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000
FXUS61 KGYX 301428
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1028 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THEN OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN EXPECTED. A LARGE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES AND
WET WEATHER IN THE FORECAST.

&&

14Z UPDATE...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
MORNING. PATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE
QUICKLY MIXING OUT AND EXPECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TO BE
MOSTLY CLEAR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT GRADIENT AND FULL SUN WILL
PRODUCE A RATHER SHARP SEA BREEZE WHICH SHOULD COME ROARING IN
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON CAPPING TEMPS IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. AWAY FROM THE COAST
HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPS/TD`S/SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND NO OTHER CHANGES
PLANNED ATTM.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
710 AM...THE FORECAST ISSUE THIS MORNING IS THE DECK OF OF MID-
LVL CLOUDS IN SW NH. MODELS ARE NOT REALLY HANDLING IT WELL...BUT
NAM12 SEEMS TO BE THE BEST OF THE BUNCH AND SHOWS THE CLOUDS
BRIEFLY SPREAD EWD ALONG THE NH/MA BORDER FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
AND THE SLOWLY DISSIPATING MID-LATE MORNING...AND WENT WITH THE
NAM12 FOR SKY...AT LEAST IN THAT AREA.

PREVIOUSLY...500 MB WAVE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT IS
PRODUCING MAINLY A DECK OF CIRRUS...BUT HIS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF
THE CWA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MAKING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH JUST SOME PATCHY CIRRUS AND A FEW SCT STRATOCU THAT WILL
FORM ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT AS IT WORKS INLAND. THE LACK OF ANY
PRE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO WORK FAIRLY FAIR INLAND
AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE
COAST...BUT REACH UP TO AROUND 60 INLAND AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL SEE THE SFC RIDGE BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE...A
PROCESS THAT WILL TAKE INTO SUNDAY TO FINISH...AS 500 MB RIDGING
BUILDS JUST TO OUR EAST. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE
WEST...BUT ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL...AT LEAST...AFTER
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. MINS WILL LKLY OCCUR CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR RISING AFTER THAT...AND WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

THE BIG QUESTION FOR SUNDAY IS HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND
HOW FAR EAST IT GETS. ANY PRECIP IS DRIVEN BY SOME MID LVL ISENTROPIC
LIFT...MAINLY IN THE 600-800MB RANGE. THE NAM BRINGS A ROUND OF
RAIN INTO NH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE EURO HOLDS IT BACK A
LITTLE LONGER. THERE IS PROBABLY ENOUGH TO LIFT TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS OR SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN IN NH SOMETIME TUE AFTERNOON...BUT
DYNAMIC FORCING IS FORCED BY 500MB WAVE CRASHING INTO RIDGE SO
HOLDING OFF LKLY POPS UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON IN NH AND JUST
KEEPING CHC IN ME. MAX T WILL BE AFFECTED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN...AND
WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE IN THE INLAND KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VALLEY
WHERE HIGHS COULD GET CLOSE TO 60. ELSEWHERE LOOK FOR LOW TO MID
50S AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES... WITH A NEW AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMING NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE
NEW LOW BECOMES DOMINANT BY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. SHOULD SEE AN INITIAL AREA
OF RAIN SUNDAY EVENING WITH A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN BEGINS MONDAY MORNING LASTING INTO MONDAY
EVENING AS THE OFFSHORE LOW BEGINS TO TAKE OVER. WITH THE COASTAL
LOW FORMING IT WILL PULL IN COLDER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF IT JUST
AS PRECIPITATION IS ENDING. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF CHANGE TO
SNOW MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE
VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE MONDAY
EVENING. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE HAND OFF BETWEEN
THE FIRST SURFACE LOW AND THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW... AND AS A
RESULT THE ECMWF SCENARIO WOULD GIVE THE BEST CHANCE OF A CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AS PRECIPITATION ENDS.

SHOULD SEE A BREAK ON TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY A LARGE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
CUTS ITSELF OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. CUT OFF LOWS AND
THE ASSOCIATED MINOR WAVES ROTATING AROUND THEM ARE NOTORIOUSLY
DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO FORECAST... SO THE SPECIFIC DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD ARE VERY MURKY. BUT WITH THE LOW
JUST TO OUR WEST EXPECT OUR AREA TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW ROUNDS OF
WET WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...VULNERABLE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. WITH A LONG FETCH OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CUT OFF LOW... THIS WOULD PUT US IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
SEEING A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT IF AND WHEN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SURFACE LOW CAN FORM AND TRACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA. THE
LATEST ECMWF DEVELOPS JUST SUCH A SYSTEM ON THURSDAY... THOUGH
GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN TIMING THE MINOR WAVES WITHIN A CUT OFF
LOW... THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT OUR AREA ANYTIME FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SO WE CANNOT BE TOO CONFIDENT ON TIMING OF THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THRU SUN MORNING. SHOULD SEE CONDS DROP TO MVFR
IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NH. COULD SEE SOME LATE IFR
MOVE IN AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY AS WELL.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE A GOOD PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WIND WILL BE VERY LIGHT OVERALL...BUT WILL TURN
ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON IN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

LONG TERM...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY WILL TRACK EASTWARD NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE. DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW... THIS COULD PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A
FAVORABLE FETCH FOR LARGER WAVES IN THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP RH MODERATE TODAY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL
BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...BUT FUELS REMAIN DRY SO FIRE DANGER
MAY STAY ELEVATED. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE FOR MANY OF THOSE LOCATIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301428
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1028 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THEN OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN EXPECTED. A LARGE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES AND
WET WEATHER IN THE FORECAST.

&&

14Z UPDATE...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
MORNING. PATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE
QUICKLY MIXING OUT AND EXPECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TO BE
MOSTLY CLEAR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT GRADIENT AND FULL SUN WILL
PRODUCE A RATHER SHARP SEA BREEZE WHICH SHOULD COME ROARING IN
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON CAPPING TEMPS IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. AWAY FROM THE COAST
HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPS/TD`S/SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND NO OTHER CHANGES
PLANNED ATTM.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
710 AM...THE FORECAST ISSUE THIS MORNING IS THE DECK OF OF MID-
LVL CLOUDS IN SW NH. MODELS ARE NOT REALLY HANDLING IT WELL...BUT
NAM12 SEEMS TO BE THE BEST OF THE BUNCH AND SHOWS THE CLOUDS
BRIEFLY SPREAD EWD ALONG THE NH/MA BORDER FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
AND THE SLOWLY DISSIPATING MID-LATE MORNING...AND WENT WITH THE
NAM12 FOR SKY...AT LEAST IN THAT AREA.

PREVIOUSLY...500 MB WAVE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT IS
PRODUCING MAINLY A DECK OF CIRRUS...BUT HIS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF
THE CWA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MAKING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH JUST SOME PATCHY CIRRUS AND A FEW SCT STRATOCU THAT WILL
FORM ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT AS IT WORKS INLAND. THE LACK OF ANY
PRE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO WORK FAIRLY FAIR INLAND
AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE
COAST...BUT REACH UP TO AROUND 60 INLAND AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL SEE THE SFC RIDGE BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE...A
PROCESS THAT WILL TAKE INTO SUNDAY TO FINISH...AS 500 MB RIDGING
BUILDS JUST TO OUR EAST. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE
WEST...BUT ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL...AT LEAST...AFTER
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. MINS WILL LKLY OCCUR CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR RISING AFTER THAT...AND WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

THE BIG QUESTION FOR SUNDAY IS HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND
HOW FAR EAST IT GETS. ANY PRECIP IS DRIVEN BY SOME MID LVL ISENTROPIC
LIFT...MAINLY IN THE 600-800MB RANGE. THE NAM BRINGS A ROUND OF
RAIN INTO NH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE EURO HOLDS IT BACK A
LITTLE LONGER. THERE IS PROBABLY ENOUGH TO LIFT TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS OR SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN IN NH SOMETIME TUE AFTERNOON...BUT
DYNAMIC FORCING IS FORCED BY 500MB WAVE CRASHING INTO RIDGE SO
HOLDING OFF LKLY POPS UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON IN NH AND JUST
KEEPING CHC IN ME. MAX T WILL BE AFFECTED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN...AND
WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE IN THE INLAND KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VALLEY
WHERE HIGHS COULD GET CLOSE TO 60. ELSEWHERE LOOK FOR LOW TO MID
50S AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES... WITH A NEW AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMING NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE
NEW LOW BECOMES DOMINANT BY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. SHOULD SEE AN INITIAL AREA
OF RAIN SUNDAY EVENING WITH A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN BEGINS MONDAY MORNING LASTING INTO MONDAY
EVENING AS THE OFFSHORE LOW BEGINS TO TAKE OVER. WITH THE COASTAL
LOW FORMING IT WILL PULL IN COLDER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF IT JUST
AS PRECIPITATION IS ENDING. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF CHANGE TO
SNOW MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE
VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE MONDAY
EVENING. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE HAND OFF BETWEEN
THE FIRST SURFACE LOW AND THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW... AND AS A
RESULT THE ECMWF SCENARIO WOULD GIVE THE BEST CHANCE OF A CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AS PRECIPITATION ENDS.

SHOULD SEE A BREAK ON TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY A LARGE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
CUTS ITSELF OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. CUT OFF LOWS AND
THE ASSOCIATED MINOR WAVES ROTATING AROUND THEM ARE NOTORIOUSLY
DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO FORECAST... SO THE SPECIFIC DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD ARE VERY MURKY. BUT WITH THE LOW
JUST TO OUR WEST EXPECT OUR AREA TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW ROUNDS OF
WET WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...VULNERABLE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. WITH A LONG FETCH OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CUT OFF LOW... THIS WOULD PUT US IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
SEEING A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT IF AND WHEN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SURFACE LOW CAN FORM AND TRACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA. THE
LATEST ECMWF DEVELOPS JUST SUCH A SYSTEM ON THURSDAY... THOUGH
GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN TIMING THE MINOR WAVES WITHIN A CUT OFF
LOW... THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT OUR AREA ANYTIME FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SO WE CANNOT BE TOO CONFIDENT ON TIMING OF THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THRU SUN MORNING. SHOULD SEE CONDS DROP TO MVFR
IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NH. COULD SEE SOME LATE IFR
MOVE IN AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY AS WELL.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE A GOOD PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WIND WILL BE VERY LIGHT OVERALL...BUT WILL TURN
ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON IN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

LONG TERM...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY WILL TRACK EASTWARD NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE. DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW... THIS COULD PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A
FAVORABLE FETCH FOR LARGER WAVES IN THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP RH MODERATE TODAY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL
BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...BUT FUELS REMAIN DRY SO FIRE DANGER
MAY STAY ELEVATED. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE FOR MANY OF THOSE LOCATIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



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000
FXUS61 KBOX 301423
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1023 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON. UNSETTLED
AND COOL WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A BRIEF DRYING TREND TUESDAY WHICH
MAY LAST INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SUBSIDENCE. SATELLITE TRENDS
SHOW MORE CLEARING THAN WAS ANTICIPATED. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW
MID LEVEL MOISTURE EVEN WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR THIS MORNING...AND
MORE CLOUDS LINGER TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST WILL
HOLD ON TO A FEW CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE A FINE SUNNY AFTERNOON.

SEA BREEZES TOOK THEIR TIME BUT THE 10 AM OBS SHOW A SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WIND DEVELOPING AT DEER ISLAND AND LOGAN AIRPORT. ALSO
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS SHOWING ALONG THE MASS EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON KEEPING COASTAL TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. TEMPS ALOFT AND 10 AM OBSERVED INLAND TEMPS POINT TO
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 60S...SOME LOW 60S IN THE HILLS AND
ADJACENT TO THE SEA BREEZE ZONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO START MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA AND SKIES WILL
BECOME OVERCAST.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY...CHILLY AND WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL SEND RAIN INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  RAIN WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...REACHING THE EAST COAST AROUND NOON. EASTERLY
WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST OF MAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS DELAYED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* DRY AND SEASONABLE TUE...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOMALOUS MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERN CANADA WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE GT LAKES. MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON
AMPLIFICATION OF THIS TROF LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CUTOFF LOW EVENTUALLY
DEVELOPING...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION AND LOCATION OF THIS
CUTOFF AND SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WHICH WILL DETERMINE SENSIBLE WEATHER. GENERAL THEME WILL BE A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK BUT DETAILS ARE VERY
UNCERTAIN.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...
OVERRUNNING OF WARM FRONT S OF NEW ENG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND MODEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF RAIN SUN NIGHT.  MORE
COMPLEX SCENARIO UNFOLDING MON AS APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LEADS TO A
PRIMARY LOW MOVING TO THE WEST WHILE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS OVER OR
SOUTH OF NEW ENG. NAM IS OVERDONE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MON DUE TO ITS
DEPICTION OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY. EXPECT
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN TO LINGER INTO MON...THEN TAPERING OFF MON
AFTERNOON AS BEST FORCING LIFTS TO THE NE. TRICKY TEMP FORECAST FOR
MON WHICH WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHERE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS AS
THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS SNE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TUE AS THE COLUMN DRIES WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
DRY WEATHER MAY PERSIST INTO WED BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT AS MID LEVEL
TROF WILL BE AMPLIFYING TO THE WEST WITH SFC WAVE LURKING TO THE
SOUTH. LOW CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST FOR WED AS GFS INDICATING SW
FLOW AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES MILDER THAN ECMWF WHICH HAS EASTERLY
FLOW.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH CUTOFF LOW WEST OR SW OF NEW ENG
AND SFC LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS AS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE SFC
LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT TEMPS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.  RAIN MOVES INTO W
MA/CT BETWEEN 09-12Z SUNDAY REACHING THE EAST COAST BETWEEN 15-18Z.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS START TO INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO 25
KT FOR A TIME WITH BUILDING SEAS. REDUCED VSBYS IN RAIN AND PATCHY
FOG.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WINDS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK OF
LOW PRES. ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED AT
TIMES IN RAIN AND FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS BUT LEFTOVER ROUGH SEAS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH MAY RESULT IN WINDS BEING MORE EASTERLY THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...WTB/KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301113
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
713 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THEN OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN EXPECTED. A LARGE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES AND
WET WEATHER IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
710 AM...THE FORECAST ISSUE THIS MORNING IS THE DECK OF OF MID-
LVL CLOUDS IN SW NH. MODELS ARE NOT REALLY HANDLING IT WELL...BUT
NAM12 SEEMS TO BE THE BEST OF THE BUNCH AND SHOWS THE CLOUDS
BRIEFLY SPREAD EWD ALONG THE NH/MA BORDER FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
AND THE SLOWLY DISSIPATING MID-LATE MORNING...AND WENT WITH THE
NAM12 FOR SKY...AT LEAST IN THAT AREA.

PREVIOUSLY...500 MB WAVE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT IS
PRODUCING MAINLY A DECK OF CIRRUS...BUT HIS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF
THE CWA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MAKING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH JUST SOME PATCHY CIRRUS AND A FEW SCT STRATOCU THAT WILL
FORM ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT AS IT WORKS INLAND. THE LACK OF ANY
PRE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO WORK FAIRLY FAIR INLAND
AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE
COAST...BUT REACH UP TO AROUND 60 INLAND AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL SEE THE SFC RIDGE BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE...A
PROCESS THAT WILL TAKE INTO SUNDAY TO FINISH...AS 500 MB RIDGING
BUILDS JUST TO OUR EAST. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE
WEST...BUT ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL...AT LEAST...AFTER
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. MINS WILL LKLY OCCUR CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR RISING AFTER THAT...AND WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

THE BIG QUESTION FOR SUNDAY IS HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND
HOW FAR EAST IT GETS. ANY PRECIP IS DRIVEN BY SOME MID LVL ISENTROPIC
LIFT...MAINLY IN THE 600-800MB RANGE. THE NAM BRINGS A ROUND OF
RAIN INTO NH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE EURO HOLDS IT BACK A
LITTLE LONGER. THERE IS PROBABLY ENOUGH TO LIFT TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS OR SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN IN NH SOMETIME TUE AFTERNOON...BUT
DYNAMIC FORCING IS FORCED BY 500MB WAVE CRASHING INTO RIDGE SO
HOLDING OFF LKLY POPS UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON IN NH AND JUST
KEEPING CHC IN ME. MAX T WILL BE AFFECTED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN...AND
WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE IN THE INLAND KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VALLEY
WHERE HIGHS COULD GET CLOSE TO 60. ELSEWHERE LOOK FOR LOW TO MID
50S AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES... WITH A NEW AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMING NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE
NEW LOW BECOMES DOMINANT BY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. SHOULD SEE AN INITIAL AREA
OF RAIN SUNDAY EVENING WITH A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN BEGINS MONDAY MORNING LASTING INTO MONDAY
EVENING AS THE OFFSHORE LOW BEGINS TO TAKE OVER. WITH THE COASTAL
LOW FORMING IT WILL PULL IN COLDER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF IT JUST
AS PRECIPITATION IS ENDING. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF CHANGE TO
SNOW MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE
VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE MONDAY
EVENING. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE HAND OFF BETWEEN
THE FIRST SURFACE LOW AND THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW... AND AS A
RESULT THE ECMWF SCENARIO WOULD GIVE THE BEST CHANCE OF A CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AS PRECIPITATION ENDS.

SHOULD SEE A BREAK ON TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY A LARGE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
CUTS ITSELF OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. CUT OFF LOWS AND
THE ASSOCIATED MINOR WAVES ROTATING AROUND THEM ARE NOTORIOUSLY
DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO FORECAST... SO THE SPECIFIC DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD ARE VERY MURKY. BUT WITH THE LOW
JUST TO OUR WEST EXPECT OUR AREA TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW ROUNDS OF
WET WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...VULNERABLE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. WITH A LONG FETCH OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CUT OFF LOW... THIS WOULD PUT US IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
SEEING A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT IF AND WHEN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SURFACE LOW CAN FORM AND TRACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA. THE
LATEST ECMWF DEVELOPS JUST SUCH A SYSTEM ON THURSDAY... THOUGH
GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN TIMING THE MINOR WAVES WITHIN A CUT OFF
LOW... THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT OUR AREA ANYTIME FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SO WE CANNOT BE TOO CONFIDENT ON TIMING OF THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THRU SUN MORNING. SHOULD SEE CONDS DROP TO MVFR
IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NH. COULD SEE SOME LATE IFR
MOVE IN AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY AS WELL.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE A GOOD PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WIND WILL BE VERY LIGHT OVERALL...BUT WILL TURN
ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON IN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

LONG TERM...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY WILL TRACK EASTWARD NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE. DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW... THIS COULD PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A
FAVORABLE FETCH FOR LARGER WAVES IN THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP RH MODERATE TODAY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL
BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...BUT FUELS REMAIN DRY SO FIRE DANGER
MAY STAY ELEVATED. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE FOR MANY OF THOSE LOCATIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301105
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
705 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ONE MORE DAY TODAY.
UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A BRIEF DRYING TREND TUESDAY
WHICH MAY LAST INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
700 AM UPDATE...
AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS W NEW ENG WITH MOSUNNY SKIES IN THE EAST.
EXPECT NUMEROUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
TODAY WHERE CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS PRESENT AROUND 850 MB
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE BREAKS OF SUN. THE MOST SUNSHINE WILL BE
NEAR THE COAST. TEMPS WILL REACH LOW TO MID 60S...BUT SEABREEZES
WILL DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO START MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA AND SKIES WILL
BECOME OVERCAST.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY...CHILLY AND WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL SEND RAIN INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  RAIN WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...REACHING THE EAST COAST AROUND NOON. EASTERLY
WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST OF MAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS DELAYED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* DRY AND SEASONABLE TUE...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOMALOUS MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERN CANADA WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE GT LAKES. MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON
AMPLIFICATION OF THIS TROF LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CUTOFF LOW EVENTUALLY
DEVELOPING...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION AND LOCATION OF THIS
CUTOFF AND SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WHICH WILL DETERMINE SENSIBLE WEATHER. GENERAL THEME WILL BE A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK BUT DETAILS ARE VERY
UNCERTAIN.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...
OVERRUNNING OF WARM FRONT S OF NEW ENG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND MODEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF RAIN SUN NIGHT.  MORE
COMPLEX SCENARIO UNFOLDING MON AS APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LEADS TO A
PRIMARY LOW MOVING TO THE WEST WHILE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS OVER OR
SOUTH OF NEW ENG. NAM IS OVERDONE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MON DUE TO ITS
DEPICTION OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY. EXPECT
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN TO LINGER INTO MON...THEN TAPERING OFF MON
AFTERNOON AS BEST FORCING LIFTS TO THE NE. TRICKY TEMP FORECAST FOR
MON WHICH WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHERE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS AS
THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS SNE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TUE AS THE COLUMN DRIES WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
DRY WEATHER MAY PERSIST INTO WED BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT AS MID LEVEL
TROF WILL BE AMPLIFYING TO THE WEST WITH SFC WAVE LURKING TO THE
SOUTH. LOW CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST FOR WED AS GFS INDICATING SW
FLOW AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES MILDER THAN ECMWF WHICH HAS EASTERLY
FLOW.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH CUTOFF LOW WEST OR SW OF NEW ENG
AND SFC LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS AS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE SFC
LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT TEMPS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.  RAIN MOVES INTO W
MA/CT BETWEEN 09-12Z SUNDAY REACHING THE EAST COAST BETWEEN 15-18Z.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS START TO INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO 25
KT FOR A TIME WITH BUILDING SEAS. REDUCED VSBYS IN RAIN AND PATCHY
FOG.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WINDS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK OF
LOW PRES. ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED AT
TIMES IN RAIN AND FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS BUT LEFTOVER ROUGH SEAS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH MAY RESULT IN WINDS BEING MORE EASTERLY THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301105
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
705 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ONE MORE DAY TODAY.
UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A BRIEF DRYING TREND TUESDAY
WHICH MAY LAST INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
700 AM UPDATE...
AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS W NEW ENG WITH MOSUNNY SKIES IN THE EAST.
EXPECT NUMEROUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
TODAY WHERE CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS PRESENT AROUND 850 MB
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE BREAKS OF SUN. THE MOST SUNSHINE WILL BE
NEAR THE COAST. TEMPS WILL REACH LOW TO MID 60S...BUT SEABREEZES
WILL DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO START MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA AND SKIES WILL
BECOME OVERCAST.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY...CHILLY AND WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL SEND RAIN INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  RAIN WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...REACHING THE EAST COAST AROUND NOON. EASTERLY
WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST OF MAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS DELAYED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* DRY AND SEASONABLE TUE...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOMALOUS MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERN CANADA WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE GT LAKES. MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON
AMPLIFICATION OF THIS TROF LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CUTOFF LOW EVENTUALLY
DEVELOPING...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION AND LOCATION OF THIS
CUTOFF AND SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WHICH WILL DETERMINE SENSIBLE WEATHER. GENERAL THEME WILL BE A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK BUT DETAILS ARE VERY
UNCERTAIN.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...
OVERRUNNING OF WARM FRONT S OF NEW ENG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND MODEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF RAIN SUN NIGHT.  MORE
COMPLEX SCENARIO UNFOLDING MON AS APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LEADS TO A
PRIMARY LOW MOVING TO THE WEST WHILE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS OVER OR
SOUTH OF NEW ENG. NAM IS OVERDONE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MON DUE TO ITS
DEPICTION OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY. EXPECT
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN TO LINGER INTO MON...THEN TAPERING OFF MON
AFTERNOON AS BEST FORCING LIFTS TO THE NE. TRICKY TEMP FORECAST FOR
MON WHICH WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHERE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS AS
THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS SNE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TUE AS THE COLUMN DRIES WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
DRY WEATHER MAY PERSIST INTO WED BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT AS MID LEVEL
TROF WILL BE AMPLIFYING TO THE WEST WITH SFC WAVE LURKING TO THE
SOUTH. LOW CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST FOR WED AS GFS INDICATING SW
FLOW AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES MILDER THAN ECMWF WHICH HAS EASTERLY
FLOW.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH CUTOFF LOW WEST OR SW OF NEW ENG
AND SFC LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS AS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE SFC
LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT TEMPS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.  RAIN MOVES INTO W
MA/CT BETWEEN 09-12Z SUNDAY REACHING THE EAST COAST BETWEEN 15-18Z.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS START TO INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO 25
KT FOR A TIME WITH BUILDING SEAS. REDUCED VSBYS IN RAIN AND PATCHY
FOG.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WINDS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK OF
LOW PRES. ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED AT
TIMES IN RAIN AND FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS BUT LEFTOVER ROUGH SEAS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH MAY RESULT IN WINDS BEING MORE EASTERLY THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KGYX 300734
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
334 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THEN OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN EXPECTED. A LARGE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES AND
WET WEATHER IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
500 MB WAVE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT IS PRODUCING MAINLY A
DECK OF CIRRUS...BUT HIS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MAKING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH JUST SOME
PATCHY CIRRUS AND A FEW SCT STRATOCU THAT WILL FORM ALONG SEA
BREEZE FRONT AS IT WORKS INLAND. THE LACK OF ANY PRE GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO WORK FAIRLY FAIR INLAND AND THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE COAST...BUT REACH UP TO
AROUND 60 INLAND AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL SEE THE SFC RIDGE BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE...A
PROCESS THAT WILL TAKE INTO SUNDAY TO FINISH...AS 500 MB RIDGING
BUILDS JUST TO OUR EAST. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE
WEST...BUT ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL...AT LEAST...AFTER
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. MINS WILL LKLY OCCUR CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR RISING AFTER THAT...AND WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

THE BIG QUESTION FOR SUNDAY IS HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND
HOW FAR EAST IT GETS. ANY PRECIP IS DRIVEN BY SOME MID LVL ISENTROPIC
LIFT...MAINLY IN THE 600-800MB RANGE. THE NAM BRINGS A ROUND OF
RAIN INTO NH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE EURO HOLDS IT BACK A
LITTLE LONGER. THERE IS PROBABLY ENOUGH TO LIFT TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS OR SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN IN NH SOMETIME TUE AFTERNOON...BUT
DYNAMIC FORCING IS FORCED BY 500MB WAVE CRASHING INTO RIDGE SO
HOLDING OFF LKLY POPS UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON IN NH AND JUST
KEEPING CHC IN ME. MAX T WILL BE AFFECTED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN...AND
WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE IN THE INLAND KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VALLEY
WHERE HIGHS COULD GET CLOSE TO 60. ELSEWHERE LOOK FOR LOW TO MID
50S AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES... WITH A NEW AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMING NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE
NEW LOW BECOMES DOMINANT BY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. SHOULD SEE AN INITIAL AREA
OF RAIN SUNDAY EVENING WITH A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN BEGINS MONDAY MORNING LASTING INTO MONDAY
EVENING AS THE OFFSHORE LOW BEGINS TO TAKE OVER. WITH THE COASTAL
LOW FORMING IT WILL PULL IN COLDER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF IT JUST
AS PRECIPITATION IS ENDING. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF CHANGE TO
SNOW MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE
VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE MONDAY
EVENING. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE HAND OFF BETWEEN
THE FIRST SURFACE LOW AND THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW... AND AS A
RESULT THE ECMWF SCENARIO WOULD GIVE THE BEST CHANCE OF A CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AS PRECIPITATION ENDS.

SHOULD SEE A BREAK ON TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY A LARGE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
CUTS ITSELF OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. CUT OFF LOWS AND
THE ASSOCIATED MINOR WAVES ROTATING AROUND THEM ARE NOTORIOUSLY
DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO FORECAST... SO THE SPECIFIC DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD ARE VERY MURKY. BUT WITH THE LOW
JUST TO OUR WEST EXPECT OUR AREA TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW ROUNDS OF
WET WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...VULNERABLE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. WITH A LONG FETCH OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CUT OFF LOW... THIS WOULD PUT US IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
SEEING A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT IF AND WHEN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SURFACE LOW CAN FORM AND TRACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA. THE
LATEST ECMWF DEVELOPS JUST SUCH A SYSTEM ON THURSDAY... THOUGH
GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN TIMING THE MINOR WAVES WITHIN A CUT OFF
LOW... THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT OUR AREA ANYTIME FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SO WE CANNOT BE TOO CONFIDENT ON TIMING OF THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THRU SUN MORNING. SHOULD SEE CONDS DROP TO MVFR
IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NH. COULD SEE SOME LATE IFR
MOVE IN AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY AS WELL.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE A GOOD PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WIND WILL BE VERY LIGHT OVERALL...BUT WILL TURN
ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON IN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

LONG TERM...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY WILL TRACK EASTWARD NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE. DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW... THIS COULD PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A
FAVORABLE FETCH FOR LARGER WAVES IN THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP RH MODERATE TODAY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL
BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...BUT FUELS REMAIN DRY SO FIRE DANGER
MAY STAY ELEVATED. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE FOR MANY OF THOSE LOCATIONS.


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM... KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 300734
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
334 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THEN OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN EXPECTED. A LARGE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES AND
WET WEATHER IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
500 MB WAVE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT IS PRODUCING MAINLY A
DECK OF CIRRUS...BUT HIS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MAKING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH JUST SOME
PATCHY CIRRUS AND A FEW SCT STRATOCU THAT WILL FORM ALONG SEA
BREEZE FRONT AS IT WORKS INLAND. THE LACK OF ANY PRE GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO WORK FAIRLY FAIR INLAND AND THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE COAST...BUT REACH UP TO
AROUND 60 INLAND AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL SEE THE SFC RIDGE BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE...A
PROCESS THAT WILL TAKE INTO SUNDAY TO FINISH...AS 500 MB RIDGING
BUILDS JUST TO OUR EAST. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE
WEST...BUT ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL...AT LEAST...AFTER
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. MINS WILL LKLY OCCUR CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR RISING AFTER THAT...AND WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

THE BIG QUESTION FOR SUNDAY IS HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND
HOW FAR EAST IT GETS. ANY PRECIP IS DRIVEN BY SOME MID LVL ISENTROPIC
LIFT...MAINLY IN THE 600-800MB RANGE. THE NAM BRINGS A ROUND OF
RAIN INTO NH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE EURO HOLDS IT BACK A
LITTLE LONGER. THERE IS PROBABLY ENOUGH TO LIFT TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS OR SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN IN NH SOMETIME TUE AFTERNOON...BUT
DYNAMIC FORCING IS FORCED BY 500MB WAVE CRASHING INTO RIDGE SO
HOLDING OFF LKLY POPS UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON IN NH AND JUST
KEEPING CHC IN ME. MAX T WILL BE AFFECTED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN...AND
WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE IN THE INLAND KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VALLEY
WHERE HIGHS COULD GET CLOSE TO 60. ELSEWHERE LOOK FOR LOW TO MID
50S AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES... WITH A NEW AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMING NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE
NEW LOW BECOMES DOMINANT BY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. SHOULD SEE AN INITIAL AREA
OF RAIN SUNDAY EVENING WITH A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN BEGINS MONDAY MORNING LASTING INTO MONDAY
EVENING AS THE OFFSHORE LOW BEGINS TO TAKE OVER. WITH THE COASTAL
LOW FORMING IT WILL PULL IN COLDER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF IT JUST
AS PRECIPITATION IS ENDING. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF CHANGE TO
SNOW MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE
VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE MONDAY
EVENING. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE HAND OFF BETWEEN
THE FIRST SURFACE LOW AND THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW... AND AS A
RESULT THE ECMWF SCENARIO WOULD GIVE THE BEST CHANCE OF A CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AS PRECIPITATION ENDS.

SHOULD SEE A BREAK ON TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY A LARGE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
CUTS ITSELF OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. CUT OFF LOWS AND
THE ASSOCIATED MINOR WAVES ROTATING AROUND THEM ARE NOTORIOUSLY
DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO FORECAST... SO THE SPECIFIC DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD ARE VERY MURKY. BUT WITH THE LOW
JUST TO OUR WEST EXPECT OUR AREA TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW ROUNDS OF
WET WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...VULNERABLE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. WITH A LONG FETCH OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CUT OFF LOW... THIS WOULD PUT US IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
SEEING A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT IF AND WHEN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SURFACE LOW CAN FORM AND TRACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA. THE
LATEST ECMWF DEVELOPS JUST SUCH A SYSTEM ON THURSDAY... THOUGH
GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN TIMING THE MINOR WAVES WITHIN A CUT OFF
LOW... THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT OUR AREA ANYTIME FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SO WE CANNOT BE TOO CONFIDENT ON TIMING OF THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THRU SUN MORNING. SHOULD SEE CONDS DROP TO MVFR
IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NH. COULD SEE SOME LATE IFR
MOVE IN AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY AS WELL.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE A GOOD PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WIND WILL BE VERY LIGHT OVERALL...BUT WILL TURN
ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON IN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

LONG TERM...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY WILL TRACK EASTWARD NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE. DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW... THIS COULD PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A
FAVORABLE FETCH FOR LARGER WAVES IN THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP RH MODERATE TODAY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL
BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...BUT FUELS REMAIN DRY SO FIRE DANGER
MAY STAY ELEVATED. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE FOR MANY OF THOSE LOCATIONS.


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM... KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300733
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
333 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ONE MORE DAY TODAY.
UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A BRIEF DRYING TREND TUESDAY
WHICH MAY LAST INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING ONE MORE DAY OF SUN AND DRY WEATHER.  OVERCAST SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SUN...ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY
AWAY FROM THE COAST. ONSHORE SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.  FARTHER
INLAND...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S TO MID 60S IN THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO START MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA AND SKIES WILL
BECOME OVERCAST.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY...CHILLY AND WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL SEND RAIN INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  RAIN WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...REACHING THE EAST COAST AROUND NOON. EASTERLY
WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST OF MAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS DELAYED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* DRY AND SEASONABLE TUE...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOMALOUS MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERN CANADA WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE GT LAKES. MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON
AMPLIFICATION OF THIS TROF LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CUTOFF LOW EVENTUALLY
DEVELOPING...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION AND LOCATION OF THIS
CUTOFF AND SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WHICH WILL DETERMINE SENSIBLE WEATHER. GENERAL THEME WILL BE A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK BUT DETAILS ARE VERY
UNCERTAIN.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...
OVERRUNNING OF WARM FRONT S OF NEW ENG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND MODEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF RAIN SUN NIGHT.  MORE
COMPLEX SCENARIO UNFOLDING MON AS APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LEADS TO A
PRIMARY LOW MOVING TO THE WEST WHILE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS OVER OR
SOUTH OF NEW ENG. NAM IS OVERDONE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MON DUE TO ITS
DEPICTION OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY. EXPECT
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN TO LINGER INTO MON...THEN TAPERING OFF MON
AFTERNOON AS BEST FORCING LIFTS TO THE NE. TRICKY TEMP FORECAST FOR
MON WHICH WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHERE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS AS
THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS SNE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TUE AS THE COLUMN DRIES WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
DRY WEATHER MAY PERSIST INTO WED BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT AS MID LEVEL
TROF WILL BE AMPLIFYING TO THE WEST WITH SFC WAVE LURKING TO THE
SOUTH. LOW CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST FOR WED AS GFS INDICATING SW
FLOW AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES MILDER THAN ECMWF WHICH HAS EASTERLY
FLOW.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH CUTOFF LOW WEST OR SW OF NEW ENG
AND SFC LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS AS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE SFC
LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT TEMPS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.  RAIN MOVES INTO W
MA/CT BETWEEN 09-12Z SUNDAY REACHING THE EAST COAST BETWEEN 15-18Z.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS START TO INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO 25
KT FOR A TIME WITH BUILDING SEAS. REDUCED VSBYS IN RAIN AND PATCHY
FOG.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WINDS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK OF
LOW PRES. ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED AT
TIMES IN RAIN AND FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS BUT LEFTOVER ROUGH SEAS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH MAY RESULT IN WINDS BEING MORE EASTERLY THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KGYX 300401
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1201 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE SOUTH OF CAPE COD ON MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS IN THE REGION COOL AND WET INTO
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT...JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
BASED ON CURRENT OBS. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...AND MINS WERE ADJUSTED UP JUST A BIT IN SOME SPOTS. ALSO
RADAR ECHOES OF 10-20 DBZ OVER SW NH AT ABOUT 10K FT AND VERY
LKLY NOT GOING TO REACH THE GROUND AS THEY WILL DISSIPATE IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.


REMAINING MARINE STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT AND DISSIPATE WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. FARTHER W A WEAK S/WV WILL CROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR SRN NH
ESPECIALLY...BUT CLEARING OR THINNING OF CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY
TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT. TO THE N WE SHOULD RADIATE QUICKLY AFTER
DARK...WITH SRN ZONES TAKING LONGER TO REACH LOW TEMPS. ANOTHER
CHILLY NIGHT THOUGH FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES SAT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE A LITTLE MORE DRY ALOFT AND MARINE STRATUS LOOKS
LIKE LIKELY THAN TODAY. HOWEVER THE WIND OFF THE WATER WILL STILL
KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS COOLER THAN THE INTERIOR. MESOSCALE MODELS
HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS LOOK...SO TEMP BLENDS ARE MORE HEAVILY
WEIGHTED IN THEIR DIRECTION.

NEXT WAVE APPROACHES SAT NIGHT. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE INCREASING
CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPS OVERNIGHT. PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD
DELAY UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SUN...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS
SNEAK INTO WRN NH BEFORE THAT TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE TO START SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY ORGANIZED... BUT WILL
BECOME MORE SO AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND ON MONDAY. SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO FORM AND DEEPEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF CAPE COD EXPECT A DECENT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW TO AFFECT THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
THINGS RAIN AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT A FEW MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO SHIFT A BIT FURTHER
EAST LATE ON TUESDAY AS THE FLOW OVER THE EAST COAST BECOMES MORE
MERIDIONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND
PASS OVER CAPE COD BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MARINE STRATUS IN THE PROCESS OF
SCATTERING OUT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE W OVERNIGHT BUT CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE VFR THRU SUN MORNING. SELY ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PICK UP AGAIN SAT FOR PSM...PWM...RKD...AND AUG...MAYBE AS
FAR W AS MHT.

LONG TERM...VFR TO START SUNDAY BUT AS PRECIPITATION SETS UP
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH
SOME LIFR AREAS POSSIBLE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW GENERALLY S
TO SE WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT. WINDS GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25
KTS...AND SEAS BELOW 5 FT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS MAY COME UP ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY TO REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A MARITIME INFLUENCE INLAND OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE IN PLACE ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE. ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 25 PERCENT DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND UNDER RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT FUELS
REMAIN DRY SO FIRE DANGER MAY STAY ELEVATED. MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL SEE RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH WETTING RAINS
POSSIBLE FOR MANY OF THOSE LOCATIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300206
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1006 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY TOWARD SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND...WITH ONE
MORE DAY OF QUIET WEATHER AND LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE FOR
SATURDAY. UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A BRIEF DRYING
TREND TUESDAY IS ONLY FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. MADE SOME MINOR
EDITS TO THE SKY COVER AND WIND FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
TRENDS. RADAR TRENDS ARE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS TO OCCUR ACROSS
CONNECTICUT WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA. VERY LIGHT QPF IS EXPECTED. THE AIR OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IS STILL VERY DRY.

TONIGHT...

S/W FOCUS OF WET WEATHER. POTENT VORTEX SWEEPING OUT TO SEA S OF
NEW ENGLAND WITH FOCUS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE COLLOCATED WITH
THE LEFT- FRONT QUADRANT OF AN ACCOMPANYING JET MAX. LOTS OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LOOKING AT A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN OVER SW
NEW ENGLAND POSSIBLY DRAGGING AS FAR N/E INTO CENTRAL AND SE NEW
ENGLAND UP AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. A
CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE WITH MOS AND SREF TOUTED MORE SO
GIVEN SUCH A MARGINAL EVENT AND WIGGLE ROOM. PALTRY AMOUNTS WITH
UPWARDS OF A TENTH MAINLY OVER SW CT.

AN EVENING INTO MIDNIGHT AFFAIR WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES HOLDING RELATIVELY STEADY. ITS AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARDS
SATURDAY MORNING THAT WE CLEAR OUT AND SUBSEQUENTLY TEMPERATURES
DROP TO LOWS AROUND THE UPPER 30S. BREEZY SE FLOW EARLY BECOMING
LIGHT WITH PASSAGE WHICH WITH CLEARING WILL AID WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...

IF YOU HAVE ANY OUTDOOR PLANS THIS DAY IS THE PICK OF THE WEEKEND.
COMBINED DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
ANTICIPATED DISTURBANCE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL MAKE FOR A GOOD
DAY OF ANABATIC FLOW AS WINDS ARE LIGHT ALL THE WAY UP TO ROUGHLY
H7. ANTICIPATING AN INTERIOR FLOW UP THE MOUNTAIN SLOPES WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS ATOP. A LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IF ALL COMES
TOGETHER...SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS SPITTING OUT SOME WET
WEATHER ALONG THE RIDGE OF THE BERKSHIRES. COULD NOT RULE OUT A
SPRINKLE AS MOISTURE POOLS BENEATH A DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND
H8.

OTHERWISE WARMING WELL INTO THE 60S PRIOR TO SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
ENCROACHING FROM THE W BY EVENING. COOL ALONG THE SHORES WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW. WARMEST CONDITIONS IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY
SPRINGFIELD-HARTFORD METRO. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED 70 DEGREE
READING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MAIN QUESTION IS HOW EARLY WILL THE RAIN MOVE IN? CONSIDERING HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS INFLUENTIAL ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WITH RIDGING
TO THE W ALBEIT WEAK AS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING PROCEEDS TO THE W PARENT
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
APPROACH...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ENCROACHING
INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING. COLUMN IS FAIRLY MOIST
AND WITH THE WEAK LIFT PRESENT BASED ON SOUNDING ANALYSIS...IT IS
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME WET WEATHER. SO LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS FROM
THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY. LOWERING AND THICKENING OF
CLOUDS INTO MORNING WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RATHER STEADY.
MILDER TO THE W WITH THE THICKER BLANKET FOR LONGER...COOLER E WITH
CLOUDS LESSER SO. LOWS AROUND THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* DRYING TREND LIKELY TUE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY...
  ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...
BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY FROM WEDNESDAY ON. 29/12Z GUIDANCE SHOWING
A SIMILAR OVERALL TREND...BUT THE TIMING AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES
GET RATHER PROFOUND LATE NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES SHOWED A LARGE
ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...LEADING TO THIS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED IN BURSTS NEXT WEEK. ONE LOW PRESSURE
PASSES US BY ON MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM SOMETIME LATE NEXT
WEEK. NOT EXPECTING A TOTAL WASHOUT...BE WE COULD SEE MANY PERIODS
OF RAIN BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY...IT THIS SECOND LOW
PRESSURE SLOWS ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MOST OF THIS PERIOD STILL LIKELY TO BE COOL
AND WET. INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING
SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. RAIN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. 29/12Z GFS STILL LOOKS TO BE OVERDONE WITH ITS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TUESDAY WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY...
BUT NOT SO CONFIDENT. WHILE THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS BACK ACROSS GREAT LAKES...MOST OF THE MORE RELIABLE
GUIDANCE NOW SHOWING A DECENT SHORTWAVE HEADING OUR WAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WAVE COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH...TO TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS...IF ENOUGH MOISTURE COMES WITH IT. GFS IS
AGGRESSIVE IN DOING SO...WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS SLOWER TO
BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE NORTH.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL LOOKING LIKE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
COOLER TEMPS WILL RETURN AS MID LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS NE
WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COASTAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND WITH EASTERLY FLOW. LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE MID LEVEL
FLOW...WITH THE GFS KEEPING ITS MID LEVEL CUTOFF NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES...AND THE ECMWF HAVING A MUCH WEAKER CUTOFF OVER THE
CAROLINAS. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS. AT
PRESENT...THINKING THURSDAY WOULD BE THE MORE LIKELY DAY FOR WET
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

BKN-OVC LOW END VFR CIGS WITH -RA S/W EVENING INTO MIDNIGHT...
CLEARING TOWARDS MORNING. DOMINANT E FLOW.

SATURDAY...

SCT-BKN LOW-END VFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR MAINLY OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN. DOMINANT E FLOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

BKN-OVC CLOUDS LOWERING TOWARDS MORNING DOWN TO LOW-END VFR WITH A
LOW RISK OF MVFR. -RA FOR TERMINALS MAINLY W OF ORH.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS WITH DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRYING TREND WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

INCREASING E/SE FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THIS EVENING...EXITING TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING. AN
ISOLATED GUST UP TO 25 KTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SEAS BUILDING
POTENTIALLY UP TO 5 FEET ON THE S OUTER WATERS BUT WILL HOLD AT 4
FEET.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...

CONTINUED E/SE FLOW THOUGH NOT AS BREEZY WITH GUSTS REMAINING
BELOW 20 KTS. GOOD BOATING WEATHER. CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE LATE
TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING EASTERLY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO NORTH DURING
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A PERIOD OF
EASTERLY 25 KT PLUS GUSTS POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AND AGAIN DURING MONDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH. ROUGH SEAS GIVEN
THE LONG ENE FETCH. VSBYS REDUCED AT TIMES IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS BUT LEFTOVER ROUGH SEAS
LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS FROM ENE SWELLS. SEAS
DIMINISHING.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...BELK/RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 292338
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
738 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY TOWARD SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND...WITH ONE
MORE DAY OF QUIET WEATHER AND LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE FOR
SATURDAY. UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A BRIEF DRYING
TREND TUESDAY IS ONLY FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. DID BRING THE
FORECAST BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS. SHOWERS ON RADAR
MOSAIC HAVING A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE GROUND OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 20+ DEGREES STILL NEED TO BE
OVERCOME. ADJUSTED TIMING OF SHOWERS TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER.

TONIGHT...

S/W FOCUS OF WET WEATHER. POTENT VORTEX SWEEPING OUT TO SEA S OF
NEW ENGLAND WITH FOCUS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE COLLOCATED WITH
THE LEFT- FRONT QUADRANT OF AN ACCOMPANYING JET MAX. LOTS OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LOOKING AT A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN OVER SW
NEW ENGLAND POSSIBLY DRAGGING AS FAR N/E INTO CENTRAL AND SE NEW
ENGLAND UP AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. A
CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE WITH MOS AND SREF TOUTED MORE SO
GIVEN SUCH A MARGINAL EVENT AND WIGGLE ROOM. PALTRY AMOUNTS WITH
UPWARDS OF A TENTH MAINLY OVER SW CT.

AN EVENING INTO MIDNIGHT AFFAIR WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES HOLDING RELATIVELY STEADY. ITS AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARDS
SATURDAY MORNING THAT WE CLEAR OUT AND SUBSEQUENTLY TEMPERATURES
DROP TO LOWS AROUND THE UPPER 30S. BREEZY SE FLOW EARLY BECOMING
LIGHT WITH PASSAGE WHICH WITH CLEARING WILL AID WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...

IF YOU HAVE ANY OUTDOOR PLANS THIS DAY IS THE PICK OF THE WEEKEND.
COMBINED DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
ANTICIPATED DISTURBANCE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL MAKE FOR A GOOD
DAY OF ANABATIC FLOW AS WINDS ARE LIGHT ALL THE WAY UP TO ROUGHLY
H7. ANTICIPATING AN INTERIOR FLOW UP THE MOUNTAIN SLOPES WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS ATOP. A LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IF ALL COMES
TOGETHER...SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS SPITTING OUT SOME WET
WEATHER ALONG THE RIDGE OF THE BERKSHIRES. COULD NOT RULE OUT A
SPRINKLE AS MOISTURE POOLS BENEATH A DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND
H8.

OTHERWISE WARMING WELL INTO THE 60S PRIOR TO SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
ENCROACHING FROM THE W BY EVENING. COOL ALONG THE SHORES WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW. WARMEST CONDITIONS IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY
SPRINGFIELD-HARTFORD METRO. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED 70 DEGREE
READING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MAIN QUESTION IS HOW EARLY WILL THE RAIN MOVE IN? CONSIDERING HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS INFLUENTIAL ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WITH RIDGING
TO THE W ALBEIT WEAK AS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING PROCEEDS TO THE W PARENT
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
APPROACH...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ENCROACHING
INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING. COLUMN IS FAIRLY MOIST
AND WITH THE WEAK LIFT PRESENT BASED ON SOUNDING ANALYSIS...IT IS
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME WET WEATHER. SO LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS FROM
THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY. LOWERING AND THICKENING OF
CLOUDS INTO MORNING WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RATHER STEADY.
MILDER TO THE W WITH THE THICKER BLANKET FOR LONGER...COOLER E WITH
CLOUDS LESSER SO. LOWS AROUND THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* DRYING TREND LIKELY TUE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY...
  ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...
BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY FROM WEDNESDAY ON. 29/12Z GUIDANCE SHOWING
A SIMILAR OVERALL TREND...BUT THE TIMING AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES
GET RATHER PROFOUND LATE NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES SHOWED A LARGE
ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...LEADING TO THIS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED IN BURSTS NEXT WEEK. ONE LOW PRESSURE
PASSES US BY ON MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM SOMETIME LATE NEXT
WEEK. NOT EXPECTING A TOTAL WASHOUT...BE WE COULD SEE MANY PERIODS
OF RAIN BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY...IT THIS SECOND LOW
PRESSURE SLOWS ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MOST OF THIS PERIOD STILL LIKELY TO BE COOL
AND WET. INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING
SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. RAIN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. 29/12Z GFS STILL LOOKS TO BE OVERDONE WITH ITS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TUESDAY WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY...
BUT NOT SO CONFIDENT. WHILE THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS BACK ACROSS GREAT LAKES...MOST OF THE MORE RELIABLE
GUIDANCE NOW SHOWING A DECENT SHORTWAVE HEADING OUR WAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WAVE COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH...TO TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS...IF ENOUGH MOISTURE COMES WITH IT. GFS IS
AGGRESSIVE IN DOING SO...WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS SLOWER TO
BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE NORTH.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL LOOKING LIKE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
COOLER TEMPS WILL RETURN AS MID LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS NE
WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COASTAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND WITH EASTERLY FLOW. LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE MID LEVEL
FLOW...WITH THE GFS KEEPING ITS MID LEVEL CUTOFF NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES...AND THE ECMWF HAVING A MUCH WEAKER CUTOFF OVER THE
CAROLINAS. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS. AT
PRESENT...THINKING THURSDAY WOULD BE THE MORE LIKELY DAY FOR WET
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

BKN-OVC LOW END VFR CIGS WITH -RA S/W EVENING INTO MIDNIGHT...
CLEARING TOWARDS MORNING. DOMINANT E FLOW.

SATURDAY...

SCT-BKN LOW-END VFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR MAINLY OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN. DOMINANT E FLOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

BKN-OVC CLOUDS LOWERING TOWARDS MORNING DOWN TO LOW-END VFR WITH A
LOW RISK OF MVFR. -RA FOR TERMINALS MAINLY W OF ORH.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS WITH DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRYING TREND WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

INCREASING E/SE FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THIS EVENING...EXITING TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING. AN
ISOLATED GUST UP TO 25 KTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SEAS BUILDING
POTENTIALLY UP TO 5 FEET ON THE S OUTER WATERS BUT WILL HOLD AT 4
FEET.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...

CONTINUED E/SE FLOW THOUGH NOT AS BREEZY WITH GUSTS REMAINING
BELOW 20 KTS. GOOD BOATING WEATHER. CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE LATE
TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING EASTERLY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO NORTH DURING
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A PERIOD OF
EASTERLY 25 KT PLUS GUSTS POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AND AGAIN DURING MONDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH. ROUGH SEAS GIVEN
THE LONG ENE FETCH. VSBYS REDUCED AT TIMES IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS BUT LEFTOVER ROUGH SEAS
LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS FROM ENE SWELLS. SEAS
DIMINISHING.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...BELK/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KGYX 292335
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
735 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE SOUTH OF CAPE COD ON MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS IN THE REGION COOL AND WET INTO
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER-SPREADING THE REGION FROM THE WEST
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THIS WILL BE THE FARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SHOULD NOT HAVE TOO MUCH AFFECT ON TEMPS BUT
SHOULD SEE READINGS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHTS. BY MIDNIGHT
NORTHERN ZONES WILL SEE TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 30S AND UPPER
30S TO MID 40S IN THE SOUTH. NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE
CURRENT FORECAST ASIDE FROM A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPS/TD`S.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
REMAINING MARINE STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT AND DISSIPATE WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. FARTHER W A WEAK S/WV WILL CROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR SRN NH
ESPECIALLY...BUT CLEARING OR THINNING OF CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY
TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT. TO THE N WE SHOULD RADIATE QUICKLY AFTER
DARK...WITH SRN ZONES TAKING LONGER TO REACH LOW TEMPS. ANOTHER
CHILLY NIGHT THOUGH FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES SAT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE A LITTLE MORE DRY ALOFT AND MARINE STRATUS LOOKS
LIKE LIKELY THAN TODAY. HOWEVER THE WIND OFF THE WATER WILL STILL
KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS COOLER THAN THE INTERIOR. MESOSCALE MODELS
HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS LOOK...SO TEMP BLENDS ARE MORE HEAVILY
WEIGHTED IN THEIR DIRECTION.

NEXT WAVE APPROACHES SAT NIGHT. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE INCREASING
CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPS OVERNIGHT. PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD
DELAY UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SUN...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS
SNEAK INTO WRN NH BEFORE THAT TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE TO START SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY ORGANIZED... BUT WILL
BECOME MORE SO AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND ON MONDAY. SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO FORM AND DEEPEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF CAPE COD EXPECT A DECENT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW TO AFFECT THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
THINGS RAIN AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT A FEW MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO SHIFT A BIT FURTHER
EAST LATE ON TUESDAY AS THE FLOW OVER THE EAST COAST BECOMES MORE
MERIDIONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND
PASS OVER CAPE COD BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MARINE STRATUS IN THE PROCESS OF
SCATTERING OUT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE W OVERNIGHT BUT CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE VFR THRU SUN MORNING. SELY ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PICK UP AGAIN SAT FOR PSM...PWM...RKD...AND AUG...MAYBE AS
FAR W AS MHT.

LONG TERM...VFR TO START SUNDAY BUT AS PRECIPITATION SETS UP
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH
SOME LIFR AREAS POSSIBLE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW GENERALLY S
TO SE WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT. WINDS GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25
KTS...AND SEAS BELOW 5 FT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS MAY COME UP ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY TO REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A MARITIME INFLUENCE INLAND OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE IN PLACE ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE. ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 25 PERCENT DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND UNDER RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT FUELS
REMAIN DRY SO FIRE DANGER MAY STAY ELEVATED. MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL SEE RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH WETTING RAINS
POSSIBLE FOR MANY OF THOSE LOCATIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KBOX 292004
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
404 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY TOWARD SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND...WITH ONE
MORE DAY OF QUIET WEATHER AND LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE FOR
SATURDAY. UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A BRIEF DRYING
TREND TUESDAY IS ONLY FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
INTO THIS EVENING...

THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR N/E IS KEEPING ALL
BUT SW NEW ENGLAND FAIRLY CLEAR. THOUGH ORIGINATING FLOW OFF THE
GULF OF MAINE IS ALSO KEEPING IT COOL. HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
UPPER 50S TO NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK WITH E FLOW.

NUISANCE CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS W MASS AND MUCH OF CT ASSOCIATED
WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY AND DECENT MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE H85-5
LAYER. EVALUATING UPSTREAM ACROSS THE E GREAT LAKES...CAN SEE THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCE FOR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE W TO E ACROSS THE
REGION...SO SOONER RATHER THAN LATER EVERYONE WILL BE BENEATH THE
BLANKET.

TONIGHT...

S/W FOCUS OF WET WEATHER. POTENT VORTEX SWEEPING OUT TO SEA S OF NEW
ENGLAND WITH FOCUS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE COLLOCATED WITH THE LEFT-
FRONT QUADRANT OF AN ACCOMPANYING JET MAX. LOTS OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. LOOKING AT A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN OVER SW NEW ENGLAND POSSIBLY
DRAGGING AS FAR N/E INTO CENTRAL AND SE NEW ENGLAND UP AGAINST HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE
WITH MOS AND SREF TOUTED MORE SO GIVEN SUCH A MARGINAL EVENT AND
WIGGLE ROOM. PALTRY AMOUNTS WITH UPWARDS OF A TENTH MAINLY OVER SW
CT.

AN EVENING INTO MIDNIGHT AFFAIR WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES HOLDING RELATIVELY STEADY. ITS AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARDS
SATURDAY MORNING THAT WE CLEAR OUT AND SUBSEQUENTLY TEMPERATURES
DROP TO LOWS AROUND THE UPPER 30S. BREEZY SE FLOW EARLY BECOMING
LIGHT WITH PASSAGE WHICH WITH CLEARING WILL AID WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...

IF YOU HAVE ANY OUTDOOR PLANS THIS DAY IS THE PICK OF THE WEEKEND.
COMBINED DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
ANTICIPATED DISTURBANCE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL MAKE FOR A GOOD
DAY OF ANABATIC FLOW AS WINDS ARE LIGHT ALL THE WAY UP TO ROUGHLY
H7. ANTICIPATING AN INTERIOR FLOW UP THE MOUNTAIN SLOPES WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS ATOP. A LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IF ALL COMES
TOGETHER...SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS SPITTING OUT SOME WET
WEATHER ALONG THE RIDGE OF THE BERKSHIRES. COULD NOT RULE OUT A
SPRINKLE AS MOISTURE POOLS BENEATH A DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND
H8.

OTHERWISE WARMING WELL INTO THE 60S PRIOR TO SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
ENCROACHING FROM THE W BY EVENING. COOL ALONG THE SHORES WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW. WARMEST CONDITIONS IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY
SPRINGFIELD-HARTFORD METRO. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED 70 DEGREE
READING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MAIN QUESTION IS HOW EARLY WILL THE RAIN MOVE IN? CONSIDERING HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS INFLUENTIAL ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WITH RIDGING
TO THE W ALBEIT WEAK AS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING PROCEEDS TO THE W PARENT
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
APPROACH...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ENCROACHING
INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING. COLUMN IS FAIRLY MOIST
AND WITH THE WEAK LIFT PRESENT BASED ON SOUNDING ANALYSIS...IT IS
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME WET WEATHER. SO LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS FROM
THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY. LOWERING AND THICKENING OF
CLOUDS INTO MORNING WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RATHER STEADY.
MILDER TO THE W WITH THE THICKER BLANKET FOR LONGER...COOLER E WITH
CLOUDS LESSER SO. LOWS AROUND THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* DRYING TREND LIKELY TUE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG
  WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...
BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY FROM WEDNESDAY ON. 29/12Z GUIDANCE SHOWING
A SIMILAR OVERALL TREND...BUT THE TIMING AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES
GET RATHER PROFOUND LATE NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES SHOWED A LARGE
ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...LEADING TO THIS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

UNSETTELED WEATHER EXPECTED IN BURSTS NEXT WEEK. ONE LOW PRESSURE
PASSES US BY ON MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM SOMETIME LATE NEXT
WEEK. NOT EXPECTING A TOTAL WASHOUT...BE WE COULD SEE MANY PERIODS
OF RAIN BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY...IT THIS SECOND LOW
PRESSURE SLOWS ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MOST OF THIS PERIOD STILL LIKELY TO BE COOL
AND WET. INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING
SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. RAIN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. 29/12Z GFS STILL LOOKS TO BE OVERDONE WITH ITS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TUESDAY WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY...
BUT NOT SO CONFIDENT. WHILE THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS BACK ACROSS GREAT LAKES...MOST OF THE MORE RELIABLE
GUIDANCE NOW SHOWING A DECENT SHORTWAVE HEADING OUR WAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WAVE COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH...TO TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS...IF ENOUGH MOISTURE COMES WITH IT. GFS IS
AGGRESSIVE IN DOING SO...WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS SLOWER TO
BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE NORTH.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL LOOKING LIKE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
COOLER TEMPS WILL RETURN AS MID LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS NE
WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COASTAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND WITH EASTERLY FLOW. LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE MID LEVEL
FLOW...WITH THE GFS KEEPING ITS MID LEVEL CUTOFF NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES...AND THE ECMWF HAVING A MUCH WEAKER CUTOFF OVER THE
CAROLINAS. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS. AT
PRESENT...THINKING THURSDAY WOULD BE THE MORE LIKELY DAY FOR WET
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

BKN-OVC LOW END VFR CIGS WITH -RA S/W EVENING INTO MIDNIGHT...
CLEARING TOWARDS MORNING. DOMINANT E FLOW.

SATURDAY...

SCT-BKN LOW-END VFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR MAINLY OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN. DOMINANT E FLOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

BKN-OVC CLOUDS LOWERING TOWARDS MORNING DOWN TO LOW-END VFR WITH A
LOW RISK OF MVFR. -RA FOR TERMINALS MAINLY W OF ORH.

KBOS TERMINAL...VFR. CONTINUED E FLOW.

KBDL TERMINAL...VFR.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS WITH DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRYING TREND WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

INCREASING E/SE FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THIS EVENING...EXITING TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING. AN
ISOLATED GUST UP TO 25 KTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SEAS BUILDING
POTENTIALLY UP TO 5 FEET ON THE S OUTER WATERS BUT WILL HOLD AT 4
FEET.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...

CONTINUED E/SE FLOW THOUGH NOT AS BREEZY WITH GUSTS REMAINING
BELOW 20 KTS. GOOD BOATING WEATHER. CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE LATE
TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING EASTERLY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO NORTH DURING
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A PERIOD OF
EASTERLY 25 KT PLUS GUSTS POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AND AGAIN DURING MONDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH. ROUGH SEAS GIVEN
THE LONG ENE FETCH. VSBYS REDUCED AT TIMES IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS BUT LEFTOVER ROUGH SEAS
LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS FROM ENE SWELLS. SEAS
DIMINISHING.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KGYX 291915
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
315 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE SOUTH OF CAPE COD ON MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS IN THE REGION COOL AND WET INTO
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REMAINING MARINE STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT AND DISSIPATE WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. FARTHER W A WEAK S/WV WILL CROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR SRN NH
ESPECIALLY...BUT CLEARING OR THINNING OF CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY
TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT. TO THE N WE SHOULD RADIATE QUICKLY AFTER
DARK...WITH SRN ZONES TAKING LONGER TO REACH LOW TEMPS. ANOTHER
CHILLY NIGHT THOUGH FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES SAT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE A LITTLE MORE DRY ALOFT AND MARINE STRATUS LOOKS
LIKE LIKELY THAN TODAY. HOWEVER THE WIND OFF THE WATER WILL STILL
KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS COOLER THAN THE INTERIOR. MESOSCALE MODELS
HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS LOOK...SO TEMP BLENDS ARE MORE HEAVILY
WEIGHTED IN THEIR DIRECTION.

NEXT WAVE APPROACHES SAT NIGHT. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE INCREASING
CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPS OVERNIGHT. PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD
DELAY UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SUN...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS
SNEAK INTO WRN NH BEFORE THAT TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE TO START SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY ORGANIZED... BUT WILL
BECOME MORE SO AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND ON MONDAY. SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO FORM AND DEEPEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF CAPE COD EXPECT A DECENT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW TO AFFECT THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
THINGS RAIN AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT A FEW MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO SHIFT A BIT FURTHER
EAST LATE ON TUESDAY AS THE FLOW OVER THE EAST COAST BECOMES MORE
MERIDIONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND
PASS OVER CAPE COD BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MARINE STRATUS IN THE PROCESS OF
SCATTERING OUT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE W OVERNIGHT BUT CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE VFR THRU SUN MORNING. SELY ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PICK UP AGAIN SAT FOR PSM...PWM...RKD...AND AUG...MAYBE AS
FAR W AS MHT.

LONG TERM...VFR TO START SUNDAY BUT AS PRECIPITATION SETS UP
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH
SOME LIFR AREAS POSSIBLE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW GENERALLY S
TO SE WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT. WINDS GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25
KTS...AND SEAS BELOW 5 FT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS MAY COME UP ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY TO REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A MARITIME INFLUENCE INLAND OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE IN PLACE ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE. ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 25 PERCENT DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND UNDER RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT FUELS
REMAIN DRY SO FIRE DANGER MAY STAY ELEVATED. MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL SEE RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH WETTING RAINS
POSSIBLE FOR MANY OF THOSE LOCATIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

POHL/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 291915
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
315 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE SOUTH OF CAPE COD ON MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS IN THE REGION COOL AND WET INTO
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REMAINING MARINE STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT AND DISSIPATE WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. FARTHER W A WEAK S/WV WILL CROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR SRN NH
ESPECIALLY...BUT CLEARING OR THINNING OF CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY
TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT. TO THE N WE SHOULD RADIATE QUICKLY AFTER
DARK...WITH SRN ZONES TAKING LONGER TO REACH LOW TEMPS. ANOTHER
CHILLY NIGHT THOUGH FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES SAT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE A LITTLE MORE DRY ALOFT AND MARINE STRATUS LOOKS
LIKE LIKELY THAN TODAY. HOWEVER THE WIND OFF THE WATER WILL STILL
KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS COOLER THAN THE INTERIOR. MESOSCALE MODELS
HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS LOOK...SO TEMP BLENDS ARE MORE HEAVILY
WEIGHTED IN THEIR DIRECTION.

NEXT WAVE APPROACHES SAT NIGHT. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE INCREASING
CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPS OVERNIGHT. PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD
DELAY UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SUN...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS
SNEAK INTO WRN NH BEFORE THAT TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE TO START SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY ORGANIZED... BUT WILL
BECOME MORE SO AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND ON MONDAY. SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO FORM AND DEEPEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF CAPE COD EXPECT A DECENT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW TO AFFECT THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
THINGS RAIN AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT A FEW MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO SHIFT A BIT FURTHER
EAST LATE ON TUESDAY AS THE FLOW OVER THE EAST COAST BECOMES MORE
MERIDIONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND
PASS OVER CAPE COD BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MARINE STRATUS IN THE PROCESS OF
SCATTERING OUT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE W OVERNIGHT BUT CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE VFR THRU SUN MORNING. SELY ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PICK UP AGAIN SAT FOR PSM...PWM...RKD...AND AUG...MAYBE AS
FAR W AS MHT.

LONG TERM...VFR TO START SUNDAY BUT AS PRECIPITATION SETS UP
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH
SOME LIFR AREAS POSSIBLE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW GENERALLY S
TO SE WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT. WINDS GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25
KTS...AND SEAS BELOW 5 FT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS MAY COME UP ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY TO REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A MARITIME INFLUENCE INLAND OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE IN PLACE ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE. ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 25 PERCENT DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND UNDER RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT FUELS
REMAIN DRY SO FIRE DANGER MAY STAY ELEVATED. MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL SEE RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH WETTING RAINS
POSSIBLE FOR MANY OF THOSE LOCATIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

POHL/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291830
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
230 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

 * UPDATES TO NEAR AND SHORT TERM FORECAST PORTIONS ONLY...

SHOWERS S/W OVERNIGHT WITH ONE MORE DAY OF QUIET WEATHER AND
LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY. UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER
FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. A BRIEF DRYING TREND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IS ONLY
FOLLOWED THEREAFTER BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

INTO THIS EVENING...

THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR N/E IS KEEPING ALL
BUT SW NEW ENGLAND FAIRLY CLEAR. THOUGH ORIGINATING FLOW OFF THE
GULF OF MAINE IS ALSO KEEPING IT COOL. HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
UPPER 50S TO NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK WITH E FLOW.

NUISANCE CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS W MASS AND MUCH OF CT ASSOCIATED
WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY AND DECENT MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE H85-5
LAYER. EVALUATING UPSTREAM ACROSS THE E GREAT LAKES...CAN SEE THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCE FOR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE W TO E ACROSS THE
REGION...SO SOONER RATHER THAN LATER EVERYONE WILL BE BENEATH THE
BLANKET.

TONIGHT...

S/W FOCUS OF WET WEATHER. POTENT VORTEX SWEEPING OUT TO SEA S OF NEW
ENGLAND WITH FOCUS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE COLLOCATED WITH THE LEFT-
FRONT QUADRANT OF AN ACCOMPANYING JET MAX. LOTS OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. LOOKING AT A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN OVER SW NEW ENGLAND POSSIBLY
DRAGGING AS FAR N/E INTO CENTRAL AND SE NEW ENGLAND UP AGAINST HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE
WITH MOS AND SREF TOUTED MORE SO GIVEN SUCH A MARGINAL EVENT AND
WIGGLE ROOM. PALTRY AMOUNTS WITH UPWARDS OF A TENTH MAINLY OVER SW
CT.

AN EVENING INTO MIDNIGHT AFFAIR WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES HOLDING RELATIVELY STEADY. ITS AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARDS
SATURDAY MORNING THAT WE CLEAR OUT AND SUBSEQUENTLY TEMPERATURES
DROP TO LOWS AROUND THE UPPER 30S. BREEZY SE FLOW EARLY BECOMING
LIGHT WITH PASSAGE WHICH WITH CLEARING WILL AID WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...

IF YOU HAVE ANY OUTDOOR PLANS THIS DAY IS THE PICK OF THE WEEKEND.
COMBINED DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
ANTICIPATED DISTURBANCE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL MAKE FOR A GOOD
DAY OF ANABATIC FLOW AS WINDS ARE LIGHT ALL THE WAY UP TO ROUGHLY
H7. ANTICIPATING AN INTERIOR FLOW UP THE MOUNTAIN SLOPES WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS ATOP. A LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IF ALL COMES
TOGETHER...SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS SPITTING OUT SOME WET
WEATHER ALONG THE RIDGE OF THE BERKSHIRES. COULD NOT RULE OUT A
SPRINKLE AS MOISTURE POOLS BENEATH A DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND
H8.

OTHERWISE WARMING WELL INTO THE 60S PRIOR TO SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
ENCROACHING FROM THE W BY EVENING. COOL ALONG THE SHORES WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW. WARMEST CONDITIONS IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY
SPRINGFIELD-HARTFORD METRO. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED 70 DEGREE
READING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MAIN QUESTION IS HOW EARLY WILL THE RAIN MOVE IN? CONSIDERING HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS INFLUENTIAL ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WITH RIDGING
TO THE W ALBEIT WEAK AS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING PROCEEDS TO THE W PARENT
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
APPROACH...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ENCROACHING
INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING. COLUMN IS FAIRLY MOIST
AND WITH THE WEAK LIFT PRESENT BASED ON SOUNDING ANALYSIS...IT IS
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME WET WEATHER. SO LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS FROM
THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY. LOWERING AND THICKENING OF
CLOUDS INTO MORNING WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RATHER STEADY.
MILDER TO THE W WITH THE THICKER BLANKET FOR LONGER...COOLER E WITH
CLOUDS LESSER SO. LOWS AROUND THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SUN INTO MON
* DRYING TREND LIKELY TUE AND POSSIBLY WED ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPS
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE THU

OVERVIEW...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND W CANADA WITH DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE GT
LAKES. EXPECT A PERIOD OF COOL AND WET CONDITIONS SUN INTO MON AS
LOW PRES TRACKS S OF NEW ENG. A BRIEF DRYING TREND AND MILDER TEMPS
WILL FOLLOW TUE AND POSSIBLY INTO WED IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES...THEN
MID LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES OVER THE LAKES WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF
COOLER AND WET WEATHER POSSIBLE BY THU.

SAT NIGHT...
HIGH PRES ACROSS E NEW ENG WILL SLOWLY MOVE E AS OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE SW. GFS IS FASTEST MOVING RAIN INTO SNE
LATER SAT NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF/NAM/GGEM/UKMET KEEP RAIN TO THE WEST.
FOLLOWED CONSENSUS OF DRY FORECAST WITH JUST A LOW PROB OF LIGHT
RAIN REACHING W NEW ENG LATE SAT NIGHT.

SUN INTO MON...
MOST OF THIS PERIOD LIKELY TO BE COOL AND WET. INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUN FROM WEST TO EASY AS OVERRUNNING
OF SFC BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH LEADS TO DEEP MOISTURE AND MODEST LIFT
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. RAIN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN AFTERNOON
ACROSS E NEW ENG. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SUNDAY. A SECOND PERIOD OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW PRES TRACKS S OF NEW
ENG...ALTHOUGH GFS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. ANOTHER
CHILLY DAY MON WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TUE INTO WED...
WEAK HIGH PRES SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TUE WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO WED AS MID LEVEL TROF
AXIS STILL BACK ACROSS GT LAKES.

THU...
LOOKS LIKE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPS WILL RETURN AS MID
LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS NE WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COASTAL
WAVE TO THE S OF NEW ENG WITH EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

BKN-OVC LOW END VFR CIGS WITH -RA S/W EVENING INTO MIDNIGHT...
CLEARING TOWARDS MORNING. DOMINANT E FLOW.

SATURDAY...

SCT-BKN LOW-END VFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR MAINLY OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN. DOMINANT E FLOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

BKN-OVC CLOUDS LOWERING TOWARDS MORNING DOWN TO LOW-END VFR WITH A
LOW RISK OF MVFR. -RA FOR TERMINALS MAINLY W OF ORH.

KBOS TERMINAL...VFR. CONTINUED E FLOW.

KBDL TERMINAL...VFR.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS WITH DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRYING TREND WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

INCREASING E/SE FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THIS EVENING...EXITING TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING. AN
ISOLATED GUST UP TO 25 KTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SEAS BUILDING
POTENTIALLY UP TO 5 FEET ON THE S OUTER WATERS BUT WILL HOLD AT 4
FEET.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...

CONTINUED E/SE FLOW THOUGH NOT AS BREEZY WITH GUSTS REMAINING
BELOW 20 KTS. GOOD BOATING WEATHER. CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE LATE
TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING EASTERLY
WINDS SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO NORTH DURING MON
AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A PERIOD OF EASTERLY SCA
GUSTS POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN DURING MON AS
WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH. ROUGH SEAS GIVEN THE LONG ENE FETCH. VSBYS
REDUCED AT TIMES IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS BUT LEFTOVER SCA SEAS LIKELY
FOR EASTERN WATERS FROM ENE SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291401
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1001 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WILL YIELD MILD AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY NIGHTS THROUGH SATURDAY. A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A DRYING TREND FOLLOWS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

ONE WAVE MOVING OUT BEFORE ANOTHER ONE MOVES IN. DISCERNIBLE VIA
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE A MID LEVEL VORTEX IS PRESENTLY SWEEPING S
NEW ENGLAND. SOME LIGHT RAIN / SHOWERY ACTIVITY ALONG ITS S AND W
EDGE AS IT SWEEPS E PER MID LEVEL FORCING OF A DECENT MOIST LAYER
BETWEEN H85-5 SEEN IN 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THINKING
FOR MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE HERE OR THERE TO THE S/W. OVERALL
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SINKING AIR WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE AND
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 60S.

COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH A PREVAILING E/SE ONSHORE FLOW PICKING
UP INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONGER MID
LEVEL VORTEX FOR LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A BATTLE OF AIRMASSES
WITH HIGH PRESSURE N/E AGAINST ENERGY MOVING IN FROM THE W. WOULD
EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE W WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE VORTEX...BUT DRY SINKING AIR LINGERS N/E. HIGH RES GUIDANCE
HAS THE VORTEX SLINKING S/E OF OUR REGION UP AGAINST THE PREVAILING
HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH COAST.  CONTINUED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
RADIATING OVERNIGHT.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COASTS.  SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SUN INTO MON
* DRYING TREND LIKELY TUE AND POSSIBLY WED ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPS
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE THU

OVERVIEW...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND W CANADA WITH DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE GT
LAKES. EXPECT A PERIOD OF COOL AND WET CONDITIONS SUN INTO MON AS
LOW PRES TRACKS S OF NEW ENG. A BRIEF DRYING TREND AND MILDER TEMPS
WILL FOLLOW TUE AND POSSIBLY INTO WED IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES...THEN
MID LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES OVER THE LAKES WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF
COOLER AND WET WEATHER POSSIBLE BY THU.

SAT NIGHT...
HIGH PRES ACROSS E NEW ENG WILL SLOWLY MOVE E AS OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE SW. GFS IS FASTEST MOVING RAIN INTO SNE
LATER SAT NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF/NAM/GGEM/UKMET KEEP RAIN TO THE WEST.
FOLLOWED CONSENSUS OF DRY FORECAST WITH JUST A LOW PROB OF LIGHT
RAIN REACHING W NEW ENG LATE SAT NIGHT.

SUN INTO MON...
MOST OF THIS PERIOD LIKELY TO BE COOL AND WET. INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUN FROM WEST TO EASY AS OVERRUNNING
OF SFC BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH LEADS TO DEEP MOISTURE AND MODEST LIFT
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. RAIN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN AFTERNOON
ACROSS E NEW ENG. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SUNDAY. A SECOND PERIOD OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW PRES TRACKS S OF NEW
ENG...ALTHOUGH GFS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. ANOTHER
CHILLY DAY MON WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TUE INTO WED...
WEAK HIGH PRES SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TUE WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO WED AS MID LEVEL TROF
AXIS STILL BACK ACROSS GT LAKES.

THU...
LOOKS LIKE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPS WILL RETURN AS MID
LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS NE WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COASTAL
WAVE TO THE S OF NEW ENG WITH EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LOW-END VFR CIGS WITH -SHRA PREVAIL S/W THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
WITH BREEZY SE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. MODERATE RISK OF MVFR FOR S/W
CT AND RI AS WELL AS S COASTAL MASS TERMINALS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE
VFR WITH LIGHT MAINLY E FLOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...BREEZY E FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WITH A GRADUAL
VEERING FROM THE SE TOWARDS EVENING. VFR CIGS WITH A MOSTLY MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK.

KBDL TERMINAL...VFR.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS. LIGHT RAIN MAY REACH
W NEW ENG TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS WITH DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRYING TREND WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER OVERALL. EXPECT WET WEATHER ACTIVITY LATE
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT OVER THE S/W WATERS OFF OF THE S-COAST OF
RI/MASS. BREEZY SE FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS TODAY...ISOLATED
25 KTS...DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT WHILE REMAINING EASTERLY
ALL THE WAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS.

SUNDAY INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS SUN
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO NORTH DURING MON AS LOW PRES
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A PERIOD OF EASTERLY SCA GUSTS
POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN DURING MON AS WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTH. ROUGH SEAS GIVEN THE LONG ENE FETCH. VSBYS REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS BUT LEFTOVER SCA SEAS LIKELY
FOR EASTERN WATERS FROM ENE SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291401
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1001 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WILL YIELD MILD AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY NIGHTS THROUGH SATURDAY. A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A DRYING TREND FOLLOWS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

ONE WAVE MOVING OUT BEFORE ANOTHER ONE MOVES IN. DISCERNIBLE VIA
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE A MID LEVEL VORTEX IS PRESENTLY SWEEPING S
NEW ENGLAND. SOME LIGHT RAIN / SHOWERY ACTIVITY ALONG ITS S AND W
EDGE AS IT SWEEPS E PER MID LEVEL FORCING OF A DECENT MOIST LAYER
BETWEEN H85-5 SEEN IN 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THINKING
FOR MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE HERE OR THERE TO THE S/W. OVERALL
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SINKING AIR WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE AND
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 60S.

COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH A PREVAILING E/SE ONSHORE FLOW PICKING
UP INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONGER MID
LEVEL VORTEX FOR LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A BATTLE OF AIRMASSES
WITH HIGH PRESSURE N/E AGAINST ENERGY MOVING IN FROM THE W. WOULD
EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE W WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE VORTEX...BUT DRY SINKING AIR LINGERS N/E. HIGH RES GUIDANCE
HAS THE VORTEX SLINKING S/E OF OUR REGION UP AGAINST THE PREVAILING
HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH COAST.  CONTINUED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
RADIATING OVERNIGHT.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COASTS.  SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SUN INTO MON
* DRYING TREND LIKELY TUE AND POSSIBLY WED ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPS
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE THU

OVERVIEW...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND W CANADA WITH DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE GT
LAKES. EXPECT A PERIOD OF COOL AND WET CONDITIONS SUN INTO MON AS
LOW PRES TRACKS S OF NEW ENG. A BRIEF DRYING TREND AND MILDER TEMPS
WILL FOLLOW TUE AND POSSIBLY INTO WED IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES...THEN
MID LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES OVER THE LAKES WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF
COOLER AND WET WEATHER POSSIBLE BY THU.

SAT NIGHT...
HIGH PRES ACROSS E NEW ENG WILL SLOWLY MOVE E AS OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE SW. GFS IS FASTEST MOVING RAIN INTO SNE
LATER SAT NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF/NAM/GGEM/UKMET KEEP RAIN TO THE WEST.
FOLLOWED CONSENSUS OF DRY FORECAST WITH JUST A LOW PROB OF LIGHT
RAIN REACHING W NEW ENG LATE SAT NIGHT.

SUN INTO MON...
MOST OF THIS PERIOD LIKELY TO BE COOL AND WET. INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUN FROM WEST TO EASY AS OVERRUNNING
OF SFC BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH LEADS TO DEEP MOISTURE AND MODEST LIFT
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. RAIN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN AFTERNOON
ACROSS E NEW ENG. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SUNDAY. A SECOND PERIOD OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW PRES TRACKS S OF NEW
ENG...ALTHOUGH GFS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. ANOTHER
CHILLY DAY MON WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TUE INTO WED...
WEAK HIGH PRES SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TUE WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO WED AS MID LEVEL TROF
AXIS STILL BACK ACROSS GT LAKES.

THU...
LOOKS LIKE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPS WILL RETURN AS MID
LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS NE WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COASTAL
WAVE TO THE S OF NEW ENG WITH EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LOW-END VFR CIGS WITH -SHRA PREVAIL S/W THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
WITH BREEZY SE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. MODERATE RISK OF MVFR FOR S/W
CT AND RI AS WELL AS S COASTAL MASS TERMINALS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE
VFR WITH LIGHT MAINLY E FLOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...BREEZY E FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WITH A GRADUAL
VEERING FROM THE SE TOWARDS EVENING. VFR CIGS WITH A MOSTLY MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK.

KBDL TERMINAL...VFR.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS. LIGHT RAIN MAY REACH
W NEW ENG TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS WITH DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRYING TREND WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER OVERALL. EXPECT WET WEATHER ACTIVITY LATE
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT OVER THE S/W WATERS OFF OF THE S-COAST OF
RI/MASS. BREEZY SE FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS TODAY...ISOLATED
25 KTS...DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT WHILE REMAINING EASTERLY
ALL THE WAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS.

SUNDAY INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS SUN
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO NORTH DURING MON AS LOW PRES
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A PERIOD OF EASTERLY SCA GUSTS
POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN DURING MON AS WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTH. ROUGH SEAS GIVEN THE LONG ENE FETCH. VSBYS REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS BUT LEFTOVER SCA SEAS LIKELY
FOR EASTERN WATERS FROM ENE SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KGYX 291333 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
933 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW PASSING
OFFSHORE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...A FEW CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE. ONSHORE FLOW
AND MODEST MOISTURE ACROSS SRN ZONES IS ALLOWING MARINE STRATUS TO
FORM. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE ACROSS COASTAL SWRN ME AND
SEACOAST NH...WHERE FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE IS LIKELY ENHANCING
LIFT ENOUGH TO EXPAND CLOUD COVER. IN ADDITION...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP ENOUGH CLOUD TO SUPPORT SOME PRECIP. OVERALL
THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL QUITE DRY...SO WILL INCLUDE SPRINKLES FOR
COASTAL ZONES...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH
TO WET THE GROUND.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINED DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GOES INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWED HIGH AND PATCHY MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MAINE. FOR TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BRIGHTEST SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND THE MAINE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS FURTHER SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH THE
COOLEST READINGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST AS THE LIGHT
SYNOPTIC FLOW QUICKLY TURNS ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS WILL
BRIEFLY THICKEN EARLY TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE INTO ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MAINE AS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
RACES ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S
ACROSS NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN SECTIONS WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MINIMAL TO THE 30S ELSEWHERE. IT`LL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ON
SATURDAY AS 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE. SIMILAR
TO TODAY...THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND OVER MOUNTAIN
SECTIONS...AND ALONG THE COAST AS LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW TURNS
ONSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WX: NONE.

500 MB PATTERN WILL REMAIN WELL AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALBEIT WITH A BRIEF BREAK DOWN OF THE BLOCKING OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A WELL AMPLIFIED TROUGH
TRIED TO FORM INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VLYS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO AN UNSETTLED...AND LOW CONFIDENCE...FORECAST PERIOD STARTING
SUNDAY AND EXTENDING INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

MODELS DO SHOW BETTER LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS SHALLOW BUT POTENT 500MB WAVE TRACKS THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND
MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE CT VLY ON SUNDAY AS DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND THE FACT THAT MID-LVL WAA MOVES INTO WEAK
RIDGING AT 500 MB. DEVELOPING ONSHORE COULD PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE
ON THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND TRACKS JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
GFS. WHILE BOTH MODELS PRODUCE A SIMILAR TRACK...GFS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEEPENING THE SFC LOW AND HAS MORE QPF...BUT
NEITHER MODELS PRODUCES A SOAKER...GENERALLY HALF TO AS MUCH A
0.75 INCHES IN THE GFS. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE EURO AND ITS
OVERALL BETTER PERFORMANCE. SINCE THERE IS SOME COLD AIR BEING
PULLED SOUTH AND BEING GENERATED BY PRECIP PROCESS...HAVE TO TALK
ABOUT SNOW...BIT THIS SYSTEM IS WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM
FORM TUESDAY...AND 850 TEMPS GENERALLY STAY ABOVE -2C /COMPARED TO
-4 OR -5 LAST TUESDAY/...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW ON MONDAY...BUT EVERYWHERE ELSE SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN. THE SFC
LOW WILL TRACK OUT TO THE NE QUICKLY BY TUE MORNING AND TUE-WED
LOOK MAINLY DRY IN THE EURO...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR
SOUTH. BY THURSDAY COULD SEE ANOTHER COASTAL LOW BRING SOME RAIN
TO THE REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL BE RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL...BUT THE COOLEST DAYS WILL BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS
SUNDAY AROUND 50...AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S TO MAYBE 50.
OVERALL THOUGH...SHOULD SEE A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND MID-LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...LCL MVFR PSBL THIS AM IN
CEILINGS...OTW VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME
MVFR POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON. EXTENDED PERIOD OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS /PROBABLE IFR OR LOWER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY/ IN
RA AND DZ AND LOW CIGS. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR MON NIGHT AND VFR
TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEREFORE NO SCAS ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LOCALLY ONSHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...MAY NEED SCA FOR BOTH WINDS/SEAS MONDAY AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ONSHORE WIND WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE MAINE
COASTAL PLAIN. ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE WESTERN MAINE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE
FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SIMILAR RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT IS LIKELY FOR LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 291333 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
933 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW PASSING
OFFSHORE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...A FEW CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE. ONSHORE FLOW
AND MODEST MOISTURE ACROSS SRN ZONES IS ALLOWING MARINE STRATUS TO
FORM. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE ACROSS COASTAL SWRN ME AND
SEACOAST NH...WHERE FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE IS LIKELY ENHANCING
LIFT ENOUGH TO EXPAND CLOUD COVER. IN ADDITION...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP ENOUGH CLOUD TO SUPPORT SOME PRECIP. OVERALL
THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL QUITE DRY...SO WILL INCLUDE SPRINKLES FOR
COASTAL ZONES...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH
TO WET THE GROUND.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINED DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GOES INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWED HIGH AND PATCHY MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MAINE. FOR TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BRIGHTEST SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND THE MAINE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS FURTHER SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH THE
COOLEST READINGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST AS THE LIGHT
SYNOPTIC FLOW QUICKLY TURNS ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS WILL
BRIEFLY THICKEN EARLY TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE INTO ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MAINE AS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
RACES ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S
ACROSS NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN SECTIONS WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MINIMAL TO THE 30S ELSEWHERE. IT`LL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ON
SATURDAY AS 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE. SIMILAR
TO TODAY...THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND OVER MOUNTAIN
SECTIONS...AND ALONG THE COAST AS LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW TURNS
ONSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WX: NONE.

500 MB PATTERN WILL REMAIN WELL AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALBEIT WITH A BRIEF BREAK DOWN OF THE BLOCKING OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A WELL AMPLIFIED TROUGH
TRIED TO FORM INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VLYS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO AN UNSETTLED...AND LOW CONFIDENCE...FORECAST PERIOD STARTING
SUNDAY AND EXTENDING INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

MODELS DO SHOW BETTER LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS SHALLOW BUT POTENT 500MB WAVE TRACKS THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND
MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE CT VLY ON SUNDAY AS DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND THE FACT THAT MID-LVL WAA MOVES INTO WEAK
RIDGING AT 500 MB. DEVELOPING ONSHORE COULD PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE
ON THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND TRACKS JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
GFS. WHILE BOTH MODELS PRODUCE A SIMILAR TRACK...GFS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEEPENING THE SFC LOW AND HAS MORE QPF...BUT
NEITHER MODELS PRODUCES A SOAKER...GENERALLY HALF TO AS MUCH A
0.75 INCHES IN THE GFS. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE EURO AND ITS
OVERALL BETTER PERFORMANCE. SINCE THERE IS SOME COLD AIR BEING
PULLED SOUTH AND BEING GENERATED BY PRECIP PROCESS...HAVE TO TALK
ABOUT SNOW...BIT THIS SYSTEM IS WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM
FORM TUESDAY...AND 850 TEMPS GENERALLY STAY ABOVE -2C /COMPARED TO
-4 OR -5 LAST TUESDAY/...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW ON MONDAY...BUT EVERYWHERE ELSE SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN. THE SFC
LOW WILL TRACK OUT TO THE NE QUICKLY BY TUE MORNING AND TUE-WED
LOOK MAINLY DRY IN THE EURO...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR
SOUTH. BY THURSDAY COULD SEE ANOTHER COASTAL LOW BRING SOME RAIN
TO THE REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL BE RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL...BUT THE COOLEST DAYS WILL BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS
SUNDAY AROUND 50...AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S TO MAYBE 50.
OVERALL THOUGH...SHOULD SEE A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND MID-LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...LCL MVFR PSBL THIS AM IN
CEILINGS...OTW VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME
MVFR POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON. EXTENDED PERIOD OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS /PROBABLE IFR OR LOWER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY/ IN
RA AND DZ AND LOW CIGS. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR MON NIGHT AND VFR
TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEREFORE NO SCAS ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LOCALLY ONSHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...MAY NEED SCA FOR BOTH WINDS/SEAS MONDAY AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ONSHORE WIND WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE MAINE
COASTAL PLAIN. ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE WESTERN MAINE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE
FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SIMILAR RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT IS LIKELY FOR LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291122
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
722 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WILL YIELD MILD AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY NIGHTS THROUGH SATURDAY. A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A DRYING TREND FOLLOWS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
720 AM UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST AND
ISLANDS WILL BE EXITING DURING THE NEXT HOUR. CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB WILL RESULT IN MOCLDY SKIES IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO PTSUNNY SKIES IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE MOISTURE IS NOT AS ROBUST. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWER 60S CT VALLEY. LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL LEAD TO SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH COAST.  CONTINUED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
RADIATING OVERNIGHT.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COASTS.  SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SUN INTO MON
* DRYING TREND LIKELY TUE AND POSSIBLY WED ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPS
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE THU

OVERVIEW...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND W CANADA WITH DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE GT
LAKES. EXPECT A PERIOD OF COOL AND WET CONDITIONS SUN INTO MON AS
LOW PRES TRACKS S OF NEW ENG. A BRIEF DRYING TREND AND MILDER TEMPS
WILL FOLLOW TUE AND POSSIBLY INTO WED IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES...THEN
MID LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES OVER THE LAKES WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF
COOLER AND WET WEATHER POSSIBLE BY THU.

SAT NIGHT...
HIGH PRES ACROSS E NEW ENG WILL SLOWLY MOVE E AS OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE SW. GFS IS FASTEST MOVING RAIN INTO SNE
LATER SAT NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF/NAM/GGEM/UKMET KEEP RAIN TO THE WEST.
FOLLOWED CONSENSUS OF DRY FORECAST WITH JUST A LOW PROB OF LIGHT
RAIN REACHING W NEW ENG LATE SAT NIGHT.

SUN INTO MON...
MOST OF THIS PERIOD LIKELY TO BE COOL AND WET. INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUN FROM WEST TO EASY AS OVERRUNNING
OF SFC BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH LEADS TO DEEP MOISTURE AND MODEST LIFT
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. RAIN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN AFTERNOON
ACROSS E NEW ENG. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SUNDAY. A SECOND PERIOD OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW PRES TRACKS S OF NEW
ENG...ALTHOUGH GFS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. ANOTHER
CHILLY DAY MON WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TUE INTO WED...
WEAK HIGH PRES SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TUE WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO WED AS MID LEVEL TROF
AXIS STILL BACK ACROSS GT LAKES.

THU...
LOOKS LIKE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPS WILL RETURN AS MID
LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS NE WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COASTAL
WAVE TO THE S OF NEW ENG WITH EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

PATCHY MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING IN THE INTERIOR...OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH THE EAST AND SOUTH COASTS TODAY AND
SATURDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS. LIGHT RAIN MAY REACH
W NEW ENG TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS WITH DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRYING TREND WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.  THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A FEW BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS.

SUNDAY INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS SUN
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO NORTH DURING MON AS LOW PRES
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A PERIOD OF EASTERLY SCA GUSTS
POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN DURING MON AS WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTH. ROUGH SEAS GIVEN THE LONG ENE FETCH. VSBYS REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS BUT LEFTOVER SCA SEAS LIKELY
FOR EASTERN WATERS FROM ENE SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KGYX 291008
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
608 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW PASSING
OFFSHORE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT GOES SATELLITE
TRENDS AND TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET INTO NEAR TERMS GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINED DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GOES INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWED HIGH AND PATCHY MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MAINE. FOR TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BRIGHTEST SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND THE MAINE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS FURTHER SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH THE
COOLEST READINGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST AS THE LIGHT
SYNOPTIC FLOW QUICKLY TURNS ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS WILL
BRIEFLY THICKEN EARLY TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE INTO ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MAINE AS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
RACES ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S
ACROSS NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN SECTIONS WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MINIMAL TO THE 30S ELSEWHERE. IT`LL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ON
SATURDAY AS 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE. SIMILAR
TO TODAY...THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND OVER MOUNTAIN
SECTIONS...AND ALONG THE COAST AS LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW TURNS
ONSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WX: NONE.

500 MB PATTERN WILL REMAIN WELL AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALBEIT WITH A BRIEF BREAK DOWN OF THE BLOCKING OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A WELL AMPLIFIED TROUGH
TRIED TO FORM INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VLYS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO AN UNSETTLED...AND LOW CONFIDENCE...FORECAST PERIOD STARTING
SUNDAY AND EXTENDING INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

MODELS DO SHOW BETTER LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS SHALLOW BUT POTENT 500MB WAVE TRACKS THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND
MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE CT VLY ON SUNDAY AS DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND THE FACT THAT MID-LVL WAA MOVES INTO WEAK
RIDGING AT 500 MB. DEVELOPING ONSHORE COULD PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE
ON THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND TRACKS JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
GFS. WHILE BOTH MODELS PRODUCE A SIMILAR TRACK...GFS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEEPENING THE SFC LOW AND HAS MORE QPF...BUT
NEITHER MODELS PRODUCES A SOAKER...GENERALLY HALF TO AS MUCH A
0.75 INCHES IN THE GFS. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE EURO AND ITS
OVERALL BETTER PERFORMANCE. SINCE THERE IS SOME COLD AIR BEING
PULLED SOUTH AND BEING GENERATED BY PRECIP PROCESS...HAVE TO TALK
ABOUT SNOW...BIT THIS SYSTEM IS WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM
FORM TUESDAY...AND 850 TEMPS GENERALLY STAY ABOVE -2C /COMPARED TO
-4 OR -5 LAST TUESDAY/...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW ON MONDAY...BUT EVERYWHERE ELSE SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN. THE SFC
LOW WILL TRACK OUT TO THE NE QUICKLY BY TUE MORNING AND TUE-WED
LOOK MAINLY DRY IN THE EURO...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR
SOUTH. BY THURSDAY COULD SEE ANOTHER COASTAL LOW BRING SOME RAIN
TO THE REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL BE RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL...BUT THE COOLEST DAYS WILL BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS
SUNDAY AROUND 50...AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S TO MAYBE 50.
OVERALL THOUGH...SHOULD SEE A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND MID-LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...LCL MVFR PSBL THIS AM IN
CEILINGS...OTW VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME
MVFR POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON. EXTENDED PERIOD OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS /PROBABLE IFR OR LOWER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY/ IN
RA AND DZ AND LOW CIGS. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR MON NIGHT AND VFR
TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEREFORE NO SCAS ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LOCALLY ONSHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...MAY NEED SCA FOR BOTH WINDS/SEAS MONDAY AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ONSHORE WIND WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE MAINE
COASTAL PLAIN. ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE WESTERN MAINE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE
FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SIMILAR RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT IS LIKELY FOR LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290740
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
340 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WILL YIELD MILD AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY NIGHTS THROUGH SATURDAY. A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A DRYING TREND FOLLOWS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  THERE CONTINUE TO BE A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.  EXPECT THESE TO CLEAR UP BY THE MORNING
HOURS.

TODAY...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE.  NORTH OF THE PIKE...EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION BUT
A FEW PEEKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE. THE CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIMIT
TEMPERATURES A BIT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL GET INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.  EXCEPTIONS ARE IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHERE TEMPS
WILL BE AROUND 60 AND ALONG THE COAST WHERE THEY/LL BE AROUND 50.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH COAST.  CONTINUED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
RADIATING OVERNIGHT.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COASTS.  SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SUN INTO MON
* DRYING TREND LIKELY TUE AND POSSIBLY WED ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPS
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE THU

OVERVIEW...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND W CANADA WITH DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE GT
LAKES. EXPECT A PERIOD OF COOL AND WET CONDITIONS SUN INTO MON AS
LOW PRES TRACKS S OF NEW ENG. A BRIEF DRYING TREND AND MILDER TEMPS
WILL FOLLOW TUE AND POSSIBLY INTO WED IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES...THEN
MID LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES OVER THE LAKES WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF
COOLER AND WET WEATHER POSSIBLE BY THU.

SAT NIGHT...
HIGH PRES ACROSS E NEW ENG WILL SLOWLY MOVE E AS OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE SW. GFS IS FASTEST MOVING RAIN INTO SNE
LATER SAT NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF/NAM/GGEM/UKMET KEEP RAIN TO THE WEST.
FOLLOWED CONSENSUS OF DRY FORECAST WITH JUST A LOW PROB OF LIGHT
RAIN REACHING W NEW ENG LATE SAT NIGHT.

SUN INTO MON...
MOST OF THIS PERIOD LIKELY TO BE COOL AND WET. INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUN FROM WEST TO EASY AS OVERRUNNING
OF SFC BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH LEADS TO DEEP MOISTURE AND MODEST LIFT
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. RAIN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN AFTERNOON
ACROSS E NEW ENG. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SUNDAY. A SECOND PERIOD OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW PRES TRACKS S OF NEW
ENG...ALTHOUGH GFS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. ANOTHER
CHILLY DAY MON WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TUE INTO WED...
WEAK HIGH PRES SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TUE WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO WED AS MID LEVEL TROF
AXIS STILL BACK ACROSS GT LAKES.

THU...
LOOKS LIKE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPS WILL RETURN AS MID
LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS NE WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COASTAL
WAVE TO THE S OF NEW ENG WITH EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.  SEA BREEZES ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH THE EAST AND SOUTH COASTS TODAY AND
SATURDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS. LIGHT RAIN MAY REACH
W NEW ENG TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS WITH DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRYING TREND WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.  THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A FEW BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS.

SUNDAY INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS SUN
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO NORTH DURING MON AS LOW PRES
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A PERIOD OF EASTERLY SCA GUSTS
POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN DURING MON AS WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTH. ROUGH SEAS GIVEN THE LONG ENE FETCH. VSBYS REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS BUT LEFTOVER SCA SEAS LIKELY
FOR EASTERN WATERS FROM ENE SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290740
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
340 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WILL YIELD MILD AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY NIGHTS THROUGH SATURDAY. A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A DRYING TREND FOLLOWS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  THERE CONTINUE TO BE A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.  EXPECT THESE TO CLEAR UP BY THE MORNING
HOURS.

TODAY...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE.  NORTH OF THE PIKE...EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION BUT
A FEW PEEKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE. THE CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIMIT
TEMPERATURES A BIT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL GET INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.  EXCEPTIONS ARE IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHERE TEMPS
WILL BE AROUND 60 AND ALONG THE COAST WHERE THEY/LL BE AROUND 50.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH COAST.  CONTINUED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
RADIATING OVERNIGHT.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COASTS.  SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SUN INTO MON
* DRYING TREND LIKELY TUE AND POSSIBLY WED ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPS
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE THU

OVERVIEW...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND W CANADA WITH DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE GT
LAKES. EXPECT A PERIOD OF COOL AND WET CONDITIONS SUN INTO MON AS
LOW PRES TRACKS S OF NEW ENG. A BRIEF DRYING TREND AND MILDER TEMPS
WILL FOLLOW TUE AND POSSIBLY INTO WED IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES...THEN
MID LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES OVER THE LAKES WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF
COOLER AND WET WEATHER POSSIBLE BY THU.

SAT NIGHT...
HIGH PRES ACROSS E NEW ENG WILL SLOWLY MOVE E AS OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE SW. GFS IS FASTEST MOVING RAIN INTO SNE
LATER SAT NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF/NAM/GGEM/UKMET KEEP RAIN TO THE WEST.
FOLLOWED CONSENSUS OF DRY FORECAST WITH JUST A LOW PROB OF LIGHT
RAIN REACHING W NEW ENG LATE SAT NIGHT.

SUN INTO MON...
MOST OF THIS PERIOD LIKELY TO BE COOL AND WET. INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUN FROM WEST TO EASY AS OVERRUNNING
OF SFC BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH LEADS TO DEEP MOISTURE AND MODEST LIFT
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. RAIN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN AFTERNOON
ACROSS E NEW ENG. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SUNDAY. A SECOND PERIOD OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW PRES TRACKS S OF NEW
ENG...ALTHOUGH GFS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. ANOTHER
CHILLY DAY MON WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TUE INTO WED...
WEAK HIGH PRES SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TUE WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO WED AS MID LEVEL TROF
AXIS STILL BACK ACROSS GT LAKES.

THU...
LOOKS LIKE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPS WILL RETURN AS MID
LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS NE WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COASTAL
WAVE TO THE S OF NEW ENG WITH EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.  SEA BREEZES ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH THE EAST AND SOUTH COASTS TODAY AND
SATURDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS. LIGHT RAIN MAY REACH
W NEW ENG TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS WITH DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRYING TREND WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.  THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A FEW BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS.

SUNDAY INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS SUN
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO NORTH DURING MON AS LOW PRES
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A PERIOD OF EASTERLY SCA GUSTS
POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN DURING MON AS WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTH. ROUGH SEAS GIVEN THE LONG ENE FETCH. VSBYS REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS BUT LEFTOVER SCA SEAS LIKELY
FOR EASTERN WATERS FROM ENE SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KGYX 290731
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
331 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW PASSING
OFFSHORE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINED DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GOES INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWED HIGH AND PATCHY MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MAINE. FOR TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BRIGHTEST SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND THE MAINE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS FURTHER SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH THE
COOLEST READINGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST AS THE LIGHT
SYNOPTIC FLOW QUICKLY TURNS ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS WILL
BRIEFLY THICKEN EARLY TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE INTO ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MAINE AS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
RACES ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S
ACROSS NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN SECTIONS WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MINIMAL TO THE 30S ELSEWHERE. IT`LL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ON
SATURDAY AS 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE. SIMILAR
TO TODAY...THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND OVER MOUNTAIN
SECTIONS...AND ALONG THE COAST AS LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW TURNS
ONSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WX: NONE.

500 MB PATTERN WILL REMAIN WELL AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALBEIT WITH A BRIEF BREAK DOWN OF THE BLOCKING OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A WELL AMPLIFIED TROUGH
TRIED TO FORM INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VLYS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO AN UNSETTLED...AND LOW CONFIDENCE...FORECAST PERIOD STARTING
SUNDAY AND EXTENDING INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

MODELS DO SHOW BETTER LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS SHALLOW BUT POTENT 500MB WAVE TRACKS THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND
MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE CT VLY ON SUNDAY AS DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND THE FACT THAT MID-LVL WAA MOVES INTO WEAK
RIDGING AT 500 MB. DEVELOPING ONSHORE COULD PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE
ON THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND TRACKS JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
GFS. WHILE BOTH MODELS PRODUCE A SIMILAR TRACK...GFS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEEPENING THE SFC LOW AND HAS MORE QPF...BUT
NEITHER MODELS PRODUCES A SOAKER...GENERALLY HALF TO AS MUCH A
0.75 INCHES IN THE GFS. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE EURO AND ITS
OVERALL BETTER PERFORMANCE. SINCE THERE IS SOME COLD AIR BEING
PULLED SOUTH AND BEING GENERATED BY PRECIP PROCESS...HAVE TO TALK
ABOUT SNOW...BIT THIS SYSTEM IS WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM
FORM TUESDAY...AND 850 TEMPS GENERALLY STAY ABOVE -2C /COMPARED TO
-4 OR -5 LAST TUESDAY/...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW ON MONDAY...BUT EVERYWHERE ELSE SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN. THE SFC
LOW WILL TRACK OUT TO THE NE QUICKLY BY TUE MORNING AND TUE-WED
LOOK MAINLY DRY IN THE EURO...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR
SOUTH. BY THURSDAY COULD SEE ANOTHER COASTAL LOW BRING SOME RAIN
TO THE REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL BE RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL...BUT THE COOLEST DAYS WILL BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS
SUNDAY AROUND 50...AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S TO MAYBE 50.
OVERALL THOUGH...SHOULD SEE A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND MID-LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...LCL MVFR PSBL THIS AM IN
CEILINGS...OTW VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME
MVFR POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON. EXTENDED PERIOD OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS /PROBABLE IFR OR LOWER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY/ IN
RA AND DZ AND LOW CIGS. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR MON NIGHT AND VFR
TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEREFORE NO SCAS ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LOCALLY ONSHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...MAY NEED SCA FOR BOTH WINDS/SEAS MONDAY AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ONSHORE WIND WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE MAINE
COASTAL PLAIN. ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE WESTERN MAINE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE
FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SIMILAR RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT IS LIKELY FOR LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SCHWIBS
SHORT TERM...SCHWIBS
LONG TERM...CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 290731
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
331 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW PASSING
OFFSHORE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINED DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GOES INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWED HIGH AND PATCHY MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MAINE. FOR TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BRIGHTEST SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND THE MAINE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS FURTHER SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH THE
COOLEST READINGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST AS THE LIGHT
SYNOPTIC FLOW QUICKLY TURNS ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS WILL
BRIEFLY THICKEN EARLY TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE INTO ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MAINE AS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
RACES ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S
ACROSS NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN SECTIONS WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MINIMAL TO THE 30S ELSEWHERE. IT`LL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ON
SATURDAY AS 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE. SIMILAR
TO TODAY...THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND OVER MOUNTAIN
SECTIONS...AND ALONG THE COAST AS LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW TURNS
ONSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WX: NONE.

500 MB PATTERN WILL REMAIN WELL AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALBEIT WITH A BRIEF BREAK DOWN OF THE BLOCKING OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A WELL AMPLIFIED TROUGH
TRIED TO FORM INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VLYS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO AN UNSETTLED...AND LOW CONFIDENCE...FORECAST PERIOD STARTING
SUNDAY AND EXTENDING INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

MODELS DO SHOW BETTER LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS SHALLOW BUT POTENT 500MB WAVE TRACKS THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND
MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE CT VLY ON SUNDAY AS DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND THE FACT THAT MID-LVL WAA MOVES INTO WEAK
RIDGING AT 500 MB. DEVELOPING ONSHORE COULD PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE
ON THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND TRACKS JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
GFS. WHILE BOTH MODELS PRODUCE A SIMILAR TRACK...GFS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEEPENING THE SFC LOW AND HAS MORE QPF...BUT
NEITHER MODELS PRODUCES A SOAKER...GENERALLY HALF TO AS MUCH A
0.75 INCHES IN THE GFS. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE EURO AND ITS
OVERALL BETTER PERFORMANCE. SINCE THERE IS SOME COLD AIR BEING
PULLED SOUTH AND BEING GENERATED BY PRECIP PROCESS...HAVE TO TALK
ABOUT SNOW...BIT THIS SYSTEM IS WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM
FORM TUESDAY...AND 850 TEMPS GENERALLY STAY ABOVE -2C /COMPARED TO
-4 OR -5 LAST TUESDAY/...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW ON MONDAY...BUT EVERYWHERE ELSE SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN. THE SFC
LOW WILL TRACK OUT TO THE NE QUICKLY BY TUE MORNING AND TUE-WED
LOOK MAINLY DRY IN THE EURO...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR
SOUTH. BY THURSDAY COULD SEE ANOTHER COASTAL LOW BRING SOME RAIN
TO THE REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL BE RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL...BUT THE COOLEST DAYS WILL BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS
SUNDAY AROUND 50...AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S TO MAYBE 50.
OVERALL THOUGH...SHOULD SEE A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND MID-LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...LCL MVFR PSBL THIS AM IN
CEILINGS...OTW VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME
MVFR POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON. EXTENDED PERIOD OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS /PROBABLE IFR OR LOWER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY/ IN
RA AND DZ AND LOW CIGS. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR MON NIGHT AND VFR
TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEREFORE NO SCAS ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LOCALLY ONSHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...MAY NEED SCA FOR BOTH WINDS/SEAS MONDAY AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ONSHORE WIND WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE MAINE
COASTAL PLAIN. ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE WESTERN MAINE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE
FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SIMILAR RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT IS LIKELY FOR LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SCHWIBS
SHORT TERM...SCHWIBS
LONG TERM...CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 290442
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1242 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW PASSING
OFFSHORE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1238 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT SATELLITE TRENDS AND TO
INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO NEAR TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
CLOUD FORECAST WILL BE THE CHALLENGE OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. HIGH LEVEL AND
PERHAPS MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT FROM A
WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED OVER NORTHERN AREAS. THE
BATTLE ZONE WILL CONTINUE IN BETWEEN.

THE CLEAR VERSUS CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE THE FORECAST
OF OVERNIGHT LOWS. IT SHOULD BE MILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND COASTAL MAINE...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF QUICKLY...INTO
THE TEENS FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY LATE IN THE DAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN PARTICULARLY
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY. EXPECT ANOTHER SEA BREEZE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HOLDING THE COAST NEAR 50 DEGREES. IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON...SIMILAR TO
DROPPING INTO THE 40S IN MANY AREAS TODAY. WELL
INLAND...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB QUICKLY THROUGH THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SAT BEGINS WITH HIGH PRES GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO UPPER TROF AND
CENTRAL CONUS SYSTEM EJECTING EWD. THERE ISN/T MUCH ROOM TO
AMPLIFY WITH SFC HIGH PRES TO THE N...SO SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
ALONG AND S OF SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL SPREAD PRECIP THRU
AT LEAST SRN NH AFTER SUN EVENING. WITH H8 FREEZING LINE
STRADDLING THE FORECAST AREA...THIS WILL BE A COLD PRECIP...THOUGH
THIS TIME AROUND THE SNWFL LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO ONLY THE
HIGHEST PEAKS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING.
THAT BEING SAID...DRIER AIR MASS AND PRECIP FALLING INTO THE
COLUMN WILL WET BULB TEMPS DOWN COLDER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MOS PRODUCTS ARE LIKELY OVERPLAYING THE CLIMO
CARD...AND THUS BLENDED IN A LITTLE MORE 2 M TEMP GUIDANCE FROM
THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR MAX TEMPS SUN AND MON. WARMEST TEMPS SUN MAY
ACTUALLY BE CENTRAL ME WHERE PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP REMAINS A THREAT UNTIL TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA MON
NIGHT.

BEYOND THE EARLY WEEK THE TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS LOOKS TO
RELAX...ALBEIT BRIEFLY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A COUPLE NICE DAYS
MIDWEEK. AFTER THAT 28.06Z GEFS AND 28.00Z ECMWF EPS BOTH AGREE
THAT SEASONABLY STRONG TROFFING REBUILDS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. THE
TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WX WOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF GROUND FOG AS WELL WITH DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS.

LONG TERM...WEAK LOW PRES...COOL TEMPS...AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS FOR ALL
TERMINALS STARTING LATER SUN THRU MON. CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL BE
MORE LIKELY TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS. TUE INTO WED VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN...BUT THE LATE WEEK MAY SEE ANOTHER COASTAL SYSTEM BRING
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THEREFORE NO SCAS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LOCALLY ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...LOW PRES DEVELOPING NEAR NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF NE FLOW TO THE WATERS. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25
KTS...BUT MAINLY SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 OR MORE FT OUTSIDE OF THE
BAYS SUN INTO MON. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. ON
FRIDAY...AN ONSHORE WIND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290201
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1001 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL YIELD MILD AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. A RETURN TO
UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A DRYING TREND FOLLOWS
TUESDAY...HOWEVER MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK THIS EVENING.
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. THERE IS AN AREA OF LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHERN RHODE
ISLAND. EXPECT THESE TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ARE STILL 15-20 DEGREES. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

===========================================================================

TONIGHT...

WHERE CAN WE EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS AND WET WEATHER? CONFIDENCE IS
TOWARDS THE S/W WHERE THE MID-UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE RELAXES IN A
REGIME OF WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SOME MID-LEVEL FORCING PARENT
WITH STRETCHED VORTEX ENERGY. ANY OUTCOMES WOULD BE LIGHT MAINLY
OVER S/W CT N OF A W TO E FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE DELMARVA / NJ
COASTLINE. NOT A ROBUST EVENT. HARDLY A WASHOUT. THINKING NUISANCE.
SPRINKLES TO VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. FOCUS MAINLY SW CT. DRY ELSEWHERE
PER ACCOMPANYING AIRMASS AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH TO N.
NON-NAM CONSENSUS.

SO OVERALL A MOSTLY DRY AND QUIET NIGHT FOR MUCH OF S NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS FROM THE S/W. SUBSEQUENTLY MILDER
WITH LOWS AROUND THE UPPER 30S S BUT COOLER N UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER LESS CLOUDS. CAN NOT RULE OUT
RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND WITHIN INTERIOR
VALLEYS OF N MASSACHUSETTS WHICH COULD DRIVE LOWS DOWN TO THE UPPER
20S IF CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...

KEEPING IT DRY WITH CLOUDS LINGERING. POTENT MID LEVEL VORTEX OUT OF
THE S GREAT LAKES INVOKES WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
TOWARDS THE DELMARVA LATE. ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE MAINTAINS DRY AIR
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND WITH A COMPONENT OF
DOWN-SLOPING AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS. CONSIDERING
THE E ONSHORE FLOW AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS LINGERING MAY NUDGE
A FEW DEGREES LOWER ON HIGHS FORECAST AROUND THE UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...

RENEWED FOCUS OF LIGHT SHOWERY WEATHER S/W. VORTEX AND ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE LOW EMERGING OFF THE DELMARVA WITH PARENT JET ENERGY AND
DYNAMICS. CRUX OF FORCING / ISENTROPIC ASCENT SLIDES S OF THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REMAIN INFLUENTIAL N/E WITH SINKING AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS. AM CONFIDENT THAT SW CT COULD SEE LIGHT SHOWERS.
MAJORITY OF WET WEATHER WILL STAY S AND OFFSHORE. MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING WITH CLOUDS IN GREATER ABUNDANCE S/W.

SO OVERALL A DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF S NEW ENGLAND. A CLEARING
TREND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN AND SINKING AIR BY
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS TURNING
LIGHT WITH CLEARING...COULD SEE SOME PLACES RADIATE OUT DECENTLY AS
LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S. FOCUS MAINLY N/E ESPECIALLY WITH SANDY
SOILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND MILD SATURDAY W/HIGHS 60-65...50S ALONG THE COAST
* COOLER WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SUN AND MON
* DRYING TREND LIKELY TUE ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPS
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

SATURDAY ... WEAK MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA PROVIDES
SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THUS EXPECT LOTS
OF SUNSHINE. 850 TEMPS HOVERING AROUND 0C BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A DEEP BLYR WITH MIXING UP TO 800 MB OR SO. THEREFORE HIGHS
60-65 SEEM ACHIEVABLE INLAND WITH SEABREEZES ALONG THE COAST KEEPING
TEMPS IN THE 50S NEAR SHORE. OVERALL A REAL NICE DAY BY LATE APRIL
STANDARDS.

SUN INTO MON ... MODELS CONTINUE TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE
INTO NEW ENGLAND ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE 4
CORNERS REGION AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS FASTER TREND SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. SUNDAY MAY BEGIN DRY ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND
EASTERN MA WHERE ALL GUID INCLUDING THE NEW 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z UKMET
HAVE PRECIP JUST CROSSING THE NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BORDER AT 12Z
SUNDAY. HOWEVER WITH THE FAST CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT RAIN WILL LIKELY
OVERSPREAD THE AREA QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH STILL
TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC TIMING. AS PREVIOUS
FORECASTER MENTIONED WITH SURFACE WAVE TRACKING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
THE COMBINATION OF NE WINDS OFF THE CHILLY OCEAN COMBINED WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE U40S AND L50S...POSSIBLY
COOLER. THEREFORE HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WERE DERIVED FROM THE
COOLER 2 METER MODEL TEMPS VS. THE MILDER MOS TEMPS. COOLEST
READINGS LIKELY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL MA GIVEN DRY WEATHER
MAY LINGER FOR A TIME ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA EARLY SUNDAY.

TUE ... SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AFTER SUN/MON RAIN EVENT
WITH MEAN TROUGH AXIS MOVING OFFSHORE. GIVEN ENSEMBLE MEAN 850 TEMPS
OVER THE AREA ARE AROUND +2C/+3C AND SURFACE PRESSURES NEAR 1015
MB...FULL SUNSHINE COULD POTENTIALLY YIELD HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S
INLAND TUE. OF COURSE COOLER NEAR THE COAST GIVEN WEAK PGRAD
SUPPORTING POTENTIAL SEABREEZES.

WED INTO THU ... LOOKS UNSETTLED AS ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SUGGEST MEAN TROUGH RELOADS WITH NEW JET ENERGY OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW FEATURES A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE ROCKIES
AND A CORRESPONDING DOWNSTREAM NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER HUDSON
BAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT EAST COAST TROUGHING AND POTENTIAL UNSETTLED
WEATHER HERE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. COOLER TOO
GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIP AND NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 PM UPDATE ... NOT MUCH CHANGE TO 18Z AND 21Z TAFS. DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES
TONIGHT ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW RISK MVFR ACROSS S/W CT TONIGHT AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. E/SE FLOW TONIGHT BECOMING MORE E AND BREEZY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND BACKING N INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...VFR. SEA-BREEZE ASHORE. FLOW TO REMAIN E THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS ON
FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...VFR.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT ... HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS WITH MVFR
AND LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY ... DRYING TREND WITH VFR POSSIBLE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT.
THERE IS A LOW RISK OF RAIN SHOWERS ON THE S WATERS CLOSER TO
BLOCK / LONG ISLAND TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

E/SE FLOW BECOMING BREEZY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS DURING WHICH TIME ISOLATED 5 FOOT
SEAS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS S OF ISLANDS. WINDS BACK NE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SATURDAY ... QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TRANQUIL
SEAS.

SUNDAY INTO MON ... INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS LATE SUN INTO MON AS
LOW PRES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. A PERIOD OF SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON DEPENDING ON TRACK AND INTENSITY OF LOW PRES. ROUGH
SEAS GIVEN THE LONG ENE FETCH. VSBYS REDUCED AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND
PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY ... IMPROVING/DRYING TREND. LEFTOVER ENE SWELLS LIKELY FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KGYX 282332
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
732 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH ANTHER LOW PASSING OFFSHORE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
LOOKING FOR VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT....MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF QUICKLY WITH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ZONES DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPS/TD`S/SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS. NO OTHER
CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CLOUD FORECAST WILL BE THE CHALLENGE OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. HIGH LEVEL AND
PERHAPS MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT FROM A
WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED OVER NORTHERN AREAS. THE
BATTLE ZONE WILL CONTINUE IN BETWEEN.

THE CLEAR VERSUS CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE THE FORECAST
OF OVERNIGHT LOWS. IT SHOULD BE MILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND COASTAL MAINE...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF QUICKLY...INTO
THE TEENS FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY LATE IN THE DAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN PARTICULARLY
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY. EXPECT ANOTHER SEA BREEZE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HOLDING THE COAST NEAR 50 DEGREES. IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON...SIMILAR TO
DROPPING INTO THE 40S IN MANY AREAS TODAY. WELL
INLAND...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB QUICKLY THROUGH THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SAT BEGINS WITH HIGH PRES GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO UPPER TROF AND
CENTRAL CONUS SYSTEM EJECTING EWD. THERE ISN/T MUCH ROOM TO
AMPLIFY WITH SFC HIGH PRES TO THE N...SO SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
ALONG AND S OF SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL SPREAD PRECIP THRU
AT LEAST SRN NH AFTER SUN EVENING. WITH H8 FREEZING LINE
STRADDLING THE FORECAST AREA...THIS WILL BE A COLD PRECIP...THOUGH
THIS TIME AROUND THE SNWFL LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO ONLY THE
HIGHEST PEAKS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING.
THAT BEING SAID...DRIER AIR MASS AND PRECIP FALLING INTO THE
COLUMN WILL WET BULB TEMPS DOWN COLDER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MOS PRODUCTS ARE LIKELY OVERPLAYING THE CLIMO
CARD...AND THUS BLENDED IN A LITTLE MORE 2 M TEMP GUIDANCE FROM
THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR MAX TEMPS SUN AND MON. WARMEST TEMPS SUN MAY
ACTUALLY BE CENTRAL ME WHERE PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP REMAINS A THREAT UNTIL TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA MON
NIGHT.

BEYOND THE EARLY WEEK THE TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS LOOKS TO
RELAX...ALBEIT BRIEFLY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A COUPLE NICE DAYS
MIDWEEK. AFTER THAT 28.06Z GEFS AND 28.00Z ECMWF EPS BOTH AGREE
THAT SEASONABLY STRONG TROFFING REBUILDS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. THE
TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WX WOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF GROUND FOG AS WELL WITH DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS.

LONG TERM...WEAK LOW PRES...COOL TEMPS...AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS FOR ALL
TERMINALS STARTING LATER SUN THRU MON. CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL BE
MORE LIKELY TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS. TUE INTO WED VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN...BUT THE LATE WEEK MAY SEE ANOTHER COASTAL SYSTEM BRING
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THEREFORE NO SCAS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LOCALLY ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...LOW PRES DEVELOPING NEAR NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF NE FLOW TO THE WATERS. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25
KTS...BUT MAINLY SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 OR MORE FT OUTSIDE OF THE
BAYS SUN INTO MON. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. ON
FRIDAY...AN ONSHORE WIND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282304
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
704 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL TRACK SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING A PERIOD OR TWO OF LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES TO CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST
MASSACHUSETTS. OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE REGION REMAINS DRY
THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL YIELD MILD AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A DRYING
TREND FOLLOWS TUESDAY...HOWEVER MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG
OR NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

PREVIOUS FORECAST VERIFYING NICELY WITH DRY WEATHER LINGERING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. RAIN SHIELD ENTERING SOUTHWEST CT
CONTINUES TO ERODE THANKS TO 20+ DEW PT DEPRESSIONS. 15Z SREF...
18Z GFS AND 18Z NAM CONTINUE THREAT FOR A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. CURRENT FORECAST
CAPTURES THIS WELL SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE
OTHER THAN ADJUSTING HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW PTS TO BETTER REFLECT
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. MARINE LAYER HAS ADVANCED WELL INLAND WITH
ALL OF RI AND SOUTHEAST MA NOW ONLY IN THE U40S. MEANWHILE FIT
STILL HOLDING ONTO 60 DEGS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===========================================================================

CLOUDS THICKENING FROM THE S/W UP AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY-
SINKING AIR. THIS ACTIVITY PARENT WITH MID LEVEL VORTEX ENERGY
STRETCHING THROUGH THE CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS AND TO THE E
OF NEW ENGLAND. INTO THIS EVENING ONLY EXPECTING THICKENING CLOUDS
OVER S NEW ENGLAND AND REMAINING MOSTLY DRY. THERE IS THE PRESENCE
OF SOME MID LEVEL FORCING ALLOWING FOR LIFT OF UPSLOPING MOISTURE
RESULTING IN RADAR RETURNS AT HIGHER LEVELS OVER THE LOWER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY. WHILE AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR...CAN NOT RULE OUT IT
REACHING THE GROUND. WILL HINT CHANCE POPS OVER THE HARTFORD METRO
AND POINTS S/W.

TONIGHT...

WHERE CAN WE EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS AND WET WEATHER? CONFIDENCE IS
TOWARDS THE S/W WHERE THE MID-UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE RELAXES IN A
REGIME OF WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SOME MID-LEVEL FORCING PARENT
WITH STRETCHED VORTEX ENERGY. ANY OUTCOMES WOULD BE LIGHT MAINLY
OVER S/W CT N OF A W TO E FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE DELMARVA / NJ
COASTLINE. NOT A ROBUST EVENT. HARDLY A WASHOUT. THINKING NUISANCE.
SPRINKLES TO VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. FOCUS MAINLY SW CT. DRY ELSEWHERE
PER ACCOMPANYING AIRMASS AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH TO N.
NON-NAM CONSENSUS.

SO OVERALL A MOSTLY DRY AND QUIET NIGHT FOR MUCH OF S NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS FROM THE S/W. SUBSEQUENTLY MILDER
WITH LOWS AROUND THE UPPER 30S S BUT COOLER N UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER LESS CLOUDS. CAN NOT RULE OUT
RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND WITHIN INTERIOR
VALLEYS OF N MASSACHUSETTS WHICH COULD DRIVE LOWS DOWN TO THE UPPER
20S IF CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...

KEEPING IT DRY WITH CLOUDS LINGERING. POTENT MID LEVEL VORTEX OUT OF
THE S GREAT LAKES INVOKES WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
TOWARDS THE DELMARVA LATE. ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE MAINTAINS DRY AIR
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND WITH A COMPONENT OF
DOWN-SLOPING AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS. CONSIDERING
THE E ONSHORE FLOW AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS LINGERING MAY NUDGE
A FEW DEGREES LOWER ON HIGHS FORECAST AROUND THE UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...

RENEWED FOCUS OF LIGHT SHOWERY WEATHER S/W. VORTEX AND ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE LOW EMERGING OFF THE DELMARVA WITH PARENT JET ENERGY AND
DYNAMICS. CRUX OF FORCING / ISENTROPIC ASCENT SLIDES S OF THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REMAIN INFLUENTIAL N/E WITH SINKING AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS. AM CONFIDENT THAT SW CT COULD SEE LIGHT SHOWERS.
MAJORITY OF WET WEATHER WILL STAY S AND OFFSHORE. MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING WITH CLOUDS IN GREATER ABUNDANCE S/W.

SO OVERALL A DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF S NEW ENGLAND. A CLEARING
TREND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN AND SINKING AIR BY
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS TURNING
LIGHT WITH CLEARING...COULD SEE SOME PLACES RADIATE OUT DECENTLY AS
LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S. FOCUS MAINLY N/E ESPECIALLY WITH SANDY
SOILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND MILD SATURDAY W/HIGHS 60-65...50S ALONG THE COAST
* COOLER WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SUN AND MON
* DRYING TREND LIKELY TUE ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPS
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

SATURDAY ... WEAK MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA PROVIDES
SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THUS EXPECT LOTS
OF SUNSHINE. 850 TEMPS HOVERING AROUND 0C BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A DEEP BLYR WITH MIXING UP TO 800 MB OR SO. THEREFORE HIGHS
60-65 SEEM ACHIEVABLE INLAND WITH SEABREEZES ALONG THE COAST KEEPING
TEMPS IN THE 50S NEAR SHORE. OVERALL A REAL NICE DAY BY LATE APRIL
STANDARDS.

SUN INTO MON ... MODELS CONTINUE TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE
INTO NEW ENGLAND ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE 4
CORNERS REGION AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS FASTER TREND SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. SUNDAY MAY BEGIN DRY ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND
EASTERN MA WHERE ALL GUID INCLUDING THE NEW 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z UKMET
HAVE PRECIP JUST CROSSING THE NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BORDER AT 12Z
SUNDAY. HOWEVER WITH THE FAST CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT RAIN WILL LIKELY
OVERSPREAD THE AREA QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH STILL
TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC TIMING. AS PREVIOUS
FORECASTER MENTIONED WITH SURFACE WAVE TRACKING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
THE COMBINATION OF NE WINDS OFF THE CHILLY OCEAN COMBINED WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE U40S AND L50S...POSSIBLY
COOLER. THEREFORE HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WERE DERIVED FROM THE
COOLER 2 METER MODEL TEMPS VS. THE MILDER MOS TEMPS. COOLEST
READINGS LIKELY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL MA GIVEN DRY WEATHER
MAY LINGER FOR A TIME ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA EARLY SUNDAY.

TUE ... SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AFTER SUN/MON RAIN EVENT
WITH MEAN TROUGH AXIS MOVING OFFSHORE. GIVEN ENSEMBLE MEAN 850 TEMPS
OVER THE AREA ARE AROUND +2C/+3C AND SURFACE PRESSURES NEAR 1015
MB...FULL SUNSHINE COULD POTENTIALLY YIELD HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S
INLAND TUE. OF COURSE COOLER NEAR THE COAST GIVEN WEAK PGRAD
SUPPORTING POTENTIAL SEABREEZES.

WED INTO THU ... LOOKS UNSETTLED AS ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SUGGEST MEAN TROUGH RELOADS WITH NEW JET ENERGY OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW FEATURES A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE ROCKIES
AND A CORRESPONDING DOWNSTREAM NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER HUDSON
BAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT EAST COAST TROUGHING AND POTENTIAL UNSETTLED
WEATHER HERE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. COOLER TOO
GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIP AND NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 PM UPDATE ... NOT MUCH CHANGE TO 18Z AND 21Z TAFS. DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES
TONIGHT ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW RISK MVFR ACROSS S/W CT TONIGHT AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. E/SE FLOW TONIGHT BECOMING MORE E AND BREEZY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND BACKING N INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...VFR. SEA-BREEZE ASHORE. FLOW TO REMAIN E THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS ON
FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...VFR.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT ... HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS WITH MVFR
AND LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY ... DRYING TREND WITH VFR POSSIBLE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT.
THERE IS A LOW RISK OF RAIN SHOWERS ON THE S WATERS CLOSER TO
BLOCK / LONG ISLAND TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

E/SE FLOW BECOMING BREEZY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS DURING WHICH TIME ISOLATED 5 FOOT
SEAS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS S OF ISLANDS. WINDS BACK NE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SATURDAY ... QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TRANQUIL
SEAS.

SUNDAY INTO MON ... INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS LATE SUN INTO MON AS
LOW PRES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. A PERIOD OF SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON DEPENDING ON TRACK AND INTENSITY OF LOW PRES. ROUGH
SEAS GIVEN THE LONG ENE FETCH. VSBYS REDUCED AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND
PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY ... IMPROVING/DRYING TREND. LEFTOVER ENE SWELLS LIKELY FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282003
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
403 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL TRACK SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING A PERIOD OR TWO OF LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES TO CONNECTICUT AND SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE REGION REMAINS DRY THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL YIELD MILD AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. A RETURN TO
UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A DRYING TREND
FOLLOWS TUESDAY...HOWEVER MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG OR
NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

3 PM UPDATE...

CLOUDS THICKENING FROM THE S/W UP AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY-
SINKING AIR. THIS ACTIVITY PARENT WITH MID LEVEL VORTEX ENERGY
STRETCHING THROUGH THE CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS AND TO THE E
OF NEW ENGLAND. INTO THIS EVENING ONLY EXPECTING THICKENING CLOUDS
OVER S NEW ENGLAND AND REMAINING MOSTLY DRY. THERE IS THE PRESENCE
OF SOME MID LEVEL FORCING ALLOWING FOR LIFT OF UPSLOPING MOISTURE
RESULTING IN RADAR RETURNS AT HIGHER LEVELS OVER THE LOWER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY. WHILE AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR...CAN NOT RULE OUT IT
REACHING THE GROUND. WILL HINT CHANCE POPS OVER THE HARTFORD METRO
AND POINTS S/W.

TONIGHT...

WHERE CAN WE EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS AND WET WEATHER? CONFIDENCE IS
TOWARDS THE S/W WHERE THE MID-UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE RELAXES IN A
REGIME OF WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SOME MID-LEVEL FORCING PARENT
WITH STRETCHED VORTEX ENERGY. ANY OUTCOMES WOULD BE LIGHT MAINLY
OVER S/W CT N OF A W TO E FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE DELMARVA / NJ
COASTLINE. NOT A ROBUST EVENT. HARDLY A WASHOUT. THINKING NUISANCE.
SPRINKLES TO VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. FOCUS MAINLY SW CT. DRY ELSEWHERE
PER ACCOMPANYING AIRMASS AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH TO N.
NON-NAM CONSENSUS.

SO OVERALL A MOSTLY DRY AND QUIET NIGHT FOR MUCH OF S NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS FROM THE S/W. SUBSEQUENTLY MILDER
WITH LOWS AROUND THE UPPER 30S S BUT COOLER N UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER LESS CLOUDS. CAN NOT RULE OUT
RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND WITHIN INTERIOR
VALLEYS OF N MASSACHUSETTS WHICH COULD DRIVE LOWS DOWN TO THE UPPER
20S IF CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...

KEEPING IT DRY WITH CLOUDS LINGERING. POTENT MID LEVEL VORTEX OUT OF
THE S GREAT LAKES INVOKES WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
TOWARDS THE DELMARVA LATE. ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE MAINTAINS DRY AIR
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND WITH A COMPONENT OF
DOWN-SLOPING AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS. CONSIDERING
THE E ONSHORE FLOW AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS LINGERING MAY NUDGE
A FEW DEGREES LOWER ON HIGHS FORECAST AROUND THE UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...

RENEWED FOCUS OF LIGHT SHOWERY WEATHER S/W. VORTEX AND ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE LOW EMERGING OFF THE DELMARVA WITH PARENT JET ENERGY AND
DYNAMICS. CRUX OF FORCING / ISENTROPIC ASCENT SLIDES S OF THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REMAIN INFLUENTIAL N/E WITH SINKING AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS. AM CONFIDENT THAT SW CT COULD SEE LIGHT SHOWERS.
MAJORITY OF WET WEATHER WILL STAY S AND OFFSHORE. MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING WITH CLOUDS IN GREATER ABUNDANCE S/W.

SO OVERALL A DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF S NEW ENGLAND. A CLEARING
TREND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN AND SINKING AIR BY
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS TURNING
LIGHT WITH CLEARING...COULD SEE SOME PLACES RADIATE OUT DECENTLY AS
LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S. FOCUS MAINLY N/E ESPECIALLY WITH SANDY
SOILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND MILD SATURDAY W/HIGHS 60-65...50S ALONG THE COAST
* COOLER WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SUN AND MON
* DRYING TREND LIKELY TUE ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPS
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

SATURDAY ... WEAK MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA PROVIDES
SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THUS EXPECT LOTS
OF SUNSHINE. 850 TEMPS HOVERING AROUND 0C BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A DEEP BLYR WITH MIXING UP TO 800 MB OR SO. THEREFORE HIGHS
60-65 SEEM ACHIEVABLE INLAND WITH SEABREEZES ALONG THE COAST KEEPING
TEMPS IN THE 50S NEAR SHORE. OVERALL A REAL NICE DAY BY LATE APRIL
STANDARDS.

SUN INTO MON ... MODELS CONTINUE TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE
INTO NEW ENGLAND ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE 4
CORNERS REGION AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS FASTER TREND SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. SUNDAY MAY BEGIN DRY ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND
EASTERN MA WHERE ALL GUID INCLUDING THE NEW 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z UKMET
HAVE PRECIP JUST CROSSING THE NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BORDER AT 12Z
SUNDAY. HOWEVER WITH THE FAST CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT RAIN WILL LIKELY
OVERSPREAD THE AREA QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH STILL
TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC TIMING. AS PREVIOUS
FORECASTER MENTIONED WITH SURFACE WAVE TRACKING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
THE COMBINATION OF NE WINDS OFF THE CHILLY OCEAN COMBINED WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE U40S AND L50S...POSSIBLY
COOLER. THEREFORE HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WERE DERIVED FROM THE
COOLER 2 METER MODEL TEMPS VS. THE MILDER MOS TEMPS. COOLEST
READINGS LIKELY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL MA GIVEN DRY WEATHER
MAY LINGER FOR A TIME ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA EARLY SUNDAY.

TUE ... SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AFTER SUN/MON RAIN EVENT
WITH MEAN TROUGH AXIS MOVING OFFSHORE. GIVEN ENSEMBLE MEAN 850 TEMPS
OVER THE AREA ARE AROUND +2C/+3C AND SURFACE PRESSURES NEAR 1015
MB...FULL SUNSHINE COULD POTENTIALLY YIELD HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S
INLAND TUE. OF COURSE COOLER NEAR THE COAST GIVEN WEAK PGRAD
SUPPORTING POTENTIAL SEABREEZES.

WED INTO THU ... LOOKS UNSETTLED AS ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SUGGEST MEAN TROUGH RELOADS WITH NEW JET ENERGY OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW FEATURES A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE ROCKIES
AND A CORRESPONDING DOWNSTREAM NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER HUDSON
BAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT EAST COAST TROUGHING AND POTENTIAL UNSETTLED
WEATHER HERE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. COOLER TOO
GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIP AND NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW RISK MVFR ACROSS S/W CT TONIGHT AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. E/SE FLOW TONIGHT BECOMING MORE E AND BREEZY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND BACKING N INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...VFR. SEA-BREEZE ASHORE. FLOW TO REMAIN E THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS ON
FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...VFR.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT ... HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS WITH MVFR
AND LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY ... DRYING TREND WITH VFR POSSIBLE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT.
THERE IS A LOW RISK OF RAIN SHOWERS ON THE S WATERS CLOSER TO
BLOCK / LONG ISLAND TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

E/SE FLOW BECOMING BREEZY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS DURING WHICH TIME ISOLATED 5 FOOT
SEAS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS S OF ISLANDS. WINDS BACK NE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SATURDAY ... QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TRANQUIL
SEAS.

SUNDAY INTO MON ... INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS LATE SUN INTO MON AS
LOW PRES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. A PERIOD OF SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON DEPENDING ON TRACK AND INTENSITY OF LOW PRES. ROUGH
SEAS GIVEN THE LONG ENE FETCH. VSBYS REDUCED AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND
PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY ... IMPROVING/DRYING TREND. LEFTOVER ENE SWELLS LIKELY FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281938
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
338 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH ANTHER LOW PASSING OFFSHORE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUD FORECAST WILL BE THE CHALLENGE OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. HIGH LEVEL AND
PERHAPS MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT FROM A
WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED OVER NORTHERN AREAS. THE
BATTLE ZONE WILL CONTINUE IN BETWEEN.

THE CLEAR VERSUS CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE THE FORECAST
OF OVERNIGHT LOWS. IT SHOULD BE MILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND COASTAL MAINE...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF QUICKLY...INTO
THE TEENS FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY LATE IN THE DAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN PARTICULARLY
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY. EXPECT ANOTHER SEA BREEZE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HOLDING THE COAST NEAR 50 DEGREES. IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON...SIMILAR TO
DROPPING INTO THE 40S IN MANY AREAS TODAY. WELL
INLAND...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB QUICKLY THROUGH THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SAT BEGINS WITH HIGH PRES GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO UPPER TROF AND
CENTRAL CONUS SYSTEM EJECTING EWD. THERE ISN/T MUCH ROOM TO
AMPLIFY WITH SFC HIGH PRES TO THE N...SO SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
ALONG AND S OF SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL SPREAD PRECIP THRU
AT LEAST SRN NH AFTER SUN EVENING. WITH H8 FREEZING LINE
STRADDLING THE FORECAST AREA...THIS WILL BE A COLD PRECIP...THOUGH
THIS TIME AROUND THE SNWFL LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO ONLY THE
HIGHEST PEAKS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING.
THAT BEING SAID...DRIER AIR MASS AND PRECIP FALLING INTO THE
COLUMN WILL WET BULB TEMPS DOWN COLDER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MOS PRODUCTS ARE LIKELY OVERPLAYING THE CLIMO
CARD...AND THUS BLENDED IN A LITTLE MORE 2 M TEMP GUIDANCE FROM
THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR MAX TEMPS SUN AND MON. WARMEST TEMPS SUN MAY
ACTUALLY BE CENTRAL ME WHERE PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP REMAINS A THREAT UNTIL TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA MON
NIGHT.

BEYOND THE EARLY WEEK THE TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS LOOKS TO
RELAX...ALBEIT BRIEFLY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A COUPLE NICE DAYS
MIDWEEK. AFTER THAT 28.06Z GEFS AND 28.00Z ECMWF EPS BOTH AGREE
THAT SEASONABLY STRONG TROFFING REBUILDS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. THE
TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WX WOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF GROUND FOG AS WELL WITH DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS.

LONG TERM...WEAK LOW PRES...COOL TEMPS...AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS FOR ALL
TERMINALS STARTING LATER SUN THRU MON. CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL BE
MORE LIKELY TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS. TUE INTO WED VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN...BUT THE LATE WEEK MAY SEE ANOTHER COASTAL SYSTEM BRING
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THEREFORE NO SCAS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LOCALLY ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...LOW PRES DEVELOPING NEAR NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF NE FLOW TO THE WATERS. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25
KTS...BUT MAINLY SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 OR MORE FT OUTSIDE OF THE
BAYS SUN INTO MON. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. ON
FRIDAY...AN ONSHORE WIND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

JC/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281938
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
338 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH ANTHER LOW PASSING OFFSHORE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUD FORECAST WILL BE THE CHALLENGE OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. HIGH LEVEL AND
PERHAPS MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT FROM A
WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED OVER NORTHERN AREAS. THE
BATTLE ZONE WILL CONTINUE IN BETWEEN.

THE CLEAR VERSUS CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE THE FORECAST
OF OVERNIGHT LOWS. IT SHOULD BE MILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND COASTAL MAINE...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF QUICKLY...INTO
THE TEENS FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY LATE IN THE DAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN PARTICULARLY
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY. EXPECT ANOTHER SEA BREEZE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HOLDING THE COAST NEAR 50 DEGREES. IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON...SIMILAR TO
DROPPING INTO THE 40S IN MANY AREAS TODAY. WELL
INLAND...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB QUICKLY THROUGH THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SAT BEGINS WITH HIGH PRES GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO UPPER TROF AND
CENTRAL CONUS SYSTEM EJECTING EWD. THERE ISN/T MUCH ROOM TO
AMPLIFY WITH SFC HIGH PRES TO THE N...SO SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
ALONG AND S OF SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL SPREAD PRECIP THRU
AT LEAST SRN NH AFTER SUN EVENING. WITH H8 FREEZING LINE
STRADDLING THE FORECAST AREA...THIS WILL BE A COLD PRECIP...THOUGH
THIS TIME AROUND THE SNWFL LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO ONLY THE
HIGHEST PEAKS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING.
THAT BEING SAID...DRIER AIR MASS AND PRECIP FALLING INTO THE
COLUMN WILL WET BULB TEMPS DOWN COLDER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MOS PRODUCTS ARE LIKELY OVERPLAYING THE CLIMO
CARD...AND THUS BLENDED IN A LITTLE MORE 2 M TEMP GUIDANCE FROM
THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR MAX TEMPS SUN AND MON. WARMEST TEMPS SUN MAY
ACTUALLY BE CENTRAL ME WHERE PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP REMAINS A THREAT UNTIL TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA MON
NIGHT.

BEYOND THE EARLY WEEK THE TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS LOOKS TO
RELAX...ALBEIT BRIEFLY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A COUPLE NICE DAYS
MIDWEEK. AFTER THAT 28.06Z GEFS AND 28.00Z ECMWF EPS BOTH AGREE
THAT SEASONABLY STRONG TROFFING REBUILDS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. THE
TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WX WOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF GROUND FOG AS WELL WITH DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS.

LONG TERM...WEAK LOW PRES...COOL TEMPS...AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS FOR ALL
TERMINALS STARTING LATER SUN THRU MON. CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL BE
MORE LIKELY TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS. TUE INTO WED VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN...BUT THE LATE WEEK MAY SEE ANOTHER COASTAL SYSTEM BRING
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THEREFORE NO SCAS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LOCALLY ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...LOW PRES DEVELOPING NEAR NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF NE FLOW TO THE WATERS. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25
KTS...BUT MAINLY SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 OR MORE FT OUTSIDE OF THE
BAYS SUN INTO MON. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. ON
FRIDAY...AN ONSHORE WIND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

JC/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281903
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
303 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

 * UPDATES TO NEAR AND SHORT TERM FORECAST PORTIONS ONLY...

HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN CONTROL
THROUGH SATURDAY...YIELDING DRY WEATHER WITH MILD AFTERNOONS AND
CHILLY NIGHTS. A RETURN TO COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOLLOW TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

3 PM UPDATE...

CLOUDS THICKENING FROM THE S/W UP AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY-
SINKING AIR. THIS ACTIVITY PARENT WITH MID LEVEL VORTEX ENERGY
STRETCHING THROUGH THE CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS AND TO THE E
OF NEW ENGLAND. INTO THIS EVENING ONLY EXPECTING THICKENING CLOUDS
OVER S NEW ENGLAND AND REMAINING MOSTLY DRY. THERE IS THE PRESENCE
OF SOME MID LEVEL FORCING ALLOWING FOR LIFT OF UPSLOPING MOISTURE
RESULTING IN RADAR RETURNS AT HIGHER LEVELS OVER THE LOWER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY. WHILE AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR...CAN NOT RULE OUT IT
REACHING THE GROUND. WILL HINT CHANCE POPS OVER THE HARTFORD METRO
AND POINTS S/W.

TONIGHT...

WHERE CAN WE EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS AND WET WEATHER? CONFIDENCE IS
TOWARDS THE S/W WHERE THE MID-UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE RELAXES IN A
REGIME OF WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SOME MID-LEVEL FORCING PARENT
WITH STRETCHED VORTEX ENERGY. ANY OUTCOMES WOULD BE LIGHT MAINLY
OVER S/W CT N OF A W TO E FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE DELMARVA / NJ
COASTLINE. NOT A ROBUST EVENT. HARDLY A WASHOUT. THINKING NUISANCE.
SPRINKLES TO VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. FOCUS MAINLY SW CT. DRY ELSEWHERE
PER ACCOMPANYING AIRMASS AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH TO N.
NON-NAM CONSENSUS.

SO OVERALL A MOSTLY DRY AND QUIET NIGHT FOR MUCH OF S NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS FROM THE S/W. SUBSEQUENTLY MILDER
WITH LOWS AROUND THE UPPER 30S S BUT COOLER N UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER LESS CLOUDS. CAN NOT RULE OUT
RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND WITHIN INTERIOR
VALLEYS OF N MASSACHUSETTS WHICH COULD DRIVE LOWS DOWN TO THE UPPER
20S IF CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...

KEEPING IT DRY WITH CLOUDS LINGERING. POTENT MID LEVEL VORTEX OUT OF
THE S GREAT LAKES INVOKES WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
TOWARDS THE DELMARVA LATE. ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE MAINTAINS DRY AIR
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND WITH A COMPONENT OF
DOWN-SLOPING AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS. CONSIDERING
THE E ONSHORE FLOW AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS LINGERING MAY NUDGE
A FEW DEGREES LOWER ON HIGHS FORECAST AROUND THE UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...

RENEWED FOCUS OF LIGHT SHOWERY WEATHER S/W. VORTEX AND ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE LOW EMERGING OFF THE DELMARVA WITH PARENT JET ENERGY AND
DYNAMICS. CRUX OF FORCING / ISENTROPIC ASCENT SLIDES S OF THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REMAIN INFLUENTIAL N/E WITH SINKING AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS. AM CONFIDENT THAT SW CT COULD SEE LIGHT SHOWERS.
MAJORITY OF WET WEATHER WILL STAY S AND OFFSHORE. MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING WITH CLOUDS IN GREATER ABUNDANCE S/W.

SO OVERALL A DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF S NEW ENGLAND. A CLEARING
TREND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN AND SINKING AIR BY
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS TURNING
LIGHT WITH CLEARING...COULD SEE SOME PLACES RADIATE OUT DECENTLY AS
LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S. FOCUS MAINLY N/E ESPECIALLY WITH SANDY
SOILS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AWAY FROM THE COAST SAT
* COOLER WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER SUN/MON
* IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUE WITH MILDER TEMPS

OVERVIEW...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT OF GREAT
LAKES MID LEVEL TROF LATE IN THE WEEKEND WHICH EVENTUALLY AMPLIFIES
DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH.
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IS UNCERTAIN BUT
GENERAL THEME WILL BE A TREND TOWARD COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER SUN
INTO MON AS BOUNDARY SETS UP TO THE SOUTH WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS LOW PRES TRACKS S OF NEW ENG.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TUE BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN IF MILD AND DRY
WEATHER HANGS ON INTO WED AS ANOTHER LOW PRES MAY BE LURKING JUST
OFFSHORE.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND MOVING OFF NJ
COAST FRI NIGHT WILL TRIGGER AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOSTLY SW OF NEW ENG
BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THE NORTHERN EDGE COULD CLIP PORTIONS OF CT
INTO S RI FRI EVENING. THEN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS SAT WILL REACH INTO
THE 60S INTERIOR LOCATIONS BUT SEABREEZES WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 50S
NEAR THE COAST.

SUN INTO MON...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A COOLER AND WETTER SCENARIO WITH
OVERRUNNING OF SFC BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRES TRACKS TO THE
SOUTH. TIMING OF STEADIEST RAINFALL IS UNCERTAIN AND WHILE IT WON/T
BE RAINING ALL THE TIME...EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS SUN INTO MON AND
POPS WERE INCREASED ACCORDINGLY. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO LOWER TEMPS
FURTHER. COULD SEE DAYTIME TEMPS HOLDING IN THE 40S ACROSS INTERIOR.

TUE INTO WED...
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND MILDER TUE AS LOW PRES DEPARTS BUT STILL CANT
RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER AS MID LEVEL TROF REMAINS TO THE WEST WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WED. GFS IS
DRY AND MILD WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW BUT ECMWF HAS LOW PRES JUST
OFFSHORE WITH RAIN THREATENING AT LEAST THE COAST WITH COOL NE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW RISK MVFR ACROSS S/W CT TONIGHT AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. E/SE FLOW TONIGHT BECOMING MORE E AND BREEZY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND BACKING N INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...VFR. SEA-BREEZE ASHORE. FLOW TO REMAIN E THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS ON
FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...VFR.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
WITH MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT.
THERE IS A LOW RISK OF RAIN SHOWERS ON THE S WATERS CLOSER TO
BLOCK / LONG ISLAND TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

E/SE FLOW BECOMING BREEZY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS DURING WHICH TIME ISOLATED 5 FOOT
SEAS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS S OF ISLANDS. WINDS BACK NE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SATURDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA.

SUNDAY INTO MON...INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS LATE SUN INTO MON AS LOW
PRES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. A PERIOD OF SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT
INTO MON DEPENDING ON TRACK AND INTENSITY OF LOW PRES. VSBYS
REDUCED AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281515
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1115 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH ANTHER LOW PASSING OFFSHORE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST
SUITE OF MESOSCALE MODELS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. ELSEWHERE...VERY DRY AND
MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS
EXPECTED HOWEVER AS WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.

MODIFIED CLOUD FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY AS WELL AS THE
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS WITH THE LASTEST UPDATE. A SEA BREEZE
HAS ALREADY FORMED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINE AND THE
SEACOAST OF NEW HAMSPHIRE.

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE LATEST MESONET INTO NEAR
TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 1037 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED WEST OF HUDSON BAY.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER FAR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...GOES
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
TODAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH COOL DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID AND UPPER 40S FOR THE WESTERN MAINE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. AN IMPULSE
PASSING TO OUR SOUTH WILL SPREAD A FEW CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MAINE LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THEN TODAY GIVEN
AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WX: NONE.

THE COLD CLOSED 500MB LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE SHIFT NWD
AND FILL OVER THE WEEKEND. AS UP AND DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING WEAKEN A
BIT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME NEAR ZONAL THRU THE WEEKEND BEFORE
WE GET INTO MEAN TROUGHING OVER ERN NOAM EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGES BUILD TO OUR EAST AND WEST...AND THIS WILL BE AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD. THE GOOD NEWS IS THIS TROUGH IS NOT AS COLD AS
THE ONE WE ARE EXPERIENCING NOW...AND TEMPS OVER ALL WILL RUN NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY AS SFC RIDGE TRAVERSES NRN NEW
ENGLAND FROM W TO E WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL INLAND...AND A BIT
COOLER AS FLOW SHIFTS S-SE ON THE COAST. SUNDAY WE SEE A WAVE MOVE
TRY TO MOVE THRU WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AT 500 MB...AND MAY SEE
SOME WAA PRECIP MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY...AS SFC LOW
DEVELOPS WELL S OF NEW ENGLAND AND TAKES OVER. WILL SEE A LOT
CLOUDS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT PRECIP MAY STRUGGLE TO FALL INTO
DRY LOW LVL AIR MASS THRU A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY. ANOTHER 600 MB
WAVE APPROACHES MONDAY AND CROSSES THE REGION MON NIGHT...AND
THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER WEAK LOW THAT WILL PASS JUST S OF THE
CWA...AND HAS A BETTER CHC TO PRODUCE RAIN MON-MON NIGHT. COULD BE
SOME COLD AIR DAMMING AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND MAY MAKE FOR A CHILLY
DAY...BUT TEMPS ALOFT GENERALLY AROUND OR ABOVE ZERO...AND IF
THERE IT IS ANY SNOW IT WOULD BE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

LOOKS LIKE SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR TUE. FOR THE
MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...IT IS HARD TO FIND A LOT OF
AGREEMENT ON MUCH OF ANYTHING. THERE MAY BE A 500MB CLOSED LOW PASSING
SOMEWHERE TO OUR N...AND COULD PRODUCE SOME RAIN AT SOME POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...VFR.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME POSSIBLE
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SUN AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
EVENING....ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS...IN LOW CIGS AND SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...QUIET UNDER SURFACE RIDGE WITH WINDS
AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERION INTO SUNDAY
EVE. MAY SEE WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS COASTAL LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR 20
PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS AND WE WON`T HIT
METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL SEE AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY. GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY...AN ONSHORE WIND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 30
TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




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