Home > Products > State Listing > New Hampshire Data
Latest:
 AFDGYX |  AFDBOX |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBOX 302309
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
709 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TOMORROW. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS DIMINISHING ACROSS SNE AS WV LOOP SHOWS
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN ALL THE
N-NE FLOW OFF THE COOL GULF OF MAINE...WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MID LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR LAKE ERIE WITH ASSOCD COLD POOL
HELPING TO TRIGGER CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND W NY.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT SO THUNDER NOT
ANTICIPATED FOR SNE...BUT WE EXPECT RAIN TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL LOW APPROACHES SNE FROM THE
WEST AND MID LEVEL OMEGA INCREASES ALONG WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HOWEVER...EXPECT INVERTED TROF
BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW PRES AND THE E MOVING UPPER CUTOFF TO
BEGIN TO ENHANCE. NOTE INCREASE IN BAROCLINICITY AND DEFORMATION
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...WHICH COMBINED WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE FROM THE SFC TO H4 OR SO...SUSPECT INCREASE IN
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...SUCH THAT IT/S LIKELY RAINING AT OVER MUCH OF THE
BOX CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LOW PRES CONTINUES WELL TO THE SE OF THE
BENCHMARK...A MODERATE INVERTED TROF IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES
BETTER F-GEN AND EVEN A DEFORMATION AXIS FOR DEEPER LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS IS ALSO COMBINED WITH MODEST ELY LLJ WITH WIND
SPEEDS AT H85 AROUND 25-30 KT /2+ STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/
AND PWATS TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THEREFORE...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY...ITS NOT
UNTIL THE SFC OCEAN SYSTEM PULLS E LATE IN THE DAY THAT THE
MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE. MANY AREAS MAY RECEIVE SOME OF THE
STEADY SOAKING RAINFALL THEY HAVE NEEDED FOR SOME TIME NOW WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING 0.25-0.75 INCHES.
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE BANDING
POTENTIAL WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED THANKS TO K-VALUES IN THE LOW
30S...BUT IT/S DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL SET UP. SO
WILL AT LEAST HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF
1.0+ INCHES. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS LIKE SE MA...WHERE
THE INVERTED TROF HOLDS IN THE LONGEST...BUT IT/S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IT IS OBSERVED INLAND...ESPECIALLY WHERE AN E COMPONENT
TO THE FLOW ENHANCES UPSLOPE.

OTHER THAN THE RAINFALL...COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS MANY
LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END FROM W TO E THROUGH THE
EVENING...POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS RI AND SE MA INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH E COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...AND LOW
LVL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...EXPECT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FOG
AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS REMAIN
LIKELY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY
* RAIN LIKELY SATURDAY
* COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY

OVERVIEW...
MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MID
LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN MAIN
FEATURE WILL BE AN ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROF/LOW DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GT LAKES BY SAT. A PIECE OF ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO
NEW ENG LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF
RAIN WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
AFTER SHORTWAVE EXITS...BROAD TROF WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND GT LAKES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE
AND FRONT APPROACHING NEXT TUESDAY. THERE ARE ALSO TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FRONT AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF WHICH WILL AFFECT TIMING OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DAILIES...

THURSDAY...
MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM SE NEW ENG AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MOCLDY SKIES DURING
THE MORNING AND CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW...THEN BECOMING PTSUNNY FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WITH NE FLOW... TEMPS WILL
HOLD IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY...
SNE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD LEADING TO
MOSUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUDS BACKING IN
FROM THE OCEAN ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE STORM WHICH MAY BRING MORE
CLOUDS TO THE OUTER CAPE.  GFS AND NAM ARE SUGGESTING THIS INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WHILE ECMWF KEEPS CLOUDS TO THE EAST.  WITH CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S...COOLEST E MA COAST.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT INTO SNE LATE
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. DECENT LOW LEVEL JET AND ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO SNE WHICH MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. TIMING IS
STILL UNCERTAIN BUT IT APPEARS BULK OF RAIN WILL FALL DURING
SAT...WHICH MAY LINGER INTO SAT EVENING ACROSS E NEW ENG.

SUNDAY...
FRONT IS OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SUNSHINE AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. 850 MB TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND WILL
LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND HOW PROGRESSIVE THE FRONT
WILL BE. EVEN FASTER GFS IS MAINLY DRY FOR MON SO WE ARE GOING WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.  THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WITH TUE AS
PROGRESSIVE GFS MOVES THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE WHILE MORE AMPLIFIED
ECMWF IS WET.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY IFR EAST OF AN IJD-ORH-MHT LINE...WITH MVFR WEST. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO CIGS THROUGH EVENING...BUT VSBYS MAY BEGIN TO DIP
AS WELL TONIGHT IN A MIX OF DRIZZLE/FOG/LIGHT RAIN. POSSIBILITY
OF PERIODIC IFR VSBYS. CIGS REMAIN LOW...BUT VSBYS LIFT DURING
THE MORNING HOURS AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND ALLOWS VSBYS
TO LIFT TO MAINLY MVFR/VFR. WINDS PICK UP NEAR SHORE IN THE
EAST...WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT....
MUCH OF THE SAME...MAINLY IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN. EXPECT A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM W TO E LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE MAINLY TOWARD RAIN
ENDING...WITH CATEGORIES ONLY REALLY IMPROVING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON THU.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IN THE MORNING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF IFR IN THE MORNING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS CIGS LIFT AND CLOUDS BREAK UP.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE REGION. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHIFTING TO WEST SAT
NIGHT.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

N-NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
INTO TOMORROW...WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL AS RI/BI
SOUND FOR THESE WINDS...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR THE WATERS
SURROUNDING CAPE COD FOR LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DUE TO
INCREASING SWELL ALONE...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 7-8FT
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IT/S LIKELY THAT THESE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU INTO FRI...EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT THU MORNING OVER SE
WATERS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED NE WINDS FRI BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN SCA.  HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU INTO FRI OVER OUTER WATERS.

SAT...SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO 25-30 KT. WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST DURING SAT NIGHT.
HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS.  VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SUN...WEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25-30 KT IN POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.
HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 302309
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
709 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TOMORROW. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS DIMINISHING ACROSS SNE AS WV LOOP SHOWS
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN ALL THE
N-NE FLOW OFF THE COOL GULF OF MAINE...WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MID LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR LAKE ERIE WITH ASSOCD COLD POOL
HELPING TO TRIGGER CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND W NY.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT SO THUNDER NOT
ANTICIPATED FOR SNE...BUT WE EXPECT RAIN TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL LOW APPROACHES SNE FROM THE
WEST AND MID LEVEL OMEGA INCREASES ALONG WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HOWEVER...EXPECT INVERTED TROF
BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW PRES AND THE E MOVING UPPER CUTOFF TO
BEGIN TO ENHANCE. NOTE INCREASE IN BAROCLINICITY AND DEFORMATION
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...WHICH COMBINED WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE FROM THE SFC TO H4 OR SO...SUSPECT INCREASE IN
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...SUCH THAT IT/S LIKELY RAINING AT OVER MUCH OF THE
BOX CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LOW PRES CONTINUES WELL TO THE SE OF THE
BENCHMARK...A MODERATE INVERTED TROF IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES
BETTER F-GEN AND EVEN A DEFORMATION AXIS FOR DEEPER LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS IS ALSO COMBINED WITH MODEST ELY LLJ WITH WIND
SPEEDS AT H85 AROUND 25-30 KT /2+ STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/
AND PWATS TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THEREFORE...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY...ITS NOT
UNTIL THE SFC OCEAN SYSTEM PULLS E LATE IN THE DAY THAT THE
MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE. MANY AREAS MAY RECEIVE SOME OF THE
STEADY SOAKING RAINFALL THEY HAVE NEEDED FOR SOME TIME NOW WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING 0.25-0.75 INCHES.
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE BANDING
POTENTIAL WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED THANKS TO K-VALUES IN THE LOW
30S...BUT IT/S DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL SET UP. SO
WILL AT LEAST HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF
1.0+ INCHES. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS LIKE SE MA...WHERE
THE INVERTED TROF HOLDS IN THE LONGEST...BUT IT/S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IT IS OBSERVED INLAND...ESPECIALLY WHERE AN E COMPONENT
TO THE FLOW ENHANCES UPSLOPE.

OTHER THAN THE RAINFALL...COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS MANY
LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END FROM W TO E THROUGH THE
EVENING...POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS RI AND SE MA INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH E COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...AND LOW
LVL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...EXPECT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FOG
AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS REMAIN
LIKELY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY
* RAIN LIKELY SATURDAY
* COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY

OVERVIEW...
MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MID
LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN MAIN
FEATURE WILL BE AN ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROF/LOW DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GT LAKES BY SAT. A PIECE OF ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO
NEW ENG LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF
RAIN WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
AFTER SHORTWAVE EXITS...BROAD TROF WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND GT LAKES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE
AND FRONT APPROACHING NEXT TUESDAY. THERE ARE ALSO TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FRONT AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF WHICH WILL AFFECT TIMING OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DAILIES...

THURSDAY...
MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM SE NEW ENG AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MOCLDY SKIES DURING
THE MORNING AND CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW...THEN BECOMING PTSUNNY FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WITH NE FLOW... TEMPS WILL
HOLD IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY...
SNE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD LEADING TO
MOSUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUDS BACKING IN
FROM THE OCEAN ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE STORM WHICH MAY BRING MORE
CLOUDS TO THE OUTER CAPE.  GFS AND NAM ARE SUGGESTING THIS INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WHILE ECMWF KEEPS CLOUDS TO THE EAST.  WITH CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S...COOLEST E MA COAST.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT INTO SNE LATE
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. DECENT LOW LEVEL JET AND ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO SNE WHICH MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. TIMING IS
STILL UNCERTAIN BUT IT APPEARS BULK OF RAIN WILL FALL DURING
SAT...WHICH MAY LINGER INTO SAT EVENING ACROSS E NEW ENG.

SUNDAY...
FRONT IS OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SUNSHINE AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. 850 MB TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND WILL
LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND HOW PROGRESSIVE THE FRONT
WILL BE. EVEN FASTER GFS IS MAINLY DRY FOR MON SO WE ARE GOING WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.  THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WITH TUE AS
PROGRESSIVE GFS MOVES THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE WHILE MORE AMPLIFIED
ECMWF IS WET.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY IFR EAST OF AN IJD-ORH-MHT LINE...WITH MVFR WEST. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO CIGS THROUGH EVENING...BUT VSBYS MAY BEGIN TO DIP
AS WELL TONIGHT IN A MIX OF DRIZZLE/FOG/LIGHT RAIN. POSSIBILITY
OF PERIODIC IFR VSBYS. CIGS REMAIN LOW...BUT VSBYS LIFT DURING
THE MORNING HOURS AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND ALLOWS VSBYS
TO LIFT TO MAINLY MVFR/VFR. WINDS PICK UP NEAR SHORE IN THE
EAST...WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT....
MUCH OF THE SAME...MAINLY IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN. EXPECT A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM W TO E LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE MAINLY TOWARD RAIN
ENDING...WITH CATEGORIES ONLY REALLY IMPROVING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON THU.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IN THE MORNING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF IFR IN THE MORNING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS CIGS LIFT AND CLOUDS BREAK UP.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE REGION. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHIFTING TO WEST SAT
NIGHT.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

N-NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
INTO TOMORROW...WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL AS RI/BI
SOUND FOR THESE WINDS...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR THE WATERS
SURROUNDING CAPE COD FOR LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DUE TO
INCREASING SWELL ALONE...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 7-8FT
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IT/S LIKELY THAT THESE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU INTO FRI...EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT THU MORNING OVER SE
WATERS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED NE WINDS FRI BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN SCA.  HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU INTO FRI OVER OUTER WATERS.

SAT...SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO 25-30 KT. WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST DURING SAT NIGHT.
HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS.  VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SUN...WEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25-30 KT IN POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.
HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KGYX 302223
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
623 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...
MOST OF THE LASTEST MESOSCALE MODELS NOW SHOWING PRECIP ENTERING
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINE AND THE SEACOAST OF NH AROUND
09Z...AND CONTINUING TO AROUND 18Z. THERE ARE A COUPLE OUTLIERS
SUCH AS THE HRRR WHICH BRINGS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALL THE WAY INTO
CENTRAL NH BY 04Z. FEEL THIS IS SOMEWHAT OVERAGRESSIVE WITH THE
FAST MOVEMENT/TIMING OF THE PRECIP.  HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED DEW POINT AND CLOUD COVER
GRIDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

PREV DISC... SOME DRIER AIR AND CLEARING NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...OTHERWISE CLOUDS
WERE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUD AND FOG. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE BY DAWN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM MID 40S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW
PIVOTS SOUTHEAST AND SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT
IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TOMORROW WITH AREAS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY STAYING DRY. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY UPPER
CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER GIVEN NO
PRECIPITATION AND THINNING CLOUD COVER.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
OFFSHORE. WE`LL SEE BROKEN CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING.
LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE
THURSDAY FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW...HOWEVER
IT STALLS DUE TO BLOCKING FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. RESIDUAL WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS STALLED SYSTEM WILL KEEP THINGS MOIST
ALONG THE COAST BUT EXPECT FOG AND PERHAPS DRIZZLE AT THE MOST IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE. A FEW SHOWERS ATTEMPT TO BACK ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AND MAY REACH AS FAR AS THE MIDCOAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SPOKE OF
ENERGY/WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS BACK WEST FROM THE COASTAL STORM
AND PROVIDES A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY...AGAIN MAINLY
OFFSHORE.

THE COASTAL LOW FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AS A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
DEEPENS AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS IS A MUCH SHARPER BOUNDARY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
HEAVIER AND TOP AN INCH IN THE HEAVIER CELLS. ANTECEDENT CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDER WITH
-26 C ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE.

COLDER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THIS FRONT AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING...LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT AND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS DRIZZLE AROUND THE COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS KAUG
THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER ALONG THE MIDCOAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOWER CEILINGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SOME TSRA EXPECTED
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON...IMPROVING TO VFR WEST TO
EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
ONCE INCREASE BY LATER TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT AND
BUILDING SEAS. AN SCA HAS BEEN REISSUED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE 5-7 FT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OUTSIDE
THE BAYS AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS THE WATERS. WINDS
MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST NEAR 25 KTS. WE WILL LIKELY ISSUE SMALL
CRAFTS DURING THESE TIMES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 302223
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
623 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...
MOST OF THE LASTEST MESOSCALE MODELS NOW SHOWING PRECIP ENTERING
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINE AND THE SEACOAST OF NH AROUND
09Z...AND CONTINUING TO AROUND 18Z. THERE ARE A COUPLE OUTLIERS
SUCH AS THE HRRR WHICH BRINGS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALL THE WAY INTO
CENTRAL NH BY 04Z. FEEL THIS IS SOMEWHAT OVERAGRESSIVE WITH THE
FAST MOVEMENT/TIMING OF THE PRECIP.  HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED DEW POINT AND CLOUD COVER
GRIDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

PREV DISC... SOME DRIER AIR AND CLEARING NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...OTHERWISE CLOUDS
WERE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUD AND FOG. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE BY DAWN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM MID 40S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW
PIVOTS SOUTHEAST AND SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT
IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TOMORROW WITH AREAS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY STAYING DRY. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY UPPER
CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER GIVEN NO
PRECIPITATION AND THINNING CLOUD COVER.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
OFFSHORE. WE`LL SEE BROKEN CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING.
LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE
THURSDAY FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW...HOWEVER
IT STALLS DUE TO BLOCKING FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. RESIDUAL WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS STALLED SYSTEM WILL KEEP THINGS MOIST
ALONG THE COAST BUT EXPECT FOG AND PERHAPS DRIZZLE AT THE MOST IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE. A FEW SHOWERS ATTEMPT TO BACK ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AND MAY REACH AS FAR AS THE MIDCOAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SPOKE OF
ENERGY/WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS BACK WEST FROM THE COASTAL STORM
AND PROVIDES A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY...AGAIN MAINLY
OFFSHORE.

THE COASTAL LOW FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AS A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
DEEPENS AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS IS A MUCH SHARPER BOUNDARY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
HEAVIER AND TOP AN INCH IN THE HEAVIER CELLS. ANTECEDENT CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDER WITH
-26 C ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE.

COLDER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THIS FRONT AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING...LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT AND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS DRIZZLE AROUND THE COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS KAUG
THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER ALONG THE MIDCOAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOWER CEILINGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SOME TSRA EXPECTED
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON...IMPROVING TO VFR WEST TO
EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
ONCE INCREASE BY LATER TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT AND
BUILDING SEAS. AN SCA HAS BEEN REISSUED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE 5-7 FT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OUTSIDE
THE BAYS AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS THE WATERS. WINDS
MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST NEAR 25 KTS. WE WILL LIKELY ISSUE SMALL
CRAFTS DURING THESE TIMES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 302223
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
623 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...
MOST OF THE LASTEST MESOSCALE MODELS NOW SHOWING PRECIP ENTERING
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINE AND THE SEACOAST OF NH AROUND
09Z...AND CONTINUING TO AROUND 18Z. THERE ARE A COUPLE OUTLIERS
SUCH AS THE HRRR WHICH BRINGS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALL THE WAY INTO
CENTRAL NH BY 04Z. FEEL THIS IS SOMEWHAT OVERAGRESSIVE WITH THE
FAST MOVEMENT/TIMING OF THE PRECIP.  HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED DEW POINT AND CLOUD COVER
GRIDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

PREV DISC... SOME DRIER AIR AND CLEARING NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...OTHERWISE CLOUDS
WERE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUD AND FOG. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE BY DAWN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM MID 40S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW
PIVOTS SOUTHEAST AND SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT
IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TOMORROW WITH AREAS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY STAYING DRY. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY UPPER
CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER GIVEN NO
PRECIPITATION AND THINNING CLOUD COVER.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
OFFSHORE. WE`LL SEE BROKEN CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING.
LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE
THURSDAY FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW...HOWEVER
IT STALLS DUE TO BLOCKING FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. RESIDUAL WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS STALLED SYSTEM WILL KEEP THINGS MOIST
ALONG THE COAST BUT EXPECT FOG AND PERHAPS DRIZZLE AT THE MOST IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE. A FEW SHOWERS ATTEMPT TO BACK ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AND MAY REACH AS FAR AS THE MIDCOAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SPOKE OF
ENERGY/WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS BACK WEST FROM THE COASTAL STORM
AND PROVIDES A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY...AGAIN MAINLY
OFFSHORE.

THE COASTAL LOW FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AS A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
DEEPENS AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS IS A MUCH SHARPER BOUNDARY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
HEAVIER AND TOP AN INCH IN THE HEAVIER CELLS. ANTECEDENT CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDER WITH
-26 C ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE.

COLDER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THIS FRONT AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING...LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT AND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS DRIZZLE AROUND THE COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS KAUG
THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER ALONG THE MIDCOAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOWER CEILINGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SOME TSRA EXPECTED
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON...IMPROVING TO VFR WEST TO
EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
ONCE INCREASE BY LATER TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT AND
BUILDING SEAS. AN SCA HAS BEEN REISSUED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE 5-7 FT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OUTSIDE
THE BAYS AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS THE WATERS. WINDS
MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST NEAR 25 KTS. WE WILL LIKELY ISSUE SMALL
CRAFTS DURING THESE TIMES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 302223
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
623 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...
MOST OF THE LASTEST MESOSCALE MODELS NOW SHOWING PRECIP ENTERING
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINE AND THE SEACOAST OF NH AROUND
09Z...AND CONTINUING TO AROUND 18Z. THERE ARE A COUPLE OUTLIERS
SUCH AS THE HRRR WHICH BRINGS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALL THE WAY INTO
CENTRAL NH BY 04Z. FEEL THIS IS SOMEWHAT OVERAGRESSIVE WITH THE
FAST MOVEMENT/TIMING OF THE PRECIP.  HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED DEW POINT AND CLOUD COVER
GRIDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

PREV DISC... SOME DRIER AIR AND CLEARING NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...OTHERWISE CLOUDS
WERE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUD AND FOG. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE BY DAWN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM MID 40S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW
PIVOTS SOUTHEAST AND SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT
IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TOMORROW WITH AREAS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY STAYING DRY. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY UPPER
CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER GIVEN NO
PRECIPITATION AND THINNING CLOUD COVER.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
OFFSHORE. WE`LL SEE BROKEN CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING.
LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE
THURSDAY FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW...HOWEVER
IT STALLS DUE TO BLOCKING FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. RESIDUAL WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS STALLED SYSTEM WILL KEEP THINGS MOIST
ALONG THE COAST BUT EXPECT FOG AND PERHAPS DRIZZLE AT THE MOST IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE. A FEW SHOWERS ATTEMPT TO BACK ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AND MAY REACH AS FAR AS THE MIDCOAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SPOKE OF
ENERGY/WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS BACK WEST FROM THE COASTAL STORM
AND PROVIDES A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY...AGAIN MAINLY
OFFSHORE.

THE COASTAL LOW FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AS A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
DEEPENS AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS IS A MUCH SHARPER BOUNDARY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
HEAVIER AND TOP AN INCH IN THE HEAVIER CELLS. ANTECEDENT CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDER WITH
-26 C ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE.

COLDER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THIS FRONT AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING...LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT AND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS DRIZZLE AROUND THE COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS KAUG
THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER ALONG THE MIDCOAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOWER CEILINGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SOME TSRA EXPECTED
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON...IMPROVING TO VFR WEST TO
EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
ONCE INCREASE BY LATER TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT AND
BUILDING SEAS. AN SCA HAS BEEN REISSUED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE 5-7 FT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OUTSIDE
THE BAYS AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS THE WATERS. WINDS
MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST NEAR 25 KTS. WE WILL LIKELY ISSUE SMALL
CRAFTS DURING THESE TIMES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KBOX 302016
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
416 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TOMORROW. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
BAND OF LIGHT WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MOD RAINFALL CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT E. THIS IS THE
EXPECTED TREND WITH TIME AS OCEAN LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK AND BEGINS PULLING MOISTURE
TO THE E AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN ALL
THE N-NE FLOW OFF THE COOL GULF OF MAINE...THE CLOUDY DAMP
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO MIX
OF FOG AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THIS
FACT...EXPECT MINS TO BE NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM CURRENT HIGH
TEMPS...ONLY DIPPING BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 50S WITH MAYBE A SPOT
UPPER 40F.

THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HOWEVER...EXPECT INVERTED TROF
BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW PRES AND THE E MOVING UPPER CUTOFF TO
BEGIN TO ENHANCE. NOTE INCREASE IN BAROCLINICITY AND DEFORMATION
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...WHICH COMBINED WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE FROM THE SFC TO H4 OR SO...SUSPECT INCREASE IN
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...SUCH THAT IT/S LIKELY RAINING AT OVER MUCH OF THE
BOX CWA BY 12Z. MORE ON THIS FOR IN THE TOMORROW DISCUSSION
BELOW. HAVE POPS INCREASING AFTER 06Z TO LIKELY...BUT IT/S LIKELY
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LOW PRES CONTINUES WELL TO THE SE OF THE
BENCHMARK...A MODERATE INVERTED TROF IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES
BETTER F-GEN AND EVEN A DEFORMATION AXIS FOR DEEPER LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS IS ALSO COMBINED WITH MODEST ELY LLJ WITH WIND
SPEEDS AT H85 AROUND 25-30 KT /2+ STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/
AND PWATS TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THEREFORE...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY...ITS NOT
UNTIL THE SFC OCEAN SYSTEM PULLS E LATE IN THE DAY THAT THE
MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE. MANY AREAS MAY RECEIVE SOME OF THE
STEADY SOAKING RAINFALL THEY HAVE NEEDED FOR SOME TIME NOW WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING 0.25-0.75 INCHES.
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE BANDING
POTENTIAL WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED THANKS TO K-VALUES IN THE LOW
30S...BUT IT/S DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL SET UP. SO
WILL AT LEAST HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF
1.0+ INCHES. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS LIKE SE MA...WHERE
THE INVERTED TROF HOLDS IN THE LONGEST...BUT IT/S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IT IS OBSERVED INLAND...ESPECIALLY WHERE AN E COMPONENT
TO THE FLOW ENHANCES UPSLOPE.

OTHER THAN THE RAINFALL...COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS MANY
LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END FROM W TO E THROUGH THE
EVENING...POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS RI AND SE MA INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH E COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...AND LOW
LVL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...EXPECT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FOG
AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS REMAIN
LIKELY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY
* RAIN LIKELY SATURDAY
* COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY

OVERVIEW...
MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MID
LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN MAIN
FEATURE WILL BE AN ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROF/LOW DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GT LAKES BY SAT. A PIECE OF ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO
NEW ENG LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF
RAIN WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
AFTER SHORTWAVE EXITS...BROAD TROF WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND GT LAKES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE
AND FRONT APPROACHING NEXT TUESDAY. THERE ARE ALSO TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FRONT AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF WHICH WILL AFFECT TIMING OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DAILIES...

THURSDAY...
MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM SE NEW ENG AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MOCLDY SKIES DURING
THE MORNING AND CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW...THEN BECOMING PTSUNNY FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WITH NE FLOW... TEMPS WILL
HOLD IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY...
SNE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD LEADING TO
MOSUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUDS BACKING IN
FROM THE OCEAN ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE STORM WHICH MAY BRING MORE
CLOUDS TO THE OUTER CAPE.  GFS AND NAM ARE SUGGESTING THIS INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WHILE ECMWF KEEPS CLOUDS TO THE EAST.  WITH CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S...COOLEST E MA COAST.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT INTO SNE LATE
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. DECENT LOW LEVEL JET AND ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO SNE WHICH MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. TIMING IS
STILL UNCERTAIN BUT IT APPEARS BULK OF RAIN WILL FALL DURING
SAT...WHICH MAY LINGER INTO SAT EVENING ACROSS E NEW ENG.

SUNDAY...
FRONT IS OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SUNSHINE AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. 850 MB TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND WILL
LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND HOW PROGRESSIVE THE FRONT
WILL BE. EVEN FASTER GFS IS MAINLY DRY FOR MON SO WE ARE GOING WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.  THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WITH TUE AS
PROGRESSIVE GFS MOVES THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE WHILE MORE AMPLIFIED
ECMWF IS WET.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY IFR IN EAST OF AN IJD-ORH-MHT LINE...WITH MVFR WEST. THIS
IS MAINLY DUE TO CIGS THROUGH EVENING...BUT AROUND 23Z AND AFTER
VSBYS MAY BEGIN TO DIP AS WELL IN A MIX OF DRIZZLE/FOG/LIGHT RAIN.
POSSIBILITY OF PERIODIC IFR VSBYS...BUT MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. CIGS
REMAIN LOW...BUT VSBYS LIFT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS RAIN
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND ALLOWS VSBYS TO LIFT TO MAINLY
MVFR/VFR. WINDS PICK UP NEAR SHORE IN THE EAST...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT....
MUCH OF THE SAME...MAINLY IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN. EXPECT A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM W TO E LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE MAINLY TOWARD RAIN
ENDING...WITH CATEGORIES ONLY REALLY IMPROVING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON THU.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IN THE MORNING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF IFR IN THE MORNING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS CIGS LIFT AND CLOUDS BREAK UP.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE REGION. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHIFTING TO WEST SAT
NIGHT.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

N-NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
INTO TOMORROW...WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL AS RI/BI
SOUND FOR THESE WINDS...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR THE WATERS
SURROUNDING CAPE COD FOR LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DUE TO
INCREASING SWELL ALONE...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 7-8FT
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IT/S LIKELY THAT THESE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU INTO FRI...EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT THU MORNING OVER SE
WATERS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED NE WINDS FRI BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN SCA.  HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU INTO FRI OVER OUTER WATERS.

SAT...SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO 25-30 KT. WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST DURING SAT NIGHT.
HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS.  VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SUN...WEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25-30 KT IN POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.
HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 302016
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
416 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TOMORROW. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
BAND OF LIGHT WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MOD RAINFALL CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT E. THIS IS THE
EXPECTED TREND WITH TIME AS OCEAN LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK AND BEGINS PULLING MOISTURE
TO THE E AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN ALL
THE N-NE FLOW OFF THE COOL GULF OF MAINE...THE CLOUDY DAMP
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO MIX
OF FOG AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THIS
FACT...EXPECT MINS TO BE NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM CURRENT HIGH
TEMPS...ONLY DIPPING BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 50S WITH MAYBE A SPOT
UPPER 40F.

THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HOWEVER...EXPECT INVERTED TROF
BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW PRES AND THE E MOVING UPPER CUTOFF TO
BEGIN TO ENHANCE. NOTE INCREASE IN BAROCLINICITY AND DEFORMATION
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...WHICH COMBINED WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE FROM THE SFC TO H4 OR SO...SUSPECT INCREASE IN
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...SUCH THAT IT/S LIKELY RAINING AT OVER MUCH OF THE
BOX CWA BY 12Z. MORE ON THIS FOR IN THE TOMORROW DISCUSSION
BELOW. HAVE POPS INCREASING AFTER 06Z TO LIKELY...BUT IT/S LIKELY
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LOW PRES CONTINUES WELL TO THE SE OF THE
BENCHMARK...A MODERATE INVERTED TROF IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES
BETTER F-GEN AND EVEN A DEFORMATION AXIS FOR DEEPER LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS IS ALSO COMBINED WITH MODEST ELY LLJ WITH WIND
SPEEDS AT H85 AROUND 25-30 KT /2+ STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/
AND PWATS TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THEREFORE...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY...ITS NOT
UNTIL THE SFC OCEAN SYSTEM PULLS E LATE IN THE DAY THAT THE
MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE. MANY AREAS MAY RECEIVE SOME OF THE
STEADY SOAKING RAINFALL THEY HAVE NEEDED FOR SOME TIME NOW WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING 0.25-0.75 INCHES.
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE BANDING
POTENTIAL WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED THANKS TO K-VALUES IN THE LOW
30S...BUT IT/S DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL SET UP. SO
WILL AT LEAST HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF
1.0+ INCHES. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS LIKE SE MA...WHERE
THE INVERTED TROF HOLDS IN THE LONGEST...BUT IT/S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IT IS OBSERVED INLAND...ESPECIALLY WHERE AN E COMPONENT
TO THE FLOW ENHANCES UPSLOPE.

OTHER THAN THE RAINFALL...COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS MANY
LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END FROM W TO E THROUGH THE
EVENING...POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS RI AND SE MA INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH E COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...AND LOW
LVL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...EXPECT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FOG
AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS REMAIN
LIKELY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY
* RAIN LIKELY SATURDAY
* COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY

OVERVIEW...
MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MID
LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN MAIN
FEATURE WILL BE AN ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROF/LOW DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GT LAKES BY SAT. A PIECE OF ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO
NEW ENG LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF
RAIN WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
AFTER SHORTWAVE EXITS...BROAD TROF WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND GT LAKES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE
AND FRONT APPROACHING NEXT TUESDAY. THERE ARE ALSO TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FRONT AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF WHICH WILL AFFECT TIMING OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DAILIES...

THURSDAY...
MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM SE NEW ENG AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MOCLDY SKIES DURING
THE MORNING AND CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW...THEN BECOMING PTSUNNY FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WITH NE FLOW... TEMPS WILL
HOLD IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY...
SNE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD LEADING TO
MOSUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUDS BACKING IN
FROM THE OCEAN ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE STORM WHICH MAY BRING MORE
CLOUDS TO THE OUTER CAPE.  GFS AND NAM ARE SUGGESTING THIS INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WHILE ECMWF KEEPS CLOUDS TO THE EAST.  WITH CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S...COOLEST E MA COAST.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT INTO SNE LATE
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. DECENT LOW LEVEL JET AND ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO SNE WHICH MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. TIMING IS
STILL UNCERTAIN BUT IT APPEARS BULK OF RAIN WILL FALL DURING
SAT...WHICH MAY LINGER INTO SAT EVENING ACROSS E NEW ENG.

SUNDAY...
FRONT IS OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SUNSHINE AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. 850 MB TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND WILL
LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND HOW PROGRESSIVE THE FRONT
WILL BE. EVEN FASTER GFS IS MAINLY DRY FOR MON SO WE ARE GOING WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.  THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WITH TUE AS
PROGRESSIVE GFS MOVES THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE WHILE MORE AMPLIFIED
ECMWF IS WET.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY IFR IN EAST OF AN IJD-ORH-MHT LINE...WITH MVFR WEST. THIS
IS MAINLY DUE TO CIGS THROUGH EVENING...BUT AROUND 23Z AND AFTER
VSBYS MAY BEGIN TO DIP AS WELL IN A MIX OF DRIZZLE/FOG/LIGHT RAIN.
POSSIBILITY OF PERIODIC IFR VSBYS...BUT MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. CIGS
REMAIN LOW...BUT VSBYS LIFT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS RAIN
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND ALLOWS VSBYS TO LIFT TO MAINLY
MVFR/VFR. WINDS PICK UP NEAR SHORE IN THE EAST...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT....
MUCH OF THE SAME...MAINLY IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN. EXPECT A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM W TO E LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE MAINLY TOWARD RAIN
ENDING...WITH CATEGORIES ONLY REALLY IMPROVING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON THU.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IN THE MORNING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF IFR IN THE MORNING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS CIGS LIFT AND CLOUDS BREAK UP.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE REGION. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHIFTING TO WEST SAT
NIGHT.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

N-NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
INTO TOMORROW...WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL AS RI/BI
SOUND FOR THESE WINDS...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR THE WATERS
SURROUNDING CAPE COD FOR LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DUE TO
INCREASING SWELL ALONE...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 7-8FT
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IT/S LIKELY THAT THESE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU INTO FRI...EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT THU MORNING OVER SE
WATERS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED NE WINDS FRI BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN SCA.  HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU INTO FRI OVER OUTER WATERS.

SAT...SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO 25-30 KT. WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST DURING SAT NIGHT.
HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS.  VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SUN...WEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25-30 KT IN POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.
HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KGYX 301851
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
251 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME DRIER AIR AND CLEARING NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN
MAINE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...OTHERWISE CLOUDS WERE
REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUD AND FOG. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE BY DAWN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM MID 40S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW
PIVOTS SOUTHEAST AND SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT
IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TOMORROW WITH AREAS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY STAYING DRY. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY UPPER
CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER GIVEN NO
PRECIPITATION AND THINNING CLOUD COVER.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
OFFSHORE. WE`LL SEE BROKEN CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING.
LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE
THURSDAY FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW...HOWEVER
IT STALLS DUE TO BLOCKING FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. RESIDUAL WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS STALLED SYSTEM WILL KEEP THINGS MOIST
ALONG THE COAST BUT EXPECT FOG AND PERHAPS DRIZZLE AT THE MOST IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE. A FEW SHOWERS ATTEMPT TO BACK ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AND MAY REACH AS FAR AS THE MIDCOAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SPOKE OF
ENERGY/WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS BACK WEST FROM THE COASTAL STORM
AND PROVIDES A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY...AGAIN MAINLY
OFFSHORE.

THE COASTAL LOW FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AS A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
DEEPENS AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS IS A MUCH SHARPER BOUNDARY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
HEAVIER AND TOP AN INCH IN THE HEAVIER CELLS. ANTECEDENT CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDER WITH
-26 C ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE.

COLDER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THIS FRONT AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING...LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT AND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS DRIZZLE AROUND THE COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS KAUG
THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER ALONG THE MIDCOAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOWER CEILINGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SOME TSRA EXPECTED
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON...IMPROVING TO VFR WEST TO
EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
ONCE INCREASE BY LATER TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT AND
BUILDING SEAS. AN SCA HAS BEEN REISSUED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE 5-7 FT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OUTSIDE
THE BAYS AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS THE WATERS. WINDS
MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST NEAR 25 KTS. WE WILL LIKELY ISSUE SMALL
CRAFTS DURING THESE TIMES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 301851
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
251 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME DRIER AIR AND CLEARING NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN
MAINE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...OTHERWISE CLOUDS WERE
REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUD AND FOG. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE BY DAWN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM MID 40S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW
PIVOTS SOUTHEAST AND SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT
IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TOMORROW WITH AREAS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY STAYING DRY. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY UPPER
CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER GIVEN NO
PRECIPITATION AND THINNING CLOUD COVER.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
OFFSHORE. WE`LL SEE BROKEN CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING.
LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE
THURSDAY FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW...HOWEVER
IT STALLS DUE TO BLOCKING FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. RESIDUAL WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS STALLED SYSTEM WILL KEEP THINGS MOIST
ALONG THE COAST BUT EXPECT FOG AND PERHAPS DRIZZLE AT THE MOST IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE. A FEW SHOWERS ATTEMPT TO BACK ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AND MAY REACH AS FAR AS THE MIDCOAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SPOKE OF
ENERGY/WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS BACK WEST FROM THE COASTAL STORM
AND PROVIDES A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY...AGAIN MAINLY
OFFSHORE.

THE COASTAL LOW FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AS A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
DEEPENS AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS IS A MUCH SHARPER BOUNDARY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
HEAVIER AND TOP AN INCH IN THE HEAVIER CELLS. ANTECEDENT CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDER WITH
-26 C ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE.

COLDER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THIS FRONT AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING...LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT AND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS DRIZZLE AROUND THE COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS KAUG
THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER ALONG THE MIDCOAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOWER CEILINGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SOME TSRA EXPECTED
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON...IMPROVING TO VFR WEST TO
EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
ONCE INCREASE BY LATER TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT AND
BUILDING SEAS. AN SCA HAS BEEN REISSUED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE 5-7 FT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OUTSIDE
THE BAYS AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS THE WATERS. WINDS
MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST NEAR 25 KTS. WE WILL LIKELY ISSUE SMALL
CRAFTS DURING THESE TIMES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/HANES




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301742
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
142 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...
MORE OF THE SAME...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OFF OF THE GULF OF
MAINE AS A WEAK DEFORMATION AXIS CONTINUES TO SPREAD RAINFALL FROM
CENTRAL CT INTO RI AND E MA. MOST OF THIS RAIN IS
LIGHT...GENERALLY ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR SO AN HOUR. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE CASE MOST OF THE EVENING AS WELL...THANKS TO THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS REMAINING OFFSHORE UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS... FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO
AN END. A FEW STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE EQUIV TO 850 MB
TEMPS OF 2-5C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOIST
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
FORM ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. CROSS
SECTIONS OF RH SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE COLUMN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD EVENING.
OVERALL...EXPECT A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE EAST FLOW MAY KEEP COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
EAST MASS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE DRIVING AROUND THE DEEPENING
EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE SUPPORTING JET ENERGY SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NY
AND VERMONT...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO DIRECTLY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE DRY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE PATTERNS TEND TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES EVEN
WHEN FORECAST DATA SAYS OTHERWISE. AND A DAY 5 FORECAST IS RATHER
FAR OUT TO SHOW GREAT CERTAINTY. WE WILL MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJOINING OFFICES...BUT OUR
ACTUAL CONFIDENCE IS 15-20 PERCENT LOWER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES HERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING HIGHER MOISTURE AIR OUR
WAY...GENERATING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THESE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE GETS
CLOSER...PROBABLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY IFR IN EAST OF AN IJD-ORH-MHT LINE...WITH MVFR WEST. THIS
IS MAINLY DUE TO CIGS THROUGH EVENING...BUT AROUND 23Z AND AFTER
VSBYS MAY BEGIN TO DIP AS WELL IN A MIX OF DRIZZLE/FOG/LIGHT RAIN.
POSSIBILITY OF PERIODIC IFR VSBYS...BUT MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. CIGS
REMAIN LOW...BUT VSBYS LIFT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS RAIN
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND ALLOWS VSBYS TO LIFT TO MAINLY
MVFR/VFR. WINDS PICK UP NEAR SHORE IN THE EAST...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT....
MUCH OF THE SAME...MAINLY IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN. EXPECT A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM W TO E LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE MAINLY TOWARD RAIN
ENDING...WITH CATEGORIES ONLY REALLY IMPROVING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON THU.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IN THE MORNING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...CIGS/VSBYS AT MVFR/IFR IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.  SOUTH WINDS LEAD THE COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
SHIFT WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET LINGER ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON AT LEAST THE EXPOSED WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301742
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
142 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...
MORE OF THE SAME...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OFF OF THE GULF OF
MAINE AS A WEAK DEFORMATION AXIS CONTINUES TO SPREAD RAINFALL FROM
CENTRAL CT INTO RI AND E MA. MOST OF THIS RAIN IS
LIGHT...GENERALLY ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR SO AN HOUR. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE CASE MOST OF THE EVENING AS WELL...THANKS TO THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS REMAINING OFFSHORE UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS... FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO
AN END. A FEW STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE EQUIV TO 850 MB
TEMPS OF 2-5C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOIST
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
FORM ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. CROSS
SECTIONS OF RH SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE COLUMN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD EVENING.
OVERALL...EXPECT A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE EAST FLOW MAY KEEP COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
EAST MASS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE DRIVING AROUND THE DEEPENING
EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE SUPPORTING JET ENERGY SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NY
AND VERMONT...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO DIRECTLY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE DRY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE PATTERNS TEND TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES EVEN
WHEN FORECAST DATA SAYS OTHERWISE. AND A DAY 5 FORECAST IS RATHER
FAR OUT TO SHOW GREAT CERTAINTY. WE WILL MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJOINING OFFICES...BUT OUR
ACTUAL CONFIDENCE IS 15-20 PERCENT LOWER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES HERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING HIGHER MOISTURE AIR OUR
WAY...GENERATING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THESE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE GETS
CLOSER...PROBABLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY IFR IN EAST OF AN IJD-ORH-MHT LINE...WITH MVFR WEST. THIS
IS MAINLY DUE TO CIGS THROUGH EVENING...BUT AROUND 23Z AND AFTER
VSBYS MAY BEGIN TO DIP AS WELL IN A MIX OF DRIZZLE/FOG/LIGHT RAIN.
POSSIBILITY OF PERIODIC IFR VSBYS...BUT MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. CIGS
REMAIN LOW...BUT VSBYS LIFT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS RAIN
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND ALLOWS VSBYS TO LIFT TO MAINLY
MVFR/VFR. WINDS PICK UP NEAR SHORE IN THE EAST...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT....
MUCH OF THE SAME...MAINLY IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN. EXPECT A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM W TO E LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE MAINLY TOWARD RAIN
ENDING...WITH CATEGORIES ONLY REALLY IMPROVING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON THU.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IN THE MORNING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...CIGS/VSBYS AT MVFR/IFR IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.  SOUTH WINDS LEAD THE COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
SHIFT WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET LINGER ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON AT LEAST THE EXPOSED WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/RLG




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301604
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1204 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

1201 PM...ANOTHER MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
MESONET IN 1ST PERIOD GRIDS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALSO
DROPPED WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREV DISC..
930 AM...I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE 13Z MESONET FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
7 AM UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING
FORECAST...MAINLY A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUSLY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL COME WITH CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS
WILL MEAN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY
BE THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
SHALLOWER AND BE SUBJECT TO DOWNSLOPING. THEREFORE...HAVE
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 60S THERE. OVERALL...WE EXPECT
TODAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT CLOUDY AND COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DURING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN PA TO OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ENHANCED EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN AND WILL AID IN THE
MAINTENANCE OF CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH
THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GET. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH MODEL IN THAT REGARD...WITH A STEADY MEASURABLE RAIN
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA /HEAVIEST SOUTHERN ZONES/ LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE MUCH MORE TAME. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING MOIST
EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE COVERED THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES IS GRADUALLY KICKED EWD BY HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
THE AREA THU. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SLOW CLEARING AS DRIER AIR
IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS IS JUST A TEMPORARY CHANGE
HOWEVER...AS WRN TROF MIGRATES EWD. SFC LOW PRES WILL RUN UP THRU
THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING A COLD FNT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BE A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ON DEEP SLY
FLOW...SO EXPECT A NARROW BUT POTENTIALLY HEAVY LINE OF
SHOWERS/RNFL. MOST OF SAT SHOULD BE INCREASING LOW CLOUD
COVER...WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY ACROSS NH AND
CLOSER TO 00Z FOR WRN ME. HAVE SPLIT THE FIRST HALF OF SAT INTO 6
HOUR POP GRIDS TO SLOW THE TIMING OF PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING...SO
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

MEAN TROF AXIS LOOKS TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PLACING NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE ACTIVE SW FLOW PORTION OF
THE TROF EXIT REGION. THIS ORIENTATION WOULD LEAD TO MORE FREQUENT
CHANCES FOR PCPN THAN WE/VE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL OF WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MOST
LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO COME BACK DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT AND
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THU AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A SMALL WINDOW OF VFR SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN LATE FRI AS DEEP...MOIST SLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A COLD FNT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT...WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS IS
EXPECTED TO END MIDDAY TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW HOURS SOONER AS THE
STIFF NORTHEASTERLY FETCH SUBSIDES. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF THE
REEMERGENCE OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS LATE WED AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF SLY FLOW LOOKS TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5
FT LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE A COLD FNT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND
THE FNT GUSTY WLY WINDS MAY KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301604
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1204 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

1201 PM...ANOTHER MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
MESONET IN 1ST PERIOD GRIDS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALSO
DROPPED WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREV DISC..
930 AM...I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE 13Z MESONET FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
7 AM UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING
FORECAST...MAINLY A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUSLY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL COME WITH CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS
WILL MEAN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY
BE THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
SHALLOWER AND BE SUBJECT TO DOWNSLOPING. THEREFORE...HAVE
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 60S THERE. OVERALL...WE EXPECT
TODAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT CLOUDY AND COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DURING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN PA TO OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ENHANCED EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN AND WILL AID IN THE
MAINTENANCE OF CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH
THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GET. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH MODEL IN THAT REGARD...WITH A STEADY MEASURABLE RAIN
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA /HEAVIEST SOUTHERN ZONES/ LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE MUCH MORE TAME. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING MOIST
EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE COVERED THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES IS GRADUALLY KICKED EWD BY HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
THE AREA THU. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SLOW CLEARING AS DRIER AIR
IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS IS JUST A TEMPORARY CHANGE
HOWEVER...AS WRN TROF MIGRATES EWD. SFC LOW PRES WILL RUN UP THRU
THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING A COLD FNT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BE A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ON DEEP SLY
FLOW...SO EXPECT A NARROW BUT POTENTIALLY HEAVY LINE OF
SHOWERS/RNFL. MOST OF SAT SHOULD BE INCREASING LOW CLOUD
COVER...WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY ACROSS NH AND
CLOSER TO 00Z FOR WRN ME. HAVE SPLIT THE FIRST HALF OF SAT INTO 6
HOUR POP GRIDS TO SLOW THE TIMING OF PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING...SO
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

MEAN TROF AXIS LOOKS TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PLACING NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE ACTIVE SW FLOW PORTION OF
THE TROF EXIT REGION. THIS ORIENTATION WOULD LEAD TO MORE FREQUENT
CHANCES FOR PCPN THAN WE/VE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL OF WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MOST
LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO COME BACK DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT AND
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THU AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A SMALL WINDOW OF VFR SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN LATE FRI AS DEEP...MOIST SLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A COLD FNT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT...WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS IS
EXPECTED TO END MIDDAY TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW HOURS SOONER AS THE
STIFF NORTHEASTERLY FETCH SUBSIDES. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF THE
REEMERGENCE OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS LATE WED AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF SLY FLOW LOOKS TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5
FT LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE A COLD FNT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND
THE FNT GUSTY WLY WINDS MAY KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ES



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301409
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1009 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
BAND OF LIGHT RAINFALL CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS SRN CT THROUGH
RI AND SE MA. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FURTHER SE WITH TIME...AS
OFFSHORE LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND PULLS MOISTURE TO THE
E. HOWEVER...DO SUSPECT A CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST A SHOWERY
THREAT IN THE E THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK INVERTED SHIFTS ONSHORE
AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE SE AND UPPER LVL WEAK CUTOFF CONTINUES TO
PUSH E. THEREFORE...HAVE POPS GENERALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN RISING AGAIN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDS...SOME FOG...AND MAYBE DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE DAMP AIRMASS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS... FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO
AN END. A FEW STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE EQUIV TO 850 MB
TEMPS OF 2-5C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOIST
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
FORM ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. CROSS
SECTIONS OF RH SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE COLUMN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD EVENING.
OVERALL...EXPECT A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE EAST FLOW MAY KEEP COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
EAST MASS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE DRIVING AROUND THE DEEPENING
EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE SUPPORTING JET ENERGY SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NY
AND VERMONT...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO DIRECTLY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE DRY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE PATTERNS TEND TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES EVEN
WHEN FORECAST DATA SAYS OTHERWISE. AND A DAY 5 FORECAST IS RATHER
FAR OUT TO SHOW GREAT CERTAINTY. WE WILL MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJOINING OFFICES...BUT OUR
ACTUAL CONFIDENCE IS 15-20 PERCENT LOWER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES HERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING HIGHER MOISTURE AIR OUR
WAY...GENERATING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THESE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE GETS
CLOSER...PROBABLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI WHERE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN
THE WEST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...CIGS/VSBYS AT MVFR/IFR IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.  SOUTH WINDS LEAD THE COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
SHIFT WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET LINGER ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON AT LEAST THE EXPOSED WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301409
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1009 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
BAND OF LIGHT RAINFALL CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS SRN CT THROUGH
RI AND SE MA. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FURTHER SE WITH TIME...AS
OFFSHORE LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND PULLS MOISTURE TO THE
E. HOWEVER...DO SUSPECT A CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST A SHOWERY
THREAT IN THE E THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK INVERTED SHIFTS ONSHORE
AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE SE AND UPPER LVL WEAK CUTOFF CONTINUES TO
PUSH E. THEREFORE...HAVE POPS GENERALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN RISING AGAIN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDS...SOME FOG...AND MAYBE DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE DAMP AIRMASS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS... FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO
AN END. A FEW STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE EQUIV TO 850 MB
TEMPS OF 2-5C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOIST
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
FORM ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. CROSS
SECTIONS OF RH SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE COLUMN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD EVENING.
OVERALL...EXPECT A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE EAST FLOW MAY KEEP COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
EAST MASS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE DRIVING AROUND THE DEEPENING
EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE SUPPORTING JET ENERGY SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NY
AND VERMONT...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO DIRECTLY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE DRY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE PATTERNS TEND TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES EVEN
WHEN FORECAST DATA SAYS OTHERWISE. AND A DAY 5 FORECAST IS RATHER
FAR OUT TO SHOW GREAT CERTAINTY. WE WILL MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJOINING OFFICES...BUT OUR
ACTUAL CONFIDENCE IS 15-20 PERCENT LOWER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES HERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING HIGHER MOISTURE AIR OUR
WAY...GENERATING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THESE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE GETS
CLOSER...PROBABLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI WHERE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN
THE WEST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...CIGS/VSBYS AT MVFR/IFR IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.  SOUTH WINDS LEAD THE COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
SHIFT WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET LINGER ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON AT LEAST THE EXPOSED WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301342
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
942 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

930 AM...I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE 13Z MESONET FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
7 AM UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING
FORECAST...MAINLY A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUSLY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL COME WITH CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS
WILL MEAN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY
BE THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
SHALLOWER AND BE SUBJECT TO DOWNSLOPING. THEREFORE...HAVE
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 60S THERE. OVERALL...WE EXPECT
TODAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT CLOUDY AND COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DURING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN PA TO OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ENHANCED EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN AND WILL AID IN THE
MAINTENANCE OF CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH
THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GET. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH MODEL IN THAT REGARD...WITH A STEADY MEASURABLE RAIN
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA /HEAVIEST SOUTHERN ZONES/ LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE MUCH MORE TAME. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING MOIST
EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE COVERED THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES IS GRADUALLY KICKED EWD BY HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
THE AREA THU. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SLOW CLEARING AS DRIER AIR
IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS IS JUST A TEMPORARY CHANGE
HOWEVER...AS WRN TROF MIGRATES EWD. SFC LOW PRES WILL RUN UP THRU
THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING A COLD FNT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BE A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ON DEEP SLY
FLOW...SO EXPECT A NARROW BUT POTENTIALLY HEAVY LINE OF
SHOWERS/RNFL. MOST OF SAT SHOULD BE INCREASING LOW CLOUD
COVER...WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY ACROSS NH AND
CLOSER TO 00Z FOR WRN ME. HAVE SPLIT THE FIRST HALF OF SAT INTO 6
HOUR POP GRIDS TO SLOW THE TIMING OF PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING...SO
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

MEAN TROF AXIS LOOKS TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PLACING NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE ACTIVE SW FLOW PORTION OF
THE TROF EXIT REGION. THIS ORIENTATION WOULD LEAD TO MORE FREQUENT
CHANCES FOR PCPN THAN WE/VE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL OF WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MOST
LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO COME BACK DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT AND
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THU AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A SMALL WINDOW OF VFR SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN LATE FRI AS DEEP...MOIST SLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A COLD FNT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT...WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS IS
EXPECTED TO END MIDDAY TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW HOURS SOONER AS THE
STIFF NORTHEASTERLY FETCH SUBSIDES. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF THE
REEMERGENCE OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS LATE WED AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF SLY FLOW LOOKS TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5
FT LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE A COLD FNT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND
THE FNT GUSTY WLY WINDS MAY KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301342
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
942 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

930 AM...I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE 13Z MESONET FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
7 AM UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING
FORECAST...MAINLY A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUSLY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL COME WITH CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS
WILL MEAN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY
BE THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
SHALLOWER AND BE SUBJECT TO DOWNSLOPING. THEREFORE...HAVE
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 60S THERE. OVERALL...WE EXPECT
TODAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT CLOUDY AND COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DURING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN PA TO OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ENHANCED EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN AND WILL AID IN THE
MAINTENANCE OF CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH
THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GET. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH MODEL IN THAT REGARD...WITH A STEADY MEASURABLE RAIN
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA /HEAVIEST SOUTHERN ZONES/ LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE MUCH MORE TAME. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING MOIST
EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE COVERED THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES IS GRADUALLY KICKED EWD BY HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
THE AREA THU. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SLOW CLEARING AS DRIER AIR
IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS IS JUST A TEMPORARY CHANGE
HOWEVER...AS WRN TROF MIGRATES EWD. SFC LOW PRES WILL RUN UP THRU
THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING A COLD FNT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BE A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ON DEEP SLY
FLOW...SO EXPECT A NARROW BUT POTENTIALLY HEAVY LINE OF
SHOWERS/RNFL. MOST OF SAT SHOULD BE INCREASING LOW CLOUD
COVER...WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY ACROSS NH AND
CLOSER TO 00Z FOR WRN ME. HAVE SPLIT THE FIRST HALF OF SAT INTO 6
HOUR POP GRIDS TO SLOW THE TIMING OF PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING...SO
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

MEAN TROF AXIS LOOKS TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PLACING NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE ACTIVE SW FLOW PORTION OF
THE TROF EXIT REGION. THIS ORIENTATION WOULD LEAD TO MORE FREQUENT
CHANCES FOR PCPN THAN WE/VE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL OF WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MOST
LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO COME BACK DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT AND
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THU AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A SMALL WINDOW OF VFR SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN LATE FRI AS DEEP...MOIST SLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A COLD FNT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT...WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS IS
EXPECTED TO END MIDDAY TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW HOURS SOONER AS THE
STIFF NORTHEASTERLY FETCH SUBSIDES. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF THE
REEMERGENCE OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS LATE WED AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF SLY FLOW LOOKS TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5
FT LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE A COLD FNT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND
THE FNT GUSTY WLY WINDS MAY KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301342
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
942 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

930 AM...I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE 13Z MESONET FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
7 AM UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING
FORECAST...MAINLY A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUSLY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL COME WITH CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS
WILL MEAN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY
BE THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
SHALLOWER AND BE SUBJECT TO DOWNSLOPING. THEREFORE...HAVE
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 60S THERE. OVERALL...WE EXPECT
TODAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT CLOUDY AND COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DURING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN PA TO OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ENHANCED EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN AND WILL AID IN THE
MAINTENANCE OF CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH
THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GET. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH MODEL IN THAT REGARD...WITH A STEADY MEASURABLE RAIN
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA /HEAVIEST SOUTHERN ZONES/ LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE MUCH MORE TAME. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING MOIST
EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE COVERED THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES IS GRADUALLY KICKED EWD BY HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
THE AREA THU. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SLOW CLEARING AS DRIER AIR
IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS IS JUST A TEMPORARY CHANGE
HOWEVER...AS WRN TROF MIGRATES EWD. SFC LOW PRES WILL RUN UP THRU
THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING A COLD FNT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BE A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ON DEEP SLY
FLOW...SO EXPECT A NARROW BUT POTENTIALLY HEAVY LINE OF
SHOWERS/RNFL. MOST OF SAT SHOULD BE INCREASING LOW CLOUD
COVER...WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY ACROSS NH AND
CLOSER TO 00Z FOR WRN ME. HAVE SPLIT THE FIRST HALF OF SAT INTO 6
HOUR POP GRIDS TO SLOW THE TIMING OF PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING...SO
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

MEAN TROF AXIS LOOKS TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PLACING NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE ACTIVE SW FLOW PORTION OF
THE TROF EXIT REGION. THIS ORIENTATION WOULD LEAD TO MORE FREQUENT
CHANCES FOR PCPN THAN WE/VE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL OF WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MOST
LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO COME BACK DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT AND
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THU AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A SMALL WINDOW OF VFR SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN LATE FRI AS DEEP...MOIST SLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A COLD FNT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT...WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS IS
EXPECTED TO END MIDDAY TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW HOURS SOONER AS THE
STIFF NORTHEASTERLY FETCH SUBSIDES. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF THE
REEMERGENCE OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS LATE WED AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF SLY FLOW LOOKS TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5
FT LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE A COLD FNT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND
THE FNT GUSTY WLY WINDS MAY KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301342
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
942 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

930 AM...I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE 13Z MESONET FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
7 AM UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING
FORECAST...MAINLY A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUSLY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL COME WITH CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS
WILL MEAN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY
BE THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
SHALLOWER AND BE SUBJECT TO DOWNSLOPING. THEREFORE...HAVE
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 60S THERE. OVERALL...WE EXPECT
TODAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT CLOUDY AND COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DURING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN PA TO OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ENHANCED EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN AND WILL AID IN THE
MAINTENANCE OF CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH
THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GET. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH MODEL IN THAT REGARD...WITH A STEADY MEASURABLE RAIN
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA /HEAVIEST SOUTHERN ZONES/ LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE MUCH MORE TAME. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING MOIST
EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE COVERED THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES IS GRADUALLY KICKED EWD BY HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
THE AREA THU. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SLOW CLEARING AS DRIER AIR
IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS IS JUST A TEMPORARY CHANGE
HOWEVER...AS WRN TROF MIGRATES EWD. SFC LOW PRES WILL RUN UP THRU
THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING A COLD FNT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BE A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ON DEEP SLY
FLOW...SO EXPECT A NARROW BUT POTENTIALLY HEAVY LINE OF
SHOWERS/RNFL. MOST OF SAT SHOULD BE INCREASING LOW CLOUD
COVER...WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY ACROSS NH AND
CLOSER TO 00Z FOR WRN ME. HAVE SPLIT THE FIRST HALF OF SAT INTO 6
HOUR POP GRIDS TO SLOW THE TIMING OF PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING...SO
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

MEAN TROF AXIS LOOKS TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PLACING NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE ACTIVE SW FLOW PORTION OF
THE TROF EXIT REGION. THIS ORIENTATION WOULD LEAD TO MORE FREQUENT
CHANCES FOR PCPN THAN WE/VE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL OF WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MOST
LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO COME BACK DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT AND
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THU AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A SMALL WINDOW OF VFR SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN LATE FRI AS DEEP...MOIST SLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A COLD FNT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT...WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS IS
EXPECTED TO END MIDDAY TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW HOURS SOONER AS THE
STIFF NORTHEASTERLY FETCH SUBSIDES. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF THE
REEMERGENCE OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS LATE WED AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF SLY FLOW LOOKS TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5
FT LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE A COLD FNT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND
THE FNT GUSTY WLY WINDS MAY KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301119
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
718 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST...MAINLY A
FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUSLY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL COME WITH CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS
WILL MEAN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY
BE THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
SHALLOWER AND BE SUBJECT TO DOWNSLOPING. THEREFORE...HAVE
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 60S THERE. OVERALL...WE EXPECT
TODAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT CLOUDY AND COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DURING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN PA TO OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ENHANCED EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN AND WILL AID IN THE
MAINTENANCE OF CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH
THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GET. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH MODEL IN THAT REGARD...WITH A STEADY MEASURABLE RAIN
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA /HEAVIEST SOUTHERN ZONES/ LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE MUCH MORE TAME. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING MOIST
EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE COVERED THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES IS GRADUALLY KICKED EWD BY HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
THE AREA THU. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SLOW CLEARING AS DRIER AIR
IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS IS JUST A TEMPORARY CHANGE
HOWEVER...AS WRN TROF MIGRATES EWD. SFC LOW PRES WILL RUN UP THRU
THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING A COLD FNT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BE A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ON DEEP SLY
FLOW...SO EXPECT A NARROW BUT POTENTIALLY HEAVY LINE OF
SHOWERS/RNFL. MOST OF SAT SHOULD BE INCREASING LOW CLOUD
COVER...WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY ACROSS NH AND
CLOSER TO 00Z FOR WRN ME. HAVE SPLIT THE FIRST HALF OF SAT INTO 6
HOUR POP GRIDS TO SLOW THE TIMING OF PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING...SO
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

MEAN TROF AXIS LOOKS TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PLACING NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE ACTIVE SW FLOW PORTION OF
THE TROF EXIT REGION. THIS ORIENTATION WOULD LEAD TO MORE FREQUENT
CHANCES FOR PCPN THAN WE/VE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL OF WEEKS.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MOST
LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO COME BACK DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT AND
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THU AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A SMALL WINDOW OF VFR SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN LATE FRI AS DEEP...MOIST SLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A COLD FNT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT...WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS IS
EXPECTED TO END MIDDAY TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW HOURS SOONER AS THE
STIFF NORTHEASTERLY FETCH SUBSIDES. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF THE
REEMERGENCE OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS LATE WED AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF SLY FLOW LOOKS TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5
FT LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE A COLD FNT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND
THE FNT GUSTY WLY WINDS MAY KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301119
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
718 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST...MAINLY A
FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUSLY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL COME WITH CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS
WILL MEAN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY
BE THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
SHALLOWER AND BE SUBJECT TO DOWNSLOPING. THEREFORE...HAVE
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 60S THERE. OVERALL...WE EXPECT
TODAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT CLOUDY AND COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DURING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN PA TO OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ENHANCED EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN AND WILL AID IN THE
MAINTENANCE OF CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH
THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GET. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH MODEL IN THAT REGARD...WITH A STEADY MEASURABLE RAIN
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA /HEAVIEST SOUTHERN ZONES/ LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE MUCH MORE TAME. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING MOIST
EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE COVERED THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES IS GRADUALLY KICKED EWD BY HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
THE AREA THU. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SLOW CLEARING AS DRIER AIR
IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS IS JUST A TEMPORARY CHANGE
HOWEVER...AS WRN TROF MIGRATES EWD. SFC LOW PRES WILL RUN UP THRU
THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING A COLD FNT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BE A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ON DEEP SLY
FLOW...SO EXPECT A NARROW BUT POTENTIALLY HEAVY LINE OF
SHOWERS/RNFL. MOST OF SAT SHOULD BE INCREASING LOW CLOUD
COVER...WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY ACROSS NH AND
CLOSER TO 00Z FOR WRN ME. HAVE SPLIT THE FIRST HALF OF SAT INTO 6
HOUR POP GRIDS TO SLOW THE TIMING OF PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING...SO
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

MEAN TROF AXIS LOOKS TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PLACING NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE ACTIVE SW FLOW PORTION OF
THE TROF EXIT REGION. THIS ORIENTATION WOULD LEAD TO MORE FREQUENT
CHANCES FOR PCPN THAN WE/VE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL OF WEEKS.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MOST
LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO COME BACK DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT AND
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THU AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A SMALL WINDOW OF VFR SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN LATE FRI AS DEEP...MOIST SLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A COLD FNT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT...WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS IS
EXPECTED TO END MIDDAY TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW HOURS SOONER AS THE
STIFF NORTHEASTERLY FETCH SUBSIDES. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF THE
REEMERGENCE OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS LATE WED AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF SLY FLOW LOOKS TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5
FT LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE A COLD FNT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND
THE FNT GUSTY WLY WINDS MAY KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301119
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
718 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST...MAINLY A
FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUSLY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL COME WITH CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS
WILL MEAN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY
BE THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
SHALLOWER AND BE SUBJECT TO DOWNSLOPING. THEREFORE...HAVE
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 60S THERE. OVERALL...WE EXPECT
TODAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT CLOUDY AND COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DURING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN PA TO OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ENHANCED EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN AND WILL AID IN THE
MAINTENANCE OF CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH
THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GET. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH MODEL IN THAT REGARD...WITH A STEADY MEASURABLE RAIN
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA /HEAVIEST SOUTHERN ZONES/ LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE MUCH MORE TAME. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING MOIST
EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE COVERED THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES IS GRADUALLY KICKED EWD BY HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
THE AREA THU. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SLOW CLEARING AS DRIER AIR
IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS IS JUST A TEMPORARY CHANGE
HOWEVER...AS WRN TROF MIGRATES EWD. SFC LOW PRES WILL RUN UP THRU
THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING A COLD FNT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BE A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ON DEEP SLY
FLOW...SO EXPECT A NARROW BUT POTENTIALLY HEAVY LINE OF
SHOWERS/RNFL. MOST OF SAT SHOULD BE INCREASING LOW CLOUD
COVER...WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY ACROSS NH AND
CLOSER TO 00Z FOR WRN ME. HAVE SPLIT THE FIRST HALF OF SAT INTO 6
HOUR POP GRIDS TO SLOW THE TIMING OF PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING...SO
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

MEAN TROF AXIS LOOKS TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PLACING NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE ACTIVE SW FLOW PORTION OF
THE TROF EXIT REGION. THIS ORIENTATION WOULD LEAD TO MORE FREQUENT
CHANCES FOR PCPN THAN WE/VE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL OF WEEKS.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MOST
LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO COME BACK DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT AND
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THU AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A SMALL WINDOW OF VFR SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN LATE FRI AS DEEP...MOIST SLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A COLD FNT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT...WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS IS
EXPECTED TO END MIDDAY TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW HOURS SOONER AS THE
STIFF NORTHEASTERLY FETCH SUBSIDES. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF THE
REEMERGENCE OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS LATE WED AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF SLY FLOW LOOKS TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5
FT LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE A COLD FNT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND
THE FNT GUSTY WLY WINDS MAY KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301119
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
718 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST...MAINLY A
FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUSLY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL COME WITH CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS
WILL MEAN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY
BE THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
SHALLOWER AND BE SUBJECT TO DOWNSLOPING. THEREFORE...HAVE
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 60S THERE. OVERALL...WE EXPECT
TODAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT CLOUDY AND COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DURING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN PA TO OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ENHANCED EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN AND WILL AID IN THE
MAINTENANCE OF CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH
THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GET. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH MODEL IN THAT REGARD...WITH A STEADY MEASURABLE RAIN
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA /HEAVIEST SOUTHERN ZONES/ LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE MUCH MORE TAME. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING MOIST
EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE COVERED THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES IS GRADUALLY KICKED EWD BY HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
THE AREA THU. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SLOW CLEARING AS DRIER AIR
IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS IS JUST A TEMPORARY CHANGE
HOWEVER...AS WRN TROF MIGRATES EWD. SFC LOW PRES WILL RUN UP THRU
THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING A COLD FNT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BE A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ON DEEP SLY
FLOW...SO EXPECT A NARROW BUT POTENTIALLY HEAVY LINE OF
SHOWERS/RNFL. MOST OF SAT SHOULD BE INCREASING LOW CLOUD
COVER...WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY ACROSS NH AND
CLOSER TO 00Z FOR WRN ME. HAVE SPLIT THE FIRST HALF OF SAT INTO 6
HOUR POP GRIDS TO SLOW THE TIMING OF PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING...SO
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

MEAN TROF AXIS LOOKS TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PLACING NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE ACTIVE SW FLOW PORTION OF
THE TROF EXIT REGION. THIS ORIENTATION WOULD LEAD TO MORE FREQUENT
CHANCES FOR PCPN THAN WE/VE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL OF WEEKS.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MOST
LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO COME BACK DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT AND
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THU AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A SMALL WINDOW OF VFR SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN LATE FRI AS DEEP...MOIST SLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A COLD FNT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT...WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS IS
EXPECTED TO END MIDDAY TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW HOURS SOONER AS THE
STIFF NORTHEASTERLY FETCH SUBSIDES. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF THE
REEMERGENCE OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS LATE WED AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF SLY FLOW LOOKS TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5
FT LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE A COLD FNT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND
THE FNT GUSTY WLY WINDS MAY KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301047
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
647 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES. ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON OBSERVED CONDITIONS
BUT GENERAL FLOW OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS... FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO
AN END. A FEW STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE EQUIV TO 850 MB
TEMPS OF 2-5C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOIST
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
FORM ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. CROSS
SECTIONS OF RH SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE COLUMN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD EVENING.
OVERALL...EXPECT A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE EAST FLOW MAY KEEP COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
EAST MASS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE DRIVING AROUND THE DEEPENING
EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE SUPPORTING JET ENERGY SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NY
AND VERMONT...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO DIRECTLY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE DRY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE PATTERNS TEND TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES EVEN
WHEN FORECAST DATA SAYS OTHERWISE. AND A DAY 5 FORECAST IS RATHER
FAR OUT TO SHOW GREAT CERTAINTY. WE WILL MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJOINING OFFICES...BUT OUR
ACTUAL CONFIDENCE IS 15-20 PERCENT LOWER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES HERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING HIGHER MOISTURE AIR OUR
WAY...GENERATING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THESE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE GETS
CLOSER...PROBABLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI WHERE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN
THE WEST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...CIGS/VSBYS AT MVFR/IFR IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.  SOUTH WINDS LEAD THE COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
SHIFT WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET LINGER ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON AT LEAST THE EXPOSED WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301047
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
647 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES. ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON OBSERVED CONDITIONS
BUT GENERAL FLOW OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS... FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO
AN END. A FEW STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE EQUIV TO 850 MB
TEMPS OF 2-5C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOIST
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
FORM ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. CROSS
SECTIONS OF RH SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE COLUMN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD EVENING.
OVERALL...EXPECT A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE EAST FLOW MAY KEEP COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
EAST MASS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE DRIVING AROUND THE DEEPENING
EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE SUPPORTING JET ENERGY SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NY
AND VERMONT...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO DIRECTLY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE DRY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE PATTERNS TEND TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES EVEN
WHEN FORECAST DATA SAYS OTHERWISE. AND A DAY 5 FORECAST IS RATHER
FAR OUT TO SHOW GREAT CERTAINTY. WE WILL MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJOINING OFFICES...BUT OUR
ACTUAL CONFIDENCE IS 15-20 PERCENT LOWER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES HERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING HIGHER MOISTURE AIR OUR
WAY...GENERATING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THESE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE GETS
CLOSER...PROBABLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI WHERE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN
THE WEST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...CIGS/VSBYS AT MVFR/IFR IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.  SOUTH WINDS LEAD THE COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
SHIFT WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET LINGER ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON AT LEAST THE EXPOSED WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301047
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
647 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES. ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON OBSERVED CONDITIONS
BUT GENERAL FLOW OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS... FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO
AN END. A FEW STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE EQUIV TO 850 MB
TEMPS OF 2-5C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOIST
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
FORM ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. CROSS
SECTIONS OF RH SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE COLUMN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD EVENING.
OVERALL...EXPECT A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE EAST FLOW MAY KEEP COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
EAST MASS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE DRIVING AROUND THE DEEPENING
EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE SUPPORTING JET ENERGY SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NY
AND VERMONT...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO DIRECTLY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE DRY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE PATTERNS TEND TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES EVEN
WHEN FORECAST DATA SAYS OTHERWISE. AND A DAY 5 FORECAST IS RATHER
FAR OUT TO SHOW GREAT CERTAINTY. WE WILL MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJOINING OFFICES...BUT OUR
ACTUAL CONFIDENCE IS 15-20 PERCENT LOWER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES HERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING HIGHER MOISTURE AIR OUR
WAY...GENERATING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THESE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE GETS
CLOSER...PROBABLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI WHERE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN
THE WEST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...CIGS/VSBYS AT MVFR/IFR IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.  SOUTH WINDS LEAD THE COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
SHIFT WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET LINGER ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON AT LEAST THE EXPOSED WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301047
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
647 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES. ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON OBSERVED CONDITIONS
BUT GENERAL FLOW OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS... FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO
AN END. A FEW STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE EQUIV TO 850 MB
TEMPS OF 2-5C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOIST
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
FORM ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. CROSS
SECTIONS OF RH SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE COLUMN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD EVENING.
OVERALL...EXPECT A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE EAST FLOW MAY KEEP COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
EAST MASS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE DRIVING AROUND THE DEEPENING
EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE SUPPORTING JET ENERGY SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NY
AND VERMONT...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO DIRECTLY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE DRY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE PATTERNS TEND TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES EVEN
WHEN FORECAST DATA SAYS OTHERWISE. AND A DAY 5 FORECAST IS RATHER
FAR OUT TO SHOW GREAT CERTAINTY. WE WILL MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJOINING OFFICES...BUT OUR
ACTUAL CONFIDENCE IS 15-20 PERCENT LOWER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES HERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING HIGHER MOISTURE AIR OUR
WAY...GENERATING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THESE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE GETS
CLOSER...PROBABLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI WHERE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN
THE WEST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...CIGS/VSBYS AT MVFR/IFR IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.  SOUTH WINDS LEAD THE COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
SHIFT WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET LINGER ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON AT LEAST THE EXPOSED WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300758
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
358 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO AN END.  A FEW
STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE EQUIV TO 850 MB
TEMPS OF 2-5C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOIST
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
FORM ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. CROSS
SECTIONS OF RH SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE COLUMN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD EVENING.
OVERALL...EXPECT A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE EAST FLOW MAY KEEP COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
EAST MASS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE DRIVING AROUND THE DEEPENING
EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE SUPPORTING JET ENERGY SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NY
AND VERMONT...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO DIRECTLY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE DRY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE PATTERNS TEND TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES EVEN
WHEN FORECAST DATA SAYS OTHERWISE. AND A DAY 5 FORECAST IS RATHER
FAR OUT TO SHOW GREAT CERTAINTY. WE WILL MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJOINING OFFICES...BUT OUR
ACTUAL CONFIDENCE IS 15-20 PERCENT LOWER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES HERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING HIGHER MOISTURE AIR OUR
WAY...GENERATING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THESE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE GETS
CLOSER...PROBABLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH 12Z...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IN
LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST FIRST TO
MVFR THEN TO VFR ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS.  SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN
THE WEST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...CIGS/VSBYS AT MVFR/IFR IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.  SOUTH WINDS LEAD THE COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
SHIFT WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET LINGER ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON AT LEAST THE EXPOSED WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300758
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
358 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO AN END.  A FEW
STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE EQUIV TO 850 MB
TEMPS OF 2-5C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOIST
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
FORM ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. CROSS
SECTIONS OF RH SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE COLUMN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD EVENING.
OVERALL...EXPECT A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE EAST FLOW MAY KEEP COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
EAST MASS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE DRIVING AROUND THE DEEPENING
EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE SUPPORTING JET ENERGY SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NY
AND VERMONT...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO DIRECTLY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE DRY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE PATTERNS TEND TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES EVEN
WHEN FORECAST DATA SAYS OTHERWISE. AND A DAY 5 FORECAST IS RATHER
FAR OUT TO SHOW GREAT CERTAINTY. WE WILL MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJOINING OFFICES...BUT OUR
ACTUAL CONFIDENCE IS 15-20 PERCENT LOWER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES HERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING HIGHER MOISTURE AIR OUR
WAY...GENERATING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THESE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE GETS
CLOSER...PROBABLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH 12Z...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IN
LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST FIRST TO
MVFR THEN TO VFR ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS.  SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN
THE WEST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...CIGS/VSBYS AT MVFR/IFR IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.  SOUTH WINDS LEAD THE COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
SHIFT WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET LINGER ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON AT LEAST THE EXPOSED WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300750
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
350 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO AN END.  A FEW
STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLOUDS THIS WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ON WED AND THU
* COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION

OVERVIEW...

FALL IS HERE TO STAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS 12Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. OVERALL THE 12Z
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH ISSUES DOWN AT THE SURFACE. THE TREND FOR THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
IS THAT THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED WHERE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE CMC IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED THEN THE EC
WHERE THE UKMET IS THE IN BETWEEN MODEL. BECAUSE OF THE
DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE DID A MODEL BLEND AS WELL AS HPC FORECAST
FOR THE EXTENDED.

HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT AVERAGE TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR WED AND
THURSDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY BUT
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND WHO WILL SEE THE HIGHER
QPF.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...KEEPING A SURFACE TROUGH/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING A FEW SHORTWAVES ACROSS
THE REGION INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS. EASTERN MA
HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ACCUMULATING PRECIP ESPECIALLY ON WED
INTO WED NIGHT. ANTICIPATE DRIZZLE AND FOG FOR THURSDAY ESP IN
EASTERN AREAS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE INCHES EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THUNDER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ON WED AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLE AND GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING ANY INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

FRIDAY...
QUICK MOVING RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

WEEKEND...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYSTEM AS THE EC SEEMS TO BE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE. THEREFORE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS AND
ENSEMBLES FOR THIS PORTION. NOTE THAT IT APPEARS THAT THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES GET STRETCHED AND IS NOT AS
ROBUST AS IT IS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE OTHER POINT IS THAT
THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...HOW STRONG WILL IT GET AND HOW MUCH DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SATURDAY. RIGHT
NOW PLAN ON KEEPING CHC POPS TO THE SOUTH AND LIKELY POPS TO THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. HOPEFULLY GUIDANCE WILL
LINE UP WITHIN THE COMING DAYS.

TRENDING WITH THE GFS/CMC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY
BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER EARLY SUN MORNING
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH 12Z...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IN
LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST FIRST TO
MVFR THEN TO VFR ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS.  SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN
THE WEST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

KBOX...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR
CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU ALONG THE E COAST BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY TO VFR. FRIDAY WILL BE VFR.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR IN A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COMBINED WITH EASTERLY SWELL WILL HELP
BUILD SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR
BOTH SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX. LINGERING SEAS OF 5 OR 6 FEET WILL KEEP
THE SCA IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASE IN GUSTS...CLOSE TO 30 KTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT...NEAR 7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300750
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
350 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO AN END.  A FEW
STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLOUDS THIS WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ON WED AND THU
* COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION

OVERVIEW...

FALL IS HERE TO STAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS 12Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. OVERALL THE 12Z
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH ISSUES DOWN AT THE SURFACE. THE TREND FOR THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
IS THAT THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED WHERE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE CMC IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED THEN THE EC
WHERE THE UKMET IS THE IN BETWEEN MODEL. BECAUSE OF THE
DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE DID A MODEL BLEND AS WELL AS HPC FORECAST
FOR THE EXTENDED.

HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT AVERAGE TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR WED AND
THURSDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY BUT
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND WHO WILL SEE THE HIGHER
QPF.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...KEEPING A SURFACE TROUGH/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING A FEW SHORTWAVES ACROSS
THE REGION INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS. EASTERN MA
HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ACCUMULATING PRECIP ESPECIALLY ON WED
INTO WED NIGHT. ANTICIPATE DRIZZLE AND FOG FOR THURSDAY ESP IN
EASTERN AREAS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE INCHES EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THUNDER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ON WED AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLE AND GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING ANY INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

FRIDAY...
QUICK MOVING RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

WEEKEND...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYSTEM AS THE EC SEEMS TO BE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE. THEREFORE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS AND
ENSEMBLES FOR THIS PORTION. NOTE THAT IT APPEARS THAT THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES GET STRETCHED AND IS NOT AS
ROBUST AS IT IS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE OTHER POINT IS THAT
THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...HOW STRONG WILL IT GET AND HOW MUCH DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SATURDAY. RIGHT
NOW PLAN ON KEEPING CHC POPS TO THE SOUTH AND LIKELY POPS TO THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. HOPEFULLY GUIDANCE WILL
LINE UP WITHIN THE COMING DAYS.

TRENDING WITH THE GFS/CMC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY
BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER EARLY SUN MORNING
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH 12Z...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IN
LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST FIRST TO
MVFR THEN TO VFR ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS.  SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN
THE WEST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

KBOX...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR
CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU ALONG THE E COAST BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY TO VFR. FRIDAY WILL BE VFR.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR IN A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COMBINED WITH EASTERLY SWELL WILL HELP
BUILD SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR
BOTH SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX. LINGERING SEAS OF 5 OR 6 FEET WILL KEEP
THE SCA IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASE IN GUSTS...CLOSE TO 30 KTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT...NEAR 7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG



000
FXUS61 KGYX 300709
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
309 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL COME WITH CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS
WILL MEAN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY
BE THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
SHALLOWER AND BE SUBJECT TO DOWNSLOPING. THEREFORE...HAVE
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 60S THERE. OVERALL...WE EXPECT
TODAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT CLOUDY AND COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DURING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN PA TO OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ENHANCED EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN AND WILL AID IN THE
MAINTENANCE OF CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH
THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GET. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH MODEL IN THAT REGARD...WITH A STEADY MEASURABLE RAIN
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA /HEAVIEST SOUTHERN ZONES/ LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE MUCH MORE TAME. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING MOIST
EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE COVERED THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES IS GRADUALLY KICKED EWD BY HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
THE AREA THU. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SLOW CLEARING AS DRIER AIR
IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS IS JUST A TEMPORARY CHANGE
HOWEVER...AS WRN TROF MIGRATES EWD. SFC LOW PRES WILL RUN UP THRU
THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING A COLD FNT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BE A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ON DEEP SLY
FLOW...SO EXPECT A NARROW BUT POTENTIALLY HEAVY LINE OF
SHOWERS/RNFL. MOST OF SAT SHOULD BE INCREASING LOW CLOUD
COVER...WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY ACROSS NH AND
CLOSER TO 00Z FOR WRN ME. HAVE SPLIT THE FIRST HALF OF SAT INTO 6
HOUR POP GRIDS TO SLOW THE TIMING OF PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING...SO
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

MEAN TROF AXIS LOOKS TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PLACING NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE ACTIVE SW FLOW PORTION OF
THE TROF EXIT REGION. THIS ORIENTATION WOULD LEAD TO MORE FREQUENT
CHANCES FOR PCPN THAN WE/VE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL OF WEEKS.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MOST
LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO COME BACK DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT AND
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THU AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A SMALL WINDOW OF VFR SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN LATE FRI AS DEEP...MOIST SLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A COLD FNT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT...WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS IS
EXPECTED TO END MIDDAY TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW HOURS SOONER AS THE
STIFF NORTHEASTERLY FETCH SUBSIDES. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF THE
REEMERGENCE OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS LATE WED AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF SLY FLOW LOOKS TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5
FT LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE A COLD FNT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND
THE FNT GUSTY WLY WINDS MAY KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 300709
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
309 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL COME WITH CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS
WILL MEAN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY
BE THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
SHALLOWER AND BE SUBJECT TO DOWNSLOPING. THEREFORE...HAVE
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 60S THERE. OVERALL...WE EXPECT
TODAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT CLOUDY AND COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DURING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN PA TO OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ENHANCED EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN AND WILL AID IN THE
MAINTENANCE OF CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH
THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GET. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH MODEL IN THAT REGARD...WITH A STEADY MEASURABLE RAIN
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA /HEAVIEST SOUTHERN ZONES/ LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE MUCH MORE TAME. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING MOIST
EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE COVERED THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES IS GRADUALLY KICKED EWD BY HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
THE AREA THU. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SLOW CLEARING AS DRIER AIR
IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS IS JUST A TEMPORARY CHANGE
HOWEVER...AS WRN TROF MIGRATES EWD. SFC LOW PRES WILL RUN UP THRU
THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING A COLD FNT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BE A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ON DEEP SLY
FLOW...SO EXPECT A NARROW BUT POTENTIALLY HEAVY LINE OF
SHOWERS/RNFL. MOST OF SAT SHOULD BE INCREASING LOW CLOUD
COVER...WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY ACROSS NH AND
CLOSER TO 00Z FOR WRN ME. HAVE SPLIT THE FIRST HALF OF SAT INTO 6
HOUR POP GRIDS TO SLOW THE TIMING OF PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING...SO
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

MEAN TROF AXIS LOOKS TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PLACING NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE ACTIVE SW FLOW PORTION OF
THE TROF EXIT REGION. THIS ORIENTATION WOULD LEAD TO MORE FREQUENT
CHANCES FOR PCPN THAN WE/VE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL OF WEEKS.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MOST
LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO COME BACK DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT AND
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THU AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A SMALL WINDOW OF VFR SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN LATE FRI AS DEEP...MOIST SLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A COLD FNT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT...WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS IS
EXPECTED TO END MIDDAY TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW HOURS SOONER AS THE
STIFF NORTHEASTERLY FETCH SUBSIDES. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF THE
REEMERGENCE OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS LATE WED AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF SLY FLOW LOOKS TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5
FT LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE A COLD FNT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND
THE FNT GUSTY WLY WINDS MAY KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300201
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1001 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT THAT DROPPED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY WILL
BRING COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...MADE ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE MOVED ALL THE
WAY DOWN THE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE NE. THE FRONT IS STILL WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT. WHILE FOG SEEMS TO BE CONFINED TO EASTERN
MASS AT THIS TIME...LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD WESTWARD. THIS AND
LIGHT DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SW MOVEMENT AND OUT OF THE BOX CWA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COOLER MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE WHERE SST/S ARE AROUND 60F WILL BE UNDERCUTTING WARMER
MOIST AIR JUST ABOVE THE SFC. THE REMNANTS OF A MID LVL RIDGE IS
ALSO PRESENT AS A MID LOW-MID LVL DRY LAYER. THEREFORE...LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE TO FORM ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM NE TO SW. LIKED PREVIOUS
FORECASTER/S THINKING ON THIS SO FOLLOWED THEIR LEAD FAIRLY
CLOSELY. IT LOOKS LIKE...AT LEAST THANKS TO THE CONTINUED N-NE
FLOW THAT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH NEAR SFC MIXING TO PRECLUDE FOG
IN FAVOR OF DRIZZLE CAUSING VSBY REDUCTIONS. HOWEVER...A FEW
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG CAN/T BE RULED THANKS TO THE COOLER MOIST
FLOW MOVING INLAND. BY EARLY MORNING...A WEAK INVERTED TROF LOOKS
TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM MOVING S OF THE REGION AND
THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF. THIS MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
-SHRA RATHER THAN DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...REFLECT THIS AS INCREASING POPS TO CHANCE
OVERNIGHT.

LOWS OVERNIGHT DIP BACK INTO INTO THE 50S...NOT AS COOL AS WOULD
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
INVERTED TROF AND N-NE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING
SO IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR DRIZZLE...FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS TO
COMPLETELY COME TO AN END. IN FACT...-SHRA MAY LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON IN THE E. HOWEVER...THANKS TO SOME DIURNAL BL
MIXING...SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY THE WIDELY SCT -SHRA IN THE E. NOT
EXPECTING A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AS THERE IS LITTLE
BAROCLINICITY. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL.
ALTHOUGH EVEN 2M TEMPS HAVE WARMED IN RECENT RUNS INTO THE LOW-MID
60S.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
FAIRLY SIMILAR SETUP TO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF BEGINS TO SHIFT WITH IT/S BASE
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MORNING. THEREFORE...GIVEN SIMILAR
SETUP AND COLUMN ACROSS THE AREA...SUSPECT THERE WILL BE SOME
DRIZZLE...FOG AND SHOWERS CONTINUING WITH MIN TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLOUDS THIS WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ON WED AND THU
* COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION

OVERVIEW...

FALL IS HERE TO STAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS 12Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. OVERALL THE 12Z
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH ISSUES DOWN AT THE SURFACE. THE TREND FOR THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
IS THAT THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED WHERE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE CMC IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED THEN THE EC
WHERE THE UKMET IS THE IN BETWEEN MODEL. BECAUSE OF THE
DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE DID A MODEL BLEND AS WELL AS HPC FORECAST
FOR THE EXTENDED.

HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT AVERAGE TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR WED AND
THURSDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY BUT
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND WHO WILL SEE THE HIGHER
QPF.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...KEEPING A SURFACE TROUGH/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING A FEW SHORTWAVES ACROSS
THE REGION INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS. EASTERN MA
HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ACCUMULATING PRECIP ESPECIALLY ON WED
INTO WED NIGHT. ANTICIPATE DRIZZLE AND FOG FOR THURSDAY ESP IN
EASTERN AREAS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE INCHES EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THUNDER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ON WED AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLE AND GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING ANY INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

FRIDAY...
QUICK MOVING RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

WEEKEND...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYSTEM AS THE EC SEEMS TO BE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE. THEREFORE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS AND
ENSEMBLES FOR THIS PORTION. NOTE THAT IT APPEARS THAT THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES GET STRETCHED AND IS NOT AS
ROBUST AS IT IS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE OTHER POINT IS THAT
THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...HOW STRONG WILL IT GET AND HOW MUCH DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SATURDAY. RIGHT
NOW PLAN ON KEEPING CHC POPS TO THE SOUTH AND LIKELY POPS TO THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. HOPEFULLY GUIDANCE WILL
LINE UP WITHIN THE COMING DAYS.

TRENDING WITH THE GFS/CMC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY
BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER EARLY SUN MORNING
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF LOWER CATEGORIES THIS EVENING.

INTO TONIGHT...
VFR WILL GRADUALLY DIP TO MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. LOW CIGS WITH SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL
START IN NE MA AND SE NH...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE
SW...REACHING THE CT VALLEY AND S COASTS THE LATEST.
THEN...MVFR/IFR REMAINS IN CONTROL THE REST OF THE NIGHT UNDER
PERSISTENT NELY WINDS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
GENERALLY MORE OF THE SAME...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
MAY IMPROVE TO VFR MID MORNING-MID DAY. SOME SHOWERS /HEAVIER
THAN THE OVERNIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT NOT TOO HEAVY/ ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS E MA AND RI. ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MVFR/IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR
CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU ALONG THE E COAST BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY TO VFR. FRIDAY WILL BE VFR.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR IN A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT NE ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS 4-5 FT MAINLY OVER THE WATERS
SURROUNDING CAPE ANN. ELSEWHERE...LESS OF A RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH INCREASING RISK FOR DRIZZLE AND FOG
AND LOWER VSBYS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
NE FLOW CONTINUES. THIS PROLONGED NE FETCH WILL YIELD A GRADUALLY
BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD APPROACH 5 FT BY LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY ONCE AGAIN BE NEEDED FOR THIS RISK.
OTHERWISE...NE WIND GUSTS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COMBINED WITH EASTERLY SWELL WILL HELP
BUILD SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR
BOTH SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX. LINGERING SEAS OF 5 OR 6 FEET WILL KEEP
THE SCA IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASE IN GUSTS...CLOSE TO 30 KTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT...NEAR 7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DOODY/DUNTEN
MARINE...DOODY/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300201
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1001 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT THAT DROPPED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY WILL
BRING COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...MADE ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE MOVED ALL THE
WAY DOWN THE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE NE. THE FRONT IS STILL WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT. WHILE FOG SEEMS TO BE CONFINED TO EASTERN
MASS AT THIS TIME...LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD WESTWARD. THIS AND
LIGHT DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SW MOVEMENT AND OUT OF THE BOX CWA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COOLER MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE WHERE SST/S ARE AROUND 60F WILL BE UNDERCUTTING WARMER
MOIST AIR JUST ABOVE THE SFC. THE REMNANTS OF A MID LVL RIDGE IS
ALSO PRESENT AS A MID LOW-MID LVL DRY LAYER. THEREFORE...LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE TO FORM ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM NE TO SW. LIKED PREVIOUS
FORECASTER/S THINKING ON THIS SO FOLLOWED THEIR LEAD FAIRLY
CLOSELY. IT LOOKS LIKE...AT LEAST THANKS TO THE CONTINUED N-NE
FLOW THAT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH NEAR SFC MIXING TO PRECLUDE FOG
IN FAVOR OF DRIZZLE CAUSING VSBY REDUCTIONS. HOWEVER...A FEW
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG CAN/T BE RULED THANKS TO THE COOLER MOIST
FLOW MOVING INLAND. BY EARLY MORNING...A WEAK INVERTED TROF LOOKS
TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM MOVING S OF THE REGION AND
THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF. THIS MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
-SHRA RATHER THAN DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...REFLECT THIS AS INCREASING POPS TO CHANCE
OVERNIGHT.

LOWS OVERNIGHT DIP BACK INTO INTO THE 50S...NOT AS COOL AS WOULD
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
INVERTED TROF AND N-NE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING
SO IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR DRIZZLE...FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS TO
COMPLETELY COME TO AN END. IN FACT...-SHRA MAY LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON IN THE E. HOWEVER...THANKS TO SOME DIURNAL BL
MIXING...SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY THE WIDELY SCT -SHRA IN THE E. NOT
EXPECTING A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AS THERE IS LITTLE
BAROCLINICITY. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL.
ALTHOUGH EVEN 2M TEMPS HAVE WARMED IN RECENT RUNS INTO THE LOW-MID
60S.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
FAIRLY SIMILAR SETUP TO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF BEGINS TO SHIFT WITH IT/S BASE
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MORNING. THEREFORE...GIVEN SIMILAR
SETUP AND COLUMN ACROSS THE AREA...SUSPECT THERE WILL BE SOME
DRIZZLE...FOG AND SHOWERS CONTINUING WITH MIN TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLOUDS THIS WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ON WED AND THU
* COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION

OVERVIEW...

FALL IS HERE TO STAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS 12Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. OVERALL THE 12Z
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH ISSUES DOWN AT THE SURFACE. THE TREND FOR THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
IS THAT THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED WHERE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE CMC IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED THEN THE EC
WHERE THE UKMET IS THE IN BETWEEN MODEL. BECAUSE OF THE
DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE DID A MODEL BLEND AS WELL AS HPC FORECAST
FOR THE EXTENDED.

HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT AVERAGE TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR WED AND
THURSDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY BUT
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND WHO WILL SEE THE HIGHER
QPF.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...KEEPING A SURFACE TROUGH/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING A FEW SHORTWAVES ACROSS
THE REGION INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS. EASTERN MA
HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ACCUMULATING PRECIP ESPECIALLY ON WED
INTO WED NIGHT. ANTICIPATE DRIZZLE AND FOG FOR THURSDAY ESP IN
EASTERN AREAS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE INCHES EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THUNDER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ON WED AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLE AND GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING ANY INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

FRIDAY...
QUICK MOVING RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

WEEKEND...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYSTEM AS THE EC SEEMS TO BE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE. THEREFORE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS AND
ENSEMBLES FOR THIS PORTION. NOTE THAT IT APPEARS THAT THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES GET STRETCHED AND IS NOT AS
ROBUST AS IT IS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE OTHER POINT IS THAT
THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...HOW STRONG WILL IT GET AND HOW MUCH DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SATURDAY. RIGHT
NOW PLAN ON KEEPING CHC POPS TO THE SOUTH AND LIKELY POPS TO THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. HOPEFULLY GUIDANCE WILL
LINE UP WITHIN THE COMING DAYS.

TRENDING WITH THE GFS/CMC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY
BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER EARLY SUN MORNING
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF LOWER CATEGORIES THIS EVENING.

INTO TONIGHT...
VFR WILL GRADUALLY DIP TO MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. LOW CIGS WITH SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL
START IN NE MA AND SE NH...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE
SW...REACHING THE CT VALLEY AND S COASTS THE LATEST.
THEN...MVFR/IFR REMAINS IN CONTROL THE REST OF THE NIGHT UNDER
PERSISTENT NELY WINDS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
GENERALLY MORE OF THE SAME...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
MAY IMPROVE TO VFR MID MORNING-MID DAY. SOME SHOWERS /HEAVIER
THAN THE OVERNIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT NOT TOO HEAVY/ ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS E MA AND RI. ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MVFR/IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR
CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU ALONG THE E COAST BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY TO VFR. FRIDAY WILL BE VFR.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR IN A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT NE ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS 4-5 FT MAINLY OVER THE WATERS
SURROUNDING CAPE ANN. ELSEWHERE...LESS OF A RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH INCREASING RISK FOR DRIZZLE AND FOG
AND LOWER VSBYS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
NE FLOW CONTINUES. THIS PROLONGED NE FETCH WILL YIELD A GRADUALLY
BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD APPROACH 5 FT BY LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY ONCE AGAIN BE NEEDED FOR THIS RISK.
OTHERWISE...NE WIND GUSTS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COMBINED WITH EASTERLY SWELL WILL HELP
BUILD SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR
BOTH SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX. LINGERING SEAS OF 5 OR 6 FEET WILL KEEP
THE SCA IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASE IN GUSTS...CLOSE TO 30 KTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT...NEAR 7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DOODY/DUNTEN
MARINE...DOODY/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KGYX 300126
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
926 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. THE CIRCULATION
BETWEEN THESE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE GULF
OF MAINE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE: LOW CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE FA EXCEPT
OVER WRN AND NRN NH. PATCHY FOG AND DRZL WILL BE DVLPG OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS AND LOWERED POPS THRU MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISC:
AT 18Z...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH A COOL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW IN ITS WAKE.
EXPECT AN EXPANDING AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT...ALONG WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTHERN
AND COASTAL SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING CLOUDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG
WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THERE
COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AT TIMES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BY TO OUR NORTH. HIGHS WILL
ONLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN
RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SOME IMPROVEMENT...IT
REMAINS QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH CLEARING THERE WILL BE AS SFC FRONT
REMAINS STALLED OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND...AND 500MB LOW TRACKS OVER
NEW ENGLAND. SFC FLOW WILL HOLD NE AND WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE ADVECTING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH OVER
LABRADOR AND THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE...THE EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL
STILL PRODUCE SOME UPSLOPING OVER THE FOOTHILLS. AND COULD PRODUCE
A FEW LIGHT SHRA OR SPOTTY DZ...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. SHOULD
BE ENOUGH MIXING AS THE COLD AIR LYR DEEPENS...AND THE MIXING WILL
ACTUALLY ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS THAN TUE...MAINLY 60 TO
65 IN MOST SPOTS. THE CT VLY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MOST SUNNY AND
THE WARMEST AS THE DOWNSLOPE DRIES THINGS OUT.

ON THU...COMPACT AND WEAK 500MB REX BLOCK IS OVER THE
REGION. AGAIN WILL LIKE SEE SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT MOST PLACES
WILL SEE P/SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS AGAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. BY FRIDAY THE BLOCK BREAKS DOWN AND LOW HEAD EAST
ALLOWING FOR A MORE S FLOW TO DEVELOP...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS
ON THE SUNNIER OTHER...OTHER THAN CIRRUS LATE...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.

NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST FRI NIGHT...AS IMPRESSIVE
CLOSED 500MB LOW DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST BY SATURDAY AND THEN
TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE AND SHIFTS NE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY....WHILE MAIN UPPR LVL HEADS NE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY.
THIS SHOULD BRING A DECENT RAFL INTO THE REGION...AT LEAST JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT OR SAT NIGHT. 12Z EURO EVEN MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN PRIOR RUNS AND CLEARS THINGS OUT QUICKLY SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS PRES IN FORM THE S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...A FEW GUSTS FROM THE NE TO
NR 25 KT THROUGH 22Z VCNTY OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT...THEN DEVELOPING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE AND
FOG TONIGHT WITH IFR AND LCL LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY...IMPROVING
TO MVFR TUESDAY MORNING. A RETURN OF IFR LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT IN
STRATUS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG.


LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER IN DZ/FG TUE MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AT KLEB/KHIE...AND WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER ON TUE
ELSEWHERE. FLIGHT RESTRICITIONS...COULD LINGER IN THESE AREAS WED
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE VFR RETURN FOR THU/FRI. SHRA AND LOW CIGS
WILL LKLY CAUSE RESTRICTIONS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
930 PM UPDATE: INCREASED SEAS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE
SWANNAM SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD FIT AS SEAS CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND
7 FT. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE
MARKEDLY WITH PASSAGE OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KT INTO TONIGHT ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...GUSTY NE FLOW PERSISTS WED INTO THU...BUT SHOULD STAY
BELOW SCA LVLS. SEAS MAY COME UP ABV 5 FT AGAIN ON THU AS SWELL
FROM COASTAL LOW WELL TO THE S MOVES IN. WINDS SHIFT TO S-SW
FRIDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KBOX 292301
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
701 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION.
AS THIS FRONT PASSES...TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES. HOWEVER
THE MOISTURE INCREASES AND WITH A LOW TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD...FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE EAST COAST. IN FACT BVY IS
DOWN TO LESS THAN 2 MILES AND BOSTON DOWN TO 5SM. PER WEBCAMS
ANTICIPATE THIS FOG TO CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE
AND ACROSS CAPE AND ISLANDS. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON HOW FAR
WESTERWARD THE FOG WILL GET. HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH WELL
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. ANTICIPATE
DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP AS WELL OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER HAS ONCE AGAIN REGAINED CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS HAS OCCURRED AS THE TWO MOISTURE STREAMS...ONE TO THE N
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING UPPER LVL CUTOFF AND BACKDOOR- ESQUE
COLD FRONT AND A DEVELOPING MID ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW PRES. USING A
MIX OF CURRENT SFC OBS AND MSAS ISALLOBARIC FLOW...THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO HAVE BEGUN SLIDING INTO THE REGION...AND IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED NEAR THE CT VALLEY INTO SE MA. NE FLOW HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED AND BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
AS IT SLIDES THROUGH.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SW MOVEMENT AND OUT OF THE BOX CWA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COOLER MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE WHERE SST/S ARE AROUND 60F WILL BE UNDERCUTTING WARMER
MOIST AIR JUST ABOVE THE SFC. THE REMNANTS OF A MID LVL RIDGE IS
ALSO PRESENT AS A MID LOW-MID LVL DRY LAYER. THEREFORE...LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE TO FORM ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM NE TO SW. LIKED PREVIOUS
FORECASTER/S THINKING ON THIS SO FOLLOWED THEIR LEAD FAIRLY
CLOSELY. IT LOOKS LIKE...AT LEAST THANKS TO THE CONTINUED N-NE
FLOW THAT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH NEAR SFC MIXING TO PRECLUDE FOG
IN FAVOR OF DRIZZLE CAUSING VSBY REDUCTIONS. HOWEVER...A FEW
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG CAN/T BE RULED THANKS TO THE COOLER MOIST
FLOW MOVING INLAND. BY EARLY MORNING...A WEAK INVERTED TROF LOOKS
TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM MOVING S OF THE REGION AND
THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF. THIS MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
-SHRA RATHER THAN DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...REFLECT THIS AS INCREASING POPS TO CHANCE
OVERNIGHT.

LOWS OVERNIGHT DIP BACK INTO INTO THE 50S...NOT AS COOL AS WOULD
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
INVERTED TROF AND N-NE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING
SO IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR DRIZZLE...FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS TO
COMPLETELY COME TO AN END. IN FACT...-SHRA MAY LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON IN THE E. HOWEVER...THANKS TO SOME DIURNAL BL
MIXING...SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY THE WIDELY SCT -SHRA IN THE E. NOT
EXPECTING A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AS THERE IS LITTLE
BAROCLINICITY. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL.
ALTHOUGH EVEN 2M TEMPS HAVE WARMED IN RECENT RUNS INTO THE LOW-MID
60S.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
FAIRLY SIMILAR SETUP TO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF BEGINS TO SHIFT WITH IT/S BASE
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MORNING. THEREFORE...GIVEN SIMILAR
SETUP AND COLUMN ACROSS THE AREA...SUSPECT THERE WILL BE SOME
DRIZZLE...FOG AND SHOWERS CONTINUING WITH MIN TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLOUDS THIS WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ON WED AND THU
* COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION

OVERVIEW...

FALL IS HERE TO STAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS 12Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. OVERALL THE 12Z
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH ISSUES DOWN AT THE SURFACE. THE TREND FOR THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
IS THAT THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED WHERE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE CMC IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED THEN THE EC
WHERE THE UKMET IS THE IN BETWEEN MODEL. BECAUSE OF THE
DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE DID A MODEL BLEND AS WELL AS HPC FORECAST
FOR THE EXTENDED.

HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT AVERAGE TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR WED AND
THURSDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY BUT
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND WHO WILL SEE THE HIGHER
QPF.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...KEEPING A SURFACE TROUGH/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING A FEW SHORTWAVES ACROSS
THE REGION INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS. EASTERN MA
HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ACCUMULATING PRECIP ESPECIALLY ON WED
INTO WED NIGHT. ANTICIPATE DRIZZLE AND FOG FOR THURSDAY ESP IN
EASTERN AREAS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE INCHES EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THUNDER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ON WED AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLE AND GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING ANY INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

FRIDAY...
QUICK MOVING RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

WEEKEND...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYSTEM AS THE EC SEEMS TO BE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE. THEREFORE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS AND
ENSEMBLES FOR THIS PORTION. NOTE THAT IT APPEARS THAT THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES GET STRETCHED AND IS NOT AS
ROBUST AS IT IS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE OTHER POINT IS THAT
THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...HOW STRONG WILL IT GET AND HOW MUCH DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SATURDAY. RIGHT
NOW PLAN ON KEEPING CHC POPS TO THE SOUTH AND LIKELY POPS TO THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. HOPEFULLY GUIDANCE WILL
LINE UP WITHIN THE COMING DAYS.

TRENDING WITH THE GFS/CMC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY
BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER EARLY SUN MORNING
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF LOWER CATEGORIES THIS EVENING.

INTO TONIGHT...
VFR WILL GRADUALLY DIP TO MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. LOW CIGS WITH SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL
START IN NE MA AND SE NH...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE
SW...REACHING THE CT VALLEY AND S COASTS THE LATEST.
THEN...MVFR/IFR REMAINS IN CONTROL THE REST OF THE NIGHT UNDER
PERSISTENT NELY WINDS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
GENERALLY MORE OF THE SAME...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
MAY IMPROVE TO VFR MID MORNING-MID DAY. SOME SHOWERS /HEAVIER
THAN THE OVERNIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT NOT TOO HEAVY/ ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS E MA AND RI. ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MVFR/IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR
CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU ALONG THE E COAST BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY TO VFR. FRIDAY WILL BE VFR.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR IN A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT NE ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS 4-5 FT MAINLY OVER THE WATERS
SURROUNDING CAPE ANN. ELSEWHERE...LESS OF A RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH INCREASING RISK FOR DRIZZLE AND FOG
AND LOWER VSBYS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
NE FLOW CONTINUES. THIS PROLONGED NE FETCH WILL YIELD A GRADUALLY
BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD APPROACH 5 FT BY LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY ONCE AGAIN BE NEEDED FOR THIS RISK.
OTHERWISE...NE WIND GUSTS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COMBINED WITH EASTERLY SWELL WILL HELP
BUILD SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR
BOTH SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX. LINGERING SEAS OF 5 OR 6 FEET WILL KEEP
THE SCA IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASE IN GUSTS...CLOSE TO 30 KTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT...NEAR 7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DOODY/DUNTEN
MARINE...DOODY/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 292301
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
701 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION.
AS THIS FRONT PASSES...TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES. HOWEVER
THE MOISTURE INCREASES AND WITH A LOW TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD...FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE EAST COAST. IN FACT BVY IS
DOWN TO LESS THAN 2 MILES AND BOSTON DOWN TO 5SM. PER WEBCAMS
ANTICIPATE THIS FOG TO CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE
AND ACROSS CAPE AND ISLANDS. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON HOW FAR
WESTERWARD THE FOG WILL GET. HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH WELL
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. ANTICIPATE
DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP AS WELL OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER HAS ONCE AGAIN REGAINED CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS HAS OCCURRED AS THE TWO MOISTURE STREAMS...ONE TO THE N
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING UPPER LVL CUTOFF AND BACKDOOR- ESQUE
COLD FRONT AND A DEVELOPING MID ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW PRES. USING A
MIX OF CURRENT SFC OBS AND MSAS ISALLOBARIC FLOW...THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO HAVE BEGUN SLIDING INTO THE REGION...AND IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED NEAR THE CT VALLEY INTO SE MA. NE FLOW HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED AND BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
AS IT SLIDES THROUGH.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SW MOVEMENT AND OUT OF THE BOX CWA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COOLER MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE WHERE SST/S ARE AROUND 60F WILL BE UNDERCUTTING WARMER
MOIST AIR JUST ABOVE THE SFC. THE REMNANTS OF A MID LVL RIDGE IS
ALSO PRESENT AS A MID LOW-MID LVL DRY LAYER. THEREFORE...LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE TO FORM ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM NE TO SW. LIKED PREVIOUS
FORECASTER/S THINKING ON THIS SO FOLLOWED THEIR LEAD FAIRLY
CLOSELY. IT LOOKS LIKE...AT LEAST THANKS TO THE CONTINUED N-NE
FLOW THAT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH NEAR SFC MIXING TO PRECLUDE FOG
IN FAVOR OF DRIZZLE CAUSING VSBY REDUCTIONS. HOWEVER...A FEW
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG CAN/T BE RULED THANKS TO THE COOLER MOIST
FLOW MOVING INLAND. BY EARLY MORNING...A WEAK INVERTED TROF LOOKS
TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM MOVING S OF THE REGION AND
THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF. THIS MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
-SHRA RATHER THAN DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...REFLECT THIS AS INCREASING POPS TO CHANCE
OVERNIGHT.

LOWS OVERNIGHT DIP BACK INTO INTO THE 50S...NOT AS COOL AS WOULD
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
INVERTED TROF AND N-NE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING
SO IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR DRIZZLE...FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS TO
COMPLETELY COME TO AN END. IN FACT...-SHRA MAY LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON IN THE E. HOWEVER...THANKS TO SOME DIURNAL BL
MIXING...SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY THE WIDELY SCT -SHRA IN THE E. NOT
EXPECTING A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AS THERE IS LITTLE
BAROCLINICITY. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL.
ALTHOUGH EVEN 2M TEMPS HAVE WARMED IN RECENT RUNS INTO THE LOW-MID
60S.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
FAIRLY SIMILAR SETUP TO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF BEGINS TO SHIFT WITH IT/S BASE
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MORNING. THEREFORE...GIVEN SIMILAR
SETUP AND COLUMN ACROSS THE AREA...SUSPECT THERE WILL BE SOME
DRIZZLE...FOG AND SHOWERS CONTINUING WITH MIN TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLOUDS THIS WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ON WED AND THU
* COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION

OVERVIEW...

FALL IS HERE TO STAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS 12Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. OVERALL THE 12Z
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH ISSUES DOWN AT THE SURFACE. THE TREND FOR THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
IS THAT THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED WHERE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE CMC IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED THEN THE EC
WHERE THE UKMET IS THE IN BETWEEN MODEL. BECAUSE OF THE
DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE DID A MODEL BLEND AS WELL AS HPC FORECAST
FOR THE EXTENDED.

HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT AVERAGE TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR WED AND
THURSDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY BUT
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND WHO WILL SEE THE HIGHER
QPF.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...KEEPING A SURFACE TROUGH/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING A FEW SHORTWAVES ACROSS
THE REGION INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS. EASTERN MA
HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ACCUMULATING PRECIP ESPECIALLY ON WED
INTO WED NIGHT. ANTICIPATE DRIZZLE AND FOG FOR THURSDAY ESP IN
EASTERN AREAS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE INCHES EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THUNDER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ON WED AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLE AND GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING ANY INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

FRIDAY...
QUICK MOVING RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

WEEKEND...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYSTEM AS THE EC SEEMS TO BE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE. THEREFORE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS AND
ENSEMBLES FOR THIS PORTION. NOTE THAT IT APPEARS THAT THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES GET STRETCHED AND IS NOT AS
ROBUST AS IT IS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE OTHER POINT IS THAT
THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...HOW STRONG WILL IT GET AND HOW MUCH DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SATURDAY. RIGHT
NOW PLAN ON KEEPING CHC POPS TO THE SOUTH AND LIKELY POPS TO THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. HOPEFULLY GUIDANCE WILL
LINE UP WITHIN THE COMING DAYS.

TRENDING WITH THE GFS/CMC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY
BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER EARLY SUN MORNING
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF LOWER CATEGORIES THIS EVENING.

INTO TONIGHT...
VFR WILL GRADUALLY DIP TO MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. LOW CIGS WITH SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL
START IN NE MA AND SE NH...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE
SW...REACHING THE CT VALLEY AND S COASTS THE LATEST.
THEN...MVFR/IFR REMAINS IN CONTROL THE REST OF THE NIGHT UNDER
PERSISTENT NELY WINDS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
GENERALLY MORE OF THE SAME...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
MAY IMPROVE TO VFR MID MORNING-MID DAY. SOME SHOWERS /HEAVIER
THAN THE OVERNIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT NOT TOO HEAVY/ ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS E MA AND RI. ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MVFR/IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR
CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU ALONG THE E COAST BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY TO VFR. FRIDAY WILL BE VFR.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR IN A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT NE ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS 4-5 FT MAINLY OVER THE WATERS
SURROUNDING CAPE ANN. ELSEWHERE...LESS OF A RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH INCREASING RISK FOR DRIZZLE AND FOG
AND LOWER VSBYS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
NE FLOW CONTINUES. THIS PROLONGED NE FETCH WILL YIELD A GRADUALLY
BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD APPROACH 5 FT BY LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY ONCE AGAIN BE NEEDED FOR THIS RISK.
OTHERWISE...NE WIND GUSTS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COMBINED WITH EASTERLY SWELL WILL HELP
BUILD SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR
BOTH SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX. LINGERING SEAS OF 5 OR 6 FEET WILL KEEP
THE SCA IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASE IN GUSTS...CLOSE TO 30 KTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT...NEAR 7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DOODY/DUNTEN
MARINE...DOODY/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291954
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
354 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUD COVER HAS ONCE AGAIN REGAINED CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS HAS OCCURRED AS THE TWO MOISTURE STREAMS...ONE TO THE N
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING UPPER LVL CUTOFF AND BACKDOOR-ESQUE COLD
FRONT AND A DEVELOPING MID ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW PRES. USING A MIX
OF CURRENT SFC OBS AND MSAS ISALLOBARIC FLOW...THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO HAVE BEGUN SLIDING INTO THE REGION...AND IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED NEAR THE CT VALLEY INTO SE MA. NE FLOW HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED AND BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
AS IT SLIDES THROUGH.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SW MOVEMENT AND OUT OF THE BOX CWA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COOLER MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE WHERE SST/S ARE AROUND 60F WILL BE UNDERCUTTING WARMER
MOIST AIR JUST ABOVE THE SFC. THE REMNANTS OF A MID LVL RIDGE IS
ALSO PRESENT AS A MID LOW-MID LVL DRY LAYER. THEREFORE...LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE TO FORM ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM NE TO SW. LIKED PREVIOUS
FORECASTER/S THINKING ON THIS SO FOLLOWED THEIR LEAD FAIRLY
CLOSELY. IT LOOKS LIKE...AT LEAST THANKS TO THE CONTINUED N-NE
FLOW THAT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH NEAR SFC MIXING TO PRECLUDE FOG
IN FAVOR OF DRIZZLE CAUSING VSBY REDUCTIONS. HOWEVER...A FEW
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG CAN/T BE RULED THANKS TO THE COOLER MOIST
FLOW MOVING INLAND. BY EARLY MORNING...A WEAK INVERTED TROF LOOKS
TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM MOVING S OF THE REGION AND
THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF. THIS MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
-SHRA RATHER THAN DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...REFLECT THIS AS INCREASING POPS TO CHANCE
OVERNIGHT.

LOWS OVERNIGHT DIP BACK INTO INTO THE 50S...NOT AS COOL AS WOULD
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
INVERTED TROF AND N-NE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING
SO IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR DRIZZLE...FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS TO
COMPLETELY COME TO AN END. IN FACT...-SHRA MAY LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON IN THE E. HOWEVER...THANKS TO SOME DIURNAL BL
MIXING...SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY THE WIDELY SCT -SHRA IN THE E. NOT
EXPECTING A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AS THERE IS LITTLE
BAROCLINICITY. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL.
ALTHOUGH EVEN 2M TEMPS HAVE WARMED IN RECENT RUNS INTO THE LOW-MID
60S.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
FAIRLY SIMILAR SETUP TO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF BEGINS TO SHIFT WITH IT/S BASE
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MORNING. THEREFORE...GIVEN SIMILAR
SETUP AND COLUMN ACROSS THE AREA...SUSPECT THERE WILL BE SOME
DRIZZLE...FOG AND SHOWERS CONTINUING WITH MIN TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLOUDS THIS WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ON WED AND THU
* COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION

OVERVIEW...

FALL IS HERE TO STAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS 12Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. OVERALL THE 12Z
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH ISSUES DOWN AT THE SURFACE. THE TREND FOR THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
IS THAT THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED WHERE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE CMC IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED THEN THE EC
WHERE THE UKMET IS THE IN BETWEEN MODEL. BECAUSE OF THE
DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE DID A MODEL BLEND AS WELL AS HPC FORECAST
FOR THE EXTENDED.

HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT AVERAGE TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR WED AND
THURSDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY BUT
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND WHO WILL SEE THE HIGHER
QPF.


DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...KEEPING A SURFACE TROUGH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING A FEW SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE REGION
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS. EASTERN MA HAS THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE ACCUMULATING PRECIP ESPECIALLY ON WED INTO WED NIGHT.
ANTICIPATE DRIZZLE AND FOG FOR THURSDAY ESP IN EASTERN AREAS AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INCHES
EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THUNDER IS NOT ANTICIPATED ON WED AS THE
MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE STABLE AND GUIDANCE IS NOT
SHOWING ANY INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.


FRIDAY...

QUICK MOVING RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.


WEEKEND...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM
AS THE EC SEEMS TO BE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE. THEREFORE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLES
FOR THIS PORTION. NOTE THAT IT APPEARS THAT THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES GET STRETCHED AND IS NOT AS ROBUST AS IT IS
ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE OTHER POINT IS THAT THE RIDGE ON
FRIDAY...HOW STRONG WILL IT GET AND HOW MUCH DRY AIR WILL LINGER AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW PLAN ON
KEEPING CHC POPS TO THE SOUTH AND LIKELY POPS TO THE NORTH...CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. HOPEFULLY GUIDANCE WILL LINE UP WITHIN
THE COMING DAYS.

TRENDING WITH THE GFS/CMC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY
BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER EARLY SUN MORNING
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF LOWER CATEGORIES THIS EVENING.

INTO TONIGHT...
VFR WILL GRADUALLY DIP TO MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. LOW CIGS WITH SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL
START IN NE MA AND SE NH...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE
SW...REACHING THE CT VALLEY AND S COASTS THE LATEST.
THEN...MVFR/IFR REMAINS IN CONTROL THE REST OF THE NIGHT UNDER
PERSISTENT NELY WINDS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
GENERALLY MORE OF THE SAME...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
MAY IMPROVE TO VFR MID MORNING-MID DAY. SOME SHOWERS /HEAVIER
THAN THE OVERNIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT NOT TOO HEAVY/ ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS E MA AND RI. ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN EXACT TIMING.  FIRST MVFR CIGS LIKELY 20-22Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR
CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU ALONG THE E COAST BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY TO VFR. FRIDAY WILL BE VFR.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR IN A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT NE ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS 4-5 FT MAINLY OVER THE WATERS
SURROUNDING CAPE ANN. ELSEWHERE...LESS OF A RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH INCREASING RISK FOR DRIZZLE AND FOG
AND LOWER VSBYS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
NE FLOW CONTINUES. THIS PROLONGED NE FETCH WILL YIELD A GRADUALLY
BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD APPROACH 5 FT BY LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY ONCE AGAIN BE NEEDED FOR THIS RISK.
OTHERWISE...NE WIND GUSTS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COMBINED WITH EASTERLY SWELL WILL HELP
BUILD SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR
BOTH SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX. LINGERING SEAS OF 5 OR 6 FEET WILL KEEP
THE SCA IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASE IN GUSTS...CLOSE TO 30 KTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT...NEAR 7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DOODY/DUNTEN
MARINE...DOODY/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291954
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
354 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUD COVER HAS ONCE AGAIN REGAINED CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS HAS OCCURRED AS THE TWO MOISTURE STREAMS...ONE TO THE N
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING UPPER LVL CUTOFF AND BACKDOOR-ESQUE COLD
FRONT AND A DEVELOPING MID ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW PRES. USING A MIX
OF CURRENT SFC OBS AND MSAS ISALLOBARIC FLOW...THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO HAVE BEGUN SLIDING INTO THE REGION...AND IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED NEAR THE CT VALLEY INTO SE MA. NE FLOW HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED AND BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
AS IT SLIDES THROUGH.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SW MOVEMENT AND OUT OF THE BOX CWA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COOLER MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE WHERE SST/S ARE AROUND 60F WILL BE UNDERCUTTING WARMER
MOIST AIR JUST ABOVE THE SFC. THE REMNANTS OF A MID LVL RIDGE IS
ALSO PRESENT AS A MID LOW-MID LVL DRY LAYER. THEREFORE...LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE TO FORM ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM NE TO SW. LIKED PREVIOUS
FORECASTER/S THINKING ON THIS SO FOLLOWED THEIR LEAD FAIRLY
CLOSELY. IT LOOKS LIKE...AT LEAST THANKS TO THE CONTINUED N-NE
FLOW THAT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH NEAR SFC MIXING TO PRECLUDE FOG
IN FAVOR OF DRIZZLE CAUSING VSBY REDUCTIONS. HOWEVER...A FEW
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG CAN/T BE RULED THANKS TO THE COOLER MOIST
FLOW MOVING INLAND. BY EARLY MORNING...A WEAK INVERTED TROF LOOKS
TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM MOVING S OF THE REGION AND
THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF. THIS MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
-SHRA RATHER THAN DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...REFLECT THIS AS INCREASING POPS TO CHANCE
OVERNIGHT.

LOWS OVERNIGHT DIP BACK INTO INTO THE 50S...NOT AS COOL AS WOULD
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
INVERTED TROF AND N-NE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING
SO IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR DRIZZLE...FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS TO
COMPLETELY COME TO AN END. IN FACT...-SHRA MAY LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON IN THE E. HOWEVER...THANKS TO SOME DIURNAL BL
MIXING...SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY THE WIDELY SCT -SHRA IN THE E. NOT
EXPECTING A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AS THERE IS LITTLE
BAROCLINICITY. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL.
ALTHOUGH EVEN 2M TEMPS HAVE WARMED IN RECENT RUNS INTO THE LOW-MID
60S.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
FAIRLY SIMILAR SETUP TO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF BEGINS TO SHIFT WITH IT/S BASE
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MORNING. THEREFORE...GIVEN SIMILAR
SETUP AND COLUMN ACROSS THE AREA...SUSPECT THERE WILL BE SOME
DRIZZLE...FOG AND SHOWERS CONTINUING WITH MIN TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLOUDS THIS WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ON WED AND THU
* COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION

OVERVIEW...

FALL IS HERE TO STAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS 12Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. OVERALL THE 12Z
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH ISSUES DOWN AT THE SURFACE. THE TREND FOR THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
IS THAT THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED WHERE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE CMC IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED THEN THE EC
WHERE THE UKMET IS THE IN BETWEEN MODEL. BECAUSE OF THE
DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE DID A MODEL BLEND AS WELL AS HPC FORECAST
FOR THE EXTENDED.

HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT AVERAGE TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR WED AND
THURSDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY BUT
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND WHO WILL SEE THE HIGHER
QPF.


DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...KEEPING A SURFACE TROUGH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING A FEW SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE REGION
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS. EASTERN MA HAS THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE ACCUMULATING PRECIP ESPECIALLY ON WED INTO WED NIGHT.
ANTICIPATE DRIZZLE AND FOG FOR THURSDAY ESP IN EASTERN AREAS AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INCHES
EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THUNDER IS NOT ANTICIPATED ON WED AS THE
MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE STABLE AND GUIDANCE IS NOT
SHOWING ANY INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.


FRIDAY...

QUICK MOVING RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.


WEEKEND...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM
AS THE EC SEEMS TO BE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE. THEREFORE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLES
FOR THIS PORTION. NOTE THAT IT APPEARS THAT THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES GET STRETCHED AND IS NOT AS ROBUST AS IT IS
ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE OTHER POINT IS THAT THE RIDGE ON
FRIDAY...HOW STRONG WILL IT GET AND HOW MUCH DRY AIR WILL LINGER AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW PLAN ON
KEEPING CHC POPS TO THE SOUTH AND LIKELY POPS TO THE NORTH...CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. HOPEFULLY GUIDANCE WILL LINE UP WITHIN
THE COMING DAYS.

TRENDING WITH THE GFS/CMC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY
BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER EARLY SUN MORNING
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF LOWER CATEGORIES THIS EVENING.

INTO TONIGHT...
VFR WILL GRADUALLY DIP TO MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. LOW CIGS WITH SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL
START IN NE MA AND SE NH...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE
SW...REACHING THE CT VALLEY AND S COASTS THE LATEST.
THEN...MVFR/IFR REMAINS IN CONTROL THE REST OF THE NIGHT UNDER
PERSISTENT NELY WINDS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
GENERALLY MORE OF THE SAME...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
MAY IMPROVE TO VFR MID MORNING-MID DAY. SOME SHOWERS /HEAVIER
THAN THE OVERNIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT NOT TOO HEAVY/ ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS E MA AND RI. ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN EXACT TIMING.  FIRST MVFR CIGS LIKELY 20-22Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR
CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU ALONG THE E COAST BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY TO VFR. FRIDAY WILL BE VFR.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR IN A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT NE ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS 4-5 FT MAINLY OVER THE WATERS
SURROUNDING CAPE ANN. ELSEWHERE...LESS OF A RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH INCREASING RISK FOR DRIZZLE AND FOG
AND LOWER VSBYS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
NE FLOW CONTINUES. THIS PROLONGED NE FETCH WILL YIELD A GRADUALLY
BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD APPROACH 5 FT BY LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY ONCE AGAIN BE NEEDED FOR THIS RISK.
OTHERWISE...NE WIND GUSTS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COMBINED WITH EASTERLY SWELL WILL HELP
BUILD SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR
BOTH SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX. LINGERING SEAS OF 5 OR 6 FEET WILL KEEP
THE SCA IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASE IN GUSTS...CLOSE TO 30 KTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT...NEAR 7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DOODY/DUNTEN
MARINE...DOODY/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KGYX 291909
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
309 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. THE CIRCULATION
BETWEEN THESE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE GULF
OF MAINE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH A COOL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW IN ITS WAKE.
EXPECT AN EXPANDING AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT...ALONG WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTHERN
AND COASTAL SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING CLOUDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG
WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THERE
COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AT TIMES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BY TO OUR NORTH. HIGHS WILL
ONLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN
RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SOME IMPROVEMENT...IT
REMAINS QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH CLEARING THERE WILL BE AS SFC FRONT
REMAINS STALLED OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND...AND 500MB LOW TRACKS OVER
NEW ENGLAND. SFC FLOW WILL HOLD NE AND WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE ADVECTING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH OVER
LABRADOR AND THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE...THE EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL
STILL PRODUCE SOME UPSLOPING OVER THE FOOTHILLS. AND COULD PRODUCE
A FEW LIGHT SHRA OR SPOTTY DZ...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. SHOULD
BE ENOUGH MIXING AS THE COLD AIR LYR DEEPENS...AND THE MIXING WILL
ACTUALLY ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS THAN TUE...MAINLY 60 TO
65 IN MOST SPOTS. THE CT VLY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MOST SUNNY AND
THE WARMEST AS THE DOWNSLOPE DRIES THINGS OUT.

ON THU...COMPACT AND WEAK 500MB REX BLOCK IS OVER THE
REGION. AGAIN WILL LIKE SEE SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT MOST PLACES
WILL SEE P/SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS AGAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. BY FRIDAY THE BLOCK BREAKS DOWN AND LOW HEAD EAST
ALLOWING FOR A MORE S FLOW TO DEVELOP...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS
ON THE SUNNIER OTHER...OTHER THAN CIRRUS LATE...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.

NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST FRI NIGHT...AS IMPRESSIVE
CLOSED 500MB LOW DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST BY SATURDAY AND THEN
TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE AND SHIFTS NE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY....WHILE MAIN UPPR LVL HEADS NE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY.
THIS SHOULD BRING A DECENT RAFL INTO THE REGION...AT LEAST JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT OR SAT NIGHT. 12Z EURO EVEN MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN PRIOR RUNS AND CLEARS THINGS OUT QUICKLY SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS PRES IN FORM THE S BY MONDAY.



&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...A FEW GUSTS FROM THE NE TO
NR 25 KT THROUGH 22Z VCNTY OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT...THEN DEVELOPING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE AND
FOG TONIGHT WITH IFR AND LCL LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY...IMPROVING
TO MVFR TUESDAY MORNING. A RETURN OF IFR LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT IN
STRATUS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG.


LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER IN DZ/FG TUE MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AT KLEB/KHIE...AND WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER ON TUE
ELSEWHERE. FLIGHT RESTRICITIONS...COULD LINGER IN THESE AREAS WED
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE VFR RETURN FOR THU/FRI. SHRA AND LOW CIGS
WILL LKLY CAUSE RESTRICTIONS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE
MARKEDLY WITH PASSAGE OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KT INTO TONIGHT ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...GUSTY NE FLOW PERSISTS WED INTO THU...BUT SHOULD STAY
BELOW SCA LVLS. SEAS MAY COME UP ABV 5 FT AGAIN ON THU AS SWELL
FROM COASTAL LOW WELL TO THE S MOVES IN. WINDS SHIFT TO S-SW
FRIDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 291909
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
309 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. THE CIRCULATION
BETWEEN THESE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE GULF
OF MAINE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH A COOL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW IN ITS WAKE.
EXPECT AN EXPANDING AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT...ALONG WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTHERN
AND COASTAL SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING CLOUDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG
WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THERE
COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AT TIMES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BY TO OUR NORTH. HIGHS WILL
ONLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN
RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SOME IMPROVEMENT...IT
REMAINS QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH CLEARING THERE WILL BE AS SFC FRONT
REMAINS STALLED OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND...AND 500MB LOW TRACKS OVER
NEW ENGLAND. SFC FLOW WILL HOLD NE AND WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE ADVECTING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH OVER
LABRADOR AND THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE...THE EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL
STILL PRODUCE SOME UPSLOPING OVER THE FOOTHILLS. AND COULD PRODUCE
A FEW LIGHT SHRA OR SPOTTY DZ...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. SHOULD
BE ENOUGH MIXING AS THE COLD AIR LYR DEEPENS...AND THE MIXING WILL
ACTUALLY ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS THAN TUE...MAINLY 60 TO
65 IN MOST SPOTS. THE CT VLY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MOST SUNNY AND
THE WARMEST AS THE DOWNSLOPE DRIES THINGS OUT.

ON THU...COMPACT AND WEAK 500MB REX BLOCK IS OVER THE
REGION. AGAIN WILL LIKE SEE SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT MOST PLACES
WILL SEE P/SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS AGAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. BY FRIDAY THE BLOCK BREAKS DOWN AND LOW HEAD EAST
ALLOWING FOR A MORE S FLOW TO DEVELOP...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS
ON THE SUNNIER OTHER...OTHER THAN CIRRUS LATE...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.

NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST FRI NIGHT...AS IMPRESSIVE
CLOSED 500MB LOW DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST BY SATURDAY AND THEN
TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE AND SHIFTS NE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY....WHILE MAIN UPPR LVL HEADS NE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY.
THIS SHOULD BRING A DECENT RAFL INTO THE REGION...AT LEAST JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT OR SAT NIGHT. 12Z EURO EVEN MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN PRIOR RUNS AND CLEARS THINGS OUT QUICKLY SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS PRES IN FORM THE S BY MONDAY.



&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...A FEW GUSTS FROM THE NE TO
NR 25 KT THROUGH 22Z VCNTY OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT...THEN DEVELOPING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE AND
FOG TONIGHT WITH IFR AND LCL LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY...IMPROVING
TO MVFR TUESDAY MORNING. A RETURN OF IFR LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT IN
STRATUS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG.


LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER IN DZ/FG TUE MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AT KLEB/KHIE...AND WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER ON TUE
ELSEWHERE. FLIGHT RESTRICITIONS...COULD LINGER IN THESE AREAS WED
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE VFR RETURN FOR THU/FRI. SHRA AND LOW CIGS
WILL LKLY CAUSE RESTRICTIONS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE
MARKEDLY WITH PASSAGE OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KT INTO TONIGHT ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...GUSTY NE FLOW PERSISTS WED INTO THU...BUT SHOULD STAY
BELOW SCA LVLS. SEAS MAY COME UP ABV 5 FT AGAIN ON THU AS SWELL
FROM COASTAL LOW WELL TO THE S MOVES IN. WINDS SHIFT TO S-SW
FRIDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CEMPA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291745
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERLIKE WARMTH WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. DROPPING TEMPERATURES WILL BRING
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. USING A MIX OF SFC
OBS AND ISALLOBARS FROM MSAS...IT APPEARS THE FRONT HAS SHIFTED
INTO CENTRAL MA AND IS HUNG UP BETWEEN THE WORCESTER
HILLS/MONADNOCKS AND THE CT VALLEY. IT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ITS
PUSH TO THE E EVEN THOUGH THE COLDER AIR IS SHALLOW...BUT NOT
SHALLOW ENOUGH FOR TRUE COLD AIR DAMMING THEREFORE...EXPECT IT TO
BE S...SW OF THE AREA BY EVENING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
1032 MB ANTICYCLONE EASTERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA LATER TODAY. THIS SENDS A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH...THEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IT
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A WARM DAY GIVEN THE MILD START THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER NOT QUITE AS WARM AS PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS TODAY 75 TO
80 BEFORE TEMPS DROP THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE 70S AND INTO THE 60S.

THIS WILL BE A TYPICAL BACKDOOR FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
E-NE AND GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH OR SO. NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS A
SPRING BACKDOOR FRONT AS WATER TEMPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE REMAIN
IN THE L60S...COMPARED TO WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S DURING
THE SPRING. COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY DRIZZLE IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE REGION ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENING. THIS RESULTS IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
COOLER WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY...

LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COUPLED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD THE
RISK OF A FEW LOW TOP SHOWERS AND/OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE...WITH
HIGHEST RISK ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.
COULD TURN OUT TO BE COOLER AS 2 METER TEMPS FROM NAM/GFS AND SREF
ALL INDICATE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE U50S OVER NORTHEAST MA AND
SOUTHWEST NH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
  MOST OF THE WEEK
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOK OCCUR FROM WED INTO THU
* UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST CONTINUES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RATHER WIDE SOLUTION SPREAD THROUGH MOST
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH GENERAL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SIGNALED
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MARITIMES AND EASTERN QUEBEC WITH A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE
REGION TO BEGIN THIS PERIOD. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWING SOME
AGREEMENT AT LEAST WITH THE UPPER PATTERN AS H5 TROUGH DIGS OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLC COAST. BROAD
CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP AROUND MID WEEK...BUT TENDS TO BE
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

HOWEVER...THIS KEEPS A COOL...MOIST FLOW IN PLACE INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES
DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE CLOSE TO THE REGION IN THE ONSHORE
FLOW. THIS ALSO LEAVES QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL FALL AND WHERE IT WILL OCCUR. AT THIS POINT...HAVE CARRIED
ONLY LIGHT QPF...AS IT LOOKS LIKE NOT TOO MUCH ENERGY OR LIFT WILL
BE IN PLACE. MOST OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE SOME FORCING WITH ONSHORE
FLOW ALONG WITH DIURNAL INFLUENCES.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...BUT SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR WED INTO THU WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS. DEPENDING UPON MOVEMENT OF THE BROAD CUTOFF UPPER
LOW...MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE APPROACH
FROM THE W LATE THIS WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND. TIMING IS IN
QUESTION THOUGH.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...NE WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED...BRINGING IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. BEST LIFT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE
BY THIS TIME...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD SHOWERS TO OCCUR WITH
ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. WILL ALSO SEE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY
FOG. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM DEVELOPING BROAD
CUTOFF LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS LOOKS
TO COMBINE WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW TO BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...MAINLY SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO HELP TO DEVELOP THE SHOWERS. CURRENT
THINKING ON QPF IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW MAY SEE A BIT MORE OVER CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BLUSTERY NE WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE THOUGH... ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT PLYMOUTH SOUTH TO CAPE
COD AND THE S COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS BOTH DAYS...THOUGH IT WILL PROBABLY FEEL
COOLER DUE TO THE WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...AT LEAST FOR NOW. SOME DRIER AIR WORKS SW OUT OF QUEBEC
AS WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING APPEARS TO WORK DOWN THE COAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REBOUND A BIT...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70...THOUGH A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...DIGGING H5 TROUGH WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...THOUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY ACROSS NY STATE FRI NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POSSIBLE WAVE ON THIS FRONT MAY
APPROACH FRI NIGHT...WITH BEST SHOT OF PRECIP DURING SAT. WINDS
SHIFT AROUND TO S-SW AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM...THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN. STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING THIS SYSTEM WITH WIDE MODEL SOLUTION VARIANCE ON TIMING.
LOOKS LIKE A SWATH OF DECENT QPF...BUT QUESTIONS ON THIS AS WELL
DUE TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIP.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...TIMING OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. FOR NOW...HAVE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE DURING
SAT NIGHT WITH DRIER BUT COOLER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF LOWER CATEGORIES THIS EVENING.

INTO TONIGHT...
VFR WILL GRADUALLY DIP TO MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. LOW CIGS WITH SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL
START IN NE MA AND SE NH...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE
SW...REACHING THE CT VALLEY AND S COASTS THE LATEST.
THEN...MVFR/IFR REMAINS IN CONTROL THE REST OF THE NIGHT UNDER
PERSISTENT NELY WINDS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
GENERALLY MORE OF THE SAME...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
MAY IMPROVE TO VFR MID MORNING-MID DAY. SOME SHOWERS /HEAVIER
THAN THE OVERNIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT NOT TOO HEAVY/ ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS E MA AND RI. ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT.


KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN EXACT TIMING.  FIRST MVFR CIGS LIKELY 20-22Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND
AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU
ALONG THE E COAST...OTHERWISE LOW END VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

TODAY...BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MA WATERS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE FRONT WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NE ALONG WITH A BRIEF BURST OF 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. GREATEST RISK OF 25 KT ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS. THUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSTED FOR THOSE WATERS.

TONIGHT...VSBY MAY LOWER IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN THE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS. NE WINDS SLACKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LARGEST SEAS
ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODEST E-NE WINDS. VSBY MAY BE LIMITED IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BUT SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE. SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT MOST OF THE
NIGHT...THEN SOME 5 FT SEAS MAY DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE NE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
AT TIMES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. E-NE SWELLS CONTINUE TO BUILD...UP
TO 6 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...GUSTS MAY CONTINUE FOR A TIME DURING THU UP TO
25 KT. NE FETCH CONTINUES...WITH SWELLS CONTINUING TO BUILD. MAY
REACH 8 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS OR EVEN HIGHER BY LATE THU
OR FRI.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291745
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERLIKE WARMTH WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. DROPPING TEMPERATURES WILL BRING
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. USING A MIX OF SFC
OBS AND ISALLOBARS FROM MSAS...IT APPEARS THE FRONT HAS SHIFTED
INTO CENTRAL MA AND IS HUNG UP BETWEEN THE WORCESTER
HILLS/MONADNOCKS AND THE CT VALLEY. IT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ITS
PUSH TO THE E EVEN THOUGH THE COLDER AIR IS SHALLOW...BUT NOT
SHALLOW ENOUGH FOR TRUE COLD AIR DAMMING THEREFORE...EXPECT IT TO
BE S...SW OF THE AREA BY EVENING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
1032 MB ANTICYCLONE EASTERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA LATER TODAY. THIS SENDS A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH...THEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IT
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A WARM DAY GIVEN THE MILD START THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER NOT QUITE AS WARM AS PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS TODAY 75 TO
80 BEFORE TEMPS DROP THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE 70S AND INTO THE 60S.

THIS WILL BE A TYPICAL BACKDOOR FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
E-NE AND GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH OR SO. NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS A
SPRING BACKDOOR FRONT AS WATER TEMPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE REMAIN
IN THE L60S...COMPARED TO WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S DURING
THE SPRING. COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY DRIZZLE IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE REGION ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENING. THIS RESULTS IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
COOLER WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY...

LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COUPLED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD THE
RISK OF A FEW LOW TOP SHOWERS AND/OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE...WITH
HIGHEST RISK ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.
COULD TURN OUT TO BE COOLER AS 2 METER TEMPS FROM NAM/GFS AND SREF
ALL INDICATE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE U50S OVER NORTHEAST MA AND
SOUTHWEST NH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
  MOST OF THE WEEK
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOK OCCUR FROM WED INTO THU
* UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST CONTINUES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RATHER WIDE SOLUTION SPREAD THROUGH MOST
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH GENERAL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SIGNALED
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MARITIMES AND EASTERN QUEBEC WITH A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE
REGION TO BEGIN THIS PERIOD. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWING SOME
AGREEMENT AT LEAST WITH THE UPPER PATTERN AS H5 TROUGH DIGS OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLC COAST. BROAD
CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP AROUND MID WEEK...BUT TENDS TO BE
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

HOWEVER...THIS KEEPS A COOL...MOIST FLOW IN PLACE INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES
DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE CLOSE TO THE REGION IN THE ONSHORE
FLOW. THIS ALSO LEAVES QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL FALL AND WHERE IT WILL OCCUR. AT THIS POINT...HAVE CARRIED
ONLY LIGHT QPF...AS IT LOOKS LIKE NOT TOO MUCH ENERGY OR LIFT WILL
BE IN PLACE. MOST OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE SOME FORCING WITH ONSHORE
FLOW ALONG WITH DIURNAL INFLUENCES.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...BUT SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR WED INTO THU WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS. DEPENDING UPON MOVEMENT OF THE BROAD CUTOFF UPPER
LOW...MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE APPROACH
FROM THE W LATE THIS WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND. TIMING IS IN
QUESTION THOUGH.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...NE WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED...BRINGING IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. BEST LIFT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE
BY THIS TIME...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD SHOWERS TO OCCUR WITH
ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. WILL ALSO SEE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY
FOG. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM DEVELOPING BROAD
CUTOFF LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS LOOKS
TO COMBINE WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW TO BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...MAINLY SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO HELP TO DEVELOP THE SHOWERS. CURRENT
THINKING ON QPF IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW MAY SEE A BIT MORE OVER CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BLUSTERY NE WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE THOUGH... ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT PLYMOUTH SOUTH TO CAPE
COD AND THE S COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS BOTH DAYS...THOUGH IT WILL PROBABLY FEEL
COOLER DUE TO THE WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...AT LEAST FOR NOW. SOME DRIER AIR WORKS SW OUT OF QUEBEC
AS WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING APPEARS TO WORK DOWN THE COAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REBOUND A BIT...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70...THOUGH A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...DIGGING H5 TROUGH WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...THOUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY ACROSS NY STATE FRI NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POSSIBLE WAVE ON THIS FRONT MAY
APPROACH FRI NIGHT...WITH BEST SHOT OF PRECIP DURING SAT. WINDS
SHIFT AROUND TO S-SW AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM...THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN. STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING THIS SYSTEM WITH WIDE MODEL SOLUTION VARIANCE ON TIMING.
LOOKS LIKE A SWATH OF DECENT QPF...BUT QUESTIONS ON THIS AS WELL
DUE TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIP.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...TIMING OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. FOR NOW...HAVE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE DURING
SAT NIGHT WITH DRIER BUT COOLER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF LOWER CATEGORIES THIS EVENING.

INTO TONIGHT...
VFR WILL GRADUALLY DIP TO MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. LOW CIGS WITH SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL
START IN NE MA AND SE NH...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE
SW...REACHING THE CT VALLEY AND S COASTS THE LATEST.
THEN...MVFR/IFR REMAINS IN CONTROL THE REST OF THE NIGHT UNDER
PERSISTENT NELY WINDS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
GENERALLY MORE OF THE SAME...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
MAY IMPROVE TO VFR MID MORNING-MID DAY. SOME SHOWERS /HEAVIER
THAN THE OVERNIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT NOT TOO HEAVY/ ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS E MA AND RI. ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT.


KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN EXACT TIMING.  FIRST MVFR CIGS LIKELY 20-22Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND
AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU
ALONG THE E COAST...OTHERWISE LOW END VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

TODAY...BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MA WATERS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE FRONT WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NE ALONG WITH A BRIEF BURST OF 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. GREATEST RISK OF 25 KT ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS. THUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSTED FOR THOSE WATERS.

TONIGHT...VSBY MAY LOWER IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN THE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS. NE WINDS SLACKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LARGEST SEAS
ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODEST E-NE WINDS. VSBY MAY BE LIMITED IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BUT SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE. SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT MOST OF THE
NIGHT...THEN SOME 5 FT SEAS MAY DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE NE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
AT TIMES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. E-NE SWELLS CONTINUE TO BUILD...UP
TO 6 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...GUSTS MAY CONTINUE FOR A TIME DURING THU UP TO
25 KT. NE FETCH CONTINUES...WITH SWELLS CONTINUING TO BUILD. MAY
REACH 8 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS OR EVEN HIGHER BY LATE THU
OR FRI.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT



000
FXUS61 KGYX 291636
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1236 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE AND
HOLD FIRM UNTIL A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION LATE
WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

1235 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE 16Z MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
925 AM...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN TIP OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE AT 13Z AND CONTINUED TO PRESS
SOUTHWESTWARD. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD POPS...SKY
GRIDS...AND TEMPERATURES...FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE
MESONET AS WELL AS SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.

PREV DISC...
630 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST.
ADJUSTED TEMPS AND SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

AS OF 06Z...WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NORTH. AT THIS TIME THE FRONT ISN/T
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY LOW CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION...JUST THE WIND
SHIFT. THE MAIN PUSH OF MUCH COOLER AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
HEAT UP MODESTLY...WITH HIGHS REACHING 70 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS
EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH WHERE COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN EARLIER. ACROSS
SOUTHERNMOST ZONES...ESPECIALLY SWRN NH...TEMPERATURES MAY WORK
THEIR WAY UP TO AROUND 80 DEGREES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM
NE TO SW AS THE REAL PUSH OF COOLER AND MORE DENSE AIR OCCURS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S MIDDAY WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY
50S BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE. THE FRONT IS QUITE SHALLOW
SO DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE PRESENT.
THEREFORE...WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...DRIZZLE AND FOG COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE BY EARLY
EVENING. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BURST OF GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF COOL AIR.
A FEW GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A BRIEF TIME
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG WILL BE THE MAIN THEME TONIGHT WITH
CONTINUING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 40S
AND 50S.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR TUESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
TO BRING HIGH RH VALUES IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT OR SO.
THEREFORE...NOT MUCH IF ANY SUN IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 50S. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE SOUTHERNMOST ZONES AS WELL AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY
WHERE SOME PEEKS OF SUN MAY BOOST TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS THE MID
60S FOR A TIME. WHILE THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY...A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. MORNING FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS LIKELY TO BE PRESENT AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED A CLOSED LOW PRES NEARLY CUT OFF FROM THE
FLOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WED. FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL BE WEAK AND FAIRLY DISORGANIZED...HOWEVER THE COLD POCKET
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR CLOUD COVER AND A
THREAT OF A SHOWER. EVENTUALLY AT LEAST BRIEF SFC RIDGING WILL
CONTROL THE AREA THU INTO FRI.

NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF NWRN CANADA LATE
IN THE WEEK. S/WV TROF WILL HELP TO CARVE OUT A LARGER...MERIDIONAL
ERN TROF WITH DEEP SLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. ATTM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS TIME RANGE. A NARROW AREA OF
FORCING WILL CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SUN...WITH
SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. SEE NO REASON AT THIS POINT TO
DIVERGE FROM THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS POP.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR IN PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. THEREAFTER...SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/DRIZZLE/STRATUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY WHERE IFR/LIFR LIKELY.

LONG TERM...UPPER LOW PRES MEANDERING NEARBY COULD BRING LINGERING
MVFR CIGS TO COASTAL TERMINALS WED. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. AN APPROACHING COLD FNT SAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY
WITH PASSAGE OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MIDDAY. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT WILL
BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP
TO AROUND 8 FT. CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. DEVELOPING LONG DURATION SLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS TO NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FT BY SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

ES



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291343
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
943 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERLIKE WARMTH WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. DROPPING TEMPERATURES WILL BRING
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...

IT/S A TALE OF TWO MOISTURE STREAMS AND A WEAK FOCUS FOR LIFT THIS
MORNING AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE N ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING
UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGS MARINE
MOSISTURE IN FROM THE S. MEANWHILE...OBS AND MSAS CURRENTLY
SUGGEST BACKDOOR-LIKE COLD FRONT REMAINS N OF THE BOX CWA AT THIS
HOUR BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SINK TO THE S THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY A SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO NELY AND COOLER
AIR FROM THE GULF OF MAINE. MEANWHILE...UNTIL IT DOES SO...GRADUAL
CLEARING OF SOME EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER SHOULD STILL ALLOW SFC
TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN SPOTS AS IT WILL LIKELY
TAKE UNTIL THE OVRNIGHT HOURS FOR THE COOLER AIR TO REALLY MOVE
INLAND. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO TEMPS/DWPTS AND SKIES AS OTHER
PARAMETERS ARE ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
1032 MB ANTICYCLONE EASTERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA LATER TODAY. THIS SENDS A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH...THEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IT
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A WARM DAY GIVEN THE MILD START THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER NOT QUITE AS WARM AS PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS TODAY 75 TO
80 BEFORE TEMPS DROP THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE 70S AND INTO THE 60S.

THIS WILL BE A TYPICAL BACKDOOR FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
E-NE AND GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH OR SO. NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS A
SPRING BACKDOOR FRONT AS WATER TEMPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE REMAIN
IN THE L60S...COMPARED TO WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S DURING
THE SPRING. COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY DRIZZLE IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE REGION ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENING. THIS RESULTS IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
COOLER WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY...

LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COUPLED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD THE
RISK OF A FEW LOW TOP SHOWERS AND/OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE...WITH
HIGHEST RISK ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.
COULD TURN OUT TO BE COOLER AS 2 METER TEMPS FROM NAM/GFS AND SREF
ALL INDICATE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE U50S OVER NORTHEAST MA AND
SOUTHWEST NH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
  MOST OF THE WEEK
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOK OCCUR FROM WED INTO THU
* UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST CONTINUES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RATHER WIDE SOLUTION SPREAD THROUGH MOST
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH GENERAL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SIGNALED
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MARITIMES AND EASTERN QUEBEC WITH A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE
REGION TO BEGIN THIS PERIOD. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWING SOME
AGREEMENT AT LEAST WITH THE UPPER PATTERN AS H5 TROUGH DIGS OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLC COAST. BROAD
CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP AROUND MID WEEK...BUT TENDS TO BE
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

HOWEVER...THIS KEEPS A COOL...MOIST FLOW IN PLACE INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES
DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE CLOSE TO THE REGION IN THE ONSHORE
FLOW. THIS ALSO LEAVES QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL FALL AND WHERE IT WILL OCCUR. AT THIS POINT...HAVE CARRIED
ONLY LIGHT QPF...AS IT LOOKS LIKE NOT TOO MUCH ENERGY OR LIFT WILL
BE IN PLACE. MOST OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE SOME FORCING WITH ONSHORE
FLOW ALONG WITH DIURNAL INFLUENCES.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...BUT SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR WED INTO THU WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS. DEPENDING UPON MOVEMENT OF THE BROAD CUTOFF UPPER
LOW...MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE APPROACH
FROM THE W LATE THIS WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND. TIMING IS IN
QUESTION THOUGH.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...NE WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED...BRINGING IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. BEST LIFT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE
BY THIS TIME...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD SHOWERS TO OCCUR WITH
ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. WILL ALSO SEE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY
FOG. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM DEVELOPING BROAD
CUTOFF LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS LOOKS
TO COMBINE WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW TO BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...MAINLY SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO HELP TO DEVELOP THE SHOWERS. CURRENT
THINKING ON QPF IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW MAY SEE A BIT MORE OVER CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BLUSTERY NE WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE THOUGH... ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT PLYMOUTH SOUTH TO CAPE
COD AND THE S COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS BOTH DAYS...THOUGH IT WILL PROBABLY FEEL
COOLER DUE TO THE WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...AT LEAST FOR NOW. SOME DRIER AIR WORKS SW OUT OF QUEBEC
AS WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING APPEARS TO WORK DOWN THE COAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REBOUND A BIT...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70...THOUGH A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...DIGGING H5 TROUGH WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...THOUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY ACROSS NY STATE FRI NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POSSIBLE WAVE ON THIS FRONT MAY
APPROACH FRI NIGHT...WITH BEST SHOT OF PRECIP DURING SAT. WINDS
SHIFT AROUND TO S-SW AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM...THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN. STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING THIS SYSTEM WITH WIDE MODEL SOLUTION VARIANCE ON TIMING.
LOOKS LIKE A SWATH OF DECENT QPF...BUT QUESTIONS ON THIS AS WELL
DUE TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIP.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...TIMING OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. FOR NOW...HAVE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE DURING
SAT NIGHT WITH DRIER BUT COOLER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

THIS MORNING...PATCHY IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CT VALLEY INTO NE
MA AS WELL AS NORMALLY PRONE AREAS OF INTERIOR E MA WILL BURN OFF
BY 14Z-15Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO MIDDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS S ACROSS
REGION SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N/NE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS
AHEAD OF FRONT BUT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND IT...CLOSER
TO 00Z. POST FRONTAL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW SO EXPECT MORE DRIZZLE
TONIGHT RATHER THAN SHOWERS. EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND DROP CIGS TO
MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR. E-NE WINDS WILL ALSO GUST BETWEEN 15-25
KTS OVERNIGHT ESP ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.

TUESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH ONSHORE FLOW. IFR IN THE MORNING
WILL TREND UP TOWARD MVFR. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND
AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU
ALONG THE E COAST...OTHERWISE LOW END VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

TODAY...BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MA WATERS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE FRONT WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NE ALONG WITH A BRIEF BURST OF 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. GREATEST RISK OF 25 KT ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS. THUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSTED FOR THOSE WATERS.

TONIGHT...VSBY MAY LOWER IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN THE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS. NE WINDS SLACKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LARGEST SEAS
ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODEST E-NE WINDS. VSBY MAY BE LIMITED IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BUT SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE. SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT MOST OF THE
NIGHT...THEN SOME 5 FT SEAS MAY DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE NE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
AT TIMES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. E-NE SWELLS CONTINUE TO BUILD...UP
TO 6 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...GUSTS MAY CONTINUE FOR A TIME DURING THU UP TO
25 KT. NE FETCH CONTINUES...WITH SWELLS CONTINUING TO BUILD. MAY
REACH 8 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS OR EVEN HIGHER BY LATE THU
OR FRI.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291343
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
943 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERLIKE WARMTH WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. DROPPING TEMPERATURES WILL BRING
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...

IT/S A TALE OF TWO MOISTURE STREAMS AND A WEAK FOCUS FOR LIFT THIS
MORNING AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE N ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING
UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGS MARINE
MOSISTURE IN FROM THE S. MEANWHILE...OBS AND MSAS CURRENTLY
SUGGEST BACKDOOR-LIKE COLD FRONT REMAINS N OF THE BOX CWA AT THIS
HOUR BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SINK TO THE S THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY A SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO NELY AND COOLER
AIR FROM THE GULF OF MAINE. MEANWHILE...UNTIL IT DOES SO...GRADUAL
CLEARING OF SOME EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER SHOULD STILL ALLOW SFC
TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN SPOTS AS IT WILL LIKELY
TAKE UNTIL THE OVRNIGHT HOURS FOR THE COOLER AIR TO REALLY MOVE
INLAND. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO TEMPS/DWPTS AND SKIES AS OTHER
PARAMETERS ARE ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
1032 MB ANTICYCLONE EASTERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA LATER TODAY. THIS SENDS A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH...THEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IT
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A WARM DAY GIVEN THE MILD START THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER NOT QUITE AS WARM AS PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS TODAY 75 TO
80 BEFORE TEMPS DROP THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE 70S AND INTO THE 60S.

THIS WILL BE A TYPICAL BACKDOOR FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
E-NE AND GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH OR SO. NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS A
SPRING BACKDOOR FRONT AS WATER TEMPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE REMAIN
IN THE L60S...COMPARED TO WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S DURING
THE SPRING. COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY DRIZZLE IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE REGION ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENING. THIS RESULTS IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
COOLER WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY...

LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COUPLED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD THE
RISK OF A FEW LOW TOP SHOWERS AND/OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE...WITH
HIGHEST RISK ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.
COULD TURN OUT TO BE COOLER AS 2 METER TEMPS FROM NAM/GFS AND SREF
ALL INDICATE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE U50S OVER NORTHEAST MA AND
SOUTHWEST NH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
  MOST OF THE WEEK
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOK OCCUR FROM WED INTO THU
* UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST CONTINUES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RATHER WIDE SOLUTION SPREAD THROUGH MOST
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH GENERAL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SIGNALED
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MARITIMES AND EASTERN QUEBEC WITH A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE
REGION TO BEGIN THIS PERIOD. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWING SOME
AGREEMENT AT LEAST WITH THE UPPER PATTERN AS H5 TROUGH DIGS OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLC COAST. BROAD
CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP AROUND MID WEEK...BUT TENDS TO BE
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

HOWEVER...THIS KEEPS A COOL...MOIST FLOW IN PLACE INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES
DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE CLOSE TO THE REGION IN THE ONSHORE
FLOW. THIS ALSO LEAVES QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL FALL AND WHERE IT WILL OCCUR. AT THIS POINT...HAVE CARRIED
ONLY LIGHT QPF...AS IT LOOKS LIKE NOT TOO MUCH ENERGY OR LIFT WILL
BE IN PLACE. MOST OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE SOME FORCING WITH ONSHORE
FLOW ALONG WITH DIURNAL INFLUENCES.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...BUT SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR WED INTO THU WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS. DEPENDING UPON MOVEMENT OF THE BROAD CUTOFF UPPER
LOW...MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE APPROACH
FROM THE W LATE THIS WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND. TIMING IS IN
QUESTION THOUGH.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...NE WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED...BRINGING IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. BEST LIFT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE
BY THIS TIME...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD SHOWERS TO OCCUR WITH
ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. WILL ALSO SEE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY
FOG. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM DEVELOPING BROAD
CUTOFF LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS LOOKS
TO COMBINE WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW TO BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...MAINLY SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO HELP TO DEVELOP THE SHOWERS. CURRENT
THINKING ON QPF IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW MAY SEE A BIT MORE OVER CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BLUSTERY NE WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE THOUGH... ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT PLYMOUTH SOUTH TO CAPE
COD AND THE S COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS BOTH DAYS...THOUGH IT WILL PROBABLY FEEL
COOLER DUE TO THE WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...AT LEAST FOR NOW. SOME DRIER AIR WORKS SW OUT OF QUEBEC
AS WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING APPEARS TO WORK DOWN THE COAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REBOUND A BIT...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70...THOUGH A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...DIGGING H5 TROUGH WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...THOUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY ACROSS NY STATE FRI NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POSSIBLE WAVE ON THIS FRONT MAY
APPROACH FRI NIGHT...WITH BEST SHOT OF PRECIP DURING SAT. WINDS
SHIFT AROUND TO S-SW AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM...THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN. STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING THIS SYSTEM WITH WIDE MODEL SOLUTION VARIANCE ON TIMING.
LOOKS LIKE A SWATH OF DECENT QPF...BUT QUESTIONS ON THIS AS WELL
DUE TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIP.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...TIMING OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. FOR NOW...HAVE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE DURING
SAT NIGHT WITH DRIER BUT COOLER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

THIS MORNING...PATCHY IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CT VALLEY INTO NE
MA AS WELL AS NORMALLY PRONE AREAS OF INTERIOR E MA WILL BURN OFF
BY 14Z-15Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO MIDDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS S ACROSS
REGION SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N/NE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS
AHEAD OF FRONT BUT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND IT...CLOSER
TO 00Z. POST FRONTAL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW SO EXPECT MORE DRIZZLE
TONIGHT RATHER THAN SHOWERS. EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND DROP CIGS TO
MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR. E-NE WINDS WILL ALSO GUST BETWEEN 15-25
KTS OVERNIGHT ESP ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.

TUESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH ONSHORE FLOW. IFR IN THE MORNING
WILL TREND UP TOWARD MVFR. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND
AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU
ALONG THE E COAST...OTHERWISE LOW END VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

TODAY...BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MA WATERS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE FRONT WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NE ALONG WITH A BRIEF BURST OF 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. GREATEST RISK OF 25 KT ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS. THUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSTED FOR THOSE WATERS.

TONIGHT...VSBY MAY LOWER IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN THE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS. NE WINDS SLACKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LARGEST SEAS
ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODEST E-NE WINDS. VSBY MAY BE LIMITED IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BUT SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE. SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT MOST OF THE
NIGHT...THEN SOME 5 FT SEAS MAY DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE NE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
AT TIMES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. E-NE SWELLS CONTINUE TO BUILD...UP
TO 6 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...GUSTS MAY CONTINUE FOR A TIME DURING THU UP TO
25 KT. NE FETCH CONTINUES...WITH SWELLS CONTINUING TO BUILD. MAY
REACH 8 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS OR EVEN HIGHER BY LATE THU
OR FRI.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT



000
FXUS61 KGYX 291340
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
940 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE AND
HOLD FIRM UNTIL A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION LATE
WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

925 AM...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN TIP OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE AT 13Z AND CONTINUED TO PRESS
SOUTHWESTWARD. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD POPS...SKY
GRIDS...AND TEMPERATURES...FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE
MESONET AS WELL AS SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.

PREV DISC...
630 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST.
ADJUSTED TEMPS AND SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

AS OF 06Z...WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NORTH. AT THIS TIME THE FRONT ISN/T
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY LOW CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION...JUST THE WIND
SHIFT. THE MAIN PUSH OF MUCH COOLER AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
HEAT UP MODESTLY...WITH HIGHS REACHING 70 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS
EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH WHERE COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN EARLIER. ACROSS
SOUTHERNMOST ZONES...ESPECIALLY SWRN NH...TEMPERATURES MAY WORK
THEIR WAY UP TO AROUND 80 DEGREES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM
NE TO SW AS THE REAL PUSH OF COOLER AND MORE DENSE AIR OCCURS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S MIDDAY WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY
50S BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE. THE FRONT IS QUITE SHALLOW
SO DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE PRESENT.
THEREFORE...WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...DRIZZLE AND FOG COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE BY EARLY
EVENING. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BURST OF GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF COOL AIR.
A FEW GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A BRIEF TIME
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG WILL BE THE MAIN THEME TONIGHT WITH
CONTINUING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 40S
AND 50S.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR TUESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
TO BRING HIGH RH VALUES IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT OR SO.
THEREFORE...NOT MUCH IF ANY SUN IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 50S. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE SOUTHERNMOST ZONES AS WELL AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY
WHERE SOME PEEKS OF SUN MAY BOOST TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS THE MID
60S FOR A TIME. WHILE THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY...A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. MORNING FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS LIKELY TO BE PRESENT AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED A CLOSED LOW PRES NEARLY CUT OFF FROM THE
FLOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WED. FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL BE WEAK AND FAIRLY DISORGANIZED...HOWEVER THE COLD POCKET
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR CLOUD COVER AND A
THREAT OF A SHOWER. EVENTUALLY AT LEAST BRIEF SFC RIDGING WILL
CONTROL THE AREA THU INTO FRI.

NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF NWRN CANADA LATE
IN THE WEEK. S/WV TROF WILL HELP TO CARVE OUT A LARGER...MERIDIONAL
ERN TROF WITH DEEP SLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. ATTM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS TIME RANGE. A NARROW AREA OF
FORCING WILL CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SUN...WITH
SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. SEE NO REASON AT THIS POINT TO
DIVERGE FROM THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS POP.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR IN PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. THEREAFTER...SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/DRIZZLE/STRATUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY WHERE IFR/LIFR LIKELY.

LONG TERM...UPPER LOW PRES MEANDERING NEARBY COULD BRING LINGERING
MVFR CIGS TO COASTAL TERMINALS WED. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. AN APPROACHING COLD FNT SAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY
WITH PASSAGE OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MIDDAY. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT WILL
BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP
TO AROUND 8 FT. CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. DEVELOPING LONG DURATION SLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS TO NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FT BY SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

ES




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291153
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
753 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERLIKE WARMTH WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. DROPPING TEMPERATURES WILL BRING
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
735 AM UPDATE...
PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR CT VALLEY INTO NE CT IS
STARTING TO LIFT AT 11Z...ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTS ACROSS INTERIOR E
MA. EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE BY 14Z-15Z.

NOTING EITHER CALM OR LIGHT W-NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY MOVED IN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON W-SW WINDS. TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

FORECAST LOOKED PRETTY GOOD...BUT HAVE UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT AND INCORPORATED INTO NEAR TERM TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
1032 MB ANTICYCLONE EASTERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA LATER TODAY. THIS SENDS A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH...THEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IT
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A WARM DAY GIVEN THE MILD START THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER NOT QUITE AS WARM AS PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS TODAY 75 TO
80 BEFORE TEMPS DROP THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE 70S AND INTO THE 60S.

THIS WILL BE A TYPICAL BACKDOOR FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
E-NE AND GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH OR SO. NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS A
SPRING BACKDOOR FRONT AS WATER TEMPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE REMAIN
IN THE L60S...COMPARED TO WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S DURING
THE SPRING. COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY DRIZZLE IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE REGION ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENING. THIS RESULTS IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
COOLER WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY...

LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COUPLED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD THE
RISK OF A FEW LOW TOP SHOWERS AND/OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE...WITH
HIGHEST RISK ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.
COULD TURN OUT TO BE COOLER AS 2 METER TEMPS FROM NAM/GFS AND SREF
ALL INDICATE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE U50S OVER NORTHEAST MA AND
SOUTHWEST NH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
  MOST OF THE WEEK
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOK OCCUR FROM WED INTO THU
* UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST CONTINUES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RATHER WIDE SOLUTION SPREAD THROUGH MOST
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH GENERAL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SIGNALED
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MARITIMES AND EASTERN QUEBEC WITH A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE
REGION TO BEGIN THIS PERIOD. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWING SOME
AGREEMENT AT LEAST WITH THE UPPER PATTERN AS H5 TROUGH DIGS OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLC COAST. BROAD
CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP AROUND MID WEEK...BUT TENDS TO BE
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

HOWEVER...THIS KEEPS A COOL...MOIST FLOW IN PLACE INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES
DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE CLOSE TO THE REGION IN THE ONSHORE
FLOW. THIS ALSO LEAVES QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL FALL AND WHERE IT WILL OCCUR. AT THIS POINT...HAVE CARRIED
ONLY LIGHT QPF...AS IT LOOKS LIKE NOT TOO MUCH ENERGY OR LIFT WILL
BE IN PLACE. MOST OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE SOME FORCING WITH ONSHORE
FLOW ALONG WITH DIURNAL INFLUENCES.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...BUT SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR WED INTO THU WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS. DEPENDING UPON MOVEMENT OF THE BROAD CUTOFF UPPER
LOW...MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE APPROACH
FROM THE W LATE THIS WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND. TIMING IS IN
QUESTION THOUGH.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...NE WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED...BRINGING IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. BEST LIFT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE
BY THIS TIME...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD SHOWERS TO OCCUR WITH
ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. WILL ALSO SEE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY
FOG. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM DEVELOPING BROAD
CUTOFF LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS LOOKS
TO COMBINE WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW TO BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...MAINLY SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO HELP TO DEVELOP THE SHOWERS. CURRENT
THINKING ON QPF IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW MAY SEE A BIT MORE OVER CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BLUSTERY NE WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE THOUGH... ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT PLYMOUTH SOUTH TO CAPE
COD AND THE S COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS BOTH DAYS...THOUGH IT WILL PROBABLY FEEL
COOLER DUE TO THE WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...AT LEAST FOR NOW. SOME DRIER AIR WORKS SW OUT OF QUEBEC
AS WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING APPEARS TO WORK DOWN THE COAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REBOUND A BIT...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70...THOUGH A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...DIGGING H5 TROUGH WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...THOUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY ACROSS NY STATE FRI NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POSSIBLE WAVE ON THIS FRONT MAY
APPROACH FRI NIGHT...WITH BEST SHOT OF PRECIP DURING SAT. WINDS
SHIFT AROUND TO S-SW AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM...THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN. STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING THIS SYSTEM WITH WIDE MODEL SOLUTION VARIANCE ON TIMING.
LOOKS LIKE A SWATH OF DECENT QPF...BUT QUESTIONS ON THIS AS WELL
DUE TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIP.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...TIMING OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. FOR NOW...HAVE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE DURING
SAT NIGHT WITH DRIER BUT COOLER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

THIS MORNING...PATCHY IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CT VALLEY INTO NE
MA AS WELL AS NORMALLY PRONE AREAS OF INTERIOR E MA WILL BURN OFF
BY 14Z-15Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO MIDDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS S ACROSS
REGION SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N/NE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS
AHEAD OF FRONT BUT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND IT...CLOSER
TO 00Z. POST FRONTAL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW SO EXPECT MORE DRIZZLE
TONIGHT RATHER THAN SHOWERS. EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND DROP CIGS TO
MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR. E-NE WINDS WILL ALSO GUST BETWEEN 15-25
KTS OVERNIGHT ESP ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.

TUESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH ONSHORE FLOW. IFR IN THE MORNING
WILL TREND UP TOWARD MVFR. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND
AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU
ALONG THE E COAST...OTHERWISE LOW END VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

TODAY...BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MA WATERS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE FRONT WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NE ALONG WITH A BRIEF BURST OF 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. GREATEST RISK OF 25 KT ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS. THUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSTED FOR THOSE WATERS.

TONIGHT...VSBY MAY LOWER IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN THE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS. NE WINDS SLACKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LARGEST SEAS
ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODEST E-NE WINDS. VSBY MAY BE LIMITED IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BUT SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE. SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT MOST OF THE
NIGHT...THEN SOME 5 FT SEAS MAY DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE NE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
AT TIMES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. E-NE SWELLS CONTINUE TO BUILD...UP
TO 6 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...GUSTS MAY CONTINUE FOR A TIME DURING THU UP TO
25 KT. NE FETCH CONTINUES...WITH SWELLS CONTINUING TO BUILD. MAY
REACH 8 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS OR EVEN HIGHER BY LATE THU
OR FRI.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291153
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
753 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERLIKE WARMTH WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. DROPPING TEMPERATURES WILL BRING
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
735 AM UPDATE...
PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR CT VALLEY INTO NE CT IS
STARTING TO LIFT AT 11Z...ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTS ACROSS INTERIOR E
MA. EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE BY 14Z-15Z.

NOTING EITHER CALM OR LIGHT W-NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY MOVED IN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON W-SW WINDS. TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

FORECAST LOOKED PRETTY GOOD...BUT HAVE UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT AND INCORPORATED INTO NEAR TERM TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
1032 MB ANTICYCLONE EASTERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA LATER TODAY. THIS SENDS A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH...THEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IT
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A WARM DAY GIVEN THE MILD START THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER NOT QUITE AS WARM AS PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS TODAY 75 TO
80 BEFORE TEMPS DROP THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE 70S AND INTO THE 60S.

THIS WILL BE A TYPICAL BACKDOOR FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
E-NE AND GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH OR SO. NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS A
SPRING BACKDOOR FRONT AS WATER TEMPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE REMAIN
IN THE L60S...COMPARED TO WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S DURING
THE SPRING. COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY DRIZZLE IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE REGION ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENING. THIS RESULTS IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
COOLER WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY...

LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COUPLED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD THE
RISK OF A FEW LOW TOP SHOWERS AND/OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE...WITH
HIGHEST RISK ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.
COULD TURN OUT TO BE COOLER AS 2 METER TEMPS FROM NAM/GFS AND SREF
ALL INDICATE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE U50S OVER NORTHEAST MA AND
SOUTHWEST NH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
  MOST OF THE WEEK
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOK OCCUR FROM WED INTO THU
* UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST CONTINUES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RATHER WIDE SOLUTION SPREAD THROUGH MOST
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH GENERAL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SIGNALED
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MARITIMES AND EASTERN QUEBEC WITH A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE
REGION TO BEGIN THIS PERIOD. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWING SOME
AGREEMENT AT LEAST WITH THE UPPER PATTERN AS H5 TROUGH DIGS OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLC COAST. BROAD
CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP AROUND MID WEEK...BUT TENDS TO BE
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

HOWEVER...THIS KEEPS A COOL...MOIST FLOW IN PLACE INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES
DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE CLOSE TO THE REGION IN THE ONSHORE
FLOW. THIS ALSO LEAVES QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL FALL AND WHERE IT WILL OCCUR. AT THIS POINT...HAVE CARRIED
ONLY LIGHT QPF...AS IT LOOKS LIKE NOT TOO MUCH ENERGY OR LIFT WILL
BE IN PLACE. MOST OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE SOME FORCING WITH ONSHORE
FLOW ALONG WITH DIURNAL INFLUENCES.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...BUT SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR WED INTO THU WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS. DEPENDING UPON MOVEMENT OF THE BROAD CUTOFF UPPER
LOW...MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE APPROACH
FROM THE W LATE THIS WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND. TIMING IS IN
QUESTION THOUGH.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...NE WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED...BRINGING IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. BEST LIFT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE
BY THIS TIME...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD SHOWERS TO OCCUR WITH
ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. WILL ALSO SEE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY
FOG. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM DEVELOPING BROAD
CUTOFF LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS LOOKS
TO COMBINE WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW TO BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...MAINLY SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO HELP TO DEVELOP THE SHOWERS. CURRENT
THINKING ON QPF IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW MAY SEE A BIT MORE OVER CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BLUSTERY NE WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE THOUGH... ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT PLYMOUTH SOUTH TO CAPE
COD AND THE S COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS BOTH DAYS...THOUGH IT WILL PROBABLY FEEL
COOLER DUE TO THE WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...AT LEAST FOR NOW. SOME DRIER AIR WORKS SW OUT OF QUEBEC
AS WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING APPEARS TO WORK DOWN THE COAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REBOUND A BIT...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70...THOUGH A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...DIGGING H5 TROUGH WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...THOUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY ACROSS NY STATE FRI NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POSSIBLE WAVE ON THIS FRONT MAY
APPROACH FRI NIGHT...WITH BEST SHOT OF PRECIP DURING SAT. WINDS
SHIFT AROUND TO S-SW AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM...THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN. STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING THIS SYSTEM WITH WIDE MODEL SOLUTION VARIANCE ON TIMING.
LOOKS LIKE A SWATH OF DECENT QPF...BUT QUESTIONS ON THIS AS WELL
DUE TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIP.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...TIMING OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. FOR NOW...HAVE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE DURING
SAT NIGHT WITH DRIER BUT COOLER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

THIS MORNING...PATCHY IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CT VALLEY INTO NE
MA AS WELL AS NORMALLY PRONE AREAS OF INTERIOR E MA WILL BURN OFF
BY 14Z-15Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO MIDDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS S ACROSS
REGION SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N/NE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS
AHEAD OF FRONT BUT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND IT...CLOSER
TO 00Z. POST FRONTAL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW SO EXPECT MORE DRIZZLE
TONIGHT RATHER THAN SHOWERS. EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND DROP CIGS TO
MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR. E-NE WINDS WILL ALSO GUST BETWEEN 15-25
KTS OVERNIGHT ESP ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.

TUESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH ONSHORE FLOW. IFR IN THE MORNING
WILL TREND UP TOWARD MVFR. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND
AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU
ALONG THE E COAST...OTHERWISE LOW END VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

TODAY...BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MA WATERS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE FRONT WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NE ALONG WITH A BRIEF BURST OF 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. GREATEST RISK OF 25 KT ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS. THUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSTED FOR THOSE WATERS.

TONIGHT...VSBY MAY LOWER IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN THE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS. NE WINDS SLACKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LARGEST SEAS
ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODEST E-NE WINDS. VSBY MAY BE LIMITED IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BUT SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE. SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT MOST OF THE
NIGHT...THEN SOME 5 FT SEAS MAY DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE NE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
AT TIMES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. E-NE SWELLS CONTINUE TO BUILD...UP
TO 6 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...GUSTS MAY CONTINUE FOR A TIME DURING THU UP TO
25 KT. NE FETCH CONTINUES...WITH SWELLS CONTINUING TO BUILD. MAY
REACH 8 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS OR EVEN HIGHER BY LATE THU
OR FRI.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291153
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
753 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERLIKE WARMTH WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. DROPPING TEMPERATURES WILL BRING
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
735 AM UPDATE...
PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR CT VALLEY INTO NE CT IS
STARTING TO LIFT AT 11Z...ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTS ACROSS INTERIOR E
MA. EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE BY 14Z-15Z.

NOTING EITHER CALM OR LIGHT W-NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY MOVED IN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON W-SW WINDS. TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

FORECAST LOOKED PRETTY GOOD...BUT HAVE UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT AND INCORPORATED INTO NEAR TERM TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
1032 MB ANTICYCLONE EASTERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA LATER TODAY. THIS SENDS A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH...THEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IT
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A WARM DAY GIVEN THE MILD START THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER NOT QUITE AS WARM AS PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS TODAY 75 TO
80 BEFORE TEMPS DROP THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE 70S AND INTO THE 60S.

THIS WILL BE A TYPICAL BACKDOOR FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
E-NE AND GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH OR SO. NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS A
SPRING BACKDOOR FRONT AS WATER TEMPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE REMAIN
IN THE L60S...COMPARED TO WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S DURING
THE SPRING. COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY DRIZZLE IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE REGION ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENING. THIS RESULTS IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
COOLER WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY...

LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COUPLED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD THE
RISK OF A FEW LOW TOP SHOWERS AND/OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE...WITH
HIGHEST RISK ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.
COULD TURN OUT TO BE COOLER AS 2 METER TEMPS FROM NAM/GFS AND SREF
ALL INDICATE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE U50S OVER NORTHEAST MA AND
SOUTHWEST NH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
  MOST OF THE WEEK
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOK OCCUR FROM WED INTO THU
* UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST CONTINUES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RATHER WIDE SOLUTION SPREAD THROUGH MOST
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH GENERAL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SIGNALED
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MARITIMES AND EASTERN QUEBEC WITH A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE
REGION TO BEGIN THIS PERIOD. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWING SOME
AGREEMENT AT LEAST WITH THE UPPER PATTERN AS H5 TROUGH DIGS OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLC COAST. BROAD
CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP AROUND MID WEEK...BUT TENDS TO BE
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

HOWEVER...THIS KEEPS A COOL...MOIST FLOW IN PLACE INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES
DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE CLOSE TO THE REGION IN THE ONSHORE
FLOW. THIS ALSO LEAVES QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL FALL AND WHERE IT WILL OCCUR. AT THIS POINT...HAVE CARRIED
ONLY LIGHT QPF...AS IT LOOKS LIKE NOT TOO MUCH ENERGY OR LIFT WILL
BE IN PLACE. MOST OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE SOME FORCING WITH ONSHORE
FLOW ALONG WITH DIURNAL INFLUENCES.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...BUT SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR WED INTO THU WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS. DEPENDING UPON MOVEMENT OF THE BROAD CUTOFF UPPER
LOW...MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE APPROACH
FROM THE W LATE THIS WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND. TIMING IS IN
QUESTION THOUGH.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...NE WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED...BRINGING IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. BEST LIFT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE
BY THIS TIME...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD SHOWERS TO OCCUR WITH
ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. WILL ALSO SEE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY
FOG. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM DEVELOPING BROAD
CUTOFF LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS LOOKS
TO COMBINE WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW TO BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...MAINLY SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO HELP TO DEVELOP THE SHOWERS. CURRENT
THINKING ON QPF IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW MAY SEE A BIT MORE OVER CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BLUSTERY NE WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE THOUGH... ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT PLYMOUTH SOUTH TO CAPE
COD AND THE S COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS BOTH DAYS...THOUGH IT WILL PROBABLY FEEL
COOLER DUE TO THE WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...AT LEAST FOR NOW. SOME DRIER AIR WORKS SW OUT OF QUEBEC
AS WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING APPEARS TO WORK DOWN THE COAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REBOUND A BIT...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70...THOUGH A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...DIGGING H5 TROUGH WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...THOUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY ACROSS NY STATE FRI NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POSSIBLE WAVE ON THIS FRONT MAY
APPROACH FRI NIGHT...WITH BEST SHOT OF PRECIP DURING SAT. WINDS
SHIFT AROUND TO S-SW AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM...THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN. STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING THIS SYSTEM WITH WIDE MODEL SOLUTION VARIANCE ON TIMING.
LOOKS LIKE A SWATH OF DECENT QPF...BUT QUESTIONS ON THIS AS WELL
DUE TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIP.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...TIMING OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. FOR NOW...HAVE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE DURING
SAT NIGHT WITH DRIER BUT COOLER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

THIS MORNING...PATCHY IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CT VALLEY INTO NE
MA AS WELL AS NORMALLY PRONE AREAS OF INTERIOR E MA WILL BURN OFF
BY 14Z-15Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO MIDDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS S ACROSS
REGION SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N/NE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS
AHEAD OF FRONT BUT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND IT...CLOSER
TO 00Z. POST FRONTAL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW SO EXPECT MORE DRIZZLE
TONIGHT RATHER THAN SHOWERS. EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND DROP CIGS TO
MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR. E-NE WINDS WILL ALSO GUST BETWEEN 15-25
KTS OVERNIGHT ESP ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.

TUESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH ONSHORE FLOW. IFR IN THE MORNING
WILL TREND UP TOWARD MVFR. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND
AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU
ALONG THE E COAST...OTHERWISE LOW END VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

TODAY...BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MA WATERS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE FRONT WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NE ALONG WITH A BRIEF BURST OF 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. GREATEST RISK OF 25 KT ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS. THUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSTED FOR THOSE WATERS.

TONIGHT...VSBY MAY LOWER IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN THE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS. NE WINDS SLACKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LARGEST SEAS
ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODEST E-NE WINDS. VSBY MAY BE LIMITED IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BUT SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE. SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT MOST OF THE
NIGHT...THEN SOME 5 FT SEAS MAY DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE NE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
AT TIMES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. E-NE SWELLS CONTINUE TO BUILD...UP
TO 6 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...GUSTS MAY CONTINUE FOR A TIME DURING THU UP TO
25 KT. NE FETCH CONTINUES...WITH SWELLS CONTINUING TO BUILD. MAY
REACH 8 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS OR EVEN HIGHER BY LATE THU
OR FRI.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291153
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
753 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERLIKE WARMTH WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. DROPPING TEMPERATURES WILL BRING
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
735 AM UPDATE...
PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR CT VALLEY INTO NE CT IS
STARTING TO LIFT AT 11Z...ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTS ACROSS INTERIOR E
MA. EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE BY 14Z-15Z.

NOTING EITHER CALM OR LIGHT W-NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY MOVED IN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON W-SW WINDS. TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

FORECAST LOOKED PRETTY GOOD...BUT HAVE UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT AND INCORPORATED INTO NEAR TERM TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
1032 MB ANTICYCLONE EASTERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA LATER TODAY. THIS SENDS A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH...THEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IT
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A WARM DAY GIVEN THE MILD START THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER NOT QUITE AS WARM AS PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS TODAY 75 TO
80 BEFORE TEMPS DROP THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE 70S AND INTO THE 60S.

THIS WILL BE A TYPICAL BACKDOOR FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
E-NE AND GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH OR SO. NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS A
SPRING BACKDOOR FRONT AS WATER TEMPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE REMAIN
IN THE L60S...COMPARED TO WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S DURING
THE SPRING. COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY DRIZZLE IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE REGION ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENING. THIS RESULTS IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
COOLER WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY...

LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COUPLED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD THE
RISK OF A FEW LOW TOP SHOWERS AND/OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE...WITH
HIGHEST RISK ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.
COULD TURN OUT TO BE COOLER AS 2 METER TEMPS FROM NAM/GFS AND SREF
ALL INDICATE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE U50S OVER NORTHEAST MA AND
SOUTHWEST NH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
  MOST OF THE WEEK
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOK OCCUR FROM WED INTO THU
* UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST CONTINUES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RATHER WIDE SOLUTION SPREAD THROUGH MOST
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH GENERAL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SIGNALED
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MARITIMES AND EASTERN QUEBEC WITH A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE
REGION TO BEGIN THIS PERIOD. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWING SOME
AGREEMENT AT LEAST WITH THE UPPER PATTERN AS H5 TROUGH DIGS OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLC COAST. BROAD
CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP AROUND MID WEEK...BUT TENDS TO BE
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

HOWEVER...THIS KEEPS A COOL...MOIST FLOW IN PLACE INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES
DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE CLOSE TO THE REGION IN THE ONSHORE
FLOW. THIS ALSO LEAVES QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL FALL AND WHERE IT WILL OCCUR. AT THIS POINT...HAVE CARRIED
ONLY LIGHT QPF...AS IT LOOKS LIKE NOT TOO MUCH ENERGY OR LIFT WILL
BE IN PLACE. MOST OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE SOME FORCING WITH ONSHORE
FLOW ALONG WITH DIURNAL INFLUENCES.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...BUT SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR WED INTO THU WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS. DEPENDING UPON MOVEMENT OF THE BROAD CUTOFF UPPER
LOW...MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE APPROACH
FROM THE W LATE THIS WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND. TIMING IS IN
QUESTION THOUGH.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...NE WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED...BRINGING IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. BEST LIFT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE
BY THIS TIME...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD SHOWERS TO OCCUR WITH
ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. WILL ALSO SEE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY
FOG. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM DEVELOPING BROAD
CUTOFF LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS LOOKS
TO COMBINE WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW TO BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...MAINLY SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO HELP TO DEVELOP THE SHOWERS. CURRENT
THINKING ON QPF IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW MAY SEE A BIT MORE OVER CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BLUSTERY NE WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE THOUGH... ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT PLYMOUTH SOUTH TO CAPE
COD AND THE S COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS BOTH DAYS...THOUGH IT WILL PROBABLY FEEL
COOLER DUE TO THE WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...AT LEAST FOR NOW. SOME DRIER AIR WORKS SW OUT OF QUEBEC
AS WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING APPEARS TO WORK DOWN THE COAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REBOUND A BIT...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70...THOUGH A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...DIGGING H5 TROUGH WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...THOUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY ACROSS NY STATE FRI NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POSSIBLE WAVE ON THIS FRONT MAY
APPROACH FRI NIGHT...WITH BEST SHOT OF PRECIP DURING SAT. WINDS
SHIFT AROUND TO S-SW AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM...THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN. STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING THIS SYSTEM WITH WIDE MODEL SOLUTION VARIANCE ON TIMING.
LOOKS LIKE A SWATH OF DECENT QPF...BUT QUESTIONS ON THIS AS WELL
DUE TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIP.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...TIMING OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. FOR NOW...HAVE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE DURING
SAT NIGHT WITH DRIER BUT COOLER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

THIS MORNING...PATCHY IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CT VALLEY INTO NE
MA AS WELL AS NORMALLY PRONE AREAS OF INTERIOR E MA WILL BURN OFF
BY 14Z-15Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO MIDDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS S ACROSS
REGION SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N/NE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS
AHEAD OF FRONT BUT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND IT...CLOSER
TO 00Z. POST FRONTAL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW SO EXPECT MORE DRIZZLE
TONIGHT RATHER THAN SHOWERS. EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND DROP CIGS TO
MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR. E-NE WINDS WILL ALSO GUST BETWEEN 15-25
KTS OVERNIGHT ESP ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.

TUESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH ONSHORE FLOW. IFR IN THE MORNING
WILL TREND UP TOWARD MVFR. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND
AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU
ALONG THE E COAST...OTHERWISE LOW END VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

TODAY...BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MA WATERS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE FRONT WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NE ALONG WITH A BRIEF BURST OF 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. GREATEST RISK OF 25 KT ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS. THUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSTED FOR THOSE WATERS.

TONIGHT...VSBY MAY LOWER IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN THE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS. NE WINDS SLACKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LARGEST SEAS
ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODEST E-NE WINDS. VSBY MAY BE LIMITED IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BUT SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE. SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT MOST OF THE
NIGHT...THEN SOME 5 FT SEAS MAY DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE NE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
AT TIMES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. E-NE SWELLS CONTINUE TO BUILD...UP
TO 6 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...GUSTS MAY CONTINUE FOR A TIME DURING THU UP TO
25 KT. NE FETCH CONTINUES...WITH SWELLS CONTINUING TO BUILD. MAY
REACH 8 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS OR EVEN HIGHER BY LATE THU
OR FRI.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT



000
FXUS61 KGYX 291036
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
637 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE AND
HOLD FIRM UNTIL A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION LATE
WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. ADJUSTED TEMPS
AND SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

AS OF 06Z...WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NORTH. AT THIS TIME THE FRONT ISN/T
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY LOW CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION...JUST THE WIND
SHIFT. THE MAIN PUSH OF MUCH COOLER AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
HEAT UP MODESTLY...WITH HIGHS REACHING 70 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS
EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH WHERE COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN EARLIER. ACROSS
SOUTHERNMOST ZONES...ESPECIALLY SWRN NH...TEMPERATURES MAY WORK
THEIR WAY UP TO AROUND 80 DEGREES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM
NE TO SW AS THE REAL PUSH OF COOLER AND MORE DENSE AIR OCCURS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S MIDDAY WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY
50S BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE. THE FRONT IS QUITE SHALLOW
SO DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE PRESENT.
THEREFORE...WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...DRIZZLE AND FOG COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE BY EARLY
EVENING. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BURST OF GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF COOL AIR.
A FEW GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A BRIEF TIME
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG WILL BE THE MAIN THEME TONIGHT WITH
CONTINUING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 40S
AND 50S.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR TUESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
TO BRING HIGH RH VALUES IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT OR SO.
THEREFORE...NOT MUCH IF ANY SUN IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 50S. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE SOUTHERNMOST ZONES AS WELL AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY
WHERE SOME PEEKS OF SUN MAY BOOST TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS THE MID
60S FOR A TIME. WHILE THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY...A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. MORNING FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS LIKELY TO BE PRESENT AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED A CLOSED LOW PRES NEARLY CUT OFF FROM THE
FLOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WED. FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL BE WEAK AND FAIRLY DISORGANIZED...HOWEVER THE COLD POCKET
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR CLOUD COVER AND A
THREAT OF A SHOWER. EVENTUALLY AT LEAST BRIEF SFC RIDGING WILL
CONTROL THE AREA THU INTO FRI.

NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF NWRN CANADA LATE
IN THE WEEK. S/WV TROF WILL HELP TO CARVE OUT A LARGER...MERIDIONAL
ERN TROF WITH DEEP SLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. ATTM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS TIME RANGE. A NARROW AREA OF
FORCING WILL CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SUN...WITH
SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. SEE NO REASON AT THIS POINT TO
DIVERGE FROM THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS POP.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR IN PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. THEREAFTER...SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/DRIZZLE/STRATUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY WHERE IFR/LIFR LIKELY.

LONG TERM...UPPER LOW PRES MEANDERING NEARBY COULD BRING LINGERING
MVFR CIGS TO COASTAL TERMINALS WED. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. AN APPROACHING COLD FNT SAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY
WITH PASSAGE OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MIDDAY. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT WILL
BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP
TO AROUND 8 FT. CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. DEVELOPING LONG DURATION SLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS TO NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FT BY SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 291036
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
637 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE AND
HOLD FIRM UNTIL A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION LATE
WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. ADJUSTED TEMPS
AND SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

AS OF 06Z...WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NORTH. AT THIS TIME THE FRONT ISN/T
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY LOW CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION...JUST THE WIND
SHIFT. THE MAIN PUSH OF MUCH COOLER AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
HEAT UP MODESTLY...WITH HIGHS REACHING 70 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS
EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH WHERE COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN EARLIER. ACROSS
SOUTHERNMOST ZONES...ESPECIALLY SWRN NH...TEMPERATURES MAY WORK
THEIR WAY UP TO AROUND 80 DEGREES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM
NE TO SW AS THE REAL PUSH OF COOLER AND MORE DENSE AIR OCCURS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S MIDDAY WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY
50S BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE. THE FRONT IS QUITE SHALLOW
SO DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE PRESENT.
THEREFORE...WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...DRIZZLE AND FOG COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE BY EARLY
EVENING. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BURST OF GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF COOL AIR.
A FEW GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A BRIEF TIME
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG WILL BE THE MAIN THEME TONIGHT WITH
CONTINUING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 40S
AND 50S.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR TUESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
TO BRING HIGH RH VALUES IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT OR SO.
THEREFORE...NOT MUCH IF ANY SUN IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 50S. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE SOUTHERNMOST ZONES AS WELL AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY
WHERE SOME PEEKS OF SUN MAY BOOST TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS THE MID
60S FOR A TIME. WHILE THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY...A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. MORNING FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS LIKELY TO BE PRESENT AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED A CLOSED LOW PRES NEARLY CUT OFF FROM THE
FLOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WED. FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL BE WEAK AND FAIRLY DISORGANIZED...HOWEVER THE COLD POCKET
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR CLOUD COVER AND A
THREAT OF A SHOWER. EVENTUALLY AT LEAST BRIEF SFC RIDGING WILL
CONTROL THE AREA THU INTO FRI.

NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF NWRN CANADA LATE
IN THE WEEK. S/WV TROF WILL HELP TO CARVE OUT A LARGER...MERIDIONAL
ERN TROF WITH DEEP SLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. ATTM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS TIME RANGE. A NARROW AREA OF
FORCING WILL CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SUN...WITH
SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. SEE NO REASON AT THIS POINT TO
DIVERGE FROM THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS POP.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR IN PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. THEREAFTER...SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/DRIZZLE/STRATUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY WHERE IFR/LIFR LIKELY.

LONG TERM...UPPER LOW PRES MEANDERING NEARBY COULD BRING LINGERING
MVFR CIGS TO COASTAL TERMINALS WED. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. AN APPROACHING COLD FNT SAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY
WITH PASSAGE OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MIDDAY. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT WILL
BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP
TO AROUND 8 FT. CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. DEVELOPING LONG DURATION SLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS TO NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FT BY SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290914
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
514 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERLIKE WARMTH WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...DROPPING TEMPERATURES...BRING
CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN APPROACHING FRONT
WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

PREDAWN HOURS...
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR CT VALLEY THIS MORNING AND THE
I-495 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN MA. THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF A FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PREVAILS AS DEW
PTS IN THE U50S AND L60S ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT W-SW
WIND PRECLUDE COOLER TEMPS.

AFTER SUNRISE...
1032 MB ANTICYCLONE OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING
BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA LATER TODAY. THIS SENDS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH...THEN ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A WARM DAY GIVEN THE MILD START THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER NOT QUITE AS WARM AS PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS
TODAY 75 TO 80 BEFORE TEMPS DROP THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE 70S AND
INTO THE 60S.

THIS WILL BE A TYPICAL BACKDOOR FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
E-NE AND GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH OR SO. NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS A
SPRING BACKDOOR FRONT AS WATER TEMPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE REMAIN
IN THE L60S...COMPARED TO WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S DURING
THE SPRING. COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY DRIZZLE IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE REGION ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENING. THIS RESULTS IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
COOLER WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY...

LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COUPLED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD THE
RISK OF A FEW LOW TOP SHOWERS AND/OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE...WITH
HIGHEST RISK ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.
COULD TURN OUT TO BE COOLER AS 2 METER TEMPS FROM NAM/GFS AND SREF
ALL INDICATE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE U50S OVER NORTHEAST MA AND
SOUTHWEST NH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
  MOST OF THE WEEK
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOK OCCUR FROM WED INTO THU
* UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST CONTINUES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RATHER WIDE SOLUTION SPREAD THROUGH MOST
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH GENERAL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SIGNALED
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MARITIMES AND EASTERN QUEBEC WITH A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE
REGION TO BEGIN THIS PERIOD. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWING SOME
AGREEMENT AT LEAST WITH THE UPPER PATTERN AS H5 TROUGH DIGS OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLC COAST. BROAD
CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP AROUND MID WEEK...BUT TENDS TO BE
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

HOWEVER...THIS KEEPS A COOL...MOIST FLOW IN PLACE INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES
DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE CLOSE TO THE REGION IN THE ONSHORE
FLOW. THIS ALSO LEAVES QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL FALL AND WHERE IT WILL OCCUR. AT THIS POINT...HAVE CARRIED
ONLY LIGHT QPF...AS IT LOOKS LIKE NOT TOO MUCH ENERGY OR LIFT WILL
BE IN PLACE. MOST OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE SOME FORCING WITH ONSHORE
FLOW ALONG WITH DIURNAL INFLUENCES.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...BUT SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR WED INTO THU WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS. DEPENDING UPON MOVEMENT OF THE BROAD CUTOFF UPPER
LOW...MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE APPROACH
FROM THE W LATE THIS WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND. TIMING IS IN
QUESTION THOUGH.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...NE WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED...BRINGING IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. BEST LIFT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE
BY THIS TIME...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD SHOWERS TO OCCUR WITH
ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. WILL ALSO SEE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY
FOG. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM DEVELOPING BROAD
CUTOFF LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS LOOKS
TO COMBINE WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW TO BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...MAINLY SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO HELP TO DEVELOP THE SHOWERS. CURRENT
THINKING ON QPF IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW MAY SEE A BIT MORE OVER CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BLUSTERY NE WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE THOUGH... ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT PLYMOUTH SOUTH TO CAPE
COD AND THE S COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS BOTH DAYS...THOUGH IT WILL PROBABLY FEEL
COOLER DUE TO THE WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...AT LEAST FOR NOW. SOME DRIER AIR WORKS SW OUT OF QUEBEC
AS WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING APPEARS TO WORK DOWN THE COAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REBOUND A BIT...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70...THOUGH A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...DIGGING H5 TROUGH WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...THOUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY ACROSS NY STATE FRI NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POSSIBLE WAVE ON THIS FRONT MAY
APPROACH FRI NIGHT...WITH BEST SHOT OF PRECIP DURING SAT. WINDS
SHIFT AROUND TO S-SW AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM...THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN. STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING THIS SYSTEM WITH WIDE MODEL SOLUTION VARIANCE ON TIMING.
LOOKS LIKE A SWATH OF DECENT QPF...BUT QUESTIONS ON THIS AS WELL
DUE TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIP.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...TIMING OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. FOR NOW...HAVE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE DURING
SAT NIGHT WITH DRIER BUT COOLER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

THRU 12Z...
LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN PATCHY FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL
BURN OFF A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS S ACROSS REGION
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N/NE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS AHEAD OF
FRONT BUT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND IT...CLOSER TO 00Z.
POST FRONTAL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW SO EXPECT MORE DRIZZLE TONIGHT
RATHER THAN SHOWERS. EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND DROP CIGS TO MVFR
WITH ISOLATED IFR. E-NE WINDS WILL ALSO GUST BETWEEN 15-25 KTS
OVERNIGHT ESP ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.

TUE...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH ONSHORE FLOW. IFR IN THE MORNING WILL
TREND UP TOWARD MVFR. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND
AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU
ALONG THE E COAST...OTHERWISE LOW END VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

TODAY...BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MA WATERS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE FRONT WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NE ALONG WITH A BRIEF BURST OF 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. GREATEST RISK OF 25 KT ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS. THUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSTED FOR THOSE WATERS.

TONIGHT...VSBY MAY LOWER IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN THE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS. NE WINDS SLACKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LARGEST SEAS
ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODEST E-NE WINDS. VSBY MAY BE LIMITED IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BUT SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE. SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT MOST OF THE
NIGHT...THEN SOME 5 FT SEAS MAY DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE NE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
AT TIMES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. E-NE SWELLS CONTINUE TO BUILD...UP
TO 6 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...GUSTS MAY CONTINUE FOR A TIME DURING THU UP TO
25 KT. NE FETCH CONTINUES...WITH SWELLS CONTINUING TO BUILD. MAY
REACH 8 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS OR EVEN HIGHER BY LATE THU
OR FRI.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290914
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
514 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERLIKE WARMTH WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...DROPPING TEMPERATURES...BRING
CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN APPROACHING FRONT
WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

PREDAWN HOURS...
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR CT VALLEY THIS MORNING AND THE
I-495 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN MA. THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF A FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PREVAILS AS DEW
PTS IN THE U50S AND L60S ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT W-SW
WIND PRECLUDE COOLER TEMPS.

AFTER SUNRISE...
1032 MB ANTICYCLONE OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING
BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA LATER TODAY. THIS SENDS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH...THEN ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A WARM DAY GIVEN THE MILD START THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER NOT QUITE AS WARM AS PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS
TODAY 75 TO 80 BEFORE TEMPS DROP THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE 70S AND
INTO THE 60S.

THIS WILL BE A TYPICAL BACKDOOR FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
E-NE AND GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH OR SO. NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS A
SPRING BACKDOOR FRONT AS WATER TEMPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE REMAIN
IN THE L60S...COMPARED TO WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S DURING
THE SPRING. COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY DRIZZLE IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE REGION ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENING. THIS RESULTS IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
COOLER WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY...

LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COUPLED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD THE
RISK OF A FEW LOW TOP SHOWERS AND/OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE...WITH
HIGHEST RISK ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.
COULD TURN OUT TO BE COOLER AS 2 METER TEMPS FROM NAM/GFS AND SREF
ALL INDICATE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE U50S OVER NORTHEAST MA AND
SOUTHWEST NH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
  MOST OF THE WEEK
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOK OCCUR FROM WED INTO THU
* UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST CONTINUES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RATHER WIDE SOLUTION SPREAD THROUGH MOST
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH GENERAL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SIGNALED
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MARITIMES AND EASTERN QUEBEC WITH A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE
REGION TO BEGIN THIS PERIOD. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWING SOME
AGREEMENT AT LEAST WITH THE UPPER PATTERN AS H5 TROUGH DIGS OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLC COAST. BROAD
CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP AROUND MID WEEK...BUT TENDS TO BE
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

HOWEVER...THIS KEEPS A COOL...MOIST FLOW IN PLACE INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES
DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE CLOSE TO THE REGION IN THE ONSHORE
FLOW. THIS ALSO LEAVES QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL FALL AND WHERE IT WILL OCCUR. AT THIS POINT...HAVE CARRIED
ONLY LIGHT QPF...AS IT LOOKS LIKE NOT TOO MUCH ENERGY OR LIFT WILL
BE IN PLACE. MOST OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE SOME FORCING WITH ONSHORE
FLOW ALONG WITH DIURNAL INFLUENCES.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...BUT SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR WED INTO THU WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS. DEPENDING UPON MOVEMENT OF THE BROAD CUTOFF UPPER
LOW...MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE APPROACH
FROM THE W LATE THIS WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND. TIMING IS IN
QUESTION THOUGH.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...NE WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED...BRINGING IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. BEST LIFT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE
BY THIS TIME...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD SHOWERS TO OCCUR WITH
ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. WILL ALSO SEE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY
FOG. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM DEVELOPING BROAD
CUTOFF LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS LOOKS
TO COMBINE WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW TO BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...MAINLY SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO HELP TO DEVELOP THE SHOWERS. CURRENT
THINKING ON QPF IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW MAY SEE A BIT MORE OVER CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BLUSTERY NE WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE THOUGH... ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT PLYMOUTH SOUTH TO CAPE
COD AND THE S COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS BOTH DAYS...THOUGH IT WILL PROBABLY FEEL
COOLER DUE TO THE WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...AT LEAST FOR NOW. SOME DRIER AIR WORKS SW OUT OF QUEBEC
AS WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING APPEARS TO WORK DOWN THE COAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REBOUND A BIT...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70...THOUGH A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...DIGGING H5 TROUGH WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...THOUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY ACROSS NY STATE FRI NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POSSIBLE WAVE ON THIS FRONT MAY
APPROACH FRI NIGHT...WITH BEST SHOT OF PRECIP DURING SAT. WINDS
SHIFT AROUND TO S-SW AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM...THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN. STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING THIS SYSTEM WITH WIDE MODEL SOLUTION VARIANCE ON TIMING.
LOOKS LIKE A SWATH OF DECENT QPF...BUT QUESTIONS ON THIS AS WELL
DUE TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIP.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...TIMING OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. FOR NOW...HAVE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE DURING
SAT NIGHT WITH DRIER BUT COOLER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

THRU 12Z...
LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN PATCHY FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL
BURN OFF A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS S ACROSS REGION
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N/NE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS AHEAD OF
FRONT BUT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND IT...CLOSER TO 00Z.
POST FRONTAL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW SO EXPECT MORE DRIZZLE TONIGHT
RATHER THAN SHOWERS. EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND DROP CIGS TO MVFR
WITH ISOLATED IFR. E-NE WINDS WILL ALSO GUST BETWEEN 15-25 KTS
OVERNIGHT ESP ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.

TUE...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH ONSHORE FLOW. IFR IN THE MORNING WILL
TREND UP TOWARD MVFR. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND
AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU
ALONG THE E COAST...OTHERWISE LOW END VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

TODAY...BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MA WATERS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE FRONT WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NE ALONG WITH A BRIEF BURST OF 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. GREATEST RISK OF 25 KT ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS. THUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSTED FOR THOSE WATERS.

TONIGHT...VSBY MAY LOWER IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN THE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS. NE WINDS SLACKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LARGEST SEAS
ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODEST E-NE WINDS. VSBY MAY BE LIMITED IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BUT SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE. SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT MOST OF THE
NIGHT...THEN SOME 5 FT SEAS MAY DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE NE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
AT TIMES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. E-NE SWELLS CONTINUE TO BUILD...UP
TO 6 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...GUSTS MAY CONTINUE FOR A TIME DURING THU UP TO
25 KT. NE FETCH CONTINUES...WITH SWELLS CONTINUING TO BUILD. MAY
REACH 8 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS OR EVEN HIGHER BY LATE THU
OR FRI.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290914
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
514 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERLIKE WARMTH WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...DROPPING TEMPERATURES...BRING
CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN APPROACHING FRONT
WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

PREDAWN HOURS...
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR CT VALLEY THIS MORNING AND THE
I-495 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN MA. THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF A FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PREVAILS AS DEW
PTS IN THE U50S AND L60S ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT W-SW
WIND PRECLUDE COOLER TEMPS.

AFTER SUNRISE...
1032 MB ANTICYCLONE OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING
BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA LATER TODAY. THIS SENDS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH...THEN ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A WARM DAY GIVEN THE MILD START THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER NOT QUITE AS WARM AS PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS
TODAY 75 TO 80 BEFORE TEMPS DROP THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE 70S AND
INTO THE 60S.

THIS WILL BE A TYPICAL BACKDOOR FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
E-NE AND GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH OR SO. NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS A
SPRING BACKDOOR FRONT AS WATER TEMPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE REMAIN
IN THE L60S...COMPARED TO WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S DURING
THE SPRING. COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY DRIZZLE IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE REGION ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENING. THIS RESULTS IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
COOLER WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY...

LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COUPLED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD THE
RISK OF A FEW LOW TOP SHOWERS AND/OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE...WITH
HIGHEST RISK ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.
COULD TURN OUT TO BE COOLER AS 2 METER TEMPS FROM NAM/GFS AND SREF
ALL INDICATE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE U50S OVER NORTHEAST MA AND
SOUTHWEST NH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
  MOST OF THE WEEK
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOK OCCUR FROM WED INTO THU
* UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST CONTINUES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RATHER WIDE SOLUTION SPREAD THROUGH MOST
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH GENERAL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SIGNALED
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MARITIMES AND EASTERN QUEBEC WITH A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE
REGION TO BEGIN THIS PERIOD. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWING SOME
AGREEMENT AT LEAST WITH THE UPPER PATTERN AS H5 TROUGH DIGS OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLC COAST. BROAD
CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP AROUND MID WEEK...BUT TENDS TO BE
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

HOWEVER...THIS KEEPS A COOL...MOIST FLOW IN PLACE INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES
DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE CLOSE TO THE REGION IN THE ONSHORE
FLOW. THIS ALSO LEAVES QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL FALL AND WHERE IT WILL OCCUR. AT THIS POINT...HAVE CARRIED
ONLY LIGHT QPF...AS IT LOOKS LIKE NOT TOO MUCH ENERGY OR LIFT WILL
BE IN PLACE. MOST OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE SOME FORCING WITH ONSHORE
FLOW ALONG WITH DIURNAL INFLUENCES.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...BUT SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR WED INTO THU WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS. DEPENDING UPON MOVEMENT OF THE BROAD CUTOFF UPPER
LOW...MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE APPROACH
FROM THE W LATE THIS WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND. TIMING IS IN
QUESTION THOUGH.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...NE WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED...BRINGING IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. BEST LIFT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE
BY THIS TIME...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD SHOWERS TO OCCUR WITH
ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. WILL ALSO SEE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY
FOG. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM DEVELOPING BROAD
CUTOFF LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS LOOKS
TO COMBINE WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW TO BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...MAINLY SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO HELP TO DEVELOP THE SHOWERS. CURRENT
THINKING ON QPF IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW MAY SEE A BIT MORE OVER CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BLUSTERY NE WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE THOUGH... ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT PLYMOUTH SOUTH TO CAPE
COD AND THE S COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS BOTH DAYS...THOUGH IT WILL PROBABLY FEEL
COOLER DUE TO THE WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...AT LEAST FOR NOW. SOME DRIER AIR WORKS SW OUT OF QUEBEC
AS WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING APPEARS TO WORK DOWN THE COAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REBOUND A BIT...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70...THOUGH A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...DIGGING H5 TROUGH WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...THOUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY ACROSS NY STATE FRI NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POSSIBLE WAVE ON THIS FRONT MAY
APPROACH FRI NIGHT...WITH BEST SHOT OF PRECIP DURING SAT. WINDS
SHIFT AROUND TO S-SW AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM...THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN. STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING THIS SYSTEM WITH WIDE MODEL SOLUTION VARIANCE ON TIMING.
LOOKS LIKE A SWATH OF DECENT QPF...BUT QUESTIONS ON THIS AS WELL
DUE TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIP.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...TIMING OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. FOR NOW...HAVE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE DURING
SAT NIGHT WITH DRIER BUT COOLER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

THRU 12Z...
LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN PATCHY FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL
BURN OFF A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS S ACROSS REGION
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N/NE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS AHEAD OF
FRONT BUT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND IT...CLOSER TO 00Z.
POST FRONTAL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW SO EXPECT MORE DRIZZLE TONIGHT
RATHER THAN SHOWERS. EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND DROP CIGS TO MVFR
WITH ISOLATED IFR. E-NE WINDS WILL ALSO GUST BETWEEN 15-25 KTS
OVERNIGHT ESP ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.

TUE...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH ONSHORE FLOW. IFR IN THE MORNING WILL
TREND UP TOWARD MVFR. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND
AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU
ALONG THE E COAST...OTHERWISE LOW END VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

TODAY...BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MA WATERS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE FRONT WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NE ALONG WITH A BRIEF BURST OF 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. GREATEST RISK OF 25 KT ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS. THUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSTED FOR THOSE WATERS.

TONIGHT...VSBY MAY LOWER IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN THE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS. NE WINDS SLACKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LARGEST SEAS
ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODEST E-NE WINDS. VSBY MAY BE LIMITED IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BUT SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE. SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT MOST OF THE
NIGHT...THEN SOME 5 FT SEAS MAY DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE NE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
AT TIMES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. E-NE SWELLS CONTINUE TO BUILD...UP
TO 6 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...GUSTS MAY CONTINUE FOR A TIME DURING THU UP TO
25 KT. NE FETCH CONTINUES...WITH SWELLS CONTINUING TO BUILD. MAY
REACH 8 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS OR EVEN HIGHER BY LATE THU
OR FRI.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290914
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
514 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERLIKE WARMTH WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...DROPPING TEMPERATURES...BRING
CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN APPROACHING FRONT
WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

PREDAWN HOURS...
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR CT VALLEY THIS MORNING AND THE
I-495 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN MA. THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF A FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PREVAILS AS DEW
PTS IN THE U50S AND L60S ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT W-SW
WIND PRECLUDE COOLER TEMPS.

AFTER SUNRISE...
1032 MB ANTICYCLONE OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING
BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA LATER TODAY. THIS SENDS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH...THEN ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A WARM DAY GIVEN THE MILD START THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER NOT QUITE AS WARM AS PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS
TODAY 75 TO 80 BEFORE TEMPS DROP THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE 70S AND
INTO THE 60S.

THIS WILL BE A TYPICAL BACKDOOR FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
E-NE AND GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH OR SO. NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS A
SPRING BACKDOOR FRONT AS WATER TEMPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE REMAIN
IN THE L60S...COMPARED TO WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S DURING
THE SPRING. COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY DRIZZLE IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE REGION ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENING. THIS RESULTS IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
COOLER WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY...

LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COUPLED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD THE
RISK OF A FEW LOW TOP SHOWERS AND/OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE...WITH
HIGHEST RISK ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.
COULD TURN OUT TO BE COOLER AS 2 METER TEMPS FROM NAM/GFS AND SREF
ALL INDICATE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE U50S OVER NORTHEAST MA AND
SOUTHWEST NH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
  MOST OF THE WEEK
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOK OCCUR FROM WED INTO THU
* UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST CONTINUES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RATHER WIDE SOLUTION SPREAD THROUGH MOST
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH GENERAL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SIGNALED
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MARITIMES AND EASTERN QUEBEC WITH A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE
REGION TO BEGIN THIS PERIOD. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWING SOME
AGREEMENT AT LEAST WITH THE UPPER PATTERN AS H5 TROUGH DIGS OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLC COAST. BROAD
CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP AROUND MID WEEK...BUT TENDS TO BE
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

HOWEVER...THIS KEEPS A COOL...MOIST FLOW IN PLACE INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES
DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE CLOSE TO THE REGION IN THE ONSHORE
FLOW. THIS ALSO LEAVES QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL FALL AND WHERE IT WILL OCCUR. AT THIS POINT...HAVE CARRIED
ONLY LIGHT QPF...AS IT LOOKS LIKE NOT TOO MUCH ENERGY OR LIFT WILL
BE IN PLACE. MOST OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE SOME FORCING WITH ONSHORE
FLOW ALONG WITH DIURNAL INFLUENCES.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...BUT SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR WED INTO THU WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS. DEPENDING UPON MOVEMENT OF THE BROAD CUTOFF UPPER
LOW...MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE APPROACH
FROM THE W LATE THIS WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND. TIMING IS IN
QUESTION THOUGH.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...NE WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED...BRINGING IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. BEST LIFT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE
BY THIS TIME...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD SHOWERS TO OCCUR WITH
ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. WILL ALSO SEE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY
FOG. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM DEVELOPING BROAD
CUTOFF LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS LOOKS
TO COMBINE WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW TO BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...MAINLY SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO HELP TO DEVELOP THE SHOWERS. CURRENT
THINKING ON QPF IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW MAY SEE A BIT MORE OVER CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BLUSTERY NE WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE THOUGH... ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT PLYMOUTH SOUTH TO CAPE
COD AND THE S COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS BOTH DAYS...THOUGH IT WILL PROBABLY FEEL
COOLER DUE TO THE WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...AT LEAST FOR NOW. SOME DRIER AIR WORKS SW OUT OF QUEBEC
AS WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING APPEARS TO WORK DOWN THE COAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REBOUND A BIT...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70...THOUGH A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...DIGGING H5 TROUGH WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...THOUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY ACROSS NY STATE FRI NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POSSIBLE WAVE ON THIS FRONT MAY
APPROACH FRI NIGHT...WITH BEST SHOT OF PRECIP DURING SAT. WINDS
SHIFT AROUND TO S-SW AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM...THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN. STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING THIS SYSTEM WITH WIDE MODEL SOLUTION VARIANCE ON TIMING.
LOOKS LIKE A SWATH OF DECENT QPF...BUT QUESTIONS ON THIS AS WELL
DUE TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIP.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...TIMING OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. FOR NOW...HAVE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE DURING
SAT NIGHT WITH DRIER BUT COOLER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

THRU 12Z...
LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN PATCHY FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL
BURN OFF A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS S ACROSS REGION
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N/NE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS AHEAD OF
FRONT BUT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND IT...CLOSER TO 00Z.
POST FRONTAL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW SO EXPECT MORE DRIZZLE TONIGHT
RATHER THAN SHOWERS. EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND DROP CIGS TO MVFR
WITH ISOLATED IFR. E-NE WINDS WILL ALSO GUST BETWEEN 15-25 KTS
OVERNIGHT ESP ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.

TUE...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH ONSHORE FLOW. IFR IN THE MORNING WILL
TREND UP TOWARD MVFR. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND
AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU
ALONG THE E COAST...OTHERWISE LOW END VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

TODAY...BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MA WATERS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE FRONT WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NE ALONG WITH A BRIEF BURST OF 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. GREATEST RISK OF 25 KT ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS. THUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSTED FOR THOSE WATERS.

TONIGHT...VSBY MAY LOWER IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN THE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS. NE WINDS SLACKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LARGEST SEAS
ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODEST E-NE WINDS. VSBY MAY BE LIMITED IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BUT SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE. SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT MOST OF THE
NIGHT...THEN SOME 5 FT SEAS MAY DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE NE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
AT TIMES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. E-NE SWELLS CONTINUE TO BUILD...UP
TO 6 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...GUSTS MAY CONTINUE FOR A TIME DURING THU UP TO
25 KT. NE FETCH CONTINUES...WITH SWELLS CONTINUING TO BUILD. MAY
REACH 8 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS OR EVEN HIGHER BY LATE THU
OR FRI.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290806
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERLIKE WARMTH WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...DROPPING TEMPERATURES...BRING
CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE AREA TONIGHT. A COOLER NORTHEAST
WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND ONE OR
TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS MAY YIELD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
THE REGION. A FRONT AND POSSIBLY SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

PREDAWN HOURS...

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR CT VALLEY THIS MORNING AND THE I-495
CORRIDOR OF EASTERN MA. THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PREVAILS AS DEW PTS IN THE
U50S AND L60S ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WSW WIND PRECLUDE
COOLER TEMPS.

AFTER SUNRISE...

1032 MB ANTICYCLONE OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING
BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA LATER TODAY. THIS SENDS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH...THEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IT
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A WARM DAY GIVEN THE MILD START THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER NOT QUITE AS WARM AS PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS TODAY 75 TO 80
BEFORE TEMPS DROP THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE 70S AND INTO THE 60S.

THIS WILL BE A TYPICAL BACKDOOR FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE ENE
AND GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH OR SO. NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS A SPRING
BACKDOOR FRONT AS WATER TEMPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE REMAIN IN THE
L60S...COMPARED TO WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S DURING THE SPRING.
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY DRIZZLE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE REGION ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENING. THIS RESULTS IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
COOLER WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY...

LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COUPLED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD THE
RISK OF A FEW LOW TOP SHOWERS AND/OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE...WITH
HIGHEST RISK ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.
COULD TURN OUT TO BE COOLER AS 2 METER TEMPS FROM NAM/GFS AND SREF
ALL INDICATE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE U50S OVER NORTHEAST MA AND
SOUTHWEST NH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HEADLINES...

* BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
  WITH A RISK OF SHOWERS TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF
  THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CONFIDENCE FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE.
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OF A
WEAK TROF AND AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE THREATENING SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND HEADING INTO TUESDAY BUT MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY IN
LOCATION AND STRENGTH. SIMILARLY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT
CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING MID WEEK BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS AND CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN. A
RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY TILT TROF IS ALSO SHOWN BY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO CROSS NEW ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND WITH
POSSIBLY A TRIPLE POINT LOW. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE VARIATION AND
ENOUGH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY TO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
AMOUNT AND DISTRIBUTION OF RAFL WITH THIS SYSTEM.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...THE 12Z GFS RUN DEPICTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAFL ALONG THE S
COAST TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LEAD SHORT WAVE TROF
AHEAD OF THE MORE PRONOUNCED CLOSED LOW...BUT THIS FEATURE IS NOT
REFLECTED NEARLY SO MUCH IN THE NAM AND ENSEMBLES. THE 12Z ECMWF
DOES PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE BUT NOT TO NEARLY THE DEGREE OF THE
GFS. WILL INDICATE CHANCE POPS SOUTHERN ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE
MOST OTHER ZONES WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE ON JUST HOW THIS
FEATURE WILL MANIFAST ITSELF.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER CLOSED LOW IS PROJECTED TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME BUT THE MODELS VARY IN
STRENGTH AND NEARNESS OF SURFACE LOW REFLECTION WITH THE ECMWF
BEING MORE ROBUST THAN THE GFS IN THIS CASE. THE GFS DOES DEPICT A
FAIRLY PRONOUNCED COLD POOL ALOFT WITH TOTAL TOTALS RISING TO NEAR
48. THERE IS CORRESPONDING VARIATIONS IN THE QPF. WILLHIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HELP MINIMIZE ANY DENSE FOG PATCHES BUT
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL LIKELY CLOSE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY 3-5
MILES IN FOG. TEMPERATURES DROPPING A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST
AS OF 7 PM BUT FORECAST MINIMUMS STILL LOOK GOOD. LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

4 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
BOTH PVD AND BDL HAVE BROKEN THEIR RECORDS AND LOGAN WARMED UP TO
87F. DEFINITELY A MORE SUMMER LIKE FEEL OUT THERE TODAY.  PUT
CHANCE POPS UP TO MASSPIKE AND SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH OF THERE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCE RAIN
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DEPARTING LOW ACROSS CAPE AND ISLANDS BUT
OTHERWISE MODELS HAVE SIMILAR TIMING WITH SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE
OVERING ACROSS REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FAIRLY LARGE AMPLIFIED TROF THAT MAY
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT APPROACHES REGION PER ALL MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS. THERE IS A SUGGESTION OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. ACTUAL
DURATION OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN GRID POPS MIGHT IMPLY
ONCE WE ARE ABLE TO BETTER DEFINE THE TIMING. ENOUGH MODEL
DIFFERENCE IN THE DETAILS TO MAKE THE QPF VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.

SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE SYSTEM WILL BE EXISTING THE REGION WITH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS
DRY NOW...THERE IS ENOUGH COMPLEXITY WITH THE SITUATION WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROFS TO KEEP THE DOOR OPEN FOR SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE SUNDAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

THRU 12Z...

LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN PATCHY FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL
BURN OFF A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS S ACROSS REGION
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N/NE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS AHEAD OF
FRONT BUT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND IT...CLOSER TO 00Z.
POST FRONTAL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW SO EXPECT MORE DRIZZLE TONIGHT
RATHER THAN SHOWERS. EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND DROP CIGS TO MVFR
WITH ISOLATED IFR. ENE WINDS WILL ALSO GUST BETWEEN 15-25 KTS
OVERNIGHT ESP ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.

TUE...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH ONSHORE FLOW. IFR IN THE MORNING WILL
TREND UP TOWARD MVFR. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF MVFR
VSBYS IN SHOWERS. AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS
EAST COASTAL SECTIONS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

TODAY...BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MA WATERS FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE FRONT WILL WAIT UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE ALONG
WITH A BRIEF BURST OF 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.
GREATEST RISK OF 25 KT ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS. THUS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY POSTED FOR THOSE WATERS.

TONIGHT...VSBY MAY LOWER IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN THE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS. NE WINDS SLACKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LARGEST SEAS
ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODEST ENE WINDS. VSBY MAY BE LIMITED IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE
AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

THIS WEEK MAY FEATURE A FAIRLY PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A FAIRLY
STRONG SIGNAL FOR E TO NE WIND GUSTS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS AS WELL AS SEAS IN ZONES EXPOSED TO AN EASTERLY FETCH
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. HAVE UPPED SEAS ABOVE WAVE
WATCH GUIDANCE BASED ON EXPERIENCE WITH NE FLOW AND SYNOPTIC
PATTERN RECOGNITION. IF THE MEDIUM RANGES MODELS HAVE A FAIR IDEA
ON THE MID WEEK SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THEN WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SEAS BUILD TO NEAR 10 FEET EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET BY
LATE WEDNESDAY.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...NOCERA/THOMPSON
MARINE...NOCERA/THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290806
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERLIKE WARMTH WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...DROPPING TEMPERATURES...BRING
CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE AREA TONIGHT. A COOLER NORTHEAST
WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND ONE OR
TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS MAY YIELD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
THE REGION. A FRONT AND POSSIBLY SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

PREDAWN HOURS...

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR CT VALLEY THIS MORNING AND THE I-495
CORRIDOR OF EASTERN MA. THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PREVAILS AS DEW PTS IN THE
U50S AND L60S ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WSW WIND PRECLUDE
COOLER TEMPS.

AFTER SUNRISE...

1032 MB ANTICYCLONE OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING
BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA LATER TODAY. THIS SENDS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH...THEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IT
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A WARM DAY GIVEN THE MILD START THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER NOT QUITE AS WARM AS PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS TODAY 75 TO 80
BEFORE TEMPS DROP THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE 70S AND INTO THE 60S.

THIS WILL BE A TYPICAL BACKDOOR FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE ENE
AND GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH OR SO. NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS A SPRING
BACKDOOR FRONT AS WATER TEMPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE REMAIN IN THE
L60S...COMPARED TO WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S DURING THE SPRING.
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY DRIZZLE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE REGION ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENING. THIS RESULTS IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
COOLER WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY...

LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COUPLED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD THE
RISK OF A FEW LOW TOP SHOWERS AND/OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE...WITH
HIGHEST RISK ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.
COULD TURN OUT TO BE COOLER AS 2 METER TEMPS FROM NAM/GFS AND SREF
ALL INDICATE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE U50S OVER NORTHEAST MA AND
SOUTHWEST NH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HEADLINES...

* BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
  WITH A RISK OF SHOWERS TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF
  THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CONFIDENCE FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE.
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OF A
WEAK TROF AND AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE THREATENING SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND HEADING INTO TUESDAY BUT MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY IN
LOCATION AND STRENGTH. SIMILARLY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT
CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING MID WEEK BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS AND CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN. A
RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY TILT TROF IS ALSO SHOWN BY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO CROSS NEW ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND WITH
POSSIBLY A TRIPLE POINT LOW. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE VARIATION AND
ENOUGH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY TO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
AMOUNT AND DISTRIBUTION OF RAFL WITH THIS SYSTEM.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...THE 12Z GFS RUN DEPICTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAFL ALONG THE S
COAST TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LEAD SHORT WAVE TROF
AHEAD OF THE MORE PRONOUNCED CLOSED LOW...BUT THIS FEATURE IS NOT
REFLECTED NEARLY SO MUCH IN THE NAM AND ENSEMBLES. THE 12Z ECMWF
DOES PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE BUT NOT TO NEARLY THE DEGREE OF THE
GFS. WILL INDICATE CHANCE POPS SOUTHERN ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE
MOST OTHER ZONES WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE ON JUST HOW THIS
FEATURE WILL MANIFAST ITSELF.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER CLOSED LOW IS PROJECTED TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME BUT THE MODELS VARY IN
STRENGTH AND NEARNESS OF SURFACE LOW REFLECTION WITH THE ECMWF
BEING MORE ROBUST THAN THE GFS IN THIS CASE. THE GFS DOES DEPICT A
FAIRLY PRONOUNCED COLD POOL ALOFT WITH TOTAL TOTALS RISING TO NEAR
48. THERE IS CORRESPONDING VARIATIONS IN THE QPF. WILLHIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HELP MINIMIZE ANY DENSE FOG PATCHES BUT
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL LIKELY CLOSE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY 3-5
MILES IN FOG. TEMPERATURES DROPPING A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST
AS OF 7 PM BUT FORECAST MINIMUMS STILL LOOK GOOD. LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

4 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
BOTH PVD AND BDL HAVE BROKEN THEIR RECORDS AND LOGAN WARMED UP TO
87F. DEFINITELY A MORE SUMMER LIKE FEEL OUT THERE TODAY.  PUT
CHANCE POPS UP TO MASSPIKE AND SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH OF THERE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCE RAIN
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DEPARTING LOW ACROSS CAPE AND ISLANDS BUT
OTHERWISE MODELS HAVE SIMILAR TIMING WITH SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE
OVERING ACROSS REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FAIRLY LARGE AMPLIFIED TROF THAT MAY
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT APPROACHES REGION PER ALL MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS. THERE IS A SUGGESTION OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. ACTUAL
DURATION OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN GRID POPS MIGHT IMPLY
ONCE WE ARE ABLE TO BETTER DEFINE THE TIMING. ENOUGH MODEL
DIFFERENCE IN THE DETAILS TO MAKE THE QPF VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.

SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE SYSTEM WILL BE EXISTING THE REGION WITH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS
DRY NOW...THERE IS ENOUGH COMPLEXITY WITH THE SITUATION WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROFS TO KEEP THE DOOR OPEN FOR SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE SUNDAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

THRU 12Z...

LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN PATCHY FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL
BURN OFF A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS S ACROSS REGION
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N/NE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS AHEAD OF
FRONT BUT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND IT...CLOSER TO 00Z.
POST FRONTAL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW SO EXPECT MORE DRIZZLE TONIGHT
RATHER THAN SHOWERS. EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND DROP CIGS TO MVFR
WITH ISOLATED IFR. ENE WINDS WILL ALSO GUST BETWEEN 15-25 KTS
OVERNIGHT ESP ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.

TUE...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH ONSHORE FLOW. IFR IN THE MORNING WILL
TREND UP TOWARD MVFR. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF MVFR
VSBYS IN SHOWERS. AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS
EAST COASTAL SECTIONS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

TODAY...BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MA WATERS FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE FRONT WILL WAIT UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE ALONG
WITH A BRIEF BURST OF 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.
GREATEST RISK OF 25 KT ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS. THUS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY POSTED FOR THOSE WATERS.

TONIGHT...VSBY MAY LOWER IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN THE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS. NE WINDS SLACKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LARGEST SEAS
ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODEST ENE WINDS. VSBY MAY BE LIMITED IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE
AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

THIS WEEK MAY FEATURE A FAIRLY PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A FAIRLY
STRONG SIGNAL FOR E TO NE WIND GUSTS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS AS WELL AS SEAS IN ZONES EXPOSED TO AN EASTERLY FETCH
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. HAVE UPPED SEAS ABOVE WAVE
WATCH GUIDANCE BASED ON EXPERIENCE WITH NE FLOW AND SYNOPTIC
PATTERN RECOGNITION. IF THE MEDIUM RANGES MODELS HAVE A FAIR IDEA
ON THE MID WEEK SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THEN WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SEAS BUILD TO NEAR 10 FEET EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET BY
LATE WEDNESDAY.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...NOCERA/THOMPSON
MARINE...NOCERA/THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290806
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERLIKE WARMTH WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...DROPPING TEMPERATURES...BRING
CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE AREA TONIGHT. A COOLER NORTHEAST
WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND ONE OR
TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS MAY YIELD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
THE REGION. A FRONT AND POSSIBLY SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

PREDAWN HOURS...

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR CT VALLEY THIS MORNING AND THE I-495
CORRIDOR OF EASTERN MA. THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PREVAILS AS DEW PTS IN THE
U50S AND L60S ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WSW WIND PRECLUDE
COOLER TEMPS.

AFTER SUNRISE...

1032 MB ANTICYCLONE OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING
BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA LATER TODAY. THIS SENDS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH...THEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IT
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A WARM DAY GIVEN THE MILD START THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER NOT QUITE AS WARM AS PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS TODAY 75 TO 80
BEFORE TEMPS DROP THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE 70S AND INTO THE 60S.

THIS WILL BE A TYPICAL BACKDOOR FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE ENE
AND GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH OR SO. NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS A SPRING
BACKDOOR FRONT AS WATER TEMPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE REMAIN IN THE
L60S...COMPARED TO WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S DURING THE SPRING.
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY DRIZZLE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE REGION ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENING. THIS RESULTS IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
COOLER WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY...

LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COUPLED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD THE
RISK OF A FEW LOW TOP SHOWERS AND/OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE...WITH
HIGHEST RISK ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.
COULD TURN OUT TO BE COOLER AS 2 METER TEMPS FROM NAM/GFS AND SREF
ALL INDICATE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE U50S OVER NORTHEAST MA AND
SOUTHWEST NH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HEADLINES...

* BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
  WITH A RISK OF SHOWERS TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF
  THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CONFIDENCE FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE.
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OF A
WEAK TROF AND AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE THREATENING SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND HEADING INTO TUESDAY BUT MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY IN
LOCATION AND STRENGTH. SIMILARLY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT
CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING MID WEEK BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS AND CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN. A
RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY TILT TROF IS ALSO SHOWN BY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO CROSS NEW ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND WITH
POSSIBLY A TRIPLE POINT LOW. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE VARIATION AND
ENOUGH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY TO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
AMOUNT AND DISTRIBUTION OF RAFL WITH THIS SYSTEM.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...THE 12Z GFS RUN DEPICTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAFL ALONG THE S
COAST TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LEAD SHORT WAVE TROF
AHEAD OF THE MORE PRONOUNCED CLOSED LOW...BUT THIS FEATURE IS NOT
REFLECTED NEARLY SO MUCH IN THE NAM AND ENSEMBLES. THE 12Z ECMWF
DOES PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE BUT NOT TO NEARLY THE DEGREE OF THE
GFS. WILL INDICATE CHANCE POPS SOUTHERN ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE
MOST OTHER ZONES WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE ON JUST HOW THIS
FEATURE WILL MANIFAST ITSELF.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER CLOSED LOW IS PROJECTED TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME BUT THE MODELS VARY IN
STRENGTH AND NEARNESS OF SURFACE LOW REFLECTION WITH THE ECMWF
BEING MORE ROBUST THAN THE GFS IN THIS CASE. THE GFS DOES DEPICT A
FAIRLY PRONOUNCED COLD POOL ALOFT WITH TOTAL TOTALS RISING TO NEAR
48. THERE IS CORRESPONDING VARIATIONS IN THE QPF. WILLHIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HELP MINIMIZE ANY DENSE FOG PATCHES BUT
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL LIKELY CLOSE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY 3-5
MILES IN FOG. TEMPERATURES DROPPING A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST
AS OF 7 PM BUT FORECAST MINIMUMS STILL LOOK GOOD. LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

4 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
BOTH PVD AND BDL HAVE BROKEN THEIR RECORDS AND LOGAN WARMED UP TO
87F. DEFINITELY A MORE SUMMER LIKE FEEL OUT THERE TODAY.  PUT
CHANCE POPS UP TO MASSPIKE AND SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH OF THERE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCE RAIN
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DEPARTING LOW ACROSS CAPE AND ISLANDS BUT
OTHERWISE MODELS HAVE SIMILAR TIMING WITH SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE
OVERING ACROSS REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FAIRLY LARGE AMPLIFIED TROF THAT MAY
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT APPROACHES REGION PER ALL MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS. THERE IS A SUGGESTION OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. ACTUAL
DURATION OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN GRID POPS MIGHT IMPLY
ONCE WE ARE ABLE TO BETTER DEFINE THE TIMING. ENOUGH MODEL
DIFFERENCE IN THE DETAILS TO MAKE THE QPF VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.

SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE SYSTEM WILL BE EXISTING THE REGION WITH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS
DRY NOW...THERE IS ENOUGH COMPLEXITY WITH THE SITUATION WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROFS TO KEEP THE DOOR OPEN FOR SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE SUNDAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

THRU 12Z...

LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN PATCHY FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL
BURN OFF A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS S ACROSS REGION
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N/NE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS AHEAD OF
FRONT BUT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND IT...CLOSER TO 00Z.
POST FRONTAL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW SO EXPECT MORE DRIZZLE TONIGHT
RATHER THAN SHOWERS. EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND DROP CIGS TO MVFR
WITH ISOLATED IFR. ENE WINDS WILL ALSO GUST BETWEEN 15-25 KTS
OVERNIGHT ESP ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.

TUE...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH ONSHORE FLOW. IFR IN THE MORNING WILL
TREND UP TOWARD MVFR. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF MVFR
VSBYS IN SHOWERS. AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS
EAST COASTAL SECTIONS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

TODAY...BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MA WATERS FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE FRONT WILL WAIT UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE ALONG
WITH A BRIEF BURST OF 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.
GREATEST RISK OF 25 KT ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS. THUS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY POSTED FOR THOSE WATERS.

TONIGHT...VSBY MAY LOWER IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN THE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS. NE WINDS SLACKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LARGEST SEAS
ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODEST ENE WINDS. VSBY MAY BE LIMITED IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE
AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

THIS WEEK MAY FEATURE A FAIRLY PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A FAIRLY
STRONG SIGNAL FOR E TO NE WIND GUSTS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS AS WELL AS SEAS IN ZONES EXPOSED TO AN EASTERLY FETCH
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. HAVE UPPED SEAS ABOVE WAVE
WATCH GUIDANCE BASED ON EXPERIENCE WITH NE FLOW AND SYNOPTIC
PATTERN RECOGNITION. IF THE MEDIUM RANGES MODELS HAVE A FAIR IDEA
ON THE MID WEEK SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THEN WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SEAS BUILD TO NEAR 10 FEET EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET BY
LATE WEDNESDAY.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...NOCERA/THOMPSON
MARINE...NOCERA/THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290806
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERLIKE WARMTH WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...DROPPING TEMPERATURES...BRING
CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE AREA TONIGHT. A COOLER NORTHEAST
WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND ONE OR
TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS MAY YIELD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
THE REGION. A FRONT AND POSSIBLY SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

PREDAWN HOURS...

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR CT VALLEY THIS MORNING AND THE I-495
CORRIDOR OF EASTERN MA. THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PREVAILS AS DEW PTS IN THE
U50S AND L60S ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WSW WIND PRECLUDE
COOLER TEMPS.

AFTER SUNRISE...

1032 MB ANTICYCLONE OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING
BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA LATER TODAY. THIS SENDS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH...THEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IT
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A WARM DAY GIVEN THE MILD START THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER NOT QUITE AS WARM AS PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS TODAY 75 TO 80
BEFORE TEMPS DROP THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE 70S AND INTO THE 60S.

THIS WILL BE A TYPICAL BACKDOOR FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE ENE
AND GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH OR SO. NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS A SPRING
BACKDOOR FRONT AS WATER TEMPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE REMAIN IN THE
L60S...COMPARED TO WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S DURING THE SPRING.
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY DRIZZLE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE REGION ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENING. THIS RESULTS IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
COOLER WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY...

LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COUPLED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD THE
RISK OF A FEW LOW TOP SHOWERS AND/OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE...WITH
HIGHEST RISK ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.
COULD TURN OUT TO BE COOLER AS 2 METER TEMPS FROM NAM/GFS AND SREF
ALL INDICATE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE U50S OVER NORTHEAST MA AND
SOUTHWEST NH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HEADLINES...

* BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
  WITH A RISK OF SHOWERS TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF
  THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CONFIDENCE FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE.
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OF A
WEAK TROF AND AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE THREATENING SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND HEADING INTO TUESDAY BUT MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY IN
LOCATION AND STRENGTH. SIMILARLY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT
CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING MID WEEK BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS AND CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN. A
RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY TILT TROF IS ALSO SHOWN BY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO CROSS NEW ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND WITH
POSSIBLY A TRIPLE POINT LOW. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE VARIATION AND
ENOUGH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY TO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
AMOUNT AND DISTRIBUTION OF RAFL WITH THIS SYSTEM.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...THE 12Z GFS RUN DEPICTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAFL ALONG THE S
COAST TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LEAD SHORT WAVE TROF
AHEAD OF THE MORE PRONOUNCED CLOSED LOW...BUT THIS FEATURE IS NOT
REFLECTED NEARLY SO MUCH IN THE NAM AND ENSEMBLES. THE 12Z ECMWF
DOES PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE BUT NOT TO NEARLY THE DEGREE OF THE
GFS. WILL INDICATE CHANCE POPS SOUTHERN ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE
MOST OTHER ZONES WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE ON JUST HOW THIS
FEATURE WILL MANIFAST ITSELF.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER CLOSED LOW IS PROJECTED TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME BUT THE MODELS VARY IN
STRENGTH AND NEARNESS OF SURFACE LOW REFLECTION WITH THE ECMWF
BEING MORE ROBUST THAN THE GFS IN THIS CASE. THE GFS DOES DEPICT A
FAIRLY PRONOUNCED COLD POOL ALOFT WITH TOTAL TOTALS RISING TO NEAR
48. THERE IS CORRESPONDING VARIATIONS IN THE QPF. WILLHIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HELP MINIMIZE ANY DENSE FOG PATCHES BUT
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL LIKELY CLOSE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY 3-5
MILES IN FOG. TEMPERATURES DROPPING A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST
AS OF 7 PM BUT FORECAST MINIMUMS STILL LOOK GOOD. LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

4 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
BOTH PVD AND BDL HAVE BROKEN THEIR RECORDS AND LOGAN WARMED UP TO
87F. DEFINITELY A MORE SUMMER LIKE FEEL OUT THERE TODAY.  PUT
CHANCE POPS UP TO MASSPIKE AND SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH OF THERE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCE RAIN
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DEPARTING LOW ACROSS CAPE AND ISLANDS BUT
OTHERWISE MODELS HAVE SIMILAR TIMING WITH SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE
OVERING ACROSS REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FAIRLY LARGE AMPLIFIED TROF THAT MAY
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT APPROACHES REGION PER ALL MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS. THERE IS A SUGGESTION OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. ACTUAL
DURATION OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN GRID POPS MIGHT IMPLY
ONCE WE ARE ABLE TO BETTER DEFINE THE TIMING. ENOUGH MODEL
DIFFERENCE IN THE DETAILS TO MAKE THE QPF VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.

SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE SYSTEM WILL BE EXISTING THE REGION WITH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS
DRY NOW...THERE IS ENOUGH COMPLEXITY WITH THE SITUATION WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROFS TO KEEP THE DOOR OPEN FOR SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE SUNDAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

THRU 12Z...

LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN PATCHY FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL
BURN OFF A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS S ACROSS REGION
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N/NE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS AHEAD OF
FRONT BUT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND IT...CLOSER TO 00Z.
POST FRONTAL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW SO EXPECT MORE DRIZZLE TONIGHT
RATHER THAN SHOWERS. EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND DROP CIGS TO MVFR
WITH ISOLATED IFR. ENE WINDS WILL ALSO GUST BETWEEN 15-25 KTS
OVERNIGHT ESP ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.

TUE...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH ONSHORE FLOW. IFR IN THE MORNING WILL
TREND UP TOWARD MVFR. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF MVFR
VSBYS IN SHOWERS. AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS
EAST COASTAL SECTIONS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

TODAY...BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MA WATERS FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE FRONT WILL WAIT UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE ALONG
WITH A BRIEF BURST OF 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.
GREATEST RISK OF 25 KT ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS. THUS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY POSTED FOR THOSE WATERS.

TONIGHT...VSBY MAY LOWER IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN THE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS. NE WINDS SLACKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LARGEST SEAS
ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODEST ENE WINDS. VSBY MAY BE LIMITED IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE
AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

THIS WEEK MAY FEATURE A FAIRLY PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A FAIRLY
STRONG SIGNAL FOR E TO NE WIND GUSTS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS AS WELL AS SEAS IN ZONES EXPOSED TO AN EASTERLY FETCH
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. HAVE UPPED SEAS ABOVE WAVE
WATCH GUIDANCE BASED ON EXPERIENCE WITH NE FLOW AND SYNOPTIC
PATTERN RECOGNITION. IF THE MEDIUM RANGES MODELS HAVE A FAIR IDEA
ON THE MID WEEK SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THEN WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SEAS BUILD TO NEAR 10 FEET EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET BY
LATE WEDNESDAY.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...NOCERA/THOMPSON
MARINE...NOCERA/THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KGYX 290650
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
250 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE AND
HOLD FIRM UNTIL A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION LATE
WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NORTH. AT THIS TIME THE FRONT ISN/T
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY LOW CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION...JUST THE WIND
SHIFT. THE MAIN PUSH OF MUCH COOLER AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
HEAT UP MODESTLY...WITH HIGHS REACHING 70 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS
EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH WHERE COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN EARLIER. ACROSS
SOUTHERNMOST ZONES...ESPECIALLY SWRN NH...TEMPERATURES MAY WORK
THEIR WAY UP TO AROUND 80 DEGREES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM
NE TO SW AS THE REAL PUSH OF COOLER AND MORE DENSE AIR OCCURS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S MIDDAY WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY
50S BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE. THE FRONT IS QUITE SHALLOW
SO DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE PRESENT.
THEREFORE...WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...DRIZZLE AND FOG COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE BY EARLY
EVENING. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BURST OF GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF COOL AIR.
A FEW GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A BRIEF TIME
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG WILL BE THE MAIN THEME TONIGHT WITH
CONTINUING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 40S
AND 50S.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR TUESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
TO BRING HIGH RH VALUES IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT OR SO.
THEREFORE...NOT MUCH IF ANY SUN IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 50S. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE SOUTHERNMOST ZONES AS WELL AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY
WHERE SOME PEEKS OF SUN MAY BOOST TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS THE MID
60S FOR A TIME. WHILE THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY...A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. MORNING FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS LIKELY TO BE PRESENT AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED A CLOSED LOW PRES NEARLY CUT OFF FROM THE
FLOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WED. FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL BE WEAK AND FAIRLY DISORGANIZED...HOWEVER THE COLD POCKET
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR CLOUD COVER AND A
THREAT OF A SHOWER. EVENTUALLY AT LEAST BRIEF SFC RIDGING WILL
CONTROL THE AREA THU INTO FRI.

NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF NWRN CANADA LATE
IN THE WEEK. S/WV TROF WILL HELP TO CARVE OUT A LARGER...MERIDIONAL
ERN TROF WITH DEEP SLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. ATTM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS TIME RANGE. A NARROW AREA OF
FORCING WILL CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SUN...WITH
SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. SEE NO REASON AT THIS POINT TO
DIVERGE FROM THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS POP.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR IN PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. THEREAFTER...SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/DRIZZLE/STRATUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY WHERE IFR/LIFR LIKELY.

LONG TERM...UPPER LOW PRES MEANDERING NEARBY COULD BRING LINGERING
MVFR CIGS TO COASTAL TERMINALS WED. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. AN APPROACHING COLD FNT SAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY
WITH PASSAGE OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MIDDAY. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT WILL
BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP
TO AROUND 8 FT. CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. DEVELOPING LONG DURATION SLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS TO NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FT BY SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 290650
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
250 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE AND
HOLD FIRM UNTIL A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION LATE
WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NORTH. AT THIS TIME THE FRONT ISN/T
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY LOW CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION...JUST THE WIND
SHIFT. THE MAIN PUSH OF MUCH COOLER AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
HEAT UP MODESTLY...WITH HIGHS REACHING 70 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS
EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH WHERE COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN EARLIER. ACROSS
SOUTHERNMOST ZONES...ESPECIALLY SWRN NH...TEMPERATURES MAY WORK
THEIR WAY UP TO AROUND 80 DEGREES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM
NE TO SW AS THE REAL PUSH OF COOLER AND MORE DENSE AIR OCCURS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S MIDDAY WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY
50S BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE. THE FRONT IS QUITE SHALLOW
SO DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE PRESENT.
THEREFORE...WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...DRIZZLE AND FOG COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE BY EARLY
EVENING. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BURST OF GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF COOL AIR.
A FEW GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A BRIEF TIME
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG WILL BE THE MAIN THEME TONIGHT WITH
CONTINUING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 40S
AND 50S.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR TUESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
TO BRING HIGH RH VALUES IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT OR SO.
THEREFORE...NOT MUCH IF ANY SUN IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 50S. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE SOUTHERNMOST ZONES AS WELL AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY
WHERE SOME PEEKS OF SUN MAY BOOST TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS THE MID
60S FOR A TIME. WHILE THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY...A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. MORNING FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS LIKELY TO BE PRESENT AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED A CLOSED LOW PRES NEARLY CUT OFF FROM THE
FLOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WED. FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL BE WEAK AND FAIRLY DISORGANIZED...HOWEVER THE COLD POCKET
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR CLOUD COVER AND A
THREAT OF A SHOWER. EVENTUALLY AT LEAST BRIEF SFC RIDGING WILL
CONTROL THE AREA THU INTO FRI.

NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF NWRN CANADA LATE
IN THE WEEK. S/WV TROF WILL HELP TO CARVE OUT A LARGER...MERIDIONAL
ERN TROF WITH DEEP SLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. ATTM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS TIME RANGE. A NARROW AREA OF
FORCING WILL CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SUN...WITH
SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. SEE NO REASON AT THIS POINT TO
DIVERGE FROM THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS POP.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR IN PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. THEREAFTER...SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/DRIZZLE/STRATUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY WHERE IFR/LIFR LIKELY.

LONG TERM...UPPER LOW PRES MEANDERING NEARBY COULD BRING LINGERING
MVFR CIGS TO COASTAL TERMINALS WED. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. AN APPROACHING COLD FNT SAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY
WITH PASSAGE OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MIDDAY. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT WILL
BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP
TO AROUND 8 FT. CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. DEVELOPING LONG DURATION SLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS TO NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FT BY SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 290650
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
250 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE AND
HOLD FIRM UNTIL A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION LATE
WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NORTH. AT THIS TIME THE FRONT ISN/T
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY LOW CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION...JUST THE WIND
SHIFT. THE MAIN PUSH OF MUCH COOLER AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
HEAT UP MODESTLY...WITH HIGHS REACHING 70 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS
EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH WHERE COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN EARLIER. ACROSS
SOUTHERNMOST ZONES...ESPECIALLY SWRN NH...TEMPERATURES MAY WORK
THEIR WAY UP TO AROUND 80 DEGREES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM
NE TO SW AS THE REAL PUSH OF COOLER AND MORE DENSE AIR OCCURS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S MIDDAY WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY
50S BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE. THE FRONT IS QUITE SHALLOW
SO DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE PRESENT.
THEREFORE...WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...DRIZZLE AND FOG COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE BY EARLY
EVENING. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BURST OF GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF COOL AIR.
A FEW GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A BRIEF TIME
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG WILL BE THE MAIN THEME TONIGHT WITH
CONTINUING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 40S
AND 50S.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR TUESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
TO BRING HIGH RH VALUES IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT OR SO.
THEREFORE...NOT MUCH IF ANY SUN IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 50S. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE SOUTHERNMOST ZONES AS WELL AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY
WHERE SOME PEEKS OF SUN MAY BOOST TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS THE MID
60S FOR A TIME. WHILE THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY...A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. MORNING FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS LIKELY TO BE PRESENT AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED A CLOSED LOW PRES NEARLY CUT OFF FROM THE
FLOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WED. FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL BE WEAK AND FAIRLY DISORGANIZED...HOWEVER THE COLD POCKET
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR CLOUD COVER AND A
THREAT OF A SHOWER. EVENTUALLY AT LEAST BRIEF SFC RIDGING WILL
CONTROL THE AREA THU INTO FRI.

NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF NWRN CANADA LATE
IN THE WEEK. S/WV TROF WILL HELP TO CARVE OUT A LARGER...MERIDIONAL
ERN TROF WITH DEEP SLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. ATTM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS TIME RANGE. A NARROW AREA OF
FORCING WILL CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SUN...WITH
SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. SEE NO REASON AT THIS POINT TO
DIVERGE FROM THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS POP.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR IN PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. THEREAFTER...SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/DRIZZLE/STRATUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY WHERE IFR/LIFR LIKELY.

LONG TERM...UPPER LOW PRES MEANDERING NEARBY COULD BRING LINGERING
MVFR CIGS TO COASTAL TERMINALS WED. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. AN APPROACHING COLD FNT SAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY
WITH PASSAGE OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MIDDAY. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT WILL
BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP
TO AROUND 8 FT. CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. DEVELOPING LONG DURATION SLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS TO NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FT BY SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 290650
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
250 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE AND
HOLD FIRM UNTIL A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION LATE
WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NORTH. AT THIS TIME THE FRONT ISN/T
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY LOW CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION...JUST THE WIND
SHIFT. THE MAIN PUSH OF MUCH COOLER AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
HEAT UP MODESTLY...WITH HIGHS REACHING 70 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS
EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH WHERE COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN EARLIER. ACROSS
SOUTHERNMOST ZONES...ESPECIALLY SWRN NH...TEMPERATURES MAY WORK
THEIR WAY UP TO AROUND 80 DEGREES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM
NE TO SW AS THE REAL PUSH OF COOLER AND MORE DENSE AIR OCCURS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S MIDDAY WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY
50S BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE. THE FRONT IS QUITE SHALLOW
SO DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE PRESENT.
THEREFORE...WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...DRIZZLE AND FOG COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE BY EARLY
EVENING. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BURST OF GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF COOL AIR.
A FEW GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A BRIEF TIME
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG WILL BE THE MAIN THEME TONIGHT WITH
CONTINUING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 40S
AND 50S.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR TUESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
TO BRING HIGH RH VALUES IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT OR SO.
THEREFORE...NOT MUCH IF ANY SUN IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 50S. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE SOUTHERNMOST ZONES AS WELL AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY
WHERE SOME PEEKS OF SUN MAY BOOST TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS THE MID
60S FOR A TIME. WHILE THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY...A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. MORNING FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS LIKELY TO BE PRESENT AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED A CLOSED LOW PRES NEARLY CUT OFF FROM THE
FLOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WED. FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL BE WEAK AND FAIRLY DISORGANIZED...HOWEVER THE COLD POCKET
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR CLOUD COVER AND A
THREAT OF A SHOWER. EVENTUALLY AT LEAST BRIEF SFC RIDGING WILL
CONTROL THE AREA THU INTO FRI.

NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF NWRN CANADA LATE
IN THE WEEK. S/WV TROF WILL HELP TO CARVE OUT A LARGER...MERIDIONAL
ERN TROF WITH DEEP SLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. ATTM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS TIME RANGE. A NARROW AREA OF
FORCING WILL CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SUN...WITH
SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. SEE NO REASON AT THIS POINT TO
DIVERGE FROM THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS POP.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR IN PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. THEREAFTER...SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/DRIZZLE/STRATUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY WHERE IFR/LIFR LIKELY.

LONG TERM...UPPER LOW PRES MEANDERING NEARBY COULD BRING LINGERING
MVFR CIGS TO COASTAL TERMINALS WED. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. AN APPROACHING COLD FNT SAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY
WITH PASSAGE OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MIDDAY. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT WILL
BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP
TO AROUND 8 FT. CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. DEVELOPING LONG DURATION SLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS TO NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FT BY SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290557
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
157 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERLIKE WARMTH WILL COME TO AN END TODAY AS A FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...DROPPING TEMPS AND BRING A FEW SHOWERS.
A COOLER NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND ONE OR TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS MAY PASS JUST SOUTH
OF THE REGION FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A FRONT AND POSSIBLY
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

MILD OVERNIGHT IN PROGRESS WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S AT 1 AM! DEW
PTS IN THE U50S AND L60S ARE COMBINING WITH A DECK OF CIRRUS
CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WSW WIND...PRECLUDING TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH.
PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK...THUS NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED
WITH THIS UPDATE.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS WINDS
WILL BE MORE OUT OF THE WEST BUT STILL RELATIVELY LIGHT. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WELL AS THE FOG POTENTIAL. MIN TEMPS
MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. METRO REGIONS OF BOS AND PVD
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S THANKS TO THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT.
PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...ESP IN VALLEY REGIONS.
THE FOG POTENTIAL WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT AS
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD WILL BE LARGER THAN THE PREV NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

TRICKY FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. FIRST THING TO
WATCH IS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND 18Z MONDAY AND PUSH TO THE SOUTH SHORE
BY 00Z. TEMPS WILL WARM IN THE MORNING BUT BY THE AFTERNOON WILL
DROP ESP ACROSS THE MERRIMACK REGION AS WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NE
AND INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT BUT POTENTIAL SEEMS LOW AS THERE IS LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL LIFT. CONTINUE TO THE MENTION
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR NOW.

BY TOMORROW NIGHT A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHARPEN UP AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO
INCREASE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BRING IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIP. THE GFS IS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL WHERE THE NAM HAS NO QPF
FOR MON NIGHT AND THE EC IS LESS AMPLIFIED IN BRINGING THE PRECIP
INTO THE REGION. DID AN OVERALL BLEND IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THEN TONIGHT...BUT STILL WARMER AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPS FROM RADIATING OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
  WITH A RISK OF SHOWERS TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF
  THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CONFIDENCE FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE.
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OF A
WEAK TROF AND AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE THREATENING SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND HEADING INTO TUESDAY BUT MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY IN
LOCATION AND STRENGTH. SIMILARLY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT
CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING MID WEEK BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS AND CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN. A
RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY TILT TROF IS ALSO SHOWN BY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO CROSS NEW ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND WITH
POSSIBLY A TRIPLE POINT LOW. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE VARIATION AND
ENOUGH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY TO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
AMOUNT AND DISTRIBUTION OF RAFL WITH THIS SYSTEM.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...THE 12Z GFS RUN DEPICTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAFL ALONG THE S
COAST TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LEAD SHORT WAVE TROF
AHEAD OF THE MORE PRONOUNCED CLOSED LOW...BUT THIS FEATURE IS NOT
REFLECTED NEARLY SO MUCH IN THE NAM AND ENSEMBLES. THE 12Z ECMWF
DOES PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE BUT NOT TO NEARLY THE DEGREE OF THE
GFS. WILL INDICATE CHANCE POPS SOUTHERN ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE
MOST OTHER ZONES WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE ON JUST HOW THIS
FEATURE WILL MANIFAST ITSELF.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER CLOSED LOW IS PROJECTED TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME BUT THE MODELS VARY IN
STRENGTH AND NEARNESS OF SURFACE LOW REFLECTION WITH THE ECMWF
BEING MORE ROBUST THAN THE GFS IN THIS CASE. THE GFS DOES DEPICT A
FAIRLY PRONOUNCED COLD POOL ALOFT WITH TOTAL TOTALS RISING TO NEAR
48. THERE IS CORRESPONDING VARIATIONS IN THE QPF. WILLHIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HELP MINIMIZE ANY DENSE FOG PATCHES BUT
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL LIKELY CLOSE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY 3-5
MILES IN FOG. TEMPERATURES DROPPING A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST
AS OF 7 PM BUT FORECAST MINIMUMS STILL LOOK GOOD. LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

4 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
BOTH PVD AND BDL HAVE BROKEN THEIR RECORDS AND LOGAN WARMED UP TO
87F. DEFINITELY A MORE SUMMER LIKE FEEL OUT THERE TODAY.  PUT
CHANCE POPS UP TO MASSPIKE AND SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH OF THERE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCE RAIN
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DEPARTING LOW ACROSS CAPE AND ISLANDS BUT
OTHERWISE MODELS HAVE SIMILAR TIMING WITH SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE
OVERING ACROSS REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FAIRLY LARGE AMPLIFIED TROF THAT MAY
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT APPROACHES REGION PER ALL MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS. THERE IS A SUGGESTION OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. ACTUAL
DURATION OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN GRID POPS MIGHT IMPLY
ONCE WE ARE ABLE TO BETTER DEFINE THE TIMING. ENOUGH MODEL
DIFFERENCE IN THE DETAILS TO MAKE THE QPF VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.

SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE SYSTEM WILL BE EXISTING THE REGION WITH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS
DRY NOW...THERE IS ENOUGH COMPLEXITY WITH THE SITUATION WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROFS TO KEEP THE DOOR OPEN FOR SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE SUNDAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

THRU 12Z...

LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN PATCHY FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL
BURN OFF A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS S ACROSS REGION
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N/NE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS AHEAD OF
FRONT BUT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND IT...CLOSER TO 00Z.
POST FRONTAL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW SO EXPECT MORE DRIZZLE TONIGHT
RATHER THAN SHOWERS. EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND DROP CIGS TO MVFR
WITH ISOLATED IFR. ENE WINDS WILL ALSO GUST BETWEEN 15-25 KTS
OVERNIGHT ESP ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.

TUE...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH ONSHORE FLOW. IFR IN THE MORNING WILL
TREND UP TOWARD MVFR. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF MVFR
VSBYS IN SHOWERS. AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS
EAST COASTAL SECTIONS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON.

HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND CALM
SEAS TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT PUSHES S ACROSS WATERS TOMORROW...FIRST NEAR MERRIMACK
RIVER IN MORNING AND PROBABLY NOT REACHING S COAST UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON. SW WINDS GIVE WAY TO WIND SHIFT TO N/NE BEHIND
FRONT...AND MAY REACH 25 KT LATE IN DAY FROM BOSTON TO MERRIMACK
RIVER AS SEAS BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FT. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE
AREAS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THIS WEEK MAY FEATURE A FAIRLY PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A FAIRLY
STRONG SIGNAL FOR E TO NE WIND GUSTS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS AS WELL AS SEAS IN ZONES EXPOSED TO AN EASTERLY FETCH
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. HAVE UPPED SEAS ABOVE WAVE
WATCH GUIDANCE BASED ON EXPERIENCE WITH NE FLOW AND SYNOPTIC
PATTERN RECOGNITION. IF THE MEDIUM RANGES MODELS HAVE A FAIR IDEA
ON THE MID WEEK SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THEN WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SEAS BUILD TO NEAR 10 FEET EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET BY
LATE WEDNESDAY.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...DUNTEN/THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290557
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
157 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERLIKE WARMTH WILL COME TO AN END TODAY AS A FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...DROPPING TEMPS AND BRING A FEW SHOWERS.
A COOLER NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND ONE OR TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS MAY PASS JUST SOUTH
OF THE REGION FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A FRONT AND POSSIBLY
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

MILD OVERNIGHT IN PROGRESS WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S AT 1 AM! DEW
PTS IN THE U50S AND L60S ARE COMBINING WITH A DECK OF CIRRUS
CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WSW WIND...PRECLUDING TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH.
PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK...THUS NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED
WITH THIS UPDATE.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS WINDS
WILL BE MORE OUT OF THE WEST BUT STILL RELATIVELY LIGHT. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WELL AS THE FOG POTENTIAL. MIN TEMPS
MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. METRO REGIONS OF BOS AND PVD
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S THANKS TO THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT.
PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...ESP IN VALLEY REGIONS.
THE FOG POTENTIAL WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT AS
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD WILL BE LARGER THAN THE PREV NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

TRICKY FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. FIRST THING TO
WATCH IS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND 18Z MONDAY AND PUSH TO THE SOUTH SHORE
BY 00Z. TEMPS WILL WARM IN THE MORNING BUT BY THE AFTERNOON WILL
DROP ESP ACROSS THE MERRIMACK REGION AS WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NE
AND INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT BUT POTENTIAL SEEMS LOW AS THERE IS LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL LIFT. CONTINUE TO THE MENTION
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR NOW.

BY TOMORROW NIGHT A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHARPEN UP AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO
INCREASE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BRING IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIP. THE GFS IS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL WHERE THE NAM HAS NO QPF
FOR MON NIGHT AND THE EC IS LESS AMPLIFIED IN BRINGING THE PRECIP
INTO THE REGION. DID AN OVERALL BLEND IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THEN TONIGHT...BUT STILL WARMER AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPS FROM RADIATING OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
  WITH A RISK OF SHOWERS TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF
  THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CONFIDENCE FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE.
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OF A
WEAK TROF AND AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE THREATENING SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND HEADING INTO TUESDAY BUT MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY IN
LOCATION AND STRENGTH. SIMILARLY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT
CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING MID WEEK BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS AND CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN. A
RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY TILT TROF IS ALSO SHOWN BY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO CROSS NEW ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND WITH
POSSIBLY A TRIPLE POINT LOW. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE VARIATION AND
ENOUGH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY TO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
AMOUNT AND DISTRIBUTION OF RAFL WITH THIS SYSTEM.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...THE 12Z GFS RUN DEPICTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAFL ALONG THE S
COAST TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LEAD SHORT WAVE TROF
AHEAD OF THE MORE PRONOUNCED CLOSED LOW...BUT THIS FEATURE IS NOT
REFLECTED NEARLY SO MUCH IN THE NAM AND ENSEMBLES. THE 12Z ECMWF
DOES PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE BUT NOT TO NEARLY THE DEGREE OF THE
GFS. WILL INDICATE CHANCE POPS SOUTHERN ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE
MOST OTHER ZONES WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE ON JUST HOW THIS
FEATURE WILL MANIFAST ITSELF.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER CLOSED LOW IS PROJECTED TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME BUT THE MODELS VARY IN
STRENGTH AND NEARNESS OF SURFACE LOW REFLECTION WITH THE ECMWF
BEING MORE ROBUST THAN THE GFS IN THIS CASE. THE GFS DOES DEPICT A
FAIRLY PRONOUNCED COLD POOL ALOFT WITH TOTAL TOTALS RISING TO NEAR
48. THERE IS CORRESPONDING VARIATIONS IN THE QPF. WILLHIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HELP MINIMIZE ANY DENSE FOG PATCHES BUT
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL LIKELY CLOSE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY 3-5
MILES IN FOG. TEMPERATURES DROPPING A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST
AS OF 7 PM BUT FORECAST MINIMUMS STILL LOOK GOOD. LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

4 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
BOTH PVD AND BDL HAVE BROKEN THEIR RECORDS AND LOGAN WARMED UP TO
87F. DEFINITELY A MORE SUMMER LIKE FEEL OUT THERE TODAY.  PUT
CHANCE POPS UP TO MASSPIKE AND SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH OF THERE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCE RAIN
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DEPARTING LOW ACROSS CAPE AND ISLANDS BUT
OTHERWISE MODELS HAVE SIMILAR TIMING WITH SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE
OVERING ACROSS REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FAIRLY LARGE AMPLIFIED TROF THAT MAY
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT APPROACHES REGION PER ALL MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS. THERE IS A SUGGESTION OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. ACTUAL
DURATION OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN GRID POPS MIGHT IMPLY
ONCE WE ARE ABLE TO BETTER DEFINE THE TIMING. ENOUGH MODEL
DIFFERENCE IN THE DETAILS TO MAKE THE QPF VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.

SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE SYSTEM WILL BE EXISTING THE REGION WITH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS
DRY NOW...THERE IS ENOUGH COMPLEXITY WITH THE SITUATION WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROFS TO KEEP THE DOOR OPEN FOR SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE SUNDAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

THRU 12Z...

LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN PATCHY FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL
BURN OFF A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS S ACROSS REGION
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N/NE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS AHEAD OF
FRONT BUT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND IT...CLOSER TO 00Z.
POST FRONTAL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW SO EXPECT MORE DRIZZLE TONIGHT
RATHER THAN SHOWERS. EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND DROP CIGS TO MVFR
WITH ISOLATED IFR. ENE WINDS WILL ALSO GUST BETWEEN 15-25 KTS
OVERNIGHT ESP ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.

TUE...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH ONSHORE FLOW. IFR IN THE MORNING WILL
TREND UP TOWARD MVFR. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF MVFR
VSBYS IN SHOWERS. AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS
EAST COASTAL SECTIONS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON.

HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND CALM
SEAS TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT PUSHES S ACROSS WATERS TOMORROW...FIRST NEAR MERRIMACK
RIVER IN MORNING AND PROBABLY NOT REACHING S COAST UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON. SW WINDS GIVE WAY TO WIND SHIFT TO N/NE BEHIND
FRONT...AND MAY REACH 25 KT LATE IN DAY FROM BOSTON TO MERRIMACK
RIVER AS SEAS BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FT. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE
AREAS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THIS WEEK MAY FEATURE A FAIRLY PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A FAIRLY
STRONG SIGNAL FOR E TO NE WIND GUSTS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS AS WELL AS SEAS IN ZONES EXPOSED TO AN EASTERLY FETCH
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. HAVE UPPED SEAS ABOVE WAVE
WATCH GUIDANCE BASED ON EXPERIENCE WITH NE FLOW AND SYNOPTIC
PATTERN RECOGNITION. IF THE MEDIUM RANGES MODELS HAVE A FAIR IDEA
ON THE MID WEEK SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THEN WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SEAS BUILD TO NEAR 10 FEET EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET BY
LATE WEDNESDAY.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...DUNTEN/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KGYX 290321 AAC
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1121 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND STALL JUST TO OUR
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SOME STRATUS HAS FORMED OFFSHORE AND
WILL BE SPREADING ALONG THE MIDCOAST SHORTLY. HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD NOT HAMPER FOG/STRATUS FORMATION MUCH OVER
THE CT RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S THIS HOUR AND WILL DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS
DEW POINTS DROP SLIGHTLY AS WELL.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TONIGHT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TO NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR FAR NORTHERN ZONES BUT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT
AND SPOTTY. WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL
SPOTS AND MAY TAKE MOST OF THE MORNING TO BURN OFF AS CLOUDS COME
IN ALOFT. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY MORNING SUN IN SOUTHERN ZONES WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS
AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION. FORCING ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT LIMITED AT BEST BUT GOING WITH LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY
FOR EASTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL SPREAD OCEAN STRATUS INTO THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR ZONES. WARMEST
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE FOUND IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S. FARTHER
TO THE NORTHEAST HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SOCKS IN MONDAY NIGHT AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES. LOOKING FOR AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH
AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE STARTS OFF A BIT ON THE COOL AND DAMP SIDE TUESDAY AS
BACK COLD AIR DAMMING FILLS IN BEHIND BACK DOOR FRONT THAT MOVES
THRU MON NIGHT. DAY WILL START OFF WITH STRONG INVERSION AND COOL NE
FLOW BLO WARMER AIR ALOFT...WHICH WILL MEAN CLOUDS/FOG/DZ IN THE
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. AS
THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE NE AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT WILL
START TO SEE THINGS DRYING OUT AND CLOUDS BREAKING UP FROM NE TO SW
/ACTUALLY AREAS N AND W OF THE MTNS INCLUDING CT VLY MAY SEE SOME
SUN THROUGH OUT THE DAY IN DOWNSLOPE/. COASTAL AREAS AND EASTERLY
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE FOOTHILLS WILL BE STUCK IN THE CLOUDS ALL DAY.
HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 50S MOST PLACES...EXCEPT FOR THE WARMER
DOWNSLOPE AREAS.

BY WED...WE START TO SEE WEAK REX BLOCKING DEVELOP OVER THE NERN
NOAM...WITH LOW TO OUR S AND RIDGE JUST TO OUR N. THIS SHOULD PUT US
IN A SPOT TO GET FAIRLY DECENT WEATHER THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS
THE LOW HOLDS TO OUR S AND MODERATE AIR MOVES IN ALOFT POLEWARD OF
THE 500MB LOW. IN GENERAL...SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50.

BY FRIDAY...START TO SEE THE BLOCK BREAK DOWN AS DEEP 500MB TROUGH
DEEPENS TO OUR W...AND THEN LIFTS NE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS...FOR ABOUT A 12-24 HOUR PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE
TIMING OF THAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER WILL START TUESDAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
AT INLAND TERMINALS TUE AFTERNOON. IFR CONDS LINGER ON THE COAST
INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO VFR WED THRU FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...WILL START OFF AT NEAR SCA LVLS IN NE FLOW TUE...WHICH
WILL GRADUAL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. THEN COULD SEE SEAS RISE ABV 5
FT AROUND THU DUE TO SWELL FROM OCEAN STORM PASSING OT THE SE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290217
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1017 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERLIKE WARMTH WILL COME TO AN END MONDAY AS A FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TOMORROW...DROPPING TEMPS AND BRING A
FEW SHOWERS. A COOLER NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND ONE OR TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS MAY
PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A FRONT AND
POSSIBLY SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. DESPITE LIGHT WINDS AND
THIN/HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT
GIVEN DEW PTS IN THE L60S THIS EVENING. THESE HIGHER DEW PTS WILL
ALSO YIELD PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE WHERE KEENE NH REPORTING
ZERO VSBY AT THE MOMENT. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THESE DETAILS
NICELY SO AGAIN NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS WINDS
WILL BE MORE OUT OF THE WEST BUT STILL RELATIVELY LIGHT. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WELL AS THE FOG POTENTIAL. MIN TEMPS
MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. METRO REGIONS OF BOS AND PVD
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S THANKS TO THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT.
PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...ESP IN VALLEY REGIONS.
THE FOG POTENTIAL WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT AS
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD WILL BE LARGER THAN THE PREV NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

TRICKY FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. FIRST THING TO
WATCH IS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND 18Z MONDAY AND PUSH TO THE SOUTH SHORE
BY 00Z. TEMPS WILL WARM IN THE MORNING BUT BY THE AFTERNOON WILL
DROP ESP ACROSS THE MERRIMACK REGION AS WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NE
AND INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT BUT POTENTIAL SEEMS LOW AS THERE IS LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL LIFT. CONTINUE TO THE MENTION
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR NOW.

BY TOMORROW NIGHT A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHARPEN UP AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO
INCREASE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BRING IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIP. THE GFS IS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL WHERE THE NAM HAS NO QPF
FOR MON NIGHT AND THE EC IS LESS AMPLIFIED IN BRINGING THE PRECIP
INTO THE REGION. DID AN OVERALL BLEND IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THEN TONIGHT...BUT STILL WARMER AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPS FROM RADIATING OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
  WITH A RISK OF SHOWERS TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF
  THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CONFIDENCE FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE.
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OF A
WEAK TROF AND AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE THREATENING SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND HEADING INTO TUESDAY BUT MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY IN
LOCATION AND STRENGTH. SIMILARLY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT
CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING MID WEEK BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS AND CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN. A
RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY TILT TROF IS ALSO SHOWN BY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO CROSS NEW ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND WITH
POSSIBLY A TRIPLE POINT LOW. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE VARIATION AND
ENOUGH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY TO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
AMOUNT AND DISTRIBUTION OF RAFL WITH THIS SYSTEM.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...THE 12Z GFS RUN DEPICTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAFL ALONG THE S
COAST TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LEAD SHORT WAVE TROF
AHEAD OF THE MORE PRONOUNCED CLOSED LOW...BUT THIS FEATURE IS NOT
REFLECTED NEARLY SO MUCH IN THE NAM AND ENSEMBLES. THE 12Z ECMWF
DOES PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE BUT NOT TO NEARLY THE DEGREE OF THE
GFS. WILL INDICATE CHANCE POPS SOUTHERN ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE
MOST OTHER ZONES WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE ON JUST HOW THIS
FEATURE WILL MANIFAST ITSELF.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER CLOSED LOW IS PROJECTED TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME BUT THE MODELS VARY IN
STRENGTH AND NEARNESS OF SURFACE LOW REFLECTION WITH THE ECMWF
BEING MORE ROBUST THAN THE GFS IN THIS CASE. THE GFS DOES DEPICT A
FAIRLY PRONOUNCED COLD POOL ALOFT WITH TOTAL TOTALS RISING TO NEAR
48. THERE IS CORRESPONDING VARIATIONS IN THE QPF. WILLHIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HELP MINIMIZE ANY DENSE FOG PATCHES BUT
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL LIKELY CLOSE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY 3-5
MILES IN FOG. TEMPERATURES DROPPING A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST
AS OF 7 PM BUT FORECAST MINIMUMS STILL LOOK GOOD. LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

4 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
BOTH PVD AND BDL HAVE BROKEN THEIR RECORDS AND LOGAN WARMED UP TO
87F. DEFINITELY A MORE SUMMER LIKE FEEL OUT THERE TODAY.  PUT
CHANCE POPS UP TO MASSPIKE AND SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH OF THERE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCE RAIN
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DEPARTING LOW ACROSS CAPE AND ISLANDS BUT
OTHERWISE MODELS HAVE SIMILAR TIMING WITH SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE
OVERING ACROSS REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FAIRLY LARGE AMPLIFIED TROF THAT MAY
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT APPROACHES REGION PER ALL MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS. THERE IS A SUGGESTION OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. ACTUAL
DURATION OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN GRID POPS MIGHT IMPLY
ONCE WE ARE ABLE TO BETTER DEFINE THE TIMING. ENOUGH MODEL
DIFFERENCE IN THE DETAILS TO MAKE THE QPF VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.

SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE SYSTEM WILL BE EXISTING THE REGION WITH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS
DRY NOW...THERE IS ENOUGH COMPLEXITY WITH THE SITUATION WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROFS TO KEEP THE DOOR OPEN FOR SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE SUNDAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
MONDAY NIGHT.

PATCHY FOG EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT ANY IFR/LIFR WILL BE
LOCALIZED...LESS SO THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
CLOUDS. EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY 3-5 MILES IN FOG LATE TONIGHT.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT DROPS S ACROSS REGION
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N/NE. VFR CIGS AHEAD OF FRONT BUT EXPECT
CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND IT...CLOSER TO 00Z. MAY ALSO BE ISOLD
SHOWER. EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND DROP CIGS TO MVFR. DRIZZLE AND ISO
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. NE WINDS WILL ALSO GUST BETWEEN 15-25
KTS OVERNIGHT ESP ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. VFR THROUGH MONDAY BUT THEN MVFR WITH RISK
OF IFR CIGS MONDAY NIGHT AS NE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. MVFR VSBY IN FOG POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN VFR THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF MVFR
VSBYS IN SHOWERS. AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS
EAST COASTAL SECTIONS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON.

HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND CALM
SEAS TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT PUSHES S ACROSS WATERS TOMORROW...FIRST NEAR MERRIMACK
RIVER IN MORNING AND PROBABLY NOT REACHING S COAST UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON. SW WINDS GIVE WAY TO WIND SHIFT TO N/NE BEHIND
FRONT...AND MAY REACH 25 KT LATE IN DAY FROM BOSTON TO MERRIMACK
RIVER AS SEAS BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FT. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE
AREAS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THIS WEEK MAY FEATURE A FAIRLY PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A FAIRLY
STRONG SIGNAL FOR E TO NE WIND GUSTS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS AS WELL AS SEAS IN ZONES EXPOSED TO AN EASTERLY FETCH
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. HAVE UPPED SEAS ABOVE WAVE
WATCH GUIDANCE BASED ON EXPERIENCE WITH NE FLOW AND SYNOPTIC
PATTERN RECOGNITION. IF THE MEDIUM RANGES MODELS HAVE A FAIR IDEA
ON THE MID WEEK SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THEN WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SEAS BUILD TO NEAR 10 FEET EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET BY
LATE WEDNESDAY.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY 9/28

BOSTON.......... 90 IN 1881 AND PREVIOUS YEARS - REACHED 87
PROVIDENCE...... 84 IN 1943 - REACHED 86 TODAY*
WORCESTER....... 84 IN 1916 - REACHED 79
WINDSOR LOCKS... 83 IN 1959 - REACHED 87 TODAY*

* RER SENT FOR PVD AND BDL

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
MARINE...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290155
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
955 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERLIKE WARMTH WILL COME TO AN END MONDAY AS A FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TOMORROW...DROPPING TEMPS AND BRING A
FEW SHOWERS. A COOLER NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND ONE OR TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS MAY
PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A FRONT AND
POSSIBLY SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. DESPITE LIGHT WINDS AND
THIN/HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT
GIVEN DEW PTS IN THE L60S THIS EVENING. THESE HIGHER DEW HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HELP MINIMIZE ANY DENSE FOG PATCHES BUT
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL LIKELY CLOSE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY 3-5
MILES IN FOG. TEMPERATURES DROPPING A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST
AS OF 7 PM BUT FORECAST MINIMUMS STILL LOOK GOOD. LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

4 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
BOTH PVD AND BDL HAVE BROKEN THEIR RECORDS AND LOGAN WARMED UP TO
87F. DEFINITELY A MORE SUMMER LIKE FEEL OUT THERE TODAY. PTS WILL
ALSO YIELD PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE WHERE KEENE NH REPORTING
ZERO VSBY AT THE MOMENT. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THESE DETAILS
NICELY SO AGAIN NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS WINDS
WILL BE MORE OUT OF THE WEST BUT STILL RELATIVELY LIGHT. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WELL AS THE FOG POTENTIAL. MIN TEMPS
MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. METRO REGIONS OF BOS AND PVD
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S THANKS TO THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT.
PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...ESP IN VALLEY REGIONS.
THE FOG POTENTIAL WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT AS
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD WILL BE LARGER THAN THE PREV NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

TRICKY FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. FIRST THING TO
WATCH IS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND 18Z MONDAY AND PUSH TO THE SOUTH SHORE
BY 00Z. TEMPS WILL WARM IN THE MORNING BUT BY THE AFTERNOON WILL
DROP ESP ACROSS THE MERRIMACK REGION AS WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NE
AND INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT BUT POTENTIAL SEEMS LOW AS THERE IS LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL LIFT. CONTINUE TO THE MENTION
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR NOW.

BY TOMORROW NIGHT A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHARPEN UP AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO
INCREASE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BRING IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIP. THE GFS IS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL WHERE THE NAM HAS NO QPF
FOR MON NIGHT AND THE EC IS LESS AMPLIFIED IN BRINGING THE PRECIP
INTO THE REGION. DID AN OVERALL BLEND IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THEN TONIGHT...BUT STILL WARMER AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPS FROM RADIATING OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
  WITH A RISK OF SHOWERS TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF
  THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CONFIDENCE FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE.
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OF A
WEAK TROF AND AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE THREATENING SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND HEADING INTO TUESDAY BUT MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY IN
LOCATION AND STRENGTH. SIMILARLY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT
CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING MID WEEK BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS AND CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN. A
RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY TILT TROF IS ALSO SHOWN BY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO CROSS NEW ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND WITH
POSSIBLY A TRIPLE POINT LOW. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE VARIATION AND
ENOUGH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY TO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
AMOUNT AND DISTRIBUTION OF RAFL WITH THIS SYSTEM.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...THE 12Z GFS RUN DEPICTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAFL ALONG THE S
COAST TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LEAD SHORT WAVE TROF
AHEAD OF THE MORE PRONOUNCED CLOSED LOW...BUT THIS FEATURE IS NOT
REFLECTED NEARLY SO MUCH IN THE NAM AND ENSEMBLES. THE 12Z ECMWF
DOES PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE BUT NOT TO NEARLY THE DEGREE OF THE
GFS. WILL INDICATE CHANCE POPS SOUTHERN ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE
MOST OTHER ZONES WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE ON JUST HOW THIS
FEATURE WILL MANIFAST ITSELF.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER CLOSED LOW IS PROJECTED TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME BUT THE MODELS VARY IN
STRENGTH AND NEARNESS OF SURFACE LOW REFLECTION WITH THE ECMWF
BEING MORE ROBUST THAN THE GFS IN THIS CASE. THE GFS DOES DEPICT A
FAIRLY PRONOUNCED COLD POOL ALOFT WITH TOTAL TOTALS RISING TO NEAR
48. THERE IS CORRESPONDING VARIATIONS IN THE QPF. WILLHIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HELP MINIMIZE ANY DENSE FOG PATCHES BUT
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL LIKELY CLOSE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY 3-5
MILES IN FOG. TEMPERATURES DROPPING A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST
AS OF 7 PM BUT FORECAST MINIMUMS STILL LOOK GOOD. LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

4 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
BOTH PVD AND BDL HAVE BROKEN THEIR RECORDS AND LOGAN WARMED UP TO
87F. DEFINITELY A MORE SUMMER LIKE FEEL OUT THERE TODAY.  PUT
CHANCE POPS UP TO MASSPIKE AND SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH OF THERE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCE RAIN
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DEPARTING LOW ACROSS CAPE AND ISLANDS BUT
OTHERWISE MODELS HAVE SIMILAR TIMING WITH SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE
OVERING ACROSS REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FAIRLY LARGE AMPLIFIED TROF THAT MAY
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT APPROACHES REGION PER ALL MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS. THERE IS A SUGGESTION OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. ACTUAL
DURATION OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN GRID POPS MIGHT IMPLY
ONCE WE ARE ABLE TO BETTER DEFINE THE TIMING. ENOUGH MODEL
DIFFERENCE IN THE DETAILS TO MAKE THE QPF VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.

SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE SYSTEM WILL BE EXISTING THE REGION WITH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS
DRY NOW...THERE IS ENOUGH COMPLEXITY WITH THE SITUATION WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROFS TO KEEP THE DOOR OPEN FOR SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE SUNDAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
MONDAY NIGHT.

PATCHY FOG EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT ANY IFR/LIFR WILL BE
LOCALIZED...LESS SO THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
CLOUDS. EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY 3-5 MILES IN FOG LATE TONIGHT.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT DROPS S ACROSS REGION
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N/NE. VFR CIGS AHEAD OF FRONT BUT EXPECT
CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND IT...CLOSER TO 00Z. MAY ALSO BE ISOLD
SHOWER. EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND DROP CIGS TO MVFR. DRIZZLE AND ISO
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. NE WINDS WILL ALSO GUST BETWEEN 15-25
KTS OVERNIGHT ESP ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. VFR THROUGH MONDAY BUT THEN MVFR WITH RISK
OF IFR CIGS MONDAY NIGHT AS NE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. MVFR VSBY IN FOG POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN VFR THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF MVFR
VSBYS IN SHOWERS. AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS
EAST COASTAL SECTIONS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON.

HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND CALM
SEAS TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT PUSHES S ACROSS WATERS TOMORROW...FIRST NEAR MERRIMACK
RIVER IN MORNING AND PROBABLY NOT REACHING S COAST UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON. SW WINDS GIVE WAY TO WIND SHIFT TO N/NE BEHIND
FRONT...AND MAY REACH 25 KT LATE IN DAY FROM BOSTON TO MERRIMACK
RIVER AS SEAS BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FT. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE
AREAS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THIS WEEK MAY FEATURE A FAIRLY PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A FAIRLY
STRONG SIGNAL FOR E TO NE WIND GUSTS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS AS WELL AS SEAS IN ZONES EXPOSED TO AN EASTERLY FETCH
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. HAVE UPPED SEAS ABOVE WAVE
WATCH GUIDANCE BASED ON EXPERIENCE WITH NE FLOW AND SYNOPTIC
PATTERN RECOGNITION. IF THE MEDIUM RANGES MODELS HAVE A FAIR IDEA
ON THE MID WEEK SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THEN WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SEAS BUILD TO NEAR 10 FEET EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET BY
LATE WEDNESDAY.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY 9/28

BOSTON.......... 90 IN 1881 AND PREVIOUS YEARS - REACHED 87
PROVIDENCE...... 84 IN 1943 - REACHED 86 TODAY*
WORCESTER....... 84 IN 1916 - REACHED 79
WINDSOR LOCKS... 83 IN 1959 - REACHED 87 TODAY*

* RER SENT FOR PVD AND BDL

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
MARINE...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290155
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
955 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERLIKE WARMTH WILL COME TO AN END MONDAY AS A FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TOMORROW...DROPPING TEMPS AND BRING A
FEW SHOWERS. A COOLER NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND ONE OR TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS MAY
PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A FRONT AND
POSSIBLY SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. DESPITE LIGHT WINDS AND
THIN/HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT
GIVEN DEW PTS IN THE L60S THIS EVENING. THESE HIGHER DEW HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HELP MINIMIZE ANY DENSE FOG PATCHES BUT
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL LIKELY CLOSE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY 3-5
MILES IN FOG. TEMPERATURES DROPPING A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST
AS OF 7 PM BUT FORECAST MINIMUMS STILL LOOK GOOD. LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

4 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
BOTH PVD AND BDL HAVE BROKEN THEIR RECORDS AND LOGAN WARMED UP TO
87F. DEFINITELY A MORE SUMMER LIKE FEEL OUT THERE TODAY. PTS WILL
ALSO YIELD PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE WHERE KEENE NH REPORTING
ZERO VSBY AT THE MOMENT. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THESE DETAILS
NICELY SO AGAIN NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS WINDS
WILL BE MORE OUT OF THE WEST BUT STILL RELATIVELY LIGHT. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WELL AS THE FOG POTENTIAL. MIN TEMPS
MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. METRO REGIONS OF BOS AND PVD
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S THANKS TO THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT.
PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...ESP IN VALLEY REGIONS.
THE FOG POTENTIAL WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT AS
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD WILL BE LARGER THAN THE PREV NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

TRICKY FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. FIRST THING TO
WATCH IS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND 18Z MONDAY AND PUSH TO THE SOUTH SHORE
BY 00Z. TEMPS WILL WARM IN THE MORNING BUT BY THE AFTERNOON WILL
DROP ESP ACROSS THE MERRIMACK REGION AS WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NE
AND INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT BUT POTENTIAL SEEMS LOW AS THERE IS LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL LIFT. CONTINUE TO THE MENTION
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR NOW.

BY TOMORROW NIGHT A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHARPEN UP AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO
INCREASE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BRING IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIP. THE GFS IS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL WHERE THE NAM HAS NO QPF
FOR MON NIGHT AND THE EC IS LESS AMPLIFIED IN BRINGING THE PRECIP
INTO THE REGION. DID AN OVERALL BLEND IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THEN TONIGHT...BUT STILL WARMER AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPS FROM RADIATING OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
  WITH A RISK OF SHOWERS TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF
  THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CONFIDENCE FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE.
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OF A
WEAK TROF AND AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE THREATENING SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND HEADING INTO TUESDAY BUT MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY IN
LOCATION AND STRENGTH. SIMILARLY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT
CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING MID WEEK BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS AND CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN. A
RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY TILT TROF IS ALSO SHOWN BY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO CROSS NEW ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND WITH
POSSIBLY A TRIPLE POINT LOW. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE VARIATION AND
ENOUGH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY TO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
AMOUNT AND DISTRIBUTION OF RAFL WITH THIS SYSTEM.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...THE 12Z GFS RUN DEPICTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAFL ALONG THE S
COAST TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LEAD SHORT WAVE TROF
AHEAD OF THE MORE PRONOUNCED CLOSED LOW...BUT THIS FEATURE IS NOT
REFLECTED NEARLY SO MUCH IN THE NAM AND ENSEMBLES. THE 12Z ECMWF
DOES PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE BUT NOT TO NEARLY THE DEGREE OF THE
GFS. WILL INDICATE CHANCE POPS SOUTHERN ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE
MOST OTHER ZONES WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE ON JUST HOW THIS
FEATURE WILL MANIFAST ITSELF.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER CLOSED LOW IS PROJECTED TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME BUT THE MODELS VARY IN
STRENGTH AND NEARNESS OF SURFACE LOW REFLECTION WITH THE ECMWF
BEING MORE ROBUST THAN THE GFS IN THIS CASE. THE GFS DOES DEPICT A
FAIRLY PRONOUNCED COLD POOL ALOFT WITH TOTAL TOTALS RISING TO NEAR
48. THERE IS CORRESPONDING VARIATIONS IN THE QPF. WILLHIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HELP MINIMIZE ANY DENSE FOG PATCHES BUT
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL LIKELY CLOSE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY 3-5
MILES IN FOG. TEMPERATURES DROPPING A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST
AS OF 7 PM BUT FORECAST MINIMUMS STILL LOOK GOOD. LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

4 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
BOTH PVD AND BDL HAVE BROKEN THEIR RECORDS AND LOGAN WARMED UP TO
87F. DEFINITELY A MORE SUMMER LIKE FEEL OUT THERE TODAY.  PUT
CHANCE POPS UP TO MASSPIKE AND SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH OF THERE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCE RAIN
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DEPARTING LOW ACROSS CAPE AND ISLANDS BUT
OTHERWISE MODELS HAVE SIMILAR TIMING WITH SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE
OVERING ACROSS REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FAIRLY LARGE AMPLIFIED TROF THAT MAY
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT APPROACHES REGION PER ALL MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS. THERE IS A SUGGESTION OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. ACTUAL
DURATION OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN GRID POPS MIGHT IMPLY
ONCE WE ARE ABLE TO BETTER DEFINE THE TIMING. ENOUGH MODEL
DIFFERENCE IN THE DETAILS TO MAKE THE QPF VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.

SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE SYSTEM WILL BE EXISTING THE REGION WITH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS
DRY NOW...THERE IS ENOUGH COMPLEXITY WITH THE SITUATION WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROFS TO KEEP THE DOOR OPEN FOR SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE SUNDAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
MONDAY NIGHT.

PATCHY FOG EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT ANY IFR/LIFR WILL BE
LOCALIZED...LESS SO THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
CLOUDS. EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY 3-5 MILES IN FOG LATE TONIGHT.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT DROPS S ACROSS REGION
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N/NE. VFR CIGS AHEAD OF FRONT BUT EXPECT
CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND IT...CLOSER TO 00Z. MAY ALSO BE ISOLD
SHOWER. EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND DROP CIGS TO MVFR. DRIZZLE AND ISO
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. NE WINDS WILL ALSO GUST BETWEEN 15-25
KTS OVERNIGHT ESP ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. VFR THROUGH MONDAY BUT THEN MVFR WITH RISK
OF IFR CIGS MONDAY NIGHT AS NE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. MVFR VSBY IN FOG POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN VFR THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF MVFR
VSBYS IN SHOWERS. AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS
EAST COASTAL SECTIONS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON.

HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND CALM
SEAS TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT PUSHES S ACROSS WATERS TOMORROW...FIRST NEAR MERRIMACK
RIVER IN MORNING AND PROBABLY NOT REACHING S COAST UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON. SW WINDS GIVE WAY TO WIND SHIFT TO N/NE BEHIND
FRONT...AND MAY REACH 25 KT LATE IN DAY FROM BOSTON TO MERRIMACK
RIVER AS SEAS BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FT. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE
AREAS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THIS WEEK MAY FEATURE A FAIRLY PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A FAIRLY
STRONG SIGNAL FOR E TO NE WIND GUSTS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS AS WELL AS SEAS IN ZONES EXPOSED TO AN EASTERLY FETCH
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. HAVE UPPED SEAS ABOVE WAVE
WATCH GUIDANCE BASED ON EXPERIENCE WITH NE FLOW AND SYNOPTIC
PATTERN RECOGNITION. IF THE MEDIUM RANGES MODELS HAVE A FAIR IDEA
ON THE MID WEEK SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THEN WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SEAS BUILD TO NEAR 10 FEET EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET BY
LATE WEDNESDAY.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY 9/28

BOSTON.......... 90 IN 1881 AND PREVIOUS YEARS - REACHED 87
PROVIDENCE...... 84 IN 1943 - REACHED 86 TODAY*
WORCESTER....... 84 IN 1916 - REACHED 79
WINDSOR LOCKS... 83 IN 1959 - REACHED 87 TODAY*

* RER SENT FOR PVD AND BDL

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
MARINE...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
CLIMATE...




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities