT SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO EXTREME
WESTERN FRANKLIN/HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY
WITH UPPER LOW IN OUR VICINITY. WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN TEMPS
STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...EXCEPT LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL/WESTERN MA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO THOSE WE SAW YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THE COLD
POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT
CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT FOR A
TIME. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING. ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT...AS CLEARER SKIES
COULD LEAD TO MORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS RETURN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CYCLES BACK
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO GRADUALLY PIVOT EAST
OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA ON SAT BUT THEN BECOMES NOTABLY ELONGATED BY
SUN AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE
00Z GEM IS THE WEAKEST SOLUTION WHILE THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM/00Z UKMET
AND 00Z ECMWF ARE ALL BETTER CLUSTERED WITH DEPTH AND TIMING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

BY NEXT WEEK APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY -NAO/-AO/+PNA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUED COLD POOL WILL KEEP ON SPINNING OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND BEGIN TO EXIT LATE TUESDAY. STILL LOTS OF
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE MIGRATION OF THE DESERT CUTOFF LOW AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND ITS POTENTIAL WRAP UP INTO ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW FOR NEW ENGLAND. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION
WILL BE THE INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND WHERE THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF
SYSTEM. CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS PHASES THE SOUTHERN PLAIN WAVE FASTER
THAN THE EC WHICH IS MORE AMPLIFIED. THE EC/S NORTHERN STREAM IS
FARTHER EASTWARD THAN THE GFS...IN WHICH THE EC SEEMS TO PULL A
COASTAL LOW CLOSER TO THE REGION BY THUS/FRI. REGARDLESS APPEARS
THAT A COASTAL LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE REGION LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK. FELT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW
MIGRATES BACK TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS MAY REACH 60F AS COLD POOL IS STILL
OFFSHORE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS 2 POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH. COLD
POOL ALOFT SEEMS TO SIT OVER THE REGION AS WELL. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE
STEEPER AND SOME HINTS OF INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS ESP ALONG THE
MASS COASTLINE WHERE FORCING COULD OCCUR IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY THANKS
TO THE STRONG COLD POOL OVER THE REGION.


* WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A
TRANSITION DAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BUT
KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE SHOWN THE COASTAL
LOW THIS TIME AROUND...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IT WILL
OCCUR. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND FASTER COMPARED TO THE EC...REGARDLESS WET
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORE SPOTTY MVFR IN
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE.

1000 AM UPDATE...WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST AT OR ABOVE 25KTS ACROSS
SOME OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO CONTINUE
UNTIL AROUND NOON...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THAT TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT.
SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER
WATERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT MET. THOUGHT IT BEST TO KEEP SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING CONSISTENTLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS...RATHER THAN TAKING THEM DOWN...ONLY TO HAVE TO HOIST THEM
AGAIN LATER.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THOUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WIND AND
SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT COLD POOL WILL FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE CONNECTICUT RIVER NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE
ITS FLOOD STAGE ONE LAST TIME WITH THE HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.
FURTHER HIGH TIDE CRESTS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/NMB
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN/NMB
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241100
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM DOWN FROM NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. ANTICIPATE THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE NORTH TO SOUTH SHOWERS TO ROTATE TO A MORE NW TO
SE...WHILE MOVING OFFSHORE. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON THE
EASTERN HALF OF MA...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO 40S OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY
RATHER THAN SNOW.

ALSO WATCHING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS
UPSTATE NY. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE IF THEY WILL MAKE IT OVER THE
BERKSHIRES THIS MORNING.

PLAN ON CANCELING FREEZE WARNING HERE AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR. A
FEW SITES ACROSS NORTHERN CT HAVE DROPPED DOWN TO FREEZING BUT
WITH THE SUN COMING UP ANTICIPATE A QUICK WARMUP ABOVE 32F.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE WE SAW
YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THE COLD
POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT
CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT FOR A
TIME. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING. ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT...AS CLEARER SKIES
COULD LEAD TO MORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS RETURN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CYCLES BACK
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO GRADUALLY PIVOT EAST
OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA ON SAT BUT THEN BECOMES NOTABLY ELONGATED BY
SUN AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE
00Z GEM IS THE WEAKEST SOLUTION WHILE THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM/00Z UKMET
AND 00Z ECMWF ARE ALL BETTER CLUSTERED WITH DEPTH AND TIMING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

BY NEXT WEEK APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY -NAO/-AO/+PNA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUED COLD POOL WILL KEEP ON SPINNING OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND BEGIN TO EXIT LATE TUESDAY. STILL LOTS OF
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE MIGRATION OF THE DESERT CUTOFF LOW AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND ITS POTENTIAL WRAP UP INTO ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW FOR NEW ENGLAND. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION
WILL BE THE INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND WHERE THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF
SYSTEM. CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS PHASES THE SOUTHERN PLAIN WAVE FASTER
THAN THE EC WHICH IS MORE AMPLIFIED. THE EC/S NORTHERN STREAM IS
FARTHER EASTWARD THAN THE GFS...IN WHICH THE EC SEEMS TO PULL A
COASTAL LOW CLOSER TO THE REGION BY THUS/FRI. REGARDLESS APPEARS
THAT A COASTAL LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE REGION LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK. FELT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW
MIGRATES BACK TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS MAY REACH 60F AS COLD POOL IS STILL
OFFSHORE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS 2 POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH. COLD
POOL ALOFT SEEMS TO SIT OVER THE REGION AS WELL. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE
STEEPER AND SOME HINTS OF INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS ESP ALONG THE
MASS COASTLINE WHERE FORCING COULD OCCUR IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY THANKS
TO THE STRONG COLD POOL OVER THE REGION.


* WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A
TRANSITION DAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BUT
KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE SHOWN THE COASTAL
LOW THIS TIME AROUND...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IT WILL
OCCUR. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND FASTER COMPARED TO THE EC...REGARDLESS WET
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORE SPOTTY MVFR IN
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE.

700 AM UPDATE...WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST AT OR ABOVE 25KTS ACROSS
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. EXPECT THESE GUSTY TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THEREFORE HAVE HOISTED A SCA TIL NOON. EXPECT
THE DAY SHIFT TO DROP IT EARLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT.
SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER
WATERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT MET. THOUGHT IT BEST TO KEEP SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING CONSISTENTLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS...RATHER THAN TAKING THEM DOWN...ONLY TO HAVE TO HOIST THEM
AGAIN LATER.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THOUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WIND AND
SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT COLD POOL WILL FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE CONNECTICUT RIVER NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE
ITS FLOOD STAGE ONE LAST TIME WITH THE HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.
FURTHER HIGH TIDE CRESTS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     RIZ001-003.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241100
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM DOWN FROM NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. ANTICIPATE THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE NORTH TO SOUTH SHOWERS TO ROTATE TO A MORE NW TO
SE...WHILE MOVING OFFSHORE. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON THE
EASTERN HALF OF MA...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO 40S OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY
RATHER THAN SNOW.

ALSO WATCHING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS
UPSTATE NY. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE IF THEY WILL MAKE IT OVER THE
BERKSHIRES THIS MORNING.

PLAN ON CANCELING FREEZE WARNING HERE AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR. A
FEW SITES ACROSS NORTHERN CT HAVE DROPPED DOWN TO FREEZING BUT
WITH THE SUN COMING UP ANTICIPATE A QUICK WARMUP ABOVE 32F.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE WE SAW
YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THE COLD
POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT
CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT FOR A
TIME. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING. ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT...AS CLEARER SKIES
COULD LEAD TO MORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS RETURN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CYCLES BACK
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO GRADUALLY PIVOT EAST
OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA ON SAT BUT THEN BECOMES NOTABLY ELONGATED BY
SUN AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE
00Z GEM IS THE WEAKEST SOLUTION WHILE THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM/00Z UKMET
AND 00Z ECMWF ARE ALL BETTER CLUSTERED WITH DEPTH AND TIMING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

BY NEXT WEEK APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY -NAO/-AO/+PNA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUED COLD POOL WILL KEEP ON SPINNING OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND BEGIN TO EXIT LATE TUESDAY. STILL LOTS OF
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE MIGRATION OF THE DESERT CUTOFF LOW AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND ITS POTENTIAL WRAP UP INTO ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW FOR NEW ENGLAND. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION
WILL BE THE INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND WHERE THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF
SYSTEM. CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS PHASES THE SOUTHERN PLAIN WAVE FASTER
THAN THE EC WHICH IS MORE AMPLIFIED. THE EC/S NORTHERN STREAM IS
FARTHER EASTWARD THAN THE GFS...IN WHICH THE EC SEEMS TO PULL A
COASTAL LOW CLOSER TO THE REGION BY THUS/FRI. REGARDLESS APPEARS
THAT A COASTAL LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE REGION LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK. FELT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW
MIGRATES BACK TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS MAY REACH 60F AS COLD POOL IS STILL
OFFSHORE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS 2 POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH. COLD
POOL ALOFT SEEMS TO SIT OVER THE REGION AS WELL. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE
STEEPER AND SOME HINTS OF INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS ESP ALONG THE
MASS COASTLINE WHERE FORCING COULD OCCUR IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY THANKS
TO THE STRONG COLD POOL OVER THE REGION.


* WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A
TRANSITION DAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BUT
KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE SHOWN THE COASTAL
LOW THIS TIME AROUND...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IT WILL
OCCUR. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND FASTER COMPARED TO THE EC...REGARDLESS WET
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORE SPOTTY MVFR IN
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE.

700 AM UPDATE...WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST AT OR ABOVE 25KTS ACROSS
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. EXPECT THESE GUSTY TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THEREFORE HAVE HOISTED A SCA TIL NOON. EXPECT
THE DAY SHIFT TO DROP IT EARLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT.
SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER
WATERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT MET. THOUGHT IT BEST TO KEEP SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING CONSISTENTLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS...RATHER THAN TAKING THEM DOWN...ONLY TO HAVE TO HOIST THEM
AGAIN LATER.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THOUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WIND AND
SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT COLD POOL WILL FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE CONNECTICUT RIVER NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE
ITS FLOOD STAGE ONE LAST TIME WITH THE HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.
FURTHER HIGH TIDE CRESTS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     RIZ001-003.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 240838
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
438 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STARTING TO LOSE CONFIDENCE IN THE FREEZE WARNING ACROSS NORTHERN
CT AND NORTHWEST RI. LOTS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT HAVE PREVENTED
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 3.9 MICRON
AND 11.7 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A RATHER SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN MA...JUST NORTH OF THE CT
BORDER. AS SUCH...IT IS STILL CONCEIVABLE FOR A RAPID DROP TOWARD
THE FREEZING MARK JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. WILL LEAVE THE WARNING
INTACT FOR THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE FOR TODAY...WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS
WITH SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THOSE WE SAW YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THE COLD
POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT
CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT FOR A
TIME. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING. ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT...AS CLEARER SKIES
COULD LEAD TO MORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS RETURN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CYCLES BACK
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO GRADUALLY PIVOT EAST
OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA ON SAT BUT THEN BECOMES NOTABLY ELONGATED BY
SUN AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE
00Z GEM IS THE WEAKEST SOLUTION WHILE THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM/00Z UKMET
AND 00Z ECMWF ARE ALL BETTER CLUSTERED WITH DEPTH AND TIMING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

BY NEXT WEEK APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY -NAO/-AO/+PNA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUED COLD POOL WILL KEEP ON SPINNING OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND BEGIN TO EXIT LATE TUESDAY. STILL LOTS OF
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE MIGRATION OF THE DESERT CUTOFF LOW AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND ITS POTENTIAL WRAP UP INTO ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW FOR NEW ENGLAND. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION
WILL BE THE INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND WHERE THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF
SYSTEM. CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS PHASES THE SOUTHERN PLAIN WAVE FASTER
THAN THE EC WHICH IS MORE AMPLIFIED. THE EC/S NORTHERN STREAM IS
FARTHER EASTWARD THAN THE GFS...IN WHICH THE EC SEEMS TO PULL A
COASTAL LOW CLOSER TO THE REGION BY THUS/FRI. REGARDLESS APPEARS
THAT A COASTAL LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE REGION LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK. FELT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW
MIGRATES BACK TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS MAY REACH 60F AS COLD POOL IS STILL
OFFSHORE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS 2 POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH. COLD
POOL ALOFT SEEMS TO SIT OVER THE REGION AS WELL. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE
STEEPER AND SOME HINTS OF INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS ESP ALONG THE
MASS COASTLINE WHERE FORCING COULD OCCUR IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY THANKS
TO THE STRONG COLD POOL OVER THE REGION.


* WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A
TRANSITION DAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BUT
KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE SHOWN THE COASTAL
LOW THIS TIME AROUND...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IT WILL
OCCUR. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND FASTER COMPARED TO THE EC...REGARDLESS WET
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORE SPOTTY MVFR IN
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT. A FEW SPOTS MAY BRIEFLY
GUST UP TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST
OUTER WATERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT MET. THOUGHT IT BEST TO KEEP
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING CONSISTENTLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS...RATHER THAN TAKING THEM DOWN...ONLY TO HAVE TO HOIST
THEM AGAIN LATER.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THOUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WIND AND
SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT COLD POOL WILL FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE CONNECTICUT RIVER NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE
ITS FLOOD STAGE ONE LAST TIME WITH THE HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.
FURTHER HIGH TIDE CRESTS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     RIZ001-003.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...BELK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 240838
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
438 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STARTING TO LOSE CONFIDENCE IN THE FREEZE WARNING ACROSS NORTHERN
CT AND NORTHWEST RI. LOTS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT HAVE PREVENTED
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 3.9 MICRON
AND 11.7 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A RATHER SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN MA...JUST NORTH OF THE CT
BORDER. AS SUCH...IT IS STILL CONCEIVABLE FOR A RAPID DROP TOWARD
THE FREEZING MARK JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. WILL LEAVE THE WARNING
INTACT FOR THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE FOR TODAY...WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS
WITH SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THOSE WE SAW YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THE COLD
POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT
CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT FOR A
TIME. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING. ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT...AS CLEARER SKIES
COULD LEAD TO MORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS RETURN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CYCLES BACK
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO GRADUALLY PIVOT EAST
OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA ON SAT BUT THEN BECOMES NOTABLY ELONGATED BY
SUN AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE
00Z GEM IS THE WEAKEST SOLUTION WHILE THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM/00Z UKMET
AND 00Z ECMWF ARE ALL BETTER CLUSTERED WITH DEPTH AND TIMING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

BY NEXT WEEK APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY -NAO/-AO/+PNA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUED COLD POOL WILL KEEP ON SPINNING OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND BEGIN TO EXIT LATE TUESDAY. STILL LOTS OF
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE MIGRATION OF THE DESERT CUTOFF LOW AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND ITS POTENTIAL WRAP UP INTO ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW FOR NEW ENGLAND. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION
WILL BE THE INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND WHERE THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF
SYSTEM. CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS PHASES THE SOUTHERN PLAIN WAVE FASTER
THAN THE EC WHICH IS MORE AMPLIFIED. THE EC/S NORTHERN STREAM IS
FARTHER EASTWARD THAN THE GFS...IN WHICH THE EC SEEMS TO PULL A
COASTAL LOW CLOSER TO THE REGION BY THUS/FRI. REGARDLESS APPEARS
THAT A COASTAL LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE REGION LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK. FELT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW
MIGRATES BACK TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS MAY REACH 60F AS COLD POOL IS STILL
OFFSHORE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS 2 POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH. COLD
POOL ALOFT SEEMS TO SIT OVER THE REGION AS WELL. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE
STEEPER AND SOME HINTS OF INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS ESP ALONG THE
MASS COASTLINE WHERE FORCING COULD OCCUR IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY THANKS
TO THE STRONG COLD POOL OVER THE REGION.


* WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A
TRANSITION DAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BUT
KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE SHOWN THE COASTAL
LOW THIS TIME AROUND...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IT WILL
OCCUR. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND FASTER COMPARED TO THE EC...REGARDLESS WET
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORE SPOTTY MVFR IN
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT. A FEW SPOTS MAY BRIEFLY
GUST UP TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST
OUTER WATERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT MET. THOUGHT IT BEST TO KEEP
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING CONSISTENTLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS...RATHER THAN TAKING THEM DOWN...ONLY TO HAVE TO HOIST
THEM AGAIN LATER.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THOUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WIND AND
SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT COLD POOL WILL FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE CONNECTICUT RIVER NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE
ITS FLOOD STAGE ONE LAST TIME WITH THE HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.
FURTHER HIGH TIDE CRESTS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     RIZ001-003.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...BELK




000
FXUS61 KGYX 240708
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
308 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE NORTHEAST AND
MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND PROVIDING COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORNINGS WILL SEE MORE
SUNSHINE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING MOST AFTERNOONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE PRIMARY
UPPER LOW. THESE WILL DISSIPATE AS THE MORNING GOES ON. DO NOT
EXPECT AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY DUE
TO A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME SHOWERS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE PARENT LOW
TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD MORE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS.
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 20S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 30S ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY
BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY EVEN OVER
COASTAL AREAS. ANY SHOWERS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GRAUPEL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER... IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ALLOWING THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER OR JUST TO THE EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK PRODUCING A COOL UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY WILL BE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING THE
LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. ALSO, SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD
CYCLONIC SYSTEM BUT TIMING OF ANY OF THESE WILL BE VERY TOUGH.
WILL BROAD BRUSH THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THERE IS SOME HOPE THAT THE UPPER
LOW FINALLY GETS KICKED FURTHER EAST ALLOWING A BRIEF REPRIEVE BY
WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGING TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE FOR THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR AND SHOWERS
PRIMARILY TONIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PROVIDES FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
AND CALMING SEAS.

LONG TERM...THE WATERS REMAIN QUIET THROUGH MONDAY...AS WEAK
SURFACE LOW MEANDERS AROUND NEAR THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH NO WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS ARE
EXPECTED... COOL TEMPERATURES AND OFF AND ON SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP
FUELS DAMP FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 240708
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
308 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE NORTHEAST AND
MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND PROVIDING COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORNINGS WILL SEE MORE
SUNSHINE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING MOST AFTERNOONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE PRIMARY
UPPER LOW. THESE WILL DISSIPATE AS THE MORNING GOES ON. DO NOT
EXPECT AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY DUE
TO A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME SHOWERS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE PARENT LOW
TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD MORE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS.
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 20S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 30S ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY
BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY EVEN OVER
COASTAL AREAS. ANY SHOWERS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GRAUPEL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER... IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ALLOWING THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER OR JUST TO THE EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK PRODUCING A COOL UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY WILL BE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING THE
LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. ALSO, SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD
CYCLONIC SYSTEM BUT TIMING OF ANY OF THESE WILL BE VERY TOUGH.
WILL BROAD BRUSH THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THERE IS SOME HOPE THAT THE UPPER
LOW FINALLY GETS KICKED FURTHER EAST ALLOWING A BRIEF REPRIEVE BY
WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGING TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE FOR THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR AND SHOWERS
PRIMARILY TONIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PROVIDES FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
AND CALMING SEAS.

LONG TERM...THE WATERS REMAIN QUIET THROUGH MONDAY...AS WEAK
SURFACE LOW MEANDERS AROUND NEAR THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH NO WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS ARE
EXPECTED... COOL TEMPERATURES AND OFF AND ON SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP
FUELS DAMP FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KBOX 240230
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1030 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FINALLY PUSHING OFF THE COAST TOWARD THE
MARITIMES THIS EVENING. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE WERE CROSSING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...WITH ONLY
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL BEING REPORTED. FARTHER
WEST...LAKE-EFFECT SNOW WAS STAYING MAINLY WEST OF THE SPINE OF
THE BERKSHIRES.

CLOUDS REMAIN THE KEY TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE
ABUNDANT CLOUDS ACROSS NY STATE...WHICH IS BENEATH THE CORE OF A
COLD POOL ALOFT. THESE CLOUDS WILL TRY TO ROTATE EAST INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE DATA...ESPECIALLY WITHIN
THE 3.9 MICRON AND 11.7 MICRON CHANNELS...SHOWING PLENTY OF BREAKS
BETWEEN THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND THOSE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 20S...
SOME AREAS COULD FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING IF THE CLEARING CAN STAY
IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH. WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WELL AWAY FROM
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

GIVEN THESE FACTORS...KEPT THE FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN CT AND NORTHWEST RI. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
TRENDS. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS WARNING COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING IF TOO MANY CLOUDS LINGER OVER THE WARNING AREA.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK...THOUGH DID MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD AIR AT SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB...AS WELL
AS SOME LIFT IN THIS LAYER. EXPECT CLOUDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET
BUT NOT COMPLETELY GOING AWAY. WEST WINDS WILL BRING AIR IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.

CLOUDS AND LINGERING WIND WILL INTERFERE WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT
OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONGLY SHELTERED SPOTS. HOWEVER...AIR TEMPS AT
OR A LITTLE BELOW 32F ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON HAS STARTED IN CT-RI AS WELL
AS IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN
AT LEAST 50 PERCENT OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CT. FREEZING
TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST RI. EXPECTED COVERAGE IS
LESS IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING
FOR HARTFORD-TOLLAND-WINDHAM COUNTIES IN CT AND WESTERN
PROVIDENCE-WESTERN KENT COUNTIES IN RI FOR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. IN THE RI PORTION...OUR EXPECTATION IS MOSTLY TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE SCITUATE RESERVOIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP.
SHOWER/SPRINKLE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. IT/S STILL
UNSTABLE ALOFT BUT LACKING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO
ORGANIZE CONVECTION. THE MIXED LAYER REACHES NEAR 800 MB AGAIN
WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE LAYER. TEMPS NEAR THE TOP OF THE
LAYER WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND SO WE EXPECT MAX SFC TEMPS
EITHER SIDE OF 50...PERHAPS MID 50S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST BUT COLD POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY
FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO LESS COLD. THIS
LEAVES LESS ROOM FOR ANY ADDITIONAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN CT. THIS
STATUS WILL BE REEVALUATED BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
* BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH ONSHORE WINDS MON INTO TUE
* LOW CONFIDENCE FOR COASTAL SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48
WITH CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AND WESTERN ONTARIO...RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND
ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. 12Z MODEL
SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND. THE LOW TRIES TO
SHIFT E SUNDAY...ONLY TO ROTATE BACK TOWARD THE REGION AND
BECOMING E-W ORIENTED. THIS WILL PINCH THE WESTERN TROUGH INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO AT FIRST...THEN SEND ENERGY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WITH A MIGRATING CUTOFF H5 LOW.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD DIVERGE WITH
THEIR HANDLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LENDING TO LOWERED
CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY WITH THE FORECAST...THOUGH THE 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF TRY TO WORK THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTO THE LOWER TO
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY AROUND TUESDAY. FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE RATHER WIDE SOLUTIONS MAINLY DUE TO
SPLIT PATTERN ON THE E COAST AND HANDLING PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF
POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A COASTAL LOW
TRIES TO TAKE SHAPE SOMEWHERE FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE SE U.S.
COAST WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY.

LEANED TOWARD BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE WHICH GAVE GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
BEYOND MONDAY...LEANED TOWARD ENSEMBLES WHICH WERE A BIT MORE
STABLE WITH THEIR POSITIONS AND TRACKS OF THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. THIS WAS CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG H5 CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH IT LOOKS TO PINWHEEL AS IT TRIES TO
BECOME E-W ORIENTED AND RETROGRADE BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. WHILE
THERE IS ONLY WEAK SURFACE FEATURES...THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
WILL KEEP SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DEVELOPING. LOOKS LIKE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS OF MA.

AM NOTING RATHER STRONG LOW PRES THAT WILL PASS S OF THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND...A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT WORKED OUT OF THE DESERT SW
FROM THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGHING. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP MOST
OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE REGION.

EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH DAYS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SUN EARLY
BEFORE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CLOUDS DEVELOP. HOWEVER...IF A
FEW BREAKS OF SUN HANG INTO THE AFTERNOON...A FEW LOCATIONS MIGHT
REACH 60. WITH LIGHT PRES GRADIENT...SEA BREEZES MAY ALSO DEVELOP
MAINLY ALONG E COASTAL AREAS BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MODELS BEGIN DO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. AM NOTING THE NE UPPER LOW RETURNS TO SIT AND SPIN
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ITS ORIENTATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
SHIFT TO N-NE OVER TIME...WHICH WILL ALLOW MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK ONSHORE. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME POTENT SHORT WAVES
SPINNING IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING
HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS...LOOKS LIKE ON THE ORDER OF 0.1 TO 0.25
INCHES FROM 12Z MON TO 00Z WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO DIVERGE...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TWO SYSTEMS TO PONDER UPON...FIRST THE
CUTOFF SITTING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HOW THIS WILL TRACK OFFSHORE.
THE SECOND IS THE CUTOFF LOW THAT WORKS E ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM OUT OF THE DESERT SW. FOR NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WED/WED
NIGHT. BIG QUESTION IS ON THURSDAY...WHETHER THE NE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY AND WHETHER LOW PRES THAT LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SE U.S. WILL EITHER MOVE E OR TRY TO WORK UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO HAPPEN UNTIL BEYOND THURSDAY.

AT THIS POINT...KEPT PERSISTENCE GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY. W-NW WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. AS WITH TODAY...CONDITIONS
MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS
COULD LOWER TO MVFR QUICKLY IN A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH AROUND SUNSET EACH DAY. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. WEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR
25 KT EARLY AND 15-20 KNOTS LATE. SEAS AT 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND RI WATERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS. A FEW SPOTS MAY
APPROACH 25 KNOTS...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND. SEAS LINGER
AT 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ON THOSE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL LINGER BETWEEN 4-5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT W WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT SAT/SAT NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS...THEN WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. E SWELLS WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SEAS INCREASING TO AROUND 5-6 FT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS GENERALLY N-NE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY UP TO 25 KT
ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT...HIGHEST ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WAS MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS COMBINED WITH
TIDAL INFLUENCES AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. THE RIVER
NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS UNDER STRONG TIDAL INFLUENCE. AS A RESULT...
THE RIVER IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT HIGH TIDE AND NEAR FLOOD STAGE
AT LOW TIDE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TREND LOWER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
CYCLES...WITH A HIGH TIDE CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/BELK/EVT
HYDROLOGY...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 240230
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1030 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FINALLY PUSHING OFF THE COAST TOWARD THE
MARITIMES THIS EVENING. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE WERE CROSSING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...WITH ONLY
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL BEING REPORTED. FARTHER
WEST...LAKE-EFFECT SNOW WAS STAYING MAINLY WEST OF THE SPINE OF
THE BERKSHIRES.

CLOUDS REMAIN THE KEY TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE
ABUNDANT CLOUDS ACROSS NY STATE...WHICH IS BENEATH THE CORE OF A
COLD POOL ALOFT. THESE CLOUDS WILL TRY TO ROTATE EAST INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE DATA...ESPECIALLY WITHIN
THE 3.9 MICRON AND 11.7 MICRON CHANNELS...SHOWING PLENTY OF BREAKS
BETWEEN THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND THOSE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 20S...
SOME AREAS COULD FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING IF THE CLEARING CAN STAY
IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH. WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WELL AWAY FROM
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

GIVEN THESE FACTORS...KEPT THE FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN CT AND NORTHWEST RI. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
TRENDS. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS WARNING COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING IF TOO MANY CLOUDS LINGER OVER THE WARNING AREA.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK...THOUGH DID MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD AIR AT SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB...AS WELL
AS SOME LIFT IN THIS LAYER. EXPECT CLOUDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET
BUT NOT COMPLETELY GOING AWAY. WEST WINDS WILL BRING AIR IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.

CLOUDS AND LINGERING WIND WILL INTERFERE WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT
OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONGLY SHELTERED SPOTS. HOWEVER...AIR TEMPS AT
OR A LITTLE BELOW 32F ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON HAS STARTED IN CT-RI AS WELL
AS IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN
AT LEAST 50 PERCENT OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CT. FREEZING
TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST RI. EXPECTED COVERAGE IS
LESS IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING
FOR HARTFORD-TOLLAND-WINDHAM COUNTIES IN CT AND WESTERN
PROVIDENCE-WESTERN KENT COUNTIES IN RI FOR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. IN THE RI PORTION...OUR EXPECTATION IS MOSTLY TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE SCITUATE RESERVOIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP.
SHOWER/SPRINKLE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. IT/S STILL
UNSTABLE ALOFT BUT LACKING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO
ORGANIZE CONVECTION. THE MIXED LAYER REACHES NEAR 800 MB AGAIN
WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE LAYER. TEMPS NEAR THE TOP OF THE
LAYER WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND SO WE EXPECT MAX SFC TEMPS
EITHER SIDE OF 50...PERHAPS MID 50S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST BUT COLD POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY
FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO LESS COLD. THIS
LEAVES LESS ROOM FOR ANY ADDITIONAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN CT. THIS
STATUS WILL BE REEVALUATED BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
* BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH ONSHORE WINDS MON INTO TUE
* LOW CONFIDENCE FOR COASTAL SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48
WITH CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AND WESTERN ONTARIO...RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND
ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. 12Z MODEL
SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND. THE LOW TRIES TO
SHIFT E SUNDAY...ONLY TO ROTATE BACK TOWARD THE REGION AND
BECOMING E-W ORIENTED. THIS WILL PINCH THE WESTERN TROUGH INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO AT FIRST...THEN SEND ENERGY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WITH A MIGRATING CUTOFF H5 LOW.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD DIVERGE WITH
THEIR HANDLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LENDING TO LOWERED
CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY WITH THE FORECAST...THOUGH THE 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF TRY TO WORK THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTO THE LOWER TO
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY AROUND TUESDAY. FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE RATHER WIDE SOLUTIONS MAINLY DUE TO
SPLIT PATTERN ON THE E COAST AND HANDLING PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF
POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A COASTAL LOW
TRIES TO TAKE SHAPE SOMEWHERE FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE SE U.S.
COAST WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY.

LEANED TOWARD BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE WHICH GAVE GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
BEYOND MONDAY...LEANED TOWARD ENSEMBLES WHICH WERE A BIT MORE
STABLE WITH THEIR POSITIONS AND TRACKS OF THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. THIS WAS CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG H5 CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH IT LOOKS TO PINWHEEL AS IT TRIES TO
BECOME E-W ORIENTED AND RETROGRADE BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. WHILE
THERE IS ONLY WEAK SURFACE FEATURES...THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
WILL KEEP SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DEVELOPING. LOOKS LIKE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS OF MA.

AM NOTING RATHER STRONG LOW PRES THAT WILL PASS S OF THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND...A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT WORKED OUT OF THE DESERT SW
FROM THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGHING. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP MOST
OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE REGION.

EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH DAYS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SUN EARLY
BEFORE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CLOUDS DEVELOP. HOWEVER...IF A
FEW BREAKS OF SUN HANG INTO THE AFTERNOON...A FEW LOCATIONS MIGHT
REACH 60. WITH LIGHT PRES GRADIENT...SEA BREEZES MAY ALSO DEVELOP
MAINLY ALONG E COASTAL AREAS BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MODELS BEGIN DO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. AM NOTING THE NE UPPER LOW RETURNS TO SIT AND SPIN
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ITS ORIENTATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
SHIFT TO N-NE OVER TIME...WHICH WILL ALLOW MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK ONSHORE. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME POTENT SHORT WAVES
SPINNING IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING
HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS...LOOKS LIKE ON THE ORDER OF 0.1 TO 0.25
INCHES FROM 12Z MON TO 00Z WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO DIVERGE...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TWO SYSTEMS TO PONDER UPON...FIRST THE
CUTOFF SITTING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HOW THIS WILL TRACK OFFSHORE.
THE SECOND IS THE CUTOFF LOW THAT WORKS E ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM OUT OF THE DESERT SW. FOR NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WED/WED
NIGHT. BIG QUESTION IS ON THURSDAY...WHETHER THE NE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY AND WHETHER LOW PRES THAT LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SE U.S. WILL EITHER MOVE E OR TRY TO WORK UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO HAPPEN UNTIL BEYOND THURSDAY.

AT THIS POINT...KEPT PERSISTENCE GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY. W-NW WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. AS WITH TODAY...CONDITIONS
MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS
COULD LOWER TO MVFR QUICKLY IN A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH AROUND SUNSET EACH DAY. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. WEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR
25 KT EARLY AND 15-20 KNOTS LATE. SEAS AT 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND RI WATERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS. A FEW SPOTS MAY
APPROACH 25 KNOTS...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND. SEAS LINGER
AT 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ON THOSE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL LINGER BETWEEN 4-5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT W WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT SAT/SAT NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS...THEN WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. E SWELLS WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SEAS INCREASING TO AROUND 5-6 FT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS GENERALLY N-NE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY UP TO 25 KT
ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT...HIGHEST ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WAS MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS COMBINED WITH
TIDAL INFLUENCES AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. THE RIVER
NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS UNDER STRONG TIDAL INFLUENCE. AS A RESULT...
THE RIVER IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT HIGH TIDE AND NEAR FLOOD STAGE
AT LOW TIDE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TREND LOWER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
CYCLES...WITH A HIGH TIDE CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/BELK/EVT
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240230
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1030 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FINALLY PUSHING OFF THE COAST TOWARD THE
MARITIMES THIS EVENING. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE WERE CROSSING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...WITH ONLY
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL BEING REPORTED. FARTHER
WEST...LAKE-EFFECT SNOW WAS STAYING MAINLY WEST OF THE SPINE OF
THE BERKSHIRES.

CLOUDS REMAIN THE KEY TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE
ABUNDANT CLOUDS ACROSS NY STATE...WHICH IS BENEATH THE CORE OF A
COLD POOL ALOFT. THESE CLOUDS WILL TRY TO ROTATE EAST INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE DATA...ESPECIALLY WITHIN
THE 3.9 MICRON AND 11.7 MICRON CHANNELS...SHOWING PLENTY OF BREAKS
BETWEEN THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND THOSE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 20S...
SOME AREAS COULD FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING IF THE CLEARING CAN STAY
IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH. WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WELL AWAY FROM
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

GIVEN THESE FACTORS...KEPT THE FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN CT AND NORTHWEST RI. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
TRENDS. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS WARNING COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING IF TOO MANY CLOUDS LINGER OVER THE WARNING AREA.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK...THOUGH DID MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD AIR AT SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB...AS WELL
AS SOME LIFT IN THIS LAYER. EXPECT CLOUDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET
BUT NOT COMPLETELY GOING AWAY. WEST WINDS WILL BRING AIR IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.

CLOUDS AND LINGERING WIND WILL INTERFERE WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT
OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONGLY SHELTERED SPOTS. HOWEVER...AIR TEMPS AT
OR A LITTLE BELOW 32F ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON HAS STARTED IN CT-RI AS WELL
AS IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN
AT LEAST 50 PERCENT OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CT. FREEZING
TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST RI. EXPECTED COVERAGE IS
LESS IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING
FOR HARTFORD-TOLLAND-WINDHAM COUNTIES IN CT AND WESTERN
PROVIDENCE-WESTERN KENT COUNTIES IN RI FOR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. IN THE RI PORTION...OUR EXPECTATION IS MOSTLY TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE SCITUATE RESERVOIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP.
SHOWER/SPRINKLE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. IT/S STILL
UNSTABLE ALOFT BUT LACKING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO
ORGANIZE CONVECTION. THE MIXED LAYER REACHES NEAR 800 MB AGAIN
WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE LAYER. TEMPS NEAR THE TOP OF THE
LAYER WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND SO WE EXPECT MAX SFC TEMPS
EITHER SIDE OF 50...PERHAPS MID 50S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST BUT COLD POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY
FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO LESS COLD. THIS
LEAVES LESS ROOM FOR ANY ADDITIONAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN CT. THIS
STATUS WILL BE REEVALUATED BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
* BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH ONSHORE WINDS MON INTO TUE
* LOW CONFIDENCE FOR COASTAL SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48
WITH CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AND WESTERN ONTARIO...RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND
ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. 12Z MODEL
SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND. THE LOW TRIES TO
SHIFT E SUNDAY...ONLY TO ROTATE BACK TOWARD THE REGION AND
BECOMING E-W ORIENTED. THIS WILL PINCH THE WESTERN TROUGH INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO AT FIRST...THEN SEND ENERGY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WITH A MIGRATING CUTOFF H5 LOW.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD DIVERGE WITH
THEIR HANDLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LENDING TO LOWERED
CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY WITH THE FORECAST...THOUGH THE 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF TRY TO WORK THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTO THE LOWER TO
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY AROUND TUESDAY. FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE RATHER WIDE SOLUTIONS MAINLY DUE TO
SPLIT PATTERN ON THE E COAST AND HANDLING PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF
POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A COASTAL LOW
TRIES TO TAKE SHAPE SOMEWHERE FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE SE U.S.
COAST WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY.

LEANED TOWARD BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE WHICH GAVE GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
BEYOND MONDAY...LEANED TOWARD ENSEMBLES WHICH WERE A BIT MORE
STABLE WITH THEIR POSITIONS AND TRACKS OF THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. THIS WAS CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG H5 CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH IT LOOKS TO PINWHEEL AS IT TRIES TO
BECOME E-W ORIENTED AND RETROGRADE BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. WHILE
THERE IS ONLY WEAK SURFACE FEATURES...THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
WILL KEEP SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DEVELOPING. LOOKS LIKE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS OF MA.

AM NOTING RATHER STRONG LOW PRES THAT WILL PASS S OF THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND...A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT WORKED OUT OF THE DESERT SW
FROM THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGHING. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP MOST
OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE REGION.

EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH DAYS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SUN EARLY
BEFORE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CLOUDS DEVELOP. HOWEVER...IF A
FEW BREAKS OF SUN HANG INTO THE AFTERNOON...A FEW LOCATIONS MIGHT
REACH 60. WITH LIGHT PRES GRADIENT...SEA BREEZES MAY ALSO DEVELOP
MAINLY ALONG E COASTAL AREAS BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MODELS BEGIN DO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. AM NOTING THE NE UPPER LOW RETURNS TO SIT AND SPIN
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ITS ORIENTATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
SHIFT TO N-NE OVER TIME...WHICH WILL ALLOW MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK ONSHORE. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME POTENT SHORT WAVES
SPINNING IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING
HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS...LOOKS LIKE ON THE ORDER OF 0.1 TO 0.25
INCHES FROM 12Z MON TO 00Z WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO DIVERGE...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TWO SYSTEMS TO PONDER UPON...FIRST THE
CUTOFF SITTING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HOW THIS WILL TRACK OFFSHORE.
THE SECOND IS THE CUTOFF LOW THAT WORKS E ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM OUT OF THE DESERT SW. FOR NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WED/WED
NIGHT. BIG QUESTION IS ON THURSDAY...WHETHER THE NE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY AND WHETHER LOW PRES THAT LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SE U.S. WILL EITHER MOVE E OR TRY TO WORK UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO HAPPEN UNTIL BEYOND THURSDAY.

AT THIS POINT...KEPT PERSISTENCE GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY. W-NW WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. AS WITH TODAY...CONDITIONS
MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS
COULD LOWER TO MVFR QUICKLY IN A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH AROUND SUNSET EACH DAY. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. WEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR
25 KT EARLY AND 15-20 KNOTS LATE. SEAS AT 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND RI WATERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS. A FEW SPOTS MAY
APPROACH 25 KNOTS...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND. SEAS LINGER
AT 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ON THOSE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL LINGER BETWEEN 4-5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT W WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT SAT/SAT NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS...THEN WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. E SWELLS WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SEAS INCREASING TO AROUND 5-6 FT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS GENERALLY N-NE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY UP TO 25 KT
ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT...HIGHEST ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WAS MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS COMBINED WITH
TIDAL INFLUENCES AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. THE RIVER
NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS UNDER STRONG TIDAL INFLUENCE. AS A RESULT...
THE RIVER IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT HIGH TIDE AND NEAR FLOOD STAGE
AT LOW TIDE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TREND LOWER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
CYCLES...WITH A HIGH TIDE CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/BELK/EVT
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240230
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1030 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FINALLY PUSHING OFF THE COAST TOWARD THE
MARITIMES THIS EVENING. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE WERE CROSSING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...WITH ONLY
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL BEING REPORTED. FARTHER
WEST...LAKE-EFFECT SNOW WAS STAYING MAINLY WEST OF THE SPINE OF
THE BERKSHIRES.

CLOUDS REMAIN THE KEY TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE
ABUNDANT CLOUDS ACROSS NY STATE...WHICH IS BENEATH THE CORE OF A
COLD POOL ALOFT. THESE CLOUDS WILL TRY TO ROTATE EAST INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE DATA...ESPECIALLY WITHIN
THE 3.9 MICRON AND 11.7 MICRON CHANNELS...SHOWING PLENTY OF BREAKS
BETWEEN THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND THOSE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 20S...
SOME AREAS COULD FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING IF THE CLEARING CAN STAY
IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH. WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WELL AWAY FROM
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

GIVEN THESE FACTORS...KEPT THE FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN CT AND NORTHWEST RI. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
TRENDS. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS WARNING COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING IF TOO MANY CLOUDS LINGER OVER THE WARNING AREA.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK...THOUGH DID MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD AIR AT SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB...AS WELL
AS SOME LIFT IN THIS LAYER. EXPECT CLOUDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET
BUT NOT COMPLETELY GOING AWAY. WEST WINDS WILL BRING AIR IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.

CLOUDS AND LINGERING WIND WILL INTERFERE WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT
OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONGLY SHELTERED SPOTS. HOWEVER...AIR TEMPS AT
OR A LITTLE BELOW 32F ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON HAS STARTED IN CT-RI AS WELL
AS IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN
AT LEAST 50 PERCENT OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CT. FREEZING
TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST RI. EXPECTED COVERAGE IS
LESS IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING
FOR HARTFORD-TOLLAND-WINDHAM COUNTIES IN CT AND WESTERN
PROVIDENCE-WESTERN KENT COUNTIES IN RI FOR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. IN THE RI PORTION...OUR EXPECTATION IS MOSTLY TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE SCITUATE RESERVOIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP.
SHOWER/SPRINKLE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. IT/S STILL
UNSTABLE ALOFT BUT LACKING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO
ORGANIZE CONVECTION. THE MIXED LAYER REACHES NEAR 800 MB AGAIN
WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE LAYER. TEMPS NEAR THE TOP OF THE
LAYER WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND SO WE EXPECT MAX SFC TEMPS
EITHER SIDE OF 50...PERHAPS MID 50S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST BUT COLD POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY
FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO LESS COLD. THIS
LEAVES LESS ROOM FOR ANY ADDITIONAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN CT. THIS
STATUS WILL BE REEVALUATED BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
* BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH ONSHORE WINDS MON INTO TUE
* LOW CONFIDENCE FOR COASTAL SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48
WITH CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AND WESTERN ONTARIO...RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND
ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. 12Z MODEL
SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND. THE LOW TRIES TO
SHIFT E SUNDAY...ONLY TO ROTATE BACK TOWARD THE REGION AND
BECOMING E-W ORIENTED. THIS WILL PINCH THE WESTERN TROUGH INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO AT FIRST...THEN SEND ENERGY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WITH A MIGRATING CUTOFF H5 LOW.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD DIVERGE WITH
THEIR HANDLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LENDING TO LOWERED
CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY WITH THE FORECAST...THOUGH THE 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF TRY TO WORK THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTO THE LOWER TO
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY AROUND TUESDAY. FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE RATHER WIDE SOLUTIONS MAINLY DUE TO
SPLIT PATTERN ON THE E COAST AND HANDLING PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF
POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A COASTAL LOW
TRIES TO TAKE SHAPE SOMEWHERE FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE SE U.S.
COAST WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY.

LEANED TOWARD BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE WHICH GAVE GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
BEYOND MONDAY...LEANED TOWARD ENSEMBLES WHICH WERE A BIT MORE
STABLE WITH THEIR POSITIONS AND TRACKS OF THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. THIS WAS CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG H5 CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH IT LOOKS TO PINWHEEL AS IT TRIES TO
BECOME E-W ORIENTED AND RETROGRADE BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. WHILE
THERE IS ONLY WEAK SURFACE FEATURES...THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
WILL KEEP SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DEVELOPING. LOOKS LIKE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS OF MA.

AM NOTING RATHER STRONG LOW PRES THAT WILL PASS S OF THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND...A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT WORKED OUT OF THE DESERT SW
FROM THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGHING. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP MOST
OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE REGION.

EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH DAYS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SUN EARLY
BEFORE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CLOUDS DEVELOP. HOWEVER...IF A
FEW BREAKS OF SUN HANG INTO THE AFTERNOON...A FEW LOCATIONS MIGHT
REACH 60. WITH LIGHT PRES GRADIENT...SEA BREEZES MAY ALSO DEVELOP
MAINLY ALONG E COASTAL AREAS BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MODELS BEGIN DO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. AM NOTING THE NE UPPER LOW RETURNS TO SIT AND SPIN
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ITS ORIENTATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
SHIFT TO N-NE OVER TIME...WHICH WILL ALLOW MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK ONSHORE. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME POTENT SHORT WAVES
SPINNING IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING
HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS...LOOKS LIKE ON THE ORDER OF 0.1 TO 0.25
INCHES FROM 12Z MON TO 00Z WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO DIVERGE...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TWO SYSTEMS TO PONDER UPON...FIRST THE
CUTOFF SITTING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HOW THIS WILL TRACK OFFSHORE.
THE SECOND IS THE CUTOFF LOW THAT WORKS E ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM OUT OF THE DESERT SW. FOR NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WED/WED
NIGHT. BIG QUESTION IS ON THURSDAY...WHETHER THE NE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY AND WHETHER LOW PRES THAT LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SE U.S. WILL EITHER MOVE E OR TRY TO WORK UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO HAPPEN UNTIL BEYOND THURSDAY.

AT THIS POINT...KEPT PERSISTENCE GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY. W-NW WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. AS WITH TODAY...CONDITIONS
MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS
COULD LOWER TO MVFR QUICKLY IN A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH AROUND SUNSET EACH DAY. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. WEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR
25 KT EARLY AND 15-20 KNOTS LATE. SEAS AT 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND RI WATERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS. A FEW SPOTS MAY
APPROACH 25 KNOTS...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND. SEAS LINGER
AT 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ON THOSE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL LINGER BETWEEN 4-5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT W WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT SAT/SAT NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS...THEN WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. E SWELLS WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SEAS INCREASING TO AROUND 5-6 FT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS GENERALLY N-NE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY UP TO 25 KT
ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT...HIGHEST ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WAS MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS COMBINED WITH
TIDAL INFLUENCES AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. THE RIVER
NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS UNDER STRONG TIDAL INFLUENCE. AS A RESULT...
THE RIVER IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT HIGH TIDE AND NEAR FLOOD STAGE
AT LOW TIDE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TREND LOWER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
CYCLES...WITH A HIGH TIDE CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/BELK/EVT
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240230
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1030 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FINALLY PUSHING OFF THE COAST TOWARD THE
MARITIMES THIS EVENING. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE WERE CROSSING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...WITH ONLY
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL BEING REPORTED. FARTHER
WEST...LAKE-EFFECT SNOW WAS STAYING MAINLY WEST OF THE SPINE OF
THE BERKSHIRES.

CLOUDS REMAIN THE KEY TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE
ABUNDANT CLOUDS ACROSS NY STATE...WHICH IS BENEATH THE CORE OF A
COLD POOL ALOFT. THESE CLOUDS WILL TRY TO ROTATE EAST INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE DATA...ESPECIALLY WITHIN
THE 3.9 MICRON AND 11.7 MICRON CHANNELS...SHOWING PLENTY OF BREAKS
BETWEEN THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND THOSE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 20S...
SOME AREAS COULD FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING IF THE CLEARING CAN STAY
IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH. WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WELL AWAY FROM
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

GIVEN THESE FACTORS...KEPT THE FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN CT AND NORTHWEST RI. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
TRENDS. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS WARNING COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING IF TOO MANY CLOUDS LINGER OVER THE WARNING AREA.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK...THOUGH DID MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD AIR AT SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB...AS WELL
AS SOME LIFT IN THIS LAYER. EXPECT CLOUDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET
BUT NOT COMPLETELY GOING AWAY. WEST WINDS WILL BRING AIR IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.

CLOUDS AND LINGERING WIND WILL INTERFERE WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT
OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONGLY SHELTERED SPOTS. HOWEVER...AIR TEMPS AT
OR A LITTLE BELOW 32F ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON HAS STARTED IN CT-RI AS WELL
AS IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN
AT LEAST 50 PERCENT OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CT. FREEZING
TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST RI. EXPECTED COVERAGE IS
LESS IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING
FOR HARTFORD-TOLLAND-WINDHAM COUNTIES IN CT AND WESTERN
PROVIDENCE-WESTERN KENT COUNTIES IN RI FOR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. IN THE RI PORTION...OUR EXPECTATION IS MOSTLY TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE SCITUATE RESERVOIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP.
SHOWER/SPRINKLE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. IT/S STILL
UNSTABLE ALOFT BUT LACKING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO
ORGANIZE CONVECTION. THE MIXED LAYER REACHES NEAR 800 MB AGAIN
WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE LAYER. TEMPS NEAR THE TOP OF THE
LAYER WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND SO WE EXPECT MAX SFC TEMPS
EITHER SIDE OF 50...PERHAPS MID 50S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST BUT COLD POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY
FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO LESS COLD. THIS
LEAVES LESS ROOM FOR ANY ADDITIONAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN CT. THIS
STATUS WILL BE REEVALUATED BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
* BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH ONSHORE WINDS MON INTO TUE
* LOW CONFIDENCE FOR COASTAL SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48
WITH CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AND WESTERN ONTARIO...RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND
ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. 12Z MODEL
SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND. THE LOW TRIES TO
SHIFT E SUNDAY...ONLY TO ROTATE BACK TOWARD THE REGION AND
BECOMING E-W ORIENTED. THIS WILL PINCH THE WESTERN TROUGH INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO AT FIRST...THEN SEND ENERGY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WITH A MIGRATING CUTOFF H5 LOW.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD DIVERGE WITH
THEIR HANDLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LENDING TO LOWERED
CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY WITH THE FORECAST...THOUGH THE 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF TRY TO WORK THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTO THE LOWER TO
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY AROUND TUESDAY. FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE RATHER WIDE SOLUTIONS MAINLY DUE TO
SPLIT PATTERN ON THE E COAST AND HANDLING PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF
POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A COASTAL LOW
TRIES TO TAKE SHAPE SOMEWHERE FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE SE U.S.
COAST WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY.

LEANED TOWARD BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE WHICH GAVE GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
BEYOND MONDAY...LEANED TOWARD ENSEMBLES WHICH WERE A BIT MORE
STABLE WITH THEIR POSITIONS AND TRACKS OF THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. THIS WAS CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG H5 CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH IT LOOKS TO PINWHEEL AS IT TRIES TO
BECOME E-W ORIENTED AND RETROGRADE BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. WHILE
THERE IS ONLY WEAK SURFACE FEATURES...THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
WILL KEEP SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DEVELOPING. LOOKS LIKE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS OF MA.

AM NOTING RATHER STRONG LOW PRES THAT WILL PASS S OF THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND...A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT WORKED OUT OF THE DESERT SW
FROM THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGHING. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP MOST
OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE REGION.

EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH DAYS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SUN EARLY
BEFORE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CLOUDS DEVELOP. HOWEVER...IF A
FEW BREAKS OF SUN HANG INTO THE AFTERNOON...A FEW LOCATIONS MIGHT
REACH 60. WITH LIGHT PRES GRADIENT...SEA BREEZES MAY ALSO DEVELOP
MAINLY ALONG E COASTAL AREAS BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MODELS BEGIN DO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. AM NOTING THE NE UPPER LOW RETURNS TO SIT AND SPIN
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ITS ORIENTATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
SHIFT TO N-NE OVER TIME...WHICH WILL ALLOW MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK ONSHORE. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME POTENT SHORT WAVES
SPINNING IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING
HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS...LOOKS LIKE ON THE ORDER OF 0.1 TO 0.25
INCHES FROM 12Z MON TO 00Z WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO DIVERGE...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TWO SYSTEMS TO PONDER UPON...FIRST THE
CUTOFF SITTING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HOW THIS WILL TRACK OFFSHORE.
THE SECOND IS THE CUTOFF LOW THAT WORKS E ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM OUT OF THE DESERT SW. FOR NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WED/WED
NIGHT. BIG QUESTION IS ON THURSDAY...WHETHER THE NE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY AND WHETHER LOW PRES THAT LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SE U.S. WILL EITHER MOVE E OR TRY TO WORK UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO HAPPEN UNTIL BEYOND THURSDAY.

AT THIS POINT...KEPT PERSISTENCE GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY. W-NW WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. AS WITH TODAY...CONDITIONS
MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS
COULD LOWER TO MVFR QUICKLY IN A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH AROUND SUNSET EACH DAY. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. WEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR
25 KT EARLY AND 15-20 KNOTS LATE. SEAS AT 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND RI WATERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS. A FEW SPOTS MAY
APPROACH 25 KNOTS...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND. SEAS LINGER
AT 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ON THOSE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL LINGER BETWEEN 4-5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT W WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT SAT/SAT NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS...THEN WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. E SWELLS WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SEAS INCREASING TO AROUND 5-6 FT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS GENERALLY N-NE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY UP TO 25 KT
ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT...HIGHEST ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WAS MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS COMBINED WITH
TIDAL INFLUENCES AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. THE RIVER
NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS UNDER STRONG TIDAL INFLUENCE. AS A RESULT...
THE RIVER IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT HIGH TIDE AND NEAR FLOOD STAGE
AT LOW TIDE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TREND LOWER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
CYCLES...WITH A HIGH TIDE CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/BELK/EVT
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240230
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1030 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FINALLY PUSHING OFF THE COAST TOWARD THE
MARITIMES THIS EVENING. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE WERE CROSSING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...WITH ONLY
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL BEING REPORTED. FARTHER
WEST...LAKE-EFFECT SNOW WAS STAYING MAINLY WEST OF THE SPINE OF
THE BERKSHIRES.

CLOUDS REMAIN THE KEY TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE
ABUNDANT CLOUDS ACROSS NY STATE...WHICH IS BENEATH THE CORE OF A
COLD POOL ALOFT. THESE CLOUDS WILL TRY TO ROTATE EAST INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE DATA...ESPECIALLY WITHIN
THE 3.9 MICRON AND 11.7 MICRON CHANNELS...SHOWING PLENTY OF BREAKS
BETWEEN THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND THOSE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 20S...
SOME AREAS COULD FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING IF THE CLEARING CAN STAY
IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH. WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WELL AWAY FROM
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

GIVEN THESE FACTORS...KEPT THE FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN CT AND NORTHWEST RI. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
TRENDS. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS WARNING COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING IF TOO MANY CLOUDS LINGER OVER THE WARNING AREA.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK...THOUGH DID MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD AIR AT SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB...AS WELL
AS SOME LIFT IN THIS LAYER. EXPECT CLOUDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET
BUT NOT COMPLETELY GOING AWAY. WEST WINDS WILL BRING AIR IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.

CLOUDS AND LINGERING WIND WILL INTERFERE WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT
OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONGLY SHELTERED SPOTS. HOWEVER...AIR TEMPS AT
OR A LITTLE BELOW 32F ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON HAS STARTED IN CT-RI AS WELL
AS IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN
AT LEAST 50 PERCENT OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CT. FREEZING
TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST RI. EXPECTED COVERAGE IS
LESS IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING
FOR HARTFORD-TOLLAND-WINDHAM COUNTIES IN CT AND WESTERN
PROVIDENCE-WESTERN KENT COUNTIES IN RI FOR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. IN THE RI PORTION...OUR EXPECTATION IS MOSTLY TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE SCITUATE RESERVOIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP.
SHOWER/SPRINKLE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. IT/S STILL
UNSTABLE ALOFT BUT LACKING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO
ORGANIZE CONVECTION. THE MIXED LAYER REACHES NEAR 800 MB AGAIN
WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE LAYER. TEMPS NEAR THE TOP OF THE
LAYER WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND SO WE EXPECT MAX SFC TEMPS
EITHER SIDE OF 50...PERHAPS MID 50S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST BUT COLD POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY
FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO LESS COLD. THIS
LEAVES LESS ROOM FOR ANY ADDITIONAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN CT. THIS
STATUS WILL BE REEVALUATED BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
* BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH ONSHORE WINDS MON INTO TUE
* LOW CONFIDENCE FOR COASTAL SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48
WITH CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AND WESTERN ONTARIO...RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND
ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. 12Z MODEL
SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND. THE LOW TRIES TO
SHIFT E SUNDAY...ONLY TO ROTATE BACK TOWARD THE REGION AND
BECOMING E-W ORIENTED. THIS WILL PINCH THE WESTERN TROUGH INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO AT FIRST...THEN SEND ENERGY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WITH A MIGRATING CUTOFF H5 LOW.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD DIVERGE WITH
THEIR HANDLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LENDING TO LOWERED
CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY WITH THE FORECAST...THOUGH THE 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF TRY TO WORK THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTO THE LOWER TO
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY AROUND TUESDAY. FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE RATHER WIDE SOLUTIONS MAINLY DUE TO
SPLIT PATTERN ON THE E COAST AND HANDLING PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF
POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A COASTAL LOW
TRIES TO TAKE SHAPE SOMEWHERE FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE SE U.S.
COAST WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY.

LEANED TOWARD BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE WHICH GAVE GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
BEYOND MONDAY...LEANED TOWARD ENSEMBLES WHICH WERE A BIT MORE
STABLE WITH THEIR POSITIONS AND TRACKS OF THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. THIS WAS CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG H5 CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH IT LOOKS TO PINWHEEL AS IT TRIES TO
BECOME E-W ORIENTED AND RETROGRADE BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. WHILE
THERE IS ONLY WEAK SURFACE FEATURES...THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
WILL KEEP SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DEVELOPING. LOOKS LIKE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS OF MA.

AM NOTING RATHER STRONG LOW PRES THAT WILL PASS S OF THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND...A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT WORKED OUT OF THE DESERT SW
FROM THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGHING. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP MOST
OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE REGION.

EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH DAYS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SUN EARLY
BEFORE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CLOUDS DEVELOP. HOWEVER...IF A
FEW BREAKS OF SUN HANG INTO THE AFTERNOON...A FEW LOCATIONS MIGHT
REACH 60. WITH LIGHT PRES GRADIENT...SEA BREEZES MAY ALSO DEVELOP
MAINLY ALONG E COASTAL AREAS BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MODELS BEGIN DO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. AM NOTING THE NE UPPER LOW RETURNS TO SIT AND SPIN
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ITS ORIENTATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
SHIFT TO N-NE OVER TIME...WHICH WILL ALLOW MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK ONSHORE. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME POTENT SHORT WAVES
SPINNING IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING
HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS...LOOKS LIKE ON THE ORDER OF 0.1 TO 0.25
INCHES FROM 12Z MON TO 00Z WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO DIVERGE...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TWO SYSTEMS TO PONDER UPON...FIRST THE
CUTOFF SITTING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HOW THIS WILL TRACK OFFSHORE.
THE SECOND IS THE CUTOFF LOW THAT WORKS E ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM OUT OF THE DESERT SW. FOR NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WED/WED
NIGHT. BIG QUESTION IS ON THURSDAY...WHETHER THE NE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY AND WHETHER LOW PRES THAT LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SE U.S. WILL EITHER MOVE E OR TRY TO WORK UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO HAPPEN UNTIL BEYOND THURSDAY.

AT THIS POINT...KEPT PERSISTENCE GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY. W-NW WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. AS WITH TODAY...CONDITIONS
MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS
COULD LOWER TO MVFR QUICKLY IN A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH AROUND SUNSET EACH DAY. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. WEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR
25 KT EARLY AND 15-20 KNOTS LATE. SEAS AT 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND RI WATERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS. A FEW SPOTS MAY
APPROACH 25 KNOTS...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND. SEAS LINGER
AT 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ON THOSE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL LINGER BETWEEN 4-5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT W WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT SAT/SAT NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS...THEN WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. E SWELLS WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SEAS INCREASING TO AROUND 5-6 FT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS GENERALLY N-NE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY UP TO 25 KT
ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT...HIGHEST ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WAS MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS COMBINED WITH
TIDAL INFLUENCES AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. THE RIVER
NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS UNDER STRONG TIDAL INFLUENCE. AS A RESULT...
THE RIVER IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT HIGH TIDE AND NEAR FLOOD STAGE
AT LOW TIDE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TREND LOWER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
CYCLES...WITH A HIGH TIDE CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/BELK/EVT
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KGYX 240112
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
912 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE NORTHEAST AND
MARITIMES TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND PROVIDING COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORNINGS WILL SEE MORE
SUNSHINE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING MOST AFTERNOONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

9PM UPDATE... SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY COME TO AN END...ONLY ONES
REMAINING ARE OVER PENOBSCOT BAY. IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP A BIT
QUICKER.

615 PM UPDATE...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ITS WHEELS OVERHEAD.
WIDELY SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT OOZ BEFORE WINDING
DOWN. THE AREAS WHERE SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS NRN NH AND THE WRN ME MOUNTAINS...AND
POSSIBLY OVER THE MIDCOAST NORTHWARD UP THROUGH SOUTHERN SOMERSET
COUNTY. ELEWHERE...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE...THEN CLOUD
IN AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

PREVIOUSLY...

FORECAST BEGINNING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD HERE IN THE
NORTHEAST AS COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES. CUTOFF LOW WILL
REMAIN PARKED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING WITH JUST VARIABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH WITH SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH AND
LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY LOOKING LIKE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY WITH ANY MORNING SUNNY
BREAKS QUICKLY GIVING WAY TO CLOUDS AND MORE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY`S WITH
READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FRIDAY NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ANY SHOWERS WILL ALSO TAPER OFF DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB CLOSED LOW BECOMES SEPARATED FROM THE FLOW THIS WEEKEND
AND LINGERS OVER THE NERN CONUS AND ERN CANADA INTO NEXT WEEK...AS
BLOCKS SET UP DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ATLANTIC...AND UPSTREAM OVER
WRN NOAM. IN A SENSE...THIS MAKES THE FORECAST SIMPLE...AS IT WILL
BE COOL ENOUGH ALOFT TO GENERATE INSTABILITY SHRA EVEN GIVEN SMALL
AMTS OF SUN...WHICH WE SHOULD SEE MOST MORNINGS. SO DAYS START OFF
WITH SOME SUN...WITH SCT SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN SOME
CLEARING AFTER SUNSET. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING 2 POSSIBLE WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW THAT COULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA ON
SATURDAY...AND AGAIN ON MON NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE UNPREDICTABLE NATURE
OF TIMING THESE WAVES AROUND THE LOW...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
BEYOND SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE RUNNING 5-10 F BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE DAYS...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL AT
NIGHT...GIVEN PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND HIGHER LOW LVL MOISTURE. THE
12Z EURO TRIES TO BUILD A RIDGE BEHIND THE CLOSED LOW ON WED...AND
BACKED OFF TO SLT CHC POPS THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. VFR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WILL SEE PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS SAT THRU TUE...BUT
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. COULD SEE MORE OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AROUND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S FOR SEAS THROUGH 00Z.

LONG TERM...THE WATERS REMAIN QUIET SAT THRU MON...AS WEAK SFC LOW
MEANDERS AROUND NEAR THE WATERS. THE LOW WILL SHIFT EWD TUE...AND
S WINDS WILL INCREASE...NEARING SCA LVLS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOL DAMP WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 240112
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
912 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE NORTHEAST AND
MARITIMES TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND PROVIDING COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORNINGS WILL SEE MORE
SUNSHINE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING MOST AFTERNOONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

9PM UPDATE... SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY COME TO AN END...ONLY ONES
REMAINING ARE OVER PENOBSCOT BAY. IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP A BIT
QUICKER.

615 PM UPDATE...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ITS WHEELS OVERHEAD.
WIDELY SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT OOZ BEFORE WINDING
DOWN. THE AREAS WHERE SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS NRN NH AND THE WRN ME MOUNTAINS...AND
POSSIBLY OVER THE MIDCOAST NORTHWARD UP THROUGH SOUTHERN SOMERSET
COUNTY. ELEWHERE...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE...THEN CLOUD
IN AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

PREVIOUSLY...

FORECAST BEGINNING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD HERE IN THE
NORTHEAST AS COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES. CUTOFF LOW WILL
REMAIN PARKED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING WITH JUST VARIABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH WITH SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH AND
LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY LOOKING LIKE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY WITH ANY MORNING SUNNY
BREAKS QUICKLY GIVING WAY TO CLOUDS AND MORE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY`S WITH
READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FRIDAY NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ANY SHOWERS WILL ALSO TAPER OFF DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB CLOSED LOW BECOMES SEPARATED FROM THE FLOW THIS WEEKEND
AND LINGERS OVER THE NERN CONUS AND ERN CANADA INTO NEXT WEEK...AS
BLOCKS SET UP DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ATLANTIC...AND UPSTREAM OVER
WRN NOAM. IN A SENSE...THIS MAKES THE FORECAST SIMPLE...AS IT WILL
BE COOL ENOUGH ALOFT TO GENERATE INSTABILITY SHRA EVEN GIVEN SMALL
AMTS OF SUN...WHICH WE SHOULD SEE MOST MORNINGS. SO DAYS START OFF
WITH SOME SUN...WITH SCT SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN SOME
CLEARING AFTER SUNSET. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING 2 POSSIBLE WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW THAT COULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA ON
SATURDAY...AND AGAIN ON MON NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE UNPREDICTABLE NATURE
OF TIMING THESE WAVES AROUND THE LOW...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
BEYOND SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE RUNNING 5-10 F BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE DAYS...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL AT
NIGHT...GIVEN PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND HIGHER LOW LVL MOISTURE. THE
12Z EURO TRIES TO BUILD A RIDGE BEHIND THE CLOSED LOW ON WED...AND
BACKED OFF TO SLT CHC POPS THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. VFR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WILL SEE PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS SAT THRU TUE...BUT
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. COULD SEE MORE OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AROUND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S FOR SEAS THROUGH 00Z.

LONG TERM...THE WATERS REMAIN QUIET SAT THRU MON...AS WEAK SFC LOW
MEANDERS AROUND NEAR THE WATERS. THE LOW WILL SHIFT EWD TUE...AND
S WINDS WILL INCREASE...NEARING SCA LVLS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOL DAMP WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 240112
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
912 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE NORTHEAST AND
MARITIMES TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND PROVIDING COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORNINGS WILL SEE MORE
SUNSHINE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING MOST AFTERNOONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

9PM UPDATE... SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY COME TO AN END...ONLY ONES
REMAINING ARE OVER PENOBSCOT BAY. IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP A BIT
QUICKER.

615 PM UPDATE...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ITS WHEELS OVERHEAD.
WIDELY SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT OOZ BEFORE WINDING
DOWN. THE AREAS WHERE SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS NRN NH AND THE WRN ME MOUNTAINS...AND
POSSIBLY OVER THE MIDCOAST NORTHWARD UP THROUGH SOUTHERN SOMERSET
COUNTY. ELEWHERE...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE...THEN CLOUD
IN AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

PREVIOUSLY...

FORECAST BEGINNING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD HERE IN THE
NORTHEAST AS COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES. CUTOFF LOW WILL
REMAIN PARKED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING WITH JUST VARIABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH WITH SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH AND
LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY LOOKING LIKE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY WITH ANY MORNING SUNNY
BREAKS QUICKLY GIVING WAY TO CLOUDS AND MORE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY`S WITH
READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FRIDAY NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ANY SHOWERS WILL ALSO TAPER OFF DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB CLOSED LOW BECOMES SEPARATED FROM THE FLOW THIS WEEKEND
AND LINGERS OVER THE NERN CONUS AND ERN CANADA INTO NEXT WEEK...AS
BLOCKS SET UP DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ATLANTIC...AND UPSTREAM OVER
WRN NOAM. IN A SENSE...THIS MAKES THE FORECAST SIMPLE...AS IT WILL
BE COOL ENOUGH ALOFT TO GENERATE INSTABILITY SHRA EVEN GIVEN SMALL
AMTS OF SUN...WHICH WE SHOULD SEE MOST MORNINGS. SO DAYS START OFF
WITH SOME SUN...WITH SCT SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN SOME
CLEARING AFTER SUNSET. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING 2 POSSIBLE WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW THAT COULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA ON
SATURDAY...AND AGAIN ON MON NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE UNPREDICTABLE NATURE
OF TIMING THESE WAVES AROUND THE LOW...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
BEYOND SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE RUNNING 5-10 F BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE DAYS...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL AT
NIGHT...GIVEN PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND HIGHER LOW LVL MOISTURE. THE
12Z EURO TRIES TO BUILD A RIDGE BEHIND THE CLOSED LOW ON WED...AND
BACKED OFF TO SLT CHC POPS THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. VFR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WILL SEE PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS SAT THRU TUE...BUT
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. COULD SEE MORE OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AROUND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S FOR SEAS THROUGH 00Z.

LONG TERM...THE WATERS REMAIN QUIET SAT THRU MON...AS WEAK SFC LOW
MEANDERS AROUND NEAR THE WATERS. THE LOW WILL SHIFT EWD TUE...AND
S WINDS WILL INCREASE...NEARING SCA LVLS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOL DAMP WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240009
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
809 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

8 PM UPDATE...

LAST OF THE SHOWERS WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH WILL
DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A
COUPLE MORE BANDS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS CENTRAL NY STATE MAY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH E TO REACH THE
BERKSHIRES AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF FRANKLIN AND HAMPSHIRE
COUNTIES BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE AS WELL. INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE ZONES.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK...THOUGH DID MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM TEMPS/DEWPTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...
COLD AIR AT SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB...AS WELL
AS SOME LIFT IN THIS LAYER. EXPECT CLOUDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET
BUT NOT COMPLETELY GOING AWAY. WEST WINDS WILL BRING AIR IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.

CLOUDS AND LINGERING WIND WILL INTERFERE WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT
OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONGLY SHELTERED SPOTS. HOWEVER...AIR TEMPS AT
OR A LITTLE BELOW 32F ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON HAS STARTED IN CT-RI AS WELL
AS IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN
AT LEAST 50 PERCENT OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CT. FREEZING
TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST RI. EXPECTED COVERAGE IS
LESS IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING
FOR HARTFORD-TOLLAND-WINDHAM COUNTIES IN CT AND WESTERN
PROVIDENCE-WESTERN KENT COUNTIES IN RI FOR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. IN THE RI PORTION...OUR EXPECTATION IS MOSTLY TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE SCITUATE RESERVOIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP.
SHOWER/SPRINKLE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. IT/S STILL
UNSTABLE ALOFT BUT LACKING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO
ORGANIZE CONVECTION. THE MIXED LAYER REACHES NEAR 800 MB AGAIN
WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE LAYER. TEMPS NEAR THE TOP OF THE
LAYER WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND SO WE EXPECT MAX SFC TEMPS
EITHER SIDE OF 50...PERHAPS MID 50S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST BUT COLD POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY
FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO LESS COLD. THIS
LEAVES LESS ROOM FOR ANY ADDITIONAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN CT. THIS
STATUS WILL BE REEVALUATED BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
* BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH ONSHORE WINDS MON INTO TUE
* LOW CONFIDENCE FOR COASTAL SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48
WITH CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AND WESTERN ONTARIO...RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND
ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. 12Z MODEL
SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND. THE LOW TRIES TO
SHIFT E SUNDAY...ONLY TO ROTATE BACK TOWARD THE REGION AND
BECOMING E-W ORIENTED. THIS WILL PINCH THE WESTERN TROUGH INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO AT FIRST...THEN SEND ENERGY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WITH A MIGRATING CUTOFF H5 LOW.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD DIVERGE WITH
THEIR HANDLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LENDING TO LOWERED
CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY WITH THE FORECAST...THOUGH THE 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF TRY TO WORK THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTO THE LOWER TO
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY AROUND TUESDAY. FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE RATHER WIDE SOLUTIONS MAINLY DUE TO
SPLIT PATTERN ON THE E COAST AND HANDLING PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF
POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A COASTAL LOW
TRIES TO TAKE SHAPE SOMEWHERE FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE SE U.S.
COAST WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY.

LEANED TOWARD BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE WHICH GAVE GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
BEYOND MONDAY...LEANED TOWARD ENSEMBLES WHICH WERE A BIT MORE
STABLE WITH THEIR POSITIONS AND TRACKS OF THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. THIS WAS CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG H5 CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH IT LOOKS TO PINWHEEL AS IT TRIES TO
BECOME E-W ORIENTED AND RETROGRADE BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. WHILE
THERE IS ONLY WEAK SURFACE FEATURES...THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
WILL KEEP SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DEVELOPING. LOOKS LIKE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS OF MA.

AM NOTING RATHER STRONG LOW PRES THAT WILL PASS S OF THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND...A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT WORKED OUT OF THE DESERT SW
FROM THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGHING. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP MOST
OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE REGION.

EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH DAYS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SUN EARLY
BEFORE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CLOUDS DEVELOP. HOWEVER...IF A
FEW BREAKS OF SUN HANG INTO THE AFTERNOON...A FEW LOCATIONS MIGHT
REACH 60. WITH LIGHT PRES GRADIENT...SEA BREEZES MAY ALSO DEVELOP
MAINLY ALONG E COASTAL AREAS BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MODELS BEGIN DO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. AM NOTING THE NE UPPER LOW RETURNS TO SIT AND SPIN
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ITS ORIENTATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
SHIFT TO N-NE OVER TIME...WHICH WILL ALLOW MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK ONSHORE. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME POTENT SHORT WAVES
SPINNING IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING
HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS...LOOKS LIKE ON THE ORDER OF 0.1 TO 0.25
INCHES FROM 12Z MON TO 00Z WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO DIVERGE...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TWO SYSTEMS TO PONDER UPON...FIRST THE
CUTOFF SITTING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HOW THIS WILL TRACK OFFSHORE.
THE SECOND IS THE CUTOFF LOW THAT WORKS E ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM OUT OF THE DESERT SW. FOR NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WED/WED
NIGHT. BIG QUESTION IS ON THURSDAY...WHETHER THE NE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY AND WHETHER LOW PRES THAT LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SE U.S. WILL EITHER MOVE E OR TRY TO WORK UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO HAPPEN UNTIL BEYOND THURSDAY.

AT THIS POINT...KEPT PERSISTENCE GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY. W-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT THROUGH
AROUND 03Z THEN DIMINISHING.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. AS WITH TODAY...CONDITIONS
MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS
COULD LOWER TO MVFR QUICKLY IN A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH AROUND SUNSET EACH DAY. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. WEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25
KNOTS EARLY AND 15-20 KNOTS LATE. SEAS AT 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND RI WATERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THIS EVENING AND MOST WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS. A FEW SPOTS MAY
APPROACH 25 KNOTS...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND. SEAS LINGER
AT 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ON THOSE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL LINGER BETWEEN 4-5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT W WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT SAT/SAT NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS...THEN WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. E SWELLS WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SEAS INCREASING TO AROUND 5-6 FT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS GENERALLY N-NE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY UP TO 25 KT
ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT...HIGHEST ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WAS MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS COMBINED WITH
TIDAL INFLUENCES AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. THE RIVER
NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS UNDER STRONG TIDAL INFLUENCE. AS A
RESULT...THE RIVER IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT HIGH TIDE AND NEAR FLOOD
STAGE AT LOW TIDE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TREND LOWER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF CYCLES...WITH A HIGH TIDE CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
HYDROLOGY...WTB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240009
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
809 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

8 PM UPDATE...

LAST OF THE SHOWERS WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH WILL
DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A
COUPLE MORE BANDS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS CENTRAL NY STATE MAY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH E TO REACH THE
BERKSHIRES AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF FRANKLIN AND HAMPSHIRE
COUNTIES BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE AS WELL. INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE ZONES.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK...THOUGH DID MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM TEMPS/DEWPTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...
COLD AIR AT SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB...AS WELL
AS SOME LIFT IN THIS LAYER. EXPECT CLOUDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET
BUT NOT COMPLETELY GOING AWAY. WEST WINDS WILL BRING AIR IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.

CLOUDS AND LINGERING WIND WILL INTERFERE WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT
OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONGLY SHELTERED SPOTS. HOWEVER...AIR TEMPS AT
OR A LITTLE BELOW 32F ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON HAS STARTED IN CT-RI AS WELL
AS IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN
AT LEAST 50 PERCENT OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CT. FREEZING
TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST RI. EXPECTED COVERAGE IS
LESS IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING
FOR HARTFORD-TOLLAND-WINDHAM COUNTIES IN CT AND WESTERN
PROVIDENCE-WESTERN KENT COUNTIES IN RI FOR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. IN THE RI PORTION...OUR EXPECTATION IS MOSTLY TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE SCITUATE RESERVOIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP.
SHOWER/SPRINKLE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. IT/S STILL
UNSTABLE ALOFT BUT LACKING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO
ORGANIZE CONVECTION. THE MIXED LAYER REACHES NEAR 800 MB AGAIN
WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE LAYER. TEMPS NEAR THE TOP OF THE
LAYER WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND SO WE EXPECT MAX SFC TEMPS
EITHER SIDE OF 50...PERHAPS MID 50S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST BUT COLD POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY
FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO LESS COLD. THIS
LEAVES LESS ROOM FOR ANY ADDITIONAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN CT. THIS
STATUS WILL BE REEVALUATED BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
* BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH ONSHORE WINDS MON INTO TUE
* LOW CONFIDENCE FOR COASTAL SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48
WITH CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AND WESTERN ONTARIO...RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND
ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. 12Z MODEL
SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND. THE LOW TRIES TO
SHIFT E SUNDAY...ONLY TO ROTATE BACK TOWARD THE REGION AND
BECOMING E-W ORIENTED. THIS WILL PINCH THE WESTERN TROUGH INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO AT FIRST...THEN SEND ENERGY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WITH A MIGRATING CUTOFF H5 LOW.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD DIVERGE WITH
THEIR HANDLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LENDING TO LOWERED
CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY WITH THE FORECAST...THOUGH THE 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF TRY TO WORK THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTO THE LOWER TO
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY AROUND TUESDAY. FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE RATHER WIDE SOLUTIONS MAINLY DUE TO
SPLIT PATTERN ON THE E COAST AND HANDLING PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF
POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A COASTAL LOW
TRIES TO TAKE SHAPE SOMEWHERE FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE SE U.S.
COAST WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY.

LEANED TOWARD BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE WHICH GAVE GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
BEYOND MONDAY...LEANED TOWARD ENSEMBLES WHICH WERE A BIT MORE
STABLE WITH THEIR POSITIONS AND TRACKS OF THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. THIS WAS CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG H5 CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH IT LOOKS TO PINWHEEL AS IT TRIES TO
BECOME E-W ORIENTED AND RETROGRADE BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. WHILE
THERE IS ONLY WEAK SURFACE FEATURES...THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
WILL KEEP SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DEVELOPING. LOOKS LIKE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS OF MA.

AM NOTING RATHER STRONG LOW PRES THAT WILL PASS S OF THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND...A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT WORKED OUT OF THE DESERT SW
FROM THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGHING. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP MOST
OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE REGION.

EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH DAYS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SUN EARLY
BEFORE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CLOUDS DEVELOP. HOWEVER...IF A
FEW BREAKS OF SUN HANG INTO THE AFTERNOON...A FEW LOCATIONS MIGHT
REACH 60. WITH LIGHT PRES GRADIENT...SEA BREEZES MAY ALSO DEVELOP
MAINLY ALONG E COASTAL AREAS BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MODELS BEGIN DO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. AM NOTING THE NE UPPER LOW RETURNS TO SIT AND SPIN
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ITS ORIENTATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
SHIFT TO N-NE OVER TIME...WHICH WILL ALLOW MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK ONSHORE. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME POTENT SHORT WAVES
SPINNING IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING
HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS...LOOKS LIKE ON THE ORDER OF 0.1 TO 0.25
INCHES FROM 12Z MON TO 00Z WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO DIVERGE...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TWO SYSTEMS TO PONDER UPON...FIRST THE
CUTOFF SITTING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HOW THIS WILL TRACK OFFSHORE.
THE SECOND IS THE CUTOFF LOW THAT WORKS E ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM OUT OF THE DESERT SW. FOR NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WED/WED
NIGHT. BIG QUESTION IS ON THURSDAY...WHETHER THE NE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY AND WHETHER LOW PRES THAT LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SE U.S. WILL EITHER MOVE E OR TRY TO WORK UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO HAPPEN UNTIL BEYOND THURSDAY.

AT THIS POINT...KEPT PERSISTENCE GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY. W-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT THROUGH
AROUND 03Z THEN DIMINISHING.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. AS WITH TODAY...CONDITIONS
MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS
COULD LOWER TO MVFR QUICKLY IN A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH AROUND SUNSET EACH DAY. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. WEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25
KNOTS EARLY AND 15-20 KNOTS LATE. SEAS AT 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND RI WATERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THIS EVENING AND MOST WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS. A FEW SPOTS MAY
APPROACH 25 KNOTS...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND. SEAS LINGER
AT 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ON THOSE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL LINGER BETWEEN 4-5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT W WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT SAT/SAT NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS...THEN WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. E SWELLS WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SEAS INCREASING TO AROUND 5-6 FT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS GENERALLY N-NE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY UP TO 25 KT
ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT...HIGHEST ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WAS MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS COMBINED WITH
TIDAL INFLUENCES AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. THE RIVER
NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS UNDER STRONG TIDAL INFLUENCE. AS A
RESULT...THE RIVER IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT HIGH TIDE AND NEAR FLOOD
STAGE AT LOW TIDE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TREND LOWER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF CYCLES...WITH A HIGH TIDE CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
HYDROLOGY...WTB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240009
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
809 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

8 PM UPDATE...

LAST OF THE SHOWERS WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH WILL
DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A
COUPLE MORE BANDS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS CENTRAL NY STATE MAY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH E TO REACH THE
BERKSHIRES AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF FRANKLIN AND HAMPSHIRE
COUNTIES BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE AS WELL. INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE ZONES.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK...THOUGH DID MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM TEMPS/DEWPTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...
COLD AIR AT SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB...AS WELL
AS SOME LIFT IN THIS LAYER. EXPECT CLOUDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET
BUT NOT COMPLETELY GOING AWAY. WEST WINDS WILL BRING AIR IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.

CLOUDS AND LINGERING WIND WILL INTERFERE WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT
OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONGLY SHELTERED SPOTS. HOWEVER...AIR TEMPS AT
OR A LITTLE BELOW 32F ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON HAS STARTED IN CT-RI AS WELL
AS IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN
AT LEAST 50 PERCENT OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CT. FREEZING
TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST RI. EXPECTED COVERAGE IS
LESS IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING
FOR HARTFORD-TOLLAND-WINDHAM COUNTIES IN CT AND WESTERN
PROVIDENCE-WESTERN KENT COUNTIES IN RI FOR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. IN THE RI PORTION...OUR EXPECTATION IS MOSTLY TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE SCITUATE RESERVOIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP.
SHOWER/SPRINKLE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. IT/S STILL
UNSTABLE ALOFT BUT LACKING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO
ORGANIZE CONVECTION. THE MIXED LAYER REACHES NEAR 800 MB AGAIN
WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE LAYER. TEMPS NEAR THE TOP OF THE
LAYER WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND SO WE EXPECT MAX SFC TEMPS
EITHER SIDE OF 50...PERHAPS MID 50S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST BUT COLD POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY
FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO LESS COLD. THIS
LEAVES LESS ROOM FOR ANY ADDITIONAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN CT. THIS
STATUS WILL BE REEVALUATED BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
* BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH ONSHORE WINDS MON INTO TUE
* LOW CONFIDENCE FOR COASTAL SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48
WITH CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AND WESTERN ONTARIO...RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND
ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. 12Z MODEL
SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND. THE LOW TRIES TO
SHIFT E SUNDAY...ONLY TO ROTATE BACK TOWARD THE REGION AND
BECOMING E-W ORIENTED. THIS WILL PINCH THE WESTERN TROUGH INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO AT FIRST...THEN SEND ENERGY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WITH A MIGRATING CUTOFF H5 LOW.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD DIVERGE WITH
THEIR HANDLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LENDING TO LOWERED
CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY WITH THE FORECAST...THOUGH THE 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF TRY TO WORK THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTO THE LOWER TO
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY AROUND TUESDAY. FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE RATHER WIDE SOLUTIONS MAINLY DUE TO
SPLIT PATTERN ON THE E COAST AND HANDLING PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF
POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A COASTAL LOW
TRIES TO TAKE SHAPE SOMEWHERE FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE SE U.S.
COAST WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY.

LEANED TOWARD BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE WHICH GAVE GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
BEYOND MONDAY...LEANED TOWARD ENSEMBLES WHICH WERE A BIT MORE
STABLE WITH THEIR POSITIONS AND TRACKS OF THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. THIS WAS CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG H5 CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH IT LOOKS TO PINWHEEL AS IT TRIES TO
BECOME E-W ORIENTED AND RETROGRADE BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. WHILE
THERE IS ONLY WEAK SURFACE FEATURES...THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
WILL KEEP SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DEVELOPING. LOOKS LIKE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS OF MA.

AM NOTING RATHER STRONG LOW PRES THAT WILL PASS S OF THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND...A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT WORKED OUT OF THE DESERT SW
FROM THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGHING. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP MOST
OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE REGION.

EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH DAYS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SUN EARLY
BEFORE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CLOUDS DEVELOP. HOWEVER...IF A
FEW BREAKS OF SUN HANG INTO THE AFTERNOON...A FEW LOCATIONS MIGHT
REACH 60. WITH LIGHT PRES GRADIENT...SEA BREEZES MAY ALSO DEVELOP
MAINLY ALONG E COASTAL AREAS BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MODELS BEGIN DO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. AM NOTING THE NE UPPER LOW RETURNS TO SIT AND SPIN
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ITS ORIENTATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
SHIFT TO N-NE OVER TIME...WHICH WILL ALLOW MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK ONSHORE. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME POTENT SHORT WAVES
SPINNING IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING
HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS...LOOKS LIKE ON THE ORDER OF 0.1 TO 0.25
INCHES FROM 12Z MON TO 00Z WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO DIVERGE...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TWO SYSTEMS TO PONDER UPON...FIRST THE
CUTOFF SITTING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HOW THIS WILL TRACK OFFSHORE.
THE SECOND IS THE CUTOFF LOW THAT WORKS E ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM OUT OF THE DESERT SW. FOR NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WED/WED
NIGHT. BIG QUESTION IS ON THURSDAY...WHETHER THE NE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY AND WHETHER LOW PRES THAT LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SE U.S. WILL EITHER MOVE E OR TRY TO WORK UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO HAPPEN UNTIL BEYOND THURSDAY.

AT THIS POINT...KEPT PERSISTENCE GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY. W-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT THROUGH
AROUND 03Z THEN DIMINISHING.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. AS WITH TODAY...CONDITIONS
MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS
COULD LOWER TO MVFR QUICKLY IN A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH AROUND SUNSET EACH DAY. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. WEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25
KNOTS EARLY AND 15-20 KNOTS LATE. SEAS AT 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND RI WATERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THIS EVENING AND MOST WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS. A FEW SPOTS MAY
APPROACH 25 KNOTS...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND. SEAS LINGER
AT 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ON THOSE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL LINGER BETWEEN 4-5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT W WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT SAT/SAT NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS...THEN WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. E SWELLS WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SEAS INCREASING TO AROUND 5-6 FT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS GENERALLY N-NE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY UP TO 25 KT
ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT...HIGHEST ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WAS MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS COMBINED WITH
TIDAL INFLUENCES AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. THE RIVER
NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS UNDER STRONG TIDAL INFLUENCE. AS A
RESULT...THE RIVER IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT HIGH TIDE AND NEAR FLOOD
STAGE AT LOW TIDE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TREND LOWER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF CYCLES...WITH A HIGH TIDE CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
HYDROLOGY...WTB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 240009
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
809 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

8 PM UPDATE...

LAST OF THE SHOWERS WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH WILL
DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A
COUPLE MORE BANDS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS CENTRAL NY STATE MAY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH E TO REACH THE
BERKSHIRES AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF FRANKLIN AND HAMPSHIRE
COUNTIES BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE AS WELL. INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE ZONES.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK...THOUGH DID MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM TEMPS/DEWPTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...
COLD AIR AT SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB...AS WELL
AS SOME LIFT IN THIS LAYER. EXPECT CLOUDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET
BUT NOT COMPLETELY GOING AWAY. WEST WINDS WILL BRING AIR IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.

CLOUDS AND LINGERING WIND WILL INTERFERE WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT
OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONGLY SHELTERED SPOTS. HOWEVER...AIR TEMPS AT
OR A LITTLE BELOW 32F ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON HAS STARTED IN CT-RI AS WELL
AS IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN
AT LEAST 50 PERCENT OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CT. FREEZING
TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST RI. EXPECTED COVERAGE IS
LESS IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING
FOR HARTFORD-TOLLAND-WINDHAM COUNTIES IN CT AND WESTERN
PROVIDENCE-WESTERN KENT COUNTIES IN RI FOR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. IN THE RI PORTION...OUR EXPECTATION IS MOSTLY TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE SCITUATE RESERVOIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP.
SHOWER/SPRINKLE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. IT/S STILL
UNSTABLE ALOFT BUT LACKING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO
ORGANIZE CONVECTION. THE MIXED LAYER REACHES NEAR 800 MB AGAIN
WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE LAYER. TEMPS NEAR THE TOP OF THE
LAYER WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND SO WE EXPECT MAX SFC TEMPS
EITHER SIDE OF 50...PERHAPS MID 50S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST BUT COLD POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY
FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO LESS COLD. THIS
LEAVES LESS ROOM FOR ANY ADDITIONAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN CT. THIS
STATUS WILL BE REEVALUATED BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
* BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH ONSHORE WINDS MON INTO TUE
* LOW CONFIDENCE FOR COASTAL SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48
WITH CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AND WESTERN ONTARIO...RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND
ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. 12Z MODEL
SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND. THE LOW TRIES TO
SHIFT E SUNDAY...ONLY TO ROTATE BACK TOWARD THE REGION AND
BECOMING E-W ORIENTED. THIS WILL PINCH THE WESTERN TROUGH INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO AT FIRST...THEN SEND ENERGY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WITH A MIGRATING CUTOFF H5 LOW.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD DIVERGE WITH
THEIR HANDLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LENDING TO LOWERED
CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY WITH THE FORECAST...THOUGH THE 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF TRY TO WORK THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTO THE LOWER TO
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY AROUND TUESDAY. FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE RATHER WIDE SOLUTIONS MAINLY DUE TO
SPLIT PATTERN ON THE E COAST AND HANDLING PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF
POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A COASTAL LOW
TRIES TO TAKE SHAPE SOMEWHERE FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE SE U.S.
COAST WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY.

LEANED TOWARD BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE WHICH GAVE GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
BEYOND MONDAY...LEANED TOWARD ENSEMBLES WHICH WERE A BIT MORE
STABLE WITH THEIR POSITIONS AND TRACKS OF THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. THIS WAS CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG H5 CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH IT LOOKS TO PINWHEEL AS IT TRIES TO
BECOME E-W ORIENTED AND RETROGRADE BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. WHILE
THERE IS ONLY WEAK SURFACE FEATURES...THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
WILL KEEP SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DEVELOPING. LOOKS LIKE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS OF MA.

AM NOTING RATHER STRONG LOW PRES THAT WILL PASS S OF THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND...A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT WORKED OUT OF THE DESERT SW
FROM THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGHING. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP MOST
OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE REGION.

EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH DAYS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SUN EARLY
BEFORE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CLOUDS DEVELOP. HOWEVER...IF A
FEW BREAKS OF SUN HANG INTO THE AFTERNOON...A FEW LOCATIONS MIGHT
REACH 60. WITH LIGHT PRES GRADIENT...SEA BREEZES MAY ALSO DEVELOP
MAINLY ALONG E COASTAL AREAS BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MODELS BEGIN DO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. AM NOTING THE NE UPPER LOW RETURNS TO SIT AND SPIN
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ITS ORIENTATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
SHIFT TO N-NE OVER TIME...WHICH WILL ALLOW MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK ONSHORE. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME POTENT SHORT WAVES
SPINNING IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING
HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS...LOOKS LIKE ON THE ORDER OF 0.1 TO 0.25
INCHES FROM 12Z MON TO 00Z WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO DIVERGE...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TWO SYSTEMS TO PONDER UPON...FIRST THE
CUTOFF SITTING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HOW THIS WILL TRACK OFFSHORE.
THE SECOND IS THE CUTOFF LOW THAT WORKS E ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM OUT OF THE DESERT SW. FOR NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WED/WED
NIGHT. BIG QUESTION IS ON THURSDAY...WHETHER THE NE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY AND WHETHER LOW PRES THAT LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SE U.S. WILL EITHER MOVE E OR TRY TO WORK UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO HAPPEN UNTIL BEYOND THURSDAY.

AT THIS POINT...KEPT PERSISTENCE GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY. W-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT THROUGH
AROUND 03Z THEN DIMINISHING.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. AS WITH TODAY...CONDITIONS
MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS
COULD LOWER TO MVFR QUICKLY IN A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH AROUND SUNSET EACH DAY. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. WEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25
KNOTS EARLY AND 15-20 KNOTS LATE. SEAS AT 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND RI WATERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THIS EVENING AND MOST WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS. A FEW SPOTS MAY
APPROACH 25 KNOTS...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND. SEAS LINGER
AT 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ON THOSE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL LINGER BETWEEN 4-5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT W WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT SAT/SAT NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS...THEN WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. E SWELLS WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SEAS INCREASING TO AROUND 5-6 FT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS GENERALLY N-NE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY UP TO 25 KT
ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT...HIGHEST ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WAS MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS COMBINED WITH
TIDAL INFLUENCES AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. THE RIVER
NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS UNDER STRONG TIDAL INFLUENCE. AS A
RESULT...THE RIVER IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT HIGH TIDE AND NEAR FLOOD
STAGE AT LOW TIDE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TREND LOWER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF CYCLES...WITH A HIGH TIDE CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
HYDROLOGY...WTB



000
FXUS61 KGYX 232210
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
610 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE NORTHEAST AND
MARITIMES TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND PROVIDING COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORNINGS WILL SEE MORE
SUNSHINE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING MOST AFTERNOONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
615 PM UPDATE...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ITS WHEELS OVERHEAD.
WIDELY SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT OOZ BEFORE WINDING
DOWN. THE AREAS WHERE SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS NRN NH AND THE WRN ME MOUNTAINS...AND
POSSIBLY OVER THE MIDCOAST NORTHWARD UP THROUGH SOUTHERN SOMERSET
COUNTY. ELEWHERE...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE...THEN CLOUD
IN AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

PREVIOUSLY...

FORECAST BEGINNING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD HERE IN THE
NORTHEAST AS COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES. CUTOFF LOW WILL
REMAIN PARKED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING WITH JUST VARIABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH WITH SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH AND
LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY LOOKING LIKE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY WITH ANY MORNING SUNNY
BREAKS QUICKLY GIVING WAY TO CLOUDS AND MORE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY`S WITH
READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FRIDAY NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ANY SHOWERS WILL ALSO TAPER OFF DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB CLOSED LOW BECOMES SEPARATED FROM THE FLOW THIS WEEKEND
AND LINGERS OVER THE NERN CONUS AND ERN CANADA INTO NEXT WEEK...AS
BLOCKS SET UP DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ATLANTIC...AND UPSTREAM OVER
WRN NOAM. IN A SENSE...THIS MAKES THE FORECAST SIMPLE...AS IT WILL
BE COOL ENOUGH ALOFT TO GENERATE INSTABILITY SHRA EVEN GIVEN SMALL
AMTS OF SUN...WHICH WE SHOULD SEE MOST MORNINGS. SO DAYS START OFF
WITH SOME SUN...WITH SCT SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN SOME
CLEARING AFTER SUNSET. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING 2 POSSIBLE WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW THAT COULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA ON
SATURDAY...AND AGAIN ON MON NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE UNPREDICTABLENATURE
OF TIMING THESE WAVES AROUND THE LOW...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
BEYOND SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE RUNNING 5-10 F BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE DAYS...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL AT
NIGHT...GIVEN PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND HIGHER LOW LVL MOISTURE. THE
12Z EURO TRIES TO BUILD A RIDGE BEHIND THE CLOSED LOW ON WED...AND
BACKED OFF TO SLT CHC POPS THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. VFR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WILL SEE PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS SAT THRU TUE...BUT
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. COULD SEE MORE OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AROUND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S FOR SEAS THROUGH 00Z.

LONG TERM...THE WATERS REMAIN QUIET SAT THRU MON...AS WEAK SFC LOW
MEANDERS AROUND NEAR THE WATERS. THE LOW WILL SHIFT EWD TUE...AND
S WINDS WILL INCREASE...NEARING SCA LVLS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOL DAMP WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 232210
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
610 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE NORTHEAST AND
MARITIMES TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND PROVIDING COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORNINGS WILL SEE MORE
SUNSHINE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING MOST AFTERNOONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
615 PM UPDATE...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ITS WHEELS OVERHEAD.
WIDELY SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT OOZ BEFORE WINDING
DOWN. THE AREAS WHERE SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS NRN NH AND THE WRN ME MOUNTAINS...AND
POSSIBLY OVER THE MIDCOAST NORTHWARD UP THROUGH SOUTHERN SOMERSET
COUNTY. ELEWHERE...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE...THEN CLOUD
IN AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

PREVIOUSLY...

FORECAST BEGINNING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD HERE IN THE
NORTHEAST AS COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES. CUTOFF LOW WILL
REMAIN PARKED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING WITH JUST VARIABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH WITH SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH AND
LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY LOOKING LIKE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY WITH ANY MORNING SUNNY
BREAKS QUICKLY GIVING WAY TO CLOUDS AND MORE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY`S WITH
READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FRIDAY NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ANY SHOWERS WILL ALSO TAPER OFF DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB CLOSED LOW BECOMES SEPARATED FROM THE FLOW THIS WEEKEND
AND LINGERS OVER THE NERN CONUS AND ERN CANADA INTO NEXT WEEK...AS
BLOCKS SET UP DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ATLANTIC...AND UPSTREAM OVER
WRN NOAM. IN A SENSE...THIS MAKES THE FORECAST SIMPLE...AS IT WILL
BE COOL ENOUGH ALOFT TO GENERATE INSTABILITY SHRA EVEN GIVEN SMALL
AMTS OF SUN...WHICH WE SHOULD SEE MOST MORNINGS. SO DAYS START OFF
WITH SOME SUN...WITH SCT SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN SOME
CLEARING AFTER SUNSET. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING 2 POSSIBLE WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW THAT COULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA ON
SATURDAY...AND AGAIN ON MON NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE UNPREDICTABLENATURE
OF TIMING THESE WAVES AROUND THE LOW...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
BEYOND SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE RUNNING 5-10 F BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE DAYS...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL AT
NIGHT...GIVEN PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND HIGHER LOW LVL MOISTURE. THE
12Z EURO TRIES TO BUILD A RIDGE BEHIND THE CLOSED LOW ON WED...AND
BACKED OFF TO SLT CHC POPS THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. VFR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WILL SEE PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS SAT THRU TUE...BUT
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. COULD SEE MORE OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AROUND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S FOR SEAS THROUGH 00Z.

LONG TERM...THE WATERS REMAIN QUIET SAT THRU MON...AS WEAK SFC LOW
MEANDERS AROUND NEAR THE WATERS. THE LOW WILL SHIFT EWD TUE...AND
S WINDS WILL INCREASE...NEARING SCA LVLS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOL DAMP WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KBOX 232111
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
511 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...
CLOSED UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL ARE IN POSITION OVER NEW ENGLAND.
THE COLD POOL IS PROVIDING AN UNSTABLE PROFILE THAT HAS GENERATED
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF GRAUPEL. ALSO
IN THE MIX IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS
GENERATED TWO OR MORE LINES OF SHOWERS AS IT MOVED ACROSS NEW
YORK...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AXIS IS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AROUND
8 PM. WE HAVE BUMPED POPS UP ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MASS AND NORTHERN CT DUE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH.

TONIGHT...
COLD AIR SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB...AS WELL AS
SOME LIFT IN THIS LAYER. EXPECT CLOUDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET
BUT NOT COMPLETELY GOING AWAY. WEST WINDS WILL BRING AIR IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.

CLOUDS AND LINGERING WIND WILL INTERFERE WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT
OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONGLY SHELTERED SPOTS. BUT AIR TEMPS AT OR A
LITTLE BELOW 32F ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON HAS STARTED IN CT-RI AS WELL AS
IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN
AT LEAST 50 PERCENT OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CT. FREEZING
TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST RI. EXPECTED COVERAGE IS
LESS IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING
FOR HARTFORD-TOLLAND-WINDHAM COUNTIES IN CT AND WESTERN
PROVIDENCE- WESTERN KENT COUNTIES IN RI FOR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. IN THE RI PORTION...OUR EXPECTATION IS MOSTLY TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE SCITUATE RESERVOIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...
WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP.
SHOWER/SPRINKLE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. IT/S STILL
UNSTABLE ALOFT BUT LACKING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO
ORGANIZE CONVECTION. THE MIXED LAYER REACHES NEAR 800 MB AGAIN
WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE LAYER. TEMPS NEAR THE TOP OF THE
LAYER WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND SO WE EXPECT MAX SFC TEMPS
EITHER SIDE OF 50...PERHAPS MID 50S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST BUT COLD POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY
FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO LESS COLD. THIS
LEAVES LESS ROOM FOR ANY ADDITIONAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN CT. THIS
STATUS WILL BE REEVALUATED BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
* BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH ONSHORE WINDS MON INTO TUE
* LOW CONFIDENCE FOR COASTAL SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48
WITH CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AND WESTERN ONTARIO...RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND
ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. 12Z MODEL
SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND. THE LOW TRIES TO
SHIFT E SUNDAY...ONLY TO ROTATE BACK TOWARD THE REGION AND
BECOMING E-W ORIENTED. THIS WILL PINCH THE WESTERN TROUGH INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO AT FIRST...THEN SEND ENERGY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WITH A MIGRATING CUTOFF H5 LOW.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD DIVERGE WITH
THEIR HANDLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LENDING TO LOWERED
CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY WITH THE FORECAST...THOUGH THE 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF TRY TO WORK THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTO THE LOWER TO
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY AROUND TUESDAY. FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE RATHER WIDE SOLUTIONS MAINLY DUE TO
SPLIT PATTERN ON THE E COAST AND HANDLING PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF
POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A COASTAL LOW
TRIES TO TAKE SHAPE SOMEWHERE FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE SE U.S.
COAST WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY.

LEANED TOWARD BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE WHICH GAVE GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
BEYOND MONDAY...LEANED TOWARD ENSEMBLES WHICH WERE A BIT MORE
STABLE WITH THEIR POSITIONS AND TRACKS OF THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. THIS WAS CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG H5 CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH IT LOOKS TO PINWHEEL AS IT TRIES TO
BECOME E-W ORIENTED AND RETROGRADE BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. WHILE
THERE IS ONLY WEAK SURFACE FEATURES...THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
WILL KEEP SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DEVELOPING. LOOKS LIKE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS OF MA.

AM NOTING RATHER STRONG LOW PRES THAT WILL PASS S OF THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND...A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT WORKED OUT OF THE DESERT SW
FROM THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGHING. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP MOST
OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE REGION.

EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH DAYS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SUN EARLY
BEFORE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CLOUDS DEVELOP. HOWEVER...IF A
FEW BREAKS OF SUN HANG INTO THE AFTERNOON...A FEW LOCATIONS MIGHT
REACH 60. WITH LIGHT PRES GRADIENT...SEA BREEZES MAY ALSO DEVELOP
MAINLY ALONG E COASTAL AREAS BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MODELS BEGIN DO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. AM NOTING THE NE UPPER LOW RETURNS TO SIT AND SPIN
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ITS ORIENTATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
SHIFT TO N-NE OVER TIME...WHICH WILL ALLOW MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK ONSHORE. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME POTENT SHORT WAVES
SPINNING IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING
HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS...LOOKS LIKE ON THE ORDER OF 0.1 TO 0.25
INCHES FROM 12Z MON TO 00Z WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO DIVERGE...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TWO SYSTEMS TO PONDER UPON...FIRST THE
CUTOFF SITTING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HOW THIS WILL TRACK OFFSHORE.
THE SECOND IS THE CUTOFF LOW THAT WORKS E ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM OUT OF THE DESERT SW. FOR NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WED/WED
NIGHT. BIG QUESTION IS ON THURSDAY...WHETHER THE NE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY AND WHETHER LOW PRES THAT LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SE U.S. WILL EITHER MOVE E OR TRY TO WORK UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO HAPPEN UNTIL BEYOND THURSDAY.

AT THIS POINT...KEPT PERSISTENCE GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 8 PM/00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
WORCESTER HILLS AND POINTS WEST. GUSTY WEST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS
DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. AS WITH TODAY...CONDITIONS
MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS
COULD LOWER TO MVFR QUICKLY IN A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH AROUND SUNSET EACH DAY. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. WEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25
KNOTS EARLY AND 15-20 KNOTS LATE. SEAS AT 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND RI WATERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THIS EVENING AND MOST WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS. A FEW SPOTS MAY
APPROACH 25 KNOTS...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND. SEAS LINGER
AT 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ON THOSE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL LINGER BETWEEN 4-5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT W WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT SAT/SAT NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS...THEN WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. E SWELLS WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SEAS INCREASING TO AROUND 5-6 FT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS GENERALLY N-NE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY UP TO 25 KT
ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT...HIGHEST ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WAS MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS COMBINED WITH
TIDAL INFLUENCES AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. THE RIVER
NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS UNDER STRONG TIDAL INFLUENCE. AS A
RESULT...THE RIVER IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT HIGH TIDE AND NEAR FLOOD
STAGE AT LOW TIDE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TREND LOWER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF CYCLES...WITH A HIGH TIDE CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
HYDROLOGY...WTB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 232111
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
511 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...
CLOSED UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL ARE IN POSITION OVER NEW ENGLAND.
THE COLD POOL IS PROVIDING AN UNSTABLE PROFILE THAT HAS GENERATED
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF GRAUPEL. ALSO
IN THE MIX IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS
GENERATED TWO OR MORE LINES OF SHOWERS AS IT MOVED ACROSS NEW
YORK...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AXIS IS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AROUND
8 PM. WE HAVE BUMPED POPS UP ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MASS AND NORTHERN CT DUE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH.

TONIGHT...
COLD AIR SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB...AS WELL AS
SOME LIFT IN THIS LAYER. EXPECT CLOUDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET
BUT NOT COMPLETELY GOING AWAY. WEST WINDS WILL BRING AIR IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.

CLOUDS AND LINGERING WIND WILL INTERFERE WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT
OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONGLY SHELTERED SPOTS. BUT AIR TEMPS AT OR A
LITTLE BELOW 32F ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON HAS STARTED IN CT-RI AS WELL AS
IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN
AT LEAST 50 PERCENT OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CT. FREEZING
TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST RI. EXPECTED COVERAGE IS
LESS IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING
FOR HARTFORD-TOLLAND-WINDHAM COUNTIES IN CT AND WESTERN
PROVIDENCE- WESTERN KENT COUNTIES IN RI FOR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. IN THE RI PORTION...OUR EXPECTATION IS MOSTLY TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE SCITUATE RESERVOIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...
WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP.
SHOWER/SPRINKLE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. IT/S STILL
UNSTABLE ALOFT BUT LACKING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO
ORGANIZE CONVECTION. THE MIXED LAYER REACHES NEAR 800 MB AGAIN
WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE LAYER. TEMPS NEAR THE TOP OF THE
LAYER WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND SO WE EXPECT MAX SFC TEMPS
EITHER SIDE OF 50...PERHAPS MID 50S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST BUT COLD POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY
FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO LESS COLD. THIS
LEAVES LESS ROOM FOR ANY ADDITIONAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN CT. THIS
STATUS WILL BE REEVALUATED BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
* BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH ONSHORE WINDS MON INTO TUE
* LOW CONFIDENCE FOR COASTAL SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48
WITH CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AND WESTERN ONTARIO...RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND
ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. 12Z MODEL
SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND. THE LOW TRIES TO
SHIFT E SUNDAY...ONLY TO ROTATE BACK TOWARD THE REGION AND
BECOMING E-W ORIENTED. THIS WILL PINCH THE WESTERN TROUGH INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO AT FIRST...THEN SEND ENERGY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WITH A MIGRATING CUTOFF H5 LOW.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD DIVERGE WITH
THEIR HANDLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LENDING TO LOWERED
CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY WITH THE FORECAST...THOUGH THE 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF TRY TO WORK THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTO THE LOWER TO
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY AROUND TUESDAY. FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE RATHER WIDE SOLUTIONS MAINLY DUE TO
SPLIT PATTERN ON THE E COAST AND HANDLING PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF
POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A COASTAL LOW
TRIES TO TAKE SHAPE SOMEWHERE FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE SE U.S.
COAST WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY.

LEANED TOWARD BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE WHICH GAVE GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
BEYOND MONDAY...LEANED TOWARD ENSEMBLES WHICH WERE A BIT MORE
STABLE WITH THEIR POSITIONS AND TRACKS OF THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. THIS WAS CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG H5 CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH IT LOOKS TO PINWHEEL AS IT TRIES TO
BECOME E-W ORIENTED AND RETROGRADE BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. WHILE
THERE IS ONLY WEAK SURFACE FEATURES...THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
WILL KEEP SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DEVELOPING. LOOKS LIKE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS OF MA.

AM NOTING RATHER STRONG LOW PRES THAT WILL PASS S OF THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND...A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT WORKED OUT OF THE DESERT SW
FROM THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGHING. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP MOST
OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE REGION.

EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH DAYS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SUN EARLY
BEFORE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CLOUDS DEVELOP. HOWEVER...IF A
FEW BREAKS OF SUN HANG INTO THE AFTERNOON...A FEW LOCATIONS MIGHT
REACH 60. WITH LIGHT PRES GRADIENT...SEA BREEZES MAY ALSO DEVELOP
MAINLY ALONG E COASTAL AREAS BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MODELS BEGIN DO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. AM NOTING THE NE UPPER LOW RETURNS TO SIT AND SPIN
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ITS ORIENTATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
SHIFT TO N-NE OVER TIME...WHICH WILL ALLOW MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK ONSHORE. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME POTENT SHORT WAVES
SPINNING IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING
HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS...LOOKS LIKE ON THE ORDER OF 0.1 TO 0.25
INCHES FROM 12Z MON TO 00Z WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO DIVERGE...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TWO SYSTEMS TO PONDER UPON...FIRST THE
CUTOFF SITTING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HOW THIS WILL TRACK OFFSHORE.
THE SECOND IS THE CUTOFF LOW THAT WORKS E ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM OUT OF THE DESERT SW. FOR NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WED/WED
NIGHT. BIG QUESTION IS ON THURSDAY...WHETHER THE NE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY AND WHETHER LOW PRES THAT LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SE U.S. WILL EITHER MOVE E OR TRY TO WORK UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO HAPPEN UNTIL BEYOND THURSDAY.

AT THIS POINT...KEPT PERSISTENCE GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 8 PM/00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
WORCESTER HILLS AND POINTS WEST. GUSTY WEST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS
DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. AS WITH TODAY...CONDITIONS
MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS
COULD LOWER TO MVFR QUICKLY IN A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH AROUND SUNSET EACH DAY. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. WEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25
KNOTS EARLY AND 15-20 KNOTS LATE. SEAS AT 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND RI WATERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THIS EVENING AND MOST WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS. A FEW SPOTS MAY
APPROACH 25 KNOTS...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND. SEAS LINGER
AT 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ON THOSE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL LINGER BETWEEN 4-5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT W WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT SAT/SAT NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS...THEN WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. E SWELLS WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SEAS INCREASING TO AROUND 5-6 FT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS GENERALLY N-NE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY UP TO 25 KT
ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT...HIGHEST ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WAS MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS COMBINED WITH
TIDAL INFLUENCES AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. THE RIVER
NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS UNDER STRONG TIDAL INFLUENCE. AS A
RESULT...THE RIVER IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT HIGH TIDE AND NEAR FLOOD
STAGE AT LOW TIDE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TREND LOWER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF CYCLES...WITH A HIGH TIDE CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
HYDROLOGY...WTB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 232111
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
511 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...
CLOSED UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL ARE IN POSITION OVER NEW ENGLAND.
THE COLD POOL IS PROVIDING AN UNSTABLE PROFILE THAT HAS GENERATED
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF GRAUPEL. ALSO
IN THE MIX IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS
GENERATED TWO OR MORE LINES OF SHOWERS AS IT MOVED ACROSS NEW
YORK...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AXIS IS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AROUND
8 PM. WE HAVE BUMPED POPS UP ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MASS AND NORTHERN CT DUE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH.

TONIGHT...
COLD AIR SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB...AS WELL AS
SOME LIFT IN THIS LAYER. EXPECT CLOUDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET
BUT NOT COMPLETELY GOING AWAY. WEST WINDS WILL BRING AIR IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.

CLOUDS AND LINGERING WIND WILL INTERFERE WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT
OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONGLY SHELTERED SPOTS. BUT AIR TEMPS AT OR A
LITTLE BELOW 32F ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON HAS STARTED IN CT-RI AS WELL AS
IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN
AT LEAST 50 PERCENT OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CT. FREEZING
TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST RI. EXPECTED COVERAGE IS
LESS IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING
FOR HARTFORD-TOLLAND-WINDHAM COUNTIES IN CT AND WESTERN
PROVIDENCE- WESTERN KENT COUNTIES IN RI FOR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. IN THE RI PORTION...OUR EXPECTATION IS MOSTLY TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE SCITUATE RESERVOIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...
WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP.
SHOWER/SPRINKLE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. IT/S STILL
UNSTABLE ALOFT BUT LACKING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO
ORGANIZE CONVECTION. THE MIXED LAYER REACHES NEAR 800 MB AGAIN
WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE LAYER. TEMPS NEAR THE TOP OF THE
LAYER WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND SO WE EXPECT MAX SFC TEMPS
EITHER SIDE OF 50...PERHAPS MID 50S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST BUT COLD POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY
FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO LESS COLD. THIS
LEAVES LESS ROOM FOR ANY ADDITIONAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN CT. THIS
STATUS WILL BE REEVALUATED BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
* BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH ONSHORE WINDS MON INTO TUE
* LOW CONFIDENCE FOR COASTAL SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48
WITH CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AND WESTERN ONTARIO...RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND
ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. 12Z MODEL
SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND. THE LOW TRIES TO
SHIFT E SUNDAY...ONLY TO ROTATE BACK TOWARD THE REGION AND
BECOMING E-W ORIENTED. THIS WILL PINCH THE WESTERN TROUGH INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO AT FIRST...THEN SEND ENERGY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WITH A MIGRATING CUTOFF H5 LOW.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD DIVERGE WITH
THEIR HANDLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LENDING TO LOWERED
CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY WITH THE FORECAST...THOUGH THE 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF TRY TO WORK THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTO THE LOWER TO
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY AROUND TUESDAY. FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE RATHER WIDE SOLUTIONS MAINLY DUE TO
SPLIT PATTERN ON THE E COAST AND HANDLING PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF
POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A COASTAL LOW
TRIES TO TAKE SHAPE SOMEWHERE FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE SE U.S.
COAST WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY.

LEANED TOWARD BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE WHICH GAVE GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
BEYOND MONDAY...LEANED TOWARD ENSEMBLES WHICH WERE A BIT MORE
STABLE WITH THEIR POSITIONS AND TRACKS OF THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. THIS WAS CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG H5 CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH IT LOOKS TO PINWHEEL AS IT TRIES TO
BECOME E-W ORIENTED AND RETROGRADE BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. WHILE
THERE IS ONLY WEAK SURFACE FEATURES...THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
WILL KEEP SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DEVELOPING. LOOKS LIKE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS OF MA.

AM NOTING RATHER STRONG LOW PRES THAT WILL PASS S OF THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND...A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT WORKED OUT OF THE DESERT SW
FROM THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGHING. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP MOST
OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE REGION.

EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH DAYS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SUN EARLY
BEFORE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CLOUDS DEVELOP. HOWEVER...IF A
FEW BREAKS OF SUN HANG INTO THE AFTERNOON...A FEW LOCATIONS MIGHT
REACH 60. WITH LIGHT PRES GRADIENT...SEA BREEZES MAY ALSO DEVELOP
MAINLY ALONG E COASTAL AREAS BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MODELS BEGIN DO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. AM NOTING THE NE UPPER LOW RETURNS TO SIT AND SPIN
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ITS ORIENTATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
SHIFT TO N-NE OVER TIME...WHICH WILL ALLOW MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK ONSHORE. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME POTENT SHORT WAVES
SPINNING IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING
HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS...LOOKS LIKE ON THE ORDER OF 0.1 TO 0.25
INCHES FROM 12Z MON TO 00Z WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO DIVERGE...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TWO SYSTEMS TO PONDER UPON...FIRST THE
CUTOFF SITTING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HOW THIS WILL TRACK OFFSHORE.
THE SECOND IS THE CUTOFF LOW THAT WORKS E ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM OUT OF THE DESERT SW. FOR NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WED/WED
NIGHT. BIG QUESTION IS ON THURSDAY...WHETHER THE NE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY AND WHETHER LOW PRES THAT LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SE U.S. WILL EITHER MOVE E OR TRY TO WORK UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO HAPPEN UNTIL BEYOND THURSDAY.

AT THIS POINT...KEPT PERSISTENCE GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 8 PM/00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
WORCESTER HILLS AND POINTS WEST. GUSTY WEST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS
DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. AS WITH TODAY...CONDITIONS
MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS
COULD LOWER TO MVFR QUICKLY IN A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH AROUND SUNSET EACH DAY. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. WEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25
KNOTS EARLY AND 15-20 KNOTS LATE. SEAS AT 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND RI WATERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THIS EVENING AND MOST WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS. A FEW SPOTS MAY
APPROACH 25 KNOTS...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND. SEAS LINGER
AT 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ON THOSE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL LINGER BETWEEN 4-5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT W WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT SAT/SAT NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS...THEN WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. E SWELLS WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SEAS INCREASING TO AROUND 5-6 FT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS GENERALLY N-NE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY UP TO 25 KT
ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT...HIGHEST ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WAS MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS COMBINED WITH
TIDAL INFLUENCES AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. THE RIVER
NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS UNDER STRONG TIDAL INFLUENCE. AS A
RESULT...THE RIVER IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT HIGH TIDE AND NEAR FLOOD
STAGE AT LOW TIDE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TREND LOWER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF CYCLES...WITH A HIGH TIDE CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
HYDROLOGY...WTB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 232111
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
511 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...
CLOSED UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL ARE IN POSITION OVER NEW ENGLAND.
THE COLD POOL IS PROVIDING AN UNSTABLE PROFILE THAT HAS GENERATED
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF GRAUPEL. ALSO
IN THE MIX IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS
GENERATED TWO OR MORE LINES OF SHOWERS AS IT MOVED ACROSS NEW
YORK...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AXIS IS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AROUND
8 PM. WE HAVE BUMPED POPS UP ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MASS AND NORTHERN CT DUE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH.

TONIGHT...
COLD AIR SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB...AS WELL AS
SOME LIFT IN THIS LAYER. EXPECT CLOUDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET
BUT NOT COMPLETELY GOING AWAY. WEST WINDS WILL BRING AIR IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.

CLOUDS AND LINGERING WIND WILL INTERFERE WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT
OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONGLY SHELTERED SPOTS. BUT AIR TEMPS AT OR A
LITTLE BELOW 32F ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON HAS STARTED IN CT-RI AS WELL AS
IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN
AT LEAST 50 PERCENT OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CT. FREEZING
TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST RI. EXPECTED COVERAGE IS
LESS IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING
FOR HARTFORD-TOLLAND-WINDHAM COUNTIES IN CT AND WESTERN
PROVIDENCE- WESTERN KENT COUNTIES IN RI FOR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. IN THE RI PORTION...OUR EXPECTATION IS MOSTLY TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE SCITUATE RESERVOIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...
WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP.
SHOWER/SPRINKLE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. IT/S STILL
UNSTABLE ALOFT BUT LACKING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO
ORGANIZE CONVECTION. THE MIXED LAYER REACHES NEAR 800 MB AGAIN
WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE LAYER. TEMPS NEAR THE TOP OF THE
LAYER WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND SO WE EXPECT MAX SFC TEMPS
EITHER SIDE OF 50...PERHAPS MID 50S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST BUT COLD POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY
FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO LESS COLD. THIS
LEAVES LESS ROOM FOR ANY ADDITIONAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN CT. THIS
STATUS WILL BE REEVALUATED BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
* BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH ONSHORE WINDS MON INTO TUE
* LOW CONFIDENCE FOR COASTAL SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48
WITH CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AND WESTERN ONTARIO...RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND
ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. 12Z MODEL
SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND. THE LOW TRIES TO
SHIFT E SUNDAY...ONLY TO ROTATE BACK TOWARD THE REGION AND
BECOMING E-W ORIENTED. THIS WILL PINCH THE WESTERN TROUGH INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO AT FIRST...THEN SEND ENERGY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WITH A MIGRATING CUTOFF H5 LOW.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD DIVERGE WITH
THEIR HANDLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LENDING TO LOWERED
CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY WITH THE FORECAST...THOUGH THE 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF TRY TO WORK THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTO THE LOWER TO
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY AROUND TUESDAY. FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE RATHER WIDE SOLUTIONS MAINLY DUE TO
SPLIT PATTERN ON THE E COAST AND HANDLING PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF
POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A COASTAL LOW
TRIES TO TAKE SHAPE SOMEWHERE FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE SE U.S.
COAST WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY.

LEANED TOWARD BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE WHICH GAVE GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
BEYOND MONDAY...LEANED TOWARD ENSEMBLES WHICH WERE A BIT MORE
STABLE WITH THEIR POSITIONS AND TRACKS OF THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. THIS WAS CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG H5 CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH IT LOOKS TO PINWHEEL AS IT TRIES TO
BECOME E-W ORIENTED AND RETROGRADE BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. WHILE
THERE IS ONLY WEAK SURFACE FEATURES...THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
WILL KEEP SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DEVELOPING. LOOKS LIKE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS OF MA.

AM NOTING RATHER STRONG LOW PRES THAT WILL PASS S OF THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND...A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT WORKED OUT OF THE DESERT SW
FROM THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGHING. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP MOST
OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE REGION.

EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH DAYS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SUN EARLY
BEFORE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CLOUDS DEVELOP. HOWEVER...IF A
FEW BREAKS OF SUN HANG INTO THE AFTERNOON...A FEW LOCATIONS MIGHT
REACH 60. WITH LIGHT PRES GRADIENT...SEA BREEZES MAY ALSO DEVELOP
MAINLY ALONG E COASTAL AREAS BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MODELS BEGIN DO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. AM NOTING THE NE UPPER LOW RETURNS TO SIT AND SPIN
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ITS ORIENTATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
SHIFT TO N-NE OVER TIME...WHICH WILL ALLOW MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK ONSHORE. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME POTENT SHORT WAVES
SPINNING IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING
HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS...LOOKS LIKE ON THE ORDER OF 0.1 TO 0.25
INCHES FROM 12Z MON TO 00Z WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO DIVERGE...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TWO SYSTEMS TO PONDER UPON...FIRST THE
CUTOFF SITTING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HOW THIS WILL TRACK OFFSHORE.
THE SECOND IS THE CUTOFF LOW THAT WORKS E ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM OUT OF THE DESERT SW. FOR NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WED/WED
NIGHT. BIG QUESTION IS ON THURSDAY...WHETHER THE NE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY AND WHETHER LOW PRES THAT LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SE U.S. WILL EITHER MOVE E OR TRY TO WORK UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO HAPPEN UNTIL BEYOND THURSDAY.

AT THIS POINT...KEPT PERSISTENCE GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 8 PM/00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
WORCESTER HILLS AND POINTS WEST. GUSTY WEST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS
DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. AS WITH TODAY...CONDITIONS
MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS
COULD LOWER TO MVFR QUICKLY IN A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH AROUND SUNSET EACH DAY. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. WEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25
KNOTS EARLY AND 15-20 KNOTS LATE. SEAS AT 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND RI WATERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THIS EVENING AND MOST WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS. A FEW SPOTS MAY
APPROACH 25 KNOTS...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND. SEAS LINGER
AT 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ON THOSE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL LINGER BETWEEN 4-5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT W WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT SAT/SAT NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS...THEN WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. E SWELLS WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SEAS INCREASING TO AROUND 5-6 FT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS GENERALLY N-NE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY UP TO 25 KT
ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT...HIGHEST ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WAS MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS COMBINED WITH
TIDAL INFLUENCES AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. THE RIVER
NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS UNDER STRONG TIDAL INFLUENCE. AS A
RESULT...THE RIVER IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT HIGH TIDE AND NEAR FLOOD
STAGE AT LOW TIDE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TREND LOWER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF CYCLES...WITH A HIGH TIDE CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
HYDROLOGY...WTB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 232111
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
511 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...
CLOSED UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL ARE IN POSITION OVER NEW ENGLAND.
THE COLD POOL IS PROVIDING AN UNSTABLE PROFILE THAT HAS GENERATED
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF GRAUPEL. ALSO
IN THE MIX IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS
GENERATED TWO OR MORE LINES OF SHOWERS AS IT MOVED ACROSS NEW
YORK...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AXIS IS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AROUND
8 PM. WE HAVE BUMPED POPS UP ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MASS AND NORTHERN CT DUE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH.

TONIGHT...
COLD AIR SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB...AS WELL AS
SOME LIFT IN THIS LAYER. EXPECT CLOUDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET
BUT NOT COMPLETELY GOING AWAY. WEST WINDS WILL BRING AIR IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.

CLOUDS AND LINGERING WIND WILL INTERFERE WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT
OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONGLY SHELTERED SPOTS. BUT AIR TEMPS AT OR A
LITTLE BELOW 32F ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON HAS STARTED IN CT-RI AS WELL AS
IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN
AT LEAST 50 PERCENT OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CT. FREEZING
TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST RI. EXPECTED COVERAGE IS
LESS IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING
FOR HARTFORD-TOLLAND-WINDHAM COUNTIES IN CT AND WESTERN
PROVIDENCE- WESTERN KENT COUNTIES IN RI FOR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. IN THE RI PORTION...OUR EXPECTATION IS MOSTLY TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE SCITUATE RESERVOIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...
WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP.
SHOWER/SPRINKLE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. IT/S STILL
UNSTABLE ALOFT BUT LACKING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO
ORGANIZE CONVECTION. THE MIXED LAYER REACHES NEAR 800 MB AGAIN
WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE LAYER. TEMPS NEAR THE TOP OF THE
LAYER WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND SO WE EXPECT MAX SFC TEMPS
EITHER SIDE OF 50...PERHAPS MID 50S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST BUT COLD POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY
FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO LESS COLD. THIS
LEAVES LESS ROOM FOR ANY ADDITIONAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN CT. THIS
STATUS WILL BE REEVALUATED BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
* BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH ONSHORE WINDS MON INTO TUE
* LOW CONFIDENCE FOR COASTAL SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48
WITH CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AND WESTERN ONTARIO...RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND
ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. 12Z MODEL
SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND. THE LOW TRIES TO
SHIFT E SUNDAY...ONLY TO ROTATE BACK TOWARD THE REGION AND
BECOMING E-W ORIENTED. THIS WILL PINCH THE WESTERN TROUGH INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO AT FIRST...THEN SEND ENERGY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WITH A MIGRATING CUTOFF H5 LOW.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD DIVERGE WITH
THEIR HANDLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LENDING TO LOWERED
CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY WITH THE FORECAST...THOUGH THE 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF TRY TO WORK THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTO THE LOWER TO
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY AROUND TUESDAY. FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE RATHER WIDE SOLUTIONS MAINLY DUE TO
SPLIT PATTERN ON THE E COAST AND HANDLING PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF
POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A COASTAL LOW
TRIES TO TAKE SHAPE SOMEWHERE FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE SE U.S.
COAST WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY.

LEANED TOWARD BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE WHICH GAVE GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
BEYOND MONDAY...LEANED TOWARD ENSEMBLES WHICH WERE A BIT MORE
STABLE WITH THEIR POSITIONS AND TRACKS OF THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. THIS WAS CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG H5 CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH IT LOOKS TO PINWHEEL AS IT TRIES TO
BECOME E-W ORIENTED AND RETROGRADE BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. WHILE
THERE IS ONLY WEAK SURFACE FEATURES...THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
WILL KEEP SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DEVELOPING. LOOKS LIKE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS OF MA.

AM NOTING RATHER STRONG LOW PRES THAT WILL PASS S OF THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND...A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT WORKED OUT OF THE DESERT SW
FROM THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGHING. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP MOST
OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE REGION.

EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH DAYS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SUN EARLY
BEFORE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CLOUDS DEVELOP. HOWEVER...IF A
FEW BREAKS OF SUN HANG INTO THE AFTERNOON...A FEW LOCATIONS MIGHT
REACH 60. WITH LIGHT PRES GRADIENT...SEA BREEZES MAY ALSO DEVELOP
MAINLY ALONG E COASTAL AREAS BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MODELS BEGIN DO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. AM NOTING THE NE UPPER LOW RETURNS TO SIT AND SPIN
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ITS ORIENTATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
SHIFT TO N-NE OVER TIME...WHICH WILL ALLOW MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK ONSHORE. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME POTENT SHORT WAVES
SPINNING IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING
HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS...LOOKS LIKE ON THE ORDER OF 0.1 TO 0.25
INCHES FROM 12Z MON TO 00Z WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO DIVERGE...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TWO SYSTEMS TO PONDER UPON...FIRST THE
CUTOFF SITTING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HOW THIS WILL TRACK OFFSHORE.
THE SECOND IS THE CUTOFF LOW THAT WORKS E ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM OUT OF THE DESERT SW. FOR NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WED/WED
NIGHT. BIG QUESTION IS ON THURSDAY...WHETHER THE NE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY AND WHETHER LOW PRES THAT LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SE U.S. WILL EITHER MOVE E OR TRY TO WORK UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO HAPPEN UNTIL BEYOND THURSDAY.

AT THIS POINT...KEPT PERSISTENCE GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 8 PM/00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
WORCESTER HILLS AND POINTS WEST. GUSTY WEST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS
DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. AS WITH TODAY...CONDITIONS
MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS
COULD LOWER TO MVFR QUICKLY IN A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH AROUND SUNSET EACH DAY. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. WEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25
KNOTS EARLY AND 15-20 KNOTS LATE. SEAS AT 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND RI WATERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THIS EVENING AND MOST WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS. A FEW SPOTS MAY
APPROACH 25 KNOTS...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND. SEAS LINGER
AT 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ON THOSE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL LINGER BETWEEN 4-5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT W WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT SAT/SAT NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS...THEN WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. E SWELLS WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SEAS INCREASING TO AROUND 5-6 FT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS GENERALLY N-NE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY UP TO 25 KT
ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT...HIGHEST ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WAS MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS COMBINED WITH
TIDAL INFLUENCES AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. THE RIVER
NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS UNDER STRONG TIDAL INFLUENCE. AS A
RESULT...THE RIVER IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT HIGH TIDE AND NEAR FLOOD
STAGE AT LOW TIDE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TREND LOWER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF CYCLES...WITH A HIGH TIDE CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
HYDROLOGY...WTB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 232111
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
511 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...
CLOSED UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL ARE IN POSITION OVER NEW ENGLAND.
THE COLD POOL IS PROVIDING AN UNSTABLE PROFILE THAT HAS GENERATED
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF GRAUPEL. ALSO
IN THE MIX IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS
GENERATED TWO OR MORE LINES OF SHOWERS AS IT MOVED ACROSS NEW
YORK...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AXIS IS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AROUND
8 PM. WE HAVE BUMPED POPS UP ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MASS AND NORTHERN CT DUE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH.

TONIGHT...
COLD AIR SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB...AS WELL AS
SOME LIFT IN THIS LAYER. EXPECT CLOUDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET
BUT NOT COMPLETELY GOING AWAY. WEST WINDS WILL BRING AIR IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.

CLOUDS AND LINGERING WIND WILL INTERFERE WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT
OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONGLY SHELTERED SPOTS. BUT AIR TEMPS AT OR A
LITTLE BELOW 32F ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON HAS STARTED IN CT-RI AS WELL AS
IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN
AT LEAST 50 PERCENT OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CT. FREEZING
TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST RI. EXPECTED COVERAGE IS
LESS IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING
FOR HARTFORD-TOLLAND-WINDHAM COUNTIES IN CT AND WESTERN
PROVIDENCE- WESTERN KENT COUNTIES IN RI FOR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. IN THE RI PORTION...OUR EXPECTATION IS MOSTLY TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE SCITUATE RESERVOIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...
WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP.
SHOWER/SPRINKLE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. IT/S STILL
UNSTABLE ALOFT BUT LACKING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO
ORGANIZE CONVECTION. THE MIXED LAYER REACHES NEAR 800 MB AGAIN
WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE LAYER. TEMPS NEAR THE TOP OF THE
LAYER WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND SO WE EXPECT MAX SFC TEMPS
EITHER SIDE OF 50...PERHAPS MID 50S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST BUT COLD POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY
FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO LESS COLD. THIS
LEAVES LESS ROOM FOR ANY ADDITIONAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN CT. THIS
STATUS WILL BE REEVALUATED BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
* BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH ONSHORE WINDS MON INTO TUE
* LOW CONFIDENCE FOR COASTAL SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48
WITH CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AND WESTERN ONTARIO...RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND
ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. 12Z MODEL
SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND. THE LOW TRIES TO
SHIFT E SUNDAY...ONLY TO ROTATE BACK TOWARD THE REGION AND
BECOMING E-W ORIENTED. THIS WILL PINCH THE WESTERN TROUGH INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO AT FIRST...THEN SEND ENERGY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WITH A MIGRATING CUTOFF H5 LOW.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD DIVERGE WITH
THEIR HANDLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LENDING TO LOWERED
CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY WITH THE FORECAST...THOUGH THE 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF TRY TO WORK THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTO THE LOWER TO
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY AROUND TUESDAY. FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE RATHER WIDE SOLUTIONS MAINLY DUE TO
SPLIT PATTERN ON THE E COAST AND HANDLING PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF
POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A COASTAL LOW
TRIES TO TAKE SHAPE SOMEWHERE FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE SE U.S.
COAST WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY.

LEANED TOWARD BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE WHICH GAVE GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
BEYOND MONDAY...LEANED TOWARD ENSEMBLES WHICH WERE A BIT MORE
STABLE WITH THEIR POSITIONS AND TRACKS OF THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. THIS WAS CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG H5 CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH IT LOOKS TO PINWHEEL AS IT TRIES TO
BECOME E-W ORIENTED AND RETROGRADE BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. WHILE
THERE IS ONLY WEAK SURFACE FEATURES...THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
WILL KEEP SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DEVELOPING. LOOKS LIKE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS OF MA.

AM NOTING RATHER STRONG LOW PRES THAT WILL PASS S OF THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND...A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT WORKED OUT OF THE DESERT SW
FROM THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGHING. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP MOST
OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE REGION.

EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH DAYS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SUN EARLY
BEFORE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CLOUDS DEVELOP. HOWEVER...IF A
FEW BREAKS OF SUN HANG INTO THE AFTERNOON...A FEW LOCATIONS MIGHT
REACH 60. WITH LIGHT PRES GRADIENT...SEA BREEZES MAY ALSO DEVELOP
MAINLY ALONG E COASTAL AREAS BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MODELS BEGIN DO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. AM NOTING THE NE UPPER LOW RETURNS TO SIT AND SPIN
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ITS ORIENTATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
SHIFT TO N-NE OVER TIME...WHICH WILL ALLOW MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK ONSHORE. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME POTENT SHORT WAVES
SPINNING IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING
HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS...LOOKS LIKE ON THE ORDER OF 0.1 TO 0.25
INCHES FROM 12Z MON TO 00Z WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO DIVERGE...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TWO SYSTEMS TO PONDER UPON...FIRST THE
CUTOFF SITTING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HOW THIS WILL TRACK OFFSHORE.
THE SECOND IS THE CUTOFF LOW THAT WORKS E ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM OUT OF THE DESERT SW. FOR NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WED/WED
NIGHT. BIG QUESTION IS ON THURSDAY...WHETHER THE NE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY AND WHETHER LOW PRES THAT LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SE U.S. WILL EITHER MOVE E OR TRY TO WORK UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO HAPPEN UNTIL BEYOND THURSDAY.

AT THIS POINT...KEPT PERSISTENCE GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 8 PM/00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
WORCESTER HILLS AND POINTS WEST. GUSTY WEST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS
DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. AS WITH TODAY...CONDITIONS
MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS
COULD LOWER TO MVFR QUICKLY IN A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH AROUND SUNSET EACH DAY. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. WEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25
KNOTS EARLY AND 15-20 KNOTS LATE. SEAS AT 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND RI WATERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THIS EVENING AND MOST WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS. A FEW SPOTS MAY
APPROACH 25 KNOTS...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND. SEAS LINGER
AT 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ON THOSE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL LINGER BETWEEN 4-5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT W WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT SAT/SAT NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS...THEN WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. E SWELLS WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SEAS INCREASING TO AROUND 5-6 FT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS GENERALLY N-NE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY UP TO 25 KT
ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT...HIGHEST ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WAS MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS COMBINED WITH
TIDAL INFLUENCES AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. THE RIVER
NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS UNDER STRONG TIDAL INFLUENCE. AS A
RESULT...THE RIVER IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT HIGH TIDE AND NEAR FLOOD
STAGE AT LOW TIDE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TREND LOWER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF CYCLES...WITH A HIGH TIDE CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
HYDROLOGY...WTB




000
FXUS61 KGYX 231905
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
305 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE NORTHEAST AND
MARITIMES TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND PROVIDING COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORNINGS WILL SEE MORE
SUNSHINE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING MOST AFTERNOONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST BEGINNING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD HERE IN THE
NORTHEAST AS COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES. CUTOFF LOW WILL
REMAIN PARKED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING WITH JUST VARIABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH WITH SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH AND
LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY LOOKING LIKE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY WITH ANY MORNING SUNNY
BREAKS QUICKLY GIVING WAY TO CLOUDS AND MORE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY`S WITH
READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FRIDAY NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ANY SHOWERS WILL ALSO TAPER OFF DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
500 MB CLOSED LOW BECOMES SEPARATED FROM THE FLOW THIS WEEKEND
AND LINGERS OVER THE NERN CONUS AND ERN CANADA INTO NEXT WEEK...AS
BLOCKS SET UP DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ATLANTIC...AND UPSTREAM OVER
WRN NOAM. IN A SENSE...THIS MAKES THE FORECAST SIMPLE...AS IT WILL
BE COOL ENOUGH ALOFT TO GENERATE INSTABILITY SHRA EVEN GIVEN SMALL
AMTS OF SUN...WHICH WE SHOULD SEE MOST MORNINGS. SO DAYS START OFF
WITH SOME SUN...WITH SCT SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN SOME
CLEARING AFTER SUNSET. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING 2 POSSIBLE WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW THAT COULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA ON
SATURDAY...AND AGAIN ON MON NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE UNPREDICTABLENATURE
OF TIMING THESE WAVES AROUND THE LOW...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
BEYOND SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE RUNNING 5-10 F BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE DAYS...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL AT
NIGHT...GIVEN PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND HIGHER LOW LVL MOISTURE. THE
12Z EURO TRIES TO BUILD A RIDGE BEHIND THE CLOSED LOW ON WED...AND
BACKED OFF TO SLT CHC POPS THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. VFR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WILL SEE PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS SAT THRU TUE...BUT
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. COULD SEE MORE OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AROUND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S FOR SEAS THROUGH 00Z.

LONG TERM...THE WATERS REMAIN QUIET SAT THRU MON...AS WEAK SFC LOW
MEANDERS AROUND NEAR THE WATERS. THE LOW WILL SHIFT EWD TUE...AND
S WINDS WILL INCREASE...NEARING SCA LVLS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...COOL DAMP WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 231905
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
305 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE NORTHEAST AND
MARITIMES TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND PROVIDING COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORNINGS WILL SEE MORE
SUNSHINE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING MOST AFTERNOONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST BEGINNING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD HERE IN THE
NORTHEAST AS COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES. CUTOFF LOW WILL
REMAIN PARKED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING WITH JUST VARIABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH WITH SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH AND
LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY LOOKING LIKE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY WITH ANY MORNING SUNNY
BREAKS QUICKLY GIVING WAY TO CLOUDS AND MORE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY`S WITH
READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FRIDAY NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ANY SHOWERS WILL ALSO TAPER OFF DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
500 MB CLOSED LOW BECOMES SEPARATED FROM THE FLOW THIS WEEKEND
AND LINGERS OVER THE NERN CONUS AND ERN CANADA INTO NEXT WEEK...AS
BLOCKS SET UP DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ATLANTIC...AND UPSTREAM OVER
WRN NOAM. IN A SENSE...THIS MAKES THE FORECAST SIMPLE...AS IT WILL
BE COOL ENOUGH ALOFT TO GENERATE INSTABILITY SHRA EVEN GIVEN SMALL
AMTS OF SUN...WHICH WE SHOULD SEE MOST MORNINGS. SO DAYS START OFF
WITH SOME SUN...WITH SCT SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN SOME
CLEARING AFTER SUNSET. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING 2 POSSIBLE WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW THAT COULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA ON
SATURDAY...AND AGAIN ON MON NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE UNPREDICTABLENATURE
OF TIMING THESE WAVES AROUND THE LOW...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
BEYOND SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE RUNNING 5-10 F BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE DAYS...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL AT
NIGHT...GIVEN PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND HIGHER LOW LVL MOISTURE. THE
12Z EURO TRIES TO BUILD A RIDGE BEHIND THE CLOSED LOW ON WED...AND
BACKED OFF TO SLT CHC POPS THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. VFR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WILL SEE PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS SAT THRU TUE...BUT
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. COULD SEE MORE OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AROUND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S FOR SEAS THROUGH 00Z.

LONG TERM...THE WATERS REMAIN QUIET SAT THRU MON...AS WEAK SFC LOW
MEANDERS AROUND NEAR THE WATERS. THE LOW WILL SHIFT EWD TUE...AND
S WINDS WILL INCREASE...NEARING SCA LVLS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...COOL DAMP WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 231905
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
305 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE NORTHEAST AND
MARITIMES TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND PROVIDING COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORNINGS WILL SEE MORE
SUNSHINE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING MOST AFTERNOONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST BEGINNING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD HERE IN THE
NORTHEAST AS COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES. CUTOFF LOW WILL
REMAIN PARKED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING WITH JUST VARIABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH WITH SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH AND
LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY LOOKING LIKE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY WITH ANY MORNING SUNNY
BREAKS QUICKLY GIVING WAY TO CLOUDS AND MORE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY`S WITH
READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FRIDAY NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ANY SHOWERS WILL ALSO TAPER OFF DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
500 MB CLOSED LOW BECOMES SEPARATED FROM THE FLOW THIS WEEKEND
AND LINGERS OVER THE NERN CONUS AND ERN CANADA INTO NEXT WEEK...AS
BLOCKS SET UP DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ATLANTIC...AND UPSTREAM OVER
WRN NOAM. IN A SENSE...THIS MAKES THE FORECAST SIMPLE...AS IT WILL
BE COOL ENOUGH ALOFT TO GENERATE INSTABILITY SHRA EVEN GIVEN SMALL
AMTS OF SUN...WHICH WE SHOULD SEE MOST MORNINGS. SO DAYS START OFF
WITH SOME SUN...WITH SCT SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN SOME
CLEARING AFTER SUNSET. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING 2 POSSIBLE WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW THAT COULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA ON
SATURDAY...AND AGAIN ON MON NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE UNPREDICTABLENATURE
OF TIMING THESE WAVES AROUND THE LOW...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
BEYOND SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE RUNNING 5-10 F BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE DAYS...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL AT
NIGHT...GIVEN PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND HIGHER LOW LVL MOISTURE. THE
12Z EURO TRIES TO BUILD A RIDGE BEHIND THE CLOSED LOW ON WED...AND
BACKED OFF TO SLT CHC POPS THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. VFR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WILL SEE PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS SAT THRU TUE...BUT
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. COULD SEE MORE OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AROUND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S FOR SEAS THROUGH 00Z.

LONG TERM...THE WATERS REMAIN QUIET SAT THRU MON...AS WEAK SFC LOW
MEANDERS AROUND NEAR THE WATERS. THE LOW WILL SHIFT EWD TUE...AND
S WINDS WILL INCREASE...NEARING SCA LVLS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...COOL DAMP WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 231905
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
305 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE NORTHEAST AND
MARITIMES TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND PROVIDING COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORNINGS WILL SEE MORE
SUNSHINE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING MOST AFTERNOONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST BEGINNING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD HERE IN THE
NORTHEAST AS COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES. CUTOFF LOW WILL
REMAIN PARKED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING WITH JUST VARIABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH WITH SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH AND
LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY LOOKING LIKE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY WITH ANY MORNING SUNNY
BREAKS QUICKLY GIVING WAY TO CLOUDS AND MORE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY`S WITH
READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FRIDAY NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ANY SHOWERS WILL ALSO TAPER OFF DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
500 MB CLOSED LOW BECOMES SEPARATED FROM THE FLOW THIS WEEKEND
AND LINGERS OVER THE NERN CONUS AND ERN CANADA INTO NEXT WEEK...AS
BLOCKS SET UP DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ATLANTIC...AND UPSTREAM OVER
WRN NOAM. IN A SENSE...THIS MAKES THE FORECAST SIMPLE...AS IT WILL
BE COOL ENOUGH ALOFT TO GENERATE INSTABILITY SHRA EVEN GIVEN SMALL
AMTS OF SUN...WHICH WE SHOULD SEE MOST MORNINGS. SO DAYS START OFF
WITH SOME SUN...WITH SCT SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN SOME
CLEARING AFTER SUNSET. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING 2 POSSIBLE WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW THAT COULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA ON
SATURDAY...AND AGAIN ON MON NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE UNPREDICTABLENATURE
OF TIMING THESE WAVES AROUND THE LOW...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
BEYOND SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE RUNNING 5-10 F BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE DAYS...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL AT
NIGHT...GIVEN PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND HIGHER LOW LVL MOISTURE. THE
12Z EURO TRIES TO BUILD A RIDGE BEHIND THE CLOSED LOW ON WED...AND
BACKED OFF TO SLT CHC POPS THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. VFR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WILL SEE PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS SAT THRU TUE...BUT
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. COULD SEE MORE OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AROUND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S FOR SEAS THROUGH 00Z.

LONG TERM...THE WATERS REMAIN QUIET SAT THRU MON...AS WEAK SFC LOW
MEANDERS AROUND NEAR THE WATERS. THE LOW WILL SHIFT EWD TUE...AND
S WINDS WILL INCREASE...NEARING SCA LVLS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...COOL DAMP WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 231905
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
305 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE NORTHEAST AND
MARITIMES TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND PROVIDING COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORNINGS WILL SEE MORE
SUNSHINE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING MOST AFTERNOONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST BEGINNING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD HERE IN THE
NORTHEAST AS COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES. CUTOFF LOW WILL
REMAIN PARKED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING WITH JUST VARIABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH WITH SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH AND
LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY LOOKING LIKE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY WITH ANY MORNING SUNNY
BREAKS QUICKLY GIVING WAY TO CLOUDS AND MORE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY`S WITH
READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FRIDAY NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ANY SHOWERS WILL ALSO TAPER OFF DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
500 MB CLOSED LOW BECOMES SEPARATED FROM THE FLOW THIS WEEKEND
AND LINGERS OVER THE NERN CONUS AND ERN CANADA INTO NEXT WEEK...AS
BLOCKS SET UP DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ATLANTIC...AND UPSTREAM OVER
WRN NOAM. IN A SENSE...THIS MAKES THE FORECAST SIMPLE...AS IT WILL
BE COOL ENOUGH ALOFT TO GENERATE INSTABILITY SHRA EVEN GIVEN SMALL
AMTS OF SUN...WHICH WE SHOULD SEE MOST MORNINGS. SO DAYS START OFF
WITH SOME SUN...WITH SCT SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN SOME
CLEARING AFTER SUNSET. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING 2 POSSIBLE WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW THAT COULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA ON
SATURDAY...AND AGAIN ON MON NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE UNPREDICTABLENATURE
OF TIMING THESE WAVES AROUND THE LOW...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
BEYOND SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE RUNNING 5-10 F BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE DAYS...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL AT
NIGHT...GIVEN PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND HIGHER LOW LVL MOISTURE. THE
12Z EURO TRIES TO BUILD A RIDGE BEHIND THE CLOSED LOW ON WED...AND
BACKED OFF TO SLT CHC POPS THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. VFR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WILL SEE PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS SAT THRU TUE...BUT
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. COULD SEE MORE OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AROUND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S FOR SEAS THROUGH 00Z.

LONG TERM...THE WATERS REMAIN QUIET SAT THRU MON...AS WEAK SFC LOW
MEANDERS AROUND NEAR THE WATERS. THE LOW WILL SHIFT EWD TUE...AND
S WINDS WILL INCREASE...NEARING SCA LVLS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...COOL DAMP WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 231905
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
305 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE NORTHEAST AND
MARITIMES TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND PROVIDING COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORNINGS WILL SEE MORE
SUNSHINE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING MOST AFTERNOONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST BEGINNING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD HERE IN THE
NORTHEAST AS COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES. CUTOFF LOW WILL
REMAIN PARKED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING WITH JUST VARIABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH WITH SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH AND
LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY LOOKING LIKE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY WITH ANY MORNING SUNNY
BREAKS QUICKLY GIVING WAY TO CLOUDS AND MORE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY`S WITH
READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FRIDAY NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ANY SHOWERS WILL ALSO TAPER OFF DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
500 MB CLOSED LOW BECOMES SEPARATED FROM THE FLOW THIS WEEKEND
AND LINGERS OVER THE NERN CONUS AND ERN CANADA INTO NEXT WEEK...AS
BLOCKS SET UP DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ATLANTIC...AND UPSTREAM OVER
WRN NOAM. IN A SENSE...THIS MAKES THE FORECAST SIMPLE...AS IT WILL
BE COOL ENOUGH ALOFT TO GENERATE INSTABILITY SHRA EVEN GIVEN SMALL
AMTS OF SUN...WHICH WE SHOULD SEE MOST MORNINGS. SO DAYS START OFF
WITH SOME SUN...WITH SCT SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN SOME
CLEARING AFTER SUNSET. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING 2 POSSIBLE WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW THAT COULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA ON
SATURDAY...AND AGAIN ON MON NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE UNPREDICTABLENATURE
OF TIMING THESE WAVES AROUND THE LOW...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
BEYOND SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE RUNNING 5-10 F BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE DAYS...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL AT
NIGHT...GIVEN PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND HIGHER LOW LVL MOISTURE. THE
12Z EURO TRIES TO BUILD A RIDGE BEHIND THE CLOSED LOW ON WED...AND
BACKED OFF TO SLT CHC POPS THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. VFR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WILL SEE PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS SAT THRU TUE...BUT
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. COULD SEE MORE OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AROUND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S FOR SEAS THROUGH 00Z.

LONG TERM...THE WATERS REMAIN QUIET SAT THRU MON...AS WEAK SFC LOW
MEANDERS AROUND NEAR THE WATERS. THE LOW WILL SHIFT EWD TUE...AND
S WINDS WILL INCREASE...NEARING SCA LVLS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...COOL DAMP WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231856
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
256 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH EVENING...CLOSED UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL ARE IN POSITION
OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE COLD POOL IS PROVIDING AN UNSTABLE PROFILE
THAT HAS GENERATED SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF
REPORTS OF GRAUPEL. ALSO IN THE MIX IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS GENERATED TWO OR MORE LINES OF SHOWERS AS
IT MOVED ACROSS NEW YORK...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AXIS IS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS AROUND 8 PM. WE HAVE BUMPED POPS UP ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MASS AND NORTHERN CT DUE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH.

TONIGHT...
COLD AIR SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB...AS WELL AS
SOME LIFT IN THIS LAYER. EXPECT CLOUDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET
BUT NOT COMPLETELY GOING AWAY. WEST WINDS WILL BRING AIR IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.

CLOUDS AND LINGERING WIND WILL INTERFERE WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT
OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONGLY SHELTERED SPOTS. BUT AIR TEMPS AT OR A
LITTLE BELOW 32F ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON HAS STARTED IN CT-RI AS WELL AS
IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN
AT LEAST 50% OF NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CT. FREEZING TEMPS ARE
POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST RI. EXPECTED COVERAGE IS LESS IN
SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR
HARTFORD-TOLLAND-WINDHAM COUNTIES IN CT AND WESTERN PROVIDENCE-
WESTERN KENT COUNTIES IN RI FOR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. IN
THE RI PORTION...OUR EXPECTATION IS MOSTLY TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE SCITUATE RESERVOIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP.
SHOWER/SPRINKLE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. IT/S STILL
UNSTABLE ALOFT BUT LACKING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO
ORGANIZE CONVECTION. THE MIXED LAYER REACHES NEAR 800 MB AGAIN
WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE LAYER. TEMPS NEAR THE TOP OF THE
LAYER WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND SO WE EXPECT MAX SFC TEMPS
EITHER SIDE OF 50...PERHAPS MID 50S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST BUT COLD POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY
FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT BUT MODEL GUIDENCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO LESS COLD. THIS
LEAVES LESS ROOM FOR ANY ADDITIONAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN CT. THIS
STATUS WILL BE REEVALUATED BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL THE 00Z MODELS HANDLE THE DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COMPARABLY ON FRI AND GRADUALLY SHIFT THE ENERGY OFFSHORE
SOUTHEAST CANADA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS
PREFERRED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND THE FOCUS IS ON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH WILL
MIGRATE BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BY MONDAY...AND A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE
THE MIGRATION OF THIS DESERT LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ITS
INTENSIFICATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS IT WRAPS UP INTO THE CLOSED
LOW. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION WILL BE THE
INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND WHERE
THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF SYSTEM.
CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND PHASES OVER THE PLAINS WHERE THE
EC IS LESS AMPLIFIED/MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ALLOWS THE ENERGY TO BE
THE KICKER TO PUSH THE CUTOFF LOW OUT TO SEA. TELECONNECTION INDICES
OF -NAO/+PNA DO NOT TRULY SUPPORT THE EC SOLUTION...SO TRENDED
CLOSER TO WPC AND THE GFS FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...


* SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT/SUN. THIS MAY LIMIT
SHOWER CHANCES AS BEST COLD POOL AND FORCING WILL BE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. A STRENGTHENED SURFACE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME PERIOD KEEPING MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT THIS SURFACE LOW WILL GET CAUGHT IN
THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND RETROGRADE THE LOW BACK TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THIS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. A FEW SITES MAY WARM INTO
THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD POOL WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA.
ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH DIURNAL CU DURING THE DAY.
STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT NOTHING TO CANCEL WEEKEND PLANS OVER. AREAS THAT HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE REGION...CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SPLIT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OUT WEST DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR NEW
ENGLAND...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES
OF PRECIP AS SEVERAL POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING IS
DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEHAVES.
CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A TRANSITION DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUING. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ON THURSDAY
PER THE GFS...WHERE THE 00Z EC SEEMS TO LOST THE LOW VS ITS 12Z
COUNTERPART. REGARDLESS BELIEVE BELOW AVG TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 8 PM/00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
WORCESTER HILLS AND POINTS WEST. GUSTY WEST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS
DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. AS WITH TODAY...CONDITIONS
MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

SAT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER
TO MVFR QUICKLY IN A BRIEF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. WEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25
KNOTS EARLY AND 15-20 KNOTS LATE. SEAS AT 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND RI WATERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THIS EVENING AND MOST WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS. A FEW SPOTS MAY
APPROACH 25 KNOTS...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND. SEAS LINGER
AT 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ON THOSE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL LINGER BETWEEN 4-5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING EACH DAY. HOWEVER EXPECTING BOTH WIND AND SEAS TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WAS MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS COMBINED WITH
TIDAL INFLUENCES AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. THE RIVER
NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS UNDER STRONG TIDAL INFLUENCE. AS A
RESULT...THE RIVER IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT HIGH TIDE AND NEAR FLOOD
STAGE AT LOW TIDE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TREND LOWER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF CYCLES...WITH A HIGH TIDE CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 231856
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
256 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH EVENING...CLOSED UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL ARE IN POSITION
OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE COLD POOL IS PROVIDING AN UNSTABLE PROFILE
THAT HAS GENERATED SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF
REPORTS OF GRAUPEL. ALSO IN THE MIX IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS GENERATED TWO OR MORE LINES OF SHOWERS AS
IT MOVED ACROSS NEW YORK...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AXIS IS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS AROUND 8 PM. WE HAVE BUMPED POPS UP ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MASS AND NORTHERN CT DUE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH.

TONIGHT...
COLD AIR SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB...AS WELL AS
SOME LIFT IN THIS LAYER. EXPECT CLOUDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET
BUT NOT COMPLETELY GOING AWAY. WEST WINDS WILL BRING AIR IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.

CLOUDS AND LINGERING WIND WILL INTERFERE WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT
OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONGLY SHELTERED SPOTS. BUT AIR TEMPS AT OR A
LITTLE BELOW 32F ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON HAS STARTED IN CT-RI AS WELL AS
IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN
AT LEAST 50% OF NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CT. FREEZING TEMPS ARE
POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST RI. EXPECTED COVERAGE IS LESS IN
SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR
HARTFORD-TOLLAND-WINDHAM COUNTIES IN CT AND WESTERN PROVIDENCE-
WESTERN KENT COUNTIES IN RI FOR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. IN
THE RI PORTION...OUR EXPECTATION IS MOSTLY TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE SCITUATE RESERVOIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP.
SHOWER/SPRINKLE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. IT/S STILL
UNSTABLE ALOFT BUT LACKING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO
ORGANIZE CONVECTION. THE MIXED LAYER REACHES NEAR 800 MB AGAIN
WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE LAYER. TEMPS NEAR THE TOP OF THE
LAYER WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND SO WE EXPECT MAX SFC TEMPS
EITHER SIDE OF 50...PERHAPS MID 50S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST BUT COLD POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY
FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT BUT MODEL GUIDENCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO LESS COLD. THIS
LEAVES LESS ROOM FOR ANY ADDITIONAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN CT. THIS
STATUS WILL BE REEVALUATED BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL THE 00Z MODELS HANDLE THE DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COMPARABLY ON FRI AND GRADUALLY SHIFT THE ENERGY OFFSHORE
SOUTHEAST CANADA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS
PREFERRED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND THE FOCUS IS ON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH WILL
MIGRATE BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BY MONDAY...AND A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE
THE MIGRATION OF THIS DESERT LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ITS
INTENSIFICATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS IT WRAPS UP INTO THE CLOSED
LOW. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION WILL BE THE
INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND WHERE
THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF SYSTEM.
CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND PHASES OVER THE PLAINS WHERE THE
EC IS LESS AMPLIFIED/MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ALLOWS THE ENERGY TO BE
THE KICKER TO PUSH THE CUTOFF LOW OUT TO SEA. TELECONNECTION INDICES
OF -NAO/+PNA DO NOT TRULY SUPPORT THE EC SOLUTION...SO TRENDED
CLOSER TO WPC AND THE GFS FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...


* SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT/SUN. THIS MAY LIMIT
SHOWER CHANCES AS BEST COLD POOL AND FORCING WILL BE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. A STRENGTHENED SURFACE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME PERIOD KEEPING MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT THIS SURFACE LOW WILL GET CAUGHT IN
THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND RETROGRADE THE LOW BACK TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THIS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. A FEW SITES MAY WARM INTO
THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD POOL WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA.
ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH DIURNAL CU DURING THE DAY.
STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT NOTHING TO CANCEL WEEKEND PLANS OVER. AREAS THAT HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE REGION...CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SPLIT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OUT WEST DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR NEW
ENGLAND...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES
OF PRECIP AS SEVERAL POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING IS
DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEHAVES.
CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A TRANSITION DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUING. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ON THURSDAY
PER THE GFS...WHERE THE 00Z EC SEEMS TO LOST THE LOW VS ITS 12Z
COUNTERPART. REGARDLESS BELIEVE BELOW AVG TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 8 PM/00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
WORCESTER HILLS AND POINTS WEST. GUSTY WEST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS
DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. AS WITH TODAY...CONDITIONS
MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

SAT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER
TO MVFR QUICKLY IN A BRIEF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. WEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25
KNOTS EARLY AND 15-20 KNOTS LATE. SEAS AT 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND RI WATERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THIS EVENING AND MOST WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS. A FEW SPOTS MAY
APPROACH 25 KNOTS...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND. SEAS LINGER
AT 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ON THOSE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL LINGER BETWEEN 4-5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING EACH DAY. HOWEVER EXPECTING BOTH WIND AND SEAS TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WAS MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS COMBINED WITH
TIDAL INFLUENCES AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. THE RIVER
NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS UNDER STRONG TIDAL INFLUENCE. AS A
RESULT...THE RIVER IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT HIGH TIDE AND NEAR FLOOD
STAGE AT LOW TIDE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TREND LOWER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF CYCLES...WITH A HIGH TIDE CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 231856
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
256 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH EVENING...CLOSED UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL ARE IN POSITION
OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE COLD POOL IS PROVIDING AN UNSTABLE PROFILE
THAT HAS GENERATED SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF
REPORTS OF GRAUPEL. ALSO IN THE MIX IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS GENERATED TWO OR MORE LINES OF SHOWERS AS
IT MOVED ACROSS NEW YORK...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AXIS IS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS AROUND 8 PM. WE HAVE BUMPED POPS UP ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MASS AND NORTHERN CT DUE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH.

TONIGHT...
COLD AIR SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB...AS WELL AS
SOME LIFT IN THIS LAYER. EXPECT CLOUDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET
BUT NOT COMPLETELY GOING AWAY. WEST WINDS WILL BRING AIR IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.

CLOUDS AND LINGERING WIND WILL INTERFERE WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT
OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONGLY SHELTERED SPOTS. BUT AIR TEMPS AT OR A
LITTLE BELOW 32F ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON HAS STARTED IN CT-RI AS WELL AS
IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN
AT LEAST 50% OF NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CT. FREEZING TEMPS ARE
POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST RI. EXPECTED COVERAGE IS LESS IN
SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR
HARTFORD-TOLLAND-WINDHAM COUNTIES IN CT AND WESTERN PROVIDENCE-
WESTERN KENT COUNTIES IN RI FOR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. IN
THE RI PORTION...OUR EXPECTATION IS MOSTLY TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE SCITUATE RESERVOIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP.
SHOWER/SPRINKLE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. IT/S STILL
UNSTABLE ALOFT BUT LACKING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO
ORGANIZE CONVECTION. THE MIXED LAYER REACHES NEAR 800 MB AGAIN
WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE LAYER. TEMPS NEAR THE TOP OF THE
LAYER WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND SO WE EXPECT MAX SFC TEMPS
EITHER SIDE OF 50...PERHAPS MID 50S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST BUT COLD POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY
FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT BUT MODEL GUIDENCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO LESS COLD. THIS
LEAVES LESS ROOM FOR ANY ADDITIONAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN CT. THIS
STATUS WILL BE REEVALUATED BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL THE 00Z MODELS HANDLE THE DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COMPARABLY ON FRI AND GRADUALLY SHIFT THE ENERGY OFFSHORE
SOUTHEAST CANADA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS
PREFERRED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND THE FOCUS IS ON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH WILL
MIGRATE BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BY MONDAY...AND A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE
THE MIGRATION OF THIS DESERT LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ITS
INTENSIFICATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS IT WRAPS UP INTO THE CLOSED
LOW. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION WILL BE THE
INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND WHERE
THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF SYSTEM.
CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND PHASES OVER THE PLAINS WHERE THE
EC IS LESS AMPLIFIED/MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ALLOWS THE ENERGY TO BE
THE KICKER TO PUSH THE CUTOFF LOW OUT TO SEA. TELECONNECTION INDICES
OF -NAO/+PNA DO NOT TRULY SUPPORT THE EC SOLUTION...SO TRENDED
CLOSER TO WPC AND THE GFS FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...


* SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT/SUN. THIS MAY LIMIT
SHOWER CHANCES AS BEST COLD POOL AND FORCING WILL BE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. A STRENGTHENED SURFACE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME PERIOD KEEPING MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT THIS SURFACE LOW WILL GET CAUGHT IN
THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND RETROGRADE THE LOW BACK TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THIS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. A FEW SITES MAY WARM INTO
THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD POOL WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA.
ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH DIURNAL CU DURING THE DAY.
STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT NOTHING TO CANCEL WEEKEND PLANS OVER. AREAS THAT HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE REGION...CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SPLIT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OUT WEST DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR NEW
ENGLAND...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES
OF PRECIP AS SEVERAL POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING IS
DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEHAVES.
CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A TRANSITION DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUING. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ON THURSDAY
PER THE GFS...WHERE THE 00Z EC SEEMS TO LOST THE LOW VS ITS 12Z
COUNTERPART. REGARDLESS BELIEVE BELOW AVG TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 8 PM/00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
WORCESTER HILLS AND POINTS WEST. GUSTY WEST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS
DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. AS WITH TODAY...CONDITIONS
MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

SAT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER
TO MVFR QUICKLY IN A BRIEF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. WEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25
KNOTS EARLY AND 15-20 KNOTS LATE. SEAS AT 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND RI WATERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THIS EVENING AND MOST WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS. A FEW SPOTS MAY
APPROACH 25 KNOTS...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND. SEAS LINGER
AT 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ON THOSE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL LINGER BETWEEN 4-5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING EACH DAY. HOWEVER EXPECTING BOTH WIND AND SEAS TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WAS MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS COMBINED WITH
TIDAL INFLUENCES AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. THE RIVER
NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS UNDER STRONG TIDAL INFLUENCE. AS A
RESULT...THE RIVER IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT HIGH TIDE AND NEAR FLOOD
STAGE AT LOW TIDE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TREND LOWER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF CYCLES...WITH A HIGH TIDE CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 231856
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
256 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH EVENING...CLOSED UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL ARE IN POSITION
OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE COLD POOL IS PROVIDING AN UNSTABLE PROFILE
THAT HAS GENERATED SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF
REPORTS OF GRAUPEL. ALSO IN THE MIX IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS GENERATED TWO OR MORE LINES OF SHOWERS AS
IT MOVED ACROSS NEW YORK...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AXIS IS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS AROUND 8 PM. WE HAVE BUMPED POPS UP ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MASS AND NORTHERN CT DUE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH.

TONIGHT...
COLD AIR SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB...AS WELL AS
SOME LIFT IN THIS LAYER. EXPECT CLOUDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET
BUT NOT COMPLETELY GOING AWAY. WEST WINDS WILL BRING AIR IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.

CLOUDS AND LINGERING WIND WILL INTERFERE WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT
OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONGLY SHELTERED SPOTS. BUT AIR TEMPS AT OR A
LITTLE BELOW 32F ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON HAS STARTED IN CT-RI AS WELL AS
IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN
AT LEAST 50% OF NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CT. FREEZING TEMPS ARE
POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST RI. EXPECTED COVERAGE IS LESS IN
SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR
HARTFORD-TOLLAND-WINDHAM COUNTIES IN CT AND WESTERN PROVIDENCE-
WESTERN KENT COUNTIES IN RI FOR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. IN
THE RI PORTION...OUR EXPECTATION IS MOSTLY TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE SCITUATE RESERVOIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP.
SHOWER/SPRINKLE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. IT/S STILL
UNSTABLE ALOFT BUT LACKING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO
ORGANIZE CONVECTION. THE MIXED LAYER REACHES NEAR 800 MB AGAIN
WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE LAYER. TEMPS NEAR THE TOP OF THE
LAYER WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND SO WE EXPECT MAX SFC TEMPS
EITHER SIDE OF 50...PERHAPS MID 50S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST BUT COLD POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY
FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT BUT MODEL GUIDENCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO LESS COLD. THIS
LEAVES LESS ROOM FOR ANY ADDITIONAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN CT. THIS
STATUS WILL BE REEVALUATED BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL THE 00Z MODELS HANDLE THE DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COMPARABLY ON FRI AND GRADUALLY SHIFT THE ENERGY OFFSHORE
SOUTHEAST CANADA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS
PREFERRED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND THE FOCUS IS ON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH WILL
MIGRATE BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BY MONDAY...AND A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE
THE MIGRATION OF THIS DESERT LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ITS
INTENSIFICATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS IT WRAPS UP INTO THE CLOSED
LOW. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION WILL BE THE
INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND WHERE
THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF SYSTEM.
CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND PHASES OVER THE PLAINS WHERE THE
EC IS LESS AMPLIFIED/MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ALLOWS THE ENERGY TO BE
THE KICKER TO PUSH THE CUTOFF LOW OUT TO SEA. TELECONNECTION INDICES
OF -NAO/+PNA DO NOT TRULY SUPPORT THE EC SOLUTION...SO TRENDED
CLOSER TO WPC AND THE GFS FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...


* SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT/SUN. THIS MAY LIMIT
SHOWER CHANCES AS BEST COLD POOL AND FORCING WILL BE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. A STRENGTHENED SURFACE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME PERIOD KEEPING MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT THIS SURFACE LOW WILL GET CAUGHT IN
THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND RETROGRADE THE LOW BACK TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THIS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. A FEW SITES MAY WARM INTO
THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD POOL WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA.
ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH DIURNAL CU DURING THE DAY.
STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT NOTHING TO CANCEL WEEKEND PLANS OVER. AREAS THAT HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE REGION...CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SPLIT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OUT WEST DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR NEW
ENGLAND...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES
OF PRECIP AS SEVERAL POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING IS
DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEHAVES.
CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A TRANSITION DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUING. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ON THURSDAY
PER THE GFS...WHERE THE 00Z EC SEEMS TO LOST THE LOW VS ITS 12Z
COUNTERPART. REGARDLESS BELIEVE BELOW AVG TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 8 PM/00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
WORCESTER HILLS AND POINTS WEST. GUSTY WEST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS
DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. AS WITH TODAY...CONDITIONS
MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

SAT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER
TO MVFR QUICKLY IN A BRIEF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. WEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25
KNOTS EARLY AND 15-20 KNOTS LATE. SEAS AT 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND RI WATERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THIS EVENING AND MOST WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS. A FEW SPOTS MAY
APPROACH 25 KNOTS...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND. SEAS LINGER
AT 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ON THOSE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL LINGER BETWEEN 4-5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING EACH DAY. HOWEVER EXPECTING BOTH WIND AND SEAS TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WAS MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS COMBINED WITH
TIDAL INFLUENCES AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. THE RIVER
NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS UNDER STRONG TIDAL INFLUENCE. AS A
RESULT...THE RIVER IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT HIGH TIDE AND NEAR FLOOD
STAGE AT LOW TIDE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TREND LOWER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF CYCLES...WITH A HIGH TIDE CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 231856
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
256 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH EVENING...CLOSED UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL ARE IN POSITION
OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE COLD POOL IS PROVIDING AN UNSTABLE PROFILE
THAT HAS GENERATED SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF
REPORTS OF GRAUPEL. ALSO IN THE MIX IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS GENERATED TWO OR MORE LINES OF SHOWERS AS
IT MOVED ACROSS NEW YORK...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AXIS IS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS AROUND 8 PM. WE HAVE BUMPED POPS UP ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MASS AND NORTHERN CT DUE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH.

TONIGHT...
COLD AIR SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB...AS WELL AS
SOME LIFT IN THIS LAYER. EXPECT CLOUDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET
BUT NOT COMPLETELY GOING AWAY. WEST WINDS WILL BRING AIR IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.

CLOUDS AND LINGERING WIND WILL INTERFERE WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT
OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONGLY SHELTERED SPOTS. BUT AIR TEMPS AT OR A
LITTLE BELOW 32F ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON HAS STARTED IN CT-RI AS WELL AS
IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN
AT LEAST 50% OF NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CT. FREEZING TEMPS ARE
POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST RI. EXPECTED COVERAGE IS LESS IN
SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR
HARTFORD-TOLLAND-WINDHAM COUNTIES IN CT AND WESTERN PROVIDENCE-
WESTERN KENT COUNTIES IN RI FOR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. IN
THE RI PORTION...OUR EXPECTATION IS MOSTLY TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE SCITUATE RESERVOIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP.
SHOWER/SPRINKLE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. IT/S STILL
UNSTABLE ALOFT BUT LACKING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO
ORGANIZE CONVECTION. THE MIXED LAYER REACHES NEAR 800 MB AGAIN
WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE LAYER. TEMPS NEAR THE TOP OF THE
LAYER WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND SO WE EXPECT MAX SFC TEMPS
EITHER SIDE OF 50...PERHAPS MID 50S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST BUT COLD POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY
FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT BUT MODEL GUIDENCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO LESS COLD. THIS
LEAVES LESS ROOM FOR ANY ADDITIONAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN CT. THIS
STATUS WILL BE REEVALUATED BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL THE 00Z MODELS HANDLE THE DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COMPARABLY ON FRI AND GRADUALLY SHIFT THE ENERGY OFFSHORE
SOUTHEAST CANADA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS
PREFERRED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND THE FOCUS IS ON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH WILL
MIGRATE BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BY MONDAY...AND A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE
THE MIGRATION OF THIS DESERT LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ITS
INTENSIFICATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS IT WRAPS UP INTO THE CLOSED
LOW. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION WILL BE THE
INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND WHERE
THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF SYSTEM.
CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND PHASES OVER THE PLAINS WHERE THE
EC IS LESS AMPLIFIED/MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ALLOWS THE ENERGY TO BE
THE KICKER TO PUSH THE CUTOFF LOW OUT TO SEA. TELECONNECTION INDICES
OF -NAO/+PNA DO NOT TRULY SUPPORT THE EC SOLUTION...SO TRENDED
CLOSER TO WPC AND THE GFS FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...


* SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT/SUN. THIS MAY LIMIT
SHOWER CHANCES AS BEST COLD POOL AND FORCING WILL BE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. A STRENGTHENED SURFACE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME PERIOD KEEPING MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT THIS SURFACE LOW WILL GET CAUGHT IN
THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND RETROGRADE THE LOW BACK TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THIS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. A FEW SITES MAY WARM INTO
THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD POOL WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA.
ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH DIURNAL CU DURING THE DAY.
STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT NOTHING TO CANCEL WEEKEND PLANS OVER. AREAS THAT HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE REGION...CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SPLIT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OUT WEST DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR NEW
ENGLAND...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES
OF PRECIP AS SEVERAL POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING IS
DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEHAVES.
CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A TRANSITION DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUING. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ON THURSDAY
PER THE GFS...WHERE THE 00Z EC SEEMS TO LOST THE LOW VS ITS 12Z
COUNTERPART. REGARDLESS BELIEVE BELOW AVG TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 8 PM/00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
WORCESTER HILLS AND POINTS WEST. GUSTY WEST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS
DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. AS WITH TODAY...CONDITIONS
MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

SAT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER
TO MVFR QUICKLY IN A BRIEF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. WEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25
KNOTS EARLY AND 15-20 KNOTS LATE. SEAS AT 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND RI WATERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THIS EVENING AND MOST WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS. A FEW SPOTS MAY
APPROACH 25 KNOTS...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND. SEAS LINGER
AT 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ON THOSE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL LINGER BETWEEN 4-5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING EACH DAY. HOWEVER EXPECTING BOTH WIND AND SEAS TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WAS MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS COMBINED WITH
TIDAL INFLUENCES AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. THE RIVER
NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS UNDER STRONG TIDAL INFLUENCE. AS A
RESULT...THE RIVER IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT HIGH TIDE AND NEAR FLOOD
STAGE AT LOW TIDE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TREND LOWER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF CYCLES...WITH A HIGH TIDE CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231856
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
256 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH EVENING...CLOSED UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL ARE IN POSITION
OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE COLD POOL IS PROVIDING AN UNSTABLE PROFILE
THAT HAS GENERATED SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF
REPORTS OF GRAUPEL. ALSO IN THE MIX IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS GENERATED TWO OR MORE LINES OF SHOWERS AS
IT MOVED ACROSS NEW YORK...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AXIS IS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS AROUND 8 PM. WE HAVE BUMPED POPS UP ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MASS AND NORTHERN CT DUE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH.

TONIGHT...
COLD AIR SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB...AS WELL AS
SOME LIFT IN THIS LAYER. EXPECT CLOUDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET
BUT NOT COMPLETELY GOING AWAY. WEST WINDS WILL BRING AIR IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.

CLOUDS AND LINGERING WIND WILL INTERFERE WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT
OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONGLY SHELTERED SPOTS. BUT AIR TEMPS AT OR A
LITTLE BELOW 32F ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON HAS STARTED IN CT-RI AS WELL AS
IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN
AT LEAST 50% OF NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CT. FREEZING TEMPS ARE
POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST RI. EXPECTED COVERAGE IS LESS IN
SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR
HARTFORD-TOLLAND-WINDHAM COUNTIES IN CT AND WESTERN PROVIDENCE-
WESTERN KENT COUNTIES IN RI FOR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. IN
THE RI PORTION...OUR EXPECTATION IS MOSTLY TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE SCITUATE RESERVOIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP.
SHOWER/SPRINKLE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. IT/S STILL
UNSTABLE ALOFT BUT LACKING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO
ORGANIZE CONVECTION. THE MIXED LAYER REACHES NEAR 800 MB AGAIN
WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE LAYER. TEMPS NEAR THE TOP OF THE
LAYER WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND SO WE EXPECT MAX SFC TEMPS
EITHER SIDE OF 50...PERHAPS MID 50S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST BUT COLD POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY
FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT BUT MODEL GUIDENCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO LESS COLD. THIS
LEAVES LESS ROOM FOR ANY ADDITIONAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN CT. THIS
STATUS WILL BE REEVALUATED BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL THE 00Z MODELS HANDLE THE DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COMPARABLY ON FRI AND GRADUALLY SHIFT THE ENERGY OFFSHORE
SOUTHEAST CANADA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS
PREFERRED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND THE FOCUS IS ON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH WILL
MIGRATE BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BY MONDAY...AND A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE
THE MIGRATION OF THIS DESERT LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ITS
INTENSIFICATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS IT WRAPS UP INTO THE CLOSED
LOW. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION WILL BE THE
INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND WHERE
THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF SYSTEM.
CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND PHASES OVER THE PLAINS WHERE THE
EC IS LESS AMPLIFIED/MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ALLOWS THE ENERGY TO BE
THE KICKER TO PUSH THE CUTOFF LOW OUT TO SEA. TELECONNECTION INDICES
OF -NAO/+PNA DO NOT TRULY SUPPORT THE EC SOLUTION...SO TRENDED
CLOSER TO WPC AND THE GFS FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...


* SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT/SUN. THIS MAY LIMIT
SHOWER CHANCES AS BEST COLD POOL AND FORCING WILL BE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. A STRENGTHENED SURFACE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME PERIOD KEEPING MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT THIS SURFACE LOW WILL GET CAUGHT IN
THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND RETROGRADE THE LOW BACK TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THIS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. A FEW SITES MAY WARM INTO
THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD POOL WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA.
ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH DIURNAL CU DURING THE DAY.
STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT NOTHING TO CANCEL WEEKEND PLANS OVER. AREAS THAT HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE REGION...CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SPLIT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OUT WEST DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR NEW
ENGLAND...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES
OF PRECIP AS SEVERAL POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING IS
DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEHAVES.
CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A TRANSITION DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUING. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ON THURSDAY
PER THE GFS...WHERE THE 00Z EC SEEMS TO LOST THE LOW VS ITS 12Z
COUNTERPART. REGARDLESS BELIEVE BELOW AVG TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 8 PM/00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
WORCESTER HILLS AND POINTS WEST. GUSTY WEST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS
DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. AS WITH TODAY...CONDITIONS
MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

SAT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER
TO MVFR QUICKLY IN A BRIEF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. WEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25
KNOTS EARLY AND 15-20 KNOTS LATE. SEAS AT 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND RI WATERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THIS EVENING AND MOST WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS. A FEW SPOTS MAY
APPROACH 25 KNOTS...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND. SEAS LINGER
AT 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ON THOSE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL LINGER BETWEEN 4-5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING EACH DAY. HOWEVER EXPECTING BOTH WIND AND SEAS TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WAS MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS COMBINED WITH
TIDAL INFLUENCES AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. THE RIVER
NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS UNDER STRONG TIDAL INFLUENCE. AS A
RESULT...THE RIVER IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT HIGH TIDE AND NEAR FLOOD
STAGE AT LOW TIDE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TREND LOWER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF CYCLES...WITH A HIGH TIDE CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231856
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
256 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH EVENING...CLOSED UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL ARE IN POSITION
OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE COLD POOL IS PROVIDING AN UNSTABLE PROFILE
THAT HAS GENERATED SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF
REPORTS OF GRAUPEL. ALSO IN THE MIX IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS GENERATED TWO OR MORE LINES OF SHOWERS AS
IT MOVED ACROSS NEW YORK...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AXIS IS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS AROUND 8 PM. WE HAVE BUMPED POPS UP ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MASS AND NORTHERN CT DUE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH.

TONIGHT...
COLD AIR SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB...AS WELL AS
SOME LIFT IN THIS LAYER. EXPECT CLOUDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET
BUT NOT COMPLETELY GOING AWAY. WEST WINDS WILL BRING AIR IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.

CLOUDS AND LINGERING WIND WILL INTERFERE WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT
OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONGLY SHELTERED SPOTS. BUT AIR TEMPS AT OR A
LITTLE BELOW 32F ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON HAS STARTED IN CT-RI AS WELL AS
IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN
AT LEAST 50% OF NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CT. FREEZING TEMPS ARE
POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST RI. EXPECTED COVERAGE IS LESS IN
SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR
HARTFORD-TOLLAND-WINDHAM COUNTIES IN CT AND WESTERN PROVIDENCE-
WESTERN KENT COUNTIES IN RI FOR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. IN
THE RI PORTION...OUR EXPECTATION IS MOSTLY TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE SCITUATE RESERVOIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP.
SHOWER/SPRINKLE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. IT/S STILL
UNSTABLE ALOFT BUT LACKING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO
ORGANIZE CONVECTION. THE MIXED LAYER REACHES NEAR 800 MB AGAIN
WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE LAYER. TEMPS NEAR THE TOP OF THE
LAYER WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND SO WE EXPECT MAX SFC TEMPS
EITHER SIDE OF 50...PERHAPS MID 50S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST BUT COLD POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY
FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT BUT MODEL GUIDENCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO LESS COLD. THIS
LEAVES LESS ROOM FOR ANY ADDITIONAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN CT. THIS
STATUS WILL BE REEVALUATED BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL THE 00Z MODELS HANDLE THE DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COMPARABLY ON FRI AND GRADUALLY SHIFT THE ENERGY OFFSHORE
SOUTHEAST CANADA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS
PREFERRED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND THE FOCUS IS ON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH WILL
MIGRATE BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BY MONDAY...AND A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE
THE MIGRATION OF THIS DESERT LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ITS
INTENSIFICATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS IT WRAPS UP INTO THE CLOSED
LOW. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION WILL BE THE
INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND WHERE
THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF SYSTEM.
CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND PHASES OVER THE PLAINS WHERE THE
EC IS LESS AMPLIFIED/MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ALLOWS THE ENERGY TO BE
THE KICKER TO PUSH THE CUTOFF LOW OUT TO SEA. TELECONNECTION INDICES
OF -NAO/+PNA DO NOT TRULY SUPPORT THE EC SOLUTION...SO TRENDED
CLOSER TO WPC AND THE GFS FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...


* SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT/SUN. THIS MAY LIMIT
SHOWER CHANCES AS BEST COLD POOL AND FORCING WILL BE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. A STRENGTHENED SURFACE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME PERIOD KEEPING MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT THIS SURFACE LOW WILL GET CAUGHT IN
THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND RETROGRADE THE LOW BACK TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THIS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. A FEW SITES MAY WARM INTO
THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD POOL WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA.
ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH DIURNAL CU DURING THE DAY.
STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT NOTHING TO CANCEL WEEKEND PLANS OVER. AREAS THAT HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE REGION...CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SPLIT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OUT WEST DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR NEW
ENGLAND...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES
OF PRECIP AS SEVERAL POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING IS
DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEHAVES.
CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A TRANSITION DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUING. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ON THURSDAY
PER THE GFS...WHERE THE 00Z EC SEEMS TO LOST THE LOW VS ITS 12Z
COUNTERPART. REGARDLESS BELIEVE BELOW AVG TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 8 PM/00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
WORCESTER HILLS AND POINTS WEST. GUSTY WEST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS
DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. AS WITH TODAY...CONDITIONS
MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

SAT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER
TO MVFR QUICKLY IN A BRIEF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. WEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25
KNOTS EARLY AND 15-20 KNOTS LATE. SEAS AT 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND RI WATERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THIS EVENING AND MOST WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS. A FEW SPOTS MAY
APPROACH 25 KNOTS...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND. SEAS LINGER
AT 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ON THOSE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL LINGER BETWEEN 4-5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING EACH DAY. HOWEVER EXPECTING BOTH WIND AND SEAS TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WAS MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS COMBINED WITH
TIDAL INFLUENCES AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. THE RIVER
NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS UNDER STRONG TIDAL INFLUENCE. AS A
RESULT...THE RIVER IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT HIGH TIDE AND NEAR FLOOD
STAGE AT LOW TIDE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TREND LOWER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF CYCLES...WITH A HIGH TIDE CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231856
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
256 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH EVENING...CLOSED UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL ARE IN POSITION
OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE COLD POOL IS PROVIDING AN UNSTABLE PROFILE
THAT HAS GENERATED SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF
REPORTS OF GRAUPEL. ALSO IN THE MIX IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS GENERATED TWO OR MORE LINES OF SHOWERS AS
IT MOVED ACROSS NEW YORK...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AXIS IS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS AROUND 8 PM. WE HAVE BUMPED POPS UP ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MASS AND NORTHERN CT DUE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH.

TONIGHT...
COLD AIR SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB...AS WELL AS
SOME LIFT IN THIS LAYER. EXPECT CLOUDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET
BUT NOT COMPLETELY GOING AWAY. WEST WINDS WILL BRING AIR IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.

CLOUDS AND LINGERING WIND WILL INTERFERE WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT
OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONGLY SHELTERED SPOTS. BUT AIR TEMPS AT OR A
LITTLE BELOW 32F ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON HAS STARTED IN CT-RI AS WELL AS
IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN
AT LEAST 50% OF NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CT. FREEZING TEMPS ARE
POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST RI. EXPECTED COVERAGE IS LESS IN
SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR
HARTFORD-TOLLAND-WINDHAM COUNTIES IN CT AND WESTERN PROVIDENCE-
WESTERN KENT COUNTIES IN RI FOR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. IN
THE RI PORTION...OUR EXPECTATION IS MOSTLY TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE SCITUATE RESERVOIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP.
SHOWER/SPRINKLE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. IT/S STILL
UNSTABLE ALOFT BUT LACKING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO
ORGANIZE CONVECTION. THE MIXED LAYER REACHES NEAR 800 MB AGAIN
WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE LAYER. TEMPS NEAR THE TOP OF THE
LAYER WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND SO WE EXPECT MAX SFC TEMPS
EITHER SIDE OF 50...PERHAPS MID 50S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST BUT COLD POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY
FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT BUT MODEL GUIDENCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO LESS COLD. THIS
LEAVES LESS ROOM FOR ANY ADDITIONAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN CT. THIS
STATUS WILL BE REEVALUATED BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL THE 00Z MODELS HANDLE THE DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COMPARABLY ON FRI AND GRADUALLY SHIFT THE ENERGY OFFSHORE
SOUTHEAST CANADA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS
PREFERRED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND THE FOCUS IS ON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH WILL
MIGRATE BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BY MONDAY...AND A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE
THE MIGRATION OF THIS DESERT LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ITS
INTENSIFICATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS IT WRAPS UP INTO THE CLOSED
LOW. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION WILL BE THE
INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND WHERE
THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF SYSTEM.
CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND PHASES OVER THE PLAINS WHERE THE
EC IS LESS AMPLIFIED/MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ALLOWS THE ENERGY TO BE
THE KICKER TO PUSH THE CUTOFF LOW OUT TO SEA. TELECONNECTION INDICES
OF -NAO/+PNA DO NOT TRULY SUPPORT THE EC SOLUTION...SO TRENDED
CLOSER TO WPC AND THE GFS FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...


* SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT/SUN. THIS MAY LIMIT
SHOWER CHANCES AS BEST COLD POOL AND FORCING WILL BE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. A STRENGTHENED SURFACE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME PERIOD KEEPING MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT THIS SURFACE LOW WILL GET CAUGHT IN
THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND RETROGRADE THE LOW BACK TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THIS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. A FEW SITES MAY WARM INTO
THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD POOL WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA.
ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH DIURNAL CU DURING THE DAY.
STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT NOTHING TO CANCEL WEEKEND PLANS OVER. AREAS THAT HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE REGION...CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SPLIT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OUT WEST DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR NEW
ENGLAND...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES
OF PRECIP AS SEVERAL POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING IS
DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEHAVES.
CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A TRANSITION DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUING. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ON THURSDAY
PER THE GFS...WHERE THE 00Z EC SEEMS TO LOST THE LOW VS ITS 12Z
COUNTERPART. REGARDLESS BELIEVE BELOW AVG TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 8 PM/00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
WORCESTER HILLS AND POINTS WEST. GUSTY WEST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS
DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. AS WITH TODAY...CONDITIONS
MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

SAT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER
TO MVFR QUICKLY IN A BRIEF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. WEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25
KNOTS EARLY AND 15-20 KNOTS LATE. SEAS AT 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND RI WATERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THIS EVENING AND MOST WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS. A FEW SPOTS MAY
APPROACH 25 KNOTS...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND. SEAS LINGER
AT 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ON THOSE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL LINGER BETWEEN 4-5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING EACH DAY. HOWEVER EXPECTING BOTH WIND AND SEAS TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WAS MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS COMBINED WITH
TIDAL INFLUENCES AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. THE RIVER
NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS UNDER STRONG TIDAL INFLUENCE. AS A
RESULT...THE RIVER IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT HIGH TIDE AND NEAR FLOOD
STAGE AT LOW TIDE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TREND LOWER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF CYCLES...WITH A HIGH TIDE CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231855
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
255 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THROUGH EVENING...CLOSED UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL ARE IN POSITION
OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE COLD POOL IS PROVIDING AN UNSTABLE PROFILE
THAT HAS GENERATED SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF
REPORTS OF GRAUPEL. ALSO IN THE MIX IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS GENERATED TWO OR MORE LINES OF SHOWERS AS
IT MOVED ACROSS NEW YORK...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AXIS IS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS AROUND 8 PM. WE HAVE BUMPED POPS UP ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MASS AND NORTHERN CT DUE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH.

TONIGHT...
COLD AIR SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB...AS WELL AS
SOME LIFT IN THIS LAYER. EXPECT CLOUDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET
BUT NOT COMPLETELY GOING AWAY. WEST WINDS WILL BRING AIR IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.

CLOUDS AND LINGERING WIND WILL INTERFERE WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT
OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONGLY SHELTERED SPOTS. BUT AIR TEMPS AT OR A
LITTLE BELOW 32F ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON HAS STARTED IN CT-RI AS WELL AS
IN SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN
AT LEAST 50% OF NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CT. FREEZING TEMPS ARE
POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST RI. EXPECTED COVERAGE IS LESS IN
SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MASS. WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR
HARTFORD-TOLLAND-WINDHAM COUNTIES IN CT AND WESTERN PROVIDENCE-
WESTERN KENT COUNTIES IN RI FOR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. IN
THE RI PORTION...OUR EXPECTATION IS MOSTLY TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE SCITUATE RESERVOIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP.
SHOWER/SPRINKLE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. IT/S STILL
UNSTABLE ALOFT BUT LACKING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO
ORGANIZE CONVECTION. THE MIXED LAYER REACHES NEAR 800 MB AGAIN
WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE LAYER. TEMPS NEAR THE TOP OF THE
LAYER WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND SO WE EXPECT MAX SFC TEMPS
EITHER SIDE OF 50...PERHAPS MID 50S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST BUT COLD POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY
FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT BUT MODEL GUIDENCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO LESS COLD. THIS
LEAVES LESS ROOM FOR ANY ADDITIONAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN CT. THIS
STATUS WILL BE REEVALUATED BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL THE 00Z MODELS HANDLE THE DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COMPARABLY ON FRI AND GRADUALLY SHIFT THE ENERGY OFFSHORE
SOUTHEAST CANADA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS
PREFERRED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND THE FOCUS IS ON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH WILL
MIGRATE BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BY MONDAY...AND A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE
THE MIGRATION OF THIS DESERT LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ITS
INTENSIFICATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS IT WRAPS UP INTO THE CLOSED
LOW. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION WILL BE THE
INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND WHERE
THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF SYSTEM.
CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND PHASES OVER THE PLAINS WHERE THE
EC IS LESS AMPLIFIED/MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ALLOWS THE ENERGY TO BE
THE KICKER TO PUSH THE CUTOFF LOW OUT TO SEA. TELECONNECTION INDICES
OF -NAO/+PNA DO NOT TRULY SUPPORT THE EC SOLUTION...SO TRENDED
CLOSER TO WPC AND THE GFS FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...


* SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT/SUN. THIS MAY LIMIT
SHOWER CHANCES AS BEST COLD POOL AND FORCING WILL BE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. A STRENGTHENED SURFACE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME PERIOD KEEPING MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT THIS SURFACE LOW WILL GET CAUGHT IN
THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND RETROGRADE THE LOW BACK TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THIS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. A FEW SITES MAY WARM INTO
THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD POOL WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA.
ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH DIURNAL CU DURING THE DAY.
STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT NOTHING TO CANCEL WEEKEND PLANS OVER. AREAS THAT HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE REGION...CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SPLIT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OUT WEST DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR NEW
ENGLAND...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES
OF PRECIP AS SEVERAL POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING IS
DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEHAVES.
CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A TRANSITION DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUING. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ON THURSDAY
PER THE GFS...WHERE THE 00Z EC SEEMS TO LOST THE LOW VS ITS 12Z
COUNTERPART. REGARDLESS BELIEVE BELOW AVG TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 8 PM/00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
WORCESTER HILLS AND POINTS WEST. GUSTY WEST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS
DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. AS WITH TODAY...CONDITIONS
MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

SAT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER
TO MVFR QUICKLY IN A BRIEF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. WEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25
KNOTS EARLY AND 15-20 KNOTS LATE. SEAS AT 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND RI WATERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THIS EVENING AND MOST WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS. A FEW SPOTS MAY
APPROACH 25 KNOTS...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND. SEAS LINGER
AT 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ON THOSE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL LINGER BETWEEN 4-5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING EACH DAY. HOWEVER EXPECTING BOTH WIND AND SEAS TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WAS MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS COMBINED WITH
TIDAL INFLUENCES AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. THE RIVER
NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS UNDER STRONG TIDAL INFLUENCE. AS A
RESULT...THE RIVER IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT HIGH TIDE AND NEAR FLOOD
STAGE AT LOW TIDE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TREND LOWER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF CYCLES...WITH A HIGH TIDE CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 231532
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1132 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
15Z UPDATE...
MORNING SUN HAS GIVEN WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE LATE THIS MORNING. ALONG WITH THE
CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DRIFTING OUT OF THE FOOTHILLS INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN MAINE RIGHT DOWN
TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER NORTH IN THE COOLER AIR
PRECIPITATION IS BEING REPORTED IN THE FORM OF OCCASIONAL WET SNOW
SHOWERS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL PARK OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
HAVE UPDATED POP AND SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND ASIDE
FROM A FEW TEMP TWEAKS NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DUISCUSSION:
COLD UPPER LOW HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. WILL EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO BE MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY LATER THIS MORNING
AS A LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WIND DEVELOPS POSSIBLY ENOUGH
TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES FROM A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO 50 NEAR THE COAST
SEEMS REASONABLE. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
GENERALLY CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE. THE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE DUE TO
THE UPPER BLOCKING PATTERN AND THUS THE PERSISTENT QUASI-
STATIONARY LOW OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BUT LOWER POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HOPING THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS HAVE ENOUGH OF AN EFFECT
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO KEEP LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING SUFFICIENT TO
LIMIT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS EVEN THOUGH SOME INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STALLED UPPER LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION EITHER FULLY OR
IN PART FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT... EXPECT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY WITH THE TYPICAL APRIL
GRAUPEL EXPECTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN NORMAL... THOUGH GRADUALLY INCREASING WITH TIME AS THE CORE
COLD AIR WITHIN THE LOW SLOWLY MODERATES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT MVFR IN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM... GENERALLY VFR BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL SMALL HAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VERY
STABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS AND THE WIND FORECAST
MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY CALM
SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY WET AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE MANY ARE RUNNING HIGH...ALL RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW FLOOD STAGE IN THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 231532
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1132 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
15Z UPDATE...
MORNING SUN HAS GIVEN WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE LATE THIS MORNING. ALONG WITH THE
CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DRIFTING OUT OF THE FOOTHILLS INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN MAINE RIGHT DOWN
TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER NORTH IN THE COOLER AIR
PRECIPITATION IS BEING REPORTED IN THE FORM OF OCCASIONAL WET SNOW
SHOWERS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL PARK OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
HAVE UPDATED POP AND SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND ASIDE
FROM A FEW TEMP TWEAKS NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DUISCUSSION:
COLD UPPER LOW HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. WILL EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO BE MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY LATER THIS MORNING
AS A LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WIND DEVELOPS POSSIBLY ENOUGH
TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES FROM A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO 50 NEAR THE COAST
SEEMS REASONABLE. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
GENERALLY CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE. THE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE DUE TO
THE UPPER BLOCKING PATTERN AND THUS THE PERSISTENT QUASI-
STATIONARY LOW OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BUT LOWER POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HOPING THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS HAVE ENOUGH OF AN EFFECT
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO KEEP LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING SUFFICIENT TO
LIMIT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS EVEN THOUGH SOME INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STALLED UPPER LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION EITHER FULLY OR
IN PART FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT... EXPECT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY WITH THE TYPICAL APRIL
GRAUPEL EXPECTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN NORMAL... THOUGH GRADUALLY INCREASING WITH TIME AS THE CORE
COLD AIR WITHIN THE LOW SLOWLY MODERATES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT MVFR IN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM... GENERALLY VFR BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL SMALL HAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VERY
STABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS AND THE WIND FORECAST
MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY CALM
SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY WET AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE MANY ARE RUNNING HIGH...ALL RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW FLOOD STAGE IN THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 231532
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1132 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
15Z UPDATE...
MORNING SUN HAS GIVEN WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE LATE THIS MORNING. ALONG WITH THE
CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DRIFTING OUT OF THE FOOTHILLS INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN MAINE RIGHT DOWN
TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER NORTH IN THE COOLER AIR
PRECIPITATION IS BEING REPORTED IN THE FORM OF OCCASIONAL WET SNOW
SHOWERS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL PARK OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
HAVE UPDATED POP AND SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND ASIDE
FROM A FEW TEMP TWEAKS NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DUISCUSSION:
COLD UPPER LOW HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. WILL EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO BE MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY LATER THIS MORNING
AS A LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WIND DEVELOPS POSSIBLY ENOUGH
TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES FROM A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO 50 NEAR THE COAST
SEEMS REASONABLE. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
GENERALLY CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE. THE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE DUE TO
THE UPPER BLOCKING PATTERN AND THUS THE PERSISTENT QUASI-
STATIONARY LOW OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BUT LOWER POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HOPING THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS HAVE ENOUGH OF AN EFFECT
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO KEEP LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING SUFFICIENT TO
LIMIT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS EVEN THOUGH SOME INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STALLED UPPER LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION EITHER FULLY OR
IN PART FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT... EXPECT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY WITH THE TYPICAL APRIL
GRAUPEL EXPECTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN NORMAL... THOUGH GRADUALLY INCREASING WITH TIME AS THE CORE
COLD AIR WITHIN THE LOW SLOWLY MODERATES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT MVFR IN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM... GENERALLY VFR BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL SMALL HAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VERY
STABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS AND THE WIND FORECAST
MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY CALM
SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY WET AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE MANY ARE RUNNING HIGH...ALL RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW FLOOD STAGE IN THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231407
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1007 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

CLOSED UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL ARE IN POSITION OVER NEW ENGLAND.
THE COLD POOL IS PROVIDING A POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE PROFILE. LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7.5C/KM. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE CU AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. SMALL
SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW MAY ALSO CONTIBUTE TO A FEW
SHOWERS.

WINDS ALOFT OVER BOS AND JFK HAVE BEEN AROUND 20 KNOTS. BUT
OBSERVED GUSTS AT WORCESTER AND BRADLEY HAVE REACHED 23 KNOTS.
GUST POTENTIAL SHOULD BE 20-25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING POTENTIAL
PER THE MODELS IS AS HIGH AS 800 MB AND REACHES WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 25 KNOTS. WE HAVE BUMPED GUSTS UP A FEW KNOTS TO ALIGN
WITH THIS. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW OBSERVED TEMPS AT THE TOP OF
THIS LAYER AT -6C TO -11C...SO SOLAR HEATING HAS THE POTENTIAL OF
GENERATING MAX SFC TEMPS OF UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
SKY COVER OVERNIGHT AND SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN
SOME WIND. WHILE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS QUESTIONABLE...ADVECTION
COOLING IS STILL IN PLAY. MIN TEMPS UNDER THE COLD POOL CLOUDS
LAST NIGHT WERE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FARTHER UPSTREAM. WE STILL
EXPECT MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. IF SKIES DID
CLEAR AND WE WERE TO RADIATE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD FALL TO
THE MID 20S OVER A WIDE PORTION OF THE INTERIOR.

THIS SETS UP A LITTLE PREDICAMENT. THE STRONGER WINDS AND AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLOUD COVER SHOULD NEGATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION. BASED ON THE MEDIAN DATE OF THE
LAST FREEZE...AM ONLY CONCERNED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CT...RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA AT THIS TIME. THINKING THERE WILL BE PATCHY
FROST...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY. A FEW
OF THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS COULD REACH FREEZING. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY KIND OF AN
ADVISORY OR WARNING. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT
THIS POTENTIAL.

AS WITH TODAY...WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS
DEVELOP DURING FRIDAY...ALONG WITH MORE SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS. AT
THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE MASS PIKE...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A QUICK SPRINKLE EVEN SOUTH
OF THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL THE 00Z MODELS HANDLE THE DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COMPARABLY ON FRI AND GRADUALLY SHIFT THE ENERGY OFFSHORE
SOUTHEAST CANADA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS
PREFERRED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND THE FOCUS IS ON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH WILL
MIGRATE BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BY MONDAY...AND A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE
THE MIGRATION OF THIS DESERT LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ITS
INTENSIFICATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS IT WRAPS UP INTO THE CLOSED
LOW. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION WILL BE THE
INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND WHERE
THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF SYSTEM.
CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND PHASES OVER THE PLAINS WHERE THE
EC IS LESS AMPLIFIED/MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ALLOWS THE ENERGY TO BE
THE KICKER TO PUSH THE CUTOFF LOW OUT TO SEA. TELECONNECTION INDICES
OF -NAO/+PNA DO NOT TRULY SUPPORT THE EC SOLUTION...SO TRENDED
CLOSER TO WPC AND THE GFS FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...


* SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT/SUN. THIS MAY LIMIT
SHOWER CHANCES AS BEST COLD POOL AND FORCING WILL BE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. A STRENGTHENED SURFACE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME PERIOD KEEPING MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT THIS SURFACE LOW WILL GET CAUGHT IN
THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND RETROGRADE THE LOW BACK TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THIS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. A FEW SITES MAY WARM INTO
THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD POOL WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA.
ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH DIURNAL CU DURING THE DAY.
STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT NOTHING TO CANCEL WEEKEND PLANS OVER. AREAS THAT HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE REGION...CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SPLIT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OUT WEST DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR NEW
ENGLAND...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES
OF PRECIP AS SEVERAL POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING IS
DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEHAVES.
CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A TRANSITION DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUING. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ON THURSDAY
PER THE GFS...WHERE THE 00Z EC SEEMS TO LOST THE LOW VS ITS 12Z
COUNTERPART. REGARDLESS BELIEVE BELOW AVG TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
BRIEF...SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN/WESTERN MASS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

SAT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER
TO MVFR QUICKLY IN A BRIEF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE CLOSER TO SHORE. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE MIXING
POTENTIAL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
GUSTS OF 25 KT POSSIBLE. OBSERVED LAND WINDS HAVE GUSTED AS HIGH
AS 23 KNOTS. HAVE OPTED FOR SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER ALL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. MUCH EASIER DECISION ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS...WHERE LINGERING SWELL HAS SEAS OVER 5 FEET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEST WINDS DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT REMAIN
GUSTING NEAR 20 KNOTS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS/SWELL SUBSIDE A
LITTLE BUT MAINTAIN 5-6 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER
WATERS.

FRIDAY...EXPECT W-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS REMAINING
AT OR ABOVE 5 FT...MAINLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING EACH DAY. HOWEVER EXPECTING BOTH WIND AND SEAS TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WAS MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS COMBINED WITH
TIDAL INFLUENCES AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. THE RIVER
NEAR HARTFORD IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH ITS FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS
MORNING. NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM...THE TIDAL INFLUENCE WILL BE
STRONGER. MINOR FLOODING IS ONGOING DURING AT LEAST A PART OF EACH
TIDE CYCLE. THIS IS EXPECTED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/BELK/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 231407
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1007 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

CLOSED UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL ARE IN POSITION OVER NEW ENGLAND.
THE COLD POOL IS PROVIDING A POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE PROFILE. LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7.5C/KM. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE CU AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. SMALL
SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW MAY ALSO CONTIBUTE TO A FEW
SHOWERS.

WINDS ALOFT OVER BOS AND JFK HAVE BEEN AROUND 20 KNOTS. BUT
OBSERVED GUSTS AT WORCESTER AND BRADLEY HAVE REACHED 23 KNOTS.
GUST POTENTIAL SHOULD BE 20-25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING POTENTIAL
PER THE MODELS IS AS HIGH AS 800 MB AND REACHES WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 25 KNOTS. WE HAVE BUMPED GUSTS UP A FEW KNOTS TO ALIGN
WITH THIS. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW OBSERVED TEMPS AT THE TOP OF
THIS LAYER AT -6C TO -11C...SO SOLAR HEATING HAS THE POTENTIAL OF
GENERATING MAX SFC TEMPS OF UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
SKY COVER OVERNIGHT AND SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN
SOME WIND. WHILE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS QUESTIONABLE...ADVECTION
COOLING IS STILL IN PLAY. MIN TEMPS UNDER THE COLD POOL CLOUDS
LAST NIGHT WERE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FARTHER UPSTREAM. WE STILL
EXPECT MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. IF SKIES DID
CLEAR AND WE WERE TO RADIATE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD FALL TO
THE MID 20S OVER A WIDE PORTION OF THE INTERIOR.

THIS SETS UP A LITTLE PREDICAMENT. THE STRONGER WINDS AND AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLOUD COVER SHOULD NEGATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION. BASED ON THE MEDIAN DATE OF THE
LAST FREEZE...AM ONLY CONCERNED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CT...RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA AT THIS TIME. THINKING THERE WILL BE PATCHY
FROST...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY. A FEW
OF THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS COULD REACH FREEZING. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY KIND OF AN
ADVISORY OR WARNING. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT
THIS POTENTIAL.

AS WITH TODAY...WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS
DEVELOP DURING FRIDAY...ALONG WITH MORE SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS. AT
THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE MASS PIKE...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A QUICK SPRINKLE EVEN SOUTH
OF THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL THE 00Z MODELS HANDLE THE DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COMPARABLY ON FRI AND GRADUALLY SHIFT THE ENERGY OFFSHORE
SOUTHEAST CANADA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS
PREFERRED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND THE FOCUS IS ON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH WILL
MIGRATE BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BY MONDAY...AND A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE
THE MIGRATION OF THIS DESERT LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ITS
INTENSIFICATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS IT WRAPS UP INTO THE CLOSED
LOW. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION WILL BE THE
INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND WHERE
THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF SYSTEM.
CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND PHASES OVER THE PLAINS WHERE THE
EC IS LESS AMPLIFIED/MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ALLOWS THE ENERGY TO BE
THE KICKER TO PUSH THE CUTOFF LOW OUT TO SEA. TELECONNECTION INDICES
OF -NAO/+PNA DO NOT TRULY SUPPORT THE EC SOLUTION...SO TRENDED
CLOSER TO WPC AND THE GFS FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...


* SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT/SUN. THIS MAY LIMIT
SHOWER CHANCES AS BEST COLD POOL AND FORCING WILL BE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. A STRENGTHENED SURFACE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME PERIOD KEEPING MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT THIS SURFACE LOW WILL GET CAUGHT IN
THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND RETROGRADE THE LOW BACK TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THIS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. A FEW SITES MAY WARM INTO
THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD POOL WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA.
ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH DIURNAL CU DURING THE DAY.
STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT NOTHING TO CANCEL WEEKEND PLANS OVER. AREAS THAT HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE REGION...CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SPLIT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OUT WEST DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR NEW
ENGLAND...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES
OF PRECIP AS SEVERAL POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING IS
DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEHAVES.
CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A TRANSITION DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUING. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ON THURSDAY
PER THE GFS...WHERE THE 00Z EC SEEMS TO LOST THE LOW VS ITS 12Z
COUNTERPART. REGARDLESS BELIEVE BELOW AVG TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
BRIEF...SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN/WESTERN MASS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

SAT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER
TO MVFR QUICKLY IN A BRIEF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE CLOSER TO SHORE. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE MIXING
POTENTIAL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
GUSTS OF 25 KT POSSIBLE. OBSERVED LAND WINDS HAVE GUSTED AS HIGH
AS 23 KNOTS. HAVE OPTED FOR SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER ALL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. MUCH EASIER DECISION ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS...WHERE LINGERING SWELL HAS SEAS OVER 5 FEET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEST WINDS DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT REMAIN
GUSTING NEAR 20 KNOTS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS/SWELL SUBSIDE A
LITTLE BUT MAINTAIN 5-6 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER
WATERS.

FRIDAY...EXPECT W-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS REMAINING
AT OR ABOVE 5 FT...MAINLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING EACH DAY. HOWEVER EXPECTING BOTH WIND AND SEAS TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WAS MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS COMBINED WITH
TIDAL INFLUENCES AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. THE RIVER
NEAR HARTFORD IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH ITS FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS
MORNING. NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM...THE TIDAL INFLUENCE WILL BE
STRONGER. MINOR FLOODING IS ONGOING DURING AT LEAST A PART OF EACH
TIDE CYCLE. THIS IS EXPECTED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/BELK/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231407
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1007 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

CLOSED UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL ARE IN POSITION OVER NEW ENGLAND.
THE COLD POOL IS PROVIDING A POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE PROFILE. LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7.5C/KM. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE CU AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. SMALL
SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW MAY ALSO CONTIBUTE TO A FEW
SHOWERS.

WINDS ALOFT OVER BOS AND JFK HAVE BEEN AROUND 20 KNOTS. BUT
OBSERVED GUSTS AT WORCESTER AND BRADLEY HAVE REACHED 23 KNOTS.
GUST POTENTIAL SHOULD BE 20-25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING POTENTIAL
PER THE MODELS IS AS HIGH AS 800 MB AND REACHES WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 25 KNOTS. WE HAVE BUMPED GUSTS UP A FEW KNOTS TO ALIGN
WITH THIS. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW OBSERVED TEMPS AT THE TOP OF
THIS LAYER AT -6C TO -11C...SO SOLAR HEATING HAS THE POTENTIAL OF
GENERATING MAX SFC TEMPS OF UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
SKY COVER OVERNIGHT AND SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN
SOME WIND. WHILE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS QUESTIONABLE...ADVECTION
COOLING IS STILL IN PLAY. MIN TEMPS UNDER THE COLD POOL CLOUDS
LAST NIGHT WERE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FARTHER UPSTREAM. WE STILL
EXPECT MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. IF SKIES DID
CLEAR AND WE WERE TO RADIATE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD FALL TO
THE MID 20S OVER A WIDE PORTION OF THE INTERIOR.

THIS SETS UP A LITTLE PREDICAMENT. THE STRONGER WINDS AND AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLOUD COVER SHOULD NEGATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION. BASED ON THE MEDIAN DATE OF THE
LAST FREEZE...AM ONLY CONCERNED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CT...RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA AT THIS TIME. THINKING THERE WILL BE PATCHY
FROST...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY. A FEW
OF THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS COULD REACH FREEZING. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY KIND OF AN
ADVISORY OR WARNING. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT
THIS POTENTIAL.

AS WITH TODAY...WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS
DEVELOP DURING FRIDAY...ALONG WITH MORE SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS. AT
THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE MASS PIKE...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A QUICK SPRINKLE EVEN SOUTH
OF THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL THE 00Z MODELS HANDLE THE DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COMPARABLY ON FRI AND GRADUALLY SHIFT THE ENERGY OFFSHORE
SOUTHEAST CANADA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS
PREFERRED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND THE FOCUS IS ON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH WILL
MIGRATE BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BY MONDAY...AND A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE
THE MIGRATION OF THIS DESERT LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ITS
INTENSIFICATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS IT WRAPS UP INTO THE CLOSED
LOW. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION WILL BE THE
INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND WHERE
THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF SYSTEM.
CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND PHASES OVER THE PLAINS WHERE THE
EC IS LESS AMPLIFIED/MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ALLOWS THE ENERGY TO BE
THE KICKER TO PUSH THE CUTOFF LOW OUT TO SEA. TELECONNECTION INDICES
OF -NAO/+PNA DO NOT TRULY SUPPORT THE EC SOLUTION...SO TRENDED
CLOSER TO WPC AND THE GFS FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...


* SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT/SUN. THIS MAY LIMIT
SHOWER CHANCES AS BEST COLD POOL AND FORCING WILL BE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. A STRENGTHENED SURFACE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME PERIOD KEEPING MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT THIS SURFACE LOW WILL GET CAUGHT IN
THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND RETROGRADE THE LOW BACK TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THIS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. A FEW SITES MAY WARM INTO
THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD POOL WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA.
ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH DIURNAL CU DURING THE DAY.
STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT NOTHING TO CANCEL WEEKEND PLANS OVER. AREAS THAT HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE REGION...CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SPLIT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OUT WEST DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR NEW
ENGLAND...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES
OF PRECIP AS SEVERAL POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING IS
DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEHAVES.
CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A TRANSITION DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUING. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ON THURSDAY
PER THE GFS...WHERE THE 00Z EC SEEMS TO LOST THE LOW VS ITS 12Z
COUNTERPART. REGARDLESS BELIEVE BELOW AVG TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
BRIEF...SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN/WESTERN MASS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

SAT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER
TO MVFR QUICKLY IN A BRIEF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE CLOSER TO SHORE. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE MIXING
POTENTIAL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
GUSTS OF 25 KT POSSIBLE. OBSERVED LAND WINDS HAVE GUSTED AS HIGH
AS 23 KNOTS. HAVE OPTED FOR SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER ALL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. MUCH EASIER DECISION ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS...WHERE LINGERING SWELL HAS SEAS OVER 5 FEET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEST WINDS DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT REMAIN
GUSTING NEAR 20 KNOTS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS/SWELL SUBSIDE A
LITTLE BUT MAINTAIN 5-6 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER
WATERS.

FRIDAY...EXPECT W-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS REMAINING
AT OR ABOVE 5 FT...MAINLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING EACH DAY. HOWEVER EXPECTING BOTH WIND AND SEAS TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WAS MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS COMBINED WITH
TIDAL INFLUENCES AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. THE RIVER
NEAR HARTFORD IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH ITS FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS
MORNING. NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM...THE TIDAL INFLUENCE WILL BE
STRONGER. MINOR FLOODING IS ONGOING DURING AT LEAST A PART OF EACH
TIDE CYCLE. THIS IS EXPECTED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/BELK/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231407
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1007 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

CLOSED UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL ARE IN POSITION OVER NEW ENGLAND.
THE COLD POOL IS PROVIDING A POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE PROFILE. LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7.5C/KM. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE CU AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. SMALL
SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW MAY ALSO CONTIBUTE TO A FEW
SHOWERS.

WINDS ALOFT OVER BOS AND JFK HAVE BEEN AROUND 20 KNOTS. BUT
OBSERVED GUSTS AT WORCESTER AND BRADLEY HAVE REACHED 23 KNOTS.
GUST POTENTIAL SHOULD BE 20-25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING POTENTIAL
PER THE MODELS IS AS HIGH AS 800 MB AND REACHES WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 25 KNOTS. WE HAVE BUMPED GUSTS UP A FEW KNOTS TO ALIGN
WITH THIS. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW OBSERVED TEMPS AT THE TOP OF
THIS LAYER AT -6C TO -11C...SO SOLAR HEATING HAS THE POTENTIAL OF
GENERATING MAX SFC TEMPS OF UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
SKY COVER OVERNIGHT AND SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN
SOME WIND. WHILE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS QUESTIONABLE...ADVECTION
COOLING IS STILL IN PLAY. MIN TEMPS UNDER THE COLD POOL CLOUDS
LAST NIGHT WERE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FARTHER UPSTREAM. WE STILL
EXPECT MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. IF SKIES DID
CLEAR AND WE WERE TO RADIATE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD FALL TO
THE MID 20S OVER A WIDE PORTION OF THE INTERIOR.

THIS SETS UP A LITTLE PREDICAMENT. THE STRONGER WINDS AND AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLOUD COVER SHOULD NEGATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION. BASED ON THE MEDIAN DATE OF THE
LAST FREEZE...AM ONLY CONCERNED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CT...RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA AT THIS TIME. THINKING THERE WILL BE PATCHY
FROST...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY. A FEW
OF THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS COULD REACH FREEZING. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY KIND OF AN
ADVISORY OR WARNING. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT
THIS POTENTIAL.

AS WITH TODAY...WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS
DEVELOP DURING FRIDAY...ALONG WITH MORE SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS. AT
THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE MASS PIKE...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A QUICK SPRINKLE EVEN SOUTH
OF THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL THE 00Z MODELS HANDLE THE DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COMPARABLY ON FRI AND GRADUALLY SHIFT THE ENERGY OFFSHORE
SOUTHEAST CANADA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS
PREFERRED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND THE FOCUS IS ON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH WILL
MIGRATE BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BY MONDAY...AND A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE
THE MIGRATION OF THIS DESERT LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ITS
INTENSIFICATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS IT WRAPS UP INTO THE CLOSED
LOW. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION WILL BE THE
INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND WHERE
THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF SYSTEM.
CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND PHASES OVER THE PLAINS WHERE THE
EC IS LESS AMPLIFIED/MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ALLOWS THE ENERGY TO BE
THE KICKER TO PUSH THE CUTOFF LOW OUT TO SEA. TELECONNECTION INDICES
OF -NAO/+PNA DO NOT TRULY SUPPORT THE EC SOLUTION...SO TRENDED
CLOSER TO WPC AND THE GFS FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...


* SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT/SUN. THIS MAY LIMIT
SHOWER CHANCES AS BEST COLD POOL AND FORCING WILL BE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. A STRENGTHENED SURFACE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME PERIOD KEEPING MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT THIS SURFACE LOW WILL GET CAUGHT IN
THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND RETROGRADE THE LOW BACK TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THIS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. A FEW SITES MAY WARM INTO
THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD POOL WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA.
ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH DIURNAL CU DURING THE DAY.
STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT NOTHING TO CANCEL WEEKEND PLANS OVER. AREAS THAT HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE REGION...CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SPLIT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OUT WEST DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR NEW
ENGLAND...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES
OF PRECIP AS SEVERAL POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING IS
DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEHAVES.
CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A TRANSITION DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUING. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ON THURSDAY
PER THE GFS...WHERE THE 00Z EC SEEMS TO LOST THE LOW VS ITS 12Z
COUNTERPART. REGARDLESS BELIEVE BELOW AVG TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
BRIEF...SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN/WESTERN MASS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

SAT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER
TO MVFR QUICKLY IN A BRIEF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE CLOSER TO SHORE. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE MIXING
POTENTIAL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
GUSTS OF 25 KT POSSIBLE. OBSERVED LAND WINDS HAVE GUSTED AS HIGH
AS 23 KNOTS. HAVE OPTED FOR SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER ALL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. MUCH EASIER DECISION ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS...WHERE LINGERING SWELL HAS SEAS OVER 5 FEET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEST WINDS DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT REMAIN
GUSTING NEAR 20 KNOTS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS/SWELL SUBSIDE A
LITTLE BUT MAINTAIN 5-6 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER
WATERS.

FRIDAY...EXPECT W-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS REMAINING
AT OR ABOVE 5 FT...MAINLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING EACH DAY. HOWEVER EXPECTING BOTH WIND AND SEAS TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WAS MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS COMBINED WITH
TIDAL INFLUENCES AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. THE RIVER
NEAR HARTFORD IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH ITS FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS
MORNING. NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM...THE TIDAL INFLUENCE WILL BE
STRONGER. MINOR FLOODING IS ONGOING DURING AT LEAST A PART OF EACH
TIDE CYCLE. THIS IS EXPECTED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/BELK/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 231106
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
706 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

730 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE MORNING HOURS. COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR WESTERLY WINDS. A FEW SCT
SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRY TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN
MASS. ADDED A SLIGHT CHC IN THE FORECAST BUT WITH TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREAD INCREASING SEEMS THAT VIRGA MAY BE THE MAIN ISSUE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTY WINDS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CUTOFF UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD POOL ALOFT IN PLACE. DAYTIME HEATING MAY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS AND GENERATE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. MIXING MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 800 MB...WHERE TEMPERATURES
OF -8C TO -10C WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S. WINDS IN THIS MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST AT 20-25 KT. SO
GUSTS WITHIN THIS RANGE ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
SKY COVER OVERNIGHT AND SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN
SOME WIND. WHILE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS QUESTIONABLE...ADVECTION
COOLING IS STILL IN PLAY. MIN TEMPS UNDER THE COLD POOL CLOUDS
LAST NIGHT WERE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FARTHER UPSTREAM. WE STILL
EXPECT MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. IF SKIES DID
CLEAR AND WE WERE TO RADIATE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD FALL TO
THE MID 20S OVER A WIDE PORTION OF THE INTERIOR.

THIS SETS UP A LITTLE PREDICAMENT. THE STRONGER WINDS AND AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLOUD COVER SHOULD NEGATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION. BASED ON THE MEDIAN DATE OF THE
LAST FREEZE...AM ONLY CONCERNED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CT...RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA AT THIS TIME. THINKING THERE WILL BE PATCHY
FROST...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY. A FEW
OF THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS COULD REACH FREEZING. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY KIND OF AN
ADVISORY OR WARNING. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT
THIS POTENTIAL.

AS WITH TODAY...WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS
DEVELOP DURING FRIDAY...ALONG WITH MORE SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS. AT
THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE MASS PIKE...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A QUICK SPRINKLE EVEN SOUTH
OF THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL THE 00Z MODELS HANDLE THE DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COMPARABLY ON FRI AND GRADUALLY SHIFT THE ENERGY OFFSHORE
SOUTHEAST CANADA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS
PREFERRED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND THE FOCUS IS ON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH WILL
MIGRATE BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BY MONDAY...AND A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE
THE MIGRATION OF THIS DESERT LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ITS
INTENSIFICATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS IT WRAPS UP INTO THE CLOSED
LOW. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION WILL BE THE
INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND WHERE
THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF SYSTEM.
CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND PHASES OVER THE PLAINS WHERE THE
EC IS LESS AMPLIFIED/MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ALLOWS THE ENERGY TO BE
THE KICKER TO PUSH THE CUTOFF LOW OUT TO SEA. TELECONNECTION INDICES
OF -NAO/+PNA DO NOT TRULY SUPPORT THE EC SOLUTION...SO TRENDED
CLOSER TO WPC AND THE GFS FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...


* SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT/SUN. THIS MAY LIMIT
SHOWER CHANCES AS BEST COLD POOL AND FORCING WILL BE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. A STRENGTHENED SURFACE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME PERIOD KEEPING MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT THIS SURFACE LOW WILL GET CAUGHT IN
THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND RETROGRADE THE LOW BACK TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THIS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. A FEW SITES MAY WARM INTO
THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD POOL WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA.
ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH DIURNAL CU DURING THE DAY.
STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT NOTHING TO CANCEL WEEKEND PLANS OVER. AREAS THAT HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE REGION...CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SPLIT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OUT WEST DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR NEW
ENGLAND...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES
OF PRECIP AS SEVERAL POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING IS
DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEHAVES.
CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A TRANSITION DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUING. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ON THURSDAY
PER THE GFS...WHERE THE 00Z EC SEEMS TO LOST THE LOW VS ITS 12Z
COUNTERPART. REGARDLESS BELIEVE BELOW AVG TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. BRIEF...SPOTTY DIURNAL
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN/WESTERN MASS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

SAT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER
TO MVFR QUICKLY IN A BRIEF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE CLOSER TO SHORE. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE MIXING
POTENTIAL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
GUSTS OF 25 KT POSSIBLE. JUST NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH WE WILL SEE THE
REQUIRED DURATION OF THE GUSTS TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. MUCH EASIER
DECISION ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...WHERE LINGERING SWELL
HAS SEAS OVER 5 FEET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEST WINDS DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT REMAIN
GUSTING NEAR 20 KNOTS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS/SWELL SUBSIDE A
LITTLE BUT MAINTAIN 5-6 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER
WATERS.

FRIDAY...EXPECT W-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS REMAINING
AT OR ABOVE 5 FT...MAINLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING EACH DAY. HOWEVER EXPECTING BOTH WIND AND SEAS TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WAS MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS COMBINED WITH
TIDAL INFLUENCES AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. THE RIVER
NEAR HARTFORD IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH ITS FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS
MORNING. NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM...THE TIDAL INFLUENCE WILL BE
STRONGER. MINOR FLOODING IS ONGOING DURING AT LEAST A PART OF EACH
TIDE CYCLE. THIS IS EXPECTED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-
     233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231106
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
706 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

730 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE MORNING HOURS. COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR WESTERLY WINDS. A FEW SCT
SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRY TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN
MASS. ADDED A SLIGHT CHC IN THE FORECAST BUT WITH TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREAD INCREASING SEEMS THAT VIRGA MAY BE THE MAIN ISSUE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTY WINDS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CUTOFF UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD POOL ALOFT IN PLACE. DAYTIME HEATING MAY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS AND GENERATE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. MIXING MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 800 MB...WHERE TEMPERATURES
OF -8C TO -10C WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S. WINDS IN THIS MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST AT 20-25 KT. SO
GUSTS WITHIN THIS RANGE ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
SKY COVER OVERNIGHT AND SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN
SOME WIND. WHILE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS QUESTIONABLE...ADVECTION
COOLING IS STILL IN PLAY. MIN TEMPS UNDER THE COLD POOL CLOUDS
LAST NIGHT WERE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FARTHER UPSTREAM. WE STILL
EXPECT MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. IF SKIES DID
CLEAR AND WE WERE TO RADIATE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD FALL TO
THE MID 20S OVER A WIDE PORTION OF THE INTERIOR.

THIS SETS UP A LITTLE PREDICAMENT. THE STRONGER WINDS AND AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLOUD COVER SHOULD NEGATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION. BASED ON THE MEDIAN DATE OF THE
LAST FREEZE...AM ONLY CONCERNED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CT...RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA AT THIS TIME. THINKING THERE WILL BE PATCHY
FROST...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY. A FEW
OF THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS COULD REACH FREEZING. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY KIND OF AN
ADVISORY OR WARNING. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT
THIS POTENTIAL.

AS WITH TODAY...WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS
DEVELOP DURING FRIDAY...ALONG WITH MORE SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS. AT
THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE MASS PIKE...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A QUICK SPRINKLE EVEN SOUTH
OF THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL THE 00Z MODELS HANDLE THE DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COMPARABLY ON FRI AND GRADUALLY SHIFT THE ENERGY OFFSHORE
SOUTHEAST CANADA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS
PREFERRED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND THE FOCUS IS ON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH WILL
MIGRATE BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BY MONDAY...AND A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE
THE MIGRATION OF THIS DESERT LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ITS
INTENSIFICATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS IT WRAPS UP INTO THE CLOSED
LOW. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION WILL BE THE
INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND WHERE
THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF SYSTEM.
CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND PHASES OVER THE PLAINS WHERE THE
EC IS LESS AMPLIFIED/MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ALLOWS THE ENERGY TO BE
THE KICKER TO PUSH THE CUTOFF LOW OUT TO SEA. TELECONNECTION INDICES
OF -NAO/+PNA DO NOT TRULY SUPPORT THE EC SOLUTION...SO TRENDED
CLOSER TO WPC AND THE GFS FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...


* SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT/SUN. THIS MAY LIMIT
SHOWER CHANCES AS BEST COLD POOL AND FORCING WILL BE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. A STRENGTHENED SURFACE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME PERIOD KEEPING MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT THIS SURFACE LOW WILL GET CAUGHT IN
THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND RETROGRADE THE LOW BACK TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THIS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. A FEW SITES MAY WARM INTO
THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD POOL WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA.
ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH DIURNAL CU DURING THE DAY.
STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT NOTHING TO CANCEL WEEKEND PLANS OVER. AREAS THAT HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE REGION...CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SPLIT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OUT WEST DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR NEW
ENGLAND...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES
OF PRECIP AS SEVERAL POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING IS
DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEHAVES.
CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A TRANSITION DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUING. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ON THURSDAY
PER THE GFS...WHERE THE 00Z EC SEEMS TO LOST THE LOW VS ITS 12Z
COUNTERPART. REGARDLESS BELIEVE BELOW AVG TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. BRIEF...SPOTTY DIURNAL
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN/WESTERN MASS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

SAT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER
TO MVFR QUICKLY IN A BRIEF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE CLOSER TO SHORE. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE MIXING
POTENTIAL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
GUSTS OF 25 KT POSSIBLE. JUST NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH WE WILL SEE THE
REQUIRED DURATION OF THE GUSTS TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. MUCH EASIER
DECISION ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...WHERE LINGERING SWELL
HAS SEAS OVER 5 FEET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEST WINDS DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT REMAIN
GUSTING NEAR 20 KNOTS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS/SWELL SUBSIDE A
LITTLE BUT MAINTAIN 5-6 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER
WATERS.

FRIDAY...EXPECT W-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS REMAINING
AT OR ABOVE 5 FT...MAINLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING EACH DAY. HOWEVER EXPECTING BOTH WIND AND SEAS TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WAS MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS COMBINED WITH
TIDAL INFLUENCES AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. THE RIVER
NEAR HARTFORD IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH ITS FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS
MORNING. NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM...THE TIDAL INFLUENCE WILL BE
STRONGER. MINOR FLOODING IS ONGOING DURING AT LEAST A PART OF EACH
TIDE CYCLE. THIS IS EXPECTED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-
     233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 231102
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
702 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE: DRY SLOT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE WITH CLEARING SKIES. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND POPS
TO REFLECT THE DRY SLOT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MINOR TWEAKS
TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DUISCUSSION:
COLD UPPER LOW HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. WILL EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO BE MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY LATER THIS MORNING
AS A LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WIND DEVELOPS POSSIBLY ENOUGH
TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES FROM A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO 50 NEAR THE COAST
SEEMS REASONABLE. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
GENERALLY CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE. THE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE DUE TO
THE UPPER BLOCKING PATTERN AND THUS THE PERSISTENT QUASI-
STATIONARY LOW OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BUT LOWER POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HOPING THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS HAVE ENOUGH OF AN EFFECT
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO KEEP LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING SUFFICIENT TO
LIMIT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS EVEN THOUGH SOME INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STALLED UPPER LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION EITHER FULLY OR
IN PART FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT... EXPECT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY WITH THE TYPICAL APRIL
GRAUPEL EXPECTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN NORMAL... THOUGH GRADUALLY INCREASING WITH TIME AS THE CORE
COLD AIR WITHIN THE LOW SLOWLY MODERATES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT MVFR IN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM... GENERALLY VFR BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL SMALL HAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VERY
STABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS AND THE WIND FORECAST
MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY CALM
SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY WET AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE MANY ARE RUNNING HIGH...ALL RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW FLOOD STAGE IN THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 231102
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
702 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE: DRY SLOT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE WITH CLEARING SKIES. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND POPS
TO REFLECT THE DRY SLOT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MINOR TWEAKS
TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DUISCUSSION:
COLD UPPER LOW HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. WILL EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO BE MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY LATER THIS MORNING
AS A LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WIND DEVELOPS POSSIBLY ENOUGH
TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES FROM A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO 50 NEAR THE COAST
SEEMS REASONABLE. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
GENERALLY CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE. THE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE DUE TO
THE UPPER BLOCKING PATTERN AND THUS THE PERSISTENT QUASI-
STATIONARY LOW OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BUT LOWER POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HOPING THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS HAVE ENOUGH OF AN EFFECT
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO KEEP LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING SUFFICIENT TO
LIMIT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS EVEN THOUGH SOME INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STALLED UPPER LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION EITHER FULLY OR
IN PART FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT... EXPECT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY WITH THE TYPICAL APRIL
GRAUPEL EXPECTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN NORMAL... THOUGH GRADUALLY INCREASING WITH TIME AS THE CORE
COLD AIR WITHIN THE LOW SLOWLY MODERATES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT MVFR IN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM... GENERALLY VFR BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL SMALL HAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VERY
STABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS AND THE WIND FORECAST
MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY CALM
SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY WET AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE MANY ARE RUNNING HIGH...ALL RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW FLOOD STAGE IN THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 231102
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
702 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE: DRY SLOT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE WITH CLEARING SKIES. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND POPS
TO REFLECT THE DRY SLOT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MINOR TWEAKS
TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DUISCUSSION:
COLD UPPER LOW HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. WILL EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO BE MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY LATER THIS MORNING
AS A LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WIND DEVELOPS POSSIBLY ENOUGH
TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES FROM A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO 50 NEAR THE COAST
SEEMS REASONABLE. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
GENERALLY CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE. THE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE DUE TO
THE UPPER BLOCKING PATTERN AND THUS THE PERSISTENT QUASI-
STATIONARY LOW OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BUT LOWER POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HOPING THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS HAVE ENOUGH OF AN EFFECT
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO KEEP LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING SUFFICIENT TO
LIMIT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS EVEN THOUGH SOME INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STALLED UPPER LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION EITHER FULLY OR
IN PART FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT... EXPECT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY WITH THE TYPICAL APRIL
GRAUPEL EXPECTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN NORMAL... THOUGH GRADUALLY INCREASING WITH TIME AS THE CORE
COLD AIR WITHIN THE LOW SLOWLY MODERATES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT MVFR IN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM... GENERALLY VFR BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL SMALL HAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VERY
STABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS AND THE WIND FORECAST
MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY CALM
SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY WET AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE MANY ARE RUNNING HIGH...ALL RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW FLOOD STAGE IN THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 231102
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
702 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE: DRY SLOT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE WITH CLEARING SKIES. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND POPS
TO REFLECT THE DRY SLOT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MINOR TWEAKS
TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DUISCUSSION:
COLD UPPER LOW HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. WILL EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO BE MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY LATER THIS MORNING
AS A LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WIND DEVELOPS POSSIBLY ENOUGH
TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES FROM A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO 50 NEAR THE COAST
SEEMS REASONABLE. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
GENERALLY CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE. THE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE DUE TO
THE UPPER BLOCKING PATTERN AND THUS THE PERSISTENT QUASI-
STATIONARY LOW OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BUT LOWER POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HOPING THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS HAVE ENOUGH OF AN EFFECT
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO KEEP LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING SUFFICIENT TO
LIMIT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS EVEN THOUGH SOME INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STALLED UPPER LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION EITHER FULLY OR
IN PART FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT... EXPECT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY WITH THE TYPICAL APRIL
GRAUPEL EXPECTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN NORMAL... THOUGH GRADUALLY INCREASING WITH TIME AS THE CORE
COLD AIR WITHIN THE LOW SLOWLY MODERATES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT MVFR IN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM... GENERALLY VFR BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL SMALL HAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VERY
STABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS AND THE WIND FORECAST
MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY CALM
SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY WET AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE MANY ARE RUNNING HIGH...ALL RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW FLOOD STAGE IN THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KBOX 230828
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
428 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CUTOFF UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD POOL ALOFT IN PLACE. DAYTIME HEATING MAY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS AND GENERATE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. MIXING MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 800 MB...WHERE TEMPERATURES
OF -8C TO -10C WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S. WINDS IN THIS MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST AT 20-25 KT. SO
GUSTS WITHIN THIS RANGE ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
SKY COVER OVERNIGHT AND SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN
SOME WIND. WHILE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS QUESTIONABLE...ADVECTION
COOLING IS STILL IN PLAY. MIN TEMPS UNDER THE COLD POOL CLOUDS
LAST NIGHT WERE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FARTHER UPSTREAM. WE STILL
EXPECT MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. IF SKIES DID
CLEAR AND WE WERE TO RADIATE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD FALL TO
THE MID 20S OVER A WIDE PORTION OF THE INTERIOR.

THIS SETS UP A LITTLE PREDICAMENT. THE STRONGER WINDS AND AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLOUD COVER SHOULD NEGATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION. BASED ON THE MEDIAN DATE OF THE
LAST FREEZE...AM ONLY CONCERNED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CT...RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA AT THIS TIME. THINKING THERE WILL BE PATCHY
FROST...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY. A FEW
OF THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS COULD REACH FREEZING. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY KIND OF AN
ADVISORY OR WARNING. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT
THIS POTENTIAL.

AS WITH TODAY...WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS
DEVELOP DURING FRIDAY...ALONG WITH MORE SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS. AT
THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE MASS PIKE...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A QUICK SPRINKLE EVEN SOUTH
OF THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL THE 00Z MODELS HANDLE THE DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COMPARABLY ON FRI AND GRADUALLY SHIFT THE ENERGY OFFSHORE
SOUTHEAST CANADA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS
PREFERRED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND THE FOCUS IS ON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH WILL
MIGRATE BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BY MONDAY...AND A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE
THE MIGRATION OF THIS DESERT LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ITS
INTENSIFICATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS IT WRAPS UP INTO THE CLOSED
LOW. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION WILL BE THE
INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND WHERE
THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF SYSTEM.
CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND PHASES OVER THE PLAINS WHERE THE
EC IS LESS AMPLIFIED/MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ALLOWS THE ENERGY TO BE
THE KICKER TO PUSH THE CUTOFF LOW OUT TO SEA. TELECONNECTION INDICES
OF -NAO/+PNA DO NOT TRULY SUPPORT THE EC SOLUTION...SO TRENDED
CLOSER TO WPC AND THE GFS FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...


* SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT/SUN. THIS MAY LIMIT
SHOWER CHANCES AS BEST COLD POOL AND FORCING WILL BE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. A STRENGTHENED SURFACE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME PERIOD KEEPING MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT THIS SURFACE LOW WILL GET CAUGHT IN
THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND RETROGRADE THE LOW BACK TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THIS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. A FEW SITES MAY WARM INTO
THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD POOL WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA.
ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH DIURNAL CU DURING THE DAY.
STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT NOTHING TO CANCEL WEEKEND PLANS OVER. AREAS THAT HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE REGION...CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SPLIT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OUT WEST DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR NEW
ENGLAND...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES
OF PRECIP AS SEVERAL POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING IS
DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEHAVES.
CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A TRANSITION DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUING. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ON THURSDAY
PER THE GFS...WHERE THE 00Z EC SEEMS TO LOST THE LOW VS ITS 12Z
COUNTERPART. REGARDLESS BELIEVE BELOW AVG TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. BRIEF...SPOTTY DIURNAL
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN/WESTERN MASS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

SAT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER
TO MVFR QUICKLY IN A BRIEF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE CLOSER TO SHORE. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE MIXING
POTENTIAL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
GUSTS OF 25 KT POSSIBLE. JUST NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH WE WILL SEE THE
REQUIRED DURATION OF THE GUSTS TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. MUCH EASIER
DECISION ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...WHERE LINGERING SWELL
HAS SEAS OVER 5 FEET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEST WINDS DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT REMAIN
GUSTING NEAR 20 KNOTS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS/SWELL SUBSIDE A
LITTLE BUT MAINTAIN 5-6 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER
WATERS.

FRIDAY...EXPECT W-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS REMAINING
AT OR ABOVE 5 FT...MAINLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING EACH DAY. HOWEVER EXPECTING BOTH WIND AND SEAS TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WAS MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS COMBINED WITH
TIDAL INFLUENCES AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. THE RIVER
NEAR HARTFORD IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH ITS FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS
MORNING. NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM...THE TIDAL INFLUENCE WILL BE
STRONGER. MINOR FLOODING IS ONGOING DURING AT LEAST A PART OF EACH
TIDE CYCLE. THIS IS EXPECTED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-
     233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 230828
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
428 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CUTOFF UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD POOL ALOFT IN PLACE. DAYTIME HEATING MAY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS AND GENERATE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. MIXING MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 800 MB...WHERE TEMPERATURES
OF -8C TO -10C WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S. WINDS IN THIS MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST AT 20-25 KT. SO
GUSTS WITHIN THIS RANGE ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
SKY COVER OVERNIGHT AND SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN
SOME WIND. WHILE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS QUESTIONABLE...ADVECTION
COOLING IS STILL IN PLAY. MIN TEMPS UNDER THE COLD POOL CLOUDS
LAST NIGHT WERE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FARTHER UPSTREAM. WE STILL
EXPECT MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. IF SKIES DID
CLEAR AND WE WERE TO RADIATE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD FALL TO
THE MID 20S OVER A WIDE PORTION OF THE INTERIOR.

THIS SETS UP A LITTLE PREDICAMENT. THE STRONGER WINDS AND AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLOUD COVER SHOULD NEGATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION. BASED ON THE MEDIAN DATE OF THE
LAST FREEZE...AM ONLY CONCERNED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CT...RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA AT THIS TIME. THINKING THERE WILL BE PATCHY
FROST...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY. A FEW
OF THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS COULD REACH FREEZING. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY KIND OF AN
ADVISORY OR WARNING. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT
THIS POTENTIAL.

AS WITH TODAY...WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS
DEVELOP DURING FRIDAY...ALONG WITH MORE SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS. AT
THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE MASS PIKE...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A QUICK SPRINKLE EVEN SOUTH
OF THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL THE 00Z MODELS HANDLE THE DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COMPARABLY ON FRI AND GRADUALLY SHIFT THE ENERGY OFFSHORE
SOUTHEAST CANADA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS
PREFERRED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND THE FOCUS IS ON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH WILL
MIGRATE BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BY MONDAY...AND A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE
THE MIGRATION OF THIS DESERT LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ITS
INTENSIFICATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS IT WRAPS UP INTO THE CLOSED
LOW. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION WILL BE THE
INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND WHERE
THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF SYSTEM.
CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND PHASES OVER THE PLAINS WHERE THE
EC IS LESS AMPLIFIED/MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ALLOWS THE ENERGY TO BE
THE KICKER TO PUSH THE CUTOFF LOW OUT TO SEA. TELECONNECTION INDICES
OF -NAO/+PNA DO NOT TRULY SUPPORT THE EC SOLUTION...SO TRENDED
CLOSER TO WPC AND THE GFS FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...


* SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT/SUN. THIS MAY LIMIT
SHOWER CHANCES AS BEST COLD POOL AND FORCING WILL BE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. A STRENGTHENED SURFACE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME PERIOD KEEPING MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT THIS SURFACE LOW WILL GET CAUGHT IN
THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND RETROGRADE THE LOW BACK TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THIS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. A FEW SITES MAY WARM INTO
THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD POOL WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA.
ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH DIURNAL CU DURING THE DAY.
STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT NOTHING TO CANCEL WEEKEND PLANS OVER. AREAS THAT HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE REGION...CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SPLIT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OUT WEST DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR NEW
ENGLAND...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES
OF PRECIP AS SEVERAL POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING IS
DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEHAVES.
CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A TRANSITION DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUING. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ON THURSDAY
PER THE GFS...WHERE THE 00Z EC SEEMS TO LOST THE LOW VS ITS 12Z
COUNTERPART. REGARDLESS BELIEVE BELOW AVG TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. BRIEF...SPOTTY DIURNAL
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN/WESTERN MASS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

SAT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER
TO MVFR QUICKLY IN A BRIEF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE CLOSER TO SHORE. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE MIXING
POTENTIAL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
GUSTS OF 25 KT POSSIBLE. JUST NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH WE WILL SEE THE
REQUIRED DURATION OF THE GUSTS TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. MUCH EASIER
DECISION ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...WHERE LINGERING SWELL
HAS SEAS OVER 5 FEET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEST WINDS DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT REMAIN
GUSTING NEAR 20 KNOTS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS/SWELL SUBSIDE A
LITTLE BUT MAINTAIN 5-6 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER
WATERS.

FRIDAY...EXPECT W-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS REMAINING
AT OR ABOVE 5 FT...MAINLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING EACH DAY. HOWEVER EXPECTING BOTH WIND AND SEAS TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WAS MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS COMBINED WITH
TIDAL INFLUENCES AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. THE RIVER
NEAR HARTFORD IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH ITS FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS
MORNING. NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM...THE TIDAL INFLUENCE WILL BE
STRONGER. MINOR FLOODING IS ONGOING DURING AT LEAST A PART OF EACH
TIDE CYCLE. THIS IS EXPECTED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-
     233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230828
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
428 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CUTOFF UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD POOL ALOFT IN PLACE. DAYTIME HEATING MAY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS AND GENERATE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. MIXING MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 800 MB...WHERE TEMPERATURES
OF -8C TO -10C WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S. WINDS IN THIS MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST AT 20-25 KT. SO
GUSTS WITHIN THIS RANGE ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
SKY COVER OVERNIGHT AND SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN
SOME WIND. WHILE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS QUESTIONABLE...ADVECTION
COOLING IS STILL IN PLAY. MIN TEMPS UNDER THE COLD POOL CLOUDS
LAST NIGHT WERE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FARTHER UPSTREAM. WE STILL
EXPECT MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. IF SKIES DID
CLEAR AND WE WERE TO RADIATE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD FALL TO
THE MID 20S OVER A WIDE PORTION OF THE INTERIOR.

THIS SETS UP A LITTLE PREDICAMENT. THE STRONGER WINDS AND AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLOUD COVER SHOULD NEGATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION. BASED ON THE MEDIAN DATE OF THE
LAST FREEZE...AM ONLY CONCERNED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CT...RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA AT THIS TIME. THINKING THERE WILL BE PATCHY
FROST...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY. A FEW
OF THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS COULD REACH FREEZING. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY KIND OF AN
ADVISORY OR WARNING. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT
THIS POTENTIAL.

AS WITH TODAY...WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS
DEVELOP DURING FRIDAY...ALONG WITH MORE SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS. AT
THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE MASS PIKE...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A QUICK SPRINKLE EVEN SOUTH
OF THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL THE 00Z MODELS HANDLE THE DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COMPARABLY ON FRI AND GRADUALLY SHIFT THE ENERGY OFFSHORE
SOUTHEAST CANADA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS
PREFERRED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND THE FOCUS IS ON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH WILL
MIGRATE BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BY MONDAY...AND A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE
THE MIGRATION OF THIS DESERT LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ITS
INTENSIFICATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS IT WRAPS UP INTO THE CLOSED
LOW. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION WILL BE THE
INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND WHERE
THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF SYSTEM.
CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND PHASES OVER THE PLAINS WHERE THE
EC IS LESS AMPLIFIED/MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ALLOWS THE ENERGY TO BE
THE KICKER TO PUSH THE CUTOFF LOW OUT TO SEA. TELECONNECTION INDICES
OF -NAO/+PNA DO NOT TRULY SUPPORT THE EC SOLUTION...SO TRENDED
CLOSER TO WPC AND THE GFS FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...


* SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT/SUN. THIS MAY LIMIT
SHOWER CHANCES AS BEST COLD POOL AND FORCING WILL BE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. A STRENGTHENED SURFACE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME PERIOD KEEPING MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT THIS SURFACE LOW WILL GET CAUGHT IN
THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND RETROGRADE THE LOW BACK TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THIS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. A FEW SITES MAY WARM INTO
THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD POOL WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA.
ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH DIURNAL CU DURING THE DAY.
STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT NOTHING TO CANCEL WEEKEND PLANS OVER. AREAS THAT HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE REGION...CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SPLIT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OUT WEST DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR NEW
ENGLAND...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES
OF PRECIP AS SEVERAL POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING IS
DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEHAVES.
CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A TRANSITION DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUING. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ON THURSDAY
PER THE GFS...WHERE THE 00Z EC SEEMS TO LOST THE LOW VS ITS 12Z
COUNTERPART. REGARDLESS BELIEVE BELOW AVG TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. BRIEF...SPOTTY DIURNAL
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN/WESTERN MASS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

SAT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER
TO MVFR QUICKLY IN A BRIEF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE CLOSER TO SHORE. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE MIXING
POTENTIAL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
GUSTS OF 25 KT POSSIBLE. JUST NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH WE WILL SEE THE
REQUIRED DURATION OF THE GUSTS TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. MUCH EASIER
DECISION ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...WHERE LINGERING SWELL
HAS SEAS OVER 5 FEET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEST WINDS DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT REMAIN
GUSTING NEAR 20 KNOTS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS/SWELL SUBSIDE A
LITTLE BUT MAINTAIN 5-6 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER
WATERS.

FRIDAY...EXPECT W-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS REMAINING
AT OR ABOVE 5 FT...MAINLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING EACH DAY. HOWEVER EXPECTING BOTH WIND AND SEAS TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WAS MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS COMBINED WITH
TIDAL INFLUENCES AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. THE RIVER
NEAR HARTFORD IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH ITS FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS
MORNING. NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM...THE TIDAL INFLUENCE WILL BE
STRONGER. MINOR FLOODING IS ONGOING DURING AT LEAST A PART OF EACH
TIDE CYCLE. THIS IS EXPECTED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-
     233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KGYX 230649
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
249 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
COLD UPPER LOW HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. WILL EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO BE MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY LATER THIS MORNING
AS A LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WIND DEVELOPS POSSIBLY ENOUGH
TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES FROM A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO 50 NEAR THE COAST
SEEMS REASONABLE. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
GENERALLY CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE. THE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE DUE TO
THE UPPER BLOCKING PATTERN AND THUS THE PERSISTENT QUASI-
STATIONARY LOW OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BUT LOWER POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HOPING THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS HAVE ENOUGH OF AN EFFECT
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO KEEP LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING SUFFICIENT TO
LIMIT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS EVEN THOUGH SOME INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STALLED UPPER LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION EITHER FULLY OR
IN PART FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT... EXPECT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY WITH THE TYPICAL APRIL
GRAUPEL EXPECTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN NORMAL... THOUGH GRADUALLY INCREASING WITH TIME AS THE CORE
COLD AIR WITHIN THE LOW SLOWLY MODERATES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT MVFR IN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM... GENERALLY VFR BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL SMALL HAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VERY
STABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS AND THE WIND FORECAST
MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY CALM
SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY WET AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE MANY ARE RUNNING HIGH...ALL RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW FLOOD STAGE IN THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 230649
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
249 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
COLD UPPER LOW HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. WILL EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO BE MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY LATER THIS MORNING
AS A LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WIND DEVELOPS POSSIBLY ENOUGH
TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES FROM A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO 50 NEAR THE COAST
SEEMS REASONABLE. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
GENERALLY CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE. THE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE DUE TO
THE UPPER BLOCKING PATTERN AND THUS THE PERSISTENT QUASI-
STATIONARY LOW OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BUT LOWER POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HOPING THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS HAVE ENOUGH OF AN EFFECT
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO KEEP LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING SUFFICIENT TO
LIMIT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS EVEN THOUGH SOME INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STALLED UPPER LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION EITHER FULLY OR
IN PART FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT... EXPECT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY WITH THE TYPICAL APRIL
GRAUPEL EXPECTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN NORMAL... THOUGH GRADUALLY INCREASING WITH TIME AS THE CORE
COLD AIR WITHIN THE LOW SLOWLY MODERATES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT MVFR IN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM... GENERALLY VFR BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL SMALL HAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VERY
STABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS AND THE WIND FORECAST
MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY CALM
SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY WET AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE MANY ARE RUNNING HIGH...ALL RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW FLOOD STAGE IN THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 230649
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
249 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
COLD UPPER LOW HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. WILL EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO BE MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY LATER THIS MORNING
AS A LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WIND DEVELOPS POSSIBLY ENOUGH
TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES FROM A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO 50 NEAR THE COAST
SEEMS REASONABLE. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
GENERALLY CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE. THE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE DUE TO
THE UPPER BLOCKING PATTERN AND THUS THE PERSISTENT QUASI-
STATIONARY LOW OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BUT LOWER POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HOPING THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS HAVE ENOUGH OF AN EFFECT
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO KEEP LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING SUFFICIENT TO
LIMIT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS EVEN THOUGH SOME INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STALLED UPPER LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION EITHER FULLY OR
IN PART FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT... EXPECT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY WITH THE TYPICAL APRIL
GRAUPEL EXPECTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN NORMAL... THOUGH GRADUALLY INCREASING WITH TIME AS THE CORE
COLD AIR WITHIN THE LOW SLOWLY MODERATES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT MVFR IN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM... GENERALLY VFR BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL SMALL HAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VERY
STABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS AND THE WIND FORECAST
MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY CALM
SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY WET AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE MANY ARE RUNNING HIGH...ALL RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW FLOOD STAGE IN THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 230649
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
249 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
COLD UPPER LOW HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. WILL EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO BE MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY LATER THIS MORNING
AS A LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WIND DEVELOPS POSSIBLY ENOUGH
TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES FROM A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO 50 NEAR THE COAST
SEEMS REASONABLE. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
GENERALLY CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE. THE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE DUE TO
THE UPPER BLOCKING PATTERN AND THUS THE PERSISTENT QUASI-
STATIONARY LOW OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BUT LOWER POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HOPING THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS HAVE ENOUGH OF AN EFFECT
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO KEEP LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING SUFFICIENT TO
LIMIT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS EVEN THOUGH SOME INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STALLED UPPER LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION EITHER FULLY OR
IN PART FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT... EXPECT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY WITH THE TYPICAL APRIL
GRAUPEL EXPECTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN NORMAL... THOUGH GRADUALLY INCREASING WITH TIME AS THE CORE
COLD AIR WITHIN THE LOW SLOWLY MODERATES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT MVFR IN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM... GENERALLY VFR BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL SMALL HAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VERY
STABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS AND THE WIND FORECAST
MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY CALM
SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY WET AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE MANY ARE RUNNING HIGH...ALL RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW FLOOD STAGE IN THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KBOX 230243
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1043 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE HUDSON AND DELAWARE VALLEYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING BRINGING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER. UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES
INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM UPDATE...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS EVENING. FINALLY SEEING THE COLD FRONT WITHIN THE RADAR
DATA. THIS FRONT WAS IN CENTRAL MA AND CT AT THE TIME OF THIS
WRITING. ONCE THIS FRONT MOVES PAST A GIVEN LOCATION THIS
EVENING...WE SHOULD SEE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DROP OFF RATHER
QUICKLY. MOST OF THE INSTABILITY AND BEST DYNAMICS ARE OFFSHORE
NOW...AS EVIDENCED BY THE LIGHTNING DATA.

MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST WERE TO TRY TO TIME THE FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND THE ATTENDANT RAINFALL CHANCES.

MID LEVEL COLD POOL APPROACHES NW AND N CENTRAL MA AFTER 06Z...
MAY SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH THE UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT.
WILL ALSO KEEP AN EYE ON TEMPERATURES THERE. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
TEMPS DROPPING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S...NOT SURE IF THIS WILL BE
REALIZED BY DAYBREAK WITH CLOUDS HANGING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CUTOFF UPPER LOW SPINS OVER NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
WILL HOLD THE COLD POOL ALOFT OVER THE REGION. DAYTIME HEATING MAY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS AND GENERATE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. MIXING MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 800 MB...WHERE TEMPERATURES
OF -8C TO -10C WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S. WINDS IN THIS MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST AT 20-25
KNOTS...GUSTS WITHIN THIS RANGE ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

THE COLD AIRMASS STAYS IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME SKY COVER
OVERNIGHT AND SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN SOME WIND.
WHILE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS QUESTIONABLE...ADVECTION COOLING IS
STILL IN PLAY. MIN TEMPS UNDER THE COLD POOL CLOUDS LAST NIGHT
WERE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. EXPECT WE WILL BE CLOSE TO THAT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. IF SKIES DID
CLEAR AND WE WERE TO RADIATE...SFC TEMPS WOULD FALL TO THE MID
20S OVER A WIDE PORTION OF THE INTERIOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL
  OF THIS PERIOD
* SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR AND N OF THE MASS PIKE FRIDAY
  INTO EARLY SUNDAY
* BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER LOW
  PRESSURE RETROGRADES OUT OF THE MARITIMES

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

NEGATIVE NAO AND AO TELECONNECTIONS CONTINUE WITH NO END IN
SIGHT...SO HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN LOOKS TO HOLD ON AS
SEEN ON THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

NOTING THE H5 CUTOFF LOW THAT SPINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC SHIFTS E INTO THE MARITIMES SOMETIME THIS
WEEKEND...ONLY TO RETROGRADE BACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP COOL CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE MASS PIKE NORTHWARD AS THE LOW TRIES
TO EXIT. HOWEVER...WITH RENEWAL OF UPPER LOW ENERGY SHIFTING BACK
TOWARD THE REGION AS WELL AS A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NE AND
EVENTUALLY E...WILL BRING BETTER SHOT FOR SHOWERS LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY AS MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS IN OFF THE
OCEAN.

AS THE BIG UPPER LOW SPINS ACROSS THE NE AND MID ATLC COAST...
SEVERAL SYSTEMS THAT TRY TO WORK E OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES WILL BE SHUNTED TOWARD THE SE U.S. THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL TRY TO SHIFT E AGAIN BUT NOT
UNTIL LATER TUESDAY...AT LEAST AT THIS POINT.

LEANED TO A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOWS GOOD
CONSISTENCY WITH OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST INTO THIS WEEKEND. STILL
SOME TIMING ISSUES INTO THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK SO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY.

DETAILS...

* FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

H5 CUTOFF LOW/COLD POOL CONTINUES TO KEEP TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL ESPECIALLY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. READINGS WILL
ONLY TOP OFF MAINLY IN THE 50S...RUNNING A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. AS IS THE CASE WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT...WILL LIKELY
SEE DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS THAT WILL DEVELOP. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE NEAR AND N OF THE MASS PIKE...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A
QUICK SPRINKLE EVEN S OF THERE.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...SKIES DO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AND...WITH
LIGHT/VRBL WINDS...MAY SEE TEMPS DROP ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MA INTO N CENTRAL/NE CT. LOWS FORECAST TO FALL CLOSE TO OR A
BIT BELOW FREEZING AND...THIS LATE INTO THE SEASON...MAY NEED
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.

MODEL SOLUTIONS TRYING TO SIGNAL THE SLOW EXIT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM
SOMETIME SUNDAY...BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. AT THIS POINT...THE LOW
DOES MOVE A BIT FURTHER NE OF THE REGION SO COULD BE A BIT DRIER
ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER S ONE IS FROM THE MA/NH/VT BORDER. ALSO LOOKS
LIKE FEWER DIURNAL CLOUDS THAT DAY...MAINLY ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA SO
A FEW SPOTS MIGHT TOUCH 60.

* MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE SHOWING A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ON THEIR SOLUTIONS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME WITH THE RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW BACK OUT OF
THE MARITIMES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AGAIN. HOWEVER...THIS TIME
WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND EVEN E OVER TIME. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPS COOL BUT COULD BRING A BETTER SHOT FOR SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. THIS WILL KEEP A GOOD AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS AS WELL.

MODELS TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER LOW AGAIN AROUND THE WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME...BUT RATHER WIDE SOLUTIONS FURTHER S AND W OF THE REGION
ALONG WITH ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH REPLACING THE CUTOFF ACROSS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO SE U.S. BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
PREDOMINANT...THOUGH WILL SEE LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO W-NW AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE E.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. BRIEF...SPOTTY
DIURNAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN NORTHERN/WESTERN MASS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO MVFR QUICKLY IN BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT COULD LOWER
BRIEFLY IN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BEST SHOT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND E MA INTO RI/NE CT DURING MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SOUTHEAST SWELL CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR WATERS...MAINTAINING 5
TO 7 FOOT SEAS...ESPECIALLY ON OUR EXPOSED SOUTHERN WATERS. GUSTY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT SEAS SHOULD
LINGER ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. WEST WINDS THEN PICK UP AGAIN ON
THURSDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. RATHER THAN GO OFF-AGAIN/ON-
AGAIN WITH THE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES...WE WILL MAINTAIN THEM FOR
MOST WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE BOSTON HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY FOR WHICH THE HEADLINES ARE MORE DIRECTLY TIED TO
THE DIURNAL WINDS.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT. IF
ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED...A FEW OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL. LOW RISK OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEST WINDS DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT
REMAIN GUSTING NEAR 20 KNOTS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS/SWELL
SUBSIDE A LITTLE BUT MAINTAIN 5-6 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EXPECT W-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT WITH
SEAS REMAINING AOA 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS. EXPECT
WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. WINDS VEER TO N LATE MON/MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WAS MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS COMBINED WITH
TIDAL INFLUENCES AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. THE RIVER
NEAR HARTFORD IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH ITS FLOOD STAGE TOWARD
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM...THE TIDAL INFLUENCE WILL
BE STRONGER. MINOR FLOODING IS ONGOING DURING AT LEAST A PART OF
EACH TIDE CYCLE. THIS IS EXPECTED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/WTB/EVT
MARINE...BELK/WTB/EVT
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230243
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1043 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE HUDSON AND DELAWARE VALLEYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING BRINGING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER. UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES
INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM UPDATE...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS EVENING. FINALLY SEEING THE COLD FRONT WITHIN THE RADAR
DATA. THIS FRONT WAS IN CENTRAL MA AND CT AT THE TIME OF THIS
WRITING. ONCE THIS FRONT MOVES PAST A GIVEN LOCATION THIS
EVENING...WE SHOULD SEE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DROP OFF RATHER
QUICKLY. MOST OF THE INSTABILITY AND BEST DYNAMICS ARE OFFSHORE
NOW...AS EVIDENCED BY THE LIGHTNING DATA.

MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST WERE TO TRY TO TIME THE FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND THE ATTENDANT RAINFALL CHANCES.

MID LEVEL COLD POOL APPROACHES NW AND N CENTRAL MA AFTER 06Z...
MAY SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH THE UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT.
WILL ALSO KEEP AN EYE ON TEMPERATURES THERE. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
TEMPS DROPPING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S...NOT SURE IF THIS WILL BE
REALIZED BY DAYBREAK WITH CLOUDS HANGING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CUTOFF UPPER LOW SPINS OVER NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
WILL HOLD THE COLD POOL ALOFT OVER THE REGION. DAYTIME HEATING MAY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS AND GENERATE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. MIXING MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 800 MB...WHERE TEMPERATURES
OF -8C TO -10C WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S. WINDS IN THIS MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST AT 20-25
KNOTS...GUSTS WITHIN THIS RANGE ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

THE COLD AIRMASS STAYS IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME SKY COVER
OVERNIGHT AND SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN SOME WIND.
WHILE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS QUESTIONABLE...ADVECTION COOLING IS
STILL IN PLAY. MIN TEMPS UNDER THE COLD POOL CLOUDS LAST NIGHT
WERE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. EXPECT WE WILL BE CLOSE TO THAT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. IF SKIES DID
CLEAR AND WE WERE TO RADIATE...SFC TEMPS WOULD FALL TO THE MID
20S OVER A WIDE PORTION OF THE INTERIOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL
  OF THIS PERIOD
* SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR AND N OF THE MASS PIKE FRIDAY
  INTO EARLY SUNDAY
* BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER LOW
  PRESSURE RETROGRADES OUT OF THE MARITIMES

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

NEGATIVE NAO AND AO TELECONNECTIONS CONTINUE WITH NO END IN
SIGHT...SO HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN LOOKS TO HOLD ON AS
SEEN ON THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

NOTING THE H5 CUTOFF LOW THAT SPINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC SHIFTS E INTO THE MARITIMES SOMETIME THIS
WEEKEND...ONLY TO RETROGRADE BACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP COOL CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE MASS PIKE NORTHWARD AS THE LOW TRIES
TO EXIT. HOWEVER...WITH RENEWAL OF UPPER LOW ENERGY SHIFTING BACK
TOWARD THE REGION AS WELL AS A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NE AND
EVENTUALLY E...WILL BRING BETTER SHOT FOR SHOWERS LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY AS MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS IN OFF THE
OCEAN.

AS THE BIG UPPER LOW SPINS ACROSS THE NE AND MID ATLC COAST...
SEVERAL SYSTEMS THAT TRY TO WORK E OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES WILL BE SHUNTED TOWARD THE SE U.S. THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL TRY TO SHIFT E AGAIN BUT NOT
UNTIL LATER TUESDAY...AT LEAST AT THIS POINT.

LEANED TO A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOWS GOOD
CONSISTENCY WITH OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST INTO THIS WEEKEND. STILL
SOME TIMING ISSUES INTO THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK SO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY.

DETAILS...

* FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

H5 CUTOFF LOW/COLD POOL CONTINUES TO KEEP TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL ESPECIALLY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. READINGS WILL
ONLY TOP OFF MAINLY IN THE 50S...RUNNING A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. AS IS THE CASE WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT...WILL LIKELY
SEE DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS THAT WILL DEVELOP. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE NEAR AND N OF THE MASS PIKE...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A
QUICK SPRINKLE EVEN S OF THERE.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...SKIES DO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AND...WITH
LIGHT/VRBL WINDS...MAY SEE TEMPS DROP ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MA INTO N CENTRAL/NE CT. LOWS FORECAST TO FALL CLOSE TO OR A
BIT BELOW FREEZING AND...THIS LATE INTO THE SEASON...MAY NEED
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.

MODEL SOLUTIONS TRYING TO SIGNAL THE SLOW EXIT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM
SOMETIME SUNDAY...BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. AT THIS POINT...THE LOW
DOES MOVE A BIT FURTHER NE OF THE REGION SO COULD BE A BIT DRIER
ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER S ONE IS FROM THE MA/NH/VT BORDER. ALSO LOOKS
LIKE FEWER DIURNAL CLOUDS THAT DAY...MAINLY ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA SO
A FEW SPOTS MIGHT TOUCH 60.

* MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE SHOWING A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ON THEIR SOLUTIONS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME WITH THE RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW BACK OUT OF
THE MARITIMES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AGAIN. HOWEVER...THIS TIME
WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND EVEN E OVER TIME. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPS COOL BUT COULD BRING A BETTER SHOT FOR SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. THIS WILL KEEP A GOOD AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS AS WELL.

MODELS TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER LOW AGAIN AROUND THE WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME...BUT RATHER WIDE SOLUTIONS FURTHER S AND W OF THE REGION
ALONG WITH ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH REPLACING THE CUTOFF ACROSS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO SE U.S. BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
PREDOMINANT...THOUGH WILL SEE LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO W-NW AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE E.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. BRIEF...SPOTTY
DIURNAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN NORTHERN/WESTERN MASS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO MVFR QUICKLY IN BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT COULD LOWER
BRIEFLY IN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BEST SHOT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND E MA INTO RI/NE CT DURING MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SOUTHEAST SWELL CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR WATERS...MAINTAINING 5
TO 7 FOOT SEAS...ESPECIALLY ON OUR EXPOSED SOUTHERN WATERS. GUSTY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT SEAS SHOULD
LINGER ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. WEST WINDS THEN PICK UP AGAIN ON
THURSDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. RATHER THAN GO OFF-AGAIN/ON-
AGAIN WITH THE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES...WE WILL MAINTAIN THEM FOR
MOST WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE BOSTON HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY FOR WHICH THE HEADLINES ARE MORE DIRECTLY TIED TO
THE DIURNAL WINDS.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT. IF
ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED...A FEW OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL. LOW RISK OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEST WINDS DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT
REMAIN GUSTING NEAR 20 KNOTS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS/SWELL
SUBSIDE A LITTLE BUT MAINTAIN 5-6 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EXPECT W-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT WITH
SEAS REMAINING AOA 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS. EXPECT
WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. WINDS VEER TO N LATE MON/MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WAS MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS COMBINED WITH
TIDAL INFLUENCES AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. THE RIVER
NEAR HARTFORD IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH ITS FLOOD STAGE TOWARD
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM...THE TIDAL INFLUENCE WILL
BE STRONGER. MINOR FLOODING IS ONGOING DURING AT LEAST A PART OF
EACH TIDE CYCLE. THIS IS EXPECTED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/WTB/EVT
MARINE...BELK/WTB/EVT
HYDROLOGY...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KGYX 230155 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
955 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...A FEW CHANGES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. PCPN
IS SLOWER THAN MODELED MOVING THRU THE FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE HAD
TO BUMP TEMPS/DEWPOINTS UP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED POP SLIGHTLY TO BETTER MATCH RADAR TRENDS.

RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER. SOME OF THE RADAR RETURNS ARE HAVING
TROUBLE TRANSLATING TO THE GROUND THIS AFTERNOON OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE, WITH MOST OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN
BEING BACK IN VERMONT AND UPSTATE NEW YORK. ATMOSPHERE WILL
GRADUALLY MOISTEN AND MOST AREAS WILL GET SHOWERS THIS EVENING,
DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND BECOMING MORE SCATTERED FROM WEST TO
EAST LATER IN THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. NOT A
TERRIBLY SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT WITH GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF
INCH, LOCALLY MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS.

LOOKING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THURSDAY, WITH THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEING INLAND CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW
WHICH WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON TO FAR
SOUTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE A COOL, BREEZY DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS BLOCKING PERSISTS IN THE
ATLANTIC. THIS LOW WILL GENERATE DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY SHOWERS.
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND DOWNSLOPING...EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS
DOWNWIND OF THE WESTERN MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
MOUNTAINS. IN SPITE OF H850 MOISTURE...THE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME PERIODS OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WELL-
MIXED ATMOSPHERE WILL GENERATE GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY THAT WILL
REACH 20 MPH. IN THE MOUNTAINS...EXPECT UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AS
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. THIS WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SHOWERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND INCREASING TOWARDS THE LOW-MID 50S
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL DROP INTO THE 30S AGAIN ON
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONGER TERM FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY CONTINUES TO
FEATURE THE STAGNANT CLOSED UPPER LOW WITH COOL CONDITIONS AND
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY. HAVE FOLLOWED THE SUPER BLEND
VERY CLOSELY. INCREASED POPS FOR PORTLAND AND THE COASTAL PLAIN
FOR MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY...BUT THE
TREND TOWARDS LATER TUESDAY WILL BE FOR THE UPPER LOW TO SLIDE
EASTWARD AND ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM...
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING WITH THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY, ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTS COULD STAY JUST ABOVE MVFR
LEVELS MAINLY IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR ON
WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR IS EXPECTED IN ANY OF THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
EXPECT SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT INNER
WATERS JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A
BIT ON THURSDAY, BUT THE SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SHORT TERM...
NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VERY STABLE CONDITIONS
CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS AND THE WIND FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE
TRIMMED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY WET AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE KENNEBEC AT AUGUSTA.
WHILE MANY ARE RUNNING HIGH...ALL RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW FLOOD STAGE IN THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KBOX 230052
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
852 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE HUDSON AND DELAWARE VALLEYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING BRINGING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER. UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES
INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

815 PM UPDATE...

AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT 00Z AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT. ANOTHER THIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS ALSO
PUSHING IN OUT OF THE CENTRAL HUDSON VALLEY TO THE BERKSHIRES...
SO COULD SEE ISOLD THUNDER MAINLY ACROSS THE CT VALLEY DOWN TO
THE MA/CT BORDER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. KEPT MENTION ONLY
IN THOSE AREAS. MAY HOLD TOGETHER AS IT REACHES KORH BY AROUND
01Z.

NOTED A RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH THE SHOWERS. SOME STRONG
WINDS GUSTS WERE REPORTED AS THEY MIXED DOWN WITH SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. HAVE RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES AND
UTILITY POLES. PLEASE SEE LATEST LOCAL STORM REPORT FOR DETAILS.
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED WITH SUNSET.

SHOULD SEE PRECIP TEND TO TAPER OFF BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. HOWEVER...
MID LEVEL COLD POOL APPROACHES NW AND N CENTRAL MA AFTER 06Z...
MAY SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH THE UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT.
WILL ALSO KEEP AN EYE ON TEMPS THERE. CURRENT FORECAST HAS TEMPS
DROPPING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S...NOT SURE IF THIS WILL BE REALIZED
BY DAYBREAK WITH CLOUDS HANGING IN. WILL MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CUTOFF UPPER LOW SPINS OVER NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
WILL HOLD THE COLD POOL ALOFT OVER THE REGION. DAYTIME HEATING MAY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS AND GENERATE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. MIXING MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 800 MB...WHERE TEMPERATURES
OF -8C TO -10C WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S. WINDS IN THIS MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST AT 20-25
KNOTS...GUSTS WITHIN THIS RANGE ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

THE COLD AIRMASS STAYS IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME SKY COVER
OVERNIGHT AND SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN SOME WIND.
WHILE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS QUESTIONABLE...ADVECTION COOLING IS
STILL IN PLAY. MIN TEMPS UNDER THE COLD POOL CLOUDS LAST NIGHT
WERE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. EXPECT WE WILL BE CLOSE TO THAT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. IF SKIES DID
CLEAR AND WE WERE TO RADIATE...SFC TEMPS WOULD FALL TO THE MID
20S OVER A WIDE PORTION OF THE INTERIOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL
  OF THIS PERIOD
* SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR AND N OF THE MASS PIKE FRIDAY
  INTO EARLY SUNDAY
* BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER LOW
  PRESSURE RETROGRADES OUT OF THE MARITIMES

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

NEGATIVE NAO AND AO TELECONNECTIONS CONTINUE WITH NO END IN
SIGHT...SO HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN LOOKS TO HOLD ON AS
SEEN ON THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

NOTING THE H5 CUTOFF LOW THAT SPINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC SHIFTS E INTO THE MARITIMES SOMETIME THIS
WEEKEND...ONLY TO RETROGRADE BACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP COOL CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE MASS PIKE NORTHWARD AS THE LOW TRIES
TO EXIT. HOWEVER...WITH RENEWAL OF UPPER LOW ENERGY SHIFTING BACK
TOWARD THE REGION AS WELL AS A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NE AND
EVENTUALLY E...WILL BRING BETTER SHOT FOR SHOWERS LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY AS MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS IN OFF THE
OCEAN.

AS THE BIG UPPER LOW SPINS ACROSS THE NE AND MID ATLC COAST...
SEVERAL SYSTEMS THAT TRY TO WORK E OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES WILL BE SHUNTED TOWARD THE SE U.S. THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL TRY TO SHIFT E AGAIN BUT NOT
UNTIL LATER TUESDAY...AT LEAST AT THIS POINT.

LEANED TO A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOWS GOOD
CONSISTENCY WITH OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST INTO THIS WEEKEND. STILL
SOME TIMING ISSUES INTO THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK SO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY.

DETAILS...

* FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

H5 CUTOFF LOW/COLD POOL CONTINUES TO KEEP TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL ESPECIALLY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. READINGS WILL
ONLY TOP OFF MAINLY IN THE 50S...RUNNING A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. AS IS THE CASE WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT...WILL LIKELY
SEE DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS THAT WILL DEVELOP. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE NEAR AND N OF THE MASS PIKE...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A
QUICK SPRINKLE EVEN S OF THERE.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...SKIES DO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AND...WITH
LIGHT/VRBL WINDS...MAY SEE TEMPS DROP ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MA INTO N CENTRAL/NE CT. LOWS FORECAST TO FALL CLOSE TO OR A
BIT BELOW FREEZING AND...THIS LATE INTO THE SEASON...MAY NEED
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.

MODEL SOLUTIONS TRYING TO SIGNAL THE SLOW EXIT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM
SOMETIME SUNDAY...BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. AT THIS POINT...THE LOW
DOES MOVE A BIT FURTHER NE OF THE REGION SO COULD BE A BIT DRIER
ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER S ONE IS FROM THE MA/NH/VT BORDER. ALSO LOOKS
LIKE FEWER DIURNAL CLOUDS THAT DAY...MAINLY ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA SO
A FEW SPOTS MIGHT TOUCH 60.

* MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE SHOWING A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ON THEIR SOLUTIONS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME WITH THE RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW BACK OUT OF
THE MARITIMES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AGAIN. HOWEVER...THIS TIME
WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND EVEN E OVER TIME. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPS COOL BUT COULD BRING A BETTER SHOT FOR SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. THIS WILL KEEP A GOOD AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS AS WELL.

MODELS TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER LOW AGAIN AROUND THE WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME...BUT RATHER WIDE SOLUTIONS FURTHER S AND W OF THE REGION
ALONG WITH ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH REPLACING THE CUTOFF ACROSS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO SE U.S. BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
PREDOMINANT...THOUGH WILL SEE LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO W-NW AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT
E.

ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND W MA AS THIN BAND OF
CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE AS IT
SHIFTS E...BY ABOUT 02Z OR SO.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. BRIEF...SPOTTY
DIURNAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN NORTHERN/WESTERN MASS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO MVFR QUICKLY IN BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT COULD LOWER
BRIEFLY IN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BEST SHOT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND E MA INTO RI/NE CT DURING MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SOUTHEAST SWELL CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR WATERS...MAINTAINING 5
TO 7 FOOT SEAS ESPECIALLY ON OUR EXPOSED SOUTHERN WATERS. WINDS
TODAY WERE GUSTING 25-30 KNOTS NEARSHORE BUT LESS FARTHER
OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH NEARSHORE THIS EVENING BUT SEAS
SHOULD LINGER ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. WEST WINDS THEN PICK UP AGAIN
ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. RATHER THAN GO OFF-
AGAIN/ON-AGAIN WITH THE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES...WE WILL MAINTAIN
THEM FOR MOST WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE BOSTON
HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY FOR WHICH THE HEADLINES ARE MORE
DIRECTLY TIED TO THE DIURNAL WINDS.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT. IF
ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED...A FEW OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL. LOW RISK OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEST WINDS DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT
REMAIN GUSTING NEAR 20 KNOTS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS/SWELL
SUBSIDE A LITTLE BUT MAINTAIN 5-6 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EXPECT W-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT WITH
SEAS REMAINING AOA 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS. EXPECT
WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. WINDS VEER TO N LATE MON/MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WAS MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS COMBINED WITH
TIDAL INFLUENCES AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. THE RIVER
NEAR HARTFORD IS NOT EXPECTED TO APPROACH ITS FLOOD STAGE UNTIL
THURSDAY EVENING. NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM...THE TIDAL INFLUENCE WILL
BE STRONGER. MINOR FLOODING IS ONGOING DURING AT LEAST APART OF
EACH TIDE CYCLE. THIS IS EXPECTED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
HYDROLOGY...WTB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 230052
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
852 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE HUDSON AND DELAWARE VALLEYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING BRINGING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER. UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES
INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

815 PM UPDATE...

AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT 00Z AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT. ANOTHER THIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS ALSO
PUSHING IN OUT OF THE CENTRAL HUDSON VALLEY TO THE BERKSHIRES...
SO COULD SEE ISOLD THUNDER MAINLY ACROSS THE CT VALLEY DOWN TO
THE MA/CT BORDER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. KEPT MENTION ONLY
IN THOSE AREAS. MAY HOLD TOGETHER AS IT REACHES KORH BY AROUND
01Z.

NOTED A RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH THE SHOWERS. SOME STRONG
WINDS GUSTS WERE REPORTED AS THEY MIXED DOWN WITH SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. HAVE RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES AND
UTILITY POLES. PLEASE SEE LATEST LOCAL STORM REPORT FOR DETAILS.
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED WITH SUNSET.

SHOULD SEE PRECIP TEND TO TAPER OFF BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. HOWEVER...
MID LEVEL COLD POOL APPROACHES NW AND N CENTRAL MA AFTER 06Z...
MAY SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH THE UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT.
WILL ALSO KEEP AN EYE ON TEMPS THERE. CURRENT FORECAST HAS TEMPS
DROPPING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S...NOT SURE IF THIS WILL BE REALIZED
BY DAYBREAK WITH CLOUDS HANGING IN. WILL MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CUTOFF UPPER LOW SPINS OVER NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
WILL HOLD THE COLD POOL ALOFT OVER THE REGION. DAYTIME HEATING MAY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS AND GENERATE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. MIXING MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 800 MB...WHERE TEMPERATURES
OF -8C TO -10C WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S. WINDS IN THIS MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST AT 20-25
KNOTS...GUSTS WITHIN THIS RANGE ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

THE COLD AIRMASS STAYS IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME SKY COVER
OVERNIGHT AND SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN SOME WIND.
WHILE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS QUESTIONABLE...ADVECTION COOLING IS
STILL IN PLAY. MIN TEMPS UNDER THE COLD POOL CLOUDS LAST NIGHT
WERE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. EXPECT WE WILL BE CLOSE TO THAT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. IF SKIES DID
CLEAR AND WE WERE TO RADIATE...SFC TEMPS WOULD FALL TO THE MID
20S OVER A WIDE PORTION OF THE INTERIOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL
  OF THIS PERIOD
* SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR AND N OF THE MASS PIKE FRIDAY
  INTO EARLY SUNDAY
* BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER LOW
  PRESSURE RETROGRADES OUT OF THE MARITIMES

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

NEGATIVE NAO AND AO TELECONNECTIONS CONTINUE WITH NO END IN
SIGHT...SO HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN LOOKS TO HOLD ON AS
SEEN ON THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

NOTING THE H5 CUTOFF LOW THAT SPINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC SHIFTS E INTO THE MARITIMES SOMETIME THIS
WEEKEND...ONLY TO RETROGRADE BACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP COOL CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE MASS PIKE NORTHWARD AS THE LOW TRIES
TO EXIT. HOWEVER...WITH RENEWAL OF UPPER LOW ENERGY SHIFTING BACK
TOWARD THE REGION AS WELL AS A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NE AND
EVENTUALLY E...WILL BRING BETTER SHOT FOR SHOWERS LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY AS MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS IN OFF THE
OCEAN.

AS THE BIG UPPER LOW SPINS ACROSS THE NE AND MID ATLC COAST...
SEVERAL SYSTEMS THAT TRY TO WORK E OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES WILL BE SHUNTED TOWARD THE SE U.S. THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL TRY TO SHIFT E AGAIN BUT NOT
UNTIL LATER TUESDAY...AT LEAST AT THIS POINT.

LEANED TO A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOWS GOOD
CONSISTENCY WITH OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST INTO THIS WEEKEND. STILL
SOME TIMING ISSUES INTO THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK SO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY.

DETAILS...

* FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

H5 CUTOFF LOW/COLD POOL CONTINUES TO KEEP TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL ESPECIALLY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. READINGS WILL
ONLY TOP OFF MAINLY IN THE 50S...RUNNING A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. AS IS THE CASE WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT...WILL LIKELY
SEE DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS THAT WILL DEVELOP. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE NEAR AND N OF THE MASS PIKE...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A
QUICK SPRINKLE EVEN S OF THERE.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...SKIES DO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AND...WITH
LIGHT/VRBL WINDS...MAY SEE TEMPS DROP ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MA INTO N CENTRAL/NE CT. LOWS FORECAST TO FALL CLOSE TO OR A
BIT BELOW FREEZING AND...THIS LATE INTO THE SEASON...MAY NEED
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.

MODEL SOLUTIONS TRYING TO SIGNAL THE SLOW EXIT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM
SOMETIME SUNDAY...BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. AT THIS POINT...THE LOW
DOES MOVE A BIT FURTHER NE OF THE REGION SO COULD BE A BIT DRIER
ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER S ONE IS FROM THE MA/NH/VT BORDER. ALSO LOOKS
LIKE FEWER DIURNAL CLOUDS THAT DAY...MAINLY ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA SO
A FEW SPOTS MIGHT TOUCH 60.

* MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE SHOWING A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ON THEIR SOLUTIONS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME WITH THE RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW BACK OUT OF
THE MARITIMES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AGAIN. HOWEVER...THIS TIME
WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND EVEN E OVER TIME. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPS COOL BUT COULD BRING A BETTER SHOT FOR SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. THIS WILL KEEP A GOOD AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS AS WELL.

MODELS TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER LOW AGAIN AROUND THE WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME...BUT RATHER WIDE SOLUTIONS FURTHER S AND W OF THE REGION
ALONG WITH ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH REPLACING THE CUTOFF ACROSS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO SE U.S. BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
PREDOMINANT...THOUGH WILL SEE LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO W-NW AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT
E.

ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND W MA AS THIN BAND OF
CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE AS IT
SHIFTS E...BY ABOUT 02Z OR SO.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. BRIEF...SPOTTY
DIURNAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN NORTHERN/WESTERN MASS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO MVFR QUICKLY IN BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT COULD LOWER
BRIEFLY IN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BEST SHOT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND E MA INTO RI/NE CT DURING MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SOUTHEAST SWELL CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR WATERS...MAINTAINING 5
TO 7 FOOT SEAS ESPECIALLY ON OUR EXPOSED SOUTHERN WATERS. WINDS
TODAY WERE GUSTING 25-30 KNOTS NEARSHORE BUT LESS FARTHER
OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH NEARSHORE THIS EVENING BUT SEAS
SHOULD LINGER ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. WEST WINDS THEN PICK UP AGAIN
ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. RATHER THAN GO OFF-
AGAIN/ON-AGAIN WITH THE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES...WE WILL MAINTAIN
THEM FOR MOST WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE BOSTON
HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY FOR WHICH THE HEADLINES ARE MORE
DIRECTLY TIED TO THE DIURNAL WINDS.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT. IF
ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED...A FEW OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL. LOW RISK OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEST WINDS DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT
REMAIN GUSTING NEAR 20 KNOTS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS/SWELL
SUBSIDE A LITTLE BUT MAINTAIN 5-6 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EXPECT W-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT WITH
SEAS REMAINING AOA 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS. EXPECT
WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. WINDS VEER TO N LATE MON/MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WAS MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS COMBINED WITH
TIDAL INFLUENCES AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. THE RIVER
NEAR HARTFORD IS NOT EXPECTED TO APPROACH ITS FLOOD STAGE UNTIL
THURSDAY EVENING. NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM...THE TIDAL INFLUENCE WILL
BE STRONGER. MINOR FLOODING IS ONGOING DURING AT LEAST APART OF
EACH TIDE CYCLE. THIS IS EXPECTED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
HYDROLOGY...WTB




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