000
FXUS61 KBOX 201431
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1031 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS IT HEADS INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THE
FRONT WILL DROP BACK SOUTH ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN BRIEFLY COOLER
WEATHER...BEFORE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL TURN
COOLER AND LESS HUMID NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BUT NUMEROUS
BREAKS ARE DEVELOPING FURTHER INLAND. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE
ENOUGH THINNING OF MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO SUPPORT PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE NEAR THE S COAST DUE
TO SW FLOW.

WARM FRONT STALLS JUST N OF FA TODAY WITH SW FLOW BRINING WARMER
AIR IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS INTO SNE. 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE TO
12-14C SO MAXES COULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AWAY FROM
THE S COAST...BUT 65 TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IMMEDIATE S COAST. IT
WILL BE SOMEWHAT HUMID AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER
60S.

POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS LIMITED BY LACK OF
INSTABILITY AS SB CAPES ONLY FORECAST TO BE AS HIGH AS 500
J/KG...AND MARGINAL 0-6KM SHEAR LESS THAN 30KT. THAT SAID WE DO
EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS INTERIOR. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS AWAY FROM S
COAST...ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE N OF THE MASS PIKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WARM FRONT STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT S/SW FLOW ACROSS REGION AND WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON SEEING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND
POSSIBLY DRIZZLE SPREAD INLAND FROM COAST. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
AREAS OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS BEST DYNAMICS
STAY TO OUR N AND W. RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS HOLDING IN
50S/LOWER 60S...WHICH IS CLOSER TO NAM MOS.

WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL FORCE FRONT
BACK SOUTHWARD TUE AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DROPPING FRONT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...BUT GFS SEEMS
TO OVERDO CONVECTION RIDING E ALONG BOUNDARY FROM GREAT LAKES. NAM
SEEMS MUCH MORE REASONABLE IN STABILIZING AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AS FLOW TURNS MORE E/SE AND FOCUSES ANY CONVECTION TO
OUR W/N WHERE IT BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE. WE ARE NOT THINKING WE
WILL SEE MUCH IN WAY OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY END OF
DAY.

SHOULD BE WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES TUE DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW...
FROM LOWER 60S ALONG E MA COASTLINE INCLUDING CAPE COD TO UPPER
70S ACROSS CT RIVER VALLEY. LEANED MORE TOWARD NAM MOS WHICH
CAPTURES THIS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

  * WARM AND MUGGY WED/THU THEN TURNING COOLER AND LESS HUMID FRI
  * SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AND THU
  * DRY BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND

GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE FLOW INCLUDING FRONTAL
POSITIONS FROM THE 12Z/19 GEFS AND ECENS. BOTH OF THESE ENSEMBLE
DATA SETS HAVE A BACKDOOR FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT THEN LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WED
AND THU WITH TRUE WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADING THE AREA. BOTH ENSEMBLES
OFFER +16C AIRMASS AT 850 MB AND +20C AT 925 MB OVER THE REGION
WED. THUS POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S BOTH DAYS IF
SUNSHINE DEVELOPS. IT WILL BE MUGGY AS WELL WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM NIGHTS /WED AND THU/ ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BOTH WED AND THU GIVEN
WARM SECTOR OVER THE AREA BOTH DAYS. ALSO MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON CONVECTION ALONG OR NEAR THE WARM FRONT TUE EVENING/NIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE
AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING BOTH DAYS. ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST INSTABILITY GREATER WED (MEAN CAPE ABOUT 1000J/KG) THAN THU.
HOWEVER APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL YIELD GREATER FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE THU ALONG WITH STRONGER JET DYNAMICS /0-6KM DEEP LAYER
SHEAR/...SO CONVECTION MAY BE MORE ORGANIZED/NUMEROUS THU THAN WED.
IN ADDITION GEFS SUGGEST INSTABILITY RIDGE ACROSS NY/PA AND NJ.
THEREFORE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS GREATEST RISK FOR STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE TSTMS WED AND THU. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND PWATS OF +1
TO +2 STD HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR SOMETIME LATE
THU OR FRI. 00Z GFS SLOWER WITH FROPA AS IT DEVELOPS A WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME RANGE PREFER NOT TO CHASE A SINGLE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION SO WILL FOLLOW PRES PATTERN FROM GEFS AND
ECENS. THIS SUGGEST FRI WILL BE OUR TRANSITION DAY FROM WARM AND
MUGGY TO A DRY...MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS FOR MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. IN FACT BY SAT BOTH GEFS AND ECENS HAVE A 1030MB HIGH
SETTLING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH CORE OF THIS ANOMALOUS COOL
AIRMASS /850 TEMPS 0C TO +2C/ ACROSS NORTHERN MA/SOUTHWEST NH...THEN
SLOWLY MODERATING BY MON. HENCE MILD DAYS BUT COOL NIGHTS. IN FACT
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST ACROSS NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST
NH WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE MU30S SAT AND SUN MORNING!

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

PATCHY MVFR CIGS IN THE INTERIOR WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY.
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS...IFR WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR...BUT IFR LIKELY TO PERSIST ALL DAY ACK. SCT
SHOWERS WILL REFORM ACROSS INTERIOR AFTER 18Z WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE.

SHOULD SEE RAPID DETERIORATION THIS EVENING TO IFR/LIFR 23Z-03Z
AS LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE RETURN IN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. WILL BE
HARDER FOR IFR TO ERODE TUE WITH PERSISTENT E/SE WIND...BUT EXPECT
ALL BUT CAPE/ISLANDS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR CIGS BY 18Z.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONFIDENT ON TIMING OF
IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING...BUT CIGS MAY ONLY LIFT TO 025 THROUGH
18Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY BE 2-3 HOURS TOO FAST ON
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VERY
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA/FOG. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS
POSSIBLE WED AND THU.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE ALONG WITH
A WIND SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND STALLS OVER CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WATERS BUT SEAS
SLOWLY BUILD IN SOUTHERLY SWELL...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS S COASTAL
WATERS WHERE SCA REMAINS POSTED. ALTHOUGH SW FLOW IS MODEST AT
BEST IT SHOULD STILL CREATE STEEP WAVES ON BUZZARDS BAY AND
VINEYARD SOUND DURING OUTGOING TIDE THIS AFTERNOON...SO MAINTAINED
SCA FOR THOSE AREAS AS WELL.

EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO TUE WITH PERSISTENT SW
FLOW...ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. FRONT DROPS BACK S
TUE AND SHIFTS WINDS TO E/SE...SO VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TUE
AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS WELL DUE TO DECAYING
SOUTHERLY SWELL.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT... BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH NE WINDS
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND SW WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS.
RAIN AND FOG WILL REDUCE VSBY. MODEST WIND AT BEST WITH MARGINAL
SWELL.

WED AND THU... WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WITH MODEST SSW
WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WATERS. SSW WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 20-25
KT FROM LATE WED INTO THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS THU WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY...COLD FRONT ALONG WITH WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO WNW SHOULD
COMMENCE. VSBY WILL IMPROVE WITH THE WIND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/JWD
NEAR TERM...KJC/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/JWD
MARINE...NOCERA/JWD

000
FXUS61 KGYX 201336
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
937 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
PRECEDED BY AN AREA OF SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL RETURN SOUTHWARD
AS A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM UPDATE...UPDATED THE POPS TO BETTERN REFLECT CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY. BASICALLY...HAVE A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
POPS FROM PWM-BML ON NORTH...AND MUCH LOWER POPS TO THE SOUTH. THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

625 AM UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS BASED ON RADAR
TREND AND MESONET AS PRECIPITATION AREA CONTINUES TO SLIDE NORTH AND
EAST WITH WARM FRONT.


PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WAS SITUATED ALONG AND TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PER LATEST
NWS 88D DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC. THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT
THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PRESS NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE`LL BRIEFLY SEE THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS BACK SOUTH LATE TODAY.
DAYTIME HEATING AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. A STRONG
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TODAY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 80F SOUTHERN INTERIOR TO THE 60S OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT STALLS BRIEFLY TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE FRONT BEGINS
TO RETURN NORTH WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SLOWLY NORTH ON
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 50S AND
60S...WITH COOLEST READINGS VICINITY OF COAST IN ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BOUNDARY REMAINS PARKED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK CREATING A
FOCUS FOR RAINY AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT ONLY TO SHIFT SOUTH THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
MEAN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AFFECT THE
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF
RAINFALL...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EUROPEAN MODEL.
REGARDLESS THERE IS A MODERATELY HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN AREAWIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING NEW ENGLAND A
RESPITE FROM PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN
PLACE ENSURING CLOUDY SKIES AND POSSIBLY RAIN FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK WARMER THAN THE REST OF THE
WEEK...HOWEVER AREAS IMPACTED WITH ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE COOLER THAN
AREAS TO THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MVFR TO IFR CONDS WILL SPREAD FROM
S-N TONIGHT IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUES
MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING BY AFTERNOON TO VFR CONDS AS THE WARM
FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST. SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER TONIGHT SO PATCHY
FOG EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP POSSIBLY LOWERING CONDS TO IFR. MVFR
TUESDAY IN SHOWERS WITH LCL IFR PSBL IN DRIZZLE AND FOG.


LONG TERM...SCATTERED PERIODS OF MVFR LIKELY ALL WEEK IN SHOWERS
AND FOG. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY BE LOWER AT TIMES. SCATTERED
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW
AHEAD OF WARM FRONT FOR ANZ150. OTHERWISE QUIET ON THE WATERS LATE
TODAY INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEAR THE WATERS. FOG AND
DRIZZLE WILL MAKE VISIBILITIES DROP AND BOATING DIFFICULT...
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH DAMP WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND GREEN UP...FIRE WEATHER DANGER SHOULD BE
LOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ150.

&&

$$
ES

000
FXUS61 KBOX 201101
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
701 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS IT HEADS INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THE
FRONT WILL DROP BACK SOUTH ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN BRIEFLY COOLER
WEATHER...BEFORE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL TURN
COOLER AND LESS HUMID NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...

WARM FRONT PROGRESSING NORTHWARD AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY AT THE LATEST. TEMPS ALREADY OFF TO A
MILD START WITH READINGS IN THE U50S AND L60S AT 7 AM. TEMPS WILL
SOAR THROUGHT THE 70S TO AROUND 80 THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE
SHORE. ONCE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA NOT MUCH OF A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION. IN ADDITION 0-6KM WIND FIELD DROPS BELOW 30 KT
THIS AFTERNOON. THUS ANY CONVECTION WOULD NOT BE ORGANIZED OR
WIDESPREAD. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THIS WELL SO NO MAJOR
CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
===================================================================
LAST OF SHOWERS WERE EXITING CAPE COD AND ISLANDS EARLY THIS
MORNING. CLOUDS REMAIN LOCKED IN WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE...
WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING. THEREAFTER MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW SOME DRYING THROUGH COLUMN AS WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
TO OUR N. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR BREAKS OF SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
WHERE MARINE LAYER SHOULD HOLD STRONG GIVEN SW FLOW.

POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS LIMITED BY LACK OF
INSTABILITY AS SB CAPES ONLY FORECAST TO BE AS HIGH AS 500
J/KG...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF LESS THAN 5C/KM...AND
MARGINAL 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30KT. THAT SAID WE DO EXPECT TO SEE AT
LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR.
MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS AWAY FROM S COAST...ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCE
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SW NH AND NW MA. HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING IN THOSE AREAS AFTER 18Z.

CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A WARMER AND SOMEWHAT MORE HUMID DAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM 60S ALONG S COAST TO 70S AND LOWER 80S
ELSEWHERE. USED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WARM FRONT STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT S/SW FLOW ACROSS REGION AND WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON SEEING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND
POSSIBLY DRIZZLE SPREAD INLAND FROM COAST. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
AREAS OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS BEST DYNAMICS
STAY TO OUR N AND W. RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS HOLDING IN
50S/LOWER 60S...WHICH IS CLOSER TO NAM MOS.

WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL FORCE FRONT
BACK SOUTHWARD TUE AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DROPPING FRONT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...BUT GFS SEEMS
TO OVERDO CONVECTION RIDING E ALONG BOUNDARY FROM GREAT LAKES. NAM
SEEMS MUCH MORE REASONABLE IN STABILIZING AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AS FLOW TURNS MORE E/SE AND FOCUSES ANY CONVECTION TO
OUR W/N WHERE IT BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE. WE ARE NOT THINKING WE
WILL SEE MUCH IN WAY OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY END OF
DAY.

SHOULD BE WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES TUE DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW...
FROM LOWER 60S ALONG E MA COASTLINE INCLUDING CAPE COD TO UPPER
70S ACROSS CT RIVER VALLEY. LEANED MORE TOWARD NAM MOS WHICH
CAPTURES THIS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

  * WARM AND MUGGY WED/THU THEN TURNING COOLER AND LESS HUMID FRI
  * SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AND THU
  * DRY BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND

GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE FLOW INCLUDING FRONTAL
POSITIONS FROM THE 12Z/19 GEFS AND ECENS. BOTH OF THESE ENSEMBLE
DATA SETS HAVE A BACKDOOR FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT THEN LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WED
AND THU WITH TRUE WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADING THE AREA. BOTH ENSEMBLES
OFFER +16C AIRMASS AT 850 MB AND +20C AT 925 MB OVER THE REGION
WED. THUS POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S BOTH DAYS IF
SUNSHINE DEVELOPS. IT WILL BE MUGGY AS WELL WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM NIGHTS /WED AND THU/ ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BOTH WED AND THU GIVEN
WARM SECTOR OVER THE AREA BOTH DAYS. ALSO MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON CONVECTION ALONG OR NEAR THE WARM FRONT TUE EVENING/NIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE
AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING BOTH DAYS. ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST INSTABILITY GREATER WED (MEAN CAPE ABOUT 1000J/KG) THAN THU.
HOWEVER APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL YIELD GREATER FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE THU ALONG WITH STRONGER JET DYNAMICS /0-6KM DEEP LAYER
SHEAR/...SO CONVECTION MAY BE MORE ORGANIZED/NUMEROUS THU THAN WED.
IN ADDITION GEFS SUGGEST INSTABILITY RIDGE ACROSS NY/PA AND NJ.
THEREFORE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS GREATEST RISK FOR STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE TSTMS WED AND THU. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND PWATS OF +1
TO +2 STD HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR SOMETIME LATE
THU OR FRI. 00Z GFS SLOWER WITH FROPA AS IT DEVELOPS A WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME RANGE PREFER NOT TO CHASE A SINGLE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION SO WILL FOLLOW PRES PATTERN FROM GEFS AND
ECENS. THIS SUGGEST FRI WILL BE OUR TRANSITION DAY FROM WARM AND
MUGGY TO A DRY...MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS FOR MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. IN FACT BY SAT BOTH GEFS AND ECENS HAVE A 1030MB HIGH
SETTLING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH CORE OF THIS ANOMALOUS COOL
AIRMASS /850 TEMPS 0C TO +2C/ ACROSS NORTHERN MA/SOUTHWEST NH...THEN
SLOWLY MODERATING BY MON. HENCE MILD DAYS BUT COOL NIGHTS. IN FACT
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST ACROSS NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST
NH WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE MU30S SAT AND SUN MORNING!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR THROUGH 12Z IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR EXPECTED 12Z-15Z AND EVENTUALLY VFR BY 18Z
EXCEPT AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WHERE IFR LIKELY TO PERSIST ALL
DAY. SCT SHOWERS WILL REFORM ACROSS INTERIOR AFTER 18Z WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE.

SHOULD SEE RAPID DETERIORATION THIS EVENING TO IFR/LIFR 23Z-03Z
AS LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE RETURN IN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. WILL BE
HARDER FOR IFR TO ERODE TUE WITH PERSISTENT E/SE WIND...BUT EXPECT
ALL BUT CAPE/ISLANDS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR CIGS BY 18Z.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONFIDENT ON TIMING OF
IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING...BUT CIGS MAY ONLY LIFT TO 025 THROUGH
18Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY BE 2-3 HOURS TOO FAST ON
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VERY
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA/FOG. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS
POSSIBLE WED AND THU.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE ALONG WITH
A WIND SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND STALLS OVER CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WATERS BUT SEAS
SLOWLY BUILD IN SOUTHERLY SWELL...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS S COASTAL
WATERS WHERE SCA REMAINS POSTED. ALTHOUGH SW FLOW IS MODEST AT
BEST IT SHOULD STILL CREATE STEEP WAVES ON BUZZARDS BAY AND
VINEYARD SOUND DURING OUTGOING TIDE THIS AFTERNOON...SO MAINTAINED
SCA FOR THOSE AREAS AS WELL.

EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO TUE WITH PERSISTENT SW
FLOW...ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. FRONT DROPS BACK S
TUE AND SHIFTS WINDS TO E/SE...SO VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TUE
AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS WELL DUE TO DECAYING
SOUTHERLY SWELL.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT... BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH NE WINDS
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND SW WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS.
RAIN AND FOG WILL REDUCE VSBY. MODEST WIND AT BEST WITH MARGINAL
SWELL.

WED AND THU... WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WITH MODEST SSW
WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WATERS. SSW WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 20-25
KT FROM LATE WED INTO THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS THU WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY...COLD FRONT ALONG WITH WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO WNW SHOULD
COMMENCE. VSBY WILL IMPROVE WITH THE WIND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ233>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/JWD
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/JWD
MARINE...NOCERA/JWD

000
FXUS61 KGYX 201025
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
625 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
PRECEDED BY AN AREA OF SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL RETURN SOUTHWARD
AS A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

625 AM...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS BASED ON RADAR
TREND AND MESONET AS PRECIPITATION AREA CONTINUES TO SLIDE NORTH
AND EAST WITH WARM FRONT.


PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WAS SITUATED ALONG AND TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PER LATEST
NWS 88D DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC. THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT
THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PRESS NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE`LL BRIEFLY SEE THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS BACK SOUTH LATE TODAY.
DAYTIME HEATING AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. A STRONG
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TODAY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 80F SOUTHERN INTERIOR TO THE 60S OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT STALLS BRIEFLY TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE FRONT BEGINS
TO RETURN NORTH WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SLOWLY NORTH ON
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 50S AND
60S...WITH COOLEST READINGS VICINITY OF COAST IN ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BOUNDARY REMAINS PARKED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK CREATING A
FOCUS FOR RAINY AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT ONLY TO SHIFT SOUTH THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
MEAN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AFFECT THE
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF
RAINFALL...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EUROPEAN MODEL.
REGARDLESS THERE IS A MODERATELY HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN AREAWIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING NEW ENGLAND A
RESPITE FROM PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN
PLACE ENSURING CLOUDY SKIES AND POSSIBLY RAIN FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK WARMER THAN THE REST OF THE
WEEK...HOWEVER AREAS IMPACTED WITH ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE COOLER THAN
AREAS TO THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MVFR TO IFR CONDS WILL SPREAD FROM
S-N TONIGHT IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUES
MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING BY AFTERNOON TO VFR CONDS AS THE WARM
FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST. SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER TONIGHT SO PATCHY
FOG EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP POSSIBLY LOWERING CONDS TO IFR. MVFR
TUESDAY IN SHOWERS WITH LCL IFR PSBL IN DRIZZLE AND FOG.


LONG TERM...SCATTERED PERIODS OF MVFR LIKELY ALL WEEK IN SHOWERS
AND FOG. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY BE LOWER AT TIMES. SCATTERED
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW
AHEAD OF WARM FRONT. OTHERWISE QUIET ON THE WATERS LATE TODAY INTO
TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEAR THE WATERS. FOG AND
DRIZZLE WILL MAKE VISIBILITIES DROP AND BOATING DIFFICULT...
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH DAMP WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND GREEN UP...FIRE WEATHER DANGER SHOULD BE
LOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
ES

000
FXUS61 KBOX 200739
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
339 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS IT HEADS INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THE
FRONT WILL DROP BACK SOUTH ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN BRIEFLY COOLER
WEATHER...BEFORE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL TURN
COOLER AND LESS HUMID NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
315 AM UPDATE...

LAST OF SHOWERS WERE EXITING CAPE COD AND ISLANDS EARLY THIS
MORNING. CLOUDS REMAIN LOCKED IN WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE...
WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING. THEREAFTER MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW SOME DRYING THROUGH COLUMN AS WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
TO OUR N. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR BREAKS OF SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
WHERE MARINE LAYER SHOULD HOLD STRONG GIVEN SW FLOW.

POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS LIMITED BY LACK OF
INSTABILITY AS SB CAPES ONLY FORECAST TO BE AS HIGH AS 500
J/KG...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF LESS THAN 5C/KM...AND
MARGINAL 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30KT. THAT SAID WE DO EXPECT TO SEE AT
LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR.
MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS AWAY FROM S COAST...ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCE
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SW NH AND NW MA. HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING IN THOSE AREAS AFTER 18Z.

CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A WARMER AND SOMEWHAT MORE HUMID DAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM 60S ALONG S COAST TO 70S AND LOWER 80S
ELSEWHERE. USED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WARM FRONT STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT S/SW FLOW ACROSS REGION AND WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON SEEING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND
POSSIBLY DRIZZLE SPREAD INLAND FROM COAST. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
AREAS OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS BEST DYNAMICS
STAY TO OUR N AND W. RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS HOLDING IN
50S/LOWER 60S...WHICH IS CLOSER TO NAM MOS.

WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL FORCE FRONT
BACK SOUTHWARD TUE AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DROPPING FRONT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...BUT GFS SEEMS
TO OVERDO CONVECTION RIDING E ALONG BOUNDARY FROM GREAT LAKES. NAM
SEEMS MUCH MORE REASONABLE IN STABILIZING AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AS FLOW TURNS MORE E/SE AND FOCUSES ANY CONVECTION TO
OUR W/N WHERE IT BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE. WE ARE NOT THINKING WE
WILL SEE MUCH IN WAY OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY END OF
DAY.

SHOULD BE WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES TUE DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW...
FROM LOWER 60S ALONG E MA COASTLINE INCLUDING CAPE COD TO UPPER
70S ACROSS CT RIVER VALLEY. LEANED MORE TOWARD NAM MOS WHICH
CAPTURES THIS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

  * WARM AND MUGGY WED/THU THEN TURNING COOLER AND LESS HUMID FRI
  * SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AND THU
  * DRY BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND

GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE FLOW INCLUDING FRONTAL
POSITIONS FROM THE 12Z/19 GEFS AND ECENS. BOTH OF THESE ENSEMBLE
DATA SETS HAVE A BACKDOOR FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT THEN LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WED
AND THU WITH TRUE WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADING THE AREA. BOTH ENSEMBLES
OFFER +16C AIRMASS AT 850 MB AND +20C AT 925 MB OVER THE REGION
WED. THUS POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S BOTH DAYS IF
SUNSHINE DEVELOPS. IT WILL BE MUGGY AS WELL WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM NIGHTS /WED AND THU/ ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BOTH WED AND THU GIVEN
WARM SECTOR OVER THE AREA BOTH DAYS. ALSO MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON CONVECTION ALONG OR NEAR THE WARM FRONT TUE EVENING/NIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE
AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING BOTH DAYS. ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST INSTABILITY GREATER WED (MEAN CAPE ABOUT 1000J/KG) THAN THU.
HOWEVER APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL YIELD GREATER FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE THU ALONG WITH STRONGER JET DYNAMICS /0-6KM DEEP LAYER
SHEAR/...SO CONVECTION MAY BE MORE ORGANIZED/NUMEROUS THU THAN WED.
IN ADDITION GEFS SUGGEST INSTABILITY RIDGE ACROSS NY/PA AND NJ.
THEREFORE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS GREATEST RISK FOR STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE TSTMS WED AND THU. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND PWATS OF +1
TO +2 STD HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR SOMETIME LATE
THU OR FRI. 00Z GFS SLOWER WITH FROPA AS IT DEVELOPS A WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME RANGE PREFER NOT TO CHASE A SINGLE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION SO WILL FOLLOW PRES PATTERN FROM GEFS AND
ECENS. THIS SUGGEST FRI WILL BE OUR TRANSITION DAY FROM WARM AND
MUGGY TO A DRY...MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS FOR MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. IN FACT BY SAT BOTH GEFS AND ECENS HAVE A 1030MB HIGH
SETTLING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH CORE OF THIS ANOMALOUS COOL
AIRMASS /850 TEMPS 0C TO +2C/ ACROSS NORTHERN MA/SOUTHWEST NH...THEN
SLOWLY MODERATING BY MON. HENCE MILD DAYS BUT COOL NIGHTS. IN FACT
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST ACROSS NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST
NH WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE MU30S SAT AND SUN MORNING!

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR THROUGH 12Z IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR EXPECTED 12Z-15Z AND EVENTUALLY VFR BY 18Z
EXCEPT AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WHERE IFR LIKELY TO PERSIST ALL
DAY. SCT SHOWERS WILL REFORM ACROSS INTERIOR AFTER 18Z WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE.

SHOULD SEE RAPID DETERIORATION THIS EVENING TO IFR/LIFR 23Z-03Z
AS LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE RETURN IN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. WILL BE
HARDER FOR IFR TO ERODE TUE WITH PERSISTENT E/SE WIND...BUT EXPECT
ALL BUT CAPE/ISLANDS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR CIGS BY 18Z.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONFIDENT ON TIMING OF
IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING...BUT CIGS MAY ONLY LIFT TO 025 THROUGH
18Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY BE 2-3 HOURS TOO FAST ON
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VERY
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA/FOG. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS
POSSIBLE WED AND THU.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE ALONG WITH
A WIND SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND STALLS OVER CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WATERS BUT SEAS
SLOWLY BUILD IN SOUTHERLY SWELL...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS S COASTAL
WATERS WHERE SCA REMAINS POSTED. ALTHOUGH SW FLOW IS MODEST AT
BEST IT SHOULD STILL CREATE STEEP WAVES ON BUZZARDS BAY AND
VINEYARD SOUND DURING OUTGOING TIDE THIS AFTERNOON...SO MAINTAINED
SCA FOR THOSE AREAS AS WELL.

EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO TUE WITH PERSISTENT SW
FLOW...ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. FRONT DROPS BACK S
TUE AND SHIFTS WINDS TO E/SE...SO VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TUE
AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS WELL DUE TO DECAYING
SOUTHERLY SWELL.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT... BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH NE WINDS
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND SW WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS.
RAIN AND FOG WILL REDUCE VSBY. MODEST WIND AT BEST WITH MARGINAL
SWELL.

WED AND THU... WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WITH MODEST SSW
WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WATERS. SSW WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 20-25
KT FROM LATE WED INTO THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS THU WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY...COLD FRONT ALONG WITH WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO WNW SHOULD
COMMENCE. VSBY WILL IMPROVE WITH THE WIND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ233>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/JWD
MARINE...NOCERA/JWD

000
FXUS61 KBOX 200717
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
317 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS IT HEADS INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THE
FRONT WILL DROP BACK SOUTH ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN BRIEFLY COOLER
WEATHER...BEFORE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL TURN
COOLER AND LESS HUMID NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
315 AM UPDATE...

LAST OF SHOWERS WERE EXITING CAPE COD AND ISLANDS EARLY THIS
MORNING. CLOUDS REMAIN LOCKED IN WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE...
WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING. THEREAFTER MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW SOME DRYING THROUGH COLUMN AS WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
TO OUR N. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR BREAKS OF SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
WHERE MARINE LAYER SHOULD HOLD STRONG GIVEN SW FLOW.

POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS LIMITED BY LACK OF
INSTABILITY AS SB CAPES ONLY FORECAST TO BE AS HIGH AS 500
J/KG...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF LESS THAN 5C/KM...AND
MARGINAL 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30KT. THAT SAID WE DO EXPECT TO SEE AT
LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR.
MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS AWAY FROM S COAST...ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCE
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SW NH AND NW MA. HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING IN THOSE AREAS AFTER 18Z.

CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A WARMER AND SOMEWHAT MORE HUMID DAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM 60S ALONG S COAST TO 70S AND LOWER 80S
ELSEWHERE. USED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WARM FRONT STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT S/SW FLOW ACROSS REGION AND WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON SEEING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND
POSSIBLY DRIZZLE SPREAD INLAND FROM COAST. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
AREAS OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS BEST DYNAMICS
STAY TO OUR N AND W. RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS HOLDING IN
50S/LOWER 60S...WHICH IS CLOSER TO NAM MOS.

WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL FORCE FRONT
BACK SOUTHWARD TUE AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DROPPING FRONT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...BUT GFS SEEMS
TO OVERDO CONVECTION RIDING E ALONG BOUNDARY FROM GREAT LAKES. NAM
SEEMS MUCH MORE REASONABLE IN STABILIZING AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AS FLOW TURNS MORE E/SE AND FOCUSES ANY CONVECTION TO
OUR W/N WHERE IT BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE. WE ARE NOT THINKING WE
WILL SEE MUCH IN WAY OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY END OF
DAY.

SHOULD BE WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES TUE DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW...
FROM LOWER 60S ALONG E MA COASTLINE INCLUDING CAPE COD TO UPPER
70S ACROSS CT RIVER VALLEY. LEANED MORE TOWARD NAM MOS WHICH
CAPTURES THIS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
  * SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WED-THU
  * COOLER...LESS HUMID FOR THE WEEKEND

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS...AS WELL AS THE NAM TUE. THE NAM IS QUICKER THAN
EITHER THE ECMWF OR GFS WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION TUES.  THE GFS THEN WHISKS ALONG AND BRINGS LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH QUEBEC MORE QUICKLY WED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOONER ON THU THAN THE ECMWF.  HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL IN LINE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.  GENERALLY EXPECTING A MORE UNSETTLED BUT WARMER PATTERN
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WITH QUIETER BUT COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE ARE SOME TIMING QUESTIONS HERE
REGARDING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
AND THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. NEITHER THE GFS NOR THE ECMWF HAVE THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION AND PATH OF THE
LOW PRESSURE COULD IMPACT THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AS WELL AS THE BEST
PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW
HAVE OPTED FOR HIGH END CHANCE POPS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
THUNDER PRETTY MUCH ACROSS THE BOARD. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
SUCH THAT EXPECT THUNDER TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD.

FRIDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING IT
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM AND THE ECMWF BRINGING IT
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY.  THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL HAVE A LARGE
IMPACT ON THE WEATHER AS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER...MORE HUMID
AIR CAN BE FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE CLEARING SKIES AND
COOLER...LESS HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  IF THIS
OCCURS DURING THE EARLY MORNING...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER
BUT THE AREA WILL SEE MORE SUN...WHILE IF IT DOESN/T OCCUR UNTIL
MIDDAY COULD SEE WARMER HIGHS BUT LESS SUN.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...EXPECT A PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR THROUGH 12Z IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR EXPECTED 12Z-15Z AND EVENTUALLY VFR BY 18Z
EXCEPT AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WHERE IFR LIKELY TO PERSIST ALL
DAY. SCT SHOWERS WILL REFORM ACROSS INTERIOR AFTER 18Z WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE.

SHOULD SEE RAPID DETERIORATION THIS EVENING TO IFR/LIFR 23Z-03Z
AS LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE RETURN IN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. WILL BE
HARDER FOR IFR TO ERODE TUE WITH PERSISTENT E/SE WIND...BUT EXPECT
ALL BUT CAPE/ISLANDS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR CIGS BY 18Z.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONFIDENT ON TIMING OF
IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING...BUT CIGS MAY ONLY LIFT TO 025 THROUGH
18Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY BE 2-3 HOURS TOO FAST ON
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA/FOG.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND STALLS OVER CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WATERS BUT SEAS
SLOWLY BUILD IN SOUTHERLY SWELL...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS S COASTAL
WATERS WHERE SCA REMAINS POSTED. ALTHOUGH SW FLOW IS MODEST AT
BEST IT SHOULD STILL CREATE STEEP WAVES ON BUZZARDS BAY AND
VINEYARD SOUND DURING OUTGOING TIDE THIS AFTERNOON...SO MAINTAINED
SCA FOR THOSE AREAS AS WELL.

EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO TUE WITH PERSISTENT SW
FLOW...ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. FRONT DROPS BACK S
TUE AND SHIFTS WINDS TO E/SE...SO VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TUE
AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS WELL DUE TO DECAYING
SOUTHERLY SWELL.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS. SCA WILL BE NECESSARY
FOR SEAS IF NOT WINDS AS WELL. VISIBILITY MAY BE LIMITED AT TIMES
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY...SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
MARITIMES AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.  SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS.  SCA WILL BE NECESSARY FOR SEAS IF NOT WINDS AS
WELL.  VISIBILITY MAY BE LIMITED AT TIMES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY...SEAS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.  WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 30KTS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/JWD
MARINE...NOCERA/JWD

000
FXUS61 KGYX 200647
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
247 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
PRECEDED BY AN AREA OF SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL RETURN SOUTHWARD
AS A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WAS SITUATED ALONG AND TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PER LATEST
NWS 88D DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC. THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT
THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PRESS NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE`LL BRIEFLY SEE THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS BACK SOUTH LATE TODAY.
DAYTIME HEATING AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. A STRONG
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TODAY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 80F SOUTHERN INTERIOR TO THE 60S OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT STALLS BRIEFLY TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE FRONT BEGINS
TO RETURN NORTH WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SLOWLY NORTH ON
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 50S AND
60S...WITH COOLEST READINGS VICINITY OF COAST IN ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BOUNDARY REMAINS PARKED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK CREATING A
FOCUS FOR RAINY AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT ONLY TO SHIFT SOUTH THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
MEAN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AFFECT THE
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF
RAINFALL...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EUROPEAN MODEL.
REGARDLESS THERE IS A MODERATELY HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN AREAWIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING NEW ENGLAND A
RESPITE FROM PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN
PLACE ENSURING CLOUDY SKIES AND POSSIBLY RAIN FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK WARMER THAN THE REST OF THE
WEEK...HOWEVER AREAS IMPACTED WITH ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE COOLER THAN
AREAS TO THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MVFR TO IFR CONDS WILL SPREAD FROM
S-N TONIGHT IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUES
MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING BY AFTERNOON TO VFR CONDS AS THE WARM
FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST. SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER TONIGHT SO PATCHY
FOG EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP POSSIBLY LOWERING CONDS TO IFR. MVFR
TUESDAY IN SHOWERS WITH LCL IFR PSBL IN DRIZZLE AND FOG.


LONG TERM...SCATTERED PERIODS OF MVFR LIKELY ALL WEEK IN SHOWERS
AND FOG. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY BE LOWER AT TIMES. SCATTERED
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW
AHEAD OF WARM FRONT. OTHERWISE QUIET ON THE WATERS LATE TODAY INTO
TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEAR THE WATERS. FOG AND
DRIZZLE WILL MAKE VISIBILITIES DROP AND BOATING DIFFICULT...
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH DAMP WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND GREEN UP...FIRE WEATHER DANGER SHOULD BE
LOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

ES/HANES

000
FXUS61 KBOX 200527
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
127 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS...AND THEN
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THRU SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TUE
THRU THU. A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR THE
COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...

BACK EDGE OF SHOWERS HAS JUST ABOUT REACHED COAST. HRRR/RAP
CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON RADAR TRENDS AND BRING SHOWERS
TO AN END BEFORE DAYBREAK /LAST ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS/.

OTHERWISE CLOUDS REMAIN LOCKED IN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. THIS WILL BE RULE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TOMORROW...
SFC WARM FRONT REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS NH AND CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ALLOWING SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO
THE WARM SECTOR. WITH THE ACTUAL BOUNDARY TO THE N...AFTER SOME
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS IS ALLOWED TO BURN OFF...SOME BREAKS OF
SUN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED SINCE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SFC DWPTS SHOULD REACH
+15-18C AND TEMPS INCREASING TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F IN
SPOTS ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN DOES SHINE THROUGH. WHILE FORCING
MECHANISMS ARE MINIMAL AT BEST...GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THE FRONT
MAKES A SLOW SLIDE TO THE S DURING THE DAY. WITH WARM-HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE...SFC LI VALUES DIP TO 0 TO -3 WITH ABOUT
500-1000 J/KG OF SB CAPE TO WORK WITH. THEREFORE...MAY SEE A
THREAT FOR SOME DAYTIME T-STORMS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE S
COAST...WHERE SLY MARINE FLOW AND EARLY DAY STRATUS WILL KEEP
TEMPS DOWN...INCREASING STABILITY. GIVEN THIS...HAVE SOME CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDER IN THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHEAR
IS MINIMAL GIVEN THE WEAK RIDGING FLOW ALOFT...AND NORMALIZED CAPE
IS QUITE LOW SUGGESTING SKINNY PROFILE...SO HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS AND WILL INCLUDE THAT WITH
WX FOR THIS UPDATE.

MON NIGHT...
WARM FRONT CONTINUES SLOW MIGRATION OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY HANG SOMEWHERE THROUGH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THEREFORE...WITH DIURNAL
HEATING EARLY...MAY SEE LINGERING -SHRA/TSTMS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS UNTIL THE COLUMN IS ABLE TO STABILIZE. WITH SOME DRIER AIR
FILTERING BEHIND THE FRONT TO THE N...MAY ACTUALLY SEE PRECIP COME
TO AN END DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH DWPT AIR
HANGING IN THE WARM SECTOR NEAR THE S COAST...A RETURN TO
FOG/STRATUS IS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT THAT OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER EVEN IF THE PRECIPITATION DOES COMPLETELY CEASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
  * WARM FRONT MOVES THRU SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE
  * SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUE-THU
  * COOLER...LESS HUMID FOR THE WEEKEND

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS...AS WELL AS THE NAM TUE. THE NAM IS QUICKER THAN
EITHER THE ECMWF OR GFS WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION TUES.  THE GFS THEN WHISKS ALONG AND BRINGS LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH QUEBEC MORE QUICKLY WED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOONER ON THU THAN THE ECMWF.  HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL IN LINE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.  GENERALLY EXPECTING A MORE UNSETTLED BUT WARMER PATTERN
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WITH QUIETER BUT COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO OCCUR WITH THE WARM FRONT.  THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY THE MODELS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.  WITH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA...COULD SEE SOME VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURES WITH LOWER TEMPS
NORTH OF THE FRONT AND WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE ARE SOME TIMING QUESTIONS HERE
REGARDING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND
THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. NEITHER THE GFS NOR THE ECMWF HAVE THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION AND PATH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE COULD IMPACT THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AS WELL AS THE BEST PLACE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.  FOR NOW HAVE OPTED
FOR HIGH END CHANCE POPS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE THUNDER PRETTY
MUCH ACROSS THE BOARD.  INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE SUCH THAT EXPECT
THUNDER TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD.

FRIDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING IT
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM AND THE ECMWF BRINGING IT
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY.  THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL HAVE A LARGE
IMPACT ON THE WEATHER AS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER...MORE HUMID
AIR CAN BE FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE CLEARING SKIES AND
COOLER...LESS HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  IF THIS
OCCURS DURING THE EARLY MORNING...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER
BUT THE AREA WILL SEE MORE SUN...WHILE IF IT DOESN/T OCCUR UNTIL
MIDDAY COULD SEE WARMER HIGHS BUT LESS SUN.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...EXPECT A PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR THROUGH 12Z IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR EXPECTED 12Z-15Z AND EVENTUALLY VFR BY 18Z
EXCEPT AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WHERE IFR LIKELY TO PERSIST ALL
DAY. SCT SHOWERS WILL REFORM ACROSS INTERIOR AFTER 18Z WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE.

SHOULD SEE RAPID DETERIORATION THIS EVENING TO IFR/LIFR 23Z-03Z
AS LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE RETURN IN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. WILL BE
HARDER FOR IFR TO ERODE TUE WITH PERSISTENT E/SE WIND...BUT EXPECT
ALL BUT CAPE/ISLANDS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR CIGS BY 18Z.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONFIDENT ON TIMING OF
IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING...BUT CIGS MAY ONLY LIFT TO 025 THROUGH
18Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY BE 2-3 HOURS TOO FAST ON
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA/FOG.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT.

A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH A MIX OF SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG /PARTICULARLY OVER THE SRN WATERS/ WHICH
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THE FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH LONG-FETCH AND PERSISTENT S FLOW...A
S-SW SWELL WILL BUILD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON S COASTAL
WATERS...REACHING 5-7 FT AT TIMES. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER UNTIL MON NIGHT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS
REMAINS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.  VISIBILITY MAY BE
LIMITED AT TIMES IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND FOG.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
WATERS.  SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS.  SCA WILL BE NECESSARY
FOR SEAS IF NOT WINDS AS WELL.  VISIBILITY MAY BE LIMITED AT TIMES
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY...SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
MARITIMES AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.  SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS.  SCA WILL BE NECESSARY FOR SEAS IF NOT WINDS AS
WELL.  VISIBILITY MAY BE LIMITED AT TIMES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY...SEAS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.  WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 30KTS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...DOODY/RLG

000
FXUS61 KGYX 200431
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1231 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT PRODUCING SHOWERS.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY.
THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVES IN. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND COULD BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WET
WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...

1225 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO ADJUST 1ST PERIOD GRIDS BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS MESONET.

PREV DISC...
1030 PM...NO SIGNIF FORECAST CHANGES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS. SHRA STILL ON TRACK TO ARRIVE FROM W TO E BETWEEN THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS AND LATE MON MORNING. WE SHOULD BE NEAR OR AT OUR MINS
LATE THIS EVE...AND THEN STEADY OR A DEGREE OR TWO RISE IN TEMPS
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT EXITS TO THE E IN THE MRNG BRINGING WITH
IT AN END TO THE SHWRS. THE AFTN SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY AND
MILD BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW AFTN INSTBLTY SHWRS AS A VERY WEAK
FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE N. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT MON NIGHT
AND WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE THAT WILL REMAIN...SO NO CLEARING
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN MAY DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS MON
NIGHT DUE TO LACK OF ANY LOW LEVEL VENTILATION. RFC QPF WAS USED
FOR MON WITH HIGHEST QPF AMTS OVER NRNMOST AREAS BUT STILL ALL
AREAS REMAIN UNDER .25 INCHES. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUID FOR
MAX/MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
STALLED FRONT WITH AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER. USED ECMWF FOR TIMING OF SYSTEMS. THIS RESULTS
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SOME CONVECTION. BEHIND THIS LOW A COOL NW
FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL DRY OUT MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH SOME UP
SLOPE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL AND MARINE
AREAS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN ONSHORE FLOW
ESTABLISHES ITSELF.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR TO IFR CONDS WILL SPREAD FROM S-N TONIGHT IN
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUES MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING BY AFTERNOON TO VFR CONDS AS THE WARM FRONT EXITS
TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER MON NIGHT SO PATCHY
FOG EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP PSBLY LOWERING CONDS TO IFR.

LONG TERM...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUE-THU. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A WEAK SFC AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE WATERS TONIGHT ALLOWING AN INCREASING SELY FLOW TO DVLP AND
SLOWLY BUILD THE SEAS, SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 5AM-3PM
MONDAY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT MONDAY, A WEAK
VARIABLE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING WINDS/SEAS TO DIMINISH LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.


LONG TERM...
WIND AND WAVES MAY REACH SCA LEVELS THU INTO FRI AS LOW PRESSURE
AND A COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE THREAT OF SHRA AND HIGHER RH VALUES ALONG WITH GREEN UP
CONTINUING TO OCCUR. EXPECT FIRE WX DANGER TO BE LOW THRU THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EDT
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES

000
FXUS61 KGYX 200306
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1106 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...PRODUCING SHOWERS.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY.
THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVES IN. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND COULD BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WET
WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM...NO SIGNIF FORECAST CHANGES FOR THE OVERNIGHT...JUST SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS. SHRA STILL ON
TRACK TO ARRIVE FROM W TO E BETWEEN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND LATE MON
MORNING. WE SHOULD BE NEAR OR AT OUR MINS LATE THIS EVE...AND THEN
STEADY OR A DEGREE OR TWO RISE IN TEMPS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

645 PM...INDIVIDUAL SHRA ALONG WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SE...AS BAND OF SHRA TRACKS SLOWLY WEST. MID-UPPR LVL RIDGING AHEAD
OF THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL MAKE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT SLOW...AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING SEVERAL HOURS OF
SHRA...OR OCCNL RAIN TO THE AREA AS IT MOVES THRU. MODELS SUGGEST
THAT MID-LVL TROUGH DIGS A BIT LATE TONIGHT...AND COULD BRING SOME
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS TO ERN AND NR ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SRN NH
SHOULD START TO SEE SHRA END BEFORE DAYBREAK...WITH PRECIP ENDING
FROM W TO E DURING THE FIRST PART OF MON MORNING. TWEAKED
SKY/TEMPS A BIT AS WELL. MINS...ESPECIALLY IN S AND W ZONES LOOK
TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUSLY...A S/WV MOVG ESEWD ALONG THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A WEAK SFC LOW AND ASSOC WARM FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE W TONIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND WIDESPREAD SHWRS CAN BE
EXPCTD TO SPREAD QUICKLY FM W-E OVERNIGHT. STAYED CLOSE TO RFCQPF
AMTS FOR OVERNIGHT WHICH WERE BTWN .25-.50 WITH THE HIEST AMTS
FURTHER N. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE MILD ON THE MOIST SSELY FLOW
AND SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DVLP. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
GUID FOR OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT EXITS TO THE E IN THE MRNG BRINGING WITH
IT AN END TO THE SHWRS. THE AFTN SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY AND
MILD BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW AFTN INSTBLTY SHWRS AS A VERY WEAK
FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE N. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT MON NIGHT
AND WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE THAT WILL REMAIN...SO NO CLEARING
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN MAY DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS MON
NIGHT DUE TO LACK OF ANY LOW LEVEL VENTILATION. RFC QPF WAS USED
FOR MON WITH HIGHEST QPF AMTS OVER NRNMOST AREAS BUT STILL ALL
AREAS REMAIN UNDER .25 INCHES. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUID FOR
MAX/MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
STALLED FRONT WITH AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER. USED ECMWF FOR TIMING OF SYSTEMS. THIS RESULTS
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SOME CONVECTION. BEHIND THIS LOW A COOL NW
FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL DRY OUT MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH SOME UP
SLOPE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL AND MARINE
AREAS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN ONSHORE FLOW
ESTABLISHES ITSELF.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR TO IFR CONDS WILL SPREAD FROM S-N TONIGHT IN
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUES MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING BY AFTERNOON TO VFR CONDS AS THE WARM FRONT EXITS
TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER MON NIGHT SO PATCHY
FOG EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP PSBLY LOWERING CONDS TO IFR.

LONG TERM...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUE-THU. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A WEAK SFC AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE WATERS TONIGHT ALLOWING AN INCREASING SELY FLOW TO DVLP AND
SLOWLY BUILD THE SEAS, SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 5AM-3PM
MONDAY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT MONDAY, A WEAK
VARIABLE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING WINDS/SEAS TO DIMINISH LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.


LONG TERM...
WIND AND WAVES MAY REACH SCA LEVELS THU INTO FRI AS LOW PRESSURE
AND A COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE THREAT OF SHRA AND HIGHER RH VALUES ALONG WITH GREEN UP
CONTINUING TO OCCUR. EXPECT FIRE WX DANGER TO BE LOW THRU THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...

000
FXUS61 KGYX 200234
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1034 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...PRODUCING SHOWERS.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY.
THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVES IN. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND COULD BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WET
WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM...NO SIGNIF FORECAST CHANGES FOR THE OVERNIGHT...JUST SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS. SHRA STILL ON
TRACK TO EN FROM W TO E BETWEEN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND LATE MON
MORNING. WE SHOULD BE NEAR OR AT OUR MINS LATE THIS EVE...AND THEN
STEADY OR A DEGREE OR TWO RISE IN TEMPS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

645 PM...INDIVIDUAL SHRA ALONG WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SE...AS BAD OF SHRA TRACKS SLOWLY WEST. MID-UPPR LVL RIDGING AHEAD
OF THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL MAKE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT SLOW...AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING SEVERAL HOURS OF
SHRA...OR OCCNL RAIN TO THE AREA AS IT MOVES THRU. MODELS SUGGEST
THAT MID-LVL TROUGH DIGS A BIT LATE TONIGHT...AND COULD BRING SOME
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS TO ERN AND NR ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SRN NH
SHOULD START TO SEE SHRA END BEFORE DAYBREAK...WITH PRECIP ENDING
FROM W TO E DURING THE FIRST PART OF MON MORNING. TWEAKED
SKY/TEMPS A BIT AS WELL. MINS...ESPECIALLY IN S AND W ZONES LOOK
TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUSLY...A S/WV MOVG ESEWD ALONG THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A WEAK SFC LOW AND ASSOC WARM FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE W TONIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND WIDESPREAD SHWRS CAN BE
EXPCTD TO SPREAD QUICKLY FM W-E OVERNIGHT. STAYED CLOSE TO RFCQPF
AMTS FOR OVERNIGHT WHICH WERE BTWN .25-.50 WITH THE HIEST AMTS
FURTHER N. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE MILD ON THE MOIST SSELY FLOW
AND SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DVLP. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
GUID FOR OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT EXITS TO THE E IN THE MRNG BRINGING WITH
IT AN END TO THE SHWRS. THE AFTN SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY AND
MILD BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW AFTN INSTBLTY SHWRS AS A VERY WEAK
FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE N. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT MON NIGHT
AND WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE THAT WILL REMAIN...SO NO CLEARING
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN MAY DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS MON
NIGHT DUE TO LACK OF ANY LOW LEVEL VENTILATION. RFC QPF WAS USED
FOR MON WITH HIGHEST QPF AMTS OVER NRNMOST AREAS BUT STILL ALL
AREAS REMAIN UNDER .25 INCHES. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUID FOR
MAX/MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STALLED
FRONT WITH AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER. USED ECMWF FOR TIMING OF SYSTEMS. THIS RESULTS IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SOME CONVECTION. BEHIND THIS LOW A COOL NW
FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL DRY OUT MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH SOME
UP SLOPE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL AND MARINE
AREAS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN ONSHORE FLOW
ESTABLISHES ITSELF.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR TO IFR CONDS WILL SPREAD FROM S-N TONIGHT IN
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUES MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING BY AFTERNOON TO VFR CONDS AS THE WARM FRONT EXITS
TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER MON NIGHT SO PATCHY
FOG EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP PSBLY LOWERING CONDS TO IFR.

LONG TERM...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUE-THU. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A WEAK SFC AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE WATERS TONIGHT ALLOWING AN INCREASING SELY FLOW TO DVLP AND
SLOWLY BUILD THE SEAS, SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 5AM-3PM
MONDAY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT MONDAY, A WEAK
VARIABLE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING WINDS/SEAS TO DIMINISH LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.


LONG TERM...
WIND AND WAVES MAY REACH SCA LEVELS THU INTO FRI AS LOW PRESSURE
AND A COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE THREAT OF SHRA AND HIGHER RH VALUES ALONG WITH GREEN UP
CONTINUING TO OCCUR EXPECT FIRE WX DANGER TO BE LOW THRU THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...

000
FXUS61 KBOX 200113
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
913 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS...AND THEN
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THRU SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TUE
THRU THU. A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR THE
COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
915 PM UPDATE...

BACK EDGE OF SHOWERS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD COAST. HRRR/RAP
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON RADAR TRENDS AND BRING SHOWERS TO AN END
OVER MOST OF REGION BY MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT A FEW HOURS LATER AROUND
CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. SO FAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT
/UNDER 0.25 INCH/ AND EXPECT THAT TO BE RULE TONIGHT.

BEHIND AREA OF SHOWERS...CLOUDS REMAIN LOCKED IN OVERNIGHT AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. EXPECT PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP AS
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
REGION.

FORECAST LOWS IN 50S ARE ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
SFC WARM FRONT REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS NH AND CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ALLOWING SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO
THE WARM SECTOR. WITH THE ACTUAL BOUNDARY TO THE N...AFTER SOME
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS IS ALLOWED TO BURN OFF...SOME BREAKS OF
SUN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED SINCE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SFC DWPTS SHOULD REACH
+15-18C AND TEMPS INCREASING TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F IN
SPOTS ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN DOES SHINE THROUGH. WHILE FORCING
MECHANISMS ARE MINIMAL AT BEST...GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THE FRONT
MAKES A SLOW SLIDE TO THE S DURING THE DAY. WITH WARM-HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE...SFC LI VALUES DIP TO 0 TO -3 WITH ABOUT
500-1000 J/KG OF SB CAPE TO WORK WITH. THEREFORE...MAY SEE A
THREAT FOR SOME DAYTIME T-STORMS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE S
COAST...WHERE SLY MARINE FLOW AND EARLY DAY STRATUS WILL KEEP
TEMPS DOWN...INCREASING STABILITY. GIVEN THIS...HAVE SOME CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDER IN THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHEAR
IS MINIMAL GIVEN THE WEAK RIDGING FLOW ALOFT...AND NORMALIZED CAPE
IS QUITE LOW SUGGESTING SKINNY PROFILE...SO HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS AND WILL INCLUDE THAT WITH
WX FOR THIS UPDATE.

MON NIGHT...
WARM FRONT CONTINUES SLOW MIGRATION OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY HANG SOMEWHERE THROUGH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THEREFORE...WITH DIURNAL
HEATING EARLY...MAY SEE LINGERING -SHRA/TSTMS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS UNTIL THE COLUMN IS ABLE TO STABILIZE. WITH SOME DRIER AIR
FILTERING BEHIND THE FRONT TO THE N...MAY ACTUALLY SEE PRECIP COME
TO AN END DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH DWPT AIR
HANGING IN THE WARM SECTOR NEAR THE S COAST...A RETURN TO
FOG/STRATUS IS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT THAT OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER EVEN IF THE PRECIPITATION DOES COMPLETELY CEASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
  * WARM FRONT MOVES THRU SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE
  * SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUE-THU
  * COOLER...LESS HUMID FOR THE WEEKEND

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS...AS WELL AS THE NAM TUE. THE NAM IS QUICKER THAN
EITHER THE ECMWF OR GFS WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION TUES.  THE GFS THEN WHISKS ALONG AND BRINGS LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH QUEBEC MORE QUICKLY WED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOONER ON THU THAN THE ECMWF.  HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL IN LINE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.  GENERALLY EXPECTING A MORE UNSETTLED BUT WARMER PATTERN
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WITH QUIETER BUT COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO OCCUR WITH THE WARM FRONT.  THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY THE MODELS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.  WITH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA...COULD SEE SOME VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURES WITH LOWER TEMPS
NORTH OF THE FRONT AND WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE ARE SOME TIMING QUESTIONS HERE
REGARDING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND
THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. NEITHER THE GFS NOR THE ECMWF HAVE THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION AND PATH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE COULD IMPACT THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AS WELL AS THE BEST PLACE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.  FOR NOW HAVE OPTED
FOR HIGH END CHANCE POPS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE THUNDER PRETTY
MUCH ACROSS THE BOARD.  INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE SUCH THAT EXPECT
THUNDER TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD.

FRIDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING IT
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM AND THE ECMWF BRINGING IT
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY.  THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL HAVE A LARGE
IMPACT ON THE WEATHER AS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER...MORE HUMID
AIR CAN BE FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE CLEARING SKIES AND
COOLER...LESS HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  IF THIS
OCCURS DURING THE EARLY MORNING...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER
BUT THE AREA WILL SEE MORE SUN...WHILE IF IT DOESN/T OCCUR UNTIL
MIDDAY COULD SEE WARMER HIGHS BUT LESS SUN.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...EXPECT A PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF MVFR/IFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AND MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES. MAY SEE SOME MVFR/IFR FOG AS THE -SHRA MOVE OUT
AFTER 06Z AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
POSSIBLE EARLY MON...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE S COASTAL TERMINALS.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TAF TRENDS...BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. EXPECT MVFR IN -SHRA AND FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT MON MORNING. LOW
PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER TONIGHT AND AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IFR WILL LIKELY
DOMINATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
FOLLOWING SOME -SHRA/FOG OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR WILL
BE DURING THE MORNING MON. LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED T-STORM
OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VERY
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA/FOG.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT.

A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH A MIX OF SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG /PARTICULARLY OVER THE SRN WATERS/ WHICH
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THE FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH LONG-FETCH AND PERSISTENT S FLOW...A
S-SW SWELL WILL BUILD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON S COASTAL
WATERS...REACHING 5-7 FT AT TIMES. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER UNTIL MON NIGHT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS
REMAINS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.  VISIBILITY MAY BE
LIMITED AT TIMES IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND FOG.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
WATERS.  SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS.  SCA WILL BE NECESSARY
FOR SEAS IF NOT WINDS AS WELL.  VISIBILITY MAY BE LIMITED AT TIMES
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY...SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
MARITIMES AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.  SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS.  SCA WILL BE NECESSARY FOR SEAS IF NOT WINDS AS
WELL.  VISIBILITY MAY BE LIMITED AT TIMES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY...SEAS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.  WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 30KTS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 8
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...DOODY/RLG

000
FXUS61 KBOX 192331
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
731 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS...AND THEN
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THRU SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TUE
THRU THU. A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR THE
COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
7 AM UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. SEEING SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG BEHIND THE MAIN LINE OF
SHOWERS BUT MOST OF THE RAIN HAS COME TO AN END WEST OF AN ORANGE
TO WILLIMANTIC LINE. MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE POPS TO REFLECT
THIS AS WELL AS SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES.

THE SFC WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE -SHRA IS CURRENTLY
SLIDING IN FROM THE W...SO EXPECT THAT THE THREAT FOR -SHRA WILL
LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THIS FRONT MAKES ITS SLOW
PASSAGE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF WITH THIS BUT MOST
LOCATIONS HAVE DAMP GROUND BY DAYBREAK. THE ADDED MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN /SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1.0-1.5 INCHES PWAT BY 12Z/ WILL LEAD TO
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND FOG AFTER THE -SHRA COME TO AN END
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG...BUT A FEW SPOTS MAY DIP TO NEAR 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

THE WARM FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF NH BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...SO SUSPECT THAT MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL
BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BY 12Z. ALSO...WITH SOME WEAK MID LVL
RIDGING WITHIN THIS WARM SECTOR...COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME BREAKS
OF EARLY MORNING SUN ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE S AND E COASTS WHERE
STRATUS LINGERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
SFC WARM FRONT REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS NH AND CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ALLOWING SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO
THE WARM SECTOR. WITH THE ACTUAL BOUNDARY TO THE N...AFTER SOME
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS IS ALLOWED TO BURN OFF...SOME BREAKS OF
SUN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED SINCE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SFC DWPTS SHOULD REACH
+15-18C AND TEMPS INCREASING TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F IN
SPOTS ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN DOES SHINE THROUGH. WHILE FORCING
MECHANISMS ARE MINIMAL AT BEST...GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THE FRONT
MAKES A SLOW SLIDE TO THE S DURING THE DAY. WITH WARM-HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE...SFC LI VALUES DIP TO 0 TO -3 WITH ABOUT
500-1000 J/KG OF SB CAPE TO WORK WITH. THEREFORE...MAY SEE A
THREAT FOR SOME DAYTIME T-STORMS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE S
COAST...WHERE SLY MARINE FLOW AND EARLY DAY STRATUS WILL KEEP
TEMPS DOWN...INCREASING STABILITY. GIVEN THIS...HAVE SOME CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDER IN THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHEAR
IS MINIMAL GIVEN THE WEAK RIDGING FLOW ALOFT...AND NORMALIZED CAPE
IS QUITE LOW SUGGESTING SKINNY PROFILE...SO HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS AND WILL INCLUDE THAT WITH
WX FOR THIS UPDATE.

MON NIGHT...
WARM FRONT CONTINUES SLOW MIGRATION OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY HANG SOMEWHERE THROUGH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THEREFORE...WITH DIURNAL
HEATING EARLY...MAY SEE LINGERING -SHRA/TSTMS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS UNTIL THE COLUMN IS ABLE TO STABILIZE. WITH SOME DRIER AIR
FILTERING BEHIND THE FRONT TO THE N...MAY ACTUALLY SEE PRECIP COME
TO AN END DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH DWPT AIR
HANGING IN THE WARM SECTOR NEAR THE S COAST...A RETURN TO
FOG/STRATUS IS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT THAT OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER EVEN IF THE PRECIPITATION DOES COMPLETELY CEASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
  * WARM FRONT MOVES THRU SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE
  * SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUE-THU
  * COOLER...LESS HUMID FOR THE WEEKEND

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS...AS WELL AS THE NAM TUE. THE NAM IS QUICKER THAN
EITHER THE ECMWF OR GFS WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION TUES.  THE GFS THEN WHISKS ALONG AND BRINGS LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH QUEBEC MORE QUICKLY WED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOONER ON THU THAN THE ECMWF.  HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL IN LINE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.  GENERALLY EXPECTING A MORE UNSETTLED BUT WARMER PATTERN
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WITH QUIETER BUT COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO OCCUR WITH THE WARM FRONT.  THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY THE MODELS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.  WITH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA...COULD SEE SOME VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURES WITH LOWER TEMPS
NORTH OF THE FRONT AND WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE ARE SOME TIMING QUESTIONS HERE
REGARDING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND
THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. NEITHER THE GFS NOR THE ECMWF HAVE THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION AND PATH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE COULD IMPACT THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AS WELL AS THE BEST PLACE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.  FOR NOW HAVE OPTED
FOR HIGH END CHANCE POPS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE THUNDER PRETTY
MUCH ACROSS THE BOARD.  INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE SUCH THAT EXPECT
THUNDER TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD.

FRIDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING IT
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM AND THE ECMWF BRINGING IT
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY.  THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL HAVE A LARGE
IMPACT ON THE WEATHER AS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER...MORE HUMID
AIR CAN BE FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE CLEARING SKIES AND
COOLER...LESS HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  IF THIS
OCCURS DURING THE EARLY MORNING...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER
BUT THE AREA WILL SEE MORE SUN...WHILE IF IT DOESN/T OCCUR UNTIL
MIDDAY COULD SEE WARMER HIGHS BUT LESS SUN.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...EXPECT A PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF MVFR/IFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AND MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES. MAY SEE SOME MVFR/IFR FOG AS THE -SHRA MOVE OUT
AFTER 06Z AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
POSSIBLE EARLY MON...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE S COASTAL TERMINALS.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TAF TRENDS...BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. EXPECT MVFR IN -SHRA AND FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT MON MORNING. LOW
PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER TONIGHT AND AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IFR WILL LIKELY
DOMINATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
FOLLOWING SOME -SHRA/FOG OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR WILL
BE DURING THE MORNING MON. LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED T-STORM
OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VERY
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA/FOG.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT.

A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH A MIX OF SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG /PARTICULARLY OVER THE SRN WATERS/ WHICH
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THE FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH LONG-FETCH AND PERSISTENT S FLOW...A
S-SW SWELL WILL BUILD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON S COASTAL
WATERS...REACHING 5-7 FT AT TIMES. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER UNTIL MON NIGHT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS
REMAINS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.  VISIBILITY MAY BE
LIMITED AT TIMES IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND FOG.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
WATERS.  SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS.  SCA WILL BE NECESSARY
FOR SEAS IF NOT WINDS AS WELL.  VISIBILITY MAY BE LIMITED AT TIMES
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY...SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
MARITIMES AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.  SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS.  SCA WILL BE NECESSARY FOR SEAS IF NOT WINDS AS
WELL.  VISIBILITY MAY BE LIMITED AT TIMES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY...SEAS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.  WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 30KTS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 8
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
     TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...DOODY/RLG

000
FXUS61 KGYX 192254
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
654 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...PRODUCING SHOWERS.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY.
THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVES IN. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND COULD BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WET
WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
645 PM...INDIVIDUAL SHRA ALONG WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SE...AS BAD OF SHRA TRACKS SLOWLY WEST. MID-UPPR LVL RIDGING AHEAD
OF THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL MAKE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT SLOW...AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING SEVERAL HOURS OF
SHRA...OR OCCNL RAIN TO THE AREA AS IT MOVES THRU. MODELS SUGGEST
THAT MID-LVL TROUGH DIGS A BIT LATE TONIGHT...AND COULD BRING SOME
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS TO ERN AND NR ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SRN NH
SHOULD START TO SEE SHRA END BEFORE DAYBREAK...WITH PRECIP ENDING
FROM W TO E DURING THE FIRST PART OF MON MORNING. TWEAKED
SKY/TEMPS A BIT AS WELL. MINS...ESPECIALLY IN S AND W ZONES LOOK
TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUSLY...A S/WV MOVG ESEWD ALONG THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A WEAK SFC LOW AND ASSOC WARM FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE W TONIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND WIDESPREAD SHWRS CAN BE
EXPCTD TO SPREAD QUICKLY FM W-E OVERNIGHT. STAYED CLOSE TO RFCQPF
AMTS FOR OVERNIGHT WHICH WERE BTWN .25-.50 WITH THE HIEST AMTS
FURTHER N. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE MILD ON THE MOIST SSELY FLOW
AND SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DVLP. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
GUID FOR OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT EXITS TO THE E IN THE MRNG BRINGING WITH
IT AN END TO THE SHWRS. THE AFTN SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY AND
MILD BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW AFTN INSTBLTY SHWRS AS A VERY WEAK
FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE N. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT MON NIGHT
AND WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE THAT WILL REMAIN...SO NO CLEARING
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN MAY DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS MON
NIGHT DUE TO LACK OF ANY LOW LEVEL VENTILATION. RFC QPF WAS USED
FOR MON WITH HIGHEST QPF AMTS OVER NRNMOST AREAS BUT STILL ALL
AREAS REMAIN UNDER .25 INCHES. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUID FOR
MAX/MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STALLED
FRONT WITH AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER. USED ECMWF FOR TIMING OF SYSTEMS. THIS RESULTS IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SOME CONVECTION. BEHIND THIS LOW A COOL NW
FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL DRY OUT MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH SOME
UP SLOPE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL AND MARINE
AREAS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN ONSHORE FLOW
ESTABLISHES ITSELF.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR TO IFR CONDS WILL SPREAD FROM S-N TONIGHT IN
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUES MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING BY AFTERNOON TO VFR CONDS AS THE WARM FRONT EXITS
TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER MON NIGHT SO PATCHY
FOG EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP PSBLY LOWERING CONDS TO IFR.

LONG TERM...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUE-THU. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A WEAK SFC AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE WATERS TONIGHT ALLOWING AN INCREASING SELY FLOW TO DVLP AND
SLOWLY BUILD THE SEAS, SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 5AM-3PM
MONDAY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT MONDAY, A WEAK
VARIABLE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING WINDS/SEAS TO DIMINISH LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.


LONG TERM...
WIND AND WAVES MAY REACH SCA LEVELS THU INTO FRI AS LOW PRESSURE
AND A COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE THREAT OF SHRA AND HIGHER RH VALUES ALONG WITH GREEN UP
CONTINUING TO OCCUR EXPECT FIRE WX DANGER TO BE LOW THRU THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...

000
FXUS61 KBOX 192017
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
417 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS...AND THEN
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THRU SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TUE
THRU THU. A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR THE
COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
BAND OF WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE E THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...THIS BAND IS LINED FROM SW NH
INTO SRN RI...AND MAKING SLOW PROGRESSION TO THE E. THE PRIMARY
REGION FOR THE SLOW MOVEMENT E HAS BEEN THE NEAR 15-20F DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION WHICH HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME. ALL
SOUNDINGS...INCLUDING THE LAPS IN THE E...SHOW THE COLUMN MOISTURE
LOADING FROM THE TOP DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING...SO SUSPECT THESE
-SHRA WILL BE EVERYWHERE BY THE TIME THE SUN SETS.

THE SFC WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE -SHRA IS CURRENTLY
SLIDING IN FROM THE W...SO EXPECT THAT THE THREAT FOR -SHRA WILL
LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THIS FRONT MAKES ITS SLOW
PASSAGE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF WITH THIS BUT MOST
LOCATIONS HAVE DAMP GROUND BY DAYBREAK. THE ADDED MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN /SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1.0-1.5 INCHES PWAT BY 12Z/ WILL LEAD TO
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND FOG AFTER THE -SHRA COME TO AN END
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG...BUT A FEW SPOTS MAY DIP TO NEAR 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

THE WARM FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF NH BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...SO SUSPECT THAT MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL
BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BY 12Z. ALSO...WITH SOME WEAK MID LVL
RIDGING WITHIN THIS WARM SECTOR...COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME BREAKS
OF EARLY MORNING SUN ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE S AND E COASTS WHERE
STRATUS LINGERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
SFC WARM FRONT REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS NH AND CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ALLOWING SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO
THE WARM SECTOR. WITH THE ACTUAL BOUNDARY TO THE N...AFTER SOME
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS IS ALLOWED TO BURN OFF...SOME BREAKS OF
SUN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED SINCE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SFC DWPTS SHOULD REACH
+15-18C AND TEMPS INCREASING TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F IN
SPOTS ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN DOES SHINE THROUGH. WHILE FORCING
MECHANISMS ARE MINIMAL AT BEST...GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THE FRONT
MAKES A SLOW SLIDE TO THE S DURING THE DAY. WITH WARM-HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE...SFC LI VALUES DIP TO 0 TO -3 WITH ABOUT
500-1000 J/KG OF SB CAPE TO WORK WITH. THEREFORE...MAY SEE A
THREAT FOR SOME DAYTIME T-STORMS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE S
COAST...WHERE SLY MARINE FLOW AND EARLY DAY STRATUS WILL KEEP
TEMPS DOWN...INCREASING STABILITY. GIVEN THIS...HAVE SOME CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDER IN THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHEAR
IS MINIMAL GIVEN THE WEAK RIDGING FLOW ALOFT...AND NORMALIZED CAPE
IS QUITE LOW SUGGESTING SKINNY PROFILE...SO HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS AND WILL INCLUDE THAT WITH
WX FOR THIS UPDATE.

MON NIGHT...
WARM FRONT CONTINUES SLOW MIGRATION OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY HANG SOMEWHERE THROUGH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THEREFORE...WITH DIURNAL
HEATING EARLY...MAY SEE LINGERING -SHRA/TSTMS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS UNTIL THE COLUMN IS ABLE TO STABILIZE. WITH SOME DRIER AIR
FILTERING BEHIND THE FRONT TO THE N...MAY ACTUALLY SEE PRECIP COME
TO AN END DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH DWPT AIR
HANGING IN THE WARM SECTOR NEAR THE S COAST...A RETURN TO
FOG/STRATUS IS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT THAT OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER EVEN IF THE PRECIPITATION DOES COMPLETELY CEASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
  * WARM FRONT MOVES THRU SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE
  * SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUE-THU
  * COOLER...LESS HUMID FOR THE WEEKEND

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS...AS WELL AS THE NAM TUE. THE NAM IS QUICKER THAN
EITHER THE ECMWF OR GFS WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION TUES.  THE GFS THEN WHISKS ALONG AND BRINGS LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH QUEBEC MORE QUICKLY WED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOONER ON THU THAN THE ECMWF.  HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL IN LINE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.  GENERALLY EXPECTING A MORE UNSETTLED BUT WARMER PATTERN
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WITH QUIETER BUT COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO OCCUR WITH THE WARM FRONT.  THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY THE MODELS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.  WITH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA...COULD SEE SOME VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURES WITH LOWER TEMPS
NORTH OF THE FRONT AND WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE ARE SOME TIMING QUESTIONS HERE
REGARDING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND
THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. NEITHER THE GFS NOR THE ECMWF HAVE THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION AND PATH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE COULD IMPACT THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AS WELL AS THE BEST PLACE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.  FOR NOW HAVE OPTED
FOR HIGH END CHANCE POPS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE THUNDER PRETTY
MUCH ACROSS THE BOARD.  INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE SUCH THAT EXPECT
THUNDER TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD.

FRIDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING IT
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM AND THE ECMWF BRINGING IT
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY.  THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL HAVE A LARGE
IMPACT ON THE WEATHER AS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER...MORE HUMID
AIR CAN BE FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE CLEARING SKIES AND
COOLER...LESS HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  IF THIS
OCCURS DURING THE EARLY MORNING...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER
BUT THE AREA WILL SEE MORE SUN...WHILE IF IT DOESN/T OCCUR UNTIL
MIDDAY COULD SEE WARMER HIGHS BUT LESS SUN.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...EXPECT A PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF MVFR/IFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MAINLY VFR SAVE FOR IN AN AREA OF -SHRA IN WRN MA AND CENTRAL CT.
THIS BAND OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE E
INTO THE EVENING. NOT CONFIDENT IN EXACT TIMING...BUT THE TAF
TREND REPRESENTS THE ROUGH TIMING OF BOTH -SHRA ONSET AND MVFR.
MAY SEE SOME MVFR/IFR FOG AS THE -SHRA MOVES OUT AFTER 06Z AT MANY
OF THE TERMINALS. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS POSSIBLE EARLY
MON...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE S COASTAL TERMINALS. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TAF TRENDS...BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. SEA BREEZE CONTINUES INTO EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BKN LOW STRATUS.
EXPECT MVFR IN -SHRA AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT MON MORNING. LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR WILL LIKELY
DOMINATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
FOLLOWING SOME -SHRA/FOG OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR WILL
BE DURING THE MORNING MON. LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED T-STORM
OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VERY
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA/FOG.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT.

A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH A MIX OF SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG /PARTICULARLY OVER THE SRN WATERS/ WHICH
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THE FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH LONG-FETCH AND PERSISTENT S FLOW...A
S-SW SWELL WILL BUILD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON S COASTAL
WATERS...REACHING 5-7 FT AT TIMES. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER UNTIL MON NIGHT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS
REMAINS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.  VISIBILITY MAY BE
LIMITED AT TIMES IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND FOG.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
WATERS.  SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS.  SCA WILL BE NECESSARY
FOR SEAS IF NOT WINDS AS WELL.  VISIBILITY MAY BE LIMITED AT TIMES
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY...SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
MARITIMES AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.  SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS.  SCA WILL BE NECESSARY FOR SEAS IF NOT WINDS AS
WELL.  VISIBILITY MAY BE LIMITED AT TIMES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY...SEAS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.  WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 30KTS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 8
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
     TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...DOODY/RLG

000
FXUS61 KBOX 191958
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
358 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS...AND THEN
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THRU SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TUE
THRU THU. A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR THE
COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
BAND OF WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE E THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...THIS BAND IS LINED FROM SW NH
INTO SRN RI...AND MAKING SLOW PROGRESSION TO THE E. THE PRIMARY
REGION FOR THE SLOW MOVEMENT E HAS BEEN THE NEAR 15-20F DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION WHICH HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME. ALL
SOUNDINGS...INCLUDING THE LAPS IN THE E...SHOW THE COLUMN MOISTURE
LOADING FROM THE TOP DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING...SO SUSPECT THESE
-SHRA WILL BE EVERYWHERE BY THE TIME THE SUN SETS.

THE SFC WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE -SHRA IS CURRENTLY
SLIDING IN FROM THE W...SO EXPECT THAT THE THREAT FOR -SHRA WILL
LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THIS FRONT MAKES ITS SLOW
PASSAGE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF WITH THIS BUT MOST
LOCATIONS HAVE DAMP GROUND BY DAYBREAK. THE ADDED MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN /SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1.0-1.5 INCHES PWAT BY 12Z/ WILL LEAD TO
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND FOG AFTER THE -SHRA COME TO AN END
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG...BUT A FEW SPOTS MAY DIP TO NEAR 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

THE WARM FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF NH BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...SO SUSPECT THAT MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL
BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BY 12Z. ALSO...WITH SOME WEAK MID LVL
RIDGING WITHIN THIS WARM SECTOR...COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME BREAKS
OF EARLY MORNING SUN ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE S AND E COASTS WHERE
STRATUS LINGERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
SFC WARM FRONT REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS NH AND CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ALLOWING SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO
THE WARM SECTOR. WITH THE ACTUAL BOUNDARY TO THE N...AFTER SOME
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS IS ALLOWED TO BURN OFF...SOME BREAKS OF
SUN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED SINCE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SFC DWPTS SHOULD REACH
+15-18C AND TEMPS INCREASING TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F IN
SPOTS ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN DOES SHINE THROUGH. WHILE FORCING
MECHANISMS ARE MINIMAL AT BEST...GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THE FRONT
MAKES A SLOW SLIDE TO THE S DURING THE DAY. WITH WARM-HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE...SFC LI VALUES DIP TO 0 TO -3 WITH ABOUT
500-1000 J/KG OF SB CAPE TO WORK WITH. THEREFORE...MAY SEE A
THREAT FOR SOME DAYTIME T-STORMS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE S
COAST...WHERE SLY MARINE FLOW AND EARLY DAY STRATUS WILL KEEP
TEMPS DOWN...INCREASING STABILITY. GIVEN THIS...HAVE SOME CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDER IN THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHEAR
IS MINIMAL GIVEN THE WEAK RIDGING FLOW ALOFT...AND NORMALIZED CAPE
IS QUITE LOW SUGGESTING SKINNY PROFILE...SO HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS AND WILL INCLUDE THAT WITH
WX FOR THIS UPDATE.

MON NIGHT...
WARM FRONT CONTINUES SLOW MIGRATION OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY HANG SOMEWHERE THROUGH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THEREFORE...WITH DIURNAL
HEATING EARLY...MAY SEE LINGERING -SHRA/TSTMS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS UNTIL THE COLUMN IS ABLE TO STABILIZE. WITH SOME DRIER AIR
FILTERING BEHIND THE FRONT TO THE N...MAY ACTUALLY SEE PRECIP COME
TO AN END DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH DWPT AIR
HANGING IN THE WARM SECTOR NEAR THE S COAST...A RETURN TO
FOG/STRATUS IS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT THAT OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER EVEN IF THE PRECIPITATION DOES COMPLETELY CEASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

HIGHLIGHTS...
* BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL REDUCE HUMIDITY AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
  EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY ON TUE
* WARM AND HUMID WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS WED AFTERNOON
  THRU AT LEAST THU NIGHT
* COOLER AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED FOR THE COMING WEEKEND

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PAINT A CONSISTENT SYNOPTIC SCALE PICTURE FOR
TUE THRU THU BUT STILL DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE TIMING AND
DISTRIBUTION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY. BOTH 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
MODELS SUGGEST A BACKDOOR INTRUSION OF DRY AIR ON TUE INTO WED
MORNING THRU ALL EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE FRONT
LIFTS BACK NE DURING WED AFTERNOON. THUS FOR TUE WILL RELEGATE
CHANCE SHOWERS/TSTMS JUST TO SW ZONES. THEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
OPERATIONAL RUNS AND THE PRIOR RUN ENSEMBLES DIVERGE ON CHARACTER
OF EASTERN TROF THAT WILL FLUSH OUT THE AIR MASS LATE IN THE WEEK.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A CONSOLIDATED NORTHERN
STREAM TROF DRIVING A COLD FRONT THRU THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING.
THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN AND ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEP A NOTABLE CHUNK OF
ENERGY SOUTH OF THE MAIN STREAM NORTHERN FLOW AND RESULTS IN THE
SPIN UP OF A SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND WET DAY FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRI.

TUE-WED...WILL INDICATE SCT SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT TSTMS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD AND SW OF A EEN-ORH-EWB LINE GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BACKDOOR AIR MASS TO EASE INTO OUR NE ZONES.

THE TREND FOR BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS TO BRING A BACKDOOR
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR INTO THE REGION ON TUE LENDS GREATER
CONFIDENCE THAT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TUE WILL LIKELY BE RESTRICTED
TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY AREA. HAVE ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER ALONG THE E COAST. THUS FOR EASTERN MA
AND RI TUE NO LONGER LOOKS TO BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY.

WED...THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS ADVANCES BACK NE AND SO DOES
THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

THU...RELATIVELY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. ANTICIPATING RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR THU AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW STRONG/SEVERE
TSTMS LATE THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOST LIKELY WESTERN HALF OF
AREA GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVE AND FRONT. RAISED POPS TO
HIGH CHANCE LATE THU AND THU NIGHT.

FRI...HAVE RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS DAY DUE TO MODEL
DISPARITY IN HANDLING THE CONFIGURATION OF THE EASTERN TROF
ENERGY. FOR NOW...PLAN TO HAVE SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST FRI MORNING
FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAT
PERSIST OVER THE SE ZONES...OR AT LEAST THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...TO
PERSIST TO AT LEAST FRI EVENING. IN ESSENCE AM LEANING TOWARD
ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY CONSISTENT AND SEEMS
TO BE FAVORED BY WPC. THE GFS HAS...HOWEVER...BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN ITS SOLUTION AND THE OPERATIONAL RUN IS SUPPORTED BY
ITS ENSEMBLES SO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THAT OUT. IF INDEED A
SURFACE LOW WERE TO DEVELOP AS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS...WE COULD
SEE WINDS APPROACHING MARGINAL GALES ON THE WATER AND A RISK FOR
SOME COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE LATE FRI EVENING HIGH TIDE...WHICH
IS QUITE HIGH ASTRONOMICALLY TO BEGIN WITH. THAT DOES NOT SEEM TO
BE THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON IT.

SAT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A COOL DRY AIR MASS
DOMINATING THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF MVFR/IFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MAINLY VFR SAVE FOR IN AN AREA OF -SHRA IN WRN MA AND CENTRAL CT.
THIS BAND OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE E
INTO THE EVENING. NOT CONFIDENT IN EXACT TIMING...BUT THE TAF
TREND REPRESENTS THE ROUGH TIMING OF BOTH -SHRA ONSET AND MVFR.
MAY SEE SOME MVFR/IFR FOG AS THE -SHRA MOVES OUT AFTER 06Z AT MANY
OF THE TERMINALS. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS POSSIBLE EARLY
MON...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE S COASTAL TERMINALS. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TAF TRENDS...BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. SEA BREEZE CONTINUES INTO EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BKN LOW STRATUS.
EXPECT MVFR IN -SHRA AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT MON MORNING. LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR WILL LIKELY
DOMINATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
FOLLOWING SOME -SHRA/FOG OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR WILL
BE DURING THE MORNING MON. LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED T-STORM
OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUE...SCT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS CT
VALLEY...VFR ELSEWHERE.

WED...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT
TSTMS.

THU...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH FOG AND STRATUS IN THE MORNING
AND THEN AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG TSTMS LATE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT.

A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH A MIX OF SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG /PARTICULARLY OVER THE SRN WATERS/ WHICH
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THE FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH LONG-FETCH AND PERSISTENT S FLOW...A
S-SW SWELL WILL BUILD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON S COASTAL
WATERS...REACHING 5-7 FT AT TIMES. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER UNTIL MON NIGHT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS
REMAINS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A LEFT OVER SWELL AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 7 FT LIKELY TUE...SUBSIDING
WED. BUILDING SEAS LIKELY THU AS SW FLOW STRENGTHENS. AREAS OF
FOG LIKELY WED NIGHT THRU THU. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LEVELS LATE
THU AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 8
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
     TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...DOODY/RLG

000
FXUS61 KGYX 191910
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
310 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OUT TO SEA AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE
WARM FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT DRIFTS SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE FRONT MOVES
BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A S/WV MOVG ESEWD ALONG THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW A WEAK SFC
LOW AND ASSOC WARM FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE W TONIGHT.
WITH THIS IN MIND WIDESPREAD SHWRS CAN BE EXPCTD TO SPREAD QUICKLY
FM W-E OVERNIGHT. STAYED CLOSE TO RFCQPF AMTS FOR OVERNIGHT WHICH
WERE BTWN .25-.50 WITH THE HIEST AMTS FURTHER N. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL BE MILD ON THE MOIST SSELY FLOW AND SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO
DVLP.  USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUID FOR OVERNIGHT MINS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT EXITS TO THE E IN THE MRNG BRINGING WITH
IT AN END TO THE SHWRS. THE AFTN SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY AND
MILD BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW AFTN INSTBLTY SHWRS AS A VERY WEAK
FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE N. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT MON NIGHT
AND WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE THAT WILL REMAIN...SO NO CLEARING
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN MAY DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS MON
NIGHT DUE TO LACK OF ANY LOW LEVEL VENTILATION. RFC QPF WAS USED
FOR MON WITH HIGHEST QPF AMTS OVER NRNMOST AREAS BUT STILL ALL
AREAS REMAIN UNDER .25 INCHES. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUID FOR
MAX/MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STALLED
FRONT WITH AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER. USED ECMWF FOR TIMING OF SYSTEMS. THIS RESULTS IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SOME CONVECTION. BEHIND THIS LOW A COOL NW
FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL DRY OUT MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH SOME
UP SLOPE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL AND MARINE
AREAS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN ONSHORE FLOW
ESTABLISHES ITSELF.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR TO IFR CONDS WILL SPREAD FROM S-N TONIGHT IN
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUES MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING BY AFTERNOON TO VFR CONDS AS THE WARM FRONT EXITS
TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER MON NIGHT SO PATCHY
FOG EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP PSBLY LOWERING CONDS TO IFR.

LONG TERM...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUE-THU. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED FRI.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A WEAK SFC AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE WATERS TONIGHT ALLOWING AN INCREASING SELY FLOW TO DVLP AND
SLOWLY BUILD THE SEAS, SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 5AM-3PM
MONDAY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT MONDAY, A WEAK
VARIABLE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING WINDS/SEAS TO DIMINISH LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.


LONG TERM...
WIND AND WAVES MAY REACH SCA LEVELS THU INTO FRI AS LOW PRESSURE
AND A COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE THREAT OF SHRA AND HIGHER RH VALUES ALONG WITH GREEN UP
CONTINUING TO OCCUR EXPECT FIRE WX DANGER TO BE LOW THRU THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$


LONG TERM...LULOFS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 191740
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
140 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING A DRY AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS INTO MOST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE BEFORE RETREATING BACK AS A WARM FRONT
ON WED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TUE AFTERNOON IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND OVER
MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COOLER AND
LESS HUMID AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...

PRIMARILY UPDATED SKIES WITH THIS UPDATE AS BULK OF LOW AND MID
CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED INTO CENTRAL AND ALMOST EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME YET
/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ALMOST 15-20F/ IN THE EAST...WILL STILL
HOLD THE -SHRA IN CT AND W MA AT BAY UNTIL EVENING...AS IT WILL
LIKELY TAKE UNTIL THEN...WITH THE ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM THE
INCOMING WARM FRONT TO GET THESE -SHRA TO REACH THE GROUND. STILL
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF TOTAL RAINFALL...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS AT LEAST SEE SOME DAMP GROUND.

OTHERWISE...STRATUS WILL SPILL INTO BOSTON HARBOR AND POSSIBLY THE
NORTH AND IMMEDIATE S SHORES /ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST/.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING
BUT LOW CLOUD DECK OVER COASTAL ME/NH PUSHED BACK INTO
MANCHESTER...LAWRENCE AND BEVERLY. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THAT
IS ABOUT AS FAR S AS IT WILL GET BEFORE IT BEGINS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE BY MID MORNING.

STILL NOT SEEING MUCH IN WAY OF SHOWERS TO OUR SW AS ACTIVITY OVER
NJ IS PIVOTING OFFSHORE. HIGH RES MODELS ARE INSISTENT WE WILL
SEE DEVELOPMENT INTO HUDSON VALLEY AND CT BEFORE DAYBREAK.
RAP/HRRR BRING SHOWERS TO CT VALLEY BY 8 AM AND TO REST OF AREA
BEFORE NOON. NOT SEEING MUCH SUPPORT FOR THAT TO OCCUR BASED UPON
RADAR MOSAIC SO WE CONTINUED WITH SLOWER TREND SHOWN BY 00Z NAM...
NAMELY ANY SHOWERS HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. ANY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

TEMPS ARE A CHALLENGE TODAY WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM QUICKLY THIS MORNING BEFORE SKIES CLOUD
OVER AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW WARMEST
TEMPS ACROSS RI/EASTERN MA /UPPER 60S/ AND USED A NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND AS CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH REGION TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY FEW SHOWERS.
DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG AS MAIN FORCING MECHANISM APPEARS
TO BE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT/RI/SE MA
WHERE WE EXPECT GREATEST COVERAGE. MODELS DO SHOW MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND MEAGER CAPE SO INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER...AGAIN
MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO S COAST. HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ON
S/SW WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE PATCHY FOG FORMATION.

ALTHOUGH FRONT REMAINS TO OUR N MON...CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY
OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MEANS CLOUD COVER WILL BE TOUGH TO
BREAK...ESPECIALLY NEAR S COAST WHERE SW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN DEEPER
MARINE LAYER. MODELS DIFFER IN COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT IT APPEARS WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS INTERIOR THROUGHOUT DAY.

EXPECT WARMER/MORE HUMID DAY BUT NOT QUITE SURE WE CAN REACH
LOWER 80S AS INDICATED BY GFS MOS. TONED BACK A BIT BY BLENDING
NAM MOS AND 2M TEMPERATURES WHICH YIELDS HIGHS IN MID-UPPER 70S
EXCEPT 60S AROUND CAPE COD/ISLANDS WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

HIGHLIGHTS...
* BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL REDUCE HUMIDITY AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
  EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY ON TUE
* WARM AND HUMID WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS WED AFTERNOON
  THRU AT LEAST THU NIGHT
* COOLER AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED FOR THE COMING WEEKEND

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PAINT A CONSISTENT SYNOPTIC SCALE PICTURE FOR
TUE THRU THU BUT STILL DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE TIMING AND
DISTRIBUTION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY. BOTH 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
MODELS SUGGEST A BACKDOOR INTRUSION OF DRY AIR ON TUE INTO WED
MORNING THRU ALL EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE FRONT
LIFTS BACK NE DURING WED AFTERNOON. THUS FOR TUE WILL RELEGATE
CHANCE SHOWERS/TSTMS JUST TO SW ZONES. THEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
OPERATIONAL RUNS AND THE PRIOR RUN ENSEMBLES DIVERGE ON CHARACTER
OF EASTERN TROF THAT WILL FLUSH OUT THE AIR MASS LATE IN THE WEEK.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A CONSOLIDATED NORTHERN
STREAM TROF DRIVING A COLD FRONT THRU THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING.
THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN AND ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEP A NOTABLE CHUNK OF
ENERGY SOUTH OF THE MAIN STREAM NORTHERN FLOW AND RESULTS IN THE
SPIN UP OF A SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND WET DAY FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRI.

TUE-WED...WILL INDICATE SCT SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT TSTMS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD AND SW OF A EEN-ORH-EWB LINE GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BACKDOOR AIR MASS TO EASE INTO OUR NE ZONES.

THE TREND FOR BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS TO BRING A BACKDOOR
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR INTO THE REGION ON TUE LENDS GREATER
CONFIDENCE THAT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TUE WILL LIKELY BE RESTRICTED
TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY AREA. HAVE ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER ALONG THE E COAST. THUS FOR EASTERN MA
AND RI TUE NO LONGER LOOKS TO BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY.

WED...THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS ADVANCES BACK NE AND SO DOES
THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

THU...RELATIVELY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. ANTICIPATING RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR THU AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW STRONG/SEVERE
TSTMS LATE THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOST LIKELY WESTERN HALF OF
AREA GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVE AND FRONT. RAISED POPS TO
HIGH CHANCE LATE THU AND THU NIGHT.

FRI...HAVE RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS DAY DUE TO MODEL
DISPARITY IN HANDLING THE CONFIGURATION OF THE EASTERN TROF
ENERGY. FOR NOW...PLAN TO HAVE SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST FRI MORNING
FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAT
PERSIST OVER THE SE ZONES...OR AT LEAST THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...TO
PERSIST TO AT LEAST FRI EVENING. IN ESSENCE AM LEANING TOWARD
ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY CONSISTENT AND SEEMS
TO BE FAVORED BY WPC. THE GFS HAS...HOWEVER...BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN ITS SOLUTION AND THE OPERATIONAL RUN IS SUPPORTED BY
ITS ENSEMBLES SO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THAT OUT. IF INDEED A
SURFACE LOW WERE TO DEVELOP AS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS...WE COULD
SEE WINDS APPROACHING MARGINAL GALES ON THE WATER AND A RISK FOR
SOME COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE LATE FRI EVENING HIGH TIDE...WHICH
IS QUITE HIGH ASTRONOMICALLY TO BEGIN WITH. THAT DOES NOT SEEM TO
BE THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON IT.

SAT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A COOL DRY AIR MASS
DOMINATING THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF MVFR/IFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MAINLY VFR SAVE FOR IN AN AREA OF -SHRA IN WRN MA AND CENTRAL CT.
THIS BAND OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE E
INTO THE EVENING. NOT CONFIDENT IN EXACT TIMING...BUT THE TAF
TREND REPRESENTS THE ROUGH TIMING OF BOTH -SHRA ONSET AND MVFR.
MAY SEE SOME MVFR/IFR FOG AS THE -SHRA MOVES OUT AFTER 06Z AT MANY
OF THE TERMINALS. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS POSSIBLE EARLY
MON...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE S COASTAL TERMINALS. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TAF TRENDS...BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. SEA BREEZE CONTINUES INTO EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BKN LOW STRATUS.
EXPECT MVFR IN -SHRA AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT MON MORNING. LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR WILL LIKELY
DOMINATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
FOLLOWING SOME -SHRA/FOG OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR WILL
BE DURING THE MORNING MON. LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED T-STORM
OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUE...SCT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS CT
VALLEY...VFR ELSEWHERE.

WED...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT
TSTMS.

THU...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH FOG AND STRATUS IN THE MORNING
AND THEN AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG TSTMS LATE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS/FLAT SEAS
TODAY. COULD SEE FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM
FRONT APPROACHES.

INCREASING S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT AND MON AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING SLOWLY BUILDING SEAS TO
OUTER WATERS WHERE CURRENT SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO MON. ADDED
RI/BLOCK IS SOUNDS TO SCA AS WELL...AND BUZZARDS BAY/VINEYARD
SOUND WHERE SW WINDS WILL CREATE STEEP WAVES DURING TIMES OF
DEPARTING TIDE /HIGH TIDE 355 AM AND 437 PM MON AT NEW BEDFORD/.

SHOULD ALSO SEE PERIOD OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER TONIGHT AND
MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY MON. PATCHY DENSE FOG PROBABLE
AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A LEFT OVER SWELL AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 7 FT LIKELY TUE...SUBSIDING
WED. BUILDING SEAS LIKELY THU AS SW FLOW STRENGTHENS. AREAS OF
FOG LIKELY WED NIGHT THRU THU. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LEVELS LATE
THU AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
     TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DOODY/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...DOODY/THOMPSON
MARINE...JWD/THOMPSON

000
FXUS61 KGYX 191458
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1058 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OUT TO SEA AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO ELIMINATE THE CHC OF -SHRA THIS AFTN...ALSO TO ALLOW
P/S CONDS OVER MUCH OF SRN ME AND ERN NH AS LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF
FOLLOWED BY SOME SUN THEN INCRG MID/HI CLOUDS IN THE AFTN.

PREV DISC;
HIGH PRES DRIFTS OUT TO SEA TDA. A WRM FNT MOVES IN FROM THE SW
WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A CD FNT IS PRESSING SE FROM CANADA. THIS
WILL CONT ONSHORE FLOW TDA WITH LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVER SE NH AND
SW AND COASTAL ME SLOW TO LIFT TDA. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS MIDDAY.
THERE IS ALSO A BATCH OF -SHRA MOVING SE FROM THE MID AND SW COAST
OF ME TO THE GULF OF MAINE. THESE -SHRA KEEP REGENERATING NEAR THE
COAST AND MOVE OFFSHORE. WILL SHOW A CHC OF PRCP THIS AREA FOR A
WHILE THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE PATCHY VALLEY F AS TEMPS HAVE
COOLED CLOSE TO DEW POINTS UNDER MOSTLY CLR SKIES WITH LGT WINDS.
THE APPROACHING FRONTS WILL BRING IN CLOUDS N AND CENTRAL WHILE
ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA MOVE INTO SRN AREAS LATER TDA. PRCP AMOUNTS
WILL BE LGT...USED A BLEND OF RFC/HPC QPF. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE 60S EXCEPT 50S ALONG THE COAST DUE TO ONSHORE MARINE FLOW AND
LACK OF MUCH SUNSHINE. BEST CHC TO HIT 70 ACTUALLY OVER NRN NH
WHERE THEY MAY SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
AFTER THE EARLY MORNING F BURNS OFF AND BEFORE FRONTAL CLOUDS
ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA WHILE THE WRM FNT MOVES IN
FROM THE SW AND THE CANADIAN CD FNT FROM THE NW. THE CD FNT
ACTUALLY PUSHES S INTO THE REGION AS THE WRM FNT STALLS OUT. THIS
SCENARIO SHOULD GIVE US LOTS OF CLOUDS AND AT LEAST SCT SHRA. AS
THE CD FNT DROPS IN FROM THE N IT WILL BRING AN END TO PRCP OVER
NRN AREAS ON MONDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CONT AS MARINE AIR
HELPS MOISTEN LOW LEVELS AND CREATES AREAS OF F...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL AND ADJACENT INTERIOR AREAS. USED A BLEND OF RFC/HPC QPF.
USED BLEND OF NAM/GFS AND MET/MAV MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NUMERICALS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH
LATE NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY A FLAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST AND LEAVES THE FORECAST AREA IN
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER...FALLING
HEIGHTS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SOME DEGREE OF EASTERN TROUGH
EMERGES. WITH MEAN JET AXIS OVERHEAD OR NEARBY...THE AREA FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRAVEL
EASTWARD ALONG A BOUNDARY SEPARATING SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH FROM EARLY
SPRING CHILL.

IN THE DAILIES...UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH IFR/MVFR
CIG ...GENERALLY FROM 500 TO 2000 FEET... FROM STRATUS OVER SE NH
AND SW AND COASTAL ME ZONES... INCLUDING PSM, CON, PWM. RKD AND
AUG TAFS. SOME RADIATION F OVER INT SECTIONS MAY IMPACT HIE AND
LEB. COMPLEX WX PATTERN BRINGS CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHRA TO THE
REGION THRU THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD WITH STRATUS LIFTING TDA
BUT RETURNING TNGT ALONG WITH PATCHY F.

LONG TERM...

TUE - THU...AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...WILL UPDATE TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA WHICH WILL RESULT IN NO MORE THAN A FEW TWEAKS TO
THE PREVIOUS FCST. TSTMS OVER THE OCEAN ARE JUST BEYOND THE
COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING TO THE SE AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS
SO NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR MARINE ZONES. ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH WINDS STAYING BELOW SCA
LEVELS WHILE SEAS SLOWLY BUILD...MOST LIKELY REACHING SCA LEVELS
LATE TNGT AND MONDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS AND PERHAPS NEARING THE
5 FT CRITERIA OVER THE BAYS ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE THREAT OF SHRA AND HIGHER RH VALUES ALONG WITH GREEN UP
CONTINUING TO OCCUR EXPECT FIRE WX DANGER TO BE LOW THRU THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KBOX 191405
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING A DRY AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS INTO MOST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE BEFORE RETREATING BACK AS A WARM FRONT
ON WED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TUE AFTERNOON IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND OVER
MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COOLER AND
LESS HUMID AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 UPDATE...
MUCH OF THE SFC FOG AND STRATUS HAS BURNED OFF THIS MORNING SAVE
FOR EXTREME ERN NH WHERE A STRATUS DECK GRADUALLY DISSIPATES.
OTHERWISE...AS EXPECTED...SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE LOW-MID CLOUDS THAT
ARE BUILDING IN FROM THE SW. CURRENTLY THEY ARE DRAPED FROM NRN
FRANKLIN CT MA SE TO W RI...WITH CT NOW ALMOST COMPLETELY
OVERCAST. INTO THE AFTERNOON THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD BKN-OVC LOW
AND MID CLOUDS EVERYWHERE. THEREFORE...MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE
REACHED BY ABOUT MID DAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH LOW 70S
POSSIBLE IN ERN MA.  ADJUSTED TEMPS TOWARD THIS THINKING.

STILL THINK THAT GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO FAST IN TRYING TO BRING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION. THE -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC
WARM FRONT HAS ONLY MADE VERY SLIGHT ENE PROGRESSION OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS. SO SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE HIGHER POPS THROUGH THE
DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING
BUT LOW CLOUD DECK OVER COASTAL ME/NH PUSHED BACK INTO
MANCHESTER...LAWRENCE AND BEVERLY. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THAT
IS ABOUT AS FAR S AS IT WILL GET BEFORE IT BEGINS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE BY MID MORNING.

STILL NOT SEEING MUCH IN WAY OF SHOWERS TO OUR SW AS ACTIVITY OVER
NJ IS PIVOTING OFFSHORE. HIGH RES MODELS ARE INSISTENT WE WILL
SEE DEVELOPMENT INTO HUDSON VALLEY AND CT BEFORE DAYBREAK.
RAP/HRRR BRING SHOWERS TO CT VALLEY BY 8 AM AND TO REST OF AREA
BEFORE NOON. NOT SEEING MUCH SUPPORT FOR THAT TO OCCUR BASED UPON
RADAR MOSAIC SO WE CONTINUED WITH SLOWER TREND SHOWN BY 00Z NAM...
NAMELY ANY SHOWERS HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. ANY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

TEMPS ARE A CHALLENGE TODAY WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM QUICKLY THIS MORNING BEFORE SKIES CLOUD
OVER AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW WARMEST
TEMPS ACROSS RI/EASTERN MA /UPPER 60S/ AND USED A NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND AS CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH REGION TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY FEW SHOWERS.
DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG AS MAIN FORCING MECHANISM APPEARS
TO BE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT/RI/SE MA
WHERE WE EXPECT GREATEST COVERAGE. MODELS DO SHOW MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND MEAGER CAPE SO INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER...AGAIN
MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO S COAST. HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ON
S/SW WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE PATCHY FOG FORMATION.

ALTHOUGH FRONT REMAINS TO OUR N MON...CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY
OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MEANS CLOUD COVER WILL BE TOUGH TO
BREAK...ESPECIALLY NEAR S COAST WHERE SW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN DEEPER
MARINE LAYER. MODELS DIFFER IN COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT IT APPEARS WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS INTERIOR THROUGHOUT DAY.

EXPECT WARMER/MORE HUMID DAY BUT NOT QUITE SURE WE CAN REACH
LOWER 80S AS INDICATED BY GFS MOS. TONED BACK A BIT BY BLENDING
NAM MOS AND 2M TEMPERATURES WHICH YIELDS HIGHS IN MID-UPPER 70S
EXCEPT 60S AROUND CAPE COD/ISLANDS WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

HIGHLIGHTS...
* BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL REDUCE HUMIDITY AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
  EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY ON TUE
* WARM AND HUMID WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS WED AFTERNOON
  THRU AT LEAST THU NIGHT
* COOLER AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED FOR THE COMING WEEKEND

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PAINT A CONSISTENT SYNOPTIC SCALE PICTURE FOR
TUE THRU THU BUT STILL DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE TIMING AND
DISTRIBUTION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY. BOTH 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
MODELS SUGGEST A BACKDOOR INTRUSION OF DRY AIR ON TUE INTO WED
MORNING THRU ALL EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE FRONT
LIFTS BACK NE DURING WED AFTERNOON. THUS FOR TUE WILL RELEGATE
CHANCE SHOWERS/TSTMS JUST TO SW ZONES. THEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
OPERATIONAL RUNS AND THE PRIOR RUN ENSEMBLES DIVERGE ON CHARACTER
OF EASTERN TROF THAT WILL FLUSH OUT THE AIR MASS LATE IN THE WEEK.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A CONSOLIDATED NORTHERN
STREAM TROF DRIVING A COLD FRONT THRU THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING.
THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN AND ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEP A NOTABLE CHUNK OF
ENERGY SOUTH OF THE MAIN STREAM NORTHERN FLOW AND RESULTS IN THE
SPIN UP OF A SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND WET DAY FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRI.

TUE-WED...WILL INDICATE SCT SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT TSTMS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD AND SW OF A EEN-ORH-EWB LINE GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BACKDOOR AIR MASS TO EASE INTO OUR NE ZONES.

THE TREND FOR BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS TO BRING A BACKDOOR
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR INTO THE REGION ON TUE LENDS GREATER
CONFIDENCE THAT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TUE WILL LIKELY BE RESTRICTED
TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY AREA. HAVE ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER ALONG THE E COAST. THUS FOR EASTERN MA
AND RI TUE NO LONGER LOOKS TO BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY.

WED...THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS ADVANCES BACK NE AND SO DOES
THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

THU...RELATIVELY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. ANTICIPATING RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR THU AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW STRONG/SEVERE
TSTMS LATE THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOST LIKELY WESTERN HALF OF
AREA GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVE AND FRONT. RAISED POPS TO
HIGH CHANCE LATE THU AND THU NIGHT.

FRI...HAVE RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS DAY DUE TO MODEL
DISPARITY IN HANDLING THE CONFIGURATION OF THE EASTERN TROF
ENERGY. FOR NOW...PLAN TO HAVE SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST FRI MORNING
FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAT
PERSIST OVER THE SE ZONES...OR AT LEAST THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...TO
PERSIST TO AT LEAST FRI EVENING. IN ESSENCE AM LEANING TOWARD
ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY CONSISTENT AND SEEMS
TO BE FAVORED BY WPC. THE GFS HAS...HOWEVER...BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN ITS SOLUTION AND THE OPERATIONAL RUN IS SUPPORTED BY
ITS ENSEMBLES SO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THAT OUT. IF INDEED A
SURFACE LOW WERE TO DEVELOP AS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS...WE COULD
SEE WINDS APPROACHING MARGINAL GALES ON THE WATER AND A RISK FOR
SOME COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE LATE FRI EVENING HIGH TIDE...WHICH
IS QUITE HIGH ASTRONOMICALLY TO BEGIN WITH. THAT DOES NOT SEEM TO
BE THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON IT.

SAT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A COOL DRY AIR MASS
DOMINATING THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE AFTER PATCHES OF MORNING FOG DISAPPEAR.

AREA OF IFR CIGS DUE TO ST AND POCKETS OF IFR VSBYS FROM FOG NE
MA SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE BY AROUND 14Z. OTHERWISE
VFR CIGS AOA 080 E AND AOA 035 W EXPECTED THIS MORNING...BEFORE
SLOWLY LOWERING TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON FROM SW TO NE.

S/SW GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD BE LIMITED TO S
COAST TODAY. DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE ALONG E MA COAST BUT IF IT
WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD BE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON PERIOD OF SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON BAF/BDL
WHICH SHIFTS TO RI/MA COASTS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS NEAR S COAST TONIGHT. ISOLD THUNDER POSSIBLE IN W LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND THIS EVENING IN THE E.

ALTHOUGH SHOWERS EXIT BEFORE DAYBREAK...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/
THUNDER MAY REDEVELOP DURING DAY MON AS WARM FRONT LIFTS TO OUR
N. APPEARS COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST...WITH INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAVING BEST CHANCE.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN HANDLING FOG BANK UNTIL MID
MORNING...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THINK FOG WILL FLIRT WITH
AIRPORT FOR ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE SW GRADIENT...ALBEIT
WEAK...HELPS LIFT IT OFFSHORE. NOT CONFIDENT SEA BREEZE WILL
OCCUR BUT IF IT DOES IT WOULD BE 16Z- 19Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
AFT ABOUT 19 OR 20Z AS SCT SHOWERS SATURATE LOWER PORTION OF
ATMOSPHERE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUE...SCT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS CT
VALLEY...VFR ELSEWHERE.

WED...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT
TSTMS.

THU...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH FOG AND STRATUS IN THE MORNING
AND THEN AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG TSTMS LATE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS/FLAT SEAS
TODAY. COULD SEE FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM
FRONT APPROACHES.

INCREASING S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT AND MON AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING SLOWLY BUILDING SEAS TO
OUTER WATERS WHERE CURRENT SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO MON. ADDED
RI/BLOCK IS SOUNDS TO SCA AS WELL...AND BUZZARDS BAY/VINEYARD
SOUND WHERE SW WINDS WILL CREATE STEEP WAVES DURING TIMES OF
DEPARTING TIDE /HIGH TIDE 355 AM AND 437 PM MON AT NEW BEDFORD/.

SHOULD ALSO SEE PERIOD OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER TONIGHT AND
MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY MON. PATCHY DENSE FOG PROBABLE
AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A LEFT OVER SWELL AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 7 FT LIKELY TUE...SUBSIDING
WED. BUILDING SEAS LIKELY THU AS SW FLOW STRENGTHENS. AREAS OF
FOG LIKELY WED NIGHT THRU THU. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LEVELS LATE
THU AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
     TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DOODY/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...JWD/THOMPSON
MARINE...JWD/THOMPSON

000
FXUS61 KBOX 191149
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
749 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING A DRY AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS INTO MOST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE BEFORE RETREATING BACK AS A WARM FRONT
ON WED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TUE AFTERNOON IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND OVER
MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COOLER AND
LESS HUMID AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
730 AM UPDATE...
SCT SHOWERS HAVE WORKED THEIR WAY INTO SW CT AND POCKETS OF
STRATUS/FOG ERN MA BUT THINK ENOUGH S/SW GRADIENT TO HELP THINK
AND PUSH BACK OFFSHORE IN NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THINK PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW AND SHOULD INITIALLY BE QUITE LIGHT.
THERE IS A RISK OF ISOLD ELEVATED THUNDER WEST LATE AS WARM
ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE REFLECTED BY INCREASING K INDEX
VALUES.

320 AM UPDATE...

PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING
BUT LOW CLOUD DECK OVER COASTAL ME/NH PUSHED BACK INTO
MANCHESTER...LAWRENCE AND BEVERLY. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THAT
IS ABOUT AS FAR S AS IT WILL GET BEFORE IT BEGINS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE BY MID MORNING.

STILL NOT SEEING MUCH IN WAY OF SHOWERS TO OUR SW AS ACTIVITY OVER
NJ IS PIVOTING OFFSHORE. HIGH RES MODELS ARE INSISTENT WE WILL
SEE DEVELOPMENT INTO HUDSON VALLEY AND CT BEFORE DAYBREAK.
RAP/HRRR BRING SHOWERS TO CT VALLEY BY 8 AM AND TO REST OF AREA
BEFORE NOON. NOT SEEING MUCH SUPPORT FOR THAT TO OCCUR BASED UPON
RADAR MOSAIC SO WE CONTINUED WITH SLOWER TREND SHOWN BY 00Z NAM...
NAMELY ANY SHOWERS HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. ANY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

TEMPS ARE A CHALLENGE TODAY WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM QUICKLY THIS MORNING BEFORE SKIES CLOUD
OVER AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW WARMEST
TEMPS ACROSS RI/EASTERN MA /UPPER 60S/ AND USED A NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND AS CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH REGION TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY FEW SHOWERS.
DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG AS MAIN FORCING MECHANISM APPEARS
TO BE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT/RI/SE MA
WHERE WE EXPECT GREATEST COVERAGE. MODELS DO SHOW MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND MEAGER CAPE SO INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER...AGAIN
MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO S COAST. HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ON
S/SW WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE PATCHY FOG FORMATION.

ALTHOUGH FRONT REMAINS TO OUR N MON...CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY
OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MEANS CLOUD COVER WILL BE TOUGH TO
BREAK...ESPECIALLY NEAR S COAST WHERE SW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN DEEPER
MARINE LAYER. MODELS DIFFER IN COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT IT APPEARS WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS INTERIOR THROUGHOUT DAY.

EXPECT WARMER/MORE HUMID DAY BUT NOT QUITE SURE WE CAN REACH
LOWER 80S AS INDICATED BY GFS MOS. TONED BACK A BIT BY BLENDING
NAM MOS AND 2M TEMPERATURES WHICH YIELDS HIGHS IN MID-UPPER 70S
EXCEPT 60S AROUND CAPE COD/ISLANDS WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

HIGHLIGHTS...
* BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL REDUCE HUMIDITY AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
  EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY ON TUE
* WARM AND HUMID WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS WED AFTERNOON
  THRU AT LEAST THU NIGHT
* COOLER AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED FOR THE COMING WEEKEND

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PAINT A CONSISTENT SYNOPTIC SCALE PICTURE FOR
TUE THRU THU BUT STILL DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE TIMING AND
DISTRIBUTION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY. BOTH 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
MODELS SUGGEST A BACKDOOR INTRUSION OF DRY AIR ON TUE INTO WED
MORNING THRU ALL EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE FRONT
LIFTS BACK NE DURING WED AFTERNOON. THUS FOR TUE WILL RELEGATE
CHANCE SHOWERS/TSTMS JUST TO SW ZONES. THEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
OPERATIONAL RUNS AND THE PRIOR RUN ENSEMBLES DIVERGE ON CHARACTER
OF EASTERN TROF THAT WILL FLUSH OUT THE AIR MASS LATE IN THE WEEK.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A CONSOLIDATED NORTHERN
STREAM TROF DRIVING A COLD FRONT THRU THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING.
THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN AND ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEP A NOTABLE CHUNK OF
ENERGY SOUTH OF THE MAIN STREAM NORTHERN FLOW AND RESULTS IN THE
SPIN UP OF A SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND WET DAY FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRI.

TUE-WED...WILL INDICATE SCT SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT TSTMS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD AND SW OF A EEN-ORH-EWB LINE GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BACKDOOR AIR MASS TO EASE INTO OUR NE ZONES.

THE TREND FOR BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS TO BRING A BACKDOOR
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR INTO THE REGION ON TUE LENDS GREATER
CONFIDENCE THAT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TUE WILL LIKELY BE RESTRICTED
TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY AREA. HAVE ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER ALONG THE E COAST. THUS FOR EASTERN MA
AND RI TUE NO LONGER LOOKS TO BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY.

WED...THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS ADVANCES BACK NE AND SO DOES
THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

THU...RELATIVELY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. ANTICIPATING RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR THU AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW STRONG/SEVERE
TSTMS LATE THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOST LIKELY WESTERN HALF OF
AREA GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVE AND FRONT. RAISED POPS TO
HIGH CHANCE LATE THU AND THU NIGHT.

FRI...HAVE RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS DAY DUE TO MODEL
DISPARITY IN HANDLING THE CONFIGURATION OF THE EASTERN TROF
ENERGY. FOR NOW...PLAN TO HAVE SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST FRI MORNING
FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAT
PERSIST OVER THE SE ZONES...OR AT LEAST THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...TO
PERSIST TO AT LEAST FRI EVENING. IN ESSENCE AM LEANING TOWARD
ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY CONSISTENT AND SEEMS
TO BE FAVORED BY WPC. THE GFS HAS...HOWEVER...BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN ITS SOLUTION AND THE OPERATIONAL RUN IS SUPPORTED BY
ITS ENSEMBLES SO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THAT OUT. IF INDEED A
SURFACE LOW WERE TO DEVELOP AS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS...WE COULD
SEE WINDS APPROACHING MARGINAL GALES ON THE WATER AND A RISK FOR
SOME COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE LATE FRI EVENING HIGH TIDE...WHICH
IS QUITE HIGH ASTRONOMICALLY TO BEGIN WITH. THAT DOES NOT SEEM TO
BE THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON IT.

SAT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A COOL DRY AIR MASS
DOMINATING THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE AFTER PATCHES OF MORNING FOG DISAPPEAR.

AREA OF IFR CIGS DUE TO ST AND POCKETS OF IFR VSBYS FROM FOG NE
MA SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE BY AROUND 14Z. OTHERWISE
VFR CIGS AOA 080 E AND AOA 035 W EXPECTED THIS MORNING...BEFORE
SLOWLY LOWERING TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON FROM SW TO NE.

S/SW GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD BE LIMITED TO S
COAST TODAY. DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE ALONG E MA COAST BUT IF IT
WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD BE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON PERIOD OF SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON BAF/BDL
WHICH SHIFTS TO RI/MA COASTS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS NEAR S COAST TONIGHT. ISOLD THUNDER POSSIBLE IN W LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND THIS EVENING IN THE E.

ALTHOUGH SHOWERS EXIT BEFORE DAYBREAK...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/
THUNDER MAY REDEVELOP DURING DAY MON AS WARM FRONT LIFTS TO OUR
N. APPEARS COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST...WITH INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAVING BEST CHANCE.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN HANDLING FOG BANK UNTIL MID
MORNING...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THINK FOG WILL FLIRT WITH
AIRPORT FOR ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE SW GRADIENT...ALBEIT
WEAK...HELPS LIFT IT OFFSHORE. NOT CONFIDENT SEA BREEZE WILL
OCCUR BUT IF IT DOES IT WOULD BE 16Z- 19Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
AFT ABOUT 19 OR 20Z AS SCT SHOWERS SATURATE LOWER PORTION OF
ATMOSPHERE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUE...SCT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS CT
VALLEY...VFR ELSEWHERE.

WED...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT
TSTMS.

THU...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH FOG AND STRATUS IN THE MORNING
AND THEN AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG TSTMS LATE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS/FLAT SEAS
TODAY. COULD SEE FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM
FRONT APPROACHES.

INCREASING S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT AND MON AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING SLOWLY BUILDING SEAS TO
OUTER WATERS WHERE CURRENT SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO MON. ADDED
RI/BLOCK IS SOUNDS TO SCA AS WELL...AND BUZZARDS BAY/VINEYARD
SOUND WHERE SW WINDS WILL CREATE STEEP WAVES DURING TIMES OF
DEPARTING TIDE /HIGH TIDE 355 AM AND 437 PM MON AT NEW BEDFORD/.

SHOULD ALSO SEE PERIOD OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER TONIGHT AND
MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY MON. PATCHY DENSE FOG PROBABLE
AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A LEFT OVER SWELL AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 7 FT LIKELY TUE...SUBSIDING
WED. BUILDING SEAS LIKELY THU AS SW FLOW STRENGTHENS. AREAS OF
FOG LIKELY WED NIGHT THRU THU. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LEVELS LATE
THU AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
     TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...JWD/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...JWD/THOMPSON
MARINE...JWD/THOMPSON

000
FXUS61 KGYX 191059
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
659 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OUT TO SEA AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL UPDATE TO LOWER CHC OF -SHRA THIS MORNING OVER INTERIOR ZONES
OF SE NH AND SW ME...BUT CONT SLGT CHC/CHC OVER COASTAL ZONES PER
RADAR WHICH SHOWS ACTIVITY STILL FORMING NEAR THE COAST AND
MOVING TO THE SE. LDS SHOWING LIGHTNING IN ECHOES WELL OFFSHORE
WHICH ARE BEYOND OUR COASTAL WATERS. TSTMS ARE MOVING TO THE SE
AWAY FROM THE FCST AREA. WILL KEEP PATCHY F IN NRN VALLEYS A
COUPLE HOURS LONGER THIS MORNING PER VIS SATELLITE AND METAR
REPORTS.

HIGH PRES DRIFTS OUT TO SEA TDA. A WRM FNT MOVES IN FROM THE SW
WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A CD FNT IS PRESSING SE FROM CANADA. THIS
WILL CONT ONSHORE FLOW TDA WITH LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVER SE NH AND
SW AND COASTAL ME SLOW TO LIFT TDA. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS MIDDAY.
THERE IS ALSO A BATCH OF -SHRA MOVING SE FROM THE MID AND SW COAST
OF ME TO THE GULF OF MAINE. THESE -SHRA KEEP REGENERATING NEAR THE
COAST AND MOVE OFFSHORE. WILL SHOW A CHC OF PRCP THIS AREA FOR A
WHILE THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE PATCHY VALLEY F AS TEMPS HAVE
COOLED CLOSE TO DEW POINTS UNDER MOSTLY CLR SKIES WITH LGT WINDS.
THE APPROACHING FRONTS WILL BRING IN CLOUDS N AND CENTRAL WHILE
ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA MOVE INTO SRN AREAS LATER TDA. PRCP AMOUNTS
WILL BE LGT...USED A BLEND OF RFC/HPC QPF. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE 60S EXCEPT 50S ALONG THE COAST DUE TO ONSHORE MARINE FLOW AND
LACK OF MUCH SUNSHINE. BEST CHC TO HIT 70 ACTUALLY OVER NRN NH
WHERE THEY MAY SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
AFTER THE EARLY MORNING F BURNS OFF AND BEFORE FRONTAL CLOUDS
ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA WHILE THE WRM FNT MOVES IN
FROM THE SW AND THE CANADIAN CD FNT FROM THE NW. THE CD FNT
ACTUALLY PUSHES S INTO THE REGION AS THE WRM FNT STALLS OUT. THIS
SCENARIO SHOULD GIVE US LOTS OF CLOUDS AND AT LEAST SCT SHRA. AS
THE CD FNT DROPS IN FROM THE N IT WILL BRING AN END TO PRCP OVER
NRN AREAS ON MONDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CONT AS MARINE AIR
HELPS MOISTEN LOW LEVELS AND CREATES AREAS OF F...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL AND ADJACENT INTERIOR AREAS. USED A BLEND OF RFC/HPC QPF.
USED BLEND OF NAM/GFS AND MET/MAV MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NUMERICALS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH
LATE NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY A FLAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST AND LEAVES THE FORECAST AREA IN
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER...FALLING
HEIGHTS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SOME DEGREE OF EASTERN TROUGH
EMERGES. WITH MEAN JET AXIS OVERHEAD OR NEARBY...THE AREA FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRAVEL
EASTWARD ALONG A BOUNDARY SEPARATING SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH FROM EARLY
SPRING CHILL.

IN THE DAILIES...UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH IFR/MVFR
CIG ...GENERALLY FROM 500 TO 2000 FEET... FROM STRATUS OVER SE NH
AND SW AND COASTAL ME ZONES... INCLUDING PSM, CON, PWM. RKD AND
AUG TAFS. SOME RADIATION F OVER INT SECTIONS MAY IMPACT HIE AND
LEB. COMPLEX WX PATTERN BRINGS CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHRA TO THE
REGION THRU THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD WITH STRATUS LIFTING TDA
BUT RETURNING TNGT ALONG WITH PATCHY F.

LONG TERM...

TUE - THU...AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...WILL UPDATE TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA WHICH WILL RESULT IN NO MORE THAN A FEW TWEAKS TO
THE PREVIOUS FCST. TSTMS OVER THE OCEAN ARE JUST BEYOND THE
COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING TO THE SE AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS
SO NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR MARINE ZONES. ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH WINDS STAYING BELOW SCA
LEVELS WHILE SEAS SLOWLY BUILD...MOST LIKELY REACHING SCA LEVELS
LATE TNGT AND MONDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS AND PERHAPS NEARING THE
5 FT CRITERIA OVER THE BAYS ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE THREAT OF SHRA AND HIGHER RH VALUES ALONG WITH GREEN UP
CONTINUING TO OCCUR EXPECT FIRE WX DANGER TO BE LOW THRU THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KBOX 190837
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
437 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING A DRY AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS INTO MOST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE BEFORE RETREATING BACK AS A WARM FRONT
ON WED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TUE AFTERNOON IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND OVER
MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COOLER AND
LESS HUMID AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
320 AM UPDATE...

PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING
BUT LOW CLOUD DECK OVER COASTAL ME/NH PUSHED BACK INTO
MANCHESTER...LAWRENCE AND BEVERLY. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THAT
IS ABOUT AS FAR S AS IT WILL GET BEFORE IT BEGINS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE BY MID MORNING.

STILL NOT SEEING MUCH IN WAY OF SHOWERS TO OUR SW AS ACTIVITY OVER
NJ IS PIVOTING OFFSHORE. HIGH RES MODELS ARE INSISTENT WE WILL
SEE DEVELOPMENT INTO HUDSON VALLEY AND CT BEFORE DAYBREAK.
RAP/HRRR BRING SHOWERS TO CT VALLEY BY 8 AM AND TO REST OF AREA
BEFORE NOON. NOT SEEING MUCH SUPPORT FOR THAT TO OCCUR BASED UPON
RADAR MOSAIC SO WE CONTINUED WITH SLOWER TREND SHOWN BY 00Z NAM...
NAMELY ANY SHOWERS HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. ANY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

TEMPS ARE A CHALLENGE TODAY WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM QUICKLY THIS MORNING BEFORE SKIES CLOUD
OVER AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW WARMEST
TEMPS ACROSS RI/EASTERN MA /UPPER 60S/ AND USED A NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND AS CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH REGION TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY FEW SHOWERS.
DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG AS MAIN FORCING MECHANISM APPEARS
TO BE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT/RI/SE MA
WHERE WE EXPECT GREATEST COVERAGE. MODELS DO SHOW MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND MEAGER CAPE SO INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER...AGAIN
MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO S COAST. HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ON
S/SW WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE PATCHY FOG FORMATION.

ALTHOUGH FRONT REMAINS TO OUR N MON...CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY
OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MEANS CLOUD COVER WILL BE TOUGH TO
BREAK...ESPECIALLY NEAR S COAST WHERE SW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN DEEPER
MARINE LAYER. MODELS DIFFER IN COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT IT APPEARS WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS INTERIOR THROUGHOUT DAY.

EXPECT WARMER/MORE HUMID DAY BUT NOT QUITE SURE WE CAN REACH
LOWER 80S AS INDICATED BY GFS MOS. TONED BACK A BIT BY BLENDING
NAM MOS AND 2M TEMPERATURES WHICH YIELDS HIGHS IN MID-UPPER 70S
EXCEPT 60S AROUND CAPE COD/ISLANDS WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

HIGHLIGHTS...
* BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL REDUCE HUMIDITY AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
  EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY ON TUE
* WARM AND HUMID WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS WED AFTERNOON
  THRU AT LEAST THU NIGHT
* COOLER AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED FOR THE COMING WEEKEND

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PAINT A CONSISTENT SYNOPTIC SCALE PICTURE FOR
TUE THRU THU BUT STILL DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE TIMING AND
DISTRIBUTION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY. BOTH 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
MODELS SUGGEST A BACKDOOR INTRUSION OF DRY AIR ON TUE INTO WED
MORNING THRU ALL EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE FRONT
LIFTS BACK NE DURING WED AFTERNOON. THUS FOR TUE WILL RELEGATE
CHANCE SHOWERS/TSTMS JUST TO SW ZONES. THEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
OPERATIONAL RUNS AND THE PRIOR RUN ENSEMBLES DIVERGE ON CHARACTER
OF EASTERN TROF THAT WILL FLUSH OUT THE AIR MASS LATE IN THE WEEK.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A CONSOLIDATED NORTHERN
STREAM TROF DRIVING A COLD FRONT THRU THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING.
THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN AND ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEP A NOTABLE CHUNK OF
ENERGY SOUTH OF THE MAIN STREAM NORTHERN FLOW AND RESULTS IN THE
SPIN UP OF A SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND WET DAY FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRI.

TUE-WED...WILL INDICATE SCT SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT TSTMS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD AND SW OF A EEN-ORH-EWB LINE GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BACKDOOR AIR MASS TO EASE INTO OUR NE ZONES.

THE TREND FOR BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS TO BRING A BACKDOOR
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR INTO THE REGION ON TUE LENDS GREATER
CONFIDENCE THAT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TUE WILL LIKELY BE RESTRICTED
TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY AREA. HAVE ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER ALONG THE E COAST. THUS FOR EASTERN MA
AND RI TUE NO LONGER LOOKS TO BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY.

WED...THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS ADVANCES BACK NE AND SO DOES
THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

THU...RELATIVELY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. ANTICIPATING RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR THU AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW STRONG/SEVERE
TSTMS LATE THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOST LIKELY WESTERN HALF OF
AREA GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVE AND FRONT. RAISED POPS TO
HIGH CHANCE LATE THU AND THU NIGHT.

FRI...HAVE RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS DAY DUE TO MODEL
DISPARITY IN HANDLING THE CONFIGURATION OF THE EASTERN TROF
ENERGY. FOR NOW...PLAN TO HAVE SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST FRI MORNING
FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAT
PERSIST OVER THE SE ZONES...OR AT LEAST THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...TO
PERSIST TO AT LEAST FRI EVENING. IN ESSENCE AM LEANING TOWARD
ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY CONSISTENT AND SEEMS
TO BE FAVORED BY WPC. THE GFS HAS...HOWEVER...BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN ITS SOLUTION AND THE OPERATIONAL RUN IS SUPPORTED BY
ITS ENSEMBLES SO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THAT OUT. IF INDEED A
SURFACE LOW WERE TO DEVELOP AS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS...WE COULD
SEE WINDS APPROACHING MARGINAL GALES ON THE WATER AND A RISK FOR
SOME COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE LATE FRI EVENING HIGH TIDE...WHICH
IS QUITE HIGH ASTRONOMICALLY TO BEGIN WITH. THAT DOES NOT SEEM TO
BE THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON IT.

SAT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A COOL DRY AIR MASS
DOMINATING THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

IFR CIGS ALONG ME/NH COAST AND INTO MHT/LWM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP MUCH FARTHER S EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD ERODE TOWARD
DAYBREAK AS THIS DECK OF LOW CIGS BEGINS TO PUSH OFFSHORE.
OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AOA 080 EXPECTED THIS MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY
LOWERING TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON FROM SW TO NE.

S/SW GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD BE LIMITED TO S
COAST TODAY. DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE ALONG E MA COAST BUT IF IT
WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD BE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON PERIOD OF SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON BAF/BDL
WHICH SHIFTS TO RI/MA COASTS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS NEAR S COAST TONIGHT...WHERE ISOLATED THUNDER IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

ALTHOUGH SHOWERS EXIT BEFORE DAYBREAK...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/
THUNDER MAY REDEVELOP DURING DAY TUE AS WARM FRONT LIFTS TO OUR N.
APPEARS COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST...WITH INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAVING BEST CHANCE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN N OF AIRPORT /LWM-BVY/ EARLY THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED
FEW008 AS A HEADS UP. NOT CONFIDENT SEA BREEZE WILL OCCUR BUT IF
IT DOES IT WOULD BE 16Z-19Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
PRIOR TO 12Z BUT NOT CONFIDENT IT WILL OCCUR GIVEN HIGHER CIGS
ACROSS NYC METROS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUE...SCT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS CT
VALLEY...VFR ELSEWHERE.

WED...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT
TSTMS.

THU...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH FOG AND STRATUS IN THE MORNING
AND THEN AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG TSTMS LATE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS/FLAT SEAS
TODAY. COULD SEE FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM
FRONT APPROACHES.

INCREASING S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT AND MON AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING SLOWLY BUILDING SEAS TO
OUTER WATERS WHERE CURRENT SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO MON. ADDED
RI/BLOCK IS SOUNDS TO SCA AS WELL...AND BUZZARDS BAY/VINEYARD
SOUND WHERE SW WINDS WILL CREATE STEEP WAVES DURING TIMES OF
DEPARTING TIDE /HIGH TIDE 355 AM AND 437 PM MON AT NEW BEDFORD/.

SHOULD ALSO SEE PERIOD OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER TONIGHT AND
MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY MON. PATCHY DENSE FOG PROBABLE
AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A LEFT OVER SWELL AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 7 FT LIKELY TUE...SUBSIDING
WED. BUILDING SEAS LIKELY THU AS SW FLOW STRENGTHENS. AREAS OF
FOG LIKELY WED NIGHT THRU THU. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LEVELS LATE
THU AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
     TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...JWD/THOMPSON
MARINE...JWD/THOMPSON

000
FXUS61 KGYX 190742
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
342 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OUT TO SEA AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES DRIFTS OUT TO SEA TDA. A WRM FNT MOVES IN FROM THE SW
WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A CD FNT IS PRESSING SE FROM CANADA. THIS
WILL CONT ONSHORE FLOW TDA WITH LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVER SE NH AND
SW AND COASTAL ME SLOW TO LIFT TDA. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS MIDDAY.
THERE IS ALSO A BATCH OF -SHRA MOVING SE FROM THE MID AND SW COAST
OF ME TO THE GULF OF MAINE. THESE -SHRA KEEP REGENERATING NEAR THE
COAST AND MOVE OFFSHORE. WILL SHOW A CHC OF PRCP THIS AREA FOR A
WHILE THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE PATCHY VALLEY F AS TEMPS HAVE
COOLED CLOSE TO DEW POINTS UNDER MOSTLY CLR SKIES WITH LGT WINDS.
THE APPROACHING FRONTS WILL BRING IN CLOUDS N AND CENTRAL WHILE
ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA MOVE INTO SRN AREAS LATER TDA. PRCP AMOUNTS
WILL BE LGT...USED A BLEND OF RFC/HPC QPF. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE 60S EXCEPT 50S ALONG THE COAST DUE TO ONSHORE MARINE FLOW AND
LACK OF MUCH SUNSHINE. BEST CHC TO HIT 70 ACTUALLY OVER NRN NH
WHERE THEY MAY SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
AFTER THE EARLY MORNING F BURNS OFF AND BEFORE FRONTAL CLOUDS
ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA WHILE THE WRM FNT MOVES IN
FROM THE SW AND THE CANADIAN CD FNT FROM THE NW. THE CD FNT
ACTUALLY PUSHES S INTO THE REGION AS THE WRM FNT STALLS OUT. THIS
SCENARIO SHOULD GIVE US LOTS OF CLOUDS AND AT LEAST SCT SHRA. AS
THE CD FNT DROPS IN FROM THE N IT WILL BRING AN END TO PRCP OVER
NRN AREAS ON MONDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CONT AS MARINE AIR
HELPS MOISTEN LOW LEVELS AND CREATES AREAS OF F...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL AND ADJACENT INTERIOR AREAS. USED A BLEND OF RFC/HPC QPF.
USED BLEND OF NAM/GFS AND MET/MAV MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NUMERICALS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH
LATE NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY A FLAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST AND LEAVES THE FORECAST AREA IN
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER...FALLING
HEIGHTS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SOME DEGREE OF EASTERN TROUGH
EMERGES. WITH MEAN JET AXIS OVERHEAD OR NEARBY...THE AREA FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRAVEL
EASTWARD ALONG A BOUNDARY SEPARATING SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH FROM EARLY
SPRING CHILL.

IN THE DAILIES...UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH IFR/PSBL
LIFR CIG FROM STRATUS OVER SE NH AND SW AND COASTAL ME ZONES...
INCLUDING PSM, CON, PWM. RKD AND AUG TAFS. SOME RADIATION F OVER
INT SECTIONS MAY IMPACT HIE AND LEB. COMPLEX WX PATTERN BRINGS
CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHRA TO THE REGION THRU THE SHORT TERM FCST
PERIOD WITH STRATUS LIFTING TDA BUT RETURNING TNGT ALONG WITH
PATCHY F.

LONG TERM...

TUE - THU...AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THRU THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH WINDS STAYING BELOW SCA LEVELS WHILE SEAS
SLOWLY BUILD...MOST LIKELY REACHING SCA LEVELS LATE TNGT AND
MONDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS AND PERHAPS NEARING THE 5 FT CRITERIA
OVER THE BAYS ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE THREAT OF SHRA AND HIGHER RH VALUES ALONG WITH GREEN UP
CONTINUING TO OCCUR EXPECT FIRE WX DANGER TO BE LOW THRU THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KBOX 190720
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
320 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
320 AM UPDATE...

PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING
BUT LOW CLOUD DECK OVER COASTAL ME/NH PUSHED BACK INTO
MANCHESTER...LAWRENCE AND BEVERLY. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THAT
IS ABOUT AS FAR S AS IT WILL GET BEFORE IT BEGINS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE BY MID MORNING.

STILL NOT SEEING MUCH IN WAY OF SHOWERS TO OUR SW AS ACTIVITY OVER
NJ IS PIVOTING OFFSHORE. HIGH RES MODELS ARE INSISTENT WE WILL
SEE DEVELOPMENT INTO HUDSON VALLEY AND CT BEFORE DAYBREAK.
RAP/HRRR BRING SHOWERS TO CT VALLEY BY 8 AM AND TO REST OF AREA
BEFORE NOON. NOT SEEING MUCH SUPPORT FOR THAT TO OCCUR BASED UPON
RADAR MOSAIC SO WE CONTINUED WITH SLOWER TREND SHOWN BY 00Z NAM...
NAMELY ANY SHOWERS HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. ANY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

TEMPS ARE A CHALLENGE TODAY WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM QUICKLY THIS MORNING BEFORE SKIES CLOUD
OVER AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW WARMEST
TEMPS ACROSS RI/EASTERN MA /UPPER 60S/ AND USED A NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND AS CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH REGION TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY FEW SHOWERS.
DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG AS MAIN FORCING MECHANISM APPEARS
TO BE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT/RI/SE MA
WHERE WE EXPECT GREATEST COVERAGE. MODELS DO SHOW MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND MEAGER CAPE SO INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER...AGAIN
MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO S COAST. HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ON
S/SW WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE PATCHY FOG FORMATION.

ALTHOUGH FRONT REMAINS TO OUR N MON...CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY
OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MEANS CLOUD COVER WILL BE TOUGH TO
BREAK...ESPECIALLY NEAR S COAST WHERE SW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN DEEPER
MARINE LAYER. MODELS DIFFER IN COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT IT APPEARS WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS INTERIOR THROUGHOUT DAY.

EXPECT WARMER/MORE HUMID DAY BUT NOT QUITE SURE WE CAN REACH
LOWER 80S AS INDICATED BY GFS MOS. TONED BACK A BIT BY BLENDING
NAM MOS AND 2M TEMPERATURES WHICH YIELDS HIGHS IN MID-UPPER 70S
EXCEPT 60S AROUND CAPE COD/ISLANDS WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  WARM AND HUMID WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THRU AT LEAST THU

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
18/12Z LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
MID TERM PERIOD...BUT THEN STRUGGLES WITH THE MERGING /OR NON-
MERGING/ OF A SPLIT FLOW REGIME TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
GIVEN THE AGREEMENT THAT THE CONVERGENT REGION OF THESE TWO
STREAMS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE MID TERM...WILL USE A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND TO BASELINE FORECAST. FOR THE TAIL END OF THE LONG
TERM...WILL LIKELY LEAN AWAY FROM THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUN...AS
IT GENERATES A VERY DEEP MEANDERING CUTOFF IN NRN NEW ENGLAND
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE WELL INTO
/AND POSSIBLY BEYOND/ THE WEEKEND. IN ANY CASE...WITH CONVERGENT
STREAMS ALOFT THROUGH THE MID TERM...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY...BUT AS WAS NOTED...IT SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT...
SFC WARM FRONT SHIFTS INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND WITH TIME...ALLOWING
MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND TO BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
DIURNAL HEATING TO YIELD SOME DAYTIME -SHRA...PARTICULARLY OVER
SRN NH AN NRN MA. SOUNDINGS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE DURING
THE DAY...SO WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WITH
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND DWPTS IN THE UPPER
50S...CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO FEEL MUGGY.

TUE INTO WED...
THE WARM FRONT IN NRN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SINK S OF THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. ON TUE...THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE /PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HEAT/ EXPECT
SOME DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE SOME EARLY DAY
CLOUD BREAKS AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. COOLING UPPER LVLS
AS HIGH PRES NOSES IN FROM THE N SUGGEST A RISE IN K/TT AND LI/S
DIPPING TO 0 TO NEGATIVE VALUES. SHEAR IS NOT
GREAT...PARTICULARLY THROUGH H85...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
UPDRAFTS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THUNDER FOR TUE. ON
WED...WEAK EARLY DAY RIDGING WILL LIKELY YIELD A PARTLY CLOUDY
START TO THE DAY UNTIL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRES SLIDES TO
THE NE. GIVEN THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...EARLY CLEARING AND
INCREASING MOISTURE...MAY SEE ANOTHER DAY WITH THE THREAT FOR
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE W AS A SECONDARY WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR ON WED TOO POSSIBLY...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A THUNDER THREAT ON WED AS WELL.

THU AND FRI...
TRICKY FORECAST HERE AS IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY NRN
STREAM JET ENERGY SINKS S FROM QUEBEC AND ONTARIO. THIS WILL
DICTATE HOW QUICKLY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AND THEIR SFC LOW PRES
WAVES WILL AFFECT THE REGION. IN ANY CASE...THE WET WX CONTINUES
ALTHOUGH A BIT MORE STABLE THAN TUE AND WED. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MODELS IN HOW THE NRN STREAM WORKS OUT...EXACT TIMING FOR
ANY OF THESE WAVES REMAINS A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK. ONCE
AGAIN...IT WILL LIKELY NOT RAIN EVERYDAY...BUT THERE IS THE THREAT
FOR AT LEAST -SHRA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE WEEKEND...
THE SRN STREAM RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE THE NRN STREAM LONGWAVE TROF
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION TO MORE
DRY WX WILL BE LIKELY SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

IFR CIGS ALONG ME/NH COAST AND INTO MHT/LWM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP MUCH FARTHER S EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD ERODE TOWARD
DAYBREAK AS THIS DECK OF LOW CIGS BEGINS TO PUSH OFFSHORE.
OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AOA 080 EXPECTED THIS MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY
LOWERING TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON FROM SW TO NE.

S/SW GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD BE LIMITED TO S
COAST TODAY. DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE ALONG E MA COAST BUT IF IT
WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD BE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON PERIOD OF SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON BAF/BDL
WHICH SHIFTS TO RI/MA COASTS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS NEAR S COAST TONIGHT...WHERE ISOLATED THUNDER IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

ALTHOUGH SHOWERS EXIT BEFORE DAYBREAK...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/
THUNDER MAY REDEVELOP DURING DAY TUE AS WARM FRONT LIFTS TO OUR N.
APPEARS COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST...WITH INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAVING BEST CHANCE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN N OF AIRPORT /LWM-BVY/ EARLY THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED
FEW008 AS A HEADS UP. NOT CONFIDENT SEA BREEZE WILL OCCUR BUT IF
IT DOES IT WOULD BE 16Z-19Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
PRIOR TO 12Z BUT NOT CONFIDENT IT WILL OCCUR GIVEN HIGHER CIGS
ACROSS NYC METROS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAINLY VFR/MVFR DURING THE DAYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR IN
ANY DAYTIME SHOWERS OR OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT MAINLY
MVFR/IFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN A MIX OF FOG AND LOW
STRATUS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST.

IN SUM...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS/FLAT SEAS
TODAY. COULD SEE FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM
FRONT APPROACHES.

INCREASING S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT AND MON AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING SLOWLY BUILDING SEAS TO
OUTER WATERS WHERE CURRENT SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO MON. ADDED
RI/BLOCK IS SOUNDS TO SCA AS WELL...AND BUZZARDS BAY/VINEYARD
SOUND WHERE SW WINDS WILL CREATE STEEP WAVES DURING TIMES OF
DEPARTING TIDE /HIGH TIDE 355 AM AND 437 PM MON AT NEW BEDFORD/.

SHOULD ALSO SEE PERIOD OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER TONIGHT AND
MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY MON. PATCHY DENSE FOG PROBABLE
AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ALSO...A COMBINATION OF SHOWERS AND FOG WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...LINGERING SWELL ALONG THE SRN WATERS AND ERN
OUTER WATERS GRADUALLY SUBSIDES THROUGH TUE. WILL LIKELY NEED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS INTO THE DAY TUE.

WED AND WED NIGHT...SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

THU...AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W. EXPECT GRADUALLY BUILDING
SEAS...WHICH MAY REACH 5-7 FT DURING THE DAY THU. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
     TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...JWD/THOMPSON
MARINE...JWD/THOMPSON

000
FXUS61 KGYX 190441
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1241 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH IT. ON AND OFF AGAIN
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED TO INCREASE SKY COVER OVER SE NH AND EXTREME SW ME PER
LATEST SATELLITE AND MTR REPORTS SHOWING MARINE STRATUS DECK
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY SPREAD INLAND. CLOUD DECK HAS PUSHED INTO
CON, PSM, DAW AND SFM...BUT NOT INTO PWM OR IZG YET. A BATCH OF
-SHRA MOVED THRU THE PWM AREA AN HOUR OR TWO AGO BUT IS NOW
OFFSHORE AND CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE SE...SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY
WX THOUGH PATCHY F LIKELY TO FORM ALONG THE NH AND EXTREME SW ME
COAST OVERNIGHT AND MAY PUSH INLAND AS THE MARINE AIR CONTINUES TO
SURGE INLAND. ELSEWHERE SOME CLOUDS AROUND BUT NO STRATUS OR F
EXPECTED. HAVE TWEAKED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON
LATEST TEMP/DEW POINT/SKY COVER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE FORECAST GETS SOMEWHAT INTERESTING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS WIDELY DIFFER WITH POPS, TIMING, AND LOCATION OF MINOR
S/WAVES AND ALSO QPF. WILL ASSUME THE GFS IS OVERPLAYING CONVECTION
MOVING THRU THE DIRTY RIDGE AND ALSO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHWRS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL PREFER THE SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE
DRIER NAM AND ALSO LOWER POPS SO MADE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY.
USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS GUID FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT A FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE EXACT LOCATION
AND TIMING OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL
AFFECT TIMING OF PRECIP AS WELL AS WIND DIRECTION. FOR NOW HAVE
USED THE ECMWF. THIS RESULTS IN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A BETTER THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ONSHORE
FLOW MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST. A MORE
ORGANIZED LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES PAST THE AREA EXPECT DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...STRATUS DECK BETWEEN 500 AND
1500 FEET CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK INLAND ACROSS SE NH AND EXTREME
SW ME AT THIS TIME...HAVING REACHED PSM, DAW, CON AND SFM...BUT
NOT YET INTO PWM, AUG OR IZG. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONT TO SLOWLY
SPREAD INLAND THRU THE NGT. SOME F MAY FORM TO ALSO LOWER VSBY
BUT MAIN CONCERN IS THE LOW CIG. LEB AND HIE TAF SITES ON OTHER
SIDE OF HIGH TERRAIN MAY NOT SEE THE LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
A BETTER CHC OF STAYING VFR.

WHERE THE STRATUS AND F DEVELOPS TONIGHT...THERE IS SOME QUESTION
AS TO WHETHER THESE TAF SITES CAN IMPROVE TO VFR ON SUNDAY...GIVEN
WEAK ONSHORE SE FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENT THINKING
IS THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT...BUT WHETHER CIGS GET TO VFR IS
UNCERTAIN. ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE A CHC OF IFR CIG/VSBY IN ISOLD
TO SCT -SHRA LATE SUNDAY AFTN AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDE SPREAD DUE TO A STALLED FRONT
AND AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. AN ONSHORE FLOW
COULD PROMOTE FOG ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...WILL UPDATE TO
INCREASE ONSHORE WINDS A BIT OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT CONT KEEP
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU THE SHORT TERM. STILL EXPECT
SOME PATCHY F OVER WRN WATERS OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...
WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE VARIABLE DUE TO THE LOCATION OF A STALLED
FRONT. EXPECT THEM TO TURN ONSHORE BY MID WEEK. AREAS OF FOG MAY
FORM. WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEY WILL APPROACH SCA LEVELS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL BE FAIRLY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS GREEN UP CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY BUT OFF THE
OCEAN WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHER RH VALUES PUSHING INLAND.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE SUNDAY. THERE WILL
BE A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS DURING THE WORK WEEK WHICH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH RH VALUES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KGYX 190207
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1007 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH IT. ON AND OFF AGAIN
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...PATCH OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER SW ME AND SE
NH. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR THIS SPREADS OVERNIGHT. MESO MODELS
ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT THE STRATUS DOES SPREAD...BUT THEY COVER
DIFFERENT AREAS. FOR NOW...THINK THAT IT WILL LIKLY SPREAD N AND E
ALONG THE FIRST CUT OF UPSLOPE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST...AND
HAVE BROUGHT BKN-OVC INTO THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...JUST A
FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND POPS.

740 PM UPDATE...SHRA WILL MOSTLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET... A FEW
SPKLS REMAIN [POSSIBLE THRU THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
TERRAIN OF FRANKLIN/SOMERSET COUNTIES AS WEAK SFC AND LOW LVL
BOUNDARY HANGS IN PLACE. ALSO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LOW STRATUS
AND FOG DEVELOPING ON THE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING
IT AND A PATCH HAS DEVELOPED OVER COASTAL YORK COUNTY S INTO
PORTSMOUTH. WITH TDS OVER THE WATER AROUND 50...AND ONLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NOT FAR INLAND...AND WEAK SE FLOW...COULD SEE
IT DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVE.

PREVIOUSLY...A DRY AND COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. THE WDLY SCT AFTN INSBLTY CLDS AND SPRINKLES WILL COME TO
AN END AFTER SS FOLLOWED BY P/C CONDS. OVERNIGHT MINS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MTNS TO MID 40S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST GETS SOMEWHAT INTERESTING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS WIDELY DIFFER WITH POPS, TIMING, AND LOCATION OF MINOR
S/WVES AND ALSO QPF. WILL ASSUME THE GFS IS OVERPLAYING CONVECTION
MOVING THRU THE DIRTY RIDGE AND ALSO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHWRS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL PREFER THE SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE
DRIER NAM AND ALSO LOWER POPS SO MADE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY.
USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS GUID FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT A FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE EXACT LOCATION
AND TIMING OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL
AFFECT TIMING OF PRECIP AS WELL AS WIND DIRECTION. FOR NOW HAVE
USED THE ECMWF. THIS RESULTS IN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A BETTER THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ONSHORE
FLOW MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST. A MORE
ORGANIZED LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES PAST THE AREA EXPECT DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...2340Z UPDATE...CONDS FOR LOW STRATUS AND SOME FOG ARE
COMING TOGETHER THIS EVE...AND HAVE ADDED TO MOST OF THE
TERMINALS. SOME HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED IN KPSM AND ALONG THE SW ME
COAST. WHERE THIS ST/FG DEVELOPS TONIGHT...THERE IS SOME QUESTION
AS TO WHETHER THE COASTAL TERMINALS CAN IMPROVE TO VFR ON
SUNDAY...GIVEN WEAK SE FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENT
THINKING IS THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT...BUT WHETHER CIGS GET
TO VFR IS UNCERTAIN. ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE A CHC OF IFR CIG/VSBY
IN ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA LATE SUNDAY AFTN AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDE SPREAD DUE TO A STALLED FRONT
AND AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. AN ONSHORE FLOW
COULD PROMOTE FOG ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A LIGHT SE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TNGT AND INCREASES
SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT
SLOWLY INCREASES. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CONDS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...
WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE VARIABLE DUE TO THE LOCATION OF A STALLED
FRONT. EXPECT THEM TO TURN ONSHORE BY MID WEEK. AREAS OF FOG MAY
FORM. WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEY WILL APPROACH SCA LEVELS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL BE FAIRLY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS GREEN UP CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY BUT OFF THE OCEAN WHICH
WILL RESULT IN HIGHER RH VALUES PUSHING INLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHC
OF SHOWERS DURING THE WORK WEEK WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
FAIRLY HIGH RH VALUES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...

000
FXUS61 KBOX 190100
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
900 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUN
NIGHT...PROBABLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN STALL OVER NEW YORK
AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMER...MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL AS POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
9 PM UPDATE...

PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. MUCH OF LOWER CLOUD COVER HAS DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE WILL SEE
MORE LOW CLOUDS REFORM OVERNIGHT. NOT SURE THIS WILL BE CASE AS
THERE ISN/T MUCH BEING OBSERVED TO OUR SW WHERE MODELS HAVE IT
NOW. AS A RESULT WE WILL REMAIN MORE OPTIMISTIC AND HOLD OFF ON
ANY CLOUDS/SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST LOWS IN 40S/LOWER 50S ARE ON TRACK. COULD SEE TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.  THIS WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.  THERE STILL WILL PROBABLY
BE A FEW PEEKS OF SUN AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...BUT THE OVERALL
TREND WILL BE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  HIGH TEMPS ARE TRICKY AND
WILL DEPEND UPON JUST HOW QUICKLY SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY.  WE
BLENDED THE COOLER GFSMOS GUIDANCE WITH THE MUCH MILDER METMOS.
BEST CHANCE OF THE MILDEST READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE MERRIMACK
VALLEY...AWAY FROM THE COAST AND WHERE SKIES WILL BE SLOWER TO
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY. WILL RANGE HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND
70...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO MAKE TWEAKS OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...BETTER FOCUS/FORCING/MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.  THEREFORE...EXPECT MOST OF THE DAY
WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  WARM ADVECTION MAY STILL RESULT IN A FEW
SPOT SHOWERS AT TIMES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES.
THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL
ACROSS MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MID LEVEL FORCING/DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO NOT
EXPECTING A LOT OF RAINFALL.  HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.  CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...BUT INDICES WERE TOO
MARGINAL TO INSERT AT THIS POINT.

MAY ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
OVERSPREAD THE REGION.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S GIVEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  WARM AND HUMID WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THRU AT LEAST THU

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
18/12Z LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
MID TERM PERIOD...BUT THEN STRUGGLES WITH THE MERGING /OR NON-
MERGING/ OF A SPLIT FLOW REGIME TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
GIVEN THE AGREEMENT THAT THE CONVERGENT REGION OF THESE TWO
STREAMS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE MID TERM...WILL USE A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND TO BASELINE FORECAST. FOR THE TAIL END OF THE LONG
TERM...WILL LIKELY LEAN AWAY FROM THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUN...AS
IT GENERATES A VERY DEEP MEANDERING CUTOFF IN NRN NEW ENGLAND
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE WELL INTO
/AND POSSIBLY BEYOND/ THE WEEKEND. IN ANY CASE...WITH CONVERGENT
STREAMS ALOFT THROUGH THE MID TERM...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY...BUT AS WAS NOTED...IT SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT.

DETAILS...

MON INTO MON NIGHT...
SFC WARM FRONT SHIFTS INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND WITH TIME...ALLOWING
MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND TO BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
DIURNAL HEATING TO YIELD SOME DAYTIME -SHRA...PARTICULARLY OVER
SRN NH AN NRN MA. SOUNDINGS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE DURING
THE DAY...SO WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WITH
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND DWPTS IN THE UPPER
50S...CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO FEEL MUGGY.

TUE INTO WED...
THE WARM FRONT IN NRN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SINK S OF THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. ON TUE...THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE /PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HEAT/ EXPECT
SOME DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE SOME EARLY DAY
CLOUD BREAKS AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. COOLING UPPER LVLS
AS HIGH PRES NOSES IN FROM THE N SUGGEST A RISE IN K/TT AND LI/S
DIPPING TO 0 TO NEGATIVE VALUES. SHEAR IS NOT
GREAT...PARTICULARLY THROUGH H85...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
UPDRAFTS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THUNDER FOR TUE. ON
WED...WEAK EARLY DAY RIDGING WILL LIKELY YIELD A PARTLY CLOUDY
START TO THE DAY UNTIL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRES SLIDES TO
THE NE. GIVEN THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...EARLY CLEARING AND
INCREASING MOISTURE...MAY SEE ANOTHER DAY WITH THE THREAT FOR
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE W AS A SECONDARY WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR ON WED TOO POSSIBLY...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A THUNDER THREAT ON WED AS WELL.

THU AND FRI...
TRICKY FORECAST HERE AS IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY NRN
STREAM JET ENERGY SINKS S FROM QUEBEC AND ONTARIO. THIS WILL
DICTATE HOW QUICKLY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AND THEIR SFC LOW PRES
WAVES WILL AFFECT THE REGION. IN ANY CASE...THE WET WX CONTINUES
ALTHOUGH A BIT MORE STABLE THAN TUE AND WED. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MODELS IN HOW THE NRN STREAM WORKS OUT...EXACT TIMING FOR
ANY OF THESE WAVES REMAINS A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK. ONCE
AGAIN...IT WILL LIKELY NOT RAIN EVERYDAY...BUT THERE IS THE THREAT
FOR AT LEAST -SHRA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE WEEKEND...
THE SRN STREAM RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE THE NRN STREAM LONGWAVE TROF
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION TO MORE
DRY WX WILL BE LIKELY SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TONIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.


OVERNIGHT...
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN SOME MVFR CIGS ARRIVING IN THE CT VALLEY TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

SUN...
CONTINUED WITH OPTIMISTIC FORECASTING SUGGESTING THE MVFR CIGS
TAKE UNTIL MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON TO ARRIVE IN THE
INTERIOR...HOLDING OFF UNTIL EVENING FOR EASTERN TERMINALS.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY VFR TO START...WITH A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND
THROUGH THE DAY.

SUN NIGHT...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR IN A MIX OF FOG AND SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE
DAY TOMORROW. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF MVFR BY SUN
EVENING...THEN IFR BY OVERNIGHT IN FOG/SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO ARRIVE AT TERMINAL BY SUN MORNING. IT
APPEARS BEST CHANCE WILL BE MID DAY ONWARD SUN. THEREFORE...VFR
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE INTO THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAINLY VFR/MVFR DURING THE DAYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR IN
ANY DAYTIME SHOWERS OR OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT MAINLY
MVFR/IFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN A MIX OF FOG AND LOW
STRATUS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST.

IN SUM...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO GENERATE LONG SOUTHWEST
FETCH INTO THE SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO
SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE
HOISTED SCA HEADLINES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THIS REGION. SCA
HEADLINES MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED INTO SOME OF THE SOUTHERN
SOUNDS...BUT SINCE ITS A 3RD PERIOD EVENT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO DO AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ALSO...A COMBINATION OF SHOWERS AND FOG WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MON INTO TUE...LINGERING SWELL ALONG THE SRN WATERS AND ERN OUTER
WATERS GRADUALLY SUBSIDES THROUGH TUE. WILL LIKELY NEED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS INTO THE DAY TUE.

WED AND WED NIGHT...SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

THU...AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W. EXPECT GRADUALLY BUILDING
SEAS...WHICH MAY REACH 5-7 FT DURING THE DAY THU. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM SUNDAY TO 8
     AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 8
     AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY

000
FXUS61 KGYX 182346
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
746 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH IT. ON AND OFF AGAIN
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
740 PM UPDATE...SHRA WILL MOSTLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET... A FEW
SPKLS REMAIN [POSSIBLE THRU THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
TERRAIN OF FRANKLIN/SOMERSET COUNTIES AS WEAK SFC AND LOW LVL
BOUNDARY HANGS IN PLACE. ALSO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LOW STRATUS
AND FOG DEVELOPING ON THE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING
IT AND A PATCH HAS DEVELOPED OVER COASTAL YORK COUNTY S INTO
PORTSMOUTH. WITH TDS OVER THE WATER AROUND 50...AND ONLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NOT FAR INLAND...AND WEAK SE FLOW...COULD SEE
IT DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVE.

PREVIOUSLY...A DRY AND COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. THE WDLY SCT AFTN INSBLTY CLDS AND SPRINKLES WILL COME TO
AN END AFTER SS FOLLOWED BY P/C CONDS. OVERNIGHT MINS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MTNS TO MID 40S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST GETS SOMEWHAT INTERESTING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS WIDELY DIFFER WITH POPS, TIMING, AND LOCATION OF MINOR
S/WVES AND ALSO QPF. WILL ASSUME THE GFS IS OVERPLAYING CONVECTION
MOVING THRU THE DIRTY RIDGE AND ALSO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHWRS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL PREFER THE SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE
DRIER NAM AND ALSO LOWER POPS SO MADE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY.
USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS GUID FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT A FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE EXACT LOCATION
AND TIMING OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL
AFFECT TIMING OF PRECIP AS WELL AS WIND DIRECTION. FOR NOW HAVE
USED THE ECMWF. THIS RESULTS IN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A BETTER THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ONSHORE
FLOW MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST. A MORE
ORGANIZED LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES PAST THE AREA EXPECT DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...2340Z UPDATE...CONDS FOR LOW STRATUS AND SOME FOG ARE
COMING TOGETHER THIS EVE...AND HAVE ADDED TO MOST OF THE
TERMINALS. SOME HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED IN KPSM AND ALONG THE SW ME
COAST. WHERE THIS ST/FG DEVELOPS TONIGHT...THERE IS SOME QUESTION
AS TO WHETHER THE COASTAL TERMINALS CAN IMPROVE TO VFR ON
SUNDAY...GIVEN WEAK SE FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENT
THINKING IS THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT...BUT WHETHER CIGS GET
TO VFR IS UNCERTAIN. ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE A CHC OF IFR CIG/VSBY
IN ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA LATE SUNDAY AFTN AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDE SPREAD DUE TO A STALLED FRONT
AND AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. AN ONSHORE FLOW
COULD PROMOTE FOG ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A LIGHT SE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TNGT AND INCREASES
SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT
SLOWLY INCREASES. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CONDS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...
WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE VARIABLE DUE TO THE LOCATION OF A STALLED
FRONT. EXPECT THEM TO TURN ONSHORE BY MID WEEK. AREAS OF FOG MAY
FORM. WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEY WILL APPROACH SCA LEVELS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL BE FAIRLY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS GREEN UP CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY BUT OFF THE OCEAN WHICH
WILL RESULT IN HIGHER RH VALUES PUSHING INLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHC
OF SHOWERS DURING THE WORK WEEK WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
FAIRLY HIGH RH VALUES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CEMPA
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...

000
FXUS61 KBOX 182320
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
720 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUN
NIGHT...PROBABLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN STALL OVER NEW YORK
AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMER...MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL AS POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...

INVERTED HIGH PRES RIDGE NOSING INTO THE BOX CWA THIS
EVENING...WHICH HAS ALLOWED MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS TO SINK CLOSER
TO THE S COAST OF RI/CT. THEREFORE...WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
EXPECT A BIT OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TONIGHT UNTIL A SHORTWAVE
ALLOWS FOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM THE SW DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. MIN TEMPS A BIT WARMER TONIGHT GIVEN THE WARMER
START...INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS UNDER WARM ADVECTION AND
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER/S THINKING AND HELD OFF THE
-SHRA ACTIVITY UNTIL WELL AFTER DAYBREAK...SLOWER THAN GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY SUGGESTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.  THIS WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.  THERE STILL WILL PROBABLY
BE A FEW PEEKS OF SUN AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...BUT THE OVERALL
TREND WILL BE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  HIGH TEMPS ARE TRICKY AND
WILL DEPEND UPON JUST HOW QUICKLY SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY.  WE
BLENDED THE COOLER GFSMOS GUIDANCE WITH THE MUCH MILDER METMOS.
BEST CHANCE OF THE MILDEST READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE MERRIMACK
VALLEY...AWAY FROM THE COAST AND WHERE SKIES WILL BE SLOWER TO
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY. WILL RANGE HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND
70...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO MAKE TWEAKS OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...BETTER FOCUS/FORCING/MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.  THEREFORE...EXPECT MOST OF THE DAY
WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  WARM ADVECTION MAY STILL RESULT IN A FEW
SPOT SHOWERS AT TIMES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES.
THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL
ACROSS MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MID LEVEL FORCING/DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO NOT
EXPECTING A LOT OF RAINFALL.  HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.  CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...BUT INDICES WERE TOO
MARGINAL TO INSERT AT THIS POINT.

MAY ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
OVERSPREAD THE REGION.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S GIVEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  WARM AND HUMID WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THRU AT LEAST THU

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
18/12Z LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
MID TERM PERIOD...BUT THEN STRUGGLES WITH THE MERGING /OR NON-
MERGING/ OF A SPLIT FLOW REGIME TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
GIVEN THE AGREEMENT THAT THE CONVERGENT REGION OF THESE TWO
STREAMS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE MID TERM...WILL USE A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND TO BASELINE FORECAST. FOR THE TAIL END OF THE LONG
TERM...WILL LIKELY LEAN AWAY FROM THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUN...AS
IT GENERATES A VERY DEEP MEANDERING CUTOFF IN NRN NEW ENGLAND
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE WELL INTO
/AND POSSIBLY BEYOND/ THE WEEKEND. IN ANY CASE...WITH CONVERGENT
STREAMS ALOFT THROUGH THE MID TERM...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY...BUT AS WAS NOTED...IT SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT.

DETAILS...

MON INTO MON NIGHT...
SFC WARM FRONT SHIFTS INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND WITH TIME...ALLOWING
MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND TO BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
DIURNAL HEATING TO YIELD SOME DAYTIME -SHRA...PARTICULARLY OVER
SRN NH AN NRN MA. SOUNDINGS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE DURING
THE DAY...SO WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WITH
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND DWPTS IN THE UPPER
50S...CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO FEEL MUGGY.

TUE INTO WED...
THE WARM FRONT IN NRN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SINK S OF THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. ON TUE...THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE /PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HEAT/ EXPECT
SOME DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE SOME EARLY DAY
CLOUD BREAKS AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. COOLING UPPER LVLS
AS HIGH PRES NOSES IN FROM THE N SUGGEST A RISE IN K/TT AND LI/S
DIPPING TO 0 TO NEGATIVE VALUES. SHEAR IS NOT
GREAT...PARTICULARLY THROUGH H85...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
UPDRAFTS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THUNDER FOR TUE. ON
WED...WEAK EARLY DAY RIDGING WILL LIKELY YIELD A PARTLY CLOUDY
START TO THE DAY UNTIL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRES SLIDES TO
THE NE. GIVEN THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...EARLY CLEARING AND
INCREASING MOISTURE...MAY SEE ANOTHER DAY WITH THE THREAT FOR
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE W AS A SECONDARY WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR ON WED TOO POSSIBLY...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A THUNDER THREAT ON WED AS WELL.

THU AND FRI...
TRICKY FORECAST HERE AS IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY NRN
STREAM JET ENERGY SINKS S FROM QUEBEC AND ONTARIO. THIS WILL
DICTATE HOW QUICKLY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AND THEIR SFC LOW PRES
WAVES WILL AFFECT THE REGION. IN ANY CASE...THE WET WX CONTINUES
ALTHOUGH A BIT MORE STABLE THAN TUE AND WED. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MODELS IN HOW THE NRN STREAM WORKS OUT...EXACT TIMING FOR
ANY OF THESE WAVES REMAINS A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK. ONCE
AGAIN...IT WILL LIKELY NOT RAIN EVERYDAY...BUT THERE IS THE THREAT
FOR AT LEAST -SHRA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE WEEKEND...
THE SRN STREAM RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE THE NRN STREAM LONGWAVE TROF
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION TO MORE
DRY WX WILL BE LIKELY SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TONIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.


OVERNIGHT...
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN SOME MVFR CIGS ARRIVING IN THE CT VALLEY TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

SUN...
CONTINUED WITH OPTIMISTIC FORECASTING SUGGESTING THE MVFR CIGS
TAKE UNTIL MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON TO ARRIVE IN THE
INTERIOR...HOLDING OFF UNTIL EVENING FOR EASTERN TERMINALS.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY VFR TO START...WITH A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND
THROUGH THE DAY.

SUN NIGHT...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR IN A MIX OF FOG AND SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE
DAY TOMORROW. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF MVFR BY SUN
EVENING...THEN IFR BY OVERNIGHT IN FOG/SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO ARRIVE AT TERMINAL BY SUN MORNING. IT
APPEARS BEST CHANCE WILL BE MID DAY ONWARD SUN. THEREFORE...VFR
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE INTO THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAINLY VFR/MVFR DURING THE DAYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR IN
ANY DAYTIME SHOWERS OR OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT MAINLY
MVFR/IFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN A MIX OF FOG AND LOW
STRATUS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST.

IN SUM...A PERIOD OF UNSETTELED WX IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO GENERATE LONG SOUTHWEST
FETCH INTO THE SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO
SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE
HOISTED SCA HEADLINES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THIS REGION. SCA
HEADLINES MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED INTO SOME OF THE SOUTHERN
SOUNDS...BUT SINCE ITS A 3RD PERIOD EVENT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO DO AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ALSO...A COMBINATION OF SHOWERS AND FOG WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MON INTO TUE...LINGERING SWELL ALONG THE SRN WATERS AND ERN OUTER
WATERS GRADUALLY SUBSIDES THROUGH TUE. WILL LIKELY NEED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS INTO THE DAY TUE.

WED AND WED NIGHT...SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

THU...AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W. EXPECT GRADUALLY BUILDING
SEAS...WHICH MAY REACH 5-7 FT DURING THE DAY THU. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM SUNDAY TO 8
     AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 8
     AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY/THOMPSON

000
FXUS61 KBOX 182014
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
414 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUN
NIGHT...PROBABLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN STALL OVER NEW YORK
AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMER...MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL AS POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN ABUNDANCE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS COVERED THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THESE
CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACCORDING TO MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS...BUT SHOULD SEE THEM DIMINISH SOME LATER TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING DOWN FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY TONIGHT.  LOW TEMPS ARE TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE OVERNIGHT.  FOR NOW GOING WITH LOWS IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.  THIS WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.  THERE STILL WILL PROBABLY
BE A FEW PEEKS OF SUN AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...BUT THE OVERALL
TREND WILL BE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  HIGH TEMPS ARE TRICKY AND
WILL DEPEND UPON JUST HOW QUICKLY SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY.  WE
BLENDED THE COOLER GFSMOS GUIDANCE WITH THE MUCH MILDER METMOS.
BEST CHANCE OF THE MILDEST READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE MERRIMACK
VALLEY...AWAY FROM THE COAST AND WHERE SKIES WILL BE SLOWER TO
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY. WILL RANGE HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND
70...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO MAKE TWEAKS OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...BETTER FOCUS/FORCING/MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.  THEREFORE...EXPECT MOST OF THE DAY
WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  WARM ADVECTION MAY STILL RESULT IN A FEW
SPOT SHOWERS AT TIMES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES.
THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL
ACROSS MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MID LEVEL FORCING/DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO NOT
EXPECTING A LOT OF RAINFALL.  HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.  CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...BUT INDICES WERE TOO
MARGINAL TO INSERT AT THIS POINT.

MAY ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
OVERSPREAD THE REGION.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S GIVEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  WARM AND HUMID WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THRU AT LEAST THU

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
18/12Z LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
MID TERM PERIOD...BUT THEN STRUGGLES WITH THE MERGING /OR NON-
MERGING/ OF A SPLIT FLOW REGIME TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
GIVEN THE AGREEMENT THAT THE CONVERGENT REGION OF THESE TWO
STREAMS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE MID TERM...WILL USE A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND TO BASELINE FORECAST. FOR THE TAIL END OF THE LONG
TERM...WILL LIKELY LEAN AWAY FROM THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUN...AS
IT GENERATES A VERY DEEP MEANDERING CUTOFF IN NRN NEW ENGLAND
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE WELL INTO
/AND POSSIBLY BEYOND/ THE WEEKEND. IN ANY CASE...WITH CONVERGENT
STREAMS ALOFT THROUGH THE MID TERM...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY...BUT AS WAS NOTED...IT SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT.

DETAILS...

MON INTO MON NIGHT...
SFC WARM FRONT SHIFTS INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND WITH TIME...ALLOWING
MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND TO BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
DIURNAL HEATING TO YIELD SOME DAYTIME -SHRA...PARTICULARLY OVER
SRN NH AN NRN MA. SOUNDINGS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE DURING
THE DAY...SO WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WITH
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND DWPTS IN THE UPPER
50S...CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO FEEL MUGGY.

TUE INTO WED...
THE WARM FRONT IN NRN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SINK S OF THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. ON TUE...THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE /PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HEAT/ EXPECT
SOME DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE SOME EARLY DAY
CLOUD BREAKS AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. COOLING UPPER LVLS
AS HIGH PRES NOSES IN FROM THE N SUGGEST A RISE IN K/TT AND LI/S
DIPPING TO 0 TO NEGATIVE VALUES. SHEAR IS NOT
GREAT...PARTICULARLY THROUGH H85...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
UPDRAFTS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THUNDER FOR TUE. ON
WED...WEAK EARLY DAY RIDGING WILL LIKELY YIELD A PARTLY CLOUDY
START TO THE DAY UNTIL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRES SLIDES TO
THE NE. GIVEN THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...EARLY CLEARING AND
INCREASING MOISTURE...MAY SEE ANOTHER DAY WITH THE THREAT FOR
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE W AS A SECONDARY WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR ON WED TOO POSSIBLY...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A THUNDER THREAT ON WED AS WELL.

THU AND FRI...
TRICKY FORECAST HERE AS IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY NRN
STREAM JET ENERGY SINKS S FROM QUEBEC AND ONTARIO. THIS WILL
DICTATE HOW QUICKLY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AND THEIR SFC LOW PRES
WAVES WILL AFFECT THE REGION. IN ANY CASE...THE WET WX CONTINUES
ALTHOUGH A BIT MORE STABLE THAN TUE AND WED. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MODELS IN HOW THE NRN STREAM WORKS OUT...EXACT TIMING FOR
ANY OF THESE WAVES REMAINS A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK. ONCE
AGAIN...IT WILL LIKELY NOT RAIN EVERYDAY...BUT THERE IS THE THREAT
FOR AT LEAST -SHRA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE WEEKEND...
THE SRN STREAM RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE THE NRN STREAM LONGWAVE TROF
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION TO MORE
DRY WX WILL BE LIKELY SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TOO HOW FAST LOW CLOUDS WORK IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.  LEANING TOWARDS A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  SOME MVFR
CIGS MAY AFFECT THE INTERIOR AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BY THAT TIME ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG
PATCHES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  EASTERLY
SEA BREEZES WILL TURN SOUTHEAST BY EARLY EVENING AND THEN SOUTH
SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z.  SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE LIKELY DEVELOPS
AGAIN BY SUN AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON SUNDAY.  MAINLY VFR TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAINLY VFR/MVFR DURING THE DAYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR IN
ANY DAYTIME SHOWERS OR OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT MAINLY
MVFR/IFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN A MIX OF FOG AND LOW
STRATUS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST.

IN SUM...A PERIOD OF UNSETTELED WX IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO GENERATE LONG SOUTHWEST
FETCH INTO THE SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO
SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE
HOISTED SCA HEADLINES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THIS REGION. SCA
HEADLINES MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED INTO SOME OF THE SOUTHERN
SOUNDS...BUT SINCE ITS A 3RD PERIOD EVENT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO DO AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ALSO...A COMBINATION OF SHOWERS AND FOG WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MON INTO TUE...LINGERING SWELL ALONG THE SRN WATERS AND ERN OUTER
WATERS GRADUALLY SUBSIDES THROUGH TUE. WILL LIKELY NEED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS INTO THE DAY TUE.

WED AND WED NIGHT...SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

THU...AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W. EXPECT GRADUALLY BUILDING
SEAS...WHICH MAY REACH 5-7 FT DURING THE DAY THU. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM SUNDAY TO 8
     AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 8
     AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY

000
FXUS61 KGYX 181922
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
322 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A DRY AND COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE WDLY
SCT AFTN INSBLTY CLDS AND SPRINKLES WILL COME TO AN END AFTER SS
FOLLOWED BY P/C CONDS. OVERNIGHT MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
IN THE MTNS TO MID 40S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST GETS SOMEWHAT INTERESTING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS WIDELY DIFFER WITH POPS, TIMING, AND LOCATION OF MINOR
S/WVES AND ALSO QPF. WILL ASSUME THE GFS IS OVERPLAYING CONVECTION
MOVING THRU THE DIRTY RIDGE AND ALSO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHWRS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL PREFER THE SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE
DRIER NAM AND ALSO LOWER POPS SO MADE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY.
USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS GUID FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT A FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE EXACT LOCATION
AND TIMING OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL
AFFECT TIMING OF PRECIP AS WELL AS WIND DIRECTION. FOR NOW HAVE
USED THE ECMWF. THIS RESULTS IN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A BETTER THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ONSHORE
FLOW MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST. A MORE
ORGANIZED LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES PAST THE AREA EXPECT DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A CHC OF MVFR
CIG/VSBY IN ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA SUNDAY AFTN AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDE SPREAD DUE TO A STALLED FRONT
AND AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. AN ONSHORE FLOW
COULD PROMOTE FOG ALONG COASTAL AREAS.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A LIGHT SE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TNGT AND INCREASES
SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT
SLOWLY INCREASES. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CONDS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...
WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE VARIABLE DUE TO THE LOCATION OF A STALLED
FRONT. EXPECT THEM TO TURN ONSHORE BY MID WEEK. AREAS OF FOG MAY
FORM. WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEY WILL APPROACH SCA LEVELS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL BE FAIRLY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS GREEN UP CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY BUT OFF THE OCEAN WHICH
WILL RESULT IN HIGHER RH VALUES PUSHING INLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHC
OF SHOWERS DURING THE WORK WEEK WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
FAIRLY HIGH RH VALUES.
&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...LULOFS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 181755
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
155 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN STALL OVER NEW YORK AND CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMER...MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL AS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...MOST
LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

155 PM UPDATE...

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.  HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S IN
MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH SEA BREEZES WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.  DRY WEATHER GENERALLY
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT A VERY ISOLATED SPRINKLE/LIGHT
SHOWER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
AN ISOLD SHOWER/SPRINKLE COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS NE
MA AND SOUTHERN NH...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS 1030 MB HIGH
SETTLES OVER GEORGES BANK. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT /40S/ GIVEN DRY DEW
PTS FROM GOOD BLYR MIXING SAT AFTN COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS.
ALTHOUGH NOT AS COOL AS FRI NIGHT/SAT AM GIVEN MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

AS FOR POPS...SIDED AGAIN WITH THE DRIER ECMWF AS COLUMN STRUGGLES
TO SATURATE ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT.
THUS MAINLY A DRY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...
WARM FRONT ACROSS MID ATLC REGION BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS MID
LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER ATLC CANADA DEPARTS SEAWARD. THEREFORE ANY
SUN IN THE MORNING WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING AFTERNOON
CLOUDINESS. WAA/UPGLIDE BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST. THEREFORE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER ECMWF AND ITS
LATER ONSET TIME FOR SHOWERS. THUS HAVE FOCUSED CHANCE POPS
LATE IN THE DAY. AS A RESULT BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  WARM AND HUMID WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THRU AT LEAST THU

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS AGREE UPON AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN MON THRU FRI
OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEEMINGLY ANOMALOUS BLOCKING THIS FAR INTO
SPRING. NEW ENGLAND LOOKS TO BE AT THE CONVERGING END OF A SPLIT
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. WHAT SHOULD PASS THRU AS A WARM FRONT
ON MON WILL LIKELY STALL JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A
RELATIVELY MODEST SHIFT IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN COULD MAKE A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE ON WHETHER WE REMAIN WETTER OR DRIER.
ENSEMBLES AND LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL PROBABLY HAVE RELATIVELY UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER MUCH
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NEARLY EVERY DAY IN
THE LONG TERM FORECAST BUT IN REALITY IT SHOULD NOT BE RAINING ALL
WEEK LONG. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED TO SOME DEGREE
DIURNALLY WITH AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS THE MOST FAVORED TIME. THE
PROBLEM IS THAT WE ARE UNABLE TO RESOLVE THE FORCING MECHANISMS
FOR THE SHOWERY PERIODS. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT ANY ONE DAY WILL BE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT...AND IF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD PROVE A
LITTLE STRONGER...THE FRONT COULD SAG BACK SOUTH FAR ENOUGH TO DRY
REGION OUT.

MON... HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE BEST
CHANCE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN THERE IS A WEAK INSTABILITY
BURST SIGNATURE WITH LOW LEVEL WARMING SEEN AT 850 MB AND AN
INCREASE IN THE K INDEX. IT MAY TURN DRY AND WARM WITH INCREASED
HUMIDITY BY MON AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

TUE... BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS SUGGEST A SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY WESTERN
ZONES. THUS...THUNDER MAY BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONTINUED MILD AND HUMID...PERHAPS ESPECIALLY
NOTICABLE AT NIGHT AS CLOUDS PREVENT MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING.

WED... NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
LITTLE NORTH OF AREA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF POINT TOWARD BEST
AFTERNOON/EVENING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES BUT JUST
TOO MUCH INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN TO BE VERY
SPECIFIC AT THIS STAGE.

THU... STILL MORE OF THE SAME. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS OPERATIONAL
MODELS POINT TOWARD CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY THU AFTERNOON AND A
SURFACE WAVE PASSING ALONG THE FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY FOR CONVECTION. ON THE OTHER
HAND...BOTH MODELS COULD JUST AS EASILY BE OFF ON TIMING OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY THAT FAR OUT.

FRI... BY FRI WE SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS DETACHES AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER
THE OH VALLEY THAT IN TURNS INSTIGATES WAVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
MID ATLC COASTAL PLAIN FRI NIGHT. THE ECMWF IN CONTRAST PLACES
MORE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SHORT WAVE TROF THAT IS
MORE LIKELY TO SWEEP COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION SOMETIME
FRI.

IN SUMMARY...A LARGE SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
A FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEEK WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TOO HOW FAST LOW CLOUDS WORK IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.  LEANING TOWARDS A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  SOME MVFR
CIGS MAY AFFECT THE INTERIOR AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BY THAT TIME ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG
PATCHES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  EASTERLY
SEA BREEZES WILL TURN SOUTHEAST BY EARLY EVENING AND THEN SOUTH
SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z.  SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE LIKELY DEVELOPS
AGAIN BY SUN AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON SUNDAY.  MAINLY VFR TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. FREQUENT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED
IN SCT SHOWERS AND FOG WITH POCKET OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY AT
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE GULF OF ME TODAY AND THEN GEORGES BANK
SUNDAY. THUS LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TRANQUIL SEAS. VSBY WILL GOOD.
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS WITH JUST A LOW RISK OF SHOWERS LATE SUN
ACROSS THE RI WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL LIKELY SET UP AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEAS AT OR ABOVE 5 FT WITH PERIODS OF SCA SW
WINDS AS WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT TO THE NORTH TIGHTEN THE
SURFACE PRES GRADIENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES SATURDAY WILL BE BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE INTERIOR BUT
WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. ON SUNDAY...HIGHER RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED...FROM 45 TO 60 PERCENT WITH S-SE WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...FRANK/THOMPSON
MARINE...NOCERA/THOMPSON
FIRE WEATHER...NOCERA