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000
FXUS61 KBOX 241809
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
109 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET TRACK AND EFFECTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

100 PM UPDATE...

DRY SLOT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WARM
FRONT HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER WE ARE STILL
SOCKED IN WITH CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ. IN FACE THERE IS
ENOUGH LIFT THAT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE
PORTION OF THE REGION...WHERE THE STRONGEST 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS CO-LOCATED. AMOUNTS IN THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN AROUND
0.05 INCHES SO ANY ADDITIONAL NUISANCES FLOODING ISSUES SEEM LOW
AT THIS TIME. ANTICIPATE THESE SHOWERS TO BEGIN TO PULL OFFSHORE
AROUND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

MIXING ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES AS GUSTS ARE AROUND 15-25
MPH...STRONG ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL
ALSO SEE THE STRONGER GUSTS AS THE 925 MB LLJ IS STILL AROUND 40
KTS. HAVE NOTICED A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...IF
CLOUDS DO BREAK OUT THEN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY AS 925 MB
TEMPS REACH 13-16C. SO AT THE SURFACE A ROGUE 70F REPORT IS
POSSIBLE IS THE CLOUDS BREAK OUT. HOWEVER LOOKING AT THE CROSS
SECTION APPEARS THE LOW LEVELS ARE VERY MOIST SO CONTINUED WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
* PLOWABLE SNOW STORM LIKELY WEDNESDAY...EXACT TRACK AND LOCATION OF
  RAIN/SNOW LINE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
* COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER STORM LATE IN THE WEEKEND

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER
STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING.  UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THIS STORM...PARTICULARLY THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL AFFECT EVERYTHING FROM AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TO
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS...WHICH WILL IN TURN AFFECT THE TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION.  THE ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW TRACKING ANYWHERE FROM
OVER PENNSYLVANIA TO OUT TO SEA WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.  THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE
TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND /AT THE WESTERN END OF THE
ENVELOPE/ TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK /AT THE EASTERN END OF
THE ENVELOPE.  OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH MORE DISCREPANCIES SEEN WITH
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.  THE GFS IS FORECASTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS IS
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT THOUGH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY EXPECTED THOUGH IT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.  LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
MARITIMES PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A
SOUTHWESTERLY 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH DECENT MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...AS STATED ABOVE...THIS WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST AND IS ALSO THE MOST UNCERTAIN.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MOST LIKELY MOVING ANYWHERE FROM
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70
BENCHMARK.  A TRACK OF THIS SORT IS LIKELY TO BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW
TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
SIX INCHES OF SNOW FALLING ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS.
ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR AND
LIKELY TO AFFECT MANY.

THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND BRINGS
AT LEAST THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.
WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER TO THE EAST...IT TOO BRINGS AT LEAST THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND HAS A COLDER
THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SIX INCHES OF SNOW AT
LEAST OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND LIKELY FARTHER EAST.  THIS IS
DEFINITELY A STORM TO WATCH.

WHILE THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT
THIS POINT...APPEARS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR WEST
OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT QUIET
WEATHER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LESS CERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO AFFECT A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 00Z...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON...KEEPING MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA. SW GUSTS TO
25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55
KT. SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT BY 21Z.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS. ANTICIPATE CONTINUING MVFR ISO
IFR CIGS FOR SE TERMINALS DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS. SW WIND GUSTS 15-25 KT OVERNIGHT...SHOULD KEEP FOG
AWAY.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR CIGS
AND GUSTY S WINDS. LLWS LIKELY TODAY WITH 50 KT AT 2K FT. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TONIGHTS TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TODAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON TONIGHTS TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THU AM...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW/RAIN.  GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW...INCLUDING HEAVY SNOW...IS
WEST OF WORCESTER THROUGH WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT.

THU PM THROUGH FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST SCA WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS.  NORTHWESTERLY GALES LIKELY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 241809
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
109 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET TRACK AND EFFECTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

100 PM UPDATE...

DRY SLOT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WARM
FRONT HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER WE ARE STILL
SOCKED IN WITH CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ. IN FACE THERE IS
ENOUGH LIFT THAT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE
PORTION OF THE REGION...WHERE THE STRONGEST 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS CO-LOCATED. AMOUNTS IN THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN AROUND
0.05 INCHES SO ANY ADDITIONAL NUISANCES FLOODING ISSUES SEEM LOW
AT THIS TIME. ANTICIPATE THESE SHOWERS TO BEGIN TO PULL OFFSHORE
AROUND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

MIXING ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES AS GUSTS ARE AROUND 15-25
MPH...STRONG ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL
ALSO SEE THE STRONGER GUSTS AS THE 925 MB LLJ IS STILL AROUND 40
KTS. HAVE NOTICED A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...IF
CLOUDS DO BREAK OUT THEN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY AS 925 MB
TEMPS REACH 13-16C. SO AT THE SURFACE A ROGUE 70F REPORT IS
POSSIBLE IS THE CLOUDS BREAK OUT. HOWEVER LOOKING AT THE CROSS
SECTION APPEARS THE LOW LEVELS ARE VERY MOIST SO CONTINUED WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
* PLOWABLE SNOW STORM LIKELY WEDNESDAY...EXACT TRACK AND LOCATION OF
  RAIN/SNOW LINE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
* COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER STORM LATE IN THE WEEKEND

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER
STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING.  UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THIS STORM...PARTICULARLY THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL AFFECT EVERYTHING FROM AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TO
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS...WHICH WILL IN TURN AFFECT THE TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION.  THE ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW TRACKING ANYWHERE FROM
OVER PENNSYLVANIA TO OUT TO SEA WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.  THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE
TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND /AT THE WESTERN END OF THE
ENVELOPE/ TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK /AT THE EASTERN END OF
THE ENVELOPE.  OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH MORE DISCREPANCIES SEEN WITH
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.  THE GFS IS FORECASTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS IS
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT THOUGH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY EXPECTED THOUGH IT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.  LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
MARITIMES PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A
SOUTHWESTERLY 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH DECENT MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...AS STATED ABOVE...THIS WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST AND IS ALSO THE MOST UNCERTAIN.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MOST LIKELY MOVING ANYWHERE FROM
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70
BENCHMARK.  A TRACK OF THIS SORT IS LIKELY TO BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW
TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
SIX INCHES OF SNOW FALLING ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS.
ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR AND
LIKELY TO AFFECT MANY.

THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND BRINGS
AT LEAST THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.
WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER TO THE EAST...IT TOO BRINGS AT LEAST THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND HAS A COLDER
THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SIX INCHES OF SNOW AT
LEAST OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND LIKELY FARTHER EAST.  THIS IS
DEFINITELY A STORM TO WATCH.

WHILE THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT
THIS POINT...APPEARS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR WEST
OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT QUIET
WEATHER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LESS CERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO AFFECT A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 00Z...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON...KEEPING MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA. SW GUSTS TO
25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55
KT. SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT BY 21Z.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS. ANTICIPATE CONTINUING MVFR ISO
IFR CIGS FOR SE TERMINALS DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS. SW WIND GUSTS 15-25 KT OVERNIGHT...SHOULD KEEP FOG
AWAY.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR CIGS
AND GUSTY S WINDS. LLWS LIKELY TODAY WITH 50 KT AT 2K FT. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TONIGHTS TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TODAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON TONIGHTS TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THU AM...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW/RAIN.  GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW...INCLUDING HEAVY SNOW...IS
WEST OF WORCESTER THROUGH WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT.

THU PM THROUGH FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST SCA WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS.  NORTHWESTERLY GALES LIKELY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241535
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1035 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET TRACK AND EFFECTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.
WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
WARM AIR TO MOVE IN AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. ALTHOUGH
BULK OF THE RAIN FROM EARLY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED NORTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...STILL WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSFER MOVING INTO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR
THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO REGENERATE. ANTICIPATE LOW VSBYS AND
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THANKS TO A GOOD
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PER CROSS SECTIONS.

DRY SLOT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS MORNING
ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH MAIN BULK OF THE LLJ HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...WILL STILL SEE
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 15-25 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...HIGHER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON...
DRY SLOT WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH RAINFALL
EXITING THE REGION...BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE WINDY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH EXPECTED AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 40 MPH SE NEW ENG. 925 MB TEMPS 13-15C SO IT WILL
BE A RATHER MILD DAY FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. 70 DEGREES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF WE
COULD GET SOME SUNSHINE BUT THIS DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
* PLOWABLE SNOW STORM LIKELY WEDNESDAY...EXACT TRACK AND LOCATION OF
  RAIN/SNOW LINE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
* COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER STORM LATE IN THE WEEKEND

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER
STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING.  UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THIS STORM...PARTICULARLY THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL AFFECT EVERYTHING FROM AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TO
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS...WHICH WILL IN TURN AFFECT THE TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION.  THE ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW TRACKING ANYWHERE FROM
OVER PENNSYLVANIA TO OUT TO SEA WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.  THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE
TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND /AT THE WESTERN END OF THE
ENVELOPE/ TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK /AT THE EASTERN END OF
THE ENVELOPE.  OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH MORE DISCREPANCIES SEEN WITH
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.  THE GFS IS FORECASTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS IS
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT THOUGH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY EXPECTED THOUGH IT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.  LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
MARITIMES PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A
SOUTHWESTERLY 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH DECENT MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...AS STATED ABOVE...THIS WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST AND IS ALSO THE MOST UNCERTAIN.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MOST LIKELY MOVING ANYWHERE FROM
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70
BENCHMARK.  A TRACK OF THIS SORT IS LIKELY TO BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW
TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
SIX INCHES OF SNOW FALLING ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS.
ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR AND
LIKELY TO AFFECT MANY.

THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND BRINGS
AT LEAST THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.
WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER TO THE EAST...IT TOO BRINGS AT LEAST THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND HAS A COLDER
THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SIX INCHES OF SNOW AT
LEAST OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND LIKELY FARTHER EAST.  THIS IS
DEFINITELY A STORM TO WATCH.

WHILE THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT
THIS POINT...APPEARS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR WEST
OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT QUIET
WEATHER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LESS CERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO AFFECT A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. STEADY RAIN EXITS
13-16Z WITH NUMBEROUS SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...KEEPING
MVFR/IFR CIGS LINGERING. S WIND GUSTS TO 35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS
SE NEW ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS 15-19Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO
25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55
KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
BUT NOT IN TAF AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH GUSTY S WINDS. LLWS
LIKELY TODAY WITH 50 KT AT 2K FT.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW WINDS GUST TO 25KTS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THU AM...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW/RAIN.  GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW...INCLUDING HEAVY SNOW...IS
WEST OF WORCESTER THROUGH WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT.

THU PM THROUGH FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST SCA WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS.  NORTHWESTERLY GALES LIKELY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR RIZ002-
     004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 241535
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1035 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET TRACK AND EFFECTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.
WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
WARM AIR TO MOVE IN AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. ALTHOUGH
BULK OF THE RAIN FROM EARLY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED NORTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...STILL WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSFER MOVING INTO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR
THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO REGENERATE. ANTICIPATE LOW VSBYS AND
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THANKS TO A GOOD
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PER CROSS SECTIONS.

DRY SLOT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS MORNING
ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH MAIN BULK OF THE LLJ HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...WILL STILL SEE
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 15-25 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...HIGHER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON...
DRY SLOT WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH RAINFALL
EXITING THE REGION...BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE WINDY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH EXPECTED AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 40 MPH SE NEW ENG. 925 MB TEMPS 13-15C SO IT WILL
BE A RATHER MILD DAY FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. 70 DEGREES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF WE
COULD GET SOME SUNSHINE BUT THIS DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
* PLOWABLE SNOW STORM LIKELY WEDNESDAY...EXACT TRACK AND LOCATION OF
  RAIN/SNOW LINE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
* COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER STORM LATE IN THE WEEKEND

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER
STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING.  UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THIS STORM...PARTICULARLY THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL AFFECT EVERYTHING FROM AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TO
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS...WHICH WILL IN TURN AFFECT THE TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION.  THE ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW TRACKING ANYWHERE FROM
OVER PENNSYLVANIA TO OUT TO SEA WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.  THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE
TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND /AT THE WESTERN END OF THE
ENVELOPE/ TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK /AT THE EASTERN END OF
THE ENVELOPE.  OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH MORE DISCREPANCIES SEEN WITH
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.  THE GFS IS FORECASTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS IS
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT THOUGH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY EXPECTED THOUGH IT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.  LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
MARITIMES PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A
SOUTHWESTERLY 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH DECENT MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...AS STATED ABOVE...THIS WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST AND IS ALSO THE MOST UNCERTAIN.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MOST LIKELY MOVING ANYWHERE FROM
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70
BENCHMARK.  A TRACK OF THIS SORT IS LIKELY TO BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW
TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
SIX INCHES OF SNOW FALLING ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS.
ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR AND
LIKELY TO AFFECT MANY.

THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND BRINGS
AT LEAST THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.
WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER TO THE EAST...IT TOO BRINGS AT LEAST THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND HAS A COLDER
THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SIX INCHES OF SNOW AT
LEAST OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND LIKELY FARTHER EAST.  THIS IS
DEFINITELY A STORM TO WATCH.

WHILE THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT
THIS POINT...APPEARS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR WEST
OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT QUIET
WEATHER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LESS CERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO AFFECT A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. STEADY RAIN EXITS
13-16Z WITH NUMBEROUS SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...KEEPING
MVFR/IFR CIGS LINGERING. S WIND GUSTS TO 35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS
SE NEW ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS 15-19Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO
25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55
KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
BUT NOT IN TAF AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH GUSTY S WINDS. LLWS
LIKELY TODAY WITH 50 KT AT 2K FT.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW WINDS GUST TO 25KTS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THU AM...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW/RAIN.  GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW...INCLUDING HEAVY SNOW...IS
WEST OF WORCESTER THROUGH WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT.

THU PM THROUGH FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST SCA WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS.  NORTHWESTERLY GALES LIKELY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR RIZ002-
     004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 241535
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1035 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET TRACK AND EFFECTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.
WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
WARM AIR TO MOVE IN AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. ALTHOUGH
BULK OF THE RAIN FROM EARLY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED NORTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...STILL WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSFER MOVING INTO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR
THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO REGENERATE. ANTICIPATE LOW VSBYS AND
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THANKS TO A GOOD
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PER CROSS SECTIONS.

DRY SLOT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS MORNING
ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH MAIN BULK OF THE LLJ HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...WILL STILL SEE
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 15-25 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...HIGHER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON...
DRY SLOT WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH RAINFALL
EXITING THE REGION...BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE WINDY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH EXPECTED AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 40 MPH SE NEW ENG. 925 MB TEMPS 13-15C SO IT WILL
BE A RATHER MILD DAY FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. 70 DEGREES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF WE
COULD GET SOME SUNSHINE BUT THIS DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
* PLOWABLE SNOW STORM LIKELY WEDNESDAY...EXACT TRACK AND LOCATION OF
  RAIN/SNOW LINE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
* COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER STORM LATE IN THE WEEKEND

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER
STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING.  UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THIS STORM...PARTICULARLY THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL AFFECT EVERYTHING FROM AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TO
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS...WHICH WILL IN TURN AFFECT THE TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION.  THE ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW TRACKING ANYWHERE FROM
OVER PENNSYLVANIA TO OUT TO SEA WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.  THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE
TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND /AT THE WESTERN END OF THE
ENVELOPE/ TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK /AT THE EASTERN END OF
THE ENVELOPE.  OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH MORE DISCREPANCIES SEEN WITH
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.  THE GFS IS FORECASTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS IS
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT THOUGH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY EXPECTED THOUGH IT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.  LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
MARITIMES PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A
SOUTHWESTERLY 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH DECENT MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...AS STATED ABOVE...THIS WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST AND IS ALSO THE MOST UNCERTAIN.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MOST LIKELY MOVING ANYWHERE FROM
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70
BENCHMARK.  A TRACK OF THIS SORT IS LIKELY TO BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW
TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
SIX INCHES OF SNOW FALLING ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS.
ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR AND
LIKELY TO AFFECT MANY.

THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND BRINGS
AT LEAST THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.
WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER TO THE EAST...IT TOO BRINGS AT LEAST THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND HAS A COLDER
THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SIX INCHES OF SNOW AT
LEAST OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND LIKELY FARTHER EAST.  THIS IS
DEFINITELY A STORM TO WATCH.

WHILE THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT
THIS POINT...APPEARS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR WEST
OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT QUIET
WEATHER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LESS CERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO AFFECT A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. STEADY RAIN EXITS
13-16Z WITH NUMBEROUS SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...KEEPING
MVFR/IFR CIGS LINGERING. S WIND GUSTS TO 35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS
SE NEW ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS 15-19Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO
25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55
KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
BUT NOT IN TAF AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH GUSTY S WINDS. LLWS
LIKELY TODAY WITH 50 KT AT 2K FT.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW WINDS GUST TO 25KTS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THU AM...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW/RAIN.  GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW...INCLUDING HEAVY SNOW...IS
WEST OF WORCESTER THROUGH WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT.

THU PM THROUGH FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST SCA WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS.  NORTHWESTERLY GALES LIKELY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR RIZ002-
     004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 241535
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1035 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET TRACK AND EFFECTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.
WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
WARM AIR TO MOVE IN AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. ALTHOUGH
BULK OF THE RAIN FROM EARLY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED NORTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...STILL WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSFER MOVING INTO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR
THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO REGENERATE. ANTICIPATE LOW VSBYS AND
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THANKS TO A GOOD
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PER CROSS SECTIONS.

DRY SLOT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS MORNING
ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH MAIN BULK OF THE LLJ HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...WILL STILL SEE
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 15-25 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...HIGHER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON...
DRY SLOT WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH RAINFALL
EXITING THE REGION...BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE WINDY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH EXPECTED AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 40 MPH SE NEW ENG. 925 MB TEMPS 13-15C SO IT WILL
BE A RATHER MILD DAY FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. 70 DEGREES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF WE
COULD GET SOME SUNSHINE BUT THIS DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
* PLOWABLE SNOW STORM LIKELY WEDNESDAY...EXACT TRACK AND LOCATION OF
  RAIN/SNOW LINE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
* COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER STORM LATE IN THE WEEKEND

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER
STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING.  UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THIS STORM...PARTICULARLY THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL AFFECT EVERYTHING FROM AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TO
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS...WHICH WILL IN TURN AFFECT THE TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION.  THE ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW TRACKING ANYWHERE FROM
OVER PENNSYLVANIA TO OUT TO SEA WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.  THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE
TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND /AT THE WESTERN END OF THE
ENVELOPE/ TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK /AT THE EASTERN END OF
THE ENVELOPE.  OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH MORE DISCREPANCIES SEEN WITH
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.  THE GFS IS FORECASTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS IS
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT THOUGH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY EXPECTED THOUGH IT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.  LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
MARITIMES PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A
SOUTHWESTERLY 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH DECENT MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...AS STATED ABOVE...THIS WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST AND IS ALSO THE MOST UNCERTAIN.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MOST LIKELY MOVING ANYWHERE FROM
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70
BENCHMARK.  A TRACK OF THIS SORT IS LIKELY TO BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW
TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
SIX INCHES OF SNOW FALLING ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS.
ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR AND
LIKELY TO AFFECT MANY.

THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND BRINGS
AT LEAST THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.
WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER TO THE EAST...IT TOO BRINGS AT LEAST THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND HAS A COLDER
THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SIX INCHES OF SNOW AT
LEAST OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND LIKELY FARTHER EAST.  THIS IS
DEFINITELY A STORM TO WATCH.

WHILE THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT
THIS POINT...APPEARS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR WEST
OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT QUIET
WEATHER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LESS CERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO AFFECT A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. STEADY RAIN EXITS
13-16Z WITH NUMBEROUS SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...KEEPING
MVFR/IFR CIGS LINGERING. S WIND GUSTS TO 35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS
SE NEW ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS 15-19Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO
25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55
KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
BUT NOT IN TAF AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH GUSTY S WINDS. LLWS
LIKELY TODAY WITH 50 KT AT 2K FT.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW WINDS GUST TO 25KTS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THU AM...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW/RAIN.  GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW...INCLUDING HEAVY SNOW...IS
WEST OF WORCESTER THROUGH WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT.

THU PM THROUGH FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST SCA WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS.  NORTHWESTERLY GALES LIKELY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR RIZ002-
     004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KGYX 241501 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1001 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED POP TO BETTER REFLECT LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...AS PCPN QUICKLY MOVES E OUT OF THE AREA. LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...PATCHY DRIZZLE...AND SCT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
BEHIND THE MAIN SHIELD OF PCPN. HAVE ALSO UPDATED WINDS TO REFLECT
GUSTY SELY DOWNSLOPE ALONG NW FACING MTNS IN THE NRN ZONES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED INTO NH AND EASTERN
MAINE ALREADY AS OF 7 AM. A COUPLE SITES REPORTED MINI HEAT
BURSTS...INCLUDING LANCASTER AND WHITEFIELD...WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING 8-10 DEGREES OR MORE WITHIN AN HOUR. THESE SITES ARE
BENEFITING FROM STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AS TURN TURN SSE AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT. STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE
ENDING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
EXCEPT TO INPUT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 40S
AND 50S AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR INITIALLY. A COOL FRONT
DOES MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY
AT THE SURFACE. THIS ALONG WITH DRIER UPPER LEVELS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR WILL HELP CLEAR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TUESDAY...MAKING IT A
WARM AND DRY DAY (IF A LITTLE WINDY). DIURNAL RANGES MAY ONLY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NORTH TO SEVERAL ACROSS THE SOUTH (LOWER
40S TO MID 50S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT ENHANCING
CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY KICKING OFF A FEW FLURRIES. MID LEVEL
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HIGH
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS
FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SNOW TO
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. NEW GFS SLIGHTLY
COLDER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP PRECIP ALL SNOW EVEN IN COASTAL AREAS WHERE
THE HIGHEST TOTALS WOULD BE FOUND. SLIGHTLY COLDER SOLUTION NOTED
IN THE NEW ECMWF BUT WOULD STILL LIKELY SEE SOME MIXING IN
COASTAL ZONES. ECMWF ALSO STICKING WITH QPF AMOUNTS NEARLY DOUBLE
THAT OF THE GFS. SO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY. POTENTIAL
FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS THERE BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON
WATCHES AT THIS POINT FOR ABOVE MENTIONED REASONS.

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES. IF CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS
HOLD WILL LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THE SNOW FALLING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME AREAS SEEING SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WAS TIMING OF HEAVY
RAIN THIS MORNING AND ITS IMPACTS ON CEILINGS. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON TO DRIZZLE BUT LOW STRATUS
WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS NO COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO SCOUR
MOISTURE OUT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY
FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LLWS THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY WHERE A
SCA IS IN EFFECT. WILL NEED SCAS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES ONCE GALE
WARNINGS EXPIRE LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 241501 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1001 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED POP TO BETTER REFLECT LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...AS PCPN QUICKLY MOVES E OUT OF THE AREA. LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...PATCHY DRIZZLE...AND SCT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
BEHIND THE MAIN SHIELD OF PCPN. HAVE ALSO UPDATED WINDS TO REFLECT
GUSTY SELY DOWNSLOPE ALONG NW FACING MTNS IN THE NRN ZONES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED INTO NH AND EASTERN
MAINE ALREADY AS OF 7 AM. A COUPLE SITES REPORTED MINI HEAT
BURSTS...INCLUDING LANCASTER AND WHITEFIELD...WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING 8-10 DEGREES OR MORE WITHIN AN HOUR. THESE SITES ARE
BENEFITING FROM STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AS TURN TURN SSE AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT. STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE
ENDING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
EXCEPT TO INPUT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 40S
AND 50S AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR INITIALLY. A COOL FRONT
DOES MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY
AT THE SURFACE. THIS ALONG WITH DRIER UPPER LEVELS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR WILL HELP CLEAR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TUESDAY...MAKING IT A
WARM AND DRY DAY (IF A LITTLE WINDY). DIURNAL RANGES MAY ONLY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NORTH TO SEVERAL ACROSS THE SOUTH (LOWER
40S TO MID 50S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT ENHANCING
CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY KICKING OFF A FEW FLURRIES. MID LEVEL
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HIGH
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS
FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SNOW TO
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. NEW GFS SLIGHTLY
COLDER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP PRECIP ALL SNOW EVEN IN COASTAL AREAS WHERE
THE HIGHEST TOTALS WOULD BE FOUND. SLIGHTLY COLDER SOLUTION NOTED
IN THE NEW ECMWF BUT WOULD STILL LIKELY SEE SOME MIXING IN
COASTAL ZONES. ECMWF ALSO STICKING WITH QPF AMOUNTS NEARLY DOUBLE
THAT OF THE GFS. SO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY. POTENTIAL
FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS THERE BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON
WATCHES AT THIS POINT FOR ABOVE MENTIONED REASONS.

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES. IF CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS
HOLD WILL LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THE SNOW FALLING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME AREAS SEEING SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WAS TIMING OF HEAVY
RAIN THIS MORNING AND ITS IMPACTS ON CEILINGS. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON TO DRIZZLE BUT LOW STRATUS
WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS NO COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO SCOUR
MOISTURE OUT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY
FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LLWS THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY WHERE A
SCA IS IN EFFECT. WILL NEED SCAS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES ONCE GALE
WARNINGS EXPIRE LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 241501 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1001 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED POP TO BETTER REFLECT LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...AS PCPN QUICKLY MOVES E OUT OF THE AREA. LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...PATCHY DRIZZLE...AND SCT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
BEHIND THE MAIN SHIELD OF PCPN. HAVE ALSO UPDATED WINDS TO REFLECT
GUSTY SELY DOWNSLOPE ALONG NW FACING MTNS IN THE NRN ZONES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED INTO NH AND EASTERN
MAINE ALREADY AS OF 7 AM. A COUPLE SITES REPORTED MINI HEAT
BURSTS...INCLUDING LANCASTER AND WHITEFIELD...WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING 8-10 DEGREES OR MORE WITHIN AN HOUR. THESE SITES ARE
BENEFITING FROM STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AS TURN TURN SSE AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT. STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE
ENDING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
EXCEPT TO INPUT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 40S
AND 50S AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR INITIALLY. A COOL FRONT
DOES MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY
AT THE SURFACE. THIS ALONG WITH DRIER UPPER LEVELS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR WILL HELP CLEAR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TUESDAY...MAKING IT A
WARM AND DRY DAY (IF A LITTLE WINDY). DIURNAL RANGES MAY ONLY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NORTH TO SEVERAL ACROSS THE SOUTH (LOWER
40S TO MID 50S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT ENHANCING
CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY KICKING OFF A FEW FLURRIES. MID LEVEL
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HIGH
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS
FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SNOW TO
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. NEW GFS SLIGHTLY
COLDER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP PRECIP ALL SNOW EVEN IN COASTAL AREAS WHERE
THE HIGHEST TOTALS WOULD BE FOUND. SLIGHTLY COLDER SOLUTION NOTED
IN THE NEW ECMWF BUT WOULD STILL LIKELY SEE SOME MIXING IN
COASTAL ZONES. ECMWF ALSO STICKING WITH QPF AMOUNTS NEARLY DOUBLE
THAT OF THE GFS. SO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY. POTENTIAL
FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS THERE BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON
WATCHES AT THIS POINT FOR ABOVE MENTIONED REASONS.

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES. IF CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS
HOLD WILL LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THE SNOW FALLING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME AREAS SEEING SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WAS TIMING OF HEAVY
RAIN THIS MORNING AND ITS IMPACTS ON CEILINGS. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON TO DRIZZLE BUT LOW STRATUS
WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS NO COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO SCOUR
MOISTURE OUT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY
FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LLWS THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY WHERE A
SCA IS IN EFFECT. WILL NEED SCAS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES ONCE GALE
WARNINGS EXPIRE LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 241501 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1001 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED POP TO BETTER REFLECT LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...AS PCPN QUICKLY MOVES E OUT OF THE AREA. LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...PATCHY DRIZZLE...AND SCT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
BEHIND THE MAIN SHIELD OF PCPN. HAVE ALSO UPDATED WINDS TO REFLECT
GUSTY SELY DOWNSLOPE ALONG NW FACING MTNS IN THE NRN ZONES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED INTO NH AND EASTERN
MAINE ALREADY AS OF 7 AM. A COUPLE SITES REPORTED MINI HEAT
BURSTS...INCLUDING LANCASTER AND WHITEFIELD...WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING 8-10 DEGREES OR MORE WITHIN AN HOUR. THESE SITES ARE
BENEFITING FROM STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AS TURN TURN SSE AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT. STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE
ENDING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
EXCEPT TO INPUT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 40S
AND 50S AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR INITIALLY. A COOL FRONT
DOES MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY
AT THE SURFACE. THIS ALONG WITH DRIER UPPER LEVELS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR WILL HELP CLEAR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TUESDAY...MAKING IT A
WARM AND DRY DAY (IF A LITTLE WINDY). DIURNAL RANGES MAY ONLY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NORTH TO SEVERAL ACROSS THE SOUTH (LOWER
40S TO MID 50S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT ENHANCING
CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY KICKING OFF A FEW FLURRIES. MID LEVEL
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HIGH
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS
FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SNOW TO
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. NEW GFS SLIGHTLY
COLDER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP PRECIP ALL SNOW EVEN IN COASTAL AREAS WHERE
THE HIGHEST TOTALS WOULD BE FOUND. SLIGHTLY COLDER SOLUTION NOTED
IN THE NEW ECMWF BUT WOULD STILL LIKELY SEE SOME MIXING IN
COASTAL ZONES. ECMWF ALSO STICKING WITH QPF AMOUNTS NEARLY DOUBLE
THAT OF THE GFS. SO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY. POTENTIAL
FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS THERE BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON
WATCHES AT THIS POINT FOR ABOVE MENTIONED REASONS.

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES. IF CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS
HOLD WILL LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THE SNOW FALLING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME AREAS SEEING SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WAS TIMING OF HEAVY
RAIN THIS MORNING AND ITS IMPACTS ON CEILINGS. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON TO DRIZZLE BUT LOW STRATUS
WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS NO COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO SCOUR
MOISTURE OUT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY
FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LLWS THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY WHERE A
SCA IS IN EFFECT. WILL NEED SCAS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES ONCE GALE
WARNINGS EXPIRE LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KBOX 241158
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
658 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET TRACK AND EFFECTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
 ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

645 AM UPDATE...
AXIS OF RAINFALL RACING EAST ACROSS SNE THIS MORNING. DRY SLOT
ALREADY MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW ENG AND HEAVIEST RAIN IS BEGINNING
TO MOVE EAST OF CT VALLEY. LOOKING AT JUST A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THIS MORNING BEFORE DRY SLOT MOVES IN
AND RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MID TO LATE MORNING. TEMPS
HAVE RISEN INTO THE 50S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN BUT COOLER AIR
HANGING TOUGH IN THE CT VALLEY WHERE STILL UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THIS COOL AIR WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH TEMPS
RISING QUICKLY THROUGH THE 50S. SEEING WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT NEAR
THE S COAST. POTENTIAL FOR G35-40 KT SE NEW ENG THROUGH 18Z AS LLJ
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
POTENT LOW LEVEL JET +4SD WILL TRANSPORT ANOMALOUS PWATS /+3 TO
+4SD/ NORTH INTO THE REGION TO BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE REGION. ELEVATED THUNDER INDICES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST BUT CANT
RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE NOSE OF LLJ
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SYSTEM IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND NOTE
THAT DRY SLOT IS ALREADY MOVING INTO CENTRAL PA SO DURATION OF
STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL BE SHORT LIKELY LASTING NO MORE THAN 6
HOURS...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF 13-16Z FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL
LIMIT QPF WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.50-1.00 ACROSS THE
REGION WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. JUST THE TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.

STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ALONG SE NEW ENG COAST...
FAIRLY POTENT LOW LEVEL JET 70-75 KT AT 925 MB WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS SE NEW ENG 12-18Z. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS PRESENT
AT THE TIME THE JET IS MOVING THROUGH SO THIS WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH
OF THIS WIND CAN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
FINE LINE OF CONVECTION. AND THIS IS NOT REALLY AN IDEAL SITUATION
FOR A FINE LINE GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND NO COLD FRONT.
TAKING ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THE MAGNITUDE OF THE JET OFTEN IS A
DECENT STARTING POINT FOR ESTIMATING GUST POTENTIAL WITH THESE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JETS WITH INVERSION IN PLACE. THIS SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR G35-40 KT WHICH IS RIGHT NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR THE CURRENT
AREA. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCE OF REALIZING GUSTS TO 45+ MPH WILL BE
OVER CAPE/ISLANDS AND AREAS NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL IN SE MA.

THIS AFTERNOON...
DRY SLOT WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH RAINFALL
EXITING THE REGION...BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE WINDY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH EXPECTED AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 40 MPH SE NEW ENG. 925 MB TEMPS 13-15C SO IT WILL
BE A RATHER MILD DAY FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. 70 DEGREES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF WE
COULD GET SOME SUNSHINE BUT THIS DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
* PLOWABLE SNOW STORM LIKELY WEDNESDAY...EXACT TRACK AND LOCATION OF
  RAIN/SNOW LINE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
* COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER STORM LATE IN THE WEEKEND

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER
STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING.  UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THIS STORM...PARTICULARLY THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL AFFECT EVERYTHING FROM AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TO
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS...WHICH WILL IN TURN AFFECT THE TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION.  THE ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW TRACKING ANYWHERE FROM
OVER PENNSYLVANIA TO OUT TO SEA WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.  THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE
TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND /AT THE WESTERN END OF THE
ENVELOPE/ TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK /AT THE EASTERN END OF
THE ENVELOPE.  OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH MORE DISCREPANCIES SEEN WITH
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.  THE GFS IS FORECASTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS IS
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT THOUGH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY EXPECTED THOUGH IT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.  LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
MARITIMES PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A
SOUTHWESTERLY 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH DECENT MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...AS STATED ABOVE...THIS WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST AND IS ALSO THE MOST UNCERTAIN.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MOST LIKELY MOVING ANYWHERE FROM
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70
BENCHMARK.  A TRACK OF THIS SORT IS LIKELY TO BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW
TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
SIX INCHES OF SNOW FALLING ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS.
ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR AND
LIKELY TO AFFECT MANY.

THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND BRINGS
AT LEAST THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.
WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER TO THE EAST...IT TOO BRINGS AT LEAST THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND HAS A COLDER
THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SIX INCHES OF SNOW AT
LEAST OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND LIKELY FARTHER EAST.  THIS IS
DEFINITELY A STORM TO WATCH.

WHILE THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT
THIS POINT...APPEARS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR WEST
OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT QUIET
WEATHER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LESS CERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO AFFECT A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. STEADY RAIN EXITS
13-16Z WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR/IFR
CIGS WILL PERSIST. S WIND GUSTS TO 35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS SE NEW
ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS 12-16Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO 25-35 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55 KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
BUT NOT IN TAF AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH GUSTY S WINDS. LLWS
LIKELY TODAY WITH 50 KT AT 2K FT.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW WINDS GUST TO 25KTS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THU AM...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW/RAIN.  GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW...INCLUDING HEAVY SNOW...IS
WEST OF WORCESTER THROUGH WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT.

THU PM THROUGH FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST SCA WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS.  NORTHWESTERLY GALES LIKELY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR RIZ002-
     004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 241155 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
654 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED INTO NH AND EASTERN MAINE ALREADY AS OF 7
AM. A COUPLE SITES REPORTED MINI HEAT BURSTS...INCLUDING LANCASTER
AND WHITEFIELD...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING 8-10 DEGREES OR MORE
WITHIN AN HOUR. THESE SITES ARE BENEFITING FROM STRONG DOWNSLOPING
WINDS AS TURN TURN SSE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. STEADY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE ENDING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT TO INPUT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT
NEARS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ARCS
INTO SOUTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND WILL BE LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN NH
AND SOUTHWEST MAINE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A FEW BREAKS IN THE
PRECEDENT CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO DROP TO
FREEZING OR BELOW. THE WAA/CLOUD COVER SHOULD RAISE READINGS A
COUPLE DEGREES AT LEAST AHEAD OF ANY PRECIPITATION... SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY FREEZING RAIN.

EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT RAIN TO TRANSITION TO HEAVIER RAIN AS THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING. VERY STRONG LLJ NOSES ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH
70 KTS JUST OFF THE DECK. WE DON`T MIX MUCH AT ALL TODAY AND ONLY
A SMALL INVERSION WILL BE WHAT KEEPS US FROM REALIZING VERY STRONG
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THAT SAID...WE WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY GUSTS IN
THE 20-30 MPH RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL. STEADY RAIN GIVES
WAY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL DISSIPATE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 40S
AND 50S AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR INITIALLY. A COOL FRONT
DOES MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY
AT THE SURFACE. THIS ALONG WITH DRIER UPPER LEVELS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR WILL HELP CLEAR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TUESDAY...MAKING IT A
WARM AND DRY DAY (IF A LITTLE WINDY). DIURNAL RANGES MAY ONLY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NORTH TO SEVERAL ACROSS THE SOUTH (LOWER
40S TO MID 50S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT ENHANCING
CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY KICKING OFF A FEW FLURRIES. MID LEVEL
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HIGH
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS
FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SNOW TO
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. NEW GFS SLIGHTLY
COLDER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP PRECIP ALL SNOW EVEN IN COASTAL AREAS WHERE
THE HIGHEST TOTALS WOULD BE FOUND. SLIGHTLY COLDER SOLUTION NOTED
IN THE NEW ECMWF BUT WOULD STILL LIKELY SEE SOME MIXING IN
COASTAL ZONES. ECMWF ALSO STICKING WITH QPF AMOUNTS NEARLY DOUBLE
THAT OF THE GFS. SO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY. POTENTIAL
FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS THERE BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON
WATCHES AT THIS POINT FOR ABOVE MENTIONED REASONS.

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES. IF CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS
HOLD WILL LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THE SNOW FALLING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME AREAS SEEING SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WAS TIMING OF HEAVY
RAIN THIS MORNING AND ITS IMPACTS ON CEILINGS. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON TO DRIZZLE BUT LOW STRATUS
WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS NO COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO SCOUR
MOISTURE OUT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY
FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LLWS THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY WHERE A
SCA IS IN EFFECT. WILL NEED SCAS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES ONCE GALE
WARNINGS EXPIRE LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

HANES/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KGYX 241155 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
654 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED INTO NH AND EASTERN MAINE ALREADY AS OF 7
AM. A COUPLE SITES REPORTED MINI HEAT BURSTS...INCLUDING LANCASTER
AND WHITEFIELD...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING 8-10 DEGREES OR MORE
WITHIN AN HOUR. THESE SITES ARE BENEFITING FROM STRONG DOWNSLOPING
WINDS AS TURN TURN SSE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. STEADY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE ENDING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT TO INPUT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT
NEARS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ARCS
INTO SOUTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND WILL BE LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN NH
AND SOUTHWEST MAINE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A FEW BREAKS IN THE
PRECEDENT CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO DROP TO
FREEZING OR BELOW. THE WAA/CLOUD COVER SHOULD RAISE READINGS A
COUPLE DEGREES AT LEAST AHEAD OF ANY PRECIPITATION... SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY FREEZING RAIN.

EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT RAIN TO TRANSITION TO HEAVIER RAIN AS THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING. VERY STRONG LLJ NOSES ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH
70 KTS JUST OFF THE DECK. WE DON`T MIX MUCH AT ALL TODAY AND ONLY
A SMALL INVERSION WILL BE WHAT KEEPS US FROM REALIZING VERY STRONG
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THAT SAID...WE WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY GUSTS IN
THE 20-30 MPH RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL. STEADY RAIN GIVES
WAY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL DISSIPATE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 40S
AND 50S AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR INITIALLY. A COOL FRONT
DOES MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY
AT THE SURFACE. THIS ALONG WITH DRIER UPPER LEVELS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR WILL HELP CLEAR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TUESDAY...MAKING IT A
WARM AND DRY DAY (IF A LITTLE WINDY). DIURNAL RANGES MAY ONLY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NORTH TO SEVERAL ACROSS THE SOUTH (LOWER
40S TO MID 50S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT ENHANCING
CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY KICKING OFF A FEW FLURRIES. MID LEVEL
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HIGH
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS
FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SNOW TO
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. NEW GFS SLIGHTLY
COLDER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP PRECIP ALL SNOW EVEN IN COASTAL AREAS WHERE
THE HIGHEST TOTALS WOULD BE FOUND. SLIGHTLY COLDER SOLUTION NOTED
IN THE NEW ECMWF BUT WOULD STILL LIKELY SEE SOME MIXING IN
COASTAL ZONES. ECMWF ALSO STICKING WITH QPF AMOUNTS NEARLY DOUBLE
THAT OF THE GFS. SO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY. POTENTIAL
FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS THERE BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON
WATCHES AT THIS POINT FOR ABOVE MENTIONED REASONS.

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES. IF CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS
HOLD WILL LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THE SNOW FALLING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME AREAS SEEING SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WAS TIMING OF HEAVY
RAIN THIS MORNING AND ITS IMPACTS ON CEILINGS. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON TO DRIZZLE BUT LOW STRATUS
WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS NO COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO SCOUR
MOISTURE OUT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY
FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LLWS THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY WHERE A
SCA IS IN EFFECT. WILL NEED SCAS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES ONCE GALE
WARNINGS EXPIRE LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

HANES/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KGYX 241155 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
654 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED INTO NH AND EASTERN MAINE ALREADY AS OF 7
AM. A COUPLE SITES REPORTED MINI HEAT BURSTS...INCLUDING LANCASTER
AND WHITEFIELD...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING 8-10 DEGREES OR MORE
WITHIN AN HOUR. THESE SITES ARE BENEFITING FROM STRONG DOWNSLOPING
WINDS AS TURN TURN SSE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. STEADY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE ENDING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT TO INPUT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT
NEARS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ARCS
INTO SOUTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND WILL BE LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN NH
AND SOUTHWEST MAINE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A FEW BREAKS IN THE
PRECEDENT CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO DROP TO
FREEZING OR BELOW. THE WAA/CLOUD COVER SHOULD RAISE READINGS A
COUPLE DEGREES AT LEAST AHEAD OF ANY PRECIPITATION... SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY FREEZING RAIN.

EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT RAIN TO TRANSITION TO HEAVIER RAIN AS THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING. VERY STRONG LLJ NOSES ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH
70 KTS JUST OFF THE DECK. WE DON`T MIX MUCH AT ALL TODAY AND ONLY
A SMALL INVERSION WILL BE WHAT KEEPS US FROM REALIZING VERY STRONG
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THAT SAID...WE WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY GUSTS IN
THE 20-30 MPH RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL. STEADY RAIN GIVES
WAY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL DISSIPATE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 40S
AND 50S AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR INITIALLY. A COOL FRONT
DOES MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY
AT THE SURFACE. THIS ALONG WITH DRIER UPPER LEVELS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR WILL HELP CLEAR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TUESDAY...MAKING IT A
WARM AND DRY DAY (IF A LITTLE WINDY). DIURNAL RANGES MAY ONLY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NORTH TO SEVERAL ACROSS THE SOUTH (LOWER
40S TO MID 50S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT ENHANCING
CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY KICKING OFF A FEW FLURRIES. MID LEVEL
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HIGH
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS
FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SNOW TO
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. NEW GFS SLIGHTLY
COLDER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP PRECIP ALL SNOW EVEN IN COASTAL AREAS WHERE
THE HIGHEST TOTALS WOULD BE FOUND. SLIGHTLY COLDER SOLUTION NOTED
IN THE NEW ECMWF BUT WOULD STILL LIKELY SEE SOME MIXING IN
COASTAL ZONES. ECMWF ALSO STICKING WITH QPF AMOUNTS NEARLY DOUBLE
THAT OF THE GFS. SO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY. POTENTIAL
FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS THERE BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON
WATCHES AT THIS POINT FOR ABOVE MENTIONED REASONS.

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES. IF CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS
HOLD WILL LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THE SNOW FALLING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME AREAS SEEING SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WAS TIMING OF HEAVY
RAIN THIS MORNING AND ITS IMPACTS ON CEILINGS. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON TO DRIZZLE BUT LOW STRATUS
WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS NO COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO SCOUR
MOISTURE OUT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY
FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LLWS THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY WHERE A
SCA IS IN EFFECT. WILL NEED SCAS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES ONCE GALE
WARNINGS EXPIRE LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

HANES/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KGYX 241155 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
654 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED INTO NH AND EASTERN MAINE ALREADY AS OF 7
AM. A COUPLE SITES REPORTED MINI HEAT BURSTS...INCLUDING LANCASTER
AND WHITEFIELD...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING 8-10 DEGREES OR MORE
WITHIN AN HOUR. THESE SITES ARE BENEFITING FROM STRONG DOWNSLOPING
WINDS AS TURN TURN SSE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. STEADY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE ENDING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT TO INPUT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT
NEARS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ARCS
INTO SOUTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND WILL BE LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN NH
AND SOUTHWEST MAINE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A FEW BREAKS IN THE
PRECEDENT CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO DROP TO
FREEZING OR BELOW. THE WAA/CLOUD COVER SHOULD RAISE READINGS A
COUPLE DEGREES AT LEAST AHEAD OF ANY PRECIPITATION... SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY FREEZING RAIN.

EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT RAIN TO TRANSITION TO HEAVIER RAIN AS THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING. VERY STRONG LLJ NOSES ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH
70 KTS JUST OFF THE DECK. WE DON`T MIX MUCH AT ALL TODAY AND ONLY
A SMALL INVERSION WILL BE WHAT KEEPS US FROM REALIZING VERY STRONG
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THAT SAID...WE WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY GUSTS IN
THE 20-30 MPH RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL. STEADY RAIN GIVES
WAY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL DISSIPATE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 40S
AND 50S AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR INITIALLY. A COOL FRONT
DOES MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY
AT THE SURFACE. THIS ALONG WITH DRIER UPPER LEVELS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR WILL HELP CLEAR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TUESDAY...MAKING IT A
WARM AND DRY DAY (IF A LITTLE WINDY). DIURNAL RANGES MAY ONLY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NORTH TO SEVERAL ACROSS THE SOUTH (LOWER
40S TO MID 50S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT ENHANCING
CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY KICKING OFF A FEW FLURRIES. MID LEVEL
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HIGH
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS
FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SNOW TO
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. NEW GFS SLIGHTLY
COLDER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP PRECIP ALL SNOW EVEN IN COASTAL AREAS WHERE
THE HIGHEST TOTALS WOULD BE FOUND. SLIGHTLY COLDER SOLUTION NOTED
IN THE NEW ECMWF BUT WOULD STILL LIKELY SEE SOME MIXING IN
COASTAL ZONES. ECMWF ALSO STICKING WITH QPF AMOUNTS NEARLY DOUBLE
THAT OF THE GFS. SO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY. POTENTIAL
FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS THERE BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON
WATCHES AT THIS POINT FOR ABOVE MENTIONED REASONS.

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES. IF CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS
HOLD WILL LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THE SNOW FALLING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME AREAS SEEING SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WAS TIMING OF HEAVY
RAIN THIS MORNING AND ITS IMPACTS ON CEILINGS. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON TO DRIZZLE BUT LOW STRATUS
WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS NO COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO SCOUR
MOISTURE OUT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY
FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LLWS THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY WHERE A
SCA IS IN EFFECT. WILL NEED SCAS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES ONCE GALE
WARNINGS EXPIRE LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

HANES/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KGYX 241154 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
654 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED INTO NH AND EASTERN MAINE ALREADY AS OF 7
AM. A COUPLE SITES REPORTED MINI HEAT BURSTS...INCLUDING LANCASTER
AND WHITEFIELD...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING 8-10 DEGREES OR MORE
WITHIN AN HOUR. THESE SITES ARE BENEFITING FROM STRONG DOWNSLOPING
WINDS AS TURN TURN SSE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. STEADY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE ENDING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT TO INPUT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT
NEARS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ARCS
INTO SOUTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND WILL BE LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN NH
AND SOUTHWEST MAINE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A FEW BREAKS IN THE
PRECEDENT CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO DROP TO
FREEZING OR BELOW. THE WAA/CLOUD COVER SHOULD RAISE READINGS A
COUPLE DEGREES AT LEAST AHEAD OF ANY PRECIPITATION... SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY FREEZING RAIN.

EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT RAIN TO TRANSITION TO HEAVIER RAIN AS THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING. VERY STRONG LLJ NOSES ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH
70 KTS JUST OFF THE DECK. WE DON`T MIX MUCH AT ALL TODAY AND ONLY
A SMALL INVERSION WILL BE WHAT KEEPS US FROM REALIZING VERY STRONG
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THAT SAID...WE WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL. STEADY RAIN GIVES
WAY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL DISSIPATE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 40S
AND 50S AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR INITIALLY. A COOL FRONT
DOES MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY
AT THE SURFACE. THIS ALONG WITH DRIER UPPER LEVELS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR WILL HELP CLEAR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TUESDAY...MAKING IT A
WARM AND DRY DAY (IF A LITTLE WINDY). DIURNAL RANGES MAY ONLY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NORTH TO SEVERAL ACROSS THE SOUTH (LOWER
40S TO MID 50S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT ENHANCING
CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY KICKING OFF A FEW FLURRIES. MID LEVEL
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HIGH
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS
FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SNOW TO
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. NEW GFS SLIGHTLY
COLDER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP PRECIP ALL SNOW EVEN IN COASTAL AREAS WHERE
THE HIGHEST TOTALS WOULD BE FOUND. SLIGHTLY COLDER SOLUTION NOTED
IN THE NEW ECMWF BUT WOULD STILL LIKELY SEE SOME MIXING IN
COASTAL ZONES. ECMWF ALSO STICKING WITH QPF AMOUNTS NEARLY DOUBLE
THAT OF THE GFS. SO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY. POTENTIAL
FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS THERE BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON
WATCHES AT THIS POINT FOR ABOVE MENTIONED REASONS.

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES. IF CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS
HOLD WILL LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THE SNOW FALLING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME AREAS SEEING SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WAS TIMING OF HEAVY
RAIN THIS MORNING AND ITS IMPACTS ON CEILINGS. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON TO DRIZZLE BUT LOW STRATUS
WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS NO COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO SCOUR
MOISTURE OUT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY
FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LLWS THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY WHERE A
SCA IS IN EFFECT. WILL NEED SCAS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES ONCE GALE
WARNINGS EXPIRE LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

HANES/SINSABAUGH



000
FXUS61 KGYX 241154 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
654 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED INTO NH AND EASTERN MAINE ALREADY AS OF 7
AM. A COUPLE SITES REPORTED MINI HEAT BURSTS...INCLUDING LANCASTER
AND WHITEFIELD...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING 8-10 DEGREES OR MORE
WITHIN AN HOUR. THESE SITES ARE BENEFITING FROM STRONG DOWNSLOPING
WINDS AS TURN TURN SSE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. STEADY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE ENDING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT TO INPUT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT
NEARS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ARCS
INTO SOUTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND WILL BE LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN NH
AND SOUTHWEST MAINE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A FEW BREAKS IN THE
PRECEDENT CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO DROP TO
FREEZING OR BELOW. THE WAA/CLOUD COVER SHOULD RAISE READINGS A
COUPLE DEGREES AT LEAST AHEAD OF ANY PRECIPITATION... SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY FREEZING RAIN.

EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT RAIN TO TRANSITION TO HEAVIER RAIN AS THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING. VERY STRONG LLJ NOSES ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH
70 KTS JUST OFF THE DECK. WE DON`T MIX MUCH AT ALL TODAY AND ONLY
A SMALL INVERSION WILL BE WHAT KEEPS US FROM REALIZING VERY STRONG
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THAT SAID...WE WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL. STEADY RAIN GIVES
WAY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL DISSIPATE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 40S
AND 50S AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR INITIALLY. A COOL FRONT
DOES MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY
AT THE SURFACE. THIS ALONG WITH DRIER UPPER LEVELS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR WILL HELP CLEAR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TUESDAY...MAKING IT A
WARM AND DRY DAY (IF A LITTLE WINDY). DIURNAL RANGES MAY ONLY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NORTH TO SEVERAL ACROSS THE SOUTH (LOWER
40S TO MID 50S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT ENHANCING
CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY KICKING OFF A FEW FLURRIES. MID LEVEL
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HIGH
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS
FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SNOW TO
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. NEW GFS SLIGHTLY
COLDER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP PRECIP ALL SNOW EVEN IN COASTAL AREAS WHERE
THE HIGHEST TOTALS WOULD BE FOUND. SLIGHTLY COLDER SOLUTION NOTED
IN THE NEW ECMWF BUT WOULD STILL LIKELY SEE SOME MIXING IN
COASTAL ZONES. ECMWF ALSO STICKING WITH QPF AMOUNTS NEARLY DOUBLE
THAT OF THE GFS. SO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY. POTENTIAL
FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS THERE BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON
WATCHES AT THIS POINT FOR ABOVE MENTIONED REASONS.

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES. IF CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS
HOLD WILL LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THE SNOW FALLING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME AREAS SEEING SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WAS TIMING OF HEAVY
RAIN THIS MORNING AND ITS IMPACTS ON CEILINGS. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON TO DRIZZLE BUT LOW STRATUS
WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS NO COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO SCOUR
MOISTURE OUT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY
FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LLWS THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY WHERE A
SCA IS IN EFFECT. WILL NEED SCAS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES ONCE GALE
WARNINGS EXPIRE LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

HANES/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240930
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
430 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET TRACK AND EFFECTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
 ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

RAIN BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENG AND WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REST OF SNE THROUGH DAYBREAK. POTENT LOW LEVEL JET +4SD WILL
TRANSPORT ANOMALOUS PWATS /+3 TO +4SD/ NORTH INTO THE REGION TO
BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION. ELEVATED THUNDER
INDICES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE NOSE OF LLJ MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SYSTEM IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND NOTE THAT DRY SLOT IS ALREADY
MOVING INTO CENTRAL PA SO DURATION OF STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
SHORT LIKELY LASTING NO MORE THAN 6 HOURS...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF
13-16Z FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.50-1.00 ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. JUST THE TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED.

STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ALONG SE NEW ENG COAST...
FAIRLY POTENT LOW LEVEL JET 70-75 KT AT 925 MB WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS SE NEW ENG 12-18Z. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS PRESENT
AT THE TIME THE JET IS MOVING THROUGH SO THIS WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH
OF THIS WIND CAN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
FINE LINE OF CONVECTION. AND THIS IS NOT REALLY AN IDEAL SITUATION
FOR A FINE LINE GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND NO COLD FRONT.
TAKING ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THE MAGNITUDE OF THE JET OFTEN IS A
DECENT STARTING POINT FOR ESTIMATING GUST POTENTIAL WITH THESE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JETS WITH INVERSION IN PLACE. THIS SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR G35-40 KT WHICH IS RIGHT NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR THE CURRENT
AREA. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCE OF REALIZING GUSTS TO 45+ MPH WILL BE
OVER CAPE/ISLANDS AND AREAS NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL IN SE MA.

THIS AFTERNOON...
DRY SLOT WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH RAINFALL
EXITING THE REGION...BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE WINDY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH EXPECTED AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 40 MPH SE NEW ENG. 925 MB TEMPS 13-15C SO IT WILL
BE A RATHER MILD DAY FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. 70 DEGREES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF WE
COULD GET SOME SUNSHINE BUT THIS DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
* PLOWABLE SNOW STORM LIKELY WEDNESDAY...EXACT TRACK AND LOCATION OF
  RAIN/SNOW LINE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
* COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER STORM LATE IN THE WEEKEND

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER
STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING.  UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THIS STORM...PARTICULARLY THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL AFFECT EVERYTHING FROM AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TO
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS...WHICH WILL IN TURN AFFECT THE TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION.  THE ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW TRACKING ANYWHERE FROM
OVER PENNSYLVANIA TO OUT TO SEA WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.  THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE
TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND /AT THE WESTERN END OF THE
ENVELOPE/ TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK /AT THE EASTERN END OF
THE ENVELOPE.  OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH MORE DISCREPANCIES SEEN WITH
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.  THE GFS IS FORECASTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS IS
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT THOUGH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY EXPECTED THOUGH IT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.  LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
MARITIMES PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A
SOUTHWESTERLY 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH DECENT MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...AS STATED ABOVE...THIS WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST AND IS ALSO THE MOST UNCERTAIN.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MOST LIKELY MOVING ANYWHERE FROM
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70
BENCHMARK.  A TRACK OF THIS SORT IS LIKELY TO BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW
TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
SIX INCHES OF SNOW FALLING ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS.
ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR AND
LIKELY TO AFFECT MANY.

THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND BRINGS
AT LEAST THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.
WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER TO THE EAST...IT TOO BRINGS AT LEAST THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND HAS A COLDER
THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SIX INCHES OF SNOW AT
LEAST OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND LIKELY FARTHER EAST.  THIS IS
DEFINITELY A STORM TO WATCH.

WHILE THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT
THIS POINT...APPEARS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR WEST
OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT QUIET
WEATHER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LESS CERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO AFFECT A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR SW TO NE
08-12Z AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE EXITING 14-16Z WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST. S WIND GUSTS TO
35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS SE NEW ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS
12-16Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO 25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS
LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55 KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. KEPT CIGS ABOVE IFR WITH
GUSTY S WINDS...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS WILL BE OF GREAT
CONCERN IN THE MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WEAKER E/SE FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW WINDS GUST TO 25KTS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THU AM...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW/RAIN.  GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW...INCLUDING HEAVY SNOW...IS
WEST OF WORCESTER THROUGH WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT.

THU PM THROUGH FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST SCA WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS.  NORTHWESTERLY GALES LIKELY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR RIZ002-
     004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC



000
FXUS61 KBOX 240930
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
430 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET TRACK AND EFFECTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
 ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

RAIN BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENG AND WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REST OF SNE THROUGH DAYBREAK. POTENT LOW LEVEL JET +4SD WILL
TRANSPORT ANOMALOUS PWATS /+3 TO +4SD/ NORTH INTO THE REGION TO
BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION. ELEVATED THUNDER
INDICES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE NOSE OF LLJ MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SYSTEM IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND NOTE THAT DRY SLOT IS ALREADY
MOVING INTO CENTRAL PA SO DURATION OF STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
SHORT LIKELY LASTING NO MORE THAN 6 HOURS...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF
13-16Z FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.50-1.00 ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. JUST THE TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED.

STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ALONG SE NEW ENG COAST...
FAIRLY POTENT LOW LEVEL JET 70-75 KT AT 925 MB WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS SE NEW ENG 12-18Z. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS PRESENT
AT THE TIME THE JET IS MOVING THROUGH SO THIS WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH
OF THIS WIND CAN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
FINE LINE OF CONVECTION. AND THIS IS NOT REALLY AN IDEAL SITUATION
FOR A FINE LINE GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND NO COLD FRONT.
TAKING ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THE MAGNITUDE OF THE JET OFTEN IS A
DECENT STARTING POINT FOR ESTIMATING GUST POTENTIAL WITH THESE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JETS WITH INVERSION IN PLACE. THIS SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR G35-40 KT WHICH IS RIGHT NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR THE CURRENT
AREA. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCE OF REALIZING GUSTS TO 45+ MPH WILL BE
OVER CAPE/ISLANDS AND AREAS NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL IN SE MA.

THIS AFTERNOON...
DRY SLOT WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH RAINFALL
EXITING THE REGION...BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE WINDY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH EXPECTED AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 40 MPH SE NEW ENG. 925 MB TEMPS 13-15C SO IT WILL
BE A RATHER MILD DAY FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. 70 DEGREES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF WE
COULD GET SOME SUNSHINE BUT THIS DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
* PLOWABLE SNOW STORM LIKELY WEDNESDAY...EXACT TRACK AND LOCATION OF
  RAIN/SNOW LINE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
* COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER STORM LATE IN THE WEEKEND

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER
STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING.  UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THIS STORM...PARTICULARLY THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL AFFECT EVERYTHING FROM AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TO
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS...WHICH WILL IN TURN AFFECT THE TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION.  THE ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW TRACKING ANYWHERE FROM
OVER PENNSYLVANIA TO OUT TO SEA WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.  THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE
TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND /AT THE WESTERN END OF THE
ENVELOPE/ TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK /AT THE EASTERN END OF
THE ENVELOPE.  OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH MORE DISCREPANCIES SEEN WITH
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.  THE GFS IS FORECASTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS IS
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT THOUGH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY EXPECTED THOUGH IT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.  LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
MARITIMES PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A
SOUTHWESTERLY 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH DECENT MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...AS STATED ABOVE...THIS WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST AND IS ALSO THE MOST UNCERTAIN.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MOST LIKELY MOVING ANYWHERE FROM
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70
BENCHMARK.  A TRACK OF THIS SORT IS LIKELY TO BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW
TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
SIX INCHES OF SNOW FALLING ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS.
ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR AND
LIKELY TO AFFECT MANY.

THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND BRINGS
AT LEAST THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.
WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER TO THE EAST...IT TOO BRINGS AT LEAST THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND HAS A COLDER
THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SIX INCHES OF SNOW AT
LEAST OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND LIKELY FARTHER EAST.  THIS IS
DEFINITELY A STORM TO WATCH.

WHILE THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT
THIS POINT...APPEARS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR WEST
OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT QUIET
WEATHER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LESS CERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO AFFECT A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR SW TO NE
08-12Z AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE EXITING 14-16Z WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST. S WIND GUSTS TO
35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS SE NEW ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS
12-16Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO 25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS
LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55 KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. KEPT CIGS ABOVE IFR WITH
GUSTY S WINDS...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS WILL BE OF GREAT
CONCERN IN THE MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WEAKER E/SE FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW WINDS GUST TO 25KTS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THU AM...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW/RAIN.  GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW...INCLUDING HEAVY SNOW...IS
WEST OF WORCESTER THROUGH WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT.

THU PM THROUGH FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST SCA WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS.  NORTHWESTERLY GALES LIKELY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR RIZ002-
     004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240842
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
342 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW-WINDS. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT SPECIFIC
OUTCOMES REMAIN UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
 ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

RAIN BEGINNNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENG AND WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REST OF SNE THROUGH DAYBREAK. POTENT LOW LEVEL JET +4SD WILL
TRANSPORT ANOMALOUS PWATS /+3 TO +4SD/ NORTH INTO THE REGION TO
BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION. ELEVATED THUNDER
INDICES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE NOSE OF LLJ MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SYSTEM IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND NOTE THAT DRY SLOT IS ALREADY
MOVING INTO CENTRAL PA SO DURATION OF STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
SHORT LIKELY LASTING NO MORE THAN 6 HOURS...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF
13-16Z FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.50-1.00 ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
ANOUNTS. JUST THE TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED.

STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ALONG SE NEW ENG COAST...
FAIRLY POTENT LOW LEVEL JET 70-75 KT AT 925 MB WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS SE NEW ENG 12-18Z. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS PRESENT
AT THE TIME THE JET IS MOVING THROUGH SO THIS WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH
OF THIS WIND CAN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
FINE LINE OF CONVECTION. AND THIS IS NOT REALLY AN IDEAL SITUATION
FOR A FINE LINE GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND NO COLD FRONT.
TAKING ABOUNT 50 PERCENT OF THE MAGNITIDE OF THE JET OFTEN IS A
DECENT STARTING POINT FOR ESTIMATING GUST POTENTIAL WITH THESE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JETS WITH INVERSION IN PLACE. THIS SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR G35-40 KT WHICH IS RIGHT NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR THE CURRENT
AREA. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCE OF REALIZING GUSTS TO 45+ MPH WILL BE
OVER CAPE/ISLANDS AND AREAS NEAR THE CAPE CAOD CANAL IN SE MA.

THIS AFTERNOON...
DRY SLOT WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH RAINFALL
EXITING THE REGION...BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE WINDY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH EXPECTED AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 40 MPH SE NEW ENG. 925 MB TEMPS 13-15C SO IT WILL
BE A RATHER MILD DAY FOR LATE NOVEMEBER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. 70 DEGREES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF WE
COULD GET SOME SUNSHINE BUT THIS DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD TUESDAY
- STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TRAVEL IMPACTS
- TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. IN AGREEMENT
WITH WPC: CONTINUED SPREAD OF GUIDANCE UPSTREAM RESULTING IN THE
POOR RESOLVING OF DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS. INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS /
ENSEMBLES STILL UNDECIDED ON THE RELATIVE TRACK / STRENGTH OF DOWN-
STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS
ACROSS THE REGION OF WHICH WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL
ABOUT 2-3 DAYS PRIOR.

NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUE TO WEIGH PREFERENCE UPON THE W-ENVELOPE OF
FORECAST SOLUTIONS. BELIEVE THE 23.6Z / 23.12Z GFS AND THE 23.12Z EC
ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFER THE MOST REASONABLE NE-TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. AGREE WITH WPC
NOTING THERE HAS BEEN A WIDE SPREAD OF EC DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ON
THE W-HALF OF THE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE UKMET...WHILE THE CANADIAN
REMAINS TO THE RIGHT.

EXPECT A MODERATE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL RESULT IN
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON BOTH THE STRENGTH AND THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM. ASIDE...EXPECTING SOME SORT OF RAIN AND / OR SNOW BAND
SOMEWHERE ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL PREFERENCE OF
RAIN OVER COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND SNOWS FOR THE INTERIOR.

THE ONLY CERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM OF
WHICH IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...
INCREASING INTO THE EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM CONCLUDING THURSDAY
MORNING.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY AND MILD. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL BENEATH THE DRY-SLOT REARWARD
OF THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY IN CANADA. AM
EXPECTING BLUSTERY SW-FLOW WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH ALONG THE S-COAST.
WINDS RELAXING INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT FLOW OVERNIGHT COULD MAKE FOR
A GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING SETUP. BUT ANTICIPATING MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE S INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SYNOPTICALLY...SUCCESSIVE PACIFIC-IMPULSES MAINTAIN AN OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH INTO THE GULF. UNDERGOING A NEGATIVE-TILT ACROSS THE E-CONUS
INITIATES AND INTENSIFIES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE N-GULF NE
OVER THE W-ATLANTIC ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET BY
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. NO APPRECIABLE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING SIGNIFIES A
PROGRESSIVE-FLOW PATTERN /+NAO/ RESULTING IN THE ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-
LOW PATTERN ABOVE H7 /LESS EMPHASIS OF A CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WARM
CONVEYER BELT/...WHILE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR REARWARD ACROSS
C-CANADA /+AO/ RESULTING IN THERMAL PROFILES AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK OVER S NEW ENGLAND.

TOWARDS EVENING...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND MODEST
W-COMPONENT OF AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW...AND DRIER AIR N/W INITIALLY...AM
EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL FRONT SETUP.

OVERNIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN AND
LACK OF A CLOSED LOW ABOVE H7...MUCH OF THE EMPHASIS IS WITH THE
ANTI-CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB. NEVERTHELESS A FRONT-END THUMP IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE ASCENT / FORCING PER FRONTOGENESIS NW OF
H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK TROWALING TOWARD
THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG DEEP-LAYER LIFT
THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A SW-NE BAND SIGNATURE
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH WHERE EXACTLY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS IS
THE EXACT TRACK AS WELL AS THE DEPTH / STRENGTH OF THE STORM.

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
JUST BELOW FREEZING UP TO H7 PER THE PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS NOTED
EARLIER...THEN WOULD EXPECT INTERIOR SNOWS /WITH A NEAR 1:10 RATIO/
AND COASTAL RAINS. KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF THE
H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C. THE DIVIDING
LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS. CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE
DOES WEIGH SOME INDICATION PER PROBABILITIES OF > 2 INCHES OF SNOW.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. 23.12Z EC / UKMET CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
WARMER-END OF SOLUTIONS. IF THE 23.12Z GFS / GEFS AND 23.15Z SREF
ARE CORRECT WITH THE TRACK OF THE H85 / SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD /CANADIAN THE FAR E SOLUTION/ THEN
WOULD EXPECT A PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR N/W OF THE I-95/495
CORRIDOR...KEEPING IN MIND THERE IS LIKELY WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN /
SNOW BAND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES THIS FAR OUT IN
THE FORECAST. SO WITH THAT BEING SAID...WILL NOT ISSUE OUT ANY SNOW-
FALL GRAPHICS WITH THIS FORECAST. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO CERTAINTY
AS TO SNOW-OUTCOMES.

CIPS ANALOGS HAVE TONED DOWN ON THE WIND PROBABILITIES. BUT WITH THE
AFOREMENTION MODEL PREFERENCE...WILL NEED TO WATCH THE NE-FLOW OVER
E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH
AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN.

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY. ALL SORTS OF DEPENDENCIES AND INTANGIBLES. ITS A HARD
KNOCK LIFE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR SW TO NE
08-12Z AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE EXITING 14-16Z WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST. S WIND GUSTS TO
35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS SE NEW ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS
12-16Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO 25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS
LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55 KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. KEPT CIGS ABOVE IFR WITH
GUSTY S WINDS...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS WILL BE OF GREAT
CONCERN IN THE MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WEAKER E/SE FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS INITIALLY TUESDAY MORNING. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED. POSSIBLE THREATS OF A PLOWABLE SNOW
OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WITH STRONG NE WINDS OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...MAYBE EVEN +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR ANTICIPATED. STORM
IMPACTS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE
STORM AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

LATER-THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

IMPROVING VFR. BUT MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS ON STORM MORPHOLOGY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
TUESDAY MORNING...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED PASSING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S
OF NANTUCKET. POSSIBLE THREATS OF STRONG NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...INCLUDING ALL ADJACENT AND OUTER WATERS. HEAVY RAIN
LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. STORM IMPACTS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240842
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
342 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW-WINDS. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT SPECIFIC
OUTCOMES REMAIN UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
 ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

RAIN BEGINNNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENG AND WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REST OF SNE THROUGH DAYBREAK. POTENT LOW LEVEL JET +4SD WILL
TRANSPORT ANOMALOUS PWATS /+3 TO +4SD/ NORTH INTO THE REGION TO
BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION. ELEVATED THUNDER
INDICES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE NOSE OF LLJ MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SYSTEM IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND NOTE THAT DRY SLOT IS ALREADY
MOVING INTO CENTRAL PA SO DURATION OF STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
SHORT LIKELY LASTING NO MORE THAN 6 HOURS...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF
13-16Z FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.50-1.00 ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
ANOUNTS. JUST THE TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED.

STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ALONG SE NEW ENG COAST...
FAIRLY POTENT LOW LEVEL JET 70-75 KT AT 925 MB WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS SE NEW ENG 12-18Z. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS PRESENT
AT THE TIME THE JET IS MOVING THROUGH SO THIS WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH
OF THIS WIND CAN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
FINE LINE OF CONVECTION. AND THIS IS NOT REALLY AN IDEAL SITUATION
FOR A FINE LINE GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND NO COLD FRONT.
TAKING ABOUNT 50 PERCENT OF THE MAGNITIDE OF THE JET OFTEN IS A
DECENT STARTING POINT FOR ESTIMATING GUST POTENTIAL WITH THESE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JETS WITH INVERSION IN PLACE. THIS SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR G35-40 KT WHICH IS RIGHT NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR THE CURRENT
AREA. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCE OF REALIZING GUSTS TO 45+ MPH WILL BE
OVER CAPE/ISLANDS AND AREAS NEAR THE CAPE CAOD CANAL IN SE MA.

THIS AFTERNOON...
DRY SLOT WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH RAINFALL
EXITING THE REGION...BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE WINDY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH EXPECTED AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 40 MPH SE NEW ENG. 925 MB TEMPS 13-15C SO IT WILL
BE A RATHER MILD DAY FOR LATE NOVEMEBER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. 70 DEGREES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF WE
COULD GET SOME SUNSHINE BUT THIS DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD TUESDAY
- STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TRAVEL IMPACTS
- TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. IN AGREEMENT
WITH WPC: CONTINUED SPREAD OF GUIDANCE UPSTREAM RESULTING IN THE
POOR RESOLVING OF DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS. INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS /
ENSEMBLES STILL UNDECIDED ON THE RELATIVE TRACK / STRENGTH OF DOWN-
STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS
ACROSS THE REGION OF WHICH WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL
ABOUT 2-3 DAYS PRIOR.

NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUE TO WEIGH PREFERENCE UPON THE W-ENVELOPE OF
FORECAST SOLUTIONS. BELIEVE THE 23.6Z / 23.12Z GFS AND THE 23.12Z EC
ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFER THE MOST REASONABLE NE-TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. AGREE WITH WPC
NOTING THERE HAS BEEN A WIDE SPREAD OF EC DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ON
THE W-HALF OF THE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE UKMET...WHILE THE CANADIAN
REMAINS TO THE RIGHT.

EXPECT A MODERATE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL RESULT IN
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON BOTH THE STRENGTH AND THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM. ASIDE...EXPECTING SOME SORT OF RAIN AND / OR SNOW BAND
SOMEWHERE ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL PREFERENCE OF
RAIN OVER COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND SNOWS FOR THE INTERIOR.

THE ONLY CERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM OF
WHICH IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...
INCREASING INTO THE EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM CONCLUDING THURSDAY
MORNING.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY AND MILD. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL BENEATH THE DRY-SLOT REARWARD
OF THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY IN CANADA. AM
EXPECTING BLUSTERY SW-FLOW WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH ALONG THE S-COAST.
WINDS RELAXING INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT FLOW OVERNIGHT COULD MAKE FOR
A GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING SETUP. BUT ANTICIPATING MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE S INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SYNOPTICALLY...SUCCESSIVE PACIFIC-IMPULSES MAINTAIN AN OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH INTO THE GULF. UNDERGOING A NEGATIVE-TILT ACROSS THE E-CONUS
INITIATES AND INTENSIFIES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE N-GULF NE
OVER THE W-ATLANTIC ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET BY
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. NO APPRECIABLE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING SIGNIFIES A
PROGRESSIVE-FLOW PATTERN /+NAO/ RESULTING IN THE ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-
LOW PATTERN ABOVE H7 /LESS EMPHASIS OF A CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WARM
CONVEYER BELT/...WHILE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR REARWARD ACROSS
C-CANADA /+AO/ RESULTING IN THERMAL PROFILES AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK OVER S NEW ENGLAND.

TOWARDS EVENING...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND MODEST
W-COMPONENT OF AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW...AND DRIER AIR N/W INITIALLY...AM
EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL FRONT SETUP.

OVERNIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN AND
LACK OF A CLOSED LOW ABOVE H7...MUCH OF THE EMPHASIS IS WITH THE
ANTI-CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB. NEVERTHELESS A FRONT-END THUMP IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE ASCENT / FORCING PER FRONTOGENESIS NW OF
H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK TROWALING TOWARD
THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG DEEP-LAYER LIFT
THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A SW-NE BAND SIGNATURE
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH WHERE EXACTLY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS IS
THE EXACT TRACK AS WELL AS THE DEPTH / STRENGTH OF THE STORM.

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
JUST BELOW FREEZING UP TO H7 PER THE PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS NOTED
EARLIER...THEN WOULD EXPECT INTERIOR SNOWS /WITH A NEAR 1:10 RATIO/
AND COASTAL RAINS. KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF THE
H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C. THE DIVIDING
LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS. CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE
DOES WEIGH SOME INDICATION PER PROBABILITIES OF > 2 INCHES OF SNOW.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. 23.12Z EC / UKMET CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
WARMER-END OF SOLUTIONS. IF THE 23.12Z GFS / GEFS AND 23.15Z SREF
ARE CORRECT WITH THE TRACK OF THE H85 / SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD /CANADIAN THE FAR E SOLUTION/ THEN
WOULD EXPECT A PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR N/W OF THE I-95/495
CORRIDOR...KEEPING IN MIND THERE IS LIKELY WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN /
SNOW BAND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES THIS FAR OUT IN
THE FORECAST. SO WITH THAT BEING SAID...WILL NOT ISSUE OUT ANY SNOW-
FALL GRAPHICS WITH THIS FORECAST. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO CERTAINTY
AS TO SNOW-OUTCOMES.

CIPS ANALOGS HAVE TONED DOWN ON THE WIND PROBABILITIES. BUT WITH THE
AFOREMENTION MODEL PREFERENCE...WILL NEED TO WATCH THE NE-FLOW OVER
E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH
AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN.

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY. ALL SORTS OF DEPENDENCIES AND INTANGIBLES. ITS A HARD
KNOCK LIFE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR SW TO NE
08-12Z AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE EXITING 14-16Z WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST. S WIND GUSTS TO
35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS SE NEW ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS
12-16Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO 25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS
LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55 KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. KEPT CIGS ABOVE IFR WITH
GUSTY S WINDS...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS WILL BE OF GREAT
CONCERN IN THE MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WEAKER E/SE FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS INITIALLY TUESDAY MORNING. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED. POSSIBLE THREATS OF A PLOWABLE SNOW
OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WITH STRONG NE WINDS OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...MAYBE EVEN +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR ANTICIPATED. STORM
IMPACTS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE
STORM AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

LATER-THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

IMPROVING VFR. BUT MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS ON STORM MORPHOLOGY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
TUESDAY MORNING...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED PASSING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S
OF NANTUCKET. POSSIBLE THREATS OF STRONG NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...INCLUDING ALL ADJACENT AND OUTER WATERS. HEAVY RAIN
LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. STORM IMPACTS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240842
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
342 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW-WINDS. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT SPECIFIC
OUTCOMES REMAIN UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
 ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

RAIN BEGINNNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENG AND WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REST OF SNE THROUGH DAYBREAK. POTENT LOW LEVEL JET +4SD WILL
TRANSPORT ANOMALOUS PWATS /+3 TO +4SD/ NORTH INTO THE REGION TO
BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION. ELEVATED THUNDER
INDICES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE NOSE OF LLJ MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SYSTEM IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND NOTE THAT DRY SLOT IS ALREADY
MOVING INTO CENTRAL PA SO DURATION OF STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
SHORT LIKELY LASTING NO MORE THAN 6 HOURS...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF
13-16Z FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.50-1.00 ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
ANOUNTS. JUST THE TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED.

STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ALONG SE NEW ENG COAST...
FAIRLY POTENT LOW LEVEL JET 70-75 KT AT 925 MB WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS SE NEW ENG 12-18Z. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS PRESENT
AT THE TIME THE JET IS MOVING THROUGH SO THIS WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH
OF THIS WIND CAN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
FINE LINE OF CONVECTION. AND THIS IS NOT REALLY AN IDEAL SITUATION
FOR A FINE LINE GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND NO COLD FRONT.
TAKING ABOUNT 50 PERCENT OF THE MAGNITIDE OF THE JET OFTEN IS A
DECENT STARTING POINT FOR ESTIMATING GUST POTENTIAL WITH THESE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JETS WITH INVERSION IN PLACE. THIS SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR G35-40 KT WHICH IS RIGHT NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR THE CURRENT
AREA. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCE OF REALIZING GUSTS TO 45+ MPH WILL BE
OVER CAPE/ISLANDS AND AREAS NEAR THE CAPE CAOD CANAL IN SE MA.

THIS AFTERNOON...
DRY SLOT WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH RAINFALL
EXITING THE REGION...BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE WINDY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH EXPECTED AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 40 MPH SE NEW ENG. 925 MB TEMPS 13-15C SO IT WILL
BE A RATHER MILD DAY FOR LATE NOVEMEBER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. 70 DEGREES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF WE
COULD GET SOME SUNSHINE BUT THIS DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD TUESDAY
- STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TRAVEL IMPACTS
- TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. IN AGREEMENT
WITH WPC: CONTINUED SPREAD OF GUIDANCE UPSTREAM RESULTING IN THE
POOR RESOLVING OF DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS. INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS /
ENSEMBLES STILL UNDECIDED ON THE RELATIVE TRACK / STRENGTH OF DOWN-
STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS
ACROSS THE REGION OF WHICH WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL
ABOUT 2-3 DAYS PRIOR.

NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUE TO WEIGH PREFERENCE UPON THE W-ENVELOPE OF
FORECAST SOLUTIONS. BELIEVE THE 23.6Z / 23.12Z GFS AND THE 23.12Z EC
ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFER THE MOST REASONABLE NE-TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. AGREE WITH WPC
NOTING THERE HAS BEEN A WIDE SPREAD OF EC DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ON
THE W-HALF OF THE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE UKMET...WHILE THE CANADIAN
REMAINS TO THE RIGHT.

EXPECT A MODERATE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL RESULT IN
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON BOTH THE STRENGTH AND THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM. ASIDE...EXPECTING SOME SORT OF RAIN AND / OR SNOW BAND
SOMEWHERE ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL PREFERENCE OF
RAIN OVER COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND SNOWS FOR THE INTERIOR.

THE ONLY CERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM OF
WHICH IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...
INCREASING INTO THE EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM CONCLUDING THURSDAY
MORNING.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY AND MILD. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL BENEATH THE DRY-SLOT REARWARD
OF THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY IN CANADA. AM
EXPECTING BLUSTERY SW-FLOW WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH ALONG THE S-COAST.
WINDS RELAXING INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT FLOW OVERNIGHT COULD MAKE FOR
A GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING SETUP. BUT ANTICIPATING MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE S INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SYNOPTICALLY...SUCCESSIVE PACIFIC-IMPULSES MAINTAIN AN OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH INTO THE GULF. UNDERGOING A NEGATIVE-TILT ACROSS THE E-CONUS
INITIATES AND INTENSIFIES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE N-GULF NE
OVER THE W-ATLANTIC ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET BY
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. NO APPRECIABLE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING SIGNIFIES A
PROGRESSIVE-FLOW PATTERN /+NAO/ RESULTING IN THE ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-
LOW PATTERN ABOVE H7 /LESS EMPHASIS OF A CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WARM
CONVEYER BELT/...WHILE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR REARWARD ACROSS
C-CANADA /+AO/ RESULTING IN THERMAL PROFILES AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK OVER S NEW ENGLAND.

TOWARDS EVENING...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND MODEST
W-COMPONENT OF AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW...AND DRIER AIR N/W INITIALLY...AM
EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL FRONT SETUP.

OVERNIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN AND
LACK OF A CLOSED LOW ABOVE H7...MUCH OF THE EMPHASIS IS WITH THE
ANTI-CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB. NEVERTHELESS A FRONT-END THUMP IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE ASCENT / FORCING PER FRONTOGENESIS NW OF
H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK TROWALING TOWARD
THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG DEEP-LAYER LIFT
THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A SW-NE BAND SIGNATURE
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH WHERE EXACTLY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS IS
THE EXACT TRACK AS WELL AS THE DEPTH / STRENGTH OF THE STORM.

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
JUST BELOW FREEZING UP TO H7 PER THE PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS NOTED
EARLIER...THEN WOULD EXPECT INTERIOR SNOWS /WITH A NEAR 1:10 RATIO/
AND COASTAL RAINS. KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF THE
H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C. THE DIVIDING
LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS. CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE
DOES WEIGH SOME INDICATION PER PROBABILITIES OF > 2 INCHES OF SNOW.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. 23.12Z EC / UKMET CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
WARMER-END OF SOLUTIONS. IF THE 23.12Z GFS / GEFS AND 23.15Z SREF
ARE CORRECT WITH THE TRACK OF THE H85 / SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD /CANADIAN THE FAR E SOLUTION/ THEN
WOULD EXPECT A PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR N/W OF THE I-95/495
CORRIDOR...KEEPING IN MIND THERE IS LIKELY WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN /
SNOW BAND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES THIS FAR OUT IN
THE FORECAST. SO WITH THAT BEING SAID...WILL NOT ISSUE OUT ANY SNOW-
FALL GRAPHICS WITH THIS FORECAST. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO CERTAINTY
AS TO SNOW-OUTCOMES.

CIPS ANALOGS HAVE TONED DOWN ON THE WIND PROBABILITIES. BUT WITH THE
AFOREMENTION MODEL PREFERENCE...WILL NEED TO WATCH THE NE-FLOW OVER
E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH
AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN.

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY. ALL SORTS OF DEPENDENCIES AND INTANGIBLES. ITS A HARD
KNOCK LIFE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR SW TO NE
08-12Z AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE EXITING 14-16Z WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST. S WIND GUSTS TO
35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS SE NEW ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS
12-16Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO 25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS
LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55 KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. KEPT CIGS ABOVE IFR WITH
GUSTY S WINDS...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS WILL BE OF GREAT
CONCERN IN THE MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WEAKER E/SE FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS INITIALLY TUESDAY MORNING. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED. POSSIBLE THREATS OF A PLOWABLE SNOW
OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WITH STRONG NE WINDS OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...MAYBE EVEN +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR ANTICIPATED. STORM
IMPACTS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE
STORM AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

LATER-THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

IMPROVING VFR. BUT MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS ON STORM MORPHOLOGY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
TUESDAY MORNING...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED PASSING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S
OF NANTUCKET. POSSIBLE THREATS OF STRONG NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...INCLUDING ALL ADJACENT AND OUTER WATERS. HEAVY RAIN
LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. STORM IMPACTS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240842
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
342 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW-WINDS. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT SPECIFIC
OUTCOMES REMAIN UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
 ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

RAIN BEGINNNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENG AND WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REST OF SNE THROUGH DAYBREAK. POTENT LOW LEVEL JET +4SD WILL
TRANSPORT ANOMALOUS PWATS /+3 TO +4SD/ NORTH INTO THE REGION TO
BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION. ELEVATED THUNDER
INDICES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE NOSE OF LLJ MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SYSTEM IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND NOTE THAT DRY SLOT IS ALREADY
MOVING INTO CENTRAL PA SO DURATION OF STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
SHORT LIKELY LASTING NO MORE THAN 6 HOURS...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF
13-16Z FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.50-1.00 ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
ANOUNTS. JUST THE TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED.

STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ALONG SE NEW ENG COAST...
FAIRLY POTENT LOW LEVEL JET 70-75 KT AT 925 MB WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS SE NEW ENG 12-18Z. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS PRESENT
AT THE TIME THE JET IS MOVING THROUGH SO THIS WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH
OF THIS WIND CAN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
FINE LINE OF CONVECTION. AND THIS IS NOT REALLY AN IDEAL SITUATION
FOR A FINE LINE GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND NO COLD FRONT.
TAKING ABOUNT 50 PERCENT OF THE MAGNITIDE OF THE JET OFTEN IS A
DECENT STARTING POINT FOR ESTIMATING GUST POTENTIAL WITH THESE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JETS WITH INVERSION IN PLACE. THIS SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR G35-40 KT WHICH IS RIGHT NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR THE CURRENT
AREA. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCE OF REALIZING GUSTS TO 45+ MPH WILL BE
OVER CAPE/ISLANDS AND AREAS NEAR THE CAPE CAOD CANAL IN SE MA.

THIS AFTERNOON...
DRY SLOT WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH RAINFALL
EXITING THE REGION...BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE WINDY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH EXPECTED AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 40 MPH SE NEW ENG. 925 MB TEMPS 13-15C SO IT WILL
BE A RATHER MILD DAY FOR LATE NOVEMEBER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. 70 DEGREES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF WE
COULD GET SOME SUNSHINE BUT THIS DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD TUESDAY
- STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TRAVEL IMPACTS
- TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. IN AGREEMENT
WITH WPC: CONTINUED SPREAD OF GUIDANCE UPSTREAM RESULTING IN THE
POOR RESOLVING OF DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS. INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS /
ENSEMBLES STILL UNDECIDED ON THE RELATIVE TRACK / STRENGTH OF DOWN-
STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS
ACROSS THE REGION OF WHICH WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL
ABOUT 2-3 DAYS PRIOR.

NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUE TO WEIGH PREFERENCE UPON THE W-ENVELOPE OF
FORECAST SOLUTIONS. BELIEVE THE 23.6Z / 23.12Z GFS AND THE 23.12Z EC
ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFER THE MOST REASONABLE NE-TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. AGREE WITH WPC
NOTING THERE HAS BEEN A WIDE SPREAD OF EC DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ON
THE W-HALF OF THE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE UKMET...WHILE THE CANADIAN
REMAINS TO THE RIGHT.

EXPECT A MODERATE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL RESULT IN
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON BOTH THE STRENGTH AND THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM. ASIDE...EXPECTING SOME SORT OF RAIN AND / OR SNOW BAND
SOMEWHERE ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL PREFERENCE OF
RAIN OVER COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND SNOWS FOR THE INTERIOR.

THE ONLY CERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM OF
WHICH IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...
INCREASING INTO THE EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM CONCLUDING THURSDAY
MORNING.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY AND MILD. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL BENEATH THE DRY-SLOT REARWARD
OF THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY IN CANADA. AM
EXPECTING BLUSTERY SW-FLOW WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH ALONG THE S-COAST.
WINDS RELAXING INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT FLOW OVERNIGHT COULD MAKE FOR
A GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING SETUP. BUT ANTICIPATING MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE S INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SYNOPTICALLY...SUCCESSIVE PACIFIC-IMPULSES MAINTAIN AN OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH INTO THE GULF. UNDERGOING A NEGATIVE-TILT ACROSS THE E-CONUS
INITIATES AND INTENSIFIES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE N-GULF NE
OVER THE W-ATLANTIC ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET BY
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. NO APPRECIABLE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING SIGNIFIES A
PROGRESSIVE-FLOW PATTERN /+NAO/ RESULTING IN THE ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-
LOW PATTERN ABOVE H7 /LESS EMPHASIS OF A CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WARM
CONVEYER BELT/...WHILE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR REARWARD ACROSS
C-CANADA /+AO/ RESULTING IN THERMAL PROFILES AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK OVER S NEW ENGLAND.

TOWARDS EVENING...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND MODEST
W-COMPONENT OF AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW...AND DRIER AIR N/W INITIALLY...AM
EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL FRONT SETUP.

OVERNIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN AND
LACK OF A CLOSED LOW ABOVE H7...MUCH OF THE EMPHASIS IS WITH THE
ANTI-CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB. NEVERTHELESS A FRONT-END THUMP IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE ASCENT / FORCING PER FRONTOGENESIS NW OF
H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK TROWALING TOWARD
THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG DEEP-LAYER LIFT
THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A SW-NE BAND SIGNATURE
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH WHERE EXACTLY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS IS
THE EXACT TRACK AS WELL AS THE DEPTH / STRENGTH OF THE STORM.

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
JUST BELOW FREEZING UP TO H7 PER THE PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS NOTED
EARLIER...THEN WOULD EXPECT INTERIOR SNOWS /WITH A NEAR 1:10 RATIO/
AND COASTAL RAINS. KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF THE
H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C. THE DIVIDING
LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS. CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE
DOES WEIGH SOME INDICATION PER PROBABILITIES OF > 2 INCHES OF SNOW.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. 23.12Z EC / UKMET CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
WARMER-END OF SOLUTIONS. IF THE 23.12Z GFS / GEFS AND 23.15Z SREF
ARE CORRECT WITH THE TRACK OF THE H85 / SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD /CANADIAN THE FAR E SOLUTION/ THEN
WOULD EXPECT A PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR N/W OF THE I-95/495
CORRIDOR...KEEPING IN MIND THERE IS LIKELY WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN /
SNOW BAND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES THIS FAR OUT IN
THE FORECAST. SO WITH THAT BEING SAID...WILL NOT ISSUE OUT ANY SNOW-
FALL GRAPHICS WITH THIS FORECAST. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO CERTAINTY
AS TO SNOW-OUTCOMES.

CIPS ANALOGS HAVE TONED DOWN ON THE WIND PROBABILITIES. BUT WITH THE
AFOREMENTION MODEL PREFERENCE...WILL NEED TO WATCH THE NE-FLOW OVER
E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH
AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN.

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY. ALL SORTS OF DEPENDENCIES AND INTANGIBLES. ITS A HARD
KNOCK LIFE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR SW TO NE
08-12Z AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE EXITING 14-16Z WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST. S WIND GUSTS TO
35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS SE NEW ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS
12-16Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO 25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS
LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55 KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. KEPT CIGS ABOVE IFR WITH
GUSTY S WINDS...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS WILL BE OF GREAT
CONCERN IN THE MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WEAKER E/SE FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS INITIALLY TUESDAY MORNING. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED. POSSIBLE THREATS OF A PLOWABLE SNOW
OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WITH STRONG NE WINDS OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...MAYBE EVEN +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR ANTICIPATED. STORM
IMPACTS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE
STORM AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

LATER-THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

IMPROVING VFR. BUT MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS ON STORM MORPHOLOGY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
TUESDAY MORNING...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED PASSING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S
OF NANTUCKET. POSSIBLE THREATS OF STRONG NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...INCLUDING ALL ADJACENT AND OUTER WATERS. HEAVY RAIN
LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. STORM IMPACTS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 240830
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
330 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT
NEARS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ARCS
INTO SOUTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND WILL BE LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN NH
AND SOUTHWEST MAINE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A FEW BREAKS IN THE
PRECEDENT CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO DROP TO
FREEZING OR BELOW. THE WAA/CLOUD COVER SHOULD RAISE READINGS A
COUPLE DEGREES AT LEAST AHEAD OF ANY PRECIPITATION... SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY FREEZING RAIN.

EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT RAIN TO TRANSITION TO HEAVIER RAIN AS THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING. VERY STRONG LLJ NOSES ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH
70 KTS JUST OFF THE DECK. WE DON`T MIX MUCH AT ALL TODAY AND ONLY
A SMALL INVERSION WILL BE WHAT KEEPS US FROM REALIZING VERY STRONG
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THAT SAID...WE WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL. STEADY RAIN GIVES
WAY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL DISSIPATE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 40S
AND 50S AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR INITIALLY. A COOL FRONT
DOES MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY
AT THE SURFACE. THIS ALONG WITH DRIER UPPER LEVELS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR WILL HELP CLEAR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TUESDAY...MAKING IT A
WARM AND DRY DAY (IF A LITTLE WINDY). DIURNAL RANGES MAY ONLY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NORTH TO SEVERAL ACROSS THE SOUTH (LOWER
40S TO MID 50S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT ENHANCING
CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY KICKING OFF A FEW FLURRIES. MID LEVEL
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HIGH
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS
FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SNOW TO
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. NEW GFS SLIGHTLY
COLDER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP PRECIP ALL SNOW EVEN IN COASTAL AREAS WHERE
THE HIGHEST TOTALS WOULD BE FOUND. SLIGHTLY COLDER SOLUTION NOTED
IN THE NEW ECMWF BUT WOULD STILL LIKELY SEE SOME MIXING IN
COASTAL ZONES. ECMWF ALSO STICKING WITH QPF AMOUNTS NEARLY DOUBLE
THAT OF THE GFS. SO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY. POTENTIAL
FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS THERE BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON
WATCHES AT THIS POINT FOR ABOVE MENTIONED REASONS.

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES. IF CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS
HOLD WILL LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THE SNOW FALLING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME AREAS SEEING SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WAS TIMING OF HEAVY
RAIN THIS MORNING AND ITS IMPACTS ON CEILINGS. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON TO DRIZZLE BUT LOW STRATUS
WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS NO COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO SCOUR
MOISTURE OUT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY
FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LLWS THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY WHERE A
SCA IS IN EFFECT. WILL NEED SCAS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES ONCE GALE
WARNINGS EXPIRE LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

HANES/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KGYX 240830
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
330 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT
NEARS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ARCS
INTO SOUTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND WILL BE LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN NH
AND SOUTHWEST MAINE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A FEW BREAKS IN THE
PRECEDENT CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO DROP TO
FREEZING OR BELOW. THE WAA/CLOUD COVER SHOULD RAISE READINGS A
COUPLE DEGREES AT LEAST AHEAD OF ANY PRECIPITATION... SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY FREEZING RAIN.

EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT RAIN TO TRANSITION TO HEAVIER RAIN AS THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING. VERY STRONG LLJ NOSES ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH
70 KTS JUST OFF THE DECK. WE DON`T MIX MUCH AT ALL TODAY AND ONLY
A SMALL INVERSION WILL BE WHAT KEEPS US FROM REALIZING VERY STRONG
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THAT SAID...WE WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL. STEADY RAIN GIVES
WAY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL DISSIPATE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 40S
AND 50S AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR INITIALLY. A COOL FRONT
DOES MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY
AT THE SURFACE. THIS ALONG WITH DRIER UPPER LEVELS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR WILL HELP CLEAR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TUESDAY...MAKING IT A
WARM AND DRY DAY (IF A LITTLE WINDY). DIURNAL RANGES MAY ONLY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NORTH TO SEVERAL ACROSS THE SOUTH (LOWER
40S TO MID 50S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT ENHANCING
CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY KICKING OFF A FEW FLURRIES. MID LEVEL
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HIGH
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS
FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SNOW TO
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. NEW GFS SLIGHTLY
COLDER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP PRECIP ALL SNOW EVEN IN COASTAL AREAS WHERE
THE HIGHEST TOTALS WOULD BE FOUND. SLIGHTLY COLDER SOLUTION NOTED
IN THE NEW ECMWF BUT WOULD STILL LIKELY SEE SOME MIXING IN
COASTAL ZONES. ECMWF ALSO STICKING WITH QPF AMOUNTS NEARLY DOUBLE
THAT OF THE GFS. SO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY. POTENTIAL
FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS THERE BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON
WATCHES AT THIS POINT FOR ABOVE MENTIONED REASONS.

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES. IF CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS
HOLD WILL LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THE SNOW FALLING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME AREAS SEEING SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WAS TIMING OF HEAVY
RAIN THIS MORNING AND ITS IMPACTS ON CEILINGS. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON TO DRIZZLE BUT LOW STRATUS
WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS NO COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO SCOUR
MOISTURE OUT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY
FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LLWS THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY WHERE A
SCA IS IN EFFECT. WILL NEED SCAS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES ONCE GALE
WARNINGS EXPIRE LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

HANES/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KGYX 240830
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
330 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT
NEARS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ARCS
INTO SOUTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND WILL BE LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN NH
AND SOUTHWEST MAINE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A FEW BREAKS IN THE
PRECEDENT CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO DROP TO
FREEZING OR BELOW. THE WAA/CLOUD COVER SHOULD RAISE READINGS A
COUPLE DEGREES AT LEAST AHEAD OF ANY PRECIPITATION... SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY FREEZING RAIN.

EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT RAIN TO TRANSITION TO HEAVIER RAIN AS THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING. VERY STRONG LLJ NOSES ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH
70 KTS JUST OFF THE DECK. WE DON`T MIX MUCH AT ALL TODAY AND ONLY
A SMALL INVERSION WILL BE WHAT KEEPS US FROM REALIZING VERY STRONG
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THAT SAID...WE WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL. STEADY RAIN GIVES
WAY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL DISSIPATE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 40S
AND 50S AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR INITIALLY. A COOL FRONT
DOES MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY
AT THE SURFACE. THIS ALONG WITH DRIER UPPER LEVELS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR WILL HELP CLEAR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TUESDAY...MAKING IT A
WARM AND DRY DAY (IF A LITTLE WINDY). DIURNAL RANGES MAY ONLY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NORTH TO SEVERAL ACROSS THE SOUTH (LOWER
40S TO MID 50S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT ENHANCING
CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY KICKING OFF A FEW FLURRIES. MID LEVEL
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HIGH
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS
FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SNOW TO
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. NEW GFS SLIGHTLY
COLDER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP PRECIP ALL SNOW EVEN IN COASTAL AREAS WHERE
THE HIGHEST TOTALS WOULD BE FOUND. SLIGHTLY COLDER SOLUTION NOTED
IN THE NEW ECMWF BUT WOULD STILL LIKELY SEE SOME MIXING IN
COASTAL ZONES. ECMWF ALSO STICKING WITH QPF AMOUNTS NEARLY DOUBLE
THAT OF THE GFS. SO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY. POTENTIAL
FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS THERE BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON
WATCHES AT THIS POINT FOR ABOVE MENTIONED REASONS.

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES. IF CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS
HOLD WILL LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THE SNOW FALLING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME AREAS SEEING SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WAS TIMING OF HEAVY
RAIN THIS MORNING AND ITS IMPACTS ON CEILINGS. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON TO DRIZZLE BUT LOW STRATUS
WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS NO COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO SCOUR
MOISTURE OUT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY
FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LLWS THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY WHERE A
SCA IS IN EFFECT. WILL NEED SCAS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES ONCE GALE
WARNINGS EXPIRE LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

HANES/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KGYX 240830
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
330 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT
NEARS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ARCS
INTO SOUTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND WILL BE LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN NH
AND SOUTHWEST MAINE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A FEW BREAKS IN THE
PRECEDENT CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO DROP TO
FREEZING OR BELOW. THE WAA/CLOUD COVER SHOULD RAISE READINGS A
COUPLE DEGREES AT LEAST AHEAD OF ANY PRECIPITATION... SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY FREEZING RAIN.

EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT RAIN TO TRANSITION TO HEAVIER RAIN AS THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING. VERY STRONG LLJ NOSES ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH
70 KTS JUST OFF THE DECK. WE DON`T MIX MUCH AT ALL TODAY AND ONLY
A SMALL INVERSION WILL BE WHAT KEEPS US FROM REALIZING VERY STRONG
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THAT SAID...WE WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL. STEADY RAIN GIVES
WAY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL DISSIPATE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 40S
AND 50S AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR INITIALLY. A COOL FRONT
DOES MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY
AT THE SURFACE. THIS ALONG WITH DRIER UPPER LEVELS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR WILL HELP CLEAR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TUESDAY...MAKING IT A
WARM AND DRY DAY (IF A LITTLE WINDY). DIURNAL RANGES MAY ONLY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NORTH TO SEVERAL ACROSS THE SOUTH (LOWER
40S TO MID 50S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT ENHANCING
CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY KICKING OFF A FEW FLURRIES. MID LEVEL
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HIGH
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS
FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SNOW TO
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. NEW GFS SLIGHTLY
COLDER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP PRECIP ALL SNOW EVEN IN COASTAL AREAS WHERE
THE HIGHEST TOTALS WOULD BE FOUND. SLIGHTLY COLDER SOLUTION NOTED
IN THE NEW ECMWF BUT WOULD STILL LIKELY SEE SOME MIXING IN
COASTAL ZONES. ECMWF ALSO STICKING WITH QPF AMOUNTS NEARLY DOUBLE
THAT OF THE GFS. SO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY. POTENTIAL
FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS THERE BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON
WATCHES AT THIS POINT FOR ABOVE MENTIONED REASONS.

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES. IF CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS
HOLD WILL LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THE SNOW FALLING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME AREAS SEEING SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WAS TIMING OF HEAVY
RAIN THIS MORNING AND ITS IMPACTS ON CEILINGS. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON TO DRIZZLE BUT LOW STRATUS
WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS NO COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO SCOUR
MOISTURE OUT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY
FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LLWS THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY WHERE A
SCA IS IN EFFECT. WILL NEED SCAS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES ONCE GALE
WARNINGS EXPIRE LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

HANES/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240602
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
102 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON.  QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW-WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET SPECIFIC OUTCOMES REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1255 AM UPDATE...
LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS E PA AND NJ WILL BE MOVING INTO CT
AND W MA BY 08Z THEN REACHING E MA 10-12Z. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS FOR ONSET OF RAIN...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK. AREAS OF
FOG ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AS LOW LEVEL
APPROACHES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
  ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...

1) BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING...BUT THE WEATHER WILL
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WORKING UP TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
INDUCE A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WILL TRANSPORT DEEP
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AS PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 3 AND 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THAT COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING SHOULD
YIELD A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN. THUNDER INDICES ARE MARGINAL
BUT ENOUGH FORCING COULD GENERATE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. FORTUNATELY THE SYSTEM
IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO EXPECT THE STEADY/HEAVY RAIN TO BE OVER
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF
0.50 TO 1 INCHES IN MOST LOCALES...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GENERATE ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...OTHER THAN TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
STREET FLOODING WHICH WILL UNFORTUNATELY COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY
AM RUSH HOUR.

2) STRONG WIND GUSTS POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY
MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE INVERSION...ITS ALWAYS TRICKY TO SEE
HOW MUCH WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT DOWN TO THE GROUND. LOW
LEVEL JET AT 850 MB IS AROUND 80 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND COAST BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. TAKING HALF OF THAT OFTEN CAN
GET YOU IN THE BALL PARK OF WHAT WILL BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THEREFORE...HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND FAR SOUTHEAST MA MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
MPH. IF WE CAN GET A FINE LINE GOING...CONFIDENCE WOULD INCREASE
MORE IN BEING ABLE TO BRING THE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE GROUND.
NONETHELESS...STILL THOUGHT IT WAS WORTH THE ADVISORY.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE STRONG MID LEVEL LIFT/MOISTURE WILL HAVE LIFTED TO OUR NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE STEADY AND HEAVY RAIN WILL
HAVE COME TO AN END. WE WILL STILL HAVE A LOT OF LOW LEVEL
LIFT/MOISTURE AROUND FOR A FEW PASSING SHOWERS SO MAINTAINED SOME
POPS. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY MILD DAY IN STORE FOR THE
REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF +10 TO +12C. DESPITE A
LOT OF CLOUDS...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO SURGE
WELL INTO THE 60S. NOT SURE IF WE WILL SEE MUCH SUN GIVEN SO MUCH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT IF WE END UP WITH MORE THAN EXPECTED SOME
LOCATIONS COULD REACH OR EXCEED 70. REGARDLESS...WILL ACTUALLY
FEEL A BIT MUGGY FOR LATE NOVEMBER STANDARDS...WITH DEWPOINTS
CLOSE TO 60! ALSO...THERE IS A LOT OF WIND JUST OFF THE DECK INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH DEVELOP EVEN
IN THE INTERIOR...DEPENDING ON IF WE CAN MUSTER ANY PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT...

STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL NOT ALLOW WINDS TO DECOUPLE.

THIS COMBINED WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT
IN AN UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE
50S IN MOST LOCATIONS! MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT A FEW
SPOT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD TUESDAY
- STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TRAVEL IMPACTS
- TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. IN AGREEMENT
WITH WPC: CONTINUED SPREAD OF GUIDANCE UPSTREAM RESULTING IN THE
POOR RESOLVING OF DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS. INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS /
ENSEMBLES STILL UNDECIDED ON THE RELATIVE TRACK / STRENGTH OF DOWN-
STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS
ACROSS THE REGION OF WHICH WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL
ABOUT 2-3 DAYS PRIOR.

NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUE TO WEIGH PREFERENCE UPON THE W-ENVELOPE OF
FORECAST SOLUTIONS. BELIEVE THE 23.6Z / 23.12Z GFS AND THE 23.12Z EC
ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFER THE MOST REASONABLE NE-TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. AGREE WITH WPC
NOTING THERE HAS BEEN A WIDE SPREAD OF EC DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ON
THE W-HALF OF THE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE UKMET...WHILE THE CANADIAN
REMAINS TO THE RIGHT.

EXPECT A MODERATE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL RESULT IN
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON BOTH THE STRENGTH AND THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM. ASIDE...EXPECTING SOME SORT OF RAIN AND / OR SNOW BAND
SOMEWHERE ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL PREFERENCE OF
RAIN OVER COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND SNOWS FOR THE INTERIOR.

THE ONLY CERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM OF
WHICH IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...
INCREASING INTO THE EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM CONCLUDING THURSDAY
MORNING.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY AND MILD. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL BENEATH THE DRY-SLOT REARWARD
OF THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY IN CANADA. AM
EXPECTING BLUSTERY SW-FLOW WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH ALONG THE S-COAST.
WINDS RELAXING INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT FLOW OVERNIGHT COULD MAKE FOR
A GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING SETUP. BUT ANTICIPATING MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE S INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SYNOPTICALLY...SUCCESSIVE PACIFIC-IMPULSES MAINTAIN AN OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH INTO THE GULF. UNDERGOING A NEGATIVE-TILT ACROSS THE E-CONUS
INITIATES AND INTENSIFIES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE N-GULF NE
OVER THE W-ATLANTIC ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET BY
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. NO APPRECIABLE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING SIGNIFIES A
PROGRESSIVE-FLOW PATTERN /+NAO/ RESULTING IN THE ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-
LOW PATTERN ABOVE H7 /LESS EMPHASIS OF A CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WARM
CONVEYER BELT/...WHILE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR REARWARD ACROSS
C-CANADA /+AO/ RESULTING IN THERMAL PROFILES AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK OVER S NEW ENGLAND.

TOWARDS EVENING...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND MODEST
W-COMPONENT OF AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW...AND DRIER AIR N/W INITIALLY...AM
EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL FRONT SETUP.

OVERNIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN AND
LACK OF A CLOSED LOW ABOVE H7...MUCH OF THE EMPHASIS IS WITH THE
ANTI-CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB. NEVERTHELESS A FRONT-END THUMP IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE ASCENT / FORCING PER FRONTOGENESIS NW OF
H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK TROWALING TOWARD
THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG DEEP-LAYER LIFT
THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A SW-NE BAND SIGNATURE
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH WHERE EXACTLY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS IS
THE EXACT TRACK AS WELL AS THE DEPTH / STRENGTH OF THE STORM.

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
JUST BELOW FREEZING UP TO H7 PER THE PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS NOTED
EARLIER...THEN WOULD EXPECT INTERIOR SNOWS /WITH A NEAR 1:10 RATIO/
AND COASTAL RAINS. KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF THE
H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C. THE DIVIDING
LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS. CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE
DOES WEIGH SOME INDICATION PER PROBABILITIES OF > 2 INCHES OF SNOW.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. 23.12Z EC / UKMET CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
WARMER-END OF SOLUTIONS. IF THE 23.12Z GFS / GEFS AND 23.15Z SREF
ARE CORRECT WITH THE TRACK OF THE H85 / SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD /CANADIAN THE FAR E SOLUTION/ THEN
WOULD EXPECT A PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR N/W OF THE I-95/495
CORRIDOR...KEEPING IN MIND THERE IS LIKELY WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN /
SNOW BAND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES THIS FAR OUT IN
THE FORECAST. SO WITH THAT BEING SAID...WILL NOT ISSUE OUT ANY SNOW-
FALL GRAPHICS WITH THIS FORECAST. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO CERTAINTY
AS TO SNOW-OUTCOMES.

CIPS ANALOGS HAVE TONED DOWN ON THE WIND PROBABILITIES. BUT WITH THE
AFOREMENTION MODEL PREFERENCE...WILL NEED TO WATCH THE NE-FLOW OVER
E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH
AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN.

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY. ALL SORTS OF DEPENDENCIES AND INTANGIBLES. ITS A HARD
KNOCK LIFE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR SW TO NE
08-12Z AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE EXITING 14-16Z WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST. S WIND GUSTS TO
35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS SE NEW ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS
12-16Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO 25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS
LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55 KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. KEPT CIGS ABOVE IFR WITH
GUSTY S WINDS...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS WILL BE OF GREAT
CONCERN IN THE MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WEAKER E/SE FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS INITIALLY TUESDAY MORNING. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED. POSSIBLE THREATS OF A PLOWABLE SNOW
OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WITH STRONG NE WINDS OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...MAYBE EVEN +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR ANTICIPATED. STORM
IMPACTS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE
STORM AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

LATER-THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

IMPROVING VFR. BUT MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS ON STORM MORPHOLOGY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

7 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

DEEPENING LOW LIFTING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WILL INDUCE STRONG
WINDS ALOFT MONDAY MORNING. WHILE POTENTIAL MIXING TO THE SURFACE
WILL BE LIMITED...STILL THINK THERE IS A DECENT SHOT OF SOUTHERLY
35-40 KT GUSTS. SUCH GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS MAY CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY EVENING OUT OF THE SW.

GALE WARNINGS HOISTED FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR. SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
TUESDAY MORNING...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED PASSING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S
OF NANTUCKET. POSSIBLE THREATS OF STRONG NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...INCLUDING ALL ADJACENT AND OUTER WATERS. HEAVY RAIN
LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. STORM IMPACTS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE MON MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1-2 FT IS
LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
MINOR FLOOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240602
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
102 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON.  QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW-WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET SPECIFIC OUTCOMES REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1255 AM UPDATE...
LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS E PA AND NJ WILL BE MOVING INTO CT
AND W MA BY 08Z THEN REACHING E MA 10-12Z. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS FOR ONSET OF RAIN...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK. AREAS OF
FOG ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AS LOW LEVEL
APPROACHES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
  ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...

1) BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING...BUT THE WEATHER WILL
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WORKING UP TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
INDUCE A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WILL TRANSPORT DEEP
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AS PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 3 AND 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THAT COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING SHOULD
YIELD A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN. THUNDER INDICES ARE MARGINAL
BUT ENOUGH FORCING COULD GENERATE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. FORTUNATELY THE SYSTEM
IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO EXPECT THE STEADY/HEAVY RAIN TO BE OVER
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF
0.50 TO 1 INCHES IN MOST LOCALES...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GENERATE ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...OTHER THAN TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
STREET FLOODING WHICH WILL UNFORTUNATELY COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY
AM RUSH HOUR.

2) STRONG WIND GUSTS POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY
MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE INVERSION...ITS ALWAYS TRICKY TO SEE
HOW MUCH WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT DOWN TO THE GROUND. LOW
LEVEL JET AT 850 MB IS AROUND 80 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND COAST BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. TAKING HALF OF THAT OFTEN CAN
GET YOU IN THE BALL PARK OF WHAT WILL BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THEREFORE...HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND FAR SOUTHEAST MA MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
MPH. IF WE CAN GET A FINE LINE GOING...CONFIDENCE WOULD INCREASE
MORE IN BEING ABLE TO BRING THE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE GROUND.
NONETHELESS...STILL THOUGHT IT WAS WORTH THE ADVISORY.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE STRONG MID LEVEL LIFT/MOISTURE WILL HAVE LIFTED TO OUR NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE STEADY AND HEAVY RAIN WILL
HAVE COME TO AN END. WE WILL STILL HAVE A LOT OF LOW LEVEL
LIFT/MOISTURE AROUND FOR A FEW PASSING SHOWERS SO MAINTAINED SOME
POPS. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY MILD DAY IN STORE FOR THE
REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF +10 TO +12C. DESPITE A
LOT OF CLOUDS...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO SURGE
WELL INTO THE 60S. NOT SURE IF WE WILL SEE MUCH SUN GIVEN SO MUCH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT IF WE END UP WITH MORE THAN EXPECTED SOME
LOCATIONS COULD REACH OR EXCEED 70. REGARDLESS...WILL ACTUALLY
FEEL A BIT MUGGY FOR LATE NOVEMBER STANDARDS...WITH DEWPOINTS
CLOSE TO 60! ALSO...THERE IS A LOT OF WIND JUST OFF THE DECK INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH DEVELOP EVEN
IN THE INTERIOR...DEPENDING ON IF WE CAN MUSTER ANY PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT...

STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL NOT ALLOW WINDS TO DECOUPLE.

THIS COMBINED WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT
IN AN UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE
50S IN MOST LOCATIONS! MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT A FEW
SPOT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD TUESDAY
- STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TRAVEL IMPACTS
- TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. IN AGREEMENT
WITH WPC: CONTINUED SPREAD OF GUIDANCE UPSTREAM RESULTING IN THE
POOR RESOLVING OF DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS. INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS /
ENSEMBLES STILL UNDECIDED ON THE RELATIVE TRACK / STRENGTH OF DOWN-
STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS
ACROSS THE REGION OF WHICH WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL
ABOUT 2-3 DAYS PRIOR.

NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUE TO WEIGH PREFERENCE UPON THE W-ENVELOPE OF
FORECAST SOLUTIONS. BELIEVE THE 23.6Z / 23.12Z GFS AND THE 23.12Z EC
ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFER THE MOST REASONABLE NE-TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. AGREE WITH WPC
NOTING THERE HAS BEEN A WIDE SPREAD OF EC DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ON
THE W-HALF OF THE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE UKMET...WHILE THE CANADIAN
REMAINS TO THE RIGHT.

EXPECT A MODERATE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL RESULT IN
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON BOTH THE STRENGTH AND THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM. ASIDE...EXPECTING SOME SORT OF RAIN AND / OR SNOW BAND
SOMEWHERE ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL PREFERENCE OF
RAIN OVER COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND SNOWS FOR THE INTERIOR.

THE ONLY CERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM OF
WHICH IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...
INCREASING INTO THE EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM CONCLUDING THURSDAY
MORNING.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY AND MILD. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL BENEATH THE DRY-SLOT REARWARD
OF THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY IN CANADA. AM
EXPECTING BLUSTERY SW-FLOW WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH ALONG THE S-COAST.
WINDS RELAXING INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT FLOW OVERNIGHT COULD MAKE FOR
A GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING SETUP. BUT ANTICIPATING MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE S INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SYNOPTICALLY...SUCCESSIVE PACIFIC-IMPULSES MAINTAIN AN OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH INTO THE GULF. UNDERGOING A NEGATIVE-TILT ACROSS THE E-CONUS
INITIATES AND INTENSIFIES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE N-GULF NE
OVER THE W-ATLANTIC ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET BY
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. NO APPRECIABLE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING SIGNIFIES A
PROGRESSIVE-FLOW PATTERN /+NAO/ RESULTING IN THE ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-
LOW PATTERN ABOVE H7 /LESS EMPHASIS OF A CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WARM
CONVEYER BELT/...WHILE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR REARWARD ACROSS
C-CANADA /+AO/ RESULTING IN THERMAL PROFILES AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK OVER S NEW ENGLAND.

TOWARDS EVENING...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND MODEST
W-COMPONENT OF AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW...AND DRIER AIR N/W INITIALLY...AM
EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL FRONT SETUP.

OVERNIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN AND
LACK OF A CLOSED LOW ABOVE H7...MUCH OF THE EMPHASIS IS WITH THE
ANTI-CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB. NEVERTHELESS A FRONT-END THUMP IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE ASCENT / FORCING PER FRONTOGENESIS NW OF
H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK TROWALING TOWARD
THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG DEEP-LAYER LIFT
THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A SW-NE BAND SIGNATURE
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH WHERE EXACTLY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS IS
THE EXACT TRACK AS WELL AS THE DEPTH / STRENGTH OF THE STORM.

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
JUST BELOW FREEZING UP TO H7 PER THE PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS NOTED
EARLIER...THEN WOULD EXPECT INTERIOR SNOWS /WITH A NEAR 1:10 RATIO/
AND COASTAL RAINS. KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF THE
H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C. THE DIVIDING
LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS. CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE
DOES WEIGH SOME INDICATION PER PROBABILITIES OF > 2 INCHES OF SNOW.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. 23.12Z EC / UKMET CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
WARMER-END OF SOLUTIONS. IF THE 23.12Z GFS / GEFS AND 23.15Z SREF
ARE CORRECT WITH THE TRACK OF THE H85 / SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD /CANADIAN THE FAR E SOLUTION/ THEN
WOULD EXPECT A PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR N/W OF THE I-95/495
CORRIDOR...KEEPING IN MIND THERE IS LIKELY WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN /
SNOW BAND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES THIS FAR OUT IN
THE FORECAST. SO WITH THAT BEING SAID...WILL NOT ISSUE OUT ANY SNOW-
FALL GRAPHICS WITH THIS FORECAST. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO CERTAINTY
AS TO SNOW-OUTCOMES.

CIPS ANALOGS HAVE TONED DOWN ON THE WIND PROBABILITIES. BUT WITH THE
AFOREMENTION MODEL PREFERENCE...WILL NEED TO WATCH THE NE-FLOW OVER
E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH
AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN.

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY. ALL SORTS OF DEPENDENCIES AND INTANGIBLES. ITS A HARD
KNOCK LIFE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR SW TO NE
08-12Z AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE EXITING 14-16Z WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST. S WIND GUSTS TO
35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS SE NEW ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS
12-16Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO 25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS
LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55 KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. KEPT CIGS ABOVE IFR WITH
GUSTY S WINDS...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS WILL BE OF GREAT
CONCERN IN THE MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WEAKER E/SE FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS INITIALLY TUESDAY MORNING. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED. POSSIBLE THREATS OF A PLOWABLE SNOW
OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WITH STRONG NE WINDS OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...MAYBE EVEN +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR ANTICIPATED. STORM
IMPACTS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE
STORM AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

LATER-THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

IMPROVING VFR. BUT MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS ON STORM MORPHOLOGY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

7 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

DEEPENING LOW LIFTING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WILL INDUCE STRONG
WINDS ALOFT MONDAY MORNING. WHILE POTENTIAL MIXING TO THE SURFACE
WILL BE LIMITED...STILL THINK THERE IS A DECENT SHOT OF SOUTHERLY
35-40 KT GUSTS. SUCH GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS MAY CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY EVENING OUT OF THE SW.

GALE WARNINGS HOISTED FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR. SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
TUESDAY MORNING...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED PASSING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S
OF NANTUCKET. POSSIBLE THREATS OF STRONG NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...INCLUDING ALL ADJACENT AND OUTER WATERS. HEAVY RAIN
LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. STORM IMPACTS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE MON MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1-2 FT IS
LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
MINOR FLOOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 240218
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
918 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
9 PM UPDATE...NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A BIT BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...JUST TWEAKED TIMING OF RAIN ARRIVAL A LITTLE
BIT...BASICALLY AN HOUR OR TWO LATER. THE RAIN SHIELD SHOULD GET
INTO THE CONCORD NH AREA AROUND 4 AM GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR...THEN
ADVANCE NORTHEAST FROM THERE AND GETTING INTO PORTLAND BY 5 OR 6
AM.

630 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 3 AM OR SO.

PREVIOUSLY...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS WENT WELL INTO 50S
TODAY, AND TDS CLIMBED TO AROUND 40 IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP THE MINS IN THESE AREAS WELL ABV FREEZING
OVERNIGHT AS WAA RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
THE THE N AND W MANY AREAS ARE INTO THE 40S WITH TDS IN THE UPPER
30S...SO MOST PLACES IN THIS AREA WILL START AS RAIN ALSO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
RADIATE...THEY COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
THE START...GENERALLY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MINS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AROUND 06Z AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS LIKELY TO BEGIN
TO RISE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS AS WARMER TEMPS MIX DOWN. A STEADY
RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND END FROM SW TO
NE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN ERN ZONES...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SOME SCT SHRA. QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A
THIRD TO A HALF INCH. ONCE THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE
AREAS...EXPECTING WARM SECTOR TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF SUN. EVEN WITHOUT
THE SUN...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE SRN
ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST. NERN ZONES WILL STAY COOLER WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO AROUND 50.

500 MB LOW WELL TO OUR NW SLOWS ANDS DEEPENS LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT...AND SFC FRONT AND FLOW ALOFT ALIGN...AND SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST OUT NW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT AS SW FLOW
CONTINUES THRU THE NIGHT. MINS WILL ONLY DROP OFF TO NEAR 50 ON
THE COAST...AND INTO THE 40S INLAND. WILL SEE SCT
SHRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN NRN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
***COASTAL STORM LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO BUSY
 HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD***

COLD FNT CROSSES THE AREA TUE...WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL THEN STALL OFF THE COAST AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR COASTAL
STORM LATER WED INTO THU.

FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS ENTERING THE DAY 3 TO 4 TIME PERIOD...THERE
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST. WWD SHIFT CONTINUED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE TODAY...AT LEAST
ALLOWING FOR A GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL FALL ACROSS NH
AND WRN ME WED INTO THU. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS
RANGE FROM A COASTAL SCRAPER WITH LIGHT SNWFL NEAR THE COAST...THE
CMC...TO A STRONG LOW PRES CUTTING THRU THE HEART OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND BRINGING MIXING WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...THE ECMWF.

THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE N PACIFIC...WHERE A
TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA S OF AK. THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE
DOWNSTREAM WRN N AMERICA RIDGE. MONITORING THE HEIGHT FIELDS IN
THESE AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
NARROWING DOWN THE FORECAST. HIGHER THAN MODELED HEIGHTS OUT W
COULD LEND SUPPORT TOWARDS THE FARTHER W LOW PRES TRACK ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

ATTM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FEATURES SOME PCPN ALONG THE COAST...SO
HAVE INCREASED POP FURTHER. NOW THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN
PTYPE. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK PLENTY COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY FOR SNWFL FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. AND IF THE ECMWF WERE CORRECT...COULD COME DOWN
QUITE HEAVILY FOR A TIME...BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT FLOODS NWD AND
CHANGES PCPN TO A MIX...RAIN...OR DRY SLOTS ALTOGETHER. GIVEN THAT
IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...A BLEND REMAINS THE BEST FORECAST
OPTION...THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFS PROVIDES A NICE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTION BETWEEN THE CMC AND ECMWF. TIMING DIFFERENCE ARE
MINIMAL...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT PCPN WILL BE MOVING IN QUICKLY
WED EVE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TRAVEL DISRUPTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ESPECIALLY WITH A HIGH VOLUME OF
PEOPLE ON THE ROADS AND AT AIRPORTS.

SECONDARY COLD FNT THEN HIGH PRES FOLLOW FOR FRI...WITH COLDER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING. RAIN MOVES IN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER FROM THE  PRE-DAWN
THRU ABOUT MIDDAY MON. VFR RETURNS DURING MON AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TUE. VFR
CONDITIONS WED GIVE WAY QUICKLY WED EVENING TO IFR OR LOWER AS
SNWFL MOVES NWD UP THE COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE AFTER WED
EVE...AS WARM AIR ALOFT MAY TURN TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN AT THE
COAST. A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS GROWING MORE LIKELY
WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA...BUT HAVE HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY FOR MON INTO MON EVENING AS SW FLOW
INCREASES AND PERSISTS AND PUSHES SEAS TO THE 7-10 FT RANGE.


LONG TERM...GALES ARE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU AS COASTAL STORM
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 240218
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
918 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
9 PM UPDATE...NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A BIT BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...JUST TWEAKED TIMING OF RAIN ARRIVAL A LITTLE
BIT...BASICALLY AN HOUR OR TWO LATER. THE RAIN SHIELD SHOULD GET
INTO THE CONCORD NH AREA AROUND 4 AM GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR...THEN
ADVANCE NORTHEAST FROM THERE AND GETTING INTO PORTLAND BY 5 OR 6
AM.

630 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 3 AM OR SO.

PREVIOUSLY...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS WENT WELL INTO 50S
TODAY, AND TDS CLIMBED TO AROUND 40 IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP THE MINS IN THESE AREAS WELL ABV FREEZING
OVERNIGHT AS WAA RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
THE THE N AND W MANY AREAS ARE INTO THE 40S WITH TDS IN THE UPPER
30S...SO MOST PLACES IN THIS AREA WILL START AS RAIN ALSO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
RADIATE...THEY COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
THE START...GENERALLY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MINS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AROUND 06Z AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS LIKELY TO BEGIN
TO RISE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS AS WARMER TEMPS MIX DOWN. A STEADY
RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND END FROM SW TO
NE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN ERN ZONES...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SOME SCT SHRA. QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A
THIRD TO A HALF INCH. ONCE THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE
AREAS...EXPECTING WARM SECTOR TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF SUN. EVEN WITHOUT
THE SUN...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE SRN
ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST. NERN ZONES WILL STAY COOLER WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO AROUND 50.

500 MB LOW WELL TO OUR NW SLOWS ANDS DEEPENS LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT...AND SFC FRONT AND FLOW ALOFT ALIGN...AND SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST OUT NW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT AS SW FLOW
CONTINUES THRU THE NIGHT. MINS WILL ONLY DROP OFF TO NEAR 50 ON
THE COAST...AND INTO THE 40S INLAND. WILL SEE SCT
SHRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN NRN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
***COASTAL STORM LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO BUSY
 HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD***

COLD FNT CROSSES THE AREA TUE...WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL THEN STALL OFF THE COAST AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR COASTAL
STORM LATER WED INTO THU.

FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS ENTERING THE DAY 3 TO 4 TIME PERIOD...THERE
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST. WWD SHIFT CONTINUED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE TODAY...AT LEAST
ALLOWING FOR A GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL FALL ACROSS NH
AND WRN ME WED INTO THU. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS
RANGE FROM A COASTAL SCRAPER WITH LIGHT SNWFL NEAR THE COAST...THE
CMC...TO A STRONG LOW PRES CUTTING THRU THE HEART OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND BRINGING MIXING WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...THE ECMWF.

THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE N PACIFIC...WHERE A
TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA S OF AK. THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE
DOWNSTREAM WRN N AMERICA RIDGE. MONITORING THE HEIGHT FIELDS IN
THESE AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
NARROWING DOWN THE FORECAST. HIGHER THAN MODELED HEIGHTS OUT W
COULD LEND SUPPORT TOWARDS THE FARTHER W LOW PRES TRACK ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

ATTM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FEATURES SOME PCPN ALONG THE COAST...SO
HAVE INCREASED POP FURTHER. NOW THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN
PTYPE. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK PLENTY COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY FOR SNWFL FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. AND IF THE ECMWF WERE CORRECT...COULD COME DOWN
QUITE HEAVILY FOR A TIME...BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT FLOODS NWD AND
CHANGES PCPN TO A MIX...RAIN...OR DRY SLOTS ALTOGETHER. GIVEN THAT
IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...A BLEND REMAINS THE BEST FORECAST
OPTION...THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFS PROVIDES A NICE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTION BETWEEN THE CMC AND ECMWF. TIMING DIFFERENCE ARE
MINIMAL...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT PCPN WILL BE MOVING IN QUICKLY
WED EVE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TRAVEL DISRUPTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ESPECIALLY WITH A HIGH VOLUME OF
PEOPLE ON THE ROADS AND AT AIRPORTS.

SECONDARY COLD FNT THEN HIGH PRES FOLLOW FOR FRI...WITH COLDER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING. RAIN MOVES IN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER FROM THE  PRE-DAWN
THRU ABOUT MIDDAY MON. VFR RETURNS DURING MON AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TUE. VFR
CONDITIONS WED GIVE WAY QUICKLY WED EVENING TO IFR OR LOWER AS
SNWFL MOVES NWD UP THE COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE AFTER WED
EVE...AS WARM AIR ALOFT MAY TURN TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN AT THE
COAST. A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS GROWING MORE LIKELY
WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA...BUT HAVE HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY FOR MON INTO MON EVENING AS SW FLOW
INCREASES AND PERSISTS AND PUSHES SEAS TO THE 7-10 FT RANGE.


LONG TERM...GALES ARE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU AS COASTAL STORM
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE




000
FXUS61 KBOX 232358
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
658 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON.  QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW-WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET SPECIFIC OUTCOMES REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

7 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
  ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...

1) BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING...BUT THE WEATHER WILL
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WORKING UP TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
INDUCE A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WILL TRANSPORT DEEP
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AS PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 3 AND 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THAT COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING SHOULD
YIELD A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN. THUNDER INDICES ARE MARGINAL
BUT ENOUGH FORCING COULD GENERATE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. FORTUNATELY THE SYSTEM
IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO EXPECT THE STEADY/HEAVY RAIN TO BE OVER
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF
0.50 TO 1 INCHES IN MOST LOCALES...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GENERATE ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...OTHER THAN TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
STREET FLOODING WHICH WILL UNFORTUNATELY COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY
AM RUSH HOUR.

2) STRONG WIND GUSTS POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY
MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE INVERSION...ITS ALWAYS TRICKY TO SEE
HOW MUCH WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT DOWN TO THE GROUND. LOW
LEVEL JET AT 850 MB IS AROUND 80 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND COAST BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. TAKING HALF OF THAT OFTEN CAN
GET YOU IN THE BALL PARK OF WHAT WILL BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THEREFORE...HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND FAR SOUTHEAST MA MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
MPH. IF WE CAN GET A FINE LINE GOING...CONFIDENCE WOULD INCREASE
MORE IN BEING ABLE TO BRING THE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE GROUND.
NONETHELESS...STILL THOUGHT IT WAS WORTH THE ADVISORY.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE STRONG MID LEVEL LIFT/MOISTURE WILL HAVE LIFTED TO OUR NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE STEADY AND HEAVY RAIN WILL
HAVE COME TO AN END. WE WILL STILL HAVE A LOT OF LOW LEVEL
LIFT/MOISTURE AROUND FOR A FEW PASSING SHOWERS SO MAINTAINED SOME
POPS. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY MILD DAY IN STORE FOR THE
REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF +10 TO +12C. DESPITE A
LOT OF CLOUDS...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO SURGE
WELL INTO THE 60S. NOT SURE IF WE WILL SEE MUCH SUN GIVEN SO MUCH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT IF WE END UP WITH MORE THAN EXPECTED SOME
LOCATIONS COULD REACH OR EXCEED 70. REGARDLESS...WILL ACTUALLY
FEEL A BIT MUGGY FOR LATE NOVEMBER STANDARDS...WITH DEWPOINTS
CLOSE TO 60! ALSO...THERE IS A LOT OF WIND JUST OFF THE DECK INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH DEVELOP EVEN
IN THE INTERIOR...DEPENDING ON IF WE CAN MUSTER ANY PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY NIGHT...

STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL NOT ALLOW WINDS TO DECOUPLE.

THIS COMBINED WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT
IN AN UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE
50S IN MOST LOCATIONS! MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT A FEW
SPOT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD TUESDAY
- STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TRAVEL IMPACTS
- TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. IN AGREEMENT
WITH WPC: CONTINUED SPREAD OF GUIDANCE UPSTREAM RESULTING IN THE
POOR RESOLVING OF DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS. INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS /
ENSEMBLES STILL UNDECIDED ON THE RELATIVE TRACK / STRENGTH OF DOWN-
STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS
ACROSS THE REGION OF WHICH WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL
ABOUT 2-3 DAYS PRIOR.

NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUE TO WEIGH PREFERENCE UPON THE W-ENVELOPE OF
FORECAST SOLUTIONS. BELIEVE THE 23.6Z / 23.12Z GFS AND THE 23.12Z EC
ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFER THE MOST REASONABLE NE-TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. AGREE WITH WPC
NOTING THERE HAS BEEN A WIDE SPREAD OF EC DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ON
THE W-HALF OF THE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE UKMET...WHILE THE CANADIAN
REMAINS TO THE RIGHT.

EXPECT A MODERATE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL RESULT IN
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON BOTH THE STRENGTH AND THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM. ASIDE...EXPECTING SOME SORT OF RAIN AND / OR SNOW BAND
SOMEWHERE ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL PREFERENCE OF
RAIN OVER COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND SNOWS FOR THE INTERIOR.

THE ONLY CERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM OF
WHICH IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...
INCREASING INTO THE EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM CONCLUDING THURSDAY
MORNING.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY AND MILD. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL BENEATH THE DRY-SLOT REARWARD
OF THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY IN CANADA. AM
EXPECTING BLUSTERY SW-FLOW WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH ALONG THE S-COAST.
WINDS RELAXING INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT FLOW OVERNIGHT COULD MAKE FOR
A GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING SETUP. BUT ANTICIPATING MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE S INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SYNOPTICALLY...SUCCESSIVE PACIFIC-IMPULSES MAINTAIN AN OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH INTO THE GULF. UNDERGOING A NEGATIVE-TILT ACROSS THE E-CONUS
INITIATES AND INTENSIFIES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE N-GULF NE
OVER THE W-ATLANTIC ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET BY
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. NO APPRECIABLE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING SIGNIFIES A
PROGRESSIVE-FLOW PATTERN /+NAO/ RESULTING IN THE ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-
LOW PATTERN ABOVE H7 /LESS EMPHASIS OF A CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WARM
CONVEYER BELT/...WHILE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR REARWARD ACROSS
C-CANADA /+AO/ RESULTING IN THERMAL PROFILES AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK OVER S NEW ENGLAND.

TOWARDS EVENING...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND MODEST
W-COMPONENT OF AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW...AND DRIER AIR N/W INITIALLY...AM
EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL FRONT SETUP.

OVERNIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN AND
LACK OF A CLOSED LOW ABOVE H7...MUCH OF THE EMPHASIS IS WITH THE
ANTI-CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB. NEVERTHELESS A FRONT-END THUMP IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE ASCENT / FORCING PER FRONTOGENESIS NW OF
H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK TROWALING TOWARD
THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG DEEP-LAYER LIFT
THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A SW-NE BAND SIGNATURE
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH WHERE EXACTLY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS IS
THE EXACT TRACK AS WELL AS THE DEPTH / STRENGTH OF THE STORM.

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
JUST BELOW FREEZING UP TO H7 PER THE PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS NOTED
EARLIER...THEN WOULD EXPECT INTERIOR SNOWS /WITH A NEAR 1:10 RATIO/
AND COASTAL RAINS. KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF THE
H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C. THE DIVIDING
LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS. CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE
DOES WEIGH SOME INDICATION PER PROBABILITIES OF > 2 INCHES OF SNOW.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. 23.12Z EC / UKMET CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
WARMER-END OF SOLUTIONS. IF THE 23.12Z GFS / GEFS AND 23.15Z SREF
ARE CORRECT WITH THE TRACK OF THE H85 / SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD /CANADIAN THE FAR E SOLUTION/ THEN
WOULD EXPECT A PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR N/W OF THE I-95/495
CORRIDOR...KEEPING IN MIND THERE IS LIKELY WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN /
SNOW BAND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES THIS FAR OUT IN
THE FORECAST. SO WITH THAT BEING SAID...WILL NOT ISSUE OUT ANY SNOW-
FALL GRAPHICS WITH THIS FORECAST. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO CERTAINTY
AS TO SNOW-OUTCOMES.

CIPS ANALOGS HAVE TONED DOWN ON THE WIND PROBABILITIES. BUT WITH THE
AFOREMENTION MODEL PREFERENCE...WILL NEED TO WATCH THE NE-FLOW OVER
E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH
AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN.

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY. ALL SORTS OF DEPENDENCIES AND INTANGIBLES. ITS A HARD
KNOCK LIFE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE SW TO NE 6-12Z WITH RAIN
AND A LOW RISK OF TSRA LINGERING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MIX OF
MVFR-IFR...IFR-LIFR WITH +RA / TSRA. S-WINDS 35-40 KTS WITH LLWS
2 KFT OUT OF THE S AROUND 45 KTS.

RAIN PUSHES E AROUND MIDDAY...THOUGH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
WITH S-WINDS AROUND 35 KTS. SPOT SHOWERS AND THE THREAT OF LLWS
OUT OF THE SW LINGERS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR OVER N/W TERMINALS OF S NEW
ENGLAND. BLUSTERLY SW-WINDS CONTINUE.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. POTENTIAL WIGGLE IN TIMING
SPECIFICS. WILL KEEP IFR OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH EXPECT GUSTY
S-WINDS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS WILL BE OF GREAT CONCERN
WITH WEAK E-FLOW WINDS WITH MODERATE RAIN. POTENTIAL WIGGLE IN
TIMING SPECIFICS. WITH ANY +RA ANTICIPATE IFR IMPACTS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS INITIALLY TUESDAY MORNING. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED. POSSIBLE THREATS OF A PLOWABLE SNOW
OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WITH STRONG NE WINDS OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...MAYBE EVEN +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR ANTICIPATED. STORM
IMPACTS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE
STORM AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

LATER-THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

IMPROVING VFR. BUT MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS ON STORM MORPHOLOGY.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

7 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

DEEPENING LOW LIFTING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WILL INDUCE STRONG
WINDS ALOFT MONDAY MORNING. WHILE POTENTIAL MIXING TO THE SURFACE
WILL BE LIMITED...STILL THINK THERE IS A DECENT SHOT OF SOUTHERLY
35-40 KT GUSTS. SUCH GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS MAY CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY EVENING OUT OF THE SW.

GALE WARNINGS HOISTED FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR. SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
TUESDAY MORNING...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED PASSING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S
OF NANTUCKET. POSSIBLE THREATS OF STRONG NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...INCLUDING ALL ADJACENT AND OUTER WATERS. HEAVY RAIN
LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. STORM IMPACTS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE MON MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1-2 FT IS
LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
MINOR FLOOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ020>022.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ236.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 232358
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
658 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON.  QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW-WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET SPECIFIC OUTCOMES REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

7 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
  ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...

1) BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING...BUT THE WEATHER WILL
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WORKING UP TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
INDUCE A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WILL TRANSPORT DEEP
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AS PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 3 AND 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THAT COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING SHOULD
YIELD A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN. THUNDER INDICES ARE MARGINAL
BUT ENOUGH FORCING COULD GENERATE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. FORTUNATELY THE SYSTEM
IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO EXPECT THE STEADY/HEAVY RAIN TO BE OVER
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF
0.50 TO 1 INCHES IN MOST LOCALES...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GENERATE ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...OTHER THAN TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
STREET FLOODING WHICH WILL UNFORTUNATELY COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY
AM RUSH HOUR.

2) STRONG WIND GUSTS POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY
MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE INVERSION...ITS ALWAYS TRICKY TO SEE
HOW MUCH WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT DOWN TO THE GROUND. LOW
LEVEL JET AT 850 MB IS AROUND 80 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND COAST BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. TAKING HALF OF THAT OFTEN CAN
GET YOU IN THE BALL PARK OF WHAT WILL BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THEREFORE...HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND FAR SOUTHEAST MA MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
MPH. IF WE CAN GET A FINE LINE GOING...CONFIDENCE WOULD INCREASE
MORE IN BEING ABLE TO BRING THE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE GROUND.
NONETHELESS...STILL THOUGHT IT WAS WORTH THE ADVISORY.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE STRONG MID LEVEL LIFT/MOISTURE WILL HAVE LIFTED TO OUR NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE STEADY AND HEAVY RAIN WILL
HAVE COME TO AN END. WE WILL STILL HAVE A LOT OF LOW LEVEL
LIFT/MOISTURE AROUND FOR A FEW PASSING SHOWERS SO MAINTAINED SOME
POPS. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY MILD DAY IN STORE FOR THE
REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF +10 TO +12C. DESPITE A
LOT OF CLOUDS...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO SURGE
WELL INTO THE 60S. NOT SURE IF WE WILL SEE MUCH SUN GIVEN SO MUCH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT IF WE END UP WITH MORE THAN EXPECTED SOME
LOCATIONS COULD REACH OR EXCEED 70. REGARDLESS...WILL ACTUALLY
FEEL A BIT MUGGY FOR LATE NOVEMBER STANDARDS...WITH DEWPOINTS
CLOSE TO 60! ALSO...THERE IS A LOT OF WIND JUST OFF THE DECK INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH DEVELOP EVEN
IN THE INTERIOR...DEPENDING ON IF WE CAN MUSTER ANY PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY NIGHT...

STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL NOT ALLOW WINDS TO DECOUPLE.

THIS COMBINED WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT
IN AN UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE
50S IN MOST LOCATIONS! MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT A FEW
SPOT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD TUESDAY
- STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TRAVEL IMPACTS
- TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. IN AGREEMENT
WITH WPC: CONTINUED SPREAD OF GUIDANCE UPSTREAM RESULTING IN THE
POOR RESOLVING OF DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS. INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS /
ENSEMBLES STILL UNDECIDED ON THE RELATIVE TRACK / STRENGTH OF DOWN-
STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS
ACROSS THE REGION OF WHICH WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL
ABOUT 2-3 DAYS PRIOR.

NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUE TO WEIGH PREFERENCE UPON THE W-ENVELOPE OF
FORECAST SOLUTIONS. BELIEVE THE 23.6Z / 23.12Z GFS AND THE 23.12Z EC
ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFER THE MOST REASONABLE NE-TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. AGREE WITH WPC
NOTING THERE HAS BEEN A WIDE SPREAD OF EC DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ON
THE W-HALF OF THE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE UKMET...WHILE THE CANADIAN
REMAINS TO THE RIGHT.

EXPECT A MODERATE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL RESULT IN
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON BOTH THE STRENGTH AND THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM. ASIDE...EXPECTING SOME SORT OF RAIN AND / OR SNOW BAND
SOMEWHERE ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL PREFERENCE OF
RAIN OVER COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND SNOWS FOR THE INTERIOR.

THE ONLY CERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM OF
WHICH IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...
INCREASING INTO THE EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM CONCLUDING THURSDAY
MORNING.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY AND MILD. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL BENEATH THE DRY-SLOT REARWARD
OF THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY IN CANADA. AM
EXPECTING BLUSTERY SW-FLOW WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH ALONG THE S-COAST.
WINDS RELAXING INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT FLOW OVERNIGHT COULD MAKE FOR
A GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING SETUP. BUT ANTICIPATING MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE S INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SYNOPTICALLY...SUCCESSIVE PACIFIC-IMPULSES MAINTAIN AN OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH INTO THE GULF. UNDERGOING A NEGATIVE-TILT ACROSS THE E-CONUS
INITIATES AND INTENSIFIES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE N-GULF NE
OVER THE W-ATLANTIC ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET BY
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. NO APPRECIABLE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING SIGNIFIES A
PROGRESSIVE-FLOW PATTERN /+NAO/ RESULTING IN THE ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-
LOW PATTERN ABOVE H7 /LESS EMPHASIS OF A CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WARM
CONVEYER BELT/...WHILE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR REARWARD ACROSS
C-CANADA /+AO/ RESULTING IN THERMAL PROFILES AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK OVER S NEW ENGLAND.

TOWARDS EVENING...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND MODEST
W-COMPONENT OF AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW...AND DRIER AIR N/W INITIALLY...AM
EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL FRONT SETUP.

OVERNIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN AND
LACK OF A CLOSED LOW ABOVE H7...MUCH OF THE EMPHASIS IS WITH THE
ANTI-CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB. NEVERTHELESS A FRONT-END THUMP IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE ASCENT / FORCING PER FRONTOGENESIS NW OF
H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK TROWALING TOWARD
THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG DEEP-LAYER LIFT
THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A SW-NE BAND SIGNATURE
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH WHERE EXACTLY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS IS
THE EXACT TRACK AS WELL AS THE DEPTH / STRENGTH OF THE STORM.

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
JUST BELOW FREEZING UP TO H7 PER THE PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS NOTED
EARLIER...THEN WOULD EXPECT INTERIOR SNOWS /WITH A NEAR 1:10 RATIO/
AND COASTAL RAINS. KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF THE
H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C. THE DIVIDING
LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS. CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE
DOES WEIGH SOME INDICATION PER PROBABILITIES OF > 2 INCHES OF SNOW.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. 23.12Z EC / UKMET CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
WARMER-END OF SOLUTIONS. IF THE 23.12Z GFS / GEFS AND 23.15Z SREF
ARE CORRECT WITH THE TRACK OF THE H85 / SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD /CANADIAN THE FAR E SOLUTION/ THEN
WOULD EXPECT A PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR N/W OF THE I-95/495
CORRIDOR...KEEPING IN MIND THERE IS LIKELY WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN /
SNOW BAND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES THIS FAR OUT IN
THE FORECAST. SO WITH THAT BEING SAID...WILL NOT ISSUE OUT ANY SNOW-
FALL GRAPHICS WITH THIS FORECAST. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO CERTAINTY
AS TO SNOW-OUTCOMES.

CIPS ANALOGS HAVE TONED DOWN ON THE WIND PROBABILITIES. BUT WITH THE
AFOREMENTION MODEL PREFERENCE...WILL NEED TO WATCH THE NE-FLOW OVER
E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH
AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN.

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY. ALL SORTS OF DEPENDENCIES AND INTANGIBLES. ITS A HARD
KNOCK LIFE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE SW TO NE 6-12Z WITH RAIN
AND A LOW RISK OF TSRA LINGERING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MIX OF
MVFR-IFR...IFR-LIFR WITH +RA / TSRA. S-WINDS 35-40 KTS WITH LLWS
2 KFT OUT OF THE S AROUND 45 KTS.

RAIN PUSHES E AROUND MIDDAY...THOUGH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
WITH S-WINDS AROUND 35 KTS. SPOT SHOWERS AND THE THREAT OF LLWS
OUT OF THE SW LINGERS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR OVER N/W TERMINALS OF S NEW
ENGLAND. BLUSTERLY SW-WINDS CONTINUE.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. POTENTIAL WIGGLE IN TIMING
SPECIFICS. WILL KEEP IFR OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH EXPECT GUSTY
S-WINDS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS WILL BE OF GREAT CONCERN
WITH WEAK E-FLOW WINDS WITH MODERATE RAIN. POTENTIAL WIGGLE IN
TIMING SPECIFICS. WITH ANY +RA ANTICIPATE IFR IMPACTS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS INITIALLY TUESDAY MORNING. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED. POSSIBLE THREATS OF A PLOWABLE SNOW
OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WITH STRONG NE WINDS OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...MAYBE EVEN +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR ANTICIPATED. STORM
IMPACTS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE
STORM AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

LATER-THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

IMPROVING VFR. BUT MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS ON STORM MORPHOLOGY.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

7 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

DEEPENING LOW LIFTING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WILL INDUCE STRONG
WINDS ALOFT MONDAY MORNING. WHILE POTENTIAL MIXING TO THE SURFACE
WILL BE LIMITED...STILL THINK THERE IS A DECENT SHOT OF SOUTHERLY
35-40 KT GUSTS. SUCH GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS MAY CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY EVENING OUT OF THE SW.

GALE WARNINGS HOISTED FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR. SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
TUESDAY MORNING...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED PASSING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S
OF NANTUCKET. POSSIBLE THREATS OF STRONG NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...INCLUDING ALL ADJACENT AND OUTER WATERS. HEAVY RAIN
LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. STORM IMPACTS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE MON MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1-2 FT IS
LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
MINOR FLOOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ020>022.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ236.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KGYX 232330 RRA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
630 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
630 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 3 AM OR SO.

PREVIOUSLY...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS WENT WELL INTO 50S
TODAY, AND TDS CLIMBED TO AROUND 40 IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP THE MINS IN THESE AREAS WELL ABV FREEZING
OVERNIGHT AS WAA RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
THE THE N AND W MANY AREAS ARE INTO THE 40S WITH TDS IN THE UPPER
30S...SO MOST PLACES IN THIS AREA WILL START AS RAIN ALSO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
RADIATE...THEY COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
THE START...GENERALLY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MINS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AROUND 06Z AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS LIKELY TO BEGIN
TO RISE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS AS WARMER TEMPS MIX DOWN. A STEADY
RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND END FROM SW TO
NE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN ERN ZONES...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SOME SCT SHRA. QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A
THIRD TO A HALF INCH. ONCE THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE
AREAS...EXPECTING WARM SECTOR TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF SUN. EVEN WITHOUT
THE SUN...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE SRN
ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST. NERN ZONES WILL STAY COOLER WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO AROUND 50.

500 MB LOW WELL TO OUR NW SLOWS ANDS DEEPENS LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT...AND SFC FRONT AND FLOW ALOFT ALIGN...AND SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST OUT NW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT AS SW FLOW
CONTINUES THRU THE NIGHT. MINS WILL ONLY DROP OFF TO NEAR 50 ON
THE COAST...AND INTO THE 40S INLAND. WILL SEE SCT
SHRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN NRN ZONES.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***COASTAL STORM LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO BUSY
 HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD***

COLD FNT CROSSES THE AREA TUE...WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL THEN STALL OFF THE COAST AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR COASTAL
STORM LATER WED INTO THU.

FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS ENTERING THE DAY 3 TO 4 TIME PERIOD...THERE
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST. WWD SHIFT CONTINUED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE TODAY...AT LEAST
ALLOWING FOR A GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL FALL ACROSS NH
AND WRN ME WED INTO THU. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS
RANGE FROM A COASTAL SCRAPER WITH LIGHT SNWFL NEAR THE COAST...THE
CMC...TO A STRONG LOW PRES CUTTING THRU THE HEART OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND BRINGING MIXING WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...THE ECMWF.

THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE N PACIFIC...WHERE A
TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA S OF AK. THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE
DOWNSTREAM WRN N AMERICA RIDGE. MONITORING THE HEIGHT FIELDS IN
THESE AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
NARROWING DOWN THE FORECAST. HIGHER THAN MODELED HEIGHTS OUT W
COULD LEND SUPPORT TOWARDS THE FARTHER W LOW PRES TRACK ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

ATTM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FEATURES SOME PCPN ALONG THE COAST...SO
HAVE INCREASED POP FURTHER. NOW THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN
PTYPE. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK PLENTY COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY FOR SNWFL FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. AND IF THE ECMWF WERE CORRECT...COULD COME DOWN
QUITE HEAVILY FOR A TIME...BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT FLOODS NWD AND
CHANGES PCPN TO A MIX...RAIN...OR DRY SLOTS ALTOGETHER. GIVEN THAT
IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...A BLEND REMAINS THE BEST FORECAST
OPTION...THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFS PROVIDES A NICE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTION BETWEEN THE CMC AND ECMWF. TIMING DIFFERENCE ARE
MINIMAL...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT PCPN WILL BE MOVING IN QUICKLY
WED EVE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TRAVEL DISRUPTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ESPECIALLY WITH A HIGH VOLUME OF
PEOPLE ON THE ROADS AND AT AIRPORTS.

SECONDARY COLD FNT THEN HIGH PRES FOLLOW FOR FRI...WITH COLDER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING. RAIN MOVES IN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER FROM THE  PRE-DAWN
THRU ABOUT MIDDAY MON. VFR RETURNS DURING MON AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TUE. VFR
CONDITIONS WED GIVE WAY QUICKLY WED EVENING TO IFR OR LOWER AS
SNWFL MOVES NWD UP THE COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE AFTER WED
EVE...AS WARM AIR ALOFT MAY TURN TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN AT THE
COAST. A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS GROWING MORE LIKELY
WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA...BUT HAVE HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY FOR MON INTO MON EVENING AS SW FLOW
INCREASES AND PERSISTS AND PUSHES SEAS TO THE 7-10 FT RANGE.


LONG TERM...GALES ARE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU AS COASTAL STORM
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 232330
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
341 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
630 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 3 AM OR SO.

PREVIOUSLY...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS WENT WELL INTO 50S
TODAY, AND TDS CLIMBED TO AROUND 40 IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP THE MINS IN THESE AREAS WELL ABV FREEZING
OVERNIGHT AS WAA RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
THE THE N AND W MANY AREAS ARE INTO THE 40S WITH TDS IN THE UPPER
30S...SO MOST PLACES IN THIS AREA WILL START AS RAIN ALSO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
RADIATE...THEY COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
THE START...GENERALLY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MINS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AROUND 06Z AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS LIKELY TO BEGIN
TO RISE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS AS WARMER TEMPS MIX DOWN. A STEADY
RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND END FROM SW TO
NE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN ERN ZONES...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SOME SCT SHRA. QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A
THIRD TO A HALF INCH. ONCE THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE
AREAS...EXPECTING WARM SECTOR TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF SUN. EVEN WITHOUT
THE SUN...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE SRN
ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST. NERN ZONES WILL STAY COOLER WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO AROUND 50.

500 MB LOW WELL TO OUR NW SLOWS ANDS DEEPENS LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT...AND SFC FRONT AND FLOW ALOFT ALIGN...AND SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST OUT NW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT AS SW FLOW
CONTINUES THRU THE NIGHT. MINS WILL ONLY DROP OFF TO NEAR 50 ON
THE COAST...AND INTO THE 40S INLAND. WILL SEE SCT
SHRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN NRN ZONES.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***COASTAL STORM LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO BUSY
 HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD***

COLD FNT CROSSES THE AREA TUE...WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL THEN STALL OFF THE COAST AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR COASTAL
STORM LATER WED INTO THU.

FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS ENTERING THE DAY 3 TO 4 TIME PERIOD...THERE
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST. WWD SHIFT CONTINUED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE TODAY...AT LEAST
ALLOWING FOR A GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL FALL ACROSS NH
AND WRN ME WED INTO THU. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS
RANGE FROM A COASTAL SCRAPER WITH LIGHT SNWFL NEAR THE COAST...THE
CMC...TO A STRONG LOW PRES CUTTING THRU THE HEART OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND BRINGING MIXING WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...THE ECMWF.

THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE N PACIFIC...WHERE A
TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA S OF AK. THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE
DOWNSTREAM WRN N AMERICA RIDGE. MONITORING THE HEIGHT FIELDS IN
THESE AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
NARROWING DOWN THE FORECAST. HIGHER THAN MODELED HEIGHTS OUT W
COULD LEND SUPPORT TOWARDS THE FARTHER W LOW PRES TRACK ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

ATTM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FEATURES SOME PCPN ALONG THE COAST...SO
HAVE INCREASED POP FURTHER. NOW THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN
PTYPE. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK PLENTY COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY FOR SNWFL FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. AND IF THE ECMWF WERE CORRECT...COULD COME DOWN
QUITE HEAVILY FOR A TIME...BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT FLOODS NWD AND
CHANGES PCPN TO A MIX...RAIN...OR DRY SLOTS ALTOGETHER. GIVEN THAT
IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...A BLEND REMAINS THE BEST FORECAST
OPTION...THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFS PROVIDES A NICE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTION BETWEEN THE CMC AND ECMWF. TIMING DIFFERENCE ARE
MINIMAL...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT PCPN WILL BE MOVING IN QUICKLY
WED EVE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TRAVEL DISRUPTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ESPECIALLY WITH A HIGH VOLUME OF
PEOPLE ON THE ROADS AND AT AIRPORTS.

SECONDARY COLD FNT THEN HIGH PRES FOLLOW FOR FRI...WITH COLDER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING. RAIN MOVES IN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER FROM THE  PRE-DAWN
THRU ABOUT MIDDAY MON. VFR RETURNS DURING MON AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TUE. VFR
CONDITIONS WED GIVE WAY QUICKLY WED EVENING TO IFR OR LOWER AS
SNWFL MOVES NWD UP THE COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE AFTER WED
EVE...AS WARM AIR ALOFT MAY TURN TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN AT THE
COAST. A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS GROWING MORE LIKELY
WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA...BUT HAVE HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY FOR MON INTO MON EVENING AS SW FLOW
INCREASES AND PERSISTS AND PUSHES SEAS TO THE 7-10 FT RANGE.


LONG TERM...GALES ARE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU AS COASTAL STORM
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 232330
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
341 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
630 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 3 AM OR SO.

PREVIOUSLY...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS WENT WELL INTO 50S
TODAY, AND TDS CLIMBED TO AROUND 40 IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP THE MINS IN THESE AREAS WELL ABV FREEZING
OVERNIGHT AS WAA RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
THE THE N AND W MANY AREAS ARE INTO THE 40S WITH TDS IN THE UPPER
30S...SO MOST PLACES IN THIS AREA WILL START AS RAIN ALSO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
RADIATE...THEY COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
THE START...GENERALLY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MINS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AROUND 06Z AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS LIKELY TO BEGIN
TO RISE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS AS WARMER TEMPS MIX DOWN. A STEADY
RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND END FROM SW TO
NE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN ERN ZONES...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SOME SCT SHRA. QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A
THIRD TO A HALF INCH. ONCE THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE
AREAS...EXPECTING WARM SECTOR TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF SUN. EVEN WITHOUT
THE SUN...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE SRN
ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST. NERN ZONES WILL STAY COOLER WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO AROUND 50.

500 MB LOW WELL TO OUR NW SLOWS ANDS DEEPENS LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT...AND SFC FRONT AND FLOW ALOFT ALIGN...AND SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST OUT NW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT AS SW FLOW
CONTINUES THRU THE NIGHT. MINS WILL ONLY DROP OFF TO NEAR 50 ON
THE COAST...AND INTO THE 40S INLAND. WILL SEE SCT
SHRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN NRN ZONES.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***COASTAL STORM LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO BUSY
 HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD***

COLD FNT CROSSES THE AREA TUE...WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL THEN STALL OFF THE COAST AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR COASTAL
STORM LATER WED INTO THU.

FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS ENTERING THE DAY 3 TO 4 TIME PERIOD...THERE
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST. WWD SHIFT CONTINUED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE TODAY...AT LEAST
ALLOWING FOR A GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL FALL ACROSS NH
AND WRN ME WED INTO THU. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS
RANGE FROM A COASTAL SCRAPER WITH LIGHT SNWFL NEAR THE COAST...THE
CMC...TO A STRONG LOW PRES CUTTING THRU THE HEART OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND BRINGING MIXING WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...THE ECMWF.

THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE N PACIFIC...WHERE A
TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA S OF AK. THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE
DOWNSTREAM WRN N AMERICA RIDGE. MONITORING THE HEIGHT FIELDS IN
THESE AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
NARROWING DOWN THE FORECAST. HIGHER THAN MODELED HEIGHTS OUT W
COULD LEND SUPPORT TOWARDS THE FARTHER W LOW PRES TRACK ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

ATTM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FEATURES SOME PCPN ALONG THE COAST...SO
HAVE INCREASED POP FURTHER. NOW THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN
PTYPE. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK PLENTY COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY FOR SNWFL FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. AND IF THE ECMWF WERE CORRECT...COULD COME DOWN
QUITE HEAVILY FOR A TIME...BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT FLOODS NWD AND
CHANGES PCPN TO A MIX...RAIN...OR DRY SLOTS ALTOGETHER. GIVEN THAT
IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...A BLEND REMAINS THE BEST FORECAST
OPTION...THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFS PROVIDES A NICE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTION BETWEEN THE CMC AND ECMWF. TIMING DIFFERENCE ARE
MINIMAL...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT PCPN WILL BE MOVING IN QUICKLY
WED EVE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TRAVEL DISRUPTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ESPECIALLY WITH A HIGH VOLUME OF
PEOPLE ON THE ROADS AND AT AIRPORTS.

SECONDARY COLD FNT THEN HIGH PRES FOLLOW FOR FRI...WITH COLDER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING. RAIN MOVES IN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER FROM THE  PRE-DAWN
THRU ABOUT MIDDAY MON. VFR RETURNS DURING MON AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TUE. VFR
CONDITIONS WED GIVE WAY QUICKLY WED EVENING TO IFR OR LOWER AS
SNWFL MOVES NWD UP THE COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE AFTER WED
EVE...AS WARM AIR ALOFT MAY TURN TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN AT THE
COAST. A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS GROWING MORE LIKELY
WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA...BUT HAVE HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY FOR MON INTO MON EVENING AS SW FLOW
INCREASES AND PERSISTS AND PUSHES SEAS TO THE 7-10 FT RANGE.


LONG TERM...GALES ARE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU AS COASTAL STORM
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 232330
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
341 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
630 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 3 AM OR SO.

PREVIOUSLY...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS WENT WELL INTO 50S
TODAY, AND TDS CLIMBED TO AROUND 40 IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP THE MINS IN THESE AREAS WELL ABV FREEZING
OVERNIGHT AS WAA RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
THE THE N AND W MANY AREAS ARE INTO THE 40S WITH TDS IN THE UPPER
30S...SO MOST PLACES IN THIS AREA WILL START AS RAIN ALSO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
RADIATE...THEY COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
THE START...GENERALLY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MINS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AROUND 06Z AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS LIKELY TO BEGIN
TO RISE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS AS WARMER TEMPS MIX DOWN. A STEADY
RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND END FROM SW TO
NE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN ERN ZONES...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SOME SCT SHRA. QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A
THIRD TO A HALF INCH. ONCE THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE
AREAS...EXPECTING WARM SECTOR TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF SUN. EVEN WITHOUT
THE SUN...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE SRN
ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST. NERN ZONES WILL STAY COOLER WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO AROUND 50.

500 MB LOW WELL TO OUR NW SLOWS ANDS DEEPENS LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT...AND SFC FRONT AND FLOW ALOFT ALIGN...AND SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST OUT NW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT AS SW FLOW
CONTINUES THRU THE NIGHT. MINS WILL ONLY DROP OFF TO NEAR 50 ON
THE COAST...AND INTO THE 40S INLAND. WILL SEE SCT
SHRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN NRN ZONES.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***COASTAL STORM LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO BUSY
 HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD***

COLD FNT CROSSES THE AREA TUE...WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL THEN STALL OFF THE COAST AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR COASTAL
STORM LATER WED INTO THU.

FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS ENTERING THE DAY 3 TO 4 TIME PERIOD...THERE
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST. WWD SHIFT CONTINUED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE TODAY...AT LEAST
ALLOWING FOR A GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL FALL ACROSS NH
AND WRN ME WED INTO THU. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS
RANGE FROM A COASTAL SCRAPER WITH LIGHT SNWFL NEAR THE COAST...THE
CMC...TO A STRONG LOW PRES CUTTING THRU THE HEART OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND BRINGING MIXING WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...THE ECMWF.

THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE N PACIFIC...WHERE A
TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA S OF AK. THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE
DOWNSTREAM WRN N AMERICA RIDGE. MONITORING THE HEIGHT FIELDS IN
THESE AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
NARROWING DOWN THE FORECAST. HIGHER THAN MODELED HEIGHTS OUT W
COULD LEND SUPPORT TOWARDS THE FARTHER W LOW PRES TRACK ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

ATTM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FEATURES SOME PCPN ALONG THE COAST...SO
HAVE INCREASED POP FURTHER. NOW THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN
PTYPE. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK PLENTY COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY FOR SNWFL FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. AND IF THE ECMWF WERE CORRECT...COULD COME DOWN
QUITE HEAVILY FOR A TIME...BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT FLOODS NWD AND
CHANGES PCPN TO A MIX...RAIN...OR DRY SLOTS ALTOGETHER. GIVEN THAT
IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...A BLEND REMAINS THE BEST FORECAST
OPTION...THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFS PROVIDES A NICE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTION BETWEEN THE CMC AND ECMWF. TIMING DIFFERENCE ARE
MINIMAL...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT PCPN WILL BE MOVING IN QUICKLY
WED EVE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TRAVEL DISRUPTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ESPECIALLY WITH A HIGH VOLUME OF
PEOPLE ON THE ROADS AND AT AIRPORTS.

SECONDARY COLD FNT THEN HIGH PRES FOLLOW FOR FRI...WITH COLDER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING. RAIN MOVES IN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER FROM THE  PRE-DAWN
THRU ABOUT MIDDAY MON. VFR RETURNS DURING MON AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TUE. VFR
CONDITIONS WED GIVE WAY QUICKLY WED EVENING TO IFR OR LOWER AS
SNWFL MOVES NWD UP THE COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE AFTER WED
EVE...AS WARM AIR ALOFT MAY TURN TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN AT THE
COAST. A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS GROWING MORE LIKELY
WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA...BUT HAVE HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY FOR MON INTO MON EVENING AS SW FLOW
INCREASES AND PERSISTS AND PUSHES SEAS TO THE 7-10 FT RANGE.


LONG TERM...GALES ARE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU AS COASTAL STORM
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 232330
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
341 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
630 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 3 AM OR SO.

PREVIOUSLY...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS WENT WELL INTO 50S
TODAY, AND TDS CLIMBED TO AROUND 40 IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP THE MINS IN THESE AREAS WELL ABV FREEZING
OVERNIGHT AS WAA RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
THE THE N AND W MANY AREAS ARE INTO THE 40S WITH TDS IN THE UPPER
30S...SO MOST PLACES IN THIS AREA WILL START AS RAIN ALSO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
RADIATE...THEY COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
THE START...GENERALLY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MINS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AROUND 06Z AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS LIKELY TO BEGIN
TO RISE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS AS WARMER TEMPS MIX DOWN. A STEADY
RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND END FROM SW TO
NE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN ERN ZONES...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SOME SCT SHRA. QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A
THIRD TO A HALF INCH. ONCE THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE
AREAS...EXPECTING WARM SECTOR TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF SUN. EVEN WITHOUT
THE SUN...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE SRN
ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST. NERN ZONES WILL STAY COOLER WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO AROUND 50.

500 MB LOW WELL TO OUR NW SLOWS ANDS DEEPENS LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT...AND SFC FRONT AND FLOW ALOFT ALIGN...AND SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST OUT NW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT AS SW FLOW
CONTINUES THRU THE NIGHT. MINS WILL ONLY DROP OFF TO NEAR 50 ON
THE COAST...AND INTO THE 40S INLAND. WILL SEE SCT
SHRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN NRN ZONES.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***COASTAL STORM LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO BUSY
 HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD***

COLD FNT CROSSES THE AREA TUE...WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL THEN STALL OFF THE COAST AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR COASTAL
STORM LATER WED INTO THU.

FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS ENTERING THE DAY 3 TO 4 TIME PERIOD...THERE
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST. WWD SHIFT CONTINUED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE TODAY...AT LEAST
ALLOWING FOR A GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL FALL ACROSS NH
AND WRN ME WED INTO THU. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS
RANGE FROM A COASTAL SCRAPER WITH LIGHT SNWFL NEAR THE COAST...THE
CMC...TO A STRONG LOW PRES CUTTING THRU THE HEART OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND BRINGING MIXING WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...THE ECMWF.

THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE N PACIFIC...WHERE A
TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA S OF AK. THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE
DOWNSTREAM WRN N AMERICA RIDGE. MONITORING THE HEIGHT FIELDS IN
THESE AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
NARROWING DOWN THE FORECAST. HIGHER THAN MODELED HEIGHTS OUT W
COULD LEND SUPPORT TOWARDS THE FARTHER W LOW PRES TRACK ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

ATTM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FEATURES SOME PCPN ALONG THE COAST...SO
HAVE INCREASED POP FURTHER. NOW THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN
PTYPE. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK PLENTY COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY FOR SNWFL FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. AND IF THE ECMWF WERE CORRECT...COULD COME DOWN
QUITE HEAVILY FOR A TIME...BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT FLOODS NWD AND
CHANGES PCPN TO A MIX...RAIN...OR DRY SLOTS ALTOGETHER. GIVEN THAT
IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...A BLEND REMAINS THE BEST FORECAST
OPTION...THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFS PROVIDES A NICE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTION BETWEEN THE CMC AND ECMWF. TIMING DIFFERENCE ARE
MINIMAL...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT PCPN WILL BE MOVING IN QUICKLY
WED EVE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TRAVEL DISRUPTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ESPECIALLY WITH A HIGH VOLUME OF
PEOPLE ON THE ROADS AND AT AIRPORTS.

SECONDARY COLD FNT THEN HIGH PRES FOLLOW FOR FRI...WITH COLDER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING. RAIN MOVES IN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER FROM THE  PRE-DAWN
THRU ABOUT MIDDAY MON. VFR RETURNS DURING MON AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TUE. VFR
CONDITIONS WED GIVE WAY QUICKLY WED EVENING TO IFR OR LOWER AS
SNWFL MOVES NWD UP THE COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE AFTER WED
EVE...AS WARM AIR ALOFT MAY TURN TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN AT THE
COAST. A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS GROWING MORE LIKELY
WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA...BUT HAVE HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY FOR MON INTO MON EVENING AS SW FLOW
INCREASES AND PERSISTS AND PUSHES SEAS TO THE 7-10 FT RANGE.


LONG TERM...GALES ARE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU AS COASTAL STORM
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 232330 RRA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
630 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
630 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 3 AM OR SO.

PREVIOUSLY...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS WENT WELL INTO 50S
TODAY, AND TDS CLIMBED TO AROUND 40 IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP THE MINS IN THESE AREAS WELL ABV FREEZING
OVERNIGHT AS WAA RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
THE THE N AND W MANY AREAS ARE INTO THE 40S WITH TDS IN THE UPPER
30S...SO MOST PLACES IN THIS AREA WILL START AS RAIN ALSO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
RADIATE...THEY COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
THE START...GENERALLY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MINS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AROUND 06Z AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS LIKELY TO BEGIN
TO RISE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS AS WARMER TEMPS MIX DOWN. A STEADY
RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND END FROM SW TO
NE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN ERN ZONES...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SOME SCT SHRA. QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A
THIRD TO A HALF INCH. ONCE THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE
AREAS...EXPECTING WARM SECTOR TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF SUN. EVEN WITHOUT
THE SUN...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE SRN
ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST. NERN ZONES WILL STAY COOLER WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO AROUND 50.

500 MB LOW WELL TO OUR NW SLOWS ANDS DEEPENS LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT...AND SFC FRONT AND FLOW ALOFT ALIGN...AND SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST OUT NW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT AS SW FLOW
CONTINUES THRU THE NIGHT. MINS WILL ONLY DROP OFF TO NEAR 50 ON
THE COAST...AND INTO THE 40S INLAND. WILL SEE SCT
SHRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN NRN ZONES.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***COASTAL STORM LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO BUSY
 HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD***

COLD FNT CROSSES THE AREA TUE...WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL THEN STALL OFF THE COAST AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR COASTAL
STORM LATER WED INTO THU.

FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS ENTERING THE DAY 3 TO 4 TIME PERIOD...THERE
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST. WWD SHIFT CONTINUED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE TODAY...AT LEAST
ALLOWING FOR A GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL FALL ACROSS NH
AND WRN ME WED INTO THU. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS
RANGE FROM A COASTAL SCRAPER WITH LIGHT SNWFL NEAR THE COAST...THE
CMC...TO A STRONG LOW PRES CUTTING THRU THE HEART OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND BRINGING MIXING WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...THE ECMWF.

THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE N PACIFIC...WHERE A
TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA S OF AK. THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE
DOWNSTREAM WRN N AMERICA RIDGE. MONITORING THE HEIGHT FIELDS IN
THESE AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
NARROWING DOWN THE FORECAST. HIGHER THAN MODELED HEIGHTS OUT W
COULD LEND SUPPORT TOWARDS THE FARTHER W LOW PRES TRACK ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

ATTM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FEATURES SOME PCPN ALONG THE COAST...SO
HAVE INCREASED POP FURTHER. NOW THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN
PTYPE. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK PLENTY COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY FOR SNWFL FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. AND IF THE ECMWF WERE CORRECT...COULD COME DOWN
QUITE HEAVILY FOR A TIME...BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT FLOODS NWD AND
CHANGES PCPN TO A MIX...RAIN...OR DRY SLOTS ALTOGETHER. GIVEN THAT
IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...A BLEND REMAINS THE BEST FORECAST
OPTION...THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFS PROVIDES A NICE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTION BETWEEN THE CMC AND ECMWF. TIMING DIFFERENCE ARE
MINIMAL...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT PCPN WILL BE MOVING IN QUICKLY
WED EVE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TRAVEL DISRUPTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ESPECIALLY WITH A HIGH VOLUME OF
PEOPLE ON THE ROADS AND AT AIRPORTS.

SECONDARY COLD FNT THEN HIGH PRES FOLLOW FOR FRI...WITH COLDER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING. RAIN MOVES IN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER FROM THE  PRE-DAWN
THRU ABOUT MIDDAY MON. VFR RETURNS DURING MON AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TUE. VFR
CONDITIONS WED GIVE WAY QUICKLY WED EVENING TO IFR OR LOWER AS
SNWFL MOVES NWD UP THE COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE AFTER WED
EVE...AS WARM AIR ALOFT MAY TURN TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN AT THE
COAST. A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS GROWING MORE LIKELY
WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA...BUT HAVE HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY FOR MON INTO MON EVENING AS SW FLOW
INCREASES AND PERSISTS AND PUSHES SEAS TO THE 7-10 FT RANGE.


LONG TERM...GALES ARE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU AS COASTAL STORM
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KBOX 232117
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
417 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON.  QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW-WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET SPECIFIC OUTCOMES REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
  ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...

1) BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING...BUT THE WEATHER WILL
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z
MONDAY.  LOW PRESSURE WORKING UP TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WILL INDUCE
A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET.  THIS WILL TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AS PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 3 AND 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL.  THAT COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING SHOULD YIELD A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN.  THUNDER INDICES ARE MARGINAL...BUT
ENOUGH FORCING COULD GENERATE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  FORTUNATELY THE SYSTEM
IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO EXPECT THE STEADY/HEAVY RAIN TO BE OVER
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF
0.50 TO 1 INCHES IN MOST LOCALES...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GENERATE ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES.  SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...OTHER THAN TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
STREET FLOODING WHICH WILL UNFORTUNATELY COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY AM
RUSH HOUR.

2) STRONG WIND GUSTS POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY
MONDAY MORNING.  GIVEN THE INVERSION...ITS ALWAYS TRICKY TO SEE HOW
MUCH WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT DOWN TO THE GROUND.  LOW LEVEL JET
AT 850 MB IS AROUND 80 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.  TAKING HALF OF THAT OFTEN CAN GET YOU IN THE
BALL PARK OF WHAT WILL BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE.  THIS WOULD
RESULT IN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
ZONES. THEREFORE...HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN RHODE
ISLAND AND FAR SOUTHEAST MA MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.  IF
WE CAN GET A FINE LINE GOING...CONFIDENCE WOULD INCREASE MORE IN
BEING ABLE TO BRING THE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE GROUND.
NONETHELESS...STILL THOUGHT IT WAS WORTH THE ADVISORY.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE STRONG MID LEVEL LIFT/MOISTURE WILL HAVE LIFTED TO OUR NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE...THE STEADY AND HEAVY RAIN WILL
HAVE COME TO AN END.  WE WILL STILL HAVE A LOT OF LOW LEVEL
LIFT/MOISTURE AROUND FOR A FEW PASSING SHOWERS SO MAINTAINED SOME
POPS.  OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY MILD DAY IN STORE FOR THE
REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF +10 TO +12C.  DESPITE A LOT
OF CLOUDS...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO SURGE WELL
INTO THE 60S.  NOT SURE IF WE WILL SEE MUCH SUN GIVEN SO MUCH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT IF WE END UP WITH MORE THAN EXPECTED SOME
LOCATIONS COULD REACH OR EXCEED 70.  REGARDLESS...WILL ACTUALLY FEEL
A BIT MUGGY FOR LATE NOVEMBER STANDARDS...WITH DEWPOINTS CLOSE TO
60!  ALSO...THERE IS A LOT OF WIND JUST OFF THE DECK INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  WE COULD SEE GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH DEVELOP EVEN IN THE
INTERIOR...DEPENDING ON IF WE CAN MUSTER ANY PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY NIGHT...

STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL NOT ALLOW WINDS TO DECOUPLE.

THIS COMBINED WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT
IN AN UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE
50S IN MOST LOCATIONS!  MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT A FEW
SPOT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD TUESDAY
- STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TRAVEL IMPACTS
- TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. IN AGREEMENT
WITH WPC: CONTINUED SPREAD OF GUIDANCE UPSTREAM RESULTING IN THE
POOR RESOLVING OF DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS. INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS /
ENSEMBLES STILL UNDECIDED ON THE RELATIVE TRACK / STRENGTH OF DOWN-
STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS
ACROSS THE REGION OF WHICH WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL
ABOUT 2-3 DAYS PRIOR.

NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUE TO WEIGH PREFERENCE UPON THE W-ENVELOPE OF
FORECAST SOLUTIONS. BELIEVE THE 23.6Z / 23.12Z GFS AND THE 23.12Z EC
ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFER THE MOST REASONABLE NE-TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. AGREE WITH WPC
NOTING THERE HAS BEEN A WIDE SPREAD OF EC DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ON
THE W-HALF OF THE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE UKMET...WHILE THE CANADIAN
REMAINS TO THE RIGHT.

EXPECT A MODERATE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL RESULT IN
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON BOTH THE STRENGTH AND THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM. ASIDE...EXPECTING SOME SORT OF RAIN AND / OR SNOW BAND
SOMEWHERE ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL PREFERENCE OF
RAIN OVER COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND SNOWS FOR THE INTERIOR.

THE ONLY CERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM OF
WHICH IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...
INCREASING INTO THE EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM CONCLUDING THURSDAY
MORNING.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY AND MILD. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL BENEATH THE DRY-SLOT REARWARD
OF THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY IN CANADA. AM
EXPECTING BLUSTERY SW-FLOW WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH ALONG THE S-COAST.
WINDS RELAXING INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT FLOW OVERNIGHT COULD MAKE FOR
A GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING SETUP. BUT ANTICIPATING MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE S INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SYNOPTICALLY...SUCCESSIVE PACIFIC-IMPULSES MAINTAIN AN OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH INTO THE GULF. UNDERGOING A NEGATIVE-TILT ACROSS THE E-CONUS
INITIATES AND INTENSIFIES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE N-GULF NE
OVER THE W-ATLANTIC ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET BY
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. NO APPRECIABLE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING SIGNIFIES A
PROGRESSIVE-FLOW PATTERN /+NAO/ RESULTING IN THE ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-
LOW PATTERN ABOVE H7 /LESS EMPHASIS OF A CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WARM
CONVEYER BELT/...WHILE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR REARWARD ACROSS
C-CANADA /+AO/ RESULTING IN THERMAL PROFILES AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK OVER S NEW ENGLAND.

TOWARDS EVENING...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND MODEST
W-COMPONENT OF AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW...AND DRIER AIR N/W INITIALLY...AM
EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL FRONT SETUP.

OVERNIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN AND
LACK OF A CLOSED LOW ABOVE H7...MUCH OF THE EMPHASIS IS WITH THE
ANTI-CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB. NEVERTHELESS A FRONT-END THUMP IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE ASCENT / FORCING PER FRONTOGENESIS NW OF
H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK TROWALING TOWARD
THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG DEEP-LAYER LIFT
THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A SW-NE BAND SIGNATURE
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH WHERE EXACTLY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS IS
THE EXACT TRACK AS WELL AS THE DEPTH / STRENGTH OF THE STORM.

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
JUST BELOW FREEZING UP TO H7 PER THE PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS NOTED
EARLIER...THEN WOULD EXPECT INTERIOR SNOWS /WITH A NEAR 1:10 RATIO/
AND COASTAL RAINS. KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF THE
H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C. THE DIVIDING
LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS. CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE
DOES WEIGH SOME INDICATION PER PROBABILITIES OF > 2 INCHES OF SNOW.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. 23.12Z EC / UKMET CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
WARMER-END OF SOLUTIONS. IF THE 23.12Z GFS / GEFS AND 23.15Z SREF
ARE CORRECT WITH THE TRACK OF THE H85 / SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD /CANADIAN THE FAR E SOLUTION/ THEN
WOULD EXPECT A PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR N/W OF THE I-95/495
CORRIDOR...KEEPING IN MIND THERE IS LIKELY WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN /
SNOW BAND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES THIS FAR OUT IN
THE FORECAST. SO WITH THAT BEING SAID...WILL NOT ISSUE OUT ANY SNOW-
FALL GRAPHICS WITH THIS FORECAST. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO CERTAINTY
AS TO SNOW-OUTCOMES.

CIPS ANALOGS HAVE TONED DOWN ON THE WIND PROBABILITIES. BUT WITH THE
AFOREMENTION MODEL PREFERENCE...WILL NEED TO WATCH THE NE-FLOW OVER
E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH
AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN.

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY. ALL SORTS OF DEPENDENCIES AND INTANGIBLES. ITS A HARD
KNOCK LIFE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

410 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST
THIS EVENING.  CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z AS RAIN MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW END MVFR TO TIMES OF IFR
CONDITIONS.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WITH EVEN A LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW SPOT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  GIVEN A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...FEEL THAT MVFR TO EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MON AFTERNOON.

AS FOR WINDS...A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  FURTHER
INLAND...STILL MAY SEE 30 KNOT GUSTS BUT LLWS AT 1500 FEET WILL BE A
CONCERN.

MONDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL PROBABLY IMPROVE TO VFR AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS EVENING.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.  LLWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.  LLWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS INITIALLY TUESDAY MORNING. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED. POSSIBLE THREATS OF A PLOWABLE SNOW
OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WITH STRONG NE WINDS OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...MAYBE EVEN +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR ANTICIPATED. STORM
IMPACTS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE
STORM AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

LATER-THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

IMPROVING VFR. BUT MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS ON STORM MORPHOLOGY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.


SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS FOR THE EVENING ACROSS MOST WATERS.  HOWEVER...STRONG LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WILL INDUCE A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET BETWEEN 75 AND 85 KNOTS AT 850 MB BY MONDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE...BUT STILL THINK THERE IS
A DECENT SHOT OF SOUTHERLY 35 TO 40 KNOT GUSTS DEVELOPING MONDAY
MORNING.  IN FACT...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALLOW FOR GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING.  GALE WARNINGS HOISTED FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON
HARBOR. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
TUESDAY MORNING...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED PASSING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S
OF NANTUCKET. POSSIBLE THREATS OF STRONG NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...INCLUDING ALL ADJACENT AND OUTER WATERS. HEAVY RAIN
LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. STORM IMPACTS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE MON MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1-2 FT IS
LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.  THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
MINOR FLOOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ020>022.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KGYX 232041
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
341 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS WENT WELL INTO 50S
TODAY, AND TDS CLIMBED TO AROUND 40 IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP THE MINS IN THESE AREAS WELL ABV FREEZING
OVERNIGHT AS WAA RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
THE THE N AND W MANY AREAS ARE INTO THE 40S WITH TDS IN THE UPPER
30S...SO MOST PLACES IN THIS AREA WILL START AS RAIN ALSO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
RADIATE...THEY COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
THE START...GENERALLY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MINS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AROUND 06Z AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS LIKELY TO BEGIN
TO RISE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS AS WARMER TEMPS MIX DOWN. A STEADY
RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND END FROM SW TO
NE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN ERN ZONES...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SOME SCT SHRA. QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A
THIRD TO A HALF INCH. ONCE THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE
AREAS...EXPECTING WARM SECTOR TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF SUN. EVEN WITHOUT
THE SUN...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE SRN
ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST. NERN ZONES WILL STAY COOLER WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO AROUND 50.

500 MB LOW WELL TO OUR NW SLOWS ANDS DEEPENS LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT...AND SFC FRONT AND FLOW ALOFT ALIGN...AND SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST OUT NW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT AS SW FLOW
CONTINUES THRU THE NIGHT. MINS WILL ONLY DROP OFF TO NEAR 50 ON
THE COAST...AND INTO THE 40S INLAND. WILL SEE SCT
SHRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN NRN ZONES.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***COASTAL STORM LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO BUSY
 HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD***

COLD FNT CROSSES THE AREA TUE...WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL THEN STALL OFF THE COAST AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR COASTAL
STORM LATER WED INTO THU.

FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS ENTERING THE DAY 3 TO 4 TIME PERIOD...THERE
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST. WWD SHIFT CONTINUED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE TODAY...AT LEAST
ALLOWING FOR A GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL FALL ACROSS NH
AND WRN ME WED INTO THU. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS
RANGE FROM A COASTAL SCRAPER WITH LIGHT SNWFL NEAR THE COAST...THE
CMC...TO A STRONG LOW PRES CUTTING THRU THE HEART OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND BRINGING MIXING WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...THE ECMWF.

THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE N PACIFIC...WHERE A
TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA S OF AK. THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE
DOWNSTREAM WRN N AMERICA RIDGE. MONITORING THE HEIGHT FIELDS IN
THESE AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
NARROWING DOWN THE FORECAST. HIGHER THAN MODELED HEIGHTS OUT W
COULD LEND SUPPORT TOWARDS THE FARTHER W LOW PRES TRACK ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

ATTM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FEATURES SOME PCPN ALONG THE COAST...SO
HAVE INCREASED POP FURTHER. NOW THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN
PTYPE. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK PLENTY COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY FOR SNWFL FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. AND IF THE ECMWF WERE CORRECT...COULD COME DOWN
QUITE HEAVILY FOR A TIME...BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT FLOODS NWD AND
CHANGES PCPN TO A MIX...RAIN...OR DRY SLOTS ALTOGETHER. GIVEN THAT
IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...A BLEND REMAINS THE BEST FORECAST
OPTION...THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFS PROVIDES A NICE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTION BETWEEN THE CMC AND ECMWF. TIMING DIFFERENCE ARE
MINIMAL...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT PCPN WILL BE MOVING IN QUICKLY
WED EVE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TRAVEL DISRUPTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ESPECIALLY WITH A HIGH VOLUME OF
PEOPLE ON THE ROADS AND AT AIRPORTS.

SECONDARY COLD FNT THEN HIGH PRES FOLLOW FOR FRI...WITH COLDER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING. RAIN MOVES IN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER FROM THE  PRE-DAWN
THRU ABOUT MIDDAY MON. VFR RETURNS DURING MON AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TUE. VFR
CONDITIONS WED GIVE WAY QUICKLY WED EVENING TO IFR OR LOWER AS
SNWFL MOVES NWD UP THE COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE AFTER WED
EVE...AS WARM AIR ALOFT MAY TURN TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN AT THE
COAST. A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS GROWING MORE LIKELY
WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA...BUT HAVE HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY FOR MON INTO MON EVENING AS SW FLOW
INCREASES AND PERSISTS AND PUSHES SEAS TO THE 7-10 FT RANGE.


LONG TERM...GALES ARE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU AS COASTAL STORM
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 232041
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
341 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS WENT WELL INTO 50S
TODAY, AND TDS CLIMBED TO AROUND 40 IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP THE MINS IN THESE AREAS WELL ABV FREEZING
OVERNIGHT AS WAA RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
THE THE N AND W MANY AREAS ARE INTO THE 40S WITH TDS IN THE UPPER
30S...SO MOST PLACES IN THIS AREA WILL START AS RAIN ALSO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
RADIATE...THEY COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
THE START...GENERALLY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MINS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AROUND 06Z AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS LIKELY TO BEGIN
TO RISE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS AS WARMER TEMPS MIX DOWN. A STEADY
RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND END FROM SW TO
NE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN ERN ZONES...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SOME SCT SHRA. QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A
THIRD TO A HALF INCH. ONCE THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE
AREAS...EXPECTING WARM SECTOR TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF SUN. EVEN WITHOUT
THE SUN...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE SRN
ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST. NERN ZONES WILL STAY COOLER WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO AROUND 50.

500 MB LOW WELL TO OUR NW SLOWS ANDS DEEPENS LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT...AND SFC FRONT AND FLOW ALOFT ALIGN...AND SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST OUT NW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT AS SW FLOW
CONTINUES THRU THE NIGHT. MINS WILL ONLY DROP OFF TO NEAR 50 ON
THE COAST...AND INTO THE 40S INLAND. WILL SEE SCT
SHRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN NRN ZONES.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***COASTAL STORM LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO BUSY
 HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD***

COLD FNT CROSSES THE AREA TUE...WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL THEN STALL OFF THE COAST AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR COASTAL
STORM LATER WED INTO THU.

FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS ENTERING THE DAY 3 TO 4 TIME PERIOD...THERE
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST. WWD SHIFT CONTINUED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE TODAY...AT LEAST
ALLOWING FOR A GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL FALL ACROSS NH
AND WRN ME WED INTO THU. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS
RANGE FROM A COASTAL SCRAPER WITH LIGHT SNWFL NEAR THE COAST...THE
CMC...TO A STRONG LOW PRES CUTTING THRU THE HEART OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND BRINGING MIXING WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...THE ECMWF.

THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE N PACIFIC...WHERE A
TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA S OF AK. THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE
DOWNSTREAM WRN N AMERICA RIDGE. MONITORING THE HEIGHT FIELDS IN
THESE AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
NARROWING DOWN THE FORECAST. HIGHER THAN MODELED HEIGHTS OUT W
COULD LEND SUPPORT TOWARDS THE FARTHER W LOW PRES TRACK ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

ATTM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FEATURES SOME PCPN ALONG THE COAST...SO
HAVE INCREASED POP FURTHER. NOW THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN
PTYPE. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK PLENTY COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY FOR SNWFL FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. AND IF THE ECMWF WERE CORRECT...COULD COME DOWN
QUITE HEAVILY FOR A TIME...BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT FLOODS NWD AND
CHANGES PCPN TO A MIX...RAIN...OR DRY SLOTS ALTOGETHER. GIVEN THAT
IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...A BLEND REMAINS THE BEST FORECAST
OPTION...THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFS PROVIDES A NICE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTION BETWEEN THE CMC AND ECMWF. TIMING DIFFERENCE ARE
MINIMAL...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT PCPN WILL BE MOVING IN QUICKLY
WED EVE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TRAVEL DISRUPTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ESPECIALLY WITH A HIGH VOLUME OF
PEOPLE ON THE ROADS AND AT AIRPORTS.

SECONDARY COLD FNT THEN HIGH PRES FOLLOW FOR FRI...WITH COLDER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING. RAIN MOVES IN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER FROM THE  PRE-DAWN
THRU ABOUT MIDDAY MON. VFR RETURNS DURING MON AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TUE. VFR
CONDITIONS WED GIVE WAY QUICKLY WED EVENING TO IFR OR LOWER AS
SNWFL MOVES NWD UP THE COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE AFTER WED
EVE...AS WARM AIR ALOFT MAY TURN TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN AT THE
COAST. A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS GROWING MORE LIKELY
WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA...BUT HAVE HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY FOR MON INTO MON EVENING AS SW FLOW
INCREASES AND PERSISTS AND PUSHES SEAS TO THE 7-10 FT RANGE.


LONG TERM...GALES ARE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU AS COASTAL STORM
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 232041
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
341 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS WENT WELL INTO 50S
TODAY, AND TDS CLIMBED TO AROUND 40 IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP THE MINS IN THESE AREAS WELL ABV FREEZING
OVERNIGHT AS WAA RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
THE THE N AND W MANY AREAS ARE INTO THE 40S WITH TDS IN THE UPPER
30S...SO MOST PLACES IN THIS AREA WILL START AS RAIN ALSO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
RADIATE...THEY COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
THE START...GENERALLY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MINS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AROUND 06Z AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS LIKELY TO BEGIN
TO RISE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS AS WARMER TEMPS MIX DOWN. A STEADY
RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND END FROM SW TO
NE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN ERN ZONES...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SOME SCT SHRA. QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A
THIRD TO A HALF INCH. ONCE THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE
AREAS...EXPECTING WARM SECTOR TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF SUN. EVEN WITHOUT
THE SUN...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE SRN
ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST. NERN ZONES WILL STAY COOLER WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO AROUND 50.

500 MB LOW WELL TO OUR NW SLOWS ANDS DEEPENS LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT...AND SFC FRONT AND FLOW ALOFT ALIGN...AND SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST OUT NW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT AS SW FLOW
CONTINUES THRU THE NIGHT. MINS WILL ONLY DROP OFF TO NEAR 50 ON
THE COAST...AND INTO THE 40S INLAND. WILL SEE SCT
SHRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN NRN ZONES.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***COASTAL STORM LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO BUSY
 HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD***

COLD FNT CROSSES THE AREA TUE...WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL THEN STALL OFF THE COAST AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR COASTAL
STORM LATER WED INTO THU.

FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS ENTERING THE DAY 3 TO 4 TIME PERIOD...THERE
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST. WWD SHIFT CONTINUED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE TODAY...AT LEAST
ALLOWING FOR A GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL FALL ACROSS NH
AND WRN ME WED INTO THU. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS
RANGE FROM A COASTAL SCRAPER WITH LIGHT SNWFL NEAR THE COAST...THE
CMC...TO A STRONG LOW PRES CUTTING THRU THE HEART OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND BRINGING MIXING WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...THE ECMWF.

THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE N PACIFIC...WHERE A
TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA S OF AK. THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE
DOWNSTREAM WRN N AMERICA RIDGE. MONITORING THE HEIGHT FIELDS IN
THESE AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
NARROWING DOWN THE FORECAST. HIGHER THAN MODELED HEIGHTS OUT W
COULD LEND SUPPORT TOWARDS THE FARTHER W LOW PRES TRACK ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

ATTM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FEATURES SOME PCPN ALONG THE COAST...SO
HAVE INCREASED POP FURTHER. NOW THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN
PTYPE. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK PLENTY COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY FOR SNWFL FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. AND IF THE ECMWF WERE CORRECT...COULD COME DOWN
QUITE HEAVILY FOR A TIME...BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT FLOODS NWD AND
CHANGES PCPN TO A MIX...RAIN...OR DRY SLOTS ALTOGETHER. GIVEN THAT
IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...A BLEND REMAINS THE BEST FORECAST
OPTION...THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFS PROVIDES A NICE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTION BETWEEN THE CMC AND ECMWF. TIMING DIFFERENCE ARE
MINIMAL...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT PCPN WILL BE MOVING IN QUICKLY
WED EVE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TRAVEL DISRUPTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ESPECIALLY WITH A HIGH VOLUME OF
PEOPLE ON THE ROADS AND AT AIRPORTS.

SECONDARY COLD FNT THEN HIGH PRES FOLLOW FOR FRI...WITH COLDER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING. RAIN MOVES IN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER FROM THE  PRE-DAWN
THRU ABOUT MIDDAY MON. VFR RETURNS DURING MON AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TUE. VFR
CONDITIONS WED GIVE WAY QUICKLY WED EVENING TO IFR OR LOWER AS
SNWFL MOVES NWD UP THE COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE AFTER WED
EVE...AS WARM AIR ALOFT MAY TURN TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN AT THE
COAST. A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS GROWING MORE LIKELY
WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA...BUT HAVE HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY FOR MON INTO MON EVENING AS SW FLOW
INCREASES AND PERSISTS AND PUSHES SEAS TO THE 7-10 FT RANGE.


LONG TERM...GALES ARE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU AS COASTAL STORM
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 232041
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
341 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS WENT WELL INTO 50S
TODAY, AND TDS CLIMBED TO AROUND 40 IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP THE MINS IN THESE AREAS WELL ABV FREEZING
OVERNIGHT AS WAA RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
THE THE N AND W MANY AREAS ARE INTO THE 40S WITH TDS IN THE UPPER
30S...SO MOST PLACES IN THIS AREA WILL START AS RAIN ALSO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
RADIATE...THEY COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
THE START...GENERALLY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MINS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AROUND 06Z AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS LIKELY TO BEGIN
TO RISE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS AS WARMER TEMPS MIX DOWN. A STEADY
RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND END FROM SW TO
NE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN ERN ZONES...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SOME SCT SHRA. QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A
THIRD TO A HALF INCH. ONCE THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE
AREAS...EXPECTING WARM SECTOR TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF SUN. EVEN WITHOUT
THE SUN...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE SRN
ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST. NERN ZONES WILL STAY COOLER WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO AROUND 50.

500 MB LOW WELL TO OUR NW SLOWS ANDS DEEPENS LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT...AND SFC FRONT AND FLOW ALOFT ALIGN...AND SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST OUT NW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT AS SW FLOW
CONTINUES THRU THE NIGHT. MINS WILL ONLY DROP OFF TO NEAR 50 ON
THE COAST...AND INTO THE 40S INLAND. WILL SEE SCT
SHRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN NRN ZONES.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***COASTAL STORM LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO BUSY
 HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD***

COLD FNT CROSSES THE AREA TUE...WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL THEN STALL OFF THE COAST AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR COASTAL
STORM LATER WED INTO THU.

FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS ENTERING THE DAY 3 TO 4 TIME PERIOD...THERE
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST. WWD SHIFT CONTINUED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE TODAY...AT LEAST
ALLOWING FOR A GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL FALL ACROSS NH
AND WRN ME WED INTO THU. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS
RANGE FROM A COASTAL SCRAPER WITH LIGHT SNWFL NEAR THE COAST...THE
CMC...TO A STRONG LOW PRES CUTTING THRU THE HEART OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND BRINGING MIXING WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...THE ECMWF.

THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE N PACIFIC...WHERE A
TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA S OF AK. THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE
DOWNSTREAM WRN N AMERICA RIDGE. MONITORING THE HEIGHT FIELDS IN
THESE AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
NARROWING DOWN THE FORECAST. HIGHER THAN MODELED HEIGHTS OUT W
COULD LEND SUPPORT TOWARDS THE FARTHER W LOW PRES TRACK ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

ATTM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FEATURES SOME PCPN ALONG THE COAST...SO
HAVE INCREASED POP FURTHER. NOW THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN
PTYPE. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK PLENTY COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY FOR SNWFL FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. AND IF THE ECMWF WERE CORRECT...COULD COME DOWN
QUITE HEAVILY FOR A TIME...BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT FLOODS NWD AND
CHANGES PCPN TO A MIX...RAIN...OR DRY SLOTS ALTOGETHER. GIVEN THAT
IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...A BLEND REMAINS THE BEST FORECAST
OPTION...THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFS PROVIDES A NICE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTION BETWEEN THE CMC AND ECMWF. TIMING DIFFERENCE ARE
MINIMAL...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT PCPN WILL BE MOVING IN QUICKLY
WED EVE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TRAVEL DISRUPTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ESPECIALLY WITH A HIGH VOLUME OF
PEOPLE ON THE ROADS AND AT AIRPORTS.

SECONDARY COLD FNT THEN HIGH PRES FOLLOW FOR FRI...WITH COLDER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING. RAIN MOVES IN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER FROM THE  PRE-DAWN
THRU ABOUT MIDDAY MON. VFR RETURNS DURING MON AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TUE. VFR
CONDITIONS WED GIVE WAY QUICKLY WED EVENING TO IFR OR LOWER AS
SNWFL MOVES NWD UP THE COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE AFTER WED
EVE...AS WARM AIR ALOFT MAY TURN TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN AT THE
COAST. A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS GROWING MORE LIKELY
WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA...BUT HAVE HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY FOR MON INTO MON EVENING AS SW FLOW
INCREASES AND PERSISTS AND PUSHES SEAS TO THE 7-10 FT RANGE.


LONG TERM...GALES ARE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU AS COASTAL STORM
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231808
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
208 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MILD TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS BUT DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM MAY BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY. COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

BEAUTIFUL DAY IN PROGRESS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES.  HIGHS WILL TOP OUT WELL UP INTO THE 50S...TO AROUND
60 ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  GUIDANCE UNDERDONE ON TEMPS WHICH
MAKES SENSE SINCE 850 MB TEMPS ARE AROUND +5C WITH AT LEAST SOME
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GT
LAKES LATE TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE S. GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ENHANCED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. GEFS
SHOWING PWAT ANOMALY INCREASING TO +3SD AND LOW LEVEL JET REACHES
+4SD IN SNE AROUND 12Z MON SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND WE ARE ONLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
0.50-1.00" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MAIN THREAT IS TYPICAL
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING BUT THIS WILL BE OCCURRING DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
MON MORNING AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MONDAY MORNING
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. NAM IS MOST ROBUST WITH THE LOW LEVEL
NEARING 75 KT AT 925 MB WHILE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING 65-70 KT.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD INVERSION WHICH WILL LIMIT THESE WINDS FROM
MIXING DOWN. A FINE LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH COULD HELP TO BRING
DOWN THESE WINDS TO THE SFC IS NOT LIKELY AS INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL AND THERE IS NOT A COLD FRONT WHICH TYPICALLY PROVIDES A
FOCUS FOR THESE FINE LINES. TAKING ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THE JET
SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK AT 40-45 MPH WHICH IS NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. BEST CHANCE OF REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL
BE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...EARLIER IN WESTERN
NEW ENG...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS WILL
APPROACH 60 WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS TO 30-35 MPH IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. 925 MB TEMPS ARE QUITE MILD NEAR +15C WHICH WOULD NORMALLY
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S BUT THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
HEATING. IF WE CAN GET ANY SUN...70+ WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MILD BUT WINDY ON TUESDAY
* COASTAL STORM WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE WED-THU WITH UNCERTAINTY
* COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
23.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID TERM PERIOD...INCLUDING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
LONGWAVE TROF BY MID- LATE WEEK ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
THE PRIMARY MODEL ISSUES AND DISAGREEMENTS ARE STILL REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED-THU. THIS DISAGREEMENT IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL WRAPPED IN THE NEAR
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS LOW...AND MAY NOT BE BETTER SAMPLED FOR ANOTHER
24+ HOURS. AGREE WITH WPC...THE KEY WILL BE WHERE THE LOW PASSES
IN REGARD TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WITH THE GFS LEANING ABOUT
50-100 NM E AND THE ECMWF CLOSER TO BUT W OF IT. ECENS MEAN SEEMS
TO SPLIT THIS DIFFERENCE WELL...AND GIVEN WPC/S PREFERENCE FOR IT
AS WELL...WILL LEAN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS UPDATE CLOSER TO
IT/S THINKING...ALTHOUGH ESSENTIALLY THIS IS CLOSE TO A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND IN SPITE OF THE FACT THE ECMWF IS WELL W OF THE BENCHMARK.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STORM ITSELF...HOW EFFICIENTLY IT
IS ABLE TO DRAW IN THE COLDER AIR FROM THE LONGWAVE TROF TO THE W
REMAINS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT A TREND TOWARD COLDER CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...
MAINLY DRY FORECAST HERE ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY MON NIGHT AS UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH
ALONG WITH WEAKENING COLD FRONT. COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W AND SO
IN SPITE OF COLD ADVECTION W-FLOW...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR TO
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WED INTO THU...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY HERE FOR
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT
PLAY. IN ANY CASE...DO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN A MORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE SE MA
COASTLINE...MAKING IT/S CLOSEST PASS ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT...DIPPING BELOW 1000MB. THE EXACT TRACK IS THE MAIN QUESTION
AND AS SUCH...WHAT THE THERMAL PROFILE IS MOST LIKELY TO LOOK
LIKE. AT THIS TIME...0C H92 LINE VARIES BETWEEN JUST W OF THE BOS-
PVD CORRIDOR TO OFFSHORE...SO EXACTLY WHERE ANY RAIN/SNOW LINE
DEVELOPS REMAIN IN FLUX. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AS POINTED OUT BY THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WETBULB/DYNAMIC COOLING ARE LIKELY TO LEAD
TO COOLER TEMPS THAN THE STRAIGHT 2M MODEL TEMPS WOULD
INDICATE...SO EVEN WITH THE FURTHER E TRACK...SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
HOW MUCH IS JUST TOO UNCERTAIN TO CALL GIVEN NOT JUST THE THERMAL
PROFILE ISSUES... THERE IS A BANDING SIGNAL AND TROWAL SIGNATURE
TOWARD THE NE QUADRANT. WHICH COULD PROVIDE DYNAMIC COOLING.

WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR A COASTAL
STORM...WITH WINTERY PRECIP AND POSSIBLY EVEN PLOWABLE SNOW
DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK FOR THE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THANKSGIVING MORNING TIMEFRAME.  EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW AND WHERE
RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP REMAINS IN QUESTION. BUT PRECIP IS LIKELY TO
LEAN E GIVEN SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN ON THE RAIN SIDE AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS IF THE TRACK IS CLOSER.  COULD ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT
GRADIENT BETWEEN WRN MA/CT/NH AND EARN MA/RI IN SNOW/RAINFALL.
ALSO...AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...COASTAL FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN THE RAPID MOVEMENT /LACK OF DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING/ AND LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. ALL THESE FEATURES WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THEY WILL BEGIN DURING A VERY BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD
ON WED.

FRI...
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW
PRES...EXPECT A TREND TOWARD DRIER BUT COLDER WEATHER BY LATE IN
THE WEEK.

NEXT WEEKEND...
AS CORE OF COLD AIR TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OVER...EXPECT TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES/CLIPPER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST
THIS EVENING.  CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z AS RAIN MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW END MVFR TO TIMES OF
IFR CONDITIONS.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WITH EVEN A LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW SPOT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  GIVEN A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...FEEL THAT MVFR TO EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MON AFTERNOON.

AS FOR WINDS...A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  FURTHER
INLAND...STILL MAY SEE 30 KNOT GUSTS BUT LLWS AT 1500 FEET WILL BE A
CONCERN.

MONDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL PROBABLY IMPROVE TO VFR AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS EVENING.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.  LLWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.  LLWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK MONDAY

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. BUT A
FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT ESPECIALLY MAY YIELD MVFR
CONDITIONS.  W-SW WIND GUSTS ABOUT 20-25 KT AT TIMES EACH DAY.

WED INTO THU...LOW CONFIDENCE.  A COASTAL LOW PRES WILL MOVE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN JUST ONSHORE OF SE MA OR OFFSHORE.  GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW/RAIN
POTENTIAL...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EACH WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW. NE WINDS COULD ALSO GUST 25+ OR MORE EITHER DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SW GUSTS 25-30 KT SE WATERS EARLY...OTHERWISE DIMINISHING WIND
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN GUSTY S WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS WHICH WILL
LIKELY LIMIT GUSTS AND PREVENT STRONG WINDS FROM MIXING
DOWN. HOWEVER GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE JET...GALE FORCE GUSTS TO
35-40 KT SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS
WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH VERY LONG FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS MAINLY SW-W AND GUSTS 25-30 KT
INTO EARLY TUE.  SEAS ALSO AROUND 8-10 FT.  BOTH WINDS AND SEAS DROP
OFF LATE TUE TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF LULL EXPECTED INTO EARLY WED.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ON TUE.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
NEAR 40N/70W...THIS WILL YIELD BUILDING SWELL AND WINDS SHIFTING
FROM NE LATE WED TO WNW BY LATE THU.  DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE
STORM COMES...HEAVY RAIN AND AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  GALES ALSO A POSSIBILITY.  VISIBILITIES
DROP IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE MON MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1-2
FT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHICH MAY BRING SOME
LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE
TO SOUTHERLY FETCH. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231808
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
208 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MILD TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS BUT DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM MAY BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY. COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

BEAUTIFUL DAY IN PROGRESS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES.  HIGHS WILL TOP OUT WELL UP INTO THE 50S...TO AROUND
60 ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  GUIDANCE UNDERDONE ON TEMPS WHICH
MAKES SENSE SINCE 850 MB TEMPS ARE AROUND +5C WITH AT LEAST SOME
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GT
LAKES LATE TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE S. GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ENHANCED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. GEFS
SHOWING PWAT ANOMALY INCREASING TO +3SD AND LOW LEVEL JET REACHES
+4SD IN SNE AROUND 12Z MON SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND WE ARE ONLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
0.50-1.00" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MAIN THREAT IS TYPICAL
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING BUT THIS WILL BE OCCURRING DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
MON MORNING AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MONDAY MORNING
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. NAM IS MOST ROBUST WITH THE LOW LEVEL
NEARING 75 KT AT 925 MB WHILE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING 65-70 KT.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD INVERSION WHICH WILL LIMIT THESE WINDS FROM
MIXING DOWN. A FINE LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH COULD HELP TO BRING
DOWN THESE WINDS TO THE SFC IS NOT LIKELY AS INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL AND THERE IS NOT A COLD FRONT WHICH TYPICALLY PROVIDES A
FOCUS FOR THESE FINE LINES. TAKING ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THE JET
SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK AT 40-45 MPH WHICH IS NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. BEST CHANCE OF REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL
BE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...EARLIER IN WESTERN
NEW ENG...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS WILL
APPROACH 60 WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS TO 30-35 MPH IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. 925 MB TEMPS ARE QUITE MILD NEAR +15C WHICH WOULD NORMALLY
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S BUT THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
HEATING. IF WE CAN GET ANY SUN...70+ WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MILD BUT WINDY ON TUESDAY
* COASTAL STORM WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE WED-THU WITH UNCERTAINTY
* COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
23.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID TERM PERIOD...INCLUDING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
LONGWAVE TROF BY MID- LATE WEEK ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
THE PRIMARY MODEL ISSUES AND DISAGREEMENTS ARE STILL REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED-THU. THIS DISAGREEMENT IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL WRAPPED IN THE NEAR
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS LOW...AND MAY NOT BE BETTER SAMPLED FOR ANOTHER
24+ HOURS. AGREE WITH WPC...THE KEY WILL BE WHERE THE LOW PASSES
IN REGARD TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WITH THE GFS LEANING ABOUT
50-100 NM E AND THE ECMWF CLOSER TO BUT W OF IT. ECENS MEAN SEEMS
TO SPLIT THIS DIFFERENCE WELL...AND GIVEN WPC/S PREFERENCE FOR IT
AS WELL...WILL LEAN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS UPDATE CLOSER TO
IT/S THINKING...ALTHOUGH ESSENTIALLY THIS IS CLOSE TO A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND IN SPITE OF THE FACT THE ECMWF IS WELL W OF THE BENCHMARK.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STORM ITSELF...HOW EFFICIENTLY IT
IS ABLE TO DRAW IN THE COLDER AIR FROM THE LONGWAVE TROF TO THE W
REMAINS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT A TREND TOWARD COLDER CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...
MAINLY DRY FORECAST HERE ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY MON NIGHT AS UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH
ALONG WITH WEAKENING COLD FRONT. COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W AND SO
IN SPITE OF COLD ADVECTION W-FLOW...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR TO
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WED INTO THU...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY HERE FOR
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT
PLAY. IN ANY CASE...DO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN A MORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE SE MA
COASTLINE...MAKING IT/S CLOSEST PASS ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT...DIPPING BELOW 1000MB. THE EXACT TRACK IS THE MAIN QUESTION
AND AS SUCH...WHAT THE THERMAL PROFILE IS MOST LIKELY TO LOOK
LIKE. AT THIS TIME...0C H92 LINE VARIES BETWEEN JUST W OF THE BOS-
PVD CORRIDOR TO OFFSHORE...SO EXACTLY WHERE ANY RAIN/SNOW LINE
DEVELOPS REMAIN IN FLUX. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AS POINTED OUT BY THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WETBULB/DYNAMIC COOLING ARE LIKELY TO LEAD
TO COOLER TEMPS THAN THE STRAIGHT 2M MODEL TEMPS WOULD
INDICATE...SO EVEN WITH THE FURTHER E TRACK...SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
HOW MUCH IS JUST TOO UNCERTAIN TO CALL GIVEN NOT JUST THE THERMAL
PROFILE ISSUES... THERE IS A BANDING SIGNAL AND TROWAL SIGNATURE
TOWARD THE NE QUADRANT. WHICH COULD PROVIDE DYNAMIC COOLING.

WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR A COASTAL
STORM...WITH WINTERY PRECIP AND POSSIBLY EVEN PLOWABLE SNOW
DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK FOR THE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THANKSGIVING MORNING TIMEFRAME.  EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW AND WHERE
RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP REMAINS IN QUESTION. BUT PRECIP IS LIKELY TO
LEAN E GIVEN SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN ON THE RAIN SIDE AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS IF THE TRACK IS CLOSER.  COULD ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT
GRADIENT BETWEEN WRN MA/CT/NH AND EARN MA/RI IN SNOW/RAINFALL.
ALSO...AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...COASTAL FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN THE RAPID MOVEMENT /LACK OF DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING/ AND LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. ALL THESE FEATURES WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THEY WILL BEGIN DURING A VERY BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD
ON WED.

FRI...
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW
PRES...EXPECT A TREND TOWARD DRIER BUT COLDER WEATHER BY LATE IN
THE WEEK.

NEXT WEEKEND...
AS CORE OF COLD AIR TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OVER...EXPECT TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES/CLIPPER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST
THIS EVENING.  CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z AS RAIN MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW END MVFR TO TIMES OF
IFR CONDITIONS.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WITH EVEN A LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW SPOT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  GIVEN A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...FEEL THAT MVFR TO EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MON AFTERNOON.

AS FOR WINDS...A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  FURTHER
INLAND...STILL MAY SEE 30 KNOT GUSTS BUT LLWS AT 1500 FEET WILL BE A
CONCERN.

MONDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL PROBABLY IMPROVE TO VFR AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS EVENING.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.  LLWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.  LLWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK MONDAY

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. BUT A
FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT ESPECIALLY MAY YIELD MVFR
CONDITIONS.  W-SW WIND GUSTS ABOUT 20-25 KT AT TIMES EACH DAY.

WED INTO THU...LOW CONFIDENCE.  A COASTAL LOW PRES WILL MOVE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN JUST ONSHORE OF SE MA OR OFFSHORE.  GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW/RAIN
POTENTIAL...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EACH WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW. NE WINDS COULD ALSO GUST 25+ OR MORE EITHER DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SW GUSTS 25-30 KT SE WATERS EARLY...OTHERWISE DIMINISHING WIND
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN GUSTY S WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS WHICH WILL
LIKELY LIMIT GUSTS AND PREVENT STRONG WINDS FROM MIXING
DOWN. HOWEVER GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE JET...GALE FORCE GUSTS TO
35-40 KT SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS
WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH VERY LONG FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS MAINLY SW-W AND GUSTS 25-30 KT
INTO EARLY TUE.  SEAS ALSO AROUND 8-10 FT.  BOTH WINDS AND SEAS DROP
OFF LATE TUE TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF LULL EXPECTED INTO EARLY WED.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ON TUE.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
NEAR 40N/70W...THIS WILL YIELD BUILDING SWELL AND WINDS SHIFTING
FROM NE LATE WED TO WNW BY LATE THU.  DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE
STORM COMES...HEAVY RAIN AND AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  GALES ALSO A POSSIBILITY.  VISIBILITIES
DROP IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE MON MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1-2
FT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHICH MAY BRING SOME
LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE
TO SOUTHERLY FETCH. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC



000
FXUS61 KGYX 231631
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1131 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1130 AM...DOWNSLOPE REALLY KICKING IN ON THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND GOOD WARMING. TEMPS ALREADY IN THE LOW 50S
MANY SPOTS, AND WILL PROBABLY ADD A FEW MORE  TO THAT FOR HIGHS.
OTHERWISE CLOUDS LINGER IN THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE BREAKS OF SUN THAN THIS MORNING.

930 AM...THIS UPDATES REMOVES POPS FOR ALL BUT A FEW FLURRIES OR
SPKLES IN THE MTNS THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING. OTHERWISE
UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL KEEP THE COASTAL PLAIN MORE ON THE
SUNNY SIDE...AND HOLD MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS IN THE MTNS. IT WILL
ALSO BE MILD WITH HIGHS AROUND 50 ON THE COAST AND IN INTERIOR S
NH. 40S ELSEWHERE.

PREV DISC...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER HAS WARMED SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST WAVE OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ON NWS RADAR MOSAIC WAS ENTERING
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AS OF 07Z. THIS AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND
EXIT THE COAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED IMPULSE THIS MORNING. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE GREATLY REDUCED...THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINE HAS BEEN DROPPED WITH THE 3 AM
FORECAST PACKAGE. BEHIND THE IMPULSE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS
WILL ACTUALLY BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW 50 DEGREE NUMBERS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE SHORT LIVED...AS THE NEXT IMPULSE
AND ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST VERTICAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT A FEW
NORTHERN INTERIOR VALLEYS COULD SEE SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
DRIZZLE FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S.

OCCASIONAL RAIN AND MILD ON MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT PRESSES NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RAIN DIMINISHING TO DRIZZLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A RATHER BREEZY AND BALMY DAY WITH HIGHS OF 50 TO 60
AVERAGING A FULL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE COLDER
AIR BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. A FEW
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE A DRY DAY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A POTENT COASTAL
STORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WEDNESDAY/ THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY BREAK... IF THIS DOES COME TO FRUITION WE EXPECT MAJOR
INTERRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO GET TO THEIR
DESTINATIONS EARLY IF POSSIBLE. POPS WERE INCREASED BUT NOT OVERLY
SO TO MAKE ROOM FOR POSSIBLE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING.

LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO FALL EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG WARM FRONT COMES ONSHORE. NORTH OF THE
FRONT... FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR SNOW
TO FALL. AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY NORTH... SO WILL THE WARMER
AIR ALLOWING SNOW TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM... WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THIS WILL BE
A TRAVEL HAZARD ONLY IN THAT IT WILL BE A STEADY... PERSISTENT
RAINFALL ON A HEAVY TRAVEL DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN A BAND CENTERED NEAR
THE COAST... WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM LONG ISLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND THURSDAY
MORNING AND PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MIDCOAST AND THE
NORTH. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD FALL JUST INLAND FROM NEAR
FARMINGTON TO NEAR BANGOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE REAL
COLD AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS ARCTIC AIR TO SETTLE IN FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...AREAS OF MVFR TODAY IN CEILINGS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR DEVELOPS MONDAY MORNING WITH WARM FRONTAL RAINS
WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. VFR MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT MTN MVFR IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...IFR TO LIFR IN SNOW OR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND THEN VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... WINDS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AND THE
GALE HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT UNTIL 18Z
TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES WITH
A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231529
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1030 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY AND MILD TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS BUT DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM MAY BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY. COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

THE LAST OF THE LIGHT SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS WERE EXITING THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  OTHERWISE...TEMPORARY MID LEVEL
RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND MILD WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.  GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
+5C...FEEL GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPS ARE A BIT TOO COOL.  HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.  WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...SO IT WILL FEEL QUITE COMFORTABLE
OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AFTER THE RECENT COLD WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GT
LAKES LATE TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE S. GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ENHANCED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. GEFS
SHOWING PWAT ANOMALY INCREASING TO +3SD AND LOW LEVEL JET REACHES
+4SD IN SNE AROUND 12Z MON SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND WE ARE ONLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
0.50-1.00" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MAIN THREAT IS TYPICAL
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING BUT THIS WILL BE OCCURRING DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
MON MORNING AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MONDAY MORNING
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. NAM IS MOST ROBUST WITH THE LOW LEVEL
NEARING 75 KT AT 925 MB WHILE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING 65-70 KT.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD INVERSION WHICH WILL LIMIT THESE WINDS FROM
MIXING DOWN. A FINE LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH COULD HELP TO BRING
DOWN THESE WINDS TO THE SFC IS NOT LIKELY AS INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL AND THERE IS NOT A COLD FRONT WHICH TYPICALLY PROVIDES A
FOCUS FOR THESE FINE LINES. TAKING ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THE JET
SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK AT 40-45 MPH WHICH IS NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. BEST CHANCE OF REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL
BE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...EARLIER IN WESTERN
NEW ENG...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS WILL
APPROACH 60 WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS TO 30-35 MPH IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. 925 MB TEMPS ARE QUITE MILD NEAR +15C WHICH WOULD NORMALLY
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S BUT THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
HEATING. IF WE CAN GET ANY SUN...70+ WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MILD BUT WINDY ON TUESDAY
* COASTAL STORM WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE WED-THU WITH UNCERTAINTY
* COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
23.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID TERM PERIOD...INCLUDING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
LONGWAVE TROF BY MID- LATE WEEK ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
THE PRIMARY MODEL ISSUES AND DISAGREEMENTS ARE STILL REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED-THU. THIS DISAGREEMENT IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL WRAPPED IN THE NEAR
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS LOW...AND MAY NOT BE BETTER SAMPLED FOR ANOTHER
24+ HOURS. AGREE WITH WPC...THE KEY WILL BE WHERE THE LOW PASSES
IN REGARD TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WITH THE GFS LEANING ABOUT
50-100 NM E AND THE ECMWF CLOSER TO BUT W OF IT. ECENS MEAN SEEMS
TO SPLIT THIS DIFFERENCE WELL...AND GIVEN WPC/S PREFERENCE FOR IT
AS WELL...WILL LEAN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS UPDATE CLOSER TO
IT/S THINKING...ALTHOUGH ESSENTIALLY THIS IS CLOSE TO A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND IN SPITE OF THE FACT THE ECMWF IS WELL W OF THE BENCHMARK.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STORM ITSELF...HOW EFFICIENTLY IT
IS ABLE TO DRAW IN THE COLDER AIR FROM THE LONGWAVE TROF TO THE W
REMAINS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT A TREND TOWARD COLDER CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...
MAINLY DRY FORECAST HERE ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY MON NIGHT AS UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH
ALONG WITH WEAKENING COLD FRONT. COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W AND SO
IN SPITE OF COLD ADVECTION W-FLOW...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR TO
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WED INTO THU...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY HERE FOR
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT
PLAY. IN ANY CASE...DO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN A MORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE SE MA
COASTLINE...MAKING IT/S CLOSEST PASS ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT...DIPPING BELOW 1000MB. THE EXACT TRACK IS THE MAIN QUESTION
AND AS SUCH...WHAT THE THERMAL PROFILE IS MOST LIKELY TO LOOK
LIKE. AT THIS TIME...0C H92 LINE VARIES BETWEEN JUST W OF THE BOS-
PVD CORRIDOR TO OFFSHORE...SO EXACTLY WHERE ANY RAIN/SNOW LINE
DEVELOPS REMAIN IN FLUX. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AS POINTED OUT BY THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WETBULB/DYNAMIC COOLING ARE LIKELY TO LEAD
TO COOLER TEMPS THAN THE STRAIGHT 2M MODEL TEMPS WOULD
INDICATE...SO EVEN WITH THE FURTHER E TRACK...SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
HOW MUCH IS JUST TOO UNCERTAIN TO CALL GIVEN NOT JUST THE THERMAL
PROFILE ISSUES... THERE IS A BANDING SIGNAL AND TROWAL SIGNATURE
TOWARD THE NE QUADRANT. WHICH COULD PROVIDE DYNAMIC COOLING.

WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR A COASTAL
STORM...WITH WINTERY PRECIP AND POSSIBLY EVEN PLOWABLE SNOW
DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK FOR THE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THANKSGIVING MORNING TIMEFRAME.  EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW AND WHERE
RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP REMAINS IN QUESTION. BUT PRECIP IS LIKELY TO
LEAN E GIVEN SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN ON THE RAIN SIDE AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS IF THE TRACK IS CLOSER.  COULD ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT
GRADIENT BETWEEN WRN MA/CT/NH AND EARN MA/RI IN SNOW/RAINFALL.
ALSO...AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...COASTAL FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN THE RAPID MOVEMENT /LACK OF DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING/ AND LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. ALL THESE FEATURES WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THEY WILL BEGIN DURING A VERY BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD
ON WED.

FRI...
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW
PRES...EXPECT A TREND TOWARD DRIER BUT COLDER WEATHER BY LATE IN
THE WEEK.

NEXT WEEKEND...
AS CORE OF COLD AIR TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OVER...EXPECT TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES/CLIPPER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

15Z UPDATE...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DESPITE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR-IFR AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY
HEAVY MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING AROUND 06Z
CT VALLEY AND REACHING E COAST BY 10Z. ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE MON
MORNING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. RAIN TAPERS OFF 12-16Z W TO E BUT
IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE IN. A PERIOD OF S WIND GUSTS TO
30-40 KT POSSIBLE 12-16Z MON ALONG THE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS...THEN SW GUSTS TO 30 KT COASTAL PLAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT CT VALLEY
SHIFTING TO SE NEW ENG MON MORNING AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
50-60 KT DEVELOPS AT 2K FT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. BUT A
FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT ESPECIALLY MAY YIELD MVFR
CONDITIONS.  W-SW WIND GUSTS ABOUT 20-25 KT AT TIMES EACH DAY.

WED INTO THU...LOW CONFIDENCE.  A COASTAL LOW PRES WILL MOVE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN JUST ONSHORE OF SE MA OR OFFSHORE.  GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW/RAIN
POTENTIAL...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EACH WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW. NE WINDS COULD ALSO GUST 25+ OR MORE EITHER DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SW GUSTS 25-30 KT SE WATERS EARLY...OTHERWISE DIMINISHING WIND
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN GUSTY S WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS WHICH WILL
LIKELY LIMIT GUSTS AND PREVENT STRONG WINDS FROM MIXING
DOWN. HOWEVER GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE JET...GALE FORCE GUSTS TO
35-40 KT SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS
WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH VERY LONG FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS MAINLY SW-W AND GUSTS 25-30 KT
INTO EARLY TUE.  SEAS ALSO AROUND 8-10 FT.  BOTH WINDS AND SEAS DROP
OFF LATE TUE TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF LULL EXPECTED INTO EARLY WED.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ON TUE.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
NEAR 40N/70W...THIS WILL YIELD BUILDING SWELL AND WINDS SHIFTING
FROM NE LATE WED TO WNW BY LATE THU.  DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE
STORM COMES...HEAVY RAIN AND AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  GALES ALSO A POSSIBILITY.  VISIBILITIES
DROP IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE MON MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1-2
FT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHICH MAY BRING SOME
LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE
TO SOUTHERLY FETCH. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231529
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1030 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY AND MILD TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS BUT DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM MAY BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY. COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

THE LAST OF THE LIGHT SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS WERE EXITING THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  OTHERWISE...TEMPORARY MID LEVEL
RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND MILD WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.  GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
+5C...FEEL GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPS ARE A BIT TOO COOL.  HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.  WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...SO IT WILL FEEL QUITE COMFORTABLE
OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AFTER THE RECENT COLD WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GT
LAKES LATE TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE S. GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ENHANCED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. GEFS
SHOWING PWAT ANOMALY INCREASING TO +3SD AND LOW LEVEL JET REACHES
+4SD IN SNE AROUND 12Z MON SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND WE ARE ONLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
0.50-1.00" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MAIN THREAT IS TYPICAL
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING BUT THIS WILL BE OCCURRING DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
MON MORNING AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MONDAY MORNING
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. NAM IS MOST ROBUST WITH THE LOW LEVEL
NEARING 75 KT AT 925 MB WHILE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING 65-70 KT.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD INVERSION WHICH WILL LIMIT THESE WINDS FROM
MIXING DOWN. A FINE LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH COULD HELP TO BRING
DOWN THESE WINDS TO THE SFC IS NOT LIKELY AS INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL AND THERE IS NOT A COLD FRONT WHICH TYPICALLY PROVIDES A
FOCUS FOR THESE FINE LINES. TAKING ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THE JET
SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK AT 40-45 MPH WHICH IS NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. BEST CHANCE OF REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL
BE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...EARLIER IN WESTERN
NEW ENG...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS WILL
APPROACH 60 WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS TO 30-35 MPH IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. 925 MB TEMPS ARE QUITE MILD NEAR +15C WHICH WOULD NORMALLY
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S BUT THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
HEATING. IF WE CAN GET ANY SUN...70+ WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MILD BUT WINDY ON TUESDAY
* COASTAL STORM WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE WED-THU WITH UNCERTAINTY
* COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
23.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID TERM PERIOD...INCLUDING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
LONGWAVE TROF BY MID- LATE WEEK ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
THE PRIMARY MODEL ISSUES AND DISAGREEMENTS ARE STILL REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED-THU. THIS DISAGREEMENT IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL WRAPPED IN THE NEAR
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS LOW...AND MAY NOT BE BETTER SAMPLED FOR ANOTHER
24+ HOURS. AGREE WITH WPC...THE KEY WILL BE WHERE THE LOW PASSES
IN REGARD TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WITH THE GFS LEANING ABOUT
50-100 NM E AND THE ECMWF CLOSER TO BUT W OF IT. ECENS MEAN SEEMS
TO SPLIT THIS DIFFERENCE WELL...AND GIVEN WPC/S PREFERENCE FOR IT
AS WELL...WILL LEAN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS UPDATE CLOSER TO
IT/S THINKING...ALTHOUGH ESSENTIALLY THIS IS CLOSE TO A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND IN SPITE OF THE FACT THE ECMWF IS WELL W OF THE BENCHMARK.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STORM ITSELF...HOW EFFICIENTLY IT
IS ABLE TO DRAW IN THE COLDER AIR FROM THE LONGWAVE TROF TO THE W
REMAINS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT A TREND TOWARD COLDER CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...
MAINLY DRY FORECAST HERE ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY MON NIGHT AS UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH
ALONG WITH WEAKENING COLD FRONT. COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W AND SO
IN SPITE OF COLD ADVECTION W-FLOW...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR TO
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WED INTO THU...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY HERE FOR
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT
PLAY. IN ANY CASE...DO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN A MORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE SE MA
COASTLINE...MAKING IT/S CLOSEST PASS ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT...DIPPING BELOW 1000MB. THE EXACT TRACK IS THE MAIN QUESTION
AND AS SUCH...WHAT THE THERMAL PROFILE IS MOST LIKELY TO LOOK
LIKE. AT THIS TIME...0C H92 LINE VARIES BETWEEN JUST W OF THE BOS-
PVD CORRIDOR TO OFFSHORE...SO EXACTLY WHERE ANY RAIN/SNOW LINE
DEVELOPS REMAIN IN FLUX. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AS POINTED OUT BY THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WETBULB/DYNAMIC COOLING ARE LIKELY TO LEAD
TO COOLER TEMPS THAN THE STRAIGHT 2M MODEL TEMPS WOULD
INDICATE...SO EVEN WITH THE FURTHER E TRACK...SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
HOW MUCH IS JUST TOO UNCERTAIN TO CALL GIVEN NOT JUST THE THERMAL
PROFILE ISSUES... THERE IS A BANDING SIGNAL AND TROWAL SIGNATURE
TOWARD THE NE QUADRANT. WHICH COULD PROVIDE DYNAMIC COOLING.

WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR A COASTAL
STORM...WITH WINTERY PRECIP AND POSSIBLY EVEN PLOWABLE SNOW
DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK FOR THE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THANKSGIVING MORNING TIMEFRAME.  EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW AND WHERE
RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP REMAINS IN QUESTION. BUT PRECIP IS LIKELY TO
LEAN E GIVEN SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN ON THE RAIN SIDE AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS IF THE TRACK IS CLOSER.  COULD ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT
GRADIENT BETWEEN WRN MA/CT/NH AND EARN MA/RI IN SNOW/RAINFALL.
ALSO...AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...COASTAL FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN THE RAPID MOVEMENT /LACK OF DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING/ AND LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. ALL THESE FEATURES WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THEY WILL BEGIN DURING A VERY BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD
ON WED.

FRI...
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW
PRES...EXPECT A TREND TOWARD DRIER BUT COLDER WEATHER BY LATE IN
THE WEEK.

NEXT WEEKEND...
AS CORE OF COLD AIR TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OVER...EXPECT TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES/CLIPPER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

15Z UPDATE...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DESPITE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR-IFR AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY
HEAVY MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING AROUND 06Z
CT VALLEY AND REACHING E COAST BY 10Z. ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE MON
MORNING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. RAIN TAPERS OFF 12-16Z W TO E BUT
IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE IN. A PERIOD OF S WIND GUSTS TO
30-40 KT POSSIBLE 12-16Z MON ALONG THE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS...THEN SW GUSTS TO 30 KT COASTAL PLAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT CT VALLEY
SHIFTING TO SE NEW ENG MON MORNING AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
50-60 KT DEVELOPS AT 2K FT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. BUT A
FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT ESPECIALLY MAY YIELD MVFR
CONDITIONS.  W-SW WIND GUSTS ABOUT 20-25 KT AT TIMES EACH DAY.

WED INTO THU...LOW CONFIDENCE.  A COASTAL LOW PRES WILL MOVE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN JUST ONSHORE OF SE MA OR OFFSHORE.  GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW/RAIN
POTENTIAL...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EACH WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW. NE WINDS COULD ALSO GUST 25+ OR MORE EITHER DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SW GUSTS 25-30 KT SE WATERS EARLY...OTHERWISE DIMINISHING WIND
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN GUSTY S WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS WHICH WILL
LIKELY LIMIT GUSTS AND PREVENT STRONG WINDS FROM MIXING
DOWN. HOWEVER GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE JET...GALE FORCE GUSTS TO
35-40 KT SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS
WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH VERY LONG FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS MAINLY SW-W AND GUSTS 25-30 KT
INTO EARLY TUE.  SEAS ALSO AROUND 8-10 FT.  BOTH WINDS AND SEAS DROP
OFF LATE TUE TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF LULL EXPECTED INTO EARLY WED.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ON TUE.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
NEAR 40N/70W...THIS WILL YIELD BUILDING SWELL AND WINDS SHIFTING
FROM NE LATE WED TO WNW BY LATE THU.  DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE
STORM COMES...HEAVY RAIN AND AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  GALES ALSO A POSSIBILITY.  VISIBILITIES
DROP IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE MON MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1-2
FT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHICH MAY BRING SOME
LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE
TO SOUTHERLY FETCH. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC



000
FXUS61 KBOX 231502
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY AND MILD TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS BUT DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM MAY BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY. COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

THE LAST OF THE LIGHT SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS WERE EXITING THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  OTHERWISE...TEMPORARY MID LEVEL
RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND MILD WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.  GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
+5C...FEEL GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPS ARE A BIT TOO COOL.  HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
MIDDLE 50S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.  NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW SPOTS REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S.  WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15
MPH...SO IT WILL FEEL QUITE COMFORTABLE OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY AFTER THE RECENT COLD WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GT
LAKES LATE TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE S. GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ENHANCED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. GEFS
SHOWING PWAT ANOMALY INCREASING TO +3SD AND LOW LEVEL JET REACHES
+4SD IN SNE AROUND 12Z MON SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND WE ARE ONLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
0.50-1.00" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MAIN THREAT IS TYPICAL
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING BUT THIS WILL BE OCCURRING DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
MON MORNING AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MONDAY MORNING
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. NAM IS MOST ROBUST WITH THE LOW LEVEL
NEARING 75 KT AT 925 MB WHILE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING 65-70 KT.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD INVERSION WHICH WILL LIMIT THESE WINDS FROM
MIXING DOWN. A FINE LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH COULD HELP TO BRING
DOWN THESE WINDS TO THE SFC IS NOT LIKELY AS INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL AND THERE IS NOT A COLD FRONT WHICH TYPICALLY PROVIDES A
FOCUS FOR THESE FINE LINES. TAKING ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THE JET
SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK AT 40-45 MPH WHICH IS NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. BEST CHANCE OF REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL
BE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...EARLIER IN WESTERN
NEW ENG...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS WILL
APPROACH 60 WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS TO 30-35 MPH IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. 925 MB TEMPS ARE QUITE MILD NEAR +15C WHICH WOULD NORMALLY
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S BUT THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
HEATING. IF WE CAN GET ANY SUN...70+ WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MILD BUT WINDY ON TUESDAY
* COASTAL STORM WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE WED-THU WITH UNCERTAINTY
* COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
23.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID TERM PERIOD...INCLUDING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
LONGWAVE TROF BY MID- LATE WEEK ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
THE PRIMARY MODEL ISSUES AND DISAGREEMENTS ARE STILL REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED-THU. THIS DISAGREEMENT IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL WRAPPED IN THE NEAR
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS LOW...AND MAY NOT BE BETTER SAMPLED FOR ANOTHER
24+ HOURS. AGREE WITH WPC...THE KEY WILL BE WHERE THE LOW PASSES
IN REGARD TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WITH THE GFS LEANING ABOUT
50-100 NM E AND THE ECMWF CLOSER TO BUT W OF IT. ECENS MEAN SEEMS
TO SPLIT THIS DIFFERENCE WELL...AND GIVEN WPC/S PREFERENCE FOR IT
AS WELL...WILL LEAN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS UPDATE CLOSER TO
IT/S THINKING...ALTHOUGH ESSENTIALLY THIS IS CLOSE TO A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND IN SPITE OF THE FACT THE ECMWF IS WELL W OF THE BENCHMARK.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STORM ITSELF...HOW EFFICIENTLY IT
IS ABLE TO DRAW IN THE COLDER AIR FROM THE LONGWAVE TROF TO THE W
REMAINS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT A TREND TOWARD COLDER CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...
MAINLY DRY FORECAST HERE ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY MON NIGHT AS UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH
ALONG WITH WEAKENING COLD FRONT. COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W AND SO
IN SPITE OF COLD ADVECTION W-FLOW...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR TO
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WED INTO THU...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY HERE FOR
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT
PLAY. IN ANY CASE...DO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN A MORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE SE MA
COASTLINE...MAKING IT/S CLOSEST PASS ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT...DIPPING BELOW 1000MB. THE EXACT TRACK IS THE MAIN QUESTION
AND AS SUCH...WHAT THE THERMAL PROFILE IS MOST LIKELY TO LOOK
LIKE. AT THIS TIME...0C H92 LINE VARIES BETWEEN JUST W OF THE BOS-
PVD CORRIDOR TO OFFSHORE...SO EXACTLY WHERE ANY RAIN/SNOW LINE
DEVELOPS REMAIN IN FLUX. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AS POINTED OUT BY THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WETBULB/DYNAMIC COOLING ARE LIKELY TO LEAD
TO COOLER TEMPS THAN THE STRAIGHT 2M MODEL TEMPS WOULD
INDICATE...SO EVEN WITH THE FURTHER E TRACK...SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
HOW MUCH IS JUST TOO UNCERTAIN TO CALL GIVEN NOT JUST THE THERMAL
PROFILE ISSUES... THERE IS A BANDING SIGNAL AND TROWAL SIGNATURE
TOWARD THE NE QUADRANT. WHICH COULD PROVIDE DYNAMIC COOLING.

WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR A COASTAL
STORM...WITH WINTERY PRECIP AND POSSIBLY EVEN PLOWABLE SNOW
DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK FOR THE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THANKSGIVING MORNING TIMEFRAME.  EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW AND WHERE
RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP REMAINS IN QUESTION. BUT PRECIP IS LIKELY TO
LEAN E GIVEN SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN ON THE RAIN SIDE AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS IF THE TRACK IS CLOSER.  COULD ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT
GRADIENT BETWEEN WRN MA/CT/NH AND EARN MA/RI IN SNOW/RAINFALL.
ALSO...AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...COASTAL FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN THE RAPID MOVEMENT /LACK OF DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING/ AND LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. ALL THESE FEATURES WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THEY WILL BEGIN DURING A VERY BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD
ON WED.

FRI...
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW
PRES...EXPECT A TREND TOWARD DRIER BUT COLDER WEATHER BY LATE IN
THE WEEK.

NEXT WEEKEND...
AS CORE OF COLD AIR TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OVER...EXPECT TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES/CLIPPER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

15Z UPDATE...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DESPITE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR-IFR AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY
HEAVY MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING AROUND 06Z
CT VALLEY AND REACHING E COAST BY 10Z. ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE MON
MORNING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. RAIN TAPERS OFF 12-16Z W TO E BUT
IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE IN. A PERIOD OF S WIND GUSTS TO
30-40 KT POSSIBLE 12-16Z MON ALONG THE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS...THEN SW GUSTS TO 30 KT COASTAL PLAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT CT VALLEY
SHIFTING TO SE NEW ENG MON MORNING AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
50-60 KT DEVELOPS AT 2K FT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. BUT A
FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT ESPECIALLY MAY YIELD MVFR
CONDITIONS.  W-SW WIND GUSTS ABOUT 20-25 KT AT TIMES EACH DAY.

WED INTO THU...LOW CONFIDENCE.  A COASTAL LOW PRES WILL MOVE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN JUST ONSHORE OF SE MA OR OFFSHORE.  GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW/RAIN
POTENTIAL...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EACH WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW. NE WINDS COULD ALSO GUST 25+ OR MORE EITHER DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SW GUSTS 25-30 KT SE WATERS EARLY...OTHERWISE DIMINISHING WIND
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN GUSTY S WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS WHICH WILL
LIKELY LIMIT GUSTS AND PREVENT STRONG WINDS FROM MIXING
DOWN. HOWEVER GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE JET...GALE FORCE GUSTS TO
35-40 KT SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS
WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH VERY LONG FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS MAINLY SW-W AND GUSTS 25-30 KT
INTO EARLY TUE.  SEAS ALSO AROUND 8-10 FT.  BOTH WINDS AND SEAS DROP
OFF LATE TUE TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF LULL EXPECTED INTO EARLY WED.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ON TUE.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
NEAR 40N/70W...THIS WILL YIELD BUILDING SWELL AND WINDS SHIFTING
FROM NE LATE WED TO WNW BY LATE THU.  DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE
STORM COMES...HEAVY RAIN AND AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  GALES ALSO A POSSIBILITY.  VISIBILITIES
DROP IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE MON MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1-2
FT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHICH MAY BRING SOME
LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE
TO SOUTHERLY FETCH. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231502
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY AND MILD TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS BUT DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM MAY BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY. COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

THE LAST OF THE LIGHT SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS WERE EXITING THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  OTHERWISE...TEMPORARY MID LEVEL
RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND MILD WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.  GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
+5C...FEEL GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPS ARE A BIT TOO COOL.  HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
MIDDLE 50S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.  NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW SPOTS REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S.  WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15
MPH...SO IT WILL FEEL QUITE COMFORTABLE OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY AFTER THE RECENT COLD WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GT
LAKES LATE TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE S. GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ENHANCED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. GEFS
SHOWING PWAT ANOMALY INCREASING TO +3SD AND LOW LEVEL JET REACHES
+4SD IN SNE AROUND 12Z MON SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND WE ARE ONLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
0.50-1.00" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MAIN THREAT IS TYPICAL
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING BUT THIS WILL BE OCCURRING DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
MON MORNING AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MONDAY MORNING
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. NAM IS MOST ROBUST WITH THE LOW LEVEL
NEARING 75 KT AT 925 MB WHILE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING 65-70 KT.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD INVERSION WHICH WILL LIMIT THESE WINDS FROM
MIXING DOWN. A FINE LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH COULD HELP TO BRING
DOWN THESE WINDS TO THE SFC IS NOT LIKELY AS INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL AND THERE IS NOT A COLD FRONT WHICH TYPICALLY PROVIDES A
FOCUS FOR THESE FINE LINES. TAKING ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THE JET
SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK AT 40-45 MPH WHICH IS NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. BEST CHANCE OF REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL
BE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...EARLIER IN WESTERN
NEW ENG...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS WILL
APPROACH 60 WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS TO 30-35 MPH IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. 925 MB TEMPS ARE QUITE MILD NEAR +15C WHICH WOULD NORMALLY
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S BUT THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
HEATING. IF WE CAN GET ANY SUN...70+ WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MILD BUT WINDY ON TUESDAY
* COASTAL STORM WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE WED-THU WITH UNCERTAINTY
* COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
23.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID TERM PERIOD...INCLUDING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
LONGWAVE TROF BY MID- LATE WEEK ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
THE PRIMARY MODEL ISSUES AND DISAGREEMENTS ARE STILL REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED-THU. THIS DISAGREEMENT IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL WRAPPED IN THE NEAR
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS LOW...AND MAY NOT BE BETTER SAMPLED FOR ANOTHER
24+ HOURS. AGREE WITH WPC...THE KEY WILL BE WHERE THE LOW PASSES
IN REGARD TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WITH THE GFS LEANING ABOUT
50-100 NM E AND THE ECMWF CLOSER TO BUT W OF IT. ECENS MEAN SEEMS
TO SPLIT THIS DIFFERENCE WELL...AND GIVEN WPC/S PREFERENCE FOR IT
AS WELL...WILL LEAN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS UPDATE CLOSER TO
IT/S THINKING...ALTHOUGH ESSENTIALLY THIS IS CLOSE TO A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND IN SPITE OF THE FACT THE ECMWF IS WELL W OF THE BENCHMARK.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STORM ITSELF...HOW EFFICIENTLY IT
IS ABLE TO DRAW IN THE COLDER AIR FROM THE LONGWAVE TROF TO THE W
REMAINS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT A TREND TOWARD COLDER CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...
MAINLY DRY FORECAST HERE ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY MON NIGHT AS UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH
ALONG WITH WEAKENING COLD FRONT. COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W AND SO
IN SPITE OF COLD ADVECTION W-FLOW...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR TO
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WED INTO THU...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY HERE FOR
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT
PLAY. IN ANY CASE...DO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN A MORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE SE MA
COASTLINE...MAKING IT/S CLOSEST PASS ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT...DIPPING BELOW 1000MB. THE EXACT TRACK IS THE MAIN QUESTION
AND AS SUCH...WHAT THE THERMAL PROFILE IS MOST LIKELY TO LOOK
LIKE. AT THIS TIME...0C H92 LINE VARIES BETWEEN JUST W OF THE BOS-
PVD CORRIDOR TO OFFSHORE...SO EXACTLY WHERE ANY RAIN/SNOW LINE
DEVELOPS REMAIN IN FLUX. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AS POINTED OUT BY THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WETBULB/DYNAMIC COOLING ARE LIKELY TO LEAD
TO COOLER TEMPS THAN THE STRAIGHT 2M MODEL TEMPS WOULD
INDICATE...SO EVEN WITH THE FURTHER E TRACK...SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
HOW MUCH IS JUST TOO UNCERTAIN TO CALL GIVEN NOT JUST THE THERMAL
PROFILE ISSUES... THERE IS A BANDING SIGNAL AND TROWAL SIGNATURE
TOWARD THE NE QUADRANT. WHICH COULD PROVIDE DYNAMIC COOLING.

WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR A COASTAL
STORM...WITH WINTERY PRECIP AND POSSIBLY EVEN PLOWABLE SNOW
DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK FOR THE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THANKSGIVING MORNING TIMEFRAME.  EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW AND WHERE
RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP REMAINS IN QUESTION. BUT PRECIP IS LIKELY TO
LEAN E GIVEN SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN ON THE RAIN SIDE AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS IF THE TRACK IS CLOSER.  COULD ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT
GRADIENT BETWEEN WRN MA/CT/NH AND EARN MA/RI IN SNOW/RAINFALL.
ALSO...AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...COASTAL FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN THE RAPID MOVEMENT /LACK OF DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING/ AND LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. ALL THESE FEATURES WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THEY WILL BEGIN DURING A VERY BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD
ON WED.

FRI...
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW
PRES...EXPECT A TREND TOWARD DRIER BUT COLDER WEATHER BY LATE IN
THE WEEK.

NEXT WEEKEND...
AS CORE OF COLD AIR TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OVER...EXPECT TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES/CLIPPER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

15Z UPDATE...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DESPITE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR-IFR AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY
HEAVY MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING AROUND 06Z
CT VALLEY AND REACHING E COAST BY 10Z. ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE MON
MORNING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. RAIN TAPERS OFF 12-16Z W TO E BUT
IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE IN. A PERIOD OF S WIND GUSTS TO
30-40 KT POSSIBLE 12-16Z MON ALONG THE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS...THEN SW GUSTS TO 30 KT COASTAL PLAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT CT VALLEY
SHIFTING TO SE NEW ENG MON MORNING AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
50-60 KT DEVELOPS AT 2K FT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. BUT A
FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT ESPECIALLY MAY YIELD MVFR
CONDITIONS.  W-SW WIND GUSTS ABOUT 20-25 KT AT TIMES EACH DAY.

WED INTO THU...LOW CONFIDENCE.  A COASTAL LOW PRES WILL MOVE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN JUST ONSHORE OF SE MA OR OFFSHORE.  GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW/RAIN
POTENTIAL...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EACH WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW. NE WINDS COULD ALSO GUST 25+ OR MORE EITHER DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SW GUSTS 25-30 KT SE WATERS EARLY...OTHERWISE DIMINISHING WIND
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN GUSTY S WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS WHICH WILL
LIKELY LIMIT GUSTS AND PREVENT STRONG WINDS FROM MIXING
DOWN. HOWEVER GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE JET...GALE FORCE GUSTS TO
35-40 KT SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS
WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH VERY LONG FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS MAINLY SW-W AND GUSTS 25-30 KT
INTO EARLY TUE.  SEAS ALSO AROUND 8-10 FT.  BOTH WINDS AND SEAS DROP
OFF LATE TUE TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF LULL EXPECTED INTO EARLY WED.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ON TUE.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
NEAR 40N/70W...THIS WILL YIELD BUILDING SWELL AND WINDS SHIFTING
FROM NE LATE WED TO WNW BY LATE THU.  DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE
STORM COMES...HEAVY RAIN AND AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  GALES ALSO A POSSIBILITY.  VISIBILITIES
DROP IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE MON MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1-2
FT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHICH MAY BRING SOME
LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE
TO SOUTHERLY FETCH. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC



000
FXUS61 KGYX 231430
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
930 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM...THIS UPDATES REMOVES POPS FOR ALL BUT A FEW FLURRIES OR
SPKLES IN THE MTNS THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING. OTHERWISE
UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL KEEP THE COASTAL PLAIN MORE ON THE
SUNNY SIDE...AND HOLD MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS IN THE MTNS. IT WILL
ALSO BE MILD WITH HIGHS AROUND 50 ON THE COAST AND IN INTERIOR S
NH. 40S ELSEWHERE.

PREV DISC...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER HAS WARMED SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST WAVE OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ON NWS RADAR MOSAIC WAS ENTERING
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AS OF 07Z. THIS AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND
EXIT THE COAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED IMPULSE THIS MORNING. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE GREATLY REDUCED...THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINE HAS BEEN DROPPED WITH THE 3 AM
FORECAST PACKAGE. BEHIND THE IMPULSE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS
WILL ACTUALLY BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW 50 DEGREE NUMBERS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE SHORT LIVED...AS THE NEXT IMPULSE
AND ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST VERTICAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT A FEW
NORTHERN INTERIOR VALLEYS COULD SEE SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
DRIZZLE FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S.

OCCASIONAL RAIN AND MILD ON MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT PRESSES NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RAIN DIMINISHING TO DRIZZLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A RATHER BREEZY AND BALMY DAY WITH HIGHS OF 50 TO 60
AVERAGING A FULL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE COLDER
AIR BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. A FEW
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE A DRY DAY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A POTENT COASTAL
STORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WEDNESDAY/ THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY BREAK... IF THIS DOES COME TO FRUITION WE EXPECT MAJOR
INTERRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO GET TO THEIR
DESTINATIONS EARLY IF POSSIBLE. POPS WERE INCREASED BUT NOT OVERLY
SO TO MAKE ROOM FOR POSSIBLE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING.

LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO FALL EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG WARM FRONT COMES ONSHORE. NORTH OF THE
FRONT... FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR SNOW
TO FALL. AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY NORTH... SO WILL THE WARMER
AIR ALLOWING SNOW TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM... WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THIS WILL BE
A TRAVEL HAZARD ONLY IN THAT IT WILL BE A STEADY... PERSISTENT
RAINFALL ON A HEAVY TRAVEL DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN A BAND CENTERED NEAR
THE COAST... WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM LONG ISLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND THURSDAY
MORNING AND PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MIDCOAST AND THE
NORTH. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD FALL JUST INLAND FROM NEAR
FARMINGTON TO NEAR BANGOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE REAL
COLD AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS ARCTIC AIR TO SETTLE IN FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...AREAS OF MVFR TODAY IN CEILINGS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR DEVELOPS MONDAY MORNING WITH WARM FRONTAL RAINS
WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. VFR MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT MTN MVFR IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...IFR TO LIFR IN SNOW OR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND THEN VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... WINDS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AND THE
GALE HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT UNTIL 18Z
TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES WITH
A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 231430
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
930 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM...THIS UPDATES REMOVES POPS FOR ALL BUT A FEW FLURRIES OR
SPKLES IN THE MTNS THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING. OTHERWISE
UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL KEEP THE COASTAL PLAIN MORE ON THE
SUNNY SIDE...AND HOLD MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS IN THE MTNS. IT WILL
ALSO BE MILD WITH HIGHS AROUND 50 ON THE COAST AND IN INTERIOR S
NH. 40S ELSEWHERE.

PREV DISC...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER HAS WARMED SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST WAVE OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ON NWS RADAR MOSAIC WAS ENTERING
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AS OF 07Z. THIS AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND
EXIT THE COAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED IMPULSE THIS MORNING. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE GREATLY REDUCED...THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINE HAS BEEN DROPPED WITH THE 3 AM
FORECAST PACKAGE. BEHIND THE IMPULSE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS
WILL ACTUALLY BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW 50 DEGREE NUMBERS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE SHORT LIVED...AS THE NEXT IMPULSE
AND ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST VERTICAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT A FEW
NORTHERN INTERIOR VALLEYS COULD SEE SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
DRIZZLE FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S.

OCCASIONAL RAIN AND MILD ON MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT PRESSES NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RAIN DIMINISHING TO DRIZZLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A RATHER BREEZY AND BALMY DAY WITH HIGHS OF 50 TO 60
AVERAGING A FULL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE COLDER
AIR BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. A FEW
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE A DRY DAY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A POTENT COASTAL
STORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WEDNESDAY/ THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY BREAK... IF THIS DOES COME TO FRUITION WE EXPECT MAJOR
INTERRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO GET TO THEIR
DESTINATIONS EARLY IF POSSIBLE. POPS WERE INCREASED BUT NOT OVERLY
SO TO MAKE ROOM FOR POSSIBLE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING.

LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO FALL EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG WARM FRONT COMES ONSHORE. NORTH OF THE
FRONT... FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR SNOW
TO FALL. AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY NORTH... SO WILL THE WARMER
AIR ALLOWING SNOW TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM... WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THIS WILL BE
A TRAVEL HAZARD ONLY IN THAT IT WILL BE A STEADY... PERSISTENT
RAINFALL ON A HEAVY TRAVEL DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN A BAND CENTERED NEAR
THE COAST... WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM LONG ISLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND THURSDAY
MORNING AND PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MIDCOAST AND THE
NORTH. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD FALL JUST INLAND FROM NEAR
FARMINGTON TO NEAR BANGOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE REAL
COLD AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS ARCTIC AIR TO SETTLE IN FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...AREAS OF MVFR TODAY IN CEILINGS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR DEVELOPS MONDAY MORNING WITH WARM FRONTAL RAINS
WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. VFR MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT MTN MVFR IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...IFR TO LIFR IN SNOW OR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND THEN VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... WINDS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AND THE
GALE HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT UNTIL 18Z
TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES WITH
A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MILD TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS BUT DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM MAY BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY. COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
LAST FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH MODEST LLJ AND WARM FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH AND DISSIPATING THIS HOUR ACROSS
CT/RI/SE MA. THESE SHOULD COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING AS OTHER PARAMETERS ARE ON TRACK...INCLUDING TEMPS/DWPTS.

SCT SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. TEMPS ARE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S SO PTYPE IS RAIN...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS IN W
MA REPORTING 32-33 DEGREES PER MESONET SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED POCKET OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...MAINLY BERKSHIRES. PRECIP
WILL END BY DAYBREAK. FURTHER SOUTH...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS
LOW LEVELS ARE CONSIDERABLY DRIER.

FOR TODAY...WEAK SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS ENOUGH MID
LEVEL DRYING FOR SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A MILD AFTERNOON. 2M TEMPS SUGGEST MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 40S IN THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN. 925 MB
TEMPS 8-10C SO THERE IS A CHANCE TEMPS COULD BE EVEN MILDER IF
THERE IS ENOUGH SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GT
LAKES LATE TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE S. GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ENHANCED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. GEFS
SHOWING PWAT ANOMALY INCREASING TO +3SD AND LOW LEVEL JET REACHES
+4SD IN SNE AROUND 12Z MON SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND WE ARE ONLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
0.50-1.00" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MAIN THREAT IS TYPICAL
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING BUT THIS WILL BE OCCURRING DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
MON MORNING AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MONDAY MORNING
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. NAM IS MOST ROBUST WITH THE LOW LEVEL
NEARING 75 KT AT 925 MB WHILE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING 65-70 KT.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD INVERSION WHICH WILL LIMIT THESE WINDS FROM
MIXING DOWN. A FINE LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH COULD HELP TO BRING
DOWN THESE WINDS TO THE SFC IS NOT LIKELY AS INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL AND THERE IS NOT A COLD FRONT WHICH TYPICALLY PROVIDES A
FOCUS FOR THESE FINE LINES. TAKING ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THE JET
SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK AT 40-45 MPH WHICH IS NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. BEST CHANCE OF REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL
BE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...EARLIER IN WESTERN
NEW ENG...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS WILL
APPROACH 60 WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS TO 30-35 MPH IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. 925 MB TEMPS ARE QUITE MILD NEAR +15C WHICH WOULD NORMALLY
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S BUT THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
HEATING. IF WE CAN GET ANY SUN...70+ WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MILD BUT WINDY ON TUESDAY
* COASTAL STORM WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE WED-THU WITH UNCERTAINTY
* COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
23.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID TERM PERIOD...INCLUDING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
LONGWAVE TROF BY MID- LATE WEEK ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
THE PRIMARY MODEL ISSUES AND DISAGREEMENTS ARE STILL REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED-THU. THIS DISAGREEMENT IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL WRAPPED IN THE NEAR
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS LOW...AND MAY NOT BE BETTER SAMPLED FOR ANOTHER
24+ HOURS. AGREE WITH WPC...THE KEY WILL BE WHERE THE LOW PASSES
IN REGARD TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WITH THE GFS LEANING ABOUT
50-100 NM E AND THE ECMWF CLOSER TO BUT W OF IT. ECENS MEAN SEEMS
TO SPLIT THIS DIFFERENCE WELL...AND GIVEN WPC/S PREFERENCE FOR IT
AS WELL...WILL LEAN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS UPDATE CLOSER TO
IT/S THINKING...ALTHOUGH ESSENTIALLY THIS IS CLOSE TO A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND IN SPITE OF THE FACT THE ECMWF IS WELL W OF THE BENCHMARK.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STORM ITSELF...HOW EFFICIENTLY IT
IS ABLE TO DRAW IN THE COLDER AIR FROM THE LONGWAVE TROF TO THE W
REMAINS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT A TREND TOWARD COLDER CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...
MAINLY DRY FORECAST HERE ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY MON NIGHT AS UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH
ALONG WITH WEAKENING COLD FRONT. COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W AND SO
IN SPITE OF COLD ADVECTION W-FLOW...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR TO
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WED INTO THU...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY HERE FOR
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT
PLAY. IN ANY CASE...DO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN A MORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE SE MA
COASTLINE...MAKING IT/S CLOSEST PASS ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT...DIPPING BELOW 1000MB. THE EXACT TRACK IS THE MAIN QUESTION
AND AS SUCH...WHAT THE THERMAL PROFILE IS MOST LIKELY TO LOOK
LIKE. AT THIS TIME...0C H92 LINE VARIES BETWEEN JUST W OF THE BOS-
PVD CORRIDOR TO OFFSHORE...SO EXACTLY WHERE ANY RAIN/SNOW LINE
DEVELOPS REMAIN IN FLUX. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AS POINTED OUT BY THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WETBULB/DYNAMIC COOLING ARE LIKELY TO LEAD
TO COOLER TEMPS THAN THE STRAIGHT 2M MODEL TEMPS WOULD
INDICATE...SO EVEN WITH THE FURTHER E TRACK...SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
HOW MUCH IS JUST TOO UNCERTAIN TO CALL GIVEN NOT JUST THE THERMAL
PROFILE ISSUES... THERE IS A BANDING SIGNAL AND TROWAL SIGNATURE
TOWARD THE NE QUADRANT. WHICH COULD PROVIDE DYNAMIC COOLING.

WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR A COASTAL
STORM...WITH WINTERY PRECIP AND POSSIBLY EVEN PLOWABLE SNOW
DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK FOR THE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THANKSGIVING MORNING TIMEFRAME.  EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW AND WHERE
RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP REMAINS IN QUESTION. BUT PRECIP IS LIKELY TO
LEAN E GIVEN SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN ON THE RAIN SIDE AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS IF THE TRACK IS CLOSER.  COULD ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT
GRADIENT BETWEEN WRN MA/CT/NH AND EARN MA/RI IN SNOW/RAINFALL.
ALSO...AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...COASTAL FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN THE RAPID MOVEMENT /LACK OF DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING/ AND LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. ALL THESE FEATURES WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THEY WILL BEGIN DURING A VERY BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD
ON WED.

FRI...
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW
PRES...EXPECT A TREND TOWARD DRIER BUT COLDER WEATHER BY LATE IN
THE WEEK.

NEXT WEEKEND...
AS CORE OF COLD AIR TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OVER...EXPECT TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES/CLIPPER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR BERKSHIRES AND
MONADNOCKS. SCT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS W AND CENTRAL MA WITH ISOLD
-FZRA IN THE BERKSHIRES. SW GUSTS TO 35 KT CAPE/ISLANDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH 12Z. AREAS OF LLWS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
CT VALLEY WHERE SFC WINDS SOUTH AND 2K WINDS WEST AROUND 40 KT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR-IFR AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY
HEAVY MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING AROUND 06Z
CT VALLEY AND REACHING E COAST BY 10Z. ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE MON
MORNING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. RAIN TAPERS OFF 12-16Z W TO E BUT
IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE IN. A PERIOD OF S WIND GUSTS TO
30-40 KT POSSIBLE 12-16Z MON ALONG THE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS...THEN SW GUSTS TO 30 KT COASTAL PLAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT CT VALLEY
SHIFTING TO SE NEW ENG MON MORNING AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
50-60 KT DEVELOPS AT 2K FT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS MAINLY N OF TERMINAL.
LLWS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. BUT A
FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT ESPECIALLY MAY YIELD MVFR
CONDITIONS.  W-SW WIND GUSTS ABOUT 20-25 KT AT TIMES EACH DAY.

WED INTO THU...LOW CONFIDENCE.  A COASTAL LOW PRES WILL MOVE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN JUST ONSHORE OF SE MA OR OFFSHORE.  GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW/RAIN
POTENTIAL...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EACH WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW. NE WINDS COULD ALSO GUST 25+ OR MORE EITHER DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SW GUSTS 25-30 KT SE WATERS EARLY...OTHERWISE DIMINISHING WIND
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN GUSTY S WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS WHICH WILL
LIKELY LIMIT GUSTS AND PREVENT STRONG WINDS FROM MIXING
DOWN. HOWEVER GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE JET...GALE FORCE GUSTS TO
35-40 KT SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS
WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH VERY LONG FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS MAINLY SW-W AND GUSTS 25-30 KT
INTO EARLY TUE.  SEAS ALSO AROUND 8-10 FT.  BOTH WINDS AND SEAS DROP
OFF LATE TUE TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF LULL EXPECTED INTO EARLY WED.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ON TUE.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
NEAR 40N/70W...THIS WILL YIELD BUILDING SWELL AND WINDS SHIFTING
FROM NE LATE WED TO WNW BY LATE THU.  DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE
STORM COMES...HEAVY RAIN AND AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  GALES ALSO A POSSIBILITY.  VISIBILITIES
DROP IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE MON MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1-2
FT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHICH MAY BRING SOME
LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE
TO SOUTHERLY FETCH. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MILD TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS BUT DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM MAY BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY. COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
LAST FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH MODEST LLJ AND WARM FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH AND DISSIPATING THIS HOUR ACROSS
CT/RI/SE MA. THESE SHOULD COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING AS OTHER PARAMETERS ARE ON TRACK...INCLUDING TEMPS/DWPTS.

SCT SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. TEMPS ARE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S SO PTYPE IS RAIN...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS IN W
MA REPORTING 32-33 DEGREES PER MESONET SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED POCKET OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...MAINLY BERKSHIRES. PRECIP
WILL END BY DAYBREAK. FURTHER SOUTH...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS
LOW LEVELS ARE CONSIDERABLY DRIER.

FOR TODAY...WEAK SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS ENOUGH MID
LEVEL DRYING FOR SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A MILD AFTERNOON. 2M TEMPS SUGGEST MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 40S IN THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN. 925 MB
TEMPS 8-10C SO THERE IS A CHANCE TEMPS COULD BE EVEN MILDER IF
THERE IS ENOUGH SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GT
LAKES LATE TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE S. GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ENHANCED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. GEFS
SHOWING PWAT ANOMALY INCREASING TO +3SD AND LOW LEVEL JET REACHES
+4SD IN SNE AROUND 12Z MON SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND WE ARE ONLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
0.50-1.00" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MAIN THREAT IS TYPICAL
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING BUT THIS WILL BE OCCURRING DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
MON MORNING AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MONDAY MORNING
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. NAM IS MOST ROBUST WITH THE LOW LEVEL
NEARING 75 KT AT 925 MB WHILE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING 65-70 KT.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD INVERSION WHICH WILL LIMIT THESE WINDS FROM
MIXING DOWN. A FINE LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH COULD HELP TO BRING
DOWN THESE WINDS TO THE SFC IS NOT LIKELY AS INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL AND THERE IS NOT A COLD FRONT WHICH TYPICALLY PROVIDES A
FOCUS FOR THESE FINE LINES. TAKING ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THE JET
SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK AT 40-45 MPH WHICH IS NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. BEST CHANCE OF REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL
BE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...EARLIER IN WESTERN
NEW ENG...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS WILL
APPROACH 60 WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS TO 30-35 MPH IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. 925 MB TEMPS ARE QUITE MILD NEAR +15C WHICH WOULD NORMALLY
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S BUT THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
HEATING. IF WE CAN GET ANY SUN...70+ WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MILD BUT WINDY ON TUESDAY
* COASTAL STORM WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE WED-THU WITH UNCERTAINTY
* COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
23.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID TERM PERIOD...INCLUDING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
LONGWAVE TROF BY MID- LATE WEEK ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
THE PRIMARY MODEL ISSUES AND DISAGREEMENTS ARE STILL REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED-THU. THIS DISAGREEMENT IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL WRAPPED IN THE NEAR
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS LOW...AND MAY NOT BE BETTER SAMPLED FOR ANOTHER
24+ HOURS. AGREE WITH WPC...THE KEY WILL BE WHERE THE LOW PASSES
IN REGARD TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WITH THE GFS LEANING ABOUT
50-100 NM E AND THE ECMWF CLOSER TO BUT W OF IT. ECENS MEAN SEEMS
TO SPLIT THIS DIFFERENCE WELL...AND GIVEN WPC/S PREFERENCE FOR IT
AS WELL...WILL LEAN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS UPDATE CLOSER TO
IT/S THINKING...ALTHOUGH ESSENTIALLY THIS IS CLOSE TO A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND IN SPITE OF THE FACT THE ECMWF IS WELL W OF THE BENCHMARK.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STORM ITSELF...HOW EFFICIENTLY IT
IS ABLE TO DRAW IN THE COLDER AIR FROM THE LONGWAVE TROF TO THE W
REMAINS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT A TREND TOWARD COLDER CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...
MAINLY DRY FORECAST HERE ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY MON NIGHT AS UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH
ALONG WITH WEAKENING COLD FRONT. COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W AND SO
IN SPITE OF COLD ADVECTION W-FLOW...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR TO
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WED INTO THU...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY HERE FOR
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT
PLAY. IN ANY CASE...DO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN A MORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE SE MA
COASTLINE...MAKING IT/S CLOSEST PASS ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT...DIPPING BELOW 1000MB. THE EXACT TRACK IS THE MAIN QUESTION
AND AS SUCH...WHAT THE THERMAL PROFILE IS MOST LIKELY TO LOOK
LIKE. AT THIS TIME...0C H92 LINE VARIES BETWEEN JUST W OF THE BOS-
PVD CORRIDOR TO OFFSHORE...SO EXACTLY WHERE ANY RAIN/SNOW LINE
DEVELOPS REMAIN IN FLUX. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AS POINTED OUT BY THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WETBULB/DYNAMIC COOLING ARE LIKELY TO LEAD
TO COOLER TEMPS THAN THE STRAIGHT 2M MODEL TEMPS WOULD
INDICATE...SO EVEN WITH THE FURTHER E TRACK...SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
HOW MUCH IS JUST TOO UNCERTAIN TO CALL GIVEN NOT JUST THE THERMAL
PROFILE ISSUES... THERE IS A BANDING SIGNAL AND TROWAL SIGNATURE
TOWARD THE NE QUADRANT. WHICH COULD PROVIDE DYNAMIC COOLING.

WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR A COASTAL
STORM...WITH WINTERY PRECIP AND POSSIBLY EVEN PLOWABLE SNOW
DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK FOR THE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THANKSGIVING MORNING TIMEFRAME.  EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW AND WHERE
RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP REMAINS IN QUESTION. BUT PRECIP IS LIKELY TO
LEAN E GIVEN SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN ON THE RAIN SIDE AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS IF THE TRACK IS CLOSER.  COULD ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT
GRADIENT BETWEEN WRN MA/CT/NH AND EARN MA/RI IN SNOW/RAINFALL.
ALSO...AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...COASTAL FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN THE RAPID MOVEMENT /LACK OF DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING/ AND LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. ALL THESE FEATURES WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THEY WILL BEGIN DURING A VERY BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD
ON WED.

FRI...
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW
PRES...EXPECT A TREND TOWARD DRIER BUT COLDER WEATHER BY LATE IN
THE WEEK.

NEXT WEEKEND...
AS CORE OF COLD AIR TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OVER...EXPECT TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES/CLIPPER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR BERKSHIRES AND
MONADNOCKS. SCT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS W AND CENTRAL MA WITH ISOLD
-FZRA IN THE BERKSHIRES. SW GUSTS TO 35 KT CAPE/ISLANDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH 12Z. AREAS OF LLWS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
CT VALLEY WHERE SFC WINDS SOUTH AND 2K WINDS WEST AROUND 40 KT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR-IFR AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY
HEAVY MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING AROUND 06Z
CT VALLEY AND REACHING E COAST BY 10Z. ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE MON
MORNING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. RAIN TAPERS OFF 12-16Z W TO E BUT
IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE IN. A PERIOD OF S WIND GUSTS TO
30-40 KT POSSIBLE 12-16Z MON ALONG THE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS...THEN SW GUSTS TO 30 KT COASTAL PLAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT CT VALLEY
SHIFTING TO SE NEW ENG MON MORNING AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
50-60 KT DEVELOPS AT 2K FT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS MAINLY N OF TERMINAL.
LLWS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. BUT A
FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT ESPECIALLY MAY YIELD MVFR
CONDITIONS.  W-SW WIND GUSTS ABOUT 20-25 KT AT TIMES EACH DAY.

WED INTO THU...LOW CONFIDENCE.  A COASTAL LOW PRES WILL MOVE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN JUST ONSHORE OF SE MA OR OFFSHORE.  GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW/RAIN
POTENTIAL...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EACH WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW. NE WINDS COULD ALSO GUST 25+ OR MORE EITHER DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SW GUSTS 25-30 KT SE WATERS EARLY...OTHERWISE DIMINISHING WIND
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN GUSTY S WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS WHICH WILL
LIKELY LIMIT GUSTS AND PREVENT STRONG WINDS FROM MIXING
DOWN. HOWEVER GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE JET...GALE FORCE GUSTS TO
35-40 KT SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS
WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH VERY LONG FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS MAINLY SW-W AND GUSTS 25-30 KT
INTO EARLY TUE.  SEAS ALSO AROUND 8-10 FT.  BOTH WINDS AND SEAS DROP
OFF LATE TUE TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF LULL EXPECTED INTO EARLY WED.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ON TUE.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
NEAR 40N/70W...THIS WILL YIELD BUILDING SWELL AND WINDS SHIFTING
FROM NE LATE WED TO WNW BY LATE THU.  DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE
STORM COMES...HEAVY RAIN AND AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  GALES ALSO A POSSIBILITY.  VISIBILITIES
DROP IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE MON MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1-2
FT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHICH MAY BRING SOME
LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE
TO SOUTHERLY FETCH. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 231112
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
612 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN
AREAS EARLY TODAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL
AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL
DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

555 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD TO REFLECT THE 10Z MESONET.

PREV DISC...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER HAS WARMED SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST WAVE OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ON NWS RADAR MOSAIC WAS ENTERING
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AS OF 07Z. THIS AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND
EXIT THE COAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED IMPULSE THIS MORNING. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE GREATLY REDUCED...THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINE HAS BEEN DROPPED WITH THE 3 AM
FORECAST PACKAGE. BEHIND THE IMPULSE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS
WILL ACTUALLY BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW 50 DEGREE NUMBERS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE SHORT LIVED...AS THE NEXT IMPULSE
AND ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST VERTICAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT A FEW
NORTHERN INTERIOR VALLEYS COULD SEE SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
DRIZZLE FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S.

OCCASIONAL RAIN AND MILD ON MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT PRESSES NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RAIN DIMINISHING TO DRIZZLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A RATHER BREEZY AND BALMY DAY WITH HIGHS OF 50 TO 60
AVERAGING A FULL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE COLDER
AIR BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. A FEW
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE A DRY DAY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A POTENT COASTAL
STORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WEDNESDAY/ THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY BREAK... IF THIS DOES COME TO FRUITION WE EXPECT MAJOR
INTERRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO GET TO THEIR
DESTINATIONS EARLY IF POSSIBLE. POPS WERE INCREASED BUT NOT OVERLY
SO TO MAKE ROOM FOR POSSIBLE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING.

LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO FALL EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG WARM FRONT COMES ONSHORE. NORTH OF THE
FRONT... FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR SNOW
TO FALL. AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY NORTH... SO WILL THE WARMER
AIR ALLOWING SNOW TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM... WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THIS WILL BE
A TRAVEL HAZARD ONLY IN THAT IT WILL BE A STEADY... PERSISTENT
RAINFALL ON A HEAVY TRAVEL DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN A BAND CENTERED NEAR
THE COAST... WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM LONG ISLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND THURSDAY
MORNING AND PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MIDCOAST AND THE
NORTH. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD FALL JUST INLAND FROM NEAR
FARMINGTON TO NEAR BANGOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE REAL
COLD AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS ARCTIC AIR TO SETTLE IN FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...AREAS OF MVFR TODAY IN CEILINGS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR DEVELOPS MONDAY MORNING WITH WARM FRONTAL RAINS
WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. VFR MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT MTN MVFR IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...IFR TO LIFR IN SNOW OR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND THEN VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... WINDS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AND THE
GALE HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT UNTIL 18Z
TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES WITH
A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 231112
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
612 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN
AREAS EARLY TODAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL
AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL
DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

555 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD TO REFLECT THE 10Z MESONET.

PREV DISC...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER HAS WARMED SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST WAVE OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ON NWS RADAR MOSAIC WAS ENTERING
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AS OF 07Z. THIS AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND
EXIT THE COAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED IMPULSE THIS MORNING. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE GREATLY REDUCED...THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINE HAS BEEN DROPPED WITH THE 3 AM
FORECAST PACKAGE. BEHIND THE IMPULSE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS
WILL ACTUALLY BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW 50 DEGREE NUMBERS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE SHORT LIVED...AS THE NEXT IMPULSE
AND ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST VERTICAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT A FEW
NORTHERN INTERIOR VALLEYS COULD SEE SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
DRIZZLE FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S.

OCCASIONAL RAIN AND MILD ON MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT PRESSES NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RAIN DIMINISHING TO DRIZZLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A RATHER BREEZY AND BALMY DAY WITH HIGHS OF 50 TO 60
AVERAGING A FULL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE COLDER
AIR BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. A FEW
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE A DRY DAY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A POTENT COASTAL
STORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WEDNESDAY/ THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY BREAK... IF THIS DOES COME TO FRUITION WE EXPECT MAJOR
INTERRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO GET TO THEIR
DESTINATIONS EARLY IF POSSIBLE. POPS WERE INCREASED BUT NOT OVERLY
SO TO MAKE ROOM FOR POSSIBLE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING.

LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO FALL EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG WARM FRONT COMES ONSHORE. NORTH OF THE
FRONT... FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR SNOW
TO FALL. AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY NORTH... SO WILL THE WARMER
AIR ALLOWING SNOW TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM... WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THIS WILL BE
A TRAVEL HAZARD ONLY IN THAT IT WILL BE A STEADY... PERSISTENT
RAINFALL ON A HEAVY TRAVEL DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN A BAND CENTERED NEAR
THE COAST... WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM LONG ISLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND THURSDAY
MORNING AND PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MIDCOAST AND THE
NORTH. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD FALL JUST INLAND FROM NEAR
FARMINGTON TO NEAR BANGOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE REAL
COLD AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS ARCTIC AIR TO SETTLE IN FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...AREAS OF MVFR TODAY IN CEILINGS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR DEVELOPS MONDAY MORNING WITH WARM FRONTAL RAINS
WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. VFR MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT MTN MVFR IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...IFR TO LIFR IN SNOW OR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND THEN VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... WINDS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AND THE
GALE HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT UNTIL 18Z
TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES WITH
A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230925
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
425 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MILD TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS BUT DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM MAY BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY. COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCT SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. TEMPS ARE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S SO PTYPE IS RAIN...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS IN W
MA REPORTING 32-33 DEGREES PER MESONET SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED POCKET OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...MAINLY BERKSHIRES. PRECIP
WILL END BY DAYBREAK. FURTHER SOUTH...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS
LOW LEVELS ARE CONSIDERABLY DRIER.

FOR TODAY...WEAK SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS ENOUGH MID
LEVEL DRYING FOR SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A MILD AFTERNOON. 2M TEMPS SUGGEST MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 40S IN THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN. 925 MB
TEMPS 8-10C SO THERE IS A CHANCE TEMPS COULD BE EVEN MILDER IF
THERE IS ENOUGH SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GT
LAKES LATE TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE S. GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ENHANCED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. GEFS
SHOWING PWAT ANOMALY INCREASING TO +3SD AND LOW LEVEL JET REACHES
+4SD IN SNE AROUND 12Z MON SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND WE ARE ONLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
0.50-1.00" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MAIN THREAT IS TYPICAL
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING BUT THIS WILL BE OCCURRING DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
MON MORNING AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MONDAY MORNING
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. NAM IS MOST ROBUST WITH THE LOW LEVEL
NEARING 75 KT AT 925 MB WHILE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING 65-70 KT.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD INVERSION WHICH WILL LIMIT THESE WINDS FROM
MIXING DOWN. A FINE LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH COULD HELP TO BRING
DOWN THESE WINDS TO THE SFC IS NOT LIKELY AS INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL AND THERE IS NOT A COLD FRONT WHICH TYPICALLY PROVIDES A
FOCUS FOR THESE FINE LINES. TAKING ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THE JET
SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK AT 40-45 MPH WHICH IS NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. BEST CHANCE OF REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL
BE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...EARLIER IN WESTERN
NEW ENG...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS WILL
APPROACH 60 WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS TO 30-35 MPH IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. 925 MB TEMPS ARE QUITE MILD NEAR +15C WHICH WOULD NORMALLY
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S BUT THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
HEATING. IF WE CAN GET ANY SUN...70+ WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MILD BUT WINDY ON TUESDAY
* COASTAL STORM WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE WED-THU WITH UNCERTAINTY
* COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
23.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID TERM PERIOD...INCLUDING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
LONGWAVE TROF BY MID- LATE WEEK ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
THE PRIMARY MODEL ISSUES AND DISAGREEMENTS ARE STILL REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED-THU. THIS DISAGREEMENT IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL WRAPPED IN THE NEAR
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS LOW...AND MAY NOT BE BETTER SAMPLED FOR ANOTHER
24+ HOURS. AGREE WITH WPC...THE KEY WILL BE WHERE THE LOW PASSES
IN REGARD TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WITH THE GFS LEANING ABOUT
50-100 NM E AND THE ECMWF CLOSER TO BUT W OF IT. ECENS MEAN SEEMS
TO SPLIT THIS DIFFERENCE WELL...AND GIVEN WPC/S PREFERENCE FOR IT
AS WELL...WILL LEAN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS UPDATE CLOSER TO
IT/S THINKING...ALTHOUGH ESSENTIALLY THIS IS CLOSE TO A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND IN SPITE OF THE FACT THE ECMWF IS WELL W OF THE BENCHMARK.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STORM ITSELF...HOW EFFICIENTLY IT
IS ABLE TO DRAW IN THE COLDER AIR FROM THE LONGWAVE TROF TO THE W
REMAINS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT A TREND TOWARD COLDER CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...
MAINLY DRY FORECAST HERE ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY MON NIGHT AS UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH
ALONG WITH WEAKENING COLD FRONT. COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W AND SO
IN SPITE OF COLD ADVECTION W-FLOW...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR TO
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WED INTO THU...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY HERE FOR
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT
PLAY. IN ANY CASE...DO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN A MORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE SE MA
COASTLINE...MAKING IT/S CLOSEST PASS ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT...DIPPING BELOW 1000MB. THE EXACT TRACK IS THE MAIN QUESTION
AND AS SUCH...WHAT THE THERMAL PROFILE IS MOST LIKELY TO LOOK
LIKE. AT THIS TIME...0C H92 LINE VARIES BETWEEN JUST W OF THE BOS-
PVD CORRIDOR TO OFFSHORE...SO EXACTLY WHERE ANY RAIN/SNOW LINE
DEVELOPS REMAIN IN FLUX. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AS POINTED OUT BY THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WETBULB/DYNAMIC COOLING ARE LIKELY TO LEAD
TO COOLER TEMPS THAN THE STRAIGHT 2M MODEL TEMPS WOULD
INDICATE...SO EVEN WITH THE FURTHER E TRACK...SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
HOW MUCH IS JUST TOO UNCERTAIN TO CALL GIVEN NOT JUST THE THERMAL
PROFILE ISSUES... THERE IS A BANDING SIGNAL AND TROWAL SIGNATURE
TOWARD THE NE QUADRANT. WHICH COULD PROVIDE DYNAMIC COOLING.

WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR A COASTAL
STORM...WITH WINTERY PRECIP AND POSSIBLY EVEN PLOWABLE SNOW
DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK FOR THE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THANKSGIVING MORNING TIMEFRAME.  EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW AND WHERE
RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP REMAINS IN QUESTION. BUT PRECIP IS LIKELY TO
LEAN E GIVEN SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN ON THE RAIN SIDE AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS IF THE TRACK IS CLOSER.  COULD ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT
GRADIENT BETWEEN WRN MA/CT/NH AND EARN MA/RI IN SNOW/RAINFALL.
ALSO...AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...COASTAL FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN THE RAPID MOVEMENT /LACK OF DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING/ AND LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. ALL THESE FEATURES WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THEY WILL BEGIN DURING A VERY BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD
ON WED.

FRI...
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW
PRES...EXPECT A TREND TOWARD DRIER BUT COLDER WEATHER BY LATE IN
THE WEEK.

NEXT WEEKEND...
AS CORE OF COLD AIR TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OVER...EXPECT TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES/CLIPPER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR BERKSHIRES AND
MONADNOCKS. SCT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS W AND CENTRAL MA WITH ISOLD
-FZRA IN THE BERKSHIRES. SW GUSTS TO 35 KT CAPE/ISLANDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH 12Z. AREAS OF LLWS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
CT VALLEY WHERE SFC WINDS SOUTH AND 2K WINDS WEST AROUND 40 KT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR-IFR AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY
HEAVY MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING AROUND 06Z
CT VALLEY AND REACHING E COAST BY 10Z. ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE MON
MORNING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. RAIN TAPERS OFF 12-16Z W TO E BUT
IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE IN. A PERIOD OF S WIND GUSTS TO
30-40 KT POSSIBLE 12-16Z MON ALONG THE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS...THEN SW GUSTS TO 30 KT COASTAL PLAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT CT VALLEY
SHIFTING TO SE NEW ENG MON MORNING AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
50-60 KT DEVELOPS AT 2K FT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS MAINLY N OF TERMINAL.
LLWS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. BUT A
FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT ESPECIALLY MAY YIELD MVFR
CONDITIONS.  W-SW WIND GUSTS ABOUT 20-25 KT AT TIMES EACH DAY.

WED INTO THU...LOW CONFIDENCE.  A COASTAL LOW PRES WILL MOVE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN JUST ONSHORE OF SE MA OR OFFSHORE.  GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW/RAIN
POTENTIAL...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EACH WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW. NE WINDS COULD ALSO GUST 25+ OR MORE EITHER DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SW GUSTS 25-30 KT SE WATERS EARLY...OTHERWISE DIMINISHING WIND
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN GUSTY S WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS WHICH WILL
LIKELY LIMIT GUSTS AND PREVENT STRONG WINDS FROM MIXING
DOWN. HOWEVER GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE JET...GALE FORCE GUSTS TO
35-40 KT SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS
WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH VERY LONG FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS MAINLY SW-W AND GUSTS 25-30 KT
INTO EARLY TUE.  SEAS ALSO AROUND 8-10 FT.  BOTH WINDS AND SEAS DROP
OFF LATE TUE TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF LULL EXPECTED INTO EARLY WED.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ON TUE.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
NEAR 40N/70W...THIS WILL YIELD BUILDING SWELL AND WINDS SHIFTING
FROM NE LATE WED TO WNW BY LATE THU.  DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE
STORM COMES...HEAVY RAIN AND AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  GALES ALSO A POSSIBILITY.  VISIBILITIES
DROP IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE MON MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1-2
FT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHICH MAY BRING SOME
LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE
TO SOUTHERLY FETCH. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230925
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
425 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MILD TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS BUT DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM MAY BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY. COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCT SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. TEMPS ARE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S SO PTYPE IS RAIN...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS IN W
MA REPORTING 32-33 DEGREES PER MESONET SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED POCKET OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...MAINLY BERKSHIRES. PRECIP
WILL END BY DAYBREAK. FURTHER SOUTH...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS
LOW LEVELS ARE CONSIDERABLY DRIER.

FOR TODAY...WEAK SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS ENOUGH MID
LEVEL DRYING FOR SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A MILD AFTERNOON. 2M TEMPS SUGGEST MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 40S IN THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN. 925 MB
TEMPS 8-10C SO THERE IS A CHANCE TEMPS COULD BE EVEN MILDER IF
THERE IS ENOUGH SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GT
LAKES LATE TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE S. GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ENHANCED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. GEFS
SHOWING PWAT ANOMALY INCREASING TO +3SD AND LOW LEVEL JET REACHES
+4SD IN SNE AROUND 12Z MON SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND WE ARE ONLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
0.50-1.00" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MAIN THREAT IS TYPICAL
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING BUT THIS WILL BE OCCURRING DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
MON MORNING AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MONDAY MORNING
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. NAM IS MOST ROBUST WITH THE LOW LEVEL
NEARING 75 KT AT 925 MB WHILE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING 65-70 KT.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD INVERSION WHICH WILL LIMIT THESE WINDS FROM
MIXING DOWN. A FINE LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH COULD HELP TO BRING
DOWN THESE WINDS TO THE SFC IS NOT LIKELY AS INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL AND THERE IS NOT A COLD FRONT WHICH TYPICALLY PROVIDES A
FOCUS FOR THESE FINE LINES. TAKING ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THE JET
SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK AT 40-45 MPH WHICH IS NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. BEST CHANCE OF REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL
BE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...EARLIER IN WESTERN
NEW ENG...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS WILL
APPROACH 60 WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS TO 30-35 MPH IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. 925 MB TEMPS ARE QUITE MILD NEAR +15C WHICH WOULD NORMALLY
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S BUT THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
HEATING. IF WE CAN GET ANY SUN...70+ WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MILD BUT WINDY ON TUESDAY
* COASTAL STORM WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE WED-THU WITH UNCERTAINTY
* COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
23.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID TERM PERIOD...INCLUDING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
LONGWAVE TROF BY MID- LATE WEEK ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
THE PRIMARY MODEL ISSUES AND DISAGREEMENTS ARE STILL REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED-THU. THIS DISAGREEMENT IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL WRAPPED IN THE NEAR
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS LOW...AND MAY NOT BE BETTER SAMPLED FOR ANOTHER
24+ HOURS. AGREE WITH WPC...THE KEY WILL BE WHERE THE LOW PASSES
IN REGARD TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WITH THE GFS LEANING ABOUT
50-100 NM E AND THE ECMWF CLOSER TO BUT W OF IT. ECENS MEAN SEEMS
TO SPLIT THIS DIFFERENCE WELL...AND GIVEN WPC/S PREFERENCE FOR IT
AS WELL...WILL LEAN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS UPDATE CLOSER TO
IT/S THINKING...ALTHOUGH ESSENTIALLY THIS IS CLOSE TO A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND IN SPITE OF THE FACT THE ECMWF IS WELL W OF THE BENCHMARK.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STORM ITSELF...HOW EFFICIENTLY IT
IS ABLE TO DRAW IN THE COLDER AIR FROM THE LONGWAVE TROF TO THE W
REMAINS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT A TREND TOWARD COLDER CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...
MAINLY DRY FORECAST HERE ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY MON NIGHT AS UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH
ALONG WITH WEAKENING COLD FRONT. COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W AND SO
IN SPITE OF COLD ADVECTION W-FLOW...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR TO
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WED INTO THU...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY HERE FOR
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT
PLAY. IN ANY CASE...DO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN A MORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE SE MA
COASTLINE...MAKING IT/S CLOSEST PASS ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT...DIPPING BELOW 1000MB. THE EXACT TRACK IS THE MAIN QUESTION
AND AS SUCH...WHAT THE THERMAL PROFILE IS MOST LIKELY TO LOOK
LIKE. AT THIS TIME...0C H92 LINE VARIES BETWEEN JUST W OF THE BOS-
PVD CORRIDOR TO OFFSHORE...SO EXACTLY WHERE ANY RAIN/SNOW LINE
DEVELOPS REMAIN IN FLUX. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AS POINTED OUT BY THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WETBULB/DYNAMIC COOLING ARE LIKELY TO LEAD
TO COOLER TEMPS THAN THE STRAIGHT 2M MODEL TEMPS WOULD
INDICATE...SO EVEN WITH THE FURTHER E TRACK...SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
HOW MUCH IS JUST TOO UNCERTAIN TO CALL GIVEN NOT JUST THE THERMAL
PROFILE ISSUES... THERE IS A BANDING SIGNAL AND TROWAL SIGNATURE
TOWARD THE NE QUADRANT. WHICH COULD PROVIDE DYNAMIC COOLING.

WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR A COASTAL
STORM...WITH WINTERY PRECIP AND POSSIBLY EVEN PLOWABLE SNOW
DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK FOR THE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THANKSGIVING MORNING TIMEFRAME.  EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW AND WHERE
RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP REMAINS IN QUESTION. BUT PRECIP IS LIKELY TO
LEAN E GIVEN SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN ON THE RAIN SIDE AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS IF THE TRACK IS CLOSER.  COULD ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT
GRADIENT BETWEEN WRN MA/CT/NH AND EARN MA/RI IN SNOW/RAINFALL.
ALSO...AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...COASTAL FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN THE RAPID MOVEMENT /LACK OF DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING/ AND LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. ALL THESE FEATURES WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THEY WILL BEGIN DURING A VERY BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD
ON WED.

FRI...
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW
PRES...EXPECT A TREND TOWARD DRIER BUT COLDER WEATHER BY LATE IN
THE WEEK.

NEXT WEEKEND...
AS CORE OF COLD AIR TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OVER...EXPECT TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES/CLIPPER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR BERKSHIRES AND
MONADNOCKS. SCT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS W AND CENTRAL MA WITH ISOLD
-FZRA IN THE BERKSHIRES. SW GUSTS TO 35 KT CAPE/ISLANDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH 12Z. AREAS OF LLWS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
CT VALLEY WHERE SFC WINDS SOUTH AND 2K WINDS WEST AROUND 40 KT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR-IFR AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY
HEAVY MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING AROUND 06Z
CT VALLEY AND REACHING E COAST BY 10Z. ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE MON
MORNING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. RAIN TAPERS OFF 12-16Z W TO E BUT
IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE IN. A PERIOD OF S WIND GUSTS TO
30-40 KT POSSIBLE 12-16Z MON ALONG THE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS...THEN SW GUSTS TO 30 KT COASTAL PLAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT CT VALLEY
SHIFTING TO SE NEW ENG MON MORNING AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
50-60 KT DEVELOPS AT 2K FT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS MAINLY N OF TERMINAL.
LLWS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. BUT A
FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT ESPECIALLY MAY YIELD MVFR
CONDITIONS.  W-SW WIND GUSTS ABOUT 20-25 KT AT TIMES EACH DAY.

WED INTO THU...LOW CONFIDENCE.  A COASTAL LOW PRES WILL MOVE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN JUST ONSHORE OF SE MA OR OFFSHORE.  GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW/RAIN
POTENTIAL...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EACH WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW. NE WINDS COULD ALSO GUST 25+ OR MORE EITHER DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SW GUSTS 25-30 KT SE WATERS EARLY...OTHERWISE DIMINISHING WIND
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN GUSTY S WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS WHICH WILL
LIKELY LIMIT GUSTS AND PREVENT STRONG WINDS FROM MIXING
DOWN. HOWEVER GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE JET...GALE FORCE GUSTS TO
35-40 KT SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS
WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH VERY LONG FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS MAINLY SW-W AND GUSTS 25-30 KT
INTO EARLY TUE.  SEAS ALSO AROUND 8-10 FT.  BOTH WINDS AND SEAS DROP
OFF LATE TUE TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF LULL EXPECTED INTO EARLY WED.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ON TUE.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
NEAR 40N/70W...THIS WILL YIELD BUILDING SWELL AND WINDS SHIFTING
FROM NE LATE WED TO WNW BY LATE THU.  DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE
STORM COMES...HEAVY RAIN AND AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  GALES ALSO A POSSIBILITY.  VISIBILITIES
DROP IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE MON MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1-2
FT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHICH MAY BRING SOME
LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE
TO SOUTHERLY FETCH. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230925
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
425 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MILD TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS BUT DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM MAY BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY. COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCT SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. TEMPS ARE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S SO PTYPE IS RAIN...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS IN W
MA REPORTING 32-33 DEGREES PER MESONET SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED POCKET OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...MAINLY BERKSHIRES. PRECIP
WILL END BY DAYBREAK. FURTHER SOUTH...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS
LOW LEVELS ARE CONSIDERABLY DRIER.

FOR TODAY...WEAK SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS ENOUGH MID
LEVEL DRYING FOR SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A MILD AFTERNOON. 2M TEMPS SUGGEST MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 40S IN THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN. 925 MB
TEMPS 8-10C SO THERE IS A CHANCE TEMPS COULD BE EVEN MILDER IF
THERE IS ENOUGH SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GT
LAKES LATE TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE S. GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ENHANCED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. GEFS
SHOWING PWAT ANOMALY INCREASING TO +3SD AND LOW LEVEL JET REACHES
+4SD IN SNE AROUND 12Z MON SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND WE ARE ONLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
0.50-1.00" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MAIN THREAT IS TYPICAL
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING BUT THIS WILL BE OCCURRING DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
MON MORNING AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MONDAY MORNING
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. NAM IS MOST ROBUST WITH THE LOW LEVEL
NEARING 75 KT AT 925 MB WHILE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING 65-70 KT.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD INVERSION WHICH WILL LIMIT THESE WINDS FROM
MIXING DOWN. A FINE LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH COULD HELP TO BRING
DOWN THESE WINDS TO THE SFC IS NOT LIKELY AS INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL AND THERE IS NOT A COLD FRONT WHICH TYPICALLY PROVIDES A
FOCUS FOR THESE FINE LINES. TAKING ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THE JET
SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK AT 40-45 MPH WHICH IS NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. BEST CHANCE OF REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL
BE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...EARLIER IN WESTERN
NEW ENG...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS WILL
APPROACH 60 WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS TO 30-35 MPH IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. 925 MB TEMPS ARE QUITE MILD NEAR +15C WHICH WOULD NORMALLY
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S BUT THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
HEATING. IF WE CAN GET ANY SUN...70+ WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MILD BUT WINDY ON TUESDAY
* COASTAL STORM WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE WED-THU WITH UNCERTAINTY
* COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
23.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID TERM PERIOD...INCLUDING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
LONGWAVE TROF BY MID- LATE WEEK ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
THE PRIMARY MODEL ISSUES AND DISAGREEMENTS ARE STILL REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED-THU. THIS DISAGREEMENT IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL WRAPPED IN THE NEAR
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS LOW...AND MAY NOT BE BETTER SAMPLED FOR ANOTHER
24+ HOURS. AGREE WITH WPC...THE KEY WILL BE WHERE THE LOW PASSES
IN REGARD TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WITH THE GFS LEANING ABOUT
50-100 NM E AND THE ECMWF CLOSER TO BUT W OF IT. ECENS MEAN SEEMS
TO SPLIT THIS DIFFERENCE WELL...AND GIVEN WPC/S PREFERENCE FOR IT
AS WELL...WILL LEAN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS UPDATE CLOSER TO
IT/S THINKING...ALTHOUGH ESSENTIALLY THIS IS CLOSE TO A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND IN SPITE OF THE FACT THE ECMWF IS WELL W OF THE BENCHMARK.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STORM ITSELF...HOW EFFICIENTLY IT
IS ABLE TO DRAW IN THE COLDER AIR FROM THE LONGWAVE TROF TO THE W
REMAINS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT A TREND TOWARD COLDER CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...
MAINLY DRY FORECAST HERE ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY MON NIGHT AS UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH
ALONG WITH WEAKENING COLD FRONT. COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W AND SO
IN SPITE OF COLD ADVECTION W-FLOW...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR TO
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WED INTO THU...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY HERE FOR
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT
PLAY. IN ANY CASE...DO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN A MORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE SE MA
COASTLINE...MAKING IT/S CLOSEST PASS ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT...DIPPING BELOW 1000MB. THE EXACT TRACK IS THE MAIN QUESTION
AND AS SUCH...WHAT THE THERMAL PROFILE IS MOST LIKELY TO LOOK
LIKE. AT THIS TIME...0C H92 LINE VARIES BETWEEN JUST W OF THE BOS-
PVD CORRIDOR TO OFFSHORE...SO EXACTLY WHERE ANY RAIN/SNOW LINE
DEVELOPS REMAIN IN FLUX. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AS POINTED OUT BY THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WETBULB/DYNAMIC COOLING ARE LIKELY TO LEAD
TO COOLER TEMPS THAN THE STRAIGHT 2M MODEL TEMPS WOULD
INDICATE...SO EVEN WITH THE FURTHER E TRACK...SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
HOW MUCH IS JUST TOO UNCERTAIN TO CALL GIVEN NOT JUST THE THERMAL
PROFILE ISSUES... THERE IS A BANDING SIGNAL AND TROWAL SIGNATURE
TOWARD THE NE QUADRANT. WHICH COULD PROVIDE DYNAMIC COOLING.

WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR A COASTAL
STORM...WITH WINTERY PRECIP AND POSSIBLY EVEN PLOWABLE SNOW
DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK FOR THE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THANKSGIVING MORNING TIMEFRAME.  EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW AND WHERE
RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP REMAINS IN QUESTION. BUT PRECIP IS LIKELY TO
LEAN E GIVEN SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN ON THE RAIN SIDE AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS IF THE TRACK IS CLOSER.  COULD ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT
GRADIENT BETWEEN WRN MA/CT/NH AND EARN MA/RI IN SNOW/RAINFALL.
ALSO...AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...COASTAL FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN THE RAPID MOVEMENT /LACK OF DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING/ AND LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. ALL THESE FEATURES WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THEY WILL BEGIN DURING A VERY BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD
ON WED.

FRI...
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW
PRES...EXPECT A TREND TOWARD DRIER BUT COLDER WEATHER BY LATE IN
THE WEEK.

NEXT WEEKEND...
AS CORE OF COLD AIR TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OVER...EXPECT TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES/CLIPPER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR BERKSHIRES AND
MONADNOCKS. SCT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS W AND CENTRAL MA WITH ISOLD
-FZRA IN THE BERKSHIRES. SW GUSTS TO 35 KT CAPE/ISLANDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH 12Z. AREAS OF LLWS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
CT VALLEY WHERE SFC WINDS SOUTH AND 2K WINDS WEST AROUND 40 KT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR-IFR AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY
HEAVY MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING AROUND 06Z
CT VALLEY AND REACHING E COAST BY 10Z. ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE MON
MORNING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. RAIN TAPERS OFF 12-16Z W TO E BUT
IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE IN. A PERIOD OF S WIND GUSTS TO
30-40 KT POSSIBLE 12-16Z MON ALONG THE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS...THEN SW GUSTS TO 30 KT COASTAL PLAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT CT VALLEY
SHIFTING TO SE NEW ENG MON MORNING AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
50-60 KT DEVELOPS AT 2K FT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS MAINLY N OF TERMINAL.
LLWS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. BUT A
FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT ESPECIALLY MAY YIELD MVFR
CONDITIONS.  W-SW WIND GUSTS ABOUT 20-25 KT AT TIMES EACH DAY.

WED INTO THU...LOW CONFIDENCE.  A COASTAL LOW PRES WILL MOVE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN JUST ONSHORE OF SE MA OR OFFSHORE.  GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW/RAIN
POTENTIAL...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EACH WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW. NE WINDS COULD ALSO GUST 25+ OR MORE EITHER DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SW GUSTS 25-30 KT SE WATERS EARLY...OTHERWISE DIMINISHING WIND
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN GUSTY S WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS WHICH WILL
LIKELY LIMIT GUSTS AND PREVENT STRONG WINDS FROM MIXING
DOWN. HOWEVER GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE JET...GALE FORCE GUSTS TO
35-40 KT SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS
WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH VERY LONG FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS MAINLY SW-W AND GUSTS 25-30 KT
INTO EARLY TUE.  SEAS ALSO AROUND 8-10 FT.  BOTH WINDS AND SEAS DROP
OFF LATE TUE TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF LULL EXPECTED INTO EARLY WED.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ON TUE.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
NEAR 40N/70W...THIS WILL YIELD BUILDING SWELL AND WINDS SHIFTING
FROM NE LATE WED TO WNW BY LATE THU.  DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE
STORM COMES...HEAVY RAIN AND AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  GALES ALSO A POSSIBILITY.  VISIBILITIES
DROP IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE MON MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1-2
FT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHICH MAY BRING SOME
LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE
TO SOUTHERLY FETCH. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230925
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
425 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MILD TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS BUT DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM MAY BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY. COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCT SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. TEMPS ARE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S SO PTYPE IS RAIN...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS IN W
MA REPORTING 32-33 DEGREES PER MESONET SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED POCKET OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...MAINLY BERKSHIRES. PRECIP
WILL END BY DAYBREAK. FURTHER SOUTH...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS
LOW LEVELS ARE CONSIDERABLY DRIER.

FOR TODAY...WEAK SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS ENOUGH MID
LEVEL DRYING FOR SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A MILD AFTERNOON. 2M TEMPS SUGGEST MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 40S IN THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN. 925 MB
TEMPS 8-10C SO THERE IS A CHANCE TEMPS COULD BE EVEN MILDER IF
THERE IS ENOUGH SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GT
LAKES LATE TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE S. GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ENHANCED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. GEFS
SHOWING PWAT ANOMALY INCREASING TO +3SD AND LOW LEVEL JET REACHES
+4SD IN SNE AROUND 12Z MON SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND WE ARE ONLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
0.50-1.00" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MAIN THREAT IS TYPICAL
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING BUT THIS WILL BE OCCURRING DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
MON MORNING AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MONDAY MORNING
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. NAM IS MOST ROBUST WITH THE LOW LEVEL
NEARING 75 KT AT 925 MB WHILE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING 65-70 KT.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD INVERSION WHICH WILL LIMIT THESE WINDS FROM
MIXING DOWN. A FINE LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH COULD HELP TO BRING
DOWN THESE WINDS TO THE SFC IS NOT LIKELY AS INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL AND THERE IS NOT A COLD FRONT WHICH TYPICALLY PROVIDES A
FOCUS FOR THESE FINE LINES. TAKING ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THE JET
SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK AT 40-45 MPH WHICH IS NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. BEST CHANCE OF REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL
BE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...EARLIER IN WESTERN
NEW ENG...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS WILL
APPROACH 60 WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS TO 30-35 MPH IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. 925 MB TEMPS ARE QUITE MILD NEAR +15C WHICH WOULD NORMALLY
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S BUT THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
HEATING. IF WE CAN GET ANY SUN...70+ WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MILD BUT WINDY ON TUESDAY
* COASTAL STORM WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE WED-THU WITH UNCERTAINTY
* COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
23.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID TERM PERIOD...INCLUDING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
LONGWAVE TROF BY MID- LATE WEEK ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
THE PRIMARY MODEL ISSUES AND DISAGREEMENTS ARE STILL REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED-THU. THIS DISAGREEMENT IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL WRAPPED IN THE NEAR
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS LOW...AND MAY NOT BE BETTER SAMPLED FOR ANOTHER
24+ HOURS. AGREE WITH WPC...THE KEY WILL BE WHERE THE LOW PASSES
IN REGARD TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WITH THE GFS LEANING ABOUT
50-100 NM E AND THE ECMWF CLOSER TO BUT W OF IT. ECENS MEAN SEEMS
TO SPLIT THIS DIFFERENCE WELL...AND GIVEN WPC/S PREFERENCE FOR IT
AS WELL...WILL LEAN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS UPDATE CLOSER TO
IT/S THINKING...ALTHOUGH ESSENTIALLY THIS IS CLOSE TO A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND IN SPITE OF THE FACT THE ECMWF IS WELL W OF THE BENCHMARK.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STORM ITSELF...HOW EFFICIENTLY IT
IS ABLE TO DRAW IN THE COLDER AIR FROM THE LONGWAVE TROF TO THE W
REMAINS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT A TREND TOWARD COLDER CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...
MAINLY DRY FORECAST HERE ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY MON NIGHT AS UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH
ALONG WITH WEAKENING COLD FRONT. COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W AND SO
IN SPITE OF COLD ADVECTION W-FLOW...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR TO
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WED INTO THU...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY HERE FOR
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT
PLAY. IN ANY CASE...DO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN A MORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE SE MA
COASTLINE...MAKING IT/S CLOSEST PASS ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT...DIPPING BELOW 1000MB. THE EXACT TRACK IS THE MAIN QUESTION
AND AS SUCH...WHAT THE THERMAL PROFILE IS MOST LIKELY TO LOOK
LIKE. AT THIS TIME...0C H92 LINE VARIES BETWEEN JUST W OF THE BOS-
PVD CORRIDOR TO OFFSHORE...SO EXACTLY WHERE ANY RAIN/SNOW LINE
DEVELOPS REMAIN IN FLUX. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AS POINTED OUT BY THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WETBULB/DYNAMIC COOLING ARE LIKELY TO LEAD
TO COOLER TEMPS THAN THE STRAIGHT 2M MODEL TEMPS WOULD
INDICATE...SO EVEN WITH THE FURTHER E TRACK...SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
HOW MUCH IS JUST TOO UNCERTAIN TO CALL GIVEN NOT JUST THE THERMAL
PROFILE ISSUES... THERE IS A BANDING SIGNAL AND TROWAL SIGNATURE
TOWARD THE NE QUADRANT. WHICH COULD PROVIDE DYNAMIC COOLING.

WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR A COASTAL
STORM...WITH WINTERY PRECIP AND POSSIBLY EVEN PLOWABLE SNOW
DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK FOR THE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THANKSGIVING MORNING TIMEFRAME.  EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW AND WHERE
RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP REMAINS IN QUESTION. BUT PRECIP IS LIKELY TO
LEAN E GIVEN SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN ON THE RAIN SIDE AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS IF THE TRACK IS CLOSER.  COULD ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT
GRADIENT BETWEEN WRN MA/CT/NH AND EARN MA/RI IN SNOW/RAINFALL.
ALSO...AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...COASTAL FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN THE RAPID MOVEMENT /LACK OF DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING/ AND LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. ALL THESE FEATURES WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THEY WILL BEGIN DURING A VERY BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD
ON WED.

FRI...
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW
PRES...EXPECT A TREND TOWARD DRIER BUT COLDER WEATHER BY LATE IN
THE WEEK.

NEXT WEEKEND...
AS CORE OF COLD AIR TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OVER...EXPECT TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES/CLIPPER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR BERKSHIRES AND
MONADNOCKS. SCT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS W AND CENTRAL MA WITH ISOLD
-FZRA IN THE BERKSHIRES. SW GUSTS TO 35 KT CAPE/ISLANDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH 12Z. AREAS OF LLWS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
CT VALLEY WHERE SFC WINDS SOUTH AND 2K WINDS WEST AROUND 40 KT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR-IFR AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY
HEAVY MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING AROUND 06Z
CT VALLEY AND REACHING E COAST BY 10Z. ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE MON
MORNING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. RAIN TAPERS OFF 12-16Z W TO E BUT
IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE IN. A PERIOD OF S WIND GUSTS TO
30-40 KT POSSIBLE 12-16Z MON ALONG THE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS...THEN SW GUSTS TO 30 KT COASTAL PLAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT CT VALLEY
SHIFTING TO SE NEW ENG MON MORNING AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
50-60 KT DEVELOPS AT 2K FT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS MAINLY N OF TERMINAL.
LLWS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. BUT A
FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT ESPECIALLY MAY YIELD MVFR
CONDITIONS.  W-SW WIND GUSTS ABOUT 20-25 KT AT TIMES EACH DAY.

WED INTO THU...LOW CONFIDENCE.  A COASTAL LOW PRES WILL MOVE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN JUST ONSHORE OF SE MA OR OFFSHORE.  GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW/RAIN
POTENTIAL...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EACH WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW. NE WINDS COULD ALSO GUST 25+ OR MORE EITHER DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SW GUSTS 25-30 KT SE WATERS EARLY...OTHERWISE DIMINISHING WIND
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN GUSTY S WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS WHICH WILL
LIKELY LIMIT GUSTS AND PREVENT STRONG WINDS FROM MIXING
DOWN. HOWEVER GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE JET...GALE FORCE GUSTS TO
35-40 KT SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS
WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH VERY LONG FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS MAINLY SW-W AND GUSTS 25-30 KT
INTO EARLY TUE.  SEAS ALSO AROUND 8-10 FT.  BOTH WINDS AND SEAS DROP
OFF LATE TUE TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF LULL EXPECTED INTO EARLY WED.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ON TUE.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
NEAR 40N/70W...THIS WILL YIELD BUILDING SWELL AND WINDS SHIFTING
FROM NE LATE WED TO WNW BY LATE THU.  DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE
STORM COMES...HEAVY RAIN AND AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  GALES ALSO A POSSIBILITY.  VISIBILITIES
DROP IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE MON MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1-2
FT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHICH MAY BRING SOME
LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE
TO SOUTHERLY FETCH. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC




000
FXUS61 KGYX 230825
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
325 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN
AREAS EARLY TODAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL
AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL
DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER HAS WARMED SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST WAVE OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ON NWS RADAR MOSAIC WAS ENTERING
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AS OF 07Z. THIS AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND
EXIT THE COAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED IMPULSE THIS MORNING. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE GREATLY REDUCED...THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINE HAS BEEN DROPPED WITH THE 3 AM
FORECAST PACKAGE. BEHIND THE IMPULSE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS
WILL ACTUALLY BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW 50 DEGREE NUMBERS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE SHORT LIVED...AS THE NEXT IMPULSE
AND ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST VERTICAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT A FEW
NORTHERN INTERIOR VALLEYS COULD SEE SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
DRIZZLE FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S.

OCCASIONAL RAIN AND MILD ON MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT PRESSES NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RAIN DIMINISHING TO DRIZZLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A RATHER BREEZY AND BALMY DAY WITH HIGHS OF 50 TO 60
AVERAGING A FULL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE COLDER
AIR BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. A FEW
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE A DRY DAY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A POTENT COASTAL
STORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WEDNESDAY/ THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY BREAK... IF THIS DOES COME TO FRUITION WE EXPECT MAJOR
INTERRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO GET TO THEIR
DESTINATIONS EARLY IF POSSIBLE. POPS WERE INCREASED BUT NOT OVERLY
SO TO MAKE ROOM FOR POSSIBLE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING.

LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO FALL EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG WARM FRONT COMES ONSHORE. NORTH OF THE
FRONT... FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR SNOW
TO FALL. AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY NORTH... SO WILL THE WARMER
AIR ALLOWING SNOW TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM... WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THIS WILL BE
A TRAVEL HAZARD ONLY IN THAT IT WILL BE A STEADY... PERSISTENT
RAINFALL ON A HEAVY TRAVEL DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN A BAND CENTERED NEAR
THE COAST... WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM LONG ISLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND THURSDAY
MORNING AND PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MIDCOAST AND THE
NORTH. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD FALL JUST INLAND FROM NEAR
FARMINGTON TO NEAR BANGOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE REAL
COLD AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS ARCTIC AIR TO SETTLE IN FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...AREAS OF MVFR TODAY IN CEILINGS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR DEVELOPS MONDAY MORNING WITH WARM FRONTAL RAINS
WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. VFR MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT MTN MVFR IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...IFR TO LIFR IN SNOW OR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND THEN VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... WINDS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AND THE
GALE HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT UNTIL 18Z
TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES WITH
A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 230825
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
325 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN
AREAS EARLY TODAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL
AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL
DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER HAS WARMED SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST WAVE OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ON NWS RADAR MOSAIC WAS ENTERING
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AS OF 07Z. THIS AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND
EXIT THE COAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED IMPULSE THIS MORNING. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE GREATLY REDUCED...THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINE HAS BEEN DROPPED WITH THE 3 AM
FORECAST PACKAGE. BEHIND THE IMPULSE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS
WILL ACTUALLY BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW 50 DEGREE NUMBERS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE SHORT LIVED...AS THE NEXT IMPULSE
AND ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST VERTICAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT A FEW
NORTHERN INTERIOR VALLEYS COULD SEE SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
DRIZZLE FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S.

OCCASIONAL RAIN AND MILD ON MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT PRESSES NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RAIN DIMINISHING TO DRIZZLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A RATHER BREEZY AND BALMY DAY WITH HIGHS OF 50 TO 60
AVERAGING A FULL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE COLDER
AIR BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. A FEW
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE A DRY DAY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A POTENT COASTAL
STORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WEDNESDAY/ THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY BREAK... IF THIS DOES COME TO FRUITION WE EXPECT MAJOR
INTERRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO GET TO THEIR
DESTINATIONS EARLY IF POSSIBLE. POPS WERE INCREASED BUT NOT OVERLY
SO TO MAKE ROOM FOR POSSIBLE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING.

LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO FALL EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG WARM FRONT COMES ONSHORE. NORTH OF THE
FRONT... FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR SNOW
TO FALL. AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY NORTH... SO WILL THE WARMER
AIR ALLOWING SNOW TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM... WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THIS WILL BE
A TRAVEL HAZARD ONLY IN THAT IT WILL BE A STEADY... PERSISTENT
RAINFALL ON A HEAVY TRAVEL DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN A BAND CENTERED NEAR
THE COAST... WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM LONG ISLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND THURSDAY
MORNING AND PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MIDCOAST AND THE
NORTH. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD FALL JUST INLAND FROM NEAR
FARMINGTON TO NEAR BANGOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE REAL
COLD AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS ARCTIC AIR TO SETTLE IN FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...AREAS OF MVFR TODAY IN CEILINGS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR DEVELOPS MONDAY MORNING WITH WARM FRONTAL RAINS
WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. VFR MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT MTN MVFR IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...IFR TO LIFR IN SNOW OR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND THEN VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... WINDS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AND THE
GALE HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT UNTIL 18Z
TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES WITH
A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/HANES




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230611
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
111 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS ON TAP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT
WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. QUIET AND
MILD TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVING E INTO W MA WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ACROSS E NY. ACTIVITY ASSOCD WITH 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE PLUME. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY IN W
MA ALLOWING GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP
WILL REMAIN ALONG AND N OF THE PIKE WHERE MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS IS GREATER. MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS DECREASES FURTHER S
FROM THE PIKE AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH CT/RI AND
SE MA.

TEMPS IN W MA STILL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 30S...AND LOWER 40S
CT VALLEY AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INDUCING S FLOW. NOTED A FEW
LOCATIONS IN W MA 32-33 DEGREES PER MESONET SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED POCKET OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN...MAINLY BERKSHIRES...BUT THE THREAT IS LOW. GUSTY SW
WINDS TO 30-40 MPH ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
DAYBREAK. TEMPS REMAINING NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

SUNDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AND RESULT IN MID LEVEL DRYING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH MILDER
TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +5C SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RECOVER
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S AND LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE.
GIVEN MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE PRETTY MILD...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF THE
NEXT SHIFT NEEDS TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW MORE DEGREES. GUIDANCE
SEEMS A BIT COOL CONSIDERING THOSE FACTORS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN BE PASSING WELL TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES VERY
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THE WILL CAUSE A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. GEFS IS SHOWING THAT
PWATS INCREASE TO AT LEAST 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH STRONG FORCING AND HIGH PWATS IN PLACE...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED BUT FORTUNATELY SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.
EXPECT MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE ONE HALF TO 1 INCH
TERRITORY ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING...BUT SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE AND THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR.
THERE ALSO IS A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS ON MONDAY. WE COULD SEE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY...BUT INVERSION
SHOULD KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST ABOVE OUR HEADS. THE ONE FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS IF WE CAN GENERATE A LITTLE FINE LINE THAT
COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO BRIEFLY TOUCH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY MORNING.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW LEFT OVER SPOT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL FOR HIGHS GIVEN
850 MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND +10C. SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME
LOCALES APPROACH 70 IF WE CAN MUSTER A FEW PEEKS OF SUN. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN MIX OUT A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD AROUND TUESDAY
- STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING
- GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

ECHO SIMILAR SENTIMENTS PER WPC: MEANINGFUL SHORT-WAVE DIFFERENCES
LEND TO LOW CONFIDENCE...SIGNIFICANT SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN ENERGY LEND TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. WITH UPSTREAM ISSUES IN
HANDLING PACIFIC ENERGY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS OFF THE
E-COAST AND WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE IMPACTS / OUTCOMES UNTIL WE GET
WITHIN 2-3 DAYS OF THE TIMEFRAME.

HAVE ONLY A MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...BELOW-AVERAGE
PREDICTABILITY. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE STORM ITSELF WILL REMAIN ON
THE W-SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS /AGREED UPON BY WPC/
IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK SO DO NOT PREFER A DRY
OUTCOME.

CONSIDER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS ANOMALOUSLY WARM CONDITIONS
HAVE PREVAILED S OF NOVA SCOTIA. LATELY THE TREND HAS BEEN COLD AIR
SURGING S THROUGH THE C-CONUS TO THE GULF WITH NEW ENGLAND AVERAGING
WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER TROUGH. FEEL TREND CONTINUES
WITH THIS FORECAST. LACK OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION...BELIEVE
RIDGING OVER THE W-ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE BULK OF SYNOPTICS ACROSS
OUR REGION.

SO FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY FORECAST. BLUSTERY W/SW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS / SHORES WITH THE
WARMER OCEAN. OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING UP
TO H9. GUSTS OF AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH... STRONGEST OVER THE SHORES AND
ADJACENT WATERS. WILL REMAIN MILD BENEATH THE SW-FLOW. HIGHS TO NEAR-
60S AS A WARMER AIRMASS LINGERS ALOFT.

NOW AS TO THE STORM...

SYNOPTICALLY...SERIES OF PACIFIC WAVES INVOKE / MAINTAIN A H5 OPEN-
WAVE TROUGH STRETCHING S INTO THE GULF. NO UPSTREAM BLOCKING WITH
TELECONNECTIONS OF +AO/+NAO INDICATING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW OF MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES. INTERACTING WITH THE OFFSHORE SW-NE FRONTAL BOUNDARY-
BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED RESULTS IN DEEPENING
SFC-H85 LOW PRESSURE UP ALONG THE W-ATLANTIC PASSING WITHIN VICINITY
OF THE 40N / 70W BENCH-MARK AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY UP AGAINST AN
INTERIOR REGION LACKING OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE / ARCTIC AIR.

INITIALLY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROADSCALE
ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING OF MID- TO LOW-LEVELS DYNAMICALLY
COOLING TOWARDS EVENING SETTING UP THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
STORM. UNDERCUTTING MARGINALLY COLD AIR AIDED BY SURFACE N/NE-FLOW
WITH W/NW AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW OF INTERIOR ORIGIN LOOK TO KEEP THE N/W
INTERIOR AROUND THE FREEZING MARK...MILD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THERMAL FIELDS DIFFICULT TO DIAGNOSE WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.
KEY IS THE TRACK AND LOCATION OF H85 LOW / H925 < -2C. WHILE
LIKELY TO SEE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIR N/W...ANOTHER KEY TO
THE FORECAST TO THE TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS WETBULBING AT THE
SURFACE.

AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...SURFACE LOW LOOKS
TO TRACK WITHIN THE VICINITY OF 40N / 70W BENCHMARK. UNCERTAIN AS TO
DEPTH / STRENGTH / EXACT TRACK. EXPECT STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT BUT
FEEL BEST MOISTURE WILL BE E OF THE LOW WITHIN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT /WCB/. THOUGH FORCING THROUGH A
MOIST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE NW OF THE H85 LOW BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL-JET...HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN E/NE WITH
THE LACK OF A STRONG H7 CLOSED LOW AND LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING
NOR -EPV /CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB LACKING/. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
UNDERCUT BUT MARGINAL /AROUND UPPER-20S TO LOW-30S/. NO NEIGHBORING
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. WETBULBING LIKELY CONTINUES. SNOWS N/W OF
THE H85 LOW WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS TO AMOUNTS /
HEADLINES AS MODEL RUNS /WHILE PERSISTENT/ CONTINUE TO WOBBLE WITH
THE LOW AND POTENTIAL OUTCOMES. ACTIVITY CONCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY
MORNING REARWARD OF WHICH SOME STRONG SW-FLOW IS POSSIBLE. SEE THE
ADDITIONAL DETAILS BELOW:

SNOWS / HEAVY RAIN...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE N/W INTERIOR FOR
SNOW WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER SE MA...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. NOT EVEN DOES CIPS ANALOGS
PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT CONFIDENCE...AND WITH THE WOBBLING OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE TRACK / STRENGTH OF THE LOW...IT IS ANYONES
GUESS AS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

WINDS...SOME CONCERN DEPENDING THE DEPTH OF THE LOW. NE-FLOW AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BE STRONG...BUT SOME CONCERN AFTER THE LOW PASSES
WITH SW-FLOW IMPACTING THE S-COAST. LIKELY TO BE AN ACCOMPANYING
STRONG LOW-LEVEL-JET. WITH THE 22.12Z GFS...CIPS ANALOGS HAVE A
ROBUST CONFIDENCE OVER SE NEW ENGLAND /MAINLY THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS/ FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 MPH...POSSIBLY 40 MPH. BEARS
MONITORING.

COASTAL FLOODING...INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE NE ALONG E MA INTO
CAPE COD BAY. A BRIEF SURGE ANTICIPATED AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE LOW-CENTER PASSAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. THOUGH HIGH TIDES
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE ASTRONOMICALLY LOW /10 FT
FOR BOSTON/. WITH THE SHORT RESIDENCY TIME...AM NOT ANTICIPATING AT
THIS TIME MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS BASED ON THE FORECAST MODEL
PREFERENCE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR BERKSHIRES AND
MONADNOCKS. SCT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS W AND CENTRAL MA WITH ISOLD
-FZRA IN THE BERKSHIRES. SW GUSTS TO 35 KT CAPE/ISLANDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH 12Z. AREAS OF LLWS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THECT
VALLEY WHERE SFC WINDS SOUTH AND 2K WINDS WEST AROUND 40 KT.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR-IFR AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY
HEAVY MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING AROUND 06Z
CT VALLEY AND REACHING E COAST BY 10Z. ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE MON
MORNING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. RAIN TAPERS OFF 12-16Z W TO E BUT
IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE IN. A PERIOD OF S WIND GUSTS TO
30-40 KT POSSIBLE 12-16Z MON ALONG THE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS...THEN SW GUSTS TO 20-30 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON ENTIRE AREA. LLWS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT CT
VALLEY SHIFTING TO SE NEW ENG MON MORNING AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET 50-60 KT DEVELOPS AT 2K FT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS MAINLY N OF TERMINAL.
LLWS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT MONDAY NIGHT. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. THREATS
CONSIDERED ARE STRONG WINDS AND THE THREAT OF +RA ALONG THE SHORES
WITH SNOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EXACT SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN
BUT EXPECTING A MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS. HEIGHT OF THE STORM
WILL BE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

7 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG W/SW FLOW CONTINUES EXCEEDING GALE FORCE. BOATS ACROSS THE
S-WATERS REPORTING GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 KTS AT TIMES. GALE FORCE
WARNINGS CONTINUE WITH THE THREAT OF AVERAGE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35
KTS...ONLY SMALL-CRAFTS FOR NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BOSTON HARBOR
WHICH SHALL REMAIN SHELTERED FROM THE WINDS. SEAS BUILDING 6-10
FEET OVER THE S-WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GUSTY SW WINDS 25-30 KT IN THE MORNING WILL BE DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DROPPING BELOW SCA DURING AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS. LEFT OVER SWELL WILL KEEPS SEAS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WIND WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS SUNDAY
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN LIFT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
ALLOWING A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. THERE WILL BE AN INVERSION AND ITS ALWAYS UNCERTAIN AS
TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. AT THE VERY
LEAST WILL HAVE STRONG SCA TO PERHAPS GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH VERY LONG
FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY THOUGH GUSTS UP TO
30 KTS EXPECTED. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS EXPECTED
INITIALLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE WATERS. THREATS
CONSIDERED ARE GALE-FORCE WINDS AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE WATERS. EXACT SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN BUT EXPECTING SEAS TO ENHANCE
AROUND THE STORM CENTER WHICH LOOKS TO PASS IN VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...VISIBILITIES REDUCED WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-232.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ233>235-
     237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-254-
     255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230611
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
111 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS ON TAP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT
WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. QUIET AND
MILD TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVING E INTO W MA WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ACROSS E NY. ACTIVITY ASSOCD WITH 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE PLUME. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY IN W
MA ALLOWING GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP
WILL REMAIN ALONG AND N OF THE PIKE WHERE MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS IS GREATER. MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS DECREASES FURTHER S
FROM THE PIKE AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH CT/RI AND
SE MA.

TEMPS IN W MA STILL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 30S...AND LOWER 40S
CT VALLEY AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INDUCING S FLOW. NOTED A FEW
LOCATIONS IN W MA 32-33 DEGREES PER MESONET SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED POCKET OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN...MAINLY BERKSHIRES...BUT THE THREAT IS LOW. GUSTY SW
WINDS TO 30-40 MPH ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
DAYBREAK. TEMPS REMAINING NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

SUNDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AND RESULT IN MID LEVEL DRYING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH MILDER
TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +5C SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RECOVER
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S AND LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE.
GIVEN MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE PRETTY MILD...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF THE
NEXT SHIFT NEEDS TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW MORE DEGREES. GUIDANCE
SEEMS A BIT COOL CONSIDERING THOSE FACTORS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN BE PASSING WELL TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES VERY
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THE WILL CAUSE A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. GEFS IS SHOWING THAT
PWATS INCREASE TO AT LEAST 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH STRONG FORCING AND HIGH PWATS IN PLACE...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED BUT FORTUNATELY SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.
EXPECT MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE ONE HALF TO 1 INCH
TERRITORY ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING...BUT SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE AND THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR.
THERE ALSO IS A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS ON MONDAY. WE COULD SEE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY...BUT INVERSION
SHOULD KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST ABOVE OUR HEADS. THE ONE FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS IF WE CAN GENERATE A LITTLE FINE LINE THAT
COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO BRIEFLY TOUCH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY MORNING.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW LEFT OVER SPOT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL FOR HIGHS GIVEN
850 MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND +10C. SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME
LOCALES APPROACH 70 IF WE CAN MUSTER A FEW PEEKS OF SUN. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN MIX OUT A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD AROUND TUESDAY
- STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING
- GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

ECHO SIMILAR SENTIMENTS PER WPC: MEANINGFUL SHORT-WAVE DIFFERENCES
LEND TO LOW CONFIDENCE...SIGNIFICANT SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN ENERGY LEND TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. WITH UPSTREAM ISSUES IN
HANDLING PACIFIC ENERGY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS OFF THE
E-COAST AND WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE IMPACTS / OUTCOMES UNTIL WE GET
WITHIN 2-3 DAYS OF THE TIMEFRAME.

HAVE ONLY A MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...BELOW-AVERAGE
PREDICTABILITY. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE STORM ITSELF WILL REMAIN ON
THE W-SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS /AGREED UPON BY WPC/
IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK SO DO NOT PREFER A DRY
OUTCOME.

CONSIDER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS ANOMALOUSLY WARM CONDITIONS
HAVE PREVAILED S OF NOVA SCOTIA. LATELY THE TREND HAS BEEN COLD AIR
SURGING S THROUGH THE C-CONUS TO THE GULF WITH NEW ENGLAND AVERAGING
WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER TROUGH. FEEL TREND CONTINUES
WITH THIS FORECAST. LACK OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION...BELIEVE
RIDGING OVER THE W-ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE BULK OF SYNOPTICS ACROSS
OUR REGION.

SO FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY FORECAST. BLUSTERY W/SW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS / SHORES WITH THE
WARMER OCEAN. OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING UP
TO H9. GUSTS OF AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH... STRONGEST OVER THE SHORES AND
ADJACENT WATERS. WILL REMAIN MILD BENEATH THE SW-FLOW. HIGHS TO NEAR-
60S AS A WARMER AIRMASS LINGERS ALOFT.

NOW AS TO THE STORM...

SYNOPTICALLY...SERIES OF PACIFIC WAVES INVOKE / MAINTAIN A H5 OPEN-
WAVE TROUGH STRETCHING S INTO THE GULF. NO UPSTREAM BLOCKING WITH
TELECONNECTIONS OF +AO/+NAO INDICATING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW OF MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES. INTERACTING WITH THE OFFSHORE SW-NE FRONTAL BOUNDARY-
BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED RESULTS IN DEEPENING
SFC-H85 LOW PRESSURE UP ALONG THE W-ATLANTIC PASSING WITHIN VICINITY
OF THE 40N / 70W BENCH-MARK AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY UP AGAINST AN
INTERIOR REGION LACKING OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE / ARCTIC AIR.

INITIALLY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROADSCALE
ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING OF MID- TO LOW-LEVELS DYNAMICALLY
COOLING TOWARDS EVENING SETTING UP THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
STORM. UNDERCUTTING MARGINALLY COLD AIR AIDED BY SURFACE N/NE-FLOW
WITH W/NW AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW OF INTERIOR ORIGIN LOOK TO KEEP THE N/W
INTERIOR AROUND THE FREEZING MARK...MILD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THERMAL FIELDS DIFFICULT TO DIAGNOSE WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.
KEY IS THE TRACK AND LOCATION OF H85 LOW / H925 < -2C. WHILE
LIKELY TO SEE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIR N/W...ANOTHER KEY TO
THE FORECAST TO THE TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS WETBULBING AT THE
SURFACE.

AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...SURFACE LOW LOOKS
TO TRACK WITHIN THE VICINITY OF 40N / 70W BENCHMARK. UNCERTAIN AS TO
DEPTH / STRENGTH / EXACT TRACK. EXPECT STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT BUT
FEEL BEST MOISTURE WILL BE E OF THE LOW WITHIN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT /WCB/. THOUGH FORCING THROUGH A
MOIST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE NW OF THE H85 LOW BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL-JET...HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN E/NE WITH
THE LACK OF A STRONG H7 CLOSED LOW AND LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING
NOR -EPV /CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB LACKING/. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
UNDERCUT BUT MARGINAL /AROUND UPPER-20S TO LOW-30S/. NO NEIGHBORING
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. WETBULBING LIKELY CONTINUES. SNOWS N/W OF
THE H85 LOW WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS TO AMOUNTS /
HEADLINES AS MODEL RUNS /WHILE PERSISTENT/ CONTINUE TO WOBBLE WITH
THE LOW AND POTENTIAL OUTCOMES. ACTIVITY CONCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY
MORNING REARWARD OF WHICH SOME STRONG SW-FLOW IS POSSIBLE. SEE THE
ADDITIONAL DETAILS BELOW:

SNOWS / HEAVY RAIN...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE N/W INTERIOR FOR
SNOW WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER SE MA...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. NOT EVEN DOES CIPS ANALOGS
PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT CONFIDENCE...AND WITH THE WOBBLING OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE TRACK / STRENGTH OF THE LOW...IT IS ANYONES
GUESS AS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

WINDS...SOME CONCERN DEPENDING THE DEPTH OF THE LOW. NE-FLOW AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BE STRONG...BUT SOME CONCERN AFTER THE LOW PASSES
WITH SW-FLOW IMPACTING THE S-COAST. LIKELY TO BE AN ACCOMPANYING
STRONG LOW-LEVEL-JET. WITH THE 22.12Z GFS...CIPS ANALOGS HAVE A
ROBUST CONFIDENCE OVER SE NEW ENGLAND /MAINLY THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS/ FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 MPH...POSSIBLY 40 MPH. BEARS
MONITORING.

COASTAL FLOODING...INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE NE ALONG E MA INTO
CAPE COD BAY. A BRIEF SURGE ANTICIPATED AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE LOW-CENTER PASSAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. THOUGH HIGH TIDES
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE ASTRONOMICALLY LOW /10 FT
FOR BOSTON/. WITH THE SHORT RESIDENCY TIME...AM NOT ANTICIPATING AT
THIS TIME MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS BASED ON THE FORECAST MODEL
PREFERENCE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR BERKSHIRES AND
MONADNOCKS. SCT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS W AND CENTRAL MA WITH ISOLD
-FZRA IN THE BERKSHIRES. SW GUSTS TO 35 KT CAPE/ISLANDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH 12Z. AREAS OF LLWS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THECT
VALLEY WHERE SFC WINDS SOUTH AND 2K WINDS WEST AROUND 40 KT.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR-IFR AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY
HEAVY MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING AROUND 06Z
CT VALLEY AND REACHING E COAST BY 10Z. ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE MON
MORNING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. RAIN TAPERS OFF 12-16Z W TO E BUT
IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE IN. A PERIOD OF S WIND GUSTS TO
30-40 KT POSSIBLE 12-16Z MON ALONG THE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS...THEN SW GUSTS TO 20-30 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON ENTIRE AREA. LLWS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT CT
VALLEY SHIFTING TO SE NEW ENG MON MORNING AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET 50-60 KT DEVELOPS AT 2K FT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS MAINLY N OF TERMINAL.
LLWS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT MONDAY NIGHT. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. THREATS
CONSIDERED ARE STRONG WINDS AND THE THREAT OF +RA ALONG THE SHORES
WITH SNOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EXACT SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN
BUT EXPECTING A MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS. HEIGHT OF THE STORM
WILL BE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

7 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG W/SW FLOW CONTINUES EXCEEDING GALE FORCE. BOATS ACROSS THE
S-WATERS REPORTING GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 KTS AT TIMES. GALE FORCE
WARNINGS CONTINUE WITH THE THREAT OF AVERAGE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35
KTS...ONLY SMALL-CRAFTS FOR NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BOSTON HARBOR
WHICH SHALL REMAIN SHELTERED FROM THE WINDS. SEAS BUILDING 6-10
FEET OVER THE S-WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GUSTY SW WINDS 25-30 KT IN THE MORNING WILL BE DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DROPPING BELOW SCA DURING AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS. LEFT OVER SWELL WILL KEEPS SEAS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WIND WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS SUNDAY
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN LIFT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
ALLOWING A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. THERE WILL BE AN INVERSION AND ITS ALWAYS UNCERTAIN AS
TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. AT THE VERY
LEAST WILL HAVE STRONG SCA TO PERHAPS GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH VERY LONG
FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY THOUGH GUSTS UP TO
30 KTS EXPECTED. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS EXPECTED
INITIALLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE WATERS. THREATS
CONSIDERED ARE GALE-FORCE WINDS AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE WATERS. EXACT SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN BUT EXPECTING SEAS TO ENHANCE
AROUND THE STORM CENTER WHICH LOOKS TO PASS IN VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...VISIBILITIES REDUCED WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-232.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ233>235-
     237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-254-
     255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230611
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
111 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS ON TAP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT
WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. QUIET AND
MILD TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVING E INTO W MA WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ACROSS E NY. ACTIVITY ASSOCD WITH 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE PLUME. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY IN W
MA ALLOWING GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP
WILL REMAIN ALONG AND N OF THE PIKE WHERE MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS IS GREATER. MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS DECREASES FURTHER S
FROM THE PIKE AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH CT/RI AND
SE MA.

TEMPS IN W MA STILL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 30S...AND LOWER 40S
CT VALLEY AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INDUCING S FLOW. NOTED A FEW
LOCATIONS IN W MA 32-33 DEGREES PER MESONET SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED POCKET OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN...MAINLY BERKSHIRES...BUT THE THREAT IS LOW. GUSTY SW
WINDS TO 30-40 MPH ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
DAYBREAK. TEMPS REMAINING NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

SUNDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AND RESULT IN MID LEVEL DRYING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH MILDER
TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +5C SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RECOVER
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S AND LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE.
GIVEN MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE PRETTY MILD...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF THE
NEXT SHIFT NEEDS TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW MORE DEGREES. GUIDANCE
SEEMS A BIT COOL CONSIDERING THOSE FACTORS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN BE PASSING WELL TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES VERY
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THE WILL CAUSE A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. GEFS IS SHOWING THAT
PWATS INCREASE TO AT LEAST 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH STRONG FORCING AND HIGH PWATS IN PLACE...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED BUT FORTUNATELY SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.
EXPECT MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE ONE HALF TO 1 INCH
TERRITORY ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING...BUT SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE AND THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR.
THERE ALSO IS A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS ON MONDAY. WE COULD SEE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY...BUT INVERSION
SHOULD KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST ABOVE OUR HEADS. THE ONE FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS IF WE CAN GENERATE A LITTLE FINE LINE THAT
COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO BRIEFLY TOUCH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY MORNING.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW LEFT OVER SPOT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL FOR HIGHS GIVEN
850 MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND +10C. SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME
LOCALES APPROACH 70 IF WE CAN MUSTER A FEW PEEKS OF SUN. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN MIX OUT A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD AROUND TUESDAY
- STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING
- GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

ECHO SIMILAR SENTIMENTS PER WPC: MEANINGFUL SHORT-WAVE DIFFERENCES
LEND TO LOW CONFIDENCE...SIGNIFICANT SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN ENERGY LEND TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. WITH UPSTREAM ISSUES IN
HANDLING PACIFIC ENERGY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS OFF THE
E-COAST AND WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE IMPACTS / OUTCOMES UNTIL WE GET
WITHIN 2-3 DAYS OF THE TIMEFRAME.

HAVE ONLY A MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...BELOW-AVERAGE
PREDICTABILITY. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE STORM ITSELF WILL REMAIN ON
THE W-SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS /AGREED UPON BY WPC/
IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK SO DO NOT PREFER A DRY
OUTCOME.

CONSIDER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS ANOMALOUSLY WARM CONDITIONS
HAVE PREVAILED S OF NOVA SCOTIA. LATELY THE TREND HAS BEEN COLD AIR
SURGING S THROUGH THE C-CONUS TO THE GULF WITH NEW ENGLAND AVERAGING
WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER TROUGH. FEEL TREND CONTINUES
WITH THIS FORECAST. LACK OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION...BELIEVE
RIDGING OVER THE W-ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE BULK OF SYNOPTICS ACROSS
OUR REGION.

SO FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY FORECAST. BLUSTERY W/SW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS / SHORES WITH THE
WARMER OCEAN. OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING UP
TO H9. GUSTS OF AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH... STRONGEST OVER THE SHORES AND
ADJACENT WATERS. WILL REMAIN MILD BENEATH THE SW-FLOW. HIGHS TO NEAR-
60S AS A WARMER AIRMASS LINGERS ALOFT.

NOW AS TO THE STORM...

SYNOPTICALLY...SERIES OF PACIFIC WAVES INVOKE / MAINTAIN A H5 OPEN-
WAVE TROUGH STRETCHING S INTO THE GULF. NO UPSTREAM BLOCKING WITH
TELECONNECTIONS OF +AO/+NAO INDICATING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW OF MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES. INTERACTING WITH THE OFFSHORE SW-NE FRONTAL BOUNDARY-
BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED RESULTS IN DEEPENING
SFC-H85 LOW PRESSURE UP ALONG THE W-ATLANTIC PASSING WITHIN VICINITY
OF THE 40N / 70W BENCH-MARK AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY UP AGAINST AN
INTERIOR REGION LACKING OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE / ARCTIC AIR.

INITIALLY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROADSCALE
ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING OF MID- TO LOW-LEVELS DYNAMICALLY
COOLING TOWARDS EVENING SETTING UP THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
STORM. UNDERCUTTING MARGINALLY COLD AIR AIDED BY SURFACE N/NE-FLOW
WITH W/NW AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW OF INTERIOR ORIGIN LOOK TO KEEP THE N/W
INTERIOR AROUND THE FREEZING MARK...MILD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THERMAL FIELDS DIFFICULT TO DIAGNOSE WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.
KEY IS THE TRACK AND LOCATION OF H85 LOW / H925 < -2C. WHILE
LIKELY TO SEE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIR N/W...ANOTHER KEY TO
THE FORECAST TO THE TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS WETBULBING AT THE
SURFACE.

AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...SURFACE LOW LOOKS
TO TRACK WITHIN THE VICINITY OF 40N / 70W BENCHMARK. UNCERTAIN AS TO
DEPTH / STRENGTH / EXACT TRACK. EXPECT STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT BUT
FEEL BEST MOISTURE WILL BE E OF THE LOW WITHIN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT /WCB/. THOUGH FORCING THROUGH A
MOIST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE NW OF THE H85 LOW BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL-JET...HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN E/NE WITH
THE LACK OF A STRONG H7 CLOSED LOW AND LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING
NOR -EPV /CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB LACKING/. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
UNDERCUT BUT MARGINAL /AROUND UPPER-20S TO LOW-30S/. NO NEIGHBORING
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. WETBULBING LIKELY CONTINUES. SNOWS N/W OF
THE H85 LOW WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS TO AMOUNTS /
HEADLINES AS MODEL RUNS /WHILE PERSISTENT/ CONTINUE TO WOBBLE WITH
THE LOW AND POTENTIAL OUTCOMES. ACTIVITY CONCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY
MORNING REARWARD OF WHICH SOME STRONG SW-FLOW IS POSSIBLE. SEE THE
ADDITIONAL DETAILS BELOW:

SNOWS / HEAVY RAIN...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE N/W INTERIOR FOR
SNOW WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER SE MA...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. NOT EVEN DOES CIPS ANALOGS
PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT CONFIDENCE...AND WITH THE WOBBLING OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE TRACK / STRENGTH OF THE LOW...IT IS ANYONES
GUESS AS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

WINDS...SOME CONCERN DEPENDING THE DEPTH OF THE LOW. NE-FLOW AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BE STRONG...BUT SOME CONCERN AFTER THE LOW PASSES
WITH SW-FLOW IMPACTING THE S-COAST. LIKELY TO BE AN ACCOMPANYING
STRONG LOW-LEVEL-JET. WITH THE 22.12Z GFS...CIPS ANALOGS HAVE A
ROBUST CONFIDENCE OVER SE NEW ENGLAND /MAINLY THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS/ FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 MPH...POSSIBLY 40 MPH. BEARS
MONITORING.

COASTAL FLOODING...INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE NE ALONG E MA INTO
CAPE COD BAY. A BRIEF SURGE ANTICIPATED AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE LOW-CENTER PASSAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. THOUGH HIGH TIDES
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE ASTRONOMICALLY LOW /10 FT
FOR BOSTON/. WITH THE SHORT RESIDENCY TIME...AM NOT ANTICIPATING AT
THIS TIME MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS BASED ON THE FORECAST MODEL
PREFERENCE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR BERKSHIRES AND
MONADNOCKS. SCT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS W AND CENTRAL MA WITH ISOLD
-FZRA IN THE BERKSHIRES. SW GUSTS TO 35 KT CAPE/ISLANDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH 12Z. AREAS OF LLWS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THECT
VALLEY WHERE SFC WINDS SOUTH AND 2K WINDS WEST AROUND 40 KT.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR-IFR AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY
HEAVY MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING AROUND 06Z
CT VALLEY AND REACHING E COAST BY 10Z. ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE MON
MORNING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. RAIN TAPERS OFF 12-16Z W TO E BUT
IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE IN. A PERIOD OF S WIND GUSTS TO
30-40 KT POSSIBLE 12-16Z MON ALONG THE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS...THEN SW GUSTS TO 20-30 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON ENTIRE AREA. LLWS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT CT
VALLEY SHIFTING TO SE NEW ENG MON MORNING AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET 50-60 KT DEVELOPS AT 2K FT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS MAINLY N OF TERMINAL.
LLWS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT MONDAY NIGHT. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. THREATS
CONSIDERED ARE STRONG WINDS AND THE THREAT OF +RA ALONG THE SHORES
WITH SNOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EXACT SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN
BUT EXPECTING A MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS. HEIGHT OF THE STORM
WILL BE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

7 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG W/SW FLOW CONTINUES EXCEEDING GALE FORCE. BOATS ACROSS THE
S-WATERS REPORTING GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 KTS AT TIMES. GALE FORCE
WARNINGS CONTINUE WITH THE THREAT OF AVERAGE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35
KTS...ONLY SMALL-CRAFTS FOR NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BOSTON HARBOR
WHICH SHALL REMAIN SHELTERED FROM THE WINDS. SEAS BUILDING 6-10
FEET OVER THE S-WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GUSTY SW WINDS 25-30 KT IN THE MORNING WILL BE DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DROPPING BELOW SCA DURING AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS. LEFT OVER SWELL WILL KEEPS SEAS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WIND WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS SUNDAY
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN LIFT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
ALLOWING A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. THERE WILL BE AN INVERSION AND ITS ALWAYS UNCERTAIN AS
TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. AT THE VERY
LEAST WILL HAVE STRONG SCA TO PERHAPS GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH VERY LONG
FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY THOUGH GUSTS UP TO
30 KTS EXPECTED. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS EXPECTED
INITIALLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE WATERS. THREATS
CONSIDERED ARE GALE-FORCE WINDS AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE WATERS. EXACT SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN BUT EXPECTING SEAS TO ENHANCE
AROUND THE STORM CENTER WHICH LOOKS TO PASS IN VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...VISIBILITIES REDUCED WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-232.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ233>235-
     237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-254-
     255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230611
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
111 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS ON TAP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT
WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. QUIET AND
MILD TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVING E INTO W MA WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ACROSS E NY. ACTIVITY ASSOCD WITH 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE PLUME. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY IN W
MA ALLOWING GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP
WILL REMAIN ALONG AND N OF THE PIKE WHERE MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS IS GREATER. MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS DECREASES FURTHER S
FROM THE PIKE AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH CT/RI AND
SE MA.

TEMPS IN W MA STILL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 30S...AND LOWER 40S
CT VALLEY AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INDUCING S FLOW. NOTED A FEW
LOCATIONS IN W MA 32-33 DEGREES PER MESONET SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED POCKET OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN...MAINLY BERKSHIRES...BUT THE THREAT IS LOW. GUSTY SW
WINDS TO 30-40 MPH ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
DAYBREAK. TEMPS REMAINING NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

SUNDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AND RESULT IN MID LEVEL DRYING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH MILDER
TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +5C SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RECOVER
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S AND LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE.
GIVEN MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE PRETTY MILD...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF THE
NEXT SHIFT NEEDS TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW MORE DEGREES. GUIDANCE
SEEMS A BIT COOL CONSIDERING THOSE FACTORS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN BE PASSING WELL TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES VERY
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THE WILL CAUSE A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. GEFS IS SHOWING THAT
PWATS INCREASE TO AT LEAST 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH STRONG FORCING AND HIGH PWATS IN PLACE...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED BUT FORTUNATELY SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.
EXPECT MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE ONE HALF TO 1 INCH
TERRITORY ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING...BUT SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE AND THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR.
THERE ALSO IS A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS ON MONDAY. WE COULD SEE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY...BUT INVERSION
SHOULD KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST ABOVE OUR HEADS. THE ONE FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS IF WE CAN GENERATE A LITTLE FINE LINE THAT
COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO BRIEFLY TOUCH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY MORNING.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW LEFT OVER SPOT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL FOR HIGHS GIVEN
850 MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND +10C. SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME
LOCALES APPROACH 70 IF WE CAN MUSTER A FEW PEEKS OF SUN. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN MIX OUT A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD AROUND TUESDAY
- STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING
- GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

ECHO SIMILAR SENTIMENTS PER WPC: MEANINGFUL SHORT-WAVE DIFFERENCES
LEND TO LOW CONFIDENCE...SIGNIFICANT SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN ENERGY LEND TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. WITH UPSTREAM ISSUES IN
HANDLING PACIFIC ENERGY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS OFF THE
E-COAST AND WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE IMPACTS / OUTCOMES UNTIL WE GET
WITHIN 2-3 DAYS OF THE TIMEFRAME.

HAVE ONLY A MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...BELOW-AVERAGE
PREDICTABILITY. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE STORM ITSELF WILL REMAIN ON
THE W-SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS /AGREED UPON BY WPC/
IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK SO DO NOT PREFER A DRY
OUTCOME.

CONSIDER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS ANOMALOUSLY WARM CONDITIONS
HAVE PREVAILED S OF NOVA SCOTIA. LATELY THE TREND HAS BEEN COLD AIR
SURGING S THROUGH THE C-CONUS TO THE GULF WITH NEW ENGLAND AVERAGING
WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER TROUGH. FEEL TREND CONTINUES
WITH THIS FORECAST. LACK OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION...BELIEVE
RIDGING OVER THE W-ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE BULK OF SYNOPTICS ACROSS
OUR REGION.

SO FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY FORECAST. BLUSTERY W/SW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS / SHORES WITH THE
WARMER OCEAN. OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING UP
TO H9. GUSTS OF AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH... STRONGEST OVER THE SHORES AND
ADJACENT WATERS. WILL REMAIN MILD BENEATH THE SW-FLOW. HIGHS TO NEAR-
60S AS A WARMER AIRMASS LINGERS ALOFT.

NOW AS TO THE STORM...

SYNOPTICALLY...SERIES OF PACIFIC WAVES INVOKE / MAINTAIN A H5 OPEN-
WAVE TROUGH STRETCHING S INTO THE GULF. NO UPSTREAM BLOCKING WITH
TELECONNECTIONS OF +AO/+NAO INDICATING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW OF MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES. INTERACTING WITH THE OFFSHORE SW-NE FRONTAL BOUNDARY-
BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED RESULTS IN DEEPENING
SFC-H85 LOW PRESSURE UP ALONG THE W-ATLANTIC PASSING WITHIN VICINITY
OF THE 40N / 70W BENCH-MARK AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY UP AGAINST AN
INTERIOR REGION LACKING OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE / ARCTIC AIR.

INITIALLY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROADSCALE
ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING OF MID- TO LOW-LEVELS DYNAMICALLY
COOLING TOWARDS EVENING SETTING UP THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
STORM. UNDERCUTTING MARGINALLY COLD AIR AIDED BY SURFACE N/NE-FLOW
WITH W/NW AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW OF INTERIOR ORIGIN LOOK TO KEEP THE N/W
INTERIOR AROUND THE FREEZING MARK...MILD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THERMAL FIELDS DIFFICULT TO DIAGNOSE WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.
KEY IS THE TRACK AND LOCATION OF H85 LOW / H925 < -2C. WHILE
LIKELY TO SEE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIR N/W...ANOTHER KEY TO
THE FORECAST TO THE TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS WETBULBING AT THE
SURFACE.

AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...SURFACE LOW LOOKS
TO TRACK WITHIN THE VICINITY OF 40N / 70W BENCHMARK. UNCERTAIN AS TO
DEPTH / STRENGTH / EXACT TRACK. EXPECT STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT BUT
FEEL BEST MOISTURE WILL BE E OF THE LOW WITHIN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT /WCB/. THOUGH FORCING THROUGH A
MOIST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE NW OF THE H85 LOW BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL-JET...HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN E/NE WITH
THE LACK OF A STRONG H7 CLOSED LOW AND LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING
NOR -EPV /CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB LACKING/. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
UNDERCUT BUT MARGINAL /AROUND UPPER-20S TO LOW-30S/. NO NEIGHBORING
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. WETBULBING LIKELY CONTINUES. SNOWS N/W OF
THE H85 LOW WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS TO AMOUNTS /
HEADLINES AS MODEL RUNS /WHILE PERSISTENT/ CONTINUE TO WOBBLE WITH
THE LOW AND POTENTIAL OUTCOMES. ACTIVITY CONCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY
MORNING REARWARD OF WHICH SOME STRONG SW-FLOW IS POSSIBLE. SEE THE
ADDITIONAL DETAILS BELOW:

SNOWS / HEAVY RAIN...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE N/W INTERIOR FOR
SNOW WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER SE MA...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. NOT EVEN DOES CIPS ANALOGS
PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT CONFIDENCE...AND WITH THE WOBBLING OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE TRACK / STRENGTH OF THE LOW...IT IS ANYONES
GUESS AS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

WINDS...SOME CONCERN DEPENDING THE DEPTH OF THE LOW. NE-FLOW AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BE STRONG...BUT SOME CONCERN AFTER THE LOW PASSES
WITH SW-FLOW IMPACTING THE S-COAST. LIKELY TO BE AN ACCOMPANYING
STRONG LOW-LEVEL-JET. WITH THE 22.12Z GFS...CIPS ANALOGS HAVE A
ROBUST CONFIDENCE OVER SE NEW ENGLAND /MAINLY THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS/ FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 MPH...POSSIBLY 40 MPH. BEARS
MONITORING.

COASTAL FLOODING...INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE NE ALONG E MA INTO
CAPE COD BAY. A BRIEF SURGE ANTICIPATED AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE LOW-CENTER PASSAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. THOUGH HIGH TIDES
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE ASTRONOMICALLY LOW /10 FT
FOR BOSTON/. WITH THE SHORT RESIDENCY TIME...AM NOT ANTICIPATING AT
THIS TIME MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS BASED ON THE FORECAST MODEL
PREFERENCE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR BERKSHIRES AND
MONADNOCKS. SCT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS W AND CENTRAL MA WITH ISOLD
-FZRA IN THE BERKSHIRES. SW GUSTS TO 35 KT CAPE/ISLANDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH 12Z. AREAS OF LLWS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THECT
VALLEY WHERE SFC WINDS SOUTH AND 2K WINDS WEST AROUND 40 KT.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR-IFR AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY
HEAVY MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING AROUND 06Z
CT VALLEY AND REACHING E COAST BY 10Z. ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE MON
MORNING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. RAIN TAPERS OFF 12-16Z W TO E BUT
IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE IN. A PERIOD OF S WIND GUSTS TO
30-40 KT POSSIBLE 12-16Z MON ALONG THE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS...THEN SW GUSTS TO 20-30 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON ENTIRE AREA. LLWS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT CT
VALLEY SHIFTING TO SE NEW ENG MON MORNING AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET 50-60 KT DEVELOPS AT 2K FT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS MAINLY N OF TERMINAL.
LLWS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT MONDAY NIGHT. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. THREATS
CONSIDERED ARE STRONG WINDS AND THE THREAT OF +RA ALONG THE SHORES
WITH SNOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EXACT SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN
BUT EXPECTING A MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS. HEIGHT OF THE STORM
WILL BE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

7 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG W/SW FLOW CONTINUES EXCEEDING GALE FORCE. BOATS ACROSS THE
S-WATERS REPORTING GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 KTS AT TIMES. GALE FORCE
WARNINGS CONTINUE WITH THE THREAT OF AVERAGE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35
KTS...ONLY SMALL-CRAFTS FOR NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BOSTON HARBOR
WHICH SHALL REMAIN SHELTERED FROM THE WINDS. SEAS BUILDING 6-10
FEET OVER THE S-WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GUSTY SW WINDS 25-30 KT IN THE MORNING WILL BE DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DROPPING BELOW SCA DURING AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS. LEFT OVER SWELL WILL KEEPS SEAS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WIND WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS SUNDAY
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN LIFT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
ALLOWING A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. THERE WILL BE AN INVERSION AND ITS ALWAYS UNCERTAIN AS
TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. AT THE VERY
LEAST WILL HAVE STRONG SCA TO PERHAPS GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH VERY LONG
FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY THOUGH GUSTS UP TO
30 KTS EXPECTED. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS EXPECTED
INITIALLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE WATERS. THREATS
CONSIDERED ARE GALE-FORCE WINDS AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE WATERS. EXACT SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN BUT EXPECTING SEAS TO ENHANCE
AROUND THE STORM CENTER WHICH LOOKS TO PASS IN VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...VISIBILITIES REDUCED WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-232.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ233>235-
     237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-254-
     255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KGYX 230513
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1213 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN
AREAS TONIGHT. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL
DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1207 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
930 PM UPDATE...NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.
MUCH OF THE CWA IS DRY RIGHT NOW...BUT SOME VERY LIGHT MIXED PRECIP
ACROSS EASTERN NY SHOULD GET TO THE CT VALLEY REGION OF NH IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AND SOME SPOTS MAY SEE A LITTLE BIT OF FREEZING
RAIN OUT OF THAT. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY FOR THE REST OF THE REGION AND MUCH WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT.

622 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. FORECAST AREA
IS MAINLY DRY RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...WE ARE EXPECTING A LITTLE LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES LATER
THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT.

PREVIOUSLY...

WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL, TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTS FREEZING
RAIN.. WITH TEMPS ALOFT REACHING ABOUT +1.5C. MEANWHILE MANY
NORTHERN REGIONS HAVE YET TO GO ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL AND SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE FOOTHILLS, DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
LEAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND WESTERN NH.
FURTHER EAST IN THE COASTAL PLANE THE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER,
BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN MAY STILL EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE IN ERNST ON SUNDAY DRIVING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 40S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW
APPROACHES FROM OHIO. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS WARMING TREND AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A WARM FNT
NWD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. WITH PCPN MOVING IN SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...FEEL THAT GUIDANCE IS A TAD AGGRESSIVE ON WARM UP. WET
BULBING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LEADING EDGE OF WARM FNT WILL FEATURE
SOME PCPN...MOSTLY SHRA...BUT DRY SLOT QUICKLY FOLLOWS. WEAK LIFT
IN WAA AND LOSS OF SATURATION WILL MEAN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MON. COLD FNT DELAYS UNTIL TUE WHEN IT
CAN MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE EARLY IN THE DAY
BEFORE CAA WIND PICKS UP.

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST HEADING INTO
WED...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A TRICKY THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FORECAST.
THERE ARE TWO S/WV TROFS WE/RE CONCERNED WITH. A NRN STREAM WAVE
MOVING THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND A SRN STREAM FEATURE TRACKING
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE SRN WAVE WILL PICK UP AMPLE
MOISTURE...AND TRIGGER CONVECTION WHICH IS ALWAYS A PROBLEM FOR
MODELING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY FOR AT LEAST A
PARTIAL PHASE...AND ALLOW THE SFC LOW PRES TO TRACK WELL TO THE
W OF THE CMC. ATTM THE GFS REPRESENTS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE WARM AND AMPLIFIED ECMWF...AND THE COLD...OUT TO SEA CMC. DID
RAISE POP AGAIN TO LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TRACK AND INTENSITY MEANS THAT PTYPE FORECASTS WILL
CHANGE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE COMING DAYS. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THAT TRAVEL WED AND THU COULD BE
IMPACTED. THIS IS A FORECAST TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAY SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR
TONIGHT AT HIE AND LEB AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. STRONG JET MOVING
THROUGH WILL RESULT IN WINDSHEAR WITH WINDS WEST AT 40-45KTS
THROUGH ABOUT 05Z SUNDAY. CEILINGS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON AS WARM FNT LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA. SHALLOW COLD AND WAA ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LLWS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS AS STRONG SW FLOW MOVES OVER ALOFT MON. PCPN WILL BE
BRIEF...FOLLOWED BY LOW CLOUDS AND DZ UNTIL COLD FNT CLEARS OUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GUSTY WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUE...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD...AS POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO THU...WITH SN OR MIXED PCPN AWAY
FROM IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GALE WARNING REMAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES
OVERHEARD. OVER THE EASTERN ZONE MATINICUS IS STILL GUSTING 40KTS
WHILE FURTHER WEST AROUND ISLES OF SHOALS WINDS HAVE DECREASED
SLIGHTLY. HAVE LEFT GALE IN PLACE AS THE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
A BIT OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MON AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT.
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FOLLOWS BEHIND IT IN CAA REGIME.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN A COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED INTO THU...WHICH
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. GALES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ007-
     008.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NHZ001>003-005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 230513
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1213 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN
AREAS TONIGHT. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL
DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1207 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
930 PM UPDATE...NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.
MUCH OF THE CWA IS DRY RIGHT NOW...BUT SOME VERY LIGHT MIXED PRECIP
ACROSS EASTERN NY SHOULD GET TO THE CT VALLEY REGION OF NH IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AND SOME SPOTS MAY SEE A LITTLE BIT OF FREEZING
RAIN OUT OF THAT. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY FOR THE REST OF THE REGION AND MUCH WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT.

622 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. FORECAST AREA
IS MAINLY DRY RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...WE ARE EXPECTING A LITTLE LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES LATER
THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT.

PREVIOUSLY...

WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL, TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTS FREEZING
RAIN.. WITH TEMPS ALOFT REACHING ABOUT +1.5C. MEANWHILE MANY
NORTHERN REGIONS HAVE YET TO GO ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL AND SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE FOOTHILLS, DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
LEAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND WESTERN NH.
FURTHER EAST IN THE COASTAL PLANE THE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER,
BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN MAY STILL EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE IN ERNST ON SUNDAY DRIVING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 40S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW
APPROACHES FROM OHIO. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS WARMING TREND AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A WARM FNT
NWD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. WITH PCPN MOVING IN SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...FEEL THAT GUIDANCE IS A TAD AGGRESSIVE ON WARM UP. WET
BULBING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LEADING EDGE OF WARM FNT WILL FEATURE
SOME PCPN...MOSTLY SHRA...BUT DRY SLOT QUICKLY FOLLOWS. WEAK LIFT
IN WAA AND LOSS OF SATURATION WILL MEAN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MON. COLD FNT DELAYS UNTIL TUE WHEN IT
CAN MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE EARLY IN THE DAY
BEFORE CAA WIND PICKS UP.

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST HEADING INTO
WED...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A TRICKY THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FORECAST.
THERE ARE TWO S/WV TROFS WE/RE CONCERNED WITH. A NRN STREAM WAVE
MOVING THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND A SRN STREAM FEATURE TRACKING
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE SRN WAVE WILL PICK UP AMPLE
MOISTURE...AND TRIGGER CONVECTION WHICH IS ALWAYS A PROBLEM FOR
MODELING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY FOR AT LEAST A
PARTIAL PHASE...AND ALLOW THE SFC LOW PRES TO TRACK WELL TO THE
W OF THE CMC. ATTM THE GFS REPRESENTS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE WARM AND AMPLIFIED ECMWF...AND THE COLD...OUT TO SEA CMC. DID
RAISE POP AGAIN TO LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TRACK AND INTENSITY MEANS THAT PTYPE FORECASTS WILL
CHANGE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE COMING DAYS. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THAT TRAVEL WED AND THU COULD BE
IMPACTED. THIS IS A FORECAST TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAY SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR
TONIGHT AT HIE AND LEB AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. STRONG JET MOVING
THROUGH WILL RESULT IN WINDSHEAR WITH WINDS WEST AT 40-45KTS
THROUGH ABOUT 05Z SUNDAY. CEILINGS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON AS WARM FNT LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA. SHALLOW COLD AND WAA ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LLWS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS AS STRONG SW FLOW MOVES OVER ALOFT MON. PCPN WILL BE
BRIEF...FOLLOWED BY LOW CLOUDS AND DZ UNTIL COLD FNT CLEARS OUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GUSTY WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUE...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD...AS POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO THU...WITH SN OR MIXED PCPN AWAY
FROM IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GALE WARNING REMAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES
OVERHEARD. OVER THE EASTERN ZONE MATINICUS IS STILL GUSTING 40KTS
WHILE FURTHER WEST AROUND ISLES OF SHOALS WINDS HAVE DECREASED
SLIGHTLY. HAVE LEFT GALE IN PLACE AS THE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
A BIT OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MON AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT.
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FOLLOWS BEHIND IT IN CAA REGIME.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN A COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED INTO THU...WHICH
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. GALES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ007-
     008.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NHZ001>003-005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230325
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1025 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS ON TAP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT
WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. QUIET AND
MILD TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1015 PM UPDATE...
NOSE OF 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET ACTING ON DEEPENING MOISTURE RESULTING
IN A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW ENG. COVERAGE OF PRECIP
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. MAIN
FOCUS FOR PRECIP OVERNIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND N OF THE PIKE WHERE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS IS GREATER. MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
DECREASES FURTHER S FROM THE PIKE AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH CT/RI AND SE MA. TEMPS IN WESTERN NEW ENG WELL
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET INDUCING S FLOW UP THE CT VALLEY AND SW IN THE BERKSHIRES.
STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED POCKET OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN BUT THE THREAT IS DIMINISHING. GUSTY SW
WINDS TO 30-40 MPH ALONG THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE GUSTY SW WINDS HAVE PUSHED TEMPS TO 45-50 ALONG THE
S COAST AND EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD IN THE 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN...WITH MID 30S OVER THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN.

UPDATED TEMPS/POPS TO REFLECT FORECAST TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

SUNDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AND RESULT IN MID LEVEL DRYING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH MILDER
TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +5C SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RECOVER
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S AND LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE.
GIVEN MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE PRETTY MILD...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF THE
NEXT SHIFT NEEDS TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW MORE DEGREES. GUIDANCE
SEEMS A BIT COOL CONSIDERING THOSE FACTORS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN BE PASSING WELL TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES VERY
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THE WILL CAUSE A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. GEFS IS SHOWING THAT
PWATS INCREASE TO AT LEAST 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH STRONG FORCING AND HIGH PWATS IN PLACE...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED BUT FORTUNATELY SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.
EXPECT MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE ONE HALF TO 1 INCH
TERRITORY ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING...BUT SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE AND THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR.
THERE ALSO IS A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS ON MONDAY. WE COULD SEE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY...BUT INVERSION
SHOULD KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST ABOVE OUR HEADS. THE ONE FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS IF WE CAN GENERATE A LITTLE FINE LINE THAT
COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO BRIEFLY TOUCH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY MORNING.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW LEFT OVER SPOT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL FOR HIGHS GIVEN
850 MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND +10C. SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME
LOCALES APPROACH 70 IF WE CAN MUSTER A FEW PEEKS OF SUN. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN MIX OUT A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD AROUND TUESDAY
- STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING
- GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

ECHO SIMILAR SENTIMENTS PER WPC: MEANINGFUL SHORT-WAVE DIFFERENCES
LEND TO LOW CONFIDENCE...SIGNIFICANT SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN ENERGY LEND TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. WITH UPSTREAM ISSUES IN
HANDLING PACIFIC ENERGY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS OFF THE
E-COAST AND WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE IMPACTS / OUTCOMES UNTIL WE GET
WITHIN 2-3 DAYS OF THE TIMEFRAME.

HAVE ONLY A MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...BELOW-AVERAGE
PREDICTABILITY. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE STORM ITSELF WILL REMAIN ON
THE W-SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS /AGREED UPON BY WPC/
IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK SO DO NOT PREFER A DRY
OUTCOME.

CONSIDER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS ANOMALOUSLY WARM CONDITIONS
HAVE PREVAILED S OF NOVA SCOTIA. LATELY THE TREND HAS BEEN COLD AIR
SURGING S THROUGH THE C-CONUS TO THE GULF WITH NEW ENGLAND AVERAGING
WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER TROUGH. FEEL TREND CONTINUES
WITH THIS FORECAST. LACK OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION...BELIEVE
RIDGING OVER THE W-ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE BULK OF SYNOPTICS ACROSS
OUR REGION.

SO FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY FORECAST. BLUSTERY W/SW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS / SHORES WITH THE
WARMER OCEAN. OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING UP
TO H9. GUSTS OF AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH... STRONGEST OVER THE SHORES AND
ADJACENT WATERS. WILL REMAIN MILD BENEATH THE SW-FLOW. HIGHS TO NEAR-
60S AS A WARMER AIRMASS LINGERS ALOFT.

NOW AS TO THE STORM...

SYNOPTICALLY...SERIES OF PACIFIC WAVES INVOKE / MAINTAIN A H5 OPEN-
WAVE TROUGH STRETCHING S INTO THE GULF. NO UPSTREAM BLOCKING WITH
TELECONNECTIONS OF +AO/+NAO INDICATING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW OF MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES. INTERACTING WITH THE OFFSHORE SW-NE FRONTAL BOUNDARY-
BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED RESULTS IN DEEPENING
SFC-H85 LOW PRESSURE UP ALONG THE W-ATLANTIC PASSING WITHIN VICINITY
OF THE 40N / 70W BENCH-MARK AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY UP AGAINST AN
INTERIOR REGION LACKING OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE / ARCTIC AIR.

INITIALLY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROADSCALE
ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING OF MID- TO LOW-LEVELS DYNAMICALLY
COOLING TOWARDS EVENING SETTING UP THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
STORM. UNDERCUTTING MARGINALLY COLD AIR AIDED BY SURFACE N/NE-FLOW
WITH W/NW AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW OF INTERIOR ORIGIN LOOK TO KEEP THE N/W
INTERIOR AROUND THE FREEZING MARK...MILD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THERMAL FIELDS DIFFICULT TO DIAGNOSE WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.
KEY IS THE TRACK AND LOCATION OF H85 LOW / H925 < -2C. WHILE
LIKELY TO SEE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIR N/W...ANOTHER KEY TO
THE FORECAST TO THE TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS WETBULBING AT THE
SURFACE.

AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...SURFACE LOW LOOKS
TO TRACK WITHIN THE VICINITY OF 40N / 70W BENCHMARK. UNCERTAIN AS TO
DEPTH / STRENGTH / EXACT TRACK. EXPECT STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT BUT
FEEL BEST MOISTURE WILL BE E OF THE LOW WITHIN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT /WCB/. THOUGH FORCING THROUGH A
MOIST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE NW OF THE H85 LOW BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL-JET...HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN E/NE WITH
THE LACK OF A STRONG H7 CLOSED LOW AND LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING
NOR -EPV /CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB LACKING/. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
UNDERCUT BUT MARGINAL /AROUND UPPER-20S TO LOW-30S/. NO NEIGHBORING
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. WETBULBING LIKELY CONTINUES. SNOWS N/W OF
THE H85 LOW WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS TO AMOUNTS /
HEADLINES AS MODEL RUNS /WHILE PERSISTENT/ CONTINUE TO WOBBLE WITH
THE LOW AND POTENTIAL OUTCOMES. ACTIVITY CONCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY
MORNING REARWARD OF WHICH SOME STRONG SW-FLOW IS POSSIBLE. SEE THE
ADDITIONAL DETAILS BELOW:

SNOWS / HEAVY RAIN...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE N/W INTERIOR FOR
SNOW WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER SE MA...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. NOT EVEN DOES CIPS ANALOGS
PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT CONFIDENCE...AND WITH THE WOBBLING OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE TRACK / STRENGTH OF THE LOW...IT IS ANYONES
GUESS AS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

WINDS...SOME CONCERN DEPENDING THE DEPTH OF THE LOW. NE-FLOW AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BE STRONG...BUT SOME CONCERN AFTER THE LOW PASSES
WITH SW-FLOW IMPACTING THE S-COAST. LIKELY TO BE AN ACCOMPANYING
STRONG LOW-LEVEL-JET. WITH THE 22.12Z GFS...CIPS ANALOGS HAVE A
ROBUST CONFIDENCE OVER SE NEW ENGLAND /MAINLY THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS/ FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 MPH...POSSIBLY 40 MPH. BEARS
MONITORING.

COASTAL FLOODING...INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE NE ALONG E MA INTO
CAPE COD BAY. A BRIEF SURGE ANTICIPATED AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE LOW-CENTER PASSAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. THOUGH HIGH TIDES
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE ASTRONOMICALLY LOW /10 FT
FOR BOSTON/. WITH THE SHORT RESIDENCY TIME...AM NOT ANTICIPATING AT
THIS TIME MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS BASED ON THE FORECAST MODEL
PREFERENCE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

0Z UPDATE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

LOW-END VFR CIGS AT WORST. MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK. ISO-SCT
-SHRA. ISO -FZRA POSSIBLE ACROSS N/W MA AND S NH. NOT TO BE
WIDESPREAD.

MAIN CONCERN: GUSTY W/SW WINDS 25-30 KTS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND E-SHORELINE WHILE 30-35 KTS ACROSS THE S/SE SHORELINE. LLWS A
FACTOR WITH W/SW JET 2 KFT AGL AROUND 40-45 KTS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE INTERIOR WITH DIMINISHED WINDS AND MORE S-FLOW TRAJECTORY.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR-IFR WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
EMBEDDED +RA BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT MONDAY INTO THE MORNING...
TAPERING BY AFTERNOON. LOW RISK TSRA MONDAY MORN ALONG S-COAST.
S-WINDS BY DAYBREAK GUSTING 30-40 KTS OVER E/SE MA...RI...AND E/SE
CT...PERHAPS STRONGER WITH ANY +RA/TSRA. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN
WITH S JET 2 KFT AGL AROUND 50 KTS.

WHILE WET WEATHER EXITS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO VFR...S/SW WINDS REMAIN BRISK WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS OVER SE MA
AND S RI.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. -SHRA TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A
MENTION. COLLABORATION WITH CWSU...WILL CONTINUE LLWS THREAT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD. TDWR / AMDAR SOUNDINGS OBSERVING WINDS
2-3 KFT AGL AROUND 50 KTS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. -SHRA TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A
MENTION. S-FLOW PREVAILING...WARMER CONDITIONS...DO NOT BELIEVE
-FZRA WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR THE TERMINAL.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT MONDAY NIGHT. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. THREATS
CONSIDERED ARE STRONG WINDS AND THE THREAT OF +RA ALONG THE SHORES
WITH SNOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EXACT SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN
BUT EXPECTING A MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS. HEIGHT OF THE STORM
WILL BE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

7 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG W/SW FLOW CONTINUES EXCEEDING GALE FORCE. BOATS ACROSS THE
S-WATERS REPORTING GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 KTS AT TIMES. GALE FORCE
WARNINGS CONTINUE WITH THE THREAT OF AVERAGE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35
KTS...ONLY SMALL-CRAFTS FOR NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BOSTON HARBOR
WHICH SHALL REMAIN SHELTERED FROM THE WINDS. SEAS BUILDING 6-10
FEET OVER THE S-WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GUSTY SW WINDS 25-30 KT IN THE MORNING WILL BE DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DROPPING BELOW SCA DURING AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS. LEFT OVER SWELL WILL KEEPS SEAS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WIND WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS SUNDAY
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN LIFT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
ALLOWING A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. THERE WILL BE AN INVERSION AND ITS ALWAYS UNCERTAIN AS
TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. AT THE VERY
LEAST WILL HAVE STRONG SCA TO PERHAPS GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH VERY LONG
FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY THOUGH GUSTS UP TO
30 KTS EXPECTED. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS EXPECTED
INITIALLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE WATERS. THREATS
CONSIDERED ARE GALE-FORCE WINDS AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE WATERS. EXACT SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN BUT EXPECTING SEAS TO ENHANCE
AROUND THE STORM CENTER WHICH LOOKS TO PASS IN VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...VISIBILITIES REDUCED WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KGYX 230225
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
925 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS
FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
930 PM UPDATE...NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.
MUCH OF THE CWA IS DRY RIGHT NOW...BUT SOME VERY LIGHT MIXED PRECIP
ACROSS EASTERN NY SHOULD GET TO THE CT VALLEY REGION OF NH IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AND SOME SPOTS MAY SEE A LITTLE BIT OF FREEZING
RAIN OUT OF THAT. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY FOR THE REST OF THE REGION AND MUCH WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT.

622 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. FORECAST AREA
IS MAINLY DRY RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...WE ARE EXPECTING A LITTLE LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES LATER
THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT.

PREVIOUSLY...

WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL, TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTS FREEZING
RAIN.. WITH TEMPS ALOFT REACHING ABOUT +1.5C. MEANWHILE MANY
NORTHERN REGIONS HAVE YET TO GO ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL AND SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE FOOTHILLS, DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
LEAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND WESTERN NH.
FURTHER EAST IN THE COASTAL PLANE THE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER,
BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN MAY STILL EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE IN ERNST ON SUNDAY DRIVING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 40S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW
APPROACHES FROM OHIO. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS WARMING TREND AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A WARM FNT
NWD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. WITH PCPN MOVING IN SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...FEEL THAT GUIDANCE IS A TAD AGGRESSIVE ON WARM UP. WET
BULBING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LEADING EDGE OF WARM FNT WILL FEATURE
SOME PCPN...MOSTLY SHRA...BUT DRY SLOT QUICKLY FOLLOWS. WEAK LIFT
IN WAA AND LOSS OF SATURATION WILL MEAN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MON. COLD FNT DELAYS UNTIL TUE WHEN IT
CAN MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE EARLY IN THE DAY
BEFORE CAA WIND PICKS UP.

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST HEADING INTO
WED...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A TRICKY THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FORECAST.
THERE ARE TWO S/WV TROFS WE/RE CONCERNED WITH. A NRN STREAM WAVE
MOVING THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND A SRN STREAM FEATURE TRACKING
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE SRN WAVE WILL PICK UP AMPLE
MOISTURE...AND TRIGGER CONVECTION WHICH IS ALWAYS A PROBLEM FOR
MODELING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY FOR AT LEAST A
PARTIAL PHASE...AND ALLOW THE SFC LOW PRES TO TRACK WELL TO THE
W OF THE CMC. ATTM THE GFS REPRESENTS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE WARM AND AMPLIFIED ECMWF...AND THE COLD...OUT TO SEA CMC. DID
RAISE POP AGAIN TO LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TRACK AND INTENSITY MEANS THAT PTYPE FORECASTS WILL
CHANGE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE COMING DAYS. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THAT TRAVEL WED AND THU COULD BE
IMPACTED. THIS IS A FORECAST TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAY SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR
TONIGHT AT HIE AND LEB AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. STRONG JET MOVING
THROUGH WILL RESULT IN WINDSHEAR WITH WINDS WEST AT 40-45KTS
THROUGH ABOUT 05Z SUNDAY. CEILINGS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON AS WARM FNT LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA. SHALLOW COLD AND WAA ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LLWS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS AS STRONG SW FLOW MOVES OVER ALOFT MON. PCPN WILL BE
BRIEF...FOLLOWED BY LOW CLOUDS AND DZ UNTIL COLD FNT CLEARS OUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GUSTY WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUE...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD...AS POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO THU...WITH SN OR MIXED PCPN AWAY
FROM IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GALE WARNING REMAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES
OVERHEARD. OVER THE EASTERN ZONE MATINICUS IS STILL GUSTING 40KTS
WHILE FURTHER WEST AROUND ISLES OF SHOALS WINDS HAVE DECREASED
SLIGHTLY. HAVE LEFT GALE IN PLACE AS THE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
A BIT OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MON AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT.
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FOLLOWS BEHIND IT IN CAA REGIME.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN A COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED INTO THU...WHICH
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. GALES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ007-008.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NHZ001>003-
     005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 230225
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
925 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS
FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
930 PM UPDATE...NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.
MUCH OF THE CWA IS DRY RIGHT NOW...BUT SOME VERY LIGHT MIXED PRECIP
ACROSS EASTERN NY SHOULD GET TO THE CT VALLEY REGION OF NH IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AND SOME SPOTS MAY SEE A LITTLE BIT OF FREEZING
RAIN OUT OF THAT. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY FOR THE REST OF THE REGION AND MUCH WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT.

622 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. FORECAST AREA
IS MAINLY DRY RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...WE ARE EXPECTING A LITTLE LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES LATER
THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT.

PREVIOUSLY...

WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL, TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTS FREEZING
RAIN.. WITH TEMPS ALOFT REACHING ABOUT +1.5C. MEANWHILE MANY
NORTHERN REGIONS HAVE YET TO GO ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL AND SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE FOOTHILLS, DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
LEAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND WESTERN NH.
FURTHER EAST IN THE COASTAL PLANE THE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER,
BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN MAY STILL EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE IN ERNST ON SUNDAY DRIVING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 40S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW
APPROACHES FROM OHIO. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS WARMING TREND AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A WARM FNT
NWD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. WITH PCPN MOVING IN SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...FEEL THAT GUIDANCE IS A TAD AGGRESSIVE ON WARM UP. WET
BULBING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LEADING EDGE OF WARM FNT WILL FEATURE
SOME PCPN...MOSTLY SHRA...BUT DRY SLOT QUICKLY FOLLOWS. WEAK LIFT
IN WAA AND LOSS OF SATURATION WILL MEAN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MON. COLD FNT DELAYS UNTIL TUE WHEN IT
CAN MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE EARLY IN THE DAY
BEFORE CAA WIND PICKS UP.

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST HEADING INTO
WED...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A TRICKY THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FORECAST.
THERE ARE TWO S/WV TROFS WE/RE CONCERNED WITH. A NRN STREAM WAVE
MOVING THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND A SRN STREAM FEATURE TRACKING
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE SRN WAVE WILL PICK UP AMPLE
MOISTURE...AND TRIGGER CONVECTION WHICH IS ALWAYS A PROBLEM FOR
MODELING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY FOR AT LEAST A
PARTIAL PHASE...AND ALLOW THE SFC LOW PRES TO TRACK WELL TO THE
W OF THE CMC. ATTM THE GFS REPRESENTS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE WARM AND AMPLIFIED ECMWF...AND THE COLD...OUT TO SEA CMC. DID
RAISE POP AGAIN TO LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TRACK AND INTENSITY MEANS THAT PTYPE FORECASTS WILL
CHANGE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE COMING DAYS. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THAT TRAVEL WED AND THU COULD BE
IMPACTED. THIS IS A FORECAST TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAY SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR
TONIGHT AT HIE AND LEB AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. STRONG JET MOVING
THROUGH WILL RESULT IN WINDSHEAR WITH WINDS WEST AT 40-45KTS
THROUGH ABOUT 05Z SUNDAY. CEILINGS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON AS WARM FNT LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA. SHALLOW COLD AND WAA ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LLWS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS AS STRONG SW FLOW MOVES OVER ALOFT MON. PCPN WILL BE
BRIEF...FOLLOWED BY LOW CLOUDS AND DZ UNTIL COLD FNT CLEARS OUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GUSTY WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUE...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD...AS POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO THU...WITH SN OR MIXED PCPN AWAY
FROM IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GALE WARNING REMAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES
OVERHEARD. OVER THE EASTERN ZONE MATINICUS IS STILL GUSTING 40KTS
WHILE FURTHER WEST AROUND ISLES OF SHOALS WINDS HAVE DECREASED
SLIGHTLY. HAVE LEFT GALE IN PLACE AS THE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
A BIT OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MON AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT.
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FOLLOWS BEHIND IT IN CAA REGIME.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN A COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED INTO THU...WHICH
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. GALES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ007-008.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NHZ001>003-
     005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KBOX 230005
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
705 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS ON TAP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT
WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. QUIET AND
MILD TUESDAY. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHOWERS
PROCEEDING WITH THE MEAN W-E FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE INVOKING ASCENT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. REPORTS BEING
GATHERED OUT OF THE ALBANY REGION AND ACROSS N VT/NH OF A SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN MIXTURE. EVEN THOUGH LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
SPREADS EXIST INDICATIVE OF DRY-AIR AT THE SURFACE...PRECIPITATION
ALBEIT LIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND.

NWS ALBANY HAS EXPANDED THEIR HEADLINES ACCORDINGLY AND FOR GOOD
REASON. BUT HERE WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HOLDING OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. LOOKING AT
PRESENT SURFACE OBS...STILL BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF S NEW ENGLAND E
OF THE BERKSHIRES WITH A PRETTY DECENT S FUNNELING OF FLOW THROUGH
THE CT-RIVER VALLEY KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-30S. ONLY A
COUPLE OF SPOTS ARE REPORTING 34-35 DEGREES IN NW MA AND S NH
/ENHANCED DATA DISPLAY SHOWS THIS WELL/.

FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
BUT COULD BE OVERDONE IF WARMER AIR PERSISTS. REGION APPEARS ON
THE CUSP AND FEEL ONLY POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL EXIST DURING
THE EVENING PERIOD...NOT SO MUCH TO WARRANT WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE WORK ACROSS THE REGION GENERATING
LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT/SPOTTY PRECIPITATION. MAIN CONCERN OF FREEZING
RAIN WITH COLDER AIR TRAPPED ACROSS THE INTERIOR. NOT AN IDEAL
SETUP WITH SUCH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL-JET JUST OFF THE DECK WHICH
WILL PREVENT MUCH OF THE REGION FROM DECOUPLING AND ALSO ALLOW
SOME MILDER AIR ALOFT TO PERHAPS MIX DOWN A BIT.

LOW TEMPS MAY BOTTOM OUT NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN THIS EVENING...BUT THEN GRADUALLY RISE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL NIGHT ACROSS
EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND. IN FACT...THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE 40S ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BLOWING OFF
THE OCEAN. IT WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AS SOME
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE MIX DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...

***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

SUNDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AND RESULT IN MID LEVEL DRYING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH MILDER
TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +5C SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RECOVER
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S AND LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE.
GIVEN MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE PRETTY MILD...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF THE
NEXT SHIFT NEEDS TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW MORE DEGREES. GUIDANCE
SEEMS A BIT COOL CONSIDERING THOSE FACTORS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN BE PASSING WELL TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES VERY
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THE WILL CAUSE A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. GEFS IS SHOWING THAT
PWATS INCREASE TO AT LEAST 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH STRONG FORCING AND HIGH PWATS IN PLACE...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED BUT FORTUNATELY SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.
EXPECT MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE ONE HALF TO 1 INCH
TERRITORY ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING...BUT SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE AND THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR.
THERE ALSO IS A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS ON MONDAY. WE COULD SEE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY...BUT INVERSION
SHOULD KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST ABOVE OUR HEADS. THE ONE FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS IF WE CAN GENERATE A LITTLE FINE LINE THAT
COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO BRIEFLY TOUCH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY MORNING.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW LEFT OVER SPOT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL FOR HIGHS GIVEN
850 MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND +10C. SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME
LOCALES APPROACH 70 IF WE CAN MUSTER A FEW PEEKS OF SUN. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN MIX OUT A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD AROUND TUESDAY
- STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING
- GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

ECHO SIMILAR SENTIMENTS PER WPC: MEANINGFUL SHORT-WAVE DIFFERENCES
LEND TO LOW CONFIDENCE...SIGNIFICANT SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN ENERGY LEND TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. WITH UPSTREAM ISSUES IN
HANDLING PACIFIC ENERGY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS OFF THE
E-COAST AND WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE IMPACTS / OUTCOMES UNTIL WE GET
WITHIN 2-3 DAYS OF THE TIMEFRAME.

HAVE ONLY A MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...BELOW-AVERAGE
PREDICTABILITY. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE STORM ITSELF WILL REMAIN ON
THE W-SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS /AGREED UPON BY WPC/
IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK SO DO NOT PREFER A DRY
OUTCOME.

CONSIDER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS ANOMALOUSLY WARM CONDITIONS
HAVE PREVAILED S OF NOVA SCOTIA. LATELY THE TREND HAS BEEN COLD AIR
SURGING S THROUGH THE C-CONUS TO THE GULF WITH NEW ENGLAND AVERAGING
WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER TROUGH. FEEL TREND CONTINUES
WITH THIS FORECAST. LACK OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION...BELIEVE
RIDGING OVER THE W-ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE BULK OF SYNOPTICS ACROSS
OUR REGION.

SO FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY FORECAST. BLUSTERY W/SW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS / SHORES WITH THE
WARMER OCEAN. OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING UP
TO H9. GUSTS OF AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH... STRONGEST OVER THE SHORES AND
ADJACENT WATERS. WILL REMAIN MILD BENEATH THE SW-FLOW. HIGHS TO NEAR-
60S AS A WARMER AIRMASS LINGERS ALOFT.

NOW AS TO THE STORM...

SYNOPTICALLY...SERIES OF PACIFIC WAVES INVOKE / MAINTAIN A H5 OPEN-
WAVE TROUGH STRETCHING S INTO THE GULF. NO UPSTREAM BLOCKING WITH
TELECONNECTIONS OF +AO/+NAO INDICATING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW OF MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES. INTERACTING WITH THE OFFSHORE SW-NE FRONTAL BOUNDARY-
BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED RESULTS IN DEEPENING
SFC-H85 LOW PRESSURE UP ALONG THE W-ATLANTIC PASSING WITHIN VICINITY
OF THE 40N / 70W BENCH-MARK AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY UP AGAINST AN
INTERIOR REGION LACKING OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE / ARCTIC AIR.

INITIALLY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROADSCALE
ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING OF MID- TO LOW-LEVELS DYNAMICALLY
COOLING TOWARDS EVENING SETTING UP THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
STORM. UNDERCUTTING MARGINALLY COLD AIR AIDED BY SURFACE N/NE-FLOW
WITH W/NW AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW OF INTERIOR ORIGIN LOOK TO KEEP THE N/W
INTERIOR AROUND THE FREEZING MARK...MILD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THERMAL FIELDS DIFFICULT TO DIAGNOSE WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.
KEY IS THE TRACK AND LOCATION OF H85 LOW / H925 < -2C. WHILE
LIKELY TO SEE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIR N/W...ANOTHER KEY TO
THE FORECAST TO THE TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS WETBULBING AT THE
SURFACE.

AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...SURFACE LOW LOOKS
TO TRACK WITHIN THE VICINITY OF 40N / 70W BENCHMARK. UNCERTAIN AS TO
DEPTH / STRENGTH / EXACT TRACK. EXPECT STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT BUT
FEEL BEST MOISTURE WILL BE E OF THE LOW WITHIN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT /WCB/. THOUGH FORCING THROUGH A
MOIST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE NW OF THE H85 LOW BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL-JET...HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN E/NE WITH
THE LACK OF A STRONG H7 CLOSED LOW AND LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING
NOR -EPV /CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB LACKING/. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
UNDERCUT BUT MARGINAL /AROUND UPPER-20S TO LOW-30S/. NO NEIGHBORING
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. WETBULBING LIKELY CONTINUES. SNOWS N/W OF
THE H85 LOW WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS TO AMOUNTS /
HEADLINES AS MODEL RUNS /WHILE PERSISTENT/ CONTINUE TO WOBBLE WITH
THE LOW AND POTENTIAL OUTCOMES. ACTIVITY CONCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY
MORNING REARWARD OF WHICH SOME STRONG SW-FLOW IS POSSIBLE. SEE THE
ADDITIONAL DETAILS BELOW:

SNOWS / HEAVY RAIN...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE N/W INTERIOR FOR
SNOW WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER SE MA...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. NOT EVEN DOES CIPS ANALOGS
PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT CONFIDENCE...AND WITH THE WOBBLING OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE TRACK / STRENGTH OF THE LOW...IT IS ANYONES
GUESS AS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

WINDS...SOME CONCERN DEPENDING THE DEPTH OF THE LOW. NE-FLOW AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BE STRONG...BUT SOME CONCERN AFTER THE LOW PASSES
WITH SW-FLOW IMPACTING THE S-COAST. LIKELY TO BE AN ACCOMPANYING
STRONG LOW-LEVEL-JET. WITH THE 22.12Z GFS...CIPS ANALOGS HAVE A
ROBUST CONFIDENCE OVER SE NEW ENGLAND /MAINLY THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS/ FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 MPH...POSSIBLY 40 MPH. BEARS
MONITORING.

COASTAL FLOODING...INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE NE ALONG E MA INTO
CAPE COD BAY. A BRIEF SURGE ANTICIPATED AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE LOW-CENTER PASSAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. THOUGH HIGH TIDES
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE ASTRONOMICALLY LOW /10 FT
FOR BOSTON/. WITH THE SHORT RESIDENCY TIME...AM NOT ANTICIPATING AT
THIS TIME MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS BASED ON THE FORECAST MODEL
PREFERENCE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

0Z UPDATE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

LOW-END VFR CIGS AT WORST. MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK. ISO-SCT
-SHRA. ISO -FZRA POSSIBLE ACROSS N/W MA AND S NH. NOT TO BE
WIDESPREAD.

MAIN CONCERN: GUSTY W/SW WINDS 25-30 KTS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND E-SHORELINE WHILE 30-35 KTS ACROSS THE S/SE SHORELINE. LLWS A
FACTOR WITH W/SW JET 2 KFT AGL AROUND 40-45 KTS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE INTERIOR WITH DIMINISHED WINDS AND MORE S-FLOW TRAJECTORY.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR-IFR WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
EMBEDDED +RA BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT MONDAY INTO THE MORNING...
TAPERING BY AFTERNOON. LOW RISK TSRA MONDAY MORN ALONG S-COAST.
S-WINDS BY DAYBREAK GUSTING 30-40 KTS OVER E/SE MA...RI...AND E/SE
CT...PERHAPS STRONGER WITH ANY +RA/TSRA. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN
WITH S JET 2 KFT AGL AROUND 50 KTS.

WHILE WET WEATHER EXITS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO VFR...S/SW WINDS REMAIN BRISK WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS OVER SE MA
AND S RI.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. -SHRA TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A
MENTION. COLLABORATION WITH CWSU...WILL CONTINUE LLWS THREAT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD. TDWR / AMDAR SOUNDINGS OBSERVING WINDS
2-3 KFT AGL AROUND 50 KTS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. -SHRA TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A
MENTION. S-FLOW PREVAILING...WARMER CONDITIONS...DO NOT BELIEVE
-FZRA WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR THE TERMINAL.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT MONDAY NIGHT. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. THREATS
CONSIDERED ARE STRONG WINDS AND THE THREAT OF +RA ALONG THE SHORES
WITH SNOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EXACT SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN
BUT EXPECTING A MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS. HEIGHT OF THE STORM
WILL BE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

7 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG W/SW FLOW CONTINUES EXCEEDING GALE FORCE. BOATS ACROSS THE
S-WATERS REPORTING GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 KTS AT TIMES. GALE FORCE
WARNINGS CONTINUE WITH THE THREAT OF AVERAGE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35
KTS...ONLY SMALL-CRAFTS FOR NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BOSTON HARBOR
WHICH SHALL REMAIN SHELTERED FROM THE WINDS. SEAS BUILDING 6-10
FEET OVER THE S-WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GUSTY SW WINDS 25-30 KT IN THE MORNING WILL BE DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DROPPING BELOW SCA DURING AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS. LEFT OVER SWELL WILL KEEPS SEAS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WIND WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS SUNDAY
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN LIFT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
ALLOWING A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. THERE WILL BE AN INVERSION AND ITS ALWAYS UNCERTAIN AS
TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. AT THE VERY
LEAST WILL HAVE STRONG SCA TO PERHAPS GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH VERY LONG
FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY THOUGH GUSTS UP TO
30 KTS EXPECTED. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS EXPECTED
INITIALLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE WATERS. THREATS
CONSIDERED ARE GALE-FORCE WINDS AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE WATERS. EXACT SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN BUT EXPECTING SEAS TO ENHANCE
AROUND THE STORM CENTER WHICH LOOKS TO PASS IN VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...VISIBILITIES REDUCED WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 230005
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
705 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS ON TAP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT
WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. QUIET AND
MILD TUESDAY. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHOWERS
PROCEEDING WITH THE MEAN W-E FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE INVOKING ASCENT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. REPORTS BEING
GATHERED OUT OF THE ALBANY REGION AND ACROSS N VT/NH OF A SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN MIXTURE. EVEN THOUGH LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
SPREADS EXIST INDICATIVE OF DRY-AIR AT THE SURFACE...PRECIPITATION
ALBEIT LIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND.

NWS ALBANY HAS EXPANDED THEIR HEADLINES ACCORDINGLY AND FOR GOOD
REASON. BUT HERE WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HOLDING OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. LOOKING AT
PRESENT SURFACE OBS...STILL BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF S NEW ENGLAND E
OF THE BERKSHIRES WITH A PRETTY DECENT S FUNNELING OF FLOW THROUGH
THE CT-RIVER VALLEY KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-30S. ONLY A
COUPLE OF SPOTS ARE REPORTING 34-35 DEGREES IN NW MA AND S NH
/ENHANCED DATA DISPLAY SHOWS THIS WELL/.

FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
BUT COULD BE OVERDONE IF WARMER AIR PERSISTS. REGION APPEARS ON
THE CUSP AND FEEL ONLY POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL EXIST DURING
THE EVENING PERIOD...NOT SO MUCH TO WARRANT WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE WORK ACROSS THE REGION GENERATING
LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT/SPOTTY PRECIPITATION. MAIN CONCERN OF FREEZING
RAIN WITH COLDER AIR TRAPPED ACROSS THE INTERIOR. NOT AN IDEAL
SETUP WITH SUCH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL-JET JUST OFF THE DECK WHICH
WILL PREVENT MUCH OF THE REGION FROM DECOUPLING AND ALSO ALLOW
SOME MILDER AIR ALOFT TO PERHAPS MIX DOWN A BIT.

LOW TEMPS MAY BOTTOM OUT NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN THIS EVENING...BUT THEN GRADUALLY RISE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL NIGHT ACROSS
EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND. IN FACT...THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE 40S ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BLOWING OFF
THE OCEAN. IT WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AS SOME
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE MIX DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...

***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

SUNDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AND RESULT IN MID LEVEL DRYING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH MILDER
TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +5C SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RECOVER
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S AND LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE.
GIVEN MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE PRETTY MILD...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF THE
NEXT SHIFT NEEDS TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW MORE DEGREES. GUIDANCE
SEEMS A BIT COOL CONSIDERING THOSE FACTORS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN BE PASSING WELL TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES VERY
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THE WILL CAUSE A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. GEFS IS SHOWING THAT
PWATS INCREASE TO AT LEAST 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH STRONG FORCING AND HIGH PWATS IN PLACE...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED BUT FORTUNATELY SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.
EXPECT MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE ONE HALF TO 1 INCH
TERRITORY ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING...BUT SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE AND THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR.
THERE ALSO IS A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS ON MONDAY. WE COULD SEE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY...BUT INVERSION
SHOULD KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST ABOVE OUR HEADS. THE ONE FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS IF WE CAN GENERATE A LITTLE FINE LINE THAT
COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO BRIEFLY TOUCH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY MORNING.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW LEFT OVER SPOT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL FOR HIGHS GIVEN
850 MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND +10C. SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME
LOCALES APPROACH 70 IF WE CAN MUSTER A FEW PEEKS OF SUN. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN MIX OUT A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD AROUND TUESDAY
- STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING
- GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

ECHO SIMILAR SENTIMENTS PER WPC: MEANINGFUL SHORT-WAVE DIFFERENCES
LEND TO LOW CONFIDENCE...SIGNIFICANT SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN ENERGY LEND TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. WITH UPSTREAM ISSUES IN
HANDLING PACIFIC ENERGY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS OFF THE
E-COAST AND WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE IMPACTS / OUTCOMES UNTIL WE GET
WITHIN 2-3 DAYS OF THE TIMEFRAME.

HAVE ONLY A MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...BELOW-AVERAGE
PREDICTABILITY. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE STORM ITSELF WILL REMAIN ON
THE W-SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS /AGREED UPON BY WPC/
IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK SO DO NOT PREFER A DRY
OUTCOME.

CONSIDER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS ANOMALOUSLY WARM CONDITIONS
HAVE PREVAILED S OF NOVA SCOTIA. LATELY THE TREND HAS BEEN COLD AIR
SURGING S THROUGH THE C-CONUS TO THE GULF WITH NEW ENGLAND AVERAGING
WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER TROUGH. FEEL TREND CONTINUES
WITH THIS FORECAST. LACK OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION...BELIEVE
RIDGING OVER THE W-ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE BULK OF SYNOPTICS ACROSS
OUR REGION.

SO FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY FORECAST. BLUSTERY W/SW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS / SHORES WITH THE
WARMER OCEAN. OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING UP
TO H9. GUSTS OF AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH... STRONGEST OVER THE SHORES AND
ADJACENT WATERS. WILL REMAIN MILD BENEATH THE SW-FLOW. HIGHS TO NEAR-
60S AS A WARMER AIRMASS LINGERS ALOFT.

NOW AS TO THE STORM...

SYNOPTICALLY...SERIES OF PACIFIC WAVES INVOKE / MAINTAIN A H5 OPEN-
WAVE TROUGH STRETCHING S INTO THE GULF. NO UPSTREAM BLOCKING WITH
TELECONNECTIONS OF +AO/+NAO INDICATING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW OF MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES. INTERACTING WITH THE OFFSHORE SW-NE FRONTAL BOUNDARY-
BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED RESULTS IN DEEPENING
SFC-H85 LOW PRESSURE UP ALONG THE W-ATLANTIC PASSING WITHIN VICINITY
OF THE 40N / 70W BENCH-MARK AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY UP AGAINST AN
INTERIOR REGION LACKING OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE / ARCTIC AIR.

INITIALLY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROADSCALE
ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING OF MID- TO LOW-LEVELS DYNAMICALLY
COOLING TOWARDS EVENING SETTING UP THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
STORM. UNDERCUTTING MARGINALLY COLD AIR AIDED BY SURFACE N/NE-FLOW
WITH W/NW AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW OF INTERIOR ORIGIN LOOK TO KEEP THE N/W
INTERIOR AROUND THE FREEZING MARK...MILD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THERMAL FIELDS DIFFICULT TO DIAGNOSE WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.
KEY IS THE TRACK AND LOCATION OF H85 LOW / H925 < -2C. WHILE
LIKELY TO SEE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIR N/W...ANOTHER KEY TO
THE FORECAST TO THE TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS WETBULBING AT THE
SURFACE.

AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...SURFACE LOW LOOKS
TO TRACK WITHIN THE VICINITY OF 40N / 70W BENCHMARK. UNCERTAIN AS TO
DEPTH / STRENGTH / EXACT TRACK. EXPECT STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT BUT
FEEL BEST MOISTURE WILL BE E OF THE LOW WITHIN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT /WCB/. THOUGH FORCING THROUGH A
MOIST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE NW OF THE H85 LOW BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL-JET...HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN E/NE WITH
THE LACK OF A STRONG H7 CLOSED LOW AND LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING
NOR -EPV /CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB LACKING/. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
UNDERCUT BUT MARGINAL /AROUND UPPER-20S TO LOW-30S/. NO NEIGHBORING
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. WETBULBING LIKELY CONTINUES. SNOWS N/W OF
THE H85 LOW WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS TO AMOUNTS /
HEADLINES AS MODEL RUNS /WHILE PERSISTENT/ CONTINUE TO WOBBLE WITH
THE LOW AND POTENTIAL OUTCOMES. ACTIVITY CONCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY
MORNING REARWARD OF WHICH SOME STRONG SW-FLOW IS POSSIBLE. SEE THE
ADDITIONAL DETAILS BELOW:

SNOWS / HEAVY RAIN...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE N/W INTERIOR FOR
SNOW WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER SE MA...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. NOT EVEN DOES CIPS ANALOGS
PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT CONFIDENCE...AND WITH THE WOBBLING OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE TRACK / STRENGTH OF THE LOW...IT IS ANYONES
GUESS AS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

WINDS...SOME CONCERN DEPENDING THE DEPTH OF THE LOW. NE-FLOW AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BE STRONG...BUT SOME CONCERN AFTER THE LOW PASSES
WITH SW-FLOW IMPACTING THE S-COAST. LIKELY TO BE AN ACCOMPANYING
STRONG LOW-LEVEL-JET. WITH THE 22.12Z GFS...CIPS ANALOGS HAVE A
ROBUST CONFIDENCE OVER SE NEW ENGLAND /MAINLY THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS/ FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 MPH...POSSIBLY 40 MPH. BEARS
MONITORING.

COASTAL FLOODING...INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE NE ALONG E MA INTO
CAPE COD BAY. A BRIEF SURGE ANTICIPATED AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE LOW-CENTER PASSAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. THOUGH HIGH TIDES
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE ASTRONOMICALLY LOW /10 FT
FOR BOSTON/. WITH THE SHORT RESIDENCY TIME...AM NOT ANTICIPATING AT
THIS TIME MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS BASED ON THE FORECAST MODEL
PREFERENCE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

0Z UPDATE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

LOW-END VFR CIGS AT WORST. MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK. ISO-SCT
-SHRA. ISO -FZRA POSSIBLE ACROSS N/W MA AND S NH. NOT TO BE
WIDESPREAD.

MAIN CONCERN: GUSTY W/SW WINDS 25-30 KTS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND E-SHORELINE WHILE 30-35 KTS ACROSS THE S/SE SHORELINE. LLWS A
FACTOR WITH W/SW JET 2 KFT AGL AROUND 40-45 KTS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE INTERIOR WITH DIMINISHED WINDS AND MORE S-FLOW TRAJECTORY.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR-IFR WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
EMBEDDED +RA BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT MONDAY INTO THE MORNING...
TAPERING BY AFTERNOON. LOW RISK TSRA MONDAY MORN ALONG S-COAST.
S-WINDS BY DAYBREAK GUSTING 30-40 KTS OVER E/SE MA...RI...AND E/SE
CT...PERHAPS STRONGER WITH ANY +RA/TSRA. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN
WITH S JET 2 KFT AGL AROUND 50 KTS.

WHILE WET WEATHER EXITS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO VFR...S/SW WINDS REMAIN BRISK WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS OVER SE MA
AND S RI.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. -SHRA TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A
MENTION. COLLABORATION WITH CWSU...WILL CONTINUE LLWS THREAT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD. TDWR / AMDAR SOUNDINGS OBSERVING WINDS
2-3 KFT AGL AROUND 50 KTS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. -SHRA TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A
MENTION. S-FLOW PREVAILING...WARMER CONDITIONS...DO NOT BELIEVE
-FZRA WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR THE TERMINAL.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT MONDAY NIGHT. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. THREATS
CONSIDERED ARE STRONG WINDS AND THE THREAT OF +RA ALONG THE SHORES
WITH SNOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EXACT SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN
BUT EXPECTING A MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS. HEIGHT OF THE STORM
WILL BE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

7 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG W/SW FLOW CONTINUES EXCEEDING GALE FORCE. BOATS ACROSS THE
S-WATERS REPORTING GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 KTS AT TIMES. GALE FORCE
WARNINGS CONTINUE WITH THE THREAT OF AVERAGE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35
KTS...ONLY SMALL-CRAFTS FOR NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BOSTON HARBOR
WHICH SHALL REMAIN SHELTERED FROM THE WINDS. SEAS BUILDING 6-10
FEET OVER THE S-WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GUSTY SW WINDS 25-30 KT IN THE MORNING WILL BE DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DROPPING BELOW SCA DURING AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS. LEFT OVER SWELL WILL KEEPS SEAS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WIND WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS SUNDAY
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN LIFT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
ALLOWING A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. THERE WILL BE AN INVERSION AND ITS ALWAYS UNCERTAIN AS
TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. AT THE VERY
LEAST WILL HAVE STRONG SCA TO PERHAPS GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH VERY LONG
FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY THOUGH GUSTS UP TO
30 KTS EXPECTED. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS EXPECTED
INITIALLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE WATERS. THREATS
CONSIDERED ARE GALE-FORCE WINDS AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE WATERS. EXACT SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN BUT EXPECTING SEAS TO ENHANCE
AROUND THE STORM CENTER WHICH LOOKS TO PASS IN VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...VISIBILITIES REDUCED WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KGYX 222322
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
622 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS
FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
622 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. FORECAST AREA
IS MAINLY DRY RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...WE ARE EXPECTING A LITTLE LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES LATER
THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT.

PREVIOUSLY...

WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL, TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTS FREEZING
RAIN.. WITH TEMPS ALOFT REACHING ABOUT +1.5C. MEANWHILE MANY
NORTHERN REGIONS HAVE YET TO GO ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL AND SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE FOOTHILLS, DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
LEAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND WESTERN NH.
FURTHER EAST IN THE COASTAL PLANE THE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER,
BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN MAY STILL EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE IN ERNST ON SUNDAY DRIVING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 40S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW
APPROACHES FROM OHIO. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS WARMING TREND AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A WARM FNT
NWD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. WITH PCPN MOVING IN SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...FEEL THAT GUIDANCE IS A TAD AGGRESSIVE ON WARM UP. WET
BULBING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LEADING EDGE OF WARM FNT WILL FEATURE
SOME PCPN...MOSTLY SHRA...BUT DRY SLOT QUICKLY FOLLOWS. WEAK LIFT
IN WAA AND LOSS OF SATURATION WILL MEAN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MON. COLD FNT DELAYS UNTIL TUE WHEN IT
CAN MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE EARLY IN THE DAY
BEFORE CAA WIND PICKS UP.

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST HEADING INTO
WED...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A TRICKY THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FORECAST.
THERE ARE TWO S/WV TROFS WE/RE CONCERNED WITH. A NRN STREAM WAVE
MOVING THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND A SRN STREAM FEATURE TRACKING
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE SRN WAVE WILL PICK UP AMPLE
MOISTURE...AND TRIGGER CONVECTION WHICH IS ALWAYS A PROBLEM FOR
MODELING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY FOR AT LEAST A
PARTIAL PHASE...AND ALLOW THE SFC LOW PRES TO TRACK WELL TO THE
W OF THE CMC. ATTM THE GFS REPRESENTS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE WARM AND AMPLIFIED ECMWF...AND THE COLD...OUT TO SEA CMC. DID
RAISE POP AGAIN TO LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TRACK AND INTENSITY MEANS THAT PTYPE FORECASTS WILL
CHANGE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE COMING DAYS. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THAT TRAVEL WED AND THU COULD BE
IMPACTED. THIS IS A FORECAST TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAY SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR
TONIGHT AT HIE AND LEB AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. STRONG JET MOVING
THROUGH WILL RESULT IN WINDSHEAR WITH WINDS WEST AT 40-45KTS
THROUGH ABOUT 05Z SUNDAY. CEILINGS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON AS WARM FNT LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA. SHALLOW COLD AND WAA ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LLWS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS AS STRONG SW FLOW MOVES OVER ALOFT MON. PCPN WILL BE
BRIEF...FOLLOWED BY LOW CLOUDS AND DZ UNTIL COLD FNT CLEARS OUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GUSTY WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUE...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD...AS POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO THU...WITH SN OR MIXED PCPN AWAY
FROM IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GALE WARNING REMAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES
OVERHEARD. OVER THE EASTERN ZONE MATINICUS IS STILL GUSTING 40KTS
WHILE FURTHER WEST AROUND ISLES OF SHOALS WINDS HAVE DECREASED
SLIGHTLY. HAVE LEFT GALE IN PLACE AS THE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
A BIT OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MON AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT.
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FOLLOWS BEHIND IT IN CAA REGIME.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN A COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED INTO THU...WHICH
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. GALES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ007-008.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NHZ001>003-
     005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 222322
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
622 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS
FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
622 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. FORECAST AREA
IS MAINLY DRY RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...WE ARE EXPECTING A LITTLE LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES LATER
THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT.

PREVIOUSLY...

WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL, TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTS FREEZING
RAIN.. WITH TEMPS ALOFT REACHING ABOUT +1.5C. MEANWHILE MANY
NORTHERN REGIONS HAVE YET TO GO ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL AND SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE FOOTHILLS, DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
LEAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND WESTERN NH.
FURTHER EAST IN THE COASTAL PLANE THE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER,
BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN MAY STILL EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE IN ERNST ON SUNDAY DRIVING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 40S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW
APPROACHES FROM OHIO. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS WARMING TREND AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A WARM FNT
NWD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. WITH PCPN MOVING IN SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...FEEL THAT GUIDANCE IS A TAD AGGRESSIVE ON WARM UP. WET
BULBING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LEADING EDGE OF WARM FNT WILL FEATURE
SOME PCPN...MOSTLY SHRA...BUT DRY SLOT QUICKLY FOLLOWS. WEAK LIFT
IN WAA AND LOSS OF SATURATION WILL MEAN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MON. COLD FNT DELAYS UNTIL TUE WHEN IT
CAN MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE EARLY IN THE DAY
BEFORE CAA WIND PICKS UP.

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST HEADING INTO
WED...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A TRICKY THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FORECAST.
THERE ARE TWO S/WV TROFS WE/RE CONCERNED WITH. A NRN STREAM WAVE
MOVING THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND A SRN STREAM FEATURE TRACKING
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE SRN WAVE WILL PICK UP AMPLE
MOISTURE...AND TRIGGER CONVECTION WHICH IS ALWAYS A PROBLEM FOR
MODELING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY FOR AT LEAST A
PARTIAL PHASE...AND ALLOW THE SFC LOW PRES TO TRACK WELL TO THE
W OF THE CMC. ATTM THE GFS REPRESENTS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE WARM AND AMPLIFIED ECMWF...AND THE COLD...OUT TO SEA CMC. DID
RAISE POP AGAIN TO LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TRACK AND INTENSITY MEANS THAT PTYPE FORECASTS WILL
CHANGE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE COMING DAYS. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THAT TRAVEL WED AND THU COULD BE
IMPACTED. THIS IS A FORECAST TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAY SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR
TONIGHT AT HIE AND LEB AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. STRONG JET MOVING
THROUGH WILL RESULT IN WINDSHEAR WITH WINDS WEST AT 40-45KTS
THROUGH ABOUT 05Z SUNDAY. CEILINGS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON AS WARM FNT LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA. SHALLOW COLD AND WAA ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LLWS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS AS STRONG SW FLOW MOVES OVER ALOFT MON. PCPN WILL BE
BRIEF...FOLLOWED BY LOW CLOUDS AND DZ UNTIL COLD FNT CLEARS OUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GUSTY WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUE...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD...AS POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO THU...WITH SN OR MIXED PCPN AWAY
FROM IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GALE WARNING REMAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES
OVERHEARD. OVER THE EASTERN ZONE MATINICUS IS STILL GUSTING 40KTS
WHILE FURTHER WEST AROUND ISLES OF SHOALS WINDS HAVE DECREASED
SLIGHTLY. HAVE LEFT GALE IN PLACE AS THE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
A BIT OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MON AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT.
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FOLLOWS BEHIND IT IN CAA REGIME.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN A COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED INTO THU...WHICH
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. GALES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ007-008.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NHZ001>003-
     005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KBOX 222108
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
407 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS ON TAP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT
WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. QUIET AND
MILD TUESDAY. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

405 PM UPDATE...

WEAK SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.  LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE DRY...BUT SHORTWAVE
SHOULD GENERATE ENOUGH MID LEVEL LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT/SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.  WE ARE MAINLY JUST LOOKING AT A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AND NOT EVEN CLOSE TO A WASHOUT.
THERMAL PROFILES ARE WAY TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW.  THE MAIN CONCERN
IS FOR LOW LEVEL COLD AIR TRAPPED ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP SINCE THERE IS A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET JUST OFF THE DECK.  THIS WILL PREVENT MUCH OF THE REGION
FROM DECOUPLING AND ALSO ALLOW SOME MILDER AIR ALOFT TO PERHAPS MIX
DOWN A BIT.

GIVEN THE ABOVE REASONING...DID NOT ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
WITH THIS PACKAGE.  HOWEVER...STILL COULD BE SOME ISOLATED POCKETS
OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN WITH
THE COLD GROUND AND DRY AIR IN PLACE.  WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.  LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR IN
CASE TEMPS DROP OFF FASTER THAN EXPECTED AND THE NEED ARISES FOR A
SHORT FUSED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

LOW TEMPS MAY BOTTOM OUT NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN THIS EVENING...BUT THEN GRADUALLY RISE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL NIGHT ACROSS
EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND.  IN FACT...THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE 40S ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BLOWING OFF THE
OCEAN.  IT WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AS SOME OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE MIX DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...

***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

SUNDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AND RESULT IN MID LEVEL DRYING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH MILDER
TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +5C SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RECOVER
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S AND LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE.
GIVEN MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE PRETTY MILD...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF THE
NEXT SHIFT NEEDS TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW MORE DEGREES.  GUIDANCE
SEEMS A BIT COOL CONSIDERING THOSE FACTORS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.  STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN BE PASSING WELL TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES VERY
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.  THE WILL CAUSE A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE.  GEFS IS SHOWING THAT
PWATS INCREASE TO AT LEAST 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
MORNING.  WITH STRONG FORCING AND HIGH PWATS IN PLACE...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED BUT FORTUNATELY SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.
EXPECT MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE ONE HALF TO 1 INCH
TERRITORY ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.  NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING...BUT SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE AND THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR.
THERE ALSO IS A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS ON MONDAY.  WE COULD SEE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY...BUT INVERSION
SHOULD KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST ABOVE OUR HEADS.  THE ONE FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS IF WE CAN GENERATE A LITTLE FINE LINE THAT COULD
ALLOW FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO BRIEFLY TOUCH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY MORNING.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW LEFT OVER SPOT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.  GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL FOR HIGHS GIVEN 850
MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND +10C.  SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS.  NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME
LOCALES APPROACH 70 IF WE CAN MUSTER A FEW PEEKS OF SUN.  GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN MIX OUT A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD AROUND TUESDAY
- STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING
- GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

ECHO SIMILAR SENTIMENTS PER WPC: MEANINGFUL SHORT-WAVE DIFFERENCES
LEND TO LOW CONFIDENCE...SIGNIFICANT SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN ENERGY LEND TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. WITH UPSTREAM ISSUES IN
HANDLING PACIFIC ENERGY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS OFF THE
E-COAST AND WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE IMPACTS / OUTCOMES UNTIL WE GET
WITHIN 2-3 DAYS OF THE TIMEFRAME.

HAVE ONLY A MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...BELOW-AVERAGE
PREDICTABILITY. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE STORM ITSELF WILL REMAIN ON
THE W-SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS /AGREED UPON BY WPC/
IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK SO DO NOT PREFER A DRY
OUTCOME.

CONSIDER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS ANOMALOUSLY WARM CONDITIONS
HAVE PREVAILED S OF NOVA SCOTIA. LATELY THE TREND HAS BEEN COLD AIR
SURGING S THROUGH THE C-CONUS TO THE GULF WITH NEW ENGLAND AVERAGING
WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER TROUGH. FEEL TREND CONTINUES
WITH THIS FORECAST. LACK OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION...BELIEVE
RIDGING OVER THE W-ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE BULK OF SYNOPTICS ACROSS
OUR REGION.

SO FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY FORECAST. BLUSTERY W/SW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS / SHORES WITH THE
WARMER OCEAN. OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING UP
TO H9. GUSTS OF AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH... STRONGEST OVER THE SHORES AND
ADJACENT WATERS. WILL REMAIN MILD BENEATH THE SW-FLOW. HIGHS TO NEAR-
60S AS A WARMER AIRMASS LINGERS ALOFT.

NOW AS TO THE STORM...

SYNOPTICALLY...SERIES OF PACIFIC WAVES INVOKE / MAINTAIN A H5 OPEN-
WAVE TROUGH STRETCHING S INTO THE GULF. NO UPSTREAM BLOCKING WITH
TELECONNECTIONS OF +AO/+NAO INDICATING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW OF MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES. INTERACTING WITH THE OFFSHORE SW-NE FRONTAL BOUNDARY-
BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED RESULTS IN DEEPENING
SFC-H85 LOW PRESSURE UP ALONG THE W-ATLANTIC PASSING WITHIN VICINITY
OF THE 40N / 70W BENCH-MARK AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY UP AGAINST AN
INTERIOR REGION LACKING OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE / ARCTIC AIR.

INITIALLY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROADSCALE
ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING OF MID- TO LOW-LEVELS DYNAMICALLY
COOLING TOWARDS EVENING SETTING UP THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
STORM. UNDERCUTTING MARGINALLY COLD AIR AIDED BY SURFACE N/NE-FLOW
WITH W/NW AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW OF INTERIOR ORIGIN LOOK TO KEEP THE N/W
INTERIOR AROUND THE FREEZING MARK...MILD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THERMAL FIELDS DIFFICULT TO DIAGNOSE WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. KEY
IS THE TRACK AND LOCATION OF H85 LOW / H925 < -2C. WHILE LIKELY TO
SEE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIR N/W...ANOTHER KEY TO THE FORECAST
TO THE TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS WETBULBING AT THE SURFACE.

AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...SURFACE LOW LOOKS
TO TRACK WITHIN THE VICINITY OF 40N / 70W BENCHMARK. UNCERTAIN AS TO
DEPTH / STRENGTH / EXACT TRACK. EXPECT STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT BUT
FEEL BEST MOISTURE WILL BE E OF THE LOW WITHIN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM-CONVEYOR-BELT /WCB/. THOUGH FORCING THROUGH A
MOIST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE NW OF THE H85 LOW BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL-JET...HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN E/NE WITH
THE LACK OF A STRONG H7 CLOSED LOW AND LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING
NOR -EPV /CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB LACKING/. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
UNDERCUT BUT MARGINAL /AROUND UPPER-20S TO LOW-30S/. NO NEIGHBORING
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. WETBULBING LIKELY CONTINUES. SNOWS N/W OF
THE H85 LOW WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS TO AMOUNTS /
HEADLINES AS MODEL RUNS /WHILE PERSISTENT/ CONTINUE TO WOBBLE WITH
THE LOW AND POTENTIAL OUTCOMES. ACTIVITY CONCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY
MORNING REARWARD OF WHICH SOME STRONG SW-FLOW IS POSSIBLE. SEE THE
ADDITIONAL DETAILS BELOW:

SNOWS / HEAVY RAIN...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE N/W INTERIOR FOR
SNOW WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER SE MA...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. NOT EVEN DOES CIPS ANALOGS
PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT CONFIDENCE...AND WITH THE WOBBLING OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE TRACK / STRENGTH OF THE LOW...IT IS ANYONES
GUESS AS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

WINDS...SOME CONCERN DEPENDING THE DEPTH OF THE LOW. NE-FLOW AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BE STRONG...BUT SOME CONCERN AFTER THE LOW PASSES
WITH SW-FLOW IMPACTING THE S-CAOST. LIKELY TO BE AN ACCOMPANYING
STRONG LOW-LEVEL-JET. WITH THE 22.12Z GFS...CIPS ANALOGS HAVE A
ROBUST CONFIDENCE OVER SE NEW ENGLAND /MAINLY THE CAPE AND ISLANDS/
FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 MPH...POSSIBLY 40 MPH. BEARS MONITORING.

COASTAL FLOODING...INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE NE ALONG E MA INTO
CAPE COD BAY. A BRIEF SURGE ANTICIPATED AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE LOW-CENTER PASSAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. THOUGH HIGH TIDES
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE ASTRONOMICALLY LOW /10 FT
FOR BOSTON/. WITH THE SHORT RESIDENCY TIME...AM NOT ANTICIPATING AT
THIS TIME MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS BASED ON THE FORECAST MODEL
PREFERENCE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

4 PM UPDATE...

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MARGINAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN A FEW SHOWERS.  ISOLATED POCKETS OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DISTANT INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN...BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD AS TEMPS ARE
MARGINAL. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  ELSEWHERE...AS SURFACE WINDS
DIMINISH SOME EXPECT LLWS WITH A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET OFF THE
DECK.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE EVENING.  EXPECT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN RAIN
WHICH MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AFTER 6Z CONTINUING INTO MONDAY
MORNING....BEFORE TAPERING TO A FEW LEFT OVER SPOT SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON.  LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MON AM ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.  LLWS
WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN.  GUSTY WINDS MAY OVER SPREAD THE REST OF THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN MUSTER SOME PEEKS
OF SUNSHINE ALLOWING BETTER MIXING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CIGS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SW GUSTS 25-30 KT CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.  SOME
LLWS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT
DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY -FZRA. LOW PROB FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.
LLWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT MONDAY NIGHT. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. THREATS
CONSIDERED ARE STRONG WINDS AND THE THREAT OF +RA ALONG THE SHORES
WITH SNOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EXACT SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN
BUT EXPECTING A MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS. HEIGHT OF THE STORM
WILL BE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY.



&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  GIVEN STRONG WEST TO
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL AND AIR STILL COLDER THAN THE OCEAN...GALE FORCE
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS MANY OPEN WATERS TONIGHT.
GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR MOST OPEN WATERS WITH SCA HEADLINES FOR
BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY.  SEAS BUILD TO 6 TO 10 FEET
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  GUSTY SW WINDS 25-30 KT IN
THE MORNING WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DROPPING BELOW
SCA DURING AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.  LEFT OVER SWELL WILL
KEEPS SEAS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WIND WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS SUNDAY EVENING.  LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN LIFT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWING A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET TO DEVELOP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.  THERE WILL BE AN
INVERSION AND ITS ALWAYS UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WIND WILL
BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN.  AT THE VERY LEAST WILL HAVE STRONG SCA TO
PERHAPS GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO
MON.  SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS WITH VERY LONG FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY THOUGH GUSTS UP TO
30 KTS EXPECTED. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS EXPECTED
INITIALLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE WATERS. THREATS
CONSIDERED ARE GALE-FORCE WINDS AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE WATERS. EXACT SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN BUT EXPECTING SEAS TO ENHANCE
AROUND THE STORM CENTER WHICH LOOKS TO PASS IN VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...VISIBILITIES REDUCED WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 222108
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
407 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS ON TAP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT
WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. QUIET AND
MILD TUESDAY. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

405 PM UPDATE...

WEAK SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.  LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE DRY...BUT SHORTWAVE
SHOULD GENERATE ENOUGH MID LEVEL LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT/SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.  WE ARE MAINLY JUST LOOKING AT A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AND NOT EVEN CLOSE TO A WASHOUT.
THERMAL PROFILES ARE WAY TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW.  THE MAIN CONCERN
IS FOR LOW LEVEL COLD AIR TRAPPED ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP SINCE THERE IS A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET JUST OFF THE DECK.  THIS WILL PREVENT MUCH OF THE REGION
FROM DECOUPLING AND ALSO ALLOW SOME MILDER AIR ALOFT TO PERHAPS MIX
DOWN A BIT.

GIVEN THE ABOVE REASONING...DID NOT ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
WITH THIS PACKAGE.  HOWEVER...STILL COULD BE SOME ISOLATED POCKETS
OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN WITH
THE COLD GROUND AND DRY AIR IN PLACE.  WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.  LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR IN
CASE TEMPS DROP OFF FASTER THAN EXPECTED AND THE NEED ARISES FOR A
SHORT FUSED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

LOW TEMPS MAY BOTTOM OUT NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN THIS EVENING...BUT THEN GRADUALLY RISE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL NIGHT ACROSS
EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND.  IN FACT...THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE 40S ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BLOWING OFF THE
OCEAN.  IT WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AS SOME OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE MIX DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...

***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

SUNDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AND RESULT IN MID LEVEL DRYING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH MILDER
TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +5C SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RECOVER
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S AND LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE.
GIVEN MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE PRETTY MILD...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF THE
NEXT SHIFT NEEDS TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW MORE DEGREES.  GUIDANCE
SEEMS A BIT COOL CONSIDERING THOSE FACTORS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.  STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN BE PASSING WELL TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES VERY
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.  THE WILL CAUSE A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE.  GEFS IS SHOWING THAT
PWATS INCREASE TO AT LEAST 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
MORNING.  WITH STRONG FORCING AND HIGH PWATS IN PLACE...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED BUT FORTUNATELY SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.
EXPECT MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE ONE HALF TO 1 INCH
TERRITORY ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.  NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING...BUT SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE AND THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR.
THERE ALSO IS A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS ON MONDAY.  WE COULD SEE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY...BUT INVERSION
SHOULD KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST ABOVE OUR HEADS.  THE ONE FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS IF WE CAN GENERATE A LITTLE FINE LINE THAT COULD
ALLOW FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO BRIEFLY TOUCH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY MORNING.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW LEFT OVER SPOT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.  GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL FOR HIGHS GIVEN 850
MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND +10C.  SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS.  NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME
LOCALES APPROACH 70 IF WE CAN MUSTER A FEW PEEKS OF SUN.  GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN MIX OUT A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD AROUND TUESDAY
- STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING
- GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

ECHO SIMILAR SENTIMENTS PER WPC: MEANINGFUL SHORT-WAVE DIFFERENCES
LEND TO LOW CONFIDENCE...SIGNIFICANT SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN ENERGY LEND TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. WITH UPSTREAM ISSUES IN
HANDLING PACIFIC ENERGY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS OFF THE
E-COAST AND WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE IMPACTS / OUTCOMES UNTIL WE GET
WITHIN 2-3 DAYS OF THE TIMEFRAME.

HAVE ONLY A MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...BELOW-AVERAGE
PREDICTABILITY. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE STORM ITSELF WILL REMAIN ON
THE W-SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS /AGREED UPON BY WPC/
IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK SO DO NOT PREFER A DRY
OUTCOME.

CONSIDER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS ANOMALOUSLY WARM CONDITIONS
HAVE PREVAILED S OF NOVA SCOTIA. LATELY THE TREND HAS BEEN COLD AIR
SURGING S THROUGH THE C-CONUS TO THE GULF WITH NEW ENGLAND AVERAGING
WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER TROUGH. FEEL TREND CONTINUES
WITH THIS FORECAST. LACK OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION...BELIEVE
RIDGING OVER THE W-ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE BULK OF SYNOPTICS ACROSS
OUR REGION.

SO FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY FORECAST. BLUSTERY W/SW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS / SHORES WITH THE
WARMER OCEAN. OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING UP
TO H9. GUSTS OF AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH... STRONGEST OVER THE SHORES AND
ADJACENT WATERS. WILL REMAIN MILD BENEATH THE SW-FLOW. HIGHS TO NEAR-
60S AS A WARMER AIRMASS LINGERS ALOFT.

NOW AS TO THE STORM...

SYNOPTICALLY...SERIES OF PACIFIC WAVES INVOKE / MAINTAIN A H5 OPEN-
WAVE TROUGH STRETCHING S INTO THE GULF. NO UPSTREAM BLOCKING WITH
TELECONNECTIONS OF +AO/+NAO INDICATING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW OF MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES. INTERACTING WITH THE OFFSHORE SW-NE FRONTAL BOUNDARY-
BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED RESULTS IN DEEPENING
SFC-H85 LOW PRESSURE UP ALONG THE W-ATLANTIC PASSING WITHIN VICINITY
OF THE 40N / 70W BENCH-MARK AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY UP AGAINST AN
INTERIOR REGION LACKING OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE / ARCTIC AIR.

INITIALLY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROADSCALE
ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING OF MID- TO LOW-LEVELS DYNAMICALLY
COOLING TOWARDS EVENING SETTING UP THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
STORM. UNDERCUTTING MARGINALLY COLD AIR AIDED BY SURFACE N/NE-FLOW
WITH W/NW AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW OF INTERIOR ORIGIN LOOK TO KEEP THE N/W
INTERIOR AROUND THE FREEZING MARK...MILD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THERMAL FIELDS DIFFICULT TO DIAGNOSE WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. KEY
IS THE TRACK AND LOCATION OF H85 LOW / H925 < -2C. WHILE LIKELY TO
SEE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIR N/W...ANOTHER KEY TO THE FORECAST
TO THE TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS WETBULBING AT THE SURFACE.

AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...SURFACE LOW LOOKS
TO TRACK WITHIN THE VICINITY OF 40N / 70W BENCHMARK. UNCERTAIN AS TO
DEPTH / STRENGTH / EXACT TRACK. EXPECT STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT BUT
FEEL BEST MOISTURE WILL BE E OF THE LOW WITHIN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM-CONVEYOR-BELT /WCB/. THOUGH FORCING THROUGH A
MOIST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE NW OF THE H85 LOW BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL-JET...HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN E/NE WITH
THE LACK OF A STRONG H7 CLOSED LOW AND LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING
NOR -EPV /CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB LACKING/. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
UNDERCUT BUT MARGINAL /AROUND UPPER-20S TO LOW-30S/. NO NEIGHBORING
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. WETBULBING LIKELY CONTINUES. SNOWS N/W OF
THE H85 LOW WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS TO AMOUNTS /
HEADLINES AS MODEL RUNS /WHILE PERSISTENT/ CONTINUE TO WOBBLE WITH
THE LOW AND POTENTIAL OUTCOMES. ACTIVITY CONCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY
MORNING REARWARD OF WHICH SOME STRONG SW-FLOW IS POSSIBLE. SEE THE
ADDITIONAL DETAILS BELOW:

SNOWS / HEAVY RAIN...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE N/W INTERIOR FOR
SNOW WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER SE MA...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. NOT EVEN DOES CIPS ANALOGS
PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT CONFIDENCE...AND WITH THE WOBBLING OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE TRACK / STRENGTH OF THE LOW...IT IS ANYONES
GUESS AS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

WINDS...SOME CONCERN DEPENDING THE DEPTH OF THE LOW. NE-FLOW AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BE STRONG...BUT SOME CONCERN AFTER THE LOW PASSES
WITH SW-FLOW IMPACTING THE S-CAOST. LIKELY TO BE AN ACCOMPANYING
STRONG LOW-LEVEL-JET. WITH THE 22.12Z GFS...CIPS ANALOGS HAVE A
ROBUST CONFIDENCE OVER SE NEW ENGLAND /MAINLY THE CAPE AND ISLANDS/
FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 MPH...POSSIBLY 40 MPH. BEARS MONITORING.

COASTAL FLOODING...INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE NE ALONG E MA INTO
CAPE COD BAY. A BRIEF SURGE ANTICIPATED AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE LOW-CENTER PASSAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. THOUGH HIGH TIDES
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE ASTRONOMICALLY LOW /10 FT
FOR BOSTON/. WITH THE SHORT RESIDENCY TIME...AM NOT ANTICIPATING AT
THIS TIME MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS BASED ON THE FORECAST MODEL
PREFERENCE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

4 PM UPDATE...

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MARGINAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN A FEW SHOWERS.  ISOLATED POCKETS OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DISTANT INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN...BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD AS TEMPS ARE
MARGINAL. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  ELSEWHERE...AS SURFACE WINDS
DIMINISH SOME EXPECT LLWS WITH A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET OFF THE
DECK.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE EVENING.  EXPECT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN RAIN
WHICH MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AFTER 6Z CONTINUING INTO MONDAY
MORNING....BEFORE TAPERING TO A FEW LEFT OVER SPOT SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON.  LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MON AM ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.  LLWS
WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN.  GUSTY WINDS MAY OVER SPREAD THE REST OF THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN MUSTER SOME PEEKS
OF SUNSHINE ALLOWING BETTER MIXING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CIGS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SW GUSTS 25-30 KT CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.  SOME
LLWS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT
DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY -FZRA. LOW PROB FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.
LLWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT MONDAY NIGHT. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. THREATS
CONSIDERED ARE STRONG WINDS AND THE THREAT OF +RA ALONG THE SHORES
WITH SNOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EXACT SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN
BUT EXPECTING A MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS. HEIGHT OF THE STORM
WILL BE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY.



&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  GIVEN STRONG WEST TO
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL AND AIR STILL COLDER THAN THE OCEAN...GALE FORCE
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS MANY OPEN WATERS TONIGHT.
GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR MOST OPEN WATERS WITH SCA HEADLINES FOR
BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY.  SEAS BUILD TO 6 TO 10 FEET
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  GUSTY SW WINDS 25-30 KT IN
THE MORNING WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DROPPING BELOW
SCA DURING AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.  LEFT OVER SWELL WILL
KEEPS SEAS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WIND WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS SUNDAY EVENING.  LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN LIFT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWING A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET TO DEVELOP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.  THERE WILL BE AN
INVERSION AND ITS ALWAYS UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WIND WILL
BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN.  AT THE VERY LEAST WILL HAVE STRONG SCA TO
PERHAPS GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO
MON.  SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS WITH VERY LONG FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY THOUGH GUSTS UP TO
30 KTS EXPECTED. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS EXPECTED
INITIALLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE WATERS. THREATS
CONSIDERED ARE GALE-FORCE WINDS AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE WATERS. EXACT SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN BUT EXPECTING SEAS TO ENHANCE
AROUND THE STORM CENTER WHICH LOOKS TO PASS IN VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...VISIBILITIES REDUCED WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KGYX 222035
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
335 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS
FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL, TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTS FREEZING
RAIN.. WITH TEMPS ALOFT REACHING ABOUT +1.5C. MEANWHILE MANY
NORTHERN REGIONS HAVE YET TO GO ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL AND SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE FOOTHILLS, DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
LEAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND WESTERN NH.
FURTHER EAST IN THE COASTAL PLANE THE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER,
BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN MAY STILL EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE IN ERNST ON SUNDAY DRIVING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 40S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW
APPROACHES FROM OHIO. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS WARMING TREND AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A WARM FNT
NWD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. WITH PCPN MOVING IN SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...FEEL THAT GUIDANCE IS A TAD AGGRESSIVE ON WARM UP. WET
BULBING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LEADING EDGE OF WARM FNT WILL FEATURE
SOME PCPN...MOSTLY SHRA...BUT DRY SLOT QUICKLY FOLLOWS. WEAK LIFT
IN WAA AND LOSS OF SATURATION WILL MEAN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MON. COLD FNT DELAYS UNTIL TUE WHEN IT
CAN MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE EARLY IN THE DAY
BEFORE CAA WIND PICKS UP.

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST HEADING INTO
WED...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A TRICKY THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FORECAST.
THERE ARE TWO S/WV TROFS WE/RE CONCERNED WITH. A NRN STREAM WAVE
MOVING THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND A SRN STREAM FEATURE TRACKING
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE SRN WAVE WILL PICK UP AMPLE
MOISTURE...AND TRIGGER CONVECTION WHICH IS ALWAYS A PROBLEM FOR
MODELING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY FOR AT LEAST A
PARTIAL PHASE...AND ALLOW THE SFC LOW PRES TO TRACK WELL TO THE
W OF THE CMC. ATTM THE GFS REPRESENTS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE WARM AND AMPLIFIED ECMWF...AND THE COLD...OUT TO SEA CMC. DID
RAISE POP AGAIN TO LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TRACK AND INTENSITY MEANS THAT PTYPE FORECASTS WILL
CHANGE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE COMING DAYS. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THAT TRAVEL WED AND THU COULD BE
IMPACTED. THIS IS A FORECAST TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAY SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR
TONIGHT AT HIE AND LEB AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. STRONG JET MOVING
THROUGH WILL RESULT IN WINDSHEAR WITH WINDS WEST AT 40-45KTS
THROUGH ABOUT 05Z SUNDAY. CEILINGS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON AS WARM FNT LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA. SHALLOW COLD AND WAA ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LLWS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS AS STRONG SW FLOW MOVES OVER ALOFT MON. PCPN WILL BE
BRIEF...FOLLOWED BY LOW CLOUDS AND DZ UNTIL COLD FNT CLEARS OUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GUSTY WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUE...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD...AS POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO THU...WITH SN OR MIXED PCPN AWAY
FROM IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GALE WARNING REMAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES
OVERHEARD. OVER THE EASTERN ZONE MATINICUS IS STILL GUSTING 40KTS
WHILE FURTHER WEST AROUND ISLES OF SHOALS WINDS HAVE DECREASED
SLIGHTLY. HAVE LEFT GALE IN PLACE AS THE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
A BIT OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MON AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT.
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FOLLOWS BEHIND IT IN CAA REGIME.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN A COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED INTO THU...WHICH
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. GALES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ007-008.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NHZ001>003-
     005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 222035
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
335 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS
FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL, TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTS FREEZING
RAIN.. WITH TEMPS ALOFT REACHING ABOUT +1.5C. MEANWHILE MANY
NORTHERN REGIONS HAVE YET TO GO ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL AND SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE FOOTHILLS, DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
LEAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND WESTERN NH.
FURTHER EAST IN THE COASTAL PLANE THE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER,
BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN MAY STILL EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE IN ERNST ON SUNDAY DRIVING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 40S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW
APPROACHES FROM OHIO. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS WARMING TREND AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A WARM FNT
NWD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. WITH PCPN MOVING IN SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...FEEL THAT GUIDANCE IS A TAD AGGRESSIVE ON WARM UP. WET
BULBING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LEADING EDGE OF WARM FNT WILL FEATURE
SOME PCPN...MOSTLY SHRA...BUT DRY SLOT QUICKLY FOLLOWS. WEAK LIFT
IN WAA AND LOSS OF SATURATION WILL MEAN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MON. COLD FNT DELAYS UNTIL TUE WHEN IT
CAN MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE EARLY IN THE DAY
BEFORE CAA WIND PICKS UP.

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST HEADING INTO
WED...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A TRICKY THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FORECAST.
THERE ARE TWO S/WV TROFS WE/RE CONCERNED WITH. A NRN STREAM WAVE
MOVING THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND A SRN STREAM FEATURE TRACKING
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE SRN WAVE WILL PICK UP AMPLE
MOISTURE...AND TRIGGER CONVECTION WHICH IS ALWAYS A PROBLEM FOR
MODELING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY FOR AT LEAST A
PARTIAL PHASE...AND ALLOW THE SFC LOW PRES TO TRACK WELL TO THE
W OF THE CMC. ATTM THE GFS REPRESENTS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE WARM AND AMPLIFIED ECMWF...AND THE COLD...OUT TO SEA CMC. DID
RAISE POP AGAIN TO LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TRACK AND INTENSITY MEANS THAT PTYPE FORECASTS WILL
CHANGE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE COMING DAYS. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THAT TRAVEL WED AND THU COULD BE
IMPACTED. THIS IS A FORECAST TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAY SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR
TONIGHT AT HIE AND LEB AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. STRONG JET MOVING
THROUGH WILL RESULT IN WINDSHEAR WITH WINDS WEST AT 40-45KTS
THROUGH ABOUT 05Z SUNDAY. CEILINGS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON AS WARM FNT LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA. SHALLOW COLD AND WAA ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LLWS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS AS STRONG SW FLOW MOVES OVER ALOFT MON. PCPN WILL BE
BRIEF...FOLLOWED BY LOW CLOUDS AND DZ UNTIL COLD FNT CLEARS OUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GUSTY WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUE...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD...AS POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO THU...WITH SN OR MIXED PCPN AWAY
FROM IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GALE WARNING REMAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES
OVERHEARD. OVER THE EASTERN ZONE MATINICUS IS STILL GUSTING 40KTS
WHILE FURTHER WEST AROUND ISLES OF SHOALS WINDS HAVE DECREASED
SLIGHTLY. HAVE LEFT GALE IN PLACE AS THE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
A BIT OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MON AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT.
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FOLLOWS BEHIND IT IN CAA REGIME.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN A COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED INTO THU...WHICH
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. GALES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ007-008.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NHZ001>003-
     005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO




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