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000
FXUS61 KBOX 190130
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
930 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION
BRINGING DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER TO THE REGION SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO A GOOD PORTION
OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS IN WITH DRY... PLEASANT CONDITIONS
INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

930 PM UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUED TO HANG TOUGH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING.  WE SHOULD SEE THOSE LOW
CLOUDS GRADUALLY BREAK UP...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS DEPICT.  HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT...SO
NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION OTHER THAN A LOW PROBABILITY OF A
VERY BRIEF SPRINKLE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES.  LOW TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL CLOUDS POPPING AS THE COLDEST AIR MOVES
OVERHEAD. BUT THE FORECAST MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS
DIMINISHES...SO WE WILL FOLLOW MODEL TRENDS AND GO WITH CLEARING
SKIES. THE SOLAR HEATING AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
DEEP MIXING OF THE AIRMASS WITH THE MIXED LAYER REACHING TO AT
LEAST 900 MB AND PROBABLY TO 850 MB. WINDS IN THIS LAYER TOMORROW
WILL REACH AT LEAST 25 KNOTS...AND THERE ARE SOME MODEL
INDICATIONS OF 30 KNOTS. THIS WOULD MEAN GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH MIXING
TO THE SURFACE TOWARD MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 0C TO -2C...THE NAM SUGGESTS -4C. WITH
FULL MIXING THIS WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60. THE BUILDING SURFACE PRESSURES SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD
ANOTHER 1-2F TO THESE EXPECTATIONS. WE WILL FORECAST MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S AND
30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH CHILLY NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS
* WET WEATHER LIKELY SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO MOST OF THE
  DAY WEDNESDAY
* ANOTHER HIGH BRINGS DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS INTO LATE NEXT
  WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL CHANGING
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...FROM A RATHER FLAT...SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN EARLY TO A DEVELOPING AMPLIFIED...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. QUESTION AS TO WHETHER
THIS SLOWING IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE...
CAUSING APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING TUE INTO WED TO SLOW AS
IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS SHOWING QUITE A BIT
OF SPREAD BEYOND WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT TRIES TO SHIFT
E OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH...OF ALL MODELS...THE 12Z EC TRYING
TO KEEP THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING FASTER WHILE THE GFS SLOWS THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.

USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/EC ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...GIVING GOOD CONSISTENCY. THIS WAS ALSO PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE WPC GUIDANCE. HAVE OVERALL MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE LATE NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
LARGE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS QUEBEC DURING LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN SOME CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
AS EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS. EXPECT
HIGHS FROM ONLY AROUND 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...RANGING TO
THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.

OCEAN CLOUDS MAY MOVE INLAND DURING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE ONSHORE
WINDS AS THE HIGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TO E OF NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO SE
TO S OVERNIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ALONG THE SHORE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE 30S
AT MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH MAY HOLD NEAR 40 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. SOME QUESTION AS TO THE TEMP REGIME...DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH
CLOUDINESS WORKS INLAND.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL E OF THE REGION...THOUGH THE RIDGE
TENDS TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY MOSTLY
SUNNY...THOUGH A FEW CLOUDS MIGHT LINGER ALONG THE COAST EARLY.
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY BUT WILL
REMAIN AT 10 MPH OR LESS. WITH THE LIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION AND H85 TEMPS RISING TO +6C TO +9C DURING THE DAY AS THE S
WINDS TAKE HOLD...WILL SEE TEMPS RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
WELL INLAND. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST...WHICH COULD KEEP TEMPS BACK IN THE 50S. IF THEY
DO DEVELOP...MAY BE RATHER SHALLOW AND REMAIN WITHIN A FEW MILES
OF THE SHORELINE.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SYSTEM OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY
BE IN THE 40S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A RATHER STRONG H5 SHORT WAVE WORKING E
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TUESDAY.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING ROUND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...LOOKS
LIKE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE
SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING SOME SOLUTION SPREAD WITH THIS ASPECT...THOUGH DOES
LOOK LIKE IT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
ANOTHER HIGH RIDGE WILL LOOKS TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
DURING THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF DRY BUT COOLER AIR. SOME
MODELS TRY TO KEEP SOME SPOTTY PRECIP ALONG THE COAST EARLY
THU.

LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES
OFFSHORE...THOUGH A WARM FRONT MAY BRING A FEW WIDELY SCT SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY OR FRI NIGHT. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...HIGHER CONFIDENCE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...

EARLY TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY FOR TIMING. MVFR-IFR
CIGS/LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG REDEVELOP ALONG
E COAST THROUGH AROUND 04Z-05Z...THEN SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WINDS
SHIFT TO S AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT.

LATER TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TREND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES
APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD MOVE THE LOWER CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA
WHILE VFR CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVE IN. MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT WOULD BRING IT THROUGH OUR AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO NORTHWEST LATE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND VFR. DAYTIME HEATING
BY THE SUN WILL DRAW STRONGER WINDS GUSTS TO THE SURFACE WITH
GUSTS TO AT LEAST 25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY 30 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. CONTINUED VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTH WIND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAIN ISSUE IS EXTENT AND
DURATION OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY-MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS TO START ON TUESDAY. CIGS/VSBYS MAY LOWER TO MVFR
IN SCT SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG LATE TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM W-E WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS MOST OF THE TIME WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. IT IS POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY THAT GUSTS CLOSE TO SHORE MAY BE NEAR 25 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
LINGERING SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY...AND
5 FOOT SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND ON MASSACHUSETTS BAY/IPSWICH BAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT NE WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20 KT EARLY...THEN WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY AS THEY SHIFT TO E AS THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE LATE SUN AFTERNOON/SUN NIGHT. LEFTOVER 5 FOOT SEAS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SHOULD SUBSIDE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT LIGHT SE WINDS ON MONDAY TO BECOME S MON NIGHT AND TUE.
SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS TUE NIGHT WILL SHIFT TO W AS LOW PRES AND COLD FRONT
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT NW WINDS TO PICK UP DURING
WED...THOUGH TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. COULD SEE LOW END SMALL CRAFT
WINDS AND SEAS LATE WED OR WED NIGHT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEATHER CONDITIONS DRY OUT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 20S AND MINIMUM RH VALUES REACHING 28-35 PERCENT. NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PICK UP WITH GUSTS OF AT LEAST 25
KNOTS AND POSSIBLY 30 KNOTS. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE SUFFICIENT TO
CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN...BUT REPORTS RECEIVED SO
FAR INDICATE GROUND CONDITIONS ARE STILL TOO MOIST. NO FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT THE SITUATION
WILL BE MONITORED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MAIN STEM CT RIVER.
MOST POINTS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE NOW RECEDING...MIDDLE HADDAM WILL
CREST TONIGHT. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED ALONG CT RIVER AT...

NORTHAMPTON
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...WTB
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 182358
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
758 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION
BRINGING DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING A
PERIOD OF WET WEATHER TO THE REGION SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO
A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS IN WITH DRY...
PLEASANT CONDITIONS INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
750 PM UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO MOVE IN ALONG THE E COAST AS SEEN ON
LATEST OBS AT 23Z. ALSO NOTING SOME LOWER VSBYS ACROSS THE OUTER
CAPE. E-NE WINDS CONTINUE...BUT HAVE DIMINISHED WHICH HAS HELPED
THE LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP AS THE SUN SETS. HAVE ADDED LOWER
CLOUDS BACK INTO E MA/RI THROUGH 04Z OR SO. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS
BREAK UP AS WINDS SHIFT TO S AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT...THEN
WILL TEND TO DRY UP AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO
W-NW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. EXTRAPOLATION BRINGS THE FRONT TO THE CT VALLEY
AROUND 09Z-11Z. JET DYNAMICS ARE FOCUSED TOWARD THE CANADIAN
BORDER/NRN VT/NRN NH. TIME CROSS SECTIONS OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND
SHOW MOST OF THE FAVORABLE RH AT OR ABOVE 500 MB...BEST RH VALUES
OF 60-70 PCT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND 06Z-09Z. IF THERE ARE ANY
SHOWERS IN OUR AREA...WOULD EXPECT THEM TO BE IN SRN NH OR IN
EXTREME NRN MASS. WE HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO SRN NH AND
EXTREME NORTHERN ESSEX CO BUT VALUES ARE LOW...ROUGHLY 15-18 PCT.
TEMPS WILL COOL SOMEWHAT TONIGHT FROM A STARTING POINT IN THE
40S...BUT CLOUDS WILL SLOW ANY COOLING TREND. WE STAYED CLOSE TO A
MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH HAS MINS MAINLY IN THE 30S. A FEW OF THE
COLDER SPOTS IN FRANKLIN AND CHESHIRE COUNTIES COULD REACH THE
UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL CLOUDS POPPING AS THE COLDEST AIR MOVES
OVERHEAD. BUT THE FORECAST MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS
DIMINISHES...SO WE WILL FOLLOW MODEL TRENDS AND GO WITH CLEARING
SKIES. THE SOLAR HEATING AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
DEEP MIXING OF THE AIRMASS WITH THE MIXED LAYER REACHING TO AT
LEAST 900 MB AND PROBABLY TO 850 MB. WINDS IN THIS LAYER TOMORROW
WILL REACH AT LEAST 25 KNOTS...AND THERE ARE SOME MODEL
INDICATIONS OF 30 KNOTS. THIS WOULD MEAN GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH MIXING
TO THE SURFACE TOWARD MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 0C TO -2C...THE NAM SUGGESTS -4C. WITH
FULL MIXING THIS WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60. THE BUILDING SURFACE PRESSURES SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD
ANOTHER 1-2F TO THESE EXPECTATIONS. WE WILL FORECAST MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S AND
30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH CHILLY NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS
* WET WEATHER LIKELY SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO MOST OF THE
  DAY WEDNESDAY
* ANOTHER HIGH BRINGS DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS INTO LATE NEXT
  WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL CHANGING
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...FROM A RATHER FLAT...SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN EARLY TO A DEVELOPING AMPLIFIED...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. QUESTION AS TO WHETHER
THIS SLOWING IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE...
CAUSING APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING TUE INTO WED TO SLOW AS
IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS SHOWING QUITE A BIT
OF SPREAD BEYOND WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT TRIES TO SHIFT
E OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH...OF ALL MODELS...THE 12Z EC TRYING
TO KEEP THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING FASTER WHILE THE GFS SLOWS THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.

USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/EC ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...GIVING GOOD CONSISTENCY. THIS WAS ALSO PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE WPC GUIDANCE. HAVE OVERALL MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE LATE NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
LARGE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS QUEBEC DURING LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN SOME CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
AS EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS. EXPECT
HIGHS FROM ONLY AROUND 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...RANGING TO
THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.

OCEAN CLOUDS MAY MOVE INLAND DURING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE ONSHORE
WINDS AS THE HIGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TO E OF NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO SE
TO S OVERNIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ALONG THE SHORE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE 30S
AT MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH MAY HOLD NEAR 40 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. SOME QUESTION AS TO THE TEMP REGIME...DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH
CLOUDINESS WORKS INLAND.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL E OF THE REGION...THOUGH THE RIDGE
TENDS TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY MOSTLY
SUNNY...THOUGH A FEW CLOUDS MIGHT LINGER ALONG THE COAST EARLY.
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY BUT WILL
REMAIN AT 10 MPH OR LESS. WITH THE LIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION AND H85 TEMPS RISING TO +6C TO +9C DURING THE DAY AS THE S
WINDS TAKE HOLD...WILL SEE TEMPS RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
WELL INLAND. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST...WHICH COULD KEEP TEMPS BACK IN THE 50S. IF THEY
DO DEVELOP...MAY BE RATHER SHALLOW AND REMAIN WITHIN A FEW MILES
OF THE SHORELINE.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SYSTEM OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY
BE IN THE 40S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A RATHER STRONG H5 SHORT WAVE WORKING E
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TUESDAY.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING ROUND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...LOOKS
LIKE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE
SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING SOME SOLUTION SPREAD WITH THIS ASPECT...THOUGH DOES
LOOK LIKE IT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
ANOTHER HIGH RIDGE WILL LOOKS TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
DURING THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF DRY BUT COOLER AIR. SOME
MODELS TRY TO KEEP SOME SPOTTY PRECIP ALONG THE COAST EARLY
THU.

LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES
OFFSHORE...THOUGH A WARM FRONT MAY BRING A FEW WIDELY SCT SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY OR FRI NIGHT. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...HIGHER CONFIDENCE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...

EARLY TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY FOR TIMING. MVFR-IFR
CIGS/LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG REDEVELOP ALONG
E COAST THROUGH AROUND 04Z-05Z...THEN SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WINDS
SHIFT TO S AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT.

LATER TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TREND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES
APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD MOVE THE LOWER CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA
WHILE VFR CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVE IN. MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT WOULD BRING IT THROUGH OUR AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO NORTHWEST LATE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND VFR. DAYTIME HEATING
BY THE SUN WILL DRAW STRONGER WINDS GUSTS TO THE SURFACE WITH
GUSTS TO AT LEAST 25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY 30 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. CONTINUED VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTH WIND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAIN ISSUE IS EXTENT AND
DURATION OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY-MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS TO START ON TUESDAY. CIGS/VSBYS MAY LOWER TO MVFR
IN SCT SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG LATE TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM W-E WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS MOST OF THE TIME WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. IT IS POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY THAT GUSTS CLOSE TO SHORE MAY BE NEAR 25 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
LINGERING SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY...AND
5 FOOT SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND ON MASSACHUSETTS BAY/IPSWICH BAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT NE WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20 KT EARLY...THEN WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY AS THEY SHIFT TO E AS THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE LATE SUN AFTERNOON/SUN NIGHT. LEFTOVER 5 FOOT SEAS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SHOULD SUBSIDE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT LIGHT SE WINDS ON MONDAY TO BECOME S MON NIGHT AND TUE.
SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS TUE NIGHT WILL SHIFT TO W AS LOW PRES AND COLD FRONT
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT NW WINDS TO PICK UP DURING
WED...THOUGH TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. COULD SEE LOW END SMALL CRAFT
WINDS AND SEAS LATE WED OR WED NIGHT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEATHER CONDITIONS DRY OUT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 20S AND MINIMUM RH VALUES REACHING 28-35 PERCENT. NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PICK UP WITH GUSTS OF AT LEAST 25
KNOTS AND POSSIBLY 30 KNOTS. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE SUFFICIENT TO
CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN...BUT REPORTS RECEIVED SO
FAR INDICATE GROUND CONDITIONS ARE STILL TOO MOIST. NO FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT THE SITUATION
WILL BE MONITORED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MAIN STEM CT RIVER.
MOST POINTS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE NOW RECEDING...MIDDLE HADDAM WILL
CREST TONIGHT. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED ALONG CT RIVER AT...

NORTHAMPTON
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...WTB
HYDROLOGY...WTB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 182034
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
434 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION
BRINGING DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING A
PERIOD OF WET WEATHER TO THE REGION SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO
A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS IN WITH DRY...
PLEASANT CONDITIONS INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...
MARINE CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN MASS AS EAST WINDS CONTINUE
TO MOVE ASHORE FROM MASS BAY AND THE GULF OF MAINE. THE CLOUDS
HAVE BROKEN UP FARTHER WEST WHERE WINDS HAVE BECOME VARIABLE OR
SOUTH...CUTTING OFF THE INFLOW OF MOISTURE FOR THE CLOUDS. EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING.

TONIGHT...
SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. EXTRAPOLATION BRINGS THE FRONT TO THE CT VALLEY AROUND
09Z-11Z. JET DYNAMICS ARE FOCUSED TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER/NRN
VT/NRN NH. TIME CROSS SECTIONS OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND SHOW MOST OF
THE FAVORABLE RH AT OR ABOVE 500 MB...BEST RH VALUES OF 60-70 PCT
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND 06Z-09Z. IF THERE ARE ANY SHOWERS IN OUR
AREA...WOULD EXPECT THEM TO BE IN SRN NH OR IN EXTREME NRN MASS.
WE HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO SRN NH AND EXTREME NORTHERN
ESSEX CO BUT VALUES ARE LOW...ROUGHLY 15-18 PCT. TEMPS WILL COOL
SOMEWHAT TONIGHT FROM A STARTING POINT IN THE 40S...BUT CLOUDS
WILL SLOW ANY COOLING TREND. WE STAYED CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS
WHICH HAS MINS MAINLY IN THE 30S. A FEW OF THE COLDER SPOTS IN
FRANKLIN AND CHESHIRE COUNTIES COULD REACH THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL CLOUDS POPPING AS THE COLDEST AIR MOVES
OVERHEAD. BUT THE FORECAST MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS
DIMINISHES...SO WE WILL FOLLOW MODEL TRENDS AND GO WITH CLEARING
SKIES. THE SOLAR HEATING AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
DEEP MIXING OF THE AIRMASS WITH THE MIXED LAYER REACHING TO AT
LEAST 900 MB AND PROBABLY TO 850 MB. WINDS IN THIS LAYER TOMORROW
WILL REACH AT LEAST 25 KNOTS...AND THERE ARE SOME MODEL
INDICATIONS OF 30 KNOTS. THIS WOULD MEAN GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH MIXING
TO THE SURFACE TOWARD MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 0C TO -2C...THE NAM SUGGESTS -4C. WITH
FULL MIXING THIS WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60. THE BUILDING SURFACE PRESSURES SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD
ANOTHER 1-2F TO THESE EXPECTATIONS. WE WILL FORECAST MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S AND
30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH CHILLY NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS
* WET WEATHER LIKELY SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO MOST OF THE
  DAY WEDNESDAY
* ANOTHER HIGH BRINGS DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS INTO LATE NEXT
  WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL CHANGING
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...FROM A RATHER FLAT...SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN EARLY TO A DEVELOPING AMPLIFIED...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. QUESTION AS TO WHETHER
THIS SLOWING IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE...
CAUSING APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING TUE INTO WED TO SLOW AS
IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS SHOWING QUITE A BIT
OF SPREAD BEYOND WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT TRIES TO SHIFT
E OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH...OF ALL MODELS...THE 12Z EC TRYING
TO KEEP THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING FASTER WHILE THE GFS SLOWS THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.

USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/EC ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...GIVING GOOD CONSISTENCY. THIS WAS ALSO PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE WPC GUIDANCE. HAVE OVERALL MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE LATE NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
LARGE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS QUEBEC DURING LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN SOME CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
AS EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS. EXPECT
HIGHS FROM ONLY AROUND 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...RANGING TO
THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.

OCEAN CLOUDS MAY MOVE INLAND DURING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE ONSHORE
WINDS AS THE HIGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TO E OF NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO SE
TO S OVERNIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ALONG THE SHORE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE 30S
AT MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH MAY HOLD NEAR 40 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. SOME QUESTION AS TO THE TEMP REGIME...DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH
CLOUDINESS WORKS INLAND.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL E OF THE REGION...THOUGH THE RIDGE
TENDS TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY MOSTLY
SUNNY...THOUGH A FEW CLOUDS MIGHT LINGER ALONG THE COAST EARLY.
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY BUT WILL
REMAIN AT 10 MPH OR LESS. WITH THE LIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION AND H85 TEMPS RISING TO +6C TO +9C DURING THE DAY AS THE S
WINDS TAKE HOLD...WILL SEE TEMPS RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
WELL INLAND. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST...WHICH COULD KEEP TEMPS BACK IN THE 50S. IF THEY
DO DEVELOP...MAY BE RATHER SHALLOW AND REMAIN WITHIN A FEW MILES
OF THE SHORELINE.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SYSTEM OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY
BE IN THE 40S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A RATHER STRONG H5 SHORT WAVE WORKING E
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TUESDAY.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING ROUND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...LOOKS
LIKE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE
SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING SOME SOLUTION SPREAD WITH THIS ASPECT...THOUGH DOES
LOOK LIKE IT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
ANOTHER HIGH RIDGE WILL LOOKS TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
DURING THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF DRY BUT COOLER AIR. SOME
MODELS TRY TO KEEP SOME SPOTTY PRECIP ALONG THE COAST EARLY
THU.

LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES
OFFSHORE...THOUGH A WARM FRONT MAY BRING A FEW WIDELY SCT SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY OR FRI NIGHT. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...HIGHER CONFIDENCE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 00Z...BROAD AREA OF 2500 FOOT CIGS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING. BUT BY AFTERNOON IT HAD
BROKEN INTO TWO SMALLER AREAS...ONE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
THE OTHER OVER THE CENTRAL HILLS /CENTRAL MASS AND S CENTRAL NH/.
LARGE AREA OF CIRRUS OVERLAYS THESE LOWER CLOUDS. EXPECT THE
COASTAL PLAIN LOWER CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING...FED BY
MOIST AIR OFF MASS BAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TREND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES
APPROACHES. THIS WILL START MOVING THE LOWER CLOUDS OUT OF THE
AREA WHILE VFR CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVE IN. MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT WOULD BRING IT THROUGH OUR AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO NORTHWEST LATE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND VFR. DAYTIME HEATING
BY THE SUN WILL DRAW STRONGER WINDS GUSTS TO THE SURFACE WITH
GUSTS TO AT LEAST 25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY 30 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. CONTINUED VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTH WIND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAIN ISSUE IS EXTENT AND
DURATION OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY-MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS TO START ON TUESDAY. CIGS/VSBYS MAY LOWER TO MVFR
IN SCT SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG LATE TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM W-E WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS MOST OF THE TIME WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. IT IS POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY THAT GUSTS CLOSE TO SHORE MAY BE NEAR 25 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
LINGERING SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY...AND
5 FOOT SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND ON MASSACHUSETTS BAY/IPSWICH BAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT NE WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20 KT EARLY...THEN WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY AS THEY SHIFT TO E AS THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE LATE SUN AFTERNOON/SUN NIGHT. LEFTOVER 5 FOOT SEAS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SHOULD SUBSIDE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT LIGHT SE WINDS ON MONDAY TO BECOME S MON NIGHT AND TUE.
SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS TUE NIGHT WILL SHIFT TO W AS LOW PRES AND COLD FRONT
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT NW WINDS TO PICK UP DURING
WED...THOUGH TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. COULD SEE LOW END SMALL CRAFT
WINDS AND SEAS LATE WED OR WED NIGHT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEATHER CONDITIONS DRY OUT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 20S AND MINIMUM RH VALUES REACHING 28-35 PERCENT. NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PICK UP WITH GUSTS OF AT LEAST 25
KNOTS AND POSSIBLY 30 KNOTS. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE SUFFICIENT TO
CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN...BUT REPORTS RECEIVED SO
FAR INDICATE GROUND CONDITIONS ARE STILL TOO MOIST. NO FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT THE SITUATION
WILL BE MONITORED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MAIN STEM CT RIVER.
MOST POINTS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE NOW RECEDING...MIDDLE HADDAM WILL
CREST TONIGHT. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED ALONG CT RIVER AT...

NORTHAMPTON
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...WTB
HYDROLOGY...WTB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 181956
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
356 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION
BRINGING DRY WEATHER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER TO THE REGION SOMETIME LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...
MARINE CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN MASS AS EAST WINDS CONTINUE
TO MOVE ASHORE FROM MASS BAY AND THE GULF OF MAINE. THE CLOUDS
HAVE BROKEN UP FARTHER WEST WHERE WINDS HAVE BECOME VARIABLE OR
SOUTH...CUTING OFF THE INFLOW OF MOISTURE FOR THE CLOUDS. EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING.

TONIGHT...
SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. EXTRAPOLATION BRINGS THE FRONT TO THE CT VALLEY AROUND
09Z-11Z. JET DYNAMICS ARE FOCUSSED TOWARD THE CANADIAN
BORDER/NRN VT/NRN NH. TIME CROSS SECTIONS OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND SHOW
MOST OF THE FAVORABLE RH AT OR ABOVE 500 MB...BEST RH VALUES OF
60-70 PCT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND 06Z-09Z. IF THERE ARE ANY
SHOWERS IN OUR AREA...WOULD EXPECT THEM TO BE IN SRN NH OR IN
EXTREME NRN MASS. WE HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO SRN NH AND
EXTREME NORTHERN ESSEX CO BUT VALUES ARE LOW...ROUGHLY 15-18 PCT.
TEMPS WILL COOL SOMEWHAT TONIGHT FROM A STARTING POINT IN THE
40S...BUT CLOUDS WILL SLOW ANY COOLING TREND. WE STAYED CLOSE TO
A MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH HAS MINS MAINLY IN THE 30S. A FEW OF THE
COLDER SPOTS IN FRANKLIN AND CHESHIRE COUNTIES COULD REACH THE
UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL CLOUDS POPPING AS THE COLDEST AIR MOVES
OVERHEAD. BUT THE FORECAST MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS
DIMINISHES...SO WE WILL FOLLOW MODEL TRENDS AND GO WITH CLEARING
SKIES. THE SOLAR HEATING AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
DEEP MIXING OF THE AIRMASS WITH THE MIXED LAYER REACHING TO AT
LEAST 900 MB AND PROBABLY TO 850 MB. WINDS IN THIS LAYER TOMORROW
WILL REACH AT LEAST 25 KNOTS...AND THERE ARE SOME MODEL
INDICATIONS OF 30 KNOTS. THIS WOULD MEAN GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH MIXING
TO THE SURFACE TOWARD MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 0C TO -2C...THE NAM SUGGESTS -4C. WITH
FULL MIXING THIS WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60. THE BUILDING SURFACE PRESSURES SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD
ANOTHER 1-2F TO THESE EXPECTATIONS. WE WILL FORECAST MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S AND
30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH CHILLY NIGHTS/MILD DAYS
* WET WEATHER LIKELY SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH A MILD
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO
REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST.
HOWEVER...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES ON THE
IMMEDIATE COAST PROBABLY HOLDING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 30S.

MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WITH A MIXTURE
OF SUN AND CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS MODERATE CONSIDERABLY FROM SUNDAY/S
VALUES REACHING BETWEEN +6C TO +8C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO
REACH WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...TO PERHAPS EVEN
NEAR 70 IN A FEW LOCALES.  ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INCLUDING
BOSTON...ITS UNCERTAIN IF SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP IN THIS TIME
RANGE.  IF SEA BREEZES ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP...IT WOULD PROBABLY KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S...BUT THEY MAY END UP VERY LOCALIZED JUST
AFFECTING AREAS WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

A POTENTIALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM CANADA.  THIS WILL SPAWN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST.  AT THIS TIME RANGE...THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON STRENGTH/TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND TRACK/INTENSITY
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.  IT DOES LOOK LIKE A DECENT SHOT FOR AT
LEAST PERIOD OF WET WEATHER SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...

DRY WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SOME INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT MAY BE WINDY BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...HIGHER CONFIDENCE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 00Z...BROAD AREA OF 2500 FOOT CIGS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING. BUT BY AFTERNOON IT HAD
BROKEN INTO TWO SMALLER AREAS...ONE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
THE OTHER OVER THE CENTRAL HILLS /CENTRAL MASS AND S CENTRAL NH/.
LARGE AREA OF CIRRUS OVERLAYS THESE LOWER CLOUDS. EXPECT THE
COASTAL PLAIN LOWER CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING...FED BY
MOIST AIR OFF MASS BAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TREND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES
APPROACHES. THIS WILL START MOVING THE LOWER CLOUDS OUT OF THE
AREA WHILE VFR CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVE IN. MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT WOULD BRING IT THROUGH OUR AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO NORTHWEST LATE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND VFR. DAYTIME HEATING
BY THE SUN WILL DRAW STRONGER WINDS GUSTS TO THE SURFACE WITH
GUSTS TO AT LEAST 25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY 30 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. CONTINUED VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTH WIND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAIN ISSUE IS EXTENT AND
DURATION OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS MAY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR-IFR THRESHOLDS LATE TUE OR TUE NIGHT IN RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS MOST OF THE TIME WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. IT IS POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY THAT GUSTS CLOSE TO SHORE MAY BE NEAR 25 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
LINGERING SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY...AND
5 FOOT SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND ON MASSACHUSETTS BAY/IPSWICH BAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.  WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ALONG WITH 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.  THIS MAY RESULT IN MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS/SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.  WE
MAY SEE MARGINAL SCA SEAS DEVELOP LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AS A RESULT OF
SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEATHER CONDITIONS DRY OUT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 20S AND MINIMUM RH VALUES REACHING 28-35 PERCENT. NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PICK UP WITH GUSTS OF AT LEAST 25
KNOTS AND POSSIBLY 30 KNOTS. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE SUFFICIENT TO
CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN...BUT REPORTS RECEIVED SO
FAR INDICATE GROUND CONDITIONS ARE STILL TOO MOIST. NO FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT THE SITUATION
WILL BE MONITORED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MAIN STEM CT RIVER.
MOST POINTS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE NOW RECEDING...MIDDLE HADDAM WILL
CREST TONIGHT. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED ALONG CT RIVER AT...

NORTHAMPTON
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK
MARINE...WTB/FRANK
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KGYX 181853
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
253 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS AND BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG NORTHWEST WIND ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION MIDWEEK WITH RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MARINE STRATUS CONTINUES TO FLIRT WITH THE COAST OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE HIGHER
CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD
FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 60F IN SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 20 TO 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE A DIGGING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE AFFECTS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND FETCH OF POTENTIAL
MOIST INFLOW...RAIN COULD BE HEAVY FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS
STILL HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE FAIR...COOL...AND WINDY WEATHER IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SAT TO 30 KT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE SMALL CRAFT FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE TO
SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SCA CONDITIONS INCREASE MIDWEEK WITH
POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON
SATURDAY MAY APPROACH METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE RIVER LEVELS SLOWLY RECEDING. PLEASE CONSULT
THE LATEST PWMFLSGYX AND PWMFLWGYX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/EKSTER










000
FXUS61 KBOX 181753
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
153 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES IN THE EAST ALONG
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES...WHILE WESTERN AREAS HAVE MIX OF CLOUDS
AND AFTERNOON SUN.  A WEAKENING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER TO THE REGION SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MARINE CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE MORNING. EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE EAST...BUT
WESTERN AREAS MAY SEE THIS WIND SHIFT TO SOUTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT MODEL RH FIELDS SHOW A GOOD SUPPLY OF
MOISTURE BELOW 925 MB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN EASTERN MASS...BUT
ALSO SOME THINNING OF THIS MOIST LAYER IN THE CT VALLEY. SO THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE THE CLOUDS THIN OUT AT
LEAST PARTIALLY DURING THIS AFTERNOON WHILE WORCESTER AND EAST
WILL REMAIN MAINLY UNDER THE CLOUDS.

THE ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE 39-40F WATER IN MASSACHUSETTS BAY SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE EAST WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE 40S /NORMAL 56-61/
WHILE WESTERN AREAS SUCH AS THE CT VALLEY WILL BENEFIT FROM THE
LIMITED AFTERNOON SUN AND REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE LAYER REMAINS
MAINLY ABOVE H6...WITH DWPT DEPRESSIONS EXCEEDING 10C FROM THE SFC
TO H6. LOW-MID LVL F-GEN IS ALSO VERY WEAK AS IT ARRIVES GIVEN IT
IS TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH RIDGING. THEREFORE...EXPECT LITTLE
FANFARE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE EXCEPT MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS AND W
WINDS INCREASING THROUGH SUNRISE. CONTINUE TO SUGGEST NIL POPS.
BKN-OVC CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...BUT
ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIRMASS SUGGESTS TEMPS STILL DROP TO THE LOW-MID
30S.

SAT...
HIGH PRES REGAINS CONTROL WITH COLD ADVECTION TO START THE DAY.
THIS COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW MIXING UNDER ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TO REACH HIGHER THAN H8...WHERE TEMPS ONLY DIP TO AROUND
-1C. COMBINE THIS WITH W DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO REBOUND INTO THE LOW 60S. LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE GIVEN H92
WINDS REACH AROUND 20-25 KT. THEREFORE...ALSO EXPECT WINDS AROUND
20 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH CHILLY NIGHTS/MILD DAYS
* WET WEATHER LIKELY SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH A CHILLY
SATURDAY NIGHT BEING REPLACED BY A MILD SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  LIGHT
WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDER OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA...TO MAINLY THE 30S ELSEWHERE.  ON
SUNDAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST
PROBABLY HOLDING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 30S.

MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WITH A MIXTURE
OF SUN AND CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS MODERATE CONSIDERABLY FROM SUNDAY/S
VALUES REACHING BETWEEN +6C TO +8C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO
REACH WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...TO PERHAPS EVEN
NEAR 70 IN A FEW LOCALES.  ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INCLUDING
BOSTON...ITS UNCERTAIN IF SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP IN THIS TIME
RANGE.  IF SEA BREEZES ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP...IT WOULD PROBABLY KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S...BUT THEY MAY END UP VERY LOCALIZED JUST
AFFECTING AREAS WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

A POTENTIALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM CANADA.  THIS WILL SPAWN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST.  AT THIS TIME RANGE...THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON STRENGTH/TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND TRACK/INTENSITY
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.  IT DOES LOOK LIKE A DECENT SHOT FOR AT
LEAST PERIOD OF WET WEATHER SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...

DRY WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SOME INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT MAY BE WINDY BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...HIGHER CONFIDENCE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 00Z...BROAD AREA OF 2500 FOOT CIGS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING. BUT BY AFTERNOON IT HAD
BROKEN INTO TWO SMALLER AREAS...ONE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
THE OTHER OVER THE CENTRAL HILLS /CENTRAL MASS AND S CENTRAL NH/.
LARGE AREA OF CIRRUS OVERLAYS THESE LOWER CLOUDS. EXPECT THE
COASTAL PLAIN LOWER CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING...FED BY
MOIST AIR OFF MASS BAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TREND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES
APPROACHES. THIS WILL START MOVING THE LOWER CLOUDS OUT OF THE
AREA WHILE VFR CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVE IN. MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT WOULD BRING IT THROUGH OUR AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO NORTHWEST LATE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND VFR. DAYTIME HEATING
BY THE SUN WILL DRAW STRONGER WINDS GUSTS TO THE SURFACE WITH
GUSTS TO AT LEAST 25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY 30 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. CONTINUED VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTH WIND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAIN ISSUE IS EXTENT AND
DURATION OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS MAY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR-IFR THRESHOLDS LATE TUE OR TUE NIGHT IN RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ALTHOUGH WINDS EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE 25 KT
THRESHOLD FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...A LINGERING SWELL WILL KEEP
SEAS AT LEAST 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT ON THE OCEAN WATERS
ESPECIALLY. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO 12Z SAT AT LEAST...WITH NEAR SHORE WATERS
DROPPING EARLIER.

WINDS TODAY BEING OUT OF THE NE...SHIFTING TO THE SW TONIGHT THEN
W DURING THE DAY ON SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.  WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ALONG WITH 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.  THIS MAY RESULT IN MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS/SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.  WE
MAY SEE MARGINAL SCA SEAS DEVELOP LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AS A RESULT OF
SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY IS THE THREE DAY MARK SINCE LAST APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN THIS FACT...WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE LOW 60S AND LOW DWPTS IN THE 20S...MIN RH VALUES
SHOULD DIP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH W WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 30 MPH. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE
REALIZED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MAIN STEM CT RIVER.
MOST POINTS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE NOW RECEDING...MIDDLE HADDAM WILL
CREST TONIGHT. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED ALONG CT RIVER AT...

NORTHAMPTON
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK
MARINE...WTB/FRANK/DOODY
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 181628
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1228 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. MILDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

1225 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE PRESENT MESONET.

1015 AM...METARS AND GOES IMAGERY SHOW THE LOW CLOUD SPREADING
INLAND ON THE ONSHORE FLOW. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE...I MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS AS WELL AS OTHER 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE MESONET. I ADJUSTED WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ON SATURDAY TO REFLECT NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE AND ISSUED AN UPDATED FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

PREV DISC...
635 AM...JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES OT THE FORECASTS...MAINLY TEMPS
AND SKY. SKY WAS ADJUSTED BASED ON PROGRESS OF SCT-BKN STRATUS NWD
ACROSS THE GULF OF ME. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS DOES MAKE
IT INTO COASTAL AREAS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT MOSTLY AS SCT
CLOUDS...AND HAVE ADJ THE GRIDS TO REFLECT 40-50 PERCENT SKY
COVER.  OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE NE TODAY AND WILL SEE AN EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE SFC HIGH DOES NOSE BACK TO THE WEST A
BIT. THIS...COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR WHICH CONTINUE
TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE NE...HAS PREVENTED COASTAL STRATUS FROM
DEVELOPING...AND THIS WILL LKLY PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
TODAY. AS THE HIGH PULLS FURTHER E LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WILL SEE FLOW WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE SE...WHICH COULD
BRING SOME STRATUS IN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
HIGHS LOW TO MID 40S ON THE COAST AND WARNING TO AROUND 50 INLAND.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH THICKENING CIRRUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS N OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT...OF SORTS...ACROSS THE AREA.
SHRASN WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NH LATE THIS EVENING...AND
WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR ME ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 500MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY...AND THERE IS A BRIEF
SHOT OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LVLS
REMAINS QUITE DRY...SO QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NRN
ZONES. CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH WONT RULE OUT A SPKL OR FLURRY AROUND 12Z SAT.
MINS TONIGHT WILL LKLY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR RISING A BIT DURING THE PRE-DAWN.

THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA BY LATE SAT MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SOME
BREEZY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO. THIS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS QUICKLY...BUT WILL SLO KEEP THE
THREAT OF SOME UPSLOPE SHRASN IN THE MTNS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DECENT LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE NW FLOW...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
PRODUCE SOME GRAUPEL IN THE MTNS OR FOOTHILLS. MAXES SAT LOOK TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHERE 50ISH
LOOKS LIKE THE LIMIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START THE PERIOD. AS THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EWD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE
TO ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM WEAK SFC FLOW MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD PREVENT DEEPER RETURN OF MOISTURE NWD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
LOW CLOUDS/FOG UNTIL TUE...WHEN APPROACHING FNT FROM THE W
INCREASES SLY FLOW. ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE...FIRST FOR NH THEN ME AS TUE PROGRESSES
INTO WED.

THEREAFTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN
GREAT LAKES TROF AND WEAK LOW PRES OFFSHORE. TO SOME EXTENT ALL
MODELS CONSOLIDATE THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES AND TRY AND CUT IT
OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING WINDS. THE 18/00Z CMC IS THE WEAKEST
WITH PHASING...WHILE THE 18/00Z ECMWF IS THE NEXT QUICKEST TO LIFT
THE SYSTEM OUT. THE GFS HOWEVER WOULD HAVE THE SYSTEM CUT OFF NEAR
THE GULF OF ME...KEEPING UNSETTLED WX LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN NWP IS NOTORIOUSLY POOR WITH
HANDLING THESE TYPES OF FEATURES I SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM A
MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE VERY LEAST SHRA CHANCES ARE
INCREASING TUE INTO WED...WITH THE QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND HOW
QUICKLY THEY COME TO AN END.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHC
THAT COASTAL TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS IN COASTAL STRATUS AFTER
20Z...WITH A BETTER CHC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS
IMPROVE TO VFR SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH KHIE COULD SEE SOME TEMPO
MVFR IN SHRASN ON SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED. A
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRES SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT ERLY FLOW WILL BRING SWELL UP TO 5 OR 6 FT TODAY
OUTSIDE THE BAYS...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SAT MORNING...AND FLOW SWITCHES TO
NW...WHICH SHOULD KNOCK BACK THE SWELL.


LONG TERM..WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEVELOPING LOW PRES INVOF THE
GULF OF ME MAY AT LEAST BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH SEAS TO THE WATERS
AT THAT TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
I LOWERED THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND ADJUSTED THE
WINDS TO REFLECT NEAR METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE RIVER LEVELS SLOWLY RECEDING ATTM. PLEASE
CONSULT THE LATEST PWMFLSGYX AND PWMFLWGYX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES







000
FXUS61 KGYX 181628
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1228 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. MILDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

1225 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE PRESENT MESONET.

1015 AM...METARS AND GOES IMAGERY SHOW THE LOW CLOUD SPREADING
INLAND ON THE ONSHORE FLOW. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE...I MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS AS WELL AS OTHER 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE MESONET. I ADJUSTED WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ON SATURDAY TO REFLECT NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE AND ISSUED AN UPDATED FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

PREV DISC...
635 AM...JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES OT THE FORECASTS...MAINLY TEMPS
AND SKY. SKY WAS ADJUSTED BASED ON PROGRESS OF SCT-BKN STRATUS NWD
ACROSS THE GULF OF ME. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS DOES MAKE
IT INTO COASTAL AREAS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT MOSTLY AS SCT
CLOUDS...AND HAVE ADJ THE GRIDS TO REFLECT 40-50 PERCENT SKY
COVER.  OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE NE TODAY AND WILL SEE AN EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE SFC HIGH DOES NOSE BACK TO THE WEST A
BIT. THIS...COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR WHICH CONTINUE
TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE NE...HAS PREVENTED COASTAL STRATUS FROM
DEVELOPING...AND THIS WILL LKLY PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
TODAY. AS THE HIGH PULLS FURTHER E LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WILL SEE FLOW WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE SE...WHICH COULD
BRING SOME STRATUS IN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
HIGHS LOW TO MID 40S ON THE COAST AND WARNING TO AROUND 50 INLAND.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH THICKENING CIRRUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS N OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT...OF SORTS...ACROSS THE AREA.
SHRASN WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NH LATE THIS EVENING...AND
WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR ME ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 500MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY...AND THERE IS A BRIEF
SHOT OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LVLS
REMAINS QUITE DRY...SO QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NRN
ZONES. CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH WONT RULE OUT A SPKL OR FLURRY AROUND 12Z SAT.
MINS TONIGHT WILL LKLY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR RISING A BIT DURING THE PRE-DAWN.

THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA BY LATE SAT MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SOME
BREEZY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO. THIS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS QUICKLY...BUT WILL SLO KEEP THE
THREAT OF SOME UPSLOPE SHRASN IN THE MTNS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DECENT LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE NW FLOW...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
PRODUCE SOME GRAUPEL IN THE MTNS OR FOOTHILLS. MAXES SAT LOOK TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHERE 50ISH
LOOKS LIKE THE LIMIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START THE PERIOD. AS THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EWD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE
TO ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM WEAK SFC FLOW MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD PREVENT DEEPER RETURN OF MOISTURE NWD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
LOW CLOUDS/FOG UNTIL TUE...WHEN APPROACHING FNT FROM THE W
INCREASES SLY FLOW. ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE...FIRST FOR NH THEN ME AS TUE PROGRESSES
INTO WED.

THEREAFTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN
GREAT LAKES TROF AND WEAK LOW PRES OFFSHORE. TO SOME EXTENT ALL
MODELS CONSOLIDATE THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES AND TRY AND CUT IT
OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING WINDS. THE 18/00Z CMC IS THE WEAKEST
WITH PHASING...WHILE THE 18/00Z ECMWF IS THE NEXT QUICKEST TO LIFT
THE SYSTEM OUT. THE GFS HOWEVER WOULD HAVE THE SYSTEM CUT OFF NEAR
THE GULF OF ME...KEEPING UNSETTLED WX LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN NWP IS NOTORIOUSLY POOR WITH
HANDLING THESE TYPES OF FEATURES I SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM A
MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE VERY LEAST SHRA CHANCES ARE
INCREASING TUE INTO WED...WITH THE QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND HOW
QUICKLY THEY COME TO AN END.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHC
THAT COASTAL TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS IN COASTAL STRATUS AFTER
20Z...WITH A BETTER CHC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS
IMPROVE TO VFR SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH KHIE COULD SEE SOME TEMPO
MVFR IN SHRASN ON SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED. A
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRES SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT ERLY FLOW WILL BRING SWELL UP TO 5 OR 6 FT TODAY
OUTSIDE THE BAYS...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SAT MORNING...AND FLOW SWITCHES TO
NW...WHICH SHOULD KNOCK BACK THE SWELL.


LONG TERM..WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEVELOPING LOW PRES INVOF THE
GULF OF ME MAY AT LEAST BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH SEAS TO THE WATERS
AT THAT TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
I LOWERED THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND ADJUSTED THE
WINDS TO REFLECT NEAR METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE RIVER LEVELS SLOWLY RECEDING ATTM. PLEASE
CONSULT THE LATEST PWMFLSGYX AND PWMFLWGYX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES






000
FXUS61 KBOX 181443
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1043 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES IN THE EAST ALONG
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES...WHILE WESTERN AREAS HAVE MIX OF CLOUDS
AND AFTERNOON SUN.  A WEAKENING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER TO THE REGION SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

MARINE CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE MORNING. EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE EAST...BUT
WESTERN AREAS MAY SEE THIS WIND SHIFT TO SOUTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT MODEL RH FIELDS SHOW A GOOD SUPPLY OF
MOISTURE BELOW 925 MB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN EASTERN MASS...BUT
ALSO SOME THINNING OF THIS MOIST LAYER IN THE CT VALLEY. SO THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE THE CLOUDS THIN OUT AT
LEAST PARTIALLY DURING THIS AFTERNOON WHILE WORCESTER AND EAST
WILL REMAIN MAINLY UNDER THE CLOUDS.

THE ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE 39-40F WATER IN MASSACHUSETTS BAY SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE EAST WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE 40S /NORMAL 56-61/
WHILE WESTERN AREAS SUCH AS THE CT VALLEY WILL BENEFIT FROM THE
LIMITED AFTERNOON SUN AND REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE LAYER REMAINS
MAINLY ABOVE H6...WITH DWPT DEPRESSIONS EXCEEDING 10C FROM THE SFC
TO H6. LOW-MID LVL F-GEN IS ALSO VERY WEAK AS IT ARRIVES GIVEN IT
IS TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH RIDGING. THEREFORE...EXPECT LITTLE
FANFARE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE EXCEPT MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS AND W
WINDS INCREASING THROUGH SUNRISE. CONTINUE TO SUGGEST NIL POPS.
BKN-OVC CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...BUT
ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIRMASS SUGGESTS TEMPS STILL DROP TO THE LOW-MID
30S.

SAT...
HIGH PRES REGAINS CONTROL WITH COLD ADVECTION TO START THE DAY.
THIS COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW MIXING UNDER ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TO REACH HIGHER THAN H8...WHERE TEMPS ONLY DIP TO AROUND
-1C. COMBINE THIS WITH W DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO REBOUND INTO THE LOW 60S. LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE GIVEN H92
WINDS REACH AROUND 20-25 KT. THEREFORE...ALSO EXPECT WINDS AROUND
20 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH CHILLY NIGHTS/MILD DAYS
* WET WEATHER LIKELY SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH A CHILLY
SATURDAY NIGHT BEING REPLACED BY A MILD SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  LIGHT
WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDER OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA...TO MAINLY THE 30S ELSEWHERE.  ON
SUNDAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST
PROBABLY HOLDING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 30S.

MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WITH A MIXTURE
OF SUN AND CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS MODERATE CONSIDERABLY FROM SUNDAY/S
VALUES REACHING BETWEEN +6C TO +8C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO
REACH WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...TO PERHAPS EVEN
NEAR 70 IN A FEW LOCALES.  ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INCLUDING
BOSTON...ITS UNCERTAIN IF SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP IN THIS TIME
RANGE.  IF SEA BREEZES ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP...IT WOULD PROBABLY KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S...BUT THEY MAY END UP VERY LOCALIZED JUST
AFFECTING AREAS WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

A POTENTIALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM CANADA.  THIS WILL SPAWN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST.  AT THIS TIME RANGE...THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON STRENGTH/TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND TRACK/INTENSITY
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.  IT DOES LOOK LIKE A DECENT SHOT FOR AT
LEAST PERIOD OF WET WEATHER SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...

DRY WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SOME INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT MAY BE WINDY BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE INTO
SAT...

BROAD AREA OF 2500 FOOT CIGS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH
PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND CENTRAL HILLS HAVING CIGS AT
1500-2000 FEET. THESE CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
IN THE EAST AND THE CENTRAL HILLS. THE CT VALLEY MAY SEE THE
CLOUDS THIN TO ABOUT 50 PCT COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO
CONDITIONS MAY GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN SCT AND BKN.

WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST ACROSS MUCH OF MASS/RI/NE CT/SRN NH. WINDS
IN THE CT VALLEY MAY SHIFT SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON

AFTER THAT MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SAT ALTHOUGH WITH
INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME
MVFR/IFR FOG BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE W AT COASTAL TERMINALS
EARLY SAT MORNING. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO THE W SAT MORNING WITH WNW
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT BY MID DAY SAT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAIN ISSUE IS EXTENT AND
DURATION OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS MAY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR-IFR THRESHOLDS LATE TUE OR TUE NIGHT IN RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ALTHOUGH WINDS EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE 25 KT
THRESHOLD FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...A LINGERING SWELL WILL KEEP
SEAS AT LEAST 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT ON THE OCEAN WATERS
ESPECIALLY. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO 12Z SAT AT LEAST...WITH NEAR SHORE WATERS
DROPPING EARLIER.

WINDS TODAY BEING OUT OF THE NE...SHIFTING TO THE SW TONIGHT THEN
W DURING THE DAY ON SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.  WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ALONG WITH 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.  THIS MAY RESULT IN MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS/SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.  WE
MAY SEE MARGINAL SCA SEAS DEVELOP LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AS A RESULT OF
SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY IS THE THREE DAY MARK SINCE LAST APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN THIS FACT...WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE LOW 60S AND LOW DWPTS IN THE 20S...MIN RH VALUES
SHOULD DIP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH W WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 30 MPH. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE
REALIZED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MAIN STEM CT RIVER.
MOST POINTS HAVE REACHED CREST...BUT WILL TAKE MORE TIME TO DROP
BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER HAS DROPPED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT
MONTAGUE...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD ANY LONGER
AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED ALONG CT RIVER AT...

NORTHAMPTON
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/FRANK/DOODY
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 181435
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1035 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. MILDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

1015 AM...METARS AND GOES IMAGERY SHOW THE LOW CLOUD SPREADING
INLAND ON THE ONSHORE FLOW. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE...I MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS AS WELL AS OTHER 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE MESONET. I ADJUSTED WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ON SATURDAY TO REFLECT NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE AND ISSUED AN UPDATED FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

PREV DISC...
635 AM...JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES OT THE FORECASTS...MAINLY TEMPS
AND SKY. SKY WAS ADJUSTED BASED ON PROGRESS OF SCT-BKN STRATUS NWD
ACROSS THE GULF OF ME. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS DOES MAKE
IT INTO COASTAL AREAS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT MOSTLY AS SCT
CLOUDS...AND HAVE ADJ THE GRIDS TO REFLECT 40-50 PERCENT SKY
COVER.  OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE NE TODAY AND WILL SEE AN EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE SFC HIGH DOES NOSE BACK TO THE WEST A
BIT. THIS...COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR WHICH CONTINUE
TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE NE...HAS PREVENTED COASTAL STRATUS FROM
DEVELOPING...AND THIS WILL LKLY PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
TODAY. AS THE HIGH PULLS FURTHER E LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WILL SEE FLOW WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE SE...WHICH COULD
BRING SOME STRATUS IN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
HIGHS LOW TO MID 40S ON THE COAST AND WARNING TO AROUND 50 INLAND.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH THICKENING CIRRUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS N OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT...OF SORTS...ACROSS THE AREA.
SHRASN WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NH LATE THIS EVENING...AND
WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR ME ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 500MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY...AND THERE IS A BRIEF
SHOT OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LVLS
REMAINS QUITE DRY...SO QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NRN
ZONES. CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH WONT RULE OUT A SPKL OR FLURRY AROUND 12Z SAT.
MINS TONIGHT WILL LKLY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR RISING A BIT DURING THE PRE-DAWN.

THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA BY LATE SAT MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SOME
BREEZY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO. THIS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS QUICKLY...BUT WILL SLO KEEP THE
THREAT OF SOME UPSLOPE SHRASN IN THE MTNS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DECENT LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE NW FLOW...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
PRODUCE SOME GRAUPEL IN THE MTNS OR FOOTHILLS. MAXES SAT LOOK TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHERE 50ISH
LOOKS LIKE THE LIMIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START THE PERIOD. AS THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EWD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE
TO ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM WEAK SFC FLOW MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD PREVENT DEEPER RETURN OF MOISTURE NWD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
LOW CLOUDS/FOG UNTIL TUE...WHEN APPROACHING FNT FROM THE W
INCREASES SLY FLOW. ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE...FIRST FOR NH THEN ME AS TUE PROGRESSES
INTO WED.

THEREAFTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN
GREAT LAKES TROF AND WEAK LOW PRES OFFSHORE. TO SOME EXTENT ALL
MODELS CONSOLIDATE THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES AND TRY AND CUT IT
OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING WINDS. THE 18/00Z CMC IS THE WEAKEST
WITH PHASING...WHILE THE 18/00Z ECMWF IS THE NEXT QUICKEST TO LIFT
THE SYSTEM OUT. THE GFS HOWEVER WOULD HAVE THE SYSTEM CUT OFF NEAR
THE GULF OF ME...KEEPING UNSETTLED WX LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN NWP IS NOTORIOUSLY POOR WITH
HANDLING THESE TYPES OF FEATURES I SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM A
MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE VERY LEAST SHRA CHANCES ARE
INCREASING TUE INTO WED...WITH THE QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND HOW
QUICKLY THEY COME TO AN END.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHC
THAT COASTAL TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS IN COASTAL STRATUS AFTER
20Z...WITH A BETTER CHC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS
IMPROVE TO VFR SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH KHIE COULD SEE SOME TEMPO
MVFR IN SHRASN ON SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED. A
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRES SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT ERLY FLOW WILL BRING SWELL UP TO 5 OR 6 FT TODAY
OUTSIDE THE BAYS...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SAT MORNING...AND FLOW SWITCHES TO
NW...WHICH SHOULD KNOCK BACK THE SWELL.


LONG TERM..WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEVELOPING LOW PRES INVOF THE
GULF OF ME MAY AT LEAST BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH SEAS TO THE WATERS
AT THAT TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
I LOWERED THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND ADJUSTED THE
WINDS TO REFLECT NEAR METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE RIVER LEVELS SLOWLY RECEDING ATTM. PLEASE
CONSULT THE LATEST PWMFLSGYX AND PWMFLWGYX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS






000
FXUS61 KGYX 181435
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1035 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. MILDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

1015 AM...METARS AND GOES IMAGERY SHOW THE LOW CLOUD SPREADING
INLAND ON THE ONSHORE FLOW. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE...I MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS AS WELL AS OTHER 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE MESONET. I ADJUSTED WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ON SATURDAY TO REFLECT NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE AND ISSUED AN UPDATED FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

PREV DISC...
635 AM...JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES OT THE FORECASTS...MAINLY TEMPS
AND SKY. SKY WAS ADJUSTED BASED ON PROGRESS OF SCT-BKN STRATUS NWD
ACROSS THE GULF OF ME. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS DOES MAKE
IT INTO COASTAL AREAS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT MOSTLY AS SCT
CLOUDS...AND HAVE ADJ THE GRIDS TO REFLECT 40-50 PERCENT SKY
COVER.  OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE NE TODAY AND WILL SEE AN EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE SFC HIGH DOES NOSE BACK TO THE WEST A
BIT. THIS...COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR WHICH CONTINUE
TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE NE...HAS PREVENTED COASTAL STRATUS FROM
DEVELOPING...AND THIS WILL LKLY PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
TODAY. AS THE HIGH PULLS FURTHER E LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WILL SEE FLOW WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE SE...WHICH COULD
BRING SOME STRATUS IN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
HIGHS LOW TO MID 40S ON THE COAST AND WARNING TO AROUND 50 INLAND.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH THICKENING CIRRUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS N OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT...OF SORTS...ACROSS THE AREA.
SHRASN WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NH LATE THIS EVENING...AND
WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR ME ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 500MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY...AND THERE IS A BRIEF
SHOT OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LVLS
REMAINS QUITE DRY...SO QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NRN
ZONES. CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH WONT RULE OUT A SPKL OR FLURRY AROUND 12Z SAT.
MINS TONIGHT WILL LKLY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR RISING A BIT DURING THE PRE-DAWN.

THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA BY LATE SAT MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SOME
BREEZY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO. THIS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS QUICKLY...BUT WILL SLO KEEP THE
THREAT OF SOME UPSLOPE SHRASN IN THE MTNS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DECENT LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE NW FLOW...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
PRODUCE SOME GRAUPEL IN THE MTNS OR FOOTHILLS. MAXES SAT LOOK TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHERE 50ISH
LOOKS LIKE THE LIMIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START THE PERIOD. AS THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EWD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE
TO ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM WEAK SFC FLOW MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD PREVENT DEEPER RETURN OF MOISTURE NWD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
LOW CLOUDS/FOG UNTIL TUE...WHEN APPROACHING FNT FROM THE W
INCREASES SLY FLOW. ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE...FIRST FOR NH THEN ME AS TUE PROGRESSES
INTO WED.

THEREAFTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN
GREAT LAKES TROF AND WEAK LOW PRES OFFSHORE. TO SOME EXTENT ALL
MODELS CONSOLIDATE THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES AND TRY AND CUT IT
OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING WINDS. THE 18/00Z CMC IS THE WEAKEST
WITH PHASING...WHILE THE 18/00Z ECMWF IS THE NEXT QUICKEST TO LIFT
THE SYSTEM OUT. THE GFS HOWEVER WOULD HAVE THE SYSTEM CUT OFF NEAR
THE GULF OF ME...KEEPING UNSETTLED WX LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN NWP IS NOTORIOUSLY POOR WITH
HANDLING THESE TYPES OF FEATURES I SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM A
MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE VERY LEAST SHRA CHANCES ARE
INCREASING TUE INTO WED...WITH THE QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND HOW
QUICKLY THEY COME TO AN END.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHC
THAT COASTAL TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS IN COASTAL STRATUS AFTER
20Z...WITH A BETTER CHC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS
IMPROVE TO VFR SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH KHIE COULD SEE SOME TEMPO
MVFR IN SHRASN ON SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED. A
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRES SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT ERLY FLOW WILL BRING SWELL UP TO 5 OR 6 FT TODAY
OUTSIDE THE BAYS...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SAT MORNING...AND FLOW SWITCHES TO
NW...WHICH SHOULD KNOCK BACK THE SWELL.


LONG TERM..WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEVELOPING LOW PRES INVOF THE
GULF OF ME MAY AT LEAST BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH SEAS TO THE WATERS
AT THAT TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
I LOWERED THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND ADJUSTED THE
WINDS TO REFLECT NEAR METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE RIVER LEVELS SLOWLY RECEDING ATTM. PLEASE
CONSULT THE LATEST PWMFLSGYX AND PWMFLWGYX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS






000
FXUS61 KGYX 181435
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1035 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. MILDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

1015 AM...METARS AND GOES IMAGERY SHOW THE LOW CLOUD SPREADING
INLAND ON THE ONSHORE FLOW. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE...I MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS AS WELL AS OTHER 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE MESONET. I ADJUSTED WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ON SATURDAY TO REFLECT NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE AND ISSUED AN UPDATED FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

PREV DISC...
635 AM...JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES OT THE FORECASTS...MAINLY TEMPS
AND SKY. SKY WAS ADJUSTED BASED ON PROGRESS OF SCT-BKN STRATUS NWD
ACROSS THE GULF OF ME. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS DOES MAKE
IT INTO COASTAL AREAS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT MOSTLY AS SCT
CLOUDS...AND HAVE ADJ THE GRIDS TO REFLECT 40-50 PERCENT SKY
COVER.  OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE NE TODAY AND WILL SEE AN EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE SFC HIGH DOES NOSE BACK TO THE WEST A
BIT. THIS...COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR WHICH CONTINUE
TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE NE...HAS PREVENTED COASTAL STRATUS FROM
DEVELOPING...AND THIS WILL LKLY PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
TODAY. AS THE HIGH PULLS FURTHER E LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WILL SEE FLOW WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE SE...WHICH COULD
BRING SOME STRATUS IN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
HIGHS LOW TO MID 40S ON THE COAST AND WARNING TO AROUND 50 INLAND.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH THICKENING CIRRUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS N OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT...OF SORTS...ACROSS THE AREA.
SHRASN WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NH LATE THIS EVENING...AND
WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR ME ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 500MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY...AND THERE IS A BRIEF
SHOT OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LVLS
REMAINS QUITE DRY...SO QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NRN
ZONES. CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH WONT RULE OUT A SPKL OR FLURRY AROUND 12Z SAT.
MINS TONIGHT WILL LKLY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR RISING A BIT DURING THE PRE-DAWN.

THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA BY LATE SAT MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SOME
BREEZY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO. THIS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS QUICKLY...BUT WILL SLO KEEP THE
THREAT OF SOME UPSLOPE SHRASN IN THE MTNS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DECENT LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE NW FLOW...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
PRODUCE SOME GRAUPEL IN THE MTNS OR FOOTHILLS. MAXES SAT LOOK TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHERE 50ISH
LOOKS LIKE THE LIMIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START THE PERIOD. AS THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EWD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE
TO ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM WEAK SFC FLOW MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD PREVENT DEEPER RETURN OF MOISTURE NWD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
LOW CLOUDS/FOG UNTIL TUE...WHEN APPROACHING FNT FROM THE W
INCREASES SLY FLOW. ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE...FIRST FOR NH THEN ME AS TUE PROGRESSES
INTO WED.

THEREAFTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN
GREAT LAKES TROF AND WEAK LOW PRES OFFSHORE. TO SOME EXTENT ALL
MODELS CONSOLIDATE THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES AND TRY AND CUT IT
OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING WINDS. THE 18/00Z CMC IS THE WEAKEST
WITH PHASING...WHILE THE 18/00Z ECMWF IS THE NEXT QUICKEST TO LIFT
THE SYSTEM OUT. THE GFS HOWEVER WOULD HAVE THE SYSTEM CUT OFF NEAR
THE GULF OF ME...KEEPING UNSETTLED WX LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN NWP IS NOTORIOUSLY POOR WITH
HANDLING THESE TYPES OF FEATURES I SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM A
MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE VERY LEAST SHRA CHANCES ARE
INCREASING TUE INTO WED...WITH THE QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND HOW
QUICKLY THEY COME TO AN END.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHC
THAT COASTAL TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS IN COASTAL STRATUS AFTER
20Z...WITH A BETTER CHC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS
IMPROVE TO VFR SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH KHIE COULD SEE SOME TEMPO
MVFR IN SHRASN ON SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED. A
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRES SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT ERLY FLOW WILL BRING SWELL UP TO 5 OR 6 FT TODAY
OUTSIDE THE BAYS...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SAT MORNING...AND FLOW SWITCHES TO
NW...WHICH SHOULD KNOCK BACK THE SWELL.


LONG TERM..WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEVELOPING LOW PRES INVOF THE
GULF OF ME MAY AT LEAST BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH SEAS TO THE WATERS
AT THAT TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
I LOWERED THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND ADJUSTED THE
WINDS TO REFLECT NEAR METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE RIVER LEVELS SLOWLY RECEDING ATTM. PLEASE
CONSULT THE LATEST PWMFLSGYX AND PWMFLWGYX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS






000
FXUS61 KGYX 181435
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1035 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. MILDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

1015 AM...METARS AND GOES IMAGERY SHOW THE LOW CLOUD SPREADING
INLAND ON THE ONSHORE FLOW. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE...I MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS AS WELL AS OTHER 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE MESONET. I ADJUSTED WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ON SATURDAY TO REFLECT NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE AND ISSUED AN UPDATED FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

PREV DISC...
635 AM...JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES OT THE FORECASTS...MAINLY TEMPS
AND SKY. SKY WAS ADJUSTED BASED ON PROGRESS OF SCT-BKN STRATUS NWD
ACROSS THE GULF OF ME. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS DOES MAKE
IT INTO COASTAL AREAS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT MOSTLY AS SCT
CLOUDS...AND HAVE ADJ THE GRIDS TO REFLECT 40-50 PERCENT SKY
COVER.  OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE NE TODAY AND WILL SEE AN EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE SFC HIGH DOES NOSE BACK TO THE WEST A
BIT. THIS...COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR WHICH CONTINUE
TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE NE...HAS PREVENTED COASTAL STRATUS FROM
DEVELOPING...AND THIS WILL LKLY PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
TODAY. AS THE HIGH PULLS FURTHER E LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WILL SEE FLOW WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE SE...WHICH COULD
BRING SOME STRATUS IN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
HIGHS LOW TO MID 40S ON THE COAST AND WARNING TO AROUND 50 INLAND.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH THICKENING CIRRUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS N OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT...OF SORTS...ACROSS THE AREA.
SHRASN WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NH LATE THIS EVENING...AND
WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR ME ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 500MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY...AND THERE IS A BRIEF
SHOT OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LVLS
REMAINS QUITE DRY...SO QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NRN
ZONES. CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH WONT RULE OUT A SPKL OR FLURRY AROUND 12Z SAT.
MINS TONIGHT WILL LKLY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR RISING A BIT DURING THE PRE-DAWN.

THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA BY LATE SAT MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SOME
BREEZY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO. THIS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS QUICKLY...BUT WILL SLO KEEP THE
THREAT OF SOME UPSLOPE SHRASN IN THE MTNS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DECENT LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE NW FLOW...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
PRODUCE SOME GRAUPEL IN THE MTNS OR FOOTHILLS. MAXES SAT LOOK TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHERE 50ISH
LOOKS LIKE THE LIMIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START THE PERIOD. AS THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EWD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE
TO ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM WEAK SFC FLOW MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD PREVENT DEEPER RETURN OF MOISTURE NWD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
LOW CLOUDS/FOG UNTIL TUE...WHEN APPROACHING FNT FROM THE W
INCREASES SLY FLOW. ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE...FIRST FOR NH THEN ME AS TUE PROGRESSES
INTO WED.

THEREAFTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN
GREAT LAKES TROF AND WEAK LOW PRES OFFSHORE. TO SOME EXTENT ALL
MODELS CONSOLIDATE THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES AND TRY AND CUT IT
OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING WINDS. THE 18/00Z CMC IS THE WEAKEST
WITH PHASING...WHILE THE 18/00Z ECMWF IS THE NEXT QUICKEST TO LIFT
THE SYSTEM OUT. THE GFS HOWEVER WOULD HAVE THE SYSTEM CUT OFF NEAR
THE GULF OF ME...KEEPING UNSETTLED WX LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN NWP IS NOTORIOUSLY POOR WITH
HANDLING THESE TYPES OF FEATURES I SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM A
MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE VERY LEAST SHRA CHANCES ARE
INCREASING TUE INTO WED...WITH THE QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND HOW
QUICKLY THEY COME TO AN END.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHC
THAT COASTAL TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS IN COASTAL STRATUS AFTER
20Z...WITH A BETTER CHC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS
IMPROVE TO VFR SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH KHIE COULD SEE SOME TEMPO
MVFR IN SHRASN ON SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED. A
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRES SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT ERLY FLOW WILL BRING SWELL UP TO 5 OR 6 FT TODAY
OUTSIDE THE BAYS...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SAT MORNING...AND FLOW SWITCHES TO
NW...WHICH SHOULD KNOCK BACK THE SWELL.


LONG TERM..WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEVELOPING LOW PRES INVOF THE
GULF OF ME MAY AT LEAST BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH SEAS TO THE WATERS
AT THAT TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
I LOWERED THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND ADJUSTED THE
WINDS TO REFLECT NEAR METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE RIVER LEVELS SLOWLY RECEDING ATTM. PLEASE
CONSULT THE LATEST PWMFLSGYX AND PWMFLWGYX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS






000
FXUS61 KBOX 181105
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
705 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL ALONG COASTAL
AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GRAY SKIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.  LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER TO
THE REGION SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

705 AM UPDATE...

A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING.  THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY TODAY WILL BE THE
EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND HOW FAR WEST THEY PROGRESS.  FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL IN CLOUD COVER TODAY.  WE DO THINK
THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST WITH MORE IN
THE WAY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY LATEST MODEL CROSS SECTIONS...BUT LOW CLOUDS CAN OFTEN BE A
CHALLENGE FOR THE MODELS SO LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

INVERTED RIDGING FROM HIGH PRES CENTER IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
CONTINUES TO YIELD A DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE
FROM THE DELMARVA TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS COMBINING WITH E TO NE
FLOW...DRAWING AIR ACROSS THE WATERS WHERE SSTS ARE ONLY IN THE
LOW 40S. WITH THIS FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE RIDGE
SHIFTS E LATE TODAY...THE TRAJECTORY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP AREAS
WITHIN BOTH THE I-495 AND I-95 CORRIDORS MUCH COLDER THAN AREAS
FURTHER W. THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S MAINLY
E OF THESE HIGHWAYS WHILE HIGHS FURTHER W WILL BREAK INTO THE LOW-
MID 50S IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE LAYER REMAINS
MAINLY ABOVE H6...WITH DWPT DEPRESSIONS EXCEEDING 10C FROM THE SFC
TO H6. LOW-MID LVL F-GEN IS ALSO VERY WEAK AS IT ARRIVES GIVEN IT
IS TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH RIDGING. THEREFORE...EXPECT LITTLE
FANFARE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE EXCEPT MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS AND W
WINDS INCREASING THROUGH SUNRISE. CONTINUE TO SUGGEST NIL POPS.
BKN-OVC CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...BUT
ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIRMASS SUGGESTS TEMPS STILL DROP TO THE LOW-MID
30S.

SAT...
HIGH PRES REGAINS CONTROL WITH COLD ADVECTION TO START THE DAY.
THIS COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW MIXING UNDER ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TO REACH HIGHER THAN H8...WHERE TEMPS ONLY DIP TO AROUND
-1C. COMBINE THIS WITH W DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO REBOUND INTO THE LOW 60S. LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE GIVEN H92
WINDS REACH AROUND 20-25 KT. THEREFORE...ALSO EXPECT WINDS AROUND
20 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH CHILLY NIGHTS/MILD DAYS
* WET WEATHER LIKELY SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH A CHILLY
SATURDAY NIGHT BEING REPLACED BY A MILD SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  LIGHT
WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDER OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA...TO MAINLY THE 30S ELSEWHERE.  ON
SUNDAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST
PROBABLY HOLDING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 30S.

MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WITH A MIXTURE
OF SUN AND CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS MODERATE CONSIDERABLY FROM SUNDAY/S
VALUES REACHING BETWEEN +6C TO +8C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO
REACH WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...TO PERHAPS EVEN
NEAR 70 IN A FEW LOCALES.  ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INCLUDING
BOSTON...ITS UNCERTAIN IF SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP IN THIS TIME
RANGE.  IF SEA BREEZES ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP...IT WOULD PROBABLY KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S...BUT THEY MAY END UP VERY LOCALIZED JUST
AFFECTING AREAS WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

A POTENTIALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM CANADA.  THIS WILL SPAWN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST.  AT THIS TIME RANGE...THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON STRENGTH/TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND TRACK/INTENSITY
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.  IT DOES LOOK LIKE A DECENT SHOT FOR AT
LEAST PERIOD OF WET WEATHER SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...

DRY WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SOME INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT MAY BE WINDY BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE INTO
SAT...

SCT TO BKN MVFR CIGS HAVE OVERSPREAD EASTERN SECTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND
EARLY THIS MORNING.  THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN EXTENT OF LOW
CLOUDS AND HOW FAR WEST THEY WILL VENTURE.  FOR NOW WE MAY SEE THEM
ADVANCE WEST OF A WORCESTER TO PROVIDENCE LINE FOR A TIME...BUT
PROBABLY STAY EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS
BELOW NORMAL AND LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

BY EARLY EVENING...WINDS W OF THE LINE SHIFT FROM THE S TO W AND
WINDS E OF THE LINE BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE S...SO ANY LINGERING MVFR
CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO SCT OUT.

AFTER THAT MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SAT ALTHOUGH WITH
INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME
MVFR/IFR FOG BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE W AT COASTAL TERMINALS
EARLY SAT MORNING. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO THE W SAT MORNING WITH WNW
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT BY MID DAY SAT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAIN ISSUE IS EXTENT AND
DURATION OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS MAY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR-IFR THRESHOLDS LATE TUE OR TUE NIGHT IN RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ALTHOUGH WINDS EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE 25 KT
THRESHOLD FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...A LINGERING SWELL WILL KEEP
SEAS AT LEAST 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT ON THE OCEAN WATERS
ESPECIALLY. THEREFORE WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZ SEAS
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO 12Z SAT AT LEAST...WITH NEAR SHORE WATERS
DROPPING EARLIER.

WINDS TODAY BEING OUT OF THE N-NE...SHIFTING TO THE SW TONIGHT
THEN W DURING THE DAY ON SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.  WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ALONG WITH 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.  THIS MAY RESULT IN MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS/SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.  WE
MAY SEE MARGINAL SCA SEAS DEVELOP LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AS A RESULT OF
SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY IS THE THREE DAY MARK SINCE LAST APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN THIS FACT...WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE LOW 60S AND LOW DWPTS IN THE 20S...MIN RH VALUES
SHOULD DIP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH W WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 30 MPH. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE
REALIZED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MAIN STEM CT RIVER.
MOST POINTS HAVE REACHED CREST...BUT WILL TAKE MORE TIME TO DROP
BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER HAS DROPPED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT
MONTAGUE...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD ANY LONGER
AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED ALONG CT RIVER AT...

NORTHAMPTON
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...DOODY/FRANK
FIRE WEATHER...DOODY
HYDROLOGY...DOODY




000
FXUS61 KGYX 181038
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
638 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...PROVIDE A THREAT OF SHOWERS. MILDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
635 AM...JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES OT THE FORECASTS...MAINLY TEMPS
AND SKY. SKY WAS ADJUSTED BASED ON PROGRESS OF SCT-BKN STRATUS NWD
ACROSS THE GULF OF ME. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS DOES MAKE
IT INTO COASTAL AREAS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT MOSTLY AS SCT
CLOUDS...AND HAVE ADJ THE GRIDS TO REFLECT 40-50 PERCENT SKY
COVER.  OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE NE TODAY AND WILL SEE AN EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE SFC HIGH DOES NOSE BACK TO THE WEST A
BIT. THIS...COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR WHICH CONTINUE
TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE NE...HAS PREVENTED COASTAL STRATUS FROM
DEVELOPING...AND THIS WILL LKLY PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
TODAY. AS THE HIGH PULLS FURTHER E LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WILL SEE FLOW WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE SE...WHICH COULD
BRING SOME STRATUS IN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
HIGHS LOW TO MID 40S ON THE COAST AND WARNING TO AROUND 50 INLAND.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH THICKENING CIRRUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS N OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT...OF SORTS...ACROSS THE AREA.
SHRASN WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NH LATE THIS EVENING...AND
WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR ME ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 500MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY...AND THERE IS A BRIEF
SHOT OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LVLS
REMAINS QUITE DRY...SO QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NRN
ZONES. CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH WONT RULE OUT A SPKL OR FLURRY AROUND 12Z SAT.
MINS TONIGHT WILL LKLY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR RISING A BIT DURING THE PRE-DAWN.

THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA BY LATE SAT MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SOME
BREEZY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO. THIS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS QUICKLY...BUT WILL SLO KEEP THE
THREAT OF SOME UPSLOPE SHRASN IN THE MTNS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DECENT LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE NW FLOW...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
PRODUCE SOME GRAUPEL IN THE MTNS OR FOOTHILLS. MAXES SAT LOOK TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHERE 50ISH
LOOKS LIKE THE LIMIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START THE PERIOD. AS THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EWD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE
TO ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM WEAK SFC FLOW MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD PREVENT DEEPER RETURN OF MOISTURE NWD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
LOW CLOUDS/FOG UNTIL TUE...WHEN APPROACHING FNT FROM THE W
INCREASES SLY FLOW. ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE...FIRST FOR NH THEN ME AS TUE PROGRESSES
INTO WED.

THEREAFTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN
GREAT LAKES TROF AND WEAK LOW PRES OFFSHORE. TO SOME EXTENT ALL
MODELS CONSOLIDATE THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES AND TRY AND CUT IT
OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING WINDS. THE 18/00Z CMC IS THE WEAKEST
WITH PHASING...WHILE THE 18/00Z ECMWF IS THE NEXT QUICKEST TO LIFT
THE SYSTEM OUT. THE GFS HOWEVER WOULD HAVE THE SYSTEM CUT OFF NEAR
THE GULF OF ME...KEEPING UNSETTLED WX LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN NWP IS NOTORIOUSLY POOR WITH
HANDLING THESE TYPES OF FEATURES I SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM A
MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE VERY LEAST SHRA CHANCES ARE
INCREASING TUE INTO WED...WITH THE QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND HOW
QUICKLY THEY COME TO AN END.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHC
THAT COASTAL TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS IN COASTAL STRATUS AFTER
20Z...WITH A BETTER CHC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS
IMPROVE TO VFR SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH KHIE COULD SEE SOME TEMPO
MVFR IN SHRASN ON SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED. A
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRES SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT ERLY FLOW WILL BRING SWELL UP TO 5 OR 6 FT TODAY
OUTSIDE THE BAYS...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SAT MORNING...AND FLOW SWITCHES TO
NW...WHICH SHOULD KNOCK BACK THE SWELL.


LONG TERM..WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEVELOPING LOW PRES INVOF THE
GULF OF ME MAY AT LEAST BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH SEAS TO THE WATERS
AT THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE RIVER LEVELS SLOWLY RECEDING ATTM. FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE...THOUGH MAY BE POSSIBLE TO DROP THEM FOR
THE ANDROSCOGGIN AND KENNEBEC THIS MORNING. CT RIVER WILL REMAIN
ABOVE FLOOD POSSIBLY INTO SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KGYX 181038
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
638 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...PROVIDE A THREAT OF SHOWERS. MILDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
635 AM...JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES OT THE FORECASTS...MAINLY TEMPS
AND SKY. SKY WAS ADJUSTED BASED ON PROGRESS OF SCT-BKN STRATUS NWD
ACROSS THE GULF OF ME. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS DOES MAKE
IT INTO COASTAL AREAS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT MOSTLY AS SCT
CLOUDS...AND HAVE ADJ THE GRIDS TO REFLECT 40-50 PERCENT SKY
COVER.  OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE NE TODAY AND WILL SEE AN EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE SFC HIGH DOES NOSE BACK TO THE WEST A
BIT. THIS...COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR WHICH CONTINUE
TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE NE...HAS PREVENTED COASTAL STRATUS FROM
DEVELOPING...AND THIS WILL LKLY PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
TODAY. AS THE HIGH PULLS FURTHER E LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WILL SEE FLOW WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE SE...WHICH COULD
BRING SOME STRATUS IN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
HIGHS LOW TO MID 40S ON THE COAST AND WARNING TO AROUND 50 INLAND.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH THICKENING CIRRUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS N OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT...OF SORTS...ACROSS THE AREA.
SHRASN WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NH LATE THIS EVENING...AND
WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR ME ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 500MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY...AND THERE IS A BRIEF
SHOT OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LVLS
REMAINS QUITE DRY...SO QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NRN
ZONES. CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH WONT RULE OUT A SPKL OR FLURRY AROUND 12Z SAT.
MINS TONIGHT WILL LKLY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR RISING A BIT DURING THE PRE-DAWN.

THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA BY LATE SAT MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SOME
BREEZY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO. THIS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS QUICKLY...BUT WILL SLO KEEP THE
THREAT OF SOME UPSLOPE SHRASN IN THE MTNS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DECENT LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE NW FLOW...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
PRODUCE SOME GRAUPEL IN THE MTNS OR FOOTHILLS. MAXES SAT LOOK TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHERE 50ISH
LOOKS LIKE THE LIMIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START THE PERIOD. AS THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EWD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE
TO ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM WEAK SFC FLOW MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD PREVENT DEEPER RETURN OF MOISTURE NWD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
LOW CLOUDS/FOG UNTIL TUE...WHEN APPROACHING FNT FROM THE W
INCREASES SLY FLOW. ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE...FIRST FOR NH THEN ME AS TUE PROGRESSES
INTO WED.

THEREAFTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN
GREAT LAKES TROF AND WEAK LOW PRES OFFSHORE. TO SOME EXTENT ALL
MODELS CONSOLIDATE THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES AND TRY AND CUT IT
OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING WINDS. THE 18/00Z CMC IS THE WEAKEST
WITH PHASING...WHILE THE 18/00Z ECMWF IS THE NEXT QUICKEST TO LIFT
THE SYSTEM OUT. THE GFS HOWEVER WOULD HAVE THE SYSTEM CUT OFF NEAR
THE GULF OF ME...KEEPING UNSETTLED WX LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN NWP IS NOTORIOUSLY POOR WITH
HANDLING THESE TYPES OF FEATURES I SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM A
MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE VERY LEAST SHRA CHANCES ARE
INCREASING TUE INTO WED...WITH THE QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND HOW
QUICKLY THEY COME TO AN END.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHC
THAT COASTAL TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS IN COASTAL STRATUS AFTER
20Z...WITH A BETTER CHC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS
IMPROVE TO VFR SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH KHIE COULD SEE SOME TEMPO
MVFR IN SHRASN ON SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED. A
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRES SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT ERLY FLOW WILL BRING SWELL UP TO 5 OR 6 FT TODAY
OUTSIDE THE BAYS...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SAT MORNING...AND FLOW SWITCHES TO
NW...WHICH SHOULD KNOCK BACK THE SWELL.


LONG TERM..WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEVELOPING LOW PRES INVOF THE
GULF OF ME MAY AT LEAST BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH SEAS TO THE WATERS
AT THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE RIVER LEVELS SLOWLY RECEDING ATTM. FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE...THOUGH MAY BE POSSIBLE TO DROP THEM FOR
THE ANDROSCOGGIN AND KENNEBEC THIS MORNING. CT RIVER WILL REMAIN
ABOVE FLOOD POSSIBLY INTO SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KBOX 180832
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
432 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL ALONG COASTAL
AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GRAY SKIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.  LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER TO
THE REGION SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INVERTED RIDGING FROM HIGH PRES CENTER IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
CONTINUES TO YIELD A DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE
FROM THE DELMARVA TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS COMBINING WITH E TO NE
FLOW...DRAWING AIR ACROSS THE WATERS WHERE SSTS ARE ONLY IN THE
LOW 40S. WITH THIS FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE RIDGE
SHIFTS E LATE TODAY...THE TRAJECTORY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP AREAS
WITHIN BOTH THE I-495 AND I-95 CORRIDORS MUCH COLDER THAN AREAS
FURTHER W. THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S MAINLY
E OF THESE HIGHWAYS WHILE HIGHS FURTHER W WILL BREAK INTO THE LOW-
MID 50S.

REGARDING MARINE SC AND DRIZZLE CHANCES...MODELS STRUGGLING TO
INITIALIZE CURRENT BAND OF SC S OF LI AND INTO NJ AND CONTINUES TO
TRY AND DEVELOP ANOTHER BAND E OF MASS BAY. HOWEVER...AM NOTING
THAT DWPT DEPRESSIONS IN THE LOW LVLS ARE A BIT WIDER THAN
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWING AND WINDS HAVE BEEN MORE N OF E. CMC
REGIONAL BL SETUP DOES STILL SUGGEST SC FORMS E OF MASS BAY AROUND
12Z...SLIDING INLAND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND IT IS THE
ONLY MODEL HANDLING CURRENT BAND S OF LONG ISLAND. GIVEN ALL OF
THESE PROS/CONS REGARDING THE SC DEVELOPMENT...DIMINISHED THE
COVERAGE BUT CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY UNTIL WINDS
SHIFT MORE TO THE W BY LATE IN THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENED
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...SHOULD NOTE THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT
HIGH ON WHETHER IT OCCURS AT ALL...OR ITS EXACT TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE LAYER REMAINS
MAINLY ABOVE H6...WITH DWPT DEPRESSIONS EXCEEDING 10C FROM THE SFC
TO H6. LOW-MID LVL F-GEN IS ALSO VERY WEAK AS IT ARRIVES GIVEN IT
IS TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH RIDGING. THEREFORE...EXPECT LITTLE
FANFARE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE EXCEPT MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS AND W
WINDS INCREASING THROUGH SUNRISE. CONTINUE TO SUGGEST NIL POPS.
BKN-OVC CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...BUT
ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIRMASS SUGGESTS TEMPS STILL DROP TO THE LOW-MID
30S.

SAT...
HIGH PRES REGAINS CONTROL WITH COLD ADVECTION TO START THE DAY.
THIS COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW MIXING UNDER ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TO REACH HIGHER THAN H8...WHERE TEMPS ONLY DIP TO AROUND
-1C. COMBINE THIS WITH W DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO REBOUND INTO THE LOW 60S. LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE GIVEN H92
WINDS REACH AROUND 20-25 KT. THEREFORE...ALSO EXPECT WINDS AROUND
20 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH CHILLY NIGHTS/MILD DAYS
* WET WEATHER LIKELY SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH A COOL
SATURDAY NIGHT BEING REPLACED BY A MILD SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  LIGHT
WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDER OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA...TO MAINLY THE 30S ELSEWHERE.  ON
SUNDAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST
PROBABLY HOLDING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 30S.

MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WITH A MIXTURE
OF SUN AND CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS MODERATE CONSIDERABLY FROM SUNDAY/S
VALUES REACHING BETWEEN +6C TO +8C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO
REACH WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...TO PERHAPS EVEN
NEAR 70 IN A FEW LOCALES.  ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INCLUDING
BOSTON...ITS UNCERTAIN IF SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP IN THIS TIME
RANGE.  IF SEA BREEZES ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP...IT WOULD PROBABLY KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S...BUT THEY MAY END UP VERY LOCALIZED JUST
AFFECTING AREAS WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

A POTENTIALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM CANADA.  THIS WILL SPAWN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST.  AT THIS TIME RANGE...THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON STRENGTH/TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND TRACK/INTENSITY
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.  IT DOES LOOK LIKE A DECENT SHOT FOR AT
LEAST PERIOD OF WET WEATHER SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...

DRY WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SOME INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT MAY BE WINDY BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGHER CONFIDENCE INTO
SAT...

THERE IS THE CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CIGS WRAPPING INTO
AREAS S AND E OF A WST-PVD-BOS LINE. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY
HOW DEEP IT GETS...BUT ONCE IT OCCURS IT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS NE WINDS VEER TO THE E. OUTSIDE OF
THIS LINE...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS
W OF THE LINE SHIFT FROM THE S TO W AND WINDS E OF THE LINE BEGIN
TO SHIFT TO THE S...SO ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO SCT
OUT.

AFTER THAT MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SAT ALTHOUGH WITH
INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME
MVFR/IFR FOG BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE W AT COASTAL TERMINALS
EARLY SAT MORNING. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO THE W SAT MORNING WITH WNW
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT BY MID DAY SAT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAIN ISSUE IS WHETHER AND
FOR HOW LONG MVFR CIGS REMAIN IN PLAY LATER THIS MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS MAY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR-IFR THRESHOLDS LATE TUE OR TUE NIGHT IN RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ALTHOUGH WINDS EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE 25 KT
THRESHOLD FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...A LINGERING SWELL WILL KEEP
SEAS AT LEAST 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT ON THE OCEAN WATERS
ESPECIALLY. THEREFORE WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZ SEAS
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO 12Z SAT AT LEAST...WITH NEAR SHORE WATERS
DROPPING EARLIER.

WINDS TODAY BEING OUT OF THE N-NE...SHIFTING TO THE SW TONIGHT
THEN W DURING THE DAY ON SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.  WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ALONG WITH 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.  THIS MAY RESULT IN MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS/SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.  WE
MAY SEE MARGINAL SCA SEAS DEVELOP LATE TUE/NIGHT AS A RESULT OF
SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY IS THE THREE DAY MARK SINCE LAST APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN THIS FACT...WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE LOW 60S AND LOW DWPTS IN THE 20S...MIN RH VALUES
SHOULD DIP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH W WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 30 MPH. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE
REALIZED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MAIN STEM CT RIVER.
MOST POINTS HAVE REACHED CREST...BUT WILL TAKE MORE TIME TO DROP
BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER HAS DROPPED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT
MONTAGUE...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD ANY LONGER
AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED ALONG CT RIVER AT...

NORTHAMPTON
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
FIRE WEATHER...DOODY
HYDROLOGY...DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 180746
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
346 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL ALONG COASTAL
AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GRAY SKIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS INTO MONDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INVERTED RIDGING FROM HIGH PRES CENTER IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
CONTINUES TO YIELD A DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE
FROM THE DELMARVA TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS COMBINING WITH E TO NE
FLOW...DRAWING AIR ACROSS THE WATERS WHERE SSTS ARE ONLY IN THE
LOW 40S. WITH THIS FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE RIDGE
SHIFTS E LATE TODAY...THE TRAJECTORY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP AREAS
WITHIN BOTH THE I-495 AND I-95 CORRIDORS MUCH COLDER THAN AREAS
FURTHER W. THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S MAINLY
E OF THESE HIGHWAYS WHILE HIGHS FURTHER W WILL BREAK INTO THE LOW-
MID 50S.

REGARDING MARINE SC AND DRIZZLE CHANCES...MODELS STRUGGLING TO
INITIALIZE CURRENT BAND OF SC S OF LI AND INTO NJ AND CONTINUES TO
TRY AND DEVELOP ANOTHER BAND E OF MASS BAY. HOWEVER...AM NOTING
THAT DWPT DEPRESSIONS IN THE LOW LVLS ARE A BIT WIDER THAN
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWING AND WINDS HAVE BEEN MORE N OF E. CMC
REGIONAL BL SETUP DOES STILL SUGGEST SC FORMS E OF MASS BAY AROUND
12Z...SLIDING INLAND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND IT IS THE
ONLY MODEL HANDLING CURRENT BAND S OF LONG ISLAND. GIVEN ALL OF
THESE PROS/CONS REGARDING THE SC DEVELOPMENT...DIMINISHED THE
COVERAGE BUT CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY UNTIL WINDS
SHIFT MORE TO THE W BY LATE IN THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENED
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...SHOULD NOTE THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT
HIGH ON WHETHER IT OCCURS AT ALL...OR ITS EXACT TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE LAYER REMAINS
MAINLY ABOVE H6...WITH DWPT DEPRESSIONS EXCEEDING 10C FROM THE SFC
TO H6. LOW-MID LVL F-GEN IS ALSO VERY WEAK AS IT ARRIVES GIVEN IT
IS TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH RIDGING. THEREFORE...EXPECT LITTLE
FANFARE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE EXCEPT MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS AND W
WINDS INCREASING THROUGH SUNRISE. CONTINUE TO SUGGEST NIL POPS.
BKN-OVC CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...BUT
ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIRMASS SUGGESTS TEMPS STILL DROP TO THE LOW-MID
30S.

SAT...
HIGH PRES REGAINS CONTROL WITH COLD ADVECTION TO START THE DAY.
THIS COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW MIXING UNDER ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TO REACH HIGHER THAN H8...WHERE TEMPS ONLY DIP TO AROUND
-1C. COMBINE THIS WITH W DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO REBOUND INTO THE LOW 60S. LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE GIVEN H92
WINDS REACH AROUND 20-25 KT. THEREFORE...ALSO EXPECT WINDS AROUND
20 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH MONDAY
* SHOWERS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE...

NOTING MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A FLAT...SPLIT FLOW
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL REGIME ACROSS THE LOWER 48 INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING FAST MOVING WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES. BY AROUND SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIGNALING AN H5 CUTOFF LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE SE U.S...WHICH COULD BRING A CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
QUESTIONS AS TO THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND WHEN IT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LOOKS LIKE A MORE AMPLIFIED
LONG WAVE PATTERN DEVELOPS AS AN H5 SHORT WAVE DIGS OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOOKS TO ARRIVE AROUND THE TUE-
WED TIMEFRAME...WHICH SIGNALS A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
THE REGION. ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW ALSO LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A SLOWING
OF THE PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS.

USED A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALL OF
WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...
EXPECT A DRY...WEAK FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST...AS THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EMBEDDED IN THE DRY WESTERLY UPPER
FLOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT...WITH A
LIGHT PRES GRADIENT...NOT EXPECT THEM TO BECOME TOO GUSTY. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT N WINDS...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS SW NH INTO N CENTRAL AND W MA...
POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS THE SPRINGFIELD AREA...RANGING TO THE UPPER 30S
TO AROUND 40 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST. THESE COLDER INTERIOR
READINGS WILL RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRES BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER ALONG E COASTAL AREAS AS THE
ORIENTATION OF THE N-S RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP AN E-NE WIND FLOW IN
PLACE. IT WILL REMAIN RATHER CHILLY ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER- MID 50S...EVEN SOME UPPER 40S ON THE
OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY AS
THE RIDGE NARROWS AS IT SETTLES S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL REMAIN COOLER
ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET TO THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...BUT RANGING TO THE 60S
ELSEWHERE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO FILTER IN LATER SUN NIGHT
INTO MON ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THIS TO BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS BROAD
LOW PRES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WORK OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES. SOME QUESTION AS TO THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...LOOKS TO BE A
BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MAY SEE SCT SHOWERS MOVE INTO
S NH/NW MA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT.

BEST SHOT OF PRECIP WILL BE THE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
TIMEFRAME AS THE FRONT TENDS TO SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...IN RESPONSE TO CUTOFF LOW PRES TRYING TO EXIT OFF THE SE
U.S. COAST. MIGHT SEE BEST QPF VALUES INTO THE TUE NIGHT TIMEFRAME
AS MODELS ARE TRYING TO SIGNAL A WEAK WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT... POSSIBLY BRINGING A DECENT SHOT OF PRECIP INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME DISPARITY AS TO WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR.
KEPT POPS ON HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT FEEL HIGHEST WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MA INTO RI FOR NOW.

EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...EXCEPT 50S
ALONG IMMEDIATE S COAST...BUT ONLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S DURING
WED WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS BACK EDGE
OF PRECIP SHOULD START TO SHIFT INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING WED
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...
SOME TIMING ISSUES ON THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS...BUT LOOKS TO
BE DRYING OUT FROM W-E EARLY WED NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA FOR THURSDAY. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME DUE TO TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGHER CONFIDENCE INTO
SAT...

THERE IS THE CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CIGS WRAPPING INTO
AREAS S AND E OF A WST-PVD-BOS LINE. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY
HOW DEEP IT GETS...BUT ONCE IT OCCURS IT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS NE WINDS VEER TO THE E. OUTSIDE OF
THIS LINE...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS
W OF THE LINE SHIFT FROM THE S TO W AND WINDS E OF THE LINE BEGIN
TO SHIFT TO THE S...SO ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO SCT
OUT.

AFTER THAT MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SAT ALTHOUGH WITH
INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME
MVFR/IFR FOG BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE W AT COASTAL TERMINALS
EARLY SAT MORNING. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO THE W SAT MORNING WITH WNW
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT BY MID DAY SAT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAIN ISSUE IS WHETHER AND
FOR HOW LONG MVFR CIGS REMAIN IN PLAY LATER THIS MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR TO START. MAY
SEE LOCAL MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS MOVING INTO S NH AND CENTRAL-W MA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE AREAS OF LOW END MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH
TUESDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ALTHOUGH WINDS EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE 25 KT
THRESHOLD FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...A LINGERING SWELL WILL KEEP
SEAS AT LEAST 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT ON THE OCEAN WATERS
ESPECIALLY. THEREFORE WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZ SEAS
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO 12Z SAT AT LEAST...WITH NEAR SHORE WATERS
DROPPING EARLIER.

WINDS TODAY BEING OUT OF THE N-NE...SHIFTING TO THE SW TONIGHT
THEN W DURING THE DAY ON SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY...NE WINDS RETURN ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO
THE N. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT EARLY. SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FT ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS...THOUGH MAY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT FROM SE TO S-SW BUT
REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. MAY
SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATER TUESDAY. SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MAIN STEM CT RIVER.
MOST POINTS HAVE REACHED CREST...BUT WILL TAKE MORE TIME TO DROP
BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER HAS DROPPED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT
MONTAGUE...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD ANY LONGER
AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED ALONG CT RIVER AT...

NORTHAMPTON
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 180721
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...PROVIDE A THREAT OF SHOWERS. MILDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE NE TODAY AND WILL SEE AN EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE SFC HIGH DOES NOSE BACK TO THE WEST A
BIT. THIS...COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR WHICH CONTINUE
TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE NE...HAS PREVENTED COASTAL STRATUS FROM
DEVELOPING...AND THIS WILL LKLY PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
TODAY. AS THE HIGH PULLS FURTHER E LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WILL SEE FLOW WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE SE...WHICH COULD
BRING SOME STRATUS IN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
HIGHS LOW TO MID 40S ON THE COAST AND WARNING TO AROUND 50 INLAND.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH THICKENING CIRRUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS N OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT...OF SORTS...ACROSS THE AREA.
SHRASN WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NH LATE THIS EVENING...AND
WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR ME ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 500MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY...AND THERE IS A BRIEF
SHOT OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LVLS
REMAINS QUITE DRY...SO QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NRN
ZONES. CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH WONT RULE OUT A SPKL OR FLURRY AROUND 12Z SAT.
MINS TONIGHT WILL LKLY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR RISING A BIT DURING THE PRE-DAWN.

THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA BY LATE SAT MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SOME
BREEZY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO. THIS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS QUICKLY...BUT WILL SLO KEEP THE
THREAT OF SOME UPSLOPE SHRASN IN THE MTNS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DECENT LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE NW FLOW...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
PRODUCE SOME GRAUPEL IN THE MTNS OR FOOTHILLS. MAXES SAT LOOK TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHERE 50ISH
LOOKS LIKE THE LIMIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START THE PERIOD. AS THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EWD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE
TO ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM WEAK SFC FLOW MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD PREVENT DEEPER RETURN OF MOISTURE NWD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
LOW CLOUDS/FOG UNTIL TUE...WHEN APPROACHING FNT FROM THE W
INCREASES SLY FLOW. ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE...FIRST FOR NH THEN ME AS TUE PROGRESSES
INTO WED.

THEREAFTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN
GREAT LAKES TROF AND WEAK LOW PRES OFFSHORE. TO SOME EXTENT ALL
MODELS CONSOLIDATE THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES AND TRY AND CUT IT
OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING WINDS. THE 18/00Z CMC IS THE WEAKEST
WITH PHASING...WHILE THE 18/00Z ECMWF IS THE NEXT QUICKEST TO LIFT
THE SYSTEM OUT. THE GFS HOWEVER WOULD HAVE THE SYSTEM CUT OFF NEAR
THE GULF OF ME...KEEPING UNSETTLED WX LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN NWP IS NOTORIOUSLY POOR WITH
HANDLING THESE TYPES OF FEATURES I SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM A
MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE VERY LEAST SHRA CHANCES ARE
INCREASING TUE INTO WED...WITH THE QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND HOW
QUICKLY THEY COME TO AN END.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHC
THAT COASTAL TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS IN COASTAL STRATUS AFTER
20Z...WITH A BETTER CHC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS
IMPROVE TO VFR SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH KHIE COULD SEE SOME TEMPO
MVFR IN SHRASN ON SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED. A
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRES SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT ERLY FLOW WILL BRING SWELL UP TO 5 OR 6 FT TODAY
OUTSIDE THE BAYS...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SAT MORNING...AND FLOW SWITCHES TO
NW...WHICH SHOULD KNOCK BACK THE SWELL.


LONG TERM..WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEVELOPING LOW PRES INVOF THE
GULF OF ME MAY AT LEAST BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH SEAS TO THE WATERS
AT THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE RIVER LEVELS SLOWLY RECEDING ATTM. FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE...THOUGH MAY BE POSSIBLE TO DROP THEM FOR
THE ANDROSCOGGIN AND KENNEBEC BY THE END OF THIS SHIFT. CT RIVER
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD POSSIBLY INTO SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
HYDROLOGY...LEGRO









000
FXUS61 KGYX 180721
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...PROVIDE A THREAT OF SHOWERS. MILDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE NE TODAY AND WILL SEE AN EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE SFC HIGH DOES NOSE BACK TO THE WEST A
BIT. THIS...COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR WHICH CONTINUE
TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE NE...HAS PREVENTED COASTAL STRATUS FROM
DEVELOPING...AND THIS WILL LKLY PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
TODAY. AS THE HIGH PULLS FURTHER E LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WILL SEE FLOW WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE SE...WHICH COULD
BRING SOME STRATUS IN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
HIGHS LOW TO MID 40S ON THE COAST AND WARNING TO AROUND 50 INLAND.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH THICKENING CIRRUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS N OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT...OF SORTS...ACROSS THE AREA.
SHRASN WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NH LATE THIS EVENING...AND
WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR ME ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 500MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY...AND THERE IS A BRIEF
SHOT OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LVLS
REMAINS QUITE DRY...SO QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NRN
ZONES. CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH WONT RULE OUT A SPKL OR FLURRY AROUND 12Z SAT.
MINS TONIGHT WILL LKLY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR RISING A BIT DURING THE PRE-DAWN.

THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA BY LATE SAT MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SOME
BREEZY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO. THIS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS QUICKLY...BUT WILL SLO KEEP THE
THREAT OF SOME UPSLOPE SHRASN IN THE MTNS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DECENT LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE NW FLOW...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
PRODUCE SOME GRAUPEL IN THE MTNS OR FOOTHILLS. MAXES SAT LOOK TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHERE 50ISH
LOOKS LIKE THE LIMIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START THE PERIOD. AS THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EWD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE
TO ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM WEAK SFC FLOW MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD PREVENT DEEPER RETURN OF MOISTURE NWD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
LOW CLOUDS/FOG UNTIL TUE...WHEN APPROACHING FNT FROM THE W
INCREASES SLY FLOW. ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE...FIRST FOR NH THEN ME AS TUE PROGRESSES
INTO WED.

THEREAFTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN
GREAT LAKES TROF AND WEAK LOW PRES OFFSHORE. TO SOME EXTENT ALL
MODELS CONSOLIDATE THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES AND TRY AND CUT IT
OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING WINDS. THE 18/00Z CMC IS THE WEAKEST
WITH PHASING...WHILE THE 18/00Z ECMWF IS THE NEXT QUICKEST TO LIFT
THE SYSTEM OUT. THE GFS HOWEVER WOULD HAVE THE SYSTEM CUT OFF NEAR
THE GULF OF ME...KEEPING UNSETTLED WX LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN NWP IS NOTORIOUSLY POOR WITH
HANDLING THESE TYPES OF FEATURES I SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM A
MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE VERY LEAST SHRA CHANCES ARE
INCREASING TUE INTO WED...WITH THE QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND HOW
QUICKLY THEY COME TO AN END.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHC
THAT COASTAL TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS IN COASTAL STRATUS AFTER
20Z...WITH A BETTER CHC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS
IMPROVE TO VFR SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH KHIE COULD SEE SOME TEMPO
MVFR IN SHRASN ON SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED. A
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRES SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT ERLY FLOW WILL BRING SWELL UP TO 5 OR 6 FT TODAY
OUTSIDE THE BAYS...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SAT MORNING...AND FLOW SWITCHES TO
NW...WHICH SHOULD KNOCK BACK THE SWELL.


LONG TERM..WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEVELOPING LOW PRES INVOF THE
GULF OF ME MAY AT LEAST BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH SEAS TO THE WATERS
AT THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE RIVER LEVELS SLOWLY RECEDING ATTM. FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE...THOUGH MAY BE POSSIBLE TO DROP THEM FOR
THE ANDROSCOGGIN AND KENNEBEC BY THE END OF THIS SHIFT. CT RIVER
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD POSSIBLY INTO SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
HYDROLOGY...LEGRO









000
FXUS61 KGYX 180721
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...PROVIDE A THREAT OF SHOWERS. MILDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE NE TODAY AND WILL SEE AN EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE SFC HIGH DOES NOSE BACK TO THE WEST A
BIT. THIS...COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR WHICH CONTINUE
TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE NE...HAS PREVENTED COASTAL STRATUS FROM
DEVELOPING...AND THIS WILL LKLY PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
TODAY. AS THE HIGH PULLS FURTHER E LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WILL SEE FLOW WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE SE...WHICH COULD
BRING SOME STRATUS IN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
HIGHS LOW TO MID 40S ON THE COAST AND WARNING TO AROUND 50 INLAND.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH THICKENING CIRRUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS N OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT...OF SORTS...ACROSS THE AREA.
SHRASN WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NH LATE THIS EVENING...AND
WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR ME ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 500MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY...AND THERE IS A BRIEF
SHOT OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LVLS
REMAINS QUITE DRY...SO QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NRN
ZONES. CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH WONT RULE OUT A SPKL OR FLURRY AROUND 12Z SAT.
MINS TONIGHT WILL LKLY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR RISING A BIT DURING THE PRE-DAWN.

THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA BY LATE SAT MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SOME
BREEZY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO. THIS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS QUICKLY...BUT WILL SLO KEEP THE
THREAT OF SOME UPSLOPE SHRASN IN THE MTNS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DECENT LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE NW FLOW...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
PRODUCE SOME GRAUPEL IN THE MTNS OR FOOTHILLS. MAXES SAT LOOK TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHERE 50ISH
LOOKS LIKE THE LIMIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START THE PERIOD. AS THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EWD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE
TO ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM WEAK SFC FLOW MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD PREVENT DEEPER RETURN OF MOISTURE NWD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
LOW CLOUDS/FOG UNTIL TUE...WHEN APPROACHING FNT FROM THE W
INCREASES SLY FLOW. ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE...FIRST FOR NH THEN ME AS TUE PROGRESSES
INTO WED.

THEREAFTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN
GREAT LAKES TROF AND WEAK LOW PRES OFFSHORE. TO SOME EXTENT ALL
MODELS CONSOLIDATE THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES AND TRY AND CUT IT
OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING WINDS. THE 18/00Z CMC IS THE WEAKEST
WITH PHASING...WHILE THE 18/00Z ECMWF IS THE NEXT QUICKEST TO LIFT
THE SYSTEM OUT. THE GFS HOWEVER WOULD HAVE THE SYSTEM CUT OFF NEAR
THE GULF OF ME...KEEPING UNSETTLED WX LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN NWP IS NOTORIOUSLY POOR WITH
HANDLING THESE TYPES OF FEATURES I SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM A
MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE VERY LEAST SHRA CHANCES ARE
INCREASING TUE INTO WED...WITH THE QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND HOW
QUICKLY THEY COME TO AN END.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHC
THAT COASTAL TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS IN COASTAL STRATUS AFTER
20Z...WITH A BETTER CHC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS
IMPROVE TO VFR SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH KHIE COULD SEE SOME TEMPO
MVFR IN SHRASN ON SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED. A
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRES SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT ERLY FLOW WILL BRING SWELL UP TO 5 OR 6 FT TODAY
OUTSIDE THE BAYS...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SAT MORNING...AND FLOW SWITCHES TO
NW...WHICH SHOULD KNOCK BACK THE SWELL.


LONG TERM..WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEVELOPING LOW PRES INVOF THE
GULF OF ME MAY AT LEAST BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH SEAS TO THE WATERS
AT THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE RIVER LEVELS SLOWLY RECEDING ATTM. FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE...THOUGH MAY BE POSSIBLE TO DROP THEM FOR
THE ANDROSCOGGIN AND KENNEBEC BY THE END OF THIS SHIFT. CT RIVER
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD POSSIBLY INTO SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
HYDROLOGY...LEGRO









000
FXUS61 KGYX 180721
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...PROVIDE A THREAT OF SHOWERS. MILDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE NE TODAY AND WILL SEE AN EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE SFC HIGH DOES NOSE BACK TO THE WEST A
BIT. THIS...COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR WHICH CONTINUE
TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE NE...HAS PREVENTED COASTAL STRATUS FROM
DEVELOPING...AND THIS WILL LKLY PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
TODAY. AS THE HIGH PULLS FURTHER E LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WILL SEE FLOW WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE SE...WHICH COULD
BRING SOME STRATUS IN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
HIGHS LOW TO MID 40S ON THE COAST AND WARNING TO AROUND 50 INLAND.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH THICKENING CIRRUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS N OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT...OF SORTS...ACROSS THE AREA.
SHRASN WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NH LATE THIS EVENING...AND
WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR ME ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 500MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY...AND THERE IS A BRIEF
SHOT OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LVLS
REMAINS QUITE DRY...SO QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NRN
ZONES. CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH WONT RULE OUT A SPKL OR FLURRY AROUND 12Z SAT.
MINS TONIGHT WILL LKLY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR RISING A BIT DURING THE PRE-DAWN.

THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA BY LATE SAT MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SOME
BREEZY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO. THIS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS QUICKLY...BUT WILL SLO KEEP THE
THREAT OF SOME UPSLOPE SHRASN IN THE MTNS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DECENT LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE NW FLOW...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
PRODUCE SOME GRAUPEL IN THE MTNS OR FOOTHILLS. MAXES SAT LOOK TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHERE 50ISH
LOOKS LIKE THE LIMIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START THE PERIOD. AS THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EWD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE
TO ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM WEAK SFC FLOW MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD PREVENT DEEPER RETURN OF MOISTURE NWD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
LOW CLOUDS/FOG UNTIL TUE...WHEN APPROACHING FNT FROM THE W
INCREASES SLY FLOW. ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE...FIRST FOR NH THEN ME AS TUE PROGRESSES
INTO WED.

THEREAFTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN
GREAT LAKES TROF AND WEAK LOW PRES OFFSHORE. TO SOME EXTENT ALL
MODELS CONSOLIDATE THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES AND TRY AND CUT IT
OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING WINDS. THE 18/00Z CMC IS THE WEAKEST
WITH PHASING...WHILE THE 18/00Z ECMWF IS THE NEXT QUICKEST TO LIFT
THE SYSTEM OUT. THE GFS HOWEVER WOULD HAVE THE SYSTEM CUT OFF NEAR
THE GULF OF ME...KEEPING UNSETTLED WX LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN NWP IS NOTORIOUSLY POOR WITH
HANDLING THESE TYPES OF FEATURES I SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM A
MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE VERY LEAST SHRA CHANCES ARE
INCREASING TUE INTO WED...WITH THE QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND HOW
QUICKLY THEY COME TO AN END.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHC
THAT COASTAL TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS IN COASTAL STRATUS AFTER
20Z...WITH A BETTER CHC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS
IMPROVE TO VFR SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH KHIE COULD SEE SOME TEMPO
MVFR IN SHRASN ON SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED. A
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRES SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT ERLY FLOW WILL BRING SWELL UP TO 5 OR 6 FT TODAY
OUTSIDE THE BAYS...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SAT MORNING...AND FLOW SWITCHES TO
NW...WHICH SHOULD KNOCK BACK THE SWELL.


LONG TERM..WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEVELOPING LOW PRES INVOF THE
GULF OF ME MAY AT LEAST BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH SEAS TO THE WATERS
AT THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE RIVER LEVELS SLOWLY RECEDING ATTM. FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE...THOUGH MAY BE POSSIBLE TO DROP THEM FOR
THE ANDROSCOGGIN AND KENNEBEC BY THE END OF THIS SHIFT. CT RIVER
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD POSSIBLY INTO SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
HYDROLOGY...LEGRO









000
FXUS61 KBOX 180542
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
142 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
WILL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAKENING FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
INTO MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
MARINE STRATO-CU LAYER HAS DEVELOPED MAINLY S OF LONG ISLAND AND
INTO CENTRAL NJ THIS EVENING BUT WITH HIGH CLOUDS ONLY JUST
EXITING TO THE E IT HAS STRUGGLED TO MAKE HEADWAY EXCEPT ACK AND
CAPE COD...AND EVEN THERE IT HAS BEEN SCT AT BEST. STILL WITH
PREDOMINANT E-NE FLOW MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE BOARD STILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF BKN SC DEVELOPING ALONG THE E AND SE
COASTS AND SHIFTING INLAND BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER TODAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND...BUT LOWER OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE DUE TO
RECENT UNCERTAINTY AND DIFFICULTY GUIDANCE HAS HAD WITH
INITIALIZING THESE MARINE LAYERS. MAY MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
WITH LATER UPDATES AS MORE REFINED MESOSCALE GUIDANCE CATCHES UP.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A RATHER DEEP LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNING TO COASTAL AREAS LATER TONIGHT...SO WE
CONTINUED THEME OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.
FARTHER INLAND...SOME OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BE PREVALENT
FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CENTERED
AROUND DAYBREAK SAT... BUT LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH TO
PREVENT ANY FOG/DRIZZLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY EARLY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR...BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE LATE. LOWS ARE A BLEND OF
GFS/NAM MOS WHICH YIELDS 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD BE EASILY TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...
ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST PER MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. EXPECT EARLY
MORNING CLOUDS TO SCOUR OUT ACROSS INTERIOR...BUT HOLD FIRM CLOSER
TO COASTLINE WHERE MARINE LAYER SHOULD ALSO BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PATCHY MORNING DRIZZLE.

CONTINUED E/NE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE BUT A
LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. USED BLEND OF BIAS-CORRECTED GFS/NAM MOS
SINCE THEY HAVE BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE TOO COOL WHICH GIVES HIGHS
IN 40S COAST TO 50S INTERIOR. COULD COME CLOSE TO 60 ACROSS CT
VALLEY.

FLOW TURNS MORE W/SW FRI NIGHT AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. MODELS
MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY ON NEAR COAST BUT ERODE IT
OVERNIGHT AS MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO REGION AHEAD OF
WEAKENING COLD FRONT. EXPECT TO HAVE LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG EARLY
ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. THIS MAY THIN OUT AS
THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SHOULD BE A
BIT MILDER WITH LOWS MAINLY IN 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH MONDAY
* SHOWERS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE...

NOTING MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A FLAT...SPLIT FLOW
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL REGIME ACROSS THE LOWER 48 INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING FAST MOVING WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES. BY AROUND SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIGNALING AN H5 CUTOFF LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE SE U.S...WHICH COULD BRING A CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
QUESTIONS AS TO THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND WHEN IT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LOOKS LIKE A MORE AMPLIFIED
LONG WAVE PATTERN DEVELOPS AS AN H5 SHORT WAVE DIGS OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOOKS TO ARRIVE AROUND THE TUE-
WED TIMEFRAME...WHICH SIGNALS A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
THE REGION. ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW ALSO LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A SLOWING
OF THE PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS.

USED A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALL OF
WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...
EXPECT A DRY...WEAK FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST...AS THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EMBEDDED IN THE DRY WESTERLY UPPER
FLOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT...WITH A
LIGHT PRES GRADIENT...NOT EXPECT THEM TO BECOME TOO GUSTY. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT N WINDS...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS SW NH INTO N CENTRAL AND W MA...
POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS THE SPRINGFIELD AREA...RANGING TO THE UPPER 30S
TO AROUND 40 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST. THESE COLDER INTERIOR
READINGS WILL RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRES BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER ALONG E COASTAL AREAS AS THE
ORIENTATION OF THE N-S RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP AN E-NE WIND FLOW IN
PLACE. IT WILL REMAIN RATHER CHILLY ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER- MID 50S...EVEN SOME UPPER 40S ON THE
OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY AS
THE RIDGE NARROWS AS IT SETTLES S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL REMAIN COOLER
ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET TO THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...BUT RANGING TO THE 60S
ELSEWHERE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO FILTER IN LATER SUN NIGHT
INTO MON ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THIS TO BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS BROAD
LOW PRES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WORK OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES. SOME QUESTION AS TO THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...LOOKS TO BE A
BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MAY SEE SCT SHOWERS MOVE INTO
S NH/NW MA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT.

BEST SHOT OF PRECIP WILL BE THE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
TIMEFRAME AS THE FRONT TENDS TO SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...IN RESPONSE TO CUTOFF LOW PRES TRYING TO EXIT OFF THE SE
U.S. COAST. MIGHT SEE BEST QPF VALUES INTO THE TUE NIGHT TIMEFRAME
AS MODELS ARE TRYING TO SIGNAL A WEAK WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT... POSSIBLY BRINGING A DECENT SHOT OF PRECIP INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME DISPARITY AS TO WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR.
KEPT POPS ON HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT FEEL HIGHEST WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MA INTO RI FOR NOW.

EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...EXCEPT 50S
ALONG IMMEDIATE S COAST...BUT ONLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S DURING
WED WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS BACK EDGE
OF PRECIP SHOULD START TO SHIFT INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING WED
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...
SOME TIMING ISSUES ON THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS...BUT LOOKS TO
BE DRYING OUT FROM W-E EARLY WED NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA FOR THURSDAY. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME DUE TO TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGHER CONFIDENCE INTO
SAT...

THERE IS THE CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CIGS WRAPPING INTO
AREAS S AND E OF A WST-PVD-BOS LINE. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY
HOW DEEP IT GETS...BUT ONCE IT OCCURS IT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS NE WINDS VEER TO THE E. OUTSIDE OF
THIS LINE...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS
W OF THE LINE SHIFT FROM THE S TO W AND WINDS E OF THE LINE BEGIN
TO SHIFT TO THE S...SO ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO SCT
OUT.

AFTER THAT MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SAT ALTHOUGH WITH
INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME
MVFR/IFR FOG BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE W AT COASTAL TERMINALS
EARLY SAT MORNING. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO THE W SAT MORNING WITH WNW
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT BY MID DAY SAT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAIN ISSUE IS WHETHER AND
FOR HOW LONG MVFR CIGS REMAIN IN PLAY LATER THIS MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR TO START. MAY
SEE LOCAL MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS MOVING INTO S NH AND CENTRAL-W MA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE AREAS OF LOW END MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH
TUESDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL TAKE THEIR
TIME TO SUBSIDE HOWEVER GIVEN PERSISTENT NE FLOW THROUGH FRI.
EXTENDED SCA PRIMARILY FOR SEAS MAINLY ON OUTER WATERS. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY DRIZZLE ON WATERS LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING.

SHOULD SEE MORE IN WAY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ON S COASTAL WATERS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE W/SW BUT IS LIGHT. SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY...EXPECT W-NW WINDS AT 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS.

SUNDAY...NE WINDS RETURN ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO
THE N. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT EARLY. SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FT ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS...THOUGH MAY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT FROM SE TO S-SW BUT
REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. MAY
SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATER TUESDAY. SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MAIN STEM CT RIVER.
CREST HAS REACHED NORTHAMPTON AND IS FORECAST TO REACH
THOMPSONVILLE THIS AFTERNOON AND HARTFORD TONIGHT. MODERATE
FLOODING IS FORECAST ON LOWER REACHES NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED ALONG CT RIVER AT...

MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM

THE STAGES ON THE PAWCATUCK RIVER WERE NEARING CREST. THE STAGE
AT WESTERLY APPEARS TO BE CRESTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE
CLOSE TO CRESTING AT WOOD RIVER JUNCTION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254-
     255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...DOODY/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 180430
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1230 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES THIS EVENING AND
PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1225 AM...HAVE BACKED OFF THE CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST COMING IN
BEFORE DAWN...AS THERE IS NO SIGN OF THEM OFFSHORE ATTM...AND
COLUMN REMAINS VERY DRY. OTHERWISE JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE
FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

940 PM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST MESONET DATA. SKIES REMAIN MOCLR AND
TEMPS ON TRACK WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC;
AT 18Z...THE 1045 MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH WAS SITUATED VICINITY OF
THE MAINE - NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ON
GOES IMAGERY...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN
WITH THE STRONG SUNSHINE...WE WERE STRUGGLING TO APPROACH 40
DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. WE`LL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THEN LAST NIGHT...WITH NO
LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE OFFSHORE LOW
CLOUD IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...COULD SPREAD
INTO SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH LIMITS HIGHS TO
40S AT THE COAST WITH SOME LOW CLOUD...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORTLAND. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
WARMEST HIGHS IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
50S.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SPOTTY
SLEET...SNOW...AND RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. ANY
LINGERING MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY
SHOULD CHANGE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING AS TEMPS WARM.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY. MODELS
CURRENTLY SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER SHOWERS PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS KEEP PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...VFR...WITH SCT MVFR POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING IN MARINE STRATUS VCNTY OF KPSM.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN MTNS SATURDAY
MORNING IN MIXED PRECIP AND THEN ACROSS ALL THE AREA IN SHOWERS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WE HAVE SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS SOUTH OF PORTLAND THIS EVENING...THEN
SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS WILL REACH 5 FT AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING IN ONSHORE
FLOW WITH SMALL CRAFT SEAS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
CURRENT SCA WAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH THE
NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


LONG TERM...SCA CRITERIA POSSIBLE TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT...OTHERWISE NO FLAGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KGYX 180430
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1230 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES THIS EVENING AND
PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1225 AM...HAVE BACKED OFF THE CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST COMING IN
BEFORE DAWN...AS THERE IS NO SIGN OF THEM OFFSHORE ATTM...AND
COLUMN REMAINS VERY DRY. OTHERWISE JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE
FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

940 PM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST MESONET DATA. SKIES REMAIN MOCLR AND
TEMPS ON TRACK WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC;
AT 18Z...THE 1045 MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH WAS SITUATED VICINITY OF
THE MAINE - NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ON
GOES IMAGERY...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN
WITH THE STRONG SUNSHINE...WE WERE STRUGGLING TO APPROACH 40
DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. WE`LL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THEN LAST NIGHT...WITH NO
LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE OFFSHORE LOW
CLOUD IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...COULD SPREAD
INTO SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH LIMITS HIGHS TO
40S AT THE COAST WITH SOME LOW CLOUD...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORTLAND. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
WARMEST HIGHS IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
50S.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SPOTTY
SLEET...SNOW...AND RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. ANY
LINGERING MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY
SHOULD CHANGE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING AS TEMPS WARM.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY. MODELS
CURRENTLY SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER SHOWERS PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS KEEP PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...VFR...WITH SCT MVFR POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING IN MARINE STRATUS VCNTY OF KPSM.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN MTNS SATURDAY
MORNING IN MIXED PRECIP AND THEN ACROSS ALL THE AREA IN SHOWERS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WE HAVE SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS SOUTH OF PORTLAND THIS EVENING...THEN
SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS WILL REACH 5 FT AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING IN ONSHORE
FLOW WITH SMALL CRAFT SEAS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
CURRENT SCA WAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH THE
NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


LONG TERM...SCA CRITERIA POSSIBLE TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT...OTHERWISE NO FLAGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KBOX 180156
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
956 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
WILL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAKENING FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
INTO MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. MAIN CHANGES
WERE TO DELAY THE TIMING OF ANY MARINE STRATO-CU AND
DRIZZLE...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS DO STILL LOOK RIPE FOR IT MAINLY FOR
SE MA AND SRN RI. UNFORTUNATELY IR SATELLITE NOT MUCH HELP TONIGHT
AS HIGH CLOUDS ARE BLOCKING THE 11-3.9 MICRO CHANNEL. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH OBS CLOSELY TO SEE WHAT DEVELOPS OFFSHORE ESPECIALLY IF
NE FLOW ONCE AGAIN VEERS MORE ELY. OTHERWISE...MOST OTHER
PARAMETERS ON TRACK WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A RATHER DEEP LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNING TO COASTAL AREAS LATER TONIGHT...SO WE
CONTINUED THEME OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.
FARTHER INLAND...SOME OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BE PREVALENT
FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CENTERED
AROUND DAYBREAK SAT... BUT LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH TO
PREVENT ANY FOG/DRIZZLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY EARLY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR...BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE LATE. LOWS ARE A BLEND OF
GFS/NAM MOS WHICH YIELDS 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD BE EASILY TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...
ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST PER MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. EXPECT EARLY
MORNING CLOUDS TO SCOUR OUT ACROSS INTERIOR...BUT HOLD FIRM CLOSER
TO COASTLINE WHERE MARINE LAYER SHOULD ALSO BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PATCHY MORNING DRIZZLE.

CONTINUED E/NE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE BUT A
LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. USED BLEND OF BIAS-CORRECTED GFS/NAM MOS
SINCE THEY HAVE BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE TOO COOL WHICH GIVES HIGHS
IN 40S COAST TO 50S INTERIOR. COULD COME CLOSE TO 60 ACROSS CT
VALLEY.

FLOW TURNS MORE W/SW FRI NIGHT AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. MODELS
MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY ON NEAR COAST BUT ERODE IT
OVERNIGHT AS MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO REGION AHEAD OF
WEAKENING COLD FRONT. EXPECT TO HAVE LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG EARLY
ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. THIS MAY THIN OUT AS
THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SHOULD BE A
BIT MILDER WITH LOWS MAINLY IN 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH MONDAY
* SHOWERS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE...

NOTING MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A FLAT...SPLIT FLOW
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL REGIME ACROSS THE LOWER 48 INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING FAST MOVING WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES. BY AROUND SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIGNALING AN H5 CUTOFF LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE SE U.S...WHICH COULD BRING A CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
QUESTIONS AS TO THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND WHEN IT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LOOKS LIKE A MORE AMPLIFIED
LONG WAVE PATTERN DEVELOPS AS AN H5 SHORT WAVE DIGS OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOOKS TO ARRIVE AROUND THE TUE-
WED TIMEFRAME...WHICH SIGNALS A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
THE REGION. ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW ALSO LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A SLOWING
OF THE PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS.

USED A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALL OF
WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...
EXPECT A DRY...WEAK FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST...AS THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EMBEDDED IN THE DRY WESTERLY UPPER
FLOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT...WITH A
LIGHT PRES GRADIENT...NOT EXPECT THEM TO BECOME TOO GUSTY. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT N WINDS...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS SW NH INTO N CENTRAL AND W MA...
POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS THE SPRINGFIELD AREA...RANGING TO THE UPPER 30S
TO AROUND 40 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST. THESE COLDER INTERIOR
READINGS WILL RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRES BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER ALONG E COASTAL AREAS AS THE
ORIENTATION OF THE N-S RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP AN E-NE WIND FLOW IN
PLACE. IT WILL REMAIN RATHER CHILLY ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER- MID 50S...EVEN SOME UPPER 40S ON THE
OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY AS
THE RIDGE NARROWS AS IT SETTLES S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL REMAIN COOLER
ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET TO THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...BUT RANGING TO THE 60S
ELSEWHERE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO FILTER IN LATER SUN NIGHT
INTO MON ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THIS TO BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS BROAD
LOW PRES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WORK OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES. SOME QUESTION AS TO THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...LOOKS TO BE A
BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MAY SEE SCT SHOWERS MOVE INTO
S NH/NW MA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT.

BEST SHOT OF PRECIP WILL BE THE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
TIMEFRAME AS THE FRONT TENDS TO SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...IN RESPONSE TO CUTOFF LOW PRES TRYING TO EXIT OFF THE SE
U.S. COAST. MIGHT SEE BEST QPF VALUES INTO THE TUE NIGHT TIMEFRAME
AS MODELS ARE TRYING TO SIGNAL A WEAK WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT... POSSIBLY BRINGING A DECENT SHOT OF PRECIP INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME DISPARITY AS TO WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR.
KEPT POPS ON HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT FEEL HIGHEST WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MA INTO RI FOR NOW.

EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...EXCEPT 50S
ALONG IMMEDIATE S COAST...BUT ONLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S DURING
WED WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS BACK EDGE
OF PRECIP SHOULD START TO SHIFT INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING WED
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...
SOME TIMING ISSUES ON THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS...BUT LOOKS TO
BE DRYING OUT FROM W-E EARLY WED NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA FOR THURSDAY. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME DUE TO TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRI NIGHT.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY VFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
ISOLD MVFR CIGS /AROUND 3KFT/ ACROSS E AND SE MA AT 23Z. THESE
WILL BREAK UP BRIEFLY BY 02Z. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO RETURN AROUND
OR AFTER 04Z.

OVERNIGHT...CONTINUED NE FLOW SHOULD BRING LOWER MVFR CIGS INTO
MUCH OF REGION TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. AREAS OF IFR CIGS
ACROSS CAPE COD AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND
OVERNIGHT. PATCHY DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY NEAR COAST.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...CIGS SLOWLY LIFT FRI BUT COASTAL AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN MVFR FOR MUCH OF DAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE FRI NIGHT AS W/SW
FLOW SHOULD ERODE LOWER CLOUD COVER...BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS COULD ONCE
AGAIN IMPACT COASTAL SITES.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS /035/ SOUTH
OF AIRPORT THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR TO START. MAY
SEE LOCAL MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS MOVING INTO S NH AND CENTRAL-W MA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE AREAS OF LOW END MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH
TUESDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL TAKE THEIR
TIME TO SUBSIDE HOWEVER GIVEN PERSISTENT NE FLOW THROUGH FRI.
EXTENDED SCA PRIMARILY FOR SEAS MAINLY ON OUTER WATERS. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY DRIZZLE ON WATERS LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING.

SHOULD SEE MORE IN WAY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ON S COASTAL WATERS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE W/SW BUT IS LIGHT. SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY...EXPECT W-NW WINDS AT 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS.

SUNDAY...NE WINDS RETURN ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO
THE N. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT EARLY. SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FT ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS...THOUGH MAY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT FROM SE TO S-SW BUT
REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. MAY
SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATER TUESDAY. SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MAIN STEM CT RIVER.
CREST HAS REACHED NORTHAMPTON AND IS FORECAST TO REACH
THOMPSONVILLE THIS AFTERNOON AND HARTFORD TONIGHT. MODERATE
FLOODING IS FORECAST ON LOWER REACHES NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED ALONG CT RIVER AT...

MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM

THE STAGES ON THE PAWCATUCK RIVER WERE NEARING CREST. THE STAGE
AT WESTERLY APPEARS TO BE CRESTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE
CLOSE TO CRESTING AT WOOD RIVER JUNCTION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254-
     255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...DOODY/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 180139
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
939 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES THIS EVENING AND
PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
940 PM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST MESONET DATA. SKIES REMAIN MOCLR AND
TEMPS ON TRACK WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC;
AT 18Z...THE 1045 MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH WAS SITUATED VICINITY OF
THE MAINE - NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ON
GOES IMAGERY...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN
WITH THE STRONG SUNSHINE...WE WERE STRUGGLING TO APPROACH 40
DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. WE`LL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THEN LAST NIGHT...WITH NO
LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE OFFSHORE LOW
CLOUD IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...COULD SPREAD
INTO SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH LIMITS HIGHS TO
40S AT THE COAST WITH SOME LOW CLOUD...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORTLAND. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
WARMEST HIGHS IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
50S.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SPOTTY
SLEET...SNOW...AND RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. ANY
LINGERING MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY
SHOULD CHANGE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING AS TEMPS WARM.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY. MODELS
CURRENTLY SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER SHOWERS PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS KEEP PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...VFR...WITH SCT MVFR POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING IN MARINE STRATUS VCNTY OF KPSM.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN MTNS SATURDAY
MORNING IN MIXED PRECIP AND THEN ACROSS ALL THE AREA IN SHOWERS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WE HAVE SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS SOUTH OF PORTLAND THIS EVENING...THEN
SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS WILL REACH 5 FT AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING IN ONSHORE
FLOW WITH SMALL CRAFT SEAS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
CURRENT SCA WAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH THE
NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


LONG TERM...SCA CRITERIA POSSIBLE TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT...OTHERWISE NO FLAGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 180139
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
939 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES THIS EVENING AND
PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
940 PM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST MESONET DATA. SKIES REMAIN MOCLR AND
TEMPS ON TRACK WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC;
AT 18Z...THE 1045 MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH WAS SITUATED VICINITY OF
THE MAINE - NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ON
GOES IMAGERY...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN
WITH THE STRONG SUNSHINE...WE WERE STRUGGLING TO APPROACH 40
DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. WE`LL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THEN LAST NIGHT...WITH NO
LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE OFFSHORE LOW
CLOUD IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...COULD SPREAD
INTO SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH LIMITS HIGHS TO
40S AT THE COAST WITH SOME LOW CLOUD...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORTLAND. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
WARMEST HIGHS IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
50S.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SPOTTY
SLEET...SNOW...AND RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. ANY
LINGERING MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY
SHOULD CHANGE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING AS TEMPS WARM.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY. MODELS
CURRENTLY SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER SHOWERS PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS KEEP PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...VFR...WITH SCT MVFR POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING IN MARINE STRATUS VCNTY OF KPSM.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN MTNS SATURDAY
MORNING IN MIXED PRECIP AND THEN ACROSS ALL THE AREA IN SHOWERS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WE HAVE SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS SOUTH OF PORTLAND THIS EVENING...THEN
SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS WILL REACH 5 FT AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING IN ONSHORE
FLOW WITH SMALL CRAFT SEAS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
CURRENT SCA WAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH THE
NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


LONG TERM...SCA CRITERIA POSSIBLE TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT...OTHERWISE NO FLAGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KGYX 172348
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
748 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES THIS EVENING AND
PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
745 PM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST MESONET DATA. SKIES REMAIN MOCLR AND
TEMPS ON TRACK WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC;
AT 18Z...THE 1045 MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH WAS SITUATED VICINITY OF
THE MAINE - NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ON
GOES IMAGERY...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN
WITH THE STRONG SUNSHINE...WE WERE STRUGGLING TO APPROACH 40
DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. WE`LL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THEN LAST NIGHT...WITH NO
LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE OFFSHORE LOW
CLOUD IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...COULD SPREAD
INTO SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH LIMITS HIGHS TO
40S AT THE COAST WITH SOME LOW CLOUD...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORTLAND. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
WARMEST HIGHS IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
50S.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SPOTTY
SLEET...SNOW...AND RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. ANY
LINGERING MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY
SHOULD CHANGE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING AS TEMPS WARM.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY. MODELS
CURRENTLY SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER SHOWERS PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS KEEP PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...VFR...WITH SCT MVFR POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING IN MARINE STRATUS VCNTY OF KPSM.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN MTNS SATURDAY
MORNING IN MIXED PRECIP AND THEN ACROSS ALL THE AREA IN SHOWERS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WE HAVE SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS SOUTH OF PORTLAND THIS EVENING...THEN
SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS WILL REACH 5 FT AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING IN ONSHORE
FLOW WITH SMALL CRAFT SEAS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
CURRENT SCA WAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH THE
NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


LONG TERM...SCA CRITERIA POSSIBLE TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT...OTHERWISE NO FLAGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KGYX 172348
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
748 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES THIS EVENING AND
PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
745 PM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST MESONET DATA. SKIES REMAIN MOCLR AND
TEMPS ON TRACK WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC;
AT 18Z...THE 1045 MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH WAS SITUATED VICINITY OF
THE MAINE - NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ON
GOES IMAGERY...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN
WITH THE STRONG SUNSHINE...WE WERE STRUGGLING TO APPROACH 40
DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. WE`LL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THEN LAST NIGHT...WITH NO
LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE OFFSHORE LOW
CLOUD IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...COULD SPREAD
INTO SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH LIMITS HIGHS TO
40S AT THE COAST WITH SOME LOW CLOUD...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORTLAND. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
WARMEST HIGHS IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
50S.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SPOTTY
SLEET...SNOW...AND RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. ANY
LINGERING MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY
SHOULD CHANGE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING AS TEMPS WARM.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY. MODELS
CURRENTLY SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER SHOWERS PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS KEEP PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...VFR...WITH SCT MVFR POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING IN MARINE STRATUS VCNTY OF KPSM.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN MTNS SATURDAY
MORNING IN MIXED PRECIP AND THEN ACROSS ALL THE AREA IN SHOWERS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WE HAVE SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS SOUTH OF PORTLAND THIS EVENING...THEN
SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS WILL REACH 5 FT AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING IN ONSHORE
FLOW WITH SMALL CRAFT SEAS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
CURRENT SCA WAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH THE
NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


LONG TERM...SCA CRITERIA POSSIBLE TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT...OTHERWISE NO FLAGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KBOX 172338
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
738 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
WILL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAKENING FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
INTO MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
725 PM UPDATE...
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TENDING TO BREAK UP WITH SUNSET...THOUGH SOME
STILL LINGER FROM S OF BOSTON DOWN TO SE MA AT 23Z.
OTHERWISE...NOTING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE SW AS SEEN ON LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP.

CAN SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVING UNDERNEATH THE THIN CIRRUS E OF THE
OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET HEADING BACK TO THE W...SO FEEL THAT
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK TO BRING BACK LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
SOME POCKET OF DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING ACROSS E
COASTAL AREAS INTO RI/N CT.

UPDATED NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT AND
INCORPORATED INTO OVERNIGHT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A RATHER DEEP LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNING TO COASTAL AREAS LATER TONIGHT...SO WE
CONTINUED THEME OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.
FARTHER INLAND...SOME OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BE PREVALENT
FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CENTERED
AROUND DAYBREAK SAT... BUT LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH TO
PREVENT ANY FOG/DRIZZLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY EARLY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR...BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE LATE. LOWS ARE A BLEND OF
GFS/NAM MOS WHICH YIELDS 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD BE EASILY TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...
ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST PER MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. EXPECT EARLY
MORNING CLOUDS TO SCOUR OUT ACROSS INTERIOR...BUT HOLD FIRM CLOSER
TO COASTLINE WHERE MARINE LAYER SHOULD ALSO BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PATCHY MORNING DRIZZLE.

CONTINUED E/NE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE BUT A
LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. USED BLEND OF BIAS-CORRECTED GFS/NAM MOS
SINCE THEY HAVE BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE TOO COOL WHICH GIVES HIGHS
IN 40S COAST TO 50S INTERIOR. COULD COME CLOSE TO 60 ACROSS CT
VALLEY.

FLOW TURNS MORE W/SW FRI NIGHT AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. MODELS
MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY ON NEAR COAST BUT ERODE IT
OVERNIGHT AS MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO REGION AHEAD OF
WEAKENING COLD FRONT. EXPECT TO HAVE LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG EARLY
ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. THIS MAY THIN OUT AS
THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SHOULD BE A
BIT MILDER WITH LOWS MAINLY IN 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH MONDAY
* SHOWERS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE...

NOTING MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A FLAT...SPLIT FLOW
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL REGIME ACROSS THE LOWER 48 INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING FAST MOVING WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES. BY AROUND SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIGNALING AN H5 CUTOFF LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE SE U.S...WHICH COULD BRING A CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
QUESTIONS AS TO THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND WHEN IT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LOOKS LIKE A MORE AMPLIFIED
LONG WAVE PATTERN DEVELOPS AS AN H5 SHORT WAVE DIGS OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOOKS TO ARRIVE AROUND THE TUE-
WED TIMEFRAME...WHICH SIGNALS A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
THE REGION. ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW ALSO LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A SLOWING
OF THE PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS.

USED A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALL OF
WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...
EXPECT A DRY...WEAK FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST...AS THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EMBEDDED IN THE DRY WESTERLY UPPER
FLOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT...WITH A
LIGHT PRES GRADIENT...NOT EXPECT THEM TO BECOME TOO GUSTY. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT N WINDS...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS SW NH INTO N CENTRAL AND W MA...
POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS THE SPRINGFIELD AREA...RANGING TO THE UPPER 30S
TO AROUND 40 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST. THESE COLDER INTERIOR
READINGS WILL RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRES BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER ALONG E COASTAL AREAS AS THE
ORIENTATION OF THE N-S RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP AN E-NE WIND FLOW IN
PLACE. IT WILL REMAIN RATHER CHILLY ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER- MID 50S...EVEN SOME UPPER 40S ON THE
OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY AS
THE RIDGE NARROWS AS IT SETTLES S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL REMAIN COOLER
ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET TO THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...BUT RANGING TO THE 60S
ELSEWHERE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO FILTER IN LATER SUN NIGHT
INTO MON ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THIS TO BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS BROAD
LOW PRES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WORK OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES. SOME QUESTION AS TO THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...LOOKS TO BE A
BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MAY SEE SCT SHOWERS MOVE INTO
S NH/NW MA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT.

BEST SHOT OF PRECIP WILL BE THE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
TIMEFRAME AS THE FRONT TENDS TO SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...IN RESPONSE TO CUTOFF LOW PRES TRYING TO EXIT OFF THE SE
U.S. COAST. MIGHT SEE BEST QPF VALUES INTO THE TUE NIGHT TIMEFRAME
AS MODELS ARE TRYING TO SIGNAL A WEAK WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT... POSSIBLY BRINGING A DECENT SHOT OF PRECIP INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME DISPARITY AS TO WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR.
KEPT POPS ON HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT FEEL HIGHEST WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MA INTO RI FOR NOW.

EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...EXCEPT 50S
ALONG IMMEDIATE S COAST...BUT ONLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S DURING
WED WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS BACK EDGE
OF PRECIP SHOULD START TO SHIFT INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING WED
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...
SOME TIMING ISSUES ON THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS...BUT LOOKS TO
BE DRYING OUT FROM W-E EARLY WED NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA FOR THURSDAY. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME DUE TO TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRI NIGHT.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY VFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
ISOLD MVFR CIGS /AROUND 3KFT/ ACROSS E AND SE MA AT 23Z. THESE
WILL BREAK UP BRIEFLY BY 02Z. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO RETURN AROUND
OR AFTER 04Z.

OVERNIGHT...CONTINUED NE FLOW SHOULD BRING LOWER MVFR CIGS INTO
MUCH OF REGION TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. AREAS OF IFR CIGS
ACROSS CAPE COD AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND
OVERNIGHT. PATCHY DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY NEAR COAST.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...CIGS SLOWLY LIFT FRI BUT COASTAL AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN MVFR FOR MUCH OF DAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE FRI NIGHT AS W/SW
FLOW SHOULD ERODE LOWER CLOUD COVER...BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS COULD ONCE
AGAIN IMPACT COASTAL SITES.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS /035/ SOUTH
OF AIRPORT THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR TO START. MAY
SEE LOCAL MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS MOVING INTO S NH AND CENTRAL-W MA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE AREAS OF LOW END MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH
TUESDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL TAKE THEIR
TIME TO SUBSIDE HOWEVER GIVEN PERSISTENT NE FLOW THROUGH FRI.
EXTENDED SCA PRIMARILY FOR SEAS MAINLY ON OUTER WATERS. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY DRIZZLE ON WATERS LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING.

SHOULD SEE MORE IN WAY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ON S COASTAL WATERS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE W/SW BUT IS LIGHT. SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY...EXPECT W-NW WINDS AT 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS.

SUNDAY...NE WINDS RETURN ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO
THE N. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT EARLY. SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FT ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS...THOUGH MAY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT FROM SE TO S-SW BUT
REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. MAY
SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATER TUESDAY. SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MAIN STEM CT RIVER.
CREST HAS REACHED NORTHAMPTON AND IS FORECAST TO REACH
THOMPSONVILLE THIS AFTERNOON AND HARTFORD TONIGHT. MODERATE
FLOODING IS FORECAST ON LOWER REACHES NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED ALONG CT RIVER AT...

MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM

THE STAGES ON THE PAWCATUCK RIVER WERE NEARING CREST. THE STAGE
AT WESTERLY APPEARS TO BE CRESTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE
CLOSE TO CRESTING AT WOOD RIVER JUNCTION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254-
     255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...EVT/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 172059
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
459 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
WILL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAKENING FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
INTO MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
220 PM UPDATE...

BACK EDGE TO LOWER CLOUD DECK AFFECTING SE MA IS MAKING WESTWARD
PROGRESS AS SEEN ON SATELLITE...SO IT DOES LOOK LIKE THESE AREAS
WILL SEE CLEARING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW A RATHER DEEP LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING
TO COASTAL AREAS LATER TONIGHT...SO WE CONTINUED THEME OF LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. FARTHER INLAND...SOME OF
THIS MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BE PREVALENT FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CENTERED AROUND DAYBREAK SAT...
BUT LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FOG/DRIZZLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY EARLY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR...BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE LATE. LOWS ARE A BLEND OF
GFS/NAM MOS WHICH YIELDS 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD BE EASILY TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...
ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST PER MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. EXPECT EARLY
MORNING CLOUDS TO SCOUR OUT ACROSS INTERIOR...BUT HOLD FIRM CLOSER
TO COASTLINE WHERE MARINE LAYER SHOULD ALSO BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PATCHY MORNING DRIZZLE.

CONTINUED E/NE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE BUT A
LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. USED BLEND OF BIAS-CORRECTED GFS/NAM MOS
SINCE THEY HAVE BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE TOO COOL WHICH GIVES HIGHS
IN 40S COAST TO 50S INTERIOR. COULD COME CLOSE TO 60 ACROSS CT
VALLEY.

FLOW TURNS MORE W/SW FRI NIGHT AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. MODELS
MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY ON NEAR COAST BUT ERODE IT
OVERNIGHT AS MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO REGION AHEAD OF
WEAKENING COLD FRONT. EXPECT TO HAVE LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG EARLY
ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. THIS MAY THIN OUT AS
THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SHOULD BE A
BIT MILDER WITH LOWS MAINLY IN 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH MONDAY
* SHOWERS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE...

NOTING MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A FLAT...SPLIT FLOW
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL REGIME ACROSS THE LOWER 48 INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING FAST MOVING WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES. BY AROUND SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIGNALING AN H5 CUTOFF LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE SE U.S...WHICH COULD BRING A CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
QUESTIONS AS TO THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND WHEN IT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LOOKS LIKE A MORE AMPLIFIED
LONG WAVE PATTERN DEVELOPS AS AN H5 SHORT WAVE DIGS OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOOKS TO ARRIVE AROUND THE TUE-
WED TIMEFRAME...WHICH SIGNALS A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
THE REGION. ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW ALSO LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A SLOWING
OF THE PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS.

USED A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALL OF
WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...
EXPECT A DRY...WEAK FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST...AS THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EMBEDDED IN THE DRY WESTERLY UPPER
FLOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT...WITH A
LIGHT PRES GRADIENT...NOT EXPECT THEM TO BECOME TOO GUSTY. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT N WINDS...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS SW NH INTO N CENTRAL AND W MA...
POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS THE SPRINGFIELD AREA...RANGING TO THE UPPER 30S
TO AROUND 40 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST. THESE COLDER INTERIOR
READINGS WILL RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRES BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER ALONG E COASTAL AREAS AS THE
ORIENTATION OF THE N-S RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP AN E-NE WIND FLOW IN
PLACE. IT WILL REMAIN RATHER CHILLY ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER- MID 50S...EVEN SOME UPPER 40S ON THE
OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY AS
THE RIDGE NARROWS AS IT SETTLES S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL REMAIN COOLER
ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET TO THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...BUT RANGING TO THE 60S
ELSEWHERE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO FILTER IN LATER SUN NIGHT
INTO MON ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THIS TO BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS BROAD
LOW PRES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WORK OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES. SOME QUESTION AS TO THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...LOOKS TO BE A
BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MAY SEE SCT SHOWERS MOVE INTO
S NH/NW MA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT.

BEST SHOT OF PRECIP WILL BE THE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
TIMEFRAME AS THE FRONT TENDS TO SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...IN RESPONSE TO CUTOFF LOW PRES TRYING TO EXIT OFF THE SE
U.S. COAST. MIGHT SEE BEST QPF VALUES INTO THE TUE NIGHT TIMEFRAME
AS MODELS ARE TRYING TO SIGNAL A WEAK WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT... POSSIBLY BRINGING A DECENT SHOT OF PRECIP INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME DISPARITY AS TO WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR.
KEPT POPS ON HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT FEEL HIGHEST WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MA INTO RI FOR NOW.

EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...EXCEPT 50S
ALONG IMMEDIATE S COAST...BUT ONLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S DURING
WED WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS BACK EDGE
OF PRECIP SHOULD START TO SHIFT INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING WED
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...
SOME TIMING ISSUES ON THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS...BUT LOOKS TO
BE DRYING OUT FROM W-E EARLY WED NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA FOR THURSDAY. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME DUE TO TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

1730Z UPDATE...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRI NIGHT.

MVFR CIGS PRIMARILY ACROSS SE MA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR
CIGS /035/ POSSIBLE INTO PVD/BOS FOR A TIME. CONTINUED NE FLOW
SHOULD BRING LOWER MVFR CIGS INTO MUCH OF REGION TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. IFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS AS WELL AS HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND OVERNIGHT. PATCHY DRIZZLE
ALSO POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY NEAR COAST.

CIGS SLOWLY LIFT FRI BUT COASTAL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR FOR MUCH
OF DAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE FRI NIGHT AS W/SW FLOW SHOULD ERODE LOWER
CLOUD COVER...BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS COULD ONCE AGAIN IMPACT COASTAL
SITES.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS /035/ SOUTH
OF AIRPORT THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR TO START. MAY
SEE LOCAL MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS MOVING INTO S NH AND CENTRAL-W MA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE AREAS OF LOW END MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH
TUESDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL TAKE THEIR
TIME TO SUBSIDE HOWEVER GIVEN PERSISTENT NE FLOW THROUGH FRI.
EXTENDED SCA PRIMARILY FOR SEAS MAINLY ON OUTER WATERS. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY DRIZZLE ON WATERS LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING.

SHOULD SEE MORE IN WAY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ON S COASTAL WATERS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE W/SW BUT IS LIGHT. SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY...EXPECT W-NW WINDS AT 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS.

SUNDAY...NE WINDS RETURN ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO
THE N. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT EARLY. SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FT ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS...THOUGH MAY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT FROM SE TO S-SW BUT
REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. MAY
SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATER TUESDAY. SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MAIN STEM CT RIVER.
CREST HAS REACHED NORTHAMPTON AND IS FORECAST TO REACH
THOMPSONVILLE THIS AFTERNOON AND HARTFORD TONIGHT. MODERATE
FLOODING IS FORECAST ON LOWER REACHES NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED ALONG CT RIVER AT...

MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM

THE STAGES ON THE PAWCATUCK RIVER WERE NEARING CREST. THE STAGE
AT WESTERLY APPEARS TO BE CRESTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE
CLOSE TO CRESTING AT WOOD RIVER JUNCTION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254-
     255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD
HYDROLOGY...JWD




000
FXUS61 KGYX 171856
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
256 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES THIS EVENING AND
PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY.




&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...THE 1045 MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH WAS SITUATED VICINITY OF
THE MAINE - NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ON
GOES IMAGERY...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN
WITH THE STRONG SUNSHINE...WE WERE STRUGGLING TO APPROACH 40
DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. WE`LL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THEN LAST NIGHT...WITH NO
LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE OFFSHORE LOW
CLOUD IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...COULD SPREAD
INTO SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH LIMITS HIGHS TO
40S AT THE COAST WITH SOME LOW CLOUD...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORTLAND. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
WARMEST HIGHS IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
50S.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SPOTTY
SLEET...SNOW...AND RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. ANY
LINGERING MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY
SHOULD CHANGE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING AS TEMPS WARM.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY. MODELS
CURRENTLY SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER SHOWERS PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS KEEP PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...VFR...WITH SCT MVFR POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING IN MARINE STRATUS VCNTY OF KPSM.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN MTNS SATURDAY
MORNING IN MIXED PRECIP AND THEN ACROSS ALL THE AREA IN SHOWERS
TUESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WE HAVE SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS SOUTH OF PORTLAND THIS EVENING...THEN
SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS WILL REACH 5 FT AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING IN ONSHORE
FLOW WITH SMALL CRAFT SEAS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
CURRENT SCA WAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH THE
NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


LONG TERM...SCA CRITERIA POSSIBLE TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT...OTHERWISE NO FLAGS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN GENERAL...RIVERS
ARE RECEDING BECAUSE OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND REDUCED SNOWMELT.
SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE
DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/JENSENIUS








000
FXUS61 KGYX 171856
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
256 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES THIS EVENING AND
PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY.




&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...THE 1045 MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH WAS SITUATED VICINITY OF
THE MAINE - NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ON
GOES IMAGERY...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN
WITH THE STRONG SUNSHINE...WE WERE STRUGGLING TO APPROACH 40
DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. WE`LL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THEN LAST NIGHT...WITH NO
LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE OFFSHORE LOW
CLOUD IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...COULD SPREAD
INTO SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH LIMITS HIGHS TO
40S AT THE COAST WITH SOME LOW CLOUD...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORTLAND. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
WARMEST HIGHS IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
50S.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SPOTTY
SLEET...SNOW...AND RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. ANY
LINGERING MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY
SHOULD CHANGE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING AS TEMPS WARM.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY. MODELS
CURRENTLY SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER SHOWERS PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS KEEP PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...VFR...WITH SCT MVFR POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING IN MARINE STRATUS VCNTY OF KPSM.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN MTNS SATURDAY
MORNING IN MIXED PRECIP AND THEN ACROSS ALL THE AREA IN SHOWERS
TUESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WE HAVE SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS SOUTH OF PORTLAND THIS EVENING...THEN
SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS WILL REACH 5 FT AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING IN ONSHORE
FLOW WITH SMALL CRAFT SEAS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
CURRENT SCA WAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH THE
NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


LONG TERM...SCA CRITERIA POSSIBLE TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT...OTHERWISE NO FLAGS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN GENERAL...RIVERS
ARE RECEDING BECAUSE OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND REDUCED SNOWMELT.
SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE
DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/JENSENIUS









000
FXUS61 KBOX 171822
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
222 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
WILL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND. SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING
SHOWERS FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
220 PM UPDATE...

BACK EDGE TO LOWER CLOUD DECK AFFECTING SE MA IS MAKING WESTWARD
PROGRESS AS SEEN ON SATELLITE...SO IT DOES LOOK LIKE THESE AREAS
WILL SEE CLEARING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW A RATHER DEEP LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING
TO COASTAL AREAS LATER TONIGHT...SO WE CONTINUED THEME OF LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. FARTHER INLAND...SOME OF
THIS MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BE PREVALENT FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CENTERED AROUND DAYBREAK SAT...
BUT LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FOG/DRIZZLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY EARLY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR...BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE LATE. LOWS ARE A BLEND OF
GFS/NAM MOS WHICH YIELDS 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD BE EASILY TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...
ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST PER MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. EXPECT EARLY
MORNING CLOUDS TO SCOUR OUT ACROSS INTERIOR...BUT HOLD FIRM CLOSER
TO COASTLINE WHERE MARINE LAYER SHOULD ALSO BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PATCHY MORNING DRIZZLE.

CONTINUED E/NE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE BUT A
LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. USED BLEND OF BIAS-CORRECTED GFS/NAM MOS
SINCE THEY HAVE BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE TOO COOL WHICH GIVES HIGHS
IN 40S COAST TO 50S INTERIOR. COULD COME CLOSE TO 60 ACROSS CT
VALLEY.

FLOW TURNS MORE W/SW FRI NIGHT AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. MODELS
MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY ON NEAR COAST BUT ERODE IT
OVERNIGHT AS MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO REGION AHEAD OF
WEAKENING COLD FRONT. EXPECT TO HAVE LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG EARLY
ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. THIS MAY THIN OUT AS
THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SHOULD BE A
BIT MILDER WITH LOWS MAINLY IN 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH MONDAY
* SHOWERS A GOOD BET FOR TUE INTO WED

IN GENERAL THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. FROM LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN USA.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM AND A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES SNEAKING HARMLESSLY OUT TO
SEA WELL TO OUR SOUTH. ON TUE...A NEW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES DEEPENS...FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OFF OF CAPE COD BY WED.
DETAILS...

SATURDAY...

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SAT. WHILE A SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
TO PUT AN END TO THE ONSHORE FLOW...WITH LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND SUNSHINE RETURNING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY
WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLER NEAR THE
COAST THOUGH. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH ON
MONDAY WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES ANOTHER BOOST. 925 MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH +8C TO +10C BY MONDAY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED
FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE...REACHING
THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S EXCEPT 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THERE NO LONGER IS ANY RISK FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THIS IS AN UNSETTLED PERIOD. MODELS AGREE THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD
AND AMPLIFIES TUE...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
SOMEWHERE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS
OCCURS EAST OF CAPE COD/NANTUCKET ON WED ALTHOUGH THE GFS
OPERATIONAL RUN IS FARTHER NORTH OFF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE. MILD WITH
SHOWERS A GOOD BET FROM LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE NIGHT.
HAVE EXTENDED THIS CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH WED BASED ON THE 00Z
ECMWF MODEL RUN. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS COULD TURN INTO A
SOAKING RAIN... ESPECIALLY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...BUT THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME OUR PROBABILITIES ONLY REFLECT 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES OF
RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TUE AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60 WED. HAVE GONE WITH THIS...HOWEVER THE ECMWF 850 MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY +4C...WHICH IS COLDER THAN THE GFS +8C...SO IT IS
POSSIBLE THE WED MAX TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

1730Z UPDATE...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRI NIGHT.

MVFR CIGS PRIMARILY ACROSS SE MA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR
CIGS /035/ POSSIBLE INTO PVD/BOS FOR A TIME. CONTINUED NE FLOW
SHOULD BRING LOWER MVFR CIGS INTO MUCH OF REGION TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. IFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS AS WELL AS HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND OVERNIGHT. PATCHY DRIZZLE
ALSO POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY NEAR COAST.

CIGS SLOWLY LIFT FRI BUT COASTAL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR FOR MUCH
OF DAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE FRI NIGHT AS W/SW FLOW SHOULD ERODE LOWER
CLOUD COVER...BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS COULD ONCE AGAIN IMPACT COASTAL
SITES.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS /035/ SOUTH
OF AIRPORT THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL TAKE THEIR
TIME TO SUBSIDE HOWEVER GIVEN PERSISTENT NE FLOW THROUGH FRI.
EXTENDED SCA PRIMARILY FOR SEAS MAINLY ON OUTER WATERS. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY DRIZZLE ON WATERS LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING.

SHOULD SEE MORE IN WAY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ON S COASTAL WATERS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE W/SW BUT IS LIGHT. SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF NW FLOW BEHIND A WEAK LOW PRES
TROUGH. SEAS MAY SUBSIDE BRIEFLY TO BELOW 5 FT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN OF NORTHEAST WIND FLOW.
SEAS ONCE AGAIN BUILDING TO JUST ABOVE THE 5 FT THRESHOLD.

MONDAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND BECOME GUSTY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MA. THEY
COULD REACH 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MAIN STEM CT RIVER.
CREST HAS REACHED NORTHAMPTON AND IS FORECAST TO REACH
THOMPSONVILLE THIS AFTERNOON AND HARTFORD TONIGHT. MODERATE
FLOODING IS FORECAST ON LOWER REACHES NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED ALONG CT RIVER AT...

MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM

IN ADDITION...PAWCATUCK RIVER IN RI WAS NEARING CREST AT WESTERLY
AND WOOD RIVER JUNCTION. IT IS FORECAST TO CREST JUST BELOW FLOOD
STAGE LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254-
     255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 171729
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
129 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. DRY AND SLOWLY WARMING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SHOWERS FROM
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...

LOW CLOUD DECK MAINLY AFFECTING SE MA THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD
PUSH INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN RI BY LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE ACROSS INTERIOR. NE WINDS STILL GUSTY ALONG COAST BUT
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.

FORECAST HIGHS IN 40S TO NEAR 50 ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO FRI...
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND`S WEATHER WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WHILE A STALLED FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL STAY SUPPRESSED. THIS SET-UP WILL
CONTINUE THE EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING THE MARITIME AIR ONSHORE.
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE BEING
TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. FRIDAY ESPECIALLY LOOKS TO BE A COLD
AND DREARY DAY FROM THE NORTH SHORE DOWN TO THE CAPE...INCLUDING
BOSTON...DUE TO THE INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND DRIZZLE.

OTHERWISE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TEMPS WILL RADIATE OUT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL DIP
AGAIN BELOW THE FREEZING MARK BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES
AS THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS ON THE 20TH OF APRIL. ON FRIDAY THE
INTERIOR WILL WARM UP WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH THE CT
VALLEY BEING THE WARM SPOT WHICH COULD MAKE A RUN TO 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CLOUDS/POSSIBLE DRIZZLE SOUTHEAST AREAS FRI NIGHT
* DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH MONDAY
* SHOWERS A GOOD BET FOR TUE INTO WED

IN GENERAL THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. FROM LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN USA.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM AND A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES SNEAKING HARMLESSLY OUT TO
SEA WELL TO OUR SOUTH. ON TUE...A NEW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES DEEPENS...FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OFF OF CAPE COD BY WED.
DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING VERY FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS. HOWEVER THE ONSHORE FLOW BETWEEN THAT
SYSTEM AND AN APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY KEEP
LOW CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS FOG AND DRIZZLE OVER CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS MARSHFIELD MA FRI
NIGHT...BEST INDICATED BY THE NAM LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS BUT ALSO
SEEN ON THE GFS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FARTHER INLAND WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SAT. WHILE A SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
TO PUT AN END TO THE ONSHORE FLOW...WITH LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND SUNSHINE RETURNING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY
WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLER NEAR THE
COAST THOUGH. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH ON
MONDAY WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES ANOTHER BOOST. 925 MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH +8C TO +10C BY MONDAY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED
FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE...REACHING
THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S EXCEPT 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THERE NO LONGER IS ANY RISK FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THIS IS AN UNSETTLED PERIOD. MODELS AGREE THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD
AND AMPLIFIES TUE...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
SOMEWHERE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS
OCCURS EAST OF CAPE COD/NANTUCKET ON WED ALTHOUGH THE GFS
OPERATIONAL RUN IS FARTHER NORTH OFF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE. MILD WITH
SHOWERS A GOOD BET FROM LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE NIGHT.
HAVE EXTENDED THIS CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH WED BASED ON THE 00Z
ECMWF MODEL RUN. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS COULD TURN INTO A
SOAKING RAIN... ESPECIALLY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...BUT THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME OUR PROBABILITIES ONLY REFLECT 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES OF
RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TUE AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60 WED. HAVE GONE WITH THIS...HOWEVER THE ECMWF 850 MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY +4C...WHICH IS COLDER THAN THE GFS +8C...SO IT IS
POSSIBLE THE WED MAX TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

1730Z UPDATE...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRI NIGHT.

MVFR CIGS PRIMARILY ACROSS SE MA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR
CIGS /035/ POSSIBLE INTO PVD/BOS FOR A TIME. CONTINUED NE FLOW
SHOULD BRING LOWER MVFR CIGS INTO MUCH OF REGION TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. IFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS AS WELL AS HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND OVERNIGHT. PATCHY DRIZZLE
ALSO POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY NEAR COAST.

CIGS SLOWLY LIFT FRI BUT COASTAL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR FOR MUCH
OF DAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE FRI NIGHT AS W/SW FLOW SHOULD ERODE LOWER
CLOUD COVER...BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS COULD ONCE AGAIN IMPACT COASTAL
SITES.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS /035/ SOUTH
OF AIRPORT THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THE GUSTY WINDS...THE
SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT TO RELAX BELOW 5 FT. THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED
SCA ACCORDINGLY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING...LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS FOR WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF NW FLOW BEHIND A WEAK
LOW PRES TROUGH. SEAS MAY SUBSIDE BRIEFLY TO BELOW 5 FT OVER THE
OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN OF NORTHEAST WIND FLOW.
SEAS ONCE AGAIN BUILDING TO JUST ABOVE THE 5 FT THRESHOLD.

MONDAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND BECOME GUSTY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MA. THEY
COULD REACH 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MAIN STEM CT RIVER.
CREST HAS REACHED NORTHAMPTON AND IS FORECAST TO REACH
THOMPSONVILLE THIS AFTERNOON AND HARTFORD TONIGHT. MODERATE
FLOODING IS FORECAST ON LOWER REACHES NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED ALONG CT RIVER AT...

MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM

IN ADDITION...PAWCATUCK RIVER IN RI WAS NEARING CREST AT WESTERLY
AND WOOD RIVER JUNCTION. IT IS FORECAST TO CREST JUST BELOW FLOOD
STAGE LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/GAF
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...DUNTEN/GAF
HYDROLOGY...JWD




000
FXUS61 KGYX 171603
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1203 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
PRODUCE A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

1201 PM...QUIET AND COLD SPRING DAY AS SURFACE HIGH CRESTS ACROSS
THE AREA. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
MESONET FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

912 AM...AT 13Z A 1044 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
MAINE. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...SKIES WERE CLEAR ON LATEST GOES IMAGERY. AFTER A CHILLY
START...WE`LL REBOUND TO THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS TODAY WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING THINGS CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. WE TIED THE
RECORD LOW AT CONCORD THIS MORNING OF 18F SET BACK IN 1908 AND
BROKE THE RECORD AT PORTLAND WITH A LOW OF 22F ECLIPSING THE OLD
RECORD OF 24F SET BACK IN 2003. THE NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS IS PRODUCING MARGINAL GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT WHICH
IS NO SURPRISE GIVEN THE 12Z KGYX RAOB...AND I`VE EXTENDED THE
CURRENT SMALL CRAFT FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS TO LATE AFTERNOON
WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
645AM UPDATE...
SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE
SKY FORECAST TO REFLECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY... TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO
THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY... ADDING A COOL
MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT... COASTAL AREAS MAY
BE THE COLDEST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE INLAND AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER. SHOULD BE A CLEAR DAY ALTHOUGH SOME
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT... SO WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SOME RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING AS FAR AS THEY DID THIS MORNING... BUT 20S WILL BE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. RECORD LOW OF 21 AT PORTLAND AND 18 AT
CONCORD ARE LIKELY SAFE FROM BEING BROKEN THIS YEAR.

CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO WARM THINGS UP FRIDAY.
BUT AN ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP REGIONS NEAR THE COAST
COLD AGAIN. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW
50S WHILE COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. WILL ALSO SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AS THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST AT 500 MB THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO COUPLE WEAKER SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL LEVELS. MODELS SUGGESTING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
DEVELOPS MID- LATE NEXT WEEK.

FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSING N OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR LESS DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS LESS CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY WARM THINGS UP AS FLOW
SHIFTS FROM ONSHORE TO WEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND HIGHS POP
BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S
ELSEWHERE.

AFTER SOME 500MB RIDGING MOVES THRU SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WILL SEE A SOUTHERN STREAM
CLOSED LOW PASS TO OUR SE TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR SE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAPPEN
TOO FAR TO OUR S AND E TO BRING US ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION... BUT NORTHERN STREAM COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
TUESDAY... WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OR INVERTED TROUGHING
PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MARINE STRATUS TO BRING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY TO PORTSMOUTH LATER TODAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF
MARINE STRATUS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...
ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...IFR OR
LOWER IN COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT
ALL TERMINALS TO VFR BY SATURDAY EVENING. VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY-
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS CONTINUE TO GET LIGHTER WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET DROPPING TO
BELOW 5 FEET THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOMETIME THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...
GENERALLY SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH
THEY COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON AND THE ANDROSCOGGIN
AT AUBURN... WHICH ARE CRESTING EARLY THIS MORNING... ALL OTHER
RIVERS ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD. HOWEVER... IT WILL BE A SLOW FALL TO
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE CONNECTICUT... KENNEBEC AND ANDROSCOGGIN
RIVERS... WITH SOME POINTS NOT FALLING BELOW FLOOD UNTIL SOMETIME
FRIDAY. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND
PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS








000
FXUS61 KGYX 171603
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1203 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
PRODUCE A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

1201 PM...QUIET AND COLD SPRING DAY AS SURFACE HIGH CRESTS ACROSS
THE AREA. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
MESONET FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

912 AM...AT 13Z A 1044 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
MAINE. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...SKIES WERE CLEAR ON LATEST GOES IMAGERY. AFTER A CHILLY
START...WE`LL REBOUND TO THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS TODAY WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING THINGS CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. WE TIED THE
RECORD LOW AT CONCORD THIS MORNING OF 18F SET BACK IN 1908 AND
BROKE THE RECORD AT PORTLAND WITH A LOW OF 22F ECLIPSING THE OLD
RECORD OF 24F SET BACK IN 2003. THE NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS IS PRODUCING MARGINAL GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT WHICH
IS NO SURPRISE GIVEN THE 12Z KGYX RAOB...AND I`VE EXTENDED THE
CURRENT SMALL CRAFT FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS TO LATE AFTERNOON
WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
645AM UPDATE...
SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE
SKY FORECAST TO REFLECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY... TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO
THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY... ADDING A COOL
MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT... COASTAL AREAS MAY
BE THE COLDEST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE INLAND AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER. SHOULD BE A CLEAR DAY ALTHOUGH SOME
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT... SO WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SOME RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING AS FAR AS THEY DID THIS MORNING... BUT 20S WILL BE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. RECORD LOW OF 21 AT PORTLAND AND 18 AT
CONCORD ARE LIKELY SAFE FROM BEING BROKEN THIS YEAR.

CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO WARM THINGS UP FRIDAY.
BUT AN ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP REGIONS NEAR THE COAST
COLD AGAIN. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW
50S WHILE COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. WILL ALSO SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AS THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST AT 500 MB THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO COUPLE WEAKER SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL LEVELS. MODELS SUGGESTING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
DEVELOPS MID- LATE NEXT WEEK.

FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSING N OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR LESS DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS LESS CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY WARM THINGS UP AS FLOW
SHIFTS FROM ONSHORE TO WEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND HIGHS POP
BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S
ELSEWHERE.

AFTER SOME 500MB RIDGING MOVES THRU SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WILL SEE A SOUTHERN STREAM
CLOSED LOW PASS TO OUR SE TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR SE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAPPEN
TOO FAR TO OUR S AND E TO BRING US ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION... BUT NORTHERN STREAM COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
TUESDAY... WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OR INVERTED TROUGHING
PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MARINE STRATUS TO BRING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY TO PORTSMOUTH LATER TODAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF
MARINE STRATUS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...
ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...IFR OR
LOWER IN COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT
ALL TERMINALS TO VFR BY SATURDAY EVENING. VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY-
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS CONTINUE TO GET LIGHTER WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET DROPPING TO
BELOW 5 FEET THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOMETIME THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...
GENERALLY SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH
THEY COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON AND THE ANDROSCOGGIN
AT AUBURN... WHICH ARE CRESTING EARLY THIS MORNING... ALL OTHER
RIVERS ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD. HOWEVER... IT WILL BE A SLOW FALL TO
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE CONNECTICUT... KENNEBEC AND ANDROSCOGGIN
RIVERS... WITH SOME POINTS NOT FALLING BELOW FLOOD UNTIL SOMETIME
FRIDAY. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND
PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS







000
FXUS61 KBOX 171543
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1143 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. DRY AND SLOWLY WARMING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SHOWERS FROM
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...

NE FLOW PRODUCING LOW CLOUD DECK ACROSS CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. MODE
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THESE CLOUDS WILL EXPAND A BIT FARTHER
INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PROBABLY INTO PROVIDENCE TO BOSTON
CORRIDOR BUT NOT MUCH FARTHER THAN THAT. ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO
REFLECT THIS TREND.

OTHERWISE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN
40S TO AROUND 50 AND GUSTY NE WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND`S WEATHER WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WHILE A STALLED FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL STAY SUPPRESSED. THIS SET-UP WILL
CONTINUE THE EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING THE MARITIME AIR ONSHORE.
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE
BEING TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. FRIDAY ESPECIALLY LOOKS TO BE
A COLD AND DREARY DAY FROM THE NORTH SHORE DOWN TO THE
CAPE...INCLUDING BOSTON...DUE TO THE INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND
DRIZZLE.

OTHERWISE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TEMPS WILL RADIATE OUT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL DIP
AGAIN BELOW THE FREEZING MARK BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES
AS THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS ON THE 20TH OF APRIL. ON FRIDAY THE
INTERIOR WILL WARM UP WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH THE CT
VALLEY BEING THE WARM SPOT WHICH COULD MAKE A RUN TO 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CLOUDS/POSSIBLE DRIZZLE SOUTHEAST AREAS FRI NIGHT
* DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH MONDAY
* SHOWERS A GOOD BET FOR TUE INTO WED

IN GENERAL THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. FROM LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN USA.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM AND A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES SNEAKING HARMLESSLY OUT TO
SEA WELL TO OUR SOUTH. ON TUE...A NEW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES DEEPENS...FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OFF OF CAPE COD BY WED.
DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING VERY FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS. HOWEVER THE ONSHORE FLOW BETWEEN THAT
SYSTEM AND AN APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY KEEP
LOW CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS FOG AND DRIZZLE OVER CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS MARSHFIELD MA FRI
NIGHT...BEST INDICATED BY THE NAM LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS BUT ALSO
SEEN ON THE GFS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FARTHER INLAND WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SAT. WHILE A SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
TO PUT AN END TO THE ONSHORE FLOW...WITH LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND SUNSHINE RETURNING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY
WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLER NEAR THE
COAST THOUGH. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH ON
MONDAY WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES ANOTHER BOOST. 925 MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH +8C TO +10C BY MONDAY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED
FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE...REACHING
THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S EXCEPT 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THERE NO LONGER IS ANY RISK FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THIS IS AN UNSETTLED PERIOD. MODELS AGREE THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD
AND AMPLIFIES TUE...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
SOMEWHERE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS
OCCURS EAST OF CAPE COD/NANTUCKET ON WED ALTHOUGH THE GFS
OPERATIONAL RUN IS FARTHER NORTH OFF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE. MILD WITH
SHOWERS A GOOD BET FROM LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE NIGHT.
HAVE EXTENDED THIS CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH WED BASED ON THE 00Z
ECMWF MODEL RUN. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS COULD TURN INTO A
SOAKING RAIN... ESPECIALLY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...BUT THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME OUR PROBABILITIES ONLY REFLECT 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES OF
RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TUE AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60 WED. HAVE GONE WITH THIS...HOWEVER THE ECMWF 850 MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY +4C...WHICH IS COLDER THAN THE GFS +8C...SO IT IS
POSSIBLE THE WED MAX TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

14Z UPDATE...

THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND...PROBABLY INTO BOS/PVD FOR A TIME
BEFORE RETREATING BACK TO S COAST LATER IN DAY. VFR ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...CIGS MAY ONCE AGAIN LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS THE EAST
COASTLINE INCLUDING THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.
VFR ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE DROPPING THE CIGS ACROSS BOTH
COASTLINES TO MVFR. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF LOCALLY IFR AS WELL AS
FOG AND DRIZZLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...LOW TO MODERATE
PROBABILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS. VFR EXPECTED INLAND WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
MVFR IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER.

LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THE GUSTY WINDS...THE
SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT TO RELAX BELOW 5 FT. THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED
SCA ACCORDINGLY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING...LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS FOR WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF NW FLOW BEHIND A WEAK
LOW PRES TROUGH. SEAS MAY SUBSIDE BRIEFLY TO BELOW 5 FT OVER THE
OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN OF NORTHEAST WIND FLOW.
SEAS ONCE AGAIN BUILDING TO JUST ABOVE THE 5 FT THRESHOLD.

MONDAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND BECOME GUSTY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MA. THEY
COULD REACH 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MAIN STEM CT RIVER.
CREST HAS REACHED NORTHAMPTON AND IS FORECAST TO REACH
THOMPSONVILLE THIS AFTERNOON AND HARTFORD TONIGHT. MODERATE
FLOODING IS FORECAST ON LOWER REACHES NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED ALONG CT RIVER AT...

MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM

IN ADDITION...PAWCATUCK RIVER IN RI WAS NEARING CREST AT WESTERLY
AND WOOD RIVER JUNCTION. IT IS FORECAST TO CREST JUST BELOW FLOOD
STAGE LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/GAF
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...DUNTEN/GAF
HYDROLOGY...JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 171404
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1004 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. DRY AND SLOWLY WARMING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SHOWERS FROM
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...

NE FLOW PRODUCING LOW CLOUD DECK ACROSS CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. MODE
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THESE CLOUDS WILL EXPAND A BIT FARTHER
INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PROBABLY INTO PROVIDENCE TO BOSTON
CORRIDOR BUT NOT MUCH FARTHER THAN THAT. ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO
REFLECT THIS TREND.

OTHERWISE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN
40S TO AROUND 50 AND GUSTY NE WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND`S WEATHER WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WHILE A STALLED FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL STAY SUPPRESSED. THIS SET-UP WILL
CONTINUE THE EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING THE MARITIME AIR ONSHORE.
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE
BEING TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. FRIDAY ESPECIALLY LOOKS TO BE
A COLD AND DREARY DAY FROM THE NORTH SHORE DOWN TO THE
CAPE...INCLUDING BOSTON...DUE TO THE INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND
DRIZZLE.

OTHERWISE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TEMPS WILL RADIATE OUT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL DIP
AGAIN BELOW THE FREEZING MARK BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES
AS THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS ON THE 20TH OF APRIL. ON FRIDAY THE
INTERIOR WILL WARM UP WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH THE CT
VALLEY BEING THE WARM SPOT WHICH COULD MAKE A RUN TO 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CLOUDS/POSSIBLE DRIZZLE SOUTHEAST AREAS FRI NIGHT
* DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH MONDAY
* SHOWERS A GOOD BET FOR TUE INTO WED

IN GENERAL THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. FROM LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN USA.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM AND A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES SNEAKING HARMLESSLY OUT TO
SEA WELL TO OUR SOUTH. ON TUE...A NEW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES DEEPENS...FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OFF OF CAPE COD BY WED.
DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING VERY FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS. HOWEVER THE ONSHORE FLOW BETWEEN THAT
SYSTEM AND AN APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY KEEP
LOW CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS FOG AND DRIZZLE OVER CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS MARSHFIELD MA FRI
NIGHT...BEST INDICATED BY THE NAM LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS BUT ALSO
SEEN ON THE GFS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FARTHER INLAND WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SAT. WHILE A SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
TO PUT AN END TO THE ONSHORE FLOW...WITH LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND SUNSHINE RETURNING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY
WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLER NEAR THE
COAST THOUGH. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH ON
MONDAY WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES ANOTHER BOOST. 925 MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH +8C TO +10C BY MONDAY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED
FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE...REACHING
THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S EXCEPT 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THERE NO LONGER IS ANY RISK FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THIS IS AN UNSETTLED PERIOD. MODELS AGREE THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD
AND AMPLIFIES TUE...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
SOMEWHERE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS
OCCURS EAST OF CAPE COD/NANTUCKET ON WED ALTHOUGH THE GFS
OPERATIONAL RUN IS FARTHER NORTH OFF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE. MILD WITH
SHOWERS A GOOD BET FROM LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE NIGHT.
HAVE EXTENDED THIS CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH WED BASED ON THE 00Z
ECMWF MODEL RUN. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS COULD TURN INTO A
SOAKING RAIN... ESPECIALLY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...BUT THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME OUR PROBABILITIES ONLY REFLECT 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES OF
RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TUE AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60 WED. HAVE GONE WITH THIS...HOWEVER THE ECMWF 850 MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY +4C...WHICH IS COLDER THAN THE GFS +8C...SO IT IS
POSSIBLE THE WED MAX TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

14Z UPDATE...

THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND...PROBABLY INTO BOS/PVD FOR A TIME
BEFORE RETREATING BACK TO S COAST LATER IN DAY. VFR ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...CIGS MAY ONCE AGAIN LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS THE EAST
COASTLINE INCLUDING THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.
VFR ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE DROPPING THE CIGS ACROSS BOTH
COASTLINES TO MVFR. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF LOCALLY IFR AS WELL AS
FOG AND DRIZZLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...LOW TO MODERATE
PROBABILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS. VFR EXPECTED INLAND WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
MVFR IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER.

LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THE GUSTY WINDS...THE
SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT TO RELAX BELOW 5 FT. THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED
SCA ACCORDINGLY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING...LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS FOR WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF NW FLOW BEHIND A WEAK
LOW PRES TROUGH. SEAS MAY SUBSIDE BRIEFLY TO BELOW 5 FT OVER THE
OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN OF NORTHEAST WIND FLOW.
SEAS ONCE AGAIN BUILDING TO JUST ABOVE THE 5 FT THRESHOLD.

MONDAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND BECOME GUSTY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MA. THEY
COULD REACH 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...

THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AND SNOWMELT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS THE
MAINSTEM CT RIVER IN MINOR FLOOD...ALTHOUGH PROJECTED TO GO INTO
MODERATE FLOOD AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/GAF
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...DUNTEN/GAF
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KGYX 171319
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
919 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
PRODUCE A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

912 AM...AT 13Z A 1044 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
MAINE. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...SKIES WERE CLEAR ON LATEST GOES IMAGERY. AFTER A CHILLY
START...WE`LL REBOUND TO THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS TODAY WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING THINGS CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. WE TIED THE
RECORD LOW AT CONCORD THIS MORNING OF 18F SET BACK IN 1908 AND
BROKE THE RECORD AT PORTLAND WITH A LOW OF 22F ECLIPSING THE OLD
RECORD OF 24F SET BACK IN 2003. THE NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS IS PRODUCING MARGINAL GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT WHICH
IS NO SURPRISE GIVEN THE 12Z KGYX RAOB...AND I`VE EXTENDED THE
CURRENT SMALL CRAFT FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS TO LATE AFTERNOON
WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
645AM UPDATE...
SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE
SKY FORECAST TO REFLECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY... TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO
THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY... ADDING A COOL
MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT... COASTAL AREAS MAY
BE THE COLDEST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE INLAND AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER. SHOULD BE A CLEAR DAY ALTHOUGH SOME
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT... SO WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SOME RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING AS FAR AS THEY DID THIS MORNING... BUT 20S WILL BE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. RECORD LOW OF 21 AT PORTLAND AND 18 AT
CONCORD ARE LIKELY SAFE FROM BEING BROKEN THIS YEAR.

CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO WARM THINGS UP FRIDAY.
BUT AN ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP REGIONS NEAR THE COAST
COLD AGAIN. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW
50S WHILE COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. WILL ALSO SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AS THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST AT 500 MB THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO COUPLE WEAKER SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL LEVELS. MODELS SUGGESTING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
DEVELOPS MID- LATE NEXT WEEK.

FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSING N OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR LESS DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS LESS CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY WARM THINGS UP AS FLOW
SHIFTS FROM ONSHORE TO WEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND HIGHS POP
BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S
ELSEWHERE.

AFTER SOME 500MB RIDGING MOVES THRU SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WILL SEE A SOUTHERN STREAM
CLOSED LOW PASS TO OUR SE TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR SE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAPPEN
TOO FAR TO OUR S AND E TO BRING US ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION... BUT NORTHERN STREAM COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
TUESDAY... WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OR INVERTED TROUGHING
PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MARINE STRATUS TO BRING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY TO PORTSMOUTH LATER TODAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF
MARINE STRATUS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...
ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...IFR OR
LOWER IN COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT
ALL TERMINALS TO VFR BY SATURDAY EVENING. VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY-
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS CONTINUE TO GET LIGHTER WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET DROPPING TO
BELOW 5 FEET THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOMETIME THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...
GENERALLY SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH
THEY COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON AND THE ANDROSCOGGIN
AT AUBURN... WHICH ARE CRESTING EARLY THIS MORNING... ALL OTHER
RIVERS ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD. HOWEVER... IT WILL BE A SLOW FALL TO
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE CONNECTICUT... KENNEBEC AND ANDROSCOGGIN
RIVERS... WITH SOME POINTS NOT FALLING BELOW FLOOD UNTIL SOMETIME
FRIDAY. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND
PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS





000
FXUS61 KGYX 171319
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
919 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
PRODUCE A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

912 AM...AT 13Z A 1044 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
MAINE. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...SKIES WERE CLEAR ON LATEST GOES IMAGERY. AFTER A CHILLY
START...WE`LL REBOUND TO THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS TODAY WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING THINGS CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. WE TIED THE
RECORD LOW AT CONCORD THIS MORNING OF 18F SET BACK IN 1908 AND
BROKE THE RECORD AT PORTLAND WITH A LOW OF 22F ECLIPSING THE OLD
RECORD OF 24F SET BACK IN 2003. THE NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS IS PRODUCING MARGINAL GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT WHICH
IS NO SURPRISE GIVEN THE 12Z KGYX RAOB...AND I`VE EXTENDED THE
CURRENT SMALL CRAFT FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS TO LATE AFTERNOON
WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
645AM UPDATE...
SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE
SKY FORECAST TO REFLECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY... TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO
THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY... ADDING A COOL
MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT... COASTAL AREAS MAY
BE THE COLDEST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE INLAND AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER. SHOULD BE A CLEAR DAY ALTHOUGH SOME
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT... SO WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SOME RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING AS FAR AS THEY DID THIS MORNING... BUT 20S WILL BE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. RECORD LOW OF 21 AT PORTLAND AND 18 AT
CONCORD ARE LIKELY SAFE FROM BEING BROKEN THIS YEAR.

CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO WARM THINGS UP FRIDAY.
BUT AN ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP REGIONS NEAR THE COAST
COLD AGAIN. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW
50S WHILE COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. WILL ALSO SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AS THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST AT 500 MB THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO COUPLE WEAKER SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL LEVELS. MODELS SUGGESTING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
DEVELOPS MID- LATE NEXT WEEK.

FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSING N OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR LESS DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS LESS CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY WARM THINGS UP AS FLOW
SHIFTS FROM ONSHORE TO WEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND HIGHS POP
BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S
ELSEWHERE.

AFTER SOME 500MB RIDGING MOVES THRU SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WILL SEE A SOUTHERN STREAM
CLOSED LOW PASS TO OUR SE TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR SE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAPPEN
TOO FAR TO OUR S AND E TO BRING US ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION... BUT NORTHERN STREAM COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
TUESDAY... WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OR INVERTED TROUGHING
PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MARINE STRATUS TO BRING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY TO PORTSMOUTH LATER TODAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF
MARINE STRATUS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...
ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...IFR OR
LOWER IN COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT
ALL TERMINALS TO VFR BY SATURDAY EVENING. VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY-
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS CONTINUE TO GET LIGHTER WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET DROPPING TO
BELOW 5 FEET THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOMETIME THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...
GENERALLY SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH
THEY COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON AND THE ANDROSCOGGIN
AT AUBURN... WHICH ARE CRESTING EARLY THIS MORNING... ALL OTHER
RIVERS ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD. HOWEVER... IT WILL BE A SLOW FALL TO
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE CONNECTICUT... KENNEBEC AND ANDROSCOGGIN
RIVERS... WITH SOME POINTS NOT FALLING BELOW FLOOD UNTIL SOMETIME
FRIDAY. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND
PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS






000
FXUS61 KBOX 171107
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
707 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. DRY AND SLOWLY WARMING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SHOWERS FROM
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE....
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AFFECTING
PARTS OF EAST COASTAL MA EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE
WILL BE THE RULE THIS MORNING. WE WERE OFF TO A VERY CHILLY START
WITH 7 AM TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S EXCEPT MID TO
UPPER 30S ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WAS CAUSING AN INCREASINGLY TIGHT GRADIENT OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MA. WINDS WERE ALREADY GUSTING TO 30 MPH ON
NANTUCKET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE MARITIMES RESULTING IN A MORE
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE MA COASTLINE. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH
THE COOL MARITIME AIR ONSHORE RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
COASTLINE IN THE LOW 40S. A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS MAY MOVE ONSHORE
AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE INCREASING WITHIN THE COLUMN. OTHERWISE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND`S WEATHER WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WHILE A STALLED FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL STAY SUPPRESSED. THIS SET-UP WILL
CONTINUE THE EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING THE MARITIME AIR ONSHORE.
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE
BEING TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. FRIDAY ESPECIALLY LOOKS TO BE
A COLD AND DREARY DAY FROM THE NORTH SHORE DOWN TO THE
CAPE...INCLUDING BOSTON...DUE TO THE INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND
DRIZZLE.

OTHERWISE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TEMPS WILL RADIATE OUT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL DIP
AGAIN BELOW THE FREEZING MARK BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES
AS THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS ON THE 20TH OF APRIL. ON FRIDAY THE
INTERIOR WILL WARM UP WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH THE CT
VALLEY BEING THE WARM SPOT WHICH COULD MAKE A RUN TO 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CLOUDS/POSSIBLE DRIZZLE SOUTHEAST AREAS FRI NIGHT
* DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH MONDAY
* SHOWERS A GOOD BET FOR TUE INTO WED

IN GENERAL THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. FROM LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN USA.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM AND A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES SNEAKING HARMLESSLY OUT TO
SEA WELL TO OUR SOUTH. ON TUE...A NEW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES DEEPENS...FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OFF OF CAPE COD BY WED.
DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING VERY FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS. HOWEVER THE ONSHORE FLOW BETWEEN THAT
SYSTEM AND AN APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY KEEP
LOW CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS FOG AND DRIZZLE OVER CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS MARSHFIELD MA FRI
NIGHT...BEST INDICATED BY THE NAM LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS BUT ALSO
SEEN ON THE GFS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FARTHER INLAND WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SAT. WHILE A SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
TO PUT AN END TO THE ONSHORE FLOW...WITH LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND SUNSHINE RETURNING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY
WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLER NEAR THE
COAST THOUGH. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH ON
MONDAY WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES ANOTHER BOOST. 925 MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH +8C TO +10C BY MONDAY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED
FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE...REACHING
THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S EXCEPT 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THERE NO LONGER IS ANY RISK FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THIS IS AN UNSETTLED PERIOD. MODELS AGREE THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD
AND AMPLIFIES TUE...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
SOMEWHERE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS
OCCURS EAST OF CAPE COD/NANTUCKET ON WED ALTHOUGH THE GFS
OPERATIONAL RUN IS FARTHER NORTH OFF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE. MILD WITH
SHOWERS A GOOD BET FROM LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE NIGHT.
HAVE EXTENDED THIS CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH WED BASED ON THE 00Z
ECMWF MODEL RUN. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS COULD TURN INTO A
SOAKING RAIN... ESPECIALLY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...BUT THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME OUR PROBABILITIES ONLY REFLECT 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES OF
RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TUE AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60 WED. HAVE GONE WITH THIS...HOWEVER THE ECMWF 850 MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY +4C...WHICH IS COLDER THAN THE GFS +8C...SO IT IS
POSSIBLE THE WED MAX TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE...VFR. INCREASING NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS...STRONGEST ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. THERE IS A RISK OF
CIGS IN THE 3000-3500 FT RANGE ACROSS EASTERN MA COAST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE...VFR TO START. CIGS MAY BUILD AND DROP
TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST COASTLINE INCLUDING THE CAPE
AND THE ISLANDS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
DROPPING THE CIGS ACROSS BOTH COASTLINES TO MVFR. THERE IS A LOW
PROB OF LOCALLY IFR AS WELL AS FOG AND DRIZZLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...LOW TO MODERATE
PROBABILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS. VFR EXPECTED INLAND WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
MVFR IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER.

LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THE GUSTY WINDS...THE
SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT TO RELAX BELOW 5 FT. THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED
SCA ACCORDINGLY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING...LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS FOR WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF NW FLOW BEHIND A WEAK
LOW PRES TROUGH. SEAS MAY SUBSIDE BRIEFLY TO BELOW 5 FT OVER THE
OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN OF NORTHEAST WIND FLOW.
SEAS ONCE AGAIN BUILDING TO JUST ABOVE THE 5 FT THRESHOLD.

MONDAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND BECOME GUSTY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MA. THEY
COULD REACH 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...

THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AND SNOWMELT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS THE
MAINSTEM CT RIVER IN MINOR FLOOD...ALTHOUGH PROJECTED TO GO INTO
MODERATE FLOOD AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/FIELD
NEAR TERM...FIELD/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...FIELD
AVIATION...DUNTEN/FIELD
MARINE...DUNTEN/FIELD
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KGYX 171044
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
644 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY...PRODUCING A COOL ONSHORE FLOW. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
645AM UPDATE...
SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE
SKY FORECAST TO REFLECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY... TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO
THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY... ADDING A COOL
MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT... COASTAL AREAS MAY
BE THE COLDEST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE INLAND AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER. SHOULD BE A CLEAR DAY ALTHOUGH SOME
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT... SO WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SOME RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING AS FAR AS THEY DID THIS MORNING... BUT 20S WILL BE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. RECORD LOW OF 21 AT PORTLAND AND 18 AT
CONCORD ARE LIKELY SAFE FROM BEING BROKEN THIS YEAR.

CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO WARM THINGS UP FRIDAY.
BUT AN ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP REGIONS NEAR THE COAST
COLD AGAIN. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW
50S WHILE COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. WILL ALSO SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AS THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST AT 500 MB THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO COUPLE WEAKER SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL LEVELS. MODELS SUGGESTING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
DEVELOPS MID- LATE NEXT WEEK.

FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSING N OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR LESS DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS LESS CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY WARM THINGS UP AS FLOW
SHIFTS FROM ONSHORE TO WEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND HIGHS POP
BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S
ELSEWHERE.

AFTER SOME 500MB RIDGING MOVES THRU SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WILL SEE A SOUTHERN STREAM
CLOSED LOW PASS TO OUR SE TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR SE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAPPEN
TOO FAR TO OUR S AND E TO BRING US ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION... BUT NORTHERN STREAM COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
TUESDAY... WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OR INVERTED TROUGHING
PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MARINE STRATUS TO BRING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY TO PORTSMOUTH LATER TODAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF
MARINE STRATUS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...
ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...IFR OR
LOWER IN COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT
ALL TERMINALS TO VFR BY SATURDAY EVENING. VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY-
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS CONTINUE TO GET LIGHTER WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET DROPPING TO
BELOW 5 FEET THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOMETIME THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...
GENERALLY SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH
THEY COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON AND THE ANDROSCOGGIN
AT AUBURN... WHICH ARE CRESTING EARLY THIS MORNING... ALL OTHER
RIVERS ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD. HOWEVER... IT WILL BE A SLOW FALL TO
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE CONNECTICUT... KENNEBEC AND ANDROSCOGGIN
RIVERS... WITH SOME POINTS NOT FALLING BELOW FLOOD UNTIL SOMETIME
FRIDAY. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND
PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEMPA
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/KIMBLE
MARINE...CEMPA/KIMBLE
HYDROLOGY...CEMPA






000
FXUS61 KGYX 171044
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
644 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY...PRODUCING A COOL ONSHORE FLOW. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
645AM UPDATE...
SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE
SKY FORECAST TO REFLECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY... TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO
THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY... ADDING A COOL
MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT... COASTAL AREAS MAY
BE THE COLDEST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE INLAND AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER. SHOULD BE A CLEAR DAY ALTHOUGH SOME
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT... SO WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SOME RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING AS FAR AS THEY DID THIS MORNING... BUT 20S WILL BE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. RECORD LOW OF 21 AT PORTLAND AND 18 AT
CONCORD ARE LIKELY SAFE FROM BEING BROKEN THIS YEAR.

CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO WARM THINGS UP FRIDAY.
BUT AN ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP REGIONS NEAR THE COAST
COLD AGAIN. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW
50S WHILE COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. WILL ALSO SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AS THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST AT 500 MB THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO COUPLE WEAKER SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL LEVELS. MODELS SUGGESTING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
DEVELOPS MID- LATE NEXT WEEK.

FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSING N OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR LESS DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS LESS CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY WARM THINGS UP AS FLOW
SHIFTS FROM ONSHORE TO WEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND HIGHS POP
BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S
ELSEWHERE.

AFTER SOME 500MB RIDGING MOVES THRU SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WILL SEE A SOUTHERN STREAM
CLOSED LOW PASS TO OUR SE TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR SE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAPPEN
TOO FAR TO OUR S AND E TO BRING US ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION... BUT NORTHERN STREAM COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
TUESDAY... WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OR INVERTED TROUGHING
PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MARINE STRATUS TO BRING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY TO PORTSMOUTH LATER TODAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF
MARINE STRATUS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...
ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...IFR OR
LOWER IN COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT
ALL TERMINALS TO VFR BY SATURDAY EVENING. VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY-
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS CONTINUE TO GET LIGHTER WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET DROPPING TO
BELOW 5 FEET THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOMETIME THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...
GENERALLY SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH
THEY COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON AND THE ANDROSCOGGIN
AT AUBURN... WHICH ARE CRESTING EARLY THIS MORNING... ALL OTHER
RIVERS ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD. HOWEVER... IT WILL BE A SLOW FALL TO
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE CONNECTICUT... KENNEBEC AND ANDROSCOGGIN
RIVERS... WITH SOME POINTS NOT FALLING BELOW FLOOD UNTIL SOMETIME
FRIDAY. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND
PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEMPA
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/KIMBLE
MARINE...CEMPA/KIMBLE
HYDROLOGY...CEMPA






000
FXUS61 KGYX 171044
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
644 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY...PRODUCING A COOL ONSHORE FLOW. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
645AM UPDATE...
SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE
SKY FORECAST TO REFLECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY... TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO
THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY... ADDING A COOL
MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT... COASTAL AREAS MAY
BE THE COLDEST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE INLAND AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER. SHOULD BE A CLEAR DAY ALTHOUGH SOME
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT... SO WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SOME RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING AS FAR AS THEY DID THIS MORNING... BUT 20S WILL BE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. RECORD LOW OF 21 AT PORTLAND AND 18 AT
CONCORD ARE LIKELY SAFE FROM BEING BROKEN THIS YEAR.

CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO WARM THINGS UP FRIDAY.
BUT AN ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP REGIONS NEAR THE COAST
COLD AGAIN. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW
50S WHILE COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. WILL ALSO SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AS THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST AT 500 MB THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO COUPLE WEAKER SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL LEVELS. MODELS SUGGESTING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
DEVELOPS MID- LATE NEXT WEEK.

FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSING N OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR LESS DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS LESS CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY WARM THINGS UP AS FLOW
SHIFTS FROM ONSHORE TO WEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND HIGHS POP
BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S
ELSEWHERE.

AFTER SOME 500MB RIDGING MOVES THRU SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WILL SEE A SOUTHERN STREAM
CLOSED LOW PASS TO OUR SE TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR SE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAPPEN
TOO FAR TO OUR S AND E TO BRING US ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION... BUT NORTHERN STREAM COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
TUESDAY... WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OR INVERTED TROUGHING
PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MARINE STRATUS TO BRING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY TO PORTSMOUTH LATER TODAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF
MARINE STRATUS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...
ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...IFR OR
LOWER IN COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT
ALL TERMINALS TO VFR BY SATURDAY EVENING. VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY-
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS CONTINUE TO GET LIGHTER WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET DROPPING TO
BELOW 5 FEET THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOMETIME THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...
GENERALLY SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH
THEY COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON AND THE ANDROSCOGGIN
AT AUBURN... WHICH ARE CRESTING EARLY THIS MORNING... ALL OTHER
RIVERS ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD. HOWEVER... IT WILL BE A SLOW FALL TO
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE CONNECTICUT... KENNEBEC AND ANDROSCOGGIN
RIVERS... WITH SOME POINTS NOT FALLING BELOW FLOOD UNTIL SOMETIME
FRIDAY. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND
PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEMPA
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/KIMBLE
MARINE...CEMPA/KIMBLE
HYDROLOGY...CEMPA






000
FXUS61 KGYX 171044
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
644 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY...PRODUCING A COOL ONSHORE FLOW. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
645AM UPDATE...
SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE
SKY FORECAST TO REFLECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY... TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO
THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY... ADDING A COOL
MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT... COASTAL AREAS MAY
BE THE COLDEST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE INLAND AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER. SHOULD BE A CLEAR DAY ALTHOUGH SOME
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT... SO WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SOME RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING AS FAR AS THEY DID THIS MORNING... BUT 20S WILL BE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. RECORD LOW OF 21 AT PORTLAND AND 18 AT
CONCORD ARE LIKELY SAFE FROM BEING BROKEN THIS YEAR.

CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO WARM THINGS UP FRIDAY.
BUT AN ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP REGIONS NEAR THE COAST
COLD AGAIN. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW
50S WHILE COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. WILL ALSO SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AS THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST AT 500 MB THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO COUPLE WEAKER SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL LEVELS. MODELS SUGGESTING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
DEVELOPS MID- LATE NEXT WEEK.

FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSING N OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR LESS DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS LESS CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY WARM THINGS UP AS FLOW
SHIFTS FROM ONSHORE TO WEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND HIGHS POP
BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S
ELSEWHERE.

AFTER SOME 500MB RIDGING MOVES THRU SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WILL SEE A SOUTHERN STREAM
CLOSED LOW PASS TO OUR SE TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR SE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAPPEN
TOO FAR TO OUR S AND E TO BRING US ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION... BUT NORTHERN STREAM COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
TUESDAY... WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OR INVERTED TROUGHING
PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MARINE STRATUS TO BRING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY TO PORTSMOUTH LATER TODAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF
MARINE STRATUS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...
ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...IFR OR
LOWER IN COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT
ALL TERMINALS TO VFR BY SATURDAY EVENING. VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY-
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS CONTINUE TO GET LIGHTER WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET DROPPING TO
BELOW 5 FEET THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOMETIME THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...
GENERALLY SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH
THEY COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON AND THE ANDROSCOGGIN
AT AUBURN... WHICH ARE CRESTING EARLY THIS MORNING... ALL OTHER
RIVERS ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD. HOWEVER... IT WILL BE A SLOW FALL TO
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE CONNECTICUT... KENNEBEC AND ANDROSCOGGIN
RIVERS... WITH SOME POINTS NOT FALLING BELOW FLOOD UNTIL SOMETIME
FRIDAY. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND
PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEMPA
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/KIMBLE
MARINE...CEMPA/KIMBLE
HYDROLOGY...CEMPA






000
FXUS61 KBOX 170844
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
444 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. DRY AND SLOWLY WARMING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SHOWERS FROM
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
430 AM UPDATE....
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CRESTING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP OVER THE
WATERS KEEPING COASTAL COMMUNITIES FROM RADIATING OUT THIS
MORNING. OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
20S...WHICH IS ALMOST 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SEVERAL SITES ARE
CLOSE TO HITTING THEIR RECORD LOW AS OF 400 AM. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR TO SEE IF THEY DIP A FEW MORE DEGREES TO BREAK THEIR
RECORD.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE MARITIMES RESULTING IN A MORE
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE MA COASTLINE. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PUSH THE COOL MARITIME AIR ONSHORE RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE COASTLINE IN THE LOW 40S. A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS MAY MOVE
ONSHORE AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE INCREASING WITHIN THE COLUMN.
OTHERWISE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND`S WEATHER WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WHILE A STALLED FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL STAY SUPPRESSED. THIS SET-UP WILL
CONTINUE THE EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING THE MARITIME AIR ONSHORE.
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE
BEING TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. FRIDAY ESPECIALLY LOOKS TO BE
A COLD AND DREARY DAY FROM THE NORTH SHORE DOWN TO THE
CAPE...INCLUDING BOSTON...DUE TO THE INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND
DRIZZLE.

OTHERWISE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TEMPS WILL RADIATE OUT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL DIP
AGAIN BELOW THE FREEZING MARK BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES
AS THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS ON THE 20TH OF APRIL. ON FRIDAY THE
INTERIOR WILL WARM UP WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH THE CT
VALLEY BEING THE WARM SPOT WHICH COULD MAKE A RUN TO 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* CLOUDS/POSSIBLE DRIZZLE SOUTHEAST AREAS FRI NIGHT
* DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH MONDAY
* SHOWERS A GOOD BET FOR TUE INTO WED

IN GENERAL THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. FROM LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN USA.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM AND A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES SNEAKING HARMLESSLY OUT TO
SEA WELL TO OUR SOUTH. ON TUE...A NEW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES DEEPENS...FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OFF OF CAPE COD BY WED.
DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING VERY FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS. HOWEVER THE ONSHORE FLOW BETWEEN THAT
SYSTEM AND AN APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY KEEP
LOW CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS FOG AND DRIZZLE OVER CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS MARSHFIELD MA FRI
NIGHT...BEST INDICATED BY THE NAM LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS BUT ALSO
SEEN ON THE GFS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FARTHER INLAND WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SAT. WHILE A SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
TO PUT AN END TO THE ONSHORE FLOW...WITH LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND SUNSHINE RETURNING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY
WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLER NEAR THE
COAST THOUGH. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH ON
MONDAY WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES ANOTHER BOOST. 925 MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH +8C TO +10C BY MONDAY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED
FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE...REACHING
THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S EXCEPT 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THERE NO LONGER IS ANY RISK FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THIS IS AN UNSETTLED PERIOD. MODELS AGREE THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD
AND AMPLIFIES TUE...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
SOMEWHERE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS
OCCURS EAST OF CAPE COD/NANTUCKET ON WED ALTHOUGH THE GFS
OPERATIONAL RUN IS FARTHER NORTH OFF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE. MILD WITH
SHOWERS A GOOD BET FROM LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE NIGHT.
HAVE EXTENDED THIS CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH WED BASED ON THE 00Z
ECMWF MODEL RUN. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS COULD TURN INTO A
SOAKING RAIN... ESPECIALLY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...BUT THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME OUR PROBABILITIES ONLY REFLECT 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES OF
RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TUE AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60 WED. HAVE GONE WITH THIS...HOWEVER THE ECMWF 850 MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY +4C...WHICH IS COLDER THAN THE GFS +8C...SO IT IS
POSSIBLE THE WED MAX TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. LOW PROBABILITY OF
SOME MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE...VFR. INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS. THERE
IS A RISK OF SCT LOW-VFR CIGS ACROSS EAST COASTLINE.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE...VFR TO START. CIGS MAY BUILD AND DROP
TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST COASTLINE INCLUDING THE CAPE
AND THE ISLANDS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
DROPPING THE CIGS ACROSS BOTH COASTLINES TO MVFR. THERE IS A LOW
PROB OF LOCALLY IFR AS WELL AS FOG AND DRIZZLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...LOW TO MODERATE
PROBABILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS. VFR EXPECTED INLAND WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
MVFR IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER.

LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THE GUSTY WINDS...THE
SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT TO RELAX BELOW 5 FT. THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED
SCA ACCORDINGLY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING...LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS FOR WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF NW FLOW BEHIND A WEAK
LOW PRES TROUGH. SEAS MAY SUBSIDE BRIEFLY TO BELOW 5 FT OVER THE
OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN OF NORTHEAST WIND FLOW.
SEAS ONCE AGAIN BUILDING TO JUST ABOVE THE 5 FT THRESHOLD.

MONDAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND BECOME GUSTY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MA. THEY
COULD REACH 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...

THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AND SNOWMELT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS THE
MAINSTEM CT RIVER IN MINOR FLOOD...ALTHOUGH PROJECTED TO GO INTO
MODERATE FLOOD AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/FIELD
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...FIELD
AVIATION...DUNTEN/FIELD
MARINE...DUNTEN/FIELD
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 170803
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
403 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

430 AM UPDATE....
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CRESTING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP OVER THE
WAVERS KEEPING COASTAL COMMUNITIES FROM RADIATING OUT THIS
MORNING. OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
20S...WHICH IS ALMOST 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SEVERAL SITES ARE
CLOSE TO HITTING THEIR RECORD LOW AS OF 400AM. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR TO SEE IF THEY DIP A FEW MORE DEGREES TO BREAK THEIR
RECORD.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE MARITIMES TODAY RESULTING IN
A MORE ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE MASS COASTLINE. THIS EASTERLY FLOW
WILL PUSH THE COOL MARITIME AIR ONSHORE RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COASTLINE IN THE LOW 40S. A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS MAY
MOVE ONSHORE AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE INCREASING WITHIN THE
COLUMN. OTHERWISE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND`S WEATHER WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WHILE A STALLED FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL STAY SUPPRESSED. THIS SET-UP WILL
CONTINUE THE EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING THE MARITIME AIR ONSHORE.
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE
BEING TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. FRIDAY ESPECIALLY LOOKS TO BE
A COLD AND DREARY DAY FROM THE NORTH SHORE DOWN TO THE
CAPE...INCLUDING BOSTON...DUE TO THE INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND
DRIZZLE.

OTHERWISE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TEMPS WILL RADIATE OUT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL DIP
AGAIN BELOW THE FREEZING MARK BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES
AS THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS ON THE 20TH OF APRIL. ON FRIDAY THE
INTERIOR WILL WARM UP WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH THE CT
VALLEY BEING THE WARM SPOT WHICH COULD MAKE A RUN TO 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NEAR THE COAST ON FRI...OTHERWISE SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURN
* FEW SHOWERS COULD BRUSH THE CAPE AND ISLANDS SAT
  MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH MON
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE EVENING

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONTERMINOUS USA WITH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INFLUENCED MOSTLY BY THE NORTHERN STREAM. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DEPICT REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN LARGE SCALE PATTERN BUT WITH
SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND CONFIGURATION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST AN AMPLIFICATION TO THE
FLOW TOWARD THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND
GFS DEPICT MILDER 850 MB TEMPS COMPARED WITH THE LAST FEW PRIOR
RUNS.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER REGION BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD KEEP BOTH
EAST AND SOUTH COASTS QUITE CHILLY GIVEN OCEAN TEMPS STILL IN THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER
HERE AND THERE BUT KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE MOST AREA.
THERE DOES SEEM TO BE JUST ENOUGH OF A RISK FOR A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO BRUSH THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AND DID KEEP A LOW
CHANCE POP THERE. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER THE RAIN
SHIELD WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE SOUTH COAST. AS BOTH THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY GETS EMBEDDED INTO
THE DENSER UPPER AIR NETWORK...CONFIDENCE SHOULD GROW ON THE
EVENTUAL SOLUTION.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MON MORNING
AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF STILL REMAINING DRY THROUGH MON
AFTERNOON. OVERRUNNING WARM AIR AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INTO FORECAST AREA MON
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...BUT LIKELY
REMAINING DRY IN OUR AREA. SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW COMBINED WITH
850 MB TEMPS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 6C TO 8C MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S TO THE EAST COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BRINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
TUE. THERE IS ALSO SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY THAT MAY OR MAY
NOT REMAIN DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN FLOW. FOR NOW THINK QPF WILL
BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHOULD END UP PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM.

WEDNESDAY...

DRY AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR FOLLOWS IN THE N TO NW FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE APRIL SUN AND DOWNSLOPING SHOULD
TEMPER THE IMPACT FROM COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WITH HIGHS PROBABLY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. LOW PROBABILITY OF
SOME MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE...VFR. INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS. THERE
IS A RISK OF SCT LOW-VFR CIGS ACROSS EAST COASTLINE.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE...VFR TO START. CIGS MAY BUILD AND DROP
TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST COASTLINE INCLUDING THE CAPE
AND THE ISLANDS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
DROPPING THE CIGS ACROSS BOTH COASTLINES TO MVFR. THERE IS A LOW
PROB OF LOCALLY IFR AS WELL AS FOG AND DRIZZLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF A PYM-WST LINE.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THE GUSTY WINDS...THE SEAS
WILL TAKE A BIT TO RELAX BELOW 5FT. THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED SCA
ACCORDINGLY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING...PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW DUE TO
OFFSHORE LOW PRES MAY KEEP SEAS ELEVATED INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...NW FLOW BEHIND LOW PRES THAT FORMS ON
COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MON MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS
ANTICIPATED.

MON AFTERNOON...INCREASING SW FLOW AND FETCH MAY CAUSE WINDS AND
SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OF 25 KT GUSTS AT
LEAST ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FETCH TO
BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET OR MORE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...

THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AND SNOWMELT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS THE
MAINSTEM CT RIVER IN MINOR FLOOD...ALTHOUGH PROJECTED TO GO INTO
MODERATE FLOOD AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
MARINE...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KGYX 170711
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
311 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY...PRODUCING A COOL ONSHORE FLOW. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY... TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO
THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY... ADDING A COOL
MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT... COASTAL AREAS MAY
BE THE COLDEST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE INLAND AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER. SHOULD BE A CLEAR DAY ALTHOUGH SOME
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT... SO WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SOME RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING AS FAR AS THEY DID THIS MORNING... BUT 20S WILL BE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. RECORD LOW OF 21 AT PORTLAND AND 18 AT
CONCORD ARE LIKELY SAFE FROM BEING BROKEN THIS YEAR.

CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO WARM THINGS UP FRIDAY.
BUT AN ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP REGIONS NEAR THE COAST
COLD AGAIN. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW
50S WHILE COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. WILL ALSO SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AS THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST AT 500 MB THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO COUPLE WEAKER SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL LEVELS. MODELS SUGGESTING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
DEVELOPS MID- LATE NEXT WEEK.

FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSING N OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR LESS DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS LESS CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY WARM THINGS UP AS FLOW
SHIFTS FROM ONSHORE TO WEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND HIGHS POP
BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S
ELSEWHERE.

AFTER SOME 500MB RIDGING MOVES THRU SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WILL SEE A SOUTHERN STREAM
CLOSED LOW PASS TO OUR SE TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR SE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAPPEN
TOO FAR TO OUR S AND E TO BRING US ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION... BUT NORTHERN STREAM COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
TUESDAY... WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OR INVERTED TROUGHING
PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MARINE STRATUS TO BRING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY TO PORTSMOUTH LATER TODAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF
MARINE STRATUS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...
ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...IFR OR
LOWER IN COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT
ALL TERMINALS TO VFR BY SATURDAY EVENING. VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY-
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS CONTINUE TO GET LIGHTER WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET DROPPING TO
BELOW 5 FEET THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOMETIME THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...
GENERALLY SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH
THEY COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON AND THE ANDROSCOGGIN
AT AUBURN... WHICH ARE CRESTING EARLY THIS MORNING... ALL OTHER
RIVERS ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD. HOWEVER... IT WILL BE A SLOW FALL TO
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE CONNECTICUT... KENNEBEC AND ANDROSCOGGIN
RIVERS... WITH SOME POINTS NOT FALLING BELOW FLOOD UNTIL SOMETIME
FRIDAY. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND
PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEMPA
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/KIMBLE
MARINE...CEMPA/KIMBLE
HYDROLOGY...CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 170711
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
311 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY...PRODUCING A COOL ONSHORE FLOW. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY... TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO
THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY... ADDING A COOL
MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT... COASTAL AREAS MAY
BE THE COLDEST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE INLAND AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER. SHOULD BE A CLEAR DAY ALTHOUGH SOME
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT... SO WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SOME RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING AS FAR AS THEY DID THIS MORNING... BUT 20S WILL BE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. RECORD LOW OF 21 AT PORTLAND AND 18 AT
CONCORD ARE LIKELY SAFE FROM BEING BROKEN THIS YEAR.

CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO WARM THINGS UP FRIDAY.
BUT AN ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP REGIONS NEAR THE COAST
COLD AGAIN. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW
50S WHILE COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. WILL ALSO SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AS THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST AT 500 MB THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO COUPLE WEAKER SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL LEVELS. MODELS SUGGESTING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
DEVELOPS MID- LATE NEXT WEEK.

FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSING N OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR LESS DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS LESS CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY WARM THINGS UP AS FLOW
SHIFTS FROM ONSHORE TO WEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND HIGHS POP
BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S
ELSEWHERE.

AFTER SOME 500MB RIDGING MOVES THRU SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WILL SEE A SOUTHERN STREAM
CLOSED LOW PASS TO OUR SE TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR SE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAPPEN
TOO FAR TO OUR S AND E TO BRING US ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION... BUT NORTHERN STREAM COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
TUESDAY... WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OR INVERTED TROUGHING
PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MARINE STRATUS TO BRING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY TO PORTSMOUTH LATER TODAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF
MARINE STRATUS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...
ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...IFR OR
LOWER IN COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT
ALL TERMINALS TO VFR BY SATURDAY EVENING. VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY-
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS CONTINUE TO GET LIGHTER WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET DROPPING TO
BELOW 5 FEET THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOMETIME THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...
GENERALLY SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH
THEY COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON AND THE ANDROSCOGGIN
AT AUBURN... WHICH ARE CRESTING EARLY THIS MORNING... ALL OTHER
RIVERS ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD. HOWEVER... IT WILL BE A SLOW FALL TO
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE CONNECTICUT... KENNEBEC AND ANDROSCOGGIN
RIVERS... WITH SOME POINTS NOT FALLING BELOW FLOOD UNTIL SOMETIME
FRIDAY. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND
PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEMPA
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/KIMBLE
MARINE...CEMPA/KIMBLE
HYDROLOGY...CEMPA





000
FXUS61 KBOX 170557
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
157 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

200 AM UPDATE...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE HAS ALLOWED FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR....YIELDING TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. CLOSER
TO THE COASTLINE...COLD AIRMASS OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP THE
WINDS UP AND LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DECOUPLING ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO
STAY ABOVE 32F. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH TO THE EAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS TO STREAM IN ACROSS THE CAPE. HAVE
UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

KEEP IN MIND THAT THE GROWING SEASON FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH-
COAST DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL APRIL 20TH...SO THERE WILL BE NO FREEZE
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRES SHIFTS NORTHEAST AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES
AND ACCOMPANYING STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH.
TIGHTENING PRES-GRADIENT LENDS TO INCREASING EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.
THE LONG FETCH OFF THE COLDER WATERS WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY DAY FOR
THE EASTERN-COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH A DRY-AIR
INVERSION COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING PER SUNSHINE SHOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECKS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. OTHERWISE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR EXPECT A MILDER DAY AS THE COLDER AIRMASS ALOFT
RETREATS NORTH WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER-40S TO
LOW-50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

STALLED OFFSHORE FRONT TO THE SOUTH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH IN RESPONSE
TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ALONG WITH A CONTINUED
BREEZY ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW...CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPS LOWS ALONG THE COASTLINE AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WHILE
ELSEWHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-20S. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL LIMIT EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING THOUGH SHELTERED VALLEYS
OVER N/W NEW ENGLAND MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NEAR THE COAST ON FRI...OTHERWISE SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURN
* FEW SHOWERS COULD BRUSH THE CAPE AND ISLANDS SAT
  MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH MON
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE EVENING

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONTERMINOUS USA WITH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INFLUENCED MOSTLY BY THE NORTHERN STREAM. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DEPICT REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN LARGE SCALE PATTERN BUT WITH
SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND CONFIGURATION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST AN AMPLIFICATION TO THE
FLOW TOWARD THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND
GFS DEPICT MILDER 850 MB TEMPS COMPARED WITH THE LAST FEW PRIOR
RUNS.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER REGION BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD KEEP BOTH
EAST AND SOUTH COASTS QUITE CHILLY GIVEN OCEAN TEMPS STILL IN THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER
HERE AND THERE BUT KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE MOST AREA.
THERE DOES SEEM TO BE JUST ENOUGH OF A RISK FOR A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO BRUSH THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AND DID KEEP A LOW
CHANCE POP THERE. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER THE RAIN
SHIELD WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE SOUTH COAST. AS BOTH THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY GETS EMBEDDED INTO
THE DENSER UPPER AIR NETWORK...CONFIDENCE SHOULD GROW ON THE
EVENTUAL SOLUTION.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MON MORNING
AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF STILL REMAINING DRY THROUGH MON
AFTERNOON. OVERRUNNING WARM AIR AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INTO FORECAST AREA MON
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...BUT LIKELY
REMAINING DRY IN OUR AREA. SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW COMBINED WITH
850 MB TEMPS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 6C TO 8C MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S TO THE EAST COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BRINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
TUE. THERE IS ALSO SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY THAT MAY OR MAY
NOT REMAIN DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN FLOW. FOR NOW THINK QPF WILL
BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHOULD END UP PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM.

WEDNESDAY...

DRY AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR FOLLOWS IN THE N TO NW FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE APRIL SUN AND DOWNSLOPING SHOULD
TEMPER THE IMPACT FROM COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WITH HIGHS PROBABLY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. LOW PROBABILITY OF
SOME MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE...VFR. INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS. THERE
IS A RISK OF SCT LOW-VFR CIGS ACROSS EAST COASTLINE.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE...VFR TO START. CIGS MAY BUILD AND DROP
TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST COASTLINE INCLUDING THE CAPE
AND THE ISLANDS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
DROPPING THE CIGS ACROSS BOTH COASTLINES TO MVFR. THERE IS A LOW
PROB OF LOCALLY IFR AS WELL AS FOG AND DRIZZLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF A PYM-WST LINE.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH  OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BUT SEAS WILL
TAKE LONG TO SUBSIDE AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED TO
REMAIN THROUGH THU AND POSSIBLY INTO THU EVENING OUTSIDE OF
HARBORS...BAYS AND SOME SOUNDS. SEAS EXPECTED TO PERSIST 6 TO 8
FEET ACROSS OUTER WATERS INTO THU. SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME
IN RESPONSE TO ESPECIALLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO
MARITIMES AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF MID ATLC COAST.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI THROUGH SAT MORNING...PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW DUE TO OFFSHORE
LOW PRES MAY KEEP SEAS ELEVATED INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...NW FLOW BEHIND LOW PRES THAT FORMS ON
COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MON MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS
ANTICIPATED.

MON AFTERNOON...INCREASING SW FLOW AND FETCH MAY CAUSE WINDS AND
SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OF 25 KT GUSTS AT
LEAST ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FETCH TO
BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET OR MORE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...

THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND SNOWMELT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS THE
MAINSTEM CT RIVER IN MINOR FLOOD...ALTHOUGH PROJECTED TO GO INTO
MODERATE FLOOD AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
MARINE...SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
HYDROLOGY...




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