Home > Products > State Listing > New Hampshire Data
Latest:
 AFDGYX |  AFDBOX |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBOX 311146
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
746 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM
WILL MOVE UP THE COAST SATURDAY AND PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE OR TWO COLD FRONTS MAY CROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
745 AM UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS AT 07Z...THOUGH NOTING SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AS
WELL AS ALONG THE S COAST ON LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP. NAM AND GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING THAT THE 5-6KFT CEILINGS MAY BREAK UP
BRIEFLY AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPING AS NE WINDS
BRING IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON...
AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS.

LOW PRES MOVES SE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES...THEN SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT BEGINS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
DEEP MOISTURE WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS WILL REMAIN S OF THE REGION SO
HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING. MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY ALONG THE E COAST...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.

EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY RISE TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
INLAND TERRAIN...THEN MAINLY IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE WITH THE
FRESHENING E-NE WINDS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...SHORT RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF NOT ONE BUT TWO CENTERS OF LOW PRES AS H5 LONG
WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SE U.S. NOTING TWO STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JETS MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS DIGGING TROUGH...THE FIRST
90-100 KT H3 JET AXIS WORKS NE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
INTENSIFY THE FIRST LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AROUND 12Z SAT.

AREA OF RAIN WILL WORK STEADILY NORTHWARD...ESPECIALLY AROUND OR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE NE WINDS INCREASE ALONG THE COAST
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS. BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS RI/E MA.

EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER SW NH TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
DEEP AMPLITUDE TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE IN
BETWEEN. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH GENERATES A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW WITH TWO JET STREAMS...A NORTHERN STREAM ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER AND A SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING WITH THE SHORT
WAVE. THE PATTERN SHIFTS EAST DURING THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE PATTERN THEN TRANSFORMS TO A MORE
ZONAL FLOW. REMAINS OF THE PACIFIC COAST TROUGH MOVE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND MIDWEEK.

COLDER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS INCREASE TO NORMAL OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.
THIS POINTS TO A COLDER THAN NORMAL WEEKEND...TRENDING TO NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK.

31/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE REMAINS IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT. THERE
ALSO REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK...INTENSITY AND TIMING. AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS SNOWFALL IS MOSTLY OFF THE TABLE AWAY FROM A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
EVEN THEN...IT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. FAVORED A BLEND TO SMOOTH
OVER SOME OF THE MORE MINOR DIFFERENCES. THIS RESULTED IN VERY
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED FOR SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY. SUPPORT COMES FROM TWO SETS OF FORCING MECHANISMS...
SUGGESTING A TWO-PART EVENT. INITIAL FORCING COMES FROM RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF NORTHERN STREAM JET SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
SEND A COASTAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PAST SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

THE SECOND FORCING COMES FROM LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET SUPPORTING
A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH LATE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO...MOST OF THE FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING WITH EACH SEGMENT IS FOCUSED OFFSHORE INTO THE MARITIMES
AND MAINE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS FORCING SHOULD EXTEND INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE FIRST...AND POSSIBLY THE SECOND...OF
THE SEGMENTS. WE EXPECT RAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHEST POPS OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...LESSER VALUES NORTH
AND WEST.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE AND A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WINDY CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE OVER THE EASTERN/SOUTHEAST WATERS. STRONGEST LAND WINDS WILL BE
OVER THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS...DIMINISHING FARTHER WEST. HAVE
FEATURED 45 KNOTS FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS AND 20-25 KNOTS IN THE
INTERIOR.

A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS US IN PIECES SATURDAY AND LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS NOTED ABOVE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND END ON THE MA EAST COAST AFTER
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THIS STORM SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR ALL RAIN. AS THE WINDS SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN IN WHICH COULD CHANGE
THE LAST SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN A TRACE...WHERE IT
SNOWS AT ALL.

DRIER AIR SUNDAY WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. COLD ADVECTION WILL
PROMOTE MIXING THROUGH AT LEAST 850 MB. WINDS IN THIS LAYER WILL
BE 35 TO 40 KNOTS...SO EXPECT NORTHWEST GUSTS TO AT LEAST THE
LOWER END OF THIS RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM
MOVES FARTHER AWAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MONDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY AS
THIS HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. MIXING WILL AGAIN BRING INCREASED WIND
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE EXPECTED
AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE STRONGER SPEEDS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAKE ROOM
FOR A WARM FRONT TO SWING PAST. SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT THE BEST WARM FRONTAL LIFT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SUN THROUGH
THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON MIDWEEK WEATHER. AT LEAST ONE TROUGH IN THE
ZONAL FLOW WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE HINTING AT ONE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOWING A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH PASSING ON THURSDAY. THE FORECAST WILL HAVE
CLOUDS AND LOW-END CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ANY LEFTOVER IFR CIGS IN PATCHY FOG
WILL IMPROVE BY 13Z.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
NIGHT TO MVFR-IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS ALONG
THE COAST. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE S COAST AND INTO SE MA
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOVING INTO THE REMAINDER MOST OF THE
REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...IFR CIGS AND MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN PERIODS OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR AND DRIER WEATHER MOVE IN FROM WEST
TO EAST EARLY SUNDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY GUSTING 35-45 KNOTS
ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND 25-35 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND NORTHWEST SUNDAY. GUSTS 40-
45 KNOTS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...WITH 25-35 KNOTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY...VFR. DAYTIME WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS
INLAND AND 35 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS...DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. WINDS
WILL VEER TO E-NE DURING THE DAY AND BEGIN TO PICK UP. GUSTS UP TO
20 KT REACH THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BY LATE IN THE DAY. SEAS
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.

TONIGHT...E-NE WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT. SMALL
CRAFTS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE WATERS...BUT NOT QUITE
THERE FOR BOSTON HARBOR AND MASS/IPSWICH BAYS. SEAS WILL ALSO
BUILD ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS DURING THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...STRONG POTENTIAL FOR HIGH END GALES...WITH LOW
POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE WINDS. ON THE OUTER WATERS...EXPECT
GUSTS TO AT LEAST 45 KNOTS.

EXPECT RAIN WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS. GALE FORCE GUSTS
EXPECTED ON MOST OF THE WATERS. RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF GALE FORCE
WINDS IN BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY. GALE WATCHES POSTED
FOR ALL WATERS. KEPT IT SIMPLE FOR NOW...BUT WILL DEFINITELY NEED
TO REFINE THE TIMING FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WITH LATER
FORECASTS.

SUNDAY...RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST WITH
GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS. EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH
BELOW GALE FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WIND SHIFT...ROUGH SEAS
WILL TRANSITION FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH DIMINISHING SEAS CLOSER TO
SHORE. GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

MONDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING GALE
FORCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING. SEAS
WILL LINGER AT 5-9 FEET...ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY...LOW END CHANCE THAT GALES MAY BE NEEDED
ON SOME OF THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW SATURDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH
SEAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
AND BEACH EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST...PARTICULARLY THE
NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET HARBOR DURING BOTH HIGH TIDE
CYCLES.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND WHEN AND HOW STRONG THE
WINDS/SEAS WILL GET. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE SHOWING TWO PULSES OF
WIND WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. THE FIRST ONE APPEARS TO BE
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE SECOND ONE SUNDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL
CONTINUES FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 20
FEET ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS. WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE HOW THE MODELS TREND...BUT STILL FEEL BOTH HIGH TIDE
CYCLES ARE AT RISK WITH A 1 TO 2 FOOT STORM SURGE.

AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN APPEAR TO BE THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD...SUCH AS SANDWICH...BARNSTABLE...DENNIS...BREWSTER AND
POSSIBLY EASTHAM. OTHER TYPICAL HOT SPOTS WILL BE SALISBURY AND
PLUM ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND
NANTUCKET HARBOR. AGAIN...THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AS WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>234-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KGYX 311109 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
709 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
ON MONDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING. CLOUD COVER HAS HUNG IN OVERNIGHT AS ADVERTISED BY MODEL
925-850MB RH AND WILL LIKELY BE HERE FOR THE DAY. LOCATIONS OVER
CENTRAL MAINE THAT WERE NOT UNDER CLOUD COVER DROPPED DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 20S THIS MORNING.

&&

HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TODAY EVEN AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZES NEAR THE CAROLINAS. WE WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS BUT
ANY RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH DESPITE A
CHILLY START.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LIGHT WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S EARLY ON...
WITH MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND LOWER 40S ALONG
THE COAST. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO FALL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS
TOP DOWN SATURATION OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD ONTO
THE NH AND MAINE COASTS BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE INFLUENCE FROM
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS MOVING UP THE EAST
COAST IS FELT. THE SECOND...MORE DYNAMIC LOW WILL PHASE WITH THE
FIRST LOW SOMETIME SUNDAY AND BRING MEASURABLE SNOW TO MUCH OF
EASTERN MAINE. MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH 6
PM WILL RESIDE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A
COUPLE INCHES. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AREAWIDE. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA. WE SHOULD HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COAST
AND PERHAPS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY DEEPENS
JUST OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL COOL OVERNIGHT AS
COLDER AIR IS DRAWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
APPEARS RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO WET SNOW IN
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AND THIS TREND WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH
TO THE COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES SUGGEST MORE OF A MIX
IN MIDCOAST AND INTERIOR CENTRAL MAINE. BIG DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
QPF AT THIS POINT SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL A BIG QUESTION BUT THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY AS INTENSE LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS INTO THE MARITIMES. EXPECT MIXED PRECIP IN SOUTHERN ZONES
TO GRADUALLY GO OVER TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR FLOODS IN BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. COULD SEE SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF WET
SNOW IN NORTHERN ZONES BEFORE PRECIP TAPERS OFF LATE IN THE DAY.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE WINDS WILL SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S NORTH AND
MID TO UPPER 20S SOUTH.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.
EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY BEFORE DROPPING OFF IN THE EVENING. HIGH WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. WEAK OVER-RUNNING
SETTING UP TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY TO NORTHERN
ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
VARIABLE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE SOUTH WITH A LITTLE MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS IN THE NORTH ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND INCREASING POPS IN NORTHWEST ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS. THE FRONT WILL
STALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL SPIN UP LOW PRESSURE ON THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT
SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND OR MIXED PRECIP ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
VFR CEILINGS.

LONG TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO INCREASE. HAVE ISSUED A
GALE WATCH FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS
SEAS INCREASE TO 8-12 FT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL SKIRT STORM FORCE SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

HANES/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310840
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
440 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM
WILL MOVE UP THE COAST SATURDAY AND PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE OR TWO COLD FRONTS MAY CROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS AT 07Z...THOUGH NOTING SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AS
WELL AS ALONG THE S COAST ON LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP. NAM AND GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING THAT THE 5-6KFT CEILINGS MAY BREAK UP
BRIEFLY AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPING AS NE WINDS
BRING IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON...
AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS.

LOW PRES MOVES SE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES...THEN SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT BEGINS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
DEEP MOISTURE WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS WILL REMAIN S OF THE REGION SO
HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING. MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY ALONG THE E COAST...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.

EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY RISE TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
INLAND TERRAIN...THEN MAINLY IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE WITH THE
FRESHENING E-NE WINDS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...SHORT RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF NOT ONE BUT TWO CENTERS OF LOW PRES AS H5 LONG
WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SE U.S. NOTING TWO STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JETS MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS DIGGING TROUGH...THE FIRST
90-100 KT H3 JET AXIS WORKS NE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
INTENSIFY THE FIRST LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AROUND 12Z SAT.

AREA OF RAIN WILL WORK STEADILY NORTHWARD...ESPECIALLY AROUND OR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE NE WINDS INCREASE ALONG THE COAST
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS. BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS RI/E MA.

EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER SW NH TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
DEEP AMPLITUDE TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE IN
BETWEEN. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH GENERATES A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW WITH TWO JET STREAMS...A NORTHERN STREAM ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER AND A SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING WITH THE SHORT
WAVE. THE PATTERN SHIFTS EAST DURING THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE PATTERN THEN TRANSFORMS TO A MORE
ZONAL FLOW. REMAINS OF THE PACIFIC COAST TROUGH MOVE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND MIDWEEK.

COLDER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS INCREASE TO NORMAL OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.
THIS POINTS TO A COLDER THAN NORMAL WEEKEND...TRENDING TO NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK.

31/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE REMAINS IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT. THERE
ALSO REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK...INTENSITY AND TIMING. AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS SNOWFALL IS MOSTLY OFF THE TABLE AWAY FROM A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
EVEN THEN...IT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. FAVORED A BLEND TO SMOOTH
OVER SOME OF THE MORE MINOR DIFFERENCES. THIS RESULTED IN VERY
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED FOR SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY. SUPPORT COMES FROM TWO SETS OF FORCING MECHANISMS...
SUGGESTING A TWO-PART EVENT. INITIAL FORCING COMES FROM RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF NORTHERN STREAM JET SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
SEND A COASTAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PAST SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

THE SECOND FORCING COMES FROM LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET SUPPORTING
A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH LATE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO...MOST OF THE FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING WITH EACH SEGMENT IS FOCUSED OFFSHORE INTO THE MARITIMES
AND MAINE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS FORCING SHOULD EXTEND INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE FIRST...AND POSSIBLY THE SECOND...OF
THE SEGMENTS. WE EXPECT RAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHEST POPS OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...LESSER VALUES NORTH
AND WEST.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE AND A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WINDY CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE OVER THE EASTERN/SOUTHEAST WATERS. STRONGEST LAND WINDS WILL BE
OVER THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS...DIMINISHING FARTHER WEST. HAVE
FEATURED 45 KNOTS FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS AND 20-25 KNOTS IN THE
INTERIOR.

A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS US IN PIECES SATURDAY AND LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS NOTED ABOVE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND END ON THE MA EAST COAST AFTER
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THIS STORM SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR ALL RAIN. AS THE WINDS SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN IN WHICH COULD CHANGE
THE LAST SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN A TRACE...WHERE IT
SNOWS AT ALL.

DRIER AIR SUNDAY WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. COLD ADVECTION WILL
PROMOTE MIXING THROUGH AT LEAST 850 MB. WINDS IN THIS LAYER WILL
BE 35 TO 40 KNOTS...SO EXPECT NORTHWEST GUSTS TO AT LEAST THE
LOWER END OF THIS RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM
MOVES FARTHER AWAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MONDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY AS
THIS HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. MIXING WILL AGAIN BRING INCREASED WIND
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE EXPECTED
AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE STRONGER SPEEDS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAKE ROOM
FOR A WARM FRONT TO SWING PAST. SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT THE BEST WARM FRONTAL LIFT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SUN THROUGH
THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON MIDWEEK WEATHER. AT LEAST ONE TROUGH IN THE
ZONAL FLOW WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE HINTING AT ONE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOWING A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH PASSING ON THURSDAY. THE FORECAST WILL HAVE
CLOUDS AND LOW-END CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG IN
NORMALLY PRONE AREAS.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ANY LEFTOVER MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY
FOG WILL IMPROVE BY 14Z.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
NIGHT TO MVFR-IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS ALONG
THE COAST. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE S COAST AND INTO SE MA
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOVING INTO THE REMAINDER MOST OF THE
REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...IFR CIGS AND MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN PERIODS OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR AND DRIER WEATHER MOVE IN FROM WEST
TO EAST EARLY SUNDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY GUSTING 35-45 KNOTS
ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND 25-35 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND NORTHWEST SUNDAY. GUSTS 40-
45 KNOTS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...WITH 25-35 KNOTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY...VFR. DAYTIME WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS
INLAND AND 35 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS...DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. WINDS
WILL VEER TO E-NE DURING THE DAY AND BEGIN TO PICK UP. GUSTS UP TO
20 KT REACH THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BY LATE IN THE DAY. SEAS
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.

TONIGHT...E-NE WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT. SMALL
CRAFTS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE WATERS...BUT NOT QUITE
THERE FOR BOSTON HARBOR AND MASS/IPSWICH BAYS. SEAS WILL ALSO
BUILD ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS DURING THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...STRONG POTENTIAL FOR HIGH END GALES...WITH LOW
POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE WINDS. ON THE OUTER WATERS...EXPECT
GUSTS TO AT LEAST 45 KNOTS.

EXPECT RAIN WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS. GALE FORCE GUSTS
EXPECTED ON MOST OF THE WATERS. RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF GALE FORCE
WINDS IN BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY. GALE WATCHES POSTED
FOR ALL WATERS. KEPT IT SIMPLE FOR NOW...BUT WILL DEFINITELY NEED
TO REFINE THE TIMING FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WITH LATER
FORECASTS.

SUNDAY...RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST WITH
GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS. EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH
BELOW GALE FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WIND SHIFT...ROUGH SEAS
WILL TRANSITION FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH DIMINISHING SEAS CLOSER TO
SHORE. GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

MONDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING GALE
FORCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING. SEAS
WILL LINGER AT 5-9 FEET...ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY...LOW END CHANCE THAT GALES MAY BE NEEDED
ON SOME OF THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW SATURDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH
SEAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
AND BEACH EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST...PARTICULARLY THE
NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET HARBOR DURING BOTH HIGH TIDE
CYCLES.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND WHEN AND HOW STRONG THE
WINDS/SEAS WILL GET. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE SHOWING TWO PULSES OF
WIND WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. THE FIRST ONE APPEARS TO BE
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE SECOND ONE SUNDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL
CONTINUES FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 20
FEET ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS. THE TREND OF
THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS/HIGHEST SEAS
WITH THE SATURDAY EVENING PULSE. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE
MODELS TREND...BUT STILL FEEL BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES ARE AT RISK
WITH A 1 TO 2 FOOT STORM SURGE.

AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN APPEAR TO BE THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD...SUCH AS SANDWICH...BARNSTABLE...DENNIS...BREWSTER AND
POSSIBLY EASTHAM. OTHER TYPICAL HOT SPOTS WILL BE SALISBURY AND
PLUM ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND
NANTUCKET HARBOR. AGAIN...THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AS WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>234-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BELK




000
FXUS61 KGYX 310732
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
332 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
ON MONDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TODAY EVEN AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZES NEAR THE CAROLINAS. WE WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS BUT
ANY RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH DESPITE A
CHILLY START.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LIGHT WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S EARLY ON...
WITH MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND LOWER 40S ALONG
THE COAST. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO FALL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS
TOP DOWN SATURATION OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD ONTO
THE NH AND MAINE COASTS BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE INFLUENCE FROM
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS MOVING UP THE EAST
COAST IS FELT. THE SECOND...MORE DYNAMIC LOW WILL PHASE WITH THE
FIRST LOW SOMETIME SUNDAY AND BRING MEASURABLE SNOW TO MUCH OF
EASTERN MAINE. MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH 6
PM WILL RESIDE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A
COUPLE INCHES. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AREAWIDE. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA. WE SHOULD HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COAST
AND PERHAPS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY DEEPENS
JUST OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL COOL OVERNIGHT AS
COLDER AIR IS DRAWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
APPEARS RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO WET SNOW IN
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AND THIS TREND WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH
TO THE COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES SUGGEST MORE OF A MIX
IN MIDCOAST AND INTERIOR CENTRAL MAINE. BIG DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
QPF AT THIS POINT SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL A BIG QUESTION BUT THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY AS INTENSE LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS INTO THE MARITIMES. EXPECT MIXED PRECIP IN SOUTHERN ZONES
TO GRADUALLY GO OVER TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR FLOODS IN BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. COULD SEE SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF WET
SNOW IN NORTHERN ZONES BEFORE PRECIP TAPERS OFF LATE IN THE DAY.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE WINDS WILL SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S NORTH AND
MID TO UPPER 20S SOUTH.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.
EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY BEFORE DROPPING OFF IN THE EVENING. HIGH WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. WEAK OVER-RUNNING
SETTING UP TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY TO NORTHERN
ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
VARIABLE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE SOUTH WITH A LITTLE MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS IN THE NORTH ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND INCREASING POPS IN NORTHWEST ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS. THE FRONT WILL
STALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL SPIN UP LOW PRESSURE ON THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT
SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND OR MIXED PRECIP ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
VFR CEILINGS.

LONG TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO INCREASE. HAVE ISSUED A
GALE WATCH FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS
SEAS INCREASE TO 8-12 FT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL SKIRT STORM FORCE SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

HANES/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310627
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
227 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE UP
THE COAST SATURDAY AND PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONE OR TWO COLD FRONTS MAY CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

210 AM UPDATE...
BAND OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS S NH/E MA AS
OF 06Z BASED ON LATEST IR SATELLITE TRENDS. TEMPS HAVE TENDED TO
LEVEL OFF WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED...THOUGH KCEF DOWN TO 29
DEGS WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR AND WINDS ARE CALM. CALM
WINDS INLAND BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO LIGHT N-NE...WITH A NE WIND
5-10 KT ON THE OUTER CAPE. NAM BUFKIT SHOWING 5-6KFT CLOUD DECK
WELL FROM KBOS-KBED-KCON.

NOTING SOME PATCHY FOG STARTING TO DEVELOP WHERE THERE IS LOW
DEWPT DEPRESSION...AND SHOULD SEE MORE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP IN
NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WIDE
RANGE OF TEMPS CONTINUE...FROM THE LOWER-MID 30S WELL INLAND TO
45-50 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE WITH N-NE WINDS.

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
TODAY...ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NORTH.
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE CAROLINA COAST...EXPECT IT TO FEEL A
BIT COOLER THAN TODAY. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW.

TONIGHT...WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
WITH THE UPCOMING STORM MOST OF THIS WILL AFFECT THE WEEKENDS
WEATHER SO WILL MOSTLY DISCUSS IT IN THE LONG TERM SECTION. SHOULD
MOSTLY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...RAIN
AND/OR SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MOVE ONTO THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO
SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...
DEEP AMPLITUDE TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE IN
BETWEEN. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH GENERATES A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW WITH TWO JET STREAMS...A NORTHERN STREAM ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER AND A SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING WITH THE SHORT
WAVE. THE PATTERN SHIFTS EAST DURING THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE PATTERN THEN TRANSFORMS TO A MORE
ZONAL FLOW. REMAINS OF THE PACIFIC COAST TROUGH MOVE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND MIDWEEK.

COLDER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH THE WEEKEND TROUGH. THESE BUILD TO
NORMAL OR A LITTLE MILDER THAN NORMAL BY MIDWEEK. THIS POINTS TO A
COLDER THAN NORMAL WEEKEND TRENDING TO NORMAL TEMPS BY MIDWEEK.

THE GFS...WHILE SERVICEABLE...IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER. FOR THE GRIDS
WE WILL USE A BLEND OF MODEL DATA INCLUDING HPC AND /WHERE POSSIBLE/
THE 12Z ECMWF.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...

COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED FOR SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY. SUPPORT COMES FROM TWO SETS OF FORCING
MECHANISMS...SUGGESTING A TWO-PART EVENT. BUT FINE-TUNING THE TIMING
OF THESE PARTS IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT. INITIAL FORCING COMES FROM
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF NORTHERN STREAM JET SATURDAY MORNING.
SECOND FORCING COMES FROM LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET SUPPORTING
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH LATE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO...MOST OF THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
WITH EACH SEGMENT IS FOCUSED ON THE MARITIMES AND MAINE. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS FORCING SHOULD EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH THE FIRST AND POSSIBLY THE SECOND OF THE SEGMENTS. WE
EXPECT RAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...LESSER VALUES NORTH AND WEST.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE AND A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WINDY CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
OVER THE EASTERN/SOUTHEAST WATERS. STRONGEST LAND WINDS WILL BE OVER
THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS...DIMINISHING FARTHER WEST. HAVE FEATURED
45 KNOTS FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS AND 20-25 KNOTS IN THE INTERIOR.

THE COASTAL STORM WILL PASS US IN PIECES SATURDAY AND LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS NOTED ABOVE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH WEST TO
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND END ON THE MASS EAST COAST AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE STORM SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
RAIN.  AS THE WINDS SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN IN WHICH COULD CHANGE THE LAST
SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A
TRACE. SOME HIGHLANDS SUCH AS IN THE MONADNOCK COULD PICK UP A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION AT STORM/S END.

DRIER AIR SUNDAY WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. COLD ADVECTION WILL
PROMOTE MIXING THROUGH AT LEAST 850 MB. WINDS IN THIS LAYER WILL BE
35 TO 40 KNOTS...SO EXPECT NORTHWEST GUSTS TO AT LEAST THE LOWER END
OF THIS RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM MOVES
FARTHER AWAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MONDAY
SHOULD BE SUNNY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. MIXING WILL AGAIN
BRING INCREASED WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THE
MIXED LAYER ARE EXPECTED AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
LITTLE STRONGER SPEEDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAKE ROOM FOR A WARM
FRONT TO SWING PAST. SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS...BUT THE BEST WARM FRONTAL LIFT WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST SO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SUN THROUGH THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... LOW CONFIDENCE ON MIDWEEK WEATHER.  AT LEAST
ONE TROUGH IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME. GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT ONE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
SHOWING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH PASSING ON THURSDAY.  THE FORECAST
WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND LOW-END CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG IN
NORMALLY PRONE AREAS.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ANY LEFTOVER MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY
FOG WILL IMPROVE BY 14Z.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
NIGHT TO MVFR/IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. RAIN/SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS WE NEAR
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...IFR CIGS AND MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN PERIODS OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR AND DRIER WEATHER MOVE IN FROM WEST
TO EAST EARLY SUNDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY GUSTING 30-40 KNOTS
ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND 25-30 KNOTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS 40-
45 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND 30-35 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

MONDAY...VFR. DAYTIME WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS
INLAND AND 35 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS...DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES TODAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE
NORTHEAST THEN EAST DURING THE DAY. THESE EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE
CAROLINAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE
WATERS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...STRONG POTENTIAL FOR HIGH END GALES ON THE OUTER
WATERS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. LOW POTENTIAL OF STORM FORCE WINDS
ON THE OUTER WATERS. RAIN WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS. GALE
FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED ON MOST WATERS.WAVEWATCH MODEL FORECASTS OF
SEA HEIGHTS ARE LOWER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE HAVE BUMPED
SEAS UP 2-3 FEET WITH 15 FOOT SEAS DEVELOPING EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT CONTINUES TO ADDRESS
THIS CONCERN.

SUNDAY...RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS 40-45 KNOTS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WIND SHIFT...THE ROUGH SEAS WILL
MIGRATE FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH DIMINISHING SEAS CLOSER TO SHORE.
GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

MONDAY... GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING. SEAS WILL
LINGER AT 5-9 FEET ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS LIKELY...LOW-END CHANCE THAT GALES MAY BE NEEDED ON SOME
OF THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW SATURDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH
SEAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
BEACH EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST...PARTICULARLY THE NORTH
SIDE OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET HARBOR DURING BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND WHEN AND HOW STRONG THE
WINDS/SEAS WILL GET.  THE MODELS SEEM TO BE SHOWING TWO PULSES OF
WIND WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE.  THE FIRST ONE APPEARS TO BE
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE SECOND ONE SUNDAY MORNING.  THE POTENTIAL
CONTINUES FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FEET
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.  THE TREND OF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS/HIGHEST SEAS WITH THE
SATURDAY EVENING PULSE.  WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE MODELS
TREND...BUT STILL FEEL BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES ARE AT RISK WITH A 1 TO
2 FOOT STORM SURGE.

AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN APPEAR TO BE THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD...SUCH AS SANDWICH...BARNSTABLE...DENNIS...BREWSTER AND POSSIBLY
EASTHAM. OTHER TYPICAL HOT SPOTS WILL BE SALISBURY AND PLUM
ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET
HARBOR. AGAIN...THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AS
WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>234-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG/EVT
MARINE...WTB/RLG/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310300
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE UP
THE COAST SATURDAY AND PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONE OR TWO COLD FRONTS MAY CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
LIGHT PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES AS HIGH PRES REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION AT 02Z. WINDS ARE GENERALLY CALM...THOUGH HIGHER TERRAIN
HAS A BIT MORE WINDS. NOTING NW WIND AT 8-10 KT AT KORH AND NNW
WIND AT 8 KT AT KMQE...BOTH ELEVATED LOCATIONS. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
BACK TO THE MID-UPPER 30S AT THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS THANKS
TO RADIATIONAL COOLING...DOWN TO 36 AT KORE AND 37 AT KTAN.

SKIES WERE BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AT MOST LOCATIONS AS NOTED ON
LATEST IR SATELLITE TRENDS...THOUGH AREA OF CLOUDS CONTINUES
ACROSS SE MA AS WELL AS ACROSS S NH/NW MA.

WHERE TEMPS WERE FALLING BACK CLOSE TO DEWPTS...HAVE ADDED MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE NORMALLY PRONE
AREAS ACROSS E INTERIOR MA AS WELL AS THE CT VALLEY INTO NE CT AND
EVEN ON MARTHAS VINEYARD WHERE TEMPS HAVE ALSO FALLEN BELOW 40
WITH CALM WINDS.

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT AND WORK CHANGES
MENTIONED ABOVE INTO NEAR TERM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
COMPLETELY RADIATING. ANYWHERE THE WINDS DO DROP OFF TO CALM...
THE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES FAIRLY QUICKLY.
OVERALL...EXPECT LOWS IN THE 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NORTH.
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE CAROLINA COAST...EXPECT IT TO FEEL A
BIT COOLER THAN TODAY.  OTHERWISE...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WITH THE UPCOMING STORM MOST OF THIS WILL AFFECT THE
WEEKENDS WEATHER SO WILL MOSTLY DISCUSS IT IN THE LONG TERM SECTION.
SHOULD MOSTLY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...RAIN
AND/OR SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MOVE ONTO THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO
SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

DEEP AMPLITUDE TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE IN
BETWEEN. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH GENERATES A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW WITH TWO JET STREAMS...A NORTHERN STREAM ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND A SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING WITH THE SHORT WAVE.
THE PATTERN SHIFTS EAST DURING THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER
NEW ENGLAND. THE PATTERN THEN TRANSFORMS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW.
REMAINS OF THE PACIFIC COAST TROUGH MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MIDWEEK.

COLDER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH THE WEEKEND TROUGH. THESE BUILD TO
NORMAL OR A LITTLE MILDER THAN NORMAL BY MIDWEEK. THIS POINTS TO A
COLDER THAN NORMAL WEEKEND TRENDING TO NORMAL TEMPS BY MIDWEEK.

THE GFS...WHILE SERVICEABLE...IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER. FOR THE GRIDS
WE WILL USE A BLEND OF MODEL DATA INCLUDING HPC AND /WHERE POSSIBLE/
THE 12Z ECMWF.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...

COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED FOR SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY. SUPPORT COMES FROM TWO SETS OF FORCING
MECHANISMS...SUGGESTING A TWO-PART EVENT. BUT FINE-TUNING THE TIMING
OF THESE PARTS IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT. INITIAL FORCING COMES FROM
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF NORTHERN STREAM JET SATURDAY MORNING.
SECOND FORCING COMES FROM LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET SUPPORTING
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH LATE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO...MOST OF THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
WITH EACH SEGMENT IS FOCUSED ON THE MARITIMES AND MAINE. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS FORCING SHOULD EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH THE FIRST AND POSSIBLY THE SECOND OF THE SEGMENTS. WE
EXPECT RAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...LESSER VALUES NORTH AND WEST.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE AND A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WINDY CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
OVER THE EASTERN/SOUTHEAST WATERS. STRONGEST LAND WINDS WILL BE OVER
THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS...DIMINISHING FARTHER WEST. HAVE FEATURED
45 KNOTS FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS AND 20-25 KNOTS IN THE INTERIOR.

THE COASTAL STORM WILL PASS US IN PIECES SATURDAY AND LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS NOTED ABOVE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH WEST TO
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND END ON THE MASS EAST COAST AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE STORM SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
RAIN.  AS THE WINDS SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN IN WHICH COULD CHANGE THE LAST
SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A
TRACE. SOME HIGHLANDS SUCH AS IN THE MONADNOCK COULD PICK UP A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION AT STORM/S END.

DRIER AIR SUNDAY WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. COLD ADVECTION WILL
PROMOTE MIXING THROUGH AT LEAST 850 MB. WINDS IN THIS LAYER WILL BE
35 TO 40 KNOTS...SO EXPECT NORTHWEST GUSTS TO AT LEAST THE LOWER END
OF THIS RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM MOVES
FARTHER AWAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MONDAY
SHOULD BE SUNNY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. MIXING WILL AGAIN
BRING INCREASED WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THE
MIXED LAYER ARE EXPECTED AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
LITTLE STRONGER SPEEDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAKE ROOM FOR A WARM
FRONT TO SWING PAST. SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS...BUT THE BEST WARM FRONTAL LIFT WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST SO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SUN THROUGH THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... LOW CONFIDENCE ON MIDWEEK WEATHER.  AT LEAST
ONE TROUGH IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME. GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT ONE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
SHOWING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH PASSING ON THURSDAY.  THE FORECAST
WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND LOW-END CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE NIGHT TO MVFR/IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  RAIN/SHOWERS EXPECTED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS WE NEAR
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...IFR CIGS AND MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN PERIODS OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR AND DRIER WEATHER MOVE IN FROM WEST
TO EAST EARLY SUNDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY GUSTING 30-40 KNOTS
ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND 25-30 KNOTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS 40-
45 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND 30-35 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

MONDAY...VFR. DAYTIME WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS
INLAND AND 35 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS...DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST DURING FRIDAY. THESE
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE CAROLINAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE WATERS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF
FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...STRONG POTENTIAL FOR HIGH END GALES ON THE OUTER
WATERS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. LOW POTENTIAL OF STORM FORCE WINDS
ON THE OUTER WATERS. RAIN WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS. GALE
FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED ON MOST WATERS.WAVEWATCH MODEL FORECASTS OF
SEA HEIGHTS ARE LOWER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE HAVE BUMPED
SEAS UP 2-3 FEET WITH 15 FOOT SEAS DEVELOPING EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT CONTINUES TO ADDRESS
THIS CONCERN.

SUNDAY...RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS 40-45 KNOTS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WIND SHIFT...THE ROUGH SEAS WILL
MIGRATE FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH DIMINISHING SEAS CLOSER TO SHORE.
GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

MONDAY... GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING. SEAS WILL
LINGER AT 5-9 FEET ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS LIKELY...LOW-END CHANCE THAT GALES MAY BE NEEDED ON SOME
OF THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW SATURDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH
SEAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
BEACH EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST...PARTICULARLY THE NORTH
SIDE OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET HARBOR DURING BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND WHEN AND HOW STRONG THE
WINDS/SEAS WILL GET.  THE MODELS SEEM TO BE SHOWING TWO PULSES OF
WIND WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE.  THE FIRST ONE APPEARS TO BE
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE SECOND ONE SUNDAY MORNING.  THE POTENTIAL
CONTINUES FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FEET
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.  THE TREND OF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS/HIGHEST SEAS WITH THE
SATURDAY EVENING PULSE.  WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE MODELS
TREND...BUT STILL FEEL BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES ARE AT RISK WITH A 1 TO
2 FOOT STORM SURGE.

AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN APPEAR TO BE THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD...SUCH AS SANDWICH...BARNSTABLE...DENNIS...BREWSTER AND POSSIBLY
EASTHAM. OTHER TYPICAL HOT SPOTS WILL BE SALISBURY AND PLUM
ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET
HARBOR. AGAIN...THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AS
WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>234-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KGYX 310109
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
909 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFTS TO
THE EAST ON FRIDAY. A LARGE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL
PRODUCE A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION SATURDAY...WHICH COULD CHANGE TO SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT IN SOME AREAS AND ACCUMULATE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
---900PM UPDATE---
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD SLOW DOWN
SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT.

---640PM UPDATE---
RATHER QUIET NIGHT IN STORE FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WEAK
PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
INTERMITTANT CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST BY ONE OR TWO
DEGREES. WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST THEM FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../
3 PM...UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON ANS WILL START TO WANE THIS EVENING AS SFC HIGH
BUILDS IN AND NW FLOW DROPS OFF...BUT UNLIKELY CLOUDS WILL NOT
DISAPPEAR COMPLETELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS...AS FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS A LITTLE UNSETTLED. SO LOOK FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR FROM THE FOOTHILLS TO THE COAST AND PARTLY CLOUDY LATE IN
THE MTNS. MIND DROP INTO THE 30 TO 40 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH SHIFTS NE ON FRI ANS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR OUR FLOW TO SHIFT NE WHICH WILL
KEEP MAXES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S MOSTLY. THE DAY WILL START PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY...BUT LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM BOTH THE S AND THE WEST AS TWO SFC LOWS
APPROACH...ONE FORM THE W AND ONE FORM THE S. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS...IT WILL REMAIN DRY TROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

COULD SEE SOME SHRA/-RA/DZ MOVE IN FROM THE COASTAL LOW LATE FRI
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE COAST AND SRN NH. MINS SHOULD OCCUR
AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS RISING BEFORE DAYBREAK AND LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S N TO LOW 40S S. ANY SIGNIF PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE EVOLUTION OF A
STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND
INTO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY. THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE TRICKY AS THERE REMAINS AT LEAST TWO IF NOT
THREE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITH SHORT WAVELENGTHS THAT ROUND
THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS IS ALLOWING SHIFTS IN THE MODELS FROM RUN TO
RUN IN THE QPF FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA DEPENDING ON WHICH SHORT
WAVE DOMINATES. AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A SLUG OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
AREA...MAINLY THE COASTAL PLAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH LIKELY/CAT POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES DURING THIS TIME.
THEREAFTER...THE REST OF THE ENERGY SHOULD MISS US TO THE EAST
RESULTING IN A DRY SCENARIO AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AND CHANGEABILITY WITH
THIS SCENARIO GIVEN THE COMPLICATED SHORT WAVE SETUP.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SAT AND
SAT NIGHT GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD BE A
LITTLE TOO WARM FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...A CHANGE TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE
FOR A FEW HOURS TOWARD THE END. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST ANY
PRECIPITATION BAND MAKES IT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

IN ANY CASE...THE WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN ISSUE LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS AND DEPARTS. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY.

THEREAFTER...QUIETER AND WARMER WEATHER IS LIKELY. A COLD FRONT
MAY BRING CHANCY RAIN END OF WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR EXPECTED THRU EARLY SAT MORNING. COULD SEE
COASTAL TERMINALS DROP TO IFR BEFORE DAYBREAK SAT IN LOW
CLOUDS/-RA/DZ.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR LATE SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH LIKELY LATER SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU FRI EVE. NE
WINDS START TO PICK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT AM...AND COULD GET TO
SCA LVLS BY SUNRISE SAT.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN STORM TRACK.
CURRENTLY THE STORM PASSES OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. HOWEVER
GALES APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB
TO 8-15 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

POHL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 302257
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
657 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE UP
THE COAST SATURDAY AND PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONE OR TWO COLD FRONT MAY CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE REGION...HIGHER PRESSURES TO OUR WEST. PATCHY CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION BUT THESE ARE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE. NO CHANGES IN
LOGIC FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST. SHOULD BE A FAIR WEATHER NIGHT.
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST GRIDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TONIGHTS WEATHER WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
COMPLETELY RADIATING.  ANYWHERE THE WINDS DO CALM THE TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES FAIRLY QUICKLY.  OVERALL...EXPECT LOWS IN
THE 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NORTH.
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE CAROLINA COAST...EXPECT IT TO FEEL A
BIT COOLER THAN TODAY.  OTHERWISE...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WITH THE UPCOMING STORM MOST OF THIS WILL AFFECT THE
WEEKENDS WEATHER SO WILL MOSTLY DISCUSS IT IN THE LONG TERM SECTION.
SHOULD MOSTLY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...RAIN
AND/OR SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MOVE ONTO THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO
SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

DEEP AMPLITUDE TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE IN
BETWEEN. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH GENERATES A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW WITH TWO JET STREAMS...A NORTHERN STREAM ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND A SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING WITH THE SHORT WAVE.
THE PATTERN SHIFTS EAST DURING THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER
NEW ENGLAND. THE PATTERN THEN TRANSFORMS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW.
REMAINS OF THE PACIFIC COAST TROUGH MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MIDWEEK.

COLDER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH THE WEEKEND TROUGH. THESE BUILD TO
NORMAL OR A LITTLE MILDER THAN NORMAL BY MIDWEEK. THIS POINTS TO A
COLDER THAN NORMAL WEEKEND TRENDING TO NORMAL TEMPS BY MIDWEEK.

THE GFS...WHILE SERVICEABLE...IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER. FOR THE GRIDS
WE WILL USE A BLEND OF MODEL DATA INCLUDING HPC AND /WHERE POSSIBLE/
THE 12Z ECMWF.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...

COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED FOR SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY. SUPPORT COMES FROM TWO SETS OF FORCING
MECHANISMS...SUGGESTING A TWO-PART EVENT. BUT FINE-TUNING THE TIMING
OF THESE PARTS IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT. INITIAL FORCING COMES FROM
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF NORTHERN STREAM JET SATURDAY MORNING.
SECOND FORCING COMES FROM LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET SUPPORTING
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH LATE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO...MOST OF THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
WITH EACH SEGMENT IS FOCUSSED ON THE MARITIMES AND MAINE. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS FORCING SHOULD EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE FIRST AND POSSIBLY THE SECOND OF THE SEGMENTS.  WE EXPECT
RAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS...LESSER VALUES NORTH AND WEST.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE AND A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WINDY CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
OVER THE EASTERN/SOUTHEAST WATERS. STRONGEST LAND WINDS WILL BE OVER
THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS...DIMINISHING FARTHER WEST. HAVE FEATURED
45 KNOTS FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS AND 20-25 KNOTS IN THE INTERIOR.

THE COASTAL STORM WILL PASS US IN PIECES SATURDAY AND LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS NOTED ABOVE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH WEST TO
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND END ON THE MASS EAST COAST AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE STORM SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
RAIN.  AS THE WINDS SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN IN WHICH COULD CHANGE THE LAST
SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A
TRACE. SOME HIGHLANDS SUCH AS IN THE MONADNOCK COULD PICK UP A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION AT STORM/S END.

DRIER AIR SUNDAY WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. COLD ADVECTION WILL
PROMOTE MIXING THROUGH AT LEAST 850 MB. WINDS IN THIS LAYER WILL BE
35 TO 40 KNOTS...SO EXPECT NORTHWEST GUSTS TO AT LEAST THE LOWER END
OF THIS RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM MOVES
FARTHER AWAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MONDAY
SHOULD BE SUNNY AS THE HIGH  MOVES OVERHEAD. MXING WILL AGAIN BRING
INCREASED WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER
ARE EXPECTED AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE STRONGER
SPEEDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAKE ROOM FOR A WARM
FRONT TO SWING PAST. SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS...BUT THE BEST WARM FRONTAL LIFT WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST SO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SUN THROUGH THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... LOW CONFIDENCE ON MIDWEEK WEATHER.  AT LEAST
ONE TROUGH IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME. GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT ONE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
SHOWING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH PASSING ON THURSDAY.  THE FORECAST
WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND LOW-END CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE NIGHT TO MVFR/IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  RAIN/SHOWERS EXPECTED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS WE NEAR
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...IFR CIGS AND MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN PERIODS OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR AND DRIER WEATHER MOVE IN FROM WEST
TO EAST EARLY SUNDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY GUSTING 30-40 KNOTS
ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND 25-30 KNOTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS 40-
45 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND 30-35 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

MONDAY...VFR. DAYTIME WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS
INLAND AND 35 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS...DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS
AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA CRITERIA.  WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST FRIDAY.  THESE EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS
FROM THE CAROLINAS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
OF THE WATERS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...STRONG POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-END GALES ON THE OUTER
WATERS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. LOW POTENTIAL OF STORM FORCE WINDS
ON THE OUTER WATERS. RAIN WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS. GALE
FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED ON MOST WATERS.WAVEWATCH MODEL FORECASTS OF
SEA HEIGHTS ARE LOWER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE HAVE BUMPED
SEAS UP 2-3 FEET WITH 15 FOOT SEAS DEVELOPING EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT CONTINUES TO ADDRESS
THIS CONCERN.

SUNDAY...RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS 40-45 KNOTS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WIND SHIFT...THE ROUGH SEAS WILL
MIGRATE FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH DIMINISHING SEAS CLOSER TO SHORE.
GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

MONDAY... GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING. SEAS WILL
LINGER AT 5-9 FEET ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS LIKELY...LOW-END CHANCE THAT GALES MAY BE NEEDED ON SOME
OF THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW SATURDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH
SEAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
BEACH EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST...PARTICULARLY THE NORTH
SIDE OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET HARBOR DURING BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND WHEN AND HOW STRONG THE
WINDS/SEAS WILL GET.  THE MODELS SEEM TO BE SHOWING TWO PULSES OF
WIND WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE.  THE FIRST ONE APPEARS TO BE
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE SECOND ONE SUNDAY MORNING.  THE POTENTIAL
CONTINUES FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FEET
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.  THE TREND OF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS/HIGHEST SEAS WITH THE
SATURDAY EVENING PULSE.  WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE MODELS
TREND...BUT STILL FEEL BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES ARE AT RISK WITH A 1 TO
2 FOOT STORM SURGE.

AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN APPEAR TO BE THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD...SUCH AS SANDWICH...BARNSTABLE...DENNIS...BREWSTER AND POSSIBLY
EASTHAM. OTHER TYPICAL HOT SPOTS WILL BE SALISBURY AND PLUM
ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET
HARBOR. AGAIN...THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AS
WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>234-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 302240
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
640 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFTS TO
THE EAST ON FRIDAY. A LARGE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL
PRODUCE A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION SATURDAY...WHICH COULD CHANGE TO SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT IN SOME AREAS AND ACCUMULATE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6AM FRIDAY/...
---640PM UPDATE---
RATHER QUIET NIGHT IN STORE FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WEAK
PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
INTERMITTANT CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST BY ONE OR TWO
DEGREES. WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST THEM FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../
3 PM...UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON ANS WILL START TO WANE THIS EVENING AS SFC HIGH
BUILDS IN AND NW FLOW DROPS OFF...BUT UNLIKELY CLOUDS WILL NOT
DISAPPEAR COMPLETELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS...AS FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS A LITTLE UNSETTLED. SO LOOK FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR FROM THE FOOTHILLS TO THE COAST AND PARTLY CLOUDY LATE IN
THE MTNS. MIND DROP INTO THE 30 TO 40 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH SHIFTS NE ON FRI ANS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR OUR FLOW TO SHIFT NE WHICH WILL
KEEP MAXES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S MOSTLY. THE DAY WILL START PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY...BUT LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM BOTH THE S AND THE WEST AS TWO SFC LOWS
APPROACH...ONE FORM THE W AND ONE FORM THE S. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS...IT WILL REMAIN DRY TROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

COULD SEE SOME SHRA/-RA/DZ MOVE IN FROM THE COASTAL LOW LATE FRI
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE COAST AND SRN NH. MINS SHOULD OCCUR
AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS RISING BEFORE DAYBREAK AND LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S N TO LOW 40S S. ANY SIGNIF PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE EVOLUTION OF A
STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND
INTO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY. THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE TRICKY AS THERE REMAINS AT LEAST TWO IF NOT
THREE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITH SHORT WAVELENGTHS THAT ROUND
THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS IS ALLOWING SHIFTS IN THE MODELS FROM RUN TO
RUN IN THE QPF FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA DEPENDING ON WHICH SHORT
WAVE DOMINATES. AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A SLUG OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
AREA...MAINLY THE COASTAL PLAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH LIKELY/CAT POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES DURING THIS TIME.
THEREAFTER...THE REST OF THE ENERGY SHOULD MISS US TO THE EAST
RESULTING IN A DRY SCENARIO AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AND CHANGEABILITY WITH
THIS SCENARIO GIVEN THE COMPLICATED SHORT WAVE SETUP.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SAT AND
SAT NIGHT GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD BE A
LITTLE TOO WARM FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...A CHANGE TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE
FOR A FEW HOURS TOWARD THE END. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST ANY
PRECIPITATION BAND MAKES IT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

IN ANY CASE...THE WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN ISSUE LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS AND DEPARTS. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY.

THEREAFTER...QUIETER AND WARMER WEATHER IS LIKELY. A COLD FRONT
MAY BRING CHANCY RAIN END OF WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR EXPECTED THRU EARLY SAT MORNING. COULD SEE
COASTAL TERMINALS DROP TO IFR BEFORE DAYBREAK SAT IN LOW
CLOUDS/-RA/DZ.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR LATE SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH LIKELY LATER SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU FRI EVE. NE
WINDS START TO PICK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT AM...AND COULD GET TO
SCA LVLS BY SUNRISE SAT.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN STORM TRACK.
CURRENTLY THE STORM PASSES OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. HOWEVER
GALES APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB
TO 8-15 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

POHL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 302046
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
446 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE UP
THE COAST SATURDAY AND PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONE OR TWO COLD FRONT MAY CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TONIGHTS WEATHER WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
COMPLETELY RADIATING.  ANYWHERE THE WINDS DO CALM THE TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES FAIRLY QUICKLY.  OVERALL...EXPECT LOWS IN
THE 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NORTH.
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE CAROLINA COAST...EXPECT IT TO FEEL A
BIT COOLER THAN TODAY.  OTHERWISE...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WITH THE UPCOMING STORM MOST OF THIS WILL AFFECT THE
WEEKENDS WEATHER SO WILL MOSTLY DISCUSS IT IN THE LONG TERM SECTION.
SHOULD MOSTLY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...RAIN
AND/OR SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MOVE ONTO THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO
SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...

DEEP AMPLITUDE TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE IN
BETWEEN. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH GENERATES A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW WITH TWO JET STREAMS...A NORTHERN STREAM ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND A SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING WITH THE SHORT WAVE.
THE PATTERN SHIFTS EAST DURING THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER
NEW ENGLAND. THE PATTERN THEN TRANSFORMS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW.
REMAINS OF THE PACIFIC COAST TROUGH MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MIDWEEK.

COLDER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH THE WEEKEND TROUGH. THESE BUILD TO
NORMAL OR A LITTLE MILDER THAN NORMAL BY MIDWEEK. THIS POINTS TO A
COLDER THAN NORMAL WEEKEND TRENDING TO NORMAL TEMPS BY MIDWEEK.

THE GFS...WHILE SERVICEABLE...IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER. FOR THE GRIDS
WE WILL USE A BLEND OF MODEL DATA INCLUDING HPC AND /WHERE POSSIBLE/
THE 12Z ECMWF.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...

COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED FOR SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY. SUPPORT COMES FROM TWO SETS OF FORCING
MECHANISMS...SUGGESTING A TWO-PART EVENT. BUT FINE-TUNING THE TIMING
OF THESE PARTS IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT. INITIAL FORCING COMES FROM
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF NORTHERN STREAM JET SATURDAY MORNING.
SECOND FORCING COMES FROM LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET SUPPORTING
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH LATE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO...MOST OF THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
WITH EACH SEGMENT IS FOCUSSED ON THE MARITIMES AND MAINE. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS FORCING SHOULD EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE FIRST AND POSSIBLY THE SECOND OF THE SEGMENTS.  WE EXPECT
RAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS...LESSER VALUES NORTH AND WEST.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE AND A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WINDY CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
OVER THE EASTERN/SOUTHEAST WATERS. STRONGEST LAND WINDS WILL BE OVER
THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS...DIMINISHING FARTHER WEST. HAVE FEATURED
45 KNOTS FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS AND 20-25 KNOTS IN THE INTERIOR.

THE COASTAL STORM WILL PASS US IN PIECES SATURDAY AND LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS NOTED ABOVE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH WEST TO
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND END ON THE MASS EAST COAST AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE STORM SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
RAIN.  AS THE WINDS SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN IN WHICH COULD CHANGE THE LAST
SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A
TRACE. SOME HIGHLANDS SUCH AS IN THE MONADNOCK COULD PICK UP A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION AT STORM/S END.

DRIER AIR SUNDAY WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. COLD ADVECTION WILL
PROMOTE MIXING THROUGH AT LEAST 850 MB. WINDS IN THIS LAYER WILL BE
35 TO 40 KNOTS...SO EXPECT NORTHWEST GUSTS TO AT LEAST THE LOWER END
OF THIS RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM MOVES
FARTHER AWAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MONDAY
SHOULD BE SUNNY AS THE HIGH  MOVES OVERHEAD. MXING WILL AGAIN BRING
INCREASED WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER
ARE EXPECTED AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE STRONGER
SPEEDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAKE ROOM FOR A WARM
FRONT TO SWING PAST. SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS...BUT THE BEST WARM FRONTAL LIFT WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST SO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SUN THROUGH THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... LOW CONFIDENCE ON MIDWEEK WEATHER.  AT LEAST
ONE TROUGH IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME. GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT ONE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
SHOWING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH PASSING ON THURSDAY.  THE FORECAST
WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND LOW-END CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

18Z TODAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE NIGHT TO MVFR/IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  RAIN/SHOWERS EXPECTED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS WE NEAR
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...IFR CIGS AND MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN PERIODS OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR AND DRIER WEATHER MOVE IN FROM WEST
TO EAST EARLY SUNDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY GUSTING 30-40 KNOTS
ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND 25-30 KNOTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS 40-
45 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND 30-35 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

MONDAY...VFR. DAYTIME WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS
INLAND AND 35 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS...DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS
AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA CRITERIA.  WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST FRIDAY.  THESE EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS
FROM THE CAROLINAS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
OF THE WATERS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...STRONG POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-END GALES ON THE OUTER
WATERS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. LOW POTENTIAL OF STORM FORCE WINDS
ON THE OUTER WATERS. RAIN WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS. GALE
FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED ON MOST WATERS.WAVEWATCH MODEL FORECASTS OF
SEA HEIGHTS ARE LOWER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE HAVE BUMPED
SEAS UP 2-3 FEET WITH 15 FOOT SEAS DEVELOPING EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT CONTINUES TO ADDRESS
THIS CONCERN.

SUNDAY...RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS 40-45 KNOTS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WIND SHIFT...THE ROUGH SEAS WILL
MIGRATE FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH DIMINISHING SEAS CLOSER TO SHORE.
GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

MONDAY... GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING. SEAS WILL
LINGER AT 5-9 FEET ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS LIKELY...LOW-END CHANCE THAT GALES MAY BE NEEDED ON SOME
OF THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW SATURDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH
SEAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
BEACH EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST...PARTICULARLY THE NORTH
SIDE OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET HARBOR DURING BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND WHEN AND HOW STRONG THE
WINDS/SEAS WILL GET.  THE MODELS SEEM TO BE SHOWING TWO PULSES OF
WIND WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE.  THE FIRST ONE APPEARS TO BE
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE SECOND ONE SUNDAY MORNING.  THE POTENTIAL
CONTINUES FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FEET
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.  THE TREND OF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS/HIGHEST SEAS WITH THE
SATURDAY EVENING PULSE.  WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE MODELS
TREND...BUT STILL FEEL BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES ARE AT RISK WITH A 1 TO
2 FOOT STORM SURGE.

AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN APPEAR TO BE THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD...SUCH AS SANDWICH...BARNSTABLE...DENNIS...BREWSTER AND POSSIBLY
EASTHAM. OTHER TYPICAL HOT SPOTS WILL BE SALISBURY AND PLUM
ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET
HARBOR. AGAIN...THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AS
WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>234-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301946
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
346 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFTS TO
THE EAST ON FRIDAY. A LARGE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL
PRODUCE A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION SATURDAY...WHICH COULD CHANGE TO SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT IN SOME AREAS AND ACCUMULATE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
3 PM...UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ANS WILL
START TO WANE THIS EVENING AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN AND NW FLOW DROPS
OFF...BUT UNLIKELY CLOUDS WILL NOT DISAPPEAR
COMPLETELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS...AS FLOW ALOFT REMAINS A
LITTLE UNSETTLED. SO LOOK FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FROM
THE FOOTHILLS TO THE COAST AND PARTLY CLOUDY LATE IN THE MTNS.
MIND DROP INTO THE 30 TO 40 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH SHIFTS NE ON FRI ANS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR OUR FLOW TO SHIFT NE WHICH WILL
KEEP MAXES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S MOSTLY. THE DAY WILL START PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY...BUT LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM BOTH THE S AND THE WEST AS TWO SFC LOWS
APPROACH...ONE FORM THE W AND ONE FORM THE S. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS...IT WILL REMAIN DRY TROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

COULD SEE SOME SHRA/-RA/DZ MOVE IN FROM THE COASTAL LOW LATE FRI
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE COAST AND SRN NH. MINS SHOULD OCCUR
AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS RISING BEFORE DAYBREAK AND LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S N TO LOW 40S S. ANY SIGNIF PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE EVOLUTION OF A
STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND
INTO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY. THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE TRICKY AS THERE REMAINS AT LEAST TWO IF NOT
THREE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITH SHORT WAVELENGTHS THAT ROUND
THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS IS ALLOWING SHIFTS IN THE MODELS FROM RUN TO
RUN IN THE QPF FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA DEPENDING ON WHICH SHORT
WAVE DOMINATES. AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A SLUG OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
AREA...MAINLY THE COASTAL PLAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH LIKELY/CAT POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES DURING THIS TIME.
THEREAFTER...THE REST OF THE ENERGY SHOULD MISS US TO THE EAST
RESULTING IN A DRY SCENARIO AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AND CHANGEABILITY WITH
THIS SCENARIO GIVEN THE COMPLICATED SHORT WAVE SETUP.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SAT AND
SAT NIGHT GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD BE A
LITTLE TOO WARM FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...A CHANGE TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE
FOR A FEW HOURS TOWARD THE END. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST ANY
PRECIPITATION BAND MAKES IT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

IN ANY CASE...THE WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN ISSUE LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS AND DEPARTS. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY.

THEREAFTER...QUIETER AND WARMER WEATHER IS LIKELY. A COLD FRONT
MAY BRING CHANCY RAIN END OF WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR EXPECTED THRU EARLY SAT MORNING. COULD SEE
COASTAL TERMINALS DROP TO IFR BEFORE DAYBREAK SAT IN LOW
CLOUDS/-RA/DZ.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR LATE SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH LIKELY LATER SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU FRI EVE. NE
WINDS START TO PICK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT AM...AND COULD GET TO
SCA LVLS BY SUNRISE SAT.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN STORM TRACK.
CURRENTLY THE STORM PASSES OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. HOWEVER
GALES APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB
TO 8-15 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...CEMPA/EKSTER
MARINE...CEMPA/EKSTER




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301935
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
335 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY DELIVER A
GLANCING BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
FOLLOWS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TONIGHTS WEATHER WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
COMPLETELY RADIATING.  ANYWHERE THE WINDS DO CALM THE TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES FAIRLY QUICKLY.  OVERALL...EXPECT LOWS IN
THE 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NORTH.
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE CAROLINA COAST...EXPECT IT TO FEEL A
BIT COOLER THAN TODAY.  OTHERWISE...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WITH THE UPCOMING STORM MOST OF THIS WILL AFFECT THE
WEEKENDS WEATHER SO WILL MOSTLY DISCUSS IT IN THE LONG TERM SECTION.
SHOULD MOSTLY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...RAIN
AND/OR SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MOVE ONTO THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO
SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* GLANCING BLOW MOST LIKELY SAT/EARLY SUNDAY...BUT GREATER IMPACT
  STILL POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT A LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...30/00Z GUIDANCE HAD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THEIR HANDLING OF A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM THIS
WEEKEND. THERE ARE A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT SUGGEST A CLOSER
TRACK TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT VERY
LIKELY. THE PREDOMINANT SIGNAL IS FOR A TRACK REMAINING SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO
SMOOTH OVER AS MANY MINOR DIFFERENCES AS POSSIBLE.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS MODERATE FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE BIGGEST CONCERN REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS
DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. THERE
ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN THIS STORM/S FORMATION.
INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR
EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO A SINGLE PRIMARY STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TIMING...A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES. MOST OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...WHICH
WOULD ALSO SUGGEST A RATHER SHARP WESTERN EDGE TO THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. MINOR WOBBLES IN THE TRACK...COULD HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WHERE THIS EDGE TO THE PRECIPITATION
ESTABLISHES ITSELF.

INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY. IN FACT...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF THIS TRACK SHIFTS WEST
AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY...DYNAMIC COOLING COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...BASED ON THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TRACK...ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY. REGARDLESS...MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HAVE EXITED OUR REGION BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS...
STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP. EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS MIXING INCREASES. ACROSS
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS STORM...WE
MAY SEE A PERIOD OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. WIND ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND
WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. GIVEN MANY TREES
STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE
AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE ENHANCED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED
WITH SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A
SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

18Z TODAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE NIGHT TO MVFR/IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  RAIN/SHOWERS EXPECTED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS WE NEAR
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO
BE MIXED AT TIMES WITH MVFR LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED. STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS
AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA CRITERIA.  WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST FRIDAY.  THESE EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS
FROM THE CAROLINAS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
OF THE WATERS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH TUESDAY...

***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
 INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
 MASSACHUSETTS***

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. INCREASING NE WINDS. GUSTS UP TO
30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH IMPACT MARINE
EVENT EXPECTED. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...HIGH CONFIDENCE GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS MOST WATERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
IN FACT...MODERATE RISK FOR A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS
WITH 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS. EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS AND
SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW SATURDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH
SEAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
BEACH EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST...PARTICULARLY THE NORTH
SIDE OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET HARBOR DURING BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND WHEN AND HOW STRONG THE
WINDS/SEAS WILL GET.  THE MODELS SEEM TO BE SHOWING TWO PULSES OF
WIND WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE.  THE FIRST ONE APPEARS TO BE
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE SECOND ONE SUNDAY MORNING.  THE POTENTIAL
CONTINUES FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FEET
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.  THE TREND OF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS/HIGHEST SEAS WITH THE
SATURDAY EVENING PULSE.  WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE MODELS
TREND...BUT STILL FEEL BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES ARE AT RISK WITH A 1 TO
2 FOOT STORM SURGE.

AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN APPEAR TO BE THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD...SUCH AS SANDWICH...BARNSTABLE...DENNIS...BREWSTER AND POSSIBLY
EASTHAM. OTHER TYPICAL HOT SPOTS WILL BE SALISBURY AND PLUM
ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET
HARBOR. AGAIN...THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AS
WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301920
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
320 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY DELIVER A
GLANCING BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
FOLLOWS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE SKY FORECAST BASED ON THE
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.  OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FOR TODAY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH PRES APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS H5 SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE
REGION...PUSHING OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY. H85 TEMPS DO FALL DURING THE
DAY...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE N.
TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR LATE OCTOBER...TOPPING OFF IN THE
50S. EXPECT LIGHT W-NW WINDS WITH A LIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
EXPECT THE WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE TO BUILD E ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. LIGHT N WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL VEER TO
NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME MORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS.

NOTING LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS A DIGGING H5
SHORT WAVE DIVES SE. SW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE...SO COULD
SEE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH THE COLDER AIR WORKING IN ALONG WITH A GENERAL
LIGHT WIND IN PLACE...EXPECT LOWS FALLING BACK TO THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...RANGING TO LOWER-MID 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR
S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.

FRIDAY...
MAJOR DIGGING H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WHICH SETS UP AN
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...AT
THE SURFACE...GENERAL LIGHT FLOW CONTINUES THOUGH E-NE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO FRESHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE S COAST. BIG
QUESTION AT THIS POINT...WHERE LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC
OR SE U.S. COAST FRI AFTERNOON.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NH/W MA...RANGING TO
THE LOWER-MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINS S OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME OCEAN INDUCED LIGHT SPRINKLES OR EVEN
SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE. DID NOT MENTION THIS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* GLANCING BLOW MOST LIKELY SAT/EARLY SUNDAY...BUT GREATER IMPACT
  STILL POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT A LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...30/00Z GUIDANCE HAD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THEIR HANDLING OF A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM THIS
WEEKEND. THERE ARE A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT SUGGEST A CLOSER
TRACK TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT VERY
LIKELY. THE PREDOMINANT SIGNAL IS FOR A TRACK REMAINING SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO
SMOOTH OVER AS MANY MINOR DIFFERENCES AS POSSIBLE.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS MODERATE FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE BIGGEST CONCERN REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS
DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. THERE
ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN THIS STORM/S FORMATION.
INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR
EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO A SINGLE PRIMARY STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TIMING...A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES. MOST OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...WHICH
WOULD ALSO SUGGEST A RATHER SHARP WESTERN EDGE TO THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. MINOR WOBBLES IN THE TRACK...COULD HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WHERE THIS EDGE TO THE PRECIPITATION
ESTABLISHES ITSELF.

INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY. IN FACT...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF THIS TRACK SHIFTS WEST
AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY...DYNAMIC COOLING COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...BASED ON THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TRACK...ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY. REGARDLESS...MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HAVE EXITED OUR REGION BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS...
STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP. EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS MIXING INCREASES. ACROSS
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS STORM...WE
MAY SEE A PERIOD OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. WIND ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND
WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. GIVEN MANY TREES
STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE
AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE ENHANCED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED
WITH SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A
SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY.

TODAY...VFR. SCT-BKN CLOUDS 4-5KFT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR-IFR ACROSS SW NH INTO NW MA LATE. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE DURING DAY...INCREASING
ALONG COAST TO 10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE IN DAY.
MAY SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP ALONG E COAST TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ALONG S COAST POSSIBLE LATE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START BUT ONSHORE FLOW
MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING. A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO
BE MIXED AT TIMES WITH MVFR LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED. STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS E
AND S OF CAPE COD THIS MORNING. EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

TONIGHT...LIGHT NE WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 3 FT.

FRIDAY...WINDS BECOME E-NE BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS SLOWLY INCREASE TO 3 FT ON SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH MONDAY...

***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
 INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
 MASSACHUSETTS***

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. INCREASING NE WINDS. GUSTS UP TO
30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH IMPACT MARINE
EVENT EXPECTED. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...HIGH CONFIDENCE GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS MOST WATERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
IN FACT...MODERATE RISK FOR A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS
WITH 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS. EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS AND
SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW SATURDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH
SEAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
BEACH EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST...PARTICULARLY THE NORTH
SIDE OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET HARBOR DURING BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND WHEN AND HOW STRONG THE
WINDS/SEAS WILL GET.  THE MODELS SEEM TO BE SHOWING TWO PULSES OF
WIND WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE.  THE FIRST ONE APPEARS TO BE
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE SECOND ONE SUNDAY MORNING.  THE POTENTIAL
CONTINUES FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FEET
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.  THE TREND OF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS/HIGHEST SEAS WITH THE
SATURDAY EVENING PULSE.  WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE MODELS
TREND...BUT STILL FEEL BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES ARE AT RISK WITH A 1 TO
2 FOOT STORM SURGE.

AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN APPEAR TO BE THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD...SUCH AS SANDWICH...BARNSTABLE...DENNIS...BREWSTER AND POSSIBLY
EASTHAM. OTHER TYPICAL HOT SPOTS WILL BE SALISBURY AND PLUM
ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET
HARBOR. AGAIN...THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AS
WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301546
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1146 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SOME
SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1145 AM...FORECAST UPDATED TO LINGER THE SPRINKLES A LITTLE LONGER AROUND
THE UPSLOPE AREAS...AND MODIFY MAXES A BIT...MAINLY IN THE MTNS
WHERE CURRENT OBS ARE NEAR FORECAST HIGHS. STARTING TO SEE BACK
EDGE OF THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS SHIFTING EAST...AND EXPECTING MORE
SUN ON THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

10 AM...SOME QUICK TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST TO COVER THE SWATH OF
MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA...AND A FEW SPRINKLES IN
THE MTNS...THIS MORNING...AS WEAK 500MB WAVE MOVES THRU. SHOULD
SEE MORE SUN THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS
OUTSIDE THE MTNS.

645 AM UPDATE: ONLY CHANGES WERE TO TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF EARLY
MORNING PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED ATTM.

PREV DISC:
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A NICE
DRY SLOT OF AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON WNW WINDS. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS
SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE S
AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AND INTO FRI. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH NO
PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMP
AND CLOUD FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND FRI. GENERALLY MODELS WERE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN
TROUGH LATE FRIDAY IN THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE EJECTING OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS STRONG SHORT WAVE FINALLY PHASES
WITH THE MAIN TROUGH SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY NEAR NEW ENGLAND AS
THE WHOLE THING BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.

AT THE SURFACE A COASTAL STORM DEEPENS RAPIDLY AND MOVES NORTH
AS WELL. THE GFS MSLP ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS IT EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK AS DO THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN.
HOWEVER...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. FARTHER EAST
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE MIDCOAST WILL HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR A
GLANCING BLOW. DECREASED THE QPF OVER THE REGION A BIT AS THE
STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN... HOWEVER
THE KENNEBEC VALLEY AND MIDCOAST REGIONS STILL SHOULD SEE 1-2" OF
SNOW. LOCATIONS IN BETWEEN WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. THE SNOW WILL MELT OFF QUICKLY AS HIGHS REACH THE 40S ON
SUNDAY.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM ARE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...BOTH
THE U AND THE V COMPONENTS AT 925MB AND 850MB. THIS WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN GALES OVER THE BAYS TO STRONG GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE
WINDS OVER THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOK ESPECIALLY CHILLY FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE COASTAL SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...PWATS TAKE A NOSEDIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO NEAR 0.10" OR VERY CLOSE TO THE KNOWN MINIMUM FOR THIS
STATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...HELPING RADIATIONAL COOLING OUT
TREMENDOUSLY. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
REASON.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SOME EARLY MORNING VLY FOG WILL ALLOW IFR CONDS INTO
THE MORNING OTRW MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR TODAY INTO FRI. BY LATE
FRI SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

LONG TERM...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ON SATURDAY BRINGING
CEILINGS DOWN BELOW VFR. MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE
INTO THE AREA AS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD NORTH. IFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SNOW. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUN THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU FRI.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONSECUTIVE
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN MOVING THE STORM OUT FARTHER. CURRENTLY THE
STORM PASSES OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. HOWEVER GALES APPEAR
LIKELY OVER THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO 8-12 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301405
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1005 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SOME
SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM...SOME QUICK TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST TO COVER THE SWATH OF
MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA...AND A FEW SPRINKLES IN
THE MTNS...THIS MORNING...AS WEAK 500MB WAVE MOVES THRU. SHOULD
SEE MORE SUN THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS
OUTSIDE THE MTNS.

645 AM UPDATE: ONLY CHANGES WERE TO TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF EARLY
MORNING PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED ATTM.

PREV DISC:
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A NICE
DRY SLOT OF AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON WNW WINDS. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS
SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE S
AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AND INTO FRI. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH NO
PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMP
AND CLOUD FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND FRI. GENERALLY MODELS WERE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN
TROUGH LATE FRIDAY IN THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE EJECTING OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS STRONG SHORT WAVE FINALLY PHASES
WITH THE MAIN TROUGH SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY NEAR NEW ENGLAND AS
THE WHOLE THING BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.

AT THE SURFACE A COASTAL STORM DEEPENS RAPIDLY AND MOVES NORTH
AS WELL. THE GFS MSLP ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS IT EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK AS DO THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN.
HOWEVER...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. FARTHER EAST
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE MIDCOAST WILL HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR A
GLANCING BLOW. DECREASED THE QPF OVER THE REGION A BIT AS THE
STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN... HOWEVER
THE KENNEBEC VALLEY AND MIDCOAST REGIONS STILL SHOULD SEE 1-2" OF
SNOW. LOCATIONS IN BETWEEN WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. THE SNOW WILL MELT OFF QUICKLY AS HIGHS REACH THE 40S ON
SUNDAY.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM ARE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...BOTH
THE U AND THE V COMPONENTS AT 925MB AND 850MB. THIS WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN GALES OVER THE BAYS TO STRONG GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE
WINDS OVER THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOK ESPECIALLY CHILLY FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE COASTAL SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...PWATS TAKE A NOSEDIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO NEAR 0.10" OR VERY CLOSE TO THE KNOWN MINIMUM FOR THIS
STATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...HELPING RADIATIONAL COOLING OUT
TREMENDOUSLY. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
REASON.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SOME EARLY MORNING VLY FOG WILL ALLOW IFR CONDS INTO
THE MORNING OTRW MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR TODAY INTO FRI. BY LATE
FRI SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

LONG TERM...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ON SATURDAY BRINGING
CEILINGS DOWN BELOW VFR. MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE
INTO THE AREA AS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD NORTH. IFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SNOW. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUN THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU FRI.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONSECUTIVE
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN MOVING THE STORM OUT FARTHER. CURRENTLY THE
STORM PASSES OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. HOWEVER GALES APPEAR
LIKELY OVER THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO 8-12 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301355
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
955 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY DELIVER A
GLANCING BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
FOLLOWS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE SKY FORECAST BASED ON THE
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.  OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FOR TODAY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH PRES APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS H5 SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE
REGION...PUSHING OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY. H85 TEMPS DO FALL DURING THE
DAY...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE N.
TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR LATE OCTOBER...TOPPING OFF IN THE
50S. EXPECT LIGHT W-NW WINDS WITH A LIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
EXPECT THE WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE TO BUILD E ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. LIGHT N WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL VEER TO
NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME MORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS.

NOTING LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS A DIGGING H5
SHORT WAVE DIVES SE. SW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE...SO COULD
SEE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH THE COLDER AIR WORKING IN ALONG WITH A GENERAL
LIGHT WIND IN PLACE...EXPECT LOWS FALLING BACK TO THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...RANGING TO LOWER-MID 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR
S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.

FRIDAY...
MAJOR DIGGING H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WHICH SETS UP AN
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...AT
THE SURFACE...GENERAL LIGHT FLOW CONTINUES THOUGH E-NE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO FRESHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE S COAST. BIG
QUESTION AT THIS POINT...WHERE LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC
OR SE U.S. COAST FRI AFTERNOON.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NH/W MA...RANGING TO
THE LOWER-MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINS S OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME OCEAN INDUCED LIGHT SPRINKLES OR EVEN
SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE. DID NOT MENTION THIS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* GLANCING BLOW MOST LIKELY SAT/EARLY SUNDAY...BUT GREATER IMPACT
  STILL POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT A LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...30/00Z GUIDANCE HAD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THEIR HANDLING OF A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM THIS
WEEKEND. THERE ARE A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT SUGGEST A CLOSER
TRACK TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT VERY
LIKELY. THE PREDOMINANT SIGNAL IS FOR A TRACK REMAINING SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO
SMOOTH OVER AS MANY MINOR DIFFERENCES AS POSSIBLE.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS MODERATE FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE BIGGEST CONCERN REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS
DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. THERE
ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN THIS STORM/S FORMATION.
INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR
EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO A SINGLE PRIMARY STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TIMING...A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES. MOST OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...WHICH
WOULD ALSO SUGGEST A RATHER SHARP WESTERN EDGE TO THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. MINOR WOBBLES IN THE TRACK...COULD HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WHERE THIS EDGE TO THE PRECIPITATION
ESTABLISHES ITSELF.

INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY. IN FACT...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF THIS TRACK SHIFTS WEST
AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY...DYNAMIC COOLING COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...BASED ON THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TRACK...ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY. REGARDLESS...MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HAVE EXITED OUR REGION BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS...
STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP. EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS MIXING INCREASES. ACROSS
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS STORM...WE
MAY SEE A PERIOD OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. WIND ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND
WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. GIVEN MANY TREES
STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE
AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE ENHANCED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED
WITH SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A
SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY.

TODAY...VFR. SCT-BKN CLOUDS 4-5KFT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR-IFR ACROSS SW NH INTO NW MA LATE. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE DURING DAY...INCREASING
ALONG COAST TO 10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE IN DAY.
MAY SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP ALONG E COAST TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ALONG S COAST POSSIBLE LATE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START BUT ONSHORE FLOW
MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING. A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO
BE MIXED AT TIMES WITH MVFR LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED. STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS E
AND S OF CAPE COD THIS MORNING. EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

TONIGHT...LIGHT NE WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 3 FT.

FRIDAY...WINDS BECOME E-NE BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS SLOWLY INCREASE TO 3 FT ON SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH MONDAY...

***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
 INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
 MASSACHUSETTS***

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. INCREASING NE WINDS. GUSTS UP TO
30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH IMPACT MARINE
EVENT EXPECTED. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...HIGH CONFIDENCE GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS MOST WATERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
IN FACT...MODERATE RISK FOR A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS
WITH 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS. EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS AND
SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. NONETHELESS...THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING/EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. THE CONCERN IS FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY. IF WE END UP REALIZING 20 FOOT
SEAS OVER THE OPEN OCEAN AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
KNOTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION.
SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS WOULD BE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND...
HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET HARBOR.
AGAIN...IT WILL DEPEND ON EXACT WIND SPEEDS/WAVE HEIGHTS OUT OVER
THE OCEAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301146
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
746 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY DELIVER A
GLANCING BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
FOLLOWS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
745 AM UPDATE...

JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKER THAN WEDNESDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FOR TODAY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH PRES APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS H5 SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE
REGION...PUSHING OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY. H85 TEMPS DO FALL DURING THE
DAY...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE N.
TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR LATE OCTOBER...TOPPING OFF IN THE
50S. EXPECT LIGHT W-NW WINDS WITH A LIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
EXPECT THE WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE TO BUILD E ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. LIGHT N WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL VEER TO
NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME MORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS.

NOTING LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS A DIGGING H5
SHORT WAVE DIVES SE. SW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE...SO COULD
SEE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH THE COLDER AIR WORKING IN ALONG WITH A GENERAL
LIGHT WIND IN PLACE...EXPECT LOWS FALLING BACK TO THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...RANGING TO LOWER-MID 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR
S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.

FRIDAY...
MAJOR DIGGING H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WHICH SETS UP AN
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...AT
THE SURFACE...GENERAL LIGHT FLOW CONTINUES THOUGH E-NE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO FRESHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE S COAST. BIG
QUESTION AT THIS POINT...WHERE LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC
OR SE U.S. COAST FRI AFTERNOON.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NH/W MA...RANGING TO
THE LOWER-MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINS S OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME OCEAN INDUCED LIGHT SPRINKLES OR EVEN
SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE. DID NOT MENTION THIS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* GLANCING BLOW MOST LIKELY SAT/EARLY SUNDAY...BUT GREATER IMPACT
  STILL POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT A LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...30/00Z GUIDANCE HAD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THEIR HANDLING OF A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM THIS
WEEKEND. THERE ARE A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT SUGGEST A CLOSER
TRACK TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT VERY
LIKELY. THE PREDOMINANT SIGNAL IS FOR A TRACK REMAINING SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO
SMOOTH OVER AS MANY MINOR DIFFERENCES AS POSSIBLE.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS MODERATE FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE BIGGEST CONCERN REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS
DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. THERE
ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN THIS STORM/S FORMATION.
INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR
EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO A SINGLE PRIMARY STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TIMING...A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES. MOST OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...WHICH
WOULD ALSO SUGGEST A RATHER SHARP WESTERN EDGE TO THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. MINOR WOBBLES IN THE TRACK...COULD HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WHERE THIS EDGE TO THE PRECIPITATION
ESTABLISHES ITSELF.

INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY. IN FACT...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF THIS TRACK SHIFTS WEST
AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY...DYNAMIC COOLING COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...BASED ON THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TRACK...ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY. REGARDLESS...MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HAVE EXITED OUR REGION BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS...
STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP. EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS MIXING INCREASES. ACROSS
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS STORM...WE
MAY SEE A PERIOD OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. WIND ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND
WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. GIVEN MANY TREES
STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE
AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE ENHANCED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED
WITH SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A
SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY.

TODAY...MVFR-IFR VSBYS IMPROVE BY 13Z ACROSS CT VALLEY...
OTHERWISE VFR. SCT-BKN CLOUDS 4-5KFT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR-IFR ACROSS SW NH INTO NW MA LATE. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE DURING DAY...INCREASING
ALONG COAST TO 10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE IN DAY.
MAY SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP ALONG E COAST TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ALONG S COAST POSSIBLE LATE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START BUT ONSHORE FLOW
MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING. A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO
BE MIXED AT TIMES WITH MVFR LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED. STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS E
AND S OF CAPE COD THIS MORNING. EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

TONIGHT...LIGHT NE WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 3 FT.

FRIDAY...WINDS BECOME E-NE BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS SLOWLY INCREASE TO 3 FT ON SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH MONDAY...

***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
 INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
 MASSACHUSETTS***

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. INCREASING NE WINDS. GUSTS UP TO
30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH IMPACT MARINE
EVENT EXPECTED. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...HIGH CONFIDENCE GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS MOST WATERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
IN FACT...MODERATE RISK FOR A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS
WITH 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS. EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS AND
SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. NONETHELESS...THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING/EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. THE CONCERN IS FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY. IF WE END UP REALIZING 20 FOOT
SEAS OVER THE OPEN OCEAN AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
KNOTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION.
SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS WOULD BE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND...
HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET HARBOR.
AGAIN...IT WILL DEPEND ON EXACT WIND SPEEDS/WAVE HEIGHTS OUT OVER
THE OCEAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301052
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
652 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SOME
SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
645 AM UPDATE: ONLY CHANGES WERE TO TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF EARLY
MORNING PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED ATTM.

PREV DISC:
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A NICE
DRY SLOT OF AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON WNW WINDS. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS
SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE S
AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/... HIGH PRES CONTINUES OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AND INTO FRI. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH NO
PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMP
AND CLOUD FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND FRI. GENERALLY MODELS WERE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN
TROUGH LATE FRIDAY IN THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE EJECTING OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS STRONG SHORT WAVE FINALLY PHASES
WITH THE MAIN TROUGH SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY NEAR NEW ENGLAND AS
THE WHOLE THING BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.

AT THE SURFACE A COASTAL STORM DEEPENS RAPIDLY AND MOVES NORTH
AS WELL. THE GFS MSLP ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS IT EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK AS DO THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN.
HOWEVER...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. FARTHER EAST
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE MIDCOAST WILL HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR A
GLANCING BLOW. DECREASED THE QPF OVER THE REGION A BIT AS THE
STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN... HOWEVER
THE KENNEBEC VALLEY AND MIDCOAST REGIONS STILL SHOULD SEE 1-2" OF
SNOW. LOCATIONS IN BETWEEN WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. THE SNOW WILL MELT OFF QUICKLY AS HIGHS REACH THE 40S ON
SUNDAY.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM ARE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...BOTH
THE U AND THE V COMPONENTS AT 925MB AND 850MB. THIS WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN GALES OVER THE BAYS TO STRONG GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE
WINDS OVER THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOK ESPECIALLY CHILLY FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE COASTAL SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...PWATS TAKE A NOSEDIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO NEAR 0.10" OR VERY CLOSE TO THE KNOWN MINIMUM FOR THIS
STATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...HELPING RADIATIONAL COOLING OUT
TREMENDOUSLY. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
REASON.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SOME EARLY MORNING VLY FOG WILL ALLOW IFR CONDS INTO
THE MORNING OTRW MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR TODAY INTO FRI. BY LATE
FRI SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

LONG TERM...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ON SATURDAY BRINGING
CEILINGS DOWN BELOW VFR. MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE
INTO THE AREA AS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD NORTH. IFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SNOW. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUN THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU FRI.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONSECUTIVE
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN MOVING THE STORM OUT FARTHER. CURRENTLY THE
STORM PASSES OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. HOWEVER GALES APPEAR
LIKELY OVER THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO 8-12 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 301052
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
652 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SOME
SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
645 AM UPDATE: ONLY CHANGES WERE TO TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF EARLY
MORNING PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED ATTM.

PREV DISC:
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A NICE
DRY SLOT OF AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON WNW WINDS. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS
SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE S
AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/... HIGH PRES CONTINUES OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AND INTO FRI. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH NO
PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMP
AND CLOUD FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND FRI. GENERALLY MODELS WERE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN
TROUGH LATE FRIDAY IN THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE EJECTING OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS STRONG SHORT WAVE FINALLY PHASES
WITH THE MAIN TROUGH SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY NEAR NEW ENGLAND AS
THE WHOLE THING BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.

AT THE SURFACE A COASTAL STORM DEEPENS RAPIDLY AND MOVES NORTH
AS WELL. THE GFS MSLP ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS IT EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK AS DO THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN.
HOWEVER...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. FARTHER EAST
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE MIDCOAST WILL HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR A
GLANCING BLOW. DECREASED THE QPF OVER THE REGION A BIT AS THE
STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN... HOWEVER
THE KENNEBEC VALLEY AND MIDCOAST REGIONS STILL SHOULD SEE 1-2" OF
SNOW. LOCATIONS IN BETWEEN WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. THE SNOW WILL MELT OFF QUICKLY AS HIGHS REACH THE 40S ON
SUNDAY.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM ARE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...BOTH
THE U AND THE V COMPONENTS AT 925MB AND 850MB. THIS WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN GALES OVER THE BAYS TO STRONG GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE
WINDS OVER THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOK ESPECIALLY CHILLY FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE COASTAL SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...PWATS TAKE A NOSEDIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO NEAR 0.10" OR VERY CLOSE TO THE KNOWN MINIMUM FOR THIS
STATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...HELPING RADIATIONAL COOLING OUT
TREMENDOUSLY. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
REASON.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SOME EARLY MORNING VLY FOG WILL ALLOW IFR CONDS INTO
THE MORNING OTRW MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR TODAY INTO FRI. BY LATE
FRI SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

LONG TERM...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ON SATURDAY BRINGING
CEILINGS DOWN BELOW VFR. MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE
INTO THE AREA AS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD NORTH. IFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SNOW. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUN THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU FRI.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONSECUTIVE
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN MOVING THE STORM OUT FARTHER. CURRENTLY THE
STORM PASSES OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. HOWEVER GALES APPEAR
LIKELY OVER THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO 8-12 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 301052
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
652 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SOME
SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
645 AM UPDATE: ONLY CHANGES WERE TO TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF EARLY
MORNING PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED ATTM.

PREV DISC:
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A NICE
DRY SLOT OF AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON WNW WINDS. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS
SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE S
AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/... HIGH PRES CONTINUES OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AND INTO FRI. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH NO
PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMP
AND CLOUD FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND FRI. GENERALLY MODELS WERE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN
TROUGH LATE FRIDAY IN THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE EJECTING OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS STRONG SHORT WAVE FINALLY PHASES
WITH THE MAIN TROUGH SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY NEAR NEW ENGLAND AS
THE WHOLE THING BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.

AT THE SURFACE A COASTAL STORM DEEPENS RAPIDLY AND MOVES NORTH
AS WELL. THE GFS MSLP ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS IT EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK AS DO THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN.
HOWEVER...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. FARTHER EAST
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE MIDCOAST WILL HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR A
GLANCING BLOW. DECREASED THE QPF OVER THE REGION A BIT AS THE
STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN... HOWEVER
THE KENNEBEC VALLEY AND MIDCOAST REGIONS STILL SHOULD SEE 1-2" OF
SNOW. LOCATIONS IN BETWEEN WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. THE SNOW WILL MELT OFF QUICKLY AS HIGHS REACH THE 40S ON
SUNDAY.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM ARE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...BOTH
THE U AND THE V COMPONENTS AT 925MB AND 850MB. THIS WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN GALES OVER THE BAYS TO STRONG GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE
WINDS OVER THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOK ESPECIALLY CHILLY FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE COASTAL SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...PWATS TAKE A NOSEDIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO NEAR 0.10" OR VERY CLOSE TO THE KNOWN MINIMUM FOR THIS
STATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...HELPING RADIATIONAL COOLING OUT
TREMENDOUSLY. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
REASON.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SOME EARLY MORNING VLY FOG WILL ALLOW IFR CONDS INTO
THE MORNING OTRW MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR TODAY INTO FRI. BY LATE
FRI SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

LONG TERM...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ON SATURDAY BRINGING
CEILINGS DOWN BELOW VFR. MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE
INTO THE AREA AS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD NORTH. IFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SNOW. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUN THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU FRI.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONSECUTIVE
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN MOVING THE STORM OUT FARTHER. CURRENTLY THE
STORM PASSES OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. HOWEVER GALES APPEAR
LIKELY OVER THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO 8-12 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 301052
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
652 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SOME
SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
645 AM UPDATE: ONLY CHANGES WERE TO TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF EARLY
MORNING PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED ATTM.

PREV DISC:
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A NICE
DRY SLOT OF AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON WNW WINDS. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS
SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE S
AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/... HIGH PRES CONTINUES OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AND INTO FRI. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH NO
PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMP
AND CLOUD FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND FRI. GENERALLY MODELS WERE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN
TROUGH LATE FRIDAY IN THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE EJECTING OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS STRONG SHORT WAVE FINALLY PHASES
WITH THE MAIN TROUGH SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY NEAR NEW ENGLAND AS
THE WHOLE THING BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.

AT THE SURFACE A COASTAL STORM DEEPENS RAPIDLY AND MOVES NORTH
AS WELL. THE GFS MSLP ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS IT EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK AS DO THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN.
HOWEVER...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. FARTHER EAST
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE MIDCOAST WILL HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR A
GLANCING BLOW. DECREASED THE QPF OVER THE REGION A BIT AS THE
STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN... HOWEVER
THE KENNEBEC VALLEY AND MIDCOAST REGIONS STILL SHOULD SEE 1-2" OF
SNOW. LOCATIONS IN BETWEEN WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. THE SNOW WILL MELT OFF QUICKLY AS HIGHS REACH THE 40S ON
SUNDAY.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM ARE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...BOTH
THE U AND THE V COMPONENTS AT 925MB AND 850MB. THIS WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN GALES OVER THE BAYS TO STRONG GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE
WINDS OVER THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOK ESPECIALLY CHILLY FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE COASTAL SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...PWATS TAKE A NOSEDIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO NEAR 0.10" OR VERY CLOSE TO THE KNOWN MINIMUM FOR THIS
STATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...HELPING RADIATIONAL COOLING OUT
TREMENDOUSLY. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
REASON.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SOME EARLY MORNING VLY FOG WILL ALLOW IFR CONDS INTO
THE MORNING OTRW MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR TODAY INTO FRI. BY LATE
FRI SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

LONG TERM...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ON SATURDAY BRINGING
CEILINGS DOWN BELOW VFR. MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE
INTO THE AREA AS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD NORTH. IFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SNOW. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUN THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU FRI.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONSECUTIVE
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN MOVING THE STORM OUT FARTHER. CURRENTLY THE
STORM PASSES OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. HOWEVER GALES APPEAR
LIKELY OVER THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO 8-12 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KBOX 300847
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
447 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY DELIVER A
GLANCING BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
FOLLOWS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

LAST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET AT
08Z...THOUGH NOTING SOME MORE SHOWERS LINGERING WELL S OF LONG
ISLAND THAT MIGHT CLIP NANTUCKET THROUGH MID MORNING. HAVE KEPT A
DRY FORECAST GOING THERE...FOR NOW. PATCHY FOG...WITH VSBYS
LOCALLY LOWERED TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS...ACROSS THE CT VALLEY WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH PRES APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS H5 SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE
REGION...PUSHING OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY. H85 TEMPS DO FALL DURING THE
DAY...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE N.
TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR LATE OCTOBER...TOPPING OFF IN THE
50S. EXPECT LIGHT W-NW WINDS WITH A LIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...
EXPECT THE WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE TO BUILD E ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. LIGHT N WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL VEER TO
NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME MORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS.

NOTING LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS A DIGGING H5
SHORT WAVE DIVES SE. SW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE...SO COULD
SEE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH THE COLDER AIR WORKING IN ALONG WITH A GENERAL
LIGHT WIND IN PLACE...EXPECT LOWS FALLING BACK TO THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...RANGING TO LOWER-MID 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR
S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.

FRIDAY...
MAJOR DIGGING H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WHICH SETS UP AN
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...AT
THE SURFACE...GENERAL LIGHT FLOW CONTINUES THOUGH E-NE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO FRESHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE S COAST. BIG
QUESTION AT THIS POINT...WHERE LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC
OR SE U.S. COAST FRI AFTERNOON.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NH/W MA...RANGING TO
THE LOWER-MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINS S OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME OCEAN INDUCED LIGHT SPRINKLES OR EVEN
SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE. DID NOT MENTION THIS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* GLANCING BLOW MOST LIKELY SAT/EARLY SUNDAY...BUT GREATER IMPACT
  STILL POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT A LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...
30/00Z GUIDANCE HAD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THEIR
HANDLING OF A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE A
FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT SUGGEST A CLOSER TRACK TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND REMAINS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT VERY LIKELY. THE PREDOMINANT
SIGNAL IS FOR A TRACK REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO SMOOTH OVER AS MANY
MINOR DIFFERENCES AS POSSIBLE.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS MODERATE FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE BIGGEST CONCERN REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS
DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. THERE
ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN THIS STORM/S FORMATION.
INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR
EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO A SINGLE PRIMARY STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TIMING...
A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD REACHES. MOST OF THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE...WHICH WOULD ALSO SUGGEST A RATHER SHARP WESTERN
EDGE TO THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. MINOR WOBBLES IN THE
TRACK...COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WHERE THIS EDGE TO THE
PRECIPITATION ESTABLISHES ITSELF.

INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY. IN FACT...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF THIS TRACK SHIFTS WEST
AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY...DYNAMIC COOLING COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.  AGAIN...BASED ON THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TRACK...
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY. REGARDLESS...MOST
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE EXITED OUR REGION BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS...
STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP. EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS MIXING INCREASES. ACROSS
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS STORM...WE
MAY SEE A PERIOD OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. WIND ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND
WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. GIVEN MANY TREES
STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE
AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE ENHANCED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED
WITH SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A
SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG ACROSS CT VALLEY OF SW NH AND
W MA WITH LOCAL IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AT NORMALLY PRONE AREAS
THROUGH 12Z. LOW PROB OF LOCAL MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS
INTERIOR E MA INTO NE CT BETWEEN 08Z-12Z.

TODAY...MVFR-IFR VSBYS IMPROVE BY 14Z ACROSS CT VALLEY...
OTHERWISE VFR. SCT-BKN CLOUDS 4-5KFT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR-IFR ACROSS SW NH INTO NW MA LATE. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE DURING DAY...INCREASING
ALONG COAST TO 10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE IN DAY.
MAY SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP ALONG E COAST TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ALONG S COAST POSSIBLE LATE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START BUT ONSHORE FLOW
MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING. A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO
BE MIXED AT TIMES WITH MVFR LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED. STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...LEFTOVER 5-6 FT SEAS AND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
DIMINISH TOWARD DAYBREAK.

TODAY...LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS E AND S OF CAPE COD
SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

TONIGHT...LIGHT NE WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 3 FT.

FRIDAY...WINDS BECOME E-NE BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS SLOWLY INCREASE TO 3 FT ON SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH MONDAY...

***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
 INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
 MASSACHUSETTS***

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. INCREASING NE WINDS. GUSTS UP TO
30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH IMPACT MARINE
EVENT EXPECTED. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...HIGH CONFIDENCE GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS MOST WATERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
IN FACT... MODERATE RISK FOR A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS
WITH 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS. EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS AND
SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. NONETHELESS...THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING/EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. THE CONCERN IS FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY. IF WE END UP REALIZING 20 FOOT
SEAS OVER THE OPEN OCEAN AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
KNOTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION.
SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS WOULD BE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND...
HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET HARBOR.
AGAIN...IT WILL DEPEND ON EXACT WIND SPEEDS/WAVE HEIGHTS OUT OVER
THE OCEAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BELK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300705
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
305 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS. SEASONABLE AND DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY
DELIVER A GLANCING BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...BUT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

210 AM UPDATE...

LINE OF SHOWERS TENDING TO DISSIPATE AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS SE ACROSS
THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET AT 06Z. SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER
THOSE AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE LINE FINALLY PUSHES
E. BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS HAVE STEADILY PUSHED E. HOWEVER...WITH THE
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN CLOSE TO THE
LOWERING DEWPTS ACROSS S NH AND DOWN THE CT VALLEY ACROSS W MA. A
FEW SPOTS HAVE VSBYS BELOW 1/2SM IN THE USUAL SUSPECTS /KEEN AND
KORE/. MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS RI/SE MA BUT SHOULD PUSH
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

TEMPS HAVE FALLEN TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WHERE SKIES HAVE
CLEARED AND CALM WINDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER CT
VALLEY...RANGING TO THE LOWER-MID 50S WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN ON THE S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AT 06Z. LIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WINDS LIGHT THROUGH 12Z. DEWPTS WILL TAKE THEIR TIME FALLING
WITH THE LIGHT WINDS.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT. MAIN
CHANGES WERE TO LOWER DEWPTS A BIT. SHORT RANGE MODELS NOT
HANDLING THE LOWER DEWPTS ALREADY IN THE CT VALLEY EXCEPT FOR SOME
OF THE NEAR TERM BIAS CORRECTED DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TODAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD E. SUBSIDENCE AND SINKING AIR IN
CONTROL OF THE REGIONS WEATHER. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO
BUILD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS /H85 JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK/
EXPECT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX-
DOWN /DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-30S/ AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SCATTERED
CUMULUS DECK AROUND 5-6 KFT.

HIGHS AROUND THE 50S EXPECTED WHICH IS JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. COLD
AIRMASS BELOW FREEZING REMAINS ALOFT. A GOOD CASE FOR EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...THAT IS IF CLOUDS DO NOT BECOME AN ISSUE.

CONSIDERING DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-30S ON THURSDAY...IT IS
POSSIBLE LOCATIONS COULD COOL BELOW THE CROSSOVER THRESHOLD IF THE
CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT AND WE ARE ALLOWED TO RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY.
BUT BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH WHICH WEAK IMPULSES WILL GLIDE...
THERE IS ALWAYS THAT POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEMENT OF MID-LEVEL LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE YIELDING A BLANKETING CLOUD BASE.

IF CONDITIONS REMAIN CLEAR...THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SPECULATE
THAT SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP WHEREVER SOILS ARE SATURATED
/I.E. SWAMPY BOGS/. LOWS WOULD BOTTOM DOWN AROUND THE MID-30S...LOW-
30S FOR THOSE AREAS THAT RADIATE. WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE
SHORES. BUT WILL GO CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS FORECAST CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS AND HOLD WITH LOWS AROUND THE
UPPER-30S. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST / FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL ON FRIDAY
* GLANCING BLOW FAVORED SAT/EARLY SUN BUT HIGHER IMPACT POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS LATE SAT/SUN ESP CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUE AND WED

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL
RESULT IN A RATHER CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS. A SPOT
SHOWER AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE
DRY. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW OVER THIS TIME.  ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY PLOTS SHOW THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING THE
EVENTUAL STORM IS STILL NEAR THE ARCTIC CIRCLE.  THIS LEAVES PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK/STRENGTH AND IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH THAT SAID...CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A GLANCING BLOW AND
NOT A DIRECT HIT FOR OUR REGION.  THE BIGGEST CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS
FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  THERE ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN STORM
FORMATION. INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OR EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO ONE STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A BIG CAVEAT IS THAT THIS EVENT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED BETWEEN 72 AND
96 HOUR OUT...WHICH IS QUITE A BIT OF TIME IN THE MODEL WORLD.  IF
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED...THE STORM
WILL INTENSIFY EARLIER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST.  WHILE THIS IS A
LOWER PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT...ITS CERTAINLY IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES.  WHAT EVER HAPPENS...WE CAN SAY THAT EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT THAN THE INTERIOR.

PTYPE AND TIMING...

A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD REACHES.  INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN OR JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.  IN FACT...MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF
THE TRACK SHIFTS WEST AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN...DYNAMIC COOLING WOULD CHANGE
PTYPE TO SNOW AT LEAST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  AGAIN...BASED ON
EXPECTED TRACK...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY...BUT
STILL CAN/T BE RULED OUT. WHAT EVER HAPPENS...MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE REGION BY MID MORNING ON SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS...

STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP.  EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SUN AS MIXING INCREASES.  ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM MAY SEE A PERIOD
OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  GIVEN MANY TREES STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON
THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE
ENHANCED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.  A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED WITH
SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY TUE OR
WED. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG ACROSS CT VALLEY OF SW NH AND
W MA WITH LOCAL IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AT NORMALLY PRONE AREAS
THROUGH 12Z. LOW PROB OF LOCAL MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS
INTERIOR E MA INTO NE CT BETWEEN 08Z-12Z.

TODAY...MVFR-IFR VSBYS IMPROVE BY 14Z ACROSS CT VALLEY...OTHERWISE
VFR. SCT-BKN CLOUDS 4-5KFT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR-IFR ACROSS SW NH INTO NW MA LATE. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE DURING DAY...INCREASING
ALONG COAST TO 10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE IN DAY.
MAY SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP ALONG E COAST TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ALONG S COAST POSSIBLE LATE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START BUT ONSHORE FLOW
MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING. A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON UNCERTAINTY OF
TRACK/STRENGTH AND TIMING OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO BE MIXED IN AT TIMES WITH MVFR SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT. LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY AT THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED.  STRONGEST WINDS CAPE AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...LEFTOVER 5-6 FT SEAS AND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
DIMINISH TOWARD DAYBREAK.

TODAY...LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS E AND S OF CAPE COD
SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

TONIGHT...LIGHT NE WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 3 FT.

FRIDAY...WINDS BECOME E-NE BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS SLOWLY INCREASE TO 3 FT ON SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH MONDAY...

***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SAT INTO
 SUNDAY ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS***

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. INCREASING NE WINDS. GUSTS UP TO
25-30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT
EXPECTED.  WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING
OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS
MOST WATERS ARE PRETTY MUCH A SLAM DUNK LATE SAT INTO SUN.  IN
FACT...DECENT CHANCE IN A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH 20
FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON THE EXACT
TRACK/INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...BUT APPEARS THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF A HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT.  A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE LATE SAT INTO SUN.
NONETHELESS...THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING/EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.  THE CONCERN IS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HIGH
TIDE ON SUNDAY.  IF WE END UP REALIZING 20 FOOT SEAS OVER THE OPEN
OCEAN AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...THERE COULD BE
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION.  SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS
WOULD BE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS
SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET HARBOR.  AGAIN...IT WILL DEPEND ON
EXACT WIND SPEEDS/WAVE HEIGHTS OUT OVER THE OCEAN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KGYX 300652
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
252 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SOME
SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A NICE DRY SLOT OF
AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON WNW WINDS. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS SOME CLOUDS
WILL LINGER. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE S AND ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO FRI. CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH NO PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A
BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMP AND CLOUD FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND FRI.
GENERALLY MODELS WERE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN
TROUGH LATE FRIDAY IN THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE EJECTING OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS STRONG SHORT WAVE FINALLY PHASES
WITH THE MAIN TROUGH SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY NEAR NEW ENGLAND AS
THE WHOLE THING BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.

AT THE SURFACE A COASTAL STORM DEEPENS RAPIDLY AND MOVES NORTH
AS WELL. THE GFS MSLP ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS IT EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK AS DO THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN.
HOWEVER...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. FARTHER EAST
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE MIDCOAST WILL HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR A
GLANCING BLOW. DECREASED THE QPF OVER THE REGION A BIT AS THE
STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN... HOWEVER
THE KENNEBEC VALLEY AND MIDCOAST REGIONS STILL SHOULD SEE 1-2" OF
SNOW. LOCATIONS IN BETWEEN WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. THE SNOW WILL MELT OFF QUICKLY AS HIGHS REACH THE 40S ON
SUNDAY.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM ARE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...BOTH
THE U AND THE V COMPONENTS AT 925MB AND 850MB. THIS WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN GALES OVER THE BAYS TO STRONG GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE
WINDS OVER THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOK ESPECIALLY CHILLY FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE COASTAL SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...PWATS TAKE A NOSEDIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO NEAR 0.10" OR VERY CLOSE TO THE KNOWN MINIMUM FOR THIS
STATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...HELPING RADIATIONAL COOLING OUT
TREMENDOUSLY. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
REASON.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SOME EARLY MORNING VLY FOG WILL ALLOW IFR CONDS INTO
THE MORNING OTRW MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR TODAY INTO FRI. BY LATE
FRI SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

LONG TERM...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ON SATURDAY BRINGING
CEILINGS DOWN BELOW VFR. MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE
INTO THE AREA AS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD NORTH. IFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SNOW. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUN THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU FRI.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONSECUTIVE
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN MOVING THE STORM OUT FARTHER. CURRENTLY THE
STORM PASSES OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. HOWEVER GALES APPEAR
LIKELY OVER THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO 8-12 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

MARINE/HANES




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300310
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1110 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS. SEASONABLE AND DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY
DELIVER A GLANCING BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...BUT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

1040 PM UPDATE...
BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SHIFT STEADILY E AS SEEN ON LATEST
NE 88D REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. THE COLD FRONT IS ACTUALLY JUST E OF
CAPE COD AT 02Z...AS THE DEWPTS HAVE DROPPED AND WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED TO LIGHT N-NW ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPE EXCEPT NANTUCKET
WHICH SHOULD SHIFT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

BAND OF SHOWERS TENDING TO BREAK APART ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN. WILL STILL SEE SCT SHOWERS ACROSS E MA/S RI AS
WELL AS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO...THEN
THE SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE. DEWPTS HAVE BEEN DROPPING
STEADILY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND NOTING SAME TREND ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. DEWPTS HAVE DROPPED TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
BERKSHIRES INTO SW NH...AND WILL FILTER EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

ALSO NOTING BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS WORKING E OUT OF SW NH/W MA ON
LATEST IR SATELLITE WHICH SHOULD ALSO PUSH E OVERNIGHT.

HAVE UPDATED POPS TO PUSH PRECIP OFFSHORE A BIT FASTER AS
SUGGESTED BY RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS THE SKY COVER. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST LOOKED IN GOOD SHAPE BUT DID BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.
MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS E MA/RI INTO S CENTRAL NH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE DEWPTS DROP ALLOWING FOR DRIER
AIR TO MOVE IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TODAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD E. SUBSIDENCE AND SINKING AIR IN
CONTROL OF THE REGIONS WEATHER. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO
BUILD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS /H85 JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK/
EXPECT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX-
DOWN /DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-30S/ AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SCATTERED
CUMULUS DECK AROUND 5-6 KFT.

HIGHS AROUND THE 50S EXPECTED WHICH IS JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. COLD
AIRMASS BELOW FREEZING REMAINS ALOFT. A GOOD CASE FOR EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...THAT IS IF CLOUDS DO NOT BECOME AN ISSUE.

CONSIDERING DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-30S ON THURSDAY...IT IS
POSSIBLE LOCATIONS COULD COOL BELOW THE CROSSOVER THRESHOLD IF THE
CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT AND WE ARE ALLOWED TO RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY.
BUT BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH WHICH WEAK IMPULSES WILL GLIDE...
THERE IS ALWAYS THAT POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEMENT OF MID-LEVEL LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE YIELDING A BLANKETING CLOUD BASE.

IF CONDITIONS REMAIN CLEAR...THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SPECULATE
THAT SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP WHEREVER SOILS ARE SATURATED
/I.E. SWAMPY BOGS/. LOWS WOULD BOTTOM DOWN AROUND THE MID-30S...LOW-
30S FOR THOSE AREAS THAT RADIATE. WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE
SHORES. BUT WILL GO CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS FORECAST CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS AND HOLD WITH LOWS AROUND THE
UPPER-30S. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST / FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL ON FRIDAY
* GLANCING BLOW FAVORED SAT/EARLY SUN BUT HIGHER IMPACT POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS LATE SAT/SUN ESP CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUE AND WED

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL
RESULT IN A RATHER CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS. A SPOT
SHOWER AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE
DRY. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW OVER THIS TIME.  ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY PLOTS SHOW THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING THE
EVENTUAL STORM IS STILL NEAR THE ARCTIC CIRCLE.  THIS LEAVES PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK/STRENGTH AND IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH THAT SAID...CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A GLANCING BLOW AND
NOT A DIRECT HIT FOR OUR REGION.  THE BIGGEST CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS
FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  THERE ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN STORM
FORMATION. INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OR EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO ONE STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A BIG CAVEAT IS THAT THIS EVENT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED BETWEEN 72 AND
96 HOUR OUT...WHICH IS QUITE A BIT OF TIME IN THE MODEL WORLD.  IF
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED...THE STORM
WILL INTENSIFY EARLIER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST.  WHILE THIS IS A
LOWER PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT...ITS CERTAINLY IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES.  WHAT EVER HAPPENS...WE CAN SAY THAT EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT THAN THE INTERIOR.

PTYPE AND TIMING...

A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD REACHES.  INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN OR JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.  IN FACT...MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF
THE TRACK SHIFTS WEST AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN...DYNAMIC COOLING WOULD CHANGE
PTYPE TO SNOW AT LEAST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  AGAIN...BASED ON
EXPECTED TRACK...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY...BUT
STILL CAN/T BE RULED OUT. WHAT EVER HAPPENS...MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE REGION BY MID MORNING ON SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS...

STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP.  EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SUN AS MIXING INCREASES.  ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM MAY SEE A PERIOD
OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  GIVEN MANY TREES STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON
THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE
ENHANCED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.  A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED WITH
SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY TUE OR
WED. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
RESULTING IN LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. BAND
OF SHOWERS ACROSS E MA WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY 04Z-06Z. LOW PROB OF
LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN BRIEF PATCHY FOG THROUGH 06Z-08Z ACROSS E
MA/RI/S CENTRAL NH TERMINALS BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE.

TODAY...VFR. LIGHT W-WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-5 KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
TERMINALS.

TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS. SKC. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR TO START BUT
ONSHORE FLOW MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING FRI AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT.  A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON UNCERTAINTY OF
TRACK/STRENGTH AND TIMING OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO BE MIXED IN AT TIMES WITH MVFR SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT. LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY AT THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED.  STRONGEST WINDS CAPE AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS ALREADY VEERING TO W-NW ACROSS NEAR SHORE WATERS AT 03Z.
AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN...WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT ON THE OUTER WATERS
AND DIMINISH. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...UP TO 5-6 FT...BUT WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE. HAVE EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS SEAS WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO SUBSIDE.

LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SAT INTO
 SUNDAY ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS***

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN
EASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS.  GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH
THOUGH TO KEEP WINDS SPEEDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT
EXPECTED.  WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING
OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS
MOST WATERS ARE PRETTY MUCH A SLAM DUNK LATE SAT INTO SUN.  IN
FACT...DECENT CHANCE IN A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH 20
FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON THE EXACT
TRACK/INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...BUT APPEARS THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF A HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT.  A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE LATE SAT INTO SUN.
NONETHELESS...THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING/EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.  THE CONCERN IS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HIGH
TIDE ON SUNDAY.  IF WE END UP REALIZING 20 FOOT SEAS OVER THE OPEN
OCEAN AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...THERE COULD BE
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION.  SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS
WOULD BE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS
SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET HARBOR.  AGAIN...IT WILL DEPEND ON
EXACT WIND SPEEDS/WAVE HEIGHTS OUT OVER THE OCEAN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KGYX 300140
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
940 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR THE CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND
SNOW. WHILE AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO PASS MOSTLY OUT TO SEA...SOME
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
940 PM UPDATE...BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING OFFSHORE.
HAVE SPED UP THE CLEARING LINE WHICH IS REACHING THE CT VALLEY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

630 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST A BIT THIS EVENING MAINLY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING OF THE BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE CWA.
THE HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON IT AND HAVE USED IT/S TIMING. THE BAND
SHOULD SPEED UP A BIT AND EXIT THE COAST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUSLY...

SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO STRETCH SW ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE
VLY AND THEN INTO CENTRAL NY. SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK MORE QUICKLY
TO THE E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE CWA THRU LATE THIS AFT AND DURING EARLY
EVENING. THE SHRA SHOULD CLEAR ALL BUT THE MID-COAST BY7 AROUND
00Z...AND SHOULD EXIT THERE BY 02Z.

WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR OUT ANY LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG LINGERING ALONG THE COAST...AND SKIES SHOULD AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS....WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
IN THE MTNS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A WEAK 500MB RIDGE PASSE4S THRU THE CWA EARLY AM...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A CLUSTER OF MID-HIGH EARLY...SHOULD SEE SFC HIGH
BUILD IN FROM THE W AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. WILL SEE
UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND DOWNSLOPE CLEARING DURING THE DAY....WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS DROP OFF FOR A MAINLY CLEAR AND
CALM THU NIGHT...SO TEMPS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED REVOLVES AROUND POWERFUL LOW PRES
SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND.

A POTENT S/WV WILL CARVE OUT A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF OVER THE ERN
CONUS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH DIGGING A -3 TO -5 SD
CLOSED LOW THRU THE CAROLINAS SAT. THIS EXITS THE COAST AND FUELS
A POWERFUL LOW PRES OVER THE WATERS THAT RACES NEWD. THE FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS A LEAD S/WV THAT IS FORECAST TO TRIGGER
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST PRIOR TO THE MAIN UPPER TROF ARRIVING
OVER EAST COAST. THE RESULT IS A PUSH EWD OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WHICH KEEPS THE SECOND SFC LOW FARTHER OUT TO SEA FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE CLOSED NATURE OF THE UPPER
LEVELS THIS SFC LOW WILL TRY AND TUCK BACK TOWARDS THE COAST WITH
TIME...SO COASTAL ME IS NOT LEFT HIGH AND DRY. INCREASING
LONGITUDE WILL MEAN INCREASING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING QPF IN THIS
SET UP. PARTS OF NH COULD SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PCPN...WHILE THE PENOBSCOT BAY REGION SEES CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

ATTM A MULTI MODEL BLEND SEEMS PRUDENT...THOUGH THE INDIVIDUAL
PIECES OF GUIDANCE ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH A NEAR MISS. THE
RESULTING QPF FORECAST IS AROUND 0.10 INCHES FOR THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...INCREASING TO NEAR A HALF INCH AROUND KPWM TO
JACKMAN...AND FINALLY 0.75 INCHES NEAR KRKD. EXAMINING TEMP
PROFILES OF THE VARIOUS MODELS DOES GIVE SUPPORT TO A WIDESPREAD
CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNFL OF
THE SEASON. THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRES AND LEAD S/WV HEADING
OUT TO SEA WILL HELP TO MITIGATE WAA BRINGING IN ABOVE FREEZING
AIR ALOFT. MODEL FORECASTS DO WARM SOME ALOFT...BUT AS 925 MB
TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -4 C ALONG THE COAST...THAT SHOULD STAY ALL OR
MOSTLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO SAT NIGHT AND SUN. BASED ON
THAT FORECAST ALOFT AND EXPECTED HOURLY TEMPS...THE GRIDS REFLECT
3-5 INCHES OF SNFL POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL ME AND ESPECIALLY THE
MIDCOAST. CLOSER TO KPWM LESS THAN AN INCH IS POSSIBLE...WITH A
DUSTING TO JUST A FEW FLAKES ELSEWHERE.

ALSO OF NOTE ARE THE WIND PROFILES FROM THE VARIOUS FORECAST
MODELS. ATTM THE GFS AND CMC ARE THE MOST BULLISH GUIDANCE. BASED
ON THE WIND ALOFT AND FORECAST MIXED LAYER...GUSTS GREATER THAN 40
KTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. OVER THE OUTER WATERS EVEN STRONGER GUSTS
IN THE 50-60 KT RANGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS TEMPERED
SLIGHTLY...WITH OVERLAND GUSTS MORE IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE. GIVEN
THE DIFFICULTY IN REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA IN MOST
EVENTS THE ECMWF WAS WEIGHTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE BLEND. EVEN
SO THE FORECAST REFLECTS 35-45 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE COAST...WITH
NEAR STORM FORCE OVER THE WATERS.

THE MAIN POINT IS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT AT LEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR THE FORECAST TO CHANGE IN EITHER
DIRECTION...INCLUDING FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND LESS PCPN.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS THE PREFERRED
FORECAST METHOD. HIGH PRES AND RIDING ALOFT GENERALLY IN CONTROL
THRU MIDWEEK. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FROM THE COLDER THAN
NORMAL WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
ONCE A COLD FRONT PASSES THRU AROUND 00Z. COULD SEE SOME FOG
ADVECT IN FROM THE RIVER AT KLEB. VFR THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THU
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD FRI. LOW PRES GATHERS
STRENGTH S OF THE AREA ON SAT...WITH CLOUDS SPREADING NWD. MVFR
AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE INTO THE AREA. SNFL IS POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SAT INTO SUN. ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL ME...BUT IFR VSBYS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
IN ANY SNOW. GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED LATE SUN THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH WILL SEE A BRIEF SURGE IN W-NW WINDS
OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
LVLS THRU THU NIGHT.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS GOING TO GATHER STRENGTH
INTO THE WEEKEND. ATTM A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO
PASS THRU OR NEAR THE GULF OF ME. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ATTM...BUT GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE.
SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO NEAR 20 FT IN THIS SCENARIO. WINDS AND
SEAS THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES
TAKES CONTROL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
LONG TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KBOX 292337
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
737 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS CONCLUDE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
SEASONABLE AND DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY DELIVER A GLANCING
BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS WITH
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

735 PM UPDATE...

THE COLD HAS NOW PROGRESSED TO NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL.  BAND OF
RAIN SHOWERS WAS LAGGING A BIT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN SOME MID LEVEL LIFT. THE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT
LAST MORE THAN AN HOUR OR TWO IN A GIVEN LOCATION...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL.  THE SHOWERS WERE NOW
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MA/NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT AND WILL REACH THE I-
95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 830 AND 10 PM.  THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE
EXITING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AFTER 2 OR 3 AM.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO LESS
THAN 0.15 INCHES.

MAIN TROUGH AXIS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LIKELY
BLANKET OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS MILD TOWARDS SHORES WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-40S.
ELSEWHERE...GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED W TO E AS W-WINDS DRIVE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. COOLEST CONDITIONS N AND W YET
WINDS /MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER/ WILL LIKELY LIMIT
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.
MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS SOEM OF THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD E. SUBSIDENCE AND SINKING AIR IN
CONTROL OF THE REGIONS WEATHER. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO
BUILD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS /H85 JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK/
EXPECT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX-
DOWN /DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-30S/ AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SCATTERED
CUMULUS DECK AROUND 5-6 KFT.

HIGHS AROUND THE 50S EXPECTED WHICH IS JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. COLD
AIRMASS BELOW FREEZING REMAINS ALOFT. A GOOD CASE FOR EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...THAT IS IF CLOUDS DO NOT BECOME AN ISSUE.

CONSIDERING DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-30S ON THURSDAY...IT IS
POSSIBLE LOCATIONS COULD COOL BELOW THE CROSSOVER THRESHOLD IF THE
CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT AND WE ARE ALLOWED TO RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY.
BUT BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH WHICH WEAK IMPULSES WILL GLIDE...
THERE IS ALWAYS THAT POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEMENT OF MID-LEVEL LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE YIELDING A BLANKETING CLOUD BASE.

IF CONDITIONS REMAIN CLEAR...THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SPECULATE
THAT SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP WHEREVER SOILS ARE SATURATED
/I.E. SWAMPY BOGS/. LOWS WOULD BOTTOM DOWN AROUND THE MID-30S...LOW-
30S FOR THOSE AREAS THAT RADIATE. WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE
SHORES. BUT WILL GO CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS FORECAST CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS AND HOLD WITH LOWS AROUND THE
UPPER-30S. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST / FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL ON FRIDAY
* GLANCING BLOW FAVORED SAT/EARLY SUN BUT HIGHER IMPACT POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS LATE SAT/SUN ESP CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUE AND WED

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

AN ENLONGATED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL RESULT
IN A RATHER CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS.  A SPOT SHOWER AND
PERHAPS EVEN SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY.  HIGHS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW OVER THIS TIME.  ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY PLOTS SHOW THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING THE
EVENTUAL STORM IS STILL NEAR THE ARCTIC CIRCLE.  THIS LEAVES PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK/STRENGTH AND IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH THAT SAID...CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A GLANCING BLOW AND
NOT A DIRECT HIT FOR OUR REGION.  THE BIGGEST CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS
FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  THERE ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN STORM
FORMATION.  INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ENLONGATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OR EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO ONE STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A BIG CAVEAT IS THAT THIS EVENT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED BETWEEN 72 AND
96 HOUR OUT...WHICH IS QUITE A BIT OF TIME IN THE MODEL WORLD.  IF
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED...THE STORM
WILL INTENSIFY EARLIER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST.  WHILE THIS IS A
LOWER PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT...ITS CERTAINLY IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES.  WHAT EVER HAPPENS...WE CAN SAY THAT EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT THAN THE INTERIOR.

PTYPE AND TIMING...

A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD REACHES.  INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN OR JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.  IN FACT...MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF
THE TRACK SHIFTS WEST AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN...DYNAMIC COOLING WOULD CHANGE
PTYPE TO SNOW AT LEAST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  AGAIN...BASED ON
EXPECTED TRACK...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY...BUT
STILL CAN/T BE RULED OUT. WHAT EVER HAPPENS...MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE REGION BY MID MORNING ON SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS...

STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP.  EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SUN AS MIXING INCREASES.  ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM MAY SEE A PERIOD
OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  GIVEN MANY TREES STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON
THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE
ENHANCED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.  A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED WITH
SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY TUE OR
WED. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS RESULTING IN
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.  SHOULD SEE ANY LEFT
OVER LOW CLOUDS SCOUR OUT BY 3Z.  IN ADDITION...A BAND OF SHOWERS
WAS WORKING THROUGH INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING.  THESE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT LAST LONG IN A GIVEN LOCATION AND
EXIT THE CAPE/NANTUCKET BY 6 OR 7Z.

THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W-WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-5 KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
TERMINALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS. SKC. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR TO START BUT
ONSHORE FLOW MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING FRI AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT.  A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON UNCERTAINTY OF
TRACK/STRENGTH AND TIMING OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO BE MIXED IN AT TIMES WITH MVFR SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT. LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY AT THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED.  STRONGEST WINDS CAPE AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS BACK W AND DIMINISH ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL-
CRAFT THRESHOLDS UNDER LIGHT W-WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...AND
ONTO THURSDAY NIGHT... LOOKS LIKE GOOD BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SAT INTO
  SUNDAY ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS***

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN
EASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS.  GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH
THOUGH TO KEEP WINDS SPEEDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT
EXPECTED.  WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING
OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS
MOST WATERS ARE PRETTY MUCH A SLAM DUNK LATE SAT INTO SUN.  IN
FACT...DECENT CHANCE IN A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH 20
FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON THE EXACT
TRACK/INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...BUT APPEARS THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF A HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT.  A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE LATE SAT INTO SUN.
NONETHELESS...THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING/EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.  THE CONCERN IS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HIGH
TIDE ON SUNDAY.  IF WE END UP REALIZING 20 FOOT SEAS OVER THE OPEN
OCEAN AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...THERE COULD BE
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION.  SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS
WOULD BE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS
SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET HARBOR.  AGAIN...IT WILL DEPEND ON
EXACT WIND SPEEDS/WAVE HEIGHTS OUT OVER THE OCEAN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...SIPPRELL/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KGYX 292238
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
638 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR THE CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND
SNOW. WHILE AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO PASS MOSTLY OUT TO SEA...SOME
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 630 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST A BIT THIS EVENING MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING OF THE
BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. THE HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON IT
AND HAVE USED IT/S TIMING. THE BAND SHOULD SPEED UP A BIT AND EXIT
THE COAST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUSLY...

SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO STRETCH SW ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE
VLY AND THEN INTO CENTRAL NY. SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK MORE QUICKLY
TO THE E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE CWA THRU LATE THIS AFT AND DURING EARLY
EVENING. THE SHRA SHOULD CLEAR ALL BUT THE MID-COAST BY7 AROUND
00Z...AND SHOULD EXIT THERE BY 02Z.

WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR OUT ANY LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG LINGERING ALONG THE COAST...AND SKIES SHOULD AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS....WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
IN THE MTNS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A WEAK 500MB RIDGE PASSE4S THRU THE CWA EARLY AM...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A CLUSTER OF MID-HIGH EARLY...SHOULD SEE SFC HIGH
BUILD IN FROM THE W AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. WILL SEE
UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND DOWNSLOPE CLEARING DURING THE DAY....WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS DROP OFF FOR A MAINLY CLEAR AND
CALM THU NIGHT...SO TEMPS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED REVOLVES AROUND POWERFUL LOW PRES
SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND.

A POTENT S/WV WILL CARVE OUT A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF OVER THE ERN
CONUS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH DIGGING A -3 TO -5 SD
CLOSED LOW THRU THE CAROLINAS SAT. THIS EXITS THE COAST AND FUELS
A POWERFUL LOW PRES OVER THE WATERS THAT RACES NEWD. THE FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS A LEAD S/WV THAT IS FORECAST TO TRIGGER
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST PRIOR TO THE MAIN UPPER TROF ARRIVING
OVER EAST COAST. THE RESULT IS A PUSH EWD OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WHICH KEEPS THE SECOND SFC LOW FARTHER OUT TO SEA FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE CLOSED NATURE OF THE UPPER
LEVELS THIS SFC LOW WILL TRY AND TUCK BACK TOWARDS THE COAST WITH
TIME...SO COASTAL ME IS NOT LEFT HIGH AND DRY. INCREASING
LONGITUDE WILL MEAN INCREASING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING QPF IN THIS
SET UP. PARTS OF NH COULD SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PCPN...WHILE THE PENOBSCOT BAY REGION SEES CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

ATTM A MULTI MODEL BLEND SEEMS PRUDENT...THOUGH THE INDIVIDUAL
PIECES OF GUIDANCE ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH A NEAR MISS. THE
RESULTING QPF FORECAST IS AROUND 0.10 INCHES FOR THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...INCREASING TO NEAR A HALF INCH AROUND KPWM TO
JACKMAN...AND FINALLY 0.75 INCHES NEAR KRKD. EXAMINING TEMP
PROFILES OF THE VARIOUS MODELS DOES GIVE SUPPORT TO A WIDESPREAD
CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNFL OF
THE SEASON. THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRES AND LEAD S/WV HEADING
OUT TO SEA WILL HELP TO MITIGATE WAA BRINGING IN ABOVE FREEZING
AIR ALOFT. MODEL FORECASTS DO WARM SOME ALOFT...BUT AS 925 MB
TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -4 C ALONG THE COAST...THAT SHOULD STAY ALL OR
MOSTLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO SAT NIGHT AND SUN. BASED ON
THAT FORECAST ALOFT AND EXPECTED HOURLY TEMPS...THE GRIDS REFLECT
3-5 INCHES OF SNFL POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL ME AND ESPECIALLY THE
MIDCOAST. CLOSER TO KPWM LESS THAN AN INCH IS POSSIBLE...WITH A
DUSTING TO JUST A FEW FLAKES ELSEWHERE.

ALSO OF NOTE ARE THE WIND PROFILES FROM THE VARIOUS FORECAST
MODELS. ATTM THE GFS AND CMC ARE THE MOST BULLISH GUIDANCE. BASED
ON THE WIND ALOFT AND FORECAST MIXED LAYER...GUSTS GREATER THAN 40
KTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. OVER THE OUTER WATERS EVEN STRONGER GUSTS
IN THE 50-60 KT RANGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS TEMPERED
SLIGHTLY...WITH OVERLAND GUSTS MORE IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE. GIVEN
THE DIFFICULTY IN REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA IN MOST
EVENTS THE ECMWF WAS WEIGHTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE BLEND. EVEN
SO THE FORECAST REFLECTS 35-45 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE COAST...WITH
NEAR STORM FORCE OVER THE WATERS.

THE MAIN POINT IS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT AT LEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR THE FORECAST TO CHANGE IN EITHER
DIRECTION...INCLUDING FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND LESS PCPN.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS THE PREFERRED
FORECAST METHOD. HIGH PRES AND RIDING ALOFT GENERALLY IN CONTROL
THRU MIDWEEK. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FROM THE COLDER THAN
NORMAL WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
ONCE A COLD FRONT PASSES THRU AROUND 00Z. COULD SEE SOME FOG
ADVECT IN FROM THE RIVER AT KLEB. VFR THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THU
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD FRI. LOW PRES GATHERS
STRENGTH S OF THE AREA ON SAT...WITH CLOUDS SPREADING NWD. MVFR
AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE INTO THE AREA. SNFL IS POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SAT INTO SUN. ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL ME...BUT IFR VSBYS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
IN ANY SNOW. GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED LATE SUN THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH WILL SEE A BRIEF SURGE IN W-NW WINDS
OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
LVLS THRU THU NIGHT.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS GOING TO GATHER STRENGTH
INTO THE WEEKEND. ATTM A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO
PASS THRU OR NEAR THE GULF OF ME. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ATTM...BUT GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE.
SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO NEAR 20 FT IN THIS SCENARIO. WINDS AND
SEAS THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES
TAKES CONTROL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
LONG TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 292238
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
638 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR THE CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND
SNOW. WHILE AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO PASS MOSTLY OUT TO SEA...SOME
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 630 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST A BIT THIS EVENING MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING OF THE
BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. THE HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON IT
AND HAVE USED IT/S TIMING. THE BAND SHOULD SPEED UP A BIT AND EXIT
THE COAST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUSLY...

SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO STRETCH SW ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE
VLY AND THEN INTO CENTRAL NY. SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK MORE QUICKLY
TO THE E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE CWA THRU LATE THIS AFT AND DURING EARLY
EVENING. THE SHRA SHOULD CLEAR ALL BUT THE MID-COAST BY7 AROUND
00Z...AND SHOULD EXIT THERE BY 02Z.

WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR OUT ANY LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG LINGERING ALONG THE COAST...AND SKIES SHOULD AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS....WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
IN THE MTNS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A WEAK 500MB RIDGE PASSE4S THRU THE CWA EARLY AM...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A CLUSTER OF MID-HIGH EARLY...SHOULD SEE SFC HIGH
BUILD IN FROM THE W AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. WILL SEE
UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND DOWNSLOPE CLEARING DURING THE DAY....WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS DROP OFF FOR A MAINLY CLEAR AND
CALM THU NIGHT...SO TEMPS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED REVOLVES AROUND POWERFUL LOW PRES
SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND.

A POTENT S/WV WILL CARVE OUT A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF OVER THE ERN
CONUS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH DIGGING A -3 TO -5 SD
CLOSED LOW THRU THE CAROLINAS SAT. THIS EXITS THE COAST AND FUELS
A POWERFUL LOW PRES OVER THE WATERS THAT RACES NEWD. THE FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS A LEAD S/WV THAT IS FORECAST TO TRIGGER
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST PRIOR TO THE MAIN UPPER TROF ARRIVING
OVER EAST COAST. THE RESULT IS A PUSH EWD OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WHICH KEEPS THE SECOND SFC LOW FARTHER OUT TO SEA FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE CLOSED NATURE OF THE UPPER
LEVELS THIS SFC LOW WILL TRY AND TUCK BACK TOWARDS THE COAST WITH
TIME...SO COASTAL ME IS NOT LEFT HIGH AND DRY. INCREASING
LONGITUDE WILL MEAN INCREASING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING QPF IN THIS
SET UP. PARTS OF NH COULD SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PCPN...WHILE THE PENOBSCOT BAY REGION SEES CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

ATTM A MULTI MODEL BLEND SEEMS PRUDENT...THOUGH THE INDIVIDUAL
PIECES OF GUIDANCE ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH A NEAR MISS. THE
RESULTING QPF FORECAST IS AROUND 0.10 INCHES FOR THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...INCREASING TO NEAR A HALF INCH AROUND KPWM TO
JACKMAN...AND FINALLY 0.75 INCHES NEAR KRKD. EXAMINING TEMP
PROFILES OF THE VARIOUS MODELS DOES GIVE SUPPORT TO A WIDESPREAD
CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNFL OF
THE SEASON. THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRES AND LEAD S/WV HEADING
OUT TO SEA WILL HELP TO MITIGATE WAA BRINGING IN ABOVE FREEZING
AIR ALOFT. MODEL FORECASTS DO WARM SOME ALOFT...BUT AS 925 MB
TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -4 C ALONG THE COAST...THAT SHOULD STAY ALL OR
MOSTLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO SAT NIGHT AND SUN. BASED ON
THAT FORECAST ALOFT AND EXPECTED HOURLY TEMPS...THE GRIDS REFLECT
3-5 INCHES OF SNFL POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL ME AND ESPECIALLY THE
MIDCOAST. CLOSER TO KPWM LESS THAN AN INCH IS POSSIBLE...WITH A
DUSTING TO JUST A FEW FLAKES ELSEWHERE.

ALSO OF NOTE ARE THE WIND PROFILES FROM THE VARIOUS FORECAST
MODELS. ATTM THE GFS AND CMC ARE THE MOST BULLISH GUIDANCE. BASED
ON THE WIND ALOFT AND FORECAST MIXED LAYER...GUSTS GREATER THAN 40
KTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. OVER THE OUTER WATERS EVEN STRONGER GUSTS
IN THE 50-60 KT RANGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS TEMPERED
SLIGHTLY...WITH OVERLAND GUSTS MORE IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE. GIVEN
THE DIFFICULTY IN REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA IN MOST
EVENTS THE ECMWF WAS WEIGHTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE BLEND. EVEN
SO THE FORECAST REFLECTS 35-45 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE COAST...WITH
NEAR STORM FORCE OVER THE WATERS.

THE MAIN POINT IS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT AT LEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR THE FORECAST TO CHANGE IN EITHER
DIRECTION...INCLUDING FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND LESS PCPN.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS THE PREFERRED
FORECAST METHOD. HIGH PRES AND RIDING ALOFT GENERALLY IN CONTROL
THRU MIDWEEK. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FROM THE COLDER THAN
NORMAL WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
ONCE A COLD FRONT PASSES THRU AROUND 00Z. COULD SEE SOME FOG
ADVECT IN FROM THE RIVER AT KLEB. VFR THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THU
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD FRI. LOW PRES GATHERS
STRENGTH S OF THE AREA ON SAT...WITH CLOUDS SPREADING NWD. MVFR
AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE INTO THE AREA. SNFL IS POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SAT INTO SUN. ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL ME...BUT IFR VSBYS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
IN ANY SNOW. GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED LATE SUN THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH WILL SEE A BRIEF SURGE IN W-NW WINDS
OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
LVLS THRU THU NIGHT.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS GOING TO GATHER STRENGTH
INTO THE WEEKEND. ATTM A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO
PASS THRU OR NEAR THE GULF OF ME. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ATTM...BUT GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE.
SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO NEAR 20 FT IN THIS SCENARIO. WINDS AND
SEAS THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES
TAKES CONTROL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
LONG TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KBOX 292211
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
611 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS CONCLUDE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
SEASONABLE AND DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY DELIVER A GLANCING
BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS WITH
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

610 PM UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT WAS NOW LOCATED ACROSS COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND INTO
SOUTHEAST MA.  THERE ALSO WAS CURRENTLY A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NH AND INTO WESTERN MA EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE
SHOWERS WERE ACTUALLY A BIT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHERE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WAS PROVIDING SOME MID LEVEL LIFT.  THIS BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL NOT LAST MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS IN A GIVEN LOCATION.  THE
SHOWERS SHOULD REACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 8 AND 10 PM...FINALLY
EXITING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AFTER 2 OR 3 AM.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY A TRACE TO LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH.

MAIN TROUGH AXIS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LIKELY
BLANKET OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS MILD TOWARDS SHORES WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-40S.
ELSEWHERE...GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED W TO E AS W-WINDS DRIVE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. COOLEST CONDITIONS N AND W YET
WINDS /MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER/ WILL LIKELY LIMIT
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD E. SUBSIDENCE AND SINKING AIR IN
CONTROL OF THE REGIONS WEATHER. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO
BUILD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS /H85 JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK/
EXPECT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX-
DOWN /DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-30S/ AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SCATTERED
CUMULUS DECK AROUND 5-6 KFT.

HIGHS AROUND THE 50S EXPECTED WHICH IS JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. COLD
AIRMASS BELOW FREEZING REMAINS ALOFT. A GOOD CASE FOR EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...THAT IS IF CLOUDS DO NOT BECOME AN ISSUE.

CONSIDERING DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-30S ON THURSDAY...IT IS
POSSIBLE LOCATIONS COULD COOL BELOW THE CROSSOVER THRESHOLD IF THE
CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT AND WE ARE ALLOWED TO RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY.
BUT BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH WHICH WEAK IMPULSES WILL GLIDE...
THERE IS ALWAYS THAT POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEMENT OF MID-LEVEL LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE YIELDING A BLANKETING CLOUD BASE.

IF CONDITIONS REMAIN CLEAR...THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SPECULATE
THAT SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP WHEREVER SOILS ARE SATURATED
/I.E. SWAMPY BOGS/. LOWS WOULD BOTTOM DOWN AROUND THE MID-30S...LOW-
30S FOR THOSE AREAS THAT RADIATE. WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE
SHORES. BUT WILL GO CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS FORECAST CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS AND HOLD WITH LOWS AROUND THE
UPPER-30S. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST / FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL ON FRIDAY
* GLANCING BLOW FAVORED SAT/EARLY SUN BUT HIGHER IMPACT POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS LATE SAT/SUN ESP CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUE AND WED

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

AN ENLONGATED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL RESULT
IN A RATHER CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS.  A SPOT SHOWER AND
PERHAPS EVEN SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY.  HIGHS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW OVER THIS TIME.  ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY PLOTS SHOW THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING THE
EVENTUAL STORM IS STILL NEAR THE ARCTIC CIRCLE.  THIS LEAVES PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK/STRENGTH AND IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH THAT SAID...CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A GLANCING BLOW AND
NOT A DIRECT HIT FOR OUR REGION.  THE BIGGEST CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS
FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  THERE ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN STORM
FORMATION.  INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ENLONGATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OR EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO ONE STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A BIG CAVEAT IS THAT THIS EVENT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED BETWEEN 72 AND
96 HOUR OUT...WHICH IS QUITE A BIT OF TIME IN THE MODEL WORLD.  IF
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED...THE STORM
WILL INTENSIFY EARLIER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST.  WHILE THIS IS A
LOWER PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT...ITS CERTAINLY IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES.  WHAT EVER HAPPENS...WE CAN SAY THAT EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT THAN THE INTERIOR.

PTYPE AND TIMING...

A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD REACHES.  INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN OR JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.  IN FACT...MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF
THE TRACK SHIFTS WEST AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN...DYNAMIC COOLING WOULD CHANGE
PTYPE TO SNOW AT LEAST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  AGAIN...BASED ON
EXPECTED TRACK...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY...BUT
STILL CAN/T BE RULED OUT. WHAT EVER HAPPENS...MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE REGION BY MID MORNING ON SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS...

STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP.  EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SUN AS MIXING INCREASES.  ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM MAY SEE A PERIOD
OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  GIVEN MANY TREES STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON
THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE
ENHANCED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.  A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED WITH
SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY TUE OR
WED. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS RESULTING IN
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.  SHOULD SEE ANY LEFT
OVER LOW CLOUDS SCOUR OUT BY 3Z.  IN ADDITION...A BAND OF SHOWERS
WAS WORKING THROUGH INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING.  THESE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT LAST LONG IN A GIVEN LOCATION AND
EXIT THE CAPE/NANTUCKET BY 6 OR 7Z.

THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W-WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-5 KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
TERMINALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS. SKC. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR TO START BUT
ONSHORE FLOW MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING FRI AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT.  A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON UNCERTAINTY OF
TRACK/STRENGTH AND TIMING OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO BE MIXED IN AT TIMES WITH MVFR SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT. LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY AT THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED.  STRONGEST WINDS CAPE AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS BACK W AND DIMINISH ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL-
CRAFT THRESHOLDS UNDER LIGHT W-WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...AND
ONTO THURSDAY NIGHT... LOOKS LIKE GOOD BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SAT INTO
  SUNDAY ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS***

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN
EASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS.  GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH
THOUGH TO KEEP WINDS SPEEDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT
EXPECTED.  WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING
OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS
MOST WATERS ARE PRETTY MUCH A SLAM DUNK LATE SAT INTO SUN.  IN
FACT...DECENT CHANCE IN A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH 20
FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON THE EXACT
TRACK/INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...BUT APPEARS THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF A HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT.  A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE LATE SAT INTO SUN.
NONETHELESS...THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING/EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.  THE CONCERN IS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HIGH
TIDE ON SUNDAY.  IF WE END UP REALIZING 20 FOOT SEAS OVER THE OPEN
OCEAN AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...THERE COULD BE
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION.  SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS
WOULD BE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS
SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET HARBOR.  AGAIN...IT WILL DEPEND ON
EXACT WIND SPEEDS/WAVE HEIGHTS OUT OVER THE OCEAN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...SIPPRELL/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 292006
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS CONCLUDE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
SEASONABLE AND DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY DELIVER A GLANCING
BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS WITH
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
230 PM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH SHOWERY WEATHER AND
THICKER CLOUDS IN TOW. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO WARM BENEATH THE
THIN VEIL OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SW-FLOW CONTINUES TO GUST
IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THIS
EVENING IS THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE
THAT BEING THE STRETCHED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. WITH CONDITIONS
WARMING ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND BENEATH A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ECHO OVERNIGHT FORECASTERS THOUGHTS CONCERNING THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS SE NEW
ENGLAND. NOTHING SEVERE.

ASIDE...EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING BENEATH FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT. FEEL THE HIGH-RES WRF GUIDANCE AND HRRR HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRESENT SITUATION...ALBEIT SLIGHT DIFFERENCES.
COULD SEE THE LINE OF SHOWERS BECOME DIFFUSE WITH ITS TRACK TO THE
S AND E. SPECULATE THIS TO BE CONSEQUENTIAL OF STRETCHED MID-LEVEL
ENERGY AND PERHAPS THE COLD FRONT BECOMING TOO SEPARATED FROM ITS
PARENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ALSO PERHAPS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE TOWARDS A BETTER MOIST-INSTABILITY AXIS ACTIVITY ERUPTS
THAT USURPS ACTIVITY TO THE W. ALL SORTS OF FACTORS...BUT ASIDE
NOT A BIG DEAL BUT JUST A SWEEPING WET-WEATHER MAKER.

ALREADY 72-DEGREES HERE AT THE TAUNTON WFO. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WARMING INTO THE MID-70S FOR S/SE NEW ENGLAND. A BLEND
OF THE RAP APPEARS GOOD ENOUGH WITH REGARDS TO 2M TEMPERATURES
THOUGH NOT HANDLING THE WARM-FRONT ALL THAT WELL.

TONIGHT...

MAIN TROUGH AXIS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGER REARWARD ACROSS S- AND
E-PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

LIKELY BLANKET OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AND WET WEATHER WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS MILD TOWARDS SHORES WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-40S.
ELSEWHERE...GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED W TO E AS W-WINDS DRIVE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. COOLEST CONDITIONS N AND W YET
WINDS /MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER/ WILL LIKELY LIMIT
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD E. SUBSIDENCE AND SINKING AIR IN
CONTROL OF THE REGIONS WEATHER. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO
BUILD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS /H85 JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK/
EXPECT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX-
DOWN /DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-30S/ AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SCATTERED
CUMULUS DECK AROUND 5-6 KFT.

HIGHS AROUND THE 50S EXPECTED WHICH IS JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. COLD
AIRMASS BELOW FREEZING REMAINS ALOFT. A GOOD CASE FOR EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...THAT IS IF CLOUDS DO NOT BECOME AN ISSUE.

CONSIDERING DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-30S ON THURSDAY...IT IS
POSSIBLE LOCATIONS COULD COOL BELOW THE CROSSOVER THRESHOLD IF THE
CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT AND WE ARE ALLOWED TO RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY.
BUT BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH WHICH WEAK IMPULSES WILL GLIDE...
THERE IS ALWAYS THAT POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEMENT OF MID-LEVEL LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE YIELDING A BLANKETING CLOUD BASE.

IF CONDITIONS REMAIN CLEAR...THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SPECULATE
THAT SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP WHEREVER SOILS ARE SATURATED
/I.E. SWAMPY BOGS/. LOWS WOULD BOTTOM DOWN AROUND THE MID-30S...LOW-
30S FOR THOSE AREAS THAT RADIATE. WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE
SHORES. BUT WILL GO CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS FORECAST CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS AND HOLD WITH LOWS AROUND THE
UPPER-30S. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST / FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL ON FRIDAY
* GLANCING BLOW FAVORED SAT/EARLY SUN BUT HIGHER IMPACT POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS LATE SAT/SUN ESP CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUE AND WED

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

AN ENLONGATED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL RESULT
IN A RATHER CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS.  A SPOT SHOWER AND
PERHAPS EVEN SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY.  HIGHS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW OVER THIS TIME.  ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY PLOTS SHOW THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING THE
EVENTUAL STORM IS STILL NEAR THE ARCTIC CIRCLE.  THIS LEAVES PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK/STRENGTH AND IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH THAT SAID...CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A GLANCING BLOW AND
NOT A DIRECT HIT FOR OUR REGION.  THE BIGGEST CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS
FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  THERE ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN STORM
FORMATION.  INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ENLONGATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OR EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO ONE STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A BIG CAVEAT IS THAT THIS EVENT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED BETWEEN 72 AND
96 HOUR OUT...WHICH IS QUITE A BIT OF TIME IN THE MODEL WORLD.  IF
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED...THE STORM
WILL INTENSIFY EARLIER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST.  WHILE THIS IS A
LOWER PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT...ITS CERTAINLY IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES.  WHAT EVER HAPPENS...WE CAN SAY THAT EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT THAN THE INTERIOR.

PTYPE AND TIMING...

A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD REACHES.  INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN OR JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.  IN FACT...MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF
THE TRACK SHIFTS WEST AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN...DYNAMIC COOLING WOULD CHANGE
PTYPE TO SNOW AT LEAST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  AGAIN...BASED ON
EXPECTED TRACK ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY...BUT
STILL CAN/T BE RULED OUT. WHAT EVER HAPPENS...MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE REGION BY MID MORNING ON SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS...

STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP.  EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SUN AS MIXING INCREASES.  ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM MAY SEE A PERIOD
OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  GIVEN MANY TREES STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON
THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE
ENHANCED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.  A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED WITH
SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY TUE OR
WED. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOW-END VFR/MVFR WITH LINE OF -RA EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THE TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF WHICH SW-WINDS PREVAIL
GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KTS ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE. AN ISOLATED
TSRA IS POSSIBLE OVER SE-TERMINALS...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PREVAIL IN TAF.

TONIGHT...WINDS BACK W BEHIND THE LINE...DIMINISHING. MAINLY VFR.
LOW-END VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH -RA LINGER OVER S AND E TERMINALS INTO
MIDNIGHT...IMPROVING AFTER AS ACTIVITY PUSHES OFFSHORE.

THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W-WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-5 KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
TERMINALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS. SKC. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR TO START BUT
ONSHORE FLOW MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING FRI AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT.  A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON UNCERTAINTY OF
TRACK/STRENGTH AND TIMING OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO BE MIXED IN AT TIMES WITH MVFR SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT. LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY AT THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED.  STRONGEST WINDS CAPE AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS STILL AN ISSUE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS AND WILL REMAIN SO AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK W AND DIMINISH ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE
SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL-CRAFT THRESHOLDS UNDER LIGHT
W-WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...AND ONTO THURSDAY NIGHT...
LOOKS LIKE GOOD BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SAT INTO
  SUNDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS***

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN
EASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS.  GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH
THOUGH TO KEEP WINDS SPEEDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT
EXPECTED.  WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING
OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS
MOST WATERS ARE PRETTY MUCH A SLAM DUNK LATE SAT INTO SUN.  IN
FACT...DECENT CHANCE IN A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH 20
FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS.  EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON THE EXACT TRACK/INTENSITY OF COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE...BUT APPEARS THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF A HIGH IMPACT
MARINE EVENT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE NOT HIGH LATE SAT INTO SUN...BUT THERE
IS EVEN A LOW PROBABILITY FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.  THE CONCERN
IS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY.  IF WE END UP
REALIZING 20 FOOT SEAS OVER THE OPEN OCEAN AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
EROSION.  SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS WOULD BE SALISBURY AND PLUM
ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET
HARBOR.  AGAIN...IT WILL DEPEND ON EXACT WIND SPEEDS/WAVE HEIGHTS
OUT OVER THE OCEAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY HIGH TIDE
CYCLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KGYX 291942
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
342 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR THE CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND
SNOW. WHILE AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO PASS MOSTLY OUT TO SEA...SOME
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO STRETCH SW ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE
VLY AND THEN INTO CENTRAL NY. SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK MORE QUICKLY
TO THE E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE CWA THRU LATE THIS AFT AND DURING EARLY
EVENING. THE SHRA SHOULD CLEAR ALL BUT THE MID-COAST BY7 AROUND
00Z...AND SHOULD EXIT THERE BY 02Z.

WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR OUT ANY LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG LINGERING ALONG THE COAST...AND SKIES SHOULD AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS....WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
IN THE MTNS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A WEAK 500MB RIDGE PASSE4S THRU THE CWA EARLY AM...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A CLUSTER OF MID-HIGH EARLY...SHOULD SEE SFC HIGH
BUILD IN FROM THE W AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. WILL SEE
UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND DOWNSLOPE CLEARING DURING THE DAY....WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS DROP OFF FOR A MAINLY CLEAR AND
CALM THU NIGHT...SO TEMPS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED REVOLVES AROUND POWERFUL LOW PRES
SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND.

A POTENT S/WV WILL CARVE OUT A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF OVER THE ERN
CONUS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH DIGGING A -3 TO -5 SD
CLOSED LOW THRU THE CAROLINAS SAT. THIS EXITS THE COAST AND FUELS
A POWERFUL LOW PRES OVER THE WATERS THAT RACES NEWD. THE FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS A LEAD S/WV THAT IS FORECAST TO TRIGGER
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST PRIOR TO THE MAIN UPPER TROF ARRIVING
OVER EAST COAST. THE RESULT IS A PUSH EWD OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WHICH KEEPS THE SECOND SFC LOW FARTHER OUT TO SEA FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE CLOSED NATURE OF THE UPPER
LEVELS THIS SFC LOW WILL TRY AND TUCK BACK TOWARDS THE COAST WITH
TIME...SO COASTAL ME IS NOT LEFT HIGH AND DRY. INCREASING
LONGITUDE WILL MEAN INCREASING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING QPF IN THIS
SET UP. PARTS OF NH COULD SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PCPN...WHILE THE PENOBSCOT BAY REGION SEES CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

ATTM A MULTI MODEL BLEND SEEMS PRUDENT...THOUGH THE INDIVIDUAL
PIECES OF GUIDANCE ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH A NEAR MISS. THE
RESULTING QPF FORECAST IS AROUND 0.10 INCHES FOR THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...INCREASING TO NEAR A HALF INCH AROUND KPWM TO
JACKMAN...AND FINALLY 0.75 INCHES NEAR KRKD. EXAMINING TEMP
PROFILES OF THE VARIOUS MODELS DOES GIVE SUPPORT TO A WIDESPREAD
CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNFL OF
THE SEASON. THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRES AND LEAD S/WV HEADING
OUT TO SEA WILL HELP TO MITIGATE WAA BRINGING IN ABOVE FREEZING
AIR ALOFT. MODEL FORECASTS DO WARM SOME ALOFT...BUT AS 925 MB
TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -4 C ALONG THE COAST...THAT SHOULD STAY ALL OR
MOSTLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO SAT NIGHT AND SUN. BASED ON
THAT FORECAST ALOFT AND EXPECTED HOURLY TEMPS...THE GRIDS REFLECT
3-5 INCHES OF SNFL POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL ME AND ESPECIALLY THE
MIDCOAST. CLOSER TO KPWM LESS THAN AN INCH IS POSSIBLE...WITH A
DUSTING TO JUST A FEW FLAKES ELSEWHERE.

ALSO OF NOTE ARE THE WIND PROFILES FROM THE VARIOUS FORECAST
MODELS. ATTM THE GFS AND CMC ARE THE MOST BULLISH GUIDANCE. BASED
ON THE WIND ALOFT AND FORECAST MIXED LAYER...GUSTS GREATER THAN 40
KTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. OVER THE OUTER WATERS EVEN STRONGER GUSTS
IN THE 50-60 KT RANGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS TEMPERED
SLIGHTLY...WITH OVERLAND GUSTS MORE IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE. GIVEN
THE DIFFICULTY IN REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA IN MOST
EVENTS THE ECMWF WAS WEIGHTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE BLEND. EVEN
SO THE FORECAST REFLECTS 35-45 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE COAST...WITH
NEAR STORM FORCE OVER THE WATERS.

THE MAIN POINT IS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT AT LEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR THE FORECAST TO CHANGE IN EITHER
DIRECTION...INCLUDING FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND LESS PCPN.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS THE PREFERRED
FORECAST METHOD. HIGH PRES AND RIDING ALOFT GENERALLY IN CONTROL
THRU MIDWEEK. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FROM THE COLDER THAN
NORMAL WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
ONCE A COLD FRONT PASSES THRU AROUND 00Z. COULD SEE SOME FOG
ADVECT IN FROM THE RIVER AT KLEB. VFR THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THU
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD FRI. LOW PRES GATHERS
STRENGTH S OF THE AREA ON SAT...WITH CLOUDS SPREADING NWD. MVFR
AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE INTO THE AREA. SNFL IS POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SAT INTO SUN. ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL ME...BUT IFR VSBYS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
IN ANY SNOW. GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED LATE SUN THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH WILL SEE A BRIEF SURGE IN W-NW WINDS
OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
LVLS THRU THU NIGHT.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS GOING TO GATHER STRENGTH
INTO THE WEEKEND. ATTM A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO
PASS THRU OR NEAR THE GULF OF ME. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ATTM...BUT GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE.
SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO NEAR 20 FT IN THIS SCENARIO. WINDS AND
SEAS THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES
TAKES CONTROL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291842
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
242 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS CONCLUDE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
SEASONABLE AND DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM OFF THE CAROLINAS
WILL PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN USA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

230 PM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH SHOWERY WEATHER AND
THICKER CLOUDS IN TOW. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO WARM BENEATH THE
THIN VEIL OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SW-FLOW CONTINUES TO GUST
IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THIS
EVENING IS THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE
THAT BEING THE STRETCHED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. WITH CONDITIONS
WARMING ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND BENEATH A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ECHO OVERNIGHT FORECASTERS THOUGHTS CONCERNING THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS SE NEW
ENGLAND. NOTHING SEVERE.

ASIDE...EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING BENEATH FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT. FEEL THE HIGH-RES WRF GUIDANCE AND HRRR HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRESENT SITUATION...ALBEIT SLIGHT DIFFERENCES.
COULD SEE THE LINE OF SHOWERS BECOME DIFFUSE WITH ITS TRACK TO THE
S AND E. SPECULATE THIS TO BE CONSEQUENTIAL OF STRETCHED MID-LEVEL
ENERGY AND PERHAPS THE COLD FRONT BECOMING TOO SEPARATED FROM ITS
PARENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ALSO PERHAPS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE TOWARDS A BETTER MOIST-INSTABILITY AXIS ACTIVITY ERUPTS
THAT USURPS ACTIVITY TO THE W. ALL SORTS OF FACTORS...BUT ASIDE
NOT A BIG DEAL BUT JUST A SWEEPING WET-WEATHER MAKER.

ALREADY 72-DEGREES HERE AT THE TAUNTON WFO. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WARMING INTO THE MID-70S FOR S/SE NEW ENGLAND. A BLEND
OF THE RAP APPEARS GOOD ENOUGH WITH REGARDS TO 2M TEMPERATURES
THOUGH NOT HANDLING THE WARM-FRONT ALL THAT WELL.

TONIGHT...

MAIN TROUGH AXIS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGER REARWARD ACROSS S- AND
E-PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

LIKELY BLANKET OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AND WET WEATHER WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS MILD TOWARDS SHORES WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-40S.
ELSEWHERE...GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED W TO E AS W-WINDS DRIVE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. COOLEST CONDITIONS N AND W YET
WINDS /MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER/ WILL LIKELY LIMIT
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD E. SUBSIDENCE AND SINKING AIR IN
CONTROL OF THE REGIONS WEATHER. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO
BUILD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS /H85 JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK/
EXPECT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX-
DOWN /DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-30S/ AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SCATTERED
CUMULUS DECK AROUND 5-6 KFT.

HIGHS AROUND THE 50S EXPECTED WHICH IS JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. COLD
AIRMASS BELOW FREEZING REMAINS ALOFT. A GOOD CASE FOR EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...THAT IS IF CLOUDS DO NOT BECOME AN ISSUE.

CONSIDERING DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-30S ON THURSDAY...IT IS
POSSIBLE LOCATIONS COULD COOL BELOW THE CROSSOVER THRESHOLD IF THE
CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT AND WE ARE ALLOWED TO RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY.
BUT BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH WHICH WEAK IMPULSES WILL GLIDE...
THERE IS ALWAYS THAT POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEMENT OF MID-LEVEL LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE YIELDING A BLANKETING CLOUD BASE.

IF CONDITIONS REMAIN CLEAR...THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SPECULATE
THAT SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP WHEREVER SOILS ARE SATURATED
/I.E. SWAMPY BOGS/. LOWS WOULD BOTTOM DOWN AROUND THE MID-30S...LOW-
30S FOR THOSE AREAS THAT RADIATE. WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE
SHORES. BUT WILL GO CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS FORECAST CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS AND HOLD WITH LOWS AROUND THE
UPPER-30S. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST / FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*** LONG-TERM DISCUSSION FROM OVERNIGHT SHIFT ***
*** FORECAST DISCUSSION STILL UNDER DEVELOPMENT ***

BIG PICTURE...

29/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT REGARDING THE
DETAILS. THE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL BE DRIVEN BY A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED...ANOMALOUS PATTERN. THE CORE OF AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE WAS ABOUT 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE
CORE OF THE 500 MB LOW WAS NEARLY 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL.

THIS MEANS WE NEED TO KEEP THE GUIDANCE DETAILS IN PERSPECTIVE...
AS MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT HANDLE EXTREME EVENTS PERFECTLY. IT IS
ENCOURAGING TO SEE THE GUIDANCE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THOUGH.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS MEAN SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER
SOME OF THE MINOR DIFFERENCES. WE EXPECT BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS NOW THAT THE ENERGY WHICH WILL PRODUCE THIS COASTAL
STORM WILL BE OVER LAND AND BETTER SAMPLED.

THE 29/00 ECMWF STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST AND QUICKER
WITH IT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THAT SAID...ITS TRACK IS STILL EAST
OF 70W LONGITUDE AS IT PASSES BY OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD MEAN THE
GREATEST EFFECTS SHOULD BE FELT TOWARD THE COASTS.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...COOLING ALOFT WITH WEAK RIDGING NEAR
THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW OVER US MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND TURNS OUR WIND
EAST OR NORTHEAST.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THIS WILL BE THE MAIN PERIOD OF RISK FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. UPPER JET FROM CENTRAL CANADA FEEDS AROUND THIS UPPER
TROUGH WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPING. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE TRACK...WHICH WILL BE A
KEY INGREDIENT TO DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE.

CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...WITH
GREATEST RISK ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND DIMINISHING POPS
FARTHER NORTHWEST. WILL REFLECT THIS WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST
GRADING TO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MUCH OF THIS TIME SHOULD BE RAIN. WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW SATURDAY NIGHT...THE RESULT
WILL BE SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
LINGERING CLOUDS BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOW-END VFR/MVFR WITH LINE OF -RA EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THE TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF WHICH SW-WINDS PREVAIL
GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KTS ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE. AN ISOLATED
TSRA IS POSSIBLE OVER SE-TERMINALS...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PREVAIL IN TAF.

TONIGHT...WINDS BACK W BEHIND THE LINE...DIMINISHING. MAINLY VFR.
LOW-END VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH -RA LINGER OVER S AND E TERMINALS INTO
MIDNIGHT...IMPROVING AFTER AS ACTIVITY PUSHES OFFSHORE.

THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W-WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-5 KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
TERMINALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS. SKC. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRENCE. CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR COASTAL PLAIN AND MVFR
NORTHWEST. COASTAL STORM PASSES BY LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ESPECIALLY KMHT-KORH-KBAF-KBDL.
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST 25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS INLAND AND 30 TO 40 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS STILL AN ISSUE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS AND WILL REMAIN SO AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK W AND DIMINISH ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE
SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL-CRAFT THRESHOLDS UNDER LIGHT
W-WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...AND ONTO THURSDAY NIGHT...
LOOKS LIKE GOOD BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTHWEST
WINDS THURSDAY BECOME NORTHEAST FRIDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS.
SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS AND MOVES UP THE COAST. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT TRACK AND TIMING...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SOLUTION
STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. AT LEAST
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS SATURDAY 25 TO 35 KNOTS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST 30 TO
40 KNOTS SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH/GALE WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291724
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
124 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRY...SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL
PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN USA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

130 PM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH SHOWERY WEATHER AND
THICKER CLOUDS IN TOW. FOG HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED BENEATH THE THIN
VEIL OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AS ITS TRANSPARENCY HAS ALLOWED
CONDITIONS TO WARM RESULTING IN THE WARM-FRONT TO PUSH N INTO NH
AND ME...AIDED BY SW-FLOW WHICH CONTINUES TO GUST IN EXCESS OF 25
MPH ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THIS
EVENING IS THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE
THAT BEING THE STRETCHED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. WITH CONDITIONS
WARMING ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND BENEATH A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ECHO THE OVERNIGHT FORECASTERS THOUGHTS CONCERNING
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGION. NOTHING SEVERE.

ASIDE...EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING BENEATH FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT. FEEL THE HIGH-RES WRF GUIDANCE AND HRRR HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRESENT SITUATION...ALBEIT SLIGHT DIFFERENCES.
COULD SEE THE LINE OF SHOWERS BECOME DIFFUSE WITH ITS TRACK TO THE
S AND E. SPECULATE THIS TO BE CONSEQUENTIAL OF STRETCHED MID-LEVEL
ENERGY AND PERHAPS THE COLD FRONT BECOMING TOO SEPARATED FROM ITS
PARENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ALSO PERHAPS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE TOWARDS A BETTER MOIST-INSTABILITY AXIS ACTIVITY ERUPTS
THAT USURPS ACTIVITY TO THE W. ALL SORTS OF FACTORS...BUT ASIDE
NOT A BIG DEAL BUT JUST A SWEEPING WET-WEATHER MAKER.

ALREADY 72-DEGREES HERE AT THE TAUNTON WFO. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WARMING INTO THE MID-70S FOR SE NEW ENGLAND. A BLEND OF
THE HRRR/RAP APPEARS SPOT-ON WITH REGARDS TO 2M TEMPERATURES
THOUGH NOT HANDLING THE WARM-FRONT ALL THAT WELL...AND HENCE THE
HEADACHES WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...
THE H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHES E...AND APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
BY EARLY THURSDAY. SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO
ACROSS E MA/RI/NE CT...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER THAT. H85 TEMPS
WILL STEADILY DROP OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER. BY
SUNRISE...H85 TEMPS FALL TO -2C ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TO +2C ACROSS
THE CAPE. WHILE NW WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EXPECT THEM TO STIR
ENOUGH NOT TOO ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING WHERE SKIES BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY WELL INLAND. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY...
SURFACE HIGH RIDGE BUILDS NE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY WHILE THE H5 TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES
TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE
50S...CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS BUT A GOOD 15 DEGREES OR SO LOWER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...

29/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT REGARDING THE
DETAILS. THE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL BE DRIVEN BY A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED...ANOMALOUS PATTERN. THE CORE OF AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE WAS ABOUT 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE
CORE OF THE 500 MB LOW WAS NEARLY 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL.

THIS MEANS WE NEED TO KEEP THE GUIDANCE DETAILS IN PERSPECTIVE...
AS MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT HANDLE EXTREME EVENTS PERFECTLY. IT IS
ENCOURAGING TO SEE THE GUIDANCE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THOUGH.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS MEAN SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER
SOME OF THE MINOR DIFFERENCES. WE EXPECT BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS NOW THAT THE ENERGY WHICH WILL PRODUCE THIS COASTAL
STORM WILL BE OVER LAND AND BETTER SAMPLED.

THE 29/00 ECMWF STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST AND QUICKER
WITH IT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THAT SAID...ITS TRACK IS STILL EAST
OF 70W LONGITUDE AS IT PASSES BY OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD MEAN THE
GREATEST EFFECTS SHOULD BE FELT TOWARD THE COASTS.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...COOLING ALOFT WITH WEAK RIDGING NEAR
THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW OVER US MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND TURNS OUR WIND
EAST OR NORTHEAST.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THIS WILL BE THE MAIN PERIOD OF RISK FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. UPPER JET FROM CENTRAL CANADA FEEDS AROUND THIS UPPER
TROUGH WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPING. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE TRACK...WHICH WILL BE A
KEY INGREDIENT TO DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE.

CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...WITH
GREATEST RISK ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND DIMINISHING POPS
FARTHER NORTHWEST. WILL REFLECT THIS WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST
GRADING TO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MUCH OF THIS TIME SHOULD BE RAIN. WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW SATURDAY NIGHT...THE RESULT
WILL BE SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
LINGERING CLOUDS BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOW-END VFR/MVFR WITH LINE OF -RA EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THE TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF WHICH SW-WINDS PREVAIL
GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KTS ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE. AN ISOLATED
TSRA IS POSSIBLE OVER SE-TERMINALS...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PREVAIL IN TAF.

TONIGHT...WINDS BACK W BEHIND THE LINE...DIMINISHING. MAINLY VFR.
LOW-END VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH -RA LINGER OVER S AND E TERMINALS INTO
MIDNIGHT...IMPROVING AFTER AS ACTIVITY PUSHES OFFSHORE.

THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W-WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-5 KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
TERMINALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS. SKC. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRENCE. CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR COASTAL PLAIN AND MVFR
NORTHWEST. COASTAL STORM PASSES BY LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ESPECIALLY KMHT-KORH-KBAF-KBDL.
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST 25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS INLAND AND 30 TO 40 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS LOW
LEVEL SW JET MOVES ACROSS TODAY. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT PASSES A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WHICH MAY REDUCE VSBYS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

WINDS SHIFT TO W AND TEND TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT WILL STILL
SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EARLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL
LINGER AOA 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

THURSDAY...LIGHT NW WINDS IN PLACE. LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS EARLY SHOULD SUBSIDE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY BECOME NORTHEAST FRIDAY BUT
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS AND MOVES UP THE COAST. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT TRACK AND TIMING...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SOLUTION
STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. AT LEAST
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS SATURDAY 25 TO 35 KNOTS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST 30 TO
40 KNOTS SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH/GALE WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291420
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1020 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRY...SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL
PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN USA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

COLD FRONT PRESENTLY STRETCHED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIA.
WARM-FRONT STALLED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
TO THE N. FOG HAS SLOWLY LIFTED OVER N MA AND S NH AND EXPECT A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THUS HAVE DROPPED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

OTHERWISE...SW-FLOW OF GULF-MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD ADVECTING
PWATS UP TO 1.25-INCHES. UNDERGOING AT LEAST SOME LEVEL OF DEEP-
LAYER ASCENT AND LIFT BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET...
ASIDE FROM BETTER DYNAMICS WELL N...A LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
ALONG AND TO THE REAR OF THE COLD FRONT WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS. FEEL THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SE AND
OFFSHORE. THOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL BE PRETTY STEEP WHEREVER IT
WARMS ABOVE THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE /ABOVE 70-DEGREES/. THUS
WILL HOLD WITH THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE MA AND RI...
ALBEIT BRIEF AS THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WITH STEEP ENVIRONMENTAL
PROFILE PUSHES NE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

EXPECT THAT AS THIS LINE PUSHES S AND E...SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE DIFFUSE AS A RESULT OF STRETCHED MID-LEVEL
ENERGY AND LESSENING INSTABILITY.

MILD THIS MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME CLOUD BREAKS. MAIN
FOCUS OF WARMER CONDITIONS IS ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND WHERE HIGHS INTO
THE LOW-70S ARE POSSIBLE. COULD GET WARMER. NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES. BLUSTERY SW-FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER
S/SE-COASTAL NEW ENGLAND WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...
THE H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHES E...AND APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
BY EARLY THURSDAY. SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO
ACROSS E MA/RI/NE CT...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER THAT. H85 TEMPS
WILL STEADILY DROP OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER. BY
SUNRISE...H85 TEMPS FALL TO -2C ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TO +2C ACROSS
THE CAPE. WHILE NW WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EXPECT THEM TO STIR
ENOUGH NOT TOO ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING WHERE SKIES BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY WELL INLAND. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY...
SURFACE HIGH RIDGE BUILDS NE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY WHILE THE H5 TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES
TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE
50S...CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS BUT A GOOD 15 DEGREES OR SO LOWER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...

29/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT REGARDING THE
DETAILS. THE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL BE DRIVEN BY A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED...ANOMALOUS PATTERN. THE CORE OF AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE WAS ABOUT 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE
CORE OF THE 500 MB LOW WAS NEARLY 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL.

THIS MEANS WE NEED TO KEEP THE GUIDANCE DETAILS IN PERSPECTIVE...
AS MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT HANDLE EXTREME EVENTS PERFECTLY. IT IS
ENCOURAGING TO SEE THE GUIDANCE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THOUGH.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS MEAN SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER
SOME OF THE MINOR DIFFERENCES. WE EXPECT BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS NOW THAT THE ENERGY WHICH WILL PRODUCE THIS COASTAL
STORM WILL BE OVER LAND AND BETTER SAMPLED.

THE 29/00 ECMWF STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST AND QUICKER
WITH IT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THAT SAID...ITS TRACK IS STILL EAST
OF 70W LONGITUDE AS IT PASSES BY OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD MEAN THE
GREATEST EFFECTS SHOULD BE FELT TOWARD THE COASTS.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...COOLING ALOFT WITH WEAK RIDGING NEAR
THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW OVER US MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND TURNS OUR WIND
EAST OR NORTHEAST.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THIS WILL BE THE MAIN PERIOD OF RISK FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. UPPER JET FROM CENTRAL CANADA FEEDS AROUND THIS UPPER
TROUGH WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPING. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE TRACK...WHICH WILL BE A
KEY INGREDIENT TO DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE.

CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...WITH
GREATEST RISK ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND DIMINISHING POPS
FARTHER NORTHWEST. WILL REFLECT THIS WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST
GRADING TO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MUCH OF THIS TIME SHOULD BE RAIN. WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW SATURDAY NIGHT...THE RESULT
WILL BE SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
LINGERING CLOUDS BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LOCAL
PERIODS OF LIFR IN DENSE FOG...GENERALLY ACROSS NE MA/S CENTRAL
NH. S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS. MAY SEE SCT SHOWERS APPROACH SW NH/NW MA AFTER
09Z.

TODAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS. LOW PROB
FOR ISOLD TSTM OR TWO FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE DAY NEAR OR
AHEAD OF FRONT. S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ACROSS SW
NH/W MA AFTER 18Z AS COLD FRONT SHIFTS E.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS THROUGH 03Z-05Z...THEN IMPROVING AS COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF
COAST. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS...THEN SHIFT TO W AND DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS CAPE AND ISLANDS THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...VFR. PATCHY DIURNAL CLOUDS AT 4-5KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRENCE. CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR COASTAL PLAIN AND MVFR
NORTHWEST. COASTAL STORM PASSES BY LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ESPECIALLY KMHT-KORH-KBAF-KBDL.
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST 25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS INLAND AND 30 TO 40 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS LOW
LEVEL SW JET MOVES ACROSS TODAY. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT PASSES A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WHICH MAY REDUCE VSBYS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

WINDS SHIFT TO W AND TEND TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT WILL STILL
SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EARLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL
LINGER AOA 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

THURSDAY...LIGHT NW WINDS IN PLACE. LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS EARLY SHOULD SUBSIDE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY BECOME NORTHEAST FRIDAY BUT
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS AND MOVES UP THE COAST. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT TRACK AND TIMING...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SOLUTION
STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. AT LEAST
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS SATURDAY 25 TO 35 KNOTS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST 30 TO
40 KNOTS SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH/GALE WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/SIPPRELL/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 291316
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
916 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN
COLDER AIR THE CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
915 AM...SOME MODS TO THE FORECAST...BUT THIS UPDATE MAINLY DEALS
WITH DROPPING THE DENSE FOG ADV AS VSBY INCR AT MOST OBS
SITES...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE FOG SHOULD COMPLETELY MIX OUT. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS A BIT
THROUGH BETTER TO BETTER SHOW AREAL COVERAGE AND PROGRESSION OF
WHAT ESSENTIALLY IS A BAND OF SHRA.

5 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE WX GRIDS TO REFLECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG
ACROSS MOST OF SRN AND ERN AREAS OF THE FA. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING.  NO OTHER
CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC:
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND DISSIPATE AS A COLD FRONT WITH WIDELY SCT
SHWRS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. VERY LITTLE QPF WITH THE SHWRS
EXPECTED. BY LATER IN THE DAY THE DOWNSLOPING W WINDS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE
MILD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S EXPECT MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
WRN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING. A COLDER AND
DRIER NWLY FLOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS E. THIS
WILL ALLOW CLEARING SKIES. ON THURSDAY THE DRY COOL NWLY FLOW
CONTINUES SO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL DAY EXPECTED. USED
A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL ALREADY BE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE STATES ON FRIDAY AS A POTENT SHORT
WAVE DIVES DOWN ALL THE WAY TO GA BEFORE LIFTING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE MOVES SE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
PHASES WITH A DEVELOPING OCEAN STORM. THE RESULTANT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM DRAGS
ENOUGH COLD AIR WITH IT FROM CANADA FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY
BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN 2"
OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AT THIS TIME... AND SHOULD MELT OFF
DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. WE COULD SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM.
PW VALUES DROP VERY LOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT INDICATING A
VERY DRY AIRMASS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOL IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE MID 30S. ELSEWHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 40S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR TO LIFR CONDS IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG GENERALLY
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WITH A WIND SHIFT ALLOWING CONDS TO IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG
SATURDAY MORNING IN FOG AND SHOWERS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN STEADIER RA/SN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...LOW VSBYS IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. OTRW NOT ENOUGH OF A SSW PRES GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR A SCA. ALTHOUGH TONIGHT SOME WIND
GUSTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA, NO
SCA IS WARRANTED ATTM.

LONG TERM...AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY INCREASE SEAS AND
WINDS ENOUGH FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A COASTAL
STORM NEARS AND INTENSIFIES S AND E OF THE GULF OF ME SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFTS WILL BE NEEDED WITH GALES POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities